A day later people need to understand Quality Road is a better horse than Dunkirk. Quality Road will now get 5 weeks to rest and train to get ready while everyone else has another race to run.  As good as people thought Dunkirk was Quality Road handled him with ease. Unless you are blind or just stubborn or Imperial Council or I Want Revenge freak in the Wood its going to be hard to believe that ANY horse can beat a well rested Quality Road coming off back to back Stake wins including a record time.  Barbaro did it, Big Brown did it, now it looks like Quality Road will do it. The path is certainly starting to get a little worn.  Does the winner of the Arkansas matter ? No. Does the winner of the Santa Anita matter ? No.  Does the winner of the Wood matter ? Maybe.

Too bad about Jojo as I think he deserved to get in. Desormeaux must be out of touch. I have never forgiven him for his ride on Big Brown last year, pitiful it was. Big Brown would have won the triple crown if they had have let him run

Welcome aboard Jason.  The Florida Derby and The Swale Stakes were awesome to watch.  Aren't you salivating at the prospect of seeing Quality Road and Big Drama in the Derby with I Want Revenge, The Pamplemousse, Friesan Fire, Chocholate Candy, Pioneer Of The Nile and Win Willy?

Never mind Todd Pletcher's sour grapes.  He is grasping at straws by talking about speed bias when he pulled the "rabbit" out of the race instead of "a rabbit out of a hat" in getting Dunkirk to the Kentucky Derby.  Todd may need to a refresher's course with the likes of Baffert, Lukas, Naftzer or a couple tips from Larry Jones about how to get a horse "cherry ripe" (including fitness and earnings) for the Kentucky Derby.  He still has the Blue Grass stakes and a "spare bullet" in Affirmative to get to the big dance at Churchill Downs.  I sincerely wish him all the best.

Ranagulzion: Easy there. Please dont put Big Drama or Win Willy in the Derby equation. The Swale was a sprint, and Win Willy, well, not worth my time.

Quality Road had a sensational race. I think it should put him at the top of everyone's derby lists. As far as Dunkirk, I don't know if he'll be able to get into the derby but I think he should be in there and he clearly has the talent. He just ran into a more superior horse in Quality Road. I think Dunkirk will do really well racing this summer with more experience under his belt.

I was disappointed in Pletcher's comments after the race.  I think he acted like a spoiled child who'd just had his lollipop stolen.  I think Quality Road is a major force in the Derby picture-massive muscles with speed,stamina, and class.  He could very well win the Derby.  

The thing that impressed me most about QR was that around the turn he reminded me of a kid with his finger stuck in his nose. When Dunkirk came to him he pulled the finger out and went to work. He seems very kind, he has good speed and Elusive Quality already has thrown 1 1/4 mile horses (plus the dam side is all quality too). I want to see his coat blossom, and I want to see him attack his workouts at CD. My one concern is how big an individual he is. I remember that after the Derby, Baffert felt like Point Given had stung his feet because CD seems to soup up their track for Derby day and it can be a little hard. However, I'm fuzzy here, does he seem as stout as Point Given was?

Can't wait for the rest of the preps to see who continues to step up.

You think that pay off was pitiful??? Wait 'til the Santa Anita Derby when the TRUFECTA pays $4.80 for getting the it right?? Makes you want to stick with tracks like Charlestown guessing long shots doesn't it??

Quality Road what can I say. Just as I suspected, he's the real deal. He would have beaten Dunkirk by more if Johnny V. had peeked under his right shoulder instead of his left in the final turn. Velazquez didn't see Dunkirk coming outside or would have asked for more a bit earlier. Oh well, that leaves more in the tank for Louisville. I was less than thrilled to hear Pletcher's whining after the race. Keep that crap to yourself, it's just sour grapes the way it came out.

I'm still with you on this one draynay, the Wood might just produce the only competition for QR come May 2nd. Pioneer Of The Nile and Friesan Fire appear a bit slow at this point but they are both in more than capable hands. They could move up on my list with solid wins at a faster pace.

JASON:  You are being too much of a slow learner in this game.  You don't always have to wait until it is obvious to everyone, as in the case of Quality Road, to get on board.  Right now there is very little room left on the Quality Road bandwagon, however there are seats galore on the Big Drama train.  I have posted ad nauseum about the credentials of this horse for the Derby.  He has already been around two turns successfully twice as a 2YO and just ran a remarkably track record in his 3YO debut, coming off injury, surgery and missed training and you think that he still has more to prove, to be a formidable Derby candidate?  

I tell you one thing, If Harold Queen and David Fawkes shows up with this one at Churchill Downs they will only have Quality Road and maybe ...Win Willy (depending on the pace scenario) to fear.  Big Drama has the speed/pace, rateability, tenacity, gameness and propesity to win that is uncommon/characteristic of special thoroughbreds.  Lastly, don't be a "tom fool" about his pedigree.  He is inbred top and bottom to that "old fashioned" classic influence ...hmm the mention of old fashioned should get your attention Jason.  

Oh how  I love this time of year in the Sport of kings.  Don't you?    

Quality Road was impressive, but looked we'll TIRED in gallop out after the florida derby, Dunkirk didn't even look tired after the race to bad for pletcher. Todd never wins the  big one's... PON should be a horse to look at in the ky derby he has the 3 things going for him (trainer, jockey and breeding) and for larry jones you can make your exacta's now.

I felt Quality Road was a stand out in the Florida Derby. I also feel if somehow Dunkirk gets in the derby that he might be someone to contend with. Look at the race. You can have The Pamplemouse, Old Fashioned, Regal Ransom, Papa clem and  the speed favoring horse from the ilinois derby out in front. Quality Road, Friesan fire, desert party, I want revenge could stalking. They can all go out too fast, get in some traffic trouble or start their drive too early. This could lead horses like Dunkirk, Chocolate candy or Hold me back to get a chance in the derby. Remember everyone 20 horses and so many puzzles to solve within this race.

I agree with you Jason. I wish Pletcher would have said something before the race and not after. Why? Because he was absolutely correct. I watched and wagered alot of races at Gulfstream and the track had a HUGE speed bias all meet long. However, I thought QR ran a fantastic race and deserved to win. I also feel there are alot of trainers and owners of other horsed who hope like hell Dunkirk does not have enough money to run on the second of May.

Keep in mind, Kent's ride was NOT entirely his fault - the trainer specifically said that he wanted Theregoesjojo closer to the pace this time out, which completely took him out of his game.  Kent's not my favourite jockey, by any stretch of the imagination, but don't slam him for doing what he was told to do.

Derbyblogger: Dunkirk didn't look tired? We're you watching the same thing we all were? Even the announcers made mention of the fact the he lokked exhausted after the race. C'mon.

CB: Dont blame Kent? OK, I guess McPeek he wanted his horse to clip heels coming out of the turn too. C'mon.

Ranagulzion: I'll give you one thing, you are a dreamer, if not the sharpest tool. And, you make me laugh.

Jason:

You are on point! Ranagulzion isn't close to being the sharpest tool,lol.

May I suugest you let up on Desormeaux, especially in regard to both Jojo in the Florida Derby and Big Brown in the Belmont. Jojo finnished exactly where he should have. I'm certain he was under orders to put Jojo just off the pace and let him close in, as he had done in the 7 furlong race beating Quality Road who was sick that day. Unfortunately, Jojo had "missed" a crucial work, and was trying 2 turns for the first time, too. Those 2 turners have a way of muting a horse's closing ability, especially on a stretchout. With Big Brown's Belmont, it was a nightmare waiting to happen. Kent had very little to do with it, in my opinion except to stop riding the horse when he was well out of the race, when he suspected that the horse might be hurt. Why do I say all this? First, the horse had not trained well because of his hoof injury. Secondly, the horse had been take off of steroids. Thirdly, this was a relatively lightly raced horse, a total of five, (5), cinco, races, who had never raced from an inside post before. Remember, Dutrow even opted for post 20 in the Kentucky Derby, rather than go inside. Strange things indeed, can happen from the #1 post for horses that are unfamiliar with it. Big Brown proved it. The horse was rank from the start of the race, and could not settle. How much caused by breaking inside of every other horse, and how much by being withdrawn off steroids, is open to conjecture. The proof is in the fact that the race was run extremely slow, and he could never get involved.

Perfect, perfect, perfect! Quality Road, as I posted previously, could probably bounce in the Florida Derby, and still win the race. This is ideal.

Note to those thinking Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse, rarely do horses show the same adeptness and affinity for synthetic/turf and dirt. It's usually either, or, rarely both. You can understand why I Want Revenge was switched, in terms of surfaces. He did not handle the synthetic track well. Notice they have chosen not to run Pioneer or The Pamp on dirt, to keep the illusion going. Running fast on one surface is not always transferable to the other surfaces.

The switch can be a bit confusing for the horse, and they may not respond the first time. But, people think, what if? And, they speculate, just like the connections of those horses. My opinion about both Pioneer and The Pamp, is that they are both throwouts on the dirt surface. Let them beat my proven dirt horse. If the connections were at all serious they would have given their horse an opportunity to try the dirt surface. But, we will see what happens.

TO:DERBYBLOGGER

QR tired,give me a break! He won,didn't he?

Jason I could not agree with you more... Dunkirk will not race again before the Derby ... he is a very tired horse and left it all on the track.  Quality Road just went two turns for the first time and set a track record so if he was a little winded no big deal he has 5 weeks to get it together.  One more thing needs to be said... If Pletcher was a football coach he would have been fired long ago. 0 for 21 in the Derby tells you he has no idea how to get a horse ready for the Derby.  His overall record in Triple Crown races is about as bad as it gets.  You must also remember that each year he gets some of the best bred colts in the world.  Why do people continue to give him horses with that dismal record?

jshandler, QR looked TIRED. he's a great horse but for the ky derby  distances is going to be a??? he's no big brown or barbaro, 5 weeks rest QR will need it. on a bias (gp) track rated for is liking, the derby with QR running style sets up for closer.

Beyers take into consideration how fast the track was playing and the track was playing extremely fast. That's why the 103 makes sense. The final time is only part of the equation. You need to look at the track variant. Desormeaux's Derby mount will be Hold Me Back,so I don't think he's too upset over Theregoesjojo.

Finally somebody says this colt is the one to beat. It has been in the first place of my list since his FOY. Churchill Downs seems to fit well to horses running at Gulfstream. Dunkirk ran a nice race, but it was obvious he was not the horse many people thought. Instead, QR has shown he is a fantastic colt.

August Song: No need to rehash Kent's terrible ride in the Belmont, we've already done that. In the Florida Derby, you are still missing the key point. Forget about being too close to the pace for a second. The horse was coming with a big stretch move and had to be steadied b/c he clipped heels! He was done after that. It's right there and plain to see. We have no idea how he would have finished.

Anyone who thought QR looked tired after the race and Dunkirk didnt must have been watching a different race than me. Dunkirk galloped out past him but looked washed out whereas QR was being wrapped up quickly and looked like he was ready to go another round if asked

Derbyblogger: You might be breathing a little heavy too if you set a track record, dont ya think? He wasn't any more tired looking than any other horse, except Dunkirk, who looked like he was going to collapse. You're reaching.

Tim: Kent might nor care, but Im sure the owners and trainer do!

Thank you Perplexed. I thought I was going crazy.

Quality Road looked awesome, and ran fantastic, but too bad for Dunkirk, as he wins the race if not for the likes of Quality Road. I think Pletcher should put Dunkirk into another race, as this horse could develop with another race and still have enough for the Derby.

