Great Analysis. I agree with everything you said, except that you'd get 2/1 on Rachel. I think Rachel will be around 7/5. We shall see.

Birdie can do it if he gets the trip like he did at the derby. have to prove that his win is no fluke.

pioneer and fire can pull it off. rachel might have met her match- boys tend to be stronger in the spring and the girls catch up in the fall (think breeders cup)

i am pulling for fire to get it

Well..... I like them all and will be happy with the outcome regardless. I have grown fond of these horses through their derby preps and following them through the many trials and exciting races they have given us. MTB is the exception as I didn't know much about him however he took the derby in such commanding fashion he instantly gained my respect. With the addition of the amazing RA this will turn out to be perhaps even more exciting than the derby as I feel she is ready for the boys and I can't wait to see what she has in her tank.

Sitting Bull made some amazing predictions prior to the derby so it may be wise to throw some money on Papa Clem and Musket man.

I have stated I think it's a tough call to wheel her back in 2 weeks but saying that she didn't extend herself much in the Oaks. She will have to run the race of her life in the Preakness and will face the toughest field she has ever faced. I still think a good colt will outrun a good filly most days of the week but she is a little better than good.

MY PICK IS

 MINE THAT BIRD TO WIN.

 REASON, IMPROVING WITH EACH RACE, HAS MIKE SMITH IN THE IRONS, RAIN IS FORECASTED. HE HAS GREAT POST POSITION.  

PLACE.  MUSKET MAN

 HE TOO IS IMPROVING WITH EACH RACE. LIKE HIS CHANCES WITH SHORTER DISTANCE AND PP. I PICKED HIS SIRE YONAGUSKA TO BREED TO RACHEL ALEXANDRA ON THE OTHER BLOG.

SHOW RACHEL ALEXANDRA

I THINK SHE IS A GOOD FILLY, BUT NEW BARN, NEW SMELLS,NEW ROUTINE, GROOM, STABLEMATES, PLUS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE TRACK IF OFF AND SHE GETS HIT WITH MUD OR DIRT?

EITHER BO-RAIL WILL USE HER QUICK TO GET THE RAIL, OR WILL HAVE TO LAY BACK OFF PACE. WHICH SHE DOES NOT LIKE TO BE RATED.

SHE WILL GET THE LEAD BUT TIRE AND BE PASSED.

Got to Say I agree with you for the most part J, i think she is the one to beat in this race, and if she is as good as most of us think she is ,she will take some beating.

I Have to say though I think this race will set up nicely for Pioneerof the Nile, they went to fast for my liking early in the derby and he was rite on the lead. I think that combined with the fact of him making the lead so early did him in.If Rachel slips up he has a good shot.

I also like Big drama, although not his post draw , but Johny will get him in a good spot and settle him, he might be on the lead early. I don't expect a very fast pace.

I see the race playing out at the top of the stretch with Big drama leading of the turn with Rachel net to him and Friesan fire rite there. Gomez will want to have pioneer of the Nile a little behind this giving him a target to run at.

At this point a few things can happen. I'm hoping they all fire and we have a stretch battle.

Seriously though, This is contingent on Rachel, If she is anywhere near the horse I think and she shows up , the stretch battle win be for show.

My pick

1 Rachel Alexandra, (by 4)

2 Pioneerof The Nile

3 Friesan fire

Jason, Mine That Bird is a toss AGAIN? Isn't that what most of us did in the Derby?

I don't pretend to be a great handicapper but, I learn from my mistakes (and I've made many). There's no way I'm tossing Bird with or without rain. In fact, I'll be rooting for him. Go BIRD!!! Prove them all wrong AGAIN!!!

This is one of the best crops of three year olds I've seen so far and as much as I would like to see a filly win against the boys again(its always good to see that) and as much as I want to see a horse with a chance at the Triple Crown again. This year is a definate toss up I'm indifferent its anyones game and I'll be happy no matter what.  

Min That Bird WILL WIN the Preakness>>In a Romp!!!

Jason - the next 2 weeks of racing will be great fun - RA wins the Preakness this week and then The $600,000 Met Mile next week at Belmont is shaping up to be a great race looking at the nominations that were just posted. We will see who enters.  Looking forward to Saratoga this summer to see if RA stays in with the boys. If she wins Saturday, I assume the Travers would be on her schedule, don't you??

I'm so eager to see how this race turns out.  Just hope the track comes up perfect, with a good start by all.  I'm still pulling for RA.  

Cheers,

Heather

I'll take the bird if it rains.  Rachel has to prove she can beat some quality horses that are better than Gabby's Golden Gal.  Even at 2-1 that is way to low in my book for the risk.  

its like you were reading my mind but the question is can racheal alexander run in the mud i hope she can this week has been wierd and upseting at times its like those 3 owners are intimidated by her and thats why they dont want to see her in the race i hope she kicks you know what!!

The horse that wins the Preakness is going to be the right horse on the right day with the right jockey.  Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery.  Today is a gift.  :)  Let them all be safe and sound in the end.  I personally would love to see Mine That Bird win.  If he doesn't, it won't change my feelings about him.

I'm betting against her. It's as simple as that. Take your even money or less favorite and buy a popsicle or candy bar with all the winnings IF she comes through. I'm waiting to see the odds and surely will get much better value elsewhere.

JSHANDLE,

 I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU. FIRST, PLEASE DO NOT THINK I AM BEING RUDE. I TYPE BOLD BECAUSE I AM AT WORK.

DO YOU RIDE HORSES?

I ASK THIS BECAUSE FILLIES ARE DIFFERENT THAN COLTS. THAT IS WHY MORE FUSS IS BEING MADE ABOUT RACHEL ALEXANDRA COMING BACK AFTER TWO WEEKS THAN COLTS.

I BARREL RACE, MY PREFERENCE IS ALWAYS GIRLS. I BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE HEART AND ABSOLUTELY NO CHEAT.

110% EVERY TIME.

BUT COLTS ARE JUST LIKE MEN THEY WILL ALWAYS BE PHYSICALLY STRONGER, MUSCLE, BONE, SINEW, SIMPLY BECAUSE MALES ARE BORN THAT WAY.

  MUSCLE MEMORY, FAST TWITCHING MUSCLES ALL FACTOR IN FROM A RACE. I AM NOT AGAINST RACHEL BUT COLTS ARE POINTED TO HARD RACING FROM THE BEGINNING, THEY PLAY ROUGHER IN THE PASTURE, AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO BUMP OTHERS IN THE COURSE OF A RACE.

  FILLIES ARE ALSO VERY SENSITIVE, MAYBE SHE CAN OVERCOME ALL THE NEW STUFF.

MOST WESTERN DISCIPLINES FROM BARREL RACING, TO REINING ,TO CUTTING HAVE A RATIO OF ALMOST DOUBLE MALES TO FEMALE ATHLETES.

I HAVE A YEARLING FILLY, AND A YEARLING COLT. BOTH ARE TO BE FUTURE BARREL RACING HORSES.

 I PLAN TO FUTURITY THE COLT, BUT SAVE THE FILLY TO RUN LATER.

Either Rachel Alexandra (my pick for first) or Mine That Bird (my pick for -- ahem! -- somewhere in the top 13) would bring a lot of excitement to racing with a big win -- and even bigger going into Belmont.  The chance for a double-classic FILLY (and all the "what ifs" that would be asked about her chances in the Derby) ... the opportunity for a GELDING to go into the Belmont with a chance to bring home the elusive prize ... wow, great story possibilities.  That said... I'm putting TERRAIN and BIG DRAMA and FRIESAN FIRE in a trifecta box.  I expect to see Rachel win but if not, I'll have a nice payday!

Jason I like POTN right back--I hope he settles further back this time as they will have to go with Big Drama, and Rachel will have to go as well from way out there...if Big Drama gets a soft first 1/2, then I think he will finish in the top two, but I envision some tough sledding up front--I like POTN to win and Papa Clem to place....as far as Rachel having a great chance--fillies are up against it v males at this trip, she does not have a "great" chance--if she wins she is a great horse....

Friesan Fire will get the trip this time. Pull away be 3 or 5. Rachel fading to place with MTB catching show by a neck over Big Drama

Jason, Bird CAN win. He did it in the Derby in spite of all our tossing.

John Boudreau, I don't know about the "ROMP" but, I'm with you.

Having said that, I will enjoy the race no matter who wins. It should be a doozy!

My concern is that Borel must clear the #11 horse otherwise Prado gets the chance to push Rachel out even wider (as he has done in the past to others).  If Rachel wins, and all the horses come back to their barns safe, that would save this triple crown series for me.  The Preakness distance is right in her wheel-house, not the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont.  And, I don't agree that she needs to run the race of her life, as some here have stated.  None of these male horses are any better than her... just run your race Rachel.

There are at least 5 horses inside RA capable of keeping her parked outside unless she's sent or they'll make her jock take her back a bit and settle for position. On top of that she's not going to be trying to run down weak fillies in the lane this go round. Some of these have serious finishing kicks. Forget the Derby run on an off track. Betting wisdom says to go against her from the 13 hole and the fact she's never faced anywhere near as good as these. The public will make her the favorite and the fly by night bettors who show up only for races like this will pound her odds down. There is going to be no value in RA. Either bet against her or take a small flyer with a couple underneath and root her on.

They'll be flipping the bird to Mike Smith and his mount as they pull away from him down the lane.

Pioneer Of the Nile or Big Drama for the upset. Rachael will be left flirting with the also rans.

Without a doubt, my favorites are:

1)  Mine That Bird

2)  Big Drama

3)  Rachel Alexandra

I agree with alot of what is said in this blog. I too think it will be R.A. first accross the finnish line. Followed by Big Drama then Musket Man. I think Pioneer will get a late run in, but too little too late. As stated... bet M.T.B. if its raining. I don't see Friesan Fire bouncing back from the terribe trip in the Derby in just two weeks. Good horse... but he should be out until Belmont. Anyway, I hope the filly does it. Then later in the year, the biggest race won't be the B.C. Classic, but the Ladies Classic... queen Zenyatta v. Rachel Alexandra.

To dismiss MTB as though he has no chance to win is very dangerous.  I think he will run another breakout race whether he wins or not.  Rachel is teriffic, but she will have a giant red target painted on her backside just like Smarty Jones had.  I think that this gives MTB an even better chance since the riders may be paying the most attention to what she's doingand not MTB.  Forget about him at your own risk!!  

I've ridden in endurance races and Arab fillies/mares don't get a 1-mile head start in a 50-mile race.  I've run speed and Quarter horse fillies/mares don't get a 1/4-second handicap running barrels.  I've hooked eveners in horse pulls and Belgian filles/mares don't get a weight handicap.  I've announced events from English/Western pleasure to dressage and jumping.  Fillies/Mares not only compete successfully against males in all of these events but they do so without concessions.  Racing luck aside, RA will win if she's the best horse in the race.  Thoroughbred horse racing needs to get past this made-up issue.  

Mine That Bird - Win - Fast or Wet

Exacta Reverse: w/ Clem; Nile; Man; & somewhat less Quarter:

Key & Box the Bird with above for Triples.

