It appears that with the possible exception of Big Brown, the east coast 3 year old contingent could be quite overrated. This could be a California sweep year in the Derby.

Jason, thanks for the good comments about War Pass. He got some bottom in the Wood, as well as showing what's really inside him. I'm just hoping he manages the distance because we all know he'll be on the front end with Recapturetheglory and possibly Big Brown and Bob Black Jack.

If Pyro was sick or injured (unless any malady happened during the race), people should have known about it to enable them to bet and handicap accordingly. From what I've read, he's OK.

I would not give up on Pyro. I am not a handicapper and pay no attention to such recent statistics.  By that standard, Street Sense should not have won and I certainly did not buy into the issues people had with the pre-Derby Curlin.  He is a good solid horse who should have no issues with the distance  The ability to display that great turn of foot does not just disappear and not every horse in the race has that ability.  I will reserve judgement until Derby week and decide if he has been overtrained, has a jockey issue, or he is good to go.

Well,..I'm still sticking with Pyro.If his handlers say the race is a toss-out, thats good enough for me. Some horses like synthetic,some don't .Like Bob Baffert said:"it makes average horses look good,and good horses look average".As far as the past 20yr. history of Derby winners having placed 4th or better in their final prep?Yeah, it's there,but until last year there were'nt any preps on an synthetic surface. And Street Sense had a prior race over Poly, in which he ran well.So,I'll draw a line through the Bluegrass,and on-ward & up-ward to the Derby!...I also like Adriano,looks like he's peaking at the right time.

I haven't been a big Pyro fan but he has all the seasoning and his been very consistent, unlike some of the rest of the derby hopefuls, so I wouldn't write him off too soon, he'll come back and bite your bum. I don't know if he'll win but he will be in the triactor

I'm still sticking with Pyro.  If I remember Secretariat did not do well in his last race before the Derby and he still went on to sweep the Triple Crown.  I am not putting Pyro in the same category as Big Red but give the guy a chance.  He was running on a track surface that he was not used to and I think that had a lot to do with his lackluster finish.  I hate it when people back a horse because he is doing so well in his preps and then suddenly he loses the one before the Derby.   Suddenly that horse is no good. That is one thing that irks me about these so-called professional handicappers. Well, if Jerry Bailey (former jockey) said to throw Pyro's Bluegrass run out then I throw it out. After all Jerry knows more about horseracing and horses than any handicapper will ever dream of knowing.    

He still finished badly for him and if I remember he wasn't the favorite Derby morning.  

I'm pretty sure Secretariat did go off as the Derby favorite.  He was 3/2.  He did run 3rd in his final prep, but that is a long way from 10th place synthetic surface or not.  I think Pyro can round out exotics in the Derby, but I don't think he'll win.  I think Colonel John wins the Derby. He has been the most consistent of this crop this year and has a good foundation. Even though the Arkansas Derby wasn't an exeptionally strong field, the California shippers finished 1-3-4.  That does say something.  CJ has been tested in his 2 starts this year so he'll have a good bottom and I think he will run well on the dirt.  I'm playing Smooth Air and Visionaire underneath for 2nd and you can round out the 3rd and 4th spot with whomever you wish, Pyro, Big Brown, whatever.  Out of the Bluegrass Stakes, Visionaire will have the best finish in the Derby not Pyro.  I can't knock people for still backing Pyro because you have to dance with the one you came with, but even before the Bluegrass, I didn't think he would be able to navigate the 20 horse field from the back the way Street Sense did.  Even he needed the rail to open up. If it didn't, we're talking about Hard Spun as the '07 Derby winner. Just my opinion.  

I'm going to keep an eye on Pyro, even though he flunked the Bluegrass. I'm not bothered by that bizarre 10th place finish, because frankly I prefer the horses from here in California. The synth vs. dirt issue will always be a problem, but so far almost every horse heading east from here have won everything, so I still have hope for the Colonel and BBJ.

The West Coast horses (3 year olds and up) look solid for once, so I expect a super performance from all of them at Churchill Downs and beyond.

All they wanted out of Pyro was a good finish--and they didn't get it---regardless of poly---they got nothing from him and they needed much more----he needed more prep--now it looks like a "Big Three" of War Pass, Big Brown and that California closer Colonel John.....the sleeper horse might be Bob Black Jack--based solely on his stride motion---he runs with his head down ala John Henry and A P Indy, thus helping his air intake---also, he rates and will rate off War Pass, who I still believe is the horse to beat---huge consideration for Colonel John, by that big freak Tiznow out of a Turkoman (Alydar) mare.......every sign says this horse is improving---dirt track or no----this horse should step up with the extra furlong---he'll have to, if Big Brown shows up---very much looking forward to this years 3/8 ths pole, at Churchill....

If I was a Pyro fan, I'd still be on the horse's bandwagon. He does have history going against him and you can't ignore that; however, this doesn't change the fact that he's a very good horse and I hope he comes back to his form in the Derby; not saying I want him to win, but I do want him to run well. Besides, the KY Derby, although the biggest race, isn't the only race. There are other big races ahead and Pyro should get his share of wins.

As for Secretariat's Wood Memorial defeat, he was fighting an abscess in his mouth and to my understanding, never really took the bit. If the problem could have been tended to earlier, I have no doubt the legendary horse would have won the race.

We humans and our equine friends live in an imperfect world laden at times with disappointment.

Pyro may not win the Derby but it won't be because he finished 10th the Bluegrass.  Soft fractions, 1st and 2nd horses were 1/2 all the way around and they shut him down after being bumped mid stretch.

Now he'll be 10-1 or more on Derby day.  What better value are you going to find?  He's the winner.

