Preakness 135 Picks

As I spelled out in a blog earlier this week, I think Super Saver will have a tough task winning the Preakness, but I also think the Derby winner will run well and would be surprised if he didn't hit the board. I just believe he is worth trying to beat.

I would be surprised if Super Saver wasn't on or very close to the lead this time, especially without expected pacesetters A Little Warm and Hurricane Ike in the field. The horse is very tactical, which gives Calvin Borel options, but Todd Pletcher said he has no problem with Super Saver being up front. My guess is that he will follow Yawanna Twist and Jackson Bend into the first turn. He should be a factor the whole way.

My pick, like it was in the Derby, is Lookin At Lucky. The horse never got to run his race after being bumped hard right off the bat, and was basically closing on horses around the second turn without having any real chance to win.

I still feel as though Lookin At Lucky is the best 3-year-old out there. He is a three-time grade I winner and a champion. He just hasn't had the chance to prove it in his last two. Chalk it up to bad luck. Baffert decided to switch riders to change that luck, and if the draw was any indication (lucky No. 7), the colt will finally get a chance to run his race. If he does get the trip, he should be mid-pack early, make a strong move on the turn, and take over from Super Saver and Jackson Bend at the top of the lane.

Ok, so I like Lookin At Lucky and Super Saver in my top three. Not very exciting. The trick then, for me, is to find a price horse to fill out my trifectas and supers. There are four that I'll use:

Schoolyard Dreams (15-1): He has kind of become the wise guy horse over the past few days, so that scares me a bit. But I've liked him for a while now and I think he comes into the race the right way. He is fresh off a six-week break, has a pair of bullet works, and gets underrated rider Eibar Coa. He has an explosive turn of foot and should be moving around the turn with Lucky. Im not sure he can sustain the bid, but he has a big chance for a piece.

Caracortado (12-1): A lot was made of the terrible trip Lookin At Lucky had in the Santa Anita Derby. Watch the race again. Caracortado had a worse trip. That race was a complete toss for him too, and now he comes in fresh with three good works under his belt. The California-bred gelding never runs a bad race. He has two wins on the Hollywood Cushion Track, which is similar to dirt and he broke his maiden on the Fairplex dirt. I expect Caracortado to be much close to the pace than he was in his last two. Look at his line from his two stakes wins. It's tough to make up ground at Pimlico and Mike Machowsky knows it. I have a feeling this guy will be overlooked a bit at the windows and that's fine with me.

First Dude (20-1): Since I like the two favorites, I have to take a stand against the third choice, Paddy O'Prado. I'm going to take a chance that he bounces in his fourth race in a 10-week span. Just a hunch. Instead, I'll use Romans' other horse, who is barely getting noticed. First Dude was beaten only a length by Paddy in the Blue Grass and that was after a poor start. He also had a troubled trip in the Florida Derby, yet still ran respectably. He was flattered last weekend when Fly Down, a horse he lost to by a head back in February, blew away the Dwyer field. He enters off a bullet work at Churchill. This guy has a nice chance to hit the board at a huge price.

Yawanna Twist (30-1): Don't love him, but he should be on or close to the lead since he draws inside of both Jackson Bend and Super Saver. Ran well in his first two stakes tries, both runner-up efforts. The Gotham was especially good when he made up a ton of ground on Awesome Act. Lightly-raced colt that could have trouble getting the distance, but is not out of the realm of possibility to slop up for third or fourth. Worth using.

I will play a small win ticket on Lookin At Lucky and wheel him in exactas with Super Saver, Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado, First Dude, and Yawanna Twist. I'll also play a variety of tris and supers usingthose same six horses.

Good luck to all. Have a great Preakness day. Haven't had a chance to ‘cap the undercard yet, but be sure to join Tom and me for the one-hour live blogs on Friday and Saturday from noon-1 p.m. eastern. We can go over those races at that time.

234 Comments

Leave a Comment:

ABulldogger

Dublin wins out of the 12th hole like his daddy. Love Caracortado, read that his trainer will try to send him to the lead or close. Dublin wheeled on top of him and SS. Through in Aikenite in the tri's and sup. Like his last race of a 96 beyer, looks sharp.

13 May 2010 12:40 PM
Brian Appleton

Nice picks, my top three are the same except that I substituted Jackson Bend for Schoolyard Dreams and put Schoolyard Dreams as my fourth choice.

13 May 2010 12:42 PM
Trebloc

I actually think Super Saver will run his best race on Saturday.  Super Saver is the only horse who's numbers continue to improve. I love the fact that it is Super Saver's 4th start off the layoff.  Remember what he did last Nov., in his fourth start.  

We need a Triple Crown winner or else the horse business is doomed.  Super Saver will save the industry.  

13 May 2010 12:44 PM
Footlick

I like Lookin at Lucky, Caracortado, Super Saver and Jackson Bend.  Dublin's thoro-graph numbers are as good as anyone's though.  I don't underestimate Mr Lukas.  But with his post looks like he'll be wide.

13 May 2010 12:56 PM
Ranagulzion

It seems that the "Scarface" connections are planning a bold front-running gambit with Caracortado ...hmm ...very interesting. However I just can't see anyone stopping Super Saver right now.  He's got the speed, tractability, versatility, improvement trajectory, stamina, finishing kick, Todd Pletcher training genius and competent pigskin-skills of Mr Calvin Borel to put away this bunch.  An ambitious Caracortado is my pick to run second whether on the lead or from off the pace, with Schoolyard Dreams bettering Lookin At Lucky and Dublin in the scramble for the other minor placings.  

Jackson Bend and Paddy O'Prado will keep everybody honest for the first seven furlongs, after which THE QUESTION OF CLASS COMES INTO PLAY.  The Preakness is never won by a dud folks.  the Preakness often confirms which one is the class act of the crop.  Usually when the Derby goes a bit funky due to the clutter of 20 horses or a sloppy track or some abberation in the running at Churchill Downs, the Preakness sorts things out or CONFIRMS who is the "head honcho" of the 3YO crop.  This year will be no different.  In the unfortunate absence of Eskendereya, Super Saver wears the crown ...therefore, let Lookin At Lucky with a good draw, Derby & Preakness maestro Bob Baffert and tough young jock Martin Garcia try to prove otherwise (no excuses admissible this time) ...a good tactical race is in store ...and the best 3YO colt will win.  Ranagulzion told you so.  

13 May 2010 1:08 PM
Pedigree Shelly

   Jason,your picks are about the same as mine but. I couldn't leave Paddy O' Prado out of the exotics just yet ! I know Dublin has Gomez as a jockey, but I still see him spinning his wheels in the stretch again ! I wish Dublin could win this one for his sire , I just dont see it Happening :(

13 May 2010 1:12 PM
KMAUER

SUPER SAVER

CARACORTADO

YAWANNA TWIST

PADDY O'PRADO

13 May 2010 1:15 PM
Householder

Spot on Jason.  How many fantastic favorites or co-favorites have lost the Derby only to come right back and take the Preakness. Another recent Smart Stike colt immediately comes to mind. Considering he started back in 18th with Ice Box, I would say that after Ice Box, he ran the second best race.  We all know he flattened out at the 1/8th cause he is only capable of that short sustained "Breeder's Cup" type run...not one from the coulds.  Excluding RA, the last 23 of the 25 years have produced a Preakness winner that FIRST ran in the Derby.  This translates to, if you were not good enough for the Derby you are not good enough for the Preakness.  RA was the exception.  Bet the "Fab-5" for the win or a newcomer who won their last race by 15-20 lengths. Those are the rules.

13 May 2010 1:17 PM
AMMAX

Lucky, Saver, Pleasant Prince, Aikenite, box it and clean up.

13 May 2010 1:22 PM
Householder

Dray is picking Lookin and Lucky?  Expect a sea gull to spook the horse, breaking through the gate, unseating the jockey, running off down the back stretch into the stable area before he is scratched.  

13 May 2010 1:23 PM
Ravenswood Matt

I agree completely with your analysis of how this race figures develop, and also believe that LAL will probably walk away the victor. However, I think JB hangs on for place, and might potentially steal it on the front end. Zito obviously plans on having the horse take the early lead, as he had him work a  fast 4f this week. The question is: can he hang on?

For me it will be a JB-LAL exacta box with SD and SS thrown into the deeper exotics.

I also regret leaving out POP, but feel he will be bet way too much for a horse that is unproven on (dry) conventional dirt.

13 May 2010 1:59 PM
-Keelerman

Hi Jason;

Good post. I like your picks, but I'm going to stick with Dublin, Super Saver, and Caracortado.

I don't see Dublin as a come from behind horse. Yes, he doesn't exactly sprint to the front, but he's never that far back either. In the Derby, he was forced to drop way back and make his run on the far turn, which I feel left him empty in the final eighth of a mile.

In the Preakness, I wouldn't be surprised to see him running in third or fourth. In the Arkansas Derby, he ran third while chasing a fast pace and nearly got the job done.

So those are my picks as of right now. I'll be back closer to the race with my final picks.

But no matter who I pick to win, I will be cheering for Super Saver.

-Keelerman

13 May 2010 2:00 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Three horse box SS, LAL and Caracortado.

I think Schoolyard Dreams could be someone's nightmare, but I don't expect any others to be close.

13 May 2010 2:04 PM
voucher2002

Some horses always find a way to get into trouble...and LAL appears to be one of them. I didn't think his SA Derby was that bad..and all though he did get pinched, shuffled, etc in the KD, perhaps he just is not the horse that he was at 2. This race should show us that kind of racehorse he really is..provided he stays out of trouble....but I will leave him out the first two places in all my tris and supers.  

13 May 2010 2:44 PM
It's been 31 years and is 21.5 furlongs away

I'm trying to piece together what is an uncertain pace scenario, and the big question with that is, will the pace be slow enough that you can rule out the closers (Schoolyard Dreams and Pleasant Prince)?

Right now i'm probably leaning exacta box, Jackson Bend, Lucky, Super Saver, and Caracortado, but i wouldn't be too surprised to see Schoolyard Dreams on the board...

13 May 2010 2:45 PM
Draynay

Super Saver is a tired horse.  He freaks in the mud but there won't be any in the PREAK.  So what are you people thinking?  This horse got beat by Line of David !!!  Betting against a 3 time G1 winner in this race just makes no sense. SS may have trouble hitting the board if Dublin catches him at the wire.  Bet it all on LAL for the win.

13 May 2010 2:47 PM
Billy's Empire

If you bet on Dublin, you are going to lose your money. He is not like his daddy, who actually won races as a three year old. bet him with someone else's money.

As far as picks go, Jason's buddy James Scully picked First Dude, Scarface, and Schoolyard Dreams.

As I stated in the blog before, and like Jason, I have a feeling the top two, LAL and SS will finish in the money, so I am going to add SYD, Scarface, and Jackson Bend to the tickets.

If dublin or Paddy beat me for third, so be it.

bet First Dude at 20-1 or higher, for the Dray of it!!!

13 May 2010 2:51 PM
jayjay

I still don't get the SD angle, I'll probably lose a lot of money for leaving that horse out.  I'm sticking to my picks though :

Aikenite / SS on top with LAL, Dublin and Pleasant Prince.  I'll probably end up adding Jackson Bend when all's said and done.  I'll have to look at the horses during the post parade to see if I can find the winner.

I'll probably play fitty cent superfectas just to get all these horses on my ticket lol, as long as LAL doesn't win, I might make a profit.  LAL will probably go off at 7-5.

I'm also not sold on scarface yet, just don't think he can handle the distance, he's never been in a race this big, don't know how he'll handle a big crowd like this, he might get spooked.

13 May 2010 2:55 PM
Trebloc

Draynay,

SS's win in the Jockey Club was on a fast track.

13 May 2010 3:01 PM
dustywhipp

Caracortado, Schoolyard Dreams, Lookin At Lucky.

The underdog from CA will come out on top. Caracortado is a good, good horse.

13 May 2010 3:07 PM
Virgil Fox

Any thoughts - positive or negative - on Schoolyard Dreams vanning over from Monmouth Park the morning of the race?

Advantages/Disadvantages/Neither?

- Peace

13 May 2010 3:21 PM
Freetex

I think Super Saver can do it again.  I'll put him on top with Schoolyard Dreams over Coracortado, LAL, and Aikenite.

13 May 2010 3:23 PM
Draynay

Aikenite ? What does ANYONE see it that horse ? The horse can't make it 1 1/8th lol.  Jayjay having that horse on your ticket is the same as buying a lottery ticket.  The odds are about the same near 0 !!! Back to handicapping school for you.

13 May 2010 3:26 PM
mg

Jason, Well capped. We are in the same boat with one exception. Have to disagree with Jackson Bend - don't believe he wants to go long. Leave the bounce theory alone and stay with Paddy underneath. Romans trains like the old school boys, if he stops the lead switching he'll be a factor. However I think you're spot on with Lucky & Super Saver in the 1-2 slot. Let's hope that "Gravedigger Dray" hasn't put the whammy on LAL. Best of luck to all.

13 May 2010 3:31 PM
mg

Jason, Sorry for mispost. Leave Yawanna off and hang with Paddy.

13 May 2010 3:37 PM
El Kabong

1 SS singled up top, don't need to repeat why.

2 Aikenite, FIrst Dude,PPrince-One of these guys is going to move forward big, maybe two. Pedigree +

Aikenites female family is strong going long, suggests he may like stretching out. Like his finish in Derby T in 1 mile mud fest.

