There are two horses that have another race to run BEFORE the Derby and they do not look like they can run another and then the Derby - Pioneer of the Nile and Old Fashioned. They are tired horses and running them April 11th and then 3 weeks in the Derby gives them NO CHANCE of winning.  Friesan Fire is last years Pyro.  The 5 horses that can win the Derby are Quality Road, Imperial Council, Desert Party, Theregoesjojo, and I Want Revenge.  If Old Fashioned is STILL on your list you are in denial.  The horse just got beat by an opitonal claimer.  The fractions were fast but hardly blazing for the distance. Poor Pioneer of the Nile looks tired and the only cure for that is rest. He will NEVER catch Pampelmousse in the Santa Anita.

All that matters now is Desert Party, The Wood winner, and the Florida Derby winner. Take the rest from the minor league races and toss them for the win.

I think the most impressive run this weekend was Rachel Alexandra on a heavy, sealed track, under wraps, stomping the daylights out of a nice bunch and the second fastest time of the 3-year-old races at the distance the whole weekend...

Rachel

Anyone remember how Old Fashioned had only one work before the Rebel-only five furlongs? Maybe he wasn't fit enough.

Very disappointed in all the races this weekend. Not a chance any of the horses coming out of Tampa Bay move on to the Kentucky Derby! That race was heaven for all the longshot gamblers. Pioneer of the Nile was asked by Gomez to move way to quick and for a little bit down the stretch looked like he might be caught, which would of been funny but that wasn't a quality field. POTN might be the Colonial John of last year! As for the Rebel, who again was that horse that won?!?! The Louisiana Derby, I'll give Friesan Fire his due. He ran lights out and looked very professional doing so. But what happened to the rest of the horses? That was at least on paper a strong field and down the stretch, heck before the final turn to be honest it was like watching a maiden claiming race. Yes, Papa Clem and Terrain tried but after watching that race one word comes to mind "Pretenders"! We have way to many pretenders going after the derby and not enough condenders. It reminds me a lot of last year. Yes, Big Brown was special but go back and look at last years field and the word pathetic will come to mind. I see the same thing happening this year. Heck the Kentucky Oaks is probably going to be a better race. Just hope the next round of Derby prep races turn out better than what I saw this past Saturday

Am I reading the article right on the main page that they are having a sort of "Win and You're In" for the Kentucky Derby in Europe??  How is that possibly fair to the horses who will most likely have a higher graded stakes earning, to lose a spot to a Euro horse just because they won a race in Europe???  It should be the same no matter where they come from!  If they have the graded stakes earnings to get in, great, if not, better luck next time.  

Elway... please stop knocking last years class since Sok Sok, Smooth Air, Macho Again, and other 4 year olds ALL won Stakes races over the weekend.  That weak class took it to the older horses and won.  You want to call a class WEAK, how about this years class?  Show me any horse east of the Mississippi that has run a 1:11 fraction at two turns..... I will wait....

Friesan Fire validated his trainer's belief in him and deserves to go to the top of the list at this time. Maybe Old Fashioned needed more than one work? Whatever, someone thinks Win Willy will move forward off this race at OP. Late last night I read on Brisnet that his owners turned down a $3 million offer for him after the Rebel win. As a son of Monarchos he will be interesting to watch.

Jason: I think that you need to take your blinkers off and look again at the Rebel Stakes, paying full attention to Win Willy, the son of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.  This colt is no Optional Claimer/ One Race Wonder.  Watching him flash past the entire Rebel field including the hitherto unbeaten Derby favoutite Old Fsahioned like a "run-away-train" was jaw-dropping-awesome.  He was even running green down the stretch.  I am amazed at how oblivious your commentary is to the sheer class demonstrated by an unheralded but very well bred colt.  This horse has quintessential Derby pedigree and the kind of sustained last five furlong finishing burst that can win the Derby against quality stalkers and pacey front runners.  

From my vantage point Win Willy and Rachel Alexandra were the big performers on the weekend.  That filly can definitely match the best of the colts going the Derby distance.  Friesan Fire continues his steady improvement and remains a very live contender.  Old Fashioned is a classy colt but had his limitations exposed.  He is the pacey type that needs to stalk front runers closely in a route race in the hope of stealing a march on the field in order to win.  The Rebel gave us the insight that both the contentious pace and the distance of the Kentucky Derby are going to burn him, with the likes of The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge and the aforementioned Win Willy around.  

With the greatest respect for Bob Baffert, I think that Pioneer Of The Nile looks like an exceptional grass/ synthetic middle distance horse that is going to flounder on dirt.  I could easily envision him sweeping the Epsom and Irish Derbies but sorry, not the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  We shall see.

Here's my top ten as of now: 1)Quality Road, 2)Rachel Alexandra, 3)Win Willy, 4)I Want Revenge, 5)The Pamplemousse, 6)Friesan Fire, 7)Dunkirk, 8)Theregoesjojo, 9)Chocholate Candy, 10)Desert Party.

Of the remaining prep races I expect that the Blue Grass Stakes which is turning out to be a backdoor entrance into the Derby, will throw up another surprise.  If you ask Todd Pleatcher he might answer in the Affirmative, following up on Monba and Cowboy Cal last year .        

I just read on Kentuckyderby.com that Win Willy's owner was offered 3 million for the colt, but the offer was turned down.  Says that he's going to send him to the Arkansas Derby next,so I guess Old Fashioned will get a chance to redeem himself against Willy.  Should be interesting.

I say Nay to Dray. Old Fashioned is not a tired horse. He's only had like 2 or 3 races this year, coming off a lay off. Of course he was a little tired dueling it out early with the beautiful and wasted Silver City. Old's race in the Rebel didn't disappoint me one bit. I think he can learn a lot from this race.

 As for Win Willy, I was proud of him and his jock for beating a fine horse. They took "advantage" of a hot pace. The horse gave everything to go a little wide and sprint for home. The strategy for these guys panned out to be a no-brainer.

 As for Pioneer, even though he may seem a little tired, if he keeps his form and his guts, I don't see him doing any worse than 6th crossing the Derby finish line, if he takes to the dirt.

 Friesan Fire was awesome, however I fear he is peaking too soon. Pyro doesn't even compare to Friesan fire. The only problem that Fire faces is himself--physically and mentally.

 By the way, I am not even sure the future Derby winner has been hyped up yet. I have truly yet to be impressed with this years crop of horses. Before my choice becomes solid, I am still watching the radar. Most of the horses have ran against unimpressive competition. I am waiting for more stakes to be ran on real dirt. California weather is warmer, therefore it only makes sense for a wave of west coasters to come in first. All the Cal races start first.

I think the most impressive win of last weekend was Win Willy. He did everything wrong - bad start, way last through most of the race, outside around the turn. But the first half of the race was fast and he did a major sprint for the last third of the race. Can he do it again or was that just a freak thing?

Anyone who still doubts Friesan Fire is nuts! Last year's Pyro? Are you crazy.  Totally different running style and pedigree is way better. Larry Jones said he was special all along. Domingez is not ready to be a big time jockey.  Why would you chase a 5 furlong speedster?  And Rachel Alexandra is only threat to Friesan Fire. Medaglio on top, Arch on bottom. She can run all day!

Just a word on the Tampa Bay Derby.  Although the racing surface is reported to be a bit unpredictable in terms of whether a horse takes to it or not, I don't think that Musket Man is a flash in the pan type of horse.  He a genuine sort that seems to be improving and could surprise a lot of people on Derby Day.  His pedigree does not suggest stamina but his performances belie his pedigree therefore he's your ideal "under the radar" type.

A couple of horses deserve another chance to show that they belong in the Derby, namely Hello Broadway, Flying Pegasus and Dutrow's horse Patena.  Track conditions might have adversely affected their performances last weekend.

Draynay.....I was only talking about the 20 horses that lined up in the starting gate for last years Kentucky Derby. The only horse you mentioned that ran in that race was Smooth Air and where did he finish?!?! Now, I like Smooth Air don't get me wrong but the field as a whole was weak! I think the horses going after the Derby this year are weak as well and like my first comment it's disappointing.

Jason,

I agree with the majority of your list, although I think alot of people in general are giving too much respect to these allowance winners or runner-ups in stakes races to where they would go off at a much underlaid price. Such as Giant Oak, Patena, Warrior's Reward, Hello Broadway, Silver City, and soon to be Imperial Councel. I can understand where thinking a horse can have the potential of doing well in the long run, but let's see them win some stakes races before they're ranked or wagered more than the horses that have already beaten them.

I also am wondering how strong the Florida contingent is this year. Horses that have shipped out of GP have not performed very well overall. I think the Beyer's for them have been inflated and they could be very well overrated. And someone has to fix the first quarter timer for those 1m races. They are just way off.

On a couple of performances this weekend, I think it's clear that Fresian Fire should get the respect he deserves. To me, he's not number one, but I wouldn't argue with his placement on your list. As far as Old Fashioned, alot of people are knocking him for his performance but I think he can build to that. Ramon D. had him too close to the pace on a deep track and if it wasn't for one horse firing from the back with a freak run he would've dominated the field. I mean, he was over 8 clear of the rest. I think it should count for something. Pioneer of the Nile was taken out of his game plan when the field came up short of speed which forced Garret Gomez to place his horse in a position that he wasn't comfortable with. But the horse still came out a winner. The horse has a tendancy to wait on other horses, which explains why his ears were up @ the 1/8th pole and he got to playing around. I wouldn't expect this horse to win by daylight anytime soon until he has this game figured out. Let's not forget, he hasn't even turned 3 yet. So there is still plenty of upside to him. Hopefully he got enough out of this race and he should be able to put it in a better showing as the The Pamplemousse will be able to set things up for him up front in the SA Derby. Now it's just a question of whether he'll be able to catch him.

dranay for someone who thinks he knows so much, better check your dates, the SA derby is run on the 4th thats gives PON 4 weeks not 3.

I also was impressed with Musket Man. Going into the race there were a couple of horses in there that were highly regarded.  Funny how now after one bad race, no one even mentions their name.  I dont think Musket Man is nominated to the Derby, which may be a good thing.  I think he's got a chance to be a real nice 3 year old later on this year.  His race was very impressive, if you factor in the trip he had, how much ground he made up in the last 16th, and they were only a few ticks off the track record of Street Sense.

Jason... something doesn't seem right.  If she is not going to the Derby why would he race her in the Arkansas?  And if she won the Arkansas how COULD HE keep her out of the Derby?  Is he dodging right now to keep the spotlight off the connections.?  klc... last year at this time everyone was talking about Pyro and his amazing performance over horses that would not be in the Derby.  So far FF hasn't beaten a single horse going to the Derby and his fractions were SLOW.  Put all your money on FF so I can get better odds on the horse that actually has a chance to win the race.  FF has no shot.

Jason my friend, Derby fever has a way of infecting owners of brilliant 3YOs.  I haven't heard that Rachel Alexandra's connections have been immunized.  On the contrary, I've already seen the symptoms in their comments.  Let's wait and see but as a Derby prognosticator I'm putting her in that field with a very good shot of winning.

Let me tell you a little more about Win Willy's credentials.  As you are aware pedigree is a very very important factor in a potential Derby winner.  This horse is a 5th generation decendant of 1969 Kentucky Derby winner Majestic Prince (Raise A Native x Gay Hostess).  In Win Willy's significant 1st 3 generatinons sire line there is Derby-winner-producing Maria's Mon and Wavering Monarch (Monarchos).  There is every likelihood of a repeat offspring here.  Also on his dam line, within the 1st 3 generations is the prolific Derby-winner-producing influences, Carson City and Mr Prospector (Barbaro et al).  Added to that is the presence of Northern Dancer 4x4 through Dixieland Band on top and Storm Bird on the bottom.  

He trampled the Rebel field in a manner reminiscent of his sire's Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby performances.  That Monarchos-like trademark explosion from 5 furlongs out is truly up to Derby standard.  I agree with the owners in rejecting that $3M offer.  That colt is for real and if I were the owner anything less than $12M would be an insult.

capper... POTN has no chance of running 2 more races in 45 days and doing well in the second when he is going to be chasing a very fast Pamplemousse.  Come back here after the Derby and tell me how well POTN did.  He is now toss for me plain and simple.  He looks tired and has never run on dirt...PASS !!!  Elway SMOOTH AIR won another graded stakes race and has done what few horses have EVER done.  He has won stakes races on turf and on dirt at 1 1/8, 7 furlongs, and a mile. G1 MetMile is next for him.

I thought the Derby was still an outside possibility for Rachel?  I would rather she not go there but she is as fast as most of these colts.  I am always stunned by her - every time I see her run.  Need to see someone, anyone, run with her - that might require a colt.  No disrespect to Stardom Bound - I just think Rachel is faster w/ definite stamina.

POTN is tired?  Really?  Is that why he lengthened his stride at the 16th pole when Gomez got after him?  He wants a target and a target he shall get next out.

Pamplemousse already got the 1 1/8 miles in the Sham - only question now is will he go on with some pace pressure or sit off it.

Old Fashioned did chase hot pace on heavy track but that was a cheap fold nonetheless at 1 1/16 miles.  I wonder if he was fit enough off the works, but wouldn't question Jones.  He is targeting the Derby, not the Rebel.

This comment puzzles me:“A couple of horses deserve another chance to show that they belong in the Derby, namely Hello Broadway, Flying Pegasus and Dutrow's horse Patena. Track conditions might have adversely affected their performances last weekend.”  Yet the same post says that Old Fashioned’s race confirms distance limitations.  How do some deserve another chance but OF doesn’t?  The Oaklawn track was a mess on Saturday.

I have read comments from people who were at Oaklawn on Saturday saying that the track was like peanut butter and most races were very slow that day.  Despite this, the half mile split in the Rebel was faster than all the sprint races that day except for one and significantly faster than anything one mile or over.  So I would say to anyone who may be quick to cross OF off their list and anoint Win Willy, consider the fast sprint-like fractions and the tiring track along with the fact that a fast pace can make a closer look better than they are...e.g. the ‘05 Kentucky Derby.  On Saturday I think it was the track more than the fractions that did OF in, combined, perhaps, with a premature move.  IMO, on a fast track, despite the early move, Willy would never have caught OF.  Jones said before the race that OF wasn’t fully cranked yet, so that’s worth keeping in mind as well.  

Does anyone out there know why Flat Out didn't run in the Rebel?I saw him run in a small 50k stakes at Oaklawn Park @ 1 mile and he won impressively and had a nice fluid and powerful stride.Looked like he could run all day.

as far as Rachel Alexandra goes, yes she's good...but did nobody notice DON'T FORGET GIL'S win in the Fl Oaks???  She ran faster than Musket Man and finished strong....maybe her names makes sense!!!! I hope she goes for the Ky Oaks..

Yea Jason I agree with you about OF. He deserves another chance off his last starts.Off track,hot pace, the ride he got etc. Patena is a better horse than that, sorry I have to disagree with your comments about him. I don't know what the story is but I for one liked him inspite of his connections and their positive spin doctors. Tampa Bay Derby didn't produce a horse you can get excited about and POTN still looks darn good. Win Willy's owners got offered big bucks, if that was me I'd take it in a New York minute!

