I like pleasant storm in the southwest and also dryfly. First pleasant story went two turns for the first time and def. was catching dry fly. He has never lost before that race and I see a big improvement come saturday but we shall see!

Glad to see that Zito is still going with J Rose on JB.

JB ran well in the Holy Bull.

I have a few different picks as far as the races go,

Fountain of Youth- Definately a tough choice between Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend, but I think Buddy's Saint will get the win.

Risen Star- I of course like Drosselmeyer, he is one of my favorites as far as Derby horses.

Southwest- I like Conveyance, but I am not dead set on him yet.

You are right, much more will be known about this current crop after this weekend.

I like Jackson Bend too, he has a good foundation under him.  I've seen Buddy's Saint recently and too me he almost looks a little light right now.  I still hope he runs big.  I like him.

There are alot of horses to be excited about, just to see where they stand.  In particular Lost Aptitude going on the dirt, Dublin on his return, and Tempted to Tapit in a step up in class.

Bruce Levine does very well with horses coming off from a layoff. And considering that Buddy's Saint is one of the best horses he has trained in 30 years, I expect him to be ready. There are no killers in this race, he can run at 80% and still win.

Jackson Bend does like to win at Calder, I don't see him at his best going 1 1/8 or longer. I am also expecting a big race out of Eskendereya. There should be plenty of pace for Buddy to close in on.

In the Risen Star I am going with Hotep, maybe not to win just yet, but to complete an exacta with Ron the Greek or Tempted to Tapit.

I'm using Pulsion and maybe Ice Box in my FOY exotics.  Haven't made any other firm decisions yet.  

I'm taking a wait and see attitude with Dublin.  

would pick ron the greek in the risen starand call the other races toss ups.

I won't be surprised if Ice Box wins the Fountain of Youth. The proper way to pronounce his name, by the way , is to make ICE into two syllables, like I'SUH Box. Practice it, as you will probably be saying his name alot, after this race.

Eskendereya will relish the stretchout more than anyone in the field. Definitely him and Drosselmeyer for the derby, but will the track be so fast on saturday that buddy gets away from everyone. You know on big days they do speed up the track, wanting faster times

does radiohead have a chance on saturday?

Okay folkes here are Ranaguzion's weekend whoppers. In the FOY: Eskendereya (very fit and improving) to repel Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend and march to the head of the class for Derby 2010.

Risen Star: Ron The Greek's explosive rally should be enough to scorch Discreetly Mine while others stay put behind Stay Put.

Southwest: Wiring this field will be Mission Impazzible with Dublin dodging a Cool Bullet (figure?)

Hutcheson: This is no joke, D'Funnybone is a "soup" (way too hot for A Little Warm and a buzzing Radiohead (catch my drift?)

The Silverbulletday: Who cares? "The (she) Devil" might, with an absolute runaway.

El Camino Real Derby: Jairzinho is the name of a tricky and elusive Brazilian goal scoring soccer star from the famous 1970 World Cup championship team. The 3YO colt bearing his name is going to escape from Ranger Heartley and Connemara at Golden Gate on the weekend.  Make sure that you catch him.

Southwest : Pleasant Storm / Dublin exacta

Risen Star : Drosselmeyer / Hotep exacta

FOY : Buddy's Saint / Eskendereya exacta

Hutcheson : A little Warm / D'Funnybone exacta

El Camino Real : Connemara / any 10-1 and up exacta

Just think Dublin won the Hopeful with an epiglostis problem with only 60% breathing capacity and "won". Think what he'll do now being ship-shape! Dublin is a machine. I know his Dad Afleet Alex will be watching if he can get near a T.V. set!!!! Go Dublin, see you at the Derby.

I love Buddy's Saint, but I know a lot of that is sentiment that Saint Liam gets a "big horse" to carry on his name...still choke up over him, such a good horse ( u2 Lawyer)

I liked Jackson Bend right from the start...can the little horse make it big?

I just have to ask one thing not TC related, if Jason will let me ;-), and ask anyone here on the blog who has seen her this spring in real life, how good does Rachel look? In the photos she looks mind-boggling!!!

sounds like his name is ice box to me lol! Ron the greek is overrated and wont be able to close like he did last time. If he wins again I will become a believer. He does have stamina I just dont see the killer closing ability everyone else sees.

forget the exotics, put a large win bet on buddy's saint. b.s. goes "meep, meep" rounding the far turn and wins by three.

Fountain of Youth:  I`m happy to see Johnny V on Esken... instead of Aikenite who gets reunited with Garcia.  Aikenite was sent towards the fron in his last while previously coming from off the pace.  I think he gets taken back at the break and mows `em down in the stretch.  Agree Buddy`s Saint may be better later on than Saturday due to the layoff.

Southwest: I like Cool Bullet who stalked in the Lecomte, loomed at mid stretch and then sorta ran on evenly.  The same tactics at oaklawn may produce a victory with the short stretch.

Hutcheson:  A Little Warm

Risen Star:  Ron the Greek will be running fast in mid track during the stretch which is how all of his races have been run.  Whether he gets up or not depends on early pace which he obviously needs.  If someone gets an early jump on him it would likely be either Drosselmeyer or Stay Put.

As much as I love Jackson Bend, I believe it will be Buddy's Saint's race...to win or lose.  The Risen Star...I'm sticking with Ron the Greek, and expect Hotep in the money.  Southwest...Maybe Dublin and Pleasant Storm.

All right guys finally get some love for pleasant storm. Pleasant storm is awesome and will be in the money for sure. I also think that dryfly is better than advertised and think its a huge advantage to have c. borel back in the saddle!

Is it true: short stretch at Oaklawn?

To Rachel:

You're absolutely right Rachel A. looks gorgeous and fit. Her eyes are bigger than saucers when they look at you they seem to say "Hi There!" and she is just one gorgeous racehorse. Even her coloring is shinier than shiney. I expcct to see her in a "Got Milk" commercial any day now!!

Jason - Do you know if the Bloodhorse site will be "hosting" Pursuit of the Crown this year?  Thanks!

Kat: Im not 100% sure. They are done by HRTV and I'm not sure if we have a deal worked out with them. I'll try to find out.

Great weekend of racing particularly on Saturday, although it will be a little quiet here in SoCal.  The Palos Verdes drew a good field but the gr.2 San Luis Obispo should have its graded status revoked for the poor field it drew.

I already wrote at length on the Southwest last week and will stick with my selection.  I think the pace will be legit and will set up the late run of Pleasant Storm, who is coming off a solid 2nd place finish in the Smarty Jones there at Oaklawn.  I think the Cali shippers will be right in contention, with Cardiff Giant and Domonation both being game little horses.  Conveyance is the more gifted of the trio, but I think the quicker fractions he'll be facing on dirt will soften him up just enough for Pleasant Storm's charge.  I respect Dublin as a gr.1 winner and certainly respect his trainer D. Wayne Lukas, the most dominant trainer of my lifetime thus far, but the son of Afleet Alex hasn't run a good race in almost half a year and maybe, just maybe might need a race. He will be conceding alot in terms of sharpness(recent races) and productive 2-turn experience.  Fair Grounds shipper Cool Bullet adds further intrigue to a quality field.

As for the Fountain of Youth, I agree with Jason on 2 points. 1) It is the toughest Derby prep so far, and 2) I like Jackson Bend to win.  Jackson Bend is a known commodity; he has tactical speed, he's as tough as nails, he ran a fantastic 2nd over the track in the recent Holy Bull, and I think 9 furlongs is just within his distance range.  

I definitely respect Buddy's Saint, and of all the horses in the FoY I am most eager to see him run.  His Nashua Stakes victory suggested he could be a potential star, but his Remsen win was more workmanlike than brilliant.  Then, there is the previously discussed issue of promising 2 year olds transferring their Aqueduct form to other tracks.  

Frankly, recent winners of the Remsen have been been somehwat disappointing in the Triple Crown.  2005 Remsen winner, Bluegrass Cat, faired the best, running 2nd in the Derby and Belmont, but even he lost his major Derby preps(2nd Tampa Derby, 4th Blue Grass).  Nobiz Like Showbiz followed his Remsen win with a victory in the 2007 Holy Bull, a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, and then a win in the Wood.  However, he ran poorly in the Derby and was eventually switched to grass.  Read the Footnotes won the Remsen and then  captured the 2004 Fountain of Youth with a huge Beyer to vault to the head of the Derby picture.  Unfortunately, the FoY knocked him out of the Triple Crown.  Foxhill Farms colts Rockport Harbor and Old Fashioned were also top Derby candidates following impressive wins in the Remsen, but both lost preps at Oaklawn before being sidelined with injury.  In 2007, Court Vision's win in the Remsen vaulted him into the Derby picture, but he proved to be a disappointment in major dirt races and ultimately was transformed into a multiple gr.1 winning turfer.  2002 Remsen winner Toccet was the winter book 2nd choice for the Derby but he suffered with injury and never completed his development trajectory.  Finally, the extrememly well bred 2001 Remsen winner, Saarland, looked like a major Derby candidate for the Phipps Stable and Shug McGaughey, but he really didn't fulfill this potential until age 4, when he won the gr.1 Met Mile.

