I actually got more respect for POTN in this race, he's a good colt...I have been on the CC bandwagon for a looong time, now, I thought he ran super against steady fractions and a wide trip around the corner and I still think he's going to like the dirt and distance...he's a little machine and that can go a long way in the big races...especially the Belmont...I still think he's a bit green, if he can keep those big closing strides steady..!

Well, shoot. QR popped a quarter crack in the FD and they're currently dealing with it. Don't like the sound of that situation at all.

What is your opinion if Rachel Alexandra's connections give her a shot at the Kentucky Derby ?, If she was entered right now, Would she make your top 12?, I know she is being pointed to the Kentucky Oaks on May 1, but I would like to she her given a shot against the males....Was wondering what you thought?.....

((Terrible the "The Mousse" is injured, Hope he heals safe and sound, He was one of my favorites))

My Top Three(In no particular order!)

1. Friesan Fire

2. I Want Revenge

3. Win Willy

* Rachel Alexandra would be in top three if entered....

Place Pioneer much lower and add Dunkirk to your list and I'd say your analysis is pretty good. I can not bet on a horse who hasn't run on the real stuff yet, especially when he is running against a half dozen or so really good colts that have excelled on dirt. Wait till he gets the dirt in the face for the first time.  

Great weekend.  I think the Derby comes down to Quality Road, IWR, and Friesan Fire with Regal Ranson, Win Willy, Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk deserving consideration for the exotics.  To me, it's hard not to like Quality Road best (that is if he gets over his quarter crack) in the Derby.

I also think Musket Man is worthey of consideration for exotics.  I also would love to see Old Fashioned rebound next week but I think he won't get the distance and can't carry his speed.

The Chalk taste pretty Good last Saturday. I guess you assumming Dunkirk isn't going which looks to be the case. Agree about POTN and Musket Man, two tough horses who refuse to lose. FF is a Fair Grounds Wonder Horse and Old Fashioned isn't going to get the distance, toss them. JOJO had his chance already and blew it. Where's Win Willy?

Imperial Council did have an excuse. He was spooked and fell on his back on the way to the paddock. It happened near the tunnel so none of us saw it. The vets cleared him to race and Prado said that he sent him to the lead after he saw IWR break poorly, he was running well the first mile but at the 1/16 pole he spit the bit. My 200 exacta box IWR/I/C went up in smoke and I had no idea what had happened. I would have changed my bet had i known . Did anyone hear talk about this incident prior to the race? This is one tough game.

I am glad to see you kept Terrain in the mix. Chocolate Candy, Terrain and I Want Revenge will be an interesting mix for Quality Road.

Quite possibly the biggest winner of the Saturday chalkfest:  Dunkirk.  Don't you think he'll likely get a spot with Pamp out even though Giant Oak moved up.  Isn't Mafaaz a possible non-starter @ CD if he gets ripped @ Keeneland?  Might Pletcher consider not starting the useless Bittel Road (with ownership consent) to get Dunkirk in also?  Should get interesting.

Funny thing is.... Rachel Alexandra would be first or second on this list for many if she were Triple Crown nominated.  Only Quality Road would be favored over her.  If Quality Road can't run the connections for Rachel would be crazy not to run her in the Derby.

OH OH, Quality Road has Quarter Crack

Please show a link for the Quality Road Quarter Crack.

This is how rumors get started you know.

IWR ran a great race, but I need to start eliminating horse for my pick and my question is who did he beat?

If Charitable Man wins the Bluegrass Sat he has to be on the list.

Good luck to us all.

Rachel and IWR looked awesome this weekend. I wish Rachel had been entered in the AR Derby instead of the Fantasy, but oh well!  I'll be interested to see how the graded earnings list looks after this upcoming weekend.

Jason, I hope you continue to leave Win Willy out of your top ten. I have watched all his races and there is nothing to dislike about this horse. I hope for a huge price May 2. I just hope he doesn't look too good this Sat.

My top 5

I Want Revenge

POTN

Freisan Fire

Win Willy

Choc. Candy

Quality Road would be number two if not for the quarter crack. Any hiccup this close to the race means alot.

Oh no.. First the Mousse, and now possibly Quality Road??! My favorites are getting smaller...

Here are my five:

1) Quality Road

2) FF

3) I Want Revenge

4) Old Fashioned

5) Dunkirk/Rachel (if they go in, are nominated. Mousse was in this spot)

I wish RA was in the Derby running...she, QR and CC have been my faves, with Larry Jones anything as sentimental...my hubby loves IWR & Musket man, if you knew him you'd understand why!...

Rachel

Did Talamo ever uncock his stick on I Want Revenge?

    I Want Revenge deserves to be the Derby favorite.  I have much respect for Quality Road as he is a very nice colt, but after the performance IWR put in on Saturday, it will be tough to bet against him.  He proved he can handle shipping back and forth and now he gets to go straight to Churchill and get use to his surroundings.  All the trouble he had and he still wins that race & with Talamo not even having to go to the whip down the stretch.  The horse has guts as I said that before the Wood and he just proved me right (doesn't happen often so I have to say something about it).  I can't wait to see how he trains over the track at Churchill.  If he trains well, I'm all in.  If Dunkirk gets in and I think he will, box him up with IWR and you have a real nice shot at hitting the Derby exacta.  I'd run QR, Terrain, Chocolate Candy, WSB, POTN & Friesan Fire for 3rd.

    Speaking of Dunkirk, I think he will get in the Derby.  I really can't see anyone else jumping him in the earnings with the exception of Patena who I think will run a monster race Saturday and win the Bluegrass.  There will be a few more defections above him besides The Pamplemousse so I'd say he's in.  I can't see the connections of Bittel Road running him in the Derby.  I'd say he will point to a race like the Crown Royal Turf on Oaks day.  Put him back on his preferred surface and in an easier spot.  It's still a graded race so no shame in that.  Dunkirk may only have 3 starts, but don't most people dislike that because of "seasoning".  To that I would say this colt has earned as much seasoning out of his 1st 3 races as many horses do out of their 1st 5 or 6 starts so I don't think experience will be a question with him.  It's shaping up to be a nice Derby this year, much better than last year.

    Finally, to Good Karma, I think your question of who has IWR beaten is somewhat valid, but then again, who have most of these horses beaten at this stage?  That's the beauty of handicapping the Derby.  With some many preps and some many routes to Louisville, most of the horses stay apart until the 1st Saturday in May.  Besides, in the case of IWR, I don't think you look so much at who he has beaten in his last 2 as much as you look at how he did it.  There were some decent colts, not great, in the races he won, but he just did it so impressively that it would be hard to throw him out.  If people just went off of who a horse has beaten, then not many people would have had Big Brown, Barbaro, etc.  Just my opinion for what it's worth.  Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Hold Me Back continues to be ignored.  What a professional, sustained bid he made in the Lane's End and what a LIVE longshot he seems to be come May.  Love the pedigree, and if he trains well on CD dirt he will be a tough out.

QR is fine and still deserves to be on top. IWR will be right there. Dont sleep on Win Willy yeah he is a canterbury horse but this horse has extreme closing speed, I dont think he can win but he should be put into tri's and exactas, this is a tough year to try and  hit an exacta or trifecta, I think the odds will be all over the place kind of like when Barbaro went off at 6-1.

Quality Road injury is said to be "not serious". Same hoof specialist that took care of Big Brown.Says not as bad as Big Brown had. Says that it should be no problem. Good news, I hope.

The cool thing is that for the first time in many years there are a whole group of colts who are on a roll going into the Derby.  Freisan Fire, Pioneer Of the Nile, I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and Musket Man are all on winning streaks.  Should be a very exciting race.  FF has been my top pick all spring, but the main point in his favor was his steady racing.  The 7 week layoff has really thrown up question marks to me.  It will be interesting if IWR wins will it finally mean a little love for Stephen Got Even.  Amazing that his sons get way more mares than he does.

Re Dunkirk, actually the Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, and Lexington could all vault horses past him in earnings.  For example, that Sky Mesa colt who won at Tampa (can't remember his name, General something) passes him up if he just hits the board at Keeneland.  The second place horse at Oaklawn and the winner of the Lexington should jump past, too.  It will be hard to get in with only $150K, but I say "so what?".  If they wanted him in, they should have figured out a way to get a second graded stakes start.

Fantastic race by Revenge,PON looked good but will he like the dirt? Shaping up as a good Derby witha lot of possible winners but right now Revenge looks like a solid choice along with QR, will they run Rachel?. Still a wide open race which will make it a tough race to handicap. Less then 4 weeks to the big dance.

You guys need to stop with this Pioneer Of the Nile garbage. Yes hes a good horse but his beyer numbers are not good enough close enough to suggest he should be considerd to win the derby.

Let me remind all of you once again since they started running the prep races over synthetic that their has been only one horse that has hit the board in the derby.

That was Hard Spun who finished 2nd  & I will remind you he was also lone speed in the derby.

The winner of the derby is a horse that has been running on dirt for his preps. IWR was 1-6 on synthetic surfaces and is now 2-0 on dirt. QR would run POTN off his feet.  

