he didnt have a hard race so now you wait till the wood and you think that will be enough for the derby dist. please so tired of horses being babied.most trainers now a days do this 5 or even 6 wks from last race till derby.like buddy before wont bet a dime on him now

He's behind the eight ball getting his training in time-wise. Kinda in the same boat as Rachel.

I agree with hugs, ignorance on the part of Levine to put the horse on the shelf and wait for the Wood, I'd say he may run 4th in that race and then he'll be off the radar, he should get him ready for the summer campaign or focus on the Preakness and Belmont, because his bringing him back with a first race in Feb and then waiting another 6 weeks to run him in the wood is one of the worst training decisions ever, ranks up there with B.Tagg working Funny Cide a bullet 5f before the Belmont or Larry Jones not working Old Fashioned for 3 weeks prior to the Rebel last year, both awful decisions trying to focus on 1 date, the first saturday in May, stop just pointing towards a day and let the horse tell you what he or she needs.  Awful decision to pass up all of these upcoming prep races, I guess Levine is saying he's good enough to bring a horse back from a layoff and basically a non starter race in the FOY and win the Wood off no preps and Derby off 1 prep. lol very sad for the horse and the people that own the horse and put their trust in the trainer.

I still consider Buddy's Saint to be a legitimate contender.  It would have been nice for him to have had a better showing, but if he comes back and wins the Wood, his bandwagon will be overloaded.

I have not given up on him yet, or American Lion for that matter.  Let's see one more race to find out how they respond and make our judgements in the weeks leading up to the Derby.

Even if trainer said horse is fit i would not believe him

Hugs and Alex: I think you need to understand that the horse is sore. The trainer cant rush him back into training. He needs time. Levine's hands are tied. He only has time to get one more prep in him. Nothing he can do about it. I think you're opinions are a little misguided.

I will say this though: I questioned bringing Buddy's Saint back off a layoff in a 9F race. I thought he could have tried to find a softer spot for him in early February, maybe at a mile. Earnings or distance were not a concern with the horse. Not what I would have done at first glance, but then again, Levine knows the horse better than all of us.

Opinion

Levine has messed this horse up somehow--no threat at all in Wood--no A Game next start

I give Levine a ton of credit for saying "I'm not interested in going to the Derby with a 30-1 shot just so we can say we were at the Derby."

More trainers need to adopt that attitude.  I'm so sick of the KD field clogged with extremely questionable entrants.  Yes I know Mine That Bird was 50/1 but I never considered him extremely questionable.  He had the strong 2YO season and a classic distance pedigree.

I mean the trainers that enter obvious turf or synthetic specialists, obvious sprinters/milers, and things like that.

I'll get off my soap box now.  

Well first I failed to realize that the Wood was coming up so quickly.  Second lemme say that while the conventional path is not an option i must agree that bringing him back at 9 furlongs was certainly an issue, there are a number of 1 mile and 1 1/16th mile races out there, but to put all of your eggs in a very small basket with little margin of error seems to have backfired on them, what are his chances at 10 panels after basically 1 prep. Not Good, I like the horse alot loved his sire and see alot of him in the colt, but just like Baffert with LAL reverting back to 2 year old form and foundation is always taking a chance.

If Eskendereya blows away the field in the Florida Derby like he did in the Fountain of Youth it's all over. you will have your Ky. Derby winner.

Yeah, it's a shame that a trainer would baby a horse.  C'mon, let the trainer make the decisions.  I think all the horses should be babied, they go out there and give it everything they got.

I THINK THE DERBY HAS A NICE MIX OF CONTENDERS THIS YEAR WITH A REALLY GOOD STORYLINE BREWING, ESPECIALLY, IF BUDDY'S SAINT COMES ROARING BACK.  CARACORTADO WOULD BE A GREAT STORY TOO.  I'M DISAPPOINTED IN HOW THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH PLAYED OUT FOR BUDDY'S SAINT BUT, YOU KNOW, NO ONE THOUGHT THE WOOD WOULD TURN OUT THE WAY IT DID IN 1973 SO THINGS CAN TURN AROUND VERY QUICKLY IN THIS BUSINESS.

Sounds to me like he was sore before the FOY race anyway, the HRTV commentators said Levine had been hosing down his leg previous to that race. I liked him previously, but now he's not going to be a major player for the Derby! He should point him to the later summer/fall races, then he will add an interesting mix in the stakes races during that time. IMO!!

Being a precocious 2 year-old doesn't always equate to being a flourishing 3 year-old.  I'm not sure if this is germane to the subject at hand, but I was dying to use the word "precocious" today.

HUGS/AFLEETALEX FOREVER

Horses' aren't machines,like Jason stated Buddy's trainer knows him better than anyone,as far as  "BABIED" it's called what's doing right by the horse!

STEVE S

Stupid statement,Levine hasn't "messed up" his horse. Maybe you should contact him and give some training advice!

Afleetalexforever how was Tagg focusing on the first Saturday in May by working Funny Cide a bullet before the Belmont?  

You all need to stop the Levine bash fest.  Regardless of his or the riders alleged mistakes, the fact is the horse reacted poorly to adversity.  You should thank your lucky stars you knew about that issue before throwing all your money down on him in the Derby.  

There is one sure bet in a 20-horse Derby.  Every horse is going to encounter some sort of trouble.  Whether it's Big Brown breaking from post 20 or Mine That Bird stumbling at the start, the winners overcome adversity.

I'm not saying Buddy's Saint should have won the FoY, but a solid Derby contender should have shown more fortitude.  

buddy saint=bust! He is done for the derby trail!

He would've wound up 8-10 or more off the lead anyway, the only difference would've been Buddy's Saint would've had the energy to actually close some ground. He is an exceptional horse and exceptional horses can overcome things like bias. Maybe in this case he would've wound up second or thrid, but he still gets more out of it than what he did. It was not Buddy's fault, it was the jocks.

Venceremos, it might be easier for you to understand the fundamentals of a statement before making yourself look ignorant when directing comments towards a specific poster.  Let me break it down for you since it would seem that you can't comprehend what my statement really means. In horse racing there are decisions that have to be made from time to time that affect your horse in a good or bad way.  Some of those decisions are remembered vividly even years after the event, 2 that stand out in my mind were that of Barclay Tagg and Larry Jones, so I mentioned them Tagg's occured a week before the Belmont that year and Jones's decision before an Arkansas Derby prep.  Both decisions caused adverse results, Funny Cide too keen and head strong flashing that speed early in the Belmont causing him to lose the race, therefore I mentioned that as a bad or shall we say questionable decision.  The same way I would question Levine's decision to only prep the horse twice before the Derby which has now backfired as he really didnt get a prep in the FOY it was basically of no benefit for the horse.

For all those who judge owners and trainers, accuse them of babying their horses and want to train and race the hell out of them, stop acting like spoiled brats! We don't know how sore Buddy's Saint is, if he is simply body sore or more seriously injured. It is unusual for a trainer to admit that a  horse is sore.

The horse's initials are B.S.  I'm not a terribly superstitious bettor but betting on B.S. can't be a good idea.  So he's not getting any of my money in the Derby even if he wins the Wood by a pole.    

Buddy's Saint reminds me of Read the Footnotes. FRAGILE

Tampa, race 5, Sunday on Turf, 1 1/8 miles, our 10 horse is racing on his birthday, wish him luck.

Have a good weekend. The Blue Moon's are calling...

Would someone explain to me why horses today need a month or five weeks between races? Remember when the Wood and the Arkansas Derby were two weeks before the Derby? It is not like the horses today are breaking down less or staying sound longer, it is just the opposite. Today everyone wants a fresh horse instead of a fit horse, I don't think this is good for the horses or the sport.

Mike I agree that horses dont need 5 weeks before races run them run them run them! I also like the buddy saint bash fest going on that horse is weak. IWR almost fell out of the gate got back in the race and won. Real derby horses can overcome anything buddy saint is not a derby horse he is a good allowance horse!

Mike's comments reflect mine.  If the horse didn't get much out of the race, why not run him back quicker?  Oh that's right.  He'll be facing most of the same cast of characters as in FOY.  Precocious is what Buddy's Saint was, and it looks like his class caught up with him.  He certainly won't be on my 2nd future book ticket.

You play like you practice. Dont care if Buddy Saint works five miles each day. Its not the same as a race condition. Hate it when a trainer decides to train up to a race.

Also hate it when a trainer puts their horses in all the big graded races and knock heads with good horses before the Derby.

Cant believe more trainers dont target the Delta Jackpot. Its graded, and is a soft spot. You run 1 or 2 in that, you can dodge the big dogs, and hook them on the first Saturday in May. Thats when it matters.

Soaring Empire, Dublin, and Eskendereya is the KY Derby Trifecta. Eskendereya will make the lead at the top of the stretch after laying 3rd or 4th on the outside, and will have to hold off a late charge from Soaring Empire and Dublin.

I like Buddy's Saint.  I've not discounted him yet.  I'm certain he's very sore after the FOY.  Imagine if you flipped your car, and it rolled several times, while you bounced around on the inside.  How soon would you be ready drive down that same stretch of highway again?  Physical soreness and psycholgical impact take their toll.  I don't think it's babying Buddy to wait.  It would appear that Bruce Levine is the best judge of Buddy's abilities right now.  I'll wait and see how he does in the Wood.

Bruce Levine is a top trainer. I don't think he needs advice from armchair or internet trainers who haven't been around this horse at all. While other trainers may have different opinions, it's Bruce's call. He's had this horse from day one, knows the horse intimately well, better than anyone of course, and he makes the decision based upon the hand he's been dealt. That's the racing game.

Will the horse be "fit" and ready to go to war in the Wood? To the extent possible, absolutely, because Levine said it takes a 1-2 finish to go to KY. We're not talking about a rookie trainer here.

A horse needs everything to go right before the Derby and this certainly is not a good spot for Buddy to be in...THAT BEING SAID, I wouldn't be calling him a throwout just yet, he's got a lot of natural talent and had a nice 2 yr old campaign. He's not a top ten contender anymore, but still dangerous to overlook.

MIKE

Oh,ok so it's better to have a horse "run into the ground than a fresh horse? How is it not "good for the game" as you seem to think? Explain that one! lol

Bruce Levine knows what he is doing with his horses. Comments that question his ability, his knowledge, his motives, ignore the horseman and dismiss the love he has for his horses, and his profession.

Buddy's Saint, wherever placed by his trainer, is worthy of consideration. Ignore or dismiss Buddy's Saint should he run in the Kentucky Derby, and one does so at one's peril. Because you would have to wait another year to find the winner of the Derby.

Jason:

If the Sham happens to cancel on Saturday due to the weather, it will be moved to Sunday.

people still showing the respect pool 2 looking the same as pool 1 right around 10-1 - maybe a little too much respect ?

i took him in pool 1 and i thought i was sitting on a solid horse but that last race spells out MUSH hope i am wrong

Every trainer is racing their horses less and spacing them out more, not just Bruce Levine. If he said the horse is body sore, then believe him. How would you feel if you went out for a fast run and one of your friends pushed you into a wooden rail a few times? I think you would be sore too. I am glad that Jason jumped in and made those comments, because some of these statements are 100% misguided and selfish. The health of the horse is the #1 concern for the trainer. I do not know how anyone can say that this is Levine's fault, the horse was smacked around in a race, it is simply bad luck.