Pioneerof the nile didn't have a target to run after in the San Felipe, Bob Baffert has stated before he tends to wait on horses. He doesn't have to win impressivly, just as long as he keeps winning. I really wasn't suprised at all to see Patena finish off the board, he was getting more hype than he should have. Sorry IEAH, Dutrow, he isn't Big Brown. And finally Friesan Fire is putting the peices together! I don't think he's peaked yet either, the best has yet to come.

Wouldn't toss Giant Oak out just yet...closers had no shot on that track...especially one that is 19 hands or whatever....would  love to see Win Willy in a turf heat if he doesn't continue dirt success...his pedigree is outstanding for lawn...Pyro vs Friesen Fire   pedigree wise, I'm not that clever, but it seems their familys are pretty close, with Slew line on top and class mare line on bottom for both...arguement can be made for both. Lastly I thought Dominguez moved way to early.

Let's just hope that Dunkirk will give us some taste of Big Brown champion in FD, other than that, not very exciting field for the Derby :-( And Win Willy?? OMG,I wish him best but he reminds me of DaTara, this is just a recap from last year's Belmont...

from all the races seen over the past weeks, just one horse really stands out, and that is The Pamplemousse. that`s the only one that really pulles away effortless, even if he throws his legs across each other. never mind.

I agree with putting Friesan Fire at the top of the list based on yesterday's 3-yr-old stakes races. We still have over six weeks to the Derby, so there's still time for other horses to show me something. But right now, Friesan Fire appears to be the best 3-yr-old colt in the country.

A word about Rachel Alexandra (love that name). That was a classy win in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but I'm very glad at the news her connections will go for the Oaks and not the Derby. It's better for the filly.

HI JASON:

Great blog as usual. I don't think OF should be "thrown under the bus" for one defeat,I agree w/you regarding him. Also,I think Pioneer is tired and should just train up until the Derby. What do you think? Also,what you told R. regarding Win Willy is on point,he won't be a factor come Derby day. He can take it to the bank. PLease give your opinion about what I'm saying with Pioneer. I picked FF,so not suprised at all.

For those trying to downplay Win Willy's performance and excuse Old Fashioned's effort in the Rebel, remember that after a 46 first half, the second half was run in a shade under 52. OF had a breather, and still couldn't hold off a 56-1 shot. I won't discount him completely for Kentucky, because Jones hasnt really been asking him in the mornings, but suffice to say that OF and Ramon Dominguez need to perform much better in the Arkansas Derby. While I can't excuse OF for wilting in the stretch after a 52 second half, Dominguez should have never had OF so close to the pace being set by a horse that appeared in every way to be a sprinter.

As for Win Willy, he did come home his final sixteenth in six and two. However, he was closing into a 52 2nd half, so while he appeared to flying around the turn, the field was literally walking. I think Win Willy has some real potential,as reflected by his 102 Beyer, but I will need to see it again to be fully convinced.

Down in Louisiana, the only two horses that should run at Churchill the first weekend in May are Friesan Fire and Rachel Alexandra.  Friesan Fire ran another nice race, running an improved race for the third straight race. However, no one else in the field did any running. The Louisiana horses had been Beyering in the low 90s going into the La Derby, and they didnt improve at all on Saturday. Firesan Fire earned a 104 Beyer for the La Derby, meaning Papa Clem in 2nd received a 90-92 Beyer. Perhaps the wet-drying track affected some of the horses, but it seems like all the La Derby also-rans having going for them is excuses (see especially Giant Oak). The 104 Beyer for Friesan Fire demonstrates that he is continuing to improve, and is considerably faster than a horse like Pyro from last year. However, a 104 is not spectacular, showing that the 7 length+ winning margin was more the result of no one else running than FF freaking. Rachel Aelxandra ran the same time as FF earlier on the card, eased to a canter the final sixteenth by Calvin Borel. The Beyer guys concluded that for Rachel to run as fast as a male that won a $600,000 stakes by 7, the track must have slowed during the course of the day. So, Rachel only received a 99 for her La Oaks win.

The Tampa Bay Derby was not visually impressive, and the winning time was the same as the Tampa Bay Oaks a few races earlier. The Beyer came back 90 for both. The TB Derby horses may end up being decent sorts, but I have trouble believing the Kentucky Derby winner ran at Tampa Saturday.

Don't be too hard on Pioneer for not looking particularaly strong, or running very fast. Gomez asked him to do things he really doesnt want to do, yet he responded willingly and won rather easily in the end. Faces a huge pace disadvantage to The Paamplemouse in the SA Derby.

Anne, The track at Tampa was really fast on Saturday. Earlier on the card, the 3 year old filly, Dont Forget Gil, ran the same time as Musket Man when she won the Tampa Bay Oaks. The Beyer for Musket Man came back a 90, about 7 lengths slower than the 102 earned by Street Sense two years earlier.

I agree with Anne - I thought Musket Man ran a super race and deserves more respect.  I also think Pioneer of the Nile is a tired horse.

It's good to know Friesan Fire can handle an off track because it seems like we haven't had a totally dry Derby in years. I can't wait to see Theregoesjojo (what is the origin of that awful name!) in the Florida Derby & Chocolate Candy in the SA Derby.

Rachel Alexandra is the most impressive filly I have seen since Ruffian. Same running style...goes to the front and just pours it on and buries the field. There are three horses that I've seen over the years that come to mind who ran the fields into the ground on the lead as impressively as Rachel.....Ruffian, Dr. Fager and Dubai Millennium. Not bad company.

Her time Saturday was about the same as Friesan Fire. And while burying the field in the La. Derby he was kept to a steady hand ride to the wire, while she was pulled up 1/16 mile before the wire. Impressive indeed.

The feeling here is that she'll bury field the same way if she does in fact go in the Kentucky Oaks. The only way to have a chance to beat her is to enter a rabbit to wear her out. Sort of like what the trainer of Damascus did years ago to beat Dr. Fager...enter stablemate Hedevar. Without Hedevar, Fager trounced Damascus.  

Anyway, it appears to be a great year for the distaff side...Zenyatta, Proud Spell, Stardom Bound,Justwhistledixie and Rachel Alexandra.

Still prefer Jimmy Jerken's colt in the Derby...looking forward to the Florida Derby.

Things can change so quickly in the weeks leading to the big race.

It's so hard to predict anything at this point.  Some performances are one time things and some horses that have been consistent end up not being competitive in the Derby.  My feeling at this point is the top two contenders are Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy.  I do not want to discount Old Fashion at this point either.  I think he was just not ready for the Rebel.  I'm thinking that PON is not going to do well on dirt.  I could be wrong, of course, he could well take to it but there's just something about that horse that makes me think he won't have a chance in the Derby.

What I like about Friesan Fire is he can handle the slop and sometimes the Derby is run on the slop.  He moves well over it and has a nice way of going.  It was so much easier 20 years ago.  You knew it would either be Sunday Silence or Easy Goer and the Derby was run on the slop so my money was on Sunday Silence and he didn't disappoint.

I see Draynay is in the thick of things as always.  You have to love his posts!

pioneer of the nile is a great hate horse after that performance on saturday. i think gomez is hoping dunkirk will win because he has no shot on potn. the problem is dunkirk must win in the fla. derby he will not have the graded earnings and he has it tough with quality road and theregoesjojo.the top 5

1. quality road

2. theregoesjojo

3. friesan fire

4. dunkirk

5. desert party

Draynay, I don't care what Smooth Air has done in his career, my point this whole time is the field for last years Kentucky Derby was weak. This year is heading in the same direction. How do you keep missing that?!?!

Monica V,

Please don't encourage Draynay. It just makes him worse and seem more silly. lol

hey Guys

the only thing i really love coming out of this weekends preps is that, I might be getting a better price on Old Fashioned.

I think he ran really well, and showed allot heart.

From the start he was gunned to the lead and was allowed to  fallow a suicidal pace on a loose rein. ( I was fuming watching that race) They go 22 for the quarter, 46 for the half,i think he did really well to hold on that long,

I want to go out on a limb and say that he will get  1 mile 1/4 is.

I'm still keeping him at the top of my list.

Hey guys That Friesan Fire is really making me take a second look, I was just kinda looking passed him, but I think more attention is needed.

I was disappointed by the effort put in by Giant Oak. I really would like to see him on the 1st Saturday in May. He brings that level of potential that one just cant over look. I guess it's a numbers game now.

I was also thinking, there might be an influx of contenders at Oaklawn com next month. I'm guessing,Old Fashioned is looking vulnerable.

I don't think he is.

I think Dominguez is a smart enough guy to know that he can't use this horse up like that again.

Jason,

Any idea what Baffert is going to do with Zensational? You don't think he would dare send him to the Winstar Derby, do you? Although I'm assuming he's got Mayor Marv for that. Don't get me wrong, I think it's way too late for Zensational to jump on the derby trail. Perhaps the Swale or Bay Shore would work.  Thoughts?

  Jason... seems you had $50 on "Giant Oak"??? to win??? and I had $10 to win $40 to place on "Papa Clem" and we know who thusly had to pick up the dinner check !!!

  Now not to totally belittle "Musket Man", who is maturing right along at about the right time, or where I will have to now open my eyes up to “Win Willy”, who I’ll have to look at again and again and again in wonderment, all I did this weekend was get to drop the likes of a full hat-full of "Giant Oak" wannabes from my ‘watch list’ to my WHO CARES list! THE horse was unproven going in and still you wanted to waste $50 to win on him?  SORRY that I didn’t get to book the bet and NOT lay it off!!!  

  As to your top ten and others. First of all, “Desert Party” would have to overcome the dreaded ‘Dubai Drought’. THEN, there is his “Storm Cat” breeding, which makes him a total throw out no matter how he runs in the southern hemisphere, as he won’t figure in the Trifecta come Derby day!! “Old Fashioned”, whatever his excuse was that you want to make up for his Sat. ‘Rebel’ effort, where he proved he isn’t the next “Smarty Jones”, and where couldn’t even finish a  1  1/16 chasing fractions, therefore, he could never win the Kentucky Derby unless 8 horses had heart attacks in front of him!!! And yet you still want him to go 1 ¼ with a 5.22 dosage index?? And just WHY are you expecting no fractions in the Kentucky Derby??, all so that he can try the “Nolan’s Cat” TRIP??? It ain’t happenin’. As to “Theregoesjojo”, where was it ever written this horse could win at a 1  1/16 or even get to a 1  1/8 ???? FORGET a  1  ¼ !!

  Thusly, there are 3 horses that are competitors that will come out of Cal.--“Pioneerof the Nile”; “The Pamplemousse”; and “Chocolate Candy”… --yet, can any one of them overcome the “California Curse” on May the 2nd is their only question.

  “Friesan Fire” belongs on everyone’s list because he is truly now a proven factor. As he has the breeding to go long and has the whole package.  “I Want Revenge” and “Quality Road” have proven they belong in this bunch. Can they win against this bunch is the question? Of course, there are still the still green ‘young guns’, the up and comers, who appear to be: “Imperial Council”; “Papa Clem”; and “Dunkirk” and they all may well be ready in 6 weeks from now if they don’t screw up their respective earning’s routes, so watch out for each. “Terrain”, “Beethoven”, “West Side Bernie”, and “Break Water Edison” might near all make the card as they are all good stakes and Gr. III types and from their 2 year old campaign earnings from those efforts, etc., but none will be in anyone’s top 10 list come Derby Day. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet heard from “Charitable Man” and at this point I am wondering if we ever will.

    And, there are some damn fine young Turf horses who might make the switch in “El Crepso and “Sal the Barber”, etc. , whom one might want to keep an eye on.  Waiting on the likes of a “Nicandor” might take until after next year’s Derby, where he’ll be too old to enter!! And there is still a “Major Marv” type out there that might be the next to mature, but they are running mighty late! And even if they popped up at this point, are you really going to consider the next “Racecar Rhapsody” as your top Derby selection? “General Quarters”, the McCarthy feel good ‘National Velvet’ story of the year, looks like he really needed at least a 3rd over the weekend, where now he may unfortunately not make his earnings quota. And, who knows what Dutrow will now do with “Patena”. If he were mine, I would tell Rick to  start preparing him for the “Preakness”, which looks like a totally more logical path!!!

  Now which of those would you really bet on Derby Day 6 weeks in advance before seeing the Fla. Derby? the Wood? and  … oh hell we probably don’t even have to watch the Santa Anita Derby, do we??!!!  

  And, there is actually someone out there who bet on “Silver City” in the 2nd future pool????. Please don’t let him stand in front of me and between me and my teller on Derby Day!

  You get a 1 in 20 chance to get it right on Derby Day!!!  You don’t need a top ten list!!, because nine of those 10 won’t cross the line first! SO, all anyone needs to know, Jason, is, who is your absolute number one pick on Derby Day to get the $50 back that you lost on “Giant Causeway’s” son??? (…oh, is that Storm Cat breeding again !?!?!)

P.S. "Gaint Oak" and "Mr. Fantasy" IN YOUR DREAMS!!  I will pray for you that you don't have anymore such nightmares!

Tired horses, give me a break.What are these trainers doing to these horses with their training methods. A horse runs a race and gets 4 to 6 weeks off and he gets tired running the next race? They are off all that time eating and sleeping with a few works and they are  tired?Bring back the training mehtods the Iron horses had. This is ridiculous ,its not like horses are running weekly marathons! Build some stamina and edurance and Heart!

Musket Man, Win Willy, Old Fashioned.... LOL... I am so glad to hear people are going to be betting these horses in the Derby.  Lol... the smile on my face is ear to ear thinking of the wasted dollars going on these horses.  That is why the Derby is the best betting race of the year.  People that think horses like the above give us all better payouts when we go to the window to actually CASH our tickets.  I want to thank many of you in advance and my childs college fund thanks you too.  I will only say this once... TIMES MATTER... the fact that no east coast Derby contender has run a 1:11 or better at two turns matters !  Dunkirk runs a 1:37 mile in a allowance race and some have him in their top 5....huh?  Old Fasioned sat 3 lengths behind decent fractions and got cooked...why?  Friesan Fire runs a 104 Beyer and no other horse is with 5 lengths?  You think they couldn't handle that blazing 1:13.34 ?

Dray,

So when you say East Coast horse, you are including Imperial Councel, correct?

My thoughts:

TB Derby--Musket Man on his home-court just got up for the win.But I was more impressed with the runner-up Join In The Dance.First time on that quirky track,first time 2-turning and final time was solid.He's definitely improving and his next race should tell us if he's serious.GQ's bad break/trip cost him all chance of winning,that's his mulligan race.Look for a better showing next out. How about that "Synthetics horse" from Cali with a wide trip throughout finishing 3rd.lol  like I've said all along,the synth to dirt angle is WAY overblown.

San Felipe--POTN did what he had to do again,mission accomplished.It wasn't impressive but the race was paceless and he was game.He's a fighter for sure.Trust me he's not tired,he was bored down the lane when he found himself in a new predicament.He's much better when he has a target to chase.Solid.

