If Churchill gets that downpour, might as well throw out all logic. It could be ugly! Maybe I will play the three longest shots.

The weather is the winner and this race is wide open. In this potentail major thunderstorm I wouldn't knock anyone's picks. For anyone to win any exotic you will need a longshot in the top two. I'm going to key on two longshots but am going to wait to see what the weather is really like first. I won't be going allin. The weather will be too much of a factor but i'll be taking a stab for big bucks.

It seems that Rachel doesn't like going eyeball to eyeball, but whatever is going on now should not detract from her great 3yo season. However it did seem to take something out of her that she hasn't recovered from. She is extremely talented but is not exhibiting the class of a champion as a 4yo. Her talent ruled as a 3yo but we are seeing some flaws now when she is put to the test as a 4yo. Maybe she just needs more time or maybe she is just really talented but without a ton of class. We may not see the Rachel and Zenyatta matchup. At this point Zenyatta is world champion of the major leagues, and Rachel is trying to work her way back up to the big leagues.

Hmmm...you forget about Mine that Bird closing from the back of the pack last year...he definitely wasn't close to the pace and it was a sloppy track!

The Hammer picked Noble's Promise and everyone knows what that means. Bad luck for him

Well as usual "spot-on."  Little has changed since I asked you "What you thought of Lookin at Lucky" after his Del Mar Derby score and your reply was "Pretty good."  And if you like Lucky you have to like NP.  He is one of the few that can turn the tables on Lucky over dirt.  Plus, he is kicking the barn door down.  I also like the fleeting "speed" play of Conveyance (Why not he's pretty near undefeated and the Holy Bull blood could un-cork/after last year ANYTHING is game). I'm actually leaning towards Line of David a bit more to freak onto the ticket.  

Ice Box

Awesome Act

Super Saver

Stately Victor

+ a good race & safe trip for all

Rachel ran a huge race along with Unrivled Belle they BOTH RAN FASTER then the boys an hour later.  Rachel ran a faster time today then she did in any race last year at 1 1/16th. I believe her next race will prove she is back !!!

Oaks:

It's Tea Time/Ailalea(1st time blinkers) with ITT/Ailalea/Jody Slew with ITT/Ailalea/Jody Slew/Blind Luck.

Derby:

LaL/Ice Box/DMC/SC with LaL/Ice Box/DMC/SC with LaL/Ice Box/DMC/SC/DM/SV/Conv. with LaL/Ice Box/DMC/SC/DM/SV/Conv.

$$ across the board on top 4 picks & exacta box em'.

The Filly will run huge & I see Ice Box running a Strike The Gold type of race(sloppy track) if he's in contention on the far-turn & switches leads on cue.

Yes, the weather is probably the favorite.

I will most likely structure small exacta and tri bets with LAL,  Noble's Promise, Sidney's Candy, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care and possibly Jackson Bend and Super Saver.  I think Sidney's Candy odds will get better because of the post.  Then, maybe, a couple of longshot bets, if they are still longshots, on Stately Victor and Line of David.

Draynay

Yawn.....your excuses are getting to be too much.  The only thing more predictable than you is that it will get dark sometime tonight.  What are you going to say tomorrow when LAL romps?

Oh, Rachel was still there.  Just a nose, not a couple of lengths.  She will be back.

Oh, like others my picks will probably change a dozen times because of the weather.  I know I will stick with Mission Impazible.  You know, Mine That Bird had post position 2 last year; the same as Ice Box.  So, there's a thought for all.

sticking with my future pool bets - took a bit more on super saver - nothing would surprise me in this race though

super saver

american lion

nobles promise

dublin

and the poster above conflicts from what i have read - the early reports i have read state rachel lost to an average horse and her future is uncertain now

Almost forgot to put Awesome Act in the bottom of my exotics too.

Rachel is cooked,..stick her in the Fridge where the eggs are cooling,the jell-o's jiggling & the butter is getting hard! Her losing after splits of :24+ & :48+ says it all.

You heard it here first, Stately Victor will win the Triple Crown.  Stately Victor is my Derby horse!

Hope your right Dray.  The worst thing to watch is a fighter past his prime.  Alli in his late years...not pretty.  I don't think RA is washed up.  Let them get her 110% right and then put the two best female horses of the last year into the ring.  I just hope the connections don't make any snap decisions about her retirement and she came out of the race sound.

Sorry, sorry. Messed up.  Too many numbers in my head and on paper.

Mine That Bird had post 8, not 2.  

That does it.  I will fix my original bets and stick to them.  All done.

I can try and spin it, but there's no denying my disappointment with Rachel's performance in the La Troienne.  Unrivaled Belle is a quality filly and was coming off a solid(but unspectacular) gr.3 win in the Rampart.  However, this is the same Unrivaled Belle who was a distant 2nd to Flashing in the Gazelle and 4th in the La Canada at Santa Anita earlier this year.  Similar to how Zardana came into the Fair Grounds race, Unrivaled Belle came into the La Troienne with Beyers in the 90s.  Rachel of 2009 would have blown her off the track.

And it's using the Rachel of last year as a measuring stick that has made her two performances this year so disappointing.  Some have taken Rachel's defeats this year as evidence that Rachel was never that good, that she beat up on mediocre competition, and that Zenyatta should have been Horse of the Year.  I disagree strongly with such revisionism.

Rachel was phenomenal last year.  She accomplished things I never thought I would see from a 3 year old filly, and did it with brilliance.  Some are now claiming that Rachel can't stand being tested eyeball to eyeball.  What?  Utter nonsense.  Rachel was eyeball to eyeball with Gabby's Golden Gal(a 2 time gr.1 winner) in the Kentucky Oaks and then slapped her aside.  In the Preakness she was head and head with Big Drama early before dismissing him and holding off the Derby winner.  

In the Mother Goose, Rachel actually rated 3rd and last behind Flashing and Malibu Prayer before enhaling those two at the top of the stretch.  Then in the Haskell Rachel was positioned right off Munnings' flank early, with Summer Bird down on the rail.  Summer Bird was actually right alongside Rachel for almost the entire race until Rachel turned on the jets and spurted clear at the top of the stretch.  Finally in the Woodward, Rachel went head and head with D'Tara early, with Past the Points during the middle fractions, Bullsbay in upper stretch, and with Macho Again down to the wire.  For a filly that supposedly can't look another horse in the eye, she did it 4 separate times in the Woodward!

The La Troienne could not have shaped up better for Rachel.  She was allowed to stalk an overmatched Be Fair through soft early fractions.  And before Draynay tries to convince people that Rachel is best running faster earlier(1:10 for 6 furlongs), remember that the fractions for the La Troienne were very similar to the fractions in last year's Kentucky Oaks(1:11 and 4 for 6 furlongs, 1:36 and 3 mile).  Last year, Rachel cruised through moderate fractions in the Oaks and then just didn't stop, powering away from the field without even being asked.

Today, at Churchill, Rachel was again allowed to stalk a horse through moderate fractions.  And like last year, Rachel did come home with solid splits.  However, there were two differences between the La Troinne and Kentucky Oaks.  First, Unrivaled Belle is better(as a 4 year old) than the 3 year old fillies Rachel faced last year.  Second, and of most importance as it concerns Rachel's current status, she was all-out today to run a final eighth in :12 and 2 while last year in the Oaks she cruised the final eighth in :12 and 1 even though she was running a longer distance and was actually being eased by Borel.

You can't spin the fact Rachel ran a faster final eighth under wraps(at a longer distance and through slightly faster early fractions) in last year's Oaks than she did today under full encouragement.  For whatever reason, Rachel is still a good way from being where she was last year.  If she was her old self, she would be 2 and 0 this year.  Instead, she's 0 and 2.

It's only because I so respect what Rachel accomplished last year and the brilliance she displayed, that I can be certain that she's not as good right now.  While Rachel is meeting tougher competition this year, the Rachel of last year would have manhandled Zardana and Unrivaled Belle. Rachel of 2009 was an all-time great, one of the greatest females ever.  Zardana and Unrivaled Belle are not.  

Dr Drunkinbum,

Something else to consider is that Rachel is carrying more weight this year than last. I think another commenter talked about that on this blog a month or so ago.

To me, Steve Asmussen's comment in the Bloodhorse article is telling. He said "You get paid for what you do, but you pay for what you do. I think there’s some hangover (from last season)."

Many racing pundits and fans praised Rachel last year for "laying her body on the track" to hold off competitors but one has to wonder what that cost such a brilliant filly. Maybe we're seeing the price now.

With the torrential downpour headed for the Twin Spires on Derby day, all prearranged wagers should be reviewed seriously before heading to the windows. When the weather forcast provided reason for optimism about a fast and dry track, I was planning to push my chips all in with exotics (superfectas mainly)and a couple win bets. But whats expected tomorrow at post time in terms of track conditions has put a damper in my all-in wagering mood so I'm gonna shorten it up a bit especially after the unthinkable results from last years mud race. But, of all the uncertainty that the rain brings to this years contest, Lookin at Lucky still appears to be the only one sure to hit the board. Do I give any credence to his recent troubled journeys going a distance of ground in grade 1 company? Absolutely not. He has all the tools you look for in a 3 year old at this time of year and he's already a proven champion.

Next, without telling all my Ancient Chinese secrets for this years Derby, I'll also be playing Stately Victor and Awesome Act in my rain handicapped exotics. Stately Victor is a man amongst children at this point. He's a mature 3 year old and he's comfortable coming hard from well off the pace. The way he was plowing home in the Blue Grass was breathtaking and his 30-1 odds are more than enough to push me in his direction. Awesome Act was going to burst at the top of the stretch in the Wood if not for a death grip by Julian L. so I expect him to be right there at the end also. Nobles Promise will be gased and crawling past the finish line with his pedigree being by Cuvee. This is The Derby! Not some high school prep race going 8F against a hoard of classless dreamers. He has a better chance in the Preakness going a shorter distance. Sidneys Candy has much to much to overcome for me to bet him; the least of which being that he has never run on dirt, let alone the slop that awaits him and his 20th post at 5:24pm et. So I'm also throwing him and his 5-1 odds from all precious tickets. I could be wrong about Sid but I expect him to hate the track much the same as Any Given Saturday despised the wet going in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic. Regardless of tomorrows results, I plan to thorougly enjoy this seasons crop of 3 years olds duke it out on the biggest day in Horse Racing!! Happy Derby All!!

"She's just not been as fast as last Summer," her trainer Steve Asmussen, said after friday's loss.  "She ran a good race, but not a great race."

I would love to go with Crisp in the Oaks because she's just such a tall, grand looking filly and I think she will be a serious distaffer.  However, it's clear to me that she had everything her way against Blind Luck in the SA Oaks, and that Blind Luck is much better on dirt than Pro-Ride.  On the other hand, Crisp is unproven on dirt.

I've felt all along that the West Coast 3 year old filles were superior, with the exception of Devil May Care.  Without the Devil, I expect the Cali based fillies to do well.

In my opinion, Blind Luck was the best 2 year old filly and has run the best race by a 3 year old filly(Fantasy).  I would be a hypocrite to choose anyone else.  My only concern is that I've noticed a trend that synth horses don't run quite as well on dirt second time out(2nd time in a row).

I was extrememly impressed with Amen Hallelujah when she beat Fanny Freud in the gr.2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita ealier this year.  This came after a strong 3rd in the gr.1 Starlet.  In her two races at Gulfstream she crushed a gr.2 field at a mile and then ran 2nd to the Devil at 9 furlongs.  She should have the lead at the top of the stretch, although 9 furlongs is probably pushing it. 2nd.

Tidal Pool has dangerous speed, and has been running big figures.  9 furlongs is likely a push for her as well, but I think she can hang on for a piece.

Crisp for 4th.  I respect Evening Jewl, and think she's all heart.  However, today will likely be her Waterloo.

Long shot combos for this Derby

Dublin - The consistent grinder

Super Saver - Should have most left at the finish for the speed horses, could hang on.

Awesome Act -  The bet is that he has another Gotham like run in him.

Mission Implazible - long shot to win. I did not like horse/jocky relationship in La Derby hopefully can figure out who is boss and have a clean late charge. Speed shows this horse can match any one in this race.

TJ

LMFAO

my picks for the oaks are tidal pool, champagne d'Oro and jody slew

my picks for the derby are American lion cause of his post, statly victor because he ran pretty good in his debut. and if it rains ill take ice box if it doesn't rain then ill take dublin.

I just love the itty bitty filly. Great job Blind Luck. With that style, it's tough.

Yes, the La Troienne was slightly faster than the Alysheba.

La Troienne: 1:42.97

Alysheba: 1:43.28

That actually backs up my point about Rachel still being quite a ways from her 09' form.  Comparing the time of the 2 races, Unrivaled Belle ran about .31 faster than Arson Squad.  That translates into 1.5 lengths.  So, Rachel ran about 1.25 lengths faster than Arson Squad.  We should be celebrating that?

Listen, I really like Arson Squad.  I saw him in person win the 06' Swaps Stakes and then in all 3 legs of the 07' Strub Series(He won the Strub over Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Spring at Last, and Awesome Gem).  I've felt for a while that the 07' Strub horses have been underated, which is why Arson Squad and Awesome Gem are still making alot of money as 7 year olds.

However, Arson Squad is far from being a Hall of Famer.  When history is written, he will not go down as equals to the top horses from the crop of 2003, horses like Barbaro, Bernardini, and even Lawyer Ron.  Arson Squad is a solid horse, a really nice 7 year old, but I don't rate him near the top of this year's handicap division.  Do you really think he could challenge Quality Road?

And looking at the 2nd and 3rd horses from the Alysheba, Flying Private's best moments were when 2nd in the 09' Lane's End and 4th in the Preakness and Enriched had never placed in a graded stakes before today.  Flying Private was coming off a 2nd in small Oaklawn Stakes to the Baffert synth-dirt horse, Total Bull.  

How would Rachel of 09' have done against Arson Squad?  I have a feeling she would have beaten him by alot more than 1.25 lengths.  

And honestly, I don't quite understand why Rachel shouldn't be up to speed by now.  The Fair Grounds race I could somewhat understand.  Then after that race, Jess Jackson told us that it had been a rush job, and made it seem like he only ran her because he had a gun to his head in order to make the Apple Blossom.

Well, Jackson had Rachel skip the Apple Blossom.  There was no rush for the La Troienne.  He had not made any committment to run in the La Troienne nor use it as a prep for a future committment.  So, the "rush excuse" doesn't apply here.

Before the La Troienne, Jackson said Rachel would still only be 90% for the race.  Given the result, I would have to agree that the Rachel we saw today was no better than 90% of the Rachel we saw last year.  However, that begs two questions:

1) Why isn't Rachel 100% by now? She's been jogging since early January, training since late January and had a race March 13th followed by 7 weeks of strong works.  And this is still not enough?  This leads to the 2nd question,

2) Will Rachel ever get back to 100%?

She wasn't rushed.  She had a race. She had 7 weeks of additional works.  Jackson and Asmussen had full control of running in the La Troienne; they can't claim they were pushed into running. It was at her home track, a track she won the Oaks by 20 over.  Yet, she lost.  

Yes, she beat Zardana, who bombed 2nd time dirt.  However, if the La Troienne was an improvement over the FairGrounds Distaff, it was only a marginal improvement.  Given all the excuses Jackson made for the FairGrounds loss, laying it mostly at the feet of Oaklawn owner Charles Cella for rushing Rachel's schedule, what will be his excuses for today?  He can't lay this one at Cella's feet.  Mr. Jackson himself had total authority over the decision to run in the La Troienne.  So, what happened?

In my opinion, it's fairly easy. Rachel is just not near where she was last year.  Even if we assume she will improve 3rd start out, will she be back to her 09' form?  It's looking less likely.  And if she's not back to her 09' form, she not only will be in deep against Quality Road and Zenyatta, she will continue to struggle with the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle.  

I felt compelled to post a few thoughts on the Derby, so here goes. Yes, LAL appears to be the one to beat, but something keeps drawing me to American Lion. I never like the "need for speed" types, but he looks to be improving and might work out a nice stalking trip. I also give a chance to Stately Victor mostly on the basis of his off track pedigree and it looks as if he has come to hand and oddly enough, I don't think he'll be as far back early as most think. It also is quite likely that Conveyance will make a comfortable lead and he could hang on in the slop. Paddy O'Prado has been super in his morning drills and he might be sitting on a career effort. Finally, I give Super Saver some respect here, he kind of reminds me of Bluegrass Cat a few years ago so I guess he's worth a duece!

Just like to inform all that St. Nicholas abbey has been hammered in from 7/4, to 10/11 in about eight hours. He's back!

P.S What a race that oaks was!

2000 guineas 7.00 e/t - the best horse you'll see all weekend...

Good luck all, especially those with Dublin and Line of David on their tickets.

 Hello EVERYONE

IT'S SHOWTIME !