Hey POTN you may be the best out west but you will not be able to hang with the East Coast horses. So come out here for the derby and finish mid pack and then you can go back home and concentrate on the 3yr races in California and beat on weaker competition like you have been doing.

Bottom line is that Pioneer of the Nile looks good when you watch him but he is not as good as he appears. Gomez would be a fool not to take the call on Dunkirk if he is able to get in the race.

I could just scream... really someone is going to have to explain to me what IWR has done to deserve being in someones top 3.  He beat Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council... so what?  Since when does competition not matter? Isn't this the same horse that couldn't beat Pioneer of the Nile ? I hope everyone bets a lot of money on IWR and his 19 year old jockey because come Derby Day the only thing that ticket will be good for is a reminder of how wrong you were on Derby Day.

Curlin;

I agree regarding IWR has looked like a Superstar.

QR beat the now horse in Dunkirk regardless of the track he pulled away from him. As well as This on for Phil.

Win Willy is undefeated on the dirt if he wins the Arkansas Derby he is in my exotic pool.

I am still very curious regarding Chartible Man. If he wins this weekend coming of that layoff you have to give him respect.

God I love this game.

Depending on the final field, I would expect General Quarters to bypass Dunkirk in earnings.  However, you now have Pamplemousse, Sq Eddie, Stardom Bound, Big Drama, and quite possibly Bittell Rd. and Mafaaz, who may not start.  Most likely there will be another one or two defections prior to May 2 (injuries, poor training, whatever). There are still 2 big purses to go, but Old Fashioned will at worst case finish in the money at Oaklawn. If you make it a given that Jojo and Patena get in with GQ, I still think 150k gets it done this year.

Amazing, That is all I can say about "I Want Revenge", What a Race:

www.youtube.com/watch

I Want Revenge is half-Horse,half-Amazing.Whomever is still doubting his 2 devastating performances @ Aquaduct are blind to the fact that ordinary horses just don't do what he does.He's unshakable and a whole new Animal on dirt,obviously.The fractions can be crawling or swift,but one thing is for sure: He's all business down the stretch,a Ruthless Renegade who takes no prisoners.A Beast I tell ya'.The Complete Package like some have called him.Secretariat-like if I say-so myself..don't laugh,just watch.You bet I'm excited and some might say over-zealous,but for good reasons.The way he pressured,man-handled then scooted-away from Mr.Fantasy in the Gotham,and how bad of a trip he had in the Wood and still pulled-away without feeling the whip on that slow,heavy drying-out track speaks volumes about his greatness.

Notice that some are still questioning POTN's chances of taking to the dirt,disliking the kick-back,too slow(beyers)..etc,etc. All hog-wash.That's what they said about IWR and look what he's proven on the dirt.No reason to think otherwise,since his pedigree is strictly geared towards dirt surfaces anyways.

QR's quarter-crack is a non-issue like the Vet said,so don't start making excuses until if&when it becomes a problem.The withdrawal of The Pamps' might aid his chances @ Churchill,but don't be fooled into thinking that he'll have an easy lone-speed trip,remember OF is still out there waiting,and he's no Thisonesforphil or Capt.Candyman Can,that's for sure.Plus,how will QR react to adversity he isn't accustomed to in contrast to his "perfect trips" @ GP?..IWR has been there,done that already,and passed the test with flying colors.

Jason,

You're list seems very fair. Good points on all of your contenders. Too bad about Quality Road. On paper, he looks well. Hopefully its not as bad as Ian McKinley thinks it is. But any kind of minor issue a horse has prior to running in the derby is just bad a sign of things to come.

Isn't funny how every horse Draynay seems to tout or jump on their respective band wagon seems to either get injured or perform terribly on the TC trail? lol. Hey Dray, do us all a favor un jump off his wagon so that his quarter crack can heal! lol.

Anyway, I'm with you Jason. Pioneer of the Nile has been on top of my respective top 10 list for awhile now. He's tough to ignore by his consistency, but as a gambler, its tough to just key on him or place a win bet based on his speed figures alone. I guess I just have to tell myself that its based upon the lack of experience with the synthetic surfaces that these horses get lower than average speed figures as they would receive at a normal dirt track. And kudos to I Want Revenge as well. What a race he ran in the Wood. And Dray, he isn't the East Coast horse, he belongs to us in the West.

Greg J

  Can't say much for your Derby picks, as you were 0 for 4 last Sat. on your predictions.

IWR and QR are my top two. POTN remains to be seen on dirt. If he wins the Derby, first time on dirt, that would be a monster win. I would love to see Rachel Alexandra run with the boys. She would spice the Derby up and I think she would have a real chance at winning. Does anyone have any thoughts about Stardom Bound's loss?

I don't think there is a horse in the field that can stay with Quality Road except I Want Revenge.

If they burn each other out Win Willy or Larry Jones horse Freisan Fire could be there. The class of the race Pioneer of the Nile could take it all. We will have to just wait and see, which is why the Derby is so much fun.

I heard about Quality Road's quarter crack early this morning. Jimmy is concerned, and anxious but, that is perfectly normal for him, if a situation is not perfect. It would be a shame if Quality Road misses the Derby but, I also know that, if Quality Road is not ready and able, he will not run him. The horse always comes first. And besides, there is plenty of time to get ready for the Belmont. We will see......

I will say again, I Want Revenge's Wood is overrated. If you weren't there, and outside then, you don't know. What hasn't been mentioned was the fierce wind that the horses ran into going into the first turn. The lead horses ran a fast opening half, considering the conditions. Compare that to the much slower half of the Excelsior. Breaking extremely slow, I Want Revenge had the absolute perfect trip, being on the inside, drafting in behind a bunch of underrated horses who had spent themselves early, including Imperial Council, who had flipped on his back in the paddock before the race. I have witnessed many, many times, horses that happen to walk out of the gate and spot the field 6 - 8 lengths, when there are significant climatic conditions, with a moderately fast pace being maintained, relative to the conditions in the air and on the track, actually wind up being in the proverbial "catbird seat" when everyone is spent from their efforts and the conditions. I Want Revenge didn't beat much, and created the illusion that he did something special, because he didn't. I don't want you believers scratching your heads, wondering what happened to him in the Derby, and why he didn't perform.

Rocker,

He beat IWR twice. If Baffert was concerned about him handling the surface he would've shipped him out. I think he knows what he's doing.

Pioneer of the Nile will not finish in the top ten in the Ky Derby, and Baffert knows it. Anyone who pays attention knows when Bob is loaded and his poker face says he suspects this horse won't like dirt. He is a turf horse head to toe and I'm shocked nobody seems to notice. Rachel, Dunkirk, QR, IWR and Choc.Candy. Are major contenders. I can't see anyone else winning the derby.  The filly could really run this group off their feet if she's given a shot.

Wow--is it just me,or does anybody else think august song's assertion that IWR's Wood was "overrated" and he had "the absolutel perfect trip" is utterly Insane?..Really?..were you watching the Wood or a replay of the Fla Derby?..Jerkens even said that IWR's race was special."Catbird seat" applies to QR's races @ GP.I'm betting he won't have that luxury @ Churchill.Thanks for making me laugh on this hot,exhausting day out here in SoCal.

Rocker, you seem to have forgotten another horse whose last prep was over synthetic before the Derby and that would be the horse who beat Hard Spun in 2007, Street Sense.  I have no problem with horses who prep over the synthetic tracks.  I don't, however, like horses who have raced on nothing but synthetic tracks.  I ate some crow on Colonel John last year in the Derby.  I made the money up on him in the Travers, but regardless.  That's why I give the advantage to IWR over the other WC horses.

    Dray, off of his last performance alone (never mind the Gotham) do you really think IWR doesn't deserve to be in anyone's top 3?  I know it's just your nature and you really don't believe that.  After, all he did whip your Imperial Council twice now.  Wasn't IC going to be in your tri box for the Derby after his "win" in the Wood?  Make no mistake about it, QR will have company on the front end in the Derby.  I could see someone like Shadwell sending Regal Ransom to the front if they thought it would help Desert Party's chances.  What about Square Eddie?  I heard they are going to train him up to and run him in the Derby (anyone confirm that?)  Don't you think he would be a little rank and wanting to go to the front off that long layoff?  Just a few thought that have went through my head.  IWR can run any style they want him to run.  He be up close, midpack or towards the rear.  They have to be all smiles in the Mullins' camp knowing that the colt can run whatever style the pace dictates.

    Finally for August Song, you're kidding right?  I don't care what the wind was like or if I was there outside at Aqueduct or not, there's no way that trip was the "perfect" trip.  Everyone was saying before the race that he would not like the inside post.  It would diminish his chances.  He would get kickback for the 1st time and he wouldn't like that, etc.  Now I'm to understand that being on the inside and spotting the field 6-8 lengths out of the gate was the perfect trip & perfect position?  He didn't even make contact with the field until they entered the 1st turn so what draft are you talking about?  I'm sorry, but no matter what conditions he was facing or competition, spotting the field 6 lengths at the start and then getting slammed coming down the stretch at the 1/8 pole and putting the field away convincingly without the jockey ever having to go to the whip to do so is not an overrated performance.  Knock on wood, but he's coming into the Derby sound and without any question marks.  That's more than anyone can say for the rest of the field.  QR has the quarter crack (serious or not it's still there), POTN has never raced on dirt (same for Chocolate Candy), Friesan Fire is coming off a 7 week layoff, Old Fashioned might have distance limitations, Dunkirk only has 3 career races (that doesn't matter to me, but to some it does), Desert Party is coming straight from Dubai, etc.  IWR will be a legit contender in the KY Derby no doubt about it.

