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Could Christine be the Next Rachel?

A filly like Rachel Alexandra comes around once in a blue moon. It is not reasonable to think that another 3-year-old filly will surface any time soon and do the things she did. But we can still hope, can't we?

That is what is so great about this time of year--we get to see young 3-year-olds transform into stars right in front of our eyes as we march towards the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.

Over the past week, a couple different people brought to my attention a filly who has the look of a future star. Her name is Christine Daae (pronounced die-a and named for a character in the famous play Phantom of the Opera). She is very well bred, by Giant's Causeway--out of the Dehere mare Descapate. She is the first winner from 12-year-old Descapate, who was a two-turn stakes winner at Fair Grounds during her short career. The mare has been bred to some pretty good stallions so far--A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Bluegrass Cat, Dixie Union, and Bernardini in 2010.

Christine Daae made what can only be described as a sensational maiden start on Jan. 15 at Gulfstream Park. Here is a video of the race so you can see for yourself.

As you can see, Christine Daae rated just off the pace of a very quick half-mile and ran an easy six furlongs in an eye-popping 1:09-flat. She was not asked for very much in the final furlong and still recorded a final time of 1:21.67 which is less than four-fifths of a second off the seven-furlong track record. She earned a 92 Beyer for the spectacular effort. It was the second start of her career, as she finished fourth on Hollywood Park's synthetic surface last summer. Cleary, she is a different horse as a 3-year-old.

I was so impressed by Christine Daae's maiden win that I decided to call her trainer, Patrick Biancone, to find out all I could about her. Biancone said the filly, who was bred by WinStar and was a $100,000 yearling, was purchased privately as a 2-year-old for $400,000 by Richard Giacopelli's Kona Stables and Michael Imperio. I also spoke to Giacopelli, who owns a construction business and has been in the racing business for two decades.

Giacopelli said Biancone picked her out. "I have an eye for concrete. Patrick has the eye for horses," he said."

"I watched her work in January and I was very impressed with how fast she was," Biancone said. "We've liked her for a long time. She wasn't quite ready physically (in her first race). She has really matured since then; she's getting really strong.

Biancone said the maiden win confirmed how good they thought she was.

"We were confident; we didn't expect quite that kind of effort, but we felt she would run well. She broke well, she rated, and was very professional."

Biancone said they will skip the allowance conditions and put Christine Daae right into stakes company. They have picked the one-mile Davona Dale (gr. II) as her next spot on Feb. 27 at Gulfstream.

Biancone confirmed that they are already thinking Kentucky Oaks with the filly. When I asked him the last time he had a 3-year-old filly as talented as Christine Daae in his barn he said, "I don't think I've ever had one."

When I asked him if she is better than any of the 3-year-old colts in his barn he said, "I would say so. And I have some pretty good ones."

When I asked him if she won the Davona Dale and maybe a race like the Bonnie Miss (gr. II) in March, if they would consider running her against colts he said, "I think that is a premature question. At this stage, we will take it step by step. We'll talk after every race."

I admit, I may have jumped the gun with that last question, but what the heck, I had to try. I also tried with Giacopelli, who was understandably cautious but didn't rule out anything.

"When I saw her win like that I said, ‘I think we have a stakes horses on our hands," said Giacopelli, who lives in New Jersey. "I guess Patrick is already thinking Oaks. (As far as the Derby), anything is possible. Maybe we're having a run of great fillies right now, who knows? But in this business, anything can happen. I just hope she can stay healthy and we'll go from there."

If nothing else, I look forward to watching this filly at Gulfstream this winter and spring. It was only one maiden win around one turn, but she has the look of something special. I know I will be putting a couple bucks on her in the Vegas sportsbooks--maybe for both the Oaks and the Derby. Stay tuned.

 

 

316 Comments:

She looked pretty good, but i can't wait to see hotdixiechick get back to the track.  Her two wins at saratoga put her at the top of her class imho.  

Dave 20 Jan 2010 3:29 PM

That is exactly what is needed...

As these races develop ... post the videos in the headlines so people can get to know who are the up and comers... and they can become a topic of conversation....

When the race results are buried in the hieroglyphics of the local

sports page other than the real serious fan... most will never hear about the winner....

So now we have a name to watch...

Christine Daae

Bob Z 20 Jan 2010 3:31 PM

The 3 year old filly I think might be the best of all is Blind Luck.

Her Hollywood Starlet race was the best 2 year old race of any sex last year.

AnneM 20 Jan 2010 3:35 PM

Jason,

Very impressive win by Christine Daae. Thank you for posting the race and for giving us something else to think about. I was getting cranky on the other subject.

Could we be so lucky as to have another filly superstar again this year? I must admit that early in the year my focus has always been with the colts...2009 has opened my eyes a great deal. These blogs have also made me pay more attention to the rest of the racing world. Thank you for broadering my horseracing horizon!

Zookeeper 20 Jan 2010 3:39 PM

Pretty filly, but I just don't know about Giant's Causeways--I (perhaps unfairly) associate brittle, flash-in-the-pan First Samurai, with all GC's get.

Jacqui 20 Jan 2010 3:41 PM

As a longtime fan of Phantom of the Opera, I'd have to add this girl to my VS even if she'd come in last.  Can't wait to see how she goes!

Heather 20 Jan 2010 4:00 PM

I like her breeding.  Giant's Causway is pretty versatile as a sire, Dehere is a good broodmare sire, she can obvioulsy run and you don't really expect the Giant's Causways to sprint that well- at least I don't.  Also, she should be a multiple surface threat if it comes to that.  I have to wait and see Hot Dixie Chick to stretch out but she was exciting at Saratoga.  And I agree that Blind Luck has been very impressive once she stretched out.  I know it's early but it looks like a good year so far.  I have to wait until I get home from work to watch the race though.  Can't wait.

Jason- thanks for the new blog!!!!

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 4:02 PM

Once in a blue moon? But we did have a blue moon on new year's eve so anything is possible....

joanna 20 Jan 2010 4:02 PM

She look very good. But I think RA lost her maiden. So she doesen't remind me of her. She remind me more of Curlin romping in his maiden at Gulfstreem.

zambito 20 Jan 2010 4:03 PM

Wonderful article Jason thanks for the interview and thanks for asking for the moon.  When you see a 3 year old filly run for the first time all year and post a 109 like its nothing look out.  She looks better then any male I have seen and I have yet to see one post anything better then 109 and I doubt I will  She looks every bit the part of Rachel Alexandra Jr. great job Jason !

draynay 20 Jan 2010 4:18 PM

TC Talk, how about Jackson Bend racing this week in the Holy Bull. He is going to be a huge favorite... I guess we will see what he is made of.  Dublin worked a bullet 1:00 flat yesterday, and is gearing up for his return to the races. Lights out Lidge and Mykindacandy have been training nicely as well at Oaklawn, so keep a lookout for these two colts. The season is heating up.!!!!

Billy's Empire 20 Jan 2010 4:25 PM

Anne M.  Agreed!  Blind Luck blew Amen Hallelujah off her feet in 141.96.  Amen came right back to score the San Ynez (Gr 2) the other day.  Hollendorfer has been know to train a few good Grade 1 girls (Hysterical Lady).  

Householder 20 Jan 2010 4:40 PM

Jason.  Thanks for a new blog.  :)

stardustyrose 20 Jan 2010 4:49 PM

Since this is Triple Crown Talk, I wanted to let everyone know that Take Control is out of the Derby picture due to sore shins.  Baffert said he'd be out for about 60 days

Alisha 20 Jan 2010 5:05 PM

Jason, they need to enter a filly like this in all three legs of the triple crown. I say lets see if a filly can win all three races against the colts....

carolyn 20 Jan 2010 5:07 PM

Jason,

    Very impressive win by Christine Daae,  Thanks for the interview and NEW subject matter :)

BTW,

     Yes, I am biased, BUT, Lentenor just won in amazing fashion, By 5 lengths!!!, A Third, Second, and a First in first three starts.  That's All I will say....

Greg J. 20 Jan 2010 5:31 PM

Blind Luck broke her maiden by 13 1/4 at Calder.  Hollendorfer is talking Las Virgenes with the goal of the Kentucky Oaks.  

Householder 20 Jan 2010 5:43 PM

What's going on with all these girls, kickin butt and taking names? It was certainly an impressive race, BUT, I'll hold off on visions of Rachel Jr. until at least her next one. I'll tell you what though, if she IS a little Rachel let's hope her owners aren't opposed to running in the Derby!

Lil Darlin 20 Jan 2010 5:44 PM

Lentenor looked good today but to say that he will win the derby is a bit of a stretch. At least he found a race finally and he looks like he might be better on dirt. Your derby winner just ran in the smarty jones stakes ....DRYFLY! Watch the video again it looks like calvin borel in the mother goose! lol!

It aint easy being good 20 Jan 2010 5:44 PM

Greg J.  I see you over here too.  I am still pretty hyped.  Boy did he win that race or what?  Pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwww.  :)

stardustyrose 20 Jan 2010 5:55 PM

Get ready for all of the hypered posts from the Friends of Barbaro...

Do thine eyes deceiveth me?...I sure hope reports of Take Control's set back is false!!....@#$%*&@#$%&!!!!!!!!!! Dammit.

Carlos in Cali 20 Jan 2010 6:02 PM

Dryfly, are you serious?  He ain't getting a mile and 1/4.  

Can't wait to see jackson bend run in the holy bull.  I've been high on him since he came rolling in the frank gomez to nip d'funnybone.  And his win in In Reality showed me alot.  Stumbled badly at the start, then when Thank U Phillipe came at him, he showed the heart of a champion to hold him off and win going away.

Dave 20 Jan 2010 6:34 PM

Greg J.,

Lentenor did look very good. I know you like him a lot. Wishing him much luck and continued success. :)

Too bad about Take Control. Glad they are taking care of him. His dam Azeri gave me so many happy moments. I'm still mourning her departure to Japan. This is a Horse of the Year people! I think it's a crying SHAME... With her first foal being a promising runner, her potential as a broodmare looked really good. Shades of Sunday Silence...

Hope Take Control heals well. If he is anything like his dam, we are in for a treat.

Zookeeper 20 Jan 2010 6:35 PM

I would like to see some girls in the Derby preps "Winning Colors" style.  

Take Control is out.  

Most trainers would kill for Baffert's junior varsity team (e.g., horses like Conveyance).

Householder 20 Jan 2010 6:37 PM

Alisha- Well, it was alot of talk after just one race.  and I think he'll be better with a little more maturity.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 6:41 PM

   Sorry to hear about "Take Control's" shin injury, Hope he heals quickly and comes back this summer.

Greg J. 20 Jan 2010 6:46 PM

Carolyn- Genuine Risk ran 1-2-2 in the TC.  Winning Colors was the only other filly in my memory who ran in all three.  It's tough on all the horses, but it takes a very special filly to run in all three.  3 tough races in the span of 5 weeks at challenging distances.  

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 6:47 PM

"I don't think I've ever had one."  

Didn't Biancone guide the filly All Along through a pretty good 3 year old campaign including winning the Arc and eventually HOY in both France and the U.S.?  I think this was pre Breeder's Cup (early 80's.)  Do I have the wrong trainer?

Householder 20 Jan 2010 6:56 PM

That's what I love about January and February. All that potential and hopes and dreams just brimming over. Going to be another fun ride.

Tiznowbaby 20 Jan 2010 7:14 PM

Pretty girl. I'll keep my eye on her. But if she is that good, I hope she is considered for the Triple Crown races. I wish Rachel's previous owners had put her in the TC races. We would have had a Filly win the Triple Crown. I have no doubt about that. I can't think of anything more exciting in racing.

Ida Lee 20 Jan 2010 7:26 PM

Carlos in Cali,

    Come on now, One must give Lentenor his just due for three impressive starts.  I will keep my comments here regarding him to a minimum, That is, Until we get closer to the Triple Crown.  Just hope Jose Lezcano and Alan Garcia are both alright, Both were unseated in different races, Also hope the filly "Cumano" is alright(Alan Garcia's mount).

Greg J. 20 Jan 2010 7:39 PM

I'm just not sold on Conveyance yet.  The way people have been talking, you might get the impression he's another Congaree, and he hasn't shown that yet.  Maybe it's just me being cautious though.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 7:40 PM

Householder- Yes, he trained All Along and Tryptich, who were two top drawer fillies.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 8:09 PM

I know, footlick. It is very challenging on a filly. but I believe that a filly could one day do it...

On another note,  What's the chances that the mare (?) could run over in the Arc? I would love to see that. I believe she could handle it. I see on some of your posts that you like european racing, I do to, especially STS...I wish they would mate him with the mare..eventually..  

carolyn 20 Jan 2010 8:10 PM

Christine looked good but just wait until she faces Crisp and Blind Luck, then we'll see how good she is.

PS:  I think Crisp will win the Oaks.  Blind Luck is tough but Crisp just has that champion look to her.

Crispy Cris 20 Jan 2010 8:30 PM

Carolyn- I'd rather not talk about either Zenyatta or Rachel on this blog.  If you look at my posts on the other blog, you will see what I think.  This blog is for the pursuit of the Triple Crown.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 9:08 PM

They are going to mate Vodka, the Japanese champion and Japan Cup winner, with STS.  After she runs in Dubai.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 9:18 PM

The 70's was the decade of the triple crown... maybe this time it's all about the girls!! Great post, can't wait to see her next start!

Christine 20 Jan 2010 9:21 PM

Thanks Jason,for pointing out Christine Daae. Her win was very impressive indeed, and she is a good looker. Hopefully she is good enough as time passes, to be considered for the TC. More fillies!!

sweet terchi 20 Jan 2010 9:58 PM

I want Looking For Lucky to win the triple crown. Now, I hope the racing god's will grant me my wish, and remove that terrible damn curse they have bestowed upon the triple crown races. What did they do wrong after, before, or during the last triple crown 32 years ago to make the god's penalize us this long....My gosh, if Massuchusetts can have a republican senator after 40 years or whatever, then gosh can't we have just one triple crown winner after 32 years?  I hope that before the end of time..we witness a triple crown winner!!  just one more..if nonever after that...

carolyn 20 Jan 2010 10:42 PM

Just got home and watched it.  Nice win, always in hand, very easy.  Looks like a nicely built filly too.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 11:08 PM

Christine look very impressive. All I am wondering is Jess Jackson, IEAH stables or goudophin going to buy this horse. It looks like it every year we have some group buy a horse on the derby and oaks trail.

RJPPDP 20 Jan 2010 11:13 PM

until I see crisp or blind luck run a 109 flat I will have my money on c. daae !

draynay 20 Jan 2010 11:38 PM

RJPPDP- that made me laugh!  Sadly there is so much truth to your statement.

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 11:38 PM

Billy's Empire- If you're on here, what horses do you have running soon?

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 11:40 PM

Also, Winslow Homer looks like he's thrown to the wolves in the Holy Bull.  Talk about a nice field!

Footlick 20 Jan 2010 11:41 PM

Well I bet as we all speak, each one or all three names mentioned are checking into it....

carolyn 20 Jan 2010 11:51 PM

Lots of love to Take Control from me.  Easy does it.  Just enjoy your apples, carrotts & lots of peppermints.  

stardustyrose 21 Jan 2010 1:26 AM

Giant's Causeway was one of my favorite race horses.

He is my favorite sire, to see him have another possible star makes my week.

Tammy 21 Jan 2010 3:01 AM

Carolyn, there is no curse on the Triple Crown...just not a horse good enough (yet) to join the other 11 elites...;-) That's why it's the "Crown Jewel" of racing.

Rachel 21 Jan 2010 5:33 AM

If she can carry that kind of speed and keep running over a mile you may have uncovered something Jason. I expect she will cruise in the Davona Dale, it's her next out where she stretches further that will reveal what they really have.

Every year (remember Mr. Fantasy last year?) a horse or two will come along who looks like the next coming of let's say RA for now and proves to be a bust beyond certain company or distance. Only time will tell but this one sure looks good for now.  

I think we will see more and more 3 yr old Fillies challenging the Colts in the future and in some cases succesfully. Imagine that a horse was so good that she changed the approach to 3 yr old campaigns forever. RA may have done so already. Historicaly that would be far more impressive than any of her victory's last year including her HOY honors.  

the_wiz 21 Jan 2010 8:34 AM

Footlick,

looks like the two fillies are gearing to run at Oaklawn, Tiz Miz Sue, and Sue's Update. They are both out of the mare Sue's Good News. My parents are at the farm in Oklahoma now, and they are trying to find some races. I will keep you updated. The 3yo colt is in Florida and should be looking to break his maiden in the next two weeks. Cross my fingers. The syndicate is buying two more horses privatley, a filly and a Bernstein colt. You can get in on a small percentage (2.5%)if you want on either. let me know and I will point you to the website

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 8:44 AM

hey Everyone, I am going out on a limb here and picking William's Kitten in the Holy Bull. Eclipse award jockey in Leparoux, the best owners IMO, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, out of Kitten's Joy, and has been working nicely. Mike Maker and Julien win together at a nice clip, so I say what the heck. I still love Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend and Piscatelli, but there may not be much value there. Have to go with the price early in the year and start building that bankroll for the First weekend in may.

