Cowboy Cal is a good choice for sure and I have been a little disappointed with Z-Humor, but as long as he stays healthy, he has a good shot still.

I use the 20-1 rule also, that is if I play the futures at all. Most years I don't. I thought about placing a future on Monba when he opened at 30-1. But he dipped down to 16-1 the last I saw, so I skipped out. His Fla Derby was dreadful (he received a pretty nasty gash on the first turn), and Pletcher has now said that it's either the Lane's End or the Blue Grass next for him. He has a win over the Keeneland poly and a win at CD. I'm not ready to completely quit on him--yet. Since he did get torn up at GP, I'll toss that one and see if his odds go back up in the next pool. If they do, I might throw a small one down on him--maybe a twenty. But I'll have to think about it because my few futures plays in the past have been disasters. Out of three tries, only one horse (Saarland) even made it to the race, and I think he ran 8th or worse.

I'm a sucker too. You've summarized well the terrible risk involved in the future wager.  It's such a bad bet that just getting your horse into the Derby starting gate feels like a victory.

But, yes, it's fun.  Every racing wager has an anticipatory psychic component which can be savored between the time the bet is made and the race itself.  No bet in racing provides a larger psychic component than the Derby future wager, as you follow the ups and downs of your choice or choices along the Derby trail.  It's fun.

I like to make one large bet on a single horse opposed to spreading out, hoping for a huge score.  No luck yet in previous years with that strategy but that leads me to the one amazing value in Pool 1 you neglected to mention -- Denis Of Cork at 46-1.  Drinks on me if he wears the roses.

Great blog! count me in. This year I got 48-1 on Yankee Bravo, what a nice race on the synth in No. Cal. He looks like a good one. Now if I only remember where I left my ticket.

I am NOT a handicapper, just your basic horse nut. Using your 20-1 rule, which sounds reasonable, I guess only two of the 16 horses I am following meets your test, although a third, Majestic Warrior, comes close: Cowboy Cal and Signature Move-- that second one, at long Pool One odds (99 to 1?) a gem of a bomber-- his sire, Bob Baffert's Vindication, a classic early bloomer, winning both the BC Juv and the KY Cup Juv, and his dam, Swingin on Ice, a nice runner in her own right. With Buckpasser coming up 5X on the Dam's Dam side, what's not to like?

I am a future junky too,although I am proud to say I had Funnycide,Street Sense and Giacomo.I also had Perfect Drift at 97-1.too bad not to show. I just pray some day they expand the betting interests to all the nominations. This year thanks to a hefty triple I hit just prior to  pool 1 . I put good bets on both Denis of Cork and Etched. Good luck to all.I hope I am popping a cork 1st sat in may.

Ferragamo. Remember the name. Here is a Vindiction colt by Spinner (Conquistador Cielo) who can run with War Pass early in a race and still have the stamina to go on and on and on. If you saw his race at Oaklawn on Saturday, you had to be excited. He broke slowly and like a gazell, actually leaped to the lead in the blink of an eye, doing it effortlessly. I have never seen a horse move like that. He gracefully flung his body forward, gobbling up the ground wih his huge stride. The first quarter was :21 and change, the half at :45. For a good-sized colt, he cornered beautifully like Sunday Silence and won for fun. I don't believe the jock hit him once, easing him to the wire (1:09). And, he's in great hands with Larry Jones, who is reported to be placing him next in the same race that Hard Spun won at Turfway Park in late March. Here is a true Seattle Slew grandson who runs like his grandpa. He may not make it to the Derby this year because of his lack of seasoning, but that's what was said about Curlin. If not the Derby, we will see him in the later 3-year-old races. Love the simple one-word name. "He's a winner, Mrs. Genter."

A nice bet on War Pass. The 6-1 is much better than the 8-5 0n Derby Day. He would have galloped in FOY.

Smaller bets on Cork & Mischief.

Guess I will heed Sandy's wisdom and take a second look at Fletcher & Carolyn Gray's homebred/Larry Jones trained, Ferragamo. After he broke his maiden outing at Delaware Park last September, he got beaten like a drum at Jason's old  Philadelphia Park stomping grounds to finish up his 2YO campaign, so  frankly, I had initially stopped looking right there. Think they will give him a shot at the Arkansas Derby April 12th?

I love the future wager too, although it is kind of a dumb bet. I did have Funny Cide, tho, so that alone will keep me coming back for years.  This year took Colonel John, El Gato Malo, and Majestic Warrior, with a small bet on Georgie Boy too.  Seems wide open to me with many slow times and War Pass with distance probs.

Gambling is gambling - there is no way around it.  Even if you categorize the Future Wager as a sucker bet, the risk versus the reward makes it all worthwhile.  Playing the lottery with a "Quick Pick" is more of a sucker bet than this.  At least you have something tangible to work with.  I would agree that the Round One of the Future wager is a sucker bet, but the Round Two and Three give you a better angle at choosing from a more established group.  But as you stated, the odds you get don't usually compare to what you see on Derby Day.  A conundrum indeed...

