Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Okay, so I have some major adjusting to do from my last Top 10 on March 14. Odysseus (previously No. 1) was injured in a disappointing Blue Grass, Noble's Promise (No. 4) was banged up after a disappointing Arkansas Derby, Interactif (No. 6) might not even be entered in the Derby after a disappointing Blue Grass, Drosselmeyer (No. 7) does not have enough earnings and won't go in the Coolmore Lexington, which is also disappointing, D' Funnybone (No. 9) is going to wait for the Preakness, and Caracortado (No. 10) and Schoolyard Dreams (No. 10a) aren't as good as I thought-both disappointing.

Anyone notice a "disappointing" theme here?

While only five from my last Top 10 list remain--Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky, Awesome Act, Super Saver, and an iffy Noble's Promise--the good news for me is that they haven't run the Derby yet. Making Top 10 lists two and three months from the race is fun, but in reality it means little. The only thing all of us are judged on is who we settle on for our final picks.

While this will be my last Top 10 list, the order in which I have them listed is by no means final. There is still a lot of handicapping to do, including seeing the horses on the track at Churchill and the Derby draw.

One thing is very clear to me, however, and it is that Eskendereya and Lookin At Lucky have separated themselves from the rest of the pack considerably. The upsets over the weekend did more to eliminate some of the top 3-year-olds than it did move the winners up the ladder. Every horse will have questions to answer as we count down to May 1, but the top 2 have a lot fewer than all the rest.

1. Eskendereya - With each passing prep he looks better. Major issues with him are the small, suspect field he has beaten and slow paces he has run into. But visually he certainly looks like the best of this crop.

2. Lookin At Lucky - If consistency and class are your parameters, he's the one to beat. Santa Anita Derby is a complete toss.

3. Awesome Act - He lost a shoe and was running into a slow pace in the Wood. Throw in the fact that he was expected to bounce anyway and it was a solid effort. Watch the race again. Leparoux was strangling him for eight furlongs and he wasn't far off Eskendereya. It appears he has a lot left in the tank.

4. Paddy O'Prado - Failed in his only start on dirt, but that was in the slop at Churchill. He's an improving horse coming into the race the right way.

5. Super Saver - I like that he rated and ran a winning type race in Arkansas Derby. What I didn't like is that he had the entire stretch to get by a horse who set a fast pace, but couldn't.

6. Noble's Promise - Arkansas Derby was a disaster in every way. We'll find out soon if he is still going on to Churchill. If he does, he has major question marks with ability to handle distance, but he is still as classy as any this year and has tactical speed to get a good trip.

7. Sidney's Candy - No doubt his Santa Anita Derby was impressive and he must be respected because of that. But the horse has been on the lead in both two-turn races and each time was able to dictate a slow pace. What will he do when he faces other speed and has to run faster early on? Can he rate? Will he improve on dirt? All legitimate questions.

8. Rule - Still skeptical, but suddenly he looks like the most intriguing of all the speed horses.

9. Dublin - Still hasn't shown the ability to win, but he is always right there at the end and is battle tested. I hear his trainer has won the Derby a few times. 

10. Endorsement - Who knows what kind of horse he is? Has some major negatives going against him, but of all the Johnny-come-lately 3-year-olds we've seen over the past month, he is the most intriguing to me.

Best of the Rest

Line of David - Very impressive that he set those blazing factions and still hung on gamely. I'm betting he won't be able to repeat the performance, especially for an extra quarter-mile.

Stately Victor - I'm not biting. Look at his last two starts on dirt.

Ice Box - Eskendereya beat him by 12 with no real excuses. Now he enters off six weeks. If you like a closer, I guess he can be considered.

Conveyance - Sunland Derby effort wasn't that bad. He is more intriguing to me than some of the other speedsters. Trainer plays a big part in that.

Mission Impazible - Had the perfect trip in a suspect Louisiana Derby field. Conveyance and Dublin beat him soundly two back.

American Lion - They were crawling in the Illinois Derby.

Dean's Kitten - Has a lot going against him. His one failed start on dirt is just the beginning.

Discreetly Mine - His one stakes win was against a very suspect group.

Interactif - I really hope Pletcher gives him a shot. What does he have to lose?

358 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Tim G

Interactif? All Todd has to lose is people grousing because he's loading the gate with horses that can't win (not my opinion but you know who).

I think Dublin has it in him, maybe a Belmont horse?

Get him to stop hanging and going 3-7 wide and he has a shot. He's moving forward and Wayne said himself that he'd like to win the AD but that wasn't the main goal.

I'm still Hopeful. LOL.

13 Apr 2010 1:53 PM
LAZMANNICK

I hear that Draynay's now on the LAL and Endordesment bandwagon.  My question is.....What did they ever do to deserve this?

The one thing about it though, they're both good enough that they could win in spite of him.

My top four:

1)LAL

2 or 3)Endorsement

2 or 3)Eskendereya

4)Sidney's Candy

13 Apr 2010 1:54 PM
Ranagulzion

Consider this top ten list:  1)Eskendereya  2)Super Saver  3)Mission Impazible  4)Rule  5)Ice Box  6)Endorsement  7)Awesome Act  8)Sidney's Candy  9)Looking At Lucky  10)Dublin

If Interactif goes he 'll be #5 on my list.

13 Apr 2010 1:59 PM
JOE

I HAD SEEN DUBLIN RUN ON THE LAST DAY OF SARATOGA AND I SAY THAT HORSE CAME OUT OF THE CLOUDS.  I CAN NOT EXPLAIN THE LACK OF GETTING THE JOB DONE. MISSION IMPAZIBLE WILL BE YOUR 2010 K.DERBY WINNER BY 10 LENGTHS AFTER HE RAJIV PUSHES THE BUTTON.  I AM AMAZED THAT SO MANY PEOPLE CAN NOT SEE THAT AS OF APRIL 13 2010.   JOE

13 Apr 2010 2:33 PM
JOE

MISSION IMPAZIBLE WILL BE HEADLINES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY COME SUNDAY MORNING AFTER THE K.DERBY AND THE NEXT THING ON RAJIVS MIND WILL BE TODD AM I FLYING WITH YOU TO THE PREAKNESS STAKES OR MISSION IMPAZIBLE FOR THE SECONG LEG.   JOE

13 Apr 2010 2:40 PM
Freetex

How important are post positions in the Derby?  For Big Brown, it didn''t matter, but that is not necessarily the norm, right?  Is it that running styles and post positions increase or decrease a horse's chances of winning?

Also, what about jockeys?  Do you focus on more experienced jockeys with Churchill, or just overall?  Or not at all?

13 Apr 2010 2:40 PM
draynay

There seems to be a big Esky bandwagon and I am one who just doesn't see it.  I am more impressed with Endorsement then I am with Esky.

       Esky vs. Endorsement

Speed.... Esky has yet to show any real speed.  His last 2 races were very slow will he have anything left when he runs behind a 111.  Endorsement ran with a 111 last time out and had plenty at the end.  Seems this horse will like it longer and only improve.  ADVANTAGE .... Endorsement

EXPERIENCE.... Endorsement raced only once as a 2 year old and Esky ran in the Breeders Cup Juv. and got whipped but have the deeper resume... ADVANTGE... Esky

BREEDING... Esky has some good blood but her also has Storm Cat and that has not produced a winner Endorsement is bred as well or better then any horse in the Derby.

ADVANTAGE... Endorsement

Winner... Endorsement

As you can see Endorsement is a better choice in the Derby and should have no problem finishing ahead of Esky. The only question left is who else goes on the ticket?  The works should provide us with some answers but it should not be hard to throw out 12 horses pretty quickly.

13 Apr 2010 3:01 PM
Steve

I've just started handicapping the KD with my usual factors and Dublin is scoring better than expected.  He's in my top 3.  But one thing that really bothers me is he acts like he doesn't want to pass the horse in front of him at the end.  

And you should look at the charts again - Stately Victor has 3 starts on dirt.  His first race was turf moved to dirt.  It was his 2nd best race until the Blue Grass.  And he's done poorly on all surfaces, including at Keeneland.  So IMO he looks like a possible peaking at the right time, positive jockey switch horse.  I'm probably using him in exotics if A. Garcia rides him again.      

I was on the Eskendereya bandwagon last fall but then he threw in the towel in the Juvenile because he got knocked around.  I had my eye on him the whole race because he was my win bet.  It appeared to me that he did not like traffic so I'm not willing to give him the surface excuse.  

But I won't make my final decisions until the field is set and post positions drawn.

13 Apr 2010 3:15 PM
Lucy

Hey Jason!

I'm def on the Endorsement bandwagon..have been since the Sunland Derby, love that horse!  Any idea who his jock might be though?  If NP does run..will Alborado stick with him or do you think he'll pick Endorsment?  Or if i screwed up and RA wasn't his jockey...do you know who is? Haha, thanks!

13 Apr 2010 3:35 PM
Jason Shandler

Lucy: Robby was on him. I would assume he would keep the mount if Noble's Promise doesnt go, but it now looks like Noble's Promise is likley. Not sure who the new rider would be. Lots of unanswered questions...

13 Apr 2010 3:38 PM
-Keelerman

Hi Jason!

Great post, but I have a question. What did you see in Paddy O'Prado that made you put him fourth on your list?

I'm afraid that I just didn't see anything about him that made me think Kentucky Derby. I'm sure you have your reasons, and maybe I missed something. But I predict Dublin finishes in front of Paddy O'Prado in the Kentucky Derby.

LAZMANNICK;

I guess that you and I are part of the minority, part of the group who have not hopped on the Eskendereya bandwagon. I'm afraid it's a bit lonely.

We should climb on to the Wetzel and Nina Fever bandwagons now! If they somehow manage to stick around into next year's Triple Crown, we could claim to be their first fans!

-Keelerman

13 Apr 2010 3:42 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Dray jumping ship again sometimes dray as much posting as you do and not in a negative way you end up where you started. For example you and I both had dublin very early I def. think Dublin will hit the board May 1st heck why wouldnt he...he always does! Whats going to change may 1st nothing he will run his race and get third once again. If anyone wants to hit a trifecta are bet the house on a show bet then dublin is your man!

Like I said early there are only 4 horses that are explosive in my opinion.

1) SC

2) Endorsment

3) Awesome Act

4) Rule (another horse that bothers me and dont know what to think about him....anyone elses thoughts on rule???)))

13 Apr 2010 3:43 PM
papillon

"8. Rule - Still skeptical, but suddenly he looks like the most intriguing of all the speed horses."

What?! No, no, Rule sucks. He's a toss for sure. Don't waste your money =)

LOL

Freetex, Lazmanick thinks I'm an idiot but if you don't mind the two cents of an idiot, at the Derby, post position, jockey, and running style are all important considerations, but personally I think the most important things are the break and a horse's ability to cope with the stampede, the bumping, and the wall of sound.

These aren't easy to judge at this point as none of theses horses have had to cope with anything like what they will at the derby before, but some horses have shown they can overcome bumping and bad breaks, which are good signs, and some have completely folded due to them, which are bad signs, IMHO.

13 Apr 2010 3:50 PM
Jason Shandler

Lucy: Robby will ride Endorsement I was just told. Story coming...

13 Apr 2010 3:58 PM
Billy's Empire

Put Theriot on Noble's Promise, and Albarodo on Endorsement. At least Theriot knows the track...

Dublin will not go by horses. Very disappointing!

Super Saver and Rule with both improve from the last, third start of the year and all.

Awesome Act seems to be the wiseguy horse for me. I think he will suprise people in the Derby, and Julien knows that track well. He knew he did not have to win the last race, and I am sure he knew the horse lost a shoe, so he was just keeping him healthy. Watch out for him. He may be a tough act to follow. I would love him at 15-1 or higher.

Can not wait for them to start rolling into town...

13 Apr 2010 4:12 PM
derby fan

the winners in this order are looking at lucky, eskendereya, then rule.

13 Apr 2010 5:12 PM
dustywhipp

Mission Impazible will do the impossible...

13 Apr 2010 5:13 PM
tcc

Dray jumping ship again, I def. think Dublin will hit the board May 1st heck why wouldnt he...he always does! Whats going to change may 1st nothing he will run his race and get third once again. If anyone wants to hit a trifecta are bet the house on a show bet then dublin is your man!

It Aint Easy being good

Final picks right now no changes! You dont even need workouts since I am the messiah! 4 horse tribox'

Eskendra, American Lion, Endorsment, LAL! (To the bank we must go!)

It Aint Easy being good

13 Apr 2010 5:14 PM
Lucy

great thanks Jason!  Got my pick, how just hoping he stays fit and healthy.

13 Apr 2010 5:17 PM
Saratoga AJ

I may be wrong, but the only thing that will get Eskendereya beat on May 1st would be any racing troubles caused by a 20 horse field. The feeling here is Pletcher will have at least 5 or 6 starters and will set the race up accordingly with instructions to the jocks. (For instance, he can use Rule to push Sidney's Candy through the early fractions).

Eskendereya has excellent cruising speed and acceleration turning for

home. His Beyers in the Fountain of Youth and Wood (106, 109) are by far better than any other 3 yr old in the Derby picture right now. The most any other colt in the current Derby field has is 101. And lets not forget, he obtained those Beyers just galloping…has not seen the whip, or has been asked to run very hard. Merely hand ridden and geared down the last 1/16 by Johnny V. His margin of victory has been close to 10 lengths in each of those races. And looking like he could run all day…the Derby’s 10 furlongs will not be a problem.

But is he any value betting on? Probably not. And as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win in the 20 horse Derby.

Still in all, this could possibly  be a super colt. Pletcher has said he never had one like this before going into the big race. Is he that good? We'll know by after 6PM May 1st.

13 Apr 2010 5:22 PM
derbykd

Esky. endors. lal.sid. and whoever the king of the 1 1/4 mile, rides!  box and cash out. gl ch

13 Apr 2010 5:42 PM
sodapopkid

I still think if he isn't worn out by then, I still think ESKY has a great shot at the Derby, but not the TC.  I do not believe any of these will make all three legs of TC.

13 Apr 2010 5:45 PM
Carlos in Cali

These are the horses I'm working with as of now in no particular order:

Lookin at Lucky) Proven Class

Endorsement) Big Sunland Derby score,improving & showed he can stalk,pounce and draw-off into a solid pace.

Sydney's Candy) It's not easy going w2w routing on pro-ride no matter the splits.Shown he can rate(maiden win) and should be more effective on dirt with his quick acceleration.Major player.

Ice Box) I'm dismissing his merry-go-round loss to Esky in the FoY.Nobody closed against that slow pace but,he showed in the Fla.Derby that his patented late burst will be dangerous in a Ky.Derby-like pace scenario.Strike the Gold?..Zito?..

Awesome Act) I have a feeling he's way better than shown,especially if allowed to run.

Not For My Money:

Eskendereya) The people's choice.Long winded horse should be tougher in the Belmont with his steady clips,not the Derby where he'll find himself stuck in traffic chasing legitimate splits.

Noble's Promise) Nah! he's not healthy & has no right to get the 10f.

Dublin) Too many excuses for my taste,plus he hangs too much.

Super Saver) If he couldn't get it done in the Ark.Derby,he won't get it done in Ky.

Rule) Merely a solid pace presence for a mile.

Discreetly Mine) Will get cooked by the pace.

Mission Imp.) Needs the perfect trip,good luck w/that.

Interactif) I've always thought he was a turf horse,that's why Pletcher hasn't run him back on dirt since his maiden score.They know better,back to the turf & let another horse w/a shot get in.

Paddy O' Prado) Not on dirt

Stately Victor) Ditto

Line of David) Looks like the speed-of-the-speed.If no one goes with him....?

Caracortado) He's intriguing,especially w/a solid pace in front of him.Proved he likes dirt.Possible underneath play for me.

American Lion) Seems a cut below the best.

The rest I didn't mention on purpose.

13 Apr 2010 5:45 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I agree with you regarding your comments on Todd. I also feel if he were an NFL coach he would've been fired long ago. I like NP(if he runs in the Derby) and SC. We will never agree on Zenyatta,but the Todd issue we do.

13 Apr 2010 5:48 PM
Slew

Wasn't there a blog a few months ago about great names for a Ky Derby winner.  With his birthday on May 1st, the stars will align for an aptly named winner, Stately Victor.  It's just too perfect to ignore. What a hunch play! Out of the money in his last 5 races, he certainly stepped up in the Blue Grass....and he'll probably get an "Endorsement" from the horse that places, who may be just as good.  I've been waiting for a "wow" colt...and I finally found him. (keep the fingers crossed..

...keep the fingers crossed).

And Jason, I'm really sorry about Odysseus...know he was one of your favorites....he's got heart, and I'm sure he'll be back soon.

13 Apr 2010 6:16 PM
LAZMANNICK

-Keelerman

Hey.....Great minds think alike.  LOL

13 Apr 2010 6:55 PM
Ted from LA

Dray,

How much will it cost me to get you off my horse?  You're the kiss of death when it comes to picking winners.  I like your posts and respect the fact that you have a huge following of people who hate your guts, but I really hope you rethink your endorsement of Endorsement.  Please.  I'm begging you.  Did you see Awesome Act?  He looks awesome.  LAL and Eskendereya will not hit the board.

13 Apr 2010 6:55 PM
Freetex

papillon, thank you for the info regarding the Derby and the huge field of runners.  It does make sense regarding the noise level and the bumping, etc.. probably very scary for the three year olds too.

13 Apr 2010 7:01 PM
LAZMANNICK

papillon

The only one on here that I've heard call you an idiot.....is you.  I always thought you were highy intelligent and extremely knowledgeable and a wizzard when it comes to TIME ANALOGY.

With regards to a horse that has suffered through both tough and troubled trips look no further than Looking At Lucky.  Look at his SA Derby and his Rebel and his BC Juvenile.  He has probably had more trouble against pretty tough opposition than any other of the top 20 Derby hopefulls. LOL

13 Apr 2010 7:04 PM
joe d.

everyone is looking for the big longshot again!! i am a longshot better,but eskendereya is an obvious monster to me,unless he falls down their is no one close. take 4-1 !!!!

13 Apr 2010 7:31 PM
snow

Joe d.,

You'll never get 4/1 on Eskendereya on Derby day.  You'll get 9/5 if you're willing to take it.

13 Apr 2010 7:44 PM
Ted from LA

joe d.

That description sounds just like Kentucky Derby winners Bellamy Road, Point Given and Afleet Alex.  He's a lock, right?

13 Apr 2010 7:55 PM
draynay

Esky looks good running against poor competition but how will he look vs. the best ?  Esky is a sucker bet.  Don't buy into it.

13 Apr 2010 8:16 PM
marktoothaker

Leaning towards a Wood Exacta at this point with Esky getting the roses and Awesome Act finishing out the exacta. Looking forward to seeing them on the track at CD, Esky and Todd squade is coming April 20th from Florida.

13 Apr 2010 8:23 PM
Auburnbill

Jason,

Great Top 10! What is your early projection for a Blind Luck -Esky Oaks-Derby Double?

13 Apr 2010 8:27 PM
2:24

I think Draynay makes some very good points in his post.  I like Endorsement quite a bit.  I also like Eskendereya though.  I like Sidney's Candy a bit more than some.

I won't have an official order until Derby week but I like the three horses previously mentioned, Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act and Ice Box.

I also really want to like Dublin but he hasn't won a race since the fall.

13 Apr 2010 8:38 PM
It aint easy being good

tcc haha I forgot to put dublin in my trifeca box! He is a horse on the cusp of third or 4th place. Tcc he is the horse that I first picked a wise man once told me (Mike R) has said you must sleep in the bed that you make!

13 Apr 2010 8:43 PM
Paula Higgins

I sound like a broken record but I still like:

Eskendereya

LAL

Sidney's Candy

13 Apr 2010 8:44 PM
2:24

I also give Super Saver a chance.

13 Apr 2010 8:44 PM
snow

Draynay,

What Kentucky Derby contender has faced better competition than Eskendereya?