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 9:07 AM

Rachel: for the record, we should have had a Triple Crown winner with Afleet Alex.  But due to the use of a RABBIT in the Derby the race was ruined and we ended up with a fluke champion.

Draynay 21 Jan 2010 9:56 AM

Speaking of William's Kitten, i really liked the move he made in the KJC.  

On a side note about the Ramseys and their kittens joy offspring.  Do they need to name every one, someone's name kitten.  It is getting super annoying.  If they wish to have kitten or joy in there somewhere, that's fine, but the same way everytime, it is driving me crazy.

Dave 21 Jan 2010 10:27 AM

Billy's Empire- Thanks for the offer.  But being an artist, I have nothing to spare at the moment.  My life tends to be either flush and buying art supplies by the truckload, or not flush and buying art supplies by the truckload!  I would love to be in a syndicate with a horse someday though.  Knowing me, it will end up being a Euro-lol!  Keep us posted on when they are all running.  Do you favor any sire in particular?  Do you homebreed at the farm or just foal them there with a broodmare band?  Good luck and hope your horses all return safe and sound after each race.

William's Kitten is a decent  horse, I love the sire, and his best races so far look to be on dirt, so that's promising.  The horse does have great connections- all class.  I would like to see a softer spot for Winslow Homer.  There's plenty of time to run at this level.  This is a deep, tough field.  I really liked his last race, but this is a big step up.  I would have liked to see another allowance, but Tony Dutrow knows his horse and I think he will be one of the top 3 yr olds, but I could have just cursed him too-lol.  If I was betting, I would bet  Piscatelli even though he will be a shorter price.  He was all guts in the BC Juvenile and didn't give up when challenged.  I liked his race and liked the fight he showed.  By Victory Gallop, the more distance the better and now maybe they know he doesn't have to be 14 back!!!  Good luck with William's Kitten!

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 10:35 AM

I might be biased because I'm standing right in front of Blind Luck's stall as we speak. The last horse to make a move like she made in the Starlet was Vigors, do you remember him in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap? Crisp or a horse that just broke her maiden sprinting in the same league as Blind Luck? Huh? 2 Grade I wins at l 1/16 miles at two different tracks, 3rd with more trouble than Lookin At Lucky in the Breeder's Cup, wins at 4 different tracks and all that gets is 2nd to She Be Wild by a margin of 171-41 in the Eclipse voting? A joke!

dfw 21 Jan 2010 10:49 AM

Well, there is a 2yo filly by Indian Charlie on the farm, a 3yo filly by Tiznow, and a 4yo filly by Medaglia D'oro. Right now, we are looking for the sire that will give us a colt, HA. There is also a carson city filly with Lil E T as grandsire, so really none in particular, just good pedigree and one that will produce a colt darnit!!!

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 11:16 AM

dfw- I also think that Blind Luck was the best 2 yr old filly in the country.  But that's the way it goes.  She can run a stretch, maybe not quite as well as Vigors-lol- but we'll give her time.  I really do like her alot.

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 11:16 AM

how bad is Santa Anita right now? Is it going to be days before they train again? Wish I was in Tahoe right now. They got dumped on. Powder day anyone? I miss those college days.

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 11:20 AM

Nice bloodlines, Billy.  Nothing wrong with fillies.  They make up the broodmare band, and having a great broodmare band is important. Just look at the Aga Khan's success.  Granted he has tons of history behind him, but he made sure his broodmare band was huge and stellar.  You'll get that colt eventually as long as you're patient and breed soundness.  The better your broodmare band the better the odds!  Certainly Tiznow has had his share of colts.

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 11:44 AM

Not to take anything away from her as it was a nice effort, but against whom?

Before Rachel and Zenyatta there was not too many years ago Sweet Catomine who inhaled horses just as easily. Even her early 3-yr season was effortless. In fact her 5th place in the Santa Anita Derby against the boys today, with valid excuses, would've still meant she'd go to the KY Derby. But just 5-yrs ago that wasn't the case and she was retired.

Glimmerglass 21 Jan 2010 11:48 AM

Santa Anita is a sad case.  Out of all the synthetic tracks in CA, they have had the worst luck.  I think that they are right to just go back to dirt because nothing that has been put in there had ever drained properly.  Maybe it can be the lone dirt facility in CA!  What's happening with Hollywood Park?  If they lose that track, then Santa Anita will be even more important.  I read a few trainers who want the synthetic tracks to stay, so maybe Arlington Park can get them if Hollywood closes and Santa Anita goes back to dirt!  That would be good for Arlington.

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 11:50 AM

Glimmerglass: She was racing against maidens--of course none of the competition was proven. So when you say "but against whom" it makes little sense. What you look for in maidens is the splits they run, how easily they do it, if they were able to rate, the Beyers, the final time, etc.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2010 12:03 PM

Footlick.  Thanks for the information regarding All Along. Biancone has had one HOY filly so I would trust his judgement on Daae.  

Dfw.  Shout out to the "Dorf!"  The man has proven he can hang with Southern California's big guns.  Perhaps he will take a shot with Blind Luck in the Santa Anita Derby.  

Would love to see a Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Conveyance, American Lion showdown.  

If your into maiden wins watch her crushing performance.

The West is just as loaded as last year.

Householder 21 Jan 2010 12:17 PM

Dray, as usual, I'm disagreeing with you :) I don't think Afleet Alex's triple crown was meant to be, and not because of any so-called 'rabbit' in the KD. He had a blip during preparations. I think the lung infection that caused him to finish last in the Rebel was enough of a setback to leave him a tad short for the 1 1/4 Derby. We've seen time and time again that everything has to go perfectly in the runup to the Derby -- I'm thinking of Empire Maker recently.

Dray, remember that if Alex had fallen in the Preakness, Scrappy T would have been DQ's -- and who would have been the winner. Giacomo was a disastrous step away from being a dual classic winner. Odd stuff.

Tiznowbaby 21 Jan 2010 12:21 PM

Glimmerglass:  It looks like Sweet Catomine's full sister Life is Sweet continues to "inhale" horses.  Wasn't Catomine hurt in the Santa Anita Derby?

Householder 21 Jan 2010 12:22 PM

If you want to talk 3yo fillies, do not forget Biofuel. She was making a winning move on the outside in the BC Fillies when she was stopped cold by another filly (who I cannot bring myself to name)veering into her. Still got up to be fourth, not much use for across-the-board money, though. Has a miler pedigree, should be effective up to 9f.

Ann in Lexington 21 Jan 2010 12:43 PM

i don't know if she could fill rachel alexandra's horseshoes, but she was an impressive winner, that day.

christy tate 21 Jan 2010 12:46 PM

Householder- I was going to post that there was a reason that Sweet Catomine was retired after the SA Derby.  They had been talking of the possibility of the Derby for quite a while.

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 12:53 PM

Draynay...

Will you explain the "RABBIT" to me please. :)

stardustyrose 21 Jan 2010 1:20 PM

Stardustyrose,

Oh no! Did you have to open one of Draynay's favorite cans of worms? :)

Zookeeper 21 Jan 2010 1:56 PM

re: Sweet Catomine bled during the race but was already encountering some problems the week before the SA Derby and was secretly taken off the SA ground to facility for hyperberic oxygen work. Disclosure of such hidden work post SA Derby resulted in a lawsuit against Wygod by a bettor who argued that information was material. The suit was later dismissed.

Before Sweet Catomine was 2004's Madcap Escapade who from day one was wicked fast and overmatched other fillies. Maybe Christine Daae will be like Madcap.

Jason I appreciate that this was a maiden effort with good Beyer - just like Eightyfiveinafifty's 105.

However we only have to look at Mr. Fantasy last year for a recent lesson of a "wow" initial effort with a solid Beyer .. never to be repeated again.

Glimmerglass 21 Jan 2010 2:15 PM

A rabbit is a model of Volkswagon that was out in the late 80's and 90's. What a cute lil car it was. Dray would look great in it, top down cruising the strip in Vegas, screaming money aint a thing!!  Seriously, a rabbit is just a horse entered into the race to ensure an honest pace so a horse does not go out to an easy lead, or the rabbit tires out the front runners to set up the closers. Pletcher loves the rabbit. So does better talk now.

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 2:29 PM

Gotcha Glimmerglass. So in the future, when I find out about an impressive maiden winner, I'll be sure to keep it to myself in case he/she turns out to be a dud. I wouldnt want to inform the readers at the risk of looking look bad. Geez. Hard to please people.

BTW, Eightyfiveinafifty has a sprinters pedigree. Big difference there.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2010 2:46 PM

Yeah Dave Dryfly will get a 1 1/4 for sure if calvin Bo-rail is on him it will feel like a mile for him as he skims his way to another win! Dryfly is for real but I am sure he will get injuried like 9 other horses leading up to the derby! Take control was the first one to bite the dust who is next!

It Aint Easy being good 21 Jan 2010 2:55 PM

Jason,

 I think it's time to ask for that raise again!

Draynay,

 Afleet Alex didn't lose the Derby because of a rabbit. He lost because he wasn't 100%. I do agree if he didn't suffer the lung infection he would have been a triple crown winner.

longwaytomay 21 Jan 2010 2:57 PM

How many fillys will enter the derby do you think this year after the sucess of ra and zenyatta last year? I say there might be 3 of them and none of them will hit the board! Very risky sending a filly to the derby in mho.

It Aint Easy being good 21 Jan 2010 2:58 PM

Does anyone know what happened to Big Drama? No works....nothing!

Mark D. 21 Jan 2010 3:03 PM

To stardustyrose,

A wabbit is a pesky hoss dat a twainer puts in da race to ensure a fast pwace duss setting da wace up for a cwoser. abadee abadee abadee that's all it is.

elmer fudd 21 Jan 2010 3:13 PM

yes she can be good ask RA MR. Jackson will buy her 3 time horse of the year again i hope MR Jackson can buy him a derby will like he buy everything else do MR Jackson breed his own horses or he just buy good horses that have won lots of races the other horse in my mind is the horse of the year RA is a good horse but the other horse is a better horse

buyhorseoftheyear 21 Jan 2010 3:26 PM

Firstly, What is with all the Mr. Fantasy bashing.  He is not a classic distance horse, but after his loss in the Gotham he came back to win very handily in the Withers, before his injury.  He is soon to come back to the track, and i imagine he will be one of the top milers in the country.

Secondly, Dryfly ain't getting no 1 1/4 mile.  He was dead by the end of the smarty jones.

And lastly, any time a horse catches your eye Jason, feel free to share, because i know i'd like to hear.

Dave 21 Jan 2010 3:29 PM

You can believe what you want.  I was there and any horse within 10 lengths of that crazy first half was blazed !  Without that rabbit trying to mess up Bellamy Road Afleet wins that Derby.

draynay 21 Jan 2010 3:37 PM

Phony JJ, we all know that is you trying to be someone else. If I could buy a Derby winner, I would, Nothing wrong with that.... if no one bought horses, then there would be NO "industry" and Kentucky would simply be the bourbon capital of the world, not Horse racing Capital of the world. GEEZ

IDEA, lets all talk about our picks for the Holy Bull and Lecomte and  discuss. That would make me happy.

Does Homeboykris have a shot? Winslow Homer, what about Worldly, Ron the Greek(great name), Citrus Kid, or Turf Melody? Does Maximus ruler run away? lets talk about what might happen, not what already happened, you know, speculate a little bit. I will give my 2 picks and you all can bash me all you want if I lose.

William's Kitten and Worldly across....

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 3:38 PM

I kind of agree with Dray on Afleet Alex. I think it was Spanish Chestnut who set those wicked splits and threw off the whole race. But I also think Rose's ride was suspect. Rail was dead that day.

Billy: I think Maximus Ruler is the real deal. We'll see Saturday. Wordly and Cool Bullet are also intriguing.

Holy Bull is wide open. I like Thank U Philippe a bit right now, but want to see the odds. Tom likes a bigtime longshot, Litigation Risk. Homeboykris gonna be tough too. Is Winslow Homer for real? Very interesting race.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2010 3:47 PM

I have been keeping tabs on a Candy Ride colt, Mykindacandy. I mentioned him earlier in the blog, and he had a bullet work again today at Oaklawn. I love Candy Ride's, so I hope this turns into a nice colt. Adding to virtual stable

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 3:51 PM

I looked at Philippe but Jackson Bend ran him off his feet last year. I learned my lesson last year with Bsharpsonata in betting a horse that was beaten previously by the same horses. We will see, good luck J.

I also have to agree with Dray and Jason. I was right past the wire, and Alex was the best horse, and he proved over the next five weeks he was. We should of had a TC winner. None the less, I made a ton of money in the Preakness on him, and still have my afleet alex hat.

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2010 3:57 PM

Billy: Thank U Philippe adds blinkers and will be a big price. Im hoping that will make the difference. He has taken on some pretty good horses so far. We'll see.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2010 4:00 PM

Billy's Empire,

I think that most people agree that Alex was a legitimate TC contender. Sadly, the best horse doesn't always win. Otherwise, we would have had a few in the span of 32(?) years since Affirmed. If the Derby doesn't get them, the Belmont does. The longer I follow horseracing, the more I realize what an incredibly difficult feat it is to accomplish. But we keep hoping don't we?

Zookeeper 21 Jan 2010 4:14 PM

I agree that the rabbit screwed up the race. I just think that if Alex was 100% healthy he would have won regardless.

longwaytomay 21 Jan 2010 4:14 PM

I can't wait for the Holy Bull, when's the last time we had this  great a field this early on the road to the Kentucky Derby.  

Jackson Bend is my pick

Dave 21 Jan 2010 4:30 PM

Can some one or any expert on this blog, tell me why Einstien's stud fee is so low? I mean goodness, I haven't been following racing but about two years, but my goodness, it seems so low compared to some?

carolyn 21 Jan 2010 4:52 PM

Jason & Billy's Empire:

Morning Line Odds.

William's Kitten 8-1

Worldly 5-1

Thank You Philippe 8-1

Maximus Ruler 4-1

Cool Bullet 5-1

Litigation Risk 12-1

Homeboykris 5-1

Winslow Homer 6-1

Dave:

Jackson Bend 5/2

tcc 21 Jan 2010 5:00 PM

Carolyn, re: Einstein.

One thing is the economy and he's unproven.

Strictly conjecture on my part, but more than likely it's his "unfashionable" pedigree, he matured late so his foals probably will take longer to mature, plus, although he was really, really versatile on all 3 surfaces, he didn't dominate on dirt.

He would be a horse I'd LOVE to breed to!

Rachel 21 Jan 2010 5:11 PM

Carolyn- Spend a Buck, his sire, is not a fashionable bloodline. And I can't look it up, but his bottom line is Brazilian, I think.  It all adds up to a lower stud fee

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 5:21 PM

What homeboykris is only a 3 year old? That horse will not win the holy bull but I think he will be tough to beat come derby time.

It Aint Easy being good 21 Jan 2010 5:22 PM

I like Candy Ride's too

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 5:31 PM

Does anyone know if the Holy Bull is being televised? (I know, longshot, but figured it couldn't hurt to ask).

I love this time of year, any of these horses can jump up and run a big one. My crystal ball says Winslow Homer...

Lil Darlin 21 Jan 2010 6:25 PM

CARLOS in CALI

What's your problem w/FOB? BTW  SINCE YOU LIKE TAKE CONTROL YOU PUT A JINX ON HIM! lol

Mike Relva 21 Jan 2010 6:59 PM

There was a Pollard's vision filly who won by 12 1/2 lengths today at Gulfstream - Stellar Vision. For those who might discount that win because is was a Maiden Claiming race, just remember Blind Vision.

Pollard's Vision is going to be a great sire.

AnneM 21 Jan 2010 7:01 PM

I read this an article  from the racing form and was curious how everybody else felt about Nick Zitos opinion.  I personally agree with him 100% when Zito is talking about prepping a derby horse on synthetic is stupid instead of dirt, but I know people have different opinions on the matter and I wanted to read what everybody else thinks.

Santa Anita has six graded stakes on the main track and offers a schedule to accommodate horses who want to remain around two turns following their 2-year-old year, dip back to seven furlongs to kick things off, or jump in in March.

