Super Saver Has No Easy Task

As of Monday afternoon, it looks as though there is going to be a full field of 14 for the Preakness. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will have no easy task if he is going to take the second leg of the Triple Crown--for many reasons.

The son of Maria's Mon will not have the advantage of having a win--or a race--over the Pimlico oval, as he did at Churchill Downs. He likely won't have a sloppy track (the current weather forecast for Saturday is partly cloudy with only a slight chance of showers), which he excels over. He probably won't get the perfect, ground-saving trip that he did in the Derby. And his jockey Calvin Borel is just another solid rider in Baltimore--not a God like he is in Louisville.

But even more than the aforementioned reasons, Super Saver is going to have to face a very formidable field--one that will include Derby favorite Lookin At Lucky, who should receive a much better trip this time, third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado, and several fresh-and-ready 3-year-olds ready to fire their best shots.

With the graded earnings being inflated as much as they were this year, a more-than-usual amount of solid horses that would have normally been in the Derby were left out. It has made Super Saver's task that much more difficult. Two of those 3-year-olds in particular, I believe, are very live for the Preakness.

Schoolyard Dreams finished a half-length ahead of Super Saver in the March 13 Tampa Bay Derby when beaten a whisker by Odysseus in a heart-breaking decision. Had that photo gone the other way, Schoolyard Dreams would have not run in the Wood Memorial, instead likely training up to the Derby. In the Wood, Schoolyard Dreams finished a disappointing fourth, but trainer Derek Ryan said the colt was not 100% for the race and probably did not receive the best of rides from Ramon Dominguez. You can put a line through the race.

Ryan, who sent out Musket Man to finish third in last year's Preakness, has assigned Eibar Coa to ride Schoolyard Dreams. Coa was aboard for Schoolyard Dreams' fast :59.60 five-furlong work last week at Monmouth, confirming that the colt is ready to fire a big one. If you toss the Wood, he has never been off the board in five other starts and his turn of foot around the second turn in the Tampa Bay Derby was one of the most visually impressive moves of any 3-year-old this year. I think this horse will be very live at a price.

In most years, Caracortado would have had more than enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby. Though disappointed in the weeks leading up to the race, breeder/trainer Mike Machowsky said in hindsight it may have been the best thing for Caracortado to sit out the Derby. I agree with him. I think the California-bred gelding is much better suited for the shorter and less congested Preakness, and it would have been a rush to get him ready for the race since he came out of the Santa Anita Derby a little banged up.

Caracortado was undefeated in the first five starts of his career, including the Feb. 13 Robert B. Lewis when he proved himself against open stakes company while going two turns. He had a wide trip in the paceless San Felipe yet finished only two lengths back of Sidney's Candy, and had all kinds of trouble in his fourth-place Santa Anita Derby run. He's had three solid works since that run, all at Santa Anita.

Caracortado has made all but one of his starts over synthetic surfaces, but he did break his maiden on dirt at Fairplex and has two wins on Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, which is the most similar to dirt of all the California tracks. He seems like a legitimate threat.

Others Preakness shooters that command respect are Hurricane Ike and First Dude. It is shaping up to be an interesting field. Super Saver has all he can handle.

260 Comments

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Dutch

The newcomers to the Preakness are pretty good, but I always like the horses coming out of the Derby. Lookin at Lucky will finally get a good trip and win on Saturday, with Super Saver second and Caracortado third.

10 May 2010 4:35 PM
Billy's Empire

Hurricane Ike redeems Sadler in the Preakness, if only b/c he can't finish worse than 14th... OUCH.

4 horse tri and exacta box

H Ike

S Dreams

Pleasant Prince

S Saver

Only other I am nervous about spoiling the riches is Lucky. Dublin will not emulate his daddy, Sorry Fran and Tim.

10 May 2010 4:35 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

It's quite amazing that although you pegged contenders Schoolyard and Caracortado, you missed the most formidable fresh foe of all in Pleasant Prince. Aikenite could surprise too but Pleasant Prince is the Preakness winner although Lookin At Lucky wouldn't surprise me. He's the second choice.

10 May 2010 4:44 PM
Householder

Well at least Lookin at Lucky won't be running in the back (18th) along with Ice box and Make Music for Me this time around.  Don't see anything in the "new bunch" that could sting these grade stakes winners. Caracortado is nice but in kind of steep.  

10 May 2010 5:17 PM
Virgil Fox

Agree with your assessment, Jason.

It would be no surprise to me if Super Saver prevailed or was beaten.

All the stars must align to win the derby.

Talented horse, jockey, trainer, post position, workouts, weather, pace, ….AND a little LUCK.

A deserving winner, Super Saver had all of the above in the derby.

You have to be a great horse AND you have to get a great trip.

With a good track, smaller, and in some cases fresher, field, I believe the role of LUCK is, ever so slightly, even a bit less of a factor.

You can still get caught wide.

You can still get boxed in.

You can still get cooked on a hot pace.

However, the reduced field size alone may allow for ‘in-race’ adjustment to overcome one, maybe even two, of the stars that are not perfectly in line – especially with a fresh horse OR a horse that has shown the ability to make multiple moves (eg LAL).

The race is by no means ‘in the bag’.

- Peace

10 May 2010 5:19 PM
Meghan

All these royally bred horses are going to get destroyed by the Cal-bred Caracortado.

10 May 2010 5:37 PM
Anne

Hey all, quick question. Was it back in 08 or 09 that you can't bring alcohol into the infield at the Preakness anymore? Or correct me if I am wrong.

10 May 2010 5:39 PM
draynay

Sorry Super Saver.  This is not Churchill and you are a tired horse after getting dragged home in the mud.  Hurricane Ike is your Preak winner.  The right horse at the right time.  I am going to box 5 horses.  Hurricane, Paddy, Dublin, LAL, and SS.  Dublin with Gomez aboard will be a factor.

10 May 2010 5:44 PM
Virgil Fox

Man, that infield was a GHOST TOWN last year.

10 May 2010 5:45 PM
hugs

just read about kd ride on paddy in derby -didnt ride to the finish how about any other race he would have been taken down for the cut off of stately and then lucky i know they let some bumpin go but come on

10 May 2010 5:54 PM
hugs

hope syd get the right ride everyone talked about awesome gems move in gotham not nearly as impressive as syd in tampa but made it to soon the right timing sat and its a win

10 May 2010 5:56 PM
jd

i think that super saver is talented enough that he should win the preakness. i don't think lookin at lucky has proven himself enough over dirt to warrant the accolades that he is getting, one win on dirt when the rest of his races were on synthetic doesn't show me enough. he needs to have more wins before i'll consider him a dirt horse. i think he's the only horse who will challenge super saver in the field, but i don't see him winning it.

10 May 2010 6:01 PM
Caue Caramori

I was all over the Derby winner and I'm giving you another sure winner in the preakness. Looking at Lucky for Fun!!

10 May 2010 6:06 PM
Aluminaut

Any chance of a 200,000 Super in a field of only 14?

10 May 2010 6:14 PM
Zookeeper

The fact that most of us are not "giving" the race to Super Saver makes it even more interesting. If it's a 14 horse field there will be 14 different opinions expressed here instead of just 2 or 3. Don't know for sure yet who will enter but I have the feeling that just about every horse will have some legitimate chance of winning. I think we're in for a treat!

10 May 2010 6:18 PM
dustywhipp

Caracortado has always been a big favorite of mine, he's a tough little guy. And Lookin at Lucky should get a better trip this race. Looks like an interesting field.  

10 May 2010 6:25 PM
vikingblood22

Hello everyone. If he makes it in, I like Northern Giant. He last breezed 3 furlongs in :36 so he is right up there with the rest of the boys. He's got the pedigree and he beat Drosselmeyer. He's been inconsistent, but I'm thinking he is just starting to come into his own (I know it took him 6 trips to break his maiden). The Derby was a slow pace; Super Saver didn't break any records. My fave horse for the Preakness would have been Ice Box but I guess I will have to wait for the Belmont. Grandsire of Backtalk was Affirmed and my sentiment got the best of me and I beat him across the board to see him get beat by 70 1/2 lengths, coming in dead last in the Derby, lol!

10 May 2010 6:37 PM
HollywoodHit

Schoolyard Dreams looks like he's ready to roll. If he's matured and stops easing himself when he makes the lead, his turn of foot will have in the mix late. Not making the derby field was probably the best thing that could have happened for his development.

10 May 2010 6:54 PM
anne

Whoever wins - will have to watch out for Nick Zito and Ice Box, Fly Down in the Belmont!

10 May 2010 6:58 PM
Pedigree Shelly

          I think this race sets up well for LAL and SS ! For some reason I see Hurricane Ike weakening as he makes " landfall " in the stretch at Pimlico lol :)

10 May 2010 7:05 PM
Greg J.

     I agree with you Jason on the fresh colts, As of right now, I like First Dude from the newcomers.  Already, I can throw out Hurricane Ike due to the Dray Curse(Thanks Dray!).  Top five for me at this moment would be Jackson Bend, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, First Dude and Mission Impazible.  Hope we get good weather...

10 May 2010 7:24 PM
Householder

What's happening with Pletcher's Devil?  Can't wait for Evening Jewel and Blind Luck, those "poly track" Queens, to continue to blast away at the 3 year old filly division.  

10 May 2010 7:29 PM
kbrod

still think saver is a improving,and late developer.if he continues to improve,he will be a hand full,hes learning to rate now and that should fit perfect for the hot pace and long preakness stretch

10 May 2010 7:30 PM
2:24

I like Schoolyard Dreams but am really surprised you left off Pleasant Prince.  I like him as having a good shot at the win.

10 May 2010 7:39 PM
Householder

Can anyone figure out Dublin?  He's as close as 5th and then fades to 7th in the Derby?  I liked him but I can't figure him out.  Has not won in 2010 and gets yet another Jockey.  

Don't get fooled by the newcomers.  22 of the last 25 horses that won the Preakness ran in the Derby.  RA of course was one of those 3 and she was, of course, a superstar. Doesn't count. I would bet Caracortado, just not in this race.  

Look for Supersaver to come right back, or even Lookin at Lucky to rebound (like Curlin, Afleet Alex, or Point Given did).  

10 morning line favorites in the last 20 years have won.  

The longest shot I could find in the last 20 years paid $40.00.  

No $200,000 Superfecta here.  

10 May 2010 7:54 PM
Householder

Next to Ice Box, Lookin at Lucky ran the next best race.  What did they start 18th-19th respectively?  Lucky did flatten out at the 1/8th pole and Ice Box kept running.  Lucky seems to need that same position each time for that short, sustained, one run.  He may find that at Pimlico with a lot less slop in his face.  We'll know more after the draw.  

10 May 2010 8:07 PM
EL Kabong

Horses who win the Preakness are typically those who stalk, just off the pace, accelerate off the turn and have the stamina and conditioning to throw down a big effort in the lane. It takes a horse in top form, with class for the distance, push button acceleration, and speed(BB, Smarty, Bernardini, Funnycide, War Emblem)It's not a race that favors closers or plodders(Unless you get a couple of rabbits like Curlin and Street Sense got in 2007). It rather favors a horse who can rate an honest pace and accelerate in the turn. It can be won out front if the pace is honest, 46+ and 1:11+. That said, it sets up nicely in my opinion for Super Saver who can do either one. If he doesn't get a pacesetter to stalk, don't be surprised if Calvin sets him out front like he did with Rachel. His class and light racing so far, with only 3 races, are advantageous to his conditioning for this race. I feel he will win this easily barring any "incidents." Alex is the only one who can overcome that and let's hope there is no need.  

10 May 2010 8:30 PM
MRO

I'm disappointed about A Little Warm. I wanted to see Minidar's son in the winner's circle. Now I'm rooting for Caracotado. I'd love to see the little guy come through.

10 May 2010 8:42 PM
draynot

Picking 40% of the field (including the probable top 2 or 3 concensus picks)certainly enhances your chances of getting it right Mr. BS (nay nay). Don't go too far out on a limb!! Way to show confidence in your abilities to pick a winner!!  

10 May 2010 8:59 PM
x-ray

4th email

All,

I believe we are underestimating Super Saver's derby as he is the only horse that was near the pace that held on to win. The second, third and others came from way out of it as all the speed died except SS.

I picked SS to win the derby and Ice Box for second. SS will win the Preakness with LAL, Paddy, Dublin second.

SS challenge will come in the Belmont as Ice box is surely ready.

x-ray

10 May 2010 9:01 PM
DUBAI DAVE

WILL IRISH EYES BE SMILIN;"

OUR BOY PADDY HAS GREAT TACTICAL SPEED--CAN PRESS OR SIT BACK--

IMPROVING SPEED FIGURES---DIDN'T

HE RUN A 1;45 1 1/8 (miles)

DOWN AT GULFSTREAM? SUPER SAVER

TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR BEAUTIFUL NIGHTMARE, THE PREAKNESS CHAMPION,

MR. PADDY O'PRADO!

10 May 2010 9:23 PM
draynay

Draynot as usual you just posted some nonsense.  I told you who was going to win the Preak.  AND I also gave you the 5 horses I will box for my Tri and Super.  The only thing I didn't give you is the $ to bet with.  I didn't become a handicapping legend by being wrong.  Listen and win.

10 May 2010 9:38 PM
draynay

I believe the 3 furlong work for SS is very telling and a mistake by Mr. Pletcher. IMHO.

