This has to be the most depressing derby in recent memory !!!Unless you had MTB .My sister did but she owns a Macaw !! LOL !

I think it is a superb  story, it is heart warming and touching. It might just be the thing that racing needs. However does anyone else feel let down. Not in the race itself but  there was something to me that just felt off. I think it is the same thing that has been  causing this feeling for years now. There are just too many horses in the field. You have so many posers weren't there at least 2 or 3 horses running in the Kentucky Derby that had only won a maiden race. That doesn't feel right to me. However I do hope that Mine that Bird and his connections can go on and have a fantastic Triple Crown run, racing needs them right now.

My own random thoughts:

Isn't great to see Calvin Borel inthe winners' circle?

I am so suspicious about certain trainers. My first reaction to the scratch of I Want Revenge was . . . "this really has a smell to it". Sorry.  I learned later that the horses in Derby 135 would undergo the most intensive blood and urine post-race testing ever administered in the annals of this great sport! Also, no steroids for this Derby . .another first.

How could more money be wagered on Dunkirk than on Pioneer of the Nile?

If Dunkirk was trained by Joe Smith and was purchased for $37,000 rather than $3.7 million, his entrance in this race would have been ridiculed. He went off at 5 - 1. Oh, please . . he is still eligible for non-winners of two other than maiden or claimer!

I wonder if Bill Mott was pleased with Desormeaux's ride on Hold Me Back.

The track condition had a great impact on the outcome.

Rachel Alexandra is the best three year old in the country.

Who will show up for the Preakness? What will the track odds be on Mine That Bird be in the Preakness?

I pray for this great sport. The racing industry needs to address the problems and create a national board with a real "czar" so that there will be consistency in regulations throughout the nation

Here's the last paragraph from Steve Haskin's Derby Report: 48 Hours and Counting:

"Although no one was paying attention, Mine That Bird, who likely will be either the longest or second longest priced horse in the field, actually turned in a smooth, strong gallop this morning, which caught the eye. There is nothing striking about him physically; he's just a smallish colt in a plain brown wrapper, but he does move well."

I read that and completely ignored it...along with most of us. I also did not pay attention to the fact that Borel was riding...and what an amazing ride THAT was!!! Congratulations Bird, Borel and the connections of this "smallish colt (gelding) in a plain brown wrapper"

ss I posted on another thread, it is Calvin Borel's understanding of not putting young colts going a mile and a quarter in a large field for the first time into either front end or internal duels - This takes a toll on seemingly very good colts - Calvin has learned how to take back and make one long gallop - I am just upset with myself for not fully appreciating Haskin's workout comment about the Bird - Haskin wrote that he "has a smooth strong gallop which caught the eye.....nothing striking physically about the horse, but he does move well".  This was a well bred horse, who has had some great handling, not only in Canada by Coty, but, by his current trainer.  However, it really goes back to that long gallop along the rail by Calvin which sealed his victory.

Calvin"Sweet Fancy Moses" Borel. Getting the red sea to part once was superhuman. Getting it to part twice is nothing short of divine intervention. Hats off to the Cagey Cajun who deserves the Darwin Award for proving a rider must evolve or perish, and a Field's Award for affirming the shortest distance between two points is still along the rail.

I really do hope he goes to the Preakness. I belive this is the kind of story racing needs. Over the past hours I've seen this little guy develop a huge fan base. I'll be rooting for him on the 18th...

Here's another quote, this time from David Schmitz posted 4/27/09, in an article named KENTUCKY DERBY BY THE NUMBERS: DOSAGE DILEMMA...

"The two Derby candidates among the top graded stakes earners that check in over the limit by Dosage Index are Win Willy and Mine That Bird. The former sports a DI of 5.00, and the latter has a DI of 5.40"

I did NOT ignore THAT piece of information... I simply crossed him off my list of "possibles".

That will be the last time I pay any attention to Dosage Index.

Where's everybody this morning??? The near silence is deafening... Come on shake off the cobwebs. This blog is usually so alive I'm amazed it's so quiet this morning. I know we're still in shock but get over it and let us know what you think.

Someone has a pitiful memory.  The most depressing Derby was last year with Eight Belles.

Calvin is simply the BEST.  It makes such a great smile in my heart that he has pulled off the Oaks/Derby double that has been won by so few jockeys.  No other jockey seems to be so sincere and caring in his concern for the horses.  Calvin rocks!

    After learning that IWR was scratched from the Derby my heart just wasn't in it !! I ended up using POTN as my key horse in the exactas ! So many good horses ended up out for one reason or another !It could have been a whole different derby if they had all showed up !At least there were no catastrophic injuries this year! Congradulations to the winning connections of MTB !!!

Woody, you are so right!

After last year's Derby I felt like giving up on the sport. I love horses and the tragedy of Eight Belles left me with such a bad taste in my mouth...

Not so this year!!! Who does not LOVE a David beating up on the Goliaths of this sport? This story will live on forever. Only in America!!!

Had Mine That Bird for wps, missed the superfecta as Musket Man popped in there to ruin it for me.

Reason for betting Mine That Bird was the fact Borel wass riding, and as pointed out, he was onfire Friday and Saturday Morning plus a top jockey will always add 10 to 20 beyer on past performances of a horse ridden previously by second rate jockeys.

Next reason was the fact in his previous starts, Mine That Bird, had made moves but not gonna up in time, suggesting he had a chance at the derby distance, and running onto faster splits.

Most of the field form wise looked to be 1 and 1/16, cept for a few but those few had run in races where the split was +48-49s for 4/8ths while MTB hadnt been able to catch the slower +48-49s 4/8ths races, and with some of the 1 and 1/16 bred horses in the derby having good 44-46s splits for 4/8ths it seemed logical to take a few horses that can rate.

Preakness should be another huge superfecta payout, as the 1 and 3/16ths distance has its own handicapping challenges.

cheers

Racing proved yesterday that it is a very elitist sport. Apparently, the only horses who should run in the Derby are those who have very high price tags and owners who have more money to spend than they have sense. Listening to Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey discuss the entrants on ESPN was very disturbing - the comments they made about the lesser known horses sounded jut like something out of junior high. No, not every horse is as regally bred as another. And no, not every horse commanded a six or seven figure price at auction. And no, not every trainer has an unlimited budget and jet-setter owners for clients. So what? Everyone who races Thoroughbreds dreams of one day running a horse in the Derby. And if and when they finally get a horse to the big race, they should not be made fun of or dismissed without a thought or with snide comments like those from Moss and Bailey. This is America, where we can dare to dream and reach for the stars. No doubt Mine That Bird, if he runs in the Preakness, will be dismissed by those "in the know," once again. Well, they didn't know anything yesterday. And next year these same experts will dismiss another group of animals as "not belonging." Well, if Churchill Downs allows their entry in the Derby, then they DO belong and should be accorded all the respect that the more famous horses receive. Congratulations to Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, who rode one of the best horse races I've ever seen, to Chip Woolley and the owners and all the connections of this marvelous little gelding. Score a big one for the little guy!

To Pedigree Shelley,

What was depressing about this Derby? A great little horse won in magnificent style, and no animals were injured in any way. You have a short memory apparently. Last year was the most depressing Derby in recent memory. Maybe you should just be happy for the winner and his connections.

ALL: I posted this late yesterday. May as well repost it here for those who may have missed the news. Friesan Fire lost all chance at the start when Papa Clem came over sharply and body slammed him sideways into the horses on the inside. The Daily Racing Form is reporting that Friesan Fire was stepped on, which tore his left front quarter badly, and the colt came back bleeding. Now a few morning-after thoughts: I'm a Beyer speed figure skeptic, and this race only strengthened my skepticism.

Simply as an analytical exercise and to test various handicapping systems, I put together a big spreadsheet for this year's Derby. (First time I've ever done this.) For each horse, I patiently collected all the Beyer and BRIS speed figures, all the other BRIS data, and data from 11 other prominent handicapping systems, including Ragozin sheets and the European Racing Post. I added data from all the Derby historical "% of winners who..." stats, pedigree info, trainer and jockey route stats, workouts, etc.

By the time it was done, I accumulated 38 separate indicators for each horse. I then assigned a simple color code to identify positive, neutral and negative factors, then totalled all factors for each horse.

Mine That Bird had only two positive factors (lifetime record and post position). He had 12 neutral and 23 negative factors, by far the most of any horse in the field. Next highest negative factors were Join in the Dance and Nowhere To Hide, both with 15.

Mine That Bird had the second lowest lifetime Beyer. Lowest 2009 2-turn Beyer. Lowest average 2-turn Beyer. A zero average BRIS speed figure for a 2-turn prep. The second lowest BRIS "prime power" number. He had the worst numbers in all of the other systems. He had the highest Dosage DI and CDI. His last work before the Derby was only a 1:02 5f, 19th of 26 that day at the distance. His trainer and jockey stats were neutral.

Bottom line: Not a single one of the predictive tools that most handicappers use gave this horse any shot at all. The only two positive factors were: he was one of six horses who had won four or more races lifetime, and he had one of the top four winning post positions in Derby history.

One last note: Dunkirk did stumble a stride or two after the break, but he was otherwise in the clear and did not get banged around the way several horses on the inside did. Friesan Fire had the worst start when Papa Clem literally slammed him sideways at least two lanes. That caused FF to get squeezed in the tangle of horses on the inside. Then Saez hustles him up in an attempt to get position, pulls FF sharply toward the rail, then pulls the colt out behind a wall of horses, then pulls him back and around Desert Party on the outside. By then, Saez had no horse left, and he eased FF in the stretch. It was a textbook case of a terrible break followed by an impatient ride from the jockey.

What a great Derby!!!!

The cajun man did it again!

Mine That Bird just proved not everything grand comes in a fancy wrapper.......

I too am suspicious of the scratch on Revenge with the stringent testing in place this year.

Unreal...is all I can say.  Borel won that Derby all by himself. Like you said Jason the RAIL was the place to be all day and Borel took advantage.  My biggest handicapping angle for the derby is simple who can run a fast 6f split in a 1 1/8th race.  I DIDN"T EVEN LOOK at either Bird in the race and still wouldn't have bet it but Mine That Bird ran the fastest split of any horse in the Derby at 1 1/8th.  Mine That Bird getting pinched back worked out very nicely and Calvin did the rest riding the rail until all the cheap speed fell apart.  This much I can tell you.... Big Drama will be waiting at the Preakness and there is nothing CHEAP about his speed.  I will be betting big on Big Drama to make up for all the money I lost on this Derby. It would have been a total loss without my little bet on MM to SHOW.  Other than that it was a pure butt kicking for me.  Things that I will take away from this Derby are simple race horses race trying to get a horse ready for the Derby with a 7 weeks break is nuts.  Todd Pletcher had a little bad luck with Dunkirk nearly falling down but it seems he really has no idea how to get a horse ready for Triple Crown races and my thoughts on Unbridled Song horses are true ... you could have a field of 10 of them in the Derby and they still would not hit the board.  Next year I am going to do what I said I was going to do this year... I am placing 100 bucks on Calvin Borel every race he is in and will count my winnings at the end... I have a feeling I will be much further ahead then I was this year....shame I didn't do it this year.

Minutes before the derby I told my husband my gut told me a long shot was going to win. My husband replied” would it be something if the little horse Mine that Bird squeezed through the horse and win".

This is definitely a derby to remember.

Talk about flying under everybody's handicapping radar.  That "bird" was really flying under Calvin Borel ...brilliant performance by all concerned.  The Kentucky Derby truly levels the playing field for all contestants.  Mine That Bird earned his way into that field, possesses true Derby pedigree (never mind the dosage index) and ran a career best to blow away the field under a sublime rail-skimming ride from Borel.  

Those elitists who scoff at humble horseowners/trainers and would prefer to manipulate aspects of the sport to favour the rich and famous should be ashamed of themselves.  This is what the game is all about, equal opportunity for prince and pauper provided that your horse qualifies to be in the field.

Let me repeat it here, that the last Canadian champion 2YO that also finished last in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile was Wando and he came back in 2003 to sweep the Canadian Triple Crown.  Could Mine That Bird follow the same path, only this time in the American Triple Crown races?  To me this adds more facination to this years 3YO championship because this horse does not appear to be a flash-in-the-pan.  A Canadian 2YO champ is supposed to be a pretty decent racehorse as history should have shown us.  Some of the greatest ones were bred there; Northern Dancer, Nijinsky, The Minstrel, Deputy Minister, Dance Smartly and Awesome Again to name a few.

I wish the connections all the best however it has to be said quickly that they will have a steep mountain to climb in the Preakness if Big Drama shows up in Baltimore.

Zookeeper, I looked up the dosage numbers before the Derby also and then had to check them again today. The only reason I can see that MTB's figures are so high is because of his female family. But evidently no one told the horse that's what he was supposed to follow! His sire lines figures are a lot lower.

I admit that I blew it! Many years of handicapping and betting horses seem to have been wasted when I realized that horseplayers were hoodwinked by a flim-flam man or men! If Mine That Bird had not been permitted to darken his form by a couple losing efforts at Sunland Park, we would have paid much more attention to his Canadian successes and his substantial earnings. I think that we mentally crossed him off our lists of contenders when we saw that he couldn't win at Sunland Park. Flim-flammed! A story worthy of inclusion in Ashton Kutcher's You've Been Punked television series, we should be expecting the movie, and maybe the stewards at Sunland Park should examine the horses that defeated Mine That Bird in his efforts there! Will they be favorites in the Breeders' Cup?

P.S. I was rooting for Musket Man & General Quarters. Musket Man did himself proud.

txhorsefan, I specially loved Borel's comment after the race when asked about winning... "I didn't, THE HORSE did." But we all know NOW that without the incredible ride he gave Bird, the result would have been better than expected but would not have been the dominating, mind blowing victory it turned out to be.

Regarding Steve Haskin's comments about Mine That Bird in his Derby Report, don't overlook the fact that Steve didn't have MTB in his any of his picks either. Several horses with better pre-Derby credentials were working and galloping great at Churchill Downs in the two weeks leading up to the race. Steve's comment, while a good indicator of the Mine That Bird's condition, only looks prophetic in hindsight.

One of the most shocking things about this Derby to me is the fact that all the big-time pro handicappers and TV commentators kept insisting Dunkirk was some kind of wonder horse. Ever since Dunkirk's allowance race, I kept wondering what the wise guys were seeing that I was missing. Yes, he did stumble moments after the break, but otherwise had no obvious excuse.

I think this horse is something special, and hoping he makes it to the Preakness.  He was flying around the turn, just gobbling up ground, getting faster and faster! 6 3/4 lengths, no one seems to think that is worth anything. Farther than Barbaro! I'm hoping he could be the hero our sport needs. Watching his previous races, he has one lone "fluke" effort in the Juvenille. He's usually battling away, digging in and really fighting every step, even in his last prep. He's now 5 for 9. Good chance he might not be a fluke. How many others in the race had as good of a record as he? My second favorite moment was seeing the duel between PotN, Musket Man, and Papa Clem, something we were all hoping for- some of the top three year olds duking it out to the wire.  Did any of them see Bird fly past them? I do believe Quality Road and I Want Revenge would have made it tougher on him, and was originally disappointed, with my final pick being a handful of horses I wouldn't mind seeing win. Somehow I missed the gelding. I won't miss the big money stealing him out from under us after the Belmont. Thanks, Bird and Bo-Rail...there is hope yet!

Durkin couldn't call Mine That Bird in the beginning of the race because he was so far back and couldn't call him at the end because he went by so fast.  LOL.  Part of my shock was when the little horse dropped way out of it, I could not believe he was the one that flew by everyone in the stretch.  Neither could Durkin.

To me the Derby is not about the best horse - it's who can get thru the traffic - as we saw Talamo do with I Want Revenge previously.  Bo-rail proved my Derby point.  Besides, there no doubt he was in the zone.

Woolley said, "nuthing bothers this horse," and in the Post Parade with all the noise MTB was the only horse looking ahead to what was coming up - that has always been my mark of who would win.  It also didn't "bother" the horse to keep his momentum thru a 3 foot opening on the rail when asked to do so.

As far as Westerners and ex-rodeo riders horning in, it's about time racing lost some its Blue Blood status.  Westerners don't put up with a lot BS and being constantly chided by the press about the van ride finally broke Woolley's patience when he had other things in mind - like his Western Hospitality of giving credit to other trainers of MTB.

This IS GOOD for racing - just watching the crowd cheering as the Bird flew past the lugging leaders and then roaring their approval as Borel and MTB wallowed in their victory "dance" as one couple.  Didn't Seabiscuit and Red Pollard do the same thing once  when horse racing was at the pinnacle of sports, when the whole country stopped to hear a race on radio (then see it on Movie Tone News)?

We can all handicap and pedigree away, but in reality there are the Derby Gods who, just like the Real One, everyone seems to ignore.  The Gods have reasons of their own as to who the winner will be and the reason for my All bet on Derby Day.

I also believe the Gods gave Sunland Park and their runners some kind of payback for Peppers Pride all-time winning streak not being acknowledged with an Eclipse award.

It was a fantastic Derby day, and people who only watch once a year said, "WOW, look at what a horse can do!" ... not realizing the prowess of such a rider as Borel.  Yes, the Derby Gods touched him on the first Friday and Saturday in May.

Mine That Bird is just another proof that the Southwest is not a blackhole! Fly, dude, fly! With Pepper's Pride, we now have champions to shake in the face of the Eastern/California establishments. Gotcha!

I'd have to agree with Power 8 when she said something was off this year and there are too many horses in the field. Basically, all the horses that didn't break on top/first got jipped because if you look at the chart nearly every horse at the back got bumped, squeezed, checked, stumbled, or grabbed a qaurter I think the derby would be a lot safer for everyone involved if the field was limited to say 12-14 horses instead because then everyone would have a fair shot in the race. And I'm sure several others would feel much better  

It was an AMAZING day - and a truly great weekend.  We got to see a queen crowned on Friday and then the humble commoner pull the Derby sword from the stone on Saturday.  

I cannot say enough good about Calvin Borel.  What a jockey - and what a heart.  How nice to see real, true emotion and rejoicing instead of that professional "cool" so many of the top riders adopt.  Borel has the biggest and most humble, open heart of anyone in the game.  A true gentleman.

And I'll admit it - a huge refreshing change from having to see Baffert's smirk 24/7 on every bit of coverage throughout the week.  Is there a camera or light within a 100 mile radius that guy can't find?  He was so smug about POTN - but there at the end, the horse proved to be at the same level with others that were being dismissed as "also rans" - Musket Man, Papa Clem...let alone Mine That Bird.  A three way photo with second by a bob doesn't scream Triple Crown type to me.

Racing is truly the great equalizer.

PS:  Was very sorry to see the nightmare trip Friesan Fire got within the first 1/4 of the race.  He was sitting on a big effort and then got completely beat up.  Don't know why the HRTV commentators haven't acknowledged that - they keep saying he had no excuse and that Dunkirk had all the bad breaks.  Sure looked the other way around to me when I watched the replay - and the grabbed quarter and cuts on FF's legs would seem to bear that out.

Congratulations Calvin and Mine That Bird - hope you give the Crown a run!

TO SMARIE: You wrote that no animals were injured. Not so. Following is from the Blood-Horse article, "The Morning After: Basking in the Derby Glow."

"Meanwhile, Cindy Jones, assistant her trainer-husband Larry Jones, said Friesan Fire, who finished 18th as the Derby favorite, came out of the race with cuts and abrasions on at least three of his four feet and legs. He grabbed a quarter in the left front, had a cut on the tendon in the right front, and a cut on his right rear back foot. He also had some leg webbing, apparently from another horse, embedded in one of his hooves."

Friesan Fire was not going to win anyway due to that horrible start, but the colt finished 18th because Saez eased him in the stretch. That was after Saez showed a lot of impatience trying to get position in the early going. He pulled Fire sharply to the rail, then to the middle behind a wall of horses, then to the outside, all before the field got to the far turn. By then, Saez had no horse left and, as mentioned, eased him in the stretch.

I agree 100% with SMARIE. Kudos to Mine That Bird and his connections and Calvin! It is very good for racing when the unexpected "doesn't have a shot" horse wins on sheer talent. I am so tired of hearing all these so called "experts" try to explain this horse away. I am tired of the media always focusing on the popular trainers and horses in the news. Why not focus on the feel good stories and the little people who just as interesting to hear about. It seems like the bettors are most upset that they didn't see it coming, rather than ap[preciate the winner for what he is, the winner of the Kentucky Derby!

Second of all I would have to congradulate Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird and all of his connections. I didn't  know much about this horse going into the Derby. I didn't even realize Calvin Borel was in this years Kentucky Derby because I was too focused on the equines in the race if I had realized it I would have picked him to win because over the last 5 years I've learned that you don't bet against him. I guess I'll pay closer attention cfrom now on GOOD LUCK with the rest of the Triple Crown here's hoping you guys pull it off.  

I agree that Dunkirk was badly overrated by the TV guys. I had never figured out why he had been favored over Quality Road in the Florida Derby, much less to have been the second choice in the Derby.

For me, the true shame in the Derby is that I don't feel it was the best 20 3 year olds in the nation. I saw a scroll on the bottom line on ESPN yesterday that noted with the scratch of I Want Revenge, meant that there were 10 horse who were expected to be in the derby, that couldn't race due to injuries. These horses include I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Midshipman, and Vineyard Haven among others.

The funny part about MTB winning was that about 5 minutes before post time, i had joked with one of my friends about how the situation was similar to the Belmont last year with one of the top betting choices was scratched the morning of. So i had said jokingly, "watch, a longshot is going to win the race."

Congrats Calvin Bo-rail! He certainly owned CD! I almost considered boxing 8,13,6 on the O/DD with rachel the 6. However I thought can this guy pull of a O/DD? Highly unlikely? Possible yes? He's been winning left and right the past two days! He just won the Derby a while back. Could he be that lucky? Street Sense? MTB/SS? NO WAy!   <3 <3

Man, during the chat yesterday, not a single one of us mentioned Mine That Bird except to note that he was one of the ones we didn't think should be in the field. He sure did prove us wrong, didn't he? I just sat there and laughed like a loon after he crossed the wire. Gleeful disbelief.

I thought it a great Derby!  The "little" horse slipped by all, including Tom Durkin, I couldn't stop laughing at the end, Tom didn't see him until he was daylights in front.  I wish the commentator's would focus more on ALL of the horses, not just the chosen few, usually their chosen few, and less on celebrities and other such items.  The horses are the celebrities on race day, and I don't care who so and so is betting on!  Congratulations to Mine That Bird, and his connections and I hope that they go for the Crown.

And the tribute to Eight Belles was powerful.  I wish that Just Jenda could have won for her, and kept the first running in the "family".

It's fitting that Mine That Bird pulled this extraordinary and quite unexpected thing off in light of Lil E. Tee's death in march of this year.  The torch has been passed.  Also, I'm proud of my two Cali boys, Pioneer and Papa Clem, as they were two of only FOUR horses who ran well.

Sheila, What California establishment? The East is looking down their nose at us also.

I liked the fact that Wooley gave credit to the Canadian trainer David Cotey for the great job he did with Bird as a 2yr old. That is REAL CLASS. I did not hear this guy pat his own back, not once! All his gratitude was for Borel, the owners who gave him the chance, the former trainer and his brother who helped him because of his accident. GRACE in blue jeans and black cowboy hat!!!

As for Pepper's Pride, she's in foal to Tiznow, my favorite California horse. That foal should be very special, at least to me!!!

For those of you who think that the Mine that Bird's win is bad for racing-think again. His victory has proven that you don't have to be a millionaire or billionaire to come up with not only a horse in the Derby but a horse that WINS the Derby. Is it really inspiring when a regally bred multi-million dollar horse owned by a billionaire and trained by a Hall of Fame trainer wins the Derby? Not for me. To see the story of Mine the Bird and his connections unfold is so inspiring to us small time trainers at little racetracks all over the country. It gives all of us hope and makes us believe that not only is the dream still alive but it is within our reach.

TO CGRIFF: You posted, "Don't know why the HRTV commentators haven't acknowledged that - they keep saying he had no excuse and that Dunkirk had all the bad breaks."

The HRTV guys have been in the tank for Dunkirk since March, at least. Their excuses are to cover their own tushes. Like most people, I didn't select Mine That Bird. However, at least I made the correct case here for why Dunkirk should not have been among the favorites.

Also like most people, I love Cinderella stories and hard-knocking geldings. So I'm very happy for Mine That Bird and his future Hall of Fame jockey, Calvin Borel. However, I'm not keen on MTB's owners. See this article (www.adn.com/.../781355.html) from the Anchorage Daily News for the reason.

31 years and counting,

The best 3 year olds don't always run in the Derby. Case in point: Tiznow. He wasn't ready and bless his connections they did not push him. He did not start racing until June and ended up winning the Breeders Cup Classic at 3!!! Wonder what horse is given time to grow this year?

I didn't get to see the Derby live last night like i'd wanted, Prom was the cause of that, but hey it made up for it. That was until i finally texted my mom to tell me the winner. When she said the #8 horse Mine that Bird i almost choked up the steak i was eating, lol. Then she mentioned Calvin Borel as the jock and told me how the horse came soaring up the rail. I thought, well now that you mention it, it kinda made some sence. Needless to say after Prom was over, and i took all the bobby pins, like 20 of them out of my hair, and washed all the hair spray out, i turned on the TV to see the race for myself. All i have to say is what an amazing race it was. When i saw that rail skimming move Calvin was making all i kept thinking was Bo-rail, Bo-rail, Bo-rail. Jason you are correct, that man owns Churchill. I also will agree with, i think it was Power8 who said this is the kind of heart worming story racing needs. Also I like everyone else had the flashback of SS in 07 while watching this years Derby. I then also notice that my pick POTN got second. Does anybody remember what his daddy got in his derby? I also then took further notice to the sex of MTB, a gelding. Not only did POTN get second like his father, but he also got beaten by a longshot gelding like his father. Kinda cool, and kinda wierd. Any how what a fantastic race. Now i can't wait until Preakness day.

This has to be the most improbable victory in Kentucky Derby history. Mine That Bird must have loved the wet track, and Calvin Borel gave one of the greatest rides we'll ever see, but it's still a head shaker.

The head researcher at HRTV put out the theory that the high altitude of New Mexico may have helped Mine That Bird's lung capacity. The way that horse ran past them down the stretch, I'm not discounting anything. Right after the race, Mine That Bird was none the worse for wear and didn't even look tired.

Congrats to the winning connections of MTB,Borel has no conscious,unbelievable.He owns Churchill.

But,lets be honest,that was a fluke...Luck,pure luck...MTB was a front running horse throughout his racing career leading up to the Derby.It just so happened that Borel took him back after a wall of horses crossed in front of him,settled his horse way back of the pack,weaved his way through the tired horses and skimmed the rail,again.Luck can go along way in life....again,Congrats to the winning connections.They better thank 'somebody'!!!