Common to almost all of these recent Remsen winners is that they won the race impressively; it seems that just about every year the late two year old stakes at Aueduct(Nashua/Remsen) produce runaway winners that are then placed near the top of the Derby pile.  And while many of the recent Remsen winners have proven themselves to be good horses, only one, Bluegrass Cat, did much of anything in the Triple Crown.  Is Buddy's Saint destined to follow in their footsteps?  No, but this recent history does make one a tad skeptical of a horse that romped in the Remsen.

As for other FoY contenders, I'm most interested in seeing Eskanderya.  It is clear he has some talent and excellent breeding, but he needs to prove himself at the stakes level.  The last part is true for much of the FoY field.  There will be alot of potential in the starting gate, but the subsequent minute and 43 seconds will show us which ones are on their way to fulfilling that potential.

As for the Risen Star, I just am not familiar enough with most of the field to properly handicap the race.  Obviously, I will be interested to see if Ron the Greek can reproduce his LeComte victory.  

In addition to the Derby preps there are other races that I am keen to see.  With Jason hyping her up, I am now very interested to see Devil May Care in the Silverbulletday.  Then, there is Friesan Fire vs. General Quarters(and maybe Giant Oak) in the Mineshaft Cap' at the Fair Grounds, BC Mile runner-up Courageous Cat in the Canadian Turf, and dual Eclipse winner Gio Ponti in the Tampa Bay Stakes.  Out here in Cali, the Palos Verdes brings out two grade 1 winners, BC Sprint champ Dancing in Silks and 2008 Malibu winner Bob Black Jack.  Later Saturday night in quarter horse action at Los Alamitos, the incredibly fast defending World Champion, Freaky, tries to add another gr.1 in the Los Al Winter Championship.

Zookeeper,

     I don't know, But, The stretch at Oaklawn sure doesn't look short to me...

Take a look for yourself:

www.youtube.com/watch

Hey Fran, thanks...when I saw a photo of one of her first works, even with her winter coat she looked incredible..lucky you!!!

Make up your own mind on the stretch:

Churchill Downs:Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,234.5 Feet.

Pimlico:Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,152 Feet

Oaklawn Park:Distance from last turn to finish line:1,155 feet.

Drf.com and several other sites have graphs, specs and distances of each track.

Oh and the same stat on the track that everyone thinks is so big with big sweeping turns? Belmont:

1097 ft from last turn to finish line.

Greg J.,

Thanks. I guess it's just the right length. :)

Radiohead  may scratch  per  Dutrow

Conveyance in the Southwest.  Look for the "Holy Bull" speed to increase on dirt and he can clear from post nine.  He will remain undefeated.

RACHEL

MY GOD,you always bring RA into every blog,even when it's not related,like now. Maybe you could get a job working for the connections,so you could be around her!

I like Jackson Bend and I think he can go long in May.

Jason,

 I'm still on Eskendereya's bandwagon and I'm not getting off. As far as tomorrow goes I'm looking at Pulsion and Jackson to both run really well, they are both cranked and ready to run. Not sure how I'm gonna wager yet. Buddy's Saint is a play against for me, and I hope he takes a ton of money. Asking alot for his first race off layoff.

 I'm with you as far as Drosselmeyer in the RS. I might box him with Tempted to Tapit. I'll look harder at Letsgetiton and see if he should be in the mix like you think. Ron the Greek gets exposed in this race as far as I'm concerned. Don't think he will be in the money.

 The Southwest is a tough race to handicap for me. If Dublin is all that Lukas thinks he is, then he should win for fun. I have seen horses have the same surgery and they really improved. I've also seen them run just like they did before the surgery so I think I might just watch. I think a horse that might run big at a price is Cool Bullet. I think all the California invaders are pretenders.

To All,

 Can we please stop with all the RA and Z talk. This is TRIPLE CROWN TALK and neither Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta are running in any races that have anything to do with the Triple Crown. By now everyone knows who thinks what on this subject and the degrading of one horse to try and make the other seem better is getting really old.

I can't bet against my baby boy: Dublin all the way in the Southwest!

Alex will be proud!

Tim G,

Thanks for the info. I'll look it up. I guess that Belmont with its  big sweeping turn creates an optical and psychological illusion. Especially during the Belmont Stakes...it seems like the finish line never comes if the horse you support is leading.

I hope Radiohead stays in the Hutcheson because he will have a fast pace to close into. D'Funnybone, Wildcat Frankie, and A Little Warm all have speed. Stalking speed has been lights out at Gulfstream this year. For this same reason I see Buddy's Saint making his own race and closing into a fast pace.

Conveyance can win if he sets a steady pace.

As for the older horses, I am going with Gio Ponti, Friesan Fire, and Bob Black Jack on top. Although none of them will be good win bets, they will be best to key in exactas or doubles.

I've really loved Dublin since last year, but don't think all the jockey changes have done him any favors.  A different rider each time he's raced..?  Doesn't make sense.  So, I wish Dublin all the best and hope his e-surgery was totally successful; but am not particularly encouraged by the connections' decisions.  Put Jamie Theriot back on him and we'll talk.

The horse I most want to see run in the SW is Pleasant Storm.  I like his breeding a lot, especially that Kris S is his second dam's sire.  Just judging from what I can see in the race videos - not finding any closeups - he has a look of Kris S (as does Zenyatta, whose damsire is KS).  Seems he has exceptional size as well.  If not necessarily a Derby horse, he has huge potential at 4-5-6 as he grows into himself, provided he has a good caretaker in the mode of John S.  He's also a deep closer type, but that's to be expected of a horse 17+ hands.  Takes a while to reach full stride for the big'uns.  That could be a plus for him in the TC, but we'll see soon enough.

I'm fond of Eskenderaya for reasons I haven't fully analyzed - could just be the delightful name; and Ron the Greek has the closing style I love best.  

What I MOST look forward to is seeing how Caracortado runs vs L@L.  That will be a telling.

In reality, I've grown so fond of all these young runners that I will rejoice for the winners and be sad for the rest.  They all seem so deserving...

oh, and Jason - off topic - thank you for the nice little piece you wrote on Mine That Bird's return.  I appreciated it especially after your rather unkind comments about him.  Perhaps you didn't realize that he still has fans, like me, who are still proud of what he accomplished in the '09 TC.  Whatever, at least you wrote about him and that's a gift to those of us who still care.  We've had so little news of him since the BCC.

So, thanks.

(This is completely off the subject, so skip over this if you don't want to read a horse lover story.)

Sherpa,

You mention Kris S. in your post and I thought you might appreciate this: When I visited WinStar farm in 2005, Larry (one of the men who handle the stallions) showed me where Kris' paddock had been and he shared with me how much that horse had meant to him. He had tears in his eyes when he recounted (with great pride) how magnificent he was, how dominant he acted towards other stallions but also how they (Kris & Larry) had formed a relationship based on mutual respect. When the time came to  put him down, Larry couldn't bear to be there. Another handler did and relayed to him how when the great Kris S. went down, the handler held his head so it would not hit the ground. By then tears were streaming down his face. We stood there quietly, as he regained his composure. "They didn't let his head hit the ground", he said. That fact was very important to Larry, he loved that stallion so  much.

I don't know why he told me all this. Maybe he could relate to how I felt when in Tiznow's presence whom I was there to visit. Maybe he thought I would understand... I did.

Ice (I suh) Box?  Who named him, Lou Holtz?  I hope he gets trounced just so I never have to pronounce his name.

buddys saint should be extremely tough

I love this weekend. Here are my picks for Sunday:

Hutcheson: D'Funnybone/A little warm exacta box

FOY: Eskendereya/Jackson Bend box

Risen Star: Drosselmeyer/Stay Put exacta box

Southwest:Dublin/Dryfly exacta box

El Camino: Just go with Connemara to win.

Jason,

I am surprised to see Hear Ye Hear Ye morning line at 8-1. It will probaby be twice that at post time. If Jackson Bend is a serious contender to win the FOY, Hear Ye Hear Ye must have an outstanding in the Hutcheson.

I just have to ask one thing not TC related, if Jason will let me ;-), and ask anyone here on the blog who has seen her this spring in real life, how good does Zenyatta look? In the photos she looks mind-boggling!!!

zookeeper -

thank you for relating that story about Kris S and his handler.  I think I understand why the handler would tell you about him...just by reading your comments here, I know you have a true gift for listening.