Turn DOWN the CHATTER and

turn up the VOLUME

as the great JACK Whitaker

once said

at the KENTUCKY DERBY

the VOLUME is turned ALL THE WAY UP

and EVERYTHING

is in CAPITAL LETTERS!!

Well I still LIKE:

Looking @ LUCKY despite the POST

and SUPER SAVER to me having won

over the track and  

DESPITE all the " HATE" folks have

toward Todd Pletcher , I have a

VIBE that hasnt GONE AWAY that's

telling me  IT'S HIS TIME

u LOSE a horse like

EKENDREYA, SEEMS LIKE the

his "best chance is gone"

and like a  Baffert or his

mentor WAYNE LUKAS whom Im GLAD to

see back in the "mix"

WINS with the so- called  

"SECOND stringer"

and I could be COMPLELTELY

"wrong" ABOUT this but

SUPER Saver to me looks like a

REAL CONTENDERand interstingly

enuff' NO ONE is looking at the

horse that BEAT him in ARKANSAS,

LINE OF DAVID, MYSELD included,

yet everyone LIKES DUBLIN

Definitely a horse you PUT in the

EXOTICS , a horse that I

BELEIVEwill make a GOOD RUN

The QUESTION is WHERE will he make it from?

Will he STALK and move from JUST

off the pace 1- 5- 6 lengths,  or

FROM a little FURTHER BACK and

make the ONE RUN,where I think he

COULD CAN  BE MORE EFFECTIVE

Unless the horse that beat him at

9F  FAIL to "FIRE" at A MILE and a

QUARTER and he can run EVERYONE

DOWN

Something tells me that the

FORMER strategy will FAIL

because I THINK

Looking at LUCKYwill get both the

"trip" and "FIRST RUN" on Dublin,

the STRATEGY and the execution or

FAILURE of JOCKS to carry theirs

out will be ARGUABLY the MOST

INTERSTING set of circumstances

that  ANYONE has seen

U have the TOP TWO FAVORITES

at BOTH ends of the

POST POSITION SPECTRUM

U got LOOKING at Lucky in the no#1

slot, a PLACE NO ONE WANTS 2 BE

and Sidney's CANDY the

probable "second choice"

PARKED out in the CLUBHOUSE

in the #20 hole

If John Sadler AND Joe Talamo can

be AS OPTIMISTIC  as Richard

Dutrow and Kent  Desormeaux were

with BIG BROWN were in 2008 WHEN

THEY "SAVED ground" out of that

same  POST, THEN it's a NON ISSUE

The difference is, DUTROW "boldly"

 chose the 20 SPOT , wheras the

traditional "BLIND DRAW" through

NO CHOICE of Sadler's put his

horse out in Lexington somewhere  

I still think he CAN RUN WELL from

out there, but a LOT OF U GUYS

will chalk up his post as a

DISQUALIFIER and look ELSWEWHERE,

and no ONE COULD BLAME YOU for

doing so

AMERICAN LION , who was dusted off

by Sidne's Candy in the Santa

Anita Derby to me is the "X FACTOR"

Can he turn the tables on his

rival, can he  RELAX or even SET

or PRESS the pace, and carry his

speed like his sire TIZNOW over

the 10F ?

Or  is he ALONG with CONVEYANCE

get SWALLOWED up in the CROSSFIRE

of a LIVELY PACE and finish UP THE track /

he and CONVEYANCE to many have

LITTLE CHANCE, but the EARLY line

SUGGESTS 12- 1  that he may get

SUPPORT at the WINDOWS

I think BOTH of these will be 15

TO 30 -1

if I had to MAKE ONLY ONE pick

for this race

it would be...

iLL TELL YOU LATER !!

Still havent  MADE UP MY MIND

Thanks look for my 2nd BLOG

before the day is DONE

c.s.

LOOKING at LUCKY

 Super ME ACTSaver

  AWESO

and  

Just another $11,500 Cali-synthetic specialist, who fails to show up for the big one, hitting you right between the eyes.  I would say Amen was 10 lengths behind her again.  Hmmm...Devil May What?  I'm now calling Blind Luck "Little Pollyetta."  

DRAYNAY

What were you saying about a "ninety percent RA would beat Zenyatta" ? YOU WERE WRONG TODAY,BE A MAN AND ADMIT IT,INSTEAD OF PULLING ANOTHER EXCUSE FROM YOUR BAG! The same race if it were last year RA would've blown by them!

GunBow, Zardana was very keen today. Her jock had his feet on the dashboard down the backstretch. If she had settled properly, I don't know if she could have challenged the top two, but she sure didn't helpe herself.

I think with all the rain expected tonight and tomorrow in Louisville, I really will trifacta box the gray's. It started out as a joke, but with the mud, they look pretty good. I also intend to use, Awesome Act, I really think this horse is sitting on a monster race and love his jockey, Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky. Maybe a couple other's mixed in.

I wonder if any will scratch if the track conditions get really bad.

Gunbow

Sorry to disagree.  Rachel ran in phenominal races last year but beat mediocre competition.  A further look at the Alysheba proves it yet again and it was a G-3, not a G-1.  She's a very good horse, but not as great as all the hype some have been spinning.

       I really hope " Devil May Care " wins the Derby ! We need another Super Star ! Anyday , Rachel or Zenyatta could be headed to the broodmare barn, So it would be nice to see a "star" in the making :)

I also think that Paddy O'Prado is much improved and has a good chance.  But they need to return him to his previous come-from-behind style, regardless of the weather.  If they try to stay near the lead, I don't think he'll be around at the finish.  The pace is likely to be brutal with at least 5 real front runner types and several others that are normally near the lead.  Much more speed here than in most Derbys.

CV

Your damn right they are paying a price for overextending her last yr. All the so called RA lovers and blog hosts' that said last year I was wrong regarding my comments that RA was raced too much are eating their words! She's not the same and now has trouble in getting seperation. RA's connections won their HOY award,BUT AT WHAT PRICE?

Dray,  How many races this year have we got to wait for for her to be BACK??   Who will she race agaisnt next?  Grade 4, 5, 6, stringers........??

I'm sorry, but I feel Rachel is history.  I think they left her in the barn to long..........she should have been back in training in Florida before the end of 09, at least in light training.

Tiznowbaby,

I noticed that about Zardana, too. She seemed to be throwing her head around. Maybe the noise of the crowd got her riled up. She seemed to be on the rail and in contention at one point, then a moment later she was running on the outside and fading back. Perhaps she used all her energy fighting her jockey.  

I watched a post-race interview with Jess Jackson and someone asked him if Calvin Borel will stay on Rachel and it seemed to me he kind of dodged the answer. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

As an aside, it appears Blind Luck has the same running style as Zenyatta. I wonder if the two will ever meet in a race this year.

Finally, Noble's Promise called for you Dray. He saw the effect the "Draynay jinx" had on Amen Hallelujah and he's like you to pick another horse for the Derby.

I was disappointed to see that Rachel lost again.  Her flaws were apparent last year as well, but few wanted to see them.  I always felt and wrote that she was a very good, but overrated filly whose 4th and 5th year would determine her place in history.  I wish her well.

I believe most of us will have to admit that Zenyatta is the best damn race horse in the world!!! thats racing... and being 6 years old and loving what she is doing...You can't beat that......You have  to give credit to the Mosses..........They know how to manage a horse.

CV

We've got to get Draynay to pick 19 horses.  LOL

Jason:

These should be or are very close to best mile times that the horse's have run in a route race (graded or stakes)on dirt or awt track.

American Lion 135.82 awt

Awesome Act 137.33 dirt

Balktalk 139.81 dirt

Conveyance 136.48 awt&dirt

Dean's Kitten 137.73 awt

Devil May Care 136.18 dirt

Discreetly Mine 137.59 dirt

Dublin 136.60 dirt

Homeboykris 136.23 dirt

Ice Box 136.66 dirt

Jackson Bend 135.53 dirt

Line of David 136.18 dirt

Lookin at Lucky 136.91 dirt

Make Music For Me 137.90 awt

Mission Impazible 137.35 dirt

Noble's Promise 136.75 dirt

Paddy O'Prado 136.98 awt

Sidney's Candy 136.07 awt

Stately Victor 136.83 awt

Super Saver 136.45 dirt

Pedigree Pedigree,

We already have a super star and she is not going to the broodmare barn ANY DAY.

GunBow,

I agree with EVERYTHING you said in your recent posts.

Blind Luck's whisker victory proves how difficult it is to win consistently when a horse is a dead closer. Even if the competition isn't the absolute best, it's enough to give you a heart attack.

Thanks to that gutsy Cali filly, I'm still alive in my Oaks/Derby double. She was my ONE horse in the Oaks because I had that much faith in her and because I wanted to be able to load up on the Derby side, which continues to mystify me.

I'm sad for Rachel Alexandra. I think she tried very hard. What more can we ask of any horse? I wish the Woodward would have never happened. I really feel that the price was too high for that victory. I hope I'm wrong.

First, no body jumps off the past performances page this year. A very equal group of performers, with only two showing a triple digit Beyer in their last two races, Devil May Care (100) and Sidney's Candy(100).

Secondly, there is a lot of "speed type" horses in this group and their wet number:

#4-Super Saver -412

#5-Line of David -407

#7-American Lion -424

#12-Conveyance -394

#15-Discreetly Mine -379

#20-Sidney's Candy  -385

and I'll include #10-Paddy O'Prado -361

for a total of 7 horses wanting the front end.

Thirdly,the balk of the field are stalker types who like to lay off the pace and close on the far turn:

#1-Looking At Lucky- 393

#3-Nobles Promise -463!

#8-Deans Kitten -338

#9-Make Music for Me -381

#11-Devil May Care -361

#13-Jackson Bend -374

#14-Mission Impazible -379

#17-Dublin -343

#18-Backtalk -309

#19-Homeboykris -376

Fourthly, there are three close from the back types:

#2-Ice Box -393

#6-Stately Victor

#16-Awesome Act -417

Fifthly, horses who have run on a wet track:

#4-Super Saver

#6-Stately Victor

#8-Deans Kitten

#10-Paddy o'Prado

#11-Devil May Care

#14-Mission Impazible

#15-Discreetly Mine

#17-Dublin

#18-Backtalk

#19-Homeboykris

Sixthly, horses that have WON on a wet track:

#4-Super Saver

#11-Devil May Care

#15-Discreetly Mine

#18-Backtalk (twice)

Seventhly, Horses that have PLACED on a wet track:

#4-Super Saver

#6-Stately Victor

#14-Mission Impazible

Eightly, Horses that have SHOWED on a wet track:

#14-Mission Impazible

Ok, taking all this into account, I believe because there is so much speed, they will mostly run each other into the ground by the time they exit the far turn, except for one who will probably be laying about 6th or 7th of the first group of speed types and that is Paddy O'Prado. So I think Paddy will be one of the top three at the finish. Along with him I look for the best two closers to be finishing strongly, namely Ice Box and Statley Victor. Of the stalkers, those most likely to still be around at the end would be Looking at Lucky, Nobles Promise, Devil May Care and Mission Impazible.

So, I kind of like Jason's tri box, but I would try to add into the bet somehow, Ice Box and Stately Victor.

This has to be one of the toughtest races ever to figure out, and I wouldn't go crazy with any bet, becuase just about anything could happen.

I know this is a different opinion for finish than I have expressed before, but this is what I am finally ending up with- GOOD LUCK TO ALL.....

Rachel just lost a Grade 2 Race, not even a Grade 1.  I have said it before and say it again, Jackson cooked her last year to get Hoy, got his Hoy and now he has no horse.  Justice I would say.   Retire her now before she is injured and still has some legacy left.  She will never beat Zenaytta so what is the point of running her just to keep losing.  If she is not back to 100percent by now she never will be.  

I think Rachel's problem is equipment. I really think that she can't breathe very well with the figure 8 bridle. Figure 8s can compromise breathing as they put pressure on the soft tissue in the nose area. Last year when she was racing, she did not have anything on her nose. Not even a noseband. I think if the figure 8 is removed we might see last year's Rachel again. Now if the equipment comes off and she doesn't improve, then maybe she is still tired from last year; however, I would like to see the equipment change before I conclude that she is not the same horse.

As for the KY Derby, wow I just don't know. It is interesting to read everyone's opinion though. The race is really wide open.

Rachel just isn't the horse that she was last year... That is really all that there is to it. The Rachel of last year would have destroyed Zardana or UB. I would like to see her stay in training because I am a HUGE Zen fan, and would like to see the matchup, but I also think that it wouldn't mean as much to beat RA if she wasn't running in "top" form.

I kind of like Backtalk in the Derby... I know call me crazy, but I do. :)

Today in the Gr.3 Alysheba, Arson Squad easily beat the two Gr. 1s that Rachel made her name by beating last year in the Woodward.  I believe Bullsbay finished last, with Macho again finishing third to last.

Rachel didn't win because Draynay keeps touting her.  Just look at Amen Hallelujah, one more sad victim for the Draynay Curse!!!

I was liking Super Saver until I saw that A) he is 7:1, and B) Calvin's luck today was not good.  I am getting bad vibes now about Super Saver.

Rachel losing ruined my day, as I was banking on her for my opening pick 3 and was short stacked and relegated to Exactas the rest of the day.  I was on target with 1st place but couldn't hit but one exacta today... very sad!!  

Not any wire to wire winners today, and to me that does not bode well for Line of David or Conveyance tomorrow.

I will only choose three horses and probably put money on each of their noses, or use them as the anchor of my pick 3.

American Lion

Mission Impazible

Devil May Care

On the other topics discussed, Rachel is still a good horse.  She is not coming from off the pace or relaxing early and that is hurting her.  She has yet to catch her best stride, but I think she will get there, but maybe not good enough to fight the boys this year.  She has the talent to win the Distaff (Ladie's Classic), but will not win the big BCC.

Dray, stay off of American Lion, and MI please!  

Laz:

You know you can't use the performances of Bullsbay and Macho Again today as proof Rachel beat mediocre competition last year.  Bullsbay and Macho haven't run big since the Woodward.  Bullsbay won the Alysheba last year, so clearly he was in much better form.  That logic would be like saying that Zenyatta didn't beat much in the BC Classic because the top finishers came back to bomb in Dubai.

Rachel was THAT good last year.  Yes, the male horses were not great, but you have to admit Summer Bird, Musket Man, and last year's Macho Again and Bullsbay are better than Zardana and Unrivaled Belle.  Zardana and Unrivaled Belle could not have won 3 gr.1 races over males last year like Rachel did.  Yet, they are beating her now?

I have no doubts that the Rachel of 09' would have handled both Zardana at the FairGrounds and Unrivaled Belle at Churchill fairly easily.  The fact Rachel is 0 for 2 this year is not really a reflection on her form last year.  It's clear to me she is not close to her 09' form right now.

And this happens to horses, especially females.  Lady's Secret had one of the greatest years ever by a female in 86' but then couldn't do anything the next year.  After the 88' BC Distaff, Winning Colors was a non-factor in big races in 89'.  Bayakoa won her 2nd BC Distaff in 90' and then lost 3 straight races to start 91' off before being retired.  Meadow Star beat Lite Light in the 91' Mother Goose and then never won another race of importance.

Horses lose form all the time.  It even happens to great horses.  Rachel was a great horse last year, but she hasn't been great so far this year.  While it's possible she can return to her best, it's looking ever more unlikely.

Even if Rachel is not able to return to her past form, I will never look at her 09' campaign any differently.  It was simply the greatest season by a 3 year old filly in modern history.  That year is done with.  However, like all horses, Rachel could have added to her CAREER by putting together another great campaign this year.  The fact she might never regain top form will affect how her overall career is rated among the greats.  

Rather than being compared to greats like Serena's Song, Lady's Secret, Bayakoa, Azeri, Personal Ensign, Gallorette, Gamely and others that had multiple outstanding seasons Rachel might  be compared with greats like Davona Dale, Rags to Riches, Dance Smartly, and Busher who had one amazing year.

The only need I have to bring up Zenyatta is to point out how amazing she has been in winning every race.  Winning top races is not easy.  Winning the first or even second start of the season isn't easy, as Rachel has shown.  Yet, no matter the timing, the field, the distance, the weight, Zenyatta wins.  Zenyatta came back off a 7 month layoff last year to win the Milady and then won her 2nd start in the Vanity.  She came back off a 5 month layoff this year to win the Santa Margarita under 127 lbs and then came 3/4ths across the US to win the Apple Blossom on dirt. Zenyatta has made winning 10 grade 1 races look easy, but it isn't.  Rachel's struggles this year show how difficult it is for a horse to be perfect race after race.  Zenyatta has been perfect 16 straight races; she has won 10 consecutive gr.1 races.  That truly is remarkable.

With the weather boding to be a major factor in the Derby, I have decided to toss all the prior works/pedigrees/figs and "last outs."  Instead, I have turned to the Doctrine of Dog for the winner.  

