BloodHorse.com

Take It To The Bank: Big Brown Wins The Belmont

 

The nearly three decade drought is over. Big Brown takes over after six furlongs, opens up a clear lead, and holds off a very game Denis of Cork by two lengths to win the Belmont Stakes.

That is my prediction and although it is the way I see the Belmont unfolding, to back myself up I will also use Denis of Cork in the top spot. Since the trifecta is unlikely to pay much with Big Brown on top, I will play a superfecta. Here is my $1 ticket that costs $112:

1,4/1,4/All/All.

With Big Brown on top it still has potential to pay over $1,000 if Casino Drive runs out. And if you have read any of my stuff this week, I think there is a good possibility this will happen. The agonizingly slow :57 four-furlong work on June 5 convinced me that Casino Drive is a tired horse, and he will also not take to an off track, if weather plays a factor. If I am wrong, so be it. His 3-1 odds won't make me feel like I missed a big score.

Big Brown wins because he is a push button horse who has not even been asked for his best yet. He should have plenty left in the tank even though his breeding suggests 12 furlongs is not an ideal distance. This horse has no problem rating, Desormeaux is experienced enough to know not to move him too early, and there does not seem to be enough talent in here to keep him from becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner.

I definitely think Denis of Cork is an improving horse and if Big Brown has an off day, he could pull the upset. I also expect Tale of Ekati to improve some off his 4th-plave Derby. He may be a factor. Macho Again and Ready's Echo might be charging late to get a piece of the money. I can't see any other horse challenging.

There you have it. Forget about Dutrow's arrogance, IEAH's business-first operation, the quarter crack, the Hooters girls, the racing Gods, and whatever other reasons you think will prevent Big Brown from becoming a Triple Crown winner. The horse keeps getting better and he has no equal in this race.

My late Pick 4 selection will come out Friday.

119 Comments:

well said!Go Brownie and bring it home!!

Barbaro fan 05 Jun 2008 6:00 PM

BB WILL WIN,BUT CASINO DRIVE WILL BE 2ND. REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD IT!

MIKE RELVA 05 Jun 2008 6:35 PM

The horse is a class act.  Even if his connections aren't.   Go Denis of Cork!!!

cepatton28 05 Jun 2008 6:50 PM

Love your comments Jason.You know me,I've been a Denis of Cork fan from day one.Had him in my roadtotheroses stable in Feb.I really like the bet you have going and I'm looking at the same thing.Totally enjoyed all the comments over the TC.I hope you keep going with the blog site.Thanks alot!

Wanda 05 Jun 2008 7:02 PM

But will Dutrow forget about the Hooters girls?

Tom 05 Jun 2008 7:54 PM

I agree, Big Brown will win it.  We haven't seen his best yet and there is not a single horse in this race who has a chance against him.  I also agree with you to not include Casino Drive.  His works are pathetic and he only won the Peter Pan because he had 10 weeks off and a stable mate to set him up for the perfect race. He has neither of those factors in the Belmont and he is not a good enough horse to come close to Big Brown.

GO BIG BROWN!!!

R Dorsey 05 Jun 2008 8:08 PM

Can some one please tell me why The Blood Horse is publishing articles saying that Ian McKinlay is a Farrier?  Ian McKinlay is NOT a liscensed Farrier at any track.  He never took a blacksmith test and only gets away with working on the tracks because he "glues" shoes on and a lisenced Farrier nails shoes on.  This is an insult to the Farriers who serve apprenticeships and work the forge for several years. Journalists and trainers, ask for his liscense!

H Pacheco 05 Jun 2008 8:16 PM

Without any " off - the - wall " remarks .....why was Guadalcanal entered ?? I'm still scratching my head over this one ... a maiden ??

Any logical thoughts ???

UCLinden 05 Jun 2008 8:35 PM

I'm not sure I like this Suffolk offering a 5 million dollar purse to attract Curlin and BB. I hope this doesn't turn into a match race. A million dollar bonus for participation??? With that much money talking will the owners do what is right by the horse? I sure hope so.

Karen 05 Jun 2008 8:58 PM

H Pacheco-- while I defer to Jason and his editors, every article I can recall seeing in Blood Horse, in contrast to other publications, always precedes Ian McKinlay's name with the phrase "hoof specialist" and NOT "farrier". Are you confusing Blood Horse with some less reliable publication? BTW-- given the textbook job McKinlay has done with BB's feet generally and his most recent quarter crack in particular, "hoof specialist" does strike me as an accurate descriptor.

Bryce Be Quick 05 Jun 2008 8:59 PM

Well this is it...Big Brown at Big Sandy in the Big Race called The Belmont Stakes. The race becomes even bigger since Big Brown is going for the Triple Crown. Get the crown cause the Three Year old king is coming thru!

Big Brown will win the Belmont Stakes by 4 lengths over Casino Drive. The time will be 2:26 and 1. It may be faster if Big Brown gets pushed by Casino Drive.  The third place horse will be Denis of Cork or Ichabad Crane.  That's it.  Why am I going to consider ANY other three year old when NONE have been closer than 4 to 5 lengths to this horse at the finish?  When this horse was "asked" to run in his first race on the turf, he won by 11 to 12 lengths!  I haven't seen any three year olds, except Casino Drive, run a mile in 1:35 and change!  This horse is just warming up after a mile.  His easy Kentucky Derby win resulted in a time of 2:01 and four.  He was geared down and could have run again.  If you add another 1/4 mile and he runs in :24 seconds, he ends up with a time of 2:25 and 1!!!  I HOPE Casino Drive makes him run because this horse is capable of running in track record time. Yes, I know Secretariat owns the record.  But I'm strictly going by the facts, the numbers to gauge what this horse will do. He is an exceptionally fast horse. Period.

Casino Drive is very talented. He won easily his first time out at 1 and 1/8 mile by over 11 lengths. He comes to meet some of the "top" three year olds in the Peter Pan, over his conditions, and destroys them in fast time.  You may notice Casino Drive was in front by over 2 lengths after a mile in 1:35 and 1!!!  If he can run that fast after a maiden score in Japan, he can run fast anytime, anywhere. He scares me because of his freakish talent. But he hasn't been battle tested like Big Brown. I'll play him on top in exotics but I'll mostly use him for 2nd spot. I'd like to see him stay here and try the Travers and the Breeders Cup Classic. He will only get better and doesn't have to be much to beat the other three year olds besides Big Brown. He can run at Monmouth in The Haskell and meet Big Brown again in the Travers. The rest of the horses in this race are pretty weak. You can throw them all in for third and fourth and cash in. Good Luck and hoping for a great race!

craftylord 05 Jun 2008 9:26 PM

Big Brown hasn't been battle tested.  He hasn't been looked in the eye.  Neither has Casino Drive.  Guadalcanal was entered because he's already run the distance and proven he can get it - was it fast?  Ehh... but none of this year's crop is particularly fast.  BB has been dominant, but this entire field is going to hit the quarter pole and go "WHERE IS THE FINISH LINE?!!"

Because Guadalcanal has had a race over the distance, I'm willing to give him a second look.  But I'll take Tale of Ekati - Casino Drive - Ready's Echo as my tri.

Courtney 05 Jun 2008 10:34 PM

UCLinden: I'm wonderin' 'bout Guadalcanal too, 'specially after I read somewhere he's got a Casino Drive connection through (I think) his dam's sire.  That smells funny.  He's either a rabbit or deliberately there to interfere with BB in some way.  I have a friend who was even wonderin' if it was "arranged" for him to get the #2 post.

I must be the only one not to doubt BB's ability to go the extra 1/4 mile.  His grandsire was Danzig and Danzig Connection won the 1986 Belmont.  'Course he did that off a win in the Peter Pan earlier...

Harrison 05 Jun 2008 10:46 PM

I was hoping to see Calvin Borel go to the winners circle with Dennis of Cork. Someone please explain why they changed jockeys. I think it's a bad move.    

Nose Problem 05 Jun 2008 10:50 PM

What makes all you people think he hasn't been looked in the eye? I would venture to guess given the sheer number of horses he has had in his races, he has been looked in the eye. Perhaps the rocket acceleration is the result. He has won on turf, broke from the 20 post in the Derby and ran into a strong head wind all the while leaving his competition looking like they didn't show up for the race. Check out the times of his races. These races weren't slow by any stretch of the imagination. Closing in 19:08 in the Preakness. WOW! Battle tested? depends on ones definition of battle tested I guess. Perhaps last years crops would have given him a run for his money but make no mistake, BB would have been game and maybe even won based on what I have seen.

