He's never been in stiff competition yet, so I don't understand the hype so early.  If he wins The Florida Derby (G1), and how he wins it against some stiff competition including Quality Road,Theregoesjojo, and Beethoven then he will solidify his position as one of the top Derby contenders along with The Pamplemouse, I Want Revenge, Fresian Fire, etc.

In my personal opinion, no horse this year has come close to Big Brown.

Dunkirk is in the same position as Big Brown: Having to run big in Fla Derby cuz of ZERO graded earnings...Brownie pulled it off (Fla/Ky Derbies) but that's a tall order! They HAVE to fire BIG Sat, wheras Baffert can bide his time with POTN and crank him up in May...Same with Quality Road--he seems late to the dance.... I DO like Dunkirk to win over Beethoven...Thinking Dunkirk will let it all hang out this Sat...Thinking it won't be enough first Sat in May....

He may be the Real Deal, but nobody can really know if he is until he goes up against horses that have a legitimate derby shot and freaks on them. I am pulling for him, but he hasn't proven himself yet. People are wowed by the big price paid for him and his good bloodlines. If he walks away in the Florida Derby easily his stock is bound to soar, if he runs poorly he probably won't  have enough graded stakes money to even run. I can't believe so many people bet money in the future pool on a horse that may not even make it to the derby.

Beyer wise alot of horses have been better than big brown......that crop of 3 yr olds was weak

Jason you could not be more right ! Thank you for stepping out and saying what needs to be said.  Dunkirk is no Quality Road and an allowance win against average horses proves nothing.  Dunkirk has benefited from speed falling apart in front of him.  While we all know Quality Road will be on or near the front, Dunkirk will have Theregoesjojo and Beethoven to contend with.  Is he the real deal NO and the so called experts need a reality check.  Just because you saw Big Brown do things no horse has done in 50 years don't think for a moment its a trend.  Dunkirk is no Big Brown. What you saw is a good allowance horse beat an average field.  Now he is stepping in against the big boys and Quality Road will carry his fast fractions all the way to the finish line. Dunkirk will be lucky to hit the board.

I am going to re-post my comments from the Lane's End discussion, so sorry for those who have already read it.

First, let me thank Jason for taking time out of his busy at Turfway to talk with me.

Putting aside their chances in the Kentucky Derby, the top two finishers in the Lane's End appear to have very bright futures. Hold Me Back is a $400,000 yearling by Giants Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, and Flying Private is a $700,000 yearling by Fusaichi Pegasus out of an Unbridled mare; you will find few better bred Derby prospects than these two. HMB and FP finished 4 lengths clear of the game but overmatched locals, Proceed Bee and Parade Clown, the fractions for the Lane's End were solid (no quarters under 25), the finishing splits were strong, and the final time was about 10 lengths faster than the Rushaway (winner Cliffy's Future).  

Hold Me Back, in particular, looks very promising, showing the ability to rate, accelerate on command, and finish up well. This was only his 4th career start, and his first start in 4 months, so we are talking about real talent. He figures to only get better from this, and Mott had thought enough of him to run him in the Remsen in his 3rd start. He has excellent connections being owned by Win Star, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by 3-time Kentucky Derby champ Desormeaux. It looks like 10 furlongs will be no problem for HMB, as he closed very well in the Lane's End at 9 furlongs, and had won at 8.5 fulongs twice before.

Having said this, I really don't like his chances in the Kentucky Derby. While he does have tremendous potential, he just doesnt have the foundation that is needed to win the Derby. The only chance he would have is if he was given another start in either the Blue Grass or Lexington, and I pray his connection do not go straight to the Derby. Even with another start before the Derby, he will only have 5 lifetime starts, and only 2 this year. Then, there is the question of whether he can transfer his form to dirt. All 3 of his wins have come on a synthetic track, winning on the Arlington poly, Keeneland poly, and now the Turfway poly. In his only start on dirt, he ran 5th, 18 lengths behind Old Fashioned in the Remsen. However, I am not ready to write-off his chances on dirt because of that one race.  Evidently, HMB was still very immature at the time of the Remsen and very underdeveloped, and has since grown physically and mentally. His breeding suggests dirt should be possible, but it is hard to know for sure. And even if he proves not to be a Triple Crown type, I think he can have a lucrative career, even if only on synthetics or turf.

Flying Private is more of a proven commodity on dirt, having run 4 times at Oaklawn, twice at Churchill, and twice at Saratoga. He also has experience at distances at a mile and over, but before his last start he just had not run particularly fast, with a top Beyer of 79.  In his last before the Lane's End, however, Lukas shortened him up to 6 furlongs, and, as Fire Slam and OP Fan pointed out, he ran very well, finishing an unlucky 2nd w/ a 87 Beyer. I thought before the Lane's End that the improved Beyer could have been the result of the turnback in distance, but his performance in the Lane's End demonstrated that he is just getting better; and he is getting better at the right time. Although he doesnt have as much career upside as HMB, having run in twice as many races, this foundation may make him a better Triple Crown contender. Lukas certainly knows how to win the Derby, and you know he loves to run in that race, so expect him to point FP to Churchill. The horse will probably need more graded earnings, so expect to see him in the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby. At best, FP is most likely a Derby longshot, but Lukas has gotten hot at the right time before (Charismatic 99').

As for the pre-race favorites, West Side Bernie and Bittel Road, neither really picked up his feet. It is hard to image the two camps proceeding forward to Churchill, but the two horses can certainly run better and still might prove themselves down the road. If the connections of Bernie' and Bittel' are still thinking Derby, it is hard to imagine that either horse got much from the Lane's End; so, I would think both would need another start before the Derby. In fairness, both probably do deserve another shot, but this is awfully late to be throwing clunkers.

I'm fairly high on this year's crop, particularly when compared with last year, and look forward to the rest of the preps.  I think the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood look fantastic, as each figure to attract at least 3 top Derby contenders.  

While I do think this crop has alot of talent and potential, few are proven commodities running a distance of ground on dirt. The California horses appear very strong, with Pioneer of the Nile, The Pamplemousse, and Chocolate Candy having proven themselves repeatedly in stakes. However, these 3 have yet to try dirt, and until they do we can only speculate.

With the Florida Derby hopefuls, we don't have any concerns about surface but there are questions of distance. Quality Road looked fantastic in the Fountain of Youth at a one-turn mile, but he needs to prove he can get 9-10 furlongs around two turns. And even if he is adept at a distance, will he be able to run back to his FOY performance? Quality Road appeared to be a nice horse going into the FOY, but few could have forseen such a dramatic leap in performance (113 Beyer). While I think Quality Road has big talent, he needs to put in another strong run before I am ready to jump on his bandwagon fully. The question for Dunkirk is not distance, but talent. While Dunkirk did face alot of adversity in his last start, and displayed alot of ability and professionalism to overcome it, the time for the race as well as the Beyer were solid, but not spectacular. Additionally, one must wonder whether he has the foundation to win a race like the Florida Derby in just his 3rd start, and the Kentucky Derby in his 4th. Although Big Brown and Barbaro captured the Roses with less than 5 career starts, a strong foundation has been one of the most telling variables in predicting Derby winners over the years. Theregoesjojo is another lightly raced horse (4 starts) that has never run over a mile. Jojo' has traded decisions with Quality Road, losing to that rival by over 4 last out, and must show that his development has kept pace with that of Quality Road. Beethoven is more of a proven qunatity, but he has yet to display the talent that will likely be needed to win the Florida Derby. However, if none of the three earlier discussed horses are able to handle their challenges, he just might be able to run them down in the stretch.

As for the Wood horses, I Want Revenge looked like a monster in the Gotham and is clearly better on dirt than synthetics. He has an excellent foundation with grade 1 stakes experience at 2 and has already demonstrated that he has the type of ability that it takes to win a Triple Crown race. Consequently, he should be very difficult to beat in the Wood. However, I have trouble declaring him the Kentucky Derby winner off just one super performance. He needs to prove that he can string together consecutive top performances, but if he does the Wood will be at his mercy. Imperial Council ran on nicely to pick up 2nd in the Gotham. This is a well bred horse with excellent human connections, and he has every right to improve in the Wood, particularly if he receives a better ride. I expect him to be much closer to the pace in the Wood and make a solid stretch bid. However, if I Want Revenge does not bounce or regress, I dont think Imperial Council is talented enough to be a threat for the top spot. While there is alot to like about Imperial Council, he has yet to display elite-level speed or talent, and will need to run faster if he is to be a serious Derby contender. However, I think he will continue to improve and just might be able to make up a few lengths on IWR. Mr Fantasy ran admirably in the Gotham in only his 3rd start, but it is hard to endorse him against Imperial Council and IWR at 9 furlongs and beyond.

In Arkansas, Old Fashioned must prove he can get a classic distance, and Win Willy needs to show he is more than a one-hit wonder. Of the top contenders, that leaves only Friesan Fire. FF is the only contender to have repeatedly proven himself in top level distance races on dirt. Prior to the Louisiana Derby, the major question was about his talent level/speed, but he ran a solid 104 in that race and showed a quicker turn of foot. On the negative side, I'm not enthusiastic about Jones bringing him straight into the Derby off 7 weeks rest, and really believe that a few others (Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile) might be more talented and will surpass him for Derby favoritism with a big Beyer performance in the coming preps.