Strong stamina on female side with First Dude, and he has it on top side too. I think he is on the improve and will enjoy added distance and return to  dirt. Had trouble in Florida Derby and I'll forgive his Blue Grass on synthetic-gave him a good workout, but not  his preferred surface,  yet he hit board.

Pleasant Prince lost by a nose to Ice Box. Didn't care for plastic in BG and got a tune up in muddy Derby Trial. Back to fast dirt track at a distance he will love. One down side is he has been racing pretty steady since Jan 7th. 7th race, most in field for this group of 3 year olds, without much rest. I'll be watching his behavior closely for clues. Still like him alot if he runs back to that FD race.

I'll work Lucky and Prado in 3 and 4 with above.

13 May 2010 3:39 PM
Ted from LA

Lookin at Ducky?  Have you seen his last three races?  He's anything but lucky.  He's like a 16 year-old who just got his license and likes to drink booze and text while he's driving.  He keeps having bad trips because he doesn't know how to drive.  SS, Caracortado, Schoolyard, and Paddy in that order... and boxed...  and with a ribbon on it.

13 May 2010 3:52 PM
Speedball

Folks- whatever you do, play First Dude somewhere on your ticket.  As much as I would personally like to see Jackson Bend win as well as Paddy, I think the top four are going to be LAL,SS,Caracortado, and First Dude.  In what order?  I'd say it's up to the racing gods!!

13 May 2010 3:56 PM
Pedigree Shelly

         El Kabong  I'm glad to see you brought up female families ! I don't know if you saw it , but on Jason's last blog , I pointed out that First Dude has an interesting pedigree . First Dude's dam and his paternal grandsire AP Indy , both trace back to Uvira II ( influential Broodmare ) on their dam's side . First Dude has the pedigree to go classic distances .

13 May 2010 4:12 PM
Draynay

Trebloc, SS has won twice on a off track and twice at Churchill.  When he wins on a dry track at a track other then Churchill I will be a believer.  But you need to remember the last time he was on dry ground he BARELY beat Dublin and lost to a horse named Line of David ???

13 May 2010 4:19 PM
Pedigree Shelly

  Ted From LA ,  I.m curious does LA stand for Los Angeles or Los Alamitos ? :) Anyways I have a gut feeling LAL will get back on track and win ! Still I'd like to see SS win, We need a TC winner !!!!!!!

13 May 2010 4:21 PM
Dutch

1 - Lookin at Lucky

2 - Super Saver

3 - Caracortado

4 - Paddy O'Prado

Derby horses are usually tough in the Preakness, and I see the same thing happening this year.

13 May 2010 4:27 PM
Trebloc

Draynay,

Time to come up from your mother's basement and join the real world!  

Super Saver scared your Derby pick NP to the point that NP and the connections are leaving the country.

13 May 2010 4:43 PM
El Kabong

Ted From LA-thanks for the laugh. I kind of agree, so giving him the keys again with another youngster instead of Gomez, will not help.  Garrett says the horse gets intimidated. That is still going to be a problem in a field of 12, texting and drinking and who knows what else.

Pedigree Shelly-Uvira II, the dam of Missy Baba and Purdah, FD's fourth dam. He also has Relaunch and Quadrangle mixed in recently. He, Super Saver and Eskendereya have excellent blood for these classics. Could run big Saturday.

13 May 2010 4:43 PM
Jodie

1. Super Savor

2. Lookin at Lucky

3. Jackson Bend

A Triple Crown winner would do more for racing than any thing else.

13 May 2010 4:45 PM
Ted from LA

LA=  La La Land.

13 May 2010 5:22 PM
Susie

I'd really like Super Saver to win, especially with A Little Warm out of the field. The horse racing business is in huge trouble, with Pimlico bankrupt and a bunch of other tracks being sold. We need a triple crown winner and I sure hope SS's got it in him.

I don't know what to do with Lookin At Lucky. I hate the trainer. I hate the style he trains and I hate him. Plus, Lookin At Lucky is not "Lucky" at all. The Kentucky Derby trip was horrible, and if the horse gets intimidated as trebloc says, the Infield fest (stupid thing, that) will freak him out of his horseshoes.

My choices will probably be Super Saver, Jackson Bend,  and Paddy O'Prado. First Dude might also be a choice. I just hate his name (I'm a Democrat. I can't go with a horse named after Sarah Palin (EW)'s husband)

13 May 2010 5:22 PM
Colin LaVergne

When was the last time one of the Triple Crown races was run with only ONE of the starters having won either of their last two races?

13 May 2010 5:40 PM
The Rock

Cheese n rice...If I had to choose whether to keep Gomez on LAL or have Draynay pick this horse for the win..I'd pick the former with a 10lb. penalty.

13 May 2010 5:41 PM
Pedigree Shelly

         For anyone interested In Aikenite's female family, he's from the same line as Charismatic .Grass Shack by Discovery is Aikenite's 4th dam and Charismatics 3rd respectively .

13 May 2010 5:56 PM
swede

GOING TO BET SEEKING THE TITLE ON FRIDAYIN THE BLACK EYED SUSAN OVER LAL SS JB SYD IN THE DOUBLE GOOD LUCK TO ALL   SWEDE

13 May 2010 5:59 PM
Mary

Ted from LA just described my teenage son, but you forgot to include "eating a taco" along with texting and boozing while driving.  

Anyway, I have to play a small win ticket on Scarface because his jockey has my same birth date.  

I read an interesting handicapping theory on another web site;  this year we'll have 3 different winners of the Triple Crown races with 3 stupid names.  I like that theory so I'm playing Yawanna Twist and First Dude to win the Preakness.  I have to play both because I can't decide which name is more goofy.

13 May 2010 6:45 PM
Rechelle

I still believe that Super Saver is more talented than anyone seems to be giving him credit for.  I think Super Saver wins the Preakness easily.  My picks for the top 4 are:

1. Super Saver

2. Dublin

3. Lookin At Lucky

4. Paddy O'Prado

I also feel like it will be karma for Baffert to have Gomez beat Lucky on Dublin. I don't think that Lucky's bad races are Gomez's fault.  Lucky has only won 1 race this year, so to me, that tells me that he may very well have peaked at 2.  His only loss last year was the BC Juvenile, yet this year in 3 starts, he only has a single win.  I guess I'm one of the few who just is not on Lucky's bandwagon.

13 May 2010 6:52 PM
Meghan

Caracortado. The horses from California have been running brilliantly when they ship this year.

13 May 2010 7:01 PM
Slew

Still like Super Saver, First Dude, and Lookin At Lucky followed by Paddy O'Prado.  SD was okay in Tampa but...Didn't like Schoolyard Dreams in the wood...how far behind little Jackson Bend and a shoeless Awesome Act was he?

It's getting scary, Jason, when you start picking the horses I already chose.

13 May 2010 7:03 PM
Householder

Since 1980 team Lukas/Baffert have won the Preakness 9 times!  

2002-Baffert

2001-Baffert

1999-Lukas

1998-Baffert

1997-Baffert

1995-Lukas

1994-Lukas

1985-Lukas

1980-Lukas

13 May 2010 7:08 PM
Householder

Throw Zito in with Lukas and Baffert on your now hitting at a 30% clip over the last 30 years.  The Lukas, Baffert, Zito horses all started in the Kentucky Derby.

1.  Baffert

2.  Lukas

3.  Zito

Box

13 May 2010 7:18 PM
RED

best of luck to my son mike and caracortado, he should run great

13 May 2010 7:26 PM
jayjay

Draynay : You're a joke and you know it, you copied my picks in the Derby playing IceBox when you tossed him out.   I'm quite sure you'll have Aikenite on your ticket come Saturday because you have no idea how to handicap lol.  I know you watch my posts here because that's how you pick your horses.  Just admit it, I don't mind really, it's good to know that I'm teaching you something worth posting on this blog :)

This is from a clown picking Yawanna Twist to win and tossing Super Saver LOL.  Before you throw your dart, make sure you take out the names of the horses that has no chance of winning.  If Yawanna Twist beats Aikenite, I promise I will bet your pick in the Belmont even if it means throwing my money away.  If Aikenite beats Yawanna Twist, you'll refer to everyone as Master everytime you post on Jason's blogs...deal?

13 May 2010 7:44 PM
Pedigree Shelly

Ted from LA thanks for clearing that up :)

Susie ,I cant agree with you more about the origins of First Dude's name ! Good Luck to All Saturday !!!

13 May 2010 7:47 PM
ilwacocapper

only one who needs to go back to handicapping school is you dray when last did you pick a winner, i cant remember the last tim you posted one, your a big joke, not one thing you post every comes about.

13 May 2010 7:50 PM
Mike from Alpena, Michigan

I know the winner of the Preakness.  It is as sure as sure can be.  I will put my money where my mouth is.  I'm not gunna tell who it is, but will give a clue, if you are savy......  Clue- 25/20

13 May 2010 8:07 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        I'd like to make a correction on a previous statement.Aikenite and Charismatic descend in female line to Grass Shack by Polynesian not Discovery ! Sorry about that !

13 May 2010 8:09 PM
Paula Higgins

Super Saver

Looking At Lucky

Paddy O'Prado

13 May 2010 8:15 PM
Draynay

jayjay there is no point in taking off the training wheels.  YOU NEED THEM.  Aikenite is no where near the horse Yawanna Twist. Get real.  I don't even think Aikenite will make it to the Preakness isn't he still running in the Blue Grass ?

13 May 2010 8:20 PM
Edward

I think LaL is the favorite. He was 20th at the half and then ran 21 3/5 to the 6f mark to get into sixth and then flattened out. if he stays closer like he wants then he has the best turn of foot in this field.

  I'll play $1 super with LaL and PoP on top with SS, Dublin, PP(+them) in 2nd and 3rd with SYD+Yawanna added to fourth.

Oh, and I think First Dude will press the lead with Jackson Bend.

13 May 2010 8:25 PM
phileboy

Hey, there, Draynay . . . you keep referring to Super Saver's performance in the Arkansas Derby as if it was somehow a meaningful handicapping barometer of his talents because he was beaten by Line of David. I don't get it, quite frankly.

If you were to review the race and SEE it on replay, you'd notice that Super Saver twice engaged LOD, completely on his own accord, and likely could have passed him ANYTIME in the stretch had Borel merely urged him on more vigorously, while LOD was being hard-ridden to mainain his narrow margain; again, if you see the replay, you'll see that Borel NEVER ONCE SHOWED HIM THE WHIP, much less used it. In fact, the whip was effectively tucked away in Borel's back pocket, as Pletcher's aim clearly wasn't to win THAT race, as Super Saver didn't need a victory to obtain the necessary graded stake earnings, but to win the NEXT one. Clearly, it was meant to be a PREP RACE, a race that was designed to CONDITION Super Saver in what was only his second start of the year and to get hi to rate a bit -- and that's why I had him strong in the Derby and YOU didn't. (Oh, yeah, I forget: you peddled some preposterous after-the-fact silliness about how you ALWAYS also bet at least $100 on Borel every time he's in the Derby, although you can save that tripe for someone who might actually believe it! Past-posting of that type doesn't fool anyone, I'm afraid, as it doesn't come close to passing the smell test! So, to be clear, both you know and I know -- and I suspect everyone else who reads this blog also knows! -- that you didn't have a PLUGGED NICKLE to win on the Derby winner, unless you were making "mind bet," something you ought to be careful about that -- the last guy I know who did that wound up . . . . losing his mind.)

But even if, for argument's sake, you wish to assume that I'm wrong on what I saw in the Arkansas Derby, your premise -- that Super Saver is somehow not that good a horse because he was beaten by Line of David -- STILL falls on its face because no matter how he performed in the Arkansas Derby, HE WON THE DERBY! It's interesting that you think that the race was so meaningful and the John Sadler and Line of David's connections are more realistic than you and recognize, after the subsequent Derby trouncing, that it would be better for LOD to avoid Super Saver in Pimlico.

But to TRASH this horse -- after you supposedly cashing a win bet on the race, no less! -- that defies all rational thought, I'm afraid. (And that's why it's not believable that you made that bet that you claim to have made.) The suggestion that Super Saver is somehow a TIRED horse is not borne out by any FACTS -=- you may have perhaps heard of them . . . those small, pesky and often inconvenient pieces of data that are always making a mockery, when they're brought up to you, of what you IMAGINE to be true. All I can say is that if you're betting Lookin at Lucky, YOU certainly aren't getting a tired horse, are you? And that's because LAL, unfortunately, seems to get in too much trouble to ever EXERT himself enough to become tired! (And please: spare me how he's won all those G-1 and G-2s -- LAST YEAR on SYNTHETIC surfaces. The facts -- uh-oh, there's that unpleasant word again! -- are that even if Super Saver IS an underlaid price Saturday something I'm not yet conceding), he's IN FORM and the pace scenario favors him; Lookin at Lucky, by contrast, will be riding with a negative rider switch (the country's top jockey being replaced by a Triple Crown novice) and the horse has had  excuse lines in his past three races -- and as the looming second-choice, his price doesn't promise to be so much larger than Super Saver's. So, going into the race, which horse is logically more apt to be "a trap," eh? Just remember what sportswriter Damon Runyon used to say -- "The race may not go to the fastest or the strongest, but that's the way to bet" -- and that's why you'll realize that LAL is a horse that (much like Jackson Bend) appears to have been better at 2 than he is at 3.