The Rebel--Come on all you OF followers!No excuses please! He ran exactly the same race he did when winning the Southwest,exactly the same,..splits and all.He ran a winning race but just got caught. Look,he's a naturally high cruiser with his best asset being able to pull-away on the far turn and getting a jump on the closers/stalkers.He's Not gonna' kick it into another gear down the lane,he's steady.Winning Colors reincarnated.Win Willy just outran him,simple.This race @ 1 1/4miles will not bode well against some of the other Derby contenders.

LA.Derby--Friesan Fire is for real.I just think Mr.Jones should keep him on dirt where he's accustomed to being.Training him up to the Derby is not a bad idea.He's a Monster though!.Told you all about Papa Clem running 2nd.Again,proof that the Synth.-to-dirt angle is overblown.

Iron Horse I agree, the horses today can't compare to those from yesteryear.It's amazing to think that a horse like triple crown winner Citation ran 20 times as a 3 year old won 19 ran second once and didn't need 4 to 6 weeks off between races[ I'd suggest today's trainers read a book on how that trainer prepared his horse]. I don't get it with today's trainers and the mind set with training horses today for the big races. I'm not saying a horse should run like Citation[horse must have been in great shape] did but it seems that something has been lost in the training methods from the old days to this modern era.How did they train Kelso, John Henry. Forego to run so much and today 3 races to Derby is tops?A athelete needs to put in hard work many hours of training to bring out their best to compete. Seems like today its go back to the barn and watch tv while eating hay.The horses are pampered too much.Were the trainers of yesteryear so much better at preparing their horses -apprently so I believe.

I'm really disappointed that Aidan O' Brien isn't sending some of his horses to Kempton. In American terms the field is like an allowence field; the winner will be too weak to face the big guns in KY.

Jason are we going to change the name under the Triple Crown Blog? You'll have to come up with a big winner in the next month or your credibility will be in the toilet! lol.

2 Time,

I've read that instead of just putting in works into their horses back then, trainers would just run them to get them fit. Barry Abrams out west does that sometimes with his horses. He plans on doing that with Bel Air Sizzle who just ran Sunday to prep for this Sunday's Santa Ana. If the horse gets the money when you didn't really intend to then so be it. Let these horses roll!

This really does seem to be setting up for another lackluster field this year, validated by Saturday's card.  Outside of Rachel Alexandra, an uninspiring day.  POTN looked lethargic (despite the fact the feild and fractions were not optimal for him), Freisan Fire was the lesser of the evils, General Quarters and Hello Broadway are GR 3 horses, and the Rebel speaks for itself--56-1.  Obviously six weeks is an eternity with 3 year olds, but at this point I just keep going back to The Pamplemousse.  He just seems to be the best athlete of the bunch.  Works in bullets while changing leads, out of boredom, and impressive in all outings at a mile or more.  Tons of speed and should be able to last one more furlong.  If he can get the dirt, he should do well in the large field, where he can go with the speed and stay out of the mess.  Maybe Dunkirk is a star, but who knows at this point.  I would put more stock in him if Warrior's Reward (who he beat 4 lengths) had shown up Saturday.  My thought is if they do as they say and point Rachel Alexandra toward the Oaks, there isn't too much to get excited about.

Rock, Zensational is going to Sunland Derby(?) Mar. 28 - I guess no grade but 800k purse...so he is not on Derby trail - but Gomez might go to NM to ride him.

Sorry Rock I got the date of Sunland Derby wrong - it is Mar. 29. Baffert could change his mind but why leave the winner's share of 800k on the table?

Baffert does not seem to concerned about the Pamplemousse.  After all he trained his daddy not too long ago.  I think it is time to project how many "dirt horses" will not like Churchill.  Papa Clem seemed to manage well on dirt, just over matched.  I'm still waiting for this synthetic to dirt disaster to happen. I still don't see any advantage to taking a horse back in distance after they've routed.  Did OF think he was running a mile again?  He was done.   Still not convinced that FF could top the West's top 3.  He does fit in though based on his performance against Papa Clem who is only two starts off his maiden.  He certainly is second/third sting Cali along with Fiesty Suances.  Look for that one to now find a spot back east as well.

Thank you Brettzky99 the pamelmousse is the best horse out of the bunch and will expose everyone on may 2nd. Synthetic to dirt is overblown and once The pamelmousse destroys the field in the SA derby he will be ready to roll May 2nd.

Jeff, FLAT OUT was supposed to go in the Rebel but his trainer decided to train him up to the Arkansas Derby. I like in him in that race too.

Jason..MY MAN!!  I don't see the logic in you having Theregoesjojo,Imperial Council and certainly Desert Party ahead of I Want Revenge on your list. None of them have won at 2-turns,let alone a route Stakes race.IWR would crush them at the moment,at any distance..no doubt.

Hear me now,believe it later...Imperial Council WILL NOT make-up 8+ lenghths on I Want Revenge in the Wood.No Way! Unless IWR takes a drastic step backwards,there's no chance in hell. Mullins said IWR wasn't even blowing after the Gotham and his work this weekend in :58 flat is proof that he's going in the right direction. The only negative going into the Wood is him not being able to stay in NY like Mullins planned on,because of License issues.So he'll have to ship IWR in for the Wood again.

Rachel A. looks pretty good against the 3rd tier horses she's been beating-up on.But,then again so did Haynesfield,remember him? I'm just saying!

I'm gonna do everyone a favor this year and save all the guessing and give you this years Derby Winner, sans an injury. It will be 'The Pamplemousse' over 'Imperial Council' in a tight photo. I know it's early however I think after the SA Derby & Wood, we'll all know more. Remember the Wood and SA Derby are only 'preps'. Solis is over due to win a Derby. Shug will win a Derby, however I don't think it'll be this year. Don't thank me now, Thank me after the Derby. Your welcome! :)

Rock,

Sorry about encouraging Draynay but you have to admit that his confidence in himself is really fun to read since most everyone disagrees with him.  Seems we have another on here who thinks they know everything.

I've been following the races since I was a kid back in 1965.  That's 44 years and in all that time I've learned that it doesn't matter how much you study pedigree, racing styles, jockeys, trainers, racetracks and everything else, it's just never a sure thing. The opening of that gate can cause ruination many times, or a misstep or the weather or any number of things.  We all know that.  It's people who can study everything, make sense of it and have the little extra inner-feeling that makes them good handicappers.  You have to go with the gut feeling even if common sense tells you you're wrong.  It's lots of fun but you just can't take yourself too seriously.  Everyone has a different take on almost everything and it's interesting to read but you have to go with your own feelings.  Sometimes just looking at a horse in the saddling area can give you that feeling.  It's chance and that's what makes it fun.

I guess we're all contributing to Draynay's kid's college fund!  

Jason, your list is interesting. Here is my take on the contenders:-

Friesan Fire – I would appreciate you could provide the correct time for the mile in the LA derby. It was listed as 1:33 plus. This obviously is incorrect as the 6 furlong split was 1:13.34. It therefore means the next 2 furlongs were run in 20 seconds. Friesan Fire deserves to be #1 but his profile does not fit that of a derby winner. This may have no significance but to date, no derby winner’s first and second dams have earned $600K and $1.5M respectively. Derby winning broodmares are usually well bred relatively low earners. In addition this, the Churchill Downs track will not be kind to his funky action. Something is wrong with the alignment of this horse.

PioneerOf The Nile/Old Fashioned – They carry the burden of the dismal record of great grandsons of Mr. Prospector as derby sires. No great grandson of the great stallion is on the derby board. It is unlikely these two will break through as both are overrated. Mr. Prospector sons and grandsons are better derby sire accounting for eight winners so far.

Theegoesjojo – I like this colt. He is unlikely to win as a Danzig stallion sired the 2008 winner. He carries the burden of Seattle Slew’s dismal record as a derby broodmare sire. There has been only one winner of a TC race from a SS broodmare so far. He passed tire horses in the Fountain of Youth and QR looked to be in a different league. Bold Ruler sons sire the three consecutive derby winners; Hyperion sons sire winners two consecutive years. That era has long passedi.  Danzig was no part of the aforementioned two stallions. How do you justify Jojo at #4 and Quality Road at #9.

Imperial Council – January foal like Old Fashioned, Dunkirk and Beethoven. I never fancy a January foal for the derby. IC is older than most and has only made four starts. I am no expert but, it appears he has soundness issues. Beating tired horses off slow fractions does reflect serious derby potential. Ranked much too high.

The Pamplemousse – The Blushing Groom sire line is not on the derby board but I would not be deterred by this fact. Giacomo got the Ruff N’ Tumble line on the board. I like this colt. He certainly deservers a higher ranking.  Interestingly, he has the same third dam as Imperial Council ‘Special Warmth’

Desert Party – I love his colt but he carries the burden of the dismal record of the Storm Cat broodmare line. To date broodmares sired by Storm Cat and his sons have not produced a winner of a Triple Crown race. This is the reason I ruled out No Biz in 2007 and I am doing the same thing with Hello Broadway in 2009. Sadly, I will have to rule this colt out as well..

I Want Revenge – I like this colt. However, he carries the burden of his trainer’s failure in the big race. How can a trainer win three consecutive SA Derby and none of those winners were even able occupy the last slot on the derby board?  No wonder he want revenge. The last Bold Ruler line horse to sire a derby winner was TC winner Seattle Slew. I think twenty four years is long enough.

Quality Road – Fits the profile of past derby winners perfectly. Sire by a grandson the Mr. Prospector – They have sired three of the last six derby winners. His dam is well bred and lightly raced. In fact, her record reflects zero earnings. Somethingroyal dam of the great Secretariat had zero earnings. QA dam sire Strawberry Road was also dam sire of the champion 2YO Vindication was Australian HOY and champion older horse in Germany. His sire Elusive Quality is one of just a handful of stallions that have achieved the Derby and Breeders Cup Classic double. I am amazed you have him ranked at #9 when he has been far more impressive than #3 4 & 5. It’s your blog and you are allowed a do over.

Chocolate Candy – I like this colt. However, he carries the burden of Seattle Slew’s dismal record as a derby broodmare sire. In fact, the great TC champion has only one broodmare that has produced a winner of a TC race. He appears to be too slow to win the derby. Unless there is pace meltdown similar to the one that helped Gaicomo, he has no chance. NB: None of the modern day TC winners have been broodmare sire of a derby winner. However, they are all broodmare sire of Breeders Cup Classic winners.

Jason, I am happy to see that Dunkirk is not included in your top ten. Why have you dismissed the winner of the Rebel? I am not jumping on his bandwagon but I think he will enjoy 10 furlongs. His dam line is loaded with derby winning broodmare sires. His dam was sired by Carson City who also sired the dam of 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His second dam was sire by Storm Bird who was broodmare sire of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch. His fourth dam was sired by Hail To Reason whose son Stop The Music was broodmare sire of  2005 Derby winner Giacomo.

He was sired my Monarchos whose winning time for the derby is only bettered by that of Secretariat. Only three winner of the Derby have sired a derby winner in the last 45 years. The last derby winner to sire the winner of the great race was Unbridled. He sired 1996 winner Grindstone. Certainly this feat is overdue and I think this horse though lightly raced has the pedigree for the derby distance. The six furlong race he won prior to the Rebel was run in 1:11 and change. He clearly is no sprinter but if capable running six furlongs in 1:11, he can clearly stay close to the leaders in the derby. His enormous amount stamina can take him to victory over suspect group going10 furlongs.

If the goal was to win the Rebel Stakes then Larry Jones did a terrible training job, if the goal is to win the Kentucky Derby then this was the perfect prep. It was the same type of race his father ran in the Fountain of Youth he was rank, Mike Smith was too concerned with the speed and after he wore them down he never saw Home Builder on the far outside. Ramon did the same and Old Fashion never saw the winner, mark my words you will see a different horse in the Ark Derby he will win by many, and if Larry lets the horse guide hem He will be a WINNER ON THE FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY.

Householder:  Friesan Fire is WAY better than Lively One..I mean Chocolate Candy,who I consider belongs in the 2nd string from Cali. He's a hard hitting plodder that picks-up checks,nothing special.

10)Imperial Council-->Honestly,he's here by default:the rest have less of a shot,that's all.

9)Beethoven-->Don't laugh! John Ward is still high on him,Fla.Derby will be his break-out race,watch. He's no Giant Oak(more hype than anything),I'll tell ya'.

8)Theregoesjojo-->He still has to prove that he can route/2-turn. Ability is there.

7)Quality Road-->See above.

6)Flat Out-->Disappointed he wasn't in the Rebel,the way it played-out I'm sure he would've been right there at the end.AK.Derby will prove he belongs in the KY.Derby.Needs to be cranked-up now.

5)Old Fashioned-->Has done nothing wrong,just the fact that his high cruising speed doesn't allow him to switch gears down the lane,which makes him vulnerable to real stretch runners.

4)The Grapefruit-->Waiting to see if he's like OF or just a Freak.If he's not pressured in the SA Derby,kiss him goodbye.

3)POTN-->Again,done nothing wrong.Just wins Baby! Much better when he has targets to chase.

2)& 1)Toss-up between:

Friesan Fire-->Folks he's the Real Deal here! Getting good at the right time,and distance won't be a problem.He's a STUD! Good tactical speed is a plus in his arsenal. Anybody that down-plays his accomplishments are Fools! This Boy can straight-out Boogie.

I Want Revenge-->We know he's a Monster on dirt.Distance should be no problem either,and also has good tactical speed to go along with his stretch kick.He'll have to ship cross country again for the Wood Memorial,but so what.I don't see anybody in his league in NY right now.And like FF is still improving...Scary!!

Bobbie H: where you at?...

i find draynays first post to be quite ridiculous, i only read the first line before bursting out in laughter and couldn't read anymore. pioneer and old fashioned are tired horses? hahahaha it is unreal how people that follow this game can have such a misinformed opinion. we arent talking about old broken down mules on the dairy farm draynay, we are speaking of the best of the best race horses trained by the best of the best trainers. just because old fashioned couldn't hold off a no name going 1 and 1/16 after chasing a 22 flat opening 1/4 doesnt mean that hes a tired horse, rather he got tired in the race and perhaps regressed off his last race. and pioneer was purely playing withh his competition, as you would expect, another empire maker colt with some maturing to do. im expecting even money on old fashioned as an absolute GIFT next time out, pioneer of the nile perhaps running a dismal 2nd or 3rd and rebounding to win the ky derby. just a prediction, and while everyone is entitled to their opinion, saying those two horses are "tired" is real funny.

Rachel Alexandra " Medaglio on top, Arch on bottom. "... I do not see Arch anywhere in the pedigree,

Roar, Cure the Blues, Lord Gaylord, Chieftain, Raise A Native, etc.

Larry Jones double in the Derby ~ smartest horseman going!!

I love Freisan Fire and have beleived in him since the day I read that Larry Jones said F.F. was the best horse he had ever trained. The only thing that is a little disturbing to me is reading that Larry may train him up to the Derby. I feel that is a bit too long but then Larry is the trainer and he knows his horses capabilities better than I.

