Yes !!! Its time to have a little fun and I am going to drop some cash on Vineyard Haven... looks like I am going to put some on Mr. Fantasy but do not feel real good about it.  New York bred ?  Are you kidding...

Right with you Jason on Chocolate Candy.  Love Jenny Craig's homebred.  Been touting this horse to any who will listen.  May be the first El Camino Real Derby winner since the $7,500 dollar purchase Casual Lies (a.k.a. Stanley) to make a dent in the Ky Derby.  He finished a couple off the winner Little E. Tee and 6 places ahead of ARAZI.  Now that's one for the working folks.  Like this horse even better for the Belmont.  It looks like we lost Gomez so he may pick up Baze.  You Tube the CASH CALL (Pioneer of the Nile) and tell me this one is not screaming for another 1/8 mile. Another 1/4 and he beats Pioneer of the Nile. MUST run in the Santa Anita Derby first before shipping to Kentucky.  All systems go!

The two that stand out to me right now are Captain Candyman Can and Patena.  Both were listed @ 40-1 the last I checked.  Patena will move way up with 2nd time dirt and switching to Dutrow.  IEAH and Dutrow may very well strike gold 2 years in a row.  Captain Candyman Can already had two pretty good races over the CD oval and looked good in the Hutcheson.  I'm really looking forward to his next start.

If Hystericallady and Heetseaker mean anything to anyone, then Hollendorfer should as well.  He is usually dismissed when he ships south-CA but not lately. He would not be aiming Candy at the Derby if he did not this he had a chance.

I have too many favourites to have a bet in this years Kentucky Derby!!!!  But agree in really liking Chocolate Candy and as Barclay Tagg is one of my favourite trainers also Hello Broadway!  Larry Jones is another favourite and really like the way his Friesan Fire won last weekend!  He wanted to win!!!

Desert Party is another with a great attitude and he won the UAE Guineas in tremendous style!  I love Stardom Bound too and you cannot  crib at a filly who has won 4 Grade 1's on the bounce can you? Like Rags to Riches she is very classy and determined so could possibly upset the boys!  You never know with horses!  That's what makes racing so special.  The glorious uncertainty!

Anyway whoever wins will be a great horse so Godspeed to them all!  Just hope that we great some truly great horses around this year who like Cigar, Curlin and "Funny" will put racing on the front pages!

God Bless

Best wishes

Abbie

Chocolate Candy is my pick!

The Candy Ride boys, especially Chocolate Candy...still a bit of a baby while running (to me), his pedigree says he'll love the dirt, won't care about mud and the further the better.

The Captain has heart and is learning to relax.

Nobody works sharper than the Pamplemousse, with a couple of sub 47 four bangers.  His 2 wins are at a mile or more, and impressive.  Pedigree seems a little thin, but with the speed in his works, and results going long, I'm in for a shot at 30-1, no????

It won't be Vineyard Haven. He completely spit the bit in his comeback effort. I expect much more from a horse if he is to be considered top notch. Even if he disliked the surface or was returning from a layoff a top notch contender would have shown way more than he did. Remember the great Curlin who was run over a surface he clearly disliked and he ran a sub 2:00 mile and a quarter and nearly beat the best two 3 yr olds in the world last year in the Classic. Now that oozes class.

Dirt or no dirt.  The Santa Anita Derby could feature Stardom Bound, Chocolate Candy, Pioneer of the Nile, the Pamplemousse, and whatever hot 3 year old, 10 length allowance winner, Santa Anita has to offer at the moment. April is going to be a great month! It's raining here so we will be testing the new surface this weekend.

  With so many Derby trials being run on artifical surfaces and the Kentucky Derby still run on the original dirt the best plan is to wait as close as possible to Derby day before making that final decision.

Yes I agree, Steve Haskins has nailed a near another 40 others in 'the field' to keep an eye on of the 133 possibles out of 401 nominations that have to fit into 20 slots come May the 2nd after possibly 4 or 5 leave due to leg injuries and etc., en route! HOWEVER, other than last year, where due to hoof problems "Big Brown" who was off one Turf effort and seemed to have disappeared from the radar until his N.Y. turf-to-dirt return run before his sterling Fla. Derby as the favorite!!, what we have actually seen in the past 7-8 years is that Derby winners come off of 2 yr. old campaigns with ususally at least 3 preps as 3 yr. olds and MOST have found homes in Pool #1!, oddly enough, even 100-1 Giacomo!!