    WOW is about all anybody can say.  I'm surprised the horse was only 50-1!  Honestly, after looking back through the past performances, I can say Mine That Bird would have been the last horse I would have picked.  It's as simple as that.  I shouldn't be surprised that Borel pulled this off.  He rode 6 winners on Friday/Saturday and all of them except for RA paid at least $10.  After Jazz In The Park won the 5 race, I leaned over the my friend and commented about how Calvin had done the same thing with riding longshots to victory all week long in 2007 leading into the Derby.

    I lost some money Saturday, but was happy to see Calvin win the Derby again.  Nobody deserves it more than he does.  He's truly just a regular guy and works as hard as any jockey I've ever seen.  Just like he did in 2007, he came right back and rode the next race when so many other jockeys have taken off their mounts the rest of the day.  His reasoning was the same this year as in '07 and that was 'I promised the man I would ride his horse'.  He's a class act.

    I walked away Saturday with lighter pockets, but got a nice keepsake along the way.  Calvin's nephew Shane carries his tak after the races and I was fortunate enough to have Shane give me a pair Calvin's goggles after the Oaks on Friday and after the Derby on Saturday.  It's ironic because I have a 3 year old daughter and 3 year old son and naturally Calvin's goggles from his mount on RA will go to my 3 year old "filly" and the goggles from the mount on MTB will go to my 3 year old "colt".  If anyone has ever met any of the Borel family (Cecil, Calvin, Shane, etc.) you can't help but pull for them.  Nice job Calvin and good luck in the Preakness.

    I like many others have a few after thoughts for the Derby:

    *  Overall, the California horses represented themselves well this weekend finishing 2nd, 4th & 5th.  Who would have thought that the Derby winner would have been from the West Coast, but not from California.

    *  Kent D's ride on HMB fell nothing short of "what the hell?".  I thought HMB would make a good middle move, I just didn't think Kent would do it before the turn!  I can think of no other jockey who can be so brilliant one race and be so ignorant the next.  Just my opinion.

    *MTB's time of 2:03 3/5 was the fastest KY Derby time ever run in the race where the track was listed as muddy/sloppy.  Who would have thought that MTB would run a faster time under pretty much the same track conditions as Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones & Go For Gin?

After the intial  shock wore off (and that took a minute), I remembered what my late father once said-"on any given day any horse can win."  Congrats to the connections of MTB.  This   Derby win defied all those so called experts that I frequently find nauseating.  It wasn't about previous B numbers or dosage.  It was about a brave little horse and a gutsy rider.  It's about a small group of owners with a young unknown trainer believing that they had a shot. This is what our sport has needed.  

Nice summary, Jason.

The only thing depressing about yesterday is that we can now all (almost all anyway) look in the mirror and realize that we were not so smart.

Nice statistical summary by For Big Red. Who would bet on a horse whose best beyer fig was 81 when all the major prep winners had beyer speed figs either above or just below 100? Worked 5 furlongs in 1.02 and change. Plus who could not win an ungraded race in New Mexico. Plus who finished dead last in the BC Juvenile? Plus who just ran off with the Kentucky Derby! Borel has shown that he is without a doubt one of the best.

To Big Red- SHEER TALENT!!! What are you talking about! Mine that Bird is a second , no make that THIRD rate horse that really had no business being in the derby, much less winning it! His past record proved that, the only reason he won this is a good jocky and an AWFUL lot of luck. If Friesan Fire had had a better start, Bird wouldn't had a palm tree's chance in the arctic of winning that race. Everyone might as well wait til next year because there is no way this poor quality horse could EVER hope to pull off a Triple Crown.

This horse will be another giacomo.  He will never be more than an also ran the rest of his career. This horse didn't even belong in the starting gate.  This was a really depressing derby, because i would at least like the winner to be a deserving one, not a fluke that will never repeat itself.

My own random thoughts...

1)   Congrats to the little guys who won racings biggest race.

2)   What's up with the former Quarter Horse trainers and all of their success in Thoroughbreds now days ???   And what don't all of the other Thoroughbred trainers know that they seem to ???  

Wayne Lukas ( Hall Of Famer ).  

Bob Baffert ( Hall of Famer ).

And now...Wooley Jr ???

3)   Very dissapointed that he's a gelding in a race that seems to mean so much to the future breed.

And...

4)   How much of a Super Sire / Broodmare Sire is Smart Strike now ???

re: merrywriter "westerners horning in" Thanks for bringing it up,because westerners may not be thought as 'elite' but do very well in racing. The great Swaps was owned and raced by cowboy Rex Ellsworth,and Triple Crown winner Assault was bred and owned by the King Ranch in Texas. Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lucas trained QHs and TBs at Sunland Park and Ruidoso Downs years back.

I spent last night re-reading sections of (the now outdated!) Greatest Kentucky Derby Upsets(EP 2007).  This was a great Derby and Oaks; after the past year, esp. the past month, racing needed this.  Turner Classic Movies ran 1930's-50's racing movies Friday.  This has the makings of a movie.   Bloodlines count:  Birdstone takes the Belmont and Travers (1 1/4 miles in driving rain); his dad took the Derby in 96.  Here's to a long and healthy racing career for this champion gelding!  This as an Oaks-Derby double we can all celebrate.

I loved that the HRTV "experts" had to eat crow. They are just pitiful.  Not that TVG would have seen this coming, but they would have at least congratulated the winners. Churchill needs to bring back TVG.  No wonder they are losing money with those "experts" from HRTV<

There could be a case made for this being one of the biggest upsets in all of sports history if if not the biggest.  This horse came from twenty one lengths back in a 20 horse field to win by 6 1/4 lengths with absolutely zero connections to this GELDING.  last time I checked and might be off by a few but I believe 8 geldings have won the derby.  I don't believe a horse has ever won the derby off prepping in the SUNLAND derby let alone finishing fourth in that prep.  I will give this horse one thing, he is a son of the legendary birdstone who loved the distance (winning the belmont at a huge price) and loved the slop (won the travers in the slop).   The combination of that and the jockey giving him an unbelievably smooth ride through all the traffic won the race.  

Dave  I dissagree.  I think we have another TC winner.  Small horse, out of no-where.  JUST like Seattle Slew. :)

Curlin: MineThatBird ran 2:02.66. It really is a great time based on wet track precedents. unbridled ran 2:01 on a good track.

I thought yesterday was a lot of fun. A lot of people will be talkng about the Derby, and mostly in a good way.

However, I'm not sure how this points out that the "little people" have a chance in the game. The owners paid $400,000 for Mine that Bird. That's a lot of money.

For Big Red

I only have one thing to say about FF.  He is on 4 legs!  That is enough for me.  :)

Just another thought, not only are the connections of Mine That Bird ecstatic, but the owners of Sunland Park have to be as well.  Maybe in a year or 2 when the "big" races are being re-graded, the $900K Sunland Park Derby will finally get at least a GIII status.

Conrgatulations to MTB, Calvin Borel and connections. Calvin did his usual first rate job and was half the reason this horse won as you said in your post. With another jockey I don't think it would have happened. He knew the rail was faster and it made all the difference. Otherwise it would have been POTN, who ran a very good race for the first time on dirt. POTN is also a pretty impressive horse when all is said and done.

I think this race makes the point that when you have a group of pretty good horses, but no dominating horse like BB, Rachel Alexandra or QR (if he had run), the race is wide open and anything can happen with a good trip. I think breeding and Breyer's figures become much less important in a scenario like this. Although, having said that, if FF had not been injured or had a different jockey, who knows what could have happened.

Feel terrible for FF who I also think is a very good horse. I don't think this race is any indication of what the horse can do.

I think that Woolley is quite the character. He can be a real smart a** and needs to cut that out (a comment he made to a reporter right after the win about not wanting any more questions about the ride to the Derby from Texas). He can also be gracious as when he attributed the win to Calvin Borel's ride, and rightly so. It's o.k. that he wears a cowboy hat etc (someone complained about this in another posting). That's who he is. In the west he would have been considered very well dressed for the day. In short, he wasn't wearing shorts.

I am not sure MTB is a triple crown winner, especially if QR, IWR or FF show up again. MTB is a gutsy little horse and I would love to see it happen, but I am not so sure.

I don't think IWR was drugged and that's why he was scratched. It makes no sense to assume that a vet would be involved in a conspiracy of that nature, especially in these times when everyone is watching. Save the conspiracy theories for Oliver Stone.

Dunkirk is a good horse but overrated. I don't think his previous races gave any indication he would run a big race. I never thought he would and he didn't.

Lastly, Rachel Alexandra would have beat them all. That is one amazing horse. Would love to see her race Zenyatta. Now that would be a race.

calvin borel. good job now they know you better they forgot,who was grindstone,and unbridled, too bad we going now for next two keep on rolling  M T Bird

From what I have read, if they put FF back on the track at the Preakness that is a bad call.  He isn't doing well.  

Dave- He didn't belong in the starting gate and is an undeserving winner? Good grief man, I can't believe you wrote that!!! He had the earnings, the pedigree and the courage to go through the small hole Borel had the guts to ask him to go through. What else do you want?

Borel great ride won the race.QUESTION- Why was the track SLOPPY. I was there it didn't rain after 8:30 am. It should have been a  fast track!

For Big Red,

I did read that latest ADN article - and am totally bummed out that we can't have one storyline that is completely pure.  

But at least the horse seems to me - and combine him with Borel and the hopefully other untainted connections - it's still an overall feel good.  I just about cried when Borel said how he wished his mom and dad could be there to see what he'd accomplished with his life.  

To me - that washes away any stench from a part owner's father's crime.

PS:  LOVE your blog name!!

Paula Higgins-I'm a big fan of Zenyata but after Friday, I think Rachel Alexandra would win such a race. However,it would not be as easy. Zenyata is also big, imposing and used to winning...but I don't think she could catch Rachel. But I'm wrong more often than not. Horse racing keeps me humble.

Glad someone finally mentioned Baffert and D Wayne as coming from the Quarters - Long before D Wayne dressed out of GQ, he drove the backroads of Wisconsin, buying and selling any nag around - People forget that he once was a hard boot who drifted into the quarters with some oil money.

However, only the elite should be allowed in?  Well, another Sovereign Winner in Canada (Best 2 year old colt) was Sunny's Halo trained by David Cross - Cross spent several months rehabbing SH in a swimming pool - Cross did wonders getting SH to the Derby winner's circle - Shame he was rudely cast aside by Gary Barber.  Yeah, let's hear it for the the connections of the little guys and not the IEAHs of this world.  Had IEAH made the Canadian buy, Bird would have gone to Pletcher and his odds would have been much lower.  Get over it 5 horse field claiming Chalk bettors, get over it.  There is more to handicapping than simply numbers.  Once had a Cross trained former 2nd in the KOaks win at SA at 7 and a half to one - Beat two bet down Ron Ellis gals - Still remember the clockers wringing their collective hands and whining "But, she didn't have the numbers".

    To Smarie :   I meant to say that from a handicappers standpoint that it was a depressing race !I had stated in my last comment that at least there were no fatalities ,which made it a good derby in that respect ! Please read the whole blog b4 You judge me Thank You !!!

2009 is without a doubt the weakest field since 2005 when we saw another fluke win.  These Derby horses better think again before lining up against Big Drama... there is nothing cheap about his speed and will have no trouble whipping every Derby horse that dares to enter.

I'll be rooting for him on the 18th...

Try rooting for him on May 16th.

It is really strange how four weeks ago this year's derby looked to be one for the ages, with such accomplished and special/talented horses.  And then, it all started to systematically fall apart.  And the result was just one strange derby.  I think that is what people mean when they say they are a little disappointed/depressed.

Now I just heard that my favorite I Want Revenge will be out for at least 4 months; it's just upsetting.  And, this win diminishes the Street Sense derby victory, which looked so sensational at the time, since Mine That Bird looks every bit as good.  It hurts me to say that.  I'll have to give him a chance; it will just take time for me to get there.  AND, he bested Barbaro's margin of victory.  I don't know what to think.

One more Kentucky Derby.

1:59 2/5 still stands.

I'm so glad the rich and famous guys did'nt win. The sheik spent more on fuel for his 767 to fly here from Dubai than was spent on the horse.This can only help the industry. Do you think he'll have more bets made on him in the Preakness? Chalk one up for the little guys and the little horses too!

Lots of kudos and some real sour grapes. It was a great derby even if I lst a few dollars I was happy to see the blue collar horse win. I could not understand all the hype about Dunkirk, as he was a nice horse but he never raced enough to have any experience, I had him in none of my bets. I did have FF, PON, MM, GC and PC. I couldn't see who the horse was coming up the rail and we are yelling who is that and somebody said #8 and of course who is #8, and when they said MTB first thing to enter my mind was Birdstone against Smarty and I even had my Smarty T-Shirt on. I was happy my MM got in there and nearly beat PON. MM is a tough horse. Happy for the horse from Sunland Park though as the derby gods spoke.

Great job for Calvin borel^^

I was so focussing on the 3 horses in front, I though Pioneerof the Nile was going to win...and when Mine that bird take the lead, I was like:

''......Who's that horse?!?!?!''

I'll hope he win a Triple Crown. If he go and won the preakness, with Birdstone as father, the belmont shouldn't scare him

Right after the race, Mine That Bird was none the worse for wear and didn't even look tired.

Maybe, the little horse inherited the X-factor heart through all his dam-line generations to Princequillo.

I guess this result says something about the importance of a 2 year old foundation. The top four finishers all raced as two year olds, with the winner having 6 races and the runner-up 5.

I am also sorry that the winner, being a gelding, won't be able to pass his apparent sturdiness and soundness along to future generations. I also am repulsed by those apparent poor losers who have posted that this was a fluke win, and the horse will never amount to anything in the future. To you I say, so what?, he has already become a part of history by winning the Kentucky Derby, and don't be so smuggly sure that this will be the last we hear from this horse. Isn't it that same sort of attitude, one that dismissed the champion 2 year-old from Canada and who raced in New Mexico of all places, (not the great prep race locations we all seem to hold so important in our approvals), and who did not have "the GREAT BEYER numbers" to win this race. Check out the comments Beyer had before the race, where he says California, synthetic track specialists won't be close this year- WRONG "KEE-MO-SAH-BEE", in that 2nd is as close as you can get ; or did he mean close like in lengths, in which case I will give him the benefit of the doubt. If anything, in a year when Beyers have been debated and adjusted, the tool they are supposed to be , has lost some of its luster. I only wonder how good these numbers really are anymore, when they don't hold up to the scrutiny they have received in the last few months leading up to the Derby, for surely most races don't receive the watchful eye of so many as these races do, meaning do we really trust these numbers for the multitude of races that are run on a daily basis and aren't scrutinized and hashed around like they are for the Derby prep races.

I think one poster , Sitting Bull , was so correct this year, we should have all listened to him.

I think this years derby proved many things to all of us. First and foremost there are not "guarantees" in horse racing. I admire all the posters on this blog who are so absolutely sure who is going to win everytime but the bottom line....no one really ever knows. That is why everyone's opinions are valuable. I didn't hear anything about MTB before this race and he flew in under my radar which is hard to do. Usually I know a lot about each horse. Much to my dismay I didn't even know MTB existed. To bad for me because from what I can see, that little horse was flying and the rest were standing still. Maybe the fact that he is a gelding will let us see much more of this tough little guy. I don't even think Tom Durkin knew who he was and where he came from. Furthermore I love Tom Durkin..but where was the excitement in his voice??? What about "and down the stretch they come"???? I really didn't know what was going on. Did he even give us the opening quarter time??? I don't think he did. I am happy for MTB. Unfortunately if first impressions mean anything..I could do without his trainer. I didn't like his attitude and just didn't get a good feeling from him. Maybe I am jumping the gun..the next few weeks will tell. I am happy they all came back in one piece. The 20 horse field has always been a struggle for me. To many good horses get bumped and hurt early in the race because of it.

Not sure why MTB pedigree has come in to question. From what I can see this is a royally bred horse. Birdstone..Smart stike...Unbridled..Mr prospector...Northern Dancer top and bottom...whats not to like?

I hope everyone(media etc.)keep bashing MTB as it will only set up another big payday in the Preakness. Sort of reminds me how Charismatic was bashed for breaking his maiden in the Derby and later went off at pretty good odds in the Preakness. Wouldn't it be ironic if this little horse went on to be our next Triple Crown winner.

LT: "One more Kentucky Derby. 1:59 2/5 still stands."

Yes it does, 37 years a counting. Every year just burnishes his accomplishments even more. :)

Another wrecthed crop of 3 year olds-not quite as bas as last year- although close! At least the network broadcast was honest enough to inform all that the USA is the only major horse racing nation in the world that drugs its horses during traing- before races- as well as during races- both legally and illegally!  

Amazing that the horse that won couldn't even win his last two fourth rate stakes races- and the favorite was a horse that never won beyond 1 1/16th miles and ran his best races at just one track- Louisiana Downs.

So America- keep drugging the horses! And I guess the sport of Kings- so called because of the money involved- was won by an average American!!!! No media attention pimp trainer- no rich connections........poor Dubai and American Racing elite.

Some have mentioned abit of a let down with this Derby and I understand why, it's because the chances for Mine That Bird for winning the Triple Crown may be slim. Seeing his racing pattern suggests that he might be like Cat Thief who I could count on to win a race and then lose 3 or 4 and then win big again. I picked him for the Breeder's Cup Classic just on that observation. This may prove true with Mine That Bird. Don't get me wrong I like the little horse though he was not my pick. I also find it interesting that for those who doubted Pioneerof the Nile's ability to handle the dirt and to handle it in the mud first time out are not giving the horse his kudos especially Draynay who threw him out for 3 reasons 1) a California horse 2) running on synthetic 3) won the Santa Anita Derby. He has been my choice since a two year old and if he goes to the Preakness he will remain my choice as well if he goes to the Belmont. And for those who threw out Musket Man he is another to keep a sharp eye out for. I hope the connections for Mine That Bird go on to try for the Triple Crown, he just might like that Belmont distance as his daddy upset Smarty Jones in that race. And his daddy was greatly overlooked then as well.

How about those poly track horses?

Dray- The three year old division last year was worse! Look at EB- she came in 2nd in the Kentucky Derby off winning minor stakes in small fields against the same horses- and people called her a 'great' filly..at this point in time I would say that last year is easily a far worse crop....  

Why was the track SLOPPY. I was there it didn't rain after 8:30 am. It should have

Cool air, no moving air. Had it been warmer and breezy, the track would have been at least almost good since warm air can soak up FAR MORE moisture than cool air. Plus, it was humid.

Katie

Yeah me too.  I had PON in my win.  Thought for sure I had hit.  I said the same thing "where did that horse come from".  :)

JASON: You're welcome. The article was not in a "mainstream" paper, so maybe that news won't circulate widely. Still, it is a little unsettling. So much still needs to happen to get this sport well again. I hope big media continues to run with the feel-good story and not the other. And I hope Mine That Bird's people continue to do right by him.

    First off,  Congrats to that little gelding "Mine that Bird"!, Reminded me of "Seabiscuit",  Congrats to Jockey Calvin Bo-rail, Trainer Bennie (Chip) Woolley Jr, his older brother, Bill, Who  looked after the Mine that Bird and his other horses in his barn for the last two months due to his leg injury.  Double Eagle Ranch of Mark Allen and Buena Suerta Equine, owned by Leonard Blach.

   What can you say?, That is Racing, The most Un-predictable sport there is!  I think it will be great for the sport, It needs an Underdog story(Kinda upset he beat "Barbaro's"  modern day victory margin, though!).

    Also, I feel terrible for Larry & Cindy Jones, My favorite horse, "Friesan Fire", had a horrible break, grabbed a quarter, was stepped on, and was cut up on three legs, Quote, ""He got hit real bad leaving the gate," Jones said as he walked back to the barn. "He's bleeding. If you see blood on the track, it's his."  "They say I can't walk away from this?" Jones said as he walked back to the barn. "Watch me."  "I really felt like it was set up for him," Jones said. "That's why I'm quitting, guys. The Breeders' Cup won't get here soon enough."  In recent memory, It reminded me of Nicanor's first race(Not comparing talent, comparing circumstances!), Exactly the same thing happened to Nicanor coming out of gate, grabbed a quarter, hit other horses, showed courage by running on to third(Adreleine), then eased up by jockey, same thing with Fire, But, In the end, That is Horse racing, A shame, but true. I hope he heals safe and sound and he will be back to fight another day!!!!

    In my opinion, The track was biased, if you look at the races for the two days, friday & saturday, A big majority were won by horses staying on the rail, I am taking nothing away from Borel & "Mine that Bird", I am just saying, the other Horses off the rail had a deeper track, they sunk in, and had to run harder then if they were on the rail, also, It didn't hurt that "Mine that Bird"  was the lightest Horse in the race!. If you watched NBC coverage, That did a bit on Churchill sealing the track prior to Derby, They stated that they do it the old fashioned way or old school, with old tractor's and two by four pieces of wood(Rather then newer more modern tractors with heavier equipment to flaten the surface more, but if you noticed, the tractor didn't get right up to the rail, hence, In my opinion, there was less water there and it was a harder surface.  Anyways, a congrats to all.....

   Also, Congrats to Rachel Alexandra(Amazing!!!, Speechless...), Congrats to Brazilian-bred Einstein(What a will to win!!!), And finally, Congrats to Lael Stable's(The Jackson's) daughter of Stormy Atlantic, "My Princess Jess", Who took home the Beaugay at Belmont. Trainer Barclay Tagg & Jockey Cornelio Velasquez  deserved the win, Good Job...

   One more thing, R.I.P. to "Stormalory", As the race favorite in the American Turf Stakes, This striking 3yr. old bay colt by Storm Cat out of Miss Halory pulled up and was vanned off; X-rays revealed he had suffered a medial sesamoid fracture and cannon bone fractures of his left front leg, and he was euthanized. My thought to all of his connections, Sad....

    LASTLY, I need input on this, I am an Honest person, BUT on Saturday when I was at the OTB window, I purchased a total of 52 different tickets(Mostly on the derby and a few other races), when I was done, and I quote, the teller said, "MAKE SURE YOU CHECK ALL YOUR TICKETS, TO MAKE SURE THE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT", Well, there was about ten people behind me, kinda upset because I took so long, so needless to say, I said to the teller, "I trust you!", and walked away to go home to watch the race.....After the race, I knew I didn't have "Mine that BIRD" on any tickets, but I still bet on other races, so I didn't throw them out. WELL, this morning I was checking the tickets, And one of my Safest bets on the Derby, A $6.00 straight exacta with Friesan Fire (#6) & Pioneer of the Nile(#16), Which should have been 6-16, INSTEAD, The teller hit the NUMBER 8!!!!, Hence I had a $6.00 straight exacta of 8-16 !!!!!!!!!!!, Now, I kinda freaked out, I haven't cashed it yet, according to my math , It has a pay-off of $6,224.40!!!!!Now I KNOW it was a mistake, BUT.....

   Would ANYONE here be honest and not cash it in((I know that sounds insane), but I am not stupid and I am 99 percent sure I will cash it in, I will give ten percent($625) to the Penn Veterinary School of Medicine fighting laminitis Fund(Barbaro).

   Any thoughts?, Thanks....

I wanted FF, but congrats to MTB! He seems like a pretty good horse to beat all of those top three year olds.

And maybe I'm going crazy, but wasn't there someone else instead of Durkin commentating? I remember them interviewing a guy, who was the announcer. But maybe that's just me.

JASON: Sigh. Last I looked, we still have the freedom to buy what we can afford. Anyone who can afford it, can buy a racehorse. I'm right on board with complaints about drugs, Paragallo-type operations, failure to find new careers for ex-racehorses, and so on, but tagging the whole sport with this guy's legal problems would just be wrong.

Jason,

    Yep, It happened, The racing gods were looking after me, maybe after what happened to Friesan Fire, Check your email, and there will be a couple of naysayers out there that think I am lying, so after looking at picture, can you state for a fact you saw the ticket, thanks, and keep up the good work....

OK, I read the article in the Anchorage Daily News...not good but, Curlin was not diminished by his connections' crime. Why should MTB image be tarnished because of a part owner's entanglement with dirty politics. That has nothing to do with the horse or the jockey who ran and won against (so we thought) all odds.

HI GREG J.: Was waiting for you to check in. I'm also very disappointed about what happened to our Fire. Hopefully none of the injuries prove serious and he can come back to prove what we believe he is.

Re the ticket, yes, by all means cash it, unless it will impact your 2009 tax situation in a big way. You did nothing wrong, and the track can't undo their mistake. Heck, they can't really even prove it was a mistake. It is what it is. You know the old saying, "can't unring the bell." Cash it, man, and don't even think about looking back. :)

Jason/Big Red:

I agree - the story genie is out of the bottle and it will take off - especially because of the reversal of the Steven's verdict - it is a story with legs even without the Derby connection.

However - if we were going to judge our racehorses based on owners criminal convictions and/or jail time - we'd have to trot out Louis Wolfson's corruption conviction and prison record prior to his racing Affirmed to a Triple Crown.  That didn't stop people from cheering for the horse - and the rivalry with Alydar eclipsed the owner's prison time.

And let's be candid - Wolfson was just one of one of many, many examples of unscrupulous business moneyed types who have campaigned good horses.  Damon Runyan didn't just pull those story lines out of thin air, you know.  

It's not ideal timing for the industry in the wake of last year - but I honestly think people will look more at whether or not the horse was clean when racing and if the trainer is clean than whether the part owner is a political briber or not.  

The public is more interested in the safety of the sport at this point.  If MTB is a  true Hay/oats/water type and there's not a blemish on the trainer - I think the Allen story will become a footnote by Preakness time.  And don't forget the Borel factor - he is a bigger story than the horse or the owners at this point.

Here's hoping - we need a feel good storyline to ride through June and into summer.  

I always like to see the little guy win. Heart and guts won the race yesterday.

I am tired of the huge mega stables and trainers being in the spotlight all of the time - Lukas (thank God that arrogant #$(# is not so popular anymore), Baffert, Pletcher - that's not racing. I like to hear about the little guy like the owner/trainer or General Quarters, it's a love for him, not the money and fame. It's disheartening to see an organization like IEAH come along out of nowhere and start buying horses after they prove themselves, then strut around the winners' circle like they had something to do with that win.

Stables like Lael Stable and jockeys like Calvin Bo-Rail should be cloned - then the sport would become healthy again.

I didn't even know the name of the horse before he won and I am ashamed to say I didn't pay attention - I just listened to the pompous commentators.

Racing needs more days like yesterday and great little horses like Pepper's Pride for the health of the sport (rememer the improbable winners of the 1980 hockey Olympics?).

Congrats Calvin, Mine that Bird and all of your connections. Now, go buy a new truck so you don't break down on the way home!

This morning trainer Woolley and owners of Mine That Bird decided they wanted to pay tribute to a great horse.  After the morning showers at Churchill ended they made their way to the new memorial at Gate one and placed Mine That Bird's mantle of roses on Barbaro.

They later removed the roses and passed them out one by one to fans who stopped by.

Congratulations to the little brown horse that could and his connections and to Calvin Borel who indeed needs to have his name engraved on the rail at Churchill Downs.