"Santa Anita has the best program," Zito said.

Santa Anita, however, has a synthetic surface, Pro-Ride. Synthetic surfaces have complicated preparations for the Derby. Theoretically, the greatest benefit of a synthetic surface, Baffert said, is that a trainer never has to have his schedule affected by foul weather. The downside, according to Pletcher, is that "you can lead a horse over there thinking he's live, and you go away not believing he ran that badly."

"It leaves you scratching your head a lot of time," Pletcher said.

"Street Sense got beat in the Blue Grass [by Dominican] and then beat that horse 50,000 lengths in the Derby," Zito said. "The synthetics are an awful situation. A state-of-the-art dirt surface, with an excellent base, is wonderful. You can't convince me that synthetics have helped our cause. It takes an exceptional horse to like both.

"If a horse doesn't take to dirt, you're up against it," he said. "Look at Lookin at Lucky. He's number one right now. But number one could become number six on dirt. Right or wrong? He's got to start all over again. How can you give up that advantage? It's a very tough situation. The whole thing throws in a monkey wrench."

Zito is a three-time winner of the Blue Grass, when it was run on dirt. Now that Keeneland has a synthetic surface, Polytrack, Zito said he would only run in the Blue Grass "for the money."

"But I would have no aspirations of winning the Derby," he said, "unless the horse is a freak."

Just going to get this out of the way don't come back with well Pioneer of the Nile was second in the derby last year and he did all his preps on synthetic.  Reason why I say this is because 1) The track was sloppy not a true dirt track. 2) He's bred to love the slop he's out of Empire Maker who loved the slop remember his Belmont Stakes Victory over Funny Cide in the slop he won for fun. So according to his breeding he was suppose to love the slop. 3) Pioneer was nowhere to be found in the Preakness 2 weeks later which was run on a dry track. So all i'm saying is don't use POTN to say synthetic surfaces are good preps for derby horses. Where was the Blue Grass winner in the derby? He was up the track with the rest of the synthetic horses. I will also say that I believe that the SA Derby +Blue Grass should be down Graded from GR 1's

Rocker 21 Jan 2010 7:50 PM

Lil Darlin- I know you can watch the simulcast of the California races on the California racing site, so maybe Florida has the same??

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 8:36 PM

Caroline:

I think that when Einstein's sire, Spend A Buck retired, his stud fee was $10,000.  To date he only had four offspring that won over $1,000,000 and Einstein was his greatest money earner.  Its not a nice way of putting it, but stallions like Einstein when they start out are a dime a dozen.  Most sill see their stud fee drop after a few short years, though some become sucessful and their stud fee actually increases.  To be honest, his stud fee is average given the current economic conditions and myabe higher now than it will be in a couple of years.  LOL

LAZMANNICK 21 Jan 2010 8:47 PM

Rocker- It seems like you have already made up your mind, so why ask?  There is a pretty big class difference between Pioneer of the Nile and Dominican, so to try to say Dominican is the norm and discredit Pioneer of the Nile will just support the conclusion that you already favor.

Footlick 21 Jan 2010 8:57 PM

Finally had a chance to watch the video of the race, and Jason, I loved the way she ran.  I always like to see a horse who can pass other horses on the turn and then continue to pull away completing the turn and down the stretch.  Looked to me as if she had plenty left in the tank.  And like you, I don't care who she beat, 1:09?!  One to watch.  She looked to me as if she enjoyed it, and was responsive to subtle cues from the jockey.  Flash in the pan?  Can't they all be at this age?  What else is there to mull over in January?  I can't wait to watch the stakes!

Watched an Australian race last fall, a young (3?) gelding named Red Colossus won going all over the track.  The announcer said, "He has no idea, but plenty of talent!"  An apt description of lots of horses this time of year.  I'd rather see a late starter (with a good, thorough trainer) having had time to grow, than a well raced 2 year old looking like a seasoned old salt.

Oldie 21 Jan 2010 10:33 PM

Jason:

The LeComte Stakes looks a fairly

decent field.

tcc 21 Jan 2010 10:52 PM

First of all, The slop helped one horse and that was Mine that bird. The best horse that weekend ran on Friday and would have beaten that field easily. Everyone,except Summer Bird have done something in 2009. I still love the early part of the season because you have your sentimental favorites from the 2 yr old season like Lookin at Lucky Rule, Super Saver and Jackson Bend. Then you have others winning maidens and Allowances to spice up january like Stay Put and Eightyfiveinafifty. In January people have so many Derby and Triple crown horses that it makes the derby trail so fun. So I can't wait to talk about the Holy Bull and Lecomte for Saturday.

RJPPDP 21 Jan 2010 10:55 PM

Laz, footlick, Rachel, Thankyou for updating me on Einstein's stud fee. I know the economy isn't helping them at all, I noticed on a website that Curlin, Big Brown and others have had their stud fees reduced. What else can they do in desperate times like these. Also, and Birdstone is the only sire I noticed that fee actually went up. I can understand his going up, and rightfully so. I love the bird brothers.

carolyn 21 Jan 2010 10:57 PM

Thanks Rocker. Would anyone like to try and discredit Nick Zito or other trainers who have stated FACTS about plastic tracks?

Fire Slam 21 Jan 2010 11:14 PM

Foot Lick , Since the Blue Grass & SA Derby been moved to synthetic no horse besides Pioneer of the Nile has hit the board in the derby. Street Sense was second in the 07 BG but he was a dirt horse from the get go. Seriously if you go and look back at horses who were in the top 3 in the Blue Grass and SA Derby they are no where to be found.  Monba and Cowboy  Cal  come to my mind and they were 1st& 2nd in the BG in 08  but were up the track in the derby. All i'm saying is that I can't bet horses that are prepping for the derby on synthetic. Baffert has already said that he is probably going to prep LookingatLucky on the East Coast on traditional dirt tracks.  Hey Bottom  line prepping for the derby on synthetic has proven disastrous for those horses no matter how good they look. Come derby day I will not be betting horses that have prepped on synthetic until I see a poitive change.

Rocker 21 Jan 2010 11:23 PM

All I said is that you can't compare Dominican with Pioneer of the Nile.  Even if only Pioneer of the Nile ran well without a dirt prep, it proves that a horse with enough talent can.  Chocolate Candy wasn't disgraced and beat many a dirt horse.  So my handicapping would be asking how good is this horse who prepped on synthetic.  It's been proven with horses like I Want Revenge and Papa Clem that competitive synthetic horses can move up on dirt.  And we don't even know how good The Pamplemousse would have been in the Derby.  I think it depends on the horse, not the surface.  But, as I've said before, I could be wrong.  And we all have our own view.  If Baffert takes a different route with Looking at Lucky, it's probably because he feels he needs to prep him on dirt, something he obviously didn't feel with Pioneer of the Nile.  Each horse is different and each takes a unique approach.

Footlick 22 Jan 2010 12:09 AM

Jason, Christine Daae is very fast but I do not think she will be the next Rachel. The first time I saw Rachel race was a losing effort in the Debutante Stake. I wrote a thread about her immediately. It was the fluency of her strides and the effortless way in which she covered ground that captured my attention. I was not captivated by while watching Christine Daae. Her strides are not fluent and it does appear she will have soundness issues as she hits the ground very hard. Her dam line I reluctantly like as her dam sire is a great, great grandson of great Northern Dancer. His sons and grandsons has been broodmare sires of the winner of 18 Triple Crown races in the last 18 years. The great, great grandsons of ND do not have good records broodmare sires of classic winners. This filly is nice but nothing exceptional.

As for the Holly Bull, I will give you the field and take Piscitelli. He is by far the class of the field. He was only beaten by a head or neck by the two main contenders for the eclipse award i.e., Lookin At Lucky and Vale Of York. He was force into an unaccustomed role of leading a race because of his draw. I cannot recall any gate to wire winners on the Pro Ride. In addition to this, the rail was not the place to be. He was spinning his wheel inside the last furlong. In spite of these disadvantages he was gaining on Nobles Promise who had earlier disposed of him at the top of the stretch. His sire Victory Gallop was such a resolute horse that he is bound to sire a champion. His dam sire Relaunch was sire of Breeder Cup Classic winner Sky Walker and broodmare sire of 2004 HOY the brilliant Ghostzapper. Place a wager on this promising  son of Victory Gallop and step to the bank.

Coldfacts 22 Jan 2010 4:18 AM

Rocker you are 100% right but you're beating your head against the wall. You can not convince the West Coasters of anything no matter how many facts you have. Most still swear Zenyatta had a better year then Rachel so you think you can convince them a poly trained horse IS NOT going to win the Derby?  Let them believe it for me they're a automatic toss.

Draynay 22 Jan 2010 8:34 AM

For the record Jason I am going with the G1 Champagne Champion Homeboykris.  The 112 workout Dutrow threw in on the 12th of January convinces me he is ready to roll and should win if he gets a dry fast track.  If it comes up sloppy I will switch to Winslow Homer.  This could be Homeboykris's coming out party. He wasn't ready to go 1 1/8th in the Remsen but look at his prior 2 performances and you will see he will be tough to pass coming home.

Draynay 22 Jan 2010 9:19 AM

Very nice horse.  Awesome win.  Maybe the fillys are all coming into their own.  Don't forget Zenyatta though; I still think she's the horse of a lifetime that everyone wants and is more awesome than Rachel Alexandra.  I love them both and was thrilled by their performances last year, but Zenyatta's the one.  Good luck Christine Daae.  I think we should keep an eye on you.

erz213 22 Jan 2010 9:20 AM

I'm going to pick Piscitelli, Winslow Homer and William's Kitten.  I guess that means I'm leaving the heavyweights out.  I loved Piscitelli's BC, showing that he may be a more versatile horse than a dead closer.  I know people get on Desormeaux's back, but I wouldn't mind having him as my jock.  I'll support Billy with William's Kitten.  He can run on the dirt and maybe he's ready to run big here.  I really like Winslow Homer, but I'm worried that it's too much too soon.  But Dutrow is a pretty cautious trainer, so I can't imagine him putting him where he didn't belong.  This is the time for the heavyweights to stumble, so I'm hoping they aren't wound up, eyeing the prizes down the road.  Oh well- my picks, sink or swim.

Footlick 22 Jan 2010 10:47 AM

Talking about entertaining 3YO's, did anyone else see the video on Cowboy Gets Even, who won a 1 mile MSW at Laurel on Monday (the 18th)?  Weird but fun to watch.  He's in the hunt then he drops back to last at the top of the stretch and then he decides to start running again and he wins starting to go away.  (Sorry, don't know how to upload the video -- my techies (the nieces and nephews) aren't around.)

And Ann in Lexington, I'm still trying to get over how Biofuel "wuz robbed".  Sheesh.  

mz 22 Jan 2010 10:56 AM

Coldfacts: Ok, you're on. I'll take teh field and you can have Piscitelli. How much?

Jason Shandler 22 Jan 2010 11:54 AM

Candy Ride lovers.  Sydney's Candy should be back soon.  Broke his maiden by 6 at Del Mar but then jumped in the air at the break and got torched by a horse that ran 108 and change Dec 31.  Obviously not its best distance.  

Householder 22 Jan 2010 11:56 AM

I seem to recall Papa Clem taking out the eventual 3 Year Old Eclipse award winner on dirt after trying to escape Pioneer of the Nile's 3 year old preps.  Don't count the Smart Stike side of things out on dirt!  Lookin at Lucky could take the Wood like IWR or the Santa Anita Derby.  Would not really make a difference.  I think the benefit of shipping is just that.  It answers the question can this horse travel?  Look at Quality Road.  There was certainly some "Quality" van time spent with him after he refused to board a plane in Los Angeles.  If I were Baffert I would want to know this prior to the big dance.

Householder 22 Jan 2010 12:06 PM

This could be Homeboykris's coming out party.

draynay's coming out party (#1) of the year. Stay tuned for dozens more prior to the Derby.

joe schmoe 22 Jan 2010 12:21 PM

Can we not mention Rachel or Zenyatta on this blog?  There is a very contentious blog just for that.  Please.

Footlick 22 Jan 2010 12:39 PM

Jason,

 To me the Holy Bull looks wide open, lots to like. I expect alot of action on Jackson Bend, Homeboy kris and Piscitelli. If I can get the price I'm looking for {5-1 or higher} I'm gonna go with the Pletcher horse Aikenite. Just a gut feeling and Pletcher has been high on this horse since last year. Am I dreaming on getting those kind of odds?

longwaytomay 22 Jan 2010 12:53 PM

I don't think Bafferts decision to prep outside of Santa Anita is necessarliy an indictment of synthetics. He already knows how his horse handles Santa Anita, he probably wants to give him the dirt and travel experience earlier rather than later as Housebuster mentioned.

It could possibly be an indictment of the mismanagement of racing surfaces at Santa Anita, which they've been known for, long before the introduction of synthetics.

YYZGUY 22 Jan 2010 1:07 PM

Longway: I think 5-1 on Aikenite sounds about right. Jackson Bend and Homeboy will take more action. I think Piscitelli will also be in the 5/6-1 neighborhood. Good betting race. Aikenite will be in my exotics for sure.

Jason Shandler 22 Jan 2010 1:24 PM

I wouldn't be so hasty to throw out horses trained on synthetic tracks leading up to the derby. Especially after last years extremely solid performances in major preps and the derby itself.

The Arkansas Dby. Wood Mem, Santa Anita Dby and Sunland Dby were all won by colts trained on synthetics.

Yes the Kentucky Derby winner, MTB, built his foundation on the poly of Woodbine. And Pioneer of the Nile was 2nd in the derby.

Ignore synthetic trained horses with extreme caution.

YYZGUY 22 Jan 2010 1:36 PM

Jason.  Has any filly beat Ruffian's times?  

stardustyrose 22 Jan 2010 1:39 PM

Haha crickets from coldfacts. His facts are weak and he needs to get his facts right because Piscatelli isnt winning anything. I with go with Dray and take homeboykris and by the way what a sweet name for a horse. Best name I have heard for a horse so far is drinkingsmokinggambling! lol! Can anyone beat that?

It Aint Easy being good 22 Jan 2010 1:48 PM

It Aint Easy being good.  I thought Blonde in a Motel was pretty good!

Householder 22 Jan 2010 2:05 PM

Jason,

 I'll be betting WPS only. This time of year I try to build my bankroll for the Derby. I have found across the board bets work best for me when trying to accomplish that. For some reason I feel safer with that type of play. I do like your horse in the Lecomte. I like Citrus Kid also. I haven't decided how I am going to play that race yet.

longwaytomay 22 Jan 2010 2:12 PM

I will throw out all synthetic horses. The derby winner ran on dirt, POTN should of been fourth he cut off Papa clem. So if you look at it 2nd and 3rd place finishers were dirt horses. Lets go to the preakness oh RA ....Dirt horse....MTB dirt horse. How about the belmont oh yeah dirt dirt dirt horses. Synthetics= W NBA horses!

It Aint Easy being good 22 Jan 2010 2:17 PM

If memory serves me right I think POTN has some nice works over Churchill prior to the Derby suggesting he was fine with the dirt.  Now with the rain and subsequent track shut downs we are once again missing valuable training days.  This has to be on Baffert's mind as well.  Yes the synthetics and the sub 100 Beyers have been a handicapper's nightmare in the Derby.  But, the superfecta payouts complete with POTN (A millionaire) and Papa Clem (Ark Derby Winner) and Jason's longshot special Muskit Man was pretty hefty!  Whom ever boxed these three and then mistakenly hit "Field" for the fourth choice  was a big winner. This is what makes the Derby so fun.

Householder 22 Jan 2010 2:20 PM

Both races have me in a quandry. Too many promissing horses. My head hurts and my crystal ball is broken. :) In the LeComte I've settled on Wordly and in the Holy Bull my pick is Aikenite.

Good luck everybody!

Zookeeper 22 Jan 2010 2:32 PM

Well, nobody has mentioned my favorite 3-yr. old filly. Last year, I didn't get to the track much because I was spending my time at home with a new puppy. My friend owed me a few dollars so when she went to the track (Arlington), I told her to place a bet for me. I looked at the day's races with only the names, jockey, trainer, and morning line odds to pick a horse. So just for the fun of it, I placed a bet on a filly who's name described my puppy perfectly. Not scientific but the filly won the race and went on to become one of the better 2-year olds. My choice of fillies is She Be Wild. Lot's of people hear are talking about Blind Luck but She Be Wild was the 2-yr. old filly of the year.

cs 22 Jan 2010 3:02 PM

lets do a nice tri wheel

thank you phillepe(jason)

/piscateilli(footlick)

/homeboykris(dray)

with

typ/Pisc/Homeboy/William's/Jackon

typ/PISC/HOMEBOY/WILLIAM/JB/Aikenite

what is that 60.00 for a dollar tri wheel

I like to do 3/3/8 tri wheels (36$) but this race will be tough to handicap b/c it is first of year. I do like Jason's angle more now after  I look at it b/c he has a start over the track this year, gets blinkers, and was a good 2nd to a stakes horse. Should be fun. I also think that it would be fun to handicap the p4 at fairgrounds on Saturday. They are all nice races.

