2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 03:10:47 GMT

Rachel,

And what about the feelings of Rosario and Espinoza? Let me guess, their feelings don't matter because they are men.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Rachel — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 10:58:32 GMT

I still got tears in my eyes this morning, though, at the poor sportsmanship toward Chantal...

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Bill Daly — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 23:04:29 GMT

Pedigree Ann, thank you for your explanation. I simply cannot see Twirling Candy's shoulder bouncing or brushing Game On Dude's rump. I did see Sutherland whipping left handed and her horse bore out noticeably into Twirling Candy. How the stews can overlook that is amazing.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Love 'em all — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 17:31:59 GMT

Congrats to Game on Dude, Setsuko and Quindici Man. Had them in the right order of finish, but had them finishing as 7th, 8th and 9th. lol

Hope TC comes out of this with just his pride being hurt. Ouch! That was a rough ride.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 14:32:49 GMT

Bill Daly,

HRTV showed the head-on numerous times and when I put a straight-edge up to the screen, Game On Dude never left it until he was hit by Twirling Candy. All three came wide off the turn and as they straightened, it looked like Twirling Candy came out a bit and brushed with Setsuko; he bounced off that one and his shoulder went into Game on Dude's rump, unbalancing him and setting off the more obvious bumping. When a horse's rear end is moved off center, the front end will compensate by moving off center in the opposite direction. Twirling Candy started the mess.

This, by the way, is exactly what Gary Stevens described right after his first viewing the head-on of the incident.

And I thought Stardust Mel should have come down for bumping Out of the East in '75. Saw Shoe as he was coming through the tunnel afterwards; his tight little smile told me he knew he had dodged a bullet.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

GunBow — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 10:49:40 GMT

I had serious reservations about Twirling Candy, but I was still disappointed with the way he ran. I guess part of me was hoping for something special.

What I got instead was an exciting, fascinating, crazy race that will be remembered for years. Game on Dude was my 4th choice, and I came awy from his performance impressed. He's not a great horse but he has quality and is now a gr.1 winner at 10 furlongs. How many horses can claim that?

The inquiry will be long disputed. I guess I can't blame the stewards for keeping Game on Dude up, but I wouldn't have blamed them had they not. However, having been at Santa Anita for The Wicked North's dq in 94', I guess I am a little surprised the result was allowed to stand. The key, it appears, was that Twirling Candy initiated the bumping.

Didn't have Setsuko on my radar at all, but the horse ran well. He displayed surprising tactical speed and then turned it into a test of endurance. He undoubtedly was not aided by the bumping, but the fact is he was able to take the lead deep in the stretch after the bumping, only to let Game on Dude come back. There's a reason Setsuko has won only 1 race.

I aslo didn't have Quindici Man in my super. The horse, however, is 90% in the money on dirt for his career and clearly likes longer distances.

Soul Candy, a horse I did like, rallied moderately for 4th, with Twirling Candy 5th, and First Dude 6th.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Rechelle — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 07:41:27 GMT

I can't believe how much of a sore loser Victor Espinoza is being! To say that his horse did nothing wrong is insane. To be fair, he certainly didn't help Twirling Candy being a pinball going into the stretch, but to say the 3 stewards were wrong is ludicrous! Chantal & Joel ran great races today and it's a damn miracle that none of the horses involved went down. Chantal rode a helluva race today and she deserved her victory! I think Game On Dude is going to improve as the season goes on! But Victor is being just as much of an egotistical sore loser as Javier Castellano acted after the BC Marathon! They both need to get their over inflated egos in check, it adds too much weight to the horse!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Gladiator — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 06:28:40 GMT

Wow! Somebody muzzle that Babbling Bob Baffert. He says " TC was tired and done at the top of the stretch...Really? Really Bob? TC was flying and trying to split between 2 horses when he was banged around like a pin ball. After that, he was done. TC had a nightmare trip and was still coming on until all of the comotion happened. I have to admit that Game on Dude ran a great race. But I will hold judgement on TC until his next race.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

mark — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 05:34:44 GMT

Well another uneventful day with california racing proving without a shadow of doubt that gameondude should have been taken down in very handicappers eyes and trainers eyes and most important the fans. This handicapper i will say this Mr.Mandella was really robbed from this years big gap.With all eyes on twirling candy and everyhandicapper saying he is the biggest star coming up in the ranks for older horses.No one would even dwell what has happen but i feel that the fans and the wonderful racing of old santa anita has long been loss.With we has fans of old and new the average takeouts been raised and even their own stewards couldnt even make the right call just to please baffert.I felt that the luster of old santa anita has been lost but management must first and foremost look at the fans we are the ones that bring our dollars into california racing.

