2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 15:19:26 GMT

The last Fountain of Youth winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Thunder Gulch in 1995. The best a Fountain of Youth winner has done in the Kentucky Derby since they lengthened it to 9f is 10th (High Fly), and half of them haven't even made it to the gate. Not very encouraging, is it?

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 17:58:56 GMT

My last post should have read, Soldat has 7 career starts.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

The Legend — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 18:02:17 GMT

No that the dust has settled from Saturdays FOY let's make some notes for future Derby preps. First, Casper's Touch and Shakelford are phonies and should be taken off of the Derby trail. No I will agree that Soldat looked impressive in winning the FOY but let me ask a simple question. Name me a horse that has come from 10 lengths off the pace to win a stakes race at Gulfstream? I have never in all my years for handicapping seen such a speed bias at any track! If your a follower of Bris ratings all you have to do is bet the E's and the E/P's and stand by the window to collect. Like I said earlier Soldat did look good in winning but let's not make him the favorite for the Kentucky Derby just yet. He is now pointing to the Florida Derby and unless Gulstream corrects the speed bias he will probably wire the field again. I hope Nick Zito realizes this with Dialed In and waits to see if the track changes from such a profound speed bias. If this bias continues Zito should be looking at the Louisiana Derby or the Wood.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Love 'em all — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 20:21:54 GMT

Wow! I got #4 thru #8 in the right order of finish, but the top three out of order.

Had Honor to win ... Soldat for place ... and Dinner for show.

Best I've ever done with a bunch like those fellas.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

MikeM — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 18:17:50 GMT

THAS did not look good the last 1/4. I know he needed the race but it was a poor third.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 15:02:25 GMT

Tim,

I have to keep reminding all of you Pletcher groupies that 2010 is over. Enjoy your big wins over Mountain Town and Boys @ Tosconova. Mo has 3 career races to date, Soldat just completed his 8th career race. Have fun eating chalk in the Timely Useless and Wood Memorial. Please let me know when Mo wins a graded stakes race in 2011.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Fran Loszynski — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 12:35:38 GMT

I was getting ready to box my picks

Soldat, To Honor and Serve and Gourmet Dinner. My car broke down and didn't make it. GEEEEEEE Wilikers. We are on a roll Katherine though, so everybody

ELITE ALEX TRIPLE CROWN.

SOLDAT SECOND

TO HONOR AND SERVE THIRD

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Criminal Type — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 11:28:15 GMT

Can anyone tell me what happened to Black N beauty for him to run last in the Hutchenson. He was spectacualr two races back running away from a good allowance field. He looked like he flattened out in the Holy Bull when finishing fourth and I though, Ok he's a miler at best. But what I saw yesterday makes me think something is wrong with him, he's injured or sick. Anyone know?

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Tim — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 23:06:44 GMT

Like I said on other blogs onhere, To Honor and Serve is too slow and wouldn't win the FOY even in a small weak field and I aslo said Soldat would win easy because of the weak field he was facing. So lets see, who will will win the Derby? Oh I know, Uncle Mo!

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

anniedixie65 — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:54:36 GMT

This is what I had for The FOY

1st- Soldat

2nd- To Honor And Serve

3rd- Gourmet Dinner

I was sooo close!

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

AnneM — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:37:31 GMT

The race confirmed what I had been thinking. 1) That Soldat was best going into the race and would win and 2) that THAS is way over-rated

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Tim — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 19:43:51 GMT

