Quality Rd will get first jump and outrun them. Jo Jo will make his run and come up 2 lengths short.

Dunkirk will be running hard at JO JO and get 3rd. Derby win is not a must for him. He will get his share of graded 1's later and will still be worth a lot of money in the breeding shed.

is this the florida derby or another allowance condition ? SAD ! where's the beef ? r-media must over hype or bite the hand that feeds them . thanks for the memories ... mr.don .

Quality Road to win Theregoesjojo close behind $100.00 dollar exacta straight.

Pletchers silly attempt with the rabbit fails again.  If your horse isn't good enough to win by himself odds are he isn't good enough.

No, Pletchers attempt with the rabbit does work. only that Theregoesjojo benefits from it and wins. Dunkirk finish out of the money

My eyes will be fixed on the monitor for this one. I really like Quality Road, he may be something special and he'll make rabbit stew out of Europe.

Theregoesjojo is the one most capable of an upset in my book. His last race was pretty solid. 5/1 is pretty genourous for this type.

Dunkirk has to be cranked up based on no graded earnings so we shall see just how good he can be. Wouldn't it be great if the one that was pounded down to favoritism in the last futures can't make it to the Derby because of earnings?

According to Gerald Procino, Stately Character bled 2 starts ago and was eased.  Closed very fast 3 weeks ago once he changed leads at the 1/16 pole. A good effort for a closer in a race with 24+ and 48 pace.

He should have a legitimate pace to close into here, he has been this distance and is coming off of sharp work.  Could be a big surprise IF Rene Douglas can get his lead changed early in the stretch.  

Come on Draynay......Damascus was voted #16? on the all time list and he needed a rabbit to beat Dr. Fager.

The "isn't good enough" argument doesn't work.  You just want to make sure QR doesn't have it all to himself on the lead and go out in :49 or :50.

QR has never been two turns, and has raced ONE more time than Dunkirk.  Never been a fan of dead closers in GI company personally, so I can't back JoJo either.

I have to go with the horse who is proven at the distance and has the two turn experience.  As far as the 1:50 time for Dunkirk, he was in the parking lot on the first turn and raced wide. If he had run a 1:49 no one would question the time.

I agree that Dunkirk's trip wasn't terrible, but it was only his second start and had to overcome it.  And he did.  He had to be 8 wide on the first turn and never got better than 4 wide the entire trip.

It wasn't the worst trip of all time, but IMO being wide on the first turn is worse than coming around horses on the far turn.

Jojo just seems overrated to me.  Every year people get enamored with the closer with the turn of foot who "just needs more ground" and it rarely ends up that way.

Jason, you must be "tired", cuz I didn't see that word in JimmyB's blog! How about,"beneficial", maybe "educational" or "useful"..are they easier on the eyes! JoJo's effort after all was one turn as was "Quality...so you can choose sides, but it's not like you are giving us the "burning bush" at 10/1....5/1 was nice in the FOY, and I believe the colt got sneaky money late...I say if you got two great colts, put 'em together[sorta like the black and white cookie]...exacta box Dunkirk w/Quality Rd...next puzzle!

To: JAMES B

You will see Quality R hitting the homerun come Saturday!

Not ready to give up on danger to society if he runs. He may scratch and go to the Wood. If he runs I wilL box him with JOJO and QR and would not be surprised to see him win it all.

If he goes to the Wood, what a race that is shaping up to be. I have said it before, the Derby winner this year will come from the WOOD.

Make room for Dunkirk in the #1 slot in your Derby top tens... You guys are the same people who couldn't see the excellence of Big Brown.

JASON: Quality Road is going to turn this race into an anti-climax.  Let's start talking about the Wood Memorial in which Imperial Council could very likely get run out of the Derby on earnings by I Want Revenge, Hello Broadway and Mr. Fantasy.

Has anyone mentioned that the last time QR raced he chased fractions of :45.2 and 1:09.2 and seemed to explode out of the turn?  I don't think the early speed will maintain those kind of fractions.  QR and JJ Exacta box or key those two over the field for a tri as Dunkirk will not finish on the board.

Jamesb, "enamored with the closer with the turn of foot who just needs more ground" I had a fairly good wager on Quality Road when JoJo blew by him going 7/8, I doubt he needs more ground. Desormeaux let him drop out of sight in the FOY then decided to take him at least four wide into the lane on a track that has done nothing but carry speed the entire meet. I'm not saying he'll beat QR based upon that but I sure wouln't ctagorize him as a late running horse that needs more ground. He's more than a very legitmate candidate for the win on Saturday.

Theregoesjojo! Dunkirk and QR right behind.

jamesb.

Theregoesjojo a dead closer? Since when do dead closers go 6f in 1:10.6 in a mile race like he did his last out or 1:10.4 in his second to last out? I think maybe this horse has shown more than you give him credit for. Jojo was 5th of 10 in the Ftn. Of Youth at 6f in 1:10.6 after starting a step slow. Dead closers don't show that kind of speed. Heck in all the other prep races he would have been right up front going those fractions. He may not beat Quality Road on Saturday but I give him the best shot of the rest to pull off the upset. In any case if he finishes a good second going those same type of fractions or even a little slower he's got to be near the top of the list going in to the Derby.

Enjoyed it,

Still don't see excellence. What I see was a horse who didn't have to beat anybody in his life and he still got whipped in his biggest race. What if's and speculation mean nothing. Big Brown never proved it against the best. He only proved that most of the time but not all of the time he was better than the weak ones he faced.

Quality Road, that's all you need to know. I see a potential star.

I'm in the corner with nay nay and mikie relva on this one.

Dunkirk should have gone the Illinois Derby route to get his earnings. He may end up on the outside looking in after Saturday.

Jojo, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Stately Character=Superfecta.

It won't be an upset if theregoesjojo wins. He's beaten quality road two races back. If anything dunkirk, quality road, and jojo will be sitting a few lengths off the pace. We'll see what a 3.7 million dollar horse is made of when he's got quality road and jojo breathing down his neck.

Aw, horsehockey.

Just box the top 3 in and Tri.

I'm sure it will pay 40 bucks.

And don't get too wound up about times at GP as they ain't always accurate. Dunkirk has the most upside and he has to win to get in the real Derby in ol'Kentucky so he should fire his best shot. As for prices the big 3 will all be around 2-1 with a big drop-off after that.

JASON: I know this blog is about the Florida Derby, so this is off-topic. But have you heard any news about Friesan Fire lately? Is he at Keeneland? Has he been been galloping? It's almost two weeks since the Louisiana Derby, and there have been no reported works for him. In fact, no news at all except that Mr. Jones is thinking about training the colt up to the Derby.

mg.  I meant Theregoesjojo

Draynot...yeah he was 5th of 10 in the FOY....by about 10 or 12 lengths.

His races have all been run the same way.

In that allowance race, QR was pressed by Oblingly the whole way around.  Which is probably what Europe will do.  Not go out and run lights out, but just stay glued to QR for as long as he can.

It worked once....

I know it would be far fetched, but wouldn't it be fabulous if pletcher's "rabbit" ended up beating them all? Although that would be nice, my eyes are on JoJo. I think people are looking for another big brown, and they just happened to find Dunkirk. I wouldn't expect him to do much more than fourth. This is a BIG class jump for a horse who's had it his way twice.

Don't know who I like yet, but I would be stunned to seen any of the top 3 at longer than 3-1.  And if the exacta is 2 of those 3, it won't pay more than $50 (and only that if the longest of the three run 1-2.

I agree with jamesb's post @ 2:17pm

What is odd is the small field and the relative absense of a deep field of horses that are bound for Churchill especially with a G1 $750k purse on the line.

If you look at the nominations list its chockful of horses on the bubble with earnings - so why aren't they in this race instead of hoping for the IL Derby or the Wood?

Thanks Jason. Much appreciate. As for the Florida Derby, Dunkirk has to show me more than what he did in that ALW race before I'd rank him with the top colts from this crop.

Quality Road and JoJo do look like the class of the field.

The_Wiz

Thanks!