Desormeaux is starting to bug me, if he doesn't have the best horse in a race, the rides he gives are not going to help an underdogs chances. Maybe he's not the jockey he once was, and I use to think he could move a horse's chances up.

I think Quality Road may be better than Big Brown, I would love to have seen those two race. He doesn't appear as large as I remember Point Given appearing, but none the less, an absolutely beautiful, athletic looking creature. Regardless as what happens in the Wood or the Santa Anita, I think Quality Road will be stamped the favorite come Derby day. But remember the best horse doesn't always win the Derby, it's a different track for most and a huge field, and a new distance , and anything can happen.

I am looking forward to seeing how the next two big preps pan out, with special attention on Imperial Council and Chocolate Candy.

For some reason I love  Big Drama, don't know why other than I think he would still be undefeated except for the ride. He may not even be pointed to the derby as I think the owner does not have derby fever and feels the horse hasn't had enough time

august song, guess I saw a different ride from Desormeaux both times than you did. But I have him as my jockey in my RTTR stable so I think he's a good jockey but good jockeys screw up too

Jason... one more advantage Quality Road has over many is he has already seen 12 and 13 horse fields.  A few more will not really matter to him unlike Cali horses that run in 4 and 5 horse fields often.  Food for thought.

Dunkirk's chances of making the Derby gate got slammed today. Already there were only 19 available stalls since some British horse was gifted one for winning some English race. Today, 2 more stalls were taken by the top two finishers in the UAE Derby. This means there are only 17 stalls remaining for American horses. I think CDI needs to rethink how eligibility for the Derby is determined whenever more than 20 horses are entered. I think only graded races, retricted only by age, run in the United States during a horse's 3 year old year should be counted.

Kent can't hear out of one of his ears from an injury - might be the right ear - and he dismissed Dunkirk before the race so maybe when the gray colt roared up on his outside he was too surprised to do anything but get his own colt in trouble;)  I think Kent deserves an Eclipse for Most Odd High Profile Rides every year.

August, I must say, your post about POTN and Mousse needing to prep on dirt IYHO...that is the first time I have ever heard that Bob Baffert (or Zayat) is not serious about winning the KY Derby.  Let me explain it to you - Bob does not think that it matters.  The colt will run on dirt or he won't - nothing he can do about it.  Done. Deviating from his preferred home court SA Derby prep on a track he knows the horse likes so he can ship the colt, maybe make sure the colt hates the dirt and reacts to kick back so that now the colt is anticipating his distaste for dirt when he gets to Derby Day instead of picking off another Gr. 1 is not what Bob earns the big bucks for...he leaves ideas like that to message boards and blog posters;)

I'm with you, Jason, about Kent Desormeaux's ride on Theregoesjojo. I haven't forgiven him for how he rode Big Brown either. If you're a jockey on a horse with known feet problems, what is the point in whipping your horse to get an 11 or 12 length win? The owner and trainer should have put a stop to that after the Florida Derby. The way he was ridden - allowed to accelerate so quickly in the Preakness - had to have contributed to his developing another quarter crack. He rode Big Brown like a maniac during the Belmont, whether Big Brown had an off day or not, and he's had bad rides on other horses since then. Not just rides on horses that ran into problems, but rides on horses that make you shake your head and wonder what in the world he's doing. He left the West Coast and whined about people not giving him horses to ride. Maybe there was a good reason why they didn't. Enough - got that off my chest. And now all I have to say is - I think we are in for a very competitive Derby -  Quality Road, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and my favorite - The Pamplemousse!

TO JASON: Weren't there 4 track records tied/broken at Gulfstream yesterday? If so, I'm not impressed with the FL Derby time (or with the overall field). That being said, QR is a legitimate Derby horse (obvious now, but not obvious to many prior to yesterday's race).

As for Dunkirk, I hope he doesn't go in the KD. Said it before and will say it again now. If he isn't rushed, he could develop into any kind of horse. It should be obvious that too much is being asked of him, too soon. In his last 2 races, he tired and stopped badly in mid-stretch. In the ALW, there just wasn't a horse who could close from behind to expose that weakness. Then he ran into a buzzsaw yesterday. To be fair to Dunkirk, though, GP's extreme speed bias may be the reason he tired like that. I expect him to improve a lot on tracks that play more fairly.

I always begin with a horse's pedigree. QR has been in my top 5 for the KD since reading your Blood-Horse articles: "Loaded Fountain of Youth Has it All" and "Fountain of Youth Analysis and Selections." Checked the pedigrees of each horse you discussed. When I learned that not only is QR a grandson of Gone West (Mr. Prospector x Secrettame by Secretariat), but his maternal grandsire is Strawberry Road, QR went into my personal top 5.

I saw Strawberry race here in SoCal. He was a terrific horse; a champ in Australia and Germany; high-class stakes horse through age 8 in the U.S. His sire was out of one of the great race fillies of the 1960's and a Hall of Famer, Bowl of Flowers. A sweet, lop-eared filly, her nickname around the barn was "Mommy." She was a half-sister to Graustark and His Majesty.

QR's sire, of course, is Elusive Quality, a very fast sprinter who, at stud, has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Smarty Jones. Why anyone thought (or may still think) that QR can't get 1 1/4m is beyond me. My only question about QR is the same one I have about Friesan Fire. Are they horses for courses?

Big Red: As far as I know there were 2 track records yesterday. I looked at the Equibase charts and that's all I saw. Not sure where you got 4. Good points though. If you're a pedigree guy, which it looks as though you are, can't help but like QR even more.

Jason, I'm recollect you picked Theregoesjojo to win the Florida Derby, thinking he would improve. He didn't, and the clipping of heels was a mere afterthought. Dunkirk and Gomez had already swooped by him. He was a beaten horse at the 1/8th pole. If anything can be said for Kent, he tried to put up a good acting job, and hope for a disqualification. He was not beating either of the first 2 finishers, even if he didn't clip heels. You must have been looking at a different race than me. There was no explosive kick, and that was before the clipped heel incident. He was merely struggling to keep up, caught in the wrong part of the track. I suspect Theregoesjojo will return to his preferred one turn distances, which he and his kick are much better suited for.

August Song, Big Brown won the 1st race of His career from the 1 hole at Saratoga on Labor Day of 2007.

Quality Road is something special but I think there are some others that will be in the mix Derby Day. I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire for starters. The Pamplemousse remains to be seen on dirt. I think  a horse can run on both, but it takes a special horse.  What about this theory- a synthetics horse has an easier time running on dirt than visa versa? Does anyone have any thoughts on this? There Goes JoJo had a terrible ride.

I think it's so funny that Pletcher is 0 for 21 in the Derby.  I guess Luke didn't teach him how to get that part done.  I love how he entered his rabbit, scratched him when he saw there was enough honest speed, got his high priced, out of shape colt beat by a better horse and then whined on national tv about a speed bias.  What planet is this guy living on.  Maybe Dunkirk will get to share a paddock with Bandini and the Green Monkey!!!  Baffert's going to win the Derby!!!!

August Song: You're entitled to your opinion, but you're simply wrong. He was a beaten horse when he clipped heels? Really? How was he beaten when he was running RIGHT NEXT TO Dunkirk and Quality Road? They hadn't even entered the stretch yet. You must be a really good prognosticator to know how he would have finished if he didnt clip heels.

Quality Road is a very immpressive horse with an excellent , conservative trainer who i'm sure didnt tighten all the screws for the Flordia Derby, think Mr. evans is glad he started giving horsees to other trainers a few years ago besides just having Mark hennig train them.Jonny V also lucke dinto this mount, think Alan Garcia wishes he rode him in the FOY?? I was there the day he broke his maiden at the BIG A , very impressive and I think his 2nd start he ran very well, with a bad ride, he broke slow and was rushed up into a speed dual and did well to hold 2nd, I think my 60-1 future book in Vegas on Quality road I made in in Jan, looks good right now, but then again I also had Harlan's Holiday at 100-1 the year he finished up the track as the Derby favorite,as we all know horse racing can be a very cruel game.

Keep your QR posts going, I'll stick with Larry and his posse.

Skyfire: I dont believe Larry's posse ran yesterday; thus the posts on Quality Road.

This race was the perfect setup for Quality Road and he won as he should have. I never thought that Dunkirk would win this race and I thought he ran well, while not in the same class as Quality Road on this day.  I do not think that Quality Road can run a mile and a quarter with the likes of I Want Revenge, Pioneer of the Nile, The Pamplemousse, (who also cannot go a mile and a quarter) Friesan Fire and possibly Imperial Council. I am betting that he is not even in the money.    

Quality Road and Dunkirk are both young lightly raced colts with bright futures, however neither have a chance in Louisville.  Dunkirk will not get in unless he runs again and if he does that he would have had 4 races since Jan.  The Derby would be his 3rd in 5 weeks so do not think he will be running and Quality Road has had everything his own way and lacks 2 turn seasoning that proves formidable come May 2nd.  Of the last 15 winners 0 have had only 1 2 turn race, that makes Quality Road a throwout at a short price.  Next weekend should clear somethings up but one things for sure Quality Road is not a good bet come Derby Day.

Jason - I hear that the connections are now pointing Dunkirk to the Preakness and Belmont and expect to win them both. They think they will be short on earnings as a result of the 2 Dubai entries. Have you heard anything.

STOP THE WINING AND TAKE YOUR LICKING:

Todd Pletcher was complaining after the FL Derby that the track was too fast. What nonsense! Did he expect the Gulfstream track personnel to prepare a track suited to Dunkirk at the expense of the other entrants? When Keyed Entry ran a NTR in the 2007 Hutcheson Stakes, I bet he didn’t think the Gulfstream surface was too fast. The track was fast but fair. After listening to his interview I compared the stats of last two FL derbies and here are the COLD FACTS:

Scat Daddy         23.06, 46.78, 1:10.82, 1:35.92, 1:49.02

Big Brown          22.76, 45.83, 1:10.08, 1:35.18, 1:48.16

Quality Road      23.49, 46.83, 1:10.66, 1:35.28, 1:47.72

QR’s fractions for the first 4 quarter were slower than those recorded in 2008. His fractions for the first two quarters were slower than those recorded in 2007. Big Brown was not challenged so he coasted home. If a horse had challenged Big Brown, it is conceivable that he would have gone below 1:48.16. The trainer of the runner-up to Big Brown did not imply the track too fast. The fact that Dunkirk is not a fast as QR is certainly not the fault of Gulfstream Park's maintenance personnel. The splits for the FL Derby for the last three years reflect marginal differences. This track is always fast on derby day. The Olympic track in China was fast but yielded only five records. Three WR were recorded by the amazing Usain Bolt. Exceptional athletes are likely to record world records on fast surfaces. It is not inconceivable that Quality Road is a better athlete than Big Brown. He is certainly an imposing physical specimen. We already know he is better than Dunkirk irrespective of the excuses being brandished.

Quality Road’s dam sire Strawberry Road was a HOY in Australia and champion older horse in Germany. His second dam was sired by Alydar, sire of two derby winner i.e., recently euthanized Alysheba & Strike The Gold. His third dam was sire by Bold Bidder, sire of two derby winners i.e., Spectacular Bid & Cannonade. For those who thinks he will not get the derby distance, kindly forget it.

I am hopeful Dunkirk can get into his feed pan after his exposure to the monster Quality Road. Sometimes races can have adverse effects on horses, let’s hope he was not damage too badly and will be able to recover.

