Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

re: Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

racing fan — Thu, 22 May 2008 21:47:29 GMT

Lord Carson, I agree with Jill. And he doesn't just have Nureyev in there, but also Danzig. And look up a pic of Danehill....look like anyone you've seen recently? In the inexact 'science' of breeding, you just don't know how the genetic 'tumblers' are going to fall along that line of DNA...Natalma 'danced' with Neartic 5 times, but only produced one Northern Dancer. What might be making this horse special is Special...producer of Fairy Bridge..producer of Sadler's Wells. Who knows what the double dose of ND in the 3rd gen might do. He might just jump up and become another ND in the breeding shed (wouldn't that be awesome)

To sum up, I see lots!! of blue in that blood to nick with. :)

GO Big Brown!

re: Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

Janesville Liz — Wed, 21 May 2008 17:50:27 GMT

I think Big Brown will do very well at Three Chimneys. I know the seasons and matings adviser at the farm, Anne Peters, and if there is anything about pedigrees she does not know, then it is not worth knowing. She is an expert, and she will work hard to make sure that Big Brown gets mares whose pedigrees and race and produce records mesh well with his. He could not be in better hands.

re: Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

Jill — Tue, 20 May 2008 17:51:00 GMT

Lord Carson, while I agree with much of what you said, keep in mind that Brown's dam sire is one of the great stallions you mention. Indeed, his bottom line is far better than his sire line, and is most likely why he is the racehorse he is.

re: Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

Lord Carson — Tue, 20 May 2008 14:04:01 GMT

The Big Brown deal really is a big leap by Three Chimneys when you consider how modestly bred Big Brown is. He is not exactly a ham sandwich, but he is no blueblood either. Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time, but it's much harder to overcome a modest pedigree in the breeding shed. If you look at the modern elite sires like Storm Cat, Sadler's Wells, Nureyev, Seeking The Gold, A.P. Indy, Kingmambo, Gone West, Danzig, Danehill etc they all have fantastic pedigrees. You would be hard pressed to find an elite stallion these days with modest breeding. It's all about bloodlines in the breeding shed. In recent times the only modestly bred horse that I can remember that ascended to be a great stallion was Seattle Slew, who ironically spent his last years at Three Chimneys. Another superstar of the seventies - Spectacular Bid, was a $20 million stallion with less than stellar bloodlines and he was a major disappointment at stud. Alydar was a blueblood, Affirmed was not. Affirmed won the battle on the track, Alydar dominated the battle at stud. All the evidence shows that Big Brown will be up against it in his second career.

On the other hand here is why it's a great deal for Three Chimneys. Big Brown is a highly marketable stallion right now. If he wins the Triple Crown a lot of mare owners will be lined up to breed to him regardless of the stud fee. (Probably $150k-$200k or even higher when you consider Street Sense is $75k and he only won the Derby). Even if he doesn't win the Belmont his initial stud fee will be $100k plus. Now his foals don't hit the track till 2012 and we won't have any valid empirical evidence on the racing ability of his progeny till about 2013 or 2014 with his second and third crops. That is plenty of time for Three Chimneys and their investors to recover a significant portion or even all of their initial investment based solely on the Big Brown hype. Even if the horse doesn't live up to the expectations a profit is almost guaranteed, and if he does become a major stallion it's a financial windfall. This is why stud farms are willing to pay major bucks for even modestly bred horses like Big Brown, Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex. The marketability of the animal is as important as the pedigree. Initially anyway. You see the thing is, to try and recover as much of the initial investment before the sire's foals hit the track. So next time you think $50-$60 million dollars for a stallion is crazy. Remember it's not as big a gamble as you think. And it sure is a hell of a lot less risky than $10 million for a yearling.

What do you think about the deal Dan?

re: Big Leap - by Dan Liebman

goodwin — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:16:02 GMT

Thankfully, Big Brown is not going to foreign ownership. IEAH has made a great decision for the well-being of its horse in the years to come!