The Florida Derby is One Prep You Can't Miss

 

Is anyone out there looking forward to the much Florida Derby as much as I am? The way I see it, it is the most intriguing and important Kentucky Derby prep of the year.

 

I love the fact that there are so many plot lines:

 

Will Elysium Fields improve upon his terrific runner-up performance in the Fountain of Youth? Does Big Brown deserve all the hype he is getting and is he is as good as his March 5 allowance romp indicated? How will Peruvian sensation Tomcito stack up against American colts? Is Hey Byrn the real allowance winner we should be focusing on here, not Big Brown? How will Fierce Wind come back after winning the Sam Davis over Big Truck, who is now a proven Derby contender? Is Smooth Air, who seems to be the forgotten one in this field, ready to jump to the top everybody’s contender list?

 

These are all questions that will be answered this Saturday. What also makes it fun is that all six of them desperately need a big performance if they have any shot at qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. That’s because none of them have more than $90,000 in graded earnings, which will not be enough to qualify come May 3. Because the Florida Derby is a $1million race, a first or second place finish should get it done.

 

So how will the race come out? Well, here’s my guess.

 

This is a difficult race to handicap for the simple fact that that you have so many unknowns, as I mentioned above. On the one hand you have Fierce Wind, Smooth Air, Tomcito and to a certain extent, Elysium Fields, who all have proven themselves in stakes competition. Then you have Big Brown and Hey Byrn who haven’t faced anything, but have looked so impressive in their allowance romps.

 

My gut feeling is that Tomcito is the real deal. This colt has won four of five starts in Peru and has dominated every one, including a 3 ½-length score in the 1 ½-mile Group I Derby Nacional. He has proven undoubtedly that he loves the distance, as three of his four victories have been a mile or more, and he is bred by Street Cry, who I seem to recall not so long ago had a Derby winner. Plus, he has been working exceptionally well since coming to Florida (had a bullet five-furlong, :58.80 work at Gulfstream March 17).

 

I really think Tomcito has faced more and has been better tested than anyone in here, and that will be the difference. I would not be surprised to see him win by two lengths or more here. If anyone beats Tomcito I am going to say it will be Big Brown. Everyone that I've talked to seems to think this horse is a freak and is primed for a huge race. I know his owners, trainer and jockey feel this way. The questions are, how will he respond against competition that he has never seen and will his inexperience cost him?

 

I’m going to say that Hey Byrn is over his head, Elysium Fields will bounce, Smooth Air will have trouble with the distance and Fierce Wind will be competitive but won’t have enough.

 

I am not big on speed figures or rag sheets. I like horses that are well-bred, peaking at the right time, and have been tested at the distance. Tomcito is the one.

 

Comments

I agree, this race appears to have more questions than answers. No big names with solid beyer figures to boast. Yet this Tomcito horse and Big Brown are intriguing. I agree with your assessment that it's between these two. I believe both are not Grade winners in the US.  Definetely an interesting race to watch. For either one of these two horses or for that matter, any horse running in this race to be considered a Derby win candidate, they must finish this race with a 100 Beyer plus, or you will have to throw them all out as a Kentucky Derby win candidate.

 

BMC Racing 25 Mar 2008 10:55 PM

I think Big Brown and Tomcito will finish a close 1-2 in the Florida Derby, although I'm not sure which will be first. Tomcito has more legitimate credentials, but Big Brown could have at least as much  talent. The other starters in the race are certainly solid, and could make things interesting, but in the end, Big Brown and Tomcito should be alone at the wire, possibly by at least a few lengths.

I think we're looking at two potential superstars here. Big Brown has looked like an absolute monster and gone about his job in a professional manner, despite inexperience. As for Tomcito, he is very compelling to me, partly from viewing a few of his races, and also because Invasor made me a big believer in South American runners.

I'm really looking forward to Saturday.