Everyone is right...no one is big brown because of the illegal drugs Dutrow probably had him on...Ask Dutrow how that Belmont worked out where he could not lose too...

i think you are right that dunkirk doesn't look all that impressive. i feel easily that the fountain of youth was a much more impressive race. quality road was very impressive stalking a 45 and 2 half and drawing off to win, also theregoesjojo was very good in that race. dunkirk must win on saturday if he doesn't he will not have the graded earnings to make the derby. so to put your eggs in one basket in this race is going to prove tough. i like quality road and theregoesjojo to finish 1,2 again.

Many thoroughbred enthusiasts ANALYSE performances differently. When Old Fashioned won the Remsen it was widely reported that it was the best performance by a 2YO in 2008. I posted a thread questioning when a performance should be considered impressive. Old Fashioned became the early Derby favorite beating an over matched group. The same persons who crowned OF early derby favorite would not consider Street Hero’s victory as a maiden the G1 Norfolk Stakes as impressive. Which is the greater achievement, a win against an overmatched group or a maiden winning a G1 against winners?

Dunkirk is high profile. His purchase price was $3.7M; his dam won the Kentucky Oaks and is a million dollar earner; his sire a former champion 2YO, has produced what is obviously an excellent 2006 crop. There are those who see this high profile horse with two routine victories, in the hands of a high profile trainer and conclude that he is  a potential champion. He may very well turn to be a champion but right now he is average at best.

His negative:

(a)  Obviously had soundness issues as a 2YO thus the late start to his career.

(b)  Hid graded earnings dilemma will not be resolved in the FL Derby as he will be third at best.

(c)  He carries the burden of the million dollar mare club. No high profile broodmare i.e., million dollar earners have produced a KD winner.

(d)  He carries the burden of Mr. Prospector’s great grandsons. None have sired a derby winner to date. Many exist.

(e)  He carries the burden of having to defeat three or possible four colts sired by grandsons of Mr. Prospector i.e. Desert Party, Quality Road, Regal Ransom & Mayor

Marv. Mr. P’s grandsons have sired five of the last 13 KD winners and 3 of the last six.

(f)  He carries the burden of being sired by the stallion that sired the runner-up in 2008. None have ever sired the winner the following year.

Based on Performance he should not be in any top 10. To win the derby he has to overcome too many negatives and he is really not as good as he is hyped to be.

Freak is strong, but if you consider the sheer amount of ground loss in that allowance coupled with a slower track than the one Big Brown encountered for his allowance, I think you'll find it was every bit as impressive as Big Brown....It doesn't mean he won't bounce, but don't take that as an affirmation of your feeling, it could be it knocked him out.

If they didn't pay $3 million for him - we wouldnt be talking about him at all.

Dunkirk looks like a nice horse, but I think he's going to have his hands full with Quality Road and Jo Jo who both have better speed figures.  I think it may come down to how fast Quality Road can get around two turns and how the race unfolds.  Dunkirk does not seem to be another Big Brown to me, but he is a gray which makes him a favorite of the Derby Gods this year.

Until he proves himself worthy as many other derby contenders have already, Dunkirk = Dunclunk.

I will be there this saturday and I hope dunkirk runs away with it.

I laugh at the big brown comparison and the hype around Dunkirk. Quality Road fininshed his last race well, galloping out strong,and getting a 113 beyer. All I can say is I'm glad you can get decent price on QR this weekend based on hype, not on paper, he blow's dunkirk away. Dunkirk's a great horse, but derby favorite, come on!

Finally, someone who feels the way I do about Dunkirk!! He may become an amazing horse shortly here in the future, but at this point he is lagging FAR behind the rest of this years possible Derby winners.. How can a horse be a #1 contender when every horse behind him has done more, tried harder, ran faster and faced tougher??

He might prove be great runner in 2009 but relative to the Kentucky Derby he hasn't one penny of graded money to get in.

So all of his fans out there are really expecting something extraordinary: jumping up from a mere allowance victory and either win or place in a Grade 1 race.

Finishing 3rd in the Florida Derby would be a tremendous feat, but because he's late to the game it won't cut it (with earnings) getting in to the Kentucky Derby. It's a shame but also the risk any owner/trainer makes with such a sparing schedule before the KY Derby.

I think you guys are spot on with this one. I keep looking at the Dunkirk racing, looking to see if i could see what everyone else seem to see, But I haven't. I'm not going to knock him however, because who knows, maybe he takes a big step forward. He will need to if he wants to win this weekend.

At this point, He is definitely no Big Brown.

To date I think Old fashions Remson was much more impressive, I Want Revenge in the Gotham was in a deferent league, and there have been a number of more impressive runs this year.

I think every one is just playing follow, The want to say they call it first, or early.

Hey!!, this horse might just be as good as they think. We'll find out this weekend.

The good thing is, he's got Gomez, so i don't think there will be too many excuses.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a good horse.

But "Big Brown"?

Come on now.

and after you watched B Square's "breathtaking" performance" in the one turn mile[see Quality Road] at GP you ran to your nearest sports book and loaded up on Big Brown! Don't understand the comparison[s] to B Square and Dunkirk...one has just begun his carreer, the other has "painted his last picture". I know all the "experts"...remember the "breathtaking" move that Azeri threw out as a 2 yo., but the "experts" chose him overwhelming in the '92 edition of the 'Derby and he got trounced.[God Speed to the winner Lil E. Tee]....does your commonsense preclude you from looking beyond time[the famous Greybar quote might be in order]..and maybe your arguement of being untested may hold true, but it may also be the answer to his "unhurried" pace[after all he was 5 wide thruout], and Gomez never moved his hands until the stretch turn[he basically was out for a 3 f. workout]. The field was not your average 1x with many in there having shown decent form. If I were to compare B Square w/Dunkirk[and I beg your indulgence]...it would be their running style, where both seem to like to be outside runners. In my view one of the "genius" decisions by Dutrow was to elect to put B Square in the 20 pp when he could have selected other spots. There were many who questioned this move, but with the ability to use hindsight, I feel it played a big role in the colts performance on the first Saturday in May...and may I add I feel strongly contributed to his defeat in the Belmont, where Kent could not get to his favorite spot to advance his favorite running style. I know some "experts" like Gary Stevens and Frank Lyons promoted BSquare like he was "Big Red" in drag...Lyons went so far as to say he was the best horse "ever"..that's a mighty big compliment[but then again not so big if you knew that both Stevens and Lyons were on the Iavarrone pay roll]...let's give Dunkirk his chance, and maybe the "commotion" will iron itself out vis a vis the West Coast entourage!

He will finish 2nd to quality road in the flordia derby.he can move forward off that race and can be dangerous on derby day.

Dunkirk will be going up against more experienced horses on Saturday and that will tell us if he is for real or not. I personally don't believe he is all he is cracked up to be. At this point I think Theregoesjojoj is going to put in a smashing performance in the Florida Derby and Mr. Dunkirk will be left in the dust.

I am with Draynay in thanking you for stepping up and asking the question "what is with the hype?". Warrior's Reward who he beat by 3-4 lengths in his allowance did NOTHING in his graded stakes debut. I will be shocked if he makes it in the top two and would not be surprised to see him off the board.

I flew down and watched Quality Road win at Gulfstream Park. He did everything to establish his credentials. Hot pace, stiff competition, and he closed strongly. He's the real deal.

HI JASON:

I agree with you regarding Dunkirk. He's good but for many to compare him with BB in the same breath is amusing. Also, way too early to place him as the favorite for the Derby. Makes no sense! I think Quality Road will take him down.

Dunkirk isn't even the best 3 year old in his own stable Affirmatif. will blossom into the better 3 year old!

    Jason, I agree with you on Dunkirk.  I won't play him in the FL Derby and if he happens to win that one, I probably still wouldn't play him in the Derby.  If he beats me, so be it.  He was very wide into the 1st turn, but outside of that, he had a pretty decent trip.  Since the fractions weren't blazing for the 1st 1/2 or 3/4, overall he didn't lose much ground because of it & was able to sit 4 or 5 lengths off that pace & had settled into a nice position 3 wide down the backstretch before they even came out of the clubhouse turn.  Maybe if Warrior's Reward would have come back and won the TB Derby, I would have thought differently, but the fact is he didn't.  He flopped against a field that will not be a factor in the least in the Derby.

    My Derby favorite right now is I Want Revenge.  He may regress a little in the Wood and that's fine by me.  Monarchos did the same thing in the Wood after his impressive win in the FL Derby.  Besides, I'm looking for who will run the best race in May, not March or April.  I also like I Want Revenge for somewhat similar reasons that Cold Facts doesn't like Dunkirk.  I Want Revenge is a rarity these days in the fact that he isn't inbred anywhere in his 1st 5 generations on either side.  That screams soundness to me and that's something I like.  Also, IWR seemed to be able to navigate the tight turns on the inner track at Aqueduct fairly well and was able to kick home well.  A lot of horses, especially in the Derby, will lose the race if they lose ground on the turn (clubhouse or turn for home), which I don't think he will do.  He also showed the ability to look another horse in the eye, regardless of that horse's talent and put him away convincingly, which is another thing I like.  The only thing that I don't like about I Want Revenge is his jockey, Joe Talamo.  He's a talented young rider, but I would rather have someone with more experience.  I hope if he rides him in the Wood, he's smart enough to not beat the horse into sumbission and leave something in the tank for the Derby.

