I am going with Make Music For Me.

Hi Jason!

Once again, another great post.

I agree that Noble's Promise looks tough to beat in the Arkansas Derby, but I'll be rooting for Dublin.

I don't think that Noble's Promise is going to go a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby. I can see him doing it in the Travers, where the field would be smaller and not quite as tough, but I can't see him hanging on this May.

As for the Blue Grass, Paddy O'Prado and Interactif both look good to me, but I like Aikenite and First Dude as well. I'll be rooting for Odysseus, but I'm concerned that he won't care for Keeneland, just like Pyro.

That said, why don't we get a head start on next year's Triple Crown Talk? I think that Nina Fever is going to win the Kentucky Oaks. Then she will win the Preakness, the Mother Goose, the Haskell, and the Woodward! : )

Finally, (I'm going to say it now) I think that Zenyatta is going to win the Apple Blossom by five lengths or more.

Jason, I think your picks for each race are "spot on".  I am concerned for Odysseus and Pleasant Prince in the Bluegrass.  The synthetics could make a huge difference in their finish.  I so remember Monba's (spelling?) disappointing performance in the Bluegrass.

Noble's Promise certainly looks interestnig based on his shake downs with Lucky.  Could be this year's Musket Man on the super-fecta.  Just don't tell him his daddy never won beyond a mile and he will be fine.  Like Dray said, if Lucky sticks to his bad trips with his "punchy" jockey he could certaily "bob" the 2 year old champ the first saturday in May.  

I hate Odysseus in this spot, because of the synthetics.  I don't think he'll hit the board.  I do love Interactif here though and he has my money to win with Make Music For Me to show.

The Arkansas Derby is NP's to win.  If Dublin is going to show up, he surely needs to do it now and since I've liked him for a long time now, I have to think he gets a good ride from Thompson and pushes Noble's Promise to the wire.  Especially if Super Saver sets up a nice pace for both of them.

I hate the whole graded earnings waiting game.....

Leaving Dublin out is a huge mistake. He has had terrible rides the last two starts having the rail and a legitimate pace places him exactly where he needs to be.

I'd love to see both Odysseus & Pleasant Prince run big.

I'm staying on the Pulsion bandwagon in the Ark Derby even though it's lonely here.  Playing him across the board.  

I'm not betting the Blue Grass, looks too much like a crap shoot.

Derby order of finish

Lookin At Lucky

Eskendereya

Dublin

I admit to being worried but am still supporting Osysseus with fingers crossed that he'll handle the synthetics.  If he does, I think it's his race.

Can't not support Dublin either!  He has such talent and I love his daddy.  I'm concerned that he's having "issues" of some sort at the moment but if he can pull himself together - he's powerful.

Sodapop, welcome to the Make Music for Me bandwagon.  We'll know by tomorrow evening whether he gets in the Derby or not.  Hope it's a big weekend for the "Cal Poly" horses, starting today!

Poly tracks have made The DERBY a lot more difficult to handicap, especially since none of the publications have learned how to give horses running on poly the correct speed figures. Mine That Bird had some powerful races with the right style for the DERBY at Woodbine that were probably overlooked because of the inability to assign the correct speed figures. ARKANSAS DERBY-Too high of a probability of low odds horses finishing in the top two for me to bet this race. And there are no longshots I like. Everyone in here has something to prove. Will Noble's Promise like the distance? Can Dublin finally show that he can drop back and close with authority? Is Super Saver well conditioned enough to get the lead, control the pace and have enough left to finish strong? Where is Northern Giant only 2 weeks after his last race in which he put in a strong effort? The rest are big ?? marks but someone could jump up with a big improvement. Super Saver has the talent but I don't know if he can get the lead as easy as Sidney's Candy does, but he will get the lead, try to relax, and reserve his energy for a big finish. Dublin will drop back and attempt one big closing move. I think Northern Giant will attempt to press then make his move in the stretch. Noble's Promise could either press or drop back even more than that depending on how fast the pace is. I don't expect him to try to get the lead early and try to control the pace. That would be suicidal. Super Saver will be very strong the first mile. The we'll see if he can kick it in. I can't imagine betting anyone in this race at 2-1, but if Super Saver can relax and is well conditioned enough he is going to be very tough.

Keelerman

You said just about what I was going to say (except for the "head start" part which was better than something I would have come up with), so thanks for saving me some writing! =)

I really like Paddy O Prado and Odysseus in the Blue Grass, hope they both do well. I really want to like Interactif, but something about him just does not appeal to me.

Jason, You're right, Nobles Promise looks like a lock in the Arkansas Derby.

But, I really like the Rock Hard Ten colt New Madrid. He's a longshot that showed some talent in his last race and his sire is already proving he can get winners. I don't think he has enough experience or money to get in the Derby field but, we may see him in Baltimore if he does well at Oaklawn.

Good Luck to the horses, may they all have a safe trip.

I'm not deterred by my longshots poor showing last week and at least i didn't have to buy any drinks.  I'm playing all longshots again.  Seriously both of these races look ripe especially the Bluegrass.  

My first choice is Paddy O'Prado but you public handicappers are bringing too much attention to him and maybe putting the kibosh on him going off long.  If he stays 10/1 or better I'm taking him.  Codoy is my Plan B.  There's little chance of him getting overbet.  In Arkansas I'm playing one speed horse and one that should be running late, New Madrid & Berberis.

I've been having dreams that Zenyatta loses today.  Probly because I'm falling asleep with HRTV on while Siegel is talking about her.  He's enough to give anybody nightmares but we'll know by tonight if I'm clairvoyant ;->    

I don't expect Pleasant Prince to be the post time favorite.  I would assume that role will go to Interactif.  That being said I would put my money on Interactif and Paddy O'Prado over Aikenite, Make Music for me, Codoy, Interactif and Paddy O'Prado.  $8 exacta ($1), $24 tri bets.  Hope that some of the longshots come in.

I invision the Arkansas to be more chalky.  NP and SS over Northern Giant, Dublin, NP and SS.  $6 Exacta ($1) $12 tri.  

I don't see Odysseus getting in the derby unless at least 6 horses defect.  It will be a shame, but that is what happens if/when trainers/owners select bad spots for them to run.  He will be a favorite come Preakness.

I always get Derby Fever this time of year.  This year, however, I also have Boogie Fever.  Now I can't decide whether to go out dancing or stay home and read the Racing Form.

Noble's Promise and Paddy O.

It was a lot easier for her on dirt. She was breathing afterward like she hadn't even run a race. Woohoo !!!!!

Hey everybody! Zenyatta won!!!!!! 16-for-16!!! YAHOO!!!

Calming down just a bit, I'm just starting to realize what she has accomplished. She has never lost a race, and she has equaled the record set by Citation and Cigar for most consecutive wins in non-state restricted races.

Unfortunately, I was unable to watch it anywhere. So I'll have to wait for the replays to come up before I can say anything about how impressive she was. But that doesn't matter. She won, that was the important thing.

I now fully believe that she is better than Curlin. She is my favorite horse of all time. (Okay, John Henry still puts up a fight, but it's close)

Congratulations to Zenyatta, Mike Smith, John Sheriffs, Jerry & Ann Moss, etc.

Zenyatta is a serious racehorse.

I still like Odysseus and Noble's Promise.

Venceremos, thankfully you are not clairvoyant. Zenyatta won like the one for the ages she is. Made my heart very glad today. God Bless Ann and Jerry Moss, John Shirreffs, Dottie Shirreffs and her son, Michael, for finding, training and taking care of this incredible horse.

Wow, what an easy win! She didn't quite win by five (she won by four and a quarter) but she did it under a hand ride with her ears pricked. Her move was incredible, and she was in front by the time they turned for home. What a champion! (Oh yeah, and we still have the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby to look forward to!)

I think your analysis is spot on for this weekend's races Jason.

Rest in peace Personal Ensign.  My all time favorite filly.  Thanks for the memories.

No Blood Horse Blogs about the 16th win in a row? Too bad! That's history! What's up with that? I mean, after the Woodward, The Blood Horse proclaimed Rachel Alexandra "Queen Of The Turf"--so no Rachel in the Apple Blossom, and no blog/no nothing! Too bad, cuz there were two grand unbeaten mares in the news today, two of the greatest--Personal Ensign and Zenyatta! Historic mares! All-timers! They never let us down! Not even once....

I'm lookin at the 4-1 odds on Interactif like a chicken dinner! Then again, sometimes the morning line guy gets it wrong--how's that 3-1 filly in the Apple Blossom? Was she 20-1 or something?! And that 3/5 morning line on Big Z was nice! I'm salivating at the 4-1 on Interactif--but he'll likely be lower--he closed well on Sydney's Candy....

Dray's kidding about Zenyatta! He respects her--that's why he disses her! Come Breeders Cup day, he'll be nattily dressed, all right--ya just won't see the extra-absorbent depends he'll be wearing, for when they hit the 1/8 pole, and his Quality Road win tickets will soon be rendered worthless by the unbeatable mare....(or mares)...

Toyota Blue Grass:  Paddy O'Prado

Arkansas Derby:  Super Saver

That is all.

Dr Drunkinbum,

You know, you're right. Watching Zenyatta today and comparing it to the Santa Margarita, I think she accelerates faster on dirt than the synth tracks. It's going to be an interesting year.  

Mathew W I totally agree with everything you said. A separate blog for Zenyatta's accomplishment would have been nice. Less than stellar field or not, she accomplished something historically significant and it should be acknowledged.

Looks like Zenyatta can run pretty damn good on dirt to me.

Hmmm, I guess she will scare away all the competition now,

the naysayers use to use syntheitcs as the excuse, now, she is even better on their favorite surface,  traditional dirt...

My goodness, and M.smith never had to use the whip, why should he, she knows what to do, all she waits for is his command prompt and she takes it from there.

To bad Mr.Jackson isnt' a true sportsman, maybe Ra could have made Zenyatta run a little faster, then blow her(RA) away too.

Is she going to face this every time she runs out of Cali on dirt.

Is she going to have to chase the colts down because the fillies are to scared to run against her??

That was proven in the AB, none of them want any part of her. Not even the "other filly"

Interesting take on the boards Matthew. Kind of like an 8 year old with a puppy love kind of crush on the girl he knows is out of his league. I think you might be on to something.

SUPER SAVER will win over NOBLE'S PROMISE and DUBLIN  third. And be sure that NOBLE'S PROMISE can handle easily the 10 furlong of the derby , of course he will not beat ENDORSEMENT or ESKENDEREYA (locomotive machines). I would liKe that PLEASANT PRINCE and INTERACTIF could make 1 2 because I consider them good Derby prospects for  pedigree distance but neither of them can beat E or E in the BERBY,  

DERBY ANALISIS                     ENDORSEMENT   201.4                ESKENDEREYA    202.0               PLEASANT PRINCE 202.3             CONVEYANCE      202.4            NOBLE PROMISE   203.0           INTERACTIF      203.0          LOOKIN AT LUCKY 203.1         DISCREETLY MINE 203.2        AWESOME ACT     203.2        SYDNEY'S CANDY  204  (consider him for PREAKNESS reinvindication)                ICE BOX , MISSION IMPAZIBLE,DUBLIN and others don't see them any chance.    

Typo on my part, keyword left out...Whacko, as in ..Interesting take on the boards Whacko.

TGIF

Does anyone know how the track was playing at Oaklawn? At first glance I was really impressed with Zenyatta drawing off on the dirt, but when you look at her final furlong I believe it was something like 13 flat or 13.2. I know she was cantering at the end, but she has run 12 second final furlongs faster than that while barely working up a sweat. She and Rachel were know for their ability to close their final furlongs in 12 seconds while under mild urging, yet here, Zen runs a 13? Either it's the track or something is up. I'll look at the Oaklawn times and draw my own conclusions, but I was just wondering if the track was playing extra slow or tiring.

CV, I thought the same thing too. it looked like she was faster on the dirt. Interesting huh? Draynay, what say you???

Sweet 16 and never been beat!!  What a horse!

It is sad that Personal Ensign passed away on the day of Zenyatta's Apple Blossom triumph.  But I imagine those older broodmares do get tired, and she is in greener pastures now.  PE probably spent her last year at peace, knowing there was a worthy successor to continue the tradition of UNBEATEN EXCELLENCE.  

I usually don't type much in caps, but seeing the great Zenyatta win again with the utmost ease has me cranked up!  ALL HAIL THE QUEEN!

I agree with Runfast--it's a mistake to count out Dublin.  I don't  know how many of you have seen him in person, but in the paddock last year, he looked like Hulk Hogan at a ladies sewing circle.  He was just massive compared to the other 2-yr-olds, and he has really come out more this year. Further, he has shown he can run when things go his way, and things may go his way more so tomorrow than they have done recently.

I am going to say what I think is pityful.   Everyone complains that Zenyatta needs to run on dirt.