10 May 2010 9:41 PM
Phileboy

Alright, for those of you looking for a clue, you might care to know that the very first two horses I offered publicly on one of these blogs run by Jason -- on Wednesday night, some 70 hours before the Derby was run! -- were these: Super Saver and Ice Box. In that precise order, by the way. You can look it up, as Casey Stengel used to say.

And yes, we all know all about how a broken clock is right twice a day and a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and again. So even though lightening may not strike twice in the same place (I think I'm at the end of my list of useless aphorisms right about now!), because I was SO RIGHT about the Derby in a demonstrably specific and public way, you ought to pay attention to me here, as I don't like to repeat myself. (Or, you can waste your time reading what that one guy likes to write, no matter that he always seems to have multiple opinions about every race, none of which, to my reckoning, are ever right!)

With very little gate speed on display among the entrants of this year's edition of the Preakness -- and Super Saver being an eminently tractable horse who can be readily positioned where ever Calvin Borel so desires -- there's no doubt that this horse should be either able to rate off softer fractions than were set in the Derby (if someone else goes to the lead early), or, if need be, Super Saver ought to be able to cut out slower fractions on the front end than customarily is the case,  particularly if Borel sees no early pace and he draws an inside post position.

Essentially, Super Saver appears to have a "high cruising speed," as they say, all of which makes it look like he's destined for a FAR EASIER TIME OF IT winning at Pimlico in a romp than he did at Churchill Downs.

Is he a "lock," as handicappers like to say? Well, I can answer that question far better after the race, but for most of us, nothing in horse-racing is certain, unless you're either very young or very foolish -- and I, at least, don't feel like I am either.

So our little exercise begins with the realization that Super Saver has the right running style to win this race.

Additionally, the  Preakness almost always goes to a horse that has competed in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, since 1980, only six "new shooters" have won the Preakness: Codex ('80); Aloma's Ruler ('82); Deputed Testimony ('83); Red Bullet ('00); Bernardini ('06); and Rachel Alexandra last year. So, since 34 out of 40 times a Preakness was won by a Derby winner translates to 85% of the time this has occurred in the past four decades.

This year, you have only four other Derby horses, aside from Super Saver, who fit that bill.

There's no Ice Box entered, right? And there's no rain forecast that likely moved up Paddy O'Prado, who heretofore was strictly distinguished (if we can use such a word) as a turf or poly horse right? And Garrett Gomez, America's foremost jockey, was taken OFF hard-luck, no-luck-at-all Lookin At Lucky, for no other apparent reason than Bob Baffert needs to provide an alibi to the horse's owners, correct? (One of whom, it appears, is the brother agent for new jockey Martin Garcia.) And Jackson Bend has shown himself to be a converted Florida sprinter who was probably far better at 2 than at 3, right?

Well, then you better get that garland of Black-Eyed Susans ready!

The only potential blips on the radar screen are these: (1) when I saw the replay, I counted Borel whacking SS a disturbing 22 times from the top of the stretch to the finish line check it out, if you'd like), which isn't really a confidence-booster; (2) if Super Saver draws the extreme outside post position, let's say, it will probably make his task nominally more difficult.

All the same, Super Saver is a strong and strapping colt -- and the vigorous urging ought not to matter too much, considering he's been on a four or five race upward progression of his Beyer numbers. And, even if Super Saver draws outside (personally, I'd love to see him breaking from the 6 post!), with his nifty tactical speed, he probably won't be facing as insurmountable a hurdle as other less nimble-footed horses might; and if he does draw outside, that will probably simply boost his odds to a more attractive -- and no doubt overlaid -- price of say, 9/5, or thereabouts, rather than the more likely 6/5 you're apt to see on Saturday if he draws on the inside half of the track.

So, you've read it here first: Super Saver wins in a romp with either Aikenite (a late-developer; showing nascent signs of improvement at the right time and although beaten by Hurricane Ike last time, HI WON't get the distance) or Dublin (Wayne Lukas looking to win his SIXTH Preakness with Garrett Gomez (who suited LAL to a tee last year, simply dying to make Baffert VERY SORRY for being dumped off LAL) vying for second position.

Again, for those not paying attention: Super Saver takes it easily . . . with Aikenite getting up, by a nose, over a hard-charging Dublin in a blanket finish for second!

Good luck to all -- and those who believe can thank me after the race!

Phileboy

10 May 2010 9:42 PM
x-ray

Phileboy,

Pick SS 2nd to me...x-ray

10 May 2010 9:59 PM
charles enderle

lal(lucky) sire belong to me never won past 6 fl. has sone stamina on broadmare but nothing to write home about,can he possible be a through out as co-favorite. i don't think he won past a mile and sixteenth' he gets in trouble and seems to continue running but where is a win.

10 May 2010 10:00 PM
Greg J.

Phileboy,

    Would you happen to know the Powerball numbers for Wednesday night's drawing?  Thanks, lol...

10 May 2010 10:03 PM
charles enderle

looking at lucky's sire has never won past 6 fl ' a complete throw out.

10 May 2010 10:04 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

    After the Preakness, Can you please have the same contest as last year for the Belmont?  A month without Dray would be very welcome at that point, Thanks...

10 May 2010 10:04 PM
HockTheHouseBoys

And Dooooown the stretch the come:

(1) Schoolyard Dreams

(2) Jackson Bend

(3)Super Saver

(4) Paddy O'Prado

10 May 2010 10:07 PM
jayjay

Jason : Thanks for the Preakness blog!  

Here's what I posted in the other blogs about my preakness picks :

Barring any changes to the list of runners, here's what I'm throwing away my money on :) :

SS / Aikenite on top with Dublin / LAL and Pleasant Prince on the bottom.  

I'll be using the same for most of my exotics, might throw PP on top on some of my trifectas and superfectas.

I know the clown will wait until after the race and claim another winning ticket specially if SS wins (the one he has already predicted more than once that will never win the Preakness.)

I'm in a high right now for this years TC chase, I'm almost feeling that this is probably the year.  Like I said before, the racing gods might actually give it to TP and Winstar just because both have waited so long to win their first Derby, imagine if they win TC after winning their first Derby in so many years ??  What a story...

I just know that this week is going to drag on and on and on just because I can't wait for Saturday.

Good luck with all your picks folks!

10 May 2010 10:20 PM
draynay

Phileboy: Listen to an expert and bet Hurricane to win.  Remember, I am here to help.

10 May 2010 10:22 PM
Paula Higgins

School Yard Dreams

Super Saver

Lookin At Lucky

No particular order.

10 May 2010 10:23 PM
Matthew W

Caracortado is chock full'o'class! Use him! Machowsky doesn't ship if they don't have a chance! Super Saver is the horse to beat! My Belmont exacta box just might be Zito's pair/Make Music For Me, who lost tons of ground in the Derby, but it's very possible we'll have Super Saver going for the Crown at Belmont! I believe the best horse won the Derby....

10 May 2010 10:23 PM
jayjay

Just for the record, and that there's no confusion here.  Draynay DECLARES Hurricane Ike as the preakness winner.  He has one week to pick the other 10 horses he will declare as the winner as we get closer to the race. Which means after the race, he can claim he picked the right winner LOL.  

10 May 2010 10:24 PM
Greg J.

Jayjay,

      Don't you mean Dray will pick another 13 winners before the week is up?

10 May 2010 10:35 PM
SmartStrike

I think Super Saver and Lucky are a cut above the other horses in the race and with equal trips I think Lucky beats him.

Schoolyard Dreams would round out a tri bet.

Charles Enderle

Lucky's sire, Smart Strike, won several times at a mile and sixtenth, including the Grade 1 Philip Iselin at Monmouth. He retired in his 3 year old year. He has already sired a Champion turf horse who won the Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half and of course he sired Curlin, a multiple winner of Grade 1's at a mile and a quarter. If he doesn't get the distance the chances are it will be a lack of stamina from his dam's side, not his sire.

10 May 2010 10:47 PM
jayjay

Greg J. : Well, I'm sure he'll toss a couple more before the week is over.  He already tossed SS as the winner.

10 May 2010 11:09 PM
jayjay

Phileboy : Like you, I also like Dublin but because of his style of running.  Your angle of GoGo will try his best to beat Baffert's horse is a nice angle and might be enough to overcome my fear of GoGo's confidence being shot at the moment because of the pressure he'll have riding Dublin cleanly.  If he gets Dublin in trouble, what would that say about him ?  If Dublin gets the inside hole, will he get trapped again and be bullied in to the rail ?  Or will he try something different and push Dublin early to get away from trouble ?  Any way, I like the horse, hoping GoGo does well and comes up 2nd to SS or Aikenite !  He'll be a good price too...probably run at 7-1 or higher.

10 May 2010 11:19 PM
El Kabong

Dray

My money is on Mr. Pletcher. No mistake.

10 May 2010 11:22 PM
trackjack

Pimlico put the brakes on bringing in your own drink for last year's Preakness 09.  And yes, the infield was dead.  But some friends and I (doing a bucket list, KD 08, Preakness 09 and the Belmont this year) hit the gates at 8:00AM and soon were out to the Budweiser $1.00 Beer Garden.  Also got to witness Rachel beat the boys and got some great pictures of her as they brought her up to the track.  

Since I'll be at the 1/16th pole on the apron at Belmont, I will sharpen my handicapping skills, dig into the form and come up with Super Saver to win the Preakness.  Having witnessed Birdstone pass Smarty Jones at the 1/16th pole in 04 to ruin his TC bid, I WANT a TCW and will be there to witness it.

Exacta Box:

Super Saver

Paddy O'Prado

Lookin at Lucky

Schoolyard Dreams

with a win bet on SS.

Good Luck All

10 May 2010 11:41 PM
DR GRACIA

Sorry for SUPER SAVER , but this is a complete different race . HURRICANE IKE is my first choice but problems could become after the strecht,but if he can handle , he will be the winner. Second choice is DUBLIN , Gomez is confindent in his ride . My third choice is LOOKIN AT LUCKY .  This time he will not face any problems and he will make a excellent race , he is the real logic , but he is a very unlucky horse. PADDY O PRADO is another one that would preasure  all the race and can easily be the winner . and SUPER SAVER , with all the respect of been a genuine DERBY winner , don't see him many chances for this race .Prepare your Trifectas Gentlemen .

11 May 2010 1:04 AM
predict

Where's the local hero this year? Seems a little unusual not to see at least one horse that has run at Pimlico. But, I don't think we will see an unusual result, meaning the horses that ran well in the Derby will continue their dominance in the Preakness. Looking at Lucky and Super Saver , one, two in either order. Paddy O'Prado and Dublin, three,four in either order. Only two newcomers I would give a chance of getting into the top four would be Pleasant Prince and Hurricane Ike.

11 May 2010 1:29 AM
Emily

I guess everyone is very happy to have this back as a TC only blog, but I've been waiting to hear the comments on the fact Bridgmohan exercised RA this morning and how that's pretty telling that Calvin will be replaced.  Or am I overreacting?

11 May 2010 2:30 AM
Bluelou

I believe that Lucky and SS are a cut above the field.  I think Lucky is the better of the two but wouldn't mind at all to see SS (and Calvin) win and have a shot at the TC.  I'll make that Exacta box my primary wager and hope for a decent price with the large field.

I'll throw Caracortado in 3rd with the Pro-Ride to dirt angle.  Dublin scares me....I'm still waiting for him to live up to his potential.

11 May 2010 7:08 AM
Phil Boy

Anyone think Lookin At Lucky does not look good in recent photos. Looks too thin and run down to me.

11 May 2010 7:43 AM
hhhhhhhhhhhh

I think First Dude Has got a good chance

11 May 2010 7:49 AM
Slew

I would like to see Super Saver do it again, but I certainly don't feel it's a definite.  Hurricane Ike had the advantage of Borel and the rail at Churchill, in a 1-turn mile.  I don't think there will be a repeat at Pimlico.  POP is a great horse, but I am less than happy with KD's ride.  LAL is all class...I can see him in the money.  I really like First Dude.  I think he'll finish in the top 3.  I thought New Madrid was going to enter, but I haven't seen him listed with starters.  Once he can run in a straight line...I think he'll be a great colt.

11 May 2010 8:15 AM
Trebloc

Super Saver will win the Preakness and the Belmont and SAVE the Thoroughbred industry.  I see that some of bloggers like Schoolyard Dreams, don't forget that Super Saver was giving him 6 lbs in the Tampa Derby and it was his first race in fifteen weeks.  I pretty sure all the colts in the Preakness carry the same weight. Which makes a big difference running in a Classic.  LAL will run unless something "unexpected" happens.  What the hell does that mean?  How much pressure is on Gomez? Maybe he will drive Dublin into LAL as payback?  LOL.  If Paddy O'Prado, was so gassed in the Derby that he could not hold on to second, then he has no chance in the Preakness.  

11 May 2010 8:24 AM
Fran Loszynski

Garrett Gomez and Dublin have a score to settle.

"Watch our dust guys!"

11 May 2010 8:26 AM
Billy's Empire

Remember where POTN finished last year with Gomez on him? Expect the same thing on Dublin. He will not be near the first 4...

11 May 2010 8:30 AM
Jay V

I've obviously lost my mind, but I really think Jackson Bend runs huge here.  Zito might finish 2nd in all 3 TC races this year.  

11 May 2010 8:47 AM
aceman

Jason, why are you not giving SS any credit? This horse won the Derby, He has the most tactical speed of any of the other horses, also I don't believe we have seen the best of this horse yet,training since the Derby and his work yesterday this horse is far from a tired horse as someone else implied. Yes you are right this will be a tough and competative race no easy task by any means but I think he is up to this task, the Derby was no fluke as many have implied. You may want to look at his races on fast tracks as well,this is a very versatile horse and deserves more credit.

