2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Del — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 15:46:11 GMT

It's hard to see Midnight Interlude repeating an effort like that. Comma deserves a lot of credit for providing all the pace. Miller must have sized up the bunch and figured they could take 'em on the front end. I doubt he'll do that in the Derby.

Best thing Miller has done is keep his horse healthy along the journey. I think Comma was meant for the Derby all along. Smart barns don't show their cards. Miller has been very professional. I think the El Camino Real was just a test. It was smart to run him on synthetic before the dirt. That's what's so great about California. They have surface options. Anyway, Miller has been conservative and has been afforded that luxury with Comma's early earnings. A very professional campaign by the trainer.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

GunBow — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 07:54:58 GMT

Well, Baffert wins anyways.

And with a horse that just broke his maiden a few weeks ago! I thought Baffert entered him as a rabbit for Jaycito, but given Jaycito has been battling tender feet for a while, Baffert didn't want to be without a starter and thought he was coming up to the race well and could get the distance.

Midnight Interlude ran well, and likely would have won by a length had he not had to alter course in midstretch when Comma to the Top veered out. Yet, it's hard to think this horse is going to be much of a factor in Kentucky. However, given all the surprises and mediocre performances, who knows anymore?

Comma to the Top ran valiantly in 2nd. Comma has had a demanding schedule and probably wants a little less ground, but $200k for 2nd ain't bad. Peter Miller is going to do right by him and skip the Derby and give him a break. Classy.

As for Baffert, he's just a master of 3 year olds in the springtime. This was his 6th Santa Anita Derby, and he also has a number of runner-ups. Most have gone on to run well in the Derby and/or Triple Crown. The result is 3 Kentucky Derby wins, 5 Preakness wins, and a Belmont.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Gary Max — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 01:51:30 GMT

Guys the surface to air missles have shot all the stealths out of the air. I remember writing on Steve Haskin's blog about Todd's sitting on the fence antics on where MO runs next Florida Derby or The Wood was clearly exposed today. Nice try Todd but the Met Mile should be next on your schedule. Maybe next year forget the Triple Crown trail with MO.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 18:50:32 GMT

Bob Lunny, Premier Pegasus was injured after working on the training track, not the main track. Jaycito's problem is an abscess, an infection, which has little to do with track surface.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Mike — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 17:59:17 GMT

Watch for Quail Hill. Just a hunch but this horse could very well Shackleford this race, now that the 2 big guns are out.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

bob lunny — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 17:07:51 GMT

SA goes to dirt and we lose 2 Derby conteders

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

street sense — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 15:09:46 GMT

as some one who picked premier peg in the san felipe. i am upset at his injury. but that is what happans in this game we love the show must go on. as for the santa anita derby. anthonys cross has two turn experience that will matter in this field. but bob baffert's midnight interlude had a bullet work in the last week this looks like speed on the lead all the way to the winners circle

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Gebo — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 04:45:17 GMT

Without Premier Pegasus and Jaycito, I have to say that I'm expecting a valiant bid by Comma to the Top. I don't know if Silver Medallion will meet expectations. I'm also curious to see how Bench Points fairs, and would not be surprised to see him Show or better.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

GunBow — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:19:55 GMT

Well, the SA Derby has officially fallen apart. Although I was not high on Jaycito, he was a big name that was going to take a lot of betting, and he has the breeding of a horse that might get better with distance.

Without PrePeg, Jaycito was the only legit top 10 Derby contender in the field, and now he's gone.

The good new for Jaycito, his connections, and his fans is that he only has a foot bruise, and Baffert is planning to run him in the Lexington in 2 weeks. So, Jaycito's Derby and Triple Crown hopes are still alive, it's just that fans at Santa Anita won't get to see him run this Saturday.

I have ZERO expectations that the SA Derby will produce a top 5 Kentucky Derby contender. I actually think the horse not under consideration for the Derby, Comma to the Top, has a good chance to win. Would Peter Miller reconsider in the wake of a win?

Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons do appear to be peaking for the race, but they have yet to run fast. Maybe they can take that next step in their development, but there are no guarantees.