I still like Pyro and the BG helped my odds. No way was I going to bet the Blue Grass. A horse that didn`t need the bucks and also trying astrodirt for the first time. Plus going off at even money. What did the BG show last year? That a horse who won`t win on Derby day can win a big race. Same this year.

About last comment, if his works (PYRO) are weak I will toss him.  Right now the bandwagon took some water on. Although my bet will be cut in half and do more boxing than I had planned. Not a single to me anymore, But that may be a good idea as this year is wide open IF BB and CJ have any kinks in there armor.  

As for the West coast vs the East coast I always throw the West coast horse out, and my reasoning is weak fields,  they run against 5 or 6 horse fields and get nothing out of running a one paced race or not enough horse so change the pace.  ex Brother Derek, how many races he win with 5 head?  This year is the first I have seen full fields and I think that will level the playing field.  It looks like a couple of horse's that ran on that synthetic stuff can still run on Dirt, so this year I will have no bias, except against Geyego.  I have no faith in that horse. My top 5 Pyro, Big Brown, C John, War Pass, Dennis of Cork. 19 Days left and a lot of things can change.  That my early picks, I am sure they will change, as some may not make it.  What are everyone else's top 5?  PS, PYRO, You can make me a happy guy $$$$ or you will get me the I told you so.   Laters.  

Wow!..Pyro has a bad experience and he's not worthy anymore? That's OK. True Pyro fans know he's much better than that,and has been the most consistent(aside from War Pass) in his class the past 2yrs..At least he threw in a clunker now and not in the Derby.What makes you think War Pass/Monba can rebound from a very subpar performance,and Pyro can't?..Unless they find something physically wrong with him,they should continue on to the Derby.One race does not make a horse!!..Oh yeah,remember favored Snow Chief ran-up the track in the Derby,(because he didn't like the surface) then blew the field away 2wks. later in the Preakness?..3wks. in between is plenty to get him ready,he's fit enough.

No doubt Keeneland is a bizzare track, and Santa Anita has played like a turf course, but ya'gotta deal with Pyro and Col John on first Sat......Big Brown's Fla Derby was by far the best prep---the other impressive preps were both of Georgie Boy's races---but Col John passed most of the field in last 1/4, including the two pacesetters---the fact that both pace horses ran on  accentuates his feat---his Beyer is deservedly low but in all likelyhood the Derby Table will be set for this robust, calm son of Tiznow (who ran an incredible race vs Giants Causeway at CD in the Classic) this could be Tiznow's first Derby winner---I suggest Corey just keep him outside of possible trouble--DON'T GET CUTE!! Obviously, without Georgie Boy, Col John will have to beat War Pass and Big Brown---I don't think Kent D. will challenge War Pass early, I expect him to take back, and Bob Black Jack will rate, so War Pass may get a good first 1/2 mile.....if he does, he'll be in the money....if Kent engages Big Brown vs War Pass on the backstretch, then Bob Black Jack could sit the dream trip and the Colonel'll be lickin' his chops......finger lickin' good!!!! YEAH, I KNOW--he hasn't raced on dirt track yet, but I'm guessin', on first Sat in May, those all-white silks'll be prominent in CD stretch......1st) Colonel John.......2nd) Big Brown.....3rd) War Pass....also 'think Big Brown will be under 2-1........

Jason I give you props and some of you need to take off the blinders... Pyro is a toss...period. You don't run 10th and then win the Derby...plain and simple.  Assmussen made a huge mistake... you don't run a horse on Poly 3 weeks before the Derby unless you know he is going to love it. Dumb dumb dumb. Now I know why he didn't win the Derby with the horse of the year... he really seems to have no idea how to get a horse ready for it.  If you not willing to take the winner, Big Brown, then consider taking the horse that has finished closest to him and that is Smooth Air. You do not win a Derby after posting a 93,95 and 84.  Toss him or give me the money you are about to waste on him.

Antman... Denis of Cork ??????? Are you guys nuts ?  Big Brown wins this with Smooth Air, Visonaire, and Col John picking up the rear.

Pyro is still worthy, But I planned on hammering in Derby day, Now I won't and I don't need to b/c his odds will be higher.  Pyro did not run a lick in the BG.  3 weeks is enough time to rebound no doubt,  My earlier post did not post as I his the tab button and it deleted it I guess, but what I said is I heard Assmusen was at Oaklawn on Sat, kinda wierd to me, and there is no talk of scoping the horse or nothing, just plain wierd, I think it was clearly said shaun if you can't win the race leave something for the Derby, and boy did they. he did not run a lick and he was hit with the whip at least once and was urged.  Shaun was also standing up on the horse way before the finish line.  His little bump was nothing but a scare, he was not running a lick before that either.  I am just keeping an open mind, 5th or 6th I can understand but 10th.  Wow but that was only 6 lengths from 5th to 10th and he clearly was not asked for anything the last 2 furlongs.  If he wins the Derby and I clearly want him to, alot of questions will be asked about the BG. I am siding with they didn't care if they won the race unless it was a non chalant victory, they weren't going to take any extra effort to win it.  If he does not fire we all remember Circular quay.  

One last comment on the BG.  13 Grade 1's have been run on the Polytrack.  13 favorites, 13 losers.  Not too many races yet to show a big patter but 0-13. The BG was a fluke and Pryo will drill Monba in the Derby. Does that stat stand out to anyone else 0 - 13.  It says alot to me.  Good Night all.

DRAYNAY there are worse picks for 5th, just clunking up the supers, I can't have all favorites.  Smooth Air would be a great story, ain't that trainer a 70 year old man. First time to the Derby, Where you from Draynay? What will BB odds be, 9-5?  OR higher.  

