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Pletcher Loaded For Run at 2010 Kentucky Derby

Welcome back to Triple Crown Talk. I look forward to helping everyone get excited about the 2010 Kentucky Derby and providing information about the leading contenders. I already know there will be lively discussion, so I'm not worried about that.

I thought a great way to kick off the season was to talk to Todd Pletcher, who is always a major presence on the Triple Crown Trail and this year has an especially strong group of 3-year-olds. It is well documented that Pletcher has never won the Derby, but it is only a matter of time before he breaks through. His operation is too strong and he is too talented a trainer for it not to happen at some point. Maybe it will be this year.

On Thursday, Pletcher took time to talk about his top 2010 contenders. Don't be surprised if three or four of them are in the starting gate on May 1.

 

JS: I know it's still early, but how do you assess your crop of 3-year-old Derby contenders as of now?

TP: We had a really good run with our 2-year-olds, which wass encouraging. I'm much more optimistic this year than I've been the last couple of years.

JS: Let's talk about some of them specifically. It looks like most of them are based at Palm Meadows. Let's start with Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway--Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew), who runs in an allowance today at Gulfstream. He was ninth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile which had to be disappointing, but it sure looks like he has talent and the right pedigree.

TP: The Breeders' Cup was a frustrating race. He had a tough trip into the first turn and never got into position. But we threw a lot at him in a short period of time. He went right from breaking his maiden (in the Pilgrim Stakes) to the Breeders' Cup. He acts like he'll run as far as the race is. He gallops out very well and stamina is not an issue with this horse.

The one-mile allowance is not ideal for him today. He is really a two-turn horse, but he is ready to go and we had to get him a race. Depending on what he does in this race, we'll probably look at the Fountain of Youth or something like that next.

  • Note: This interview was done an hour before Eskendereya went wire-to-wire in an impressive 1 1/4-length win. It looks like the FOY will be next.

JS: How about Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft--Pretty Discreet, by Private Account)? He's a horse you just recently picked up and seems to have a lot of talent. He finished runner-up in the Futurity and Champagne, and he runs this weekend in the Spectacular Bid Stakes.

TP: Yeah, he's a horse we watched this summer and really liked. He performed well with (previous trainer) Stan Hough. Mrs. Robsham and Stan kind of separated and she sent us the colt. He came to us in perfect condition and trains very well. In talking to Stan, he really likes him a lot. I'm still not sure what his optimal distance is. The Spectacular Bid is a tick shorter than I wanted (six furlongs); I really wanted seven-eighths, but we want to get him going.

JS: Super Saver (Maria's Mon--Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) is on everyone's radar after the Kentucky Jockey Club win. How did he come out of that race?

TP: He came out of it well. He went back to WinStar for a bit before he was sent down here. We'll have his first breeze since that race in about 10 days. Elliott (Walden, WinStar racing manager) will come down here and we'll map out a schedule. All of the big stakes are in play--at Tampa, Louisiana, and Gulfstream. We'll take it week by week.

JS: How does Super Saver compare with some of the better Derby prospects you've had over the past few years?

TP: The Churchill race was awfully good. He certainly fits with some of the high-level 2-year-olds I've had. The key with him is going to be if he can settle and relax. But he's a kind and smart horse and we're optimistic that he will.

JS: How about Aikenite (Yes It's True--Silverlado, by Saint Ballado)? He ran pretty well in the Breeders' Cup (finished fifth). What's the plan for him?

TP: He went straight to Florida from that race. We've been preparing him for the Holy Bull (Jan. 23). He's a big, robust colt and should appreciate two turns. He's a pretty straightforward type of horse. He shows up every time we take him to the track.

JS: How about the other WinStar horse who won impressively, Rule (Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag)? By winning the Delta Jackpot he pretty much guarantees himself a spot in the Derby.

TP: Yeah, it's nice not to have to worry about graded earnings. We'll take our time with him and probably look at something in February. We'll manage him as we see fit. He's another one I'd like to see settle next time out. But I think he's been on the lead more because of his talent and speed than anything else.

JS: Interactif (Broken Vow--Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush) is an interesting horse. He ran very well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf despite his wide post. I see you worked him once on dirt and once on turf since that race. What are the plans for him?

TP: We're going to start him back on the turf in a stake on Feb. 7 (Hallandale Beach Stakes). We'll see how it goes from there.

JS: He's a horse who broke his maiden on dirt and already has a lot of graded earnings. Even though he's shown his best stuff on turf are you thinking Derby with him?

TP:  He's probably a little better on turf, but when a 3-year-old has as much talent as he does, you always have (the Derby) on your radar. We are looking at the Santa Anita Derby for him, mostly because (the Pro-Ride) has shown it resembles turf more than dirt. Right now he's a turf horse, but he has a dirt pedigree and we'll just have to wait and see how he performs.

JS: Do you have any other 3-year-olds who might be flying under the radar or we might hear about soon?

TP: We have a couple that are playing catch-up that we like. Mission Impazible (Unbridled's Song--La Paz, by Hold Your Peace) is one we've thought a lot of. He's very talented but had to be given time off to grow up physically. He's trained very well and we're looking forward to his allowance race this weekend (Jan. 9, 2nd race at Gulfstream). Overcommunication (Unbridled's Song--Jealous Forum, by Open Forum) is another one we like. He broke his maiden impressively at Aqueduct (on Dec. 26).

JS: With about eight live 3-year-olds in Florida, is it hard to find different paths for all of them? Im sure you don't want to run them against each other, ideally.

TP: There are plenty of options down here between Tampa and Gulfstream, and it's a short ship to Louisiana. So we can work up the right plan for each individual horse. Most of them wind up separating themselves though. That's how it usually plays out. Sometimes you have to double up, but that's OK.

JS: Anything in your New York barn that you like?

TP: Not right now. We were hoping for more from Ibboyee in the Count Fleet (finished fourth as 2-5 favorite). That was disappointing. We might try him back in the Whirlaway, but we'll have to see.

JS: You're always in the mix for the Derby but have never won one. Do you feel any added pressure to get one as each year goes by?

TP: Not really. I have pressure every time I show up at the Derby (laughs). All you can do is put yourself in good position and see what happens. Right now, we're looking strong, but it's January. You have to get lucky and hope they stay healthy and sound. The rest will take care of itself.

 

171 Comments:

He has had hundreds of promising colts over the last 10 years and not one of them have won a Triple Crown race.  Is it possible, just possible he has no idea how to win a Triple Crown race?  If a coach was 0 for 40 in the Playoffs what do you think people would say?  Why do owners continue to give their promising horses to a trainer who can't win a Triple Crown race with a colt ?

draynay 08 Jan 2010 1:40 PM

Dray: I don't think it's a matter of not knowing how to train a Derby winner--he's one of the best trainers in the world. Many of the horses he's entered in the Derby probably didnt belong there, but as a trainer, he must do what the owners ask him to do. So that fact alone makes his record look even worse. That doesn't totally excuse his record, but when he has the right horse and gets the right luck, he'll win.

Jason Shandler 08 Jan 2010 1:46 PM

Dray,  Didn't Pletcher train Rags to Riches?  Super Saver will win the Derby!

trebloc 08 Jan 2010 1:56 PM

Dray has probably never heard of a horse named Rags to Riches.  Why else would s/he put down a 3 time trainer of the year in such a way, suggesting that he doesn't know how to win a triple crown race.  Or maybe Dray doesn't know that the Belmont is a triple crown race?

el 08 Jan 2010 2:04 PM

thank you jashandler for the report on Pletcher's barn, and also thank you for commenting on draynay's comment. There are several trainers who go and race their 3 year olds every year in triple crown races and don't get a win. Those are hard races to win because every trainer wants to win them.

anniedixie65 08 Jan 2010 2:05 PM

Remember Dray, Rags to Riches gave Pletcher his first Triple Crown Win.  The issue I see with Pletcher is that he works for these syndicates that want to win every race and that puts pressure on him and his operation to have horses peaking in Feb, March and April.  I mean some of his horses if allowed to be brought along patiently could have done much better in the triple crown races, but when you're focused on winning all of the preps that you run in and dont allow room for a steady conditioning program that will allow for a peak performance on the first saturday in May well that causes you to not do so well in the Derby.  One thing I have to ask Jason about Pletcher is his mention of Gulfstream, Tampa and Louisiana, but no mention of Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, which has been a hot bed of Triple Crown & Eclipse award winners, do you think there is a reason Pletcher doesnt like to bring his A horses here to my hometown.  I mean Smarty, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Hard Spun, Saint Liam, Proud Spell, Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra seemed to thrive on the foundation that they received prepping on the dirt track here at Oaklawn.  Even Zenyatta raced here, what is Pletcher's deal?

AfleetAlexForever 08 Jan 2010 2:07 PM

I just double checked and yeah Pletcher did train Rags To Riches.

anniedixie65 08 Jan 2010 2:10 PM

AfleetAlexForever: Good question. I dont have an answer as to why Pletcher doesnt send many top ones to Oaklawn. Maybe it's just proximity or that he feels more comfortable at tracks he knows well.

Jason Shandler 08 Jan 2010 2:11 PM

While I dont agree with what Dray says about Pletcher, in his defense, his comment did say promising "colts."

Jason Shandler 08 Jan 2010 2:12 PM

Jason,

Touche'...

trebloc 08 Jan 2010 2:31 PM

I hope he doesn't push those Unbridled Songs too hard - the offspring are brilliant, but brittle. Eskendereya is on my personal watchlist. He doesn't have a big 2 yr. old foundation, but he looks like he has a lot of promise.

Karen in Indiana 08 Jan 2010 2:32 PM

Thank you Jason, it appears people can't read.  COLTS !!!  Each year he gets dozens of the most promising colts and each year he can't figure out how to get one of them to peak in May or June ?  The guy is like 0 for 44 with colts.  When will people figure out he doesn't have the answer.  0 for 80 or 0 for 100 ?  At what point do you say this Trainer aka Coach hasn't got a clue how to win the big game ?  Why is racing different then every other sport in the world that we can't question a trainer that is 0 for 44 with promising young colts ?  How many more colts have to lose before someone says, "Maybe he doesn't know how to get them ready." 0 for 44 says something to me maybe for many of you it's going to take 0 for 80 or 0 for 100 but it seems clear to me he isn't doing something right.

draynay 08 Jan 2010 2:33 PM

First off, Happy New Year to you and your family and to all the bloggers here. I always enjoy the Q&A interviews you have done from time to time because I like to hear from the "trainer's mouth" so to speak--please increase the number you do.

As for Pletcher, hasn't he proven himself to where he doesn't have to cowtow to these Racing Managers like Walden at WinStar or others to map out a horse's campaign? Did Ben Jones ask Admiral Markey where to run his horses? Walden himself was only above average as a trainer with fairly good bloodstock.

As for his Triple Crown record, just like humans, some of the best "kids" come from some of the worst parents and vice-versa. Having a barn full of the best pedigrees at 10 furlongs is hardly a guarantee for success. As for    his not racing at Oaklawn, that is  somewhat surprising since his dad J.J. was a huge Hot Springs force back in the day. I remember interviewing him for the Columbia Missourian when I was in J school and Todd was walking hots for him.

steve from st louis 08 Jan 2010 2:37 PM

Dray said COLT, RTR was a FILLY, big dif bc with her the Triple Crown wasn't the goal and just came, that's not my opinion, but ur misinterperting Dray's.

Big Al 08 Jan 2010 2:41 PM

DRAYNAY

You might be shocked,but I agree w/you totally regarding your comments on Pletcher. I not sure he would win if he had ALL twenty in the gate on Derby day. lol

Mike Relva 08 Jan 2010 2:58 PM

Think of all the horses Pletcher has run in the Derby.  Then tell me which of those, despite doing well in preps, ever really looked like they had "Derby" in them, be it a matter of surface or distance.  His horses that he's run in the races who actually looked more the type did well, as opposed to the likes of, say, sprinter Keyed Entry who never had a hope.

Alysse 08 Jan 2010 3:01 PM

Been watching Eskendereya and like him still.

BlueBlueSea 08 Jan 2010 3:02 PM

Interactif is the real deal. Can't wait to see him race Superbowl Weekend.

Billy's Empire 08 Jan 2010 3:02 PM

Billy: I agree. Of all of his horses, I like Interactif and Eskendereya the best right now.

Jason Shandler 08 Jan 2010 3:05 PM

I agree with both Afleet and js. I think Pletcher needs to 1. focus just on the ones that look like they can really do it, an put them in races a little bit, but not rush them too much. 2. Give them a big winter break and work on gatework or somthing like that, only having them work 3 or 4 times from November to January. 3. Then, in the middle of January, he can start speeding up their works, then in Febuary, have them racing more ofen. 4. once he has them racing regularly and working almost every morning, he can gradualy start really getting them into it, sortof like he is now, except it will be about March by then. 5. Then he can spend the month of April preping for the Derby, or whatever else he is going to enter them in.