I don't understand the impression that Mine That Bird was supposed to be a speed horse. Granted, he had never been that far back before, but he did come from off the pace in most of his Woodbine races.

And yes, I had $2 on him and used him in my exacta. It was only for $1, but I'm a happy camper.

He reminds me of Sea Hero. Good 2-year old, tanks in the BC, forgetable early 3-year old campaign, comes through in the Derby partially due to a great ride. Sea Hero didn't do much after the Derby, but he did win the Travers.

I forgot to ad one comment.

Remember how Sunday Silence was ignored by the blue bloods because he wasn't quite blue blood enough - Japan got the last laugh in that one - he was a phenomonal sire and now several of his sons are back. Wish our country could have gotten the benefit of him as a sire.

I used to work on a breeding farm in Lexington took all the broodmares to get bred. It shocked me to see all the crooked-legged horses being bred. My favorite was a not-so-well bred mare owned by the farm where I worked. One of her babies ended up on Germany being a very highly recognized horse who was brought over to improve their sporthorse breeding. He was gorgeous.

It's kind of funny to me how everyone on message boards were touting this crop and now that MTB won suddenly some are saying the crop was pitiful.  Sure, big names scratched but you still had some of the most heralded horses left in the race.  And yes please stop saying the little guy beat the rich guys...yes MTB initially sold for peanuts but these owners are RICH and involved in shady things.  It is so so so so so so so unfortunate because I'd hate to see what happened to BB happen to MTB.....the horse does not pick his connections!! please don't bash him....GOOOO MTB!!!! the little horse that could.

Unless the bloodwork on Mine That Bird shows the presence of drugs, this is the death of handicapping.  When reviewing past performances of the Derby horses, Mine That Bird wasn't the fifth or sixth throwout.  Mine That Bird was the FIRST throwout.

There is no rational handicapping methodology that would point to Mine That Bird as a potential winner of the Derby.  And if the outcome of horse races is purely random, then horse racing is dead.

If no drugs are found in Mine That Bird, I will be giving up handicapping and horse racing for good.  I suspect many others will be doing the same shortly.

If I could add one more comment, I'd second the comment above by predict, this Derby definitely calls into question the Beyer speed figures. The "master", Andy Beyer told us that a 109 fig more/less is needed to win the Derby. Yet how do these figures get set? If you look at all the main preps in April (Santa Anita; Arkansas; Blue Grass; Wood Memorial; Illinois) they were all within about a second in final times. Yet the Beyer speed figs were all over the place. I realize that they are supposed to reflect different conditions, track surfaces, pace; etc. Nevertheless the "master" told us that no how, no way were California horses going to show up (it was "obvious") -- and then POTN; Choc. Candy and Papa Clem took down 2nd; 4th; and 5th places.  As noted above, I could not have said it better .... "Wrong Kee-Mo-Sabee".

Excellent point re: Curlin's Midnight Cry owners and some other owners with shady pasts/presents.....I do hope it becomes a footnote for the horse, jock and trainer's sake (providing of course everything is A ok which I expect it to be!)

How awesome that they put the roses on Barbaro's statue and then passed them out, so so so cool.  

It just warms the heart to see a few cowboys from New Mexico show up and steal the prize from the Sheik and IEAH (you have to run, to win!), and all the other people who think that money can buy ANYTHING. Kudos, to a small little gelding who didn't get the memo about how poor his chances were. And it is lovely to see that in this sport, unlike just about any others, you cannot buy the title!

Calvin goes without saying, but don't forget that Mine That Bird finished more than 6 lengths ahead of his peers. A good ride, yes; and a great run!

luckythehorse- On some of the replays I watched the announcer is not Durkin but the new guy at Churchill Downs. Sorry, I don't remember his name. He's British and did a better job than Durkin.He spotted MTB faster than Durkin did, but not until he got through the hole at the rail. Jason, are there two callers for the Derby? The house guy at the track and Durkin on TV?

Amy S. are you a little sour or what?? Wretched is a rather harsh word used to describe any horse. I can think of a few people it might apply to however....Geesh.

I agree with Greg J that the track was biased. But a win is a win is a win, and they should be congratulated. I would be thrilled to see them repeat it during the Preakness. If he is Seattle Slew 2 that would be something to see.

I agree with everyone that thinks POTN is a really good horse. He deserves a ton of respect. Musket Man too. They were in the middle of the track and had a tougher go of it. Having said that I still think MTB would have won but maybe by not so much.

I thought that Mark Johnsons on track call was great and that he is doing a knock up job.  

How about some graded status for the sunland derby?  It was won by a graded stakes winner and it produced a Grade one winner.  Nine hundred thousand dollar dirt prep out West?  

Greg--cash it!!

RE: For Big Red's link..WOW! I'd rather have the Sheik w/all of his riches win the Derby than the so-called "common little guy connections" of MTB...those folks are shadier than the whole state of Texas.

I dont want to say I told you so but I think Im going to have to. I said along time ago when everyone was hailing every freaking other horse not to overlook the Birdstone!!! Grindstone was totally ignored as the son of Unbridled. Im really glad a horse that didnt cost a few million, nor even 5 digits as a yearling won this race. For some weird reason everyone is complaining that they lost because of this or that, and wont give MTB the credit he deserves for racing a hell of a race and Calvin did what he does best. All those other trainers are sore losers. MTB is very well bred, so is Summer Bird. Watch out for them in the Belmont! I feel like I won the derby just because I love Birdstone as a stallion and racehorse he was! No sour grapes are going to ruin my parade...LOL

Cgriff: My feel-good story will be if Friesan Fire recovers from all of his cuts and bruises, and goes on to a stellar remainder of 2009. Also hoping that the nightmare start he had in the Derby won't mess with his head.

Although I was hoping for a better outcome for him, I'm comforted by the fact that the vast majority of Derby winners have not gone on to success at stud, which is something I'm hoping for FF long term. American breeding desperately needs high-quality outcrosses for the Raise a Native/Mr. Prospecter sire line. He'll also be an outcross for mares with Northern Dancer in their pedigrees, as ND appears only once in FF's pedigree, in the 5th generation.

My brother-inlaw and I never cashed a ticket but I bet 5$ WPS on the 8 horse for a friend cause he had to work Sat. You should have heard him holler when I phoned him! I took a picture before I cashed it for him $457.75.

Luckythehorse, you are correct.  That voice was NOT Tom Durkin.  Durkin is retired.  The new voice of the Derby is Mark Johnson from England.

I always thought that the announcer had tv monitors that he was watching the race on.  But Mark Johnson was using field glasses.  Could explain why he didn't see MTB moving up right away - he was focused on the leaders, and didn't see MTB until he pulled alongside them.

Nancy C

You said what I was afraid to say.  :) Love your post!

Tiznowbaby, you once stated that synthetic surfaces mask unsoundness, and I commented to you that I disagreed and you never responded.  Respectfully, I need to point to Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs with their pavement-like  surfaces that have ruined the best 3-year-old colts this year.  Mullins wanted to return I Want Revenge to Hollywood Park after the Wood Memorial victory; I heard him with my own ears, but I suppose IEAH trumped his call.  Listen, if that little brown gelding could survive a 21 hour van ride, then IWR would have been fine with a cushy airplane ride.  Mullins was right, and I am a little bit PO'd that the Churchill Downs surface took it's toll on him.  The synthetic surfaces have their place, especially in training!  

Greg J.

I have made or had mistakes like that happen and really it didn't bother me to cash in.  Keep the money.  The track got enough to keep them out of any type of bankrupsy and you did a heck of a lot of work.  I thought you were going for FF for the win?

Remember I kept telling you Pioneer of the Nile?  :)  OK now do you want my address? LOL

If anyone deserves this it would be you Greg.  You are a wonderful person and you CARE about Barbaro.  I think you know what to do with that ticket.   :-)  

Boy do I HATE the rain!  Other than the performance by Mine That Bird, which should be investigated by Mulder & Scully, I have to say the California horses did quite well. Three of them hit the top 5, which isn't bad for "synethic" horses who don't train on the dirt or the mud.  I'm looking forward to the possibility of seeing Papa Clem in the Preakness if they decide to go.

Hmm... I think Mark Allen needs a Charm School course. When asked about the Preakness and whether they would run MTB he said they would see what was best for the horse. Absolutely right, no argument and he should have stopped right there. But he didn't. Then he said "We don't owe nobody nothing." So there is something to be said for those "big stables" and their connections who know how to behave in an interview. I will take Bob Baffert et al. anytime over that kind of comment. Maybe he is just clueless and not deliberately trying to be rude. Time will tell.

On another note, it was a lovely gesture putting the rises on Barbaro's statue and then handing them out to bystanders. That was a classy thing to do.

Oh how wonderful to live to see this derby!  A little plain horse in a brown wrapper; a Seabiscuit for the ages! My first pick was Quality Road because he is Smarty's brother; then I pulled for General Quarters when he was eliminated because of the elder educator's story; I was also sad to see Revenge eliminated. This wonderful ending was just beautiful; all of it reminded me of the Seabiscuit story; I hope Mine That Bird and all connections continue to run and win and win and win!

Greg J.

I am pretty sure that even if you say that THEY made a mistake they would tell you it is on the house.  I am on the phone with someone that did a lot of gambling in Nevada  and the same thing happened to him.  They told him it was on the house.  I don't know if it is true with horseracing or not, but I think it is.  If anyone deserves this exacta, YOU do.  :)

Now let me know when you want my address LOL..........  GOOD JOB!

There's another factor in MTB's triumph: altitude. He came late by truck from Mew Mexico: think CanoneroII who also flew in from high altitude. More red blood cells helped the Bird fly at the end.

I'm a biologist living in Albuquerque and I could kick myself all around the block for not betting the Bird. When I visit sea level I leave younger hikers in the dust.

The Bird will lose his edge before the Belmont. Wait! His sire, Birdstone, won the Belmont. Maybe the Preakness will be MTB's biggest test.

    Greg J, that's a pretty unbelievable story.  I would definitely keep the ticket.  Put it this way, if the FF-POTN exacta had hit and you noticed after the race that the teller hit 8-16 instead, do you think the track would give you your money back for the "mistake"?  Not in a million years!  Jason is right, you didn't do anything dishonest so enjoy the benefits.

    As for the rail bias, I would have to agree.  I noticed it most when Prado kept One Caroline 4 wide the whole way around the track and Borel came up the rail in the stretch and outdueled him with Miss Isella.  However, a rail bias to me is much different than say a speed bias.  Not all horses have speed, but any jockey who wants the rail can get to it.  The jockeys tend to notice things like that so you figure all of them would have tried to work their way down there at some point in the race or at least be close enough to it to keep another horse from shooting up the rail.  It's the same rail bias as in the 2006 BC that was at Churchill.  I'm taking nothing away from Mine That Bird.  The best horse with the most luck on Saturday won the race by 6 3/4 lengths.  He's not the best 3 year old by any means (QR, IWR, OF, POTN, etc. are better), but he was the best on Saturday and that's all that counts.  Now we get to see if he can be the best again in 2 weeks.  It's not a stretch to think he'll be double digit odds again in 2 weeks and I think he will be.  I remember in 1999 when Charismatic won the Derby and came back in the Preakness and went off at around 8-1 to 9-1.  If people still like his chances, you'll get good odds again, that's for sure.

Man I was just told that when Mine That Bird's connections showed up at the Derby, they were totally ignored and treated like they did not even exist.  No-one offered help, no-one talked to them, they all just stuck their noses in the air with those people and that horse.  Well I am so glad this happened.  It is the people that really make a difference from the heart that make this world a better place.  I am so happy for them and Mine that Bird.  These big hot shot owners and trainers, well need I say more?  

Greg.  Another TC winner you think?

Greg J.  Never mind, you said straight up exacta.  I thought you changed your mind to PON.  My mistake.  :)

goodwin

You are so right.  You can't buy an Olmypic Gold medal either and Michael Matz was there.  :)  The best things in life come from people and for people that are honest, caring and word hard.  NOT from people who stick their nose in the air cause they have all the answers and in reality they know nothing.  

Happy for Calvin Borel. However, had a feeling the owners of the horse looked too "arrogant." Just kind of distanced.

Just learned that one of them is caught up in a scandal involving families oil business and paying poloticians off.

Not what horse racing needs. I would rather of had Kent D. and Dutrow win the Derby then have to see the owners of Mine that Bird.

Its worth it though, since C--Bo was up.

You know, I'm just one of the little guys (who's hurting a lot thanks to the soon-to-reach 12% unemployment rate here in CA). Yet I have to put in a word for the big money people involved with this sport. Yes, collectively they make a lot of mistakes as far as management of the sport goes. I'm the last person who's going to defend those mistakes. Yet, without them, we would never get the pleasure of seeing wonderful horses run.

The Vanderbilts, Whitneys, Phippses, Hancocks, and so many other wealthy people who invested and still invest in this sport are responsible for the bloodlines that we celebrate today in so many horses. I'll always be grateful to the wealthy people who imported foundation sires and dams like Nasrullah, Princequillo, Teddy, La Troienne, Mahmoud, and so many others. I'll be grateful for their breeding decisions that produced horses like Man o' War, Citation, Native Dancer, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, right up to our newest Kentucky Derby winner.

Not to get too mushy about this, but even though I'll never live in their world, I'm glad they share a bit of it with us through the horses.

Christopher Chenery bred and raced one of the greatest horses of all time, and didn't live to see his Secretariat win the Triple Crown. Yet those of us old enough then did get to see it, and we all can still enjoy it thanks to the wonders of YouTube, DVD, etc. For me, anyway, that's a gift that keeps on giving, from a rich man I never met.

Let,s be honest nobody in there right mind would have picked Mine That Bird to win the Kentucky Derby

after his mediocre showing at Sunland Park and yet he wins this race by more than 6 lengths.Either the public was wrong or there is something terribly wrong with the result,only time will tell.

I may be getting old and cynical, but I just don't believe that a horse can improve from a previous best Beyer of 81 to a 105, while going an additional distance, on an off track, in a 19 horse field, against some of the best of his generation, without something being amiss!  Granted, Calvin now has two of the most amazing rides in Derby history, but when was the last time a horse improved this much to win the Derby?  

What's in the water in New Mexico? Watch out, there's a hotbed of untapped talent in that state. Borel, the miracle worker, has everybody's number. Speaking of numbers, this is a sport built on statistics, but every once in awhile a horse & rider come along to jerk everyone into the reality that even the lowliest of entries CAN & DO make a statement. There are exceptions to every rule. You saw it on May 2, regardless of whatever excuse you may come up with. Hey, we thought of something else besides the economy & that's a good thing!

I agree Brigitte about training in high altitude/ more red blood cells=more oxygen-more stamina. You see that in runners who train at high altitudes and ditto for figure skaters.

Wow, Amy S-Texas, you sound angry. Sorry that a nice little horse winning the derby makes you so upset. If you hate racing so much then maybe you shouldnt be on blogs for racing.

Mark Johnson is the new Churchill Downs announcer, and it's his voice - British accent and all - that you hear on the replay found on the Bloodhorse website.  But Tom Durkin did the call for NBC.  Neither of them picked up Mine that Bird immediately when he burst to the front, but Johnson had him a good four or five strides sooner, and didn't hesitate over his name like Durkin did.  I thought Johnson's call was overall better.  

GREG- THERE ARE PLENTY OF WINNING EXACTA TICKETS POSTED ON ESPN AND PHOTOBUCKET- CUTE STORY... I could have come here and said the same thing and copied those scans....if it were true- no horse player in the world would have questioned cashing it as u did....

One of the great things about this derby is that everyone will give up on speed figures until the next War Emblem wins.  Of course, speed figures will then come back until the next ??? wins and so on and so on.  There will never be a set of stats that will point only to THE horse that will win.

Also remember that Birdstone went off at high odds in the Travers and won that too.

    "Curlin: MineThatBird ran 2:02.66. It really is a great time based on wet track precedents. unbridled ran 2:01 on a good track."  Edward, thanks for the correction.  I meant to say 2:02 3/5.  I guess I didn't proof read what I was writing.  As for the track conditions, I was solely talking about the Derbys where the tracks were labeled as muddy/sloppy, not good.

    "It's o.k. that he wears a cowboy hat etc (someone complained about this in another posting). That's who he is."  Paula, I didn't catch who complained about him wearing a cowboy hat.  That's just plain ridiculous.  If FF won the Derby, you better believe nobody would have said a thing about Larry Jones' cowboy hat.

    "Sort of reminds me how Charismatic was bashed for breaking his maiden in the Derby and later went off at pretty good odds in the Preakness"  MikeM, Charismatic didn't break his maiden in the Derby.  He at least won a GII in his last race before the Derby.  MTB finished off the board in non-graded stakes race right before the Derby.  I'm thinking MTB goes off at odds of 15-1 or so for the Preakness.  Like I said, if anyone is a believer, they'll get good odds once again.  I personally won't play him on top, but I won't make the mistake of leaving him off of my exotics' tickets.

Smarie, I agree with you about the level of attention being paid to the horses being dependent on the money paid for them.

Forbigred, I agree with you on Dunkirk. I didn't see what they were all going on about him for either, finally decided it had more to do with how much he cost.

Same with Regal Ransom & Desert Party. I liked what I saw with Regal Ransom in the Dubai race and he did finish ahead of DP in the Derby. Musket Man was getting some attention, but not as much as his record and performance should have earned him. He did good yesterday. I knew General Quarters wasn't going to do as well as he should have when I saw him during the post parade. He looked like a cat that is being forced to walk through water, if he could have shaken his feet off, he would have. Glad to see MTB do what he did. How much do you think training at a high elevation and then coming down to race had an effect?

Brigitte.......lol.......we just saw a one hit wonder- forget the Belmont- Bird wont eevn place in the Preakness- neither will the flop FF!!!

As for Birds trainer------lol------how fast the bubble burts and the clouds of scandal and lies set in.....yuppers.....the sport of kings!!!!!

I also dont blast FF after the race- I said on these boards he would be off the board and no factor.

Wow!  What a derby!  I can not say enough about the connections of Mine That Bird!  My family owns Smooth Air who was a fellow long shot in last years Derby and this is what racing is all about.  The little guy can always pull through and thank GOd for that!  That's why we are all in this game - congrats to the owners and God bless with what whatever the future holds for this great horse and his owners and trainer!

Greg.  

Enjoy! :-)

www.derbymuseum.org/news

It's been fun.  I thought I had a winner at the top of the stretch.

POTN on Top

   with

CC, Papa Clem, MM

   with

CC, Papa Clem, MM, Summer Bird

I picked up MM from this blog (live longshots) and I loved Birdstone in the slop (picked the wrong one).  

With IWR's run against Papa Clem and POTN can't help but think he would be in that second pace stalker group.  BUT, there was no way his connections would run an off track.

Like I have been saying all along DIRT horse sometimes hate Churchill but it also appeared that the Synthetic "Specialists" loved it.  

Dunkirk...FF...two of the strangest training patterns I have ever seen.  Though Dunkirk may have had sone excuse (3 races certainly did not make him the most aggressive of horses) but that FF had NO excuse.  He sat in behind Papa Clem just fine.

I hope someone has pictures of Mine that Bird's trip from New Mexico...perhaps letting him out at a local truckstop to stretch.

With the exception of Mine that Bird and the two favorite's no show I thought the form held.  We knew POTN liked to run as does CC.  Papa Clem and Musket were no suprise.  How about a round of applause for another horse that could (MM).  No one has told him yet that he is supposed to be a miler).  

2 (Santa Anita Derby Winner)

3 (Illinois Derby Winner)

4 (Arkansas Derby Winner)

5 (Santa Anita Runner Up)

6 (Showed in the Ark Derby)

Greg J,

Congrats, and CASH THAT TICKET! :)

Has anyone heard from Andrew Beyer?  Is he busy re-adjusting the Florida Derby in light of yesterday?  He needs to fix his synthetic to dirt "standard error of measurement."  Let's hear it for ALL who prepared on synthetics.

I think I have to agree with Brigitte about the higher Altitude training that "The Bird" had.  

I've also heard that in the past about Argentina or South America in general and if that's true then it's also no wonder why Invasor, Candy Ride and either Different or Paseana (I forget which was from there) were all so good when they shipped here to the states.

And also something about back in the 1968 Mexico City Olympics a lot of records were broken because they are below sea level.

Same theories I believe ???

birdstone out of smartsrike mare

dosage people better check those figures

AmyS.-Texas:

There is too much drug use in horse racing, but I don't see it with Mine That Bird. He was calm and collected with all the noise & people around him before the race and after the race. The only time I saw him jump is when Calvin Borel slapped him on the neck after the race because he was so excited. And the next day, he stood there very calm with all the people taking pictures. Horses that are hopped up to run don't do that. If he had any advantage over the other horses, it would be coming down from a high elevation. Colorado can look for training tracks coming their way. :-)

Mine That Bird's pedigree is full of Kentucky derby winners and contenders. Thanks maiden watch and blood-horse for covering him as a two year old. This horse really redeemed himself after finishing last in the juvenile.

      From a pedigree standpoint MTB would have been an easy pick !  His sire Birdstone denied Smarty Jones the Belmont ,His sire Grindstone won the Derby and so did his sire Unbridled !  So it's easy to see why MTB had the pedigree to win It was just hard to bet him from a handicappers point of view ...

Congrat to Mr Borel and connections of winning horse, one thing I don,t understand is Lucas and Zito entering those two horses, just like their name in print.Must have owners with endless bank rolls. One for the little guys.Hope he does well later on

Hey folks,

The Derby was MTB's 3rd off a layoff.  His first race of 2009 was his first in dirt, and he fought hard all the way down the lane.  His 2nd race back, the jock made a big, bold, premature move, and he flattened out, just getting nudged out of the 3rd spot.  Haskins wasn't the only one who noticed his strong gallop out at Churchill...we did too.  Everybody on HRTV was saying what a great gallop out Desert Party had, but the jock kept tapping him.  MTB did it all on his own.

Birdstone has 25 runners currently.  A filly came second to Rachel Alexandra in The Oaks, four clear of the rest.  MTB won The KY Derby, and Summer Bird came 6th in the Derby, having to close while well wide.  And he has another stakes winner in Texas Birdstone.

That's over 10% spring classic performers to runners.  And if you missed it last year, Birdstone ended 2008 as the #1 sire by Percent Juvenile Stakes winners(6%...higher than Storm Cat even), and from a book of mares with a CI of 1.19!

By our analysis, there were 12 Derby entrants bred for 10 or more furlongs.  By our genetic analysis, only ten entrants were bred well enough to have the "genetic compatibility" to get the Derby distance.  Our "dual qualifier" list had 9 horses on it...and the first 6 finishers on Saturday were all "dual qualifiers" by our ways of assessing Derby horses.

Death to handicapping because MTB won?  Are you kidding?  This is why we love parimutuel wagering, especially on Derby day!

We hit the $1 trifecta and had the super but were not rich enough to bet it safely.  And yes, we are not totally objective...we have a 2009 colt by Yonaguska (Musket Man IS bred to get the distance in our opinion, partly because of Yonaguska.  It wasn't that he COULDN'T run well at two turns...his owners kept him sprinting!) and four of our mares are booked to Birdstone this year.  They were booked well before the Derby too by the way, with two already pronounced "in foal".

Blog all you want...just watch out for classic horses coming from Birdstone now and in the years to come.  His runners are precocious, unflappable, and several have speed that can carry 10-12 furlongs.  I see MTB's major competition in The Belmont to be Summer Bird if both can get there safely.

In the post parade Saturday, I got chills watching Mine That Bird walk by.  He is perfectly balanced...very much like his sire.  That's why we expect even more and better things from Birdstone.  Class and distance...overlook him at your parimutuel peril.

Greg, Cash the ticket and enjoy. There have been mistakes made by tellers that went the other way. I somehow went against my rule of not using the all button and had the POTN/all/all/POTN exacta. I can't believe that people have said they thought the exacta payout was on the light side. I thought I might get 1300 or 1500 if I was lucky. The story about the conections of MTB will be huge by tomorrow. Add to that the complaints of some serious doping going on in New Mexico horse racing and the media will go crazy!!

Weird race. Mine That Bird didn't run the best race, though, that was Pioneer. He ran an incredible race. MTB was more than 10 lengths behind him, saved ground all the way around while Pioneer was at least in the 3 or 4 path, was up on the speed with much too fast fractions, and then was beaten 6 3/4 while looking absolutely exhausted. If he recovers, he'll be tough down the road, but this was a tough, tough race for him. Very sorry for Friesian Fire, he was my pick after I Want Revenge was out.

Should have remembered my macaw and bet on the bird horses, although if I'd had to choose one, it would have been Summer Bird. Still can't see how MTB won this, other than Borel, who seemed to be the only one who realized there was a strong rail bias. MTB will have to do it again for me to think this was anything but a weird result.

Well all I can say is what a depressing day. I had a trifecta with POTN, Musket Man, and Papa Clem and out of newhere here comes Calvin (a great name for a horse I might say). Fabulous ride but maybe we got another flash in the pan here, who knows. I should have known the day was going to go from bad to worse when IWR was scratched. Look at who was on the sidelines, IWR, Quality Road, Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, The Pamplemousse, Take the Points, Street Hero and Square Eddie to name some. This seems to happen every year, many of top horses never get to the dance. Owners and trainers better wake up and change their tactics. I have never seen it this bad. No wonder this great sport is in trouble. What happened to IWR was a nomily I get that, but c'mon now. I will eat my words if I am wrong but I see a flash in the pan here. MTB runs 4th at Sunland at a 1 1/8 in 150 3/5 in his last race, gimme a break.

Kudo's to Calvin he surely rode a great race and he kept the horse out of trouble. It was Street Sense all over again.

'Oh where have you gone Joe DiMaggio'...............ugh

This Derby was extremely difficult to handicap, but I think it was a quality field, undiminished by Mine That Bird's shocking victory. In a previous post I said that the horse's form was darkened by his losses at Sunland Park and that was the reason we overlooked his 2-year old record in Canada. We were simply guilty of bad handicapping! Any experienced handicapper knows of Birdstone's offsprings' ability to run on off tracks; we just ignored the signs that were there to see! Because of the difficulty I had analyzing the race, I played the Oaks/Derby double (6 with all) and got back $248 anyway. It didn't get me even, but it helped. I still think we were set up by the winner's connections and that we fell for the deliberately-darkened Sunland Park form! Oh, well! Trainers have been doing it to us for years!

Greg J.  and Horsenut

How about Greg paying for the wedding LOL!  

Amy S

What do you mean?

I don't know why the political bribes of MTB's part-owner should matter at all.  Politics (and business) at all levels involve bribes, kickbacks, pork, etc., and Alaska was notorious for this.  Involvement in this doesn't make Allen at bad guy, just one who knew how to play the system (or more accurately, had a father who told him how to play the system.)  As long as the horse is clean and safe, shady business dealings shouldn't take anything away from a victory.  Most business men, if indicted, would have plenty of shady dealings to show!