    My 2nd horse would be Friesan Fire.  He's a late April foal out of AP Indy so I think Larry Jones is right (and why wouldn't he be, he knows the horse better than anyone) in the fact that he's just now getting good.  I don't think they have gotten to the bottom of him yet so I obviously I think he can improve off of his last.  I know some people like to compare him to Pyro because of the whole Fair Grounds thing, but he reminds me much more of a horse like Afleet Alex than Pyro.  He might not be as fast as Afleet Alex, but he's game every time he steps on the track.  You know you will get your money's worth when you bet him.

    A lot of things can change between now and May 2nd, but if I had to pick 2, these would be my 2.  Good luck to everybody this weekend.  

Jason, depending on which site/blog you read the fields for the Wood and the Ill. Derby are anything but clear. I realize its still a bit early but when will we have a decent guess as to who is running where? We are talking 10 days away and the trainers are all playing much more closer to the vest then in the last several years - Any reason as to why that is the case?

Fair point about Dunkirk - he hasn't done enough yet by any means.  I am just as curious about the FL Derby.  He could win and we still might not know as much as we would like to know - as QR hasn't run 2 turns, could bounce off the last race, and did miss a work - it is never an excuse until they lose the next race;)

On Dunkirk - I have often wondered how Pletcher's go to guy, John Velasquez, has never been on him? Hmm, he spun long time commitment to Indian Blessing in Dubai to ride QR in FL. Derby but wouldn't cancel trip to Saudi Arabia last month to ride Dunkirk back in the allowance?  And didn't ride him in the maiden race either...

Dunkirk, broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park (GP) 1/24/09 @ 7f in 1:25, by 5 3/4 lengths. Came back @ GP 2/19/09 to win an allowance (ALW) race @ 1 1/8m in 1:50, by 4 3/4 lengths. He came from off the pace in both starts to draw away in the stretch. For speed figure players, the Beyer in his first race was 88, but he jumped up to a 107 in his second start. That big number is what put him high on many handicappers' Derby contenders lists. A 19-point improvement? Hmmm...

I also watched the videos of Dunkirk's maiden and allowance wins several times. Given the relatively poor quality of vids available on YouTube, it's hard to pick up important details. Even so, it seems to me that Dunkirk's action is kind of heavy and plodding. It was particularly striking to me in his ALW win, when the jockey worked hard to keep Dunkirk moving forward down the stretch.

Dunkirk wasn't facing tough fields in either race, so, to get a realistic idea of the their quality, I tried to find the next race of horses he beat, and could only find three who've raced again.

Santana Six was 2nd in Dunkirk's maiden race. Came back to break his maiden next out, getting a mile in 1:37 3/5. His Beyer was 93.

Stately Character was last in Dunkirk's ALW race. Came back to finish 2nd in his next race, an ALW @ 1/18m in 1:51 1/5. His Beyer was 90.

Warrior's Reward was 2nd in Dunkirk's ALW race, and he earned a 101 Beyer. Came back in the Tampa Bay Derby and finished 8th. Musket Man won the TB Derby, getting 1 1/16m in 1:43 3/5, with a Beyer of 93.

Given that info, the obvious next question for me: How real was that 107 Beyer assigned to Dunkirk for his ALW win? With only limited (and free) material available to me, I found this: Also on 2/19/09 at Gulfstream Park, Casey's On Call won a $75,000 claiming race, going 6f in 1:10 4/5, with a 99 Beyer. Hmmm...a 3-yr-old claimer whose 6f win was actually faster than the 1:11 3/5 6f fraction run the same day, on the same track in Dunkirk's allowance win. But the claimer got a Beyer 7 points under Dunkirk's.

The track record at Gulfstream Park for 1 1/8m is 01:47.8. The time of 1:50 is average, not an eye-opener. So...is Dunkirk's 107 Beyer for 1:50 at that distance an error? What do other readers here think?

Jason, Just a few comments on the topic. Is Dunkirk for Real?

First of all, I couldn't’t agree with you more that making him the Derby Futures betting favorite is shocking and unwarranted, however, this horse is for real. Certainly his foundation is lacking but his last race truly deserves tremendous respect. Off one race, going two turns for the first time, over a dead speed favoring surface, he was hung five wide virtually the entire trip and still finished strong. He’s a big well meant colt with top connections. They are surely playing catch up and I don’t believe he has the foundation to win in Louisville even with a win in Florida.

Dunkirk is a nice colt but I think he has a much better chance of winning the Travers.

Given his lack of seasoning he will not be a Derby winner.

Sorry if I disappoint any of his fans.

It is hard for me to believe that a horse with three starts and no 2 yr old starts could possibly win the derby.  Having said that, I have never seen a 3 yr old with just a maiden win, go wide on the first turn by about 8 or 9 horses, wide 4 or 5 horses on the far turn and win the race by 3 or 4 lengths. I do not think he can win on Saturday, but I do expect him to be closing at the end and stranger things have happened.  The gentlman who said that Big Brown was the greatest horse ever, has to be smoking something or he is in his teens.

Jason - thanks here is what my "research" has as of today:

WOOD - IWR,IC,Lime Rickey,Al Khali,JustaCoincidence, Hello Broadway,Nowhere to Hide

Ill. Derby - Musket Man, Mr. Fantasy,West Side Bernie

Any corrections or commetns are welcome. Thanks

nickie... no one is saying Dunkirk doesn't deserve a chance.  What I am saying is what is this horse doing on anyone's top 5 ?  Everyone acts like they have never seen a horse wide into the first turn win a race....

Like I have said before... no one is afraid of a horse that runs a 1:50 +

The Beyer for Dunkirk is listed as a 98 for the allowance win...did they adjust to 107?  98 is far more like it.

Dunkirk is not Big Brown. BB raced at 2 and then Dutrow used Winstrol to boot.

Dunkirk, No starts at 2. I don't know why all the expert racing analysts are jumping on his bandwagon.  WHO has he beaten besides mediocre allowance horses. Yes he ran further being wide in his last trip, other horses have done that and won too only to bounce on their next race.  The field for the Florida Derby is ok, no huge stand outs.  He may win and everyone will be glowing over him. Whoopie. Nice to read so many folks on here are being realistic about him. He is a beautiful horse who will be awesome come Travers time.

Coldfacts thank you for all your points on your post, you truly live up to your name on it!  

I agree with Andy..He is going against  a few good ones come Saturday..Plus the odds will be way too low for me to bet..top jockey.top trainer...I got a "Hunch" he won't be in the MONEY!!!!!!!

For Big Red... great post!  Very good information.  Makes me think Dunkirk is in way too deep this weekend.

Lets's remember Dunkirk sports the silks of the famed Ballydoyle operation.  These people win classic races every year, including a sweep of all four Irish classics last year.  Gomez flew cross country to ride this horse.  In a year where the Derby appears to have a ton of early speed this horse appears to have the running style to take advantage of it.  I expect him to win Saturday and be tough to beat on the first Saturday in May.

Quality road and JoJo will be the horses to watch, don't see Dunkirk being able to rival those 2 at this point but... Todd putting in a rabbit could prove interesting but think will help Jo Jo more then Dunkirk.

Dunkirk may get a rabbit ?  Give me a break....enough said... there is nothing real about this horse.  A rabbit...lol....its going to take more than a rabbit to beat Quality Road.

Hasty...the guy that I heard say it was Mr. Frank Lyons, the noted x trainer/buyer of horse flesh,sometime personality on one of the horse channels...and as I said he was on the pay roll!

Why is everyone so hung up on Beyers...one tool of many...this game of "handicapping" is after all an art, and not a science, and the nice thing about the Dunkirk non fans...you can express your feelings in kind at the windows! Whatta concept.

TO HASTY ROAD: I think too much has been made of Dunkirk being carried wide in that ALW race. He was third from the outside in the starting gate. As the field approaches the first turn, Warrior's Reward fails to make the turn. He carries Dunkirk and Sincero about 6 wide. But in a very short time, by the apex of the turn, all the horses are back in normal racing lanes. By the time they straightened out on the backstretch, Dunkirk was in an excellent spot.

He did move up willingly to take command in the stretch, but his action was heavy and plodding. His jockey worked really hard to keep the colt from stopping badly.

We'll see what he does in the Florida Derby, but count me among the skeptical about this horse. He's going to have to improve a ton to win the FL Derby, let alone the KY Derby.

The rabbit for the Florida Derby is interesting. Americans who follow racing over here will know that it is common for Coolmore horses. Red Rocks Canyon was used as a rabbit all last season to great effect but I think its a bit unfair.

Don't get me wrong, I love Aidan O' Brien as a trainer, but its not fair for the rabbit. Anyway, the fact that they are using a rabbit for Dunkirk suggests to me that they are not totally confident in the colts ability to win. Interesting. But I could be wrong as I have limited racing experience.

Jimmy Jerkens will win both the Derbies. Quality Road is the real deal.