CityMouse 08 Jan 2010 3:16 PM

2010 kentucky derby = bob baffert or michael matz. lookin at lucky, or lentenor

jedinite 08 Jan 2010 3:31 PM

Bob Baffert has a stable full of good 3 year olds.  I believe Take Control, love his pedigree, and Lookin at Lucky will be the horses to beat come Derby time.

Jodie 08 Jan 2010 3:45 PM

God please grant me the ability to be as bad a trainer as Todd.

Wow all these second-guessers and armchair trainers, maybe you should show us your stuff.

The problem with Mr.Nay is the history of what he's had to say about Todd, well all other trainers too.

Todd is familar with the NY-Fla circuit. He'll step out of that once in a while but right now it's bu** freezing cold here in Hot Springs. It may be cold in NY but his family is there. Maybe he likes prepping in the warm country, some of us do. He also ships all over too.

Steve Stan 08 Jan 2010 3:50 PM

Since everyone is giving their Derby picks all of the sudden, put me down for Tiz Chrome. He's built like a Clydesdale with a unique  white face. Has a nice way of going, too. So does "Lucky". Typical Smart Strike.

steve from st louis 08 Jan 2010 3:53 PM

People obviously don't understand how difficult it is to win a Kentucky Derby. Better yet...You probably don't know how difficult it is to get a horse to Churchill on the 1st saturday in May. But heres a history lesson:

2000

More Than Ready - Not a 1 1/4 horse had the lead at the 1/8pole and finished strong.

Trippi - a sprinter had the lead at the top of the stretch.

Graeme Hall - displaced palate(throwout)

Impeachment - an allowance horse that finished 3rd.

20001

Balto Star - was a victim of a suicidal pace on the front end but was one of the favorites going in.

Invisible Ink - ran 2nd.

2002 - Wild Horses-last, wasn't very good anyway.

2004 - Limehouse ran a very good 4th. Pollards Vision didn't have it that day. But lets be honest...who was beating Smarty Jones?

2005 - Bandini didn't handle the track and got hurt. Flower Alley didn't have the experience but didn't embarras even running 9th. Coin Silver also got hurt that race.

2006 - Bluegrass Cat ran 2nd to Barbaro(again...who was going to beat Barbaro that day?) and Keyed entry just wasn't a derby horse.

2007 - ok...had 4 definites capable of winning. just had a bad day. Scat Daddy got injured. Any Given Saturday ran decent but didn't make any noise. Circular Quay ran late to get 6th. Cowtown Cat and Sam P. weren't superstar derby horses. Forgot where they finished. Turned out the best 3yo that year was a filly that just happened to go 1 1/2 against and defeat CURLIN(yes...CURLIN!)

2008- Turf/Synthetic Horses who were actually pretty good against BIG BROWN. BIG BROWN.

2009- A young Dunkirk was actually a favorite and had a bad break. And Advice and Join in the dance were still unproven.

So in actuality its only 0-24(since 2000). Some ran great. Some didnt. Every year you hear of trainers with that dream of getting one horse to the derby. TP can always get a horse or 2 or 4  Its the luck and the trip u have on the day. However...this year, is clearly the strongest hand ever right now. Every horse mentioned is a future Grade 1 winner.

BigWill 08 Jan 2010 3:53 PM

Afleet and City Mouse. Your argument is a little flawed due to the fact that all of these syndicate's and small owners want to get to the Derby, and you need graded stakes earnings to do it. If he does not race the horses early in the 3 year old campaign, they may not have a chance of ever getting to the Derby with no stakes earnings. Some horses do well enough at 2 to make it into the Derby, like Rule or Interactif, but many never race until they turn 3, at least not in a graded stakes. Todd has had great success as a horsemen ( I loved English Channel)and it is too bad he has not won the Derby yet, but he will. maybe when Zayat realizes that a synthetic horse will never win the Derby, he will stop giving them to Bob Baffert and send some more to Todd... Thanks Jason for the view!

Billy's Empire 08 Jan 2010 3:55 PM

The only reason Lookin at Lucky will have a chance at the Derby is b/c Bob is sending him east, in a much different approach than last year with Pioneer of the Nile. Take Control might as well come with him. Send one to LA, and one to Gulfstream, but stay away from the plastic.

Billy's Empire 08 Jan 2010 3:57 PM

Alysse, Circular Quay had a shot I thought, and Bluegrass Cat was 2nd at 30-1

Billy's Empire 08 Jan 2010 3:59 PM

Steve Stan- I second that!  Maybe the owners have alot to do with many of the horses Mr Pletcher has run.

Footlick 08 Jan 2010 4:03 PM

I'm feeling particularly "negative" today.  But I think Dray is right about the "Lukas school" of thought...I never say a horse that could not win the Derby. Perhaps it is time that Pletcher came back home.  We have "magic dirt" now. In a way it is kind of cool seeing the horses that could not sell step up and beat the Easy Goers and Dunkirks of the world!  At the end of the day even money can't buy the Derby.  I wish Pletcher all the luck but am secretly looking for that $30,000 yearling as a good Derby candidate.    

Householder 08 Jan 2010 4:08 PM

I am not suggesting that Mr. Pletcher is not a good trainer.  I am suggesting that perhaps he doesn't know the best way to get a colt ready for the Triple Crown races.  Why would I give my promising young colt to him when he has never found the way?  Would you rent a tour guide that didn't know his way to the top of the mountain ?

draynay 08 Jan 2010 4:18 PM

Every year a handful of trainers such as Pletcher and Asmussen get a bunch of extraordinary pedigrees to mold.  They then buy any others that show talent for some other trainer whom has been careful and got a once-in-a-lifetime type horse.  And inevitably someone else wins the Derby.  When will owners learn not to give all of these wonderful horses to trainers that train multiple outfits?  Two hundred plus horse outfits are not productive winning these big races.  Todd, Zito, Steve,Baffert, try to accumulate the most two-year old talent they can find and throw them ALL into the mix on Derby day.  

Two-dollar bettor 08 Jan 2010 4:20 PM

God please grant me the ability to be in the Lukas school, and have 4 Derby winners.

Actually I think Draynay is on the bandwagon for one of Wayne's colts, or was earlier. Did you mean I never 'saw' a horse that could not win the Derby?

That really is true, due to the nature of the race it's often wide open. That's why it's so hard to handicap especially 4 months out.

Owners want trainers who can get their horses to the Derby, owners will push trainers to run horses in the Derby, even Wayne has said that. As long as you can get them to that arena, that's where owners want to be.

It isn't always the best pedigree or the top seller that wins the Derby, any horse on any given day.

More rarely in that group who can jump up and win the calvary charge that is the Derby, one that can handle the stress and pressure like a warrior or a really lucky one to win the Derby, is finding one of those who can have sustained success.

Steve Stan 08 Jan 2010 4:37 PM

i could see super saver been the speed at the derby, i think he's best on tp barn, i think he's going to be 2nd or 3rd.

josue555 08 Jan 2010 4:49 PM

Well - one of my New Year's resolutions was to show more patience with Dray and some of his more outrageous comments...and he has actually made that easy by making - what I think - is a valid point.

There's not doubt about it - Pletcher has not gotten off the schneide (sp) as far as getting a colt to the Derby and winning - let alone any other TC race.  Rags to Riches was his only success - I guess girls were starting to rule even then!

However - a lot of great trainers have never won a Triple Crown race - so I don't think that Pletcher is diminished as a success based on not having won.  But it would certainly be a monkey off his back if he could get a colt to Derby with a real chance.

Speaking of colts - I've been all over American Lion since before he broke his maiden - but am a tad worried because Harty will probably prep him on synthetic - which I don't think translates to a Derby win.

However - I picked up on Tiz Chrome when I saw Baffert grabbed him off a maiden win at a big price for the Mercedes Stable and partners.  He - to borrow from Baffert - looks like a "serious, serious horse" - and his 97 Beyer on synthetic in only his second start was pretty sweet!  And Baffert is not afraid to have his 3-year-olds travel to get that taste of dirt under their feet - so here's hoping for big things from this colt, as well!

It seems to me we may have the best crop of Tiznow three-year-olds yet with this year's edition.  

Cgriff 08 Jan 2010 4:54 PM

So Draynay, do you not think that Garrett Gomez will ever win a Triple Crown race do to the simple fact that he hasn't won one to date?  Pletcher's 42 years old and has multiple Triple Crown wins in his future.  Your ignorance will be proven sooner rather than later.

simpson21 08 Jan 2010 4:57 PM

I don't want to be rude Mr.Nay because you might have a horse I'd like to train, ho don't think so. I'd like to hire Waldo as your tour guide, since no one ever knows where he is at.

Plus I'd never rent a 'tour' guide to take me to a mountain top. Maybe you would, but go to Everest and ask for one, please.

Sherpa's don't always get groups to the summitt successfully but they're better than just about anyone else. Hey maybe an amusement park tour guide who knows everything about the Matterhorn in the park will lead you up Everest?

Steve Stan 08 Jan 2010 5:06 PM

i say good luck to todd with all his horses. keeping them safe and sound is the most important thing.but it'd be nice to have one win the derby for him.

christy tate 08 Jan 2010 5:22 PM

I would just like to remind the Pletcher bashers that people used to have the same knock against D'Wayne Lukas.  He could win any other race but was 0 for the Derby.  Then came Winning Colors, a filly, to break the drought for him in 1988.  Lukas then went on to be one of the dominant trainers in the Triple Crown throughout the nineties.  

It's HARD to win the Derby.  Horses only get one shot and lots of things can happen to muck up a horse's chances in the time leading up to the big day or in the race itself.  I'm not a huge Pletcher fan, but the man wins races all over the country.  He wins with 2 and 3 year olds and older horses, males and females, grass and dirt horses, at all distances.  Clearly he knows how to train a horse (and hires good assistants that know how to train).  I don't believe those that don't train have a right to knock Pletcher for his inability to train a racehorse.

whoapony 08 Jan 2010 5:32 PM

Pletcher will get his Derby win in due time,he's too good not to.I'm just not sure it'll be this year...again. Although I feel the filly,Devil May Care is his best 3yo in his barn,Discreetly Mine,IMO,will be his top Derby colt come April if all is well.I like his upside potential & pedigree,and if he matures/improves off of his bang-up 2yo campaign he'll be tough.We'll see,it's early but it's about that time.

Jason "snooki" Shandler, :} ..my man.Still holding out hope for the turfer Monba,er...Interactif huh? Cool.That's the gist of it,sticking to your guns and hoping your picks come thru.

I'll stick with Take Control for now.His lone start was pretty impressive @ a 2-turn mile and the way he separated himself from the field & galloped out....WOW!!!!!  even BBaffert was impressed & surprised by his debut performance,to say the least.The Sky is the limit,plus he'll run all day according to BBaffert.

Go ahead people,keep disrespecting 'synthetics' horses,you should've known better by now.

Carlos in Cali 08 Jan 2010 5:40 PM

SIMPSON21

Here's a fact there's many good/great trainer's that NEVER win the Derby. DRAYNAY isn't wrong on this point!

Mike Relva 08 Jan 2010 5:53 PM

Jason:

off the subject for moment,who is horse or horse's you like in the Spectacular Bid?

tcc 08 Jan 2010 6:13 PM

After the girl power of 2009, I'm surprised that Derby talk is centering on colts only.  There are some really hot fillies who just turned 3, and I'll bet we see them in Triple Crown action. (I hope).

Slew 08 Jan 2010 6:26 PM

Rags to Riches.....ah now that's a sweet name.  Yes....Todd trained her. She beat the mighty Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Love Curlin. But, i always like the see the girls beat the boys.  Todd's a great trainer. When he gets the right horse he will win the Triple Crown!

Twilla 08 Jan 2010 6:47 PM

pletcher has never won a tc race with a colt. but he's 1-0 with a filly since the one time he ran a filly in a tc race he won. so i think that he should run some of his better fillies in the races and maybe they will keep winning for him. it's almost like a larry jones thing where he had a few good colts but only two in the derby but he's done better with fillies instead of colts. larry jones had trained island sand who was the runner up in the 2004 ky oaks before winning the acorn stakes i believe.

anna w 08 Jan 2010 7:24 PM

    I for one would give Pletcher a promising young colt regardless of his record in the TC.  There are plenty of races with nice purses to be won before the TC and plenty to be won after and Pletcher has proven he knows how to do that.  If my only goal was to win a TC race and that was it, then no, I wouldn't send my horse his way.  In that case, Bob Baffert would be my choice hands down.

    I really don't think Pletcher will break his winless streak in the Derby this year, but if I had to choose one of his horses to do it, I would go with Super Saver.  I loved his fall wins at Churchill.

