BloodHorse.com

Search Blood-Horse.com

Five Things We Learned From La. Derby Weekend

1: Pyro is a monster. He confirmed what a lot of people thought after watching the Risen Star, and this time, the skeptics (admittedly, I was one of them) have no excuses. His style, pedigree and eye-popping late kick make him perfectly suited for the Kentucky Derby. He and War Pass are so far ahead of their rivals right now that it is scary. And if War Pass should falter in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend, Pyro will undoubtedly jump to the top of most everyone's list. Pyro made a believer out of me. Am I ready to put him ahead of War Pass right now? Not so fast. Let's see what happens this weekend.

Personally, it will be hard for me to root for Pyro knowing that he will most likely be retired after the Breeders' Cup. Best case scenario, he has six more races until going to stud. Enjoy him while he lasts.

2: You can't enter a tough prep race after a significant layoff and expect to win. Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior both proved that. All week we heard how great both were training, but when push came to shove, neither were ready. We should have known something was up when Barclay Tagg said Tale of Ekati "wasn't where he wanted him to be" in January. And apparently the foot injury that Majestic Warrior suffered before the Breeders' Cup took more out of him than Bill Mott knew (or let on). Also, to think that J Be K was ready to tackle that competition after two sprint wins was absurd.

Will any or all of them improve for their final Derby prep? Probably. But they better make significant progress or kiss the Derby goodbye.

3: Blackberry Road lacks that little something extra. It's a shame because I really like this horse. But for the third time in a row he put himself in position to win and did not have that zip in the final furlong. And unlike the previous two, he had no excuse in the La. Derby. I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but like the others above, it's now or never time.

4: Visionaire was impressive. It's not so much that he won the Gotham (admittedly, the competition was much weaker than La. Derby), but how he did it. A few days before the race Michael Matz told me that he would likley scratch Visionaire if the track at Aqueduct was too sloppy, so I was a little surprised that he even decided to run him. It was a calculated gamble that paid off. Because of the fog on TV it was impossible to tell just how much ground he ate up in the stretch, but suffice it to say that his late move to catch Texas Wildcatter was impressive - especially for only his second try around two turns. Don't forget that he broke from post 10 as well, usually a death trap on the inner track.

5. There wasn't a lot of value in Pool 2 of Future Wager. I know a lot of you will disagree with this one, but I just didn't see anything that was worth the gamble. Maybe that's because War Pass and Pyro look to be in another class, however, even horses that I am still high on were not returning enough for my liking. Court Vision (16-1), Colonel John (17-1) and Visionaire (19-1) are perfect examples. At this rate, I can't see where their Derby Day odds will be significantly higher than that. Z Fortune at 33-1 may have been the best bet out there.

21 Comments:

Pyro vs. Visionaire on the Poly track... Look for Visionaire to pull off the upset.  This will be Visionaire's third time routing and seems to get better each time. He lost by 3 to Pyro when they met but the pace was really slow and he got caught behind slower horses on the rail.... you heard it here first....

draynay 10 Mar 2008 11:56 PM

Agreed, Pyro is the second coming. I still have high hopes for my Future 1 pool, 48-1 bet, on Yankee Bravo who ran very greenly through the stretch, but straightened out at the end with a nice finishing flourish.  

Timely writer 2 11 Mar 2008 12:04 AM

It's amazing how some people still won't give Rodney Dangerfield..er!..PYRO the respect he deserves after DEMOLISHING all these so called Derby runners in his last 2 races. I'll try and bite my tongue somewhat until after the Ky.Derby when PYRO blows past everyone, and then maybe, MAYBE, people will agree that he's the real deal. But I get the feeling that even if he wins the Derby in hand, we'd have to resurrect Secreteriat and pit these 2 in a match race just to prove that Pyro is a really, really Great Horse...If you thought Street Sense's/Barbaros' Derby victories were impressive, just wait until we watch PYRO destroy this years field!!..crossing my fingers he stays healthy, till'  then all you haters & doubters!!  PEACE!!

Slew.em.All 11 Mar 2008 6:15 PM

Love Pyro! As I've written previously in this blog, you'll get a good price as people discount Shaun Bridgmohan. However if Winchell Stables snagged Garrett Gomez, the flavour of the month for the past couple of years, everybody would be riding the Pyro bandwagon.

I just hope for a War Pass/Pyro series that brings back memories of Alydar/Affirmed.