Hope you have a lovely day with your birthday friend!

It's funny to me how every horse by Afleet Alex is so special and somebodys baby. Yet people some times do not understand how others have a strong connection with Barbaro. Thank you Zookeeper for your story on Kris S. It makes me happy to hear others talking about their love for the equine athlete.

Bruce Levine just finished a phone interview with the local OTB in Albany,NY. He said that he expected Buddy's Saint to regress after the Nashua. But in his mind the horse moved forward after handling 2 turns, settling in nicely, and winning easily after only 3 weeks rest. His horse has been working effortlessly and can win today.

Risen Star: Discreetly Mine, Stay Put, and RtG.

FoY: Buddy's Saint, Jackson Bend, and Positive Split

Southwest: Dublin, Dryfly, and Mission Impazible

Hutcheson: D'Funnybone, A Little Warm, and Ibboyee

The Hutch is not really a Derby prep, but I do like A Little Warm in there....also like Eskendereya in the Fountain Of Youth...will try to hit one outta the park with Northern Giant in the Risen Star--D Wayne, improving...have seen this movie before....note he was on a fairly decent pace (for the track variant), and he drew off like a nice one and got a good beyer....Oaklawn is perplexing, as that track seems to vary week by week...but Dryfly ran a 28 sec last 1/4 and still won on the lead, so I think he's legit--he won a race that he should have lost, so I like him right back...

Jason, I enjoyed your That Handicapping Show.  I think Tempted to Tapit to place is the bet of the day.  Congratulations on winning the ugly sweater contest too.  My great-grandmother got me one just like it in 1974.

Considering the weather we've been having, it's a little tough to get Kentucky Derby fever. However, we'll take a look at a few early preps for the Derby going today at various venues.

Fairgrounds, Race 10 - (5) Random Move, 50-1. Michelle Luvell claimed this one off 50k mdn. win. An ambitious move to G2 Risen Star, but that's why they call them long shots. Running style suggests 3YO will have a shot at this race late. Bet Random W-P-S and in exacta box with all. In trifecta box with (2) Tempted To Tapit, 8-1, (11) Ron The Greek, 3-1 and (12) Hotep, 12-1. In the superfecta, add the (3) Mountain Justice, 20-1, to the box.

Golden Gate Fields, Race 8 - (1) Haimish Hy, 15-1. One of two Steve Sherman trainees in the El Camino Real Derby. We're taking H-squared over the other Double-S entry, (5) Fog Alert, 12-1. We'll box them in the exacta, along with (3) Posse Power, 8-1, and (8) Connemara, 2-1, a pair of Slant Liners. Use those four in the triple and superfecta boxes.

Yes, we have not recommended (7) Ranger Heartley, 5-2, who has seen nothing but fresh air in winning his last two races wire-to-wire. Feel free to include him if you like him.

Gulfstream Park, Race 8 - (4) Sum Champ, 20-1. We cannot tell a lie. We actually like (8) A Little Warm in here. But, at 3-1, he doesn't meet the requirement of 5-1 or higher on the ML. So, we'll bet the 4 across the board (2x the win bet to place and 5x the win bet to show) and box him in exacta, triple and superfecta with (1) Radiohead, 5-1, (3) Ibboyee, 12-1, and (8).

Gulfstream Park, Race 10 - (6) Prince Will I Am, 30-1. When horses go off at 45-, 48-and 42-1 in their first three starts, they are not highly thought of. When they have a win and place finish in those starts they catch our attention. So, it's Prince Will for us in the G2 Fountain of Youth today, W-P-S and in exacta box with all. Plus box the Prince with (1) 1 Aikenite, 6-1, (2) Buddy's Saint, 3-1, (9) Lost Aptitude, 10-1, and (10) Ice Box, 10-1, in triple and superfecta.

Lol Ted. You dont know style.

As you know, I touted Tempted to Tapit last month. He obviously has a lot of speed. I just want to take a wait-and-see approach with him for his first stakes. Drosselmeyer is my play. I played Devil May Care-All-Drosselmeyer in a pick 3.

In the Southwest I will go with a California exacta box of Conveyance and Cardiff Giant.

The key is Tapit was my Derby horse, and my Derby horses always have great careers (starting right after the Derby) on the track and in the breeding shed.  

Jason, I know you're high on Devil May Care.  Bet big, but hold a few bucks back for your wardrobe.  After seeing that show, I'm worried about you.  

Ted: You have the benefit of seeing me, but we cant see you. We'll just have to imagine what you look like, but somehow I picture you as one of those bald-headed, bandana-wearing, beer-bellied, scraggly bearded, middle-aged guys who is single and hasnt met the acquaintence of the opposite sex in about a decade. I nailed it, didnt I? C'mon dude, admit it...

You know what they say, Ted, if you can remember it the first time, you're too old to wear it the second time!

JASON

That's funny! I'm convinced you could do stand up. BTW,what's your opinion of Jackson Bends' second place finish today?

Wow! what a performance by eskenderya, sorry to see Buddy get a rough trip but thats racing. Conveyance set very tough fractions on a track where you never see horses go that fast early and hang on. He learns to rate just a little bit he will be a handful to handle down the road.

All I can say is "WOW",

We have some mighty fine young'ens coming up for the derby trail this year.

These are some mighty fantastic colts.

marktoothaker,

 Actually speed was holding very well today at Oaklawn. Watched the earlier races and it got me off Dublin.

Jason,

 I don't think I'll jump of Eskendereya's bandwagon just yet. Had him for twenty across the board today. At 22-1 my future bet looks better and better, but I do know that it is a longwaytomay!!

Pretty close Jason, but I am married.  I met my wife when I worked for the Jerry Springer Show.  I helped tear down her basement wall so the crane could remove her.  She has a great personality.  Again, I made one bet today, Tempted to Tapit to place (as I mentioned above), and again, I won.  Are you taking notes sweater boy?

Well, look at that. A horse who raced exclusively on synthetic wins a graded race at Oaklawn on dirt. Can we put this debate to bed already on whether if horses can transfer their synthetic form to dirt?

discreetly mine look great in the post parade plus castellano probably knows the horse better then pletcher.for some reason i had a funny feeling  northern giant would run well in the risen star. i might take next out. dublin seem impressive to along with conveyance. eskendereya probably just likes gulfstream but that was some performance. budd'y saint i had a feeling he wouldn't run well but that's why hes undefeated in NY lol on to the wood.

Buddy's Saint was bounced around like a ping pong ball, poor horse. I'm happy that I at leat called all three in the Hutcheson, and Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star. IMO, Dublin was the best horse in the Southwest and the best three year old of the weekend. That bid he sustained was nothing short of spectacular, and to think he did that off a layoff. Give him a little more time and he would've won. He will relish that Derby stretch come the first Sat in May.

Eskendereya looked great. Nice job Longway. Let's see if he can do it away from Gulf. Jackson Bend ran well, but I think that's as far as he wants to go.

Drosselmeyer was a disappointment, though the pace probably compromised him. Rock: We all know horses can win from synthetics to their first start on dirt; they just cant do it in the Derby. Conveyance will certainly be a pace factor come May 1.

Dublin ran a nice race. Was too far back and too wide. Get Theriot back on him Wayne. Good race for his first start back. Discreetly Mine got away with an easy pace and lead. I dont consider him a serious Derby threat at this point.

Ted: Well, I didnt have the unmarried part right, but I guess all the others were right on. I told you Im a good handicapper. Thanks for confirming that. Nice job on Tapit.

You're welcome, Jason.  Thanks for confirming that I schooled you again at handicapping today.  Get a note pad for next weekend, put on your best sweater from 1981, and pay close attention.  LDP, good job today.

Teddy Boy: Who brought Temped to Tapit to your attention two weeks ago? All you did was jump on my wagon. Anyway, you already have your Derby winner Caracortado. Good luck with that. BTW, thanks for bringing high quality television to our nation for all those years with Jerry Springer. The youth of American thanks you.

Oh my! What a race by Eskendereya. Can't wait til May 1. Jody Slew's race was fun too.

Jason,

 Believe it or not but I would like to see him run somewhere other than Gulfstream myself. It will never happen after today. I wanted him to get off the asphalt but I have to say I don't think the track was too hard today. I'm afraid it will be for the Florida Derby though. I hope I'm wrong. I am afraid you are correct in your analysis of Jackson Bend. Nice horse but not a Derby distance horse. He ran his guts out today. Don't know what to think about Buddys Saint. He was a play against for me today but with the start he had it is impossible to say if he is a contender or not.

 I watched the early races at Oaklawn today and speed was holding really well. I think Dublin ran a hell of a race considering the track bias and the layoff. I think the Arkansas Derby will be his for the taking.