If I was betting cheap, I would do a tri box Jackson/William/Phillipe.

Winslow might need one, but I hope he suprises us all!!

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 3:13 PM

Good Luck to all as well.

Longwaytomay, I also found a nice way to make money is rolling doubles. I think people should bet these more often. Sometimes you can catch a nice ticket for about 125-150.

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 3:16 PM

Billy: A good, cheap way that Ive been playing with success lately is in Pick 3s--singling in first leg, going all in the next, and going two-deep in the last. It's usually a $20-24 ticket and if you hit your first, you have a lot of excitement going into last. Last Saturday at Gulf I did that--had a 1-5 shot in the first (whoopie), but a 100-1 bomb came in the 2nd, and I had the favorite in the 3rd, who won at 3-5. What a weird pick 3 it was--1-5/100-1/3-5. I had no idea what it would pay. It wound up being $130, which was kind of cheap considering the bomb, but on the other hand there were two odds-on choices in there.

Jason Shandler 22 Jan 2010 3:26 PM

Hey all......... Would someone please answer my question?  :(

stardustyrose 22 Jan 2010 3:26 PM

Billy's Empire,

 I don't pretend to be an expert {No Draynay here} so I will not be ashamed to ask, What do you mean by rolling doubles?

longwaytomay 22 Jan 2010 3:32 PM

stardustyrose- I believe this year's Mother Goose was faster.  I swore to myself that I would not bring two horses into this blog, so I will not name the horse, but I believe she has the record now.  As for her other records, I can't research it right now as I'm at work-lol!

Footlick 22 Jan 2010 3:47 PM

cs- nothing wrong at all with She Be Wild, I just feel as the distances get longer Blind Luck will be more dominant.  But She Be Wild has been very impressive.

Footlick 22 Jan 2010 3:50 PM

Jason.  I love those 3,4,5 and 6 picks but I HATE it when you hit the first 2 and the third one brings you down and on and on.  :(

stardustyrose 22 Jan 2010 3:52 PM

OK, Thank U Phillipe and Litigation Risk in the Holy Bull.

And for a bomb: Letsgetitonmon in the LeComte.  At least I will get a laugh when the announcer has to say his name.  

mz 22 Jan 2010 3:54 PM

Longway, rolling doubles are bets that you have to pick the winner of 2 races in a row, and you can do it for every race except the last. You can do a 2 dollar double with 2 horses in race 1, and 3 horses in race 2, pay 12 bucks, and if you hit 2 favorites, you will make money, usually. As for what Jason said, i love pick 3's and trying to find a single. I also just do 1$ 2/2/2, an 8 dollar bet with 6 betting interests. I hit 3 on Derby day last year. That was a good day.

Jason, on the 100-1 shot, what was he on the morning line? That takes some brass if you know what I mean. Good for you.

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 4:20 PM

Impressive 1 1/8-mile maiden winner for Pletcher in the 7th at Gulf just now--Colizeo. Very well bred son of Distorted Humor.

Jason Shandler 22 Jan 2010 4:20 PM

MZ, In a Jamaican accent? i would love that!

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 4:22 PM

Billy, dont give me too much credit--I hit the 'all' button.

Jason Shandler 22 Jan 2010 4:22 PM

After I re-read that, I noticed and was laughing that I posted it. But still, that is what it takes sometimes to win big. Lighting in a bottle, a lil racing luck, and a positive attitude.  I like doing the Double with the Oaks and Derby. I had Rachel/All last year and it paid nice. Thanks Mine that Bird

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 4:27 PM

When I saw Maximus Ruler break his maiden in an allowance, I knew he was something special.  He is my pick so far to win the Derby and obviously the Lecomte tomorrow.  I think Homeboykris will bounce back and win the Holy Bull.  If Maximus Ruler and Homeboykris win their races tomorrow, what a great day that would be for their sire Roman Ruler!

Alisha 22 Jan 2010 4:28 PM

Star, Rachel I think tied her track record or beat it by like.16 of  second, but Rachel did beat or equal, in a hand ride.  

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 4:29 PM

All Stakes p4 FG 7-10

General Q/

Jackpot Joanie/

Annihlation/

maximus Ruler

those are my singles.

free PP on brisnet.com for all

Billy's Empire 22 Jan 2010 4:48 PM

Billy,

 Thanks. Thought that was what you meant but wasn't sure. Never hurts to ask.

Jason,

 Nothing wrong with using the 'all' button on occasion. Love it on the Derby. Last year I played Pioneer/all and all/Pioneer and it payed over a grand for a 38 dollar bet. Thanks Mine That Bird!

longwaytomay 22 Jan 2010 4:51 PM

Yes, Stardusty, RA beat Ruffian's record both the time and the number of lengths.

MonicaV 22 Jan 2010 5:13 PM

I think the best bet by yourself is a pick three its cheap and can get you the most money the worst bet by yourself is an exacta or trifecta box, I usually stick to the WPS and also the pick threes what is a rolling double obviously its the winner of two races but why would it roll?

It Aint Easy being good 22 Jan 2010 5:21 PM

There seem to be a few Piscitelli fans on here and let me be the first to let you down gently.  Piscitelli is going to see fractions around 45 flat and he has never shown that type of speed and if he is counting on others to come back to him in the end he will be wrong.  I say pass on Piscitelli the only thing he has on his resume is a Maiden win back in July of 2009.  I would pass.  There are better horses in the race.  For those of you behind Jackson Bend I would pass here too. Could he be all that and a box of chocolate? Yes.  But Nick Zito is a very very smart man.  There is no reason to have this horse fully wired at first asking it's just not Nick's style.  Is he that good?  We will see but I am guessing he is thinking Florida Derby with this horse and only needs a good stretch of the legs from the horse in this race.  Pass on him and the chalky taste.  Like I said Homeboy is my pick but Winslow Homer could be the fox in the woods rain or no rain.  I will be watching the board but to see a 2 year old run that good on a off track you have to believe there is real talent there.  Good luck to all.  Remember, I am never wrong.

Draynay 22 Jan 2010 5:29 PM

I notice even the TVG "experts" go pretty deep on their pick 4s (up to five/six horses per race and then two/three for the feature).  Most of us 2 dollar betters don't have that kind of cash to throw out.  I do know that Christina Olivares claimed to hit 3 pick 4s in a row closing days of Saratoga.  I usually will turn the sound up for her.  

Householder 22 Jan 2010 7:05 PM

DRAYNAY

Jackson Bend for the win this weekend.

Mike Relva 22 Jan 2010 7:49 PM

She Be Wild was lucky to win the BC juvenile filly race. Blind Luck was had a diffiult trip and still ended up 3rd. She then demolished the field in the Hollywood Starlet and fillies coming out of that race have done well. I am sure that She Be Wild is a nice filly but Blind Luck was the better 2 year old and I think she will have a great 3 year old campaign.

AnneM 22 Jan 2010 9:09 PM

Stardusty Rose:

How are you doing?  In answer to your question about Ruffian’s times in her races:

Ruffian ran in four stakes races as a 2 y-o in 1974 and in four as a 3 y-o in 1975.  Her accomplishments in terms of race times and actual running performance in each of these races was remarkable.  In five of them (Fashion, Astoria, Sorority, Spinaway & Comely) she still holds the stakes record; in two of them (Acorn & Mother Goose) she holds the stakes record when they were contested at Aqueduct (over the years they were contested at either Aqueduct or Belmont).  In addition, she equalled Magazine’s 1973 time for the fastest running of the Coaching Club Oaks when it was held at Belmont, which is the official stakes record (it was also contested at Aqueduct).

It is also interesting to note that Ruffian was never headed at any call in any of these races and in all her stakes races her highest odds was 2/5 or .40 cents on the dollar.

• 1974 -  Fashion 2yo.....G-3 (Bel) 5 1/2F.....Time: 1.03.....Won by 6 ¾ Lgths.....In six future subsequent runnings at 5 &1/2F Ruffian’s time was best.

• 1974 – Astoria 2 yo.....G-3 (Aqu) 5 1/2F.....Time:  1.02.4.....Won by 9 Lgths......In 34 subsequent runnings Ruffian’s time was best.

• 1974 – Sorority 2 yo......G-1 (Mth) 6F.....Time:  1.09.....Won by 2 ¼ Lgths.....In 35 subsequent runnings Ruffian’s time was best.

• 1974 – Spinaway 2 yo.....G-1 (Sar) 6F.....Time:  1.08.3.....Won by 12 ¾ Lgths.....In 19 subsequent runnings at 6 F Ruffian’s time was best.

• 1975 – Comely 3 yo.....G-3 (Aqu) 7F.....Time:  1.21.1.....Won by 7 ¾ Lgths.....In 15 subsequent runnings at 7-F Ruffian’s time was best.

• 1975 – Acorn 3 yo.....G-1 (Aqu) 1-M.....Time:  1.34.2.....Won by 8 ¼ Lgths.....The race was run 15 times at Aqueduct with Ruffian’s addition the final race contested there.  It has since been contested at Belmont.  Ruffian’s time was bettered by Cupejoy’s Joy, 1.34.1 in 1992, Inside Information, 1.34.1 in 1994, and You, 1.34 in 2002.  Ruffian’s time was the fastest of the Aqueduct additions.

• 1975 – Mother Goose 3 yo.....G-1 1-1/8M.....Time:  1.47.4.....Won by 13 ½ Lgths.....This race was contested 7 times at Aqueduct (1963 to 1967, 1969, & 1975)  Ruffian’s time was the fastest at that track (2-turns)  The other times it was contested at Belmont (1-turn)  Rachel’s time of 1.46.1 is the stakes record.

• 1975 – Coach Club Oaks 3 yo....G-1  1-1/2M.....Time:  2.27.4.....Won by 2 ¾ Lgths......This race was contest 17 times at 1 1/2F at Belmont (except 1963 to 1967 at Aqueduct).  Ruffian’s time of 2.27.4 equalled Magazine’s time in the 1973 running as the fastest at Belmont.

Keep in touch.  LOL

LAZMANNICK 22 Jan 2010 10:09 PM

Rocker:

1) Statistically, there are simply not enough oberservations to draw definitive conclusions about prepping for the Derby on synthetics.  Afterall, only 2 Santa Anita Derbys have been run on synthetic, 3 Blue Grass, and 4 Lane's End.  And, if we wipe away the results of the 2009 Derby because the track was muddy, we are only left with the 2008 Santa Anita Derby, the 2007 and 2008 Blue Grass, and 2006-2008 Lane's End.  How can any solid conclusions be drawen from such a small population of cases?

2) You(or Nick Zito) need to distinguish between horses that prepare for the Derby by running SOME of their races on synthetics and those horses that prep for the Derby EXCLUSIVELY on synthetics.

You conveniently dismiss the fact that Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby after prepping on Keeneland's polytrack in the Blue Grass, pointing to the fact that Street Sense was already proven on dirt.  Therefore, you conclude, Street Sense should not be categorized as a synthetic horse.  Yet, isn't this quite arbitrary on your part?  The fact remains that the last race Street Sense ran prior to the 2007 Kentucky Derby was on a synthetic surface.  Just as he did prior to Street Sense's 2006 Breeder's Cup Juvenile win, Carl Nafzger prepped Street Sense for the Derby on synthetic (Street Sense won the BC Juvenile after running 3rd in Keeneland's Breeder's Futurity).  So, while Nick Zito would only use the Blue Grass as a Derby prep "for the money", Carl Nafzger found it perfectly acceptable, and had great success doing so.

Interestingly, the runner-up horse in Street Sense's Derby, Hard Spun, also ran his last prep over a synthetic surface, Turfway Park's Lane's End Stakes.  While, it is true that, like Street Sense, Hard Spun had already proven himself over a conventional dirt surface, the fact remains that he made his final Derby prep start on a synthetic surface.  Again, it appears quite arbitrary to dismiss Hard Spun's success going from synthetic to dirt, UNLESS you first make the differentiation between those horses that prepped for the Derby on both dirt and synthetic from those those that prepped EXCLUSIVELY on synthetics.  Afterall, if the argument you/Zito are proposing is that running a horse on synthetics is not the way to win the Derby, Street Sense and Hard Spun clearly do not support this, particularly since both made their FINAL start before the Derby on synthetics.

It appears biased if you discount the success of Street Sense and Hard Spun prepping on synthetics(because they had established dirt form) yet critique the Derby failures of horses in more recent Blue Grass Stakes.  One could look at how poorly last year's Blue Grass winner, General Quarters, ran in the Derby and then claim that his failure at Churchill was the result of running on synthetics.  However, was General Quarters' failure in the Derby the result of having made his final prep on synthetic, or was it due to having run in the Sam F. Davis(he won) and Tampa Bay Derby on dirt?  Rocker, you can't have it both ways.  You can't dismiss Street Sense(and I would assume you would also dismiss Hard Spun as evidence that prepping on synthetics can be successful) yet then point to Genral Quarters as proof that prepping in the Blue Grass is "disastrous".  Both Street Sense and Genral Quarters ran in the Tampa Bay Derby on dirt then ran in the Blue Grass on synthetic.  The former then won the Derby while the latter ran 10th.  Why should we focus on General Quarters' failure in the Derby and dismiss Street Sense's success?  

It seems bias also enters your analysis in your decision to simply remove the 2009 Kentucky Derby from analysis because the track was muddy.  In statistical terms, this is called "selecting on the dependent variable".  In other words, you are selecting cases based upon their outcome.  Why should the 2009 Derby not be included in any analysis?  Or is it, you simply want to dismiss Pioneer of the Nile from analysis?  Either way, the methodology is biased.  Muddy track or not, the Kentucky Derby was run, and the connections of Pioneer of the Nile recieved 2nd money.  I don't think Churchill Downs is going to erase Pioneer of the Nile's name from the 2nd place spot because he had a mudder's pedigree.  THE FACT IS, Pioneer of the Nile did run 2nd in the Derby after having prepped  exclusively on synthetics and with the Santa Anita Derby his final prep.

Pionner of the Nile was not the only horse that prepped on synthetics to run well in the Derby.  Papa Clem began his career by running his first 4 races on synthetics, with 2 at Santa Anita including a 2nd in the Bob Lewis(behind Pioneer of the Nile and ahead of I Want Revenge) then went on to finish 2nd in the Louisiana Derby and win the $1 million Arkansas Derby.  Papa Clem then ran 4th in the Derby, only a neck behind 3rd place finisher Musket Man, and just another neck behind runner-up, Pioneer of the Nile.  Rocker, if, as you say, we should "disqualify" Pioneer of the Nile to 4th best horse in the Derby, that moves Papa Clem up to 3rd.  Should we count Papa Clem as a "dirt" horse because he made his final 2 starts before the Derby on dirt, or should we look at Papa Clem's Derby as evidence that prepping a horse on synthetics, or at least getting a horse's foundation on synthetics, can lead to success in the Derby?  Once again, we are back to making the distinction between horses that have mixed experience on dirt and synthetics and those that have raced EXCLUSIVELY on synthetics.  Looking at Street Sense, Hard Spun, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem, there seems to be at least some evidence that a horse can run well in the Derby after having run some of its prep races, including its final prep(Street Sense, Hard Spun, Pioneer) on synthetics.

What horse ran 5th in the 2009 Derby, finishing AHEAD of Summer Bird? Well, that would be Chocolate Candy, I horse that made all of his pre-Derby stakes appearances on synthetics(Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood, Hollywood Futurity, California Derby, El Camino Real, Santa Anita Derby).  So, that is now 3 of the top 5 2009 Derby finishers who had made more starts on synthetics than dirt prior to the Derby.

Then there is the actual winner of the 2009 Derby, Mine That Bird.  While it is true that Mine That Bird made his only 2 starts prior to the Derby on dirt at Sunland, his 2 year old foundation had been built on Woodbine's polytrack.  Thus, coming into the Derby, Mine That Bird had also run more times on synthetic than dirt.  What is more, Mine That Bird's best races had been on synthetic, with most people dismissing him as a possible "synth specialist" because of his mediocre runs at Sunland. None the less, if I had to choose and classify him as either a dirt or synthetic horse(prior to the Derby) I would select "dirt", although the reality is that his experience was mixed.  Again, we're back to distinguishing between mixed synth/dirt horses and exclusively synth horses.