Oh, by the way, HASTY ROAD, your screen name made me smile. He was well before my time following the sport, but I do know Hasty Road won the 1953 Preakness and was second in the Derby.

He may be best known as the sire of the stakes-winning mare, Broadway, who was the dam of Reviewer, the sire of Ruffian.

Just saw in Steve Haskins latest article that Pletcher may run a maiden rabbit to try and take Quality Road down in a speed duel early.  Jenkins says that Quality Road is perfectly capable of rating, so let him pull the rabbit out of his hat and get creamed.  I'd hate to see a legit contender taken down by that old trick.

It may be irrevelant, but that "rabbit" business has always bothered me.  Just doesn't seem quite ethical.  If there's early speed in the race anyway, fine, but to intentionally sacrifice a horse to try to set up your "big" horse just doesn't seem quite right.

It also doesn't sound like Pletcher is too concerned relative to Chocolate Candy in the SA (vs Take the Points).  Interesting assessment, not sure I agree with him.  I do think TtP is a good horse, really game and deserves a shot in the KD if he can get the $$$.

Big Brown stood out because the three year old crop last year wasn't a stong one. This year there are so many horses running over different surfaces producing speed figures much higher then last year. I think Dunkirk is overrated because hes untested and unproven. Winning big against nobodies at this time of the year doesnt mean much. If he can do what he did in the Gulfstream allowance then I'll eat my words. But hes got to be much faster as well as being just as visually impressive against top quality stock like Quality Road. Say he does win in Florida, it will take much more then that even to hang with I Want Revenge, Freisan Fire, POTN, or Old Fashioned. Plus,dare i dream that Rachael Alexandra goes to the Derby... then i think all the above mentioned are in a whole lot of trouble. Big Brown was a star against a black sky, the three year olds this year are talented and need to do more then win an allowance race to stand out.

At this point Quality Road is the one who compares more than favorably to Big Brown at the same point in his career. Dunkirk does not. In fact Quality Road has put up a much higher Beyer Fig than Big Brown ever did in his life at any distance. Last year at this time Big Brown was a mere allowance winner with a high Beyer of 106 at 1 mile and in comparison Quality Road has put up a 113 in a G2 Stakes at the same distance. There were distance questions surrounding Big Brown last year at this time as there are for Quality Road today. Big Brown answered them in a big way and I am pulling for Quality Road to do the same this weekend. I also like Theregoesjojo who ran a big race last out but had the misfortune of lining up against Quality Road in that one. Dunkirk has a long way to go to get to where those two are right now. In his favor he's lightly raced with a ton of potential and is being handled by capable connections. We saw what happened to Imperial Council when he was whipped when facing a more seasoned horse in I Want Revenge. Imperial Council will be much better next time. I think Imperial Council is at least as good if not better than Dunkirk so the task is quite tall indeed. One thing for sure this edition of the Florida Derby is much stronger than last years (outside of Big Brown)and the winner will be a factor the first Saturday in May.

LOL AT ALL OF YOU !! U ALL OVE THAT SWEET FOUNDATION OF THREE THATS RIGHT 3 CARREER STARTS BY QUALITY  ROAD AND 2 BY DUNKIRK LISTEN HOW DUMB U ALL THAT LOVE THE 2 YO FOUNDATION PLUS THAT FOY FIELD WAS WEAK I LIKE BOTH DUNKIRK AND QR BUT THIS IS A 2 TWO TURN RACE NOT ONE OF U HAVE MENTIONED EITHER A HUGE QUESTION FOR QUALITY ROAD IMO AND WE KNOW DUNKIRK CAN RUN ALL DAY LONG HE WILL RELISH THE MILE AND A QUARTER IN DERBY WITH TONS OF SPEED TO RUN AT......ALSO TO THE CLOWN THAT SAID HE HAD ISSUES AT 2???? LOL AT YOU THIS WAS ALL PLANED GO LOOK AT HIS WORKS FROM NOV 1ST TILL NOW ITS THE PLAN TO HAVE A FRESH HORSE COME MAY HE KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT HE IS DOING REMBER PLETCHER WON HIS ONLY TRIPLE CROWN RACE WITH RAGS WHO HAD 1 START AS 2 YO AT CHURCHILL AT 5.5 FURLONGS THEN BROKE HER MAIDEN AT SA THEN WON GRADE ONE I THINK TOD HAS LEARNED ITS HIS NOT THE OLD FASHIONED WAY DUNKIRK WILL ROLL IN THE FLA DERBY AND WILL HIT TOP 3 IN DERBY MARK MY WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Big Brown is an aberration (and looking back now I don't think talent could have carried him through the Triple Crown, although his Belmont will probably remain a mystery until long after all his connections have moved on). I detest the recent "trend" of giving a horse so few races leading up to the Derby. Maybe it'll net a Derby win, but we might as well stop dreaming of a Triple Crown winner.

I don't think Dunkirk is Big Brown, or even close to Big Brown, but I won't know until the Florida Derby.  I think it would be better to wait on him until the summer and fall classics, and if he's good enough, the Dubai World Cup next year.

Barbara makes the same point I made awhile back and it is a good one. Johnny V. staying home to ride Quality Road. This may be the year that he breaks his goose egg in the Derby and wouldn't it be ironic that he didn't do it with Pletcher. I was impressed with both Quality Road and Theregoesjojo in the Fountain of Youth. The distance question will be answered for both this weekend. I rate Dunkirk behind both of those as he hasn't run fast enough to date. As for Pletcher he better hope his "rabbit" is capable of going a 1:10 6f himself or he'll be left in the dust. So far this rabbit has only finished 4th and showed no early speed in a short sprint. Makes you kinda scratch your head. It reminds me of last years Belmont where they ran a mere Maiden just so he could be there to step on Big Browns foot after Brownie spooked at the start and veered into him. Sometimes those plans work out I guess.

Is that fletch or retch?

Sounds to me like you are getting ready to burst a blood clot. Calm down a bit buddy it's a few weeks to the Derby and you may not make it that long if you keep it up.

I'm thinking you must be one of the ones who pounded down the futures odds on Dunkirk. Thanks from all of us "clowns", you gave us better value on the real contenders!!

Flech 321- I genuinely respect your comments, but in regard to Quality Road not being able to get

the distance, remember Smarty Jones also by Elusive Quality ,and Raven's Pass?  They said Smarty had a sprinter's pedigree, and look what happened.  As I recall, he won the Derby and Preakness.

I THINK DUNKIRK IS GOOD, BUT BIG BROWN WAS BETTER MOST LAST YEAR! HE LOST IN THE BELMONT TOO! DUNKIRK IS NOT GOING TO TRIPLE CROWN. I DO THINK DUNKIRK WILL SHOW UP IN THE FLONDA DERBY BUT THAT IS IT. I WANT TO SEE HIM WIN BY 4 OR 5 THIS WEEKEND.  I WOULD TAKE DUNKIRK AT CHURCHILL DOWNS IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY IF HE WON BY THAT MUCH.  ONE RACE A AT TIME! ONE RACE AT A TIME! ISN'T THAT RIGHT Old FASHIONED!!!  LOL!

Is Dunkirk the real deal?  Who knows.  He's had two very nice races.  Neither of them are good enough to win either the Florida Derby or the Kentucky Derby.  But, so what?  The "real" question is will he continue to improve and how much.  I haven't seen any 3yr old so far who has run well enough yet to win the Kentucky Derby.  Whoever wins that race will be a much-improved horse then than he (or she) is now.

Rabbit- angle works get if you can sucker the speed horses into a speed dual. Can Quality Road rate or will he chase the rabbit. Yea this happens in human races to so that it sets up a closer. Fair- well these days as in the past someone will do whatever it takes too get a advantage.Happens in football home team sits in the shade visitors in the sun.Trainers objective is to win.

Justine, wishful thinking on Dunkirk possibly winning the Dubai World Cup next year.  Has Coolmore ever had a big time horse race beyond 3 years old?  Anyone know?  I don't even think he'll make it to the fall classics.  I say the Travers at Saratoga will be his last race.  The Unbridled Song's seem to be unsound as a whole so I don't think they'll take the chance.  Could be a big reason why Dunkirk never raced as a 3 year old.

TO BARBARA: You said the Beyer for Dunkirk is listed as 98, and asked if they adjusted up. I can't answer the question as to whether or not there's been an adjustment. However, if you go here www.brisnet.com/.../f10.pdf you'll see all the PPs for 3-yr-old KD hopefuls. Dunkirk's PPs show an 88 for his first race and an 107 for his second race. This is the (free) data I've been referencing.

Are brisnet's speed figures not the same as those shown in DRF PPs?

What Pletcher without a Derby horse?  We'll just make one up.  

Dunkirk is the very definition of "Derby Fever."  He is a nice colt but right now he is seriously out classed in every sense (stakes earnings, # races won, quality of the fields, etc. etc).  He would be a hard bet even if by fluke he won the Florida Derby.  

Pletcher reminds me alot of the 80's-90's D. Wayne Lukas.  Never saw a horse that did not have a shot in the Derby. Many of them "wonder horses" or over priced purchases who's owners caught the "fever."  Was Houston's loss in the Santa Anita Derby due to dehydration?  No.  Despite the 2.9 million dollar price tag, it was more likley due to Sunday Silence.  