Maybe Hugs, Afleetalexforever, Tay, and Itainteasy should apply for a trainer's license. Have any of you guy's worked on the backstretch before? Nick Zito has every horse in poultice every day, does that mean they are all sore? No, it is just his way of training. I was a runner and I had to ice my legs every day after training, but I was not injured. Hosing and icing are used for relief of every day pain and for healing. Not every horse that is being hosed is messed up or busted. Some trainers use ice every day of the week to prevent injuries.

I know this horse is better than his FOY effort, good luck in the Wood.

All of you Eskendereya/Pletcher groupies will be eating chalk on the first saturday in May.

If any of you want to watch a story about a genuine running machine, go rent the movie PHAR Lap. At one point in his career he won 4 races in 1 week! After his death, they found that he had a freakishly large heart like SECRETARIAT. Their are no Phar Laps or Secretariats in this year's triple crown races, so get used to several weeks between races.

I don't think the winner of the Remsen or Nashua has become a Derby winner since '94/'95.  Maybe hopes were too high for Buddy's Saint in general.

Sometimes good 2 year olds don,t train on as 3 year olds but it,s too early to say that about Buddy,s

Saint as he had lots of excuses in his last race.Best to give him another chance before deciding on him.

"Levine went on to say: "He has to be one-two in the Wood for us to proceed. He has to redeem himself."

Sure, the jock screws the pooch and get hell beat outa the horse and it's the horse who has to "redeem" himself.

Buddy Saint is off my band wagon, but not because of the trainer,or jockey, but because of the horse himself. Levine even said that he hasn't matured much since his two year old year. While all the other three year olds are growing, maturing and putting on muscle and getting faster, Buddys Saint has stayed the same in the eyes of his trainer, the one that knows him best. An old trainer once told me that the best thing about a two year old is that they eventually turn three. With that being said, and what Levine said about his own horse, I beleive that is enough to write him off the list completly. Hope Im wrong because I happen to like Bruce Levine as a trainer

Billy's Empire- Good luck with your horse and have a great weekend!

Kudos for Mr. Levine,sticking with jockey Jose Lezcano.Lezcano is one of the best riders in thoroughbred racing.

dont count out anything or anyone with saints in there name this year

Buddy's Saint is no Derby threat what so ever.

Not sure about getting one ready off of 2 races, one a bad experience. Maybe a later race in the TC? The Wood? Hmmmm long time since it produced a winner, 01 and that was the second place finisher Funnycide, right?

Truthfully, BS is more likely to get bounced around like a pinball in the Derby than he EVER was in the FOY. An inexperienced Derby jock on a horse that's already had one bad trip? Makes for a bad combination IMO.

Billy, don't think I'm questioning you but, how many syndicates/partnerships are you part of?

Is Buddy's Saint still a Triple Crown Horse? I dunno, is the Santa Anita Handicap still gonna be run tommorrow? (prob not)....like Mast Track, not biting on the filly to beat males at 1 1/4--and at 7-2, no less--no thanks, I'll take Mr Flores, on a front runner, a horse that gets the 1 1/4....

Everyone doubted the New Orleans Saints??????

And now Buddy Saint. Just saying. I wont be using him, which means everyone should go to the window with him.

Have loved Soaring Empire since his first start. Will take him, Dublin, and Eskendereya.

Ilwacocapper,

The year of the Saints, baby!

That's what I'm talking about..how many of you didn't think the Saints could possibly win the Superbowl?

Smart move in my opinion by Levine, get this horse's thoughts off his last race by moving him to a new track and give him a new scene to run at. You gotta love this guy, he's no dummy.

I only hope he gets to the big dance and everyone counts him out. I'll be glad to take the money and run.

After that race, no wonder the horse is sore.  Is there a problem with "babying a horse"?

Simply put no he is not.

TONY BADA BING

So your sure of that,right?

It Ain't Easy

You can't compare the two races of IWR and Buddy, both are way too different. The Wood wasn't run on the inner dirt course, meaning the track wasn't nearly as speed favoring, where as Buddy's Saint was racing at Gulfstream on probably one of the, if not the most speed biased track in America. IWR was also a fit horse having raced in two starts prior to his Wood win, while Buddy's Saint was coming off a layoff. I agree IWR's race was extremely impressive, but also, he wasn't racing against a whole ton of horses, so when he did go to make his move he was a lot less likely to get slammed. Buddy in his race was against what, nine other horses, so his chances after breaking badly of encountering traffic were much higher. Another thing is, Buddy's jockey could've taken a big cue from JT and WAITED. JT allowed IWR to wait, instead of rushing him up, where as Buddy was rushed up through a whole that he never should've been sent through, and as a result got bounced around like a ping pong ball. The races, as you can see are too different to compare.

I have to say that for sentimental reasons I picked Buddy's Saint.  There is something about being by a horse that only had a small amount of foals before dying young that appeals to the "what might have been" part of my brain.  With his pre-Derby plan starting to unravel, I wish him the best of luck, but he will need to be an exceptional horse to get into the starting gate Derby Day and have a good shot.  If he's not there, he should hopefully still do well later in the season.

I know this isn't part of the Triple Crown Talk, but we got 1 more week until the 2010 debuts for both Rachel and the Zen Master. I don't know if its just me, but at this point in time it seems like Zenyatta is just thriving right now to where Rachel has been doing things a little irregular in the morning. I know we're still a month away from the Apple Blossom and a lot can change, but I'd be feeling fairly confident if I were on the Zenyatta squad. I wonder how much weight they're going to pack on her for next week.

LDP,

I'd give Lezcano the benefit of the doubt on this one. I think he went for that hole knowing that GP is a speed favoring track, so he'd figure i'd better get up close to the pace or else i'm dead. I think if it was at any other track, he'd have taken a hold and bided his time.

Rock,

    My point was it was not the horse's fault. I know BL was just probably trying not to throw Lezcano under the bus, but in this case it was his fault. Yes Buddy broke slowly, but he is a big horse, and normally horses his size tend to break a bit slower, from what I've seen. That was the only thing that Buddy did wrong, and had he not been rushed he could've overcome it, but we will never know. BL could've just said to give Lezcano the benefit of the doubt, w/o putting blame on Buddy.

The Rock,

 I agree that Lezcano knew that with the bad break he needed to hustle to get position on the first turn. The problem was there was NO hole big enough for him to go for but he forced the issue anyway. It was poor judgement on his part. I agree with LDP that he should have waited instead of losing any chance he had right at the start of the race. JMHO

After a layoff you dont ever run 9f onthe dirt--only can get away with that on turf

So I guess you don't want to be a closer at Aqueduct today.

Far too early to throw out Buddy's Saint as a 3yr old contender.  Will he make or be competitive in the Derby?  I have no idea but many top horses have thrown in poor races in the past and rebounded.  However, I do think that the recent trend of fewer preps before the Derby and more spaced out races is leading to more unfit horses competing.  It is basically the result of a few top trainers that did it and were successful; so lots of other trainers jumped on that bandwagon.  Is the breed more fragile?  Maybe; Or maybe, with fewer races, many of the horses are not given deep enough foundations to really be fit for their races.

I still think that Buddy is the real deal.  He had a tough trip that none of the other contenders would have overcome.  Lezcano is no  slouch either.  Everybody makes mistakes and so does he, but he is still one of the top jocks around and will improve......Two others threw their hats in the ring today.  Awesome Act looked good in the Gotham, but the one who continues to impress was Alphie's Best in the Sham.  This guy ran not too far off the pace and closed strongly.  I think that he is a SERIOUS contender.

Jason,

 If Zenyatta is ever going to lose a race it will be for the exact same reason as Blind Luck lost today. You can't be that confident on a closer when there are other really good horses in the same race. Did Bejarano think Crisp was going to rollover and stop running coming down the lane? Very bad ride in my opinion, he left way too much work to do once they hit the stretch.

longway: Bejarano had a rough day.

Was impressed with Awesome Act but it is the inner track; must be noted. Nice win for Alphie's Bet, but he's not a Derby threat.

Longway:

Mike Smith won't make that mistake.

He knows Rachel's running style, he will bring the queen up close early on, she works by his shaking of the reigns, they know what to do. this wont be no Clement Hirsch race.

longway, that's why, to me, it's so amazing she's undefeated. Blind Luck had some bad luck today (jockey's choices?). She's so good.

Bad ride on Blind Luck? Blind Luck just wasn't good enough.

Buddy's Saint may be heading to the Wood Memorial to avoid Eskendereya but another monster just entered the fray today and he is also headed to the Wood Memorial.  Awesome Act just showed us the "tip of the iceberg" in the Gotham.  This is an ultra smart colt whose performance is no flash-in-the-pan seeing that he demonstrated some ability in the Breeder's Cup juvenile last season, finishing 4th behind Vale Of York, Looking At Lucky and Noble's Promise.  He is bred-in-the-purple for the triple crown challenge. Watch for him to "up the ante" in the Wood.  Good luck to Buddy's Saint and his connection (sincerely).  

Just came home from Santa Anita. Boy! did we dodge a bullet today with the rain waiting...and waiting. Finally it did come but it was not enough to mess up the racing. Very exciting races and many good prices. Too bad you did not handicap SA on THS, I could have used your help, Jason. By the way good call on Paddy O'Prado.

A mare did win against the boys at SA today but it wasn't St Trinians. She tried hard though. Proviso took the Kilroe Mile and showed the males how it's done. Mike Smith was aboard. He was also on Niko Bay in the Big Cap and just missed.

A seldon heard of trainer had back to back wins today. Her name is Alexis Barba. Make Music for Me took the Pasadena Stakes and Alphie's Bet the Sham Stakes. I'd say she had a pretty good day, wouldn't you? Next time I see her name on the program, I'll pay attention.

It's raining now. Hope it doesn't turn into a downpour. There's a Pick 6 carry over for tomorrow at SA. Good luck if you like to bet on those. Me? I have enough problems figuring ONE race never mind SIX!!!

Ranagulzion

Awesome Act finished a close 4th in the Juvenile Turf last year to Pounce (on grass), not the Juvenile.

what is the use of having an all-weather track if you have to worry about rain?

This kind of defeats the purpose????? Drainage problems or not.

This is a correction about Awesome Act's Breeder's Cup 4th place finish in my previous post.  It was in the Turf behind Pounced, Bridgetown and Interactif not on the Pro-ride with VoK, LAL and NP.

    The trip that Buddy's Saint received in the FOY was unfortunate.  What is good is the fact that at least he only came out of the race "sore" and is still on the Derby trail unlike many horses who become injured this time of year.  Yes, it's a good thing he's only on the shelf until the Wood and not on the shelf until July.  Anyway, with that being said, I never really liked him as a Derby contender anyway.  His figs aren't very impressive.

