Thank God there is a new blog!  I really don't have a big opinion at this time being so early, but I'm just happy the subject has changed.  Thanks

Wow - a new topic!  Thanks!

I really like Uncle Mo, and that Dialed In has potential.  Am pleased (but a bit surprised) to see Aces N Kings running again so soon after his stifle problem (was that the final diagnosis?)

But what do people know about the dark horses, the 2 year olds who may just be figuring out how many legs they have and don't yet know how to race?  Any beauties just starting to run we can look out for?

Ditto Footlick. I couldn't agree with you more.

That said, I'll be keeping my eye on Uncle Mo. If his 3 year old season is anything like the past  year. He has a bright future ahead of him.

Now that I said it is too early to have an opinion, I do have a bloodline opinion.  Of those horses listed, breeding wise I like Dialed In and Dynamize.  Although Uncle Mo looks to come upa little short breeding wise, he may be so talented that his talent will carry him.  But his breeding looks too short for me right now.  To Honor and Serve has a much better chance to get 10 furlongs and beyond right now as far as breeding buthe may not be as talented.  I like Jaycito and hope his blowing of the turn at Churchill is not an omen for the Derby.

I'm sort of intrigued by Stay Thirsty...shadow of Uncle Mo, same energetic owner, some decent potential...

That said, I placed a big futures bet on Mucho Macho Man for a friend when we were in Vegas for a conference- he's not a regular fan, but liked the idea of a chance to win big with a crazy bet, and said that he was pinning all his hopes on this horse because it shared the name of his Fantasy League Football team. If that ticket ends up a winning one in May, I guess I'll have to stop reading The Bloodhorse and just start picking 'em because of cute names :)

Well, you should not be bored to tears and maybe it is time to move on, however, the topic or horse that you are tired of hearing about has done for for your industry than any writer, horse, trainer, or owner has contributed in a very long time.  You should maybe be a bit more respectful and certainly you should be pleased with the contribution of that "bored to tears" creature has certainly done for your magazine.

Fran: The words "bored" and "tears" appear nowhere in my blog. Move on.

Uncle Mo - Not in love with the name (though I like it better when I learned why he was named that). Impressive here at Saratoga, would love to see a "top" 2 year old be a "top" year old. But what about "Feather"?

what about storm'n indian? the son of storm cat and out of the champion fleet indian. he'd had one race and he's owned by darley as well.

Ok, I just got three more comments on the subject referenced in the second paragraph as the one I specifically said we were going to move on from. I will not post anymore comments related to that subject on this blog. Not happening. Move on.

Wow sounds like Baffert will be loaded with 3 year olds next year, which should be good for California racing fans. Bernardini seems to be one of the best young stallions, I expect him to have a couple of horses on the Triple Crown trail.

Thanks for the info on Aces N Kings.  Just checked ... he's pp #6 ... a field of 12 listed for the Springboard.  Jockey is E. A. Tejera.

Cheers to Aces N Kings and Tejera for Dec. 11th at Remington Park.  Hope it's warmer out there than it usually is this time of year.  BRRR.

I take one race at a time.  There are 22 more Saturdays until May 7th.  

I am looking for a "dark horse" in an unkown or un-talked about Afleet Alex baby. He started out strong as a stallion and had a couple this year that were decent colts. I look for him to have a son or daughter headed for the Derby or the Oaks and I agree with Mike in SB, Baffert may just be loaded (with his newly acquired Jaycito and the undefeated Alcindor) and Bernardini DOES have some interesting prospects this year for sure! I was also reading that Turbulent Descent is a filly to watch out for.

SO EXCITING! We just get through the Triple Crown races and have an exciting summer leading up to the Breeder's Cup and then as soon as we get through that the Triple Crown trail heats up anew! Makes the years sure whiz by,,,then again I am not always sure that is a good thing! Haha!

Mike in SB- Bernadini is doing really well at stud.  He seems to have a bright future.

I'm carefully watching all of the Bernardini colts and fillies, Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova.  

And what if the Uk sends some...like Frankel, Top Care, or Theysken's Theory.  

At the moment, it's simply too wide open to predict anything.

Crossbow is not a Derby horse - he's pure sprinter, both in on-track performance and pedigree.

I still think Buffum is very good.

I still love Stay Thirsty, but I wish he were trained by someone other than Pletcher.

To Honor and Serve is my big horse.........

I am thinking this is the year for Tiznow to get his Derby winner.  He tends to have late developers but I like how Rush Now has looked (even though he didn't fare well at Delta).  Tiz Blessed has also looked with his win at Woodbine.

I am a Tiznow homer, but I think this next year will be another standout like he had in 2009! (who knows maybe it will be his nephew listed above instead!)

I like Queensplatekitten as a sort of underdog; and hey, might as well root for a Canadian!

Jason, is the horse Canadian-owned/bred, or is he just based at Woodbine? I've heard nothing about him.

Jason,

I sent a post asking your opinion about a couple promising Derby prospects. I didn't see my post above and wondered if you had elected to skip over it or hadn't gotten to it yet? I am truly curious to know your thoughts about those horses but since you haven't said anything I wondered if it was something I said?

I asked about Boys At Tsconova and also wondered if you thought any of the juvenile turf runners would be interesting factors, such as Pluck. Can't remember all of what I said but hope you geta chance to answer my original post.

Thanks!

And Bernadini's Honor & Serve looks hot, hot, hot! He is going to have to be to topple Uncle Mo who is the IN horse right now for sure!

(and there still IS a total Lunar Eclipse on Dec. 20th which should be somethign to see in the night sky)

I have Queen'splatekitten added to my watchlist after his first race and his win was pretty impressive, although he does have the turn of foot of a turf horse.  

I hold out hope that a Medaglia d'Oro colt might finally distinguish himself.  I know his daughters have been more precocious, and that he himself got better with age, but I'd like to see a son of MDO actually make his presence known in the Triple Crown.

Jason,

Thank you!  We will not have Triple Crown winner as long as all these trainer's continue to only have two prep races prior to the Derby. So, the two horse I am following is Brethren and Dialed In.  I absolutely love Brethren's pedigree.  One of the deepest in the Stud Book and his connections are on a row.  Dialed In's win on the Churchill track was fun to watch.  Neither have graded earnings, so they will run early in the season and may even have three prep races going into the Derby.  

Not a fan of Stay Thirsty and I questions Uncle Mo's pedigree to get the mile and a quarter.    

What the hell happened to Grip Hands last Sunday?  $500K plus the markup gets you a last place finish.  WOW!

Simply put, Uncle Mo is the Vitali Klitschko of thoroughbred racing.

JASON

I asked last week but probably you forgot. Do you think A. Feather has promise of becoming a Superhorse?

If "Crossbow" works his way up the competition ladder you can see the headlines now -

"Crossbow fires on target"

"Crossbow strings out another"

"Taking aim at Crossbow"

"No quarrels for Crossbow" (if he comes up empty in the stretch)

And let's hope Aces N Kings is no joker........(sorry - it's late, I've been at work 12 hours.......must stop now!)

I like a newcomer that won the Display Stakes @ Woodbine a couple of weeks ago..  His name is ''Tiz Blessed''.  He ran them off their feet in that race.  He is a ''Tiznow'' so distance should be right  up his alley......

To Honor and Serve reminds me of Seattle Slew & Vindication in looks,his stride and the way he naturally bounds to the lead,not letting anyone else head him.He has that same kind of "classy look" about him & has also shown that breakaway turn-of-foot coming into the stretch.Mott mentioned that he'd like to get him to rate behind horses,I say just let him use his natural speed to run his opponents off their feet.It worked for both the aforementioned and 10f will not be a problem for him either.

Whereas,I do believe Uncle Mo's pedigree has limitations regarding his sire Indian Charlie and his penchant for exclusively throwing  sprinter/milers.He just might be the exception and turn-out to be a freak,but I'll go w/the notion that we've probably seen his best & will not improve substantially as a 3yo.

I expect Crossbow to romp in his next start and w/his speed we might see him @ Santa Anita in Eoin Harty's hands this winter/spring.

Dialed In's race was impressive.He missed the break,was very wide around the far-turn and his jockey was having a hard time with him trying to lug-in during the whole length of the stretch.

Any word on the Euro-Darley colt Biondetti who ran a respectable 4th in the BCJ first time on dirt?..

Smash had a very good maiden performance in July, but he hasn't run since then. Does anyone know what the deal is with him?

I think we are going to hear more from Queenplate'skitten on this year's triple crown trail. If he takes to dirt, he could be something special. Reminds me a little of Paddy O'Prado, which makes him a possible Derby horse. Don't think he was beating much in the Maiden race, but the finish was impressive. Definitely one to watch, especially since we know he can two turn. I know alot of the bloggers here love those kitten names:)

I believe Alcindor is already a 3 year old, is that correct? He looked extremely impressive in his last start, I thought he was being pointed towards the Malibu.

Industry Leader looks like a very good future prospect. His sire is Cherokee Run and I just don't know how far he will want to go.

Lunar Eclipse: I really like Boys At Tosconova. I didnt mention him in this article because I was looking more at horses that are not stakes winners yet. Right now, hee is right behind Mo and To Honor and Serve in my book.

Im not sure what they will do with turf horses like Pluck and Soldat at this point.

Red: Smash must have had a setback. He hasnt had a work in a long while.

Mike: Awesome Feather probably wont take on boys but she is a terrific talent for sure.

sol dat ran on the dirt earlier in his career

Jason, glad to be back on the Triple Crown Talk.  Any Afleet Alex's that have good TC prospects?

Thank you, thank you, thank you Jason for changing topics.  

I am really looking forward to this Derby because finally, after about a billion years of watching on TV (I started with Chateaugay in '63 -- anybody remember Candy Spots that year?) I AM ACTUALLY GOING TO LOUISVILLE.

Don't know if I'll bet on Uncle Mo, much as I like him as a 2YO because maybe he's not a mile and a quarter horse -- but what do I know.  Looking forward to watching the emerging 3YO's (a la Curlin).

p.s.  Did I say thank you, Jason?

BTW Mallory, with a name like "Queensplatekitten", he has to be Cdn!  Bred in Ontario.  Remember, the Queen's Plate comes after the Derby so you can run in both (see: Northern Dancer)

Jason

Thanks! I like her alot.

Cheese n Rice its about time. Its like peeps have been repeating themselves for the past 2 months now.

Besides Uncle Mo, I really haven't come across a colt that's really wowed me with an impressive performance. To Honor and Serve has been above average, but I'd like to see him face some different competition. Or maybe none exists... who knows. The one that's really impressed me is the filly Turbulent Descent. Ever since her maiden win, she has done things very effortlessly. If she handles the Starlet competition like I think she will, I hope the connections ponder derby with this one. Especially should she roll through Santa Anita Oaks series, which would be over by early March.

Jason, your thoughts? How's your football season gone? Mine's been below average.