After meditating for a couple of hours with the DRF clasped in my hands, I ventured into the backyard with my 2 canine companions.  Once there, I proceeded to call out all the names of the Derby entries.  There was no puppy response until I cried out, "Jackson Bend."  At that point, my male doggie came flying to me.  (My female doggie isn't into racing, unless its NASCAR. She thinks JefF Gordon is cute. No accounting for taste.)

I was flummoxed at my boy's choice of Jackson Bend until I started to scientifically evaluate his reasoning.

There are 2 strong reasons that Jackson Bend is my pup's choice.  1 - the name "Jackson" sounds like "Snackson!" And my pup does love his snacks.

2 - my boy feels a kinship with JB because they are just about the same size!

So, there you have it.  I have to play JB. I encourage everyone else to heed the Call of the Canine and back Jack!  (Just remember, if he doesn't hit the board, you were taking advice from a pooch.)

I hit with Doubles Partner today, and sticking with Super Saver.  Is Jason's new nickname, "The Hammer"?  LOL.....

I guess you all saw a different race then i did.  The girls ran more then a quarter of a second faster then the G1 winning boys.  Something around a 106 Beyer I would guess.  Her time was faster then any race she ran last year at the same distance.  How many horses are running a sub 143 at 1 1/16th?  Rachel is clearly heading in the right direction and ready for the big time now.  Please try to remember it's only April.  Geez.

Lucky and Noble got the Draynay jinx.  Then Lucky got a double whammy with the the Beyer jinx.  Good luck winning anything with them now.

Blind Luck almost gave me a heart attack.  I singled her in my Oaks/Derby/Woodford pick 3.  Thankfully she got up in time or my ticket would already be dead.  And it's a pricey one because I used half the damn Derby field since I think at least ten could win.    

BTW, I'm north of Louisville and the storms heading their way just left here.  So far it's not that bad.  LOUD and a good light show, but not dumping near as much rain as forecast.  

It also got here several hours earlier than forecast, so it will probably be hitting Churchill sooner than expected (so getting over with sooner).  So I think there's a good chance the track won't be bad tomorrow.

The wet track is another variable in this race, but may the best horse win.

1. Sidney's Candy - hope he breaks well and gets good position.

2. Paddy O'Prado - working great, will get the distance.

3. Lookin at Lucky - tough horse, no surprise if he wins.

4. Devil May Care - solid filly, looked terrific in her latest work.

Good luck!

Jason or anybody who might know,

Why is Albarado off of Noble's Promise and on Dean's Kitten? It's not like he has been riding Kitten all along... but he was the jockey on Noble's in the last 2 races. Anybody know what the story is?

Handicapping and betting are quite different beasts.

I thought I did a fairly good job handicapping the Oaks.  All along I have thought the Cali fillies were superior.  You had Bickersons and Amen Hallelujah go to Gulfstream and win gr.2s, Evening Jewel win the gr.1 Ashland, and Blind luck win the gr.2 Fantasy.  The superiority of the Cali fillies was proven in the actual running of the Oaks.

Of the Cali horses, I liked Blind Luck the most.  Check.

Of the non-Cali horses I liked Tidal Pool the most.  Check; she finished 3rd.

But it's that 2nd spot where I was so very wrong.  I picked Amen Hallelujah.  As for Evening Jewel, as a fan I really liked her and respected her heart, toughness, and consistency.  Not only that, her trainner James Cassidy has been sharp out West.  But the hnadicapper in me said she didn't want to run 9 furlongs, that she might not like dirt(the Oaks was her 1st on dirt), and as a Cal-bred was probably out-classed(plus she has lost to Blind Luck and Crsip).

Really, the Oaks was a virtual replay of the Las Virgenes Stakes February 13th at Santa Anita when Blind Luck got up in the final stride to tag Evening Jewel on the wire.  Of course, many outside of Cali downplayed the Las Virgenes because the Beyer was only a 87.

As much as I like James Cassidy and Evening Jewel, it really would have been a shame had Blind Luck lost the Oaks.  Blind Luck had to close from 14th and last even though the pace was quite tepid.  To make this task more difficult, she had to go extremely wide, 6-wide officially although it looked more like 9-wide.  It would have been excusable had she hung a little in the stretch given such a trip, but she didn't.  Instead she kept motoring to get the win.

The Oaks was Blind Luck's 4th career gr.1 win.  Blind Luck very easily could be an undefeated 10 for 10 with 7 gr.1 wins if not for a length in the gr.1 Del Mar Debutante(2nd), a few necks in the gr.1 BC Juvenile Fillies(3rd), and a few noses in the gr.1 SA Oaks(3rd).  Of course, with a late running style, it would be virtually impossible to go undefeated...unless you have Zenyatta.  

Winning a gr.1 race is rarely easy.  From Blind Luck's perspective, she was much the best yet still barely won by the slimmest of margins.  From the perspective of Eveing Jewel, she worked out a perfect trip stalking a moderate pace and saving ground coming into the stretch, but still couldn't get the bob.

I know some suggested that Blind Luck could have been tough in the Derby.  While I agree that from a talent standpoint she would have fit, a 20 horse field in torrential mud would have posed many challenges.  In my opinion, Hollendorfer was spot-on in choosing the Oaks; even then, with the wide trip, Blind Luck just got up.  

I would be very surprised if Hollendorfer brings Blind Luck back in the Preakness or Belmont.  I would have to imagine that by having to run an extra 20 yards the Oaks took something out of Blind Luck.  Hollendorfer knows he has a very good filly, and there's no need to push things.  Rachel was the first filly in 80 years to win the Preakness because she was a very, very special 3 year old.

As an aside, I think Devil May Care would have had her hooves full with Blind Luck and Evening Jewel.  The fillies Devil May Care ran against last year in New York, and this year at the FairGrounds and Gulfstream were not particularly strong.  I suppose she has an outside shot in the Derby, but she's stepping way, way up in class.

Interesting comments. I agree with GunBow that Rachel is not the same Rachel of last year. Yet I agree with Draynay that she ran a pretty good race and got beat by a nostril. I think she ran a better race than the New Orleans race. This was not a slow race. So they may retire her, or give it one more shot.

I am sticking with Looking At Lucky, Sidney's Candy, Ice Box and Devil May Care for the Derby.

Setsuko's exclusion from the Derby doesn't look so tragic now.  And few would have made anything of his exclusion had Lucky and Caracortado not had trouble in the SA Derby and Setsuko run 4th.

Setsuko is a strapping, grand looking horse, but he really is more of a plodder.  He could only run 2nd to Alphie's Bet in a weak Sham, and though he improved in the SA Derby he was still crushed by Sidney's Candy and was only a length or two infront of Lucky and Caracortado even though those two had terrible trips.

I suppose there will be worse horses to bet in the Belmont.  By that point, who knows how many of the top contenders will still be around.  But at least right now, Setsuko looks more like a "tease", and at best might be like Strodes Creek in 94' and run 3rd.

The below is who I feel will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the Derby (along with some key information I learned during my analysis of the Field that helped me come to the decision I made regarding 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Place).  I am probably not as knowledgeable as some Posters are on this Forum regarding picking horses.

1st-  American Lion    The Owners of American Lion finally got him off of the synthetic surface in California and onto the dirt when they sent him to the Illinois Derby.  American Lion then proceeded to show that he runs best on dirt.  American Lion has some speed, and his speed should help keep him out of traffic trouble.  American Lion is by Tiznow, and Tiznow was a very "gritty" horse who happened to like the surface at Churchill Downs.  American Lion is a February foal, and therefore, he is one of the older horses in the Derby.  Tiznow colts are known to get better the older they become.  Pedigree wise, American Lion has both In Reality and Seattle Slew on the top part of his Pedigree, and Secretariat on the bottom part of his Pedigree.  In Reality was one of the few male descendents of Man O'War.  American Lion should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.

2nd-  Ice Box    Ice Box is a closer.  In the Florida Derby, there was a very high pace in the early part of the Florida Derby, and then the race "fell apart" in front of Ice Box.   Ice Box proceeded to close strong and take advantage of the race "falling apart" in front of him.  There will be a significant pace at the beginning of the Kentucky Derby, and the race will probably have some "falling apart."  This will aide Ice Box and his style of racing.  Pedigree wise, Ice Box has Secretariat and Seattle Slew on the top part of his Pedigree.  Ice Box's Pedigree is unique because he also has Secretariat on the bottom part of his Pedigree.  Ice Box should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.  

3rd-  Stately Victor    Stately Victor comes into the Derby with a very good Form.  During the Bluegrass Stakes, Stately Victor showed a good "closing kick."  Stately Victor finished the last part of the Bluegrass Statkes very strongly.  Pedigree wise, Stately Victor is by Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer Mare.  Therefore, upfront in his Pedigree, Stately Victor has a lot of Speed on the top part of his Pedigree, and a lot of Stamina on the lower part of his Pedigree.  Additionally, Stately Victor has In Reality on both the top part and the bottom part of his Pedigree.  Stately Victor should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.                            

2009 HOY is now officially proven to be a joke. When you vote with your heart and not your mind this is what happens. I still like RA but she's nowhere near the horse Zenyatta is.

CV

  Rachel looked superb pre-race. Since she looked so good I have think that she is just not that good as a 4yo. She was ready to run, she wanted to run. She's getting challenged more this year and she doesn't like it. I believe she over exerted last year against the boys and doesn't want to feel like that again. She's not really digging down. In my opinion she was ready to run, There are no excuses with her conditioning or the jockey's ride. The chances of Rachel putting forth the effort to compete at the caliber that they want her to reach is slim. I say that's it's time to breed. She has the talent so just match her to proven high class stallions that were able to dig deep in their careers to consistantly pull out hard fought victories. She could still win some races but the top Grade One races are going to be tough to win. It's not worth it. She will be more valuable going to breeding now.

RA still hasn't won a race against her own kind that were G1 winning fillies or mares. She's exposed as beating males who just weren't that good. RA sets history again becoming the first reigning (although it was the wrong choice) HOY to be whipped their first two outings the very next year. RA 100% against so-so horses in 09, and 0-fer against so-so horses in 2010.  

Jason Shandler did say RA would lose three times this year. Oh my bad he was talking about Zenyatta.

"Why isn't Rachel 100% by now? She's been jogging since early January, training since late January and had a race March 13th followed by 7 weeks of strong works.  And this is still not enough?"

Gunbow,

You've written the question I think everyone is asking. I remember reading that Rachel's former trainer, Hal Wiggins, brought her back after a four-month layoff and she embarked on her winning campaign.

One wonders what he did that made a difference?

Or perhaps, last year's racing just took a high toll.

Maybe they should call Hal Wiggins in for a consult?  

Say it ain't so nay nay. RA gets beat again in a mere G2 race. This is your hoy? best Filly/mare ever? She's been beaten way too many times to even be considered. What we have is a horse who's connections took advantage of weaker competition and they created an illusion of a "superhorse" and some especially the nay nay fell for it hook line and sinker. She's really not beaten much of anything. Those she beat haven't gone on to do much since she beat them and those who did won weaker races anyway. RA exposed. 2009 HOY was the biggest mistake in the history of that voting!!

Thats the difference between a horse that is trained--and a horse that is owned--a month ago Asmussen, on the Stein Show, says "Rachel isn't Rachel, yet..."....more poignant comments today, and I applaud that--the owner ran the show instead of the other way around--the luster is off of a matchup--now, it's just "win a race..."....

 This year the race is wide open. I do not like Lookin at Lucky because of the p.p. Sidneys Candy I

loved but because of the p.p. and to much speed inside of him I can't even put him in my gimmicks.

Here is what I will do seeing the track will be sloppy. I like Stately Victor with Conveyance and Ice Box and the filly Devil may Care. I will also through in Jackson Bend, Super Saver, and Lookin At Lucky into some of my Superfectas.

Good luck to everyone, and see you at the windows to collect.

I agree with your posts about Rachel, gunbow and Dr Drunkinbum. but I think her three year old season will always put her in the top tier of fillys and not the second tier. It was that amazing. Zenyatta will be listed as one of the top racehorses of all time, boys or girls.

Blind luck ran lights out from 14th back. Another Zenyatta maybe???? That was one impressive race.

I agree with your posts about Rachel, gunbow and Dr Drunkinbum. but I think her three year old season will always put her in the top tier of fillys and not the second tier. It was that amazing. Zenyatta will be listed as one of the top racehorses of all time, boys or girls.

Blind luck ran lights out from 14th back. Another Zenyatta maybe???? That was one impressive race.

When the G1 races come Rachel will be ready.  She looked great today. Her Beyer will tell the story just like her time did.  She is just about ready folks !!! Here comes Rachel !!!

Derby is wide open now with defection of Eskendereya due to injury. With rain coming who is the mudder or mudders? Favorite and second favorite have lousy post position but good enough runners that they could overcome this fact. My choice, however, is American Lion due to his breeding and the fact that I think he is coming into his own now and the Tiznows are late developers mostly, a few exceptions. Dublin is always there at the wire so he should not be overlooked and for some reason I like Backtalk to suddenly show up and turn into his daddy. As for RA...well sometimes when a filly turns 4 she regresses in her running and starts dreaming of hooking up with those boys she was once beating...that could be what is happening with her. I also am afraid that Jess Jackson was abit too heavy handed with her race schedule and it may have taken way too much out of her. If that is the case then we will have to wait and see if she comes back into form but whether she does or not I still believe she would not beat Zenyatta, she was always too much horse for RA.

Zookeeper, Albarado gave up the mount on Noble's Promise when he chose to ride Endorsement in the Derby instead...

draynay

Open your eyes......The girls ran a quarter of a second faster and their eyeballs were dragging on the ground.  They were going ALL OUT.....Arson Squad won by more than two lengths and virtually had the race won at the 1/16th pole.  That's why you don't get it as a handicapper. You really don't know how to evaluate time in a race.

It's also interesting to note that four of those stellar G-1 horses your girl dusted last year finished in the last four spots in the Alysheba.  

Mike Relva:

You were asking me what you think Draynay's next excuse would be, read his 11:00 PM post.  We should have known all along.......Rachel is waiting for a G-1 race before she fires.  LOL

Jason, did you forget that deep closer on an off track just last year...MTB??  I'll take Ice Box/Mission Impaz on top.  Lucky couldn't get through the traffic in his last, how's he gonna do it in a 20 horse field?

But if you still think a 2004 Smarty / Lionheart 1-2 all the way around race is more likely, put Line of David and Conveyence on top, or if you think David will scratch use American Lion.

Lucky = over the top

Draynay keep on hyping.  I watched the race on video again and what really got my eye is how many times Calvin used the whip on Rachel while Kent was hand riding Unrivaled Bell.  No I don't think Rachel will be coming back after being cooked last year.

Lazmannick,  You are putting a "Smackdown" on Mr. Dray again.  Give him all you got. He deserves everything you dishing out.

No, that nice little filly isn't another Zenyatta! Blind Luck reminds me of Megahertz! Great track today! Great battles! Rachel ran well--but--just like the Loiusiana race--she was collared early in the stretch--she didn't have that spurt she had last year--c'mon, Dray--you know what I mean! Rachel Alexandra The Great kicks clear and holds on--that's her style! NOT gets caught and battles on---Asmussen is right--she's not the same horse--Dray I hopt you're right--but I fear what I see is a different horse....

LAZMANNICK you forget that 2009 was 2009 and we're in 2010 now^^'' Some horses have a hard time keeping their top form. And if you want to use your logic, you class Summer Bird in the same weak spot? If Yes, then he finished thirs in the Classic...so you'll have to say that Zenyatta beat a weak field too?

And using your same logic that horses are always the same...well..Gio Ponti got beat at Dubai by a horse who got beat the year before by Asiatic Boy and....Asiatic Boy got beat in the Woodward by Rachel

How do you explain that? Unless you realize that some horses have a hard time keeping their top form

To all of the Rachel bashers--go home! That is one hell of a filly! She was not overrated--far from that! My Derby plays: I am boxing five in the exacta: Lucky, Stately Vic, 'Lion, Make Music For Me (make my day!) and Sidney...also playing 'Lion, 'Music, Sidney WPS as I'm a wimp and love to have a shot at cashing SOMETHING--LOVE American Lion! Love him! He was too amped up at Santa Anita--if he can relax--he'll get the distance! All I can say is Tiznow!

I have to say that after this past month with RA training so good and the bullet works and Asmussen saying she was training crazy good and being baack to form and after all that and todays loss,  and they havent' come to grips yet, that she may not get to her old self again. Are they in denial? I say call Hal Wiggins out of reirement or retire her with her dignity.

Before I get to my Derby picks, I'm not happy with the way Calvin Borel rode Rachel or the filly he road in the Oaks. I think Rachel lost because of him.

Derby picks: For me it was a toss up. I've liked Jackson Bend since last year and think he will be in the top 3. My other two picks are Conveyance and Mission Impazible.

helsbelles,

Thank you! I forgot about that. Duh!