I see posts 1, 5, & 13 with the early speed, being overtaken in the final 1/8th.

Best to all with their picks, may we see a great-safe race for all.

I'm sticking with FF to Win-Pl, I was high on him pre-derby and that race took virtually nothing out of him so I figure there is nothing to not like this time around especially at a shorter distance.  What does everyone think of Take the Points?  I have a feeling this one hits the board and might be nice on the bottom of some exotics, what do you think?  

Speedball, I agree. It's hard to pay attention to a horse that's behind everyone else.

I would prefer Borel but Smith is capable of guiding Bird to the front in the lane. Then it's up to the horse and his heart. I think Bird has lots of it.

It's not that I don't like Rachel Alexandra, I think she's fantastic and a GREAT addition to the Preakness. If she wins, I will be glad to have been wrong...one more time. I don't bet enough to be a sore looser!

Calvin and his one track mind are going to get shutdown. The tighter turns make it easier to block the rail path and if they let him through there it's fixed. She's not good enough to rally against these outside losing ground.

Karen2 I absolutely agree with you.  I just love all these horses.  I followed them all this entire spring and could be happy with any of them as winners or not.  For the Derby I liked Friesan Fire but Mine That Bird's run was so exciting I was thrilled.  I'm also thrilled with all the interest he's brought to racing since his win.  I watched Rachel in the Oaks with tears in my eyes at her grandeur, grace and strength. Can't wait for Sat. and I don't care who wins so long as they all come home safe.  But there will be a little money on Mine That Bird, Rachel, Friesan Fire and Papa Clem.

SHABAN,

THEN WHY DOES NOT RA CARRY THE SAME WEIGHT IMPOST AS THE BOYS?

 EVEN 5#'S IS QUITE AN ADVANTAGE,

ESPECIALLY IF YOU SAY YOU HAVE RUN BARRELS, THEN YOU SHOULD KNOW EVERY POUND OVER A HUNDRED POUNDS IS A SECOND OFF OF YOUR TIME.

ALSO GOING AROUND THE BARRELS IF YOUR HORSE IS OF BY AN INCH FROM WHERE YOU SHOULD HAVE PLACED HIM, THAT IS ALSO A HALF SECOND OF OFF YOU TIME.

SPLITS IN BARRELS RACING SHOW THIS TO BE TRUTH, TANNER TIMES ON BARREL RACES ARE BECOMING THE NORM.

Big drama people youtube his races he is a beast and is a fresh horse and will def. hit the board believe that! I think you have to take one horse and run with it since there are about 8 good horses and 5 bums!

Greg J.  

Barbaro was on #8 in the Derby and #6 in the Preakness.  Mine That Bird just may do it.  :)

Jason

Who is Edgar on?

Zookeeper-I agree whole heartedly.

I'm not much of a gambler either just love to watch the horses run.  I only hope Rachel comes out of the race soundly for racing's sake.  It would be a horrible set back if she doesn't.  I'm not surprised about many writing off MTB.  It will take another great race on his part to convince the doubters.  I think Mike Smith is a good choice.  I just hope he doesn't try to take him too wide at the end.

Hoping to hit dont take the fire he is overrated, mtb has no chance either pimlico is not suited for closers only for winners like big drama hey draynay get on the wagon again  i told you musket man would hit the board i will tell you all again big drama will hit do alot for a wps and laugh all the way to the bank yo!

RA will go wide WIDE on first turn

Jason,

I agree with your selections, although like some of the others here I'm a little worried that Calvin is gonna have a big bullseye on his back in this one. Big Drama is definitely being sent. If Fresian Fire breaks well, you got to expect Larry Jones would want him in the same position he was in in the LA Derby. Take The Points puts the blinkers on, and Pletcher was quoted that he's been a little more eager than he's used to. From the 11 hole, he wants position,and should be 3 wide, which leaves Calvin either going 4 wide, trying to clear two of the inside horses, or taking back behind stalkers like MM, POTN, LUV Gov, PP, etc. One things for sure, unless she clears a couple in here, she's getting a wide trip, and if Calvin forces the issue, they're not going to let her go easy. Someone's gonna flank her. On paper I agree with you, she's just so much the best its scary. And the fact she gets 5lbs. helps as if she needed any. But a sleeper I'm going to throw in with her on top is Musket Man. He had a great trip in the Derby and when Coa swung him wide, it took him awhile to get going again, and he passed POTN just after the wire, which is tough to do. He should be able to save ground and possibly find an opening from one of the tired leaders and shoot through. At 10-1 or better, he could be a decent straight bet/exotics play. But most of my money will be on RA. She's just a beast.

This years preakness.....first four from the Derby--as well as the Derby Favorite...and a new shooter Big Drama....and Rachel.....best Preakness field ever?...

I agree for the most part except we all know in horse racing anything can happen and with that said... Mine that bird will be victorious and he will prove that his unbelievable charge and victory in the Derby was no fluke as he literally demolished the field and will do it again ! ... Pioneer 2nd, Rachel 3rd.

I also ride...have sucessfully competed in a variety of Western events and in Dressage.  I have friends who are involved in combined training (three-day-eventing) and nothing is tougher than that.  As Shaban pointed out, mares do not get a break of any sort in those disciplines and they do compete successfully.  As Amy pointed out, however, they are more sensitive (from experience I know, thoroughbred fillies are VERY sensitive) and the change in barns could really have an impact on her performance.  I am not so worried about her physical condition (no more worried than I am about all those three-year-olds under such extreme stress) as I am about how she is handling the change mentally.  If Rachel is happy, I think she can win.

  Incidentally, I vastly prefer geldings for competition because frankly, "horses without hormones" are easier to deal with!  I suspect this is why we see more geldings than mares (or stallions) in many competitions.  If you are not involved in breeding, they are just so much less complicated!  

  In any event, let's hope for a clean race with no injuries and may the best horse win!

MTB

RA

MM or POTN

OK Antidranay, Who are the bums??? Sometimes horses tagged as "bums" end up surprising us all. Short term memory?

RA will win the Preakness and go down as one of the all time great fillies... move over Ruffian.

RA wins with MM and BD fighting for 2nd.

Go Rachel.

Last Beyers: RA 108, Mine That Bird 105.

How is RA the winner and MTB a toss?

I'm really excited about this race!

I really don't care who wins, love to see Rachel do it but if she doesn't it will be a great race as long as they all come home sound.  I'm with Karen2 and Terry V.  They are all wonderful!

By the way... watch out for Prado...he may try to force RA out really wide into the first turn. He tried to mess with Big Brown in the Preakness last year so watch him.

I've been reading some online articles saying that RA may bounce big time in this race.  She ran a career best 108BSF and 0 Ragozin in the Oaks.  Only two colts have done better than that in the Derby, Monarchos and Big Brown.  According to what I read, Monarchos never won another race and although BB won the Preakness he couldn’t do better than a 100 BSF and a 3 Ragozin in that race.  I will be surprised if numbers like that will win this Saturday.  History seems to indicate a Ragozin lower than 1 by 3yos this time of year usually signifies a regression in their next race.  Very interesting prospect.  RA is talented, but she’s flesh and blood and not a machine.  Many serious handicappers consider her a bet-against in this race.

Since I am not a serious handicapper, I can say what I want, so I am looking for a big rebound by Friesan Fire! :)

Here are the bums aka toss them. the first toss is mine that bird new jockey not a track for closers ...TOSS! Terrain ....TOSS... LOV BUM ...TOSS! GEneral Pennies....TOSS! Both lukas horses...TOSS TOSS TOSS!  There you guys go!! Take the points is a sleeper so i cant toss him.

Jason-

What gives?  Don Lucarelli (Take the Points) trying to tell Jess Jackson what he should be doing with his horse.  The audacity of one owner trying to tell  another owner what to do with their horse.  Your thoughts...

GENERAL QUATERS-KENTUCKY DERBY -DISTANCE[265}DOES THAT Mean he could not get the distance.WET [429]HE SHOULD HAVE loved wet track RIGHT? I want to bet this onebut is he off form? WILL he like the pace?LIKELY needs to be in 3 position?MAY NOT LIKE DISTANCE?I BELEIVE HE FAST ENOUGH TO BEAT ALLEXCEPT BIG DRAMA . IS BIG DRama SWALE WIN A FRAUD.

   I am very excited to watch the race and will be rooting for RA. I do wonder if having to move to a new barn, with new handlers, will affect her. She'll be running against fresh horses who haven't had to go thru that in the past 2 weeks. I hope not, but it could be a factor for her biggest test so far.

Why the 5 pound advantage for RA? That really bothers me. If she wins, people will use that as an excuse. If fillies are as strong as the colts, why the weight difference?

CAN I TOSS ALL THAT RAN AT THE FAIR GROUNDS ON A PURE CLASS ANGLE. IF THEY WERE GOOD THEY WOULD HAVE raced AT A BIG TRACK

    If the track comes up dry, I'll take a Rachel Alexandra / Papa Clem exacta box.  I see Papa Clem turning the tables on MM, MTB & POTN with the shorter distance.  He has the tactical speed to sit off the leaders and if some reason Rachel and Big Drama get into a speed duel, he'll be there to take over in deep stretch.  If not and Rachel is able to rate just fine off Big Drama, she wins and Papa Clem checks in 2nd.  For some reason, even with the 7 weeks rest after the Swale, I see Big Drama bouncing after that huge effort.  I think he'll have the lead at the 1/4 pole, but will fade in the stretch.  I'll play MM, FF, POTN, MTB, Terrain and TTP for 3rd.  I'll probably also throw Luv Guv in the 3rd spot just because it's Lukas.

    On the undercard in the Hirsch Jacobs, Checklist will be my play.  He ran a big race racing on the lead in the Derby Trial before fading late to 3rd.  The cutback to 6f should be right up his alley and at 8-1, I'll take it.  Good luck to everyone.

JUST A CURIOUS QUESTION JAY,

 IN ALL OF THIS FAIRNESS SQUABBLE, WHY SHOULDN'T RA CARRY THE SAME 126 AS THE COLTS? IF SHE IS THE BEST AND WITH HER STUNNING VICTORY, WHY SHOULD SHE NOT CARRY THE SAME WEIGHT AS THE COLTS?

ALSO, IF IT WERE A RULE THAT REGARDLESS OF SEX, ANY ENTRANT IN A TC RACE HAD TO CARRY EXACT IMPOST, WOULD RA STILL BE ENTERED?

 I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT ASSIGNING WEIGHT WHICH YOU DO WITH OLDER HORSES. I MEAN ALL 3 YR OLDS SHOULD ALL CARRY SAME WEIGHT IN TC RACE.

jshandler,

Are you saying that Rachel is faster than the colts based on Beyers...because her splits in The Oaks are SLOWER on a fast Churchill strip than the colts ran the next day on "peanut butter"?  Until the mile.

Her time in The Oaks to the 3/4 mark was a length and a half back of where the colts were the next day. After running a mile in both of their respective races, both she and Mine That Bird were on the lead.  Her time was about 4 lengths better to the mile than MTB, but what about the track?  

