Dale's Dudes

It's still very early on the Triple Crown trail, but for now we have a good start on which 3-year-olds to watch for at the top barns. Todd Pletcher has three good ones (Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, and Brethren) including the early Kentucky Derby favorite; Bob Baffert has several that could turn out to be special when the dust settles (The Factor, Jaycito, Awesome Patriot, Uncle Sam, Smash, Coil); Rick Dutrow Jr. has three that he really likes (Boys at Tosconova, Mountain Town, and Rustler Hustler) Bill Mott has a two-time graded stakes winner (To Honor and Serve) that he thinks might be his best 3-year-old ever; and we will surely hear about at least a couple of Nick Zito 3-year-olds by the time Gulfstream is over including impressive maiden winner Dialed In.

Zito was one of two trainers to have horses hit the board in all three Triple Crown races last year (Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Fly Down). The other is Dale Romans, who sent out Paddy O'Prado to run third in the Derby and First Dude to finish runner-up in the Preakness and third in the Belmont. Romans updated the status of Paddy and First Dude during our Jan. 11 interview and I will touch on them a bit later, but I also wanted to know about his top 3-year-olds. People seem to forget, other than Mott, no other trainer has more wins at Churchill Downs than Romans.

Romans mentioned four sophomores that he has high hopes for including Black N Beauty, a Devil His Due colt that was an impressive allowance winner at one mile on Jan. 7 when defeating a solid field by 2 1/2 lengths. Black N Beauty broke his maiden in his previous start at Churchill.

"He has a really good turn of foot; we knew he was quick but it was just a matter of whether he would go on," said Romans. "He seemed to improve (at a mile) so I think we'll try him in the Holy Bull (Jan. 30) and go from there. As long as any 3-year-old keeps improving you always think of them as a Triple Crown horse."

Amazingly, Black N Beauty was purchased by Ahmed Zayat for only $2,500 during the Keeneland September yearling sale. Romans said it was Zayat's sharp eye and ability to be patient that helped him wind up with the horse.

"Zayat gets all the credit for this one," Romans said. "He was one of the last horses that went through the ring; I don't even think I was there when he sold. He just hung around and there was no reserve on him. Devil His Due isn't that popular anymore; he's kind of fallen off. But we've had great success with him."

Romans was the trainer of 2005 Dubai World Cup winner Roses in May, who was also by Devil His Due.

Another Romans 3-year-old who recently ran at Gulfstream is Winchill, who finished a disappointing ninth in the Spectacular Bid last weekend. The son of Tapit won a six-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs in November to complete a solid 2-year-old campaign. Romans was not overly-discouraged by the poor effort in his sophomore debut.

"He drew the rail and when he broke he hit the gate," Romans said. "He became a little disinterested after that but he finished up strong and galloped out well. I'm not sure what we'll do next but he may go in the Holy Bull also."

Romans also likes Shackleford (by Forestry), a maiden winner at Churchill in his second start in November. He's out of the Unbridled mare Oatsee.

"He breezed yesterday (four furlongs in :50) and we'll run him in an allowance at the beginning of February," Romans said. "He's a big, strong colt, and has a good pedigree. He has plenty of talent."

Romans is also hopeful for Sequoia Warrior, who is 0-for-2 so far but improving as he gets older. A homebred of Donald Dizney, who also bred/owns First Dude, Sequoia Warrior is by Smart Strike, out of the Pick Up mare Poseida.

"He was immature as a 2-year-old but he's starting to figure things out," Romans said. "He's big and covers a lot of ground. We'll look for a maiden race in the middle of February for him."

Speaking of First Dude, Romans said the 4-year-old colt is being pointed to the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream on Jan. 29. He's had several breezes over the track since returning from a short freshening. First Dude was last seen finishing eighth in the BC Classic to conclude a bittersweet campaign in which he was five times graded stakes placed and earned more than $800,000 but won just one of 10 starts.

"He's probably the richest horse to ever be eligible for a non-winners of one." Romans said. "We haven't lost any confidence in him. He ran great last year but just ran into some tough luck. It's tough to pass up these big money race just to get him a win, but if he doesn't get one eventually at some point we might drop him down to allwaonce company."

Finally, Romans' stable star, Paddy O'Prado remains at WinStar Farm in Kentucky where he is still being freshened for his 2011 campaign. Romans said Paddy, a four-time graded stakes winner on turf last year who concluded his ambitious season with a fifth-place run in the BC Classic, will be sent down to Florida in a couple of weeks to return to training. Romans will find him a race at Gulfstream or Keeneland before pointing him to the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby day. The Arlington Million is the main goal after that.

"He hadn't been out of training since he was a 2-year-old so he deserved some time off," Romans said of Paddy, an Eclipse Award finalist for champion 3-year-old. "We'll point him to all the top grass races."

143 Comments

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Criminal Type

Thanks for the update on Paddy O Prado, He was my Derby horse last year and I'm glad to see him doing well on the grass. Obviously after the Classic, it appears to be his prefered surface. Glad to hear he has had a long break too, He earned a vacation.

Also, Thanks for the info on the three year olds. I was impressed with Black N Beauty's win on Friday and I've always loved Devil His Due, Devil's Bag and the old man, Halo. It would be nice if Black N Beauty could carry on that sire line, since Roses In May is in Japan and the fact that the St Ballado strain of that line all but died with St Liam.

I think it's too early to pick a Derby horse but I will be watching all these colt's over the next few months.

11 Jan 2011 2:48 PM
amy

go!!! paddy and uncle mo!!!!

11 Jan 2011 3:10 PM
JerseyTom

First Dude so much better than his win percentage suggests. ... Looking forward to seeing a reversal of that this year.

11 Jan 2011 3:19 PM
Maurice

@derbycontenders was tweeting about those four last week and I played Black N Beauty as a result. I think he'll be a factor in the Holy Bull, which is shaping up to be a terrific race. Not sure when we'll see Dialed In, but I'm guessing it will be very soon. His works at Palm Meadows have been very, very good.

11 Jan 2011 4:19 PM
Runfast159

As much as it pains me to say it because I'm a huge Uncle Mo fan, we are probably not even talking about the KD winner right now.  He's not on our radar yet.

Out west it's hard not to love The Factor because the horse sizzles.  He has a beautiful, low stride.  But I don't believe he'll stretch out 9 furlongs much less 10.  Right now there is no indication this horse wants to rate.

In addition to those named above I am going to watch 2 horses that came out of the Cal Breeders Stake the same day The Factor won off.

They are Thirtyfirststreet (Doug O Neil) and Arresting Officer (just moved to Richard Mandella)though the former's pedigree indicates he'll have a preference for the turf.

Thanks for the update on 2 of my favorite newly turned 4 year olds.  I think First Dude has the talent to be a top handicap horse, but I'm not sure he has the desire to match.  Hopefully he'll get on track this year.

Of last years 3 year olds, does anyone know where Dublin is??

11 Jan 2011 4:49 PM
Trebloc

Maurice, I agree the Holy Bull is shaping up to a great race.  Black N Beauty ran a nice race and his purchase price is a nice story and it is stories like this that gets regular folks thinking about buying horses.  

My Derby pick Brethren is back on the work tab, firing the 4th fastest work yesterday at Palm Meadows andI  will be in Tampa to watch him run in the Sam Davis.  I love his female pedigree.

Jason, time to become a Pats fan!  HA!  

11 Jan 2011 4:53 PM
Jason Shandler

Good question on Dublin Runfast159. Did he fall off the face earth or what? No works since the Preakness. Have no idea what happened to him...

11 Jan 2011 5:05 PM
Inquiry

Im really excited to see Dialed In run. Any ideas when hes gonna be entered? Gulfstream isnt kind to closers but i really think hes gonna run a hole in the wind next out.

11 Jan 2011 5:34 PM
Footlick

I thought Dublin had chips removed. You would think he would be recovered by now.

11 Jan 2011 5:59 PM
Mike Relva

No doubt N.E. will take apart the Jets.

11 Jan 2011 6:09 PM
Draynay

Runfast, don't kid yourself.  If Uncle Mo makes it to the gate the race is over.  By the way, Big Brown had some babies the other day Jason. Look out, they look pretty good !

11 Jan 2011 6:25 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I think Dublin is in Ireland. it might even be the capital. I think Guinness is made there too.