Karen 05 Jun 2008 10:55 PM

Nose Problem: It's pretty simple. Robby is a better rider. Remember the Preakness last year? This was a very smart move.

jshandler 05 Jun 2008 10:57 PM

If Big Brown becomes a Triple Crown Champion, How will he be rated in history since he has no competion that is equal to his calibar as a race horse. Affirmed had Alydar. Will anyone remember the competitors that Big Brown faced, not likely.

Cheri 05 Jun 2008 11:02 PM

J,Everyone has their favorites. I like the way Borel handled this horse.Just as long as Cork beats the fleet I'll be happy. I'm going with... Cork,Casino,BB.I know "goodluck with that"!

Nose Problem 05 Jun 2008 11:34 PM

I do not understand how Big Brown's pedigree has been called blue collar by the media. Did they mean blue blooded? Also, he has been regarded as not bred for a 1 1/2 miles and win the Belmont.

Big Brown has a Dosage Index (DI) of 1.67 and a Center of Distribution (CD) of 0.36. He is below the average DI for Belmont winners since 1940 which is 2.82 and the CD 0.52. A significant dosage advantage in his pedigree.

Casino Drive, supposedly bred for the Belmont distance and beyond, according to all the experts. He has a DI of 3.67 and a CD of 0.93. Both Jazil and Rags To Riches had a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 0.89-0.86 respectively, and they won. Being all three DIs and CDs higher than Big Brown's. There is a substantial direct relationship between low DI and CD and the ability to win at longer distances of 10 to 12 furlongs.

Among the influences in Big Brown's pedigree, he is inbred to Northern Dancer 3x3 through Boundary and his broodmare sire Nureyev, a tremendous Classic and Brilliant influence (Northern Dancer) which translates into tactical speed and stamina. Does he not have that? Did you see him getting tired in the stretch after running 1 mile in the derby? Galloping out, he appeared to be more than ready for a second round.

Nureyev, as a broodmare sire, has an average winning distance (AWD) of 8.58 furlongs. In addition to this, up to his 4th generation, Big Brown has the following sires:

Roberto-Classic influence

Forli-Classic influence

Sword Dancer-Belmont winner 1959

Damascus-Intermediate/Classic influence

Round Table-Solid influence

Danzig-Intermediate/Classic influence

Nureyev-Classic influence

6 Chefs-de-Race to his 4th generation only. How much more Classic (stamina) influence can a horse can get?

Deputy Minister, on the other hand, is the broodmare sire of Jazil, Rags To Riches and now Casino Drive, Better Than Honour, the possible mare of the century, record breaking, etc. No intention of taking anything away from the quality of her womb. Deputy Minister, has an AWD of 8.36 furlongs, lower than and almost identical to Big Brown's Nureyev 8.58. I do not see much difference there to say his pedigree is not ideal for 12 furlongs as well.

No doubt Casino Drive is royally bred, and has plenty of Belmont winners in his pedigree. However, I cannot seem to find, where is the fault in Big Brown's pedigree to not be considered Blue Blooded? He is Blue Blood himself, not blue collar; and where is the fault to suggest 12 furlongs is not an ideal distance for him? He has way more than enough stamina by means of his aptitudinal Classic influence sires in his pedigree to win the Belmont Stakes.

I suggest the media experts should review these facts and more, before continuing with those remarks.

Secretariat's Secretary 05 Jun 2008 11:49 PM

You must not be aware of the fact that the Japanese people train their horses differently. They don't believe in breezing their horses so much as conditioning them with fast walks and strong gallops. Leave him out if you don't believe he'll get the distance, but I think he'll be a factor. Whether he wins or not is up to him and the rest of the field.

Good luck to them all.

cybertron_log 06 Jun 2008 12:33 AM

Let's talk about the anticipated margin of Big Brown's victory.  Jason and others who are forcasting less than a five lengths drubbing of this field by the BIG ONE is still underrating the ability of this marvellous racehorse.  Those who harbour doubts about his stamina based on his sire Boundary's propensity to throw sprinters need to be reminded that there were similar doubts about the immortal Secretariat, being a son of the speedball and speed producing sire Bold Ruler.  History is about to be repeated.  Perhaps not the 31 lengths margin or Big Red's track record but certainly we should see an extra dimension of this phenomenon that is Big Brown especially if Kent D decides to take the race by the scruff of the neck from early.  If Casino Drive, with the "Triple Crown killer" Edgar Prado in the saddle, is sufficiently recovered from his impressive, fast time, Peter Pan victory I expect him to be second ahead of Dennis Of Cork and Tale Of Ekati.  If Edgar Prado tries to turn the race into a stamina contest by challenging early, then he may finish with Casino Drive off the board.  If there is a shocker in the race I wouldn't be too surprised by Todd Pletcher's horse Ready's Echo for second money of course.  

Ranagulzion 06 Jun 2008 1:05 AM

Cheri.. that argument is old please let it go... How can he have competition when he is the greatest 3 year old ever... give some love to the Triple Crown winner and stop being a hater.

I don't think anyone has brought this up but do you think Casino Drive is going to like an extra 10 lbs on his back compared to last race ???

1. Big Brown

2. Macho Again

3. Denis of Cork

4. Casino Drive

Big Brown wins by 12.

draynay 06 Jun 2008 1:05 AM

Ya Big Brown is Good But Don't Forget Denis Of Cork And Casion Drive And Denis of Cork IS Not A Big Upset I Think Ready's Echo Will

Be The Big Upset But I Like Big Brown But His Trainer is A Jerk That all I Have To Say

Leah P. 06 Jun 2008 1:24 AM

I just wanted to remind you all who may have forgotten...Secretariat´s time in the Belmont is a still-standing WORLD record, not just a track record. No horse besides him has gotten the 1 and 1/2 miles on dirt in under 2:25.

Can Big Brown break his world record? Probably not, but I still think he will win decisively with a fast time.

redneck_fire 06 Jun 2008 6:44 AM

Here are 2 bets you can take to the bank:  Indian Blessing in the Acorn AND Denis of Cork in the Belmont.

Mike from Ossineke, Michigan 06 Jun 2008 6:56 AM

I respect the author's opinion but I have to say, the "tired horse" argument for Casino Drive just doesn't hold water.  Watch the "slow" workout the other day with Edgar aboard.... this was completely deliberate and orchestrated by his trainer.  Again, it's unconventional by our standards here in North America but this is how they've chosen to bring the horse into this race.  If Edgar had been urging Casino Drive through the final 3/16's of the workout and say they'd finished up in something around 51 or 52 seconds, then you might have an argument that Casino Drive is tired or perhaps something else was wrong.  To work though in 57  with the jock sitting still and the connnections exclaiming that that's exactly what they wanted.... this is not a tired horse, he's just being brought into a race in a fashion very foreign to our methods.  There would have to be something severely wrong (way beyond being "tired") for Casino Drive to work in 57 as well as something completely wrong with Edgar Prado if the trainer had asked for 12 second clips and they come home in 57.  No, this was deliberate.  Casino Drive is not going to permit Big Brown the easy walkover many of you see this race as being for him. We're going to see what BB is made of and if he wins, great for him even though I am starting to loathe Rick Dutrow.

Jeff M 06 Jun 2008 8:11 AM

Anyone have any thoughts on how the Saturday forecast of 96 degree temps and high humidity might affect BB and the otehrs? I don't like takin' a walk in that weather much less runnin' 1 1/2 miles.

Harrison 06 Jun 2008 9:20 AM

I would love to see Big Brown vs. Curlin but we all know the truth and the truth is the Curlin camp wants nothing to do with Big Brown and will avoid him like the plague.

The Curlin camp wants to go around beating empty fields and pretend they are doing something. The best horse in the world right now is Big Brown if they Curlin camp wants to prove something run against the best... but I promise you Jason you will here nothing from them... they will continue to hide from Big Brown.

draynay 06 Jun 2008 9:49 AM

Does BB shake loose and Kent given the green light to finally unwrap him and he wins by 20, or, maybe after this race the Crop of 2005 doesn't look quite so bad after all? Place BB on top, and be sure to have Tale of Ekati, who thanks to exercise rider Kristin Troxell is finally ready to roll, Icabad Crane, a smaller horse with a bigger heart  who will grind and grind and grind down the long stretch, and maybe the biggest surprise of all, Ready's Echo, yet another guy made to run all day, and who will come Saturday.