The bluegrass was a shambles for all derby contenders who had the necessary earnings to get into the field. I did not uderstand why so many would try the synthetic surface for the first so close to the derby. Too much risk-reward. Why not go to Arkansas and hae one more prep on dirt? Maybe we could have seen how good pyro might be against the west coast. Now he has question marks. I can't play him as derby winner right now.

My top 5 go into today are Big Brown,Colonel John, Z fortune, Smooth Air and Court Vision. This might change because I play to win not to be right in January

Sometimes you can't beat the favorite and while it is true no favorite has won the Derby in nearly 30 years.... Big Brown does not know that and does not care he is going to run a 46 flat a 1:11 flat and 1:37 flat and cross the wire at 2:00.50 that is the plan...now who is going to beat that?

Antman, you commented about West Coast horses that you toss out because you feel they run against small and weak fields, in one-pace races, or there's not enough horse to change the pace, and thus they get nothing out of the races. You used Brother Derek as an example.

Brother Derek was my KY Derby pick in 2006. No, he didn't win the race, didn't even finish in the top three; however, he broke from the 18-hole, never was able to save ground, and to make matters worse, he threw a shoe. He had about the worst Derby trip a horse could possibly have, and yet despite all that adversity, he still finished in a photo for fourth. Granted, even with a good trip, he wasn't going to beat Barbaro, but neither was anyone else. Two weeks later in the Preakness, Derek had another compromised trip but still ran a very credible race.

Pyro never started to run in this race, so something was wrong. I noticed in the post parade he seemed to be moving his feet a lot, like he didn't seem comfortable. It looked different than what I saw from some other horses. Not sure if it meant anything, but maybe it did. But the last two races he looked like Curlin last year. I won't be surprised if he gets his workout buddy back prior to CD and has a big race. I don't see War Pass getting the distance here as a front runner. If a front runner wins it's likely to be Big Brown. I am watching what Edgar Prado does. If he chooses Adriano over the other 2 winners he's ridden that is a sign to me that he's one to watch out for. Something about him reminds me of Barbaro.

It's not like Pyro ran his race and just wasn't good enough.He didn't run at all!..If he was an inconsistent sort,then I'd be skeptical about his chances,but he's not.And I think Asmussen knows how to prepare a good horse for the big races,look at what he's done with Curlin.Though Curlin had worlds of talent,inexperience cost him the Derby.Which brings me to;  you can't run 3 times and win the Derby!Period!...Big Brown is a toss-out.Especially as a short priced favorite in the Derby.

So, Pyro is now a three-legged stool-of-a-horse because his trainer made a bum call and ran him on the synthetic at Keeneland instead of the Churchill-like surface at Oaklawn? That's not an "excuse", it's a demonstrable fact. Still love the horse and still think little of the trainer. As I have mused before, if only this horse in Matz's, Motion's, Mott's, McGaughey's or Tagg's stable, to name but four quality horsemen....

I am a giant Pyro fan and have to say that Jason has some good stats to back his argument. It is true Pyro wasn't in the race and you could tell, Jerry Bailey stated that after the fact.

So he is not in my book to win now.  I believe he will be second or third with Colonel Jon pushing him along. War Pass is moving up to my favorite to win. We will see how they work the week of the derby.

What about the rumor that Pyro's bad performance was due to his shoes?  Any truth to that one?

Pyro eats up CD and gets history!

We're all trying to find the winner of the Derby,thats why I'm sticking with Pyro.In fact,it's good that some folks are dismissing Pyro off of his last performance.His odds will be that much juicier.Nothing personal,just sticking with my Derby pick since last year..The only other horses I like are Col.John(he's game)and Adriano(peaking)..Eight Belles?.She hasn't even faced,let alone beaten, the top 3y.o. fillies!She's no Winning Colors/Rags To Riches that's for sure.Don't go chasing Waterfalls,stick to the streams & creeks that your used to,is what I'd tell them!..and KMan,your right!Adriano does remind me of Barbaro.They have the same stride(high knee action),and glide about them.

Hey Draynay. There have been three favorites who have won the Derby since 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus, Smarty Jones and Street Sense.

I don't see Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, War Pass or Pyro finishing any higher than eighth. I think the horse to beat is Colonel John. I like Smooth Air and his ability to have his workouts going long. I also like Monba who won a churchill downs allowance in 1:35:2 back in November and I like the improving Z Humor. It will be interesting to see who Prado chooses, Monba or Adriano.

There are certainly opposing viewpoints to Pyro's dull performance and I've heard them everywhere, not just on this blog. One viewpoint tosses him in the Derby, while the other gives him the benefit of the doubt thinking he's still a big Derby contender.

I'm guessing here, but maybe the type of synthetic surface is a bigger factor than just simply the fact that the horse was trying to transition to a synthetic. While we've got history staring us in the face, and history does tend to repeat itself, I will go with the view that the horse deserves the benefit of the doubt and will rebound at Churchill. Here's why I think so:

This is the second straight year that the Bluegrass has not been formful, although last year more of the leading contenders finished in the front. I'm not sure that most people expected Dominican to win it last year, in a very bizarre race. In this year's edition, the pace setter, Cowboy Cal, is really a turf specialist, and finished a very credible second. One other thing about the Poly, and this is not factoring in the safety issue, which obviously is the most important thing, is that at Del Mar last year, a lot of people grumbled because of the Poly and how it affected the quality of performances. Now the Bluegrass at Keeneland, also a Poly surface, has people once again walking away scratching their heads just like last year. I wonder if the Poly is more difficult for a dirt horse to transition to than the other synthetics. The fact that Cowboy Cal ran so well doesn't surprise me because he's coming from the grass.