What about the pace?

What about the trip?

My partners and I hit the trifectas on Oaks day and Derby day.  Just remember the old adage...never bet an overwhelming favorite trying something for the first time!

Rachel has 4 new hurdles to surmount, and a proven nemesis:

1) best field she's ever faced,

  and they're colts to boot;

2) biggest field she's ever faced

3) longest distance she's ever run;

4) first time at Pimlico

Nemesis:

Wheeled back in 2 weeks...a proven problem for HER historically. This

doesn't necessarily apply to any other horse.  It has not been shown to be a major problem for others, probably because they have been managed better!  

I'm not saying she can't win, but with these considerations, I would leave emotion out of it and bet on others!

Remember, Baffert hated the 12/13 holes so much that he scratched Silverbulletday, who had a front-running style similar to RA. Remember, too, how Woody Stephens gave up Forty Niner's chance at a Preakness win to deny it to Winning Colors, and how everyone ganged up on Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Expect RA to be floated very wide. Though she may prove to be a great filly, at this point in her career she has accomplished less than Silverbulletday did at a comparable point.  

Here you go!

                RA

             MM,PC,TTP

               GQ,T

Mat,

 Rachel ran a 0 in the Fantasy. She actually ran a -4 in the Oaks. If you follow the rags then these numbers indicate there is a serious chance of a bounce.

I think Rachel Alexandra is a freak of nature, and I never bet against them...like Ghostzapper. I think second is wide open, but based on pp patterns, I like Friesan Fire and Big Drama. Speaking of freaks of nature, have you all ever noticed that the all-time best athletes in different sports are freaks of nature....Of course Secretariat's freak heart, Phelps double joints...after being examined by a doctor, Pele was shown to have peripheral vision more than two times better than the average person.

My picks:

1)Big Drama

2)Rachel Alexandra

3)Mine That Bird

4)Friesan Fire

Take The Points figures to be a pace factor and could surprise by hanging tuff for a show spot.

General Quarters could pull off an upset win.  His in and out performance pattern suggests that he could strike here if good enough to overcome BD and RA.

Papa Clem's best chance at an upset win is to try wiring the field and gutting it out with challengers down the stretch.

Musket Man hasn't faltered yet so based upon his consistency he really should be in with a winning shot(no pun intended)from off the pace.  

Pioneerof The Nile is a tough and gutsy campaigner but his limitation was somewhat exposed in the Derby and he was lucky to deny MM the runner-up spot.  His best strategy could be to relax early and charge at the front runners from further back.  

Terrain should have gone after the Lone Star Derby.

For sheer quality, pre-race drama and excitement, this is the race of the year.  May the best thoroughbred come out on top and above all, let us ENJOY.

RA is going to show the WORLD just how weak these colts really are. Nothing but a bunch of pretenders. Bet the house on a RA/BD exacta.

Go with the horses who have been toughened up in the Derby. The feeling here is that Papa Clem sits behind a torrid pace and runs them all down in the stretch.

jshandler,

Thanks...I certainly don't want to "clog a blog" with idiotic or demeaning opinions.  I noticed that you didn't answer my question though...why do you think Rachel is soooo much faster than these colts?  She's beaten some fillies handily, but who are they?  These colts are a different story.

And Beyer's Speed Figs have been increasingly off.  Especially for PREDICTING how well a runner will perform doing something for the first time.  Stone Legacy ran 2nd in The Grade 1 KY Oaks with the worst Beyers in the field.  Mine That Bird won The KY Derby with the worst Beyers in the field.  Did you notice how many horses have come out of The Sunland Derby to win stakes next out?  Reflective of a systematic error in the method.  

The short answer to my pick is this...I bet to make money, not to say "I had the winner".  Making money and picking winners are two different things.  If I see a race set up where others really like a horse or two, and I don't (like The Derby) I will box the horses that I like.  I call it a "weenie box wager".  I am not good enough to say, "Oh, I think Pioneerof The Nile will come 2nd to Mine That Bird, and just beat Musket Man a nose."  I'm just not that good.  But I boxed all three of those horses in a tri, with Papa Clem too.  We have a system based on horse conformation and our backgrounds in genetics that allowed us to winnow this year's KY Derby field down to 9 contenders, with 10 pretenders.  Friesan Fire did NOT make our list.  Neither did General Quarters.  Don't get me wrong, they are good horses.  They just aren't 10 furlong, dirt early Spring material compared to the others.  

The top 6 finishers in the Derby DID make our list.  And we think Join In The Dance ran really well...he outran our analysis of him I can tell you that.  

I like to bet trifectas and superfectas.  I NEVER bet pick 4's or pick 6's...I think they are suckers' bets, but good on those who bet them!  Tri's and super's, they are a different story.

I guess I can't PROVE that we hit the trifecta in both the Oaks and Derby, because I'm not going to give you our account info!  But we breed and race too.  Here's something you can check.  I will be named as co-breeder of a Yonaguska colt out of a Street Cry mare.  He was born April 13th. We knew Yonaguska could get good runners at 8-10 furlongs...he has Musket Man and Earth Living this year as living proof.  And just look at MM's conformation and stride.  

And I am part owner of four mares that we booked to Birdstone back in February.  Two mares were in foal with heart beats before the Derby, one was bred last Sunday, and one is going to him later.  

There's more than one way to make money in this game, and we put our money where our theories are, be it wagering or breeding!  Check that out!  

If you held a gun to my head, I would tell you that I would box (yes I know, we call it a "weenie wager" for a reason!) Mine That Bird, Musket Man, POTN, Papa Clem, Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra in a super.  But I don't like the potential ROI for a bet like that in The Preakness...it usually only makes sense in The KY Derby, where the $1 supers have averaged over $100,000 over the last ten years.

a view from europe/blighty. this has got to be the race of the decade. I am so looking forward to this race. the first four home in the kentucky derby, an exceptional filly, some have mentioned big drama. and a chance for friesan fire to redeem himself. fantastic stuff. so often, the preakness is, well, not such a great race but this time around everyone has turned up and they are all gunning for revenge on possibly dryish ground. have seen mine that bird in the kentucky derby and rachel in the oaks. both magnificent but thought the filly looked better and pon might have won the kd on dry ground.

enjoy watching it. unfortunately I won't get to see it as I live in a country that has no interest whatsoever in horse racing. but I will catch it on you tube later.    

Jason,

    Great Analysis on the race, I can't argue with anything, But I will bet big on Friesan Fire, He is my favorite and maybe betting a little more with my heart rather then logic, but so be it, If he gets a clean ride, he will be there at the end, May the best horse win on that day, Should be the most exciting Preakness in recent memory...

    The Big deal to me on the two weeks for RA isn't the time period but all of her changes in those two weeks, I just think a new owner, new barn, NEW TRAINER cannot be overlooked, that is alot for a horse, male or female, to go through, But we will see...

     Good Luck to all, and first and foremost, hope it is clean and they all return safely...

Jason speaking of numbers, the sheets boys are looking for the filly to bounce, and I agree...not me at 8/5 or worse...Gotta give F "square" another shot...jones too good to toss this colt back in. Like Stute runner a bit...he's a trier, and the guy that will be runnin late at a nice number is Terrain...you spoke of Prado being the Maryland master, well Jeremy Rose would love to show them who's boss now!...5-6-7 box 'em!

Here is the thing if you liked the horses before the derby you have to like them after the derby if your gut says take PC or musket man than go for it. Personally besided my boy BD look at the derby again looks like papa was spinning his wills in the the thick mud.

Draynay,

 You state that Rachel is going to show the world how weak this group of colts really are. And after she does this, Ruffian is  supposed to move over. I am starting to believe that you make these idiotic statements because you enjoy all the backlash and must be starved for attention. It is the only reason that I can see for making so many asinine statements.

 Jason,

 I also think Rachel is the best horse on paper, but I can't bet her at less than 2-1. There are too many good horses in this race to accept those kind of odds. If she beats me, she beats me. It won't be the first time I got beat by a favorite that I felt was vulnerable. I have not made up my mind how I will bet, but I still like POTN.

Draynay,

 By the way, can I bet YOUR house on the RA/BD exacta?

Amy, we're in agreement.  I don't think she should get 5 pounds.  If she gets that for 1 and 3/16 miles then how much should an Arab mare get in a 100-mile endurance race?  However, it won't break my heart to see her win.  I was at the Oaks and it was a stirring performance.

whoa...Gary, did you say you hit the tri on Derby day...could you possibly indulge me on how you came up with the Canadian horse on your ticket...you and your partners should be "lined" for awhile[and proud]

LOLOLOLOLL Daynay you just solidified my opinion of you as a completley oblivious. Move over Ruffian??? To play horses well you have to know your history, and if you know anything about ... anything you'd know Ruffian went undefeated and was never asked for her best. R.A. has not only been beaten - she's not even in the same league as Go For Wand who was the closest any filly has ever come to Ruffian. So as you're hailing her as your greatest ever (aka your Big Brown LMAO) knew Zenyatta hasn't been beaten, and R.A. might win Saturday against lesser competition - i have no doubt in my mind about that , but she won't win against an undefeated freak like Zen. Educate yourself before you make obnoxious statements.

Jason,

As far as Beyers go, leave out the Derby, and tell me who would have picked the "Bird"? No one, not even me.

Go to the Dosage, and he didn't even fit. (Though those numbers are being reworked). Until this past Derby I was a big dosage fan, still will consider but not with the same orthodoxy.

No single mathematical formula is the magic bullet. (Constantly I get reminded of this when I forget this fact). When we get fixated on the numbers we loose sight of the all the other factors that contribute to a winning horse. One can not throw out or use a horse based only on numbers.

To use a set of numbers as proof,  prior to the experiment (race), is not logical, and gives an image that is only an illusion. Numbers can only be used as proof after the experiment (race), to prove or disprove a theory (result).

Best with your picks, as posted, may we see a great-safe race.

Kevin  

Handicapping 101 allowed for Dunkirk (no foundation) and FF (7 week layoff) to be tossed in the Derby.  A similar strategy would be to toss the girl.  How good is Dunkirk?  The press told us he was unbeatable.  How good is FF? The press told us he was faster than all.  How good is the girl? Better than Ruffian?  Then bet her. I'm taking the proven horses right back.  POTN, Papa Clem, Musket Man...just looking for the 4th to round out the super.  

nickie,

Sure thing.  First off, forget about Beyers.  Second, the horses going into The KY Derby are being asked to go a distance that most are not bred for.  Find the horses that are bred top and bottom for the distance, and for this early in life.  

This is usually a small group.  And of those, there are some that are rounding into form, some that are rounding BACK into form, and some that have already peaked.

Mine That Bird was rounding back into form.

Mine That Bird is by Birdstone out of a Smart Strike mare, so the breeding was obviously there.  Birdstone has everything we look for in a classic sire (speed that develops early in the 3 year old year [not A.P. Indy, no matter how much we love him...he's 0 for 919], and speed that carries the 10 - 12 furlongs).  At Derby time, Birdstone had 25 runners, and three of these runners were entered in the spring classics. That said a lot to us.  They ended up 1st, 2nd and a closing 6th!