    As far as my early choice for the Derby, I really like Buddy's Saint.  I can't wait to watch his next race in the Fountain of Youth.  There's a lot to like about him.  Like all others, time will tell.  You also have to respect Baffert's top 2 as well (Lookin At Lucky and Take Control).  Lookin At Lucky is already battle tested and he's a fighter.  Take Control was impressive in his maiden win and what else can you say about the pedigree.  Of course, we've seen a million times that pedigree doesn't necessarily equate to Derby wins.  Let the fun begin!

Curlin 08 Jan 2010 7:39 PM

I was not bad mouthing Lukas...the man was also known to crank a filly or two up (Winning Colors/Lady's Secret) in addition to his 4 Derby wins and countless Triple Crown scores.  Merely suggesting that his in his hey day his assistant learned a lot from the master in terms of running each year.  One has to be in the Derby to win.  But at the same time, perhaps running stuff that should not have been run.  But hey perhaps there is a Charasmatic in Pletchers barn this year. Even an honest Lukas would probably tell you that was a suprise.

Householder 08 Jan 2010 8:06 PM

tcc: I like Discreetly Mine and A Little Warm. You?

Jason Shandler 08 Jan 2010 8:18 PM

my derby favorite is buddy's saint and lookin at lucky right now. i will include take control but AP Indy colt take too long to come to their own so he probably will be at his best at the belmont or haskell. like i said super saver is my favorite of his barn maybe rule also.

josue555 08 Jan 2010 8:44 PM

Carlos in Cali

I love Take Control.....Looks like the real deal. LOL

LAZMANNICK 08 Jan 2010 9:07 PM

Jason:

I also like those horses you mentioned, I also will throw in

Grand Times.

tcc 08 Jan 2010 9:13 PM

I agree with Draynay, too. Todd Pletcher is a very good trainer whose regimen is not working when it comes to producing KD winners, let alone Triple Crown. If you look back at TC winners, all of them except Seattle Slew, had at least 9 races as a 2 yr. old, as far as I can tell they all had good winter breaks (in pastures, not standing around in a stall), and started their 3 yr. old season with races about 7 furlongs. That doesn't even sound close to what today's trainers do, Pletcher included.

Karen in Indiana 08 Jan 2010 11:02 PM

Wayne may have a Charismatic in his own barn. Todd has plenty of time to win one, I just doubt we'll see anyone as dominant as the big 3 again. What's up with the D'Wayne? Makes him sound like an NBAer :) LOL

Householder, you're right and I think you were being agreed with. If you don't have one in the race you have ZERO chance of winning it, Wayne says that all the time.

There are lots of Graded Stakes winners each year but only one Derby winner. Wonder why it's still considered the most prestigious race to win? THE race every owner, trainer or jockey still going wants to win? The one great regret every horseman ever had, not winning the big one.

Like Whoapony and Steve S said, it's so easy to second guess these guys. When one of you wins a TC race or even TRAINS a real race horse of ANY kind for a race of any kind, then you can critique the really bad training of Todd. Until then your babbling about it is just that.

Todd has come close, he has had some nice horses that made a showing and like a lot of these guys who get pressured by us owners, he's had some that had no business in the race. I dare one of you to say no to some of these multi-millionaires/billionaires. Particularly when you rely on them for your living or even more so when you see things in a horse yourself, that may not pan out.

To talk about any of their training abilities is strictly opinion and truly one that should be left for when you're betting on a race or choosing a trainer to train one of your own, a real live one not a pretend one.

Tim G 08 Jan 2010 11:51 PM

JASON,

I do believe you made a brilliant start to this years Triple Crown talk series by speaking with Todd Pletcher.  Providing that his charges remain sound the Derby will be his to win or lose this year.  No doubt "Derby king" Bob Baffert and the Dutrows (Rick and Tony) will have a lot to say about that but I'm in Pletcher's corner for the time being with Eskendereya as my favourite triple crown aspirant so far.  It is still too early to settle but I like everything about this colt; pedigree, smooth running action, versatility in terms of pace or racing surface, stamina and scope for improvement.  If this horse proves good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the Triple Crown drought will be 90% broken.  That's the potential I see in this colt, so let's crank-up the Eskendereya waggon for all the early bird Triple-crown trailers.

Keep the good stuff coming Jason ...great blogs.

Ranagulzion 09 Jan 2010 12:26 AM

Pletcher's time will come, he has too many horses each year not to eventually do it.  I am not sure this year will be his though...

I love Buddy's Saint, he is my early Derby horse.  I like Super Saver, and I also like a lesser known horse called Maximus Ruler who I saw win impressively a month or so ago. Lookn At Lucky certainly has a ton of talent and the 2 year old foundation, but questions abound about whether or not he's a synthetic specialist.

Gotta love the Road to the Derby!

runfast159 09 Jan 2010 12:29 AM

Ok, so Pletcher is 1 for how many in triple crown races?

If you had a football coach who got the best of the best, or was suppose to be the best of the best, and they were 1 for 40 or 50, or however many, that coach would be gone.

Might have something to do with riding "pretty boy" Johnny V. Put someone up that is hungry and wont hesitate to take a hole, and you might win more triple crown races.

Im thinking C-Bo, Shane Sellers, Smoking Joe Talamo, or pretty much any cajun jock. Well not Kent Desx.

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 1:06 AM

Almost forgot. Speaking of Cajun Jocks, what about Neil Howard and his use of Robby A? Other then Johnny V. and Kent Desx. I have never seen a jock stiff so many short price horses.

Neil Howard gets the best bred horses, some you think would make an impact on the Triple Crown Trail, but they don't. You can have a really nice expensive car, but if you don't have a driver, it wont perform!!

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 1:09 AM

Take Control was awesome!!! You dont see A.P. Indy babies do what he did first time out. Not often.

Then again, by the time he gets to Churchill Downs, he will be so confused with the track surface (thanks to the plastics in california), he will run bad in the Derby, and come back and win the next two legs of the Triple Crown.

You play like you practice. A horse should be prepped on the surface they will run on. The KY Derby is on dirt, you should prepare them on dirt!!!

Also like a horse named Soaring Empire. Race program has him by Empire Maker, out of an A.P. Indy mare. However, pedigree query, has him by Empire Maker out of a Smart Strike mare. Not sure what is going on.

If the dam is by A.P. Indy, I love this horse. Ran third in a stakes at Churchill Downs. Did not switch leads until right before the wire.

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 1:14 AM

Carlos in Cali--

Take Control is my Derby pic, but he has only ran once and it was on plastic. How can we not disrespect him or question his dirt ability?

Pedigree wise, he should love it. But odds are Baffert will keep in in "plastic city" and dirt will be so new to him, he will be confused.

Thanks Bob Baffert and the good folks in California for making plastics law. Way to really mess horse racing up.

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 1:20 AM

Here is a stat to think about:

Since the year 2000, every horse that has won the Derby has been a single entry from a single barn-trainer. No multiple entries have won. Not one. War Emblem was given to Baffert two weeks before the Derby, so Baffert did not train him up to the Derby...that year (in 2002) Baffert trained a single Derby entry-Danthebluegrassman, a horse who finished 6th and then dead last in his last 2 Derby preps. So, before Baffert was handed War Emblem, he joked he was their for the festivities but had no shot! But for 2 weeks Baffert and War Emblem were 1 on 1 24-7. Its a stressful time and these horses need to know the Alpha of the barn is tending to them because they are special, not one of 6 entries. Remember Zito with Bellamy Road, Sun King, and 4 other entries? Who won that Derby? Giacomo, Shirreffs only entry...get the point?

When Pletcher won with Rags at Belmont--which is beside the point because she is a filly-she was his LONE ENTRY.

Every other horse that won the Derby since 2000, from Monarchos to Big Brown and Mine that Bird, were the LONE ENTRY of their trainer. Getting a horse ready for the Derby is a very hands on ordeal, Dutrow even skipped Dubai to prep BB in the Florida Derby and rode with the colt in his trailer from Palm Meadow to Churchill Downs...

THAT is why Pletcher is odds on NOT to win the Derby. He does not match to profile of a Derby winning trainer (see Street Sense). Of course, one of these days Pletcher will get a Big Brown type who will win despite the barn full of also rans.

This is not that year, however. Not based on what we have seen. So, Dray is correct. Pletcher needs to stick to 1 or 2 (at the most) true contenders. He will not, however, as he approaches the Derby as throwing stuff against the wall and hoping something sticks. Aside from the T/C, Pletcher's a good trainer. He is simply loaded with good, but not a single great, 2 and 3 year olds.

Geronimo2123 09 Jan 2010 6:24 AM

how many times did bobby frankle win the derby?

how many times did charles wooley?

one is a legend one is name you might not here outside of new mexico again.

the trainer does not get in the gate so the person  who is important is the jockey.the jockey and horse are the team.you have to trust your jockey.jockey makes crucial decisions that make or dont make history ask charles wooley,john sherrifs,john ward.

al bundy 09 Jan 2010 6:41 AM

Jason,

    I know I wasn't really invited in on the question but I love Discreetly Mine. I think he kept running into really tough juveniles last year, like D'Funnybone and Homeboykris. What I like is that he was always there running his same race, and one of these days that consistencey is going to win him a race, IMO. I'm watching him today very closely.

Also, I wanted to know what you thought of Cuvee Uncorked's chances in the What a Summer Stakes today at Laurel? I think she stands up pretty well, but I'm also a bit bias and wouldn't mind a second opinion. Thanks and have a good day.

LDP 09 Jan 2010 8:30 AM

Jason,

    Triple Crown Talk could not have started any sooner!  Thanks for the interview with Mr. Pletcher, It is only a matter of time before he is awarded a Triple Crown Race with one of his colts, He is too talented to not have one of those Trophys on his resume.  Hope he wins one this year, He deserves it! With Rule, Interactif, Eskendereya, Aikenite and Mission Impazible, One of these will break through, Just need some racing luck! Love the fact that Mission Impazible was mentioned and I have loved this colt from day one, Looking forward to his year.  Mr. Pletcher SHOULD take 1,2 today at Gulfstream with Mission and Three Day Rush, We shall see.  Today and Tomorrow should be two great day of races, Too many to mention, Good Luck to All...

Finally, Did anyone catch the two idiot Jockeys at Philly Park yesterday?  Both deserve to be banned forever from ever racing again!, Talk about Stupidity!  Here are a couple of clips of their selfish antics:

www.youtube.com/watch

www.youtube.com/watch

Greg J. 09 Jan 2010 9:00 AM

Take Control had a style in his first race that reminded me of Sea the Stars...gawking at the crowd,

working slowly to the outside, puts his head down...and he's a bullet...most impressive win so far for me...(a very unexpected win during the race)  Class!

Slew 09 Jan 2010 9:37 AM

Fire Slam-Pioneer of the Nile ran second in the Derby rinning on plastics.  I guess some horses can overcome it.

Footlick 09 Jan 2010 11:08 AM

Billys Empire, It would seem that Mr Zayat has indeed learned to run his colts on dirt since Eskendereya is in fact owned by Zayat Stables. Didn't he win the Pilgram @ Belmont? He is based Palm Meadows in south florida for the winter and would race at Tampa, Gulfstream or Fair Grounds. I'm pretty sure they are all dirt surfaces.

CRIMINAL TYPE 09 Jan 2010 11:57 AM

Al Bundy? I sort of get your point, but it's Benny or Chip Wooley not Charles Wooley.

However, most with Derby winners, or those who have finished on the board know that the Derby is not near the riders race that the Belmont is.

Yes they must think if the horse gets tangled up in that mess on the first turn. But on the whole if the rider carries out the trainer's instructions a legitimate horse, it has a great chance of winning.

Like Chip (Charles LOL) told Calvin to make that ONE move in the Derby, knew that Calvin is fearless on the rail and picked him because of that. Like Wayne telling Gary to take Winning Colors to the front and make them chase her, like his instructions to Chris on Charismatic in the Derby. They all get instructions and if they can carry them out the chances of winning are much better.

The thing is, most of these jocks don't ever climb on the horse except in a race, especially in this day and age. The trainers and the exercise riders are the guys who know these horses best. They are creatures of habit and really, ever wonder why different jocks can climb on a horse and win?

The one Derby win within the last 15 years at least, that I would say was a brilliant ride and one that the jockey won, was the 96 Derby with Jerry Bailey on Grindstone.

Now the Belmont? Trainers might as well spit into the wind because it's like all common sense just flies out the window. Besides the distance, that chasing the lead is what gets them every time.

Yes there are some jockeys that seem to have a unique relationship with a horse, Cal-Rachel, Mike-Zenyatta, Mike Azeri, Mike-Giacamo hmm see a trend here, but for the most part it's just a job to these guys.

Tim G 09 Jan 2010 12:01 PM

I happened to catch Take Control's win on a TV replay while channel surfing. It will be very interesting to see how he develops, because from the looks of it he's got a ton of talent.  He's not on the lead like his mom, but he showed her speed closing to the wire!