The MOsses bring her back to do just that, they say they are going to go to the AB in the beginning, and unlike another one , they keep up their end of the bargain.

Problem, where the hell is all the grade 1 superfillies out there that should have been in the starting gate ready to take her on?

Why has everyone put her down but wont step up to the plate and take her on.

If anyone wanted to prove themselves or their horses on dirt the time was in the AB.

Pityful, is what it is. Actually, the 2009 HOTY should have been in the gate too.  Chicken BS is what kept her out,  I doubt we ever see RA in a race with Zenyatta.

Claire Novak wrote a piece for ESPN and in it she quotes Steve Assmusen watching Zenyatta on the big screen and his word was "WOW", when she ran in the AB today,  Now he has seen her in person and I'm sure he will fill JJ in on it.

I doubt we ever see the so called "Race for the ages".

I dont' care about that! my point is why didnt' some of these other grade 1 fillies be entered to challenge Zenyatta.....You ask a horse to run on traditional dirt and you can't find a darn horse to run against her .....Cant' blame Zneyatta, she came and ran...

Pleasant Prince will take the Blue Grass. While Dublin should be ready for a big one in the Arky. Those are my plays to win tomorrow.

Super Saver will try to wire the field from the rail while Noble`s Promise should get the perfect trip.  The question is does NP really want 1 and 1/8th?  I think he`ll come up short in the late stages again and will go with a bomb for the upset in Berberis.

First Dude should get a good stalking trip in the BG so I`ll take him on top in a few exactas.

Zenyatta was perfect again.  I thought she looked more explosive, which is why she already had the lead at the top of the stretch.  It was by far her easiest race.  It's  scary to think she could be better on dirt.  Imagine, we've been seeing Z dominate on a surface she just tolerates!

To address LDP's comment, the difference between the final eighth of the Apple Blossom and the final eighth in Z's other races lies in the difference between dirt and synthetic racing.  In almost all of her synthetic races, Z was having to close into extremely slow paces, and having to make up about 3-5 lengths in the stretch.  To do this, she had to run remarkable, almost unbelievable closing fractions.  

Even though the pace of the Apple Blossom was not fast, it was quicker than what Z is used to in Cali.  Also, it appeared Z was quicker herself on dirt, and that she covered ground a little faster.  I'm not sure Mike had the intention of being on the lead at the top of the stretch, but she just enhaled that field very early on.  By the eighth pole, the Apple Blossom was over and she just cantered to the wire.  

On synthetics, the final eighth is when Z is running her fastest, the time she hits her top speed.  In the Apple Blossom, Z hit her top speed in the 7th and 8th furlongs, not the 9th and final.  The field went the 4th quarter(7th and 8th furlongs) in :24 and 4.  Z was about 5 lengths behind after 6 furlongs, meaning she ran her personal 4th quarter in about :23 and 4.  That averages to about :11 and 4 for the 7th and 8th furlongs.

It is most common for the final eighth for dirt races (two turns) to be about :13+.  On synthetic, because of the slower paces, it is much more common to see final eighths faster than :13 and even faster than :12(something extrememly rare on dirt).

So, LDP, don't make much of Z's final eighth in the Apple Blossom.  First, she could have run much, much faster.  Second, because the race was on dirt, she ran a more dirt-like race.  She ran as fast as normal, it's that she hit her top speed earlier, and put up her fastest eighths before she even reached the final eighth.  And it's just this type of performance that will enable her to stay within contact of a Rachel or Quality Road.  I would have to think that those who bad-mouthed Zenyatta have to be feeling concerned by what they saw in the Apple Blossom; they would have much preferred the typical desperate-rush victory because it would have confirmed their belief that Z doesn't have the speed to stay in contact with a top class dirt horse.

Finally, when Rachel, or Quality Road for that matter, have had to run quicker early fractions, their final eighths were about :13 as well.

I like Noble's Promise in the Arkasas Derby and Interactif in the Blue Grass.

Jason, thanks for tying Personal Ensign's death into your article on Zenyatta's Apple Blossom win. Yes, I found the timing to be quite profound.

The Arkansas Derby is Nobel's Promise's and if Dublin gets nowhere for the umpteenth time can we finally give up on him PLEASE. The Bluegrass should be Odysseus's if he has matured enough to run like he is capable but If he runs green again I like Paddy O'Prado

Of course, it was only East Pomona Race Track as every one of the wisest wise guys knows she can't run a lick outside of California, eh?

With the passing of another great the symbolic torch has been passed from Personal Ensign to Zenyatta.

Paula Higgins,

the nay nay will be here soon blasting the running time and competition of the race. He's not a true fan of racing. The only thing he is a true fan of is stirring the pot.  

LDP- I think it is because she hit the front so early. So she had the whole stretch to coast.  If she hadn't hit the front until mid stretch, you would have seen the last 8th in her usual 12.  Look at it s a gallop out after a working a mile.  At least that's my take on it.

As for the two preps, I like Interactif/Paddy/Make Music in the Blue grass for all the same reasons as Jason et al have said.  In Arkansas, Noble's Promise has this if he runs his usual race.  I'll look to Dublin to run big for DWL.  We'll see if Super Saver improves or not.  As for Noble's Promise at Epsom, I don't see enough stamina there.  12 furlongs there is alot harder than 12 furlongs here.  I love that McPeek nominated him though, and it would be a brave move to send him.  Let him get out of the AD and the KD before we go there.  Sorry not much ground-breaking insight in this post, but the races seem pretty to breakdown this way.

Zen's fractions might have been slower because she, quite simply, did not have to run any faster to easily beat this field.  It looked as though she was gliding on air...what a stride.  

Final time:1:50.3...the first 6f were in 1:12.3 leaving 38 for the last 3f where she was simply cruising.

LDP

The track was 3 to 4 seconds off the track records.  Crack sprinters ran 1.09 in a strong stretch dual.....I still don't get this thing about time......Zen came from 8 lengths off to win by 4 1/2 like nothing against obviously over matched fillies and once again wasn’t even breathing remotely hard at the finish......That in itself is impressive.  Would it be any more impressive if she would have run two seconds faster?  This is why Zen is still racing at six and Rachel is still trying to catch her breath at four.......Zen only does what she has to just like in ’08 when she won the Vanity in 1.49.2 and later that year won the BC Distaff in 1.46.4.....the margins of victory were a half length in the Vanity and 1-1/2L in the BC, not great, but obviously representative of a horse that only does what it has to do.  LOL

LDP

One other thing about yesterday......Zen went her last 1/8th in 12.1 off a 1.37.2 mile split and she was less than cruising without the whip and still widening at the end.......in every other one of her 1/18M races (not sure of the San Margarita this year) I believe the mile splits ranged from 1.35 to 1.35.4.....Once again, she didn’t even look like she was working.  LOL

Quality Road would smash Zenyatta you guys get worked up about a 5 horse race?? Winning 16 in a row is great but she is never challenged because the owners dont take risks hence the reason why Zenyatta is never horse of the year. She wont be this year either becuase Quality Road is the best horse on the planet and will show is speed and power in the met mile! Good win for Z and the fans though! Cant wait for racing today!

Jason, I like your Dave Johnson lede of "down the stretch they come".

Someday, would you, please, pay homage to Phil Georgeff and use his "Here they come, spinning out of the turn"?

But, Duchossis might be offended if you ever tried to use Phil's "pickin' 'em up, layin' 'em down, moving like gangbusters".

NYTimes writer Joe Drape is quoted as doubting that RA will ever be sent against Zenyatta.

I think that's possible - after watching her on dirt (yes, Jason - what a shock - she's even better on dirt) - why would they ask a question to which they won't like the answer?

To paraphrase from Treasure of the Sierra Madre, "HOY?  Zenyatta don't need no stinkin' HOY!"

She has risen above such mundane classifications.  She's one for the ages.

Zenyatta is incredible!!!  There can't be enough praise for her or thanks given to the Mosses for letting her run again this year.  I love that horse so.  LDP, she ran slower at the end because she could - no one would catch her.  She always puts out just the right amount of effort to get the job done = to win.

No place anywhere to comment on Zenyatta.....?  Well hate to be off topic but she deserves comments. Once again she was awesome!!!  A horse that can win races in a gallop is really incredible!  Her detractors will say she didn't run against anything - but it isn't her fault others are afraid to face her.  And a last furlong in 13 when you are just galloping, well no wonder!  She is an incredible horse who wins races with such ease!  The great ones often tend to make things look much easier than they are and we are truly witnessing greatness here!!!  And just think, we haven't even seen her best yet!

It Aint Easy being good

Hey bud......your genius tag just went south.  Quality Road, as good as he is, hasn't raced against a horse even remotely as good as Zenyatta and I'm considering Summer Bird in making this statement.  As I mentioned in an earlier post, she only does what she has to do and other than an extreme jockey error in the Annabees race, she really hasn't been pushed.  You can put Rachel, Quality Road even the kitchen sink in Zen's position in the Anabees race and I'll bet anything you want, they wouln't have won.  Zen did and she's won it all against whatever competition dares show up 16 times now.  That speaks volumns as to her greatness.  Quality and Rachel are great but when it comes to Zen it's like that movie.....in a league of her own.  LOL

draynot you have no idea what you are talking about.  I am a huge racing fan but enough is enough with this whole Zenyatta thing.  16 races and 15 against females only.  Enough already if she is all that and a box of chocolate TAKE ON THE BOYS!  I don't want to see her in another filly race again WHO CARES. GunBow how can you pick Noble's Promise and then pick Interactif in the Bluegrass? If he his the board I will be shocked.  Let's hope you get one race right today.  Bill C come back here after the races and tell me how you did. lol. After today can all you people stop the "Can Noble get the distance garbage."

Zenyatta runs ONLY as fast as she needs to, to win. Why is this such a difficult thing to accept. Granted, this wasn't her greatest victory but it was plenty good enough for me and for the 44,900+ assembled to witness her 16th win in a row while STILL undefeated. The good people of Ark. gave her a wonderful welcome, she put on her best show for them, she came back safe and sound, danced some more and made a lot of people very happy. What wrong with that? NOTHING!

Since no decent competition saw fit to even TRY to beat her, it is a poor reflection on them, not her. Since she will have to go against males to meet ANY competition, her undefeated status will be in jeopardy every time she steps on the track. We can only sit back, hope for the best and enjoy the show. If you can't do that, it's YOUR loss, not hers, her connections' and her adoring fans'.

Thank you Jason for writing a nice article on her victory and on the pleasure she gave us! I think you like her a little bit also.  :)

Correction to Zen's last 1/8th.  it should have been 13.1.  It still doesn't matter.  Footlick's analogy of Zen making the front early and cruising is probably very correct when assessing her final time.  In regards to Gunbow's remarks about pace times being slower on synthetics, the mile in this race was much slower than the mile in her 1-1/8th miles on synthetics.

PhonyJJ

Well said bud.  LOL

Racingfan,

It has been my experience that anyone can comment on anything on this blog. It's only a couple of fellow bloggers who have objected (lately) to the mention of Zenyatta and her great accomplishments.(Only to comment on it themselves after attempting to silence some of us) LOL!!

Yes, it is mainly a TC blog but Jason allows just about anything even if it has zero to do with horse racing. IF Ted from LA's histerical difficulties with his digestive system are allowed, you can bet your sweet "bippees" (?) that your comment on Zenyatta are MOST welcome and enjoyed by all of us you CAN appreciate her.

Itainteasy:

Don't take chances?  Zenyatta's connections were all set to challenge the 2009 Horse of the Year!  They promised to show up at the Apple Blossom and they did.  It's not their fault that JJ and Asmussen pulled Rachel from the race.  And it would have been almost cruel to Oaklawn and all the fans had Moss pulled Zenyatta from the Apple Blossom after the showdown fell through.  It's also not Zenyatta's fault that the connections of no other major filly or mare wanted to run against Big Z in the Apple Blossom.  Rally against Z all you want, but I think it's alot more telling what other horsemen think about Z; and given how they try to avoid Big Z, horsemen clearly have a ton of respect for her.

Also, before we make the Apple Blossom field out to  be garbage, weren't these the same fillies Rachel beat in the early part of last year(Be Fair, Just Jenda, War Echo)?

Y'all will never see Zenyatta race Rachel.  I predict we are but a few weeks from an announcement that Rachel is being retired.  The connections want no part of Zenyatta.

Quality Road v. Zenyatta is intriguing.  I think at 1 1/8 miles it is a toss up.  At 1 1/4 miles, Zenyatta romps.

Zookeeper, I didn't 'attempt' to silence you. I just commented that I'd like a blog once in a while that didn't turn into a condemnation as to horses breaking down, or a Zenyatta/Rachel beatdown.

That may not be your intent with your comments but it initiates that every single time. I personally don't see why EVERY SINGLE BLOG needs to be turned in that direction.

