I try playing the 3 horses I like in a tri box, then key the horse you want to win in exacta's(obviously not to many). Outside of win,place,or show its the safest way to bet the Derby I've found.

Let me know if you find one horse that your can count on to hit the board, I like 2 or 3, but that doesn't mean they're going to hit the board, I've never seen a more wide open derby, unless Dutrow is sitting on a Monster. We won't know that until AFTER the derby.

The super and tri in this years derby should be huge, based on prior derby payouts.  Even last year (among others) the Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin tri paid $440.00 for a $2 bet. (not much of a handicapping stretch) Add to that Imawildandcrazyguy in 4th and you had a $2 super that paid $29,046.40!  For $336 you could have put those 3 horses and two others in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd spots and added 4 others (total of 9) in the 4th spot for only $336.   ($1 ticket).  End result........$14,532.20.  This years race will be much more wide open but should certainly result in a huge super payout.  An other idea is to bet the pick 3 and pick 4 ending with the derby with at least 7 derby horses at the end.  Use your skill to pick 2-3 others  in the races leading up to the derby and you might find yourself still alive at derby post time.  Trust your instincts, don't buy into all of the hype and bet to maximize and take advantage of potentially huge payouts......and as the man HP says.....may the horse be with you!  

While money management is important over the long run (that is, when betting multiple races), it is meaningless when betting a single race. If your horse loses the race, it doesn't matter how good the odds were on your loser - your cash is still gone (along with the profit you would have made on the winner). And for many amateurs, the Derby may be the only race they bet this year.  The only way to make money on a single race is to pick the winner, regardless of the odds.  You can't even win an exacta unless you have the winning horse on top.  So unless you're into place & show money, the name of the game in the Derby is to predict which horse will cross the finish line first.  That, almost certainly, will be Big Brown.  Barring a horrible post draw or some unforseen accident, Big Brown will take this field wire-to-wire and will be alone in the photo.  (On the other hand, watch out for the upcoming Triple Crown races.  He's used to getting a lot of rest between races, and may not be able to come back so soon - especially if he faces fresh horses in the next two.)

it is difficult at best to resist the pick 3 around the derby.as previously noted pools are nirvana size.cash a ticket abnd afford a new set of friends.

I could never figure out why anyone would bet the favorite or the top two or three choices in the Derby. This race is the one time of the year for horseplayers to go for the BIG score. My strategy will be to skip the exotics (except for a couple of relatively inexpensive quick-pick boxes on the tri and super). I will do 5 progressively larger win bets on five value horses (in the range of 12-1 and 25-1) somewhere in the first ten post positions (inside posts have historically had great advantage in the Derby). For example, $50 to win on 1, $100 to win on 3, $150 to win on 5, and so on. If all goes well I might break even if the lowest bet wins and get a huge hit if my highest bet wins.

The exotics are always the fun bets in the big races.  Sure, bet the single horse bets, but the money to be had is in the exotics.  I'll place 20-ish bets on the Derby - 90% of which will be on the exotics.  Bet Big Brown with the closers!  Cha-ching!

So who's the mudders in the Derby in the event of rain ????

Jeremiah-- when it comes to an off track, any list of potential Derby-winning mudders would have to include Visionaire, based on his win in the mud and the fog in the Gotham. Couldn't SEE much of the race, but he did cross the wire first.

one might consider this as an option, do a Oaks-Derby double, can be bet on Friday at most OTB's. Pick one , two , or three primary horse's in the Oaks with all in the Derby. Some nice payoffs over the years.

The best horse most often does not win the Kentucky Derby - Afleet Alex for instance, as traffic problems always happen.  Big Brown is intriguing to watch, but dont be surprised if Monba or Pyro make a race of it.

4 horses in my exacta box. 5 in my trifecta box. Hope and pray after that. Of course I bet one horse to win which for me, is pretty much like throwing my money out the window.

My problem is that I get over-confident (greedy if you prefer) and double and triple up my bets.

The one thing I have learnt is to come in later on steeplechase days at the Spa thus saving myself extra money and aggravation for later on down the card.

Other than that, you're on your own people. And good luck to all.

