The connections of four horses being considered for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) will be watching the season's final two Road to the Kentucky Derby points races closely April 14.
The race with the most potential to upset the apple cart is the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, which offers points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to its respective top four finishers. Also in play is the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, which rewards points of 20-8-4-2 to its top finishers.
In the listing below of the top 25 points earners, the top 15 horses have nailed down starting spots, from Good Magic in the top spot to Free Drop Billy at 15. Grownkowski, who is listed at 20, is in through his automatic bid in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby.
That leaves Lone Sailor, 42 points; Hofburg, 40; Firenze Fire, 39; and Solomini, 34; as the final four horses currently with spots in the field but not a guaranteed spot at this point.
In the first five years of the Kentucky Derby points system, the final horse to earn a spot had between 10 and 32 points: 10 (2013), 20 (2014), 22 (2015), 32 (2016), and 30 (2017). This year, it is possible that 42 points might not be enough to join the field.
After a look at the standings and information provided by Churchill Downs media, in the Arkansas Derby Magnum Moon and Quip already are in the Kentucky Derby field. Solomini (34 points), Combatant (22), and Dream Baby Dream (20) earn a spot with a top-two finish and can be in the mix with a third-place showing. Machismo (5 qualifying points), Beautiful Shot (0), Plainsman (0) and Tenfold (0) will qualify with a win and join the discussion with a runner-up effort.
Meanwhile, My Boy Jack (32) needs a top-2 finish in the Lexington to vie for a position in the top 19 point earners. A win puts him in; a runner-up finish puts him on the bubble. All other Lexington starters would need defections to join the Kentucky Derby lineup if they win.
Road to the Kentucky
Derby Top 25
(Horses entered to
run this weekend in bold)
Rank, Horse Points
1. Good Magic 134
2. Audible 110
3. Noble Ind 110
4. Vino Rosso 107
5. Bolt d’Oro 104
6. Enticed 103
7. Mendelssohn 100
8. Justify 100
9. $-Flameaway 70
10. Bravazo 54
11. Promises Fulfilled 52
12. Magnum Moon 50
13. $-Runaway Ghost 50
14. Quip 50
15. Free Drop Billy 44
16. Lone Sailor 42
17. Hofburg 40
18. Firenze Fire 39
19. Solomini 34
20. Gronkowski Euro
bid
21. My Boy Jack 32
22. Snapper Sinclair 22
23. Combatant 22
24. $-Blended Citizen 22
25. Reride 20
$=Late Triple Crown nominee
Notes: Gronkowski
is listed at 20 but is in the field through the European Road to the Kentucky
Derby bid. Horses not being considered for the Derby are not included in
rankings
