You didn't miss to many Jason but there's a couple running at Gulfstream Thursday that should be watched. If I understand right the race split so there could be a few more to add to the list. I'll pass on any comment until they run.

Thanks for all of the info!  The next few months will be interesting as the their talents come to light.   Maybe your next writing could be on the remainder of 3 year olds.  I'm hoping for a brighter racing year.

None of the horses you have cited will hit the board in the derby.

Here my watch list - Coronet Of A Baron,City Style, Tranquil Manner, Checklist, Sunday Blitz, Gresham, Map Of The World, Quality Road, Majormotionpicture, Elusive Bluff, Stimulus Plan

One thing I have learned over the years is not to get excited about any horse in January.  However, I am going to step way out on the ledge and suggest that the running for the roses may be over already. Now we all know a lot can happen but.... if Vineyard Haven improves and stays healthy this one may be over already.  With 2 impressive G1 wins already and maturity beyond his age VH has to be considered the one to beat. I know its early but until someone figures a way to beat him I am hitching my wagon to his train.  Friesan Fire has had enough chances I will pass on him and Square Eddie is very nice but can he handle dirt?  Indygo Mountain will win with ease this weekend I think the trainer is slow playing this horse to dampen expectations and I can't wait to see notonthesamepage stretch out.  Remember the next time you see VH he will be 6 months older than his last victory any move forward makes him tough to beat.

Terrain, Well Positioned & Cribnote. Of those, I like Cribnote the most. He has a funny gait, but it seems to work for him.

Beethoven, Hello Broadway (a 1/2 brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz), and Nuclear Wayne could be ones to watch.  

Jason, how about a mention for Carla Gaines' Point Encounter-- not a believer yet?  It looks like there could be more than one Unbridleds Song colt in this years derby... not sure if that's such a good thing (but as of now I am rooting for Old Fashioned).  Are you not that impressed with Pompa's Well Positioned?  We might also need to look out for Gotmymojoworkin, Baffert's Wall Street Wonder, and who knows if Charitable Man can make a successful return.  And, people have been talking a lot about Rockland.  

I give M. Palmer credit for going out on a limb with the bold prediction.  A year ago at this time, I was touting War Pass and Pyro and...well, we saw how that worked out.

Watch out for Merus Miami based in Northern California. He's 2 for 2 with a serious closing kick!

I like three- Old Fashioned, Square Eddie, and Stardom Bound. That having been said, I want to see how Square Eddie and Stardom Bound take to the dirt, and I want to see how all of them progress as 3 year old's before I make my pick.

And this is only January... Anything could happen by May. Maybe the Derby winner hasn't made his first start yet, who knows. Only time will tell!

Somebody's got a crystal ball...lol.

i think you did pretty good. I havn't even picked who's even on my list, lol. i usually wait to see later in the spring...gives them plenty of time to mature even more and see who's going to take the 10.

I'm glad you put Stardom Bound up there!! she deserves it. even though she is IEAH and under Dutrow *shivers*. but, under the care of Frankel as of right now, she may be able to bring her 'round the turn kick'. she reminds me of eight belles in a way.

BTW, do you know if IEAH is going to keep SMith aboard? i havn't heard much on if he's going to still be ZJ's pilot.

Headache was off slow, made a bit of a move and then flattened out to finish 10th. I didn't see anything in this one (Gulfstream Jan 7, race 9) that looked like a Derby horse. But, I've been wrong before. Anyone see it differently?

Jason, how come you aren't watching for Nicanor (Barbaro's full brother) to hit the track?  

if you liked Pioneerof the Nile's race as much as you say, (which I agree), look for the 2nd - 4th place finishers to have a say in the upcoming preps along with the Derby!  They are Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge and Bittel Road!!

Do my eyes decieve me???? Another racing fan who lives in ND???? Carolyn, what part of the Dakotas are you in?

 Didn't Coronet of a Baron run in The Breeders Cup Grey Goose turf race? Maybe he's not a grass horse after all. Looking forward to the Road to The Derby. There's lots of talent out there waiting to be discovered.

...forgot to mention the two Candy Rides:  Chocolate Candy, and Capt. Candyman Can.  This is the fun time of year!

The "buzz" out west is POINT ENCOUNTER.  He's trained by Carla Gaines and broke straight maiden first time out.  After a 95 Beyer look for him to go longer in the San Felipe or San Rafael probably as the morning line.    

Hardly any West Coast horses on here. How about the highly touted Point Encounter from the Carla Gaines barn? 1:14 n change to break his maiden. Son of Point Given.

m palmer: None of your horses will be entered into the derby. lol. jk.

what about nicanor? barbaro's brother

Although every derby year starts with new faces on the trail. We should not forget the horses that have done real running in '08. Nothing is better than a tested horse with just the right amount of starts as a two year old. I have good info. on a horse named Beethoven in Florida. We will all enjoy how this will shake out in the end.

So far as I can see, no one's mentioned Rocketing Returns (the freak that won up in NY & down at Calder). He's as good lookin' a horse as I've seen in a while (he's got that Rock Hard Ten presence) and he's definitely a real runner.

Another to watch: Heracles. Second by a long whisker to Rocketing Returns and is currently on WinterBreak ... but he should be back in time to make the trail. He's incredibly talented and (if not the Derby) watch for him later in the year (think crushing the Saratoga stakes).

Sunday Blitz should turn out to be a Derby contender. Forty Thieves is probably a miler but might be on the trail too.

