I really hope Ian McKinlay is right, as Quality Road is my top choice as well.  I Want Revenge is the next best in my book.

My suggestion would be to consider Pioneerof the Nile. I am not a big fan of the way he runs, but he keeps on winning and I believe he has Gomez aboard.

Pioneer of the Nile...

he beat the favorite ( revenge)

his trainer knows how to win the derby..  his jockey is the best in the country when the money is on the line... has stalking speed and the the pedigree to get the distance.

price will be right...

after that...

it's anyone's race for second....

Punt.

JASON: Last night I came across this video (www.youtube.com/watch) of Quality Road's Apr. 10 workout. After watching it and listening to Jimmy Jerkens' less than confident comments, I'm not in the least bit surprised by this morning's developments.

In my fantasy stable, I wouldn't enter him in the derby. He's too nice a colt to mess around with, and I'd opt for a longer career than the ego-stroke of having a horse in the derby. Just my opinion.

the effort-less stride of Friesan Fire has me convinced. ever notice how Saez barely moves his hands then..BOOM..FF cruises right to the lead. what an efficient stride!

fast track in florida derby anything to do with quality roads

quarter crack?

Wow, Jason!  I have no suggestions really other than asking Sitting Bull.  He's the one on your blog who had the vision about a big favorite not making it to the Derby.  Said he had a vision about it.  If's he's really N.A. he may have the answer for you!

I am not an expert and don't profess to be one.  This is a major step back.  

It will be extremely tough to put him in my top 4.

I am thinking Pioneerof the Nile.

Do a 1 and 1a pick. If QR goes in the Derby he will still be THE pick. Jimmy Jerkins is no Dutrow. If the horse is not ready he will not run. Period!! If QR is unable to make it in the field, I think you have to look at Dunkirk. I honestly feel that IWR is a false favorite. I think he is too high strung and will implode on May 2. I have seen Joe T. look like a top class jockey and on the same card look like a 19 year old apprentice with his head up his behind. I also think POTN will be rank and Gomez will not be able to control him. FF seems a little slow but I dismissed Eight Belles last year for the same reason. So what the hell do I know! I feel that if QR and or Dunkirk run back the same or better than they did in the Florida Derby, which I expect them to do,  then one or the other will win.

I had him as my top pick as well for the same reason you give. However, I was concerned about the lack of a work over the track. I was willing to overlook the first crack, but not this one. Now I'm leaning toward either Desert Party or Friesan Fire, but the latter's layoff is a concern. I consider Pioneer the horse to beat based upon his record and jockey/trainer, and Revenge the other. But why take short odds on either when there appear to be other quality horses in the field?

Let  us wait until Desert Party have his workout, I believed that this is the time the desert warrior will conquer the Kentucky Derby!

JASON, by the way, I can't offer any suggestions on who you should make your top choice, but recommend you take a close look at this photo (cmsimg.courier-journal.com/.../bilde) of Friesan Fire at Keeneland. He is a poster boy for excellent condition. Look at those muscles, and you can even see the dapples in his coat if you look closely enough.

Here's another close-up of him winning the LADerby (cmsimg.courier-journal.com/.../bilde). The colt just fills the eye.

Lastly, read what Larry Jones says in this Courier-Journal article (www.courier-journal.com/.../Mile+workout+proves++easy++for+Friesan+Fire) after FF's mile work last Sunday. "'I wanted to make him blow a little bit,' Jones said, adding with a laugh, "but apparently that didn't work, either."

Friesan Fire may or may not win the Kentucky Derby, but he sure is coming up to the race in absolutely wonderful condition. Just my $0.02.

    Hate to hear about the Quarter Crack, I don't think they should run him now, I agree with For Big Red, too much too gamble with, With such a bright future ahead, Why chance it, two Quarter Cracks on two different legs? Talk about bad luck...Rather have Quality Road run completely healthy down the road, then now, Only eight days to derby is too much to risk, Just my two cents...

    Friesan Fire all the way...

I think it's silly to try and settle on just ONE horse this year. When you have have basically 4 horses who have dominated thier preps it would make sense to me that Derby 135 will be no differnt. I'll be doing a Trifecta box that will include Pioneerof the Nile (I was there for his 1st work on the CD dirt and he looked awesome) I Want Revenge - Friesan Fire (sitting on a huge race) Dunkirk (Ragozin number is a -3/4..good enough for me)and Hold Me Back (should be flying late) I have made a stand against Quality Road based on his new Quarter crack issue and my gut feeling that the pace will be faster than most people think...it always is! See you on the backside Derby Week!

So disappointed with this development.  My suggestion would be to go with the next best horse, Dunkirk.

Or Friesen Fire.

Pioneer of the Nile would be a logical pick since he is apparently handling the Churchill surface and Baffert (a great judge of equine ability) seems pleased and confident. Someone on another blog said Baffert's "almost talking smack".

Unless that quarter crack heals immediately and Quality Road trains like a maniac over the Churchill surface, he should be withdrawn from the Derby field. As noted by Big Red, he's just too nice a colt to mess with at this stage of his career.

He's 17 hands, and when he raced over that GP track, it was like pavement. I'm not surprised he popped a quarter crack. Churchill Downs always grooms the track to within an inch of its life on Derby day. If he's able to run, how are the feet going to handle that track? I always think of Point Given and he came back from the Derby with stung feet. I know Touch Gold won the Belmont on a patched quarter crack, but that track is deeper.

I think QR has the most bullets in his six shooter, but I really worry about the Derby day track suiting this particular (very large) horse.

even if the quarter crack isnt as bad as the 1st one, QR has to be a toss, quarter cracks are caused because his not running evenly on he 4 hoofs, dont think il take a chance on a horse not running evenly

I believe Gomez is the best at what he does. I also think Pioneer of The Nile is the best of the remaining three year olds on the derby trail. He will be at about  8-1 so i think I'll put him to be on top

Except for Golden_Given, no one talks about Friesan Fire. For me, any odds over 5-1 is a steal.  Also, take a good look at Chocolate Candy who is coming up to the race in peak form. Good Luck.    

Dammit!!!....now the 'real' contenders' odds will sink faster than QR's chances of making the Derby...don't jump-ship now,if you had him pegged a couple weeks ago,by all means bet him.Or,go with Papa Clem whom you said was your choice out of all the Cali horses..lol.Keep shrugging-off IWR & POTN like they're no big deal Jason..they'll prove you wrong again & again my man.IWR is a Beast!! What more evidence do people need to see the truth?..look at how much better he's on dirt,it's plain and simple.

I like Quality Road, but I think he is to muscle bound to be effective at 1 1/4 miles.  He reminds me of another top horse who was super tough up to 1 1/8 miles, but hit a wall past that.  Serena's Song comes to mind.  Q.R. has a short neck and does not look like a distance horse.  Now the quarter cracks.  If he wins or even hits the board, my hats off to him.  It sure makes Dunkirk look good.  My sleeper is 2 horses this year.  Mr Hot Stuff was closing like a shot in the S.A. Derby, and Chocolate Candy is going to go off at 15 or 20 to 1.  Fresian Fire is also tough, but no value there.  I would like for F.F. to win just so A.P.Indy gets his own triple crown with Bernardini and Rags.  Having said all this.....Pioneer has done nothing wrong except win, and he is training even better over the dirt than I think even Bob Baffert thought he would train.  He looks to be sitting on explode for the Derby.  Good luck everyone with your picks.

I'd say go Musket Man. He has speed and experience. He's won at different tracks against different horses. He's won up front & coming from behind. What has really sold me on him is what his trainer has been doing galloping him long. One of the critiques of this horse has been that his pedigree says he can't do it, but he's already outrun that and now he's being trained for distance.

I will say that I have never been particularly impressed with POTN, regardless of his knack for hitting the wire first.  Watching him (video) on the Churchill track has changed my mind.  He's starting to look really good.

Remember one very important fact. QR ran the Florida Derby with a quarter crack. Jerkins said he noticed it in the winners circle. It sure didn't affect him in the race as far as I could see. I'm not saying run him no matter what but if it is not bothering the horse than why should it bother the trainer? If they patch it today and he goes on the track tomorrow and there is no discomfort then there should be no problem breezing him Sun. Ship him to Louisville on Tue. as planned and go forward from there. Quarter cracks happen all the time and you never hear about it unless it is the KY Derby. Jimmy J won't run his horse if there is any doubt in his mind.

ALL: For people who are interested, here's a good explanation of quarter cracks and their causes (www.equipodiatry.com/qtrcrka.htm). The page includes photos of a quarter crack and how it is patched.

    I have loved Friesan Fire Since he broke his maiden at Delaware in August, He is the complete package, Pedigree, Confidence, Break-out Speed, Trainer, Undefeated with Blinkers, Wins on any track condition, Has beaten quality fields...

    How can you not Love this Horse?, He has no weaknesses...

((1.Friesan Fire, 2.General Quarters, 3.Chocolate Candy, 4.Summer Bird)).

   Those will be my top four....

IF QR out bet on todd pletcher exacta.

To win the Derby, a horse needs to run the best race of their life. I doubt now that QR can do that, but he may still hit the board.  I also wonder if he changes race tactics as well.  Will QR still go out fast, or will he sit more off the lead(either due to not being 100%, or the jock being careful)?  If so, the leaves Regal Ransom as controlling speed.  He may be awfully hard to catch if he sets reasonable fractions.  This puts Dunkirk at a disadvantage, although I believe he will be in the top 4.

So, if the pace is soft and puts the pack of field at a disadvantage, who is fast enough with a shot to run down Regal Ransom?

POTN-if the pace is not hot, will he do what he did in the SA Derby?  If he does, he won't win.  He already has to improve several lengths to win anyway.

IWR-He should be in a stalking position and will be one of the 1st to come after Desert Party. He's got a real shot.

FF-another who should be just behind the leaders.  He should be making a move at the same time IWR does.  He's got a real shot as well.

Musket Man-has the speed figure, but his pedigree says no. He may make an appearance down the lane, but I think it will be short-lived.

General Quarters-He'd have to improve a few lengths, but its possible.  He might have a shot if he gets forwardly placed.

Hold Me Back-would also need to improve a few lengths, but I think this one prefers synthetic.

West Side Bernie has run fast enough to win.  I think he runs best on dirt despite his only G3 win on synthetic. He's never been out of the money on dirt.  Might be a live longshot.

Win Willy-will not get the pace he needs, as I dont think he's as good as Dunkirk.

Chocolate Candy-he'll have to improve 6-8 lengths to have a shot. I doubt it.

Desert Party is an unknown. This race sets up like the UAE Derby and he couldn't catch Regal Ransom then.  He's got the pedigree to run all day however.

For me, I think Regal Ransom,FF or IWR will win.  I think Dunkirk, General Quarters, POTN, and West Side Bernie all have legit shots to hit the board.

If I was playing a tri or super box, I'd use RR, FF, IWR, Dunkirk, General Quarters, and West Side bernie.  Those are my 6 to box.  If Regal Ransom wins and West Side bernie even comes in 3rd or 4th (with QR and POTN out of the top 4), it will be a nice payoff.

   Quarter Cracks are a living organism, They have a mind of there own, There is NO WAY they race Quality Road unless it is 100 percent clean,  With only eight days, It would be tough, But they will only do what is right by the horse, Their Ego's will never enter into the equation....

Friesan Fire hands down. Nothing else needs to be said.

You're welcome, Jason. :)

Wow.... Monica.. I remember that prediction. Wonder if it will come true....

Big Red I agree with you 100%!!!!!!!!Don't race this colt in the derby as dissapointing as that is. If they race him and win he is on the triple crown trail and would end up like BB. Give him the time off he needs and then put him back into the game. I hope they do right by the horse.

Where is draynay at now? Hmmm disappeared all of sudden I am sure he is at the bar right now drinking his sorrow's away. Draynay get on the Musket Man bandwagon he is ready for prime time!

TO GREG J.: Next big hurdle for our Fire is the post position draw. If you could pick any PP, which would you prefer for him?

Jason, Don't hit the panic button just yet. Straight quarter crack with no heat should not change your mind. 48 hours will tell the tale. McKinlay is the best in the business and after 48 with no infection he'll either be a go at a much better price after the media blow it out of proportion, or if in fact heat develops Jerkens declares. You can still make your deadline. Best of luck.

Great Article Big Red... thanks for posting it. Its scary to think these horses still run with these.

The link that For Big Red provided provides some good insight into QR's problems and should make one pause before getting down on him at the windows. Thanks for the link.  Big Brown also sufferred from quarter cracks and was seemingly able to overcome the problem.  I remember all of the problems that Unbridled Song had with quarter cracks. He wound up running the Derby with egg bar shoes on the affected hooves which obviously limited his ability to reach his stride potential.  It will be interesting to see what kind of shoe[s] QR gets to wear if he races in the Derby.

J, as others have said I wouldn't worry about QR, if they say hes fit then I would believe them, they are "Derby proof" IMHO, and wont be tempted unless they know they got a fit horse.

The only thing that beats POTN is himself..He may very well come un-glued..

Dunkirk? Later in the year..Need more bottom, althought I don't believe the Derby atmosphere will hinder him at all.

FF? want to see more distance on a dry track before I put all my eggs in that basket.

IWR, the Wood jinx..mmm got to put him him, but again not all the money here.

One thing I hope you will help with is the desert horses..I just don't know what to think about them. Please let us know how they are looking over the track, in truth in yrs past i would have tossed them, now I'm not so sure.

I have no clear cut favorite as of yet, several of them would not upset me winning. Just trying to figure out my bets.lol Good Luck!!

Keep a close eye on this situation if he misses training he is toast. If he runs he will win but probably wont be a triple crown candidate. Either way his odds just got a big boost which is good news if he runs. Bling Bling!

Big Red, great article.  QR is such an athletic, strong, horse.  It is too bad.  I am glad Jerkins is no Dutrow.

If you are looking at pedigree, Friesan Fire is your guy.  There is no other horse in the derby with that kind of pedigree.  Of course it is not all about pedigree, but if you look at the trainer, Larry Jones is great, and he loves this horse.  I also like General Quarters.  His pedigree is okay.  I don't know why, I just like him.