I really believe that Mine That Bird's win is a wonderful thing for the sport. Now a days, horse racing is so blue blooded, dominated by owners like IEAH... to see a small company with a long shot horse take such a prestigious race, i really have nothing to say but good for them! Really, they seem like such down to earth nice guys, you can't help but take your hats off to them. Especially after their tribute to Barbaro & the fans today at the Derby Museum. I sincerely hope that this horse and his connections can repeat and show the world again that a gelding, counted out by 99% of horse racing, is capable of greatness. Good luck at the Preakness & Belmont.

Jason, give me a break...Calvin may own the rail but MTB didn't "steal" the race by 7 lengths...he owned it...by a nose or even a length you could say he "stole" it, not 7 lengths.

Also, every other jockey could use the same technique, what Calvin B has is "B's"...he's totally secure on that rail and weaves his horses in and out.

Everybody else could have been squeezed at the start and had to drop back to get out of the crush, but would all weave through 18 horses on the rail..?

PS I did say on SH's blog "48 Hours" to "beware of non-descript little brown horses that motor on while the "better" horses battle it out...e.g. Birdstone" who I also picked as the only horse who could last longer than SJ.

I appreciate MTB salvaging this Derby to having a respectable time on a sloppy track, 2:02.66, let's see POTN was 6 3/4 lengths back, 5 lengths = 1 second, 1 length = .20 seconds, 3/4 length = .15 second, so POTN would have won in 2:04.1, yeah, MTB didn't win his race, Calvin stole the race...

Helsbells, I beg your pardon for not responding to you, so here it is. I agree, we disagree about synthetic tracks.

The wiz did it again with the assist going to his gr-daughter. I played the late pick 4 by taking 5 in the 8th race, singling Informed Decision and Einstein, and using my top 3 (PON, FF, and MM) Derby Picks, my 4 yr old gr-sons choice (Papa Clem, he likes orange so took the 7 with the orange saddle cloth), and my 3 yr old gr-daughters pick of Mine That Bird (she likes birds). Between the 3 of us we had the super too bad I didn't just box our picks up there. I raked in over $20,000 with a $25 dollar bet. Go figure, I would not have bet this horse if my life depended on it except I gave each gr-child a pick I would use so they had a horse to pull for. It only added $10 to the ticket but is the best $10 I ever spent. My gr-son was at the track with me but my gr-daughter was at home taking a nap. This game can humble the mightest of experts on any given day but sometimes you get very lucky.

Thanks Gary, I totally agree with you. I have a winning Birdstone and have followed them all year and kept saying one would win the derby. I had the wrong one across the board but used MTB in exacta's and lost by a nose. But I dont care, I feel like a winner just because its a Birdstone!

How can people claim its a hoax and not give credit where its due?  The horse is well bred and people have overlooked Birdstone because he isnt commercial and Marylou kept his fee low on purpose. He is a leading first and second crop sire and has been since his first runners hit the races. People just wanted to see the expensive horses, stallions, etc represented to validate their purchases. The handicappers, bloggers, etc. have played into the game of money meaning best. Sale horses are always cosmetically perfect and if not sometimes they will surgically alter them to make them look perfect. My horse wasnt xray perfect but he hasnt disappointed at the track one bit. MTB wasnt either and he has won the derby. Birdstone may be little and not the prettiest thing but he has a heart and he is passing that on to his offspring. I hope the owners keep his fee down. I still think a lot of mares wont be bred to him based on his looks. I have  a friend that has a mare that I've been telling to breed to him since way before this and some pedigree expert was talking him out of it on sale looks! Im happy for the little guy, MTB, not his owners or trainer, they aren't the horse.

Helsbells, I gave you a flippant response, but here are some of my thoughts. Yes, I think synthetics help mask unsoundness. When California went this direction, I felt it was a bandaid. Why not address the root problem: the drug culture at the track. Why were horses able to run hundreds of years on dirt relatively unscathed? I think because they weren't drugged.Drugs to mask pain, drugs to keep them from bleeding, drugs to open their bronchial tubes, drugs to improve their appetite...

Regarding IWR, his trainer has been suspended how many times for drugs? Also, synthetics have, in the early going, produced a higher incidence of soft tissue injuries which is apparently what IWR has.

I TAKE MY HAT OFF TO THE DERBY WINNER. BUT WHY DONT WE TALK ABOUT WHY NO ONE IN THIS RACE RAN A LICK.IF YOU LOOK AT THE AIR CAMERA NOT ONE HORSE RAN BY ANOTHER HORSE SEEMS FISHY TO ME THAT ALL THESE GREAT TRAINERS AND ALL THESE EXPENSIVE HORSES WONT RUN AT ALL ON THE BEST DAY ALL AT THE SAME TIME,I DONT BUY IT.ITS NOT HOW GREAT THIS HORSE RAN ITS HOW BAD EVERYONE ELSE RAN ARE THESE HORSES BEING STOPPED?

Any of you actually RIDE horses? You'd know that all those silly number really don't tell you anything, as Smarie posted. If the horse isn't 'showing up' that morning, is grumpy, gassy, doesn't like the weather, etc. and the jockey isn't in sorts either, your best horse will go kablooey.  These are personalities we're talking about, not numbers and indexes. And the Derby is such a free-for-all anymore, with the huge field, and the above factors. Too hard to get it right anymore. I wish they limit it to one gate's worth. Congrats to the little Bird and all his connxs! That was a fabulous race, and great for the 'little guys' playing 'the game' of racing!

Why do they continue to have Tom Durkin call this race?  He is awful. I saw Mine That Bird coming up the rail and NOT ONCE did Durkin mention the horse's name until near the finish line. That was THE WORST race call I have ever heard. Bring back Dave Johnson, Durkin stinks.

I guess this just goes to show that a horse from some little hick track or however draynay refers to them as can win the Derby. That being said I was stunned not only by the winner but by the margain of victory. I'm happy for the trainer,horse, and jock but not  for the rich oil man who was involved in and used the profits from a public scandal to spend big bucks to buy the horse. Guess we just followed the wrong oil man in the run-up to the Derby. Who says money no matter how dirty can't buy you fame. Nothing against the trainer, horse, or the jock intended here either. Does any jockey shoew more pure emotion than Calvin Bo-Rail when he wins a big one?

MTB's time was 2 seconds faster than Smarty in the slop, 2 2/5 sec. faster than Sunday Silence in mud, 1 second faster than Go For Gin, only 1/5 second slower than Spectacular Bid & Silver Charm on a Fast track, and faster than a number of Derby winners on fast tracks, but that's OK, Calvin "stole" the race by a mere 6 3/4 lengths.

BH should not be lusting for blood until "facts" actually are known not "alleged" "perhaps" "might" "appears"...I know, those "scoop" headlines...gotta love it.

It's not the horses in horse racing I'm sick of...

Funny thing is, that horse will likely never win another race, just like Giacomo. What a terrible race! The favorites amd second choices were winning all day long, and here comes Borail up the rail again. WTF!! I still hit a pick 4 earlier in the day.

This is the first derby that trainers have not used steroids. I think MTB's performance could be linked to the fact that he was trained at a high altitude and could have a much higher red cell mass and oxygen carrying factor.

Jason, got to believe the Preakness will be very interesting from a betting perspective. I know were not sure who will be entered from the Derby and that it will probably change daily, but if you assume MTB runs and add Big Drama and Mr. Fantasy to the mix - this is getting wild. Can't believe MTB will be odds on favorite in the Preakness do you??

IMO the only real talent we saw in the winner's circle on Saturday was the jockey.  He's a master of the Churchill oval.  The horse, eh, he picked up the pieces of a race that fell apart, much like Giacomo did in '05.  Saturday's race was run about two seconds faster than Smarty's sloppy win on '04. And most of that fast mile and a quarter wasn't MTB's time, he just came running at the end while the others were staggering home.  A half in 47 and change over that sticky track took all the starch out of anyone near the front, leaving it open for a closer and the one with Calvin aboard was the one that got the shortest trip.  Kudos to Calvin, but I will be surprised to hear much of MTB in the future.  He'll have to do it again to convince me.  

Sorry to hear about FF's injuries, but reports I've read indicate that he'll be fine before long.  

Dave, I couldn't agree with you more. Mine That Bird is Giacamo Junior. I believe it is highly unlikely he will win many if any other stakes races, period. He is a second rate horse who got extremely lucky and was given the ride of his lifetime by an expert jockey. Had he any other jockey than Borel he would probably be still running.

I actually broke out with laughter after the race. This has totally convinced me that this sport continues to sour. Congrats to the winner but the question is "How could all of those graded horses run so bad?". Maybe the light bulb will go on that someone should take a hard look at what's going on here. What was the real reason that that I Want Revenge scratched on the day of the Derby? Come on, you have got to be kidding me that the millions of dollars spent on all those horses and they are double digits lengths behind! It is a disgrace and has really made me step back and think about being a fan of horse racing.

Sad, really sad....

Congrats to MTB, Borel, and the connections.  What a race.  My own picks were way off, none, in the top 5.  Good luck to everybody in the Preakness.

Cheers,

Heather

Paula, yes MTB'S connections certainly do need a course in Charm School. Talk about arrogent nasty people. Woolleys comments to the press were totally disgusting to me and unnessary. Baffert and Lucas know how to handle a Derby and how to talk to people, They don't blow them off.

The perfect storm.

In order for Mine That Bird to win everything had to go right for him and most everything wrong for the others.

1) FF grabs a quarter - no chance.

2) Dunkirk stumbles badly just after the break - no chance (reported injured leg in DRF story).

3) The balance maybe not as good as most people think.

4) Gary Stevens said the track was like a wet/fast track - similar to running on grass.  Mine That Bird is a synthetic trak specialist.  His four wins at Woodbine were all on that surface. The Woodbine surgace is very kind to grass horses.

5) Getting squeezed at the breeak and being forced to take back when Borel wanted to race forwardly.  Probably the best thing because he stayed clear of the stress and trauma of running mid pack or up close with this many horses.

When it was time to go he was like a perfectly loaded gun (rocket if you look at the overhead shot)

This is good for racing and congrats to everyone involved.  In these troubled times which still seem to benefit the rich, the little guy finally wins one.

Billy's empire: No they weren't winning, they were only ahead until the winner went by. Hey, I would have had the superfecta if that little brown horse had stayed home...

Hil, guess only one horse wasn't grumpy, out of sorts, etc on D-Day...LOL. (and, yes I ride, 40 years, dressage, jumping,... was exercise gal, walked hots, rubbed, wrapped, etc in younger days.)

Pimlico's current list of possibles for the Preakness:

Big Drama

Charitable Man

Friesan Fire

Hull

Join in the Dance

Mine That Bird

Miner's Escape

Mr. Fantasy

Musket Man

Papa Clem

Pioneerof the Nile

Take the Points

This Ones for Phil

Jason, i just read your line about Dunkirk stumbling, and he never recovered from that...and that's why he finished mid=pack...I love yah, but boy when you have a favorite it's every excuse in the book, I remember Rags & even though SHE stumbled, ran wide all the way around and beat ALL the best colts in the 3 year-old TEST of Champions, you sports writers could only see 5 lbs...jeesh, ;-)

My futures exacta paid 426.20 each time I had it so 5 times gave me a return of 2131.00 I'll take it and won't make any excuses. My other top picks aside from PON didn't show up. I've been around long enough to see my choices or in alot of cases favorites come in second under a horse nobody gave a chance. That is what prompted me to play the "field" over my picks just in case. The "field" from pool 2 in the futures usually contains a half dozen or more Derby entrants so it's not as much a gamble as you might think. This year it contained 10 or 11 if I am recalling it right. It's a handicapping angle some use especially in a wide open race.

DONNA and Dave,

I too parallel Mine That Bird to Giacamo. I made a thousands

betting against Giacamo in his races post KY Derrby. I don't see this horse winning many major stakes races the rest of his career.

NOT A HAPPY CAMPER!!!

We all know the most important thing in the world is the Safety of the horse. According to there barn "Mine That Bird" They will probably pass on the Preakness.

The Reason myself and over 120,000 other fans purchase Tickets in advance every year for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont is because #1 its required 8 months in advanced and #2 to root for the Winner of the Derby to move on and win the Preakness & Belmont and complete the Triple Crown which has not been won for over 30 years!!.

WHY ELSE WOULD I GO??? With the legal problems the owners are having it makse me suspect its all about belmont & 5 million $$..

I myself Personally as a fan would have no desire to drive to Maryland when my original reason for Purchasing tickets would be to see a horse take a run at the Triple Crown. Its Not only about the owners and money, The fans are just as important in horse Racing.

Its Not mandatory for the Winner of the Kentucky derby to take a run at the Triple Crown, But its customary that you do!!.

Yeah, what a farce - The winner coming off a just out of the money race at a hick track with nothing but hick trainers.  Geez, and an 80 Beyer, to boot.  Well, who were some of those "hick and cowboy" trainers of several of the runners?  The winner had won the Best Pal at DM, but was DQed for interference - Then, he ran a strong 2nd at SA trained by that "cowboy" Mike Machowsky - The 2nd place and 3rd place colts were trained by those "cowboys" Bob Baffert and Doug O'Neill - The fifth place horse with the 77 Beyer, but, an 87 Speed rating was trained by that "cowboy of cowboys" Todd Pletcher - That colt was Advice, who was shipped to Keeneland and won, with a 94 Beyer, the Lexington Gr 2.  The Beyers for Sunland were highly skewed.  The field had quality colts and trainers.  Also, go back and check the hot fractions for that mile and an eighth race - They finished in 1:50, but, the early fractions were :45.1, 1:10 and l:36.2.  MTB closed in a duel and was passed in a tight finish.  However, it was this race which put a great deal of bottom in him.  Just wish my brain had been working better, last Saturday.

Harry,

You mustn't think ill of the sport.  Things like this happen occassionally.  CD's track can be like peanut butter when it's wet and if there had been no rain, you would have seen a different outcome. The derby is not like any other race and the main reason is there are too many horses in it and there are horses who don't belong in it.  No horse will ever run in a field that large ever again.  It causes too many problems but that's horse racing.

MTB was sitting on a huge race.  Now, he may be the real deal or he may be a flash in the pan.  The next 2 races will tell. I think you will see another winner in the Preakness and probably in the Belmont unless this horse turns out to be a TC winner, which I doubt.  TC winners were all exceptional horses from the outset.  They didn't start running at the Derby, they could always run but who knows?  Saturday was the upset I knew was coming but I have no idea how good this horse is.  He may just now be coming into his own.  

I hope that QR and IWR heal in the next couple of weeks and let's see what happens then.

Well, I'll give Andy Beyer credit for trying to explain what happened, but it must be a terribly humbling experience for him as well as all the other mavens of the sport.  After reading a lot of the posts in this blog I have two thoughts: one, let's wait until the blood tests come back before we annoint this horse with all the accolades due a Derby winner. Two, if he tests OK, look towards the heavens for the answers....

Hil

Nice post.  I have always said this.  When they are in the gate, it is 19/1 for every horse (that was the Derby).  One day they asked Todd Pletcher what his biggest rivil was and he said "19 other horses".  That was a different Derby.  Every since then that stuck.  The odds are the horses. How ever many there are.  They all have a chance at a win when they are in that gate.  Look at FF.  Second to last.  I wish that he hadn't got hurt but never the less, good example of the paper. :)

One of the most Rediculous answers to a question was the Trainer & owners says depending how the bloodtest comes back than we will decide to run the Preakness!!

So let me get this correct, do they know something we dont know?? obviously if the drug screen comes back positive he surely will not race. What a Joke! he makes it sound like he did something to the horse!. lol

Curlin - ment to say he broke his maiden in a maiden claiming. Look that up while you're at it. Oh, and by the way,to all you nay sayers, keep bashing him. I love it.

Tom Durkin is past his prime and I agree it was an waful race call. Back in the day he was the man. I think John Dooley would be great at calling the Derby. Maybe even Dave Johnson can come back.

Greg J

 Hope you tip the teller who made the mistake for you.

For Big Red

You gotta be kidding me!  FF is entered in the Preakness?  My Lord they are going to kill that horse.  How stupid.  He is hurt!  Let him heal!

I'm just now getting to read these posts--we were without power here in north Texas until late last evening.

First, this MTB is a well bred little horse that had been training at a high altitude--more RBC's and more hemoglobin = greater oxygen binding capacity. Others have noted that on this blog, and it is correct. Second, this Derby is the first without the influence of anabolic steroids. I tried to point out (to m palmer, I think) on Steve's blog several months ago that we would see a new pattern of winning statistics emerging from this point forward. Historical analysis and handicapping tools will be affected as new "facts" become evident. Even this morning on another BH blog concerned with breeding, someone is predicting that Smart Strike will be considered a classic distance sire, and therefore MTB's dosage should have been much lower. When that sort of evolutionary shift occurs, and it is combined with the way lack of steroids may affect sprint type speed, then the profile of a winner (at any distance) will be altered accordingly. I don't know how much all of this truly impacted Mine That Bird, but I am happy for a Derby winner from the southwest by way of Canada!

Sal B- What are you talking about??? They never said anything about the bloodtest. They said they will see how the HORSE is after the race.

Now, I hear on the news that the trainer said this morning that they are going on to Pimlico.

Look at it this way. If MTB'S connections diss the Preakness then we know their hand is tipped. They know the Derby was a fluke, as many of us do, and know their horse has no chance to win, as many of us do.

The best news is that all the horses came back sound. The stories are still in-tact and this weekend was phenomenal.

In my 11:53A.M. post, I used the phrase "evolutionary shift". I'm not referring to the Theory of Evolution, but to the definition of the word "evolve" as in "to unfold", "to expand", or "to develop". In other words, just the way things change in life.

You know I have been going through these posts and I am disturbed at the little snide remarks toward Greg winning that exacta and some of the other nasty things that people are saying.  

The people that really and truly care about horses are the ones that are saying good things.  So what you lost money?  I lost money but you know what?  That is why they call it GAMBLING!  If you wanna be pissy about losing money, blame it on yourselves.  NOT the horse, NOT the jockey and the connections.  Please just let the little guy have his fame and love the little guy "Mine that Bird"!  Such a beautiful story and a wonderful Derby.

Greg J.  I KNOW you are telling the truth about that ticket.  :)

Look what those connections did on Sunday.  Do these top hot shot owners and trainers do that?  Hell no.  BARBARO got his roses that he hated the first time LOL along with a lot of fans.  If you can't be positive about Mine That Bird and happy about this, then don't say anything at all.  

    It absolutely amazes me how many people have come on this blog and are stating they had the exacta, trifecta, super, etc. yet nobody posted anything about Mine That Bird before the race.  The only story I'm inclined to believe is Greg J with the teller "mistake".  At least he had the guts to admit he didn't have the horse, but was lucky so to say.

    MikeM, no need for me to look up Charismatic breaking his maiden in a claiming race.  I already know he broke his maiden in a MCLM 62,500 race & a few races later, if someone had the money, they could have claimed him for 62,500 yet again.  You can look that up if you want.

    For Big Red, thanks for the list of possible Preakness entrants.  I'd love to see Hull run.  I know Dray has been all over Big Drama for his speed, but Hull can hang with him in that department.  The horse looked fantastic in the Derby Trial.  He's never been 2 turns, but it shouldn't be a problem for him.  Like I've already said, I won't play Mine That Bird on top in the Preakness.  In the last 15 or 16 years, outside of the ill-fated Barbaro who didn't have a chance to run, there have only been 2 Derby winners who came back in the Preakness and finished off the board and that was Sea Hero & Monarchos.  Maybe MTB becomes the 3rd in the last 16 or so years, but based on the percentages, he should finish on the board in the Preakness & at good odds.  Just some food for thought.

    "Well, I'll give Andy Beyer credit for trying to explain what happened, but it must be a terribly humbling experience for him as well as all the other mavens of the sport."  Bill, does that mean it should be a humbling experience for the other 99% of handicappers who didn't have MTB as well?  As many have stated, Beyer speed figures are just one in a long list of handicapping tools.  They are not the end all be all.  They're obviously the main tool Andy Beyer uses, but seriously, you could have used just about any handicapping tool you wanted before the Derby and MTB would have been a hard sale by any standards.  Unless you or anyone else swept the card on Derby Day, was it a humbling experience to miss a race based on the methodology you used to come up with your pick before the race?

So I'm at the Del Mar OTB speaking with my step-father about how in the hell this horse came in. About 15 mins after the race, I hear a huge scream from this lady about 20ft from me. You would've thought that she was getting mugged or something. Next thing I know about 10 other people huddle around her and tell her that she hit the super in the Derby! LOL. I'm thinking to myself, well that would be the only way for someone to hit a race like that. Bring in someone new to the game, give them a program and say good luck to them. And did she ever have it. What's amazing is that this could've been a ticket layin' on the floor had no explained to her that the bet she made was a winner. Unbelievable.

Jason get the picture of Greg's ticket--I can't show you that but I can show you this posted by Greg J

Friesan Fire(pp#6, 5-1), Chocolate Candy(PP#11, 20-1), General Quarters(PP#12, 20-1), Summer Bird(PP#17, 50-1)....

That is my top four, $100.00 straight super, $100.00 straight tri....(I will mix up Summer & General, though)....

Fire will be on top of my other exotic's, but the ones above are my retirement fund, lol.....

(5-1, 20-1, 20-1, 50-1)

Greg J. 29 Apr 2009 1:26 PM

Hmm, $100 straight super? No Pioneer, yet we are supposed to believe he is even thinking of not cashing because it was a fluke and giving to charities? And I thought I wanted attention. At least I just don't wear a bra when I feel the need for it.

TO CRAZY STARDUST FOB: Please read carefully. I didn't say Friesan Fire is entered in the Preakness. I said he was being listed as POSSIBLE for the race.

As of now, there are no entries in the Preakness. That will happen officially the Wednesday before the race. Between now and then, the list of possibles will fluctuate, as is always the case.

    Right after the Derby, The owners had said that they didn't see the Preakness in the plans for their Horse, "Mine that Bird", It wasn't on the Radar for them.  The Preakness is a completely different race then the Derby, Shorter, Faster at start, everything that would not bode well for there Horse.  I would respect them if they didn't send him to the Preakness, He is bred more for the Belmont then the Preakness, plus two weeks for this horse just isn't enough time between races.  

   Then this morning on the way to work, A radio sports guy said that the owners of Mine that Bird OWE IT to horse racing to race him, that the public deserves it!, I could not disagree more, This Horse owes no one, The only person who should make that decision is the trainer, who knows this horse better then anyone. Even if the horse comes out perfect from the Derby, In my opinion, Two weeks & The type of race the Preakness is, That is asking too Much. Let him get ready for the Belmont, and go from there, They just Shocked the World, They have NOTHING to prove!

    Then I just Read, Now the Owners are going to race him in the Preakness.  I call that Greed and being Selfish for themselves, I guarantee you, The Trainer had NO PART of this, against his wishes, But Money talks and the rest is history.  If Mine That Bird doesn't do well in the Preakness, then everyone will say , He was a fluke, One hit wonder, If it wasn't for the Jockey in the Derby, He woud never have won, Etc....

   If he skipped the Preakness, and trained for the Belmont, He would have alot better chance at that race, then The Preakness, Don't get me wrong, I would Love for this little guy to win the Preakness, Then Win the Triple Crown!!!!, I just think THE OWNERS are being selfish and greedy, Just one man's opinion....

AMY S.,

     First off, You blast Friesan Fire for his performance, I think you need to educate yourself, F.Y.I., Fire Grabbed a quarter, got hit three or four times, has a huge gash on his front left leg, another horse stepped on his front hoof, he was battered and bruised after the race, He had a terrible trip, then the Jockey loosened the reins, Once he realized the horse was not himself,  and then let him finish the race on his own, a slow gallop....So please if you are going to bash a horse and take credit for saying he wouldn't hit the board, fine, Just realize the reasons why, Thanks...

AMY S.,

    One more thing, About my Winning $6.00 Exacta Ticket, First off, I am not taking credit for picking, "Mine that Bird", He was on NONE of my tickets, The Teller made a mistake(A great mistake!).

    Yesterday, When I realized it, I posted my Comment on this Blog,  And unlike you, A part of me thought it MIGHT be wrong to cash it((Kinda like if you find a wallet with $6,000.00 in it, Do you return it?, or Keep it?)), That was my first reaction, but then I thought it through, and since it was an honest mistake and no one actually lost the money, I decided I would cash it in, minus the tip to the teller, and minus the donation I decided I would make to The Barbaro Fund for Laminitis.  So yes, It did cross my mind maybe not to cash it in, That is just the type of person I am....

    Lastly, After I posted my comments, Jason requested a picture of it, Since I had his E-mail address from a prior subject, I took the ticket, Held it in front of my computer screen, Which has a picture of "Friesan Fire" on it(From the stretch run of the La. Derby!!!), Took out my Cell phone, Snapped the picture and E-mailed it too Him, Also I live in Bristol, CT., I work in Hartford, CT., The O.T.B. I purchased the ticket is in Hartford, The Ticket says "HARTFORD" on it, So NO, I didn't steal the picture off the internet from some where, That is not me, Never has been, Never will be, I don't know if the same could be said about you....

Stardust,

       It isn't official that Fire is in the Preakness, Just that he is a Possibility.  My gut says, No way Jones enters him, but that all depends on his Injury. Remember, Nicanor grabbed a quarter, and still raced three weeks later, But I do think Fire is banged up, and I don't think he will race in the remaining Triple Crown Races, Just my two cents...

aspradling- Well said! It sure got this blog buzzing... I'm rooting for MTB. It would be even more phenomenal if he went on to win the TC. Talk about shock!!!

Let's see what he does at the Preakness. If he wins, then I'll really get crazy. GO BIRD and take BOREL with you!!! You guys deserve no less! What a Derby you gave us. I have watched the replay over and over again and I can't get tired of it. I'm also very impressed by the fact that the horse did not look even a little bit tired after the race. He was so alert, so cool and so poised.

I was at the Derby when Giacomo won it. I never thought I would see another shocker like that. But here we are again...

Sal-B   They said they would pull a blood on him. They can tell alot about a horses condition by running a blood test. It's rediculus to think otherwise.

How in the world could anyone EVER mention this horse in the same breath as Seattle Slew??  The only thing I can figure is that horse really loved the track.  He came home in 23:1, as fast as Secretariat.  He never closed that fast in his life.  It is akin to me(an avid runner) all of a sudden winning the Olympic marathon.  This looks like a repeat to 2007 when Street Sense got a perfect rail trip in the Derby, but things changed in the Preakness and he wasn't so much better than Curlin, and they took their football, went home and bypassed the Belmont.  I only hope for a fast track at Pimlico where the horse will be exposed for just how good he really is.  Looking at the PP's I didn't see where the horse came from way off the pace and made one run, and now all of a sudden the owner says Pimlico may not suit him because he's a one run horse??  If MTB would have run a match race against Slew he would have lost by at least 20 lengths.  Yeah, let's see that one run with Slew in front by 25 lengths...

KAREN IN TEXAS:  Love your post of May 4, 11:53am.  Great insight.

I thought Mark Johnson's call was pretty good for his first try. At least he caught Borel when it counted most.