Back to Mine That Bird.  He was a multiple stakes winner, and a graded stakes winner.  I watched his Borderland Derby, which was his first race off a layoff, and his first race on dirt.  He made a big move, and dueled gamely down the lane, and got out finished.  Very nice effort.

His next race, his jock made a big, bold move again, but waaaay too early.  He hit the front at the top of the lane, and was passed...but he kept trying.

The KY Derby was his third off a layoff.  He had the class.  He had the breeding.  He had the grit.  And I loved his gallop out from his work at Churchill...very strong, and all on his own.  His knock was that he had low Beyers, and was coming from New Mexico.  We said "so what?" to both of those.  All the west coast horses had low Beyers.  Didn't seem to bother POTN!  I don't think he had a 100+ Beyer going into the race either. We quit using Beyers years ago.  

Breeding is key.  These colts are asked to go 10 furlongs in the Derby...not 4...not 8.5...and not 9.  That last furlong weeds out a lot of well bred horses!

And by the way...watch out for Summer Bird in The Belmont...and Birdstone runners in years to come!

I don't know who will win the Preakness but I am rooting for Rachel Alexandra and for Mine That Bird.  I think that Mine That Bird being a lighter horse who seems to have a huge heart and a giant set of lungs (does he have any other organs in that body of his?) might be the only horse that could catch Rachel Alexandra rain or shine.  She might have been slower in the Oaks than the colts in the Derby but she wasn't going all out like they were either.

I hope they all finish safe and sound.  I cannot wait, this is going to be exciting!

I would love to see RA win but I think inspite of the fact that she may be the best horse out there right now, we are asking alot. She has had plenty of change in her life lately so that may effect her performance. I am thinking she isn't going to win this one. I would love to be wrong.

Laugh all you want Lady Ruffian but Rachel is undefeated as a 3 year old and winning the Oaks and then the Preakness will forever make her a legend.  Should she win her next 3 or 4 races she may be considered one of the all time greats.  As great as Ruffian was she never beat the boys. Rachel is poised to do things no filly has ever done.

In The Derby, Calvin Borel did his magic with Mine That Bird, superb ride. This week all the talk has been about Rachel Alexandra entering the Preakness.

Don't be surprised if you see Eibar Coa take Musket Man right to the front. Musket Man has the speed, stamina & pedigree to go gate to wire. Rachel and Pioneerof The Nile will be battling for 2nd & 3rd.

   The Preakness will be a totally different race than theKY Derby ! All of the classy horses such as Quality Road ,I Want Revenge and Old Fashioned ,Square Eddie , Were injured ! So Ithink the Derby was real easy for Mine That Bird !!!! Im rooting for RA !!!

Take the Points for my win.

Mine That Bird

Pioneer of the Nile

RA

superfecta box as of now.  :)

Central Valley Dame

Love your post. :)

Gary

Looks like you and Greg are on the same page.  Yeah let's make sure we pay attention to those Birds. :)

I'm picking RA to win-she has real class.  MM to place.  It would be very ironic if MTB won the Triple Crown, being a gelding.  Stranger things have happened.  Godspeed to all.  Safe trip to all.  And let the best GIRL win.

 ''Big Drama''Kentucky Derby winner versus Kentucky Oaks winner.

In this case I think I will side with the Oaks winner.

Rachel Alexandra to win, her Oaks win didn't seem to take anything out of her so 2 weeks shouldn't be a problem. Beside Rags to Riches was the first filly to win the Belmont in 100+years so why not 85yrs.  Papa Clem is really over looked in this race if I could get 12-1 I would bet him, he finished a head behind POTN and Musket Man (who are at 1/2 the price) and their was some diffente interference.

The jockeys will be watching out for MTB this time. It just may be that they will be so busy trying to block the filly, he will sneak through, even with a jockey who doesn't necessarily go the rail route like Borel. I have watched MTB's past races on youtube, and he is a versatile runner.

Pioneerof the Nile still can't get no respect. I like the filly but feel that it will be Pioneerof the Nile, Rachel Alexander, Papa Clem, Take the Points. Or we could all be wrong and it will be Fresian Fire by two.

The only thing that I can agree with is the IF factor draynay. IF R.A. does beat the boys & win her next few starts, she will in fact go down as a great. But anointing her before her time is foolish. Ruffian didn't win, she broke the hearts of her competition because not a single horse could pass her. She refused to settle for 2nd at any point, ever. R.A. may be undefeated as a three year old, but she does know what it is to loose. Zenyatta doesn't. To truly go down as a great, R.A. would need to dethrone Big Z.... it won't happen. Rachel is exciting to watch, but she's not the best to look through a bridle. I hope that she carves a place in history for herself... I'd like to see a filly take a H.O.T.Y.

In Steve Haskin's column he describes RA as being "antsy" and having to change stalls before saddling her. Sounds like she settling in just fine.

This is shaping up to be a very good race IMO. There are quite a few who can win this. I think RA will win, but i love the way this set up for POTN. With a hot pace that is very likely to take place, he can finally take back again and make that late move, which is when he's most effective. I think he will definitly be there in the end.

Lady Ruffian,

    I beg to differ, RA will whip Zen. Zen can't close into speed like RA's. This filly ran her last furlong in the Oaks in 12 flat, and almost got the record, and she too did it w/o being asked normal horses don't do that, only freaks, and Zen won't be able to touch this filly when they meet, i can garuntee you.

now  what if  she wins both the PS AND THE BS would,  she be a triple crown winner , with  the oaks being her derby . kinda like  they  do in  the UK.

BYE

I'm not going to dismiss PON in this one. I think he's going to run another good race. We'll finally find out what FF is really made of and BD could steal the show. I like one of those 3 to pull off the upset. RA is a tough filly but I want some value so I'll play against her. She'll be in my pick 4 hoping to snatch a couple mid-range to longshots there. Somewhere in the bottom of the exotics I see either Take The Points or Flying Private sneaking in. As for MTB I see him bouncing all over the track like a superball. 81-105? That's got the look of some serious bounce.

You heard it here first: General Quarters will win the Preakness.

Gary:

Thank you for your informative and interesting post.

Zookeeper:

Couldnt agree with you more!

Jason,

I like your thoughts on Big Drama, and believe he warrants the choice as the longshot play.  

However, as a Preakness follower, there are certain simple patterns that contrast with your analysis.  First, the Derby field was decidely weak with the departure of the two probable favorites (maybe the worst since Linkage),  As such, the only reasonable thing to do is take the results on its merits, i.e. that the one horse that was running in the stretch, MTB, moved ahead of a weak group.  Making excuses for derby failures rarely results in Preakness profits - this is not claiming races. Toss the derby runnerups.  Second, enjoy that the derby winner will pay a price, this is historically a rare opportunity.  Lastly, the filly is every bit as good as these boys, and a winner, and deserving.  The reasonable play; the top two, MTB & RA, with Big Drama as the longshot play, box them at will.  Big Drama fits the Preakness profile, fresh speed (Deputed Testamony, Aloma's Ruler) for an upset.

But, how different it would be if we had the class of the boys in the race, IWR or Quality Road?  Then, we would think differently about the race, and the filly.

Good luck to all.

AMY ROONEY 14 May 2009 11:42 AM

Amy, you seem to be under the impression that Thoroughbreds are anything like Quarter Horses.  The fact is, TB's are bred for quick turn around times between races whereas a QH is built for ranch work or rodeos.  Two entirely different breeds that you can not fairly compare.  Jess Jackson & Steve Asmussen would never have put her into the Preakness if they both did not feel she was 100% ready for it, there are other races she could've faced the boys in if she wasn't.  I trust Jess & Steve's opinions, they did a fantastic job with Curlin and I believe they will do the same with Rachel.  Steve is one of the nicest trainers I have ever met!  Unlike Big Brown's connections a year ago, Jess & Steve do what is best for the horse and not for themselves (otherwise known as running Big Brown continually with quarter cracks and chastising Kent Desormeaux for pulling Big Brown up when he felt something was wrong with him in the Belmont; no jockey would've felt secure knowing that the horse had a history of pretty bad quarter cracks and then in a race was not acting like his normal self).  

Regardless, you can't compare Thoroughbreds to Quarter Horses.  They are not in the same catergory.  It'd be like comparing apples to a zuchinni.  

I would like to see RA win, but if it's an off track I'm not sure she will. She has been through too many changes as well. I hope all of them have a safe trip. My picks are 1.POTN 2.MM 3.RA

RA

BD, POTN, MM

BD, POTN, MM, GQ, MTB, FF

That is a reasonable tri bet. I can not see anyone beating RA if she just runs her race. BD may try to steal it, but she will have too much left. Also, as far as a bounce, the Oaks was like a $500,000 workout. She has not been asked to run since last year, so she is plenty fresh. She won the Oaks in a gallop, and cold of won by more if Calvin wasn't playing solitaire on his I-phone down the stretch.

Saturday will be Calvin's "deliverance". The man from the backwoods will "ride" his mount all the way to nowhere.

I wasn't going to comment on this blog until I saw the photo of Rachel schooling in the paddock.  It's with the Thursday Preakness roundup.  Her mane is done in the little knots like the Asmussen barn always does, and her white-rimmed "evil eye" (like Gallant Fox had) is facing the camera.  She looks like she is going to eat the other horses alive!!  To me it is definitely one of those photos that's worth a thousand words.

I like RA.  she had a fantastic win in the Oaks and I think she can do it.  I like FF to up there probably 2nd.  MTB was a big surprise and he could do it again, but I think 3rd.

Someone help me out with the "logic" of some of these posts.

These Derby colts are mediocre.  

Mine That Bird was a fluke who only ran so well because of the wet track/golden rail/the ride...or all of the above...but he only beat a mediocre field of colts anyway.

If Rachel beats these colts though, she's great...

What???  

Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner, a graded stakes winner, and a champion before The Derby.  Why isn't he great?  Who has Rachel beaten (little to nothing so far), and what were the splits in those races (nothing that lays over these colts' prep races)?

What, prey tell, will some of you say if she loses - as I think she will - to one or more of these mediocre colts?  

Man I love parimutuel wagering!

Think RA will win this in a stretch duel with MDB.  She will shake off MDB when it matters most. RA will rate well and will be finishing like a ton of bricks. Borel will have plenty horse at the end. MDB will be off the pace early but will be coming at them in the end.  Dream about this for the future, RA, Zenyatta and Zarkava (Europe)..what a race for the girls..dream on.

I like the filly but not here, I like BD and MM with PON with an outside chance. On the bottom I'll take PC,RA,MTB,GQ and TTP.

LDP - I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Zenyatta - I'm not undermining Rachel's accomplishments ... what I'm saying is i do believe that she won't be able to hold on for a win when Zenyatta comes tearing down the stretch. Anyway - lets get past the preakness first. Hope they all get back safe.