I my opinion must derby preps don't have much major competition except for one or two hores. Street Sense beat Any given Saturday and lost to dominican. Big Brown raced no one except smooth air. Barbaro went against sharp humor. It does not matter who you beat as long as you win. That is why top five are:

IWR: the wood was sweet and he did beat West side bernie.

FF: he has just been a worker for months and keeps getting better.

POTN: how many different ways can you win.

Chocolate Candy: With some pace he might hae won. the derby might be scary

Quality Road: two great wins and not being favored. he beat dunkirk who everyone had in their top 5

It all matters what they show on the race track, they can't pick their competitors.

I am still mad the mousse is out, Draynay I mean quality road is just a hater and has his blinkers on when blogging! Desert party is a good horse that shouldnt be overlooked on derby day. Yeah horses from dubai generally dont do well but this horse is very talented.

Curlin let me clue you in... August Song is right... IWR did NOTHING special.  He beat a very average group and did it in a very average time. The question I have for you is did he do it with Air Power or without.  IWR could not beat Pioneer of the Nile all year and I don't expect him to in the Derby. Pioneer is no West Side Bernie. Maybe you better watch the Florida Derby and FOY again before thinking any horse is on par with that.  IWR ? Give me a break.... he couldn't beat Dunkirk.

SLEW.em.ALL:  I warn you that with The Pamplemousse out, if The pace scenario remains as is, Quality Road will romp the Derby.  It will be an afternoon stroll (assuming of course that the quarter crack is much ado about nothing).  Remember that pace makes the race and IWR, good as he and FF and POTN are, have yet to be exposed to hard core fractions.  You may try to explain it away but at least admit it my friend.

Unless Larry Jones decides to use up OF on the front end(hardly likely given his Rebel performance) or Big Drama's connections have a change of mind (hmm ...) or IEAH decides to spice it up with TOFP, everybody else will be running for second money Bro.  This is where the rubber meets the road.  I will wait to see if Jimmy Jerkens is confident about the quarter crack being a non-issue before nailing down my selection as well as your "handicapping coffin".

The Rock- Yes POTN beat IWR twice but as you can clearly see that IWR doesn't like the synthetic surface hes 1-6 over synthetic. Talamo said after the last race he ran on the Synthetic that he was poised to win and then all of sudden he was spinning his wheels, that's why Mullins brought him out to the East Coast not because he was ducking POTN.. As you can see since the switch to dirt  he has been awesome.I don't want to seem mean and like a know it all but if you people follow the triple crown you would know that was the case. Or if you were a handicapper you should have realized this.

As far as Baffert's training strategy with the POTN  I never expected him to have the horse leave CA. I'm guessing Bob's attitude is let me prepare him the best I can out here and lets see if he likes the dirt on derby day. He  probably didn't want to ship the horse out and stress him out when he could stay at home win the big races  and get him ready the best he can.

Mullins had no choice he had to go to NY to get his horse ready. Heres the most important fact that POTN has not gotten a 100+ beyer in the last 2 races or in his life  and i'm telling you this horse is going to finish mid pack in the derby.

Curlin- You make a good point about Street Sense. Now I was a big Street Sense fan because I had him when he ran in the Breeders Cup JV.

Now this why I didn't mention Street Sense 2nd place Blue Grass. We already new before his 3yr campaign that he loved Churchill. Second the only reason why that Street Sense ran in the Blue Grass because he needed another race before the derby. Street Sense broke his maiden at Arlington  thats why they didn't mind running him on the synthetic. My point is that Street Sense loved Churchill and was a dirt horse that could run over the synthetic surface. The Bluegrass race for him was nothing but a live race work out.

All that race did for all the Street Sense backers was make the price on him on derby day go from 6/5 to 9/2 that he paid out. The Blue Grass wasn't the reason why Street Sense won the derby. Thats why I don't mention it. The reason why he won the race was because he was a really good horse and he loved the Churchill surface.

I have to say Colonel John Killed me in the Travers I bet $500 to win on Mambo In Seattle. TVG showed that race the other the day and I still don't see how Colonel John won that photo. That's why I love this game cause one time you're on the winning end of that photo next time you take a bad beat like me on that day.

What's up with Square Eddie? Is he offically out or are the shins healing.

    Dray, average field?  It might have been, but that field did include your Imperial Council.  You know the horse that was suppose to win the Wood and be in your Derby tri box.  Would you make up you dang mind already!!!  Vineyard Haven, Stardom Bound, Desert Party, Imperial Council, Quality Road, which one is it?  And I know you're not bashing IWR for Air Power considering your boy Big Brown was juiced to the eyeballs last year.

    The fact is that was an impressive performance.  Don't be ticked because IWR proved you wrong and has whipped IC like a chump twice now.

    IWR will have a say in who wins the Derby.  He absolutely can beat POTN and I expect he will do so in the Derby.  Different surface, different ballgame!  QR will have company on the front end in the Derby, there's not a doubt in my mind.  They won't let him pull a War Emblem.  I have already stated possible scenarios in an earlier post so I won't get into those.  I will add we don't even know who will come out of the AR Derby, Bluegrass or Lexington yet.  Perhaps a speed horse?  The possibilities are endless and we won't know until they draw the post positions.

    In summation, I don't think I'm the one who is clueless.  Come back to reality partner.  It's nice down here.  If QR is out of the Derby because of the quarter crack, who will be your backup?  I guess that would actually be your backup to the backup to the backup to the backup.  You know that can't miss horse that the rest of us are ignorant for not seeing.

Was gallant son In the race?

Dray & August Song,

POTN is no West Side Bernie??? Even though WSB lost to a horse that was defeated by POTN twice already! Average time? Dray, get over your QR track record time ok? That track was so souped up I could've broken the track record that day! That track was at least 10 lengths faster than usual. And IWR ran 7 lengths faster than the Excelsior field earlier in the card. Average time?  Give me a break.

We will see on Derby Day how IWR performs without his Air Power. They are going to be watching that horse like a hawk... when he bombs you will know why.  IWR ended up with soft races against soft talent running soft times.  See what good that does him on Derby Day with a 19 year old on his back. Quality Road is simply better and faster than the rest.  If you can't see that by now after all the races then I can't help you.  You will not have the winner come Derby Day.  Come back here and let me know how IWR worked out for you.

Whereas there will be no challenge to your top eleven, your rankings certainly require rearrangement.  POTN has won four straight graded stakes on a surface that should be recording faster time than dirt.  The average derby half mile split is 46 plus seconds. The half miles in the Robert Lewis, San Felipe and SA Derby were, 47.11, 48.60 & 48.65 respectively. You will note that each race the half mile was slower. The average derby six furlongs split is 1:10 plus seconds. The six furlongs splits in the Robert Lewis, San Felipe and SA Derby were, 1:12.18, 1:12.82 & 1:12.32.  In some instances POTN was setting these fractions. How can he match strides with your #2 ranked horse whose splits 4 & 6 furlongs splits for the FOY & FL Derby were 45.55, 1:09.40, 46.83 &1:10.66. QR can run POTN fractions running backwards. If POTN allows QR to set slow fractions he has no chance of beating him. To stays close to the FOY & FL Derby fractions he has to be nudged along thus utilizing more energy than desired at that point in the race.  He does not have the speed to beat your #2 and consequently should not be above him. If you compare Take Me Home’s Lanes End victory off a five months respite to POTN SA Derby victory, PONT should be ranked below TMH.

The rankings for I want Revenge & Friesan Fire I have no quarrel with. However, to rank Old Fashioned above Desert Party; Chocolate Candy above Musket Man; Desert Party above Regal Ransom makes no sense.

Old Fashioned clearly shows he will not effectively see out 10 furlongs and desert party should not problems with the trip. They both have two graded victories. Chocolate Candy does not have the speed to beat Musket Man. Musket Man has only lost once in six starts and has recorded a 1:22 plus clocking for 7 furlongs. Chocolate Candy cannot run 7 furlongs in 1:22 with converted nuclear fuel added to his diet. He is too slow for a #7 ranking. Regal Ransom made up six to seven lengths on Desert Party between the January 22 conditions race, the February 12 UAE Two Thousand Guineas and the UAE Derby. In those races he got tied to the end but that was not the case in the UAE Derby. To erase that kind of deficit at a distance more suitable to his stalemate is testament to how improved he is. If you think Desert Party merits a #6 ranking then Regal Ransom should be ranked higher.

Theregoesjojo and Hold Me Back should certainly be above Chocolate Candy and Old Fashioned. In fact, Hold Me Back and Mafaaz should return a decent exactor in the Bluegrass. Hold Me Back will occupy one of the spots behind the winner in on the derby board. Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy and POTN will not.