And, in a moment of unfettered bias, given that I work for her owner:

Sky Diva, anyone...?!? Let her have her break and get Stardom Bound off the Poly - then we've got a horse race!!!

Don't forget about Nicanor!

Thanks for your list.

Many more to consider, a lot to wade through for an initial Futures bet.

i also like giant oak who ran a close second in the ky jockey club. but old fashioned is at the top of my list with notonthesamepage. ive liked those horses since the begining of their carreers.

I just have 2 words for now: THE PAMPLEMOUSSE !!

VH has back to back G1 wins by daylight and no one even mentions him... unreal.

Agree that you hit most of the major players.  However I was more impressed with I Want Revenge in the CashCall Futurity.  I expect major improvement from this horse next time out.

3 more to add....Quality Road, Charitable Man, Breakwater Edison !!!!!

I think I'd drop Haynsfield for Point Encounter just because that breeding doesn't scream go long.

DANGER TO SOCIETY 1ST STEP TO THE DERBY IS 2MORROW

Jason I took note that you neither ranked the 15 nor said that these were top of your list so I wont take issue with you for leaving out Breakwater Edison, Jose Adan and Hello Broadway.  

If it turns out that Notonthesamepage shows some stamina when he next competes in the Fountain of Youth, the bar would have been raised significantly for all Derby aspirants.  This colt has class written all over him and could soon scare off a number of moderate Derby hopefuls.  In fact the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes at the end of January might also be "dramatic" enough to give a few others a reality check.

I have a hunch that the cream of this crop will rise to the top by the end of March and that we may not have a whole lot of pretenders crowding the Derby field this year.  Also this may be Godolphins best year in the triple crown so far as they are loaded with quality (assuming that Vineyard Haven, Midshipman, Jose Adan, Desert Party and Coronet Of A Baron train-on as 3YOs.  I see no reason why Sheikh Mohammad's idea of preparing them in Dubai should not work out.  In previous years they did not have the quality horses to really be competitive.

I also noted your response to Rechelle about Nicanor and would be thrilled to see you proven wrong on this one.  While it is highly unlikely that the Derby winner has not yet raced and that a sibbling will reproduce the extraordinary talent of his full brother I dont think that the wish of all Barbaro's fans should be frowned upon.  After all racing is a game of chance and most people enjoy a long shot.  If Nicanor turns out to be a worthy Derby contender that would be an awesome long shot, not to mention winning the Derby.

This ia a great blog Jason.  The dialogue is interesting.  

HELLO JASON:

I AGREE W/MANY OF YOUR SELECTIONS. QUESTION,WHAT ABOUT MAJOR MOTION PICTURE,WHAT DO YOU THINK OF HIM?

TO M PALMER:

WISH YOU WOULD TELL WHERE YOU PURCHASED YOUR CRYSTAL BALL,SINCE OBVIOUSLY YOU THINK YOUR KNOWLEDGE TRUMPS JASON'S. HERE IS A WORD TO THE WISE,YOU ARE WAY OFF,PERIOD!!

VH AND MIDSHIPMAN LOST ALL CHANCE WHEN THEY WERE SOLD AND TAKEN OVERSEAS

Is Desert Party is Dubai as well, or is he based over here still?  The decision on where Old Fashioned runs his next race will make the difference between seeing him run before/after the first Derby Future Wager...

sounds like a talented group, my votes go with notonthesamepage, old fashioned, beethoven, and square eddie.

I am excited about Capt. Candyman Can and Big Drama. Looks like an awesome road to the Derby. Doesn't Larry Jones have a potential starter now?

Yeah Point Encounter's buzzing so loudly we can hear him on the East Coast.

I agree about Stardom Bound.  I hope she makes it to the Derby.  Dunno what it is but I find Square Eddie enjoyable--the name not so much, the horse, yup.

I wonder if we're gonna see Nicanor run in the Preakness or, dare I say, the Barbaro?  Wouldn't that be a little mind blowing?

No one seems to have mentioned

Elusive Bluff - His first 2 races were great but he scratched out of the Breeders Cup and hasn't run since

Taking Midshipman from Baffert will turn out to be a huge error.  I like Rockland also--but a former champ with a winner in his first crop--tough one.

WELL POSITIONED broke his maiden by 16 at saratoga cant wait to see how he steps up at Gulfstream..

If it was confirmed that Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Donativum and runner up Westphalia would be in the derby, they would be high on the derby list. Well it appears no one saw City Style's move from 12L second to last to be beaten by 21/1L in 1:34 and change. I suggest every poster review the video of this race. In his previous race in the Sunday Silence Stakes he closed from 12 lengths last to win. The guys from Dubai requested his presence for the wintering and that should be an indicator. If Old Fashioned was impressive against nobody, City Style was more impressive in his loss against two seasoned top class turf 3YOs from Europe.

Vineyard Haven was so impressive, but since he's in Dubai, with his primary target being the UAE Derby, I have pretty much crossed him off. Coming from Dubai to the U.S. just seems to take the starch out of horses. Has any winner of the UAE Derby even run in the KY Derby, let alone won it? Hello Broadway seemed to finally put it together in the last few strides of the Nashua; hope he can keep it going. Old Fashioned is my favorite at the moment.

