2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 22:28:39 GMT

Stay Thirsty and Flashpoint were always pretenders on the trail. To Honor And Serve is just not as good as most people keep hoping for. I lost some spark with Soldat, I know that he is far better than his FL Derby race. He deserves another chance on dirt in the KY Derby. If he fails to run big there, he can always be a champion on TURF.

All of you Dialed In doubters received a wake up call. The final time is meaningless at this point in time. He finished fast and wants a 1 1/4 mile race. His big neck is being supported by tremendous stallion power! In only his fourth career start, the sky is the limit with this fine colt.

Uncle Mo is the horse who has distance limitations and will be exposed soon.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

joeywoge — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:59:42 GMT

Unpredictability!! That's Horse Racing!! Flashpoint makes a right hand turn out of the gate and never gets a chance to take the lead. Gets caught 5 or 6 wide around the first turn and his race was over. Changed the whole dynamics of the race. Shackleford guns to the lead and uses the track bias to hang around at the end and almost upset Dialed In. Soldat let's us know he doesn't like dirt in his face so why would you bother running him in the Derby. He can't get the lead!!! THAS needs to run in a 4 horse field in NY against Much Macho Man in order to win!! Stay Thirsty need to come off the Derby dozen in a hurry!! Dialed In is obviously the real deal. No one closed from that far back all day at Gulf. He's a special horse and needs to be respected come Derby day!!

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Johnny — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:43:38 GMT

Gulfstream has got to be the worse track setup for big races..

Friggen people with no track courtesy coming up to the window and asking the ticket guys with a friggen dollar in their hand what horse should I bet? People taking 2-3 minutes to make a 2dollar bet..

Gulfstream was JAMMED Pack..

In the paddock the horses come out for the 10th Soldat does not look all that good to me yesterday coat a little dull I waver on him he was my bet.. Looking at all the horses THAS looks wound up and ready to go thinking about him now.. Then comes the 5 Schakelford biggest horse oin the paddock trancing on coat dappled as can be odds of 45-1..I say okay Ive seen it happen before and that is why they run the race..

2$ exacta box 5 with all

of at 68-1 I thought I nailed the winner.

300 change payout.

I had abig day yester day hit the exacta in the 1st the 4th and the 10th and 20 dollars on the winner on the 9th.. It was a good day besides the mob..

Soldat I do not know.. Dialed In with a 1 1/4 is going to be tough especially the way he closed at Gulfstream. Churchill wil play different..

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Zen's Auntie — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:02:38 GMT

Make that Good Conditioning, A great prep race, and a LOT of want to. Dialed In got my number. It's obvious Nick Loves this colt - good for them!

God I love a deep closer - I hope he wins the Preakness for the 5.5 that would be SMASHING!

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 00:50:47 GMT

What a comeback from being 14 lengths down entering the far turn!

Does history repeat itself?

Exactly 50 years this past Friday, April 1,1961, a small, 15 1/2 hands, modestly bred colt burst on the Derby scene with a great come from behind victory, making up 14 lengths from the far turn to the wire, to win the Florida Derby by a head, just like today. Five weeks later, he came from an incredible 18 lengths back to win the Kentucky Derby by 3/4 lengths. Two weeks later, he came from 16 lengths back in the last 3 furlongs to win the Preakness by 3/4 again after a furious stretch run. He became known as "the people's horse", the rags to riches Hall of Famer Carry Back.

And now we have Dialed In, another smallish colt with the same incredible come from behind style.

And is there really anything more exciting in Racing than the great come from behind stretch runner?

Don't know if Dialed in can catch Uncle Mo. But get ready for another exciting stretch run from out of the clouds on May 7th. One that would have made old Carry Back proud. Perhaps history WILL repeat itself.

www.kentuckyderby.com/.../1961

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

skyfire — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:39:38 GMT

My two Bernardinis, THS on east coast and Wilburn, at Santa Anita, did not run as I had hoped.

Don't see anything in Florida to cause Uncle Mo a problem.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

tcc — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:39:01 GMT

Pool #3 odds on these horses before the Florida Derby were, and then after the race to closing time.

Dialed In 10-1 5-1

Soldat 14-1 17-1

Stay Thirsty 28-1 32-1

To Honor And Serve 15-1 15-1

Not in this race,but the odds on

Uncle Mo 5/2 3-1

before and after this race to closing time.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Ranagulzion — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:29:50 GMT

Coldfacts,

Here are some of my thoughts in the aftermath of the Florida Derby: I see where you taught El Kabong a thing or two about handicapping by your astute analysis of comparitive split times re Shackleford. Good job. I just love it when the result on the track shows who knows what they are talking about. Next time pick on someone your size, Okay Bro?

Sorry El Kabong but you have to be careful how you rush in to tackle Professor Coldfacts (LOL).