11 May 2010 8:50 AM
CURLINLOVER

Looking at Lucky not having a chance because of his sire? What garbage! Smart Strike sired CURLIN!!!!!! Do I need to say more?

Draynay:  Why don't you give a horse a break - other than your own favorites, which change as often that it makes you look like a fool!

11 May 2010 8:52 AM
dajoka502

i like dublin if u watch him in the derby at each call he was making a good run just got tired but that race should get it done caracortado for second aikenite 3rd so bet 50 on dublin and box the rest good luck and u can thank me on  sun

11 May 2010 8:59 AM
Big Louie

Right now I'm lovin Hurricaine Ike. His top Beyers were on the dirt even with trouble in his last 2 and works have been good.

Wouldn't bet LAL with money I found on the ground.

Boxing these four in Ex and Tri

Hurricaine Ike

Super Saver

Schoolyard Dreams

First Dude

11 May 2010 9:07 AM
Rachel

One thing SS has in his corner, along with speed, maneuverability, efficiency and a beautifully open airway, is he really is in sync with CB...he's intent on CB the whole time CB is on him...

11 May 2010 9:17 AM
Will W

Hurricane Ike won't have Borel on his back on a track Calvin owns like Churchill Downs. I liked him in the Derby Trial only because those two factors were in play. What Schoolyard Dreams did against Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby was but the first race back for Super Saver. Super Saver has been nothing but consistent this year - always there at the end. He'll be there again in contention in deep stretch though he may not get there this time. Caracortado seems a better play than Ike or Dreams. Still, if Lookin at Lucky gets a decent post draw and is able to finally get a decent trip, he's the class of the field. Paddy O' Prado who worked so well at Churchill before the Derby should certainly be a factor if he doesn't screw up and change to his left lead in late stretch as Steve Haskins pointed out in his refusal to follow others and criticize Desormeaux for his deep stretch Derby ride.  It will go Lookin' at Lucky, Super Saver, and Paddy O' Prado in the finish of the Preakness.

11 May 2010 9:29 AM
Rob G

For anyone who likes Super Saver to win I'd like to suggest a betting strategy that won't break the bank (lifted from Brad Free's Handicapping 101 with a bit of a twist).Let's make 3 superfecta tickets keying Super Saver on top (#1)with 1 horse that that we like to hit the board (for sake of argument let's use Pleasant Prince #2) and 4 other contenders (#3,4,5 and 6)The tickets would be 1-2-3,4,5,6-3,4,5,6; 1-3,4,5,6-2-3,4,5,6 and 1-3,4,5,6-3,4,5,6-2.For insanity insurance we can back up the super bets with a tri 2,3,4,5,6-1-2,3,4,5,6. Total cost would be $56. A decent payout can be had with 2 modest opinions.  

11 May 2010 10:01 AM
s lee

Looking forward to the Preakness!

I was just reading Steve Haskin's piece on Paddy O'Prado in Bloodhorse this morning, and while I've liked this horse since I saw him race (on tv) at Saratoga, he seems to change leads a lot, esp. when tiring.

Steve talks about this in his piece, and, interestingly, look at the picture that goes with his article.  Paddy is either cross-cantering, which is incredibly unbalanced, or he's in the middle of changing leads (either his idea or the rider's).  I once knew a young horse who did this in the middle of a growth spurt - he couldn't seem to figure out how many feet he had and was always changing leads.  But the only other horses I've seen swap leads this often had bad feet or bad knees.

Paddy has a wonderful amount of raw talent, and one wonders how much better he'll be in the last quarter mile if they can get him to stay on lead.

11 May 2010 10:30 AM
2-cents

I will give Jackson Bend and Lookin At Lucky another shot.

11 May 2010 10:40 AM
Greg J.

Jay V.,

     If you have lost your mind, Well, I have lost mine too!  I love a Super Saver, Jackson Bend exacta...

11 May 2010 11:04 AM
BALA

IF Caracotada doesn't win by 5 lengths or more, I will jump of Woodrow Wilson Bridge.  He must destroy this field.  HE IS THE LOCK OF THE MILLENIUM

11 May 2010 11:30 AM
Billy's Empire

Dublin and Tidal Pool, both tosses! You better toss them like I tossed up my 30 beers I drank on Saturday in the yard games decathalon!! What a day....

11 May 2010 11:30 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

WARNING. If you are playing a trifecta or superfecta and you don't have Pleasant Prince on your tickets then you can tear them up ahead of time before the race even starts. Even not having him in the top two spots is risky.

11 May 2010 11:40 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Billy's Empire

   30 beers. That's not even two cases. It's only 5 sixpacks. I guess you must of had a couple of fifths of Jack Daniels with it. Oh, maybe those beers were quarts. Ok. I get it now, it was 30 quarts of beer. Nevermind.

11 May 2010 11:43 AM
Ranagulzion

Here's the Preakness deal: Super Saver over Caracortado and Schoolyard Dreams.  If Dublin or Lookin At Lucky fail to win this time, they will have exhausted all their excuses for not being quite up to par.  With fair skyies and a fast track ...sorry no "hurricane" this week-end (LOL), it good luck to all.

11 May 2010 11:55 AM
dbs

If Lookin at Lucky gets a decent trip he could be a big time winner.

11 May 2010 12:00 PM
Ted from LA

Super Saver, Caracortado exacta box.  SS, Caracortado, Schoolyard Dreams tri box, SS, C, SD, Paddy O super box.  Unlike Draynay, I change my underwear more often than my triple crown picks.

11 May 2010 12:09 PM
KY Kid

Phileboy - SS will never see 6/5 on the tote board...take a look at all the opinions on this board, they will be just as diverse on Saturday...he goes closer to 5/2 or 3/1.

11 May 2010 12:10 PM
Fran Loszynski

Billy's Empire

For Dublin:  If you toss, your loss! Tidal Pool could fool but it looks like second, Harissa wins. Couldn't rhyme Harissa!

11 May 2010 12:22 PM
jayjay

I don't get the fascination about Hurricane Ike.  I don't know if he can get that distance and don't really like his pedigree but I won't persuade all those who wants to bet him, please go ahead and put the farm on him, miracles do happen :)

Looking forward to the post position draw tomorrow, hoping my horses gets decent posts.  If LAL gets between 7 and 11, I might have to put him on top along with SS and Aikenite...if not, I'll stick with those two regardless of what their PPs are.

Jay V and Greg J : You guys just might hit the exacta since to me, it seems JB is the only pacesetter, I don't see any other that will set the pace with him and he might actually get a chance to steal the show.  I'm hoping he'll fold though  hehe.

I might throw a couple dollars to box him with my horses just in case.  Not enough to change my bets though : SS and Aikenite!!

11 May 2010 12:27 PM
I Davis

Super Saver all the way...he's got Slew blood, looks like Slew, and it's time for another triple crown winner...by the one and only Slew!  As fate would have it, guess what # Slew wore in the Derby??  Yes, #4, same as SS.  And I'm hoping for #8 on SS in the Preakness...same as Slew. It'll be a tough race, but I'm singling SS in my Pick 3...just as I did last year w/Rachel.  No guts, no glory. Go Super Saver!  

11 May 2010 12:43 PM
KR

1) Paddy O'Prado - Improving at right time - Desormeaux answers critics!

2) Aikenite - Late run for place at a big price.

3) Super Saver - Doesn't get perfect set-up this time.

4) Lookin At Lucky - Troubled trips

not all jockey's fault.

11 May 2010 1:02 PM
Zookeeper

I'll be pulling for Super Saver. First, because I like him and second, because the Belmont is so much more exciting if a TC is on the line.

I'm waiting for the post position draw to put my bets together. Keeping my fingers crossed for Lucky to get a good post. If so, I'll definitely include him in all my bets.

A 14 horse field is better than the Derby's 20 but it still can cause quite a few traffic problems. Shoot! I've seen horses get boxed-in in a 5 horse field more times than I care to remember.

11 May 2010 1:06 PM
OLD TIMER

charles, Looking at Lucky's sire may never have won beyond a sprint (I do not know) but he also sired Curlin, who won this race, and English Channel, who won at 1 1/2 miles. LAL may or may not win the Preakness, but it won't be for that reason.

Hurricane Ike looked good in the Trial, but 3/16 mile extra is a long way to hold on.

Schoolyard Dreams and Pleasant Prince probably the best of the new boys.

11 May 2010 1:08 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        My selections for the Preakness are

Super Saver

Looking at Lucky

Paddy O' Prado

I like Jackson Bend and First Dude for longshots and exotics. I discovered something interesting in First Dude's pedigree,both he and his paternal grandsire AP Indy ,decend from the great broodmare Uvira II on their dam's side !

11 May 2010 1:29 PM
Trebloc

I Davis,

I want to party with you!  Super Savera all the way!

11 May 2010 1:33 PM
jayjay

Bala  :  seriously ??  you would make that bet ?? I may have to look into caracortado if you're willing to jump off a bridge, maybe you should change it to "IF Caracortado doesn't win..."  asking for that 5 lengths is suicide!  :)

11 May 2010 1:39 PM
Draynay

Old Timer, Hurricane Ike ran behind very fast fractions and had plenty of kick to the wire and after the wire.  He will not see fractions that fast and may take the lead and go wire to wire. 300 yards is not going to break him.

11 May 2010 1:49 PM
Fran Loszynski

As much as I want Dublin to win the Preakness and Belmont-if it is not meant to be then I hope Calvin Borel gets his Triple Crown. To me he has always been the "Seabiscuit" jockey of our time. The Louisiana farmhorse rider. The jockey eating a sandwich in a beat-up old hotel in the 1930's hitching a ride to the track and racing his heart out. I hope someday there is a movie out about him called

"Bo-Rail" He and his wife Lisa deserve to see that happen. So Calvin as much as I want Afleet Alex's son to win these races-if it is not meant to happen then I hope -you get the Triple Crown. You are a jockey we won't see again for a long time.

11 May 2010 1:52 PM
MRO

I agree with Anne. Watch for Ice Box to dominate the Belmont field. Zito will do it again. The Belmont is the best of the 3 Triple Crown races hands down.

11 May 2010 2:06 PM
fredo

I don't put too much stock in Beyer numbers as my primary handicapping tool, however you have to be impressed with the ascending numbers put up by Super Saver.  He has never digressed from his previous number and I don't see it happening here.  With only 3 starts this year this may be his finest performance.  He has obviuosly learned how to rate and stalk.  He will be sitting behind Ike, Aikenite, 1st Dude and Yawanna - will make a middle move and hang on.  To fill in the exotics there's Dublin who made an impressive move from the 6f mark to the 9f mark...he gets up for 2nd. L@L / PP / Caracortado / Schoolyard round out 3rd and 4th

btw...Derby wager was stalker over the deep closers --- cashed tri AND super

11 May 2010 2:28 PM
Kevin Stafford

I get what you mean about this not being a cakewalk for Super Saver - but I have trouble classifying this as a solid Preakness field.  

Super Saver should have his way with them given his tactical speed.  He should get first jump on Hurricane Ike if/when that one fades (and I'm not convinced he will, definitively).

Lucky needs to get out away from the rail and should not leave himself as much running to do late.  That may be asking him a bit much. Still, the way this horse fights back through adversity, he'll find a way to will himself to the wire in time to hit the board. I can't back him to win because of the battles he's been through and all the shipping he's done back and forth over the country - but I do see Lucky giving Super Saver a race here.

Underneath? Honestly you could make a case for just about any of 'em beyond that. Paddy O'Prado and Caracortado look like must uses - as does Hurricane Ike since he could be alone on the lead.  

I could see Pleasant Prince, Dublin, Aikenite, First Dude, and Schoolyard Dreams in the 3rd and 4th spots of my Super as well.

Cheap on top (1 to 2 horses for the win - 3 to 4 horses for place) and then mushrooming towards the bottom for some added coverage.  

Straight up:

- Super Saver (W)

- Lookin at Lucky (P)

- Paddy O'Prado (S)

11 May 2010 3:15 PM
Gary Lynn

EVERYONE GET ON BOARD...DREADNEIGH HAS POSTED HIS PICKS....FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, EVERYONE IGNORE HIM....LET HIM POST TO HIMSELF!!!! DON'T BREAK THE CHAIN...IF SO YOU WILL RECEIVE BAD LUCK IN THE PREAKNESS!!!!SHOW SOME RESOLVE!GOOD TIGHTNER FOR YOUR HANDICAPPING SUCCESS.........

11 May 2010 3:34 PM
Funny1991

I like Super Saver in here and Lookin at Lucky I think its about time that he has a new jockey to try to get to his winning ways (I would have gotten rid of Gomez after the Sanita Anita Derby)

11 May 2010 4:10 PM
Billy's Empire

Dr Dizzle, also involved were the customary Jager Bombs, Car Bombs, early morning bloody mary's and vodka in the gatorade, and that was before we ate lunch at noon. This is the best party of the year. It is a fundraiser for the MS society. We raised about $2000 and drank 942 beers, by 7 pm

11 May 2010 4:23 PM
Billy's Empire

Dray who?

11 May 2010 4:24 PM
KY Kid

My take:  I was on SS in Derby and still like him. He had an "explosive" pattern coming into the Derby and getting away with winning in 2:04 & change couldn't have taxed him any. Calvin was on him a little in the stretch but I think to keep his mind on business as they said he was a little prone to waiting on horses.  As a few have said in this chain I believe he goes forward again & wins barring any misfortune.