11 Jan 2011 6:40 PM
Householder

Should see Baffert's Uncle Sam in this weekend's Sham Stakes which used to be in late Feb.  The track buzz surrounds Asmussen's Tapizar off his big maiden win at CD.  Tapizar is no stranger around 2 turns and looks to be training rather nicely at Santa Anita.  I still say all roads out west lead through the Cash Call Futurity Winner Comma to the Top who will be back in Feb.

11 Jan 2011 6:56 PM
The Rock

And there goes Draynay with his fearless predictions. Just like when Quality Road was to make it to the gate, the race was over as well.

I'm leaning towards Baffert this year. Smash was really one that caught my eye last year at Hollywood Park but I don't know if he'll get enough foundation for a race like the Derby. I think Jaycito might eventually turn into this year's Giacomo. He'll hit the board here n there and might make a splash in the big one. Uncle Mo is talented no doubt. But its whether he keeps that form from 2 to 3 is the question. Not only that, but whether these other newly turned 3 year olds catch up to him.

11 Jan 2011 7:50 PM
Trebloc

Reagring Dublin, I heard the ankle chips should have been removed prior to the Derby.  

Householder, Comma to the Top? Really?

Mike Relva, so true.

Draynay, Big Brown's yearlings?  Hip #11 $10K

Hip #41 $9K

Hip #108 $40K

Hip #173 $60K RNA

Hip #@54 $4500.00

They must look great, which explaing all the six figure prices.  Even IEAH can nolonger support Big Brown.

11 Jan 2011 7:57 PM
Coldfacts

Inquiry,

With the lot of buzz about Dialed In I did some research on his pedigree to see where it stands with the Derby history? The result does not inspire confidence. He was sire by a son of A P Indy. None of his sons are on the derby chart. Ice Box by Pulpit should have recorded the first victory for an A P Indy stallion but he was a very unfortunate. Maybe 2011 will be a break thorough year for the A. P Indy sire line. His dam sire Storm Cat has never been the dam sire of the winner of a Triple Crown race. Again, an Ice Box victory would have represented a break thorough for the Strom Cat broodmare line. Ice Box’s dam was sired by the Storm Cat stallion Tabasco Cat. It is very rare for the derby winner to represent a breakthrough for both sire line and broodmare line. In light of this Dialed In has to be ultra exceptional to overcome these historic hurdles. His dam was lightly race and that a plus. She cost $1.3M as a yearling and that’s a negative as these expensive bred in the purple mares are not the ones that produce derby winners. I would be surprise if he wins the derby.

11 Jan 2011 8:03 PM
Coldfacts

Householder,

Purely from a pedigree view point Comma To The Top is unlikely to out run Tapizar at 10F. I watched the Cash Call Futurity several times and he was coming back to the field after his big move heading into the stretch. Tapizar was bred for 10F and appears to be ready to run to his pedigree. My only concern is the fact that the A P Indy sire line has just not been producing derby winners in spite of some solid stallions from this line. Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Friends Lake, Aptitude, Golden Missile, Steven Got Even, Suave, Old Trieste etc., should be able to produce a derby winner. Pulpit did come close with Ice Box.  Tapizar dam sire Deputy Minister has the distinction of being the broodmare sire of one Preakness winner and three Belmont winners. Tapizar’s great grand sire A P Indy has sired the winner of two legs of the TC. The pedigree of Tapizar is proven in the Triple Crown races.

The same cannot be said about Comma to the Top. He is a nice colt but his pedigree is very suspect for the Triple Crown series of races. He appears to be a colt that likes to be on or near the lead. This will compromise his chances as he is unlikely to survive after following the pace of hot steppers Uncle Mo and The Factor. I cannot see him being a serious derby horse..

11 Jan 2011 8:38 PM
skyfire

Jason, I love this series on trainers' three year olds.  Dale Romans is a nice guy; I would like to see him win a classic, but I don't see any horse  beating Mo...didn't Zayat take all his horses away from Romans not too long ago? Maybe I got Zayat's trainers confused.,..

What about John Sadler? Any three year olds to watch out West for him?  He is loaded with older horses that's for sure.

11 Jan 2011 8:52 PM
Hot Rox

Regarding Dublin, I know an excercise rider who works for Lukas. I asked the same question in October and the response was, "he's fine, just resting in his stall."  Which was probably true but seems like she was holding back something, obviously.

11 Jan 2011 9:16 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Question? What happens if Uncle Mo draws the one post? Will you think it's still all over? Good luck!

11 Jan 2011 9:27 PM
RJPPDP

I was impressed by Black N' Beauty performance at Gulfstream. I hope the Holy Bull is impressive like last year. I was also impressed by Tapizar. Saw his race on Jockey day and was more impressive than Santiva. I loved Machen race for Neil Howard at the Fair Grounds. I hope he does well in New Orleans.

I wish of someone who was going to Vegas to lay some futures on these three horses.

11 Jan 2011 11:12 PM
Runfast159

Draynay my point was only that we all start talking about these horses now but the reality is most of them won't do just what you said, make it to the gate.  We all know its a long and perilous road these next 4 months.

12 Jan 2011 12:52 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Rock

  Great post as usual. Smash was at the top of my list but is off of my top 15 now since there has been no activity. Uncle Sam probably has a better chance than Uncle Mo. I'm not saying he's shown more talent but he's one of many that could make drastic improvement. Uncle Sam is supposed to run Saturday at SA in The Sham. He ran 12-27, and The Factor ran 12-26. I was hoping The Factor would run in The Sham. I'm anxious to see if his speed can be harnessed some. The others I'm most interested in seeing how they do next are Clubhouse Ride, Sway Away, and Elite Alex. Then Beamer, Sovereign Default, Cook Inlet, Rogue Romance, and Monzon. At the moment I have a top 17 list. Uncle Mo and The Factor are the two who have been most visually impressive but with Mo I just get the feeling that two preps is not enough or something will go wrong. Maybe I'm just erroneously tainted from losing top stars the last few years to injuries prior to The Derby or think the dreaded dn curse will get him like it got all of the others he touted. Mo certainly was an extremely talented two year old. Professional, smooth and jaw dropping dominance. They better get him two tough races or he is in for a big surprise in The Derby.

12 Jan 2011 1:40 AM
GunBow

I like Comma to the Top as an underrated runner with excellent speed, acceleration, and durability, having already made 10 starts.  And he was much the best in the Cash Call Futurity.  The type of move he made, opening up 6 lengths on the turn, is the type of move that is not frequently successful on synthetic, even Hollywood's Cushion Track.  Remember Curlin in the 08' BC Classic?  More often, the horse that makes this big middle move is caught by a horse making the last move.  Again, Hollywood's Cushion Track is a little less biased, but the type of move Comma to the Top made would have resulted in a 4 length win on dirt.

With all this said, I don't see Comma to the Top as a Kentucky Derby horse.  He might remain the #1 Cali 3 year old, and win the Santa Anita Derby, but I don't think he will necessarilly be Cali's best hope in Louisville.  Now, exactly which Cali horse will have the best shot in the Derby is beyond me at this stage.  The horses that dominated the 2 year old stakes in Cali do not come across as Derby material(consider the likeable JP's Gusto).  Maybe with the Sham this weekend, we start seeing some new faces with more promising distance credentials.  

12 Jan 2011 2:46 AM
GunBow

Jason:

I'm not sure if you realized it, but in the article you have Roses in May winning the 05' Donn.  Saint Liam actually beat him in the 05' Donn.  Roses in May did win the 04' Whitney, his other big stakes victory besides the Dubai World Cup.  Just in case you are able to go back and make corrections...

12 Jan 2011 2:50 AM
HoofPrintsandHorsePlay

Yes the Sham is this weekend but 'the winner's name' has yet to be mentioned.

I have Tapizar on my Derby list but Mr Asmussen is not winning at Santa Anita which is cause for concern.

Uncle Sam is the one I'm watching in the Sham. He has a big gorgeous stride and will be moving up the rankings very soon.

12 Jan 2011 5:21 AM
Don from PA/DE

Looking forward to seeing how the impressive filly FLASH MASH runs at Delta Downs Stakes 7F Jan 14, her maiden win at FG in Nov was eye popping and this Smarty Jones kid. I hope be worthy of some DW comment. Don

12 Jan 2011 5:56 AM
Coldfacts

Jason,

Mr. Romans’ quartet looks very short on TC pedigree. It is unlikely that there is any First Dude or Paddy O Prado in the lot. That said, I think his best prospects are Winchill and Shackleford.  No member of Dale’s quartet belongs to the Raise A Native sire line and this significantly reduces his chances of taking down one of the TC races.