I told everyone that Draynay was going to jinx this horse since he selected him. He's given him two quarter cracks now. Karma's a B**ch man.....

Jason, jump to I Want Revenge. he's as versatile as they get. If it rains, back him up with Fresian Fire. Man

This is so awful, Quality Road was my pick no so much for the horse, but for the jockey , i truely belive this this was Johnny V's year.... So Pioneer if the Nile seems to be a logic choice specially for the Sintethic to Dirt trend .... EX... Papa Clem .... I Want Revenge

TO GREG J.: In your 24 Apr 2009 1:32 PM post you wrote that egos would never enter into the equation. I'm sure you're 100% right regarding a responsible trainer like Jimmy Jerkens, who told the DRF that he wouldn't enter QR in the Derby if he couldn't work the colt by Monday at Belmont.

My pick is Desert Party. There is a 60% chance of rain right now on Derby, and the two horses that I have seen win in the mud impressively are Desert Party and Friesian Fire, so along with I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, and Dunkirk, that is my 5 horse box. POTN will be sixth like Colonel John was last year.

I remember when AP Indy was pulled out of the Derby because of a quarter crack.  He also skipped the Preakness, won the Peter Pan and the Belmont.  He would have won the TC had he not had the hoof problem.

For Big Red,

     Let's see, Last race, Fire broke from gate 9(Out of nine), Before that, Broke from gate 6(Out of 13), Before that, Broke from gate 1(Out of eight)...

     So, Fire has won with the whole field to his left, Won in the middle, Won with the whole field to his right...all with blinkers...

     Bottom line, In my opinion, Don't think it is a huge deal where he is, I would prefer on the rail, or close to it, If he gets the outside five, More work for him, but I honestly believe he has the break out speed to be close to the front if that happens...

(((Also, Looked ahead at the forecast, thursday and friday 50 percent chance of rain, Saturday's forecast isn't out yet))), If it is a Muddy track, Forget about it, Rain will not put this Fire out....

What about you???

The great Buckpasser missed all of the Triple Crown races in 1966 due to a quarter crack, but still went on to Horse of the Year honors after winning the Arlington Classic, Travers, Woodward, Lawrence Realization and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Just sayin...

2:24, that was Secretariat's time in the Belmont.  So you're going  with Friesan Fire.  He is Secretariat, incarnate.

A quarter crack with no heat and no infection after a couple of days leaves the connections with the option to run, but the Derby is a difficult race for a horse that is 100% in every way. QR is too special to compromise his future. I'm thinking of Touch Gold, who grabbed a quarter in the '97 Preakness and still won the Belmont, but was never the same. His foot/feet continued to be problematic and he finished last in the '97 BC Classic. Unbridled's Song ran in the '96 Derby with a quarter crack and a bar shoe and he never returned to his initial brilliance. If there is the slightest doubt about the short or long term prognosis for QR's foot should he run on May 2, then he simply should not run.

JASON:  Trust Jimmy Jerkens.  If there is any doubt about QR's fitness/wellness for the race he will be withdrawn.  Therefore if he reports to the starting gate it will be all over bar the shouting.  Given your dilema as a magazine writer, I suggest that you simply make a provisional pick from the following quartet:

1) Friesan Fire ...a classic stalker that is likely to make first run at the leaders.  Larry Jones is now in the ranks of Derby maestro trainers so this one will be firing on all cylinders.  In the event of QR's absence the pace that he has to stalker should be softer.

2) Pioneer Of The Nile ...Bob Baffert the Derby genius is brimming with confidence as it appears that the surface transition (synthetic to dirt) will not be an issue.  POTN has turned back IWR twice in california and has that champion-like quality of winning repeatedly.

3) Win Willy ...Jason hear me out on this one (regard him as a fluke/toss-out at the peril of your already imperilled handicapper's reputation).  "killer" Willy has the most explosive last half mile closing kick in the field.  in comparison to Dunkirk for example he will not tire, but sustain his run and find an extra gear as the wire approaches.  His Arkansas Derby regression was a usefull regression in preparation for his best effort in the Derby.

4) Square Eddie ...from a pedigree/class angle this is your typical Derby winner based upon the pedigree profile of winners over the last decade at least.  He has become the dark horse in the field because of the shadow cast by his (too) rapid recovery from injury but he has proven class and the Lexington could have been just what the doctor(vet) ordered.

I Want Revenge seems to be safely held by POTN, General Quarters is not the most consistent horse although he has the class to win and Dunkirk ...well he could pick up a minor placing.  

The changing pace scenario in the event of Quality Road's absence could favour two speed horses, Regal Ransom and Papa Clem.  Both are stubborn front runners that will only yield grudgingly and not without a fight, so watch out here.  Jason, I have to tell you that it will be so much easier far all of us including SLEW.em.ALL (note that he picks 3 in order to improve his chances of defeating QR)if Quality Road is in the race.  It took you a while to see the light but somehow I thought that you would yield to reason.  Great blog as usual.    

A few more workouts to get through during the next few days will shed more light.

Does anybody else think that Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff are sitting a a big race?

Jason- a really tough one for you.QR was my pick also so this is all very disappointing.  The long range forcast for Louisville is  rain on Derby day.  That could certainly change, and we all hope it does, but we all saw how well FF ran in the slop.  I'd make him top pick if QR doesn't run.  We should all know later today what the verdict of the expert is after patching him.  That will certainly help. Making him a co-pick with QR depending on future status of QR would also be an option.  

Choose the horse with seasoning and who's done nothing but win. POTN has beaten everybody and adapted to all sorts of pace setups. He has all the credentials and is relishing the CD track. He doesn't win by huge margins but who cares? How can you knock a horse who keeps doing that kind of stuff?

"Well ? What are you going to do now Mr. Smart Guy?"  41 Emails letting me know Quality Road along with 22 text messages woke me up to tell me Quality Road has another QC.

Let me say this... If he gets in the gates I will be betting him like he is 100% because I know they would not put the horse in the gate unless they knew he could run safely.  When he leaves the gate he will not be thinking about his crack he will only be thinking about running.  But... I have to also prepare for the worst.  Should he be scratched I will move on to plan B.  Plan B will have me placing Musket Man and Chocolate Candy on top.  The pace without Quality Road in the race will actually be FASTER.  Let me explain why.  Regal Ransom will try to have his own way up front but there are several horses that would have to step up and press him.  That would be IWR, Freisan Fire, or Musket Man.  One or more horses will press Regal Ransom and he will be forced to set honest fractions which will set up POTN, CC, and Dunkirk.  I have watched the video's and both losses to POTN by CC showed CC gaining on POTN and running out of Real Estate.  The stretch and distance should be perfect for CC and should the jockey decide not to take him 8 wide I think he will have a chance coming home.  Musket Man should be in the lead at the top of the stretch...will he keep it or will his pedigree show up 200 yards from the wire?  He sure is a gutsy horse.  I guess Monday we will know for sure but I sure hope Quality Road makes it in. I would hate to see another superstar go down because of a damn QC.

I think QR still makes the Derby OK but he will finish behind both FF and DK imo as both of them are sitting on big races imo.

JASON:  There are so many twists and turns on this Derby trail that I wonder if Quality Road's possible scratch could entice the connections of Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama to reconsider jumping in at the last minute.  With QR out either of those horses could pull it off, no doubt about it.

For Big Red, I think FF is OK with any post from about 1 to 12 with his tactical speed - maybe anything out to 15 would be fine if he stalks. I am thinking more and more that we may see a Hard Spun move by Larry Jones except FF has better stamina most likely to carry his speed farther.

If Quality Road takes the trip to Kentucky, aside from checking out the horse, check out the people around him-(ie groom, etc). I don't think he will enter, he is out.

They say the crack was found when they pulled his shoes, probably so. But if you observed the actions of the stable help, you knew a few hours before something was off, or not quite right.

As to your pick, it's the Derby, go with your heart. My heart tells me "I Want Revenge" or "Chocolate Candy", best with your pick.  

Bill... BB may have seemingly recovered from his quarter cracks in the derby but by the time he hit the Belmont he wasn't fairing so well. From personal experience, these quarter cracks need to be given time to heal if you are to get the horse back to being completely sound. To continue to repair the cracks while the horse continues to put major stress on them does not cure the problem and imo only exasperates it. QR has had two quarter cracks now within a relativley short period of time. There is clearly a problem that needs to be addressed. Corrective shoes and staples only put a bandaid over the underlying issue. As dissapointing as it is to think that QR will not run in the derby, I would be even more dissapointed if they do run him.

Ranagulzion: would LOVE to see Big Drama in!!!!!!!! What an amazing athlete.......

Dray: I actually liked your post. If it makes any difference... I had a dream the other night that CC won the derby..: )

Not sure why everyone thinks there will be no pace in this derby. I am not so sure. In fact, I am thinking we might be looking at the opposite. I bet we will see some race horse splits.

Stay with your pick. The only thing that changes is that you'll get a better return

  I dont think that QR should be run in the Derby!!As far as the insult about Joe Talamo as said by"longwaytomay"Shame on you!!!I dont even think  The Shoe could have done what he did with IWR in the Wood  !!!

I'd say Pioneer and I Want Revenge have proven to be the most determined winners so far, leading up to the Derby.  FF seems to always be improving and we know Jones can train for the Derby.  Quality Road is still my pick, Jerkens seems pretty optimistic right now (anything can change) and I don't think this horse has reached his peak yet by far.  I'm going with Quality Road, PioneeroftheNile and Friesan Fire in that order.

Though I'm leaning heavily towards I Want Revenge in the Derby,my 3 top choices since Jan/Feb have been IWR,POTN & FF,and I haven't changed my mind about them whatsoever.Even with a healthy Quarter-crack Road in the Derby,I thought he was a bet-against because he'd have too much to overcome against the tough,seasoned Bulldogs away from his sandbox @ GP.

If QR doesn't make the Derby,that's too bad,but I'm just glad Draynay tossed-out my top 3 picks.And here's hoping he won't jump on their bandwagon either...Who wants the Dreaded Draynay Curse hanging over their picks' head?...Remember: Best horse of all-time Big Brown(Belmont fiasco),2009 undisputed Ky Derby winner Vineyard Haven(mystery? or jinxed?),and now QR's quarter-cracks...keep your distance Dray,stay away from my boys!  lol

QR was my second choice, but the this is the second crack and it can happen three times. Big Brown had the same problem too though and look at the way that turned out. But QR is not Big Brown. I would say go with I Want Revenge.

Draynay good point about RA, why doesnt Calvin Borel have a mount for the derby yet? Do you think the RA camp is going to run in the derby? If so she can beat them all if you have doubts youtube any of here races!

Too bad about Quality Road. I really liked him in Fla. Derby. It was reminiscent of Bernadini's performances in the Preakness, Jim Dandy, and Travers. While I do like I Want Revenge, a 20 horse field and the potential of another horrid break does not seem like he will be my primary choice. Still I love his finishing kick enough to have him in my wheels.

Lest we forget, I wasted plenty of lines in Jason's blog last year praising the legend, that was Pyro. This being said, everybody throw out I Want Revenge and hit them hard at the windows.

TO GREG J. AND MIKE: Thanks for your opinions about PP for Fire. If I had my choice, I'd pick the 10 hole. I'd prefer something in the middle of the field.

Fire are training. Also, I Want Revenge and Square Eddie are doing good.

LOL, Slew.em.All. You forgot Imperial Council, Dray was high on him and he totally was out of it in the Wood. Thank God he doesn't like Friesan Fire or he would be cursed. So I consider my pick safe.

I think it all matters if quality Road runs. If jerkens runs him then he must still be a contender and be a difference maker. But he does not run then I coulf see Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom one of them taking the lead. If it slow fractions then look out for rega. If it is a decent pace pace then I give FF, DP GQ and IWR and chance. If it gets real hot then look out for CC. Right now I am happy that I do not have to write a column but I do appreciate reading yours.

TO KEVIN: You posted, "...if you observed the actions of the stable help, you knew a few hours before something was off, or not quite right."

I could not agree with you more. Anyone who knows horses can look at this video (www.youtube.com/watch) and see the colt looks dull. Although he seems to be moving over the ground good in what little we can see of that work, it was a slow work for him. In fact, it was his slowest 5f work since January, and his second slowest since mid December.

Also, QR just looks dull on the walk back to the barn. Sharp eyes will see that he's kind of shuffling, not really picking up his front feet with any energy. Also, Jimmy Jerkens sure doesn't sound too confident about the colt's condition -- and that was before the second quarter crack appeared. Plus there have been reports the colt was off his feed after the Florida Derby and has lost weight.

I'm genuinely praying they don't run the colt in the Derby.

Polamalu43--CCandy or Mr.HS are a cut below POTN,I doubt they'll get over that hump in the Derby.Your boy,Carson Palmer has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl next year. lol

GO BRUINS!!! FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT!!

All you Pioneer of the Nile fans need to look at the gallop out in the Santa Anita Derby (hard to find, but you need to look at the extended gallop out). Mr. Hot Stuff ran past both POTN and Chocolate Candy. He has the pedigree, connections (now that Corey showed his usual brilliance and got off the horse) and the running style to pass them all down the long Churchill stretch. Not to wish anyone ill, but I hope Winstar is calling Angel right now. Johnny V would fit MHS perfectly!

Just terrible news. Whether one supports Quality Road or not, it would be very sad if this magnificent horse is not in the Derby. More than placing a bet, or making money, I want to see a Derby in which all of the top horses run, and run safely and to the best of their ability; and may the best win. Even if one is not part of the very vocal Quality Road bandwagon, you have to admit that the horse has star power, and the Derby without him would not be the same.

I trust Jimmy Jerkens, and his team, to do right by the horse. Unlike some, I'm still holding out hope that he can make the Derby. Of course, things to do not look great, with this being his 2nd quarter crack in a month. The good news, however, is that the first crack appears to have healed, so this new crack should be the only current problem. And if this new crack doesn't cause pain, or cause any change in the horse's mechanics, it could be possible for Jerkens to get a work into him and have him ready for next Saturday.