So, as to the -4/5 Field players, not my cup of tee!!! I would save that money for Derby Day!! As to the "30-1" or higher comment, I agree unless you are convinced that your horse stands way above the rest. But, your likely 12 to 15 horse in Pool #1 if he emerges as the favorite come Derby Day will only pay 3 to 4-1!! However, we have about 8 weeks of preps to watch, so WATCH!! and then analyze!  "Eight Belles" also didn't jump into the mix until late and I know at least one person who fell so head over heals with "Eight Belles" that he forgot to cash the corrent easy Derby EXACTA last year!  lol

Good Luck

I liked "The Challenge is On" article re the other 40 potentials for the 20 Post Position SLOTS!!! We have many to see yet. But will they make the required earnings? stay healthy?, or skip the Derby and go after the Preakness or the Belmont? And, what of other high priced "keenelanders" who have only been on the track once or not yet!? And, I think you left off "American Dance" who looks like he's bred for a 2 Mi. steep chase run!!! lol  

Dray,

   If Funny Cide the NY bred guttsy gelding can pull of a win in the Derby and Preakness, so can a nicely bred colt called Mr. Fantasy.

I love monitoring the three year olds leading up to Derby day, but have always found that Derby bound talent seems to rear their heads around the end of March. However at this point and time the stand out is Pioneer of the Nile, and the colts in the shadows may well include a powerful long striding colt like "Mr.Hot Stuff". A lot of time remains for more of the inexperienced colts to come on! Every time I lay my hand across the withers of one of my yearlings at this time of year I thank god for the look in their eye, the connection they share with me, and the endless pleasure they bring to us watching them grow strong in body and mind. This reminds me how privileged my life has been to spend it like this. At the risk of sounding somewhat melancholy .....I must admit this was brought on by my having watched my yearling Malibu Moon filly float full out across the paddock with an absolutely flawless gate & possibly this fourth woodfords so .....good night & good luck to all.

I think since they nominate 400-500 that the Pools should contain a minimum of 100 horse.

And, as an amendment, I would vote for entries that end up injured who qualified "graded stakes wise" and where the injury occured after a pool was closed should get refunds!!

yep we bought one...Scarlet Griffin...Tapit/Band of Gold...Grey/Roan Gelding...Long Live Bellwether Productions....& the King!!!...

I'll stick with any proven horse on the dirt.

square eddie is my pick, hes fantastic, pionner of the nile is my second pick, then old fashioned and then stardom bound, but i also like chocolate candy and capt. candyman!=]

I like Chocolate Candy  a lot but my main concern this  year is that ALL of the Derby horses run a safe and fair race and all go back to the barn on four legs.  Chocolate Candy sure does have the resume for this.  Time will tell.  It is still early.  

Looking at several possible Derby long shot possibilities. Loved Nowhere to Hide's recent effort stepping up last out, lots of upside with nice pedigree. Waiting to see Papa Clem's transition to the dirt, he could be a good one. Free Country can improve and could be best of them all. Chocolate Candy is solid as a rock but may not get the respect he deserves. I Want Revenge is a sleeper type with an even effort next out. Not that trumped up about any of the favorites right now, waiting to see someone to run that break out race over a conventional surface.

TouchStone I could not agree with you more Pioneer of the Nile has a lot of experience at two turns and his need for more distance is coming at a good time.  I will be watching his workouts at Churchill.

Got my horse and it is well over the 30 to 1

I can not believe that no one mentioned a horse that had the highest 2 turn Beyer figure as a 2 year old.  Is everyone from the West coast????  If you are take a look because some people out west have something too do with this horse namely Winstar Farms and I know you need to respect that name in this game.  The horse has 1 second and the rest improving wins, ran 1-1/16 faster than he ran 1-70yds.  Look at the breading not so bad, may have a little trouble winning the Belmont but looks like the Derby distance is a fits.

Remember it needs to be a long shot, how about .....Haynesfield!!!!

Chocolate Candy wins the Valentine's Day Dance.  Did not particularly care for the tail swish in deep stretch.  This one may be running out of gas.

Go Stardom Bound!!!!!!!!!!!

as to Hello Broadway (half Brother to "Nobiz Like Shobiz")... whose is still 'under the radar' but not as high on my list as yours, seems I remember Nobiz as a teenager young 3 year old was a weird erractic runner, ran funny, ran well one week then strange the next time out! maybe Broadway is or will be strange in that way too ??? and thusly training takes more effort to get him pointed in the right direction? just a thought

So far for this weekend, and we have Monday's "Old Fashioned" race to go yet... "Chocolate Candy" has retained the right to remain on my top 20 list,,, as far as I am concerned, THE REST WERE DISAPPOINTING failures!!

It seems the Curlin connections are back in the mix. In case you haven't heard it yet, make a note,

"Captain Cherokee" . his running stile sugests he'll love the derby distance, he has the looks and the connections. Am sure you will be hearing about him shortly

We'll see how Old Fashioned does Monday.  It seems that only the West is holding its form.  On to the San Felipe Jason!

Hhdr - I saw that tail switch also. . . . Haven't checked out his previous races to see if that is new.  You don't think he was just saying bye bye?  :)

I was impressed with the 2nd place Massone also.

And speaking of 2nd place horses, what an incredible 2nd place finish from Seventh Street in the Barbara Fritchie yesterday.  WOW.

General Quarters looks to be the best in Florida so far.He's consistent and stretching-out yesterday proved that he'll enjoy the added distances up ahead..He probably didn't beat anyone of significance,but he galloped-out very impressively..one to watch for sure!