      Dear Zookeeper ,That must have been a Type-O , My screen Name is Pedigree Shelly :) Anyways I meant to say you never know if one of our female stars might succumb to injury , heaven forbid ! I'ts nice to see new up and comers like Devil May Care and Blind Luck ,so when RA and Zen do retire the sport may not feel so empty !!

1979: Affirmed lost his first two races, to Sure Fire and the dark chocolate Radar Ahead (good horse)--Affirmed won his next seven and HOY...

Enough of the hoy bashing.  Both Z & RA had incredible years and both deserved a championship.  The voters spoke and the year has passed.  Nothing in 2010 effects their 2009 campaigns.

Blind Luck is another phenomenal filly.  Hope her connections continue to showcase her across the country thrilling race fans everywhere.

I don't understand the low esteem for this years crop of 3yo.  Rather than subpar I think they are a very good group, especially the CA horses and Dublin. Esky may well be a superstar and hopefully he will be back to try and prove it, but I think he'd have had his hands full Saturday.  Regarding handicap numbers they are developed by talented professionals much closer to the sport than I am, but I can't help but wonder if their disdain for synthetic surfaces may not be reflected in their numbers.  At any rate I'm going with LAL, SC, NP Ice & Dublin.  Good luck to all.    

Sidney's Candy

Looking At Lucky

Ice Box

Super Saver

Conveyance

Speed  in  the  slop.

Draynay has turned this into a Rachel thread  when it is suppose to be about Derby picks.  If Devil May Care wins the Derby people will soon forget about Rachel.  I am going with Lokin at Lucky, Devil May Care and Super Saver.  

DRAYNAY : Before today's race, you kept talking about how a 90% RA will blow away this field.  You keep forgetting what you said, or is it that you can't admit that you're wrong about RA ?  I told you before, she'll never win a race this year, she's not the same, she's a Stardom Bound like horse.  She's done, Jackson is going to retire her before she gets hurt by pushing her to get her to the same form as last year.  Just give it up, post your comment that you were wrong about RA.  No one hates RA, everyone just wants you to admit you don't know anything about horse racing :)

You kept talking about the splits again, the race is over, she got beat cleanly by a horse she should've beaten by many many lengths.  What is up with you and the splits, who cares if they ran faster than the boys, you were hyping she would win and well, she DIDN'T.  And she won't win another race again this year if she ever races again.

And to clarify, I don't think Rachel ran poorly in the La Troienne or the New Orleans Distaff for that matter.  She's still one of the top older fillies or mares.  However, she's not where she was last year.  

I was expecting a big leap of improvement 2nd time out.  She ran better, but something is clearly missing.  However, I don't necesarilly think Jackson should just close camp and call it a career.  

It's possible, although very questionable now, that Rachel will take another and larger step forward 3rd race out.  And even if she doesn't, I still think she can win some decent races and make some nice money.  However, would Jackson want to run her if she's not "RACHEL"?  And if Rachel isn't putting in top effort or simply just doesn't have her A game anymore, why push her?  

Jason : I wish you luck with NP, but I would have to pass as I just can't see him having the speed to get in a good position.  I don't know if Willie M will make it out of the 3 hole.  I'll stick with IceBox and LAL and will play them in the exotics with Dean's Kitten, SuperSaver, Make Music For Me and possibly Awesome Act, Stately Victor and Dublin.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow, I hope one of the bloggers hit it big tomorrow (I really mean that but of course I'm hoping it's me hehe.)

LAZMANNICK : LOL on that excuse, I saw his post and I thought, is this guy for real ??  He went from RA will win this at 90% ready to talking about the splits ??  Unbelievable.

As for IceBox, I hope JoseL doesn't try to gun him out of the 2 hole, I hope he stays back and gets clear going wide.  Unless it's a wet fast track, all of the speedballs are going to tire and and will cause traffic for a lot of the stalkers so I'd like for JoseL and GoGo to take the outside route. Churchill Downs has a very long stretch and they can easily make up ground.  If it's wet fast, I'm looking at putting the front runners up on top of IceBox and LAL playing the fitty cent trifectas.  I think SuperSaver, American Lion, Sidney's Candy and Line of David will have easy fractions if it comes up wet fast and may be hard to overcome.

GOOD LUCK to all tomorrow and looking forward to the reactions on Sunday's blog.  I won't be back until Sunday as I know I'll be out drinking Sat night, I just hope it's on a good note and not drowning my sorrow LOL.

The KY Derby is today and I think it is possibly the hardest derby to handicap in twenty years. I look at these posts and see that you are all STILL yapping about Rachel and Zenyata. AMAZING.

Mission Impazible all the way.    The rail between the gate and the first turn is going to be a swamp.  

Lol. Rachel ran a sub 143 at Churchill.  Let me know how many horses ALL YEAR at Churchill do that.

I remember Affirmed had a little trouble starting off his racing at 4 and he was one of the greatest ever. But things worked out pretty well for him.  Relax, Rachel is getting better the real running starts in June.

Yes Lazmmanick I am sure the trainers for Macho and Bullsbay were worried about being FULLY cranked for the G3 Aleysheba.  Right... are you new to racing ?

DRAYNAY

As usual,a spin when it doesn't work out the way you predict it. You said few days ago that no problem with RA winning the race. I thought she would win,I'm saying I'm wrong. Guess you're never wrong!

Rachel is still and will always be 2009 HOY.  If Zenyatta wants to be HOY she will have to show up to Churchill and prove she is all that and when she does finally show up to Churchill she will get whipped and whipped good.  There is a REASON she has never raced at Churchill, Belmont or Saratoga.  The time she ran at Oaklawn tells me all I need to know.  She is simply too slow.  The clock doesn't lie. 150+ won't cut it at the big tracks and she can do no better.

DRAYNAY

Look,I don't hate RA like you do  Zenyatta. It's her connections that I don't like,but the fact is she's cooked from last year. Didn't you READ WHAT HER TRAINER SAID,he's admitting she has a hangover from her eight races. Last year,against the same horses' yesterday,no problem for her!

JODIE:

Are you out of your mind? Your comment saying it's "justice" for Jackson getting HOY. My disdain for RA's connections run deep,but to act as if your pleased about RA's  decline,you should be ashamed!

My top four - any order

American Lion (can't jump off now)

Ice Box

Looking at Lucky

Jackson Bend

Even though I  think he has no chance - Backtalk is one of the few with solid wins in the slop.  Could be another MTB.

My vote for best comment in this blog:  TJLovesTiz's with:

Rachel didn't win because Draynay keeps touting her.

CLASSIC!!

Jason,

 I like most of your picks, but I can't get on the NP bandwagon. I just can't see him getting the extra furlong. Lookin is the best in the field and I'll key him on most tickets. I really like Super Saver but I am dismayed at his current odds. I was hoping for over the M/L. Underneath I'll be using several horses I hope will be high odds. They are in no particular order: Ice Box, American Lion, Sydney, Statley V, DMC, and Mission I.

 In reality, if this wasn't the derby I wouldn't play this race. There are too many horses that I can't draw the big red line across their names.

Rachel's loss left over 100,000 fans in stunned silence.  Same with the fans at home.  No one can say she didn't try.  But eyeball to eyeball, Unrivaled Belle took the edge.  I feel last year's campaign, as sensational as it was, wore her out.  It was a difficult task to ask of a filly.  We all saw her after the Woodward last year, and knew she was worn down.  I hope she can still come back, but I feel so sad that she may never be the same horse.  As magnificent as she was in 2009, 2010 may show her greatness was squandered by her owner.  

Tornado and flash flood warnings today..what else will CD have to deal with?  I'm staying with Stately Victor.  Well bred, great style, and a good post.

I only bet the longshots...last year I had the superfecta...in order...behind MTB!!!

For what it's worth, Ragozin sheets say Dublin is the fastest horse in the race.  I've gone with Sydney's Candy, Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box.  Conveyance looks great but I can't think he'll get 10 furlongs.

Pletcher admitted that Discreetly Mine's Louisiana Derby performance was compromised by a workout in which "he gallaoped out way too far and way too fast," six days before the race in the Dave Grening article in Saturday's Racing Form. As a bit of an ironic twist, it was also pointed out that Pretty Discreet won the Alabama Stakes Grade 1, 1 1/4 miles over a sloppy track by 8 lengths at 42 - 1. Discreetly Mine's odds, as of yesterday, were 42 - 1. Will history be repeating itself? Good Luck, folks!

I've been on "Lucky" since the juvenille and Im not hopping off him now hes been working great and its about time for him to get a lucky trip!!!

One of the best betting races you will ever see if you can pick the winner of course. I am going with AWESOME ACT to get the job done today but will be playing with Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box. Best of luck from thederbydream.com. Hope your dreams come true today.

Already over an inch of rain this morning. Thinking is it moves out by late this morning or midday. We'll see. If we have a rain like the one last summer a Derby cancelled by weather??????

Forget mudder, we need a Michael Phelps. Really though if any super can manage this track it's CD's. Trouble is the races start shortly.

Rachel is showing the signs of not having Hal Wiggins as her trainer.

She's much bigger, more robust. It wasn't the 8 races she ran, against the likes of Macho Again. It was the Preakness that took a solid effort. There was a REASON her former owners didn't want to subject her to the rigors of running against the boys in the TC races.

She was not handled properly in her 'off' time.

Dray, you liked Amen Hallelujah because IEAH bought a piece of her and Dutrow is her trainer. Stan made a big mistake selling part to them. He's probably going to need some of his own pain management skills today.

Longwaytomay

  Yachety yach yach yach yap, yappitty yap Rachel. Yachety yach yach yach. Yappity yap yap yap Zenyatta. It's horse racing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And Rachel just ran !!!!!!!! Make a list of which horses we should talk about and we'll try to obey. Yachety yach, don't talk back.

GUNBOW,Laz, Mike,   I truly enjoy your posts, they are so full of great insight.

I want to ask you a question?  Do you think we will ever see a race between Rachle and Zenyatta?  Do you ever forsee JJ entering this year in the gates with Zen?

Or do you forsee him continueing to dodge this meeting up?

Another favorite left in the dust - St.Nicholas Abbey up the track in the 2000 Guineas. He never appeared to be a factor.

1 Lucky - weakens late

2 Ice Box strong near wire, money spot

3 Noble's Pr - class, right there for money

4 Super Sav - stops

5 Line of Dav - stops

6 Statetly Vic - sire not tops, Pr rd, way back

7 American Lion - stops

8 Dean's Kitt. turf, way back

9 Make Music - Pr-rd must show more

10 Paddy O - turf, a            throw

11 Dev My Care - Oaks fillies

better, weakens

12 Convey - best of speed, weakens late

13 Jackson - has class, top 5

14 Mission Imp - top 5

15 Discreet - will fade

16 Awesome Act - stamina NG, will fade

17 Dublin - figures better than LAL, the choice

18 Backtalk -  once good, not today

19 Homeboykris - way back, throw

20 Sydney - spends too much early, fades late

My final top four:

Lookin at Lucky

Mission Impazible

Jackson Bend

Backtalk

I will throw in Super Saver on a few and Dublin...

Good Luck to ALL...

You guys are going to love me.  I am going for Line of David.  I think this year will be another long shot, and with the rain and all, everyone has a chance.  I don't see where lookin at Lucky is so great.  He had a good last year, but his works haven't been all that fast, not that he can't go faster but even Baffert says the works are what he is looking for, but not overly fast.  He also recently lost.  Yeah he was boxed in, but he still lost.  I don't think he is as great as everyone seems to think.  Good luck though.  

Read'em and weep,"AND THE WINNER IS,THE ENVELOPE PLEASE"....AMERICAN LION- TIZNOW sire, the other picks,Mission Impazzable,Awesome Act and the one I couldn't overlook Icebox-Pulpit sire.Probably catch hell over the picks but while others are turning the page of the racing form I'll be at the window collecting

Yes Draynay we all know that they are saving themselves for the Breeders Cup just like your other favorite.  LOL

1 Lucky - weakens late

2 Ice Box strong near wire, money spot

3 Noble's Pr - class, right there for money

4 Super Sav - stops

5 Line of Dav - stops

6 Statetly Vic - sire not tops, Pr rd, way back

7 American Lion - stops

8 Dean's Kitt. turf, way back

9 Make Music - Pr-rd must show more

10 Paddy O - turf, a            throw

11 Dev My Care - Oaks fillies

better, weakens

12 Convey - best of speed, weakens late

13 Jackson - has class, top 5

14 Mission Imp - top 5

15 Discreet - will fade

16 Awesome Act - stamina NG, will fade

17 Dublin - figures better than LAL, the choice

18 Backtalk -  once good, not today

19 Homeboykris - way back, throw

20 Sydney - spends too much early, fades late

Unrivaled Belle and Rachel Alexandra both earned 103 Beyer speed figures from yesterday's La Troienne performance, a bit less than the 105-106 Dray predicted.

Rachel is carrying more weight this year. I wonder if that is a factor in her inability (so far) to match her 2009 performance?

The Mine That Bird Effect is even stronger than I thought it would be.  The "longshots" are underlays and the morning line favorites are huge overlays.  Lookin at Lucky at 8-1?  Sidney's Candy at 10-1.  Best value by far.  I liked both Lucky and Sidney but not at short prices with their posts.  But at these odds?  Too good to pass up.  The value is in the morning line favorites.  One of the longer morning line shots could still win, but their odds don't offer much value anymore.

Dray is right.

Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen had no interest in winning a $400,000 race infront of 116,000 people.  They had no interest winning on the 2nd biggest day(according to attendance) of the year.  They had no interest winning on the biggest weekend of the year. In fact, I will go as far as to say that they were trying to lose.  The logic is clear.  They have to lose now in order to win later in the year.  You can't win in June if you win in late April.

   I was just at an old-time news store (actually sells fountain sodas and cigars). A guy walked in to buy a cigar, saying "It's

Derby day, have to get my cigar." I asked him who he liked, he said Dublin would win. The Derby is great, so many people are interested in it. I'm rooting for Lookin at Lucky, hope he can break well. Hoping all get a clean trip.

    GunBow, your analysis of Rachel A and the race was Excellent. I esp enjoyed your recap of last yrs races.  

    I think she looks good, just not quite there yet. No excuses, she finished 2nd, but carrying top wt, being that close twice, it's not like she's fading to 3rd, 4th, etc at the finish. Hopefully just needs a little more time...You're still my favorite, Rachel Alexandra :)

SLEW:

Last year were you blogging that RA was racing too much? I was.

DRAYNAY

This is your typical pattern,to attempt to deflect attention. Try all you want with the Zenyatta nonsense,everyone seen yesterday what happened with RA. BTW,NP's trainer prior to the Apple Blossom referred to Zenyatta as "RACING ROYALITY".

SODAPOPKID

Thank you! I also enjoy your posts as well. I have great respect for RA (and any horse),but don't think we will see a race between her and the great Zenyatta. Very suprised regarding the result yesterday.I've stated several times last yr. on this blog and others she was being asked for too much. Her first race back I understood the loss,yesterday no way!

GunBow

You're a scream.  Lots of luck today.

GunBow,

You surprise me! A little sarcasm coming from you? Must be due to Derby fever. Very funny!

I'm keeeping the same selections,NP or SC for the win. However,with the weather wouldn't be suprised with whoever wins today. It's wide open.

Could explain to me the odds on Homeboykris.  I have never seen something so ridiculous.  How he is not the longest shot on the board, and i mean long, is stupifying.

Super Saver - Awesome Act - Ice Box - Lucky

backup exacta box: 6-14-15-17

Dave,

   Joe Torre has ALOT of fans, lol...

Everybody,

     Just remember this song during the race:

www.youtube.com/watch

As the horses are heading out to the track I reluctantly threw out Sidney's Candy and Dublin.

I have small win wagers on Lucky, Super Saver and Mission Impazible.  Other tickets with Devil May Care, Noble's Promise and Jackson Bend.

I felt like just drawing names out of hats.

Hmm... It took Dray 5 posts before he even mentioned Zenyatta. The Rachel bashing started waaay earlier... Just an observation...

Congrats to Super Saver, The amazing Calvin Borel, and to Mr. Pletcher!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well Dray, more crow for you to feast on. Noble's Promise couldn't sustain his bid, and Pletcher gets his Derby.

"150+ won't cut it at the big tracks and she can do no better."--draynay

2010 Apple Blossom's time = 1:50.71

2010 Kentucky Oaks time   = 1:50.70

Here's another fun fact:

Blind Luck and Evening Jewel were running flat out at the finish. Zenyatta won galloping under a hand ride with her rider sightseeing.  

You should stop right now, dray. Your comments are simply foolish and mean.

So with Super Saver, Buckpasser really came through again.

Nice runs by Ice Box and Paddy. Too far for Noble. Too bad about Lucky's post position. He got absolutely hammered by somebody in yellow silks. Who was that?