13 Apr 2010 8:48 PM
Matthew W

In defense of Todd Pletcher, I can remember a time when twenty horses was the exception--not the rule! Heck, I think 1976 there were seven entered in the Kentucky Derby! SEVEN! (or eight)...Twenty horses means the best horse doesn't always win--anybody think Mine That Bird was the best horse in last year's field? Anybody think Afleet Alex was not the best horse in his third place effort? No, Pletcher is fine--I'll try to beat him, that's for sure, but if I had a good horse I would not hesitate to use Pletcher! This year looks kinda weird! I mean, Caracortado, probably a top ten horse in this crop, won't draw in--it looks like two guys and all the rest--as far as American Lion's slow Illinois Derby, it was windy, and the field was very strung out--do not underestimate this horse! Draw a line through his earlier races, as he has been a head case at the gate--with schooling/and a little bit of luck.....I mean, here's a horse who was on everybody's list...then he's off everybody's list...then he gets a "second chance" in Illinois...and what better horse to beat a son of Giants Causeway--than a son of Tiznow, especially at Churchill Downs!

13 Apr 2010 9:09 PM
draynay

Snow you are kidding right ?  How about Lookin At Lucky, Dublin, and Noble's Promise for starters.  Snow, Eskendereya faced the best 2 year old horses last year and folded like a tent.  He is not your Derby winner.

13 Apr 2010 9:19 PM
KR

TOP 10

1- Awesome Act - Leparoux lets him go this time

2- Eskendereya - Clearly the one to beat

3- Stately Victor - Will be flying down the lane

4- Endorsement - Experience factor hurts but big on talent

5- Lookin at Lucky - A real fighter but the last eighth could be a problem

6- Ice Box - Will pass alot of tired horses in the stretch

7- Mission Impazible - Improving but probably a notch below top ones

8- Super Saver - Anticipated fast pace hurts chances

9- Sidney's Candy - A quality colt but too many question marks

10- Setsuko - If he gets in could be a factor in bottom of exotics

13 Apr 2010 9:28 PM
Matthew W

Baffert was doing the moonwalk at the clockers corner--he's high on his Lucky---Lookin At Lucky is the horse to beat---you'll get 5-1---compare that to 8-5 on Esky.....

13 Apr 2010 9:29 PM
It aint easy being good

Snow his name is sidney's candy! Also mission impazible beat some good horses!

13 Apr 2010 9:32 PM
LAZMANNICK

The last 1/8th will be a problem alright.....for a lot of those going in the Derby but not for LAL.

13 Apr 2010 9:48 PM
snow

Draynay,

Correct me if I'm wrong.  But, the horses that you mentioned all LOST!

It aint easy being good,

The Santa Anita Derby was a nice field with Lookin at Lucky.  But, I don't think that it compares to the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial fields.

13 Apr 2010 9:55 PM
RJPPDP

I enjoy making derby lists. And since his allowance win, Eskendreya has been incredible. Look, I know we want to knock this horse and finding him would be an incredible score.  I also feel the best wins in the derby as well. Since 2004, Smarty Jones,Barbaro, Street Sense,and Big Brown have won and I think they were the class of theie fields. Mine that bird and Giacomo came from nowhere and won and did not win again in theor 3 year old campaign.

My Top 10 are

1.Eskendereya

2. Lookin at Lucky

3. Sidney's Candy

4. Awesome Act

5 Endorsement

6. Super Saver

7. Ice Box

8. Mission Impazible

9 Rule

10. Dublin

Things can change from today. I ten changed today. Overall I think everyone has great comments including Draynay.

Look Eskendereya

13 Apr 2010 9:58 PM
Ted from LA

That's good news about Baffert doing the moonwalk at Clocker's Corner.  His horses will be doing the same thing down the stretch on Derby Day.

13 Apr 2010 10:03 PM
odelay

Anyone know where Endorsement has been since winning Sunland?  Is he based at Fairgrounds?

13 Apr 2010 11:26 PM
papillon

Saratoga AJ said "The feeling here is Pletcher will have at least 5 or 6 starters and will set the race up accordingly with instructions to the jocks. (For instance, he can use Rule to push Sidney's Candy through the early fractions)."

I agree that Rule will likely be pushing the pace, and that he and Sid will likely be dueling at the front (in fact I'm betting on it).

But I don't think Winstar will allow Pletcher to use one of their best horses (Rule) as a rabbit for another stable's horse (Eskendereya)--considering that Winstar is likley to have numerous horses for Pletcher in years to come,  I just don't see Pletecher jeopardizing that relationship by sacrificing a Winstar horse for Eskendereya; however, I wouldn't be surprised if all of the Winstars will be raced strategically (as much as possible at least) to ensure the  best overall result for Winstar Farms in the Derby.

If Rule runs his race, Eskenderya is more likely to be cooked before Sid is IMHO. My fear isn't that Rule sets a hot early pace, my fear is he will be strangled and held back.

It Ain't Easy Being Good said "4) Rule (another horse that bothers me and don't know what to think about him....anyone else's thoughts on rule???)"

Rule is solid, consistent, mature, and fast. Unless something awful happens, he will be out of the gate like a bullet and straight into first or second place, and out of trouble, before he hits the first turn. The closer to the rail he starts the better.

Of his seven lifetime starts, the last five have all been at two turns (he has won at a mile and a mile 1/16). He has never finished worse than 3rd.

Super Saver raced faster Rule once last year (Line of David's Arkansas Derby fractions were actually very similar to Rule's Florida Derby fractions). American Lion has consistently trained faster than Rule, but Rule has consistently raced faster than American Lion (even on dirt). All of Rule's early fractions in his races have been some of the most demanding that any of this crop have faced. AFAIK he is th eonly one of this crop to have won on an off track.

Based on Beyers, Moss Speed Figures, Ragozin figures, and raw fraction times, Rule will be one of the most consistently fast horses in the Derby, if not the fastest. He doesn't have much of an accelerating kick--he races a lot like Rachel Alexandra TBH by hitting a high cruising speed and staying there.

He doesn't like to have horses in front of him, but he doesn't mind company in the front with him (in fact I think it helps him to have someone right there with him). His last four or five Beyers have all been 97 or higher (even his third place in the Florida Derby was a 98).

The biggest question mark is whether he can maintain enough speed to hang on for a mile and 1/4--his Florida Derby is result enigmatic: On the one hand he slowed in the stretch, on the other he didn't back up (unlike Pulsion, who dueled with Rule to the stretch and faded to 10th or so). Also, it is arguable he actually ran at a top speed for longer than he appears to have done: He went into the first turn seven wide and was still about three wide coming out of the first turn, and he never less than two wide, even in the second turn.

He has two derby winners in his immediate family (his maternal uncle Funnycide and his paternal grandfather Fusiachi Pegasus). His dad, Roman Ruler, was very good at 9 furlongs. The other question mark is the 6 week lay off, but Hard Spun had a six week lay off and still finished 2nd, and Rule raced pretty much once a month from July 2009 to December 2009.

All that being said, Rule sucks, don't bet on him! (please don't bet on him!) ;-)

Lazzmanick--awe shucks =)

I like Lucky a lot, he's a tough resilient horse, and I think he will be in the top four for sure. I'm just not sure that he is fast enough to win.

Despite the distance, the Kentucky Derby is usually won by whoever is in the lead by the stretch call (despite the length of the Churchill Downs stretch, only 2 horses in the past 30 years have ever made up more than a length in the Derby stretch--Giacomo and Grindstone each made up about 3 lengths; even little Mine that Bird was leading by the 1/8 pole last year. One theory for this is that the wall of sound that erupts when the horses turn for home freaks them out and causes something akin to stage fright. Maybe the key is to pick a deaf horse? LOL)

13 Apr 2010 11:30 PM
mz

Hey Ted from LA: while I respect your attempts to redirect Draynay away from Endorsement, STOP reminding him about Awesome Act!  It's not nice to move the fickle finger of Dray off your horse by pointing him at another one THAT I LIKE!

Although the way they seem to be running this year, maybe I should just wait until the first Sat. in May and pick anything that's over 40 to 1.  

Come to think about it, that would also have worked last year.

13 Apr 2010 11:43 PM
Smooth Jazz

I have a major concern as it regards Lookin at Lucky being able to handle the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.  Below is why I have a major concern.

Lookin at Lucky is by Smart Strike out of Private Feeling.  Private Feeling is by Belong to Me.  Last Year's Arkansas Derby winner, Papa Clem, is by Smart Strike out of Miss Houdini.  Miss Houdini is by Belong to Me.  Therefore, both Lookin at Lucky and Papa Clem have not only the same Sire (Smart Strike), but they both have the same Broodmare Sire (Belong to Me).  Belong to Me is widely regarded as not being a Stamina Influence.

Papa Clem's victory in the Arkansas Derby was at 1 1/8 Mile, but Papa Clem finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby.  If you watch the video of last Year's Kentucky Derby, it basically looks like that Papa Clem "hit a brick wall" and really struggled during the last part of the Kentucky Derby.  Papa Clem's struggle with the last part of the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 Mile Distance has to be attributed to having Belong to Me as the Broodmare Sire on the bottom part of Papa Clem's Pedigree.

I feel that Lookin at Lucky is going to have the same problem during the last part of the Kentucky Derby that Papa Clem had.  Another aspect that is not going to help Lookin at Lucky in regards to the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby is the fact that Lookin at Lucky's 2nd Dam, Regal Feeling, is by Clever Trick.  Clever Trick, just like Belong to Me, is widely regarded as not being a Stamina Influence.  

The bottom part of Lookin at Lucky's Pedigree is severely lacking in regards to Stamina Influence.  That is not good when it comes to a 1 1/4 Mile Distance.

In regards to Eskendereya, Eskendereya's Fractions in the Wood Memorial were very mediocre.  In my opinion, Eskendereya simply doesn't have enough speed to overcome obstacles like a bad starting Gate Position, or Traffic.  Eskendereya may or may not have a good starting Gate Position, but he will most likely face traffic troubles in the Kentucky Derby.  Eskendereya's lack of speed is going to cause a significant problem for him when he encounters traffic troubles in the Kentucky Derby.      

13 Apr 2010 11:49 PM
Ted from LA

odelay,

There is an article on this site saying he's at Keeneland and heading to Churchill on the 18th I think.  I hope he loves the track, gains 110 pounds and destroys all comers.  I haven't decided who I like in the Derby yet though.  Dray, I will give you my first born chicken this spring if you get off Endorsement... and a dozen fresh brown eggs a week until Breeders' Cup.

13 Apr 2010 11:57 PM
Ted from LA

mz,

Excellent work.  I apologize.  But I am amazed at Awesome Act.  I might change my own bet just to join you.  I hope Dray doesn't join us in this adventure (or understand reverse psychology).  I think he could lap the field.

14 Apr 2010 12:04 AM
wendyg

Does everyone remember Mine That Bird?  The reason I ask is because I am sure that as hard as this year has been to choose a horse from, there is a MTB in the group, and if Borel is on him, I hope they keep the inside blocked or we may get another upset.  MTB in my opinion is not that great.  It's just that Borel is very good at what he does, and MTB got lucky that day.  

14 Apr 2010 12:05 AM
LAZMANNICK

papillon

Maybe another theory could be that after running what was probably the toughest mile they have ever run up to this point, they are then faced with the daunting task of running another 1/4M. LOL another great post on your part, seriously.

14 Apr 2010 12:18 AM
brettzky99

Pappilon is correct in his analysis of the TPletch entries.  No way in hell will Rule be used specifically to fry Sidney's Candy-or other speed and set up Eskendereya.  However, it is feasable if not likely that they will go 46 flat if not quicker (remember Keyed Entry?), which may put away Rule, Eskendereya, and Sidney's Candy.  Eskendereya will be a complete wild card at those fractions, as will Sidney's Candy, total unknowns.  I have always respected Rule, but it must be pointed out that he and Ice Box both nearly stopped after the Florida Derby, while Pleasant Prince and Lentenor galloped out well past them.  That being said, I still think he is underrated, and share the concern that he wil be taken in early, based on the TPletch and JV comments after Gulfstream.  I don't ever remember so much speed going to CD on May's first Saturday, but crazy things happen.  When for sure they should be going 46 flat they go a sensible 47 and 2, which would change the complexion 180 degrees.  If the speed does step up (Conveyance, Sid Candy, Line of David, Rule, Amer Lion, and/or Super Saver) , one has to consider a deeper closer.  Ice Box looked fried to me after the FD, maybe Awesome Act with a nice trip???  Stately Victor or Mission Impazible, probably both will 15-1 or higher??  For some reason Eskendereya reminds me of Dunkirk, gonna get caught mid pack, and boxed, could finish middle of the field--just not sold. If Setsuko gets in, he must be considered, and must also agree that the most regally bred horse in the field would be Endorsement--although I thought there are posts which sight an AP Indy broodmare sire jinx, as prevalent as the Storm Cat sire line's.  Can't wait for it to shake out.

14 Apr 2010 3:20 AM
JOE

RAJIV MARAGH SAID TO TODD PLETCHER AFTER THE L.DERBY, TODD I HAD A LOT LEFT IN THE TANK AND THAT MEANS TODD I HAD A TON OF HORSE LEFT BUT THE RACE WAS OVER.  NOW COME K.DERBY DAY RAJIV IS GOING TO PUT THE PEDAL TO THE METAL RIGHT AROUND THE ONE MILE AND SIXTEENTH POLE AND ALL RAJIV IS GOING TO SEE IS JOCKEYS AND HORSES GETTING SMALLER IN HIS REAR VIEW MIRROR THAT WILL BE MOUNTED ON HIS HEAD. HE IS GOING TO BE THINKING ARE THEY ANTS OR FLEAS BEHIND ME. IF RAJIV MARAGH AND MISSION IMPAZIBLE DO NOT WIN THE K.DERBY BY 10 LENGTHS THEY WILL WIN IT BY 9.5 LENGTHS, YES I WENT OUT ON A LIMB WITH THE 9.5   JOE

14 Apr 2010 6:00 AM
JOE

BLOGGER I KNOW YOU HAD TO CHUCKLE A LITTLE AT THAT ONE BECAUSE THAT WAS FUNNY.  AFTER THE K.DERBY YOU CAN THANK ME FOR GIVING ME THE K.DERBY WINNER.     JOE

14 Apr 2010 6:05 AM
smartyjones1

endorsement!

robby albarado has committed..

the colt went from fair grounds,which is basically below sea level..to the high altitude of new mexico,,ran a fantastic,and overlooked prep,,won at will and chased a fast pace by a very good horse,and wasn't even blowing after the race,,ENDORSEMENT!

14 Apr 2010 6:19 AM
2:24

Sorry but I just don't understand those talking about Stately Victor as any sort of threat.  I would be amazed if he finished better than 15th in the Derby.  I would caution those who like him.  Keeneland's synthetic track has made many an average horse look like a world beater.

14 Apr 2010 7:05 AM
trebloc

As impressive as Sidney's Candy has looked over the last two races, I keep coming back to his first race of the year and what a god awful performance.  Then I see Line of David wire the field in the AD, where he set fast fractions and was able to hold on for the win.  When I googled John Sadlers name some interesting articles come up, so I am tossing them both from my Derby picks.  They will not be able to repeat their performances in the Derby.

14 Apr 2010 7:17 AM
Aikenite

My Top Ten FWIW:

1) Esky- Far and away the most accomplished.  Should be 9-5.

2) Endorsement- Monster improvement in Sunland race.

3) Stately Victor- May foal with regal dirt pedigree is simply getting better at the right time.  

4) Ice Box- Nice ped and running style.  Improving

5) Sidney's Candy- Don't like running style for 10F.

6) Awesome Act- Quick acceleration helps in Derby Field.

7) Rule- Tough speed horse could hang on for part.

8) Mission Impazible- Improving.  SW race not bad given awful post.

9) Dublin- The classic hanger.  Very overrated.

10) Super Saver- See Dublin.  

14 Apr 2010 7:28 AM
Joeywoge

For all of you that feel Sidney's Candy will be battling on the lead, FORGET IT!! He's not fast enough. He will be in the 2nd tier of horses chasing the leaders.

               As someone said earlier there will be many stategies going on in this Derby. Win Star has 5 horses going. One of them will certainly be setting a solid pace. Most likely Rule!! Baffert is not stupid. He knows he has to have Conveyance pressuring the horses on the front end so he can set it up for L.A.L. And it looks like Jackson Bend will get in the Derby and Lapenta and Zito will have him on the front end as well because Ice Box is there best chance of winning the Derby! To me on paper this race looks like there will be way to many horses on the front end. Sunland Park carried the first two horses around the track that day. 2 throwout's. Same can be said for the La.Derby horses. All throwout's. To me even the Ark Derby track was favoring speed. Nobody closed that day and L.O.D. set a fast pace BUT he was all alone on the lead.

                I'm looking for a closer, and to me a horse sitting on a monster race is Awesome Act. We all know without a pace ESKY will beat Awesome Act every time. Unfortunately for Pletcher there will be plenty of pace in the Derby this year and Awesome Act will be flying late. Good luck to all.

14 Apr 2010 9:08 AM
Rachel

I guess you could call it "dictate a slow pace" if no one's running faster than you...the entire race...♥

14 Apr 2010 10:35 AM
MikeM

MTB is a very game horse that got a great ride in the Derby and got the job done. I view Dublin to be the same type of horse. DWL, the extra 1/4 and a good trip will get the job done.

14 Apr 2010 10:36 AM
Rachel

...at 7, 8.5 and 9F....♥♥

14 Apr 2010 10:37 AM
Rachel

Saratoga AJ, If as an owner I got a horse to the Derby, and my trainer used my horse, and probably only shot ever, to set up another owner's horse to win, when my horse had the graded stakes earnings to deserve a chance....##%#!!!!!

14 Apr 2010 10:40 AM
Bill Daly

The Derby race flow will determine who will be the likliest horses to finish 1-2-3. One thing is apparent: too much speed in this Derby.  I'm looking for a horse with a pedigree full of stamina who likes to come from out of it.  Where is Giacomo when I need him??

14 Apr 2010 11:09 AM
keenelandcat

As much as I like LAL, he does manage to get himself in all kinds of trouble. In the SAD, it was his undoing.  Can't see it getting any easier in a 20 horse field. From the second the gate opens, there will be some speed horses up front & a couple have proved they have staying power. So, they won't  let Eskendereya have everything his own way. I think the Derby will be won by a horse closing from midpack. I don't think we will see a MTB or Street Sense this year.

14 Apr 2010 11:28 AM
GHOSTDANCER EQUINE

I LIKE ICEBOX. ZENYATTA CAN SURE CLOSE WELL, SO, I AM VOTING FOR THIS UNDER DOG. i THINK HE CAN DO IT.

14 Apr 2010 11:50 AM
TJLuvsTizs

I am finding it difficult to go out on a limb yet without seeing the full picture.  We still have a week and a half left of defections to wait out, and then there is the all important draw.  

Esky is a great horse but will not provide any value in the derby, thus I will not bet him to win (but I think he is good enough to win).

As I stated earlier I will not bet on the horses that entered off of Keeneland or Turfway Park preps, I don't think their form translates as well as the Santa Anita form has last year and this year.

I may take a stand on pedigree, but it will depend highly on the draws they get.  

I also may choose my horses based on the class that they have been running in.  Endorsement raised many eyebrows last time out, but do not forget, this was his first start outside of maiden company, (he did handle it nicely) and will be up against it in the derby.

Noble's Promise is a toss for many reasons, and I have already let my feelings be known why in prior posts.  

If history tells us anything it is that anyone can win on any given Saturday.  20 horses beating up on each other right out of the gate even took Curlin to task as he was hit with the tidal wave of horses from his outside.  15 of the last 20 winners have had odds of 20-1 or lower.  15 of the last 20 Placers have had odds of lower than 20-1.  I will likely be betting on the horses ranked 3-9 for the win on my pick 3, and would put them over the top 3 in my exacta as the top three betting favorites have finished second 9 out of the last 20 races.