Before this second quarter crack, I really thought either Quality Road or I Want Revenge would win the Derby. I could imagine one of them running poorly, but I didn't see both running poorly. I believed if one of them ran at its normal level, the other contenders would not be able to keep up. Now, there is a decent chance QR doesn't start, and if Quality Road does make it into the starting gate I can see both QR and IWR running poorly.

After QR and IWR, the other contenders seem fairly bunched. If one looks at top performances, or top Beyer figure, there really isn't alot separating Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile, General Quarters, Musket Man, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, and even West Side Bernie, Summer Bird, and Mr Hot Stuff. Dunkirk has the top Beyer with a 108, although that is his only really strong figure, while Pioneer and Friesan Fire have shown themselves to be the most consistent big race performers. Yet, FF and Pioneer's Beyers are basically the same as the other horses listed, in the 94-104 range.

Jason, I know you like to play the longshots, and given the recent developments, I couldn't blame anyone taking a stab with a Regal Ransom (especially given the likely pace), or a GQ, MM, PC, CC, etc.

If QR doesn't start, IWR is cleary THE horse to beat; however, the "other" horses, who many have thought were "too slow", would only have one "big" horse to beat instead of two. Historically, in Derbys in which there is one "big" horse and that "big" horse doesn't fire his best, the winner has paid quite well: Li E Tee(17-1) over Arazi, Go For Gin(9-1) over Holy Bull, Grindstone(6-1) over Unbridled's Song, Monarchos(10-1) over Point Given, Funny Cide(13-1) over Empire Maker, and Giacomo(50-1) over Bellamy Road.

The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, and now possibly Quality Road. Casualties are part of the Road to the Derby, but we have already lost 2 brilliant horses, and now we could lose what looks to be the most brilliant/fast of them all.

And forget about the Derby for a moment. Old Fashioned will never race again, and The Pamplemousse will only return in January at the earliest. We just didn't lose these 2 horses for the Derby or the Triple Crown, we lost one for the entire year and the other for good. Something Jimmy Jerkens and Edward Evans may have to contemplate is whether to save Quality Road for the rest of the year and miss the Derby, or miss the rest of the year to run in the Derby. Hopefully, the two are mutually exclusive, and Quality Road can do both.  

Dray,

    PLEASE, I am begging you, Don't pick Friesan Fire(I don't have to worry about you picking Fire, Since you think he doesn't even belong), General Quarters, Chocolate Candy, or Summer Bird to finish in your top four...

    I Don't want the CURSE OF THE DRAY....

I WANT REVENGE & FRIESAN FIRE have great tactical speed. I think this is important at this point. PIONEER and DUNKIRK in a larger field could run into traffic problems. Jason I think your show confirmed this. If you have to reconsider QR I would believe the top two above ( IWR or FF ). Both of these horses are very mature and seemingly run well with their  jockey. They respond well. My pick is Friesan Fire. Again only if I submit in knocking down QR. If healthy QR is hard to pick over.

In the Inaugural Future Exacta pool, I made Dunkirk my key in $100.00 exacta boxes with Quality Road; I Want Revenge; Friesan Fire; and Desert Party.  So, I sure hope QR is OK to run.  I'm now wondering if leaving out Pioneeer___ was a mistake.  I hope Gomez made the wrong choice.  Tough Derby this year.

   I'm tired of people

  Im tired of people critizing Joe Talamo About his Age....Remember Steve Cauthen????

End of the road for Quality Road? I think not, this is not like Big Brown's problems last year according to those who worked on him:

McKinlay said Quality Road’s quarter crack was far less severe than the ones which affected Big Brown and Touch Gold.

“Compared to Big Brown, this is a nice picnic in Central Park,” said McKinlay. “And compared to Touch Gold, Big Brown was a picnic in the park. This is night and day and should be a minor deal.”

So if Big Brown was able to run in and still win the Derby, we should expect that Quality Road will run, and if you liked him that much, you should stick with him.

Hey Jason can you cut and paste from my comments last year about quarter cracks? lol.

There is a god, both to heal Quality Road fast and to give me 6-1 derby day instead of 5-1. Thanks

all you people worried I hope you can get QR all the way up to 8-1. Thanks to all, Draynay if your still at the bar now you can drink in celebration.

I remember alot of talk before the Santa Anita Derby about how "tired" both Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse looked. In reference to Pioneer of the Nile, some thought he looked "tired" after the San Felipe, while others added that he continued to look "tired" during training leading up to the SA Derby. What led people to draw these conclusions, because Pioneer certainly didn't look tired in the SA Derby, and he hasn't looked tired during recent workouts? Was the "tired" comments largely the result of his physical appearance immediately after the San Felipe, when he was pulling up and then walked into the winners circle?

Some also commented after the Flordia Derby that Dunkirk looked "too tired" and suggested that it would affect his performance at Churchill. Were people commenting based solely on his appearance on t.v. monitors immediately after the race, when he was covered with mud?

I just remember having heard alot of discussion about horses looking "tired" during the prep season (although I really haven't seen it discussed recently). For those that commented about horses looking tired, what led you to that conclusion? Do you have alot of experience around horses? As a warning to others, if you read comments from me talking about a horse looking "tired" or "off", you can probably dismiss it because I have never worked around horses.

One personal observation about a horse's post-race physical condition. The 1995 Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park was run in July, when it was very hot. The race featured the Derby winner, Thunder Gulch, who won the Swaps by 2. In 2nd was a relatively unknown horse proficient on both turf and dirt, Da Hoss. After the Swaps, and shortly after being unsaddled, Da Hoss collapsed. I watched, terrified, as he lay on the ground for minutes. Suddenly, Da Hoss popped back on his feet, only to collapse again shortly after. At this point, I thought the horse was gone, but sure enough he got back on his feet and, after being hosed down sufficiently, walked back up the stretch and around back to the barns. I was still worried for the horse, and wasn't sure he would ever run again. As it turned out, Da Hoss had suffered from heat exhaustion, made a full recovery, and won the Del Mar Derby about a month later.

Then there is The Pamplemousse. Many commented on how "tired" he looked immediately after the San Rafael, and then stuck with this opinion when picking against him in the Sham. After The Pamplemousse won the Sham by 6, many commented on how tired he looked in the gallop-out after the race. Then between the Sham and the SA Derby, there was not only talk about how "tired" The Pamplemousse looked in the Sham gallop-out, but also about how he looked "tired" and/or "off" in his workouts. While most, including many trainers/workers/jockeys at Santa Anita who had seen Mousse's workouts, thought he would run well in the SA Derby, there were some who strongly believed the horse was "tired" or "off". As it turned out, he was, in fact, injured.

I guess my point is that for every perfectly fine horse that is declared "tired" or "off", there is a horse declared "tired" or "off" that truly is. Last year, a few people noticed things off with Big Brown before the Belmont.  Some of you, but unfortunately not me, truly have an eye for how horses move, and can spot when things might not be perfect. Others, like myself, don't have this skill but comment as if they did. This creates a "pooling" problem, and, for me, the "correct" observations look just like the "bogus" ones.

Is any of this making sense?

What would be great for me, and maybe others as well, is that for those who make a comment about how a horse looks in its workouts/overall appearance, could you:

a) be as specific as possible; what looks off/good, why does the gallop/work look good/bad, etc.

b) say whether the information was from seeing the horse in person, on video, or through conversations with the horse's connections or from professional writers.

c) your experience/background with or around horses.

Although most of us are not at Churchill or other tracks in person during the mornings, modern telecommunications allow most of us to be able to watch, at the very least, each contender's main works. Video of the works is little help to me because I really don't know how to interpret whether a work is good or not, other than using the fractions and final time (which can be misleading). I've already made 3 comments about not being impressed with the latest works of Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, and General Qaurters, but I was basing my opinion on 1 writer at the DRF.

A final note, this is not directed at one person. I am not good at being able to evaluate horses based just on how they move, and know others on here have that skill. I would just like to identify who you are, because the last variables left to be evaluated are workouts/conditioning and post position (maybe weather).

Shelly Pedigree, You should have seen your boy Joe T. the other day. Rode an unbelievable race on one horse that was more impressive than the Wood. In another race he went to the inside and got stuck behind a wall of four horses and couldn't get out. It was a five horse field!! Bonehead move. He makes stupid mistakes one race and looks like a worldbeater the next. Not who I want on my Derby horse.

What race has FF run this year that he showed ANY speed at all ??? He didn't run a single 6f under 1:13 and now he is expected to run 10 lengths faster and 3/16ths further?

Regal Ransom and Desert Party finished in 1:50 over a fast track... where does that put them on Derby Day a 2:03 or 2:04 ? PASS!

Friesan Fires best Beyer is 100 on fast dirt... is that really a good enough Beyer when he earned it at 1 1/16th ?  Many of you are going to waste your money on this slow plodder.

Jason - hold off until Monday. Concentrate on The Withers tomorrow as it should be a great betting race.  Third race in the Guaranteed $250,000 Pick Four. Could use a winner? Think 3 or 4 of them could win it. Thoughts anyone?

QUALITY ROAD was your choice two weeks out and now has a quarter crack issue which may cause him to miss the Derby, or at the very least, cause him to miss his final Derby workout, and we all remember what Bobby Frankel had to deal with in Empire Maker's foot issue in preparation for that Derby in 2003. (Empire Maker missed some valuable training time and wasnt 100% for the Derby, but, did manage to finish 2nd. So, since your pressed for a magazine deadline, then why nothighly consider the horse that finished 2nd to Q.R in the Florida Derby......DUNKIRK....

Horses hooves seem to reflect general overall health. When people stress or are ill, physicians can see it in their hair and nails. You can see it on almost any mammal--the nails dry out and the coat lacks luster.

Perhaps it is less about "strong or weak" hooves, or but about stress. Surely all of the animals are feeling the emotional energy from the people around them--whatever that may be-- and some tap into it more than others. In the story about Secretariat's career was that he was with the same people all the time; groom and rider. That was a constant that reduced stress.

Another story talked about how some horses colic after they've been vanned. Maybe that is more a function of not moving for hours than stress--I don't know.

And maybe I'm way off base, but I would let this horse heal up completely and take him to the Preakness if he's sound. Or whatever next big race works for his style and ability.

In the meantime, watch out for Summer Bird in the Derby. That boy is going to rattle some cages.

Greg J. the only thing Friesan Fire is good for is to pull a beer wagon.

Dismal, dismal, dismal about the new quarter crack.  Pull QR out of the derby now!!  We certainly don't need anymore breakdowns post race ie Eight Belles.  It's time that all Horsemen keep the animals wellfare in the fore-front rather than just looking for the roses.

YES!! QR is OK I am back on the QR bandwagon YAHOOOO!! I dont care if that horse has a sprained ankle ice it, tape it up do anything you can without QR this race loses its superstar! Dray lay low for a week or else there will be another crack on his left side. Maybe they should put some nike airs on those feet of his! lol!

There really isnt much seperating FF and PC ? I would say about 7 + lengths on an off track.

newsline2, I agree with you about the horses health & stress level affecting the hoof. And I think you're right about trying to have the same people handling them. Some horses are going to be more sensitive to that than others. I think that's what happened to Stardom Bound - 3 trainers along with 3 sets of people in less than 6 months and she wasn't looking like herself. IEAH did a good thing giving her a rest.

I had QR pegged for third in this race just losing to FF for second, gaining on him with every stride but 2 lengths behind the winner, General Quarters. Placing FF second was tough, I had to overlook some steadfast "rules" but things have changed with Trainers the past few years and a good friend of mine really like FF.  I just don't think he will be that strong in the final 1/16th just holding second.  GQ wil rally from about 4th or 5th 4 wide coming down to the wire.  Makes a nice exacta $$$$$

The only thing I can say is that if they run this horse and he's not 100 percent and something goes wrong, there will be absolute hell to pay.

Surely that has to be factored into the decision the powers that be have to make and should be a clue as to his real condition.