The dominance of the RAN sire line in these races should not be ignored when yearling purchases are being made. This sire line is virtually unstoppable and camps that do not have 3YOs from this line are in trouble.

Todd Pletcher must have a lot from this line but Brethren seem to be the best right now. Bob Baffert seems to have a strong hand with Jaycito, Smash and Coil.  Rick Dutrow Jr. has Mountain Town and Rustler Hustler.

What crazy tangent has Coldfact gone on this time? Well, all three TC races in 2010 were won by horses from the RAN sire line i.e. Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky and Drosselmeyer. Two of the 2009 TC races were won by colts from the RAN sire line Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. Five of the last six TC race were taken down by the RAN sire line. Was it just luck or coincidence? Well! Records do not lie. Listed below is the win record of the RAN sire line in the last 10 Triple Crown sires of races:

Kentucky Derby (7)

Preakness (8)

Belmont (7)

Of the 30 TC races contested over last 10 year horses from the RAN sire line won 23. Each year I try to find horses from other sire lines to challenge the dominance of the RAN sire line with minimal success. I have been consequently whipped into submission and to the line I ascribe dominant over all.

12 Jan 2011 6:15 AM
Lindsey S.

Thanks for the update on Paddy!  He was my favorite horse in training last year (well, along with Zenyatta).  I think he'll be bigger and better this year, and I hope they stick to the grass.  If he'd raced in the Turf instead of the Classic, I think we would have had a great chance at the Eclipse for Turf Male.  Hopefully this year!  Black n' Beauty is already one of my favorite Derby contenders!

12 Jan 2011 8:00 AM
Billy's Empire

Tap Tap Taparoo!!! Just give it a TAP.

12 Jan 2011 9:09 AM
DanC

Bernardini appears to be the AP Indy horse to produce a KD winnner, if not this year, within the next 10.

12 Jan 2011 9:22 AM
BORNAHORSEMAN

IM A  HUGE  UNCLE MO  FAN   BUT  I SAW  A  HORSE  RUN SECOND  THE OTHER  DAY  TO  BLACK AND BEAUTY I  BELIEVE.      THE COLTS  NAME IS  LEAVE OF  ABSENCE      ANYONE  HAVE  THOUGHTS?    

12 Jan 2011 9:44 AM
Jason Shandler

Skyfire: You are right. Zayat did take his horses away from Romans a few year ago. They have since reconciled.

Thanks GunBow: Correction made.

12 Jan 2011 10:34 AM
Billy's Empire

Jason, and update on Dynamize. I know you mentioned he may be running sometime mid Jan at Santa Anita.

12 Jan 2011 10:54 AM
mike rullo

jason

you really dont like any of the romans horses do you??

12 Jan 2011 10:56 AM
Mike Relva

JASON

Hope you had good holidays. Question? I think Black and Beauty has potential,do you think he can get distance? What is you opinion?

12 Jan 2011 11:16 AM
The Bid

M.Relva....You keep talking 'bout Post positions as if it were April 28th or something!! RIGHT NOW..Mo IS THE BEST, No Doubt and No argument...I am not one of those guys who waits 'till Wed. or Thurs. prior to The Derby and make MY bet on Post Position Draw, if that were the case I would've drew a blank on Big Brown-8Belles ex..Jason and Steve will Change there prospected Derby dozens countless times and also mention 3yr. olds no one is talking 'bout up to The Derby...One thing Won't change...Uncle Mo being 2yr. old Champion and THE ONE TO BEAT...Post Position draw is a mere formality and yes is a Major Factor but is NOT THE END ALL BE ALL...THS is The ONLY other right now with a Hint of a Chance...EVERYONE will see when MO makes his 3yr.old debut in THE Tampa Bay Derby w/ a win By 6 lengths...Mark MY words!! B'More in BIG D...Watch and SEE!!!!

12 Jan 2011 11:24 AM
Billy's Empire

One more for you Jason, TAKE CONTROL. What is up with this horse? He could be a star...

12 Jan 2011 11:26 AM
Jason Shandler

Billy: Still waiting for Dynamize's first start. Should be soon. No clue about Take Control.

Mike: Im going to reserve judgmenet on Black N Beauty until I see him in the Holy Bull.

The Bid: Wow, youre touting Mo to win the Tampa Bay Derby? You must be a professional player. Nobody else will have that selection. Please keep the picks coming.

12 Jan 2011 11:42 AM
Paula Higgins

Good blog. Nice to hear about Paddy O'Prado. He may improve even more. One of my favorites. Guys, I don't think Draynay is wrong about Uncle Mo. If he stays healthy, he could be something special. Would love to see The Factor get longer distances. Remains to be seen. To Honor and Serve is my number 2 for the year. Like him alot and Dancinginherdreams.

12 Jan 2011 12:10 PM
The Rock

Thanks DR. D,

Looks like you've got a huge sample to choose from. I've been out to Gulfstream this past weekend, waiting for someone to catch my eye as the next derby winner. Still waiting. Leave of Abscense did run a decent race in the Spectacular Bid against a speed favoring track. Pointing for the Holy Bull.

The frustrating thing about the track's out west is they can't get these Nx1 Allowance races to fill. So we really don't know what kind of talent is out there until they run in a race like the Sham, which will only have 6 horses entered anyway. I really don't know why these races aren't filling up. Is there that much of a horse shortage out there or do these connections not want to take a shot at risking their horses on the Derby trail? Look at the Santa Ysebel this past weekend. 3 horses? really? I'd throw in a maiden just to get some 4th place money out of it.

I think The Factor is going to be this year's version of Zensational. Especially off of his recent :58 flat work. I think they should focus on the Swale and other sprint stakes down the line for that guy. Similar to a Lost in The Fog campaign.

12 Jan 2011 12:36 PM
HoofPrintsandHorsePlay

Isn't Take Control a 4 yr old?

Wasn't he AP Indy - Serena's Song?

Leave of Absence is a very nice colt for Rick Violette. He's been on my list for 6 weeks. He is one of four colts Mr Violette has "On the Derby trail.".

Have an original thought or idea. To say Uncle Mo is 'the best' and 'will win the Derby' is like saying sugar is sweet. Be a leader and 'find' a horse rather than just jump on 'the bandwagon' of Uncle Mo. Mo might not get 10 furlongs. He might not get 9 furlongs come to think of it !!

12 Jan 2011 12:51 PM
Horses10

Expect to see Dialed racing at gulfstream on the 21st!

12 Jan 2011 1:44 PM
Billy's Empire

Hoof, yes, Take Control is a 4yo now, he is Azeri's first foal. Won his debut, went to the farm with shin issue, came back and worked in June and then nothing ever since. Horse has a ton of talent, hoping to see him in the handicap ranks this year if he can get right.

12 Jan 2011 1:58 PM
MonicaV

Dr. D,

Love your Dublin comment.

As far as the 3 year olds, I can't get too excited about Uncle Mo.  He puts Arazi in my mind.  An incredible 2 year old but not so much at 3.  Also, it's so hard to keep the youngsters sound sometimes.

Eskenderrya, I want revenge, Vindication come to mind.  I can't imagine having only 2 preps for the Derby, racing only twice in four months.  I suppose the TC is on their mind and that is grueling but will he have the foundation for that grueling 5 weeks?  Seems like trainers are taking longer breaks for their horses between races.

As far as the horses mentioned, I think anyone at this point could be the Derby winner.  We really have to see how it shapes up in the next 4 months.  It's exciting to see the 3 year olds and how they change from 2 to 3.  I think it's just wide open right now.  We should have a much better idea by the first week in April.