Jason, below is an extract from a posting I made on one of you other blogs:

Quality Road – Fits the profile of past derby winners perfectly. Sire by a grandson the Mr. Prospector – They have sired three of the last six derby winners. His dam is well bred and lightly raced. In fact, her record reflects zero earnings. Somethingroyal dam of the great Secretariat had zero earnings. QA dam sire Strawberry Road was also dam sire of the champion 2YO Vindication was Australian HOY and champion older horse in Germany. His sire Elusive Quality is one of just a handful of stallions that have achieved the Derby and Breeders Cup Classic double. I am amazed you have him ranked at #9 when he has been far more impressive than #2, 3 4 & 6. It’s your blog and you are allowed a do over.

I have to agree with August Song for the most part.  I think Theresgojojo looks more like a closing sprinter/miler than a classic distance horse.  Nothing wrong with that though.  

Will be interesting to see if he hooks up with Mr. Fantasy in the Withers.

I was most impressed with Quality Road's race yesterday.  

I am still aboard the Dunkirk bandwagon though.  He was put in a great move to close around the far turn (no one else did yesterday) and hung with QR.  He did look exhausted though.  Lack of seasoning starting to show.  Back to back 1 1/8 races is alot to ask for a horse with only one start.

This might be the best Derby field I've seen assembled.  But I've only been watching since 2000.

As far as Dunkirk's 150k in GSE, he may just squeeze in, but I don't think he is on the same level with QR, FF, 'Mousse, POTN, or IWR.

Don't discount Win Willy so quickly, Monarchos won the KY Derby and Carson City has a broodmare sire.

Actions speak louder than words.

Quality Road has certainly got the action, period!

Jason,

A little disappointed in your comments about Big Drama...

The horse was a very solid Derby contender before he was injured, has won at 1-1/16 miles twice as a two year old and ran a track record yesterday after a 4 month layoff. So what if it was 7 panels?

Back in the day EVERY horse came back and began their 3 year old season with a 7 furlong or 8 furlong race and stretched back out.

QR is an outstanding colt. However, Big Drama IS pointing to the Preakness Stakes. I talked to a couple of south Florida trainers yesterday at GP who seriously maintained that Big Drama would give QR a run for his money at any distance. Considering the colt also ran the fastest 6f in GP history, then held on to set the track record at 7f, if BD puts his head in front at Pimlico, the others will be in for the fight of their life to get past that one.

Rabagulzian, you are not a dreamer, you just see things the way a few south Florida trainers do...remember, Jason liked Jo Jo in the Florida Derby, when everyone knew the Florida Derby favors a speed horse with stamina or a close up stalker.

Quality sucks he's a gimic Dunkirk will win unless the graded earnings but if he doesn't get in the pamplemousse looks the horse to beat if he can go the distance and Churcill downs surface.

Awesome display, I knew Quality Road would do it.  He is built huge in the chest, has anyone else noticed?  

Ranagulzion-I was also really impressed with Big Drama (and I don't think he should have been DQ'd either).  He was coming off a long layoff from injury and was on top of all derby watch lists last year.  I think if given the chance he could be a force in the Derby.

August Song,

You are confused about Big Brown never running from the inside. The horse broke his maiden from post 1 and destroyed the field wire to wire. He also ran from the inside in his allowance romp.

Zito said that had BB went to the front and challenged Da'tara, DT would not have lasted. They were hoping BB would try and rate off of them and try that late burst of speed (not understanding Belmont at 12 furlongs). Afleet Alex did it in a race with cheap speed, but rarely does a horse make a late move in the Belmont. That is why Big Red went straight to the front.

The last 4 winners of the triple crown won the Belmont going wire to wire. 6 of the 8 won it wire to wire period. That is a trend, folks. The short run-up to the 1st turn mandates a horse like Big Brown or Smarty Jones be controlling the pace coming out into the backstretch. Big moves on the second turn are suicide because winners of the Belmont typically run at one pace. That, and not the move too early excuse, is what got SJ beat. Prado said he ran the same pace on Birdstone around the track. Belmont is for frontrunners and plodders.  And its easy to win on the front end (Da'tara), even if you can't get 10 panels (Da'tara). Big Sandy at 12 furlongs is configured like GP at 9 panels. And sitting off the pace is a formula for failure in either race unless all that in front of you is cheap speed.

So, I am inclined to believe Kent D blew the ride on BB and he blew the ride on Jo Jo this past Saturday. Then again, at least he was not crazy like Coa and placed his charge along the dreaded GP rail on that drying out track.

Bellamy---ER--Quality Road ran on a glib, speed favoring/frontrunners/track record setting track for his big win....or...was I talking about Bellamy Road the whole time?.....Folks, that's all we saw Sat....we'll have to wait till first Sat in May before Bell--er--Quality Road runs on a real dirt track.....

Quality Road ran an awesome race yesterday but he wont be able to catch the pamelmousse. I have seen alot of horse races in my life and the pamelmousse is a superfreak and will own the SA derby next week!

Big Drama will win the roses if his connections have a change of heart. Put him in an allowance route and ship him to Louisville.

TO: HARRY NICKLAS:

You must be kidding! A horse with QA talent and you state that he sucks. What happened Harry,did you lose a little money on that race yesterday? lol What does he have to do in your eyes to prove he might be something special? Give me a break!

Three things that impressed me about Quality Road Saturday:

#1. Tactical speed and stamina to make it last. He relaxed right off a pretty stiff pace and moved effortlessly to the lead down the backside. It will be crucial in the Derby finding a spot close up and avoiding traffic.

#2. 1:47.72. Speed favoring, lightning fast track or not, thats impressive. Don't typically see many sub 1:48 preps. Lets remember that more times than not in the Derby, the first horse to the 1/8th pole wins the race.

#3. The way he reacted when met eye-to-eye by Dunkirk. Dunkirk had the run on QR and should have gone straight by him. QR dug in and simply beat back Dunkirk. We saw something extra in Quality Road on Saturday that not all horse have. Very impressive and enjoyable to watch.

I've been on the Quality Road bandwagon since before the FOY. But even after the Florida Derby, I'm not ready to lay the roses over his back quite yet. No doubt he's a talented horse just starting to make a name for himself. But you have to worry about bouncing off a track record performance, a quicker Derby pace running him into the ground, post position troubles, and a hundred other things. But I believe this guy is for real and will be heard from in the spring and summer. Looking forward to following this big boy. (seriously, is it 17 hands?? this guy is a beast)

Geronimo2123:  What is all this talk about Big Drama ?  A very good horse but beat West Side Bernie by 1 ? Not to mention has NEVER been past 1 1/16th and now suddenly you want Quality Road to be worried that he will be waiting for him along with Dunkirk in the Preakness?  This Ones for Phill went nose to nose with Big Drama all the way to the wire... ask This Ones for Phil how HIS race with Quality Road turned out... Don't try to get fancy like everyone else did last year when it was OBVIOUS Big Brown was going to win the Derby.  Quality Road comes out of the race in good shape and trains well at Churchill call it a day...everyone else will be running for 2nd place.

How can Big Drama win the derby? He ran only 7 furlongs and barely beat This one's for Phil. Didn't Quality Road demolish the same horse one month earlier. Also you asking that Big Drama run a mile and a quarter in 5 weeks when he has only raced at 7fl I understandhe has done two turns at age 2 but that was months ago. He needs to get fitness level back on par with the others like QR, FF and IWR. Please let him go to the derby, I will narrow down my derby choices.

Jason, I frankly didnt see Jojo clip heels. I saw Kent take back on him, but I've watched the replay and didnt see the clipping of heels. This stuff can happen quickly, so I might have missed it. Did you read that somewhere, did Kent say that he clipped heels? Did he clip Dunkirk or Quality Road? I just havent heard that before, and honestly I thought Jojo was backing up and that the "takeup" was largely theatrics by Kent. That's just what I saw.

Maybe I was correct with my initial impressions that Gulfstream was "ridiculously" fast on Saturday.  Evidently, the Beyer team agrees giving  Quality Road a 103 for the Florida Derby.

Beyers shouldn't be everything, but that 103 causes me to pause. Clearly, the Beyer crew doesn't feel that the time of the Florida Derby was particularly special given how fast the track was.

I have to admit, I am a little disappointed w/ the figure; I thought a 107 would be at the low end of possible figs. But, the track was fast. Maidens went 1:09 for 6 furlongs.  

A further note on Quality Road being assigned a 103 Beyer for his Florida Derby win. I think a key variable the Beyer team used to come up with a 103 for Quality Road is the performance of Stately Character. Prior to the Florida Derby, Stately Character had run 8 races, but had never Beyered over 83. On top of that, his Beyers were not showing improvement; his last 4 races were given Beyers of 82-83-21-82. Stately Character looked like a horse that was doubtful to improve in the Florida Derby, so his consistent 81-83 Beyer performance could be used as a reference point in the Florida Derby. This, apparently, is what the Beyer crew did.

If it was assumed that Stately Character ran another 82-86 Beyer in the Florida Derby (maybe giving him a few points for some slight improvement), the Beyers for the horses ahead of him start falling into line. Stately Character finished 2 and a half lengths behind Jojo; 2.5 lengths translates into 4 Beyer points at 9 furlongs, so Jojo got a 90 Beyer.  Jojo finished 6 lengths behind Dunkirk, or 10 Beyer points. So, Dunkirk gets a 100. And Dunkirk was beaten 1.75 lengths by Quality Road, which is 3 Beyer points, so Quality Road gets a 103.

Did the Beyer team adjust the Florida Derby downwards? Perhaps. Had Quality Road been given a 113 for the Florida Derby, it would have meant Stately Character ran a 96, which doesnt seem likely. However, more unusual things have happened. But it seems like the Beyer team felt that if Quality Road had run a truly fast race, he would have beaten a horse like Stately Character by more than 10 lengths.

If we take the Beyer figure for the Florida Derby at face value (I was expecting 107 at the lowest), it means Quality Road regressed/bounced about 5-6 lengths from the FOY and that Dunkirk did not improve nearly as much from his 2nd to 3rd start as he did from his 1st to 2nd.

Was Quality Road's regression an expected bounce from an amazing figure, or did the extra eighth have something to do with it (or a combo of the two)? How much improvement can we expect from Dunkirk in the Preakness/Belmont (or Derby if he gets in), and could he have some distance limitations as well?

Personally, I think Quality Road is a wonderful horse and deserves to be on top of the Derby rankings. I also give Dunkirk alot respect, and think that Quality Road, in being able to turn back Dunkirk's late charge, showed a dimension we hadnt seen before. It was a quality race by two quality colts.

However, we are still 5 weeks from the Run for the Roses, and alot can happen.  First, I just hope Quality Road and others are able to make it into the starting gate healthy, and that Dunkirk gets in at all (although it wouldnt be a tragedy if he doesnt).  Typically, about 2 or 3 prospects are withdrawn due to some injury in the weeks leading up to the Derby. It's guaranteed that some of the other prospects will lose form, or train poorly, not like the Churchill surface, or not adjust to the extra eighth of a mile. Typically, after every Derby there are about 4 trainers who are actually proud of how their horses ran and 16 others wondering what happened.

There are still 2 weeks of preps to go (3 if you include the Lexington), and the Derby landscape is likely to change considerably between now and then. From a Beyer standpoint, the Florida Derby is not a standout race, and horses such as I Want Revenge (113), Friesan Fire (104), The Pamplemousse (103), Win Willy (102), Rachel Alexandra (100,99), Take the Points (100), Old Fashioned (100), Imperial Council (98), Hold Me Back (97), and Pioneer of the Nile (95) have run comparable numbers. Of course, Quality Road has displayed an upside rivalled by only I Want Revenge.  However, as it concerns The Pamplemousse's 103, remember that even grade 1 older horses have had trouble running a Beyer over a 103 on the Santa Anita Pro-Ride (Einstein a 100 for the Santa Anita Handicap, and Well Armed 89 in the San Pasqual and 99 when 2nd in the San Antonio).