Phileboy

13 May 2010 8:36 PM
nickie

can't see S Square as the "chocolate bar", Lookin looks to be a useful sort, my two plays that will help my ticket are First Dude....see enuff pace in here for this guy to make a run[Dominguez don't hurt], andd Zito's other player Jackson Bend deserves another shot, he sticks w/ "Smitty, and has impressed in the AM...good luck to all!

13 May 2010 8:37 PM
margincall

For all who loved Ice Box's run in the derby, Pleasant Prince has been neck and neck and nose to nose with him 3 times--i like an exacta of Super Saver with Pleasant Prince  

13 May 2010 8:38 PM
jayjay

This year's TC kind of reminds me of the 1998 TC except the Victory Gallop of this year (IceBox) didn't run in the Preakness...I'm hoping SS will run like Real Quiet in the Preakness and hold off IceBox and Make Music For me in the Belmont as I would really really like to see a TC winner this year.  I don't mind losing my bets on Aikenite for that .

It'll be down to those 3 in the Belmont if SS wins the 2nd leg.

13 May 2010 8:43 PM
jayjay

Figures, can't put your money where your mouth is lol.  You can just keep copying my picks, it's okay.  I don't really mind.

We all know what your picks have been and the only time you hit was when betting a jockey lol.  If not for copying my picks, you won't even have the exacta.

I will continue to school you the way I know how to handicap, maybe even get you to win some money and you can thank me everytime by pretending to not bet my picks.

13 May 2010 8:49 PM
JEFF M

DUBLIN RAN A VERY GOOD RACE IN DERBY DESPITE BAD WORKOUT,SLOPPY TRACK NOW ITS A FAST TRACK ,JOCKEY CHANGE ITS LIKE NIGHT AND DAY, LUKAS ,DUBLIN WINS.................

13 May 2010 8:58 PM
JEFF M

ALSO GOMEZ COMMENTED ON DUBLINS WORKOUT ,SO LUKAS WILL USE A RING BIT INSTEAD OF A D BIT,REMEMBER HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS THROAT .....

13 May 2010 9:03 PM
jayjay

Oh and Draynay...if you don't know this and you probably don't because you picked LAL using a dart board.  ALL his G1 wins were on plastic, how does this explain your hatred for west coast horses LOL.  

Again, just me proving how ignorant you are...polytrack here... polytrack there...now your betting ALL your money on LAL.  HAHAHAHA what a clown!  Weren't you the one that said west coast horses don't stand a chance because they run on synthetics ????  Oh boy, I wonder how he'll squirt his way out of this one.  I bet he'll change his pick tomorrow HAHAHAHA.

13 May 2010 9:18 PM
El Kabong

Phileboy,

What are you fixin to grub on  Saturday, because I know that IS your only concern at this hour. Must have the right accoutrement fired up for this hour of racing. I'm going with baby back ribs and dungeness crab. Local crab very tasty in celebratory events. Focus now because the food is now our main concern. Dray is going probably going to hastily whip out tater tots and cocktail weenies whilst his nag runs a muck. Time to think menu my good man. The work is done.

13 May 2010 9:54 PM
robinm

I agree with Dutch.  Generally, horses coming out of the Derby have an edge in the Preakness.  This won't be the case at Belmont Park where horses running in the Derby but skipping the Preakness seem to have an edge.  I guess 3 tough races in 5 weeks is just too much for today's thoroughbred.  That's why I think Afleet Alex is one of the best recent Triple Crown competitor's.  Close in the Derby and ran away with the Preakness and Belmont.  This takes a very tough horse.

I don't know if Super Saver has ever put together back-to-back wins?  If not, I don't really expect him to do it here though I think he'll be competitive.  I expect a better showing from Lookin at Lucky; he just doesn't look to me like the type of horse that peaks at 2. I also

think Jackson Bend will hit the board.  He may not be a 1-1/4 mile horse, but speed carries pretty well at Pimlico.  Of the "new shooters", I like Schoolyard Dreams.

13 May 2010 10:04 PM
John T

Lookin At Lucky never had a chance

in the Kentucky Derby after the first furlong.After horrible races

in his last 2 starts perhaps this

will be third time lucky for ''Lookin At Lucky''.

13 May 2010 10:23 PM
Robin from Maryland

Let's go Lucky!!!

13 May 2010 10:37 PM
Zookeeper

Phileboy,

The picture is not very clear in the replay of the Arkansas Derby, so I can't really tell whether the whip is in Calvin's pocket or not. Can you tell me why Borel's arms are flapping around? It looks to me like he delivered quite a few whacks unless he's is just keeping his arms in shape.

I'm not saying that to disparage Super Saver. He's my pick to win the Preakness. Go Super Saver!

13 May 2010 10:49 PM
Anglachel

I still like Jackson Bend. Before the Derby, he'd never been off the board, and don't forget, in his two races prior to the Derby, he ran into a proverbial buzzsaw named Eskenderya. He is as gutsy of a horse as I have seen in a long time.

13 May 2010 10:54 PM
Greg J.

Virgil Fox,

     Change of plans for Schoolyard Dreams, Not vanning over Saturday morning, Going to Pimlico Friday morning with Ponzi Scheme...

13 May 2010 11:00 PM
So Cal Racer

times up..Preakness in the house..as for Super S follower..bet lightly win bet iffy, put across the board instead.. Pletcher is happy for KY Derby win that is all... lookin at Lucky has to overcome some set back but will pay good if makes it.. Dublin unproven yet but will fire at big odds.. how about scarface.... who's the winner? could be the favorite if 2/1 not bad but is NOT Super Saver..win bet at your own risk.. the real TRIPLE CROWN will appear.. Dude

13 May 2010 11:20 PM
Monarchos Matt

Backtracking on Aikenite now- he's just been handily beaten by so many of these horses in previous efforts (Paddy O'Prado, First Dude, Jackson Bend, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin)...with a fast pace I think he has a better shot but with the way this race is setting up I think I'm gonna lean towards First Dude for my longshot play. I noticed he actually has the top Tomlinson distance figure in the entire field- a Stephen Got Even colt (just like the wise guy pick Schoolyard Dreams, who I also like) out of a Smart Strike mare, and figures to run close to a slow pace if he doesn't have to run wide.

I still think Lucky and Super Saver are in a class of their own in this one but there's not much value in that, but I'll box those two together and then and key them over the two Stephen Got Even colts, with a small exacta box on Schoolyard Dreams and First Dude just in case.

Playing against Paddy (bounce time?) and think Caracortado will struggle mightily with the distance (not to dwell on Tomlinson numbers, but his number of 241 is over 100 points less than the next worst in the field...that has to count for something). Jackson Bend should run well but I still think this is beyond his best distance. Can't like Dublin either, I just don't think he has any heart. May he prove me wrong for his Papa....

13 May 2010 11:27 PM
Tiznowbaby

Not going outside the box with LAL and Super Saver, but I'm really liking Pleasant Prince to get a piece.

13 May 2010 11:30 PM
RJPPDP

Look I think Super Saver can win the Preakness and maybe pull of the Triple crown but I am going to key all my bets around Schoolyard dreams. I feel even though he is the wiseguy horse he has a better shot than caracortado. He has Coa and scarface has Atkinson who has no mounts on Preakness weekend. I hope I am right. If you were to place my top 3 here they are

Super Saver

Schoolyard Dreams

Pleasant Prince

13 May 2010 11:34 PM
JW

I cannot understand why so many racing talking heads are making so many excuses,about who did not get to run their race in the KDerby.There are no excuses,going into a 20 horse field, we all know what can happen.For all these writers to be making excuses now that Super Saver got the best trip-and who got blocked is just hogwash.Its just crazy talk for folks to be making excuses.Just read Andy Bayer's article in DRF and see what I am talking about. Andy need to pickup his game.Super Saver beat them all fair and square.I dont believe in horses who need other horses to run their races for them.An alert horse player handicapping the KDerby field would have seen that Super Saver was coming into the race a much improved horse off his 2 starts in 2010.Go Super Saver in the Preakness,just dont go to the lead too soon.

13 May 2010 11:46 PM
Citation

If Caracortado wins, I'll be happy, the more Storm Cat line horses winning races the happier I'll be. If Super Saver wins I'll be happy, as I love Maria's Mon as well, and it would be nice to have a Triple Crown winner. If Jackson Bend wins, I'll be happy, as I just like him. So, three picks for me there.

14 May 2010 12:03 AM
Matthew W

Super Saver on top--love Caracortado and also love First Dude! Would have preferred a more inside post for the Dude, but will just settle for him being in the race, as I think he's a live shooter in here--Caracortado is just a bull--short but thick--and tough! Maybe Lookin At Lucky has peaked, as I here he's a bit thin, but Super Saver is also slightly built--I just think Saver looks a bit better right now--I also think he's the best horse....all in all a very nice Preakness! All in all a very nice horse race! No arguments to those who think Lucky is the man--he is--I just will try to beat him--good luck to all....

14 May 2010 12:17 AM
Anita Knapp

On paper this bunch are overwhelming in their mediocrity.  Not one has managed to scrape together 2 trips to the winners circle this year.  I can't remember ever seeing a Preakness field this weak on paper.

The top 3 faves all have red flags.  Super Saver has never won outside post 4 and never won off the rail on a fast track.

Forget Lookin @ Lucky's excuses for a moment and what does he look like?  Answer:  Noble's Promise twin.  The same Noble's Promise whose trainer has been tossing around the words "distance limitations".  

Paddy O'Prado is unproven on a fast dirt track.  When's the last time a horse lacking dirt credentials won the Preakness?

So I'm not using those 3 for the win but since Derby starters seem to have an advantage in this race I'll flip a coin between Dublin and Jackson Bend.

14 May 2010 12:24 AM
Runfast159

If we thought the Derby was wide open, welcome to the Preakness.

There is no reason why Super Saver won't win this race but with a jockey change and new post for Lucky I expect him to be a big factor. I also am intrigued by First Dude, and I'd love to see Caracortado run big.

SUPER SAVER - LOOKIN AT LUCKY - FIRST DUDE - CARACORTADO are my 4 in any order.

14 May 2010 12:42 AM
Matthew W

JW I agree with you about Super Saver--he won the Derby because he could, and most horses in the Derby could not, even with a perfect trip--you still have to have the horse--as it was, SS stalked a fast pace/then outlasted the closers (plodders!)...it will take a good horse to beat him in the Preakness,     maybe Lookin At Lucky, or even Caracortado, whom I know are classy--but the Preakness goes through Pletcher this year, Pletcher and his Derby Winner!

14 May 2010 12:43 AM
Bellwether

SIX...SEVEN...EIGHT...NINE...BOXED...

14 May 2010 2:16 AM
CW

so what if schoolyard dreams is the wise guy horse? that doesn't mean a thing. and are you telling me super saver wasn't the wise guy horse in the derby? because IMO he was about as much a wise guy pick in the derby that you will ever come across - bet down BIG TIME to basically being the favorite. if you like him bet him and forget this BS about his wise guy status. besides, from reading the 135 posts so far in this blog i don't see too many picking schoolyard dreams

14 May 2010 4:57 AM
JerseyBoy

Beyer wrote this in the DRF about Super Saver:

"He lost his first two races as a 3-year-old, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby, without any excuse before Calvin Borel rode him brilliantly to win at Churchill Downs"

Why does anyone take this man seriously? He apparently did not notice that Super Saver was conceding 6 pounds in the Tampa Derby and 4 pounds in the Arkansas Derby. He makes no reference to the weight concessions. How is this man a handicapper?

14 May 2010 7:34 AM
Carlos n

I was hoping to cash a good bet in the Preakness with Looking At Lucky,I'm surprise he's listed only 3 to 1. All I need now is pick for 2nd and third on my exacts and triple. I wish was a bet on who will be last and next to last,that will be easy .= Dublin,Northern Giant.

14 May 2010 7:44 AM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

Stay off LAL PLEASE!!!!!

I also hear that there's a good job waiting for you as track Mtc. Supv.at Delta Downs.  Please apply for it.

14 May 2010 9:49 AM
LAZMANNICK

1 - Lucking At Lucky (3-L)

2 - Dublin

3 - Paddy O'Prado

4 - Super Saver

14 May 2010 9:52 AM
Draynay

People expect a 3 time G1 winner and 2 time G2 winner to lose this race? Handicapping 101.

14 May 2010 10:00 AM
Gary

I liked Icebox for the derby to be the surprise and I like YAWANNA TWIST here to be the same. He has been up close against these and I think he is due to improve, is fresh, versatile, and can find a strategic position with these to have a chance. Although I think LAL would be my choice to win I would not leave YT off. Exacta box 5-7-8.

14 May 2010 10:39 AM
Will W

Baffert clearly thinks Lookin at Lucky has distance limitations as he's not headed to the Belmont with the horse. The horse's breeding line screams that out at you. The colt did flatten out the last eighth of a mile in the Derby as Garret Gomez said. Now in the Preakness Lookin at Lucky gets the post position  Baffert wanted and a new jock who has ridden him in morning works and has familiarity with the colt.. Baffert thinks he can get the mile and 3/16th, and I'd agree with Jason he's the best 3 year old out there or better, left, after Eskendereya's injury and retirement. However, Super Saver is an honest, consistent horse always there at the end and, if he gets it all his way either on the lead or stalking just off the pace in what appears to be a paceless race, ensuring soft fractions, it may be too much work for Lookin at Lucky to do to get to him. As he wished Gomez had in the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert will want his horse closer to the pace in mid-pack early in the race - right where Jason sees him - and will so instruct Garcia. If that doesn't happen and Lucky is farther back, he could be in a world of hurt. It is a 12 horse field which ups the odds that racing luck will come into play, and Pimlico has turns where horses on the lead can get away from you.