Zenyatta's performance against Hysterical Lady in the Lady Secret is her best performance to date "catching speed."  Here is how she did it in setting the stakes record with Hysterical Lady setting the pace.

24.26

48.32

111.45

134.39

140.30

Here are Zenyatta's splits

24 4/5

23 4/5

23 1/5

22 3/5

last 1/16 ran in 6 seconds.

RA's mile run in the Martha Washington was 111.99 for six.  She would have to shave this down to Winning Colors time (109 and change) to loose Zenyatta.  

Pam S.

   Do you have the link to that Picture of RA?, Thanks...

    Really, This race should be incredible but No clue what will happen, I am not going to pretend like some people about guaranteed locks, Impossible to pick...

   My top four Boxes(Even though I hope Fire takes it home!)...

Friesan Fire, Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Take the Points...

Should be Great...

A few thoughts on the Preakness. After the Derby, I noticed that only horses who won the majority of lifetime starts and who were in one of the few historically best post positions were in the money. So I'm looking only at those two factors for the Preakness. Only Big Drama, Mine That Bird, Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile and Rachel Alexandra have won the majority of their lifetime starts. Post positions from the 9 hole inward have produced the most Preakness winners since 1940.

Mine That Bird is the legitimate favorite, even though he won't go off the favorite. I don't think his Derby was a fluke. It was the classic third race back off a layoff angle. He first race back was a good effort. His race before the Derby was so-so, although the internal fractions were good. We all overlooked him because he didn't race in any of the big-name Derby preps. If he doesn't "bounce," I see no reason why he can't repeat.

Rachel Alexandra is a beautiful filly who would tug at the heartstrings of anyone who loves horses. It would be something of a fairy tale if she wins. But I have to pick against her for several reasons.

Pioneerof the Nile is as honest as the day is long. He always gives it his best. Unfortunately, the current forecast calls for rain on Saturday afternoon, and I'm not sure that's going to work in his favor despite his 2nd place Derby finish. Still, he's going to be a good price here. Baffert knows what he's doing and the colt looks splendid from all accounts.

People who didn't like Friesan Fire before the Derby due to his 7-week freshener, and never having a race at 1 1/8 miles, should not like Big Drama for the same reasons. I'm very suspicious of any Gulfstream Park prep race this year, so don't place much emphasis on his track record. He's taking a huge step up in class here. Still, he looks like a really talented colt. He'll probably have to go for the lead early due to his post position. If he can get a clear, easy lead, and if his trainer has the colt fit enough to get 1 3/16m, he could wire the field. I don't think he will, though.

Musket Man is another really honest trier. Got to respect him. However, I didn't like what I read of his work at Monmouth. For the umpteeth time, I wish we had videos of all of the contenders' works so I could see the them for myself. It's listed as "handily" instead of "breezing." Not ideal, but without eyes on, all "handily" is, is a word.

A note about my personal favorite 3-year-old, Friesan Fire. I'm not a fan of how he's being trained. So I don't believe he'll win. However, I'm nuts about the colt and hope I'm completely wrong.

Greg J.,

I am very low-tech so don't do links... but the photo is right on the front page of the Blood Horse site, you can't miss it.  

It's embarrassing, but I haven't had a job, where most baby boomers get their computer skills, since 2001, and I can't do ANYTHING.  I'm lucky I can post on this blog.

TO:ANTI DRAYNAY

Two points for you! One,no horse is a "bum",just some people get that distinction. Also,I respect Big Drama,but he will use himself up Saturday. RA for the homerun!

Steve S:  The Fair Grounds track saw Terrain, Papa Clem, Rachel and Fresian Fire.  Larry and Cindy have a place there.  The track and facilities is one of the nicest I have ever seen and I've seen a few.  Go ahead throw out RA, FF, Papa, and Terrain...(based on a snooty prejeduce) we'll talk Monday after I go to the bank.

MUSKET MAN,PIONEER OF THE NILE, and FERISAN FIRE is who im boxing. you can keep your 8-5 on the filly because she's gunna bounce higher then a spalldine spoungeball!! musket man is finnaly going to get his race setup and ill be smiling at 10-1 or higher.

I think your analysis is very good since I am betting similar horses except for pioneer on top WE HAVENT SEEN HIM RUN ON DRY FAST TRACK AS BAFFERT STATED THIS WEEK IF HE EXPLODES LIKE I WANT REVENGE WAVE BYBY TO FILLY

sung like (candy man) sammie davis jr.  who can win the preakness...smash it in style!!..run his little hooves off, and make his jockey smile..the MUSKET MAN..ohh the musket man can..the MUSKET MAN can cause he runs his little hooves off and makes it all look good!! lmao  GO!! MUSKY GO!!

Gary you've sold me on Mine that Bird[and I now believe he'll run well in the Preakness...he is a gelding, and they are for the most part in my opine more consistant than colts]...I am not a Beyer guy[numbers that is, I love Andy's books]...after all this is an art[handicapping] and not a science]...if the filly wins, I will tip my hat, but think of it like this...post 13...I don't care what the connections say, she is either going to be used early to get a decent position, floated wide and lose all chance on those turns, or drop back and hope for a "Bo rail" ride...I don't see it at 7/5. Ask yourself how many times have you cashed with the number 13 on your ticket on 2 turn races...she runs without the burden of my quid!

The biggest concern with RA is position down the lane the first time. I think there are 5-6 horses inside of her who may try to be near the pace, so early positioning will be hard.

I haven't looked too deep into the race, but look out for Fresian Fire, his derby was ruined due to a collision right out of the gate, but he'll prob be in perfect position to pounce in the final 3/8's.

As far as MTB, I'm just not sold that he can win again, there was nothing to indicate he should have run that well in the Derby. If he wins, my hat off to him, but I just don't see it happening again.

Gary... What are you talking about?

THE FLUKE is a multiple Graded Stakes winner before the Derby ? In your dreams.   The horse is a fluke and tomorrow will prove it.  The horses RA is facing are average not including BD who is being asked to go a couple of hundred yards longer than he wants to.  RA runs away from the very average group and becomes one of the greatest fillies ever.

Draynay: MTB IS a multiple Graded Stakes winner. No dream bro,just fact.

I BETTER NOT THROW OUT TERRAN HE RAN IN BREEDERS CUP JUV.TWO HORSES FROM THAT RACE HAVE WON GRADE ONES  MINE THAT BIRD AND PIONEER OF THE NILE. MAYBE ITS TERRAIN TURN TO WIN A GRADE ONE RACE. ON ANOTHER NOTE THE PACE IN DELTA JACKPOT WAS SUPer SUPER FAST.THAT FILLY HAS GOOD FINAL TIME BUT SHE BETTER LEARN TO RATE RATE.the pace belongs to big drama even without the blinkers,

Wanda, I don't think you can call MTB a "multiple graded stakes winner".  He has won a total of TWO graded stakes, one in Toronto as a 2 year old and the Derby.  Multiple implies more than 4 wins.  His KD win was nothing more than a fluke.  

big brown was also a super horse..or did we all forget the belmont?? (BIG BOUNCE BROWN)..horses that are asked to do too much, not alone traveling,and two weeks rest off a 20 lenth romp.plus now going against the boy's is a very taxing task.seen it too many times before. is it really worth 8-5? the bridges are going to full on preakness day!

Gary 15 May 2009 12:49 PM: <snipped> Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner, a graded stakes winner, and a champion before The Derby.  Why isn't he great?  Who has Rachel beaten (little to nothing so far), and what were the splits in those races (nothing that lays over these colts' prep races)?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Really?  A multiple graded stakes winner?  2 graded stakes wins does not mean he is a MULTIPLE graded stakes winner.  He is a fluke.  Simple as that.  In fact, here is his record from ntra.com

Date Purse Race Name Track Grade Finish

05/02/09 $2M Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Churchill Downs 1 1

03/29/09 $800K Sunland Derby Sunland Park  4

02/28/09 $100K Borderland Derby Sunland Park  2

10/25/08 $2M Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Oak Tree At Santa Anita 1 12

10/05/08 $250K Grey S. Woodbine 3 1

09/14/08 $150K Swynford S. Woodbine  1

08/23/08 $100K Silver Deputy S. Woodbine  1

08/04/08 $41.1K Maiden Claiming Woodbine  1

07/20/08 $66K Maiden Special Weight Woodbine  5

Your comments about Rachel Alexandra below:

Gary 15 May 2009 12:49 PM <snipped> Who has Rachel beaten (little to nothing so far), and what were the splits in those races (nothing that lays over these colts' prep races)?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

She's beaten Four Gifts, the filly that won the Eight Belles Stakes.  She's beaten Just Jenda who was the favorite in the Eight Belles Stakes.  She's beaten every filly that has tried to overthrow her and I believe when it comes time, she will defeat Stardom Bound (my favorite filly) as well as Zenyatta, not to mention all the boys in the race tomorrow, including your precious fluke, Mine That Bird.  Compare the two horses on their stats, Rachel's are below.  The results speak for themselves, RA is the better horse.

Racing Career:  

Date Purse Race Name Track Grade Finish

05/01/09 $500K Kentucky Oaks Churchill Downs 1 1

04/05/09 $250K Fantasy S. Oaklawn Park 2 1

03/14/09 $400K Fair Grounds Oaks Fair Grounds 2 1

02/15/09 $50K Martha Washington S. Oaklawn Park  1

11/29/08 $150K Golden Rod S. Churchill Downs 2 1

11/01/08 $100K Pocahontas S. Churchill Downs 3 2

10/17/08 $52K Allowance Keeneland  1

06/28/08 $100K Debutante S. Churchill Downs 3 2

06/13/08 $41.4K Maiden Special Weight Churchill Downs  1

05/22/08 $41.4K Maiden Special Weight Churchill Downs  6

Right again Jason. He was a Cdn Graded Stakes winner before the Derby as well as Stakes placed.

I stand corrected Draynay, I should have read it twice.

Rechelle: I'd be careful who you call a fluke cause every time you bad mouth him, you move him up 5 lengths.Have you ever heard an old timer say that?

Rechelle: Chill out girl.At the end of the day it don't matter either way.

Everyone knows where to find me... you FLUKE lovers come here and let me know when the FLUKE wins a GRADED STAKES of any kind EVER again.  Lol... I will wait....

For those of you betting against RA I have one thing to say. HAA HAA HAA

suckers !

Just when you try to be nice......

where you gunna spend your 20 cents wanda? lol

hey Dray how did Dunkirk do in the derby what happened to 2nd up for the track record. Your horse Dunkirk was a straight bum! Draynay=Chalk=Never wins. Papa Clem & Big Drama people wake up! The people that want MTB to win better pray for rain tomorrow!