14 Apr 2010 11:55 AM
WinnahPickah

I've read most of the comments and I'll say this. Please keep talking yourselves off Eskendreya, Please! I'll take 8/5 on May 1st and not be greedy. Y'all are looking for a price when there isn't going to be one. If you've liked him before the Derby this is your chance to get the best price.

Sidney's Candy does intrigues me but he's never run on dirt. I thought his finish time was fast for the Santa Anita Derby.

If the track comes up Sloppy on May 1st who has the advantage? I'm assuming the horses who've prepped on Synthetic will be compromised.

Any thoughts?

14 Apr 2010 12:19 PM
EddieCofLV

Barring injury, ESKENDEREYA will not

only win the KENTUCKY DERBY but also

The PREAKNESS and The BELMONT S.

He is the next TRIPLE CROWN winner.

By Giants Causeway - Aldebaran Light,

by Seattle Slew - Altair, by Alydar -

Stellar Odyssey, by Northern Dancer -

Queen Sucree, by Ribot. Belongs to

female family 2-d, one of the top

15 most classic producing family.

And correct me if i am wrong, he also is an X_Factor horse having

inherited (?) the large heart gene

from his double-copy (?) dam, Aldebaran.

Inbred 4S x 4d to Northern Dancer,

5S x 5D to Bold Ruler, and 5s x 5D

to Hail Reason. I also like the presence of Round Table (5D) in his pedigree.

If there is a future wager on triple crown winner, i, sure would

like to place a small wager on him.

14 Apr 2010 12:33 PM
street sense

i was on super saver's band wagon now i feel he can not get the distance even do he loves the track at churchill downs. i now beleive that dublin has what it takes to give D W LUKAS HIS FIFTH derby win.  

14 Apr 2010 1:04 PM
El Kabong

Wendyg, Calvin will be riding Super Saver.

Everyone else- keep the sense of  humility and humor going. Some great posts. I have had more fun, agree or not,  in reading these posts than any other week.

My pencil is still in the tool shed getting sharpened for my picks. I have my suspects and no one would be surprised by any of them. So far though, I have to agree with the points made, for and against Esky. He has not faced stiff competition and his failure in the BC large field is a very good point. But, he has matured and his effortless wins do look downright awesome, yet he is no big brown. Facing a pace monster like Sidney will be a whole new test for him. Like esky, sidney runs in control and likes to explode at the top of the stretch. At this point, despite the assumed pace, I still like the position Sidney will be in at the turn. Sidney may not be able to control the pace, but Esky won't be able to saunter and then assume an easy path down the lane. If someone gets in Lucky's path, they'll get bit or whipped by whichever of the two most frustrated entities on this year's trail  has the best reach.  Best to stay away from both horse and jock. Super Saver, my original pick, wasn't fit enough to win at 9F last week(he staggered like a drunk bum to the line). Has a short 3 weeks to get ready and will need, I believe, a big break to get it done*(*calvin is a big break jockey). Super Saver is possible but I'll need to see some really good works between now and then to convince me he is fit enough to win at 10F.  

As far as a win goes from any of the others, Steve will have to point out something extraordinary from the backside before I am convinced the winner will not come from the four I just mentioned.  

Good luck everyone. All eyes are on Louisville now that Augusta is done.

14 Apr 2010 1:11 PM
Gladiator

Jason

Forget about Awesom Act, what? he lost a shoe, i remember when Big Brown in the Belmont was running around with a shoe dangling all over and nobody was using that as an excuse. Move up Sidney's Candy and Endorsement and throw out Awesom Act and Super Saver.

14 Apr 2010 1:19 PM
It Aint Easy being good

papillon great post and thanks for the insight so I am figuring that you think that Rule can hold on for a piece and will run a similar race as hard spun? I would say the same but conveyance is lights out for the first mile and could easily wear out Rule. Your right though if the horse is fresh and consistently running in the high 90's he is probably good enough to hit the board. Eight belles ran at high 90's consistently and was able to get 2nd two years ago.

14 Apr 2010 2:10 PM
kelly

Todd Pletchers derby......I think Mission Impazible pulls yet another upset. There are upsets in almost every prep + last years derby.Perfectly spaced races, improving every start....WATCHOUT.......Go MI!!!!

14 Apr 2010 2:20 PM
Cameron

Looking at Lucky on top and bottom of Mission Impazible, Sydney's Candy.

14 Apr 2010 2:23 PM
mz

Ted from LA: "lap the field" as in "run backwards"?  as in "pick-the-flavour-of-the-week every week"?

BTW, sorry!  really sorry! but I REALLY like Awesome Act.  Can we pick another horsie for the reverse psychology? Dublin?  Rule?

Or any way we can have MTB run again this year?

14 Apr 2010 2:43 PM
Billy's Empire

I wonder who the last place horse will be this year. I love the Derby Losers Cups. 2008 WAS MONBA(PLETCHER)

2007 Cowtown Cat (Pletcher)

2006 Keyed Entry (Pletcher

2005 High Limit (Frankel)

So pletcher is sandwiched between Frankel with High Limit, and Lukas, with flying private in 2009.

His luck has to turn around sometime. His dad gives him great young horses year after year to win the derby with....

14 Apr 2010 3:58 PM
trebloc

My bad, the race I am thinking about with Sidney's Candy was in late Dec "09".

14 Apr 2010 4:18 PM
It Aint Easy being good

haha billy i have your last place finisher his name is HOMEBOYKRIS that horse doesnt belong and there is no way he will get 19th! lol!

Why doesnt anyone like american lion anymore he is an older horse just figuring out his game his time was slow but he was enhaling wind gust like he had asthma! He has stamina and is a sneaky play may 1st I will throw 20 his way anyone with me??

14 Apr 2010 4:32 PM
Joanie

It's beginning to look more and more that Pletcher will be under enormous pressure to finally win the Derby. He's going in with the best 3 yr old he's ever had at this point (by his own admission), one who looks head and shoulders above the rest on paper. Plus a herd of 4 or 5 more, all looking as good or close to it as any of the others in the race. He's reading it, hearing it. "If he don't win it this year, he may never win it ".

I personally would like to see him win it, and that Eskenderea can go on to become one of the greats. If for no other reason, nothing stirs up more exposure to the masses than a Triple Crown winner. Racing needs it. Badly.

14 Apr 2010 5:02 PM
wilson

Does Eskendereya have more tactical speed that Friesan Fire did last year?  If not watch out for him to suffer a similar trip where he is just not fast enough to get good position early and all hope is lost.  Or he will have to be used early like Barbaro and be almost that good to maintain contact with the leaders and have a clear, clean trip and still have plenty left to run to the wire.  

Sidney's Candy may not be fast enough to get the lead, but he is definitely fast enough to ensure a good trip near the front and relatively in the clear.  Between Eskendereya and Sidney's Candy I think you should believe your eyes and the clock and disregard the speed figures.  

Finally, look at the replay of the BC Juvenile featuring Lookin at Lucky and Eskendereya.  Both had bad trips in a big field and only one of them folded like a tent.

14 Apr 2010 5:20 PM
JP

I dont think Sidney's Candy is getting the credit he deserves.  Lookin at Lucky's was not cathcing him that day even with a clean trip.  The other speed in the Derby can not keep up with his cruising speed.  His dad was a monster who could run all day.  I hope I get 8-1 or better on Derby Day.  His pro ride arguments should be the same as Lookin at Lucky's.  LAL's dirt race was not as good as it looks.  He beat alot of horses that do not know how to win and like to hang.  Thoughts?

14 Apr 2010 5:32 PM
Ed

The one horse that may or may not be suited to the 1 1/4 M of the KY Derby, surely is one of the fastest 3YO's in the country - Eightyfiveinafifty.  He proved himself in the Bay Shore, and maybe better suited to run in the Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard or the King's Bishop, and well might point to the Preakness at the slighter shorter distance 1 3/16ths, but he sure can be a force on the front end or stalking the pace.  

To me he might more aptly be named "FIFTYEIGHTINAFIVER" for his love to run 5F in 58 Flat....but he's sure the most impressive colt pushing his Beyer ratings to the max.

If he can win the Derby Trial, and enters the KY Derby, look out on the front end....there will be plenty of speed and pace for along with Rule, Super Saver, Sidney's Candy, Discreetly Mine and Line of David; closers like Ice Box, Stately Victor, Lookin At Lucky and Eskendereya, Dublin and Awesome Act will have plenty to run at.

14 Apr 2010 5:45 PM
Tim G

I'm not saying this to be a contrarian. Not saying it to be mean. But, with all the undercurrents swirling around the connections of Eskendereya I'm not sure this would be the horse embraced by the world as the savior of racing as a TC winner. Not sure any horse could do that really. Truthfully there have been questions surrounding a couple of the last few Derbies. Curlin's original and part owner connections

the connections of Big Brown. I remember the days when the biggest questions were, why is Lukas running so many (he shut that up by winning it) and what will a horse do with a bar shoe.

We in racing want a TC winner, we may be deluding ourselves into thinking it will matter. But what really WILL matter is how the public accepts or looks at whoever does win the race.

14 Apr 2010 5:47 PM
El Kabong

Wilson,

Friesan's trip wasn't compromised by a lack of speed but rather a four horse lean initiated by join the dance  in post 9. The weight of which landed on Friesan's right front hoof, tearing it and more than likely causing his hairline fracture and bone chip that was later diagnosed after he ran a similarly disappointing race at Pimlico. However, I couldn't have said it better when comes to  pre-race analysis of why Sydney may be in a better position at the turn for home to separate from the crowd. His tactical speed will serve him well as long as he can relax. I believe he can and with more horses backing up at the turn and more horses trying to be situated in the second tear than we have seen in a while, Esky could get buried.

14 Apr 2010 5:48 PM
tcc

Jason:

I also posted this on Steve's blog.

Eightyfiveinafifty, if he wins the Derby trial, he would have enough earning's to be 21st on the list, with any defection's he would make the field, if they decided to run him. He would be another horse adding to the pace factor, he just had a 5F workout in a 58.09 at New York.

14 Apr 2010 6:03 PM
Kevin

Lookin At Lucky/Dublin

They have the breeding, the stamina to win the Derby. Most important they have that positive vibe, the good karma, and the aura of success surrounding both of them. I am finding it very hard to separate these two horses, so-

If the odds justify I will be win betting both and reversing the exacta.

As for Trips-Supers, I'll run them one-two/one-three, going probably four/five deep with the add on horses. Don't know which ones yet but will have to include at least a couple of Pletchers in the bottom levels. It is also the karma that he runs close, but out of the win money.

Part of the karma is:

1-Lukas the teacher has one more lesson for the pupil to learn.

2-Lookin At Lucky finally will live up to his name.

Best to all in their picks/bets, and keep giving/writing your picks

I need help with the underside of the exotics. Thank you.

14 Apr 2010 6:23 PM
Zenn

Jason,

You don't mention Setsuko anywhere around here... what are your thoughts on him? Does he have potential to make a big move if he does make it in?

14 Apr 2010 6:25 PM
TJLuvsTizs

It Ain't Easy...

I guess it goes without saying about backing you up.

14 Apr 2010 7:32 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

Can you please tell me which farm Dancing in My Dreams is at? I can't find any info regarding her.

14 Apr 2010 7:36 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Will Super Saver and Rule be a coupled entry?  

If so, I will definitely be putting some money on them.  With more than 1/3 of the field being front runners (and the bulk of them being winners of the best 3YO preps), I think the derby will come from one of the front runners.

However, I don't like Line of David or Conveyance wiring the field.

14 Apr 2010 7:38 PM
Jason Shandler

tcc: I read the DRF article, but I very much doubt they would send 85ina50 to the dance off the Derby Trial. If they do, they will take a lot of heat.

Zenn: I like Setsuko but he's not getting in with $180k

14 Apr 2010 7:40 PM
Freetex

Great Posts!  Thank you all.

My favorites (today) are Sidney's Candy, Eskendereya, Stately Victor, and Mission Impazible.

I do like Pappillon's comments on Rule.  He was not intimidated by Pulsion who pushed the pace hard until he weakened.  Rule just looked so in control, just like Eskendereya.

14 Apr 2010 7:50 PM
Joanie

wilson  

1) He didn't "fold like a tent". He closed to within 5 1/2 lengths in the stretch at the wire. And you are comparing Friesan Fire with this horse? Really?

2) It was his first time on the fake track. First time on the rubber. Last I looked, most of the horses accustomed to dirt ran very poorly at Santa Anita the last two BC Championships.

4)How many very good, Triple Crown race winners bombed in the previous year's BC Juvenile? Quite a few. Why? Because...

3) Horses make their biggest step forward (or backward) between the ages of 2 and 3. Eskendereya has been lights out as a 3 year old.  

4)As far as Sidney, I think he will be a player early. Maybe he can stay the distance. Certainly a user in the exotics. And that goes for Baffert's horse too. But if someone handed me a free $10,000 win bet (like they have been doing on the TV broadcasts of the Derby preps) I know who I'd bet on.

14 Apr 2010 7:51 PM
Saratoga AJ

85ina50 is a VERY fast horse. A bit of a head case, but a burner. The distance limitations are in his pedigree though.

But I really like this horse, and he will make a lot of noise this year if he stays sound. A win in the Derby Trial will send him to the Preakness I think. We'll see how long he will go then. One thing is for sure..he'll be on the lead early.

Look for a sprint championship player later this year.

14 Apr 2010 7:59 PM
Householder

Saratoga AJ.  85ina50.  Didn't he go over the rail one day?  A bit of a head case for sure.

14 Apr 2010 8:17 PM
johnny d

Boy are u people hitting the sauce? Endorsement is too short on seasoning, throw him out. Its the derby unless you are barbaro you need seasoning. Oh and super saver is your horse if you like a horse that has every chance to win in the lane and just goes up and down.

14 Apr 2010 8:42 PM
Pedigree Shelly

  Sentimentally I'd like to see Ice Box win the Derby ! I've followed his sire " Pulpit " since he won his maiden at Gulftream Park in 1997 ! I always thought even back then he would make a name for himself ! Darned if I wasnt right !!

14 Apr 2010 8:54 PM
TJLuvsTizs

I am in the midst of doing some more derby research and I came across something that struck me fairly oddly and reminded me of how Esky is coming into this with questions regarding his competition.

Smarty Jones faced only two other Derby starters before the derby, Pro Prado and Borrego.  Neither of them had won a graded stakes race by then.  He beat PP three straight times leading up to the derby and Pro Prado was third in those three races and subsequently finished 13th in the derby.  Borrego was 2nd in the Ark. Derby and 2nd in the LA Derby, and subsequently finished 10th in the Ky Derby.

Smarty was obviously on a much different level than Esky (being undefeated), however he was ready for the derby despite the level of competition he faced.  

I wasn't into horse racing at that time, but were the critics of Smarty asking why he was dodging the likes of Limehouse, Lion Heart, or The Cliff's Edge?  Did they question the fractions his preps were ran at being 1:11.6 (AD), 1:12 (Rebel), and 1:11.2 (SouthWest)?

I don't know those answers, but the betting public liked him enough to be the favorite and he ran his race and won.  I guess I learned a lesson not to judge a horse by who he beats, but by the fact that they get the job done.

14 Apr 2010 9:00 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        I'd love to see Dublin win , but if the Derby was run at 2 1/4 miles he'd still come in 3 rd !

14 Apr 2010 9:05 PM
Saratoga AJ

Householder:

85ina50 was on the lead early at something like 2/5 odds, then bolted to the outside rail, jumped the outer rail, a real mess in the Whirlaway Stakes in February. Luckily, he only ended up with a 6 inch gash on his leg.

www.youtube.com/watch

He came back to win the Bay Shore on Wood Memorial day after a few anxious moments early in that race at the Big A.

www.youtube.com/watch

This is a very fast horse...but a nut.  

14 Apr 2010 9:10 PM
Sammy from Neb

Looking at lucky with Mission Impazible great exacta pay off.

Like Mission's facebook page I am a fan. Go MI!!

14 Apr 2010 9:19 PM
Jason Shandler

Sammy from Neb: Facebook handicapping is a new, sure-fire way to pick Derby winners. Thanks for the insight.

14 Apr 2010 9:28 PM
Dutch

As John Sadler has mentioned numerous times, Sidney's Candy has been very comfortable on the front end his last few races. He's been very relaxed and isn't fighting with Joe Talamo to go even faster. Heck, Sadler even mentioned that the horse took a nap the day of the Santa Anita Derby. He's a cool, calm, relaxed customer, not a speed freak who needs the lead.

14 Apr 2010 9:37 PM
trackjack

WinnahPickah

EddieCofLV

Joanie:          Ditto!

Great comments.  Draynay may be trying to tout us off Eskendereya to make his price more attractive, then plunk down his real cash on the real winner.

Yes, anything can happen in this 20 horse cavalry charge and it has in the past, but we all have to put our money where our mouths are BEFORE the gates open.  Good points on Esky's run in the BC Juvenile last year.  Spend a Buck ran third on a CA track behind Chief's Crown in the first BC Juvenile, coming out with a bone chip on his knee requiring surgey.  He went on to dominate his field in the '85 Derby.  Horses do change and improve from 2 to 3 and Esky has done that before our very eyes.  The Wood was a good workout for him, laying off a slow pace and cruising by the pacesetter, leaving Jackson Bend and Awesome Act in his wake without breaking a sweat with a 109 Beyer. SCARY!

I'll take 9-5 or 2-1 and if maybe 5-2 even better but I'll take whatever it is because he's going to win the Derby , then the Preakness and the Belmont.  I'm going to the Belmont this year and witness our first TCW in 32 years.

Eskendereya

Lookin at Lucky

Sidney's Candy

Ice Box

Endorsement

14 Apr 2010 9:44 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Since 2000, every other year the Kentucky Derby has been won by a horse who won their final prep race. Every even year (2000, '02, '04, etc.) had a horse who won their final prep as the winner. Every odd year the winner was either 2nd (three times) or 4th (twice).

It was getting harder and harder trying to find past performances for derby horses after 2000.

So, given such a distinct pattern I will only bet winners of their prep races on my pick 3 (unless they are on the rail, or have Storm Cat bloodlines, or if Dray picks them).

14 Apr 2010 9:58 PM
sherpa

I just wish people would remember that 85ina50's BIT BROKE in the Whirlaway.  Show me the horse that wouldn't panic and run off the track if that happened to them.

<grumble grumble>

14 Apr 2010 10:09 PM
JOE

I JUST HAD TO WRITE THIS ONE IN THE BOOKS.  EQUIBASE HAS A SPOT THAT THEY KEEP TRACK OF THE NORTH AMERICAN RACING LEADERS AND HOW MUCH MONEY THEY HAVE EARNED TO DATE  AND AT THE TOP OF THAT LIST YOU WILL SEE MISSION IMPAZIBLES NAME FOR AROUND 10 MILLION DOLLARS AFTER HE WINS THE BELMONT STAKES IN JUNE AND THAT PRICE WOULD INCLUDE THE TRIPLE CROWN BONUS.    IN AUGUST WHEN MISSION IMPAZIBLE IS AT THE TRAVERS AT SARATOGA YOU WILL SEE HIM WIN AGAIN.   WHEN RAJIV PUSHES THE BUTTON ON MISSION IMPAZIBLE YOU BEST BE SITTING DOWN.   IF MISSION IMPAZIBLE GOES OFF ANY HIGHER THEN 50/1 IN THE K. DERBY IT WILL FEEL LIKE YOU JUST HIT THE LOTTERY.     JOE

14 Apr 2010 10:15 PM
Matthew W

Sydney's Candy indeed makes this a fun race! I'm getting the same "wiseguy vibes" that were so prevelant last Nov for Zenyatta not being able to win the Classic---seems everybody is off Sydney--and yet.....two turns over the pro ride--regardless of pace---regardless---speed just doesn't hold up out there---and Talamo on the pace--that, too is huge---how fast is important---how relaxed is just as important--Talamo has ridden him to a "T"---bonus points: two nice horses, Caracortado and Setsuko (probably) won't qualify on earnings--there are things that point to a Sydney's Candy Derby romp.......