Exacta and tri boxes is the best (and easiest) way to cash a nice ticket on the Derby. You have to be responsible, but also go as deep as you can afford without losing the house, cause there are usually horses coming out of the clouds for one of the top three places, even in years where the fav's are in the money. It's the only race all year with such astronomical pools.

i found the best way to bet the derby is do your own handicapping, don't listen to the hype, and don't look at the odds.  just play who you think will win. and, if you love big brown, single him in the exotics and profit from the longshots that come in with him.

I form a Triple Crown betting Syndicate. We play only exotics. We will pool around $200-$250 and bet probably 2/3 of that pool on the Derby. Just in case we crap out on the Derby. Last year we bet $150 and hit only the exacta that paid $102. But did hit the Exacta and Tri on the  Preakness and the Belmont and thus we made about $50 for every $20 invested, and 7 people had a great time watching the races. This year's Derby to me may be little more clear cut. I did attend the Florida Derby again this  year and saw Big Brown. His speed and effort to get to the front around the first turn was amazing. I thought he would not be able to finish the race after that. But as we all saw he won with a lot of ease. If he gets a good post in the Derby it will be all over. I think he will actually rate for awhile and use his big move coming around the final turn. I think the front runners will wear out trying to move with BB and they will all fade and so hear will come the smart stalkers and the closers. Which narrows down the other the remaining numbers on your tickets. Colonel John may be the only one to get close to BB but will probably fall short. Don't rule out a big move from Court Vision, Pryo, & Smooth Air. I think Eight Belles may sneak on the ticket if she runs. Those horses above will be on alot of our tickets from exactas to the super. But keying BB and the Colonel in positions will save betting money. We will also cover ourselves with some exacta boxes keying a few of the above and a few others not mentioned. We have until Friday to make our decisions. I like to watch post position draws and see how the horses work this week.  The Derby has been pretty easy to pick some keys the last couple of years. Barbaro & Street Sense were really the horses to beat and you see how they did. But I do appreciate all those bettors out there that will bet lots of money on the other dozen or so horses that don't have a chance. It helps to build up the exotic pools. Good luck to all. Key BB in first, and the Colonel in 2nd and for a smaller amount of money you can play a lot of trifectas and supers.  a $20 straight exacta on BB&CL will still pay you $300 or so, and our syndicate will make that bet for sure.

I've been playing horses since 1991. I started out placing win, place and show bets with good success.  As I learned more about handicaping races I moved on to betting exactas and trifecas.  At that point is when I got hooked on the exotic wager.  i began winning trifecta bets every so often but the wins were enough to make any lose seem petty. In 1999 three friends and I won the the biggest prize of our life. We won the Kentucky Derby superfecta and trifcta. That paid us over $27,000.  This was the highlight of be betting career and I've haven't come close to duplicating that feat since. I continue to try every year, with hours dedicated to the effort. I've learned over the years to have fun trying for the big prize but to also make wagers that are more likly to cash in.  in all the excitement of the triple crown, I find that the thrill is in the chase and the time spent prepairing as much as the race itself!    

I Like Do The Win Palce Show Easy To Win You Can Bet 12or3 and Finish in Any Order Thank You.

I like to take my top selection and key him over several others in exacta and tri bets. I`ll throw in one or two that I`d normally dismiss since some strange things can happen in the derby. I`ll make a few dollar tri boxes and even leave my top pick out in some in case he runs a clunker.

Of all the longshots in the Derby, I think the one with the best chance of winning is Court Vision. This being said, I'll include Court Vision on my Super key ticket with Colonel John on top (how can you not like the 'Colonel' after the 57.4 work this weekend, however remember Big Truck had a similiar work before the Bluegrass?)with Monba, Bob Black Jack, Z fortune and Court Vision underneath. If it's an off track, I'll toss Court Vision and replace him with Visionare.

In regards to the mud - Pyro ran second to War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile - in the mud.

exotics are great in big pool multiple fields like the Derby,but on a daily basis you win when you bet win.....pick the winner...win the race...cash a ticket and you dont blow$ on 3-4 different horses..win and youre in.In derby and breeders cup  I bet $40 win on a horse and box he and 2 others $10 ex.box for $60...total $100....a cheap derby day..and a great rush

I bet  the jockeys  and basicly  thats it, yea its cold but I win!!