That brings me to one final comment: Adriano, like Cowboy Cal, is in my opinion a turf horse. Adriano ran a clunker in his dirt race (not sure if he's run on dirt more than once), and looks very good on grass and the synthetics. You can move a horse from a synthetic to dirt, as the California horses are showing this year, and obviously we've seen turf horses bring their form to the synthetics. However, I think it's a lot to ask a horse to go from grass, to synthetic, to dirt.

If I owned Cowboy Cal and Adriano, I would forget the KY Derby and keep them where they belong: on grass and occassionally on the synthetics.

Okay, let's try and move this along to the more productive plateau of picking a Derby winner, and let's start with Monba-- Marias Mon o/o Hambro, so some inspired breeding (Buckpasser 4X both Sire's Sire and Dam's Sire side doesn't hurt a lick), and with early handling by Alice and John Chandler and friends over at Mill Ridge, who helped bring us Barbaro, among many other runners, you have to like his foundation. Has shown he will run over whatever surface, and his tactical speed should be Derby-friendly as well. Top-five worthy, but a Winner's Circle candidate?

I wonder with the poor performances by the favorites on the Keeneland surface in the Bluegrass gives the connections of Tomcito any pause before looking at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes this Saturday as an option.

I don't understand how Bryce can say putting him in another trainers hands would make any difference.

After all, they made the same move with their horses that Asmussen did.  Tagg with Big Truck, Matz with Visionaire.

Also, I think everyone knew the fractions were going to be slow, so why didn't Bridgmohan get him closer to the pace.  

I'd be more wary of the jockey than the trainer.

You can say what you want about the Bluegrass, but the fact is Monba already has a win over the CD surface and he won that race off of just four half mile works.

If Pletcher can have him cranked for the Derby, I like his chances a whole let better than Pyro's.

I'd like to see A.P. Indy get his Derby winner, so I'll take Adriano. There are a lot of Alydar & Seattle Slew relatives in contention this year, so it makes sentimental betting tough. What about Monba (out of Easy Goer's daughter Hamba) 2nd & Colonel John (out of Turkoman's daughter Sweet Damsel) 3rd. Mineshaft & Pulpit will have other chances to sire a Derby winner.

Like I keep telling everybody, Key Colonel John on top in Kentucky. Dirt or no, the time (of his SA Derby) doesn't lie(especially 'CJ's' last 3/8ths)which is where the real running starts. Props to JShandler 4 calling the Bluegrass. In response to west coast horses beating weak fields, who did Big Brown beat, and in what time? Everyone said the same thing about Sunday Silence (being a west coast horse.) I know west coast horse have ran duds in Kentucky; see Personal Hope and Jumron to name a couple. I don't buy into the fact tha Pyro didn't like the track at Keeneland either. I also look for Monba (impressive performance) to improve off his Bluegrass in Kentucky, perhaps hit the board.  

jamesb-- your rebuttal point VERY well taken with respect to Messrs Tagg and Matz being basically in the same decisionmaking boat as Asmussen, when it came to running on the synthetic. Coming clean, I have a huge negative blindspot when it comes to the Asmussens and Dutrows, and I let that unduly color my "thinking" here. Thanks for calling me out. In fact, you can make a case all three trainers were looking for a surface more conducive to keeping their horses sound, yet only for Pyro  did/does that tactic also make strategic sense-- I mean, it is possible both Visionaire and Big Truck may not make the field based on graded earnings, if an Eight Belles is placed into the mix, for example, and this is before considering the potential for more bombs going off in the last Derby prep. Mary-- I  much appreciate your breeding sensibilities, as I am also a big A.P. Indy breeding shed fan. In fact, I was first smitted by Pyro after visiting Pulpit this past Summer at Claiborne, so yes, I "get it" and I hear you. My Wife three-day events the first-born of Gary Stevens mount in the 1986 Derby. I get to clean the tack and pick his feet. Look him up on the T-bred pedigree site-- I borrowed his name for this blog :-)

I'd love to see Tomcito point for the Belmont Stakes, which I'd suspect he'll do anyway. If he runs in the Lexington, that's fine, because it would give him another American race, but to do it for the graded earnings to get him in the KY Derby, is rushing the horse, in my opinion. But if he goes to Louisville, he'll be one of the horses I'll like, no doubt about it.

You guys have to be kidding... None of these horses except 4 or 5 even belong in this race.  Big Brown is going to run 46 flat 111 flat 137 flat and 2:00.50 at the wire, now who is going to beat that ??? Any horse you name does not have the Beyers to come close and has not put back to back races together heading into the Derby... but Big Brown has!  I am sorry he will be the favorite, I am sorry that his odds will be short but do you want to cash your ticket or rip it up?

It will be interesting to Big Brown run those early fractions with Recapturetheglory and War Pass breathing down his neck.  He'd better sit just off them and launch his bid entering the stretch or he'll be done.  You can't tell me that in his fourth career race he'll be ready to stand up to that kind of pressure.  Also, Big Brown is another horse who has never been locked into a battle.  I don't believe the first Saturday in May is when you find out what happens when he gets hooked.  This race looks pretty much wide open to me at this point.  I can't remember going in with this many questions.  It is going to be a nightmare to handicap.