I hope the rabbit wins!  

So who has quality road beaten? I can't wait to hopefully see dunkirk beat Q.R. and the rest of the field..

Draynot... WE AGREE !!!!!

TO DRAYNAY, you wrote, "Everyone acts like they have never seen a horse wide into the first turn win a race..."

Agreed. I don't get the fuss over Dunkirk's allowance win.

ssc: nice comment on the high price tag theory.

Householder: The rabbit has done it before. 20 years ago they entered a rabbit all the time and nobody cried foul. That's horseracing but sometimes the rabbit gets loose on the front and everybody sitting chilly waiting for him to come back and the rabbit wires them.

Dunkirk has done nothing wrong,he has done what he had to do in impressive fashion.Now he steps up to grade 1 stakes class,he deserves

his chance and we should know if we are talking Kentucky Derby or not after this race.

I am from the old school.  How can this horse be so acclaimed without a stakes win?  Can he outrun Quality Road, Friesen Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, etc., hell no!! I wouldn't bet on him saturday

with Todd(Big Ego) Schrup's money!!!

I agree the rabbit may help Jojo more than Dunkirk. If he can show that same turn of foot going 2 turns it should be jojo QR going 1-2 maybe beethoven gets 2nd if pace is really hot. Dunkirk 4th. Wont see the board or KY in may!

FBR - yeah, Brisnet must be different - the DRF PP has a 78 and 98 for Dunkirk as I recall.  That is a 20 point jump from Race 1 to 2...I think Beyers are less and less accurate or useful - and the other speed rating sheets are more indicative of a horse's ability.

Wow... now I agree with the_wiz?  What is going on...lol... I agree unless this rabbit can run a 1:10 he won't be worth much.  Seems a little desperate on Pletcher but he doesn't exactly know how to win Triple Crown races with a colt does he?

I agree with everyone. I don't see Dunkirk winning Saturday and definitely not the Derby.

TO: FLETCH

Here's a tip! I think you need to repeat the 5th grade. Spelling is way off!

If Quality Road gets loose on the lead in 47 and change he will not only win, but he will look like Seattle Slew. Anybody hear anything about the starting gate being positoned too close to the timer in the FOY, accounting for the slower 1st quarter? Could he have actually ran a 1:34?!?

In my opinion, Dunkirk did some impressive things in his first two starts. Probably more than alot of 3 year olds would be able to handle. The other factor you have to consider is why would Garret Gomez fly over there to ride that horse in an allowance race? There's more than enough capable jockey's in Florida that could've handled that assignment. Was it b/c he has a relationship with the connections b/c of Rags to Riches? Was Ron Anderson trying to secure another mount in case something happened to Pioneer of the Nile? Who knows. It's all speculation. As far as him being a plodder...? Well, we've seen some horses win with some very unorthodox action this year. IE: Fresian Fire & The Pamplemousse. Look, is this horse in my top 5? No. You need a graded stakes win in order to jump into that level for me. Will I bet him on Saturday? Maybe underneath in th exotics. Based on handicapping I can't put him on top. The value won't be there and there are other horses who have accomplished much more that will be at an even price that should be put on top. But it's hard to say that you can't be impressed with the way he's one both of his starts. Both times dealing with adversity. At least we know he can handle it. I'll let him beat me on Saturday, but I can see why people would get excited about this horse.

I can see both things happening. First of all, I think Dunkirk will win the Florida derby. The race will be close win Theregoesjojo 2nd with Quality Road 3rd and beethoven 4th. This scenario would benefit me the most because I have other horses higher on my list like Friesan Fire, I want Revenge and the Pamplemousee. With Dunkirk winning it makes my odds on the other derby hopefuls higher and giving much more of a payoff.

The latter can happen where he just does not show up and lets the other horses run with the derby and creating a more balanced derby odds with the top contenders.

I see no problems with Dunkirk using a rabbit on Sat--He needs to win the race! Let Quality Road rate if he's all that good--he'll have to at Churchill--everyone will have to rate off Pamplemousse or else they will lose for sure! As for closers, Beethoven is my choice to come with Dunkirk--JoJo looks like a middle distance guy--nice horse though....It's all about the first Sat in May...But Dunkirk is at a disadvantage cuz he HAS to run BIG this Sat...Whereas I Want Revenge/Pioneerof The Nile/The Pamplemousse all have the needed graded earnings and will not have to be fully cranked up for THEIR Derby preps....For that reason I believe The Florida Derby will NOT have the Derby winner this year...I'll box Dunkirk/Beethoven and hope for fast fractions---1 1/8 mi is a "specialty distance"...I think these two get the distance--Quality Road has to prove it for me....

The Pamplemousse ran fast in Sham--they were really spread out early---then he opened up on them impressively....Freisan Fire also opened up on them impressively---These two have stood out for me--They are both really nice horses....Here's hoping they ALL get to Louisville HEALTHY---Looks like a deep batch!

Barbara is absolutely correct that Brisnet and Beyers are very different figures and use different scales of measurement. The figures For Big Red cited were not Beyers; they were Brisnet figures. A Beyer figure adjusts final times to the track variant that day, or in lay terms, adjusts the performance figure to how fast the track was that day. I believe that Brisnet figures tend to be higher than Beyers, and I personally trust a Beyer fig more than a Brisnet figure. What does a Brisnet fig take into account other than final time? (real question, not rhetorical) In general, when most on the Blog discuss speed figures, Beyers are being referenced. I was very confuesed by For Big Red's original post because I knew Dunkirk's Beyers were not that high.

For the record, Dunkirk's Beyer for his last was 98. That is about 7 lengths slower than Quality Road's 113 in the Fountain of Youth and 3.5 lengths slower than Big Brown's 106 in his allowance win prior to the Florida Derby last year. As a further comparison, Dunkirk's 98 is many lengths slower than I Want Revenge's 113 for the Gotham. However, to give Dunkirk some credit, that 98 is very solid given it was only his second start. Interestingly, Dunkirk's Beyer for his maiden was very slow, and I think Barbara is right with it being a 78. In comparison, Big Brown ran a 90 when breaking his maiden first time out in September of his 2 year old campaign. Thus, using Beyers, Dunkirk seems a few steps slower than Big Brown was at the same time in his career.

For further clarification, Musket Man's Beyer for his Tampa Bay Derby is 90 (not the 93 Brisnet fig For Big Red cited).

I am not too concerned that the 6 furlong final time for claimers was faster than the 6 furlong split for Dunkirk's allowance race. Given that Dunkirk and the rest of his field still had 3 furlongs to run, I would have expected them to run a much slower 6 furlongs. Now, If Dunkirk had run only 7 or 8 furlongs, I would be much more concerned.

The other points For Big Red made were valid. Whether using Beyers or Brisnet, Dunkirk's figure for his 2nd race was much higher than the first race. Is he improving rapidly, or could he bounce?  Also, regardless of the figure used, the horses that finished behind Dunkirk have not returned to run high number races next time out. This brings the quality of that allowance field into question.

DRF (Daily Racing Form) uses Beyer speed figures, and have done so since 1992.

Are Brisnet figures used for Equibase and some racetrack programs?

Let me start off by saying that I thought Dunkirk's allowance NWx1 was very impressive. He appeared to me, to be much the best. He was very wide throughout, and raced very greenly, and showed the heart and the obvious talent that he needed to show to win, despite the obstacles (being very wide and racing greenly). Part of the issue, is that three year-olds are still growing and still developing (maturing and improving), albeit, very quickly. It is a process. For some, the improvement comes quickly. For some, it takes considerably longer. And come the first Saturday in May, we are going to ask those 3 year-olds that have demonstrated the most talent to us, thus far, to do something that they have never done before - run in a mile and a quarter race and win the most prestigeous race in the United States. It is asking a lot, and barring a dead heat, only one horse will do it. After months and months of expectation and the planning, the workouts and all of the training, all the races leading up to the big one, and still you hope that you've timed it right - done everything that you needed to do for the horse, and that somehow, the racing gods will allow your horse to prevail despite any or all obstacles during the Kentucky Derby race, is truly one herculean task to consider.

In consideration of the above scawl, it is my belief that Quality Road is a freak. I have absolutely no doubt that distance and stretching out will not be a problem for him. The dam side is loaded with distance loving horses - Strawberry Road, Nijinsky II, Alydar. It is a non-issue, especially after I had pointed out on an earlier blog, how Quality Road had finished the Fountain of Youth (he was still reaching out through the finish line), and how he had galloped out (he beat Theregoesjojo by 4 1/4 lengths in the race but, was approximately 9 lengths in front of him after galloping out after the race, going into the first turn. In Quality Road's pedigree profile, he is one of few horses amongst Derby contenders, that has points (albeit 1) in the Solid category (having an ancestor that was adept at running distances between 1 1/4 - 1 1/2 miles. I will not mention the physical size of the horse again. He is huge. Is it any surprise that they have taken their time with him? A total of 3 races he has had, 2 with Beyers of 101 (as a 2 year-old) and 113, all legit. The race he lost, he was sick, Jimmy noted that the horse's coat was dull in the paddock prior to the race, and the horse became more symptomatic after the race, besides which a "bug" had been going through Jimmy's barn beforehand.