I just noticed that MTB finished last in the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita.  This means 4 out of the 6 place finishers raced at "The Great Race Place!"  Can we now claim MTB as a "Western" horse.

I thought Beyer's article in the DRF the day of the Derby (like synthetic bashing is new) made him look like a complete fool.  By the way, based on his Derby performance, I have adjusted the Santa Anita Derby winners time in that race to 100.  Let's face it the guy does not "get" synthetic surfaces and apparently does not want to.

Look for POTN to be the Preakness favorite.  He was never worse than 4th.  These are the types that win the Preakness.  Hope he has enough gas in his tank...he's been dancing a lot of dances.  

Thanks, Ranagulzion. My bio-medical orientation toward life causes me to think things through differently than some fans, handicappers, or other posters. In general, it serves me well.

Yes, Curlin, it is humbling to have not even considered this horse.  There is obviously something missing within our paradigms that allows us to entirely overlook a horse like this.  I have no idea what would make you consider him as a contender based upon what we know and use as conventional handicapping wisdom.  I've read here where the effects of training in a higher elevation such as New Mexico and descending to a lower elevation could account for increased performance, but I cannot believe it could possibly account for the sea-change in performance MTB demonstrated Saturday.  Yeah, this is humbling.  Let's be honest.

Just to clear this up again.. Allen (the co-owners) father signed a plea bargain that exempted all of his family members from charges for any connected crimes.  Allen later sold his share in the oil company for the $30m.  The sale was not a shady deal; the sole issue was that some of the oil rights were helped by a bill in the Alaskan congress which was passed through bribes (probably by almost all the oil companies.  That's how it works up there!)  Allen (the co-owner) is in NO legal trouble.  His father was required to testify at the hearings of Ted Stevens.  The father is ALSO not in any legal trouble (all that was settled with the plea bargain).  Allen gave a few bribes in order to pass legislation in the past (something that happens all the time in many different forms), nothing to do with horses, nothing to do with his current business.  It really is a non-story!

I must give a shout out to JASON.  You kept POTN high on your list of potential Derby winners...at one point listed as #1 (despite taking crap for it) and the "Live Longshots" (Papa Clem, CC, Musket Man) was dead on.  What could have been with a POTN, MM, Papa, CC superfecta!  The blog really helped me handicap.  I did not "see" MM before reading it.

Thanks.  

Greg J

If Jason confirms it, I apologize, and congratulate you for your good fortune. It hasn't been confirmed at this point.

Did you also take that $100 straight super and tri posted? Certainly I have never placed a bet with that confidence with such long shots. I found that a little hard to believe as well. Just my doubting nature.

Well holy cow, just read that the one co-owner, veterinarian Leonard Blach, has owned or had at stud Easy Jet, Go Man Go and Rocket Wrangler. The guy knows horseflesh. Combine that with the big bucks that Mark Allen has, and voila. (if only it were that easy).

"Mine that Bird" just won the Kentucky Derby in Record fashion,He beat Barbaro's modern day record, Regardless of how he did it, HE DID IT!, I wish everyone would give him the credit he deserves, It was an amazing victory......

ANNIEDUKE,

       Would you like me to send you the picture of my $100.00 tri ticket & $100.00 Super ticket?, Those were my picks, as well as $300.00 worth of other tickets, If you read my comments, I threw in some low dollar amount tickets of the favorites, just in case I was way off , Which I was, That's why they call it GAMBLING, I wanted a $6.00 straight exacta on Fire & Pioneer, and the teller made a mistake, instead of 6-16, she gave me 8-16...If people don't believe it, So be it, And to the people who said cash it in, Thank You, and I am going to, Like I said , Minus my tip to the teller, and To the Barbaro Fund......Only if you actually knew me, Then you would know why I asked what I did....

Smile ANNIEDUKE & AMY S.!!!, Life is too Short...

 Greg, Congrats!! I think the Derby Gods were smiling on you! As an "honest" person myself I say cash the ticket, buy yourself something pretty and donate the rest to Old Friends or ReRun or your horse charity of choice. Don't feel guilty.

 I was a bit taken aback by the trainers rudeness after the race but I don't hold it against him. It must be quite a change for him! And I think he made up for it the following morning with the roses. Would have loved to have been there.

 And that dang Calvin! Gotta love him! I was watching the developing battle with POTN, MM and PC(and the suprising tenacity of Join in the Dance) and then WHAT? who IS that? I realized it was Calvin but couldn't remember who he was riding! Luckily Durkin noticed him and told me who it was, and like so many of you I just burst out laughing. The only thought I had given to MTB all day was on the post VIV mentionted when she and another poster said he had no chance to win I replied that "anything can happen" and if they all get into the starting gate they all have a shot to win. Well...There you go, Viv.

 When I teach friends about handicapping I show them the form and tell them about what it means but I also tell them that some people handicap based on the horses color or the saddle cloth and that works just as well...lol.

 I also have a question for all of you who say this is a weak crop(and last year was too)...What crop WAS good enough for you? I hear(or read) all of this bashing of horses and I just can't understand it. I can't think of a more fair way to get in the Derby field than by graded stakes earnings...can you? I would like to see them lose the auxilary gate and take also entereds thus limiting the field to 14...with the also entereds entry fees etc the purse money shouldn't go down too much. I also disagree with having"win and you"re in " races for the Ky Derby. But as it stands the 20 horses who run in the Derby earned their way there and they DO belong. And I don't think for one second that if Nick Zito called YOU the morning of the draw and said "We can go to the Derby. Do you want to enter?" that you would say "NO! My horse doesn't belong. He might ruin it for someone else!". So anyway Please tell me what 3 y/o crop has met your standards? And besides Big Brown, Barbaro and Secretariat did ANY horse deserve to win the Derby, because those are the only ones I ever see mentioned in a positive light(as deserving winners of the Derby). It seems to me sometimes that some of you(Draynay) really don't like horses...you seem to think they are more like machines that people build and control. OK...I think this is my longest post ever!

TO:DRAYNAY

Very good point you made regarding Todd P. I also like Big Drama,think he has alot of talent,but I do think we had a much better field in the Derby this year compared to last.

This was a story straight out of Hollywood. Mine That Bird, hauled across country in a regular truck and trailer by his own trainer out of New Mexico. Long shot and and underdog so under hardly anyone mentioned him. Broke and trailed the pack well back around the first turn and all but disappeared. Seen again bursting through the rail, running by the other horses like they were tied to posts, and winning by almost 7 lengths. The emotional jockey, the humble trainer and owners. If this isn't the kind of "everyman" story that horse racing needs right now. Indeed, it may be the kind of story America needs.

TO:SLEWem.ALL

Thank God not everyone thinks like you in regard to your comment about would rather see someone from Dubai win than the "common man".

TO GREG J.: First, ignore the snipers on here re your ticket. I'm a natural skeptic, but even I'm not that far out. :)

Now about our Fire, I hope he doesn't go in the Preakness. I'm sure he's a very sore horse with some deep bruises as well as all the cuts. He got slammed really hard in his right shoulder by Papa Clem and knocked over at least two lanes. I'm surprised he didn't go down. It's hard to see on low-quality YouTube vids, but it's crystal clear on my DVR recording and large TV. I've played the race back many times. The great thing about DVR is you can stop and restart it anytime, so you can catch details not visible otherwise.

About seven seconds after the start, Clem ducks to his left sharply, slamming into Fire, who has to take an extremely wide step to his right to stay on his feet.

I'm sure that body slam, alone, stunned Fire. He was still trying to recover and get his legs going when the inside horses came over in a wad and Fire was literally surrounded by a bunch of horses. It was the equine equivalent of Jonah being swallowed by the whale. That's probably when he suffered most of his cuts.

Fire really had little chance after that, but Saez compromised whatever remaining chance he did have. Saez didn't give the colt time to settle after the nightmare start. Instead, he rushed Fire up between horses. He literally jerked the colt sharply to the left toward the rail, then changed his mind a couple of strides later, and pulled Fire back toward the center of the track behind a wall of horses. Around the far turn, Saez has Desert Party to the outside of him, and Fire is running about 6th or 7th. Once they straighten up on the backstretch, Saez pulls FF back slightly and around Desert Party to the outside. Once there, he didn't give FF a breather, but pushed the colt to try to go up with the leaders. He didn't have any horse left by then, and Saez eased him in the stretch.

Saez had zero patience early and never gave his colt a chance to have a decent finish. It was one of the worse rides I've ever seen in my life and, as noted before in these blogs, I have 49 years involvement with this sport. In my fantasy stable, Saez would never ride another one of my horses.

Fire, poor colt, covered almost more ground from side to side in the race than he did going forward. Sheesh!

The DRF race chart reads more like a demolition derby than a horse race. Their description of Fire's race summarizes what I described above in detail: "FRIESAN FIRE, bumped and squeezed at the start, raced in traffic with a little bit better than a mile to run, angled out five wide on the backstretch, made a mild run into the second turn, but faded soon after."

ALL: I posted some of this much earlier in this thread, and also over on Scot's blog a few minutes ago. Will repeat here, and maybe one other time in case it might be useful to some in the future.

When the Beyer figures were adjusted upward by eight points over a week after this year's Florida Derby, that gave me the impetus to do some in-depth analysis, not of the race, but of handicapping systems and Derby "truisms." I put together a spreadsheet, and recorded 38 separate criteria used by various handicapping systems, and Derby historical factors touted by pro handicappers/racing commentators. Everything from Dosage to BRIS, to Beyers, to Sheets, to trainer stats, jockey stats, lifetime and 2009 stats for the horses...you name it.

Once completed, I used a simple method to highlight positive, neutral and negative factors, then counted each category for each horse. Guess what. By far, Mine That Bird had the most negative factors. He was on the bottom or 2nd to the bottom in every system and by every touted measure. His only positive factors: He had one of the four post positions that have yielded the most Derby winners in history, and he was one of only six horses in the field with four or more lifetime wins prior to the Derby.

Personally, I dismissed MTB primarily because he had not won this year, his only two-turn win lifetime was by a 1/2 length at Woodbine against a mediocre field, and his last pre-Derby work was slow.

However, I ignored all the nonsense about Pioneerof the Nile and synth tracks, keeping him on my short list of potential winners. I picked against the hot wiseguy horse, Dunkirk, for all the correct, logical reasons. And the horse my heart wanted to see win the Derby, Friesan Fire, lost all chance at the start. Another on my short list of possible winners, Papa Clem, took FF out of the race at the start, but then ran a decent fourth.

If a horseplayer bet only those two angles -- 4 or more lifetime wins combined with winningest post positions, they would have been left with only two horses: Musket Man from the 2 hole and Mine That Bird from the 8 hole.

In addition to MM and MTB, only these horses had four or more lifetime wins: Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Pioneerof the Nile, and Desert Party. However, Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire and Desert Party all had NEGATIVE post positions (yielded among the fewest Derby winners in history). Pioneerof the Nile had a neutral PP.

(When Larry Jones selected PP 6 for Friesan Fire, my heart sank.)

To summarize, only the following horses qualified on lifetime wins and PP: Musket Man, Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile. None of the other 36 handicapping factors I tracked were predictive of the outcome. Not a single one.

Lastly, I've said all along in these blogs that the Derby would go to the horse with the best closing kick in the stretch. Early speed doesn't mean all that much in the Derby. However, I only calculated closing estimates for horses who won a 2-turn race this year. Next year, I'll be sure to calculate estimates for every horse in the race. :)

As I sat in the Mirage in Las Vegas watching all the derby races keeping close track on what was happening. I noticed that Borel and Gomez was winning early. Trainers with only one horse in a race were doing well and also Baffert had two other horses on derby day. They came in first and second. Looking at this simple data plus the inside posts were doing well I ignored a simple 10 dollar exacta box of gomez(baffert)-borel(MTB rail) for 20 bucks.

One thing I learned is everything I did was prior to the derby heloed me with 2-6th but watching Churchill weekend and how it progresses gets you that inside edge that can enhance your winning or save your day.

Jason,

I enjoyed this blog every week and and I can't wait for this to start all over again.

Greg J.

I have know all along that you were not lying.  Why are people so cruel and jealous.  Congrats on the mistake! I have made them too.  Thank You for putting some of the money on the Barbaro Fund.  I never in a million years would have thought you wouldn't.  :)

Big Red

I wasn't saying that toward you. I was thinking of the horse.  I hope they keep him out.  He needs to heal.  God Bless FF.  

jshandler

Well the only thing I would have hit is the 20 win on the Derby had Mine That Bird not flew past the pack but it was worth the loss to see such a wonderful race.  :)

barb..

Well said!  :)

ANNIEDUKE,

     Thanks, and Yes I did bet the $100 straight tri & super., I know it sounds crazy, and in hindsight, maybe it was, But when I hit the Tri on the Arkansas derby($1,100), I said to myself, I would take $200 of the top and place them on my four favorite picks in derby, which, I was wrong, but I stuck to my convictions, I honestly loved those four horses for that race.  But, Can you imagine if I did hit them?, One can only hope....

I pick up the DRForm and look at the "experts" picks. I am wondering why the hell anyone picked Dunkirk who raced 3 times. For the life of me I am not a great handicapper but i can do better than that. I did have PON, MM and PC on my tri ticket I missed the Bird only because I didn't pay better attention. With somny horses he just alipped digging deeper. I don't think I will ever look at any experts pick again.

Crazy Stardust: Thanks for the clarification. :)

Re Fire, because he finished so far back it will be hard to get much news about him. Here's what little I've been able to find: Cindy told reporters that the colt appeared to feel better Sunday. No decision has been made about whether or not they'll run in the Preakness. They are going to take a few days to evaluate the colt's condition.

For Big Red,

    Spot on your Analysis on poor Fire, I too watched it at least ten times, that had to be one of the roughest rides for a horse I have ever seen!, I thought Saez was way too aggressive with Fire after what he went through at the start, terrible ride by him.  I would not be surprised if he never rides Fire again, I hope not.  I honestly don't think Jones will put him in Preakness, Belmont?, Your guess is as good as mine, but at a mile and a half, I doubt it, let him heal completely, then go from there....It was a shame, too good of a horse to have all that happen to him....

TO: GREG J

I never doubted you! Nice going!

What a surprise...Great race but a surprise

To SittingBull, when you said the favorite would scratch, you were right, down to the day, when you said a longshot would win you were not joking!! You ment LONGSHOT! Next time can you be just a tad more specific? lol By the way, what do you "see" happening in the Preakness? Good job, hope you placed a bet on him!

Calvin is a heck of a jock...good for him!

What transpired w/the Derby should be a reminder to certain individuals on this blog that there isn't a "sure thing", my self included never gave MTB a chance,just like I'm sure almost everyone. What's disappointing is some people,who I won't name comes off with their Beyer numbers,long drawn out posts and rudeness as if they know everything. What a joke! I'll say it again never thought MTB would ever stand a chance,for that I was way off. As for some here that go out of their way almost everytime to bash and insult others',it should be a reality check,period!

Surprised so many people think Beyer scores are the same as the clocking. Of course you can have a Beyer score twenty better from one race to the next, it happens all of the time especially with young horses. A lot of horses start their careers running 41-50-55 only to "figure it out" and run a 78. Also, the more obscure the track, the less accurate Beyer scores become.

The final time of this Derby was legitimate. The Churchill track was yielding decent times early and slowed down all day as it has been doing for ever. It also has a nice spot near the rail but even armchair jocks know that. It doesn't help you come from 19 horses back to win by six.

Andy Beyer tossed the Synthetics not because they had no chance(IWR?) but because there is no way to predict form from one surface to the next.

It doesn't take a visionary to say MTB won't win many. Horses that come from that far back tend to not win many since they rely on racing luck and a great turn of foot. If he wins one or two other G1's, all questions should be answered.(Note: Giacomo did go on to win another Graded stakes while Birdstone also captured the Travers)

At some point people will stop paying lip service to the extra 1/8 of a mile. It is not the same as going from 6 to 7 or even 1 to 1 1/8(but close). that extra 1/8th is a mystery no one has the answer to until the bell rings. Not strong gallop outs, breeding, running well late, etc. It is a true separator and is what allows horses to come out of nowhere since the destination is also nowhere any of these horses have ever been.(Don't ask about the extra 1/4 at the Belmont) there is no logical evidence that FF, IWR, QR or Big Drama are capable of running sub-13 sec final eighths in a 1 1/4 race. And if they don't then apparently MTB will be passing them.

  I think the outcome of this race proves every horse entered should be given some time in the pre-race coverage. This is not the first time the horse no one thought had a chance won, and the commentators are left trying to explain it. Also, a camera should be placed at each group in the stands. We couldn't see the trainer and owner's excitement as the horse came thru the stretch. Something small, maybe, but part of the fun is to see over the years the trainers and owners in the stands. A very touching sentiment of them to place the roses over the great Barbaro's statue and give them out.  

I want to know what they shot that MTB horse up with before the race. I have a hunch that he's taking some new performance-enhancing drug that can't be detected. If not Andy Beyer should get out of the Beyer business. Because explain this to me. How does a horse like Freisan Fire run a mile and sixteenth in 1:43 2/5 and get a Beyer of 104. And in Mine That Bird's mile and sixteenth prep race before the Sunland Derby, MTB ran it in 1:43 4/5. Can someone please tell me how 2/5 of a second faster constitutes a 21 point swing. A wise old trainer once told me. A time is a time is a time. Period!  

Since this blog and this site in general is some kind of platform for Larry Jones worship, let's get honest for a minute. His preparation for Friesan Fire coming into the Derby was suspect at best and pure folly at worst. No races beyond a 1 1/16th? 7 week layoff on a young horse still building stregnth, stamina and experience? His approach should certainly be questioned by handicappers. There is no training regimen in human or equine sports that has a Seven week layoff with a stupid blowout inside a week to race time(at least not past sprint distance). If he ran that :57 while being in a normal form cycle and about 7-10 days pre-race then kudos and lets gets some money down. under these circumstances, it was a keyed up horse, with less than game time stamina using himself up.

That was the epitome of a bad training job.

TO:PAULA HIGGINS

Sorry to disagree,but Mark was on target and I'll tell you why. He  doesn't owe anyone,fans,media anything. You make reference to big time trainers with more tact/manners. What about BB's trainer? I think him,Jeff Mullins,etc should be taking a few charm lesson's also! In the end ,if the connections wanted to not race MTB in the Preakness I could live with that. Some so called fans,as well as probably a few on this blog wouldn't care if the horse was running on three legs! As for Baffert,he's a great trainer but with sometimes his lack of manners,I had a big smile Fri. in the Oaks when RA "handed him his head". lol

Congrats Greg J!

TO:EDWARD

Obviously you were viewing a different Derby! This blog isn't designed to be a "hero worship" for Larry Jones. Second,FF grabbed a quarter in the race. Were you paying attention? Jones is one of the best and I can tell you he could care less what you and others' say with your "Monday morning quarterbacking" opinions. It was a good plan giving FF a layoff,not a bad one. Are you going to say that you would have followed a different plan of action? Are you a trainer? Have you ever won an Oaks,or had in back to back years horses' to run second in the Derby?

Sorry for those who have read these before, but these were posts from very early Sunday morning:

Giacomo was close to unimaginable, but this...this was into the realm of fiction. Compared to Mine That Bird, Giacomo came into the 05' Derby with a much more realistic shot, even though both went off at 50-1. In Giacomo's last Derby prep he ran in a grade 1 in California and was only beaten 2 lengths, and had pushed Lion Heart when beaten a length in a grade 1 juvenile race. Additionally, while Giacomo didnt have a Beyer of 100, he had run figs of 97,95,94. I think alot of people focused on how Giacomo was 4th, rather than the fact he only lost by 2 lengths in the SA Derby, and dismissed the Cali contingent that year, with even the SA Derby winner, Buzzard's Bay, a relative longshot. Frankly, the Derby bettors just underestimated the Cali horses, because those that came out of the Santa Anita Derby ran 1-4-5 in Kentucky (Giacomo, Dont Get Mad, Buzzrds Bay..note that Dont Get Mad won the Derby Trial between the SA + Kent Derbys).

Unlike Giacomo, Mine that Bird deserved to be 50-1; actually, I thought he should have been higher. Perhaps one of the reasons he wasnt higher is because the memory of Giacomo is still somewhat recent? In my opinion, the two upsets shouldnt be compared, yet that's all the general public is talking about "it's like Giacomo, both 50-1..". No, this was unlike any other Derby upset, save maybe Donerail, and I wasnt around for that. This was an upset of true historic significance. Donerail in 1913 is the record Derby longshot at 91-1, Mine That Bird and Giacomo are next, and then Gallahadion in 1940 at 35-1. Yet, I truly believe Mine That Bird should be seen as the undisputed #2, and the greatest in the Derby's modern history. However, Cannonero might deserve some consideration as well having gone from a 3rd in a Venezuelan allowance to a Derby win. Unfortunately, for those that liked him going into the race, Cannonero was part of the mutual field, so his indiviual odds are not known.

I know this field fell apart, with what I believe to be the two best males of this crop not in the race (IWR,QR), but I still think few saw this coming. On top of everything, he won by the largest margin since Assault in 46'. Crazy, crazy, stuff.  

Sorry, zookeeper, you're right. Westerners should stick together. Am looking forward to the Tiznow foal as well. Tiz Pepper?  And I did want to ask for a bowl of fruit. Oh, well!

Greg J, congrats. Sending the money to New Bolton is a wonderful thing.

Da3Hoss, I'm with you. Never have been too enamored by most of the connections I've know of down the years. Also agree with the statement about Rags. It was all about the weights. Couldn't they just say that she was wonderful? Heck, the announcer at Churchill had trouble talking when Genuine Risk won. Bias,anyone!

I love this horse! And he has the winner of the first Derby I can remember, Chateaugay, in his pedigree! And MTB's roses for Barbaro's memory and to the fans. Class act!

Another repeat post:

Let's see, here are Mine That Bird's credentials going in-

Class: Ran 2nd and 4th in non-graded New Mexico stakes this year. No horse had ever won the Derby via Sunland or any other track in New Mexico(I believe). The horses that beat him in N.M. were allowance horses in SoCal, led by Kelly Leak (a horse I saw at Santa Anita's opening week) and Scorewithcarter. MTB was 12th and last in his 2 year old finale, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, his only grade 1 race prior to the Derby.

Speed: He had the lowest Beyer figures in the field. His career best was a 81. I wonder if Andy Beyer is going to review and revise his Sunland figs? Since Beyers have been published in 1991, only two horses had won the Derby without having run a figure of 100 or higher, but at least Sea Hero had a 99 and Giacomo a 98. We're talking 81 here. That put Mine That Bird about 10 lengths behind Giacomo!

Breeding: Birdstone is turning into a nice sire and all, but Mine That Bird had the Highest Dosage Index in the field at 5.40. The lowest Beyers and the highest Dosage!

Surface History: Mine That Bird had not won a race on dirt. His only victories had come on Woodbine's synthetic surface.

Trainer: Mine That Bird's trainer Bennie Woolley is a virtual unknown nationally, and was a Derby rookie. Woolley only had MTB since the beginning of this year.

Auction History: He was purchased for a paltry $9,500 as a yearling.

Sex: Mine That Bird is a gelding. Previously, only 8 geldings had won the Derby, but Funny Cide in 2003 had been the first to do it in almost 75 years, since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

Layoff: Mine That Bird entered the Derby off a 5 week layoff. Recently, Big Brown and Barbaro had won the Derby off just such a layoff, so it probably doesn't hold that much significance anymore. Still, prior to Barbaro, one had to go all the way back to Needles in 55' to find a horse that won the Derby off a 5 week layoff.

Works: Mine That Bird only worked once at Churchill, Monday April 27th. He worked 5 furlongs in 1:02, which ranked 19th of 26. So, no bullet work.

2 year old foundation: Here we have some positives, finally!  He started 6 times as a juvenile, and won 4.

2 year old back-class: Mine That Bird had won a graded stakes prior to the Derby. It was only a grade 3, and in Canada. However, the race, the Grey Stakes, is traditionally Canada's top open (not just Canadian breds) juvenile race, and had already produced one Kentucky Derby winner before, Sunny's Halo (won the Grey in 82', Derby in 83'). Yet, as mentioned, Mine That Bird had run last in his only US start, the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Jockey: Probably the best thing Mine That Bird had going for him was his jockey, Calvin Borel. Borel had already won a Derby just 2 years ago with the late-running Street Sense, and is known for his mastery of Churchill, particularly the rail. He also has had a history of winning big Churchill stakes at huge odds, such as the 06' Stephen Foster on Seek Gold, yet another late runner. Combine Borel's knowledge of Churchill, his ability to navigate the rail, and his past success in winning big stakes at the track with late-runners, and you have the perfect jockey for Mine That Bird.

I suppose it all balances out.......not! Or, at least it shouldn't have had if all this stuff we have been discussing the past 3 months means anything. I'm only half kidding, but this is just one crazy head-scratcher.

What makes it all the more absurd is that Mine That Bird won by 7. The race wasn't even close. However, the final time of 202 and 3 was fairly solid for what had been a slow, tiring track. The race did fall apart, given the fact no other horse was within 7 lengths of MTB at the finish, but horses like Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem did not run terribly. I fully expect Mine That Bird's Beyer to be in the 103-108 range.

Racing needed this Derby and so did most of the "little guys" throughout our nation!! Another great victory was the intensive testing for drugs and steroids!! The announcers said it was the first steroid free Derby in decades...sure hope that is true!!

Splitsof12---Please be careful when making accusations of drug violations against trainers; there are legal ramifications. As several of us have posted on this blog already, MTB probably had lots of rich O2 molecules circulating through his system at the time of the race due to his training regimen at a location with a high altitude. A physiology text book could be of help.

After all the criticizing of pro ride/synthetic tracks in general....it's like "right back at ya" after that tiring track/Derby fiasco---What a shame, it could've been a great race, what an inside bias! At least POTN ran outside all the way and still held 2nd--a gallant effort--mewonders if the "real" winners Sat were I Want Revenge/Quality Road for not having run such a gruelling race--both certainly would've lost to ole #8....Some can say they could see him "flying under the radar"....others say he's "FOR REAL"......I'd be shocked if he placed in any other Gr 1 race--ever!

I am suprised noone is defending Dunkirk. I heard Pletcher say that he also grabbed a quarter and came out of the race banged up. And good for Pletcher,at least he broke his streak of finishing last. And I just read that Desert Party came out with an ankle chip and will be having surgery, the good news is they plan to bring him back AND keep him racing as a 4 y/o. So they both have their excuses too. And General Quarters apparently came back choked and half blinded by mud...but did anyone else notice how clean Leparoux was? Just a couple more thoughts.

If Mine That Bird doesn't go--then we're all talkin about that great three way between Pioneer/Papa C/ Musket Man!!!!

I don't mind a Mine that Bird every so often.  I'm just upset I picked the wrong Birdstone.

I think the form, at least as I saw it (tossing Dunkirk and FF) held.  My girl friend took 8 quarters and put them on Giacomo to win.  

I just laughed.  Now I take her every Derby Day.