14 May 2010 10:50 AM
Draynay

The fresh horse ticket is ALIVE ! Jason, here it is, the track will be fast and dry tomorrow for the Preak. Fresh horses should have a real advantage.  I am going to box these 5 for the Tri and Super.  LAL, Pleasant Prince, Yawanna Twist, Caracortado, and Schoolyard Dreams. It's a long shot but I think fresher horses will have a real advantage over those coming back in just 2 weeks. Go Lucky Go.

14 May 2010 10:57 AM
Draynay

Exacta Box LAL SYD !!!

14 May 2010 11:12 AM
Draynay

Runfast159 let me remind you the last time SS ran on dry ground he lost to some horse named Line of David (he was simply too fast) and barely held off Dublin.  I wouldn't bet him to win with Jason's money. If you want to see what happend the last time he went to the lead watch the Tampa Derby.  SYD ran right over him.  SS is not your winner

14 May 2010 11:15 AM
TJLuvsTizs

Preakness is all about chalk!! 7 of last 9 winners have been the betting favorite, with Barbaro and Street Sense the only losers.

I have a bad feeling for LAL.  With Dray picking him, something is bound to go wrong. I like the change of jockey, the post position and his form, but the Draynay curse took down Rachel and 85ina50 in consecutive weeks, and then took out Ike before he had a chance to run!

Super Saver in a close Preakness.

14 May 2010 11:24 AM
Alexaso

Anita,

How dare you denigrate this field! LOL...You were lucky not to get yelled down like I did.

I agree so I am going with horses that know how to finish in the top two. Yawanna Twist never worst than second...Super Saver of course, and Schoolyard Dreams but using a little of Looking at Lucky too.

14 May 2010 11:28 AM
Rachel

I still don't get why LAL had a "bad trip" he couldn't overcome, when Ice Box managed to...guess it's all in who yah ♥. I hope LAL gets a race soon (just not this one ;-)) because he needs a confidence builder...he has had some awful races the last few...

SS

Jackson Bend

Caracortado

Paddy O

14 May 2010 11:29 AM
Ted from LA

Thank you Dray for leaving Super Saver out of your top 4.  I owe you one.

14 May 2010 11:34 AM
Householder

Jeff M.  So now Gomez is giving equipment change advice to Lukas?  Now there's a red flag.  

14 May 2010 12:37 PM
Trebloc

The only reason Jackson Bend is running in the Peakness is to allow Ice Box a better chance of winning the Belmont.

Super Saver all the way!

14 May 2010 12:45 PM
Zookeeper

Trebloc,

Care to explain about JB in Preakness & Ice Box in Belmont? Don't understand the logic. Help!

14 May 2010 1:36 PM
jayjay

Yawanna Twist is the rabbit in the race, that horse screams sprint.  I'm looking at YT to try and steal the race and will be gobbled up at the mile marker by Scarface and JB.  SS will take the lead at the 8th pole and pull away, I'm hoping he can hold off Aikenite's late run.  If not, I'll make a lot more money :)

14 May 2010 1:38 PM
Runfast159

Well Dray, I never said Super Saver would WIN the Preakness, I just think he lacks a reasonable excuse not to, particularly with what appears to be a lack of pace.  He consistently runs well and I think he's peaking right now.  That's why I bet him in the Derby.  We'll see if your mudder theory holds up.  

14 May 2010 1:38 PM
phileboy

El K! A very droll and most amusing post, indeed, my good man! We shall be supping in indolent splendor this Saturday night that doth approach, forsooth, a foolish knave little of the handicapping skills, shall remain famished and the object of our great merriment.! More seriously, I don't know if I'll be able to sink my teeth into those delicious crabs you describe, as I won't be around Pimlico ways, but I can't discount the possibility of a good New York porterhouse awaiting me -- and I do expect to be raising a vodka glass more than once as our steed gallops off to impressive glory and TC immortality. (Yes, certainly there is no use getting ahead of ourselves, but for us, THIS will be the harder hurdle, I suspect; NOT the Belmont, where tactical speed is immensely important at 10 furlongs, and nothing, aside from Ice Box, looms on the horizon as a possible impediment to you-know-who's coronation!) Best to you, squire! Phileboy

14 May 2010 2:08 PM
Householder

O.K. Dray thanks for tuning in.  We are here to help.  Other than RA, show me the "fresh horse" (definition not being in the Kentucy Derby) that has won the Preakness in the last 30 years!  Stick with Lucky...stick with the chalk.  

14 May 2010 2:10 PM
Trebloc

Zookeeper,

I think that entering JB in the Preakness is part of the Zito/LaPenta master plan to help Ice Box improve his chances of winning the Belmont.  JB's job on Saturday is to make sure SS has to work really hard to get the lead, just look at JB's last work.  Any earnins JB gets will just be a bonus for the connections.  

14 May 2010 2:17 PM
Joeywoge

Super Saver will be very tough to beat due to his racing style. Paddy O should be right there as well. I just have a funny feeling the Northern Giant is going to hit the board. That race in the Ark derby was too bad to be true. He's bred to get the distance and is a fresh horse. At 30-1 I'm using him with the obvious 3. SS, P.O. and LAL. Good luck everyone

14 May 2010 2:24 PM
jayjay

Monarchos Matt : You're backing out of Aikenite just because a few of the horses here have beaten him in previous races ??

I think Aikenite is actually sitting on a big race, that 1M Derby Trial in the mud race was a really good prep for him.  He was moving forward in that race and I can see the same pace if not quicker in the Preakness.  He'll be saving ground and will make his late run move in the stretch.

I guess we'll find out if the jock switch is good or bad for LAL...I'm not sold on it. I think Garcia will be too nervous, too much pressure to ride that horse right now after all the trouble excuses.

I'm sticking to my picks :

SS / Aikenite with Dublin, Pleasant Prince and LAL, I'll add JB in my exotics just in case he holds on again and LAL don't.

14 May 2010 2:34 PM
Zookeeper

Trebloc,

OK, I get it now! Thanks! I thinks JB will be fighting for second or third. For the Win? not so much. Gotta respect his tenacity though, I agree.

I just got this mental picture of JB fighting with First Dude in the stretch. Talk about David & Goliath!

14 May 2010 2:46 PM
Draynay

Householder don't get caught up in history the horses running don't know anything about it.  Judge each race individually and look at all angles.  Could it be a SS, LAL, Dublin type race ? Yes but I just don't think so.  I am going with the fresh horses and let the chips fall where they may.  Wasn't Bernadini a fresh horse ?  This race does not set up for SS at all pass on him and look for value....behind LAL ;-)

14 May 2010 2:59 PM
brettzky99

At this point, one needs to evaluate which horse(s) has moved forward most effectively up to this point.  Super Saver and Ice Box are the glaringly obvious choices; only one is entered.  LAL quite possibly could have gotten nothing out of his last two bizarre starts.  If you believe Wesley Ward that PP is just that "special" a horse that he and Ramsey could prep him like a claimer, and be successful, you are kidding yourself (one to many schedule changes)--these guys are doing anything to be involved in the TC, regardless of what suits that horse, pathetic. Schoolyard Dreams regressed in the Wood, as did Carocortado in his last two, not to mention no flattery from Sidney's Candy. Toss the synthetic start, and First Dude has been flattered by both Ice Box (Fl. Derby) and Fly Down (dwyer).  My opinion only:  Dublin is a hanger, and Paddy O' Prado is a toss, who overeached two weeks ago.  Try this:

Super Saver

Aikenite

First Dude

Jackson bend

14 May 2010 3:15 PM
Billy's Empire

aikenite has the same ragozin number as super saver in the derby, 4, so they are both the most improving colts in the race. I touted the Pletcher exacta early in the Derby campaign, anyone think he can pull it off in the Preakness? I all along have been high on Super and Lucky in the preakness, and now must add the "DUDE" and Aikenite to the tix. Hey, Pletcher did finally win the big one. racing luck might be on his side, plus Dogwood deserves it.... Still see Super in front by a few on the wire

14 May 2010 3:17 PM
Billy's Empire

don't even bring that garbage up about Bernadini, the best horse was hurt

14 May 2010 3:17 PM
Monarchos Matt

jayjay: The main reason that I am down on Aikenite is because with the defection of Hurricane Ike, I'm having a tough time seeing how the pace will set him up for much of a late run, which I think you agree is his best chance to win or hit the board in this. And yes, it is a bit disconcerting that he has gone head to head with half the field and has been pretty easily defeated. I also loved his Derby Trial race and agree that he stands to improve, but I can't use everyone here and I'm starting to like First Dude a bit better based on the likely pace setup and his pedigree. I still have a solid 26 hours to figure it out though and I'll surely be mad at myself if you are right about him- I was on him for the Juvenile and the Blue Grass but you know what happened there.

14 May 2010 3:52 PM
Ted from LA

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

14 May 2010 4:29 PM
HollywoodHit

The pace of this race is going to be hot hot hot. SS is going to stay close to this hot pace as will LAL, pressure on Garcia to keep him out of trouble means get him ahead of the pack. Yawanna, Scarface, JB  will be gunning.

Schoolyard Dreams gets a great trip form mid pack, and using that great turn of foot, passes the speed, for the win. LAL may hold on for second/third with Scarface.

14 May 2010 5:35 PM
jayjay

I've made my early bets singling Aikenite on top! I wanted to make sure I don't end up changing my mind tomorrow lol.

Aikenite with SS / LAL / PP with LAL / SS / PP and SD

Exacta, Tri and Superfecta!  

Good luck all!

14 May 2010 6:08 PM
jayjay

Fair enough Matt, I considered First Dude but I don't think he is ready for the big races.  He'll be coming out of the 11th hole, there are speed horses on his inside so he'll be forced to rate or end up in the back.  I don't know maybe he is that good but like you said, can't play all the horses otherwise it's buying the race.  

I'm hoping for Aikenite to make the prices juicy on the exotics but I really really don't mind if SS beats him for first.  TC winner is lonnnnnnnnnnnngg overdue!!

14 May 2010 6:16 PM
LAZMANNICK

phileboy

I find it hard to believe that the connections would pass up an opportunity win a G-1 race especilly when the next race will have 20 participants and is the toughest race to win in America.......I also find it hard to believe that a trainer would order a jockey not to win if he was right there at the finish, especailly since the Racing Commission would have plenty to say about it.  I could see if he was a long way back, but not when you are close in the stretch.  Just ask any jockey who has been under scrutiny because of putting up a less than 100% effort to win.  I know I might sound naive, but it's true.  LOL

14 May 2010 7:27 PM
Householder

Any "gimmics" expected from NBC/Bravo?  Betheny Frankel of NY Housewives down in the Paddock?  Hoda Kotbe and Katty Lee filling out a pick six card?  

14 May 2010 7:54 PM
sodapopkid

'GO FOR THE LONGSHOTS'

14 May 2010 7:59 PM
Householder

The "tight turn" award goes to Carocortado.  Went 1 1/8 on a 5/8ths track first time out!  I think he had to go around 6 times for the win!  Think stock car racing on a Saturday night. Mike M worked for Dick Mandella though.  Daddy stands for $1,500.  Has never been outside California.  

14 May 2010 8:10 PM
jayjay

Correction :  my bets does not have SD, I put Dublin on the 4th hole.  Not sure why I said SD...maybe it was a sign lol.  

1 with 8,7,3 with 8,7,3,12

I will make that bet with SD on the back tomorrow just in case...

14 May 2010 8:30 PM
jayjay

Here's the bets I'm doing tomorrow for whoever wants to win :

EXACTA :

$10 box 1 with 8 = $20.00

$5 box 1 with 3, 7 and 12 = $30.00

TRIFECTA :

1,8,3 with 1,8,3 with 1,8,3,7,12,6 = $36.00

SUPER :

1,8 with 1,8,3 with 1,8,3,12 with 1,8,3,7,6,12 = $144.00

That's a $230.00 investment, hopefully I get a good profit back but I'll be happy if I get half of it back lol.

14 May 2010 8:41 PM
2:24

Bernardini, Rachel Alexandra and Red Bullet all won the Preakness after not running in the Derby.  So did Codex.

14 May 2010 8:57 PM
Trebloc

Well my Bruins choked, so its all up to Super Saver!

14 May 2010 9:38 PM
Jason Shandler

Vin: Choke isnt the word for what the Bruins just did. Get Flyered up!!

14 May 2010 9:47 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        Billy's Empire , Please do not knock down Bernardini!! He cannot help he was born in the same crop as Barbaro !

14 May 2010 10:54 PM
Pedigree Shelly

         I truly feel LAL will win tommorow with Super Saver for 2nd and Paddy O' Prado for 3rd again ! I really would love to see Dublin win in honor of his sire Afleet Alex ! For some reason I feel Gary Stevens could ride him and he still would be grinding at the end to hit the board :(

PS , Would love to see SS win , I desperately want to see a TC winner :)

14 May 2010 11:05 PM
Draynay

Did you see the ride Tidal Pool got from Borel ?  And some of you are still going to bet on him.  Sad.  He is not at Churchill anymore.  Wide trip is coming !!!

15 May 2010 12:06 AM
brettzky99

"Wasn't Bernardini a fresh horse?"