 Connemara is a nice horse but I think he is too slow to be a major force in the Derby. Nice win today though.

I was really impressed with Dublin.  After his two crappy races in the fall I wrote him off, but I guess the surgery was what he needed.  

Of all the winners today, Eskendreya was the one who reminded me of what a couple people said on the Todd Pletcher blog a while back:  His horses run so well in the preps, they "peak" then and don't peak later in the Derby.  It's what I was thinking while Esk. was demolishing the field.

Why was Radiohead scratched from the Hutcheson?

Eskendereya, looked great today, but there doesn't look to be anyone in that race besides him that should stay on the Derby trail, but I will give Buddy's Saint the benefit of the doubt. Is Eskendereya a potential star this year, or was he really beating anything here?

Dublin looked good running second and should improve off the race , Conveyance stole this one impressively, but I need to see him rate before I would call him a Derby player, doubting he can hold on for a mile and a quarter.

Risen Star , I think you can eliminate all as Derby contenders, too slow.

Connemara, certainly looked good, should keep him on Derby watch.

Hope it was no one here who was unloading on Friesan Fire to show today...ouch!

Except for Eskendereya, still waiting for the stars to shine.

Radiohead was scratched because dutrow didn't like the rail. he said on hrtv he was most likely to scratch out.

Jason, I am a fictional character.  I did bet Tempted to Tapit, but not because of you.  It was his sire that drew me to him.  And I was also savvy enough to bet him to place (not win).  If I recall, you didn't have confidence to bet him in a stakes race until he proved himself.  That is what separates the men (me) from the boys (you) in this game.  I will take 3-1 on a place bet every chance I get.  My name is not Ted and I am not from LA.  I will come clean on one issue.  I didn't work for the Jerry Springer Show.  I do like Caracortado, but I am not married to him yet either.  If he stays healthy, I will be all over him in the Triple Crown races.  I have to end this before Gunbow starts criticizing this post for not being germane to the subject at hand or for being too wordy.  If Caracortado races Lookin' at Lucky in March, I am going to take the college fund we have for our 10 kids and place it on Scarface to win.

What a full day of eciting racing...I think I'm cross-eyed by now.  I'm not ready to toss out Ron the Greek yet...I still have hope for him, but Eskendereya, Conveyance and Dublin ruled this weekend.  Buddy's Saint had a terrible ride, and he's still in for me.  Jackson Bend was game but the race may have been too big for him. (His saddle cloth certainly was).

Looks like Dublin had a great prep, and since the pressure is off re: graded earnings, Lukas has every option in front of him to get ready for May 1.  Eskendereya looked awfully good, can't wait to see his next race.

I thought Eskendereya was impressive today, as was Dublin and Conveyance. Poor Buddy's Saint, what a trip! Still sticking with Lookin At Lucky as my Derby horse though.  Jason, it's off the subject I know, but do you know if Friesan Fire is okay?  He was running well then all of the sudden lost it and he looked really awkward coming down the last part of the stretch...?  Worried me that he may have been injured!

What happened to Devil may care, jason?  She cost me the pick 4.

I was impressed with Discreetly Mine. Yes his time was slow, but when you look back at the Mineshaft and Sliverbulletday you have two very slow final times yet again. The Mineshaft was run in 1.44.09 and the Silverbulletday was run in 1.45.80. The final time for the Risen Star was 1.44.88. Also notice that both races of the other races were won by horses not on the pace. Quiet Temper almost got the job done, but in the end Jody Slew crossed the wire first. Stonehouse wasn't up pushing GQ or FF, he sat back then pounce. Out of the three races it was Discreetly Mine who withstood the length of that stretch. In the final sixteenth Discreetly Mine did very well too. The final sixteenth for the Mineshaft was 6.69. Since Jody Slew was about three lengths off the lead at the sixteenth pole you have to bump her mile time up to 1.38.84, with that as a mile time, her final sixteenth was run in 7.04. Discreetly Mine ran his in 6.71, just .02 seconds off of Stonehouse's final sixteenth.

Jason,

I know Mr. Pletcher is your man and you must have been very pleased with his three prep wins on 02/20/2010. It is safe to assume that both you and the majority of your supporters have at least five of his colt in the top 10. To be fair they probably belong there. However, we have seen this script and movie before with the only difference being the players.

Cast you mind back to 2007. Mr. Pletcher’s stable accounted for 20% of the final derby field of 20 colts. The five colts and a their respective derby prep resumes are listed below:

Circular Quay - won the Louisiana Derby (finished 5th)

Any Given Saturday - won the Sam Davis, 2nd Tampa Bay Derby & 3rd Wood Memorial (finished 8th)

Sam P - 2nd Robert B. Lewis S.  & 3rd Santa Anita Derby (finished 9th)

Scat Daddy - Won Florida Derby, Fountain Of Youth S; 3rd Holy Bull S. (finished 19th)

Cowtown Cat - Won Illinois Derby, Gotham S; 3rd Swale S. (finished 20th)

Mr. Pletcher entered the 2007 Derby with 5 colts that combined for six derby preps victories and six top three placing in others preps. He exited the derby with a best finish of 5th. Scat Daddy and Cowtown Cat the multiple prep winners, finished 19th and 20th respectively. Cowntown Cat’s last place finish in the 2007 Derby represented the middle leg of what eventually turned out to be a unique triple for multiple eclipse awards winning trainer. The last place finishers in the 2006 & 2008 Derbies Keyed Entry and Monba were both conditioned by Mr. Pletcher. It is hard to imagine that entrants from one of the most powerful stable in the US have finished last in three consecutive derbies. The 2007 results for Mr. Pletcher is a classic case of when more equates to less.

Is Mr. Pletcher’s 2010 crop of 3YOs better than his 2007? I cannot say but they seem to be achieving some of the same results and more. Rule won the Sam Davis and Eskendereya the FOY. Connemara and Discreetly Mine have added the Risen Star & the EL CAMINO REAL DERBY. With several derbies preps to come it appears the 2010 crop will eclipse the achievements of the 2007 crop. Could Mr. Plecther be going into the 2010 Derby with even a stronger hand? It appears that way. Will he exit with better than a 5th place finish? There is a possibility he will exist with better than 5th place finish but his resume will still be void of a derby victory.

I hope I am wrong with my prediction as I really like Connemara. When this colt came to my attention, I observed that his dam (Satin Sunrise) had made 78 starts and was also the dam of Derby runner up Lion Heart. It became apparent to me that Satin Sunrise could go one better than Never Knock who produced 1990 Derby third place finisher Pleasant Tap and followed with the 1994 winner Go For Gin. It appears Connemara will run all day and has what I consider to be the best broodmare line of the Todd Squad.

Mr. Pletcher’s lack of success in the Derby is similar to that of some of the sires and broodmare sires associated with some of his top prospects. Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya and Connemara were sired by Sons on Strom Cat/ A P Indy. Their combined 150 plus sons at stud are yet to sire a derby winner in the US.  Rule’ dam sire goes back to Damascus who is nonexistent on the derby char. Super Saver dam by A P Indy who has never been associated with a dam of the winner of a TC race.  A victory for any of those colts will represent a break through sire dam sire and trainer.

I would really like Mr. Pletcher to win the Derby so I can stop eliminating his horse from the top spot. I refuse to believe there is some Derby curse place on him. However, if it’s not curse, what is the cause of his elusive Derby victory? If jokingly classify the trainers that have achieved derby victory as men and those that have not as boys. When will Todd separate himself from the boy? He runs too of good an operation not to.

Eskendereya ran a great race yesterday, but I am not sold on him just yet. I hope they ship Buddy's Saint out of Florida this week and train up to the Wood Memeorial. Lezcano had an open rail in front of him and Garcia came over fast with Aikenite and smashed his way to the rail.

Watching the Southwest I noticed Dublin flying late, it also looked like Conveyance had more in the tank. He reminds me of Holy Bull and I hope he moves forward and continues to be a front end threat.

Was anyone else impressed by Bob Black Jack at Santa Anita? This horse came back from an almost 14 month layoff and ran a very controlled fast race. Please racing gods, keep this monster safe and sound! He is already at the top of my list of sprinters. On to Dubai?

Dave: Devil May care was unsettled in the gate, had a wide trip around the first turn and was rushed up into the second turn. I knew she was done before they made the turn. Not sure what her problem was. The rider said she didnt like the track. Who knows. She cost me too.

Ted from LA I am laughing my head off! You should be writing comedy for Leno or Letterman, or maybe Conan O'Brien when he comes back.

Felt very bad for Buddy's Saint also. He had no chance because he was just boxed in.

I think Eskendereya is the a very good horse. Was hoping Dublin would do better.