NO WAY does Big Brown go anywhere near the early pace in the Derby----Kent D is a closer---he HAD to send Brownie in Florida but will take back and wait, along with Colonel John---then it's a two horse race for the Roses...hopfully for the ages as well---I can see Big Brown opening by four, the Colonel emerging and ultimately engaging and defeating the big brown one.....that's what racing needs--a big horse who makes big moves---well that's both of these horses and may Kent and Corey come hard at the 1/4 pole!!! War Tiznow gettin' his first Derby winner....War Corey Nakatani, a real good guy and someone you can root for---GETTIN' HIS!!!.....War Eoin Harty ARRIVING, War Winstar for trusting, War polytrack for enabling and WAR COLONEL JOHN, for being!!!!!

Visionaire fits vs most of these, I expect a battle royal at the 1/2 mile pole---middle moves galore---I hope Visionaire and Col John stay back and make that one big wide run----Kent will be waiting with Brownie but expect a stretch battle this year and STRONG CLOSERS---that's Col John and maybe Visionaire....

Draynay, you seem to have the KY Derby all figured out, including the clockings Big Brown will run. I'm surprised you even think four or five other horses even belong in the race.

I think you're forgetting one small detail: this race just isn't that simple. If it was, then they might as well leave everybody else in the barns and let Big Brown run the Derby in a walkover.

Billy D, Big Brown was less that 1/2 second off the stakes or track record for his last win.  He did it with authority from the impossible post, east or west that was a very impressive race, not that I am a fan, but them are the facts, and you don't have to buy that he didn't like the surface.  On question for you, do you believe some horse can run better in mud than other?  That answer is yes, some can't run a drop on a wet surface.  I believe that the surface was a problem and we soon will find out.  If he runs in the top 3 then what is everyone's thoughts?  Just wondering.

War this.?..look out,there's Jim Everett!!  lol

PYRO WILL FIRE IN KD, BURNER BOTTON.

MONBA IS COMING ON AT THE RIGHT

TIME, AND COULD SUR-PRIZE.

GOING TO BE A GREAT RACE,GOOD LUCK

           TO A L L.

Pyro was not a happy camper in the post parade.  He was wringing his tail and, as a horse owner for over 25 years, when a horse does that, watch out, something is bothering him.  I don't know what was bothering him or whether it affected his race, but it obviously did not help it!

keep in mind guys that Big Brown will be heavily backed by the locals in Louisville...UPS headquarters is there and UPS is called Big Brown.  That said, he is in a class by himself.  I loved Recapturetheglory's race and I see that as the exacta with Visionaire, Gayego, and Adriano rounding out the gimmicks.   Sure looks like the 3-1 on the Kentucky Derby Future pool 1 was a steal at least for me being that my top derby 5 are all part of the mutuel field in that pool...Big brown will be 9-5 on derby day so that in itself makes the bet a steal.

To Antman, Obviously some horses like off tracks better than others,

however the surface is still the same for all in the race. In other words, all the other runners in the Bluegrass loved the surface while Pyro simply didn't like it? I think not. That being said, if everyone in racing is so concerned about different surfaces, why don't states make surfaces uniform to avoid all the extra 'what ifs' going into the Derby, it's already the hardest race of the year to handicap, this makes it unnecessarily harder. In response to Draynay: I hate to break it to you, however beyers don't win the race, class does, in the Derby sometimes luck as well. See Ferdinand in '86 and Sea Hero in '93. There is no substitute for racing experience, remember Air Forbes One in '82? I hope Big Brown is the favorite. This way Colonel John will pay more. Like I said before, I've seen too many horses with much better credentials than BB up the track come Derby day (remember Arazi)? I hope BB is not up the track for your sake, however I think you'd be better off putting your money on Colonel John on top in your exactas, tri's or super tickets. I think the smart money will be on others with more seasoning. If Derby day comes up an off track, It's anyone's guess.

What a surprise to see Edgar Prado take the mount on Adriano in the Derby. I figured him for a Belmont horse. Monba suddenly looks very live.

Edgar Prado made the right decision in choosing to ride Adriano over Monba/Tale of Ekati.He definately has the most up-side of the 3.With his breeding,lovely stride & easy/impressive victory in the Lanes End Stakes,he should be very competitive in the Derby!Apparently he's doing real good & peaking at the right time,for his handlers to change their plans and run him,instead of taking their time and not rushing him,says alot..Derby fever? maybe..But he has as good a shot as more than 3/4 of the top 20 Derby prospects!..Pyro/Adriano/Col.John/Cool Coal Man super/box is looking mighty tasty right now!...we'll see..

Billy D, Big Truck, cool man, or Pyro didn't like it, it is the same, and I would bet money you will never see Pyro run on polytrack again, and about the states, I think California is that way already if I am correct, I hope BB is 2-1 or less b/c that makes everyone else better.  Seasoning is the only factor I am off BB.  He may win, but not with my money.  This baby is wide open.  Take 2 or 3 of the top horses and they falter and it is box car city.  Hope I have a part of it.  Take it is Billy D

I think that it will be War Pass and Recapturetheglory the whole way, and will finish that way, with Pyro coming on for third. Big Brown will not factor, AT ALL

It's funny at this time of year how quickly some horses can come to hand. Adriano might be one, time will tell. If I were to venture a guess as to who will pick up the mount on Monba, I'd say Garrett Gomez, if not John Velazquez in which case I think Gomez would be on Cowboy Cal.

if pyro wins the derby i will wear bent shoes for a week! my top five Big Brown-Colonel John-Gayego-Adriano and a tie between Cool Coal Man-Recapturetheglory...

the 'z's' are last and the 'aires' are the 'heads', the early 2 year old campaigner's like Court and Ekati never measured up and... War Pass won't be in the race passed  1 1/16!!!