Johnny 26 Mar 2008 12:43 AM

Elysium Fields, Fierce Wind, Big Brown, Hey Byrn, and of course Tomcito all are interesting possibilities. How bout this, you heard it here first. DO NOT discount Face The Cat. A lack of distance breeding perhaps but this is the speed favoring Gulfstream track and not the Kentucky Derby. Great connections. I'll have him in my gimmicks.

the wiz 26 Mar 2008 8:45 AM

Does anyone know if this race will be shown live on TV?  I know HRTV is going to be showing Dubai races all day.  Thanks!

Watcher 26 Mar 2008 9:09 AM

I agree that a 100 Beyer plus must be run and Big Brown did that with ease in his last race.  The question is what if he post a 105, are you then jumping on the bandwagon?  Pyro has not posted anything over 95 as a 3 year old.  When Big Brown wins the Florida Derby that will be back to back Beyer figures over 100.....what then?

draynay 26 Mar 2008 11:08 AM

Watcher: The Florida Derby is on ESPN2 at 5 p.m.

jshandler 26 Mar 2008 1:03 PM

It's unbeleivable how ALL these people think Big Brown is the 2nd. coming of Citation.WHO has he beaten?..Nobody,thats who!Those speed figures in Gulfstream Park are bogus anyways.He's going to face a legit runner in Tomcito,who also has whipped-on unknown quality in Peru,but he's battle tested and has proven that he can win at the Classic distances against large fields.We shall see how Big Brown reacts when he's bumped,jostled and "really" has to run down the stretch against this tough field.His running style is perfect for the speed-favoring track,though.What excuses will his backers use when/if he flops this Saturday?...I can't wait to serve "boiled Crow" to ALL Pyro haters/doubters come this May.Don't believe the Hype,until the go through adversity,(see War Pass).Yes,it looks impressive when horses have it easy on the lead,but once they get challenged and how they react is most important.Pyro has gone through all of this already,with flying colors,he's kept his form from last year,and is improving race-by-race with the objective being this 1st Saturday in May!....see you this upcoming Sunday(wink-wink)!

Slew.em.All 26 Mar 2008 2:48 PM

IF Big Brown records anything close to 100 he should be considered a very serious horse going into the KD.  Especially with the extra time off before that race. I found out that Face the Cat is in this race after I wrote my memo. Been wondering what happen to him, since the barn move. I agree that this is a interetsing entry. This is Helen Pits horse. She developed him into a potential champion and than the horse was sold and she lost her chance to go to the Derby. Now Pletcher has him. Seems really unfair to Helen since she put many hours into this fine prospect. If Face wins, the credit should go to Helen, not Pletcher. You all will recall the last horse she developed last year. His name was Curlin. Asmussen got the credit and deserving so, but someone needs to also recognize what she did as well. Some day, hopefully she'll get a shot at the Derby...

BMC Racing 26 Mar 2008 4:00 PM

Big Brown has his work cut out for him right from the get-go. He better be off well from the 12-hole, especially with that short run into the first turn.

Johnny 27 Mar 2008 1:08 AM

Who has he beaten ? First of all he won easy as a two year old in a large field on turf. As a 3-year old he ran off a 45 and change half mile and a 1:09 and change for 6 furlongs... and he did it EASY... The 12 post will be no problem for him because of his speed... when he dominates and wins easy with a 105 Beyer tell me what you will be saying then?

Draynay 27 Mar 2008 1:30 AM

I am going on the edge in this interesting Florida Derby and will be rooting for Da'Tara...  I believe that he is Zito's ''under the radar'' horse and is ready to pounce. I love the Tiznow's as they are late in blossoming like he was. Love the connections...  Zito is the best ever and would not have him in here if he did not think that he had a shot.

Mindy Corbin 27 Mar 2008 11:12 AM

This race will be a jumping stone for two horses, Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields. All respect to Peru, I leave out Tomcito simply because I can't predict a horse I have not seen run on US tracks (doesn't mean I won't include him in exotics). Big Brown has been impressive, but not against anyone I respect. So when accessing the rest, I have to lean towards the proven duo. First, Fierce Wind. This grandson of Dixieland Band and AP Indy should get better with additional dirt. His finishing pace improved last out, showing me a patience you need to stretch out. Second, Elysium Fields looked very green but very talented in his last race. Bounce? Are you kidding me? Look at his two works after that last race. Nope, I say look out and watch the films again. That last race goes 10 more feet and Cool Coal Man runs 2nd. My eyes tell me these two head to the Derby in very dangerous form.

El Kabong 27 Mar 2008 11:15 AM

Tomicito?  He beat horses whos total purchase price was over $10 million Peruvian dollars.  That converts to $1.49 US.  He did look good in the video I saw of his last race.  Huge stretch rush to win "the Kal Kan Derby" going away. Big Brown looked awesome, but so did Hey Byrn in his last two. Prado was under wraps on him from the top of the lane to the wire. It is the most interesting Derby prep so far. Everyone needs earnings and it looks like 50 horses want in the big dance right now.

KNOWITALL 27 Mar 2008 11:37 AM

TOMCITO is gonnna show he's a champion!! He's good!! Check his races on You Tube!

Paco10AL 27 Mar 2008 2:17 PM

Exactly my point,Big Brown has a maiden win (on turf), a win on dirt against turf horses (only 4 foes),again I ask: Who has he beaten?..nobody yet! We'll see what happens when he's up against serious opponents this Saturday. By the way:dont put too much emphasise on Gulfstreams' Astro-turf like track and it's final splits, its a speed favoring track. See you Sunday Draynay, it's on Now!!!...lol

Slew.em.All 27 Mar 2008 2:25 PM

Big Brown first time on dirt and first race as a 3 year old runs a 45 and change half mile... a 1:09 and change 6 furlong and a 1:35 and change mile while wearing turf shoes and under wraps.... name another horse to EVER do that ?

Watch out BB wins by 6 from way outside !!!

draynay 27 Mar 2008 6:01 PM

I'll be thrilled to get Tomcito at 12-1 (the ML) but doubt he'll go off with such long odds. We've been spoiled with runners in recent years succeeding contrary to historical stats, e.g. winning X with less then Y number of starts. Still the lack of victory at Gulfstream from the 8 slot out to the 12 hole by dozens of starters at this distance is hard to ignore.

Big Brown looks to have a great turn of fragile foot but if I was IEAH stables - after getting that poor PP - the decision to scratch and try the IL Derby or Wood would've been a done deal.

Tomcito, as has been pointed out, hasn't an issue with going the distance, around two turns, has fought in traffic, has taken clods of dirt in the face, has learned to rate, exhibited a desire to win, and with his recent workout can fire a bullet. Is he the next Invasor? Not likely, but neither is Big Brown the next Curlin.

A bad trip can end any horse's hopes but the degree to which so many horse-writers are dismissing (by pure ignoring him) Tomcito and conversely are swooning over Big Brown when discussing the FL Derby is amazing.

Glimmerglass 27 Mar 2008 6:22 PM

Like Big Brown's breeding, but coming out of that 12 hole-- I don't think so. I hear what is being said about a bounce for Elysium Fields and cannot discount it, except this horse reminds me a little of another Barclay Tagg charge, Gretchen and Roy Jackson's Showing Up, who Tagg always has ready and fires. What makes you think Mr. Tagg won't have EF ready Saturday? And talk about a horse bred classically to go the classic distances--  EF is El Prado o/o Dreams, giving him Buckpasser 3X via the Dam's Dam. Sorry another classically bred, Majestic Warrior, starting almost as far out on the island, Post 8, as Big Brown. Guess we are going to find out if Bill Mott's charge as good as I think he is. Finally, Fierce Wind-- Dixie Union o/o Post Parade-- Nick Zito's "other-other" horse, not be confused with the "other" horse, Cool Coal Man, both of whom much better bred to go the distance than what I keep hearing is "The Horse". Note to BMC Racing-- like you, I think the world of Monkton, MD's Helen Pitts--first class horseperson, and while I know losing Face the Cat part of the game, losing him to Pletcher burns me almost as much as Curlin leaving her barn for Asmussen's.

Bryce Be Quick 27 Mar 2008 7:43 PM

This is all speculation. At any rate, there could be factors that could dull Big Brown's getaway from the post: other horses acting up that could rile him; or getting bumped hard; or just not being completely ready when the gate is opened. He's never faced this level of competition before either. I happen to like Big Brown, but if he doesn't break cleanly, his race could be compromised; against lesser horses, he could overcome that, but in Saturday's field, he would have a tougher time. Everything needs to go well, and the break, especially from where he'll be, is critical. This isn't only about speed, but also about getting away in good order.

I'm still slightly inclined to go with Tomcito on Saturday, but I hope Big Brown also runs huge. I think he will, and may the best horse win. I certainly hope both Big Brown and Tomcito get enough earnings to make it to the Big Dance.

Johnny 27 Mar 2008 9:27 PM

Elysium Fields galloped out strongly after the FoY, has had 5 weeks between races and has been working bullets. What makes you think he is going to bounce??

Perplexed 28 Mar 2008 9:32 AM

Perplexed: I could be totally wrong about Elysium Fields. Many people like him to win here. I just like others horses here more. Barclay Tagg is one of the best, so I would not be surprised if he won. I just was not impressed with anyone in the Fountain of Youth. I thought the fractions were slow and Elysium Fields had a pretty good trip. We'll see what happens.

jshandler 28 Mar 2008 12:13 PM

GP`s stretch is less than 900 feet and the surface is very speed favoring. This will play against Tomcito`s closing style. I still like him Saturday, but think a track with a longer stretch would have been a better option. Elysium Fields should get a good stalking spot and may inherit the lead around midstretch when the speed tires. I like him over Tomcito and the Cat horse.

Smittytoo 28 Mar 2008 2:13 PM

Intriguing race--you can make a case for at least half the field. I do not see any runaway favorite. For that reason, I think we are going to see a surprise winner and perhaps have more questions unanswered than answered.  

JNP 28 Mar 2008 7:16 PM

Have you people all lost your minds?  Big Brown was 6 wide in his last race coming into the stretch and won drawing off in hand. A 104 Beyer first time on dirt and this horse does not scare you to death? Tomicito... he comes in 5th. The top 4 feature Smooth Air, Nistle's Crunch, Elysium Fiels and Big Brown wins easy with a 110 Beyer shaking the Derby crowd to their core !!!!!

draynay 28 Mar 2008 9:39 PM

Tomcito?...Sounds like another Mr. Friskey (15 straight wins in South America before wiring the Santa Anita Derby).  So what if he wins the Florida Derby?  

Householder 29 Mar 2008 2:20 AM

Mr.Frisky...my geography is off after 18 years.  He was the Puerto Rican two year old champion and Puerto Rican Horse of the year before realing off wins in the San Vicente, San Felipe, and Santa Anita Derby.  He brought a 16 consecutive win steak into the Kentucky Derby.  He finished 8th.  It sounds like Tomcito has already lost a few in his native country.  A foreign horse will never win the Derby. I would just as soon bet a Cal Bred gelding.  

Householder 29 Mar 2008 2:33 AM

I can't wait to see tomcito run, but even so I think big brown will prove his detractors wrong. I had the pleasure of seeing both his races and he just looks the part physically. Elysium fields looks the best of the rest here and has a shot to pull the upset. Tagg wouldn't be there if he didn't have a shot. I backed funnycide in the derby not so many years ago and was rewarded. He may have not been the best that year but he was KD day and thats what counts. This looks to be the best prep of the year and you can't discount anyone.

WBH 29 Mar 2008 3:55 AM

I believe Tomcito has only lost one race, and that was a second place finish; and he won the Derby Nacional (Peruvian Derby) at the age of two.

I really hope Tomcito and Big Brown finish 1-2 and prove to be the horses many people hope, and expect, them to be (myself included); however, there is come cockiness here involving Big Brown's prowess that is, in my opinion, premature. Yes, this appears to be a potential star, but there are other horses in the Florida Derby that have already run in stakes company against better competition than Big Brown has faced.