I'm getting closer.  Of course I did not have MTB but thanks to this blog I had pretty much the next 5 finishers.  It's been real fun.  135 runnings...We can certainly can say, can't wait for next year.  $557,006.40 that's what I'm talking about.

Was anyone at a track that allowed 10 cent superfecta's on the Derby?  The Cali tracks allow it for their own (Santa Anita, Hollywood) but not tracks outside of Cali.  

Yes, I'm still in shock -- and it's only NOW wo full days after the race that I'm even able to articulate some of my feelings without becoming totally unglued and agitated.

What's particularly disheartening to me, purely from a personal handicapping standpoint, is that: (a) I didn't like Dunkirk one iota; (b) I wasn't wildly enthuasiastic about Friesan Fire; (c) I used Pioneer of the Nile as one of my keys along with THREE others (plus Desert Party, Regal Ransom and Hold Me Back), but didn't use the winner.

Yes, I know it's a "Join the club," sort of comment, since nobody seems to have had this horse, right?

Still, I deserve a chance to vent: How could ANYONE have had that horse, except if were betting a lucky number? (As has been noted previously, Giacomo should have been no more than 10-1 by comparison -- in that he ran good in the Santa Anita Derby and had earned near 100 Beyer numbers. But this horse?) Yes, I'm happy for Calvin Borel, who is an honest and hard-working sort, but how could you legitimately have bet this horse, even if he went off at 100-1?

It's one thing to get beat, but to have used Pioneer of the Nile, as I did, a horse who was dismissed as a "throw out" by one of the country's top handcappers (Andrew Beyer), while also tossing Dunkirk entirely and only nominally using Friesan Fire in the lower ends of my exotics . . . is pretty painful. (I had made a win bet on Desert Party and a saver win bet on Regal Ransom, who I thought was about to make a winning move at the top of the stretch.) But to lose THIS way to THIS horse is, well, mind-numbing.

What I posted on this web site early Saturday morning was:

". . . Sill, POTN's two G-1s and two G-2s victories this year -- along with three-time Derby winning trainer and on-the-top-of-his-game jockey Garrett Gomez ain't chopped liver. The clincher, so far as I see it, is that he's already beaten the likely favorite, IWR, not once, but TWICE, as well as Papa Clem, too. So, let me try to wrap my head around this, alright? All of us are to believe that these two --that is, IWR and PC, to a lesser extent-- can improve by leaps and bounds on the dirt and remain viable win candidates today, while POTN is a "throw out," given his record and connections? Well, I just can't fathom that, I'm afraid.

"The key to this game is making good bets, not necessarily in betting good horses," -- and that's why, so far as I can see, the "toss out," if you pressed me on it, could arguably be Dunkirk.

"Yeah, I know this is a sacrilege to many and there is the likelihood -- not an entirely unreasonable one at that -- that this horse can blow the field away with such authority that he may  make Big Brown's performance a distant memory. Still, in a race like this, it seems that you ought to allow a horse like this to beat you, as he's the classic paradigm of a "good horse, but not a good bet," and I can't, for the life of me, envision getting on his bandwagon, despite his prodigious talent. Highly touted prodigies like this, it seems to me, are often all they're advertised and more and he may be the next Pegasus -- or at least Fusaichi Pegasus, who some have likened him to, in so much as FP did not start in his 2-year-old campaign until mid December. And yet . . . it seems to me that Pletcher has been playing beat-the-clock trying to get him ready for this race and he stands almost as good a chance of regressing as he does of moving forward. Yes, his move in the Florida Derby was breathtaking, but does anyone remember Arazi's run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile that palled in comparison? (Get it on YouTube; the announcer seems ready to faint). Moreover, does anyone recall his subsequent flop in the Kentucky Derby, the following spring? There is also the matter of the Flordia Derby emerging as a negative key race. (Has anyone heard much about Theregoesjojo lately?) And then there's the seemingly justifiable questions about whether DK, an athletic sort, is physially imposing enough to muscle through a 20-horse field, if that's necessary; that he was taxed too much in his hard-fought effort last time out to get the necessary graded money in order to race Saturday; that he's being managed by a a trainer who's justifiably desperate to end his embarrassing 0-21 skein in this race. It's all too much for me -- at what promises, for me at least, to be an underlaid price."

In the same post, I said this about Friesan Fire:

"I'm not big on bucking TWO trends simultaneously, those being the seven week layoff and no 1-1/8 mile prep, particularly with a trainer who seems to have already earned a "hardluck" label, by way of running second in consecutive editons with Hard Spun (thanks, in no small part, to the astoundingly fortunate trip Calvin Borel enjoyed with Street Sense; thank you again Calvin!) and with Eight Bells, who inexplicably died just past the finish line in such an inexplicable manner."

Yes, I know: it's a "woulda, coulda, shoulda" game and to carry on like this is a non-productive exercise, although I do feel slightly better having vented about it!

I guess when you have a result like this, it is worth remembering an apocryphal story I recall having once read about Art Rooney, the noted former owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who was a sportsman and gambler, too, as it illustrates the concept of "grace under pressure."

It was during the Great Depression, when money was tough for most everyone and Rooney, despite the grim times for most, supposedly had a "sure thing."

As a result, he supposedly had made a huge wager -- I think it was $10,000 to win -- on a particular thoroughbred that was entered at what I seem to recall was Sportsman's Park, in Chicago. The odds of the horse are of secondary importance to the story -- it may have been even-money or 10-1; I really forget -- but the horse won handily, but mmediately afterwards, the "inquiry" light went up on the infield toteboard and the number began flashing there ominously.

Sure enough, within a few short moments the sad verdict came in: The horse was being disqualified, taken down for interference!

People in Rooney's box were afraid to say a single word due to the gravity of what had occurred, but Rooney, it was said, simply turned to one of his companions and mildly said: "So, who do you like in the next race?"

Now, THAT'S grace under pressure!

PhilEboy

Wish Baffert would stop training POTN fast and know that he has a good kick and let him settle back in his races...if they are able to go in Preakness (I would skip if I were them) I think he'd be back in 6th of 7th now...but did he ever try in the Derby!--Outside all the way on a day when that meant more than usual--this is a good horse and I hope they treat him with the respect he deserves--I think he is the best horse of this crop....

Greg J.

Had you hit your superfecta which would have been mine "maybe" if I had all your horses up-dated that day, the payout was a half million dollars.  :)  I went with General Quarters because I liked the story about him.  I went with FF naturally and I always thought Pioneer of the Nile would win ever since I heard Gomez talking about him one day.  I was thinking Musket Man because he is from here and that popped into my head too.

Hindsight is very very different than before the race.  I am just happy it was YOU that hit that exacta and not some naysayer that isn't honest and wouldn't have said anything or donated any of the money.  Who-ever the idiot is that said that you never say that you hit a ticket if it isn't real is a pretty stupid person.  An honest person would want people to know that mistake was made.  It is the dis-honest ones that would not have mentioned it. ;-)

Mike how are ya? :)

Mike Relva

I hear ya.  

I am tired of the people that are always putting down the horses and thinking they are "the kings and queens of horsracing".  NOT!  Right on Mine That Bird. Yeah those naysayers can go eat their words till they drop.  :)

For Big Red

You're welcome.  I just want FF to be a safe happy horse on 4 legs.  And to Larry Jones and his training Edward, come on.  Don't blame Larry for Gods sake! FF got nailed three times coming out of the gate.  Gabe should have pulled him up I feel.  

When talking about Friesan Fire,one thing was obvious...his chances of winning the Derby were done in the 1st 15 seconds of the race,due to bad luck,a rough start,whatever. Saez was not helping with his confusing trek for position. And congrats to Mine That Bird,but if anybody really believes he is a Triple Crown candidate,I'd like to get my hands on some of that mind altering stuff you've got in you,lol. Mine That Bird had a perfect trip down the rail and a fearless ride from Borel. If you ran that race 10 times with 10 different jockeys,how many times do you think that horse would get through along the rail? My bet is once. Nobody else would have dared run that rail like that,and Borel owns that track.

  I'm all set to get on the Hull bandwagon for the Preakness. New blood is sorely needed after the KY Derby debacle with Quality Road, I Want Revenge,Old Fashioned etc...We need something soon.

Wow, in my earlier post on Rachel Alexandra's Oaks victory I mentioned seeing a young kid being picked up to pat Rachel Alexandra on the head in the paddock before the race. That must have been that little girl Rachel Mattson. The Oaks, as a story, just keeps getting better.

Before the Derby, I stood in the paddock almost directly across from Mine That Bird, but to be honest didnt pay him much attention. In any evevnt, he wasnt a physical standout, just a smallish, plain brown horse with a white star that reminded me of Birdstone. I also couldn't miss all the black cowboy hats around him, and the thought of New Mexico/West Texas came to mind.

I wasnt able to see much of the race from my infiled vantage, since unlike the Oaks and earlier in the card Saturday, a bunch of guys decided to pick up their girlfriends and put them atop their shoulders to watch the race. Having watched a big screen as the field were in the upper stretch with Pionner of the Nile leading, I turned toward the track to catch the first glimpse of the horses as they came into my direct sight. At this point, I was really rooting for Pioneer, having seen him in person for the Hollywood(Cachcall) Futurity and respecting his accomplishments this year. I took one quick peek back at the screen and saw some horse absolutely flying inside Pioneer on the rail. I saw the pink saddlecloth and the horse's plain brown coat and smallish size and thought the impossible, and then heard the announcer say "Mine" "Bird". I turned my head quickly towards the track, saw a horse blur by, and then a surprising distance away came Pioneer fighting with Musket Man and Papa Clem. Everyone around me was asking who had won, and I was almost screaming "Mine That Bird" "Pioneer 2nd" and then they asked, what numbers, I replied "8 and 16". It was just crazy. People were shocked, stunned.

I can understand how some are saying they are disappointed by the result. I have to admit, my first response was disappointment. Whenever a longshot wins a big race, especially one who I frankly thought had only the smallest of chances, it usually means the "good" horses ran poorly.

Then, I started thinking. It's not the brilliant performance, the Rachel Aelxandra by 20 performance I go to the races for, but THIS is history. THIS is a 50-1 shot (should have been longer and was 80-1+ in almost all of the other pools) winning America's greatest race, a plain brown gelding from New Mexico, with an absolutely unknown trainer, the most improbable of just about any Derby winner ever! And he was ridden by Calvin Borel, one of the most charismatic figures in our sport, in a typical Borel performance, coming from last up the rail! Then I watched the replay and saw just how brilliant the ride was, and just how explosive Mine That Bird had been.  I could see the final margin was about 7 lengths. One of the longest shots in Derby history winning by one of the largest margins in history! Had he been one of the favorites, I would have been celebrating this performance as one for the ages. Just because he was 50-1 and a horse I hadn't thought much of beforehand should not prevent me from acknowledging how well he ran.  

What finally put me over to feeling completely happy about the result was when Borel jogged Mine That Bird infront of the grandstand before entering the winners circle. I don't know how well it came across on t.v. but Churchill absolutely erupted; I'm sure alot of it was for Borel, who has sort of become a Churchill legend, but some of it was for this little underdog horse.  By this time, most of the infield onlookers had fled, and I was able to move right to the front of the gate that was just behind and a few yards upstretch from the winners circle. I was able to see the horse, and all the connections enter and leave the circle, as well as the trophy celebration.  

Was this a "fluke"? Well, it dependes on how one defines a fluke. In my opinion, bad horses do not win the Kentucky Derby. While in every Derby a number of the top horses are undone by poor trips, enough of the "good" horses run well that a truly bad horse has never won a Derby. Yes, not all Derby winners have been champions, but even the least respected Derby winners like Giacomo, Lil E. Tee, Gato Del Sol, Cannonero, and Dust Commander ran some solid races outside of their Derby wins, and were solid graded stakes horses.

Giacomo won the grade 3 San Diego at age 4, won about $750,000 outside of the Derby, and ran a strong 4th in the 2006 Breeders Cup Classic with a 109 Beyer. Lil E Tee came back from an injury in the Preakness and ran two strong races when winning the Razorback and running 2nd in the Oaklawn Cap at 4. Gato del Sol would go on to place in the Belmont as well as many other graded stakes on dirt and turf. Cannonero exited the Derby in 71' and then won the Preakness, and at 4 defeated 72' Derby winner Riva Ridge by 5 in the Stymie Handicap. I am less familiar with the post-Derby exploits of Dust Commander, but I know he had won the Blue Grass in his prior race.  

Mine That Bird ran a very strong race in the Derby. A mediocre horse just simply does not win the Kentucky Derby, and by 6.75 lengths. While the field was without the horses I believe to be the best of this crop, and many of the other top contenders had poor trips, Mine That Bird ran a solid time for that track, and his Beyer(if anyone cares) came up a 105. I'm not saying he is going to win the Preakness, and really do not want to start talking Triple Crown; I, too, need to see this horse run like that again before I am confident he can win another major race. However, at this point I wouldn't be surprised with any this horse did the rest of his career. If it is possible that Mine That Bird never turns in another performance like this, I guess one can label him a "fluke". However, MTB has proven he can run fast, and there is no reason to beleive that he can't do it again, at least sometime down the road. In looking at the Preakness field, ask yourself which horse has won a grade 1 race on dirt, around 2 turns, by more than 6 lengths, and with a Beyer of 105? No matter what one thought before, after the Derby Mine That Bird fits with the best of them.  

Curlin, the cowboy hat comment came from another blog on this site-not this particular blog. Sorry, that was confusing. Someone said Woolley wasn't dressed properly and I was simply saying he was fine and that coming from out west, he was pretty dressed up.

I think we need to give this horse his due. I am glad he is in the Preakness. If he repeats or runs a good race well, that will tell the story. I don't like it when people don't give a horse the credit it deserves for running a great race. This little guy deserves our respect. He won pure and simple. Yup he had a truly great jockey and a track bias and very possibly a training bias (high altitude advantage), but a win is a win is a win. They run their hearts out for us and I love them all. As for him being a second Seattle Slew probably not. Slew was really unique and special in the Pantheon of Horse Racing. But we can hope.

I would love to see these horses bred for stamina and not necessarily speed. I agree that synthetic tracks may not be the answer. Breeding them for stamina and soundness is. Getting rid of steroids, lasix etc. also needs to happen. Many years ago we weren't seeing these catastrophic failures and there was a reason. We should do it for the horses. They deserve it.

We need to value the larger big money trainers and owners as well as the smaller ones. They all have their place in horse racing and add to the richness of the sport. We need to value the people who come from overseas/Dubai as well. They put money in the sport and besides which, they are really thrilled to be a part of it. You can see what it means to them to be there and it makes me happy to see it. It's all good.

Baffert needs to regroup/replan! NOW...it's The Travers--just like The Col John Team planned last year--if you can't win the Derby/and you work hard throughout---some would skip the Preakness/go to Belmont--that's fine--if I have that fine horse, it's The Travers that I want! v Quality Road v I Want Revenge---and leave May 2nd to the historians.....and the bloody skarks.....

barb

I had no idea that Dunkirk was hurt.  I knew Edgar went easy on him and thank GOD it was Prado on that horse.  I truly believe had Edgar been on FF, that horse would have been stopped.  He really got hurt badly.  :-(  

Beyer needs to have not only a track variant in his analysis, but also a "lane variant". . . .

As to the trainer, I think he was quite classy in his immediate thanking of Calvin for his

"ba**s to the wall" ride, the owners for giving him the opportunity, and the previous Canadian trainer.  But I do think he got tired of the continual reference to "humble origins" - although I appreciate the media/world's wonderment, it does sound condescending and a little derogatory.  

And speaking of trainer changes, after his last place finish in the BCC with trainer #2, perhaps MTB is responding to trainer #3. . . (there's no accounting for chemistry - but that's not what I mean).  :)

Ya the horse got a "perfect trip down the rail". Duh that's the shortest way home. He was the ONLY horse making a run, everybody else was spinning their wheels.I thought Dunkirk ran a pretty decent race considering he fell down coming out of the gate and was running behind the first wave getting way to much mud in his face. I bet he coughed up mud for a half an hour when he was cooling out.

Yeah...what a race! I had Musket Man across the board...won a little there..and Had Pieoneer..won a tad there. Soon as I heard the fav was out..this feeling came and stayed all day..a long shot's gonna win this race. So..right before time I decide to bet $1 on the field of 50-1s. EXCEPT Mine That Bird..I couldn't figure any way Calvin could pull off 2 big wins..especially this one on that little horse. Goes to show you..jockeys and horses with hearts..run with the best of them!Loved losing to Cal and that sweet little horse that gave me one of the greatest moments in my life!!

Edward:

Not sure what your opinion of Eight Belles was last yr, but it was the same guy that trained her and FF. And oh by the way, Eight Belles had not run over a 1 1/16th either. Not sure if Jones thought or thinks he learned something from the yr before that(Hard Spun), as his horse was wore out at the end, but kinda feel like that was the evolution of his "stupid" training methodology. Don't think I could knock it. I believe he thought he had the winner and perhaps looked ahead a tad too much thinking of having a fresh horse for ALL 3 of the races.

A few more points:

1) I don't see how some are saying that Mine That Bird was just "lucky". Yes, some luck came into play, and others in the field had poor "luck", but a horse doesn't win the Derby by 7 with JUST luck. Getting the rail trip on the backstretch was fortunate, and then finding the rail again in the stretch after pulling out on the 2nd turn was fortunate. Yet, it took a jockey to make these calls, and take advantage of how the race unfolded. Borel rode a smart and courageous race, and his performance should be seen as more than just luck. Additionally, at every point in the race Borel had to make a strategic move, the horse was there underneath him. Mine That Bird was absolutely flying around the turn, and had Borel kept him outside as it seems he was trying to do initially, he still would have won. Mine That Bird was full of run, and won as much the best(on the day). Borel made the winning decisions other jockeys didnt, and Mine That Bird allowed him to do so.

2) There might have been a slight rail bias, but it wasn't enough to decide the Derby. Horses were able to win on the day not being down on the rail, and plenty of horses that raced on the rail did not win. Was the Humana Distaff won by a horse coming from last on the rail, or a horse that was on the rail in the stretch?  How did the other Derby horses who were near the rail do? Mine That Bird wasnt the only horse in the Derby to race on the inside. If there was such a bias, why didn't they all just take the supposed conveyor-belt around too? At one time or another, the following horses were on the inside for a good amount of time:  Hold Me Back, Advice, West Side Bernie, Atomic Rain, Mr Hot Stuff, Join in the Dance, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and Musket Man.  Why didn't these horses run as well as Mine That Bird? And Mine That Bird wasn't on the rail the entire trip. He came flying off the 2nd turn with Borel having taken him off the rail, before seeing traffic infront and the rail through the stretch open, so he ducked back inside like Shoe did on Ferdinand in 86'.

3) The horse, trainer, and even Borel to an extent mike Mine That Bird a story of David vs. Goliath, or a win for the "common man", or for the underdog.

However, do not use those descriptions for Mine That Bird's owners. Even if one ignores the Alaska bribe stories, these are not representatives of the "common man". Mark Allen and Leonard Blach are very wealthy individuals, and both own large horse farms. It just so happens they are quarter horse farms, so many in the thoroughbred world have not heard of them. In the quarter horse world, New Mexico is the capitol of the sport. They only thing that makes these owners seem common is that they are from New Mexico and wear cowboy hats. These are no hicks, no Davids, no "common" men.

4) Not sure what to make of the also-rans. Alot of them had trouble and came out of the race banged up. Sometimes, I think too much is made of trouble, but for some horses it definitely affected their performance.  I thought Pioneer was brave; he was up closer than most expected, made what appeared to be a winning move on the turn, and fought on to hold 2nd. Musket Man and Papa Clem were right with Pioneer at the wire as well. Yet, all 3 were beaten 7 lengths by a 50-1 shot! Mine That bird certainly didnt run like a 50-1 shot, but this wasn't a Secretariat performance, or even a Barbaro, Monarchos or Unbridled performance. Mine That Bird ran a solid race, but it was rather average as far as Derbys go.

I am going to have trouble endorsing the also-rans from the Derby unless they were significantly compromised. I suppose I am willing to give Pioneer some slack for being close to a pace that burned up the other speed, especially if he is taken further back in his next race. However, I still have questions whether Pioneer is good enough to win one of the "biggies". The same is true for Papa Clem and Musket Man.

The Derby confirmed my opinion that Quality Road and I Want Revenge are a tier above these other horses. However, I Want Revenge is going to be out for a while, and Quality Road still needs to get over his quarter crack issues. That leaves Rachel Alexandra, who I really believe can win the Preakness without QR and IWR. However, I respect the connections for being conservative.

I can remember no other crop that had so few quality speed horses. For that reason, horses that have demonstrated speed and any ability to carry it at all become instant contenders. Thus, I think Big Drama and, to a lesser extent, Mr Fantasy can really impact a race such as the Preakness.

At this point, I think the quality of those remaining in this crop has become somewhat questionable. With so many being injured before and then during the Derby, the overall quality is bound to suffer. Additionally, the horses that did have relatively clean trips in the Derby really didn't impress, outside of Mine That Bird. I really think things are open to some "new guns" or for some real late developers, like Tiznow in 2000.

5) Congrats to Einstein and Helen Pitts-Blasi. He's a real special horse, and now has 5 grade 1 wins to his name. It was a pleasure to see him win the Woodford Reserve in person.

TO:CRAZY STARDUST

Thanks! How are you? Do you recall a few months back we were discussing someone that posts often that I told you they think and act as if they "wrote the book". You told me they represented themselves claiming this and that? Do you remember?

It boggles the mind that anyone could be anything but thrilled with the result of the Kentucky Derby. Mine that Bird & Calvin Boral were equally magnificant. That horse was flying! But, not only that, he is so cool headed that he responded instantly to Calvin's cues. He never hesitated or faltered. His turn of foot is breathtaking. Those of you that are mad because you lost some money, I ask you this question...If you watched your pick come flying up the rail as we saw Mine that Bird run, you would be here now posting about what a magnificent horse your pick is. No matter how great a jockey does, a horse cannot run any faster than he or she is capable of. Mine that Bird was running twice as fast as all the other horses. The aerial view speaks for itself. Calvin kept him fresh & out of the frey thruout most of the race & then they exploded.  Calvin could have taken him wide & still won the race, he was moving that fast. He didn't just get there at the wire. He won easily going away, by more than 6 lengths. What part of this says he didn't belong in the race? Mine That Bird wasn't my pick to win. But, one would have to be deaf, dumb & blind to not appreciate that we were priviliged to have witnessed probably the best stretch run of any Derby. It's also a perfect example of why, in my opinion, gambling would take away from the enjoyment of watching a great race. When my pick doesn't win, but I am fortunate to witness a great racing moment, I can fully appreciate it without money detracting from it. God knows I work way too hard to ever think about gambling any of it away. After all, isn't money one uses for gambling "throw away" money?  

Another major factor here is that Mine That Bird is very young. He has not yet had his third birthday. Many of the other horses in this 3 yr. old crop are 5 months older than him. That's huge when a horse doesn't reach the equivalant of a human adolescent until they are about 4yrs. old. I think he is now coming into his own & becoming the horse he was born to be.

I remember thinking, as I watched Calvin screaming & yelling after he had just won the race, how remarkably Mine That Bird was handling it all. I have owned many horses in my life & I can't think of one that would have handled all that commotion, at any age. For a horse, not yet 3 yrs. old to tolerate & handle even a fraction of that is a rare & remarkable horse. Those of you who own horses... how many of you would take a 2 going on 3 yr. old horse into a loud parade while you sat on his back, yelling on top of your lungs & not expect to be introduced to the very hard ground in a hurry as you watch your horse heading back to the barn? This horse has tremendous talent,how else was he able to fly by 18 other running horses? But he also won with his great mind. Not many horses would have responded to Calvin's cues as confidently as he did, without an instant of hesitation. Again I imagine my own horses, years older than him, in that position. I would have been told in no uncertain terms that if I wanted to squeeze thru a small hole skimming along the rail as we were going 40 miles an hour, I would be doing it by myself, as they tossed me off & I was airborne. Several of my horses came to me, from the track, as they retired by racing. I love each & every one of them. But, when I witness something great, I know when it is not the norm & can appreciate it all that much more.

Colette

MTB...reminds me of 1992 and the second place finisher Casual Lies (ahead or Arazi mind you). Shelly Rilley bought this horse for $7,500 dollars to pinhook him but could not sell him in Pomona so she takes him to her 7 horse barn at the Pleasonton Fairgrounds in Northern California.  She later turns down 2.7 million dollars for "Stanley" because as she puts it "It would be like selling a dream."  Stanley went on to finish 3rd in the Preakness and 5th in the Belmont with a life time of about $800,000.  You can't make this stuff up!

Does anyone else think something was really fishy about the 135 Kentucky Derby ? A 1 for 32 trainer at Sunland Park, hobbling around on crutches, wins it! Your kidding me. One of his owners, is already being tied to some kind of scandal. Bennie Woolley will you please take off those glasses and show us your eyes.  

Alright, after Mine That Bird won the race, most of use were justifiably thunderstruck, myself included. The typical reaction on  was, "How the heck did THIS horse manage to win?" (Although most of us said it in a bit more colorful fashion, I guess!) Some of us have raised the memory of Giacomo, but as has been noted previously, his victory seem hardly implausible by omparison. Donerail? Well, his pre-Derby form remains a mystery to me in that he won the damn race 96 years ago, but I'd imagine it was pretty lousy, because he paid $184.90 to win. (However, with a jockey with a silly sounding name like Roscoe Goose, you'd think there would have been more people who would have bet on this horse).

Well, regardless of how unlikely it seems, sometimes odd things occur in horse-racing and as most of us know, for better or for worse, the result stands.

What many of us prefer to believe, however, is that this horse somehow stepped through an alternative universe and magically happened to beat the rest of the field by nearly seven lenghths through sleight of hand.

Well, get over it everyone -- I saw what you saw and not only did he win, but he trounced the field quite handily!

It is reassuring to think that this was some sort of of aurora borealis, a magician's trick that can't possibly repeat itself.

However, that's not always sound reasoning, for the fact is that the unlikely occurred and while it's easy to make an excuse or exuses for some of those who ran, it gets less and less easy when one provides an alibi to the entire crowd of 18 other thoroughbreds, while denigrating the horse's performance. Did the track's surface that day help this horse? Probably. Did the pace conditions help this horse? Probably. Was the jockey's decision to come up the rail instrumental in his win? Probably.

But the important thing is to remember that this HORSE -- not his jockey, not his trainer, not his owner, not the racetrack's condition -- crossed the wire first, right?

I bring this up only because everyone seems so convinced that this is race result was an anomoly, they are discounting the possibility that the "light bulb when off in this horse's head," and that this horse may have more talent than he previously showed.

When you provide the only rationale for how this horse did what he did that makes sense -- that he has a bit more talent than some might have thought -- it becomes easier to swallow, I think. Yeah, this horse ran his eyeballs out, but nobody was preventing one of the other eighteen horses from running their eyeballs out, too.