Shannon, I love the way you think. It's gratifying to hear from other War Pass backers, and Recapturetheglory looks like an exciting horse. Maybe he'll really bring back some of the glory that Risen Star provided twenty years ago. That would really be a nice story. We need to remember though that both War Pass and Recapturetheglory like the lead, but it would be great to see them 1-2. I also hope Pyro bounces back because he's a nice horse, and I'm beginning to grow fond of him. I think the Poly was a very big factor in his poor performance. I'm not making excuses for him, but Pyro should run much better at Churchill Downs.

I'd also love to see Court Vision closer to the pace and try for a piece of it, and if Eight Belles is there, I'd love to see her finish in the top five!

Maybe it's a dream, but I'm hoping.

Prado choosing Adriano, over Tale of Ekati and Monba, only after he works Adriano at Churchill , has to be taken as a serious decision on his part, or is it? Is he choosing the best horse or is he choosing his closest ties in H.G. Motion? I think he's choosing the best horse; I will include him in my top four or five, right there with Col.John, Smooth Air, Gayego and Recapturetheglory... of course Big Brown wins, these others will be running for second. And if Tomcito wins the Lexington I'll use him too, and I give no chance to Pyro  and War Pass.

Oh gosh, that's right, I almost forgot about Tomcito, and I was just talking about him somewhere else today. Hope he wins the Lexington and moves forward.

Pryo...Tapit...Essence of Dubai...what's the difference?  Next stop...the Breeder's Cup Mile.  This horse won't finish better than his previous Pulpit peers period.  C John will have to pick it up a bit in the early part of the race to have a chance.  He's at risk of serious traffic problems with speed backing up.  BB did a lot of dancing around in his last.  Has he ever really ran WITH horses?  He's going to see a lot of heads and tails from the 20 horse field (not to mention the crowd rounding the corner).  Hope they worked the bugs out of him.  The West is going to heavily influence the exotics.  Throw Bob Black Jack out at your own risk. I'm looking for that $35,000 superfecta.  

Why is Dutrow keeping Big Brown in florida?!  If he doesn't work his horse at churchill, then Big Brown has no chance.  Churchill surface is like no other, if you don't let your horse get the feel and get comfortable with it, your goose is cooked.

In my estimation, this is a win-win for Momba's connections as well as Adriano's: Ramon D. is tempermentally well-suited to the former and will give him a nice trip no doubt. Now the question is-- who rides Tale of Ekati for Mr. Tagg? Yes, Mr. Motion and Edgar P. go way back, but that isn't driving either of them. These are two professionals of the HIGHEST order rendering professionally-based decisions-- the tip-off for me was when Edgar accepted Motion's invitation to work Adriano over the Churchill dirt and with no script, other than to break off from my buddy Longley-- once Edgar asked and felt Adriano get a hold of the surface, that was that. Also-- Adriano's connections struck with "Derby Fever"? Absolutely: they  are wise enough to know it's a bad plan that admits to no modification, the original plan (to give him time to mature and run him on the grass)becoming not the best plan-- this horse is MUCH more than one of the 15 who doesn't have a shot, and is more than Derby Worthy. Can you embrace that Jason, or do you still feel a reporter's betrayal for being initially told, regardless of what happened in the Lane's End, Adriano would be in his stall munching hay the First Saturday in May? You may have the proverbial last laugh, but right now I am thrilled for all of Adriano's connections. Hey-- if he does a Showing Up and finishes 6th and goes on to have a similarly distinguished career on the turf before heading off to the breeding shed... I know-- you are "looking for the Derby winner". Well--?

Pyro has yet to equal or even come close to his top Beyer figs as a 2 yr. old even if you throwout his last race. The Derby is all about the "now" horse who is and has improved with a bit of maturity. I'm throwing him out on the win end. Gayego came home too slow for me, his last final quarter in 25.7 doesn't cut it. No horse in my memory has won the derby coming in off a final quarter over 25.6 and i'm holding to that. I'm throwing him out on the win end as well. Smooth Air was slowing badly his last 1/16th was in 13.4 and that's not going to cut it either. I'm throwing him out on the win end as well. War Pass just does not have the distance capabilities and Tale Of Ekati is too slow. Court Vision is too slow in the initial stages for me to consider a win candidate. Visionaire finishes nicely but leaves himself too much to do. Monba needs to get faster but I love his breeding. Recapturetheglory is interesting but I question the breeding there. That leaves Big Brown, Colonel John, and Z Fortune for now. I'll wait to see how they move over the track at CD. I am dissapointed that the connections of Big Brown have chosen to keep him in FLA and not give him time over the CD strip. Colonel John and Z Fortune are coming into this race the right way and that's on the way up. I think there will be surprises filling out the exotics and I'm going to be there to cash in on them as always. Happy handicapping!! I'll see you at the window right after the race.

If Big Brown gets a good post position it is over. Colonel John will make a run at him and someone with some early pace will be on the ticket. War Pass, possibly Bob  Black Jack. But watch a Smooth Air, Visionaire, Pyro or Court Vision because of the extra distance end up on the ticket. There are a few numbers above but there is your exacta, trifecta and super above. I like 1. Big Brown 2. Colonel John 3-4 Box War Pass, Smooth Air & Pyro, and you got the Super. $12.00 bet; and hopefully with all the money thrown at the Derby you got a $1000+ super payoff. Do the same for the Tri and you got a few hundered dollar payoff, and even that BB/CJ exacta will pay you $40-$50. Just make bigger bets and you will win a lot more money. Good luck to all!!

Another way of looking at the importance of a final sharp prep race is this.

All the Derby winners since 1996 have either won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner in their last prep. Even Giamcomo, although 4th, was just two lengths behind the winner. He still ran a decently sharp race. Much better than say Storm in May ran when second by 10 1/2 in last years Ark Derby.