Calvin is just schoolin these jocks out there.  He got the rail trip again??!! Martinez could have taken the rail with Noble's Promise, but he didn't.

The great generation of jockeys with Pincay, Eddie D., McCarron, Stevens, Bailey, etc are gone.  The next generation of leaders are still in their earlier years, and it's clear they haven't  developed into "money riders" yet.  Thus, it's up to Calvin to school them, and he's done it 3 of the last 4 Derbys.  

Everyone is so afraid of the rail.  And even though they know Calvin will be coming up on the rail, they still don't have the stones to get in his way.  But boy does Calvin have the stones!

And it was a great ride.  Super Saver broke well and Calvin allowed him to get up there in 2nd, in the clear, before taking him back on the rail.  From there, they didn't have a horse infront of them until Conveyance started backing up.  And after moving just to the outside of Conveyance on the turn, Calvin pushed Super Saver right back on the rail.

Super Saver ran well, but he was breathing fire down the stretch.  I'm not expecting a big speed figure.  

But this Derby is really about the human stories.  Calvin.  Mr. Pletcher.  I guess he's now 1 for 28, but that 1 must be so sweet!  It was bound to happen because he's just too good and he gets too many good horses.  Congrats to him and his team.

The owners, WinStar Farms, could not deserve it more.  They have put alot of money and effort into the sport, and they really look after their horses.  A class act.  I noticed Eoin Harty was applauding after the race even though his American Lion ran up the track.

As for the also-rans, it goes without saying Lookin at Lucky had a miserable trip.  He broke ok but instead of moving him up into the clearing behind Sidney's Candy, Garrett took a hold.  Big mistake.  He was knocked sideways a few jumps out and then got really slammed by Stately Victor.  That eventually dropped him next to last, which was a complete waste of his tactical speed.  Lucky tried hard and did put in a run, but even in the stretch he was ducking and diving to avoid drifting horses, including the Devil and Dublin.  He did very well to finish 6th.  If he checks out well, I think he will be tough in the Preakness, but so should Super Saver.

Noble's Promise tried hard, but the pedigree caught up with him that final eighth.  Ice Box had a ton of speed to run at and put in his trademark run to get 2nd.  Paddy O'Prado ran to his works, but after looking a threat midstretch didn't have any punch.  Make Music for Me, the last minute addition, closed decently for 4th.

The race was a disaster for Sidney's Candy, but it was his and Joe Talamo's doing.  After looking so calm and cool at Santa Anita, Sidney never looked comfortable before or during the race.  When he went into the gate his ears were pinned back. Post 20 could have worked out really well since only Conveynace went out to the lead, but Talamo, riding in his first Derby, overreacted a bit and hustled Sidney up when he really didn't need to.  Compare that to Calvin who made sure Super Saver broke well, and then took back when he saw he could work out a clear trip. Talamo didn't have to be that agressive as it turned out, but given those instructions he just didn't call an audible.

Instead, Sidney was up on a blistering pace.  Martin Garcia and Joe Talamo are promising young jockeys, but they rode like bug-boys today.  I think that many jockeys, particularly the young ones, simply get over-amped for the Derby.  Garcia and Talamo could have looked around, realized they were the only ones wanting the lead, and just backed things up.  They were all alone up front.  And maybe it felt like they were going slow, but their adreneline was just too strong?  In any event they cooked their horses.

But the pace alone doesn't explain Sidney's weak effort.  He was done on the far turf and didn't even last as long as Conveyance.  Noble's Promise went right on by Sidney.  Poor, poor effort and the pace is not a full exuse.

Super Saver had won on dirt, on slop, and was making 3rd start in the cycle.  I guess we see why he was bet down so much.  That dude with the $100,000 bet on him must be sick with happiness!

Horses that has prepped on dirt ran 1-2.  So much for the opinion that the synth horses had an advantage last year in the mud.  However, synth horses didn't run poorly.  Paddy o' Prado ran 3rd, Make Music for Me 4th, Noble's Promise(majority of races on synth) 5th, and the terribly unlucky Lookin for Lucky 6th.

I would have to think Super Saver and Lucky will be solid favorites for the Preakness.  But Noble's Promise and Paddy o'Prado should be better at the shorter distance.  With fewer horses, is it possible to expect Lookin at Lucky to get a clean trip.  And will Baffert keep Garrett aboard?  I wouldn't blame Baffert if he took Gomez off.  One race, ok; but 4 races?  

Wait.  Mission Impazible didn't win by 10?  What?

Goodbye Mike Relva.

You did this to yourself.  No one made you offer to leave the blog for 6 months if Pletcher won.  

Why do people go and put themselves out on a limb?  And it's not like we're throwing around real money on here.  

I like being on this blog.  I never would have put up the option of participating on this blog.  I don't think that I could ever be confident enough about anything in horse racing to do that.  Horse racing smashes egos.  I typically don't stick my neck out too far because I know this sport will chop it off.

"Don´t let Borel pass you at the rail"... =)

wow what a race by super saver i had a feeling but their was something that i didn't like about him. i was wrong my horses were 7th 8th and 11th.

draynay

NP ran pretty well i think you can say he's your kings bishop winner and/or dirt mile winner.

About half the field was beaten 20 lengths or greater.  Of course, all of those horses couldn't have been doing any better and should have had no problems with the mud.

How do you think John Sadler is feeling?  17th and 18th.  Ouch.

Awesome Act "exploded" into 19th.

Smarty Jones and his som Backtalk could have been bookends.  the former was 1st the latter 20th.

Devil May Care split the field in 10th.  I bet the Oaks looks alot better now.

Man, this is a tough sport.  Unless you're Calvin Borel, of course, and it's Derby day.

Throughout the day, the rail appeared to be the worst place to be.  Then Borel wins the last dirt race before the Derby on the rail.  Borel is just amazing on that Churchill rail.  Truly amazing.

Add me to the list of those that foolishly thought that surely, the other jockeys wouldn't let Borel have the rail AGAIN! Though I did have Super Saver boxed in an exacta with Paddy O...it was close, but no cigar! Borel is something else at Churchill! And congratulations to Mr. Pletcher and the Winstar connections!

Derby thoughts....

I cashed a win ticket on Super Saver and that was IT!  I guess I should be happy for that small favor!

Super Saver got the perfect trip and we know that counts for more than anything in a 20 horse field. Now instead of hearing that Pletcher is 0-24 his detractors can say he is "only 1 for 28" LOL!

Ice Box closed like a mad man for 2nd, but by then the field had slowed to a crawl. Honestly, they looked like drunken sailors coming down the stretch.

I thought Talamo got Sidney's Candy the best possible trip from the 20 spot, but he was too keen early on and boy I haven't seen a horse stop like that in the Derby in a long time. I hope he is OK.

Most disappointed with Mission Impazible but it didn't look like he got a very good trip.  

Lucky got the trip we expected he would.  Some day he'll get a clean trip and he'll be hard to beat.  

I thought Noble's Promise ran a good race, got a little tired in the end.  The distance probably isn't suitable for him.

So, again no Storm Cat backed horse wins the Derby, however both Super Saver and Ice Box are AP Indy grandkids.

So we are on to the Preakness.  I wonder how many horses will come out of this derby good enough to move on to Pimlico.  

Well Well Well..........Jason you might want to email me.... I have an awesome email for you to read!

So will Draynay finally SHUT up about Todd?

Never figured out why he was touting Devil May Care, Todd's filly.

More New Mexico connections similar to last year...

Bill, JJ, Todd that ought to really irritate Dray, but there’s a LOT of them all over the face of racing. I was very happy for Bill, he’s put a lot into the game, hasn’t forgotten his roots and know he was thinking about Karri and how happy she’d have been.

One thing I cannot believe is the jocks letting Calvin through on the rail AGAIN. For a while it was sticky on that path, but it resolved a bit.

GoGo needs a dose of courage I'm afraid. This dramatically taking up a horse when he gets in a slightly tight spot?? Not sure where that is coming from. I know Louie nearly got killed hitting the rail, must be it.

Dave, still need an explanation?

Well, just as I predicted Noble did take the lead at the top of the stretch and just as many of you predicted he couldn't quite hold on.

My Borel angle worked to a charm today.  Everyone at our table did it too AND we all did a shot when Borel won a race.  We all put 50 on him to win every race and 100 on him to win in the Derby and it paid 270 the 2nd Race 555 on the 9th race and 900 for the Derby. We all hit the Tri pool but NONE of us had the Super.  MAKE MUSIC FOR ME ??? If Noble hangs on for 4th we all had the Super...AHHHHHHH. Noble will be back to take the Preakness !  What a great day. By the way Jason good call on Awesome Act.

HELLO JASON,EVERYONE

Couple months ago I proclaimed that if Todd wins a Derby that I would refrain from posting here for three months. As a result of today will now be away until Aug 1

RANAGULZION,I'm giving Todd all the credit for winning today. You can rub it in all you want,cause unlike many,including one individual that PROMISED TO WEAR A PINK DRESS SHOULD ZENYATTA WIN THE CLASSIC I KEEP MY WORD. For those of you that command my upmost respect such as LAZMANNICK,GREG, TIM G, SODAPOPKID,ZOOKEEPER,and many others' that I feel lucky to trade opinions' I'll miss you. From the other side,those that only CARE ABOUT CASHING A  ticket and could care less about the horse,you won't be missed,period! My gf is from Asia and a part time model,lol so I'm planning another trip in the very near future to CA to visit. No problem in finding ways to pass the time away. lol  It's been a blast,good luck on your future picks.

The time of 2:04 and 2 is poor, even for that muddy track.  Times earlier on the card had been fairly close to normal.

What is more, they ran fast early, 22 and change, 46 and change, and 1:10 and change.  The last half took about 54 seconds!  That's almost unbelievably slow.  After a 4th quarter in 27, the final quarter was just 26 and 4.

I think we're looking at the lowest Beyer on record, even lower than Giacomo's 100.

    Well..... Derby 136 is now history ! Congrats to his connections and to all who bet him ! Thank God . I bet Ice Box to place ,another 50 yards and he would have won !

Dread: Neigh though I walk through the valley of dearth, I will fear no caustic remark. Good job with your RA/Derby handicapping! I'm convinced now that Molly was mishandled by her owner and put on a suicidal pace. Did make up alot of ground as an underlay. How's it feel?  

Well, they can't blame Calvin Borel for RA loss yesterday,  When he clearly brought SS to the finish line today.  So it was the horse on friday not the jock.

Thank goodness Ice Box got up for the exacta to turn a huge loss into a decent win.

Despite all his blowhard statements regarding Zenyatta, Draynay deserves some congrats.  I know he had some money on Calvin and his horse Noble's Promise ran a hell of a race.

One thing I've learned is that in a horse race with horses of even talent, bet on Calvin Borel.  That man has guts and is a terrific rider.  I don't care how many jockey eclipse awards others win, I think Calvin is the best in the business and I look forward to seeing him breeze into the HOF in the near future.

Householder said,

"She's just not been as fast as last Summer," her trainer Steve Asmussen, said after friday's loss.  "She ran a good race, but not a great race."

She ALSO didn't have the same trainer setting the foundation that she had last year. Perhaps her problem can be seen in Asmussen's mirror.

Some people on other blogs are commenting about the trouble Ice Box had.  Becuase he was so far back, I am not able to see what he was doing until the far turn.  Then, he had to briefly wait and then shuffle to the outside as a number of horses stopped.  

After that, things looked ok for Ice Box although he was still far back at the top of the stretch in 15th(chart).  Even with just an eighth to go, Ice Box was only in 11th.  He actually disappeared from the tv camera as he wound his way through the stragglers and then eventually was swung out to the far outside for his final surge inside the eighth pole.  

Ice Box had no business finishing 2nd given how far back he was coming into the stretch and given he still had so many horses to pass.  Obviously, the fact that just about everybody else in the field was staggering by that point certainly helped. But Ice Box was even further behind the leaders nearing the eighth pole than was Lookin at Lucky.  While Lucky got a tad tired late, Ice Box only got stronger and only Make Music for Me was moving anything like Ice Box was under the wire.

Lucky did tire that last sixteenth, but he had every right to.  He experienced another dreadful trip; Lucky has good tactical speed, and had things gone to plan he would have probably been 10th-14th and not 18th/19t earlyh. From there he could have made his big middle move and been at Super Saver's flank at the top of the stretch.  But having been bumped around so much and having lost so much ground early, when Lucky finished his strong middle move around the turn, he was still in midpack about 8 lengths off the lead. Lucky was not going to win having to close from that far back.  

Dr Drunkenbum,

The name of this blog is Triple Crown Talk. Last time I looked Rachel and Zenyatta were not entered. I could care less what happened with Rachel running and losing in a race the day before the Derby. She lost, get over it. I wanted to know who the good handicappers of this blog, and there are many, liked in the Derby. I would like to try and help eachother sniff out some winners, but there are too many who just want to talk smack about a race that will never happen. I gave out Super Saver today and I hope some listened, but for all of you who want to rehash the Rachel V Zenyatta debate, I hope you did not.

Does anyone else find it strange that Awesome Act is co-owned by Vinery, who also co-owned Friesan Fire--and that he also ran up the track in the Derby, when switching to the Vinery silks? Just an observation.

I think you're going to see a hell of a dual between Super Saver and Lucky in the Preakness, and then Ice Box is going to be sitting on a huge race come June 5.

As for the others, it's really tough to say--3 year-olds at this distance, in a field this large, can still be great horses who just didn't like mud in their face or weren't comfortable because of the size. Let's hope that the 3YO ranks stay healthy from here on out and that we have some of these guys back on the CD oval when the Breeders Cup rolls around.

I really hope that Pletcher & the connections of Devil May Care take her away from running with the boys.  It became fairly obvious that she wasn't going to be a factor, however, had she run the Oaks yesterday, I believe the winner wouldn't have been Blind Luck, but Devil May Care.  I don't think she's bred for a mile & a quarter or a mile & a half like the Belmont.  I think she just needs to go back the fillies, get stronger and then *maybe* face the boys.  You can't duplicate what Eight Belles did before the tragedy afterwards and you can't duplicate Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaing or Rags to Riches Belmont win.  It took a lot for RTR to win the Belmont, she fractured her leg on the next race and never returned to racing.  I like Devil May Care a lot, but she just was not up for the distance or the track or the boys.  She was up near the pace when she faded to 10th.  Keep her at a mile or less & she'll be much better than she was today.  Just my thoughts on today.  Also, one of these years I will learn not to bet against Calvin in the Derby.  What did y'all think about Calvin's comment that Super Savor will be a triple crown winner?

longwaytomay, I think Rachel needed the race on Friday to see where she was at physically & mentally.  It's not like when she lost to Zardana because she got tired, she lost by a nose, she just didn't put her head out far enough.  Losing by a nose (or head, whichever it was) is not bad for her.  Next race out, she'll be much improved and probably back to her old self.  Anyone who says otherwise doesn't know about racing. Just my opinion, of course.  I trust Asmussen to do the right thing for Rachel, as I do Jess Jackson.  They never made a bad move on Rachel last year and I don't think they are now.  After that long layoff, they needed to see where she was at in these last 2 races and they know she has to be 100% before they go meet Zenyatta, who will have to leave California to do it.

Mike Relva:

I think you were foolish to offer leaving the blog.  But personally I would rather you not leave.  You didn't sign a legally binding document.  You simply gave your word.  But what really does one's word on blogs like these count for?  

One of the reasons why we like this blog is because we can  handicap and make preidctions without necessarilly putting any money on the line.  So, if someone has a strong opinion but either does not have the money, are not close to a track, or don't like gambling they can still put their expertise on the line.  Then, if we are not correct, we lose a little face put not real money.

Mike, you had a strong opinion and took a strong stand-too strong of a stand.  There's lots of people on this blog who guarantee outcomes, make promises if they lose, and challenge other posters.  But in the end, because we have no real enforcement mechanism, these people are rarely held to task.  People make bold predictions because they know that people will eventaully forget or not care about it; and if they make a promise, like wearing a pink dress, who is actaully going to enforce it?

Mike, I for one would not hold it against you if you go back on your self-imposed ban.  I don't think you should have ever suggested it, but in the scheme of things it isn't a big deal.  Maybe Ranagulzion and a few others would hold it over your head, but I think the majority really don't care to see the ban enforced.  So what, you got a little carried away a few months ago and offered a silly proposition.  We forgive you.  This sport can spin anyone around and leave them not knowing which side is up.  But because we've all been there before, who better to forgive someone for being wrong?  

Gunbow, as usual great race analysis.  The final time WAS awful.  I looked it up, could this be right - the slowest time since Tim Tam in 1958?  

I am extremely happy for Todd, given the heartbreak of losing Eskendereya from the Derby and all the criticism he's taken.  He's a hell of a trainer and was quite cordial in victory.  The man works hard and is very deserving of all his success.  