CROWN OF THORNS IS THE HORSE TO BEAT EVERYONE MUST REPENT ON DERBY DAY IF THEY DON'T BET ON THIS GODLIKE ROCK OF A HORSE. GOD BLESS CROWN OF THORNS!!!!

Tale of Ekati at 33-1. Tagg has done it before.

I got tired of my future bets not even running on Derby day that I quit playing it. With a large field every year there`s more than enough opportunities to make a big payoff with a dollar tri or super.

I had Giacomo at 25-1 in pool 2 in 2005 as my first ever future wager bet, and if I hadn't locked onto him then I might not have doubled down after Buzzard's Bay beat him in the SA Derby or on Kentucky Derby day either...Then I bet Half Ours at 33-1  the next year and he never ran another step that year...last year I bet Stormello at 47-1 or something like that and he was all used up in the preps.  So, all in all, it is worthwhile and this year I have Z Fortune covered in a significant way, with a little already lost on Crown of Thorns and even less riding on Cowboy Cal.

Big odds on Monba after pool two. This is more what I was looking for. He is definitely worth a risk at 35-1. Having said that, I must confess that I'm becoming a little concerned as to whether there will be any early speed to test War Pass early in the Derby. I don't really see any at this point, and I'm wondering if we're about to see another War Emblem gate-to-wire number on the first Saturday in May. Granted, he still has to prove that he can carry that speed for 9F, let alone 10, but if he can--uh-oh.

I guess I'm lucky because I live near TJ where I bet the Derby Future Book each year. I usually don't play the single bets but play the fields because you get 60 horses or more for the price of one.

There's never a sure thing but it makes the 10 weeks leading up to the Derby fun.

I'm excited about field 2 at 50-1 which included Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Elysium Fields, plus 57 others.

Another nice TJ wager that pays huge odds is the Place Triple Crown where your horse has to finish first or second in all three races. I was fortunate to hit with Smarty Jones and Victory Gallop and very close with Funny Cide and War Emblem before losing the Belmont.

BTW: The Place Triple Crown odds on Field B were 150-1.

I think the thing I like best about playing the future bet is that I don't lose my money immediately!!!

I took two horses in pool 2, Denis of Cork at 12 -1, and the one I took late was Cool Coal Man, which was surprising to me that he finished at over 26 -  1 when his opening line was 10 - 1. He is most definitely bred to go the distance. And the horse that finished behind him in the FOY, I will save for the longer Belmont.

The derby is rarely won on the lead, so War Pass just isn't a great bet....a horse like, say Georgie Boy, gr I winner at two---can be brought around slowly---he had extra time to fill out because he won Dmr Futurity in early Sept....now, fresh, (yesterday a bit rank) he has that look of quality.....from a little (but not much) off the pace....not sure of his breeding for 1 1/4, but the value was there......

War Pass money is down the toilet.

When headed this horse appears to be a coward.  Yes he was pinched back but so was Tale of Ekati in his first race as a 3 year old but he still finished strong.  Did anyone ask what was wrong with him ?  Or mention how he was squeezed at the start ?  Quit making excuses, the horse folds when headed ... look for Tale to bounce back strong and be ready for the Derby.  PS.... Big Brown wins by 6 in FD.

I thought War Pass would win yesterday, but didn`t have him in my top ten for derby day. Supposedly, he had a fever earlier in the week. If so, Zito should have scratched him. He looks like he didn`t like the dirt in his face and wants to be on the front end. As for Big Brown, he beat absolutely nothing in his last off the turf romp. He must have some health problems judging by his race patterns. I`m leaning towards the Peruvian horse (via Kentucky) who beat older horses as a 2yo going a mile and a half. Not sure what he beat down there and he`ll be up against the Gulfstream speed bias in the Fla. Derby.

Smittytoo... its not who he beat its how he beat them. He rated behind a very strong 45.3 half mile and then opened up IN HAND to run a very easy 1:35 mile first time ever on dirt and first race as a 3 year old.  Name another horse that EVER did that...I can't! That time is faster than War Pass's time in the Champagne !

I'm watching the "Mystery Horse" from Peru named TOMCITO.We may not know a lot about racing in Peru, but as a 2 year old, he did win against 3 & 4 year olds at 1 1/4 & 1 1/2 mile in the 2nd & 3rd leg of the Peruian Triple Crown. Not bad for a 2 yr old and he showed a great late kick. What impresses me is that his works here at the training center & his 5 f work at Gulfstream were impressive. He should work 4 Furlongs or so, tomorrow. If he comes up short in the 1 1/16 Florida Derby, he think he will run BIG in the Kentucky Derby & for sure in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes....