Can anyone out there properly explain the numbers given this weekend?  Specifically, the beyers and chef-de-race performance point (PF) numbers for the SA Derby and Wood.  Tale of Ekati gets a 93 beyer and Colonel John a 95.  PF points given (the lower the number the better) were a -67 for Tale of Ekati and a -45 for Colonel John.  I understand that the Wood was run on a supposedly drying out and tiring track but c'mon.  So Tale ran a far better race?  Don't think so.  According to PF points that -67  for Tale equates to running to Par for a Kentucky Derby WINNER.  I've said all Derby prep season that there is a bias against the West Coast horses due to the synthetic surfaces.  El Gato Malo couldn't break a 100 Beyer when running a 133.2 mile.  There are other glaring instances of shaky numbers assigned.  But Colonel John can't break 95 for a 1.48 1 1/8 coming home in 23.80?  Something's out of whack.

Cant see Court Vision at all.  They walked home in Wood. Agreed pace in Derby SHOULD be fast, but how often they all back off and someone gets away on easy lead.   I love my horses to not do well on Keeneland preps thereby boosting price on Derby day.  I hope Pyro does not win Blue Grass,  Like to get 5 or 6 to one on him in Derby. And i love Proud Spell for the Oaks, but wish I had Prado or Gomez. Looks to me like trainers of Pyro and Proud Spell use Keeneland strictly as safe preps for horses that are already fit

Finally, the converts (yes, that's you, Jason) are beginning to recognize what we brave few fans have known all along - Colonel John has the tools to get the job done on May 3rd.  The track won't be an issue - it certainly wasn't for his sire!  I too was baffled by the Beyers, but a friend told me that the numbers are largely based on what the beaten field ran last time, with lengths in front added into the mix.  Still - totally bogus number for the Colonel.  But that's okay - he's not running for a Beyer number - he's running for the roses!  Court Vision is a nice horse - but not at quite the same level as the top tier, I think.  I came away from the Wood with a new appreciation for War Pass.  He won't get the mile and quarter with the hot pace predicted - he is guts all the way through - a real free wheeling street fighter.  Glad to see him redeemed.

After the weekend's races I am still a Pyromaniac. War Pass looked wobbly in the last stretch of the Wood and should be considered for Mile and Sprints. I don't think he has the heart for the classic distances.

Colonel John came on strong but I feel that Blackjack Bob should've have taken it.

Still its shaping up for a good Derby. Just that some of the names have changed. I also think that slightly shorter distance Preakness may be the most interesting of the three races at this point as some of the pretenders may come back for it.

Pretenders? I'll let you guys fill out the field.

Hot pace ??? What hot pace ?  Who are all these Derby horses that will set a hot pace ?  Only two horses can set any type of pace and that is War Pass and Big Brown there is no horse faster to press either of them and Big Brown will be happy to rate off War Pass.

The Beyers tell the story and since no horse has broken 100 other than Big Brown few have any chance at all.  Big Brown will be going at two turns for the second time and we all know he will improve going two turns on the dirt a second time. Col John is not in the same league as Visionaire or Pyro so your just throwing your money away.  Big Brown ran a 104 first time on dirt and a 106 from the impossible 12 HOLE his second time out.  Is it hard to imagine him running around a 110 in the Derby ?  What horse can run with that when none of them have even broken 100 ?  Stop kidding yourself unless Big Brown trips and falls this one is over.  Big Brown in a cake walk.

Colonel Johns Beyer figure was way low!!!!!  That SA Derby was a true test with traffic and all...  What an explosive turn of foot.  He swerved outward when hit by a left handed whip,  but quickly gained control in an awesome stretch drive.  His daddy (Tiznow) ran all over those dirt tracks...  This guy is for real and is my overwhelming choice for the 1st Sat. in May...  Go John !!!!

Stop with Eight Belles.  She beat a small and mediocore field in the Fantasy.  Court Vision had a super fast pace to close on with 2 horses that were dead and still could not get there.  War Pass better get the same uncontested trip War Emblem got or he won't hold up for 10 furlongs.  a very questionable top 7 this week Mr. Shandler.

The thing about Col John is he didn't HAVE to win SA Derby to qualify for the Ky Derby...trainer Harty wanted a good finish and he got it--AND the win---now---Big Brown HAD to win the Florida Derby, and from the twelve post he gunned and won--but at what toll? Methinks Colonel John wins or gets beat by "Brownie".....

Court Vision to me is a logical winner come Derby Day. Wood was only his second start in '08 and should improve off his closing third. Also, Gomez had the choice to ride Colonel John and chose Court Vision.

See,like I frequently mention here,don't take the Beyers too seriously!It's HOW they get the job done thats important...Tale of Ekati had a perfect trip and barely beat a floundering,tired,but game War Pass.He'll be a non-factor in the Derby,and War Pass will be a pace presence,thats it!..Court Vision is a plodder like I said before,one of those hard knocking types that Always get-up for minor awards...I'll Gladly take 5/1 on Pyro's future book Derby odds,Gladly!!

Hot Pace???  This years "Hard Spun" award goes to Bob Black Jack who now has enough earnings to be the 20th horse.  I think 106 2/5th for six furlongs is still the world record...which he holds.  War Pass can never head this horse.  BB better like dirt in his face.  The SA Derby will once again play a role in the KY Derby exotics.  

Court Vision was made to run the Derby, has trained and raced nicely, and will not disappoint Mr. Mott come Derby time. Visionaire's pedigree less clear, but for reasons similar to Court Vision and Pyro, what with all the early speed, the race could set up nicely for him. Have been beating this drum, so let me get out the mallet, again: while superlative horseman Michael Matz will forever be linked to Barbaro, the job he is doing with Visionaire, in many respects, even more impressive. Now, if we are going to touch improbables with the likes of that truly lovely girl, Eight Belles, I would like to place a seemingly pure turfer into the speculative mix, H. G. Motion's magnificant Adrinao (A George Washington or Showing Up in the making?) or Golden Spikes, who Jason advises, based on his conversation with the trainer, will not be ready come Derby time, but with that nice 2nd place finish Saturday, might the connections have second thoughts? Finally, akin to those who correctly  now talk about War Pass' redemption, I am looking for a badly overheated Elysium Fields to do likewise for Mr. Tagg (yes, I can hear you all collectively laughing now-- let's see what happens at Keeneland, first, okay?). Sidebar--I see where Signature Move eased up Saturday-- any word whether he came out clean and sound? No longer a Derby-thread discussion, but would like to see this horse run again down the road.

The race will be very competitive with the new speed added to the mix, that being Recapturetheglory and hopefully Bob Black Jack, a horse that certainly is a worthy contender. Colonel John has a good shot, and Court Vision keeps trying and may be sitting on a big one.

War Pass and Recapturetheglory will be the pacesetters, and Big Brown may be there as well or perhaps stalk those two along with Bob Black Jack. It will be quite interesting to see how these four horses play off each other.

In the third flight (or maybe second, depending on what BB and BBJ do), will be Pyro, Colonel John, and hopefully Court Vision. Not sure where Tale of Ekati will be laying. If things unravel up front, it's their curtain call.  

This looks like a race pitting flashy speed against steady workmanship. If the speed carries, the grinders and closers will have to make up a lot of real estate to get home in time. Front runners have won before and last year Hard Spun almost pulled it off. This could be the year that speed prevails, and with four of them, I have to think at least one doesn't arrive late.

After these groups comes the rest of the calvary, but most likely we can forget about Eight Belles. Her owner said today that she's probably headed for the Oaks.

Of course everything depends on the KY Derby variables, and there are many that we've talked about from time to time. There is also the Arkansas Derby, and the Bluegrass this weekend followed by the Lexington one week later.

If I had my wish, the finish of the great race would look like this:

1) War Pass

2) Court Vision

3) Big Brown

4) Recapturetheglory

5) Colonel John

Big Brown will get pretty much the same position that Barbaro got and run pretty much the same race -- assuming he gets out of the gate, can handle the track, and can handle the Kerby atmosphere. He was a touch skiddish before Florida. Then the question becomes the trip for others like Pyro. Whatever, I'd like to see a Triple Crown on Affirmed's 30th Anniversary. It's time for a great horse. Big Brown looks like a freak, but the Derby's the Derby. If Pyro wins the Derby he has a better chance to win all 3. He's better conditioned, has much better feet, has more than one running style, can handle croweded surroundings, and seems to be a mentally tough by relaxed horse -- can't believe he's by Pulpit.  

I totally agree with Slot's comments! What's up with the beyer speed ratings for the SA Derby? Of the three winners, It was stated that Recapturetheglory got the best Beyer Speed Figure, a 102. Colonel John got ONLY a 95, and Tale of Ekati a 93. How can anyone say that the Illonois Derby winner had a better race than the Colonel?  I believe that NO horse has won the Derby without a 100 beyer or better?  Not for certain, but believe this is the case.  If so, the Colonel is bucking the trend. There is definetely a bias this year on the west coasters.  The Colonel looks to be the best contender from Socal in a few years, so beware of the "Full Bird", driving down the stretch!  Perhaps Nakatani will finally win his first KD.

Saw the new hot older horse on these poly tracks out West, Heatseeker--run wide both turns and easily beat Circular Quay at Oaklawn--another polytracker beats him a nose (Tiago)---'think Col John rates big look on first Sat----good to see trainer Harty coming out from under that Darley stable fiasco---now he's a player on the big stage---now it's HIS chance--HIS name---and Corey Nakatani gets HIS chance---Big Brown or whomever better put lengths on him at the 3/8ths pole cuz The Colonel will be'a'chargin' down that CD stretch......

Yes, I agree with Jim, that Big Brown will take back---and depending if Bob Black Jack and War Pass go, he'll take 5--10 lengths back, as will Colonel John and Pyro---there's gonna be a huge far turn scramble but I think War Pass will outlast all the speed and still be there in midstretch--where I disagree with Jim is on Pyro---I think both Big Brown and Col John are better....these look like the "big three" for the Derby this year: 1st: Big Brown 2nd: Colonel John 3rd: War Pass but I have it very close up front.....

Pyro's Dosage Index seems a bit high.  If memory serves me right Pulpit led the Kentucky Derby about a mile before fading to 4th behind Silver Charm.  He is a nice horse but we have had high hopes for other Pulpit kin at 1 1/4 (Sky Mesa).  

True Beyer is not the end all be all but still no one has answered the question... what horse is suddenly going to run a 105 or 110.

That is Big Browns area so tell me what horse is going to suddenly jump up by 10 or 15 on Derby Day ??? If you can't break 100 as a three year old you have little chance of winning a Derby...

A horse that has received little mention is Big Truck. Tagg always said that this was his best derby horse, and I think that the horse proved it in the Tampa Bay Derby.  In recent years, the Tampa Bay Derby has been a significant prep race.  I could see this horse getting a piece of it, even off of the layoff.  Tagg will have him ready to go, and this horse will be one of those that has gone quietly under the radar come derby day.   In addition, the Bluegrass will be a very interesting race with Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, and Pyro.  Cool Coal Man is another one that is going a little bit under the radar.

I may be crazy, but I'm certainly not going to consider Denis of Cork a toss out.  Have you watched a stranger Derby prep in recent years than that Ill Derby?  Seven horses going around the track like a merry-go-round, not a single observed move from any horse at any point in the race.  They broke out of the gate and finished up in virtually the same order. I think the race told us very little.

I'm convinced that Denis of Cork still has loads of potential.  If he makes the Derby field on earnings and trains well at CD (a track he has previously trained well on and won a sharp maiden race in his debut), look for a big effort.  He may not get the whole job done but could still earn a nice check and sweeten those exotic payoffs.

For you understandable non-believers in both the overheated Elysium Fields and the turfer Adriano, both sure liked the all-weather surface over at Keeneland this morning, each ranking in the top 10%, with Tagg's guy turning 4 furlongs in 47.60 (6th fastest), and H.G. Motion's guy no. 1 of the 56, with a 46.60. Guess it is a good thing they don't run any Triple Crown races on anything but dirt? :-). Still watching Adriano's connections, regardless--at the end of the calvary charge and some hot fractions, this guy could be among the ones not gassed? He is one of A.P. Indy's kids o/o Gold Canyon. No lack of pedigree there, and has shown he has heart.

Johnny, I agree I think the triple crown is a good possibility because Big Brown and Pyro are much better at a mile and quarter than the rest of this field.  Either one could win the triple crown this year.

For those who don't think Beyer figures matter look at last year's top three finishers, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin.  They were the only three horses to have Beyer figures good enough to win the race heading in.  This time its Big Brown, Pyro, and War Pass, although Big Brown's figures are current and the other two were done as 2 year olds...and it doesn't look like War Pass should get the distance. Making an argument than a horse is going to jump 15 Beyer points and win the derby, like Court Vision or Colonel John or Tale of Ekati...at a mile and quarter is wishful thinking.

If Court Vision cant get the job done in the Wood with a blistering early pace and  a sluggish finish he's never going to get it done, certainly not with more horses to weave thru in the Derby.

Colonel John is the horse to beat come May 3rd

Why hasn't anyone said anything about smooth air. He will be mid pack and be in good position around the far turn. Take out BB and he wins florida derby by 5. He is 1 of few horses improving entering the derby. Owner/Breeder combo, feel good trainer and no name jock will equal huge odds in derby.

Householder: Dosage Index?..Are you serious?..what were Smarty Jones&Afleet Alex's?.Didn't they"almost" take the Triple Crown?..your reaching for something thats not there.And as for Pulpit;he got injured during the Derby and finished 4th. on pure gameness&heart!! Pyro's grandsires are A.P.Indy/Wild Again,both of whom won the 1 1/4mile Breeders Cup Classic!.nuff'said! Whoever thinks that BB is going to"take back&rate" is foolish.He's too head-strong& his handlers have said that he doesn't like to be behind horses.Which means,he'll have to outrun War Pass& Recapturetheglory,to name a few,from the gate,while being pressured ALL the way.So,it's inconceivable to think that BB will be able to run those kind of splits and still win!He'll "spit the bit" and give way to the more "experienced" and patient horses.The Ky.Derby is NOT the right time to try & teach him how to Rate!...Again,watch what Pyro does to the Bluegrass field,which by the way Draynay;is shaping up to be the Toughest prep so-far,and Not the Fla.Derby!..stay tuned.

What Did I say last week! Colonel John is this years Derby Winner! He had the look of a Derby winner showing grit and tenacity down the stretch at 'Anita. Eoin Harty reminds me of a young Billy Turner. A sharp horseman. 'CJ' has the right amount of experience pedigree and class to win the Derby. I love the fact that Big Brown will be hammered at the windows at Churchill since BB & War Pass, who was exposed as the miler he is, will take truckloads of cash on Derby day. I don't see how all these speed horses gather all this support. You know the pace will be crazy on Derby day. It'll be great to see 'CNak' get his first Derby victory. I also like Visionaire to close and get a piece of the pie on Derby day. I haven't felt this confident about my Derby Pick since Real Quiet in '98.

I was at Santa Anita last Saturday...

I saw...

I believe!!!

When I thought all was lost and there was not enough ground left to catch Black Jack, Colonel John not only caught him, but passed him and kept going..and going...and going!!! Now I have laryngitis I cheered so loud. You guys can keep pontificating, I saw HEART and TALENT. Remember Tiz Now??? I do.

Slew.em.All, you continue to amaze, most recently with your thoughtful (if not a tad mocking) response to Householder-- yes, H-holder, Pulpit's 4.14 a tad high by historic standards, but also yes, Slew.em, that Pulpit was one gut-check horse on the track, and based on my untrained eye this summer when visiting Claiborne, a fine guy to have in the breeding shed with your mare, particularly when that mare is none other than Wild Vision (Wild Again). Pyro's breeding just fine, even inspired, in my estimation. Just wish he had a "white hat" trainer like a Mott, a Matz, a Motion, a McGaughey, a Tagg... still one of my favorites come Derby Day-- what a heart-- be it bumping or cattle stampeding, and regardless of the amount of dirt kicked in his face in the process, nothing is going to faze this guy, he will dig down deep. Pulpit, you stamped this Boy. He may not win, but he won't be beat--if we see any performance short of a total character one, with focus, grit and effort, I will, for one, be very surprised. Buckpasser, 5X Sire-Sire's side, would be proud, even if he didn't understand your superior work ethic. PS- stopped voting in that horse bracketology when Buckpasser easily outvoted in the first round by Cigar-- nice horse to visit at the KY Horse Park, but really--

Colonel John's victory looked a whole lot like Tiago's last year...and like Colonel John, Tiago did not get a big speed figure despite the visually impressive run...and Tiago was out of the money on Derby day...I believe in speed figures as one of many angles to use, and the fastest runners get the highest speed figures.

I would like to take this time to thank each and everyone of you for your very wise opinions and insight. Thanks to your careful observations and deliberations on all the possible Derby contenders... I will enjoy cashing my Big Brown ticket at 3-1 when he has every right to go off at even money.

Please watch Visionaire in the Bluegrass.His breeding suggests he'll love the poly.It might just be just what Matz is looking for in his last prep.This guy is improving at exactly the right time and is certainly being overlooked!!!!

Slew.em.All.  Smarty Jones...yes even he smoked Tapit-9th (who had a far superior female distance line than Pyro) I think the other Pulpit horse who has managed the Derby would be Essence of Dubai (Equally Hyped) also 9th losing by 15 lengths to War Emblem.  I would expect Pyro to be in the same position.  Purge, Sky Mesa, Tapit, Essence of Dubai...all equally great Pulpit horses.  Unfortunately the Derby is more than a mile to a mile and sixteenth.  

Looks like Monba and Cowboy Cal are Pletcher's last chance to get into the Derby. Both of these horses need to place one or two to get in. Momba's last race was excusable but can he win?

In response to Wilson Prince. Colonel John is not Tiago, (ala Holy Bull). And we see what he did in the Derby. I don't believe speed figures are all that important, at least when it comes to the derby. This is what they said about dosage index. Sunday Silence beat 2 Yr. old champ Easy Goer in 2:05. You can't put a number on class.

kings silver son

Billy D. I am so with you on the Colonel!!!   He was truly awesome!!!!

I typically always throw out west cost horses in the Derby. CJ impresses me though, I do not worry about the beyers any longer as everyone has there opinion on them, but with the way races are run these days, either snails pace or blistering, getting a true read on a beyer and what it actually meant is absurd.  Close like CJ did or like TOK did and put a beyer rating on it, is like oil and water, they don't go together.  One exploded home the other crawled home and got lucky and only 2 points seperate them.  2 completly different races and pace. If is was perfect you just bet the highest beyer each race and you win.  It don't work like that.  Back to CJ.  He will have to be a price for me to play like 10-1 but he sure is on the bottom off all gimmicks.  I have read a lot of blogs and no one is talking about what a poor ride on El GATO MALO. He was never closer than 4 wide, moved at the top of the turn about 4 seconds to early and flattened out.  When he was in the stretch he was 8 wide at least.  He might be a miler horse but I also think that was a horrendous ride by Flores who I happen to like a lot, I also think he is going to be a gimmick horse.  My Selection is Pyro, I hope he gets beat this weekend so I can have 6-1 odds.  

Draynay, Big Brown deserves even to be even money WOW.  Any horse in the Derby under 6-1 is a play against.  I like your guts, sticking to who you like, and BB scares me, but he is why the Derby is the best race to make some huge money on the exotics, because 20 horses anything can happen.  Does anyone in here have a great way to bet the derby.  Example Me and 9 friends chip in 72 dollars a piece and box 10 for the Derby.  We have had some good success that way.  What about supers?  Any ideas?  Would love to hear them.  Ant

The Blue Grass looks to be an interesting race, I am interested in how Big Truck will perform in here. He hasn't produced a triple digit beyer yet, but may be capable off his breeding, being by Hook and Ladder, the leading 2 year old Beyer champ for several years in the late 90's early 2000's, with Big Truck one of his first crop foals to hit the races. Could we have a new sire to watch out for here? I think so.

Also , of interest in here is Miner's Claim, an outstanding runner at two at Woodbine, comes off a good performance in his last as a prep for this spot, and he finally meets some of the best three year olds in this country, I think he will surprise a lot of us.

As far as Pyro winning this race, he would have to be willing to go all out , when he doesn't really need to, so I will steer clear of him at the windows.

I was impressed with Colonel John in the SA Derby. Coming from behind after BBJ had a clear cut lead. But I have a big fear when you play out all the scenarios. What if War Pass gets decent fractions in Derby. Big Brown does not clear out at the break. This bugs me. He might become a derby horse. Or if it is a speed duel, which closer to play. I feel my top 5 will be close Pyro, CJ, Smooth Air, Big Brown and Court Vision. But I might change after next week

Well the Derby is not far away and this will be your last chance to see Pyro and Visionaire before the running of the roses.  I expect Visionaire to pull off the upset.

I am hoping for a Pyro romp but I will stick with my upset prediction.  Look for another slow pace and a charge at the end.  I think traffic will get to Pyro this time. My Derby prediction is simple Big Brown on top with Visionaire, Pyro and Smooth Air finishing 2,3,and 4.

Agreed..Pyro doesn't have to win,just show his usual closing kick,which should get the job done anyway.If not,no worries,the Derby is his objective!...Therefore I'm looking for a Pyro/Miners Claim/Cool Coal Man/Visionaire Superfecta box!..and a Miners Claim/Pyro exacta,simply because Miners Claim will be Fully cranked for this one.If it rains,the Jockeys will overthink the situation and it'll be a strangely run race...Exciting times are Here people,Enjoy the run-up to the Roses!...Class should prevail though! PYRO ALL THE WAY,BABY!!

Please stop with C John !!! He won by a half a length and caught tiring front runners... BIG DEAL ! This is a two horse race and to think  anything else is nuts.  Will Pyro catch Big Brown? He couldn't catch War Pass so its hard to imagine anything but a Big Brown romp.  Look at all the races its easy to see the cream.

Pyro was 2 when he couldn't catch War Pass.  You think he Pyro wouldn't have won the Wood or the Florida Derby?  Pyro would have smoked him both times.  It isn't what you have done, it is what you have done recently, all Pyro has done is won.  War Pass won an allowance race. Big deal.  Hopefully Pryo runs 4th Saturday and all the Big Browns fans make Pyro's odds much better.  If 2 horse's stand out it is Pyro/Big Brown, they will not run 1-2.  You can print that.  

Lol... Pyro has had plenty of races to break a 100 Beyer and he has not as a 3 year old.

You can't break 100 going into the Derby and you have almost no chance of winning.  Pyro has been running behind very slow splits we will see what kind of kick he has when he has 15 lengths to make up on Big Brown at the top of the stretch. One thing is for sure... Pyro will have to catch Big Brown and NO HORSE has EVER come close.

C John caught the world record holder for 6 furlongs.  Pyro caught My Pal Charlie who was in his first stakes race and ran 113:86 (so he probably was not too tired).  Yankee Bravo finished in about the same position to both C John and Pyro.  

The Wood Memorial horses just aren't as good as those in the Santa Anita Derby or the Blue Grass. War Pass's only chance to win the Derby is a sloppy surface . If the track is really wet, he may be able to do what he did in the Breeders Cup . . . but I just don't think that he is the same horse this spring as he was last fall.

The final quarter mile in the Wood was very slow. Too slow !

Colonel John's effort was indicative of the kind of horse who can win a 1 1/4 mile race. The speed is going to be there(War Pass,Big Brown,Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory) for a closer or two (Colonel John,Pyro, Visionaire) to take advantage of a really fast pace.

I can't imagine the KY Derby being "a two-horse race." I think 18 other very good horses may have something to say about that. Everyone wants to win this race so bad, that you can throw away a lot of preconceived notions that this is a done-deal for any particular horse.

Colonel John for example, should be a huge factor. This horse is potentially as good as anybody else out there.

Another exciting thing about horse racing is that when we least expect it, the sport throws out a surprise.

After this weekend you will all join the bandwagon.The horse is Stevil!!!

Good luck on BB.  You are set and that is cool.  Johnny said it best.  There are 18 other horses in there and anything can happen.  First time BB gets bumped or tangled out of the gate or gets post 20, then is he going to be 15 lengths ahead.  Wish I was your friend, I would take all the money you would like on BB VS Pyro or even just your win bet. Anyhow good luck that is what this is for good speculation and opinions.  We all differ.  Pyro did run to beyers over a 100 as a 2 year old.  Just in cast you forgot.  

I agree with Jim Gray in that King`s Silver Son will be the new horse we`ll be talking about after this weekend. Sure, he`s only won one race, but he`s had traffic problems in most of his races. I don`t bet front runners in the Ky Dby. I`d love to see a Top Avenger or Groovy type pace where the opening 3/4`s goes in 45 and change. I look at Beyers numbers, but I don`t put too much stock in them any more due to the poly surfaces varying so much. Didn`t Recapturetheglory get the top number last week? I`m looking for another weirdly run BG Saturday with maybe Miner`s Claim pulling off an upset.

Antman... come on... we all know strange things CAN happen...my point is simple Big Brown has GREAT early speed and jumps quickly out of the gate.. check all his races...

And yes I am aware that he ran 100+ as a two year old... I am also aware that he lost THREE times to War Pass and War Pass is no Big Brown at this stage so get use to looking at Big Browns backside its all Pyro is ever going to see.  One last thing...look who is running in the Bluegrass... a bunch of horses who have barely broken 90 Beyers as a matter of fact no horse in the field has broken 95 more than once as a three year old... and they are suppose to run with a horse posting 105 on dirt like its nothing??? Come on...

Beyers,beyers,beyers,..Draynay: why aren't you touting Recapturetheglory? He got a 100+ for his last too!,and there's NO WAY he's better than Pyro!..Pyro has ONLY ran the last 1/4 in Both of his races this year.If the splits were any faster,he'd have higher beyers,thats not His fault! And he still closes like a Freight-Train into Slow splits!..Imagine if they go faster up-front?.And he's "asked" to Go earlier than usual?..Me thinks he'd win by the length of the stretch! He IS the Fastest Horse down the lane,without a doubt...Mess with Pyro,and you Shall get Burned!

Pyro is right where he belongs ... with a bunch of three year olds who can't break 100...lol... some can't break 90. Another slow race coming up with a mad dash in the stretch.... not exactly what he will or any other horse will see in the Derby.  Beyers don't matter? Well you take the one who can't break 95 this year and I will take the one who averages around 105.... we'll see who wins.

Big Brown is Exactly the same as War Pass,and we know what happened when he didn't have it his way...He QUIT!..BB is going to run into ALOT of different/new  situations in the Derby...I've seen way too many good looking prep wins by these type of horseflesh,only to see them Crumble like Blue-cheese in the lane.

Beyers and speed numbers????

Colonel John ran the last 3/8's in 35 1/5. I don't know what race Andy Beyer was watching. He has declared his distain for synthetic surfaces and his bias is apparent in his numbers. Add between 7 and 10 points and you will have an equivalent to his dirt numbers.

Pyro and Col John have had similar preps---both will have to run much better to get the roses and I think they both will---Col John lost position on the SA Derby far turn---no way he can do that and have any chance in the Derby....but Pyro and John have prepped right---they already had the graden earnings and thus were allowed to take back and finish---Big Brown had to engage from the get go--making him BEHIND--those two---maybe the best horse, but behind nonetheless, on seasoning....the thinking here is Pyro and John will be closer in the Derby and move earlier---would've loved to see Georgie boy cuz I thought he was better than John, but this years Derby is shaping out as a GOOD one: hmm, Mr Tagg has TWO nice ones, there's this Tiznow look alike out West, War Pass is all class, The Big A has Pyro, here comes the Ark Derby and Bluegrass---all is well, keep fingers crossed, and, oh--yeah......there's that big striding brown horse--that...Big...Brown.........and absolutely Beyers matter---I just think the polytracks are harder to judge---especially this years' Santa Anita meeting---that was a startling move in the SA stretch by a horse that should relish 1 1/4----I'll take the likely 8-1, he's paid well all year---otherwise, I'm right there with Beyer---you'll see him in the stretch---his stride is like Tiznow but he has a little Alysheba in him.....

I don't know that much about Beyers because I'm not a handicapper. However, if I did handicap, I would study very hard, read the Form, listen to the experts, keep up on the news, and consider a whole battery of tools and factors, including Beyers, workout and race patterns, equipment changes, pedigree, and so on. The more resources you have at your disposal, the more able you'll be to make an informed decision on a horse. And even then, with all the information you have, and no matter how smoothly things have been going, and how good the horse has performed, there is never any guarantee that it will stay that way. The equine athlete is powerful, but also very fragile, and something can go wrong at any time.

You guys have got to be kidding... Col John's Beyer was bias ??? This horse has NEVER run on dirt...Never!!! His first time will be in the Derby and you think he has a chance because he barely caught two tiring front runners???

Pyro is your horse? He has never caught a speed horse and has yet to see one as a 3 year old.  When he gets a look at it again in Kentucky he is going to be 10 lengths back at the top of the stretch or more and you think he will run down Big Brown?  He couldn't run down War Pass and had 3 tries to do it. What other average horse do you have...? Any other horse you mention does not deserve to be you are looking at a very average crop this year. Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Curlin would have punished all these horses other than Big Brown.

I am getting sick and tired about hearing how great Big Brown is and how weak the rest of the field is. I've always been intrigued with Big Brown myself, but if you keep putting this horse on a pedestal that he hasn't earned yet, it's going to make me hope he gets his butt kicked in the Derby, something I don't really want to see happen.

You are using three races to overestimate this horse and underestimate the others; even with the Florida Derby win, which was certainly a very impressive performance, that is still no guarantee he'll repeat that in the KY Derby.

All the horses have a shot. All of them that are entered got here because they did something right. Give some credit where credit is due.

After reviewing some very insightful comments it would be wise for all to await the outcome of both the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby before locking in those May 3rd bets. As all horsemen know 3yr.olds at this stage can improve very quickly. However, at this point just a few quick observations on the reigning top three:

PYRO - has been brought up to this stage perfectly with a sound foundation under him and the proven ability to rate anywhere the race dictates, as witnessed in his last start, or close with a very nice kick. His experience and tactical ability certainly will be a force to be reckoned with on Derby day.