Rachel Alexandra is the BEST racehorse in America, if she does not win the Preakness stakes, I'll eat my hat

Musket Man should definately show up; he has never been out of the money yet and he just worked a half mile in 46 seconds in the last week

DO NOT IGNORE THIS HORSE

Rechelle and Wanda, you two Canadian girls should have been all over Mine That Bird before the derby giving us the scoop!  Just kidding... but seriously is the Canadian 2-yr old champ title of any value, since it really was never brought up much?  I do remember that the champion filly from Canada did run second to Forever Together in the BC female turf.  Haskin says MTB is training better than ever, in fact, he is now "floating" over the surface.  I think he will probably do ok tomorrow.  Also, he trains 2 miles every day.  Does anyone out there know is that standard proceedure for all the top horses? Or is that unique to MTB?

    Just a reminder everyone, Whoever Dray picks, Pick the complete opposite, He puts a jinx on whoever he picks, I feel bad for Rachel Alexandra, She now has the Dray Curse. SO, with that being said, It must be "Luv Gov" to win the Preakness, lol...

    Even funnier, The two horses he beats up the most, Friesan Fire and Mine that Bird, Now, I am dreaming of a dead heat for those two!!!, Then Dray will come back here and say Two Flukes won the Preakness, lol....

TO:ANTI DRAYNAY

Maybe you were watching the Derby from Mars or something,but Dunkirk stumbled badly leaving the gate!

How did Dunkirk do ? Lol... better then your horse did.  As everyone knows many of us had to pick 3 or 4 deep because "our" horses were not in the race or got hurt.  Maybe you had a saver bet on the FLUKE but I did not.  Let me know how betting against RA works out for you....

Draynay-your comments about MTB and some of the other horses are tasteless and nasty.  Everyone is sick and tired of reading your crap!!  

Jason I actually like your live longshot Big Drama 10-1 but why are the blinkers coming off?  Let him roll.  He certainly is capable of matching RA's 1:11-1:12 and change.  Papa Clem may be winging it as well.  May be too much for RA.  

POTN

Papa Clem

Musket Man

Big Drama

Super

E.COA had a choice in the derby to ride GENERAL QUARTERS, in the preakness he also had the choice of rideing BIG DRAMA,by him picking MUSKET MAN twice speaks volumes for this horse. his tracking speed makes him a huge spoiler to run down the speed late in the preakness. i can hear tom durkin now echoing at pimlico: OH NO!! NOT TODAY FOR THE FILLY!! (HUGE BOUNCE CANDIDATE) just look at HERO"S REWARD who ran today a beaten HORSE by a horse he beat MR NITELINGER. 1- MUSKET MAN  2-PIONEER OF THE NILE 3- FERISAN FIRE 4-BIG DRAMA

Take The Points as of Friday night.  Things could change.  

With

Mine That Bird

Big Drama

Pioneer of the Nile

Blockborail

The turns at Pimlico are exactly the same as they are at Churchill- not tighter. They will not be a disadvantage for Calvin. If he has the horse (filly) he will win again.

Caneycreek

Pioneer's gonna show up tom.....

I think Rachel Alexandra wins this race, without a doubt.

After her will come Mine that Bird, LUV GOV, and Musket Man.

Hope you all bet your homes on RA as draynay suggest that will make me more money then i care to have, RA will bounce and the Bird isnt flyinging tomorrow. The exata will be GQ and FF with pon to complete the tri.

Speedball

Don't read it.  When you see the name scroll on by. :) It works wonders.  

Your right Speedball what am I thinking... I am sure I am the only one on the planet that thinks the FLUKE is a FLUKE.

I have said Big Drama is the real deal but the rest of these are very average horses like it or not. Look Speedball... if I said something nasty that you didn't like, let me know what I said so I can say it again.

if there is an off-track for the preakness there could be 4 horses that are probably going to be double digit odds that could hit the board.

Jason, I'm sorry.  Just to me, Mine That Bird shouldn't be being called a multiple stakes winner when the only 3 reasons he won are: Calvin Borel, Freisan Fire getting hurt and I Want Revenge being scratched.  Well that and the fact that Pioneerof The Nile had never raced on dirt, much less a sloppy track.  The fact that he hadn't won anything this season and that he came in dead last in BC Juvenile makes me believe even more that the win was a fluke.  I normally root for the KD winner to win the rest of them, but in this case, I just don't believe he has the talent to win against Rachel Alexandra, a healthy Freisan Fire or Pioneerof The Nile, now that POTN has run on an off track.  The fact that Calvin Borel opted off him in favor of RA makes me think that even he doesn't believe MTB has a chance to win the Preakness.  I think the jockey change will also hurt MTB, going to a jockey that has never ridden him before.  MTB's trainers should have had Mike Smith ride him this week after it became clear that Borel was on RA, instead of having RA ride him during training sessions.

Helsbells: No, the Canadian 2yo champion really doesn't make much difference to me, since to me, most of the talented Canadian 2yos raced in the States at one point or another and placed better than MTB did.  MTB won 4 races last season, but 1 was a maiden, 1 was an allowance and 2 were stakes races that I think had little to no competition for him.  When he came to the States for the BC Juvenile and faced more talented horses, he failed to do anything but come in last.

Today's the big day!

Here's to a fantastic race, and hoping everyone comes back safe & sound!

GO RACHEL! I think she can do it!!!!!

I would point to her last effort in '08 Jason she did after all win, but not without getting "rapped" pretty good by Calvin! Like you stated "there are so many variables[rather redundant, don't you think?!...lol], but given the variables why mess with a 7/5 shot[you know the "kiddies" will be lined up for the souvenir tickets] we all remember Smarty Jones...don't be too dissappointed if you see Calvin tuck her safely away[see Big Brown] and be out of the exotics! If I may qote the legend Harvey Pack.." no  man alive has ever paid a maortgage at 7/5!"...a safe run for all, and look for Terrain to give a huge effort!

helsbelles: In answer to your question does 2yr old Champ have any meaning. Sure it does in any country. Not only the mare you mentioned but Fatal Bullet who ran second to Midnight Lute in the Sprint did most of their running at Woodbine. He was named Canada's Horse of the Year last year.

My point was that to dis the Derby winner uncalled for. Regardless if he never wins another one he is still the 09 Derby winner. He's a better horse than some give him credit for. I'm not on his bandwagon per say I just think that the horse should have more respect than he gets.

And no I did not have him Derby day but my friend did, and I bet 5$ across for him. He took me out for supper after I gave him the 457$.

Actually, before the Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird had one a single stakes race, so before the Derby he was not a multiple stakes winner.  If 2 wins consitutes a "multiple stakes winner" than I guess he is, but before the Derby, he won a sole stakes race and if the other horses would've run, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, etc, then Mine That Bird would never have had the earnings to be in the Derby.  That's something else to think about ....

I am in for $800.00 on the filly.

I was really rooting for MTB because I thought the little guy would win it, but when Rachel hit the top of the stretch I have to admit I yelled for her. Hella horse.

And can we now put to rest the whole Mine That Bird was a fluke crap.

POTN really disappointed. I thought he would be in the money.

Good for Musket Man.

Yes, I will do as i promised and admit, in MTB's case i was wrong. The horse ran a bang up second, to what will be a great filly. I will say when MTB didn't get the rail, and the slop i thought he was done for, well i obiviously slipped up big time on that call. I never doubted his heart, but i never in my wildest dreams thought he was talented enough. I thought he was brave and lucky, and was proven wrong.

Now lets talk about RA. What is there to say but wow! She will become a great filly no doubt at all. Calvin said she didn't even handle the track very well, and she still had the heart to hold off the brave MM and MTB. She just proved her worth to all those who doubted her. She ran testing fractions, and if you say a 46 half and 1.11 six furlongs arent testing, then i don't know what is. Any how she ran fast early on and still held them off. I was sitting on the couch, growling at Calvin to slow her down and take her back. This is a great filly, no doubt. Now lets see how she comes out of the race and if she trains well then why not come back for the Belmont.

Congrats to RA and of course now we really do know that Mine That Bird was not a fluke.  That was quite the race.  From last to 2nd at the wire and less than a length at that.  I think if the two of them go to the Belmont, MTB will beat her.  That would be the real test there.  

I really feel too that had Calvin not jumped ship, Mine That Bird would have won today.  Did Calvin throw away a Triple Crown?  We will never know.  :)

LDP

Yeah I think the Belmont will be a major test for those two. Good Post!

Manoa Tommy

That wouldn't have been a very big payout LOL, If I understand you right.  :)

TO:RECHELLE,DRAYNAY,OTHERS

All week you complained and slammed MTB calling him a fluke,etc. What do you have to say now? Don't even say all of you knew he would finish second today after coming from dead last without the benefit of the rail. He has the heart of a winner and I've said on this blog and every blog he wasn't A FLUKE. Some of you display a very bad case of poor sportsmanship. It's not MTB fault that some of you lost your shirt in the Derby. Ok,I can't wait for all the crybaby excuses for him finishing second today. He did beat eleven other horses today,didn't he? lol

TO:BLAZING SADDLES

So,what do you have to say now? How did it work out for you! lol

Excellent race, the top three all proved themselves as good horses, the top two all the more so. I really like how Jess hedged on running Rachel in the Belmont, it would be great if she's 100% on the day but don't push it too hard.

As for Mine That Bird, another fine finish, maybe he wins if he doesn't get stuck outside, but either way he's shown he's a good one, and as a gelding he should be around a while, hopefully he'll hold his form longer than Funny Cide did.

First off, since when is 2 yr old of the year in canada "nowhere"?

 also, i am sad about RA - i hope JJ is pleased he blew her career on this one race. She struggled, and it was sad to see it - hope she doesnt end up like that other big filly if she runs in the belmont. Too many horses do things so easy and people say 'just think what she can do if i ever ask her' but actually, they can't do much more. They are not the dig in and win types, they are the struggle and falter types. I hope they take care of this filly and don't let the ridiculous media hype and their egos get in the way.

Rachel Alexandra, AWESOME INDEED!

Mine That Bird, a freak that broke out in the Derby ...great peformance.

Musket Man, as honest as the day is long ...very good horse.

Flying Private, one for the future ...trainer Lukas being vindicated for persevering with him.

Big Drama, has legitimate excuses ...gritty performance.  He will be back.

This was an enjoyable spectacle.  Now unto the Belmont where Charitable Man awaits all comers.

Capper,

That had to hurt!  What a freak this filly is....A great result all around.  History is made and the derby winner proves himself again!

LDP..... I was right there with you. I was giving Calvin heck for taking her to the front and with a game pace to say the least. I thought she was done for. But clearly Calvin knew this filly and what she was capable of . Had RA not entered this race there would be a TC on the line again and with MTB running style I can't help but feel he is a shoe in for the Belmont. Bred to go the distance and a late closer and a powerful closer. Definately not a fluke. What a game little horse. He is inspiring.  Not sure what has happened with FF and PON... perhaps FF took some mental beatings along with some physical ones out of the derby.

What a great day in racing.

Amen Mike.... To all those we had to defend MTB against... I guess there is nothing left to say.

JShandler, I'm surprised to see you asking Gary to eat crow -you should be eating a little crow yourself.

MTB did well today, as many - but not you- knew he would.

My hat is off to Rachel for her historic victory and to Jess Jackson for his successful gamble.