Chocolate Candy is consistent too,but I feel he's not a "serious" threat for the Derby,yet.His El Camino Real race wasn't anything to Youtube about.Hollenderfer shipped him up North to avoid the Big Boys down South,which is understandable.Ok,so NOW he has enough Graded earnings to possibly punch his ticket to the Big Dance,but we'll see how he does in the SA Derby.

Will be watching the Southwest Stakes closely tomorrow.I think Old Fashioned is a strong bet-against candidate because of the lay-off and the tough up and coming field he's facing.Flat Out and Poltergeist are my picks..who wants some?

The first time I saw this filly run I posted the thread below on the MSNBC HR message board. I think based on her last two races she is better than all the fillies and colts seen in 2009. She is therefore my derby horse.

I recently reviewed the video of the G3 Debutant run at Churchill Downs. The race was won by the Todd Pletcher trained Garden District. She defeated Rachel Alexandra by half length in 1:11.07. My repeated review of the video brought to my attention the performance of runner up Rachel Alexandra. She is sired by Medaglia Doro out of the Roar broodmare Lotta Kim. She is a big strapping filly who clearly had no business being in a 6F race. She exhibited high cruising speed and her long strides allowed her to stay close to the pace.  Although she appeared to be still green, she closed with every stride.

Her pedigree is interesting. She's by the top class Medaglia Doro  (17 Starts: 8 - 7 - 0, $5,754,720)  Winner of: Travers S. (G1-10f), Whitney H. (G1-9f), Donn H. (G1-9f); Runner up in -  Belmont S. (G1-12f), Breeders' Cup Classic  G1-10F (twice), Wood Memorial S. (G1-9f), Pacific Classic S. (G1-10f),  Dubai World Cup (G1-10F) He is by El Prado the sire of a significant number of outstanding turf performers. Rachel Alexandra therefore should have no problems with synthetic tracks'. Her dam is the lightly raced Lotta Kim (4 Starts: 2-1-0, $146,485) is by the Forty Niner Stallion Roar. While I do not like the Mr Prospector broodmare line, I am prepared to recommend this filly based on her second dam Kims Blues who is by the influential Cure The Blues who is from the successful Hail To Reason broodmare sire line.

This filly is a beautiful mover with fluent strides that allow her to cover ground effortlessly. This filly can sit in a 1:10/1:11 pace and run 23 or 24 seconds for her last 2F. The 6F Debutant was woefully short for her, consequently  I expecting her to show her true worth when she gets additional real estate to cover. She has only 2 Breeders Cup points and is unlikely to make the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies field.

This is a beautiful filly that has pace and stamina. Stardom Bound cannot race 13 lengths off the pace and beat this filly. In fact, Stardom Bound can stay home for the Oaks.

It's extremely tough to pick a Derby horse so early in the season.  This is stating the obvious.  For me, personally, I feel the 2009 winner will come from a dirt track campaign.  I have nothing whatsoever against poly or synthetic, It's just a feeling.  I also think the winner will be by a young sire looking to add to, or make a reputation for himself.  A lot will be proved tomorrow in the Southwest.  I like Flat Out a great deal here.  Taking nothing away from Old Fashioned.  The layoff could pose a problem.  We shall see.  Also I like Haynesfield a lot.  People say, "who has he beat?"  I truly love the fact he is by Speightstown (a young sire) and he is versatile.  There is a horse named Mike From Queens who has finished 3rd to Haynesfield in the Count Fleet and the Whirlaway.  Let's see if he can improve in the Gotham Stakes.  It's not about the name or the dominance at this point.  For me it is about who is showing up race after race.  Who is finishing in the money, slowly coming around, maturing into a Derby winner.  Although he never won the KY Derby...I remember Jazil begging for more ground.  And finally rewarding me in the Belmont.  So good luck to all and to your picks.  May they all stay sound and healthy.  That is the most important thing.

Whatever m palmer...Stardom Bound has no shot in the Oaks?..funny,very funny.She's so good they might run her in the Derby instead.

Slew.em.All:  General Quarters looked quite impressive but he needs to do what he did one more time in the Tampa Bay Derby to convince me that he is not another Tampa pretender.  His pedigree suggests that he could turn out to be a good one.

You have to admit that Chocholate Candy has that classic disposition about him.  He looks like an ideal Belmont Stakes type.  His route to the Derby is a confidence builder for this horse and I believe that he is going to turn the table on Pioneer Of The Nile in the Santa Anita Derby.

Yes indeed, the Southwest is the most intriguing Derby prep so far with some interesting "young turks" like Silver City, Flat Out and Poltergeist challenging the highly favoured Old Fashion.  This will be a true test of the latter's mettle.  Kick On could also create some anxious moments for his more fashionable rivals.  

Right now General Quarters is the horse that has captured my attention.  Today's Southwest will help put a few more pieces into the puzzle.  If Old Fashioned can't get the job done, I think Poltergeist could be the take-down.