Now let me remind you about your fuzzy logic re Nick Zito winning back to back Florida Derbies. You sock it to El Kabong but now I'm socking it to you 'Professor'. Please check the logic of your arguments before rumbling with Ranagulzion, okay?(LOL). The final time of the Florida Derby was not earth shattering but you have to give Dialed In his due. You may not like it that he tagged Shackleford on the wire, but you must admit that it was a pretty awesome performance by a confirmed "hell for leather" closer on a speed-favouring track. His scorching late run will be more devastating at Churchill Downs, over which surface he's already sparkled.

As I posted in the pre-race discussions, Flashpoint cooked To Honour and Serve's goose. He did it a little differently than I expected because of missing the break from that deadly Gulfstream outside post, but he prompted a brisk pace from being a close-up third and made a move outside of THAS going into the far turn that forced Garret Gomez's hand on THAS to move earlier than he'd like. That pretty much did him in, and like in the FOY he ploded on a well beaten third. It will be interesting to see if any of the AP Indys or Bernardinis will still be on anybody's Derby Dozen list next week. What do you think Coldfacts? You and I knock heads a lot on here but to a large degree the track results are testifying on our behalf. Keep up the good work my learned sparring partner.

BTW what happened to Soldat? I think that he was forced out of his preferred running style on dirt, which is to be on or near the lead. He is a good colt but lost a lot of marks here especially since there was a question mark about his speed.

As of now the Derby elite has four colts: Uncle Mo, Dialed In, Premier Pegasus and The Factor. The latter still has to show that he will get ten furlongs but his series of super 100 Beyer figures place him firmly in the upper echelons.

It is not a sure thing that Shakleford will qualify for the Derby on earnings but he showed that he belongs. Based upon the history of the performance of the graded earnings system I believe that he'll get in.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Paula Higgins — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:23:21 GMT

I think what we can take out of this race is that the horses running here, outside of Dialed In, are no threat to Uncle Mo, The Factor or Premiere Pegasus. Shackleford was a pleasant surprise but he isn't going to beat Uncle Mo either. Soldat was the surprise here. He just didn't fire at all. A completely lackluster race for him. The rest did what I expected.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

papillon — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:10:03 GMT

had a win bet on shackleford at 60-1 grrrr--i love dialed in but i was pretty mad at him today =)

soldat never fired was pretty much just jogging around the track--maybe he threw a shoe or something--but then again he did look pretty hot and sweaty in the post parade which made me wonder if he was ok.

THAS is this year's jackson's bend--an over rated 3 year old based on his 2 year old results. it was the FOY all over again, he basically shut down as they turned for home and was just lucky nobody passed him has he stumbled over the finish line.

stay thirsty is all hype.

flashpoint is a huge horse (physically).

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

OLD TIMER — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:02:47 GMT

Nice handicapping Coldfacts on Shackelford. I hope that you had the exacta.

The pace was honest, although not spectacular.

Come May, discount Mr. Zito at your own peril.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Betsy — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 22:03:44 GMT

Pretty awful race. Shackleford is not that good - Dialed In is, though. Everyone else was bad. ST is better than that - I assume he'll move on to KY without blinkers. THAS is obviously a disappointment - he was completely rubber legged. I've no idea what happened to Soldat.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Zen's Auntie — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 20:22:06 GMT

Well, Crowded or not I wish I was in FL. It does not look like the perfect track condition for closers - But the pace scenario does. I feel FP and Soldat with cancel each other on the lead. the track is not unusually fast today but It seems to be carrying speed (the fam's giving me reports wish I was there) and its fairly hot and sounds like the tracks hardening up as they go, the humidity is pretty low for the area.

What happens if Flashpoint carries? I like TH&S too, who ever takes it I feel they can leave to much to do in the stretch and TH&S might get a perfect stalk.

I havent seen a big close all day here, the winner should be just stalking. If Dialed In can somehow get a good 2nd turn and an inside run maybe he can pull this off on good conditioning.

Arch Traveler for Minor LS -

Most of all I Hope they all stay safe. And ask for a moment quiet for Meteore - and all those TB's who give us ALL they have.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

The Bid — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 20:02:32 GMT

Some may call it "Hating", I prefer to call it IGNORANCE!!! Mo has NOTHING to prove to ANY OF YOU!! WE are fans on a blog who know NOTHING in regards to training a MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR stakes horse!! His connections are doing right by the horse and like it or not MO IS A WINNER!!!!HE IS BY FARRRRR The best 3yr. old in this current crop and NO ONE IS IN HIS Hemisphere...Believe IT or Not!!!??? The Wood will prove how FAST he truly is...Baffert had an opportunity to run Jaycito and chose to dodge MO...FACT not a low blow!! Many are going to spew utter stupidity by downgrading The Wood and The Writer by refering to "Lack of Competition"...I just ignore utter ignorance as FODDER and move on to the realization that MO IS SPECIAL and utterly The Definition of CLASS and SHINE those who prefer to knock Him instead of REVERE HIM!!!!