As for the others, I've been an Aikenite fan and followed him since he broke his maiden. Derby Trial was encouraging as they finally took him way off the pace again and he made a huge move around the turn but 6-7 wide and never could get to Ike who had a perfect trip.  If they've figured him out and take him way back again he's another who could make a forward move.  Jackson Bend is a tough nut...if you liked Eskendereya before the injury how can you not like the horse that ran 2nd twice to him + finishing ahead of Ice Box, who I love, in the Holy Bull.  Also like Pleasant Prince as he also only got beat a nose by Ice Box in Fla Derby.

I'll make a stand and key SS on top over Aikenite, Jackson Bend & Pleasant Prince in 2nd & 3rd in the tri's and supers.  I had the first 3 in the Derby super but no "9" in 4th, so trying to figure out a reasonable $$ ticket using "all"...I was sick after I saw the $200,000+ pop up.

Good luck to all!

11 May 2010 4:47 PM
CajunCountry

Just say "nay." (or is that "neigh"?)

Just looking at Pleasant Prince's pedigree - and while he no Bernardini - it's pretty solid of this distance. Always like to see Buckpasser down there on the damside.

11 May 2010 5:22 PM
WinnahPickah

Uggh, I like Paddy O'Prado & Schoolyard Dreams then I saw who got the mounts. I wouldn't put those two jokers on $5k claimers but Hey, thats just me.

I'm gonna play a tri box and exacta box with lookin at lucky, caracortado, first dude, & Super Saver.

11 May 2010 5:28 PM
jayjay

People who think SS doesn't stand a chance in the Preakness should not even bet, just give me your money.  I'll double it using SS.  

Draynay : Your first comment in the blog is  "Sorry Super Saver.  This is not Churchill and you are a tired horse after getting dragged home in the mud."  

but then you also said this " I am going to box 5 horses.  Hurricane, Paddy, Dublin, LAL, and SS. "

Boxing a bet means, ANY of those horses can win, do you understand that ??  Do you know how to bet ?

This is how you make yourself look like a fool.  You contradict yourself and forget your comments...IN THE SAME BREATH! LOL

Yeah, you sure are the king of handicapping, don't ever miss a beat!!!  Let's see them big wagers coming, I wouldn't mind seeing your money in the pool :)

11 May 2010 5:49 PM
Matthew W

Jackson Bend worked lights out, Nick said "on his own"...very near a soft pace??....

11 May 2010 6:09 PM
jayjay

KY Kid : Try this :

$1 Trifecta :

1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with ALL = $210 (with 14 starters)

$1 Superfecta :

1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5 with ALL = $1,050 (with 14 starters)

That's a lot cheaper than $200K and there's a good chance that longshots will come in for 2nd, 3rd and 4th!

My thing is, I try to narrow my picks to 3 horses who I think will have the best chance.

Don't try to buy the race! :)

11 May 2010 6:10 PM
Matthew W

Caracortado worked 7 fur before the Preakness--he'll be long fused/hope Paul keeps him back for that one big run--he has it, and if things play out, and he waits a bit, I think Caracortado just might get the $$$ at Pimlico....think there will be plenty of middle-moves--think 'Lucky will be close--I think a horse with a kick, like Caracortado--might be the right play Sat....

11 May 2010 6:13 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Funny1991

  I agree. I would have changed jockeys after the SA Derby. I think Baffert considered it and might be kicking himself now. Gomez was so unlucky that if they had changed after the SA Derby then I'm willing to bet that Lucky would have drawn post 7, instead of post 1.

11 May 2010 6:18 PM
CV

"I will give Jackson Bend and Lookin At Lucky another shot."

2-cents 11 May 2010 10:40 AM

"Jay V., If you have lost your mind, Well, I have lost mine too!  I love a Super Saver, Jackson Bend exacta..."

Greg J. 11 May 2010 11:04 AM

I'm with you guys when it comes to Jackson Bend. He had a fast workout Monday and Nick Zito says he's going to be much closer to the pace than in the Derby. He's a tough little horse and I'd love to see him come in first or second.

I also hope Lookin At Lucky can do a lot better this time. There's just a 10% chance of rain Saturday so the track should be dry, which will elevate those who don't like the slop.

11 May 2010 6:19 PM
Paula Higgins

Ice Box in the Belmont I agree. But if Super Saver wins the Preakness I will be rooting for him in the Belmont to do the impossible.

11 May 2010 6:44 PM
Phileboy

KY Kid . . . Perhaps you're right and Super Saver WILL be closer to 5/2 than the 6/5 I mentioned.

My first inclination, I assure you, was to suspect as much -- that he'd probably be in the vicinity of 5/2. But then I reconsidered my comment on this blog on Wednesday before the Derby where I suggested that I might be able to get 14-1 on him for the race (that's what I predicted, anyway), only to be damned surprised to see him sent off at the 8-1 second choice. (I had a nice bet on him anyway -- and had a modest bet on him in the first future book pool, at 20-1!)

My guess, however, is that this time, he'll be less than 5/2, if only because he seems so obvious to so many handicappers.

This doesn't mean that he HAS to win, of course, only that a lot of a people who analyze races in a rather sophisticated way are apt to see what I do, particularly if Super Saver draws an inside post.

I suppose we'll see soon enough, won't we?

It's odd, though, that his price, like the price of any horse bet to win, isn't terribly relevant top most bettors, when the horse happens to win; the issue only becomes worth discussing when it emerges as a sore point after-the-fact, for if the horse being bet happens to LOSE, well, you start to question why you may have accepted a price that was, upon further reflection, far too short to have taken in the first place to have made it worth your while!

Personally, I feel that today, five days before the Preakness, anything over 3/2 ought to be considered a very big overlay and a bargain -- and while I don't typically make win bets on horses that hover at that price or lower, if I get 3/2, my inclination is to bet him, with both hands, assuming he doesn't draw a wide post at Pimlico, which does have tighter turns than do most other tracks.

Best,

Phileboy

11 May 2010 6:53 PM
Francis

Garrett dont put your head down the trainer lost the derby before it ran crying at the post position if the trainer is not confident then I dont blame any one, your the best jockey and you should prove it to them some people just leave you half the way in life and that happened to you.Just go there on 15 May and prove them wrong.

11 May 2010 7:17 PM
Supers Gonna Win

Come on guys have a little faith in Super Saver!! All the papers say hes not even tired after the Derby. Pletcher said so himself, plus SS has Calvin and Calvin's good. My pick is SS. I also Pick LAL but he's gone down hill his last few starts.

11 May 2010 8:05 PM
jayjay

I disagree that SS will get any lower than 5-2, people are still hooked on LAL, with the new jock switch he might even run as the favorite.  People will go with the "lesser than 20 horses, jock switch and shorter distance" as the angle for LAL.  I won't though, but I'll still play him for trifecta and superfecta, I just don't believe at this time that he'll win.  SS will probably go off at 5-2 or 7-2 as the mild favorite but LAL and PP will all get a lot of the money.

Jackson Bend and Hurricane Ike will kill each other on the lead, those two will most likely fold after a mile and the stalkers (SS / Dublin and LAL) will take over at the top of the stretch with Aikenite and PP in pursuit.  Aikenite and SS battles for the wire with PP and LAL in tow.  Who wins ??  doesn't matter to me, I'll have both on top hehe :)

I'll have to see the horses during the post parade or during the coverage before I seal away my bet money...I doubt my picks will change though.

11 May 2010 8:09 PM
WinnahPickah

I was just looking at the weight assignments in the Black Eyed Susan. +6 for 3,5,&9, Khancord Kid, Harissa, & Diva Delite. Why is this race not run at equal weight?

FYI: 1st HALF OF BLACK-EYED SUSAN PREAKNESS DOUBLE

doesn't seem fair. (IMO)

11 May 2010 8:53 PM
jayjay

Anyone else read the article about Ramsey's take on his horse Pleasant Prince's chances in the Preakness ?? I thought it was odd but realistic, I've never seen an owner make that kind of prediction towards their horse, I may toss him out altogether but of course, maybe he just wants a big price on his horse... I'm boggled by his statements though.

Another good article is about Paddy O'Prado in the main TC page but only because they mentioned my horse and how he ran one of the best losing performances in the history of Derby :)

11 May 2010 8:59 PM
KY Kid

jayjay - the $200 grand I was refering to was the super payout, not the price of a ticket I was trying to put together LOL.  But appreciate your suggestion and for supers will single SS on top 1,2,3,4-1,2,3,4-All and 1,2,3,4-All-1,2,3,4...if I'm right looks like $131 each way (if 14 entered)?    

11 May 2010 9:21 PM
KY Kid

Ramsey is a HUGE gambler...would take anything from him with that in mind.  What site is the article on?

Good luck Saturday to all!

11 May 2010 9:24 PM
scott

win--paddy o'prado

place--super saver

show--hurricane ike

4th--lookin' at lucky

11 May 2010 10:23 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

   Mr Ramsey said that he probably wouldn't win the race but also said that he wouldn't be sending him unless he thought he could finish in the top three. I also think he was saying that with a little luck you never know, which means a win is possible. You're not going to think your horse has a good shot for the top three and then think he can't win, so yes he thinks he can win but it will be tough and they will need some luck. He's just being realistic-this is a very tough race with some very talented horses. Despite what he says I really like Pleasant Prince for a top 3 or 4 finish and he's still my pick for the upset win. What I found most interesting is that he wanted to go to Arkansas which is whT I said all along- that he should go to The Arkansas Derby and I was perplexed as to why they didn't. The same with Odyseuss. Mr Ramsey should have overridden his trainer and gone to Arkansas with PP. Ward says Pleasant Prince is doing great, so I still say tossing him is extremely risky. This is a talented dirt horse on a dry track. Be careful. And reread the article. I don't think it's as negative as it seems on first glance.

11 May 2010 11:02 PM
Rechelle

My pick is Super Saver, of course!  I'm just not convinced that Lookin at Lucky has enough dirt experience (this will be only his third start on it).  I'm not convinced that his bad trip came from bad riding, so much as it did a lack of experince running on dirt (or mud as the case was). I don't like how Baffert is throwing Gomez under the bus for a couple of bad races and I sure as heck don't understand putting a rookie jockey on a horse you want to win the Preakness.  Yes, Garcia won the Lone Star Derby for Baffert, but that is such a minor race compared to the Preakness and Garcia did not ride very well in the Derby.  That should have been a clue.

Now, back to Lucky.  Before y'all attack me, I know he won the Rebel at Oaklawn on dirt, but to me, one win does not necessarily mean that he can run on dirt, it means he had a great race and was the best horse that day, just like Super Saver was on the day of the Derby.  I am betting against Lucky primarily because a Triple Crown win would do so much good for the sport and I do believe the best chance for it is this year. I think a lot of people are detracting from Super Saver, forgetting that until the last 20 minutes or so, he was CO-favorite with Lucky, betted farther down that Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado or Sidney's Candy.  There is a reason for that.  He is a great horse who has always been extremely muscular and has always looked like a race horse, even as a foal.

11 May 2010 11:55 PM
jayjay

Doc (hope you don't mind me calling you doc but do let me know) : Yeah, I understand the part of being realistic but I've never heard an owner say that about their horse.  One of his first comments is "We're probably not going to win the race" which is kind of odd to me.  Why enter if you feel that way, granted he did say what you quoted towards the end.  I never thought it was negative, my reaction was mostly "unexpected", just didn't expect to hear that from an owner specially Ramsey who's a very competitive owner.  I remember cheering for him when he was running Kitten's Joy (who is still one of my favorite turf horses.)  I do like Pleasant Prince and even thought about putting him on top.  I do know he'll be at a good price and running 2nd to SS, I'd be happy :)  If SS can get the TC, I wouldn't mind losing my bets on Aikenite because I know I can make it back if SS runs in the Belmont for the TC, he'll be at a good price because my other pick will most likely be the favorite (IceBox).  

I'll play SS, IceBox and Make Music For me again in the Belmont.

Let's go SS, let's get that crown!!

KY Kid : It's in the main TC page on this site.

12 May 2010 12:18 AM
jayjay

KY Kid : LOL, apologies for misunderstanding.  I was one horse off in my superfecta in that race ( left out POP on my ticket in the 3rd hole with SS on top).

Anyway, yeah, the way I figure out the amount is I multiple the number of horses in each spot :

14 x 14 x 14 x 1 = $2744.00 (for $1 bet)

That's buying the race lol, it is a tough race but you may have to take a chance and pick 3 or 4 in the 2nd, 3rd spot and maybe all on the back just to keep it the bet down but if you have 2800 to spare, go for it! :)

1 x 4 x 4 x 14 = $224.00 (for $1 bet)

12 May 2010 12:27 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

  Or he's using reverse psychology.

12 May 2010 12:34 AM
RJPPDP

I think that it will be a close race but I still think super saver is definitely the play. I am still trying to figure out how to play this preakness so I can maximize payout. Singling two horses would be a good start. The first or second will not be super saver. I think you can do more by a different single. My different single is schoolyard dreams. If I play him right and supersaver does not hit, I can hit it big. I also like Yawanna Twist. I think he is a gamer and he will be tough on Saturday. So my Tri right with SYD being my single would be 1X5X8 then moving schoolyard dreams to second and third. The question is who would be my five horses to play and then four to add on to the bottom.

As of today prior to post my five are:

Lookin at lucky, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver, Pleasant Prince and Jackson Bend.

The other four would be Dublin Aikenite, Northern giant and Caracortado.

I know I am leaving Paddy out but things might change at post drawing. If i do add him no one will be subtracted unless they scratch.

12 May 2010 1:10 AM
Bellwether

LET EM FLY...