Bryce Be Quick 06 Jun 2008 10:03 AM

Hey you nay-sayers.  BROWNIE is awesome. Give this wonderful athlete the credit he deserves, his talent has nothing to do with Dutrow's ego or the owners. He could have won the Derby and Preakness by so many more lengths, but Kent was smart enough to pull him up, to leave that "extra something in the tank." BROWNIE is full of himself, extremely tactical, wants to run like the wind, and he will, and even if he is pressured, he will blow by the other contenders.  No, he does not have to win by 31 lengths, just win and win he will.  Kent has too much love for Brownie to push him just to get the extra lengths. All that matters is he come home first and of course, SAFETY FIRST FOR ALL THE CONTENDERS.

Linda 06 Jun 2008 11:09 AM

Interesting foot problem arising with CD. Could this be why he isn't showing much interest in working? If he has heat in his foot, I am surprised they are not considering scratching him. They need to do what is best for the horse.

Karen 06 Jun 2008 12:54 PM

Just saw the comment on Casino Drives hind foot. If he scratches that changes the exotic bets, what do you think? Draynay I repeat for the third and last time,What's your expert explanation on your boring comments about Curlin? He beats "empty fields" .One more time,8,808,000 in earnings 3rd on the all-time earnings list.Ran 3rd, win and 2nd in the TC.WON the Classic WON the World cup.I'm pretty sure somewhere along that amazing string of GRADE ONE races he hooked at least one nice horse. Or are you going to trash the entire field of the BC and the WC?

Wanda 06 Jun 2008 1:27 PM

Casino Drive will finish up the track, if he runs at all.

WT 06 Jun 2008 1:35 PM

Any truth to Big Brown not looking good at this last workout.

I would throw him out and take a shot with the field for a huge tri.

Hammer 06 Jun 2008 1:42 PM

I have never bet on a horse race in my life. Not much of a gambler I guess. I enjoy racing for the pure joy of watching what I consider the most amazing animal on earth doing what they are bred to do. Nothing is more beautiful. I just purchased a hat in memory of Eight Belles that says "beauty in motion". That about sums it up. With that said, my pick for the Belmont is BB, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati. In that order. I am getting the feeling that CD will be scratched. How can you go into a mile and a half race against a monster like BB and not be 100%? It just doesn't make sense to run him if he is faltering even slightly.

Karen 06 Jun 2008 1:52 PM

To Cheri: In reference to how BB AKA 'Splotchy' will be remembered, no one remembers any of Seattle Slew's triple crown opponents either outside of Sanhedrin and Run Dusty Run. I remember Run Dusty Run as he was the horse I was rooting for in '77 and I remember Sanhedrin only because of the Belmont call the last eighth of a mile. The only way one can remember/evaluate a horse objectively is after their racing career is over, and judged by the 'company' they keep. Seattle Slew would've been remembered as the best of a bad lot in '77 if he didn't return at four and destroy Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup and Slew gained more stature for the one (of three)race he lost, in losing by a nose to Exceller in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Only time will tell with 'Splotchy.'

Billy D. 06 Jun 2008 2:05 PM

Wanda... I am going to answer you one more time.  The Curlin camp will tell you if asked that Big Brown is a very nice horse and congrats on the Triple Crown ... but they will not commit to meeting him anywhere because they know they cannot beat him. He is the best horse in the world right now and Curlin will never face him.  Curlin will continue to duck and hide.

Curlin was a tired horse and got beat by a filly in the Belmont... Watch what a true champion does to the field in the Belmont tomorrow...then come back and talk to me...

draynay 06 Jun 2008 2:14 PM

Just curious Draynay, how do you come to the conclusion that Curlin's connections want no part of BB?  Is this actually based on someting real or is it you just shooting your mouth off like Dutrow?  In the opinion of this graded stakes winning trainer, Curlin would be a very, very tough customer for Big Brown to handle.

JEFF M 06 Jun 2008 2:17 PM

Hammer: According to what I read, BB galloped the full mile and half this morning and was in fine form. At this point his camp is saying he has never looked better.

Karen 06 Jun 2008 2:18 PM

How does a tired horse run eyeball to eyeball with a super talented filly and go on to win the BC and World Cup?At least we know for sure that Curlin can run an eighth of a mile hooked and not puke. Jurys still out on BB whether he can look another horse in the eye and keep on running.Their not machines you know and they can all get beat.

Wanda 06 Jun 2008 2:33 PM

I forgot to add that's why they have to run the race cause they don't hand out the purses to the favorite before the race.

Wanda 06 Jun 2008 2:38 PM

Wouldn't be cool if this Big Brown/Curlin thing turns into a match race of some sort? As in like Seabiscut and War Admiral...that would be AWESOME!!

My oppinion on the Big Brown and Curlin thing: Curlin and Big Brown are, to me, of the same strengths...both undefeated in 2008. Although, Big Brown had more of the advantage bc he has NEVER lost a race... Curlin, on the other hand, won Horse of the Year and the Duabi and the Classic, not to mention the Preakness.

Big Brown reminds me of Smarty Jones...don't you think?

 Big Brown Trpile Crown winner, kinda rolls off the tongue doesn't it??

Snowmane 06 Jun 2008 2:40 PM

Snowname: I will have to respectfully disagree with you regarding a match race. If Curlin should meet up with BB under normal racing conditions with other horses in the field, great. But NO MATCH RACES. Also, I don't think BB is anything like Smarty Jones. Physically Smarty was a small horse with a big heart. He could prove to be rank and had a hard time settling, which in my opinion lost him the Belmont. BB has a brilliant mind. His trust in his jockey and his explosive turn of foot makes him even more talented than people think. I loved Smarty to death and think he was a true champion. I also think he was the best horse that day that didn't win, but in comparison with BB, I would say there are many differences.

But yes, Big Brown Triple Crown Winner........ Sounds soooo good!!!

Karen 06 Jun 2008 3:11 PM

Jeff M are you based in California? If you are who I think you are,thanks for the backup! Jason did you collect on your Preakness bet?    

Wanda 06 Jun 2008 3:34 PM

Wanda: I did collect my Preakness bet from Draynay. He is a man of his word. Pick 4 selections to come...

jshandler 06 Jun 2008 3:57 PM

You know what is some interesting reading. Go to MSN and read their story on BB and read the comments posted. Clearly a bunch of people who know NOTHING about this industry. One guy said he can't wait to see BB run again and again and again!! I would venture to guess the casual racing fan getting caught up in the hype has no idea he will retire after his 3 year old campaign. Thank goodness for the likes of this website. Educated, knowledgable horse nuts!!!!

Karen 06 Jun 2008 4:00 PM

Glad to hear it Jason.Man I'm having issues with the Tri never mind the Pick 4.That Super you like it's fine but I have to do a 50 cent one.I don't have any extra money after Vegas.I think I'll wait on that one to see how bad Casino Drives hind foot is.

Wanda 06 Jun 2008 4:29 PM

Ha Ha Ha Draynay, who's duckin who now?  The connections of Curlin are interested in the Mass Cap and the Big Ole Browneyes connections want nothing to do with it. Instead they are going to keep him running against this pathetic class of 3 yr olds in the Travers.  Face it Curlin is the reigning Horse of The Year. He doesn't have to go chasing anyone, if they want to prove it against him they should come find him. A Challenger seeks out the Champ wherever he goes not the other way around. No Mass Cap for Brownie. That's a quote from Duck Duck Dutrow!!!! Eat crow little man!!

draynot 06 Jun 2008 4:49 PM

I see draynay keeps crowing about Curlin getting beat by a filly in the Belmont but refuses to admit Big Browneye has faced only weak 3 yr olds. I recall draynay saying that Brownie has beaten multiple GR1 winners. As I said before someone had to win those GR1 races that were incidentally written only for what is a terribly weak group of 3 yr olds. My point here is that didn't those multiple GR1 winners that draynay keeps touting as great competition for the Browneye ALL get whipped by a filly in the derby? So much for that argument draynay.

draynot 06 Jun 2008 4:58 PM

Draynay,

Curlin and his connections won't hide from Big Brown.  They don't have to.  Curlin is a brilliant horse and not of the caliber BB is racing against.  Let them hook up

and see who wins.  If you saw the

Dubai World Cup you know what Curlin can do.  Let's see them match up.  I don't think they will duck BB.  Let's see the two of them battle it out.  That would be something to watch.  