14 Apr 2010 10:20 PM
jayjay

Looks like the Endorsement bandwagon is getting full very very quickly.  I'm sticking to my picks I posted in the other blog :

Looking At Lucky : I just hope GoGo gets his head back together and rides him clear, it's not like he needs any more challenges when running in the KD.

Eskendereya : I do believe he is the real deal, until he loses, I think he's going to be a good candidate for the triple crown

Long shots :

Dean's Kitten : He's my longshot, I liked his race at TP, he moved pretty early on the last turn and continued to power home.

Ice Box : His late running style suits CD so I'm looking for him to fly late...and hoping I'd get him on a WIN or exotic bet.

I see Draynay is still bashing Esky lol.  I guess we'll see come the first Saturday in May.  I think every horse he's picked (prior to them winning that is,except NP who hasn't won this year) has either injured themselves or lost their next race so now that he's on the Endorsement and Looking at Lucky's bandwagons, he's going to jinx both horses.  I can't wait for Draynay to make his Derby Winner pick the day after the derby LOL.  I'm quite sure he'll get it right ;)

14 Apr 2010 10:21 PM
Greg J.

Sherpa,

    Thank You!  I was waiting for someone to mention what actually happened to 85ina50.  So, He isn't a nut, Just a very fast colt who had his bit break and Chavez had no control after that.

Mike Relva,

     I believe "Dancing in my Dreams" is still at Caddel Equine Therapy Center near Georgetown, Kentucky.  

While alot can still happen in the next 2 1/2 weeks, As of right now, Esky, Backtalk, Jackson Bend, Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin are my top six.  While a longshot, I would love to have Esky, Mission Impazible, and Backtalk as the top three...

I will say this, Endorsement has NO shot if Dray is picking him, But, I want Dray to stick with him and not jinx one of my favorites...

14 Apr 2010 10:30 PM
Greg J.

Oops, I believe I left off Jackson Bend in my top six/seven, lol...

14 Apr 2010 10:35 PM
snow

Sherpa,

I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I'd like to sell you if you believe that Eightyfiveinafifty's bit breaking was the cause for him to bolt the first turn during the Whirlaway.

14 Apr 2010 10:41 PM
Winner14Derbys

So, Draynay. Eske is a sucker bet? I bet YOU $100 that when he runs 1st or 2nd, you magically have the winning ticket multuple times. I've seen it a million times from you.

14 Apr 2010 11:06 PM
draynay

When you're as smart as me sometimes you think you're all alone. Dealing with people of average IQ is at times a difficult thing for me to do but I realize many of you need me or how would you ever pick a winner.  But it's good to know there are others that see things as clearly as I do.

http://mossblog.typepad.com/

Where would Esky have been in the Arkansas running the same time he did in the Wood? He would have been 15 lengths behind at the 6 furlong pole getting dirt kicked his face.  What ?  You say he has no problem running faster ?  You mean take him out of his natural gait, his fluid stride ?  I can tell you what will happen he will melt under the pressure.  Horses having never faced the fractions they will see in the Derby cannot be expected to hold up during the long stretch at Churchill.  Esky is not your winner and Rule, Line of David, and Sidney's Candy can be thrown out all together.  The pace will be hot and horses who are deep in foundation will be there in the end.  Horses like Dublin, Lookin At Lucky, and Noble's Promise.  I am glad to help. You can all thank me later.

14 Apr 2010 11:11 PM
Pattern man

To TJLuvsTizs, I enjoy looking for KD winner patterns too.  Here's another to add to your list - KD winners are completely devoid of AP Indy (i see you already noticed the Storm Cat void).  

Have you noticed the trainer losses pattern yet?

14 Apr 2010 11:31 PM
Zookeeper

Greg J.

Jackson Bend and Backtalk MAY still get in the Derby, but it would need 2 defections. My first choice for a dropout is Homeboykris, who's else?

14 Apr 2010 11:42 PM
joeywoge

Joe,

   There is NO SHOT Mission Impazible is even in the top 10!! Would you stop.

14 Apr 2010 11:45 PM
Greg J.

Snow,

    How much for the bridge in Brooklyn?

14 Apr 2010 11:58 PM
Greg J.

Zookeeper,

    Still 17 days to the Derby, There will be 3-4 that are currently in the top twenty that will drop out, Stay tuned...

15 Apr 2010 12:00 AM
snow

Greg J.,

Oh, I'd sell it to you for a bottle of Contessa hogwash.

15 Apr 2010 12:10 AM
Tim G

Man I finally stopped laughing long enough to comment.....

.......On second thought.

Dray, you have a seriously inflated opinion of your intellect and an even more delusional opinion of your handicapping skills.

I've seen you speak, you ain't that smart....

I would say it's sarcasm but I really think you believe your ramblings. Time to head back to the 'home'.

What? Already off Endorsement??

You don't want Dublin (please dear lord, NOOOOOO).

Kevin, I also believe grasshopper has one lesson left to learn from the master. However, he's still holding back that last bit of info.

Lookin at Lucky will finally live up to Karl Watson??? Become a multi-millionaire? Well hope not for my own selfish reasons.

Jake gives Todd great horses????Huh?

15 Apr 2010 12:11 AM
Tim G

Greg, that's no newsflash, happens every year. Some worse than others.

15 Apr 2010 12:12 AM
Greg J.

Dray,

   You crack me up, You post a link to Randy's Blog, But, Did you actually read it?  Alot of "If's" in his piece Dray, But, Some choice lines for you:

"He has run by far the fastest of these 3-year-olds...A mile and a quarter should be a piece of cake"

"Todd Pletcher’s 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby is meaningless, because he’ll have multiple Derby trophies before you know it."

"These concerns can qualify as nit-picking, especially if a horse has clearly superior talent. There were similar issues with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and he rallied from far back when Kent Desormeaux somehow got through along the rail at every critical stage. Two years ago, Big Brown’s post position draw was disastrous, and it didn’t matter a bit."

Lastly Dray, Randy writes:

"Eskendereya is still the horse to beat, and a deserving Derby favorite..."

What gets me, At the top of this thread(April 13, 3:01 p.m.), Your comment:

"ADVANTAGE... Endorsement

Winner... Endorsement"

Now???, No mention of him, lol...

"

15 Apr 2010 12:17 AM
SlewStable

SID'S CANDY  is  the  real  deal. By  running  slow  early  fractions  and  coming  home  fast  his  rate-ability  is  demonstrated. How  many  horses  win  by  4 1/2  lengths  on  the  pro-ride ( he  did  gearing  down ). He  started  the  year  @ 7Fur - went  to  1 1/16 - then 1 1/8  just  like  the  great  horses  of  yesteryear. He's  unbeaten  this  year , showed  pizazz  at  two  and  never  really  looks  tired  after  his  races , as  his  gallop-outs  are  the  best. Dirt  is  the  only  variable  - speed  horses  run  better  on  dirt. I  think  he  lies  off  of  any  duelers ( Conveyance and Line of David) takes  over  at  far  turn - bursts  clear  by  three  at  top  of  stretch  - then  tries to  hold  off  ESKY. I  think  he  can - will  find  out  soon.

15 Apr 2010 12:51 AM
SlewStable

Dublin's  a  dog. Lucas'  time  has  passed.

15 Apr 2010 12:52 AM
tcc

Jason:

Look's like Todd P. is trying to add another horse to his Derby lineup, with Connemara entered in the Lexington and if he wins this race he could have enough earnings to make the top 20.

15 Apr 2010 1:20 AM
papillon

It Ain't Easy Being Good--

I just re-watched Hard Spun's Derby. Wow--I hadn't even been thinking that Rule and he were that similar but...wow...yeah, I think Rule's derby will be very similar, with similar fractions--Rule can easily get the 6 furlongs in 1:11 that's for sure.

The difference is that this year Calvin Borel won't be there to give the dead closer the perfect trip up the rail--he'll be pushing the pace on Rule's stablemate Super Saver and that makes a world of difference between 2007 and 2010!

I wish I knew who will be riding Rule...sigh...right now it looks like Mike Smith is the only jokey without a mount...Winstar is being tight lipped about which of their horses they think is best...

2007 Derby with Hard Spun

www.youtube.com/watch

Bretsky99--I don't really see Rule having any trouble with a 46 first 1/2--his first halves are usually right around there.

TJluvsTizs--I may be wrong but I don't think they couple horses at the derby anymore

Draynay--you and I are on the exact same page regarding Eskendereya

To whoever above said that Mine that Bird wasn't a great horse, I beg to disagree--he might not be Cigar, but he is a great little  horse for sure. I'm looking forward to seeing his name in the news again when he comes back for the Stephen Foster (and am praying Big Z goes elsewhere to give to give the little guy a shot--I think having her giant frame in the back with him at the Breeders Cup last year scared him to death. LOL).

15 Apr 2010 1:27 AM
Slew

85ina50's trainer already said he's a one turn horse.  Fast? Yes! Distance? No.  I like him, but wouldn't trust him in a 20 horse field.  They also don't really know if his bit broke first, or broke afterward...they said his equipment was all shredded from going through the trees.

15 Apr 2010 1:28 AM
Saratoga AJ

sherpa:

Good point. That certainly didn't help.

15 Apr 2010 2:12 AM
basil

esky will be abiut 6-8 th place mid race with rule 2-3 pl on the turn esky 3 ,rule 1 top of stretch esky 1 ,rule 2 at the finish johny v has esky under wraps ( saving horse for preakness ) 10 lenghth victory rule  2 or 3rd in exotics.remember no one would compete because of fear in wood  you can only beat the horses that show up with health triple crown easy

15 Apr 2010 2:20 AM
JOE

THIS YEARS K.DERBY WINNER WILL BE COMING FROM THE FIRST SET OF 10 HORSES TO THE ONE MILE AND ONE EIGHTH POLE AND THEN BAM BAM JUST LIKE EMERALD SAYS OUT OF THE PACK MISSION IMPAZIBLE WILL WIN PULLING AWAY BY 9 TO 10 LENGTHS.

15 Apr 2010 6:27 AM
Saratoga AJ

I kind of liked Dublin earlier this year, and it's good to see D Wayne back in the Derby picture. But a word to the wise, DO NOT use him in the Derby. Why? Because he absolutely hates Churchill.

His two worse races, and by far worst Beyers were in his two starts at Churchill. His Beyers have been mostly in the 90's (4 times) and 80's (twice). Churchill? 62 and 66. Both times up the track.

You want to bet him? Wait for the Preakness or wherever he goes later in the year. But not at Churchill, which has always been a fairly bias oval. History is full of some very good horses that just did not run well there.

15 Apr 2010 7:07 AM
Mike Relva

GREG J

Thanks! I like SC and NP.

15 Apr 2010 7:53 AM
Niskayuna Bud

Saratoga AJ,

Your comments are dead on.  Barring a bad post and traffic trouble during the race, Eskendereya looks to be best.  Even Pletcher's 0-24 in the K Derby won't deter me - Pletcher knows he has his best chance to date with Esky.  I have had some tough beats with Johnny V., but I think both he and Pletcher are finally going to win their first Derby.  Lookin at Lucky is a good horse too, but I am not confident Gomez will keep him out of traffic trouble.  My prediction is that LAL will find trouble again, but come along strong to finish behind Esky.  Of course, I will have several other hedge bets on other horses as we all know anything can happen in horse racing.  Good luck to all.

15 Apr 2010 9:20 AM
Billy's Empire

Papillion,

I am total agreeance with you, I just do not know if that front runner that stays is going to be Super Saver, Rule, or Sydney's Candy. They will all be close to the pace, but we can not even begin to think who will be hustled up to the lead on the first turn until the post position draw.

Should be a fun first mile!!

15 Apr 2010 9:45 AM
Ranagulzion

Greg J,

It is very clear that Draynay is running scared of the Todd squad juggernaut.  He is too proud to join Esky's waggon this late in the game and is totally confused about the outcome.  One moment he gives out that "foundation" is what wins the derby and scrambles between Looking At Lucky, Noble's Promise and Dublin (changing his preferred order each time) and the next moment he abandons the "foundation" argument all together to tout the "big-on-talent, short-on-seasoning Winstar colt Endorsement.  He has even denied his favourite Beyer speed-figures handicapping angle and Pro-ride slamming to knock down Grade 1 (trotter LOL) Eskendereya (a perfect 3 for 3 on dirt, with by far the best speed figures, cantering).  In my opinion Dray has no more credibility and unless he comes honest I'll disregard his posts from here on (antics included).  

15 Apr 2010 9:53 AM
Ranagulzion

Greg J,

Esky is actually a perfect 4 wins in 4 starts on dirt (losing on his debut on the Turf and on Pro-ride in the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita).  He continues to improve and I believe that he's gonna make "mince-meat" of the Derby field and attract very small fields for the remainder of the triple crown series.

15 Apr 2010 10:04 AM
Ranagulzion

Slew,

Your comments about Eightyfiveinafifty were hillarious ... "They also don't really know if his bit broke first, or broke afterward ... they said his equipment was all shredded from going through the trees." (LOL)

That colt is indeed freaky fast and his joining the Derby line-up pursuant to winning the Derby Trial Stakes would no doubt add more spice to an already salty line-up.  My only fear would be whether he might bolt again due to the fever-pitch crowd excitement, but the fairly long run up to the first turn should mitigate that possibility.  My guess is that even Line Of David and Sidney's Candy would be scared to challenge him for the dread of being coooked after a half mile.  The pace scenario would definitely take on a different complexion because no one knows if "Eightyfive" is capable of doing a "War Emblem".  When it comes to speed this colt is indeed the "alpha dog" (with due respect to D'Funnybone). Still more interesting days ahead. Let's enjoy.  

15 Apr 2010 10:28 AM
TJLuvsTizs

Pattern man,

I guess I am a little more critical of Storm Cat than AP Indy given SC is 6 years older and much more of a presence in broodmares at this point than Ap Indy. I also see Storm Cat as much more of a Speed influence and AP Indy as a Stamina influence given his Belmont winners, and his own accomplishments.

If AP Indy does not show up in the next three years it may lean to much more of a trend than it is right now. AP Indy has had now 13 crops of racing age, Storm cat 19-20.  

AP Indy's half brother Summer Squall had a winner in the derby, I am sure it is not long before AP Indy shows up in a derby pedigree.

Endorsement and Discreetly Mine may be AP Indy's best chances this year.  Esky and Sidney's Candy are far and away Storm Cat's best chances this year.  Finally, Ice Box could end the drought for both.

15 Apr 2010 10:32 AM
TJLuvsTizs

Ranagulzion,

There is no chance that whoever the derby winner is, or how big they win it by that there will be a shortage of runners to face.  Case in point 2008 when Big Brown won big, he still had a full field of 12 in the Preakness, and a respectable 9 starters in the Belmont.  

There will likely be at least 4 returning from the Derby, plus Drosselmeyer, D'Funnybone, Schoolyard Dreams, 85ina50, Pleasant Prince, Setsuko, Tempted to Tapit and likely a couple others as one or two of the above may not make it.

No matter how scary the KD winner may be, the lust for owners to appear on the TC trail will overcome any doubt.

15 Apr 2010 10:42 AM
Ranagulzion

Adding spice to a salty line-up that is going to be cooked on the front end and made minced meat down the stretch does give us all a healthy appetite for the Kentucky Derby doesn't it? Unless of course you are one of those who despair of the thought of eating crow afterwords ...are you paying attention Mike Relva, Coldfacts, Forbidden Apple ...and yes you Draynay?

15 Apr 2010 10:43 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

FOR YOUR INFORMATION

  Eightyfiveinafifty did NOT bolt or have a broken bit. He had to go to the bathroom really, really, really bad and didn't want to embarrass himself in public.

15 Apr 2010 10:54 AM
draynay

I get excited about the latest and greatest horse but when it comes down to 20 horses running in May you have to look at who are the tough horses and who are the flash in the pans.  My comments about Endorsement were simply a comparison to Esky.  Endorsement has better speed and breeding and I believe he should be ranked in front of Esky IMO.  I still believe the 2 best horses in the race are Noble and LAL.  I will be tossing all the speed and anyone who thinks Ice Box hits the board needs their head examined.  Toss Rule he is a waste of time along with all the other so called speed horses.  

15 Apr 2010 11:32 AM
Saratoga AJ

Ranagulzion:

Can you just imagine if 85ina50 was in the Derby and drew an inside post? And he pulled the "turn right Whirlaway Stakes move" as he did in February? He'd wipe out the whole damn field! lol.

Anyway, the only logical place for 85ina50 to even attempt a TC race would be the Preakness. I'm not sure he can even go a mile. We'll see in 9 days.

By the way, he worked yesterday...another of his 58 five furlong moves. He consistently works in 58 or barely over it, and usually 3-6+ seconds faster than any other horse that day and distance. They tried to get to do 1:00 or 1:01 yesterday, but they just can't get him to do it. Fast horse. If he folds with the distance, his connections would be smart to point him for the BC Sprint in November.

15 Apr 2010 11:52 AM
It Aint Easy being good

haha where is coldfacts been? I am still waiting to hear about his beloved connemara horse if he wins he can give the todd squad his last derby horse! I pray 80anda50 doesnt go to the derby it would screw up everyone thats running up front that horse is the speed of speed and is lights out for about a mile!

15 Apr 2010 12:02 PM
MTBFan(still)

I still like Paddy O'Prado. He had a VERY impressive run in the Bluegrass. Very aggresive, but he just got swept away by a surprising horse (will Stately Victor come back, or did he just have two minutes of fame?). Noble's Promise had gained a LOT of experience in his races against Looking at Lucky and he seems very tenacious. Those two seem very good.

15 Apr 2010 12:10 PM
papillon

Billy's Empire said "I am in total agreeance with you, I just do not know if that front runner that stays is going to be Super Saver, Rule, or Sydney's Candy."

Nor do I, but I'm pretty loyal to the horses I pick, so I'll stick with Rule, cross my fingers, and hope for the best =)

Billy's Empire said "They will all be close to the pace, but we can not even begin to think who will be hustled up to the lead on the first turn until the post position draw."

True that. Here's what I'm betting  on (praying for):

1953 Kentucky Derby

www.youtube.com/watch

Niskayuna--But in a 20 horse field, any horse that doesn't go straight to the lead will have some traffic problems. It's inevitable.

Considering that Lucky has shown many times now that traffic problems don't rattle him, while Eskendereya has shown, on the only occasion he's had to cope with them, that they do rattle him--it seems a safer bet to me to back Lucky over Eskendereya (Lucky will have better odds too most likely).

About 85anda50 in the Derby:

To run 85anda50 in a 20 horse race is grossly negligent. Maybe he's not really a head case, but it's asinine and dangerous to test it in the most stressful race in the world. I'll offer right now to represent pro bono any owner who's horse gets hurt should 85anda50 run and freak out.

15 Apr 2010 12:19 PM
Pattern man

TJLuvsTizs - AP Indy has been the sire or damsire of more Derby starters than Storm Cat.  Since 2002 Indy has sired 13 starters, damsire of 5.  Storm Cat has sired 8 starters, damsire of 3.  If you go back and check you'll find they both started becoming significant forces in Derby starters at about the same time. So the fact that Storm cat stood longer is statistically insignificant.  

By numbers Indy is a worse bet than Storm Cat.  I find it amusing because he's so highly regarded as a "stamina influence".  Storm Cat is not.  Year after year people say "oh, such-and-such colt has an outstanding stamina pedigree" because Indy is the sire or damsire.  And year after year he fails to produce a KD winner.  

15 Apr 2010 12:30 PM
street sense

the question is which derby prep race was the best this year. my opinion is the arkansas derby was the one prep race that most resembled what the derby will be run like . it had a fast pace  graded placed horses in dublin and super saver and most important it was run on a dirt track.