My comment about the track condition and the times were directed at LDP who asked a question. My whole response wasn't printed and I responded to the young lady who asked a question that was pertinent to today as well. She is a STUDENT of the sport and is always analyzing and curious about the overall effect of the track conditions on the races of importance, including the Ark Derby from what I read.

Okay, the mare has run. She ran against the same fillies Rachel ran against last year. Draynay has made his obligatory digs against Zenyatta, which I get SICK of seeing every single blog.

Now moving on to today. The crowd should be even larger than yesterday. Seems hard to believe the big race is just hours away.

Bill C, I wouldn't say that Dublin should be forgotten or ignored. If he comes out of the race today okay, he'll be in the Derby. He's been moving forward since his return, but the Rebel was a debacle.

Just like Gomez gave LAL a bad ride? Nakatani was a disaster on Dublin, a failed experiment. Dublin tends to get into trouble in races, he's a big colt and Nak didn't help matters AT ALL.

Blew that opportunity.

Like Wayne said, there was no way that colt could move forward in that race, he had no shot and CN didn't put him in a position to succeed, everything BUT THAT.

As far as the Derby? Who knows what will happen there. It's the best horse on THAT day, the horse who gets the best trip and the one who has the best luck. Half the battle in getting IN the race.

Zookeeper

  Your two latest posts are brilliant. It's good to have you back as your old self. There are only two horses right now that can gobble up ground like a super gopher. The two Gopherzillas are Zenyatta and Eskendereya.

FIRST-Eskendereya wins the Triple Crown. THEN Zenyatta wins the Breeder's Cup Classic 2010. THEN we hook those two up to produce Gopherzilleya who HERSELF wins The Triple Crown and The Breeder's Cup Classic. THEN Zenyatta and Eskendereya team up to win Dancing With The Stars. THEN they go on to win an Olympic Gold Medal in Pairs Figure Skating. And that is the TRUE STORY of Zenyatta and Eskendereya.

"Jason, thanks for tying Personal Ensign's death into your article on Zenyatta's Apple Blossom win."

I want to echo Gunbow's comment, Jason. The mention was poignant and most appropriate.  

Footlick and Gun Bow,

Thanks for answering. Gun Bow your analysis makes a lot of sense, I didn't think about that.

Laz and Terri,

Chill. I was asking about the track out of curiosity, not trying to take away from her victory. If I was trying to do the latter, I would've just pointed out the times and said she sucked, but I didn't, I asked about the track, because I thought that might be why her final quarter was slower.

One more comment re the Apple Blossom: Kudos to the connections of the horses who DID show up. Now, Taptam and Be Fair have a Grade 1 place & show to add to their resumes, something that was somewhat unlikely before the running of the AB. Nobody will remember who else ran in that race, they will only know that they hit the board behind the great Zenyatta and their value as potential broodmares has been enhanced simply for having the guts to try. It was a no-brainer and yet so few saw the opportunity. Hard to understand!

The usual "put her down" group are present I see. As usual putting whatever race she runs in down.

The problem with this scenario is why wasnt she challenged more?  Is it Zenyatta's fault? NO, she gave  plenty of time to line up a good grade 1 field to take her on, Did it happen? NO, NO one wants to run in the same race as her, Not even last years HOTY.  

So, what are the Mosses supposed to do now? are they supposed to run all over trying to find a field to run against her, NO, they are coming back we know for sure in the BCC, but I believe they want to run her before then on dirt, so , I am looking for her to return over the summer for a race.

She will have to look for colts because there is no filly/mares that wants to duel with her.

Why didnnt Steve A. put another one of his grade 1 fillie's/mares in there, I know he sure didnt think that grade 3 in there was going to defeat Zenyatta, did he?

So, we can stop with all the ragging on ZEnyatta.

She did what she was asked to do.

Draynay, you are wrong on Zenyatta that's IF you really believe what you wrote, but I am betting you don't. You are smarter than that.

Quality Road is one interesting horse. I believe between Rachel and Quality Road, he is the one that could give Zenyatta a run for her money. But I would bet the house she would beat him. She never has to dig down really deep to win. There is more there if she is ever needs to step it up. As long as she gets a good ride, I believe she can beat Quality Road at a 1 1/8 or 1 1/4.  

As for Jerry Moss and John Shirreffs not taking chances with her, I disagree totally. They have been very wise in where they have chosen to race her. It is the main reason she is still able to run like she does. She wasn't run into the ground against the boys early on, which is why she was able to clean up in the Breeders Cup Classic. She can always beat the boys, and will again. But they are careful not to over extend her before the bigger races. That is just smart thinking on their part. I am not slamming Jackson or Asmussen when I say that. Rachel won HOTY of the year based on the stepped up campaign they ran. But I think that is as good as it is going to get. It was historic and she makes the history books, but Zenyatta will contine to extend her wins and will end up one of the top 10 horses in history, very possibly the top 5. She is simply magnificent and she makes me happy to be alive.

   I like Odysseus in the Blue Grass especially after his gutsy Tampa Bay Derby win ! I just hope he takes to the Polytrack ! In the Arkansas Derby  I'd like to see Dublin win but, he seems like a plodder,He really has to step it up a notch today ! Zenyatta is in a league of her own ! I think she's better than RA ! Her Perfection says it all !!!

I think Zenyatta versus Quality Road is a lot more likely than Zenyatta versus Rachel at this point.

Quality Road has talent to burn - he'd be about the closest to giving Z a real test.  But I'm not sure it will happen - the Mosses may be selective in what races they send her to - and wait to take on the boys when they are all at the dance - at Breeders Cup.

Grats to 16, Zenyatta!

Gunbow if Zenyatta is so great then why wasnt she horse of the year awnser because the owners were wimps last year and never challenged big Z. This year though I think the owners are willing to take on bigger challenges. The good news is that we actually might see Zenyatta on dirt instead of Santa Anita. Why didnt Big Z go to dubia awnser owners were scared. They say that they want to run G1 races will see if they put big Z to the test!

Curlin one of the best horses ever was sent to dubia, turf and sythetics and was always challenged. The owners need to lift up there skirt and take on meaningful races!

Dray Nobles Promise is a dud get over it!

It aint'easy:

Question?  Why didnt our 2009 HOTY go to Dubai , and prove how great she is.   She should have been the one going. right?

Surface excuse , right?  if she is so great, she should be able to run on any surface,  Zenyatta can...........

"...Zen runs a 13? Either it's the track or something is up."

LDP, Gunbow posted a thorough explanation. I only have a couple observations:

(1)Zenyatta ran the 1 1/8-mile Apple Blossom in 1:50.17, practically cantering across the line with Mike Smith sightseeing (literally, he was looking at the big screen) on her back.

(2)"Eskendereya: The Star We Were Searching For" ran the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial in a comparatively easy final time of 1:49.97.

Unless either of these horses were limping around afterward, it doesn't appear "something was up." They were well ahead and weren't being whipped and pushed.

LDP

Nobody said you were nit picking.....you wanted a comparison of the times and you got it.....it's no big deal.

Dr Drunkinbum, loved that match up with Eskendereya with Big Z!!! But my favorite part was they go on to win Dancing With the Stars and the Olympics Pairs Figure Skating medal!!!! Hilarious.

Face it Zenyatta is one of the best of all time. Forget about debating on who will give her a challenge because it's a moot point.

Tim G,

There is NO "maybe" about my intentions. You DID attempt to silence me. Your reasons for commenting on the AB are valid but mine are not? Not EVERY SINGLE BLOG turns into what you describe and my posts certainly do not initiate ugliness every single time I comment. Exagerations and blatant unfairness will not keep me from praising the horses I like and will not silence my objections to some facets of this sport.

Now I'm going back to my enjoyment of another great day at the races and I still hope you're having a great time at Oaklawn.

Dr Drunkinbum,

You flights of fancy are absolute jewels! I'm loving every word. And thanks again for your kind words.

Biofuel

Someone asked about Biofuel the other day.....She just ran in her first race since the BC.  Won the Star Shoot stakes at Woodbine today (6th race) by 2-L in 1:10 coming from 5th and last to win going away.  Wild Forest Cat from the Asmussen barn at 4-5 finished 4th.

Hey CV Sidneys candys times are better than both Z and eskendrya so what do you make of that then? Talamo was the one whipping and pushing Sidneys candy when sidney could have jogged home. Looks like Big Z loved the dirt what do you think will happen when Sidney hit the dirt for the first time???? awnser: Get the nitrous ready because Sidneys candy will hit the nitrous botton at the 1/8th pool and then bye bye ESKENDRYA you wont need to worry how to pronounce its because Esken will be in 4th place and Pletcher will go 0-25! lol!

It Aint Easy being good

Why wasn't Zenyatta voted HOT in 2009.....Two answers: (A) Rachel had a GREAT BODY OF WORK in spite of the competition she faced.....(B) Irregardless of what some say, there was a voting bias.....why.....because some great astute horseperson in his infinite wisdom actually gave Icon Project a 1st place vote in the Older Filly/Mare category.  Some people said that the voter made a mistake.  The voter said he didn't.  That in a nutshell spells bias to me.....In any event who cares about HOY.  It's a moot point right now.  LOL

Well, who saw that coming? Stately Victor? 40-1 and not on anyone's radar. I think putting Odysseus at the front so early was a huge mistake. Paddy O'Prado hung on for second. Not too shabby. I don't think we are seeing the Derby winner from this race.

 Ha - more evidence of Dray's "Handicapping Power" lol!

And Dray's jinx continues......

DRAY!!!!!!!!!!

What do you think of your Derby Favorite now!!??

Great ride by JK on Line of David!  SS ran well, UH Oh Bango in fourth.  Can't wait to see the derby earnings on Monday.

Another huh? victory. Line of David, hangs on for a gutsy win in the Arkansas. Again, the Derby winner isn't coming out of this race either. Super Saver ran a very good race too. Ditto Dublin. Looks like we are looking at one of these three for a win at the Derby:

Eskendreya

Lookin At Lucky

Sidney's Candy

How good does Esky look now on the First sat. in May.

Well, I've got seconditis. My choices were Paddy O'Prado and Super Saver. Both did well but this was THE day for long shots. Were those results a preview of what is waiting for us on May 1st? Being the favorite was not a good thing at Keeneland nor at Oaklawn; will it be at Churchill Downs?

I would think that Odysseus is likely going to aim for the Preakness, maybe Bango as well.

Who saw Stately Victor and Line of David?  Talk about shaking up the derby picture!  

Dublin ran a good third, but I have seen/ heard that far too often from him.  Super Saver ran well for his second place.  I still like Lookin at Lucky as my favorite, Esky probably still in my top five, but I am holding firm that Winstar will have at least three horses finish in front of Noble's Promise in the derby!

What did I tell all of you. Take the longest longshots in the race, and low and behold what happened today but all the longshots won.

Gosh, I wish I was betting man, I would have myself some cool cash.

I am going to have to start wagering on these longshots, because I am cheating myself out of some money.  I guess.

haha dray I told you man your horse NP is a dud so who you taking now buddy you have fallen off since last year maybe you should get the ban back on and sit his year out!

Well, if you are a longshot player, you might have cleaned up today.  I can't believe two more (unheralded) horses have now earned their way into the Derby.  And only a couple were eliminated (like Make Music for me, sigh...)  Most or all of Todd's will still have enough to get in, I think.  

The fight to qualify for the Derby is getting like the actual fight on the racetrack, except it's the connections who are no doubt  exhausted from fretting about it!

2009 Horse of the Year:  Still a bit knocked out from her winning campaign, which ended more than seven months ago.

2008 and 2009 Horse of the Year runner-up:  Still running, undefeated, tied Cigar and Citation, 10 G1's in a row, attracts crowds whenever she leaves her stall, charms the pants off of just about everybody, and always looks like she's happy and having a good time.

Conclusion:  I would give up that statuette in a minute if I could own a horse like Zenyatta.

PAULA HIGGINS-Thanks !!! Did you ever see the blog I added recently to The Rachel/Zenyatta blog? I hope they'll decide not to run Noble's Promise in The Derby now. He's a good horse but that's too far for him. Did you know that Caracortado and Setsuko have been nominated to The Lexington? That's what I say too Paula-does he believe stuff or just saying things to get people riled up? I'll leave it at that. I'm very happy now but I have to admit that I was very nervous in the few days leading up to the Apple Blossom because of all the strange circumstances that brought her there. A nice easy workout winning that race, don't you think? Pro Ride is a strong conditioner. It gets easier on dirt for many of them. Sidney's Candy could be really something special on dirt.

Super Saver ran a great race for his 2nd start of the year.  Nobles Promise either bounced or cannot outrun his pedigree. Dublin is cooked, three starts and not one win.  Nice to see Super Saver beat two Grade 1 winners to the wire. wink wink Draynay......

Is the jockey for Arkansas Derby winner Line Of David the same Jon Court as the hard luck jockey from the Animal Planet TV show Jockeys?