Finally, I would be remiss not to mention I Want Revenge, the morning line favorite for the Derby.  Like 4 of the top 5 finishers in the 2009 Derby, I Want Revenge had pre-Derby experience on both synthetic and dirt.  He started on synthetic, breaking his maiden at Hollywood, then running a close 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity(behind Pioneer, but ahead of Chocolate Candy).  In his first Derby prep, IWR ran 3rd in the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita.  His connections then switched him to dirt, and he romped in the Gotham with a 113 Beyer and won the Wood after losing about 5 lengths during the course of the race.  Like Papa Clem, IWR had no problem moving from synth to dirt prior to the Derby.

Because Rocker has dismissed Street Sense's 2007 Derby win following a synth prep(and I assume Hard Spun and his 2007 Lane's End) and the 2009 Derby(or at least Pioneer of the Nile) as evidence of synth-prepped horses running well in the Derby, the analysis is basically reduced to the 2008 Derby.  Well, here magically we have a Derby that completely supports the hypothesis that prepping for the Derby on synthetics is "disastrous".  As evidence there is Monba, Cowboy Cal, Adriano, and Colonel John.  Of them, I believe Colonel John ran best in the Derby, finishing 6th.  

As it concerns the 2008 Derby, I would agree that horses coming from synthetic preps did not run well. What is more, Big Brown and Eight Belles were (I believe) horses that had never run on synthetics, although Big Brown had broken his maiden on turf.  However, it should be said that outside of those two, no other horse in the 08' ran particularly well in the race, whether they had prepped on synthetic or not.  Additionally, Colonel John came back from the Derby, ran 3rd in the Swaps Stakes on synthetic, and then won the Travers Stakes on dirt at Saratoga.  Thus, while Colonel John failed to go from synth to dirt in the Derby, he was successful doing so in the 4th most important race for 3 year olds.

3) Have written ALL of the above, in handicapping the Derby I would agree that, with all else even, I would rate a horse with at least some prior success on dirt over a horses that has had success EXCLUSIVELY on synthetics.  In fact, prior to last year's Derby, I rated Pioneer of the Nile, a horse with no proven success on dirt, below Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and Friesan Fire even though Pioneer had won more stakes races.  I agree with Nick Zito that synthetics certainly do make the Derby more confusing for both horsemen and handicappers.  Again, this applies particularly to horses that have raced EXCLUSIVELY on synthetics.  I understand Zito's point that with horses like Pioneer of the Nile and Lookin at Lucky(so far) it is hard for the horse's own trainer, the trainer of rival 3 year olds, and handicappers to be entirely confident that the synthetic form will translate onto the dirt at Churchill.  Of course, it should be mentioned that no one can be 100% certain that a particular horse, even those proven on dirt(and even those proven at Churchill) will take to the Churchill dirt they face on the first Saturday of May(what if it rains?).  

Still, if as a handicapper I am presented with two horses with similar backgrounds and a similar racing record, I will rate the horse with (successful) dirt experience over one that has run exclusively on synth.  However, if the decision is between an exceptional synth horse, like Pioneer of the Nile, and a mediocre dirt horse, like West Side Bernie, I'll take the (exclusively)synth horse.

Going so far as to dismiss any horse coming from the Blue Grass, Lane's End, Lexington, or Santa Anita Derby seems a little extreme though.  What if, like with Street Sense and Hard Spun, a horse exiting one of those races has already proven himself/herself successful on dirt?  

And from a training perspective, I just do not see how using a synth race as a horse's final prep is necessarilly "disastrous".  The performances of Street Sense and Hard Spun in the 2007 Derby suggest that if a trainer has a proven dirt horse, using a synth race as a final prep can yield positive dividends. And Pioneer of the Nile's runner-up performance last year suggests that even with an exclusively synth horse, using  a synth race as a final prep need not end in "disaster".  While doing so may leave alot of questions unanswered and may warrant a juicier price(if one is to play the horse), it has been repeatedly shown that good horses can move successfully from synth to dirt(Mine That Bird, Zenyatta, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Careless Jewel, Well Armed, Gayego, Albertus Maximus, Two Step Salsa, Informed Decision, Heatseeker, Colonel John, El Gato Malo, Misremembered, Mythical Power, Massone, Gabby's Golden Gal, Tough Tiz's Sis, etc.).

Finally, one would be premature to dismiss from Derby consideration all of the horses currently stabled at Santa Anita or other synth tracks.  Even if a horse has run exclusively on synth through March, one should be cautious to throw the horse out.  Papa Clem and I Want Revenge show that horses that have a synth foundation but then make their final Derby preps on dirt can turn into serious prospects.  

Ultimately, there is not enough data to draw definitive conclusions regarding the relationship between synthetic preps and Derby performance.  If anything, anecdotal evidence suggest horses can run well in the Derby if they are proven dirt horses who make their final preps on synthetic(Street Sense and Hard Spun), proven synth horses that make their final preps on dirt(Papa Clem, and then Mine That Bird to a lesser extent).  Given the Derby success of horses with a mixed campaign(dirt and synth), it would appear an overreaction for someone to proclaim that synthetic preps will produce "disastrous" results at Churchill.

That leaves those horses that have raced exclusively on synthetics. I have been careful to distinguish these horses from those with mixed campaigns.  If Rocker's and Zito's hypotheses have some validity, it will be with those horses that are exclusively synthetic. Should we, as handicappers, throw them out come Derby time?  Well, a certain amount of skepticism would certainly seem appropriate.  However, the efforts of Pioneer of the Nile and even Chocolate Candy in last year's Derby suggest that exclusively synth horses can run well in the Derby.  Blindly throwing out a horse because it has raced only on synthetics would appear as ignorant as placing 100% confidence in an exclusively synth horse.  Handicapping rarely works in absolutes; didn't we learn anything from Mine That Bird and all of Draynay's "sure things"?  

GunBow 22 Jan 2010 10:14 PM

MonicaV....

Thank You.... :)  Simple question.  See how easy that was.

stardustyrose 22 Jan 2010 10:31 PM

Hey all you know what is funny.  Jason I have to say this LOL.  Everyone is saying not to mention the two wonder women in this blog but  you have it in the title LOLOLOLOL!!!!  :)

stardustyrose 22 Jan 2010 10:33 PM

Monica V and Stardusty Rose:

For the record, Ruffian contested the Mother Goose at Aqueduct in a 2-turn race.  Rachel ran it at Belmont in a 1-turn race.

The track record for 1-1/8M at Belmont is 1.45.2 set by Secretariat.  The three year best time is Rachel's 1.46.1

The track record for 1-1/8M for Aqueduct is Riva Ridge's 1.47 (2 2/5ths slower and set in  the same year as Secretariat’s).  The three year best time is 1.48 (1 second slower).

For the record, Belmont is and always will be faster than Aqueduct’s outer main track.  Rachel’s performance is exceptional, but so is Ruffian’s.  If you interpolate the differences between the two tracks you will see that the performances would favor Ruffian when compared against the track record and Rachel when the performances are compared against the 3-year best time.  With regards to competition, Rachel beat two horses, Ruffian beat 6.

LAZMANNICK 22 Jan 2010 10:36 PM

I stand corrected in track record differentials.  Belmont 1-1/8M is 1 3/5ths faster.  LOL

LAZMANNICK 22 Jan 2010 11:26 PM

There is a big difference in a one turn race compared to a two turn race as far as time.  That's why you really can't compare the two.

Footlick 23 Jan 2010 12:36 AM

LAZ,

I guess Rachel can prove herself to you this then huh? I know, its not like you dont like her, its just that to you she is not great. You will be proven wrong this year.

Shane 23 Jan 2010 7:26 AM

Jason,

 Do you have any insight on a trainer by the name of Danny Peitz?

Trains a colt by the name of Moojab, out of Smarty, damsire is Unbridleds Song. Runs today at Oaklawn. Thanks.

longwaytomay 23 Jan 2010 8:14 AM

I'm with draynay and JS on AA.  I'm still PO'd big time at Jeremy Rose.  I don't know that I can find it in my heart to ever forgive him for that shoddy - asleep-at-the-wheel ride in the Derby.

Thanks for the video of a thrilling filly.

CajunCountry 23 Jan 2010 9:53 AM

I see there are some still some crazy enough to compare ruffian to the preakness,haskell,woodward and horse of the year rachel alexandra. seems silly to compare ruffian at this point to the reigning horse of the year but there are those who just can't let the past go and cheer the present. for the record ruffian didn't achieve anything close to what rachel did last year alone ! gunbow do us all a favor and bet those plastic prepared horses big in the derby and come back here and let us all know ow it worked out for you. prepare on dirt or stay home for the derby.

draynay 23 Jan 2010 11:31 AM

    What a tough race to call!  I think Winslow Homer might need a race under his belt, Even though I would love to see him win.  I will go with Aikenite to win(Needs a clean trip, Johnny V. will give him that), Winslow Homer, and Thank U Philippe for my top three.  

     Friesan Fire has his Blinkers back on, He is on the track he loves, So, He will beat Good and Lucky and so will General Quarters.  Friesan Fire, General Quarters and Good and Lucky top three in that order.

Greg J. 23 Jan 2010 12:02 PM

Nice race!  I love that Joe Bravo had the mount on Christine.  I grew up going to Monmouth Park and have always been his fan.  

I hope the two go big places together this year!

CJ 23 Jan 2010 1:50 PM

Why does this debate infect every blog?

Footlick 23 Jan 2010 2:59 PM

Longway: Sorry, I have no insight.

Jason Shandler 23 Jan 2010 3:08 PM

FYI,

   Honest Wildcat and Richard Migliore went down hard in the first at Aqueduct today.  In the stretch, Honest Wildcat went wrong and fell hard with the Mig landing on his head.  I read he was awake and talking and at the hospital. As of 1:15, Honest Wildcat was still alive. He had a fracture to his right foreleg, but he stood up once he was dragged onto the equine ambulance and he had a splint put on to stabilize the fracture. Wish the best for both...

Greg J. 23 Jan 2010 3:31 PM

Hey Shane:

I think Rachel's pretty good, just like I think that Zenyatta is, but I don't think either one is as good as Ruffian or will ever be her equal, at least not yet.  And I don't think that I am being particularly biased, because a lot of people feel the same way.  So far Ruffian's times have stood up for 35 or so years.  But it is not her times that impress me.  I don't know if you have ever seen her lifetime past performances, but when you look at them you can really see how dominant she was.  She controlled the pace in every one of her races.  She dictated the times and most of this was done while she was well clear of her opposition.  In most of her races (except one) she was well clear of her opponents the second last call and in only one (the Coaching Club Oaks at 1 1/2M) did she ever lose ground from the second last call to the finish and then it was only by ¼ of a length.  It would have been interesting to see what she would have accomplished if she would have really been challenged.

I don’t feel that my thoughts on this are a slight to Rachel.  If she races this year, believe it or not, I’ll be a fan.

LOL an have a good day.

LAZMANNICK 23 Jan 2010 4:01 PM

LeComte Stakes.

wps on #5&#9.

Holy Bull

wps on #9

tcc 23 Jan 2010 4:17 PM

LAZMANNICK...

I agree with you about Ruffian.  There really is no way to put any filly close to her.  Racing has just changed too much.  She was amazing.  AND undefeated. I love all horses but I seriously doubt that there will EVER be another Ruffian or even close.  I believe that is in the past and will remain there.  :)

stardustyrose 23 Jan 2010 5:07 PM

Shane...

How old were you when Ruffian raced?  :)

stardustyrose 23 Jan 2010 5:09 PM

I was wondering if Winslow Homer was for real. I think I got my answer.

longwaytomay 23 Jan 2010 5:24 PM

    Two impressive Victories by two of my favorites, Friesan Fire and Winslow Homer, Very Impressive!  Congrats to Steve Asmussen and Tony Dutrow,  A great day for Fox Hill Farms and Rick Porter.  Thank You to Mr. Asmussen for putting the blinkers back on Fire...

Greg J. 23 Jan 2010 5:25 PM

Citrus Kid opens at 2-1! Are you kidding me?

longwaytomay 23 Jan 2010 5:25 PM

Good to see Freisan Fire and General Quarters perform well. Glad that William's Kitten was in the money. Who is Ron the Greek?

Tiznowbaby 23 Jan 2010 6:04 PM

Draynay, maybe you should have switched: WH home with the dry track and Homeboy with the sloppy. But hey, you're never wrong. :)

Tiznowbaby 23 Jan 2010 6:12 PM

Well my two favorites won the Holly Bull. MR did well, considering he set the pace the entire way and nearly pulled off the win until caught by a late closer. What a great way to start off the three year old season.

LDP 23 Jan 2010 6:41 PM

Ron the Greek looked like Silky Sullivan coming down the stretch,choo-choo!You could tell he's still green by him dropping back to last on the backstretch,but the ground he made up was ridiculously impressive.Plus,it wasn't like the runner-up was hanging are any thing.He has Classics written all over him.Major Player,one to keep an eye on.He looks the part also.I'm all over him!

Carlos in Cali 23 Jan 2010 6:56 PM

Wow, Winslow Homer! My crystal ball worked! Now, if only it would tell me the next winning set of mega millions numbers...

Lil Darlin 23 Jan 2010 7:10 PM

Coldfact,

     I believe Piscitelli is still running........

Greg J. 23 Jan 2010 7:51 PM

homer was the fox in the woods I thought he could be.  very nice race. like I said real talent there!

draynay 23 Jan 2010 7:54 PM

I was very happy with Maximus Ruler's race today.  He set a fast pace and was able to repel bids from Depaul and Cool Bullet to finish second.  If he rates next time, I think he will win

Alisha 23 Jan 2010 8:00 PM

Carlos in Cali,

Agree with you this time about Ron The Greek (grandson of AP Indy).  Inbreeding to Northern Dancer 5Sx4Dx5S coupled with the presence of prolific derby-winner-producing broodmare sire Dixieland Band as broodmare sire of his second Dam Flambeau is helping him to overcome the slow maturity influence of AP Indy. I'm already convinced that this colt is for real, looking at his race record.  He also has a look of AP Indy's most brilliant son Bernadini.  Ron The Greek is gonna be making some noise on the triple crown trail for sure.  It is clear to me that one of AP INdy's sons is eventually going to produce a derby winner before he ever does.

Ranagulzion 23 Jan 2010 9:28 PM

Ha!  Letsgetitonmon almost caught Maximus Ruler for 2nd.  Let's go a little longer and watch what he does.  

mz 23 Jan 2010 10:20 PM

Dray:

I know it's asking alot to read my monster of a post, so I'll give you a pass.  But I'll be succint here my friend and repeat what I wrote in that earlier post.

ALL THINGS EQUAL, I'LL TAKE A HORSE WITH DIRT EXPERIENCE IN THE DERBY OVER A HORSE RACED EXCLUSIVELY ON SYNTHETICS.

My argument on synthetics, and prepping for the Derby on synthetics, is nuanced.  Sorry if it's not as simple as either "Synthetics suck!" or "Synthetics rule!".

GunBow 23 Jan 2010 10:30 PM

SuccinCt

GunBow 23 Jan 2010 10:35 PM

Jason, thankyou for sharing Christine Daae with us, it will be fun to watch her progress, and who knows she might become something special, you never know, you just have to wait and see. I cannot dismiss her so readily as some

here are so "factually" inclined to do; what if she takes after  Olden Times from her dam side lineage and proves to be solid as a rock.

Of course some young speedsters that come to my mind that had great speed early in their careers, that either fell off due to injury or never really panned out at a distance of ground, were Fruition and King Glorius. Poor Fruition passed early from a heart attack in "08", but he was surely something special as a two year old on the West coast, running one of the fastest 6f's ever by a 2 year old, he was injured from a kick he received not long after that fast 6f's and never seemed the same after that. He went to the breeding shed and for awhile it was fun to watch for his maidens that few would expect much of, and would win at some nice prices.

I also remember King Glorious, being especially fast at a young age, seemed unbeatable in Northern California. I think his one loss came when he tried 2 turns for the first time. After that he never was as great as many had hoped.

So it is good to know about Christine Daae's precociousness, and now that we have her on the radar it can be great fun to watch and see what she does.

And, who cares if it's on dirt or synthetics, sheeesh!