Jason, at critical junctures like this, it's worth remembering what Damon Runyon, that wise and noted New York newspaperman, once supposedly said about horseracing: "The race may not go to the fastest or the strongest, but that's the way to bet." You don't have to be Nathan Detroit to know that prior to his first quarter crack, Quality road appeared to fit that bill of particulars -- the fastest and strongest. And even after the horse's first quarter crack was repaired, it didn't seem unwarranted to believe that the injury was something of a media firestorm that needn't affect the horse's chances. But now, with a second such injury -- on THE SAME RIGHT HOOF, not on the OTHER, LEFT HOOF! -- it's a bit much for me, particularly at what still are likely to be underlaid odds. Can he still win? Sure. Will he still win? Maybe -- or maybe not. Call me old-fashioned (yeah, I know he's already out of the race!), but all this talk about how Quality Road will be fine if Jimmy Jerkins enters him and runs him seems rather pointless, for even the most astute Horse Whisperer can't REALLY know how a horse nursing such injuries (plural, mind you) will do under racetrack conditions and racetrack stress while running a mile and a quarter for what for is apt to be their first and last time. If he's entered, it will doubtlessly signal Jerkins' belief that there's nothing ailing him and that he's hale and hearty, but until Quality Road transforms himself into Mr. Ed, Jerkins can't possibly know, unequivocally, how the stress of the race might affect his tender tootise. Lord knows Unbridled's Song, who nearly set a track record winning the 1995 Breeders Cup Juvenile, sure looked imposing before his quarter crack caught up with him in the 1996 KD. That year, he'd already won -- is this a coincidence or what? -- the Florida Derby, beating no less than Skip Away, Louis Quartorze and Editor's Note, in the process. He then won the Wood Mermorial, too, but when he ran back in the KD, he finished a dismal fifth. Now, regarding your comment about Dunkirk, I couldn't agree more. Yes, he was absolutely valiant in defeat against Quality Road in the Florida Derby, but the chances of him regressing come next Saturday seem to me about as likely as are his chances of moving forward. (And if he does move forward, will it STILL be enough for him win?) Looking back, although it may be too early to say for certain, the Florida Derby may emerge as a "negative key race," in so much as Theregoesjojo -- who had finished second to Quality Road in their previous race, the Founatin of Youth -- regressed markedly when he came back with a substandard peformance at short odds in the Blue Grass. (And yes, I know the BG was run on the synthetic, which Theregoesjojo may not have relished.) It may be a bit of a stretch, but it might be worth also noting that Brave Victory, who competed in the Swale at Gulfstream Park, one race before the Florday Derby, finishing fourth in the seven-furlong contest in what was his first race ni eight weeks. He seemed poised for improvement when stretching out to 1-1/16 miles in the the Lexington last weekende, yettook a step backward when failing to menace at any point. (And yes, it was his first shot on a synthetic surface, which he, too, might not have liked.) Still, might this additional point signify that the rock hard track and superfast times at Gulfstream that day left some of those that competed there phyiscally spent and weakened, rather than physically conditioned? I can't say -- although I'm certainly not willing to pay to find out. What I DO KNOW is Desert Party seems to be worth a flyer if one is willing to accept, as I am, that his last race, the UAE Derby, was deceptively better than it may appear. Yes, on that day he couldn't get to Regal Ransom, who he'd beaten twice previously at shorter distances. However, this may have been because of (a) an overly confident and substandard ride by Frankie Detorri (not the first time, if you ask me), in which Detorri was lollygagging about, waiting too long until it was too late; (b) speed that day being gigantic, with NO OTHER HORSE making up ground in the stretch, aside from Desert Party (Well Armed, a sadly beaten also-ran in his prior race at Santa Anita, cruised to an easy win in the World Cup); (c) the likelihood that trainer bin Suroor Saed and owner Godolphin did not have Desert Party fully cranked. It seems to me that in past yeas, these connections have been exposed with underprepared horses, but I don't think you'll find that this year, as Desert Party has had three successive prep races at increasing distances -- 7 furlongs, one mile and 1-1/8 miles. He's won a graded stakes race (the Sanford) as a juvenile and he's the $2.1 million progeny of Street Cry, who sired 2007 KD winner, Street Sense. In additiona, I will likely be using both IWR and POTN defensively, but the other horses in this perplexing equation that I expect to throw into the mix will probably be both Papa Clem, a tractable horse who showed a new dimension in the Arkansas Derby coming off the pace (although I'd like to see something better in terms of a Churchill workout) and Square Eddie, who I've never fancied previously. Regarding the latter, most savvy horseplayers know that visual performances can be very deceptive -- and ultimately meaningless. Still, in the Lexington, I saw a horse who broke in a tangle several steps slowly, made a threatening and seemingly effortless move on the backstretch while moving five or six wide before tiring late while never being hard-used, in what seemed to me was a workout under racing conditions for a horse who was "short." Most everyone is asking what will happen if POTN takes to the dirt, but one ought to be equally focused on this horse, who has oodles of back class and may be poised for a better performance than some might expect at very generous odds. Good luck to all!!!

Not good news, and I don't know what to think. If he doesn't run, I think POTN, Friesan Fire and IWR. If he does run, I think he will run his heart out, but there will be a lump in my throat if they do run him. Thanks for the pictures of the quarter crack Big Red. I think there are several horses who are going to be there at the end. There is alot of talent in this field.

Anyone who knows the Jerkens family knows QR won't be entered unless he's 100% healthy. From all indications, the two cracks were/are minor.

If Jimmy enters him, his odds will be up because of this controversy, and he'll make me more money.

If healthy, I have no doubt he's the best of this very good 3 yr. old crop.

Going to go out on a really long limb ; if Papa Clem wins the Derby, I like his chances of winning the Triple Crown.

QR will probably be fine and will not lose because of this if he is able to go. BB lost the Belmont because it was a humid 90 degrees and he was wasting energy kicking in his stall for hours and he was held up too hard at the beginning running him into another horse not to mention the horse shoe that disconnected. Murphy's law was against BB that day and it had nothing to do with a quarter crack that was sealed.

I am surprised that hardly anything at all has been said about Papa Clem.  He has finished behind POTN and IWR.  And he has proven himself on a sloppy track as well.  I am anxious to hear about his Saturday work. I honestly believe he is prime for a breakout race.  If not a win, he will be in the money.  I am including him in some exacta wagers.

Here is another horse that will be whisked off to stud to further weaken the Thoroughbred. It should be banned to put into a breeding career horses that have such tremendous weaknesses. It doesn't matter how fast he runs.

If it rains and there's slop, watch

out for Summer Bird, he's bred to

love it.

I hear people talk about Mr. Hot Stuff as having a great shot in the derby for mainly one reason. His gallop out. How many times have we seen this horse gallop out way past everyone else but can't seem to produce that kind of run DURING the race. Maybe its b/c everyone else is pulling up while he's still going full speed! lol. Gallop outs are for good measure in some sense, say if the horse was in some kind of trouble. He had no excuses against The Pamplemousse and his 46 n change half. He still couldn't close into that DURING the race. I think he's talented and still has a whole lot more maturing to do, as do most Tiznow's. But the Derby in my opinion is in way over his head at this point in his career.

What Quality Road's newest quarter crack does is give a couple of others a chance. A Quality Road without any issues would hand these their lunch. If he pulls this off we have something special, if he doesn't we know why.

Draynay, QR will not win the derby and the quarter crack will not be why. FF will finish in front of QR and probably Dunkirk this time also. Who has QR beat that wasn't just on the scene. At least FF has beat someone who has beat top contenders and beat him easily. Gulfstream was just a souped up track and doesnt mean QR is that great. He is no BB.

I laugh at the youtube footage people are posting in this blog from April 10th's Qualitty Road workout. That was 2 weeks ago and a his first work after his first QC, you don't think Jerkins said to keep it easy on him, Slowest work since Jan. da like that wasn't on purpose. Jerkins didn't seem confident, your derby horse as a QC da. After that work he posted a 1:12 bullet, explain that?? Get a clue people. His work out this weekend will also be slower then normal, oh no he's hurt??? No Jerkins will say "take it easy on him". Understand how horse training works and how certain trainers train and it does make sense. For those who think he's dead in the water, good for you.

With QR out sure changes the race. Tough try to decide a week out really sucks. I like CC, MM, GQ,PC to pull an upset and throw in PON,IWR,FF below them. Hard to gauge the desert  horses but they could possibly hit the board.

Summer Bird ? Lol... yeah there's a real threat for you... what about Advice ?  They send shivers down your spine ?  How about Desert Party with 120lbs. on his back going a 1 1/8th looked like 10 miles to him... what happens when we put another 6 pounds on his back and tell this miler to go another 200 yards ?  What about Regal Ransom who came blazing home on a fast track in 1:50 ?  Wait there is more plodders to talk about... what about FF who can't break a 113 in 6f or IWR who had to give it his all to put away West Side Bernie? Wait ! What about Square Eddie who ran a mile then dropped anchor... does anyone think this horse wants anything to do with 1 1/4 ? Wait ! What about General Quarters...lol he is a 20k claimer don't make me laugh. Hey but what about...Flying Private, Win Willy, and Mine That Bird that took 4th place in the Sunland Derby? Are you kidding me they belong in a claiming race at Thistle Downs. Papa Clem? lol.. he is still tired from chasing a horse with only 3 good legs. Oh... and what about Pioneer of the Nile folks he is too slow and will spit the bit 200 yards from the wire. That leaves Quality Road on top with Dunkirk, MM, Mr. Hot, and CC to pick up the scraps. What a strong group of contenders ??? Lol.. yeah right without Quality Road in the race its a crap shoot of average horses that ran average times all year.  Be honest if Quality Road had to scratch and Rachel Alexandra magically got in the race would you bet against her?

Just like last year a filly is better than all the boys except one.

Travis L.---Regarding your 10:16 A.M. post... Yeah, I said exactly that on Steve's blog yesterday. The new quarter crack is a potentially ominous development, but on April 10 they were dealing with a previous set of circumstances and Jerkens was concerned and cautious in his appearance and demeanor. The April 17 work was quite good.

Mike: I must respectfully disagree with you regarding BB. BB missed valuable training time due to his quarter crack which was a huge factor. He was rank, he was restless and he just wasn't ready for a mile and a half. How can anyone want to see QR run with quarter cracks is beyond me. A quarter crack is a serious issue. Heat or no heat... he is not sound and if he did win the derby would likely suffer through the triple crown trail and then be sent off to the breeding shed before we even know how great he is. I say give him the chance to heal and then put him back in the game when he is 100% and see if you can keep him healthy for a long racing career. That's what his fans want.

Draynay, I think you are undervaluing some of these horses. POTN, Friesan Fire and IWR are not chopped liver for starters. I agree that QR stands out in the group but the others deserve respect and are certainly capable of pulling an "Upset," no pun intended. You are not allowing for improvement in any of these horses. It depends on who "shows up" on the day they run and who gets the trip. As for Rachel Alexandra, I think she could beat all of them given the right circumstances. There is also the chance that a sleeper will wake up on the day of the race and shock the heck out of eevryone. Nothing is impossible.

Draynay, you didn't even mention I Want Revenge in your thesis.  Why?

Hey Jason, I know this is off topic, but do you know anything about how Benny The Bull and Denis Of Cork are doing on their comebacks?

Fresian Fire. Hes flying way under the radar right now and is better then people think.

Jason,

    Any word on "Cloud Nine" in race 8 at Aqueduct?, I am fearing the worst, but holding out hope, I really did not look good,  Looks like Cloud Nine took a misstep a couple hundred yards out of gate, then saw the colt lying on the ground at finish line, Terrible...

For all of you that don't want QR to run, what about IWR gashes on his head. Should we let them heal completely too. I'm sorry I love horses as much as anyone. This is the derby however a once in a lifetime opportunity. I promise you if horses could talk and understand they were playing in the superbowl they would not hesitate in saying "put me in coach!

Travis L,

    Are you joking?, I hope you are, Any kind of injury on a leg or hoof is life threating if they take a misstep or if it isn't healed 100 percent, Cuts on a head are superficial and are no where near as potentially serious.

    You say, "the derby however a once in a lifetime opportunity". Yeah, For the Owners, Trainers, and connections of the horse, The horse has no clue what race it is, it is another race to them.

     Jimmy Jerkens and Edward Evans would NEVER race Quality Road if his quarter crack wasn't healed 110 percent, I want a sound Quality Road to race only because I want all the best athletes out there, Not because "It is a once in a lifetime opportunity!"

    Quality Road has an extreme future ahead of him in racing and breeding, Do you honestly think they would put that at risk?...

NO Way....

Jason:

Your boy, Mr Fantasy, got his graded stakes win. I'm still not big on him at a classic distance at this point of his career, and think they should keep him at middle distances for a while. The Met Mile is ambitious, but this is a poor group of older horses, so he might fit. I think by next year he will be able to get 10 furlongs, especially if some of the better horses from this crop have been retired by then. Of course, if things fall apart in the Derby, the Preakness might make more sense.

The Withers provided for an interesting comparison. I Want Revenge had defeated Mr Fantasy in the 8.5 furlong Gotham almost exactly like Quality Road had defeated This Ones For Phil in the 1mile Fountain of Youth. Both IWR and QR stalked the other horse, and pulled away to beat them by over 8 (IWR beat Fantasy by 8.5 and QR beat Phil by 10+).

Now, based purely on raw times, This Ones For Phil appeared FAR FASTER than Mr Fantasy. The FOY was run in 135 flat, and with splits of 45 and 2 and 109 and 2, while the Gothan had much slower raw fractional times, 23 and 3, 48 and 2, and 112 and 3 before finishing the mile and a sixteenth in 142 and 3.  Now, based purely on these raw times, a variable many have been throwing out there, Phil' should have run Mr Fantasy off the track, and should have led early by 5-10 lengths, even w/o the greatest break.

However, there is a reason why the Gotham received the same Beyer, a 113, as the Fountain of Youth. The inner track at Aqueduct the day of the Gotham was extremely dull, and given how slow the track was playing, the fractional splits and final time were very solid; actually the final time of the Gotham was exceptional for that day. And I know "pace makes the race", but one simply cannot ignore that in the Gotham IWR came home the final 5/16ths in 30 flat (an average of 6 seconds for every sixteenth), while Quality Road took 25 and 3 to run the final quarter (4/16ths) of the FOY.

Now, Gulfstream was not super fast on the day of the FOY, so those early fractions, especially the 2nd and 3rd quarters, were sensational. Additionally, a mile might be stretching things for Phil' while I think it is in Mr Fantasy's wheelehouse (and was at his home track), and Phil didnt exactly have a nice trip in the Withers. However, Mr Fantasy won the race very easily.

I write this not because I am guaranteeing that IWR will crush QR in the Derby. In fact, before the 2nd quarter crack, I had QR slightly ahead as my #1 seed, and I will probably keep him there if he starts. However, I just don't understand some of the Quality Road supporters completely dismissing IWR. IWR has a top Beyer, 113, which is equal to QR's top, and his 103 in the Wood was after losing 4+ lengths (or 6+ Beyer points), otherwise he would have most certainly run a 110+ Beyer. I think the Withers also shows the potential pitfalls comparing raw fractional and final times. There is reason why there are Beyer speed figures, Thoroughgraph numbers, and Ragozin Sheets. If winners could easily be deciphered by raw times, these services wouldnt have a market. Yet they do, because track surfaces can vary greatly, and raw times are often not very informative.

Horses are at our mercy and we need to make the best possible decisions for their well-being. So if they run QR I hope it is because he is 100% where that foot is concerned. Curlin never won the Derby and Seabiscuit never won any of the triple crown races and they were/are among the best. Michelle Kwan never won the Olympic gold and she is acknowledged as the greatest figure skater of all time. Lots of Derby winners are nowhere on the list of 100 greatest horses of the 20th century. Although the Derby is important, it's never just about one race. Just my opinion.

Greg J... I wish I had as much faith in the trainers as you do. Unfortunately IMO QR's quarter crack could not be healed by next Saturday. It can be patched and laced, but not healed. If they decide to run QR, which I think they will.... QR will be running not sound! It is a repeat of last year and will be a heart breaker for all of us race fans.

freetex... I did not mention I Want Revenge because a lot of people are going to be betting on this horse and I hope they dump everything on him because he has no chance at all.  He looked like he peaked in the Gotham and in the Wood... wow it was an ugly race. 24.5 for an opening quarter? Who cares if he missed the start so did every other horse.  When he came time to run West Side Bernie was right behind him and he ain't no Dunkirk.  Coming home was slow the final time was slow... and he still hasn't proven he can beat POTN.  Is he going to finish 5th or 6th yes is he going to hit the board no.  Trying to stay near the front and running with the Big Boys will be his down fall.  The young jock will pull the trigger a little too early and he will come up short.  Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, I Want Revenge, and POTN are all being tossed by me... they have no chance in my book.