    Personally, I'm on the Dublin bandwagon at this point.  Lukas hasn't had a whole lot of success in the past decade, but I think the Coach will pull a fast one on many of us this year.  There seems to be a lot of speed in this year's Derby picture to this point which seem to favor Dublin's chances.  I don't know if I'm thrilled about the switch to Nakatani, but Lukas will have him right at the right time, the 1st Saturday in May.  Come on Dublin, get back to that morning line in Derby Pool 2.

ZOOKEEPER:

My gosh, you folks have had alot of rain out in California lately, haven't you? I know I have been reading so much of Santa Anita's tracks being soaked due to the rain.

Has it been more than usual, this year?

DRAYNAY

God! You act as if Blind Luck is running in claiming races! She has great talent.

Draynay,

 I would be willing to bet that you didn't even watch the race after making that remark. Just another one of your lame attempts to stir the pot. She was must the best and anybody who saw the race knows it. I've already read where Bejarano said that he blew it.

The field in the Sham was a lot less than stellar and I don`t see anyone in the race making noise along the TC trail.  With the expected defections of West coast horses to drier trackes and real dirt the SA Derby may come up weak this year.  I know Cacataco has many fans on here, but even if he wins the SA race I won`t use him @ CD.  What impressed me with Awesome Act was that he basically ran the race right off the plane.  I`ve put him on my just maybe list.

Jason,

 Is there a way to figure out the will pays on the Derby future bet exactas before the pool closes tonight?

I agree on the bad ride from Bejarano on Blind Luck. That's two races in a row. I wonder if Hollendorfer will make a swtich going into the Ashland and/or KY Oaks. I remember Tyler Baze being on the horse before he he fractured his finger in December. I think a switch back will do the trick.

Ranagulzion,

Awesome Act did not run in the Breeders Cup Juveline Dirt/Synthetic. He ran in the Breeders Cup Juveline Turf. Just keeping you honest.

He is far better on the turf and will not beat the top class dirt colts.

Yes, Zookeeper, we were lucky with the rain. However, the threat of rain clearly limited the attendance.

I know the talk before the Big Cap was that it was wide open, and that a longshot might light up the board. In the end, much like with Einstein and Heatseeker the last 2 years, class did rise to the top in the biggest race on Pro-Ride. Misremembered, the winner of the Indiana Derby(on dirt), Swaps and 2nd in the Malibu, Strub, and Clark(on dirt in a photo, finishing ahead of Einstein, Macho Again and others), did something few horses have been able to do this meet, run near the pace and then win a 2-turn stakes race.  This style had been his undoing in the Strub, yet Baffert was stubborn, and was vocal before the race that he would instruct Martin Garcia to take Misremebered to the front end yet again.

I personally thought the strategy would produce another loss, albeit a close loss. I certainly respected Misremebered, and continued to think he was a real talent, but I couldn't help think that his style simply didn't fit the track profile at Santa Anita and that try as he might, someone was going to catch him in the stretch of the Big Cap.

What made Misrembered's win (against the track profile) so impressive is that he was sitting 2nd off very legitimate fractions.  Mast Track, who ended up 14th and last, ran 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 4, almost unheard of for a 2-turn race at Santa Anita, particularly since it was a 10 furlong race. As a point of comparison, the 6 furlong split of the 8.5 furlong Santa Anita Oaks was 1:13 and 4, a full 3 seconds slower.

Misrembered moved easily to Mast Track at the top of the stretch, but a wall of horses were making their late runs, and it appeared the Big Cap would be a rerun of the Strub for Baffert, with Misrembered getting nailed in deep stretch.  And Meko Bay did come running, but Misrembered just kept fighting.

Although sitting off a fast pace(almost ridiculously fast for Pro-Ride), Misrembered still turned in solid closing fractions, and didn't run any quater slower than 25 seconds.  Misremebered ran the final quarter in :24.53, for a final time of 2:00 and 1.  A wondeful looking chestnut ridgling by the hot sire Candy Ride, Misrembered is already a proven stakes horse on dirt, so there are no questions on that front.  Although Misrembered was impressive in the Big Cap, I still think he is probably better on dirt and Hollywood's Cushion Track than Pro-Ride; I can't emphasize enough how rare it has been for speed horses to win races around 2-turns at Santa Anita.  The fact Misrembered was able to overcome the track profile speaks to just how talented this horse is.  I think when he gets back on dirt, his speed will be an even greater weapon.  And now that we know he can get 10 furlongs, the sky is the limit.  While he still has things to prove, Misrembered is a horse with the size, speed and talent to really push horses like Quality Road and Summer Bird.  The West coast desperately needed a horse to emerge as a legit champion contender in the handicap division, and now they have one.

As for the other horses, recent form help up amazingly well. Neko Bay, coming off a win in the gr.2 San Pasqual, obviously ran well, but he had a fast pace and the track profile in his favor. On dirt, I think Misremembered is clearly superior to Neko Bay, although Neko Bay did run his best Beyers(103 and 104) back in 2007 on dirt. Dakota Phone was again disrespected in the wagering, but he was coming off a sharp 2nd, by a nose, to Dubai-bound Richard's Kid in the gr.2 San Antonio.  A tough, consistent horse with alot of heart, Dakota Phone has made a good career for himself picking up minor awards in graded stakes races. Dakota Phone's 3rd in the Big Cap was a big improvement from his 9th place finish in his previous 10 furlong attempt, last year's Hollywood Gold Cup. Now that Dakota Phone has proven himself comeptitive in graded stakes at distances between a mile and 10 furlongs, one would think that it's only a matter of time before he gets his much deserved graded stakes victory.  Running 4th in the Big Cap was the Strub winner Jeranimo.  A horse with a serious turn of foot, I was suprised to see Jeranimo so fowardly paced, sitting just a few lengths off of Misremebered.  Perhaps Jeranimo needs more cover, although it's possible that running his 5th race in 2 months caught up with him.

St. Trinians tried hard, but it's possible 10 furlongs is a little too far for her.  St. Trinians was also compromised by having to go extremely wide into the stretch; her trip in the Big Cap was a far cry from what she experienced in the Santa Maria.  Finally, St. Trinians is not a big mare and was facing 13 males, many of which like Misremembered, are big and rugged horses.  As for Loup Breton, it's back to the turf.

Jason,

Street Sense, Big Brown and Mine That Bird had only two preps before the derby and they won. Big Brown had only one start as 2YO consequently Buddy’s Saint is ahead of him at this point. Street Sense and Mine That Bird were both 2YO champions and were ahead of Buddy’s Saint at this point. Buddy’s Saint will be fine with one more start before the derby if he is the quality horse his trainer believes him to be. Big Brown won with only three starts. The filly Regret and Triple Crown winner Assault won with no preps. In fact Regret & Assault made their 3YO debut in the derby. The quality of the animal is far more important than the number of starts before the derby.

The great Lammtarra won the Epsom Derby in a NTR that still stands today in only his second start and after 302 days layoff.  He was also very sick in his early 3YO season and was not expected to participate in the derby. The exceptional ones find a way to overcome adversity. Is Buddy’s Saint exceptional? His trainer thinks he is and he should know.

NB: Lammtarra was trained for the Epsom by Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor. Those who think he cannot train a horse in Dubai and take it to the US and win the Kentucky Derby should reassess their positions.  It must be considerably easier to win the Kentucky Derby from Dubai than to take a colt that recovered from serious illness and a 302 day layoff to win one of Europe's premier races.

Jason,

What’s your take on Mendip? Based on my records his sire Harlans Holiday is the only Storm Cat line stallion that has sired a top three derby finisher. Yes, the great Giant’s Causeway is behind Harlans Holiday in this department. The aforementioned top three finisher is Denis Of Cork who closed from 20th to gain third behind Big Brown and the ill fated filly Eight Belles. They showed an overhead shot of his run from the back of the field and it was similar to runs of Street Sense and Mine That Bird. Mendip is bred along a similar cross to Denis Of Cork. Mendip’s dam was sired by Coronado Quest a brilliantly fast grandson of Mr. Prospector. Denis Of Cork’s dam was sired by Unbridled a derby wining grandson of Mr. Prospector. Unbridled Girl the dam of Denis Of Cork made three starts and earned $3740. Well Spring the dam of Mendip made three starts and earned $9750.

Denis Of Cork was a dead closer. However, it appears Mendip has inherited some of the speed of his dam sire Coronado Quest. He has been forwardly placed in all his races to date. He has displayed impressive acceleration in the stretch with a fluent stride. I do not take the Storm Cat sire line serious in the derby but I like this colt. Harlans Holiday produced another good colt that I thought would been in the derby mix after his impressive debut. However, Danger To Society for unknown reason is now MIA.

Some more thoughts about Big Cap day:

Santa Anita Oaks- One would have thought that Bejarano would have learned his lesson in the Las Virgenes, but in the Santa Anita Oaks he once again gave Blind Luck a poor and overconfident ride.  One would think Blind Luck has the speed to be closer than 5 lengths off of a :24 and 4, :49 and 3, and 1:13 and 4 pace.  Yet, there was Blind Luck in last down the backstretch as All Due Respect and Crisp set a brutally slow pace.  Blind Luck came with a strong stretch run, but Bejarano had given her so much to do, and then to compound it, steered Blind Luck right into the backside of All Due Respect and Crisp approaching the wire.  Had Beharano been able to find a clear path down the stretch, Blind Luck probably would have won despite Bejerano's overconfidence; with his overconfidence, Bejarano had left no further room for error, and unfortunately for himself and Blind Luck, the holes closed up doming down the stretch.

Even had Blind Luck experienced a better trip and won, she wouldn't have won by alot.  At this point, one has to wonder if Bllind Luck hasn't stalled in her development.  One thing is clear, she really isn't any bigger than she was when she won the Hollywood Starlet.  Although Blind Luck is not small, and does have good muscle definition, she is one the shorter side and would be dwarfed by males; Crisp towers over her.  I respect Blind Luck and acknowledge she has not received good set-ups in her last 2 starts, but it's clear she hasn't improved off her dazzling win in the Starlet.  While it's easy to make Bejarano the total scapegoat, I am inclined to believe that if Blind Luck truly was a superstar, she would have been versatile enough to adjust to the slow paces, and either showed more early speed or allowed Beharano to move earlier.  

Crisp was a filly I heavily touted before the Las Vigenes, and then she went out and ran a stinker.  However, her trainer, John Sadler, fitted her with blinkers for the Santa Anita Oaks, and her jockey, Joel Rosario, was noticeably confident in the paddock.  I had fallen for Crisp when I saw her in the saddling area before the Las Virgnes, and she looked just as good yesterday.  If someone's looking for a 3 year old filly with the size to stare the boys in the eyes, this is your filly.  Crisp is so tall and long, and her frame suggest that she still has room for develoment. This is a filly just now starting to find herself, and based purely on physical appearance, would appear to have more upside than Blind Luck.  