@afleet treet and 2:24, there's an Afleet Alex baby named Sway Away who has attracted some attention. He was most recently a closing second in the 6.5f Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. His next start is supposed to be the one-mile Holy Bull (G3), January 30. I assume they will try him at longer distances if he does well in the Holy Bull. His dam is a Seattle Slew daughter.

Afleet Treat;

You might want to take a look at Elite Alex. He has won his only start so far, and seems to have some talent.

-Keelerman

Yes Mallory: Queen is a Canadian-bred.

Rock: I dont think Turbulent Descent will go the male route but I could be wrong. She has her hands full in the Starlet with May Day Rose and Nina Fever. Both of them are super fast.

The Vegas bet on Mucho Macho Man may turn out to be a wise play. We have not seen his best yet!

There was indeed a lot to like about the way Queen,splatekitten won his maiden at Woodbine.Owned by

Ken Ramsey of Kitten,s Joy fame who is also the sire of this horse

you can bet with a name like that the main target for this horse as a

3 year old will be the Queen,s Plate.

Carlos- I'd like more info on Biondetti too.  Liked him in the BCJ.  If they would just let him winter here........

Trebloc- there was an interesting post on the Thoro-graph site highlighting an article that had a quote from a vet saying the same thing.  A two-year old foundation of 6,7,8 races is very important.  He feels that they are doing all these two year olds a disservice by only running them twice and then putting them away and then only giving them two preps.  A geneticist said that there hasn't been enough time for there to have been a huge genetic difference from the 50's to now, as that would take hundreds of years.  So he concluded diet and environment and training methods have made our thoroughbred less durable.  It isn't genetics, according to him.  Interesting stuff.

Uncle Mo looks like the real deal.  To Honor and Serve also looks very very nice.  I would love to see Frankel come over but I am sure they are pointing for the 2000 Guineas.  Looking forward to another great year of racing.  

God bless you Jason.

Uncle Mo - loving this guy but I'm afraid to attach emotionally to him, something tells me that he may be maturing too quickly and won't even make it to the KD. I really hope I'm wrong.

Thanks for posting some videos in your references; I really liked Dialed  In, he was such a sweetie in this race :-) One must wonder what was going through his pretty head: "what should I do, which way to run??", "O my, this way you mean??", "Whooo, look at all these funny people sitting at looking at us! They could join us here, it would be so fun to watch them run! They have only two leggs! Why did you hit me?? You want me to do what?? Not look at these funny two legged creatures, just run? You are so boring but there you go, if you insist. Wow, I never thought that I can run that fast! I'm liking it, I want more!" :-)

Thanks for the update on Aces! Happy Holidays to everyone!

Uncle Mo is the nuts--that was a tiring Churchill track--they added sand and it didn't rain and it was cuppy in spots--some horses didn't like it--Uncle Mo looked like a champ! I love that he runs head low, ala John Henry, A P Indy, Snow Chief--I always like to see a horse that knows how to run/how to hold head low for better air-intake (my theory), he won't be an easy beat, this looks like the biggest Derby Fave since Slew! Count Jaycito as one who didn't grab hold of that track--I think he's a real nice one--do not toss him out! Cali is in disrepair! God help Cali Racing! The Indians are sucking the marrow out of the gambling bone, and it's Sayonara for top level racing--not to say we won't have a nice horse or three, but not like before....One to watch out here: Caracortado on the Santa Anita dirt--a real nice powerpack of a chestnut--I think if you place him right, and that means leave the Big Cap alone...I see a Met Mile contender....tom at Holly, R3 watch for #6 Teroda (3-1) to sit the trip/pounce/win going away....R5 like #6 Imponente Purse (4-1)...R6 #4 Czaris is a live first timer and at a good price...R7 #5 Frequent fame (9-2) is a real nice price--not saying she'll win for sure or anything, but that's a real live horse in there....

I am very excited about the change in the blog. I have my top horses. 1. Uncle Mo

2. To Honor and Serve

3. Boys at Tosconova

4. Rogue Romance

5. Brethren

I have high hopes for a couple of non graded horses.

I do like: Heisman, Dialed In, Coil, and Lauburu.

Lets see a great derby season this year.

Carl Crawford to the Red Sox!  Fenway Bleacher seats $125.00!  HA!

While I'd honestly love to get excited about any one of these horses for the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, it's hard to get interested when in the past few years it's been proven that the best colt isn't always going to be the winner in the Derby.

More and more the Derby seems to be won by luck.  Who has the good trip, who has the smart jock who knows how to get the best trip, who gets a solid post position (Lookin at Lucky and #1 anyone?), who doesn't get slammed in the first 10 strides out of the gate and so on and so forth.

Then there is the luck of who stays sound enough and fresh enough, yet can still get the needed earnings to make the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field.

That Calvary charge to the first turn with 20 horses makes me hold my breath every year waiting for a massive pile up and usually if a horse gets a bad trip in that first turn you can write off his bid to win.  Is there any other race in North America (hell even in the world??) where 20 horses go the start?

I think the Derby needs to dial back to a field of fourteen and be run like a competitive race.  I think we'd see a lot fewer 'shocking' winners who go on to do nothing more in their careers and we might actually see one of these exciting prospects you're talking about in this blog have a chance to be a Triple Crown contender.

Until then, what's the point of even discussing these colts?  Yes, they're impressive but the Derby isn't about equine talent anymore, it's about racing luck.  

I'm just going to say this about Jaycito: toss out the Breeders' Cup. He looked very nervous to me and he still seems quite green. He's a big horse and may just take extra time to mature. I am so excited about the trainer change for him and can't wait to see him as a three-year-old. And no.. I'm not on the Uncle Mo bandwagon yet, sorry.

1. Jaycito.

2. To Honor and Serve

3. Stay Thirsty  

Oh my, I forgot to mention my Derby Dark Horse... Dreamsrunwild. He was a colt I picked out last year after his maiden win, and though I majorly disliked his effort in the Jackpot, well, at least he had excuses. I'm looking forward to him next year too.

Jason,

Thanks for another informative article.  I like the imbedded links for video.  Queen'splatekitten may have Canadian roots, but there is nothing more the Ramsey's would want than to win the Kentucky Derby!  With his stride and running style they have a shot.

Also looking forward to the California horses coming off of the dirt at SA.  

 mz:  I do remember watching Chateaugay and Candy Stripes.  I went to my first Derby in '68, caught the fever and have not been able to shake it.  Congrats on coming to the Derby in 2011! Sounds like your first time? I'll be there also.  Get your Derby handicapping and bets done early, then enjoy the day with a mint julep or two or...

Hope springs eternal for these two year olds, their owners, trainers, stable help and we racing fans.  Is there one in there with Triple Crown potential?  Stay tuned...  

I agree whole-heartedly that the Derby field needs to go back to 1 gate (I forget if that's 14 or 15 horses at Churchill).  There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since the field went to 20. There are a lot of other reasons, but why make it harder than it already was?

Oh, right, money.........but are the entry fees, stall fees, etc., from those extra 5 or 6 horses large enough to offset the risk in such a cavalry charge?

(and "L", there are many races in the world with huge fields, even Grade 1's.  The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, for example, has a maximum field size of 20, and it's usually full.  The Epsom Derby often has 20 horses.)

" Is there any other race in North America (hell even in the world??) where 20 horses go the start? "

Twenty horses isn't that unusual in some of the big races in the world. The Melbourne Cup this year had 23 starters and had more than that in years past. This year's Cambridgeshire Hcp at Newmarket had 35 starters, which was above average, to be sure; 25-30 is more usual. But the courses these races are run on are wide enough to accommodate the starting stalls, with an open lane for each horse out of the gate. Churchill Downs has to angle the starting stalls to fit in the auxiliary, which means that there is not a full horse-width lane for each horse, and the one hole faces square into the turn of the rail.

The big problem with the Derby is all the deadwood that runs. If the only horses who ran were those who actually had some shot at winning, the field would be a decent size. But these days, the top contenders don't run and beat up on the other contenders enough times to discourage the also-rans' owners. Your horse gets trashed in 3 or 4 prep races and you aren't going to run him in the Derby, even if it qualifies somehow. If it's only one race he is trashed in, you might be able to talk yourself into running.

I'm looking forward to these 2yo's turning three.  Despite his brilliance, I still have doubts about Uncle Mo on the TC Trail, but that could just be me being silly and trying not to get my hopes up too high.

I do wish the Derby would reduce the field size so it's a much truer test.

Jason, any thoughts on Dancinginherdreams crossing over to take on the boys?  She won easily on plastic in her maiden and handled traffic issues to draw away in the Pocahontas at Churchill.

I also agree that the Derby field size needs to be downsized to 14 starters. The stampede to the first turn makes me nervous. Does anyone know when the 20 horse field Derby fields start up?

The fact there hasn't been a TC winner is not due to the KD field being 20 horses...since 1979, of the 18 horses who have won 2 of the 3 TC races 13 won the Derby...11 of the 18 lost the Belmont...it's cause they can't get the 12F!

I also like To Honor And Serve,think distance isn't an issue.

I like a horse named Tapizar. He is a son of Tapit, who won the final race on the Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. He ran 1 1/16 in 144.19. A race earlier on the card, Santiva won the Grade II KY Jockey Club Stakes in 145.31, so Tapizar ran about 6 legnths faster. He also drew off to win by 10 1/2 legnths. He rated in second, and cruised past the leader turning for home. He is out of Deputy Minister mare. The only drawback is he is a May Foal, turning 3 the day before the Derby.

He is trained by Asmussen and owned by Winchell.

Tapit sired 3 winners on Stars of Tomorrow on Nov 27th, and a filly, Switching Gears, trained by Steve Margolis, looked good as well.

Jason, Solis Jr. had the Pamplemousse, correct? This new colt he has, Dynamize, seems like he can go all day. Let's hope he stays sound.

I'm keeping an eye on Premier Pegasus, too.

Good info on Tapizar Billy. He's one to watch. Yes, Solis co-owned The Grapefruit.

Hey L: I guess you're getting into the spirit of the (Christian) holidays what with bringing up Calvary Charges -- but shouldn't you wait until Easter?

p.s.  my spelling is also atroshiush.

p.p.s.  if you really meant "Calvary", then we're taking ourselves waaaayyyy too seriously on these boards.  

Trackjack: Yup.  First live, in person attendance.  (Although if I go in for too many Mint Juleps, I don't know how "in person" I will be.) I'm also gonna see the Oaks and man, does that look like fun too.

Uncle Mo is a superfreak! Although he is awesome I am leary of him winning the derby. Breeders cup winners never win the derby or havent in a long time. Hopefully it wont rain in churchill and the favorite doesnt scratch. I want to be the chalk but its hard when the last two years have been a crapshoot! Keep the horses safe and I will get my beast list together in 2011. Happy holidays!

Carlos in Cali I am always right aka the breeders cup buddy....kinda quiet over there!