Travis L,

    You with that statement do not know what your talking about when it comes to injuries whatsoever. Haven't you ever heard the phraise no hoof no horse? That goes for every breed, no matter what the sport, if you don't have a sound horse, you don't compete, train or anything. Are scratchs bad, depending on how deep or bad they are, they can be, but compared to a leg injury, their nothing. My thoroughbred got knocked out of our entire show season because he had so many injuries, one being an abcess, sorry if i mispelled that, the other an infected puncture in his shoulder. That cut did knock him out, but it was on his shoulder, and any deeper may have caused him nerve damage. IWR may have a few scratches on his head, but compared to a quarter crack it's nothing again i should know because my TB had such bad feet when we got him, which was three years ago, that the farrier just recently got that nasty flare off his feet. Please next time don't make a statement that makes you seem completely clueless.

My suggestion Jason is to stop fighting the force and join the "Dark Side."  The Derby winner this year will have first prepared on synthetics.  POTN..."He likes it here.  In fact I think he might like this track more than he does Santa Anita.  He seems to lower his head and stride out even better here" (Bob Baffert).  Dam won by 11 at Churchill and Dad of course ran second in the Kentucky Derby.  If you don't like chalk you can always choose one of those who ran behind him (Chocolate Candy, IWR, Papa Clem).  The fact of the matter is as good as QR is (or was) he still would have gotten the "acid" test come derby day.  These are a tad bit better than Theregoesjojo and an over hyped, under conditioned allowance winner.

I think Musket Man can take it if QR doesn't show up.  I mean, there's no reason to knock this horse.  He won easily (ok..not really against anyone..but still) on dirt, his times are decent, and he hasn't hit his peak yet.  And he really is a good horse, I mean, he's had how many different people on his back and still won 5 out of 6??

Also, Coa has been so quiet about MM.  He had a chance to bail and ride GQ but didn't.  So go Musket Man!! Haha..I love him..

Karen 2, I agree with you about the severity of quarter cracks.  Kinda makes me scratch my head as to why Ernie Paragallo ever ran Unbridled Song in the Derby, seeing that his hoof problems were so bad.  And to think he ran him in full egg bar shoes!  Unbelievable.  Not surprisingly the horse never ran again.  It's sad that idiots like him ever get to own a horse as talented as US was....

Let's clear some air here.

Some of you must be out to lunch.

I'll spell it out with no humor or ridiculas comments so I don't confuse people on the point I was trying to make.(The IWR comparision was sarcasim, sorry some of you wern't able to pick that up. Quality Road should run in the derby based on if his training thinks he is ready, not on personal feelings of bloggers. Second of all bloggers and media should not be putting pressure on the situation making Jerkins to second guess himself or feel guilty of his decision. I feel this is the same as the PETA people blaming Jones for entering Eight Belles in the Derby, if you wan't to grow the sport you have to back the trainers decision to run, reguardless of your own feelings. Eventhough this is just a blog I don't feel making comments like "Jerkins better not race him or else" are right or neccesary. If you feel Quality Road should not run keep it to yourself, unless you feel like joining PETA, sorry I alway's relate back to sarcasim, for those who misunderstood the first blog, I don't really think you should join PETA, it was just a joke.

Greg J,

    I think your being a little over the top. I would agree with you if you said that horse know when something big is going on, because some do, but to say that they know they are going to race in the Derby, and want to race because the know that that is the race is overduing it. Some horse i will say do know when something big or important is going to happen or is going on. My sister's horse seems to know when he's in a show, vs the schooling ring, because he acts like a jerk when schooling, but when we actually show he struts his stuff like he's the best thing that ever lived. He doesn't however know if we are in the Medal Finals vs a regular show. He acts just the same in each, a jerk when schooling and a world class horse when in the ring. I will agree that some horses know they're good and they seem to project that to ppl, BB for example. I had a pony who had a superiority complex because she knew how good she was. Again, though a horse may know how good it is, or when it's time to step it up a notch, they do not know the particular event the are in and how much it may or may not affect their future.

I thank God that Draynay is staying away from FF. Sure jinxed QR enough. This field without QR is sure not a sub-par field. It's one of the strongest and most interesting fields we've seen for some time. Not just one or two good horses but several to give a close look at. No secret here that I love FF. And I would love nothing more than to see a Healthy QR run with him but if QR does run he runs the risk of too many things going wrong in the days and weeks to come. He is a very fine horse with a possible GREAT future ahead for him. Bottom line is that he needs time to heal. This is not an injury that you can just wave a wand and everything is a go.

As an ammendment to my post just above:

I wrote that raw times are "often not very informative", but what I should have written is that raw times are SOMETIMES not very informative (final times do not always reflect the quality of a performance, and comparisons can get tricky).

we will see by monday what quality road condition is. i'm a believer that jimmy jerkens will not run a sore horse. he has too much class to do that. i want the horse to run since i bet quality road in the future book at 125-1. but if he doesn't i know the right thing was done by the horse and jerkens will make the right decision. i wood rather see him healthy and compete later in the year because he has such a great future.

ever get a stone in yer shoe thats how qr feels now. imbalance causes cracks other issues will come to play in days to come.no way in may.look 4 win willy to play cinderella

How does pre-race drug testing performed at the Derby different from the Derby prep races? In other words, is the pre-race testing the same for the Forida Derby, the LA Derby and the Santa Anita Derby as it is for the Kentucky Deby???????????

Anyone who plays down how serious a quarter crack is fooling themselves. When a horse's feet start doing that you can use all the expertise in the world but somewhere down the road you have to quit on them. They do not heal when your training them, you can patch and stitch all you want. You can quote the trainer and shoer saying it's not serious, bull####! They are trying to put a positive spin on it cause they don't know how long the foot will stand up.

Wanda---Thanks so much for your input and candor! That this second quarter crack is anything but "ominous" is ridiculous. I hope QR goes forward, but that is probably not realistic.

Hey Karen in Texas I'm calling it like it is. I've been there done that and I don't care if it's a bottom claimer or a Grade One Stakes winner, no foot no horse! It is that simple either quit on him now or you will be forced to quit on him at some point and you know what? THEY know that to.

Just saw the update after his gallup this morning, he did bleed from the crack but is walking sound on it. The next 24/48 hours will be crunch time.

why no love for IWR, in my eyes the best horse by far in the field. a 113 in the gotham, then in my opinion about another 113 in the wood. most everyone else can barely hit 100, let alone back to back 110+ numbers. QR has beaten nothing at all while having everything his own way. but by the sounds of everyone here he will be one of the greatest of all times. he reminds me of pulpit and indian charlie. two wonder horses coming into the derby who left churchill as losers.

Pioneerof the Nile

All things considered he is my top pick based on the following:  

·While not showing the brilliant push button speed of some, he has quite simply accomplished more than anyone else, and has been exceptionally consistent including the defeat of several that he will face on Saturday.

·All his 8 races have been around two turns

·He has the breeding to be able to stay 1 ¼ miles.

·His trainer has already won this race three times and almost won it a fourth.

·He a fighter with the heart to win like another Baffert horse named Silver Charm.  Maybe he hasn’t gone any faster because he hasn’t needed to; he seems to do just what is necessary to win.  He may be capable to taking his game to another level if he has to.

Travis L,

    People don't have to do anything, and i'm sure as hell not going to back a trainers decision if i feel it's wrong. QR galloped today, and there was some blood, not a lot, but there was. IMO you don't run him now, give him the time he needs to rest. If QR trainer decides to run, i am NOT going to back that decision one ounce. Also what you just said is basicly saying is to back a decision that many think is wrong, and are probably right to believe so. Now tell me should we have back Dutrow's act of administering steriods to BB once a month, even though we thought it was wrong, just to promote the sport? Hell no. Buddy you might just want to get your morals and priorites straight.

Oscar,

    Agree completely with everything you just said. Nice post. Go POTN!!!

I m sticking with POTN--He has beaten every horse who came east and did well.But i do Like IWR to hit the board and desert Party,Chocalate Candy and Freisan Fire should be in the exotics.

Sunday Silence trained up to the Preakness in a bar shoe.  The ferrier just clipped the back and he went out and ran the race of his life.  Of course he had just won the Kentucy Derby so a lot more was at stake. I think he also had quarter crack problems going into the Belmont which I'm sure did not help his cause but I don't remember.  After the Belmont and some rest he came back to loose the Swaps Stakes.  Quarter cracks are part of the Tripple Crown.

now we have blood ,he will b scratched by tues,thank god.check a front on shot of his knees that will b the root cause of the cracks.crooked knee ,trouble eventually

O.k. all you people out there that own and train horses-can a horse heal a quarter crack in a week? That's the question pure and simple. If the answer is "yes," maybe it's doable. If the answer is "no," then that is the bottom line and the decision should have already been made. Or is the answer yeah they can patch it up but it isn't really healed. Then they hope he makes it through the Derby with no further damage and really heals the next two weeks up to the Preakness??????? Why do I feel this is deja vu all over again?

Wow, this Andy Beyer guy must be the smartest man in the world.  Every other post seems to quote one of his numbers as a basis to why this horse or that horse will win.  

Seriously, he must be a genius, for so many to take his numbers as seriously as some do.

My question is, why not just wait for the great Andy Beyer to make his Kentucky Derby picks and then mimic them?  

How is it possible to depend so much on his numbers ( adjusted as they may be, which more or less proves they are just an opinion ) and not his actual opinion on the KD?

Why bother with the strenuous task of watching video and combing through the pp's for every little angle?  He makes picks every year for the TC races.  Save yourselves the hassle and just write down his picks and head to the window on the first Saturday in May.

I wonder what Mr. Beyer's ROI is for Kentucky Derbys and just overall in his day to day handicapping?  His ROI must be extraordinary!  It would have to be extaordinary to have so much loyalty from a public that they would be willing to lay down there hard earned wages so blindly upon someone elses number ( assuming one of Mr. Beyer's cronies didn't handle the race with that KEY Beyer figure you are depending on ).

According to draynay or Draynay(or whoever his alter-ego is at the time)...'IWR has already peaked'..That's ridiculous.Since setting foot on dirt he hasn't even been asked for his best yet.Watch what he does when he really has to pick-up his feet in the KY Derby..BTW:QR is the one who has peaked,he had a hard race in the Fla.Derby first time routing,if he goes,look for him to bounce)...-'IWR's come-home time was slow'.-lol,if you check,he came home faster than QR did and he did that while having to check & alter his course and running into a strong headwind..'the final time was slow'..-By how much would he'd have won without all that trouble?.8-10 lengths?..how fast?..1:48flat or better,easily pulling away!!  If people can't see

how much of a Monster IWR is on dirt,then there's no hope for you..QR barely beat the allowance winner Dunkirk,and Dunkirk is no IWR,POTN or FF that's for damn sure..also remember 'Desert Party would win the Derby,because he beat his VH',and now he has no chance..lol...draynay or Draynay is a complete Joke,he has no clue on what he's talking about.He doesn't get it,and will never get.It's like trying to reason with Frankenstein!.. >'Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain'< ..what a Charlatain.lol.

Jason--u drank his Kool-aid leading-up to the Wood Memorial,making u believe that IC would make-up 8+ lengths on IWR and would turn the tables on him.lol,now that was hilarious..I was hoping you'd know better by now,but I've notice you mentioned that IWR has no chance in the Derby.Too bad my man,seeing what your boy Mr.Fantasy did in the Withers yesterday(1:34.4),makes IWR even more of a Monster heading into the Derby.We all know how IWR clobbered Mr.F in the Gotham.Let bygones be bygones,no hard feelings.Drop Quartercrack Road,he has no shot!! Especially now with his tender tootsies.  QR=Unbridled's Song or worse.

laz.... right on man! What does Todd Pletcher know anyway?  I mean just because he says Quality Road is the horse to beat doesn't make it so.  I am sure you know a lot more than he does.  Like ... who did Quality Road beat anyway?  So what if he broke the track record FIRST TIME EVER going two turns... I heard the track was juiced and super bounce rubber balls were installed to make the track even faster !!!  Just because Quality Road is really fast and runs other horses into the ground .... uhhh hmmmm...

Paula Higgins: No they cannot.

I think QR will be ready to roll.

    Today's Thoroughbred has become too fragile , All the breeders tend to go for are win early sires and speed ! Why dont they go to breeding Quarter Horses???

QR only faced a horse who was very green in the FL Derby and wont even be able to match him in the KY Derby. That track was very fast that day and QR is certainly no BB. FF beat a horse easily on an off slow LA track and the horse he beat has actually beat some real good horses unlike most of QR's competition.

TO Paula Higgins: You asked, "can a horse heal a quarter crack in a week?"

The answer can't be a cut-and-dried yes or no. A quarter crack is very, very, VERY roughly comparable to when a person tears a nail almost all the way from the tip to the back (i.e., vertically instead of across). We can all imagine how painful that would be, plus it opens the nail bed to infection. It fully heals only when the nail grows out again. In the meantime, all you can do is keep it protected.

That's what a patch does for a quarter crack. It protects and stabilizes the area with the crack until the hoof can grow out. It takes approximately 9 to 12 months for a hoof to grow completely out. However, modern patching materials, glues and farrier techniques make it possible for horses to continue to race with quarter cracks.

The main problem for Quality Road is not the two quarter cracks he's suffered since the Florida Derby, per se. He will recover from them in due course. The problem is the short amount of time available before the Derby. Ideally, you'd want to give everything a chance to settle and get the horse back into a normal training regimen. They don't have that time.

Here's a link (www.lubbockonline.com/.../spo_283315750.shtml) to a 5/27/08 article about the quarter crack Big Brown suffered before last year's Belmont. Read all those confident, reassuring statements by Dutrow, Iavarone and McKinlay. They sound virtually identical to what we're hearing this year about QR. We all know what happened to Big Brown in the Belmont.