Quality Road, though, has certainly thrown down the guantlet with his last two performances. Will any horse take up his challenge over the next few weeks? Does he have an equal? We shall see. It looks like we have a very promising crop this year.

    Both QR and Dunkirk looked great in the FL Derby.  QR was aided a bit by the track bias, but nontheless, the effort was sensational.  Tough break for Dunkirk.  Without another race before the Derby, it's almost certain he won't make the field.  His connections will have to wait and cross their fingers and hope some of the horses above him decide to jump ship.  Not only that, but they have to hope the rest of the prep races don't produce any "Win Willys" and other horses jump ahead of him on the graded stakes earnings list.  He's sitting at #20 right now and that doesn't include Mafaaz so I guess in reality he's #21.  That also doesn't include whatever fluke horse wins the IL Derby, Lexington, etc.  I hope the horse gets in the KY Derby as he would have a better shot at hitting the board than over 1/2 the field would.  I think this brings back into question whether or not Churchill should reevaluate their Derby entry criteria.  Graded earnings in a GII or GIII should not count the same as graded earnings in a GI.  Same can be said for graded earnings in a sprint vs. a route, but who am I to judge, right?

    Anyway, on to other TC horses, to the people who keep saying Big Drama would win the Derby if his connections enter him, give me a break!  You can't be serious.  In his career, name one serious Derby contender he has beaten?  Besides, having one prep this year and that being at 7f is no way to enter the Derby.  I would be willing to bet he bounces like a superball in his next having run that huge of an effort 1st off the bench in 3-4 months.  Even if his connections would throw him an allowance route race like some have suggested, that would mean he would have been off for 3-4 months, then would have to run 3 races in 5 weeks to win the Derby.  Yeah, that's a great plan.

    For those saying The Pamplemousse will win the Derby, also, give me a break!  He might win the SA Derby, but the horse has had everything his own way.  I don't think he's ever been challenged on the lead yet.  He looked pretty good in his last, but was visibly blowing hard after that race.  No way he's able to carry that speed an extra 1/8 of a mile in the Derby with other horses challenging him on the front end the 1st part of the race (and make no mistake about it, he will be challenged for the lead in the KY Derby).  Hell, come to think of it, I hope Big Drama's connections do enter him in the Derby that way BD and The Pamplemousse can knock each other out by the 1/4 pole.  Maybe I'm starting to sound a little bit like Dray in my boldness, but January-March is for KY Derby dreaming.  We're coming up on April now so it's time for reality to set in.

If i owned a horse i would never let Desormeaux ride it.

Quality Road showed just what I suspected. He's #1 going into the Derby and Dunkirk's for real, he will make some noise in the future.

Nice try Pletcher, maybe next year they will consult with you on how to groom the track. I can see it now, Todd Pletcher: Head Groundskeeper and still looking for his first Ky. Derby winner. Johnny V. ain't no dummy, he knows to win a Derby he's got to ride for someone other than his "big daddy" Pletch.

Hey draynay, can't wait to see I Want Revenge and Imperial Council hook up this weekend. On the "left coast" Pioneer Of The Nile and Chocolate Candy look to make soup outta "the mousse".

Too much fuss is being made of Dunkirk's graded earnings. The connections chose this course. They can rectify it by starting Dunkirk in one of the remaining preps. It won't matter though. Quality Road is the best horse to race anywhere in the last 20 years. We will discover this later.

I think the first 3 finishers of the FD are all outstanding horses.  QR obviously has it all going on right now. Freaky horse.  Dunkirk is amazing.  That move he made on the turn is one I haven't seen at GP in a long time.  The fact that he wasn't done after making that move tells me this is a horse with a future.  If his lack of seasoning doesn't defeat him he could be very salty in the Derby.  He will get a more than honest pace to set up his furious closing kick.  JoJo should be given a pass because of the heel clip. Nothing was closing at GP Saturday, so being he was far from disgraced, let's see another one from him before dismissing him as a closing sprinter.  One thing I've learned in over 40 years of watching races is to never make knee-jerk judgements.  Whittingham used to say something like you have to wait 10 years after a horse has died before you can safely conclude he can't do such and such.

Brian A.---Yes, I noticed Quality Road's chest and mentioned it on another blog. It looks as though he could have a tremendous heart/lung capacity, which bodes well for any athlete.

don't think the Florida Derby has changed anyone's mind...if you liked QR you are happy, and if you liked Dunkirk, you're hopeful. Would love to see the head on from the 3/8's to the 1/8 pole...race riding is a part of the game, and I think JR was on the runner that had a tactical advantage...JoJo trying to insure an honest pace[after all McPeek's runner had beaten him once], and Dunkirk trying to pick up the pieces. Still think the Derby committee need to alter their standard/qualify ...anyone who saw Dunkirk make that turn move vs argueably the Derby favorite had to be impressed. Kudos to Jimmy Jerkens, I still look at Dunkirk as a colt with a bunch of upside at this stage of his career and hope that both colts came out of the Florida Derby non the worse for wear, and are able to move forward off that performance. I can't wait to see the "sheets"guys,and their thoughts on the race

I'm sorry but most of you in this blog are some of the biggest band wageners I've seen. I saw QR run back in November and say there is my Derby Horse. Yes I can say that will never happen again picking the derby favorite 6 months early. Some were aboard after his win but then left just as fast when he finished 2nd next time out. Before the Florida Derby almost no one including all the experts, the writers and the public considered QR a threat. 14-1 in future pool, between 8-15 in everyone's top 20. When a allowence winner is favored over him, cmon???? Atleast it's nice to hear that everyone has woken up and smelled the quality coffee.

Just one more thought surrounding Big Drama and the Kentucky Deby.  Perhaps the Delta Jackpot promoters shoul include an incentive in their Stakes package in the future for a winner of that race to make it into the Kentucky Derby field as well as to win it.  I believe that a lot more trainers from here on will begin to see the wisdom of locking down their Derby qualification with added bonuses accompanying an actual start in the Kentucky Derby.  A word to the wise is sufficient (if anyone is listening).  Todd Pletcher should also pay attention because it will be a shame if Dunkirk misses out because of earnings shortfall.

Bill,

Dunkirk's move on the turn reminded me of the move Monarchos made in the Fla. Derby a few years back. As impressive as it was Quality Road and Johnny V. got caught a little flat-footed when he came up on them but QR showed why he's going to be the favorite on May 2nd. The acceleration to re-seperate himself from Dunkirk was just as impressive.

I am confused about all the big talk about Big Drama.  Very nice race.  Very nice horse.  But if his trainer thinks he should bypass the Derby...then wouldn't he be the person in the position to know best?

JASON:  Being a dreamer gives great pleasure when one is dreaming of Quality Road, Big Drama and Win Willy hooking up in the Kentucky Derby.  It's much better than waking up to the NIGHTMARE that "Jojo" Mr Fantasy and Old Fashioned has been so far.  Sorry, if I'm rubbing salt into your wound but someone needs a reality check and its not Ranagulzion.

MIKE RELVA:  Bring something positive to the table for once, will you?

Ranagulzion: We'll see who comes up with the winner and exotics on May 2. Until then, nobody is right or wrong.

And give up on Big Drama dude, the trainer even said he aint going to the Derby. Unless you're the owner and are going to override him, you're wasting your time.

Travis L,

A number of bloggers here have been onto QR for some time now. I for one have some extremely nice exactas from the futures pool and a nice win bet to cash if he continues his domination. Nothing is certain but the odds were too good to pass up in Pool 2. I've found that the best value you can get from the futures seems to come from those listed but not running the same week as the pool comes out. The winners during futures week always get pounded down by the time the pool closes. That and the first time a horse I like is a single entry and out of the "field" is mostly where I look for value. This time both scenarios played out for Quality Road.

I don't think enough attention was paid to Quality Road's stamina influences from his Dam by alot of people before Saturday. The distance question was not as much of a concern for me in those regards. Now that he's proven to the world he can get 1 1/8 with authority (and in swift fractions with another gear when challenged)there is much less doubt about his ability to get one more furlong. Keep your fingers crossed that nothing happens to him and things go as planned until May 2nd. If he gets to the gate in good order, doesn't get caught up in bad racing luck, and the jock makes the right decisions, he will be awful tough to beat.

The greatest trainer of my lifetime, H. Allen Jerkens was never fortunate enough to have a horse good enough to win a Triple Crown Race (or a BC Race). Yet he is revered by all the other trainers...he is indeed referred to as "The Chief". How ironic is it that his son, Jimmy has already won 2 BC Races and has what looks like a super horse going into this year's Derby. Jimmy has learned his trade well from the master.

Add Johnny V. to the picture and you can't ask for better connections.

While anything can happen in a 20 horse field, my money will be on QR May 2nd. He may be what racing desperately needs right now...a real superstar. I hope so. This is a very good crop of 3 Yr olds, so if he can dominate them in the Triple Crown, he will indeed be that superstar.

Rachel Alexandra/Quality Road in the Oaks-Derby DD.

Travis L. what are you talking about? You liked Quality Road first? Who cares and no one liked him before the Florida Derby ? Huh? I told everyone who would listen he was the real deal and would beat Dunkirk like he was a step child. You don't have to worry about the wagon getting too full because when Imperial Council romps in the Wood and the Pamplemousse runs wild at Santa Anita there will be plenty of people filling those wagons too. Step up before a race and show us how smart you are don't expect too much glory after the face it will fall on deaf ears.

TO: RANAGULZION:

I would speak about "bringing something positive to the table" if I were you,lol. I get turned off by people that jump on and off bandwagons,also  people that slam horses no matter what they do,which shows a limited ability of horseracing. My posts from the past couple of weeks indicated that I picked QR to win. My advice is don't throw stones while living in a glass house!

Is it just me or does this years 3yo crop look special? I remember last year and handicapping all the derby 'prospects'. I think this year's Ky. derby with provide plenty of betting value. I think we will see on at least 5+ horses that can win on May 2nd. (IMHO).

The Beyers figs. lack credibility for me these days.  There are many examples of revised figures after the fact.  Just recently, see how Capt. Candyman's fig. for the the stake we won earlier at GP was revised down about 4 or 5 points.  Barbaro and BB both came in south of 110 with their one mile and 1/8 preps., so nothing lost there with QR at 103.  I'm not going to spend much time trying to rationalize the beyers figs of 113 and 103 respectively.  QR is in the top group as we sort through the April races.  

Quality Road did everything right, JV I thought waited too long to cut him loose but it didn't matter he showed he was a nice horse. I have new respect for Dunkirk. August Song was right-the result is correct, I saw a different race than you if you are blame KD. Getting himself between wasn't brilliant but he was on the 3rd best horse. For what it is worth I bet a one way $50 Ex with QR/T thinking Dunkirk wasn't good enough to split them. I know how to say I'm wrong and not make excuses for my mistakes. Then again, I gamble seriously and you have to leave your personal prejudices at the door and go with logic and facts. KD ride wouldn't be on my top five but not going to change my opinion. Too bad he didn't ship to Sunland for the money. Not making the Derby is a good thing so he won't get beat up and lose heart.

Question though--ARE THEY GOING TO RuN THE KY. DERBY ON CEMENT? Wish I could get more of a read from this race other than appreciation of the first 2 finishers as nice horses.

On another note.

Taking another swipe at Win Willy? I am not sold on him but put $25 @ 60-1 on line, since you didn't take my offer. Best value left on a maybe. I still Have FF on top of my list and him WW somewhere 7-9. Seems to me those with records of picking winners should be cocky. Knocking horses that win and making excuses for those who don't. Just a thought.