How cool is it that he would get an upset win today and qualify for the Kentucky Derby? Assuming of course, the trainer keeps him on the horse. It apparently was his first time riding Line of David today.

Secondly, everyone who's near Draynay be sure to keep him away from any bridges. Noble's Promise seems to have had a bad trip almost as like the last two of Lookin At Lucky.

I wonder if this will be another year of the upset winning the Kentucky Derby.

"Hey CV Sidneys candys times are better than both Z and eskendrya so what do you make of that then?"

It Aint Easy,

You already answered that question in your post: "Talamo was the one whipping and pushing Sidneys candy when sidney could have jogged home..."

ZK whatever. I just want you to look at the blog. Then tell me that.

NOW you can go post on Steve's. But the controversial hate posts aren't allowed on there so after a comment or two?  Finito.

On Dublin?

"Our goal is not Saturday. We're looking beyond that," Lukas said. "Don't get me wrong, we're going to try to win the race, but our major goal is the one that really counts." 4/9/10

Eye on the prize boys, eye on the prize.

OBVIOUSLY none of you have ever won a decent purse. Keeps a person in the game. Whether it's 1,2 or 3 that money is nothing to sneeze at.

More disappointing was NG, knew it was too quick back but he doesn't care for the synthetics. Too bad.

Like I said, 20 horses and 19 of them are crying at the end of the race if the racing gods don't smile on them.

Now lets see what happens in the next few weeks. With the Derby and the Oaks contenders.

The biggest thing is keeping them fit, healthy and happy. Oh, and praying Draynay doesn't jump on the bandwagon of one, ANY of us want to win.

Also, Jason, did you spend too much time in the sun with Dray? NP?

He won't get 1 1/4 IMHO. SOME horses in that race will appreciate the added distance and a track that isn't bogging them down.

Don't know what the were thinking by hustling Odysseus to the lead,anyway 4races in 4months looks like they've taken a toll on him.I hope they turn him out and freshen him up for the Summer/Fall meets.Take Control should be back by then too.

They struggled home in the Ark Derby and both SS & Dublin still couldn't get by the winner while getting the perfect stalking trips. Toss both of them from consideration. The winner hung-on while setting quick splits,give him credit and how about those sorry Cali synthetics horses?...enough said.

Interactif had every chance to win with a mid/stalking position his fans have been so adamant about him needing in order to show his best.Well,he got it today but just wasn't good enough,again.Keep him on turf were he belongs,he peaked last year. First Dude caught my eye,he ran pretty good today first time on synthetics.He also had traffic trouble in the Fla Derby,I expect him to be a major player this year,love his long stride.Maybe he'll take to turf even better with that stride.The Belmont should fit him to a tee.

With yet another So. Cal shipper winning (a John Sadler front runner no less) on dirt in the Arkansas Derby, you have to be thinking about Sidney's Candy.  

Bold Forbes won the '76 Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire.  He defeated the 2-5 favorite 2-year-old champion Honest Pleasure (also a front running speed horse).  "Bo" had a solid 2-year-old foundation himself, being named champion in Puerto Rico, where he set a track record at 6 furlongs.  In winning the Wood Memorial he broke the stakes record held by his grandsire (Bold Ruler).  Laz Barrera, trained for stamina over speed by giving Bo a series of 2-mile gallops rather than fast 5 furlongs works.  On Derby day he went to the lead in an opening quarter of 22 2/5, after which jockey Cordero slowed down the pace by about one second per quarter, ultimately coming home the final furlong in 13 seconds.  

"There are some amazing things about Bo's Derby. Bold Forbes laid down fast fractions of :22 2/5, :45 4/5, 1:10 2/5, 1:35 3/5, with a final time of 2:01 3/5. Prior to 1976, only four horses ran the ½ mile faster than :46, and none of them placed. At the 3/4 mark, only three horses were faster, and they finished unplaced, a fifth, and a second. His Derby was a true display of speed and courage."

Given that Sidney's Candy has been racing over Pro-Ride, which increases stamina, and may benefit from this "first-time synthetic to dirt" phenomenom displayed by many, how likely is it that Sidney is special enough to pull off a wire-to-wire Derby win of his own, defeating the 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky and the favorite Eskendereya?  I know that there is a huge difference between today's thoroughbreds and those of the golden age.  Bold Forbes did it all with a chunk of his right rear hoof missing.  In the Preakness, Bo got into a speed dual with Honest Pleasure -- "Honest Pleasure went with him out of the gate. They ran fractions of :22 3/5 and the 1/2 in :45, the fastest half-mile ever run in the Preakness. At that point, Bo began to draw clear, running the fastest 3/4 split to that time of 1:09, which was 1 2/5 seconds faster than any previous Preakness and also 1/5 of a second faster than the track record. He hit the mile in 1:35 1/5 -- again faster than any previous running except Cannonero II's".  While Honest Pleasure faded to fifth, Bo held on for third.  Afterwhich, he again had a chunk of hoof removed, this time from the rear left.  But this smallish colt came back three weeks later to WIRE the field, which included nine fresh horses, in the Belmont Stakes!  His troubles continued in the Vosbourgh where he cut a leg and nearly bled to death, but by that time he was a valuable breeding prospect, and was retired.  BTW, people at that time also believed that the 1 1/4 mile distance was too far for a speed horse.  

Dr Drunkinbum, no I didn't see that blog entry. I was nervous for Zenyatta too because as we all know anything can happen in any race. Besides which, I was worried Calvin Borel would be wanting a little revenge LOL, because of Rachel's second place finish against Zardana. I thought he was going to be working overtime to win, which I know he does anyway.

Yes, I agree that Sidney's Candy could be the one. Horses seem to do so much better going from the synthetics to dirt, then the other way around. He was impressive.

I just read in an article on DRF.com titled "Zenyatta just as good on dirt", and they say Zenyatta in the AB race on Friday scored a 95 Beyer Speed figure.

TJ I didn't enjoy the Arkansas very much because it was over for me when the gates opened.  Noble can't afford that kind of start and win.  The jockey did the right thing to wrap him up the last couple of hundred yards.  The thing that surprised me the most is how much fast the top three finishers ran faster then Zenyatta by about 8 lengths.  The fractions were strong too.  Dublin looks like he is getting better and better.  It will be interesting to see what Beyer Zenyatta gets and what Beyer the 3 in the Arkansas get.  They should get about 10 points higher based on a much faster time.  We shall see.

Not what we were expecting.  After last weekend's formful results, we get Stately Victor and Line of David.  Both horses ran well to win, but they are still going to be longshots in the Derby.

Stately Victor looks like a horse that will like 10 furlongs.  However, his turf-synthetic form suggests he is closer to Dominican and Monba than a Derby winner.

I believe Stately Victor's large margin of victory is an indictment of the field.  Interactif had no excuses.  He's proven on turf and synthetic, so using surface as an excuse doesn't appear justified.  He was my pick for the race, but having seen him in person in the Sam Felipe I did have concerns about his smallish size; a horse doesn't have to be a physical monster to be good, but Interactif is a little guy and doesn't carry a great amount of weight.

Aikenite also had no excuse nor did make Music For Me.  Both were proven on turf and synthetic;  Alexis Barba's bubble really burst these last 2 weeks.  Hopefully, Aikenite won't take the place of a legit contender in the Derby starting gate.

Paddy O' Prado ran ok, but he was well beaten by a huge longshot and doesn't have established stakes form on dirt.

Odysseus and Pleasant Prince were likely compromised by the surface and because of it will not make the Derby field.  Even with the likelihood both didn't care for the polytrack, I would have expected more.  Odysseus never looked good out there and folded without a fight.  Although Super Saver did run 2nd in the Arkansas Derby, the form of the Tampa Bay Derby has not been flattered over the last week.

As for the Arkansas Derby, one has to be impressed with the fractions Line of David put up.  This was easily the fastest paced Derby prep of the year, and Line of David displayed great fight and talent to hold on after setting such demanding fractions.  I had been at Santa Anita on February 13th when Line of David broke his maiden running a mile on turf. I was extrememly impressed with him that day, and loved his physicality.  However, I was thinking he might turn out to be the next Bien Bien, not a Derby contender.  As high as I was on him, I just did not expect him to win a race like the Arkansas Derby.  Line of David was the 3rd straight SoCal shipper to capture the Arkansas Derby(Gayego, Papa Clem).

My guess is that Line of David will be the Derby pacesetter.  Thus, I envision Sadler's "bigger" prospect, Sidney's Candy, to rate in 3rd or 4th, and try to work out a trip similar to what Affirmed got in 78'; Sidney's Candy is so calm and cool, I think he should have little problem rating behind horses.

Super Saver and Dublin ran well, but they had no excuses.  Dublin got a nice pace to set up his late run, but once again he hung in the stretch.  Right now, I have serious questions about his talent, explosiveness, and distance capabilities.  Super Saver improved in his 2nd start off the layoff, but he wasn't exactly electrifying.  Let's be honest, the top 3 finishers were very tired coming down the stretch, and did a good job impersonating the Louisiana Derby.  I'm sure Super Saver will be headed for Churchill, but he won't be high on my list.

Noble's Promise definitely deserves some slack.  The bad start really compromised his typical stalking style; a horse with good tactical speed, Noble's Promise found himself at the back of the pack early, and then to compound things he was ridden too patiently by Albarado(after the poor start should have probably been pushed up to get back into contention and into his normal spot).  Still, Noble's Promise didn't show much spark and the race was a clear backwards step for him.  No doubt, however, we'll be seeing him in Kentucky.

Uh Oh Bango closed well to be 4th, but he should have closed well given the fast early fractions.  His Delta Jackpot earnings might still get him into the Derby where he would be a longshot.

Overall, I think any horses coming from these two races will be Derby outsiders.  Interactif, 5th in my rankings last week, is going to drop significantly.  I will not give up on Noble's Promise(my previous #4), but he will definitely drop.  Dublin ran exactly like he has been running, solid but just not good enough.  Thus, he'll remain a 2nd tier contender for me.  I can see how some might rank Super Saver high, but I wasn't big on him before today and he didn't make a strong enough case to change my opinion.  I think he has some quality, but I see him more as  a Haskell horse than Derby horse.  

Jason:

Thru today's racing it looks 250,500 in graded earnings is about the 20th spot right now.

DRAYNAY,

In your arrogant handicapping folly you abondoned the Beyer speed figures angle in favour of your "grade one" hogwash to tout Noble's Promise and Dublin in the Arkansas Derby and now you've been bitten /kicked in the butt ...serve you right.  

Come here and be fed some crow, and while you're at it learn this Buddy, pedigree matters BIG TIME on the Triple Crown trail, as well as speed figures.  The latter I know that you know but apparently it didn't suit your disingenuous ramble about Noble's Promise, Dublin and Looking At Lucky.  I tell you this about LAL ...he's all heart and very game but he's too slow and a bit short on stamina for the level at which the Derby will be contested this year.  I have to admit that I was surprised at the level of your dishonesty/ inconsistency, that you actually used Esky's non-performance on Pro-ride in the Breeder's Cup juvenile against him, knowing full well that 99% of dirt horses (including D'Funnybone which you tout) do not act well on it.  Any vestige of credibility you had remaining is gone so you might as well begin to "pack your bags" along with Mike Relva (sorry Mike but you might enjoy each other's company) in preparation for a long break from these blogs ...unless of course you come humbly and have your fill of crow.  Fire Slam and I are still willing to receive you with a broken and contrite heart unto the Eskendereya triple crown waggon.          

Barring bad weather there will be no upset in this year's Derby, only jaw-dropping awe and amazement at the superlative performance that the thoroughbred world will witness from the new superstar Eskendereya and his supporting cast of Todd squad stablemates ...and the best will still be yet to come. Wow!!!

Wow.

I didn't see that coming.

Just a few hours before the Blue Grass, I thought to myself, "Wow, what a tough race to figure out. I would not be surprised at all to see anyone of these horses win . . . okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won . . ."

So imagine my surprise when Stately Victor came home in front at odds of 40-1!

As for the Arkansas Derby, my fears came true: I knew that Line of David was hugely underbet and had an excellent shot at winning if he got a clear lead. (I even said this in a prior comment.) So after about three eighths of a mile had been run, and Line of David had a clear lead, I though to myself, "The race is over." I thought for a minute that Dublin and Super Saver might catch him, but he held on to win by a neck. So congratulations to his, and Stately Victor's, connections.

But Dublin is still my Derby pick.

$250K to get into the 2010 derby?  What will it take next year?  You won't see the trainer and owners being conservative next year.  Good night.  