My other Derby interest is Imperial Council. The Wood will let us know know about his true potential. Hoping to see a big run from him in that race. Still a little leary of the Cali-Poly track horses. Just don't care for that fake dirt, not convinceing for me.

Win Willys owners should have taken the 3 million bukcks and said thanks suckers. Even though I liked Monarchos I don't think that horse has a prayer in the Derby. One stunning win and everyone seems to jump on the bandwagon. Not for me I'll stick with the proven horses.

Win Willie, another grey horse. I'll bet Monarchos old connections are watching this horse. May be too late for the derby but who knows? Strange things happen

i have one thing to say. this year anyone could pop up between now and derby time. heck there could be two to three win willy's by then. I don't know if he is better than old fashioned but i was there and wish old fashioned would have put up a little fight rather than get passed standing still regardless of everyone's fraction times and quit complaining about him chasing silver city's fractions. rachel alexander in the martha washington was the best 1 mile race i have seen at op in 20 years and i want everyone to look back at the greats to run 1 mile since then

jeff1961 flat out did not run because of a heel bruise. he should run in the ar derby.he is a good,long striding horse

Slew ... we know what you're saying your just not saying a lot.  Will Imperial Council make up 8 lengths? Magically I believe he will. Shug simply sent him out last time to get his first two turn experience.  He will be up near the pace next time and will love the added distance.  Look for him to win the Wood and set himself up nicely for the Derby. But should the horse you like move forward and post a 115 Beyer...I think it will be easy to pick the winner the first Saturday in May. However take a look at the Gulfstream Park Handicap G2 300k run last Saturday and won by SMOOTH AIR.  Notice the splits and finishing time run by older experienced horses.  Now watch the Fountain and notice the splits and finishing time.  Look how EASY Quality Road ran those splits.  If he improves off that race and wins the Florida Derby like I think he will ... we will have a monster coming into the Derby 3rd off a layoff.

op20yrs. i was there too. her name is rachel alexandra.get the name right.

Monica V... don't worry I like you I will give you the Derby winner 3 days before the Derby so you will not be adding to the fund.  Steven... Old Fashioned did not run a 22 flat...he was behind a 22.54 and a 46.07 solid fractions but not blazing for a 1 1/16th.  His mile time was a VERY slow 1:38.09... the horse is simply not built for 1 1/4.  Pioneer of the Nile has run NUMEROUS times at a 1 1/16th and I see no improvement.  He looked tired against average company and the thought of him having to run down Pampelmousse and then having to run down 19 horses in the Derby a few weeks later... nope sorry don't see it.  Imperial Council, Quality Road, Desert Party, and I Want Revenge are much more likely.  Pioneer and Old Fashioned are very nice horses but have no real shot in the Derby.

Jason, I agree I have highlighted the negtives associated with most on your list. However, I did make it quite clear which colt I think will be the likely winner. The extract below will confirm:

Quality Road – Fits the profile of past derby winners perfectly. Sire by a grandson the Mr. Prospector – They have sired three of the last six derby winners. His dam is well bred and lightly raced. In fact, her record reflects zero earnings. Somethingroyal dam of the great Secretariat had zero earnings. QA dam sire Strawberry Road was also dam sire of the champion 2YO Vindication was Australian HOY and champion older horse in Germany. His sire Elusive Quality is one of just a handful of stallions that have achieved the Derby and Breeders Cup Classic double. I am amazed you have him ranked at #9 when he has been far more impressive than #3 4 & 5. It’s your blog and you are allowed a do over.

QR is the better bred, bigger and stronger of the two. I cannot see Jojo beating this horse ever again. It appears Elusive Quality is turning out to be the next great stallion from the Raise A Native line.

I left comments on feb 26 that Old Fashioned had a dossage index of over 5 & woulf finish way up the track @ 1 1/4 ON DERBY DAY...that was a tired horse with no excuse at only 1 1/16th with a nobody field & a clear lead.If Larry was leaving something in the tank he sure left alot.....I think I hear all the bandwagon jumpers jumping back off with their tickets on fire to boot...

Jason, I must confess your quote below accurately describe my assessment policy.

"I think you put too much stock in your pedigree stats"

I will favor a colt with proven ability whose sire recorded a WR for a mile and has sired a Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner over one whose sire was average on the track and has no proven record as a sire.

O.k. I have read all the posts here and I think Slew.em.All has it right.I also like the Papplemousse.

Slew em all.  We are still calling IWR ours (West).  The top 3 would be of course IWR, Pamp, and Pioneer.  FF fits well with these.  I do like Lively One...Chocolate Candy training up to the Santa Anita Derby on just works.  He, not the Pamplemousse, is the most likely to head Pioneer.  This will not be a surprise based on the CASH CALL and now the additional distance of the SA Derby will be to his advantage.  The Pamp as a target makes this all the more plausable.  MONICA V.  Had that "feeling" as they saddled Sunday Silence for the Santa Anita Derby against Lukas' 3 million dollar wonder horse Houston.  I know what your talking about.

The Pamplemousse obviously has some high cruising speed ala Cherokee Run and there is a little stamina in there with Hatchet Man (Strike the Gold's daddy).  But don't we see one of these every year?  (Recapturetheglory).  Someone is going to have to push him the last 1/8 of the Kentucky Derby.  He may steal the SA Derby (much like Bob Black Jack almost did) but I'm not sure what this will mean.

Derby lists, debates, speculation.... its still a long way to the first Saturday in May when nearly all of these comments will be nothing more than dust in the wind.  Friesian Fire is the only horse that to me has a definate edge on anyone else at this point.  Give it a few more weeks and everyones lists and favorites will scramble once again.  I think the best race coming up might be Rachel Alexandria vs Stardom Bound if they both end up in the Oaks!

Why are we suddenly putting so much emphasis on the Wood?  Secretariat lost the Wood behind Sham who equaled the track record in the Santa Anita Derby prior to the Wood.  I think Fusaichi Pegasis also did some fantastic running out west prior to his Wood Win.  Hmm...IWR is stabled where?  

Jason,

At the end of your last post were you trying to say that naysayers were saying the pedigrees of Smarty, FC and BB prevented them from winning the Derby? If so, good point. If not, I have no idea what your last post meant.

It wasn't that long ago when Elusive Quality was considered a sire of sprinters and milers. We heard that non-stop about Big Brown last year with Boundary. Now we hear that about Musket Man because he was sired by the great grandson of Blushing Groom (Yonaguska).

I do not know if Musket Man will ever win past 1-1/16 miles, but his form has already outrun his close-up pedigree and reflects the hard nose distance runners and sires found deeper (3-5 back) in his pedigree. His final 5/16ths in that Tampa stakes race was well under 32 seconds and his final 1/16 was in 5.85 seconds. The horse he caught, JITB, ran a strong race on the pace and ran his final 1/16th in 6.52 seconds (about the same that SS and AGS ran their race).

So, I would agree with those who were impressed by either horse. We will have to see their next race to see if they have a legit shot at Churchill Downs in May. But, stranger things have happened. Before Secretariat, Bold Ruler was known as the sire of speed and sprinters. To the poster who stated we never know until the run the race, how true.

I believe Gun Bow posted that the Oaks winner ran the same time and got a 90 BSF. True. But the track was NOT particularly fast Saturday. and you failed to note that this same filly set the stakes record with her time in the Oaks. The reason that Street Sense and AGS received so much higher of a Beyer for running a similar time is NOT because SS ran on a substantially slower track. No, GunBow, surely you know that Beyer makes adjustments to the final figure to bring the BSF more in line with the BSFs of the winner and 2nd place finisher in a particular race. In awarding SS that 102 BSF, a huge factor came in an upward adjustment from approx 93 raw BSF fig to factor in the prior races that AGS and SS had ran in (both in excess of 100 BSF). I still have the article from DRF from 2007 that explains this. The raw BSFs from the 2007 TBD and the 2009 TBD are pretty similar.

And while I would agree that one 1-1/16 mile win does not mean much, it certainly means more than NO wins at 1-1/16 miles, wouldn't it? The name of the game is to win or run well and accumulate graded earnings. These wait til next race types never seem to quite get there.

Jerry,

     OF does have excuses, not a lot, but yes some. One Ramon moved on him way too soon after chasing the speedy SC on a heavy track, which OF clearly disliked. Ramon got cocky and thought he had that race in the bag, which was not the case. Also Jones did not have this colt ready for his peak effort off of only one five furlong work. Jones probably thought the same thing we all did, which was this was a weak field and i've beaten most of the horses already, so i don't need him cranked for a top effort. Well, like us all i'm sure he was surprise Win Willy, who in my opinion is a one race wonder, ran the race of his life. This horse may not be at the top of my list any more, but i can garuntee you i'm not jumping off after only one loss, which is still better than some others on the Derby trail. This horse still has one more race before the Derby and will have a rematch with Win Willy, and i have no doubt that with a much better ride he'll be there at the wire in his old winning fashion

Jason, I am not sure I understand your statement below -

"Didnt they say Smarty could win the Derby? Funny Cide? Big Brown?"

Did you actually mean to state  'couldn't win'

If that is the case, then those who made those statements have no knowledge of the profile  of derby winners. Smarty&Funny Cide were both sired by grandsons of Mr. Prospector. They have only sired five of the last 13 winners and 3 of the last six. Their dams are from proven broodmare lines. Smile the sire of Ill Get Along is a son of In Reality whose son Believe It was dam sire of 1998 winner Real Quiet.  I give Slewacide, sire of Belle's Good a low rating because of Seattle Slew's dismal record as a derby broodmare sire. However BB had to be favored as he is inbred to Northern Dancer in his 3rd generation similar ot Belmont winner Touch Gold. His dam is from one of the most successful broodmare lines in derby history. Northern damcer's sons & gransdons have been broodmare sire of 17 of the last 39 winners of TC races. In fact, his sons went back to back in 2007-2008.

Sadly I am guided by history as the winner's pedigree profile is most time consistent with those of the past.

Elway,

Talking to nay nay is like talking to a brick wall. He will never "get" that when people talk about last years weak Derby runners thay mean those who showed up that day and how bad they were then only. He keeps spouting smooth air but on Derby day last year smooth air finished way up the track. That day smooth air was pathetic. nay nay has said recently give him a horse who runs certain fractions and he that would be your derby winner but when The Pamplemousse runs those fractions he dismisses them as a joke. Then he changes his tune to show me a horse east of the Mississippi who has run those fractions. The little dude can't keep his own mind straight. It's best to ignore him or make fun of him like he does most everyone else.

Draynay-Do you have some psychic information from above that your just not telling us about?  I'd think everyone writing in would like to be hooked up to it if you are.  You know, times are tough, and we'd all like to make some quick easy bucks

pedigree..an important factor, but with breeders leaning toward speed pedigree,stamina ped is getting thinner every year. This may be part of the training puzzle, where methods have changed becaus the pedigree[s] won't allow. All the runners mentioned above ie; Kelso,John Henry and Forego...yes they had different race schedules, but they were geldings..apples and oranges. JS your pedigree analysis makes sense, but then you could say that about any handicap method that over emphasises a particular mode. I think Quality Road is in very capable hands, and the connections[including low key Mig] have been very impressed with this colts intelligence/ability from the start...he will be a good one.

I say again horses can't read. How many times have you seen them outrun their pedigree Jason?

If I were Larry Jones I'd pull Ramon off Old Fashioned so quick "his head would spin".  Thought Ramon was much better than what we saw on Saturday.  Ramon thought he had the race won down the stretch, fell "asleep" and was galloping the colt out, when Willy went by like a frieght train.  Watch the race 2 or 3 more times and I think you'll agree.

Draynay, I do believe you promised never to handicap another race if Fresian Fire won.  So why are you still here?

Jason: Regarding your response to M PALMER and COLDFACTS, remember how effusive you were about Mr Fantasy after just two starts in which he beat NOTHING.  Well this colt Win Willy just clobbered your alternative to Mr Fantasy, Old Fashioned and he has enormously more Derby pedigree credentials therefore, how is it reasonable for you to count him as a throw-out to win the Derby.  Your logic beats me.  I grant you the right to be skeptical based upon just one race on an off track but if you look objectively at that Rebel you'll see that this horse's explosive and sustained finishing burst is about talent, bearing in mind that he is a lightly raced 3YO(unknown even to his connections).

Jason it is not so much about picking the Derby winner right now.  It is your THROW-OUT comment regarding Win Willy in contrast to your views on Mr Fantasy and Old Fashioned that's illogical.  For me, right now Win Willy is #3 on my forcast list behind Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra(assuming her connections will be roasting with Derby fever soon).

i lost a lot of respect for old fasion this weekend i dont know where to go to for the derby but i do know this that ramon should be ashamed of himself you do not use a horse up so that he has nothing down the streach i think that he got a little over confident and now the question ihave to ask myself is that can old fasion really handle a mile and 3/16ths  for those nay sayers out there are laughing because even if maniges t win the derby and the preakness there is no way he can beable to hadle a mile and a 1/4 at belmont park now as for the top 10 derby horses for the week i think that you have the wrong one on top i think it should it should be quality road and i want revenge because after what i saw i want revenge do on the 7th of march with joe talmo he has an excelent shot of winning the derby and in practice on on sunday he ran 59 sec flat on the dirt track in hollywood which a lot of people said couldnt run on dirt because he is a california horse i find that rediculus that a horse nobody has talked about is chef for those of you who dont know who chef is he won the race on valentines day by 6and a half points i hope he runs in the florida deby for that matter i also find it rediculus that some people think win willy wont be in the kentucky derby i bet alot of you didnt know this but in the articul in the ketucky derby website that that was his first race of the year and he already has 260 points from that race so i think he isnt just a one hit wonder but we will find out in a few weeks as for ramone on old fasion i think they should think about a different jockey i wouldnt say that 7 weeks before the derby but something has to change but i really dont think (pardon for saying this but ) he should have been in that race. he had enough point anyway for the derby before the weekend but if your objective was the arkansas derby why didnt you just go for that instead of mesing around with the robel stakes the only reason why they did that and no one will tell me differently was that silver city was in that race was to prove a piont that he was better than silver city and now it cost them in a big way because are sure to lose confidence in that horse as for ieah stables i knew that situation wasnt going to work for one thing they have the wrong horse set up for the deby anyway i thin it should be stardome bound and i dont care if they think the last win want that impressive and i think that they are talking out of both side of their mouths one min it the kentucky derby the next its the ketucky oaks and they say that was objective all along no it wasnt it the wouldnt have broght it up if that was the case. when all boils down to now they dont think she is good enough because she didnt anileate the feild in her last race and they dontwant the same thing to happento stardome bound that happen to eigh bells i think she is a great horse and it is too bad they put her in a race with reachel alexander because i think she would be better suited for the kentucky derby and people are going to look at that and say well she is undefeated ofcourse reachel alexander is a better horse that is why i think it would be better off trying to make history with a horse with stardombound this year because i dont think that eight bells was good enough last year to win the race becasue she didnt have enough stamina to win the race and i think that stardome bound is more than capable she has already won 5 grade 1 races and has already been around the block i honestly think they are trying to take the easy way out they have already won the derby with big brown so they migh be thinking who cares whe have been there before and we know sheis a decent horse but we wont give it a shot because we have already been down that road and here is a hint to micheal if you dont want people to talk about it and sick of answering questions about it quit bringing it up he said and i quote it is up to her trainer no it is not he owns that horse he bought her it is up to him and be sides that i have never known a horse to have 2 different trainers pick one and stick with it!    

gw_bushwacker what are you talking about?  Yes, Pamplemousse is going to win the Santa Anita Derby. Yes he is the best horse in California.  NO he is not going to win the Derby.  When was the last time the Santa Anita winner won the Derby ?  You can narrow it down to 4 right now and until you see workouts the weeks before at Churchill I doubt if you can narrow it down to one.