Lil Darlin 09 Jan 2010 12:19 PM

Pletcher's Triple Crown woes are being noticed because the last several years he isn't dominating the 2 year old races like he once was. He still gets high priced yearlings but Baffert and McLaughlin seem to get the better ones.

Tim 09 Jan 2010 12:46 PM

Baffert and McLaughlin get the better ones?  Isn't possible they are "better" because they are trained better ?

draynay 09 Jan 2010 1:40 PM

Here we go again. Arm chair critic's who have never been in a shedrow never mind train one.

Wanda 09 Jan 2010 2:49 PM

Greg J

I didn't know Floyd and Manny were riding at Philly park.  Kind of reminds you of old times, especially the movies about horse racing where the jocks practically kill each other.  Come to think about it, wasn't there a scene or two in the movie Seabiscuit that was similar?    

LAZMANNICK 09 Jan 2010 3:06 PM

Alysse, Bluegrass Cat was my bet in the Derby won by Barbaro. I got rewarded handily with a $500 plus perfecta. Bluegrass Cat was also runner up in the Belmont.

Jason, you cannot be serious that Todd Pletcherr is one of the best trainers in the world. He is not even the best trainer in the US. No other trainer in the US destroys more horses than Tood. His horses have a tendency to run one or two big races and then disappear. Any Given Saturday comprehensively defeated Curlin & Hard Spun in the Haskell and could not get out of his way after. Proud Accolade won the HUTCHESON in a NTR and could not get out of his way after. Flower Alley was surprising runner up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and went missing in action after.  The list goes on and on. Good trainers do not whine about tracks being too fast when their charges get beat. If Dunkirk had won the Florida Derby would he have complained that the track was too fast? I did not hear any trainer complaining when Proud Accolade ran a NTR on the same track. Remember he has been suspended for violations.

None of Mr. Pletcher’s horses have derby credential. Their profiles do not match those of past derby winners. I have evaluated them and none will hit the board. Let’s Hope has others are better than the lot has sent out so far.  Any competent trainer with a continuous supply of quality horses should win a lot of races. It does not make them amongst the best in the world.

I like two colts; they are Vale Of York and Concord Point. Both colts are inbred to siblings. In the case of Vale Of York, he is inbred in his third generation to the brothers Kris and Diesis.  Kris was the sire of Kris S the stallion that has sired the most Breeders Cup winners. He is also broodmare sire of Zenyatta. Vale Of York  BCJ win was unbelievable. No ordinary horse checks off horses, change direction, split horses and quicken to be travelling best of all at the line. This colt has good tactical speed; an abundance of stamina and he is bred in the purple. If there are any doubts about the success of inbreeding to sibling, a review of the pedigree and record of Ramonti should help..

Concord Point is inbred between his 4th & 5th to Relaunch and Moon Glitter. Relaunch has the distinction being one of only four horses that have been sires and broodmare sires of a Breeder Cup Classic winner.  In addition to being inbred to sibling, this Tapit’s colt pedigree reflects inbreeding to five horses between his 4th & 5th generations. Deby winners Real Quite & Charismatic pedigrees reflect inbreeding to five horses.

If there are any doubts about the success of inbreeding to sibling, a review of the pedigree and record of Ramonti should help.

NB: 1951 and 1957 Derby winners’ Count Turf and Iron Liege were inbred to siblings. My Charmer, dam of TCW Seattle Slew was inbred to siblings

Coldfacts 09 Jan 2010 3:16 PM

Coldfacts: You're right. Pletcher's multiple training titles at the best tracks in the nation, win and earnings titles, and his multiple Eclipse Awards suggest he is a subpar trainer. What was I thinking?

As for Vale of York, good luck touting Dubai trained horses. They have done very well in the previous Derbys. Come to the plate with more than that please.

Jason Shandler 09 Jan 2010 4:00 PM

Fire Slam, Slew, Lil Darlin,

The odds of Take Control winning the derby are very long. He does not fit the profile of a possible derby winner. His sire A.P. Indy appears to be on the same course as Storm Cat. It appears both will go down history as great stallions that never sired a derby winner. A.P. Indy's 2007 racing crop represents his 12th crop. His previous eleven crops did not produce a derby winner. He has covered some of the best mares in the US. The 2009 Derby winner was sire by a Belmont winner and his dam was sired by son of Mr. Prospector.  

His dam belongs to the multimillion dollar earners club. No member of this club to date has produced a derby winner. They have been bred to some of the top stallions in the US. The average earning of the last 20 derby winning broodmares is $104K. This indicates that t is moderate achievers on the track that foal derby winners.

The 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird was sire by a Belmont winner Birdstone and his dam was sired by Smart Strike a son of Mr. Prospector.   What are the chances of consecutive derby winners being produced from Belmont winners and broodmares sired by sons of Mr. Prospector? The chances are remote but not impossible as sons of Northern Dancer have been broodmare sire of consecutive derby winners twice. However the winning stallion did not have similar classic winning profiles.

The policy of breeding the best to the best has not produces the champions of the past. It is unlikely to produce the champions of the future.

Coldfacts 09 Jan 2010 4:22 PM

Jason, My bad, I look at the best trainers in the world as those that take horses all over the world and win top races. Not those who are reliant on pre race medication & steroids. How many races has this super trainer won outside the US? Can Mr. Pletcher take horses to racing jurisdiction that do not allow pre race medication and be successful? He is guaranteed a supply of quality horses each year from his rich owners. Any competent trainer that is worth his salt is likely to win a ton of races. Are you implying that if you gave the top ten trainers in the US the horses supplied to Pletcher they would do any less? In spite of trailer load of youngsters each year, his record in Triple Crown races is dismal. What is his record one win from 104 starters? Check the op trainers in the world and you will find they win the big ones consistently. His records in these races do not support your claim that he is one of the top trainers in the world.

Regal Ransom was eight in the 2009 derby. Only one of the 12 horses behind him was trained in Dubai. Regal Ransom did not get the derby distance. That is what contributed to where he finished and not the fact that he was trained in Dubai. The post time favorite for the 2009 derby Friesan Fire was not trained in Dubai and he finiashed 19th. I do believe the best finish for a horse trained in Dubai was sixth (China Visit) Neither China Visit not Regal Ransom won the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I suggest you revisit the race and you will see that his colt started running very late suggesting he will have no problem with the derby distance. He had no business winning that race with his trip and the worst jockey in the race. The good ones find a way to win. This horse is regally bred and I recognize that it will take an exceptional horse to win from Dubai. I happen to think he could be the one. I am sure you know the story of Canonero II. The real good ones overcome adversity

Coldfacts 09 Jan 2010 5:12 PM

Coldfacts: I refuse to argue this subject after this because it is so ridiculous. Pletcher's body of work speaks for itself. For you to say he is not one of the best is pretty laughable. He gets good horses for a reason--because he has proven himself over many years. He didnt just get the best horses overnight; he earned them. As far as his Derby record, many of the best trainers in the country have never won it. Means nothing about his his training ability overall.

As far as the Dubai horses, you're wasting your time. No shot. I'll hold all bets.

Jason Shandler 09 Jan 2010 5:25 PM

COLDFACTS,

Did you say that none of Pletcher's horses has Derby credentials?  Arise from your momentary slumber my friend. You may have fallen asleep over the pedigree analysis.  Rub your eyes properly and take a good look again at the first three generations in the pedigrees of Super Saver, Rule and Eskendereya.  You should recognize Derby-winning influences running like water, that is Sires that have produced Kentucky Derby winners, present in both top and bottom of the horses' family (except for Eskendereya's sire line).  In the case of the latter it has to be said that unlike other sons of Storm Cat, Giants Causeway does not inhibit stamina in his offsprings.  On the contrary, he is a stamina influence which, in the case of Eskendereya should have an exponential effect upon the influences of his awesome tail-female family that includes Seattle Slew (2nd generation), Alydar (3rd generation), Northern Dancer (4th generation) and Ribot (5th generation).  Eskendereya will run all day and the evidence so far is that he'll do it at a pretty good clip.  So watch this one Coldfacts.

I could elaborate similarly on the pedigree of Super Saver and Rule but I know that you've caught the drift or draft(LOL ...don't catch a cold from the facts now) of my argument.  Todd Pletcher is very hungry to prove all the naysayers wrong this year and to shake that Derby-jinx monkey off his back. He'd better do it this year because that "monkey' on his back is transmuting into an ugly gorilla.  Therefore I'm on his side this year and wishing him all the best as usual.        

Ranagulzion 09 Jan 2010 7:15 PM

Cold Facts--

Do not disagree. But then again thats why the race is ran. Mind that bird didnt fit the Derby profile, nor did some of the other recent winners. Horse racing is the one sport you leave the track almost every time, scratching your head and asking "How did that horse win?"

I was thinking about that the other day. What if AP Indy does not sire a KY Derby winner. I have always felt Storm Cat was way over rated as a sire.

All Im saying is Take Control did what most AP Indys dont do first time out. Win and show maturity.

I am still looking for Soaring Empire. Empire Maker out of a AP Indy mare. However, some pedigree databases have his dam being by Smart Strike. Not sure what is up with that??

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 8:33 PM

Loved Johnny Vs day today at Gulfstream Park. Case made. Sorry Todd, your horses are not good enough to over come "pretty boy Johnny V."

Fire Slam 09 Jan 2010 8:44 PM

Fire Slam--Storm Cat, what a crummy stud he was. hee hee.

Another blog where Jason gets a top trainer and someone who is acutally in the game, imagine that, to talk and the roaches come out of the woodwork. Soon you experts can just make everything up because Jason will have a hard time getting them to speak with him, that is just too bad. Like somebody said on another blog it's pretty disrespectful of Jason who works hard to bring you all some kind of contact with the real world of racing.

Steve Stan 09 Jan 2010 9:00 PM

Fire Slam

BH/Equineline have Soaring Empire's dam by AP Indy.  I think they are fed by the Jockey Club database:

www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm

sherpa 09 Jan 2010 9:48 PM

If a trainer wins 1 Derby his career is a success. Pletcher has plenty of time. What's the count? 40,000 foals a year and ONE derby winner? You could conceivably be the best trainer in the world and still not win this race.(Bobby Frankel)

Edward 09 Jan 2010 10:19 PM

Dray;

    You couldn't have hit the nail more on the proverbial head when it comes to Pletcher and his Triple crown performances -or lack there of- with some of the world's best colts.

    If a coach continued to lose the stanley cup year after year with a team of all-stars sitting on the bench I really don't believe it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that the players aren't being properly coached for the big game.

    I'm not saying Pletcher isn't a good horse trainer, I'm just saying his formula for winning triple crown races is missing something.  In any other sport the world would recognize this but in horse racing it's true what they say about a fool and his money parting.  Who else but a racing owner would pay millions to watch

the same person make the same mistakes every spring?  Go figure.

clint 09 Jan 2010 10:31 PM

Steve Stan,

     So True!, It amazes me that some always feel the need to say nothing but negative comments about the trainers/owners that grant Jason an Interview.  You said it perfectly, "roaches come out of the woodwork". The saving grace is that those who grant Jason these interviews have to realize all of those remarks are just plain jealousy or ignorance or a combo of both!  On a side note, I had a good day with a few of Mr. Pletcher's Colts today.  It was nice to see the return of "Mission Impazible", He came in second to another of Mr. Pletcher's colts, "Three Day Rush" at Gulfstream.  The one that made my day was a small claiming race at the Big A, A colt named "Dorian Will" trained by Mr. Pletcher, He won at 8-1, So, Thank You Mr. Pletcher and here is to you having a succesful Triple Crown Run...

Greg J. 09 Jan 2010 10:32 PM

Greg: You didnt have the exacta or tri in the Old Hat? I had it multiple times :)

Jason Shandler 09 Jan 2010 10:39 PM

Jason,

    Missed that one!  You see that pay off!  18K for a $1 Tri!  I didn't go crazy today due to the mud, I hate the mud, Throws everything off!  Went huge with the Mission Impazible Exacta, While chalk, It was a stone cold lock :)

Sorry about your Eagles, Rough Night!  At least I won't have to see Vick anymore this year!  Patriots will destroy the Ravens tomorrow, Take it to the bank...

Greg J. 09 Jan 2010 10:54 PM

Fire Slam,

Before the 2008 Breedes Cup Juvenile I posted a thread on Mine That Bird recommending him as a dark hosre who could upset at long odds. Needless to say he finished last. Mine That Bird did fit the derby winners profile based on history. He was the Canadian Champion 2YO just like derby winners Northern Dancer & Sunny’s Halo before him.. His sire is from the Mr. Prospector line that has only accounted for 32 victories in Triple Crown races over the last 14 years. His dam was unraced. Historic records reflect that unraced and lightly raced broodmares are the ones that produce most of the exceptional horses. One of the greatest thoroughbreds to grace the tack in US in the last 36 years i.e., Secretariat was produced from a mare that raced once or twice and earned zero. For the fans of Curlin, Invasor, Candy Ride, Zarkava, they were produced from unraced mares and their sires were from the Mr. Prospector line.