I also would add Checklist. What do you think of his chances of stretching out being by Gone West?  I also like Idol Maker and my pick so far is Old Fashioned

I have hopes on Rockland coming through, and I also like Nicanor. He could surprise everyone and come out on top.  If I remember correctly Curlin didn't start until 3, and he was in the derby.  He didn't win, but he came in third which I say is pretty good considering who he was running with.  I would love to see a triple crown, but as long as the horse comes out healthy that is all that matters.

i picked giacomo,early spring plodders run good on the first saturday in may,watch for square eddie

Merus Miami..Watch the replay of the Gold Rush and you will agree with me.

Dray..maybe people aren't mentioning VH because 1: umm,he's in Dubai and more than likely he won't return to the States any time soon.And even if he did,we ALL know(except you,obviously)that Dubai based horses have NO chance in the Derby(check their history).

2: Although his 2 Gr.I wins were impressive,they were 1 turn races,and his bottom-side is nothing but Sprinters.A heckuva' Miler at best...look elsewhere!

People,STOP with the Nicanor thing.He hasn't even made his debut yet..unless he's another Curlin(I doubt it)...look elsewhere!

Now,here's who I'm keeping my eye on,as of now.

Stardom Bound: is at the top of my list for obvious reasons.I just think she's something special and feel she can hang with the Big Boys.Watch for her to improve her form and Destroy all the filly competition thrown at her.Frankel as her West Coast handler isn't all that bad either...Checklist: check-out his maiden win people,very nice race,but we'll see how he fares when stretched-out.He has a right to be very special,his momma' was top-class and could run all day...Tranquill Manner: really liked his maiden win last out against highly regarded foes and it was a 2 turn route race,should only improve from now on.

Jason,don't sleep on the latter 2..lol, I think someone else mentioned them earlier too...I'm also following Au Moon,who's on your list.

OH!Man!  It's that time again!....but all in all,it's still a bit early to pinpoint my Derby Pick...later folks.

What about Cribnote? We havent heard much from him but I bet he has matured!

I still think if the 2yo BC jinx can be broke so can the not started at 2 jinx.   Point Encounter was impressive in his maiden, their was also a horse on HRTV's Jeff Seigles list that missed the break and still won (I think by Giants Causeway wish I could remember the name)  That is one of the most impressive starters I've seen yet.

I also like Old Fashion and Square Eddie if he can transfer to the dirt.

My favorite colt right now is Old Fashioned with Vineyard Haven as my second choice regardless of the fact that he is in Dubai.  Stardom Bound is definitely my Oaks choice and if they decide to go for the Derby she will be high on my list if she shows she can run on dirt.

the derby winner runs  at gulfstream

Old-Fashioned at the top of my list. Also like Giant Oak, who ran a strong second after racing wide all the way around the track in the Jockey Club. Under the radar so far. Impressive on the backside @ FG.

Keep your eye on Fiddlers Afleet. He ran 2nd to Haynesfield in the Damon Runyon but had a 4-5 wide trip the entire way and lost by 5 lengths. He was sold privatley and is now at Santa Anita preparing for the San Rafeal in the barn of John O'Hara a former Van Berg Assistant who assisted with the Alysheba campaign.

If Charitable Man can come back, I think he's got it all.  He's a Lemondrop Kid with rare precocity and speed.  He should be better later and longer.

Love Indygo Mountain.  Only horse to beat him is the talented Kopitar.  Kopitar came back to crush on Churchill lawn.  Has run on synth and turf, but has the running style of a dirt horse.  Kopitar was supposed to run in the Hollywood Futurity.  Look for him to show up at Calder next.  He's a freight train.

KY DERBY...watch the contender make run for the T/Crown, chances are Midshipman has a shot a former Baffert trainee but still capable. Old Fashioned is an interesting one, won't be surprise if turn out to be a big long shot. Pioneer of the Nile maybe.. as for Nicanor is a watch and see approach.. have fun racing fan...

Well, with all the problems with these synthetic surfaces the racetracks everywhere have been having lately, hopefully we can get back into the old fashion ways of handicapping the derby preps, on a natural dirt surface!!! It's just a matter of time people! The country jumped the gun on these rubber surfaces. Just put the Oaklawn surface material in every track with a synthetic surface. It's the safest dirt course out there. Oh, and the derby winner for now...., geez, flip a coin. And throw out Nicanor. lol. Actually, MJR has made a good point with Rocketing Returns, although I would like to see some video of his races. Point Encounter looked super in his maiden win. A Point Given horse showing that much speed and finishing 6 1/2 in 1:14 n change, that was pretty impressive. Can't wait for some nx1 allowance races to fill on the west coast so this horse can run again!

Rockland -  and maybe one of the other fantastic Smarty 1st crop.

look out for IDOL MAKER

Gallant Son ran 7th in the BC Juvenile while suffering through a terrible ride. They're getting him ready in Cal. might be the suprise package!

I'll give you a real sleeper to watch out for that hasn't even started yet.  Keep an eye out for Rayemorrison.  He's been working absolutely lights out at Hollywood and should see his first race before the end of January.  Nicely bred son of Smart Strike out of a Seattle Slew mare.  His workouts are phenominal and he could be hitting the headlines soon.....

Slew.em.All I am well aware of the Derby record for Horses from Dubai but that has nothing to do with this year. Healthy horses with the most talent win the Derby and so far I have yet to see a horse with the talent displayed by VH back in September and October.  Its kind of hard to get excited by a horse like Au Moon when he runs the mile in a minute 40.

