Quality Road. After that it's a crapshoot for second.

FF is my pick - he is sitting on top of a big race and along with DK is the most push button horse in the race. I see FF passing QR in the stretch and holding off DK for the win. I think IWR is due to bounce and POTN is a toss also for top 3. DK will be hard to beat however if he gets a clean path to make his final move and will have more air in him this time.

I know i probably sound like a nut case for not picking QR or IWR, but my top three in this order are POTN, FF and Dunkirk. I'm banking on POTN's versitility to go towards dirt, plus i'm also hoping that he will go with the recent trend of Cali horses liking dirt. Hopefully, and i think he will like dirt enough to beat his foe IWR again. FF has woken up this year, and with jones as the trainer he'll be one to watch. Dunkirk reminds me so much of Curlin. Yet again, like Curlin, he's a very talented horse who was born into a very deep and talented crop.

I have to admit I am glad to see Mr. Hot Stuff get in.  That being said this has to be one of the weakest fields since 2005.  There is one great horse, 4 very good horses, and 15 muts that simply do not belong in the race.  I have never seen such slow times heading into the Derby and the lack of any true speed means we will be watching the Quality Road show for 2 minutes the first Saturday in May.  Square Eddie is still going to run ? What is Win Willy and Advice going to do except add to Pletcher's losing streak. Giant Oak, Mine that Bird, and Flying Private ?  Are you kidding me? Look... Quality Road is training well and should improve going 2 turns for a second time.  Any step forward puts him way above the others.  They better hope QR gets lost on his way to the Derby because this sorry bunch couldn't catch Quality Road with rockets on their backs.  Hitting the Super should not be too hard there are 15 horses who couldn't hit the board unless they jumped they jumped the fence. One thing I have decided is Musket Man is going on my ticket.  I watched every race of his and this horse has a drive to win that you have to love.  When others give up this horse will not.  I will be shocked if he does not hit the board.

Mr. Hot Stuff , a full brother of Colonel John , has been begging for more distance and the mile and a quarter distance will put him in the winners circle May 2nd. Corey Nakatani in the irons and Eoin Harty are the top connections for this colt .

You're right LDP you do sound like a nut case.  Do you think Quality Road is going to forget how to run a 135 mile ?  He runs the first quarter in 23 seconds and runs the next mile in 137 and the race is over in 2 minutes.  FF is too slow.  You don't win the Derby running 113 for 6 furlongs and his mile times are very weak...is he going to suddenly wake up on Derby Day a faster horse?  You Friesan Fire people are going to be VERY unhappy on Derby Day.

Ya know what? That Dunkirk just put in a nice work and I'll bet he's the sleeper in the Derby.

With the pace set my Quality Road I see Chocolate Candy able to handle the distance. Pioneer of the Nile and General Quarter will be right there.

Quality Road has the tactical speed and the drive to win. Musket Man (Draynay is right) has a will to win that is very impressive and he is not afraid to split horses late or look another in the eye. He has got several gears. There are about 4-5 nice horses, about 3 or 4 others that could factor, and the rest have no prayer.

QR should be the favorite to win if his hoof is ok. And so far, so good.

Draynay- Remember last year? This is only my second Kentucky Derby and I know I do not have any experience but I think it looks a strong field. I think Quality Road or IWR will win but I am rooting for FF, GQ and Quality Road.

Draynay- I too think Quality Road is the horse to beat but to blow the others off as inferior is stretching it too far.  I think that there are 5-6 horses at least who stand a good chance of giving Quality all he wants.  I love MR HOT STUFF-so glad he got in.  Can't wait to see what he can do at a mile and a quarter, but closers could run into major traffic problems.  I think General Quarters is certainly one to keep in mind-remember he's a gray.  Dunkirk-who knows?  Can't wait to see how this race unfolds and who Steve Haskins picks as the best work.

since closers don't have a habit of winning the derby, I want to keep with Chocolate Candy, until I see him work badly on dirt.

Friesan Fire Number one, Nothing will change that...

Stll have to wait for Post Position's and track condition(Hope it rains for three days straight, then Fire will win by five lengths, lol)...

But right now,F.Fire, C.Candy, General Quarters are my to three...

Dray, I am also including MM in my tickets.He clearly knows what it means to win a race. I do have a SERIOUS question for you. Does it scare you at all that Jerkins said QR "lost some flesh" the week after the Florida Derby?

I Want Revenge. I've loved him since his second in the CashCall, but he doesn't like the synthetic in the Robert Lewis. When he got to dirt......well you all saw him. My second choice in QR then POTN

longwaytomay.... Jerkins is no Dutrow and he seems to want to reflect the spotlight instead of standing under it.  After the FOY and Florida Derby Quality Road did lose a little weight but I think on Derby Day you will see a fully rested Quality Road ready to fire. What would really scare me is choosing another horse to win the Derby knowing full well he is not as fast as Quality Road... now THAT would scare me.

To all you Friesan Fire fans please save your tickets after the Derby. We will be having a paper drive and your donation will be greatly appreciated.

LOL, of course that doesn't scare Draynay because he is incapable of being objective about the horse.

The one thing I do agree on is that there are a few horses in here that don't belong, but I'm not about to complain about it.  The more throwout horses there are in the field, the more dumb money there will be in the pools.

Where is Travis to tell us about Square Eddie's winning performance last weekend?  Oh wait, ooops, he didn't win and got his doors blown off by 2 horses who had never won any stakes before and were eligible for NW2X conditions.

LDP, you are nuts! There are more than 6 horses that have run the last three furlongs in under 38 seconds in their prep races, a good indicator of talent and getting the distance in the Derby. This is not a weak field, but a very talented one, and there are several horses that are more than capable to win. My pick is still Desert Party. He will be forgotten and his odds will be a nice 12 to 18-1. Desert Party is the only horse that closed all day at Nad Al Sheba in Dubai, and he is sitting on a big race. If there is no pace factor, then Regal Ransom will go in as the rabbit. Top 5 are Desert Party, Quality Road, I want Revenge, Dunkirk, and Firesian Fire

It is embarassing that so few on this board can analyze pedigree. Quality Road is no Smarty Jones and his speed will not carry. I Want Revenge is a total toss on pedigree and he has already peaked. That leaves Dunkirk and Friesan Fire with the best combination of pedigree and speed figures, but I will pick West Side Bernie to win plus boxing the three.

Alexaso, I do believe QR is a Smarty Jones!! If you would take a look at QR pedigree you would see he has MORE stamina influence than Smarty. Middle number of dosage index represents ability to run the classic distance. Smarty has an 8 and QR has 11. If he is healthy and does not draw a poor post, Quality Road is the winner!! West Side Bernie? You must like the name, the jock, trainer or owner. How could you like the horse.

Dray,

    Just Curious, Two things, What will you say if and when "Friesan Fire" wins and "Quality Road" doesn't?, Will you give actually praise to "Friesan Fire" for being the best horse and the class of the field OR will you make up excuses(I.E., Quarter Crack, Track Conditions, Traffic) why "Quality Road" didn't win, Just Curious...

Alexaso- I appreciate your comments about pedigree, and I'm sure you know much more about it than I do, but why do you think QR's speed won't carry?  I agree IWR may have already peaked but what don't you like about his pedigree?  I would be very interested to hear your comments.

"Friesan Fire":

Sired by A.P. Indy, Bollinger, by Dehere

FF's sire's sire : Seattle Slew

Seattle Slew's sire and dam : Bold Reasoning, My Charmer

Bold Reasoning's sire and dam: Boldnesian, Reason to Earn

My Charmer's sire and dam :

Poker, Fair Charmer

FF's sire's dam :

Weekend Surprise

Weekend Surprise's sire and dam: Secretariat, Lassie Dear

Secretariat's sire and dam :

Bold Ruler, Somethingroyal

Lassie Dear's sire and dam: Buckpasser, Gay Missile

FF's dam's sire:

Dehere

Dehere's sire and dam:

Deputy Minister, Sister Dot

Deputy Minister's sire and dam: Vice Regent, Mint Copy

Sister Dot's sire and dam: Secretariat, Sword Game

FF's dam's dam :

Bint Marscay

Bint Marscay's sire and dam: Marscay, Eau d'Etoile

Marscay's sire and dam :

Biscay, Heart of Market

Eau d'Etoile's sire and dam:

Sir Tristram, Fille d'Etoile

    Doubters of Friesan Fire’s potential classic stamina may take note of the fact that he is bred on the same A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister combination that is found in the pedigree of the champion filly Rags to Riches.  She, of course, defeated subsequent two-time Horse of the Year Curlin in a stirring rendition of the classic, 12-furlong Belmont Stakes (G1). That kind of classic form is difficult to dispute, as there is no sterner test of racing class and stamina on the American racing calendar.

    Friesan Fire, even if he doesn't exactly know it. Pedigree is a measuring stick used to judge potential ability on the racetrack. Parentage is mostly planned, dictated by matching winning sires with winning dams, who were fathered by winning sires and dams.