12 Jan 2011 3:29 PM
mickey 1957

first off ,we all know what happened to dublin....lukas was training him, that said.....on to the derby horse's...in no special order leave of absence I really like this horse,don't like (d) rating from true nick's......the factor need's to prove,he can route,but I still like him.....archarcharch this horse will get better, over the next couple of month's.....thirtyfirststreet and brethren both will handle all,who they face at any distance, without disgrace.......monzon,I like, he is a gelting, just one in last 80+ year's funny cide.....riveting reason is a good gizmo horse, can he win, more than likely not.....notice there is "no" to honor and serve or uncle mo on my list.......reasons are "no" four name horse has ever won the derby and I don't think any tc race, for that matter.......uncle mo well,he won't win either....I will give reason at a later time.....you bridge jumper's still need hope, for a couple month's

12 Jan 2011 3:57 PM
Mike Relva

THE BID

You sound like DRAYNAY,trust me that's not a compliment. Yes,Uncle Mo is off to a promising start but to sit here in Jan. and already having him winning the Ky Derby is absurd. This is wide open and anyone that doubts that is a fool. Do you think Draynay will be on him if he loses the Tampa Derby? lol There's other horses out there. Let me know how it works out for you in May. lol

12 Jan 2011 4:08 PM
mickey 1957

post postition's mean nothing to me.....I worry much more who is riding,than post.....give me calvin in the first or second hole,over someone who won't go thourgh a hole or goe's 10 wide on the turn....any day

12 Jan 2011 4:13 PM
mickey 1957

sorry,2-gelting's forgot mine that bird.

12 Jan 2011 4:27 PM
tcc

notice there is "no" to honor and serve on my list.......reasons are "no" four name horse has ever won the derby.

mickey 1957 12 Jan 2011 3:57 PM Then Comma To The Top would also be a four name horse.

12 Jan 2011 5:42 PM
Draynay

Paula, seems you and I agree on a few things again!  Mike, having Mo winning the Derby is absurd? Are you new to this sport?  Greatness doesn't come around very often but you should know enough about it to recognize it when you see it.  I was AT the Breeders Cup and I can tell you the track was a bit sticky and times were not that fast except maybe Nobles Promise time but to see a 2 year old run as fast or faster than any horse on the track that day you have to be impressed.  Speed horses were having trouble with the track all day but not Mo he acted like he was born on the track.  Mo will have something most will not have when they line up in May.  A 2 turn G1 win on the track.  Mo is just 2 races away from getting back on that track and when he shows up in May the talk won't be about who is going to win the talk will be who will finish behind Mo.

12 Jan 2011 5:43 PM
Trebloc

Jason,

Any word on how Calvin Borel is feeling /recovering from the Delta Jackpot accident and will he be riding at Oaklawn?

12 Jan 2011 6:06 PM
Zen's Auntie

I’m not sure where to comment on this so here goes.

The KY DOT? The LAT incident will now be looked into by the KY Department of Transportation?  

Can someone PLEASE explain the connection? Horses were once transportation so therefore 2 months after the incident we look to the DOT? You know, to make sure there isn’t any impropriety, of course.

Oh. Seriously...?

12 Jan 2011 6:14 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Rock

   You could very well be correct about The Factor. I'm still holding out hope based on his stride. Keep in mind that the track at SA is playing a second fast for races and workouts. That workout is somewhat disheartening though since they attempted to slow him down and were unsuccessful. His pedigree gives him the possiblity of stretching out. His body type could also go either way. It's definitely not a sprinter's body type or stride yet. He could develop either way. Remember Ruffian. Fast as hell but could still stretch it out. The Factor will remain near the top of my list until he proves otherwise. He has the benefit of the doubt now. If he is a sprinter, miler, router or can go the classic distances I will love him. He is really talented.

Monica V

   Thank you. You are absolutely correct. I'm not picking a winner until the morning of the Derby but it sure is fun to mess around with it. I will be playing some future exactas though so in that sense I will be picking my favorites to bet in a box, and one to wheel. The chances of picking a winner at this stage is very slim even if you choose the talented Unky Mowster. Or any other one of the Three Stooges. Uncle Mo is talented enough to win the Derby but I don't think he will. Sorry, but this is not Pletcher's year. Baffert is the best bet but there are many others with a good shot at it. Even Violette is ahead of Pletcher. Zito could win again. Romans could get his Derby win which would be a nice story. I give Dutrow a shot with Mountain Town but not Boys. I do hope that Mo and all of the rest of the hotshots make it into the starting gate. If we can get the top horses in for a change then it will be something special. At this point, The Mowster is still the favorite. No one has mowed them down like Uncle Mo has for a long time.

12 Jan 2011 6:27 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Anyone else happy that Larry Jones is back? It just wasn't the same without him. I'm thrilled that he's training again. Does anyone know how long Ted From LA's wife banished him from this blog for getting too many marriage proposals?

12 Jan 2011 6:34 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

If you were betting do you think A. Feather will ever race again? Thanks.

12 Jan 2011 6:59 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jason

   This is not a joke. Can you let Larry Jones know that he should get Tom's of Maine Natural Woodspice Deodorant from vitacost. It has no aluminum, works really well, and has a nice smell for men. So he doesn't have that problem of too much aluminum in his system anymore. It's a good one for any man to use. The commercial deodorants are deadly.

12 Jan 2011 7:03 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I've seen you get behind a horse and change your opinion  in about two seconds.

12 Jan 2011 7:20 PM
Shuvani

Ok, all I want to know is...who is the horse featured in the picture in the link on the main page to this blog? He's stretched in full stride, and looks great. Bloodhorse staff..name please?!

12 Jan 2011 7:36 PM
mickey 1957

sorry.....tcc....I thought,I made it clear "no" mean's even comma to the top,you people from the west coast, need to get a grip......if one reads into most of these blog's,the winner of the derby is going to come from the left coast....without exception...WRONG....one better look at all top 3yr old's.....comma to the top....lol please.

12 Jan 2011 7:57 PM
tcc

Mickey 1957:

Comma To The Top was not meant to be a pick to win, just a mention that that the horse was a four name.

The above horse, along with Uncle Mo, Boys At Tosconova, JP's Gusto, Gourmet Dinner, will not be on my list for the win the 1st Saturday in May. (JMO).                                          

12 Jan 2011 8:59 PM
Kat

Shuvani - That's The Dude with Tammy (Dale's wife) on board.  Tammy looks like that when she's standing next to Dale too. . .

12 Jan 2011 9:36 PM
skyfire

Zen's Auntie:  Exactly....DOT?  Huh?  I think it shows the sad state of horse racing authorities that resolving the LAT situation is taking so long, and that the racing authorities are so slow and indecisive.

12 Jan 2011 10:28 PM
jon

Awesme Feather is never mentioned on these blogs, but she is undefeated in 6 starts, and for several years we have had a good filly or two in the Triple Crown series. I'd like to see her run.

Uncle Mo had a Beyer of 108 winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and will only get better. Even if he improves 10%, that's a 121 Beyer. I honestly think that people can write who their favorites 3 year olds are, but Uncle Mo will remain undefeated, will improve, and no one will catch him. Why? If he gets a minimum Beyer of 121, he'll take the Triple Crown. I watched his stride, the ability to spurt away from the field, and did so handling 2 turns.

Secretariat was 4th in his first start, and while we have had some good 3 year olds in recent years, Uncle Mo has been very consistent. My guess is that will make a mockery of the Tampa Bay Derby, win the Wood, and then sweep the Triple Crown, in a similar fashion as Seattle Slew. All the people who study pedigrees say that Mo can't run distance, the same way they said a Bold Ruler colt whose name I forget couldn't win the Belmont. How'd that turn out?

So, make your lists, but the Triple Crown has a winner. Your lists are just to fill out the 2nd and third in the upcoming races. Meanwhile, the best colt in 33 years will be running in March, and people can fight the fact that Uncle Mo has no equal, or accept it, and get ready for him to make this crop of 3 year olds look like ponies.

12 Jan 2011 10:45 PM
Coldfacts

Dr Drunkinbum,

If it’s possible for you to view the video of Beamer’s maiden victory you might be motivated to add this colt to your watch list. You are probably saying, who is Beamer? Well he is a son of Seattle Slew’s unbeaten champion Vindication by a mare sired by Kentucky Derby and Breeder Cup Classic winner Unbridled. He looked every bit of a derby horse in his impressive victory. The 2010 Derby winner Super Saver was sire by the 1995 Champion 2YO Marias Mon. His dam was sired by Belmont & Breeder Cup Classic winner A P Indy. Beamer’s pedigree closely mirrors that of Super Saver.  Vindication was Champion Two Year Old Colt, 2002

I was advised that he was entered in a claiming race for his debut. Not a vote of confidence by any means. However, the horse I saw breaking its maiden had impressive extension in his strides in the closing furlong of the race.  I was very impressed and I hope to see him again in the Sam Davis to give me a better gage of his ability. He definitely has a derby pedigree.