I wonder if you guys ever read into a trainers comments or interview. Jerkins doesn't know if his horse can handle a two turn race. What does that tell you? I mean the trainer knows the horse better than we do.

jamesb,

Jojo has never been 10-12 lengths behind at any call in his career!! He was 5.5 lengths off at 6f in the FOY and ran it in 1:10 and change. Maybe if you turn the paper right side up to read the charts you will see that. In his previous race at 7f he was 1/2 length off at 6f and went in 1:10 flat. That's not a deep closer by any means. He has good stalking speed and an ability to finish off a good pace. That is a dangerous animal. Quality Road may have his hands full with this one.

Jason,

Mr. Fantasy out of Wood and will not go to Derby.  Kiaran reports the colt has been off his feed for a couple of days (this colt loves to eat!).  So, they are not going to push him at this time.  I'm glad to hear they will give him some time as he is very young.  He'll go in the Withers next and likely to the Preakness.  We'll get to see a little more mature Mr. Fantasy at Saratoga and I'm all for that!

LOL, Quality Road doe not need to be on the lead, dreamers. He is a highly intelligent, push-button horse, who will make his move when he needs to. Johnnie V. only makes the Florida Derby task easier. Johnnie passed up riding Indian Blessing in Dubai to stay committed. Do you think he knows something that you don't? Like this horse, Quality Road is a freak. He will give Johnnie his first Derby win. What happened in the running of Fountain of Youth, that very few people outside of the obvious - the fast fractions, the ease at which he won, and that Johnnie said that "the further they went the strong Quality Road got." Combine all that, with what you didn't see, and you have the answer. You are looking at greatness here, greatness. It's still early and I recognize that there are doubters out there. You will become convinced soon enough. Anything in the race can run 2nd and 3rd. Something to think about, Ghostzapper and Conquistador Cielo did not need to be on the lead. Having a horse with the kind of speed Quality Road has, and does not need to be on the lead. There is no weakness. He will blow by the frontrunners, when they've exhausted themselves, and the closers will be closing, "spinning their wheels" and making up no ground, or letting the closers make up some ground while Quality Road is eased down in the stretch. Pletcher and McPeek know what they saw, and what they are dealing with. The Freak show starts around 6 p.m. on Saturday.

1st Quality Road, 2nd Jojo',  3rd Dunkirk

Quality Road just has too many advantages Saturday. In Europe and Casey' he's not facing elite speed. Vaelzquez can ride Qualitty Road as if they are not in the race, and off the Fountain of Youth I have no concerns about his ability to rate. The pace scenario, and the speed favoring track favor Quality Road, and I think 9 furlongs is right in his wheelhouse. Also, he is very, very talented. If there is a Big Brown type in this year's crop, it's Quality Road not Dunkirk. Like Big Brown, Quality Road has excellent tactical speed, and has that brilliant turn of foot that makes horses special.

If Meaux ride Jojo' correctly, he should get the jump on Dunkirk to get 2nd. I also feel that Jojo is a real quality horse, and will make his typical strong move around the turn. I don't know about classic distances, but 9 furlongs at Gulfstream should be fine.

I really like Dunkirk, but not in this race. Spotting the top two one start (he's one race behind them), and is disadvantaged by the pace (even w/ the rabbit), the surface, and the distance. He has a great, long stride, but has yet to show the early zip and quick, nimble acceleration that a horse like Big Brown had. I love him for the Classic races, particularly the Belmont and Travers; I expect him to excel with larger fields, quicker paces, different surfaces, and longer distances.

As for the Kentucky Derby chances of Quality Road and Jojo', I really want to watch the Florida Derby before drawing any conclusions. I do have questions about both horses' ability to get a classic distance, so I am very interested in how both finish.

Jason...its not true !!! What I heard is Mr. Fantasy and Vineyard Haven went out last week and got totally wasted.  If you look closely I think they got the same tattoo.

Mr.Fallacy err..Fantasy is not eating because I Want Revenge Pimp-Slapped the living crap out of him in the Gotham,basically took his manhood away.He sensed that they were gonna' race him against IWR again,so he decided to starve himself to death rather than getting his head handed to him by the "Cali Reaper"..horses aren't stupid,they never forget the bad times. :)  lol

You're right Jason,..let go of JoJo! Set him free my man. The distance of the Fla Derby will expose both he & QR as being fraudulent Derby contenders,just watch. Their lucky my Derby pick-up-the-pieces pick Beethoven got hurt,the race would've set up nicely for him.

August Song:

Easy now,let's not get too carried away.It's obvious Johnny V. is looking for his 1st Ky Derby victory and QR is his only hope/ride this year.Every jockey dreams of wearing the Roses come the 1st Saturday in May.Indian Blessing will be there for him when she gets back.And I hope you're not comparing QR to Ghostzapper,that will be blasphemy.."Greatness"?..please! Let him accomplish something before we bestow that upon him. Decaff my friend,decaff.

Yo august song,

don't ever compare quality road to ghostzapper. Ghostzapper beat horses from all distances from anywhere from the lead in the breeders cup classic to 15 lengths back in the vosburg. If quality road can do that. Then you can make comparisons. But we'll see saturday if he's as good as his half bro smarty jones. Pedrigree wise we don't know yet how far he wants to go. He's out of elusive quality(sprinter/miler).

1- Danger to Society

2- Quality Road

3- Stately Character

Go to the window.

To funny Draynay,what kind of tatto?

The way I look at is this... its just 23 seconds until this race turns into a mile race.  Quality Road will not get burnt up in those 23 seconds.

Danger to Society; I think he's more likely to scratch than anything else and head elsewhere (like the Wood).  QR and Jojo both seem like the real deal to me.  both should carry one and 1/8 just fine.  Dunkirk seems over-hyped, but I guess it should be expected with the connections, the two starts, the promising performances.  Something tells me though that super jocks usually ride Pletcher horses parked four wide or so.  I think Jason's point is quite valid from the FOY and KD going wider then he needed.  Expect KD to save ground this time and release Jojo at the right time with the addition of the 1/8.  JoJo/QR, QR/JOJo and play them over all for the tri.  

23 seconds? Smarty jones won the derby, but his pedigree(elusive quality) spoke loud and clear in the belmont. He got tired. Birdstone caught him. Smarty jones never came out of that race the same. Like I said, we'll see how far quality road wants to go. He may be good enough to win this race and that's it.

over the past few years Todd Pletcher

has had his 3 yr olds firing their best numbers in their 3rd start.i think Dunkirk will win with about a 110 beyer.Ken McPeek said before the fountain of youth that JoJo wasn't cranked up for that race,should move foreward.My gut feeling is that Quality Road will regress a little coming off big effort in last.I'll use Dunkirk + JoJo in the pick 3's

I have a feeling that the race will fall apart with Europe and Casey fighting it out front. I am going theregoesjojo w/dunkirk 2nd and hitting the all button for 3rd.

Slew.em all and beezy, you watch things but, you don't really see. Quality Road is a freak. He has had 3 races, with 2 with 100+ Beyers. He was sick when he ran in the 7 furlong race. It was documented. I hope you're not thinking something improper, like what if Quality Road wasn't sick, and he started off running the first 3 races of his life with 100+ Beyers. That would be unheard of, huh? That would be crazy. And, as for me comparing him with the running styles of the great horses Conquistador Cielo and Ghostzapper, and you thinking that, I thought that Quality Road might be as good as them. Nah, I'm not saying that. For me to do that, that would be sacrireligious. I'm just  saying Quality Road has the same dangerous running style as them. I would never put him in the same category as those two horses. What I'm saying is, Quality Road might be better. I don't want you to get the wrong idea. The last I checked, neither Conquistador Cielo nor Ghostzapper, ever won the Kentucky Derby. Conquistador Cielo at least won one of the jewels of the Triple Crown, the Belmont. Ghostzapper was more of a late developing horse. Phew, I certainly glad we cleared up any mis-impressions that you may have had about Quality Road. It is always a good idea to observe, and to recognize what you have seen. Slew.em all and beezy, I have a suspicion that you will recognize and "see" later on, what you didn't recognize and "see" the first time that you saw it.

I watched the Fountain of Youth again for about the 10th time and was reminded of a few key points.