    A jackpot chip off the old block is, obviously, not always achieved. It is more often not achieved than it is. Sometimes, like in the case of Friesan Fire, one is hard pressed to understand how a product of such parentage ever could take a wrong stride.

Larry Jones:

     “I’ve learned to just do what we want to do,” said Jones on Sunday, emphasizing that he has no problems with the layoff. “(Friesan Fire’s) skin is looking like it’s ready to pop.”

   Experts like Friesan Fire’s pedigree. A.P. Indy won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The dam’s family ran 2-mile races in Australia.

    “He’s much better-suited to the distance than any of the last two horses I brought into this”  

    “Pedigree-wise, and just the way he acts, the distance is going to be more in his favor. The farther he goes, the better it’s going to suit him.”

    After what happened last year, Friesan Fire and  Jones WILL take home this year’s roses...

    “We’ll try it one more time”...

Billy Empire,

    Where and when did i ever say this was a weak feild? I have only been saying that it is a deep and talented field, maybe better than the one in 07. You maybe are getting me confused with Draynay. Please check the names of the posts before you go accusing people wrongly.

Alexaso--I, too, am going to ask why Quality Road's "speed will not carry" as compared to Smarty's? Would really like to see your reasoning/analysis.

You take "Giant Oak" off the Derby List, He will be pointed to a campaign on turf, trainer Chris Block said Monday.

Dray,

    Another interesting tidbit, NO HORSE since Exterminator(in 1918) has won the Kentucky Derby with only four career starts. Quality Road has only four career starts........

I just had to say something about Mr. Hot Stuff I love this horse and I am extremely glad he got in even if it is at #20 O really hope Eoin Harty lets him try 1 1/4 I think he'll run extremely well and make up for Colonel John's traffic trouble last year as long as he #1 gets a decent post and #2 breaks well out of the gate and gets out traffic. I think he's the dark horse coming into this, I hope they give him a shot because he always tries hard

Thanks to Jason and this wonderful Bloodhorse Blog I would like to set a few things straight.

1.) I was wrong about Dunkirk and he proved to be a very good horse in the Florida Derby.  He is on my ticket and I expect him to do very well with Prado aboard.

2.) Maybe some of you did not watch the Florida Derby but Quality Road had NO PROBLEM running 200 yards past the wire in the Florida Derby so he has already gone 1 1/4.  If you are expecting him to hit the wall at 1 1/8th in the Derby...good luck with that let me know how it works out for you.

3.) Freisan Fire fans are starting to get under my skin.  The horse all year has yet to run under 113 for 6 furlongs and he has never gone beyond 1 1/16th AND he is off for nearly 2 months going in ???

HE HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING AT ALL.

You could make him 500 to 1 and I would not bet a nickel on him to win.

4.) Why on earth would ANY horse want to take the lead after watching what Quality Road did to them. Ask the 2 horses he stalked in the FOY and FD how it worked out for them....

5.) There is nothing wrong AT ALL with Quality Roads PROVEN pedigree to suggest there is makes your words worth less.

6.) The lack of speed coming from the California horses this year is more than enough reason to toss most of them.  I will have two closers on the bottom of my tickets in Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy.

7.) IWR is a beaten horse that came east for softer competition and found it in NY.  Without his cough syrup this horse will be an average mid packer.  Those who choose to bet on him I feel sorry for you.  The quick fractions will melt the pretender and he will still be running when I cash my tickets.

8.) I will leave you with this thought... Secretariat was a big, fast colt bred in Virgina... Quality Road is a big, fast colt bred in Virgina...

I see alot of people are selecting Mr. Hot Stuff because he can get the distance. Not to say that this horse is not talented, but he'll need to step up big time to hit the board in this one. I think the more prudent is to let this horse come into his own and go through the Hollywood Park 3 year old series of races and see how he develops. Now with the BC Marathon extended a bit, maybe they can point him to distances of that nature until he's grown up a little. People use the being the brother to Colonel John factor as an excuse that he'll do well in the derby, but we've seen this time n time again how horses with the same bloodlines don't turn out the same as their other siblings. Colonel John was well accomplished at this point while Mr. Hot Stuff is still eligible for a nwx1. Not only that, we're not going to get the suicidal 2005 pace in this years running. Too many questions to be answered for my taste.

Greg J., I love FF pedigree too. I just can't see where he has run fast enough to win. Maybee he is sitting on a career race, I don't know. I would love to see Larry J. smilin on May 2.

Karen in Texas, I think Alexaso has actually looked at Quality Road's pedigree and can't justify his earlier statement!

I don't know why so many people are hung up about Friesan Fire's 7-week freshening. After all, horses returning from layoffs win a fair percentage of the time. For example, Seattle Smooth won the Bed o' Roses on Saturday after being off since last September (seven months).

Friesan Fire had an excellent mile work on Sunday, then galloped out another half mile before Saez was able to pull him up. (I'm disappointed no video is available.) Larry Jones said FF wasn't even blowing hard after the work.

Rick Porter (FF's co-owner) posted on his farm's website that Friesan Fire "started out very relaxed and in reasonable fractions, and finished up strongly going the last 3/8ths in :36 flat. He worked the mile in 1:39.60. Hard Spun had done the same mile in 1:42."

    As of right now, post positions still to be decided, I'm going with Dunkirk.  A slower pace will be in his favor more so than Quality Road.  He won't have to run ridiculous middle fractions to be in contention, which will set him up for the stretch run on a track that will play fair instead of to a speed bias.  He'll lay closer to the pace, make a big move on the turn and pounce down the stretch.  I would play QR, IWR & Friesan Fire for 2nd and put those 3 in the 3rd spot along with Chocolate Candy, WSB, Hold Me Back & Desert Party.  This is what I would play if forced to wager on the race right now.

    To dray, right now, according to speed figures & consistency, this field does not appear to be as weak as last year.  Only time will tell that, because we won't even start to be able to gauge how good this crop is until later this year and into the next year when they start to take on older horses.  You say this field is the weakest since 2005.  Well, I remember the best horse in that crop by far was Afleet Alex yet he wasn't able to win the Derby.  Could that possibly happen to the horse you consider to be the best of this crop by far?

    Also, I'm not quite understanding all those who say Musket Man has the will to win and they like the way he split horses, but still refuse to give IWR his due after his last race.  That doesn't make any sense to me.

    Anyway, there is a good chance to have yet another Derby "myth" proved wrong this year.  Dunkirk (never raced at 2), Friesan Fire (7 week layoff & never further than 1 1/16) & Desert Party (Dubai route) all stand legitimate chances of taking the roses.  If anything, this will be an interesting Derby.

    On a side note, I would also wager a big Oaks/Derby double on RA/Dunkirk and back that up with a small double of Fitz Just Right/Dunkirk.  I think Fitz Just Right is the sleeper in the Oaks & has the best chance to upset RA.  She's been training great, her sire loved 9f and she will be overlooked by many especially considering she's not even considered by many to be the best 3 year old filly in the barn (Justwhistledixie).  RA/FJR & Gozzip Girl for the exacta in the Oaks.

Top Five: Friesan Fire, Musket Man,General Quarters,Hold Me Back and Pioneer of the Nile

Oh my, you are all so quick to reply. I am an old man, and it is hard to keep up with all you youngins. I Want Revenge and Quality Road have similar evenly balanced pedigrees for speed and stamina. Analyzing past derby winners shows that they have a great weighting for one or the other. Smarty Jones for example having a greater weighting for speed. In the last 16 runnings, only Street Sense had a "balanced" pedigree, and in the last 30 Derbys only 4 winners had that same profile.  I Want Revenge reminds me very much of Read The Footnotes in pedigree profile and speed figures while Quality Road reminds me a great deal of Brother Derek.

Dray,

    "Quality Road" does have a very impressive Pedigree, Second only to "Friesan Fire"(In my opinion), I will give you that

BUT

To mention "Quality Road" With the GREATEST HORSE OF ALL TIME, "Secretariat"(Just because they are Big and born in Virginia??) is way beyond the realm of Reality.....

PLEASE...

He has only run FOUR times, Like I said up above, No horse has won the Derby with only four starts since 1918.

I read today that Dubai is probably going to run both their horses;if so Regal Ransom will probably add some needed pace to the race.  Does that change anybodys' opinion on who that favors?    

TREAD

Travis here, after SE lost I'm at the same place a lot of others have been recently, hiding under my desk. I picked QR in Florida Derby, Ole Fashioned getting beat by Papa Clem with Summer Bird in the Mix, Best bet of the year was GQ in the Bluegrass,with HMB in the mix, all of this was stated by myself over and over in the blogs, but I only get pointed out when my hunch was completey off on SE, and I admit it was a bad call.

Draynay

You are a smart guy if you could only let go of C.C., you talk about slow times for races, please take a look at C.C.'s times??? Are you nuts???