I've been resisting Quality Road because I have blinders on, just like my favorite Fresian Fire.  QR could be the one to beat though, he looked real powerful, his win was not luck or lack of competition.  As a FF junkie I I watched that race this weekend and thought "Oh Crap".  

Marc W: I didnt take your offer on Win Willy? lol. Look at previous comments. You're the one who backed out of the bet dude. You shoulda used that $25 to buy dinner.

Both horses were impressive. IMO Dunkirk had a much tougher task coming from behind. If he was exhausted maybe it had something to do with him being ridden HARD from the 1/2 mile pole. He still managed to gallop out 1/4 mile in front of Quality Road. Can't wait to see these two hook up again on a surface that plays more fairly.

Draynay,

I was always rooting for Quality Road to succeed. (In case you haven't noticed..lol) I am and have been a huge Allen Jerkens fan since I was a kid...and that goes all the way back to his Beau Purple beating the likes of Kelso and Carry Back. Was there for his stunning upsets of Secretariat in his Tri Crown year with TWO different horses. And so many more. I always have a few bucks on his or Jimmy's entries and have made my biggest scores with their horses.I knew QR had talent when he broke his maiden. But he has exceeded my wildest expectations the last two races. I have a $60 win @ 14-1 in Kentucky Derby future pool two that's looking mighty good right now!

And I'll key him in all the exotics May 2nd.

MIKE RELVA:  You and your buddy DRAYNAY are all over Quality Road now but truth be told you are both waggonist and johnny come lately, respectively.

DRAYNAY:  I see where you've tried to knock down the brilliance of Big Drama by belittling This One's For Phil and Westside Bernie.  Let's face it, This One's For Phil has earned the highest Beyer speed figure of any 3YO this season (116) and he was forced out of his comfort zone in the FOY both in terms of running style (setting the blistering fractions) and going a mile (a shade too far for him).  Therefore at seven furlongs in the Swale where he ran true to his form in the Sunshine Millions, it was an awesome performance by Big Drama to outrun TOFP up the lane in track record time, coming off a 4 months layoff.  Let us be honest in our assessment of the performances of these brilliant thoroughbreds even if you missed out on the selection.

By the way it will be interesting to see if Imperial Council can outrun Westside Bernie for a minor share of the Wood Memorial.  He has already been measured by I Want Revenge and Hello Broadway.  Don't forget that buddy.

Quality Road ran quite the race and has a lovely turn of foot that is hard to ignore. As for Kent Desormeaux, I still don't understand how he keeps getting the choice mounts. I do recall last year at the Spa when he was taken of a Zayat / Mott horse and the mount was given to Shaun Bridgmohan who won handily. Kent was injured nor did he book off any other horses that day. I thought the bloom came off of him then but he's still getting on board. True that half the top U.S. riders were in Dubai this weekend.

By the way, I managed to make my first outing to Gulfstream the week before. Although racing purists hate it, my wife and I enjoyed it immensely. A lovely day and a few winners helped.

Draynay:  I know that we share ane eye for the classy thoroughbred and with you and "Relva" being  waggonists, I look forward to seeing both of you on the Big Drama train later on.

Just like we talked about on your live blog Jason, Dunkirk is a little over hyped and Quality Road was the real deal in this race.

Draynay?

First off if everyone was aboard QR that's fine, I just didn't see it that way. Second Dunkirk in my eye's ran one heck of a race and if you love QR you have to like Dunkirk. As for The Pamplmousse I also believe he will win, however fall short derby day with the distance. As for Imperial Council, he will close for second with I Want Revenge winning. There, now you can see how smart I am.

Why would I take a bet Derby day if win wins the AR Derby and take 5-1 and risk him not running because they still have to put up the money as a late nom or get hurt? Give me the 60-1 I got on line and I will bet another $10.

Yes, I can be wrong about him and he may have been a fluke-I just don't think so. I still think FF is the horse to beat at this moment although I wish he would have another race in him. I WILL NOT though, second guess someone who trained the filly 3 yr old champ and  the last two KY Derby runners up.

I will get a decent price on WW in the AR Derby. If I am wrong so be it my money burning not yours. If he tanks, I will admit being wrong, lose my money, and not make excuses if there are none. The Derby winner is still up in the air in my mind. Three more big races to show. (The Keeneland/Bluegrass race I am not counting-Pity it has come to that)

The KY Derby will not be run on cement, so although I respect the FL results, but it is tainted as are the Snth races.

IF--- Theregoesjojo somehow runs in the Derby I would give you odds he doesn't hit the first 5 or go horse for horse which I will be happy to offer 5 or 6 options for you that will be high odds. It wouldn't be fair to take one of the stars. The Texas $300,000 would be a good spot for him to get a graded stake in his resume.

I don't boast about $4.40 winners or like having bet Well Armed since I wasted him in ex's and tri's and lost my money with no straight bet-my bad, only when I cash something worth while. Even then my boasts are muted only money in the pocket is important.

Admittedly, since I have taken some abuse for liking the way WW won, I will enjoy him if he should repeat and go to the Derby as a real contender and have a two minute thrill at 60-1 for $1500. At least I will not have to brush off the chalk from my clothes if he doesn't.

Lol... you have to love racing... Marc W. How can you watch the Florida Derby and still believe FF is the horse to beat?  What color are the clouds in your world?  

Win Willy ? You won't have to brush chalk off of you?  There is no style points for picking a horse at 40 to 1 who has no real shot of winning while someone like me cashes my ticket at 3 to 1.  There is no honor in throwing away a ticket only in cashing a ticket. If you're looking for "value" try buying stocks.  There is no value in being wrong.

According to drewclearwhenroused(3/29@9:03pm): Of the last 15 Derby winners 0 have had one 2-turn race,that makes QR a throwout at a short price....Whoops!Bummer! If true,that and the somewhat high quality of the "real" contenders coupled with him only having 4 races prior to the Derby does not bode well for what little chance he had anyways. Food for thought folks.   :)  I'm telling you though,after watching him barely beat a tired,but gutsy Dunkirk yesterday,..."QR will finish 10+ lengths behind the Derby winner.His perfect scenario/trip days are over with".

It was well into the 80's Saturday, wasn't it? So any horse that did any running should be tired. I was initially agreeing withe the TV assessment of Dunkirk until I saw him cantering back- his ears were pricked up. Exhausted horses do NOT have pricked ears. Tired maybe but I don't think he was drained.

As for Quality Road, let's see how the "new" schedule for the Florida Derby will work now. I can only remember failures in the KY Derby from horses that ran sub 1:48 in their last prep. Bellamy Road and Hansel come to mind. Of course those races were closer to the Derby. As for those anointing QR as the greatest thing since sliced bread, c'mon people he's won 1 G1 in a soft field. The word "great" gets tossed around too easily nowadays.

nola, sorry fort his timeout, but great name[brought back the song Lola/Kinks for me...]aspradle..am I misssing something or did the top 2 finishers set "track" records for the distance? I was encouraged by Dunkirks' efforts, and am looking forward to his 3 yo. campaign. Everyone seems impressed by QR physical appearance, looks like Dunkirk on appearance takes a back seat to nobody. The other non sense of who picked whom when and for how much, in my view, you got the ticket, and the value is there what's the diff who knows, as long as your cashin'...I tip my hat to anyone who can eeck out a living, even the guys that sell the info, wouldn't be doin it if they could make a profit betting, now would they. The more someone bets on your selection, the less you get paid.Not a tuff concept..the rest is all ego driven..granted entertaining, but I guess a lot of people are in need of others approval.

TO:Ranagulzion

You have the right to believe what you want,but the fact is if you look at the blogs over the course of a few weeks you will discover that I was one of several that picked QA to win. Say what you want,but unlike many I don't slam horses for winning or not! Some idiot on this blog said QR sucked.Just illustrates how little he really knows.

JCRobinson... many had Dunkirk listed number one on their Derby top 5 and Theregoesjojo was on just about everyone's top 10.  Quality Road goes out whips them both setting a track record on a track and race that has produced 2 of the last 3 Derby winners and now you want to run down his win?  Wow... I only hope this horse doesn't do something crazy like win the Derby in record time... EVERYONE would then hate the horse....lol...here come the haters Jason... get ready.

Churchill Downs has a very long (longest?) homestretch.  Who will benefit from that?

Pray for mud for Desert Party or for horses to go much slower for Shug's horse----lets see who is "Brilliant"????????? Oh, lets not forget Giant Oak since it is more than a one-pronged attack. By the way, not to rub it in, nor boast, remember I posted the 400 tri and say press on it more than once--I jokingly also gave readers a nice winner at the Meadowlands trots when pointing out in an analogy that Pepper's Pride was not running in the Derby as an example to keep on topic. What did the say on Dragnet---only the facts, and they at the moment back me for being much sharper than some on my critics--and its in print.

I lost on the same exactor someone-guess who?-- gave out, but certainly wouldn't have touted a chalky pick, win or lose grade one kids can pick those. Didn't the tri pay $12? Wow, I guess they looked like the best 3 horses in the race. Wonder who actually boxed exactors and tri's-they're sharpies.

I do know I am not stupid enough to say QR can't win (like someone/a few say about others coming off nice wins)-although I feel safe with a couple others I have discounted who are still on lists. What happens when the 1st race maidens run in 1:12 4/5 Derby day not 1:09? Only very special horses can beat huge bias, but the horse can't help that he gets an edge-he can and did take advantage of it. It just didn't prove as much as it should have unfortunately.

Sooooooo-again, lets see the next few before pontificating.

Quality is the real deal he's proved it twice now in stakes comp.He can only improve off this race and has a solid trainer.Never mind this nonsense he was tired past the finish line, he was being geared down as should be when a race is over. He's the best in fl and will have his chance to win it in the Derby. Dunkirk ran a big race and should improve a lot.Why not run him in lexington if earnings are the determining factor and owner wants in. It'll only be 4 races in his career and will get him sharper. Horses today need to be better prepared and less pampering like horse champions of  past decades.Mikie R did predict this win on previous blogs long before the race that is a fact.

SLEW.em.ALL:  QR losing the Derby by 10+ lengths?  You need 10 cups of coffee bro.  I think that your dismissal of Quality Road is crazy but I do admire the audacity of your prediction.  The only reason for not ignoring your assessment is that you have been a pretty good handicapper thus far ...but I hasten to add that you are jeopardizing that credibility right here right now.  We'll see my friend.

I agree with august_song that theregosjojo was already a beaten horse by the time the clipped heels incident occured. kent was already working hard on him to keep up with QR, while on the outside, dunkirk was already a length past him. after the incident, jojo made no impression on the top two as they were both pulling away from him.

Something wrong here? The comment posted above at 6:41 PM yesterday attributed to me is not the comment I submitted. The comment I submitted was more or less a simple reminder that Dunkirk has to be better than top 20 in graded earnings since 1 of the 20 gate stalls has already been reserved for an English runner and two horses which amassed plenty of loot from the inflated Dubai purses are being groomed for other stalls by their Arab connections. I swear I knew nothing about Kent's ear problems, any of the other remarks or how that comment became attributed to me.