MZ, going to the Derby should be on every horse racing fans bucket list. It is awesome. I have been to World Cup games, The US Open, NBA Finals, NCAA tourny basketball games, the Ryder Cup (close second) and nothing compares to the Derby. Not only do you get to have horse racing, you get to party with 150,000 people. The only bigger sporting event in America is Indy for the 500 and the Brickyard. You will love it. Just try to get tickets, and not general admission. You want to have a seat. Also, spend the extra money and try to get a walk around pass. It is worth it.

In ain't easy being good!,

Ever hear of Street Sense?  It was only hard to pick last year's winner if you failed to pick Super Saver.  HA!

Question to ponder: Its it more fun to go watch soccer, watch cars make left-hand turns for two hours, or watch paint dry all day? I'll take the latter.

Jason,  try watching water turn to ice!

Jason: Obviously, you have not really watched Lft-Hand Turns being conducted in Grade A Intersections -- especially during massive snowstorms and particularly if those SUV guys really believe the advertising and think they don't ever need to slow down or think about ice.  

And you still can't help it that you are stuck with (American) Football when everyone else in the world.....I WILL STOP NOW since otherwise, I will be beating a dead horse and it's much better not thinking about that but instead, being thankful for all those wonderful people working in Horse Rescue.

Billy's Empire: Yup (again).  Been to the Arc, the Plate and next year, the Derby.  Still planning on the (mother of all) Derby at Epsom in the next few years.  And what's a "Brickyard"?  My dad was a bricklayer and he never took me to one.  

Ha-Ha Jason,

As long as there's cold-beverages within arms length. Also,what's the chances Mott will send To Honor and Serve to Santa Anita along w/his Cali string.His natural speed is conducive @ both GP & SA,but I know he likes to keep his 'Stars' close to him.

It aint easy,

Say what?..

Pluck is under serious consideration for the Irish Two Thousand Guineas next spring, according to Team Valor's website. He also has a new trainer, Graham Motion, since Team Valor is consolidating all their horses into one barn at Fair Hill.

I do seem to always get in a good nap when soccer or nascar is on

mz,

Yor speling is fien.

thx Ted

luv u 2

mz,

You'll love the Derby.  Get 3rd floor clubhouse seats at the very least.  Dr. Drunkinbum and I are always at least that high.  Speaking of high, I heard Willie Nelson might perform in the infield.  Oaks Day is great too.  If you stand out front of Gate 17 with a "I Heart Ted from LA" sign, I will buy your first mint julep.  The best way to spread Christmas cheer is singing loudly for all to hear.  

Jason,

Is Alcindor 2 or 3? It hurts me every time I see bowling, poker, or billiards being broadcast on ESPN. When will horse racing get it's chance to shine on ESPN?

Billy,

Does Dynamize have a running style that is close to that of the Pamplemousse? I thought the Pamplemousse was a rare horse in that he was blazing fast and never seemed to get tired. It was sad to hear of his early retirement. I wish him all the luck in the world as a sire.

Top three at the moment

1)Uncle Mo

2)Santiva

3)Gourmet Dinner

Beware of the AP Indys (Astrology & To Honour and Serve).  The ones that look precocious usually flatter to decieve because their pedigree has a maturity-lag factor that makes their development too late for the Kentucky Derby.  A word to the wise is sufficient.  Having said that, I think that sons of Pulpit, Stephen Got Even and Mineshaft could prove me wrong, by a long shot of course.  I am watching Sweet Ducky and Dialed-In to further test my theory.  Its going to be fun all over again.

Billy I like to watch the Tapit youngsters too, tasty.  I find GOLF is the best for napping,  all that whispering puts me right out.

My kids are always talking about MO. and they like Dancinginherdreams a bunch too.

I was really disapointed to see your update on Discreetly Mine Jason. Im glad hes ok but another great talent permenantly out too early with injury likely off to stud...

Makes me worry for MO. Thats several of the best in the same hands retired with injury way too soon or just ending with bad form this year... Esky, SS, now DM, Hey what ever happened to DMC is she just on layoff works for her arent popping up in my VS?  we really like her?

When I think Triple Crown winner I think IRON horse with amazing talent. Its hard to stay sound and race at all and to keep it together for the big 3 its just not the "Style" anymore.  

Oh well, for what its worth, I cannot wait to see Pluck again I really like him.  

Really!

Trackjack

  What is the one telling point that we know beyond any reasonable

doubt that the Queen,s Plate and not the Kentucky Derby is the main

target for Queen,splatekitten as a

3 year old? It,s because Ken Ramsey

went to the trouble of having the horse foaled In Canada rather than with his American foals.The one and only horse to win the Kentucky

Derby and Queen,s Plate was Northern Dancer in 1964.In that year he also ran in the other two legs of the American Triple Crown.

In the world of horse racing to-day

what connections are going to run a

horse in those same four races in that same time period? It just is

not going to happen.Also it should

be noted that Northern Dancer was never able to race again after the Queen,s Plate.Queen,splatekitten is

a Canadian-bred and his no.1 priority will be the Queen,s Plate,

the only thing that would change those plans is if the horse shows

extraordinary form over the winter months and the the connections would have to make the decision.Do

we keep with our original plan of the Queen,s Plate are try for the American Triple Crown?

Michelle

 Frankel will get his 3 year old campaign underway in either the Craven Stakes at Newmarket or the Greenham Stakes at Newbury,both races to be run in April.Following

that he will run in the 2000 Gunieas which takes place on the same day as the Kentucky Derby.

The only hope we in North America

have of seeing him is if he stays fit and sound throughout 2011 and he is sent over for one of the Breeders Cup races at Churchill Downs in the fall.Something that is

not beyond reason as his owner,

Juddmonte Farms has always been a

good supporter of that event,plus

they know the late trainer Bobby Frankel whom the horse is named for would have liked that.

John T - Thanks for the info about Frankel.  He looks awesome!  I hope too see him in the BCC.

Another interesting Tapit:  the Rodney Jenkins trained Bandbox who was interfered with in the Remsen.  Give him another chance; his trainer is a top horseman.

Uncle Mo

To Honor and Serve (a great name for a horse)

Queen'splatekitten

I don't think they will shorten the Derby field even though they probably should.

QUESTION:  I have the Derby/Oaks on my Bucket List but I don't know where to sit to get the best experience.  It will probably be a once in a lifetime deal for me.    Ideally I like to be on or near the finish line or by the tunnel where the horses come out.  I am not rich so I can't afford some of the tickets (or cannot justify it to my husband). Anyway I sat in the Grandstand for the Breeders' Cup and HATED IT.  I did not feel part of the event at all.  I felt like an outsider.  Any suggestions would be appreciated.

Jason:

Ronin Dax Joins Lineup For $750,000 Cashcall Futurity

Ranagulzion...gee...you thoroughly missed Bernardini's kids....and they are finishing this year in top form, including To Honor And Serve.  And Bernardini himself is a Classic winner, and a son of AP Indy.

Ted and MZ...you make an ideal couple of hell raisers.  I'm loving your chit-chat ;D

Jason,

My favorite part of discussing all the Kentucky Derby prospects so early is that is a great way for me to get to "know" as many horses as possible who may be in contention through all the Spring races! This year, Lookin at Lucky, Discreetly Mine, and Big Drama were my favorites to watch in all their races, For 2011, I am so far most impressed by Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve. Recent years have shown me,however, that I better see who Calvin Borel will be riding in the Derby.

I have no problem with the number of starters in the Kentucky Derby. I remember watching on TV the year they allowed something like 22 or 23 horses to run. They decided that was too many (and rightly so), so they set the 20 horse limit back then. I don't remember the exact year that was, but I remember they thought at the time that 20 horses would be the most they could handle in the race in the future with any sort of fairness and safety. Perhaps that number will be reduced in the near future if many more horses that are surprise winners walk away with the roses and not much else the rest of the year. In any case, I will be watching how the contenders develop through the preps and pray for no injuries or disasters to befall any of the horses or their connections.

Skyfire, I like Bandbox too. I think if my memory serves me correct he was racing in WV at Mountaineer earlier this year? Tapit also had a 2yo filly that ran in the BC Juvenile Fillies, Joyful Victory, who should be one to look out for next year.

Dynamize has not raced, but his pedigree shouts disance.  

Wow! I just watched the Dialed In video...he looked green as hell running down the stretch but what super talent. Nick Zito may not have to worry about too many second places next year...

I agree Skyfire I love Jenkins from the old days and Bandbox has talent.  I have liked the colt all along and the Remsen was not a good trip for him - he may just need more growing up.  

What if...you could not enter the Kentucky Derby unless you felt as though you had a potential TC winner...and what if, once committed to the Derby, you were automatically committed to all 3 legs.(barring injury...penalty assessed for withdrawal).  That would certainly narrow down the field, and also assure any victory in any of the TC legs as valid.  Just saying...what if.

Michele, the 3rd floor clubhouse seats are ideal, but they are pricey and hard to come by. I have a box in 317 all year long, and then when Derby and Oaks come along, we move down to 313, only b/c we can get rid of our box on the finish line for thousands of dollars and get a box 3 sections down for considerably less money. You can also try to get in the first and second level clubhouse seats, but the view is not as good. Plus on the third floor, you can walk by the Turf Club, Jockey Suites, and owners boxes and see a lot of interesting folks. Last year I chatted it up with Guy Fieri and Tom Brady who were in the turf club right next the owners boxes for the Derby horses. If you want, e-mail Jason and have him give you my e-mail address. I can possibly get you walk around passes, which will at least give you access to all of these sections if you only buy general admission. This is a great way to "experience" the Derby. Again, these are $150 passes, but worth it.

"BTW Mallory, with a name like "Queensplatekitten", he has to be Cdn!  Bred in Ontario.  Remember, the Queen's Plate comes after the Derby so you can run in both (see: Northern Dancer)"

I was going to say - with a name like that, he'd better be! And yup, I sure hope they run him in both; how epic would that be to pull a Northern Dancer? :P

Billy's Empire - Thanks so much for the information.  I am working on my sister-in-law to go.  Our husbands think we are crazy for spending that kind of money for "just a horse race" (in their mind).  They just don't understand our addiction.

This is the best news I've heard all day, no more about you know who.  It's hard for me to get excited about the 3 year olds until March or April.  I remember last being excited about Eskendereya and then poof, he was gone.  I'm really looking forward to the older mare division this year.  With Blind Luck, Havre, Devil May Care, Unrivaled Belle, and Life At Ten, this division is loaded.  Hopefully Life At Ten bounces back from that woeful Ladies Classic race.  

Great to find the Triple Crown blog.  Makes me think of spring in these cold midwest winters.  mz, you got me to writing.  '63 was my first derby.  Though only a youngster, it was great, my dad bet on Never Bend and Chateaugay.  Two more derbies and that will make 50 for me.  To Honor and Serve has my interest right now. Like you, Jason, sure glad there is dirt at SA.  Hope to catch action in Florida too.  

Hey Michelle: I'm going with a couple of friends who also have been roped into getting to the races -- damnit! it's worth the money! -- and we've booked one of those tours so the three of us will be waaaayyyy up at the head of the stretch.  