Draynay,

You may disagree with me, but I am insulted that you would call my words worthless. My first Derby memory is listening to Citation win with my father. My first Derby win was with Northern Dancer also on the radio....Unfortunately I was not there, but my best friend was there and we went in together. I vividly remember the entire Secretariat Experience...were you even alive? Please don't compare Quality Road to him until he has won the triple crown.

Congrats on your wins Travis.  You are the one who started talking smack about throwing out SE being sub-standard handicapping, when in fact it was the correct move.  Having vision as to when to throwout bad favorites is what separates the good handicappers from the bad, and if you cashed a bet on General Quarters I would have thought you'd understand a concept like that.  

So yes, I don't care what you've done in the past, if you want to run your mouth about how great a favorite is and talk down to people who have the vision to throw him out, then you'd better be prepared to field some backlash when it doesn't happen, regardless of your history.

Travis L,

   I don't think you were totally off. SE made a very very big run on the turn, he just came up a little short in the end. I was encouraged by the race, and feel his owners should probably wait till the preakness or Belmont, running him in the peter pan, to get him fit then go to the belmont and let him rip. He's a classy horse and he showed that by running that well after being off for over three months.

draynay you are a goofball!!

You are now hinting at comparison of Quality Road to Secratariat? It's been less than a year since you spent considerable effort bashing Secratariat. Some of your most repeated lines were Secratariat beat nobody,Secratariat faced small fields, Onion was a nobody who whipped Secratariat, blah blah blah. Would you get a grip on yourself and join us in the real world? Oh it's not all pink and rosey like your fantasy world but at least here things don't change depending on who we are arguing for today like your world does. You might have a sliver of credibility if you would stick to your guns instead of re-creating a new arguement when your old one doesn't fit anymore.  

You call this a weak field? Compared to last year these are lightyears ahead. Outside of the Big Ole Browneye last years field included only 3 other runners who had topped 100 on the Beyer scale at 1 1/16 or longer prior to the Derby. Now that's slow. That was the fewest number in many many years. This year we are looking at half a field who have accomplished it. The Bris Speed Figs for this years hopefuls are just as far ahead of last years field as the Beyer Figs. There just weren't many from last years crop who were much good at a distance of ground especially on that first Saturday in May.

Both of the Dubai horses are running, but Gaint Oak will not. That means Summer Bird is in the 20 spot. Join in the Dance has a good chance of getting in now.

Draynay,

You are always so positive about things, as though you can read the future.  You were right about BB last year for the Derby and the Preakness.  No question that he was the best 3 year old last year but he came up short in the Belmont which you were also positive about.

This year's field is far more competitive.  There are better horses this year and there are at least 6 or 7  horse who could take this race.  It all depends on how it plays out.  The best horse does not always win and we all know that.  Whether or not QR is the best is yet to be seen and certainly the Derby is a way of proving that.  He may very well win.  Winning Colors won wire to wire but 49er was only a head behind.  You give no credit to IWR.

This horse has been amazing.  FF is also under your radar.  You totally throw out the CA horses and I understand that but none of us know how they will take to dirt.  They may like it like IWR does.  Baffert knows what he's doing.  The Derby, in my opinion, is the hardest to handicap.  There are so many things affecting the race and I still think there will be an upset.

Your last comment surprised me about QR and Secretariat both being big, fast colts both bred in Virginia.  As I recall, you didn't think too much of Secretariat and didn't think his record breaking Belmont was anything since there were only 4 horses in the race so why are you comparing him with QR?

I'm going with Friesan Fire as my first choice and then as a long shot choice Mr Hot Stuff, and I am going to box an exacta with Mr Hot Stuff & Friesan Fire.  Love both horses.

Friesan Fire ran a 139.60 mile ? Wow I bet that put the fear into Quality Road who runs 135 like its nothing.  All FF has to do is run 22 lengths faster and he will be right up there with QR.  

BTW ... you can toss Papa Clem he is one tired horse and his work shows he is no where near ready for what is coming up in the Derby.

Let me give you some to toss right now.  Anything with the word Willy or Bird in it.  You can toss Square Eddie and I Want Revenge. You can also toss Advice and Flying Private.... who does that leave ?  You call this a strong field of contenders? Lol...

Regal Ransom will set the honest fast pace, which will hurt Quality Road, who needs a softer pace, If there is a softer pace then Quality Road will probably take the lead and then we will have to see who will take the chance and challenge him, If Quality leads due to softer pace then that could be trouble for every horse, since he does have MAYBE the best natural speed, but I see Regal Ransom setting the pace, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Quality Road, General Quarters right behind him at 5/8 then everyone will make their move, and my guess is as good as everyone's, but Friesan Fire will outgun, outlast everyone down the stretch and take home the Run for the Roses....

IWR is the horse to beat, easily.  Who might?  POTN, GQ, HMB. MM Might clunk up, too.  QR will wilt.  He beat DK over a lightning fast strip with the easiest of trips.  Pop and stop.  FF Definitely hasn't beaten anyone.  PC, who won AK Derby beat injured and bad horses.  When was the last time a LA Derby winner took the derby?  BTW>>> GQ had a come home time of a tick under :36, fastest of any..and galloped out like he'd go round again and gets Leparoux...IWR and POTN are the real deals too. Dunkirk is too light on experience and is no Big Brown..by a distance.

Quality Road wins the Derby unless the stalkers get fried by a Songandaprayer (2001) or Spanish Chestnut (2005) ridiculous pace.  I hate to agree with someone as obnoxious in his writings as Draynay but I think he is right.  I think Quality Road is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.  I do note that I believe the overall field to be strong.  There are some quality horses here (FF, IWR, MM, PC, Dunkirk).  

@ dray

8.) I will leave you with this thought... Secretariat was a big, fast colt bred in Virgina... Quality Road is a big, fast colt bred in Virgina..

Wow, dray, way to pull off one of the more ridiculous logical fallacies. How many other big fast Virginia-breds won the Kentucky Derby?

I'm not a bettor so my picks are based on sentiment. I'd love to see Mr. Hot Stuff come out of nowhere to catch Friesan Fire at the wire.

Im looking for I Want revenge,Dunkirk,and Summer Bird to make it big in KY. Though in my heart I would love to see Win Willy race and win. Hahha..but hye ya never know I guess....:)

I really like this field Draynay. You have some pretty nice horses here even if they aren't Man O'War or Secretariat. But I have to say your posts make me laugh. You have a good sense of humor, rockets strapped on their backs indeed. My picks so far in this order:

QR, POTN, Friesan Fire, IWR, Dunkirk

On another note. I hope they find out what happened with those horses who were posioned in Fla., and if it was deliberate, I vote life in prison, no parole.

Draynay, I had BB as the clear winner last year also but QR is no BB and will not dominate this field imo. Imo the chance of QR winning this race is about as likely as your Smooth Air will be place or show 100% in the Derby prediction last year. I lean to FF winning but I am even more positive that DK will beat out QR this time out barring any major traffic problems.

I live in the town where the polo horses died here in FL and they are thinking some hay fungus or mold may have done it because it was all the same group's horses. Wont know for sure for a while however. I guess horses are real delicate when it comes to some forms of it they say.

The Dubai horses are really throwing a monkey wrench in this for me.

Have not seen either of them run,have no feel for them. I think it is B.S. that they can even run in the race.

Owner has more money than all of us put together,built his own track,filled him with is own horses and made his own stakes races. If I am wrong correct me.

I am on QR right now with POTN,FF & IWR will drop one of them.

Will have Muscket Man,SummerBird and West Side Bernie as my bombers in the tri/super.

Got to invest a little $ in this race look at the history of the payouts.

Good Luck to us all  

ALL you HATERS are getting on MY Nerves...Friesan Fire is the EPITOME of Class...Speed and most notably Pedigree of ANY in this years crop. Layoff???? Don't Scare ME either, does BARBARO come to mind...Just like the G.O.A.T.(The BID) THE FIRE will be A'Blaaaze on the 1st Saturday in MAY!!! Not a threat... A  PROMISE!!!!!!!!

Wow did Dray just say that what QR tracked in the FD was somehow top quality, former claimer, 78-1, that was some tough as nails perfomance by QR...just let me know who QR has ever beat?  He lost to JoJo, oh my.

Dray- How could you toss Willy and the Birds?  How could you, Man?  At least birds can fly,but what about poor Willy?  Just think about what your doing to the sport-it will never be the same!!!

SPEEDBALL and GREG J:  Quality road is the only horse in the Derby that does not need any help in terms of pace from any other horse.  He is the controlling speed in the race.  That doesn't mean that he has to lead but with Johnny V on board looking for his first Kentucky Derby win he'll ensure that Regal Ransom's speed offers cold comfort to the stalkers and closers at a very brisk clip.  Then he'll reel that one in on the far turn and be at the head of business at the quarter pole.  Regal Ransom is an improving pacey type that will only give way grudgingly but he has yet to be pressed by the likes of Quality Road.  