"We changed our tactics a bit because the thinking was we needed to stay within striking distance of Quality Road," said McPeek. "He was the best horse on Saturday, no ifs, ands, or buts. He's got more speed and he's got more stamina than us."

well when you ask Todd Pletcher 2 minutes after the race, when he thinks he has a "monster" horse that can win the derby after 2 track records have been broken with a monstrous speed bias, after his horse ran huge to even be competitive, I can see how he is upset.  I am sick to my stomach over it, and Dunkirk should feel cheated because that track was not even close to fair.  He was exhausted so maybe the Preakness is just the best solution anyways.  You can keep him out of the Derby, but you better be ready off 2 weeks rest for the "blue-blooded" dunkirk

Pletcher had every right to be upset.  The only way they could have made the track at Gulfstream on Fla Derby day favor the speed horses more would have been to pave it!  

Quality Road WILL NOT win the Kentucky Derby.  Even if they roll the track down tight as a drum he will face much more speed in the Derby and will spit the bit at the eighth pole.

That ride Kent D gave jojo in the florida derby was TERRIBLE!  If the owner is smart he would switch jocks.

TO: 2TimeVALLEY PLAYER

Thanks!

One of the nicest features of this blog is how easy it is to ID  and skip over anything Drynay has entered. It's all intentionally very provocative and obnoxious and there are so many others with interesting and useful comments to enjoy.

Kent D was not Big Browns problem in the Belmont it was a flopping shoe.

I will join the Big Drama bandwagon. He has solid 2 year old back-class, and, except for the dq, the Swale was about as good a comeback as a horse could have. He has shown he can run fast, and he is already proven at 8.5 furlongs.

However, I do not like Big Drama for the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness, maybe. But so what if he's not a Triple Crown horse? I like following the road to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, and enjoy blogs like this, but there is so much beyond the Derby and Triple Crown. Big Drama does not have to win, or even run in the Derby or Preakness, to convince me he's a quality horse. I hope his connections steer him far from the Derby starting gate. For most Derbys, about half the field never wins a race of any significance after the Run for the Roses. 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs has chewed up many a good horse.  

Yeah... me too... I am going to ignore the really big fast horse that keeps beating everyone and setting track records and go with the horse that wins either the Slippery Rock Stakes or the California Rose Derby... or maybe someone will show their stuff in the Arkansas back water Derby.... But to heck with the really Big Beautiful horse that keeps winning and running really fast... I don't like him at all he will spit the bit right after the finish line.

Redandblacksilks and Derr, listed below are the splits for the 2007, 2008 & 2009 Florida Derby.

Scat Daddy         23.06, 46.78, 1:10.82, 1:35.92, 1:49.02

Big Brown          22.76, 45.83, 1:10.08, 1:35.18, 1:48.16

Quality Road      23.49, 46.83, 1:10.66, 1:35.28, 1:47.72

The first 4 quarter of the 2008 derby were faster than those recorded in the 2009 derby. The first 2 quarter of the 2007 derby were faster than those recorded in the 2009 derby. If the 2008 winner Big Brown was challenged, it is conceivable that he would have gone below 1:48.16. It appears the track was no faster in 2009 than it was in 2008. The connections of the runner up to Big brown did not complain like Todd P that there was some track bias.

When Keyed Entry won the 2007 Hutchison Stakes in a NTR he did not complain that the Gulfstream surface was fast. When Lawyer Ron destroyed the Whitney field in a NTR: of 1:46.64, he did not complain that the Saratoga surface was too fast. In fact, if Dunkirk had won in a NTR he would have gladly accepted the accolades and there would be no complaint about track bias.

You both appear to supporters of Dunkirk but you I sure you will agree that based on the figures above your comment are driven by emotion and not facts.

I have to say that it is really, really gratifying that Jimmy has a horse of such incredible talent, that he can use his incredible skill as a trainer to try and win the most prestigious race in the country. It truly is an exciting time!

I know how disappointing it was a few years ago, for Jimmy and his crew, when they had another precocious 3 year-old horse, that they thought a great deal of, Corinthian. The horse was immensely talented but, extremely high strung - being out of Pulpit, and full of behavioral quirks. Remember Corinthian's odd stretch run in the Fountain of Youth, and subsequent disqualification from 1st to 3rd? Frank Brothers was very sympathetic. He knew exactly what Jimmy was going through at the time, having been the trainer of Pulpit. Pulpit was an extremely talented horse as a runner but, "an absolute handful" to deal with behaviorwise. You wish some times that you could separate the talent from the behavior but, unfortunately, (unless they're on drugs, and Jimmy has never used any on his horses) you can't. One should note though that Jimmy and his crew never gave up working with Corinthian and helped him mature, mature enough to win the Metropolitan Mile and the Breeders Cup Mile. So, it is especially pleasing, certainly for me, to see that Jimmy has in Quality Road, "the total package." I tried to share with others those aspects, in previous posts on these blogs. I pointed out Quality Road's sheer size( 17 hands, can you say Foregoesque?), his matter-of-fact raw talent, his high degree of intelligence and maturity, or as Richard Migliore has commented, "Things that would bother most horses, he'll just stare at in a quizzical way, and then just drop his head" and go on about his business. Richard, who I pointed out, was getting on Jimmy's horses last summer, commented on the 4 things that make this horse exceptional, and the really, really good horses have. One was the utter ease at which this horse runs, "these types of horses go a lot faster than you think they are going."

For a number of years Johnnie V. rode for "the enemy" (Pletcher) virtually exclusively. Jimmy really never used Johnnie V. on his horses because of the potential problem of a riding conflict if Pletcher had a horse in the race, too. And there was a high probability of that, as Jimmy maintains a medium size barn at Belmont, about 40 horses, mostly allowance and stakes level types. The point I am getting at is, only in the last 6 years has Jimmy started to use Johnnie V. And now, I will ask you a question. Do you know what the overall win percentage is on the Jimmy Jerkens/Johnnie V. horses? I'll tell you, if you don't know. It's a pretty impressive 39%.

I've pointed out that, the running style that Quality Road has, has no real drawback or weakness, none, ninguno, zip, zilch, nada. I ran track, too, LDP. This is not to say that unplanned for things can't happen during the running of races. They can and do happen. And in a 20 horse field, they certainly can happen. I've alluded to how talented Quality Road was. Some of you believe because you've seen it too, and watched it. Some of you have not seen enough. Some of you are not experienced enough to even know what you have just seen. And then, there are those, who just for the sake of disagreement and absolutely nothing more, will say and think and postulate the opposite, of what you think. Everyone, I'm sure knows who they are. That's horseracing, and everyone has an opinion, including me. This is a great time for racing, leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I am absolutely ecstatic, especially for Jimmy and his crew! I used to have a horse with Jimmy. I know how good a trainer he is, firsthand. His devotion, insight and care with his horses, I can attest to. It is not a surprise to me for him to stay in Florida for the next 5 weeks to oversee the care and conditioning of Quality Road, where the horse has absolutely thrived at Palm Meadows. Keep the horse happy, and he will keep you happy. I have complete faith that Quality Road will win the Derby. On looking back after his career, some will say that he was a great horse, trained by a great trainer. And you, can say that I told you so. And after the Derby, I'll tell you what happened to Quality Road during the Fountain of Youth that you didn't see, and was never acknowledged, except by those who know firsthand, what happened to him - and to still be able to run the type of race that he ran with a 113 Beyer, a 1:35.01 mile on a "slow Gulfstream track"; 4 races 3 100+ Beyers and the other he had been documented as sick, you ain't seen nothing yet, is my opinion. To slew'em all and matthew w. stay as "perfect" as the two of you are in your opinions. I always enjoy your comments. It's nice to be able to get a laugh or two, and I know it's not easy for you to come up with your material. Have fun and Good Luck.

=

Redandblacksilks and Co., please post as many negative comments as you can about Quality Road. I need the odds to rise. I only got 14-1 on my Future bet.British bookmaker Coral now offers just  5-1. I need the money. Can you help get the odds to say 10-1?

I knew QR could do 2 turns standing on his head (re: my post before FOY blog) and I always take Beyers with a grain of salt, they are wicked inconsistent (to me, a nobody)...

Too much pity party post-racing nowadays...;-)

As a first time blogger, it seems to me that either Dunkirk came in or QR came out turning for home. Am I the only one who thinks this way?

PS I never heard such whining or pity party sobbing like nowadays when Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alysheba, Tiznow, Cigar or even Curlin, lost any of their races (I'm not old enough for the earlier greats, lol)...they sucked it up and complemented the winner on winning the race that day...

One thing I wish we knew before betting...are you running the horse to win or just put in a "decent effort"?

quality road had a great proformance enought to get my attention but i dont like to tell you what the article that ntra said it says that he has it in the bank now i realize that they meant money wise the only thing that is concering me about this horse is down the strech in the one race he lost he has the tendency to give up right before the finsh line i have notices that when dunkirk was chalenging him doe=wn the dteach on saturdays race he had some in reserve and i like to see that in a horse adn i honestly think he will be quite fresh come may second becasue he getting a month off that post position for the derby might be may only question a post postion doesnt seem to bother this horse but in a 20 horse field a bad post postion or a bad start to the race you can be in real trouble i think i have to laught when he said he want worried where dunkirk was but where quality road would be on the race but of couse that same jockey wanted the horses dq'ed it didnt quite work that way because there wasnt a hole to begin with i think he just tried to make a hole  i can tell you this quality road will be my top choice may 2nd how ever i think freasion fire might give him a run for his money along with a over seas horse from dubui  but i realize that the dubui horse is a streach most genereally most foregin horses have a problem with the traveling but we will sonn find out i think that is a myth adn im sure some horse can pull it off just not sure i want to see it done this year adn im not sure a foregine horse should have a shot at the triple crown but it really isnt different than us sending our horses to dubui

Coldfacts--I agree with the Keyed Entry Race----but you better take another look at the Lawyer Ron one----------the track certainly wasn't souped up that day.

Usually you're right I've noted, not like some others---but you are off on that day-I wouldn't use that example.

Why is the race drawing such fire out? QR was impressive no matter the track condition--the real question is he has had two very hard tracks where the bounce was there---Churchill is much more like Fairgrounds or Oaklawn than Gulfstream--a great horse it doesn't matter MOST of the time. Let the best horse win!

Like the past some will be right and others wrong on the Derby or any other race----put your money down--actions speak much louder than words. Oh, I got to use this since I am in a cliche' mood---Money talks, BS walks-I sense there are a lot of mind bets out there otherwise they should be licking their chops. Can't we all be friends-to quote a now reality star?  

Note WW went down to 25-1 this week. I got 60-1 even if I think he has a bit of a shot I wouldn't take that number Jason. A small $25 bet and offered $10 more, but I just didn't talk the talk not that you or anyone else is not backing their words--but I bet many aren't.

I am forever amazed at the "foregone conclusions" people make about race horses. We all know the racing Gods sometimes have their own will and a lot of times things don't turn out exactly how us mere mortal humans planned. We have a very talented 3 year old crop right now and there are many names that deserve to be mentioned. For those of you that think Dunkirk is just a tired washed up racehorse.. I think you should think again. Watch the replay. I think you will find he ran an incredibly impressive race. Furthermore, he should be tired.. he had a lot of ground to make up and put in a game effort. These horses are just getting into the groove of racing and who knows when they will hit their peak. Dunkirk has faced some adversity's in his brief racing career. Some have not. I have seen it mentioned on this blog that the Mousse has always had things his way and won't stand a chance in the derby. Hasn't QR always had things his way? Has he been stuck 4-5 wide around a turn or has he been scrapping for position and getting knocked around? Dirt in his face? Don't get me wrong. I think QR is an impressive horse. I love his pedigree and he has class and has a solid chance in the derby. But there are some challengers out there, ready to spoil the "foregone conclusion".....

august song, are you really going to wait until QR loses the Derby to tell us that he lost a shoe during the FOY?..