So I would appreciate your contact info, Billy's Empire, to see if we can get those walk-in passes (if possible).  (thx in advance)

Ted: if I bring my "I (heart) Ted from LA" sign (I will put sparkles and flourescent colours on it) to the Oaks or Derby, will you wear a foofy, frilly hat?  Otherwise, how could I tell it was you and you are from LA? -- unless you bring a loudspeaker and start yelling at all the women passing by if they would bring you double decaf latte with a twist.  

And if you do that, even though I am only a Cdn lawyer, you can still call me when the Churchill security guys pick you up and throw you into whatever the Downs' version of jail is.  Remember, you only have to give them your name, address and birth date -- otherwise, it's still don't ask, don't tell.

Derblin: I loved Never Bend.  But I also just loved the sound of "Candy Spots".

I thought Smash was top dog in Baffert's barn. I wonder what happened to him. Maybe it's minor and he'll be back soon. I would not leave him off of any list unless it's confirmed he's out. Jaycito is talented physically but I don't know what happened in the BC. If he's a space cadet he has little chance to win The Derby. I like Astrolgy also, and I want to see Elite Alex run again. Obviously Uncle Mo is at the top of the class, and we're waiting to see what everyone else can do. Exciting times coming soon. Very good article, and yes, SA is back and that is very exciting. Triple Crown run is officially here.

mz: You're an attorney? And here I thought we could be friends...

Jason, from experience, it is always good to have lawyers and doctor's as friends, even Drunk bum doctors. I am still shocked I got out of a ticket doing 60 over...

Shandler: Friends?!  I don't need no stinkin' friends!!

(oops!...forgot I was Cdn for a moment there....sorry!)

what about DYNAMIC HOLIDAY, she broke her maiden in her forth start and she has a 10 furlongs, since she's by harlan's holiday out of a dynaformer mare and she won her first race by a nose going 9 furlongs

The conversation seems to start and end with Uncle Mo.  I like BAT but he needs to find 6 lengths over the winter.  Until someone beats Uncle Mo there doesn't seem to much more to talk about except can he make it to the gate?

RANAGULZION

So,do we have a bet? You never responded.

BILLY'S EMPIRE

So,when you were "chatting up" Tom Brady was he impressed? lol

lol mz. My brother's an attorney

Thanks ALL for the Afleet Alex babies to watch for. Got to meet him over BC weekend and what a spweet temperment he has. Hoping he has some star power babies just like himself and that as the Derby trail heats up we will see a few of them stamp themselves heavily onto the radar.

Also wondering if there are any Bluegrass Cat colts worth watching out for that anyone likes this erly in the game? When we visited WinStar I overheard a couple of guys there talking and they were saying he is going to have some nice colts and fillies to watch for but I didn't har any specific names.

Jason, have you heard of any?

Coil is out 45 days?  There goes my first Derby hope.  

Zen's Auntie, Rodney, what a rider!!  So many Grand Prix wins.  Like M. Matz, a wonderful horseman.  I hope Bandbox goes on for him

Afleet Treat: Blue Laser is by Bluegrass Cat.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../winstar-looking-strong-for-next-year

I believe only one person on the blog (RJPPDP) has mentioned Rogue Romance thus far. I am excited about watching his progress through the spring as well---especially since his Bourbon Stakes win was impressive visually and run in 1:42 and change for 1 1/16 miles. His third place finish in the BC Juvenile seemed a nice effort for a first start on dirt. Uncle Mo is professional and consistent, but it is a long road between now and the month of May.

Jason: thank you for mentioning Blue Laser.

He really got compromised by Aces N'Kings in his last race ... sent off into the wild blue yonder.

Definitely one to watch.

p.s. I am so sorry that you have a lawyer in the family.  Do you all treat him with the same respect I get from my family -- NONE?

Sky Id like to see Rodney break through with a really smashing horse.

Bandbox looks like he could be at least a progressing stakes horse for him - I will NEVER forget watching Rodney at the garden and Penn National shows he was so fast and confident.  I root for all his charges.

Does anybody know the richest horse race in Cali is tonight/coupla hours: "The Duece", or Los Alamitos Two Million, actually a little more than a duece--and tom's Champion Of Champions has one of the deepest/strongest fields ever assembled at the classic distance: 440 yds, where that last 40/that last little bitty 120 feet---is what separates the greats from the near-greats--there's a five year old mare, #9 Feature Jess Rockin, who is running the best she has ever run by far--she's 20-1, has the bestest post in Quarter Horse Racing--the 2nd from the outside (my opinion), loves the 440 (3 for 4 lifetime/just ran track record--extremely good race, at Fairgrounds), you're getting 20-1 cuz this year's field is that strong--in the Duece, I'm taking #7 Number One Cartel,(12-1) with the fantastic jock Francisco Rubio, also #6 More Than You Know, (9-2), I'll box them and play both win/show...tom I'll play the mare, at 20-1, across the board--if she can break alertly/be in striking distance with 100 yds remaining, I think she can upset the apple cart--it would be a monumental upset, mind you, Freaky and Apolitical Jess are real fast/real classy/real good....

MIKE RELVA,

Do we have a bet about what?  are you ready to bet against Uncle Mo or do you fancy an offspring of AP Indy or one of his grandsons that is not sired by Pulpit?  What are you putting on the table Bro?  I haven't seen your offer.

JASON,

That canadian colt Queensplate Kitten looks real good.  I wonder if the Ramsays are really adventurous and would consider a "Nijinsky" kind of adventure accross the pond in the English Classics.  He could be a turf monster and has the pedigree but maybe we should wait for him to give an encore before getting all excited.    

SLEW,

Bernadini's offspring are best left alone and observed to see if they are really any different from the other AP Indys in terms of getting 'ripe' for the Kentucky Derby.  Bernadini never made it to the Derby in spite of being a March foal.  His win in the Preakness was somewhat fortuitous in the wake of Barbaro's break-down IMO.

mz,

I can assure you I am not from LA.  However, if you have the sign up at 10:00 AM Derby Day, I will be the guy who comes up and tells you I will buy you a mint julep.  You'd have to be a lawyer to afford one of them on your own.  Luckily, I am independently wealthy (or rich in spirit... or both... or neither).  Do you want to go eat food in Louisville?  I'm going to Vegas next weekend.  I plan to bet the farm on some untested 2 year-old whose name I like for the Derby.  Do you know what happens when you give a male lawyer Viagra?  He gets taller.

Billy's Empire - Thanks so much for the information.  I am working on my sister-in-law to go.  Our husbands think we are crazy for spending that kind of money for "just a horse race" (in their mind).  They just don't understand our addiction.

Michelle 10 Dec 2010 1:58 PM

I'll help you on the first Saturday in May.  Do not buy bad seats.  I have a gift... and it is the ability to find great seats on Derby Day.  Leave the husbands at home.  The Kentucky Derby is "just a horse race" and Casablanca is "just a movie."

Look what Zito did this year with his group this past year.  He'll be in the mix yet again.  

It's a big weekend of racing here in SoCal.

I agree with what Jason said on THS, the Hollywood Starlet has come up a solid race.  My eyes will largely be on the promising Turbulent Descent, and there is no reason to think she won't deliver a big performance.  But, it won't be nearly as easy as her first two starts.  She faces some fillies with some real talent, including the speedy Baffert trained May Day Rose, the Sadler duo of Tell a Kelly and Zazu, and the intriguing Wesley Ward speedster Nina Fever.  With a couple of horses with good early speed, the Starlet should be a legitimately run race.  Who will join the likes of Althea, Outstandingly, Very Subtle, Goodbye Halo, Sardula, Serena's Song, Sharp Cat, Excellent Meeting, Surfside, Habibti, Elloluv, Splendid Blended, Country Star, and Blind Luck as a Starlet winner?

Saturday is also a big day for the Quarter Horses at Los Al with the $750,000 Champion of Champions, a race likely to determine the Horse of the Year.  The sensational Freaky is back to defend his title, but this year's field is stronger than the one he beat last year.  Apollitical Jess is coming off a victory in a $1 million race in which he broke Freaky's 400 yard track record, and A Tempting Dash beat Freaky two back.  Then there is Jess You and I, the 08' Champion of Champions victor and 7-time gr.1 winner.  And 3 year old Divide the Cash appears to be getting really good at the right time.

In basketball terms, Freaky is Kobe Bryant, the established star and champion.  3 year old Apollitical Jess is an absolute beast, like Blake Griffin or Kevin Durrant.  A Tempting Dash is a grizzled vet, like Paul Pierce.  Jess You and I is the over-the-hill star like Tim Duncan, hoping to recapture the magic at the right time.  Divide the Cash is the college star, Kemba Walker of UCON.  The field also includes the winner of last year's Los Al $2 million Futurity, Good Reason, the Kyle Singler of the group.  Finally, there is the prolific mare, Spit Curl Diva, the Maya Moore of the field.  All that is missing is the top 3 year old, Double Down Special, the Dwayne Wade of Quarter Horses.  Hopefully, the race will produce something a little more special than Friday night's Los Al 2 Million Futurity, won by the 2nd longest shot in the field, in a finish that saw almost the entire field separated by less than a length.

Matthew, I love Flying Fig, they have got to get that girl to break quicker, she's the quickest ever 2 yr old at LA... imagine if they can fix that break...what a poignant, sweet result for the Vessel family, though...

I like Dialed In, Gourmet Dinner and Blue Laser. Of course we all like Uncle Mo.

Jason, any chance the Euros may send over MegaSuperstar Frankel to compete in the KY Derby? If so, wonder whether they would give him a prep first on dirt. Have you heard anything about this? Eminent Tail could be a darkhorse for the Derby. Wire-wire winner in his last race 11-17 at aqueduct.

A question that keeps coming up is whether a certain sire's offspring are precocious enough to perform well in the Kentucky Derby.

Well, as far as I know, a horse has to have enough earnings in graded stakes to start in the Derby. If the horse was precocious enough to acquire the earnings in Graded stakes prior to the Derby, I cannot see how that horse would not be precocious enough to run well in the Derby which takes place later.

Just wondering.

Shadow Warrior is my dark horse.

Taller! hehe, Ted I like that one.

What's black and brown and looks good on a lawyer?  A rottweiler

I like May Day Rose Gun Bow. It is going to be a fine day of racing in CA!

Speaking of CA, Do you know why CA has the most lawers and NJ has the most Toxic Waste?

NJ got first choice.

THE TRIPLE DIPPER HAS BEE COME A PIPE DREAM???...CHANGE IS "BLOWING N THE WIND"..."THE BOWL" NEEDS A NEW MIXTURE..."LONG LIVE THE KING" BABY!!!...ty...

Michelle:

If you have the opportunity to do the Oaks/Derby, husbands or not, DO NOT PASS THIS UP.  As has been stated, the best seats for views are the 3rd floor clubhouse and up, if your finances allow.