Crisp has a long way to go, however, before being compared to Rachel or Big Z, or before the "running against the boys" talk starts.  While Crisp appears to have the physical talent to one day be a major star, she will need to continue improving.  The fact is, the Oaks was a rather unimpressive race as a whole, with recent Fair Ground maiden, All Due Respect, beaten only a neck in 2nd, and the rcent maiden winning Cal-bred, Warren's Jitterbug, a close 4th.

Kilroe Mile-

Like Crisp, I had loved Proviso going into her last start, a solid 2nd to Gabby's Golden Gal in the gr.1 Santa Monica.  Although facing males in the Kilroe, Proviso brought a ton of class, having finished first in the gr.1 Spinster(before being dq'd to 2nd), running 3rd to Goldikova in a French group 1, and winning a French group 3.  

In the Kilroe, Proviso did what Ventura could not do last year, and win a photo.  To win that photo Proviso had to catch a very talented male, Fluke, coming off a striking win in the gr.1 Citation in November.  Fluke had spearated himself from the pack at the top of the stretch in the Kilroe, but then Proviso broke out and under strong urging from Mike Smith, was just able to get up.  Although the photo was extremely close, Smith knew he had won the race the moment he and Proviso hit the wire.  

Proviso looks all set to pick up the torch of the wonderful Ventura.  Like Ventura, Proviso has proven herself amazingly versatile, adept on turf or synthetic, at sprints and around 2 turns (up to 9 furlongs).  Now that she has proven herself against males, her tainer Bill Mott has many races to chose from.

Fluke probably lost the Kilroe when his prep race, a restricted stakes at one mile on the turf, was washed out on February 6th.  As well as Proviso ran, I have to think that the final sixteenth would have played out differently had Fluke been allowed to have a prep.  

As it was, Fluke ran extremely well in his first start in over 3 months.  Humberto Ascanio clearly had Fluke sharp, with Fluke setting the Kilroe pace under Joe Talamo.  This was in contrast to the Citation where Fluke stalked in midpack and then came with a brilliant turn around the turn and into the stretch.  In midstretch of the Kilroe, Fluke and Talamo again appeared headed for victory having opened up a clear lead with a strong turn of foot at the top of the stretch.  

While Fluke tired just enough late for Provsio to catch him, he still ran the final eighth in :11 and 1.  All in all, it was a promising return for a very legitmate gr.1 horse; look for Fluke to be a major factor in middle distance races on turf.

As for the others in the Kilroe, Battle of Hastings turned in his typical workmanlike performance to get 3rd.  The Kilroe was the 8th time Battle of Hatings(just a 4 year old) has won or placed in a graded stakes.  However, he is now on a 5-race losing streak, and it's begininng to feel like there will always be a horse a little more talented than him at the gr.1 level.  Still, he's a first-rate middle distance turfer.

Sham Stakes-

Not sure the quality of this race.  There was no proven stakes horse in the race, so there's no point of reference.  Alphie's Bet certainly looked good in the race, stalking and then pouncing, drawing off nicely to win by over 2.  

Yet another Cal-bred winning a stakes at Santa Anita, Alphie's Bet was coming off a lowly rated maiden win(65 Beyer), but had run 2nd to Caracortado in the 8.5 furlong Cal Breeder's Stakes on opening day.  A common bay, Alphie's Bet is an atheletically built horse, and I do like his tactical speed.  While the pace of the Sham was slow compared to the Big Cap, it was certainly more legit than the Santa Anita Oaks, with a first half in :47 and 3, and 6 furlongs in 1:12 and 1.  Alphie's Bet came home the final 3 furlongs in :36 and 2, and the final eighth in :12 and 1.  While I am not going to rank Alphie's Bet near the top of any Derby list, he is proven at a distance and should not be discounted come Santa Anita Derby time.

Of the also-rans, only runner-up Setsuko appears to be a contender for the Kentucky Derby.  Setsuko is a big, grand looking son of Pleasantly Perfect.  Although he didn't have the athleticism to accelerate with Alphie's Bet, he did eventually put in a solid late run.  A big, strapping horse, Setsuko is not very nimble, and does come across as somehwat of a plodder, but distance should be no issue.  His stamina may allow him to pick up minor awards in some big races.

3rd place finisher, The Program, turned in his typical performance.  Yet, at this time, I feel like we know what we're going to get from The Program, and it's simply not good enough to win big races.  Kettle River and Nextdoorneighbor are wonderful looking horses, but they just didn't run much in the Sham.

Pasadena Stakes-

It's possible the one mile Pasadena Stakes on turf may end up being as important a Derby prep as the Sham.  The Pasadena marked the return of Make Music For Me, a maiden who had run 2nd to Luckin at Lucky in both the gr.2 Best Pal and gr.1 Del Mar Futurity, run 3rd to Lookin at Lucky in the gr.1 Hollywood(CashCall) Futurity, and run 4th in the gr.1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland.  

In the Pasadena, Make Music for Me not only broke his maiden but he won in his first start following a 3 month break.  To make the victory even more impressive, Make Music for Me had to run down a solid stakes performer, the Baffert trained Macias.  This was a promising return by Make Music for Me, and while a restricted one mile turf race is a long way from the Kentucky Derby, it should make him competitive in the Santa Anita Derby or some other prep race.  And we know he's in good hands, given his trainer, Alexis Barba, also trains Sham winner, Alphie's Bet; what a day it was for her!

Macias ran his race in the Pasadena, but it just wasn't good enough.  I think Macias has a nice career ahead, particularly at middle distances and on turf.  However, it doesn't appear that the Kentucky Derby is in his future.        

Who cares if it was the inner track at the Big A, AWESOME ACT deserves respect after that performance. He was in hand the final 1/16, pretty impressive for the first race of the year. I have been one of the biggest supporters of Buddy's Saint on these blogs, but he better be near 100% for the Wood because Awesome Act just moved into my top 5. I am very interested to see how much he can improve off from his Gotham win. I have been waiting for a sleeper to come out of the clouds and enter the triple crown trail. This horse is clearly Grade I caliber, I hope that he is not sold to IEAH, Godolphin, or Jess Jackson.

Misremembered looked like a million bucks in the post parade--the field was very strung out down the backside--evidence of a fast pace--still, the stalker Misremembered won like a nice thing--Oaklawn Park Handicap next? Anyway, I LOVE his sire line: Candy Ride, out of a Quack mare--Candy Ride runs the bestest Pacific Classic and Quack's 1972 Hol Gold Cup was one of the greatest 1 1/4's ever run by a three year old!...Blind Luck! When you're 2-5, you're not supposed to need luck, which is exactly how Bejarano rode her--note the winner was first time Rosario--I got a little bit of Crisp in the Oaks Futures!...also, Alphie's Bet made the Cal Breeders Championship look like some kinda key race, no?--and why not a Derby Contender? In one day, Alexis Barba emerges with two Derby Horses! Six starts--FOUR winners and a second at the meeting for Barba! No Santa Anita cancellation (yesterday) but no turf today (!), so I'm taking a stab at Gulfstream, on their all-turf pick 4--race 8: #1 Salaam Alaykum (12-1): up close v better at Saratoga....race 9: #9 American Cruiser (4-1): take it to the bank!...race 10--#,s 1 Forty Nine Acres (5-1) and #4 Saint Jude (8-1)....finally race #11: #'s 1 Blazen (6-1) and #7 Don'twait Toolong (3-1)--that's a $4 pick four bet, if the 12-1 shot gets the $$ in the first leg I think I gotta chance--of corse, I think a Cal-Bred has a chance to get the Roses this year--a couple of Cal-Breds!    

longway: You can see the will pays on kentuckyderby.com

Coldfacts: Ive said it before, any horse coming from Dubai is a toss in my mind. Mendip wasnt that impressive, only looked that way because of the company. They were crawling up front.

Alphie's Bet ran a decent race in the Sham and the time of 1.48.3 was one of the best 1-1/8M times for 3 year olds this year.  It might be too early to tell if he's a Triple Crown contender, but based on the way that some of the others that were taken more seriously have crashed and burned, I wouldn't discount him.  He's improving every race and he ran a tacticle race yesterday  closing from mid-pack and taking off.  It would be nice if he bi-passed the SA Derby and came east to race either in the Wood Memorial or at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby.

GunBow, Matthew W,

Yes the rain forecast scared a lot of people. But not the 3 of us! LOL

When I left my house, it looked like all hell was going to brake loose but I went anyway and was very glad I did. Some may question the quality of the fields but I love races where there is no real "stand out" horse. When I can make a case for several horses it usually turns out to be a very good race.

Bob Baffert must be on cloud nine. It's one thing to train a Big Cap winner but to breed one and raise him from a foal to a victory in a Gr1, 1 1/4 mile race has to be in a class all by itself.

carolyn,

We are having an El Nino year. More rain than usual. It's not so much how often it rains, it's how much rain comes down all at once. Santa Anita is situated at the foot of the mountains and that area gets more rain then the areas further away. The problem with the track is not the composition but the drainage system at the bottom. There wasn't a problem yesterday because it didn't pour like it did last week and a few weeks prior. California needs this very badly so I'm not really complaining...a drought is not fun either.

LAZMANNICK & COLDFACTS,

You guys are so sharp around here its a good thing I'm an honest poster ... have to keep the standard high (LOL).

Look, I feel Buddy's Saint is a derby contender until otherwise noted. First of all, all of you Dublin band wagon fan have forgotten what he did in the Champagne and Iriquois as a two year old. Mine That Bird did nothing that resembled a derby winner before the first saturday in May. Pyro was highly bet after a horrible bluegrass.

Look, if you want a little insight maybe the BC juvenile might turn out to be a very important race. So far in the Eskendereya and Radiohead have had good starts to there derby campaigns. D'Funnybone won at 7F. Aikenite is pointing to the bluegrass. Noble's promise and Lookin at Lucky are getting ready to start their derby runs after a good Cashcall race. The only horse from that group not doing well is Vale of York.

So having a bad race does not take you out of derby contention. Lets see want happens on April 3 and then judge Buddy's Saint on his derby potential.

Jason- yes they were crawling up front in Mendip's race, which is very typical for synthetic and turf.  You are right in the fact that it is difficult to take a Godolphin horse seriously for the Derby at this time, but I think eventually they will win one.  Mendip has to be proven for class which will be difficult in Dubai.  Not sure Conveyance wants 10 furlongs, but the Sheikh's son is keeping him here in the US, which means he's willing to listen to his trainer.  IMO, Vale of York needs to go to Europe, along with Passion for Gold(?) who has at least won at 10 furlongs.  I would at least give a horse a look if they have already won at 10.

Coldfacts- I don't think you can compare Lammtarra to Mendip.  Two totally different racehorses.  Lammtarra was obviously exceptional and Mendip has not exuded that class yet.  He may develop it but.....

I don't think anybody here is questioning Suroor's ability to train, but Mendip's class.  Lammtarra's breeding was exceptional also, Nijinski II out of Snow Bride by Blushing Groom.  Mendip's breeding doesn't come close to that although it is nice.