JSHandler: Didn't Big Brown begin racing at 3 and won the Derby? If he can, so can another. Sentimentally, I want Nicanor to win, but will have to wait and see. I agree with most--January is too soon to get excited about a horse. I do like Stardom Bound and I Want Revenge, but I don't trust the results if races have been run exclusively on synthetics.

I like OLD FASHIONED a lot. Are there any fillies who might be included for this year??? I love to see the fillies run.  As for NICANOR, I too am watching him with great interest, affection, and best wishes.

How about Rockland and Beethoven?  

Here we go again. Throw all the names in a hat and pull one out. Ya might get the winner there. Way too early of course but ya gotta love this time of the year. With the way horses are bred and trained today I wouldn't however put too much stock on the history of how things play out. In the past couple of years we've seen how betting on that history hasn't worked out. For whatever reason you may believe things have changed. Maybe the lack of distance breeding that led to weak competition for instance and allowed for a winner from the 20 hole last year, or two years back where the winner clearly loved the track and it just happened to be where he won the Juvenile the year before. One of these years the Sheik (or shall we rename him Steinbrenner?)will come up with a Derby winner and history will be changed again, he's loaded this year for sure. Let the games begin.

All of these horses are very capable but there's one particular horse that wasn't mentioned who I think has a real good chance, Point Encounter.

I saw his race at SA and he was very impressive. If he can get a little more experience and maturity and stay healthy he will be a force to be reckon with.

I know a good horse when I see one and Point Encounter is just that.

How about Munnings? Also, after seeing him run at Aqueduct, Old Fashioned has got to be my fave right now!

I'm suprised that no one has mentioned Donativum. His win in the Breeder's Cup was convincing enough for me to keep an eye on him. John Gosden said at the time of the Breeder's Cup that the Triple Crown might be something for this gelding to pursue, since his options in Europe wont be as good. I really hope that Princess Haya will go for it!

Other than Donativum, Old Fashioned and Stardom Bound are two very talented 3 year-old's that I can see having great success if they stay healthy. I'm hoping that Michael Metz has lined something up for Nicanor to see what he's made of. His debut will be the most awaited, and the most scrutinized.    

You missed Breakwater Edison who ran the faster Nashua in 30 years having broken a mile in under 1:36.  The last to do so was Quadrangle in the early 1970's.  His Ragozin Sheet Number of 2 is the fastest of any two-year old last year.  And he's bred by Lemon Drop Kid and should relish two-turns when he stretches out.  He is definitely on the radar.

Three you didn't mention that I will be watching:

Scooby Dubai

Be Smart

Atomic Rain

Terrain

Capt. Candyman Can

Chocolate Candy

Friesian Fire

Stardom Bound

Watch out for Kenny McPeek's Fitzaslew...broke his maiden in June at Churchill, was unplaced in the River Downs Cradle in September, and has been working steadily for his return ever since.

Jason, how can you say Nicanor got started too late when Curlin had his first race 2 months before the KD? It is still a possibility that Nicanor could make it there, even if it is a remote one.  

Nicanor,Matz and Prado possibly an unbeatable combination and it is good to be the underdog it makes winning that much sweeter.Then in 2010 we get Lentenor how good is that!

I say Square Eddie will make it to the winners circle in May. What a horse!!

I'd like to add Beethoven to the list.  He is a Sky Mesa colt trained by John Ward and owned by the Oxleys.  They've already won the derby with Monarchos.  It's a longshot to win one derby in a lifetime let alone two. But I still like him.  I also like Strategic Decision a Distorted Humor colt. He is out of the great mare Beautiful Pleasure.  Although he ran 3rd in his debut December 12th at Turfway he showed some talent. He is a stablemate to Beethoven and we all know John Ward knows his horses.  It will be fun to watch !

Does anyone know anything about Oconee Gold?  Larry Jones was touting him as his Derby horse back in August after an impressive 2 turn win

I will be rooting for Hornung - a Speightstown colt (out of a Silver Charm mare).  He won his maiden by 8 at GG last out.  The Speightstowns are impressive so far - and I think with Silver Charm on the bottom this colt could get 10f+ no problem.

I try not to get too excited by the hot 2yo horses - as they have been disappointing that first Sat. in May (with the glaring exception of Street Sense).

I was very impressed with Point Encounter when he broke his maiden in his first start.  However, there was another firster in that race who impressed me equally: Unionize, who came from behind and kept eating away at PE's lead to finish second.

Everyone seems to forget the other Lael horse in the 2006 derby, Showing UP, ran 6th.  First race was mid-February '06, where he broke maiden.  However, Jason is right on- if Nicanor's maiden race is not a huge or at least impressive win, there is no realistic chance for enough graded stakes earnings, or even to get a graded start to qualify.  Nicanor  conversation is better had in 2 weeks or so.

Bargainblueblood: I love Fitzaslew, I was able to meet him at Magdalana and he is a sweet horse and watching him race is a blast.

FREE COUNTRY today at Gulfstream from wayyyyyyyyyy back

Jason, As many have mentioned its way to early, but have to admire your spunk. But since we're playing crystal ball in January, one that no one has mentioned yet is up at Payson and is very highly regarded for Shug McGaughey - Imperial Council. From the west coast - Majormotionpicture is reported to be a monster.

As far as those I've seen to date, other than maiden starts, Old Fashioned would have to get my nod he has all the ear marking of a Seattle Slew type - tractible speed and stamina. Look forward to your updates as we progress along the Derby road.