This 1st weekend of major Derby preps unfolded like many prep days in the past.  Speed dominated, and now the list of Derby contenders is top-heavy with fast horses possessing possible distance limitations.  Is there any wonder why so many runnings of the Derby have brutal early paces?  

As for Pletcher, his problems in the Derby are also related to speed dominating the preps.  Typically, Pletcher is given(or helps select) the best atheletes of any sale(learned this from Lukas).  Often, these "best athelete" types are precocious and/or have excellent early speed.  With this speed, these horses go on to run well at 2 and in the Derby preps. However, when they all meet in the Derby, they knock each other off up front, and Pletcher is left without a Derby win(I know he hasn't had just frontrunners).  Look at Pletcher this year.  Rule, Eskandereya, Discretely Mine, and Super Saver are all frontrunners, and the former 3 all won their prep races over the last week wire to wire.

Of the horses that ran this weekend, Eskandereya was most impressive, but the quality of the Fountain of Youth now looks suspect.  As I wrote before the race, the FoY was full of potential but not proven stakes form.  Eskandereya obviously lived up to his potential, but no one else really did.  

I was wrong about Jackson Bend; 9 furlongs is simply not within his range at this point in his career.  He tried very hard, but that only made his distance limitations more apparent.  He had no excuses and offered little resistance in the stretch.  Big Drama anyone?  Zito would be prudent to find races up to 8.5 furlongs and raid the countless gr.2 and 3 Derbies around the country.

I didn't see much Derby material behind Jackson Bend.  Obviously, Buddy's Saint deserves another chance, but it is a little disconcerting that he showed no fight after encountering the trouble on the 1st turn.

The Southwest unfolded almost exactly like the San Rafael, except Dublin was there to get between Conveyance and Cardiff Giant at the wire.  As in the San Rafael, Conveyance controlled the pace and then had to fend off a strong challenge from the underrated and hard-trying Cardiff Giant.  

I have to admit, I underestimated Conveyance's heart.  I knew he had talent by the mere fact he was able to go wire to wire around 2 turns on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride.  And I knew he had speed because he demonstrated it at Hollywood Park.  However, I thought the pace he would meet on dirt would be a tad bit too fast and soften him up.  And the pace did soften him up, as it should have.  

Of all the Derby preps this weekend, Conveyance set by far the fastest pace, with a 6 furlong split of 1:10 and 3 that was almost 2 seconds faster than Eskandereya's FoY 6 furlong split and almost 3 seconds faster than Discreetly Mine's Risen Star pace.  Yes, the Southwest was the shortest of these preps, but if the question about horses coming from Santa Anita is whether they have enough speed to compete with dirt horses, Conveyance definitely demonstrated that he, for one, has an abundance of speed.  The fact he was able to fend off so many challengers through such demanding fractions and still hold off the gr.1 winning Dublin, speaks to Conveyance's talent and heart.

Having given Conveyance his just due, I wouldn't disagree with someone who rated Dublin the best Derby prospect coming out of the Southwest. Given Dublin had not run a prodcutive race since winning the Hopeful, this was a very encouraging start to his 3 year old campaign.  Although his late run was aided by the fast early pace that fried most of the frontrunners, Dublin still had to overcome a wide trip and a track that was playing moderately towards speed.  While I respect Conveynace's talent, I have serious reservations about his ability at a classic distance.  Dublin, however, has more of a classic look.

I'm not sure what to make of the Risen Star. The early pace was extremely slow and better resembled a synthetic race.  If one remembers, there were questions last year about the slow paces Friesan Fire was pushing at the Fairgrounds and ultimately those questions proved legit.  

In mid-stretch, Tempted to Tapit, Northern Giant, and Drosselmeyer looked done, yet they actually made ground on Discretely Mine late.  Discretely Mine clearly has talent, but he could not have set a slower pace, and I didn't like how he was swerving deep in the stretch.  Usually when a horse swerves like that, it means he is very tired.

As for Ron the Greek, he did show himself to be another Win Willy.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, because if given a fast pace stretch runners like Ron and Willy can win some good races.  But, they are absolutely dependent on a fast pace, and do not have the brilliance to make their own race if they encounter a slow pace.  I wouldn't abandon Ron if you liked him before the Risen Star; just recongnize that he needs alot to go his way in order to win.  Yet, so did Mine That Bird.

In non-prep races, Courageous Cat looked good gamely winning a fast Canadian Turf Cap'.  However, I was shocked to see it was Cherokee Artist that pushed him; Cherokee Artist had been soundly defeated out here in the San Gabriel on turf and San Pasqual on Pro-Ride.  I was definitely a little disappointed to see Gio Ponti lose, but Karelian is a quality horse.  The T.B Stakes was never meant to be anything more than a prep for Gio.

Yes, Forbidden Apple, I did take note of Bob Black Jack's win in the gr.2 San Carlos.  I actually was on track and was very impressed by Bob.  When healthy, he has proven himself the best synthetic male sprinter over the last couple of years.  Bob was just toying with some really good horses.  By the way, I've never seen a horse that flicks his ears around like Bob.  One ear will be pointed straight up but the other will be off twitching to the side.  It really gives him the look of some equine comedian, with his walker having to pat down the ear that is flickering around.

In quarter horse news, the great Freaky dominated another gr.1 while winning the $200k + Los Al Winter Championship by over a length.  Although Freaky's time was 9/100ths off his own track record, he easily set the stakes record.  The white faced asassin will now be given a rest and geared up for the fall/winter.  

Bourbon Bay really spurted free in the stretch today at Santa Anita--rain had softened the course and he really looked good--Mr Drysdale has a Breeders Cup Turf horse, one who will relish Churchill Downs in late Fall.....

Thank you, Paula.  It beats being called a horses patoot by you (I have the memory of an elephant).  Of the three you mention, I would only work for Conan.  Make it happen and I will share my salary with you.  I am already loving this Triple Crown season.  I just need to hit with another Win Willy type prep race like I did last year.  He more than paid for my entire Triple Crown season last year (and my liposuction and vasectomy surgeries).  March 13 will be my day.  I will be in Vegas staying at the Lucky Lady with my 900 pound wife and my 2 pound dog and betting Caracortado over Lookin' at Lucky at every casino that still allows me in their doors... both of them.    

What a day for Pletcher--go ahead and make Eskendereya the Derby Fave, he looks like any kind--his horse at Golden Gate, while beating up on a suspect field, did it the right way, got the 1 1/8 and then some---also thought D Wayne had a nice day, 2nd at Oaklawn with Dublin in a nice prep, 3rd at Fairgrounds with 54-1 Northern Giant, whom I bet across the board (I also had Eskendereya at 7-2, will have to wait for the Derby to get that kind of price on him again!)...and I know this is about 3yolds, BUT---there's been a Bob Black Jack sighting at Santa Anita--7fur on pro-ride, over a year layoff--that's huge! Along with Eskendereya at Gulfstream, and Freaky the Quarter Horse at Los Alamitos, Bob Black Jack's was the third big-time performance of the day!

GunBow, how does Bob Black respond to the noise of the crowd? He looks very relaxed and professional to me. Did he look at all tired after the race? If he comes out of the race healthy, it seems that his connections must be considering the straight 6f course of Meydan in Dubai.

I had the same feelings about Conveyance, he looked controlled and professional even though he tired some at the end. But 1:10 and change cooked Cigar when he was defeated and Conveyance continued on strong. He looks like a formidable speed threat to match any horse in the Pletcher regime. There is still plenty of time for any horse to improve and turn into a KY Derby threat.

I had somewhat written off the San Luis Obsipo, but I am actually glad that I made it to Santa Anita today.  Bourbon Bay won the Obsipo impressively by over 4 lengths with a brilliant last quarter in :23 and 2.  For a 12 furlong race, such a closing quarter is quite strong.  The pace, though, was very slow but the track was on the soft side after light rain the last few days.

Boubon Bay is a needed new face on the SoCal marathon turf scene.  For a division that is much weaker than it was 15-20 years ago, every good horse is desperately needed.  Bourbon Bay was precocious enough to run 2nd in the Cradle Stakes at 2 and seems to have found his speciality running 12 furlongs and longer.  Bourbon Bay has excellent tactical speed, so slow paces which affect most distance races will be no issue for him.  Trained by Neil Drysdale, a master of turf marathoners, Bourbon Bay could not be in better hands.  Right now, Bourbon Bay must be ranked up there with Julio Canani's Loup Breton and last seasons dominant runner, Midships, atop the Cali distance turf horses.

hey jason have you notices that most of the prep have been won by front runners what will happen they are all force to stalked, there going freak out and lose still believe in buddy's saint and you have to give a chance to the lookin at lucky

Forbidden Apple:  I watched the FOY over and over just to try to see what happened to Buddy.  And each time I saw, Buddy's jockey had room but went wide and bumped Aikenite first, then bounced into the rail, then the hole closed and he bumped Aikenite again, and then up against the rail.  If you ain't Borel...don't try that move again.  Thankfully, Buddy's Saint appears ok after a grueling trip, and I'm not about to count him out yet.  