1. Quality Road looks like a monster. If he wins the FD it will be hard not to choose him for the win.

2. Desert Party ... if he wins the UAE for his 3rd win in a row he will be my choice if the track comes up wet.

3. Imperial Council and I Want Revenge. I believe the winner will be Imperial but if I Want Revenge pulls off another impressive performance I will have to see his works at Churchill.

4. There are NO OTHER horses in the country as good as the 4 listed above.  Who wins the other prep races just DOESN'T matter.  My case in point.  Watch Old Fashioned in his last race again and notice that he ran a very slow mile 1:38 !  Notice that the rest of the field was way back and running a 1:40 mile !!!! Those are Derby contenders ??? Maybe some of you should go back and Watch the Florida Derby last year and watch the splits a real horse can run.

I find it very strange that so many are ignoring the spectacular beyer that IWR had. If he runs anywhere near that in the Derby he wins easily. The added distance in the derby is a factor but IWR should be near the top of everyones list at this point, no?

OK, My first post long and well thought out, was nixed because I took offense to my thoughts of Dray's lack of knowledge-which actually is fine if he wasn't so outlandish on his comment and was a little to graphic on my thoughts of it---the first post on top. ---This one is out of place and would have been the second one. In retrospect I might have been out of bounds.

I wrote a quick similar part about Win Willy on another one. here it is rather than the more in depth one.

Thanks for not saying Win Willy's win was a fluke as other have on different blogs. I am not changing my early FF pick or have reasons to yet, but in my opinion Win Willy is now a contender. Yes, Old Fashion chased a fast pace and the fractions were quick but this time he got no fight from Silver and went right by. My opinion only--but if he O.F. is supposed to be good enough to win the KY Derby he should have been good enough to hold on regardless. Your comment of not seeing the other horse has merit but he appeared tired before entering the stretch in my eyes. Ramon can not be accused of falling asleep on him--he never stopped asking.

The thought in my mind is maybe Win Willy is really a nice horse--unbeaten on the dirt, lightly raced, with a trainer that supported a 27% win ratio last year if I am not mistaken.  He just may be for real. If he runs back in the AR Derby I know who I am betting and hope others believe it is a fluke and I get 5-1 or better. I was impressed with him coming off a 5 1/2 and 6f races with a no-show turf between--going 2 turns really for the first time if you throw out the bad turf race---impressive.

I wouldn't have bet a nickel before---but things change. Gamblers adapt or die.

As for Dray's Imperial Counsel rants and other rants knocking nice horses maybe he has been listening to the divinyls and following Christine's mantra a little too much--- but everyone has an opinion--and unlike him I can be wrong. The optional 40's, if they were, which I doubt finished 8 lengths behind Old Fashion not in front of him-I am right without question there- I still think it too early to solidify my KY Derby choice although if you look at a previous post I did give the tri out on the LA Derby for almost $400 (I really bet-and not past-posting and actually if you followed my advice you had the tri twice not once) and have no reason after that race to pick another as #1--but I am open as there is still Dunkirk and crew in FL along with some other nice horses and the CA pack--Should he win I would let Ron Anderson tell me who is better of him and the Pioneer-

Although Pioneer's win wasn't pretty he does nothing but win lately, so to disregard it is crazy. Plus to note, he might not be the best horse in the state. Either top filly would join the ranks if they changed their plans.

Win willy is top 5 or 6 now ahead of Old Fashion on my list.

Paula Higgins:

Obviously, you're a very bright and astute Woman..a member of MENSA I take it?--- :) boo-yah!

    I still can't believe people are knocking Friesan Fire.  What more does the horse have to do?  He's peaking at the right time and don't forget he's an AP Indy, which means he will get better with age.  Jones seems to think he may be the most talented horse he's ever trained and considering the man has finished 2nd in the last 2 Derbies with a couple nice horses, I would not leave this horse out of my tickets on Derby day provided he actually makes it to the starting gate.  The only other horse from the LA Derby that I would look to possibly have an impact on Derby day is Terrain.  I don't like him to win the Derby, but you have to give him another chance.  He'll probably run in the Bluegrass next and he's already had a nice 2nd place finish to Square Eddie over the track.  He was making his 1st start off a 3 month layoff in the LA Derby and ran a pretty good 3rd all things considered.  Don't forget he was running very respectable against horses many considered some of the best 2 year olds last year.  He could be tri / super exotics buster on Derby Day.

    As far as Pioneer of the Nile is concerned, I don't think he's a tired horse.  I think he has just peaked and won't move forward like horses have to do this time of year to win the Derby (kind of like Stardom Bound in her last).

    As far as last weekend as a whole, the only horse who impressed me at all as a possible Derby winner was Friesan Fire.  I still don't think they have gotten to the bottom of him yet and he has more room for improvement.  I'm not picking him to win the Derby, but he has to be one of the top 3 or 4 at this point.

    I agree Jason that picking a Derby winner in March is a big mistake.  Remember, they have to make it to the starting gate before they have a chance to win it.  Handicapping the race now is useless especially with so many of the major preps still yet to be run.

    My last thought, please don't knock Win Willy.  Is he a legit Derby contender?  Who knows, but I do know a good horse can come from anywhere.  Just because his connections didn't pay a ridiculous amount of money for him at auction or his connections aren't what many consider to be top notch doesn't mean the horse can't run.  Remember the Green Monkey?  What a bust he was.  I agree we need to see the effort repeated before considering him as a legit Derby contender, but don't we need to see that from just about all horses?  Honestly, think about it, if Dunkirk didn't sell at auction for $3+ million or he didn't have those connections would anybody truly be considering him as a FL Derby favorite right now let alone a KY Derby favorite?  If they paid $3 million for Win Willy and he was trained by Pletcher and owned by Tabor and Smith with Gomez or Velazquez as a jockey many people would be considering him the favorite for the AR Derby right now and a serious Derby contender.

Why are people still making excuses for OF? He ran exactly the same race he did in the Rebel. Dominguez didn't move too soon,it was the sprinter Silver City that was backing-up which made it seem like a premature move by the jockey.He had no choice but to go on with it considering OF typically scoots-away from his competition on the turn for home anyways. Also,If a horse dislikes a certain track's surface(heavy,muddy,wet,hard,etc..),you will notice it right away and they won't run as good as OF did.

Jason--ask Ranagulzion,M.Palmer and Coldfacts who they pegged to win the Derby preps by way of their "Pedigree Profile" analysis..I know for a fact that none of their picks came thru.I'll use one of your lines: "pedigree is not the end all be all"..oh!man! I can't believe I just went there.  I'm Out!

MR. Shandler calling you on your statement/bluff. What odds will you give me on Win Willy right now?

As in many posts I don't just talk I put my money where my mouth/keyboard is.

Give me a fair price and I/we will deposit some money in a neutral bank--I pay so I expect others to and unlike where I was before moving---I have no enforcers here---trust me you didn't stiff me in past past with my friends.The Racetrack makes strange bedfellows. I still remember a client of Frankie Merrill's called R.G. because of problems posting his real name, always would come to the barn with 2 bodyguards who were packing. I liked it because he would always stake the barn help when his horses won.

Don't love him, but it is a live shot--at what is now should be a huge price still. I'll check Vegas lines. What's more, I will call your bluff. I was very impressed with his race.

Finding some people with less past performances than the horses they pick making comments they shouldn't be that cocky.

Dare was made and I am replying--even if it wasn't to me.  Sorry -Ran-- call him on it if he won't take my money.

nay nay,

Just look at what you just said. In one breath you say you can narrow it down to 4 but can't narrow it down to one until you see the workouts at CD the week before the Derby. Then in the next breath you state that if Desert Party wins the UAE and the track comes up wet he's your choice (and that statement does not include watching his works at CD). You can't even make up your own mind on where you stand, why not live up to your word and do not handicap another race in your life since FF won. All your back and forth gibberish and flip-flopping from one argument to another is a joke.

Matt H.---You mentioned Chef in your post as a horse that should be part of the discussion in the preps for the Triple Crown races (or Derby). He did look good in the February race, but he ran again on March 6 in a 1 1/8 mile allowance at GP and did not do very well. Did you see it? Is he actually going to the Florida Derby?

I can get a much better price today than Derby day on Win Willy, especially if he should win the AR Derby which I suspect, he just might.

It is just the complete dismissal of his legitimate run in the Rebel many seem to have including you.

I still like FF, and not completely sold on him until I see the other preps, as I did before, but the price is right on WW not FF after the blow out win in LA.

I just sold 60,000 shares of Sirius Radio I bought @ $0.09 for $0.32 when they hadn't got funding--Some times you take a shot on something you believe in before others do. I am in a very good mood.

The other ramblings go to the effect that in horse racing there are a lot of fellow people you like and meet at the racetrack that you probably wouldn't want to know where their money came from. My best friend growing up was the son a very big bookmaker. Two partners I had in a horse ended up being drug dealers, now in jail, which I knew nothing about other than they owned a tavern I frequented and put their money up to claim a few with. Horse players are a strange lot.

marc w... thanks a lot after reading your posts I realize those are 3 minutes I am never going to get back.  And for the record WIN WILLY was a FLUKE a FLUKE a FLUKE.  He ran by Old Fashioned but what was the excuse of the other 7 in the race? Talk about a weak field.  Win Willy is not worth talking about.  Lets talk about horses that can actually win.

TO: SLEW em.ALL

Maybe you won't feel so sure of yourself after IP wins the WOOD.

gw_bushwacker:

If you don't think Smooth Air is a very good horse then you're fooling yourself!

Folks this blog is so much fun.

Marc W: I think your wager will add enough salt to Jason's wound over Mr Fantasy and Old Fashioned.

Slew.em.All: Just to set the records straight, my analyses have been multi-dimensional i.e. incorporating pedigree, speed, past performances and the quality of competition.  We all have our turn at eating a little crow in this game so be prepared for yours, come Kentucky Derby day.  I acknowledge that you've been handicapping quite well so far but as we've seen in the case of Old Fashioned the pace, distance and closing rush of a "Win Willy" can prove to be your undoing at the wire, so beware my friend.  You don't seem very impressed with Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra but you will in due course.

gw_bushwacker if you think I am going to have only one plan with one horse you are wrong.  I thought I made myself pretty clear.  If the track comes up wet I am stating here and now I am placing my money on Desert Storm end of story.  But before I make my final statement on who is going to win on a fast track I need to see one more race from Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and Imperial Council.  When I see their final race and works at Churchill I will choose one of the three for my dry fast track choice.  Maybe you can pick one horse for all track conditions but I feel Desert Party is unbeatable on an off track. But make no mistake the Derby winner is one of the 4 listed above.

Friesan Fire's race was very impressive! I wasnt too sure of him until I saw him race this past weekend. He has proved to me that he can do it. I do have to say though a very disapointing run from Old Fashioned. I was not impressed, but Win Willy deffinately impressed me. So what if he was an opt claimer, hes good and thats all it takes. But I still want to see him go and maybe his owners will think about the derby. Now for Rachel Alexandra. She has ran good races but she has yet to catch my attention. If you noticed on the final stretch number 5(can't recall the name at the moment) made a lot of ground up on her and Im not sure if shes all shes cracked up to be. I don't know I guess we'll see.

santa anita derby is on april 4 pioneer of the nile doesnt have to win fast closing second would be nice last race for PON as in pounce not pawn was a workout to give him experience running closer to the pace last two deep closers to win derby monarchos and giacomo were won off extreme pace scenarios

O and Btw i am a fan of Mr. Fantasy. And I think his biggest problem was that hes never had a horse pass him before and Im not sure if he knew what was going on, kind of like he was confused that there was a horse in front of him. And could that happen to Rachel Alexandra if a horse got in front of her? Im not sure but you never know. I still have faith in the amazing Stardom Bound. She comes from the back and impresses me with every race.

Curlin - I agree with you about Terrain.  Really not too bad coming off a long layoff.  Although the camera cut away to focus on FF, when Terrain came up to Papa Clem, it appearred (in that brief millisecond) that PC really responded to the challenge and dug in.  That horse has some guts after the early run.  OF might not have gotten by Papa Clem.

I take back that last sentence abou Papa Clem and OF.  Really not a fair comparison.  Gads, not only can I talk faster than I think, but type too!  That's scarey!  :)

Tread, great point. Here's Dray's quote from last Sat live blog:

12:07 [Comment From Draynay]

If Friesan Fire wins I will never handicap another race.  

Dray I would book 3 of the 4 JJ's horse being the only one worthy.

I would like to see Shug win a Derby but it won't be this one. Alex Solis is another I would like to see win--at this point he still has a chance.

Now a handicapping lesson  --if you knew anything you would know that FG form holds up better at CD than most because the the track footing is similar so if muddy-duh! Pyro ran slow numbers and if you take the troubled boxed in trips out he didn't win impressively otherwise. Apples to Oranges.

Last years crop was one to forget, you had maybe one nice horse who never really proved anything other than he was best of his generation and a poor one at that. In his defense BB did almost all he could to show that he was top notch other than the Belmont. I do think like Curlin he would have been blown away the the Euros in the BC. There is where they had some really special horses last year---We never even saw the best--the filly!

Smooth Air mentioned a few times was was of the better ones behind BB, but a nice horse properly spotted he can win a lot of money. He is certainly a nice horse. Good horse is relative, if you are better than those running against you you are a good horse. I won my local zone 220 races in high school but got my butt kicked in when the city areas were included-didn't even qualify for the finals. Moral if you are a big fish in a small pond-----

The money that is out there for those without KY Derby fever Win Star, Lone Star, Ohio, PA, and even the Super Derby usually comes up light could make a millionaire out of a smartly placed 3 yr old even if they weren't the best. Dray talk to your people--there is money on the table. God knows, they should listen to you.

DRAYNAY:  Since the inception of these blogs you've made one good call i.e. Big Brown, which you wont let anybody forget even though you weren't the first or only one to rave about him. Subsequently, your other selections have mostly been ...flukes even when you try to cover all your angles, so hold your horses about Win Willy.  One wonders what will be the next excuse for Imperial Council when I Want Revenge and Hello Broadway gives him a reality check in the Wood Memorial.  I also notice that you are raving about Quality Road ...at least that's a saving grace for you but make up your mind and stop spinning like a gig.  

