Will Uncle Mo be Derby Tested?

On Thursday, Mike Repole confirmed that Uncle Mo's much-anticipated 3-year-old debut will likely be in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. That will be the first of two Kentucky Derby preps for Mo, who will then be pointed toward the $750,000 Wood Memorial on April 9 at Aqueduct.

Now that we know where the Derby favorite is going, a couple interesting questions have been raised. How many horses, or probably more accurately, how few horses will show up to face him? And, if he faces what could be short fields, how tested will he be going into the Derby?

They are topics worth discussing because the likelihood that a large number of owners and trainers will be chomping at the bit to face Mo is pretty slim. Think about it this way:

You are an owner/trainer with what you think is a promising 3-year-old. Your goal is to make the Kentucky Derby, which will require a certain amount of graded earnings to qualify. How enticed would you be to show up in Tampa on March 12 to face a colt that is probably far superior to yours? And do you want to take the chance to find out when it would be just as easy to ship to Gulfstream, Oaklawn, or Fair Grounds to face more unproven challengers?

Granted, Tampa did raise the purse to $350,000 this year (up from $300,000 a year ago) and that attractive purse alone might make it tempting to some to take a chance. And, running second in a $350,000 race would bank you $70,000, which is a nice chunk of graded earnings. For sure, there will be some that will throw their hats into the ring, however they are more likely to be local horses, not shippers. If it were me, I think I'd look for an easier spot. There is something to be said about the spirit of competition, but when you're talking about a goal of making the Derby, that can wait.

Tampa Bay Downs' racing secretary Allison De Luca is already anticipating the challenge of recruiting suitable competitors if Mo does come.

"It's very exciting for us, but it probably would make it tougher, no doubt," she said. "I think a big thing will be seeing how the Sam F. Davis (Feb. 12) comes out. Sometimes you have a dominant horse come out of there and even the horses that run well in that race (would be willing to run in the Tampa Bay Derby) because they have an edge over the track. Some of the local trainers here don't care who is in the race. They don't hedge. They pick their spots and go for it because they like this track.

"But our stakes coordinator has already been down to Miami and met with most of the trainers with top 3-year-olds (at Gulfstream and Calder). I think we might have an advantage over some of the other tracks because Tampa has proven over recent years as being a good place to prep for the Derby (Super Saver was third in the Tampa Bay Derby last year). Plus, they know the weather is rarely a factor, and even if it does rain this surface gets better (with moisture). So we have that going for us, plus the bigger purse and it's now a grade II."

Like the Tampa Bay Derby, the Wood would seem unlikely to draw a large field of challengers for Uncle Mo either. First off, over the past six years the race has attracted an average field size of just over seven. With it being the last chance for 3-year-olds to punch their tickets to the Big Show, I can't imagine connections will be that eager to put all of their eggs in that basket, especially if Mo wins impressively in Tampa.

In addition to all of this, we already know that two of the other most accomplished 3-year-olds, To Honor and Serve (Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby) and Boys At Tosconova (Holy Bull, Florida Derby), are going to be on different paths than Mo through the Derby trail. And he definitely won't face stablemates Brethren and Stay Thirsty.

So I guess my point is this: Assuming Uncle Mo faces and disposes of short fields in both of his prep races (that's a big ‘if,' I know it's still very early), he will likely go into the Derby as one of the shortest-priced favorites in a long time. And he may do so without being stiffly tested as a 3-year-old.

In today's era of racing where top Derby prospects are raced as few as two times before the first Saturday in May, connections have to pick their spots carefully. By doing so and avoiding the top contenders, it can be tough to gauge how good the Derby favorites really are.

We will likely have to make that decision with Uncle Mo in a few months.

328 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Brian Appleton

One thing going for Uncle Mo is the fact that he has at least won a big race over Churchill Downs surface in a fairly large field. The Derby field though will dwarf the Breeders' Cup Juvenile!

Can't wait to see him make his 2011 debut!

Loved this article!

14 Jan 2011 3:18 PM
Trebloc

I would love to see Baffert run The Factor in the Tampa Derby.

How cool would it be if Brethren and Uncle Mo enter the Derby undefeated?

14 Jan 2011 4:16 PM
Billy's Empire

Well, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown all went into the Derby undefeated, and they came out the same way. If Mo stays at this level, he could do the same. Right now, he is vastly superior to this 3yo crop.