Gotta love these Derby Preps. Eskendereya looked pretty good and I hit on the straight exacta 7 1/2 times. Discretly Mine was my money horse for the day but I had hoped for betten than 2.5/1 odds. The value was in the exotics and I hit the $1 super and $2 tri. Gets me off to a great start in the leadup to the Derby. I wish these preps went on for 6 months instead of 3-4. Need to see Conveyance stretch it further but he looked good at a mile anyway. Dublin's next out will tell me alot about his chances, I liked the way he finished his race.

Loved the racing this past weekend!

Eskendereya has been on my list, hope that he hasn't peaked. But this is one that has the promise of great things to come. And why are so many people ready to write off Jackson Bend? His record is 8-5-3-0; his damsire is Tabasco Cat, who won the Belmont; and his trainer is Nick Zito, who is not going to make the mistake of having him peaking now.

Boubon Bay was sensational, and sooner or later, he'll probably meet up with Cloudy's Knight (since there are so few marathons). It should be an interesting match up.

Forbidden Apple:

Bob Black Jack is a cool customer.  He flicks his ears around but he's just taking everything in; I don't think it's because of nervousness.  Honestly, he reminds me of a big pet. He is extremely observant, calm, and professional.  Compared to Roman Chic, who flipped over in the saddling area before race 6 on Sunday(she was ok), or Bourbon Bay before the San Luis Obispo(threatened to rear up when they were trying to put blinkers on), Bob Back Jack could not have been more laid back.

The San Carlos did not seem to take that much out of Bob given the way he looked after the race.  First, Bob won the race with something in the tank, after having finally broken Ventana after that horse had taken multiple runs for the lead.  Bob just kept finding more and won with his ears pricked and came back to the winners circle with his ears up, again taking everything in.  

I love the bond between Bob and his jockey, David Flores.  Flores has shared some big moments with Bob, and was up on Bob for the key works leading to this race.  Flores had to wait 14 months to ride Bob, and you could tell how appreciative he was that Bob fired such a big race first time off the bench.  Flores celebrated as they crossed the wire and then was lavish in giving Bob pets as they returned to the winners circle.  Here's what Flores said after the race: "He’s been working very well and I’ve worked him every week. We have a good connection. He’s a great horse and we’ve had some great memories."

The Bob Black Jack story is a good story all around.  The horse is owned in part by Tim Kasparoff whose brother James trains the horse.  After winning the gr.1 Malibu in December of 2008(defeating gr.1 winners Colonel John, Georgie Boy, and Into Mischief as well as gr.2 winner Nownownow), James Kasparoff detected something amiss with Bob.  Although the injury was mild, Kasparoff decided to give Bob as much time as possible to heal.  Putting a horse the quality of Bob Black Jack on the sidelines requires great discipline and patience, but Kasparoff held to his guns and the result was this brilliant return in the San Carlos.  We can only hope Bob remains healthy because he is some kind of fast.

GunBow -

Appreciate your thoughts on Bob Black Jack.

He ran an very serious race off such a long break.

(not to mention his odds were more than fair)

- Peace

If Eskendereya doesn't jump right to the top of everyone's derby list I'd be surprised.  That was a powerful performance in the FOY and over a solid field.  

I won't write off Buddy's Saint, but he showed nothing at all after the bumping incident which was a little disappointing. It could be that his jockey didn't ask for anything else, knowing the race was over for him.  Jackson Bend ran gamely for second. He's a nice little workman like horse, just not sure he will want any more distance.

Jumping up to #2 on my list will be Dublin.  Next to Eskendereya he ran the best prep. No one was going to catch Conveyance in that race, but another sixteenth and Dublin would have collared him. It was a big performance off a lay off.  I think Lukas could very well be sitting on the next Derby winner.  Don't take anything away from the Conveyance though.  I was impressed with his transition to dirt, proving that not all "California horses" are synthetic specialists. He's a good looking colt with a nice stride.

I was glad to see D'Funnybone come back to the winners circle, but I suspect he's a sprint horse, or maybe a miler.  

I wasn't thrilled with much that I saw in the Risen Star.  They gave the race to Discreetly Mine by the quarter pole. He loped uncontested through soft fractions and the race proved little.  I was most pleased by Tempted to Tapit in a solid performance first time against winners, and who would follow him across the wire but Northern Giant who I think could be another contender for Lukas.  Not sure what to think of Drosselmeyer at this point.

The biggest disappointments for me on the day, aside from Buddy's Saint, were Dry Fly and Lost Aptitude. Dry Fly was in contention then didn't fire. Lost Aptitude was on the lead in the FOY then suddenly stopped and finished last, making me wonder if he bled.

Aside from the Derby preps, it was an outstanding weekend of racing.  I was happy to see Mott's Courageous Cat came back and win after his game 2nd to Goldikova.  I had Cherokee Artist to upset him at a nice price, and that one ran well to finish 2nd. Courageous Cat looks like he is poised to be a top contender in his division.

While much is being made of Gio Ponti losing his come back by a nose, I thought he ran great and the race sets him up well for his trip to Dubai.  

Definately the feel good story of the weekend: Bob Black Jack.  A $4500 yearling purchase and 3rd generation Cal-Bred. He has a funny way of going but what a fast and game horse.  If he can stick around a little longer he'll be a fun one to watch.

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend's bounty!

What a weekend of racing: Eskendereya looked like a real contender as did, Conveyance, but if you look at a horse on the improve it's Dublin. He looked green and broke flat but did you see how he closed, he closed like a Derby horse. So put him in your top 10 right next to Dave in Dixie.

And lets stop talking about the pretenders:

Ron The Greek, Buddy's Saint, Mission Impazzible etc. Nice horses but not in the same category as Lookin At Lucky, Eskendereya and others.

I agree with everyone that has been on this blog which is a first. I think the best looking horse has to be Dublin. Remember that you dont want your horse peaking now but peaking in May. I have to say Dublin is very impressive, has the breeding the trainer and the look. I think Dublin will be my choice but dont sleep on horses that have never lost before aka conveyance and Rule. I like eskandrya but that horse might be peaking too soon.

"Conveyance in the Southwest.  Look for the Holy Bull speed to increase on dirt and he can clear from post nine.  We will remain undefeated"  (Feb 19, 2010)

Conveyance carved out some nice early fractions.  The first in a long line of synthetic to dirt demonstrations.

Runfast 159:

You are right about Bob Black Jack having a "funny way of going".  I didn't notice it watching the race live, but on the replays and the head-ons, he definitely seems to kicks his front legs up and wide.  The fact he is not the most durable horse is reflected in all the time he has missed.  As fans, all we can do is hope and pray horses like Bob remain healthy.

I must have watched a different Fountain of Youth than half the people who have given their opinions of the race. I didn't see a speed horse win, and I didn't see a front runner win. What I saw was a horse in a perfect stalking position inherit the lead when Lost Aptitude just quit running as they approached the second turn. When Jackson Bend tried to engage Eskendereya through the turn is when Johnny V. asked him to run. Eskendereya then showed me what I was looking for and that was a nice turn of foot. He swithched leads right on cue and then exploded down the stretch. Did he peak too soon? Only time will tell. Pletcher did say that he hasn't gotten to the bottom of this horse yet so we will have to wait and see. I also saw where Johnny V. said he would like him to relax just a little bit more down the backstretch but was very pleased with the way he finished up. As far as Eskendereya's pedigree is concerned, this horse is bred to get 10 furlongs easily.

The Beyers for this past weekend's 4 preps:

1) Eskenderya- 106

2) Conveyance- 97

3) Discretely Mine- 94

4) Connemara- 83

I don't have any major problems with the figures assigned, although I think Eskenderya's 106 might be a few point higher than it deserved.

If Eskenderya's 106 is taken at face value, then Jackson Bend ran a 92 or 93 in the FoY.  In the Holy Bull, when Jackson Bend ran 2nd by 3/4ths of a length to Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend earned just a 90.  I very easily could be wrong, but I have trouble believing Jackson Bend ran better in the 9 furlong FoY than he did in the 1 mile Holy Bull.  At the very least, I think Jackson Bend's FoY Beyer should be equal to his HB.  When I was trying to calculate the Beyers Saturday night, I was thinking of 103 for Eskenderya, which would be in line with Jackson Bend running a 90 in the FoY.