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Matthew W — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 18:28:59 GMT

I always look at things that point to a horse as sort of a reason to bet them--To Honor And Serve has two good angles, first, he needed that race--second, he'll be much better odds today--he's my bet, although it will be a task to beat Soldat--I, too, like Bowman's Causeway as an outsider--if they stalk a fast pace, look for a closer--for that matter, I hope To Honor And Serve may be close to the pace--I hope not! I want him to come from at least five back--after all, if The Factor is in the Derby, he'll have to come from farther back, so why not get that part down today....of corse, winning a race at Gulfstream has not exactly been my forte over the years--I love the bigger fields, though, Florida has those--just look at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs--the Skip Away (race #9) is a nice race--I like Drosselmeyer and Gomez to run big--also Jardim at 10-1, as well as the fave, Colizeo...the best race of the day just might be the race #11 allowance--I love #1 Hudson Steele (6-1, but I don't think I'll get that) as well as #4 Deal Making (10-1 and I'll be suprised if I get that as well)...good luck/good racing....

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

tcc — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 17:08:30 GMT

Just going to try the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta boxes on #'s 1-2-3-4-6-8

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Suzie — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 16:32:39 GMT

Mott will get her done!

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

southern dancer — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 15:30:20 GMT

i see several folks on here are falling for the uncle mo hype thats been created by the media to draw intrest to the sport , but lets get real here , its mostly little girls and naive old widows who are on the band wagon , you ask the insiders and they will tell you this horse is running up his resume against third rate claimers , uncle mo ? triple crown ? yeah right ! lol !

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Thats Just the Way It Is — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 15:15:17 GMT

Looks like Soldat, who has in fact rated in the past, should get first crack at Flashpoints wobbling knees down the stretch. Hoping Billy put enough bottom end into THAS so he has some lasting power this time out - Mott hasnt exactly been winning alot lately so you have to at least ask ourself the question (despite his hall of fame status).

Arch Traveler and Shackleford are the sneaky value plays in here and the only question is will one or both pass a tiring Flashpoint for third.

Stay Thirsty should have Stayed Home - for second in the Wood.

Dialed In's has a lumbering stride - he has a Benny the Bull running style and will have a Benny the Bull type career . .. sprinting.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

angels begone — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 15:11:36 GMT

great field ! whos missing ? uncle mo of course , i wouldnt be suprised if his handlers tried to enter him in the kentucky oaks instead of the derby , god knows his candy ass has dodged everyone else !

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

EL Kabong — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 14:53:37 GMT

Coldfacts,

I missed nothing of the point. You compared two times run under different circumstances and based your decision that he would be competitive on that. You displayed their times side by side and suggested that because they were so alike, shackleford would be competitive. I tried to point out to you that equal times run on the same track under different conditions are not comparable. You have to check how the other horses ran that time at the distance to adjust for a tighter or slower track or a head wind down the lane which longer distance races would face twice at Gulfstream Park(they are very close to the Atlantic shore where strong winds will be frequent. When you do that, I believe you will determine quite easily that Soldat is almost a full 2 seconds faster under similar conditions which their race did suggest. I think Shackleford is still in over his head with this crowd which includes horses just as good or maybe better than Soldat. So what did I miss?

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

GoldenBroom — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 11:10:26 GMT

I like Dialed In but I think I'll go with Stay Thirsty who may get a little better price to win. His win wasn't overwhelming but I still think your competition says more about you...he was training alongside Mo most of the winter and the way he spanked everyone in the BCJ...I think may have rubbed off on Thirsty. I'll be rooting for Zito but won't be surprised if Stay Thirsty pulls mild upset over Soldat, Dialed In and everyone's favorite named horse, THAS.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Horseman Eric Wayne — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 08:01:17 GMT

I know we have not seen Flashpoint do this distance. But, I think he will surprise. Soldat will be tough to beat, at least by past performance and on paper.

It would be great for racing to see two horses Run To The Roses as an undefeated horse: Uncle Mo and Flashpoint.

You cannot ignore what The Factor is doing. So, he will also be in the mix. We should have a pretty large field in May.

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Kowabonga — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 07:44:29 GMT

1) To Honor And Serve

2) Dialed In

3) Soldat

4) Arch Traveler

5) Stay Thirsty

6) Flashpoint

7) Bowman's Causeway

8) Shackleford

re: 2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Coldfacts — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 06:24:30 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Dialed In's action doesn't have to be the most elegant to see him home fist. I'm sure you'll need to find another angle to talk him down”

A large neck, an energy consuming action, a Storm Cat broodmare and sire line that has produced only 2 winners of TC races in 26 years is more than any one colt can manage. I do not have to take him down. The burden of his historic negatives will do the job. If Dialed In could not run by his stalemate that darted sharply to his right, how is he going to pass top class colt keeping a straight course?

NB:Storm Cat mare do not produce winner of TC races so in the event Dialed In win the FL Derby forget about him in the KD.

You actually have two colt ranked ahead of Premier Pegasus? I guess they are Mighty Mo and Dialed In. Well, it is clear you have no regard for two of the most Powerful Force in TC history.