Also, something happened during the running of the Fountain of Youth that, I am choosing not to disclose just yet, and that I have failed to see noted by anyone who made comments about the race afterwards, that if one knew, could only cement a very high opinion of Quality Road.

Let them all have good trips and come home safe.

I just don't like dunkirk's foundation. He has a pretty pedigree, but 2 or 3 races under his belt is not enough. A lot of things are stacked up against him, but who knows. Quality road will need to show that he can rate with pletcher throwung in a rabbit. Theregoesjojo may win coming from the back. We'll see.

Quality Road will be out for an afternoon stroll in the Florida Derby.  The real race will be on for second place between Beethoven, Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo.  

It is a very knotty affair for that second spot.  I would like Dunkirk to prevail but Beethoven and Theregoesjojo are both coming to rrrun.  I wish that the Gulfstream track was less biased towards front runners but I guess that the respective connections know what they have to deal with in order to get to Churchill Downs.  Very strong possibility that the Kentucky Derby winner is being showcased in this race.  Let's enjoy.  The 3rd and 4th place runners may have to try to pick up the pieces in the Preakness.

By the way Jason, keep an eye on Jose Adan in the UAE Derby.

fletch321, you are allowed to disagree with contents of a post but I do not believe it is civil to disrespect any poster by classifying them as dumb and labeling one as a clown. It was noted that you posted in CAPS and this immediately exposed your limitations and because of this you are pardoned. Since you have seen it fit to dispute that Dunkirk had soundness issues let’s examine the facts. Dunkirk Foaled January 23, 2006, by my calculation he was fully three on 01/26/2009. By your account his trainer delayed his entry into racing to have a fresh horse for the 1st Saturday in May. Because of this plan he is now contemplating using Dunkirk’s $2.6M Unbridled Song stable mate as a rabbit in the FL Derby. Well if that was in fact his trainer’s plan, you are labeling the wrong person a clown. Why craft a plant to put your horse behind the eight ball. The $2.6M Unbridled Song colt that is likely to be the rabbit for Dunkirk has only raced once. Since you are familiar with Todd P’s plans for his youngsters, what is the plan for this expensive colt? Does Todd P want him to be fresh for Preakness or Belmont? You should assign labels befitting of yourself to others.

Special efforts are made to get mares to foal in January. January foal usually have a maturity advantage on the 1st Saturday in May. They can be trained harder because they are structurally more developed. Late foals are the ones that are usually late to enter racing for the obvious reasons. I assure you if Dunkirk didn’t have soundness issues he would have started long ago. If it was no soundness issues, then he was backward as a 2YO.

On the subject of labels, which label would you apply to connections have done the following:

(a) Purchase a colt for $17M and name it The Green Monkey? Wouldn’t it be wiser to purchase 17 horses for $1M each. Irrespective of how bad their luck might be, it is unlikely that at least one would not win a race.

(b) Purchase a colt for $3.7M a produced from a G1 millionaire dam and assign it a name that was used nine times previously. No millionaire dam has ever produced the winner of the Derby or any of the other two legs of the Triple Crown.

(c) Purchase a colt for $2.6M produced from a Storm Cat mare when not one of the 281 dams sired by Storm Cat has ever produced the winner of a TC race. This colt has one race to date and was beaten a distance fourth. It was to be expected as the records do not lie.

This medium provides an opportunity for lovers of Thoroughbred Racing to have meaningful exchanges. Sadly there are some poster that lack the capacity to exercise decency in their participation in the process.

I won't be excited about Dunkirk or Quality Road until I see what they do in the Florida Derby. But I'm doing to take a wait and see ...coming from someone who still holds out faint hope for Mr. Hot Stuff and Flat Out.

draynay,

I got your back on this one....lol

Barbara,

BRIS ratings and Beyer Figs are different. I was wondering the same thing about if they had adjusted Dunkirk's Beyers until I saw the web page to go to listed by Go Big Red as Brisnet. Dunkirk's 98 in his last is still 15 points behind Quality Roads last. Dunkirk jumped 20 Beyer points last out do you think he can jump another 15 this time? Of course if Quality Road can't handle the distance he may not have to. My money is on Quality Road. Theregoesjojo has a shot in here as well.

I cant't wait for Q.R. to get a smackdown this saturday and see all of your comments next week. lol..

Fletch easy on the caps. It sounds like you are screaming at us through your comment. p.s. nothing wrong with bad spelling or grammer in my opinion i suck at spelling and still get by quite nicely..:)

dunno why the fuss over price tag for Dunkirk[how exactly do you think IEAH gets the headlines]...Jerkens has been high on his runner for a long time.The FOY was not a surprise to him.I would not overlook the runners in that race as being slaggards. Going into that race I remember it being filled with a lot of "early types",[including 'Quality] yet he showed me something by laying off a bit. I also applaud Jerkens for looking at the glass being 1/2 full when asked about the "rabbit" issue. If he wants to win the Derby he will need to relax both before and during that "heat". Jerkens has said from the start that this guy has the intelligence to match his physical abilities.We all know his dad[the "Chief"] and the acorn doesn't fall too far from the tree. If Jerkens thinks he may have a Derby quality runner, I believe him.And don't forget dunkirk needs this race a lot more than Quality[graded money]. I am a fan of both runners, and hope they come out of therace healthy because as a lot of you have expressed, if Dunkirk doesn't make the Derby, it should be a fun 3yo. year for all of us fans to enjoy with Dunkirk and Quality right in the middle of it. Let's hope they both stay sound and may the best prevail.

fletch321: I read your comments about Dunkirk. How do you know he didn't have issues as a 2 yr old? Do you work for TP? Do you rub the horse? Give me a break the plan was NOT to run him as a 2 yr old? No trainer in his right mind would sit on a 2 yr old that was ready to run, never mind one they paid big bucks for. Your reading way to much into that one. Careful who your calling a clown, it could come back and bite you.( P.S. lose the caps please).

Pletcher doesn't seem to have to much confidence in his Horses. He needs a rabbit for Dunkirk and he pulled Take The Points out of the SA Derby because he's afraid of The Pamplemousse and POTN

Big Red,

Not that it amounts to a hill of beans but Hasty Road won the 1954 Preakness, not 1953.  Incidentally, maybe someone out there can help me. In 1954, Correlation was the favorite for all three triple crown races, and lost them all.  Did this apply to any other horse?

Of course we have all seen horses go wide in allowance races.  What we have not often seen is a highly inexperienced horse going that wide but still managing to draw off in the stretch. Dunkirk also showed great professionalism in his debut, in which he recovered from a slow break.  The lack of foundation is a concern but he clearly is already a professional on track.  This, combined with his run-all-day pedigree and top of the line connections, is why so many people are enthusiastic about him.  So while I hate to be the lone dissenter in this happy crowd, there is ample reason to be excited by him.  Hopefully he lives up to this on Saturday.  

Quality Roads FOY was by far more impressive than Dunkirks alw. win. If Dunkirk blows away QR in a real good time, then maybe the experts are right, would still be very difficult to bet him on derby day.

To Curlin:  "Has Coolmore ever had a big horse beyond the age of three?"  Please!  How about Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, High Chapparel, Soldier of Fortune, Yeats, Septimus.  Lets try to be a little more informed.

im so bummed my boy Beethoven is not entered. I am starting to worry he won't earn enough to make the Derby...if he is healthy enough by that time to race.

Enough of this Dunkirk blah - lets start to look at the Wood, where the Derby winner will surely come from this year. hard to be from LA and have to admit the WOOD is the key race this year but .. there were 31 entered and the field looks like this as of today:

Al Khali

Atomic Rain

I Want Revenge

Imperial Council

Just a Coincidence

Lime Rickey

Danger to Society - ?

Flying Private

Miner's Escape - ?

Mr. Fantasy

Nowhere to Hide

Santana Six - ?

Toby the Coal Man -?

OK a couple notes on Dunkirk

As mentioned previously I saw his first race and although slow, he was a winner at all points and looked awesome. Second start although he won by many, higher beyer, and went wide I was was less impressed.

I have whomever in the the same class in FL. Quality Road was super but if you watch the other races on the same card to seemed very speed biased course. Lets see the FL Derby then classify.

As to the BB comparing. IF DUNKIRK WAS RUNNING LAST YEAR INSTEAD OF BB HE WOULD BE MY CHOICE. Last years group were as bad I can remember going to the Derby. I am not taking it from BB accomplishments as he could only beat what was against him, but that was a really, really, weak group. This crop is much better.

A daring move to challenge a NW3? I am in agreement, but think it only logical, hardly daring as mentioned by someone after the original post. As for experts? Would you like to bet serious money on the selections over the last ten years? I can honestly say I did better than any I can recall in print, although they have proof of their wins and losses-I only have the fact that pre-online I had bookmakers refuse my action after hitting them hard a few times. I had BB on top last year in a small tri key and wouldn't even say he was one of my Derby pick winners, I'd be ashamed to boast about a $5 and change winner in a 20 field.

Dunkirk, if he blows away the FL which I think is possible even if I don't like him, will be similar odds-on in the Derby. As a gambler, I hope he does so I can bet against later.