12 May 2010 1:42 AM
Gary Lynn

rechelle...you probably don't follow California racing; Mr. Garcia is not a rookie. I had a suspicion going in that he might look to set the race up for Lucky by taking care any speed horses. The jock had no idea what was going on behind him with regards to Gomez. Conveyance was also very headstrong. I like Super Sasver still, but if Bob feels he's right, better respect. As to your sole dirt win theory; only has merit by fitting it into the category of having sex for the first makes one a good lay.

12 May 2010 3:22 AM
easy rider

Hey folks, What is all this Super Saver bashing Dah? Cant you get over the fact that you didnt know how to handicap the best BRED horse in the field. Super Saver and Paddy o grady are the 2 best horses in the Preakness. So Please unload your wallet on that loser Lookin 4 Lucky, who can not even run faster tha a 1:43 in a mile -sixteenth on synthetec!

12 May 2010 3:57 AM
Slew

All these arguments about LAL...I think he's a colt with a lot of class.  That class shows through when he continually comes back after a lot of hard knocks.

Rechelle:  I just don't think you're watching the same races as the rest of us. Gomez threw himself under the bus with his poor decisions (and I think he's a great jockey...just not lucky on LAL).  

12 May 2010 6:31 AM
berttheclock

While I was reading your article about Stickball King, the son of Stephen Got Even, I recalled that SGE was one of the most aptly named colts of all time.  Do you recall the story of Jim McIngvale taking his horses away from Zito?  Then, McIngvale bought the rights to the Jim Beam stakes and renamed it Galleryfurniture.com Stakes.  He was proudly going to hand the cup to the winning trainer and owner.  Thus, it was ever so appropriate for Stephen Got Even, Zito's runner, to win the race and McIngvale having to congratuate Zito and hand him his prize.  But, I just love all of that Nasrullah breeding in SGE both top and bottom.

12 May 2010 8:25 AM
Forbidden Apple

Regardless of the track condition, I can not get excited about a horse that runs 2:04 2/5 for 1 1/4 miles. After early defections of Take Control, Winslow Homer, Buddys Saint, Eskendereya, Endorsement, and Setsuko, this years KY Derby was lacking a star. I was left taking a chance on Awesome Act who I am guessing has some type of injury after such a horrible performance. Super Saver ran like a mud turtle and only had to pass one horse. Good luck betting this horse back as the favorite. I like Lookin At Lucky even more with Martin Garcia, but this horse loves to find trouble and always has some excuse after the race. Caracortado is my top pick, the dirt surface is my only concern. He is lightly raced and can easily sit off from the pace and try to make his move at the top of the stretch. His rags to riches story and unknown jockey remind me of Seabiscuit.

1-Caracortado

2-Lookin At Lucky

3-Super Saver

4-Schoolyard Dreams

12 May 2010 9:42 AM
Gavin

I think everyone is forgetting something: Pletcher. He knows how hard it is to win a triple crown race let alone the derby. He is going to make the most of it and have that horse ready to go on Saturday. Team up: Pletcher, Borel and a talented horse. I agree with those who say SS's challenge will be IceBox in the Belmont. SS to win. Lucky should run 2nd or 3rd.

12 May 2010 9:49 AM
Bill K

Super Saver will have an easier time in the Preakness. The pace will be more reasonable unless miler Hurricane Ike goes out in .46. Either way he will get first run. Also despite his two off track wins, think he is a better fast track horse. The horse to watch out of the derby for second is Dublin. Jockey made a premature move in derby and he flatten out. Gomez will not that mistake.

12 May 2010 9:51 AM
stat-man-do

ABSURD STAT # 2301

   "BEWARE THE APOSTROPHE"

When Sydney's Candy and Paddy did not win the Derby it continued a 1 for 136 trend for horses with apostrophe's in their names....the Preakness however boasts better odds as 3 of 135 have worn the Black Eyed Susans....now all you Paddy fans can feel better    

12 May 2010 10:06 AM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay.....way to go.  You just had to tout Hurricane Ike.....now they decided to scratch out ......who are you going to force to scratch out next?

12 May 2010 10:35 AM
stat-man-do

Hurricane Ike is OUT !!!!!

12 May 2010 10:43 AM
Greg J.

Unreal!!!

Once again, The Draynay curse strikes!  His pick to win the Preakness, Hurricane Ike, Is out of the Preakness...

12 May 2010 10:55 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

  I understand what you are saying completely. It freaked me out at first too. I'm thinking that Lookin At Lucky is really the horse to beat in The Preakness. That is one tough cookie. I'm a little less enthusiastic about Pleasant Prince than I have been simply because I'm not sure that he has as good of a foundation as Super and Lucky but I still give Pleasant Prince a shot. Caracortado could do something with a good trip too. Schoolyard is talented but I'm not sure how he fits with Lucky and Super. After I study the PP's maybe I will have stronger feelings. If not, then I'll consider it to be too wide open. Sometimes I can wire it, sometimes not !!!!

12 May 2010 11:38 AM
draynot

Greg J. and all who noticed the draynay curse at work once again with the withdrawal of Hurricane Ike from the Preakness,

It's god's way of punishing draynay for his ridiculous comments earlier on another addition of this blog.

12 May 2010 11:41 AM
CURLINLOVER

Draynay!

I'm beginning to think you may be casting a bad spell on your horses.  Your latest pick - Hurricane Ike - now out with injury.  You might want to refrain from more betting lest other horses should succumb to your bad

karma! Every time you pick a horse, that poor horse suffers your curse! What kind of dark power do you have? Maybe it's time to ban Draynay from all blogs!!!

That might keep our horses safe!

I won't even comment on my favorite as Draynay might pick up on that. Go away, horse-curser! And let the rest of us relax and enjoy these beautiful horses race their hearts out this Saturday - all coming out healthy and sound! Enjoy all! And Draynay: I'm sure you know where you can go!!!!!!!!!!

12 May 2010 11:43 AM
joe schmoe

This is straight from the top,

"I see you were one that slipped through the cracks when I handed out common sense and humility. I'm deeply dissapointed in you. We will meet again on your day of reckoning and I advise you to see the errors of your ways and correct them before your day comes.

I am the creator of all and to help you go along the right path will give you a piece of advice. You seem obsessed by certain of my creations. Make no mistake about it. When I created Zenyatta I created the perfect machine so mankind could enjoy the best ever. When I created Rachael Alexandra I left something out. She hasn't lost 5 races for nothing you know. Once you create perfection there is no reason to try and duplicate it. Win or lose Zenyatta is the pinnacle of my creations in the world of race horses. Try to show some humility and accept that fact. Enjoy the best I can ever do and DO NOT question my word on this!!"  

god to draynay 12 May 2010 8:12 AM

Amen to that!!

12 May 2010 11:47 AM
Billy's Empire

I guess Tina beat IKE

12 May 2010 11:59 AM
thw_wiz

draynay,

I sure hope you are not a futures bettor. Your curse would render you bankrupt in no time. Bad enough that your pathetic attempts at handicapping slowly drain all you have.

Here's to a full recovery by Hurricane Ike who lies in the infirmary due to the dreaded draynay curse.

12 May 2010 12:04 PM
Ted from LA

Dray, If you're going to continue to curse these equine athletes, the least you can do is help out with the veterinarian bills of the owners.  Do the right thing.

12 May 2010 12:41 PM
CV

With Hurricake Ike's departure much of the early speed is gone from the Preakness. In regard to the "unspecified injury of the left hind leg," the trainer said he could have re-injured an earlier injury.

Does anyone know what his earlier injury was, which might offer some insight into his latest problem?

12 May 2010 12:45 PM
Jason Shandler

CV: I tried to ask Sadler about it this morning but he was unwilling to talk. He was kind of rude, which was not the only time I have experienced that conduct from him.

12 May 2010 1:27 PM
El Kabong

Forbidden Apple

You sound more like sour grapes! Sorry you didn’t see the super “star” breeding on Super Saver. It might have helped you from making such a pathetic choice in Awesome Act. I say that because he was on my toss out list before the derby. Your comment, “regardless of track conditions.....” is the most ridiculous criticism of a races time I have ever seen in print. Track condition has everything to do with the final time. Toss in a head wind which was run into twice in this case, and you have yet another reason for that time. But to suggest that those other horses you mentioned(all laughable except Esky) were so much better that you were left with no legitimate choice from which to chose a star is absolutely the most embarrassing excuse I’ve heard for not getting a derby pick right. What will be even more embarrassing for you is the effort Super Saver produces on a dry track this Saturday. Try to enjoy the race, I know I will. I firmly believe in the talent of this horse, and maybe you will too when runs this group into the ground at old hilltop. Perhaps then you will be able to see what you have missed all along, a legitimate Triple Crown contender right in front of you all this time. Perhaps then you will understand how absurd you sound, beause I know you don’t see it now. At least let me know what time Super Saver needs to run on a fast track at Pimilico to impress your highness.

12 May 2010 1:32 PM
Draynay

Geez. Back to the drawing board. Experts on handicapping like me can handle the bumps in the road.  I will be back shortly to share the winner of the Preak with all of you.

12 May 2010 1:59 PM
Zookeeper

El Kabong! Bong! Bong! Bong!

That's the sound I heard as you repeatedly smashed that apple right into mush!

12 May 2010 2:10 PM
jayjay

This didn't really change the scenario for me as I've always thought JB is the speed of the race, the only change now is that JB might get to steal the whole show.  I don't see anyone else going after him besides SS which really works out well for SS because now he only has to chase one rabbit :)  IF SS gets paranoid and tries to go with JB and gets burnt, then we're looking at Aikenite / Dublin / LAL and PP going for the win.

Has the post position been drawn yet ??

12 May 2010 2:24 PM
Joeywoge

Ok people, with all the defections in the Preakness we are left with zero real speed which means this race becomes more of a jockey's race. I would imagine that Jackson Bend, Super Saver and First Dude will vie for the early lead. But don't be looking for 46 or 47 for the half because it's not happening. 48 or 49 even is more likely. Advantage frontrunners. Throwout's. Dublin (hanger), Caracortado, too much to do late. Same for Aikenite & Pleasant Prince. Northern Giant, Yawanna Twist and First Dude. (All not good enough). Jackson Bend will run a better race but wants no part of 1 3/16th's, fades late. That leaves us with LAL, SS, Paddy O and Schoolyard Dreams. If First Dude decides to press the pace which I imagine will happen since Roman's has Paddy O as well. Hence leaving Paddy O to track the front runners. Kent knows this track pretty well. I don't see SS losing because he should get the perfect trip again but Paddy O if given a flawless ride can upset. Lucky will fight for 3rd with Schoolyard Dreams.

12 May 2010 2:43 PM
Joeywoge

Who thinks Zito wins the Belmont with Ice Box??

12 May 2010 2:45 PM
bellesforever

Phil boy..i am glad you noticed that lucky does look worn down..he is very drawn,considering how many bad trips he has had it comes as no surprise.I like the two Irish horses and S.S. with School yard dreams.Not sure yet as i am waiting for the draw.I also think that if they took the hood of of Dublin we all might see an improved horse.They added them before he had his throat surgery as a fix but i believe that they are hindering him..watch how he is trying to see..he is literally screaming''I want to see i am a son of Afleet Alex''.

12 May 2010 2:48 PM
goldfingerstouch

calvin tried to rate ss in ark. with an ok result. 2nd time around in the derby, all good. the preakness should be considered ss's first race on a fast track with a running style that he has fully learned and accepted. tactical speed with a willingness to rate---if he has a little turn of foot in him, he's tough to beat saturday.

12 May 2010 2:48 PM
charles enderle

yes I got it backways cul

rlin is the sire ,but I am from the old 50 percent school that the broadmire sire is stamania, good luck in your pick I had the derby exacta and tri but igot the order of breeding ass backways I appologize and we will see if the broadmare has any influence

12 May 2010 2:54 PM
jayjay

The only difference Ike's defection does is lower the number of runners.  I never thought he was going to make any impact at all.  JB is looking more and more intriguing now to place or show.

12 May 2010 3:13 PM
Canz

You guys with your Draynay Curse.  Could you guys come up with something original.  Repetative and unfunny, That's why Dray will always be funnier than you guys.  

How bout you guys go out on a limb and try some original material for once.

Don't understand all the love for SYD.  Yeah he beat Super Saver, but come on, SS was just coming off a big layoff, and surely wasn't cranked.  I like him to win the Preakness, but not sure about the Belmont.  Could be a bridge to far.

12 May 2010 3:14 PM
jayjay

Jason : are you east or west coast based ?  Seems like you talked to Sadler in person but maybe you just spoke to him on the phone.  You can still sense rudeness over the phone lol.

Waiting for the expert handicapper to pick the winner...praying it's not one of my horses...

12 May 2010 3:17 PM
Alexaso

Who cares! Rachel,Big Brown,Curlin,Bernardini,Afleet Alex,Smarty Jones,and Funny Cide would all CRUSH this field by fifteen lengths. The most pitiful Preakness I have ever seen.

12 May 2010 3:19 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

 I think your assessment is very good, but Schoolyard could pounce too. A lot of people are leaving out Aikenite but he could be very strong. Can't wait for the draw, and pps. This is an interesting race. It could come down to who is ready to run on Saturday. Anyone could be left out of the top three spots although SS always seems to be there and would probably be the biggest surprise for a top 3 no show, but it's possible.

12 May 2010 3:23 PM
Jason Shandler

You seem like a great fan of the sport and superb handicapper Alexaso. Thanks for your astute breakdown. Beat it.