LONGWAYTOMAY

I totally agree w/you regarding the lame remark on Blind Luck's race. Some people find any reason to slam a horse WITHOUT THINKING FIRST. Blind luck did nothing wrong yesterday was the rider that didn't do his job.

Hey guys, layoff Bruce.  Horses for Courses, Buddy's 2 for 2  at Aquduct.  

Zookeeper,

    It most certainly been one of those years. DE had a record breaking year for snow, YIKES!

Ranagulzion

I know what you were trying to say.  The field he did face in the BC was top flight in my book.  This guy looks like he is ready to join the party and the best thing is that he made the transition to dirt and actually looked like he improved.  LOL

Curlin, Wayne is winning and on the board at a good pace relatively high %.

Nakatani is the logical choice, like Wayne said. He's got the hot hand at OP, he has experience in the big races and his agressive style may be what Dublin needs. Big picture thinking here.

Jason:

Your "nemesis" Win Willy got the set-up he needs and looked pretty good winning the Razorback yesterday. Like I said with Ron the Greek a few weeks back, being the "Next Win Willy" isn't the worst thing.  You give horses like Win Willy and Ron the Greek solid paces to run at, and they will win some stakes races.  The problem is, they are completely dependent on a fast pace, and most races do not produce the pace meltdown they require.  

Win Willy clearly likes Oaklawn, and should be viewed as a legit contender for the $500k Oaklawn Cap'.  Most likely, there will be one or two horses in the Oaklawn Cap that will have the tactical speed and versatility to get the jump on Win Willy and then hold him off.  However, if the field comes up loaded with mediocre speed types(there's not much depth in the handicap division), Win Willy just might capture the win purse.

As for the other stakes race run at Oaklawn on Saturday, I can't believe I wasn't aware of the Azeri.  I was so focused on the races I would see on-track at Santa Anita, that the only out-of-state stakes races I had looked at were the Razorback and Gotham.  What bugs me is that Freedom Star is exactly the type of synthetic-to-dirt horse that I have been touting.  

Freedom Star has been carving out some fast fractions in graded stakes competition, running a strong 3rd in the 8.5 furlong gr.2 El Encino(just nosed out for the place spot by Stardom Bound) and then a fading 5th in the 9 furlong gr.2 La Canada.

At Santa Anita, Freedom's Star's greatest weapon, her speed, was actually somewhat of a handicap; the fact she was able to last as long as she did in the El Encino and La Canada, fighting against the track profile, was testimony to her talent.  After the La Canada, I remember thinking that Baffert should send her East and run her on dirt where her speed could be a more decisive and positive factor.

And then she runs yesterday and I completely missed her!  In the 8.5 furlong gr.3 Azeri, Freedom Star went right to the front and then, unlike at Santa Anita, just ran her competition into the ground, drawing away by almost 4.  Behind her were solid dirt horses War Echo and Just Jenda.  California synth horses have been winning all over the country, but Oaklawn has traditionally been a very friendly place to Cali shippers.  The year Zenyatta won the Apple Blossom, Tiago and Heatseeker ran 1-2 in the Oaklawn Cap and Gayego won the Arkansas Derby.  Easing my frustration for having missed Freedom Star, however, is that apparently many other people also correctly predicted that Freedom Star would excel on dirt, given she was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.

An interesting note: Win Willy's Razorback time was 1:43 and 4, while Freedom Star's Azeri time was 1:44.  Freedom Star is a nice horse, but if Win Willy is going to be an elite handicap horse, he will need to run considerably faster than her.

As for the Gotham, I came away very impressed with Awesome Act. I had been impressed with how Awesome Act looked when I saw him on Breeder's Cup day, and have been noticing that Breeder's Cup participants, from both the Juvenile and Juvi Turf, have been running well in the preps.  It appeared to me that Awesome Act won the Gotham with something left, and I believe he should be tough in the Wood.  Of course, he will need to be better because the competition will be stiffer.  For his dirt debut and having run immediately off the plane, it was a very encouraging effort.  I would have to rank him ahead of the stakes winners at Santa Anita, Alphie's Bet and Make Music for Me.

Gunbow: Win Willy is not my nemisis. I never had any problem with him, he's a nice horse. If you recall, I only said he wasnt the next Derby winner. Remember that guy, I forget his, Bob or something, who was touting him and I told him I'd hold his money? That dude disappeared from this blog, thankfully.

My only problem is that these horses win one prep race and all of sudden they are the next Derby winner. Alphie's Bet is the new one this week. You have to know how to weed through some of them.

JASON

On point,I agree. Too many on here and in general change their minds every five seconds.

Jason,

The policy of tossing horses for reasons without foundation should not be maintained by a person of your knowledge. There are too many examples that would render your position baseless. Let me reiterate, the only reason a Dubai trained horse has not won the Kentucky Derby is because all that have been entered to date have not been good enough. If China Visit and Regal Ransom could finish 6th & 8th respectively, there is no reason a horse with better ability cannot win. If the Dubai trained horses were finishing last on each occasion I would support your position. The fact that they have finished ahead of a significant number of US trained horses, suggest that you are stubbornly sticking to your Dubai toss policy.  I am confident that you will reassess your position.

Your response to my comparison of Denis Of Cork & Mendip totally ignored the fact that Denis Of Cork came from last to gain the third slot. The pace in Mendip’s last was in fact slow. Does this mean that Mendip is slow? Certainlynot! There was no need to set fast fractions when the jockey has a ton of horse in hand just waiting to pounce..  Let me take you back to Canonero II. His fastest 5F work before the derby were compared to that of a $5K claimer. In fact, at the pre derby party for the owners whose horses had made the derby cut, the connections of Canonero II were ridiculed because of his slow works. It is reported that the connection had to borrow feed for a colt that spent almost an entire day on a stuck on plane. The trip from Dubai is pale in comparison to some of the adversities experienced by past derby winners.

Mendip appears to be better than Denis Of Cork. If Denis Of Cork was capable of closing from last  for third, Mendip with his tactical speed can win  the derby.

NB: I still Love Yale Of York.

Coldfacts: I'll hold your bets on Mendip and Vale of York. Please let me. Just let me know how much. Thanks in advance.

with all the talk here on mendip requested a derby price on him at an online book

they put him up at 14-1

i don't think so...

Jason:

I was just teasing you about Win Willy.  I thought others would have beaten me to the punch and given you a little ribbing.

If you are like me and already dubious about Beyer figs for synthetics, the figs for Saturday's stakes races at Santa Anita are not going to inspire confidence.

The Santa Anita Oaks received a Beyer of 82.  The Sham got a 86.

I'm not surprised the Oaks only got an 82; I was expecting something low, and had given it a preliminary figure of 85.  The pace was absurdly slow, so even though they finished with strong closing fractions, it was not going to compensate for the first 6 furlongs.

What I have a problem with is that the Beyer for the Sham was only 4 points higher than the SA Oaks.  Given both races were run just a half hour apart on the same track, track variant should not be a variable in understanding the difference between the two races' figures; final time should be the only factor.

The final time for the 8.5 furlong SA Oaks was 1:43 and 2 while the final time for the 9 furlong Sham was 1:48 and 3.  Even if we assume Crisp could have run another sixteenth in 6 seconds flat, her 9 furlong time would only be 1:49 and 2, 4/5ths of a second or 7 Beyer points inferior to the Sham.

Clearly, Team Beyer either gave the SA Oaks extra points for its fast closing fractions or penalized the Sham, but it's not like the final fractions for the Sham were slow; the last 3 furlongs of the Sham were run in :36 and 2, with a final eighth of :12 and 1.

If we assume Crisp would have run an extra sixteenth in a more realistic :6 and 3, her final time of 1:50 would have been 7/5ths slower than the Sham.  That translates into a 12 point difference, the difference I arrived at when I estimated the figures last night.

So, if Crisp ran an 82 in the SA Oaks, Alphie's Bet should have been given a 94.  Or, if Alphie's Bet truly ran an 86, then Crisp should have been given a 74.  Either the fig for the SA Oaks was given a "boost", or the fig for the Sham was downgraded( and molded to fit pre-race form and previous Beyers).

If I had to guess, I would say Team Beyer did the latter.  Using the 10 furlong time of the SA Handicap, 2:00 and 1, as another point of comparison, the Sham's 1:48 and 3 would translate into a 2:01 and 3.  Misremembered was given a Beyer of 104 for the Big Cap, so a 2:01 and 3 time would be about 11 Beyer points lower, 93.

So when using the other two main track stakes from Saturday, the fig for the Sham comes up as either 93 or 94.  It's not unheard for Team Beyer to downgrade a race if the original figure doesn't fit with prior form.  Given that Alphie's Bet was coming off a 65 and had a career high of 78, I can understand why Team Beyer would have been hesitant to give the Sham a 93.  However, we're talking about often times rapidly improving young 3 year olds, and such a jump is not unheard of.

A famous case in which Team Beyer devalued a race because the original fig was so incredibly high in comparison to prior form was the 1989 Hollywood Futurity.  Grand Canyon won the Futurity by over 6, running the mile in a record time for juveniles, 1:33 flat.  Grand Canyon already had established solid stakes form, winning the Norkolk and Kentucky Jockey Club and running 2nd in the BC Juvenile.  However, none of the figures for those races were anywhere close to the preliminary figure Team Beyer gave the Hollywood Futurity, a 120.  What made the 120 figure appear to be even more ridiculous is that the runner-up, Farma Way, was an unproven horse from the Midwest and 3rd place runner, Silver Ending, was a $3,000 yearling.  

To better fit prior form, Team Beyer(as Beyer himself wrote in one of his books) downgraded the fig for the H Futurity to 108.

Of course, we now know that Farma Way turned out be a serious racehorse, winning the Big Cap and Pimlico Special while running off a string of Beyers between 115 and 122.  Silver Ending also had success following the H Futurity, winning the gr.1 Pegasus, gr.2 Arkansas Derby, and gr.3 El Camino Real Derby at age 3.

To make the 120 figure look even more legit in retrospect, older males ran a mile on the same card in 1:34 and 3, 7/5ths or about 12-14 Beyer points slower than the H Futurity.  The winner of that allowance race, Criminal Type, would be 1990 Horse of the Year(with Beyers consistently between 110 and 120).

To finish off my critique of synth Beyers, the 104 fig for the Big Cap seems too low.  The Strub received a 104, and the Big Cap seemed to be a stronger race.  Misremembered and Neko Bay finished over 2 lengths clear of Dakota Phone who was, in turn, over 3 lenths clear of 4th place runner Jeranimo.  With a 104 for Misremembered, only 3 horses in the field ran higher than a 95 in the Big Cap; that just doesn't seem right.

It almost seems like Team Beyer punished the Big Cap because the final quarter wasn't run in sub-24.  Unlike many other stakes races this meet with final eights in under 12 and final quarters under 24, Misrembered took :24 and 3 to finish his final quarter.  But unlike  most of these other stakes, the Big Cap had a very legit pace, with 6 furlongs in 1:10 and change.  For once a Santa Anita stakes produced early fractions comparable to a dirt race and it still only translates into a 104?  