From 1996 to the present 83 horses have run in the Derby despite not having won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner in their last prep. None of them won and only 5 hit the frame.

No winner of the Blue Grass Stakes has won the Derby in many many years and the trend should continue.  Both Pyro and Cool Coal Man will rebound in the Derby but neither of them should catch the big two, War Pass and Big Brown unless the early pace is as blistering as in 2001 when Monarcos won in near record time.  If the early fractions are suicidal then the race will break down and any number can play.

Gayego's "slow" final 1/4 should be tempered by the fact that he pressed the strong pace throughout in the Ark Derby, a race which has represented well in recent runnings....he pressed a strong pace--opened up and HE WON---going away----this is a Derby sleeper, at, say, 13, 14 to one....I see only "Brownie" and "The Colonel" as going off UNDER 10-1 in this years Derby----Visionaire, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, War Pass and Pyro---all tough to throw out-----Big Brown is the enigma!---you don't know if his seasoning will matter---will he take back and how well can he rate?? We know Col John will relax---I don't think Corey needs to worry about the pace---this years Derby looks "middle move city"---Corey needs to stay wide and back----he'll give you that 1/2 mile drive which most of these don't have----I think he's your winner, with Brownie a close second, maybe Gayego, War Pass, Visionaire, Bob Black Jack for third.....Colonel John has the look of a Derby winner.....

pyro is the best 3 year old.  The only way he loses the derby is if his jockey blows it. war pass, big brown, and recapturetheglory will Quit.  Bob black jack should stay at santa anita, he will come in dead last. Synthetic tracks are garbage, the bluegrass means nothing.  It's got people thinking a horse like bob black jack has a shot in the derby.  colonel john is scary but he's coming from california, on to the dirt, and going farther than he ever has.  and he has to deal with 20 other horses. maybe, but i won't bet on it. watch out for eight belles she is a big, long filly who should love the extra distance. If tomicito  has enough money to get in, look out for him, the derby will be his third of a layoff and he should love churchill.                  

Pyro the best 3 yr. old? Maybe he was in January/February but this is April and he's been passed. Go ahead and bet him in the Derby, it will leave more value to the winner. Gayego won the Ark. Derby going away? I must have had a bad connection as from what I saw he didn't even have a "clear" win. Wasn't the margain of victory under a length? Oaklawn has always been a speed favoring track. Z Fortune was the best horse in that race running wide and making up ground on a track that leans toward speed (which incidently CD does not). Gayego's improving at the right time but let's be realistic, his breeding doesn't suggest getting 1 1/4 and he'll be softened even more against classier runners. Maybe he's this years Hard Spun at best, more likely not. You got to be kidding when you say it's tough to throw out War Pass and Bob Black Jack. War Pass will not get the distance and neither will Bob Black Jack. Visionaire may rally for a piece but will not win. If Big Brown runs back to his last he wins. All the others have to improve signifigantly to beat that. If he doesn't and the Colonel takes to the dirt it will come down to him, Z Fortune,and Monba for the win and wide open to fill the exotics. Bombs away!! Please bet down Pyro, Gayego, and War Pass for the win especially in the exotics, i'll gladly take your money.

Your still trying to make a case for another horse in the win circle?  Big Brown wins his first ever dirt race with a 104 Beyer off a very limited workout schedule and then is entered into a G1 race following a couple of workouts and dominates.  Now the horse has had some beautiful full 5 furlong workouts and is fully rested and ready for the Derby and your still looking around for the probable winner ???

This is a short not to all of you Pyro and War Pass fans. Pyro looked good a few months ago and War Pass a year ago.  But folks it's almost May and its all about the NOW horse.  War Pass does not belong in this race! He has not trained since the Wood and he is still a tired horse.  He has never won at a 1 1/8th and now you think he will do well going even longer ??? If the owners force that poor horse into the Derby he will be ruined. Pyro ? His last 3 races tell you he is not a Derby winner.  Deny it all you want but he has not broken a 95 Beyer and had 3 races to do it.  Sorry guys but you do not throw a clunker like he did than win the Derby...save yourself some money and move on your not married to these horses...move on.

War Pass is injured. I'm saddened  but as long as the horse will be OK, that's the important thing and not racing. He's off the KY Derby trail and the Triple Crown.

I guess with War Pass's defection from the Derby he inadvertanly saved his supporters a lot of $$$. War Pass wasn't going to win the Derby anyway, let alone hit the board. I told everyone before, his breeding suggests speed, he's a miler at best.

Big Brown will NOT win the Derby,even with War Pass out of the mix.Save yourselves some Grief,Heartache & money people.Do you honestly believe he can win with Only 3 starts?..nope!..Toss him Out! Especially as a short priced favorite.Look elsewhere for a winner..Mark my words:BB will give up the Ghost at the top of the stretch!..There's plenty of value in others.