Not sold but watching (I think both fav's are beatable I just don't love anybody in the FL Derby and I bet where my opinion is strong only eg tri at FG )---those who hate him so much should take some money out of the bank for this weekend--here's your chance to get rich---he will be favored over QR. Good Luck!

Jason, there has been a lot of noise about the "win and your in" race for the European entry. How is that so different than say the Illinois Derby where whoever wins it will have enough to get in as well. And from the looks of it the field may not be that tough to really "warrant" it. Thoughts??

Field just out for the FLa Derby - Danger to Society adds a whole new wrinkle to this race. And the rabbit is in!!

Toby the Coal Man

2 Quality Road

3 Casey's On Call

4 Dunkirk  

5 Sincero

6 Theregoesjojo  

7 Danger to Society

8 Europe  

9 Stately Character

Thanks GunBow and Wiz.  

Would love to know his Ragozin and Thoro-graph numbers, too.

On QR - I see him bouncing off that high Beyer and/or suffering for that missed work coming up to this race.  And I am slightly skeptical of his ability to get 2 turns as effectively.  That said, I think QR is very fast and talented and has proved it.  I could see Dunkirk not improving enough...and yes the 20 pt. jump for him last out makes me feel that was too much and/or Beyers are off.  Dunkirk is an enigma to me.  I would never rate him as high as he is by many media/bloggers based on lack of info to date.    

ASPRADLING,

Unfortunately, he's officially off the trail. He'll point to the Summer races.

Jason, agree. My bad.

J B STONER,

 If Quality Road gets beat on Saturday it won't be the first or last time anyone was wrong. Pick your own and we'll see what happens.

The rabbit is good.  It is like OF's loss.  Here is another who better learn to run with some speed or learn to rate.  The first turn in the Derby is always a rodeo.  Pushing, shoving, climbing, clipping heels, trying to "savage" one another. Perhaps some barrel racing or cutting horse breeding may be the way to go.  

TO GUN BOW: I read your post above in which you discuss my use of Brisnet speed figures. You wrote: "The other points For Big Red made were valid." Well, gee. I can rest easy now.

The fact of the matter is that, with unemployment heading toward 11% here in California, anything that's FREE is very welcome. I don't have access to DRF PPs, and came across the Brisnet free ones while searching for Friesan Fire's PPs. Since I never used Brisnet before, I had no way of knowing the speed figures in their PPs are not Beyer figures.

Sorry if I confused anyone. It was completely unintentional.

Perhaps I'm being thin-skinned about your post. But your tone seemed unnecessarily condescending to me, especially since, when Barbara asked her question, I quickly responded that I was using Brisnet PP's. I provided a link, and also was the one who asked her if there is a difference between Brisnet and Beyer.

When a person asks a question, as I did re Brisnet vs. Beyer figures, I should think it's obvious they lack knowledge about that issue.

In any case, I don't use speed figures in any way except as a rough guide. Both Brisnet and Beyer have Dunkirk jumping way up in his ALW race from his maiden race. Yet, in actually watching the video of both races, I agreed with Jason. To my eye, the colt actually seemed to run less easily in the ALW.

To see what I mean, compare vids of Old Fashioned's race in the Rebel to Dunkirk's ALW. You'll see similar tired action from both. Both were were stopping. The difference between the two races is that the Rebel had a strong closer in Win Willy, while there wasn't anything of quality behind Dunkirk.

Dunkirk may be something special, but IMO he didn't show it in his two races. The Florida Derby will tell the tale.

Jason, Dunkirk is bred in the purple and if he runs to his pedigree he should be an exception colt. He will be facing a colt in the FL Derby that I think has the best pedigree of the 2006 crop. However, this colt has not been running to this pedigree. The colt is Stately Character (Pleasant Tap - London Valley)

This colt’s first four generations contain the winners of 10 Triple Crown races. Grand sire Pleasant Colony (Kentucky Derby & Preakness) His sire’s dam Never Knock who was also the dam of Derby winner Go For Gin, was sired by Stage Door Johnny (Belmont) The grand sire of his dam London Valley is Seattle Slew (Triple Crown) His second dam was sired by Riva Ridge (Kentucky Derby & Belmont) His third dam was sired by Damascus (Belmont & Preakness)

His sire Pleasant Tap has been one of the most versatile participants in the Breeder Cup history. He participated in four different races over a four year period. He was sixth in the 1989 Breeder Cup Juvenile; eight in the 1990 Breeders Cup Turf; second in 1991 Breeders Cup Sprint and 1992 Breeders Cup Classic. It appears he got better with age.

Stately Character is bred to get 10 furlongs pulling a bus. Sadly he appears to lack the class of the top colt in the FL Derby field. Could it be that he is a late developer like his sire? I have heard the term “Light bulb going on” used regularly. Could his pedigree light bulb get stitched on for an upset in the FL Derby?

Your thoughts will be appreciated.

Note to Barbara, I believe if any of the contenders in the Florida Derby are likely to regress, the one most likely to, I feel, would be Theregoesjojo. Why? McPeek had said weeks ago that he would not have his horse "cranked up for the Fountain of Youth." He was going to have the horse cranked up for his next race. Unnfortunately, Theregoesjojo missed the crucial work he was suppose to have because the track was sloppy. Oh, the horse worked out that day but, McPeek (as most trainers do) do not want to breeze their horses, especially their good ones, on a less than ideal track, especially with what is at risk there. Thegoesjojo had a mediocre sort of workout. I will be very surprised if he hits the board on Saturday. Jimmy Jerkens, on the other hand, must have been paying attention, because he "snuck" Quality Road out of the barn while it was still dark and the track was fast, and before the rains came. He said he got his horse's first half of his workout in 48 and change but, "it was so dark I really had difficulty seeing the horse." Jimmy may do a little something tomorrow or Friday "just to open up his lungs a little bit." P.S. - Where do you think the clockers were early Saturday morning when Quality Road worked out? They were home sleeping. You can rest assured Jimmy got the work that Quality Road needed, and on a dry track. If Quality Road doesn't win Saturday, it won't be because of Jimmy Jerkens. He spent 20 years as his dad's assistant, before he decided to go out on his own. And I'll plant another seed in your head. Who knows what time Quality Road really worked in? Whatever it was, I'm certain it was close to exactly what Jimmy wanted Quality Road to do.

Good Luck, whatever you do.

I will be betting a jo-jo, quality road exacta box. I too am not as impressed with dunkirk. slow time, bad field, no foundation.

For Big Red:

I was not trying to be condescending. In fact, by pointing out the differences in Beyers and brisnet figs, I thought that my post could possibly be taken negatively. So, I put the "the other points made were valid" to give you some respect, not to be demeaning. Unfortuantely, sometimes subtlety is hard with only the written word, and for that I apologize. My intentions were the opposite of what you read into them.

What I wanted to say is that although you confused the Beyers and brisnet figures, the points you made were valid: 1) Both figures have Dunkirk improving alot in his 2nd race, perhaps too much. Did he really get THAT much better, or were the figs weighted upwards too much. And if the figs are correct, will he bounce?  2) That big bump in his 2nd fig (for both beyers and brisnet) has not been validated by the next-out performances of the also-rans. Thus, the quality of the field Dunkirk beat in that allowance has been thrown into question.

However, I did feel that I needed to clarify the issue of what figs you were citing, and then post the actual Beyers for the races you discussed. I was just stating the facts. In your last post on the subject you had written "Are brisnet's speed figures not the same as those shown in DRF PPs".  Barabara had responded "FBR - yeah, Brisnet must be different".  I commented as a 3rd party by stating that Barabara was corect, that Beyers and Brisnet figures are different, and then provided the Beyers for Dunkirk. A number of posters had commented on your original post, quoting the 107 figure for Dunkirk. I just thought some clarification was needed.

The 2nd part of my earlier email was to point out that your comments have validity and that they should not be dismissed just because you confused the figs.

I just quickly looked over the Florida Derby and would like to share my thoughts.

1) I can't get away from the fact that horses that have run big beyer numbers in the 3Yr Preps at Gulfstream this year in their next start are no where to be found in their next start. With that said Quality Road 113 beyer in his last start on a speed favoring track looks really good on paper. I believe this horse is a good horse but I'm not a believer that he is as good as he appears.

He is a miler in my mind. 90 beyer two starts ago and then he jumps up 23 points to 113. I don't like to see huge jumps like that.

Everybody was in ah when Thisoneisforphil ran 117 in the sprint and then in the FOY he was nowhere to be found. Granted I believed that Thisoneisforphil is a sprinter.

Bottom line when it comes to Quality Road he's a good horse but he is not as great as people are making him out to be.

2) Dunkirk is visually impressive but his times tell you another story.  Breaks his maiden 78 Allw win 98. Yes there is a 20 point jump but I believe this horse will get better with every start.

I've always liked how Pletcher brings along his horses. I like his works and I really believe this horse is going to run a big race. I personally don't think he needs the rabbit in the race but it will only help not hurt him. There looked to be some cheap speed in the race already. I think he probably wins the race  and if he doesn't no worse than second.

3) Theregoesjojo- Is the VALUE of the race. He will be the third choice behind Dunkirk and QR. This horse is improving steadily with  every start just like Fresian Fire. I want a horse that is getting better and better with each start. I don't want huge jumps in their beyer numbers like with what you have in QR.