I tell you folkes Todd Pletcher does not want Dunkirk to face Quality Road again without his rabbit because without a rabbit ther is no way he can "join in the dance" or have a shot at "taking the points".  Seriously, if Join In the Dance makes the field Quality roads chances of scoring by a city block increases 'cause that rabbit will take out Regal Ransom for him ...see what I mean ... when you are the controlling speed and nobody but your jock can control your speed or dare look you in the eye...that's Quality Road for ya ...the winner of the 135th Kentucky Derby.  

Although I have painted the picture quite clearly it will still be a thing of beauty to see this horse squander a truly talented field.  Then many will realise that this thoroughbred has inherited some of the finest qualities that are in his pedigree, such as the imposing muscular structure and lung capacity of Secretariat, the speed of Eusive Quality, the push button response and gameness of Alydar, the propensity to win of Nijinsky, and the stamina/carrying speed capability of Kobla(full sister to 1997 BC Distaff winner Ajina, daughter of 1 1/2ml specialist Strawberry Road).

Folks this is a special one and this is a vintage crop.  Consider that we haven't seen the best of the flying filly Rachel Alexandra yet and there is Big Drama waiting for a pitch battle in Baltimore with the derby winner ...among others ...Let the Classics begin.

Alexaso,

While you bring up an interesting statistic, it is hard to penalize quality road for having a dosage index of approximately 2.45.  It represents a perfect breeding opportunity for 1 1/4 miles.  Secondly, it is important to realize that most dosage indices are weighted towards the genetic strains of the sire.  However, maybe you are onto something.  Big Brown-3.67 obviously sprinter bloodstock, Sreet Sense 2.14-fairly balanced as you mention, Barbaro 1.81-weighted toward stamina via Dynaformer/Roberto, but in my opinion the DI discounts too much that his damsire was one of the best sprinters there was in Carson City.  Unfortunately using that methodology for handicapping this years derby, you would have to throw out Quality Rd, Dunkirk, IWR, Freisan Fire, Choc. Can, Regal Ransom, Mr Hot Stuff, General Quarters and probably Papa Clem, due to balanced pedigree.  That would leave Musket Man, Desert Party, and POTN, who all have speed weighted DI's, and ironically are all closers.  Bottom line is I geuss that is why they run the race.

Listen up ! Rem.2005, Giacomo 1st,Closing Argument 2nd, Afleet Alex 3rd, Don't Get Mad 4th......Well, take notes all....2009, 4 years later.... 1-GENERAL QUARTERS  2-CHOCOLATE CANDY  3-I WANT REVENGE or QUALITY ROAD  4-DUNKIRK or DESERT PARTY. Don't be surprised if it happens in 2009.  (Big Gr/roan 20/1 + Closing past a 70/1 + - , past a favorite 4/1 + _ & leaving a 10/1 + _ coming in 4th  !!! It can happen, it's been 4 years, LOOK FOR A BIG GR/ROAN, first at the finish........

Pioneer of the Nile, Flying Private, F--Fire, and Dunkirk. Tri boxed, and a few dollard on Flying Private for the win.

You can all dance around it all you want but that facts are at 2 turns Quality Road can run a 135 mile and your horse can't.  Its that simple. You stay too close to that time you have nothing left... if you are back 10 lengths you don't have enough time to pass him at the wire.  You can't win.

Alexaso:

I agree with you on the whole pedigree thing of QR having a pedigree.

I also saw someone said that you shouldn't even compare Smarty's pedigree and QR's. This tidbit: both are inbred with bold ruler, who we know was an amazing sire and Derby winner. Also, both bottom pedigrees scream stamina, but you have to have an influx of speed. Both In Reality lines and and close-up Strawberry Road need strong speed. one things for sure: QR's going to get the distance and carry that speed like it's a sprint race.

Someone else also said something about FF getting a route of ground. He does have a classic pedigree, it is eye catching, but even sometimes a pedigree can fail a horse. Maybe he CAN get the route, but the question is, how fast he is and if he's going to be able to keep up. he's had smooth sailing his 3YO year because the races have had no pace. His pedigree screams stamina, just like Rags. difference is the drive they had. When it comes to a fight, FF has laid down the gontlet. Rags was a down and dirty type, like Musket Man. Not anything like Rags.

IWR (who has been my pick since he broke his maiden) has AP Indy in his pedigree also. But, with teh exception of Turn-To relatively close in the pedigree, blushing groom is in a nice spot, and absolutely NO NORTHERN DANCER. Which is hard to fine.

IWR is the only Pedigree i've seen with no In-breeding, which has its pros and cons. it'll be interesting to see the results come may.

Sometimes race results seem to have numbers that just go together like 7& 11, 6 & 9, 1 & 12 (craps), 3,4 &7 (3+4=7) and sometimes it can be names that seem to go together. This years Derby might gives us:

Mine that Bird, Summer Bird, Flying Private

or

Desert Party, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire

or

Chocolate Candy, Win Willy (like Willy Wonka), Mr. Hot Stuff

or

I Want Revenge, Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back

or

Musket Man, General Quarters, Dunkirk

anyway you get the idea, what is strange about this exercise (yes it is very strange, I know) is it really makes me realize how difficult this race is to pick, and when I look at these groups of three names, I can actually see some of them as possible, without being a total stretch.

It's QR's race to lose. I am going to pull a crazy right now and list how the horses will finish 1 - 20:

1. Quality Road

2. Freisan Fire

3. Regal Ransom

4. Summer Bird

5. Chocolate Candy

6. Musket Man

7. Flying Private

8. Dunkirk

9. Desert Party

10. I Want Revenge

11. West Side Bernie

12. Hold Me Back

13. Square Eddie

14. Win Willy

15. Mine That Bird

16. Papa Clem

17. Advice

18. General Quarters

19. Mr. Hot Stuff

20. Pioneerof the Nile

Bretzky99,

You are following me...one minor correction, Big Brown's dosage is 1.67 with thirtysomething points.  He was the most obvious pick I have ever seen with that pedigree combined with his speed figures.  Using this logic, you are correct you would be left with Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, and Desert Party, but also Dunkirk and Friesan Fire would be exceptions to be included.  I incorporated speed figures into this logic starting in 2001, and the only winner that didn't fit was Street Sense.  It has been solid for me so I am sticking with it.

Stick with multiple graded stakes winners.  There are no sleepers here.  It is not Dunkirk's time. This leaves QR, POTN, CC, IWR, etc.  Also don't bet anything that has not run first on synthetics. Take all of the synthetic runners and add a 10-15 positive spin to their Beyers.  

I love everyone thinking about the derby. First of all, Dray thoughts about QR are hard to avoid. He is a deadly horse and as I analyze him, he is hard to disregard. Also, all the FF fans, including myself, see all his upside in pedigree training and determination. He has also beaten derb prep winner. POTN is strating to scare me. As I analyze how horses who have ran at Santa Anita have faired on dirt tracks, still could not beat this horse. I know CJ did not do well in the derby but it was a different surface last year. IWR is a animal that is very patient. Place him anywhere and you still have a feeling he has a chance of winning. GQ is a tough competitor.He just grinds out wins. He won the Sam F and the blue grass. He is hard to disregard. These five horses are my top five and i haven't figure out how to separate as of yet. Thank goodness there are two weeks to the derby.

JASON:  Common Pal, are you telling me that you're now fascinated with PREDICT's hocus pocus way of making your derby pick?

If you cry out "Hold Me Back Papa Clem, I Want Revenge" I will understand ...given the fate of your previous selections.  Anyway I hope you spot the winner this time ...looking out for your pick.

Don't say that I'm picking on you because your response to PREDICT was an invitation I couldn't turn down. LOL.

Think this crop has a chance to be one of the better crops in the last 20 years. However, going into the Derby of 2006(Barbaro, Brother Derek, Sweetnothernsaint, Lawyer Ron, Sinister Minister) that crop also appeared to be one of the fastest in recent memory, but few developed into true stars.

1.Quality Road

2.I Want Revenge

   I believe both have the potential to become stars. Quality Road is one of only a handful of horses over the last 20 years that have gone into the Derby with 2 Beyers over 110. IWR most certainly would have joined him if not for the trouble in the Wood (Gotham Beyer of 113). Expected moderate pace swings the advantage to the horse with the better natural/tactical speed, Quality Road.

3.Friesan Fire

4.Dunkirk

5.Pioneer of the Nile

  I have the greatest of respect for Pioneer, and recognize he is the most accomplished prospective starter. However, he is unproven on dirt, while the other two have run Beyers over 100 on dirt. Firesan Fire's tactical speed gives him the advantage over Dunkirk.

6.General Quarters

7.Musket Man

8.Papa Clem

9.Chocolate Candy

10.Hold Me Back

   Went with horses with some tactical speed and who are proven on dirt. I really like GQ and MM's ability to accelerate, and believe both have the superior closing kick to Papa Clem. Chocolate Candy and HMB are two very good colts, but it doesn't appear the pace is going to shape up well for them, and neither is proven on dirt.