Oh I wish I had mentioned Ron the Greek bdfore this , but I had him as my pick today, was surprised he was 7-1, was hoping for more, not sure what was happening there.

predict 23 Jan 2010 10:37 PM

RtG took advantage of a fast pace, after the pacesetter had already repelled two bids. Something, also, tells me had he come a bit closer to MR, to where MR would've seen him sooner he wouldn't have breezed by so easily. I'll wait before I jump on RtG bandwagon. MR, however, caught my eye a bit with that grit. I thought after the pace he set that he would fade, yet he hung in to repel two other closing bids.

Winslow impressed me a lot. Thanks to a friend mentioning him to me, I was able to look up his maiden and allowence win. I loved both of them and was looking forward to this race. Jackson Bend showed his mettle vs the big boys at Gulfstream. He was darn close to a blistering pace, was a little wide and just kept on coming. The one thing that irks me is that yet again I didn't listen to my gut and took Aikenite over William's Kitten, when I liked the latter the most and just felt that he would run well. This does look like a very competitive three year old crop. A very good way to kick off the new decade.

LDP 23 Jan 2010 10:45 PM

Let's not get all crazy about Ron the Greek. He took advantage of a very fast pace. Reminded me of Win Willy in the Rebel last year. These one-mile preps dont mean much. Baffert and Dutrow said as much this week. Winslow Homer was the more impressive of the two winners today.

I agree with Alisha, Maximus Ruler ran a terrific race. Very fast fractions while pressed and still was game in the stretch. Hes a talented horse. The 1-hole hurt him. He'll be better when he doesnt have to have the lead.

Mz: Letsgetiton isnt fast enough.

Jason Shandler 23 Jan 2010 11:13 PM

Once again, a Todd P. horse fails to live up to pps. May Johnny V. should not be riding first call for him???

Only Triple Crown race Todd P. has won is when G. Gomez won.

Fire Slam 23 Jan 2010 11:34 PM

When are folks going to learn that Johnny V. is way over rated.

Remember his ride on Afleet Alex??? Sure the horse came back with a lung infection. Not sure Im buying that. Up goes J. Rose, and he wins the Arkansas Derby with ease.

I used Winslow Homer with the horse Julian Lapx. rode. Not sure Jackson Bend will stretch out to the classic distance.

Fire Slam 23 Jan 2010 11:38 PM

predict:

King Glorious went on to do some very good things at age 3.  He won both the Ohio Derby(went it still was a legit gr.2 race) and the gr.1 Haskell at 9 furlongs.  In both races he went out extremely fast, openend huge leads, let the horses come back to him, and then kicked away in the stretch to win by 3+ lengths.  The Haskell win made King Glorious 8 for 9 in his career, and a millionaire.  Unfortunately that was it, as he was injured and never ran again.  So, in the case of King Glorious, it was a case of an injury, not that he couldn't get a distance.

GunBow 24 Jan 2010 1:05 AM

What is it about Colizeo, and well bred, and impressive MSW win, and eventual TPletch mismangement, that makes me think he is the 2010 version of Dunkirk, who was lucky to get in last year??  Guess, I shouldn't jinx him this early.  Although the March GP speed bias won't hurt this colt, was a monster right off the lead.  

brettzky99 24 Jan 2010 1:17 AM

Jason,

I am having difficulty digesting my big plate of crow but I must.  I gave you the field and the entire the field finished ahead of Piscitelli. The season is young and he will have a chance at redemption.

Greg J,

I am not one to provide excuses but something must have gone wrong with this colt. Kent would not have stuck with after the BCJ if he didn't think he had a lot of ability. This is the worst performance he has delivered. There could be a host of reasons why this colt finished last so I reserve judgment until then.

I guess my only consolation is the fact that the same thing happened when I touted Mine That Bird for the 2008 BCJ. He finished a disappointing last. He vindicated me by winning the Derby. Piscitelli like Mine That Bird is far better than his last place finished in the Holy Bull.

On the subject of Ron The Greek, he came to my attention when I was the Lecomte field. While researching his pedigree His dam sired by Fortunate Prospect captured my attention because I recalled there was a talented horse from the 2009 3YO whose dam was sire by Fortunate Prospect. I thought it was Rachel so I checked to confirm only to discover her dam was sired by Roar another grandson of Mr. Prospector. Because of time constraint I just stop my research. After watching the Lecomte I revisited the pedigree of RTG because I knew I had seen the dam line with Fortunate Prospect as the sire. Well I was right. His dam Flambe is a full sister to Fortuesque the dam of the consistent and talented Musket Man (3rd Kentucky Derby /Preakness S) RTG is a son of the royally bred Full Mandate the second most expensive son A.P. Indy. Full Mandate like Worldly was produced from a G1 winning mare with over $1M in earnings. He was very average on the track as I think Worldly will be. These G1 mares rarely produce champion horses.

Musket Man was sire by the sprinter Yonguska and RTG by the stamina laden Full Mandate. Full Mandate’s dam was sired by Deputy Minister broodmare sire of three Belmont Stakes winners (Rags To Riches, Jazil & Sarava) and one Breeders Cup Classic winner (Curlin) It appear RTG will run all and unlike Musket  Man has no stamina limitations. He is a May foal he is still a baby. I will take a baby that can close from last to first anyday. Will he be the derby winner? Is he another Pyro? Well, the first three past the post in the 2008 Kentucky Derby i.e., Mine That Bird, POTN & Musket Man were all May foals. In all seriousness, no ordinary horse makes a last to first move in a half mile run in 46 seconds. This colt was easily 15-20 lengths off the pace. He has to be a contender.

In 2009 a lot of posters believed that Musket Man was out running his pedigree (Yonguska - Fotteusque by Fortunate Prospect) and was not a legitimate derby contender. I suspect the same will be said about RTG (Full Mandate - Fotteusque by Fortunate Prospect) Well, in 2009 I highlighted that Musket Man’s 4th dam Prayer Cap was sired by Thinking Cap who was a grandson of the great Sweep. In fact, Thinking Cap was inbred to Sweep in hin3rd generation. Who is Sweep? Well, he is the broodmare sire of two consecutive Triple Crown winners. The 1937 TC winner War Admiral was produced from Brushup a daughter of Sweep. Four years later another mare sired by Sweep (Dustwhirl)produced the 5th TC winner Whirlaway.  Could the great Sweep be having an influence on these broodmare? Your guess is as good as mine. However two full sisters with what will likely be back to back derby starters must be influenced by something.

Coldfacts 24 Jan 2010 6:28 AM

Just to be clear, Mr. Fantasy raced once as a 2yr old, being a very late May foal and 3 times as a 3 yr old. Won 3 times including the grade 3 Withers and ran third to I Want Revenge in the Gotham beaten by a head for second by Imperial Council. IWR ran a 0 on the Rag sheets in the Gotham. He is now back in training at Palm Meadows and had his first official work yesterday. We will see him in March for his first race back from 9 months off. Clearly not a "one hit wonder".

SSA 24 Jan 2010 9:01 AM

christine daae looked better then anything I saw yesterday !

draynay 24 Jan 2010 9:48 AM

Fire Slam,

I am sure Rags To Riches was ridden by Johnny V and not Gomez.

A fact check alert.

Coldfacts 24 Jan 2010 9:54 AM

I agree with you Jason, MR ran a good race.  Put up solid fractions,repelled the challenge of Cool Bullet and held on late. I've been high on MR since he broke his maiden so hopefully he moves forward off of this.

Another horse that ran impressive yesterday was SAVEMYSPOTIMBETING who broke his maiden (I think at first asking) winning by 5 and was just a few ticks off the GP track record for 6F. He's a son of Vindication. I'll be waiting for his next start.

Good to see Freisian Fire back in the winners circle.  He was my one of my favorites pre-Derby last year.  

runfast159 24 Jan 2010 10:04 AM

runfast: I saw the race by savemyspotimbeting. He was impressive and that final time of 1:08 4/5 was terrific. But there was also a 3YO who ran 7 furlongs in 1:21 4/5--another great time. Gulfstream, like last year, seems to playing way faster than any other dirt track. We have to take that into perspective when we evaluate these final times and horses.

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 10:57 AM

 I was very impressed with Winslow Homer yesterday but I don't feel Jackson Bend disgraced himself at all by finishing second. Two very nice horses. As far as the Lecomte, I don't think I saw the next KY Derby winner in that race. I could be wrong. It's early and all the horses that ran yesterday will have to show me again before I jump on the their bandwagon.

 For you people who want to keep bashing Pletcher and Johnny V., keep it up! I admit that Pletcher's TC record is terrible, but if you think he is a bad trainer and Johnny V. is a bad jock you are seriously mistaken. I don't think Aikinite is his "A" horse this year and might not even be in his top 3. IMHO, I think he has a very serious contender in Eskendereya, my early pick to win the Derby. Alot can change from now untill May but that is what makes this so much fun.

longwaytomay 24 Jan 2010 10:59 AM

Greg J- I picked Piscitelli also, and am at a mystery as to why he ran so badly.  I could understanding him not winning and even finishing mid-pack, but dead last..... Hopefully nothing is wrong with him.  The top three ran well.  Winslow Homer showed some maturity for a lightly raced horse.  Always like to see a horse that's not afraid to go between other horses.  And Jackson Bend just keep running impressive races one after the other.  My only concern with him would be distance, but it's early days, so we have plenty to watch.  Maximus Ruler ran his heart out and never gave up.  It was a great race.

Footlick 24 Jan 2010 11:02 AM

I'm sure many owners and trainers wish they had a jockey as bad as Johnny V.

Footlick 24 Jan 2010 11:05 AM

Very much anticipating Mr. Fantasy's return.

Yesterday's races:  like Maximus Ruler.

Derby132 24 Jan 2010 11:05 AM

Before anyone says it I know Maximus Ruler was in Louisianna and not in the Holy Bull-lol!

Footlick 24 Jan 2010 11:29 AM

"I see there are some still some crazy enough to compare....

draynay 23 Jan 2010 11:31 AM"

If anyone knows crazy it's draynay.

Now if we could ONLY get all of you so willing to give opinions and dissect the races, trainers, owners, jockeys and horses to actually come to the races and bet on them we'd be one of the biggest sports in the US again.

SteveStan 24 Jan 2010 12:13 PM

there is nothing special about ron the greek. average front running horses spit the bit coming home that is all.

draynay 24 Jan 2010 12:32 PM

JASON,

You say that Ron The Greek took advantage of a very fast pace in winning the Lecomte. Let me remind you that a very fast pace is what you're going to see in the Kentucky Derby, no doubt about that. You should be careful about knocking down Ron the Greek by referring to Win Willy because that one missed the derby because of injury not lack of ability.  Also by referring to Win Willy you made me think that Maximus Ruler looked a lot like Old Fashioned did last year, and he was short on stamina when the pace was testing in both the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.  History can be a very good teacher if we pay attention.  Ron The Greek is a serious colt, not a flash in the pan.  Look at his race record and be careful not to underestimate him going a distance of ground behind hot early fractions.  He finishes like an express train.  Gotta be a good one.

Ranagulzion 24 Jan 2010 1:35 PM

Christine Daae looked awesome and has the pedigree to match but I've seen a great many "one race wonders" in my time and will therefore wait for an encore before getting on board this waggon.

Regarding the Holy Bull Stakes, the top two finishers Winslow Homer and Jackson Bend looked a cut above the rest but I would cut Homeboykris some slack as he was racing out of character on the lead.  He looks like one of those with the ability to bounce back with an off the pace running style.  Jackson bend is a nice colt but I fear that his pedigree is not deep enough to yield a successful run in the triple crown races.  

Winslow Homer could be the one to breakthrough for Unbridled Song but he must defy history and stay healthy/sound.  If I were Tony Dutrow I'd handle this one very judiciously, with a lot of care and not dance every dance with him.  

Ranagulzion 24 Jan 2010 2:04 PM

piscatelli was not hard to figure out. his pp's told the story. no wins since july and has never shown speed. yeah that was a real tough one to figure !

draynay 24 Jan 2010 2:12 PM

I can't wait to see Quality Road return in the Don!

ZJ 24 Jan 2010 2:22 PM

Cold Facts--

Are ya sure--I thought Garret Gomez was up on Rags to Riches???

Serious questions here, not trying to be a smart butt. Was it Johnny V or G. Gomez?

You are right. I just typed in G. Gomez Rags to Riches on Google, and it stated Johnny V. was up.

I was wrong. My apologies to Mr. Johnny V.

Fire Slam 24 Jan 2010 2:49 PM

Am I the only one feeling UNDERwhelmed by this year's 3YO colt crop?  

I'm not very excited about Winslow Homer since he's an Unbridled's Song and I can't remember any of his progeny making it through the TC series without getting hurt.

Ron the Greek looked pretty good but the long stretch of that track favors deep closers.  My favorite professional handicapper picked Ron to win the Lecomte for that reason.

I hope Baffert makes good on his plans to race Lucky on eastern dirt before the Derby.  If he transfers his form to real dirt then maybe we'll have a star.  

Mary 24 Jan 2010 2:51 PM

longway,

I never said Pletcher was a bad trainer, but certainly did insuate that he seems to have much trouble, converting his perennial top prospects into Triple Crown results.  I would also would never say or insuate that John Velasquez was a less than terrific mount in any situation. In my opinion the Dunkirk situation was just typical, and then to "realize"  GP was favoring speed, post race--come on, the guy is based there during the entire meet, and the entire meet had a speed bias.  Anyway, this has all been said many times last year.  I like Colizeo, at this point, as well as Eskendereya, but until these horses get to 9 furlong seriosness in late March, its all guessing.  Should be fun.

brettzky99 24 Jan 2010 3:04 PM

Longwaytomay,

I saw your post asking about Danny Peitz the trainer of Moojab. Danny was a longtime assistant to Joe Cantey who trained Temprance Hill, Cox's Ridge, and many outstanding racehorses. Danny has Derby experince running 3rd a couple of years ago with Stepenwolfer. Danny maintains a fairly small stable training mostly for Shadwell and Robert and Lawanna Low. Excellant horseman who takes his time but knows how to win races. He is a Little Rock, Ar native who has always done well at Oaklawn. His horse was bothered yesterday by a loose horse so throw that race out.

marktoothaker 24 Jan 2010 3:18 PM

Jason:

The LeComte Stakes might have been a little short of distance for some of these horses. I'll be interested to see how they do when they strechout farther in distance.

tcc 24 Jan 2010 6:07 PM

Greg J., read a story today that said when Honest Wildcat went down, his jockey, Migliori, crawled on his hands and knees then to him and then stroked his neck until track personnel got there. Mig suffered a concussion. HW was later put down.

Tiznowbaby 24 Jan 2010 6:12 PM

Ranagulzion: I'm not going to put down Ron the Greek, I just wasnt as impressed as you. If you like him, great--ante up.

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 6:55 PM

Beyer's Raring's sometimes make zero sense! While I, For one, Don't put much weight into them, I will give you an example from Yesterday, While Winslow Homer received a 91 Beyer for his victory in the Holy Bull, the same Beyer number(91) was given to "Savemyspotimbeting" for his  debut win in  Race #2, BUT,  "Paizano" earned  a Beyer Rating of only 80?, despite setting a new track record going 5.5 furlongs in the sixth race!!!,  Does that make any sense at all? How fast would he have had to run that distance to get the same 91 as "Savemyspotimbeting"????

Crazy!!!!

Tiznowbaby,

      Thanks, I saw that Honest Wildcat had to be put down, A complete shame.  It seems like Mr. Migliori will be fine, He is complaining about blurred vision and is going to have tests mid-week, With hope he can be cleared to race by the weekend.  Pure class and heart he showed towards Honest Wildcat, He is very lucky he wasn't injured worse then he was, It was a incredibly hard fall...

Greg J. 24 Jan 2010 7:53 PM

marktoothaker,

 Thanks, after asking Jason I read an article about Peitz on the Downey Profile. (sorry Jason, but I do read as much as I can) I knew I had heard his name before but I couldn't remember where. Moojab had a horrible start yesterday and I thought the horse throwing the rider had alot to do with it. He did mow down alot of horses in the stretch but had too much left to do after the poor start.

brettzkey99,

 I totally disagree that the track was favoring speed the entire meet. I thought it was pretty fair up untill the day of of the Florida Derby. I will not discredit Quality Road but the track that day was as hard as asphalt.

longwaytomay 24 Jan 2010 8:15 PM

winner of the Derby will come out of the Fountain of Youth, the Sam Davis or the Gotham. My top 3 at this point

Buddy's Saint

Eskendara

Looking for Lucky

and a couple to watch:

Middle of the Nite

Uptowncharliebrown

SSA 24 Jan 2010 8:25 PM

I was out of pocket yesterday but did get a chance to watch replays and must agree Laheen looked very good. Ghostzapper is being dismissed already in the sales ring recently but he may wind up having to say in the matter yet. This filly had trouble and fought on gamely to get the money. Forever Endeavor has been well thought of by Spendthrift since she arrived at the track.

marktoothaker 24 Jan 2010 8:54 PM

Jason, Footlick, Laz, etc. -- I have a general Triple Crown question.  Please keep in mind that I'm new to the sport so my question is probably elementary.  Here goes:

Why is the Triple Crown series still for 3-year olds?  I know many years ago horses had rigorous campaigns at 2 and 3, so they started the TC season with experience.  I could really get into that if things didn't change so much, but now most horses have just a handful of races under their girths before making the trip to Kentucky.  Logically thinking, I would be willing to guess that's why there hasn't been a TC winner in over 30 years. From Count Fleet through Affirmed, Seattle Slew was the only one to have less than nine starts as a 2-year old.  