Guys, I have a spreadsheet comprised of the past KD winners and their pedigrees. Based on what my spreadsheet is reflecting, Regal Ransom & Hold Me Back pedigrees are the ones closest to past winner.

Why is no one talking about Musket Man?? He is 5-6 lifetime in his career, with graded stakes wins at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8. He is so versitale, can be put in any spot on the track, manuever through the field and has a push button speed rarely seen. He ran a decently fast time on probably the slowest dirt track...Hawthorne.  I think you all are completely missing out on this horse, he's my choice to win the derby.

Btw-

The winds at AQU did help IWR recover after breaking in the air

Quality Road wont get the help from the packed track in KY if he races

POTN 6th, hes good....for the west coast

FF- Fair Grounds horse of the century (pyro exacta)

WW- In my tri

Dunkirk- In my tri

Musket Man/WW, Dun/ WW, Dun

LOVE IWR splitting horses in deep stretch for the second time (Cash Call as well).  Neither he nor his jockey fear much.  Dangerous.  POTN has some really bad habits that don't lend well to great Derby performances (pulls up, wants the lead, looks at the crowd, can't seem to run straight some times). I saw him up close and he is one of the fittest I have seen in some time though and continues to win despite himself.  Chocolate Candy...LOVE his blue collar workman like runs.  Has won on 3 of 4 different tracks with 6 different jockey combos.  He has also had a few 8-9 hour van rides back and forth from Golden Gate to Los Angeles.  Nothing seems to bother/intimidate him including POTN and IWR.  Saw him almost fall asleep in the paddock. Hollendorfer has done a wonderful job getting him to this point.  Get ready QR...these 3 are coming for you at the top of the stretch.  IWR splitting tiring speed along the rail, POTN running down the center of the track on your tail, and CC coming 6-8 wide running up the middle where no one sees him.

Well if we can't get Alex Solis to win the Derby how about North America's most winningest jockey at 10,000+ wins!  The Hollendorfer/Russel Baze combination has been a prolific one indeed.  I think he just had his 50th Birthday.  

There is another major issue that racing will be AGAIN be dealing with in this year's Triple Crown. Mullins is a known race cheater. He milkshaked and has been suspended on multiple occasions for drugs being used on his horses.

Mullins was caught red-handed Saturday giving Gato Go Win allegedly Air Power, who he compared to "a cough drop." The horse was ordered scratched by the Stewards but, had I Want Revenge already been taken care of? Mullins response was typical of the cheat that he is. "I've never had a good experience anytime I go to New York, and I will avoid New York at all costs." One of his previous comments had been to say, "All horseplayers are idiots." I call hardly wait for NBC to pick up on this known cheat in their Kentucky Derby broadcast, and the moronic Dutrowesque ("I don't know what steroids do.") comments that he's made.

I'm surprised I Want Revenge wasn't ordered scratched by the stewards, too. And assuming that the Air Power he used only contained Air Power, the integrity of the sport of horseracing continues to be challenged by known cheats with absolutely brazen contempt, that they can do whatever they want.

And if you still are of the mentality, that Mullins did nothing mindset, except give Gato Go Win the equivalent of "a cough drop", read on: "The active ingredient in Air Power is Guaifenesin. It could be used as a performance enhancer, a bronchial cleanser combined with anesthetic qualities.... it "also has other known neurological effects, including an analgesic effect that is related to it's action as a skeletal muscle relaxant, and possible inhibition of platelet aggregation."

Mullins knew the rules of the detention barn but, had the sheer audacity to blame others, "They looked at everything I carried in, so when they let me through [with Air Power], in my mind, everything was fine... Everything was out in the open. Two investigators watched me give the horse the treatment, then five minutes later they wanted to see it. If they saw the Air Power and dosing syringe on me the whole time, the why didn't they try and stop me?"  

I see a Big 5 right now with Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, and Dunkirk (in that order) and led by the BIG 2 I Want Revenge and Quality Road. The first 3 are all wonderful horses and I seriously admire Friesan Fire and, in particular, Pioneer of the Nile for winning multiple stakes races. Only really good horses can win 4 straight grade 1 and 2 races, something Pioneer' has now done. However, I think Quality Road and I Want Revenge are a level above everyone else, and have the ability to be big-time stars. Of course, it's all about staying helathy, or getting healthy in Quality Road's case. We've already lost a major contender with The Grapefruit going to the sidelines.

Old Fashioned, with his back-class and talent, can make it a Big 6 if he wins the Arkansas Derby impressively. However, I have serious reservations about 10 furlongs for him. The top 2nd tier horses for me are: Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Westside Bernie, Hold Me Back, Flying Pegasus, and Win Willy. The last 3 can move up a bit this weekened, as can Papa Clem, Patena, Terrain, and Jojo. Mr.Hot Stuff probably won't have the earnings, and I hope Chris Block sticks to his plan and keeps Giant Oak off the Triple Crown trail.

Bulletin!!!

There's trouble in IWR's camp. Jeff Mullins was seen administering a drug ("Air Power") through a syringe to Gato Go Win Saturday in the detention barn leading to the Stewards forcing him to scratch Gato Go Win before the Bay Shore Stakes. He may have juiced IWR too. The investigation is currently ongoing. Mullins is in trouble. And is IWR not quite the horse he appears? Stay tuned.

Just something to think about, but i've seen POTN race, and i've also heard other people state he has a big long stride. Well, maybe it's just me, but i thought that longer stride weren not as productive on turf as they are to be on dirt ie. Curlin. I also know that POTN has a wicked kick when allowed to use it, plus, the horse can run anywhere in the field he wants. Tell me why this horse shouldn't like dirt?  Why can't he just be one of those horses that can just run on anything you put him on? He's by empire maker, who has been siring all kinds of horses, so this horse may be able to take to anything. POTN has already shown how versitle he is, running on turf and Pro ride, being able to run on or near the pace or close. If he's already that versitle, then why shouldn't he be able to take to dirt?

You know i seem to remember another Larry Jones colt, who had alot of speed and talent, and was undeafted, that was untill the Southwest. I think he got fourth in that race and went on to win the Derby. What was his name, it started with an H, Oh, Hard Spun. Alot of people didn't think Hard Spun couldn't get the distance in the Derby and look what he did, ran second in the Derby, and would've won had everyone just let Borel up the rail and have the perfect dream trip. Why couldn't OF be the same way. He was unbeaten up until the rebel, or his second prep, like HS, he has alot of speed, is very talented. Both these horses have alot in common. If this horse wins his next race he'll be a force to reckon with on derby day. In my oppinion this field is getting to be almost as good as the 07 field. You have OF, FF, CC, POTN, IWR, QR, Dunkirk, etc. This will be one heck of a year. My top five, as of now in not particular order.

IWR

FF

OF

POTN

Dunkirk

QR is left out because that quarter crack will lose him training time, and a horse need all they can get before the big dance.

August Song and Dray have great points on the Wood, who did he beat? Final time wasn't great. Yeh August and Dray remember Pyro's Lousiana Derby, enough said. Should be fun, QR over Dunkirk over General Quarters is the tri.

nay nay,

Give me a break. IWR overcame more in one race than some horses do in a career (ie: Big Brown) to win the Wood. He showed some major class in doing that. Just last year you wailed on and on about the trouble that Big Brown had in the Belmont an he wasn't good enough to overcome that. To top it off the Belmont competition was no better than what IWR faced on Saturday. You're arguements are not legitimate when you continue to change your position to suit your needs. Someday you may want to consider getting real.

Okay kids I'm going to make a couple of comments here about air power and the "syringe". Air power is like giving Buckley's to a human being. There is nothing in it that is banned. Saying that, the rules state you cannot administer anything in the detention barn. He broke the rules plain and simple. The syringe in question from what I read is the metal one you use to rinse their mouth out. Correct me if I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I'm commenting because I believe that some people will overreact, so wait for the rest of the story okay?

IWR's Thorograph figures are every bit as good as QRs, however I think (as do many others) that both could be primed for a bounce in the Derby, especially if QR misses workouts due to this quarter crack.  In terms of the rest of the field, the Florida Derby may have been a little better due to the presence of Dunkirk, but beyond that, it's hard to argue that one field was tons better than the other.

Draynay can continue to compare his raw track times over different tracks (and now it seems, different surfaces as well because apparently poly tracks can have a direct comparison).  The rest of the world understands that this is ridiculously foolish, especially in the case of poly to dirt jump-ups.  Remember, this is the loud-mouth who told us all that QR, Imperial Council, and Desert Party were the only 3 to worry about in the Derby.  IC can't even make the race now and DP was beaten in his last race which included probably the worst field of any 3 year old prep this year.  

It is pretty funny listening to him try to talk to people like he knows what he is talking about, when he very clearly does not.

One thing about POTN, you're not overwhelmed by his "anything", but he is beautifully efficient, and while it seems to simmer under the surface, he has a big will to run, he's pretty easy to rate but not tolerant of "slow"...he reminds me a lot in his conformation, head, running style of another classy horse that took me a long, long time to appreciate...Affirmed...

FF musket man perfecta and throw in dunkirk QR and IWR to round out the tri.