Take Control is from the Bold Ruler sire line via A.P Indy. This line has been MIA in the derby in the last 25 years. The last winner from this line was Swale in 1984. The line is overdue but it is unlikely that Take control will break the derby dormancy.

Coldfacts 09 Jan 2010 11:25 PM

Geronimo2123 ---  quote

"here is a stat to think about: since the year 2000, every horse that has won has been a single entry from a single barn-trainer". "no multiple entries have won. not one".  REALLY???????????

I saw Showing UP and Barbaro both run in the 2006 Derby. One winning, the other showing a great accounting of himself. Same owner, same trainer. What Derby were you watching in 2006 to make such an emphatic statement? Sorry to be the one to burst your bubble but you're wrong! Just like a lot of entries here blaming TP as if he ran the race himself! It takes a good horse and lots of racing luck to win the Derby. Sometimes the best doesn't always win. Case in point, Native Dancer. For my money, one of the greatest ever and the only race he ever lost was the Derby. Read his story, watch the race and you might understand the old adgage "racing luck". I'm not sure in my mind Todd has ever really had a Derby horse but that doesn't make him a bad trainer. Just to get a horse in the Derby is a noteworthy achievement. Every year, there are horses running in the Derby that people question their credentials but that's an owner issue not a questionable trainer. I've never heard a trainer say "I'm running this horse but the owner doesn't want me too".  As far as the Johnny V  bashers go, get a life! The ride on Rags to Riches was masterful! Curlins' jockey said if he had been on the outside, he would have won! Yeah, and if I had won last weeks Mega Millions jackpot, I'd be a gazillionairess, TP would get lots of horses from me and we (TP, JV and moi) would win the Derby. We would silence all the critics out there and then what would you do, bash Santa Clause and his eight reindeer ?.

Dona 10 Jan 2010 12:36 AM

Ranagulzion, Here are my views on the Todd Squad:

Eskendereya: His sire is a son of the great Storm Cat ( Big Negative) Neither Storm Cat nor his over 100 sons that visited the breeding shed have sired a derby winner. In fact, the great stallion is the only one that has sired the winner of a TC race i.e., Tabasco Cat.  His dam is by TC winner. (Big Negative)  Triple Crown winners have extremely poor records a broodmare sires in the derby and Triple Crown Races. Only two TC winners have been the broodmare sires for derby winners in the last 73 years (Count Fleet, 1966/War Admiral, 1957); none of the modern day TC winners have sired mares that have produced derby winners. Secretariat & Seattle Slew broodmares have combined for one Preakness & Two Belmont winners. Forget Affirmed. A win for Eskendereya would represent a breakthrough for the Storm Cat line. If the brilliant Bluegrass Cat could not succeed, this colt has no chance.

Discreetly Mine: His sire is a son of the great A. P. Indy (Big Negative); Neither A. P. Indy nor his sons have sired a derby winner. The great stallion sired two winners of TC races. However, none of his sons have come close. This sire line went MIA in the derby 24 years ago and has not been seen since. His dam is from the Damascus line that has never produced a derby winning broodmare. Damascus was brilliant but it appears his broodmare line has a strained relationship with the derby. Discreetly Mine is not a derby.

Super Saver: He is from a Derby wining Sire from the Raise A Native line (Big positive) The RAN line has produce winner of 42 TC races and 75 top three finisher in the last 31 years. His dam is by A.P. Indy (Big Negative) Broodmare sired by the big three i.e., Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and A.P. Indy broodmares have a stained relationship with the derby. Based on my records they have sired a combined 1,000 broodmare up to 2007 and none have produced a derby winner. He is not a derby horse.

Aikenite:  His sire Yet Its True hails from the dormant line in the derby. Horses sired by this stallion have never featured in derby contention. His dam is from the Hail To Reason broodmare line that featured once in the derby via Stop the Music dam sire of Giacomo. Stop the Music was a son of Hail To Reason. Silverado is a great grandson of HTR and cannot be considered to have the same influence. Aikenite is probably the worst Derby prospect of the lot.

Interactif: Son of Broken Vow a son of Derby winner Unbridled. Prior to 2009 the last time the son of a derby winner sired the winner of the event was 1986. Nijinsky a son of 1964 derby winner Northern Dancer was sire of derby winner Ferdinand. Without getting into this colt’s pedigree, do you believe that an event that took 23 year to recur will happen in consecutive years? Derby history suggests a resounding NO! His dam is from a broodmare sire line that has never featured in the derby. Is this the reason he does better on the turf? Forget this one he is the least likely to make the derby field.

Mission Impazible: Son of Unbridled Song. The great grandsons of Mr. Prospector have never sired a derby winner. This is alarming as this is the only category in which the lines has had no success in the TC races. If a member of the 2009 Unbridled Song squad did not win the derby, it is unlikely that this colt will do so in 2010.(Old fashioned, Dunkirk etc) His Dam by Hold Your Piece is interesting. This is an old dam line that goes back to the influential Princequillo. Pricequillo was the sire of Something Royal the dam of Secretariat. His second dam Classy Craft is a granddaughter Drone. Drone was the dam sire of derby winners Charismatic and Grindstone.

He has a strong dam line and is probably the best of the TP’s Squad. However, he is hindered by his sire.

Ibboyee: His sire hails from the Northern Dancer line. This line has featured in 4 derby winners in the last 23 year. The latest being Big Brown. However, Deputy Minister a grandson of the great ND is known for his exploits as a broodmare sire i.e., Curlin, Rags To Riches Jasil, Sarava. Neither he nor his sons/grandsons have featured as derby sires. (negative) His dam is from the Mr. Prospector broodmare line that appears to have come to life in 2006 (Barbaro) and has continued to feature i.e, Mine That Bird & Rachel Alexandra. In spite of this positive this colt is not a derby horse based on the Deputy Minister negative.

The derby is an event with a history that should not be ignored. The above horses do not fit the profiles of those that have been part of the history. Good Luck with which ever you choose to follow.  

Coldfacts 10 Jan 2010 2:02 AM

Dray,

There's something I'm a wee bit confused about.  You mentioned Pletcher's poor Derby/Triple Crown stats prior to the TC LAST YEAR, but didn't YOU PICK DUNKIRK, trained by Mr. Pletcher for the Derby? Perhaps Dunkirk's flop in the Derby has left you a little bitter?

GunBow 10 Jan 2010 4:10 AM

I'm pretty sure Pletcher will score a Derby win eventually.

This year I don't really know why, but I'm excited about American Lion in the Derby!! I also like Tiz Chrome. Tiz Now's babies look as amazing as ever so far! XD

Further back in my Derby list is Take Control as I've always been a fan of Azeri.

I doubt he'll be able to make the switch from maiden turf to dirt in time for the Triple Crown, but my other sentimental fav would have to be Lentenor. The whole world lost a treasure when Barbaro had to be put down...

LadyValtaya 10 Jan 2010 4:23 AM

Sorry if this is a duplicate, don't know if previous message was posted.

Fire Slam:

Just want to clarify that Bob Baffert is far from being a fan of synthetics.  In fact, in the book, "Talkin Horses", published by the Bloodhorse, Baffert voiced his displeasure that all 3 of the main SoCal tracks installed synthetics.

ColdFacts:

I too like Concord Point.  I was at Santa Anita opening day and was impressed by the move Concord Point put in on the turn and how he kept to his business down the stretch.  However, I would probably still have to rank him behind Tiz Chrome among the understudies behind Lookin at Lucky in the Baffert barn.  Sadly, another Baffert colt I really liked, Clutch Player, died of pneumonia last week.

And before folks pile onto ColdFacts, I do want to remind people that ColdFacts was one of the first, if not THE first person on this blog to tout Summer Bird last year.  ColdFacts was very enthusiastic about the Birdstone-Summer Squall mix, BEFORE the Arkansas Derby. Although Summer Bird didn't quite come through in the Derby, he ultimately proved himself the best 3 year old male.

GunBow 10 Jan 2010 4:28 AM

A couple of interesting facts about last year's Kentucky Derby:

1. 5 of the top 6 finishers made their final preps WEST of the Mississippi- Mine That Bird(2 races at Sunland), Pioneer of the Nile(2 races at Santa Anita), Papa Clem(Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Before that, the Louisiana Derby, litterally a few miles east of the Mississippi, but before that the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita), Chocolate Candy(Santa Anita Derby preceeded by 2 races at Golden Gate), Summer Bird(3 races at Oaklawn).

Of the top 6 finishers, only Musket Man prepped east of the Mississippi, but even his final prep, the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, wasn't really in the "East".  Thus, all of the top 6 finishers made their final prep outside the "East", either in the Mountain West(Mine That Bird), West(Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy) or Midwest(Musket Man, Papa Clem, and Summer Bird). However, prior to the Illinois Derby, Musket Man had been running at Tampa Bay Downs, definitely an "Eastern" track.  Not represented in the top 6 finishers were horses from the Florida Derby or any of the Gulfstream preps, the Blue Grass Stakes or Lane's End, or the Wood/Gotham.

2.  Of the top 6 finishers in last year's Derby, 4 had had extensive experience and success on synthetics.  Mine That Bird was the 2008 champion 2 year old male in Canada on the strength of impressive stakes performances on Woodbine's Polytrack.  Pioneer of the Nile had won 4 straight synthetic stakes prior to the Derby.  Chocolate Candy, 2nd to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, had won 2 stakes on Golden Gate's synthetic surface, and had run 3rd behind Pioneer in the Cash Call(Hollywood) Futurity on the Hollywood Park cushion track. Finally, Papa Clem began 2009 at Santa Anita, and prior to running 2nd in the Louisiana Derby and winning the Arkansas Derby, he had run 2nd to Pioneer in the Bob Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.  By the way, the 3rd place horse in the Bob Lewis, and runner-up in the Cash Call(Hollywood) Futurity, was I Want Revenge, the horse that would be the morning line Derby favorite after winning the Gotham and Wood on dirt.

Having lived in SoCal full-time the last 2.5 months, it seems that it is much easier for predominantly synthetic horses to win on dirt than it is for dirt horses to win on synthetic.  Zenyatta's Apple Blossom obviously comes to mind, but so does Informed Decision, a mare perfect on synthetic but who also won the gr.1 Humana Distaff at Churchill.  Albertus Maximus, the BC Mile(Synthetic) winner of 2008 won the 2009 Donn, while Two Step Salsa, 2nd in the 08' BC Mile(Synth) won the Godolphin Mile on the dirt at Nad al Sheba.  Of course, there is Well Armed, a gr.1 winner on synthetic who romped by 14 in the Dubai World Cup.  

Already mentioned were I Want Revenge(from Cali's synth to Aqueduct domination) and Papa Clem(from a solid 2nd in the Bob Lewis to winning the Arkansas Derby).  Papa Clem was actually the 2nd Cali synth horse in as many years to ship in and win the Arkansas Derby(Gayego in 2008).

Note also that Hold Me Back, winner of the Lane's End on Turfway's polytrack, ran a good 2nd in this year's Travers.  Also worthy of mention is Baffert's Tough Tiz's Sis, a filly that ran well behind Zenyatta in Cali last year and then won the gr.1 Ruffian at Belmont in impressive fashion.

GunBow 10 Jan 2010 5:11 AM

This is off subject, but the 5 year old mare, St Trinians, was ultra-impressive winning the listed Paseana Cap' at Santa Anita on Saturday.  Although she is not the tallest or biggest framed horse, and she runs with her head very low to the ground and has a little bit of an eggbeater motion on her right front, St Trinians is unquestionably talented.  She won the 8.5 furlong Paseana by almost 4 lengths in a time almost a full second faster than Neko Bay won the San Pasqual.  St Trinians' 3.75 length win in the Paseana is her 3rd blowout victory in as many races in the US, winning by 4 at Santa Anita last March and by 7 at Hollywood Park Dec 3.  Like turf races, blowout wins are rare on synthetics, so clearly this is a special filly. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in races like the gr.2 Santa Maria and gr.1 Santa Margarita, and think she has a chance to at least challenge Life is Sweet for supremacy of the SoCal older mare division.

GunBow 10 Jan 2010 5:35 AM

"Interactif--Forget this one he is the least likely to make the derby field."

Coldfacts 10 Jan 2010 2:02 AM

Coldfacts: You do realize that he has $200k in graded earnings already, which virtually guarantees him a spot in the gate if he runs a half decent race in the SA Derby, dont you? And even if he runs up the track in the SA Derby, he still might get entered. The least likley to make the field? I think not. Here's some advice: Use pedigree only as one tool for the Derby. There are many other variables that go into it. Graded earnings is just one of them.