Monica V 06 Jun 2008 6:18 PM

Draynay,

just exactly what has BB been beating?  Not much.

Monica V 06 Jun 2008 6:19 PM

I'm neither educated nor knowledgable, just a horse nut who wants to learn.  Keep talking, guys!

I'm interested in the phrases Dosage Index and Center of Distribution.  What do they mean?  Are they both or either breeding related?

Daffodil 06 Jun 2008 6:31 PM

I am with you Karen, NO MATCH RACE not just for Big Brown and Curlin but any horse. Rember the greatest filly ever Ruffin and KY.Derby winner Foolish Pleasure

Maggie 06 Jun 2008 6:57 PM

I don't understand most of the language either, but I knew enough to bet on BB and won $850.

Thats why I'm reading, to get a feel for this Saturday.

Ü

HORSEY1 06 Jun 2008 8:27 PM

Whoa, Draynay! You say the Curlin camp is "ducking everyone?" the BC Classic and Dubai WC are the two richest races in the world--they are THE races for all-comers--c'mon now, I know you like Big Brown--so do I--but you're dreaming if you think the Curlin camp is looking for easy races--why can't we celebrate Big Brown as the horse he is instead of trashing Curlin--that's how you come off--I WANT to see them meet--I think Big Brown is one of the all timers but I still would like to see him do it v older/v Curlin---talk, including yours, is cheap--that's why you run the races! That's how you know!

Matthew W 07 Jun 2008 12:01 AM

I a shocked and annoyed Jason looking at the picks some of these so called experts including Mike Watchmaker. Picking Casino Drive or Denis of Cork to win isn't handicapping its just plain dumb.  There is no justification for choosing a horse with just 2 starts over the current Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner.  And Denis of Cork ??? How did he suddenly make up 10 lengths from the Derby ?

Don't start talking about Smarty Jones and other such GARBAGE it has nothing to do with the race today and the horses in it. Big Brown is poised to make racing history and there are several CLOWNS in the industry who think its cool to actually think another horse other than Big Brown is going to win this thing.  Well I am here to tell all of you experts are more "FOOL" than cool. Mr Watchmaker didn't you pick Z Fortune to beat Smooth Air in the Ohio Derby? I guess your like the weather man now... only problem with that is some idiot may actually be listening to your advice and may be losing good honest money because of your attempt to be "Cool". Maybe if your jobs depended on being right you would take a little more care and try to be right.  There is nothing right about picking any horse in this race other than Big Brown.  There is no angle, no sheet , no number, no anything that leads anyone with half a brain to another horse other than Big Brown for the win.  Before the Florida Derby I told people on this very forum that Big Brown was going to dominate, win, and be our next Triple Crown winner I saw that 3 months ago and now after unbelievable performances in his last three G1 wins I see the experts are as wrong today as they were 3 months ago. As of today at 6:45pm they will no longer be experts just plain everyday FOOLS and Mr. Watchmaker may I suggest a new line of work at channel 5 I hear they are looking for a weather man over there.

draynay 07 Jun 2008 7:28 AM

This race has been gift wrapped for the Big Ole Browneye. Let's examine the "competition". A Maiden (Guadalcanal), a minor stakes winner (Macho Again)who Brownie just whipped last out and who has lost to multiple horses the Browneye has already whipped, a G3 winner at a distance of 1 mile (Denis of Cork)who Brownie has whipped by 8, a horse still eligible for NW2 races (Da' Tara), a G1 winner by default (Tale of Ekati) someone had to win this race even though they came home crawling and that was at only 1 1/8 miles and that Brownie has already beaten by 11, a G2 winner at 2 by default (Anak Nakal)who Brownie has beaten by 17 and has been whipped this year by Tale of Ekati, another eligible for NW2 races (Ready's Echo), and lastly another minor stakes winner just barely against nobody who Brownie has already whipped when shutdown by 6 (Ichabad Crane). Nothing in the way of "competition" here. If Brownie doesn't win for some reason I'm sure Draynay will have an excuse. Duck Duck Dutrow doean't deserve this but the Big Ole Browneye does. Happy Birthday, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and Happy Graduation, all wrapped in one big gift!!!    

draynot 07 Jun 2008 8:27 AM

UC Linden-- as for the logic of entering a horse who has not broken the maiden-- the simple answer is because owner/trainer Fred Seitz could I did, consistent with the notion "you got to have a dream to have a dream come true": having finished second the last time out on the turf going a mile and a half, Seitz figures "hey, my horse can go the distance, is training well, and how many shots am I going to have running the 'Canal at a mile and a half on this side of the Atlantic? Luck being the confluence of skill and opportunity, it is fairly debatable if the former present in enough abundance to matter, but the opportunity is there, regardless of how you calculate the logic of the decision.

Tell you what: if 'Canal acts up in the gate and/or comes out bumping BB, there are going to be some very unhappy people, to include those placing down bets, for Mr. Seitz to deal with, and no amount of PR spin is going to work post-race.

Final analysis: like Casino Drive for other reasons, 'Canal a non-factor here. Casino Drive's connections did many of you a HUGE favor this morning when they decided to scratch him and look for the next plane back to Japan.

Bryce Be Quick 07 Jun 2008 9:23 AM

Monica this is the last time I will respond to a dimwitted comment.  Big Brown is beating EVERY single 3 year old that has the nerve to step on the track and give it a try and he is doing it in 5 weeks.  It has not been done in 30 years so I guess its pretty hard to do and he is doing it easy... I guess that is what has you miffed is that he is making look sooooo easy well guess what ... the great ones make it look easy.

draynay 07 Jun 2008 10:52 AM

Draynay,you just Don't get it do you?.BB has absolutely been beating a sorry-sap crop of 3y.o.'s..Casino Drive would have been his stiffest competition to date,he did have the fastest 1 1/8 mile race of ANY 3y.o. so far,right?Too bad he's out of the Belmont..If either Secreteriat,Affirmed or Slew had faced these same slow-pokes,they'd have taken the first 2 legs of the TC by 10+ lengths easily.So don't say he's the Greatest 3y.o. ever,that's Idiotic and just plain stupid.He's very talented,but really?..Now that C'Drive is out,BB should destroy this field!..BB Triple Crown Winner 08',with an *.

Slew.em.All 07 Jun 2008 12:02 PM

Hey Draynay: How is your day? I can hardly contain my excitement and emotions. I will be cheering BB down that stretch and when it is over and I catch my breath I will have experienced true greatness in my lifetime! By the way, how great of an announcer is Tom Durkin?  I love the emotion in his voice. I can't wait to hear him when BB crosses the wire and brings home history!!! Enjoy Draynay!

Karen 07 Jun 2008 1:06 PM

Don't respond to you know who,maybe he'll go away!

Oh sorry I said that with my outside voice.

Wanda 07 Jun 2008 3:18 PM

The great ones make it look easy againt good competition. Brownie has made it look easy against NOTHING!! We should have a Triple Crown winner here but with an asterisk. "The competition this year measured up to nothing".

draynot 07 Jun 2008 3:27 PM

This is for you Draynay!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!       GREATEST EVER? how about the biggest flop ever? THE FIRST TRIPLE CROWN HOPEFUL TO FINISH LAST!!! Beaten by a field of nobody's. Good thing he tried the Belmont and ducked Curlin in the Foster, that would have been a massacre, wait this was a massacre!!!!

draynot 07 Jun 2008 6:48 PM

Way to go Dutrow! Where is that triple crown he guaranteed? Thank God he did not win, this guy is the most crass, undeserving, illegal, horse doping ex doper of a trainer, who should be banned from the sport! I hope he crawls back under the rock he came from, and we never hear from him again. I for one sure miss Charlie Wittingham, and Laz Barerra, two guys who had class. Big Brown is maybe the most overrated horse to come around since Arazi. He showed his true colors today, a good horse running against mediocre competition. Thankfully the ignorant comparisons to Secretariat will stop. If they dare put him on the track against Curlin, which we ALL know they won't, we will all see Big Brown for what he is: a decent horse, not a great one, like any of the triple crown winners, or Sunday Silence, Spectacular Bid, John Henry or A.P. Indy. Big Brown is a class below, and Dutrow is not even on the radar!