TO:WANDA

Guess what! I've "been there,done that too"!

blind follower, i love you man. someone who sees what i see. and to slew.em.all, todd pletcher may know alot, but he surely doesn't know how to win the derby, does he. the future of horse racing will never be the same once QR wins the triple crown by open lengths in each race. you are right, all my money will now go on the greatest horse of all time, QUALITY ROAD.

All the indifference that Quality Road is still under consideration for the Derby. How many of you are calling for him to be scratched from the race? My god you people where are the calls for Doug O'Neils hide for considering running Square Eddie in the most gruelling race he will ever run in only months after suffering a fracture? The only comments I see on that are from those idiots who think he actually has a chance. Putting things in perspective Square Eddie has more a chance of being in serious peril than any. Hypocrits!!

laz--- what are u talking about?I think u got me confused with someone else....either way,go ahead and throw your money away betting QR. G.O.A.T?...lol,u must be new to this.

Thanks for the answers Wanda and Big Red.

TO: GREG J

With regard to QR health issues,I agree w/you. You're on target! Anyone who feels the horse should run if he isn't healthy is an idiot! I badly want QR in the Derby,but only if he's able.

sorry slew em all new 2 this site. i meant draynay. i'm on your side here. and as for QR, i was only kidding. i love IWR, by far the best horse at this moment in the field. i can only hope QR runs so everyone can see just how much better IWR is then the wonder horse, QR. is it too late to put QR in the hall of fame. laz

Travis L,

    First of all, the last time I checked this is a free forum/blog.  People can post whatever they think.  If they don't think Jerkens should run QR, then so be it.  They're entitled to voice that opinion.  Don't try and tell me what I should and shouldn't say.  Who are you to say such a thing?  No matter how ridiculous some opinions or thoughts posted by others on here might be, that's their right.  Get over it.  I personally would like to see Jerkens pass on the Derby with QR, but that's my opinion.  I'm not a top class horseman like him so he'll obviously know much better than me.  I know you mentioned how Larry Jones didn't deserve any of the bashing or pressure brought his way by PETA and I absolutely agree with that.  But then again, what physical ailment(s) did Eight Belles display before the Derby last year?  That's right none.  QR's situation is much different.  No matter how minor, he's had 2 quarter cracks to the same foot just weeks before the Derby.  If Jerkens runs the horse in the Derby, then he must feel the horse is 100%, but if something terrible happens to the horse during the course of the race or because of it (God I hope it doesn't), then he should be willing to accept the consequences.

    Second, do you really think these trainers/horseman care what bloggers think?  If so, you value your input way to much.  Hey Jimmy, if you're reading this, don't run QR in the Derby!!!  There, I hope Jerkens doesn't read this before he goes to bed tonight or else he'll be up all night tossing and turning.  Wow, after writing that, I'm inclined to wager on Hold Me Back in the Derby!

I dont think QR is going to roll so its time to find a new horse. I think logic suggests going with good jockeys that have fast horses thats why it might be smart to play hold me back and dunkirk because both are fast horses with good jockeys. Thoughts anyone?

I looked over the starters for the Kentucky Derby and this struck me right away.

The horses below have run 1 Beyer over 95 or none at all.

Advice

Chocolate Candy

Desert Party

Regal Ransom

General Quarters

Hold Me Back

Mine that Bird

Summer Bird

Musket Man

Papa Clem

Square Eddie

West Side Bernie

PIONEER OF THE NILE

Horses that have run over a 100 Beyer more than once.

Quality Road, I Want Revenge...........that is it !!!

And believe it or not 1 horse has 2 races over 110 !!! Quality Road.

Where's all the talent this year?   2 horses with Beyers over 100 and that's it?  How are horses that have trouble breaking 95 suppose to stay with a horse busting over 110 ?  Explain to me how that works....

ANTI DRAYNAY:

Yes,here's my thought,I think you're wrong!

HELLO CURLIN:

I agree! So many on here over value their input. The owners and trainers could care less. Are you paying attention Slew?

TO:LAZ

Just remember who you heard it from when IWR loses Saturday!

    Sorry to hear that Quality Road is out of the Derby, He will be back for another day, His connections had no other choice, He had tenderness this morning and is not 100 percent, Hope he heals well and quickly....

At least his trainer and owners care enough about this horse to withdraw him from the race, many praise to them, alot of owners would patch it or throw on a bar shoe and keep going.  I remember a horse last year during the triple crown races with numerous quarter crack issues;  ended up being eased in the Belmont Stakes for what I believe was a hoof related problem (IMO) and IMO shouldn't have run at all that day.  Allow me to put it this way;  running a horse with a quarter crack is NEVER a good thing; I don't care what they patch it with that hoof is still weaker than the other three which = Not Good. If it was meant to be Quality Road will be back.

LDP,

   I don't know what TRAVIS L's problem is but, he posted my name (GREG J) to a comment I didn't write, the one you were responding to me about(Where you said I was "over the top"), I sign my name GREG J.(with a period), My post @ 6:28 is me responding to TRAVIS L  comments, The one about God and calling me a horse whisperer(@ 7:01), is NOT by me LDP, I would never say, That the horses actually know what each race is, CRAZY....

Jason,

   Is there any way you can confirm that the post at 7:01 p.m. was not WRITTEN BY ME(By E-mail?), I don't want to make a mountain out of a mole hill, but it bothers me when an idiotic comment is posted then attributed to me,

Thank You....

Friesan Fire,

     The Future Kentucky Derby Winner posted a blazing final blow-out this morning!!!

Friesan Fire – five furlongs in :57 4/5

Also, Some more works this morning:

Chocolate Candy – five furlongs in :59 1/5

Pioneerof the Nile – five furlongs in 1:01

Win Willy – five furlongs in 1:02 2/5

    I am telling you, Fire will dominate the derby, Man, If I am wrong, I will be ashamed to come back here to post my comments, That is how positive I am in This incredible athlete, Mr. Friesan Fire......

Well there you have it. nay nay is down to Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, and Desert Party from the list he guaranteed was 100% certain to include the winner of this years Derby (posted on a previous blog). Since then he's repeatedly stated none of those three have a chance so he's out of bullets. That list was 10 horses long so he pretty much covered all his bases or so he thought. The others who have fallen by the wayside were Imperial Council (he bashes him terribly now),Stardom Bound, The Pamplemousse, Vineyard Haven, Mr. Fantasy, Quality Road, and Rachael Alexandra. The nay nay jinx is in. The good news about all this is that there is no need for him to come around anymore. He's out of options. See ya next year nay nay.  

Quality Road out of the Derby, I knew that trainer Jimmy Jerkens could be trusted to make the best decision for this awesome racehorse.  Well, to me, it seems like Larry Jones will finally and deservedly breakthrough with his first Kentucky Derby win in Friesan Fire.  A win after two second place finishes in three consecutive years with a modest string of horses would be a pretty amazing accomplishment.

Ranagulzion is rooting for that outcome with a great deal of confidence in QR's absence.  In fact that seven weeks break between his last start and the Derby should invigorate Friesan Fire for a real crack at the Triple Crown, should he prevail in the Derby.  Mark you, which ever horse wins the Derby is going to find Big Drama an awfully high mountain to climb in the Preakness.

I'm glad Quality Road has been pulled out of the Derby, even though personally I'm disappointed that we won't see this brilliant horse prove his worth. Still, the welfare of the horse always comes first and bless his owners and trainer for seeing that...now all being well, it's on to the Preakness!!! Fingers crossed :)

Good for you Mike R. I'm sure there's lots of people on these blog sites that have "been there done that". So what's your point?

  I hope QR heals Ok and we'll see him again soon ! I still think breeders need to focus more on stamina and durability !! There are some that do! But It seems many just want to turn out a fast 2 yr old and make a quick buck ! Ihope I dont see the day the Derby is run at a 1 1/16th!!!

draynay,

There are at least 9 horses who have run over 100 on the Beyer scale and all have done it at 1 1/16 or longer. That is a signifigant number and much more than the "Where's all the talent this year? 2 horses with Beyers over 100 and that's it?" statement you made above. Now that Quality Road is out according to your mis-information that leaves only one. Quit trying to deceive people here. Is it because the many many picks you have made over the past months and all the bashing you did to others were for naught? I don't believe there is anyone left that you picked to win in this field (lord knows over time you have chosen many). The rest you have repeatedly said could not win. Better luck next year I guess.

Good for them! They are doing the right thing for the horse. FF's work was amazing, man I never owned or trained one that could work like that.57 and change that's serious fast. How good is this horse? I hope we see QR later in the year, BC maybe?

Greg...you were right about Jimmy Jerkins and I am extrememly happy that he pulled QR from the derby. He just couldn't be 100% even though it is very dissapointing. I must say this has been a year of disapointments and we haven't even started the triple crown trail yet. It started for me when my favorite "The Pamp" was out due to injury. Then we lose the talented Old Fashioned and now QR won't be able to make the Derby. Well, one thing is for sure and Ranagulazion hit the nail on the head...whoever does win the derby will have some huge challenges ahead of them when they have to face Big Drama and QR. Should make for some fun racing.

This changes everything!

Who will set the pace? Probably Regal Ransom. But who will be in the first flight right behind the leader?The defection of Quality Road brings to mind other pre-race favorites who were forced out of the Derby only days before the race. In 1957 , the favorite Gen. Duke was scratched; in 1962 it was another favorite Sir Gaylord and in 1966 the overwhelming favorite, Graustark was scratched.

Will Freisan Fire stalk the leader? Will I Want Revenge be up close? In both cases I think the answer is yes.

If the pace is quick watch out for Hold Me Back and Win Willy

Glad they took him out. I hope he heals quickly and we see him on the track again soon.

Great news that Quality Road's connections have decided to pass the Derby. Give that colt a chance to recover from what obviously was an extremely taxing race in the Florida Derby. Maybe he can make the Preakness, maybe not, but at least now the colt has a chance at a future career. (In any case, I didn't have him in my top four for the Derby.)

With QR out, it's unclear who's going to set the early pace in the Derby. I've been calculating who has the best raw closing speed, and was planning to post the data when this and Steve's blogs refresh. But I'll put the info here and can always repost it later. As always, make of this data what you will.

Best raw final 2 1/2 furlong closing times for colts who have won a Derby prep at 1 1/16 miles this year:

I Want Revenge - :29.56

Friesan Fire - :30.12

Pioneerof the Nile - :30.13

Advice - :30.37

Musket Man - :31.22

General Quarters - :31.29

Chocolate Candy - :32.34

Win Willy - :32.34

Best raw final 3 furlong closing times for colts who have won a Derby prep at 1 1/8 miles this year. I'll leave QR in as a point of comparison:

General Quarters - :35.55

Pioneerof the Nile - :36.45

Quality Road - :37.06

I Want Revenge - :37.17

Hold Me Back - :37.20

Papa Clem - :37.46

Chocolate Candy - :37.49

Musket Man - :38.01

Dray,

How about you don't pick anything at all this year so that all the horses pointed for this years' triple crown races actually get to run before you put the ultimate jinx on them? Just a thought. I told you this was going to happen to Quality Road. Thanks for messing up the Derby picture. :)

anti draynay I'm with you on that one. I like Dunkirk, he's done nothing wrong since his last start in the FD. He seems to be moving forward with his works etc. My only concern is he may not handle the gong show which is the crowds, noise Derby day. He was washed out after the FD which could just be inexperience, you never know. He is so talented to do what he did with so few starts that I hope he has the mental maturity to go with it. Square Eddie missed some time because of sore shins but his first race back was a good one and he is battle tested as a 2 yr old. I like him more now that QR is out. I have a Derby Future bet from Vegas on SE so I hope he wins so I can go cash it!

Wista: don't forget about Chocolate Candy.... he could be closing fast and may be the sleeper in this race.

Wanda: No kidding huh???? What a workout by FF. I would like to see FF win for Larry Jones. FF is all business.

the wiz and gw bushwacker....lol... you guys like to run your mouth but the fact is on Derby Day I will have the winner and you won't.  I have to face facts that you can ONLY handicap the horses that end up running IN THE RACE.  I have liked a few this year and was ready to go to the mat with Quality Road since March but now you have to decide who is the winner based on who is in the race.  Dunkirk is your winner and horse of destiny. Yes... I know he is a Unbridled Song horse and yes I know he has not raced at 2 but who cares?  There is not much left but a bunch of allowance horses.  Dunkirk has only raced 3 times and there is no reason to believe he will not improve in his 4th trip.  Any move forward for this horse puts him out of reach for the rest of the field.  Will I also have a Super ticket with Chocolate Candy on top...yes but all my win money will be on Dunkirk.  Even the second place Florida Derby horse is better than this field of average allowance horses.... it hurts to say but here it is... Go Dunkirk !!!

Dray,

    By your standards, You could personally get in the gate and outrun these horses by yourself, lol....

I cannot wait to hear what you have to say when Fire wins((I can already predict it, Dray:"If Quality Road was in it, Road would have won by 10 lengths..."

Dray,

    You had to do it, Now Dunkirk is doomed.....

FYI,

   Friesan Fire:

    Working five furlongs in a blazing :57 4/5...the 3-year-old son of A.P. Indy  turned in splits of :11 1/5, :22 1/5, :33 3/5, and 45:1/5. Friesan Fire galloped out six furlongs in 1:14...

    “The work might have been perceived as a little quick based on traditional times, but Friesan Fire did it so well and within himself,” Vinery general manager Tom Ludt said. “Gabe wasn’t really (urging) him, so we’re as happy as can be. Gabe thought he went in a minute. When he hooked up with Larry, he said, ‘What did I do, boss? A minute?’ so he thought he was going easy.”

    “As of the Monday before the Derby, we’re happy,” Jones said following Friesan Fire’s effort. “He had a good, long work at Keeneland the other day, which was quite a bit faster than Hard Spun had done. Then he came back and was only a tick off of what Hard Spun did here, plus I worked Hard Spun in company.

"This horse was doing it by himself. He’s telling me we’ve done right. You can look at him and tell. He’s kind of glistening all over. I think he’s ready, and hopefully, if this works for the Derby, then we’re going to be in really good shape for the TRIPLE CROWN, because we’ll have a fresher horse than most everybody else.”