Let's ake a trip down memory lane and recall Charismatic's 1999 Derby win, when he won by a scant neck over Cat Thief and paid $64.60), there was a similar hue and cry, as Charasmatic had run in a claiming race in  February of the same year, for goodness sakes! It simply infuriated a great many insiders to no end. How could THAT horse win? He was too cheap! Those were the prevailaing comments on egeryone's lips.

Charismatic may have been thought to an undeserving winner, too, although he came back to win the Preakness and failed to win the Triple Crown, by finishing third in the The Belmont Stakes, despite suffering a double fracture to his leg that ended his career.

And even if he was claimer, he still wound up being awarded the Elcipse Award for Horse of the Year and top 3-year-old honors, too.

I bring this up because although you can still count me among the non-beleivers with regards to this year's Derby winner, I recognize that it wouldn't be at all impossible for him to win the Preakenss, too, even if nobody wants to say that aloud.

It's not likely, I suppose, but heck, that's what people would have said about a horse like winning the Derby, right? And then again, something like seven of the past 13 Kentucky Derby winners went on to win the Preakness, so he'd seem to have a pretty good shot, even if it's impolitic to suggest this.

Phileboy

Edward,

You are entitled to your opinion. That's what a blog is for. Don't pay much attention to little mikie relva, he's here to put people down. If you believe the training job by larry Jones stunk that's your opinion and nothing wrong with that. crazy stardust doesn't make much sense either. says he/she is tired of people putting down horse, trainers, etc. but thinks it's ok to agree with mikie who puts you down for your opinion? keep your opinions coming, you are entitled to that.

Hey, am I hearing things or did they do a "voice over" of the Derby race call? Good grief if they did, TD's call wasn't pretty but a "PC Pretyy" voice over??? Hope I'm wrong...

Citronnade, we remeber you, girlfriend.

His PP's said he was "Eligible to improve" on his 3rd start of the year.LOL

Personally, I'm wondering if the two Sunland races were while he was acclimating to the higher elevations, 'cause he's right up there (I think it's in Sunland Derby,) :22/change, :47 for the half and in both races he's game at the finish, but tired...

Gunbow, Amen. The best horse with the best ride on the First Saturday in May wins the race...that's the ONLY day that counts to be the Kentucky Derby winner, the rest is sour grapes and woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Wanda, you are SO dead on...it wasn't like MTB didn't thread through horses already on the rail, and everbody had a chance to be on the rail AND have Calvin Bo-Rail ride their hore!...Calvin's one with the "B's" to trust himself & the horse on that rail, it's perspective, most see a crack, Calvin sees an eight lane super highway...

GQ's trainer said he blew a wad of mud out his nose that could make a mud-pie and one eye was swollen shut with mud...

Kat, Beyer is already prejudiced toward this horse's effort...Smarty ran almost 2 seconds slower in the mud and got a 107, Silver Charm, on a fast track, ran only 1/5 faster (2:02 2/5) and gets a 115...

That was kind of a nasty innuendo about his trainer & chemistry, ya think?

da3hoss---Why can't people believe that the MTB group simply put together a winning effort? I like and agree with everything in your May 5, 10:19 A.M. post.

What a Derby!  Western Horses Rule!  And thank god it was won by the little guys! I am so sick and tired of seeing all the big trainers win everything.  Congrats to the MTB team, I didn't see that one coming, I wanted to see Papa Clem win and I think the slop was not to his liking, but he ran a honorable race.  Sorry to see Larry Jones' Horse have a bad trip from the start, FF never had a chance after all the bumping at the start. Borel rode that horse masterfully and boy did he have some racing luck over the weekend!

Thank God the derby wasn't marred by another breakdown and everyone appeared to come out with nothing more then some superficial stuff and I am looking forward to seeing what MTB is made of and what he will do in the Preakness.

PS.  Will someone who is not an idiot buy Santa anita so we can have a better managed track for the future of ca horseracing, or what's left of it?

TO FRIESAN FIRE FANS: He is not on the list of Preakness possibles this morning. This list will be fluid for at least a week, but I'm glad Fire is not being considered at this time. I think at least two-thirds of the field had some trouble in the race, and the DRF chart reads like a demolition derby. However, Fire had the worst trip of all, so I'll be happy if he doesn't go in the Preakness.

I want to make a few points.  Exterminator was nothing but a work horse who was entered in the Derby as an afterthought.  The Derby was the beginning of an incredible career for him.  The next year, Sir Barton came into the Derby as a maiden.  He went on to win the Triple Crown and become a champion.  I'm not saying that Mine That Bird is in the same class as Exterminator or Sir Barton, but if history does someday show him to be one of the great ones in the sport he wouldn't be the first to launch to greatness in the Derby.

TO EDWARD: As a natural skeptic myself, I'm pleased to see others who don't take happy reassurances at face value.

After a lifetime of association with the sport, I pulled away from it for most of this decade due to all the catastrophic breakdowns. So I didn't know anything about Larry Jones until this year when, against my better judgement, I allowed myself to become emotionally attached to Friesan Fire.

From that perspective, I think you're right. There does seem to be a lot of pressure (not just here, but throughout the online racing media and forums), to consider Jones as something of a tragic hero.

I can't criticize him as a trainer, because I'm too remote and have precious little information from which to draw an honest opinion. It's true that, on the surface, his methods appear unorthodox, but that doesn't make them bad. I admire the fact that he doesn't medicate his horses. His barn was one of only two with Kentucky Derby contenders who opened their vet records to the New York Times. That's extremely admirable, in my opinion.

As for how he prepared Fire for the Derby, I have to admit scratching my head about a lot of it. But, fairness is a component of honesty. The colt did have a horrendous trip in the Derby, with a horrible ride by Saez only compounding the bad start. Jones will decide whether or not to put Saez back on Fire the next time the colt runs. Jones will go up a notch in my estimation if he doesn't put Saez on the colt again.

Did someone mention a voice-over TD's call of the derby.?  That would be a major improvement a Dave Johnson voice-over would be great.  Durkin is beyond aweful. I'm watching and I see this horse coming up the rail really fast and I'm waiting for Durkin to say who it is and.....and......and..I'm waiting.  That was really bad.

FYI,

  Just read that I Want Revenge's injury could end his career if he doesn't respond well to therapy.

I sure hope not, way too many injuries so far this year.  Foster Northrop said Tuesday that swelling in the horse's right front ankle progressed over the weekend, and an ultrasound showed additional ligament damage.  Northrop says the prospects of the 3-year-old colt running again depend on how he responds to therapy over the next few months. While the injury is career-threatening, it is not life-threatening, Northrop says.

    Just read a funny story on Mine that Bird's trainer Bennie Woolley Jr., and Mark Allen, one of Mine That Bird's co-owners owners, "We were in a bar and I started a fight and he helped me out," Allen said.

Who won?

"We wound up on top," Allen said. "But it took us a while."...

    I really don't care about Mark Allen's trouble's up in Alaska.  I think it is great for the sport, That this little Horse  won the Derby.  Horse Racing needs a Human feel good story, and this could be it, already is, BUT if he goes on to win the Triple Crown, I cannot even Imagine, but I am hoping he pulls it off...

My thoughts after the Derby are simple: 1. MTB definitely deserved to win 2. The rest of the field got stuck in quicksand 3. Rachel Alexandra's connections had better start looking for races against the boys because soon there will be no competition that wants to run in a race with her. No one wants to run against her knowing they will run second!  She will put the boys to shame & it looks like she will be Horse of the Year.  She hasn't been even hit with the whip or even been shown it! I think it is very weak for her connections to say the triple crown is only for stallions, since MTB is a gelding, what does that do for him? Sounds like a excuse rather than the logical answer.  You all can forget about Zenyatta this year, its all RA!!!!!!

    Larry Jones is a CLASS ACT...

Before sending out Friesan Fire in Saturday’s Derby, Jones led a prayer circle — at least the second of the day at the folksy trainer’s barn.

    After the death of filly Eight Belles at last year’s Derby, he wasn’t praying for the colt to return to the barn a winner. He was praying for him simply to return.

    “Beating one horse was better than running second and what happened last year,” Jones said.

Class Act....

Wow, what a finish!!  All I can say is that it must have been one heck of a calvery charge to have so many injured and cut up.  Congrats to all the connections, what a gutsy little horse he is.  Hope to see him succeed at Old Hilltop.

Regarding the announcers...Tom Durkin called the race on NBC but the CD announcer is Mark...Johnson? HRTV showed the race with his call so I have heard both and agree that Durkin was the worst of the two(for the Oaks also). I normally LOVE Durkin and am still missing him at the BC but he was definently "off" this weekend. He called her Rachel Alexander for most of the race. But I do love the emotion you can feel through his voice...all week leading up to the Derby I heard his anguish when Birdstone won the Belmont(!) in the opening to HRTV's Pursuit of the Crown (missed that as an omen though).

Wow, what a finish!!  All I can say is that it must have been one heck of a calvery charge to have so many injured and cut up.  Congrats to all the connections, what a gutsy little horse he is.  Hope to see him succeed at Old Hilltop.

 Thank you, Greg J for your  comments. What you wrote was so touching. I thought Larry and Cindy Jones were special just based on interviews and articles as well as comments from others in racing. I didn't know they did that before the race. I think this year their talented horse just coming back safe was their 'win'. I wish them the most success possible.    

Wanda---Are you out there? What is the altitude/elevation where you trained in Canada? How was it known (even just in talking to other horse people) to affect a horse's ability at lower elevations?

GREG J.,

Way to go buddy! Never doubted you for one second and I think YOU are a class act. Forget about all of these haters. Our boy got banged up pretty good didn't he. I knew there was something wrong with him when he started going backwards.

 Imagine his injury of grabing a quarter being like ripping off part of your finger or toenail and rubbing it with wet sandpaper for about two minutes. Pretty bad thought isn't it?

Other than what happened to Fire I thought it was an amazing race. Great for Calvin and this little gelding.

Once again, Way to go buddy!!!

FOR BIG RED,

Once again I think your comments are spot on. You have very classy blogs. Thanks for that. Fire got banged up pretty good didn't he. I have no doubt that Larry Jones will do right by him and let him heal up well before he races again. Once again thank you for YOUR class. You and Greg J. are both class acts.

Mine That Bird is on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Good publicity for racing.

I stand by what I said JShandler. I tossed FF because I thought the 7 week choice and few sprint preps. was amateurish and irresponsible considering the talent level of the colt. If a trainer like Helen Pitts would have done it, she'd be cleaning out the stall where the horse used to be(why people have taken horses from Ms. pitts-blasi, I'll never figure out. Ask Einstein)). FF lost...no...FFdidn't have a chance to win because of a bad trip. (Nice post, were they picking last?) but its very questionable whether he could have run a better time than 2:02.66 on a FAST TRACK given his conditioning up to the race. Call me the next time a horse wins a graded, 1 1/4 race after a seven week layoff with no career races past 1 1/16; or better yet, have your great grandson call my great granddaughter-who knows, maybe they'll hit it off.

Karen in Texas: Elevations aside I just think the best horse won that day. I live about 60 miles from the mountains but I remember last year we all had quite a talk about flying horses from a lower to a higher elevation etc. Do you remember that?

Forgo: No, it wouldn't be like you winning an Olympic Marathon, unless you won Marathoner of the Year in Canada the year before the Olympics. In which case, you would be on the Olympic team(even if Canada doesn't win many medals) just like the Canadian Juvenile of Year(Sovereign Award?) was on the "derby" team.

Impossible to pick this horse, yes, but respect the huge race he ran. Toss the 105 Beyer score. This was a bigger run than that. Look at the times in the races(All Stakes)leading up to this race. Very good sprint horses ran slow last 1/4's and slow races overall because of the track. There is not a race scenario where any other horse in this race could beat 2:02.66 under these same conditions. Zero. (Not implying that MTB would run this race under a Fast Track but it's the same as running like 2:00.66 with a fast track. look up how many derby's that wins.

Yeah... I am thrilled that I took months to study hundreds of races and then some mutt freaked in the mud and beat a real champion like POTN.  It stinks and I could care less.  The horse will not win another race all year.  Welcome to the Giacamo club.  Lets move on.

Edward... I agree with you.  Race horses race.  7 weeks off? Give me a break.

Wanda---Yes, the best horse won, but higher hemoglobin/RBC levels are achieved at higher elevations as the body adjusts to lower oxygen levels in the air. I thought maybe you had personal experience with that sort of thing. No, I don't think I was on the blog during those discussions last year. Thanks!

Mike Relva

HI Boy I sure do remember.  How can one forget things like that?  Yuppers, some people are just not worth the time of day. :)  I am happy for Greg J.  AND Mine That Bird in his pink silks and #8. :)

Karen in Texas: I understand (sort of) what you are saying. My only experience going cross country was Calgary to Phoenix by van and flying horses from Manitoba to Alberta. Those horses that went to Phoenix didn't run for at least two weeks, so I don't think that would apply. The ones who went by plane ran well but the elevation was not much different. Regardless that horse is one tough cookie to haul all that way and run the way he did.

Horswld

IMO Gabe should have stopped FF.  He was in way too much pain to run.  Bad call on Gabe as far as I am concerned.  Oh well, he is young.  

Wanda

That makes a lot of sense.  I am an athlete and it makes a HUGE difference when you are in certain parts of the world.  Sea level is the best but I totally agree that the altitude is a huge factor here.  :)  One minute can seem like a lifetime when you're tired.  

For Big Red.  I agree.  I think that FF needs a better jockey.  :)

It's unbelievable to me that there are some on here questioning if MTB was "under the influence"!  Does anyone actually believe a trainer would use a prohibited substance in a race like that knowing the track is heavily testing? That would be beyond stupid!  As far as this being the first derby without steroids-does anyone here actually KNOW which horses of the past have run on them or do we just assume they all did since they were legal..?  This kind of negativity just helps keeps racing down and is not in any way beneficial!  He ran the best race on the day - period!  Too bad he was overlooked but it once again proves that anything can happen in horse racing and those who post of "knowing" who the winner will be hopefully learned something that day.  I thought the media did not treat the connections with proper respect and I understand why they may not have been real gracious at times although I did not like it. Too bad MTB is still being treated second rate just because most bettors didn't pick him. He didn't even appear very tired after the race to me so that says a lot in my opinion.

DaHoss - Perhaps you read over the last comment. . . the point of the "chemistry" comment was to give trainer #2 an "out" - given I know nothing of MTB's time there, other than his showing in the BCC.  The entire point was pure conjecture and not presented otherwise.  I do have personal experience with trainers and horse incompatibilities.

Internet communication does not always lend itself to intent.  So sorry for the misunderstanding.

After posting last night I watched the Derby from the blimp view a few more times. It was simply a remarkable ride by Borel and a brilliant explosion by Mine That Bird. This horse was absolutely flying! I wonder what his final 3 and 4 furlong times were? I've seen his final quarter estimated between 23 and 1 and 24, and anything in that range would represent one of the fastest final quarters in history.

What is most amazing is definitely Borel steering that little gelding back onto the rail at around the eighth pole, through the smallest of holes between the rail and Join in the Dance. Borel never hesitated and niether did the horse. I suppose I don't know horses well enough, but I would think that not all horses would have done that.

As some have mentioned, immediately after the race Mine That Bird was absolutely unflappable. I had an excellent view of him from the infield being jogged back infront of the grandstand, as Borel paraded him down the stretch the wrong way to the cheers of thousands, and then into the winners circle. This plain little gelding had his ears pricked the whole time, and never once seemed agitated. The horse is so homely, but he just seems so calm and cool. If any horse ever looked like an underdog, he's it. Plus, he's a gelding.

Here are some of my observations of Larry Jones and Friesan Fire in the paddock before the Derby. As Jones does with many of his horses, he, and not his help, walked Friesan Fire around the paddock after making the walk from the backside. Then, after saddling Friesan Fire, Jones spent the last 5-10 minutes before riders' up simply patting Friesan Fire. Jones had positioned Firesan Fire so his head was faced towards the back of his stall and his hind end outwards. Jones was at the back of the stall with Friesan Fire the entire time, patting his head repeatedly. You can hear it in his words and see it in his actions; he loves his horses. I think a key reason he is retiring is that it has become too painful for him to see his horses injured, or worse, killed.

Once Jones had committed to the Louisiana route, he really had no choice other than the 7 week gap. And why would Jones take Friesan Fire from the Fair Grounds if he knew his horse liked the track? I know people can say that he should have been thinking only about the Kentucky Derby, and planned backwards from that. However, as we've seen so often, there is absolutely no guarantee that a horse will ever make it to the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby. There is no way a trainer can take it for granted. This is why about a month ago I became somewhat upset with how some characterized races such the Lane's End, Flordia Derby, SA Derby, Wood, Blue Grass, Ark Derby, etc  as just "prep" races. Given how fragile these horses can be, few trainers are going to throw away good chances to win such races just because an even bigger race is approaching. Sometimes you have to strike when the iron is hot.

So, Larry Jones had a horse in Friesan Fire that was running well down at the Fairgrounds, and he kept the horse there. Friesan Fire responded well be sweeping the 3 graded stakes races, including the rich grade 2 Louisiana Derby. After that, Jones had a tough decision. If he wanted one more "prep", it would have either required him bringing FF back in 3 weeks, and then giving him 4 weeks off between that final prep and the Derby, or giving FF a month off immediately after the La Derby, leaving just 3 weeks between the final prep and the Derby.

Either way, Jones would have been open for criticism for running FF too often, something some did over his handling over Eight Belles. To an extent, I think the Eight Belles injury handcuffed him, and he probably felt better to err on the side of caution, in this case giving the horse more time between races, rather than risk bringing a tired or weakened horse to Churchill. Saying this, I do not mean to infer that all Jones was thinking about was covering his back. Rather, I think Jones, as typical, was thinking about the safety of his horse, and truly believed the break would be best for FF. Additionally,the idea of a "fresh" horse probably made sense to him from a handicapping angle. Given the alternative choices, I have no problem with how Jones handled FF.

For everyone who had negative comments about the winner, go to your local 7-11 and pick up this weeks Sports Illustrated. Tell me that ain't good for racing!

My Juliet & Horswld,

     Thank You, Larry & Cindy are all CLASS, The Sport needs more like them!...

Some updates on Fire and Old Fashioned:

    Got this from Rockport Harbor, Old Fashioned is doing well recovering from his surgery.  Also doing well are Honest Man and Song of Solomon (who are just being given time for their injuries).

From Rick Porter on Fire:

    Everything is OK. It was just one of those days that we have not experienced for several years. Friesan Fire grapped a quarter, probably breaking poorly out of the gate. He was bleeding quite a bit but will be fine and Larry said he will probably only miss a couple days of going to the track. There is always a possibility that something more serious will surface today but so far things look very minor.

Edward & Dray,

    So now you know more then Larry Jones?, Please, The seven weeks had nothing to do with the Derby, Fire grabbed a quarter and got banged up on every front, Question, Wasn't Fire the Post time Favorite?, So that means, you two know more then the thousands of people that bet on him to win?, Give me a break....Dunkirk got beat up also, You don't see me question the trainer, Do you????

Dray,

    Then you have the audicity to call "Mine that Bird" a mutt????, This coming from a guy that had at LEAST 10 different picks in this Derby??, lol...."Mine that Bird" just won the Derby in RECORD, Dominating Fashion, and you call him a mutt?  Saying he Beat a champion like POTN, Well, I don't know, but when you come in second to a horse, Who was the champion in the Derby?, I believe the horse that came in First...Now, Let's say for a second, Bird wins the Preakness, on a perfect track, Then what excuse are you going to use, "Mine that Bird" freaked on a fast, dry track, He got lucky again?, Can't you just give credit where credit is due?

Statement from Dr. Larry Bramlage: Prognosis on I Want Revenge

May 6, 2009 ‐ Louisville, KY –

“The swelling below I Want Revenge's right front fetlock

joint progressed from Saturday morning through the weekend. It became evident that

this was the location of the primary injury. The ultrasound exam that was performed on

May 3 showed changes in the middle distal sesamoidean ligaments (also known as

oblique sesamodean ligaments), which are the ligaments below and behind the fetlock

joint that support the fetlock during high speed exercise. An MRI conducted at Rood

and Riddle Equine Hospital on May 4th confirmed the injury to the middle distal

sesamoidean ligaments. At this point, the injury is moderate in severity, and it is too

early to predict a long term prognosis or the effect on I Want Revenge's career. The

single biggest determining factor on the long term prognosis will be determined by the

horse's response to therapy and how he progresses. This will be reassessed monthly

and I will be consulting with Dr. Northrop, the trainer and owners to determine the

appropriate course of therapy. The injury would have been much more severe if not for

the decision to scratch the horse from the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Jeff Mullins and the

owners should be commended for putting the health and welfare of the horse first."

Hope He Heals safe and sound...

A few more thought,

From Pletcher:

    On Mine that Bird, "If you look at the winner's form, it's not that bad," Pletcher said. "He was one of the best if not the best 2-year-old in Canada."

    Pletcher expressed satisfaction with the performance of Join in the Dance, who set the pace for a mile, beginning with an opening quarter in 22.98 seconds, and held for seventh.

   Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem (fourth) ran even more remarkable races considering they were with the pace the entire way, and the winner came flying from last as if shot out of a cannon.

    "When you look at the times of the races like the Humana Distaff, and fillies of that caliber go in 1:23, you know it's a compromising surface," Pletcher said...

    Pletcher said Dunkirk, who ran 11th under Edgar Prado, might run in the Belmont but the prime goal for the $3.7 million horse will be the Travers.

On Summer Bird:

    Outside Barn 42, Summer Bird frolicked in the grass as if he had just had the time of his life. Find an extended replay of the Derby and watch as this beast, who ran sixth, gallops out to second on the turn, finally pulling up nearly abreast of Mine That Bird.

    "Both of them are Birdstone," said Summer Bird's trainer, Tim Ice (Doesn't Molson make a Tim Ice?).

    "Obviously, he's a Triple Crown horse. This was just his first crop to race. I'm happy with him. He showed he belonged in there. We beat Dunkirk with all his hype. They were knocking my horse for only running three times."

   After a little conversation like this, the victory by Mine That Bird looked less implausible, perhaps even conceivable.

FYI,

   The Cable Channel, "Animal Planet"(Jockeys), Had actively lobbied trainer Bennie Woolley to put rider Chantel Sutherland on the back of Mine That Bird.

    Sutherland was a featured performer on the show in its first season, and she might have gotten the mount had Square Eddie not been pulled out of the race. When that happened, Calvin Borel became available, and The rest is History......

I Call that Fate....

More Tidbits:

    Since mutuel field betting was eliminated in 2001, a total of 29 horses have gone off at odds of 50-1 or greater in the Derby.

    Four of those 29 have hit the board. At 55-1, Invisible Ink ran second in 2001. At 50-1, Giacomo won the 2005 Derby. And 71-1 shot Closing Argument finished second that same year. Now 50-1 shot Mine That Bird won this year.

     Twenty of those 29 long shots finished no better than 10th. Twelve of those 20 finished no better than 15th.

     Consider, too, that between Donerail’s win in 1913, which paid $184.90 on a $2 bet, and Giacomo in 2005, only four Derby winners paid $50 or more.

    They were Exterminator in 1918 ($61.20), Gallahadion in 1940 ($72.40), Dark Star in 1953 ($51.80), Proud Clarion in 1967 ($62.20).

    We’ve now had two Derby winners in the past four years pay more than $100 to win.

    Mine That Bird was the 17th betting choice, ahead of only Join in the Dance (51-1) and Atomic Rain (55-1). Starting with 2001, the 17th choice among the bettors has finished 10th, 18th, 13th, 18th, 14th, 19th and 15th. (Only 16 horses ran in 2003.)

    Mine That Bird’s original selling price of $9,500 is the lowest amount at public auction for an eventual Derby winner since 1971 champion Canonero II, who sold for $1,200 as a yearling.

    Of course, co-owners Leonard Blach and Mark Allen paid $400,000 last year for the Canadian 2-year-old champion, but the yearling price was quite the bargain.

    Last year’s Derby winner, Big Brown, sold for $60,000 at the 2006 Fasig-Tipton sales.

    Sackatoga Stables paid $22,000 for 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide as a yearling. Seattle Slew, the 1977 Triple Crown winner, brought $17,500 as a yearling. Silver Charm, the 1997 Kentucky Derby winner, sold for $16,500. Dust Commander, who won the 1970 Derby for Robert E. Lehmann of Paris, sold for just $6,500. But that was way back in 1968.

Preakness:

    Trainer D. Wayne Lukas didn't make the Racing Hall of Fame by accepting failure.   So even though his colt Flying Private finished last in the Kentucky Derby after breaking from the far outside post 19, Lukas plans to run him right back in the May 16 Preakness at Pimlico. A field as large as 13, including Derby shocker Mine That Bird, is shaping up for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

     Two new Preakness possibles are Terrain and Charitable Man, fourth and seventh, respectively, last out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Mr. Fantasy and Miner's Escape have both been withdrawn from consideration.

I don't get all of the Larry Jones worship. I thought his comments after the race were a display of sour grapes. I mean his horse grabbed a quarter. Get over it. It's horse racing and anything that could go wrong will probably go wrong for most horses in any race.

GunBow - make sure that you get your facts right before making statements. Giacomo could not have run against Lion Heart as a two year old as Lion Heart was foaled in 2001 and Giacomo in 2002. Lion Heart was second in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Matthew W. - I totally agree with you that POTN is the best 3 year old so far this year. Should have won the Derby but Gomez wasn't watching for Bo-Rail, too bad. But kudos to the winning jockey and horse.

Drayney, I hope I never get as jaded as you about anything in life. It is attitudes like yours that has turned so many people away from racing over the years. Are you so blind that you fail to see the beauty of what we witnessed in this year's Kentucky Derby? Mine That Bird's run was nothing short of magnificent. Who cares that you spent months going over charts & stats.Who cares that he never ran like he did in the Derby before Saturday? That is so irrelevant. Have you ever seen any horse do what he did on Saturday.It was a race for the ages & magnificence like that is very rarely seen. THAT is the point. Do you own any horses or even know a horse? Spend some time with one. Appreciate that they are living beings & not just numbers & stats on some chart.

ColetteMarie

Whoever picked this winner without purely guessing I want reading my future. Really, who in their right mind after looking at the PP's seriously would've considered "Bird"? My pick, "Pioneer of the Nile" DID finish second. It would be something if all three Triple Crown races came up with 'off' tracks. The Belmont S. should be a real humdinger if both 'Mine that Bird' and "Pioneer" make it; since both their sires are Belmont winners. If the Belmont comes up muddy; Ala Affirmed & Alydar outcome perhaps?  After Giacamo I didn't think lightning could strike twice but it did. I'm only sorry I didn't have the 'Super' :( I'm glad for 'Mine that Bird and his connections though. The KY. Derby is a perfect expample why horse racing is the greatest sport played outdoors. The KY Derby Proves once again to the Sheiks that no one can buy a Derby win.

ColetteMarie,

MTB ran a fabulous race and was a deserving winner. Never mind the draynay dude, over the course of 6 months he changed his mind a dozen times or more on his choice for the winner. Each time his pick was going to blow everybody else away and it never happened. He can't help himself, he changes colors just to ridicule.  