First, Quality Road can rate. He proved it in the FOY. He broke 2nd from the outside (9 spot) between two very quick horses, This Ones For Phil and Taqarub. Those two horses sprinted by him in the very early going. Quality Road could have turned bullish, and pulled Johnny V out of the saddle, but he didn't. Quality Road remained perfectly calm, allowed This Ones For Phil to cross over and lead, and then settled into those efficient, long strides. After being no better than 5th very early, Quality Road moved up to be a clear second, and showed no signs of being rank or difficult to manage while laying 1-2 lengths off of frontrunning Phil'. Why won't Quality Road be able to do the same thing with Europe and Casey'? I know outside posts have not fared well at Gulfstream in two turn races, and wonder what the winning percentage is for post 9, where Quality Road won the FOY from. Anyone know post position stats for one-turn races on Gulfstream? Was winning from post 9 rare?

Second, Jojo' did not make up any ground on Quality Road in the stretch. Where Jojo' cut into Quality Road and Phil's lead was around the turn. However, once the field straightened out, Jojo got no closer to Quality Road. The pace for the FOY was real quick, Quality Road didnt break that well and was bunched with alot of other speedy types early behind Phil', yet maintained a 4+ length advantage the entire stretch. Jojo certainly has a shot to turn the tables, but I don't think it that likely. In addition, I have as many concerns about Jojo getting a distance as I do Quality Road. We'll see. It looks like a very good race with 3 very serious Derby contenders.

Quality Road shows his FOY was no fluke and Stately Character comes on to complete the exacta followed by Theregoesjojo to save the show.

JASON:  There is lots of room on the Quality Road bandwagon.  You would be very welcome to join. I see that in the wake of Mr Fantasy coming off the Derby trail you've totally abandoned Old Fashioned even though you agreed with those who think that Win Willy was a fluke.  Have you changed your opinion on Win Willy?  If not, it would be logical to keep faith with OF, don't you think?

Yes I know that you are going to say I'm trying to pin you down on a Derby selection prematurely but I noticed that you are drifting towards "Jojo".  He's a good horse but still a fantasy.  I guess that after the Florida Derby a lot of folks are gonna wake up to QR.

SLEW.em.All:  Your "decaff" prescription to AUGUST SONG was quite amusing.  After Saturday I believe that AUGUST SONG wont need a stimulant because it will become a case of intoxication.  That will be the effect of Quality Road's display.  You too will be welcome to join the bandwagon on Saturday afternoon.  Also keep a watch for Jose Adan in the UAE Derby.  

In the Santa Anita Derby I like Chocholate Candy to give "The Mousse" a scare close home.  Pioneer Of The Nile will be charging hard as well and he's been in top form on the synthetic, so he could win it.  I suspect that his connections are going for all they can get in California as a hedge against his probable dislike for the dirt at Churchill Downs.  Baffert is a genius racehorse trainer so I'll lift my hat to him again if POTN wins both the SA Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

I guess I'm kind of bored at this stage with the Florida derby discussion so let me try to prime the Wood Memorial debate a little.  Isn't Imperial Council in a similar predicament, if not worse, to Dunkirk?  With Mr Fantasy withdrawn from the Wood his chances have improved somewhat but I Want Revenge and Hello Broadway (this one already has a victory over him and more foundation) are going to be very formidable obstacles to overcome.

$20 trifecta, key Quality Road with Herecomesjojo and Dunkirk; $10 straight trifecta Dunkirk-Quality Road-Herecomesjojo. For $50, sit back and relax!

beezy,

    Smarty got tired because Elliot made a boneheaded move by letting him go with five furlongs left to go after being pressured. Had Elliot not lost his cool, and held under pressure than Smarty probably would've had enough left to fend off Birdstone. You don't let a horse go with five furlongs to go in a 12 furlong race, you just don't. The only horse to be able to do something like that was Secretariat, and he was as they called him a machine. He was one of the greatest of all time. Was Smarty great, IMO yes, Secretariat great, not even close. No horse can duplicate what that horse did in the Belmont, and by letting Smarty try to do something like that  Elliot lost Smarty the race.

Freisan Fire will probably end up going in the Blue Grass, but he, like Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero before him is in an enviable spot. He doesn't need or have to win it and can use it as a true 'prep' and be ready for the Big Dance on May 2nd.....if he gets beat don't forget him in the Derby! I think it's FF and I Want Revenge barring some freak out in Florida or SA Derbies!

Jason, sorry about the $100 on Mr. F. No truth at all that he is not eating according to the connections. He is fine and was planning to breeze this weekend. The trainer thinks they have a special horse who unfortunetly was a May 24 foal and thinks if the owners push him they may burn him out. There are a lot of stakes races for 3 yr. olds just in NY and pointing to the Withers 3 weeks after the Wood gives him another month to mature. These guys are thinking long term here and not rushing to the Derby. Hard to say that does not make sense - right??

no biggie B'z but Quality Rd. and Smarty had the same sires, but that dousn't make them 1/2's...barns are lucky in today's breeding environment to get a horse to run 9f., let alone 12...very limited amount of races...as a 3 yo. running in the Belmont will probably be their 1st and last effort at that distance! I read about JR staying away from Dubai this year...how about Gomez, who could be the best rider in the Country giving up his oppportunities to ride an allowance horse.

What ? Mr. Fantasy is not going to the Derby?  You mean his trainer is not doing EVERYTHING he could possibly do to get him there? He is not even going to throw a horse into the race to bother I Want Revenge? Why doesn't he ... huh he wants to do what's best for the horse you say?

And that means not rushing him to the Derby...hmmm... wow... interesting does anyone have Pletchers phone number?

wanda,

I saw those tattoos on You Tube. They were both of this years KY Derby Logo surrounded by a blanket of roses. They had to be drunk to think either one of them had a shot to win the big one.

i know that in the past two of the kentucky deby winners have come out of the florida derby in the past years but i have a feeling that this year will be different but i think that the horse that everybody is writting off that is not that good id dunkirk and i realize he is not as fast a big brown i should know i bet on big brown alot last year and if i wasnt betting on him i was watching him and quality road is a nice horse but i feel that it is anyone's guess on who will win the kentucky derby you might as well toss a coin in the are and see where it lands. as far as the florida derby i would do quality road and dunkirk in the exacta box is anybody aware that gomez is the top rider im not saying that makes a differance im saing that should speak for its self i really truly feel that one of these horses will be at the top of my derby list for may 2nd if everything goes well as we know well as we know from last week anything can happen i knew that this race would be a difficult one to call but i think i would go with dunkirk over quality road even though he is untested and underproven but here is always a horse that will suprise you this time a year case in poin big brown last year you are all so quisk to pass judgement to say he isnt like big brown but no one knew who he was this time last year

Theregoesjojo to win by 5, followed by Dunkirk and 5 more back is Quality Road who struggles home.

Guninpocket... if that is what you believe then I can only hope you bet a lot of money.  I guess a lot of people like you like the angle ... allowance horse beats G2 winner... stick with that angle and let me know how it works out for you.

  If this is the best they have for entries in the Fla Derby, in this economy, the Fla. Derby will see worse entries next year. This stamps the weakest Fla. Derby in years, and thusly a weak field for the Derby again.

  "Quality Road" and "Dunkirk" to battle down the stretch, as "Theregoesjojo" fades, "Dunkirk" pulling ahead at the end. "Stately Character" and "Toby the Coal Man" duel for the show!

You gotta like a horse like QR in this or any other race. He can use his speed to lead if pace is too slow, or rate if horses want to go out gunning the first part of a race. Speed is tuff, quality speed kills. Having said that, I do anticipate somewhat of a "bounce" for QR, so I am going with JoJo as Dunkirk will have to prove himself one time before I jump on his wagon. I think QR and Dunkirk will battle for fav, at 8:5 or so with JoJo at 3:1. I cannot imagine the exacta paying anywhere near $50 as someone suggested, more like $20....less if its the top 2. Top 3 will be bet to death in ALL exotics. Not the best wagering race I don't think. I have won nicely on FF the last 3 and probably will go with him one more time come 1st Saturday in May. Have a good one all. Go Baby Go!

Oh my Gosh !!! How did she do it ???