TGJJ work on the 14th tells me he is feeling good and he shouldn't be overlooked. Yes QR beat him by 4 lengths in the FOY  but like I said before the track was favoring speed and he was 7 lengths back but he was able to cut the deficit to 4 lengths and Desormeaux didn't give him the best of trips.

I guarantee that he finishes in front of QR and I believe the exacta box will be Dunkirk and TGJJ. I look forward to hearing from  all you QR fans trying  to explain why QR didn't hit the board on Saturday

Your facts were still very good Big Red thanks again. And.... Dunkirk is the morning line favorite ??? LOL... give me a break !!!  He beats a bunch of average allowance horses in an average time and he is the morning favorite...lol... this horse is expensive that is all.  Quality Road will show where the REAL Quality is !!!  Dunkirk...lol.. get real.

I believe Dunkirk is a legit contender. I actually think his experience going 2 turns and his work tab move him forward. With that said , I think Toby The Coal Man is a legit contender also. I'm looking a race with more questions and potential than anything. Toby sure seemed to get it together all of a sudden. He has plenty of experience going two turns. Nick Zito thinks he fits also. We have only one graded stkes winner in here and he flipped postions with another. Neither has gone 2 turns. I think Q Road and Jojo are very talented but are also vulnerable.

TO GUNBOW: Thanks for the clarification. You're absolutely right. It's easy to misunderstand something written. I apologize for misjudging your post to me. :)

TO DRAYNAY: Thanks. :)

August, QR missed the work before this past weekend. He has had 2 and was supposed to have 3 as I recall.  It won't be an excuse unless he loses, will it? He ran a high figure in the FOY - may have been taxing. Could bounce.

I do not blame the trainer for any of this.  No need to defend Jerkens to me..(except when I see one of his maidens wildly blowing both turns as I recently did I do wonder;) But that has nothing to do with QR and he is obviously a fine trainer.

What's all this rah-rah regarding QR? He won a 1-turn mile elongated sprint(basically),and Now he's the $h!#?..come on! Of course he's talented,but let's see how effective he is going a route of ground.Luckily he's racing @ speed favoring Gulfstream where his "type" is most dominant. And any beyers,split times,thoro-graphs or whatever coming out of Gulfstream,I personally take with a grain of salt. My opinion is: QR and JoJo will not be as impressive looking in the Fla.Derby.I Definately think JoJo's kick will not be effective going 1 1/8 miles.

Now,I'm not on Dunkirk's bandwagon,but it takes a very talented horse to do what he's done in his first 2 starts.Plus we know he can run all day.Going from his 1st start at 7f to another win at 1 1/8miles is not easy.That's a sign of class people,no matter how you try and spin-it. Either he needs more time to develop further or he just might be THIS good.But you can't say he doesn't have that IT factor..Haters!    Peace Out.

On the Rabbit theory

In my opinion , if you are pulling for Q Road , I would want the rabbit.I think it would be easier for him to get the 2 turns from a stalking postion rather on the lead for a mile and an eighth. I also forgot to mention I think the weight Q and Jo are picking up from the last race will play against them down the stretch.

What's the story with Danger To Society Jason? 1 1/8 off works? I didn't catch any of his works, know anything about them?

Danger to Society will follow in his sire's footsteps, I do like Quality Road , but not here, thinking he runs second or third, just not necessary for a top effort yet. Dunkirk is exposed as lacking and we'll see a surprise in the top three, Stately Character.

Dunkirk better learn to read the form.  POTN just spit a bullet running 5f in 59 flat finishing the six furlong work at 12 seconds for the final furlong.  Tired?  Take the Points reaction was to board a plane.  That genius Hollendorfer put in another mile work on Chocolate Candy.  

For Big Red: Thanks for the reply. It's all good.

Slew em All: I agree about distance not being a concern for Dunkirk. I think he will run all day. For me, the big question is whether he is fast enough, and has enough early speed to stay with a quick horse like Quality Road at just 9 furlongs on a speed favoring track. If Dunkirk is running fast in the stretch of the Florida Derby, even if he does not win he could be the "Now" horse for Churchill. Unfortuantely, he could be kept out of the Kentucky Derby a due to a lack of graded earnings.

I do think Dunkirk has alot of potential. He has a smooth, very long stride and really does seem to bound over the surface. However, I do not see the Big Brown comparison that some have made given that Big brown had alot more early speed and had run much faster in the 2 races prior to his Florida Derby. As some have said, I see more of Big Brown in Quality Road. For the Florida Derby, I think Dunkirk is one race behind the development curve of Quality Road and Jojo, and that the 9 furlongs and track surface favor those two horses. Additionally, even with a rabbit, Dunkirk will be at a pace disadvantage, and may run out of ground before catching Quality Road and even Jojo. However, as the distances stretch out and they leave Gulfstream, I think things may start swinging to Dunkirk's advantage. The Kentucky Derby still might be too soon for Dunkirk, but I think he would be tough to beat in the Belmont or Travers later in the year.

I went back and watched Dunkirk's maiden and alowance races. I can see why his maiden win received such a low Beyer (as well as other speed figs). After a half in 45 and 1, the front runners went the next quarter in 26 and 4 for a 6 furlong split of 1:12. That 26 and 4 internal split is ridiculously slow; no wonder Dunkirk was able to go by the frontrunners so quickly, they were virtually walking by then.

As for his allowance win, the time and figs came back much better, and I really do love this colt's stride. He appears to cover ground so effortlessly. Yet, like many others, I wasnt blown away be the performance and do not think he beat a strong field. He still seems slightly green, running in spurts before being able to level off. Additionally, he hasnt shown that instant acceleration, that pure turn of brilliance, or nimble athleticism. However,that could be merely a matter of perception, given that his strides or so long. His steady, bounding strides suggest he'll be at his best beyond 9 furlongs.

If you knew what happened to Quality Road during the race, and to still be able to run the type of race that he did, and to win the way he did. He was drawing away from Theregoesjojo in the stretch. Make no mistake. McPeek recognizes the type of horse that his horse is running against. A lot is at stake but, jojo probably doesn't get to go to the Derby.  Well, we might be looking at greatness here. Richard Migliore, who was getting on Jimmy's horses last summer, and was initially scheduled to ride Quality Road in his first race but, because of a conflict/commitment to ride Desert Code (the winner of the Breeders Cup Turf sprint) he had to be replaced. Richard alluded to, during an interview, the characterisics that can make for a special racehorse. He said, "Quality Road is the complete package........and I have no doubt that the horse will be able to run as far as he needs to run." And, somebody else analyzed the Fountain of Youth. He said, "The Fountain of Youth was the only one-mile race all week with a sub-46 opening half; in only one other race was the opening half under 47 seconds. In the Davona Dale, Frolic's Dream, one of the quickest fillies around, led with a split of 47.39. As for the Fountain of Youth's three-quarter split, 1:09.40, that stands out like a redwood in a pine forest. The average three-quarter split for the week was 1:12.84 ...... and in only four races was the opening six-furlong split under 1:13, the second- fastest mile of the week, 1:37.67, which of course, is about 13 lengths slower than Quality Road's effort. And what does this all mean? Well, for one thing, it means the Fountain of Youth was superlative. For another, is means Quality Road, even though he has yet to race around two turns, probably should be rated higher than No. 4. And, for yet another, it means he could become a superstar."

P.S.- The fountain of Youth was run signicantly faster than the mile Grade II stakes race for older horses run the following week-end, and won by Smooth Air.

Say hello to the next superstar: Quality Road.

Watch for the stud fee on Elusive Quality to begin to zoom up. Thus far with a limited number of crops, and from an unimpressive list of broodmares to date, he has sired an unusually large percentage of graded stakes winners, surely a future Chef-De-Race consideration in the making, is what we are witnessing.

what is this a freak contest? Dunkirk is no Big Brown that much we all know so could we all just wait till after the Florida derby then we can all say how good he is or how over-rated he was! bottom line is he exudes class and has a good vibe around him! I know I'm routing for him Saturday but I'm practical beating that field, Quality road in particular could mean he's special. till then, my lips are sealed.

August, it would be nice to have a superstar.

On his sire, Elusive Quality, he did not get many unimpressive mares in 05 at 100k stud fee, the year after Smarty won the Derby....

Great post August Song.... I could not agree more.  Steve Haskin wrote that unless a rabbit is thrown in to alter the race Quality Road will just run around slowly and win??? Did I read that right or am I missing something?  I guess we should ALWAYS throw in horses that can't win to mess up the outcome.  Talk about trying to steal a race..... unreal !!!

Draynay: Haskin also pointed out that TP has done this before with zero results. Running a rabbit to ensure a honest pace is a smart move IF it works. Remember it's a business and these guys are pretty smart business men/women.

Draynay, that is called strategy. If Quality Road can't avoid a speed duel does he deserve to win?

August,

Interesting facts you posted there, however, I still don't like a horse that got passed at 7 furlongs on dirt even though it was his first race back. He was ultra impressive in the FOY, true, but now he has to go 1 and 1/8 and then 1 and 1/4. Unless the jock was told to not push him AT ALL in that comeback race it leaves a bad taste in my mouth for him to get 1 and 1/4