Ummm....He won the Withers 3 weeks prior to the Preakness.  Whether you believe he would have won or not had Barbaro finished, he definately was not a fresh horse.  Which is exactly why he didn't run in the Belmont per his connections, especially when he was practically bred for that race.  RA though she had a joke of race in the Oaks ran 2 weeks prior, and only Red Bullet  who was prepped for the Preakness out of the Wood, would be considered "fresh", and I believe he had the earnings to qualify for Louisville.  The reason fresh horses don't have a strong recent record is that they weren't talented enough to get the earnings in the first place.  With that being said, I am using First Dude, based on flattery, and I obviously won't consider Aikenite fresh off a three week lay.

15 May 2010 12:37 AM
Matthew W

The bestest hoss of the 90's died, the tough customer who beat Cigar on the square (as a three year old), on his day just a great horse, was Skip Away....

15 May 2010 12:55 AM
JR.SR

SS

L@L

SYD

Pleasant P

over all

15 May 2010 1:03 AM
Ted from LA

This is slightly off topic, but the TV show Extra is on in the background and interfering with my Preakness handicapping.  My question for the blog is, does anyone else have an intense desire to smack the dimple right off Mario Lopez's face?  He is the prototype sycophant.  And not to bring bad Karma upon him for all his weasel sycophant stories, but it looks like Dolly Parton is going to be jealous of him in about two years.  What a mockery of a sham of a tool.

15 May 2010 1:25 AM
RJPPDP

I will stick to my plan tomorrow

1 tri

2/3,5,6,7,8/all

3,5,6,7,8/2/all

3,5,6,7,8/all/2

150 bones.

good luck tomorrow or today whenever you get this post.

15 May 2010 1:35 AM
jd

my picks are super saver, dublin and paddy o'prado. don't know if lookin at lucky can win this, he hasn't been having a very good season, last season was better. he doesn't look like the same horse to me. super saver's connections are saying that he is going into tomorrows race better than he went into the kentucky derby and that he likes the track there. i think he will win but it will probably be closer than it was in the kentucky derby.

15 May 2010 1:51 AM
Greg J.

Jason,

      Sorry Jason, PJ will have to be another day, lol, Leaving now for Pimlico, My final top four:

Jackson Bend

Super Saver

Lookin at Lucky

First Dude

Like to see Super Saver win it, But, My wallet wouldn't mind Jackson Bend...

In the Dixie, Nicanor has the lead going into first turn and he never looks back...

Race 12, Dixie Stakes, Nicanor(#13) & Rahystrada(#9) will go one, two...

Good Luck to ALL & Safe races for ALL...

15 May 2010 3:55 AM
Curlin

Dray,

    While I can appreciate your conviction, sometimes I guess I simply question your thinking.  Super Saver is a tired horse?  Just three races this year and he's already tired huh?  No Super Saver is just now starting to peak.  I know it's hard but you have to accept it.

    You play Noble's Promise in the Derby and then you question others handicapping ability?  Noble's Promise is a 1 1/8 horse and nothing more.  He'll have a nice career on the track racing anywhere from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8, but anything beyond that and the horse doesn't hit the board.

    Third, you're knocking horses like Dublin, Super Saver and Aikenite yet talking about Ywanna Twist?  So let me get this straight, you're knocking Super Saver for losing to Line of David and barely beating Dublin, yet seem to favor a horse who lost to American Lion (11th in the Derby).  Well I guess he did whip the horse who finished last in the Derby by 11 lengths in the IL Derby so you got that going for you.

    And how does this race not set up for Super Saver?  The Derby didn't set up for him either because many thought he couldn't rate.  You're just not making any sense with what you're saying. And how in the world is a horse like Super Saver not considered fresh with only 3 starts this year, but Pleasant Prince is with what 5 starts in the last 2 months or something to that effect?  Do you mean fresh as in hasn't raced much this year or fresh as in a new face that didn't race in the Derby?

    No, Super Saver wins this race tomorrow with Lookin At Lucky close behind in 2nd.  Leave Paddy O'Prado off your tickets.  The horse won't finish in the top 6 let alone top 3.  Run Schoolyard Dreams, Dublin and First Dude for 3rd.  Maybe that hits and mabye not, but one thing is for sure, play Ywanna Twist or Pleasant Prince on your tickets and you're definitely a loser before they break the gates.

    Dray, I'm starting to catch on to your love affair with the sire Yonaguska.  Last year Musket Man and this year Ywanna Twist.  Good thing Musket Man wasn't a gelding or you'd have nothing to hang on, lol.

15 May 2010 4:29 AM
marktoothaker

Jason

Here you go

1 Dublin

2 Lookin At Lucky

3 Super Saver

4 Aikenite

got some great Preakness stuff up on site

thederbydream.com

15 May 2010 6:30 AM
marktoothaker

Jason

Here you go from Baltimore

1 Dublin

2 Lookin At Lucky

3 Super Saver

4 Aikenite

Have some great Preakness stuff up at thederbydream.com

Goodluck to everyone today.

15 May 2010 6:32 AM
Trebloc

Thanks for outing me!  Let's go Super Saver!  

15 May 2010 6:41 AM
Vin

Jason,

Not that I have been outed, when you first wrote your first Triple Crown Blog back in the fall, did anyone pick Super Saver to win the Derby?  

15 May 2010 7:04 AM
EL Kabong

Billy,

Nice. you took the words out of my mouth regarding that classless reference to Bernardini being the fresh winner.  As far as Aikenite goes, yes. My earlier post has him, FD or PP waking up today. Don't think Pletcher would enter him if he didn't think he could pick up what SS will leave behind. 2nd ain't so bad. I will be banking if I get all three of those under SS. Unrealistic, but man what a ticket. I like it though. Using LAL and POP in 3rd.

15 May 2010 7:12 AM
El Kabong

Billy,

Did you see Kevin Willey's remarks? That's the stuff I love to hear. Beginning to think there's going to be more daylight between 1st and 2nd.

15 May 2010 7:33 AM
2-cents

Eh. I'll go with the one who has beaten Super Saver before. What I'm really waiting for is The Belmont.

15 May 2010 7:54 AM
ETHAN

I think that a lot of people are counting some very good horses out just not the same ones.

Super Saver obviously improved from Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby. Plus Borel said he learned something in the Arkansas Derby. He may not be Triple Crown winning material but who cares he's a very good horse and not to be discounted on the absurd pretext that he doesn't like Dry dirt. He's run well on dry dirt before. He ran a great race at Churchhill as a two-year old and ran well without switching leads  in the Arkansas and Tampa Bay Derbies.

Lookin at lucky has been accused of being just a synthetic horse. I don't think that that is a legitimate statement, to me his most impressive race to date was the Rebel stakes incidentally his only race on dry Dirt. If you don't agree that that was his best race fine but you have to deal with the fact that his last two wins were on the cusion Track at Hollywood (which is supposed to be the mos similar o dirt of all of the synthetic surfaces) and on the Dirt at Oaklawn (his only win as a 3 year-old)

You can't dismiss either of the favorites, they're very good horses.

15 May 2010 8:57 AM
ETHAN

When SYD beat Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby Super Saver didn't switch leads, thats important Draynay and SYD still barely beat him before running a much weaker race in the Wood than SS did (again without switching leads) in the Arkansas Derby.

So Draynay I for one really can't see liking SYD but completely discounting Super Saver

15 May 2010 9:11 AM
hotpickp

I believe Calvin best jockey then put him on the SS and very good combo. Although LAL may surprise and have a great trip I don't like jockey change. My picks SS, LAL, POP. EX BOX.

15 May 2010 11:12 AM
predict

Yawanna Twist?

Yes, thankyou.

Bred to run second in the Preakness? Maybe, but this year, will win!

15 May 2010 1:08 PM
GunBow

RIP Skip Away.

After Cigar, the best horse since 1991(post-Sunday Silence/Easy Goer).  Sonny and Carolyn Hine treated Skippy as a member of a family, but make no mistake, they ran him like an old time racehorse.  And Skippy flourished with the old-time regimen.  

Skippy was a warrior, a beast, a machine; he averaged 10 starts over 4 years, ran across the country, placed in 34 of 38 career starts, and won 10 grade 1 races.  At one point, Skip Away won 9 consecutive races, 7 in gr.1 races, and while carrying weight, including 130 and 131 lbs.  During this streak, Jerry Bailey made the comment that Skip Away might just be better than Cigar.  

Skippy's Beyer speed figures were awesome, and he is unrivaled for how long he sustained monster numbers.  He earned at least a 100 Beyer in 29 of his final 31 starts, including the last 17.  Of these last 17 starts, he earned at least a 109 in 16 of those races.  He earned a Beyer of at least 110 on 22 occassions, and at least a 113 an amazing 18 times.  He had a stretch of 15 races when his lowest fig was a 109, his next 2 lowest were 114, and everything else(12 races) was 115+.  His career top figs were 125, 122, 121, 120, 119, and 118(2).

In the discussion on Zenyatta, there were many, including myself, who vocalized  their desire to see her run in the East more.  To make clear, though, I do not believe Zenyatta has to run back East to be great, for she already is great.  And if running throughout the country, on both coasts and in the Midwest, is a requirement for being great, then many an Eastern based horse we generally consider to be great should not be labelled so.  If we are going to hold Zenyatta and horses out West up to the standard of running throughout the country, then we must also do so for horses based on the East Coast.

I grew up in California, and  was repeatedly disappointed and frustrated by how few champions and other "great" horses based in the East came out to run where I lived.  What made it worse was that there was really no pressure for these Eastern horses to run back West.  While the demands for Zenyatta to run East are deafening, there were few demands for "great" Eastern horses "needing" to run in California, and almost invariably those making the demands were from California like myself.  Call it bias if you want, but I think most can agree that since California racing began, on a large scale, in the mid-30s, there has been a double standard- to be considered "great" or even champions most California horses had to run back East while Eastern horses did not have run out in California.  

Thus, my desire to see Zenyatta run in the East is made from the vantage of someone who demanded the top Eastern horses run in California.  I want to see Zenyatta showcased to new people, tested on new tracks and against different competition.  I want to see her diversify her resume, and ultimately I want to see her silence her critics.  Sadly, in a continuation of this double standard, it appears that the only way Zenyatta can silence most of her critics is to run back East and on dirt, and at least a few times against males.

What does this have to do with Skip Away?  Well, Skip Away is one of the few Eastern champions that not only came out West, but dominated.  Since I started following racing in 1989, very few horses have shipped from the East to win top California races, this even though California has 3 of the top 6 open/handicap races in the country in the Santa Anita Handicap(a top 5 race since the 30s), the Hollywood Gold Cup(top 5 race since the 40s), and the Pacific Classic(a top 6 race since 91').  I find it no coincidence that the two best horses of the post-1990 era, Cigar and Skip Away, were among just a handful of horses who shipped in successfully to capture one of the 3 big Cali open/handicap races.  History has proven that despite the stereotype that Cali racing is inferior, very few Eastern horses have proven themselves good enough to beat the best of the West in these big races.

For that reason, it was when both Cigar in 95' and Skip Away in 98' won the Hollywood Gold Cup that I knew for certain that I was looking at all-time greats.  And being in attendance for both of those runnings of the Hollywood Gold Cup, I was so appreciative of the opportunity to see such truly great runners.  I was and still am thankful for the courage of Allen Paulson, Bill Mott, Sonny and Carolyn Hine for acceptiing the challenge of running out West, and in awe of these two horses who not only won, but dominated.

By the time Skippy came out for the 98' Hollywood Gold Cup, he was already a 2-time Eclipse champion and a BC Classic winner.  But in June of 98', Skippy was at his absolute peak.  He came in having won 6(would become 9) straight races, including 5 grade 1s.  In the Gold Cup, Skippy faced off against the defending champion, Gentlemen, as well as another Mandella South American import, the improving Puerto Madero.  Gentlemen, who had defeated Skippy in a classic renewal of the Pimlico Special in 97', was coming off a shocking last place finish at 1-20 odds in the Big Cap'.  Ultimately, Gentlemen would prove not as good in 98' as he had been the year before, but he was still formidbale.

The 98' Hollywood Gold Cup unfolded like a match race, with Skippy and Gentlemen lapped on one another.  The two went out, head to head, one-on-one, through a half in :46 and 2, 6 furlongs in 1:09 and 3, and a mile in 1:34 flat. These were the fractions of champions, and as they rounded the far turn neither had blinked.  

Slippy was where he loved to be, in an old-fashioned duel.  He was so fast, so physical, so intimidating, so tough, and in the end just too good.  At the top of the stretch the noble Gentlemen finally started to crack.  By this time in his career, Skippy was a thoroughly professional horse and knew how to close the deal. With his typical high-leg action, Skippy powered through the stretch under a confident ride by Jerry Bailey to win by 1.75 lengths.  Sadly, though Gentlemen was clearly 2nd best, the duel with Skippy had softened him up just enough that his stablemate, Puerto Madero, was able to nip him for 2nd.

It was a typical Skippy tour-de-force, and I will always be so grateful for having seen it in person.  That's why horses should travel-to meet new challenges and allow fans living in different places the opportunity to see their favorites run in person.  Just as with Cigar in 95', after the 98' Hollywood Gold Cup just about everyone throughout North America, including those in California, recognized the greatness of Skip Away and that he was the best horse in training.

15 May 2010 3:17 PM
GunBow

I have to stick with my Derby pick, Lookin at Lucky, in the Preakness although I obviously have a much higher opinion of Super Saver.