Personally, I'd rather see horses with more experience duke it out in such prestigious races instead of the best of the inexperienced 3-year old crop.  That's probably why I like the BC more than the TC races.

I guess my real question is why have things changed so much for the "average" 2-year old campaign?  Such inexperience doesn't seem conducive to conquering the Triple Crown.

Any and all explanations are appreciated.  

The Rookie 24 Jan 2010 9:05 PM

Hi Everyone.  Just thought I would come over here & say hi. :)  See if all of ya are gettin along. LOL

Johnny V was on Rags.  I hit the 5 pick on that race missing the 6 by one horse & she was "Wait A While" in the 7th race at Belmont that year. :)

Hi Greg J.  everyone else.... hope ur all havin a good evening.  

stardustyrose 24 Jan 2010 9:29 PM

R.I.P.  ♥Honest Wildcat♥  :(

stardustyrose 24 Jan 2010 9:30 PM

Jason, although 'Lookin At Lucky' is California based with Baffert, He has said that he was going to run him in the derby right? I thought I heard he was, I know you or this panel would know?

carolyn 24 Jan 2010 10:06 PM

     I waited all year for that one interception that Brett is famous for, Sorry to say, I saw it tonight with seven seconds to go in the fourth quarter!!!  

     Colts & Saints going to the big dance, They were the best all year, Only fitting...

Greg J. 24 Jan 2010 10:24 PM

Have you ever seen anything more predictable in sports? Big game, season on the line, and Favre throws an interception.

I told you guys last year when they first signed this fraud he was the biggest choke artist in sports. He can throw as many TDs in the regular season as he wants, he will always be known for throwing the huge INT when it matters most.

Congrats New Orleans. You get to play against the best QB ever in the Super Bowl. After Peyton gets his second ring, there will be no denying that.

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 10:44 PM

...Oh, and shockingly, Dray is a Vikings fan. Has there ever been a bigger jinx to horses or a football team than this guy??

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 10:48 PM

Jason,

     Wait a second, PLEASE!, You obviously misspoke, Tom Brady is the Best QB in Super Bowl history, Hands Down! Even if you throw out the game against the Giants, He has Peyton beat 3-1 in Super Bowls and better Stats in the Big Game...

The CURSE of Draynay strikes again!  Nobody is safe...

Greg J. 24 Jan 2010 11:06 PM

Greg: Brady is great but if you look at the numbers there is no comparison. By the time he is done, Petyon will hold every passing record in the NFL. And he will have 2 rings or more. Yes, Brady has 3 and might get more too, but everything is not based on rings. If that were the case, you could say Bradshaw was the best ever or, I don't know, Bernie Williams is the best center fielder of all time. Its not that cut and dry. You have to take everything into the equation. Petyon, Elway and Montana are in a class by themselves. Brady isnt far behind...

One thing we can agree on though...Favre is the biggest choke ever.

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 11:14 PM

Jason:

You're mention of Colizeo, as he stretched out in distance, he did somewhat better as the distance got

longer.

His 1st race 6f finished 10th

"   2nd "    1 mile " 2nd

"   3rd "    1 1/16 " 2nd

"   4th "    1 1/8  " 1st

tcc 24 Jan 2010 11:16 PM

Jason,

    My bad, I thought by your comment, "You get to play against the best QB ever in the Super Bowl."  I thought you were saying Peyton was the best in Super Bowl History.  I will give you his stats and that he is one of the best ever to play the game.  Brett was just choking up during his post game press conference, Didn't surprise me, lol.  He just retired again at the podium and left, Wait, He is coming back to the podium, He is un-retiring, Wait, Forget it, You all know how this will end or won't end, lol...

Greg J. 24 Jan 2010 11:27 PM

Greg: I just looked it up: Petyon has 50,125 pssing yards and 366 TDs. Brady has 30,844 yards and 225 TDs.

Jason Shandler 24 Jan 2010 11:29 PM

Jason- I agree with you.  Manning is amazing- and O don't follow football.  Manning will be one of the great QB's of all time.  Why can't people see this????

Footlick 24 Jan 2010 11:45 PM

Jason,

    You have to remember, I am a Pats Fan, Peyton has been our enemy for ten years, I can't in good faith come out and say he is the best ever, It just wouldn't seem right, You can understand that...

With that said, Go Saints!!!!!!

Greg J. 24 Jan 2010 11:59 PM

Being a life long Packer fan I feel much better tonight with Favre.  I thought he only did bone head plays being a Packer.  I'm glad to see he doesn't discriminate !!   I was rooting for him tonight I must admit, only in the hopes he would win the big show so my Packer football cards of him would go up in $$$ !!  lol

Cold Facts:  keep up with the interesting pedigree's.  I enjoy them all!

Dray:   I hope we get to hear another one of your horse interviews this season!!  lol  Loved it!!

ValeOfYork 25 Jan 2010 12:47 AM

Brady has THREE Super Bowl Rings, Peyton has ONE.

Rachel 25 Jan 2010 8:04 AM

Man, I just read a tear-jerker about The Mig's accident...despite his injuries he crawled over to Honest Wildcat and calmed and petted him until the ambulances got there...geesh, God Bless you, Mig.

Rachel 25 Jan 2010 8:07 AM

Jason quit being such an a** about Favre. The Vikings win the game if Peterson doesn't fumble on the goal line just b4 the half, it was his fumble not Favres. If Percy Harvin doesn't fumble giving the Saints another gift on the Vikings 7 yrd line the Vikings win. If Berrian doesn't fumble the Vikings win. You could go on and on. The fact is the Vikings beat the Saints all over the field just couldn't hang on to the ball. Brett Favre was a major reason the Vikings stayed in the game. He was beat up, hurt, and kept bringing them back. It should not have come down to the last interception. Give the guy some credit, I thought you were supposed to be an unbiased reporter?  

slyder 25 Jan 2010 9:10 AM

I saw nothing very impressive in either race on Saturday. Winslow Homer and Jackson Bend coming home in 26 for the last quarter put me too sleep. Their only hope is when they get a slower pace going longer they can finish much better. Until I see it from either one of them forget it. Next race at longer will tell us more than this race did. The other race was a complete yawner.

the_wiz 25 Jan 2010 9:17 AM

After watching the replay of the Lecomte, RTG was flying down the middle of the track. yes, the pace was decent, but 46 and change is going to be typical for a race like the Derby, and the stretch at CD is pretty long. His win was quite impressive visually, so now I guess we just wait to see how he does next out.

On Winslow, I was hesitant as were most of us on the board b/c we did not think we would be ready to come out and win, but he was a very nice suprise and I am happy for the connections. Larry Jones would of had another Derby horse had he not retired... William's Kitten closed well to get up for third.

Billy's Empire 25 Jan 2010 9:53 AM

Greg J

Isn't it ironic that possibly Farve's last play in the NFL was that interception.  Personally it look good on him.  He could have ran the ball a good 10 yards then slid down.  He could have passed out in the flats to his right for another 8 or 10 yards.  But not Farve.  I honestly think that he was trying to end the game by throwing a dramatic touchdown pass.  At least we don't have to watch him running around the field with his hand in the air and looking up in the stands anymore.

LAZMANNICK 25 Jan 2010 9:57 AM

Jason, all that would have made the Favre choke better is a ban bet with Dray.

Like I said months ago, please get off my Derby horse. He didn't now we're scrambling to catch up as he ran into problems.

Now we can all wait as BF goes home, decides if he can drum up enough tears (he was having lower lip trembling yesterday)to cry as he retires and comes back yet again.

I like the Saints, the reality is as you said about P Man, to me only Elway can compare.

Tim G 25 Jan 2010 10:45 AM

Anne M.  Blind Luck had a nice work Sunday.  Finished the last 1/8th in 11.  I hope the "Dorf" takes a shot at the Santa Anita Derby after the Las Virgenes.  Depending on what Lookin at Lucky's plans are, she might be in a little steep though.  This trainer can wreak some havoc (Heetseeker, Hystericalady) against top grade 1s.  

Householder 25 Jan 2010 11:58 AM

Slyder: If if if. lol. The reality is, Favre's INT cost his team another chance at a Super Bowl. We have seen it time and time again over his career. It's like a replay. The man chokes when the game is on the line. That is not my opinion, it is fact. All you have to do is watch him to see this. The fumble in the first half was just as much Favre's fault as Peterson. In fact, the fumble was charged to Favre. All the other turnovers hurt (including favre's first INT), but the fact is, they had the game with 19 seconds left if Brett doesnt do his same old thing. Choke.

Brett: Go milk you 'retirement" for another three months to feed you ego and then come back and do your INt thing again next year. We'll be waiting!

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 12:12 PM

The penalties went a long way in helping the Vikings stay in the game.  It got so that every time Farve was on the ground he was holding his hand in the air looking for a call. And don't forget Bush's fumble at the ten.  It was sweet justice that the Vikes fumbled it back.  GO SAINTS!!!!!

LAZMANNICK 25 Jan 2010 12:14 PM

There are plenty of Quarterbacks that would stack up very favorably against Peyton Manning from the past. Manning plays in an era that babies a quarterback, muffles defensive lineman (remember when the head slap was legal?), and gives an unbelievable advantage to wide receivers. The NFL puts a premium on offense and scoring points to the extent they have made a quarterbacks life so much easier. I agree that Manning is one of the best of his era but that doesn't mean he could have survived with such success in another.  

Y A Tittle 25 Jan 2010 12:17 PM

Jason, you'd think Favre cost you a marriage or something the way you belittle him. The fumble at the end of the half was charged to him but if you actually watched the game you would know that AP was looking upfield and had closed his arms together so there was no way Favre could have fit the ball in. One play doesn't cost a team the game anyway, without Favre the Vikings would not have been in position to win the game at that point. Plenty of blame to go around if you want to play that game. To pin in on one individual who played his guts out is nonsense. You aren't even a good armchair quarterback if you are that blind to how the game went.

slyder 25 Jan 2010 12:24 PM

Rachel,

 How many superbowl rings has Brady and the Pats won since their coach got caught cheating?

longwaytomay 25 Jan 2010 12:34 PM

Ron the Greek was the ONLY one closing on those splits and the final time was solid.He looks like the real deal.Like Ranagulzion mentioned: Maximus Ruler= Old Fashioned,(high cruiser & one paced),susceptible to real closers.

The Holy Bull field was unimpressive with that slow,fire-breathing finish.

The Viking's costly turn-overs did them in.They would've had the game won well before Favre's pick.They out-played the lucky Aints all game.He can't take all the blame,that's for sure.Turn-overs,turn-overs,turn-overs..there's no excuses for that. Plus,I'm glad the Jets lost.Glad I won't have to see or hear Big mouthed Ryan anytime soon.

Carlos in Cali 25 Jan 2010 2:11 PM

Carlos: Three of the five turnovers were Favre's--all in crucial spots. Same old, same old.

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 2:40 PM

I'm with you Jason on Favre. "Is that a Hairball Brett, or do you just always choke and cough it up in the playoffs?" EPIC FAIL. They could of actually had 9 turnovers in that game.... AP needs to learn how to hold onto the ball

Billy's Empire 25 Jan 2010 3:07 PM

Favre threw an NFL high of 22 interceptions last year with the Jets...which is why he gave his "teary" goodbyes and got to pick another team to play for.  

Householder 25 Jan 2010 3:09 PM

Jason

Agreed,..Favre's picks were bone-headed plays,but he played his butt-off considering he was ON his butt all day.W/out the turn-overs the Vikes cruise,easy.The better team lost that game,though I give props to the Saints for the pressure they put on Favre...shoulda',coulda',woulda'.BTW: who do you hate more...Favre or Vick?  tough one ain't it...lol

How about D.Wayne for your next interview piece?..I wanna' hear his latest point of view regarding his opinion that the Triple Crown series should be re-vamped.Or,Ron the Greek's trainer Tom Amoss to verify that he's not another Win Willy...

Carlos in Cali 25 Jan 2010 4:01 PM

Hearing lots of rumors out of New Orleans that Rachel may be retired. A lot of smoke to not be a fire.

marktoothaker 25 Jan 2010 4:47 PM

Marktoothaker: Stop with your unfounded rumors unless you are going to name a credible source. She's not retired.

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 5:00 PM

Longwaytomay,

    Let's see, The video taping story broke in Sept. 2007, After that the Patriots went 18-0 before losing one of the best Super Bowls ever, Then they had no Tom Brady last year, And still went 11-5.  Then went 11-5 this year and won the division, But, You are right, The video taping was the only reason they won three Super Bowls in four years! Please, Is that the best you can do?, Give me a break...

Greg J. 25 Jan 2010 5:01 PM

Jshandler--

All marketoothaker did was say rumors are going around. If you dont want to listen, then dont. Never said it was true. No need to attack someone.

Hope RA is retired. That way we dont have to listen to folks complain about her breaking down and pointing fingers. Of course this will be the same folks who are happy she is suppose to be coming back. They are thanking Mr. Jackson now, but when she breaks down, they will rip him.

She has beat boys, her own, and set numerous historical records. Let her go be a mother, and let racing enjoy her "mini me's."

Fire Slam 25 Jan 2010 5:17 PM

Fireslam: Not an attack, but if you are going to bring a rumor like that to this blog you better have a source. You sound like a great racing fan--wishing RA was retired. That will be great for the sport.

Carlos: Easy one. Vick by a landslide. Favre isnt a bad person, just has a huge ego and came up small in the biggest situations of his career.

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 5:23 PM

so much for a horse racing blog lol,

marktoothaker you can't be saying that crap without a source! Jason has the right to get pissed about it. A few days ago the Daily Racing Form posted an article about her being close to her first work and then her fitness would improve quickly. I think all of you Rachel haters just don't want her to race because she'll crash Zenyatta's return (no offense toward Zenyatta intended).

P.S. Nobody has any right to determine how long a horse should be rested. I've seen some people saying that Rachel has been off for "too long." Are you the trainer? Please.

funnycideoflife 25 Jan 2010 5:38 PM

Toothacker,  If she was retired, he wouldnt' announce it so soon after the the awards. I believe they would wait til around March or April. So it wouldn't look so obvious.

carolyn 25 Jan 2010 5:50 PM

Greg J.

 I know but I couldn't resist. I don't hate the Pats or T. Brady but I can't stand Belichick. Bigger egomaniac than Favre. The fact that the "video taping story" cost Bill a cool $500,000 made me a happy camper.

longwaytomay 25 Jan 2010 6:00 PM

JASON

I know you liked Mr. Fantasy last yr. I also do. Can you tell me if his injuries were serious? Also,what's the latest status on Life Is Sweet? Thanks!

Mike Relva 25 Jan 2010 6:01 PM

I think you guys that picked piscatelli are shocked he didnt win....really this horse is not a dirt horse and synthetics doesnt always translate into sucess on dirt so beware when all of you start thinking about looking at lucky and I also think that ron the greek might be good.

It Aint Easy being good 25 Jan 2010 6:02 PM

Jason:

Looks like Interactif will be staying on turf for now. he is a nominee for the Hallendale Beach (Feb. 7th) Gulfstream 1 1/16 turf.

tcc 25 Jan 2010 6:40 PM

It Ain't Easy being good- I just think his race was too bad to really be a true reflection of the horse.  I'm not sure that he can't run on dirt, as much as he threw in a bad race.  As long as he's fine and nothing is wrong with him, it's early enough to regroup.  I am aware that synthetics don't translate to dirt many times, but his breeding is pretty strong for the dirt.  Let's hope he's ok.  I'm notshocked he didn't win- this is horse racing.  I'm glad though that you can tell that he is not a dirt horse.

Footlick 25 Jan 2010 6:42 PM

Mike Relva.  I read that Life is Sweet "tied-up" and was scratched from the San Gorgonio and is now being pointed towards the Santa Maria (Feb 13).  This is not the "latest" though.  Could see a "closer" showdown between Life is Sweet and Stardom Bound.