12 Jan 2011 10:50 PM
tcc

Trebloc;

Calvin Borel Suffers Broken Jaw; Will be Ready For Oaklawn

Nov. 22, 2010

12 Jan 2011 11:49 PM
Draynay

Mike, Mo is a freak and a very special horse.  There is not enough time for horses to gain the 10 lengths they need to catch up to him.  The Tampa Derby will tell us all we need to know and I will be there taking pics.

12 Jan 2011 11:58 PM
GunBow

I understand why some could feel certain about Uncle Mo winning the Kentucky Derby.  He's is a fast, brilliant, professional horse, and is already a 2-time gr.1 winner and proven around 2-turns.  If Uncle Mo just remains at this level, even if he loses a few lengths because 10 furlongs is beyond his distance limits he will still likely be superior to most other contenders.  It's very possible that no contender will turn in as impressive a race as Uncle Mo's BC Juvy.

I am not 100% convinced that Uncle Mo can get 10 furlongs, but I'm rarely if ever 100% convinced about anything in racing.  While I may not be 100% certain, I do think Uncle Mo has a solid shot at stretching his brilliance to 10 furlongs.  Talent alone will get him at least another sixteenth of a mile, so it will be hard for anyone to beat him in a prep race, unless he tails off for some reason.  I believe Mo can get 10 furlongs because he is just so professional; he really is the total package.  His ability to rate is exceptional, and when combined with his speed gives him a huge advantage over the field.

The Derby, as we have been reminded the past few years, is just such a weid race however. With 20 horses there's always the possibility of drawing a poor post or experiencing traffic, and then there is the chance of an off-track.  Add in the crowd, and alot can go wrong.

Will 2 preps be enough for Mo?  Well, as it concerns winning the Derby, recent history suggests yes.  But recent history suggests that 2 preps might not be enough to get a horse through all 3 races of the Triple Crown.  With so much emphasis on winning the Derby, trainers plan ahead to have a horse peak on the first Saturday in May.  And since the odds of winning the Derby are fairly long, you can't blame them for not putting the same emphasis on the Preakness or Belmont; the Preakness and Belmont are great races, but they are somehwhat of an afterthought to the Derby.  

13 Jan 2011 12:12 AM
mickey 1957

my entire list is only,6-horse's deep,but if I had a derby dozen,or in some of the people on here 20 horse list....comma to the top,would not be on my list.

13 Jan 2011 5:39 AM
Trebloc

Awesome Feather has tendon injury and may never race again.  The injury was discovered shortly after she was sold for 2.3 million.

13 Jan 2011 9:11 AM
mickey 1957

tcc-sorry for the neg. comment......I think mo will not progress one bit,givin past history of others,will regress, if anything.....if he regresses 2 or 3 lengths.....it is party over.

13 Jan 2011 9:29 AM
mickey 1957

in the end who was the better horse,street sense or curlin.....my glass stays half full,there's always a horse in the waiting.......curlin better race horse and stud....if curlin had one or two starts at 2....the entire tc could have been diff.

13 Jan 2011 9:37 AM
Billy's Empire

Kathmanblu should be running next Saturday at Gulfstream on the dirt again. Looking forward to a big year from this filly.

Best Wishes to Awesome Feather. Hope to see this undefeated filly win an Eclipse award!!

13 Jan 2011 10:22 AM
Zen's Auntie

My Maiden pick of the week is UNCLE JOE in the 8th on the 14th at Gulfstream. I like this goofy colt.  Not crazy about post 14 he's on the AE list he might not even get a spot though… anyway, I hope he breaks his Maiden tomorrow. Just TAP it in. Right Billy?

Skyfire It's scandalous. I mean it.  The trainer is going to win an eclipse award on Monday if the $ tells the story. Jason you did say he’s a shoe-in right? So if there was any real news its corked till at least after that.

Otherwise the awards handout would be a bit awkward don’t you think?

"Congratulations Sir, you are truly the best trainer in the USA -Well, you know, except for that LAT thing involving over a million bucks in wagers, were your going to have serve a 60 day vacation…., But you know, uh, the rest of the time, you were just tops."

This case makes me angry if I had penny on her it would REALLY make my blood boil.

Wait thats right! I feel better now - the Department of Transportation will get to the bottom of this!  Bring out the shovels and road crews. I always think fast efficient work when I think of the good ole DOT - dont you?

13 Jan 2011 10:22 AM
Zen's Auntie

I see Pletcher scratched Tap for Luck in the 8th at GS today.  

Its a Brisnet Race of the Day  since they dont switch you to the favorite, I will go Nicey Nice.

13 Jan 2011 10:31 AM
Billy's Empire

HA, Zen's Auntie. We do not have much snow here, so the DOT has some extra time on their hands right now. I am fairly certain they brought in the DOT to interview the stewards from an outside party to get rid of the good ole boy stigma that they all stick together. I think that may be in the article. They are just helping out and giving a second opinion.

So, there is Uncle Mo, Uncle Joe, and Uncle Sam. I sure wish there was a Cousin Eddy to help lighten the mood in the room.

13 Jan 2011 10:55 AM
Billy's Empire

GP 2 day, 1 horse in 5th

13 Jan 2011 10:59 AM
Billy's Empire

Ok, so riddle me this. Why would TAPIZAR work out a bullet today, 46.60 at Santa Anita, if he was going to race in the Sham on Saturday??? That seems a little too quick 2 days before a race. By the way, race 3

1 Clubhouse Ride (KY)   3/C L* P A Valenzuela 118 C A Lewis

2 Uncle Sam (KY)   3/R L* R Bejarano 118 B Baffert

3 Anthony's Cross (PA)   3/C L* J Rosario 118 E G Harty

4 Tapizar (KY)   3/C L* G K Gomez 118 S M Asmussen

5 Pride of Silver (KY)   3/G L* V Espinoza 118 R B Hess,  

What is steve up to???

13 Jan 2011 11:03 AM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Question? If Uncle Mo fails to win the Tampa Derby are you gonna do the usual by losing your memory to the fact? It's a fair question.

13 Jan 2011 11:50 AM
crazykid

derby winner runs this coming monday at oaklawn

archarcharch

13 Jan 2011 12:05 PM
Jason Shandler

Billy: See my Sham preview from today. The Tapizar work was faster than what they wanted, according to Blasi.

13 Jan 2011 12:12 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Coldfacts

  I mentioned Beamer on 12 Jan at 1:40am. He's actually number five on my list. I ranked him that high primarily because of his pedigree. I like it. I will watch that race you're talking about.

Billy's Empire

  I'm seeing Tapizar's workout time listed as 47.20, 7th best, which would compare to a time of 48.20 to 49 on a slower track. 4f is a little unusual for a blowout but he is probably pointing for The Derby and developing a condition base. It may not have taken anything out of him anyway on that track if the horse is as talented as they are saying. We'll see Saturday but they are probably just wanting a good run from him with the style they want to use rather than needing a win, which would probably be gravy. It's all speculation without talking to the trainer. Even then it could be speculation. I doubt if the workout distance or time is a problem.

13 Jan 2011 12:19 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

As soon as I submitted my last post I saw Jason's comment that the workout was faster than they wanted. I don't see the article so I don't know what that means. Did it take too much out of him? That's a risky workout distance with a young horse that close to race time anyway. I say it isn't a problem if you look at the big picture of The Derby, unless he now isn't ready to run on Saturday or it tires him to the point where he gets injured racing.

13 Jan 2011 12:26 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

You have all kinds of really fast workouts from the 13th at SA so it's not extraordinarily fast. You've got a 1:10.4 6f wo, a .58 flat 5f from the gate, and two at 46.60 at 4f. It is a little close to race time but they took that risk. However he could easily have enough left for the race. If he isn't ready then scratch him. There are plenty of directions to go at this stage.

13 Jan 2011 12:31 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Now that I've read the article, I see no problem whatsoever with that workout by Tapizar. Blasi said, "I will say he couldn't have done it any easier."  That's all that counts. Workouts at SA on the 13th. Seven 6f workouts were run in 1:12.80 or less. Twelve 5f workouts were run in 59.80 or less. Thirteen 4f workouts were run in less than 48. It's a fast track. That time is not fast enough to worry about in comparison to other times run on the 13th.