We start with the immutable fact that Big Brown's prep race in the Florida Derby was THE most impressive this year. Racing from the 12-hole, with only two prior starts, he nearly set a stakes record. However, a bit of recent and not-so-recent history is in order. First, two words: "Bellamy Road." He popped a 119 Beyer in the Wood and was being fitted for coronation, but fizzled in Kentucky. Second, no horse KD winner since 1915 (Regret, a filly) has won the Roses off only three prior races. There was a pretty good horse last year who was tried -- Curlin -- who he could only manage third, albeit with a bad trip. The hidden horse here is  . . . Court Vision. Too slow? So was Sea Hero, in 1993. (I'm smilling just remembering it!) In both of Court Vision's  two preps this year, he made up a ton of ground late, while racing very wide. And in the first of those races, the Fountain of Youth, at Gulfstreatm, NOBODY closed, except him. He followed that up in the Wood, when he missed all the marbles by 1-1/2, when he certainly didn't need the earnings, but needed the conditioning. Need more? (1) He's one of few to have won at Churchill (in last year's Iriquois, a gutsy performance you can see for free on the bloodhorse.com); (2) Garrett Gomez is a Big Money jock -- and he had other options for the race; (3) he worked SUPER on the track this week (4-f 46.1 breezing); (4) he's getting blinkers for the first time; (5) pedigree says "yes" to distance; (5) Bill Mott isn't in the Hall of Fame by accident; (6) he'll be 15-1 or better. I see him sitting on a big, big race. I do have great respect for H.G. Motion and since Adriano (who finished 9th in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream from the 12 post, in which Court Vision ran third) ran a beautiful prep and Prado is a plus, I'll save with him for the win. I'll probably also use Big Brown defensively (in case he turns out to be the second coming of Foolish Pleasure) and Smooth Air, in the exotics, too. Good luck to all! -- Philip

All that I here is Synthetic Track.The track is still 80% sand.That is about the same as any Dirt

track anywhere.Check them out.

I've always liked Court Vision and with War Pass on the shelf, and Tomcito without the earnings, I have to decide on my #1 Derby horse all over again. There are a number of others that I'm fond of including Court Vision, Recapturetheglory, Colonel John and Eight Belles, if she goes. I have also become endeared to Pyro.

Recapturetheglory looks to be the pacesetter. He might have some company if Bob Black Jack shows up and Big Brown also wants to mix it up early. They've all shown they can carry their speed, but none of them have ever gone 10 furlongs. If they wear each other out, the others will be ready to pounce.

JS - A little shout out for your Blue Grass score, but playing a 5 horse ex box? Kinda cuts into your R.O.I., doesn't it? 8-1 post time odds on Monba + underlay $135 ex payoff showed there were a lot others cashing as well.

hey slew em all, BB is going to demolish the field...this derby is full of pretenders including colonel john and pyro...Recapturetheglory ran huge and is my exacta horse with visionaire and behindatthebar...That Field bet in KDFW pool 1 is looking good at 3-1 right now

hey dotcom,"really"!..we shall see..Pyro & Col.John pretenders?come on!..Recapturetheglory? 1 hit wonder!...Behindthebar? couldn't even win at Bay Meadows,he's a synthetic horse...BB and Rtg will finish back-to-back..in 10th & 11th place!...It seems you are easily swayed by "impressive looking" performances.But I would look at the Big picture; Tough,hard-knocking,consistent & versatile types like Pyro,Col.John,CCM,Court Vision and maybe even Visionaire.Not one-dimensional types like BB & Rtg,who I feel will run each other into the ground,not to mention BBJ with his Cali.speed(hope he gets in).Therefore I'm hoping L.Jones comes to his senses & runs his fillies in the Oaks,where they will fair much better.They're not even the 2 best fillies.(talk about derby fever! me thinks he's still sour about Hard Spun)..and watch-out for Adriano,he's my Sleeper horse!..BB & Rtg,I feel,ran their Derby race in their last starts,because they both HAD to-win-to-get-in,and might have peaked too soon!..this is just 1 Dude's opinions in his 32yrs. of thoroughbred encased blissfulness.(thx Pops,R.I.P!)btw..I'm "only" 37.lol...to each his own people..Late!

For those already aboard the Big Brown train, there is perhaps a small note of encouragement in so much as in today's New York Times, *** Dutrow, the trainer, confides to Joe Drape, the writer of the piece, how he plans on making a big bet on his horse to win the Derby. This is somewhat significant, I suppose, in so much as Dutrow similarly confided in Monday's paper to the same writer that in the Breeders Cup (2005), he bet $160,000 to win on Saint Liam, another horse he had trained, netting him a PROFIT of $384Gs, or thereabouts. (He won the race by a length and paid $6.80.) There might be a small cautionary note here, that being that Big Brown certainly won't know and won't care that Dutrow is betting on him.

Imma gonna winna bigga bucks againsta Big Browneye. No way this inexperienced pup wins. He beat nothing on a huge speed favoring track under no pressure at all. If he was the second coming the Beyer would have been 112-115. I see a regression back to a 92-97 Beyer and an outta the bucksa finish. Show me the money!!!! His inexperience will show through when he gets pushed bumped and pushed around. I'mma waitin for the odds and post positions b4 I choose the winner but it darn well won't be Browneye.  

Make their Browneye Blue draynot!..LMAO,thats exactly what I'm talkin' about.

Thx for that side-note Phileboy: If true,that just confirms my long disdain for Dutrow Jr!..What trainer/owner Doesn't bet on their horses? They ALL do!..but to Brag&Boast about "how much" they bet/won is tacky,tacky,tacky..hard to phathom he's related to the other classy Dutrow Horsemen.I'm Hoping the t.v coverage for the Derby keeps an Iso. shot of him when BB wilts in the stretch.lol..  Well,if the name fits?...

I think Pyro will do much better in the derby than he did in the Bluegrass.  Anything on polytrack, or whatever you call the stuff, you can not take seriously. It's an unnatural surface, and horses aren't bred to run on this stuff.  That's why some do well and some don't.  Do not worry about Pyro, he will be back to himself on the dirt,  you'll see.  Whether he's good enough to win, don't know,  but he will put in a much better performance than what you saw at Keenland because he's a better horse than that.

Hey, Slew'em'all,  If B.B. is the second coming of Foolish Pleasure that's not so bad. Foolish Pleasure did win the derby and ran the greatest filly ever into the ground. Noone else could run with her, but he did. I doubt B.B. is that good.