Don,

   I Agree with you and so does my wallet!, lol, BUT once I heard "The Pamplemousse" was scratched, I did hit the 4-1-5 tri($20), only paid $350 but better then nothing. I thought "I want Revenge" ran a great race as well as Joe T./Jockey, "Stardom Bound" let me down, I thought Mike Smith was late in stretch to get her going, though...and my gut is saying "Quality Road" will not make the derby, I hope I am wrong, though, and lastly, "Dunkirk" will get in, too many horses will be dropping out in front of him...

Rocker,

IWR's top Beyer heading into the Gotham was 91 I believe. What does that say about the Beyers when it reflects on synthetic surfaces? I think they still have a long way to go on determining a true Beyer scale for these sythetic surfaces. How is it all of a sudden when these horses go from synth/dirt they suddenly snap and run a big beyer? For some cases I can understand that a horse takes to dirt better than synthetic surfaces as IWR has. But this has been a recurring theme this year when horses have shipped out from the west coast and run big on dirt. They (whoever caluclates the Beyer's out on the west coast) just have no idea what do when grading these horses performances.

quality road is till my top choice but i cant help but think of big brown when i hear the word quarter crack the difference is with quality road injury its his back right hoof and to my knoledge a horse need his back hoof to push off i know they have the best hoof specialist inthe buiness i dont know weater to trust mckinly the thing is it is not as bad as big browns last year but hearing as big is a bit of good news but if they cant get the heat out of that leg they arnt going to be able to make the derby the trainer said yesterday that he wants to get 2 work outs before shiping to churchhill as for pioneer of the nile excuse me for saying this im not sure what the hype is about he barely won his last to starts  chocloate candy almost beat him on saturday i think that horse is a bit risky that horse hasnt been on horse to my knowlegde not that that means any thing but if you go from a synthetic surface to a pure dirt surface in less than  week you wont have enough time to change your mind i want revenge impressed me he made a bad race look good thats saying something i mean when you start out dead last because you were flat footed at the start and find the speed at the last minut i though her would get traped up was suprised that he found a hole to get through as far as musket man goes i thing he has to be one of my dark horses for the derby especially down the streach

Your "thank God" referring to a change of riders on JoJo(a swipe at Kent)

never took into cosideration that Kent will be up on Hold Me Back who has already qualified in earnings.

And speaking of lousy rides what abot the one on Mr. Hot Stuff ?(horrendous)

Nakatani  does not fit that horse. Guess who does-

Hall of Famer and two-time Derby winner Kent D.

Also remember when picking  top fives-A horse is usually never as good or as bad as his last race.

For those saying Imperial Council had NO excuse, go read the DRF article. According to Shug, IC was hot on the walkover. Then he proceeded to rear up twice in the paddock, and flipped (?). Seeing as he was cleared to run, the flip couldn't have been horribly bad, but it sounds to me as if IC left his race in the paddock. Having prior experience with the likes of Coronado's Quest, I think Shug will take his time with this colt, and we'll hear from him later in the year.

As for the filly, if you're going to complain about who (insert whatever colt you don't like here) has beaten who, well, exactly who has RA beaten? Not much if you ask me- and small fields to boot. I have no problem with her staying in the Oaks, and would love to see her take the CCA Oaks and Alabama later!

Does anyone else think Steve Haskin putting Freisian Fire at #6 on his derby dozen below Dunkirk and CC is ridiculous?

AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO WATCHED THE WOOD AND SAW THAT IWR DIDN'T EVEN GET TAPPED WITH THE WHIP ONCE AND STILL TURNED UP THAT AMAZING PERFORMANCE?! PLEASE DO NOT DISCOUNT HIM, IT WAS INCREDIBLE AND GAVE ME GOOSEBUMPS!

Oldfashioned Gal,

    You are 100 Percent correct !, "I Want Revenge" was an incredible performance!

He ran one of the most impressive preps in the last few years in the Wood. Instead of racing in his customary prominent spot, he broke in the air and found himself at the back of the eight-horse pack. I defer to the chart caller for the description of the rest of the race:  “Trailed while well in hand on the backstretch, made a move between horses on the far turn, waited while behind a wall of horses nearing the stretch, steadied in traffic at the three-sixteenth pole, swing five wide for clear sailing in upper stretch, split rivals to take the lead inside the furlong marker then drew off under a vigorous hand ride.”

Bottom line: That was as impressive a performance as we’ve seen from a young 3-year-old in years. I’d wager that if the Kentucky Derby was run tomorrow, "I Want Revenge" would go off favored, even though "Friesan Fire", "Quality Road" and "Pioneer of the Nile" all have arguably accomplished more than the son of Stephen Got Even.  

...Still think "Friesan Fire" Will Win, Though, lol....("Still holding out hope for "Rachel Alexandra", though)

I wonder what everyone will think when "Win Willy" beats "Papa Clem" and "Old Fashioned" this weekend in the Arkansas Derby?

Also, Keep your eye on "Summer Bird" in the Arkansas Derby(If he runs), He is a wildcard...

I am POSITIVE Draynay will disagree with everything I just wrote, lol...

I think they should redistribute the purses for the Gotham as a redult of the Air Power IWR got illegally.

Wanda---I agree. We should definitely wait for the results of the investigation before over-reacting to the Mullins incident. As I said on another blog--just what was he thinking??

Mr. Hot Stuff got a horrible, horrible ride. Why put a huge closer on the inside? And it really broke my heart watching them gallop out - he zipped by them all, way into the backstretch. But Pioneerof the Nile amazed me when he pulled to the lead, was held back, and still won. He's got guts.

But I Want Revenge is just mind boggling.

I have to admit to being truly impressed with IWR and Joe Talemo.  It was an extraordinary race and they most certainly did not have the "perfect ride".  Racing does not need to deal with any drug issues this year - so even though I'm super impressed, I'm very nervous about IWR.  I'll hold on to my high hopes for OF through this coming weekend.  I want Larry Jones to win this year.  Still such a great group of impressive colts (and Rachel A)  I love Stardom Bound and haven't seen any video of her race.  What happened?

Justine, according to the Santa Anita quotes, Corey said of Mr. Hot Stuff:

"I started to make a move and they all quickened around the far turn. I dropped back to the inside, gave him a little education, and he ran hard. He's just one of those Belmont-type horses, I think."

I keep reading statements of "Who did he beat"? What have any of them beaten? There are so many prep races nowadays that rarely do any of these horses get tested until the Derby. Every horse is shying from another contender just so they can get their graded earnings in order to get in the race. Arguably POTN & Quality Road are the only ones that I can think of off the top of my head to defeat graded stakes winners. Look, if you enter into a G1 race you expect the best to show up. But everyone is so keyed in on getting graded earnings you're not going to get that kind of caliber of field. The point is nearly moot. You can really base it only on several factors. Speed figures, how they run their races, whether they've faced adversity, consistency, etc. POTN is the only multiple G1 winner going into the Derby. Up to this point he's defeated another G1 winner (IWR).

TerriV,

    Here you go, Stardom Bound in the Ashland, In my opinion, I just think Mike Smith waited a little too long to get her going...:

www.youtube.com/watch

POTN is still my top choice, smashing victory at SA.  Also, liked the jocks comments about him.  Can not dismiss his bloodlines by Empire Maker,certainly can get the distance.  Was impressed with MM and the ID.  He could be one to watch, may just sneak up and grab the whole thing.  Saddened to hear the news on QR and his quarter crack, evidently it's still oozing blood after his works.  He maybe should skip the big dance in Louisville and shoot for Balto.  Would hate to see any more injuries. Dunkirk should stay home along with his trainer, too over-rated.  

Terri V,

I don't think she's (Stardom Bound) been the same kind of horse since she's switched barns.

    First of all, there is no proof Mullins administered Air Power to IWR.  Second, for those who are saying if he did it probably would have had more than Air Power, well, I guess post race drug results will show that won't they.  Nothing seems to have turned up for his impressive Gotham win.  My guess Dray is that even if IWR was given Air Power he will run a much better race next time out without it than Big Brown did without his steroids.

    People keep knocking IWR's final time in the Wood.  All things considered I would say it wasn't bad at all.  Spotting the field 6 lengths at the break, getting blocked then bumped hard in the stretch and Talamo never going to the whip affected the final time.  Read Steve Haskins' Derby Dozen list and you'll see he still came home the last 5/8 in under a minute and the last 1/8 in 12 flat.  All that trouble and he still stopped the clock in almost 1 1/2 seconds faster than older graded stakes horses did just 1 race earlier.  If IWR gets a clean trip like QR did in the FL Derby & Talamo uses the whip, his time is more around the 1:48 flat range.  I'll take that time at Aqueduct over the bogus time QR put up at Daytona.  Sorry, I mean Gulfstream.  How many track records were set on FL Derby day?  I believe it was 3.  Do you honestly think those 3 horses are the best to ever race their given distances at Gulfstream?  Dray, QR's time was how much faster than your beloved Big Brown's time just a year earlier?

    The Rock, very valid point and it was the same point I was making in an earlier post on this topic.  I will add that IWR did beat WSB and although he is not a top 5 3 year old, he is a graded stakes winner.