And it's not like Misrembered finished slowly; a 24 and 3 final quarter is darn good for a 10 furlong race with a 1:10 and change split.  And Misrembered's final time was over a second faster than Einstein's time in last year's Big Cap and a couple ticks faster than Zenyatta's BC Classic time (on a day the track was also producing quick times;  Zenyatta received a 112).

My preliminary fig for Misremembered's Big Cap was somewhere in the range of 107-112, with an absolute low of 105.  If we take the 104 fig at face value, Misremembered basically hasn't improved since winning the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park last summer, and that makes little sense.  Misremembered beat a field of 13 other horses, almost all of which had been trained to peak on Big Cap day.  The pace for the Big Cap was strong, even for a dirt race, and yet the middle fractions remained within the :24 and change range, something that typically doesn't happen for 10 furlong dirt races with a similar pace.

The 104 fig implies that if a horse were to have run a 121 figure in the Big Cap(the fig Quality Road earned for the Donn), it would have needed to post a final time of 1:58 flat(2 and 1/5th seconds = 17 Beyer points)! Does that seem ridiculous to anyone else? I've seen enough races at Santa Anita this meet to know that there's not a horse out there that can run 1:58 on Pro-Ride.

And that leads into a secondary question.  Does Team Beyer use times from the 2008 Santa Anita winter meet for the track variant.  The current Pro-Ride was only put in prior to the Fall 2008 meet, with the 2008 winter meet having been run on Cushion Track(or poly?). The times from the 2008 winter meet on the Cushion Track were ridiculously fast. I know for certain the times from then are used for the track records.  If they are also used for Beyer figs, then the times now being produced on Pro-Ride are going to continue to look slow in comparison, and the Beyers will be too low.

Taking Misrembered's 104 as legitimate, it would translate into a 110 or 111 dirt figure, if form was perfectly translated.  And given my belief Misremembered is better on dirt than Pro-Ride, I can easily see him running a 111 on dirt.  That would make him competitive with Summer Bird's 2009 form and with Quality Road prior to the Donn.  If Quality Road comes back to Earth the rest of the year of regresses away from Gulfstream, I think Misremembered can give him a fight.

Consider Jason that all we really have so far this year is one big race from each contender. With most of the trainers going with two preps, it's all a crap shoot so far.

All the old rules are out the window. You don't necessarily have to have a strong 2YO foundation and certainly not a stakes placing at 2. You can win from more than five weeks out. You can win with two preps. Hell, you can even win from the 20 hole.

Jason:

Just a little information for some of the newer fans.

‘Thoroughbred’ provides introduction

to horse racing.

Thoroughbred will premiere on Monday on KET at 8 p.m. EST. KET expects many Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) channels to pick up the broadcast, but those details are being worked out.

“We don’t want the film to look or sound stupid for people who really know the business. We want to have credibility there. But really, the audience is much larger and broader than that,” Wagner said. “We’ve said from the beginning that this is a film for people who watch the Kentucky Derby and that’s all they know about horse racing. That’s the approach we’ve taken.”

Check you're local PBS channel TV listing's to see if they are showing it.

Footlick,

I think you have mired my post. The mention of Lammtarra’s story was point out to posters who are negative about Buddy’s Saint chances of winning the derby that exceptional horses can overcome what appears to be insurmountable adds and win. Buddy’s saint will not be entering the derby off a 302 days layoff. Lammtarra was not mentioned to support any point regarding Mendip. I just took the opportunity to point out the amazing preparation & training feat carried out by the Dubai based trainer. Surely an exceptional horse from Dubai can win the derby in spite of the views of the naysayers.

No one knows the true ability of Mendip and I am not implying that he is a world beater. The Storm Cat sire line has not had a lot of Derby success. In fact, neither he nor any of his sons & grandsons has sired a derby winner. Storm Cat has sired a runner up and a third place finisher. The only stallion associated with Storm Cat to have had a derby top three finisher is Harlans Holiday. He appears to have sired a nice colt in Mendip.  Harlans Holiday was quality horse who won multiple Gl races and was runner up in the Dubai World Cup to Moon Ballad. Giant’s Causeway a son of Storm Cat presently has the #1 contender in Eskendereya. Could we be focusing on the wrong Storm Cat line offspring?

"My only problem is that these horses win one prep race and all of sudden they are the next Derby winner."...JS

I don't know, Jason.  Odysseus won one allowance race, and you climbed right on his band wagon...so perhaps it's just not fair to criticize others who do the same.

Me...I'm still on the same horses.  I've just added Mendip because I liked the way he ran his race.  I still believe in Buddy, Dublin, Ron, and Dave.  I need to see the other horses do more including Eskendereya. I think Backtalk has the speed, but not the focus...yet.

Jason,

 I was wondering what you did with pool 2. Did you make many bets? I played alot of exactas with horses that I am confident will be in the gate on May 1. In my opinion, I think that Lookin at Lucky at 9-1 could be a steal. IF he goes to Arkansas and IF he moves up on the dirt like Baffert thinks he will, then he will most likely be your raceday favorite. I think he could be bet down to the range of 3-1 or 7-2. I didn't put any win bets on him, but I used him in several exactas. I am still on the Eskendereya bandwagon but I think I will get better odds on the day of the race. I'll explain that reasoning once we get closer to the Florida Derby. Right now I see that race setting up perfectly for a certain horse to steal upfront. I know you don't think he can get the distance but I'm pretty sure he can.

To put it mildly, Buddy Saints reaction to adversity was not that of a potential Triple Crown winner. Contrast the horse's reaction to that of Afleet Alex in the Preakness or even I Want Revenge's fight back against repeated adversity in last year's Wood Memorial. Having said that, after a slow break and Lezcano's failed attempt to shoot through a hole to get the horse near the pace on a speed-biased race track was it surprising that we saw no more out of the horse through the remainder of the race ?

you cant give up on buddys saint so quickly. he had a bad trip and never could catch up. he was sore. he has been training superb all year long, he's fit and he lvoes aqueduct, i think he'll do great in the wood, and again stamp himself as a ky derby contendor.

Slew: You have to pick someone at the top. I like Odysseus basically by default. I haven't been wowed by anyone. But my point was, Im not going to put every new prep winner in my top 10. It's too easy to do that.

longway: I never made it over to Keeneland yesterday. I was going to play some exactas too. Probably would have boxed 4 or 5. I agree. If Lookin At Lucky wins this weekend, 9-1 will be pretty good.

An 86 Beyer for the Sham shows what a SHAM Beyers on synthetics are beginning to be.

I thought an 86 was a bit high. One of the most suspect fields in a March Derby prep Ive seen in a long while.

"Slew: You have to pick someone at the top...."  JS

Jason...In "Not your ordinary top 10" you put him at number 1.  I'd say that qualifies as a bandwagon, after only an allowance...let alone a Derby prep.

"1. Odysseus: The most visually impressive 3-year-old I have seen up this point, and that is why he makes the top of my list. I know he's only won a maiden sprint and a first-level allowance, and hasn't faced anything yet..."

Now if #1 isn't high enough, I don't know what is.

I was simply trying to point out that when someone else does exactly the same as you have done...why criticize them?  I read your blog, don't always agree with you, but do enjoy reading what you have to say.  Sometimes, however, the acid retorts come a little too quickly with little consideration for what you may have previously written.

However...you keep writing...I'll keep reading.  Have a good one. :)

I still don't see how can an 86 Beyer for a race run in 1.48.3 be too high?  The field wasn't that suspect and Alphie's Bet ran a very decent second to Caracortado while still a maiden.  Maybe the horse might end up being a flash but one thing I've seen over the years is that when a maiden runs well in a stakes race it usually turns out to be a decent sort.  Also, the Sham winner the past few years has turned out to be a pretty good horse.

Who knows what may happen. Look at Barbaro. He came off a long 8 weeks from his other race and still won. Horseracing is crazy like that.

Slew: Bandwagon? Ok, if that's what you want to call it. He impressed me more than any other 3Yo so far, what can I say. Was it a "bandwagon" pick when I wrote this two years ago after an allowance win?

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../Making-a-Big-Move-For-the-Derby.aspx

Jason:

Will you be doing all three of Derby prep race's on THS this week?

GunBow,

As usual, I really appreciated your comment on the Sham and the speed figure the Beyer team gave its winner. (While holding their nose!) Thank you for taking the time to try and make sense of it. Open minded people, by now, have to realize that something is very fishy about how they evaluate races run on synthetics. Those with closed minds will continue to dismiss the facts that you point out. Oh well! I am listening and many others also, I'm sure. Thank you!

hello Guys, why the fuss, things do

happen, what happened to Buddy's

saint, have happened before, so the trainer is right!! re-group

and fix things.. Buddy's Saint is still, and will be a contender like

the others, so you all relax,he will run in front of eskendereya!!!in the Derby mr.Bruce, I confident you,and the Jock Lezcano, stop crying people.....

ZOOKEEPER,

Yes indeed I join you in saluting the astute Beyer analysis of Gun Bow. His posts are top class.

GUN BOW,

Excellent work Bro. Keep on keeping them honest.

Jason, relax.  I simply commented on your comment about people jumping on a horse after just one race.  Everybody does it.  You do it,(Odysseus) I do it, (Dublin)everyone commenting here does it...(Eskendereya).  As far as 2008 and Big Brown goes, I was pulling for Eight Bells.  We're all looking for different things in a race.  I'm still looking for a decent Triple Crown winner.  What I really find odd is that so many people believe they have all the stats and a perfect system for predicting a winner...and yet...if that were so....wouldn't they be rolling in all the $$ they made, and not really have the time to argue with everyone else?

Enjoy your day...I'll keep reading and throwing my opinions in the bucket with everyone else.  Aren't we all just looking for that one magnificent Champion?  I love horses; I love to see them run.  Can't wait to see more!

I like Life is Sweet in the Dubai World Cup against Gio Ponte.  She screams 1 1/4 and in her Hollywood Gold Cup against males...she was the only one making up ground.  

Let's not forget that Blind Luck has already won 3 Grade 1's.  

I don't care what the Beyer # was, Alphies Bet is an improving son of a son of Storm Cat--just like Caracortado/ just like Eskendareya--Alphies Bet made up five lengths in his maiden win--in the last 1/4, going four wide--the 1/4 time was 23 3/5, meaning he's kicking in 22 and some (small) change!...gets seven weeks of long workouts--comes back bad'n'big and while it wasn't a strong field, he did it the right way--he's on the improve-- he's got enough size/weight to handle this--right now, if I've got Alphies Bet I am gettin' some serious Derby Fever!

Fillies at 1 1/4 v older males--highly unlikely for Life Is Sweet/cuz it's just highly unlikely a filly can do that...like Richards Kid and Gio Ponti....