Another option would be to do one day with seats and the other on the INFIELD.  The west end of the infield, around the clubhouse turn, has morphed into a more "family friendly area."  If you get in early (8 AM), with your chairs and blankets and get a good spot up against the fence, you have a great view of the stretch, finish line, turf stretch and a large video screen with all the needed info and videos.  And of course, you can't beat the infield for a Derby Party experience.  We did this in 2008.  Derby Day was great, but got soaked on Oaks Day.  

Churchill Downs also offers an upscale Infield Experience, under tents, with gauranteed seating in a sportsbar type atmosphere.  

I'll be in an infield box suite after winning this year's roadtotheroses.com contest sponsored by Churchill Downs.  We have other friends coming in to do the infield and we are counting the days.  

Press on with your plans.  Good Luck!

I don't know where else to get this off my chest ... so I will post it here, to continue my sidetracking of Jason's point of this blog (probably because I still haven't picked my Derby favourite anyways).

While reading the paper this morning (yes, I still read a Newspaper on paper), a little snippet caught my eye in the Sports Section.

Pole Dancing is in consideration as a new Olympic Sport.

Ladies and Gentlemen: the Apocalypse.

Thanks everyone for all the information.  As I said before the Derby is definitely on my Bucket List.  My sister-in-law and I come to Kentucy every chance we get.  I would move to Lexington if I could, I love it there.  Somehow it feels like home.        

Ranagulzion

JerseyBoy said it best.

Jason,

As usual I look forwards to you bringing to our attention the 2YOs on the radar going into the Gulfstream an SA winter meets. One of the new colts cited in your list has captured by attention. The Bob Baffert trained The Factor has an extremely interesting pedigree.

His sire War Front is a son of Danzig. The 1993 and 2008 Derby winners Sea Hero and Big Brown were both sired by sons of Danzig. (Polish Navy & Boundary) Danzig hails from the Northern Dancer sire line that has been responsible for four of the last 25 derby winners. This might seem to be a very small percentage but this sire line is second to the Raise A Native sire line in number of victories during this period. The RAN sire line has been responsible for 14 of the last 25 derby winners.  Four of the 14 derby winners associated with the RAN sire line i.e., Thunder Gulch, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos and Street Sense were all foals produced by granddaughters of Northern Dancer via his sons Dixieland Band, Danzig and Storm Bird. Big Brown was also via Northern Dancer granddaughter. By comparison, none of the 4 derby winners associated with the Northern Dancer sire line are connected to Raise A Native broodmare line.

This brings us to The Factor. As mentioned above he was sired by War Front a very speedy son of Danzig. His dam was sired by Miswaki who has the distinction of being sire and dam sire of mother and son Arc winners Urban Sea and Sea The Stars. Urban Sea also produced the brilliant Galileo. Miswaki was also dame sire of the sensational Daylami. Now these horses associated with Miswaki broodmares are top class turf performers. It would therefore be reasonable to assume that The Factor would be better suited to the turf. Assuming The Factor is not a turf horse there is a lot of upsides to his pedigree. His sire line is second in # of derby wins in the last 25YR. Two of Mr. Prospector’s sons have been dam sire of two of the last 5 derby winners. ( Carson City/Smart Strike) Neither Carson City nor Smart Strike have the broodmare sire record of Miswaki. This colt is a product from the two lines that have been dominant on both sides of the derby chart. With Miswaki as dam sire this colt is a must follow.

Been to one Derby.  Incredible stuff.  Had second floor clubhouse seats which also get you access to the third floor clubhouse.  Planning on going back this year and getting third floor clubhouse seats. Just an incredible experience.

Also, hope noone will hold it against me but I'm a lawyer too.  However, I practice criminal defense so I can help if you have too many mint juleps.

I own season tickets to the best seat in the house for The Derby. It's an eleven year old leather recliner. It's a perfect fit. Very comfy, like a big hand. When Borel was introduced on TV for the 2007 Derby post parade, the announcer said, "Calvin is 0 for 4 in The Derby." Things Change. In 2011, neither Borel nor Pletcher will win The Derby. My feeling is that Baffert is back baby, but Zito wouldn't surprise, nor would a newbie. A jockey will probably win that hasn't won before. It could be Garcia or Rosario. Has Albarado won before? So Uncle Mo is out. Sorry to spoil the party. Look elsewhere for a Triple Crown candidate. The winner will run a race in January, and have either 3 or 4 races in 2011 prior to The Derby. I hope that narrows it down for you. It's a daunting task. Red Sox are looking good. A Red Sox and Giants series would be a dream come true but the Sox have a much better chance than the Giants of getting there.

Zen's Auntie

   That was a crackup !!!!

JerseyBoy

    Feeling a little precocious today?

RANAGULZION

Read Jason's past blog,Team Pletcher. Posted a comment for you,Dec 4

Spit Curl Diva wins tonight at 15-1.  Ted from LA has spoken.  Who here is NOT a lawyer besides Ted from LA and Dr. Drunkinbum?

Zen's Auntie, another lawyer joke:

A man took a trip out West after a harrowing divorce proceeding. He stopped in a bar, and after a few drinks, stated to no one in particular, "Lawyers are horses' *sses." One of the locals spoke up on hearing this: "Mister, you'd better watch what you say. You're in horse country."

My ex is a lawyer.  He wouldn't go with me to the Derby (2001 - 2006, 2009) -- so I went with friends.  It was a blast every time -- even Smarty's rainy one.

Everyone should go at least once.

Eminent Tail could be a darkhorse for the Derby.joe p. 11 Dec 2010 7:43 AM

Shadow Warrior is my dark horse.

JerseyBoy 11 Dec 2010 8:41 AM

mz:

Is Pole Dancing in consideration as a darkhorse?

Really intrigued by Dynamize.....The pedigree being by Dynaformer out of a seeking the gold mare is something is VERY interesting. The guys at Lambholm do a great job, He will be one to watch for sure. Heres hoping most of these stay healthy and give us some great racing in 2011.

Look for Zazu to turn the tables going longer on T-D today in the Hollywood Starlett.  I think the race will be every bit as good as Blind Luck's dismantling of the field by 7 last year.  

Jason, you need to limit the amount of attorney's on this blog!  Just like we need to limit the amount of mares that can be bred to a stallion.  

I love the bruins over the Flyers tonight!  

Ranagulzion,

Bernardini didn't make it to the derby because he did not have enough earnings. I continue to be puzzled by your posts about the A P Indy’s sons. Here are some cold facts about horses sired by sons of the great stallion:

2010 Florida Derby winner - Ice box (Pulpit)

2010 Florida Derby runner up – Pleasant Prince (Indy king)

2010 LECOMTE winner - Ron The Greek (Full Mandate)

2010 Risen Star winner - Discreetly Mine ( Mineshaft)

2010 Whirlaway S winner - Peppi Knows ( Stephen Got Even)

2010 Tampa Bay Derby winner – Odysseus (Malibu Moon)

Ice Box certainly got ripe for the 2010 Kentucky Derby as he was the unfortunate runner up. Your statements about A. P Indy continues be without foundation. The RAN sire line won seven major 2010 preps and only one horse from that line hit the board. The Storm Cat sire line six major 2010 preps and only one horse from that line hit the board. The A P Indy sire line five major 2010 preps and only one horse from that line hit the board. This further indicates that your statements are not supported by cold facts.

“Bernardini’s  win in the Preakness was somewhat fortuitous in the wake of Barbaro's break-down IMO”

I could support the above statement if Bernardini didn’t go on to be voted (Co-World Champion 3-Year-Old (2006)) Do you realize that Barbaro struggled to defeat Sharp Humor Florida Derby. Sharp Humor was essentially a sprinter stretching out. Name the 2006 3YO that came within five lengths of Bernardini after his maiden victory?

You do an exceptional colt a grave dishonor with statements like the above. I refuse to believe that you do not know better.

Ranagulzion...I'm with Jersey Boy on Bernardini colts.  To Honor and Serve has already earned $264,640, winning graded stakes.  Biondetti, AZ Warrior, and Theysken's Theory are all graded stakes winners at 2.  Apparently, they're not  late bloomers.  And since I picked Bernardini to win that Preakness, I don't think your "what if" counts.  If Barbaro hadn't broken down, Bernardini still may have won....he certainly followed up with a Championship season. Early in his 3 year old year, he had a lung infection and wasn't training for 2 months.

My ex is a lawyer.  He wouldn't go with me to the Derby (2001 - 2006, 2009) -- so I went with friends.  It was a blast every time -- even Smarty's rainy one.

Everyone should go at least once.

skyfire 11 Dec 2010 4:53 PM

Is that why he is your ex?  Because if you took a vote, I'm guessing 95% of the bloggers here would support your decision.

"Hopefully, the race will produce something a little more special than Friday night's Los Al 2 Million Futurity, won by the 2nd longest shot in the field, in a finish that saw almost the entire field separated by less than a length.

GunBow 11 Dec 2010 4:39 AM"

I respectfully disagree Gunbow. The win last night for the Vessels Stallion Farm in the 2 million couldn't be more special after the tragic loss of Scoop Vessels & their top QH Stallion First Down Dash.

On another note, what a tough loss for Dave Weaver on the pick 4 he played last night where he was singled to the fave for $26k. Is it safe to say that the set was just a bit uncomfortable to be around after the race? Guy can't catch a break.

Jason,

Hope you took the easiest even money on Turbulent Descent. You won't be able to get that anytime soon. Still hasn't been hit with the whip. She looked a little off on the left front jogging back to the winner's circle. Anyone catch that?

A new client had just come in to see a famous lawyer.

"Can you tell me how much you charge?", said the client.

"Of course", the lawyer replied, "I charge $200 to answer three questions."

"Well that's a bit steep, isn't it?"

"Yes it is", said the lawyer, "And what's your third question?"

Jason:

Turbulent Descent, the first Moccasin winner to capture the Starlet.

I hope this puts to rest the concern over the precocity of the A P Indy line.

The  top three 2010 Leading First-Crop Sires are

-Congrats by A P Indy.

-Bluegrass Cat out of a mare by A P Indy.

-Bernardini by A P Indy.

Does anyone need more?

Dr Drunkinbum, I always feel precocious at yearend, like a 2yo colt.

Coldfacts I have noticed a little coincidence. Shadow Warrior, like Super Saver, is inbred to Buckpasser. He is also inbred to Bold Ruler, the same way Super Saver is inbred to Raise A Native. I hope he pans out because Uncle Mo needs a challenger. Oh, Shadow Warrior is by A P Indy.

I did take even-money Rock. She is the real deal.

Jason,

With the Santa Anita meet coming up in a couple of weeks, as a handicapper, what would be your approach in making your selections with the majority if not all the horses going from synth to dirt? I'm looking forward to the meet as their should be a good amount of value to be found b/c of this.

Play Baffert and Asmussen horses. That's my advice. lol

lol. So by that statement play the chalk.... haha

Rock,

 Great question, one that I have been thinking about for the last couple of weeks. I'm anxious to see some serious workouts this week instead of light jogging. Jason's advice isn't really that bad!! Asmussen has sent a large number of horses to Cali and I don't think he did it for a change in scenery. If I spot some angle I'll let you know.