There is also no guarantee that Silver Medallion can transfer his turf/synth form to dirt. He has been training well on dirt, but will he be able to run an entire race over it? How will he like the kickback? And, after having faced moderate paces on turf and synth, how will he respond to the quicker dirt pace? Silver Medallion is a stalk and pounce horse on turf and synth, but stalking Comma to the Top on dirt will take much more effort, which in turn may weaken his stretch kick. And if he does have trouble keeping up early,could he fall too far back and give himself too much to do?

With these questions on the horses that will be now be the "favorites", a longshot winner wouldn't shock me, although it's hard to see Oflee Wild Boys winning.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Sunday Silence — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 19:14:17 GMT

FYI---JAYCITO---LOOKS LIKE HE'S SCRATCHING. ABCESS IN HOOF... Go Comma Go!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

DRose — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 18:18:11 GMT

This is ANTHONY'S CROSS' race to lose! He will be a legitimate Derby player!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

helloskinny — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:40:22 GMT

yes i think Anthony's Cross is primed and ready for a big effort has rosario aboard- the pick.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

El Kabong — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:27:30 GMT

Gary Max, Pinkmartinit

I like your choice. He's my wise guy play even if Peg is in the race, not that I wouldn't have boxed them, but he looks like he has steadily improved and could do so again off those works. If Sheriff's liked him enough to put him up against PrePeg, he must be very happy with his chances now. Going to play him with Jaycito and Anthony. I don't think Bench Points wants more distance. His legs looked like rubber in last race going 8.5

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Smoking Baby — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:34:07 GMT

Anthony's Cross is training lights out and has been for some time now. He was already good and he's getting better each day. I say he wins it and finally gets at least a little respect.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

winnow — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:33:35 GMT

bet the numbers is the bet proposition i can give here comma to the top was finish at GG jaycito will finish in the money but not win so s 4567 any order

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

saharagold — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:55:45 GMT

Mr. Commons is going to surprise you all!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Red'sRoundTable — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:04:04 GMT

Lester Agreed on Oflee Wild Boys

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Kurt — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 14:55:37 GMT

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that 'Anthony's Cross' is peaking at the right time and is a Derby contender. Which means I'm really missing the boat on this one!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

pinkmartinit — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 14:45:31 GMT

From way off the pace is Mike and Mr Commons

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

koko — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 14:02:50 GMT

Well now all the favorite bettors will have to learn how to hani-cap a race if they are going to cash a ticket. more money for us that have the know how

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Gary Max — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 13:53:13 GMT

Guys something is up with John Sheriffs and the crew. Here it is i am certain he has grass champion on his hands, yet he elects to go on the dirt,maybe its the grade 1 status and that huge purse, so am going to trust my gut instinct and go across the board on Mr. Commons. Wish me luck!

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 13:51:10 GMT

P.S. Found this on the blog about Hollendorfer Hall of Fame candidacy:

The Derby? He’s been punched in the stomach twice under the Twin Spires with perhaps his two best shots. The unbeaten Event of the Year injured a knee in his final Derby work in 1998 and Turfway Spiral Stakes (gr. II) winner Globalize was kicked by a stable pony the Thursday before the 2000 Derby.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 13:46:15 GMT

Sir Gaylord is hurt, when a 'certain' Derby winner. Buckpasser gets a quarter crack and Graustark breaks down. Devil's Bag gets hurt. A. P. Indy comes up with an injury. Buddha breaks down working. It has been happening for a lot longer than you think. There is still a race to be run and horses who will run in it, even some surprises - in the Buckpasser/Graustark year, Kauai King won the first two jewels, so a Triple Crown was still possible going to the Belmont.

That has always been the way of this sport. We all have to live with it.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

GoldenBroom — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:50:57 GMT

That's the breaks I guess...who is the speed in this race now? Will it set up better or worse for Jaycito in anyone's opinion? Bet Baffert is glad he kept his boy home afterall!!! Even if you are a fan of Mo, you still want to see as many good horses make it in to prove this crop is still strong. So sorry for Mr. Cho. What a class act and a feel good story. I would not have been too sad to see him take it all the way...

Here in Ohio we are about 1 day ahead of New York's weather and it is rain, rain, rain. Hope Mo and the others travel safe this weekend too.

re: 2011 Santa Anita Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

hilary11 — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 10:39:34 GMT

Mr Commons will surprise!