Coldfacts- I didn't think I mired it, I just pointed out that I thought there was a difference in class between the two Suroor trained horses.  I feel Lammtarra was always high class and I'm not sure Mendip has shown it yet.  I'm not sure you can compare what Suroor might be able to do with Mendip by using Lammtarra as an example, that's all.  I didn't mean it as a criticism or a rebuttal, just an opinion of mine.  As I've said before, Godolphin will win a Derby.  We just don't know when.  If Mendip is the one, then he will be.  If he isn't, then he won't.  As you said, they haven't had horses that were good enough yet.  I feel their best two year old was Passion for Gold, and he is dirt bred and he's already won at 10 furlongs.  But the Derby doesn't seem to be in his plans since it looks like he's going to be their Epson Derby horse.  I personally would like to see him have a crack at our Derby.

Coldfacts,

Congrats. You just about said it all on Mar 7. If a horse is fit, racing the horse more often does not make the horse fitter. I believe this is the reason more and more trainers are using fewer preps. They now have the courage of their convictions and are not worried about being second-guessed.

Some racing commentators keep treating coincidences as causes.That is the reason they keep referring to the number of preps a horse has run.

If a horse can win the Wood, or the Florida Derby off a single prep, it can win the Kentucky derby off a single prep. It is just another horse race.

Jason,

I took a trip down memory lane and clicked on the link to the blog you wrote 2 yrs ago about big brown. What I found very interesting was draynay's comments. After listening for two years how he "discovered" big brown it is clear by his comments you opened the eyes of many including him. Fast forward to this year and your column on Christine Daae. You were the one who brought attention to her and once again draynay followed in your footsteps. I see a pattern here, the nay nay let's you discover the "hidden" horses and then he jumps on your bandwagon and touts himself as a knowitall. At least it shows he looks uo to you. I'm not sure I'd want a puppy dog like that following me around waiting to pick up any scraps I drop for him but at least he's flattering your ability to find talent.

Matthew W

Glad to see your take on Alphie's Bet.  He's improving every race and it looks like there is more improvement to come.  I wish they would ship him east for a race like the Wood or the Illinois Derby, something on dirt, to see how he responds.  LOL

Matthew W....Life Is Sweet is a mare at 5.  And you think a 5 year old mare can't beat the boys?  Did you watch the BCC?  It's been done. Zenyatta closed over Gio Ponti without breaking a sweat.  

A filly/mare defeating a G-1 or equivalent field of males at 1-1/4M on dirt has only been accomplished twice in the past fourty years.  Zenyatta was the last to do it.  Before that it was Princessnesian in the late 60's.  If Life is Sweet wins this race it would be a herculean accomplishment, it is that difficult.  Regarding her Hollywood Gold Cup, it took her a while to get over that race.  What I find strange is that she would only have been assigned 113 lbs. if she would have lined up against Zenyatta on Saturday.

JerseyBoy, Seriously????

St. T made it 0-42 for the girls winning the Santa Anita Big Cap.  I was there the day Bayakoa finished last in that event.  

I can't believe what I'm reading.  Some of you think these are automobiles?  They're not.  

They are living breathing magnificent creatures.  Bruce Levine is one of the best conditioners in the business.  His record as a trainer speaks for itself.  

Has it dawned on you yet that Buddy's Saint came out of the FOY hurt?  He said as much in his interview.  He missed training.  His ankles swelled up.  He had no choice but to back off.  

The first Sat in May is not his primary concern.  The welfare of Buddy's Saint a very talented colt is more important.  I would hate to think what would have happened to him in the hands of the much hyped PR trainers.

Aren't you aware that the Big Name PR Trainers get about one-hundred {number of babies} million dollar two-year olds each year?  

At Derby time they may have just a few left standing that they haven't broken down.  All it takes is just one to fleece the millionaire owners for the next year.

Give Levine your praise not your scorn.  Wake up!

Tim G;

Yes seriously. Coldfacts has it nailed.  If two horses(Lammtarra and Shaamit)  can win the 12-fur Epsom Derby without a prep, a horse can win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs after one prep. All it takes is a trainer with conviction and a talented horse.

(I notice quite a few people are talking now about  Awesome Act, trained by Noseda).

To say it can't be done is to say US trainers cannot do what Europeans do routinely.

Zookeeper + Ranagulzion:

Thanks for the support.  Keep posting as well.

And Zookeeper, good work over on the Liebman blog.

"It is just another horse race.

JerseyBoy 08 Mar 2010 11:18 PM"

Well after this comment, anything you say? To an American Owner/trainer is totally laughable.

Gotta love all the expert analysis on these blogs.

JASON,

I think that Trainer Bruce Levine could be making a tactical blunder in pointing Buddy's Saint to the Wood Memorial instead of staying in Florida for the Florida Derby. Here are the reasons:

1) It is better for the horse to minimise the stress and frequency of travel

2)The six weeks between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby gives more wiggle room to adjust if the horse comes out of the next race needing another soft prep to be really sharp for the K/Derby or to recover if he gives a huge effort, being wound up to compensate for his FOY fiasco.

3)It makes a lot of tactical sense to measure your chief opponent which happens to be Eskekdereya before the K/Derby so that they know what they need to do to be competitive.

4)It is better to find out sooner rather than later whether he is overmatched going up against the horse everyone has to beat, Eskendereya, so that the best future path for the colt can be planned.

4)What will he gain from shipping to New York for the Wood that he wouldn't get from staying in Florida seeing that the main objective is to win the K/Derby?

What do you think Jason?  

GunBow,

Thanks! but it's nothing compared to yours.

This has nothing to do with the KD, but I don't know where else to post this:

Have any of you seen the Sarah Lane's Oates Stakes @ Fair Ground last Saturday? What the heck was that? Ladyzarbridge, a 3yr old Louisiana bred filly ran and won in the most unusal fashion. It was incredible. She ran in the middle of the turf track leading all the way and winning by 7 3/4 lenghts. Is she the female version of Presious Passion or what?

LAZMANNIK.  Fillies beating Grade 1 boys at 1 1/4 on the dirt.

Genuine Risk

Winning Colors

Did you mean "Older Males?"

Slew.  I kind of felt bad for Gio Ponti.  The jockey glanced right a little but it was too late!  

Jason,

 I read that Beautician shipped with Noble's Promise to Oaklawn and is running in the Honeybee.

Albarado is up. Should be a great weekend for racing.

Hello racing analysts,we all share

the same common objectives..we all love Horse racing..however we also

share different opinions, which makes the love of this game special,

it's like attending university with the knowledge we acquire,and then the real actions are, when we put the knowledge into reason, and then comes the final results..

Ranagulzion: I think its a timing issue for Levine. He wont be ready for the Florida Derby.

tcc: We'll be doing the San Rafael and Tampa Derby on THS. The Rebel doesnt draw until Thursday afternoon. We tape on Thursday morning.

Longway: As far as Beautician, Im also looking forward to her debut.

Gunbow.  With Lookin at Lucky now sporting French-Cup blinkers do ya want to go above your +-6 standard error of measurement for synthetic to dirt transition in the Rebel?  

Jason:

Thanks for update on THS for this week.

Jason:

So far,the projected field for the Rebel.

Lookin At Lucky

Noble's Promise

Dublin

Cardiff Giant

Uh Oh Bango

Pleasant Storm

Looks like a top class field tcc

Householder:

I know about Winning Colors and Genuine Risk.  They both had big efforts, but that's not what I meant.  What I meant to say was older males.  Those two defeated 3 year olds.  If you look back you'll see that it's only been done twice at least since about 1968 or 1969.  I think you have to go back to Two Lea in the 1952 Hollywood Gold Cup to see when it was done before Princessnesian.  LOL

Yes I saw Zenyatta do it--Life Is Sweet is not on her planet.

Ranagulzion, besides the timing of the Florida Derby, Levine is getting his horse off from the hard speed favoring race track called Gulfstream Park. I remember how Coronado's Quest was not fond of Gulfstream. Bribon is another horse that does not like Gulfstream. Sometimes it is the racing surface and sometimes it can be the hot sunshine in FL. With Buddy's Saint, I think the best thing to do is to get him out of FL asap. He had no real reason to be there in the first place, he is a NY horse.

Householder-I didn't feel at all bad for Gio Ponti.  He's a class horse with a classic style.  Being able to get and maintain the lead for a while was a great effort.  He ran his best race; Zenyatta was just better.  I really did feel bad for one of my favorites, Einstein, who hung in for a while but then dropped back.  He's been a spectacular competitor for years, and halfway through 2009 he started to lose a little of his edge...but he always brought his best game to any race.  I think his game starting slipping in the Arlington Million when Gio Ponti took home the prize.

I heard they've been thinking Ky. Derby with Odysseus before he even made his debut last yr. He's lightly raced and it seems like they've let him mature gradually before throwing him in against more seasoned/accomplished opponents. Good move on his shipping to TB and getting away from speed favoring GP after gamely breaking his maiden there in his 3yo debut. He should continue to improve in the TB Derby and will likely have another prep(Wood Memorial?,Illinois Derby?)before the Ky Derby. That's 5 races under his belt before they release the Beast the 1st Sat. in May. I'm all in.

Jason:

When will your next Not Your Ordinary Top 10 be listed?

Carlos: I just talked to Sanan regarding Odysseus. He will likely go to the Wood after the TB Derby.

tcc: Im going to do another top 10 on Tuesday. Im hoping my No. 1 and 2 will remain the same.

Jason,

I've just set my reminder for the Live Blog on Friday. I really like those although the pace is a little fast for me. With everything happening this weekend this Live Blog should be LIVE indeed!

LAZMANNIK.  Thanks I thought this was what you meant.  I too thought Zen's 1 1/4 was one for the "records."  

SLEW.  I must have been behind you at the window.  I had a Gio Ponti/Einstein box.  I didn't think Zen could go 1 1/4 against the boys.  The Big Cap is now 0-42 for girls at 1 1/4.  It was the first time I had bet against her.

Tcc.  "The Rebel List."  Are we looking for this year's Win Willy?  I see two grade stakes winners on synthetics and a horse that couldn't beat Bafferts "B" squad.

I like the "Smart Stike" side of things over Cuvee (at some point NP will hit the Carson City wall.

I think we are one "bad luck" race away from an undefeated 2 year old champion.   If Baffert has L at L cranked to 80% he should take these.  With all the rain and missed training this is a big "If."  With the Arkansas Derby in mind, L at L needs to just run well not win.  

Jason:  Good looking out seems logical,do I sense a Q & A interview w/Satish on here?...if not,did he confirm what I heard regarding Albertrani thinking Derby with Odysseus from day one?

CARLOS IN CALI,

I see you've abandoned Pepi Knows for Odysseus (LOL). I hope that you stick with this "beast" 'til he gets blown away by Eskendereya, Super Saver and Rules at Churchill Downs.