Not to worry as Pyro won't win the Triple Crown. Only two horses won it with silly names (Whirlaway and Seattle Slew). The rest all had militaristic sounding names.

Remember you heard it here first.

Alex 11 Mar 2008 8:38 PM

No doubt Pyro a legit Derby contender- has shown great heart and clearly doesn't care about having dirt kicked in his face-- two key attributes in the cattle stampede called the Derby. And that's the point: let's see if some other nice horses can now step up-- Tagg's Elysium Fields being one, seemingly having a great upside. Two others in that same category are two of Zito's charges-- Cool Coal Man and Fierce Wind. Although not on my early list, what Matz has done with Visionaire  simply amazing-- not at all sure where he fits into the big picture, but Visionaire's connections are getting their money's worth and more from the job Matz is doing bringing this horse along-- from show ring to Fair Hill training track--what an extraordinary horseman. History will understandably always link him to Barbaro, yet as a trainer I think that's the beginning of Matz's storyline.

Bryce Be Quick 12 Mar 2008 8:28 AM

Blackberry Road is starting to remind me of Giacomo, knocking heads with the best 3 yr olds and coming up short.

If he gets a beyer close to 100 next time and War Pass gets a pace meltdown, while Pyro has traffic trouble Blackberry Road's followers will be rewarded.

This years derby i believe will be either like the above or  similar to the B.C. Juvey....very chalky

Doug 12 Mar 2008 1:01 PM

Granted Pyro has done everything right so far this year but I have to question who he has faced so far. Preps in April like the Wood, Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby will give us more of a clue. Right now Asmussen is looking for another horse to challenge War Pass on the front end so he weakens and Pyro has a chance to pass him in the long stretch at CD.

joey woge 12 Mar 2008 1:27 PM

i can't get on the pyro wagon because war pass beat him 3 times. war pass might have distance limitations so i will look to others but pyro would have lost to indian blessing and proud spell on the day of his last 2 races. look at the times.

ace 12 Mar 2008 6:04 PM

Blackberry Road ??? The horse is slower than mud !!! his best Beyer after NINE races is only 90... give me a break.

draynay 12 Mar 2008 11:15 PM

You may have forgotten that Pyro carried 6 pounds less than Z Fortune in the Risen Star, and didn't look as impressive at equal weights in the La. Derby.  Z Fortune getting the outside post and high weight 2 races in a row is tough, but if he pulls it  off and wins this Saturday, especially on a track that will surrender a good Beyer figure, you will have to look at him very closely.  How many 5k stud fee horses sell for 80k?  He is a special horse and arguably has the best trainer and jockey in his corner as well.

I don't think there will be a pace meltdown this year, but War Pass will be out on the lead and may be too far out there to reel in for a deep closer, so a stalker, like Z Fortune, could have the perfect style.  Also the experience of not having a good post and having to overcome the extra weight could pay dividends down the road.  Blackberry road should be played for 4th on superfecta tickets only I think.

wilson 13 Mar 2008 10:43 PM

There is no doubt about War Pass' ability but Pyro is the biggest monster there is right now. Taking into regard Pass' pedigree, front running style etc, we cant forget that Pyro's sire Pulpit wasn't known for stamina either so to me they both have alot to prove, but for now Pyro is "THE MAN" though that will most likely change after the Tampa Bay Derby (read as War Pass annihilates Tampa field!) My conclusion, only on 3rd of May 2008 will we find out who really is King.

ezzy 14 Mar 2008 4:41 AM

Pyro looks great, I expect War Pass to get tested this weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby and it's just what he needs,Visionaire caught my eye when privately purchased and helped fill out a decent trifecta when I keyed him multiple times in 2nd and 3rd two races back and again last weekend where I had him on top only multiple times and I like the improvements he is making. Z Fortune isn't out of the picture as he is also improving. I'll have to wait two races out in California to seperate that group but it does look like there are a couple of potential threats there although runnin on that fake surface doesn't excite me. As for Blackberry Road, at this point the only thing he reminds me of is Imawildandcrazyguy who clunked up to fill out the superfecta at 50-1 or so in last years Derby which incidentally I had more than once for a great payout. Elysium Fields is an interesting new comer and Zito's Cool Coal Man seems to have good upside. Suffice it to say, it is too early with so many questions to be answered to pick one or two with conviction. That's why I love this game. So many angles and surprises. I know I won't make a final decision where my money goes until the big day.  