The idea that Tomcito has raced against "inferior" horses in Peru is also a comment that isn't sporting, especially since many of us probably aren't familiar with the racing in that country or in the horse that will be running in the Florida Derby today.

To underestimate an opponent, especially one that is still relatively unknown and potentially very formidible, is borrowing trouble. I'm looking forward to a great race, and I hope with the large field of quality horses, all contenders run well and finish up in good order.

Johnny 29 Mar 2008 11:55 AM

There really isn't that much in this race. Think about it! It is now the end of March and in one of the leading preps for the Derby we are banging the drum for a 3 year old from Peru, a potential super star who has run only twice, and a bunch of young, expensive horses who haven't done much lately.

If Dutrow is right then Big Brown will win this easily. If he is wrong, then condider Hey Byrn. He appears to be well-conditioned and is coming up to this race very well. A real longshot could be B.B. Frank. He was claimed from Zito in early February for $62,500 ; won that day, and won a non-winners of 2 rather nicely. It seems he was gelded sometime last year. He was purchased as a yearling for $130,000! Maybe with his mind on racing rather than things romantic, he will realize his potential!

wista 29 Mar 2008 2:15 PM

Big Brown is the real deal. I had hoped Tomcito would be one of the top two as well, but looks like he just missed out on the KY Derby, albeit with a credible third.

We saw two huge performances today: Curlin and Big Brown. Now I can't wait to see War Pass come back in the Wood.

Johnny 30 Mar 2008 12:26 AM

Big Brown was very impressive in yesterday`s race. He looked as if he could have won by more if not running a bit erratic in the lane. If War Pass bounces back in his next and wires the field, we`ll have what might be a suicide pace in Kentucky. Tomcito didn`t run all that bad for a horse that was off for about five months running on a speed favoring surface. He may not be able to get another prep in time to get the graded earnings required. Maybe the Belmont. I guess Smooth Air will now go to Louisville since he has the money.

Smittytoo 30 Mar 2008 10:36 AM

Well... what I said would happen did and Big Brown ran away with it and in the process put in one of the biggest performances in the HISTORY of racing... NO HORSE ever ran those splits and won by that margin in racing history when you consider it was his first time at two turns on dirt and first time at the distance.  All those first and he nearly set a track record.

I don't know what more you need but the Derby chase is over Big Brown is it!!!  I told you.....

draynay 30 Mar 2008 10:48 AM

Big Brown is talented,but let's see him run on a regular dirt track and Not speed-favoring Gulfstreams'.Everybody wins on that track if your close to the lead.And dont take the final splits too seriously,they're speed-biased.Churchill Downs is a whole new ballgame.I don't care what people say,but if he runs those same splits at C.D's,he'll end up in Last place,and he for sure will have to face other speed type foes.There's a couple of preps still to come,so we'll see who comes out of those races.My Money is still on Pyro no matter what!

Slew.em.All 30 Mar 2008 3:34 PM

I've always been enthusiastic about Big Brown and never said he wasn't impressive; but I also believe in respecting other good horses, and you should know as well as anybody that in this sport, anything can, and often does, happen. The Kentucky Derby, in my personal opinion, is the hardest race to win and it takes a lot of things to go your way, not just natural talent. With a field of 20, and so many things that could go wrong (or right) for a horse, I wouldn't discount anyone.

I'm glad Big Brown ran so huge, and I readily admit that even if "my" horse War Pass wins the Wood, he'll need to turn in a freakish performance for me to put him above Big Brown; and I don't think going lights out in his final Derby prep is the idea. So having said that, Big Brown is indeed the "big horse" coming to Louisville. He has been nothing short of spectacular, and I just hope his feet stay in good shape

(I just heard that Big Brown's Beyer for the race was 106, compared to Barbaro's 103 in 2006).

As for Tomcito, this is a very nice horse, and ran very well considering his lay-off. I think with the extra furlong, Tomcito could be right in there, although he probably won't have the money to get to the party. A comment was also made about the Belmont Stakes, and I think Tomcito would probably be well suited for it, where the big track and distance should play to his strength.