Jason:

Grade III Tampa Bay Derby Entries

Post

Horse

S

M/E

Wt

Jockey

Trainer

1 Uptowncharlybrown (KY)

C

L

116

D. Centeno

A. Seewald

2 Tuvia's Force (KY)

C

L

116

J. Lezcano

N. Zito

3 Gleam of Hope (KY)

C

L

122

W. Martinez A. Reinstedler

4 Slammy Boy (KY)

C

L

116 V. Lebron A. Reinstedler

5 Schoolyard Dreams (KY)

C

L

116 J. Rose D. Ryan

6 Super Saver (KY)

C

L

122 R. Dominguez T. Pletcher

7 Odysseus (KY)

C

L

116 R. Maragh T. Albertrani

Uptowncharlybrown adds blinkers

Jason:

San Felipe Stakes entries.

1 Stephen's Got Hope

2 Interactif

3 Erbeia

4 American Lion

5 Sidney's Candy

6 Dave in Dixie

7 Caracortado

Carlos: I talked to him for a while about Odysseus. There are quotes from the interview in my TB Derby preview, which was recently posted. Yes, they liked him from the start, but went slow with him. I think he will run huge on Saturday.

Jason:

Re: San Felipe Stks.

You will have some choosing to do,

as you have mentioned previously you liked Interactif and your recent top 10 list you have Caracortado #2.

Just saying hello! maybe we all should await all the prep races

to be run between March-April, and then we all can start to choose our selections for this years Kentucky Derby 2010! reason is for me..most of the entrants will definately have to run between now

and say the first week in April, as then the Derby is the first day

of may, so April being a short Month, all pretenders and contenders will have to step up, or otherwise step-out..I really cannot say anything now about which horse I will root for,it's too early, as I have not yet seen half of the field perform since last year, and I refuse to bandwagon any horse at this time as some clever trainer will unleash a gift wrapped prize, and I just dont know who will it be!!

however, I know that it wont be a wire Job, so all those analysts who are bandwagonning a leader.. guess what! a few trainers told me they want a front runner to use as a rabbit, so they can get the pace to stalk and run him down into the ground!! so I am curious,

I have a few of those trainers with those kind of horses, who will run big on Derby Day, so just be careful not to get swallowed into the trainer who think he can wire the 2010 Derby, I hope this did not break the hearts of those guys who believe they have already seen the 2010 kentucky Derby winner

take this as a lesson to be learned"there is an old saying, you can run, but you cannot hide"

Jason:  Your TB Derby preview article and subsequent tidbits confirmed my observations re: Odysseus. Plus,Albertrani is patient and runs his horses thru their allowances,never rushing them,it's his M.O. I also think he'll run huge this weekend & Street Sense's track/stakes record will be in jeopardy,IMO.

Sounds like Pletcher is not concerned w/the fact that his Derby hopefuls are up-on-the-lead types. That's fine for the preps,but the Ky.Derby is a whole new animal.

Ranagulzion:  Peppi Knows?..lol,I merely stated that he'd win the Whirlaway(which he did @ 8-1 you're welcome),never did I mention him as a Derby horse. I've been on Odysseus since I saw his TB Downs race live and even posted my thoughts about it on Haskin's Derby Dozen the day after(check for yourself). Maybe you're referring to Ron The Greek who I still think will run big if he participates.

Watch how Odysseus separates himself from your Super Saver down the stretch this Saturday,... and Eskendereya/Rule will run each other into the ground if they meet in the Fla.Derby,all but dashing any hope for your 'Todd squad' TC sweep,LOL.  ....shalom in the home!

WINWINWIN,

Sorry to disappoint you but its too late for you to be a heart breaker 'cause we've already spotted the Derby winner ...just waitin' until the Florida Derby to be sure of whether we have the next Triple Crown winner on our hands. Nevertheless, please don't be discouraged ... continue to enjoy the ride.

I'll be keeping an eye on Backtalk.  He's a speed horse; I just don't know if he's got the focus.  He's training at the Fair Grounds....think he's pointing toward Lousiana Derby preview day.

Some 3 year olds there are turning in really nice works.  I still hope Mendip comes to the Ky Derby; he certainly impressed me.  And Dave in Dixie should be fun to watch...just may pass Caracortado next time out.  I'm very anxious to see LAL run in the Rebel, and check out how he'll do.

Jason,

 I was wondering if you could hook me up with a personal interview with Ernie Paragallo. I only need about five minutes in a private setting.

LONGWAYTOMAY

I'll second that.

CARLOS in CALI,

The Tampa Bay Derby is a very interesting race on paper but Super Saver is going to show that the Todd Squad elite stalkers are in a different stratosphere from the competition when the gates open. Odysseus is a promising colt and I too admire Albertrani's approach since the days of Bernadini but like so many of the AP Indy family Odysseus will likely be 'behind the eighth ball' come Derby day. I think that Albertrani will see on Saturday that the Preakness is more timely for him in oreder to compete with the fearsome Todd Squad led by Eskendereya, Super Saver and Rule. Uptowncharlybrown should outkick Odysseus up the lane for second without threatening the out of class Super Saver.

You haven't commented on the Rebel stakes but I am looking for Noble's Promise to capture this one. I see him taking charge turning for home and repelling the stretch runs of Dublin and Looking At Lucky.

In the San Felipe Caracortado should again prevail on the Pro-Ride but beware of The Todd Squad Derby sleeper called Interactif.  If Awesome Act's Gotham performance can guide us about the quality of last year's Juvenile Turf graduates then Interactif must be very dangerous in here.

draynay,

Go to the Bloodhorse "beyond the blinkers" blog and "buy a derby hat,save a horse" where you'll find a pink derby hat that will go great with any pink dress you choose for this years Ky. Derby. Hey you'll even be doing some good for racing as the proceeds go to a great cause. Don't forget to take alot of pics of you decked out all pretty in pink courtesy of Zenyatta's one for the ages win in last years Br. Cup Classic. We are all anxiously waiting to see some shots of you all in your glory.

Longwaytomay:  I hear you!

JaSON: Paragallo is an excellent example for naming a horse "I Want Revenge".  

Can anyone tell me whats happening with Laus Deo

Hercraig: No works since Jan. 18 for Laus Deo. Obviously, some kind of health problem.

TB Derby) I think Odysseus will keep improving,he'll be in the catbird seat throughout & take this one going away. Super Saver is a talented confirmed front runner,but this will be his first start in 4months and he should come-up short especially if the track is heavier than usual(rain?). Plus,he won't get an easy lead in here. Uptowncharlybrown needs to kick it up a notch & Schoolyard Dreams does also.

Rebel)  The 2yo Champ L'at Lucky will run good enough to win off the 4month lay-off cuz' he's that classy.Dirt will not be a problem & the added blinkers will keep him on his toes. I think Dublin will bounce big time in here because of his long,sustained run in his comeback race last out,and his recent blazing works might be too much too soon.We'll see. Noble's Promise couldn't beat L' at Lucky in their 2 match-ups last yr.,don't see any reason he'll turn the tables now.

R.Lewis)  Caracortada is for real & will be tough to beat. Interactif is a tough turf horse so he should take to the Pro-ride. Dave in Dixie reminds me of Chocolate Candy,always comes running late, but is just not good enough vs. top class. American Lion has to show he's not all hype. Tough race,but I'll take the proven product =(track/distance), Caracortada who should get the perfect mid-pack stalking trip.

hello Ranagulzion,I do respect your racing knowledge, and thoughts on the sighting of the 2010' kentucky Derby winner, and also this winner you believe will be a triple crown winner, after the Florida Derby, I say this is a great feeling, I really would not be heart-broken if your Horse/choice were to win Derby and triple crown, this would be very special to the next triple crown winner & the connections, I need to continue to do my homework, and like I said, after I view all the probables (starters)

and then complete my work, only then would I be able to choose an animal that I would really think can win the Derby, this would only be told to all analysts one week before the Derby,( my selection)so for now, I have not yet seen all the horses that are going to race as yet, but we all will know at least the final monday before the Derby, and this is all the time I will need to tell all analysts by that Thursday, week of the Derby who I like to win,it maybe your choice, and if it is, I would not be hesitant to join you, in supporting your choice, I will let you know during derby week, who that animal will be, we are brothers in racing, so we will continue to be great sportsman as we are, no annimosity ..this is our game, what do you think?

caracortado in the san felipe followed by dave in dixie or interactif.

super saver and odysseus boxed in the tampa bay derby.

dublin or lookin at lucky in the rebel.

bushwacker,

lol, do you really think the nay nugget will live up to his word?

me thinks only when cows fly.  

gw bush I hate to break your heart but I said nothing about wearing a dress if Zenyatta wins the big race on plastic.

WINWINWIN,

"Brothers in racing" yes indeed, with some great sports-loving sisters too. Looking forward to seeing your animal ...my Triple Crown winning animal is a beast (LOL). Bravo Pal.

Super Saver is much the best and in the San Felipe who cares ? And look for Dublin to take charge and put his name up as a serious Derby threat.

The last horse to win the Triple Crown won the San Felipe.  Dublin couldn't handle Baffert's "B" squad now he's going to beat his big gun?

DRAYNAY

UptownCharlybrown will win.

Draynay, what happened to Dublin and Super Saver? Scratch Dublin from your short list because he has no chance to win the KY Derby.

And don't cry to much tonight because of Rachel's loss. It's time to regroup Mr. Superstar handicapper.

Try opening your eyes to some different horses, you might learn something new.

And now I have to take my own advice, Buddy's Saint is officialy a scratch from this years KY Derby trail. I always had my eyes open towards other contenders. My top three are solid: 1-Conveyance 2-Awesome Act 3-Lookin at Lucky.

hello Ranagulzion, and all Analysts

how are we all doing? Ranagulzion,

I am most happy that we have some great Racing fans, who are very sharp, and are astute students of this game!Really I am also a student, and have been for may years, and have learned, and am still learning, and often wonders when will I ever know all about this game, only to realize that the more I learn/know, is the more there is to know/learn, it's an intrigue,I am getting better as a student, I chart down all experiences as a lesson...can you imagine how many chapters, and volumes left for me to master.. whew!!anyway, I am all about fun and Racing really gives me that!

as I continue to write blogs, there will come a time when I give my views about anything that I may have noticed during a race, and so on!I hope it to be funny and keep all students happy, and in great moods..here's one for the century

years ago at Belmont Park, during a race, Pat Day and Angel Cordero came down to a finish, a stirring duel, Angel rode Slew of Gold,I forgot the name of Pat Day's horse he rode, anyway, Day won the Race and Angel claimed foul for Day bumping him at the 1/16pole, and shutting him inside, the stewards reviewed the films, and said Angel initiated the contact, and the results stands.. only in New York

if anyone remembers the name of the horse Pat Day rode, could you remind me. thank you all

hello Forbidden Apple, dont feel upset, these things do happen in Horse racing,the scratching of Buddy's Saint!! this is why I promised not to give my Aninal for the Kentucky until the week of the Derby, making sure all is well with my Animal, I am just doing homework now, and hopefully leaving no stones unturned, probably you will find another Derby Fancy, and guess what? you will be rewarded, so things do happen for things to happen.. take care Apple..