Jersey Boy, Coldfacts, Carlos in Cali, Slew,and to all AP Indy sympathizers out there in blogland,

Please tell name ONE and only ONE Kentucky Derby winner that has been sired by the 'great' stallion or even ONE of his sons, after all these years.  Do you get it now? Earnings and prep race wins don't cut it friends.  As for Bernadini, let one of his offsprings win the Derby and I'll rest my case.  I've already said that Pulpit, Steven Got Even and Mineshaft look likely to break the trend and even then, one would have to consider that to be an abberation until any of them can produce a repeat.  

Gentlemen, please consider how long AP Indy has been at stud and how many quality mares he has covered over the period and how many have made it to the Derby and how many have been in the frame. I can only recall Aptitude in the 2000 Kentucky Derby being soundly beaten into seciond place by Fusaichi Pegasus.  Pulpit was the most precocious son of AP Indy ever and where did he finish in the Derby?  He was a well beaten fourth or fifth in the Derby won by Silver Charm over Captain Bogit and Free House.  Since being at stud he has thrown a few precocious ones like Sky Mesa, Corinthian, Tapit and Ice Box (can't recall any other right now).  Thats why he is likely to be the first AP Indy to breakthrough or one of his aforementioned sons (Tapit and Sky Mesa already look promising).  Bernadini needs to be observed not hyped, because he has a huge mountain to climb to overcome his sire's woeful Derby record.

Coldfacts, concerning the Barbaro Bernadini comparison, That ship has sailed. Remember that I gotcha...refusing to take your own 'coldfacts' medicine.  Your memory is so short that you again raise that lame and vanquished argument about Sharp Humour ...come on Bro rouse yourself from slumber!

MIKE RELVA,

I read the post and I'm not at this time inclined to take up your challenge since I'm not gung-ho over team Pletcher for 2011.  Right now the only horse he has that I'm excited about is Uncle Mo and even so I have reservations until I see his 3YO form. Although he's the finest 2YO seen in many years, perhaps since Spectacular Bid, his pedigree does not shout Triple Crown champion in the same way that Eskendereya did last year. "Mo" could romp the Derby and Preakness but be busted in the Belmont purely by pedigree limitations, like Smarty Jones.  I could change my mind later on but I don't make whimsical bets.  Stay tuned Bro.

skyfire

   Hilarious !!!!!

Ted from La

   Good one !!!!!

Jason

   Why did you say lol? I think Baffert and Asmussen are going to do very well at SA on the dirt.

OK this MUST be the last lawyer joke on this blog.

An engineer dies and goes to heaven.  St. Peter looks in his computer and can't find the man's name in his lists so he sends him to The Other Place.

A few weeks later, St. Peter calls up Lucifer and tells him they had a computer glitch and the engineer was meant to be in Heaven.  

"Send him up to me," says St. Peter.

Lucifer says, "Hell no!  While he's been down here, he's fixed the air conditioning and we're all liking the new climate.  We're keeping him."

St. Peter says, "Hey!  It's the rules.  Send him up here or we're gonna sue!"

And Lucifer replies (ALL TOGETHER NOW):, "Where ya gonna find a lawyer?"

ba-rum-pah

Now, can we all go back to making fun of sportswriters?  Especially ones who write about horse racing?

p.s.  I'm still reeling because the Leafs won tonight!

A couple of wins in a row and we'll all be dreaming about making the first round of the playoffs!

(In Toronto, we dream small)

Lynch won't be thinking Derby with Queens'splatekitten. He's a Canadian bred so he'll be back at Woodbine next spring after maybe a couple of starts at Gulfstream. He beat garbage in Toronto and it took him a few starts to beat them on fake dirt at that. Brian owns the Canadian Triple Crown but as my favorite trainer i can tell you his best horse was Riva Ranger back in 1995 who broke down right after crossing the finish line when he won the Graduation by #.5 lengths to go 2 for 2. Unless he goes back to So. Cal. he'll continue training mid level claimers especially since Stronach cut him looose. It doesn't matter because every stakes horse he developed for Stronach was taken from him.

Turbulent Descent surely did NOT disappoint! SHe IS the real deal for sure! Looking forward to her next run in the Las Virgenes in Ferbuary @ Santa ANita! Love her and for some reason I KNEW she could do it! David rode a great ride on her, saving her some much needed ground for her first run at two turns, which she handled very nicely! She was a bit tired running back but I am sure this classy filly will improve off this and I am certain they will now train her foe a little bit longer distance. Hope she stays sound and healthy and lights up the Kentucky Oaks trail!!

:-)

MZ,

LOVED it!! I work for attorneys and it seems we collect Lawyer jokes for them! I will certainly be passing yours and many others here along! LOL!

WoW,  I am really impressed with TB.   I like how this one and Uncle Mo are starting out.  Defintly the ones to follow.

Also Jason, I read that Asmussen is sending 30 of his horses to Santa Anita, this is great news to hear for a change, Maybe now we will see a whole lot more trainers follow suit.   I am glad that these horses can train in California now for the winter.

I'm not a lawyer, but I follow the law of the track:

  I lose more than I win.

Cheers to Aces N Kings!  Just read he placed third in the Springboard last night.  Hope to read more about the race later today.

Cheers to jockey Cliff Berry for all his wins!  Always remember him as Win Willy's jockey.  

Ranagulzion:

When you have a chance look up the meaning of "strawman argument". You have set up a strawman which has become the basis of your position. I will not fall for the bait.

Your argument amounts to this. No one is a top tennis player unless he wins Wimbledon, even though he has already won several other Grand Slams.

You also ought to ask yourself, why is AP Indy's stud fee for 2011

$150,000 STANDS AND NURSES ?

Don't tell me all the world's a fool.

While this subject is SO premature, I must admit it is fun to discuss,  

Jason, what do you mean that "The Triple Crown trail will be relevant in California once again."?

Pioneer of the Nile ran a credible Derby.

Looking at Lucky ran a good race, considering his post and then went on to win the Preakness.

That's not relevant?

Dude, you're starting to sound like Andy Beyer.

Ranagul: Super Saver out of an AP Indy mare, Supercharger.  Oh...do you thinks it's unfair to include his daughters?  Why?  Does it distort your so-called "facts"?  Give me a break.  What about Ice Box, a son of Pulpit who came in 2nd? He had a lot of problems in the Derby, but made a sensational run.  Looks like 2010 saw an AP Indy exacta in the Derby.

I still think Bernardini carries the sire power of granddaddy, Seattle Slew who had Swale.  Now, can we please give it a rest, and see who's really running in April.  Too many promising colts have simply been unable to get that far.

Wow, this blog really did turn the page. How refreshing. ... Why would you play Santa Anita when you can bet Turfway?????

BTW Aces and Kings ran fine at Remington last night on the dirt. ... Nice to see he's no worse for wear after Delta debacle.

Ranagulzion,

You continue to attribute Bernardini’s Preakness victory to Barbaro’s misfortune. I wish to bring some closure to this issue. The horse that won the 2006 Preakness was voted CO WORLD 3YO COLT for 2006. This vote reflects the quality of horse that Barbaro was up against in the Preakness. If you consider the supporting cold facts lame I cannot help you.

“Please tell name ONE and only ONE Kentucky Derby winner that has been sired by the 'great' stallion or even ONE of his sons”

Your obsession with AP Indy is now at a dangerous level as you are now incapable of rational thinking or statements. The question above can be asked about the following stallions that were bred to some of the best mares to come off the track. Secretariat, Affirmed, Deputy Minister, Storm Cat.  I will not venture further back to Dr. Fager, Damascus etc.  Many great stallions have never sires a derby winner. A P Indy just happens to be one of them. You use this fact to support the unsupportable. Mr. Prospector sired his first derby winner at age 27. Mr. Prospector is one of a hand full of stallion that has sired a winner of all three legs of the TC. A. P Indy only need the Derby to join this distinguish group.

“Earnings and prep race wins don't cut it friends”

If any further evidence is required to prove that AP Indy has done serious damage to your capacity to make rational statement, the above provides it. Here is a simple question to prove my point. On what basis is the final derby field determined? Even with defections the earnings list  is relied upon to determine the next horse that is eligible base on ‘EARNINGS’ Earnings from graded races is the passport to the derby. Ask Jason to delete the above as this is supposed to be a serious exchange.

“Although he's the finest 2YO seen in many years, perhaps since Spectacular Bid”

I am going to start charging you for the Cold Facts. You might want to have that statement stricken from your post. The best 2YO since The Bid is without challenge Favorite Trick. He like Secretariat was voted HOY as a 2YO. (Undefeated in 8 starts at six to seven different tracks) He still holds the BCJ stakes record of 1:41.47 for races contested on dirt. Midshipman record of 1:40.94 was achieved on a synthetic track. Kindly update you records and post a thank you..

Jersey Boy, tcc,

Shadow Warrior a son of AP Indy winning the Kentucky Derby? ...ha ha ha ha ...I'm tempted to bet Mike Relva on that one (LOL).  Trust me, that aint gonna happen ...BTW that line sounds eeriely familiar ...well I did escape from that bet with my moniker in tact (LOL) ...Here we go again ...naw ...wont do it.  All I'll say is this "at the end of the Kentucky Derby I TOLD YOU SO!!!"

Tough loss for the B's last night, but what a great game.  Does anyone watch the Heisman Trophy presentation anymore?

How's this for a 2011 KY Derby Exacta Box:  Brethren and Cal Nation?  And no I am not a Winstar employee, just a big fan of the family!  Won big last year on Super Saver and Girolamo, who I hear is coming back in 2011!

So, does Favre play or not?  What are the chances of them delaying the game one more day for Favre to continue the streak?  When was the last time a single game was re-scheduled in the NFL?

Jersey Boy,

It seems to me that you are the one setting up strawman arguments here.  I've said and argued ad nauseum in these Triple Crown discussions that AP Indy is most unlikely to sire a winner of the Kentucky Derby (the most prestigious 3YO classic in American racing history) because he CLEARLY (based upon all evidence on the track over many years) passes on a "maturity lag factor" (my description) to his sons, such that none of them can be ready to win the Kentucky Derby on the first saturday in May.  That has been my observation and the premise of my argument.  now tell me what is "strawman-like" about that.  Perhaps you are just coming to these discussions but I've been making the point for a couple of years now and no one has been able to successfully challenge the point.  Welcome into the ring Jersey Boy, but get off on the right footing Pal ...no strawmen around here.

I wouldn't be so arrogant as to say all the world is a fool but you must admit that in horse racing a lot of hype drowns out the cold facts many times ...do you need a reminder about the HOTY debate (don't really mean change the subject at all ...just making my point).  AP Indy is a very good sire and sire of sires but as far as the Kentucky Derby goes and to a lesser extent the Preakness and Belmont, he is 80% hype and 20% substance, and I'm being conservative in my judgment.  i take into account that he covers hundreds of the best mares on the continent, yet has failed in spite of the hype about his progenies each year to throw even ONE derby winner or even A FEW runners up.  I challenge you to expose the "strawman" in my argument.