Matt V 07 Jun 2008 7:06 PM

Hey Draynay, Are you going to be as quiet as your idol, Dutrow, now that you have that egg on your face? Actually, you were right, BB did make history, The only triple crown hopeful to finish LAST in the Belmont. By the way, there was a maiden in the race, who beat him. Funny huh? I guess BB would have finished about  oh 65 lengths behind Secretariat? Gonna go to the track tomorrow Draynay, got any tips for me????

Matt V 07 Jun 2008 7:14 PM

Ha ha can you say BIG BUST!!!!

Big Brown not only does not win the triple crown but is the first horse in triple crown history to win the first two legs of the TC and then come in dead last!!! Hey Dutrow is eating crow!

AJ 07 Jun 2008 7:56 PM

Well, Affirmed remains on top.

The jockey did the smart thing in pulling Big Brown up,who wanted to see another horse wasted on the track needlessly? Curlin and Big Brown should be allowed to retire to the stallion barn, for sure Curlin's earned it and so has Big Brown.

Appysrule 07 Jun 2008 7:57 PM

Still am miffed by Draynay's jab at the Curlin camp--looking for empty races?? Like BC Classic/Dubai WC in a cakewalk? No, Big Brown is a great horse, and his easing at Belmont does not tarnish that greatness--but it will always be wishful boasting until Big Brown faces and defeats Curlin--NOW Brownie NEEDS to beat Curlin! Now the Big Brown Camp needs to face Curlin! I don't fault a horse for losing The Belmont--Big Brown should have won by twenty! I had hoped Kent wouldn't have jerked that beautiful horse back--after all the talk of "pushbutton", Kent chokes, and forces a horse out of his natural cruising gate---big moves are for the Derby/Preakness--The Belmont requires a relaxed stride--Kent should have gone out with him--on his own, he makes the lead, then, who knows? I never thought of Kent as a speed jock--he likes to set the target0--but today--BE the target! Take your horse out there like the easy going frontrunner he is and has always been...but to disrespect Curlin (for what?) and also Secretariat (for losing five races--my Gawd! I was there--he WAS a superhorse! hears hoping for a beautiful Fall, and a healthy Big Brown...

Matthew W 07 Jun 2008 8:28 PM

Draynay . . . You can argue allyou want that Curlin's people are ducking Big Brown when every horseplayer worth his or her salt knows that's not true. And dollars to donuts, as the saying goes, Big Brown ain't gonna be ducking anyone in the weeks to come -- he'll retire with some "unexpected injury." That's a bigger lock than him winning the Belmont, for sure. What is also true is that I'm CERTAIN you'll be ducking this board after lambasting everyone who posted here as a blithering idiot for not agreeing that Big Brown had stepped down from Mt. Olympus bearing wings. Draynay? Draynay? You there? I don't HEAR you! Where oh where is Draynay! Has anyone seen him? Incidentally, how does it feel to be such a big putz fitting Big Brown for coronation when he hadn't done much but beat up on a medicore group?

Phileboy 07 Jun 2008 9:30 PM

The first time he faces any kind of adversity and he threw in the towel. And to think it was just a small matter of one horse in front of him entering the first turn. Rags to Riches would have destroyed the Browneye. At least she overcame a bad stumble at the start to win the Belmont last year. Dutrow, what a jerk. Telling reporters to get out of his face b4 and after the race.

draynot 07 Jun 2008 9:51 PM

I have a riddle for all you horseplayers who have been posting on this board. Question: What is the following? "Whaaah! Whaaah! Whaaah!" Answer: Draynay crying like a little baby as he watches Big Brown fade from view, getting beaten more than 25 lengths by EVERY HORSE IN THE RACE!

phileboy 07 Jun 2008 10:02 PM

I am very happy Big Brown was not more seriously injured.  It seems the foot is more of a issue than many let on....

"Far Better it is to Dare Mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows no victory nor defeat."

draynay 07 Jun 2008 10:15 PM

Nice quote Draynay who's is it? I'll repeat what I said on the Pick 4 blog the horse was not right. Man I thought he was going to clip heels. KD says he wanted to jump into the bridle so when he was towards the outside why didn't he go to race riding?

Wanda 07 Jun 2008 11:02 PM

Draynay,

According to Larry Bramlage, Kent Desormeaux and Rick (bigmouth) Dutrow, the horse was not hurt. My humble opinon after 50 years in racing is that the horse got taken out of his race. He was rank and when Kent kept throttling him down whipped him to the outside and bumped another horse he got mad and decided to throw in the towel. Not the sign of a great horse. I don't know how long you've been interested in racing my guess is not long, but when they necropsied Secretariat his heart was much larger than the average. I doubt you were old enough to see him run, if you had you would never have questioned it. The other thing, since you're quoting poetry "blessed be the meek for they will inherit the earth"  The racing gods gave Dutrow just what he needed, with his cocky attitude and his foul mouth, 'divine justice'. BB is a nice horse, not a superstar, who had the misfortune of being hooked up with some sad individuals.

fanofclass 07 Jun 2008 11:27 PM

Draynay,

That last post is so not you!  what happened to the sure thing!  The greatest horse in 30 years and my dimwitted comments? The hoof was not a problem, it was fine after the race. That didn't get him beat and neither did Kent. The horse was out of gas before the turn for home.  Greatest horse in 30 years??????  You have been posting slamming Secretariat and Curlin and even speaking for Curlin's connections.  How well do you know his connections?  You don't at all.  You have been insulting everyone who doesn't agree with you like you have some special knowledge about everything in racing.  Seems to me you would be better served to keep your arrogant trap shut an allow others to voice their opinions because you have proven to know NOTHING!

MonicaV 07 Jun 2008 11:47 PM

AJ,Matt,Phileboy: clearly this is just about you boasting to try to "one up" Draynay however your comments are pure ignorance. BB finished last because he was pulled up by a caring jockey who clearly knew something was not right with his horse. To continue to boast about that shows you clearly don't get it. Either that or you don't care about the horses themselves. Horses have "off" days for a number of reasons. Just like every other athlete on this planet. Maybe he just didn't feel like running today. For those of you thinking he was "overrated" think again. Go back and watch his Derby and Preakness and then lets talk. Even go back to when he broke his maiden. Please don't bore me with this "he had no competition" song and dance. look at his times and do the math. To dismiss BB because he didn't fire today is ridiculous. Draynay, I appreciate your confidence in BB. You know talent when you see it. Please do not change the way you feel about this horse. We had a great ride. All great things must come to an end. Yes, I would have loved to see him win the TC because he deserved it. But what seems to be the way of the future, the winner was a fresh horse. By the way, BB demolished this horse in the Florida derby by like 20 lengths. I am not dismissing Da'tara's performance. Today was his day and he ran a great race. He was fresh and it showed. After a long afternoon of scratching my head and reflecting, I have come to some conclusions. BB will have a beautiful life at Three Chimneys. Us true racing fans will look to the future and keep watching for the "great" ones. BB will forever be etched in our memories because of the excitement he brought to us in such a short time and for his immense talent.  Kent,Kazuo and Larry Jones will stand out for the obvious love they have for their horses. Eight Belles tragedy will not be in vain as this industry will finally make long over due changes to strenghthen the industry. No, nothing was lost during this triple crown campaign. In fact, a lot was gained. Thank you racing Gods for watching over all the horses today.

Karen 07 Jun 2008 11:48 PM

You can say all you want about Kent's ride but the fact of the matter is, BB is not the greatest ever. Had he been a truly great horse, he would have won that race no matter what happened in the early strides. He was poised in the right position and had nothing left. He was rank when he started and didn't show his "intelligence" that everyone speaks about. This was only his 6th race. He could still be a competitor and this loss really doesn't diminish what he has accomplished but he needs to run without steroids to prove himself. You won't see him race again. He will be retired shortly. It won't be right away, they will come up with something and he'll never race again. The breeders will press for it, afraid he will lose again and the stud fees won't be as high as they hoped. They've got to get him to the breeding shed now before his value goes down.