Householder 25 Jan 2010 6:46 PM

Wouldn't surprise me a bit if RA was retired. They want no part of Zenyatta and now that she's on the horizon and the challenge has been laid down it would be typical to duck her again. They could have met her last year but chickened out.

joe schmoe 25 Jan 2010 7:02 PM

Ouch!,don't hold back on your feelings J-shizzle...lol

Relva,Mr.Fantasy is half the horse he used to be ever since I Want Revenge hit him w/a devastating Mexican liver-punch turning for home,in last yr's Gotham.Jason can attest to this.  :)  

Carlos in Cali 25 Jan 2010 7:03 PM

tcc: No surprise. That was the race Pletcher told me he was sending Interactif to in the Q&A I did with him. He may even run another turf race in March. The main goal is the Santa Anita Derby.

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 7:05 PM

Mike: Mr. Fantasy's injury was not serious, although I dont recall exactly what it was. I think he needed to be freshened mainly. He's back on the work tab.

Jason Shandler 25 Jan 2010 7:08 PM

P.S. Nobody has any right to determine how long a horse should be rested. I've seen some people saying that Rachel has been off for "too long." Are you the trainer? Please.

funnycideoflife 25 Jan 2010 5:38 PM

Not of her, but yes.

Those saying she's running in April? Hustle up boys, one or two gallops so far?  Hmmmm.

SteveStan 25 Jan 2010 7:12 PM

Longway,

You're gonna slam Billy B and defend Pletcher.  I gotta give you props for going to bat for him during TC season.  The  Cali board concluded good ol TPletch never knew of last procaine injection prior to the BC, sure.  Its called friends in high places.  Anyway, I was pretty sure there was a predominant speed bias during the 09 GP meet; actually thought some of the Dunkirk hype was that he swung 4 and 5 wide on the turns in that Feb Allowance race, and also overcame the speed favoring track.  Anyways, the challenge is on-he's as loaded as he's ever been, in my opinion.  His maiden winner Colizeo could be the best of them all, impressive while green as could be, and has run 9f. I just like poking at Pletcher; he's obviously more than accomplished.  Heck, the horse that beat him last year is now in his barn.  Also, it will be interesting where he preps all of his horses, assuming there all still live in March.

brettzky99 25 Jan 2010 7:33 PM

HOUSEHOLDER

Thanks for the update.

Mike Relva 25 Jan 2010 8:29 PM

brettzky99,

 Actually the Cali board concluded that Pletcher had his vet give Wait A While an injection of Procaine Penicillin G. It was given 18 days prior to the BC. He was assured by his vet that it would be out of the system of the horse in 14 days. They concluded it was evident that there was no injection given after the one given 18 days before the race. He still got 60 days and a $25,000 fine. They reduced the suspension to 10 days if he has no violations in North America for 1 year. These are the type of violations that occur that I can understand how they happen. I am not condoning it, I just see how that type of mistake can happen. I applaud the Cali board for giving the fine and suspension even though they saw no intent on Pletcher's part. As far as Billy B. goes, I am long time Cleveland Brown fan. When he was in Cleveland he was a complete jerk.

longwaytomay 25 Jan 2010 8:41 PM

Jason,

    Side question here, Any Idea what is going on with Mr. Pletcher's filly "Awesome Maria"?  Haven't heard or seen anything since her second in the Frizette Stakes back in October?, Thanks in advance...

Longwaytomay,

     No harm, No foul! Yes. Mr. Belichick does gave a huge ego, But, Not nearly as big as Mr Favre's...

Greg J. 25 Jan 2010 10:34 PM

Jason:

The Fountain of Youth is starting to shape up, possible starters could be Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, Buddy's Saint, Eskendereya, Lost Aptitude.

tcc 25 Jan 2010 10:40 PM

I saw Christine Daae at Gulfstream. And her chestnut coloring, athlecticism, poise, and physique reminded me of a female version of Secretariat.

What a magnificent horse and what ability she has.

Let's just see what she can do before any comparisons are made.

TerriZ 26 Jan 2010 12:29 AM

Christine Daae is not a good enough mover to ever be anything close to Rachel Alexandra.  

Lost in the Fog 26 Jan 2010 9:54 AM

what a great idea run the horse in the santa anita ? no winner there has won the derby in 20 years. how dumb is that ?

draynay 26 Jan 2010 10:42 AM

sHE IS PRETTY INPRESSIVE BUT I HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT SHE DOES IN THE FUTURE TO MAKE THAT CALL TO ME RIGHT NOW TO COMPAIR RACHEL TO HER IS NOT SOMETHING I AM WILLING TO DO JUST YET.  WHAT RACHEL HAS IS SOMETHING TO BE HONIST WITH YOU I HAVE NEVER SEEN.  hOW I WISH CHRISTINE DAAE ALL THE BEST I HOPE SHE CAN PROVE HERSELF BUT YOU CAN'T TELL ALOT BY THERE FIRST RACE.  GOOD HORSES ALWAYS TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SHINE.

Matt H. 26 Jan 2010 11:09 AM

Joe S.--

Zennyata is the one that did not leave California. Maybe once, I believe, in the Apple Blossom. Why not?

RA connections did not want to run on plastic. Its fake. RA likes dirt. You dont run a turf horse on dirt. Why would you run a dirt horse on plastic?

Same with Zenyatta. You dont run a plastic horse on real dirt. Heck, RA won in the mud and on dry tracks.

Also, RA ran the whole race. From gate wire. No sitting back an waiting, while others set it up for her.

Fire Slam 26 Jan 2010 11:28 AM

Give her a grade 91 or 92

100 best

steve s 26 Jan 2010 2:11 PM

Fire Slam are you REALLY a horseman? Can't be. No legitimate horseman thinks a horse should only run gate to wire.

The horse should run the race that best fits it's style, best fits it's physicality. It's up to the trainer to figure out what that style is and play to the best attributes of the horse.

Even when the pace is lacking a great horse can still win, be it as a closer on front runner.

I can only imagine what racing would be if we had no stalkers, no closers. Oh wait, it'd be like QH racing where they all run to the front and try to stay there.

I don't believe you just made that comment.

Zenyatta took a lunch break in the track kitchen? Must have missed that one.

Tim G 26 Jan 2010 3:18 PM

Fire Slam--  you cannot be serious.

Carlos in Cali 26 Jan 2010 4:03 PM

Interactif may be in over his head at the Santa Anita Derby against Lookin at Lucky, American Lion, Conveyance, and a possible Blind Luck.  Seems like a long way to travel to loose.

Householder 26 Jan 2010 8:09 PM

Householder- thanks for trying to get this blog back on track.  Although I disagree with your assessment of Interactif, I do note Looking at Lucky an Blind Luck as threats.  Let me wait and see about American Lion and Conveyance.  I don't think Conveyance is in Congaree's league, but it is early.

Footlick 26 Jan 2010 11:49 PM

Rachael Alexander look out; Secretariat's great, great grandaughter, Christine Daae is coming. And she has the looks and hopefully, the ability of Big Red.

It looks like it's going to be another fascinating year for the fillies; GO GIRL POWER.

TerriZ 27 Jan 2010 1:32 AM

See what you started Jason,now people think any & all female racehorses can do what Rachel A. & Zenyatta did last year...off of a freakin' maiden win.  (shaking my head)

Carlos in Cali 27 Jan 2010 6:33 PM

Carlos in Cali- LOL!

Footlick 27 Jan 2010 7:47 PM

I agree 100% that a trainer needs to figure out the horses style. Zens style is to sit back, relax, and come running. RA is to got out and run gate to wire, no holding back. You run with her you get cooked. You dont run with her, you back peddle.

I never said a horse should only run gate to wire. Dont try to play it off as if I did. I said Rachel runs the entire race, with no holding back. Where as Zen sits back, and depends on others to cook themselves and then comes running. Nowhere did i say a horse has to run gate wire.

I hate a front runner. First thing my father did when the babies began to work, was work them behind horses, and teach them to come between horses at the top of the stretch.

Fire Slam 29 Jan 2010 1:03 AM

Tim G--

Just read over what I posted. Nowhere did i say a horse should only run gate to wire. Still trying figure out why you would try and change that around.

I stated a fact. Zen sits backs and waits for the pace to start folding. She then comes running.

RA goes gate to wire, and runs her opponents into the ground.

I will take a closer any day. I hate it when a speed ball is cooked by cheap speed. RA will hook a cheap speed horse soon, and she will get cooked.

Fire Slam 29 Jan 2010 1:07 AM

Fire Slam- If a stretch runner just sat back and waited until the pace starts to fold, they would be too far back to catch any horse.  If a horse is 10 lengths back at the quarter, and then still 10 lengths back at the half, they are running as fast as the pace.  Otherwise they would fall even farther back.  It's a myth that a closer doesn't run the whole race.  Otherwise they would loose contact with the field.  

Footlick 29 Jan 2010 11:41 AM

That should be lose- sorry.

Footlick 29 Jan 2010 11:51 AM

"Also, RA ran the whole race. From gate wire. NO SITTING BACK AN WAITING, while others set it up for her.

Fire Slam 26 Jan 2010 11:28 AM"

I didn't make it up, nor did I twist your words. I'm not the only one who understood you to say that Rachel ran the whole race and Zenyatta just sat back and waited for others to set it up.  THAT is what you said. The fact that you said RACHEL RAN ALL OF HER RACES?  How did you expect it to be interpreted????? Since she is virtually a front runner in all of her races?

Maybe a little less hyperbole and fiction and a little more on point, less speculation? Maybe the Fire Slam should be Fire Water? As in not drinking it?

Tim G 29 Jan 2010 3:54 PM

TIM G--26 Jan 2010 3:18 PM

Fire Slam are you REALLY a horseman? Can't be. No legitimate horseman thinks a horse should only run gate to wire.

Those are your words to my original post about Rachel running gate to wire. Where did I say horses should run gate to wire? Now, I know what I typed. I said Rachel runs gate wire. Are you trying to say she dont? I would like to  know what RA you are watching!!!

Would also like to know what Zen you are watching. She stays back and waits, and then comes with one big run.

Where the heck did I say all horses need to run gate to wire. I said RA and you poofs know it.

Fire Slam 29 Jan 2010 5:07 PM

Foot Lick--

Your assumption is exactly why RA would beat Zen.

It is Know myth that closers cant catch soft fractions. If it was, then why do trainers continue to throw rabbits in races, to set it up for closers????

Fast paces sits it up for closers to come  with a run.

Are ya serous that you don't  understand that? Hope you never give handicapping lessons!! Ha Ha!!

Fire Slam 29 Jan 2010 5:11 PM

AHHHHHHH !  If I have to hear one more word about Zenyatta who has yet to beat a single male on dirt I may go nuts.

Draynay 29 Jan 2010 10:33 PM

Fire Slam- You always start insulting people when you know they have just proved you wrong or can't refute what they have said.  I'm not rising to the bait.  Closers have closed into soft fractions since racing began.  The use of a rabbit was to tire or excite a free-running committed front runner like Bold Ruler or Dr Fager.  Only people who don't know how to use rabbits use them against tractable horses.  That's why the modern-day rabbit doesn't work.

Footlick 29 Jan 2010 10:58 PM

Who in the world can predict how Rachel will run this year? Everyone is speculating how she can beat all horses, she hasn't came onto the tracks yet, she may not be as good as last year, who knows, hell who can predict?, I am a Zenyatta fan, but until she hits the track we can't predict her either. I do know we haven't heard anything of RA since Sept. We have heard she is galloping and jogging, so we can't say, can we? I have heard of Zenyatta's timed workouts, but nothing on Rachel yet. So all fans of both sides can only wait and see what the horse and the racing god's have in store for us......they both may be better off in the breeding shed this year.  As far as Rachel, it was easier to predict how Curlin would come back the next year, but I don't think it will be that easy to predict how Rachel will come back this year.  Speedball horses may give it all one year and be wiped out the next. We will have to wait and see?

carolyn 29 Jan 2010 11:17 PM

Geez, post less and read more.

YOU said that Rachel VS Zenyatta, Rachel RUNS her races while others set Zenyatta's race up for her and she just runs down the lane. THAT is basically saying that a horse who only runs that last quarter or less, is a lesser horse. THAT is the way you presented it.

Truth is, a closer better be keeping in contact, running their race, have an afterburner and a smart strategic jock on them or they DO lose contact with the field and cannot recover. It almost happened to Zen when Mikey tried to control her too much and not let her run her style.

Trainers who put a rabbit in a race, KNOW they have to have a quick pace for their closer to win. If you have a closer who can be strategic like Zen, then a soft pace isn't as harmful.

You need to start hanging out with more knowledgeable horsemen, stay away from the riff-raff.

Tim G 30 Jan 2010 1:17 PM

Tim G--

I agree with you. A horse like Zen, don't think it matters about pace up front.

Unless a monster like RA is up there. Also agree I hang around some really bad riff-raff. Nothing like race trackers. See and hear some very bad things.

Fire Slam 30 Jan 2010 11:22 PM

Dray- I haven't mentioned either of them, but you mention one quite a lot.

Footlick 31 Jan 2010 12:04 AM

Foot Lick--

You must be watching other races then everyone else. Don't know how many times horse go 22 and change, and falter, because the pace was too fast. And then a late runner comes running and wins.

Your just wrong on the pace. If it is fast, too fast, it don't hold up, and sits up for a closer.

The end. Don't have time to argue with someone who don't know anything.

Fire Slam 31 Jan 2010 4:19 PM

Fire Slam- Give it up.  There are may closers who have won without  a 22 and change pace.  Of course if it's too fast it DOESN'T hold up.  But many closers have won off of less taxing fractions.  Your father must have told you that if he trained his horses to come from off the pace.  You are the one who is wrong.  I don't argue and you know it, so instead you turn it into I don't know anything.  Again,  resorting to insults.  As usual.  Good bye!

Footlick 31 Jan 2010 11:56 PM

What we do know is that Zenyatta runs well fresh.  Take a look at what she did to Life is Sweet in the Milady coming off a 7 month layoff.  Life is Sweet had been picking up graded stakes wins across town against Grade 1 company.  She owned Santa Anita's winter meet and if you did not catch her in the BC Lady's Classic your loss.  

Take a look at what Zenyatta did to Ginger Punch coming off a 3 month lay off.  She was 8 lengths ahead of Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom.  She humiliated the Eclipse award winner.

Moss has thrown down the gauntlet.  Where going to find what races RA is entered in and enter!  We are going to track her down.

Householder 01 Feb 2010 3:25 PM

How cool is this?

"As the field for Saturday's 300,000 Santa Margarita moved toward the final turn, Gomez could not help noticing that rival jockeys kept checking over their shoulders for the heavily favored Life is Sweet.

"They were all looking back at me."

Life is Sweet went on to defeat Grade 1 Winner Santa Teresita in the Grade 1 race.

Householder 02 Feb 2010 7:57 PM

I think she would do good against the boys. She did a wonderful race here and has a good future.

Maggie 25 Feb 2010 9:42 AM

Wow, this Christine is fast.  Thanks a lot, Jason, for the heads-up!

while Christine is the "hot" horse right now, we may have to wait a bit more to see if she got the stamina to outlast the 2010 season.  Good luck!  Maybe she'll be Eclipse Best 3 YO by year's end!

Looking at Christine, only makes me appreciate RACHEL even more-- she truly is a GEM of a horse.  She not only DESTROYED all the females in Grade 1 races, she also was UNDEFEATED by any MALE horse (young or older) in Grade 1 races on dirt.  WOW!  And she demolished Males not just once, but THRICE!!  That's my RACHEL!!

DRAYNAY:  You are right-- Zen has never defeated a single male horse on dirt!  Last time she defeated females on dirt was 2 years ago at the 2008 AB.  I think the handicappers will put Rachel a slight favorite over Zenyatta at the Apple Blossom.  

I was watching Rachel's last workout at Youtube, and I can say that, unlike what naysayers say, she's actually a lot stronger and "friskier" than before.  It seemed the Woodward didn't do any real damage to her, and that's good to see.

In fact, Terry was "holding down" Rachel so hard, he's almost standing up vertical from the saddle!  It looks to me that Terry has a lot harder time keeping Rachel down, than he did last year, prepping up Rachel for the Haskell.  So, I disagree that Rachel is slow-- Terry and Asmussen just wanna make sure that Rachel doesn't run amok all over the track, and get injured!  And Asmussen himself is not so bothered-- her final 22 sec final furlong is amazing!  

GO, GO, Rachel!  KICK THEIR BUTTS IN THE NEW ORLEANS LADIES!! WOOHOO!

Pasturelands 06 Mar 2010 7:22 AM


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