thw wiz 14 Mar 2008 8:16 AM

Um, don't think War Pass annihilated the Tampa Bay Derby. I think it annihilated him. Z Fortune similarly annihilated by Rebel. Blackberry Road, never there to be annihilated in the first place. Visionaire - couldn't see him, too foggy. Cool Coal Man/Elysium Fields - does anyone actually know how fast they ran in the Fountain of Youth? According to his fans, Pyro isn't fast and he hasn't beaten much, but if that's so, the same can now be said for virtually any three year old you can think of. Pyro can handle bad trips, mud in the face, he's agile and nimble, has a furious closing move. He has a reasonable chance of getting the Derby distance, and he's done all his running on dirt. And it isn't that he can't run fast, it's that this year, he hasn't had to. As far as I know he still has one of the highest high Beyers on the list. While nothing's a certainty, there are good logical reasons to like Pyro. Maybe he hasn't run as fast as War Pass, but he's been plastered in mud and dirt and boxed in and fractious in the gate and he's as game as they come. As a three year old he's not looking too bad. Today was the first time War Pass didn't have it his own way - and it didn't look pretty.

geowarrior 15 Mar 2008 10:07 PM

there's a couple of Cal breds that look live right now---thought that one in Arkansas rated better than Georgie Bou, but Georgie has a nice way about him----hope he doesn't peak--he needs to rate better cuz he sure gives a nice kick-----but that Rebel winner---he has more natural speed----he'll be a good price and sure looked good today......

Matthew Wohlken 16 Mar 2008 8:04 AM

Georgie Boy (hate the name, love the horse) showed tremendous Derby potential with the way he closed on a relatively slow pace, but what really impressed was the way he kept running after the finish, I think this horse for a first two turn effort now shows the most potential of any other 3 year old this year, so far. A lot of racing remains to be seen, but this guy is for real. As far as Sierra Sunset's win, it looked good ,but I don't think this horse will like going much more than a mile and an eighth. And I'm tossing War Pass's effort in the TB Derby, too early to give up on this talented horse,I'm sure a lot of people got wet on those show bets, that's a good lesson in betting horses.

predict 16 Mar 2008 5:28 PM

Derby money on a California horse is a waste of money this year.  Visionaire is a horse to watch and I have not given up on Tale of Ekati.  Pyro just wins as a 3 year old and maybe...just maybe, Big Brown wins the Florida Derby by 6 and tips the bandwagon onto his broad fast shoulders....  PS for those who bet on War Pass in the Future Pool use that ticket when toilet paper is in short supply.

draynay 16 Mar 2008 11:46 PM

So maybe War pass had a bad day at Tampa Bay but he'll be back and with a vengeance! Watch this space!!!!!

ray ray 17 Mar 2008 11:47 AM

throw out Georgie Boy at your own risk!!--he won the Del Mar Futurity on the most tiring track in the country, a very large field--and Del Mar has traditionaly had the top two year olds (along with Saratoga, of course)....so what if the West's been weak the past few years, so what if there's only poly track--he's passing some very good horses with startling moves---and, like Pyro, has only really run for 1/4 mi in his preps....he was turned out early because he won the futurity, which is a plus for him, cuz he's really filled out great--there's no doubt Georgie's a quality 3yo---he's passing horses that AREN'T tired--he's outkicking them, and only real good ones can do that......

Matthew W 17 Mar 2008 11:25 PM

I'm embarrassed by all the bickering about who's right and who's wrong, who's gonna win who won't... I'm amazed all the nastiness that comes from most of you, Isn't everyone entitled to their own opinion? Do any of you really know who will win? I should say not.  Personally, I'm rooting for Pyro, but I'm not going to fight over it, since I really don't know what will happen a month and a half from now.

thoroughbrednut 18 Mar 2008 6:07 PM

Another 1/16 mile and Yankee Bravo catches Pyro in the LaDerby!  The only problem is he has the "Storm Cat" Jinx so he'll have to overcome this in the KY Derby.  

Householder 05 Apr 2008 2:39 AM

Based on Yankee Bravo's off the board finish in the SA Derby I'm throwing the winner of the LaDerby out.  Pyro looks to be in line for future minor awards.  

Householder 06 Apr 2008 11:51 AM

Leave a Comment

All comments are moderated and must be approved before they are posted. The blog author reserves the right to edit or omit any comment.

  (Appears with your comment) (required)
  (Will not be published) (required)
  (required)

Triple Crown Talk

Resources

Click Here to download BloodHorse.com Widgets!