Jason Shandler 10 Jan 2010 8:37 AM

GunBow a plastic trained horse will win the Derby when chickens learn to fly.  The first toss of the year is the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

draynay 10 Jan 2010 9:17 AM

Steve Stan--

Where did I say Storm Cat was crummy sire??? I said in my opinion he was over rated. In my opinion Forestry is over rated. Not saying they are crummy. They have been very useful sires.

Dont change words around when trying to blast some one.

Fire Slam 10 Jan 2010 9:27 AM

Cold Facts- nice breeding analysis of Mr Pletcher's horses.  But Jason is right in the fact that there are many other variables to consider.  Also, remember they said Mr Prospectors couldn't turf nor could they run a distance, and the Europeans showed us that they could.  Stranger things have happened than one of those sire lines breaking through.  I do like Interactif because I think he will like the distance.  He is nicely bred for the dirt.  It's just a matter of whether he will transfer that form.  And only he will answer that for us.

Ranagulzion- Happy New Year and welcome back.  Vale of Tears is an interesting horse given his first start was in July(?- you might know better than I), but I am a little worried about such turf breeding transfering to the Churchill dirt.  I too believe he would have no trouble with 10 furlongs.  Diesis and Kris are two of my favorites, and it's nice to see that Halling is doing well as a sire and now a broodmare sire.

Footlick 10 Jan 2010 10:27 AM

Jason, many thanks for the graded earning information, I was not focused on this category in my evaluation. I remain convinced that Interactif is not likely to make the derby in spite of his graded earnings. He appears to be better on turf and should be allowed to perform on the surface that best suits him. I am sure Mr. Pletcher does not want another of his charges to finish last in the derby. He does have the dubious distinction of saddling the last place finisher in three consecutive derbies. These last place finishers all won major derby preps but had no business being in the derby.

Although it may appear I am fixated on pedigree I am not. I am very focused on the history of this event. If a horse does not fit the history I tend to eliminate it as a possible. This event cannot be only handicapped by traditional means. However,  I am not crazy enough to ignore the performance of those that do not match the profile I find satisfactory.

I have a lot of respect for your knowledge of the sport and appreciate the issue you propose for comments. At your convenience I would appreciate your views on the two colts:

Marcello: Sired by 2001 champion 2YO Johannesburg. His dam Miramar Miracle is an unraced Affirmed mare. He is probably at the bottom of speedy Bob’s powerful list. Affirmed was the last TC winner and what a headline it would be if one of his mares produced a Miracle TC winner. Well the mare’s name contains the word MIRACLE. I think he is a dirt horse and will transform when he is placed on the traditional stuff. Affirmed must have something to contribute to the TC series of races. His mares are not hopeless as Breeders Cup Classic & Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect was produced from an Affirmed mare.

Piscitelli:  Sired by the late closing and now Turkey based Victory Gallop. His dam by Rayelle is by Relaunch who is one of four stallions that have sired the winner and broodmare of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. This colt was lost on the lead in the BCJ won by Vale Of York. Kent had no option but to go to the lead from the one hole. He never led a race in his previous four starts and must have been very confused. After being headed by Noble’s Promise he battled back to be beaten by less than a length. A closer that can lead is a dangerous race horse. This is a serious colt that has the profile of a derby winner. Relaunch is a son of In Reality whose sons Smile and Believe It were the broodmare sires of derby winners Smarty Jones & Real Quiet. Victory Gallop was a dead closer and this son of his has more tactical speed and just much stamina.

Coldfacts 10 Jan 2010 10:31 AM

Ranagulzion- Sorry.  cold Facts spoke about Vale of Tears not you.  My mistake.

Footlick 10 Jan 2010 10:39 AM

Well -- That was an interesting way to start this blog, throwing the bomb into the middle of the room! It definitely got the blood flowing! Sure Dray said "colt" and I cannot argue with the truth of his statement. Nevertheless Pletcher did win the Belmont. Al Bundy brings a good point that Bobby Frankel never won a TC race until finally Empire Maker and that horse might easily have won the Derby with a little better luck. Then along comes Mr. Wooley with Dray's favorite Derby winner, MTB. Does anyone want to compare those two trainers? Nothing against Mr. Wooley, but it seems to me that proves that at least a part of it is luck. No one can argue that Pletcher is not one of the best.

That being said, history certainly makes you ask do Baffert and Zito know something that Pletcher has not figured out.  Yet he once worked for a guy who sure knew how to win Derby's (Wayne Lukas).

IMO winning that race requires a lot of things coming together perfectly and there is certainly an element of luck in there as well. Pletcher is not alone as a great trainer who is still waiting.

Old Timer 10 Jan 2010 10:47 AM

To tie in what GunBow said - pertaining to it being easier for a synthetic-based horse to run well on dirt, than vice versa - to the subject of this blog, Pletcher said that while he doesn't necessarily like racing over synthetics, he does like training over it.  If it weren't for a possibly flukish performance in the Kentucky Derby by Mine That Bird, either Pioneerof the Nile or (if not for the affect of POTN drifting wide in deep stretch) Papa Clem would have won.  Three of the five top finishers were Cali-based horses, i.e. synthetic-based horses.  For all the vocal opposition toward synthetic tracks, especially of those on the West coast, it proved to be THE training surface for the '09 Kentucky Derby.

helsbelles 10 Jan 2010 11:41 AM

...and, of course, including the winner Mine That Bird, who was a synthetic-based champion in Canada as a juvenile, four of the top five finishers of the '09 Kentucky Derby were synthetic-based horses.  It is my hunch that, and I wish trainers like Baffert would verify this, it is because running successfully over synthetic tracks requires stamina, rather than just speed, and more importantly builds stamina.

helsbelles 10 Jan 2010 11:57 AM

Interestingly, it might also be easier for a synthetic-based horse to make the switch successfully to TURF, rather than vice versa.

helsbelles 10 Jan 2010 12:18 PM

Cold Facts- I forgot about Piscitelli.  He did run a gutsy race.  And obviously I haven't had enough coffee yet because my brain is a little scrambled, since I even got Vale of York's name wrong.  That's two wrong names so far this morning-lol.

Footlick 10 Jan 2010 12:24 PM

Coldfacts -

Your points are all well taken.  Personaly, I don't think a mare's earnings on the track have anything to do with her ability to produce a talented foal, or even a Derby winner. It may not have happened so far, but that's not to say it can't happen, though I'll agree in saying the odds are not very high.

As for A.P. Indy, I can't write him off. After all, his daddy sired over 100 stakes winners during a breeding career that spanned about 20 years.  And in 20 years, he only produced 1 derby winner.

Horse racing is a lot of breeding, a lot of training, and a WHOLE lot of luck, especially when it comes to the Derby. Finding THE Derby winner in a three year old crop is like finding a needle in a giant stack of needles.  99% of owners, trainers, sires, broodmares, etc.  will never have a Derby winner on their resume.  I always find it comical how we all debate back and forth about who's got a shot, who doesn't, and then BAM! Mine That Bird wins the Derby (if you picked him with supreme confidence that he was going to win it all, then I bow to you).

So, after all of that, and getting to my long winded point, I will continue to watch Take Control with interest.  His charge to the wire after running very green at the top of the stretch caught my eye, and at this stage in the game, that's really all I watch for.  By April, half of the horses we speak of will be off the Derby trail for one reason or another, and 10 more that no one has discussed at all will be on our radar. In my opinion, Take Control has as good a shot as any at this point, so we'll just have to wait and see.

Lil Darlin 10 Jan 2010 1:16 PM

Greg J

What Bank?  It's already 24 - 0 Baltimore and there is stil about 2 minutes left in the 1st quarter.  Talk about a shocker. LOL

LAZMANNICK 10 Jan 2010 1:45 PM

Jason do you know why they changed the Florida derby from five weeks out to six?

mr.ruffian 10 Jan 2010 2:18 PM

COLDFACTS,

Your response to me about the failures of Storm Cat and A P Indy in relation to the Derby is like preaching to the choir.  I've been a convert long ago Bro. Those two are great sires of stakes horses that mature later but don't fit the derby profile.  As with every rule there is usually an exception and I believe that Giant's Causeway has a very good chance of being the exception among sons of Storm Cat.

Your argument dismissing Eskendereya's Derby credentials from a pedigree standpoint is weak my friend, for the following reasons:

1) Giant's Causeway is still a relatively young sire and is already a proven stamina influence.  Therefore you need to give him a fair chance to prove himself the exception to the "Storm Cat" rule.

2) You can't use derby history spuriously/arbitrarily to say that if a certain outcome has never happened it may never occur and then, using the same premise, say that although a certain outcome occurred only twice in the last 73 years it may never occur again.  That is illogical and fallacious reasoning.  The correct conclusion from your angle of pedigree analysis should be that Eskendereya has an excellent chance now of being the third grandson of a Triple Crown winner (broodmare sire Seattle Slew)from a probability standpoint, to win the Kentucky Derby, given the many years that have passed since this outcome was last realized (a la Count Fleet & War Admiral).

3)The  pedigree (particularly the Female tail family) of Eskendereya is flowing with Derby-winner-producing credentials, if you recognize that Seattle Slew (Swale), Alydar (Alysheba), Northern Dancer (grand son Ferdinand), Ribot (grandson Pleasant Colony)are outstanding Classic influences.  And here's a principle of pedigree analysis that you may have overlooked: the class/quality of a thoroughbred comes largely from the Broodmare's family.  Therefore reconsider your assertion that "this colt has no chance."  

BTW was Bluegrass Cat the ultimate progeny of the Storm Cat line?  How would you conclude that ...and then make an inference re Eskendereya's potential, a classy son of the promising sire Giant's Causeway?  Beats me ...too cold to handle.

I'm trying to resist the temptation to engage you regarding Super Saver, suffice it to say that his sire Maria's Mon produced 2001 Derby winner Monarchos, his tail female family features derby-winner-producing sires Seattle Slew and Mr Prospector within the significant first three generations and Buckpasser, the outstanding Broodmare producer and Classic influence shows up 4(S)x 5(D)x 5(D).  Therefore this colt is Derby-qualified top and bottom. The APIndy factor as a broodmare-sire-negative is greatly outweighed by Mr Prospector and multiple doses of Buckpasser in his pedigree.  Ignore this colt at your handicapping peril.

I wouldn't argue for the other members of the Todd squad that you knocked down. We are ad idem concerning those BUT I noticed that you said nothing about RULE (grandson of Mr Prospector on his Sire's line and great grandson of Slewacide (broodmare sire of derby winner Funny Cide) on his Dam's side.  Your Todd Squad (hit)list was so comprehensive that I wondered whether you omitted Rule because you found his Derby pedigree-armour to be impregnable.  

Ranagulzion 10 Jan 2010 3:56 PM

Fire Slam, it was s-a-r-c-a-s-m. Oh and the end of a deleted portion of a comment. You said you never thought that highly of Storm Cat, so a sarcastic comment on my part.

Basically stating that some of your comments over the last few months makes a lot of your statements highly questionable.

But you and all the rest of the future HOF trainers on here like Todd will be, keep on giving your opinions on horses, trainers, studs etc.

Steve Stan 10 Jan 2010 8:05 PM

Oh and to compare Todd to a coach who can't win the Stanley Cup? Well we have more than one Stanley Cup in racing.

Also Todd has 125 horses at any given time that never will and never WERE destined to be Derby horses.

I figure he'll be like Wayne, when he wins one, they'll come in bunches. He's had some pretty decent finishes, places etc. For guys like Lukas the Derby and the 'classics' are the end all and be all and the main focus of his program.

For Todd, he has a huge number of clients who he wins a heck of a lot of money for and a heck of a lot of races. The ONE owner that he can win the Derby for, and will I'm sure, won't mean any MORE to him than his long term clients or the ones he wins the other Graded stakes races for. You folks just don't get the business end of this game I think.

Steve Stan 10 Jan 2010 8:21 PM

Training over synthetics is fine. Races should have an * by the winners name because its a fake surface.

OR, why not have your turf division, dirt division, and synthetic division? Its a totally different surface. Which, and I know this is going to bet folks fired up, brings me to this OPINION. Zenyatta beat a bunch of turf horses. She did not beat the best dirt horses in the world. Gio Ponti ran second, is has proven to be a monster on turf.

If you are training a horse that you think can be a KY Derby contender, why not prepare it on a surface similar to the one the KY Derby will be ran on??? You play like you practice.

Fire Slam 10 Jan 2010 8:24 PM

Mr. Ruffian: They changed the date of the Florida Derby in large part because the Louisiana Derby was moved to the same day and Gulfstream didnt want to compete.

Jason Shandler 10 Jan 2010 10:04 PM

LAZMANNICK,

   UGH, Just got back from the game, What a joke!  The Pats were terrible, Oh well, Always have next year.  BTW, I was talking about the now bankrupt bank :)

Greg J. 10 Jan 2010 10:21 PM

Steve Stan--you know so much more then everyone else when it comes to horse racing. I am ashamed of myself and all the other "you folks" who cant compare to you.