MonicaV 08 Jun 2008 12:01 AM

Karen, I'm interested in your comments. Unless there is another Karen posting, your comments are vacillating back and forth.You're defending draynay, who has been abusive to a number of people on these comments including you i.e. the Servis stays classy. Life isn't all sunshine and roses and you say you've never bet on a race. I enjoy watching the horses run too but if no one bet there would be no racing. It is a hard, difficult and trying life.It's not about looking up statistics and then agreeing with everyone, I'm confused as to where you stand exactly.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 12:20 AM

" Loose Lips Sink Ships!"

Slew.em.All 08 Jun 2008 4:19 AM

the race is a throwaway--Big Brown should've won by twenty--I hope he's sound--sure thought Kent kinda panicked on the clubhouse turn and I can fathom Brownie ckucking it v the overkill reign-in--that's NOT Real Quiet Kent--That's a normal speed horse with a ton of talent--make'em beat'ya--go out with him--anyway hope he's sound and no, not trying to one-up anyone...I think Big brown hasn't beaten anyone--yet I also think Big Brown is one of the best horses I have ever seen.....horses just don't win the Fla Dby/Ky Derby from the far outside--by five....

Matthew W 08 Jun 2008 7:20 AM

Karen I'm here to bore you with the no competition angle. You and Draynay need to join the rest of us in the real world. This class of 3 yr olds is one of the weakest I have ever seen. Overall The Big Ole Browneyes times rank somewhere in the middle and not near the top. This isn't no superstar, he hasn't proven it against more than one generation and over a period of years and never will. Big Browneye is a very good horse but to put him with the greats is still very premature which I believe Draynay was as a baby since his brain obviously didn't develop quite right. Time to Brownie him off to the breeding shed where I hope he doesn't show to be as impotent as he did yesterday the first time he was faced with any kind of pressure. Once again I say, to beat nothing by multiple lengths proves nothing. That happens every day across the country at every track.

draynot 08 Jun 2008 7:27 AM

End story:

Japanese horsemen "love for the horse", put the horse first!

Dutrow and IEAH "love for self", put me first.

very arrogant of them. I spoke with a trainer on belmont day, before the race and she said he wouldnt compete and when she saw the foot she said they must be crazy to think he would get a mile and a half on that. So you people can say all u want but they scratched CD for a bruise because it was best for HORSE. BB had no chance and pride got in the way!

ss_in_md 08 Jun 2008 8:05 AM

Just looked back on my betting comments Jason. In Canada we have 20 cent Supers But we can only use that bet on Canadian tracks. Also I should have said 60 cent Super instead of 50 cent. Sorry about that I'm not an expert better.All in all it was a fun day and I'd sure like to here from everyone on how they did betting wise.I'm signed up for the roadtothebreederscup so looking forward to comments and suggestions on that. Are you going to carry on with these sites?

Wanda 08 Jun 2008 10:43 AM

Perhaps many of you need to go back and look at your predictions the day before the Kentucky Derby.

Big Brown was rushed into the Derby because of a brilliant performance in a Allowance race at Gulfstream Park.  It was his first race since having to be laid up with bad feet. After that performance he trained quickly for the Florida Derby and won that with ease and then headed for the Derby and history and gave one of the all time greatest performances.  On to the Preakness where he won with ease.  Then 2 weeks before the Belmont the foot problems came out again and Big Brown missed a couple of jogs on the track... the wear and tear of preparing and riding in 3 very tough races was beginning to show.  Unlike 30 years ago each race is tougher because they keep throwing fresh 3 year olds at you.

The thing is... I hear many of you laughing but none of you picked Da Tara for the win...?  So what are you laughing about ? Big Brown didn't win the Triple Crown so I was wrong ? Lol.. this is horseracing stick around I will be wrong again.

But I have to tell you I had more fun this year on the Triple Crown ride than ever before.  And it helped me more than I can ever tell you and along the way so did each and every one of you.  I have not mentioned it until now but a month ago my wife fell asleep at the wheel coming home from work and crashed. She was life flighted to a trauma unit and was in the hospital for a week after surgery. These conversations and blogs good and bad has helped me get through a very tough time. I want to thank all of you for engaging me and having meaningful discussions on a sport we all love.

I want to thank you too Jason for having such a great forum and I hope we can soon get into talking about handicapping now that the Triple Crown races are over. Again... thank you everyone.

draynay 08 Jun 2008 10:47 AM

To Draynay, Wanda and everyone else: Thank you for blogging with me and helping make this blog very successful. I enjoyed all of your thoughts and comments.

This blog is continuous and will run as long as I am at Blood-Horse. Sometime soon it will switch over to the name "Breeders Cup Chat" and we will start focusing on the second half of the racing season. I will have a post-Belmont blog later today. Thanks again and let's keep a good thing going.

jshandler 08 Jun 2008 11:03 AM

Draynay,

Sorry for your troubles, but one would think you would be less aggressive and more thankful. Calling people fools and other names and braggadocio aren't the way to endear yourself to people, just look at Dutrow. All I can say is your wife must be a wonderful person to be so fortunate. I have seen people in our hospital for months and then in our rehab hospital for a year or more with brain trauma from those types of accidents. Being in the medical field I can say I'm thrilled that she was so fortunate, is hopefully on the mend and best wishes to her. I think this should be a life changing episode for you as well and perhaps teach you that aggressive, angry behavior and name calling is not a benefit to anyone.

I'm glad you have a passion for horse racing and most of us that have been in it for years appreciate that type of fan, however we all have differing opinions and those are respected until abuse starts to fly. Save that for the college message boards or DeadSpin.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 12:15 PM

 Everybody wants to put it to Draynay and Dutrow and probably rightfully so! Both needed a large dose of humility and it was served to them on a silver platter yesterday.

The sad thing is that I believe horseracing really needed a triple crown winner. I have have been watching horseracing for 25 yrs and I now believe that I will never see a triple crown winner in my lifetime.

 There was a posting back about a month ago about all the imbreeding making these million dollar horses alot more fragile and with no durability! I think that really hit the nail on the head, as once again it was proven yesterday!

I guess my point is I am retiring from watching horseracing because the product the breeders are putting out isn't what it used to be, These big name horses are lucky to run 3 or 4 times a yr and then they retire.

 I am gonna go back and just enjoy watching the races at the little track right where I live and just be happy there. I live in Montana and the horse here are still pretty tough, they run 5 or 6 times in a 10 day meet, its still fun to try and handicap them because the horses here actually have some stats to read, they actually run 50 to 60 times in a 8 or 9 yr career!

Gman59063 08 Jun 2008 1:46 PM

Draynay: I hope your wife is doing well. That is a terrible thing. I do agree, these blogs are very therapeutic. It gives us a chance to engage in conversation whenever we want about a sport so few know much about or care to talk about (atleast where I live). I have appreciated agreeing and disagreeing with you with all due respect. Regardless of what the others are saying, I will always hold BB in high regard. He has a special quality that I know is there.

Draynot: According to Ragozin BB posted the fastest Kentucky Derby time in history. You can't set aside the fact that he ran and ran brilliantly from the outside post. He also posted one of the fastest closing times in Preakness history. No, the opening quarters weren't blistering but they were not soft by any stretch of the imagination. They were solid. That would include all the "poor" 3 year olds that BB has beaten. Plus, BB needs to be the best in "his" class. Which he was. Yes, you will argue he wasn't because he got beat yesterday but keep in mind that Da'tara was fresh. For whatever reason, BB didn't fire yesterday. After watching the re=play several times my best guess is this was largely jockey error. Kent should have let BB settle into stride where he was comfortable instead of yanking him around. He used a lot of energy and BB lost a lot of momentum just pulling him up and then asking him to run back up with the front runners. Plus put him 5 wide on the turn after using him early in the race and then expecting him to have anything left in the mile and half. You can't deny BB was not himself yesterday. Look at the re-play a few times. Watch BB break from the gate beautifully. Watch BB want to go to the lead without a problem and away from any traffic trouble. Kent was all over him. We all want to believe that horses are human. While I will agree they do have "human" like qualities from time to time, one must know that BB had no idea the TC was on the line. BB didn't throw in the towel, Kent did. When Kent decided it was time for him to run, BB didn't have it in him. Maybe he was pissed. My guess would have been he was hot, tired, pissed and was running 5 wide in the mile and half in sand. In my opinion Kent has to take some responsibility in BB's loss yesterday. He just does.