She was way wide on the first turn... she was in the parking lot. Justwhistledixie was 6 wide into the first turn and still won the race and posted faster fractions and finished nearly a full second faster then Dunkirk !!!  With that brilliant performance I am sure she will go to the top of everyone's top Derby list.  Wow... what a performance how can anyone top that?  Did you see her run a 1:35.89 mile ? Unreal... lookout Quality Road.....

beezy, you need to do some more reasearch. "when a stallion achieves success from a start at a modest stud fee, the 'knock-on-effect' comes with a delayed reaction. It's easy to gain the false impression that a sire isn't moving forward despite an improved book of mares because of the time it takes for these later progeny to reach the track......... Elusive Quality's 2000 crop yielded 11 stakes winners from 77 foals, including Chimichurri and Omega Code." His 2005 was different though. His stud fee had increased and he got some better broodmare prospects. Raven's Pass, a Group I winner in Europe, and True Quality, who beat Fabulous Strike in the General George. "While clearly outstanding at a mile, Quality Road's credentials as a potential Derby horse require scrutiny. Elusive Quality himself was a sprinter/miler with exceptional raw talent. He did win twice at 8 1/2 furlongs at 3, but his best efforts were at shorter distances..........  Elusive Quality's sire, Gone West, was another outstanding miler, and has proved capable of siring top-class winners at anywhere from sprint distances to 1 1/2 miles depending on the influence of his mates....... Elusive Quality has been predominantly an influence for speed up to a mile but, somewhat paradoxically, his two most talented runners -- Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass -- recorded their greatest triumphs at 10 furlongs. One would be inclined to argue that Quality Road's pedigree has more stamina in the distaff side than Smarty Jones or Raven's Pass." Kobla, Quality Road's dam, is a full sister to Ajina, who won the Coaching Club American Oaks at 1 1/4 miles. "Elusive Quality has crossed very well with Nijinsky II line mares - the cross is rated A++ by True Nicks."

You are looking at a monster here, aqnd not just his physical size either. The horse could bounce (regress) from his previous race, as some here have speculated but, still win. That is how talented I believe he is.

Rest in Peace Alysheba.  May you meet Bet Twice and Ferdinand again.

TO DRAYNAY: Don't know if you'll see this before the FL Derby, but LMAO at your 3/27/09 10:46pm post about Justwhistledixie. :)

dunkirk can´t win! he´s only a little colt, he has nothing to do in this prep race.

Who is going to ride Pioneerof the Nile after Gomez sticks with Dunkirk?

They put a mike in front of Todd Pletcher's face and what comes out of his mouth?  A big fat excuse.  Dunkirk got beat by a better horse plain and simple.  Quality Road looked Dunkirk in the eye and drew off.  Dunkirk improved off his last and still got beat by 2.  He is not Derby ready and Pletcher needs to load him up for the Preakness.  Everyone said Quality would bounce.... well he just bounced to a track record.  Enough said.....  

PS can we all stop talking about that plodder Dunkirk now ???

Alright,obviously Talladega was extra Juiced-up today judging by the track records  that were set,the way speed held even more-so than usual and the track's superintendent's own admission to such.So now we're gonna' hear how QR's splits,mile and final time were "outstanding,blah,blah,blah"..Stop It!.

QR is a talented horse,obviously,but I was more impressed with Dunkirk's race.His 5-wide move around the turn was Big and in any other track that would've won the race,tough luck.Yes perfect tripper QR won,but not by much in defeating the so called "slow,unimpressive allowance winner". So now,does that make QR over-hyped in his wins vs. "slow pokes",or is Dunkirk a legitimate horse?..I think the QR backers/Dunkirk non-believers will chose the latter by default I'm sure...

Quality Road will finish 10+ lenghts behind the Ky Derby winner!His perfect scenario/trip days are over with.

An excellent Florida Derby. It unfolded as most expected, and the only real big surprise was that Jojo was so close to the pace, and faded so early. More about Jojo later.

Quality Road proved, once again, that he has no trouble rating, and he displayed alot of style turning back Dunkirk in the stretch. However, Quality Road held almost all the advantages this day. The track was ultra-fast, speed was holding once again, he received a perfect trip behind a hopelessly outclassed sprinter, and was able to save ground the entire trip after breaking from the 2 hole. It will not be that easy at Churchill.

While Quality Raod did have many advnatages, he ran another monster race like I expected. This is a huge, seriously talented 3 year old. I thought Johhny V would try to sprint ahead of Dunkirk on the turn, and was somewhat concerned when Dunkirk loomed to his outside. Quality Road, though, had plenty left, and out-kicked Dunkirk in the stretch.

Clearly the 9 furlongs was not a problem for Quality Road, and the final time was a track record, although the Gulfstream strip was blazing today; maidens ran 6 furlongs in 109 and 1, and a mile in 136, 3 year old allowance horses ran a 135 and 4 mile, and Big Drama and This Ones For Phil set a 7 furlong track record with a 120 and 4 clocking. Still, Quality Road and Dunkirk were well clear of Jojo in 3rd, and I expect the Beyer to be comfortably over 100 (likely 107-113).

Quality Road is definitely one of the most gifted runners of this crop. He has already demonstrated that he is a world class miler and 9 furlong horse. I think 10 furlongs is within his grasp, but I'm not sure that it's his optimal distance. The Kentucky Derby will be radically different from the Florida Derby. Quality Road will have to run another eighth of a mile against much better speed horses running even faster splits, and will have to race over a Churchill surface that is usually much less kind on speed horses than Gulfstream.

Yet, Quality Road should be a major factor in the Derby. I loved how he rated today, and think Johnny V will be able to take him 5 or 6 lengths off the pace in Kentucky if needed. Those last 100 yards of the Churchill stretch may yet be his unduing, but, as of now, he goes to the top of my Derby rankings.

Dunkirk ran HUGE today in the Florida Derby. As I said before the race, Dunkirk was going to be at a serious disadvantage vis-a-vis Quality Road in the Florida Derby; there was no stakes caliber speed to really test Quality Road early, the pace was not going to be the free-for-all that typically occurs in Kentucky, and he would be racing over a strip that has been brutal to horses trying to close.  While the fractions of the Florida Derby appear fast at first glance, with the first quarter in 23 and change, a half in 46 and change, and 6 furlongs in 110 and 3, the track was ridiculously fast; as fast as the track was, those were not excruciating fractions. Yet Dunkirk was able to cut into the lead on the far turn, making up about 5 lengths into a 23 and 4  3rd quarter.

Dunkirk's move wasnt necessarily brilliant or explosive, but his long legs were covering alot of ground. Given all the disadvantages, including this being his first try in stakes, Dunkirk ran admirably, passing Jojo and putting himself within a length of Quality Road entering the stretch. Quality Road was able to pull away in midstretch, but Dunkirk kept coming at him and was making up ground once again at the wire.

Given this was only Dunkirk's 3rd career start, and that he was forced to make a premature rally on a speed favoring course, he ran very well. Hopefully, Dunkirk can get into the Derby because he would be a major factor. Although he did tire slightly in the stretch of the Florida Derby, I think Dunkirk will enjoy 10+ furlongs, especially on a surface other than Gulfstream. There will be alot more speed in the Derby, and horses with Dunkirk's style have fared very well over the years in that race. If he cant get into the Derby, Dunkirk will be a leading contender in the Preakness or Belmont.

Kent gave Jojo a curious race ride in the Florida Derby. Clearly, Kent and McPeak were concerned about Quality Road and the lack of quality speed horses to challenge him, but Jojo's main weapon has been his quick acceleration on the far turn, and Kent took that away. I can understand wanting to be closer to Quality Road than in the Fountain of Youth, but Jojo was on Quality Road's hip the first 6 furlongs. Taken out of his preferred style, Jojo spit the bit early. I question Kent's ride, but even so, Jojo was very disappointing. I had serious concerns about Jojo getting a distance, and now feel that he simply is not a true 10 furlong Derby horse. Alot of people are going to point to the excuses I discussed, but there was more than that going on here. Jojo was right with Quality Road and just couldnt keep up with that one, and Dunkirk ran right past him. I can understand being a little flat in the stretch after being asked to do something new, but I would have expected him to finish alot better than he did. Very difficult to like for the Kentucky Derby.    