Slew,

We are talking about Sire lines here.  Trying to bring the broodmare into the discussion amounts to a drowning man clutching at straws, not strawmen (LOL).  The AP Indy sire line flops in the Triple Crown races.  Yes Bernadini won the 2006 Preakness and yes Rags To Riches won the 2007 Belmont but what does that prove when you look at the percentages.  It only substantiates my point that his offsprings mature later in the season and those that are forced to 'ripen' for the Derby generally develop soundness issues.

Coldfacts,

Favourite Trick was a very good 2YO indeed and I would put War Pass in a similar category but those two did not quite touch the 'greatness threshold' or put as much distance between themselves and their peers as Uncle Mo has.  That's what I mean when I compare him as a 2YO with Spectacular Bid.

You have been a reasonably good statistician/historian on these blogs therefore I'm a bit puzzled that you are waging such a fierce fight on behalf of AP Indy when the COLD FACTS are staring you in the face.  AP Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr Prospector's, neither his sire line, and you know it.  stop fighting this losing war Bro.  Protect your reputation.    

RANAGULZION

Ok,let me know if you change your mind later. I like To Honor And Serve alot. But,we all know how difficult sometimes it is to keep a horse healthy to have a shot of making it to the starting gate come Derby day.

JASON

Agree with you TD is the real deal as you say. Do you think she may challenge males next yr? BTW watched the race yesterday and I thought she made it look easy.

So many West Coast horses went East to get Derby preps on dirt; they won't need to do that now.

Ted:  you know you have aren't with the right one when they fall asleep at Hollywood Park over the DRF on Belmont Stakes Day with all that great racing!   (Good joke :))

Is anyone watching this Bears vs. Patriots game?  It's so cold they showed a lawyer with his hands in his own pockets.

Ranagulzion:

"AP Indy is most unlikely to sire a winner of the Kentucky Derby".

That is a quotation from you today.

That is not much of a statement. Every sire is "unlikely" to sire a Kentucky Derby winner because there is only one Ky Derby winner per year. If the quote above is truly what you are now saying, then you are not saying much.

AP Indy's first offspring became a 3yo in 1997 which means he has had only 14 opportunities to sire a Ky Derby winner. If he never does so, so what? He would be like many other top sires. Saying he is  most unlikely to sire a Ky Derby winner is like saying the summer is warmer than the winter. There is nothing worth discussing. It is a trite observation.

My position is that his offspring are precocious enough to win any Triple Crown race, including the Ky Derby. The fact that his grandsons finished 1-2 last year is not a factor in my reasoning.

(By the way the plural of offspring is "offspring". If you want to add an "s" it is "offsprings" according to Webster).

Everyone's watching the Patriots take apart the Bears!

The Rock:

I was specifically writing about the performance of the horses in the Los Al 2 Million Futurity, which is why I referenced how close the field was at the wire.  The time was the slowest in a few years, and One Quick First Down, the winner, only got into the final by the luck of a shake(he was tied as 10th fastest qualifier).  The race itself, from a quality standpoint, wasn't the best, and I had much higher hopes for the Champion of Champions.

And yes, the human stories around One Quick First Down were great.  

As for the Champion of Champions, I got my wish with a true star performance, as Apollitical Jess won in a new 440 yard track record.  A Tempting Dash ran a brave race in 2nd.  The improving 3 year old Divide the Cash was 3rd, and veteran Jess You and I was 4th.  Freaky broke well, but surprisingly faded in a disappointing effort, his first poor run in close to 2 years.  Apollitical Jess had just set the Los Al 400 yard track record in his prior start in the $1 million Los Al Super Derby.

At Hollywood, Turbulent Descent ran like I thought.  She doesn't blow fields away, but she is just so professional.  The moment Flores asked her to run at the top of the stretch, it was over;  Turbulent Descent responded instantly and put the race away.  She didn't open up on the field, and Flores had to scrub at her just a bit, but I got the impression there was more in the tank than was being shown.

I don't see why dirt should be a problem for Turbulent Descent, nor do I think 9 furlongs will be much of an issue.  But I wouldn't go rushing her off to face the boys.  Somewhat like Blind Luck, Turbuelnt Descent is not a big filly and she doesn't carry alot of weight.  

Turbulent Descent - a lot better than her sire!!  He has outbred himself; must be the AP Indy in him -- what a nice filly.  Hope to her first Friday in May...

It nearly made my holiday with the JETS losing again today. lol

Every time a filly runs a good race, it's like "when are they going to try males"...why? it's a disadvantage right from the start! St Trinnians is better that all of the female horses and she doesn't belong in a male race! And, please with the Cali Triple Crown horses, last two years, I Want Revenge/Pioneerof The Nile/Lookin At Lucky--no, maybe THE WEATHER will make the Kentucky Derby rellivant again--last two years has beed a disaster with the Derby track! SoCal has been right there with some pretty rellivant horses! The (lack of) purse $$ is what will bring down Cali Racing--New York Homers! Why doesn't the Derby Winner cone outta New York every year, the way you guys seem to think about it--fact is, since the advent of the Breeders Cup, the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup have become preps, stepping stone races--no way are those races even remotely close to the prestige that they once had--they lack the rellivance they once had...

Alcindor is a 2 year old. Will be very tough his last race was on nov.28 @ Hol.

I like Umcle Mo but if you look at Alcindor's  race he scares me.

Jersey Boy,

I apprciate the debate with you but I don't get the point/significance of your grammar lesson.

From my observations I might as well say AP Indy will never sire a Kentucky Derby winner but since I'm not God I would not venture such an absolute negative given that anything can happen in a race, such as Bernadini's Preakness victory in the wake of Barbaro's breakdown in 2006.  Perhaps you can suggest to me a better way of saying that AP Indy's offspring will never win the Kentucky Derby without playing God.  He has had prima facie fourteen opportunities but in light of the number of mares covered/foals produced by him, he has had far more opportunities than the average stallion, not to mention the chance of throwing superior progenies by virtue of covering the best mares.  Is that what you call a trite observation?  Think about it a little more my friend.

Ted from LA my ash. Ted wouldn't be caught dead in LA, outside of Beverly Hills, Del Mar, Cucamonga, Azusa, or Santa Anita Park. You see, Ted from LA is from old money, well heeled, rolling in dough since he was knee high to a brandy snifter, but I've never met a more down to earth rich $astard in my life.  He's just like normal folk except that he's filthy rich and likes his Boones Farm. Hates martinis, single malt Scotch and Dom Perignon. Give him a fruity wine and a poor chap to gab with and he's in hog heaven. Merry Christmas Sir Ted and thanks for all of the laughs in 2010.

Ranagulzion,

AP Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr. Prospector's, neither his sire line, and you know it

Well let’s visit the tale of the tape:

Mr. Prospector:

Tank's Prospect – Preakness

Conquistador Cielo – Belmont

Fusaichi Pegasus – Kentucky Derby

A P Indy:

Berbardini – Preakness

Rags To Riches – Belmont

Three of Mr. Prospector’s sons have sired derby winners (Our Emblem, Gulch & Fappiano) Mr. Prospector was born in 1970 and A. P Indy was born 19 years later in 1989. He enter stud in either 1974or 1975. This fourteen year before AP Indy was born. He had a big head start on him at stud. In spite of the head start he has a one winner advantage in TC races. Of the 370 broodmares sired by Mr. Prospector none have produced the winner of a TC race. AP Indy has him by one and counting. I have no quarrel with the second part of your statement.

“Favorite Trick was a very good 2YO indeed and I would put War Pass in a similar category”

You consider a 2YO that is voted HOY very good? I guess Secretariat was also very good. Is that the only adjective you can fine to describe a 2YO with such an achievement? You put War Pass in the category of a HOY 2YO? It is clear you do not understand the magnitude of Favorite Trick ‘achievement. How many HOY votes do you think Uncle Mo would receive for three races you have classified as touching the greatness threshold? Wake up from your sleep. Street Sense was far more impressive in his BCJ victory than Uncle Mo. He holds the record for the biggest margin of victory in a faster time than that recorded by UM. What greatness threshold are you talking about?.

Jason,

Awesome Patriot: Historically he is unlikely to win the derby. He was sired by a BCC winner who happens to be a great grandson of Northern Dancer.  The great grandsons of ND do not sire winners of TC races.  Only one BCC winner has sire a derby winner to date. While two of In Reality’s sons have been broodmare sires of KD winners none of his grandson have come close. Awesome Patriot has too big a historic hurdle to cross. No Chance of this colt winning

Brethren: He appears to be better than his brother. No mare has produced back to back derby winners. I guess if Better Than Honour can produce back to back Belmont winners then it possible. No Chance of this colt winning .

Crossbow: His dam line is none existent on the Triple Crown chart. His dam has too much graded earnings and does not fit the derby broodmare profile. No chance

Dialed In: His dam was acquired for $1.3m. No Storm Cat mare fetching that price will ever produce a derby winner. No Chance of this colt winning

Dynamize: Belongs on the turf. Horses from Seeking The Gold mares are better as 4Yos. Ask Blame. No Chance of this colt winning

Queen'splatekitten: Dame Sire was a BCC winner. The dam sire of the 2010 derby winner was a BCC winner. It will not occur in consecutive years. Of all the BCC winners to date only one has been associated with the broodmare of a derby winner. No Chance of this colt winning

Aces N Kings: Nice story but does not deserve mention. Only one stallion that was not been a graded earner has sired a Derby winner. He was the well bred but unraced ‘Alibhai’

Premier Pegasus is far more worthy of mention than those on your watch list. He looks like the type of colt that can engage uncle Mo and stay with him. He appear to be the best son of Fusaichi Pegasus to date. Will he win the derby? No! His stable companion is more likely to. Remember colt that lead the BCJ field.

It seems to me...all the Derby contenders in 2010 trace their sires to Seattle Slew or Mr. Prospector.  Some claim both. Those odds are simply too high to ignore. And since much of a TB's standing is due to the dam line, I don't know why you would discount the female line.  Silly arguments just to discredit America's leading sire?  Wasted time as far as I'm concerned.  

Another girl named Fran, not me- Can't wait for the Triple Crown Talk BECAUSE THIS IS Afleet Alex's kids year! We have some great horses to watch though- Uncle Mo, but I'm putting bids on Alexandra Rylee to become the next female Secretariat.

rangulzion

why are you trying to knock the best stallion since northern dancer??

you should try picking a different sport??

Jason - do you know a good place to get jockey stats and rankings by year, including info on stakes wins, etc.

Mike Relva,

How about the Jet's strength coach tripping the Dolphin player.  Just another reason to like the Patriots this year!

MZ, you're killin' me here about "pole dancing" as an Olympic sport...gag.

Ranagulzion, I know you were only talking to gentlemen about API's sons producing a KD winner, but as a girl I'll offer up the mare Supercharger as a Kentucky Derby winner producing daughter of API...♥

Just a matter of time for him and Smart Strike...