It should also be mentioned that $10k claimers went 9 furlongs in 1:50 and 4 earlier on the FoY card.  If Eskenderya's 1:48 and 4 time produced a 106 Beyer, then the $10k claimers ran a 90.  Without having the past performances of those claimers, I don't know how a 90 fits with prior form.  But given that the winner of claimer didn't win by open lengths(won by just a half), a Beyer of 90 seems a little high for the level.  It is possible, however, that the Gulfstream track slowed as the day went along(the claimer was the 1st race).

Lastly, it should be kept in mind that Eskenderya was up on a rather tepid early pace.  Lasy year prior to the Derby, supporters of Quality Road were vocal in insisting that the horses running in other preps would simply not be able to keep up with Quality Road's early pace; there were many discussions comparing Quality Road's fractions in the FoY and Florida Derby to the pace in the other preps.

Let's get one thing clear about Eskenderya's 106 Beyer; it wasn't earned like Quality Road earned his 113 in last year's FoY, his 111 in the Florida Derby, or his 121 in the recent Donn.  Eskenderya earned the 106 by running steady 12s, with a final eighth in :12 and 1 and final 3 furlongs in :36 and 2.  While Eskenderya ran the first 6 furlongs of the FoY in 1:12 and 2, Quality Road ran the first 6 furlongs of 09' Florida Derby in 1:10 and 3 and the first 6 furlongs of the Donn in about 1:10 flat.  This, even though the track at Gulfstream this past Saturday was faster than it was for the Donn(Quality Road got a 121 Beyer for a time of 1:47 and 2, while Eskenderya got a 106 for 1:48 and 4; had Quality Road run a 121 this past Saturday, his time would have been 1:47 flat) and was just 2/5ths slower this past Saturday than it was for last year's Florida Derby.  The positives about Eskenderya are that he has excellent classic breeding, already has a number of 2-turn experience, and is not a need-the-lead type.

While Eskenderya was the most impressive 3 year old this past week, in terms of just pure speed, the most brilliant was Conveyance.  He was pressed hard through 6 furlongs in 1:10 and change and yet was able to keep fighting off challenges.  It's hard to know how he'll do as the diatnces get longer(he has a perfect 8-9 furlong pedigree), but he might benefit from the slower paces that longer races typically produce.  Calculating exactly how the likely benefit of slower paces is nullified by  possbile distance limitations will be a key handicapping exercise.  

2 more points:

1) Did anyone else notice that Conveyance's Beyer for the Southwest is exactly 6 points higher than his Beyer for the San Rafael?  The Beyers would suggest that Conveyance "moved up" on dirt, but another possibility is that Conveyance is equally adept on both synth and dirt but that the Beyers of synth races typically run about 6 points lower per class level/performance than do dirt Beyers.

2) Bob Black Jack received a 101 Beyer for his San Carlos.  In comparison to sprint Beyers for dirt races, this may seem unremarkable.  However, for synth races anything over 100 is quite good, and anything in the neighborhood of 110 is outright sensational.  Even Midnight Lute could only run a 110/111 when winning the 08' BC Sprint in spectacular fashion.  Bob Black Jack has consistently run Beyers over 100 on Santa anita's Pro-Ride, from his world record 6 furlongs early in his 3 year old season(in the Cal Breeder's Stakes), to his 108 in the gr.1 Malibu in December of 08', to his 101 two days ago in the San Carlos.

Do we have to talk about Buddy's Saint anymore?  The fact that Mr. Haskin had him first on his list tells you he has no shot.  The horse everyone should be talking about today is Mr. Nick Zito's.  Fly Down came off a long layoff to take on two very tough customers and gutted out a very impressive win.  If this horse is not in your top 10 he should be.  Nick is being very quiet with this horse but something tells me he is loaded with talent after that tough win yesterday.

Gunbow,

 I don't understand why you are comparing Eskendereya to Quality Road. Is Quality Road running in the Kentucky Derby? The two didn't even run on the same track on the same day. Why compare the two?

I wouldn't give up on Buddy's Saint just yet.  I remember when Afleet Alex threw a clunker in the 2005 Rebel and finished a distant last.  If I can remember correctly, he was a lot better after that experience.  If Buddy would have been in a good position late and got blown out, then okay, but he was never in the race because he never ran an inch after getting being pin-balled.  Also, Gulfstream is not the kind of track where you get a true assessment of a horse.  Cheap horses seem to be able to come from off the pace, but the better ones struggle if they aren’t up close or on the lead where they can take advantage of the bias.  Watch for Buddy to step up big time in the Tampa Bay Derby.

I tend to agree that Dublin was impressive in his race.  If you watch the replay, he started his run early on the back-stretch and kept it up right until the finish line.  this guy looks like he's ready to fire.

It must be that I have more patience or forgiveness than others on this blog. Since when does 1 race make or break a horse? Even Michael Jordan had some bad days in his career. I don't see Eskendereya as the next world beater because of 1 race. And I do not consider Buddy's Saint a donkey because of a poor decision by his jockey and some bad luck. If Buddy spins his wheels in the Woodward then I will scratch him off as a KY Derby pretender. It's just too easy to sit back after every prep race and think that every winner is going to be a star. Last week it was Caracortado, now it's Eskendereya, and before these 2 it was Winslow Homer and the legendary Drosselmeyer. My strategy is to keep watching and keep an open mind towards all 3 year olds.

As for Dublin, I too thought he was flying at the end of the race. That was until I noticed that they finished up in 13 and change. He was running at horses that were running slow at the end of a race. Conveyance had already done his job in the first 7 furlongs.

Thank you so much GunBow for taking the time to tell all of us about Mr. Bob Black Jack. His name alone reminds me of a wild west character out of a Clint Eastwood movie. He sure is a fighter and he likes to take the first shot! His world record is really not believable as the surface was scraped down so much. He is fast but 20 4/5 and 42 2/5 is hotter than lava.

Amen Gunbow.  Your +- 6 "standard error of measurment" makes a lot of sense going from synthetic to dirt.  

Amen dranay.  Could never quite tell what Buddy's Saint left in his dust.  Failed the "acid" test.

Forbidden Apple said: "If Buddy spins his wheels in the Woodward then I will scratch him off as a KY Derby pretender."

Well, seeing as how the Woodward is run in the fall, I would say that's probably a wise decision. ;)

Eskendereya has not peaked folks.  The FOY was merely his break-out race. There is a lot more to come that will hit you like a bomb. The six weeks between his next disappearing act in the Florida Derby and the big dance at Chuchill Downs will suit him down to the ground.  It will be interesting to see who will be showing up to take him on.  It seems that Rick Dutrow is considering testing another fancy of mine D'Funnybone against Eskendereya in the Florida Derby ...very interesting ...stay tuned because this Florida Derby is going to be the definitive prep or Derby field shaper.

If Zayat has hundreds of millions of dollars, why won't he pay his bills?

longwaytomay:

I thought I made it fairly clear why I brought Quality Road into the discussion.

I will elaborate though.  Quality Road won the FoY last year with a big Beyer(at a mile) and then won the Florida Derby with another big Beyer(at 9 furlongs).  I used Quality Road's splits and final times in those 2 races as well as his Donn earlier this year to provide a reference point for 1) How fast(or slow) Gulfstream was playing this past Saturday, and 2) How demanding(or not) the early pace was that Eskendereya pushed/set.

My conclusions are that while Eskendereya was impressive, and deserved a Beyer over 100(although maybe not 106), he had an absolutely dream trip in the FoY.  He sat in the garden spot stalking a slow early pace, a pace that is made to look even slower when compared to the pace Quality Road set in the Florida Derby and Donn on similarly fast tracks.  

Given the track on Saturday was faster than it was for Quality Road's Donn and only 2/5th slower than the "souped up" track for last year's Florida Derby, Eskendereya's 1:12 and 2 6 furlong split was quite tepid.  I like the way Eskendereya was able to post steady 12s and just run his competition into the ground, but how will he do when facing a horse like Conveyance that can go 1:10 and change?  In such a scenario, if Eskendereya is to be in the same garden spot he will have to run much faster early, and possibly compromise his late kick.  The other option if faced with a much faster pace is that Eskendereya will be rated about 7 lengths off the lead; while it's certainly plausible he could be successful doing so, it's not 100% certain.  

In short, despite how impressive Eskendereya was in the FoY, questions still remain(as is true for all contenders).  Quality Road's performances at Gulfstream, known to most on this blog, simply provided a good reference point against which to explore these questions.   Although the Beyers earned by Eskendereya in the FoY and Quality Road(last year) are similar and were done either on or near the lead, the pace scenarios are different.

Buddy's Saint got bumped a little ... what a shame.  We all know that will never happen in the Derby.  Give me a break.  Dublin looks good, D Funnybone is a seasoned veteran that looks tougher and tougher and Fly Down is now on the radar screen Mr. Zito.  No more hiding his talent. Where does he go next Mr. Zito?