13 Jan 2011 12:41 PM
The Rock

Billy,

The track at SA has taken a lot of rain, towards then end of this past week and has been going through some renovations. The clay that they packed down deep beneath the sand has made its way back to the top, and its interrupted training sessions in the morning while maintenance figures it out. Hence, the work 2 days before the race. A lot of trainer's did a similar thing prior to opening day at SA just to get some maintenance work out of their horses due to the weather. This track can't catch a break with the surface they choose. rubber or dirt.

And what's with only 5 horses entering? 11 up north at Golden Gate for the ungraded Cal Derby for 100k on Pro-Ride while the G3 Sham for 100k only gets 5 on dirt?

Has anyone noticed that Golden Gate, with all that rain they get every single year; as far as I know has not cancelled one single day of racing? Maybe the maintenance crew there should go school some of the guys at SA, eh? Same owned company....

13 Jan 2011 12:45 PM
Zen's Auntie

Hmm say UNCLE..

Uncle Carm (blugrass cat x capote mare)I saw too, not doing Much but was in a 60K maiden  back 10/31. Uncle Carm was a weak 7th to Buffam who(another nice colt)won breaking his maiden just hanging on in the mile.

Aunties like Uncles.

All kidding aside in the LAT thing, I just cant help but think that a better overseeing body might be - I dont know a bunch of folks that MIGHT have a little more understanding of the issues than the DOT... Perhaps another animal science or agriculture agency - KSU AG regualtory  or something. Perhaps a Respected veterinary learning center or something would have made me at least feel like they wanted to really find out something. Better yet how 'bout the KSP the police are known to investigate stuff.

Back to 3 year olds - I do like The Factor. Make no mistake he has something special. I love him with Baffert too. Dont get me wrong but he has to have a few more decent efforts before he looks like a Spring / summer classics horse. still he gave me a chill, which is ALWAYS good.  

13 Jan 2011 12:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Coldfacts

   Beamer looked good. Not as good as Mo and The Factor but definitely belongs on any Derby HTW list. He is a competitor. He has no fear of the rail or getting boxed in and seems relatively easy to rate. He was in tight quarters but showed no fear of that whatsover, not backing up at all. I like his spirit most of all. The Sham will be interesting with Tapizar, Uncle Sam, and Clubhouse Ride. We'll learn something and could see a top notch Derby horse come out of this one. It's not a make or break but a good gauge of where they are at now. This race really starts the Derby Trail. Head 'em up and move 'em out. Yeeha !!!!

13 Jan 2011 1:10 PM
Carlos in Cali

Well then look for Tapizar to try and take em' w2w in the Sham,is the track @ SA speed biased?..  :}  I think Uncle Sam will be THE ONE coming out of Cali heading into the Derby,IMO.

13 Jan 2011 2:35 PM
Billy's Empire

Ok, so he did it easy, but I have always been skeptical on works that close to a race.  3 furlong blowout in 36 or 37 to open the lungs and stretch the legs, but 46 and 3 is quite fast 2 days before the race. Maybe he is just developing into a beast. Thanks for the info Rock on the track condition. I am sure that had something to do with the late work. People seem to think that Uncle Sam will be a heavy favorite.

13 Jan 2011 3:01 PM
Householder

I still say Comma at the Top rates a look based on 6 for 10 with 5 straight wins.  He will have more than enough money to get into the gate the first Saturday in May.  We'll know more in a month or so as the Sham has not produced much.  Have to see 1 1/8th...not sure why they shortened this race.  

13 Jan 2011 3:19 PM
Carlos in Cali

Re: First Dude. I thought he ran his best race in the PA.Derby when he came running at the end nearly catching Morning Line. Maybe that tactic will work better now that he's older & more mature. I also think he'll be at home on the turf.

13 Jan 2011 4:12 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Like myself,Zens Auntie states she "likes The Factor". lol

13 Jan 2011 5:18 PM
Trebloc

Stay away from Mennen Speed Stick Gel, "Aqua Sport". Aluminum ziconium tetrachlorohydrex gly 18% is the active ingredient.  I guess I was suffering from the same illness at Larry Jones, but I always thought it was due to the ice cold Buds!  HA!  

13 Jan 2011 7:11 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Elite Alex is running Saturday at OP in the 7th with Borel aboard !!!! There's your probable Derby winner !!!!!!!

The Rock

   Good points. I did notice how well that track was working at GG. I still have hope for the SA track with adjustments.

13 Jan 2011 7:42 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Fractions at SA today included a 43.86 and a 43.75 so a workout of 47.20 is like a 49 probably.

13 Jan 2011 7:47 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Trebloc

  I stopped using deodorant with aluminum in it, and increased my Budweiser usage to get a clean bill of health. You have to drink more Bud to wash the aluminum out of your system. It's a scientific fact. Proven in lab after lab across America. Any beer will do.

13 Jan 2011 7:53 PM
mickey 1957

billy that was funny.....here in the midwest I got a aunt problem....aunt bea on the t.v. aunt jeminia in the pantry....and my 85 yr old aunt emma in the seniors home calling , me for another carton of smokes......sure hope the owner of uncle sam , does'nt go belly up, would not be funny if IRS (re:uncle sam ) come's by the barn to pick up uncle sam.

13 Jan 2011 8:23 PM
skyfire

I reallly hope Tapizar is successful - Santa Anita would benefit by this --  they could use some more Eastern stables sending out some horses as Steve did.

I saw The Factor on opening day -- very, VERY nice horse, but, IMO, more like Zensational than LAL or Baffert's Derby winners.

The LAT epsiode is dragging on way too long -  I can't imagine what else they need to investigate to issue a report-- I personally don't think the blame should be placed entirely on any party -- it was an unprecedented event that was evolving in the moment...a great deal of uncertainty for all involved.

13 Jan 2011 8:24 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

No doubt this list will change over the weekend.

1. The Factor

2. Clubhouse Ride

3. Elite Alex

4. Sway Away

5. Beamer

6. Sovereign Default

7. Cook Inlet

8. Uncle Sam

9. Rogue Romance

10. Monzon

 It's my top ten Derby list at this point of my favorites. Tapizar is 14th. For some it is because I like their pedigrees for The Derby, and it's a list where all have recent activity. Mo needs to work, as soon as he does, then he'll probably be in the top ten eventhough I don't like his 3yo prep schedule. It's weak and The Wood will be a small and or weak field again.

13 Jan 2011 10:33 PM
Footlick

Dr- I'm intrigued by Clubhouse Ride.  Nice stamina breeding on his Dam's side with Seeking the Gold, Buckpasser, Caerleon and Nijinsky II.  And even though he is only a listed winner, he is gr stakes placed.  I think he's going to be one who will like 10 furlongs.

13 Jan 2011 11:35 PM
TNCat

Thanks for the update on First Dude.  I was wondering about him just recently.  He's been my sentimental favorite since the Derby last year, and I keep rooting for a win.  I believe he has it in him.  No more "always a bridesmaid..."

I'm doing my best not to get excited about any Derby prospects at this point.  Last year I was really excited about Eskanderaya, and I hate having my hopes dashed like that.

13 Jan 2011 11:37 PM
Reinier

Okay reading all these Draynay comments has ruined this blog for me. What is it with you people? I know why you guys don't like Draynay (although I refuse to say why). But I mean really...I just came into these comments hoping to hear opinions about 3 year olds. Instead, I read comments that sound like 3 year olds.

14 Jan 2011 1:40 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   I'm not sure he can beat Tapizar this weekend but I love him for 10f and he'll have a tremendous foundation. How is anyone going to beat Fly Down Feb 5th in The Donn at GP? He's definitely the top older horse now. Soldat, another talented 3yo might try the Derby trail. He's another War Front who is going to be a great sire at all distances and surfaces.

14 Jan 2011 3:08 AM
Coldfacts

GunBow,

“The Derby, as we have been reminded the past few years, is just such a weird race”

The statement above is an appropriate depiction of the Kentucky Derby. Because of the weirdness of the race, I have been forced to view contenders through a very wide set of lens. The Kentucky Derby in recent times has become like an exclusive Country Club whose membership is generational and where access to new members is extremely restricted.  Twenty 29 of the last 31 Derby winners have emerged from six prominent sire lines:  Raise A Native sire line with (15);  Northern Dancer (4); Buckpasser (3); Hail To Reason (3); Ribot (2) and Nasrullah (2).  Giacomo by Holy Bull and Gato Del Sol by Cougar seem to be imposter members of the derby winners club.