I eventually took Sidney's Candy out of consideration for any betting because there was just too much going against him, from the post position to track conditions and a jockey with little experience in big races or Churchill Downs.  That said, I thought the horse would relax better on the lead and I never questioned his ability to get the distance. Now one has to wonder.

This was a hard race to handicap.  They say mud is the great equalizer.  Today it seemed like an extra quarter of a mile was the real equalizer.

I'm not real impressed with any of the efforts I saw today.  Ice Box closed hard after a poor trip, and  there was a rally by Lookin at Lucky, but the rest of the field was standing still by then.

In the end I'm not sure why Stately Victor was getting so much hype by people whose opinions I usually respect.  Same is true with Devil May Care.  Initially I said she was a toss, though I thought she would seriously challenge for the Oaks.  I threw a place bet in on her because so many people thought she might be Pletcher's best chance.  I need to pay more attention to my inner voice I guess!

Looking forward to the next few weeks as we get ready for the Preakness!

I have to give 'Meaux on Paddy o' Prado some props.  On the far turn, you could see that Meaux was all set to take Paddy towards the outside when he spotted Borel and Super Saver darting through on the rail.  Meaux immediately dropped Paddy towards the rail and followed Calvin.  And guess what, Meaux got 3rd.  Hey, if you can't beat Calvin, you might as well join him(or follow him in this case) and at least get a piece.

In terms of wagering, some real similarites between this Derby and 2006.  Like 2006, this year's Derby came on the heels of a 50-1 shot winning the year before.  As in 2006, bettors this year were skeptical of the favorites and put a surprising amount of money on the morning line longshots.  

In 2006, Sweetnorthensaint was the favorite at an usually high 5-1 while this year Lookin at Lucky at 6.5-1 was the longest priced favorite in history.  And the similarities extend to the two winners.  Barabro was 2nd choice(I believe, with Brother Derek a close 3rd choice) at about 6-1 while Super Saver was also 2nd choice at 8-1.

Draynay

CongRATs on the gazillions you won today.  It must be nice winning 900 on a Pletcher Derby winner.  And to think you won the tri and almost bagged the super.  Maybe now with all that cash you can afford to go to night school and take a couple of courses.....one in HUMILITY and one in HUMANITY.

SODAPOPKID

Hope you had a good day today and thanks for your post.  I enjoy reading your posts and I like you enthusiasm.  Do I think that Zen and Rachel will ever meet?  It's possible, but I'm beginning to doubt it.  I think they both should concentrate on their schedules and see what happens later in the year.  Personally, from what I've seen, Zen doesn't have anything more to prove.  I think they should retire her and then with racing's biggest star out of the picture her detractors will finally see how bleak the racing scene would be without her.  LOL

Mike Relva

Too bad you're leaving for awhile my friend, but you're a man of your word which in this day and age is priceless.  That's why you would probably be a lousy politician.  You're too honest.  I'll be looking forward to the odd e-mail.  We'll miss you.  LOL

Gunbow was right.  The field really did stagger through the stretch.  I also feel that if Calvin was on Ice Box, Zito would have had the winner, not Pletcher although I'm happy for him.....In looking at the NBC over-head, Ice Box's close reminded me of Mine That Bird's except he had to go on the outside.  If he took a rail trip, he would have been the winner and probably very emphatically......For the second straight year the Derby was the winner's first victory of the year and for the second straight year the Derby winner won with his third start.  What does this say aboout the 2010 and 2009 fields?

I said that for the second straight year the Derby was the winner's third start of the year.....actually, this is the fourth straight year.  LOL

I know there will probably be a separate blog to address Rachel Alexandra's race but there are a few things I want to say right now...

It is tough to bring a horse back to top form after a long lay off.  Especially true with fillies and mares.  Case in point? Last year Eclipse Award winner Informed Decision has come off a 5 month lay off to finish 3rd in her first 2 starts back. Stardom Bound, brilliant at 2 was never as explosive at 3 and retired after just 12 starts.

Rachel has not run a bad race.  Oh, these first two have not been "old Rachel", but keep in mind she has just run her 11th consecutive 100+ Beyer going back to November 2008.  This is REMARKABLE consistency. REMARKABLE.

Did that 5 race spell over last year take its toll?  Of course it did.  What happened to the colts that she faced in the Preakness and Haskell?  Summer Bird hasn't run since November due to injury.  Mine That Bird has yet to make his 2010 debut.  Musket Man was off for 9 months, won a minor stakes and has been second twice in his graded stakes races.

I'm not putting those horses down.  They are all quality horses but it does go to show you that there is a price to pay.

That said, Zardana and Unrivaled Belle are good horses that shouldn't have beat Rachel. However, both had to run the best races of their lives and both had to beat her with their highest ever Beyers.  Zardana has never won back to back, so her loss Friday was not that surprising.  There really is no knocking Unrivaled Belle.  She's lightly raced and looks to be coming into her best form.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, so many  horses retire at the end of their 3 year old seasons and we have the short sightedness to criticize Rachel Alexandra because she isn't at the top of her game at 4?

Get over it.  Get over her winning HOY last year, get over her being trained by Asmussen.  Get over her being owned by Jess Jackson. Whatever your beef is with her, get over it.  It's robbing you of the joy of having a horse like her still on the track today.  

Gunbow

   Look for Pleasant Prince in The Preakness and Setsuko in The Belmont. They could be the reason for the slower time and possible low Beyer in The Derby. Backtalk and Homeboykris did not deserve to be in The Derby. Backtalk stunk this year and Homeboy had no foundation. Devil May Care should have been in The Oaks even though she was better than quite a few entered in The Derby. Setsuko is not a synthetic or turf horse or a mile and 1/16 horse. He is a mile and a quarter to mile and a half dirt horse. I just wish he had a mile and an eighth dirt prep for The Belmont. Will have to trust Mandella to get him ready. Pleasant Prince is ready for The Preakness. His biggest obstacle will be Super Saver who wasn't over used this year and has a ton of natural stamina. Congratlations to The Greatest Derby jockey-Borel, and to a great future Derby jockey in Rosario. Congratulations to Mr. Pletcher and his entire barn. He is a great trainer and watch out for him now, with the monkey off of his back and working in his barn for peanuts.

I lost a lot of money on IceBox, I had 200 to win on him and it was so close for me, I knew he'd run his Florida Derby race.  I was hoping that Jose would've gotten him a lot closer on the backstretch.  I was really confused about the lead runners stopped the way they did as I thought the track came up wet fast.  That was the only reason I played SupersSaver.  I did hit the trifecta twice and a $10 exacta but I would've had the superfecta if IceBox had won.  I was hoping Make Music For me would get third as I had him for a $5 tri with IceBox and SuperSaver.  I made a decent profit today so it wasn't bad but it could've been a lot more.  One huge mistake I made was not playing Prado on my superfecta on the ticket where I had SuperSaver on top but it was a last minute bet and I put MMFM in the 3rd hole.  That was a 100K mistake!!

I did throw out Lucky in most of my best about 30 minutes prior to the start as the track had standing water and there was no way the Lucky could gun for the lead (if he did) and still win, I knew he'd encounter trouble again, not sure what the deal is with GoGo and I think Baffert should put Mike Smith on him from now on.  

I wasn't surprised that NP folded, he always runs that kind of race and I don't think he'll make any impact on the Preakness or Belmont either.  There's going to be fresh horses that will be going to the Preakness and Belmont.  IceBox and Make Music For me are my bets for the next triple crown races and I won't forget SuperSaver this time :)  I'll play LAL if they put Mike S. on him.  Mike Smith should be a good fit with LAL.  All in all it was a good day for me!

GUNBOW: Pretty good analysis of the race.  I gave up on IceBox around the turn as I couldn't find him on the TV, couldn't even yell when he got 2nd because he came up on TV like 2 feet to the wire lol.  All in all it was a good day for me hope it was for you too.

On to Maryland we go!!

DRAYNAY : Did you even bet on NP ??  I mentioned it before, all that hyping of NP being the winner even with the talk of sloppy track you were still saying he's the best.  I'm sure by now, you've jumped off the NP bandwagon and will most likely talk about SuperSaver as the superhorse and that he'll win the TC lol.

I'm not sold on SuperSaver quite yet, KD was a very taxing race and a lot of these horses will probably not run in the Preakness so most will be fresh horses that SS will be facing.  I hope IceBox's run didn't take much out of him as that's his style of racing and the shorter race hopefully will get him up for the win. One thing's for sure, he won't be 11-1 next time.

2:24 great post thanks ! Yes I had a great day and Super Saver winning the Derby didn't hurt my feelings at all.  Like I said before Borel will NEVER run another Derby that I don't have 100 dollars on his head to win. That guy put 100k on him and I have to be honest I was rooting him even as he passed a tired Noble.  But all things considered what a race by Noble.  I STILL WISH MUSIC didn't pass him but now do we have to hear ANYMORE talk about American Lion or Jackson Bend?  Super Saver got the best of Noble today but the track at the Preakness is a bit shorter and I like his chances.  Lol.  A great day! I liked 6 horses going into the Derby Noble, Ice Box, Paddy, LAL, Dublin, and Devil and they all finished in the top 10 not bad. The Tri tasted good but that Super would have been a dream come true !!!

RA ran with 103 beyers friday as did UB,  and CB certainly knows the track at CD, So, I am guessing that Assmusen and Jackson clearly can see now that RA was well in the means of the "back to her old self",  I think she ran a great race, the problem for her is she has got tougher competition now and she is going to have a more difficult time........I am not a big CB fan , but I am not going to see him take a fall when he is not at fault like JJ would like to put it on him.  The problem is the competition, the older females,  thats why JJ ducked them last year , I believe, because they sure are giving her a run for the money.

Best jockey and best trip...

...Calvin Borel.

Best Horse...Ice Box....what a run after a troubled trip.

Biggest heart...LAL...came back after nearly going over the rail x2.  Other runners would have quit.

Got 2 out of 3....Ice Box and Paddy.  Watched Stately Victor...he was trying all the way but was mobbed up twice and gave it up around the 1/8th pole.  It all was certainly a mad stampede, and a rough trip for most.  And congratulations to Pletcher for finally breaking the jinx.  (I wonder how many trainers have called Bo-rail for next year??)

Mike Relva- I will miss you and look forward to August 1!  Have a great summer.  You are a man of integrity.

Ah, hot coffee and lots of water! Did everyone else enjoy their Derby day as much as I did?  (I may have enjoyed a bit too much, boy I'm feeling it this morning!)

I heard Ice Box had was almost stopped just inside the quarter pole...can anyone confirm? He was so far back at that point, I didn't see anything.  Too bad for Zito if it's true, he was really moving at the end.

I just watched the race replay again, and I have to say that I feel so bad for Lucky. It's amazing to me that he finished 6th after his start.  I love that horse, there is NO quit in him! Baffert is the lucky one for having him in his barn, though it has to be frustrating to have a horse that gives his all every time and just can't catch a break.  They should give him a little break and bring him back for the summer...he is my Haskell and Travers horse. I hope he's okay after that nightmare trip!  

The final time was SLOOOOOOWWWWWW!  And as GunBow pointed out, the first half of the race was fast! Did the track get sticky with that 45 minutes of rainlessness?  Didn't look like it, but I know Chrchill dries quick.  

Mr. Pletcher enjoy this Derby win you deserve it.  Let me give you a hint on how to win the Derby more often. Make sure Borel is on one of your horses. Mr. Leparoux your were amazing yesterday and I had you in everyone of my pick 3's except one and it cost me BIG TIME.  I will not make the same mistake next year. Is it too early to pick the winner of the Derby next year ?  I want to make my pick right now before anyone else. I pick the horse Borel is on !!! Hey don't laugh it worked for me this year.

Great job Calvin and Super Saver!  My pick was Ice Box and he finished 2nd after a whole bunch of trouble...even slamming on the brakes at one point.  After all that, he still cruised on to take the 2nd spot.  I like this  horse and expect to see a lot more of him.

Missed the tri by one horse--left Romans out.

IT TOOK A CAJUN BOY FROM THE SWAMPS AND SUGAR CANE FIELDS TO GET MR. PLETCHER AND WINSTAR THEIR FIRST DERBY WIN.

Sorry for pretty boy Johnny V who gets the best of the best, and just cant get it done.

Loved how Robby A. was one of the first to ride up to C-Bo and congratulate him.

Seems like Kent Desx would have been happy for him.

Triple Crown winner in Super Saver. AP Indy on the bottom, he will run all day.

Although I LOVE Calvin and think he is an amazing jockey I can't help but think one of these days, he is going to be in an accident. It takes ALOT of guts to ride a horse cruising that fast THAT close to the rail. On the replay it looked like SS actually bumped the rail a couple times he was so close. All it will take is a misstep into that rail and...disaster...I hope it never happens........with that said...I am happy they all came home safe...

In regards to the track time...I fully expected it to be a slow time...the track was in horrible condition. If anyone watched informed decision..wow... talk about having to find a spot on the track with some traction.. can you imagine running in ankle sometimes knee deep mud??? The opening quarter was nuts...but I got to Nobles Promise his due....he did run a great race...I think his pedigree just doesn't have the stamina..although in the mud, everything is deceiving.. I had Paddy and Icebox boxed but I had Statly Victor instead of SuperSaver...close I guess.... all in all another wonderful day of derby coverage,history and the most beautiful horses on the planet..... Onward to the Preakness!

One more comment............How about General Quarters???? I think I was just as excited to see him win as I was to watch the derby. I was jumping up and down like a maniac. What a gutsy performance by the horse I feel is probably more loved by his owner/trainer than any other. A HUGE CONGRATS to McCarthy and GQ!!!!

I don't think I can point to a more textbook example of any 3 year old moving forward off every race, like Super Saver did through the prep season.  I have always been critical of Pletch, in his derby bids, but 3rd at Tampa @ 1 1/16, to the second at Arkansas @ 1 1/8, to this, was more than impressive.  The colt was clearly ready.  Honestly, I thought he gaffed by withdrawing Interactif, but hard to question anything now.

Secondly, I like Joe Talamo, but I agree with GunBow, that chasing a 46 and 1 in the soup was ludicrous.  On a nother note;  it looks like some of the El Prado's (Candy Ride's and Kitten's Joys, ect.) might benfit from getting of the Polytrack and Turf earlier, and on the dirt, in legitamate TC preparation; although props to Paddy O' Prado who ran well.

Noble's Promise was impressive, and he probably IMO would have won the race if it had been 9f.  I have questioned his pedigree at classic distance, but it may have been that he was just a little close to the early pace.

If Winstar is serious about a Triple Crown bid, change plans and keep a fresh Drosselmeyer out of the Preakness.  Although, if Zito doesn't take Ice Box to Pimlico, it is hard to imagine beating him in the Belmont, with another Five week rest.  The colt is a legitimate closer, is regally bred, and should be tough all year.

This is where it gets interesting with strategies; the fun and anticipation starts now.  I love these five weeks.

Most of my exotic tickets were tossed by Jackson Bend.

longwaytomay

  I was just joking with my earlier post. I understand your point but good luck getting people to not mention them here. It's a long standing, honored family tradition. And I agree with the talking smack nonsense. It's crazy. They're both great. It was a tough Derby to seperate the top 6 to 8. Congrats on your Super Saver pick. I won an exacta but I had Super Saver number 4 on my list so didn't key him as much as I could have. I went with closing style more. The tosses ran to form for the most part. Super Saver is tough and wil be a strong foe moving forward to the next one or two. He'll have tougher competition though than in The Derby. It was a weak field and the weather was a big factor. I'm actually more excited about The Preakness and Belmont than I was The Derby. I suspect that if Super loses The Preakness that they won't run him in The Belmont, and I expect him to lose The Preakness but a win is quite possible for Super. He's strong and has a lot of natural stamina.

Well Well i played Paddy O Prado and i had my fun,Calvin is great and was kind of leaning on the winner as well but said to myself no way can Borel pull this off 3 times,and 19 profesional jocks let him do it again,and i sat there eating crow.

longwaytomay says

"I could care less what happened with Rachel running and losing in a race the day before the Derby."

Sure, but you have to keep in mind that for a year now, all the talk (and I mean from EVERBODY connected with the sport )has been about how these two horses were going "save horse racing".

So unless Super Saver wins the Belmont and otherwise has a real shot at the  Triple Crown, we can expect the activities of Rachel and Zenyatta to trump anything else going on the track.

The Kentucky Derby is a great event, but once it's over, it's done. The Rachel/Zenyatta wars consume the passions of the fans 365 days a year.

The irony here is that far from "saving" the sport, the fans of these two (especially the Zenyatta followers)are actually ruining the sport for other followers who do not believe that the entire world of horse racing revolves around these two animals.

These days you cannot discuss any aspect of the sport in any venue without that forum becoming just one more opportunity  for Zenyatta fans to drag Rachel through the mud or visa versa.

did anybody see the trip ice box had? if he didn't get shut off he would have won with ease but hey that's horse racing.