Ha ha Kim, of course I meant the Wood Memorial. One bad race and now Buddy is nothing. I know better than to jump on the bandwagon of a Pletcher 3 year old this early in the season.

Longway, great point about QR. It is like comparing apples to oranges.

LAZ, Afleet Alex was sick with a lung infecion after that race. He came back and dominated, but also had a much better foundation in my opinion than Buddy's Saint. Buddy already has an ankle issue, and I can see him being taken off of the TC trail and point towards a fall campaign.

Gunbow,

 Thanks for your response. I don't disagree that Esk was in the garden spot but if you watch the replay he earned it. He certainly didn't break first but JV rushed him up to get into a great position before the first turn. In two turn routes at GP, being in position at the first turn is a necessity if you want to win. I believe that he was in the perfect stalking postion down the backstretch because of what he did in the short run to the first turn. Pretty smart on JV's part. As far as the Beyer figure goes, look how much the track variant changed from the first race to the FOY. I think I read somewhere that there was a seven point change. So maybee the 106 is inflated, it makes no difference to me. I do pay attention to the Beyer figs but don't think they are the only tool in the shed as some people do. (not suggesting that you do) All I know is that if Eskendereya can run solid 12's for ten panels then I'm pretty sure he can win the KY Derby.

 What would happen to Esk when Conveyance runs a 1:10? If the race is at 1 1/4 he would blow by him down the strectch when Conveyance runs out of gas. Conveyance will never get 1 1/4 if he runs a 1:10.

DRAYNAY

It's premature to discount Buddy's Saint.

Dray,

    Since when is hitting another horse so hard you bounce back into the rail, bounce back hit the horse, then back into the rail again a little? Just because you may not back a horse doesn't mean you downplay what actually happened. Though you seem to do that a lot in order to try and make yourself look smarter, so why am I surprised.

LDP

How's everything with you? I don't care what CERTAIN PEOPLE say I still like Buddy's Saint.

Hey Billy:

I wasn't trying to knock Afleet Alex.  I know he had a problem and obviously he overcame it.  What I'm trying to say is that Buddy didn't run an inch and foundation has nothing to do with that.  What happened to him in the turn had everything to do with it and then when you get caught behind at Gulfstream against good horses, it's almost impossible to come back.  His race proved nothing (positive or negative)and is a complete throw out.  It's interesting though, how on Jason's new blog that Buddy hardly gets a mention.  I still think he's going to be a big factor unless the ankle problem that you mentioned takes him off the trail.  LOL

LAZMANNICK

Besides what Billy said,I haven't heard anything about an ankle. His trainer stated he came out of the race well. I like Buddy's Saint.

Longwaytomay, you are 100% correct when you said that Conveyance can not win the KY Derby if he runs 1:10 3/5 again. He had to gun it from the 9 post on saturday. Read what I wrote and what others wrote. If Conveyence settles and gets to run around 1:12 2/5 like Eskendereya did, how dangerous would he be then? Conveyance is still learning and growing up himself. My point was that Conveyance will be a tough horse to handle if he saves ground and learns to rate a little. The last front running KY Derby winner was War Emblem, also trained by Bob Baffert. His fractions were 23 1/5, 47, 1:11 3/5, 1;36 3/5, and he finished in 2:01. Why not more respect for Conveyence? He beat Dublin who has a fan club 10 miles long because he is an offspring of Afleet Alex. Eskendereya be a slow Calder horse by the name of Jackson Bend. While another Pletcher horse, Aikenite did his dirty work by engaging in sumo wrestling with Buddy's Saint. I am still not sold 100% on any horse.

Buddy's Saint got bumped a little ... what a shame.

Draynay 23 Feb 2010 12:05 AM

Well we all know nay nay's not a trip handicapper except where it's convienient. What he said is like saying Big Brown had a little problem.....what a shame with his start in the Belmont.

On the other hand if Buddy's Saint had been his choice he would have proclaimed it almost a nuclear disaster. Some people are so predictable. Always the excuses when he's wrong and always the I told you so when he picks the 2/5 favorite along with most of the world and he's right.

Forbidden Apple,

 I did read what you and others wrote about Conveyance. I just don't believe that he is a horse that will rate. Nothing wrong with that as I think he is going to be very tough to beat as a miler. JMHO :)

I know I have posted lots of questionable things that deserved too be blasted. Especially about Todd P and Johnny V.

BUT, after seeing Eskendereya in person, he is my pick. I saw him in the post parade at GP, and he was big,strong, almost clumsy looking horse. He takes after his broodmare sire, Seattle Slew--"Baby Huey."

When Johnny V. asked him to go, he just exploded. The only horse I have seen with push button speed like that was Afleet Alex. He would sit and wait, and then just take off.

Dublin was awesome as well. Eskendereya has Triple Crown written all over him. This is the year!!! Never thought I would be pulling for Todd P. and Johnny V.

Eskendereya wasnt even breathing hard after the race. The pace was honest, but not too wicked. He could have gone anytime he wanted to.

Johnny V. touched him maybe twice or three times with the whip and thats it.

Easy trifecta this KY Derby. Eskendereya with Dublin, with all.

Eskendereya is a triple crown winner. Im calling it right now.

People: Fire Slam's last two comments are perfect examples of why it is smart not to get too excited about one win. The man is giving out his Derby trifecta on Feb. 24, not to mention giving us the first Triple Crown winner in three-plus decades. Wow...deep breathe anyone?

Way to go Fire Slam! You are bolder than I am.  Don't get lonely 'cause I'm pretty sure I'll be joining you on this Triple Crown waggon after the Florida Derby.

This is what makes it fun. Also, Soaring Empire is in Thursday at Gulfstream Park. Nice allowance race. Hope he runs big.

Jhandler--if you cant get excited about horses you like, then what is the use of following horse racing???

Sure its a bold statement and prediction. No need for you to bash me. Now when I come back and start bashing you, dont start putting words in my mouth. You started this.

Let it ride!!

1:48 4/5 is nothing to write President Obama about. Eskendereya is a nice horse, as his sire could run long and he sparkles like shiny copper. Giant's Causeway is a gorgeous stallion that produces quality horses. Out of the early KY Derby future pool, Eskendereya is one of the best bred horses for turf. I like him even more because of his grandfather Seattle Slew. It is simply to soon to possibly be thinking Triple Crown after a win over Jackson Bend. And your second pick is Dublin who is ready to bounce to the moon. If Afllett Alex is the only horse you remember with push button speed, you need to watch more replays. Have you seen the effortless moves by Barabaro and Big Brown for starters?

Forbidden Apple----

Not wanting to argue. Just excited about the upcoming road to the roses races!

Big Brown did not have the push button speed Alex had. Neither did Barabaro. I dont need to watch any replays.

Both Big Brown and Barbaro sat way closer the pace and would ease into  contention. ALEX would set a litter farther back, and then bam!!!! Explode pass other horses.

Perhaps you need to go back and watch some replays??

Now here we go. I showed some excitement about two horses, and all of a sudden two folks are hammering me.

Cant you guys have some fun. Pick a horse you really like and feel they are the one, and support them on this once in a life time journey? They are only three one time. This is the only shot they have.

Oh ya almost forgot. Soaring Empire is in at Gulfstream Park Thursday. Also, Afleet Express is a nice looking horse. Nice exacta.

Mike Relva--

Well said. Pick a horse and stay with them. He had an awful trip and lets see if he comes back.

This is what its all about. Spotting that horse, acting like the trainer, and trying to figure out the next moves.

This is what makes it fun.

I am stuck on a horse named Soaring Empire. His race Thursday at Gulfstream will decide if he should tackle the big dogs.

I think you and others are immensely flattered by anything related to Afleet Alex, now I get it. Three year old horses can turn a corner and mature in an instant. Do you remember how Big Brown came on the scene in March after only winning his maiden race on turf? I agree with your excitement, as I already have derby fever myself. One last point, Pletcher has another horse by the name of Super Saver that could be even better than Eskendereya.

SOARING EMPIRE!!! DID NOT SEE THE RACE BUT SAW THE RESULT. NOT SURE WHAT HAPPENED TO AFLEET EXPRESS??? THEN AGAIN, JOHNNY V. HAS A HABIT OF GETTING SHORT PRICES BEAT.

TODAY HAS BEEN A GOOD DAY FOR BETTING. I AM AHEAD!!!

Afleet Express was a very short horse yesterday, nothing to do with John Velazquez. You can cross him off as a KY Derby prospect.

Secretariat will never move over, he has cemented his place in history for another 100+ years.

CAROLYN

I agree with you. Some people pump up  a new horse and wanna dismiss legends like they don't matter anymore. Makes no sense!