15 Apr 2010 12:31 PM
Shiznik

Freetex,

I believe post position 20 (Big Brown) has the highest win % in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Of course, there hasn't been 20 horse fields in most years, but, when there is, that is the top win % post.

15 Apr 2010 1:18 PM
Ted from LA

papillon,

Will you be chasing the ambulance at Chuchill Downs only if 85anda50 runs or either way?  I like Sonny Bono too.  Tradegy what happened to him.  At least we still have Cher.

15 Apr 2010 1:29 PM
Tim G

AJ, 1st out on a good track? Second run over the track was when he was having his breathing difficulties.

Lets wait to see how he works??

Not many have run at CD and only one of those had a respectable showing.

SlewsStable, you WISH you had a dog like Dublin. LOL

Now that we know some guy named Lucas is hanging out around the barn Wayne LuKas can boot him out and Dublin will be just fine...

15 Apr 2010 1:31 PM
Matthew W

If Dublin's a dog then I'm a dog catcher! D Wayne Lukas didn't need an Arkansas derby win---D Wayne Lukas knows how to win The Kentucky Derby--toss his horse, go ahead! D Wayne Lukas has paid big--even boxcars--in The Kentucky Derby....less sugardaddies--same horse trainer.....

15 Apr 2010 2:06 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Pattern Man,

Storm Cat has been represented in 29 Kentucky Derby runners compared to AP Indy's 18.  That is statistically significant.  I don't view Storm Cat as a Stamina influence, I see him as a speed influence.  AP Indy has been recognized as a "chefs de race" as a stallion with "IC" (Intermediate- Classic) influence which is much more suited with stamina.

Giants Causeway was a horse that was bred beautifully with Speed through the sire and stamina through the mare.  He has the chance of being a stamina influence and may help Esky.

AP Indy has been represented by a handful of recent Belmont winners, I think to discount his stamina influence would be fool-hearty.  A horse needs a good combination of Speed and Stamina, and Ice Box's Pedigree looks like a great mix.

15 Apr 2010 2:39 PM
thederbydream.com

Talking with one of Noble Promise owners today and said they are very much leaning towards not running in the Derby. Could possibly go to Preakness instead to give him more time to get over Lung infection. Said cuts were of no issue. Derby fever is a strong thing to get over though so I would say the door is still slightly open.

15 Apr 2010 2:43 PM
El Kabong

WinnahPickah

If track comes up sloppy just the opposite. Synthetics came up 1,2,4,5 last year and yes, Mind That Bird was a Synthetic Horse, 6  of 8 before the derby. 2 dirt preps as a 3 year old, but his foundation was all synthetic.

15 Apr 2010 2:53 PM
Matthew W

Storm Cat got his precocity from Terlingua, the daughter of Secretariat/Crimson Saint, and Crimson Saint had the best turn of foot I ever saw....

15 Apr 2010 2:55 PM
El Kabong

WinnahPickah

Mine that bird had a terrible pedigree and thompson rating for off track(3rd worst in field). Chocolate Candy, placed fifth and he had the 2nd worst thompson rating for off tracks. That is why I attribute the conditioning of synthetics to be favorable for off tracks. Papa Clem and Pioneer were under 400, so it's not in the genes. Papa Clem ran second to Friesan FIre in the L-Derby  in the slop, his first time on dirt.

15 Apr 2010 2:58 PM
Matthew W

How many Tiznows in the Derby this year? American Lion and whom else? Tiznow had a breeding nick, Tiznow is a stamina influence and he has shown he can "pass on' his signature toughness....

15 Apr 2010 2:59 PM
El Kabong

Winnah Pickah

Great question by the way concerning off track. I just remembered that Musket Man, who ran 3rd, ran most of his races, 3 of 4 on the deep surface of Tampa Bay before winning the Ill. Derby. Gives a horse great conditioning, much like pro ride.  We could be on to something if it comes up sloppy, but I hope like hell it doesn't. We're in for a helluva race and that would spoil it.

15 Apr 2010 3:08 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Didnt someone just say that dublins two worst races were at churchill if thats the case....TOSS! TOSS! TOSS

Hey JOE who do you like in the derby again? lol! Does this guy come on here and hit the copy and paste button? Joe how many lengths is your horse going to win by again I forgot can you remind me!

Sleeper with big odds: American Lion take it to the bank and thank me later the messiah has spoken!

15 Apr 2010 3:10 PM
draynay

TJ ? Huh ? Ice Box looks like a great breeding mix ? I think you better look at Endorsement for a GREAT breeding mix.

15 Apr 2010 3:15 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

Will be really interesting when it doesn't work out for you regarding your pal,Todd. You know as well as I do anything can happen. Case in point,I Want Revenge scratched on Derby day,MTB winning. Do you think ANYONE on this blog or any had MTB winning????????????????

15 Apr 2010 3:26 PM
Zookeeper

Matthew W,

American Lion is the only Tiznow in the Derby. His other prominent 3yr old Tiz Chrome fell off the trail.

15 Apr 2010 3:31 PM
Jason Shandler

It Aint Easy: Yeah, American Lion really frightended us with those blazing splits he set in the Illinois Derby.

15 Apr 2010 3:39 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Jason he will hit the board may 1st buddy I will personally bet you and give you my mailing address so I can collect.

This race sets up perfect for him. He has proven he can handle the dirt and won his last prep. Can stay out of trouble, has early speed and carry his speed.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZ......AMERICAN LION ....DONT SLEEP! LOL!

15 Apr 2010 4:21 PM
Jason Shandler

I'll take that bet. Email me and we'll get the details ironed out. He wont hit the board.

15 Apr 2010 4:33 PM
Zarkava

It Aint Easy being good 15 Apr 2010 3:10 PM

Yea, what´s with the JOE dude..? He creeps me out, I sort of like Mission Impazible, but Joe feels like a major jinx...

15 Apr 2010 4:37 PM
draynay

American Lion ?  You have to be kidding me.  Jason, Jason I want in on that too!  American Lion won't hit the board unless he walks into it after the race.

15 Apr 2010 4:39 PM
Tim G

I Think IAEBG has had too much caffeine or reading Dray's night of a thousand Derby picks has driven him/her over the edge.

Toss Dub at your own peril, especially to pick up on AL????

All this pedigree stuff only carries a horse so far. How many super pedigreed horses have flubbed in the Derby?

Anyone who buys a horse purely on pedigree, may have a lot of disappointment ahead of them.

I would bet there's just a handful of people on here who have any real insight as to what is going on with these horses in real time.

Mark (thederbydream), Justin, Jason and a few of us. The rest is reading, studying pedigree, Beyers and giving opinions. Still it's entertaining...

Whoever asked? I had money on MTB, apparently others did too or he'd have been 99-1. Mine was a sentimental bet for Doc.

I also had a chunk of change on Thunder Gulch, Charismatic and a few others. Seems my sentimental bets do better for me. That's how unpredictable the Derby can be, more often than you all seem to think.

15 Apr 2010 5:15 PM
Carlos in Cali

It Aint Easy..

If you like giving away money so readily,there's a whole bunch of worthy charities I can direct you to. Jason(there's not a bet I won't take)Shandler has enough money stored away,heck..he owns Show-dogs.Need I say more.

American Lion has no shot.Your bed is getting colder and colder and colder and....

15 Apr 2010 5:31 PM
It Aint Easy being good

My email is atrain44@hotmail.com ....jason get your popcorn ready.

Dray you dont pay on your bets. Sorry but the truth hurts. Your boy Noble Promise didnt perform, Dunkirk didnt perform and you didnt wear pink at all when you ate a wheel barrel of crow last year!

AMERICAN LION WPS BABY! OH Yeah who ran a bullet yesterday too....thats right American Lion RARRHR! LOL

15 Apr 2010 5:37 PM
CV

"Eightyfiveinafifty did NOT bolt or have a broken bit. He had to go to the bathroom really, really, really bad and didn't want to embarrass himself in public."

--Dr Drunkinbum

I laughed and laughed. What a visual! 'Clear the way, I'm coming through, where's the restroom?'

15 Apr 2010 5:40 PM
CV

A little off topic, but did Stardom Bound have some sort of injury? I thought they had just decided to try a new jockey on her this season.

15 Apr 2010 5:41 PM
Carlos in Cali

Tim G

Thunder Gulch,Charismatic?..Dublin?...ok-ok we get.You're a BIG Lukas fan,did you have Flying Private and that other horse last year too?

I was a big Lukas fan back in the day,til' he ruined the Champion Capote(like Woody Stephens said he would).And,basically over-ran & underachieved with his upscale stock of  horses since the mid 90's...$$$$$$. Him losing clients left & right,then high tailing it out of Cali was a sign of things to come. He's lost that golden touch,it happens.

Wait,before you question my 'IN the know' connection. One of my Compadres worked closely with him for years @ Santa Anita year-round.

15 Apr 2010 6:03 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

I'm hoping Esky won't scratch cause I don't wanna here what he might have done from you!

15 Apr 2010 6:24 PM
Mike Relva

Unlike many on here(whom I won't name) I don't change Derby selections 990 times! I'm going with either N.P. or S.C. for the win.

15 Apr 2010 6:26 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Carlos my man I have had too many nightmares about dublin that I will sleep on the floor I am not taking that horse he wont win he is a mile horse.

You guys all talk about how great of a trainer he is when is the last time he has won a triple crown race?  

Lukas=Holyfield....... past his prime!

I might turn into joe on this blog and just post the same thing about american lion in every post! lol!

15 Apr 2010 6:48 PM
Kat

Papillon - You only have to go back to 2008 to see a horse not going "straight" to the lead (unless I'm misinterpreting your meaning) and not having traffic problems.  This is what Esky will have to do also (assuming his pp helps him).

I do agree with you about irresponsibility to all involved in regards to running 85ina50 in the Derby.

Ted - You shouldn't mention Sonny and 85ina50 in the same sentence, they could easily share the same fate. . .

15 Apr 2010 7:22 PM
Tim G

Carlos,yes you've said that before.

I've known him for years. I know full well what he's capable of doing in the Derby. THAT is what still attracts owners to him, keeps the ones who've been around for many years. The ones who move on? Well lots of owners do that.

The BIG owners, dang, most of them died. Shame on them

I also had Smarty and dang,Afleet Alex and I can't even recall some of the ones I bet on who had NOTHING to do with Wayne. I had winners even back in the early 70's. Lots of longshots, well except Secretariat.

THAT is what we were talking about, pay attention. Horses like MTB and others that paid off, like Giacamo.

I was just giving examples of some good paying horses in the Derby, that I happened to have a bet on. Like Matthew said.

Plus this is the Derby we're talking about, I have my pick and it's part being a fan and part other things.  You can't fail to mention him when he has one who has performed pretty well in the preps.

Capote? He admits he misread the horse and thought he was okay to run. Such old news. Like I said, what about the connections who actually mistreat their horses, are running their stables from jail?  That's what I said before.

You want to beat up on Wayne, and you seem to, fine. But get over it, the horse became a sire and that was years ago, lived to the ripe old age of 23 and just HOW did the horse not doing anything in the Derby actually affect you long term?

Funny, he's had a lot of long time employees who have gone on to great things, have nothing but good things to say about the operation. Maybe take a look at your bud instead?

It just irks me when people try to beat up on trainers like Todd and Wayne based on secondhand information and opinions.

We get it, you love the Cal horses. Yet my bet is you'd hear some stories about Bob too. Maybe you don't remember his story from wayyyy back. Also you'd know that even HE has pulled horses from Cal and has contemplated leaving, just other things keep him there.

If you read back, I've been on Dublin for a really long time, heck I was 'on him' from his first race on. Will he win the Derby? Well I guess why they still run them and what we shoot for, not the vote of 'fans'.

15 Apr 2010 7:48 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

CV

  Glad you enjoyed it !!!! No, Stardom Bound isn't injured. She just doesn't want to run at a high level anymore. She wants to get together with her boyfriend-Big Brown to produce "Brownie Points"

15 Apr 2010 7:53 PM
Tim G

IAEBG, when was the last time Richard Mandella won a TC race? When was the last time the late Bob Frankel won one?

I see you hyping AL, careful, when was the last time Eoin won the Derby... oops.

It's been a while for any of the multiple winners to win the race that matters most, but they're all taken seriously when they have one in.  It's been a REALLY long time since Nick has won a Derby, yet he's still considered one of the big 3.

Like I said before, cut down on the caffeine

15 Apr 2010 8:03 PM
Householder

Now we are rolling.  Baffert's big guns had works over the track today.  Lookin at Lucky will have close to 3 weeks to train with Bob going without the Blinks.  Plenty of targets out in front, to keep his mind on business, including Conveyance who also worked.  L at Lucky may simply outclass them all..and in a Pletcher vs. Baffert I know where my money is going.  

15 Apr 2010 8:08 PM
Householder

Thanks Saratoga AJ for 85ina50 information.  I was live for Quality Road's BC gate antics.  Both are good reminders that Derby day, both before and after the gate opens, puts a lot of stess on some animals who in turn freak.  I can't help but think that some of the bumping and positioning into turn one have something to due with the crowd and noise.  

15 Apr 2010 8:21 PM
Freetex

Yes, any one of the 20 entered in The Kentucky Derby could win.  It kind of levels the playing field for everyone.

My last win was War Emblem and I felt pretty good about it.  No, I didn't bet Big Brown to win, just in exotics which didn't work.  

Last year, I loved Summer Bird and he came through for me in The Belmont along with Dunkirk and Mine That Bird.  

Oh, whoever wrote the great advice on Post 20, your a stitch.

15 Apr 2010 8:22 PM
Freetex

Interesting news.  Baffert is taking the blinkers off of Lookin at Lucky for the Derby.  Sounds like a great move, and may help Lucky keep out of trouble.

15 Apr 2010 8:31 PM
Householder

Jason there will be nothing disappointing if one can pick the first 4 finishers.  Looks like a great betting year.  25,000 Superfectas!  I'm just waiting for you to give me this year's Musket Man!

Pioneer of the Nile (West)

Papa Clem (West)

Chocolate Candy (West)

Musket Man (Jason's pick)

Superfecta Box

Thought I had the ticket at the 1/8th pole.

15 Apr 2010 8:32 PM
Householder

This Dublin could be a "Musket Man."  He's always hangin around.  But with so much speed it could be something backing up as opposed to closing (e.g., Conveyance) for fourth.  

15 Apr 2010 8:34 PM
Tim G

Yes that's interesting about taking off the blinkers for the Derby. He must not have settled as well as Bob would want.....

Now, call me a softy but I'm pulling for Uptowncharlybrown.

Not much of a gimmick/exotic bettor but trying to settle on a couple....

15 Apr 2010 9:04 PM
JOE

MISSION IMPAZIBLES POWER RANKING IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL THE DERBY STARTERS TO DATE.   MISSION IMPAZIBLE KEEPS IMPROVING EACH RACE AND TODD P. KNOWS.  UNBRIDLED WON THE K.DERBY AND NOW ITS TIME FOR MISSION IMPAZIBLES TO WIN THE K.DERBY.  BLOOD RUNS THICK AND ON K. DERBY DAY WHEN MISSION IMPAZIBLE IS PULLING AWAY AND WINS BY TEN LENGTHS TAKE A CLOSE LOOK BECAUSE YOU MAY SEE UNBRIDLED IN MISSION IMPAZIBLES SHADOW.  TODD AND RAJIV KNOW THAT MISSION IMPAZIBLE HAD A TON NO MAKE THAT TEN TONS OF HORSE LEFT AFTER WINNING THE L.DERBY.  WHEN MISSION IMPAZIBLE SPLITS HORSAES AT THE ONE MILE AND SIXTEENTH POLE PEOPLE ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE GOING TO BE SAYING DID YOU SEE THAT AND WHO WAS THAT AND OH MY GOD ITS MISSION IMPAZIBLE AND HE PULLING AWAY AND NOW HE IS IN FRONT BY 10 LENGTHS AND THE REST OF THE FIELD IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.  I SAW GIACOMOS RACE THE SAME WAY AND THE RACE CAME OUT JUST LIKE I SAID IT WOULD AND YES I DID TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.   RAJIVS GOING TO SAY I PUSHED THE BUTTON AND HE STARTED FLYING.    JOE

15 Apr 2010 9:18 PM
draynay

I read that Mr. Pletcher is FINALLY going to work the Derby Lock of 2010 Eskendereya.  13 days before his big date with destiny and he is FINALLY going to have his first work ??? If this doesn't send up red flags for you what does ?  At best he will have one more work and it seems highly unlikely that he will be in top form with just 2 works.  But he is a lock right?  LOL.  Now I understand why he is 0 for 24.

15 Apr 2010 9:30 PM
Auburnbill

Saratoga AJ and IAEBG -

Please don't tell any big win betters this, but Dublin's bad races as Churchill were before his surgery for a stuck epiglogus on something of the sort that was restricting his airflow. Dismiss him and Lucas at your own peril. If I can get 30-1 on him May 1, you'll recognize me -- I'll be the one saying "Praise the Lord" as I repeatedly punch the "repeat bet" button on $100 win tickets.

15 Apr 2010 9:52 PM
Auburnbill

Joe,

Rajiv's a really good jockey, but has he ever run in the Derby? And whose Power Rankings are you referring to that MI is tops on? And are you saying he's he highest of this year's starters or all time?

15 Apr 2010 9:55 PM
Reesie

Hey Carlos in Cali,

So you're saying those of us who own show dogs are rich ???

LOL

15 Apr 2010 10:04 PM
Tim G

Just WHEN will you be working your Derby prospect Dray?

I'm sure Todd knows his horse better than any of us. Maybe he got a lot out of his last prep?

Maybe he's been doing things that YOU, not being right there, have no information on?

I'm not sure about Eskedereya either, but the sheer vehemence you speak with is disturbing.

Where is the Asylum Intern or whatever he was when we need him to retrieve his patient??

15 Apr 2010 10:09 PM
Ted from LA

Let's stop this show dog talk before the squash players show up talking smack.

15 Apr 2010 10:12 PM
Carlos in Cali

Tim G

Easy there cowboy,nobody was beating up on Lukas.I was just stating the obvious on his steady productive decline since the mid 90's. From what I heard and saw,his operation was 2nd to none,WAS...

Then you must know that he was outperformed by the 'young guns' out West,namely BBaffert who eventually started getting the pick-of-the-litter from the Big Money clientele. It's ok if you still bet on his horses in big races,that's fine. I haven't in a while,usually his top guns would win a race or 2,but those charges haven't been in the winners circle lately.

Sorry,I have nothing on Bob.Didn't have the opportunities to meet him as I did with Lukas the Legend.

Relax!

15 Apr 2010 10:13 PM
Carlos in Cali

Does anyone have info on my 'under the radar horse to hit the board' Ice Box?

Reesie

No.I was just trying to bust Jason's chops.We all know us degenerate gamblers are broke as hell,LOL. In fact,I own 2 Blue Ribbon sired Staffordshire Pit Bulls myself.They were very expensive,but well worth it.

15 Apr 2010 10:30 PM
Greg J.

Tim G.,

     I second that, I would love to see Uptowncharlybrown win this weekend, I wouldn't mind if Chief Counsel came in right behind him...

Joe,

    Dude, What is up with the CAPITALS?  Unlock the Caps button will ya?  While I love Mission Impazible also, Let's try to keep it within reason, 10 lengths and pulling away?  I would take a win by a nose and call that a great victory...

15 Apr 2010 10:30 PM
It aint easy being good

household great post I had the same bet but to make matters worse I had papa clem across the board hard. Thought he was going to place but got bumbed and I got Screwed. I also agree that the exotics will be front runners fading and is the reason I like Rule.

Hey Joe thanks for the same post in caps that you wrote yesterday. SO who do you like again I forgot and he is a push button horse you say huh? Can you talk about the jockey again while your at it!!

THE MESSIAH SAYS: AMERICAN LION BABY!