Congratulations to Super Saver, Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm! That was a well earned victory by all involved.

Finally, we don't have to listen to the "1 for 28 monkey" on Todd's back. What a relief it must be for him!

What are the odds of the same jockey winning the KD 3 times out of 4? Monumental!!! unless the jockey is Calvin Borel. Amazing!

Loved to see WinStar Farm in the winner circle as owner/breeder. That organization is a class act and very deserving.

Although Super Saver was one of the favorites, it surprised me that we was able to pull it off. So much for my handicapping skills! Not so with the winner of the $100,000. contest. Congratulations to him also, what a score!!!

GunBow,

Great analysis, as always. I was hoping for a miracle for Lucky. It did not happen. His bad luck followed him all the way. I think he's a very good horse and I'm hoping that all these misadventures do not have a negative effect on his future races. There's only so much banging around a horse can take before he becomes fearful.

The biggest surprise for me was the good showing by Make Music for Me. I gave him NO shot and he comes in 4th after barely squeezing in the race??? I'm very happy for Alexis Barba, no longer unknown, hope she gets more good horses. She must be thrilled. Good job by her and Rosario. They should be proud.

Kudos also to Ice Box's and Paddy O'Prado's connections. Excellent effort!

BEST PART: all horses and jockeys came back safe and sound!

Gun Bow,

I do think the slow time in the Derby was due to the muck, for the most part. The final times for the sprints on Saturday seemed to be pretty on par with what they should have been, but it seemed to me that beyond a mile, the track took more of a toll on horses. I saw a couple of 8.5 fulong races run in 1.44 and 1.45, which, for that distance is crawling. On oaks day I think the track was still a bit tiring, but to a lesser effect, which is why we saw the slow 1.50.7 for Blind Luck. At that point horses could run slightly farther before tiring. If Pimlico is fast or even good I think we'll see a better final time that day.

I do agree with you on Ice Box, I didn't think he had a whole ton of trouble. If any horse had trouble it was Lucky. I seriously thought he got slammed into the rail when the secon horse came back and over and slammed him. Most horses would've given up after that, but he came back on to run up for sixth.

I'm such an idiot!!  I have been touting Super Saver ever since Wednesday and much earlier than that.  The study I did on pedigrees had Super Saver pegged all over it, the post position he drew was perfect, and he reacted just as I thought he would.  

I thought logically, Calvin can't win 3 out of 4 derbys right?!  Super Saver at 7-1?  Not enough value, don't bet him. What an error!

I had Mission Impazible and American Lion over many, and when I saw that they both were sitting next to each other the entire trip, it made my viewing very easy.  Coming around the far turn MI started to move and Flores started to push AL with him, they both made it to around 3rd or 4th as they hit the stretch, and had nothing left.  I really don't think AL like that slop at all.  He was acting up on the walk over to the paddock and I think he lost a lot of energy in his anxiety.  Oh well... SS and CB deserve congratulations!

Dray, Noble ran better than I thought, albeit a losing effort.

It is time I start betting with my head and not my heart!

Congrats to those who won, and what a derby it was!  Next year, can we please have a dry fast track?!

GunBow---I wondered about the final time of 2:04.2 as well, considering the other times for the day. It was similar to Smarty's 2:04 under sloppy conditions, but I think the splits for Smarty's race were slower?

There were so many possibilities for winning this Derby that our family did not bet this year, but it was great to see the horseracing headline in our D/FW newspaper this morning; "After So Much Frustration, Roses Smell Sweet For Texans". Congratulations to residents Casner and Troutt, and to former Texan, Todd Pletcher!

Dray, what table? Someone said your profile says you go to the Derby every year? When was the last time you actually went if ever? I bet you think you're too important to be in GA with the 'commoners' and you don't have the connections to get anywhere else. King of Beulah Park or River Downs? (not that there's anything wrong with them but they sure ain't CD)LOL

The way you badmouthed Todd? I was shaking my head at you picking DMC...maybe you forgot Todd trains her too. Your handicapping skills: chalk, pretty colors and the jockey. WOW what skill.

Dublin got squeezed, pushed way wide and didn't care for the mud, big horses don’t float over it they sink into it,  but proved he was NOT hurt going into the race, for those spreading that rumor.

Terry's inexperience may have hurt him a bit but he gave a decent showing, especially coming out of the 17 hole, when everyone was discounting him.  When you consider of the top 7 he was the ONLY horse out of the auxiliary gate? Not that bad.

Noble's Promise couldn't get the distance and neither can Sidney's Candy, Conveyance or a few others.

I think some of those would have been better off in the Preakness.

Lucky seeks out trouble, or his jock does. Noble's Promise caused several of the problems. His story of the 25 owners is a good story though.

The walkover looked like Exodus, holy cow almost as many people walking over or in the paddock as outside the paddock or standing along the rail.

Still bad weather today, but unbelievable the turn out and wagering yesterday in that slop. Still waterlogged.

Come on people, Rachel is day before yesterday's news 2009 not 2010. E-freaking-nough.

Mike Relva,

       Bravo for being a man of you word!  Enjoy your "vacation" from the Triple Crown Blog, See you back on August 1st, Maybe some comments on Mr. Pletcher, Mr. Borel, And Super Saver winning the Triple Crown?, Stranger things have happened, Be good...

MIKE RELVA,

I knew that you were a man of your word ...but I have to tell you that when this all started I didn't think i'd be missing your posts BUT I WILL.  Enjoy your hiatus Pal.  

Face it RA ran against weak competition last year. Summer Bird was a late bloomer like most 3 year old champs and also RA is facing older fillies and mares this year and the 3 year old fillies from last year are developing now. RA was just more precocious than the rest of her crop in 2009. Zenyatta is a superstar and they don't come along very often. Not since Formal Gold and he only won half his starts but he ran fractions that would have buried RA.

GUN BOW,

I agree that Lookin At Lucky needs a new jockey ...not because Garet Gomez is a bad jock (which he isn't) but because at this point he has a psychological barrier to overcome if riding LAL again.  I think that Bob Baffert should have gone for a new jock in the Derby for the same reason.

Dublin made a menacing wide move turning for home but did the hanging thing again while flattening out.  I think that Lukas should bypass the Preakness with him and freshen him up for the mid-summer Saratoga/Monmouth meets.

I think my post got lost in the internet outer limits.

Congratulations to everyone who picked Super Saver. Congratulations to Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel and Winstar. They deserve it. I was getting so sick of people asking Todd Pletcher how it felt to be 0-24. He handled it with grace and dignity. So this should shut everyone up thankfully.

Ice Box ran a great race and if he had moved a little sooner it would have ended differently in my opinion. He had great late speed. he impressed me every bit as much as Super Saver.

If ice Box is in the Preakness or Belmont, I am not so sure Super Saver is a Triple Crown winner.

Looking at Lucky had a terrible start and then it was over. Sidney's Candy faded big time. Felt really bad for Bob Baffert. I think he knew it was coming.

Noble's Promise and Paddy O'Prado ran good races as well.

The filly was overmatched. But she has nothing to be ashamed of.

I will make one last comment: this race made me appreciate Zenyatta even more.

I'm happy Pletcher got his derby.. Dray I told you at the begging of April Nobles Promise is out of Cuvee and he couldn't get the distance and i'm sure you were all smiles at one point in the race but then his pedigree came out and he flatten out.

Gunbow: I think you should watch the replay again. As much as i'm glad for Pletcher if you don't think Ice Box should have won that race you need to really watch that replay when they are about to go into the final turn. I will not bad talk SuperSavior, but between him and Ice Box it was a matter of SS getting a better trip then Ice Box. Ice Box made his move on the rail and then got steadied repeatedly and eventually ended up outside make Muxic for me who I believe was in the 9 path. Super Savior really looked to be struggling home and  I really believe that if Ice Box didn't loose all that ground he would of won. Two jumps after the wire he was in front. They both ran well and all credit to the winner but Ice Box was the only horse moving at the end while the others were struggling to get home and I belive thats because he was the only on who 1mile8th three times and it did help he had good pedigree. I hope Zito waits for the Belmont with him because he the real deal..

I watched the race again trying to see if I can find IceBox's run and I noticed that Jose actually did not take him wide outside.  At the top of the stretch he was trying to get through closer to the rail and the path closed up.  Make Music For Me actually got ahead of him and he just motored home after getting a path.

I'm looking forward to seeing him run in the Preakness.

From DRF.com :

Possible Preakness starters

By David Grening.

The following a list of possible starters for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15:

Horse (trainer)

Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)

A Little Warm (Tony Dutrow)

Bushwhacked (Jonathan Sheppard)

Caracortado (Mike Machowsky)

Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas)

Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)

Ice Box (Nick Zito)

Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)

Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert)

Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans)

Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)

Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)

Super Saver (Todd Pletcher)

Turf Melody (Graham Motion)

Jason:

There is not a single person at Churchill this week who hasn't uttered the phrase, "I have to use Borel in the Derby this year." In fact, at the time of this writing, he is the 7-1 favorite!

Do you think that the above comment you posted had a lot to do with Super Saver's odds being about half the morning line odds of 15-1, it just make's me wonder how many people bet on the horse or how many people bet on the jockey riding the horse.

Rag, he didn't hang, he got a bit tired. Being a big horse like I said, they usually struggle in the mud. Getting squeezed badly then having a horse try to push him way out (when he tends to do that anyway)didn't help especially as it came when he was starting his move, he managed a second move. Actually he didn't really try to bear out this race.

Freshen him? He was off for 3 months, this was his 4th race. After running 5 times as a 2yr old, first start in June and really no run at all in the last 2 races of his two year old season.

He's a big, robust colt who sometimes feels TOO good. That's why he goofs around so much, gets loose and so forth.

Paula I'm a Zenyatta fan but I'm not sure how she would have liked that swamp.

As for Lucky? I'm not sure what GoGo was doing... Unless he was going straight for the lead he hustled him up and right into trouble. For whatever reason he's having trouble riding the rail. Maybe he was going to keep it off limits for Calvin. Dublin almost caught him. Two horses with terrible trips.

Super Saver had the perfect trip. But will the rail open up again? We all know CD is Boo's track, sometimes that rail riding helps him win, sometimes it bogs him down. Getting that additional rain changed the complexion of the race to favor SS and Boo's riding style.

Until the riders develop some gumption and stop up that open rail? Boo will win as many of these as he wants.

Once again, the two best bred horses for a mile and a quarter on the 1st Saturday in May, bumping and banging against many other horses, while carrying the most weight they have ever carried were on top.  One of the things one should do when handicapping the Derby is check the bottom side, first.  This is where the stamina comes from.  La Troienne struck again.  Interestingly, she was on the bottom side of Pletcher's second place finisher not long ago.  Blue Grass Cat was dismissed when, as the fav, ran down the track in the Bluegrass.  Dismissed at over 30-1, he finished 2nd in the Derby.  The owners and breeders of Super Saver were responsible for helping to pass along the blood of La Troienne for both SS and BGC. Now, Mr Rasmussen is gone and the proper elevations to Chef-de-race are rarely done, but,  there was a reason his system was developed for this grueling race.  It was not designed for the Travers or other mile and quarter races as the colts mature.  Stamina on the 1st Saturday in May is paramount.  Too many concentrate on the "classy" ones who are no better than 9 furlong types, at best.  But, their Beyers are ever sooooo MaHvelous, are they not?

However, I can't be too smug as I didn't box the exacta for the only two colts I thought fit the race from a stamina breeding standpoint and I messed up the tri by not thinking that Paddy de Prado (Who looked great in the paddock) would finish with mud splashing in his face. Just another great race and, yet, again another great learning tool.  But, Bonnie Ledbetter would have jumped for joy if she had been able to see how Super Saver was the best looking horse in the post parade.   Better days for all.

Bye Mike Relva, I didn't agree with your opinions very much, but you will be missed, by me and others. Runfast159, Ice Box has Storm Cat in his pedigree, so does Make Music for Me, and they were closing fastest of all at the end, so no one can say Storm Cats lack stamina.

Tim,

Rachel Alexandra got everybody thinking that she was unbeatable and that's the main issue right now while she steadily progresses back to her winning ways.  She has had two good comeback races, losing narrowly to good fillies and should be ripe and ready in her third start back (like Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver).  Having lost two in a row, she should now go hunting for "Queen" Zenyatta or "set ambush" for the next time that one ventures outside of California.  JJ and Steve Assmusen should declare that they are ready to face "Big Z" and see if the Mosses will answer the call.  The Derby is over so "Let's get it on mon."

Time for the build up to the RACHEL ALEXABDRA vs ZENYATTA showdown.    

I'm going to echo Tim G. here---E-freaking-nough on the RA comments! Since last fall I have steadfastly refrained from being a part of the rancorous, ad nauseum, ad infinitum debate on the respective virtues and careers of the mares, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. It is time to let the adversarial arguments end! What has happened is now part of history, and what will happen is simply going to play out as it may. Let's enjoy the many other horses and personalities that exist in this exciting sport and stop the nonsense, because at this point in time, nonsense is exactly what the inane haggling has become.

Mike R. I respect you for being a man of your word, but hey,  Blogs are Blogs, they are opinions, so what we cant' determine who will when these races,  I dont' remember anyone saying they have seen Dray in a pink dress yet,  anyway we need your honesty on here,and you have to keep Mr. know-it-all Dray in tow.

By the way, Mike you stand up and speak for what you believe in, and you do a great job, so , I say , since Dray hasnt' worn his pink dress yet in public so you should not quit blogging..........and he still is on here.....and you should be to.  and remember Zen won the BCC and her other races this year so far, and damn he still hasnt' put on that pink dress and wore it out in public.  

If you are set on leaving the blog,  do us a favor and take Dray with you. and his pink dress.

Karen2, I was also thrilled with General Quarter's win. Gladdened my heart to see him do so well for McCarthy. I was jumping up and down too.

I agree that Calvin Borel runs so close to the rail that something very unpleasant could happen to horse and rider. I said that to my husband when I watched the replay. Makes me very nervous. But he does have it down to a fine art, that's for sure.

Tvnewsbadge, be REALLY glad that Rachel and Zenyatta are still part of the scene and that people bring them up all the time. They ARE good for the sport. It's about passion for their favorite horse. If they were not as visible or not on the scene at all, there wouldn't be nearly as much coverage of the sport by the general media.

Sounds like they are thinking of pointing Ice Box to the Belmont. Probably a smart move if they skip the Preakness. I had Ice Box among my top 4 which makes me feel pretty good.

Dray think it was you who said Wayne fired Nakatani on the spot for a premature move in the Rebel on Dublin? NO he fired him for messing up the horse with a bad ride, 5 wide, 7 wide all over the track, trying to block GoGo in. It was a debacle.  Still think he's recovering from that and the Draynay curse.

NOW YOU are trying to tell Todd how to win a race? My lord after all the trash you talked about him?

You come on here and pretend to be a handicapper, you trash talk and taunt others but it all comes down to betting on a jockey? Calvin is getting away with riding the rail he's done it the last two years in a row and I'm betting he won't get away with it a third.

Next you'll be saying you bet on them for their pretty names. Oh wait that's why you liked Dublin.

Well, oh what pretty racing silks and I love that color horse are next. You call yourself a handicapper? Maybe if you were a 6 year old girl.

Karen in Texas, not sure if you heard Bill but he talked about his experiences in racing in NM, mentioned JJ was a trainer in that circuit for many years. Fact is the Sunland Park Derby was named after WinStar until recently and the farm sponsored the race. Most of these guys came up when there was no legal racing in Texas.

Rock, I am still not convinced Noble can't go the distance.  Just as I predicted he took the lead at the top of the stretch and it was fun cheering him home.  Did the lung infection catch up with him? Who really knows in my opinion the jockey seemed to move him a little early and was a bit too close to that crazy pace.  I hope McPeek gives him one more chance in the Preakness.  If he doesn't win get him ready to be a great miler but give him one more chance in the Preakness. I think his next race will be his best.

I think my only disappointment was with Kent Desormeaux who, after the race stated, "I could have won if I didn't get bumped."   From what I saw...he's the one who cut off Stately Victor and pushed Victor into Lucky, almost knocking Lucky over the rail.

GUN BOW,

A gentleman's word is his bond  ...you should never try to persuade a person to break their bond ...unless of course it is something unlawful or suicidal.  Therefore your counsel to Mike Relva seem a bit out of character.

We have great fun trading and sharing posts on these blogs ...it is a part of life and the best life is a principled one.  Mike Relva is obviously a man of principles and I respect that about him ...even though we mostly disagree on the horses.

FYI,

    Super Saver earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure for his Derby win. Pletcher said that Super Saver's "energy level was better than I would have expected," Sunday morning. Pletcher said that Super Saver would remain at Churchill Downs to train for the Preakness and that he may or may not have a workout before shipping to Baltimore on May 12...