     “I was over there on the front side, and it didn’t look like he was working that hard to be honest with you,” Ludt said of Friesan Fire. “I would have never have believed he went in :57 4/5. He’s doing fine. He didn’t drink all that much water. He’s feeling good.

    “He has been such a professional,” Ludt said. “He has gotten better and better every race, and he’s just eating this up. He’s a ham, and he seems to be handling everything perfectly. I’ve got nothing to complain about, which is a little scary. He’s doing super. We can’t ask for anything else now except for a good post position and a good break.”

    I honestly wish Quality Road, Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse were in the derby, Then when Fire wins, NOBODY could bring up any excuses...But that is racing(Even though I hate it), Injuries are part of it....

Everyone is racing for second place...

Lol...even after running a 57 Friesan Fire still couldn't run under a 113 for 6f.  Some things never change.  I hope all you Friesan Fire fans bet this horse big time.  When the real running comes he is going to have nothing in the tank.  Dunkirk is the horse to beat now.....like it or not !

Dray,

    I don't know where you get your numbers, but in the remaining field left, 15 different times they ran over a Beyer of a 100...

(I think you put too much stock into these numbers, there are so many other varibles that are more important), Just my Opinion..., But since you are on your sixth prediction for this Derby Season, I will stick to my system...

I will tell you whats spooky. That poster who posted on here a few weeks back that a big favorite would not run in the derby. That is some serious intuition or something.

Greg..I'm a little concerned FF went to fast today. I realize they said he went easy..but that was blazing... was it to much??? How about Rachel Alexandra??? What an amazing filly. Did anyone see the picture of her this morning on the live blog? She is breathtaking.

Curlin,

I agree with you, but I just choose to grow the sport instead of damage it (even if it's only a tiny blog),doesn't matter. I choose not to throw stuff out there that has no possible scenario to help horse racing and if anything it only undermines it. Simple as that!

Uh Draynay he worked 5/8 NOT 6. He GALLUPED out 6 fur. Big difference between working and galluping out.

Dray,

Great! You have now doomed yet another horse. You call this field nothing but a bunch of allowance horses. You run your mouth too much trying to demean these fine animals running in this years Derby. By your ignorance alone, it leads me to beleive that you couldn't shovel their s... Jason is right. Quit embarrassing yourself. Tuck tail and pack it up for this derby season.

Karen2,

     I don't think it was too fast, Remember Hard Spun's final blow-out a couple of years ago was a little faster, Fire is a better horse then Spun, and has a better pedigree.  This is The way Larry Jones trains, and Fire did it on his own!, This guy is coming out of his skin, He is Due for a HUGE run...

To the person who posted about Square Eddie- THANK YOU!!! While I truly believe that he has been throughly vetted and cleared, let's imagine the what-if of something happening to him. I think it would make last year's uproar seem like a whimper. For those who love horse racing, may all the horses, but ESPECIALLY Square Eddie, return safely.

TO:WANDA

My point is you almost always give the impression that you know everything. Just like someone on here made the valid point that these trainers/owners could care less what anyone thinks that posts here!

Travis L

How are you making the sport grow?  Is it damaging the sport by being concerned about an injured horse running?  I don't get it.  As for Quality Road, I just don't think that if they hadn't pulled him he would have run well.  He has got to have sorness in that foot because of the bleeding.  The stress of the race would have caused more damage and possibly put him out for several months if not longer.  Horse racing is criticized because of injuries and breakdowns which are, unfortunately, part of the game.  They are taking measures to lower the risks but taking a chance in the Derby with Quality Road isn't good for the sport and most importantly, not for the horse. These horses give their all and the least they are owed is good care for their injuries.

Karen2,

That poster, Sitting Bull, was right on, wasn't he?  If he's N.A., I'm not the least bit surprised.  Hope he posts again and tells us another vision!

Injuries happen, too bad he would have been one of the favorites and his last 2 races were terrific.Looks like there will be no chalk favorite so the payoffs should be good.Going to real enjoy the race no bet have no idea who will win.

How do you know I don't Mike?

Dray,

Thanks for picking Dunkirk now. I thought those Florida Beyers were inflated anyways. You made the Derby a little less difficult to handicap now. I'm doing the Richard Dreyfuss in "Let It Ride" when he asks people in the clubhouse who they like in the upcoming race and then later crosses them out from his program... Quality Road - SLASH, DUNKIRK - SLASH, Vineyard Haven - SLASH LOL!

Here's my play for the weekend.

$100 Oaks/Derby Dbl : RACHEL ALEXANDRA/ I WANT REVENGE, FRESIAN FIRE, PIONEER OF THE NILE. $20 SAVER ON DUNKIRK & DESERT PARTY.

$2 DBL ON ALL For everyone else I left out.

Also,

In the Oaks, if it's sloppy, which most likely it will be, hammer the FG OAKS exacta. Flying Spur has run huge in the Off going the two times she's run over it. She's out of one of my favorite fillies to race, LAKEWAY. And should be a decent price in a small field

Karen2: Did you catch Rachel Alexandra's work? Double wow! I'd give my eye teeth just to watch these good ones in the morning.

Karen 2,I had the vision a favorite would  bow out and I also said that the winner will be a surprise-his odds will be double digits.

TO GREG J.: Fire went so easily this morning, it didn't look like he went that fast. Have you seen the video of his work? In case not, you can see it here: www.kentuckyderby.com/.../videos

Re the video of his mile work at Keeneland, remember how it was all the colt doing it on his own, working on a loose rein, and that Saez never move his hands from the colt's withers? It was much the same for this work until about mid stretch when Fire appeared to drift in slightly. Saez uncrosses the reins and shakes the left rein at him a couple of times.

As for the "slow" gallop out, Saez didn't actually go on with the colt. He stood in the irons shortly after the wire and slowed the colt to almost a fast canter. It was more like a post-race cool-down gallop than a true gallop out, and that explains the 1:14 6f fraction. I wish they had let the vid play on a little bit more, because I wanted to see Fire's ears on that easy cool-down gallop. Looked to me like they were pricked. :)

The colt did get a tick tired, which is good. Don't want the colt to be too fresh on Derby day and take the chance of him being rank in the big race.

Saez knows the colt well by now, having ridden him in all three 2009 starts, plus riding him in all his morning works. Fire appears to respond very well to Saez. Now we just have to hope for good luck, a good PP, a clean trip and no mistakes by Saez. If it all comes together for FF, and another horse still manages to beat him, I'll still never regret for one minute having picked him to win the Derby.

FYI,

    $100,000 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs Thursday, April 30. Two of my favorite two year olds:

"MISSION IMPAZIBLE"

        &

"GATOR PROWL"

Guarenteed Exacta......

Throw in, "Kitty in the Bag" for the Trifecta....

The quarter crack has been a terribly disappointing development. I give full respect to Jimmy Jerkens and Edward Evans for making this very difficult decision. I hope Quality Road makes a full and quick recovery. He could play the spoiler roll in the Preakness or Belmont, although it may be more prudent to go ahead and give him a long recovery period.

Each year I try and prepare myself for contenders being declared and not making into the starting gate. Unfortunately, the number of horses withdrawn this year hasn't been that different from most other years, although the quality of horse we have lost is higher than in most years.  It can be a tough game.

Regardless of how arrogant some of the Quality Road supporters have been, I HATE seeing any legit contender miss the race. I plan on attending the Derby and was looking forward to seeing all of these wonderful horses, and was excited to see a potential superstar in Quality Road. It sucks.

The Quality Road development is just more proof why the Derby Futures bet is something I will never put money down on. Of course, some of you will win your Futures bet. Yet, I have always had trouble declaring a Derby winner in Jan, Feb, or March. Some on this blog have proclaimed, with just about near certainty, that Quality Road was going to win, and win big. The fact Quality Road was witdrawn and never even made the race does not change the fact that those who have been declaring Quality Road the definite winner are wrong. Part of picking a winner is being able to corectly assess a horse's durability. At least this is so regarding the Futures bet. On this blog, those that have been touting Quality Road as the guaranteed winner obviously are allowed to choose a backup to root for or bet on. Churchill Downs and other simulcast sites will not deny someone a Derby bet just because the horse he/she has been has been diefying was withdrawn. However, for those that actually put money on Quality Road in the Futures, there are no refunds.

I had Quality Road in my #1 spot, slightly above I Want Revenge, but I have always respected the other contenders, and never guaranteed that QR would win, nor did I place money on him in the Futures. The fragility and unpredictability of this sport makes the Futures bet appear very unattractive to me. Of course, that's also why the payoff for the Futures bet is sometimes so good.  

What it all comes down to is this...unlike most of you I am having to adjust and consider how the race changes without Quality Road in the race and I am willing (unlike most of you chickens) to tell you here and now Dunkirk is the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Even the 2nd best horse at the Florida Derby is better than these average remaining horses.  I have my Dunkirk/Chocolate Candy Exacta ready to go !!! Do you really think your horse can beat Dunkirk....lol... just remember your horse is no Quality Road.

Relva-- I think you're just intimidated by the knowledge some folks on here posses regarding horseracing.That's why you constantly try and bash other people's opinions and post nothing but meaningless banter which shows you're out of your element here. lol..we all know your input carries no weight..Mike Irrelevant...too funny!

Jason--- R U going to host a live blog from Churchill this week?..and who's your Derby pick now that QR is gone?...Peace!!

Fire will set a new track record for the Derby 1.58 and win by 15 lenghts!!Any horse ready to jump out of their skin is sure to break the record!!Lucky for Fire that Nicanor isn't running.

Greg J..... maybe you don't remember but Hard Spun got tired coming down the stretch and got beat in the Derby.  He was a miler just like Friesan Fire.  Watch him spit the bit when asked to go on down the stretch.

TO:WANDA

Tell you what if you are under the impression that you know everything,you are fooling yourself!

DRAY-KIRK...Do you remember Hard Spun coming out of NO WHERE and Threatened WtW before a STUNNING move by Street Sense and hitting the board 2 times in 2 straight triple-crown races????? Oh and let's not forget the G.O.A.T. (Barbaro)...The One who didn't have a chance to Prove it!! Everyone was saying how Matz was Crazy for approaching The Derby on a 5 wk. layoff!!! Barbaro was FRESH and if you recall...Besides winning handily, the most impressive thing was how he gallopped out about another 1/4-1/2 mile WOWWW!!! FF has not Even peaked or run HIS Best race YET!!!! I'm not even going to mention his 445 mudder rating if KD 135 is run on an off track, FF could absolutely go WtW just on how FRESH he is!!!! But all things being equal...sorry 'bout QR maybe The Belmont to SPOIL FF's quest for TRIPLE CROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dray, Hard Spun ran second in the Derby and Classic, both are 1 1/4. He would have won the Derby had not the red sea of horses parted for SS who got a dream trip. In the Classic he ran some darn good fractions and was run down by the monster Curlin. Had Curlin or SS not been around last year HS would be the winner of both those two races by a lot. SS was lucky, Curlin IMO was the better of the three, and HS was as unlucky as you can get. This horse is a throwback to those we had before the breed started to be weakend. HS could sprint, mile or rout. He could run on an off track, dirt or poly. He could run insane fractions or stalk if need be. To say he got tired in the Derby is just stupid, he was unlucky that SS got a perfect trip while he took the heat up front. To say he was a miler is even more stupid since had Curlin or SS not been around HS would've easily been the best three year old, and won both the Derby and Classic.

Dray

PLEASE DO NOT jump on the IWR wagon, Man you are as cursed as it comes :-)  

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

First,unlike yourself I don't think I know everything about everything. I've only made one wager in my entire life on racing. Second,I don't have a problem  when I'm wrong picking a race. When was the last time you ever said you were in error? You are one to talk about "bashing people". Have you read your posts? You must be joking,right? Let me know how IWR works out for you,ok? lol

HELLO 2TIME VALLEY PLAYER

I also like FF alot.

Dunkirk can't close against the likes of POTN, Chocolate Candy, and IWR.  Not on that sandy track.  Look for POTN and CC to move way up in Beyers.  

I think QR's connections are to be commended. They did the hard thing and the right thing. They have a great horse and I hope we get to see some more of that greatness down the road.

So here goes my list: IWR, FF, POTN, Dunkirk and I am not sure anymore what order except that Dunkirk is not number 1.

Sitting bull: I am impressed with your visions. What do you think of say......Chocolate Candy??? Just curious.

Wanda: Unfortunately I didn't catch her work..just the photo posted but she looks just amazing. We would be a couple of eye tooth missing chicks sitting at the track watching these horses work... I honestly think I would need to have a travel nurse with me though because I don't know if my heart could take all that greatness in one place.

    I think it's a bit early to say that Friesan Fire is a better horse than Hard Spun.  Hard Spun did win a GI race and finished 2nd in the 2 biggest GI races in North America (KY Derby and BC Classic).  I'm not saying Friesan Fire can't do that, I'm just saying he hasn't proven that yet so I wouldn't say he's a better horse at this point.

    As for the Derby, Dray curse be damned, I'm still at this point siding with Dunkirk.  I still think the race sets up pretty decent for him.  He'll be sitting mid pack behind a reasonable pace.  He runs the turns as well as any 3 year old in the Derby if not better so he won't lose the race there unlike many who have in the past.  With reasonable fractions, the speed horses won't be backing up nearly as much as they usually do, which tends to help closers stay out of trouble more in big fields.  He won't have to run those ridiculous middle fractions to stay in contention.  Prado will not get him in trouble.  If he can be within 4 lengths at the 1/4 pole and I think he will be, he will outkick them all down the stretch.  I know he only has 3 starts and didn't race at 2, but to me that's a knock on seasoning not ability.  Curlin tried to win the KD on 3 starts, but in his 1st 3 starts he had things pretty much his own way, much like QR did.  In the Derby, he found some trouble and ran a pretty good race to finish 3rd.  The Derby set him up seasoning-wise to win the Preakness.  I think Dunkirk is much different than Curlin heading into the Derby.  In his allowance race, he was real wide on the 1st turn.  I don't think it was as bad as some think it was, but still, there was some adversity.  In the Florida Derby, he was well back early and had to run those big middle fractions and he had to try to close on that speed favoring track, which again, helped him gain some seasoning through a little adversity.  I know his lifetime starts are only at 3, but with the experience gained in those starts, I think you could almost double it.  I will run POTN, FF, IWR, RR & HMB for 2nd and run those horses back again for 3rd along with WSB, CC & DP.  I might throw in another bomb or 2 in the 3rd spot, but haven't decided just yet.