Congrats to alot of the Americans, particularly current and former Californians, in Dubai today. Well Armed ran huge, winning the World Cup by a record 14 lengths. Mike Watchmaker declared him done after he folded in the stretch of the San Antonio after setting a slow, uncontested pace. However, the Santa Anita pro-ride is brutal to frontrunners, and Nad Al Sheba was extremely speed favoring today. Glad to see Aaron Gryder finally get that career defining win.

Recognizing how few of Santa Anita's stakes races have been run on the front end, one must give The Pamplemousse some serious respect for what he has done. If he likes dirt as much as the pro-ride, his speed should be an even greater weapon once he leaves Cali.  

Zarvona, Guninpocket, Ace, Enjoyed It, Jamesb, mg, Sunday Silenced.....any more questions???

The Derby winner will come from the Wood - not California and not Florida - Game. set. match.

Just like I said last week...Jimmy Jerkens will win both Derby's...first the Florida..then the Big One. Take it to the bank!

GunBow...Well Armed the little horse that could.  The "feel good story" of the year about a horse that almost died.  I was really upset when they went Breeder's Cup mile rather than Classic even after great performances in the Pacific Classic (at 1 1/4) Good Wood, and San Antonio. Great performances against Curlin, Go Between, Heatseeker (I think) and now Albetmaximus.  Look forward to seeing his return to Santa Anita/Hollywood/Del Mar.  

I thought Pletcher's comment after the race was telling.  Perhaps the next track Vice President will have the surface to the 3.7 million dollar's liking. This year make it 0 for 22 for Derby wins. Great horse, seems to lack foundation, and as we all witnessed today is no Big Brown. In addition to Quality Road he would also face IWR, The Pamplemousse, FF, POTN, OF, and a few other multiple stakes WINNERS (which he is not one of).    

Boy I tell you - this year's derby feild is talented! Pioneerof the Nile, The Pamplemousse, Quaility Road, I Want Revenge - it's almost overwhelming!

Dray,

A speed favoring track and a come from behind horse, who by the way was not crushed needed the experience (Dunkirk).. JoJo?? What can I say? Jo is my middle name, and my nephews call me JOJO..had to bet. Oh, remember this is NOT the first Saturday in May..

SLEW.em.ALL:  You can't be serious about those remarks in your posting at March 28, 2009, 6:52PM.  Come on man, are you really going to jeapordize your handicapping credibility by trash-talking Quality Road after he comprehensively trounced the January foal Dunkirk.  The latter has done enough to silence a lot of his critics but there is no dirt track on which he can expect to match Quality Road at the Derby distance.  How about having a cup of coffee (no decaff for you my friend) before posting a response.  

Track playing fast.  Pletcher has legitimate gripe.

Nice race by QR though

Very good race by Dunkirk to close.  No one else did today.

Theregoesjojo six lengths out of it.  Too close to the pace.  Should have tried to use that explosive turn of foot I've been hearing about.  Jockey had to resort to a bogus objection to try to get some the GSE.  Only has about $123k now.  See ya in the Withers and Preakness.

..........and still they don't believe. People who have eyes but, don't really see. People who have ears, and don't really listen. People that think they know, who don't have a clue.

The Toddster, shame on you, for blaming the Gulfstream racetrack for being speed favoring, something the new Gulfstream racetrack has been all along, and for not realizing where he should have run Dunkirk, and who he should have faced so he would amass enough graded stakes earnings to qualify to run in the Kentucky Derby. Chances are Dunkirk didn't amass enough, and he probably won't be there the first Saturday in May.

slew'em all, you are sounding a bit desperate, almost a little delusional. Are you on any  medication, that you are not taking? That might explain your presence of mind.

beezy, Quality Road probably "bounced" Saturday, setting a new track record in the process, and won. He was very lucky, that all the other horses, and trainers of the other horses wanted him to win the race. Having had a total of 4 races, and having three 100+ Beyers and having been sick in his other race means absolutely nothing. The Swale being run in track record time, and Quality Road having beaten the declared winner by 10 lengths last time out, was purely a coincidence. All the other horses and trainers in those races were feeling in a giving mood, and so were the people responsible for the Beyers. It's one big collective plot by different owners, trainers, horses, and Beyer people to make Quality Road appear to be something, that clearly, he is not.

black mamba, you don't know Jimmy Jerkens very well, do you?

GunBow, you tell a good story. Unfortunately, your interpretations are a little off. Dunkirk made his strong run as expected. Johnnie V. was looking back under his left arm, as Gomez and Dunkirk had surged on the outside, putting his neck in front. Quality Road and Johnnie V. battled back when Johnnie realized what had happened, and when the real running started to take place, Dunkirk was no match. Dunkirk lost ground in the stretch, and was losing ground at the end of the race. Thegoesjojo had no business being in the race, in my opinion, if the connections were looking to earn enough graded stakes money to qualify jojo for the Kentucky Derby. Jojo was ill-prepared for the race. I told you that beforehand. He "missed" his last scheduled workout, having to work on a sloppy racecourse, that McPeek has said publicly, he doesn't like to work his horses. Jojo beat Quality Road, when the latter was sick. That is what the jojo connections had to be hoping for again. Jojo laying close to the pace, or coming from further back. It wouldn't have made too much difference, except for the clipping of heels (and you better hope jojo comes out of the race uninjured). I shared with you beforehand that having a horse with speed, who does not need to be on the lead, is such an advantageous running style. Plain and simple, if you really spent some time thinking about it, there is no weakness. They can be on the lead if they want it. They can sit off the pace, and run to the front anytime they want. They don't need to worry if there is enough speed in race for them to close into, and they don't need to worry about the horses behind them.

I was going to relate something that happened during the running of the Fountain of Youth to Quality Road that was never commented here, and never revealed publicly but, it happened all the same. And GunBow, you can watch the replay 10 more times, and you still won't know or realize how special Quality Road is. If you knew what happened during the running of the race, and the end result, you might have been as certain as I was, that Quality Road is the complete package, the real deal, an absolute freak. Congratulations to all those who believed.

Michael Veitch, a turf writer and pedigree expert for the Saratogian Newspaper (and member of Racing's famous Veitch family) reviews the pedigree of all the top Derby candidates each week. He reviewed the Pamplemousse Saturday and it doesn't look good. While he's strong on the sire side, the breeding on the dam's side is, in his words, the "weakest in the field so far". Add that and the fact he's only run on rubber, I'm tossing him.  

GUNBOW, some views on some points in your post:  

“Quality Road will have to run another eighth of a mile against much better speed horses running even faster splits, and will have to race over a Churchill surface that is usually

 much less kind on speed horses than Gulfstream”

Who are the better horses that QR will meet? Is there a 3YO that can set a pace that QR cannot rate close to? The fastest 6 furlong for the derby is Songandaprayer’s 1:09.25.The average time for six furlongs for the last ten derbies is 1:10.94. If there are going to be faster splits, then Secretariat’s record is history. How many on Steve’s top twelve list have recorded 1:10 plus in their rout races? The Mousse is probably the only one but can he run as fast on dirt? The speed of War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown were not affected by the Churchill surface. Good horses take their races wherever they go.

“Dunkirk ran HUGE today in the Florida Derby. As I said before the race, Dunkirk was going to be at a serious disadvantage vis-a-vis Quality Road in the Florida Derby”

Good horses overcome their disadvantages. If Dunkirk had won there would be no arguments about his disadvantage. He rocketed to every top ten list after his Allowance win. Were his disadvantages taken into consideration with the hype that surrounded him?