12 May 2010 3:25 PM
jayjay

Jason : Do you know if Baffert is considering running Conveyance at all ?  It seems like the Preakness no longer has a true pacesetter and if Conveyance runs, he would have a legit shot at wiring the field.

12 May 2010 3:33 PM
El Kabong

goldfingerstouch,

I wouldn't be surprised at all if SS gets an early lead and rates out front, like he did in the Ky Jockey Club on a fast track at CD. I think the style he ran under Calvin's control was the best option in the Derby, but Calvin is very smart and will take advantage of any opportunity, including the opportunity to steal this race on the lead. He has the horse, he can do either, and he will make the best choice during the race. That option, in addition to breeding, current form and foundation makes this horse very tough to beat at this distance. Not saying it's impossible, just very unlikely against this group. Some would have us all believe that the Mud and Super Saver's ability to run in it, makes  him primarily  a mud horse that took advantage of a track he liked. I think the exceptional horses run in all conditions as Super Saver has proven he can. Super Saver on a fast track Saturday, with room to spare.  

12 May 2010 3:46 PM
El Kabong

Jason,

Well said regarding Alexaso. Who would call themselves that name anyway?

Alexaso, just a heads up. You haven't seen anything yet. And when you do, I don't think it will help.  

12 May 2010 3:51 PM
Billy's Empire

Get em Jason!

Draw is in an hour! Who thinks Looking at Lucky gets the 1 or 12 hole besides me? Maybe garcia will be better luck for the Silverhair??

Well, since ike is gone, I have to redo my top 4 horses. I now like SS and LAL to both finish in the top 3. Now we have to find out the third horse??? Prince? Paddy? School? who knows, just not SCRUBLIN!!

12 May 2010 4:05 PM
Alexaso

Will no one admit that this is a glorified GIII race? Take a chill pill! I will still enjoy the race. Tell me who in this field can rival Quality Road and the rest of the Classic contenders.

12 May 2010 4:08 PM
Draynay

The only horse that can give Quality Road a race is Ghostzapper and he ain't racing anymore.  QR is a beast and don't look for any 3 year to be in his league anytime soon.

12 May 2010 4:19 PM
EL Kabong

Alexaso,

These are 3 year olds, they're not supposed to be anywhere near established 4 year olds. Tell me amigo, what had Bernardini accomplished before the 2006 Preakness? Nothing really. He was a great horse, eventually, capable of competing with 4 year olds much later that year, but not at this point. You have to at least let these kids run  a few before you make such an outlandish  and unfounded statement.  

12 May 2010 4:27 PM
Joeywoge

El Kabong,

         I couldn't agree with you more. SS will be very tough to beat. I'm looking for a bomb for 2nd but I'm not finding one.

12 May 2010 4:29 PM
Ted from LA

I am betting whomever Draynay suggests in this race.  I took his past performances to a statistician and the odds of him being wrong again are astronomical.  The statistician also told me that 82% of statistics are made up on the spot.

12 May 2010 4:33 PM
jayjay

Alexaso : Pay attention please, this race is for 3 year olds, it's called the Preakness, the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.  The first leg is the Kentucky Derby, the next and last leg is the Belmont.  Go to your room, you're grounded.

Of course, Draynay would respond because QR was mentioned even though in a very stupid context.

12 May 2010 4:36 PM
Joeywoge

Quality road might be a beast but not sure how far he wants to go. Why run in the met mile when he can run in the Stephen foster. Don't look for him to run in the BC classic. He'll probably run in the BC mile.

12 May 2010 4:36 PM
TerriV

I think Super Saver is peaking at just the right time - TC time.  He's beautifully bred and talented.  He could wire it if there is no speed for him to rate.  He's got an amazing jockey who reads a horse like mind-melding.  I think Pletcher has him just right now.  So Super Saver goes on top of my list.  I'm liking the looks and works from Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams; both of which I really liked earlier in the spring.  I hate hate hate to do it but I'm moving Lookin at Lucky and Dublin down to the middle of the pack this time.  Lucky has had such a hard time of it this whole spring, I think it's got him down.  And even though I love Dublin, he just isn't firing.  I like Paddy O'Prado but not his jockey.  Caracortada is a big question mark but he could be up there.  And maybe Pleasant Prince.  Not having the stand out superstarhorse like Big Brown gives the whole TC season a different feel.  It's much more confusing and takes more work to figure out.  But that's not a bad thing.  It's actually fun this way.  I'm hoping that Super Saver sneaks up on us like Seattle Slew.  Maybe great things happen when you least expect it.  I'm hoping to get a good look at all the horses at Sunrise at Old Hilltop on Friday.  That visual impression is very important for me, but, for now, here goes:

Super Saver

Jackson Bend

Schoolyard Dreams

Pleasant Prince

Caracortado

12 May 2010 4:45 PM
CV

Lookin At Lucky finally got some luck with post position 7! That's got to help his chances.

He's right next to my Florida-bred Jackson Bend in #6. JB looks good this week. I think he'll do well on Saturday.  

12 May 2010 5:25 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Dray,

While I agree that QR will not be equalled by a 3YO for a couple months, and maybe not even at that point, you need to take one thing into account...

Your curse can take down ANY HORSE, AT ANY TIME!

Your best bet is to stop touting him while he is making his comeback and wait until late October to pump him up again and allow the rest of us to cash in on Zenyatta for the Classic!

12 May 2010 5:30 PM
Draynay

Super Saver from the 8 hole ? Not in a million years.  Jackson Bend is going out to the lead and LAL is going to press right off his shoulder.  Schoolyard will hug the rail and sit right behind them.  Around the turn they come and LAL is off and gone with Schoolyard chasing after him.  Does he catch him? Stayed tuned for "DRAYNAY'S" expert analysis.

12 May 2010 5:41 PM
jayjay

Yeah Doc, I'm looking at Schoolyard Dreams right now.  I can't put them all though, I'm not that rich lol.  Is it just me or did Mike Smith get the mount on JB ??  I just saw the post position in DRF.com and saw M. Smith on JB who is in a really nice post (6).  I think Aikenite will have to go really fast now having drawn the 1 hole but I'm sticking with him and SS.  Borel will have to get past LAL this time and I'm not quite sure how he'll do that as I think LAL will have a different running style in this race specially being inside SS.  Garcia and Gomez has totally different riding style.  I'm still sticking with my picks Aikenite / SS on top with LAL / Dublin and Pleasant Prince on the bottom.  Also, with Dublin drawing the 12th hole, he'll be gunning out of it for a good position.  This is going to be a great race!  Still hopeful for a TC run for SS, just hope he wins easily in this race, he'll have a couple of my monster picks waiting for him in the Belmont :)

12 May 2010 5:43 PM
Pam S.

Whoever said they were hoping SS would draw post 8, they got it.  I believe the reason was Seattle Slew was #4 in the Derby and #8 in the Preakness.  Could be a good omen.

12 May 2010 5:55 PM
Zarkava

Caracortado

Schoolyard Dreams

Paddy O Prado

Lookin At Lucky

12 May 2010 6:05 PM
Gary Lynn

Winningest Preakness Posts since 1919/wins last twenty years: #6-15/3...#4-13/4...#7-12/5...#3-11/1...#8-10/2...#2-11/0...#5-10/0...#1-9/1   #'s 9,10,11,12 have all won once in last twenty years.

12 May 2010 6:11 PM
Gary Lynn

Make that w. posts since 1909

12 May 2010 6:15 PM
Dutch

Terri, you mention that you hope "that Super Saver sneaks up on us like Seattle Slew." Better work on that analogy, since the brilliant Seattle Slew was champion 2-year-old and the only undefeated Triple Crown winner. A better comparison might be to Funny Cide, who truly did surprise some people.

Lookin at Lucky drew a great post, so maybe the tide has turned on his racing luck.

12 May 2010 6:23 PM
El Kabong

Joeywoge

Aikenite or Pleasant Prince could put some fat on the ticket.

12 May 2010 6:33 PM
Draynay

Super Saver 5 to 2 from the 8 hole ? Are you people nuts ?  Dublin will be taken way back and Gomez will come flying in the end to out nose SS for 3rd.  Super Saver gets 4th and LAL makes it look easy in a trouble free ride for the win.   LAL is your winner folks and clearly the best horse in this field. You will be lucky to get 3 to 1 but take it and enjoy the win.

12 May 2010 6:42 PM
Citation

stat-man-do,I don't think that there were that many horses with apostrophes who ran in the Derby, were there or were you just making it up? I'd check myself but I don't currently want to read all the Derby charts just for that. The winner with the apostrophe was Sunny's Halo. On a more serious note, I want Caracortado or Super Saver to win. I don't know who I think will actually win.

12 May 2010 6:53 PM
jayjay

I'm still on the fence about Schoolyard Dreams, I read Haskin's article about this horse (Stickball King) and it seems he's the type that runs well in the morning and flat in the afternoon...maybe working too fast in the mornings??  I don't know, I thought he should've won that TB race easily in his 3rd race back this year.

I can't afford to play all the horses though lol, I'd have to stick with my picks.  I probably will put him in the bottom spots in one of my superfecta tickets just in case.

Man this is a tough race!  Good luck all!

12 May 2010 7:06 PM
2:24

I know this is off topic but when did Quality Road become this worldbeater who cannot be overcome.  Am I wrong or has he won a bunch of races at Gulfstream Park and a Sprint at Saratoga.

As for this crop of three year olds, we hear every year from people posting on this blog that "this is a weak class of 3 year olds."  Most of these horses don't develop until later. What had Quality Road done at this time last year other than win a couple of races where he had easy trips at Gulfstream park that favors his runnig style.  I don't buy that this is a weak field or class of horses.

12 May 2010 7:32 PM
Greg J.

Thanks Dray, Why couldn't you have taken Northern Giant???

Right now, I would have to say my top four are Super Saver, Jackson Bend, Lookin at Lucky and Dublin/Schoolyard Dreams, Still undecided, UGH, Tough race to call...

BTW, In the race prior to the Preakness, The Dixie Stakes (G2), Nicanor is entered, Very tough race and field for his second race back, But, Being the race before the Preakness and at Pimlico, Emotional Day indeed...

Just decided to take the 300 mile drive down to the madness of Pimlico to get my "Preak On", lol...

12 May 2010 8:16 PM
Alexaso

Geez! I will be sure to remind you all later when we don't see any of these horses compete at the Classic level. Among this pitiful group, I will have to go with some random longshot like Yawanna Twist and box him with whoever Draynay picks since he is the only one with a clue here.

12 May 2010 8:45 PM
TerriV

Yes, I suppose that wasn't a very good analogy.  I was trying to say that in the beginning not much was expected of Slew, he auctioned for so little.  But, I definitely didn't make my point, did I?  The Triple Crown has eluded us for so long, there are a lot of non-believers, thinking it will never happen again.  We've been teased quite a few times recently by horses who seemed to have what it took from the first, but left us soooo disappointed.  No one believes in Super Saver but maybe he'll surprise us.

12 May 2010 8:51 PM
Ranagulzion

On paper this looks lke a very competitive Preakness, and so it will be until turning for home when Calvin Borel turns on the afterburners on the "concorde" that is Super Saver.  The likely scenario has Jackson Bend disputing the lead on the inside of the Derby winner with Looking At Lucky and Paddy O'Prado forwardly placed just ahead of Schoolyard Dreams, Ywanna Twist and the rest of the field in a fairly close compact with Akenite posibly trailing (if not making the running at the front end).  Borel can afford to make an early move taking Lookin At Lucky (seeking sweet redemption) with him and play catch me if you can.  I expect that Super Saver, showing further improvement, will draw off in the lane with "Scarface" (Caracortado) and Schoolyard Dreams outduelling LAL and Dublin for the minor placings. Enjoy.  

12 May 2010 9:29 PM
it ain't east bein wrong as often as draynay is

Cmon folks give Mr BS draynay a break. At least this race he's actually chosen a horse who has a chance to compete. This is not like the Derby when he was all over Noble's Promise who had no chance in h**l to finish in the money and anyone with an ounce of handicapping skill knew. I guess with 12 horses in the race his odds were better to find a competitor. What everyone should be doing is praying that the nay nay curse doesn't lead to some disaster for LAL.

12 May 2010 9:30 PM
jayjay

Did LAL's post draw means he broke the "unlucky" streak...possibly but the clown picking him sure makes me think otherwise.  

LAL will definitely be the favorite with his post draw though, I figure him running at 7-5 (specially with Draynay going all out and betting his $2 on him) with SS at probably 5-2 or 3-1...that is an excellent price!  I also think Aikenite will be there with SS so I'm sticking to my bets.  If M Garcia proves me wrong, then so be it but at this time, I don't think I would put all my money on him specially when there's other horses with better prices and it's an evenly matched race.

12 May 2010 9:40 PM
Paula Higgins

Jason, it seems rude people are the order of the day. I encountered an M.D. at work today who needs an anger management course in a hurry. Some people were at the end of the line when charm and manners were handed out.

O.k. I am rooting for Super Saver. He is my first pick. LAL is next and is in a good spot to win. Then Paddy O'Prado. Here is hoping we have a Triple Crown winner. But I think Ice Box is going to be amazing in the Belmont. I expect him to win it, unless he isn't entered due to lack of fitness or injury.