General Quarters turned in a very solid effort in the Sam Davis. He ran consistent splits, 24.2, 23.6, 24.2, 24.8, and the last furlong in 12.4. He came home the last 1/4 in 24.7. These are respectable fractions and show an ability to maintain for a distance. I'm hoping to see him step up to better competition before the Derby and watch how he fares.

Chocolate Candy showed some toughness by holding on to win. His fractions were 25.2, 24.4, 23.0, 25.0, and the last furlong in 12.8, coming home the last 1/4 in 25.2. He did his best running from the half mile to 3/4's mile mark to make the lead and held on to win. Another solid effort.

You can take what you want from these two races. General Quarters was clearly the best in his race and Chocolate Candy while running in spurts after moving to contention a bit prematurely showed some real grit by holding on to win. The next race for both of these will give us a better picture if they step up and face tougher than they did on Saturday.

As for the "futures" there was plenty of value to be found if you stayed away from Old fashioned and the "Field". I did not play the futures as I prefer to wait until the Derby to make my final decisions. It's way too early and too much can happen between now and then.

Slew.em.All, Did you see Rachel Alexandra’s race in the Martha Washington on 02/15/2009. She ran 1:11 and change for 6F and coasted home in 1:36 plus in hand. Her time in the Golden Rod Stk., was much faster than that of Giant Oak, Capt. Candyman Can & Beethoven in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk run on the same day and at a similar distance of 11/16 mile.

How would Stardom Bound defeat this horse? If she employs her usual running style she would have no chance as this RA will not be weakening like those fillies that SB has beaten. If she tries to stalk the pace, she would not have that powerful finishing kick. RA has much higher cruising speed consequently she will be several lengths ahead of SB. She can then run her last 2F in 23 and change. This means SB would have to run her last 2F in 22 and change to beat her.

Any thoroughbred be it colt or filly that can run 1:36 plus in hand, will not be beaten by a deep closer under normal circumstances. Big Brown ran 1:35 plus in hand in his 3YO debut. This was a time that top 3YOs were struggling to run flat out. This is a serious filly. SB is nice filly but RA is the more complete of the two i.e., she has more speed and based on her pedigree far more stamina.

NB: Check the history of fillies that have done well in the derby. They were not deep closers they were close to the pace horses. Stardom Bound cannot out close older stronger colts in a 20 horse field with her usual five wide moves.

Sorry about my last post ...just saw this information regarding Haynesfield but I still like him.   Chocolate Candy did not impress me with his win.  

Anyway here is a correction:

"he (Haynesfield) was assigned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure which would have qualified as the highest two-turn figure given a 2-year-old in 2008. But that number has subsequently been downgraded to a 93."

Mark Hopkins, an associate of Andy Beyer who makes the speed figures for New York Racing Association tracks, said he adjusted the figure after Haynesfield and the three horses that finished behind him in the Damon Runyon ran "much worse" in their subsequent starts.

I am not sure why "subsequent starts" change back numbers?

TO: M PALMER:

If you are under the impression Stardom Bound has no chance in the Oaks,then you are fooling yourself!

Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra both belong in the Derby.  We will find out who is better in the Derby.

Chocolate Candy got fanned wide on the first turn and after slow fractions Baze decided to take the horse to the lead after 3/4...not his typical running style. It does show us that he is capable of another dimension though.  With the Pamplemousse up front in the Santa Anita Derby he will have more to run at.  I can't wait to see Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound closing at 1 1/8th.  Here is where we separate the late running sprinters from the classic types.  Throw in Pioneer of the Nile and I Want Revenge and all eyes turn west.  Candy Ride was undefeated after 6 on both dirt and turf taking the Pacific Classic in track record time.  I think he also posted the higest beyer of that year (123).  I'm not too concerned about Chocolate Candy's synthetic only performances.

I'm gona lean towards Tapit's two, Stardom Bound and Poltergeist. Not sure how well Poltergeist is yet, but I think he has a good chance if he runs well today.

m palmer: yes I've seen Rachel's last race which was impressive,but she beat nobody of significance,that's why she blew them away..It doesn't matter what kinda' splits they run,Stardom Bound has proven that she'll close and win against the best.SB also won her last race in 1:36+ in hand..and she can make her move WHENEVER they ask her to.Clearly they haven't gotten to the bottom of her yet,and if Bobby Frankel says she's a "Special Filly",that's good enough for us.

And your hypothetical splits/fractions in "normal circumstances",as you stated,would be in SB's favor,assuming the field is above average in quality and Not the slowpokes that RA faced last out..What I'm saying is as they race on,RA will eventually hook other speedy/quality type fillies that'll compromise her chances of winning,while with SB it really doesn't matter,she will be closing down the stretch,no matter the splits.

My Money is on Stardom Bound to Conquer and repeat as Champion this year!...come get u some!.. :)

I know we were talkin' about have we picked a longshot here, and he's no long shot, but man-o-man, did you see Old Fashioned run? ! Did you see him NOT get a speed duel with Silver City after the first quarter in 22 and change?