You did try to put words in mouth about Storm Cat. Dont retract now. Your a perfect example of someone who thinks they are more important then they really are.

When Todd P wins the Derby or gets in the habit of wining classic races, then you can run your mouth. Heck, he had a hard time winning small stake races with favorites at Gulfstream Saturday. Then again, Johnny V. didnt help him any. Maybe he should ship out west and ride G. Gomez first call. Thats the only jock that has won a classic race for him.

Fire Slam 10 Jan 2010 11:52 PM

FIRM SLAM

I'll bet Storm cat isn't as over rated as you are! You must be joking!

Mike Relva 11 Jan 2010 8:21 AM

HELLO  JASON:

Tell you what I'll do. If Pletcher win the Derby I won't post on your blog for THREE MONTHS. Last yr. Draynay stayed away for a month, will go for three. That's how confident I am that Pletcher won't find the winner's circle AGAIN this year on Derby day. Was feeling this confident two months ago regarding Zenyatta winning the Breeders'. lol

Mike Relva 11 Jan 2010 8:30 AM

Greg J 33-14! I hope you did not bet on that game. WOW.

Gun Bow- I was all over St Trinians in that race. She has done nothing but impress since coming to the states...

Billy's Empire 11 Jan 2010 9:12 AM

jason - did you watch the replay of the Eskendyra race? the offlee wild colt - middle of the nite broke last from the 12 post and still ran big losing by only 2 lenghts. watch this one

SSC 11 Jan 2010 10:21 AM

In the likelihood that a Todd squad horse wins this years Kentucky Derby, or better yet two of them cop the exacta, it's gonna be yippie!!! no bitter postings on this blogs for the remainder of the Triple Crown series, WOW! This Triple Crown season is gonna be better than I imagined.  What do you think Jason?  

Ranagulzion 11 Jan 2010 10:23 AM

SSC: Middle of the Nite is one of the 2YOs that I took a shot on in Vegas. Got him at 200-1 for $10 in November. Hope he improves.

Jason Shandler 11 Jan 2010 11:12 AM

Billy's Empire,

     Yup, Bet all my winning's from Saturday's races on the Patriots, lol.  Oh Well, Easy Come, Very easily gone...

     Thank God Football Season is almost over!

Greg J. 11 Jan 2010 11:29 AM

Mike Relva--

For $500,000 a pop, anything is over rated.

What big time star has he thrown, to justify $500,00. I mean major star. Dont throw out a few stake winners. I want stars like Cigar, Zenyatta, Rachel A, Tiznow, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and many more.

Cat Thief, Giants Causeway, and Tabasco Cat are really all I can think. There may be others. But really for $500,000 you would think there would be a Secretariat in here somewhere!!

Forestry, The Green Monkey, enough said.

OVER RATED!!!!!

Fire Slam 11 Jan 2010 11:42 AM

Mike Relva, you said it.

Fire Slam, you have quoted 'grooms' who brought Hal Wiggins' generosity and honesty into question, YOU have made nefarious and questionable comments about various people in the game, from someone's 'program' to heaven knows what.  

I didn't question your comment, I just joked on the fact that you think what is considered to be one of the greatest modern day stallions is 'overrated'.  That comment just begged for sarcasm considering the ridiculousness of the words.

I don't say I know more than other trainers in the game, but I darn sure know more than people who aren't even trainers.

This type of constant criticism of trainers out of ignorance, petty jealousy or whatever else drives it sure doesn't seem to be doing any favors for a game that most on here claim to love.  I've read that before on here and will continue to read it and write it myself as long as these trainers etc that Jason gets interviews with, continue to be unfairly attacked.

Jason a real interesting sentence in your story which I actually am not sure people even read, just see the name and attack. But this sentence:On Thursday, "Pletcher took time to talk about his top 2010 contenders". Apparently means nothing to some of your readers. Sorry for that because you try very hard to give them inside looks and interesting interviews, since frankly most of 'these folks' aren't likely to have a conversation with Todd or anyone else. I refer to it as 'these folks' because those of us in the game do speak with each other on occasion. Guys like you are the fans ears, eyes and voice.

Such a shame they don't seem to appreciate it.

By the way Fire slam, (boy that tells a bunch about you, SLAM is your name for sure) but are you a trainer? Especially a HOF or future HOF one? Because Todd is.

Steve Stan 11 Jan 2010 11:59 AM

One thing about this great race is that you should never say NEVER! Every time I hear someone say such and such has never happened it seems like the supposed "rule" is broken. Jason, by running this blog, and with some of the comments above, you may have given Mr. Pletcher the extra magic he needs to get his first winner. (not that I am superstitious or anything).

OLD TIMER 11 Jan 2010 12:06 PM

Greg: You were blinded by your fandom. The Patriots were limping into the playoffs--injuries, subpar defense, an average Brady. The Ravens were an easy bet to an objective gambler. Even me, as an Eagles fan, could see the Cowboys were the better team. So even though I hate them, I played them.

Jason Shandler 11 Jan 2010 12:28 PM

Jason,

    In hindsight, You are probably right, But, I was going by the fact they have not lost a home game all year and had not lost a home game in 32 years in the playoffs. Also, Thought Brady could pull one out, Trust Me, I didn't see them going farther then one win in the play-offs...

Fire Slam,

     Seriously?, Storm Cat over-rated?  Let's see, You are talking about a two time leading sire in North America.  He has Sired over Forty Grade 1 Winners, Over 120 winners of graded stakes races, 180 stakes winners worldwide who have earnings in excess of $140 million. That is just on the track, I am not even talking about his success with his son's at stud and the Progeny produced by his daughters. Here are some of his offspring that made more the one million on the Track: Sweet Catomine, Tabasco Cat, Storm Flag Flying, Sharp Cat, Seeking the Dia(Over $5 Million), Raging Fever, Mountain Cat, Market Force, Life is Sweet, High Yield, Good Reward, Giants Causway, Gaily Egret, Cat Thief, Bluegrass Cat.  Plus, There are many others who have exceeded the $500K in Earning's. So, Calling Storm Cat over-rated was laughable, Don't You think???

Greg J. 11 Jan 2010 1:15 PM

Before Sunday Silence met Easy Goer he had to dispose of the Lukas trained 2.9 million dollar yearling purchase Houston. In 1987 terms, this horse cost even more than Dunkirk.  At the same time, Whittingham is cranking up his Halo colt that was passed over twice at the sale and eventually sold for $50,000 back to the breeder with Charlie getting a piece of it.  Charlie was one known for not entering a horse in the Triple Crown unless it was going to run...as opposed to Lukas who ran them all.  Sure enough the two met in the Santa Anita Derby with Houston folding at the top of the stretch while Sunday Silence romps to a 8-10 length win.  We all know what happened next.

Householder 11 Jan 2010 1:34 PM

I would not bet a horse for the Derby that has not first run on synthetics.  The dirt horses seem a lot more "delicate" in handling changing track conditions.  The "synthetic specialists" looked pretty good on the "moo-goo" last go around.  

Householder 11 Jan 2010 1:37 PM

Greg:

Do you realize that you lost your million dollar bet (just joking) to a team with a quarterback rating of TEN for the game?  Could you imagine the difference for both teams if Rogers or Warner would have been playing (at least the way they did yesterday)?  I have always been a fan of Brady, but man did he ever make some bad decisions, things he would never do in the past.  Next week should be a hoot. LOL

LAZMANNICK 11 Jan 2010 1:41 PM

The San Rafael is this Saturday Jan 16th...I have not heard what is running yet.

Householder 11 Jan 2010 1:49 PM

Mine that Bird

Pioneer of the Nile

Papa Clem

Chocolate Candy

All "sythetic specialists?"  They put more than a dent in the Derby.  Pray for more goo and bad Beyers.  

Householder 11 Jan 2010 1:58 PM

Greg J--

I said major start!!!!!!!!! And yes I am yelling at the top of my lungs right now. Storm Flag Flying yes. I did say I knew there must have been a few I left off.

The MAJORITY of the other ones you listed above, really don't belong in the same breath as Cigar and Sunday Silence. I did list Giants Causeway.

Why would you list Bluegrass Cat? I asked to list major star. He is far from that. He was good, but wont be voted one of the greats.

Look at Curlin. By Smart Strike. His fee just recently went up due to Curlin. Heck, before the price increase, how many times could you have bred to Curlin, for $500,000.

Oh by the way, are there any serious colts/fillies on the triple crown trail this year? I mean serious contenders now?

Take Control (AP Indy), Looking at Lucky (Smart Strike), and Vale of York (Invincible Spirit????). There are no $500,000 stud fees on that list.

Fire Slam 11 Jan 2010 4:39 PM

Steve Stan--

You seem mad that somone is not willing to lay down and let you continue to think and act like your are so important.

Numbers speak for themselves. 1-for whatever the number is (40 +) is terrible. You can put whatever spin you want on it. Until Todd improves that numbers, owners who have an ambition to win Triple  Crown events, should look at all other options in terms of trainers.

Say what you want, but your not even half as important as you want people to believe. Now go bet your two dollars!

Fire Slam 11 Jan 2010 4:46 PM

GREG J

Sorry about N.E. I also like them. What do you think about the horse,Take Control? I've liked him for awhile now.

Mike Relva 11 Jan 2010 5:26 PM

An average Brady with 3 Superbowl rings playing with bruised (perhaps more than mere "bruised") ribs and a broken finger on his right hand...any other QB this decade match that, hmmm? I didn't think so.;-)

Greg, How about Welker #2 in Edelman, he sure was a bright spot!

da3hoss 11 Jan 2010 6:09 PM

Greg J.  I like the look of Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride) out of a Storm Cat mare.  Trained by Sadler, he hopped staight in the air going from maiden to Alw but look for him again by the end of this month.  I do however, like Lookin at Lucky's recent Cash Call.  He was into the race early.  Baffert is working with blinkers  trying to create a stalking speed type.  I think he is also out of a Storm Cat mare (don't quote me).  By far the most versitile out west and the one to beat.

Householder 11 Jan 2010 7:45 PM

I was wrong.  Looking at Lucky is not from a Storm Cat mare.

Householder 11 Jan 2010 7:48 PM

Ranagulzion,

Your points are well taken. I am guided to some extent by the history of the event as the majority of the recent past winners reflect similarity in their genetic profiles.  Before I give my evaluation of Rule I think I will try to get your focus off Eskendereya.  Giant Causeway is regularly bred to 200 or more mares each year. I realized the market is soft and he probably has been bred to just 100 plus in last couple of seasons. Irrespective, he is stallion that is over bred and the chances of him producing a genuine champion are remote. The Storm Cat arm of Northern Dancer just does not produce winners of Triple Crown races. On Hundred of Storm Cat’s son have gone to stud none have produced a winner of a TC races in the US. One Hundred strong cannot be wrong. Seattle Slew’s record reflects 444 dams that produced 2277 foals with 1348 runners. Only one of these runners won a TC race. Let face it, Eskendereya is a colt from an over bred stallion that is from a sire line that has had minute success in the TC races. His dam is from a band of 444 that have produced the winner of one TC race. The combination is not one for success.

If you are interested in a Giant Causeway colt that ironically is trained by Mr. Pletcher, try Connemara. His dam Satin Sunrise started 78 times suggesting she was a tough as nails. Pleasant Colony’s dam Sun Colony started 57 and there is some similarity. Sun Colony was sired by Sunrise Flight. Now there is an irony for you. He is 2 for 2 and has  more positive history than Eskenderey. His dam was sire by Mr. Leader a son of Hail To Reason. Stop The Music a son of Hail To Reason was the dam sire of Giacomo. The dam of 1952 Derby winner Decidedly started 69 times. The dam of Dark Star the only horse to defeat Native Dancer started 66 times. I do believe the record belongs to the dam of TC winner Count Fleet she started 85 times. Based on history he is a better prospect.

Rules: There a lot of positives about this colt but I think he will not see out the derby distance. In fact I think the colt I wagered on in the Delta Jackpot (Oak Motte) is better. Rule sire is a grandson of Mr. Prospector. The grandsons of the great stallion have been the most successful in the last 10 years. They have sired the winner of 15 TC races including 5 derbies. Roman Ruler must be very special as he started racing career with undescended testicle. He is now one of the leading freshman sires. I would like him more if Speedy Bob had not been his trainer.

His dam sire Personal Flag goes back to Damascus. It is surprising that neither Damascus nor his son, grandson, great grandsons have ever been broodmare sire of a derby winner. Damascus was a brilliant horse. If for no other reason I would Rule out Rule. Pardon the pun. His second dam was sired by Slewacide the only son of the great Seattle Slew to feature a broodmare sire of a derby winner. He is a nice horse by not a potential derby winner. Mr. Pletcher has quantity as usual but unlike previous years he does not have serious contenders. Take Pulsion over Eskendereya in FOY and step to the bank. If Revisit the Norfolk Stakes and focus on Pulsion. If Piscitelli is a starter he will be the one to beat.