For a poignant tidbit on the probable Derby winner,check-out: Hammer Time-Revenge Is Sweet For Barrets Buy-Back.(sorry Jason I owe you one)...and a hefty "ARRIBA" to one of our acquaintance Mr. Dave Showalter & Crew for their excellent job in putting a solid foundation in their charges..lol,he actually mentioned that he had a "Real Nice Stephen Got Even" he was prepping out here last year.But,in our line of duty,we tend not to say too much in order not to jinx the horse(s)..I know,crazy but true...Talk about an Intelligent horse.IWR is the Stephen Hawkins of thoroughbreds. HE IS the Real Deal.

Draynay and others,

Do you meant to tell me that you don't recognize that there was a significant track bias at Gulfstream on Florida Derby day that absolutely favored speed? Or that the track was extremely fast?  They only set three track records that day.   The fact that the early fractions were slower than in earlier years is a further indictment of Quality Road's performance. I am not a Dunkirk fan but I do believe that his performance, closing that well against the speed favoring track bias, was better than Quality Road's performance.

Also, the fractions in the KY Derby this year should be very fast, considering the number of speed horses to be entered. The track at Churchill is also deeper and tends to be cuppy. Quality Road is an early presser and the speed in the Derby will cook him.  I hope all of you bet Quality Road because it will give me much better odds on the horse I bet.  

TO:2 TIME VALLEY PLAYER

Thank you for what you said yesterday,you didn't let your opinion have any bearing and I appreciate what you did.

Gulfstream was very fast on Saturday. However, it started speeding up on Thursday and Friday, so Pletcher had plenty of time to pull Dunkirk from the race. By pointing to the track records from Phil' and Quality Road, Pletcher made it seem as if the track was souped up just for Saturday and started playing fast overnight. The times on Th and Fri suggested that the track was going to be fast come Saturday. Pletcher should have known this. He should have also recognized that Gulfstream officials typically like a speedy track for Florida Derby day, and that souped up track or not, speed has done well the entire Gulfstream meet. All of this was known BEFORE the Florida Derby.

da3hoss:

Unofortunately excuses are not a new thing. Right after last year's Breeders Cup Classic, Curlin's trainer, Steve Assmussen, commented to the ESPN reporters, in frustration, that the Classic was run like a turf race not a dirt race. Clearly, he was making an excuse because earlier in the year Curlin had demonstrated that he wasnt as good on turf as dirt. Didnt Steve know beforehand that Santa Anita's Pro-Ride plays closer to turf than dirt? Like Pletcher, Assmussen made it seem like the track surface had changed overnight and that it was some big "revelation" that it played like turf.

When Cigar finally lost in the 96' Pacific Classic, most of the blame was placed on Jerry Bailey for having put Cigar in a speed duel with the excellent horse, Siphon, running fractions of 109 and 133. Then, when Cigar's late run came up just a neck short to Skip Away in the 96' Jockey Club Gold Cup, people blamed Bailey for putting Cigar too far off of Skip Away's early pace. Bailey was also given some heat for taking Cigar so wide when 3rd in the 96 BC Classic. By the end of the year, however, it had become clear that Cigar just wasnt the same horse he had been during that 16 race win streak and that Bailey had been criticized too harshly, at least for the JCGC and BC Classic.

Talk about excuses, what about Easy Goer. Easy Goer was a great horse, and was the horse that drew me into this sport, but his apologists would have you believe that he never legitimately lost a race. In the BC Juvenille and Kentucky Derby it was the off-track, in the Preakness and Breeders Cup Classic it was Pat Day...  

Coldfacts:

According to the Beyers, the track this past Saturday was faster than it was for the 07' and 08' Florida Derby.

Scat Daddy:  1:49,  98 Beyer

Big Brown:  1:48, 106 Beyer

Quality Road: 1:47 and 3, 103 Beyer

Using the Beyers as a reference, had Big Brown run this past Saturday he would have finished about 2 lengths ahead of Quality Road (3 Beyer points faster). So, his time would have been 1:47 and 1. Had Scat Daddy run on the Gulfstream track Saturday, his 98 Beyer would have put him 3 lengths behind Quality Road. So, Scat Daddy would have run a 1:48 and 1.  The track was playing the same for the 07' and 08' Florida Derbys. The track Saturday was playing 4/5th of a second faster than in 07' and 08' (Compare Big Brown's projected time for this past Saturday, 147 and 1, to his actual final time of 148 = 4/5ths of a second; same for Scat Daddy  148 and 1 to 149). This is all dependent on whether one takes Beyers at face value.

Interestingly, Holy Bull ran the same times as Quality Road did, 1:47 and 3 when he won the Florida Derby by about 6 lengths in 1994. His Beyer?  A 115. Thus, Gulfstream this past Saturday was about 7 lengths (12 Beyer points) faster than it was for the 94' Florida Derby (had Holy Bull run this past Saturday, his final time would have been 146 and 1!). Holy Bull's fractions in that 94' Florida Derby were 46 flat, 110 flat, and 134 and 4.  And the track was 7 lengths slower that day!

The fact that the track was 4-7 lengths faster this past Saturday than in 08', 07' and 94', but the half and 6 furlong splits were all about the same, suggests the early pace in this year's Florida Derby was not particularly fast. Given the track was faster this Saturday than those 3 other days, the pace for this year's Florida Derby should have been faster as well. While the quarter, half, and 6 furlong splits in Quality Road's Florida Derby are solid, they pale in comparison to the fractions Holy Bull put up on a track 7 lengths slower.

Why does this matter? Well, if the pace for the Florida Derby was not that fast (given just how fast the track was), Dunkirk did well to close as much ground as j

he did and Quality Road SHOULD have held on; had he not, he would not look good for the Kentucky Derby.

Again, all of this final time/ fractional comparisons assume Beyers are accurate. Personally, I do not think the track was as fast Saturday as the Beyer crew does, and thought Quality Road's Beyer would be over 107. And no matter how fast the track was, the splits of the Florida Derby were legit, and Quality Road demonstrated alot of talent to be able to accelerate on command and turn back Dunkirk's charge. In any event, Quality Road has already demonstrated the ability to run a monster Beyer (113).

Gunbow - No doubt Steve A was frustrated.  But your comment ignores the fact that Curlin & Co. were "dragged" into the BCC kicking and screaming (about the synthetic surface). . .

WOW - (126) posts and only (1) about the race across the pond. I know this is suppose to be about the day after the FL. Derby. It also the day after the Dubai prep. As soon as everyone saw that the previous U.S. favorites(Vineyard Haven, Midshipman) fell out of favor. You all totally discounted the race. BEWARE at your own peril, Desert Party has been in the back of my mind for a long time. I have allready posted my love for OF, and have made Pool#1 wagers to back it up. But, after Desert Party destroyed Vineyard Haven it got me re-thinking the Sheiks real situation. Ask yourself, who was the 1st horse they purchased. Who were (2) of the best 2yo horses in training at the time of the 2nd and 3rd purchases. There is also one little bit of information that one of the Derby's biggest writer's made mention of after Saturday's running in Dubai(Find it yourself). Ask yourself again, did he need to go all out to win the Dubai Prep. I'll add (2) more little tidbits - He's listed @ 30/1 for Pool#3 and his daddy won the Stephen Foster @ where? - CHURCHILL DOWNS - Hop Aboard.

Redandblacksilks.... what I admit to is the track has been fast ALL MEET LONG. You saw 2 very very good horses get pushed to set track records.  THE HORSES SET THE RECORDS not the track.  Big Drama and Quality Road are big time horses that showed up and put in amazing performances... it was the horses ... the horses ... the horses !!!

Kat:

You are absolutely correct. I do think Assmussen and Jess Jackson were very worried that the Pro-Ride would play like turf and disadvantage Curlin. I think alot of Assmussen's frustration after the races wasn't shock, like I implied in my earlier email. It was more frustration, having debated for so long whether to run Curlin in the race, and having known that track was probably going to play like that. It was almost as if when Assmussen said "it was a truf race, not a dirt race", he really wanted to say- "I knew it, I knew it. I thought it would be more like turf , and it is. We shouldnt have run, but we had no choice". You are correct that the public pressure on Jess Jackson and Assmusen to run was intense, and both were sporting enough to take a chance. I was probably too harsh on Assmusen in that earlier post. Pletcher, had options other than the Florida Derby for Dunkirk, and he knew what Gulfstream was going to be like. For Jackson and Assmusen, the BC Classic was the big race.

FF is going straight to the Derby?? Well.. now it is time to start tossing horses and right now I am tossing FF and Old Fashioned. You want them you can have them.  I am tossing them.  Quality Road is looking better all the time.  Imperial Council better freak in the Wood or I am writing Quality Road in stone.  Training FF up to the Derby... nuts, crazy, no chance at all of winning...none. The horse all year has never run 6 furlongs under 1:13.5 and he is Derby ready....lol...lol....

I would like to hear Pletcher's excuses for his 20+ other losses in the Kentucky Derby.  Perhaps he should just stay away from both Florida and Kentucky.  

Dray,

Gulfstream was very fast on Saturday, and much faster than it had been previously during the meet. However, Saturday was not the first day the track started producing quicker than normal times. It started earlier last week, with some fast times on Thursday and Friday. The 1:49

9 furlong time for Justwhistledixie on Friday should have tipped people off, including Todd Pletcher, that the track was going to be fast on Saturday.

Dray, I do get your point, however. By saying the track was fast I do not mean to imply that Quality Road (and Dunkirk) and Big Drama (This Ones For Phil) did not run huge races. Those 4 horses, and Quality Road and Big Drama in particular, ran big, big races and deserve much respect for the track records. Fast track or not, they went out and absolutely brought it!

Hey Dray... What about IWR???

Gee I have actually had horses in my past and wouldn't second guess someone as successful as Jones. I actually did fairly well % wise although I had cheapies. As to the Pletcher knocking--- about a million others only wish they could train as well and be in the position to race 1 in the Derby let alone a few that had every right to be there, whether they won or not. (Didn't he start with only 4 horses when he left Lucas and people in the game give him millions of dollars of horseflesh every year-gee I wonder why-lets sent them to the bloggers that know more)It is a great accomplishment. You probably would knock a person that went to China Olympics and didn't get a gold metal instead of appreciating the wonderful hard earned achievement and the dedication it took to get there.

I don't cheer for Pletcher but not to respect him or Jones-the talent they have---please!

Its very obvious who on this blog who actually was ever in the game, and the armchair quarterbacks.

Again, although this will never happen, it would be fun to bring a filly and a colt in front of the Armchair QB's and ask them which was which without lifting the tail.

We'll finally be able to see how the main track @ Aquaduct is playing.

I can't believe they're still keeping Giant Oak in the TC Trail..he's too damn slow.

TO:GUNBOW

Good point regarding Cigar. He's my fav. racehorse and I drive the five hrs to visit him as often as possible,but after racing the schedule he did for two years he wasn't quite what he had been.

DRAYNAY:  Let me come to Friesan Fire's defence.  First, the horse is a stalker and with this kind of runner they often have much more in the tank than meets the eye because they simply track the fractions of the front runner(s).  The way that this horse changes gear when roused suggests that he is running on a "turbo engine" so no one, including the trainer knows how good he really is. It is very likely that he can produce the same turn of foot if stalking a 1:10 six furlongs split front runner.  We just don't know yet and I wouldn't be foolish enough to insist that he can't when in fact he has given no such indication.  secondly, he is bred to stay forever therefore going a distance of ground beyond 1 1/16 mile is a non-issue.  Larry Jones who certainly knows about getting his 3YOs to be "cherry ripe" on Derby Day has said that Friesan Fire is getting better and wants to be #1 in his barn (he probably is by now), therefore I would advise you to think again before "throwing out" this dude.