    I will not discount any 3 year old who appears to be headed for the Derby at this time.  A lot can happen b/w now & then.  I will wait & see who trains well at Churchill and is leading up to the Derby the best.  However, if anyone leaves IWR off of their tickets, they do so at the expense of their own dime.  The horse has heart.  He has proven he can overcome trouble.  He can race whatever style the pace (or break) dictates and still have a powerful kick down the stretch.  He will be somewhere in the trifecta, that I'm betting on.  If you can't see that dray, then I can't help you.  Help me help you.

Here we go. Mullins is now claiming that the problem that he had in the detention barn at Aqueduct was  "an honest mistake." Coming from a proven horseracing cheat like him 1) it's never honest, and 2)it's never a mistake. And as far as people wanting to believe that Air Power is all-natural and there is nothing wrong with it, well so are baking soda and cobra venom all-natural, too. Mullins also said that he's been using Air Power his entire racing career but, said he couldn't comment on whether I Want Revenge received Air Power prior to winning the Gotham Stakes. Mullins is one sleezy low-life cheat of a horse trainer!

No medication (with the exception of the diuretc lasix is allowed, and that is only administered to horses by a State vet prior to their race), over-the-counter or otherwise, is permitted to be given in New York on race day. The possession of a syringe is also a violation of the detention barn rules. Mullins was well aware of the rules. He has since hired a New York based attorney Karen Murphy to represent him.

Give him a 6 months or 1 year suspension, like Biancone. That will be 6 months or one year that a crooked trainer and race cheat like him can cheat you, the people who bet on horses, who Mullins has referred to as "idiots."

Greg I just watched the Ashland and I don't think Mike Smith waited to long. I love Stardom Bound but I feel like she is a tired horse right now. Mike Smith gave her the same trip as he always has but in the last two races she  hasn't had that same powerful kick like she did late last year.  

I would bye pass the oaks and would give her a rest and get her ready for a summer/fall campaign. IEAH will still be represented in the oaks with the other Tapit filly Laragh. Rachel Alexandra is the winner of the Oaks!

This is such a great blog.  I love reading everyone's posts and their opinions and there are several very educated opinions.

I loved IWR's Wood!  He was remarkable.  Quality Road was impressive and PON seems to do nothing wrong but I do believe that Chocolate Candy will prevail.

He can ship anywhere and nothing bothers him.  I realize there is the synthetic vs dirt factor but this horse is ready to show what he can really do and his nerves of steel will facilitate that.  Just my opinion.

The only horses advantaged by the "slow" pace in the Wood were Lord Justice, Imperial Council, and the other horses near the front. With such a "slow" pace, the front runners should have had plenty left to hold off a horse coming from behind, particularly one that lost 5 lengths at the start. I Want Revenge was disadvantaged by the pace in the Wood; to say within contention early, he was forced to move up into a 23 and 3 second quarter and then try to continue closing the gap into a :24  3rd quarter as the front runners, having saved something, tried to separate themselves. Had the pace been faster, the front runners would have stopped sooner and more abruptly then they actually did, and IWR and Bernie' would have run by them even faster. Although IWR had to run steady :23-24 quarters to make up for the start and then the trouble later, he still closed in a sub-:12  final eighth.

While some are downgrading the Wood because IWR did not face "serious" fractions, others are downgrading it because the pace was TOO FAST (compared to the Excelsior) and the front runners had "spent themselves". The fact is, I Want Revenge was awesome in the Wood, just like Quality Road was in the Florida Derby. I can certainly understand those picking other horses in the Kentucky Derby; it will be an entirely different race and there are some other good horses. I also understand that some have favorites, or that some have pushed themselves into a corner by loudly proclaiming that HORSE X "can't lose" the Derby. However, I just don't understand all the negativity on this Blog and how some can be so disparaging of such wonderful horses.

As for the competition in the Wood, West Side Bernie is a proven graded stakes contender, that lost the Delta Jackpot by only a length to a horse many think very highly of (Big Drama), and earned a solid 101 Beyer for the Wood.

Historically, West Side Bernie fits perfectly with the type of horse that typically runs 2nd in races such as the Wood and Santa Anita Derby. The same is true for Chocolate Candy, another proven graded stakes horse. The fact is, as others have pointed out, there are SO many preps that it is rare to have one prep in which there are more than 2 or 3 top level contenders. This year has been no different than most of the past 30 years. And remember, the Santa Anita Derby would have had 3 top contenders had The Pamplemousse not been injured.

In my opinion, the best 2nd place finisher in a Derby prep so far this year was Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. However, unless Jojo bounces back in a big way in the Blue Grass, the Florida Derby will produce only 2 Kentucky Derby starters. I also find it interesting that many of the same people that BASHED Dunkirk before and immediately after the Florida Derby are now using him to validate the competition Quality Road has faced. In fact, I had to make a post immediately after the Florida Derby in which I wrote that what made Quality Road's victory so impressive was that he was able to turn back the run of a very, very good colt.

In any event, comparing raw times can be a somewhat dubious pursuit. The only other two-turn race on Saturday's Aqueduct card, the grade 3 Excelsior for older horses also at 9 furlongs, had half mile and 6 furlong splits 2 SECONDS SLOWER than the Wood. Thus, I think it is open to interpretation how "slow" the pace of the Wood was.

What is more, the "slow pace" argument seems more appropriate if the horses being criticized were frontrunners. As stated earlier, the "slow" pace in the Wood was to the advantage of the front runners, not IWR, a horse trying to close from 10 lengths back. If IWR or Pioneer of the Nile, for that matter, were front runners exploiting extremely slow paces, then I think the critique would be a better fit.

Finally, if IWR or Pioneer will be "unable' to stay close to the fast Derby pace, there only appears to be one front runner that could take advantage of the separation that could be created by the fast pace and then still have enough left to hold off IWR and Pioneer; and that front runner is Quality Road. It is possible that Quality Road is just too fast for the other horses. I certainly think he (and IWR) are two of the more talented 3 year olds the last 10 years. However, Quality Road will also find the Kentucky Derby to be far different from his 2 prep races. The track will be different, the distance longer, and the other pace horses will be a big step up from Phil' and Casey on Call. And now there is a quarter crack to deal with.

And what if the pace for the Derby actually is slow? There does not appear to be alot of speed lining up. According to the "pace theory" of some, horses like IWR, Pioneer, and Friesan Fire may actually have a chance if the pace is slow because they will not be too far back off the front runners, and the race will shape up similar to their preps. However, I feel if the pace is slow, it would actually advatange the front runners more (Quality Road, Papa Clem, Old Fashioned, Flying Pegasus, Regal Ransom) and hurt horses trying to close like IWR or Pioneer, FF, CC,etc.

Nothing is a certainty at this point. I just hope all these horses make it to Churchill safely. This Blog needs less negativity, less name-calling and personal insults, and less Ego.

I think they waited too long to get Stardom Bound going too and I think she is tired and thin.

IWR ran an amazing race anyway you look at the Wood. Supposedly Mullins didn't give IWR Air Power, right? Even if he did, it does not explain that performance. That horse is special. Mullins is another issue. It appears he is "special" too but in the wrong kind of way. What doesn't he understand about a "No Drug Polciy."

POTN has won last two with early moves---pro-ride is like turf and early moves on grass are usually bad moves--whether he dirts or not, this is a very good animal! I love the Affirmed anology! He DOES have that svelt, reaching, head low style of the great Affirmed, who, by the way, never turfed but was a sire of turfers....He'll get throwback from where he'

ll be sitting--probably 10th...Go Go will come come with this classy colt--I think he'll probably hit the board....

Curlin... I don't want to go over this again and again.  If some of you think IWR has any shot at all bet him and bet him big.  IF IWR wins the Derby I will wear a Pink Dress with a pretty pink hat to the Belmont. After the Belmont I will shave my head wear a bed sheet and sell flowers at the Airport.  Why do I say these things... because you have a better shot of seeing flying monkeys than you do seeing IWR win the Derby.  But please don't let that stop you from betting him.  I mean look at the way he beat Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council and ah um ah um... well you know the other horses.  A horse running a 149.49 doesn't scare ANYONE !!!

No rocket science required. Two horses setting a comfortable and appropriate pace, in adverse weather conditions, and NO HORSES BEING ABLE TO MAKE UP ANY, ANY, ANY, GROUND ON THEM IN THE RUN THROUGH THE STRETCH --- PROOF OF AN ADVANTAGE FOR THE FRONTRUNNERS, especially in the light that all the participants were older, seasoned horses, used to running a) the distance, and b) by having had more experience (ie: more races) there was a good chance, these horses had already run in adverse, less than ideal weather conditions.

I know this is hard to follow for some. Try and pay attention. Let us compare how the Wood Memorial race was run. The race was run 2 seconds faster for the half and 6F, by horses who a) had NEVER run that far, ever before, in their young, relatively inexperienced lives, and b) there was a very, very good chance that because of the relative inexperience, that those horses never had run in a race, that race type of race, with the wind being such a factor.  ONLY ONE HORSE CLOSED IN THAT RACE, AND THAT HORSE WAS THE ONLY HORSE THAT WASN'T ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE PACE, WHO SIMPLY STROLLED OUT OF THE GATE AND WASN'T USED UNTIL THE STRETCH, when all the other horses were spent from their earlier efforts of being on or close to the lead of a pace that could not be sustained, certainly in that type of track and weather condition.