Johnny 30 Mar 2008 3:55 PM

Johnny-I'd agree about the derby.

It's not about whos the most talented, it's about who doesn't get bumped the most. I'd go as far to say that the Derby doesn't really mean a whole lot. With 20 horses it's a matter of luck not talent.

The field should really be limited to 12 at the most. If in fact the derby is the best of the best of 3yo's, then we should treat it as such and stop letting horses in who have no business being there.

WDK 30 Mar 2008 8:36 PM

Did you people not watch the Florida Derby ? Did you not see the greatest performance of any horse at this age in history? Big Brown bolts from the impossible 12 spot takes the lead in a blistering 45 and change and dominates. Yes we are all aware that things can happen when the gate opens but if you can't see this is clearly the Derby winner barring something strange happening than you know nothing about athlete's and talent.

Big Brown is in a another league than these horses.  He has won on turf, dirt one turn and dirt two turn by large margins.  Please, all of you pick Pyro, War Pass, or some California horse... it will only make my Big Brown win ticket more valuable.  

draynay 31 Mar 2008 11:38 AM

"Greatest performance",?..Oh please,did you not see Spectacular Bids' Bluegrass win? Bellamy Roads' Wood Memorial? Sunday Silences' Santa Anita Derby? War Emblems' Illinois Derby?..I can go on & on about impressive performances, the fact is he did it on a SPEED FAVORING TRACK!! Like I said, Big Brown is a good horse, but Churchill Downs is NOT Gulfstream Park. A lot of the so-called contenders are falling by the way-side,so by the time all Preps are ran we should have a solid core of Derby Contenders,not to mention the others with no chance.To win the Derby you need everything to go your way.Watch what Pyro does to the solid Bluegrass field!!!

Slew.em.All 31 Mar 2008 2:23 PM

Draynay, you're putting Big Brown's Florida Derby performance ahead of some other pretty good horses to say the least.

As far as the KY Derby is concerned, this is a field of 20 horses not 12. What if Big Brown doesn't get an ideal post position? What if he has to break along the rail and gets shut off or in close quarters? Even with his speed, what's he supposed to do then, run "over" horses? Or if he draws post 20, I don't think they're going to lay out the welcome mat for him. He was able to outrun and clear 12 horses in the Florida Derby, but in the KY Derby if he's way outside to begin with, he'd have to outrun more and better horses, including War Pass, before making up any ground; and he'd be expending more energy in a race that's a furlong longer.

No matter where he breaks from, if he gets the lead or sits off it, War Pass will probably be with him, something I actually hope doesn't happen, because if the pace is too hot, that could set it up for Pyro or a closer.

I obviously don't know what the scenario will be, and that's even more reason why I won't take anything, or any horse, for granted, especially in this race. Even the best horse can sometimes be the victim of circumstances.

Johnny 31 Mar 2008 5:11 PM

That horse was so juiced up for that race it wasn't even funny. They don't test for drugs in florida but wait until the derby when he comes in dead last because they can't juice him up. War Pass is the real horse. Watch how he bounces back in the wood!!!

Big Brown... Yea Right!!! 31 Mar 2008 10:05 PM

Where do I begin... Slew no horse in history first time at two turns on dirt has put in that type of performance running those splits and winning by that margin ...none!

Even the great Barboro on the same track ran a full second slower before he went on to dominate in the Derby.  Big Brown runs a 104 then a 110 Beyer and Pyro has yet to break 100 as a three year old and you think he is in the same league? Wake up!  He can't even beat War Pass.

Johnny... It does not matter what post he breaks from in the Derby...he has the speed to be where he wants to be and my guess is he will sit right off the leaders tail which could be War Pass.  Factor this... it will be his second time at two turns on dirt and should improve which will put him at a 115 Beyer for the Derby.  What horse do you think can keep up with that ?  Like I said before, put your money up and bet heavy on those other horses ... forget about what you think you know about racing, the facts are this this horse is something we rarely see he is simply faster and more talented than the others... Big Brown will win the Derby by 7 lengths or more.

draynay 31 Mar 2008 11:25 PM

Even if GP was 'speed favoring' Flordia Derby Day, Big Brown also went a 135.3 mile on a varient of 24! track...won by almost 12,  off a 6 mo lay off..in his second lifetime start. Then proved it was no fluke 03/29.