It just gets better.  EVITA ARGENTINA takes out the boys at equal weight in the San Vicente-Grade 2, with a huge closing kick.  The Candy Ride filly was 9 off and last at the 1/4 pole.  Perhaps she can turn the tables on Stardom Bound this time around in the Santa Anita Derby.  Her mom's side says late running sprinter but she is at least interesting and fun to watch.  Could be the year of the filly!

I have many favorites but I chose two horses that had tough races and have the ability to improve in the next race. I placed bets on Beethoven and Giant Oak. If both of these horses keep improving and them both doing well at Churchill. The derby is still up in the air but with Old Fashioned winning today, he has become the clear cut favorite right now.

Wanda if you're out there, I had Silver City in the Southwest. Also threw in Buzzin and Dreamin for Wayne and Scooter Dickey's Flat Out. (those were the two we've been touting and we NEVER count Wayne out). Of course added Larry's colt so I hit the super. Not much just over 1200.00 (for a $2 ticket, had a few) My other without Old Fashioned would have been better but oh well I'll take it. I'll also take my Derby horse out of Arkansas or Florida this year. Probably an Arkie track horse.

Old Fashioned is another Pyro.  He can beat up on the easy early competition but will not win big races.  Slow finish.

Well Old Fashion didn't dissapoint.

He did what everyone wanted to do, he rated nicely for Gomez, was running up on blistering opening fractions, so off a bit of a layoff, i think the fact that he finished slowly is due to the layoff and quick opening fractions. Also just a thing, not a lot of horses are going all that quick this year, so maybe the tracks are slower this year. OF did show some guts. When SC challenged back he didn't back down he faught back, resulting in a 3 and 1/4 length victory. Overall i think it was a good race.

Rachael Alexandra covered the same distance one second faster the day before (rated fast both days).  About a one second difference in the first splits (slower) for her race.  She has the best time for a mile (still) at the meet.

Oaklawn was so speed biased today, anything on the front end went on with it, I do not believe we learned anything from this race today, I think every one is going to think Old Fashioned ran a superb race but not so fast my friends, I beleive Flat Out may have made this race very interesting if the jock wasn't asleep at the break, he was the only horse that closed against the grain the 4 races I saw today at Oaklawn. As for the filly's I hope they stay in the Oaks, don't really care for them in the Derby, jmo. Are Mr. Fantasy and Haynesfield going to face each other in the next race in NY?  What was every ones else opinion of the Southwest today?  

The west is ready to throw everything at Old Fashioned, even a couple of late running fillies.  It should be one of the better Kentucky Derbys if all stay fit and healthy.  

Hey buddy! Congrats on the super. Can't stay on long {bad back} I can't sit for long at the computer. But man am I happy to hear from you. Sitting in the top third in the roadtotheroses contest. When is Danger to Society going to run?

People,

    Come on, OF did everything you people wanted him to do, he relaxed and let SC have the lead w/o getting upset and rank, he ran practicly on top of blistering opening fractions through the early half mile and won, which is what some of you said he couldn't do. Then whats he do, he beats Flat Out, an impressive winner of the Smarty Jones, and SC who was on a three race win streak, by over three lengths. Big deal that his closing times were slow, many horses at Oaklawn have been closing slow, and he's no exception. O and if you read Steve Haskin's column, you'll see that smarty Jones, ran identical opening and closing halves, and look what he did, landed two jewls of the TC. Plus he and OF are pretty simalar in their running styles, of wanting to be on or near the pace. The difference with Smarty is that he didn't like to relax and that why when challenged in the Belmont faltered. OF has already showed he can go dist races and rate, he's done more than Smarty has done at this point so why don't you give the colt his due?

Old Fashioned showed how to come back off of a layoff. After not racing since November you could expect some rust. He shook of that rust to win clear. This is how a comeback should look for a good horse. He ran the fastest fractions of his career up front (sprinters fractions through 6f)and put away the competition. His final quarter of 26.2 won't get it domne in the Derby but if he moves forward off of this look out. Final times vary from track to track and this is not GP where all fractional times are inflated simply because of the type of surface it is. This comeback was very well orchestrated and sets him up for another move forward next out. We shall see.

It's funny how we all see a race...even the sportswriters...one has Old Fashioned working hard, another has him drawing away...i saw a horse do what he was asked, as much as he was needed to get the job done...

He was on his toes all the way to the gate and I was surprised and happy to see him willing to rate behind the leader...

Guess he can run on dirt and his final time was not bad for the stake.

You have all LOST IT. I mentioned in a post earlier. The BEST value in Pool# 1 was "Old Fashioned", because the pool closed on Sunday, and I was right. I'll take my 7/1 to the bank while you all dream about your 30/1 also rans. All he did was, run the exact same race as Smarty Jones. What, that's not good enough for everyone. That don't win the Derby on February, they just start cranking them up. I loved him in October, and I love him even more today.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

LDP .... huh? Since when did 45.98 and 1:11.04 become blistering fractions in a mile long race? He ran the last half in 51 seconds... 51 SECONDS...PASS !!! To have this horse listed in your top 5 is crazy who has he beat ?  Optional claiming winners and Maidens.  Give me a break.