14 Jan 2011 4:37 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Jason,

We also have to remember that it will be close to 5 months in between races for Uncle Mo.  As a shipper, if I do have a horse hitting the right stride with a race under my belt and high hopes, a short field in the Tampa Derby would be a great option.  

A completely different horse, but with the same expectations was War Pass.  He was one of a 5 horse field and lost (in the Tampa Derby if I am not mistaken).  If there is one place to tackle Uncle Mo without a lot of competition it would be there.  Just my thoughts.

14 Jan 2011 4:46 PM
CA BDH

Seems to me the owner of a good 3YO should pick a menu of several derby preps, run in 3 or so of them for decent purses, skip the derby and run in the preakness.  Sounds sacreligious, I know, but with 20 horses--several of which don't belong and don't have a chance of winning--bouncing each other around, along with possible rain, the best horse has a small chance of winning.  If I liked my 3YO, I wouldn't like those odds.  

14 Jan 2011 4:51 PM
Jason Shandler

War Pass was one of the easiest play againsts ever in that TB Derby. He was 1-20. I nailed that exacta. Mo isnt a one-dimensional horse like War Pass was. Not saying he cant be beat, but he is a completely different kind of horse.

14 Jan 2011 4:57 PM
Justine

He's not running until MARCH?!

I really shouldn't be surprised by now.

14 Jan 2011 5:37 PM
josue555

hey jason, is saw war pass in the breeders cup juvenile in NJ and in the wood and he would have won the wood if that rabbit wouldn't have been there and he was a good horse and I would have love to see him run against big brown, I don't care if he would have beat him or not but would have been fun to see if that would have force big brown to move earlier.

14 Jan 2011 5:41 PM
Ranagulzion

JASON,

The connections of "Mo" want to have a fresh but fit horse ready to go the rigorous Triple crown races series so if the fields come up short that would still suit them fine.  However an enterprising owner/trainer of a good rival should try measuring his/her charge against Mo in one of those preps to see where they realistically stand at that stage.

14 Jan 2011 6:02 PM
Austin

My guy is THAS and has been since last October. But yeah, I think he has a good shot at winning the TC. That's how good I think he is! He has the speed, stamina, pedigree and connections to do so.

14 Jan 2011 6:32 PM
Draynay

Why are we talking about The Factor? Is he a G1 winning horse?  Has he won a Graded race?  Uncle Mo has a huge win on the surface and he will have 2 nice easy preps before the Derby.  I say give him the crown and let's move on to the Preakness.

14 Jan 2011 6:38 PM
stepaheadstables

Manicero is running in the Pasco tomorrow and if he has a good showing, will be pointed to the Sam Davis. I can bet if he shows up in those races, he will take a shot at the TB Derby with Mo.

14 Jan 2011 6:49 PM
Slew

I think that if I had a promising 3 year old, and had confidence in him, I'd love to put him up against Uncle Mo for the acid test.  As good as Uncle Mo seems to be, what is the point of preps if not to test your horse against the best.  But I would also be running my horse at least once or twice before March.  The fragility of the competitors should not be happening to Arabian descendants.  

14 Jan 2011 7:05 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Street Sense is the only one I know of with a circumstance almost exactly the same as Uncle Mo's. Street Sense won the BC Juv, then did not run again until the Tampa Bay Derby where he won by a nose in a tremendous duel with Any Given Saturday. Then he had one more 3yo prep, the Blue Grass at Keeneland where he came in second by a nose where the top three were seperated by a head. He had only two 3yo preps prior to The Derby, and won The Derby. He only had two preps but was definitely battle tested in both. The 2007 Derby with Street Sense was Borel's first Derby win, but now he has won 3 of the last four. I doubt if Mo is going to be tested the way Street Sense was and will probably be in for a rude awakening in The Derby. With million dollar purses at OP, SA, FG and GP, the 750k could hurt The Wood's chances of getting a strong and large field. Mo's best hope for a battle might be The Tampa Bay Derby which could possibly have a decent field for Mo's first back off a layoff. So Mo is supposedly going for The Wood, whereas Street Sense ran in The Blue Grass, other than that it is almost exactly the same, so the precedent for a Derby victory has been set, and Uncle Mo put on one of the greatest 2yo exhibitions in history. Although they could change their mind about The Wood depending on what happens at TB, or if they decide a prep that prepares Mo better for The Derby is mo important than racing in the owner's home state. On the other hand, would it really surprise anyone if Mo is retired to stud before The Derby after incurring a minor injury?