“the track was ridiculously fast”

I have read this statement elsewhere and I do not think the posters know their facts. Below are the fractions for the last three FL derbies:

Scat Daddy         23.06, 46.78, 1:10.82, 1:35.92, 1:49.02

Big Brown          22.76, 45.83, 1:10.08, 1:35.18, 1:48.16

Quality Road      23.49, 46.83, 1:10.66, 1:35.28, 1:47.72

QA’s fractions for the first 4 quarter were slower than those recorded in 2008. His fractions for the first two quarters were slower than those recorded in 2007. Big Brown was not challenged so he coasted home. If horse had challenged Big Brown, it is conceivable he would have gone below 1:48. Are you implying that Big Brow won the 2008 FL Derby on track that was ridiculously fast? The splits for the FL Derby for the last three years reflect marginal differences. This track is always fast on derby day. The Olympic track in China was fast but yielded only five records. Three WR were recorded by the amazing Usain Bolt. Exceptional athletes are likely to record world records on fast. It is not inconceivable that Quality Road is a better athlete than Big Brow. We already know he is better than Dunkirk irrespective of the excuses being brandished.

“Given this was only Dunkirk's 3rd career start, and that he was forced to make a premature rally on a speed favoring course”

I am not sure the point above carries any value. Big Brown made his third start in the FL Derby and had no problem winning. Quality Road made his third start in the Fountain Of Youth and had no problems winning. QA had only a one race advantage. What exactly is a premature move? Dunkirk rider took correct decision to move at the time he did. If he had allowed QR to straighten and change leads he would have been beaten five or more lengths. Without that move, he would making the turn for home when QR had already change leads and would be well on his way home.

“Hopefully, Dunkirk can get into the Derby because he would be a major factor”

I am hopeful he can get into his feed pan after his exposure to the monster Quality Road. Sometimes races can have adverse effects on horses, lets hope he was not damage too badly and will be able to recover.

Quality Road’s dam sire Strawberry Road was a HOY in Australia and champion older horse in Germany. His second dam was sired by Alydar, sire of two derby winner. His third dam was sire by Bold Bidder, sire of two derby winners. Do not expect distance to be his problem.

QR appears to be heading into the Derby as an overlay. Though he has many new fans with that stare down he gave Dunkirk, there are multiple betting interests facing him in the Derby. Friesan Fire,possibly something from Bluegrass, Santa Anita winner, Wood winner, Arkansas Derby winner, Dunkirk, and UAE winner. Others will be fresher in the minds of gamblers but not fresher hores. QR after all the later races Derby hype maybe at prices like Thunder Gulch. The overlay will be sweet in lots of various pools.

In watching the replay of the Florida Derby again, you can see that QR is a monster not only in ability but in sheer size. He looks as though he's as tall a horse as, for those of you who remember, Forego. But more robust.

The pedigree is super....speed from the sire and stamina from the dam. First Smarty Jones, then Raven's Pass, now QR. Think Elusive Quality's stud fee might go up?

Why Why Why ?  Why are we STILL talking about Dunkirk.  He was measured and he was beaten.  First time EVER going two turns Quality Road looked him in the eye and said good bye.

Don't bother talking about California horses they just don't matter in the Derby and Pamplemousse has been picking on weak horses and Pioneer of the Nile can't break a 100 Beyer.

Friesan Fire and Old Fashioned ? Are you kidding me ? Do you really want to see these minor league horses face Quality Road?

Quality Road sets a record first time going 2 turns... what is going to do when he runs it again?

The only question left is who wins the Wood and does he look good enough doing it to compete with Quality Road.

Slew em All and Gunbow

    I agree with both of you. Dunkirk in my opinion ran a more impressive race. He made up 7 lengths, went about five wide on the final turn and ran a very game race. QR had an easier time, IMO, he was close to the pace on a speed favoring track, which Gulfstream normally is, had a perfect position, and made his move. Yes i noticed the horse was three wide, but he had no real reason to drift out, there was nobody to his inside and he could've stayed next to the rail. Both horses ran fantastic races, you kinda have to to run a stakes record, but IMO the fact that Dunkirk made that big move, going five wide, and closing like he did was just fantastic. Plus, considering he was only about     1 1/2 lengths or so behind a stakes record is pretty darn good. In fact he probably ran very close to or tied the record himself. Basicly he ran a winning race, but in the end i think the track, the trip, and his inexperience got the better of him.

Dray,

    How does running about 1 1/2 lengths behind a track record qualify a horse as a plodder?

It may be useful to point out that Big Brown didn't meet Quality Road in the Florida Derby or anything like him in that 3 year old crop.  If QR hadn't been there, Dunkirk's time still would have been in the BB ballpark and Dunkirk would be a Sunday morning phenom.

QUALITY ROAD you have my attention RIGHT NOW! I THINK DUNKIRK SUCKS AND HE WILL NOT BE AT THE KD AT AT ALL!

The Florida Derby showed us many things; Kent D. still can throw in a mind-numbing ride, Pletcher can still whine and Jimmy Jerkens has quite a talent on his hands.  Chris McCarron has said numerous times that jockeys more often make mistakes hurting their horse's chances than making brilliant decisions to help their horse's chances.  In my wildest dreams I just cannot see McPeek saying, lay off QR's hip and go six ride around the track.  Hmm, I think all of those breezing works are for "glow slow to moderate early and finish late."  Pletcher just cannot help himself.  Memo to Todd, you were not beating QR yesterday no matter what the track conditions were.  Although Jojo was done at the top of the stretch, you have to think the horse was confused.  "Hey have you read my running lines in the DRF Kent.  I'm suppossed to be fifth looking at four behinds.  Jojo was not winning yesterday anyway.  I had one thing right; Danger in Society scratched; which was no secret.  So, what comes next; Papa Clem displays an IWR type of performance in the ARK-D, Imperial Council takes another step forward, IWR and FF; do not know, but something tells me they are not the ones for the first SAT in May.  (Note to self, remember Kent D. thinks he's superman and Pletcher is a go against 80% of the time.)

QR beats former (3.7 Million Dollar) allowance horse on a freakishly fast track. Not sure what this tells us other than QR can win back to back races.  He like some others, is at least consistent.  No need to make  excuse after excuse.   On to the Wood and Santa Anita Derby where there are some other very consistent runners. Does anyone know where ESPN broad casts from?  By the 3 commentators top 5 Derby choices I guessed east of the Mississippi. But then again when POTN or the Pamp win next week they may put those in the Derby top 5.  It reminds me of a girl who has to change 5 times before the big date.  I just turn the sound off.  

The only "closer" who won on Sat came from ONE length back--They tooled the track and the question is WHY? Why do tracks need to do that for their big race days? The Florida Derby winner was not "plain and simply" the better horse because the track was not "plain and simply" a fair track! Laying a soft second then blowing them away is what I Want Revenge did as well...maybe they'll finish one/two at Churchill but I won't base my conclusions on a track where closers were "DOA" at the starting gate all day!

TO:GUNBOW

I was one of the individuals that liked WellArmed,also QR. Mike Watchmaker is "in love with his own voice",I can't stand him,period!

TO:SLEW em. ALL

I knew you wouldn't "man up" after QR won. Individuals like yourself have such a fragile ego that you find trouble in admitting you blew it.

Pletcher lodged a complaint with the track BEFORE the Fla Derby---I don't view that as sour grapes---Dunkirk was in a position where he had to win the race to qualify for Kentucky---I wonder out loud WHY some tracks seem to need a rocket fast surface for their big days---I thought Dunkirk ran lights out--he was beaten by a real nice colt, there's no doubt about that...BTW was that a "pro-ride" frontrunner out for a public workout in Dubai or what!! Dubai was like Florida, frontrunner city---But the pace WON'T be soft at Churchill this year if The Pamplemousse goes, in that respect there's many questions about Quality Road and Dunkirk that were not answered Sat---on to Churchill....

TO:LDP

You are on target regarding what you stated earlier about Smarty Jones.

Coldfacts, your post was excellent.

Dunkirk most probably, doesn't make it to the Kentucky Derby, unless something drastic changes. For the last few years, the least amount of graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby has been $165,000. Pletcher or the owners did something stupid by running Dunkirk where they did. They will not race him again before the Derby is run. Yep, all of a sudden, they're thinking what is best for their $3.7 million dollar horse. They will wait, and see what happens. I believe he misses the Derby, and only will run in the Belmont but, what do I know? Pimlico racecourse has tighter turns and can be speed favoring, and less to his liking, as a committed closer that he is. And this is just the obvious, superficial stuff. I won't begin to touch on how Dunkirk's psyche had to be affected by yesterday race. He knows exactly what happened. He surged to the lead, and the other horse fought back and pulled away from him. We will see if he can recover, and how long it may take (another reason why they opt to bypass the Preakness).