15 Apr 2010 10:38 PM
Greg J.

Carlos in Cali,

    Broke as hell, Well, After today maybe, lol...Waited to the last minute to cut Uncle Sam his check, UGH!!!  While I love hitting some big wagers, I really hate those W-2G forms from Youbet about one week later, lol...

15 Apr 2010 11:23 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Dray,

I guess a Truenick of A++ and bred on the same lines of Sky Mesa, Mi Sueno, Parading, and Mini Sermon is not good enough for you.

Endorsement is bred very nicely, Truenick of an A and along the same lines as Any Given Saturday, Z humor and Attempted Humor.  

I may be asking too much, but has anyone introduced the word "objectivity" to you?  It is where you respect, or at least acknowledge them, without looking ignorant of the facts.

All you had to say was:

"TJ, you are right, Ice Box does have good breeding (although neither of his connections have ever bred a derby winner), but I think Endorsement has a very good pedigree too given that Funny Cide was bred from Distorted Humor over a Seattle Slew line Damsire."

That was hard... it took a little research, and would take some humility to give someone a compliment, but I think if you try hard enough "Objectivity" could be reached.

16 Apr 2010 12:16 AM
Aluminaut

I also bet Mine That Bird, only it was a pick for a friend--he was real shocked to get the win.

I bet $20 to win on MTB BC Juv. and we all know he finished last.  I did have a Bird Exacta in the KD, and wasn't surprised that Summer Bird came 5th.  MTB, well, it figured cause of my BC bet.  The only horse that owed me and actually paid me back was Opening Verse in BC 1991.

In a previous blog, I think I mentioned that my brother and I spent a while on Derby eve trying to talk another friend out of betting MTB as their main pick...Lucky for us, we were ignored.

Had the Preakness RA MTB exacta, and the Bird Exacta in the Belmont which was messed up by Dunkirk....Oh well.

16 Apr 2010 12:52 AM
jayjay

Draynay, can you post any blogs where you actually picked a winner PRIOR to the race running ??  I'm serious though, you're one of those who likes to criticize people's pick but then you can't even pick a winner.  I mean, what happened to your NP ?  You haven't said one word about him, you can't even find an excuse.  Why don't you post your pick BEFORE the race, for your slow brain, that means, before they run the race. For someone who claims to be smart and a great handicapper, you're 0 for 15 on all your picks for this year's prep races, at least that's what I see on this blog :)

I don't really care that you hate Esky, because after the Derby, you'll hate him even more because he'll ruin all your bets :)  You'll go home with your tail between your legs and wondering how you can redeem your "excellent handicapping prowess" on this blog

16 Apr 2010 3:44 AM
jayjay

Looks like a lot of folks are assuming that 85ina50 will win the Trial ?  Even if he gets in the Derby, off of one week rest...unless he runs as a rabbit for one of the contenders (who wants to make sure Sidney sets an honest pace)

16 Apr 2010 4:08 AM
Rachel

Did you see the photo on BH of Jackson Bend workout? He may be little but the rider looks like he has a stranglehold on him, see the muscles popping on the rider...LOL...

"Not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog"...♥

16 Apr 2010 6:49 AM
Saratoga AJ

Auburnbill:

I like Dublin. In fact, after the Southwest, I thought he could be my #1 Derby horse. He just hasn't done enough since for me to use him right now. I may change my mind when the field and post positions are set. I have met and chatted with Mr. Lucas a couple of times at the Saratoga clubhouse. He's a real gentleman and I do respect any horse he may enter in the Derby.

Handicapping 20 horse Derbies takes some skill...and loads of luck!    

16 Apr 2010 7:04 AM
JOE

I LOVE CAPS.   I WILL TALK ON MAY 2ND AFTER I GET A CHANCE TO WIPE THE TEARS AWAY FROM BEING OVER COME WITH JOY.   IT WILL TAKE A WHOLE 24HRS TO COME DOWN OFF MY CLOUD.  I HAD BETTER PUT ON A PAIR OF PANTS THAT HAVE SIX POCKETS ON K.DERBY DAY.  THE ONLY QUESTION LEFT TO BE ANSWERED ON MAY 2ND IS HOW RAJIV IS GETTING TO THE PREAKNESS , WITH TODD IN THE JET OR IN THE CAB OF THE TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCKING MISSION IMPAZIBLE.   WHEN YOU GET YOUR HANDS ON THE SECOND LEG IT ALWAYS FEELS BETTER UNTIL THE THIRD LEG COMES ALONG AND SOMEHOW YOU HAVE TO GET YOUR HANDS ON THAT ONE BUT WITH ONLY TWO HANDS. IT IS THE RED BUTTON RIGHT BEHIND THE HORSES LEFT EAR IF YOU WERE WONDERING.    ENJOY THE K.DERBY EVERYONE.     JOE

16 Apr 2010 8:21 AM
El Kabong

Greg,

You can cross reference all your w-2g's on line after you log in to make sure you have them all.  Go to account menu, click on my account and scroll down to wagering info, tax documents. It has them all there and it goes back 4 years. You can print them if you need hard copies for your filing or just fill out the info if you file online.

16 Apr 2010 10:50 AM
El Kabong

Greg J

Don't forget to claim your losses, even up to all gains if that's the case.

16 Apr 2010 10:52 AM
Slew

Ranagul: I wasn't trying to be funny.  I paraphrased 85ina50's trainers words.  He was out of Aqueduct Park, running through people's yards, and almost got onto the highway before they caught up to him.  I think it's very sad, and it could have been tragic...certainly nothing to LOL about.  He's a very fast horse who is still very green.  I really don't want to see him in the Derby field..he's not ready yet.

16 Apr 2010 10:55 AM
Greg J.

El Kabong,

     Thanks for the info, Used to the routine by now, lol.  Actually, It was my best year by far, Just hate writing that check!  Yup, Counted my losing wagers into the equation, It helped a little, But never enough :)

16 Apr 2010 11:14 AM
draynay

Why would anyone put money on Mission Impazible ?  Dublin ran by him like he was standing still.  What a waste of money it's like giving money to Jason and expecting to get a winner. It's just not going to happen.

16 Apr 2010 11:16 AM
draynay

jayjay I see you are trying to goat me into giving you free handicapping advice.  You don't have to beat around the bush just say what others on this blog have said, "Help me wise, all knowing Draynay." "Give me the Derby winner!" I like Noble's Promise as a presser in the Derby but it's hard to say much about him right now being that he was injured in the Arkansas Derby and came up with a lung infection.  If he doesn't come into the race 100% I may have to do what I was forced to do last year and go with my second choice.  I guess we will see.  Remember if you want help just ask nicely.

16 Apr 2010 11:25 AM
papillon

Kat--yeah, you did misunderstand me. By straight to the front, I just meant having no one in front of you, not necessarily the horse in the absolute lead (for instance, Rule went straight to the front in the Florida Derby and raced with no one in front of him for approximately 1 1/16 miles, even though for the first mile he was actually in second place).

Going five wide from the 20 post to the stretch call is probably the only way Eskendereya will win the Derby. I've always said he looks like a good horse for the Belmont.

Ted--you're swipe at my profession was completely unnecessary.

Personal injury isn't my area of expertise, but I would never disrespect ambulance chasers. They are often are the only thing that keeps an average person, with ungodly medical bills, arising from circumstances not of their own making, from losing everything they own (along with their health). May you never need one--I sincerely mean that.

Dearest Joe--Could you do me a small favor? Tap that key on your key board, four rows down on the far left. Thanks so much!

16 Apr 2010 11:26 AM
El Kabong

Greg J

Just making sure those dollars are going into our pool and not Uncle Sam's. It's my civic duty as pari-mutuel junky. Congrats on the good year. Are you the one taking Jason lunch money at the big A? :)  (just checking to see if jason has a pulse today.)

16 Apr 2010 11:28 AM
devilhisdue

Lukas won 6 TC races in a row. WHEN did baffert do that? Zitto? Who will be the next to repeat it? I have my own knocks on Lucas like Serena's Song whom he messed up with. Union City? Lucas has not had the number of starters as in the past. It is harder to win the Derby.  Ho many of you still use dosage???

16 Apr 2010 11:38 AM
RiverCitySmitty

JOE, CAPS ARE LIKE YELLING.  YELLING REMINDS ME TOO MUCH OF MY EX.  THEREFORE, I`VE QUIT READING YOUR POSTS. HAVE A NICE DAY.

16 Apr 2010 11:46 AM
datflippinrabbit

Endorsement must be running in another race,not a single word from anyone ha!! now that's a horse coming in with a good chance.  

16 Apr 2010 11:46 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

El Kabong

  I told the IRS I never lose. They said you can claim the losses against your wins. I said, "Oh yeah, I lost a ton of money last year." They follow me to the track now to see if I go around picking up losing tickets. They didn't like it that I got all of those W-2 forms, then claimed I broke even. Well if they didn't like it they shouldn't have told me the rules. They could of had better business lunches.

16 Apr 2010 12:01 PM
Jason Shandler

Im here El Kabong. Just working hard to try to find you guys the Derby winner :)

16 Apr 2010 12:02 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

     How about a contest this year for the Derby?, Just a Idea...

Draynay,

     I will make a wager with you that Mission Impazible will finish ahead of Endorsement!, I don't even need to see post positions or works leading up to the Derby to make that call, Deal?

16 Apr 2010 12:26 PM
Householder

I think singling the Derby winner will be tough work.  One either thinks that Esky will run away with it or he won't.  As a better who wants to win a lot of money I'm looking at the latter.  Second choice may be 9-2, third choice 8-1, and everything else double digits.  Even with Esky and Lookin in a superfecta box things look pretty rosy.  What's the most logical to finish at least 4th?  Dublin? Conveyance? Rule?  American Lion?  Sidney's Candy?  These will all be double digit odds.  

16 Apr 2010 12:28 PM
Householder

Really, 85 was running around in people's yards?  Imagine looking out your front window and seeing a 1,200 pound thoroughbred eating you Bermuda grass.  I remember one year, Hollywood Park had Fourth of July fireworks at night.  I think Beseya got lose and was running around the parking lot in and out of cars.

16 Apr 2010 12:31 PM
Tim G

Dang, Householder, I'd have like to have seen that. A horse getting in and out of cars.(JK)

Actually it can be really tragic, to human and horse. I've seen and heard of it happening on the track, kicking the back out of a trailer on the road, one getting loose out in the north forty, in the paddock and in the barn area. None of them are good scenarios.

Jason, you're better off grabbing a bite for lunch. No one will listen to you anyway.LOL.

Go to your favorite joint in Lexington, see who they're betting??

16 Apr 2010 12:52 PM
Carlos in Cali

Greg J

Yeah,I know what you mean.After my big BC weekend I was expecting a kick to the head. I love my accountant.  :}

Off topic:

Jason or anyone else. After next weeks BC Personnel meeting,do you think they'll name Santa Anita as the permanent host-site? With Churchill getting in on the action every now and then. I say they do.

16 Apr 2010 1:18 PM
draynay

Lol Greg, you have to be kidding me? I will take Endorsement over Mission all day !  I will send Jason my share to hold until I win ! Mission Impazible ? LOL...

16 Apr 2010 1:19 PM
El Kabong

Jason,

Get us some backside dirt, and I don't mean the "tuttsi fruitsi ice-a-cream" crap either. We need the goods. scrapes, sneezes, coughs, foot bruises....... you get my point. Put a man on it, Harpo, Chico, Hackenbush, I don't care who.....just dig sumptin up. The edge is all we need to make this thing really sing.

16 Apr 2010 1:30 PM
Jason Shandler

Carlos: I dont think they will name a permanent site. I think, and hope, they will do a rotating schedule with about four of five main tracks--Santa Anita, Churchill, Belmont, and may a Woodbine or Arlington. A shame they cant hold it at Gulfstream anymore since they ruined it with casinos.

El Kabong: I will be on the backside beginning next Tuesday morning. I will get you the scoop.

16 Apr 2010 1:38 PM
Tim G

"When you're as smart as me sometimes you think you're all alone. Dealing with people of average IQ is at times a difficult thing for me to do but I realize many of you need me or how would you ever pick a winner.

draynay 14 Apr 2010 11:11 PM"

You better ask for a refund from the testing agency who gave you the IQ test Dray.

"jayjay I see you are trying to 'GOAT' (sic) me into giving you free handicapping advice. You don't have to beat around the bush just say what others on this blog have said, "Help me wise, all knowing Draynay." "Give me the Derby winner!" I like Noble's Promise as a presser in the Derby but it's hard to say much about him right now being that he was injured in the Arkansas Derby and came up with a lung infection. If he doesn't come into the race 100% I may have to do what I was forced to do last year and go with my second choice. I guess we will see. Remember if you want help just ask nicely.

draynay 16 Apr 2010 11:25 AM "

It's GOAD genius.  Although you could easily be the GOAT!

By the way who was your second choice. I lost track after choice # 133.  If Eskendereya is chalk, that's who you'll bet, I have firsthand info that you always bet the favorite. You just won't admit to it.

Heard Keeneland is still trying to recover from your chalk bets of $5 from opening day. All knowing? Sure, maybe know it all.

16 Apr 2010 1:41 PM
RiverCitySmitty

No way Jose will SA get the BC as a permanent site.  Maybe if their goal is to get all the non-poly horses to stay home, but I doubt it.

16 Apr 2010 1:47 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Greg J.

I agree we should do a contest... My suggestion would be that everyone put in their top 5 horses to box for the derby with a tie breaker being how much did Draynay lose!

16 Apr 2010 1:48 PM
devilhisdue

I say send it back to Lone Star. it was a great time. Seeing the Zapper run was a treat. Churchill pays best at BC time. I think they should close Santa Anita or go back to dirt. I will never go back there again.They could give it to Churchill all the time fine by me.

16 Apr 2010 1:49 PM
Slew

Aaah, Householder...It might have been easier if he did stop to graze.  Maybe if they had Ky Blue grass..he would have.  And yes, Tim G..I've been driving behind a horse trailer where the horse was going nuts....I managed to stop the hauler so they could re-secure the horse.  Once a horse freaks out, there is no telling where he will end up.  It is a very scary situation.

16 Apr 2010 1:50 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Jason, try to throw us a bone regarding the Oaks.  There isn`t much being written about the race.  Do they use an earnings list as well?  I think there`s a 14 limit in the Oaks.  Thanks.

16 Apr 2010 1:50 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Hey Jason make sure you check out American Lions workout when your at churchill and tell me how great he looks visually! Thanks! :-)

16 Apr 2010 1:58 PM
Greg J.

Draynay,

    No need to send Jason my money, Straight up, If they both start in the Derby, $50 on the line, I will take Mission Impazible and you have Endorsement, Who ever finishes ahead of the other wins the wager, Deal?  I will e-mail you my address, or vice versa, After the race...

16 Apr 2010 1:59 PM
Mike Relva

JAYJAY

Think you have it wrong regarding Esky. Others' are going home with"their tails between their legs" after he loses the Derby!

16 Apr 2010 2:13 PM
Carlos in Cali

I hear ya' Jason.I read somewhere(LA Times?),where Greg Aiello was pretty stoked about the idea of having Oak Tree @ Santa Anita host the BC the majority of the time.Reason being: That's the ONLY place where they can actually make some money and the weather is always perfect.He also stated it doesn't matter if the track keeps it's synthetic surface or switched to dirt and that the venue is perfectly constructed for the large crowds they usually get.Plus,it's situated ideally near the 3-4 local airports and as you know,the massive LA Metropolitan area.

I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route.We'll see.

16 Apr 2010 3:35 PM
Householder

The works are starting so the buzz should begin.  As I have said before a lot of dirt horses (e.g., Dublin) hate that track.  If they have started over the 3 synthetics in CA it does not seem to bother then as much (e.g., POTN).  I know Sidney's Candy ran at Del Mar and Santa Anita...not sure about Hollywood.  

16 Apr 2010 4:02 PM
CV

Rachel,

I agree about Jackson Bend. He's such a game little guy and I have a soft spot for him since he's from Florida. His mouth is open that picture and he looks like he's just tugging the exercise rider out of the saddle because he wants to run.

I don't know if he's cut out for the Derby distance but I'd love to see him do well in the Preakness, if he runs there.

16 Apr 2010 5:19 PM
BigRedForever

I CANNOT believe Ken Ramsey is going to run Pleasant Prince in the Derby Trail to gain graded earnings for the Derby. I understand Fever is one thing, but the horses best interests are NOT being considered. No horse since Tim Tam in '58 has won both, but RAMSEY seemes more interested in just being there at this point in his life.  By his own words, he says HE's getting long in the tooth AND that THIS is a SPECIAL horse.  SHUT UP!!  If he was special, he would have earnings in the TOP THREE positions. Those are where the SPECIAL horses live. I call 'em like I see them.  Signed...a fellow thoroughbred horse owner.

16 Apr 2010 5:55 PM
Ted from LA

Take it easy, papillon.  It was just a set-up for my Sonny Bono comment.  I like most lawyers I know and agree they often help people in desperate situations.

Speaking of desperate situations, how do you pick a winner in this Derby without going with the favorite?  I have to beat him.  I just don't know who to Endorse yet.  JOE, I THINK YOU'RE STARTING TO BOTHER A FEW PEOPLE ON THIS BLOG.  I AM NOT SURE WHY, BUT I HAVE a theory.

16 Apr 2010 6:19 PM
draynay

Mr. Ramsey I know you want to get into the Derby who doesn't.  But it matters how you get there!  You can run PP from now until the cows come home and the fact is he doesn't belong.  Besides, haven't you run the horse enough?  Now you want to run him at 85ina50 and then expect to have ANYTHING left for the Derby? 85 can run a 108 in his sleep and trot home in 25.  Why not get him ready for the Preakness?  Why get him whipped by 85 ?  If your horse was good enough you would have had him in position by now.  Right?

16 Apr 2010 7:13 PM
Kat

Ahhh, straight to the front and no one in front of you is not quite the same in a horse race.  If it was, there would be a lot more debates about who won.  Thanks for clearing that up. . .

16 Apr 2010 8:17 PM
Mike Relva

BIG RED FOREVER

I totally agree! If PP doesn't have the earnings by now then why push the envelope? No way the horse has anything left by Derby day. This is an EXAMPLE of what I can't stand,an owner/connections that will bypass the horses' best interest in order to satisfy their own goals!

16 Apr 2010 8:35 PM
tcc

Jason:

The Coolmore Lexington Stakes looks like a great betting race, there could be some big odds in this race.

16 Apr 2010 9:16 PM
JOE

I just had to email one last time to show you that some people have a gift.  On 4/17/10 race ten at Charles Town look for Wicked B Havior and Joe Bravo if it is a fast track to win it with Rajiv and Tizway right behind him for place or if it is wet and sloppy it will be for Mr. Perez and Researcher to win it.   Until Saturday.   JOE

16 Apr 2010 9:54 PM
Citation

Mike Relva, how are they bypassing the horse's best interests? Claimers run once a week sometimes, horses from history used to do it all the time. Are horses really that fragile that running twice in two weeks will kill them? I don't mean to say that they should bypass the horse's best interests; if your horse is sore or hurt, you should definately rest him and not run him. But horses are animals, not glass figures, and I see no reason why they can't run back in a week after a race. They do it in Australia all the time, and their horses have similar pedigrees to ours, so why does everyone act like their horse will fall apart if he runs more than once per month? I don't mean any malice to you, I'm just expressing my opinion. On a different note, I love Sidney's Candy for the Derby.

16 Apr 2010 9:58 PM
PomDeTerre

rule and conveyance are milers- out.

dublin and super saver should be given nooses-out.

sidney's candy, if for no other reason, the name isn't worthy of a derby winner and he has to transition surfaces-out.

if lucky draws anywhere near the rail-out.

85ina50- he's already over the rail at the hot dog stand-out.

with so much early speed, some of these front runners will fry.

race sets up well for a stalker or closer- endorsement, esky, awesome act and noble-if he goes- r my picks.

that being said, i'm also a firm beiever that a 20 horse field is too unpredictable and dangerous.  may sound like a prude, but cut the field back to 14; no more auxiliary gate.