But to make it clear i did like setsuko

My pick was in bloodhorse

mark 03 Mar 2011 1:57 PM

Twirling Candy good hard knocking race horse with alot of kick.But the question on my mind is the layoff is he going to need a race before getting back into winning ways.I have alot of ways to handicapp this race like everyone else.But it seems a little strange to me that top trainers like Bob Baffert, J W Sadler and P Gallagher sends out nearly 70 percent of the entrants in this years Santa Anita Handicap.With Twirling Candy and jockey J Rosario with a target on their backs and top trainers sending out uncoupled entry to feel this years feild.I look elsewhere to make a profit and here is the horse i like

pros and cons

Setsuko (KY) and jockey V Espinoza

been working steadly for this spot and trainer R E Mandella loves his workout times so is sittng on a win

pros

good decent win and jock percentage

been workingout like a good horse

Good long striding colt

Cons

has no focus

givesup on the fight factor

has been beaten by most of the feild combine 12 lenghts

Value play

I will be buying him too win

also will be placing him over on top with exacta s and tri see what happens at 20-1 or better i love live longshots if V Espinoza can keep him moving and the weight 112 he will be carrying less than 10 pounds from Twirling Candy may make him a winner good luck all and remember we are the fans that keep racing going

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

James Mc — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 02:50:23 GMT

Actually Emilton-Dominican Republic, Rosario is in a virtual tie for about the 12th best jockey in the country. As I have posted repeatedly on other sites, the stooge should've taken Twirling Candy to the front, IMMEDIATELY. Instead, he nursed him off a tepid pace and got slammed around like a pinball. Fairly predictable he'd get a rough trip, given all of the Baffert horses entered.

Rosario was a pure loser in the Big Cap, he didn't help the horse one iota. He's just as consistent/inconsistent as about 20 other jockeys riding right now, no better, no worse. He is nothing special.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Ranagulzion — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 02:20:23 GMT

Twirling Candy got roughed up in more ways than one, finishing worse than I expected. I picked the wrong dude, First Dud (LOL) but the race showed that TC is by no stretch of the immagination the top horse in America at this time. A fit Sidney's Candy is the better horse of the two candies, on any surface at any distance.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 01:56:09 GMT

Great call Reszkak! I only picked him for second, behind (gag) Spurrier. Hope you raked in a bundle.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

SPLITSOF12 — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 01:54:54 GMT

Twirling Candy had a rough day today. I hyped him up pretty good and he made me look pretty stupid on here and other blogs. All I can say is kudos to Chantal Sutherland and her mount Game on Dude for hanging in there after that bumper car ride in the stretch. They were tenacious enough to overcome it, wand still able to hold off a hard charging Setsuko, for the win.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Bill Daly — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 01:54:46 GMT

Reszkak and Fran Lodzynski, you guys are buying tonight! Great handicapping and congratulations. That being said, I think the stewards are out of their minds. I heard the steward's explanation and I'm not buying it. I don't think Twirling Candy interfered enough [if at all] with Game On Dude to blame that mess on him. Just incredible.They'll be talking about this one for years. And they took down Perrault! Go figure.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

skyfire — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 22:36:46 GMT

Pedigree Ann, good point about the dearth of competition in handicap division. It is so expensive to race these days that I can't blame owners that retire horses for the bucks; however, I would have loved to have seen LOL, my pick in the BC, race this year. I think he would have developed to be even better at 4 and 5. At least he is safe and sound at stud.

I mentioned Kelso, the great handicapper; he was before my time, but I am a huge fan of the horses of the 60's, my favorite decade - the quote was paired with a front picture of Kelso, about 10 lengths in front of the field. I think it is one of his Jockey Club Gold Cups. I love the great geldings, Kelso, Forego and John Henry. Tough, tough horses in the handicap division!!

That said, go Twirling Candy -- Lane's End bought into him, so he will probably be wisked of to stud this year also.

Yes, Stay Thirsty -- good first race back.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

SPLITSOF12 — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 19:20:17 GMT

Deacon,

Urgent Request was an absolute speed freak. But he was also a basket case. You never knew which horse was going to show up. I remember once before a race, the big grey was all lathered up in sweat, throwing back kicks and rocking his head up and down. He got himself so worked up before the race, that when they left the gate, he shot out like a quarter horse, and went 22.0, 45.0, 1:09, without even taking a breath. He was rank as all get up, yet he still managed to conjure up a 15 length lead. As he made the turn for home, in one fell swoop his lead vanished and the stretch-runners inhaled him like a bad habit. He lost by thirty lengths.

Now lets fast-forward to that day in 1995 when he won the Santa Anita Big Cap, running a final time of 1:59 2/5. On this day, I remember him being nice and relaxed in the paddock, which was unheard of at the time for this headcase of a horse. I looked at his odds and they were around 10-1. When he came out onto the track, he started rocking his head up and down and I thought to myself, oh no, not this again. But something was different about Urgent Request. He wasn't sweating, he wasn't kicking, he just looked confident.