I had a night vision  where big brown was stuck behind horses and a horse with a numeracil sounding name won, eight bells!

4-HORSE EX AND TRI BOXES

BIG BROWN; COLONEL JOHN; COURT VISION AND PYRO.  

OFF TRACK: SMOOTH AIR/VISIONIARE/PYRO.

ONCE POSTS ARE DRAWN ON WED, WILL CHANGE MY MIND AND TALK MYSELF OUT OF THE ORIGINAL BET.

SOME SAY THE DERBY IS A JOCK'S RACE, IF SO, PRADO; GOMEZ & KENT D.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL ON RACINGS BEST AND MOST EXCITING EVENT.

I'll put bb and kfc on top and bet a lot of trifectas, including court vision and pyro. (RRJet, pretty nice super bet).  I'll put bb on top and use exactas, kfc on top with exactas (I just think these two are standouts, especially after the 57 and change work by kfc).  A couple of sneak bets, throw smooth air and eight belles in a couple of exactas with another horse you like.  I just think court vision (my early favorite) and pyro (my favorite after the risen star) might be too slow, up for 6th or 7th.  Gayego will factor in to some of my bets as well.  Everyone else I'm throwing out of the first two slots.

p.s. I had the derby trifecta last year ($40) although it wasn't a big payout and had the preakness exacta cold at $200 in 2006.  Weirdest moment of my handicapping life, crestfallen that I had won, given Barbaro's injury, even though I had won a lot of $$.

I don't buy the jockey thing - all the jockey's in the Derby are outstanding.  You need a horse with talent to shine.

For $20, the best bet is to box for $1, five horses for the exacta. If you want to be adventurous, double the exacta ($2 box) amount to $40. If you couldn't get the top two horses out of five picks, you probably weren't seeing the KY Derby clearly. For $20, I may get back as much as $500 back. Yes, the pick 3's and pick 4's are great. I would suggest picking at least three horses from the previous 2 races for a pick 3 making that ticket an $18 investment. $54 for a Pick 4 ticket (Three previous races with three horses and two picks for the Derby $1 wheel). The winning prices will be well worth the investment. An old racing adage is don't bet a favorite trying to do something for the first time. I won't put Big Brown in my exacta. If he wins fine, I will root for him throughout the Triple Crown.

I'll bet like Gene Simmons. A win bet on every horse. That way I can be like Gene and as he said "Gene Simmons never loses".

Cover BB with the horses you like- a play on top if he is a superhorse your covered then bet against. I believe he wins or is out. Personally I am betting Pyro but not anywhere the $2,000 (1k-0-1K) I had on Unbridled which ranks as my 2nd biggest cash ever.

This Derby is similar to the War Emblem and Giacomo races where I bet small because I was not in love with anyone. I can't say I loved Barbaro, only bet $60 win and some exactors so didn't love him. Smarty Jones was worth $300-300 blew the exactor and Tri. Sunday Silence was a big play and cash.

This Derby is no more than a $100 play-and not a good one really-I have been known to fire it in but just can't here.

THE REAL PLAY IS THE OTHER RACES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU CAN BE SOLID ON SOME HORSES. EVERY ONE-TIME NO-NOTHING BETTORS COME OUT ON KY DERBY DAY AND ARE INFLATING THE POOLS WITH PRETTY HORSE -LUCKY NUMBERS ET.-----TIME TO MAKE MONEY---AGAINST NOVICES. The satisfaction of picking a Derby winners is much less than taking down $10,000 in other bets that day with the huge pools-think about it.

Simple math says that you can afford to bet more than one horse. However you can go crazy and spend a lot; then have one surprise in the top 2 or 3 ruin your day. My system is to bet across the board on one horse, but add a couple of savers. Then maybe an exacta box, not with a key but just boxing 4 or 5.  That's because any horse can have trouble and lose a given race. (remember Point Given? Holy Bull?) History shows that there are a few key races that USUALLY produce the winner (i.e. Blue Grass; Wood Memorial; Santa Anita & Arkansas Derby; and Florida Derby). That is where to look. Many Derby winners finished second the race before. My best hits were the Real Quiet-Victory Gallop and the Strike The Gold-Best Pal exactas.