I am willing to give Lucky' this one last chance.  If he somehow finds trouble again today, that's it, I'm done picking him.  Eventually, one has to wonder how much the horse has to do with the trouble.  Perhaps Lucky is not quick enough, athletic enough, or calm enough mentally to either avoid trouble or get out quickly when the trouble starts to occur?  I don't care if one of the other horses get on its hind legs and throws a punch at Lucky, if Lucky gets into trouble again it's on him.

Super Saver is clearly the horse Lucky has to beat.  If I were Bob Baffert, I would instruct Martin Garcia to make Calvin and Super work into that first turn to clear them.  Assuming that Calvin will seek to clear in front of Lucky, I would then tell Garcia to either follow Calvin the rest of the way or stay right off Super Saver's flank.  That's the horse that you need to beat, so you might as well stay close.

In my opinion, Lookin at Lucky is not a deep closer and he will not win the Preakness if he's 5-7 lengths behind Super Saver early.  Lucky's best races have been when he was at the front of the mid-pack horses and then accelerated past the frontrunners at the top of the stretch.  

Like most, I had been impressed with Super Saver in the Kent. Jockey Club but was then less than overwhelmed by his efforts in the TB Derby and Arkansas Derby.  However, the Derby was a clear step up for Super Saver, a validation of the promise he had shown at 2.  He has solid foundation, tactical speed, and is proven at a classic distance.  And, of course, he has the best Triple Crown jockey going in Borel.  If Super Saver is to win a 2nd Triple Crown race, this spot is more likely than the Belmont.

3rd is an absolute toss-up for me.  I will take a stab with Aikenite.  Paddy o' Prado is the mystery horse for me.

15 May 2010 3:32 PM
KHYLE

Without any doubts, SUPER SAVER will win the Preakness and save the day!!!

Go SUPER SAVER, BOREL, PLETCHER and WINSTAR!!! Get your preak on!

15 May 2010 4:24 PM
Carlos in Cali

Bernardini would've gave Barbaro all he could handle & then some.

15 May 2010 4:34 PM
vikingblood22

Who won the Preakness last year? Oh, yeah, RACHEL ALEXANDRIA,with jockey Bo-Rail on board. The filly beat the Derby winner! HOY, big deal . . . Preakness winner, big deal!!

And they're off . . .

15 May 2010 5:40 PM
Paula Higgins

No Triple Crown winner this year. Looking At Lucky is clearly the class of the field. Good win. I put him in my three so feel good about that. Sorry about Super Saver. Not even close. He was just out of gas after the Derby. They noted Super Saver had lost a little weight. But I am happy for Bob Baffert. I doubt Looking At Lucky repeats in the Belmont if they run him. Still think it will be Ice Box. Zenyata is still the Super Star without equal in 2010.

I think Ice Box gets the Belmont.

15 May 2010 6:31 PM
sodapopkid

Congratulations to Lookin at Lucky!! all you needed was for someone to get you out of traffic the way Martin did.  Congrats to Bob Baffert , for a job well done.

15 May 2010 6:31 PM
Greg J.

Nice! I owe you Jason for First Dude! SWEET!

15 May 2010 6:38 PM
Zookeeper

Jason,

You are THE MAN! Thanks to you, I won the exacta and the $1 trifecta. I would never have put First Dude in the 2nd spot, but you were so confident, that I listened for once and now, I won BIG for the 1st time. Well! At least it's big to me. Thank you!

15 May 2010 6:57 PM
CV

Go Lucky! He showed his class today.

And how about my Florida-bred Jackson Bend? If he hadn't run into traffic problems I have no doubt he would have made second.

I came within a hair of hitting the wps. Still won enough to cover my bets, though.

15 May 2010 7:00 PM
sodapopkid

If I were Baffert,  I would skip the Belmont.   He just won the Preakkness, and the Belmont is sooner, and we already know we won't have a triple crown winner this year, So , If  I were LAL connections , I would skip Belmont and go for another race later in June or in July.

15 May 2010 7:13 PM
CV

I forgot to mention...CANNOT believe NBC chose to interview Olympic skier Lindsey Vonn while the Dixie Stakes was being run. Ugh.

15 May 2010 7:25 PM
LAZMANNICK

Congrats Luching At Lucky.  I always figured he was the best and have touted him since before the BC Juvenile.....It also shows how suspect the current crop of three year-olds is when a maiden winner, First Dude, runs a tough race and runs away from the Derby winner and the third place finisher Paddy O'Prado, and in his fourth start since his maiden win.....I think that Lucky and Ice Box will dominate the three year-old division for the balance of the year with some of the others stepping up occasionally, but not consistently.....Can someone please tell me what Calvin was thinking out there.  Why cook the horse when he really didn't have to?  It makes no sense to me.

15 May 2010 7:29 PM
Aluminaut

Zookeeper,

Your tri on the live blog came in!

Great for you!  I had LL and FD, but not JB, and I didn't play the right exacta. Jason probably had a saver exacta w/LL and FD.  Jackson Bend might have taken 2nd or even won if he didn't have to go around horses.  I know he's tough, but it still was a surprise to me.

Couldn't get the odds at the time I bet at SA, so didn't play much straight $.  

15 May 2010 8:16 PM
Slew

How about that FIRST DUDE???!!!  Lucky finally got lucky, and Jackson Bend was even scrappier than I thought.

Seems NBC finally got the message...It's all about the Horse. Great coverage this time.

15 May 2010 8:37 PM
Freetex

Jason, your the man!!!

I decided to put a win bet on First Dude at the last minute, and I don't regret it one bit.

Your Superfecta was super perfect.  Congratulations!!

15 May 2010 8:39 PM
jayjay

I guess that was a good jock switch, it's safe to say Garcia will keep that mount...that was an excellent ride.

Thanks to Monarchos Matt, I hit the Exacta and Tri lol, I watched First Dude during the parade and that horse is huge..ears pricked and he looked like he should've been the favorite.  I was not even close in the Superfecta as I didn't have Yawanna Twist in any of my tickets but I have to admit, it was pretty impressive he got 4th in that field.

15 May 2010 8:40 PM
GunBow

I was real happy to see Lookin at Lucky get the win today.  He has so much class and heart, and proved that given the right trip he can fight with the best of them down the stretch.  Lucky has demonstrated repeatedly that if he is in contention at the top of the stretch, he will keep on fighting and find a way to to be there at the wire.

The Preakness might not have been a coronation, but it certainly validated Lucky's Eclipse award and lofty career achievements accomplished mostly on synthetic.  Lucky has now won 7 of 10 starts, with 4 gr.1 wins and 2 gr.2s(very similar line to Blind Luck).  And if not for a wide trip when 2nd a neck in the BC Juvenile, being forced to check in the SA Derby, and a disasterous trip at Churchill, who knows, we could be "lookin" at a horse that is 10 for 10 and going for a Triple Crown.

This is not to imply that Lucky is a once in a generation horse.  Lucky gave everything he had in the Preakness yet won by just 3/4ths of a lengths with 2 other horses less than 2 lengths behind him.  The Preakness was very similar to Lucky's other big wins; he doesn't crush fields, but with the exception of the BC Juvenile he has won every stretch battle he has been a part of.  

Lucky is a solid but not spectacular horse, and I expect his Beyer to reflect this.  Pimlico was not particularly fast today, so that 1st quarter in :22 and change and the half in :46 and change was extrememly quick.  Like in the Derby, just about every horse tired in the stretch of the Preakness, as the fractions slowed later in the race with a final 3/16ths in :19 and 2.  Still, the final time of 1:55 and 2  compares favorably to the 8.5 furlong time the good older horse Blame ran earlier on the card.

As someone living in California, it was also good to see a horse trained and prepared for the Triple Crown almost exclusively on Cali synth courses win a Triple Crown race.  In the 3 years since the California preps were first run on synthetic, the previous best finish by a Cali horse in the Triple Crown was Pioneer of the Nile's distant 2nd in last years Derby.  The fact that the winner of the Hollywood Futurity won the Preakness and the winner of the Hollywood Starlet took down the Kentucky Oaks says alot.

As for the also-rans in the Preakness, First Dude, Jackson Bend, Yawanna Twist and Dublin all performed well.  

First Dude actaully ran a remarkable race, setting the blistering fractions that fried Super Saver yet holding on well in the stretch, battling Lucky to the wire.  First Dude is a big, tall, good looking horse with alot of upside. It wshould be fun seeing him develop.

Jackson Bend ran his typical plucky race.  In 11 starts now, JB has finished out of the money only once, in the Derby. He was back to his old self today, and might have been closer had Mike Smith found a hole at the top of the stretch.  He should be tough in 8-9 furlong races like the Haskell.

Dublin blew any chance at the start, as Garrett Gomez once again attracted trouble.  Dublin was the only horse that was able to close from deep, and although he did flatten out some late, he had been hard used just to get back in the race.  On the positive side, the poor break may compel Lukas to settle on a one-run style for the horse.

It takes a very good horse these days, given current training and breeding, to run peak races back to back in the Derby and Preakness. And, of course, it takes a true superstar to  sweep all 3 legs of the Triple Crown. In the end, Super Saver just didn't have the physical or mental constitution needed for a horse to run successive top performances.  Super Saver is a good horse and should be a top contender the rest of the saeson, but he is not a great horse let alone a once in a generation horse.      

15 May 2010 9:00 PM
GunBow

Well Jason, I suppose you hit the exacta.  And had Jackson Bend not been there, you might have really hit big.

Zookeeper:

Good call on Jackson Bend and First Dude battling through the stretch.  Hope you had Lucky in there as well.

15 May 2010 9:03 PM
GunBow

I had been waiting for Acclamation to turn in a breakout race, and he finally did, winning the 12 furlong Jim Murray on turf by over 7.  Of course, I wasn't at Hollywood and didn't bet the race.

It will be interesting to see if Acclamation can turn in a similar performance in the gr.1 Whittingham in 3 weeks.  Of course, I would expect him to receive much more pace pressure in that race.  

I am still in shock that Acclamation was able to open an early 10 lengths lead while setting a :49 and change and 1:14 and change pace.  I understand Presious Passion opening up 10 on a :46 and change pace, but what in the world were the other jockeys doing while Acclamation was all alone on such a moderate pace?  Inexplicable.

15 May 2010 9:08 PM
thomas

what a race. super saver im still behind you. lookin at lucky ran lights out i think he's probably the point given of this year. i felt that if dublin broke good he would have won but he had too much ground to make up.

15 May 2010 9:34 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        Congrats to LAL and Company ! I knew this was his race,and he came through beautifully ! First Dude ran a great race to complete my exacta :) I truly was rooting for SS ! He looked really good before the race ! Oh well another year without hope for a TC , unfortunately I'm getting used to it :(

15 May 2010 9:38 PM
GunBow

Lookin at Lucky became just the 4th champion 2 year old since Spectacular Bid to come back and win a Triple Crown race.  The other three were Easy Goer, the 88' 2 year old champ who won the Belmont, Timber Country, the 94' champion juvenile who won the Preakness, and Street Sense, the 06' juvenile champ who won the Derby.

15 May 2010 9:52 PM
Jason Shandler

Hey guys: Glad I helped a few of you score some $ today. About time huh? lol. Anyway, I made money on winner, exacta and had First Dude across the board (i loved him), but did not catch the tri or super!! Jackson Bend killed me. You wanna know the sickening part. My son's name is what? Jaxson. What an idiot I am!!

Anyway, happy for those that made a lot of $ today. It was a great race. I'll try to get a new blog up tomorrow. Peace.

15 May 2010 10:55 PM
Zookeeper

I owe it all to Jason. That was my biggest win EVER. Did not have the guts to play his Super though. "Scared Money", that's me!

JASON, if you did what you urged us to do,you must be hanging from the ceiling by now. Congratulations and thank you again and again!

15 May 2010 11:09 PM
Jason Shandler

No problem ZK. Happy you hit your biggest ticket! Great job. BTW, if youre ever in Lexington, feel free to take me out to dinner with your winnings :)

15 May 2010 11:11 PM
Monarchos Matt

jayjay: Glad you threw First Dude in there at the last minute and it made for a huge tri for you- I am happy to have hit the exacta (paid pretty well I think considering LAL was a pretty sure bet to win in my opinion), but I didn't have the tri because, well I'm really shocked with the race Jackson Bend ran as he wasn't even in my top 6...he's certainly earned my respect and am I wrong to think it looked like he wanted another half furlong in this one? Weird.

Really, First Dude ran an unbelievable race. Did anyone think he would go to the lead like that, let alone knock off the first quarter in :46 and change and then keep going? He completely toasted Super Saver as that one was waaaay too close to that pace...remember in the Derby he was a good 6-7 lengths off a similar pace at that point. The truly amazing thing is that First Dude stayed the course and was actually in position to win but Lucky was just moving too well at that point- I think First Dude would have been a huge factor in the Derby. It was a great race.

How about Dublin's start? Wow that horse is a total head case...anyway, congrats to everyone who made money today (sounds like a lot of us!) and thanks Jason for all of the insight. On to the Belmont we go (Ice Box, Setsuko, Make Music For Me tri box?)

15 May 2010 11:49 PM
jayjay

Congrats ZK! that was a nice hit !!  Don't spend it all in one race! :)

16 May 2010 12:04 AM
jayjay

Yeah, thanks to you, you made me check him out in the parade and he looked awesome, didn't realize how big that horse is.  Yeah, I was surprised at JB's run...well more like very happy he got third as I didn't have YT in any of my tri tickets.