11.Regal Ransom

12.West Side Bernie

13.Mr. Hot Stuff

14.Desert Party

15.Summer Bird

   The Dubai horses appear decent, and I can understand why some will take a shot with them at a price. However, I need to see it (Dubai to Churchill) before I will put my money down. Regal Ransom should be a major pace factor and Desert Party has tactical speed as well.

16.Flying Private

17.Win Willy

18.Square Eddie

19.Take the Points/Join in the Dance

20.Mine That Bird  

For those of you that believe that you have the winner of the Derby in your hip-pocket, you might consider that the race is almost 2 weeks down the road!

Brettsky99,

I hate to undermine your entire premise, but here is Big Brown's dosage figures:

... BIG BROWN (USA) b. C, 2005 DP = 4-7-23-2-0 (36) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.36

Here is his pedigree. See for yourself. And see that 23 number in the middle? That is middle classic distance points. Twenty-three! And he had a DI of 1.67, not 3.67! Hardly a sprinter's numbers if you still use Roman's dosage figures.

You are confused because BB was out of Boundary and ran fast. He was also double and triple crossed to Round Table, Damascus, etc. Mucho stamina crossed with speed. Besides, Big Brown's grandsire was Danzig and his sire was Northern Dancer.

The link:

www.pedigreequery.com/big+brown

Ranagulzion:  I agree 100% with your last post.  You are dead on.

Since Jan. I've had POTN. I also like QR and FF to possibly win.

Quality Road's Florida Derby performance has been vastly overrated.

The track was souped up beyond belief that day and the Fla. Derby was essentially a match race between Dunkirk and Quality Road.

Of course, all that being said, I do believe he's capable of winning the Derby... but he's hardly the lone standout in this field.

 I think Giant Oak's owner and trainer are gutless.

 If things fall apart up top and he got a good trip, he coulda been Giacomo.

  General Quarters will win the race.

Dunkirk 1, Pioneer of the nile 2, Friesan fire 3, Quality road 4, I want revenge 5.

In the last 16 Derbys, 13 of the winners had recorded a beyer of at least 90 as a two year old. This would only include Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Regal Ransom, and West Side Bernie.

QR went 2 turns for the firts time and crushed, what do you think he will do when he goes around 2 turns a second time? These posts are pointless QR to crush! If you watch the florida derby againg the jockey is looking around for dunkirk once he sees dunkirk he puts the horse into high gear and its a wrap!

Predict,

     I guess you can use that angle, or you can hang a Dart Board up with the Horses Numbers and fire away, and choose the first three darts as the Trifecta, lol, Crazy....

     Here are Six of the many Reason's why I Hope and Think "Friesan Fire" will take home the "Run for the Roses"...

     Any Adversity he faces he overcomes:

Maiden Win(08.25.08):

www.youtube.com/watch

Fair Grounds(12.18.08):

www.youtube.com/watch

Fair Grounds(01.10.09):

www.youtube.com/watch

Fair Grounds(02.07.09):

www.youtube.com/watch

Fair Grounds(03.14.09):

www.youtube.com/watch

Keeneland Work(04.14.09):

www.youtube.com/watch

Enough Said...

I am have to go with QR.  I think Dray's post just a few above saying the 1:35 mile will cook most horses, and the ones hanging back will be too far back to close fast enough.  I am comfortable with QR running a 1:35 mile fraction, and the first 4fl fast, but it would scare me if they came through the 6fl at 1:09/10 I will start to get very worried.  Even that kind of pace I think QR would be struggling home to some extent.

I like QR and POTN on top with about 5 horses wheeling for the exacta.  IWR, Regal Ransom (only b/c of class of pedigree), MM (b/c he is a tough SOB), CC ( loved him closing in the SAD), General Quarters (not sure why lol), Summer Bird (b/c of the closing in the AD and he is by Birdstone).

Draynay email me man I want to chat  Jusryin09@gmail.com

If "I Want Revenge" looked like a champion winning at Aqueduct after biting the dust (or the pro-ride) behind "Pioneerof the Nile" in California; we can easily infer that, if the Pioneer likes the dirt as well he would win the Derby. Taking this pivotal assumption the following superfectalooks good in prospect..!!: Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge and Dunkirk

I had a vision -the best horse will not win and a major contender will not make it to the big dance.

Contrary to what others have posted here, I think this is a very deep field with more than a few that can win. My pick is Quality Road with Chocolate Candy and (no one will agree with this)  Advice in the mix. I don't think POTN will transfer to dirt, and I Want Revenge already peaked. Also, post position draw has become irrelevant if the right jockey is on the right horse.

TO ThisCatGetsAround: You wrote, "This tidbit: both are inbred with Bold Ruler, who we know was an amazing sire and Derby winner."

Bold Ruler did not win the Kentucky Derby. He did win the Preakness, as well as several handicaps at 10f carrying a lot of weight. However, until Secretariat came along late in Bold Ruler's life, the great stallion was considered a sire of sprinters and middle-distance horses. (Red was born in 1970; BR died in 1971.)

When Red lost the Wood Memorial in 1973, many of the big handicappers of the day picked against him in the Derby because they doubted he could get the 1 1/4 miles.

BTW, Bold Ruler also sired Boldnesian, who sired Bold Reasoning, who sired Seattle Slew, who sired Swale. In addition, Derby winners Dust Commander, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Bold Forbes, and Spectacular Bid were all sired by sons of Bold Ruler.

Bold Ruler, and the immensely influential Teddy, are the only two stallions ever to sire an American Triple Crown winner, and to become male-line grandsire and/or great-grandsire of one.

Yes it is Quality Roads race to lose. His ability to run a 135 mile around 2 turns sticks out like a 7 footer in Italy.

You may also notice that IWR posted ANOTHER very average work and if you look at the last 3 winners of the Derby their works were anything but average.  Bullet works by Quality Road and Dunkirk tell me they are going to be tough to handle.  Papa Clem should be scratched and should run in the Preakness... he is a tired horse.

2009 derby horse rank by what they are and have done 1 pioneer of the nile 2 quality road 3 Friesan Fire

4 i want revenge 5 chocolate candy one of these will win the derby.

For me when handicapping this race, I tend to look at two things in determining the wimmer.  One is who has shown the ability to be close to the last four years average derby fractions at 6f (110.60) and at the mile (136.60).  Second, of the ones able to do that who has the pedigree to stay the additional 4f.  I believe the pace for this derby will be close to these averages.  

Geronimo,

thanks for the correction.  I have an equibase report that shows the rdi of big brown @ 3.67, but pedigreequeery even shows Boundary (forgot that Brownie is 3x3 to Nothern Dancer-which he is always criticized for) himself, with a 2.14 suggesting a little more stamina than speed.  However the balanced premise would still be intact since the DI is not "balanced". My real point was that you would be throwing out a lot of popular choices if the balanced DI theory were to hold true this year.

Lol... hey Fried One why don't you name all the horses in the Derby that have gone 2 turns and posted a 6f # under 112.....lol.

Dray,

    The Florida Derby was really just a three horse race run on a rock hard surface with no real pressure on Quality Road. He should have won like he did. I just think the deeper surface and added pace along with the added distance will do him in big time. If he doesn't get a perfect trip, which is highly likely with all the traffic, he has no chance, if he does get that PERFECT trip, then he will have a chance...

Just my two cent's worth....

I just heard someone was arrested in connection with the deaths of those 21 horses. What an absolute shame.

SmartyLane you said you are comfortable with 1:35 mile but not 6F run in under 109:10 correct?

They will have to run that fast if they want to do a mile in or under 1:35. You got to remember any horse that goes to fast on the front end early is not going to be there at the wire going that far.

Sitting Bull- Do you often have visions?  If so keep us posted on your latest.

Ranagulzion- thanks for your reassurance that QR will control the speed in the race.  Who do you think you'll play in a trifecta with QR?  Do you thinks closers have any chance in this race?

Dray,

    "I Want Revenge" posted a "Average" work because it was an off-track, two days of rain, You can't just look at the time...

    Trainer, Jeff Mullins, "“The track was a little mushy this morning,” he said. “I think our horse got plenty out of it. He galloped out good and strong. Joe said he handled the track pretty well. I think we are in pretty good shape.”

Draynay, I cant wait for you to see QR not win the Derby. He is no BB and it doesnt matter if he runs a 1:36 or under mile and leads the race at that point. He will be passed at the end by FF and probably DK also. I am convinced DK shows he is the superior horse to QR now that he has another race under his belt.

Greg J,

I am in complete agreement with you about FF and the rest of your comments also. I do like QR but Dray is making me like him less and less. Kind of like the Dutrow/

Big Brown factor. To me FF reminds me somewhat of Afleet Alex in his running motion. FF last win was more impressive to me than just about any other prep race because yes he did beat some nice horses and just floated away from the field. But he did so in Afleet Alex's Ark/derby like fasion. I just think that if he brings that type of run to the KD he has the best shot at winning. IWR among others including QR had impressive wins but FF win has just stuck with me plus he is going to have alot of gas in  his tank due to Larry Jones training style to have that extra drive that I think will get him to the finish wire first. What are your thoughts?