Dray,

Name the last horse from the UAE to hit the board in the Derby? And Giacomo was the last winner from the West Coast in 2005. Now the last winner of the SA Derby to win the KY Derby...probably Winning Colors in 88'. But horses that have placed in the SA Derby have won the KY Derby. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Giacomo.

I won't address Dray or his comments any more--I suggest the same to all.

Dray I still wish you well--if you were at least somewhat on this planet with your pontifications I enjoy sparring, but you aren't serious or realistic. I know I can be pompous at times, but "I don't think I am, or want to be God, just the job as his advisor."

I may have egg on my face after the AR Derby---OR--a lot of money in my pocket--still no line on Win Willy at the two sports books I use for Derby wagers.

I slipped in a great two-part trivia insult(in other words you have to know the the characters and what they are famous for to catch it) which he completely missed -pity. Hope someone caught it.

Goodbye Dray, sorry Jason for wasting space on your blog trying to reason with what you cannot reason with. Hopefully business will pick up and I won't have so much free time.

TO: RANAGULZION:

You should get a reality check! Like Jason says (and I've expressed the same opinion) just cause a horse wins one big race doesn't mean he's ready for the Derby. I'm sure Win Willy is a nice horse,but come on when Pioneer,FF,Quality Road,etc.are on the table I'll take my chances w/one of them. Remember I told you Win Willy isn't a Derby horse!

Think it's just too early to "toss out" West Coast horses because of synthetics---Last year Zenyatta, Col John, Tiago, Heatseeker all ran lights out back East ON DIRT---This year Albertus Maximus/I Want Revenge have followed suit....methinks ya leave out the West at your own expense....

I thought Freisan Fire just scooted away--that 2nd horse Papa Clem had finish and he just couldn't keep up with Freisan Fire's extra gear! He looks like the real deal--as does Pamplemousse--I just want to see The Pamplemousse get the Lead at Churchill cuz he too has that "certain something" the others seem to lack---make it Freisan Fire and The Pamplemousse for me with Imperial Council as my 3rd banana....AND Pioneerof The Nile to round out my super....of corse  with six weeks till Derby, subject to change/s/s/s/s!!

Geronimo,

I was only responding to a previous comment from someone else that equated the times of Street Sense and Musket Man. I pointed out that Street Sense's Beyer was 12 points higher than Musket Man. I was just stating a fact and leaving it out there for others to make of it as they choose. And yes, I am well aware that the Beyer crew fiddles with their numbers.

However, more important even than comparing Musket Man to Street Sense is comparing Musket Man to other potential Kentucky Derby starters this year. And frankly, that 90 Beyer for Musket Man doesnt stand up well vs. elite runners. I am not a numbers worshipper, but that low fig verified my impressions of the race.  However, becoming the next Zanjero wouldn't be the worst thing in the world; that horse ended up winning over a $ 1 million.

I know you are trying to flatter Musket Man's time by showing that the filly who ran the same time earlier in the day, Dont Forget Gil, set the stakes record for the Tampa Bay Oaks doing so. It looks like she is a fairly nice filly. But where would she rank as a Kentucky Derby prospect? If Musket Man is no better than she is, he has no chance in the Derby. I just dont think there is any way to spin the Tampa Bay Derby to make it look like a strong race, at least in my opinion. It was a poor to average Derby prep and is unlikely to produce alot of serious contenders. I feel the same way about the Louisiana Derby and San Felipe also-rans, and everyone except Win Willy and Old Fashioned in the Rebel.

However, horses can improve rapidly at this time of their careers. I would be presumptuous to assume that Musket Man has no shot in Kentucky and will not be able to improve in his next start. But I do think he will absolutely have to improve if he is to be a top challenger. Based on his performances so far, his pedigree, and potential, I have him rated at the bottom of my leading contenders. However, I do recognize him as a contender, and have no doubt that anyone involved in the sport would love to have a horse of his ability. It's all perspective. In any event, I've always felt the Kentucky Derby is given far too much significance. One bad race in the Derby doesnt define a career, and a ton of great horses didnt even run in the Derby.

Sunday Silence won both the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbys in 1989.

Mike Relva:  Don't worry,I'm sure IC will Not beat IWR in the Wood.Just as I was sure your Haynesfield had absolutely no shot against IWR in the Gotham...and spare me with that played-out line of your's "must be nice not to let knowledge get in the way".  peace out.

Ranagulzion: It's all in good fun,as it should be.Don't take it too serious like a couple of folks on here.I've had my fair share of crow,I know that.We all have different handicapping angles we use.But you're right,I'm not sold on Quality Road until I see him navigate a route of ground going 2-turns.1-turn miles just don't cut-it for me.We'll see in the Fla.Derby. And with Rachel A.,until she beats a field of solid fillies or colts for that matter,then to me,she's just another flash in the pan.Kinda' like Peppers Pride.Again,we'll see later on down the road.  

marc w on behalf of everyone on this blog I accept your apology for wasting space on this blog.  Your blogs were hard to understand and God seemed to be in most of them for some reason.  Mike Relva... how ya been ? I am getting pumped to watch Quality Road take down the Florida Derby ... how about you?

    "Now for Rachel Alexandra. She has ran good races but she has yet to catch my attention. If you noticed on the final stretch number 5(can't recall the name at the moment) made a lot of ground up on her and Im not sure if shes all shes cracked up to be. I don't know I guess we'll see.", Anniedixie65, you're kidding right?  Did you watch the race or are you just reading it from the chart?  By that comment, I'm taking it that you didn't watch the race.  Borel practically stood up in the irons for the last 1/8 to 1/16 of the race pointing the old #1 sign to the crowd.  If he rode her the whole way to the wire, the margin would have been 10 lengths more than what it was!

    As for my list of Derby favorites right now, it's actually similar to dray's (WOW).  My top 4 would be I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Desert Party & Friesan Fire.  A lot can change in 7 weeks though.  For these horses at this age, that's an eternity.  I'm looking at West Side Bernie & Terrain as exotics buster.  They're more than likely not good enough to win, but good enough to come running late and pick up a 3rd or 4th place finish.

    I'm looking forward to the Lane's End this weekend.  I'm going to cruise up to Turfway to check it out.  They usually put on a decent show.  It will be tough to beat West Side Bernie, but I think Bittel Road has a good chance in there.  If I can get 5-1 or better, I'll play him.  Good luck to everyone.

The last horse to win the Triple Crown first won the Santa Anita Derby. Monarchos is one of the few horses to ever run a sub 2:00 Derby.  Secretariat did and Sham was probably the second fastest ever.  

FF and OF - Larry gets his Derby.

Imperial Council is a plodder ~ look for Dunkirk as best in Florida.

im sorry draynay. a sub 23 opening quarter in any two turn race isn't a fast pace. and pioneer has no improving to do. after all hall of fame trainer bill mott and bob baffert couldn't be more wrong whenever they say that the farther for this horse the better. you were right, the top horsemen are wrong. i do agree that old fashioned is another unbridled song colt that shows a ton of ability but cannot follow through with it such as rockport harbor but still think he will be much the best in the arkansas derby, he is a nice horse for now with a mile and 1/8 being well within his scope. the pamplemousse will probably win the big race on the west coast, but thinking that a colt by yonaguska that likes to attend the early pace will cross the finish line top 15 in the derby is ignorant. i want revenge airs by 8 at aqueduct, which is no surprise. horses freak all the time on aqueduct dirt when close to the pace (or on it), look at bellamy road, where did he finish in the derby? not to mention the field was very very inexperienced. win willy will never be heard of seriously again. after reading all of these posts, it is the same thing every year, people get caught up in the hype of horses running big numbers. all of the following are throw outs in my opinion of this years derby.

dunkirk, i want revenge, win willy, general quarters,quality road, and the pamplemousse. there is no doubt that none of the much hyped horses named above will hit the board in this years derby. and it is amusing to see a lot of ppl trying to defend the west coast and saying that they have a better crop of 3yr olds this year. i can understand this argument, but the thing i dont understand is why everyone is backing the pamplemousse, yes he will probably win the big prep out there but pioneer is the horse for you all im telling you, the breeding, the running style, the jockey, the trainer, and the fact that he is still mentally maturing and will hopefully be peaking at the right time for the derby.

Charismatic also came out of the Santa Anita Derby (4th) to win the Kentucky Derby in 1999, but not directly. He won the Lexington in between those two races.

And in 1996, Santa Anita Derby winner, Cavonnier, got beat the slimmest of noses in Kentucky by a horse, Grindstone, than began his year out in California before shipping for the Louisiana Derby.

As proof that the Knetucky Derby isnt everything, Monarchos won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Santa Anita Derby winner, Point Given, 5th. Point Given, however, came back to win the Preakness, Belmont (by 12), Haskell, and Travers, was the Eclipse champion 3 year old and Horse of the Year, and is on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.

Came Home, the 2002 Santa Anita Derby winner, defeated older horses later that year in the grade 1 $1 million Pacific Classic. Castledale, the 2004 Santa Anita Derby champ, is considered by many to be a one hit wonder, yet he captured the grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on turf as a 4 year old.  Buzzards Bay, like Castledale a Jeff Mullins trainee and Santa Anita Derby champ, finished 5th in Kentucky, but came back to win the Oaklawn Handicap by 6 the next year, and at 5 won the grade 2 Californian Stakes. Brother Derek and Tiago, the 06' and 07' SA derby winners, are both multiple grade 1 winners, as is Colonel John.

The same is true for most of the major Derby prep races. These are quality horses.

Arkansas Derby winners: Olympio in 91', Pine Bluff in 92', Concern in 94', Victory Gallop 98',Balto Star 01', Smarty Jones 04', Afleet Alex 05', Lawyer Ron 06', Curlin 07'. All of the above horses were multiple grade 1 winners. Interestingly, only one of them also took the Kentucky Derby (Smarty), but does that take away from their quality?  Additionally, Arkansas Derby runner-ups, Lil E Tee (92') and Grindstone(96'), came back and won the Kentucky Derby. How about a horse like Borrego. He ran 2nd to Smarty in the 04' Arkansas Derby, but was best at age 4 when he won the grade 1 Pacific Classic and grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Corporate Report, 2nd in 91', won the Travers later that year.

Draynay...your comments are amusing but very naive.  You obviously have very little experience in the industry and are simply a handicapper throwing darts with a large ego.  I will give you a small tip for your future handicapping...Time only matters when you are in prison!!!  You are comparing times all over the place and acting like it has much to do with anything...If you talked to any trainer they would tell you that it is a useless variable in horse racing.  Just think about it...Wouldn't everyone on here be millionaires by using time as a major handicapping tool....but keep up your posts, they are at least good for a laugh...Cheers

What about Stardom Bound?? I'm still holding out for her.

TO:DRAYNAY

How are you? Yes,I'm w/you regarding Quality Road. Like you,I'm looking for big things with IP. Take Care

Slew.em.Al, not Mensa (that's my husband), but the old I.Q. is up there. Just the same, I wish I had your horse smarts. Love these discussions. Some really interesting people on this board.

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

Yes,I wrote right after Haynesfields' race to admit I was way off with selecting him. Here's a question: are you going to tell me every race you've ever picked in your life was correct? Why don't you act like you've been there before,instead of some football player that scores a touchdown and is doing back flips in the end zone like he's all world or something! Your wrong on IP,simple as that!

I have read some of the comments in the last few days and some of you I agree with and others I wonder if your just starting to handicap for the first time...

I don't feel I should predict who is going to win the derby until after the Wood Memorial..

As stated before in a earlier comment by me  a few weeks ago there has only been two horses in the past 18 years that won the derby with out posting a 100+ beyer in one of their 3 starts before the derby. (Sea Hero 93, Giacomo 05) 8 of those derby winners ran 100+ beyers back to back.

Another point if you take all the derby winners from 92- 07  and average their pre derby - beyer it = 106.9. Most of the derby winners in their previous start actually  had a higher beyer  than the 106.

With that said I will not bet a horse to win the derby that has not run at least 104 beyer. I prefer to see back to back 100+ beyers and with only a few preps left not many of the horses on the derby trail have that opportunity

I will share my thoughts on some of the big names that are heavily talked about and have least run 100 + beyer.

Fresian Fire does look like the real deal. He has steadily gotten better start after start. I wasn't really on his bandwagon but you cant argue with the fact he is getting really good at the right time.  He has great breeding and lets look at his numbers  starting 3 back 93,96 and 104 that he earned last week. I like the progression there isn't a huge jump in his beyers. If I'm Larry Jones I wouldn't waist a start in the Blue Grass I would just train him up to the derby. He looks very good right now.

Quality Road - I still believe he is a miler that got a favorable trip and the track was favoring speed in the FOY. We will see how real he is next Saturday in the Florida Derby. The story of the prep races so far at Gulfstream have been run a huge race and get a big beyer # & in your next start your no where to be found in your next start. Lets see if that 113 is legit.  

TGJJ- I believe he and Beethoven ran a more truer race than QR. They both were against the bias more Beethoven than TGJJ. However TGJJ finished second in the FOY  and received a 105 he has a right to move forward next week in the Florida Derby.

IWR- I don't know if  I saw flashback of watching Bellamy Road  or if indeed that this horse really wanted dirt and he is that much better than everybody else. He is a nice animal and his race in the Gotham seems legit. I just need to see a similar performance in the Wood Memorial to jump on board derby day.

I'm looking at my info now and Smarty Jones has the highest 2 back beyer of all the past derby winners. He earned a 112  and then he earned a 109 prior to the derby. IWR got 113 in his last start. If IWR can earn at least 107in the Wood Memorial i'm on board derby day.

TPM- There is no question in my mind that this is the best 3 yr old in California! He is another that is getting good at the right time. I don't know if he is good enough to win the derby but this would be in my mind CA best chance of winning the derby.

I just want to tell all you POTN fans that there is no way that this horse is winning the derby! When I watch him run he reminds me of Ravens pass and all the other Europeans that like grass and love synthetic. When it comes time to do running in the derby he is going to be spinning his wheels because he's not going to like the surface. I kind of hope he wins the SA Derby so that people bet him and possibly make him the favorite in the derby.

The other biggie for me is his  beyer #'s  his highest to date is a 95 and then he earned a 90 from last week performance. I'm not saying this horse should have run a huge number but i'd rather seen him progress & jump up a couple of points instead of going the other way. I respect Bob Baffert but I cant see this horse winning the derby not on his  beyer numbers.

Since i'm at I might as well say it. Please people don't waist your time this week talking about the Lanes End. It won't matter who wins this race because non of these horses are good enough to win the derby.

I have already showed before that all the horses that run 1,2,3 in any of the prep races on synthetic have done nothing in the derby.

Except Street Sense who used the Blue Grass as a live race work out. Street Sense was the best 3 yr of his crop at the time and he loved Churchill. Though he finished second in the Blue Grass on a surface which he was spinning his wheels on and he almost won Had it non been for the surface non of those horses would have been near him.  