I have to agree with you regarding Nicanor.  Like everyone I am rooting for him, but until he hits the track, he really can't be considered part of the Derby conversation.

Mr. Rod

Take it to the Bank

I've tossed Haynesfield after his last - (3) reasons - Breeding, Foal Date(5/12) and He was running on a Free-Reign up the backstretch in his last. I'm not a big BEYERS guy, but the 88 he earned is about right for him. I can't see much improvement moving forward.

Dutrow may be flying under the radar with a horse named ZOOGER. He ran sneeky good race to break his maiden @ Philly earlier this week.

    I like most of your list Jason.  Yes, it's early, but it's still fun to start talking Triple Crown.  I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm somewhat agreeing with Dray on Vineyard Haven.  When he left off last year, he was on top of the 2 yo crop.  He just kept getting better.  I'm not big on his sire Lido Palace although he was a pretty good horse on the track and many have already stated the whole Dubai hangup, but we have seen many myths of KD handicapping proven wrong over the last couple of years.  It had been a long time since a gelding won the KD until 2004 when Funny Cide did it.  Giacomo was nothing more than a maiden winner and had never run a 100 Beyer speed figure which many use as a handicapping tool for the 3 year olds.  No BC Juvenile winner had ever won the KD until Street Sense in 2007 and no horse in about a century had won the KD with as few starts as Big Brown had.  Maybe it's time to debunk the whole Dubai myth.

    Anyway, a few for me who were not listed by Jason are Believe in Hope, who ran a good 3rd in the Norfolk.  I think he will improve big time this spring and could become a serious contender and Andiron who is a 1/2 brother to Cliff's Edge.  Frankel is real high on this horse.  I don't know who mentioned Breakwater Edison, but that was a good one as well.  I'm sure there are many on everyone's watch list, but we'll be able to sort it down to just a handful soon enough.  

I forgot to mention Dream Empress...just in case

A few that I really like who I haven't seen mentioned are BREAK WATER EDISON and GRESHAM, along with SILVER CITY.

I hate to burst everyone's bubble, but it is January 8 and Nicanor has not even made his first start.

I have high hopes for him, just like everyone, but he is not Barbaro.

I'm glad Michael Matz is going slow with him and giving him time to mature, but it is unlikely he will be ready to run in or have sufficient earnings to get into the Derby on May 2nd.

If he turns out to be a good racehorse, like his big brother was, he will be a threat for the maybe the Preakness or Belmont or the Travers.

What is the status on Charitable Man's recovery and is there any word on when he is coming back to the track? Thanks.

I am coming to this party a little bit late as I spent the day at the track yesterday enjoying the Portland Meadows vs. Golden Gate Jockey challenge. I was excited to think I was adding a new name and then there he was 94 posts in... Believe in Hope. I also really like Stardom Bound, I always root for a good filly to beat the boys, and I have high hopes for Friesan Fire. Good luck to Nicanor, I am eagerly awaiting his debut but have little hope that he'll make the Derby. And it's true that the times they are a changin' so don't be suprised if a colt from Dubai finally gets it done. Also aspradling mentioned Be Smart who I have also been following and like quite a bit but not neccessarily for the Derby.

I love this blog and I love all the posters. You guys are awesome! This is what it is all about and I look foward to 2009. Sooooo many horses to watch I don't know where to begin but I will be sure to keep up with the knowledge I find on these blogs!  Excitement, Excitement, Excitement!!!!

To find a good choice for the Derby just look to the Florida Derby again this year.  Lately it seems the winner will come from this race.  One way to limit your horses is to just ignore the west coast.  Until they prove they can bring winners this day and age just stay on the east side of the Mississippi. Is Dubai considered East ....hmmm.....

Jason, I'm not saying Nicanor will win the Derby I'm just wondering why you dismissed him when he's supposed to make his first start at the end of January.  He could still run the Derby if he shows any of the brilliance his brother had.

Am I mistaken in thinking that the entries into the KD are picked by earnings as a 3 year old with nothing to do with earnings as a 2 yr old?  

Bud Long Short = West Side Bernie.  13 post and a not so great trip in the BC Juv and was staying after it late.  I would like to see him take the Oaklawn route to the Derby just like Smarty, Alex & . . . Curlin.  Why is the AK Derby not a G1?  Good luck to all of them and I hope they all stay healthy!!!

West Side Bernie, the 2 Candy Ride boys (esp. ChocCandy)...

Hey, Nicanor fans, (and who isn't at least rooting for him, I mean Nicanor's kind of like Peyton Mannings little brother...and look what he did) maybe Nicanor isn't Barbaro with 2 year old seasoning...maybe he'll be like a big red horse we know, who was third in the Derby in only his 4th start, all as a 3 year old, who went on to equal the Preakness record in his 5th lifetime start, then won Breeders cup...Dubai...etc, LOL!

YOU MISSED WEST SIDE BERNIE. HE HAD POST 13 IN THE BREEDERS CUP, WAS CAUGHT 5 WIDE FOR NEARLY 3/4 FIRED HOME AND ONLU LOST BY 3!!

DELTA DOWNS WAS TO FAR UP EARLY/ FINISHED 2ND.

WATCH FOR HIM THIS MONTH!!

Big Drama...now he's a great story.

Call me Crazy, but IT will be a Nicanor , Rockland, Point Encounter Trifecta at the Derby, Everyone can Thank Me on May 3rd.