Carlos in Cali,

I hope that you are learning that pedigree matters a lot on the triple Crown Trail ...so much for Odysseus, Take Control, Schoolyard Dreams and your favourite AP Indy sons and grandsons getting ready/being rushed for the Derby.  Super Saver continues to improve and Interactif has already shown that he is capable of a huge effort in the Derby.  Tell me honestly, would you be surprised to see him run big (finish in the top three) in the Derby?  Interactif is the mystery horse because everyone knows he has the class, pedigree, stamina and versatility to shine but he has not yet fully unveiled himself as others have ...keep guessing Carlos.

Dray- just look at the difference ion pace and the ease which Zenyatta won.  If you think any of these three year olds could beat her you are a bigger idiot than you have proven to be before your statements.  Why can you never be honest about Zenyatta????  I am honest about your beloved Rachel and QR.  They are wonderful horses.  If you don't understand a horse who just runs as fast as she has to run, that's fine.  Admit it.  The pace was much faster in the AD, but they weren't that much faster at the end.  The Beyer might be bigger because Beyer figures are pace dependent.  When they figure out that a slow pace can't beat Zenyatta, her Beyers will go up- ala the BCC.

LDP- I understood your question, which is why I answered.  Otherwise, as I'm sure some have noticed,I wouldn't have if I thought you were criticizing.  My Derby horse is still Lookin at Lucky.  And Zenyatta will run as fast as she needs to run. ;-)

Well, what a treat today was.  I myself named Victor picked Stately Victor to win this race. Too bad my dad wasn't in town to stop by the OTB and put $20 to win on him which I was planning on doing.  No joke, I picked this horse to win.  Then he does!!!  40-1. Wow. Well, I'm still very high on Sidney's Candy for the Derby, and I believe he has an incredible chance of winning the race.  Still, after picking Victor to win, and having the same name I may never get the chance to pick a Derby horse named Victor to win again.  So Stately Victor is now my Derby horse, obviously not with my brains but with my heart.  Plus, his sire is the greatest male racehorse since AT LEAST the 80's.  Ghostzapper.  Stately VICTOR all the way for the Derby!!!!

Derby Top 10 - To be updated shortly.  Top 2 after today's races are:

1 - Stately Victor

2 - Sidney's Candy

I was just reviewing the Santa Anita program from Feb 13th, the day Line of David broke his maiden.  Wow, there were some good horses that ran that day!

Misremembered

Jeranimo

Rendezvous

St. Trinians

Life is Sweet

Zardana

Mushka

My Baby Baby

Blind Luck

Crisp

Evening Jewel

Caracortado

American Lion

Line of David

Misremembered would go on to win the Big Cap, Zardana beat Rachel in the NO Ladies, My Baby Baby won a stakes at Turfway, Blind Luck won the Fantasy at Oaklawn, Crisp won the Santa Anita Oaks, Evening Jewel won the Ashland at Keeneland, American Lion won the Illinois Derby, and Line of David added the Arkansas Derby.  Notice the success these horses had outside of California.

helsbelles,

Wonderful post about Bold Forbes.

GunBow,

Great analysis as always. If the Derby was tomorrow, who would be your first 3 choices?

Anyone want to take a guess at what a Blind Luck - Eskendereya Oaks-Derby Double Will Pay?

Tim G,

ZK whatever??? Was that supposed to be a crushing blow?

I did read the blog and I did tell you that.

Finally, your recommendation for me to visit Mr. Haskin's blog was not necessary as I do visit there often. You speak of controversial hate posts ending in a finito verdict... tell me, do you speak from personal experience in this matter?

I am looking forward to a match between ZENYATTA and QUALITY ROAD and I will bet all my money if the distance is 9 furlong . Pleople don't undersatnd that horses some times mature and QUALITY ROAD from now on will be undefeated.       Analizing this week preps I don;t have any dought that ESKENDEREYA will win the derby easily in 201.3 (track good) in the same way that BARBARO and BIG BROWN did . You can place ENDORSEMENT for the superfecta which is the best bet anyone can do in a race like the derby .I believe that SYDNEY'S CANDY will run a disapointed race in the derby . So don.t get in love of the californians that in the racent years have done nothing in CHURCHILL DOWWS. The horses that win the ARKANSAS and BLUE GRASS can make a a good race in the derby because they seems to handle the distance, but not to take the crown of the king ESKENDEREYA.

What's your name,

No one cares about time differences between 3YO and Zenyatta.  They are two completely different races, with more horses running in the 3YO race.  

It is more outlandish to compare the time of a closer with softer fractions to the time of two front runners and Dublin.  The time of a closer is solely dependent on who is setting the pace.  

Zenyatta was loping along through the first 3/4 mile and turned on the jets until Mike got her in front and hand rode her to the 1/16 then wrapped her up the rest of the way.  This was nothing more than a public workout for Zenyatta and she finished perfectly.

This was a cake field and she did what she had to do to win, that is what Good horses do.

Noble's Promise did get pinched right out of the gate but had a perfect trip the rest of the 1 1/16 miles and was in perfect position turning for home.  He had NO EXCUSE other than he is not fast enough.  The jockey whipped him up until the 1/16 pole and new he had nothing left.  Bet Noble's Promise in the Derby at your own peril to the rest of the world's profit.  

I said it here first that Winstar will have at least three horses if not four finish ahead of NP in the derby.

It is time for you to pick a new horse.  I feel sorry for the connections of the horse you pick.  Stay away from the Winstar horses please!

GunBow,

I have to disagree with your assessment of Albarado's ride.  If a jockey panics and rushes a horse up to the leaders too fast too early the horse usually has nothing left in the tank for the finish.  

Good horses find a way to win regardless of circumstance.  Look at I Want Revenge's Wood Memorial run, he stumbled terribly out of the gate and what did Joe Talamo do?  He waited patiently, bided his time, inched him forward, (got him in a terrible boxed position) but he found a way to win.  This set up perfectly for he and Dublin to win this race from behind, but didn't have the gusto to get it done.  

I will not blame this one on the jockey at all.  I think Albarado gave NP the best chance at winning, but NP does not have the jets or the stamina to finish first going over 1 mile.

Someone said they would bet the longest shot on the board--hope they were talking about the Blue Grass.

Jason,  I think we need a "cute stories" blog. (Sarcasm)

Gee, I don't even know what to make of those 2 preps today.  I've never been particularly high on Interactif, but I thought with his proven synthetic form coupled with the way he was able to close on Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe, he was a shoe in for the Blue Grass.  And he barely shows up.

And Noble's Promise?  He didn't show up at all!  I don't know what to make of that, but I can't believe he'll rebound strong enough in 3 weeks to take the Derby.

Dublin?  Dude!  You had EVERY reason to run right by Line of David and you hung like a wet blanket.  

And still I like you.  Go figure.  

The real tragedy of today might be in the horses that were looking to get in to the Derby and just saw 2 more horses jump ahead of them.  Stately Victor was a synthetic fluke today, I don't think he has a chance in the Derby though I do like his way of going.

Line of David looked fantastic today. Of the Sadler horses, he is the one you'll see in front in the Derby. He pulls like a horse that has to be in the lead.  Sidney's Candy could get a nice stalking trip right behind him and I like his chances even more now.

Clearly, there are some horses headed to Churchill Downs that probably shouldn't be. But how do you keep your horse home fresh off the memory of a 50-1 shot winning it all last year??

This is what bugs me about graded earnings to earn a spot in the derby. Two horse that place second in two major grade 1 preps are on the outside looking in. Jackson and pleasant prince. I think there must be a different way to enter the derby. Here is based on 3 year old earnings.

Derby Twenty

630000 Sidney's Candy

600000 Eskendereya

600000 Line of David

450000 Mission Impazible

450000 Ice Box

450000 Stately Victor

400000 Endorsement

386000 Conveyance

318000 American Lion

291000 Dean's Kitten

270000 Lookin At Lucky

250950 Paddy O'Prado

230000 Super Saver

230000 Jackson Bend

225000 Discreetly Mine

225000 Awesome Act

195000 Rule

191750 Odysseus

180000 Dublin

180000 A Little Warm

180000 Setsuko

My numbers might be a bit off but I think this is a much better representation of who should be in the derby. No Homeboykris

"The thing that surprised me the most is how much fast the top three finishers ran faster then Zenyatta by about 8 lengths...."--draynay

Well, I'm not surprised you decided to bash Zenyatta...again...while running away from the bragging you did about Noble's Promise for the past week.

Of course, you are aware she won loping across the finish line while Line Of David was in full flight to hold off two challengers, but don't let facts cloud your thinking.

In addition, Calvin Borel was interviewed before the AB and he said since he was riding the pace-setter, he planned to slow the pace down.Because that's usually the way to beat a closer.

As a result the AB factions were about 2 seconds slower than those set by Line Of David in the Arkansas Derby.

I read Zenyatta's Beyer for the AB was 95. I imagine Line Of David's figure will be out tomorrow.

it ain't easy...understand now while the word good in your self-inflamed moniker is spelled with a small "g". Great week-end for the "rubber" runners on dirt, eh?

Drayneigh...take on the boys? Were you asleep during last year's "Classic"? Speaking  of which, "How bout' those "rubber" steeds! Gotta use protection for trifection, Neigh!  

Paula...You actually think neigh is "smarter than that"?  On how many fifty-to-one shots a week do you invest?

Whoa! cant wait for the derby and the next big upset.Endorsement flying beautifully under the radar.

Ranagulzion I will not be eating chalk in the Derby this year I will leave that up to you and anyone else that still wants to follow Esky.  I am still going to box Noble and LAL to finish 1/2 in the Derby. I am going to box 5 horses and I know Endorsement and Dublin will the other two and Esky may be the last choice to finish my top 5.  I will wait unil I see some of the works.  My only wish for the Derby is for Albarado to get Noble out of the gate and forwardly placed.  By the way who did your horse beat in the Wood?

Laz...

Thanks for the Biofuel info.  I had her in the BC Juvy filly race and thought she might win, but got slammed in mid-stretch.  Certainly didn`t expect trouble when she was around 8 wide.  Oh well.

Two more derby entrants that Blind Luck could beat easily if her connections change their minds.  I actually had Stately Victor on a few bets, but none with him on top.  Just thought he might be able to hit the board.  Don`t think he`ll do much in the KD, but at least he`s a closer which seems to be a rare commodity this year.  Ark race looked like the FG merry go round race all over again.  Should add to a faster pace @ CD than most of the other pace types are not accustomed to. My 6f guess is around 1:10 or maybe faster come 3 three weeks.  I think Top Avenger`s crazy speed may happen again this year and plenty of highly regarded horses will be catching asthma around the 8th pole.  Lots of decent horses are gonna be left out, but I wouldn`t change the earnings thing one bit.  Perhaps it`ll change the way horses are prepped nowadays and we`ll see them running more often in the future.  Rock Hard Ten and Eddington come to mind.  If I had a Ferrari I wouldn`t just keep it in the garage.  I`d drive it unless the police advised me otherwise.

Whaaaaaa happened?  Seeing that I have imposed a searing jinx on the horses I have picked previously, I'm almost too afraid to declare a Derby favorite.  On the other hand (please forgive me for even daring to jinx you), with past performances as terrible as my own, I really, really liked Stately Victor's race, and his magnificent stride.  He commandeered and commanded the Blue Grass.  He's beautiful and capable.  I think the Derby frontrunners will come from off the pace...Stately Victor and Endorsement have that style.  I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Victor, but I really like you.

1. Eskendereya

2. Mission Impazible

3. Nobles Promise

4. looking at Lucky

Todd Pletcher 1,2

If the winner of the Tampa Derby does not earn enough graded money to get into Kentucky Derby, then they will need to increase their purse.  

Everyone is overlooking Mission Impazible.  We are seeing upsets in almost every race. He is my pick

Woohooo!

I´ve picked Stately Victor just because he´s a Ghostzapper ^^

I never thought he could actually win this race but I thought you never know, just give it a try :) Well well, he looks like a real longshot for the Derby too...

I guess I´m gonna pic my horse for the Derby like I always do, means I´m going with how much I liked their dads.

So, for me, my longshots will be according to their dads: sons of Ghostzapper, Candy Ride, Kitten's Joy and Mineshaft ;)

The Blue Grass needs to be stripped of its graded stakes status.

I loved Afleet Alex and am rooting for Dublin but if he can't win any of his three preps in Arkansas, in my opinion he is a step below what is needed to win the Derby.

It's a shame they sent Odysseus to that ridiculous race and pretty much assured he is out of the Derby.  The graded stakes earnings system needs to be modified.  The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and runner up from the Florida Derby need to be in the Derby gate.

Ranagulzion,

Wow, that arrogant rant was worth of dray.

I guess they don't even need to race the derby this year. I hope you are also prepared to eat crow after Derby day.

Wish I would have picked up faster on Stately Don's turf translating to poly.  Interesting that both winners, yesterday, are so well bred for the turf.  With the Dynaformer mare on the bottom of Stately Victor, and the Mr Leader and Prince John being in the blood of Line of David, both horses are bred for turf, poly and dirt.