The Blue Grass wasn't the race that put him over the top. So don't waist your time talking about the Blue Grass in a few weeks cause all we have come to learn that those hores that do well in the synthetic preps don't run a lick in the derby.

Adriano 1st Lanes End 19th derby Monba 1st Blue Grass  20th and last in last years derby cowboy cal 2nd BG 9th in the derby Colonel John 1st  SA Derby 6th in the derby.

Domincan 07 BG winner 11th derby Zanjero 3rd BG 12th derby. I think I have made my point that the synthetic prep races are a joke.

I like to hear your opinions its fun to go back and forth.

TO: SLEW.em.ALL

Now you've comfirmed what I've suspected all along regarding your limited knowledge of racing. Peppers Pride retired at 19-0. I don't give a damn where she ran just like her trainer stated,If being undefeated is so easy why can't everyone do it?

DRAYNAY & MIKE  RELVA(Dray's rotweiller):  After reading MARC W's posting I am feeling a little remorseful about hitting Dray so hard in my last posting on account of Win Willy.  But believe me it was hard to see him calling "Willy" a fluke, not once but three times in the same sentence.  Forgive me fellas.  Truth be told, we do share an eye for the truly classy thoroughbreds except that Dray catches on late and then floods the blog with his sentiments as if he saw the likes of Big Brown and Quality Road before everyone else.  I was with him backing Vineyard Haven but only as the next best thing to Big Drama.  Since both appear for the moment to have fallen out of contention he jumped on Imperial Council but I first him to Quality Road.  Now he is still touting Imperial Council and covering his "horse"(you get my drift) with my horse Quality Road.  I don't want revenge but "when will he?"(say it out loud).

Mike Relva if you were the owner of Win Willy I would only believe you after the final starters have been declared and he is not in the line up.  You take that to the bank my friend.  I am not given to falling for "one race wonders" but my instincts which have been trained by decades of Derby watching is more trustworthy to me.  We shall see buddy.

Curlin: Go ahead and play Bittel Road in the Lane's End.Everything coming out of Cali. have been running their @$$es off...IWR in the Gotham/the longshot 3rd place in the TB Derby(forgot the name)/Papa Clem(2nd) in the La.Derby. That's 3 horses=3 placings with them finishing 1st,2nd $ 3rd respectively. I'm playing him for sure,and it Looks like Pletcher is trying to avoid the Top guns from Cali by finding an easier spot.We know he has no problem with Synthetics and has been running good enough against much better. Good call!  Good luck!

Scott P... I see I need to give you a little lesson in how to handicap.

Lesson 1 ... Everything matters if it leads you to the winner.  Too many people believe Beyers, Times, workouts etc... just don't matter.  Well time matters to me and a horse that runs a 1:38 mile is not my Derby horse. I don't know of any race where time does not matter.  Try telling Michael Phelps time doesn't matter. If it didn't matter why time races at all? I am tired of people saying this or that doesn't matter.  Let me say this one more time.  Smooth Air won the G2 Gulfstream Handicap against some very good older horses.  Notice the time and splits they ran and remember SMOOTH AIR is a multi Stakes winning horse and ran just 2 lengths behind Curlin in the Breeders Cup. Now look at Quality Road run the same race on the same track and notice how he runs faster and easier.  That means nothing to you? It tells me Quality Road is a potential monster and the one to bet on in the Florida Derby.  Do us all a favor and TELL us what leads you to picking your choice for the Florida Derby.  Teach us what matters to you and what leads you to pick the winner of the Florida Derby.  Tell us what matters....

KAT, Papa Clem did the same thing in the Lewis, while putting some separation between himself and IWR; all be it much more than the very close finish with Terrain.  It seemed to me that it took a lot for RBej. to take hold of PC and may have taken just a bit out of him.  We'll see in the IL Derby what he has to offer, second time on the dirt.  I'm hoping for some more progress.  That said, it looks like the Florida Derby is setting up to be a key race with perhaps the best three horses going; QR, JJ and Dunkirk.  Running really well at one mile and 1/8 is the best test, breeding and all of the other stuff aside (for a moment).  I know I can go back to Sea Hero for the last one to not finish in the money and run well in a one mile and 1/8 race against solid competition.  He had a troubled trip and an equipment change out of the BG.  I think Jason has a solid list.  I'm not a FF fan, but that should not dismiss him.  It's a tricky thing watching horses winning by large margins in these preps.  Remember Indian Charlie's fantastic SA Derby blowing everyone away including Real Quiet.  Congaree defeating Monarchos by a wide margin (granted Monarchos already had the FL Derby and was gliding into the KD).  7, 8 length wins; you could play many tapes of them, only to see them not perform so well later on.  It takes a great disposition as well.  I think the FL Derby will tell us a lot.  

Mike Relva: come on relax,I'm not gonna' get into with you regarding "knowledge",it's obvious who's lacking in it. Anyway,the point I was making regarding Peppers Pride is: it's obvious you can dominate lesser horses any day of the week,but put them up against faster,classier foes and it might be a different story.So  don't give the crown to RA just yet.Let her beat better stock first,plus Stardom Bound is still alive amd kickin' you know.They'll meet soon enough,can't wait.

ROCKER: I will tell you one thing about the Blue Grass.  It is a sneak-in entry door into the Derby for late developing but precocious looking grass/synthetic runners. Just ask Todd Pletcher(trainer of last year's infamous duo, Monba and Cowboy Cal) and he might answer you in the Affirmative (get my drift?).  Otherwise it is a fitness tune-up for dirt horses that already have the earnings to be in the final Derby line up.  For the latter group the Blue Grass results are inconsequential.  From my point of view I fail to see why this derby prep is kept as a Grade I while the much more significant Arkansa Derby is a Grade II.  One of those anomolies of the Triple Crown challenge I guess.  

GunBow You forgot BEST PAL!  Second in the Santa Anita Derby, second in the Kentucky Derby (1991), won the Pacific Classic at age 3.  In 47 races the gelding earned close to 6 million dollars.  Much like the ladies, the fact that he was a Cal bred and a gelding keeps him off the 100 list of all time greatest.  He would be on my top ten right with Lady's Secret and Bayakoa.

Jason did a real nice interview with Hollendorfer about Beyers and synthetics.  Take POTN's 95 and just add 15 for dirt.  Is this enough to win the Derby now?  I think the synthetic to dirt thing upsets the handicappers more than it does the horses.  Empire Maker on the grass is nice but he will like the dirt.  It seems like the only bet left (bet against POTN liking dirt) for a horse that will have passed the 1 million dollar mark in earnings by the first Saturday in May.  

Anniedixie:

I have to agree w/ Curlin. If you watch the Louisiana Oaks you will see that Rachel Alexandra's jockey, Calvin Borel, was easing up on her the final sixteenth of a mile. Had he not done so, Flying Spur (the filly who ran 2nd) would not have been in the picture.

Slew em All:

I have to diagree with your comparison of Rachel Alexandra and Peppers Pride. The latter was a New Mexico bred that ran against other New Mexico breds in restricted races, never won a graded stakes, and never left that state. Rachel Alexandra just won an open $400,000 grade 2 stakes. She has already done something Peppers Pride never did.  Peppers Pride was not in Rachel Alexandra's league.

There is something else that Peppers Pride most definitely wasnt, and that is a "flash in the pan".  Peppers Pride gained her fame not by winning one rich or prestigious race and then never being heard from again. Her claim to fame was winning 19 races in a row, and retiring undefeated. I think that would make her the opposite of a flash in the pan. Perhaps you were thinking of another horse?

Just ran a Draynay/Relva Bloodhorse hypothetical mating that screams Derby Winner!

Jason, you have Godolphin’s Desert Party listed at #6 in derby top ten. I happen to think their best derby hope is unknown to most. While a lot of your supporters are interested in the 14 3YOs entered in the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton Park on Wednesday March 18, I am interested in the March 28th UAE Derby. The 3YO City Style that Darley secured in their acquisition of Stonerside’s racing and breeding stock has impressed me immensely. If he is entered in the UAE Derby, I will be keenly watching his performance as I think he could get Godolphin off the KD zero. I am of the opinion that Godlophin will not win the derby with their million dollar purchases. They will win with a horse that they have stumbled into. This 3YO gelding fit the bill ideally. He started his racing career by winning his debut in a $22,000 maiden claiming race on dirt. He then placed second on the same surface in a 6F allowance. He made his turf debut in his third start in the win and you are in Sunday Silence Stake and closed from 12L last for an upset victory. The connections used the win and you are in opportunity to enter him in the $1M Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He was dismissed in the betting @45-1 and closed from 12L last but one to be beaten 21/2L by the European duo of Donativum & Westphalia. Interestingly, he was not initially selected by Godolphin to winter in Dubai. He eventually became a late addition to their winter contingent. I am guessing that a 21/2 defeat by two talented Europeans was enough to book this unassuming gelding’s passage.

He has grown a lot since his relocation to the desert paradise and has been very impressive both his 2008 starts on turf. It must be noted that Dettori was the pilot on both occasions. He may pick this horse over Desert Party if he runs in the UAE Derby. He has now won 4 of his 6 starts with one second and a fourth.

I am puzzled why he has been confined to turf when he has an overwhelming dirt pedigree. This City Zip gelding is as tough as nails and appears capable of running all day. A review of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf will show that with another sixteenth, he would have seriously challenged Donativum & Westphalia. If either Donativum or Westphalia were considering the derby, I am positive they would not be dismissed.

Why bother to mention a gelding with modest pedigree that has made his last four starts on turf? Well, why did Godolphin nominate to the Triple Crown? He does not sport a turf pedigree; he has a better turn of foot and more stamina than Desert Party; he is a gelding and good geldings are more genuine than good colts. If he performs big in the UAE Derby I would not discount him in the KD.

What a story it would be if Godolphin wins the derby with a gelding that under normal circumstances they wouldn’t accept to pull a cart.

hey egg face, I mean marc w, good luck with your longshot. draynay I like your comments you are funny. go FF and chocolate candy. I like the name and he seems to win alot.

    Rocker, don't forget Hard Spun had his last prep before the Derby in the Lane's End so the 2007 Derby exacta (I think it was around $100) was completed by horses who had their last prep on synthetics.  For me, the big difference with those 2 was the fact they had previously ran on dirt.  That's what separated them from most of the other synthetic horses.

    Slew, I appreciate the boost of confidence.  I figure I will get at least 5-1 on Bittel Road because everyone will hammer West Side Bernie.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see that horse go off at under 2-1 based on his previous victory at Turfway and his 3rd place finish in the Holy Bull closing into the speed biased Gulfstream strip.  5-1 in my mind would be great value on BR considering I think his chances are better than that at winning the race.  Sorry, Jason, I'm jumping ahead here a little bit.  I'll wait to post more comments in the upcoming TC blog since I'm assuming you'll do one for the Lane's End.

GunBow:  my comparison of RA to PP was that she ran against horses that had no chance of beating her.But put her up against classier types and it would've likely been a different story.Same with what RA has been facing lately.She hasn't faced anybody of significance yet.Her match-up against Stardom Bound will let us know where she stands.

Retiring 19for19 is special.But she faced a bunch of NM state-breds,and with a record like that,you'd think people would be talking about how great of a racehorse she was...but they're not because her people picked the easiest of spots to run her.That record should have an asterisk besides it.  Flash in the Pan,yes,IMO. She's lucky she raced strictly in NM.

MEMES: Too funny!

You know what else is funny that everyone is NOT talking about synthetics in the negative like they did last year. Last year it was a huge deal with betters now it seems that the betters who comment on here are not up in arms about it . Funny how a year changes a guys mind about stuff.

Coldfacts/Jason,

City Style was not Pre-entered into the UAE Derby. Perhaps the Guineas?

For those referencing the FG Oaks and Flying Spur, do note that her two big races have been on off goings. That's how I got on her in the Exa. She seems to like it very much.

Does anyone know if Col John actually disliked the dirt at Churchill or just got a bad trip?  Like I have been saying a lot of dirt horses hate that track. 1/2 the field is "climbing" by the first turn and another 1/2 continue to do so down the back stretch. It is really hard to tell unless they have had a run over it.

Mr Mike Revla, why did you jump off of Haynesfold[oh yea I ment Hanesfield after 1 lousy performance? You were raving about him winning the Gotham , now under the bus? Your flip flopping.

TO:SLEW em.ALL

Let's see "who lacks knowledge" after IP wins the Wood. lol Told you I could care less that PP ran only in New Mex. she is something special. Since your the "expert" seems it stands to reason you would figure that a horse to reel off nineteen in a roll is nothing to sneeze at,considering how difficult is to keep their form,etc.

To: RANAGULZION:

Your right to believe whatever you want. But,I see it everyday on this blog and other people getting excited over some horse that maybe wins one big race,i.e. a shooting star. Unlike some that jumps on and off each day if you looks back at Jasons' & other blogs from two months prior you will find that I picked Pioneer,not just lately,but from the get go. It's between him,IP, FF.Bet @ your own risk!

Whoops, he's a gelding. No guineas for him.

MEMES--That really is too funny! I immediately thought of an appropiate addendum, but to post it would derail the the intended purpose of the blog. So...

Pepper's Pride, yes being undefeated is a major accomplishment even if was against NM breds Slew em all. They refused to run her out of NM and made sure all races were against State breds only.  That being said you still have to tip your hats off to a horse who still beat everyone in every race she ran.Mr Mike Revla is right ,to stay sound over that time and win is impressive.Running 19 times is a major accomplishment itself considering the way trainers baby their horses.Mr Mike why would P OF N be tired? He certainly didn't overtrian and wouldn't you agree being a longtime  racing fan that the horses of today just aren't as well prepared or bred as horses in the 50's and 60's?Sometimes the best horse doesn't win for whatever reason . Case in point Native Dancer wins 21 of 22 but loses the Derby to Dark Star who runs the race of his life.Crowded fields cause problems and too bad so many owners have such big ego's that they run a horse who has no business being in the race. I wish they would limit the race to 15.

Rock: I had Flying Spur also on a tip about her enjoying the wet track.  Racheal was a gimmie.  The day was terrible, I enjoyed seeing the ladies hardly notice.  And every time Fresian Fire runs I win on #2 and #3.  Giant Oak is terribly overrated as is Patena leaving for nice exotics.

TO: PHANTOM

I'm not "flip flopping". If Haynesfield was still on the Derby trail,then I would still be on him. Guess you've picked every single selection without fail,right? Give me a break! lol

Just food for thought... People should not use results  from past Santa Anita Derby's & Blue Grass races that were run on dirt  to justify their betting angels for  this year Kentucky derby.  

Its like comparing apples and oranges  when you compare past SA Derby winners on dirt  and the  recent winners of the race since it went to synthetic.

I know some of you old timers would disagree. For years the SA Derby and BG were huge preps for the derby and you had to pay attention who came out of those races. Now these days those races mean nothing to the derby except giving a synthetic lover a spot in the derby.