1.Friesan Fire, 2.The beautiful Filly, Stardom Bound(if she runs), 3. This one is for Phil(hate the name, love the horse)

Also holding out hope for Smarty's Kid Rockland....Well, your welcome everyone (lol), That is a trifecta BOX..

Slew.em.All

Yeah I have this feeling about Stardom Bound.   Something is nagging at me about her.  She is an amazing filly.  Please no more fillys in the Derby breakdowns.  We CANNOT have that!  Of course this year will be a lot different because the rules are a lot better.  I like her.  I agree with your post.  

I just wanted to add that it looks like Myung Kwon Cho May have claimed himself another Video Ranger with Lifeline. It was heartbreaking to see Street Hero get retired due to injury. So hopefully Lifeline fills his shoes and when is Frank Stronach going to give Brian Lynch some American triple crown runners? He has been so dominant in the Canadian triple crown. Hopefully he and Cho both win the Derby one day because I was such a huge fan of Riva Ranger.

Call me "old fashioned" but when is the last time a California horse won the derby?  

$5 on Old Fashioned even though he is just a measly 7-1 in the future pool.  Larry Jones is due!

I like Old Fashion but something tells me that he isn't going do it.  I hope and pray that above everything, he stays safe and healthy and I know that he has a really really good trainer but IMO I think he will hit the board, just not the first one accross the wire.  Actually it really is way too soon to tell.  The Derby is in 3 months and anything can happen between now and then.  It is the 'day of the race' that counts the most.  Whoever wins this, I just want it to be a good and safe race.  I would love to see Stardom Bound in the Derby and I love Chocolate Candy.  They can't both win the same race but I would like to see them both hit the board and go home to their stall on 4 heathly legs.  

Dray, look at it this way. Vinyard Haven ran poorly after his layoff. You're not jumping off his bandwagon because you pointed out, I believe rightly, he needed a race and he was on a track he didn't like. In that vein, I don't see how you can throw out OF. The time wasn't stellar, but he did win without going belly down to get it. There are still too many preps left to toss OF.

As much as everyone hates to admit it, Giacomo won the Derby.

Draynay I like your analogy with Pyro.  Suspect at anything over a mile.  Last seen running the BC mile or something to that effect.  

Betting trends in the SW. OF opened @ 1/9. This translates to a LOCK when a horse hasn't run in months. (5) minutes to post, OF @ 2/5 - this translates to unwise $$$ trying to beat the LOCK. Now learn a LJ handicapping lesson, "Bullet" workouts translate to winning efforts. LJ doesn't pull punches, he wants you know you better have your running shoes when you come to his dance. Of the other traners, only Baffert trains this way, and I don't envision him backing off PTN either. My experience tells me that Baffert will not stay in CA until the Derby. He'll want to find out if his charge can handle the dirt. If LJ has any concerns, it probably about Baffert and PTN.

I still see LJ smiling at the end of the day.

Lots of great comments on this blog. I will stay with Chocolate Candy who was pushed out five wide on the first turn and raced on the outside down the backside in the El Camino. He could have run the race in one second slower. 149 and 2 for nine furlongs is enough to beat most of these Derby contenders. I would love to see Jerry Hollendorfer work out Chocolate Candy until the Santa Anita Derby. "Candy" has already the earnings to make the Derby and "Candy" will benefit from Pampaloose on the front end. He should be able to get in the top three against these horses in the Santa Anita Derby. I also love the breeding on "Candy"... half brother to Invasor and "Candy" grandad was Seattle Slew. I did see the You tube of the Cash Call Futurity and yes Chocolate Candy was closing furiously. "Candy" showed great versatility by battling on the front end in the El Camino this past Saturday and Hollendorfer will show that he means business in the Santa Anita Derby by having Raphael Bejarano ride him instead of Russell Baze.

I am thrilled to get 28-1 in the Derby Pool on "Candy" and he was as high as 58-1 at one point. The last horse to win the KY Derby from California was Giacomo.

I will root for Larry Jones but let's see how Old Fashioned starts handling longer distances. I listened to someone on the blog and got a few dollars down on Haynesfield. Steve Asmussen trained so he could be there competing in the Derby. This is one of the solidest fields for the Derby and I hope that all of them can be healthy and sound the rest of the year!

TO: DERBY34

This might come as a shock,but you weren't the ONLY ONE that thought OF would win yesterday. In fact,I wrote in a blog last week I expected him to run big!

Tiznowbaby... I love ya but don't come to a gun fight with only one bullet.  Vineyard Haven is a two time G1 winner and has smoked many of the horses talked about for the Kentucky Derby.  His times and splits run at Belmont AND Saratoga blow away ANYTHING Old Fashioned has ever done.  AND ... Old Fashioned has not beat anything yet.  Comparing him to Vineyard Haven is like comparing a Ford Tempo to a BMW.  After his last effort I am convinced he is not a 1 1/4 horse.