I'll bet the house against Big Browneye. Heck home values have plummeted anyway, now's the time to bet the farm.

In the Derby, bet the exotics. Too many good horses to choose. Plus the payoffs are huge. For $100 you can bet 4 differnt superfecta $1 box, leaving $2 exacta box to round it out. Choosing the horses, look at the speed figures, history shows if they dont have a recent 100 or better, chances are they wont finish well in the KYD. The exception this year is Colonel John at 95.

Betting the Derby is very tricky.  I would suggest an ALL in at least one hole of the tri or super, and make sure you get your key horse in the money.  It's as easy as that

Reading posts-A lot of ace handicappers, but very few good gamblers that play to win money not boasting rights. Somebody will be right and pick the tri cold-still been around years and know this is not a year to step in. Too many unknowns. Is BB a freak? Will John love dirt? Did poly ruin 4 good horses and move others up? You know-BS! Please!

I was pretty sure Street Sense was going to run big but still bet Curlin but back doored the tri so saved my money. There were only so many I thought could split them and Hard Spun was one of them. The 4th horse I couldn't have had with a $1000 super ticket

The novices and idiots will be out on Derby day so the prices and pool will be right-but this year still isn't a big play. For lottery players only.

I would love to go head to head with those only betting the Derby and not the other races with huge pools available on May 3rd everywhere. Take what is given-you can't force betting in particular race and expect to win.

Again take what is given. Winning money is why I gamble, it takes skill, effort, AND patience. There may be an overlay at Finger Lakes, Belmont, Lone Star or whatever-Is the money worth more cashed on a Derby winner?

Enjoy the race-it should be interesting, if not for betting on.

Take the 2 top horses and bet 8 horses on the bottom for exactas and then take those 8 horses on top of the two.Then take the rest of the field in daily doubles with the oaks top 3 horses.your total cost will be 62 bucks and spread the remaining 38 on 1 or 2 races you really like handicapping wise

I've been going to the track since the age of 8 and I am 48 now, so 40 years. Damn I'm old. Watched and wagered on a lot of Derbies over those years and there is one thing I can say for sure based on that experience. Anything can happen and the best horse does not always win. With that said horses with odds of 6-1 or less win a very healthy 70% of the time. So it may not be the best horse but there is high probablity that it will be a horse in the top 2-4 that win. Control your urges to take something long on top unless you really like it (it doesn't happen very often). If it is long odds make sure to bet it accross the board and key underneath in the exotics as well. If you like one of the favorites stick to your guns and hit it hard in the exactas and triples. I happen to like the favorites this year. With War Pass out of the race the pace of the Derby looks lighter to me than usual. Big Brown is the fastest horse in the race and there are very few that could push him to over extend himself early and those have been trying to learn to rate for the long haul (e.g Bob Black Jack). Colonel John has the best late kick in the field, but has enough speed to get position and will not be too far back early. Can I make any money keying these two favorites 1st and 2nd? Sure I can because only God knows who will come in behind them. I will limit my bets to less than $200 and try to logically determine who doesn't belong in the race and eliminate them. Take everything else, put them underneath in triples and supers and hope for the best. I hit the Derby once about every five years, but when I do ...

I play 10 accross on my top pick and I key him and my 2nd pick first and 2nd to 5 horeses to run third for my $2 trifecta. Only $50.00 total bet. So you don't get hurt if you loose and the tri's usually pay well.

I'm a mutual bettor, Except For The DERBY,With the bonanza of opportunities out there this is my Christmas.I Will be making a $100 W P S bet on Z Fortune,Then I will Top And Bottom wheel him in the exactas, I will also be Keying him in in the first and second slots over Colonel John,Court Vision,Gayego,Cowboy Cal and possibly Smooth Air,In tri's and supers.Then lets get it on

I am picking Big Brown to verify Ricky Dutrow's love of the game and his overiding concern for horses and people.I think the horse is awesome with the right owner,trainer and jockey.Bet the farm,it is money in the bank.Daniel  

The Derby is unique from a handicapping/wagering standpoint, due to the large field,and the numerous "wildcard" factors. This is the race to load up on exotics. Bet as many $1 ExactaBoxes and TriBoxes as you can afford. Don't be afraid to invest a little money in the Derby. Don't be afraid to include a 50/1 shot, who often shoot up for show in this race. Finally, in this race-JOCKEYS COUNT, far more than trainers do.  