16 Apr 2010 10:21 PM
Matthew W

AMERICAN LION: Stay away from Dray--nay!

AMERICAN LION: Listen what I say--hey!

....'Am leaning towards 'Lion, and Sidney, as my duel keys on top! Just think Sydney's a "can't toss", based on his races thus far this year: simply the best! As far as the Tiznow colt, draw a line in his first two races this year, in which he was too amped up at the gate, and you can see an improving sort--who did well at two--with Derby Breeding! Of corse I'll throw in the big two--but...twenty horse field....I can dream a bit! Also like Super Saver, Dublin, Endorsement, Stately Victor underneath, but I may just play American Lion and Sydney's Candy, as they are the two horses that intrigue me the most-- I think they have both quality as well as value...

16 Apr 2010 10:24 PM
Matthew W

Citation--I believe "you" did it, during your 19 for 20 three year old season, in which you defeated the older horse champ in Feb(!!), before the Triple Crown and everything else, in 1948....

16 Apr 2010 10:27 PM
Tired and tabbed

I bet 50 bucks eskendrya is hurt and does not run if he runs he gets hurt this is from a reliable source bad ankle sorry Todd

16 Apr 2010 10:28 PM
Mike Relva

CITATION

I like SC ALSO AND NP IF HE RUNS. Look if horses' aren't fragile compared to yrs ago then why do we see so many injuries and breakdowns? Also,look at how many each year is pulled from the Derby lineup,especially last year.

16 Apr 2010 10:35 PM
Mike Relva

GREG J

Have you heard anything new regarding High CT. Drama???

16 Apr 2010 10:36 PM
draynay

You have a deal Greg.  I love easy money.

16 Apr 2010 11:01 PM
Footlick

Citation- actually I believe the Australian thoroughbred is somewhat stouter than ours- at least that's what they claim.

16 Apr 2010 11:04 PM
Greg J.

Citation,

    "Are horses really that fragile that running twice in two weeks will kill them?"  FYI, The two races are exacty ONE week apart, The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial is on April 24th and the Derby is May 1st. That would be three races, Two grade ones and a Grade three, In three weeks?  A hell of a way to ruin a young promising colt, IMHO...

16 Apr 2010 11:19 PM
Greg J.

Yes Dray, Very easy money!  Good Luck...

16 Apr 2010 11:22 PM
Ted from LA

I believe Eskendereya will not be in the starting gate on May 1.  Even if he is, it will be a Robby Oaks-Derby double.  I will not repeat this, and hope you all ignore or forget it.  Dray, Rule is looking FANTASTIC (hey Joe, I did that for YOU).  Go to the bank, take out all your money, and bet him with both hands and feet.  Rule.

16 Apr 2010 11:25 PM
Matthew W

The "breeding for speed" idea was sound---but it caused unsoundness in the breed--now, with muscle enducers...I mean to say horses, thoroughbreds to be exact, have gone from lean/leggy--to looking like longer versions of quarter horses...you can see the dichotomy: A horse like Tiznow offers a stamina link to the past--while the Storm Cat male-line, Giants Causeway and SO MANY others-- offers winning right now in so many ways--and that's speed breeding....

16 Apr 2010 11:33 PM
Ted from LA

Greg J,

You can't go against me.  It will cost you.  DO NOT bet against Endorsement.  

16 Apr 2010 11:46 PM
ElusiveQuality

I have liked Endorsement for months, he's my top pick, followed by Esky, Awesome Act, Lucky and Sid. I like to play around with the .10 supers in big fields like the Derby so i'll have to mix those 5 up with Mission Impaz, Line of David, Dublin,Ice box and Noble if he runs.

16 Apr 2010 11:53 PM
Tim G

Yes Slew, have a friend of a friend, horse kicked the backend out of a two horse trailer went running down the highway.

Having been around hundreds of horses, on the track, farm and ranch I've seen them get into all kinds of fixes. When they get loose on the track it's super scary. Glad to see they're trying to do it right at CD this year.

Of course those of us who know him, know what a life altering event the loose horse caused Jeff.

Greg, I wouldn't do it but maybe Ken's horse is a throwback?

He's got Dean's Kitten to ease the fever, maybe he sees something in PP that we aren't privvy to?

16 Apr 2010 11:54 PM
Citation

Matthew W, yes "I" did, and I also beat the last year's Preakness winner and the next year's champion sprinter in the same month. Footlick, perhaps, although all the ones I've seen are bred on similar lines to ours. Mike Relva, I like Noble's Promise too, and as for the breakdowns, I would assume that wider coverage of more horses would give the appearance of more breakdowns, though I may be wrong. Greg J, I know that the Derby is a week after the Trial, I just wasn't sure how to refer to running in both of them. Cannonball won the King Cugat Stakes, and turned around in five days to finish third in the Juvenile Turf, and he is still just as ever, so it didn't ruin him, though he was two when he did this.

17 Apr 2010 12:29 AM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

Calm down Bro, you still have two more weeks on these blogs before your self-imposed exile begins for opposing a Pletcher derby victory. I'm prepared to let you off the hook if you just post 'Go Todd Go' ...that will be penance enough before May 1, 2010.  I notice that you are wishing for Esky to somehow be scratched but even that wouldn't save you because the Todd Squad is deep and dangerous ...going to be very mean on Derby day.  Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Rule and Discretely Mine are coming to ask the rest of the field some very tough questions my friend.  And if Interactif signals that he wants to join the fray at Churchill Downs, he is very capable of stealing everybody's thunder (just remember how the winning post intervened to rescue Sidney's Candy from being gobbled up in the San Felipe). Enjoy your packing Mike.

17 Apr 2010 1:02 AM
draynay

Rule ? American Lion ? Be serious you can toss both of these along with Misson Impazible.

17 Apr 2010 7:06 AM
Gary Lynn

So much for those Thompson ratings  for an off track, El Kabong. His Equibase sire/dam combined mud/win percentage had him third best in the field. His Eq. rating for the distance was sixth best.  

17 Apr 2010 9:38 AM
sodapopkid

Look for a longshot to upset the derby favorites..............

17 Apr 2010 10:17 AM
Ted from LA

When and where was Eskendereya's last work?

17 Apr 2010 10:22 AM
TJLuvsTizs

I am telling you, play the winners of their last prep for the derby.

Sidneys Candy, American Lion, Endorsement, Esky, Ice Box.

It is the year for the winners!

17 Apr 2010 11:11 AM
Karen in Texas

Someone above said that Eskendereya was injured (bad ankle?), but apparently he breezed today at Palm Meadows. What, specifically, is the supposed diagnosis for the ankle?

17 Apr 2010 12:04 PM
LAZMANNICK

I tend to agree with Citation.  I don't get all the whining about Ramsey deciding to run Noble's Promise in the Derby Trial and then coming back for the Derby.....Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the horse's best interests (even to the point that I think the Triple Crown races should be run an additional week apart), but what is the difference between running a horse in a relatively easy 1-Mile event and coming back one week later and going in what is argueably the world's toughest race at 1-1/4M, or running a horse in the world's toughest race at 1-1/4M and then coming back 2-weeks later and running 1-3/16M.  It seems to me that going from easy to hard is a lot different than going from hard to hard.  If you look back at many of the PP's of horses back in the day which competed in all three legs of the Triple Crown, you will see that many of them ran an additional race somewhere in between the three races and most of them worked more times leading up to and during the Triple Crown races than the horse we see today. This is all a  product of breeding so if we're going to change the breeding objectives then why not legislate the time between a horse's races.

17 Apr 2010 12:27 PM
longwaytomay

Ted from La,

 His last work was this morning in Florida. His next will be in Louisville. All you rumormongers should stop with your BS that Esky is hurt and won't be in gate May 1. None of you have any credible information to make such statements.

17 Apr 2010 12:58 PM
JOE

4/17/10 ==== Charles Town race #10  If Wicked B Havior and Tizway do not run because they are on the also eligible list then it will be Redding Colliery by 10 lengths if dry and Researcher if it is wet and muddy.  Napravniks big day and a track record wow wow wow.   Joe  

17 Apr 2010 2:06 PM
jayjay

I'm liking IceBox more and more as my longshot, not sure how he'll handle CD and the big field though but if anyone has the experience to prepare a horse, Zito is one of the best.

I still think it will be either L@L or Esky on top but I'm feeling more and more comfortable about putting a lot more win money on Ice Box...it's just a hunch I'm getting the closer the derby gets.  I'll probably put 200 to win on him.

I don't have to worry about the draw with him as he comes from the clouds anyway.  I envision him running like Arazi, coming from way back on the 2nd turn and inhaling the whole field with L@L in pursuit :)

17 Apr 2010 2:13 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

I DON'T want Esky scratched. Thanks for stating you would"let me off the hook",but unlike some on this blog,I believe that "a deal is a deal". I'll take my chances.

17 Apr 2010 3:32 PM
PomDeTerre

Ted- Esky's last "work"was the Wood at A 2 weeks ago.  9 lengths on a hand ride.

17 Apr 2010 4:02 PM
Ted from LA

Nevermind. I see Esky worked slowly today.  He's falling right into my plan for him.  Wait until he's running 10th down the back stretch and getting dirt in his face.  He'll fold like the Chicago Cubs in a pennant race.  Jason, according to the guy from Egypt who wrote on here how to pronounce his name, you and your cronies on that handicapping show were all mispronouncing it.  After May 1 it will not matter.  Go Cubs Go.  

17 Apr 2010 4:55 PM
-Keelerman

My picks for the Lexington Stakes. . .

1: Call Shot

2: Uptowncharlybrown

3: Connemara

But I will be pulling for Uptowncharlybrown.

-Keelerman

17 Apr 2010 5:24 PM
-Keelerman

Wow! Exhi? I didn't see that coming. I thought that he had a chance, but I didn't see him going wire-to-wire. Uptowncharlybrown ran well enough, but I'm afraid that it was too little too late. But congratulations to Exhi and his connections!

-Keelerman

17 Apr 2010 6:07 PM
draynay

Esky ran a 102.25 ? Mr. Pletcher you must be running scared now.  That is a very average work.  As a matter of fact I don't know of any Derby champion in the last 10 years that had a work that slow 14 days before the Derby.  That work gives me no reason to believe he can handle the pace he will see in the Derby.  I think you better get you other horses ready and pray.

17 Apr 2010 6:26 PM
draynay

Well a few more works are in and it is clear that the most talented horse ready to win is not Esky but is Devil May Care.  Devil ran a 101 a full 6 lengths faster then Esky.  If that doesn't tell you anything it should.  Horses getting ready for the Derby simply do not run that slow.  The horse on the RISE is the Devil. Slow works do not produce Derby winners. Mr. Pletcher it seems your going to have to settle with the Oaks winner only.

17 Apr 2010 8:27 PM
longwaytomay

Draynay,

 If you were the expert you claim to be then you would have noted that Esky worked that slow two weeks before the Wood. I wish people actually listened to you so I could get better odds on Esky.

 For all you other experts saying he has a bad ankle, you are full of it. You are basing your statements on the fact that Esky wore front raps in the Wood. Why don't you do a little research and find out that several horses came in with burned heels in the first three races at the Big A the day of the Wood. Pletcher and several other trainers put front wraps on all their other horses for the rest of the races that day.

17 Apr 2010 8:56 PM
tcc

LAZMANNICK:

I tend to agree with Citation.  I don't get all the whining about Ramsey deciding to run Noble's Promise in the Derby Trial and then coming back for the Derby.....

Actualy Laz., Ramsey's horse for the Derby Trial is Pleasant Prince, not Noble's Promise.

Jason: there was some nice odds in the Lexington, as I suspected there would be.

17 Apr 2010 9:14 PM
draynay

longwaytomay you must be new at the whole Derby thing.  Winners of the Derby do not work that slow 14 days before the big race.  The Wood is not the Derby.  Esky based on his work is not 100% and not working at Churchill is not helping him either. If works mean nothing step up and bet your money but 102+ are you kidding me ?  Sorry that is not the workout of a Derby winner.

17 Apr 2010 9:27 PM
Mike Relva

LAZMANNICK

I'm on my way tomorrow to visit Cigar on his b. day. Also,  Monday visiting Old Friends and on to see Dancing In My Dreams. I'll email you after returning.

17 Apr 2010 9:30 PM
Tim G

If he would have worked a bullet, it would have been that he used himself up before the Derby or that he's speed only.

We've heard your take on works and guess what? You are NOT a trainer, you are NOT a horseman and you have NO idea what Todd wants the horse to do at this point.

Like has been said before, you can't win the Derby if you don't have a horse in it. Guess what you don't have a horse in it.....

Addressing him as though he's reading your nonsense?  Please, most of these guys stop reading anything quite a ways out, too many people second guessing them, too many armchair trainers.

Whatever the horse does in the Derby, Todd has to live with it and he doesn't seem to be veering too much from his plan.

17 Apr 2010 10:15 PM
Saratoga AJ

Actually, Eskendereya worked 102 flat, 4th fastest of 14 that worked the distance at Palm Meadows today. Pletcher had 3 other Derby horses work also yesterday....Discreetly Mine 1:01.95, 3/14, Mission Impazible 1:02.25, 7/14 and Rule 1:02.65, 8/14.

Useful works.

17 Apr 2010 10:45 PM
PomDeTerre

You're right, of course, draynay.  ANY race fan KNOWS that a trainer wants to take a top quality horse and have him blow his brains out on a breeze, especially 2 weeks after winning a G1 and two weeks before the Derby.  Sound judgement.  If my trainer worked my horses in that manner, he'd be lookin for a new client, as they'd be outta his shedrow faster than 102.25.

17 Apr 2010 10:54 PM
Greg J.

Dray,

    I honestly don't know why I am responding to your comment regarding Eskendereya's work, But I am, lol.  Just to show how much your comment makes NO sense, I will offer you Eskendereya's work from today, and another work-out two weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby from another one of your favorite...

Eskendereya's work:

Breezing five furlongs in 1:02.25, posting splits of :13, :25, and :37 2/5, galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 2/5...

"Mysterious" work:

Breezing 5 furlongs in 1:02, posted splits of :13, :25 2/5, :37 2/5, and :49 4/5. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:15 1/5...

You ask who this colt was that had almost the exact work two weeks prior to their Derby run?  It was The 2009 Kentucky Derby Winner, Mine that Bird, Your favorite Dray!  So there goes another one of your theories Dray, Too funny...

17 Apr 2010 11:11 PM
captainkool16

Elusive Quality,

Sorry no .10 supers in the derby only 1.00. That is the day they want the big bets.

17 Apr 2010 11:14 PM
LAZMANNICK

tcc

You got me on that one.  Anyway, I don't really agree with what the Ramsey's are doing just like I don't agree with the Triple Crown races being run so close together.  I also believe that the Ramsey's will do what's right with the horse.  LOL

17 Apr 2010 11:29 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike Relva

Some guys get to have all the fun.  Cali one week and then visiting Cigar and Old Friends the next.  Hope you have a good one and look forward to hearing from you.  LOL

17 Apr 2010 11:31 PM
tcc

I am telling you, play the winners of their last prep for the derby.

Sidneys Candy, American Lion, Endorsement, Esky, Ice Box.

It is the year for the winners!

TJLuvsTizs 17 Apr 2010 11:11 AM

Here's some more horse's that also won thier last prep for the Derby,

Dean's Kitten

Line Of David

Mission Impazible

Stately Victor

17 Apr 2010 11:39 PM
draynay

Tim again it appears you just don't know much.  Take a look at the workouts from recent Derby winners and catch up a bit.  By the way it's 2010 in case you didn't know.  Esky works for the first time since the Wood and he throws out a dud at 102 and Mr. Pletcher says the track was a second slow? Nope sorry the track was fast and Devil May Care ran much faster.  Did you see the time for Esky for 6 furlongs? SLOW !  Now he is going to run him one more time at Churchill and run him easy ?  Sorry but this is not the path to a Derby win and I understand why he is 0 for 24.

17 Apr 2010 11:45 PM
Matthew W

Esky is right on target--I'll try to beat him but will use him on top for exacta "savers"--Sydney's Candy and American Lion are my two guys as i think, with twenty horses, it's up to who gets the best trip--Sydney is the fastest/Lion has the breeding for the final furlong/and just won at 1 1/8 over a pretty good NY Bred...

18 Apr 2010 12:43 AM
TJLuvsTizs

Dray,

There were only 2 works at Palm Meadows that were faster than Discreetly Mine's 1:01.95, as you pointed out Devil May Care and an unraced Colt Recur.  Please tell me you think Recur is better than Esky because he worked out faster!

All reports show that it was extremely windy and the fact that 7 Graded Stakes horses ran 1:01.95 or slower, is all you need to know about how slow the track was today.

Esky will work at Churchill in the :59 range and will be plenty fit for the derby.  He doesn't need to be 1 length behind the pacesetter to win the derby.  He will run his same pace (1:12 ish) sitting anywhere from 7-13 through the first 3/4 mile, start moving up and be in contention battling 2 or three of the pacesetters, Lookin at Lucky, and one closer when they hit the stretch and will be able to hold his own and make a good showing.  All the while your favorite NP is stuck in 13th and not passing anyone through the wire.

18 Apr 2010 12:53 AM
tcc

Jason:

Drosselmeyer  is now listed as a likely starter for the Derby Trial.

18 Apr 2010 2:06 AM
tcc

Jason:

Caracortado is scheduled to arrive from California on Monday--and Churchill Downs says connections plan enter him in the one-mile, Grade III Derby Trial on April 24--and a possible run back in the Kentucky Derby a week later.

18 Apr 2010 2:09 AM
jayjay

It just goes to show that Dragnay doesn't really know handicapping, he's now picked his 1,294th derby winner for this years KD.  I mean, come on, you can't decide because your handicapping skills are based on ... on....NOTHING, you don't have ANY handicapping skills.  You haven't picked ANY winner of any preps this year LOL.

By the way, Endorsement worked 1:01 and 3/5ths most recently and before that a sizzling 1:27 for 7 furlongs,  I guess you're jumping off the bandwagon AGAIN since slow works don't win the Derby ??  Also, L@L worked 1:14 for 6F...I guess your next comment is L@L won't win the Derby and jump off his bandwagon too ??  You are really quickly running out of horses to pick LOL.

18 Apr 2010 2:36 AM
jayjay

The one thing unknown right now is weather...if it rains on KD day, you can pretty much disregard all these handicapping prior to the race and will have to really watch the paddock to see how the horses are doing.  Also, need to watch prior races to the KD to see which part of the track is holding, if it's wet fast, then I think we might see a wire to wire winner, if sloppy, then I'd probably look for the stalkers/closers and a long shot!

18 Apr 2010 3:02 AM
longwaytomay

Draynay,

 No, I am not new to the Derby. Been betting it for over thirty years. Pletcher has already said that Esky ships to Louisville this week (Tuesday) and will have a serious work on Sat. or Sun. Look for 5 in a about a minute or less. Keep looking for reasons not to bet this horse, you can find something to lead you away from every horse in the field if you look hard enough. If Eskendereya doesn't get stuck down on the rail he will be right there when they turn for home. The other horse you hate (Sydney) is my second best bet. The fact you hate both makes me feel pretty good about my chances. I have already stated that I will post my bets BEFORE the race and I fully expect that you won't.

18 Apr 2010 7:25 AM
draynay

Actually Saratoga Esky worked 10 lengths slower then Devil May Care at 6 furlongs.  You can find the correct times here.

www.drf.com/.../112252.html

18 Apr 2010 8:13 AM
RiverCitySmitty

I wouldn`t put a good spin or a bad spin on Pletcher`s horses and their works @ Palm Meadows.  Likely just stretching their legs before going to Louisville and quite useful.

Was the Derby Trial called the Stepping Stone waaay back when?  I seem to recall a 7f race the Tuesday before the Derby that several used back when horses could run more than 4 or 5 times a year.  Anyone remember that race???  Thanks.