12 May 2010 9:43 PM
Monarchos Matt

PICKS:

1) Lookin at Lucky (98 Beyer, PP#7, 3-1)- Had yet another disastrous trip in the Derby from the dreaded #1 post and fell way too far back early to have a shot at the board, and still rallied impressively to finish 6th. This might actually be his ideal distance, and this is his last chance to prove he's for real as he finally gets an ideal post starting in the middle of the field. The pace scenario isn't as favorable as it was for him in the Derby, but I can't jump off now...with a clean trip, I think he's still the most talented runner in the field and will probably be positioned a bit closer to the lead. We're all still waiting for his coming out party. I just hope he isn't worn down after one of the roughest campaigns in recent memory.

2) Super Saver (104 Beyer, PP#8, 5-2)- Derby winner could very well dictate the pace, and his ascending Beyers in last three starts suggest a horse that is continuing to reach his full potential. He's impossible to leave out especially considering if he has it his way he will wire the field with ease, but if he runs into any trouble getting to the lead, it's important to remember that Borel isn't at Churchill anymore. Still, the top two appear to vastly outclass the rest of the field.

3) Schoolyard Dreams (94 Beyer, PP#2, 10-1)- Showed a strong turn of foot in the Tampa Bay Derby, beating the eventual Derby winner while getting a few pounds, and had excuses (health issues?) in his 4th place Wood Memorial finish. Aside from that effort he's never missed the board, and he is working extremely well and is fresh after missing the Derby earnings cut; all signs point to improvement in the near future. His running style should fit just fine here, as he'll enjoy a ground saving trip just behind the front runners.

4) Aikenite (91 Beyer, PP#1, 20-1)- Looked much improved in his second place Derby trial effort, closing on the winner from far back, a style that suits him much better than chasing the pace. He's been beaten twice by Jackson Bend but seemed to be gaining ground in shorter races, and may be ready to turn the tables. Closers may be up against it this time based on the likely pace scenario, but I've got to use one just in case I'm wrong- he's beaten the other deep closer Pleasant Prince pretty handily twice, so I give him the nod, and if the pace breaks down unexpectedly, who knows? Live longshot at these odds.

5) Paddy O'Prado (100 Beyer, PP#10, 9-2)- A repeat of his 3rd place Derby finish will have him in 2nd here, but how much did he benefit from the mud on Derby Day? Is he tired after that huge effort? He sure seems to change leads a lot as he tires, and he still has yet to prove himself on a dry dirt track. Looking elsewhere but admittedly frightened, and might be sorry on Saturday night, but you can't use everyone.

6) Dublin (98 Beyer, PP#12, 10-1)- Seems to be always there at the end but still refuses to pass anyone down the stretch. He improved upon each furlong in a respectable 7th place finish in the Derby, arguably his best effort to date, but hung again without any excuses. Would need to take a leap forward here and may be gassed after a pretty tough spring campaign.

7) Jackson Bend (93 Beyer, PP#6, 12-1)- Always tries, but still has distance issues. He will definitely be closer to the pace than usual in this race, which could work to his benefit if he can get away with really slow fractions, but I have a feeling Super Saver will have something to say about that. The feeling here is that this is more of an 8f horse, and that making the lead will likely make those last 300 yards even more difficult than usual.

9) Pleasant Prince (99, PP#3, 20-1)- Flattered by Ice Box's 2nd place finish in the Derby; he lost to that one by a nostril in the Florida Derby but that effort has looked somewhat like a fluke since. He had excuses in a dismal Blue Grass over polytrack but didn't really fire or make a strong move in his next outing in the Derby Trial even with its fast fractions, and was beaten handily buy some of these there. He probably needs a much hotter pace (46ish, like what he got at Gulfstream in his best race to date) than he will get here.

10) Caracortado (98, PP#9, 10-1)- Closing type is talented and will probably get some support at the windows but won't have a super hot pace to run at. He moves to dirt for the first time, but distance figures and pedigree suggest this isn't his best spot.

11) First Dude (90, PP#11, 20-1)- He'll probably be close to the pace as well and deserves a close look based on his field-high Tomlinson distance rating. He's actually a half brother to Schoolyard Dreams, both sired by Stephen Got Even, so I suppose if I like that one I have to respect him as well. I just don't think he has demonstrated the same versatility and turn of foot, and he's still waiting for an above average speed figure. Pleasant Prince had his number in the Florida Derby and Paddy O'Prado beat him handily in the Blue Grass, so I can't play him.

12) Yawanna Twist (96 Beyer, PP#5, 30-1)- I have to admit that I was impressed with his Gotham performance, as he closed hard to nearly overtake winner Awesome Act, another strong closer. However, as mentioned, I don't feel like this is a race to play more than one closer in, and he is probably a step behind in terms of class.

13) Northern Giant (92 Beyer, PP#4, 30-1)- Probably the only horse in the field that I can't really make a case for. Seems like he needs a shorter race and a sloppier track.

12 May 2010 9:44 PM
Don't call me daugther!!

MMMmmm.... PIE!!

12 May 2010 9:52 PM
2:24

They pay to 5th place in the Derby.  Noble's Promise finished 5th.  Hence, he was "in the money."

12 May 2010 9:57 PM
howdy

Can anyone tell me why RULE is not running in the Preakness??  I know supposedly he wasn't training well up to the Derby...but statements by Winstar were that they were preparing him for the Preakness.  I hope not running him isnt because they (Winstar/Pletcher) are afraid he will beat their other horse Super Saver? Please fill me in. Thanks

12 May 2010 10:36 PM
Draynay

Jason, I worked out my fresh horse ticket and here it is box these 5 and toss Super Saver.  Pleasant Prince, Yawanna Twist, LAL, Caracortado and School Yard Dreams. If the fresh horse run it could be a HUGE ticket.

12 May 2010 10:53 PM
Draynay

Taking up space on Saturday.

Aikenite- won his maiden and has not seen the wire since PASS

Northern Giant- Unless it comes up wet this horse finishes dead last

First Dude- Is a First Dud. Has no business being in graded stakes races

Paddy O'Prado- Bounce... Bounce...

12 May 2010 11:06 PM
sodapopkid

Oh, gosh, darn it!!  Now LAL wont' win either, Dray has picked him, that means he is voodooed under the 'draynay jinx', aka Jinxie Dray'

12 May 2010 11:07 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

     Call me a fool?  I decided in the last few hours to go down to Pimlico once I saw Nicanor entered, And of course all the other great races, But, It just dawned on me, I have tickets to Pearl Jam at the XL Center in Hartford on Saturday night!  Oh Well, I guess I will give them away!  Question, How hard do you think it will be to get tickets Saturday morning for Pimlico?  I would guess a scalper?  How was the concert I will be missing ?

12 May 2010 11:14 PM
Jason Shandler

Greg, Greg, Greg. We know each other pretty well, so I believe I am entitled to say this to you: Dont be foolish!! Stay in Hartford and go to the PJ show. They are on fire right now. They rarely come up to CT so take advantage while you can. You wont regret it. Trust me. They are the best rock band in the last 30+ years. Hands down. There isnt even a close second. You can go to the Preakness any year. Go see Eddie and the boys so you can tell your grandchildren that you saw the best. It's not too late my friend. Reconsider the error of your ways. Nicanor has no chance anyway.

BTW, Dray told me one time his favorite band is Green Day. Green Day?!? Their fan base consists mainly of 13 year-old girls. I guess it does explains a lot about Dray though. Green Day??

12 May 2010 11:39 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

     First on Draynay's favorite band, Green Day, It makes total sense, Come on, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" and "American Idiot", Enough said on that...

     Second, I agree 100 percent on Pearl Jam being the best in last 30 years, But, I have seen them twice and I am sure they will come back, Maybe not Hartford, But, New York or Boston, So I will be there when they do.  I can't miss Preakness Day with the great card and alot of horses I like, Plus, Of course, Nicanor being the main reason(I wouldn't say he has no chance, Tough race though!).  I see your point though, If I had never seen Pearl Jam, I would take your advice...

13 May 2010 12:03 AM
marktoothaker

Jason,

Caught up with Elliott Walden today talking Super Saver and the new contest Winstar is having to let fans name Super savers little brother. I think you will enjoy it. Also talked with Mike today about Caracortado and he said they are going to the lead. Check out both videos at

http://www.thederbydream.com/

13 May 2010 12:05 AM
mz

Well, my Derby picks were a disaster.  The story I'm sticking to, tho, is that they all had excuses (don't they always).

About the Preakness, I've been spending too much time over at Jason's previous Triple Crown Talk, the Millenium Blog, so I don't appear to have too much time to pick my (future) disasters...so, to shortcircuit the process: who's Draymay picking?

And re: the Belmont: anyone know if there will be any fillies in the mix?

13 May 2010 12:07 AM
jayjay

Greg J : Don't listen to Jason, stay at Pimlico!  You can always buy the PJ cd lol.  Sell your PJ ticket and bet it all on Super Saver, win or lose, imagine the story you can tell your grandchildren!  If SS wins, they'll look at you as a hero, if SS loses, well...I'm sure they'll say "It's OK, grandpa, we still love you" and probably get a hug and kiss with it.

13 May 2010 12:12 AM
Rechelle

Gary Lynn, I'm just not sure how anyone can make a judgement on whether or not Lucky is a dirt horse based on one win, not when all his other races were on synthetic.  I'm sure my other posts on other blogs have sounded anti-Lucky, which I'm not, I'm just not sure about his dirt ability.  We'll see on Saturday I guess.  I'm still rooting against him though, I want to have a horse go into the Belmont with the Derby & Preakness wins and give us a chance at a triple crown.  Lucky can come in second by a head. :)

13 May 2010 12:17 AM
Rechelle

Slew, so if Lucky has a bad race Saturday, who is Baffert going to throw under the bus for that one?  It's the same thing that Dutrow & IEAH did to Kent Desormeaux after Big Brown's failure to fire at the Belmont, until they saw that BB had a solid reason for not running.  So, who will Baffert blame if Lucky doesn't run the way he sould like him to?  His new jockey on him?  The track?  Other jockeys?  I like Baffert normally but I don't like how he's doing Gomez right now.  It would be a kind of karma if Dublin beat Lucky.

13 May 2010 12:20 AM
Rechelle

Jason, why don't you think Nicanor has a chance?  Granted he is coming off a huge layoff, but other than that, why doesn't he have a chance?  He's proven he is a talented turf horse.  I think Matz is being overly cautious with Nicanor & Lentenor right now.  I almost hope that the Jackson's don't use him for the yearling that is coming up.  Send him to Pletcher or Asmussen or Baffert.  Someone who will get the horse ready and maybe run at 2 and have a shot towards the Derby.  

13 May 2010 12:23 AM
CV

"Jackson Bend is going out to the lead and LAL is going to press right off his shoulder."--draynay

Dray, Jackson Bend is a close-up stalker who likes to travel right behind the leaders in third or fourth.

It's a little scary for me to think I like Lookin At Lucky, too, since you picked him to win.

Greg J.,

Hopefully, NBC will show the Dixie Stakes since it's right before the Preakness. Not sure it's a good thing that Nicanor drew the far outside post #13, but at least he shouldn't get pinched at the rail like so many seem to do.

13 May 2010 1:14 AM
sodapopkid

Gosh,  GREEN DAY??  I second that motion, Jason.  HOw old is Dray, 19??  

13 May 2010 6:12 AM
sodapopkid

Greg J, Take Dray with you to the Pearl Jam concert and show that fella what real music is all about............

13 May 2010 6:15 AM
Slew

I have to think that because of Calvin's determination, Super Saver can do it again.  With a "luckier" post, I'd say LAL is in the money.  Then I'd throw in First Dude (I really like him) and POP.  I liked Schoolyard Dreams's run in Tampa, but was less than impressed by the Wood, where he tired after a mile.

13 May 2010 8:29 AM
Rechelle

mz, right now there doesn't appear to be any fillies aiming for the Belmont.  I don't think they'll be trying Devil May Care against the boys for awhile and I don't think she could handle the mile and a half that the Belmont is.  She didn't seem to handle the distance of the Derby.  I don't think there are any stronger 3yo fillies this year, at least not at this point in the season.  

13 May 2010 9:08 AM
Rechelle

CV, if the Dixie Stakes are right before the Preakness, they likely will show it.  I really hope they do, I'd love to see Nicanor finally win a stakes race.  I had been so excited about the Virginia Derby where he was the morning line favorite and was disappointed when he came up injured.

13 May 2010 9:11 AM
tcc

And re: the Belmont: anyone know if there will be any fillies in the mix?

mz 13 May 2010 12:07 AM

Todd Pletcher was pointing Devil May Care toward's the Belmont, I have not read anything lately if he still plan's to do this.

13 May 2010 9:27 AM
CURLINLOVER

Oh, no! Draynay is now picking my favorite to win the Preakness! And he's also playing it safe by picking the top 5! Convenient, Dray! Then, you can always drop whatever horse your curse hits and stick with the rest! But Draynay picking my favorite scares the daylights out of me! How much unluck can Looking at Lucky get? Now, he has to deal with the Draynay curse! Not fair! Let's all root for LAL getting a fair trip at least - even if he shouldn't win it! I want him to come out of it whole and sound despite the Draynay curse! I swear you're evil, Draynay! And I don't understand why people put up with your eternal garbage and flip-flops! Or do you, folks? Jason, can't you ban this trashtalker from these blogs?

13 May 2010 9:38 AM
CV

"I think Matz is being overly cautious with Nicanor & Lentenor right now. I almost hope that the Jackson's don't use him for the yearling that is coming up.  Send him to Pletcher or Asmussen or Baffert.  Someone who will get the horse ready and maybe run at 2 and have a shot towards the Derby."

Nicanor was injured, and is coming back now, remember? You would want to push him to do more?