LDP, you ran track. Please comment on who has the advantage, running at a fast pace, into a fierce headwind. Yep, no rocket science required. Where were the frontrunners at the finish of this "slowly" contested race?

Rocker,

    You are probably right about "Stardom Bound", I just watched all her races, and yes, they were all carbon copy's of each other, I also agree that she is not the same since going to IAEH(Won by a nose, then third), They should rest her, and yes "Rachel Alexandra" should easily take the Oak.....

Your right Gunbow we do need to be more postitive and I am going to get us started.

Gunbow I am "positive" that Quality Road is better than any horse you may pick for the Derby and I am "positive" Quality Road is going to win the Derby.

Hey! Your right this whole positive thing is fun....

Chocolate candy allllllllllllllllllllllllllll the way

It is unfortunate that we will not get to see (my thoughts) the best 3 year old run in the Derby and that is Midshipman.  Outside of that I am an Unbridled's Song fav and believe all his best offspring run their hearts out. Sorry fan favs but west coast horses will not due well in the Derby.  I am going with FF as the favorite with Dunkirk and Old Fashioned improving their rankings with the posters over the next week.

    I'm starting to think August Song & Dray are one in the same or at least related.  Anyone else?  Anyway, 1:49.49 may not scare anyone, but honestly, 1:47.7 doesn't scare anyone either when it's run on pavement.  In most cases, setting a track record is special, but not when 3 track records fall on the same day and it's not BC Day!  If you want to compare raw times in this case that's your mistake.  You say IWR did nothing special.  Whatever.  Whether it's wrong or not, that's your opinion.  Dray, you've drank the QR kool-aid.  When I'm cashing my Derby tickets, I'll ask the teller to give me the money you bet on QR.

    August Song, headwind, slow pace, whatever.  Hey what was the barometric pressure up there in New York.  You think that had an adverse effect on the pace?  Reason however you wish.  I do it myself.  Nothing still explains how the horse came home his last 5/8 in under a minute and last 1/8 in 12 flat.  It's not "rocket science" but since it's a 2 turn race, didn't IWR have to deal with the same headwind coming down the stretch as the other horses supposedly had to deal with heading into the 1st turn?  Seems his come home times would have been slower heading into that fierce Arctic front, Canadian clipper or whatever it was.

GUN BOW: IWR is indeed a very talented colt whose last two performances have been visually very impressive.  Chances are, his full potential is still unknown BUT what we do know, based upon the level of competition, speed figures and Derby-pedigree-profile is that he is not yet Quality Road's equal.  You can spin the comparitive statistics anyway you want but the evidence is hard to deny if you're honest: Quality Road is "el numero uno".  

I love how draynay and the thong song bash every other horse like their garbage. Cheater trainers though are the new wave of winning the derby baby, its going to go 1)IWR 2)QR 3) Win Willy 4) Capitain DUNKIRK! Win willy was no fluke watch the supercloser this weeekend!

Thank you, Greg J for the link.  I thought this race looked just like her last one.  She may have been held back a little too long but I think there must be another issue.  Can't really say what, maybe she's tired or it's growing pains or she hasn't adjusted to the changes since last year.  Horses (especially thoroughbreds) are so sensitive.  Mike Smith has been so close to her, has he made any comments?

Hey Curlin don't blame the Canadian clipper but I totally agree with you. When a horse walks out of the gate and can close like he did is amazing. I don't care who he beat or what the time was, it was a great feat for any horse to do. You can analyze it any way you want but that shows me that he's a pretty nice hide.

Curlin you are aware that IWR ran the first half mile in OVER 50 seconds ?  If he does that in the Derby the race will be over when he hits the top of the stretch.  Fact is he has never seen splits at 6 furlongs like 1:10 he has only seen pace that is 10 lengths slower.  Good luck with him in the Derby. He is 0 for 2 against Pioneer of the Nile and has a 19 year old jockey ... no thanks!!!

Dray is singing that lame same song all over again.Too bad he's not a man of his word.You kept saying IWR & FF had no shot @ winning their respective preps,then when they kick-ass you don't uphold your end of the bargain....anyways,keep on dismissing their chances as we all know you haven't a clue what you're talking about..

August Song,

    To tell you the truth, in track, i don't care where you come from, front back or middle, if your against the wind, it's hard as h///.  If your running into it on the first turn, front people may get it a bit worse, but, in sprints, which can go up to a quarter mile or one lap, your staggered, so that doesn't make a difference. In a longer race however, everyone is so spread out most of the time everyone gets the wind at some time or another. Now if your on the final turn or straight, trying to make up ground, then it makes a difference, but to closers, because as i said the runners are pretty spread out and if your trying to make up ground in a headwind, god be with you. I should know, i'm one of those who like to sit back then run at the end.

Cavoneer should have won the Derby---he had a big steady at head of stretch and lost by a nose--Bob Baffert usually makes a splash when he has a horse---and he has a horse this year! If he dirts......look out! It's starting to look like a trend with the success of the West Coasters...Albertus Maximus...Well Armed...I Want Revenge...if he dirts, Pioneerof The Nile is the horse to beat in Kentucky---he's beaten some tough guys--and like I said, you can pick your Derby trainer...I'll take Bob Baffert.....

Dray as much as I wouldn't like to see Jeff Mullins in the winners circle, You in a pink dress on Belmont Day does intice! Of corse, the green cash I'll be getting with my POTN/Freisan Fire ex box will trump all on  Derby Day!

IWR is indeed an impressive colt and so too are Friesan Fire and Pioneer Of The Nile.  However the hard statistical evidence of their respective performances in the Derby preps, in terms of the quality of competitors, split and final times, speed figures and Derby-pedigree-profile, so far show that they are not in the same stratosphere as Quality Road.  Those horses currently rank alongside Dunkirk but against QR the difference is clear.  You can spin the facts anyway you like but there is no evidence based upon performances that suggest that any other 3YO should rank above Quality Road.  Whereas Jason has been pretty lousy with his recent handicapping, he can be sympathized with for his rankings.

Jason: I'm sure you don't mind me calling a spade a spade, instead of an agricultural impliment, with reference to your recent handicapping record.

At this stage of the 3YO season there are only two other horses that could conceivably keep company with Quality Road doing splits of 45 and change for the first half mile and 1:10 and change for 6 furlongs and still be around to look him in the eye down the lane.  Big Drama and Rachel Alexander being absent from the Derby line up, the list should read: i) QR ..4)IWR 5)"killer" Willy 6)Friesan Fire 7)Dunkirk 8)Pioneer Of The Nile 9)Chocholate Candy 10)Musket Man.

Dray,

So another proposition eh? lol. Weren't you suppose to stop picking horses or quit horse racing by now based on your MANY failed props? I'm telling ya, you touting QR is only going to make his chances worse for the Derby. You already gave him a quarter crack.

curlin, I suggest you take your medication that the doctor prescribed. The delusional and grandiose thinking that you exhibit could get worse, requiring hospitalization.

I Want Revenge ran the last 5 furlongs of the Wood because he wasn't used for the first 4, and was nowhere close to the fast pace being set in front of him. He didn't beat much. Visually, the race may have appeared impressive to some but, the real story was the pace of the race and the weather/track condition they ran in, in my opinion. Sometimes, there are stories within stories, and what may appear obvious to many, may belie the real truth.

Let me digress for one moment. I could give you racing stories to support what I'm espousing but, you probably would not agree, even though I was directly part of it and saw it, up close and personal style, as they say. And, if you weren't there to see the races, the conditions, or know, beforehand, you would be oblivious to it, and never know, unless someone told you, as I have tried to. I wish you luck with your selection for the Derby. He has some talent. He has won some races but, he has not impressed me. I like Quality Road, as you know. But, with the quarter crack his performance and even entry for the Derby may be up in the air. Jimmy will not run him, if he is not fit and ready. Jimmy saw the quarter crack as soon as Quality Road was brought into the paddock for the winner's circle presentation. Jimmy, like his dad, doesn't miss much when it comes to horses. Far be it from me, to ask you to factor in Quality Road injuring himself during the running of the Florida Derby, and the type of race that he ran but, that would be too obvious. Aside from Quality Road not running, I would still rate several horses above, and expect that they will perform better than I Want Revenge. They would include in no particular order: Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and Desert Party.  

Lots of good info here people, and it sure is entertaining.  Even though Dray could lighten up a little, I have to agree with him on QR.  I just think he fits the mold of a Derby winner.  Big, strong colt that can run sustain a fast pace.  After watching the Florida Derby I don't see any problem with him getting the extra eighth.  I think he is the best horse, and he's Smarty 1/2 brother, gotta love that!!!!!  

Another thing, is in my opinion closers can have such a tough time in a 20 horse field.  Way to easy to get bottled up and never get a chance to even make their big run.  I was at the SA Derby last weekend and POTN was visually impressive.  This is on fluid, effortlessly running horse.  I hope he does well, b/c he deserves to do well.  