The derby is one of my favorite days of year. I got hooked on horse racing the year Bid won. So I bet well on the derby. I know my biggest hits have happen as I have gotten older. I hit the funny cide trifecta with funny on top. I also pool my money with some buddies and hit the barbaro tri. To me play the exotics. this is day to score big. The rest of the year play smart and safe. I play exactas and trifectas. I also play superfecta quick picks because you just never know.

I never bet the favorites. How are you going to win any money that way. This is what I do, and so far I'm an expert at picking the second and third place finishers of the Derby each year. I've been betting this race every year since the mid seventies.  I look at the horses who put in good efforts in their last starts,not necessarily winning them but horses that appear to want more ground, more distance.  Check out Smooth Air in the Florida Derby.  He ran a terrific second, he was very far off the pace in that race so there was no way he could catch Big Brown. I liked the way he finished. I also liked the way Tale of Ekti won the Wood, he's a fighter and obviously not afraid to bull his way through a hole if he has to. Those are two really good outside horses to consider for say a mere 10 or 20$ bet to win or place. It's fun. I can't get too excited about Big Brown yet because I have seen his kind before.  Bellamy Road comes to mind. He could be a great one, and he'll probably be the favorite so you can't win much money that way.. Really good ones are rare, however, we'll see on Saturday.  Remember Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati.  Who is screaming for more distance?? Bet them!

Every horse in the field has a chance. Just ask Giacomo!!

Have a great DERBY!!

I have been playing horses for more than 35 years and with the polytrack factor involved this leaves the race wide open unless Browns the freak some folks think he is. Being a value player my key will be Court Vision cause I like the way he "woke up" in his work after blinkers were added. Also his breeding screams distance. Good luck to all of you.

It's too expensive to try to cover everything you think could happen in a twenty horse field.  So, you have to take a stand and accept the possibility that you may lose.  That can be painful.  I had Barbaro keyed on top of six horses for the trifecta--didn't include Bluegrass Cat, but had the next three.  My first decision is whether BB is for real.  If  I think so, I'll probably key him on top of a bunch.  

(Best score was Funnycide-Empire Maker-Peace Rules tri)

There are only 4 that can win this race. Big Brown, Colonel John, Monba,and Z Fortune. Closers very rarely win and I rank Colonel John ahead of Pyro as a closer and will use only one. Stalkers win the majority of the time even if they are further back in this race. Look for the best stalker from previous races against top company. These are the ones who have proven they can be around a good pace and still finish well. Who finishes behind in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th position is what is wide open. Choose from these 4 on top with whoever you like and the possibilities are very good you will hit a big payoff in the tri or superfecta. Speed either wins or is off the board in this race, forget the 2 and 3 spots and use stalkers/closers there. An exception was last year with Hard Spun who hung on but don't expect it to happen again. The reason being that this is the race everyone wants to win and speed horses go all out against higher class animals and are thus way more likely to wilt. Stalkers/Closers in the 2 and 3 spot will get you the money. Rank them seperately (Top Stalkers and Top Closers) and use the top 2 or 3 of each from your rankings.

Majority of the comments are valid from experienced punters.

Personally, with large fields and 3 y.o's, anything can happen so the Triple Crown Races offer the best chance to cash in a big payout via the superfecta.

Especially with the first in the series. How many times has a sure bet not made the superfecta the past few years?

As a few seasoned punters pointed out, if you don't have the winner you win nothing in exotic betting. I still lament the Derby when Giacomo won. Having the other 3 in the superfecta and not giacomo meant losing the $27 bet. The sad part is scratching him from the superfecta in favour of the favorite- still makes me shake my head.

In these 3 year old races, extending to distance over a track that runs different than most any other track, anything can happen.