GOOD NIGHT look at POTN's work!  The real question is not who will take their synthetic form to dirt but who will get the 1 1/4.  Two horses I'm betting on getting the distance is POTN and CC and I don't care how slow their synthetic Beyer is.  Remember the race does not start until the last 1/8th. POTN may avenge his daddy's loss.  If QR wins he will have beaten some VERY talented horses.  Very deep field indeed.  

Let me ask all of you a very simple question.  In the last 100 years of racing can you name another horse that has set a track record going 2 turns for the first time in a G1 race?

"You can't just look at time" will someone please tell me why NO HORSE at any track has finished under 149 for 1 1/8 ?  Does EVERYONE want to believe the the dirt and the track at Gulfstream is somehow faster than the dirt at EVERY other track in the country !!!

TO: MONICA V

As I recall many thought BB would sweep the Triple Crown,myself included.

I can't take it anymore.I'll try and be brief..

First of all,if everyone has a clean trip(highly unlikely),QR will NOT be the controlling speed as some may think,Regal Ransom is just as fast,and JITD(if he goes)has more speed than shown.If QR is on the lead,he will undoubtedly be pressured from the get-go(something he's never faced)into a blistering pace and he'll be cooked before the far turn.If he's sitting behind a relatively fast pace,Velasquez will have to ask him earlier than usual to go after the front-runner(s) who will not quit after 6f like the sprinters he sat behind in the FOY & Fla Derby did(again,something new to him).If nobody really wants to be on the engine and the front-runners are setting a fairly honest/moderate pace,this means the 'Stalkers will be closer to the front runners and QR will not be able to use his 'high-cruising' speed to his advantage(the Derby is not the right time to try something new like taking a strong hold on a free running horse).And if he breaks bad or is shuffled back,it's over for him(inexperience will make him want to rush-up to the leaders)...Either way you look at it,QR is at a disadvantage,because he WILL get out-kicked down the lane by a handful of Stalkers who can boogie in the stretch,namely: IWR,POTN,FF,GQ and to some extent MM,CCandy & HMB to name a few.Don't believe me?..check-out their last races come home time & compare them to QR's Fla Derby final splits on that speed-favoring surface with his easy trip.Plus the above mentioned horses did that while sitting behind moderate or some have said 'slow' fractions.The quicker the pace the better their kick will be.Now,let's go back to the Fla Derby and notice how the immature Dunkirk rushed-up to QR on the far turn with the strong,elongated move he made.Naturally,Dunkirk had a right to tire after that and it showed in the late stages,but don't think that QR switched gears on Dunkirk,it was more Dunkirk was exhausted at that point as evidence by him nearly collapsing afterwards.QR was also visibly exhausted and his subsequent weight loss issues after the FOY & Fla Derby is a tell-tale sign he wants nothing to do with a 1 1/4miles distance.He will 'hit the wall' as they say.The only chance he has of winning is if he somehow is the lone,uncontested speed setting moderate fractions...No way,not happening.

Now,let's go to IWR and his Wood Memorial win.With all that trouble,moderate fractions and head-wind,he still came home stronger/faster than QR did @ GP.And with-out the trouble,he would've ran the same race he did in the Gotham,pulling-away by 8+lengths in about 1:48 flat hand-ridden on a dead,drying out track with a ridiculous Beyer and #'s attached to him and everybody would be saying he's a Superhorse or the next Greatest since....

Things happen for a reason,and the Wood accomplished 2 things in my eyes. 1) we know IWR is a Monster on dirt and can over-come adversity..2)His odds will be more generous now than they would've been had he had a clean trip & demolished the Wood field.The Cali Reaper is a Beast!!

I can't see QR pulling away from the field on the far-turn like some have mentioned,not against this bunch.I see a wall of horses bunching-up @ the 1/4 marker and a mad-dash to the wire.I repeat: QR will finish 10+lengths behind the winner.............

Desert Party is flying well under the radar this year (and props to Billy Empire for being the only person I've seen who likes his chances.) For those who may have fogotten or were never aware of it at all, he won a stakes at 2 (the G-2 Sanford, which has, in years past, always been a solid predictor of KD success. And while he lost a subsequent juvenile contest (in the G-1 Hopeful), the comment line -- "stumbled, bumped, pinched back" -- gets him a pass. In his second of his three preps this year, he beat Vineyard Haven (who had beaten him in the Hopeful) and Midshipman, who had won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and was the pre-season KD favorite.

He's a $2.1 million foal out of Street Cry, who has already bred 2007 KD winner, Street Sense. Furthermore, his last prep was deceptively good, as he ate into a clear lead the speedy Regal Ransom set (a horse he'd beaten twice previously), on a sloppy, speed-favoring track in which he wasn't hard used and finished far clear of the third-place finisher. As I see it, unlike previous years when Godolphin has brought horses to Churchill that seemed underprepared, this horse seems to be extremely well-meant. Yes, QR is, to my reckoning, a deserving favorite, but to say it's a coronation is silly: just ask Harry Meyerhoff and Buddy Delp, owners of Spectacular Bid, who was a perfect 12 for 12 going into the Belmont Staeks, only to lose the Triple Crown because of a stupid safety pin that lodged in his hoof prior to the race. (The worry, observers say, caused jockey Ronnie Franklin to move early and to chase the cheap speed and he finished third. Think he wouldn't have won? Well, maybe not, but SB had only two other races as bad or worxse: he finished his career 26 for 30 in the winner's circle, with two seconds and a third.) So, let's get off the notion that he can't lose, particularly since the KD is, out of all races, the most likely to be a crapshoot. Proceeding from there, we must wonder whether IWR has peaked (I say yes) and if it's not impossible that Dunkirk (whose wide move in the Florida Derby was rather breathtaking) improves as much or more in a return engagement, which is impossible to know. Similarly, while everyone focuses upon POTN liking dirt, what happens if Square Eddie, who absolutely seemed like a short horse in the Lexington, which was obviously a prep, also improves on the dirt and runs to his back class? Unlike some on this board who swear to possess powers of divination and supreme omniscience, I'm just another horseplayer with an opinion. Still, from where I sit, with Regal Ransom, the field's leading money winner, likely to add legitimate pace pressure, Desert Party seems to be a rather intriguing play, particularly at odds of 15-1 or better.

Pioneerof The Nile goes by horses quickly--there's no real battle when he makes his move---Now he will have a bit more pace to run at--I don't think he'll be far off the pace--rather I think GoGo will make his move/go right on by to the front at head of stretch--then hold off Dunkirk/I Want Revenge/Hold Me Back/Gen Quarters...I Want Revenge is the horse to beat, I just think POTN's Robert Lewis stamps him as the best horse--he steadied back at the 1/4 pole-then he raced widest/rolled past I Want Revenge and Papa Clem in style!THAT, along with having the BEST trainer for The Derby/BEST jockey in the world/best kick--- makes me think POTN will finish no worse than 2nd in Derby--someone may jump up and beat him but I think he's the best horse of this crop--Good luck to all!

MaureenS,

I am in agreement with you, if Advice goes in th Derby, I actually think he could win it. It seems like a long shot, but off his last race, this horse is coming around at the right time, and could be a terror in the stretch, of course he'll have to transfer that turn of foot to the dirt, and I don't see why he shouldn't handle the distance, I wonder who'll ride him. I love to see no RAN in his sire side, it's just nice for a change. He looks great, but definitely shows signs of a teenager growing into a man. Anybody want some Advice?

Love Quality Road & Fresian Fire, but I am going to bet Papa Clem. Like the fact that he made the transition from synthetic successfully, being by Smart Strike there is no distance limitations and is getting better with time. Hope I will be able to get better than 25-1.

SPEEDBALL: The trifecta question is best left for next week and may change based upon the works over the Churchill Downs surface.  Right now I have three trifecta outcomes, two with QR on top and one as a sort of "insurance coverage" in case something goes amiss with QR.  1)Quality Road, General Quarters, Friesan Fire  2)Quality Road, Win Willy, Dunkirk  3)General Quarters, Pioneer Of The Nile, Win Willy.

If for any reason QR doesn't fire, the pace scenario could change altogether, in which case a trifecta with Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge and Papa Clem in the mix is also quite conceivable.  I tell you, Quality Road aside, this is a very very contentious Derby line up.

The out and out closers are at an advantage only if the pace gets ridiculously fast and sucks in the stalkers as occurred in 2001(Monarchos) and 2005 (Giacomo).  If Join In The Dance, Papa Clem and Regal Ransom decide to go for it (under the watchful eye of Quality Road with Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge and Desert Party stalking close up) you never can guarantee how things will unfold.  However an experienced jock like johnny V is likely to keep a cool head and have QR ready to head-up affairs at the top of the lane and motor his way to victory.  The truth is, your guess is as good as mine regarding the minor placings so all the best to you my friend.        