COLONEL JOHN - Nice horse with all the breeding to get the mile and a quarter, great connections and going in the right direction. Don't understand how anyone could knock his last effort.

BIG BROWN - A word of caution before crowning this boy a superstar. Outside of his Florida Derby over a mediocre field he has had one maiden win and a condition win over non winner's of one other than.In addition to being plagued with foot problems he's light on experience - the same knock that was placed on Curlin prior to last years Derby. He may prove to be that talented but at a short price he's a big risk.

Good luck to all and keep those opinions coming, after all that as they say is what makes horse racing.    

Johnny who do you think deserves ANY credit? War Pass? Pyro? Col John, who has never even run on dirt? Who?  Big Brown is not running against history he is running against some very average horses, with VERY average Beyers. The splits in the Derby will be quicker and more like the Florida Derby. Many of these average horses will spit the bit long before the stretch and those closers will be 15 to 20 lengths behind with too much to do... Pyro should know that was his life as a 2 year old ...chasing speed he couldn't catch up to.  So Pyro's last 3 race Beyer's are 93,95,and 84 and this is your Derby horse? Sometimes you have to come to grips with the fact you can't beat the favorite.

No, Draynay, Pyro is not my Derby horse. I think I made it clear long ago which horse that is. But I respect Pyro, as I do any opponent.

Correction draynay: chasing "lone uncontested" speed,big difference.I still think Pyro is going to run Big in the Derby.He's way better than what he showed.He just didn't like the surface at Keeneland,thats all!But he sure Loves Churchill's....Does anyone know if Adriano is pursuing the Derby?..

Slew.em.All, there's a news release on the Bloodhorse site about Adriano. It appears he's likely to go, but not a done-deal just yet.

I just read on this same site that Eight Belles is still possible for the KY Derby. If she does go, then after War Pass, I'll be rooting for her!

Hope everybody reads the story.

Jason, I liked reading your list. I also think this Derby is more wide open than some people may realize. I agree with you, that with Eight Belles possibly coming, it's going to be a great party.

She belongs with most of these average horses but I still believe it is a big mistake.  Rags to Riches was ruined when she ran in the Belmont. Yes she beat a tired Curlin but she NEVER won another race...and Curlin went on to do ok huh... the Belmont was just too much.  Take the glory of winning the Oaks why run for 4th or 5th place in the Derby?

man it would suck to have Eight Belles in the Oaks future wager only to lose this way...but it doesn't look like anyone played the Oaks future wager anyway...

Speed figures matter and Z Fortune ran big enough off of a bad prior race that he is due for one more improvement with the added Derby distance.  I love the Big Brown/Z Fortune exacta.

It's not a definite thing that Eight Belles is running in the Derby; however, the trainer feels she belongs and I have to trust him and the owner to do what's best for their horse. I know it's easy to get Derby fever, but she's a very talented filly.

I'm not saying that just because a filly is good that she should run in the Derby, but then I don't think that just because a colt is good that he's necessarily suited for the race either.

Obviously the horse's best interest and well being come first; and as long as these do, then if the filly is good enough, she deserves her shot.

the filly won't hit the board, 'still think they'll run a good Beyer---namely Big Brown/Colonel John. Just can't throw out poly-horses as they won in Arkansas in derby/handicap, and Pyro's race is a throw out, I still consider him a player on the Derby stage....

Johnny... the fact that the owner of eight belles may run in the derby...what does that tell you? Do you think he would have even thought about it last year if she had to run against Curlin, Hard Spun, and Street Sense ??? Big Brown is the only horse he sees as a real threat... the rest he thinks he can beat! Most of these so called Derby preps looked nothing like the Derby... most were run in very slow splits except the Florida Derby.  Consider this no three year old has run a mile as fast as Big Brown as a 2 year old....

Draynay, we're just guessing at the connections' motivation for putting Eight Belles in the Derby. Rememeber, fillies have won this race before, not that often of course, but that's probably because in our country the females just don't get much opportunity to run with the males. In other countries, it's my understanding that females run with males quite often and are very competitive.

The times for the California horses may be misleading because of the synthetics. We won't know until May 3rd.

With regard to some of the others, Pyro will return to his form after bouncing on Poly. War Pass got some bottom from the Wood. Recapturetheglory may live up to his name. Court Vision will try his hardest to beat you. That's just to mention a few. There may be a party crasher in the mix as well. Lots of thing can happen in this race, so don't count any horse out of it.

As far as Big Brown is concerned, he looks like a pretty good horse as well.