GunBow I concur---The Pamplemousse is winning on a track that DOESN'T favor speed while Quality Road just won an a very glib surface indeed! Can you say "fake dirt track"? How can bloggers brag about a track record, while at the same time just toss the guy who actually closed and also ran lights out? I was impressed with Quality Road--He needs to show me more but is coming to Kentucky with a head of steam! He won't have his "Florida Pace"...I also think he won't have his "Florida Track"....But my eyes are opened/I cannot deny I was impressed....

Dray I'll tellya why-why-why we're still talkin about Dunkirk---He did what no horse did Sat--he made up ground!....Your guy did what EVERY horse did Sat--He won on the lead....Ha Ha but I like Quality Road...I'm just not gonna annoint him HOY just yet!

August Song, ColdFacts:

I liked Quality Road going into the Florida Derby, picked him to win, and wrote than I have him ranked #1 on my list. What else do you want me to do? No, I'm not going to give him the Kentucky Derby trophy yet. He still has to win it first.

Coldfacts:

By writing that in the Kentucky Derby that Quality Road will be facing "better speed", I didnt mean better than Quality Road. I was comparing the speed horses that will be in the Knetucky Derby field to Casey's on Call. You don't think Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge are better than Casey's On Call? I wasnt comparing these horses to Quality Road; I was comparing them to Casey, and showing how the Kentucky Derby pace is going to be more contentitious than the pace of the Florida Derby. However, I also wrote that I think that Johnny V can take back Quality Road 5-6 lengths in the Derby and be fine. I think Quality Road can rate perfectly.

For all those disparaging Dunkirk, if Dunkirk is that bad, what makes Quality Road's performance so impressive? If Dunkirk has no shot in the Derby or any other major race, then why should the fact that Quality Road beat him be impressive? You make it sound like Quality Road beat nothing in the Florida Derby.

Listen, Dunkirk is a good horse, and he ran a big race. That's what makes Quality Road's win so impressive. He stared down another good horse and came out on top. The fact that he won this grade 1 race, in track record time, and spanked another good horse doing so is what makes the performance so special. By slamming Dunkirk, you are only lessening Quality Road's achievement.

August Song:

I watched the Fountain of Youth for the 10th time, and then posted that I came away even more impressed with Quality Road the more I watched. I wrote that I had no doubts that Quality Road will be able to rate, especially since he broke between This Ones For Phil and Taqurub in the Fountain of Youth and never showed any tendencies of being headstrong. I also wrote that Jojo made up no ground on Quality Road in the FOY stretch and would be suprised if he did so in the Florida Derby. What's your beef with that post?  

I was very impressed by both QR and Dunkirk yesterday.  Felt sorry for TGJJ.  Don't think he was going to beat those top two, but that was a classic Kent D. synapse lapse ride.

QR is a deserving Derby favorite as of today as far as I am concerned. I doubted him a bit and he is the real deal.  I am sticking with POTN as my Derby horse, but love this whole crop so far.

My Derby Top 10:

Pioneerof the Nile

Quality Road

Friesan Fire

The Pamplemousse

I Want Revenge

Dunkirk

Chocolate Candy

Desert Party

Papa Clem

Old Fashioned

Imperial Council

Dunkirk could be the best horse in two month's time - I hope he stays out of the Derby as I think it would serve him well in the longer term.

Codlfacts:

The Gulstream track was fast Saturday, much faster than it had been all meet (most 9 furlongs, even by grade 1 older horses, were run in over 1:50). I also noted on Friday, after Justwhistledixie won the Bonnie Miss in 149, that the track seemed to be faster than it had been most of the meet. When describing the track as "ridiculously" fast, I was comparing it to the rest of the current meet, not previous Florida Derby cards.

Even so, saying the track was "ridiciulously" fast was probably an overstatement. And, you are correct that the track usually is fast on Florida Derby day. However, I never meant to attribute Quality Road's track record entirely to the fast track. That's why I predicted the Beyer to be 107-113(and maybe higher) in my earlier post.

In comparison to the 107-113 Beyer I predicted for Quality Road, Big Brown got a 106 for his Florida Derby and Scat Daddy received a 98 for his win in 07'. So, by predicting Quality Road's Beyer to be so high, I was acknowledging that he ran faster than Scat Daddy and even Big Brown. Basically, the track yesterday was the just as fast as on Florida Derby day in 07' and 08'. The reason Quality Road's time was faster than Scat Daddy and Big Brown is because he ran a better race. I recognize this, which is why I think his Beyer will be so high.

According to Beyer figs, Quality Road is actually faster than Big Brown. Big Brown ran a 106 in just his 3rd start, winning the Florida Derby, and then ran a 109 in the Kentucky Derby. In his 3rd start, Quality Road ran a 113 in the FOY. If his Beyer for the Florida Derby is over 109, which is plausible, then he will be ahead of Big Brown. And while Big Brown never really improved, according to the Beyers, after his 2nd start (he earned a 106 Beyer in his allowance race comeback, 106 for the Florida Derby, 109-Kentucky Derby, 100-Preakness, 106-Haskell, 105-Monmouth Turf Stakes), it is entirely possible Quality Road could continue to progress. We shall see.

Boo Hoo says Todd Pletcher. How unprofessional can a top trainer get? Shame on his excuse for Dunkirk not winning Saturday. Quality Road ran a fantastic race and hats off to him and his connections. If the big D. was as good as everyone said he was then he would have won, no excuses needed. As for my faith in JoJo it is now gone. He's kaput. On to bigger and better things next Saturday so we can weed more of the imposters out of the mix.

RE: Tightening up the track for faster times/track records/on big days.....Should not the public (ie the gamblers) be informed of the track's intentions--a glib surface told us volumes about Bellamy Road, didn't it?!...what I'm trying to say is, don't get carried away with what Quality Road did on Sat...

Dray, ya better pack an extra pair of Depends on Derby Day!! HA! Good luck to ya mate!

 Dunkirk ran a great race as this was his first attempt with stakes company and there is no doubt Quality Road is a

top class colt.Looking forward to his next race.

The bloggers here are getting desperate. Fast track, slow track, it would have not made a bit of difference for Dunkirk. He would have still lost. Coldfacts just showed you how consistent the last 3 runnings of the Florida Derby have been timewise. You want to blame someone? Blame Dunkirk's owners and the all-knowing Toddster for their boneheaded decision to run Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. They knew IN ADVANCE that the FIELD FOR THE Florida Derby WAS NOT GOING TO BE BIG. THEY KNEW IN ADVANCE THAT THERE WAS NOT GOING TO BE MUCH SPEED OUTSIDE OF QUALITY ROAD. THEY WERE EVEN STUPID ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THAT ENTERING THEIR $2.7 MILLION MAIDEN, EUROPE, WOULD POSSIBLY MAKE A DIFFERENT, OUTSIDE OF WASTING ANOTHER HORSE. That's what stupid people, with big egos do, after they make boneheaded decisions. They blame the track. It's your fault, our horse lost. Our horse was best. LOL

"The fault dear Brutus is not in the stars. It is in ourselves."

Message to LDP, you need to learn how races are raced. Being a blogger here, you may think that you know but, it's obvious that you don't. If you get the opportunity sometime to speak with a good jockey, or even a good trainer about racing and riding, it will prove immeasurable. I'm addressing your comment that Quality Road "had no real reason to drift out there was nobody to his inside". First of all, he didn't really drift out. Johnnie V. once he realized Dunkirk and Gomez had surged to his outside, (There is a difference of opinion as to whether Dunkirk passed Quality Road. Johnnie V. said he didn't. Jimmy said he did. I watched the race, and I agree with Jimmy), good jockeys will guide a horse to be able to see the horse outside of him/her. Most horses are naturally competitive, and once they see the other competitor(s), they will respond accordingly if they are at all competitive. Since Dunkirk had made his sudden move, and Johnnie V. didn't actually notice him until he was passed, he did the absolutely, positively appropriate thing with Quality Road. He shook him up and engaed him to see the competition.