Very inciteful comments draynot.

Old Fashioned's race was just what he needed to set him up for the next race. It remains to be seen whether or not he can make the leap to bigger and better things but he certainly didn't have to show that Monday. He did just what he needed to do and he did it running improved fractions on the front end. Now he needs to show he can sustain it longer in his races leading up to the Derby. He has all the graded earnings he needs to make the field so now his connections only need to prepare him for his top effort on Derby day and not before then.

If this was a horse who had only an allowance win under his belt  in mid-march then he would have to be fully cranked next out to insure his beat shot at winning. Anything less than a win at that point would leave him outside looking in. Old Fashioned's connections are some of the best there is and they will not make the mistake of him going over the top before the Derby because he doesn't have to be at his best until then. What is left for them to do between now and Derby day is to get him there in top condition.

We shall see is a very good way of putting it. Either he shows improvement between now and then or he'll just be another face in the race that doesn't make the grade like 19 others were last year.

One more thing,

mikie irrelavant,

Way to give yourself a big pat on the back for predicting the outcome of OF's race. Too bad most everyone looking at the race made the same conclusion. Kinds takes your thunder away. Had he been 20-1 it might have been worth pointing out your prediction, in this case....NOT!!

Dray,

    I never said the six furlong was blister, but the opening half, of 45 is darn fast, and so is an opening quarter of 22. The horse is coming of a layoff, get some pressure, but relaxes, yet he still is on quick fractions, and still win, that sounds good to me. Honestly having him in my top five is my oppinion, i honestly think to have VH in yours right now is crazy, i just didn't come out and say it. Let me have my oppinion, w/o trashin the horses i like and maybe i won't retaliate and let you have yours.

Dray,

    Where on this blog did i even mention my top five? That would be on Steves blog, so why don't you get onto the right blog before you go shooting your mouth off. Two in that particular post i believe i was i addressing mike, not you.

Dray, love ya back (for the moment), but two words for you: Favorite Trick.

The dominator at 2, not so much at 3. Just because VH was all that at 2 doesn't automatically translate to all that at 3. There's just too much time left in my book to be dismissing horses.

Oh, and I'm not yet comparing OF to VH. I'm taking a wait and see attitude.

TO DRAYNOT:

Well,you NEVER disappoint for running off at the mouth! If you read Derby34 comment he was "blowing his own horn" I was only making a point. Maybe you should read his comments before displaying your lack of knowledge!

TO: LDP

How are you!

It's too early for me to pick my favorite. A lot can happen in the next 6 weeks.  I remember Pyro was the big horse this time last year then BB stepped up to the plate.

I'll wait and see what happens.

Good to see you Wanda!

OK a lot of people know that OF is a good horse.  I don't think that he will win the Derby.  I believe that there are a few others in there that will fly right by him. Doesn't mean that anyone is wrong.  It is just he wins a lot of races.  I am still undecided with all of this and until the middle of April, I won't really know much of anything providing I even get that much into it.  

I think its still too early, I can't nail one down right now. But I think it would be interesting if both the hot fillies run in the KD. Hal Wiggins mentioned earlier that RA was pointed to the Kent. Oaks, but after that Martha show he is changing his mind about running with the boys. Hal has trained horses for my dad and I'm going to start putting a little pressure on him to run her in the big one. I think this girl belongs.

Gotta say I agree with Draynay...let's see what Old Fashioned faces in the Arkansas Derby.  The way Baffert moans and groans about synthetics we may see Pioneer of the Nile move east.  After Evita Argentina's score in the San Vicente against the boys I'm starting a Candy Ride fan club!  The west is holding more than one ace with a little under 2 months to the Santa Anita Derby.

Hey Monica V nice to hear from you. I like the way OF ran off the layoff. Should move forward off that last start. This time of year they have to move forward or they ain't going be there first Sat in May.

Draynay:

Vineyard Haven looked like an 85' 3 series in the 2000 guineas last week.

Rachael A was coming off a very long layoff.  Her last race was Nov 29, 2008 at Churchill.  So her first race back was pretty impressive with the fastest mile of the Oaklawn meet so far.  In addition, she earned a 99 BSF to Old Fashion's 93.  Is she more "cranked" than he?  In the Golden Rod, she ran 1 1/16 in 143.08.  The next race on the card was the Kentucky Jockey Club and the 1 1/16 was run in 144.14.  The first 3 finishers were Beethovan, Giant Oak, and Capt CC. . . Shades of Eight Belles.

Hey Mike,

    I'm in full battle mode with Dray, but as of now about to become in full bedtime mode, thanks to school, so i can't stay long. Thanks for asking how are you?

MIKE RELVA

What are your thoughts on Chocolate Candy?  That horse is starting to become my fav.  

TO STARDUST:

How are you? I think there's a big upside for C. Candy,one to watch!

Sorry Mike

    I just now noticed that i used my other blog name in my last post on this blog. Sorry if i confused you.