I think CB was a little too over confident with SS...it's funny how he spoke of what he learned in the AD race about the horse and then went after the lead with that kind of pace.

IceBox and MMFM were my horses in the Derby so I'm definitely playing them again in the Belmont.  I just need to figure out if there's going to be a "D'Tara" in the lineup so I'll wait for that...

16 May 2010 12:14 AM
CV

Dublin must have been hanging out with Eightyfiveinafifty last week. He was heading for the hot dog stand, or else he took a look at the other horses and said, "Get me out of here!"

16 May 2010 12:19 AM
Geronimo2123

GunBow,

Nice recap. But go back and watch the race a few more times.

Had Smith found a hole at the top of the stretch, JB would not have been "closer", he would have won by about 1 length. As it was he made up 2-1/4 lengths on both LAL and FD in the stretch and still almost got the place.

I did not have JB winning, but did have him finishing second. However, I agree with both Zito and Smith-JB was the best horse in that race today, and I give LAL all the credit in the world.

JB ran the fastest final 3/16 of any of the front 4. Looked to me like it was a little more than his typical, plucky race. And I agree that FD ran big and Ramon gave the horse a great ride. But he had no trouble like JB, and JB sat just off his fractions. JB might have actually wired the field if given a chance (I cannot believe I am saying that).

Had Smith merely kept him out of trouble, JB would have won. This is the second Zito horse that did not win but was obviously the best horse in the race (to me, anyhow). Waiting behind horses cost JB at least 1 length, maybe 2.

As it is, Lucky has the luck today. JB looked every bit as comfortable at 9.5 furlongs as any other horse in that race. He may show a lot of speed in his pedigree, but Tabasco Cat is his damsire.

Watch the blimp view. Jackson Bend would have won that race.

I am just glad he didn't.

16 May 2010 4:10 AM
Vin

Congrats to those that picked LAL.  Disappointed in SS's performance but he did win me the Derby and for that I will always be greatful.  I guess we do not make horses the way we use to. Very impressed with JB's performance.  Hat's off to Mr. Zito.

16 May 2010 7:30 AM
Slew

Didn't anyone else notice that First Dude, besides looking great and intimidating, has those big knobby knees of great grand sire Seattle Slew?  Great recap, Gunbow. I didn't think JB really wanted to go more than a mile...he sure showed me....he's such a little scrapper.  Lucky remains...all class.

16 May 2010 7:49 AM
2-cents

Well, anyone can pick a 2/1 favorite to win. But props to Jason for selecting a couple of longshots for the bottom of the exotics. It was too bad you didn't like Jackson Bend for this race considering his record. The Derby is a throwout for most of the field considering the number of starters, weather and track conditions.

Onward to Belmont Park....

16 May 2010 7:59 AM
the_wiz

Nailed it again!! A $2 Tri and the exacta 5 times made another great day!! Too bad Jackson Bend caught Ywanna or it would have been even better. Guess I can't complain since Jackson Bend looked like he was going to get up for second.  

16 May 2010 8:12 AM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Dray,

   While I can appreciate your conviction, sometimes I guess I simply question your thinking.  Super Saver is a tired horse?  Just three races this year and he's already tired huh?  No Super Saver is just now starting to peak.  I know it's hard but you have to accept it.

   You play Noble's Promise in the Derby and then you question others handicapping ability?  Noble's Promise is a 1 1/8 horse and nothing more.  He'll have a nice career on the track racing anywhere from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8, but anything beyond that and the horse doesn't hit the board.

   Third, you're knocking horses like Dublin, Super Saver and Aikenite yet talking about Ywanna Twist?  So let me get this straight, you're knocking Super Saver for losing to Line of David and barely beating Dublin, yet seem to favor a horse who lost to American Lion (11th in the Derby).  Well I guess he did whip the horse who finished last in the Derby by 11 lengths in the IL Derby so you got that going for you.  Hey Curlin do these words look familiar to you ?  I told everyone who would listen that Super Saver would not hit the board and over and over again I was told that is not the history of the Preakness.  Handicapping legends like me look at more angles then the average capper but if you could not see SS was a tired horse you are still a rookie. Pletcher even tipped you off by TRAINING the horse the WEEK after a GRUELING win.  Did that tell you nothing ?  I said over and over again LAL was your winner but many of you still fought to the end with a tired horse.  A STAR IS BORN.  Not listening to Jason and throwing in First Dude cost me about 17,000.  Did ANYONE think he would take the lead ?  What a giant beautiful horse.  He is my choice for the Belmont and my choice for every race except when he faces Rachel or QR.  First Dude is a stud and ran one of the most amazing Preakness races I have ever seen.  The best news is I cashed 14 win tickets on LAL and Jason imagine my surprise when I cashed my little 10 dollar double with Taqarub and LAL!!! Just short of 600 for that little ticket.  Unreal.  By the way, I asked it before and I will ask it again.  If Super Saver can't win the Preakness when does he win his next race this year ?  To all my fans and those who called and got my free picks including rusty you don't have to thank me anymore I just did what I do best.  Pick the winners !  Your handicapping legend....Draynay!

16 May 2010 8:32 AM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

This is from a clown picking Yawanna Twist to win and tossing Super Saver LOL.  Before you throw your dart, make sure you take out the names of the horses that has no chance of winning.  If Yawanna Twist beats Aikenite, I promise I will bet your pick in the Belmont even if it means throwing my money away.  If Aikenite beats Yawanna Twist, you'll refer to everyone as Master everytime you post on Jason's blogs...deal?

jayjay 13 May 2010 7:44 PM

Yeah jayjay, what an idiot I was for putting Yawanna Twist on my Super ticket and tossing Super Saver huh ?  jayjay I trust your a man of your word so if First Dude runs in the Belmont he is MY PICK.

Oh, and jayjay don't ever doubt my abilities again.  "The handicapping LEGEND"...Draynay

16 May 2010 8:43 AM
Citation

Well, this victory gives me hope that Sidney's Candy was really a top-class horse all along. I look forward to seeing him again. Poor Jackson Bend, he tried so hard, didn't he? I guess his broodmare sire Tabasco Cat made up for all of the sprinters in his sire line.

16 May 2010 9:23 AM
Citation

Draynay, don't forget, you have said multiple times that Jackson Bend was a slow Calder horse or something to that effect. Not all of your predictions came true. Jayjay, sorry about having to bet Dray's horse in the Belmont. He can hit winners every now and then, but he is no "handicapping legend".

16 May 2010 9:31 AM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

IMHO Lookin At Lucky deserves every bit of a 105 Beyer.  Blame is a heck of a horse and he went no where near as fast as LAL and First Dude and he is always in the 100's.  The Handicapping Legend... Draynay

16 May 2010 10:09 AM
Zookeeper

Jason,

It's a DEAL! What's your favorite restaurant in Lexington?

16 May 2010 11:46 AM
sodapopkid

Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Re:  'OH, PLEASE' Spare us........

16 May 2010 1:21 PM
jayjay

Draynay : You were afraid to accept my deal because you weren't sold on yawanna twist at all.  LOL, you claim to be a legend for picking a 4th place finisher, beaten by a couple of horses you didn't think had any chance.  Yeah...you're a clown.

I will still bet 20.00 on whoever you pick just because I'm so annoyed that Aikenite ran so bad.  If it's "First Dud", then so be it, I'll bet 20.00 on him just for you, and will probably bet another 80.00 just for myself lol.

Citation : He didn't accept my deal, I would still do it though, I'll throw in 20.00 on "First Dud."

This is the first time he picked the winner before the race, only thing is the winner is pretty much everyone elses pick way before he picked it lol.

I'm sure he hit his $2.00 win bet on Lucky, cause he knew LAL was the horse to beat, he's a polytrack horse from the west coast, he loves them.  I made good profit in the Preakness so I can throw away 20.00 on him :)

16 May 2010 1:29 PM
LAZMANNICK

Geronimo2123

Nice race by JB but if you look at the deep stretch run, JB, once he got close he didn't close any more and LAL held about the same distance between them for the last five or six jumps.  LOL

16 May 2010 2:06 PM
Gary Lynn

Slew...you're calling Lindsay Vonn a horse? If so, would love to own her breeding rights.

16 May 2010 3:10 PM
GunBow

Geronimo:

Frankly, I'm tired of speculating on who would have won with a cleaner trip.  For gosh shakes, people were making Paddy o' Prado's Derby trip seem like it was the Israelites in the Sinai.  

I don't know if Jackson Bend would have won with a perfect trip.  Maybe, maybe not.  It's just speculation.  The fact is, he ran 3rd and had a clear run down through the deep stretch.  My opinion, and it's just an opinion, is that Lucky would have held Jackson off.  Jackson didn't have a terrible trip; he had to wait for a while, but never checked, or lost his momentum, and had most of the stretch to run.  He ran very well though.

What's pretty clear to me is that this crop is evenly matched and that trips will play a huge part.  Super Saver peaked on Derby day and got a perfect trip.  Lucky had a terrible trip in the Derby and ran 6th, then had a near ideal trip in the Preakness and won.

Although I feel these horses are close in ability, what makes me rank Lucky #1 is that he has proven repeatedly in big races that in a stretch battle he will find a way to pull out the W.

16 May 2010 3:49 PM
Tim G

LOL Draynay I'm sure you have quite a few AKA's on your rap sheet. Doubt Handicapping Legend is one of them

16 May 2010 4:05 PM
sodapopkid

I have never played the horses,  Is it easy to do?  IF so , where do you start, and how?  I think I want to try it one day,  I could learn which horses to pick by reading you guys posts on here.

16 May 2010 4:18 PM
Citation

Jayjay: I guess he didn't accept your deal, did he. Why did you like Aikenite again?

Lookin at Lucky would never get a mile and a half anyway, so his declaration from the Belmont doesn't really bother me. He ran an excellent race in the Preakness though.

16 May 2010 4:37 PM
Slew

Gary Lynn????  I talked about First Dude...doesn't sound anything like a skier to me.....and she doesn't look like a stud either...unless they both have knobby knees...???  Well...she has had a lot of knee surgery.

16 May 2010 4:57 PM
jayjay

GunBow : Just out of curiosity, do you write articles somewhere?  I look forward to your analysis after each race.  I normally don't watch the replays after a race unless I'm blogging about a horse here (which is a fairly new thing to me) so I like reading your posts.

You're probably one of the very few that I know (only from these blogs) that can go to the track and not bet, that to me is amazing. I do have favorites that I follow by reading articles about them, horses like Point Given ,Afleet Alex, Lost In The Fog, Court Vision ( I also like Bill Mott as a trainer and almost always bet on his horses ) and of course, Zenyatta.

16 May 2010 5:10 PM
jayjay

My angle for aikenite was his run in the Derby Trial, he was really moving forward in that race at a mile.  I thought he would be the one sitting on a big race come Preakness but I saw him in the parade and his ears were pointed back, didn't really show any signs of a big race but I still stuck with him (as I already had my tickets by then.)   He's also Pletcher's other horse.  I don't know why he ran so bad, I'm still annoyed because he didn't go to the lead and stayed back which is the type of race that suits him.  I watched the race again just to see if he encountered trouble but didn't really see any excuses. He just ran flat.  I'm not giving up on him though.

His pick in the Belmont is typical Draynay, he touts the horse that ran well in the previous race AFTER the race.  If FD bounces in the Belmont, he'll trip on himself backpedalling about his comment

"He is my choice for the Belmont and my choice for every race except when he faces Rachel or QR"

and will go back to calling him "First Dud" lol.

I do like FD's chances in the Belmont simply because I haven't seen any in the probables that would have the same speed that FD showed in the Preakness.  He's a big horse and I'm sure he can handle the deeper surface in Belmont.  Of course, it's a long way away, I'm sure there's going to be new shooters that will pop up.

16 May 2010 5:30 PM
GunBow

Geronimo:

I actually forgot to finish my thought on the trips/bad trips, and in particular Jackson Bend.

This crop is well matched and trips will be key.  But in the end the trips will probably equal out.  Lucky has had some definite bad trips, but he's also had some decent trips as shown by the fact he has 4 gr.1 wins.  

Jackson Bend is not going to have subpar trips everytime out, so if he's good enough he'll eventually win a big race one of these days. However, the fact, thus far, is that Jackson Bend has yet to break through against top open company.  

16 May 2010 6:07 PM
Carlos in Cali

Why is whatshisname claiming to be a handicapping legend?...because he picked a 2-1 obvious choice? LOL,so did a million other people.

16 May 2010 6:50 PM
moodygirl

Draynay calling himself a Handicapping Legend is like not knowing the difference between infamous and famous. Infamous Handicapping Legend is more like it!:)

16 May 2010 8:06 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Carlos many started to call me The Handicapping King but I asked them to change the title to something a little less Royal.  I am all about the fans and feel the title King would put added pressure on my fans and make them even more nervous when they meet me.  Even though there is a certain "Royalness" about me I didn't want to put a barrier between me in my fans so you can just call me "The Handicapping Legend"  Picking the winner was easy but to declare the FAVORITE would not hit the BOARD, well many thought I was crazy but do you really expect a horse to perform well after running in deep mud 2 weeks later vs. so many fresh speed horses?  Jayjay, I have had a LONG relationship with First Dude just ask Jason but I am putting the past behind because a talent is a talent and being really talented myself means I can spot talent and First Dude is a MONSTER TALENT.  Horse simply don't do what he did in the Preak.  The others coming to Belmont are running for second.