And, as for your belief that Quality Road had an easier race, that would be arguable, too. Quality Road was supposed to "bounce". He had just posted a 113 Beyer. That could not be done again. His effort in the Fountain of Youth would take it's toll on him. He wasn't supposed to like the distance. He had never tried 2 turns before. Dunkirk, who was coming off a 2 turn win, who was regally bred, who the connections had spent $3.7 million on would have at his mercy. et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. As someone else wrote, if Dunkirk, who had his chance, and won. People  supporting him would have been crowing all of the above. Unfortunately, for them, Dunkirk lost. And, I would suggest before you attempt to support him again, that you see what the horse is dealing with, and how he is responding. I was on another site, and some knowledgeable posters were clear dismayed by Dunkirk performance, writing that the horse was spent and weaving in and out, having given it's all and staggered home. Let us see how, and if, he recovers. Pushing a young horse too far, too soon, has been many a good horse's undoing. Stupid decisions and big egos will do that.

It's OK for the QR backers to gloat about his win,your horse won,that's fine.Like I said after the FOY,he's talented.But he's not my Derby pick.Neither is Dunkirk,..I just knew he was better than what his detractor's thought of him,and he proved it yesterday.

I know it's difficult for people that live in Pigeon-holes to understand the fact of QR's perfect trip/set-up in his GP races..Trust me,he Won't have that Luxury come May @ Churchill.We'll see who else is going to the Derby in a few weeks,but as of now with "quality" speed horses like OF and The Pamps' waiting in the wings,and not the "cheap sprinters speed" he faced at Gulfstream,It'll be a different scenario by far. No thanks,but I'm still sticking with my top 3 battle hardened horses:I Want Revenge,Friesan Fire & POTN,who have proven that they can weave thru traffic,overcome adversity and still motor down the lane.In my eyes,all QR has shown is that he can sit behind cheap-speed and take over when they fall back.What will happen if things don't go his way or he runs into some kind of new circumstances in the 20 field Derby,which will occur more than likely.Don't forget,he barely beat Dunkirk who was supposedly a "slow,over-hyped plodder" remember? He's had it far too easy in Florida against lesser,we'll see what happens vs. better.

It seems like QR is on the verge of sweeping the Triple Crown when reading some of the posts,like August Song's..which btw: can you "enlighten" us with that "thing that happened in the FOY to QR" but has never been revealed,I'm sure us absent minded curmudgeons are just dying to hear about it,your Highness!...barf!

Ranalgulzion: I'm as serious as a heart attack,and tend to believe my capping' skills are intact :)lol, but after your boy Jose Adan's performance in the UAE Derby yesterday,one must question yours. j/k lol..stay thirsty my friend.

Mike Relva: Man-up for what?I didn't pick a horse in the Fla.Derby,I said the distance will expose QR and JoJo,so I was 1/2 right or wrong however you wanna' look at it.At least I try and bring something to this table,but Minions like you with empty thoughts seem to constantly go to your Rolodex full of 1-line Doosies.  

The Derby is in 5 weeks in KY,they didn't run it yesterday @ GP.  Peace Out People!

August Song,

    Chill, i'm supporting a horse i like big deal. IMO, notice that, i said my opinion, that he ran a better race. Honestly one point i agree with you in is that Dunkirk never passed QR, i think he drew even and thats it. Also, at first, after the race i thought i saw a tired horse too, but then i saw them hosing him off and he was shaking and tossing his head, dancing around some. I thought well maybe he wasn't as tired as originally thought. I run track, and i know darn well if i run my hardest i'm going to be tired after i'm done, but normally after i catch my breath i feel fine and am ready for my next event. That may have been the case with Dunkirk, out of breath and tired after a fantastic effort, but once allowed some time to catch him breath, he was fine. Also yes i do know what i'm talking about with race horse, for one i actually called the Dubai world Cup. Told just about everyone if Well Armed gets the lead and get to make easy fractions he's won. Though he surprised me by winning by so much. Anyhow, my point is QR didn't need to drift out, was it a good move yes, because as you said it allows the horse to see his competitor. Again, though that was not my point, i said that just in case someone said well QR ran 3 wide in the turn so why is dunkirk running 5 wide a big deal. Well Dunkirk was circling horses, he kinka had to run wide, QR had nobody to his inside, so he didn't have to do that. See my point.

TO:SLEW em.ALL

The only thing you bring to the table is showing how little you really know. Better keep your day job! Spin it any way you want,but you didn't pick QR to win.

OK Relva,that was a 2 1/3 line doosie.Keep it up my man,you'll get there.

Maybe I was correct with my initial impressions that Gulfstream was "ridiculously" fast on Saturday.  Evidently, the Beyer team agrees.  Quality Road's Beyer for the Florida Derby is only a 103 (w/ Dunkirk 100).

Beyers shouldn't be everything, but that 103 causes me to pause. Clearly, the Beyer crew doesn't feel that the time of the Florida Derby was particularly special given how fast the track was.

I have to admit, I am a little disappointed w/ the figure; I thought a 107 would be at the low end of possible figs. But, the track was fast. Maidens went 1:09 for 6 furlongs.  

For those who were already giving the Kentucky Derby to Quality Road, I would have to think you are somewhat disappointed by a 103 Beyer?

A further note on Quality Road being assigned a 103 Beyer for his Florida Derby win.  This mean Jojo only received about a 90. Before the figure came out, I suppose it was possible for Jojo fans to think that Quality Road and Dunkirk just freaked, and that Jojo actually ran fairly fast. Had Quality Road been given a 113 for the Florida Derby, that would have been true as Jojo would have received a 100 Beyer. As it turned out, Quality Road's Beyer is only 103.

I think a key variable the Beyer team used to come up with a 103 for Quality Road is the performance of Stately Character. Prior to the Florida Derby, Stately Character had run 8 races, but had never Beyered over 83. On top of that, his Beyers were not showing improvement; his last 4 races were given Beyers of 82-83-21-82. Stately Character looked like a horse that was doubtful to improve in the Florida Derby, so his consistent 81-83 Beyer performance could be used as a reference point in the Florida Derby. This, apparently, is what the Beyer crew did.

If it was assumed that Stately Character ran another 82-86 Beyer in the Florida Derby (maybe giving him a few points for some slight improvement), the Beyers for the horses ahead of him start falling into line. Stately Character finished 2 and a half lengths behind Jojo; 2.5 lengths translates into 4 Beyer points at 9 furlongs, so Jojo got a 90 Beyer.  Jojo finished 6 lengths behind Dunkirk, or 10 Beyer points. So, Dunkirk gets a 100. And Dunkirk was beaten 1.75 lengths by Quality Road, which is 3 Beyer points, so Quality Road gets a 103.

The Beyer organization claims to use final times as a guide for their figures. However, and they don't hide it, almost as important in making the figures is past form. Often, figures are adjusted to "better" fit the previous performances of the field. Thus, if the Beyer fig assigned to a race is much higher than that field normally runs, the Beyer team may adjust the figure downwards.

Did the Beyer team adjust the Florida Derby downwards? Perhaps. Had Quality Road been given a 113 for the Florida Derby, it would have meant Stately Character ran a 96, which doesnt seem likely. However, more unusual things have happened.

TO: SLEWem.ALL

Did you notice last week that Adam REMOVED that stupid post from his blog? Not only that,but he sent an email stating he knew it wasn't mine. lol

GunBow,

I'm not dissapointed in the least at the 103 Beyer given Quality Road. I expected a "bounce" from his last monstrous race. I think it sets him up perfectly for another move forward on KY. Derby day. He's going to be awfully hard to beat.

Barbara    I was on the previous blog and read your message about one of Jimmy's horses, who blew both turns in a 1 1/8 miles race. It's really kind of ironic, the timing of reading your message. You saw the race. So did I. Check out the pedigree, and who his sire is!!! Then, tell me, it's the trainer's or jockey's fault. I predict you will see this talented horse win several stakes races before he's done racing. His name is Convocation. And for blowing that first turn, and being 20 lengths behind the next to last horse, and then making up all that ground and then being 4th, and still having a chance to win, until he blew the 2nd turn. Put him in your Virtual Stable, and watch what happens. LOL