Not a flashy performance by Free Country, but definitely game. Going two turns off of just one 6 furlong race, and then dueling to the wire with a Graded-stakes-placed performer. Rated kindly and went up in the hole when Kent asked him to. Very nice seasonal debut.

Greg J, You're crazy.

Jason, not trying to get into a debate, I learned something new from you.  I had thought it was just the earnings they had as a 3yo, I didn't realize the 2yo earnings counted as well.

Old Fashioned was thrilling to watch and Stardom Bound just takes my breath away she is so beautiful and exciting.  I also follow any horse with Larry Jones and Michael Matz.  And I'd love to see a little Smarty Jones as a favorite.  I heard somewhere about a 2 year old named Bullheaded - Holy Bull but I haven't seen him.  I'll back every Holy Bull baby out there.  Love that horse!!

I like Rockland. I'm anxious to see the Smarty colts rock the house. Like me,you and her.

just found out unofficially Point Encounter bowed a tendon.

Well, dang, Steve. Nothing like coming to spoil the party! ;)

Even with a start in late January, can Nicanor be ready for a hard Triple Crown campaign?

This takes a horse with seasoning and experience.  

Unless Michael Matz has been sitting on a powder keg and has kept it very quiet, I don't think he will be ready. His workouts  have been respectable, but not really outstanding or eye popping.

Let him be the baby he is for a while longer. No one is putting him down. He is just a beautiful colt, and by all accounts, he is a very kind horse and easy to work with, even more so than Barbaro.

Hey, so what if he doesn't race in the Triple Crown?  That makes it more likely he will be around to race as an older horse. God knows racing needs more good older horses. Give the old gelding warriors something to compete against!

i liked Elusive bluff in the breeders cup juvenile but not to be, perhaps this year.

Wow, that's a huge blow for his connections. Will they be able to bring him back with proper rest or is it too severe?

Has anyone received any workouts for Believe in Hope?  

It's been very interesting as well as entertaining to read all these comments so far.  At this time of the year, it's early to be letting myself get excited about any of the horses, but so far I have liked what I've seen of Old Fashioned,and I am fond of his connections for a great win.  I'm interested to see how Indygo Mountain and Friesan Fire do this weekend at Fairgrounds.  Free Country was pretty cool looking to win his race today, so who really knows?  I guess I'm basically still undecided, but it is fun to be thinking of the Derby and dreaming right now - lol!  Too bad about Point Enounter, he looked good in his last race.

Cheese N Rice with these fragile horses. The minute they start, they brake!

Danger to Society,Saratoga Sinner and Bear's Prospecter are the ones I'm watching now. The last two are still under the radar but I like the fact that all three have run a route of ground very well.

I like Cribnote, Beethoven, and Notonthesamepage.  Vineyard Haven is a nice horse, too.  Cribnote and Notonthesamepage were my 1-2 picks in the Hopeful.  I hope they all remain sound and have a good year, whoever wins.

Don't knock out the west coast horses so quickly as someone else was eager to do, as for picking a possible Derby winner now at this early stage well I will hang back abit as I haven't really been too overly impressed with anybody yet although at this stage I am watching Pioneerofthenile but things are early. When Curlin started first running at 3 he really caught my eye but waited to see him run alittle more before getting excited about him so I think this is fun to try and pick early but I will wait before truly tossing a definite name out there.

Curlin, Vineyard Haven's sire, Lido Palace, was probably the best horse that got lost in the deluge that was Bobby Frankel's rampage in the early years of this decade.  It's pretty shocking, actually that nobody remembers a horse that won the Woodward TWICE, the Whitney, and the Clark.....finished 2nd in the JCGC & Suburban, and got a 3rd in another rendition of the Whitney,  and all this in addition to being a 4-time Group I winner in his native Chile!  I have to say, with all due respect, that to say that he was a "pretty good horse" is just a bit of an understatement!

Vineyard Haven is a member of Lido Palace's second crop.  A stallion like him is unfortunately not going to be well supported just because the attributes he brings to the table are not commercially viable.  But he managed to sneak in a good one here in Vineyard Haven.  Bobby knew what he was doing when he bought him, and he and Mr. Torre cashed in for a devastating score after the colt won the Hopeful and Champagne so brilliantly.

Vineyard Haven was the only 2yo colt last year that really excited me, and I was profoundly disappointed by his inevitable emigration to Dubai.  Sheikh Mohammed will probably win a Derby at some point doing it "his way", but until he does, any horse that he takes this path with is off the table for me.

It's a darn shame.  I really loved that colt!

I would love to see a "Free Country" type horse win, LOL, a $10,600 purchase puts the dream back into "anyone can win"!

No one is listening but once more I'm telling you Gallant Son who destroyed horses at Emd (better racing than you think) and was victimized by a horrible trip in the BC Juvenile when 7th beaten 3 lengths. nicanor is not going to the derby if he won his first two races by 20 apiece, matz isn't looking to have the biggest black eye in the history of racing!

I understand your feelings because I would rather have VH here than in Dubai.  But TALENT wins races and I think the path to the roses is less important than the Talent you bring.  So far no horse has shown the talent to stay with VH.  I am hopeful that Indygo Mountain moves forward this Saturday and stamps himself a contender.