Coldfacts 11 Jan 2010 9:26 PM

Fire Slam, you are really funny. YOU are the one who tried to make believe you knew a guy who told a guy that Hal didn't give the groom a cut. Renee had to come on to defend Hal. One among MANY of your stories from an inside point.

My original response to you was your ludicrous statement about Storm Cat. Another of the ones you have made on here. And then we have the ones about which Jockey's should and shouldn't ride blah blah blah.

You have presented yourself as someone who has worked for this trainer or that one and have an axe to grind against several. Not putting words into your mouth, just repeating what you wrote.

IF and that's a big one, If you ever had anything to do with racing my guess is you were let go because of your disgruntled attitude. Although I doubt you've ever even met a single person you talk about so knowlegeably.

Whatever Todd's owners or any of our owners want to do, I guarantee they wouldn't take a word of advice from negative Nellies like you, who has relatively little knowlege of the game, didn't you say you walked hots? What red hots?

For your information I don't bet. I'm sure if Jason thinks about it he can figure it out.

Steve Stan 11 Jan 2010 11:03 PM

p.s. Obviously with my admiration for those who have or had Derby contenders or winners I don't think I'm near the big shot that you think you are. Questioning HOF trainers (saw that on an earlier story) or future.

Or questioning a much more knowlegeable handicapper and a writer like Jason.

Steve Stan 11 Jan 2010 11:05 PM

COLDFACTS,

I have to tell you that I enjoy your posts immensely and share your great respect for the statistical view of Derby history in terms of the pedigree angle.  However I do find some of your conclusions and the rationale faulty, if not, plainly divergent from mine.  You also appear to knock down obvious precosity while searching for hidden talent in some obscure, untried or very lightly raced runners.  I respect your approach and admire your bravery.  Kudos to you for calling out Summer Bird last season except that he blossomed AFTER the Derby.  In the event of no injury issues to the colts that we have discussed including those under-the-radar ones you've mentioned, if your forcast prevail against mine this year you can sign me up as a student for next season (LOL).

Coldfacts, regarding Rule you have completely overlooked or ignored the fact that he was bred on a very similar configuration to Funny Cide (Distorted Humor, a grandson of Mr Prospector out of Belle's Goodcide by Slewacide).  His sire Roman Ruler appears to be a more speed throwing son of Mr Prospector but Rules has so far shown a similar speed and tenacity/gameness to Funny Cide and the ability to go two turns, an apparent trait of the Seattle Slew influence in the tail female family.  Damascus' genetic trait (his brilliance) have proven to be recessive over the years and will no stymie Rules' performances in my view.  Let's watch and see.  Good luck to you Bro.  

Ranagulzion 12 Jan 2010 12:34 AM

May 1st is less than four months away.

Some starters in the Derby will have been born between Jan. and Mar. Those born in April become a 3 yr. old just before the race of their life.  Some thoroughbreds are born in May.  (If the foal was born on May 2nd of it's 3yr. old year, does that make this horse ineligible to run in the May 1st Derby?)

Probably.

But I have to allude to the fact that

those horses whose birthdays are just a

few weeks or days prior to the Derby date, most certainly are at a disadvant-

age, due to their physical immaturity.

  Horses continue to grow physically

until fully developed at age 5. Aa a 3 yr old, they grow fast.  Wouldn't one

assume that a horse born 3-4 months

earlier than another would be more apt

to be physically superior, no matter what it's pedigree? Sure would like to

hear some comments on this.  

sleepwalk 12 Jan 2010 12:57 AM

Happy to see Eskendereya back on track. I'll put him in my Derby picks with Take Control.

MRO 12 Jan 2010 8:21 AM

FIRE SLAM

You made youself look very foolish last year with the stupid remark concerning Mr. Wiggins. Now,your comment regarding Storm Cat. Are you trying to top yourself from last year,is that it? Nice.

Mike Relva 12 Jan 2010 10:01 AM

Charlie Whittingham was one of the finest trainers ever and he didn't win the Derby until he was in his 70's with Ferdinand and then 3 years later won it with Sunday Silence.  It was a long time coming for him.

MonicaV 12 Jan 2010 10:57 AM

Pletcher can get them ready to sprint real fastbut that about it-dont sent them horses past 7 furlongs-they get beat and are always being bet

steve s 12 Jan 2010 1:38 PM

You didn't even mention Battle Plan who ran  one mile 1:35:70 at Gulfstream

steve s 12 Jan 2010 1:55 PM

I see draynay's been laying in the weeds waiting to pounce on something with all his negative b.s. This time it's Pletcher. If memory serves me nay nay was on the Dunkirk bandwagon for as long as he was on any bandwagon last year. Wasn't Dunkirk trained by Pletcher and why would nay nay back him at any time if he really thought Pletcher was never going to win a Triple Crown Race with a colt? It's a good bet that one of the 50-60 colts draynay backs at sometime this year (some things never change) will be one trained by the man he says can't win the Derby.

Pletcher is a world class trainer, one of the best, to count him out for any reason is foolish with the talent he is given to work with. I don't like his record in this situation either but it's not the only factor to consider.

draynot 12 Jan 2010 2:43 PM

Seriously,it takes a whole lot of luck combined with optimum favorable circumstances/conditions to win the Derby,not solely the 'pedigree profiles' of said contenders.All horses can run the 1 1/4mile distance,some just manage to run it faster depending on the pace scenario & trip.I find it funny,if not telling,when the 'Pedigree people' suppose their picks/analysis for the Derby,then disappear when their 'historically correct genetic profiled' horses are nowhere to be found after the Derby.  

Relva,stop it!...Take Control made his debut only 3wks ago,I highly doubt that you've "liked him for awhile",..Mr. Bandwagon-man. lol

Jason,..Cardinals will be in the NFC Championship game again,vs. the Vikings(I told u).Them being a 7point underdog to the struggling Saints is a joke!All they have to do is tackle better which is easily correctable.Cardinals 34-Saints 17, Vikings 27-Cowboys 13. AFC) Colts 24-Ravens 20(or vice- versa),Chargers 28-Jets 10.  BAM!!

Carlos in Cali 12 Jan 2010 2:59 PM

Carlos- not all horses can run 10 furlongs in top company, but I agree that there are other factors involved.  Class, temperment, agility all need to be part of the equation.  We tend to breed alot of 9 furlong horses in this country, so it's the horse with that extra on that day that wins.

Footlick 12 Jan 2010 6:48 PM

Draynot seems like you miss the point which is par for the course.

Pletcher is a very accomplished trainer but a 0 for 44 record with colts in Triple Crown races proves he has a problem training young ones to win those big races.

Draynay 13 Jan 2010 7:47 AM

"Draynot seems like you miss the point which is par for the course.

Pletcher is a very accomplished trainer but a 0 for 44 record with colts in Triple Crown races proves he has a problem training young ones to win those big races.

Draynay 13 Jan 2010 7:47 AM"

No it just says he hasn't had the right one. Most trainers and owners search for that one horse like the Holy Grail.  His owners want to give it a shot, even if not the best horse for the conditions. The thing about the KY Derby is almost like basketball. You have one trained, clicking on all cylinders and any horse can jump up and win it. Particularly in recent history when there hasn't been any real standouts, most years.

Guess you could also say that Asmussen with the 500 horses he has should have a KD winner by now. He's been training on his own a lot longer than Todd.

Tim G 13 Jan 2010 12:14 PM

Draynay--

Agreed. 0-44 is proof. If you get the best bred horses, and money is not a problem with clients, and you still cant break through in the Triple Crown races, then something is not right.

If im not mistaken, G. Gomez rode Rags to Riches in the Belmont?? If so, that is the only Triple Crown race he has won. Maybe, he should look at riding some one else first call instead of Johnny V.

Johnny V. had trouble winning on favorites at Gulftream Park last weekend. It was pentiful. Also, remember what happened when Johnny V. took over Afleet Alex for one race? Dead last. Now the horse did come out with a breathing problem, so they say. He then comes back to win the Arkansas Derby under Jeremy Rose.

Fire Slam 13 Jan 2010 12:59 PM

Stan--

Your so right. I have never even been on the backside of a track. You know way more then me and anyone else.

I dont know Peaches the assistant for Brett Calhoun, I dont know Jose, the long time assistant for the late Bobby Frankel, I dont know Brett the assistant for Hal Wiggins, dont know David Carroll trainer of "The Slam", dont know C-Bo or Cecil Borel, who grew up with T-Red Bernis--top jockey at the old miles park in Louisville, Kentucky years ago and use to be agent for Tracey Hebert. Also, I never fixed feed for the late Doc Harthill as a kid at the old clinic that burned years ago right by Churchill Downs, and Harry Trotseke who is that?

Your right, I have never been to the track.

Fire Slam 13 Jan 2010 1:08 PM

CARLOS IN CALI

Look "genius" since you always know so much why don't you ask DRAYNAY if I didn't ask him around five weeks ago what his opinion was of Take Control. BTW,I'm not a bandwagon jumper!

Mike Relva 13 Jan 2010 2:09 PM

I think Mike and Steve are both saying that Fire Slam, you have repeatedly claimed to know more dirt and inside information,i.e. GOSSIP, always negative, than anyone else on here.

The comments made by some people that you have taken exception to aren't being negative or trying to start rumors. They are stating the facts as they see them in their own operations and those of their colleagues with colleague being the operative word here.

Truthfully, there are lots of hanger-ons who can name grooms. Assistant trainers? No brainer.

The proof is that you keep making these off the wall comments. Never anything positive just trying to act like you know the deep dark secrets.

As far as the business end of it? No most non-trainers and non-owners don't really know all the inner workings of it. Not even the hotwalkers, exercise riders or grooms.

Hmmm, I know BRET Calhoun really well, guess I'll ask him if he knows a really negative guy/girl who may have tried to work on the backside. It's the truth that your disgruntled, negative attitude wouldn't do well back there. Or better yet maybe he'll come on here and answer???

Tim G 13 Jan 2010 2:24 PM

Relva, whatever...he made his debut 3wks ago,not 5. Or did you have your eye on him 2wks before he even started?...I doubt it.Get over yourself,Nostradamus.

Carlos in Cali 13 Jan 2010 3:07 PM

CARLOS IN CALI

Ok,so that's your spin? You aren't going to ASK DRAYNAY? Why not,are you afraid that I'll prove you wrong? lol

Mike Relva 13 Jan 2010 5:53 PM

CARLOS IN CALI

Ok smart guy,look for:Horse of yr. Debate-Why Do We Care So Much?

21 Nov. 2009,4:29pm

BTW, You owe me an apology!

Mike Relva 13 Jan 2010 6:13 PM

Fine,...my sincere apology goes out to everyone who reads your posts. There!Happy?   lol,that's my spin. Plus,I did ask Dranay...he said he didn't know who the hell you were.

Carlos in Cali 13 Jan 2010 7:42 PM

CARLOS in CALIF

You "lit the fuse" I was addressing Greg when you read  and decided to do what you do best,run your mouth. You were wrong little man. lol Maybe you took to many shots to the head when you were supposably playing football!

Mike Relva 13 Jan 2010 9:15 PM

Way to go Tim G!! Yea baby!!! How do you know there just rumors or dark secrets,what if they are true??

Feels like the twilite zone!

Fire Slam 13 Jan 2010 9:24 PM

Uh FS? I've been around the race track for a LONG LONG time. Your Wiggins story? PURE garbage, your comments about various trainers and jockeys? Pure speculation and opinion. I know most of what you say is speculation and someone trying to be in the know. Give me your real initials and I'll ask the people you claim to know if they really know you.

 

Tim G 14 Jan 2010 1:10 AM

TIM G

I agree w/ you. Also,If I were him would be ashamed for the fact of "called out" last yr. by Mr Wiggins wife.

Mike Relva 14 Jan 2010 9:55 AM

CARLOS IN CALI

I expected as much,taking the cowards way out by refusing to admit that I posted back on Nov w/ an eye on Take Control! What's your comment regarding my post in Nov? Oh,that's right no comment! What were you saying? No way "that I could have my eye on Take Control prior to his race".

Mike Relva 14 Jan 2010 10:10 AM

Relva,

Pat yourself in the back.And get a new comedic writer,it's not working...lol

Carlos in Cali 14 Jan 2010 2:31 PM

CARLOS

Obviously you have a problem when it comes to admitting you were wrong. Whatever!

Mike Relva 14 Jan 2010 3:00 PM

yea Tim G!! Go baby Go.

Fire Slam 15 Jan 2010 12:19 AM

Connemara lost the Cal Derby.  Seemed to have plenty of chances to put away Sadler's former Maiden Claimer.  

Householder 19 Jan 2010 7:53 PM


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