Brettsky,

I agree with that premise.

gregJ,

You make a good point about the Fla. Derby and that is that Quality Road should have won like he did. That's what very good to great horses do, they win like they should. IWR didn't win like he should have, PON didn't win like he should have, Desert Party didn't win at all. All three of those are considered top contenders so why would you dismiss another top contender for doing what he should have? Bet against Quality Road at your own risk. he's far too good to throw out.

I am glad to see POTN is seeming to take to dirt well, as evidence by his work. I saw they did not give his half mile time so i did some calculating and came up with 49 seconds flat for the half. This gives him fractions of 12.2,24.2,36.4,49,1.00.8,1.13.4,and 1.26.6. His furlong splits were 12.2, 12, 12.2,12.6, 11.8, 12.6, and 13.2. I think that is a very good work for his first on dirt.

Geronimo2123,

Add this to your evaluation of Big Brown's pedigree. Take a second look at that "middle" number of 23. When that number is greater than the total of all the others you have a horse with "dominant class". Last year was a no brainer especially when you take into consideration how pathetic the rest of the field was coming into the race that day. There were millions who had Big Brown on top and contrary to his belief nay nay didn't see what nobody else could see.

I have to go with the horse with the best connections, fastest Beyers, and the biggest (over 17 hands), strongest, colt in the field. One who's running style should keep him out of trouble in the huge field of 20.  

Quality Road to win, and I'll key him on top in the exotics.

Okay here is the way I see the race. The horse thats rider can keep him under control, out of trouble, and ready to roll on the turn for home will be the winner. With a twenty horse field I am not dissing any of the horses that are running. Can anyone say Charismatic or Giacomo? I think that says it all. I like Summer Bird after his Arkansas Derby run, the fact that he can lay way back and have a final kick that is unbelievable, and seems to be able to run for days, and at a mile and a quarter he gives me hopes to make some money come Derby Day. Enjoy.    

    Alright, here's a question that I hope some of you might be able to help me with.  There's been a lot made by some people (actually just 1 person on this blog) about Quality Road's ability to run a mile in 1:35 and 1 1/8 in 1:47 3/5 and the fact that no other horse has come close to that.  Dunkirk ran just 3 or 4 weeks before the Florida Derby in an allowance and posted a mediocre time of 1:50 for the 1 1/8 distance yet come back to run his mile in the Florida Derby in about 1:35 3/5 and his 1 1/8 in about 1:48 give or take a tick.  So my question is, is it possible for a horse to run a 1:49-1:50 for a 1 1/8 race and still be plenty capable of running faster in his next race when needed, let's say like a 1:48 or 1:47 4/5 especially on a track that's was playing to very quick times, as shown by Dunkirk?  Dray, I know Quality Road this and Quality Road that, Quality Road is a freak and the rest are running for the pieces, but seriously, anyone with an open mind willing to answer that?  Alright, so I'm being fecetious and really already know the answer, but I was hoping others might be willing to chime in.  

This Just in:  Since 1976's Bold Forbes Ky Derby win,nobody else has won the Derby with ONLY(1) prior 2-turn race to their credit.And Bold Forbes had an uncontested lead in a weak 9 horse field that year.Just another reason to 'fuh-get about' QR's chances in the Derby.

Curlin,

     Anything is possible, Of course then can run faster then their previous race, Depending how hard the jockey pushed for, the trip, traffic, track condition,  etc...

     I know that Quality Road and Dunkirk have great potential, Quality Road probably has the best "Pure" speed, BUT Quality Road has only raced 4 times, NO Derby winner has ever won with only four career starts, He has only gone two turns ONCE, Quarter cracks are unpredictable, Twenty Horses creates alot of traffic and problems, The Florida Derby's track was way too fast, records were breaking all day,I actually think Dunkirk ran a more impressive

race the Quality Road, When he made a circling move around rivals to enter contention in the stretch, that was impressive, ran a longer race and was still there with Quality road, Quality road was just fresher down the stretch, Dunkirk reminds me of Big Brown(A little!), although, history was broken with Big Brown when he won in only 4th start(No one Since Regret, 1915), No horse has won without racing as a two year old(Since Apollo, 1882). Dunkirk will be great as he gets the experience, but this won't be his day and it won't be Quality Road's day either.....

     History will be made, though, When Friesan Fire wins after his 7 week lay off(Hasn't been done since 1929), After two seconds in the derby(Hard Spun, second-place finish behind Street Sense in 2007, Eight Belles, second to Big Brown last year), I believe Mr. Jones has this down to a science, and he has his most talented horse EVER, and redemption will be his when Friesan Fire crosses the line first!

predict,

Here's some advice for you. Don't waste any money on Advice. Take a close look at his dirt race two back. He finished with a last quarter of 26.3 and last furlong in 13.2. He actually made up 1 1/2 lengths in that last furlong so that tells you what a bunch of plodders he was up against. That's not going to get him anywhere in the stretch at Churchill except further back when he faces real top 3 yr olds. Don't bother citing his finish on the fake crap at Keenland. Closing fractions at any fake track are much faster just like in turf races. The Derby is run on dirt and this horse clearly crapped out on it and he's not bred for a distance either.

Slew,

   Agree 100 Percent, Quality Road will not even hit the board, lol, Also NO HORSE has EVER won the Derby with 4 career starts....

(Yes, It has been done with three starts, BUT never 4 starts)...

Mike Revla,

I thought BB would take the TC as well but I wasn't as sure as Draynay.  It's so tough to do it but BB was so dominating last year, I just didn't think he would be beaten but on the other hand I wasn't surprised that he lost because to get the TC is almost impossible these days.

draynay has got Q R one track mind its not florida its kentucky.hoof issues quarter cracks not good .sound horses win pioneer of the nile .

TO: SLEW.em.ALL

I have to hand it to you,I was wrong regarding Haynesfield,also w/IC in the Wood. But,I'm on target regarding IWR not winning the Derby. I don't want any of your excuses either. Just want  you to lose your ego and admit you were wrong when it happens!

SLEW:  If Quality Road "hits a brick wall" and is beaten 10 lengths in the Derby by I Want Revenge according to your forcast, I'll have to change my name from RANAGULZION to RUMPELSTILTSKIN.  LOL.

Key Quality Road with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back, and Dunkirk for the triple and superfecta.

I Want Revenge could not beat Pioneerof the Nile, and he still can't. And you noticed where I placed Pioneer in my triple and superfecta.

Friesan Fire - I like Jones as a trainer a lot. As much as I like him as a trainer, I believe he gave the horse 7 weeks off for a very good reason. He was a late foal. He too, like I Want Revenge beat up on nobody. He is still developing. He will need every ounce of strength just to finish 4th. He will still finish in front of I Want Revenge, though. I Want Revenge beat some goats in his last race. Now, he has to face some real horses. Milkshake Mullins needs more than just Air Power for this horse. He needs to find another drug that, the authorities haven't typed yet, or have the Kentucky Derby race switched to be run on the Aqueduct inner track. The horse is a complete toss.

Relva-- You haven't 'been on target' all season,why should it change now...Ego? lol.I wasn't the one who mentioned that my girlfriend was a part-time waitress..err..model in Cali did I.Ego?.If that's how you feel because of your limited knowledge regarding the 'Ponies is obvious on this blog,then don't go chasing waterfalls,stick to the creeks and the streams that you're used to.

Rana-- "I don't bet big,but when I do,I bet the Slews"!!....stay thirsty my friend.  lol

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

First,I'm org from Miami,no creeks there,lol. Also,my gf isn't a waitress,maybe you were referring to your gf with the waitress thing,lol. As far as being on target,I was last time FF raced,except someone placed a phony post on Adam's blog,(which he removed). Oh yea,you did notice he removed it and emailed to agree no way it was mine.

TO: AUGUST SONG

I agree with you regarding IWR,but I've got news for you,no horse should be called a "goat".

slew em if he could, I Want Revenge will save you a tin can, that he picked up from one of the goats that he beat in his last race. He said that you can use it to try and earn back all the money that you're about to lose. Put a pair of sunglasses on and you'll be perfect.

Hey MonicaV how are you? I wish Atthebarn and Whatamidoing would post the odd one, I miss those guys.

Draynot,

       I am not dismissing Quality Road, I just think everyone is making too much out of the Fla. Derby, If he didn't win, Now that would have been news, He was racing against basically three horses, It was a good race, Not a "Great Race" like everyone seems to be saying, The track was souped up so those times are skewed, and he didn't have to deal with any adversity.  Can he win the Derby, Of course, there are probably five or six that can, In what I consider the best field in a long time, even with the loss of The Pamplemouse and Old Fashioned. I just can't pick all of the horses that I think could win, I have one, Friesan Fire, I will not change because he has been my number one since day one and he has done nothing wrong to change my mind, I loved the Pamplemousse, but the injury sucked, but that is part of this sport.

     Bottom line, In my opinion, Too much can go wrong for Quality Road in the Derby for me to pick him, He has NEVER faced adversity and the Derby is unlike any race he has been in, I think his inexpierence will come into play. Of course I can be dead wrong, But that is what makes Horse Racing Great,  Anything and Everything is possible....