Bet the superfecta, pick four and box them.

If you play a box 4 horses for $48.00, it still gives you a 20% chance of winning which is still better than any slot machine can offer. Or a $1 box on 8 horses (or two superfecta box bets) gives you a 40% chance of winning. You only have to be right once. Remember Giacamo? What was the Super, like $1.7 million? Good luck, however this year all you need to do is key 'Colonel John' on top.

you could bet a 6 horse exacta for $30 with a chance for a huge payout. The $2 exacta giacomo payout was $10,000

I ENJOY PICKING ONE HORSE WITH A NICE BET, THEN BOXING HIM WITH 4 OR 5 OHTERS IN THE EXACTA AT 3 OR 4 DOLLARS A BET. NOT A BIG INVESTMENT BUT A FUN DAY. WATCH OUT FOR COLONEL JOHN.

as far as wagering go, i like to bet win and place on a horse that i really love. last year i bet 50$ to win and place on street sence and it couldnt have turned out better. but, since i dont have a clear favorite this year, i am going to try my hand at exotics (probably just exacta and tri). the horses i like are big brown, colonel john, pyro (especially if its muddy), and dennis of cork.

"Think Dickbee is right, two horses, Big Brown and Col John----maybe "John" is improving or maybe he was overworked---methinks it's the former, as Tiznow and Turkoman were "late comers"---wow, but Tiznow beat Giants Causeway, ALL the way around the CD track---he was a giant of a horse and is this (Col John) gonna be his first Derby winner?? And, yes, actually closers win a lot of Derbies, this years may be soft on pace but it's usually a fast first 1/2 mi---Col John should have dead aim on Big Brown and these two simply pull away from the rest----Jones got "Derby Fever"----and starts the (mediocre) filly vs two tough animals---no way does she even come close to those-----  

A little off topic, but not completely so. I have become a believer that betting the field in the future pool #1 is an excellent odds bet:  I just took a look at who is included in my $8.60 for each $2 wagered:  Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles (hope she runs here because it also helps my field bet in the Oaks!), Gayego, Recapture the Glory, and Visionaire.  I am not a believer in Big Brown, but having him covered with the field bet will take the sting out of it should he wire the field. Its good to look back at years like this when we see 3:1 next spring.

I've been playing the horses since 1962 and have picked a lot of winners (and losers). Always felt if a horse was good enough to win and had a good jockey he/she should be bet that way..Stretch it out a little if you want with a cross the board and maybe throw in a couple cheap exactas..(don't really care for the exotics) I really like BB and Col J.  Don't overlook Gayego.  Why did Prado pick Adriano ?? Hmmm  

I've played twenty or so Derbies in my 37 years of thoroughbred racing, and I've "hit" twice---once on a $10 tri keying Sunday Silence to Easy Goer to three other horses (total $30 bet)Dansil ran 4th but it was good enough for me as the 3rd horse that year was an entrymate of "Easy's"----the thirty turned into $1020----but my all-timer was STICKIN' Sea Hero----he was 31-1 in Oregon that year (93) not the 12-1 he paid in Louiville----the ONE DOLLAR exacta (with the favorite Prairie Bayou) paid $1043---in Oregon! This year I'm leaning Colonel John's way---'taking Bob Black Jack along for the ride---and I love the guts of the Big Brown Crew----another Unbridled's Song??? That was a very good horse---'Thinkin' of keying Col John 1st and 2nd, with Visionaire, Gayego, Big Brown, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack undereath---too bad for Gayego getting so far out but I think he's "one of the ones" this year--I expect him to fire big but not sure it'll beat The Col and Brownie...

HaHaHaHa, Dutrow in all his arrogance just gave away any chance he had to win. I was going to bet the farm against the Big Ole Browneye but now I'll bet every red cent I can beg, borrow , or steal against him. What an obnoxious a** to be so arrogant as to choose the 20 hole. I can't wait to watch Brownie burn out in the stretch run if he makes it that far. I picture the Colonel, Pyro, Monba, Court Vision, Visionaire, and others thundering by him in the stretch as his owners strangle Dutrow in the stands. Saturday can't come soon enough for me. See you at the IRS window!!!!