Where does Uncle Mo fall into the above? Well, his sire Indian Charlie is a great grandson of Caro known for being the sire of Winning Colors. Caro is a great grandson of Nasrullah. Stallions that go back to the great Nasrullah have sired 2 derby winners in the last 31 years. Only one of the last 31 derby winners was produced from the Hail To Reason broodmare line. Uncle’s dam sir goes back to Hail To Reason.

There are a lot of concerns surrounding Uncle Mo’s stamina. I do not share those concerns as I think he will use his class to compensate for any deficiency in stamina. Of greater concern to me is where he fits into the Derby Club. He will be trying to win a race that his pedigree profile suggest he will have an extremely difficult task accomplishing. Both his sire and broodmare sire are several generations removed from derby winning influence. As you have specified above the Derby is a weird. In spite of this, I cannot see him winning the derby with such a soft derby pedigree.

What do you think of Thunder Gulch colt Monzon? In the last 53 years five horses have won the Derby and Belmont leg of the TC. (Bold Forbes, Chateaugay, Riva Ridge, Swale, Thunder Gulch) None of these horses sired a derby winner. Of course Swale met an untimely death so he is excluded. Thunder Gulch was the sire of the off time favorite (Point Given) in the 2001 Derby.  He lost but bounced back to win the Preakness/Belmont. Thunder Gulch had another talented colt that not surprisingly went MIA after showing great potential. You might recall Circular Quay runner up in the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and winner of the Louisiana Derby. Interestingly his dam like that of Monzon was sire by Belong To Me a son of the great Danzig. Monzon was a ridiculously easy winner of the Count Fleet and looked to be on an afternoon stroll doing so. He has a derby winner name and based on how he effortlessly got to the leader in the Count Fleet, he will have no problems with10F. He is a product of one of the most successful derby winning combination i.e., Raise A Native/Northern Dancer. He fit perfectly into the Derby Club.

14 Jan 2011 6:49 AM
mickey 1957

I would just like to say,thanks to all for info,over the last couple of years.....very profitable for me......last year I killed the tc,well over 30 grand,hope for the same this year....billy ...coldfact....tcc and all others again thanks,dr drunkinbum you keep up your comic blogs....also would like to thank the writers....that said now on with the show.

14 Jan 2011 8:43 AM
ryanm

any picks this weekend

14 Jan 2011 11:18 AM
ryanm

i like Arch Traveler @gulfstream on 01/15 and Changing The Rules at @fair grounds on 01/15. Anyone of the two could win the derby.

14 Jan 2011 11:21 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jason

   Thank you.

mickey 1957

  Congrats. Will do my best. Stick around and share !!!!

14 Jan 2011 11:42 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Reinier

   We were talking about deodorant because of the deadly aluminum issue not because some comments and predictons stink.

14 Jan 2011 11:46 AM
Johnny

You guys crack me up with this pedigree stuff..

Time has prooven you never know were lighting in a bottle will come from..

14 Jan 2011 1:18 PM
Draynay

Reinier, you want comments on 3 year old horses here you go.  Uncle Mo is the best out there by a mile.  He will win his two preps with ease and be a Derby favorite at 6 to 5.  BAT is a very good horse that should improve along with To Honor and Serve.  They will both lose the Derby and pass on the Preakness to meet Uncle Mo in the Belmont.  To Honor and Serve will have a real chance at the upset at Belmont.  There you have it.  Nothing else matters and there are no other horse worth talking about.  Happy ?

14 Jan 2011 1:24 PM
Zen's Auntie

Well worth talking about or not,  My buddy Bandbox just popped back up on the Radar - Smoking 46 and 4 for the 4 furlongs back home at Laurel - not that it means much but... that was 4 and 1/5th  seconds FASTER than the next works (two 50.0's) - I can't wait to see him in his first start at 3!!

14 Jan 2011 2:48 PM
Householder

Clubhouse Ride would seem to out class the Sham.  He's got a lot of starts from 4 1/2 to 1 1/16th but does not seem to win much outside of the Fairplex.  He did get hammered in the first turn of the Cash Call chasing some top prospects.  Every one else just broke their maiden so if one did not listen to "track buzz" on the likes of Uncle Sam and Tapizar...Clubhouse Ride would be even money.  He may be this year's "Chocolate Candy." Always just hanging around.  Chocolate Candy screamed distance as well but ran poorly in the Belmont and was backed up to a mile in the Breeder's Cup.  Going to have to rely on the Sidney's Candy to get me out of bed and down to the track Saturday.    

14 Jan 2011 3:30 PM
TNCat

Draynay, how about prefacing your predictions with, "Barring accident or injury..."

14 Jan 2011 6:02 PM
tcc

Jason:

Sidney's Candy is scratched in tommorrow's San Fernando Stakes.

14 Jan 2011 6:05 PM
genquartfan

My top 3 year olds this year are Dancinginherdreams,Black&Beauty,To Honor and Serve, and The Factor. I just love the greys and dark bays. I am happy to see General Quarters back at Fairgrounds. McCarthy says he will be ready in the spring. I hope he makes it to the BCC this year and wins. Does anyone know when Unrivaled Belle's and Join in the Dance's next starts are.

15 Jan 2011 11:51 AM
Tom F V

"Good question on Dublin Runfast159. Did he fall off the face earth or what? No works since the Preakness. Have no idea what happened to him...

jshandler 11 Jan 2011 5:05 PM"

He was on the worktab for today and the work went pretty well.

The plan all along, as Wayne publically stated, was to give him some time off after having the chips removed and bring him back most likely after the first of the year.  The chips became apparent after the Preakness. I'm surprised you didn't ask Wayne, Jason. :)

"Draynay, how about prefacing your predictions with, "Barring accident or injury..."

TNCat 14 Jan 2011 6:02 PM"

This is the key component. The main thing all trainers and owners of promising horses hold their breath for.  

Talent and success at two doesn't always, even rarely translates to success in the Derby. Ever hear of the BC Juvenile jinx? It took many years for that to be broken.

16 Jan 2011 1:07 PM
Draynay

Tom, you can't win a race unless you are in the gate.  There is NO REASON to think Mo won't be in the gate.  There is also no reason to believe he won't win again going a extra 300 yards in May.  He has plenty of stamina on the dam side.

16 Jan 2011 6:09 PM
Tom F V

There's been no reason to believe that many of the early favorites over the years would not have been in the gate. Yet they weren't.

All I'm saying is to make these definitive, can't miss comments would be considered precipitous at best. Opinion and speculation is all it is.

Any horseman knows that Murphy's law is alive and well when it comes to race horses, especially 3 year old Derby prospects in January.

Why do you think the futures are so hard to pick?

Some people are strictly pedigree people and some go on conformation, pedigree doesn't always hold true and it isn't a beauty contest. It may just be that certain IT.

Add twenty horses and 150,000 people to the equation and it really can change the picture a lot. Then figure the preps into it to earn enough to qualify and the possibility of injury, illness or a real clunker thrown in there and who knows what will happen.

Your favorites are yours and some may agree with you, however, those who have their favorites have the same right. Unless you can predict the future you're just using your parameters, same as others are using theirs. Most of us think we have a shot with a prospect or we wouldn't be foolishly tossing money out the window. Not in this economic climate in the breeding, sales and racing game.

By the way who were you touting for the Derby last year?

16 Jan 2011 11:33 PM
Footlick

Dray- Arch/Kris s are not precocious lines.  You may not be able to count on those lines to kick in as early as May or even in his 3 yr old year.  Indian Charlie, on the other hand, is a precocious line, but not a distance oriented line.  I think it is 50/50 whether he gets 10 furlongs by May.  Not saying he won't, just saying it isn't certain.  He has only gone 8.5 furlongs, correct?  That means it is a little more than 300 yds. They don't want to start him off his layoff at 9 furlongs.  If stamina is not an issue and you  assume they will be running a sound horse, why would they not want to start his year off at 9 furlongs if he is going to run 10 in 2 more races?   I would worry about that if you were concerned about fitness or stamina.  You also said that Quality Road could easily get 10 furlongs.  Whether you like it or not, it is obvious he could not.  The problem is that getting 9 furlongs has nothing to do with getting 10 furlongs.  Many many horses who looked like 10 furlongs would be no problem were undone by that extra furlong.  You have to learn not to make statements of certainty.  State your opinion as opinion, not as a certain fact.  If you are proved right, you will be able to bask in the glory.  But if you state something as irrefutable and it proves wrong, you will be ridiculed.  