Face it y'all...the horse is a monster. I just hope his feet stay on.

cfoxo 31 Mar 2008 11:31 PM

Slew... are you kidding me? Bellamy Road? Spectacular Bid in the Bluegrass ??? He ran a 46.3 half and only ran against 3 other horses and your comparing THAT to what Big Brown did?

draynay 01 Apr 2008 10:29 AM

To say that Big Brown's performance in the Florida Derby was the "greatest" of any three-year-old in history is stretching it a bit, don't you think?  I remember a horse that ran in the 1973 Belmont Stakes and he had a pretty good performance to (lol). I think his hypothetical Beyer figure was 139.

Johnny 01 Apr 2008 12:36 PM

I,for one could care less about Beyers & final splits, especially on a speed favoring track.The only reason Pyros' beyers are lower is because they were crawling the first part of the races,and He"still" came Flying at the End, blowing past everybody like a Rocket.He's improved a lot from last year, has one more Prep to set him-up,and his trainer Assmussen has said that Pyro has out-worked Curlin when breezing/training them together. And I'm pretty sure Big Brown is no Curlin. NOBODY on track for this years' Derby has a Closing Kick like Pyro,thats a fact.It doesn't matter if they go fast or slow,Pyro will be the Fastest when it counts,and thats Down the Stretch.He's tractable, adaptable, has shown to have multiple moves in his Preps and will run on Glass if need-be. Like I said before,if people think Big Brown can set those same "splits" at Churchill,and win,then they'll be in for a Rude-Awakening.!!

Slew.em.All 01 Apr 2008 1:07 PM

What did Big Brown do?..beat-up on a field of non-Derby contenders.Obviously you haven't watched Bellamy Roads race, point being that was more impressive looking than Big Browns, and we all know what happened in his Derby race.There you go with splits again, they dont matter much when comparing them with others,every track is different.And I HOPE you're NOT putting Big Brown in the same league as THE BID!

Slew.em.All 01 Apr 2008 1:35 PM

Slew: no horse ever ran that quarter and that fast a half in a mile and a eighth race and won by that margin before the Derby...none. No horse ever!  On the same track he ran a full second faster than Barboro just two years ago.  Like Barboro, he is undefeated and will remain that way after the Derby.  I will enjoy cashing in my Big Brown ticket at the Derby and continue to wonder how you can't see the awesome talent when it smacks you in the face.  Big Brown will win by 7 or more.

draynay 01 Apr 2008 2:55 PM

Big Brown will win the Derby and Pyro will finish in the money if he can find a way to somehow pass War Pass.  Big Brown is only has to pass one horse and thats the lead horse.  Pyro will have to pass 15 or more.  Visionaire might be more horse than Pyro we will see very soon.  I will also give Tale of Ekati one more chance in the Wood.  I am just looking to fill out the bottom of my Tri ticket. By the way... I did watch the Bellamy Road race ...I was there! and his splits were not as fast at a quarter and a half and he came out near the rail not the 12 post.

draynay 01 Apr 2008 3:57 PM

Draynay, first I was wrong in saying your comment was "greatest" performance ever, when you said "one" of the greatest.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Big Brown and War Pass go head-to-head, unless Big Brown plays the stalker. War Pass likes to be on the front end, and I just hope he can go the distance. I'm looking forward to his Wood Memorial, which will tell us if he's truly back. It's now or never for him, so I'm hoping for the best. Go, War Pass!