For Bob V. Wright,

Prado chose Adriano simply because he had ridden him first before Monba. That was exactly how his Agent explained it. Tale of Ekati was way to slow for his consideration. Jockey's have to tow a fine line when choosing one horse over another in respect for their relationship with Owners/Trainers. In this case there wasn't much seperating the horses so they did the safe thing and honored the connections they first rode for. If their would have been a big difference in talent then I would read more into it. Personally, I believe he chose the WRONG one to ride. We'll see come saturday.

Kent D will have to give Big Brown his head then reel him into a rating stride---not easy but he did just that in Florida.....can he do that again???---vs a TWENTY horse field??? If he does he probably wins, as Col John has yet to run that big---only The Col has given every indication he's ABOUT TO run that big----that's the race---will Big Brown establish position and survive the opening "send" and be able to gather himself in for the remaining mile.....and does Colonel John make it through the opening turn, where horses are coming in from the outside and horses get checked back---here'e hoping they both get dream trips and the racing world gets that stretch battle between two big time animals!!

Box: Pyro,Adriano,C.C.M.,Col.John,Monba,&Court Vision for the Tris' & Supers'.It can get pricey,but it should pay well.These should get a swift pace to run at..They said they're sending BBJ from the gate(also adding blinkers on him;even more speed),so BB HAS TO GO,from the far outside..No matter what,BB is gonna' have to haul from the get-go,who said he can rate behind horses?Dutrow said "he doesn't like horses in front of him,he's too head strong".Thats why he chose the 20 hole,to "hopefully" get a clean break,if not,he's done!.That's why he's saying that "if" BB breaks with the field,he can't be beaten..I'll take that as meaning:BB "NEEDS" to be in front for his best chance,ala War Pass.And we seen what happened in the Tampa Derby!..Even "if" Browneye takes the lead,and BBJ breaks well,he will get pressured heavily by the 6f record holder,thats for damn sure!..Therefore: I'm banking on the horses who "should" get good,stalking,patient ride and Pounce on the tiring ponies coming into the far turn..

I like the way Denis Of Cork is looking these days. If he gets a decent trip he's right there as well as Smooth Air & Adriano.  If Big Brown is a great one and can overcome his post position and get a clean trip, he wins...But that's only if he's great and I don't think so.  That track in Florida favors speed, it's no secret. Very similiar to the way Keenland used to be before polytrac. I do not take the Florida Derby seriously,  but I did take note of Smooth Air and what a determined little horse he is. He was so far off the pace that day it's a miracle he got up for second.  There's money to be made on this derby, go place a bet and have fun.  We can all rip apart Dutrow on Sunday.

I'm a typical "girl." I look at the sire & dam, the horses record, the jockey, the trainer and of course, color. Eight Belles is Gray as well as Monba. So there's one Tri~ Pyro~Monba & Eight Bells. Love for a filly to win....

Then I do about 2 more Tri's, one Super, a few exactas, some WP&S's.  All with the ones I like the best, just mix them up a bit. I think for my Super though, I'll go with Pyro~Colonel John~Monba~Gayego... It's really a tough pick this year. I truly think 17 of these horses have a real good chance despite what the odds say right now. They will change so drastically,right up to post, that I will ignore them. And BTW~ I box everything!

GOOD LUCK Everyone!

The Wiz plans to bet against a heavy favorite from the far outside post. It's one thing to beat questionable stock on a speed favoring track from an outside post and it's a totally different ballgame when you try to do it against many high quality animals on a track at a distance that has never favored front runners. That being said Slew em All and I are on practicaly the same page. I'll include Colonel John, Monba, Court Vision, and Pyro in my exotics as well as sprinkle in Z Fortune, Visionaire, Denis of Cork, and Smooth Air. I'm not so sold on Adriano as I don't particularly like his dirt form. Gayego drew a terrible post and I intend to beat him from there. There is alot of value here and I intend to identify where it is and capture some of it on Saturday. How bout a Big Truck bomb on the bottom? One thing is for sure, it is going to be very interesting to see how it all unfolds. Sit back and enjoy the greatest spectacle in sports!!