Our handicapping sensation/flash-in-the-pan SLEW.em.ALL has told us that this Friesan Fire dude can boogie, and you know what, I believe him.  Mark you, he'll have to do more than "boogie" to win the Kentucky Derby but he's live and could redeem his sire AP Indy.

SLEW:  Quality Road threatens to unmask you as a flash-in-the-pan handicapper but you have 5 weeks to escape your predicament and I doubt that I Want Revenge will help you.    

I had a feeling no one of significance was showing-up to challenge The Cali Reaper,that is I Want Revenge.Everyone else is running for 2nd money & Gr.I placing.

I've always respected Shug,but his assertion that "IWR was alone in the front,so his heart got real big",is misguided and incorrect.We all know The 'Reaper pressured Mr.F' in the early going,cruised-up along side of him on the far turn then turned on the after-burners while winning handily.

So,Mullins says IWR is better now than what he was going into the Gotham..Hello!Lights Out!...I Want Revenge in a Romp!..He's taking more Sad Souls with him like he did with Mr.F',Haynesfield & the rest of the Gotham also rans.IC has no shot in the Wood Memorial.They only way IWR gets beat is if all that coast-to-coast criss-crossing takes it's toll on him...No Worries!

Well Pioneerof the Nile took note of the error of Todd's way and is bringing a bunny to his party.  (I knew Zayat could dig one up...;)

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

Let's see how you will react this time when IP,(not IC) wins the Wood! I just wanna hear you once admit you're wrong about something,lol.

Don't even get me started on Kent D.  I'll never forgive him for pulling up Big Brown and tarnishing his run for the Triple Crown.  And it seems he often has problems with horses, if I had a racehorse Kent wouldn't come within a hundred yards of him.  The attempt at a DQ was petty.  But on another note - this is really an exciting field of Derby horses shaping up.  Quality Road is impressive (noticed the chest!)But Dunkirk also has serious talent; even though he did look exhausted after the FL Derby.  I am sentimentally attached to Larry Jones' horses and love to watch The Pamplemouse.  Win Willy ran an exciting race; I love to see them come from behind like that and he has a really nice pedigree.  There is something to be said for most all these contenders.  And, just for the record, every horse that runs in the Derby has a chance to win.  Remember Giacamo...

My, my.  Once again, Jason, you have a great blog going.

I have been watching the derby preps and trying to decide on a horse.  I was very impressed with Quality Road.  He is magnificent!  He's a huge, muscular individual and so very impressive in his win.

I love his breeding too.  I also like Frisan Fire and Chocolate Candy and I don't think Dunkirk is one to throw out.  There are several horses who could take the derby.  In the last 20 years or so, it's been like a crap shoot anyway.  Wasn't Point Given a shoo-in for the Derby?  Or even the TC?

He didn't even come close in the Derby.  Who bet on Li'l ET?  Did anyone have Grindstone?  I sure didn't think Thundergulch would do it and didn't have a cent on Monarchos.  Now Big Brown was supposed to win and he did.  Really no surpries there. He was supposed to win the TC and didn't.

No surprise there because modern horses just can't do it it would seem.

I read all the posts here and so many have Quality Road as the winner, no doubt!  The Derby is just a whole different race.  There is no harder race to win than the Derby but sometimes a horse will win it and doesn't seem to win anything else.

Everyone here has their opinion but the last two horses I was sure of for the Derby were Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones.  I had not one doubt and I was right.  This year....who knows?  I just don't think there is a clear cut winner.  I think there's going to b a big surprise winner this year.  Could be or it could be Quality Road or IWF. Wonder what the weather will be like, yet another factor.  I do know that horses who are calm and don't get bothered much are more likely to win but even that isn't always true.

Jason, I really think you have the best handle on it of all.  I truly think you are a marvelous handicapper and I know there are others on this blog as well. I'm not a great handicapper but I love the sport and the animals and that's enough for me.  I hope you have a blog the day after the Derby!

In 1989 Lukas blamed the 2.9 million dollar wonder horse Houston's loss in the Santa Anita Derby on dehydration. (Keep in mind that 2.9 in 1989 is like 6 million current). He drank some water and lost again 4 weeks later to the same horse...Sunday Silence.    

Thanks Monica. I appreciate you and everyone else weighing in. Most people, with the exception of Draynay, know what they're talking about on here. lol.

I'll have a weekend preview on Thursday.

Draynay ALLRIGHT ALLREADY---They pretty grey filly will win the Der---I mean Imperial Council is a shoe in to win the Der---No, I mean Quality Road will win the Derby/Horse of Year/is better than Secretariat---allright!

Relva: What the hell is IP?.(Imperial Perial?)..I believe it's IC for (Imperial Council).ABC-123 you dork. lol

IWR is just too damn explosive for his Wood' rivals.IC will get his @$$ kicked again.Easy pickings..Plus, The Buddha Master is never wrong.  :)

Oh, something I forgot - a  huge congratulations to Well Armed and Aaron Gryder.  It was really great watching him on Jockeys.  He and Well Armed are a wonderful team.  Well done!

How can ANYONE take FF seriously when he has never gone past 1 1/16th ???  Betting on that horse will be a complete waste of money. The winner of the Wood will be Imperial Council and the winner of the Derby will be Quality Road.  Are there other good horses in the race ...yes... are there any as good as Quality Road....no. I still have not forgiven Larry Jones for running Hard Spun at distances beyond his ability.  Curlin couldn't beat Hard Spun at a mile if his life depended on it but I digress. Training a horse 7 weeks out is just plain silly and gives the horse no real shot of winning.  Like it or not Quality Road is it folks...

Mike Relva,

I have been a fan of the sport since 1989, and I rank Cigar as the best horse of the period. On one given day, sure, a number of horses could have beaten him. However, Cigar ran EVERYWHERE, carried weight, won on fast and slow tracks, won on the pace or off it, overcame track biases, and beat the very best horses over a two year span. Cigar brought it every time. He ran quick times and his Beyers were consistently between 114 and 121. Over a 20 race span, Cigar NEVER ran a Beyer under 104, and ran a Beyer over 111 in 18 of those 20 races! In his final 17 starts, Cigar NEVER ran a Beyer under 111. Last year, Curlin's BEST Beyer was 112.

Over the last 20 years, the only horses to show such talent/speed over a comparable period was Skip Away and Easy Goer. Horses like Ghostzapper, Gentlemen, and Formal Gold ran some very fast races, but they didn't do it over a long span of races. There have been alot of wonderful horses over the last two decades, I just think Cigar is at the top.

BUNNY ALERT>>>> BUNNY ALERT.... Z Day is running in the Santa Anita to run the Pamplemousse into the ground and Z Day is fast.... very very fast ask Imperial Council how fast.... Since the bunny is in the race I will pick Mr. Hot Stuff for the upset with Pioneer of the Nile finishing the exacta.

I like the Santa Anita to Wood angle.  It has worked in the past.  All systems go for IWR. This horse has run monster west coast races and NEVER bounced.  The Pamplemousse drew the 10 slot.  His ride may be over.  Like Chocolate Candy down on the rail.  He will be chasing down POTN late.  Chocolate Candy to win the Santa Anita Derby.  

I can hardly wait for the lead horses in the Derby to run faster than 1:09.40 for the first 6 furlongs and 1:35 for the mile, so Quality Road and Johnnie V. can cruise on up, the last quarter of a mile and draw off. Say, wait a minute. Didn't he do that in the Fountain of Youth on a decidedly slow Gulfstream racetrace that day, and just sat behind a very slow horse by the name of This Ones For Phil, who he was very lucky to just beat him by over 10 lengths, drawing out? Hmmm, he bounced in the Florida Derby from that earlier effort, and was probably just very lucky that Pletcher and McPeek, and their horses were in a giving mood. Imagine if, they had really tried to win, how bad they could have made Quality Road look? The Ragozin people are going to be all over Quality Road for bouncing in the Florida Derby and being perfectly set up to exceed his Fountain of Youth performance. Yikes!!!

slew'em all, can't you say something really, really good about another horse but, you need to really sound convincing, like you really, really know what you are talking about, so Quality Road's odds can go up. Remember, you need to sound convincing. That is the key. Don't say anything stupid, because people won't believe you. Thanks, for your help, pal.

P.S. - For your help, I'll tell you after the Derby what happened to Quality Road during the Fountain of Youth race.

slew 'em...lemme get this straight...Shug is all wet in his hopes that his charge will improve, but Mullins is rite because he has said his guy will improve?...please help me understand...if you like Iwanna great, but let's not go into the "world of Freud"![and for the record Shug is breathing easier that you respect him, and sez he will give you 3 shots a side]

Jason

I HOPE you are looking to get even on Giant Oak---NOW is the time--or never!

Even I, who would definitely not be considered as his biggest fan will be using him in all positions in Chicago. I am suspect of Musket Man and feel he has to best the Pletchers. He was good enough to run a very well beaten forth in a tough prep. If he has any talent he can win.

This is his chance

Slew---no Derby picture ---this is a big pot with a suspect field--IF "I" owned him he would be in there--The Derby?-Why break a horses spirit when there is soooooooooo much money out there and Graded Status for 3 yr olds.

ANYONE that is solid ---right now--on his Derby pick without the benefit of "all the preps" doesn't gamble. (or loses regularly-bet #3 all the time and you be right occasionally)  Is "I told you so" or "I picked him first" going to make you a star or put money in your pocket? Just because I picked FF at the start of the year and still like him today doesn't mean I will invest on him Derby day--although the chances are good. I still have my WW to hopefully cash on in the AR Derby (if he wins the Derby I already am in good shape--still not in my top 5 but I liked the odds) and there are some nice betting OP's--I think Josie Carroll's old horse may run well for Dutrow in the Bluegrass.

I have a short story--I have had (owned) both thoroughbreds and harness horses. One day while on vacation in FL one of my harness horses was racing at Woodbine-the driver in his last race said he was sick he got him in so much trouble said he would jog next time-bet your money -I am.

Next time arrived but I was in FL on vacation now, so I went to Pompano and bet $500---he had every chance in the stretch but couldn't go by the leader and got beat about by a head---The man next to me watching the same TV was screaming stiff-he didn't try to go by-- telling the other 5 or 6 of us around the TV the same--finally I had had enough and informed him I owned the horse and showed him my bets.

He said my driver stiffed the horse you just don't know it and continued to lecture me.

Sometimes no matter what the situation and facts--some people are always right.

As cocky of an A-H I can be I am smart enough to know there are smarter people than me. As a gambler I know even with pocket queens and a queen on the river if two aces or kings also show I am not a cinch. You do not go all in with a hand that could lose until all cards show unless you are bluffing. As for Derby picks I will guarantee  you can't make everyone fold.

nickie: I never said IC won't improve off the Gotham,he should.But to think he'll make up the 8 1/2 lenghts on IWR is wishful thinking.Even Shug's camp said,if IWR runs the same race,it's over.Simple!...unless IWR takes a major step-back,he should win decisively.Judging by the way he's been training,that's not likely to happen.

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

You will eat your woods after the Wood is done!

TO: GUNBOW

I agree with you totally!

August Song: I have a feeling you'll be singing the Stormy May Blues after the Ky Derby is over with.Seems like you have it all figured out already.We'll see.

Relva: nothing is for sure,but in this case: IWR is the winner.

Mark these words.... at 150K he'll be the last in, but he'll clearly be the first under the wire....DUNKIRK!

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Sarah

http://adoptpet.info