Johnny 01 Apr 2008 5:20 PM

Never said he wasn't talented,he obviously is.I'm saying he's beaten suspect horses on a biased track.Barbaro wasn't as head-strong as Big Brown seems to be,they tend to get discouraged when things dont go their way,ala..War Pass.Remember when people thought HE was unbeatable?That being said:the K.D. is a totally different scenario.The only way I can see Big Brown winning is: if he gets an uncontested early lead(highly unlikely),and/or Pyro getting into Really Bad traffic trouble(very possible).Big Browns' handlers are quoted as saying that he does not like to be headed,which means he has to be in front.So,whats going to happen when he's getting pressured throughout the Race?The only serious high-speed cruising horse out there is War Pass,and I'm hoping he wins big next weekend,just to keep the pace honest for the Derby...This is what it's ALL about folks,everyone has their own opinions and favorite PONY for the Derby.And NOW you're predicting he'll"win by 7 or more"!..You've got brass ones draynay.!....to be continued!  lol.         hey jshandler:is this what you had in mind when you started this blog?Hope you're enjoying this banterring going on buddy.lol...I'm loving it!..

Slew.em.All 01 Apr 2008 5:28 PM

Big Brown a few weeks ago first race first time EVER on dirt ran a 104 Beyer with the rider never moving his hands.  All year NO other 3 year old has touched a 104 and you think they have a chance?

Please name for me the 5 horses you think can run a 105 in the Derby and remember Pyro has not passed 95 yet...

By the way Pyro has had 3 chances to beat War Pass and has been whipped everytime... when will you accept the fact he can't beat him?

One more thing... Big Brown has only been out twice and his third time out should be his best and gets 5 weeks of training and rest to make sure he is at his peak.... watch out !!!

draynay 01 Apr 2008 11:59 PM

Ekati was a half length winner as was colonel john...both didnt look like the winner midstretch...big brown was a beast all the way around the track...Ekati and colonel looked like they peaked in their races...BB the sky is the limit good luck trying to beat him in the derby with those two...Zito should aim for the preakness with war pass hes hopeless at 1 1/4 in the derby...u guys agree??

dotcom 06 Apr 2008 2:44 PM

Yes !!! People site history for the reason Big Brown will not win the Derby.  But he is not racing against history he is racing against 19 other horses that need a miracle to beat him.  It is very hard to come up with a horse other than Pyro that has any real chance and Pyro will have to pass a dozen or more horses to win.  Big Brown is the only logical choice.

draynay 07 Apr 2008 12:06 AM

Hey, has anyone heard of a 2 yr. old phenom who has been running away from 3,4 and 5 yr. olds since he first stepped foot onto a racetrack? Sure you have. He only has 3 starts, but has equally improved and impressed with each one. This brilliantly simple horse with a simple name was born April 10,2005. He is now, 3 calendar years old today. With all due respect, I've been reading some of your comments concerning this horse, and naturally I agree with the ones that make sense. As for the others, put aside your statistical, analytical, handicappers mentality for just a minute and take this in. Speed favoring tracks are not partial as to which horses they show favor to. You dont need a speed favoring track to break from the 12 post and get good position. You simply need to be fast. Dutrow had said this horse was breezing like a rocket at Palm Meadows. In his  maiden race,1:40 1/5, a 12 horse field, going 2 turns at Saratoga. [I still have'nt gotten over that one]. Great horses make their own "good trips". This horse was tagged an "alpha-male" type the first time he worked in company,even with older horses he never wanted them near him, or let them get the better of him. A true stallion, from the same mold as the great Seattle Slew. His talent and ability is what sets him apart from his  "wannabe" contemporaries[i.e. War Pass]. I made a trip to GP for the Fla. Derby just to see this horse. TV coverage did not do him justice. Strutting   and bouncing around by himself with his neck arched, he was saying to me "I love what I do, and I'm going to be the best at it". It was a beautiful thing to see. When he came back after the race I looked at his abdomen, he wasnt even panting. It's been 30 long yrs.,with a lot of heartbreaks and close calls along the way. But thats the sport that we love. Dont let a skeptical attitude cause you to miss what you've waited so long for. Let this horse remind you, that the glass is still half full. And....

       ENJOY THE RIDE !!

3 CROWN DREAMIN' 10 Apr 2008 1:51 AM

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