17 Jan 2011 12:40 AM
Draynay

Footlick, I guess using your theories Zenyatta couldn't get 1 1/4 on dirt.  She raced over a mile 1/8th on dirt one time in her career and couldn't get the distance.  Quality Road had no problem with 1 1/4 he had a problem with catching a fast track.  Indian Charlie didn't have a problem with 1 1/4 he had a problem with Easy Goer.  Uncle Mo has a 2 turn win at Churchill against G1 company.  He beat a very very good horse in BAT.  Let me know when another horse beats BAT.  Until then Mo looks like a LOCK.

17 Jan 2011 1:21 PM
Footlick

Dray-  At least I use facts and knowledge.  Not just brash statements of how a horse is the greatest ever.  Zenyatta ran alot better at 10 furlongs on her dirt try than Quality Road did on his 3 tries.  So you are still wrong.  And when did Indian Charlie run against Easy Goer?  That must have been some fantasy race you were imagining.  Indian Charlie's do not show a fondness for 10 furlongs in May.  Uncle Mo may be the one, but to state it as a certainty is foolish.  I guess I was wrong about stating your opinion.  You have to know facts for that,  Stick to making your brash outlandish statements.  I'll just ignore them from now on.  Indian Charlie running against Easy Goer????????

17 Jan 2011 7:42 PM
Draynay

You're right I did type Easy Goer. Sorry, REAL QUIET.  There I fixed it.

Quality Road caught mud twice and then a sticky track.  He still had a better year than Zenyatta.  Zenyatta finished ahead of QR in the Classic? That doesn't matter just ask Blame. Blame beat the best all year and didn't win HOY.  They gave it to the loser with no wins over 1 1/8th and no wins vs. males.  First time in history I believe.  Laughable.

18 Jan 2011 1:30 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Give me ONE race that QR got a 1 1/4? QR is a miler,like ron Ellis said last yr. It's killing you Zenyatta won HOY. So,tell me how the HOY award worked out for you? lol Obviously 128 voters disagree with you. lol Just pretend QR won instead,you'll be ok. lol

18 Jan 2011 8:48 PM
Carlos in Cali

Read this and cry yourself to sleep Draynay:

QR- Zero Eclipse Awards.None.Zip.Zilch. And No wins @ 1 1/4.

Zenyatta- 4 Eclipse Awards including HOY.And a win vs. males @ 1 1/4.

How you like them apples?...lol.

18 Jan 2011 9:40 PM
Draynay

I believe Zenyatta was given HOY due to the fact she didn't win beyond 1 1/8th and did not beat males.  I believe it is the first time in history HOY has gone to a horse like that.  Sad.

19 Jan 2011 12:17 PM
Footlick

Somehow I thought HOY wasn't going to be discussed.

19 Jan 2011 1:46 PM
Carlos in Cali

Azeri in 02'!

19 Jan 2011 5:27 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Tell me when did QR ever win at a 1 1/4 ? Zenyatta has won at that distance. You will have to live with the fact she beat Blame,no matter what you say doesn't change the fact,not like when you wake up tomorrow and the result will change.

19 Jan 2011 5:35 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, I was just starting to like Uncle Mo. Now it appears that you've doomed him. In regards to Zenyatta, she had the better year, was the better horse and was the most deserving of Horse of the Year...period! Why is it that you excuse Quality Road's poor performances at a mile and a quarter due to a sloppy track, yet ignore the fact that Zenyatta wasn't handling Churchill Downs's cuppy surface? She proved in that race that she was good enough to beat any males on dirt and had their trips been switched, Zenyatta would have beaten Blame by at least 3. The voters knew the difference between ability and luck. Blame had both, but luck played a large role in his win over Zenyatta. The voters recognized that and rewarded Zenyatta with the award she's deserved for the past 3 years. Despite your claims that Zenyatta has never beaten males at a mile and a quarter on dirt, she's beaten 11 and just inches short of 12. That's even more than Quality Road, who's only beaten 9 horses at a mile and a quarter on dirt. Isn't he the horse you said was the next Ghostzapper? You just don't seem to get it and I doubt you ever will, Zenyatta was the best horse in the world for 3 years. If she ran a mile and a quarter on any surface and she received a trip similar to the one she had in the 09 Classic, there's no horse that can beat her. 2010 Horse Of The Year: Zenyatta!

20 Jan 2011 7:21 PM
Furlongs

After reading all these things I really think something is mentally wrong with DRAY... I am just saying. I mean he acts like cause he was at the Breeders Cup live that means something! lol I was there I live in Louisville, I was a guest in Section 320 with WestPoint TB what does that have anything to do with anything?? You act like your the only one that attends the races live in person. I really think DRAY needs some help... We know you love Mo and hes talented, no true handicapper is going to say hes not talented but most are not going to act as if the Derby is his for the taking as well, its a long way until May and trust me touting Mo makes you look stupid and makes you look like a guy that just loves 3/5 when you can get it. So keep an open mind at least on here... It's ok to love Mo but just stop acting like your the only one on here that knows anything about horseracing and what talent looks like... Thanks

21 Jan 2011 12:19 AM
hatechalk

Where you do live drayray?

21 Jan 2011 12:31 AM
Footlick

Furlongs- you will see him blog all over the internet and it is the same thing over and over.  I tried to say the same thing about touting Uncle Mo the way he does, and he just lashed out at me.  I now just skip over what he says.  It's not even entertainment value to me anymore.  I suggest you do the same.

21 Jan 2011 11:19 AM
Draynay

stevebiscuit, you proved you know nothing about racing.  Zenyatta did not race in open company all year. She stayed in restricted poly races all year.  The first time she EVER raced in open company on dirt she got beat.  She never won a thing east of the Mississippi she was a regional champion and nothing more. Blame won. Blame BEAT her. Blame is your HOY he won it on the track and everyone knows it.

Mike, Quality Road never won at 1 1/4 on dirt and Zenyatta never did either.

Furlongs, yes we all know there is such things as injury but throwing that aside Uncle Mo is your Derby winner.  He is far and away the best running and there isn't enough time to make up where this horse is heading.  A 108 Beyer ? Let me know another horse to post a 108 before the Derby.  You are seeing a 30 year horse and haven't even figured it out yet.  Uncle Mo is the 2nd coming.  Wake up.

21 Jan 2011 4:53 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Tell you what,let's just move over Secretariat and say now Uncle Mo makes him look like a claimer,ok? You will have jumped off Mo long before May,especially if he doesn't win Tampa. I can't believe you actually believe this junk,anything for attention.

21 Jan 2011 11:16 PM
Draynay

Mike, the difference between Secretariat and Uncle Mo is simple. Secretariat lost on his way to the Triple Crown.

22 Jan 2011 12:24 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, how many times has Zenyatta proved you wrong?

24 Jan 2011 11:03 PM
Draynay

Zenyatta never proved me wrong.  I ALWAYS said she wasn't good enough to win a race against top males on dirt and she wasn't.  Her record again males on dirt is a terrible 0 for 1.  Rachel Alexandra is 3 and 0 I believe.

25 Jan 2011 2:07 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

You talk as if Zenyatta finished last,that was your horse! Guess you were WRONG when you said Blame would win HOY. lol

25 Jan 2011 6:13 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, I seem to recall the words, "Zenyatta will not win another race all year", being said all year! You said Zenyatta had no chance against a horse like Quality Road and that he was the HOTY. Going back further, you even said that Zenyatta had no chance in the 2009 Breeder's Cup Classic and that Gio Ponti and Quality Road were too good for her. Hey, while I'm at it, you also said Rachel Alexandra and Quality Road would both go into last year's Classic undefeated. Am I wrong?

25 Jan 2011 9:23 PM
Footlick

Again this has nothing to do with the Triple Crown and Draynay has once again suckered all of you into focusing your attention on him.  Move the needle.  Get on topic.  Please.

25 Jan 2011 10:33 PM

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