Karen 08 Jun 2008 2:44 PM

Karen thank you very much... and I could not agree more taking back BB like he did was a huge mistake on his part and playing it safe cost him. When a horse like that wants to run ...LET HIM RUN.

fanofclass ... I have no idea what you are talking about and I do not call people fools on this blog or any other.  People have opinions we all know that but they are simply bad opinions I let them know it. An example of that was the months I had to endure on this board of people telling me how wonderful California horses were and how they  were going to do this and that...

Should I have said... "Gee that is an interesting perspective but I differ..." No .. I said "Are you serious?" "Are you new to this?"

Big Brown won 3 G1 races in a row and won them in brilliant fashion. Are all Big Brown backers now idiots because the horse was tired or not ready to run? We were brilliant for 3 and dumb for 1...lol... I will take that all day long.

draynay 08 Jun 2008 4:01 PM

Karen,

Horses get mad, they also sulk and refuse to do what they don't want to do. Correct they don't have the power to reason, only human's do. Horses certainly are aware of when they are running, first by taking away the hay etc they also pick up on the human beings around them and the vibe they emanate. Usually the bigger the race the more nervous the humans the more the adrenalin starts to flow in everyone. The Belmont is a riders race for sure, but who's to say it was Kent's fault and what might have happened if he'd have let BB go. He had nearly run up on the heels of one horse and I think he was overly agressive and might have done something else on his own. If you've ever been on one of these high powered horses or even just ponied them, you know how helpless you can be at times. The colt's inexperience and immaturity showed almost as much as Ricky Dutrow's. I believe the horse did quit (throw in the towel) horses do it all the time in timed events and races whether it's not liking to be passed or not being able to go eyeball to eyeball, being sore or whatever. A really great horse will be like Rags who stumbled at the gate and won, Afleet Alex who nearly went down and Charismatic running to the wire on three legs after (Wayne believes)suffering two fractures in separate strides, being pushed into a speed duel by Chris (RIP) those are great performances. BB is a nice colt in a down year, handled badly, the egos got in the way. Maybe if Reynolds would have kept him, who knows.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 4:13 PM

Karen, it is YOU who is ignorant. BB is an average horse beating bad fields. If he was a great horse, who had decent handlers, don't you think he would have at least finished the race? He didn't post a speed figure of 100 for either the Derby or Preakness. You're just a bandwagoner like all of the others who know NOTHNG about racing. Like I said before, BB can not hold a candle to ANY of the TC winners, or Sunday Silence, Spectacular Bid, or any of the others who won the first 2 legs of the TC. Just because you lost your $2 across the board bet on BB don't try taking it out on me, by calling me ignorant!

Matt V 08 Jun 2008 4:46 PM

Draynay,

Never put in writing what you don't want people to remember. You can disagree without being insulting, you did it in several posts and I found those to be interesting, meanwhile these and others like them damage your street cred according to not just me but a few others as well. It doesn't make you "cool" to hurl insults, it just makes your argument ignorant.

"there are several CLOWNS in the industry who think its cool to actually think another horse other than Big Brown is going to win this thing. Well I am here to tell all of you experts are more "FOOL" than cool______ only problem with that is some idiot may actually be listening to your advice"  draynay 07 Jun 2008 7:28 AM "

"Monica this is the last time I will respond to a dimwitted comment.

draynay 07 Jun 2008 10:52 AM "

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 5:11 PM

Matt V

Hip, Hip Hooray. I've been surfing these blogs while working some CEU's for the last week, have never posted before this maybe one other time. I have seen Karen all over the place. She definitely sounds like an animal lover who likes to repeat statistics and articles but my guess is she knows zero about horse racing from first hand experience.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 5:24 PM

Matt and Fan of class: I have forgotten more about horse racing than you will ever know. Not only do I follow this sport with everything I have, I have been a horse owner and horse rider my entire life. I have two retired race horses in my pasture. My contribution to the sport I hold so dearly.  Plus if you have seen me all over the place, you know that I don't bet. I didn't lose a dime on BB. I have never bet on a horse race and I never will. I don't gamble. I love the sport for what it is, not what I can win. Furthermore, I was stating my opinion that Kent has a huge responsiblity in the outcome of this race. If either of you knew as much as you like to think you do about these animals you can certainly understand the elementary logic behind what you witnessed with Kent pulling BB up, almost as if asking him to stop and then asking him to get back into the race by running wide. If you are unaware of how much energy that takes and if you understand the definition of "momentum" than clearly you cannot find an argument there. I for one have never said BB was better or even compared to the other TC winners in any of my posts. In fact I have been quick to point out that he needed to win this race to even be mentioned in the same breath.

Flyin home: I have sparred with Draynay on these blogs. In fact, we disagreed on some issues of past performers however Draynay was never abusive to me. I find confidence like Dutrows and Draynays fun and engaging. I was just as sold on BB as Draynay and I still am. So Im not sure I understand your question as to where I stand. Isn't it o.k to have blogs that are in disagreement and still end up with a friendly poster on the other end of the line??? It sure should be. So, Fan of class. What is your "first hand" experience with racing?? Is it because you bet on races that makes you feel you have superior knowledge over someone who doesn't bet???

Karen 08 Jun 2008 6:09 PM

Matt: I didn't call you "ignorant" I believe I stated that those who are boasting about BB coming in dead last were making ignorant comments considering BB was pulled up by his jockey. Several times I might add. Worst ride by a jockey ever.

Karen 08 Jun 2008 6:11 PM

Fanofclass what don't you get ?  I was not talking about anyone person or blogger on this forum and did not call any Blogger here a fool or a clown.  I was talking in general about so called industry experts that are wrong and wrong every time. At some point I would like them to be accountable for their horrible picks time and time again.

But instead of worrying about Karen or me how about sharing with us your handicapping knowledge and tell us who is going to win the 4th and 5th races at Belmont on Thursday.

draynay 08 Jun 2008 6:22 PM

Karen,

I seriously doubt you have forgotten more than I know. My father has been training ranch, rode and race horses for 80 years we started racing horses 50 years ago, when I was a kid. We have retired and active rodeo and racehorses, broodmares and yearlings (including one descended from TC winner Count Fleet and Seabiscuit) I rode before I could walk, worked at the track as an assistant trainer and ponied horses on race day.Two of my family are professional riders. As far as discussing the law of physics and momentum, don't even go there, I already stated previously we are all degreed medical people, no brag just fact.

Being a fan is great, espousing your opinion like it's the gospel if you have never been on the frontlines doesn't give you much credibility. You took several people to task who disagreed with you and draynay, that's what I was cheering for. Also one of my previous posts said I read you didn't bet. I don't bet much but if someone didn't, like Matt, there wouldn't be a sport called horse racing. The cost is too prohibitive to just watch the horses run with the wind in their faces as one of the animal rights activists put it.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 6:43 PM

Draynay,

Go back and read your own posts, Monica V sure thought you were insulting her and so did a number of others. I've been watching TVG as I've been working on CEU's I handicap when I have time, don't bet a lot but I do well when I do. I don't tout other people, who knows how much disposable income they have, and Karen doesn't bet. I can only say you are one angry young man.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 6:49 PM

First to Flyin home: I didn't mean to refer to you in my last post. That was a mistake on my part.

Fan of class: Wow: you have some great credentials. I will concede that I shouldn't have said I had forgotten more about racing than you will ever know. I was defending myself and was quick with the keyboard as I felt you were also putting me in with the likes of peta or something. Calling me an animal lover who knows nothing about racing=peta.

With that said: I may not have the family history as my parents were not in the horse business, I have ridden and competed most of my life. Currently own 12 horses which include two retired race horses. One of which is a great greandson to the great War Admiral. The rest are active rodeo horses or rodeo horses in training. I shouldn't have claimed to know so much but at the same time feel I know my fair share. I have studied and followed the sport since I can remember. I am a observer and avid race fan. As far as my knowledge of horses feel although I don't know everything, I know my fair share and can bring my opinion to the table and feel it is educated and not just thrown off the top of my head.  If I feel I have a valid point, I can respectfully disagree with others as I did with Draynay. You seem to be the only one who has a problem with it. Draynay and I could disagree respectfully and not take anything personal. I have also never stated that I am against betting. I agree it is imperative for the sport to survive. I just don't happen to bet. I do however have many people who call me for my opinion. I give it to them and have been right more than once. Obviously I have been wrong as well. Also keep in mind, sometimes those who aren't on the frontline have a different "outside" look at things. A non biased approach if you will. Don't count people out just because they are not trainers or assistant trainers, or because their family hasn't raised race horses for 80 years, or because no one in their family are currently professional riders (define professional)or in the medical field. You don't have to be a football player or have a brother who is a quarter back to understand football.