16 May 2010 8:17 PM
Tim G

Jumpin on the favorite. That's handicapping skill????

My bet is your business acumen and handicapping skills are about equally worthless.

Even the guys who can't pick a horse to save their lives were on Lucky. (you for one)

16 May 2010 9:22 PM
jayjay

If you watch the Live Blog replay from last Friday, you'll know exactly who Dray's pick was, it was Schoolyard Dreams, and SD finished behind the "TIRED" Super Saver.

What a handicapper...lol.  It was actually a fun read.  I'll try and make it next time.  I'm pretty sure he had $2 to win on LAL but most of his money was most likely on SD lol.  I highly doubt he even had YT in his tickets.

16 May 2010 9:28 PM
jayjay

Draynay : I'm quite sure you didn't know this but technology allows for certain LIVE BLOGs to be replayed and I encourage EVERYONE to watch the May 14th replay, you'll see Draynay's LONG relationship with FD all over that blog.  You certainly told Jason in the blog your long relationship with First Dude, yeah, it really shows what a clowndicapper you are LOL.

On a serious note Draynay, is your name Mike Watchmaker ?  For some reason, you remind me of him :)

16 May 2010 9:41 PM
jayjay

Also, whoever attended that blog on Friday...since Draynay is a man of his words, you have free drinks coming.  He stated so in the blog that if FD hits the board, drinks are on him :)

16 May 2010 9:49 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Now jayjay don't make things up.  If you read the live blog from Friday look at my comments at 12:08.  I made it very clear to all that LAL was going to win.  I can help you jayjay but you have to be willing to listen to expert advice. Tim, as you know SS was the favorite but my big hit for the day was Taqarub. Don't worry Tim I promise I will give you the winner for the Belmont.  Let me give you a hint it rhymes with rude.

16 May 2010 10:22 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Little green with envy jayjay?  Don't worry I will put you at the top of the list for President of my fan club next year.  First Dude has me on the wagon.  I bet on him to win the allowance he loses.  I bet on him to win the FD and he loses. I drop him from my ticket in the Preakness and my Super ticket is toast.  Jason even told me to reconsider but I was tired of him costing me money. lol.  You can't have it all the win tickets tasted good but the Super would have tasted even better. By the way what a great ride on Rainbow View.

16 May 2010 10:37 PM
Tim G

Thanks but no thanks. If my horse goes, I have to go with him.

But all I have to do otherwise is bet my exotics like I did Saturday.

50¢ difference?  Right, a real strong favorite SS was, lol. I'm sure that $100 you bet on the second favorite really has you rollin in the dough. King of Beulah Park....

However, if anyone knows what rhymes with RUDE it'd be you.

jay, that's his strategy. He changes his picks so much that he thinks people don't notice. EVERYONE was betting SS because they wanted a TC winner, everyone was backing that bet up with LAL.

Hmmm, a horse that won most of his graded races on synthetics?

16 May 2010 10:41 PM
Tim G

I didn't want to do this but as jayjay said:

"Morning Line Live Blog - Friday, May 14th

14 May 2010 11:55 AM

12:07

[Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] First Dude ??? Based on what nearly winning an allowance race ??? PASSSSSS

Friday May 14, 2010 12:07 Draynay

12:12 [Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] SYD will be 9 to 2 at post....insiders know

12:21 [Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] First Dude who hasn't broken 89 going 1 1/8th ? Pass

12:23[Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] There are MANY things not to like about First Dude including the 11 post and he has only won a maiden race... he is not a G1 horse wake up"

Jason was all over First Dude. Folded on his bet and blew his the start on his son's college fund but at least he put it out there.

Some of us were on FD, JB etc as well at least in our exotics. You however are doing just what you always do. Jumping on the bandwagon.

Being at the race I can tell you that I would wager at least 80% of the 'fans' that attended bet at least 2 bucks on LAL. You had the same horse that thousands of others did. Big DEAL. Don't think that takes any talent of any kind.

16 May 2010 11:05 PM
jayjay

Envy? Hehe, yeah, that's it.  When someone proves you wrong, it's called envy.

You had LAL with SD, you even said "SD will be tough tomorrow" ... SD who finished behind SS, SS who you said was so tired from the Derby, the one that pressed the pace with FD with those fractions and STILL finished ahead of your pick.  Oh yeah, you had LAL as your pick, that makes you and everyone that bet him are now handicapping LEGENDs LOL.  Wait, I hit the Tri, that means I had picked LAL as the winner too!!  WOOHOO, I'm a handicapping legend!

At least now we know who your FIRST pick is for the Belmont, the "First Dud".  You now have 19 days to make the other "winner" picks :)

17 May 2010 12:34 AM
jayjay

LOL Tim G, in addition, he now claims he had a long relationship with FD.  His comments sure says a lot about that relationship.  

I'm a little surprised that no one is claiming to be in the blog last Friday to claim their free drink from Draynay, I guess no one really wants to hang out with him?  I don't think it's fair to put it all on Jason's shoulder just because he is the author of the blogs, I say we let him pass on that free drink as well, unless he wants it :)

12:49

[Comment From Draynay]

If First Dude hits the board drinks are on me !!! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

17 May 2010 2:37 AM
SamNotSpam

12:06[Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] Lookin At Lucky wins for fun with SYD right behind Caracortado and Pleasant Prince fight for 3rd.

12:53 [Comment From DraynayDraynay: ] Like I said box these 5 horses LAL, SYD, CARACORTADO, Pleasant Prince and Yawanna Twist !!! Going for the fresh horses

Oh wow Draynay, did you manage to pick one horse?  That is SOOOOO much more impressive than Jason managing to post a winning Super, how are you not a racing God?  Wait, I'm flying across the Atlantic to come worship at your feet, oh guru of all racing knowledge.  Can I have your babies?  *swoon*

17 May 2010 7:58 AM
Tim G

jayjay, no one wants to hang with him. Not sure when one of his aliases will result in the long arm of the law sweeping up all around him in their net. His handicapping is downright criminal!

Besides, I'm not hankering to go to Beulah Park if he's the 'King' there.

I'll stay safe at my track where he'll never show up.

17 May 2010 11:52 AM
dthe_wiz

draynay you are a sick man. Anybody can tout a 2/1 choice like LAL. It's much harder to handicap those that finish underneath and you have no talent whatsoever beyond and occasional favorite or second choice winner. First Dude was a solid choice to run well and easily the overlay of the race. They teach one to look for that in nursery school handicapping before you even get to Handicapping 1.

Keep pounding yourself on the back for siding with millions of others and LAL. If it makes you feel like a genius more power to you. The rest of us prefer to live in the real world.  

19 May 2010 8:25 AM
draynot

jayjay and nay nay,

When will you learn that when Mr. BS nay nay makes a promise it means nothing? I've never seen anyone go back on his word more than that fool. Free drinks if First Dude hits the board is pretty tame for him.

This quote from Mr BS is really a joke!!

"talent is a talent and being really talented myself means I can spot talent and First Dude is a MONSTER TALENT."

Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND. 16 May 2010 8:17 PM  

Mr BS you couldn't spot talent if Zenyatta jumped up and bit you in the arse. Spotting talent means picking it out BEFORE the rest of the world sees it!! Jason clearly saw it in First Dude and so did many others here who actually put their money where their mouths were. To claim that you spotted First as a big talent AFTER he runs the race of his life shows how out of touch with reality you really are. Find a shrink before you destroy what's left of your feeble mind.

19 May 2010 8:35 AM
gw_bushwacker

Amen to all of you who see mr bs draynay for who he is. It's good to see that there are a growing number who are very tired with his schtick.

Congrats to all of you including Jason who once again (though no surprise) clearly showed the nay nay he should stop yappin like a wiener dog once in awhile and listen to you. Me thinks he's spending too much time in the dog house with Flopsy, Mopsy, and Topsy or whatever there names are. Just like the dogs he loves to hear his own voice. Shut up and listen once in a blue moon and you might learn something mr bs!!

19 May 2010 11:55 AM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

I picked the winner and cashed many win tickets on Saturday but that is where the fun began and ended.  After betting First Dude to win twice I took a stand against him and it cost me in my Super but NONE of you hit the Super and MOST of you didn't bet on the winner.  So none of you did any better then I did and that is what makes me a handicapping LEGEND and all of you rank rookies. But I will continue to try to help you and bring your handicapping abilities up where I was a decade ago.  It is too much to ask that any of you reach for the stars that I have been able to reach.  I had win money on the Derby winner and I had win money on the Preakness winner.  If you want win money on the Belmont winner you will listen to my expert advice and place your win money on First Dude to win the Belmont.  Ice Box is a suckers bet just like SS was in the Preakness. Listen to your handicapping legend.

19 May 2010 12:30 PM
jayjay

I hit the exacta and the trifecta because I listen to other folks with legitimate reasons.  I didn't like FD until I watched the parade and saw how huge and primed that horse was.

My $2 exacta alone made more than the many many win tickets you have on LAL.  LOL, yeah, you can handicap alright.  You can keep 'em winning tickets, you'll need it to be able to bet the Belmont after you lost ALL your money on Schoolyard Dreams, the one you were touting to be the "fresh" horse, who finished behind SuperSaver.

You're a joke :)

19 May 2010 5:09 PM
jayjay

LOL, you tend to forget the things you said about FD and now you're going to claim you bet win money on him??  You're a pathetic liar :

Like I asked before, what's the color of the sky in your world ??

He ran lights out in the Preakness, he's a big colt and unless he bounces, he'll hit the board but there's a big possibility of a bounce in the Belmont.  The fractions he set and his stretch run was pretty taxing.  I wouldn't bet the farm on him...but I'll see what he looks like during the parade.

19 May 2010 5:21 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Jayjay you didn't hit a thing and believe me when I tell you your 2 dollar exacta ticket was not worth anywhere near any of my win tickets. Keep trying !

19 May 2010 5:38 PM
jayjay

LOL, I wouldn't trade my exacta and tri wins to your WIN money.  Stop making things up, I doubt very much you even hit a $10 win on LAL.  I don't know anyone here that would believe you even bet on FD.

I bet you were the one that asked for a 100.00 because you lost your money on Schoolyard Dreams.  Keep on dreamin'

19 May 2010 8:56 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

jayjay you're not the sharpest tool in the shed are you?  I bet on First Dude a couple of times this year to win and LOST.  That is the MAIN reason I was DEAD set against him in the Preakness.  It cost me a lot of money not having him in my Super but the win tickets on LAL didn't hurt a bit.  But I will be all in on him in the Belmont.  Fly Down will make a run at him but he will hold him off to win by 2.  Listen to a legend and you might finally win a race.

19 May 2010 9:46 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Jason I love it !  Noble is going over soon to show Europe what a real horse looks like.  Go Noble !

19 May 2010 9:51 PM
jayjay

Draynay, you're a tool.  There's nothing that you say here that ever pans out to winning anything.  You can't pick a winner until after the race.  Don't even try to pretend.

You're so desperate for my attention, I'd be surprised if you haven't asked Jason for my email address lol.

19 May 2010 10:36 PM
Sam Not Spam

OK Draynay, you're on, we'll show Noble's Promise what REAL horses can do.  In fact Her Majesty said if NP wins at Royal Ascot she'll run naked up the track.  Admit it though, it's gotta hurt, one of your touted horses running in these 'fake' Euro races!

20 May 2010 4:16 AM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

Sam Not Spam, by the way my Grandfather helped develop Spam. I believe he is in the Spam Hall of Fame.  Anyway, once he gets running the wrong way down pat I am sure he will show you what American Turf talent looks like !  Good luck catching him !

20 May 2010 11:35 AM
jayjay

It's a fake euro race ?  LOL

Sam, sounds like you're from somewhere in europe...can you give me an insight on who will be coming to the Breeder's cup this fall from your side ?

20 May 2010 1:18 PM
it ain't easy being as wrong as draynay is

It figures a relative of the nay nugget would come up with something like Spam. That's the most disgusting thing to come out of a can in the history of processed meat. Years ago the rumors were rampant that Spam included among its mystery ingriedients horse meat. Hormel is an abrivieated word for Horsemeat, at least that's what they say in Albert Lea.  

20 May 2010 2:42 PM
Sam Not Spam

Jayjay, it's a little early in our season to be touting horses, and to be blunt we haven't got another Sea The Stars.  I've been following the US racing more as at this time of year the horses are so lightly raced here that it's, well, boring!  (insert rant about the good old days when racehorses actually RACED!)

Anyway, I've got a feeling this will be the year of the French, we just had an ex-French racer called Rewilding show up and win a Derby trial, plus you've got Special Duty who manages to win two classics in the stewards room.  I'd be looking to the Prix du Jockey-Club to give you a good 3yo.  Plus forget all the hype you may have heard about St Nicholas Abbey - I've got a feeling he's a soft ground plodder.

As to the BC, well unless Rip Van Winkle has found another 6 gears (he hasn't) it's gonna be all Zenyatta again.  Again, look to the French, if Goldikova has held her form she'll be a monster again, but as regards other challengers they tend to start their best horses off later in the season, so watch this space!

21 May 2010 2:53 AM
Absence of leave

Informative and valuable information. If you have a time, check out my site too. Thanks!

21 May 2010 3:52 AM
jayjay

Thanks!  I'll be looking for your posts to see who to watch out for later in the year.  I didn't know what the Euro horses of last year's breeder's cup did prior to the race except looking at the form which I really hate using because it doesn't really show you what the horse does in the race.

Hope to see you here more often!

21 May 2010 4:00 PM

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