GunBow said: "My guess is that Line of David will be the Derby pacesetter.  Thus, I envision Sadler's "bigger" prospect, Sidney's Candy, to rate in 3rd or 4th, and try to work out a trip similar to what Affirmed got in 78'; Sidney's Candy is so calm and cool, I think he should have little problem rating behind horses."

I agree. It's funny you mentioned Affirmed, because I've been thinking this Derby is shaping up to be a very fast, very tight two way horse race like that between Affirmed and Alydar. But so far the horses with Alydar's stalking style  haven't shown they can handle a hot early pace. So I don't think it will be a duel between a stalker and front runner but two front runner's.

  Style-Horse-Graded Earnings

1. OTP-Lookin At Lucky-1,480,000

2. S-Noble's Promise-738,000

3. FR-Rule-645,000

4. FR-Sidney's Candy-630,000

5. FR-Line of David-600,000

6. S-Eskendereya-600,000

7. ?-Mission Impazible-485,934

8. C-Ice Box-457,500

9. C-Stately Victor-451,112

10. S-Endorsement-400,000

11. FR-Conveyance-386,000

12. FR-American Lion-378,000

13. ?-Dublin-373,208

14. FR-Super Saver-363,832

15. C-Discreetly Mine-340,000

16. ?-Dean's Kitten-326,475

17. ?-Interactif-307,950

18. C-Awesome Act-285,000

19. FR-Paddy O'Prado-250,950

20. ?-Homeboykris-250,500

After watching the replays of both KD preps run yesterday, I have noticed a few things that escaped me at the time because my eyes tend to follow the horse of my choice and I'm not fully aware of what everybody else is doing.

First, I would like to comment on the beautiful ride Alan Garcia gave Stately Victor in the Blue Grass Stakes. It was outstanding. He saved ground, was patient, moved at the right time and was rewarded with his horse winning in spectacular fashion. I consider this team legitimate contenders in the KD. We all expect the pace to be fast there and he has proven (to me at least) that he can close effectively and that after 1 1/8 miles there was more left in the tank. Completely unknown to me before, he is now in my top 5.

Line of David, a gutsy front runner in the Arkansas Derby impressed me also but less than SV. It seems to me that at 1 1/4 miles he could not hold off a horse with a more explosive kick than Super Saver or Dublin. Nevertheless it was a gritty performance on his part and I'm very happy for Jon Court who gets very little recognition. Could LofD and Jon C. team up for a victory in the KD? It's possible but in MHO not probable.

At first, I didn't consider the trouble that Noble's Promise encountered at the start to be very significant. We have seen horses recover and win after much worse. Then, I looked at his PPs and saw that he is usually forwardly placed and I can see that he was taken out of his game from the start. The KD is not kind to horses who can not overcome adversity. I may be very wrong but I will not include him in my list of horses who have a good chance of winning at CD on May 1st.

There's more but I've opined long enough and I need to study some more if I'm ever going to unravel that feast of quality horses we are served with, this year.

Saw the following quotes over at DRF--considering the grief I've gotten here from poster's like Lazmannick over the way I judge racing ability--I couldn't resist:

On Eskendereya:

"The biggest question Eskendereya must answer is how he will react to what might be a trickier pace scenario in the Derby.

His Wood Memorial paceline closely matches his Fountain of Youth numbers of 64-75-84-92-F95, and in both cases he was within easy striking distance in moderately paced races. But if Eskendereya had been in last year’s Kentucky Derby and had run at that rate of speed, he would have been ninth after a half-mile – and this Derby field should have more speed than last year’s did.

If Eskendereya is 10 lengths off the lead amidst a shower of sand with a half-mile to run, instead of breathing down the neck of the pacesetter, will that professionalism evaporate? And if he is hustled by John Velazquez to stay closer, will he perform as a confused Point Given did in 2001 under similar circumstances? In 2007, Curlin was another who didn’t make that pace adjustment smoothly.

My ESPN colleague Jerry Bailey has also drilled into my head – and he should know – that winning the Kentucky Derby in a 20-horse scrum often requires a horse with quick acceleration and the ability to make multiple moves, enabling a jockey to capitalize on openings as soon as those opportunities appear"

What I have been saying all along =) (I don't know about the multiple moves part, since Rule runs a lot like Rachel Alexandra, at constant high cruising speed, but he certainly will be clear of trouble before any other entrant, barring a catastrophe at the break, and being at the front will keep him safe for the entire race).

On Sidney's Candy:

"We know synthetics are much less favorable than dirt to early speed. We know that in Southern California, for example, jockeys have adjusted to this reality by riding less aggressively, and trainers are trying to put less speed into their horses.

But we also see the pendulum occasionally swing too far the other way, when quality front-runners are given such an effortless lead that even on synthetics they become very difficult to catch.

The poster child for the latter scenario is Sidney’s Candy. On dirt, his pacefigs would be that of a deep closer. In the Santa Anita Derby, he led every step.

What this means for the Kentucky Derby is open to much interpretation.

Clearly, Sidney’s Candy has much more natural speed than he has been required to show at Santa Anita. But in a pace battle with Rule, American Lion, and possibly Super Saver and other speed, his easy world could be turned upside down – unless, of course, he’s the kind of horse that can rate patiently and kick past the front-runners with plenty of mile-and-a-quarter stamina.

No one knows if Sidney’s Candy can do that – not John Sadler, not Joe Talamo, and certainly not horseplayers. In my experience, most horses in this situation fail miserably. In my opinion, Sidney's Candy is worth the risk only if he has considerable value on the Derby odds board."

GunBow has made a good case for Sid, and I hope he's right because we will have a very exciting race that way. But I'm sticking with Rule, and his consistent high 90's Beyers, his maturity (as one of the oldest 3 year olds), his solid foundation from having raced almost every month from July-December in 2009, and then coming back to win off of a 6 week lay off in the Sam Davis and hanging on for a brave third in a fast Florida Derby a month later, followed by another 6 week layoff.

Due to his age, Rule's ability to race well after a longish layoff should be judged more like a 3 year old in the Travers, not a 3 in the Derby IMHO.

Draynay,

Who did Eskendereya beat in the Wood? Every horse that showed up. NP and Dublin had no excuses yesterday other than the fact they are both too slow. Why can't you see that?

painful for me as well Jayjay. I was closing off the pick 4 in the Blue Grass with the four favorites, includind Paddy who looked like the winner off the turn. Stately Victor? Please.

papillion, let me remind you that Jerry Bailey has not picked a Derby winner since he retired and I still laugh at him picking Pyro over Big Brown.  Jerry was a great rider but he is a lousy handicapper.  longwaytomay let me remind you that a Derby prep is a DERBY PREP.  Dublin looked good and missed by a foot or two but is now coing into the Derby ready to go and battle tested.  Noble got a terrible start but I already know he is a couple of lengths better then Dublin so I am hoping for a better start in the Derby.  There is going to be a lot of speed in the Derby and those that sit back off that speed will do well when the real running begins.  The fact is Esky beat a horse twice that is not good enough to make it in the Derby.  Big deal.  Never bet into a losing streak.  Let me give you another hint.  Mr. Pletcher is NOT betting 1 dollar on Esky to win so why would you ?

Jason:

Noble's Promise, his status for the Derby is questionable. Ken McPeek, who trains Noble's Promise, on Sunday said he was "not sure" if Noble's Promise would run.

"He came out of it with several cuts and scrapes [that] happened at the start," said McPeek, who added that Noble's Promise had a "slight lung infection."

McPeek said there would be "no decision until he gets these issues resolved."

Gary Lynn, I do think Draynay knows Zenyatta is up there with the greats. He isn't dumb, whether you like his picks/posts or not. No, I never invest in 50-1 shots (or any other shots for that matter) LOL. I invest in antique and vintage purses. In fact, I wrote a book on them (see Amazon.com- A PASSION FOR PURSES).

papillon 11 Apr 2010 1:10 P

Hey very good post.....stick with those DRF & ESPN guys.....they pick the winner every year don't they......Now's the time to get serious.  My picks are Lucking At Lucky and Endrosement.....I'll give you some advice and that's don't take advice from the experts.  This blog and every other blog has pounded home certain sure fire winners of both the FOY and the Ark D.  How many of them were wrong......what's that.....99.9%?  Just because Baily was a good jock doesn't necessary make him an expert commentator......in fact the only sure thing around the race track these days is that Zenyatta is going to win.  LOL

RiverCitySmitty

I had her too.....I couldn't believe what happened in the stretch because she looked like a sure-fire winner at something like 40-1 and then gets body slammed by Negligee.  The irony is, Biofuel is a Canadian bred and she got body checked by a filly that would be voted Canadian Juv Filly Champ.  Keep an eye on her this year.  She has a run all day style and should make some noise.  LOL

For the people that still do not believe in ESKENDEREYA , let me tell you that he is a STALKING horse and whenever the derby pace is strong or easy , he will run his own pace , and when horses are call to run he will be the one that has the true derby distance stamina. Something contrary will be SYDNEY'S CANDY that the last furlong will be endless for him. I played S C in SANTA ANITA , because he has no enemies and because of the pace , but , gentlemen , the KENTUCKY DERBY will be a complete different scenario.

Ms ZK, What?

I meant that you can post all the wonderful things you want to say about Zenyatta, everything that she so rightfully deserves and the naysayers won't ruin it all.

Steve won't allow it to turn into a hatred of a horse that is having an amazing career. Nor will he allow it against Rachel. It would finish before it started for the likes of Draynay and the rest of the bashers and bickerers.

You commented about me getting worked up but you're looking to feud. I made my point clear. I wanted to read/comment about the Derby horses prior to this weekend because the biggest preps were the last two weekends. Now maybe we can focus on the Derby and the works and all leading up to that, if it's permissible?

Hot Springs eemed muggy and it seemed that the track WAS playing slow LDP.

Noble? I seriously doubt the colt can get the 1 1/4. He also didn't have near the problems that can occur in the Derby and/or others have had and placed better.

Dublin is progressing and even though he hung a bit he seemed to bog down as well. I think he'll like a bit more distance a slightly premature 3 wide move, but he's still learning and progressing. Lets see how all the works go for all of them at CD.

Dray? LAL will probably be a co-fave on Derby Day.  The bad ride in the SA Derby will bring forgiveness.

I DVR'd the NBC broadcast and watched it here at home. Realized that Neumie picked Dublin and Battaglia agreed but finally went with NP. Those two are in the same league with Draynay. Chalk eaters and the curse of death.

Jason, Paddy almost got us Irish guys up there. If Dublin would have won it would have been an all-Irish day. LOL

Ican only imagine the pain of the guy that had the $10,000 bet on Paddy. Ugh, poor guy....

I think someone put the kabosh on Noble's Promise. I think he's out of the running.

DRF is reporting that NP may be out of the Derby and ran with a slight lung infection.  Wonder how the owners feel today?

nobles promise is not winning the derby neither is line of david simply because of pedigree. the winner of the derby will be a horse who has 4 or more weeks rest into the derby as for eskndereya he will bounce and get hit with traffic then the excuses. rajiv maragh i felt BS that race because he wants to ride mission impazible which i feel is inferior to odysseus.

Hey Jude, That's a pretty happy song you're singing now.

Stately Victor and Line of David???  I never even heard of either of them, much less bet on them.

Draynay,

You may have to jump off Noble's Promise for the Kentucky Derby.

I just read on DRF he came out of the Arkansas Derby with a "slight lung infection" and Trainer Ken McPeek says his status is questionable for the Big D.

That may also explain why, according to the race write-up on Bloodhorse, Noble's Promise got within striking distance in the stretch, then lugged in and weakened.

Ranagulzion

You're putting way too much emphasis on pedigree and not enough on the perils of getting to the Derby and having lady luck on your side during the running of the 10f stampede. Plus,isn't Eskendereya o/o a Slew mare? And I noticed you purposely omitted Ice Box in your disregard for anything AP Indy/Slew lined influence. Which brings me to your canonizing infatuation with Pletcher and his horses.

Interactif?...really? When and where has he shown the ability to run huge in the Derby? Maybe you're talking about the American Derby on grass @ Arlington Park?..I doubt he'll even be in the Ky Derby,he's a grass horse.

As far as the other Pletcher horses you think will clean house in the Ky Derby,well stranger things have happened. But,I will not be looking for Discreetly Mine,Rule,Super Saver or MI to hit the board.No Way. Eskendereya is a good horse,but watch what happens when he's stuck in mid-pack chasing legit splits,getting bumped/jostled and dirt kicked in his face.All these scenarios will be new to him,he won't have his leisurely canter he's been used to lately. I'm afraid you're setting yourself up for a big disappointment my overly hyper brethren,..have your oxygen mask handy come May 1st. Stay thirsty my friend and keep reaching for the stars.

My least favorite words to utter during a horse race:  "Who in the %^@# is that coming up?"

LOL Todd told you that did he Dray?