I am sure the Mo has several pointed at the Derby

Karen2

I live in southern Richland county, west of I-29.  Have you attended any of the races at ND Horse Park?  I have worked there every year since it opened in 2003. I have started a Face Book page.  Not much there yet.

Tomorrow at Fairgrounds my Derby pick is in INDYGO MOUNTAIN  the same owners as the great ALYSHEBA

Dray, the path does matter, depending on the horse. Traveling takes a lot out of any horse, thats why horse coming or coming back form Dubai have such a tough time, because of all the tavel they get tired. Cigar didn't even come back himself and VH is no Cigar.

i like quality road. he is running saturday at gulfstream in nw1 allowance race. he has good looking stride that should suit the derby and he is fast he ran 101 beyer in his debut.

How about Giant Oak - who came closing at Churchill's Jockey Club Stakes on the last day of the Fall Meet?  I would suggest scratching any horse who didn't win at a mile or more as a 2-year old...

I agree with LDP that VH will have to overcome the aura of travel (among other things including 19 other animals)if he's to prevail on the first Saturday in May. It's a huge obstacle to overcome. Contrary to what some believe "TALENT wins races" is not accurate.  You can be the most talented but if you don't show up that day you can lose just as well. Having that talent gives you the potential for victory but by no means does it guaranttee it.

Julie L,

Could you say all that in just two breaths?

Greg J it looks like your trifecta got shot to heck. Just so you remember the Derby is on May 2nd not the 3rd as you suggest. I wouldn't want you to miss getting your bets in, more for me to win.

Too early to go out on a limb but nice to see the talk.

Exacta is Still in order (Nicanor & Rockland), and the wiz, I said everyone could thank me on May 3, THE DAY AFTER the Derby. Maybe a trifecta with Square Eddie or Beethoven...

I have a 15,500 claimer purchase last year that you all will be talking about for years.  Puts Free Country to shame.  Arkansas Fred will be a legend!  Big Drama romps in the Derby..

jason--i heard a rumor today that Point Encounter bowed a tendon but I can't find any info comfirming that--do you know if it is true?? he and old fashioned are my top 2 derby picks right now and my emotional pick just because i like him is west side bernie--i know he prob won't be there but just really like this youngster

updated to say i was in such a hurry to find out if anyone knew anything about Point Encounter being hurt that i did not catch up on the posts--so to jason and all you who mentioned west side bernie thank you! i just love that horse for some reason. and i did forget to say if entered stardom bound will be right there--she is something.

To schabelli - sorry if that was too long or much for you.

I saw a handsome 2-yr old during Arlington Million week last summer.  Dignified (Ap. Indy, out of Ermine(?)) Thought he looked like Derby material.  Anyone know what happened to him?  Dropped off my stable watch.  Thanks.

PLEASE don't tell me the Santa Anita surface swallowed another one! (Point Encounter).

Don't forget about I Want Revenge. He did run very well behind Pioneerofthe Nile. You can't toss him just because of the synthetics.

Nobody is talking about Shafted an Alowance winner at Santa Anita.  Patena won the race he was in prior to that, and I think the Woodbine shippers could be special this year.  Au Moon also has plenty of room to improve and learn to rate.

I. Want. Revenge. I know a Derby winner when I see one, and this guy is gonna get it done. Until I see someone that impresses me more, this is my Derby horse. Several others are on the ol' radar, but so far I Want Revenge is at the top of the list. Others to keep an eye on: Square Eddie, Pioneerof The Nile, Terrain & Beethovan. As usual, should be an interesting road to the Derby...

top ten old fashioned 100/1 kopitar 150/1 giant oak 150/1 charitable man 100/1 break wateredision 90/1 well poistioned 60/1 westside bernie 175/1 silver city 150/1 quality road 150/1 indygo mountain 60/1 I had big brown at 250/1 barbaro 150/1

Hi Jason, I just read the report on Point Encounter so my go to horse is old fasioned who has the cred for Churchill Downs, speed and can quicken from the front end!

Gallant Son runs in Cal. Derby sat. will win easy then maybe one person will at least acknowledge that he might be the real deal!

phillygoat: beating up on Washington and No.Cal. horses is easier than So.Cal or any major track East of the Rockies...until he proves otherwise....he's consistent though.

MERUS MIAMI rember that name !He our future ky derby hopeful winner! He got a run and seems farther the better he gets. O.J.'s comments on DRF sounds very positive to improve and be a top california horse.

ONE TO WATCH - MR. FANTASY - FIRST TIME OUT WINS BY 11 - RAN A 97 BEYER

AND A 6 ON THE SHEETS. RAN A BULLET WORK THIS WEEK. SHOULD RUNS AGAIN NEXT WEEK

@ groomebear,

great call on The Pampelmousse (horrible name for a racehorse) - he is a highly impressive horse, won very easy and could be something special

Hollendorfer's Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride) seems to like to route.  He may be a west coast contender.

Sorry, meant GARYINSALTLAKE not Groomebear ...

Chocolate Candy...his dad held the track record for 1 1/4 at Del Mar (by winning the Pacific Classic) and he has "classic distance" all over his female line.

Chocolate Candy...Candy Ride retired undefeated, holds/held track records and both dirt and turf, and had the highest Beyer figure of 2003 (123).  All systems go.

HouseholderJ:  they shipped Chocolate Candy up north to face weaker opposition,instead of staying here in Sunny SoCal..seems like his connections know he can't hang with the Big Dogs!!

nice pedigree though...