On an off topic subject, if JJ takes Calvin off Rachel Alexandra, I simply cannot root for RA anymore.

Rechelle,

In regard to Calvin B. proclaiming he and Super Saver will win the Triple Crown this year, I admire his optimism and boldness.

BUT, I think Ice Box, and maybe Lookin At Lucky and a few others might have something to say about it. This year's Derby had enough special circumstances with the mud that many good horses had a bad trip or just couldn't run up to their reputations.

On another Derby Day topic, what a wonderful victory for Tom McCarthy and General Quarters! How cool is it they switched him to turf and he found his groove.

Jason:

I know it a little ways off yet, but here a few early horse's name's that might have some thought's of maybe running in the Belmont Stake's.

Devil May Care

Stately Victor

Ice Box

New Madrid

Uptowncharlybrown

Alphie' Bet

Paula Higgins says  "It's about passion for their favorite horse. If they were not as visible or not on the scene at all, there wouldn't be nearly as much coverage of the sport by the general media."

But in my neck of the woods, there is NO coverage of horse racing in the general media except for race results in the local paper.

I had to actually "school" a local sportscaster as to who Zenyatta did was and what she has done, and even so, he is yet to play even one frame of video from her accomplishments this year.

I think we're seriously over rating the effect these two horses are having on the general public when even sportscasters have no idea who they are.

Noble Promise took the lead at the top of the stretch as any 1-1/16th to 1-1/8th horse would have and he did it in good fashion, but as many predicted, he simply could not outrun his pedigree.  The classic distances are too far for him.  Many horses can look great when they strike the front at the top of the CD stretch, but the all out racing really only begins at that point.  You can be a great strategist for the first mile, but the last quarter is what really separates the contenders and the pretenders.

Tim G.---Yes, I'm aware that Mr. Casner and others have some history in New Mexico racing. I believe that he went to college in Stephenville, Texas, and has been a part of the "metroplex" for a while though. I was just offering congratulations to the Winstar team, as was our turf writer for the Star-Telegram, Gary West. I totally appreciate everyone connected to all horseracing here in the Southwestern United States!

And, I totally agree with your previous "E-freaking-nough" comment...

No Paula it's not good for the sport. It's too rancorous. It's exactly the type of bickering that has hurt this sport for a number of years.

I say we stop worrying about the what weres of last year, the what ifs, the what may happen with those two and focus on what is happening in two weeks. We know for certain that race is going to be run and we (at least some of us) have an idea who will run in it.

Just think we have the Draynayian theorem of buckshot, pretty silks, cutest jockey, alien abduction and cosmic Karma school of handicapping selections to look forward to. LOL.

Oh whatever will he do, there are only 14 in the race and he has 93 potential winners.

It was just reported that Super Saver earned a 104 beyer speed rating.  Anyone care to explain that to me

Greg J.

Once again your top 4 for the Derby did nothing. Give up the handicapping. Stick with your little films and pictures.

Since you try and suck up to Pletcher with the Mr. name. Try and do so with Calvin, and call him Mr. Borel.

Mr. Pletcher came through and got his Derby win and his dream I am sure he has had for 30 years.  You can't help but smile and applaud someone who has reached for the stars many times and finally came down with one.  I am like most, I love a happy ending !

Tim G, I understand your point about Zenyatta. I doubt that John Shirreffs would have run her in the slop based on previous history.

Brian,

    Very juvenile of you, I don't even know who you are since your name doesn't mean a thing to me to me, My top four didn't do well as well as 95% of most others here, Unless of course you hit the Super?  Go back to your little hole and I will continue to respect other opinions here that actually are educated and well informed, Unlike your small comments, Thanks...

Brian,

    I just went back up and looked at everyone picks, And what do you know?  I didn't see your picks anywhere on this thread?  You have the gall to put down my picks when you don't even post yours?  Quite comical, At least I actually posted mine, Right or wrong, They are there, Unlike yours, Too funny...

Dr. Drunkenbum,

 I apologize for being terse with you last night. I was still steaming and had a few adult beverages but there was no exuse to post the way I did.  I did not win a dime yesterday because I could not make a bet. I started trying to access my Xpress Bet account around 4:30 and never could get to it online or on the phone due to the site crashing. Cost me a ton and I'm still not a happy camper. Xpressbet is sorry for my inconvienence. LOL

 What I meant by my earlier post was that I am tired of reading the same b.s. anytime someone mentions either Zenyatta or Rachels name. It is the same crap that has been posted 100 times over and over and over. I don't think I'm the only one who feels this way but I could be wrong. I hope everybody had a better day than I had yesterday.

Lazzmanick you're funny. Maybe you didn't notice but Noble beat about 15 horses with "better" so called longer breeding.  I think he just got a little too close to a very hot pace and moved a little too soon. I hope he gets a chance to prove it in the Preakness.  Super Saver was the best on Saturday but on a dry track the race will be much different.

All I can say is La Troienne!  The mistake i made was not giving ice box more of a look.(I had LAL SS POP and SV in a $6 tri box and $10 exacta box) And that dang Calvin Borel has MASTERED the derby!  Also Rachel ran very well and the time was great, but Big Z is from another world!

Draynay

Your excuses continue to amuse me.  NP is a good horse, but he's not a classic horse and never will be.  That's not a slam, it's a fact.  With regards to the others behind him, did it ever occur to you that most of them (the ones that didn't have trouble)will not be heard from in any meaningful way again......regarding Pletcher, your feel good happy ending for him is about as plastic and tranparent as it gets, considering the contifnuous slams and beatdowns you've been giving him all year.  Hopefully, you're being genuine, but notice that I said hopefully.  LOL

Draynay, I really don't think Todd was dreaming of the Derby when he was 12, his Dad JJ was a trainer in NM venturing to AkSarBen as well, maybe Centennial Park back in its heydey, if I remember correctly and doubt many of us back then had Derby dreams.

Todd has only been in the race for the last 10 years, he just had a lot of owners the last several with a lot of horses that they wanted to see in the Derby.

He made it to the Derby along with Wayne when he worked for him, he was one who had hands-on with Thunder Gulch.

I really cannot see how you can congratulate him (even though he has no idea of who you are)after all the nasty things you said about him. Maybe it's something best left unsaid? A little lesson in etiquette and class....

Also, you should seek treatment for that obsession you have with certain horses. Noble had a good post position, had every opportunity, a relatively trouble free trip and still....

Karen, I don't know about you but I've always been curious why, when Texans flocked to Ruidoso and Sunland Park, the tracks in Texas just struggled.....Same with Oklahoma. I've just wondered about that for years.

Paula, because he didn't have to...

NO race really worth running in, a track that they had plans for evacuating the infield in case of flooding? Not sure if you saw the way it was underwater this summer but with tornado warnings, flood warnings it was potentially hazardous and I don't see any reason to run her in that situation. I know a lot of trainers and owners were disappointed as well, but the Derby is a different deal.

Tim G.---That's a big question--I don't truly know, but I've heard knowledgeable people say it has to do with the history of gambling (or the lack thereof) in Texas. I'm linking a recent article concerning the current problems facing Lone Star Park that offers a glimpse of the mentality affecting the tracks here.

www.dmagazine.com/.../Is_Grand_Prairie_the_Next_Sin_City.aspx

Yes, tvnewsbadge, because Zenyatta was denied HOY in '09 and her fans want it very badly for her this year. And who in the states is better than her?

First off Slew, I'm not even sure that Ice Box or Lookin at Lucky will even run in the Preakness, especially Lucky.  Keep in mind that Super Saver was the co-favorite with Lucky.  Don't knock him, he is a good quality horse who can easily run on the slop.   I'm not convince that Lucky can run in slop.  As for Stately Victor, who was my pick as well, I think he was pulled up more than it was him giving up.  He couldn't get out of traffic, so they could have pulled up a bit to keep him from being hurt.  It's not worth a horse getting injured in a race that by the stretch you know he's not going to get up and go, like he showed in the Bluegrass Stakes.  I really hope Victor shows up at the Preakness.  

Now for CV: I like Ice Box (heck he beat Lentenor and it's nice to see that he really is a classy horse) but I am not convinced that he can get up & get by Super Saver.  If it was a closer race than maybe, but it wasn't that close.  Super Saver had 2 and a half lengths ahead of Ice Box.  Ice Box trained well over the slop, but I don't think he could've come in first no matter the surface.  

Y'all can't blame the surface, the horses all trained over it and trained well.  They also had mud nails (kinda like cleats on football players, can't think of the proper word) so that they could get a good grip on the surface.  It was a fair race.  Super Saver just exploded where as the other horses didn't.  Y'all also need to remember that Super Saver was co-favorite with Lucky.  People expected Super Saver to win.  

Just my opinion of course.  He was my second pick, I wish I would've put my bet on him instead of Stately Victor.  I picked Stately Victor because he's bred to do well on mud.  It might've been a different race, had he not gotten stuck in traffic.  I am looking forward to the Preakness and really hope Calvin & Super Saver win it.  If they can pull off getting the Triple Crown, it will do a LOT of good for the sport and attract new fans.  I'll get off my soapbox now. :-)

That's some neck of the woods, tvnewsbadge, and why you have a computer. There be the coverage, son.

Rocker:

I didn't imply that Ice Box did not have trouble; and by writing that I didn't see Ice Box have alot of trouble I didn't mean that he hadn't.  I literally meant that on the video I have reviewed I can't see Ice Box most of the trip.  In the beginning, he's so far behind he's off the screen.  Then, as he's coming around the 2nd turn, there is a wall of hores infront of him blocking the view.  Then, at the eighth pole, he drops out of view once again before swinging out in the middle of the track for his final push.  I haven't been able to see what's going on with Ice Box for most of the race.

Tim G.,

I remember reading John Shirreffs said he would scratch if they sealed the track. I'm not expert in that area but I've read comments from others who say a sealed track is hard and unyielding.

Perhaps you could explain the difference between sealing a wet track and "floating" it. I'm not sure what the latter term means.

Rechelle...I don't know at which point you thought I knocked any horse????  Stately Victor was my choice but he had a horrendous race, and he kept trying.  He did not ease up until the 8th pole....but he was banged up so much during the race, I'm hoping he comes out well and goes on...he kept pushing forward through the mob...that takes heart.  I thought Calvin and Super Saver had a dream run (thanks to Bo-rail).  Ice Box had a horrendous start but went from 19th to 2nd...I thought he was sensational, and had the most speed and stamina. I admired LAL to be able to finish 6th after almost getting pushed over the rail.  I did however knock one jockey because of his rodeo ride and comments after the race...the jockey who pushed Stately Victor into LAL...so maybe you should just put away the soapbox you never should have climbed on in the first place.  

CV a sealed track is a dirt track that has been packed down also referred to as 'floated'  and not  harrowed after it's floated. They seal a dry track to run the water off the track,if it's supposed to rain in order to reduce water/moisture absorption into the track.

They seal a wet track to keep the surface even.

Butch is one of the best, CD has a great runoff system. They watered, harrowed and then sealed the track on Friday. Since all the horses came in a bit earlier this year and had a chance to get over the track it wasn't opened Saturday morning. A good thing I think.

Tim G wrote " I don't know about you but I've always been curious why, when Texans flocked to Ruidoso and Sunland Park, the tracks in Texas just struggled.....Same with Oklahoma. I've just wondered about that for years."

Not all tracks in Texas are struggling.  Especially now that Lone Star Park has been purchased by the Choctaw has purchased it and the track in Oklahoma City.  The Choctaw ownership for LSP will have a lot of benefits from it, and may finally help legalize slots in Texas.  Since LSP is now Indian owned, I don't know how the state can refuse, since it is now indian land.  If Choctaw purchases Ruidoso and Sunland Park, those tracks will also improve.  Choctaw takes their land very seriously, as well as all their business ventures.  For proof of that, just look up what their casino in Oklahoma is like now.  So you don't have to search, here's the link. http://www.choctawcasinos.com/

10 years ago it was a small casino.  It is now a full fledge resort earning millions of dollars yearly.  The Chikasaw Nation also has a casino that 10 years ago was just a small time casino with a motel.  Now it is a full fledge resort as well.  Anything that these 2 indian nations touch turns to gold.  That's why I was so thrilled when I heard that Choctaw Nation had bought Lone Star Park and Remington Park.  It will do nothing but make those two tracks better and hopefully get the Breeders Cup back to Lone Star Park. You can bet they are going to do their damndest to get it here again.

Rechelle, it definitely revived Sunland Park to get slots, the other tracks not so much.

The Pojaque tribe in NM bought the old Santa Fe Downs (where Real Quiet ran a real clunker as a 2 year old). They bought it to keep slots away and a monopoly for the tribes around Santa Fe.

I'm not sure what it is about Tx and racing. They really supported the bush tracks there, but just didn't seem to buy in to the parimutuel wagering, yet seemed to gamble tons in the old days at Ruidoso especially. I'm thinking they like Ruidoso for the Mt town and atmosphere?

Remington and Lone Star are both nice tracks. I just think everyone would benefit from a Stan Fulton running their track like he has Sunland running.

In my opinion yes..you can absolutely blame the surface. Training on it all week does not simulate running on it with 20 horses. Pletcher himself stated there was just no way to prepare your horse for this. You do the best you can but it is mediocre at best. Getting water and mud up your nose and in your eyes and colliding with other horses can change everything. Does Nobles Promise lack the pedigree to go the distance??? This race did not answer that question. I read where someone said the same thing about Sidney's Candy...I completely disagree. More questions will be answered in the upcoming weeks....should be interesting.

Rechelle---I was excited about the appearance of the Chickasaw Nation in the LSP picture as well. If you read the article I linked at 11:21 P.M. last night, it gives fairly comprehensive background and detail on their purchase of the lease. Global Gaming Solutions, the casino subsidiary of the Chickasaw Nation has purchased the LEASE for management of LSP, but the City of Grand Prairie remains the owner of the land. The track is still considered a "distressed asset" for Global Gaming, but is potentially their greatest acquisition ever, if only the state will legalize expanded gambling. There is hope that it will be put to a vote with a statewide referendum. Even for that to happen there must be approval of (I think) 2/3 of the legislature for it to appear on  the ballot. The economy makes all of these things more likely than they have ever been. The article quotes Corey Johnson as being hopeful that the state legislature will act favorably in 2011.

Rechelle, I want them to bring the Breeder's Cup to Remington, since I live in Oklahoma, but I'm sure that will never happen. They might bring it to Lone Star though, and that is the next best thing.

Slew, I apologize, I misread what you want.  I did read today that the owners of LAL were upset with Garret Gomez for not pulling Lucky up when it was obvious he wasn't going to win.  I can kinda see their point, but can also see Gomez's point.  

So far, Ice Box & LAL's connections have not said they will go on to the Preakness.  Actually the only Derby started is Dublin, other than Super Savor, obviously.  Honestly, I don't see LAL running it.  I'd love to see Stately Victor run it.  Heck, I'd love to see Lentenor run it, simply for the emotional value of running in the race that Barbaro broke down in.  It'd be a good tribute to Barbaro.  

Karen in Texas: I thought Choctaw bought everything, land & all.  I didn't realize that it was someone different.  I hope that Texas can get over their ..... issues to put it nicely ..... about slots at racetracks in Texas.  All they have to do is look at how well it's working at other tracks in the country.  It'd be good for the state as well as the tracks.  Honestly Perry can't be that ..... dense ..... can he??  I'm rooting for the Democrat to be the next governor, and I'm normally Republican.  But after Bush, I'm leaning more to Democrat.  Perry needs to get out of office.

Citation, I've never been to Remington, but LSP is a great track.  I wish I could've gone to the Breeders Cup in 2004 but tickets were sold out well before the event, which sucked.  I can't believe I've never been to Remington, since I used to live in Oklahoma about an hour or so southeast of OKC.

From Ranagulzion 02 May 2010 5:07 PM

Rachel Alexandra got everybody thinking that she was unbeatable

Having lost two in a row, she should now go hunting for "Queen" Zenyatta or "set ambush" for the next time that one ventures outside of California.  JJ and Steve Assmusen should declare that they are ready to face "Big Z" and see if the Mosses will answer the call.  The Derby is over so "Let's get it on mon."

Time for the build up to the RACHEL ALEXABDRA vs ZENYATTA showdown.

First of all not everyone believed RA was unbeatable. There was more than one blogger here including myself that stated well before the year began that RA would not go unbeaten this year and would lose to a horse not named Zenyatta during 2010.

Now since that has happened not once but twice RA and her connections have no choice but to quit ducking Zenyatta. RA's reputation has been for lack of a better word "tarnished" and the only way they can get it back is to finally man up and race Zenyatta and beat her. RA isn't finding the easy pickings she found last year and it has exposed her record as being built on soft competition rather than her being a super horse. No horse who loses 5 times out of 16 races and those losses come in less than G1 races is a super horse. That's not saying she's not a very good one but is saying she's not one of the best ever.