How do you even know ANYTHING about what ANY trainer bets or doesn't bet on a race or a horse?

I'm not sure what will happen at this point. Lets see how they work and how they take to the CD surface.

But don't let Dray's dislike of Todd and the ravings of the lunatic get in the way of liking whatever horse.

I just hope Noble DOES go so he'll leave his voodoo bad luck off of MY pick.

I was a little disappointed that Dublin couldnt close the deal. He looked like a winner at the eigth pole but just hung. Still think this is Todd's year, he is loaded and too good a horseman to be denied for much longer. The Bluegrass was a major letdown unless you have a Ghostzapper, boy did that sire need this G1 winner.

Draynay,

 I'll wait until all the works and post positions have been drawn before I post all my bets for the Derby. I don't believe you ever posted your bets last year but I'm pretty sure you had POTN and that's why you were so pissed at MTB. I could be wrong about that, so this year I will post my bets BEFORE the Derby and propose that you do the same. I already have Eskendereya at 22 to 1 in the 1st future pool. That bet will have some effect on how I play on May 1, so keep that in mind. I'm sure you think that is lost money, but I think it might be the best future bet I ever made.

Tim G,

I never commented that you were getting worked up. Somebody else did. You started this argument and now you say that I want to feud. I only defended myself against your unfair mischaracterizations of my comments. Nothing more. In your last two posts directed at me, you resorted to playing "cute" with my blog name. I found it reminiscent of the name calling practiced by children and immature adults.

If you object to the content or manner of certain comments you may simply skip over them. If you want complete control over both may I suggest that you create your own blog.

If you prefer to focus on the TC and the preps, by all means, be my guest, this blog certainly is open to all and you have a lot to contribute on this topic.

This is the last time I comment on this matter. I'm moving on and I hope you do also. Peace!

Tim, instead of putting words in my mouth why don't you put money in my pocket.  I don't dislike Mr. Pletcher and for the record I think he is a very good trainer.  I just think his record with 3 year old colts is awful in Triple Crown races. I could do no worse. Ted, I spoke those exact words many times. CV, if my boy Noble's Promise can't go or is not 100% I will have to choose between LAL and my dark horse Endorsement.

Carlos in Cali,

Name your derby pick and I'll tell you three Pletcher horses that can finish in front of him ...come on Bro, name your horse Mr Handicapper.

Regarding the AP Indy pedigree issue, I like Ap Indy progenies but I don't rate them as horses that will mature in time for Derby success.  Now I now that exceptions can occur (for which I'm still waiting) and in the case of Ice Box, he has Derby-winner-producing influences Mr Prospector, Alydar and Belle d'jour (Spend A Buck's dam) within the first four generations, to offset the developmental lag of AP Indy.  Its funny how a lot of what you call the perils and tough luck of the derby trail happen most frequently to the AP Indy colts that are being forced-ripened.

Super Saver is not an AP Indy line colt.  He is from the Derby-winner-producing sire line of Monarchos and Majestic Prince.  Seattle Slew in the 3rd generation of his Dam line is augmented by the presence of Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Buckpasser within the five generations of the tail-female family (simply awesome classic pedigree).  Carlos I guarantee you that Super Saver hits the board in the Derby (you are seriously miscalculating on this one,s Arkansas Derby performance). I respect your handicapping skills and I urge you to look again at Super Saver my friend (if you can get over your Odysseus induced disappointment ...which I warned you of).

As for Esky (the 2nd coming of Big Red), don't you worry about me being disappointed ...I know full well that there is no such thing as a racing certainty (especially in a twenty horses stampede as you call it) but Esky comes pretty close ...and I can hardly wait for another awe-inspiring, goose-bump-giving runaway victory on May day.  I figure he may get tested this time and that Johnny V may flash that whip which is gonna set off those "after-burners" in his lungs and legs, spelling anhillation for the competition ...can you cath the vision Carlos (lol).  Stay blind for the moment my friend ...your eyes may be opened in May. Shalom.  

Line of David's victory shows shades of Sidney's Candy's victory in the Santa Anita Derby, only he wasn't as able to maintain the high cruising speed that Sidney showed. Don't think he will be anything more than a pace factor in the Derby.

Stately Victor's victory I'll compare to Eskendereya's victory in the Wood, with the ease with which he put away this group, in similar time to Eske's, all be it with a different style. Think he will be a definite threat in the Derby if he takes to the track.

This is going to be a typically tough Derby to handicap, I don't think I'll be surprised at all if a longshot jumps up at Churchill to take it. Whoever wins it I still think will have to catch Sidney's Candy and I'm not sure we've seen anyone that might be able to do that.

Just want to say what a nice ride once again by Desormeaux on Paddy.

I like the blog regarding Rule he consistently runs in the 90's and he is an older 3 year old that has high cruising speed. I have a funny feeling that Rule will hit the board derby day dont look into one bad race it doesnt mean anything!

Ted:

I was saying who the #! is that in the Blue Grass.  I love this sport and follow it closely, but I had never seen the name Stately Victor until I saw the Blue Grass entries and knew little about him until after the race.

zenyatta could run in the foster id love to see that.

Ted & GunBow,

Most of us were doing the same thing as Victor came charging home. I'm sure also, that most of us, turned back to his PP's in search of what we had missed. He wasn't the longest shot in the field but his odds were certainly luscious! I hope people keep ignoring him because I like him a lot.

Dray,

    I am begging you not to pick Looking at Lucky, Esky, Backtalk, Mission Impazible, Rule, Jackson Bend, Or Dublin in the Derby !!! Those are my favorites and I don't want you to curse them.  You have 13 others to choose from, You can have Endorsement as your pick, Since I don't think he has any shot, Even more so now that he is your flavor of the moment...

Hey Dray , How about Nobles Promise now... Who are you going to jump on now.. Oh Dublin went down fighting but he is not good enough to win the Derby and I don't care how many excuses you can come up with for Nobles promise he didn't run well and if they run him in the derby you can expect a same result if not worse. This horse can't get the distance nor can Dublin...

I love everyone posts on who is going to win the derby. It solidifies some thoughts on certain horses on my radar and opens up my eyes on others I may have forgotten about. As for right now for me it is about Eskendereya winning the derby. His 3 races this year have been magnificent. One thing that has made me a believer is that Pletcher himself has said that he actually feels he can get the 10 furlongs in the derby. To me, that is huge information. Other horses are on my next level but things can change with workouts,defections and post positions.

As of tonight, Eskendereya is the horse to beat but I am always willing to my eyes and ears open for the 20 days.

I will be in Vegas hoping to have a great night on that first Saturday in May.

This Derby picture just keeps getting more and more confusing... Are any of these horses as good as their prep wins would lead us to believe? Where did these two (Stately Victor, Line of David) come from?!?! I had flashes of Mine That Bird when Stately Victor came roaring on by Paddy (who the #!@% is that is RIGHT, Ted!). Makes me pretty sad that Odysseus won't even get into the gate, barring some type of miracle...thought he at least deserved a shot.

Anyway, I came out a winner twice this week, though not at the track.  I got a brand new piece of bling on my left ring finger, and my future stepson (who is 4) watched the races with me and now wants to go to Saratoga this summer. That's one new young fan for the sport!

Laz...  Biofuel and Negligee were voted  CO-Canadian filly champions.  Neglgee`s slam of Biofuel kept the latter from being outright Can champ along with a probable/possible BC win.  That was Biofuel`s first race since and she sure looked impressive off the 5 month layoff.

Jason...you may say "no way" to Stately Victor, but exactly where did Odysseus finish?  I gave Odysseus the benefit of a dirt horse not doing well on poly track..but he did well to start...just can't get the distance.  2 horses who have it all..tactical running, being able to stay unnoticed in the pack, hitting the finish with energy to spare, breeding...Stately Victor and Endorsement.

Dray,

I am being serious in this post, this is not a shot being taken. Even if NP is 100% healthy going into the derby why would you want to play him?  Mentally, this last race could have done a lot to him.  Look at what happened to Friesan Fire in last years derby.  He got cut up real bad in the derby, they tried to run him back in the Preakness and he was even worse.  

Horses have a strong memory and sometimes bad experiences can ruin a horse if you push them back to the track too fast.  They would be better off waiting until Preakness or even Belmont if they think he can cover the distance.  NP will be too gunshy out of the gate next time around, and if that next time is the derby, he has no shot.

I am probably one of the few people who even knew who Stately Victor was before the race. He is a Ghostzapper son and after his maiden victory last year, I put him in my Equibase 'stable'  - so I always saw his workouts and race notifications. I was just about to delete him as he hadn't done anything when he won the Bluegrass. I looked at his pedigree again last night and it is very good. However, it does seem more suited to turf. It will be interesting to see what he does in the Derby.

Ouch, there's only ever been 2 "Big Reds" in racing...it's impossible for me to even consider another one as the 3rd coming until it has accomplished the same feats, with the same record breaking efforts...♥☺♥

Dray: You did THAT bad with your 'handicapping' that you have to beg me for money?

Sorry you'll have to get it the hard way, you'll have to EARN it.

LOL

You have talked enough trash about Todd that, well, if THAT is the way you talk about people you like and respect???? You have a skewed perspective on life. Well you have that anyway, but....

Todd seems to have some nice horses but you can be the best trainer in the world, leading the standings and dominating the sport for years and may NEVER win a Derby.

Or lightning strikes and you win it, maybe even several times. You can have the best horse, the best pedigree and it just may not happen. If you really understood racing and went with something besides chalk, didn't let your 'ideas' of what makes a great trainer get in the way of that you'd know.

The Derby isn't the end all and be all to some trainers. Todd would love to win it but he focuses on a lot of different types of races. Frankly if it was the end all and be all once a guy wins it he'd retire, wouldn't he? Plus, if Todd wasn't good with 3 year olds (it starts before that too)how does he manage to win and perform so well with his prep horses?

20 horses in the gate, the 150,000 people in the stands and all the hoopla leading up to the race are real factors in what happens in the race. Some horses are suited for it, some aren't. Finding that ONE horse is what we're all chasing.

Oh, didn't you trash Chip Wooley last year? He won the Derby so in your eyes he should be super... can't have it both ways.

Well, from the looks of things the derby trail contenders are dropping off one by one,  Lets see, Nobles Promise ain't looking  promising at all with his problems, and Odyseuss, he has a bone chip, so he ain't looking up to the derby either.

Well, its that time of the year for now, its time for the widdling down of the contenders, for one reason  or another.

Jason:

Aikenite, who beat only one horse in the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, will not press forward and run in the Kentucky Derby.Aikenite was 24th in graded stakes earnings following Saturday's races. His defection, and the uncertain status of a few horses above him on the graded earnings list, could help runners like Make Music for Me and Setsuko get into the Derby.

I think someone put the kabosh on Noble's Promise. I think he's out of the running.

2-cents 11 Apr 2010 3:18 PM

DRF is reporting that NP may be out of the Derby and ran with a slight lung infection.  Wonder how the owners feel today?

Trebloc 11 Apr 2010 3:30 PM

It's called the draynay curse folks. Run don't hide from his picks. The only time he gets it right is when a big favorite wins and millions pick the same horse he does anyway.

Lookin at Lucky is a plastic horse so he has no shot in the Derby at all.  

Draynay 27 Jan 2010 9:55 AM

Anything from California will be a toss for me.

draynay 15 Feb 2010 8:22 PM

LAL to Santa Anita ?  Scratch that horse from your Derby pick now.

draynay 26 Mar 2010 6:24 PM

Yes, maybe California can produce another great Derby winner like Giacamo.  Maybe the California horse could just have their own Plastic Bowl or call it the Super Plastic Bowl.

draynay 28 Mar 2010 2:51 PM

I will have to choose between LAL and my dark horse Endorsement.

draynay 11 Apr 2010 8:49 PM

So now he likes LAL? Sorry pal that bandwagon was full long before you woke up. Year after year this guy just keeps embarrassing himself with the smack talk then flip flops.

It Aint Good.  So the west can now add some more to the list of CA horses who fail to "show up for the big one."

(1).  Blind Luck

(2).  Zenyatta

(3).  Line of David

In fact I see your now touting Sidney's Candy.

Looks to me like we have a pretty good "Western Sweep" of the Kentucky Derby Preps.

I would compare Zenyatta's last eigth to that of Esky's.  Esky ran 137 and change for a mile but was 8 lengths clear.  He like Zenyatta could have won by 15 but why?  

So RA won't go?  Zenyatta now has to search down Macho Again and the other "Wayward" stars for HOY?

Dranay and Lazzmannick--

As far as I can tell, I am the only person picking Rule right now--pro or amateur--and have been with Rule from the very start. It wasn't Jerry Baily or Randy Moss that inspired me to choose him--and I doubt that either will have him as his pick come Derby day (AFAIK, neither of them have him as their pick right now).

