Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 10:07:02 GMT

I don't believe in giving extra credit for being unbeaten on the year - it usually means the horse hasn't run against the toughest possible competition more than once if at all. These horses are not Slews or Affirmeds or Bids or Ack Acks. Winning one big race is enough to get a horse called 'great' these days, it seems.

Tonalist and VE Day are 'one-hit wonders' at this point. And, as a 3yo, so is Shared Belief. People seem to love to get carried away by speculation these days; I guess it comes from the better horses not running against each other frequently the way they used to. Without much data to rely on, our imaginations are free to dream up all sorts of scenarios. Then to argue endlessly about whose scenario is the right one.

I liked it better when things were settled on the track. Affirmed finished in front of Alydar every time at 3; Alydar could only get a 'win' over him with a DQ: Affirmed was the champ. Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer 3 times on neutral tracks, Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence once on his home track: Sunday Silence is the champ. Clean and simple.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Harrison — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 03:39:43 GMT

Coldfacts: I share your opinion and I also think too many are ignoring Wicked Strong & V.E.Day. Tonalist was always overrated and obviously needs long lay-offs between efforts to be successful. Shared Belief's pedigree includes a long line of "champions" with career-ending foot/ankle injuries which he's apparently inherited. He'll probably be best on turf--maybe the next Wise Dan.

I am curious to see the video of Chrome's public work on Saturday at Los Al. Hope he still has his "kick" and there aren't any lingering effects from his injury in the Belmont.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Proud Acres — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 20:56:52 GMT

I always look at the championships as what horse has done the most for the current year. Not what happened last year but what has been done this year. CC is such a fighter, hopefully he will be fit enough to get the job done in the PA derby. I think it is exciting coming into the breeders cup, all of horse racing can only benefit if both these horses go against each other and then again in the classic. I think we have some exciting 3 year olds coming up which will make the Classic this year so exciting. I am so lucky to be able to make it to the Breeders Cup this year and can't wait to see CC in person.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

JerseyBoy — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 16:02:09 GMT

I like to judge horses by what they did, not by what they did not do. It is all a matter of speculation what would have happened if so and so had occurred.

Shared Belief is an unbeaten multiple graded stakes winner. In his last start he was 0.34 seconds off the track record. He beat an open field at weight for age.

Wise Dan is also a multiple graded stakes winner. He has lost one race over the past 12 months. In his last start he gave weight to all of his competition. He carried 127 lbs and was only 0.17 seconds off the track record which was set by a horse who was carrying 115 lbs, more than 20 years ago.

This places them way clear of the rest.

It is no contest at this stage. It is a two-horse race at this point. No one else is even close.

It does not mean that either will get the Horse of the Year award because that is an election.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Owlbet — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 14:20:34 GMT

Shared Belief is nothing more than a "hype" horse.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Tommyboomer — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 13:52:37 GMT

Interesting article, and a bunch of good points by Coldfacts. I think Shared Belief is a great horse, but is over-hyped at this point. I also think a race against California Chrome in PA, would be interesting, but in fairness to CC, he's coming off more than a 3 month layoff. Not sure if he'll be at his sharpest.

The Awesome again will be telling if some decent horses show up. Last year it had MMM and Paynter, hard to know who'll be running in it this year.

VE day is interesting, but one race, does not make a horse.

By the way, has anybody heard a thing from Danz?. He was the new super horse heading into the Derby, but has vanished from sight.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

West Lookout — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 04:06:49 GMT

Shared Belief's time in the Pacific Classic and the ease with which he overhauled the field made his effort more impressive than VE Day's Travers win. But no mention of Atreides? You better believe he's in the mix.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Daniel Jividen — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 20:36:05 GMT

Nice article. But don't forget Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and V.E. Day might still have something to say about the 3 year old championship.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Ranagulzion — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 19:16:00 GMT

In a possible Pennsylvania Derby clash Shared Belief would have a fitness edge over California Chrome but shipping him outside of California to compete would have to be viewed positively. Nothwithstanding,the competition should put the edge back on "Chrome" for the big Breeder's Cup showdown

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Coldfacts — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 17:31:46 GMT

Two major G1, 10F races were contested last weekend i.e., Travers and Pacific Classic. One was restricted to 3YOs and the other was for 3YOs and older. The Pacific Classis was won by 3YO Shared Belief and the Travers by V E Day. The victories of both horses could not be more different.

Shared Belief was the 4-5 ML favorite to win the Pacific Classic and his 4th graded stake. V E Day had a ML of 15-1 to win his graded stakes debut in a G1 race competing against 6 graded stakes winners including the Belmont winner. There can be no doubt as to which horse had the greater challenge.

En route to victory, Shared Belief passed the tiring 7YO Game On Dude like he was glued to the ground and just had to be kept up to his work. As a 3YO Shared Belief was in receipt of 6lbs from his older opponents VED had to pull out all the stops to defeat a fellow talented 3YO and a multiple graded stakes winner that had kicked wickedly for home and was not coming back to the field.

As a 3YO Shared Belief was in receipt of 6lbs from his older PC opponents. V E Day picked up 7Lbs from his last start and was at level weights of 126lbs with his opponents. Shared Belief scored his expected Pacific Classic victory and has since been the talk of the town. Those caught up in the euphoria of his victory and potential greatness have missed the unprecedented occurrence in the Travers and its unlikeliness.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Coldfacts — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 17:23:55 GMT

Shared Belief has won all his 6 starts. Three of those victories have been subsequent to being sidelined by foot issues. His action is not very smooth and there must be some concerns about his potential long term soundness with regular starts on the hard SA Speedway.

His connections have avoided shipping out of state to contest major 3YO races since his return. Have they been cunningly picking their spots or is there some other reason? The Haskell, Jim Dandy, Travers were never on his schedule. Why were those races avoided?

Of his 6 victories, none have been against the top 3YOs in the country. If this trend continues the prospect of him contesting the PA Derby is very remote. The older horses that he has defeated cannot be considered the cream of the division. Five of his victories have been recorded on synthetic surfaces. Is synthetic his preferred surface or the one that best suites his suspect action?

His victory in the Pacific Classic over a spent GOD and company has propelled him to the top horse in the country status in the views of many. Was his victory more impressive than that recorded by Dullahan in 2012? Dullahan defeated a much younger and more competitive GOD en route to a record time of 1:59.54 for the synthetic surface.

If the BCC was being contested on synthetic he would be a lock. However, I am not convinced that Shared Belief can win over 10F on dirt against the top 3YO & 4YO routers. I am of the opinion that his sestet action will be a negative against a talented group of smooth striding cruisers and closers over 10F on dirt.