Ranagulzion : Otherwise it is a fitness tune-up for dirt horses that already have the earnings to be in the final Derby line up.  For the latter group the Blue Grass results are inconsequential.  From my point of view I fail to see why this derby prep is kept as a Grade I while the much more significant Arkansa Derby is a Grade II.  One of those anomolies of the Triple Crown challenge I guess.  

Ranagulzion  Your 110% right on that. I agree with you that the SA derby and Blue Grass should loose their Gr 1 status and move down to a Gr 2 and  move up the status of the Ark Derby to Gr 1.  

Hell if Street Sense didn't loose that race in the 07 Blue Grass I would have gotten 8/5 on him instead of $11.90 on derby day.

I'm just going to be laughing after the Blue Grass winner doesn't hit the board in the derby. I would say the same for SA derby winner but it depends who it is because if its TPM he might have a shot of hitting the board depending what is in the race for speed on derby day. If its PON I think he wont hit the board.

One more point about the derby day is it me or does anyone else pay attention how the track is playing that day. Last year on derby day on all the undercard races there were like 1 or 2 winners that came off the pace. It was mostly horses that went to the lead or were like 3 lengths of the pacesetter.

The only horse that actually closed in the derby itself was Dennis of Cork. I do enjoy talking about the derby and who's going to win and everything but we can't predict how the track is going to play out on derby day.

Relva: Didn't you say

"FF was too slow and had no chance..just ask draynay"? huh? In fact you did,in another blog earlier today...And now he's one of the ones? Figures!  Draynay/Relva..The Flip-Flopping Foibles.

I guess Mafaaz,the winner of the Kentucky Challenge Stakes @ Kempton Park will go in the Bluegrass next.Interesting,since his trainer John Gosden was a very good trainer out here in SoCal a while back.Protege of the late,great Charlie Whittingham.Don't know what to make of him yet,but we'll get to check him out soon enough.I might be in the minority here,but I think this CAN'T hurt the Industry as it is.Some will argue that this Win and you're in type of race is taking a spot away from an N.American horse.But,if you're not in the top 12 spots Graded earnings wise,then you more than likely have no business being in the Ky.Derby anyway. Just my thoughts.

Jason,

I follow your forum and occasionally post as “Laura R.”  

I have authored an Internet book, “2009 Guide to Freshmen Sires,” a comprehensive guide to the sires whose progeny will hit the track for the first time this year.

The 2009 Freshman Sires E-Book was compiled as a guide for multiple interests, including handicappers and breeders, to learn about new sires and what to expect from their first crop of runners. Important facts regarding the stallion’s breeding, how precocious the stallion’s progeny could be, plus the surfaces and distances they will most likely prefer are reviewed for 36 national sires.

Each year horseplayers have a unique opportunity to make money with the latest crop of stallions. Correctly identifying those sires that get precocious runners can be one of the most lucrative angles in the sport.  This E-Book will give players that early advantage, concentrating on providing quality information that is rooted in handicapping rather than the usual ethereal pedigree dissection.

I’m not trying to sell anything, as the E-book is free for anyone to download. I’d be delighted if you could review the book at your leisure and give me your thoughts. If you feel the book could be worthwhile to others, please pass along the link.  www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com

Warm regards,

Laurie

Slew em All: I understand the point you are making with Rachel Alexandra. I agree that she still must prove herself against the very best fillies of her generation before being annointed a superstar. I also agree that Peppers Pride, while very admirable and a wonderful story, was not a great racehorse. As I wrote earlier, she raced exclusively in New Mexico against other New Mexico breds; she wasnt being tested by the very best. That's also why I wrote that Rachel Alexandra, though she still has much to prove, has already accomplished something Pepers Pride never did, and that is win a graded stakes.

Finally, I think you are not quite understanding the term "Flash in the Pan". A "Flash" refers to a horse that comes out of nowhere, wins one big race, and then never does anything again. So, if Win Willy were to never win another race of significance (which Im not saying he will, just talking hypothetical here), he would be considered a "Flash in the Pan". In contrast to a "Flash", Peppers Pride is known for having won 19 straight races. She didnt jump up and freak in one big race, and then disappear. She ran the same type of race over and over again. As such, she is actually the opposite of a "flash in the pan".

TO: MEMES:

Fire your comedy writer!

Old Iron Horse,

The Thoroughbreds of today are not as strong as the thoroughbreds of 25 to 30 years ago and further back.  Breeders breed for speed,not endurance.  That has a lot to do with it.  Horses nowadays can't run every week or have marathon training.  Remember, the breed has a very small gene pool.  Breeding for speed has not really gotten any new speed records in the last few years. Records that have been set have been by the smallest of margins.  Maybe it's time to introduce some new genes and new blood but I don't think that will happen.  We just don't have the iron horses of yesteryear.

Householder Col John was shuffled far back/made big wide run then folded into that stretch headwind---but even on his best day he's no Big Brown...then again 98% of all the previous Derby winners would'nt have beaten Brownie that day...But this year seems so much deeper than last---as for synthetics, horses have been shipping outta SoCal and running big--I'm not sure but it looks like it's maybe a benefit to run/train on Pro Ride--at least they haven't lost time AT ALL this year--remember they lost MANY days at Santa Anita last Winter---Heck, it's ALWAYS been tough to ship out to Churchill Downs for Cali horses--the dirt was nothing like the SoCal dirt, a bettor never really knew if a West Coaster could handle CD back then, so it's not really THAT different...What I'm trying to say is this: It's hard to handicap East v West now....But it was always hard--even when the West had dirt cuz their dirt had/needed much less sand....

just wondering if anyone made a k.d. exacta future bet?

FF reminds me so much of 2004 KD winner.....remember him....Smarty Jones...and his running style? Unless somebody else puts strings some wins together I am not going to play with fire and get burned!! He will be my choice.

EQ8 - looks like Papa Clem is going to Arkansas. . . he may be related to someone there. . .

Hard not to like a gutsy horse.

I'm going to Santa Anita, my heart (if not my head, cause there are some questions there) belongs to The Pamplemousse.

Rock - too funny!

Ditto for me to Karen in Texas! Your home boy Mr. Bush was in cow town yesterday and hundreds of protesters wanted him arrested for war crimes. It's a funny world we live in isn't it? (ah what the hell I couldn't resist, sorry Jason}

Thanx, Gals...a little levity to keep Mr. Steve and y'all smiling...however,the boyz might not be as amused, since that bloodstock mating also said something about inbreeding and ridglings........    

Ya know the trainer commented on FF early this spring about him not being focused. I seem to remember Jason that you commented as well. I think you said something about the horse had to move forward and I agreed. It seems to me that he is moving forward now and if he continues to do so will look better and better. I like him more and more and will watch his works with a lot of interest.

OK watching some posts here is like being run off the road by somebody that is texting while driving. Proper time and place. I won't claim innocence here myself as I got off roaded a few times by a texting driver above and honked.

Peppers Pride amazing accomplishment even and her trainer if she had been a 3K claimer.I like Taylorlane Diva and Colin Power in the 8th and 9th at Meadowlands at big prices tomorrow--they are harness horses- and have nothing to do with the Derby rankings.

Neither does Peppers Pride.

Jason,

Getting back to Derby doings---question?

The only Derby I saw live was Proud Clarion's win over Barb's Delight and Damascus. I was also there and I think it was the "week" proceeding the Derby that Barb won the Derby Trial. (My dad was in Cool Receptions camp) Citation ran against older in allowance races as preps.

The question-with accommodating racing secretaries--and they are out there. With a race written for them, why couldn't a horse needing a good easy prep with his ticket in earnings already punched, just avoid stakes and odd racing surfaces to have him win a easy allowance and have him in perfect shape for the Derby?  

TO:SLEWem.ALL

Question? Show me where I ever Said FF wasn't fast enough.

TO: PHANTOM:

I just had the impression Pioneer was tired. Several on this blog has stated that. Obviously I have no way of knowing,but he's been one of my early picks from months ago.

Agreed Matthew W.  If it is not the Churchill dirt it is the last 1/8 mile.  A few West Coast horse have run and done well on Pro-Ride, Tapeta, and Cushion Track, which according to trainers, are completely different synthetics. This may increase their chances of taking to a different surface. I also remember Winning Colors winning the Derby and then a year later getting nailed at the wire by Personal Ensign on the same track.  Granted the later was an undefeated super horse and Colors had a difficult campaign.  My point is Churcill is hard to handicap for dirt horses as well...even ones like Winning Colors who ran well both east and west.  Throw in a little more or less moister and good night.

I saw Pioneer up close last time out.  He is the fittest horse I have seen since Alysheba.  I do worry about running him back on only 3 weeks rest against much better rested horses like Chocolate Candy.  Baffert has run second in the SA Derby before only to nail the big one.  This guy knows what he is doing and he certainly is not running this horse into the ground.  If most of these horses could talk they would say "Take me to Baffert."  

I DID NOT KNOW CHEF WAS THAT BAD ON MARCH 6TH. GOOD BY TO THE DERBY THAN AND TRIPLE CROWN. DO YOU KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT MAFAAZ HE WON LAST NIGHT, BUT MAFAAZ LOOKED SLOW TO ME?

Relva:

Answer; Adam's Turf/The Giant's fall..yesterday @ 11:43am. You said: "Friesan Fire is too slow just ask draynay"..which tell's it all right there. Read it and weep!

Jason,r u having a live blog this Saturday?

Relva/dray a little "Fight Club" going on here? But if you didn't catch the Divinyls ref you might not catch this one.

Win Willy 50-1 on bodog.com FF 7 & 1/2

My Derby exacta:.....Well there's SO many ways a race can be run, but if The Pamplemousse has a two length lead at the 1/2 mi pole,(that's likely), and Freisan Fire is 2nd or 3rd at that point,(and THAT'S likely), I'll be moonwalking to the cashier windows! That's NOT likely as I cannot dance!

Marc W

Not even funny!!!!!!

Monica V....The horses of today are TOO strong/TOO much muscle which causes soundness problems as their joints/tendons/bones simply cannot "keep up", as it were.....that is why I abhore reading about running fillies v males anymore--not that it ever was a good idea....Mr Prospector/Fappiano and others were milers who were used to influence speed into stamina bred mares---it worked and breeding patterns were changed virtually overnight! I still long for that Curlin type---in fact, when I see a horse who may be great, I almost hope he's a gelding....and I mean that....There's a reason that Best Pal was so beloved....

TO SLEW.EM>ALL

Very funny! I NEVER WROTE ON ADAM's BLOG! SOMEONE WROTE THAT STUPID POST AND PLACED MY NAME THERE. ANY IDEAS? First,I like FF and second I've never posted on that certain blog before. Guess you wouldn't know who did that,right??

There's only ONE horse who can carve out fast fractions and then open up on them at the 1/4 pole....."Viva La Grapefruit"!

The Pamp worked well today.  I thought Chocolate Candy's mile work was interesting.  He is well rested.  We may have Chocolate covered Grapefruit come April.  

Not me if that was the ref. As to Fight Club are you sure you are not the Brad Pitt character? Same posts different name?

DEFINITELY subject to change but if will give a list since I have looked at so many

Friesian Fire –original pick no reason to change on what has transpired

Pioneer of the Nile-not pretty buts just wins

I Want Revenge- hate to put him this high but things change

Chocolate Candy—I just see him going well in the Derby no matter how he shows up in the SA Derby

The Pamplemousse-obviously this one can go higher but I will leave him here

Win Willie –Fluke? I really don’t think it was and I have gone back and watched that race 5 times. How good? That’s a tough question even if he runs well again.

The rest of the top ten would be the Florida crew, which needs to be sorted out and will shortly. Dropping from # 2 to this group would be Old Fashion also downgraded was Papa Clem although he ran well. Terrain is not a horse I would say can win in the Derby but is possible to hit the ticket. Beethoven is this years Dennis of Cork in my opinion if the outfit wants placing in big races instead of wins in others, it is very possible he will pick up checks in the big ones..

Looks like a jockey change for Old Fashioned...Terry Thompson gets the mount!!!

Monica RIGHT ON! We ARE fortunate to have Tiznow and Candy Ride...and hopefully Curlin and Big Brown will bring their own fruits to the harvest---and Giants Causeway---But Tiznow has the Man O War line...and Tiznow was/IS a real specimen...Monica I think we ARE going through a "new surge" in an (old) stamina influence...it's ironic, but synthetic tracks seem to NEED more stamina than speed to win races...and darn it if that doesn't please me....

Here is my Derby Top 10:

1. Friesan Fire

2. Pioneerof the Nile

3. I Want Revenge

4. The Pamplemousse

5. Old Fashioned

6. Desert Party

7. Quality Road

8. Dunkirk

9. Stardom Bound

10. Rachel Alexandra

Quality Road wears the roses in May. It was good to see that my eyes have not failed me. I finally saw that it was acknowledged in the media that this horse was BIG. If you doubt, how big? You will get your opportunity to see how big he is, next to the other horses, in the Florida Derby. Shades of Forego!!!

marc c.  You list looks good.  We keep hearing about what these "super horses" are going to do (e.g., Old Fashioned, Dunkirk).  How about going with horse that have actually won some stakes races.  The only horse that would have a chance at topping the big west's 4 would be FF.  We will see how he does next out.  His chances may even be dimming.

Householder,

    maybe i'm mistaken, but i believe the Southwest and Remsen are stakes, which OF did happen to win. I could understand if you just put Dunkirk seeing as how he's only won a maiden and allowence, but OF not only won stakes, but incases you didn't notice they were graded stake aswell. Also how do you see FF chance at dimming? he just won his last, again another of those lowly graded stakes by seven lengths, against what many thought was one of the best preps of the year untill he manhandled the field.

Liked your comments regarding FF LDP. His numbers are improving and you have to like a horse who wins a major prep as easy as he did. I always like to see a horse win that way when their headed down a tough road come May. You don't know how much he got out of that race but who cares about times when they win that easy. It's the way they train horses now like it or not, they don't put them under the grind like they did years ago. Your not going to see eye popping times anymore unless they all show up for the big dance and everybody's got their game face on.

does anybody know that i want revenge might have partial ownership buy ieah stables i find that knid of funny since their top choice for the kentucky derby didnt even show up in the last race what is there aproach if they cant be in the derby by a horse that is on his way to the derby so you can say you knew it all along if he wins? just some food for thought at this point i stil say the best shot at the race depending on what he is capable of doing this weekend with prado as much as tod to win the deby i dont think thats going to happen although it might because i usually like a horse that didnt race as a 2 year old because they are fresh but i know the down sid to that is this if you make on mistake and your dont and i think the know that and i think that is why he said if they dotn win the floriday derby they will do the preakness or the belmont. i alway have liked tod i think he a very good trainer and he is realistic about what he's got he doenst look past anything excet whats righ infront of him i think alot of trainers these days could take a lesson from that i wish dunkirk all the best for this weekend im keeping my fingers crossed and not expecting to much after all he is having prado ride and we all what west side burnie managed to do this past weekend eventhough that horse was over rated any was and i think alot of these horses this year are sligtly over rated you dont really have that one out standing horse whre you can just say that is the one

What is Friesan fire peeking at???