Pro-tip: the words outside of the quotation marks are attributable to the person doing the quoting LOL

So Odysseus has a bone chip on his knee,no wonder he gave up the ghost in the BG.Too bad.

Ranagulzion:  As of now,I'm leaning towards a couple of ponies by default,but I won't take a stand til' the draw.I'll say that Ice Box is one of them though. Come on,I'll quickly state a few AP Indy lined colts who placed or ran in the money @ the Ky Derby.

Aptitude)2nd to FuPeg whom the late Bobby Frankel said would've won had he had any racing room going into the far turn.- Atswhatimtalkinbout')3rd/4th who was flying at the end with loads of trouble throughout.- Dont Get Mad)3rd/4th who also was flying at the end after winning the Derby Trial the week before.- Steppenwolfer)ran a respectable 3rd. So,I highly doubt AP Indy bloodlines are a detriment in horses being able to mature in time for Derby success. AP Indy himself was a multiple Gr.I winning 2/3yo,was the morning-line favorite for the Derby before scratching and he consistently sires such high class runners.I Want Revenge was a beast once he switched to the dirt & heading into the Derby,he's back in training now so beware.Can't wait to see him lock-horns with your 'Caballo Loco numero tres',QR lol. Like I said,luck has a lot to do with it.Pedigree is part of the equation and you can't get any better than Indy' when it comes to 'Classic breeding'.

BTW:  I mentioned Eskendereya being o/o a Seattle Slew mare,not Super Saver.  Shalom in the home.

RANAGULZION

I think you're a little man that likes to talk big. At least I had the stones to step up to the plate and promise to take a three month exile from Jason's blog if your pal Todd wins the Derby. What are you putting up?  Zero.

DRAYNAY

Question? Why is it everytime your wrong you then forget the fact? Recently you gave selections for the A. Blossom and you picked ZENYATTA TO FINISH THIRD! Don't detect you commenting about that,only how slow she ran. Hope you realize that was just a little more than a workout! Why did she need to run a 110 Beyer? She won,that's the bottom line. If your friends hadn't almost ran RA into the ground last year,maybe she would've been there to face Zenyatta.

You are so right, M.Relva?  Had they not buried her in the ground up to her knees being whipped like crap by CB, she would be a better horse today.  All of that for HOTY, and look at the price he has had to pay since then, One defeat and cant' get her back up to par.

And if he can get her up to par, she won't stay there, because her first race against Zneyatta will not only be her second/third defeat , but it will also wipe her out.  This ain't no Macho Again she will be running with,  Steve A. got a first hand look at the queen last friday,   he was quoted as to saying "wow", himself....He may get RA to run, but I guarantee they won't enter in any race with Zenyatta anytime soon. I bet we don't see RA in the S. Foster.

Nothing has changed for me after this weekend. My top three:

Eskendereya

LAL

Sidney's Candy

Carlos in Cali,

You may have confused my position on Seattle Slew as a broodmare sire with that of Professor COLDFACTS.  Contrary to the latter's view I happen to regard Seattle Slew as a Derby-winner-producing influence (except through AP Indy when that one is on top in the pedigree chart).  Seattle Slew sired Swale to win the Derby and was the grandsire of Funny Cide's dam, Belle's Goodcide (by Slewacide).  Therefore Seattle Slew represents classic fortification in Esky's pedigree.  Only Super Saver's pedigree is on par IMHO.

I too am glad to see IWR on the comeback trail and looking forward to him facing His Royal Highness Quality Road (he graduated from the "El Numero Uno" class with his tour d'force in the Donn (LOL).  Only a Triple Crown conquering Eskendereya, an undefeated Zenyatta (assuming more Grade 1 dirt competition) and a resurgent Rachel Alexandra can challenge him for HOTY this season, again IMHO.

Mike Relva,

I promise to meet you here after the Derby and eat any Crow you wish to feed me if Pletcher fails to win the Kentucky Derby. Deal?

longwaytomay.  No way Dray had POTN!!!  I think he is making alot more sense this year.  1/4 of the field is now wired for speed (Line of David, Sidney's Candy, Conveyance, American Lion, XXX).  I'm not sure what to make of Esky's mile walk with an 8 length lead (close to 1:38) either.  There will be more heat up front this go around.  Can he take it? or will he do an "RA" and think "this is kind of new..someone running with me."  One of those five speed balls could pull a "Hard Spun."

Like POTN Lookin at Lucky is a millionaire and he finished better in the BC Juv than did POTN.  Bob seems to have the shipping/dirt kinks already worked out.  Troubled trips often result in winners next time out.  

And N-P...the horse is sick.  It happens.  He's had a pretty tough campaign. When he is feeling good he runs every race.

Householder,

 Why would you say that Dray could not have had POTN last year? He is a decent handicapper and POTN was the most logical choice for last years race. Just because he likes to be a jerk and a blowhard doesn't mean he can't cap. He only says the thing he does to stir the pot.

This Saturday April 17th U.C. Davis is having their annual Picnic Day.  It's a great opportunity to get an up close look at their Vet/Equine and broodmare management programs. Lots of research coming out of there on stem cell as well as synthetics. Sacramento CA.  Stop afterwards and see Bo Derek.    

Householder,

 Please don't compare any of those horses to Hard Spun. None of them are as good as he was. Not even close.

RANAGULZION

I don't hear you offering to stop blogging here for even two weeks! That's not like my deal of three months. I'm not going to lose!

Jason,

      Question, What is up with Drosselmeyer?  I just read last week that he was going to go in this weekend's Coolmore Lexington Stakes, He just had a good work on Saturday, But, I just read a article on DRF and there was no mention of him being in the race?  I hope he does race because I think he could be a force in the Derby and hope his connections aren't being scared away because of the earning's question mark?  If he doesn't go, Would love to see Uptowncharlybrown win the race for Mr. Alan Seewald...

PHONY JJ

Hey,thanks! How are you and who do you like for the Derby! Zenyatta did it again,just like we knew she would. You've always showed your support.

Mike, wake me when Zenyatta starts running against the boys.  longwaytomay I agree Hard Spun was a stud !!!  I would love to see RA meet him in the breeding shed.

Todd is leaning towards NOT running Interactif, Uh Oh Bango may not run, who knows about NP and whoever else may fall by the wayside. Should be an interesting 18 days!

I still don't know how I am going to play this derby.  Last year I tried going for the Oaks-Woodford-Derby pick 3, and was on track but missed with the Derby horse.

I have a feeling I will likely try the same thing and probably include about 7 horses for my derby picks.

My picks will likely have a sprinkle of Winstar, Pletcher, and one or two closers.  No Dublin, NP, no Keeneland or Turfway Park horses, definitely not Homeboykris, likely no Aqueduct horses, and will not include Line of David.  Not sure where that leaves me but that has to be about half thrown out.

I am interested to see how many defections there will be.

Jason:

I know you like this horse, just a little news. Trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday that Interactif "would have to work lights out" on the dirt at Churchill Downs in order progress to the Derby.

"I don't want to completely rule the race out, but I would call him doubtful at this time," Pletcher said from the Palm Meadows training center in Florida.

Mike Relva,

Putting myself at your mercy if Pletcher's Derby bid fails is so gruesome that it makes your 3 months long hiatus seem like a walk in the park ...come on Bro what more do you want?

If Esky wins the Triple Crown I might retire from these blogs anyway, having seen the 2nd coming of the immortal Secretariat come to pass ...that might thrill you more.

It's starting to look chalky on top! The top two, Esky and Lucky, then it's a long way to #3.....I'm looking for a sleeper, I like Endorsement, also I like American Lion, as you can throw out his two races over pro ride--not necessarily because he could not handle it--mostly cause he was too amped up at the gate--he has the Tiznow stamina and he was impressive in Illinois, turning back a very nice NY Bred, also that field was strung out--very windy day--in other words, American Lion has a lot of upside, and he's a beautiful horse, as well...alas, the top two will take some beating...

Ranagulzion

I've got a good recipe for CROW.  I recieved an ENDORSEMENT from the handicapping gods for adding a little LAL suace to the mix. LOL

Mike Relva

How was your trip to Cali?  Glad you're back.  I hear that Zenyatta woke up this moring wondering when she was going to run in the AB.  The last thing she remembers was having a workout last Friday afternnon. LOL  

Where is Endorsement training now?

IT AINT EASY BEING GOOD

While I was in CA. last week I happen to notice your little list you compiled with my name among others'. I  could put you on a list also,problem is don't think they would post it here. lol

So, Statley Victor wins the Bluegrass? I know the Conway's quite well. I am trying to talk my way into the winner's circle with them on Derby day.....

Oh wait, that would mean he would have to win.

Let's see, broke maiden on turf, has not run a lick on dirt, and then wins on polytrack? Anyone see the problem here???

Rachel is running derby weekend. 99% sure.

Esky towers over the field.

Relva, see you on the blog in July Buddy!

Pletcher could take the trifecta by himself.

ESKY, RULE, SUPERSAVER, M Impazzible,

Weirder things have happened.

Endorsement is shaping up to be the wise-guy horse in this Derby.  When is the last time the wise-guy horse won the Derby?

Endorsement is working very well at Keeneland.

Dray bet a California horse that had only been on synthetics with sub 100 Beyers.  I've been "listening" to this blog and his rantings about "plastic" long enough to know that POTN was not his top pick.  No way!  Don't even have to review the blogs.

Mike, I like Esky, but I am going to say it looks like the so called long shots are hitting finish lines, but as usual horses are worn out now before they even attempt the three legs of the crown,   I am looking to Esky, wouldnt mind LAL. That is if they can stay sound enough to make it to the derby.

LAZMANNICK

Let me know when your email problem is fixed. As for the trip,it was great as usual. Spent a few days in Santa Barb. and also visited the Tin Man(which I do usually). Got stuck overnite in Dallas on the return back home.

Tim G.,

Uh Oh Bango DEFINITELY won't be running in the Derby. He came out of the Arkansas Derby last week with a fractured left front cannon bone and will be out 4-6 months.

Yes I read that Uh Oh is out, today.

Like I said, we'll probably see a number of defections and question marks. Been through so many of these nothing surprises me. Even NP making a miraculous recovery.

A sincere question here, Dray. Did you even know Endorsement existed prior to the SP Derby? You're basing on the fact that he beat a horse that can't get the distance and is most likely a miler?

LAZMANNICK

Let me know when your email is up and running. The trip was fun,thanks.

I just watched the replay of Arkansas Derby. Did Dublin jockey Terry Thompson lose his whip somewhere around the top of the stretch? It looked like he might be hand whipping him.

Mike Relva

Glad you had a great trip.  My e-mail is up, I think.  Send me one to test it out. I'm going to be loading in Windows Seven soon.  I don't know if doing that will wipe out my existing e-mails.  LOL

Lazmannick:

Your post on Zenyatta wanting to know when she was supposed to race in the AB is hilarious,  True as it can be though.

CAn you even believe she horses that didnt face her, Where in the world was the great competition she should have had to face???

Scared, maybe.

sodapopkid

Shakin' in their hooves.  LOL

ESKENDEREYA 201.4  .  ENDORSEMENT  202.1   .  STATELY VICTOR 202.3  .CONVEYANCE 202.4  . LINE OF DAVID  203.0   . LOOKIN AT LUCKY 203.1  . NOBLE PROMISE  203.1   . INTERACTIF 203.1  . RULE  203.2  . DEAN'S KITTEN  203 .2 . SYDNEY'S CANDY  203. 4 .  DUBLIN 204.1 , and the rest any chance at all .

All the downers of Zenyatta ought to be ashamed of themselves after they yep their flaps for her to run on dirt and when she does , she is there and no damn competition to take her on. Embarrassing, as it can be...16-0, who will dare to take her on...

CONVEYANCE is a true derby candidate . He is among the best horses of this generation, and I do not undersatand why people say he is a miler , WELL , HARD SPUN was  like him and without a STREET SENSE he would have galloped the derby, For me he has more distance than SYDNEY'S CANDY who is a miler that never have been fought in front. If LOOKIN AT LUCKY would have run the SUNLAND PARK derby would have lose to ENDORSEMENT .

UH OH BANGO is a horse without any chance in the DERBY , the best place would be last , luckily he would  not run to give chance to a real outsider , I don't understand why people waste their time mentioning such a poor candidate . It's a pity that a horse like PLEASANT PRINCE can not run the DERBY because of his earnigs because in the distance he have a lot of chance.

the derby winners in this order will be :  looking at lucky, the eskendereya, then rule.  i have to add the best kd i ever seen was mtb in 09.  hurray for the underdog!

Dr. Grace.  One has to like the Holy Bull line on CONVEYANCE.

if Noble's Promise run in the Derby the order of finish will be:

1. Noble's Promise

2. Lookin at Lucky

3. Paddy O Prado

4. Dublin

5. Eskendereya

6. Super Saver

the winners in this order sre looking at lucky, eskendereya, rule.  just wait and see.