Betsy you have to read the past performances. In the Champagne on a track that wasn't suped up Uncle Mo beat Mountain Town by 4 and 3 quarters of a length in 1:34.2 under a hand ride dueling through six furlongs in 1:10.2 while in hand and getting his final quarter in 24 flat. The final time was a fifth of a second off the stakes record and Mo only gets a 94 beyer when he probably ran anywhere from a 105 to a 110. In the Remson To Honor and Serve beat Mountain Town by 5 lengths getting his fourth quarter in 25.3 and his final eighth in 13.2 and he gets a 102 beyer? Give me a break. That beyer should have been somewhere around 90 which is right on because another eighth and To Honor and Serve would have went a mile and a quarter in about 2:04. Beyer just doesn't like Pletcher's struggle in Triple Crown races but it's not Todd's fault that his owners gave him precocious 2 year olds who were bred to win early. It's a misconception that he runs his 3 year olds into the ground because all he wants to be is a successful Triple Crown trainer. He actually did a pretty good job at getting sprinters like More Than Ready to finish fourth in the Derby.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

craig — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 18:11:30 GMT

bowman's causeway out of giant causeway is going to be the long shot in the superfecta mix.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

texaszippeee — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 17:59:59 GMT

I wish I had read the race preview first. I wouldn't have changed my 1st two picks, but I probably would have placed the rest a little differently.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

OSCAR — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 15:15:46 GMT

Soldat will win.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

minnow — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 13:37:17 GMT

looking fora great meal.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Derby Boy — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 13:20:41 GMT

I think Bill Mott has the goods this year and he's more than due to win his first Derby. To Honor and Serve is a classic Derby name. Both he and Uncle Mo will distance themselves in this better than average crop. It's going to be fun watching these two do battle! Let's hope they both make it to the the Triple Crown.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

I WAS THERE — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 09:23:40 GMT

This race looks like the don on paper. Closer wins,To much speed up front. $10 exacta key, 2 over 1,4,5

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Deacon — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 07:06:59 GMT

Bowman's Causeway...............

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Vale of Tears — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 06:19:48 GMT

3/5 w 3/5 w all = $12

3/5 w all w 3/5 = $14

all w 3/5 w 3/5 = $16

Small wager with big reward if track turns up cuppy...that last panel could wipe out the chalk if the pace gets too hot.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

SPLITS OF 12 — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 03:12:57 GMT

I believe that To Honor and Serve will come up a bit short in his bid to win the Foutain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, and here is why. He may be vunerable at the mile and eighth distance coming off such a long lay-off. For some reason I see him losing in deep stretch. And this leaves me to believe that Soldat will be the horse that beats THAS. Starting from the rail, jockey Alan Garcia should be able to get good early position and possibly even grab the lead while saving ground all at the same time. If the other speedsters don't show their best foot early, he could end up setting slow fractions and wiring the field. And if the other runners do show early speed, Soldat has enough tactical speed to sit off the pace and make a nice sustained move and run em down in the lane. Soldat's allowance win at Gulfstream in his last start was very impressive and it earned him a nice triple digit Beyer. This Kiarnan McLaughlin trained runner will be a handful on Saturday. I also like Casper's Touch, but I think he may be in a bit over his head. He's a big colt, who is still learning the game, and might need a few more tune-ups before he's ready for the big time. Still I wouldn't toss him. I think Shackleford is a horse to throw in the exotics as well. He beat Casper's Touch in his last race, and looked good doing it. So here's how I think the Foutain of Youth will shake down in order. (Win) Soldat, (Place) To Honor and Serve, (Show) Shackleford, Caspers Touch.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

El Kabong — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:26:20 GMT

the illum

good info, thanks. I'll be watching for that in the races leading up. Good luck to you.

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

El Kabong — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:18:25 GMT

$5 tri - Soldat/all/thas,bowmn

$1 sup- bow,thas/soldat/all/thas, bow, cap

$15 cigar, $12 Martinis..............Telling Coldfacts I told you so........priceless:)

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Katherine — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:13:31 GMT

@ Fran Loszynski, once again Fran we agree:

Soldat

To Honor and Serve

Gourmet Dinner

re: 2011 Fountain of Youth - Predict the Order of Finish

Betsy — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 23:31:41 GMT

THAS got a 102 BSF in his last - hardly slow. He won't be on the lead tomorrow - he can rate, he's done it before.