    To Sitting Bull, great vision, but outside of FF, IWR & POTN all the horses in this year's field will be double digit odds so it's really not a stretch.  With the winners of the last 3 KY Derbys being single digit odds, this is tied for the longest streak since the late 70s when there were 9 in a row, so it's time for another horse to pay $22 of more for the win.  Dunkirk might be single digit odds, but I don't think so.  I'm thinking about 10-1 to 12-1.  At this point, I'll take it.

   What a great 2 days of racing ahead of us.  Hopefully one of the bloggers on here hits big.  BTW, if Cannoball enters the Aegon Turf Sprint bet him hard.  He'll win.  If the late PK 4 on Oaks day includes the Turf Sprint, single Cannoball and RA and try to beat Zenyatta in the Distaff.  I know it sounds crazy, but if One Caroline enters the race and can shake loose on the lead, mark my words, Zenyatta won't catch her down the stretch.  Good luck to everyone.

draynay said it best early  PUNT .hats off 2 Jimmy, he showed a lot of class not waiting till tues .Steve its time to jump on willys wagon b4 its to late!

No Mike R I never fool myself and that's a fact bro! You're always saying that you have "3horsesthatrun inminorstakesinFlorida" Ya know what I've owned and trained 50 times that number over the years and I imagine so have alot of people who come on this site. You don't know me so don't even think I don't know what I'm talking about cause I've lived most of it in the racing world. You on the other hand never stick your neck out and actually make any kind of statement regarding racing. You just slam people with your snappy one-liners. I asked you 3 questions in a polite way months ago but you don't seem to have the answers and yet when you called me out I was honest with my answers. So I'm going to assume that Slew.em.All is right. You want to talk to me like an adult no problem. Otherwise your just making noise.

Dunkirk will be 7/1 or less.  I wouldn't bet him to win if he was 50/1.

Curlin, yes, the race does perhaps set up better for Dunkirk now that Quality Road is out, although that doesn't necessarily make him a winner, as the race pace will probably also set up more favorably for several other horses, too, who won't need to close for so far back in the pack. (Similarly, the scratch ought to further compromise the chances of the deep closers this year, it would seem to me.) Sticking with Dunkirk for the moment, one ought to keep in mind what has previously noted: Can he win? Yes. Will he win? Maybe. Despite the change in recent horse racing training dictums, due in no small measure, to the increased fragility of the breed, there's still a reason why horses without a 2-year-old start hasn't won the derby since Apollo, in 1882. That was the 8th Derby; this year will mark the 135th. (It would, however, be interesting to know how often such an effort has been ATTEMPTED. I'd certainly like to know. Does anyone have the answer?) Moreover, Dunkirk doesn't even have an allowance win to his credit and while the horse doubtlessly shows a world of talent, is this the horse that will finally break Pletcher's 0-21 skein in the Derby? Again, maybe -- or maybe not. Good luck to those you if you wish to find out -- at underlaid odds. Count me out, though. What I do know is that Desert Party, who won a graded stakes race at 2, on the dirt, has had three preps this year, albeit in the UAE and he, too, will likely be helped by the scratch of Quality Raod. By virture of his last race, we know for a fact that he can hang tough with the expected speed in the race, Regal Ransom who he's beaten twice previously. He's likely to be 15-1 and is looking good: Godolphin's assistant trainer was quoted as saying that his workout Saturday was "the best he's ever worked." And yes, most of us are well-advised to read such comments with a jaundiced eye, as trainers never seem to DOWNGRADE their horses chances pre-race, but in so much as Desert Party is regarded by his connections as a horse who typically works well in the a.m., this comment ought to viewed as an encouraging sign. (Does anyone remember two years ago when Street Sense -- sired by Street Cry, as is Desert Party -- was credited with what many felt with the "best" workout before the Derby? I know that I do!) Anyway, I can't say I have "visions" like some of what may happen, but I think he'll make some noise. Good luck to everyone!

Perhaps FF should have left a little something for next week's race.  Has a horse coming off a seven week lay off ever won the Derby?  Go multiple stakes winners.  There are no sleepers here. We have a grade 1 winner at 2 and 3...a horse that finished 2nd in the Breeder's Cup...a horse that has graded stakes earnings on 3 different tracks...and a grade 1 runner up and winner on two different coasts.  It's show time.  

Larry Jones is NO DUMMY!!!! Finally he has a horse w/all the intangibles and a little bit of intrigue. Not only does this horse reap of CLASS/PEDIGREE, but WHO REALLY knows what The FIRE is capable of??? Certainly not DRAY-KIRK...his True pick will be LUCKY if he is able to run in The Belmont. As impressive of a win 7wks. ago was in The Slop, What if it were run on a Fast track??? Now the preps and Friesian Fire is left to wallow in the Barn, quetions start to lament...Who is going to be The Morning Line Favorite??? IWR...Impressive in The WOOD- Looked like he could stop and start and not miss a beat or a fraction!! QR-DNKRK- The duel down the stretch in Tampa. POTN- Just keeps...keep'n on, despite no challenge to speak of nor PACE!!! CC- The 'Ol Wise Guy pick...PEAKING at the right time and really gaining on POTN but just comes up too short...definitely looks like distance is not an issue. Let's turn to the works...FF works a mile and a half and Jones commented he was barely breathing...then he arrives...not only does he impress but he absolutely TORCHED Churchill in 5 furlongs and gallops out admiring THE Towers of Churchill and some on-lookers, completely un-abated and Totally hamming-it-up. The FIRE is a legit THREAT not because of WHAT HE HAS DONE...but because NO ONE REALLY KNOWS WHAT HE IS TRULY CAPABLE OF!!!!!!!!!

Anyone want to see what they look like when wagering on their first Derby? Check this out:

www.youtube.com/watch

Thix is a crack up!

dranay,

Give it up. You have emphatically stated that no horse sired by Unbridleds Song will ever win a Derby no matter what. Now you are on the Dunkirk bandwagon? You are a joke to say the least. Change your mind when it looks like you are going to be wrong. Talk about an inferiority complex.

draynay,

First of all you are the ultimate in diharrea of the mouth. Nobody spews more crap than you. As for having the winner on derby day we shall see. As high as you were on Big Brown last year did you have the Superfecta and Trifecta multiple times like I did? I'm gping to bet with confidence again this year and don't worry little man it don't matter squat what you think.

To Draynay:

Dunkirk was purchased for 3.7 million and will be making only his 4th lifetime in the derby! Now why would you pay all that money and only race him 3 times prior to the biggest race in North America?

Dunkirk is still eligible for non-winners of 2 other than maiden or claiming! Plus his trainer has such a great record in the Derby! Sounds like a great bet to me . . . not really!

Re the Beyers: They can be helpful but are not the answer. Beyer, on TV before the derby a few years back, anointed Bellamy Road as the next "superhorse." Now that was really prophetic.

We only have a few days left to pick the Derby winner and by the looks of what is left you have to give the nod to Dunkirk.  Sooner or later if enough "quality" falls off the board you have to set aside all the "big drama" and select the best "mousse" still running. The best healthy horse is not even in the race and we all KNOW that is Rachel Alexandra.  So lets see... in this years Derby we have no Rachel, Mousse, Drama, or Quality.  Lol...you can say that again.  So what does that leave us in this glorified allowance race. Well lets take FF first.  He is a decent horse when running against average competition but he couldn't break a Beyer over 100 until he splashed in the mud and his work was fast but he pulled up so fast as soon as the work was over I thought the rider was going to fly off.  Derby Day will be proof that the horse is a miler and wants no part of 1 1/4.  IWR has added blinkers? This horse peaked in the Gotham ... big deal who cares his run in the Wood was good but this horse has peaked and I am passing...his works have been very average.  What about POTN you say? He looks good but when they come for home he will just not be fast enough and his Beyers are just not up to par. The horse that benefits the most is Dunkirk.  Just watch Dunkirks Maiden race and you will see the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  The Derby will look just like it.  There is no real speed in this race we all know that and when it breaks down between the 6f and mile pole Dunkirk will pick up the pieces. Without a little mousse there will be no drama because there is no quality in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  "Dunkirk"

Revenge is the horse if he runs like he did in the Wood its over.Bullet work means 1 thing he's ready. Should be a great race.

Dunkirk has 'The Move' and displayed it against a speed-favoring track. Sure, he hung against Quarter Crack Road - wide. But these hangers tend to do better next time out, just like the turf horses who 'needed more'. It would make no difference if Quarter Crack Road was in the Derby or not - Dunkirk is the next "rule breaker". His only other threat is I Want Revenge, anyway.

GREG J.,

You were right on when you told me "mark my words" about Draynay. He is just full of excuses as well as other things. He says that this field is nothing but allowance horses but he goes and picks one over real winners of graded earnings. Just can't get a grasp on his logic. Guess he really doesn't have one. I'm done with him anyway. He says that there is no speed in the race but I beg to differ now that Join in the Dance is in. I think some real fractions will be set this year. What are your thoughts?

Jason,

What are your thoughts on the fractions that may be set now that Join in the Dance is in?

Horswld

He ruined it for everyone on another forum last year. A LOT of us were high on Big Brown before this wooh-hah arrived.

About the speed, Join In The Dance will be right up there with Regal Ransom. It IS a possibility that Regal Ransom is of quality speed and may steal the race. Don't laugh. It's possible.

Lone Speed,

I agree that if speed holds it is possible Regal Ransom could steal it. I like Join in the Dance's speed too. Man he's fast. His last race he seemed to be a little rank out there on the front end. I think that if he can settle a little more he will do better. I may put him somewhere under Friesan Fire. Don't know yet.

Ok folks it's time for a nay nay reality check. What you have here are just a few of draynay's comments from his previous posts about what he really thinks of Dunkirk. Read them and get a good laugh. This guy is not to be taken seriously, he can't even remember from one day to another who he likes. So now all of a sudden Dunkirk is his chosen one?  

"Every time I talk or think about Dunkirk I get sick to my stomach. The same feeling I got last year when everyone told me how good Colonel John was last year."

"I am saying a colt from Unbridled Song CAN'T win the Derby."

"Dunkirk ? You have to be kidding!  Dunkirk is not a derby horse and the total lack of foundation makes him a toss in the Derby."

"No races at 2 and only 3 races going into the Derby?  There is nothing here... move along."

"Dunkirk... you have to be joking."

"Can the Dunkirk fans please explain WHY you want to see this tired horse run again before the Derby ??? Even if he was to run again do you really think he would be a factor running AGAIN in the Kentucky Derby?  If you do you need to be told these are animals and not machines.  ANYONE who witnessed the Florida Derby saw Dunkirk was a very very tired horse.  Enough already...let it go."

"Dunkirk...lol.. get real."

"If Pletcher was a football coach he would have been fired long ago. 0 for 21 in the Derby tells you he has no idea how to get a horse ready for the Derby."

"For the record Dunkirk and Old Fashioned have no chance at all in the Derby and any money bet on them will be a complete waste."

"I just saw Jeff Siegel place Dunkirk No. 1 on his derby list.  Is he serious? SIMPLY unreal."

This guy is a hoot!! He has no idea what he's talking about ever but he loves to bash you.

Take a look at what was behind Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.  He beat Theregoesjojo at 3-1.  Wheredidjojogo?  The remaining field was 35-1 or above running for "Black Type."  This means that Dunkirk will be in front of the two "Bird" horses entered this year.  PLEASE bet Dunkirk!  He better be every bit as good as his hype as he is about to get the "acid" test of his life.  I don't care what his Beyer is.  I'll take a grade stakes winner over a Beyer any day.

IWR, a man against boy's, it will take a huge effort 2 beat him!!!

LMAO GW!!

Nothing against Dunkirk, I kinda like his chances but you are SOOOOOOOO right about draynay. Anybody in here who takes him the least bit serious should wake up. Any of us could make pick after pick and eventually have a shot at finding the winner. Great stuff gw, thanks for the laugh.

This Derby has some great betting possibilities. There are more real racehorses in here than last year and that makes it much better. Like any year there are some who don't belong but it's not like last year when you could throw out 19 of them and come up with an easy winner. I'm waiting for the post draw tomorrow then will go from there. Good luck to everyone, yes even you draynay. Enjoy the race we all wait for every year!!

I Want Revenge as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby? Don't make me laugh. He is going to disappoint. However, if you don't believe me, bet a lot of money and watch it go up in smoke. IEAH just sold part of their stake in him. They're not stupid. They know when to cut their losses.

     I think Dunkirk is overrated He's a nice horse I just dont see him winning Saturday!! Go IWR and Talamo !!!

Wanda,

I want to say that you NEVER come off like you know everything.  You come off as a very knowlegable person.  Always pleasant and always informative.  I can't believe that anyone would think you were arrogant about it.  It's just sour grapes.

Friesan Fire gets P.P. # 6, I will take it!!!

Desert Party gets #19, Nowhere to Hide # 18, Flying Private #20, Throw outs, in my opinion....

Thank you Monica V. I so enjoy our conversations over the past year as well. I've been humbled to many times in the racing game to do a 180 now.

Watch Pioneer Of The Nile win the DERBY and the triple crown, Draynay! Wouldn't that ruin your day? I was on Quality Road's bandwagon, too! Too bad he had that 1/4 crack! Truly a great horse with a chance. But remember CURLIN? He came back big time, didn't he, Draynay? Twice Horse of the Year!!! QR might come back like Curlin without a Derby win. I hope so myself. But life goes on, and let's hope all of us can enjoy Saturday, the winners, and safe trips for all - no matter the outcome.  Hopefully, no repeat of last year's Derby disaster! No 8 Belles, please!

Good luck to all and a safe trip!

Still no CURLIN, though! :-(