I'm doing great Wanda, how about you?  I wish our buddies would post too.  I'm getting excited about this year's TC races.  Looks like a lot of talent this year and some great racing coming up.

GregJ: I like your post it sums everything up nicely. People can post figures and facts till the cows come home but as you say anything and everything is possible. By the way where is home for those cows?

wrong song--that spot under the old oak tree is already reserved with your name on it.They say u can even bring along your decrepit,mangy old-mutt to keep you warm,but not your banjo.You'll have to leave it in your aunt's basement along-side your dignity and empty promises...cheers!  lol

When you look over this field, you can make good a case for 7 or 8 of

them. When you consider the ones who are hurt and didn't make it...Old Fashioned, Pamplmousse, Vinyard Haven, Midshipmen. Plus add the three terrific 3 yr old fillies...Rachel, Stardom, and Justwhistledixie...well I'd say this is one of the best crops of 3 yr olds I've seen. And I go back to the early 60's. Maybe equal to legendary 1957 crop???

I still will go with a nice wager on Rachel/Quality Road Oaks/Derby double. And key QR on top in all exotics. And there's sure plenty to pick from under him!

GREG J

How are you? Do you still like FF? I like him and also cause of Larry. But,also Pioneer,Quality Road. I wasn't convinced with Ranagulzion's  "spin". It was totally uncalled for. Would like to see him explain it to Larry Jones. lol

Mike Relva,

    How are you?, Of course I still like "Friesan Fire", Like him more everyday, I don't think Quality Road will hit the board, Too much for him to handle, but we will see, Alot of people are dismissing Fire's speed, I honestly think he can set the pace from the opening, but alot depends on post, If you go back and look at all of his races, He is is very quick from the break, The mile and a quarter doesn't faze me in the least, Distance is in his blood, plus, I trust Jones with what he is doing, Un-conventional, Yes, but he did almost the same with Hard Spun, and they worked out for him, I just think this is the most talented horse Jones has ever had...

   Going with Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Summer Bird on my biggest Tri's, But I will mix it up, I am sure...

   Pioneer of the Nile, is a great horse, but it is bugging me that he has never raced on dirt and all of his wins have been won by less then 4 lengths total, He has heart, though...

    We shall see, Should be one of the greatest Derby's in recent memory...

    Ranagulzion's "Spin" is fine with me, Comment was uncalled for, but he clarified it, so I guess I will take him at his word...

Yep, Quality Road "didn't have to deal with any adversity" and "NEVER faced adversity" in the Florida Derby or any of his other  races. And "Dunkirk ran the better race." LOL, you have to love these individuals logic. When he was sick for the 7 furlong allowance race and he got a slow start and then the jockey, (Alan Garcia) raced him up to engage the leader and fought the entire length of the racetrack, only to be passed by Theregoesjojo in deep stretch and to finish 2nd. Nope, that doesn't count, no adversity there. Hmmm, let's see, in Florida Derby he developed a quarter crack in his hoof during the running of the race, which affected where he ended up finishing, and the time that he ran his race in. Yep, no adversity there. If he didn't hurt himself, he might have won the race, and certainly his time would have been better. And, that leaves the Fountain of Youth. There was no adversity in that race either, that I choose to disclose to anyone here, now. Because you doubters, are simply not worthy. To the believers in Road, what I have to comment will not make a bit of difference to them, except to confirm what they already know about him, that he is truly special. Just his connections, and just a few others know what happened to Road during the Fountain of Youth. Maybe, you can speak with one of them. If you can't, I'll let you unworthy ones think about. I'll tell you after the Derby. In the meantime, "Nope, Quality Road NEVER had to deal with any adversity." LOL

Greg J,

You never did respond to my blog. FF is my horse also. Liked him as a two yr old. Back up and read my blog and give me your opinion. Please.

Horswld,

     Sorry, Missed it, But "Friesan Fire" does remind me a little of "Afleet Alex", in his style, You are spot on with his La. Derby win, I think, The most impressive win this year, Even better then I Want Revenge's win, which was incredible also, just think the field wasn't as impressive as the La. Derby.

    If it rains all next week, Fire will win by ten lengths(lol), Also, If you look at all of Fire's races, He has great speed out of the gate, that seems to go un-noticed, yes, Quality Road has probably the best speed, BUT, as I have stated before, This horse is in-experienced and that will come back to haunt him, the Derby is a free for all, alot of contact, traffic, strategy, and different then anything Quality Road has seen,  Dray can build this guy up forever and other people too, Of course he has a chance, so does 5 or 6 others, But my gut is just saying Fire will take home the roses, And Jones will have the freshest horse, Even though he hasn't raced in seven weeks, I still believe he will be fit, Also, I love the blinkers, he is a very focused horse,  remember, Jones has done this before, as far as training with long breaks, Hard Spun, finished second in his derby, Fire is just more talented which is why he will win((Also a good Post will help, but it is still possible for him to get to the front if he has a far outside post, he has won before from far out)), Finally, he is bred for distance, so the fact that people say he has never raced a long distance, doesn't faze me in the least....

August Song,

In your opinion,

    Does it matter at all to you that Quality Road(In the FOY) carried just 114 pounds under the conditions of the race, eight pounds fewer than Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven and Break Water Edison, the 122-pound high weights.  

     Also, You are funny, Since I don't think Quality Road will win, and everyone else who thinks he won't win, That makes us UN-WORTHY people, Wow, I didn't know that if you liked a certain horse that makes you Better then every other UN-WORTHY person, Wow, come back down to earth, please, When you walk through a doorway, Do you walk sideways(To make room for your swelled head)???, It really doesn't matter that you have some deep secret that only a few know(I doubt you are talking about the anti-bleeding medication furosemide, which he was on for the first time?, Because that is really nothing at all)...

    Bottom Line, I love "Friesan Fire" to win, and you like "Quality Road" to win, when every thing is said and done, Nobody ever knows who will win until the race is over, or we could all quit are day jobs, and just always place winning wagers....

    Good Luck with your "Worthy" pick, and, I guess(According to your logic), Good Luck to Every other "UN-WORTHY" person who didn't pick Quality Road, lol....

August Song,

     Follow Up, Here are 32 of the Country's Top Handicapper's, and 25 of them must be "UN-WORTHY", Since they don't have "Quality Road" as their run away winner!(IWR-10 first place votes, Friesan Fire-8 first place votes, Quality Road-7 first place votes, POTN-5 first place votes, Dunkirk-2 first place votes, Musket Man-1 first place vote)...

    Honestly, According to you, Why should they even run the race?, They should just give Quality Road the Roses and save every other UN-WORTHY horse the trouble, lol...

August Song,

   Lastly, I have said before, Everyone is forgetting that Quarter Cracks are SO unpredictable, I still have a gut feeling it will flair up, I pray I am wrong, Because I want the best possible field, but they almost never heal as fast as they say...

Greg J,

Thanks for your feedback. I think FF has nice speed out of the gate also. Funny no one else seems to acknowledge that fact. And yes the blinkers are great. They should keep him focused out of the gate and into his first few strides which will be key for him. If it does rain--lights out for the rest. Wouldn't you like to have heard the hot air being knocked out of Dray and August when they found out QR has another quarter crack? They have just talked that poor horse right into the ground haven't they? Too bad if he misses the Derby. I sure would like to see FF take it to him.

Horswld,

     Mark my words...

     Now Dray will say it will be the weakest field ever for the derby because Quality Road isn't in it(If they decide not to run him), If Quality Road does race, but doesn't win, He will say it was because of the Quarter Crack, If they do race Quality Road(Which I don't think will happen), He will be 100 percent sound, They would never chance it if he wasn't, So their should be no excuses....

    Friesan Fire all the way to Triple Crown(I know, Getting a little ahead of myself, lol)...

Greg J,

Couldn't have said it any better myself. The excuses will be so far out of this world that it will be just plain sad. That's really no different than the rest of Dray's comments. Just my opinion. I've already got pre-Derby butterflys. Can't wait to see the "Fire" burn up the triple crown. (Sorry. Just can't help myself.lol)

Desert Party is a definite overlay in this field. This horse can bring it bigtime in the last 1/4 mile and that's exactly what I'm looking for in this Derby. Don't underestimate the Godolphin pair, both horses were at least 15 lengths ahead of the field at the wire in the Dubai Derby a (Grade 2 race) the final time 1:50 is deceiving,the important thing is how fast both ran the last 1/4 mile.They both literally blew away the entire field in the stretch.  Both are training extremely well over the CD strip. Regal Ransom had things his way in the Dubai Derby,that won't happen on Saturday,however the pace will be taylor made for Desert Party. Anytime a horse is 15 lengths ahead of the field at the wire in a Grade 2 race,it's safe to say that horse has a lot of talent. That kind of performance doesn't happen too often in Grade 2 races. The 15-1 odds this horse is listed at is ridiculous.---- Again, don't undereStimate him, this horse is sitting on ready for this race and he'll be very tough to deal with when they turn for home this Saturday------take heed!