Karen 08 Jun 2008 7:37 PM

I did not badmouth you for not betting. I said I don't do it much myself but think people need to realize that point of view as well.

I said you were an animal lover,I believe you are. I am too. In fact I went out yesterday to feed the horses and told one of the fillies she could of outrun BB and she took off running around her paddock hell bent for leather. Whether she understood me or not who knows. I took exception to your remarks when you began proclaiming people's ignorance and defending draynay who insulted a multitude of people on this board. If there aren't two Karen's posting here, I'm getting confused because on this board you said in your post at 11:48 June 7 praise KD for pulling up the horse then lambasted him for pulling up the horse and calling for his suspension on the aftermath of the Belmont blog. If there is more than one Karen, then forgive me, my mistake. However, your comment about 'true fans' was a little pompous since you don't know any of these bloggers background, thus the comment I made. As far as your question about professional riders. My sister was an exercise rider who broke all of our race horses, got too big and is now a WPRA barrel racer, her husband is a PRCA calf roper. I used to ride in gymkhanas, but preferred the race track. I've known a lot of horsemen over the years including Lukas, VanBerg, Jolley, and even knew Todd Pletcher when he was little and his dad JJ (as we all called him)trained. Also knew Bubba Cascio trainer before Wayne of Dash for Cash. I've listened to all they've said over the years including Walter Merrick and Bill Locklear two of the greatest there ever were.

fanofclass 08 Jun 2008 8:40 PM

Fanofclass: no, I don't believe there are two Karen's posting. I did praise Kent for pulling up BB. When I posted that I had not heard that there was no injury to BB. I thought Kent pulled him up because he thought something was wrong. Then the more I watched the replay I was highly discouraged by what I saw at the beginning of the race and by how the race unfolded. My thoughts and opinions have changed drastically since yesterday as I have been able to re watch the race and listen to Kent. This race just doesn't add up to me. Just to clarify, I did not specifically come out and call someone ignorant. I specifically stated a comment was ignorant. And, I still stand by that. There were bloggers posting and boasting about BB being the only tc contender coming in dead last. That is an ignorant comment. He came in dead last due to a jockey that decided the race was over and eased him up. Had BB been allowed to continue running and came in dead last then that would be valid, but that's not what happened. Its hard to hold the horse responsible for coming in dead last when it was the jockeys fault. Agree?

There is no doubt I am an animal lover and defensive over BB. He has been exciting to watch this year and has shown exceptional talent and explosive turn of foot in the Preakness. It was thrilling. He deserves to be recognized for what he has accomplished. What I see are a bunch of people who claim BB sucks because he lost the Belmont. Smarty didn't suck, Funnycide didn't suck....Thats all I am about. Giving credit where credit is due.

As far as the steroids go, your in the medical field. He tested clean the day of the derby. He hasn't had a shot once since April. It's hard for me to believe the meds were still running with BB and training with him right up until the Belmont and then mysteriously caused him to peter out. Agree?

Karen 08 Jun 2008 9:16 PM

Hey Draynay,  the plug you said was far better than the great Secretariat finished last.  Remember the nasty remarks you made about Sham.  Well,  now your Big Brownie has something in common with Sham,  A LAST PLACE FINISH IN THE BELMONT STAKES.  Hey Draynay,  got anything else to say about Secretariat.  Remember I told you that Big Brown will never do anything the almighty Secretariat did,  well,  I was right and YOU WERE WRONG. Ha Ha, so now you can shut your fat trap.  Big Brown will never be as good as Big Red.  Sounds like you are jealous that no horse will ever duplicate Big Reds triple crown run as well as his brilliant 2 year old season in which he won Horse of the Year.  The only 2 year old to ever do that.  Big Red faced older horses many times, yes he lost some,  but he won when it counted and Big Brown was a BIG DUD when it counted. All the great ones in history have lost now and then.  Draynay,  you know nothing and I'm glad you post here so I have something to laugh about each day.  Maybe they'll run Big Brown in a claiming race some day and you can claim him for your riding stable. Oh,  by the way,  Wait 'til Curlin Smokes him later this year, that is if the Big Dud is still able to run.  

FormerFan 09 Jun 2008 1:22 PM

Anyone want to comment on the media reports that KD panicked and that was the reason for BB's loss?

Personally, I think it just wasn't the horses day, no shame in that. I do think that BB's loss detracted from the attention that should have been focused on the winner.

BTW there will never be another Secretariat...what a horse he was.

Appysrule 09 Jun 2008 8:23 PM

Wow Former Fan: you are freakin out. I have been reading your posts to Draynay and it would appear to me you need some help buddy. You shouldn't let the comments on these boards get you so worked up. Taking out all your frustration on an innocent horse. I think it is safe to say that BB will never run in a claiming race. He is worth millions of dollars regardless of your opinion. C'mon Former fan, lighten up. These blogs are suppose to be enjoyable and fun. Not filled with hate and anger.

Karen 09 Jun 2008 8:52 PM

The notion that Ken Desormeaux someone how contributed to BB's loss is the most ludicrous statement I've heard since -- well, at least since Draynay all but insisted that it was God's Eleventh Commandment that BB HAD to win the Belmont and that anyone who disagreed with that assertion was an ignoramous, a heathen and a philistine, to boot. Does anyone know how laughable the Desormeaux-caused-the-horse-to-lose theory sounds in retrospect? Get this straight: BB could have had Arcaro, Hartack, Bailey . . . or Charlton Heston re-duplicating his equine prowess in the chariot race from the movie "Ben Hur" on his back . . . AND IT WOULDN'T HAVE MATTERED ONE IOTA! Do you know why that's so? Well, the reason is . . . THE HORSE JUST DIDN'T HAVE IT AND COULDN'T BE CARRIED ACROSS THE FINISH LINE ON DESORMEAUX'S BACK! Yes, Ken D. may have moved too soon a decade ago aboard Real Quiet when Victory Gallop nipped him at the wire, but to fault him for his ride on Big Brown is silly. On a second front, I must say it's funny  to see how muted Draynay is on his posts now. He sounds almost touchy-feely and full of bonhomie, ready to sing "Kumbaya" around the camp fire, doesn't he? Yep, he's taking a sort of "Hey, what can you do? He just didn't want to run that particular day. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again." Nice try, Draynay, but you're engaging in a bit of  revisionist history, here, it seems to me, in that you're not owning up to your original comments in which you not only insisted that Big Brown was one of the greatest horses that ever lived, but maintained that anyone who didn't agree with you was a blithering moron who ought to felt blessed to have had an opportunity to witness the genius of your insight. Seems to me, that your fatalistic attitude is almost a bit of "past posting" after the results are already in . . . Sure, now you're adopting this "hey, sometimes horses just don't run and I've been wrong before" posture . . . but the fact is, you flamed everyone who didn't see this horse as the second-coming or necessarily think the horse couldn't be beat.

Well, let's leave aside, for the moment, your peverse need to have not only gotten your point across, but to nastily denigrate those that didn't agree with you. What you CAN'T avoid is that you're certitude that BB was a great horse is totally and absolutely without any basis in fact. He's not a "great" horse, because a "great" horse is at least COMPTETIVE, even on their bad days, particularly when they are running against a field that COMBINED to win a total of FIVE prior graded stakes races (that's ALL graded stakes, not just G-1 races) in their entire lives. But he performed in much the same way that Mark McGuire hit home runs after he stopped taking steroids, didn't he? A final thought: the final time of 2:29 and change is more than five seconds slower -- or roughly 25 lengths -- than the 2:24 recorded by Secretariat. Just know this: This horse will NEVER be thought of as anything resembling a GREAT horse, or one for the ages, for at least three major reasons: (1) He came up small when all the chips were on the line; (2) He's never beaten older horses, but only a bunch of rag-a-muffin, mediocre lot; (3) He never car