Agree with you Slew.em.All.  Hopefully Chocolate Candy will come south again and beat Pioneer of the Nile.  I will say that Hollendorfer probably was not interested in the San Rafael at a mile when Chocolate Candy was already routing beyond this.

E S S O U M L E P M A P  E H T

That name looks even worse spelled backwards. But he's the REAL DEAL.

This is an interesting blog, great interest shown, no wonder the Derby is such a great race. I am watching for Well Positioned and Tippity Tap to possibly be Derby hopefuls.

keep an eye on wise kid,a fast closing 2nd in his debut at oaklawn.son of lemon drop kid is bred to run all day. distance will not be a problem.

Vineyard Haven has the pedigree and is improving at a good pace, I would bet him now for the Derby, no super horses this year, it's going to be a dog fight of guts and glory, down to the wire, might see a phto for the times this season.

Everyone counted War Emblem out in 2002, the Illinois derby win gave the improving champ all the confidence he needed, I see alot of war Emblem in Vineyard haven, a sports writer gave an article in the washington Post on War Emblem, he wrote, War Emblem could have been a Champion, I gutted his article by telling him, race horses only get oone chance, all other sports stars get several, War Emblem was the guts and glory of racing, he didn't get the press he deserved, I love that horse, bone chips, HA!, watch me flow!!!

What about RUN AWAY AND HIDE he has not LOST A RACE IN HIS LIFE SO FAR?  He looks good and RUN AWAY AND HIDE should be in the Derby. He has been on that track befor.

Matt H...I believe he's been retired..correct me if I'm wrong Jas.

As far as I know RUN AWAY AND HIDE

is still running. I looked on NTRA.COM did I miss it?

did anyone see stardome bound race this weekend i thought she did fanstic she stared out dead last and when she couldnt find a hole she made one that horse proved alot to me this weekend but she still needs to prove me in santa anita derby i need to prase the ownership for putting her in the santa anita i think that she will be really successfull asfor vinyard haven i dont think he will be in the derby due to training in dubi he has a race in a couple weeks in dubi suposedly wich is to bad i think he is talented and they are just waisting it right now if i had to pick a derby winner today hands down it would be stardome bound nobody is talking about hainz field i noticed he has one 4 of his last 5 starts to me thats pretty impressive not as impressive as big brown was last year i also think there is a chance we maynot have an undefeated horse in the derby we will see in the next few weeks if that happens i think there still is hope for horses that have not so good of a start like for instance nicanor the window is slowly closing  

<--- has eight ball!!! as to magic ball "Vineyard Haven" "Midshipman"

"Old Fashioned" "Big Drama" have been more than impessive off 2 year old campaigns... but we haven't seen "Dunkirk" and a host of about 50 others yet!!! "Pioneer of the Nile" showed he can battle in traffic and get his nose to wire... he might make my Derby superfecta play... but there are tons of GREAT bred horses this year!! and there are an easy dozen still in Arabia alone !! is this the year for Bin Surror???!!! I root for Kentucky bred American horses , but they are going to hit us from all over the world this year!!! sleepers Papa Clem, American Dance, and who knows where the likes of "Haynesfield" falls, wait for the 6 major $600,000-$750,000- 1 mil. + prelimbinaries b 4 drawing your final conclusions... next race won but a horse will make Haskins Dozen and you'll all be raving again... but there are 10 weeks and about 135 horses trying to qualify for 20 slots and THEY HAVE TO NOT BREAK a LEG getting there!!!

I look forward to seeing old fastion on monday the race is going to be on espn i know he is undefeated but to be honist i never acually got to see him run.  I don't think vinyard haeven is going to be in the kentucky derby because after the artical i read yesterday it doesn't sound like that is where they are headed i wish it was.  That is what you get when you are stuiped and you run at dubi.  I think if he ran in the kentucky derby i personnally would be faced with some hard choices.  I think the same thing apliys with big chipman i don't think nicanor has a shot.  Because they haven't announced any plains after he was defeated.  I think if they were targeting something we would have something to shut for by now don't get me wrong i like nicanor but i think we should target the preakness or belmont or even the breeders cup.  As for Giant oak i thought he was the biggest disappointment on saturday.  I think he finished second to last if i am not mistaken.  If picking a derby was so easy i think they could run the race right now but it is not that easy and we don't have a crystal ball and any thing could happen.  I wish vinyard haeven the best in dubi i have acually bet on that track before with curlin and i know he is not as great as curlin was but the potential is there.  And i have a question who old do you have to be to do the world cup i think it is four year olds and up.  If that is the case it is to bad because i acually think he could be that good.  Now that i have said that i hope he don't fall on his face on thursday.  In the little stakes race.  The horse i am interested in is in the field.  My second choice would be old fastion.  We will see how he does on monday.  To bad i probly won't get to bet on it.  

Vineyard Haven WAS SO BAD THURSDAY NIGHT IN DUBAI HE GOT FOURTH. I THINK Vineyard Haven CAN RUN BETTER IN THE U.S.  I ALSO THINK HE JUST DID NOT LIKE THE TRACK!

I HATE DUBAI!

My top five DERBY picks right now.

1. STARDOM BOUND

2. Old FASHIONED

3. HAYNESFIELD

4. BIG Drama

5. FRIESAN FIRE

GOOD LUCK TODAY Old FASHIONED AND Silver CITY! GOD SPEED.

i would like to know what happend to belive in hope? can you help me?