HI LDP:

You didn't confuse me I'm smart enough to figure it out,lol.

Mike,

    Good, i have no doubt your not smart enough, the way you express you oppinion on blogs shows that well. I just wanted to makes sure.

TO LDP:

How are you? Is OF your #1 horse at present? I think he's a very good one.

Mike,

    OF currently is my top horse. I also found some replay of one of your favs, Haynesfield. I really like his count fleet, because of the fact it showed he could lay off the pace, and still win nicely. He also showed he has fight in him which i always like to see in a horse. Along with liking those two i like DP, Mr.F, and POTN, after OF the others listed are in no particular order. My list, probably like most may change, depending on what goes on during the road to the TC, so that being said i'm not making a definte list until March or April. O by the way the reason SB isn't on my list is because i'm not convinced she'll run in the Derby, if she does and continues to due as well as she's been doing i'll happily add her because she is prob my fav filly or close. Who's you top so far, or your favorite.

Sorry Mike used my old name as you can very well see. Sorry.

TO: LDP:

I like Pioneer,OF,Stardom Bound,VH,maybe Haynesfield depending on his next race. So what is your course of study you're taking?

Mike,

    If you mean by course of study in school, i'm an animal science person. I want to be an racehorse owner/trainer when i get older too, so i take some business classes. If you me how do i choose the horses i like, i go by what i see, and what i know about horses in general, and the amount i do on racing. I've always had a good instinct with horses, so i try to go with that. Did i answer your question right?

I once went to a track and talked with a former "Iranian jockey", he said, and I quote, "Look for the horses with solid color!", there is one reason to like "Chocolate Candy" if for no other!!!

TO LDP:

You sound very bright! Wish you luck in your future plans.

Hey Mike,

    Can't stay long, i gotta ready for work, an Arab racing farm. I'm starting to get sick though, so i'm hoping i can get through the day very very fast. Thanks for the compliment, you always seem to know what your talking about on here too:)

HI LDP:

Very nice for you to say that,thanks. You also seem to possess a great deal of knowledge regarding racing. Hope you feel better asap.

Mike,

    Thank you again. I try to sound as knowlegable as i can. I've never owned a race horse, well kinda, i have an ex i'm trying to turn into a jumper, but he's fiesty and likes to do things his way. You could probably ask me almost anything about english riding and see how much more i know about it than racing. I get most of my knowledge for racing from blogs like this and from what i learn by watching tvg. O and thanks for the get well, i think i've only gotten worse, considering i can't hardly breath, lol. Thanks though and have a nice day.

LDP: Racing Arabians eh? I trained a few of them in the late 80's and found you pretty well had to put blinkers on most of them to get them to focus. I must say that they were very easy to gate train in that they are on the whole very intelligent to begin with.It was fun to gallup them cause you could get them to take quite a hold of the bit, besides they were pretty to look at!

HI LDP:

Hope you are feeling much better by now. If you ever wanna communicate outside of here,I can give you my email add.

Wanda,

    I wish i could gallop horses i have a bad shoulder and back, and though i'd love to feel that kinda power, i'd also love to get to 30 in on piece. I always have ppl telling me i'm way too young to have as many problems as i do, and it's my fault because i pushed so hard when i was even younger. I'd also love to train, but don't. I learn a lot from the trainer their he's a good guy. Right now i'm a groom, and i'm yet again ready to move up and push myself to a new level, lets hope i don't get hurt.

Hey Mike,

    I wispered that, since my voice is going in and out and my throat feels like it's made of sand paper. I'm hoping this gets over fast, but it doesn't seem to agree, and is content to make me feel like i need to as we call it hack up a lung, lol. I'll get over it, i always do. O with the email, sure. I'm also on face book as dani pugh so if you have one of those feel free to see if you can find me.

O, Wanda,

    You should see one of the 3yr olds in training now, probably around 15.1 or 15.2 hands, and thick boy, but fits himself nicely. He has a giant of a stride to and looks like he'd be smooth as glass to ride on. He's a big bay with tons of chrome, and lots of talent. His only problem is he always seems to want to know why he needs to perform a specific task, and you can't force him, you gotta ask him. Once you get past that he's a dream. He's my fav of the two.

Lot of water between him and the Kentucky dirt,seems to be under everyones radar at 19:1.hmmmm calm before the storm??

TO LDP:

Hi,hope you are improved by now,not fun being sick. Don't have facebook. My add. is: tennesseeguy33us@yahoo.com

Hey Mike,

    Yes i'm finally getting better, but i still can't talk very well. We are reading Macbeth in school today and are on act two and my teacher gives me the part of lady macbeth, i was like you've got to be kidding. Thats a big part, and i can barely talk. Well i delt with it and got through it. Otherwise yes i'm imporving. Excuse me for being wary, but, i'm always told to be careful on the internet, especially these days, so i am kinda nervous about the e-mail thing, but anyhow mine is radianceparadise@aol.com

WOW! Seriously?  lol