Also, Michael Matz tried Lentenor in the Florida Derby to see how he would handle the traffic in a Stakes race and he lugged in and ran like a green colt. That's why Matz is regrouping with him as well. He said he wants to get a few more lower grade races in Lentenor before targeting the Travers Stakes.

We need to remember that by the time he was 3, Barbaro had progressed much farther in maturity and ability than his younger brothers did by 2009 and 2010, respectively. Matz didn't hesitate to send him to the Kentucky Derby because he was ready to compete in top company.

Nicanor and Lentenor are not carbon copies of Barbaro, Rechelle. Not all horses are ready to run at 2 and rushing them to do so if they're not ready is asking for disaster.

Personally, I'm glad Michael Matz is looking out for the abilities of each individual horse, rather than pushing them to run as you suggest.

13 May 2010 10:27 AM
Draynay

As the handicapping expert on this blog I feel it is my duty to remind you that Lookin At Lucky has more Grade 1 wins then the rest of the field combined.  If that stat doesn't lead you to the Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky then no one can help you.

13 May 2010 10:46 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

CV

  You are so right, and I applaud Mike Matz for doing the right thing. Looking forward to see what Lentenor can do as he matures. He is the second most talented of the 3. Neither can compare to Barbaro, but through Lentenor we might get a glimpse of Barbaro.

13 May 2010 10:58 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jason

  The greatest I saw was Bruce Sprinsteen in his prime in the late 70's. I think it might have been 1978 and 1980. I saw him twice. Non stop allout performance for 3 1/2 hours.

13 May 2010 11:09 AM
Tiznowbaby

Green Day? I would have pegged Dray as a Justin Bieber fan.

And no one can do better than George Strait.

13 May 2010 11:27 AM
CURLINLOVER

Draynay, your overblown ego is unbelievable! Who do you think you are to declare yourself the overall expert on everything equine? Are you really seeking to look bad and be unpopular among the rest of us - not talking about making yourself look like a fool? You're certainly accomplishing the latter; and anybody on your side choose to be your equal in looking like fools! To be that arrogant is not only a turn-off, but downright obnoxious! But maybe obnoxiousness is your only true "quality"?

13 May 2010 11:37 AM
tcc

Satuday May 15th Pimlico Race Course,TV: NBC 4:30 p.m.to 6:30 EDT

13 May 2010 11:50 AM
KY Kid

Hate to date myself but on the concert talk:  Saw Lynyrd Skynyrd in 1973 in a tobacco warehouse in Bowling Green, Ky.  They're 1st album was just out but nobody had really heard of them.  There were about 300 people there so all of us were gathered around a 4-foot stage drinkin Jack D. & rollin smoke, when they played "Dixie" and rolled down the rebel flag and Skynyrd broke into the song "Workin for MCA" it was pretty special.  As you might guess last song of night was "Freebird" and I was right in front of Van Zant...first time I'd ever heard it and you can imagine the rest...amazing.

13 May 2010 12:26 PM
Jason Shandler

Good story KY Kid. Great era of music...

13 May 2010 12:29 PM
the_wiz

KY Kid,

There's none better than Skynyrd. I've seen them live since the 70's nearly 20 times and will see them again here soon. There music just never gets old.

13 May 2010 12:35 PM
jayjay

Rechelle : I think the Baffert / Gomez separation was mutual.  I think Gomez himself knows what's going on and from what his agent said, they understand his decision.  Baffert also told him it's possible that it's a one time deal.  He might get Lucky back although I doubt it.  The point is, these are horsemen, they know how the game is, luck is a big part of this game whether you like it not.  Gomez will definitely still ride for Baffert, he's not crying over it, he landed on a good horse.  

Dorf might be thinking about entering Blind Luck in the Belmont, that would make it interesting.  It suits her running style.

13 May 2010 1:53 PM
Draynay

Curlinlover, welcome to the Draynay fan club.  I am always happy to greet and talk to new fans. I am a little busy with current autograph seekers but I promise to get to you when I can.

13 May 2010 2:04 PM
CURLINLOVER

Draynay! Do not flatter yourself! You have NO fans!!! Me least of all! Your gall is unmatched; your self-centeredness unbelievable; your idiocy totally over the edge! I only wish you bad luck in ALL your bets - as long as all horses are safely over the finish line! Boy! You really must suffer from lack of self-confidence to tout yourself as an over-blown know-it-all! I cannot for the life of me understand Jason accepting you on this blog! Your only goal must be to aggravate people - fooling yourself into thinking you actually have fans! Do you not even care how foolish you come out in your self-centeredness? whether Jason lets my blog here through, I do not know; The rest of you! Please enjoy the Preakness as we all should - except Draynay who'll lose again in every way!

Bad luck, buddy!

Go LAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

13 May 2010 2:47 PM
Draynay

Curlinlover, you like me you really like me !  All my fans get a free T Shirt sent to them all I need is to know which shirt you want...the "Draynay is the only way!" or the "Draynay is my hero" shirt. Oh and your parents address.

13 May 2010 3:14 PM
CURLINLOVER

Draynay! The curse is now on YOU!!!!!!!!!!

13 May 2010 3:18 PM
TerriV

Greg J,

We have an extra grandstand ticket for Preakness Day.  Bought 5 expecting someone to come who backed out at the last minute.  Are you interested?   It's me, my two daughters and son-in-law.  I was really regretting wasting that ticket.  

13 May 2010 3:21 PM
Ted from LA

My superfecta:

1.  The Boss

2.  Frank Sinatra

3.  George Strait

4.  Harry Chapin

13 May 2010 3:44 PM
Jason Shandler

Ted: I thought you had to be from Jersey to like Bruce?

13 May 2010 3:51 PM
Ted from LA

Vacation there.  Remember, Jason, I wouldn't live in LA if you bought me a house and give me 20 racehorses to own without bills.

13 May 2010 4:07 PM
sodapopkid

KYkid,   Yes, indeed , the 70's music is the best music even in todays world,  I love alot of the 80's music, but you cannot ever get away from the 70's era of music.

My cd bag is filled with mostly seveties music .  I only like the old country music, can't stand the past the past 25 years of it, not country music person at all. Give me the seventies rock thats good enough for me.  OF all skynerd's music, Freebird, and 'That Smell' are two of my favorites,  I love Led Zepplin, I just love the seventies any way you want to give them to me. and some 60's music too..........and the 80's rock is the bomb tooo.........

13 May 2010 4:07 PM
Jason Shandler

I love Southern Cali. Great people, great beaches, great vibe, average horses :)

1. PJ

2. Zepplin

3. Stones

13 May 2010 4:14 PM
Greg J.

TerriV,

      That would be GREAT!!!

Jason,

    Can you forward my e-mail address to Terri?  Thanks...

13 May 2010 4:20 PM
Carlos in Cali

My 1st concert is still the best: Tom Petty with The Police(83')@ 12 yrs.old no less. Yeah,..I had many 'firsts' that night. :) :}  Oh,the show was jamming too. lol.  Also caught & enjoyed PJ @ the 1st ever Lollapalooza Tour(92/93/94'?)but, Soundgarden & Jane's Addiction owned that show.PJ rocked though..

Anyway,LaL should take the Preakness w/a better trip this time. SS for 2nd & I'll use the longshot First Dude underneath.

13 May 2010 4:21 PM
Greg J.

Thanks Jason...

Hey, Are you going to Pimlico Saturday?

13 May 2010 4:40 PM
Slew

The 70's????   QUEEN!!!!  Credance Clearwater Revival...The Band!

Rechelle: Gomez was not thrown under the bus...he'll still be riding for Baffert long after you get tired of blogging.  It was the chemistry between Go-Go and LAL that was not working out....and the decision was mutual.

13 May 2010 6:57 PM
Footlick

Best concert I ever saw was Siouxsie and the Banshees.  Nobody prowled a stage like Siouxsie.  Great music in a great explosive era.  Other concerts from then: Adam and the Ants, Bow Wow Wow, X, Black Flag.

13 May 2010 7:44 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick

Funny you mentioned Siouxie,they where @ Lollapalooza too.She brought Ice-T onto the stage,go figure. My oldest brother was also a fan of the local band X. The guy loved taking me to concerts when I was a young Lad...for 'smuggling' purposes though.LOL.

Ok,now back to my Music library...good times/bad times. Cheers all!

13 May 2010 8:43 PM
Footlick

Siouxsie was just an icon.   She was already a legend when you saw her, but they were still hungry back in the 80's.  Was that around the Peep Show era?  She later formed the band the Creatures with her then husband Budgie.  He was the percussionist.  Robert Smith had already split from the Banshees and formed the Cure by the time you saw her.   She owned the stage, very fierce and predatory.  X was an amazing band.  We would drive down from SF to see them and Black Flag.  Music was just so primal then.  I also saw Grace Jones when she had just released her second New Wave funk albums- her androgynous period produced by Sly and Robbie out of Jamaica.  Wicked fun.  The only person close to that for me now was early PJ Harvey.

13 May 2010 11:41 PM
Rechelle

jayjay, can Blind Luck get the distance though?  A mile & a half is a distance that a lot of fillies can't get, since they've never been stretched out that far.  Rags to Riches was a rare exception.  I don't know that it's worth entering Blind Luck into the Belmont, there are a lot of other races against the boys that she can run in and get the distance, including the Haskell & the Travers.  It'd be cool to see a filly there, you don't normally see one, but I'm just concerned about the distance.  I can't remember, what's the longest distance that she's run?

14 May 2010 12:11 AM
Rechelle

CV, I know that Nicanor and Lentenor aren't copies of Barbaro, but Lentenor has the talent that a slightly more aggressive campaign might have put him into the Derby.  Nicanor definitely isn't like Barbaro, it took him a lot longer to mature and he doesn't like dirt at all.  He's very talented though, in his own right, on the turf.  Lentenor matured more along the lines of how Barbaro did.  I just feel that Matz isn't utilizing their abilities like he did with Barbaro.  Lentenor could've gone into the Derby, had Matz started entering him into stakes races sooner, in my opinion.  But I do think Lentenor will need blinkers, like Nicanor did.  As soon as the blinkers were put on Nicanor, he smashed his maiden.  I enjoy watching Nicanor & Lentenor race, they are both talented horses.  I enjoy watching all horses race.  Heck, any equestrian event I enjoy.  Jumping is my first love with racing close behind it.

14 May 2010 12:16 AM
Householder

California Uber Alles!  by the late 70's bay area punk rockers the Dead Kennedys.  Green Day wouldn't be fit to carry their instruments.  I recently saw UC Berkely students running out onto the freeway to protest fee hikes.  Now if we could just get Moss/Bo out on the Business 80 to save the CA horse racing industry.  

14 May 2010 2:00 PM
Householder

Rechelle: 1 1/8th.  Blind Luck has spent some time (an loses) around a mile oval.  

14 May 2010 2:01 PM
Carlos in Cali

If they run that tiny little filly Blind Luck in the Belmont it'll break her constitution.She's all heart,but the males would put a severe whuppin' on her.

14 May 2010 3:40 PM
TerriV

Greg J,  Sorry to be so late answering your email but I did get back to you earlier today.  I'll check for your response later.  Quite a Black-Eyed Susan!!  So glad all are ok.

14 May 2010 6:39 PM
Householder

Hollendorfer's campain of Blind Luck has been pretty good so far (I don't think she has ever been off the board) and her defeats are typically a head or a length (just her running style, and she wants no part of a mile because she can't get cranked up in time).  No way this master horseman points her towards the Belmont. He has not won all those races by putting horses where they don't belong.  The Oaks was the aim all along.  She'll probably get some rest now before Del Mar.    Night night "Little Polyetta."  

14 May 2010 7:38 PM
Householder

X.  "She had to leave...Los Angeles.  She found it hard to say goodbye to her very best friend."

Billy Zoom.  How cool was he on guitar?  I read where Exene was recently diagnosed with MS.  

14 May 2010 7:49 PM
Rechelle

Thanks, Householder!  I couldn't remember what Blind Luck's farthest distance was.  They definitely should not run her in the Belmont Stakes, that's too much of an increase.  If they want to stretch her out, then try her at 10 furlongs (mile & a quarter), but not a jump to a mile & a half.  Before the Derby, what was the longest distance that Devil May Care ran?  Still a mile & an eighth? That's probably her best distance right now, she definitely tired going into the final stretch at the Derby.  Hopefully, Pletcher will keep her running against fillies for now, once she's older & more mature she could probably handle running with the boys.

15 May 2010 1:46 AM
Manoa Tommy

"She bought a clock on Hollywood Blvd. the day she left."

Jason - the 1

15 May 2010 11:49 AM
nancy

supersavers little brother should be called super spectaculer,,,,or gazing at a star

15 May 2010 7:01 PM
sodapopkid

First Dude- Is a First Dud. Has no business being in graded stakes races--Dray

Re:  He fooled you didn't he, Dray?

came in second in the Preakness.

He looked damn good to me in this race.

15 May 2010 7:06 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Sodapopkid I didn't see First Dude running a race like that but I will never have him off my ticket again it cost me 17k. Like I said a STAR WAS BORN on Saturday and his name is First Dude.  But it still tasted good cashing all those win tickets on LAL.  The Handicapping Legend...Draynay

16 May 2010 8:54 AM
Gary Lynn

Garrett Gomez, double agent, Dublin-0- hey, 7 horse won!

16 May 2010 7:08 PM
Tim G

So you got security to escort you out with the 'big' win? Choking on the chalk......

16 May 2010 8:26 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Saturday was a great day for a chalk eater like me Tim.  What a great day.

17 May 2010 9:22 AM

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