Still not much Oaks talk on here.  I like Blind Luck, but many were impressed with Devil May Care and her romp @ GP.  Any word on other possibles?  Jody Slew?  Biofuel?  

18 Apr 2010 8:20 AM
PomDeTerre

Tim- THANK YOU; I couldn't agree with you more! Unless draynay has "inside info" straight from the horse's (or trainer's) mouth, he has no clue as to the strategy behind Esky's breeze. If a horse takes a bullet on a hand ride, fine. My trainer never breezes for  bullets, & I respect the hell outta him and what he's done w/ my horses..  Why leave it all on the track BEFORE the race?  Some people just gotta believe that they're the "expert" tho.  Esky is my 2nd choice, but now I'm almost hoping he wins just to shut a certain person up.

18 Apr 2010 9:15 AM
PomDeTerre

draynay- your comment to longwaytomay is nothing short of condescending, rude and arrogant.  How many derbies have YOU won?

18 Apr 2010 9:18 AM
longwaytomay

PomDe Terre,

 No worry, I would expect nothing more from Draynay. He is a rude, condescending and arrogant poster. He is who he is.

All,

 Who is gonna be this years wise guy horse? My vote goes to Endorsement. Any thoughts?

18 Apr 2010 9:55 AM
Slew

River City..I'm liking Quiet Temper and Jody Slew.  My kid tried the Hurricane Saisson..liked it better than Abita.

Backtalk had a blow-out work before the Illinois Derby...and it did him more harm then good...being a distant 3rd.  I don't think any trainer wants that kind of work.  Amoss didn't.  Exhi's win may give him just enough to leapfrog Setsuko for the AE list.  Too bad.  At this point, the only horses I see making 12f are Stately Victor and Endorsement.  The rest are just traffic....and, yes, I am thinking forward to the Belmont.  (Fingers still crossed.)

18 Apr 2010 10:55 AM
The Rock

If Setsuko gets in, that's the wise guy horse.

18 Apr 2010 11:08 AM
longwaytomay

Sorry, I meant to say that I expect nothing less from Draynay. I think you knew what I meant.

Draynay,

 Post your bets BEFORE the Derby or all your BS is just BS.

18 Apr 2010 11:08 AM
The Rock

Draynay,

First its who wins what preps, and now its like hey, let's throw out that method and go with who has the fastest work? Wow, how could you not have loved Backtalk in the Illinois Derby after his 1:09 flat 6f work prior to that race......

18 Apr 2010 11:20 AM
Greg J.

R.I.P. Tiz Chrome...

Horrible news this morning! My Condolences to all involved with Tiz Chrome, Too Sad...

18 Apr 2010 11:25 AM
Tim G

Dray, thanks for the compliment!

You saying I don't know much about racing is the ultimate and one of the proudest moments of my life!

If you would have agreed with me, or realized that you really know nothing yourself? I'd have been forced to commit Harakiri. So as it stands, a slam from you who knows NOTHING, is the ultimate compliment.

Guess when a person actually OWNS race horses, HAS a trainer, has WON stakes races, has been AROUND the race track for most of their life? THOSE are the people who know NOTHING about race horses.

Yes Dray once again you're spot on.

Guess it's 'club' managers who are much more aware of what a trainer wants to do with his horses.

I know Todd has been around the track since he was a tiny kid, worked for Jake, worked for Wayne during college, graduated from the U of Arizona's racing program and worked for the HOF trainer with the most Derby wins of any living trainer for around a decade after college. It's just TOO bad we can't learn from all knowing folks like you

The Derby may be the end all and be all to you (although I cannot imagine why). But even though it's a dream race for anyone in racing to win? Todd nor anyone else is going to jump off a cliff or quit the game if they don't win it.

IF you think you're having some bizarre influence on anyone in the game to take horses away from Todd? It's quite the opposite I assure you.

Most are ignoring you and the few who do unfortunately read your crap? Well we're considering seeing if Todd has a stall or two available for a couple of horses.

 

18 Apr 2010 11:28 AM
JOE

All this talk about bad ankles and bad this and bad that is giving me a headache.   If a trainer or owner wants a tail wrapped up it does not mean that the horse has a bad tale and so on.   You can bet that every horse that gets in the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby is the best shape they can be in after what happened a couple of years ago or else they would not be there to race.   There are a lot of people watching and listening and takes notes about this and taking pictures of that and keeping a close eye on owners, trainers and jockeys.   All horsemen and woman alike know that when the triple crown starts in may anybody that is involved with horses, owns horses,trains horses or rides horses would love to have the chance to own, train, or ride a horse in the Kentucky Derby.  No one is ever going to use a buzzer in the Kentucky Derby or the triple crown races or they would be banned for life from horse racing and you can count on you and your name being mud for the rest of your life.  I'm sorry and I will never do it again does not work in horse racing.   You can ask any person that is involved or not involved with horses what is the most exciting two minutes in sports ever and they will know the answer.   You ask any jockey and they will tell you that it is there dream to race in the Kentucky Derby.   The Kentucky Derby is bigger then the Super Bowl and if I had a chance to fly to the moon in the shuttle or around the United States in a f16 or ride a horse in the Kentucky Derby knowing that you have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby what do you think I would do or anyone else would choose to do.   So the bad ankles,bad ears,bad neck, bad hair,bad eye,bad nose stop with it and thank god that we can enjoy and have fun to even have the Kentucky Derby in the United States and be a part of it in our own litte way.     Joe

18 Apr 2010 11:30 AM
thomas

How long will it take for ESKY to be sold to Jess Jackson??

18 Apr 2010 11:33 AM
Ted from LA

longwaytomay,

I agree that it will be Endorsement.  My question (and my fear) is how many times in the past 20 years has the wiseguy horse won?  I am worried about his foundation, but I really like that horse.

18 Apr 2010 11:40 AM
JOE

If you come to Saratoga New York this summer to see the Travers Stakes in August you are going to have a 99.9% chance to see the Kentucky Derby winner up front and so close that you could reach out and touch him.   All Bloodhorse fans please take notice of the name that will be on the side of the saddle cloth that everyone is cheering for Mission Impazible.   You will say to yourself when you are reading it that Joe guy was right after all and I did not listen to him.            Joe

18 Apr 2010 11:43 AM
PomDeTerre

BloodHorse.com Breaking News

Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old Tiz Chrome breaks down in workout at Churchill Downs and is euthanized; was working toward start in April 24 The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (gr. III)

18 Apr 2010 12:06 PM
Tiznowbaby

I am completely and utterly heartbroken. RIP Tiz Chrome.

Such a dirty, rotten shame.

18 Apr 2010 1:07 PM
thomas

if setsuko was to get in would say he's the wiseguy horse but yeah i can see endorsement.

18 Apr 2010 1:17 PM
Citation

RiverCitySmitty, the Derby Trial and the Stepping Stone were different races. For instance, in 1955 Swaps won the Stepping Stone and Flying Fury won the Derby Trial. Does that help?

18 Apr 2010 2:03 PM
longwaytomay

Ted from LA,

 I don't think the wiseguy horse has ever won in the last twenty years. I will have him in my tri and superfecta but not on top. Still have to see the works and the post positions.

18 Apr 2010 2:34 PM
CV

What horrible news about Tiz Chrome! He was such a gorgeous colt.

When horses break down suddenly like this, it makes one wonder if there was some undetected problem with that leg, or if he just took a misstep.

18 Apr 2010 2:39 PM
Lil Darlin

That is too bad about Tiz Chrome...what a beautiful horse! Condolences to his connections.

Jess Jackson, IEAH...I wonder who else with the financial means is going to throw their hat in the ring for Esky?  This should be interesting, wonder if they'll move to sell him before or after the Derby.  Talk about a gamble...he flops and he's not as valuable, he wins and he's a cash cow.  I'll be paying close attention, see just how confident they are in their horse!

18 Apr 2010 3:01 PM
Saratoga AJ

longwaytomay:

I was just thinking, now that you mention who will be the  "wise guy Derby horse this year".

When was the last time a "wise guy" horse actually won the Derby? I can't remember one. :)

18 Apr 2010 3:08 PM
JerseyBoy

In defence of Draynay.

Please do not be too hard on Draynay. He boasts a degree in animal science from Drayno University.

18 Apr 2010 3:51 PM
draynay

Rock, we are talking about workouts before the Derby not before preps! Try to keep up. JOE MI has no chance of hitting the board any win bet money send to me I will hold it for you. Tim, maybe you haven't read my post but I have always said Mr. Pletcher is a very good trainer. However, I have also said he has no idea how to get young colts ready for the Triple Crown races and he doesn't. Mr. Pletcher himself will tell you he is try new things this year. He might as well because everything he did in the past failed. Something new can't be any worse but it tells me hasn't figured it out and he won't until he wins. My point has always been why does anyone give him a young colt if they dream of winning the Derby? He doesn't know how to win it so why give him your young horse? What does he have to do ? 0 for 30 maybe 0 for 40 before owners get a clue ? Tim, answer me one question. What does Mr. Pletcher do different then say Baffert to get a horse ready for the Derby? Name just one thing.

18 Apr 2010 3:58 PM
sodapopkid

Too bad they cant' sell Esky now. If he wins the derby his selling price will double or triple.  

Whether he wins the derby or not, I think he is still a good investment.

18 Apr 2010 4:13 PM
Russ

I was at Palm Meadows Sat for Eskendereya's work left there think he is a very good horse but the one that was ultra impressive is Mission Impazible. This could be the horse no one tis talking about. He looks like a bear.Rajiv is on fire Todd P on fire mix this guy I just witnessed....Hello...

18 Apr 2010 6:49 PM
Tim G

Well Dray since I'm not around Bob's barn I couldn't tell you. And once again Mr. High IQ it's not THEN in that context it's THAN, get it?

I know for a fact that most horses are trained the same but there is always that slight difference between trainers. Some due to their personality, some due to their work ethic and some of it due to the style of the horse and the NEEDS of that horse, some of it due to the owners themselves.

As far as Derby winners, how many trainers are 0fer? A BIG part of it is luck. Did Baffert have the best bred, best looking, best horse when Real Quiet won? Probably not but he lucked out and won the Derby (with the wrong horse from his barn). You try to get the horse right, fit and get him in the race, hope his class shows through and then hope you get the breaks. That is the main thing that is out of your control when that gate opens.

But I'll tell you for sure, Todd wins a heckuva lot of money with those young horses that he doesn't know how to train. Like Jason said in his current blog, like I said a day or so ago, Todd is a helluva trainer and the horses winning right now are young horses that HE developed, not ones that someone bought finished.

That's my point to you. There are hundreds of trainers who have never won the race. The trainers like Todd who have huge #'s of horses may have more in the race due to those #'s but in reality when a guy has 30 horses in his barn and is 0-8 that's just as bad of an average. You cannot just train a horse to win ONE race. You try to train them to win as many as possible.

Who praytell should owners give a horse to?

One race does not a lifetime make.  

But why are you asking me, you're a world champion handicapper and pseudo-trainer, go ask one of your MANY connections.

(excuse me while I try to catch my breath from laughing).

18 Apr 2010 7:14 PM
Tim G

By the way Dray, I think you just contradicted yourself. If you don't believe one trainer does anything different from any other then every trainer who's entered it should have at least one winner?

I'm not sure exactly WHAT you're trying to say.

They do things different, maybe Todd just hasn't hit on exactly the right formula for the right horse on the right day and maybe the racing gods haven't chosen to smile on him. But, I believe he'll get it. If not this year then the next or the next. Took Wayne 10 years to win his first. Hey maybe he'll start a new streak...Like he said, he taught Todd most of what Todd knows, just not everything HE knows about winning a Derby.

Rather be lucky any day.

18 Apr 2010 7:59 PM
Lil Darlin

I just re-read my post and it didn't come across quite right...so to be clear, Esky is a valuable horse no matter what, Derby or no Derby.  However, I think the aura of being a Derby favorite just adds to the whole package, and if he's a Derby winner, well, sodapopkid is right on about his price increase. They'll get a nice chunk of change for him regardless, but if he runs up the track in the Derby (unlikely IMO) he loses his domination factor.

18 Apr 2010 8:10 PM
PomDeTerre

Wise guy Derby winner? IMHO I'd have to say Funny Cide over Empire Maker.

As for dray's workout beliefs, I'l just make one more comment & then I can waste any more of my life on his foolishness.  In a word:

SWALE

no, it wasn't the Derby work; it was the 46 and change blow out after that cost him the Preakness and probably the Triple Crown. I'm resting my case on this ricuous issue.

18 Apr 2010 8:58 PM
PomDeTerre

excuse the typo pease-

Ridiculous issue.

18 Apr 2010 8:59 PM
draynay

Great writing Jason.  I have seen the light.  Esky is a lock.  Congrats to you Mr. Pletcher on your first Derby win.

18 Apr 2010 9:06 PM
jayjay

Draynay is going to bet on Esky come derby day.  All he's doing is making people dislike the horse so that he'll get a 5/2 or 3/1 odds on him.  

Tim G: Luck is something that Draynay doesn't get.  I still don't understand is handicapping skills , seems to me he relies a lot of paper info.  I'm sure everyone has hit their longshots by just betting a horse, not reading anything about the horse but just hunch and pure luck, they hit the big payout.  Like last years Derby, I hit MTB for $5 to win only because I liked Calvin Borel, and I almost got all my loses lol.

Draynay, have you ever won a bet ?  I mean seriously...even a 2$ win bet ?  You comment on everyone's pick but the ones that you have picked have never even placed or show let alone win.  It's time to post your picks and let us know WHY you think your pick(s) will win and stop this babbling about everyone else's picks.

Again, for me, depending on the draws are L@L / Esky and longshots are Icebox and Dean's Kitten.  If they lose, I'd rather lose money on my picks than lose money because I listen to some poser online :)

I got a feeling I'll make some money on Icebox though, I'm liking his chances more and more everyday.  Rain or shine, I'll bet on Icebox.

Peace!

18 Apr 2010 9:55 PM
Tim G

jayjay, he bets nothing but chalk. Have that info from a reliable source.

Racing luck and lucking out on a bet are two different things. I think it's hard to believe it's skill when all a guy bets on are the chalk bets.

$10 says that last post isn't dray or he has a misconception of what reverse psychology is.

18 Apr 2010 10:24 PM
Aluminaut

If Caracortado gets in the Derby, he'll be the "wiseguy" horse.

Scarface, ya know.

18 Apr 2010 11:19 PM
jayjay

My angle when I'm handicapping the workouts (for any race other than the KD) is I look for horses whose workout are spaced 7 days apart, specially young horses.  I said other than KD because I know that trainers most often than not tries different ways on their horses because they'll be running in a very different race than your normal race.  I never pay attn to how fast the workout is, as long as  it's spaced out a week.  Like Tim G said, trainers have a feel of how the horses are because they are with them all the time so they know what the horses like and dislike.  I can't question a trainer ever because they are the ones that physically work with the horses.

19 Apr 2010 1:26 AM
Slew

Strange...all the big time trainers, and all the prep Derby winners..and all the highly touted horses...and exactly WHO won the Derby last year?  None of them.  It still takes skill and LUCK to win the Kentucky Derby.  There are no "sure bets".  It remains a twenty horse stampede....and it takes a lot of guts to get the glory.

19 Apr 2010 8:26 AM
Billy's Empire

With regular exercise rider Dominic Terry aboard, and according to Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch, Rachel Alexandra went in splits of 12.56, 24.28, 36.16, 47.67, and 59.29 seconds before galloping out seven furlongs in 1:24.41 and a mile in 1:37.76.

Rachel is ready for Oaks Day. Get your popcorn ready folks!! She will be back in the winner's circle. What a work today!!

19 Apr 2010 9:45 AM
Tim G

Well Dublin worked 5f in 59.20, breezing this a.m.

According to the world of Dray (and actually most horsemen, cataclysmic coincidence)that should contradict those who say he doesn't like CD?

Billy? Why?  Major Shakeups in the Top Ten in the DERBY...sheesh.

Oaks day, belongs to the Oaks entrants, if you're a local you know that. The undercard? Remains to be seen but isn't the subject.

Slew, you're spot on. Like I said to jayjay, I'd rather have racing luck than the greatest horse on the planet and crummy luck in a pp draw or race or the days/weeks leading up to the big day.

These guys have skill or they wouldn't be training for long, keeping clients or making it to a race that requires graded stakes earnings. Who just has the touch in the Derby and the luck has been demonstrated by a handful.

19 Apr 2010 11:11 AM
Billy's Empire

Dray was talking about works, he loves Rachel, so I thought. let's add fuels to the fire... Sorry Timmy. I was there this morning. She looks awesome. No other blog to really post on right now, so take it and like it.. HA

19 Apr 2010 1:19 PM
PomDeTerre

Tim-now you went and put dray in between a rock and a hard pace.  Dray says: Dublin don't like CD.  Dray says fastest work wins.  Dublin breezes 59?  According to dray, he should win, but he doesn't like the track, and he hangs. OMG I'm sooo confused. You need to gIve him a shovel to dig outta that one!

19 Apr 2010 1:30 PM
Tim G

Well Billy if you were there then you also saw Dublin work. You were one of the guys/ladies who said he didn't like the track, right?

They wrote up a story on RA, she's not set to go on the undercard so WHY do you feel you HAVE to comment about it?

Pom, my point exactly. Dublin was AT CD, his work was a direct work prep for the Derby. Eskendereya, is a totally different horse. I'm not up on his work patterns. Todd doesnt' always work his as fast as Wayne tends to do. Part of Dublin's work was to see just how he's handling the track after his surgery and return from that. But Dublin had fast works at OP and unfortunately those didn't always play out in the afternoon. He was, however, doing what Wayne wanted him to do and as I said before, he didn't necessarily want to win the Ark Derby, just make a good showing and progress.

I'm all for Dublin, have said it over and over.

However, Eskendereya is the projected favorite and lets wait to see how he works at CD.

19 Apr 2010 2:13 PM
PhonyJJ

Billy Empire:  Hahahahha,  What chance in a million do you believe that you will see Ra on any race track by Oaks day??????..........."DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH"..............

19 Apr 2010 2:42 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

Rachel's work was awesome so some say......Don't you think it's time for her to step up?  Forget the lady's race on Derby weekend and point towards the Stephen Foster.  Let's see her finally try and prove herself against real G-1 horses.

19 Apr 2010 3:18 PM
Billy's Empire

Phony, stay classy! You will see the queen soon enough.

Tim, you got the wrong guy pal. I never once mentioned that Dublin did not like the track. In fact, I have never mentioned anything except for the fact that I want to see him go by horses. I get updates on Dublin all of the time, at least 2 or 3 days a week. You must of been referring to someone else. I was there this morning, and I will be there tomorrow, and almost every other day in the morning. Dont be mad!!

Last, I can comment on whatever I want to comment on. Last I checked, it was Jason's blog.

I am just going to play the wait and see approach. You all wait, and then you will see. Don't doubt me.

19 Apr 2010 3:27 PM
Tim G

You did mention that he worked well at OP also but hung.

Apologize, thought you were one who said he didn't seem to like the track.

Didn't get there in time to see him? I'm just curious which of the employees is giving you these 'updates'.

Why would I get mad if you're there? I only care about the ones that MEAN something to me. Not a hanger on as far as other horses works. Plus I see the ones that I WANT to see.

Sure talk about whatever, but if you're such a Derby/Oaks guy/girl why talk about a horse that may not even go??? Ever hear of keeping on task? I'm not sure that you need to keep us posted either. Most of what ANY one of us posts seems to be held until the BH posts their story.

19 Apr 2010 4:17 PM
sodapopkid

"WOW", did you all notice Zenyatta's sire's stud fee?  It is way more than the other fillie's sire's stud fee is.  Street Cry  137.ooo, for Aus.  which is 127.ooo in US dollars,  Medaglio d'oro RA sire is 88.ooo in US dollars......Now tell me she ain't the queen,  Gosh, she is making Street Cry happy and proud, and making Darley richer.............

19 Apr 2010 7:04 PM

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