I think when it is all said and done QR on top, with POTN, & IWR right there chasing him down the home stretch.  CAN'T wait to see it.  

I really like the heart of Musket Man.  He just gets it done, a working mans horse.  

GO QR!!!!

I'll give you this nay nay, you make some outrageous promises. I'm willing to bet that your last one's involving the pink dress etc. will have some of these bloggers screaming for IWR come Derby Day. It won't be because of the horse but because of your condescending attitude towards anyone who dare question your choice whoever it happens to be on a given day. I suspect though that if IWR wins the Derby you will go back on your word anyway. Kinda like when you promised to never handicap another race in your life if your pick at another time lost his prep which he did. I can't even remember which pick that was since you have changed your mind so many times. On the other hand I may be wrong. It could be that you already have your dress picked out for the Belmont and intend to wear it no matter who wins the Derby.

To funny Draynay. If you got to wear that pink dress, I want to see photo's posted on this website deal?

I watch the SA derby and i wasnt impressed with any of those horses. POTN looks average to me at best the only horses that have that killer instinct are IWR, QR and killer willy if you look at those three horses with 250 yards to go or less they are absolutely flying! FF,Musket man, POTN and the rest of the field have zero chance come derby day!

Gotta' love when certain people post 4f-6f splits of "said" horses races and think if others can't run those same splits,then they're doomed and the race is over at that point,but needless to say,the race is 10f not 6f.And we know this much: IWR,FF,POTN(to name a few) have a much better stretch kick/acceleration down the lane than QR.If he runs those type of fractions in the Derby,he's toast because they won't be accomplished as easily as he did @ GP where he sat and took-over when the cheap speed retreated.In the Derby he's going to have to giddy-up from the get-go and not have the luxury of a "perfect trip" which he's accustomed to cuz' of the "quality speed" he'll face.Trust me,he won't run them off their feet without compromising his own chance in the race.And how will QR react to the jostling going into the 1st turn,or if he's not in his "usual" position down the back-side with all that kick-back dirt striking him?..No thanks,his inexperience to adversity won't bode well in the Stampede for the Roses.I'll stick with the hardened,experienced multiple 2-turning horses like IWR,POTN or FF..QR is not BB,and this isn't a sorry bunch of 3yo's like last year.

SLEW.em.ALL:  Closers that lack pace against horses of the calibre of QR have to do too much to get on terms and if they do, horses like QR changes gear on them a la Dunkirk (Florida Derby) and the race is over.  It is funny how many of the same people who ranked Dunkirk above Quality Road before the Florida Derby haven't learned their lesson and insist on putting IWR, FF and POTN above QR.  LOL.

Such handicapping make Ranagulzion look like a genius when all that's called for is just some objectivity and old fashioned honest assesment.  If your pick is a sentimental one, no problem, but don't pretend that its based on assessment of the facts.  

I'm old school. Rassmusen likes the breeding of POTN, IWR, but loves the breeding of CC. These are the only three horses in the derby that are weighted within 10 lbs of the highweight in the expermintal highweight for two year olds. These three are my exata and trifecta box.

Ranagulzion: IWR,FF & POTN are very tractable and swifter than what they've shown.It's just that they didn't have to go any faster in their preps.No problem.They're not one dimensional like QR is.And with a fast pace to run at,these 3 along with others running this weekend,will have a heckuva' shot at the softened-up QR once the real racing begins.

And QR didn't really "change gears" against Dunkirk.It was more Dunkirk tiring and not switching to his correct lead in the stretch.

Plus,your "handicapping objectivity & assessments" have been down the drain for awhile,Mr.Jose Adan....speak easy!

SLEW.em.ALL:  

Nice try.  I'll be first to admit that I touted "Jose" to my shame but how many of your selections have been lame?  I wouldn't do tit for tat with you since I was pretty bold on "Jose" and right now that horse has given you one-up on me.  I'll take my knock ...we all do, but I'll get even and my name aint stephen.  I dont want revenge just lots of Drama and Quality performances from Rachel Alexandra.

Wow, I'm no poet but you wouldn't even know it.

We all know that part of the fun of handicapping is that it is not an exact science and that any number of factors including some mysterious ones can affect the outcome of a race.  However my point is that a reasonable/ logical and honest assessment of the statistics of past performances of each horse lead to certain reasonable and logical conclusions.  If a handicapper is throwing into his calculations a great deal of sentiments and speculations that's a matter to be honest about.  No one should take issue with anybody's sentimental choice but don't deny the facts or try to do a "spin doctor's" number on them.  The known facts of past performances suggest that Quality Road is "el numero uno" going into the Derby.  True, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire and Pioneer Of The Nile could possibly be as good or even better but their performances on terra firma in our time-space world has yet to tell us that.  Those who say otherwise are loading up a lot of good wishes, sentiments and complex psychological factors into their choice.  That's alright but acknowledge it folkes.

SLEW: One last point.  It is Okay to be one dimensional if nobody can out run you.  Holy Bull looked one dimensional but could not be outrun down the lane, Spend A Buck seemed one dimensional and could not be caught most of the time so too was the great Dr. Fager.  QR isn't really one dimensional according to his trainer.  He just has a very high cruising speed and when roused he sprints pretty darn fast.  IWR, FF and POTN would need to get a jump on him to outrun him.  Isn't the lesson of Dunkirk very clear?  The extra furlong of the Derby will be no problem based upon both his performances todate and pedigree (especially on his Dam's side).  Think on these things Bro.

Lamarv 7/4 looks like you got the Cash Call Trifecta there with CC, POTN, and IWR.  Little has changed since then.

#'s #'s #'s!!! Quality Road has won one two turn race and the track was very much to his favor that day---anyone who says he has the #'s advantage based on that one two turn race is blowing smoke! He MAY be the best horse--but that is not yet obvious!

Rana: what happened to Holy Bull in the Derby?..plus SAB only won when he was loose on the lead.

This is getting stagnant,so let's move on after this: You take QR who has only 4 starts,one 2-turn race to his credit,has had perfect trips sitting behind cheap speed and inflated #'s @ GP...And I'll go with experienced Bulldogs who have proven themselves multiple times going 2-turns(1 1/4miles will not be a problem),can be placed anywhere during a race without compromising their chances,and have a stronger kick down the stretch...Bottom line: QR will see Real Racehorses in the Derby and not the sprinters speed he's used to.He will not have an easy trip like he's accustomed to.Notice he barely beat a tired,inexperienced Dunkirk who didn't change leads in the stretch.Trust me,when either IWR,POTN or FF come-up and eyeball him,they'll scoot right on by.These 3 have a solid foundation/bottom underneath them,they will not "hang" like Dunkirk did.All 3 are better than the "allowance winner",no disrespect to Dunkirk,but if QR barely beat him,on a speed-favoring track no-less,imagine what he's up against when facing these Monsters...you're blinded by your wishful thinking ways buddy.We'll shall see.

 'TIS  Great To See THE Entheuseasium  in our MARCH TO THE KY DERBY  and all that it means to US--as HANDICAPPERS/DREAMERS/HORSELOVERS/EXTRAVERTS OF THE MILE!!<< and all around GOOD GUYS.The OWNERS 'think' they have a shot at the GLORY/TOP 5 MONEY CASHER AS THEY ENTER THEIR BEST IN THE DERBY QUALIFYING SPECTACULARS,Coast to Coast & D'bI too. If they are as objective and honest and gregarious as WE ARE, THE REWARDS "ALONG THE WAY" COULD BE SATISFACTION ENOUGH TO TRY TO JUDGE THE BEHAVIOR OF AN ANIMAL AT A GIVEN TIME ON A SPECIAL DAY.10 furlongs is tough to RUN when an ANIMAL IS GOING LESS IN THE RUN-UP & YET 'BRED' FOR MORE and to be just A FEW YARDS FASTER THAN ALL OF THE OTHERS!

   If NOT it could be like trying to judge which jar of SMUCKERS is 'better--best'  than 3 thousand other STRAWBERRY--24oz. jars. I think a mid-odds entry will be in the top 3 finishers. And that only 3 or 4 will be in contention at the 9th/10th pole That axtra furlong is a deal-breaker as is  the guy who wants more than a final offer from the auto dealership will allow for his trade-in. So why WILLY around. GO WITH YOUR GUT and DON'T OVERLOAD the PURSE>  I like IWR,D, FR, & CC TO BE IN the TOP 6.. JJ maybe With WILLY and  #5 too  & BRIGHT YELLOW>>...

 Thats HANDICAPPING<<<>>>!! VAN

Like your #1 choice Jason after Papa Clem takes the Arkansas.  POTN.  How good is he?  He seems to have beaten all the west and now those that have chosen to run from him as well (Chocolate Candy 2x, IWR 2x, Papa Clem 1x).  What angle are handicappers left with?  That he is too slow (using depressed Beyers) or that he does not like dirt?  I guess a case can be made for FF or QR.  A repeat on Derby Day makes him dangerous.  I think my super fecta is now complete.  POTN, Chocolate Candy, IWR, and Papa Clem.