Friesan Fire came out of the Derby with nine cuts. All four of his legs were cut:

www.philly.com/.../20090504_Preakness_is_possible_for_nicked_Friesan_Fire.html

RacingFan, When are people like you going to wake up! Face the fact that the cheaters in this sport are ruining horse racing. If you are naive enough to think that if you dope your horse you will get caught, I have a bridge in New York to sell you. It has become obvious there are trainers and owners who are doping their horses, and in most part getting away with it. It has become too easy to invent new compounds that the tracks are not testing for and use them untill someone figures it out. Then all you have to do is move on to another class of chemicals that the tracks are not currently testing for. Untill the money is spent to catch the cheats they will continue to do so and with the huge amounts of money involved in purses, price of horses, stud fees, etc., there is no incentive to stop. The horse racing industry is hurting right now and they don't feel they have the money to combat this problem in a serious way. They also feel if they did catch a large number of trainers or owners, that it would cause such an uproar that it would be the death nail for the horse racing industry. I couldn't disagree more. I personally feel if they would, that more people like myself would come back to racing. But untill they do, I won't spend nearly the money I used to. Before people on this blog want to have me strung up I must say this. Do I think MTB was doped? Probably not. Do I think someone could dope a horse in the KY Derby and get away with it? ABSOLUTELY!!!!!!!

Greg J and ColleteMarie:  Why should I be happy that a mutt won the Kentucky Derby ?  The horse that deserved it was POTN.  Mine That Bird had no business being in the race.  Let me know how many more races he wins this year. The only race he will win is an allowance back in New Mexico.  Come back here after the Preakness and tell me how many lengths Big Drama whips the Derby winner by.  Let's see what happens when there is REAL speed in the race.  2005 and 2009 have many things in common including the weakest fields I have ever seen. Do I know more about training horses then Larry Jones no... but we both have the same number of Derby wins don't we.  Race horses race you are NOT going to win a Derby training a horse 7 weeks out.

Bird was spectacular in the race and will forever be The Derby winner no matter what he does the rest of his career.If he wins the Preakness there will be a horse waiting for him  at the Belmont-Nicanor who will beat everyone!!! Watch Big Drama that's the word from Mr meow[Greg J] and he knows winners just look at his Derby picks 0-4 none hit the board! Load up on Drama he's alock.

Householder,

I remember the Derby the year Casual Lies ran and I remember he was first coming down the stretch adn I thought he would win.  That would have been a HUGE upset too.

This little horse, MTB, may turn out to be the best of the year.  Who knows?  He might be something special and wouldn't that be cool?

A horse that comes out of nowhere who does fantastic things.  It's really good for the sport.  We will have to wait and see what happens but what a thrill for that trainer and owner.  I cannot imagine.  I can hardly wait for the Preakness and the Belmont now.

TO COLETTEMARIE: In your response to DrayNay, you asked, "Have you ever seen any horse do what he did on Saturday?"

While I sure as heck do not want to defend DrayNay (who's suddenly calling POTN a champion after dissing him all winter), I have to answer your question with a resounding yes. Big come-from-behind moves are not unusual at all in racing.

You might enjoy this YouTube video of Silky Sullivan: www.youtube.com/watch

In case you think only stakes horses can do that, here's a video of a 3-yr-olds and up maiden fillies and mares race at Hawthorne in October 2008. It was won by Donnaguska in much the same way MTB won the Derby. Bear in mind that this was a 6 FURLONG race! She came from "far, far, far back" to win by 2 1/4 lengths. She went off at 17-1 and paid $37.80 to win. www.youtube.com/watch

www.youtube.com/watch

Why do people keep saying "little guy"?  Allen, who apparently bribed the legislator, got $30 million when VECO was sold, and he and Blach paid $400K for the horse.  So you have a guy who'll bribe a legislator and a vet owning this guy.  

Just as an aside, do they test for "blood doping" in horses like they do in human athletes?

GREG J, just for the record , for the last 7 years I have  been a Professional Graphic Designer for a Marketing & Advertsing Company. I can assure you I can design or duplicate any picture, logo, Ticket etc.on my Mac and you or anyone wouldn't know if it was authentic or not.I found your story incredible , not knowing you personally I have no reason to doubt or not  believe your story .Just thought that the bloggers should know the facts on what can be done. Since your a honest man I'm sure you'll report your winnings to the IRS when you do your taxes next year!

Designerman

Yeah?  What do you do and are you into this with a company?  What is your fee? :)

Draynay

Mine That Bird had no buiseness in the race?  Hmmm well I find that very strange as he won it and beat Barbaro's victory win.  :)

Mine That Birds win will do as much for racing as did D'Tara.  A funny fluke from a 1-32 trainer.  I am over it bring on the Preakness.

If Mine That Bird comes within 5 lengths of Big Drama I will quit calling the Derby winner a mutt.

Jason et al---To better understand the benefits and reality of increased circulating red blood cells and their attached hemoglobin molecules, please go to the Altitude Simulation Technologies site at www.equinealtitudetraining.com and click on "altitude science" at the top of that page. It gives a fairly concise explanation of how living/being at higher elevations can benefit athletes, especially when they go to compete at lower elevations. There is debate about the extent of the benefit, but I believe that it is real. I have been in a health profession for about thirty years, and one of my children is a physiologist. MTB probably had altitude training on his side (nothing unfair) for the Derby, but the effect will gradually diminish over a few weeks. I don't like to get into big harangues on these blogs, but I think this concept deserves explaining. I believe MTB was the best horse absolutely; the extra hemoglobin just helped him do it with without as much physiological stress.

Dray...sometimes I enjoy your hard knocking post but sometimes I don't. Today.. I don't. To call MTB a mutt makes you look bad buddy. This horse is royally bred. to call him a mutt doesn't say much about your knowledge of thouroghbred pedigree. Unfortunatly you sound like a sore loser and nobody likes a sore loser. REAL speed in the race Dray???? Now you sound like an outsider who knows zero,zip,zilcho about horse racing. Please take another look at the speed in the race and for your own sake, please keep in mind the track was sloppy. MTB proved he belonged in the race. He smoked everyone. Even your "nextest" favorite in line..Dunkirk.  Now you say PON deserved to win??? Please Dray...stop swaying with the wind. Before the derby you had nothing good to say about the California horses and the "synthetic" specialists. Now your on board???? I will admit MTB has a tough challenge with BD but lets face the music. He had some tough challenges in the derby. A weak derby field??? I disagree. Furthermore you may have the same number of wins as Larry in the derby but how many times have you saddled a horse for the derby???? oh...what is that you say...NONE. How many seconds???? oh, what is that you say???? NONE!!! I rest my case. Bring it on Dray... I know its coming.

Sorry, the last portion of the last sentence in my 5/6/09 5:07 P.M. post is supposed to read, "without as much physiological stress."

I grew up in Colorado and can agree with the altitude scenerio. I had friends and family visit and they couldn't breath. I could hike all day. May not be of much relevence but we use to drive to the mountains just to drink a beer. Much cheaper LOL....

I don't live there now but I go back once a year and now I'm the one who can't breath.

Truth be told Dray....your just throwing a tantrum because you lost your money and your blaming it on MTB.  All the "scientific" handicapping evidence just didn't pan out for you. I guess if it was that easy, we would all be rich. You need to keep one quote in mind at all times...... " I guess that's why they run the race".

Big Red,

     I guess "Mine that Bird" pulled a "Silky Sullivan", Great videos Red, Amazing that SS came back from 41 lengths!!!(What was the trainer thinking when he had him breeze the morning of the Derby, Crazy!)

     Donnaguska, Now that was also an incredible stretch run!, The call of the race was classic, ""Here comes Donnaguska !!!... where did she come from?....Oh my Goodness, She had to be fifteen back", Great Comeback...

    What do you think was the maximum amount of lengths "Mine that Bird" was behind during the Derby?, That would be interesting to find out...

Karen2---Yes, there's nothing like climbing all the stairs at Seven Falls near Colorado Springs to let you know what sort of condition you're in!!

It makes me nervous when Draynay suddenly says that my choice since a 2 year old Pioneerof the Nile should have won the Derby. Of course I have to this once agree with Draynay on that simply because I like POTN but Draynay said only amonth ago that no way would POTN win it. A synthetic horse from California that wins the Santa Anita Derby should just be thrown out of the picture. Well, how's it feel to eat some crow. Never doubt any horse as Mine That Bird showed. I liked that horse as a 2 year old but honestly did not think he could win the Derby but he proved me wrong. But I will stay with POTN for the rest of the Classics. If you make your choice at the beginning then stay with them but go ahead and throw a few possibles in as well. Nothing is a sure thing in horseracing.

Preakness confirmed starters:

Mine That Bird

Musket Man

Papa Clem

General Quarters

Flying Private

Big Drama

Hull

Take the Points

Terrain

Also, Pioneer of the Nile is Possible.

"Rachel Alexandra" in the Preakness????, If she is sold to The Stonestreet Stables of Jess Jackson, Then it could become a reality...A transfer of Rachel Alexandra would raise the possibility of the filly being supplemented for a $100,000 fee to the next jewel of the Triple Crown, the May 16 Preakness.  Should a deal be struck, Steve Asmussen, who trained Curlin for Jackson, would take over the training of Rachel Alexandra.

If she races, Then EVERYONE would be running for second.....

Giacomo did run 2nd, by a length, in the Hollywood Futurity. The winner of that race was Declan's Moon, the 2 year old champion of 2004. I attended both the 2003 and 2004 runnings of the Hollywood Futurity, and both unfolded in a similar manner. I confused Lion Heart, the 2003 winner, and Declan's Moon. It really doesnt affect the point I was making. Giacomo had some back class coming into the Derby, and was an overlay at 50-1. On the otherhand, I believe Mine That Bird was an underlay at 50-1, and probably should have been 75-1. However, he ran like he was 2 to 5.

Gunbow,

     Thanks for your insight to Jones and Friesan Fire, I agree that he was thinking about the safety of his horse...

Love these blogs, some people get real fired up, What is the big deal on scratching IWR vet said every fifth step he walked lame, bad situation, only call to make. IEAH certainlt took a bad tumble, racing gods have a way to humble everyone don"t they. Congrats to mine that bird and connections, some one said it right earlier, there are a lot very good trainers who do not get the chance to have a barn full of top horses to train year after year like LUCAS did, another case of gods humbling ways, treat them nice on the way up cause you will meet them on the way down.

For all the people who said he will never win another race, I'll quote Mike Maker, D. Wayne Lucas assistant when Charismatic won the Derby.Quote from the book Three strides before the wire " Mike Maker took Charismatic's bridle and started leading the horse back to the barn. A drunk fan stood at the fence watching them. That horse will never win another race the guy yelled. He doesn't have to Maker said"

For your Casual Lies fans, he went to stud in New Zealand; his pedigree was quite 'turfy' - Lear Fan over Blakeney (REAL Derby winner) - after all, so it was a good place for him. My data from NZ is incomplete, but I do know that he sired a New Zealand Derby winner and an Oaks winner over in Australia.

I agree with Dray.  POTN was the best horse in the race (over 1 million in earnings, great 2 year old foundation, multi-grade 1 winner, 4 straight wins, 59 change work, etc. etc.)  I would have liked to have seen Go-Go's face at the 1/8th pole as I doubt he even saw MTB and when he did it was too late to react.  It looked like POTN had is won.  

A 7 week layoff...that goes against all handicapping.  I'm not dismissing his injuries just saying he was an easy toss and did not take any of my money.

For the record, Giacomo also took the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar.  This means he won 3 races lifetime.  

Speaking of speed figures..., Most of you are aware that speed figures are arrived at by comparing times to pars for the distance and class at a particular track, with appropriate adjustments for fast and slow days. But where do the pars come from? They SHOULD come from historical data, races run over the track in meets past. But what about a new track like Presque Isle or a new surface like Gulfstream (3? years ago), or Santa Anita (2 new surfaces in the last 2 years)? There is no history so no pars, unless you guess. The number and variety of new surfaces in the last 5 years may well have been more than the figure makers could handle and they appear to have made some poor decisions about how to deal with the situation. Telling customers "We can't make figures because we don't have the pars yet," would have shown the most integrity, but it would have lost them business.

Monica V,

Lil E T caught Casual Lies. The trainer was from the Fair Circuit.  In fact, I think she got her start at Cal-Expo in Sacramento (sandwitched in between the 6,000 claimers, Arabians, and racing mules).  I wonder if Riley is still alive (she was about 45 in 92).  The last I read, Casual Lies was in New Zealand or something crazy like that. She turned down all that money to "follow her dream."  This story is just as amazing...the one horse trailer, the 22 hour drive, 1-32 trainer.  You can't make this stuff up.  Bob Baffert (who may have trained quarter horses in New Mexico) was very gracious in defeat.  He said "Those cowboys got us" with that famous Bob Baffert smirk.  

Karen2: Just read your post 06-05-5:15PM. To funny you go girl you made my day!

How about the other little horse that could.  Musket Man...Yonaguska stands for $4,000.  I kind of like the Cherokee Run influence for the Preakness as I think that speedy one finished second to Pra- Bayou?.  If your willing to toss MTB, you could go POTN, MM, Papa Clem, right back.  

Longwaytomay:  WOW!  That was a defensive answer! How is it that you come by your definitive information?  I did not say there is no cheating in racing. I'm sure there is-just as there are lawbreakers and there will always be.  I also agree it needs to be dealt with strongly! I however choose to believe that it is not the majority and I don't believe anyone would be dumb enough to try it in the derby.  The whole point was that it is sad to me that the horse can't get his due if people have to speculate that somebody cheated.  If you were the connections, how would you feel about that?  Also, if a brand new fan watched the derby then read those types of comments they could be lost forever and that is NOT good for racing!

MTB won convincingly. Whatever he does from now on is gravy. No one can ever take this win away from him. Whether high altitude training ramped up his HGB or not wasn't the decisive factor in this race, even if it was a help. This horse was moving on that day and he beat at least one very good horse, POTN. If all "Mutts' run like, this we need more "Mutts" in horse racing.

If you didn't happen to see Andy Beyer's post-Derby article about  the "Perfect Storm," it is a very, very interesting read. Here it is:

"After Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby, all reports of the race noted the 50-to-1 payoff was the second highest in the race's history. Even so, most casual fans probably did not appreciate the magnitude of this incomprehensible upset.

Because many people blindly bet on long shots in the Derby, even hopeless horses rarely go off at odds as high as 50-1. Mine That Bird deserved to be 200-1. (Indeed, customers of Betfair, the international gambling Web site, could have fetched odds of 220 to 1 in midweek. When wagering closed, the gelding was 139 to 1.) This was one of the biggest upsets in the history of American racing. In my four decades of covering the sport, it ranks as one of the two most mystifying results in a major stakes race, along with Canonero II's victory in the 1971 Derby.

For devotees of speed figures -- which usually have been a reliable gauge of Derby horses -- this result was especially hard to explain. Since the publication of the Beyer Speed Figures, the weakest horse to win the Derby was Giacomo, who had never earned a figure higher than 98 before he scored his 50-to-1 upset in 2005. Yet Giacomo looked like a superhorse compared to Mine That Bird, whose lifetime figure was the 81 he recorded while losing an obscure stakes race in New Mexico. His figure of 105 in the Derby represented a 17-length improvement. How did it happen? I put that question yesterday to a few of the people whose opinions I respect the most: professional handicappers Maury Wolff and Paul Cornman, New York Racing Association TV analyst Andy Serling, and ESPN commentator Randy Moss. With their help, I have tried to fashion an explanation for Saturday's events.

It's not a simple explanation, but as Moss said, "What happened was a perfect storm of situations that added up to give you a wacky result."

These were the elements of the perfect storm:

--The Derby field was weak and the best horses delivered poor performances on the sloppy track.

--Racing on or near the rail was an advantage at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and jockey Calvin Borel took advantage of the conditions by keeping Mine That Bird on the rail.

--Mine That Bird obviously relished the sloppy track, and he evidently possessed more talent than his past performances indicated.

The two outstanding members of the 3-year-old crop, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, had been knocked out of the Derby by injuries; I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race. In their absence, nobody possessed rock-solid credentials.

Even in a normal year, few horses deliver peak performances in the Derby -- it's an extraordinarily difficult and stressful race. Over a sloppy track, even fewer horses fire their best shots. On Saturday, Friesan Fire, the favorite, barely picked up his feet and lost by more than 40 lengths. Dunkirk, the second choice, lost by more than 20. Almost nobody besides the winner ran well. If Mine That Bird hadn't been in the field, the winning speed figure for the Derby would have been 95 -- by far the lowest ever for a Triple Crown event.

Besides having trouble with the sloppy track, many of the horses in the Derby were compromised by the bias of the Churchill racing strip. Most of the winners Saturday spent all or part of their journeys near the rail, and nobody won circling the field. This was no secret: ESPN's commentators were talking about the bias all afternoon and asking the jockeys about it. But few of the riders in the Derby tried to take advantage of the rail, except for Borel, whose propensities have earned the nickname 'Bo-Rail.' His performance was almost a duplicate of his rail-skipping ride aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Derby. Wolff observed, "With any other rider, Mine That Bird doesn't get that trip."

The bias wasn't so strong that it was propelling bad horses to victory. There hadn't been any absurd results on the Churchill card before the Derby. In the Derby, jockey Kent Desormeaux also stayed on the rail with his mount, Hold Me Back, and he made a strong move on the turn before his mount faltered badly. So the winner needed some talent to take advantage of his ground-saving trip.

Presumably Mine That Bird improved because he relished the sloppy track -- something no handicapper could have anticipated before the race.. But the gelding may have been a better horse than he looked on paper. After the Derby, I reviewed the films of his previous races. In both of his starts this spring at New Mexico's Sunland Park, his jockey made ill-judged, premature moves to vie for the lead. In both races he fought tenaciously before fading in the stretch. I would imagine some handicappers in New Mexico were eagerly waiting to bet him the next time he ran. However, no rational handicapper could have considered these trips a harbinger for a victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Mine That Bird's win will be popularly regarded as the result of a once-in-a-lifetime perfect storm. Probably this opinion is correct; probably the gelding will never win another major race. However, I can remember that the other utterly implausible Derby winner, Canonero II, was regarded the same way. Two weeks later he won the Preakness and forced all of the doubters to revise their opinion that the Derby was a fluke."

Jess Jackson purchases Rachael Alexandra with the intention of breeding her to the great Curlin after her racing days are over. The Big Brown/Stardom Bound mating pales by light years to this anticipated coupling!!!!!!!

Now its Rachel claims Mr Meow [Greg j], man you know everything and your capping is what people log onto this blog for I suppose. Why don't you quit your day job and become a pro handicapper?Everyone make sure you bet Rachel if she runs , we have been given the word, but a word of caution this is the guy who was 0-4 in the Derby-I wonder if he owns a Mac?

TO RACINGFAN: In your 06 May 2009 9:04 PM  response to LONGWAYTOMAY you wrote, "The whole point was that it is sad to me that the horse can't get his due if people have to speculate that somebody cheated...Also, if a brand new fan watched the derby then read those types of comments they could be lost forever and that is NOT good for racing!"

With all due respect, I think you have it precisely backwards. The racing industry is responsible for its own tarnished reputation, not fans who are understandably distrustful of it. Whether or not the percentage of unethical owners and trainers is small or large, once the public's trust is lost, it's excruciatingly difficult to win it back.

Fans have justifiable reasons for their skepticism and distrust of this industry. Rather than trying to shut people like LONGWAYTOMAY up, the industry needs to pay close attention. Once upon a time, people with LONGWAYTOMAY's viewpoint were racing's lonesome "canaries in the coal mine." But the canaries are long since dead and what killed them is now eating away the heart, soul and sinew of the industry.

Sorry guys, just caught up with this blog.

About the elevation stuff:  Woodbine is in Toronto.  Toronto is about the same elevation as Chicago.  Is there an elevation bias for a horse from Chicago running in Louisville?

(did that sound snarky?  I'm sort of feeling snarky about all of the people in the various blogs complaining to the BloodHorse about not having advised them that MTB was champion 2YO in Canada last year.  Fergawdssakes: there are good horses all over the world.  The BloodHorse does keep up with them.  Read about horses running in other countries than yours!)

Thanks Wanda. I was feeling my "oats" yesterday....don't really like to scrap with folks on the blogs but I got irritated. MTB and Calvin deserve all the accolades they are receiving.

RuRoh...... Rachel Alexendra.. Sold..probably going to be in the hands of Steve A..... hmmmmm... could she be pointed to the preakness to spoil the TC bid???

I'm late getting this posted, but I love to see all of this dialogue about horse racing.  I work at a high school and we have all talked about the race this week and I am the only one with a horse background! My point is that all of America may be talking about horse racing and they are excited about it - quite a change from last year after Eight Belles!  Isn't that just as important?  The American Dream being realized in a sad, difficult time in our country!  In defense of Mine that Bird, he didn't just get up to win by a little - he blew them away.  Hopefully, it is a great breakout race for a superstar and not just a one-time feat.  Only time will tell.  He was a sound, healthy, happy and energetic horse after the derby - that should symbolize what we want racing to be represent!

FYI,

   Edgar Prado will be on Take the Points in Preakness.  Prado rode Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby, but Dunkirk is being pointed to the June 6 Belmont Stakes. Take the Points was ridden by Alex Solis in his last start, the Santa Anita Derby.  Jockey Eibar Coa chose to ride Derby third-place finisher Musket Man over Big Drama for the Preakness, so John Velazquez will climb aboard Big Drama. That left Take the Points open for Prado.  Take the Points has two wins in six career starts, both with Prado in the irons: a maiden victory last fall at Belmont Park, and an entry-level allowance at Gulfstream Park on January 31 which earned the colt a career-high 99 Beyer speed figure.

RA to Preakness:

    An official with the Maryland Jockey Club confirmed Wednesday that a representative from Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables contacted the Maryland Jockey Club regarding the possibility of running Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.

   Of course She will run in the Preakness, Why else would they have rushed the sale of her so quickly, The clock was ticking....

    Still don't know what to feel about RA being sold, I feel terrible for Hal Wiggins, though,  I guess Borel will probably ride her, and Mike Smith will be on Mine that Bird...

    I will say this, a RA/CURLIN Offspring, Talk about a SUPER HORSE !!!

I Guess it is all about the Mighty Dollar...

Months ago I said Rachel Alexandra was the best 3 year old in the country and I was stopped from talking about her by JASON because she was not going to the Derby........WELL !!! SHE IS GOING TO THE PREAKNESS and we will now see who the REAL champion is.  We had a horse that could have won the Triple Crown but now she will have to deal with winning the Preakness and Belmont.  GO RACHEL !!!!!!!!

HELP...

    Can Anyone find a Comment From "The Phantom" that shows any insight or knowledge on Horse Racing(Or the "Triple Crown", Which I believe is what Jason's Blog is all about), PLEASE !!!, I have been looking and looking, and it just seems that he is obsessed with me, lol.....

    I might agree or disagree with some people here and vice-versa, BUT at least myself and other people form an opinion!, and offer there perspective and knowledge, Which I think a Blog is all about, It is a shame, "Phantom", Could you please enlighten me with what your opinion is on anything related to the Triple Crown?, Anything?, Like maybe who you might think will win the upcoming Preakness(Of the announced field so far)?, Maybe some opinion on Pedigree's?, Maybe some opinion on the Derby?, Maybe some opinion on the sale of R.A.?, Maybe some opinion on the state of Horse Racing in America?, Please , Something?, Anything?....

    I am on pins and needles waiting for your expert opinion...

mz----The point is that MTB had been living/training at Sunland Park--elevation 3789ft. Louisville's elevation is 466ft. That the horse once lived in Toronto (elevation 249ft.) has virtually nothing to do with the present time. Think of having lots of RBC's/hgb. as the opposite of being anemic. Anemia causes fatigue, weakness, etc. The opposite would be strong, alert, etc.

Dray,

    I agree 100 percent, Rachel Alexandra is better then any three year old, Male or Female!, She is a complete Freak(In a great way!).  So, Dray, Would you say she will take Big Drama, You think they are one, two, in the preakness?

For Ann in Lexington - I found some information for you on Casual Lies who I really liked and I actually had a roundabout connection to the horse as a good friend of mine Dr. Leonard Larson DVM was a close friend of his trainer and when she was going to purchase Casual Lies asked him to take a look at the horse and give his opinion, he told her "this colt could win the Kentucky Derby." Not too bad an opinion as he did finish second. He stands at stud at Windsor Park Stud in New Zealand and is a very useful sire having produced 12 stakewinners 3 of them Gr.1, he appears to make the leading sire lists frequently. They have a really nice rundown on his offspring and a beautiful picture of him. Hope this helps.

FYI,

   Friesan Fire will be in the Preakness if he is 100 percent, Said his trainer, Larry Jones. Jones said that Friesan Fire returned to the track Thursday morning at Delaware Park. Jones said he intends to ship Friesan Fire to Pimlico on Monday and work him over the track on Tuesday.

   If he is in the gate on next Saturday, Then there is no doubt he will be 100 percent ready and fit. I just hope his psyche wasn't messed up from the Derby.

Months ago many believed RA was the best 3 yr old in the country so nay nay you aren't alone there. Quit trying to pump up your own ego. Jason "stopped" you from talking about her? Since when has anybody stopped you from running off at the mouth here? Here's another chance for you to change your mind on who is going to "blow away" everybody else in the next leg of the Triple Crown. Some thing never change do they?

I like everyone else didn't see Mind that bird winning the derby way back in Febuary but looking at how it happened he is agood little horse that likes the mud.  And that was the worst track i have seen in along time.  And alot of people have been comparing him to other derby winners.  LIke Streetsence like i heard one guy compaire him to Scratarious i don't think he is that good.  But i do think right now he is a cinderalla story when we get to the Preakness in a week i would like nothing more then to see this horse get bet.  Because he is not Triple Crown matterial but that just goes to show you that is horse racing and we have had two 50 to 1 in big races when mind that bird in the kentucky derby.  It will be interseting to see who Calvin Boral chooses to ride.  Don't get me wrong i like calvin i have delt with him before.  I would be willing to bet this thought i over looked Mind that Bird like alot of people i felt cheated loosing the Kentucky derby to a 50 to 1 shot in the final one hundered yards.  I have always liked Churchhill downs thats why i find this losse difficult like most people.  

I gotta agree with draynay's statement that Mine That Bird will do as much for racing as Da Tara did. First of all Da Tara exposed big brown for what he was. Better than his extremely weak generation one day but unable to beat even a mere maiden the next. Mine That Bird may have do just the same, only time will tell.

TO: GW_BUSHWACKER

If you met me you wouldn't be called me "little Mikey". You have the safety to sit at your computer and wail away on everyone. As regards to EDWARD,Jason also told him regarding his stupid remark about Larry Jones.

Draynay

MTB isn't a "mutt". He won the Derby and no one,including you and myself had him!

MIKEM:

It's not "hero worship"regarding Larry Jones. You're way off!