The Irish bred, Urgent Request, shot off like a like a rocket that day in the 1995 Big Cap. He set blistering fractions almost identical to the ones I'd mentioned in his previous race. He was collared by Del Mar Dennis for most of the race. When the two horses straightened up and made the turn for home, DDD, had a head in front but was all out. Jockey Gary Stevens still had some reign left, and knew he would need every last bit of it, if he was going to hold off the stretch-runners Dare and Go, and the chiseled veteran Best Pal. As BP uncorked his devastating late run, he was catching UR with every stride. It looked like Urgent was about to get gobbled like a Thanksgiving Day Turkey. But instead, his tail got erect and he re-kicked for Gary Stevens at the 1/16th pole and had just enough juice to hold off Best Pal for the win. After the race I looked at the board excited to think I just hit a 10-1 shot but it read 3-1. I scratched my head, thinking, who hammered him down at the last minute like that. Well, it turns out it was his owner, who put $90,000 on him to win, as well as $30,000 to show. Perhaps Twirling Candy can run a 22.0, 45.0, 1:09 and keep going like Urgent Request did that day.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Emilton-Dominican Republic — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 19:11:38 GMT

Maybe Twirling Candy has to prove that he deserves to be called the "Best Horse of the Country"..but look at his record; the only race hi didn't win was the only race that Joel Rosario didn't ride him, that day "The best Jokey of the country" had to go to take over the Alabama Stakes on Blind Luck...So, the next Twirling Candy's race will be the perfect combination: THE BEST JOCKEY OF THE COUNTRY ON THE BEST HORSE OF THE COUNTRY

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Reszkak — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:51:56 GMT

I like Game on Dude. If he goes off over 10-1 like the morning line, I'm going all in.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

jerry daker — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:18:32 GMT

I think the move to baffert, was a smart move. First Dude now or never...

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

street sense — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 15:47:35 GMT

first dude is a money burner he could not win the pa derby against his on age.1 twirling candy 2.setsuko 3.aggie engineer

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 14:53:27 GMT

I would like to point out to people that the ability to get 9f like a champion is no guarantee said horse will run the same way at 10f. It may be only a furlong longer, but it has been historically the distance that separated the talented milers from the true classic horses. One sees it over and over again, from Olympia to Quality Road.

Twirling Candy has the pedigree to go longer than 9f, no question. Candy Ride ran by Medaglia d'Oro to win the Pacific Classic with dismissive ease and the damline is stout as can be; third dam Crownette was by Seattle Slew out of an Alydar half-sister to Affirmed. Danzig cross adds some brilliance, Chester House some quality.

However, let me remind you of the words of Harvey Pack - never bet a horse as a favorite, especially a heavy favorite, when it is doing something for the first time (2 turns, new surface, etc.).

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 14:32:22 GMT

Householder - I came into the game in time to see Ack Ack's championship campaign and to fall in love with His Felinity, Cougar II. Just missed Nodouble. All the classic winners who were sound went on to race at 4, never a question. Personality, Dust Commander (who raced 14 times at 2), Canonero, Riva Ridge, Bee Bee Bee (beat Riva in the slop at Pimlico), all raced at 4, even if they weren't as successful as they had been at 3. Secretariat was the first big jolt to the system.

I remember the first Strub I attended. Smog was so thick you could barely see the full starting gate up in the chute (it was a real race then at 10f). The Travers winner Loud from the Haggin Perry barn was there, but in the end it was two Calbred noses on the wire, the Del Mar Derby winner War Heim and the Hollywood Derby (10f dirt) winner Hanalei Bay, one of the most beautiful horses I've ever seen. Hanalei Bay had a habit of losing the close ones and he did so again here.

War Heim's sire was the amusingly named Slipped Disc, who was by Decathlon out of Aching Back.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

trackjack — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 13:51:25 GMT

Twirling Candy to win.

Do the Candy/Dude EX BOX:

Twirling Candy, Soul Candy, First Dude, Game On Dude.

Good Luck!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

brhager — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 12:36:23 GMT

I love Soul Candy, especially with Gomez on board but I cannot get past the fact that he is turf horse.

So your best shot, long shot is...... *SPURRIER*. What's not to like? He's ran on the track twice this year, he's always in the money and he's a closer. (closer = fun). I would stay away from the win and place bets and go heavy down on the show ticket.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Handicap - Predict the Order of Finish

Matthew W — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 06:55:49 GMT

I like Soul Candy--Twirling Candy will get plenty of company up front--we'll see if he can relax for five furlongs--he'll have to--1 1/4 is a good "bet against" angle when it's a situation where there's more speed and longer distance than the preceeding "cakewalk" race--Soul Candy makes his first start ever on dirt--his prep, vs Caracortado/Usual Q T, was against real class horses--and he was closing fastest on them--his works have been progressively better and 2nd time GoGo--he'll be a big price--I love him/will play him W/P/S and box with Twirling Candy--and, yes, Deacon, once upon a time in Racing, this weekend would be "Big Cap Weekend", and everybody would be abuzz with their Big Cap picks....