The much-maligned little MTB ran another GUTSY race, credit to his trainer, who seems like a nice guy.  One of the owners, though, who shall remain nameless, apparently tried to keep the filly out of the race.  I bet it's hard for him to stomach the fact that if Rachel had not run, his gelding would be going for a Triple Crown in three weeks.  

And the Zayat horse, never a factor, finished 10th or 11th or something.  I know this is a handicapping blog, but still, I gotta give props to the racing gods for this outcome.  

If I were Mr. Jackson, I wouldn't even be concerned about the Belmont.  It's true no filly has ever won two-thirds of the TC, but I would just let the boys fight it out.  I would give RA a nice little rest, then head to California in search of big bad Zenyatta.  I think that is the race most fans would like to see next.

Does anyone know officially what the last 1/8 and quarter were run in?  The 3/16 went in 19.26.

mile time for Black  E S  was 137 1/5,  mile time for Preakness 135 4/5.    has any cal based horse won a triple crown race since they installed syntheics in Calif?

Rachel is one helluva horse. Simply amazing and gorgeous to boot. She is going to be one for the ages I think. But I have to tell you Mine That Bird was equally as impressive in his own way and if this had been a mile and a half, I think he would have won. He is a great little horse. Just love him. He is no fluke. He also got boxed in. With a better trip I really believe he would have won.

Hooray!!!! I CAN say I knew it would be Mine That Bird or Rachel Alexandra.  A couple of days ago I said that Mine That Bird would be the ONLY horse that could catch her.  She won while struggling with the track (Borel's words) and if it had been another sixteenth of a mile Mine That Bird had a damn good chance of beating her (he doesn't have anything but heart and lungs in that little body, I swear).  I think that both horses were vindicated most thoroughly.  If only I had had Flying Private in our super....constantly missing by one horse...still, what a race!

Hats off to RA. Now can we put to rest this whole notion that MTB is a fluke,needs the slop,Calvin Borrel, blah blah blah.With a little better trip  we might be talking Triple Crown. That "little horse" has an amazing stride.He practically flew down the strech. WHAT A MOVER! Cant wait for the rematch.

Mike, I second that! MTB didnt have the easiest trip today and he still got second. I think he will beat her in the Belmont if they both go. He is a good horse and I called the exacta and triple. I wish MTB won but Im not complaining with second. That horse has a big heart just like his sire. Hes a class act all the way.

Thank you Mr. Jackson for doing the gutsy thing and giving Rachel a chance to make history.  And now the little Birdie gelding gets the credit he deserves; it WAS an awakening and he has really won me over (just hope he stays sound with that highly inbred pedigree and the way they characterize him as not being correct).  Lesson to be learned:  never take the Canadian Champion title lightly.  It was disheartening to see Take the Points backing up so early in the race and coming in last, and the hard-trying Pioneer being basically eased by Gomez.  I did see them collide early on, and I hope we don't find out that either of them is injured.  Kind of depressing also to see Larry Jones' horse do poorly again, and he looks very sad to me these days.  Lastly, I think it would be a mistake to run Rachel in the Belmont;  let the little guy take it, she has bigger fish to fry.

Karen

I hear ya.  Mine That Bird is a really good racehorse. This time it was from dead last in and out of so many horses to the wire, I lost track LOL and he still almost did it.  He needed a little more time.  :)

I am estatic that Mine That Bird came in second.  And RA is no Ruffian.  That is for sure.  She is a good horse though.  No doubt there.

Central Valley Dame

I hit 3 of 4 in my superfecta.  Oh well.  Such as life.  Boxed them of course cause I really wanted Mine That Bird to win.  He did great though.  Should have done the darn tri.  Had Musket Man in my box.  :)  Lost all my money LOL!

I hope Jess Jackson does not take RA to the Belmont.  She has proved herself.  If Calvin had known she was in for a grueling triple crown series, he would not have let her win the Oaks by 20+ lengths.  She ran big numbers, then the Preakness.  She runs so happily and eager, don't ruin her mind by overfacing her.

Glad to see Churchill form held up. I didnt have a cent on the Preakness, but I was at Churchill for Oaks and Derby day and was really rooting for the top finishers to run back to those performances. As a huge racing fan who has been watching very closely at how the general media has covered the Preakness(pre-race), the Preakness was just about a dream race. The two horses that had dominated the very large media coverage both fired and were together at the wire. Borel is vindicated for his decision, as is Jess Jackson for his decision to run a filly in a Triple Crown race, Rachel Alexandra proved herself as a truly great 3 year old filly, and Mine That Bird proved himself to be a very worthy Derby winner. I also can't forget Musket Man, a horse that is pure heart and now has placings in the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown.  Bravo all!  

It was a terrific race and I'm happy that my favorite, MTB, proved he's no flash in the pan.  

RA is magnificent, no doubt about it.  That said, I think it was wrong to give her a 5# weight advantage - particularly if the object was to prove she's "better than the boys."  Heck, she's a full hand taller and 100 lbs heavier than Bird.

I'm not sorry RA's new owners put her in the Preakness, but the weight advantage she was given just doesn't seem right.

s,

    RA wasn't even tired when she came off the track, so what are you talking about JJ blowing her career? Calvin said she struggled with the surface, horses do that all the time. Plus the last couple of strides Calvin stopped riding her. Would you quit whining and trying to put a downside to something when there isn't. RA is going to be fine, if you saw her after the race she wasn't even tired so just chill.

Tony,

    I agree. I already admitted to MTB being a fluke, but i was thinking about the way Funny Cide wowwed us in his TC bid, then for some reason never got back to that form. If MTB does hold his form he'll be a good horse, I won't say great yet, but he has potential. I really do hope he can keep going after the TC though. It would be a shame if he didn't.

Stardusty Rose,

    Thank you, glad to know a few ppl on here don't think i just ramble on and on, lol. It will be a cool belmont this year, and i can't wait to see who will show.

Karen2,

    What did happen to POTN? I know he ran wide, again, for most of the race and i saw he got bumped but happened? Again I thought he was brought a bit to close to the pace and should've been taken back even more. I feel bad for LJ and FF. I saw he stumbled out of the gate then hustled back up to like third then faded. To bad, maybe LJ will give him a break.

Hey Mike,

    What's up? Congrats on being in the half that thought MTB was for real, now you get to laugh at me in all my boneheadedness. Better late then never right? As i said earlier i hope he can hold his form after the TC. Funny Cide had a great spring, then nothing. I'm hoping that that won't happen to this little horse.

Jason, as a strong MTB's supporter I don't want you to eat crow, I simply wish you would admit that you were dead wrong about him.

Congratulations on your choice of the winner. She is magnificent. I was so scared of her that I included her in all my bets. My heart was with Bird, but my head told me I better edge my bets.

Preakness biggest surprise: Flying Private 4th!!!

The biggest disappointment: Pioneerof The Nile: 11th

Musket Man is a tough customer. He did very well. What a gutsy horse. Very consistent.

Can't wait for the Belmont now!

Thank you for a GREAT blog!

LDP, Funny Cide's TC races were really exciting but if I remember right, he didn't have the calm demeanor of MTB. I remember him kind of losing it because of the crowds and the noise. Maybe MTB will last longer because nothing seems to bother him. I sure hope so. I like him so much!

Excellent performance by Rachel Alexandra. She won as the best horse, at least on this day. She appeared fine after the race, and if she trains well, I see no reason not to run back in the Belmont, although I completely understand if Asmussen+Blasi& Jackson side with caution. There will be a lot less speed in the Belmont, and horses that run solid :12s like she does usually perform very well in the Belmont. For many years, the general rule was that pure closers, like a Mine That Bird, do not fare well in the Belmont; however, over the last 12 years, late runners have won the 96, 98, 99, 02, and 06 Belmonts.

Did Rachel struggle a little the final eighth of the Preakness? Abosulutely. For the first time in a while, she was really asked to run, and similar to Bernardini/Officer/Perfect Drift, she didnt seem to have that extra gear(since she has like 5 gears already, I suppose it would be her 6th gear). Yet, she held on well enough, and the final 3/16th of 19 and 1 was very respecatable for a Preakness. Mike Smith commented afterwards that he needed her to fold if Bird' was going to get up, but she didn't.

And Rachel had every reason to fold up. Big Drama is a quality horse, and pushed Rachel through a demanding first half of 46 and 3. That is just 3/5ths of a second off the half mile pace for the Rebel, a pace that set up the late run of Win Willy and cost Ramon Dominguez the mount on Old Fashioned for the Arkansas Derby. Rachel Alexandra SHOULD have been exhausted from such an early effort; it was just the type of pace many of her doubters had been concerned about, given that she had not had to run faster than :47 for any of her last 5 races, all at much shorter distances.

How demanding was that 46 and 3 first half? Well, earlier in the card, older fillies and mares in the grade2 Dupont at 8.5 furlongs(Mile and sixteenth) went 25 and 1 for the first quarter, 49 and 3 for the first half, and 113 and 1 for six furlongs. Rachel ran her first half about 15 lengths faster, even though she was in a race an eighth of a mile longer!  Additionally, older males in the grade3 Shaefer ran 24 and 2 and 48 for the first quarter and first half mile, respectively, in another 8.5 furlong race. So, given the fractions the track had produced earlier in the day, Rachel and Big Drama were absolutely flying early on. Both had every right to fade some in the stretch, and Big Drama did. However, he ran quite well to hang on for 5th. For Rachel to run the final 3/16th in 19 and 1, to finish 5.5 lengths ahead of Big Drama, and hold off Mine That Bird, was truly exceptional. And she did it while breaking from the far outside, from a post that no horse had ever won the Preakness from.

Rachel doesnt need excuses for not being even more spectacular. She won the race, overcame the adversity of the fast pace and a quality early challenger, and made history. Yet, Borel did seem a little disappointed immediately after the race that she hadn't been more dominant. Obviously, this reveals how confident he was behorehand; he didnt expect just to win, he truly believed Rachel would romp. Borel was adament that Rachel did not handle Pimlico well on the day. Usually, excuses like this are only made if a horse loses. If Borel is being honest, and there is no reason to suspect he isn't given that he WON the race and didnt need to offer an excuse, the implications are profound. Look at all the excuses made for Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Musket Man, Papa Clem for the Derby, and I am sure many or going to point to the bumping Mine That Bird and Musket Man endured at the top of the stretch in the Preakness. As with 99.9% of other horses, this trouble was too much for them to overcome; it really doesnt take alot trouble to derail even very good horses. Rachel also experienced less than ideal scenarios in the Preakness, with that demanding 46 and 3 half, her outside post, and with her struggling with the track. Yet, like a truly great horse, she still won.

On top of it all, Rachel was running after two weeks rest, facing males for the first time, and doing so after having changed trainers. Prior to the race, I really didn't pay much mind to the filly vs. colt thing(and there is no statistical evidence female racehorses are more likely to be injured when running against males). As many others have pointed out, fillies run frequently vs. colts in Europe, Asia, Australia as well as in quarter horse and harness racing.

The bigger concern I had about Rachel was the jump in class. Regardless of whether the other Preakness horses were male or female, they were far superior to the fields she had faced in her career.