Patriots ♥

Flores should ride all the best filly's he gets them.

He he mz - Do you guys have ANY idea how many Lawyer Jokes there are??

I have done the research,

there are 3...

the rest are true stories.

Is Sway Away not in the picture anymore?  He showed a lot of promise.  Is he still running?  Retired?  Alive?

TREBLOC

I agree,that knucklehead should get the pink slip. New Eng is rounding into form at the right time. BTW not a fan of Ryan. He's getting his. lol

RNGULATION:

"A P Indy has had prima facie “fourteen opportunities” but in light of the number of mares covered/foals produced by him, he has had far more opportunities than the average stallion"

The tale of the tape:

Mr. Prospector: Entered stud possibly in 1975. Not sure if or when he was pensioned (died in 1999)

Racing crop covers 1977 to 1999 = 21 crops.

Only derby winner was sired in 1997 and was from his 20th 3YO crop at age 27.

Only Preakness winner was sired in 1982 and was f his 5th 3YO crop at age 12.

Only Belmon winner was sired in 1979 and was from his 2nd 3YO crop at age 9.

A P Indy: Entered stud possibly in 1993.

Racing crop covers 1995 to 2010 = 14 crops

Only Preakness winner was sired in 2003 and was from his 8th 3YO crop at age 14.

Only Belmont winner was sired in 2004 and was from his 9th 3YO crop at age 15

Mr. Prospector’s only Derby winner came in his 20th 3YO crop. A P Indy has six 3YO crops to achieve what Mr. Prospector has done. His situation is not as dismals you claim. Let it go you cannot justify your claims when his record is so close the stallion regarded as the greatest extension of Native Dancer. Move on the cold facts are against you..

Coldfacts,

Since you seem to know who will not win the Derby?  Why not tell us who will win?  

I found my thrill on Strawberry Hill, Dr. D.

If I had a dime for every hundred dollars I have I'd be an even richer man.

COLDFACTS,

You shouldn't try to tailor the facts to suit your predisposition. I will assert again,without any fear of contradiction that AP Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr. Prospector's, neither his sire line.  Furthermore I do not see / have not seen any signs that he has any chance of getting close to Mr Prospectors accomplishments in Triple Crown races.

Here are the cold facts of the comparison that you chose to ignore:

1) In addition to siring a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown 'Mr P' has had a grandson, Unbridled, that not only won the Derby but also sired winners of each leg, namely Grindstone,Red Bullet and Empire Maker (talking about a chip off the old block).

2) Mr Prospector has sired nine(9) triple-crown-winner-producing sons, namely,Fappiano, Woodman, Gulch, Gone West, Forty niner, Seeking The Gold, Kingmambo, Our Emblem and Smart Strike.

3) The aforementioned T-C-W-P sons have sired among themselves, the winners of eleven(11) Triple crown races including 3 Kentucky Derbies, 4 Preaknesses and 4 Belmont Stakes. (I will spare you further embarassment by deliberately not mentioning the accomplishments of his grandsons and greatgrandsons in Triple Crown races).

Yes he has a 19 years head start on AP Indy but if you look at the trajectory of their stud careers and consider that Mr P started as an unheralded stallion, unlike AP Indy, the difference should be very clear. I'm not knocking AP Indy as some may think, just putting his overly hyped Triple-crown-winner-producing prowess into perspective.

BTW Favourite Trick was nothing more than a very good 2YO that became a trickster at 3. he ran up an interesting sequence of victories that brought back memories of the ols days when 2YOs used to be raced a lot (eight in a row).  that was the main attraction with him.  His breeders cup win only flattered to deceive as the 2YO crop that year was weak and the really good ones showed up as 3YOs (Real Quiet and Victory Gallop).  

Question - Does anyone think Keeneland racing is relevant?  I love Keeneland it's my favorite track to visit but with all the synthethic versus dirt arguments I wonder.

Zen's Auntie: what I meant was NO MORE LAWYER JOKES.

Rachel,

Your point is well taken ...sweetheart. Smart Strike had a low profile start to his stud career similar to his great sire Mr Prospector.  I would fancy his chances of producing a Derby winner ahead of 'AP' simply based upon the success of the Raise a Native line.

"Alcindor is a 2 year old. Will be very tough his last race was on nov.28 @ Hol.

I like Umcle Mo but if you look at Alcindor's  race he scares me.

Jim 12 Dec 2010 11:28 PM"

Jim, Alcindor is an 07 model, turning 4, not 3 in 2011.

Was nominated to the 2010 Derby but had some problems, slow to develop and back to the farm for some R&R.  

Originally one of the 13 that Lukas had for Legends, thus the basketball referenced name.

The rest of them?  I'm chuckling at this. Every year the hype and the early picks and very rare that it pans out for anyone. You guys sound like the rest of us in the business, dreaming the dream. Too funny and TOO early to be hyping a Derby horse particularly if it isn't yours. :)

Trebloc:

Coldfacts,

Since you seem to know who will not win the Derby?  Why not tell us who will win?  

Trebloc 13 Dec 2010 6:40 PM

There is a tip in Coldfacts following post to your above question.

Premier Pegasus is far more worthy of mention than those on your watch list. He looks like the type of colt that can engage uncle Mo and stay with him. He appear to be the best son of Fusaichi Pegasus to date. Will he win the derby? No! His stable companion is more likely to. Remember colt that lead the BCJ field.

Coldfacts 13 Dec 2010 2:21 AM

Trebloc,

I can only evaluate the historic chances of the horses that I am aware of. Of those that I have seen so far, I think Reverting Reason has the best historic chance of winning. His Cash Call performance on 12/26/2010 will tell if my forecast makes sense. His dame sire was a brilliant turf horse. I am hoping he is not a turf horse as he led in the BCJ and stopped.  To Honor and Server also have an excellent chance of winning the derby. The Bold Ruler sire line is well overdue for a derby win and To Honor and Server is from this sire line.

Ranagulzion,

“A P Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr. Prospector's”

The above statement relates to two stallions. Mr. Prospector sired the winners of three TC races from 21 3YO crops. A P Indy has sired two from 14 3YO crops. How do you conclude the above? You seem to be confusing the sons and grandsons of Mr. Prospector with A.P Indy. The cold facts I have presented relates to the two stallions and not their sons/grandsons. The sons and grandsons of Mr. Prospector are the most prolific producers of winners of Triple Crown races. That cannot be disputed. My comparison is between the two great stallions. If the truth be told none of Mr. Prospector colts were as good as Bernardini and none of his fillies as good as Rage To Riches.

The Mr. Prospector sire line has been far superior to that of A. P Indy but the two stallions are very close when their respective record is evaluated.  I hope this clears up the confusion.

To early on the Triple Crown Trail for me to have an opinion.  Just wanted to say that I'm following the blog and Uncle Mo is awesome.

The problem with coldfacts comments is when he writes "no chance".  The fact of the matter is that if the colt gets in the KY Derby's starting gate he has a chance.  Anyone remember Mine That Bird? I guess last year any horse trainer by Pletcher had  "no chance".  If Brethren is actually better then Super Saver then how can he have no chance?  

The one horse coldfacts likes is Premier Pegasus who has yet to run on dirt and who has he really beat?  

To pick the 2011 Derby winner all you have to do is look at the horses that won over Churchill's track last month and those that are bred for the 1 1/4.  Uncle Mo will end up being the favorite, but I do not believe he can get the last 1/8 of a mile. So, keep an eye on Brethren, Dialed In, Santiva and Tapizar.  

Off to watch some water turn to ice!  HA!

How great is it that Cliff Lee is going back to the Phillies!!  Bummer for all those knucklehead Yankee fans!  HA!

Just wondering if anyone knows of any famous brothers/half brothers coming of age? I read that Invasor has a half brother foaled in 2008...I think one of the Sheiks bought him as well as the 1/2 brother to Curlin? I think there is a gap in the Barbaro brothers - that Margano will be 2 Jan 1st...also there is a full brother to Curlin somewhere but I think he's still young...

Coldfacts and Ranagulzion: I have enjoyed this debate immensely.

Coldfacts, I would like to see To Honor and Serve became a major TC player.  I like his trainer quite a bit.  Also, you can probably guess that I am a huge fan of the Bold Ruler line.

So, I'm going to hitch my 2011 TC early rooting interest to To Honor and Serve and any Afleet Alex colts that make the trail.

I have a half-brother in southern Kentucky and a cousin/half-sister in Missouri.  Neither of them can run.

On the topic of this blog, it's really hard to pick the winner on Derby Day, much less 5 months out.  If it were easy, Caracortado with be your 2010 Triple Crown winner.

Golden Broom (love the name) up-and-coming is one thing.  

Have you ever looked up: Diamond Jubliee and Persimmon or Nijinksy and Minsky (and close relative, The Minstrel)?  How about Ribocco and Ribero?

Speaking of which: any Ribot horses still at stud?

Ted: I feel for the  half-siblings.  Everywhere they go, everyone asks:"How's Ted?".  Probably the same as the questions asked of Julia Roberts.

Ranagulzion,

I don't agree that Smarty Jones has pedigree limitations.  He was beat by a fresh Birdstone who didn't run the Preakness.  Has Birdstone run the Preakness I do believe Smarty Jones would have won the Triple Crown.

MONICA V,

Stamina limitations would be a more apt description for 'Smarty's' defeat in the Belmont Stakes. His sire, Elusive Quality is a track record-setting sprinter-miler that occassionally throws types that can stretch out and his broodmare sire, Smile is a former Breeder's Cup Sprint champion.  That pedigree, top and bottom, doesn't suggest 12Furlongs capabilities at Grade one level.  Smarty Jones used his sheer class to almost win the race.

Archarcharch

TREBLOC

You said it, what a classy bunch of fans. lol

Alcindor is being pointed to the Malibu opening day at Santa Anita.  

Has anyone heard about Unzip Me's next start?  She was third to the boys in the BC Turf Sprint at 9-1 or so.  Love the Cal Bred (Harris Farms I think) over achiever and she's plenty fast with a good record on the sod.  

Vengeful Wildcat...

Anyone know what happened to him since his narrow defeat in the Sapling?

mz: The reason I asked is not so far fetched...ever heard of Jazil (Rags to Riches). Giacomo and Tiago? Ever seen the sales prices these (yes often duds) fetch in the sales ring? We talk about connecting with new fans...this is another way (hello? anyone listening?). They are fanatics still following Barbaro's brothers and I'm proud to say I'm one of them. Trying to bring in non-traditional betters like females raised on the Black Stallion series (yea right, every horse the Black sired was a winner according to Walter Farley) but who are old enough and have enough money to like and want to go watch the pretty ponies run and any excuse to wear a pretty hat and dress...we are the ones throwing the derby parties and throwing our best Martha Stewart mint julips together to entertain friends and spark an interest in racing. We are also a driving force to get our daughters and (sometimes sons) to their first pony lessons. Someone should take note of the GROWING dressage, natural horsemanship and dude-ranch industry. Cater to the ladies my friends...