And while many horses in the Preakness field were coming back off of two weeks rest, Rachel hadn't been trained up to the Kentucky Oaks with the Preakness in mind. The trainers of the Derby horses had trained their horses up to the Derby with the idea that if they ran well, they would run right back in the Preakness. Well, Rachel's previous owner, Dolphus Morrison, had ruled out running vs. males, so Hal Wiggins had the Acorn, 5 weeks after the Oaks, in mind when he was taining her for the Oaks. To shift plans, and then run back in 2 rather than 5 weeks, was asking alot of a horse that was also jumping up in class and meeting much tougher early speed challengers. Throw in the fact that just 9 days ago she was given to a new trainer, placed in a new barn, and had her world completely turned upsidedown, I can understand why some bettors didnt want to touch her at 8-5. That she overcame it all is quite amazing.

I have to give some big props to Hal Wiggins. We all know that Wiggins is the one who had Rachel ready to run in the Preakness. Yes, Asmussen gave her 9 days of care, and did put her through a timed workout, put Hal was the one that put in the necessary foundation. I didn't have time to read all the comments over the last 2 weeks, but for the ones I did it was certainly a fascinating read. I was disappointed to hear that Rachel had been sold. I was more disappointed in her owner, Dolphus Morrison, for selling her. I can understand Jess Jackson for wanting to buy her; who wouldn't want to have her. But Morrison didnt have to sell her, no matter how much he was offered. It's not like Jackson had a gun to his head, although I do not condemn Morrison for doing it(can't say I wouldn't have sold her if I was in his position as well- look at what has happened to I Want Revenge, QR, Mousse, OF, etc). I was disappointed that Jackson took Rachel away from Wiggins. No disrespect to Asmussen, but this was Wiggins' once in a lifetime horse and he had been training her very well after Rcahel had struggled earlier in her career. Wiggins made the Rachel's Oaks win even more special. I understand that Jackson has great confidence in Asmussen given his work with Curlin, but it was hard not to feel for Hal.

On a side not, I had also been disappointed to hear Zayat reveal the plans he and Bird's co-owner, Mark Allen, were scheming to keep Rachel out of the Preakness. What I don't understand is why Zayat made it public when he did, given that he was still thinking about going through with it. I would think you wouldn't want anyone to know until entries were taken. Anyways, it would have been poor sportmanship, and I am glad Zayat and Allen ultimately changed course. However, given the result of the Preakness, I'm sure Allen and the entire Mine That Bird clan are probably asking "what if", as in "what if Rachel Alexandra hadnt run in the Preakness".

Having given Rachel her deserving praise, I want to write some positive words about Mine That Bird. Although I did not comment this past week(but had after the Derby), I had been at Churchill for the Derby(and Oaks) and was one of those posters on this blog who was willing to take Mine That Bird's performance in the Derby at face value and, while blindsinded by it, was quite excited to have this new shooter on the Triple Crown trail(particularly given how poorly so many of the others had run in the Derby). While the Derby was an almost unbelievable performance-jump for Mine That Bird, once a horse has turned in a great performance, one KNOWS that the horse has the ability to do it again. I am not saying that I was certain Mine That Bird would run back to his Derby performance in the Preakness, or even in 3 races, but I was confident that someday he would repeat it (For those discussing Funny Cide, do not forget that he did win the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and over $1million as a 4 year old and 4 times that year ran a Beyer figure equal to or faster than his Derby Beyer). Keep in mind,also, that Mine That Bird has only run bad in one of his last 9 races; even before the Derby he had proven himself to be a consistent competitor, although not consistently fast.

What is fairly obvious to me is that Mine That Bird is a quality horse, and just simply improved a tremendous amount since his races at Sunland. However, is it possible he has been this good all along? He was, afterall, the Canadian juvenile champ, winning a grade3 stakes race at Woodbine. Perhaps MTB just didn't care for the Sunland surface? Additionally, it is obvious Mine That Bird is much more effective as a late runner, a change in style Woolley made after the Sunland Park Derby.  

All the above certainly played a role in why Mine That Bird was so overlooked prior to the Derby despite his, by now, obvious talent. Clearly, people overlooked his Canadian accomplishments, and the change in running style has had a definite impact. However, had he simply run back to his 2 year old form in Canada, he would have been beaten 20 lengths in the Derby and Preakness. And given his Sunland form, that is precisely how most, including myself, thought he was going to perform at Churchill. MTB's Beyer figures at Sunland made it appear that he had not improved over the winter. Were the Beyers for Sunland off? Possibly, given how Bird, Advice,and Mythical Power(Lone Star Derby) have subsequently run.

The Beyers for Sunland very well could be slightly off, but not by 23 points. Additionally, I do recognize that the change in style has moved Bird' up a number of lengths, and am willing to conclude that he might not have been fond of the Sunland surface. However, I really believe this is largely the case of a horse getting good at the right time. Given the heart and courage he has demonstrated in the Derby and Preakness, do you think he would have run like he did at Sunland if he was sitting on all this talent? I doubt it. If you watch his 2 Sunland races, you will see a horse giving his all. Now, clearly he was not given the best of rides in these races, particularly given his now known proclivity as a late-runner. However, it is hard to believe the change in style alone caused such a dramatic improvement. No, more likely MTB is one of those rare horses that developed and matured very quickly over a short time, progressing from a Sunland also-ran to legitmate Triple Crown contender. For this, Chp Woolley most certainly deserves at least some of the credit.

While Mine That Bird's late run in the Derby was a revelation, in the Preakness it was validation.  For those who doubted him after the Derby, it's time to concede, because this gelding is likely to be around for a while. Although Bird did not get a rail trip, faced some traffic problems including a little jostling around the second turn, and had to run with a new jockey on his back, he still came with that explosive late run. The stretch run couldn't have been more exciting, the brilliant filly on the lead being ridden by the Derby-winning jockey, with the Derby winner trying to chase them down.

In my opinion, Rachel Alexandra was the best horse on the day. Some are pointing to the trouble Bird had around the turn, but remember how fast the pace was. The pace really set up for Bird's late run, and given that Rachel was up on that pace the entire trip while being carried wide by John Velazquez on Big Drama, she showed tremdous talent and heart to maintain the advantage to the wire. Also, notice that even after the wire, Bird never did pass Rachel. I never pay much attention to gallop-outs or what happens past the wire, and it's entirely possible that by then Mike Smith had stopped riding. Yet, I did find it interesting, and believe that it is evidence that if Bird had gotten up alongside Rachel before the wire, Rachel would have found a little more.

In any event, although Mine That Bird did not win the Preakness, he emerged from the race as a winner. He has really caught the attention of the non-racing media and public, and I think his running so well in the Preakness was good for the sport. In fact, the result of the Preakness could hardly have been better for the sport, although I do understand how some would have wanted the 1-2 finish to be reversed. Imagine Rachel and Bird meeting again in the Belmont, but with Bird going for the Triple Crown? Even though the Crown will not be at stake, Bird is expected to run back in the Belmont and there is no reason to believe he will not turn in another strong showing. From the very beginning, the connections thought Bird was most suited for the Belmont. The Derby and Preakness do not appear to have been hard on the little gelding, so if he stays sound the next 3 weeks he should be a go.

He really is just such a neat little horse, short but compact, courageous yet calm. Nothing seems to cause him much concern, including running through tiny holes on the rail(or off it in the Preakness). He is certainly not flashy, but he has an explosive kick. Plus, he's a gelding, so their is a chance he could have many races ahead of him.

Jason, I'm not much on betting if I'm not actually at the track - but yes, I would have had the winner because I would have bet both RA and MTB, rooting for MTB first and RA second; of course, I wasn't referring to your eating crow over your bets, but over your attitude to MTB - but you did do right by him in your next blog article recapping the race, which is really appreciated. I think a lot of us who have come to love this little horse can't understand the reluctance by some to give him his due, even after his performance yesterday. It doesn't make sense, frankly.

mike relva,

So what for MTB. Second place is first loser.

With only reading a few of the post Preakness blogs I believe we can see, visually, not theorhetically, just how impressive RA was in her win Saturday. Gun Bow, your facts and insights are right on, and couldn't agree more with everything you said. However I think I can make everyone out there really understand that RA was much better than just her 1 length win. GB already gave the days split times revealing just how strong the early fractions were, coming from post 13, not previously being pointed to this race until 10 or so days before Saturday etc, etc.

I urge everyone to review her Oaks and Preakness wins.

Simply watch her action in both races, the Oaks she completely skipped over the going with aplomb, from start to finish, hence the stir of her performance. Ok, again she may not have beat anything that day, but that has since been validated. What to watch for : #1-again her action (stride), ultra smooth and efficient without really reaching out (w/o urging), and of significant importance look at her ears- from start to finish pricked, waiting for CB to ask her for something, like a steadfast soldier waiting for the "charge" command. All of this, besides the 20 length victory is what made her the post time, huge, favorite.

Now let's watch the Preakness' first 3/4's.  What to watch for : #2 her action from start to the 1/2 - 3/4's she looked like a terrified child thrown into the ocean. Her legs were all over the place. I said it while watching to friends that she wasn't handling the track and was very nervous considering the substantial wager I put on her nose. I believe even an amateur eye can see the difference between the two races when pointed out. Now watch her ears- floundering about with what seemed to be confusion, or indecision. Clearly not comfortable she still contested a wicked hot pace, put away the Gulstream record holder for 7 furlongs, during his DQ in the Swale last race in Big Drama. Then proceded to open up on the field without a serious threat. Yeah I know all you MB lovers think the little stutter cost him the race. Ever see a champion get looked the eye, they have  a reserve gear, a class about them, a fortitude not to be passed. RA has yet to HAVE to show this. Big respect to MB who along with MM were the only two conceivable dangers to RA. MB has some wheels reminicient to an old fav Concern, a last to first runner that always gives a stirring performance. And as that usually is we give more credit to consistent closers than we do horses that can carry speed, because of that one single move one makes. And although I'm in the running for the biggest RA fan, and stand fast and confident that with despite a longer race in the Belmont she would get softer splits and again be triumphant over the supporting cast, including MB, that she should be given a rest. She deserves this !!!!! However I believe her final destination should be the BC Classic. And I don't wanna hear anyone who said she couldn't beat the boys in the Preakness either. Let's showcase a truly precocious filly in the season ending race. Horse of the Year, first filly to win the BC Classic. Then not a single soul could rationally deny her her place in history as perhaps the best filly to trot on 4 legs. Beware, don't call this silly. I guarantee we have not seen the best of her.  Can't wait to see her next race, god willing. Safety above all else, would rather see a colt or two from her, than to ever see her race again if given a choice. Let's remember soundness allows us to enjoy this, the Sport of Kings. Love and peace to all.  

My pick for the Preakness;

1. MTB

2. RA

3. MUSKET MAN

TRIFECTA PLAYED:

MTB/RA with MTB/RA with MM

Perhaps this blog can release the

results of the "Pick The Preakness Winner" survey.

contest