14 Jan 2011 7:09 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

   Really cool that the Kentucky Oaks is now a million dolla' race don't you think? I would be running my horse once or twice before March also, and I would be running him against Mo in my final prep if Mo was in a decent race. I do think that The Wood would be my fifth choice most likely. I wouldn't be looking for a small field. I'd be looking for a big field with some quality horses to give him some idea of what it is going to be like. It won't be a Bumper Car or Demolition Derby or Black Friday at Walmart like The Derby but I'd want as good of competition as I could find in as large of a field as I could find but it wouldn't be The Blue Grass. It's got to be dirt. We still have that pact of not kicking the bucket at least until we have a Triple Crown winner again, right?

14 Jan 2011 7:30 PM
TradingPlaces

Well Riddle did it with Man o War, a horse who is arguabley one of the top 5 horses in history if not ranked number 1 by many. Would it be something completely unheard of today for the top 3yr old male to skip the Derby, yes. However it would be smart.

14 Jan 2011 7:40 PM
John T

The Tampa Bay Derby is the perfect

race to take on Uncle Mo for the simple reason sometimes a good 2 year old just does not train on as

a 3 year old.Sure Uncle Mo might turn out to be a great champion but we don,t know that until he runs as a 3 year old.As we saw last week with the Seattle Seahawks

that,s why they play the games,

that,s why they run the races.

14 Jan 2011 7:46 PM
LAZMANNICK

Schoolyard Dreams who was 2nd by a nose in last year's Tampa Bay Derby, finishing ahead of Super Saver, was out today in the 8th at Tampa in his first start since an up the track finish in the G3 Pegasus at Monmouth last June.  He made a move turning for home but tired and finished third.

14 Jan 2011 8:22 PM
Draynay

I will be at Tampa Downs tomorrow making my reservations for Uncle Mo. He will win by 6 in a hand ride.  Is it too early to be right?

14 Jan 2011 8:39 PM
LAZMANNICK

Tampa is a different kind of track, often hard to figure. If there is one track that I wouldn't feel confident running a top horse on its the dirt at Tampa.

14 Jan 2011 8:50 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Tell you what,if your new sensation Uncle Mo  stays in one piece and wins the Kentucky Derby I will take a 3 month exile from this blog like I did last yr. You see,unlike you lol I've got the stones to back it. Ask Jason if he incurred problems getting his money after I lost to him in Nov. If your horse of the month Uncle Mo goes into the gate and loses YOU have to stay off here three months,no posting under other names. I'm a man of my word,certain Jason will agree with me. Come on,you have this horse winning the triple,step up and take my offer. Unless........

14 Jan 2011 9:55 PM
Vic-S

Uncle Mo is up against it.  His breeding says he won't make a 1 1/4, his leg action says he is likely for injury and his connections have less than stellar records for the Derby.  Pletcher is what 1 in 20+ or 30+ in the Derby, I like Uncle Mo but he has a lot to do before the Derby only time will tell.

14 Jan 2011 11:24 PM
mickey 1957

sounds to me,mo will have a couple of stroll's in the park,prior to the derby,this is not good....dr.drunkinbum you are correct about street sense,then what happened in the preakness,beat by a horse with 3-lifetime starts....mo could win the derby although ,my money won't be on him,but with just 2-preps heading into the tc.....mo won't win "no" tc.

14 Jan 2011 11:26 PM
mickey 1957

question:of all the tc winner's,what was there ....3yr old prep(how many),has any ever won with just 2-preps.

14 Jan 2011 11:32 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

ryanm

  Thanks for the headsup on that MSW race at GP, 1-15, 5th race. Looks like there could be some talent in there. It could be one of the top three key 3yo Derby Trail races of the day along with the 7th at OP and the 3rd at SA.

14 Jan 2011 11:35 PM
RJPPDP

I never have understood this problem of having field sizes so small. Every time I hear owners speak of horse racing, they speak about the Kentucky Derby. If you have a three year old who you think might have a shot at the derby. Why not run him. Wouldn't you rather run against Uncle Mo in his first start on a track that he has never raced on before than at Churchill after 2 easy preps and a win at the twin spires. Please take some chances people. It is almost as embarassing as 5 going to post in the sham. Is Uncle Sam as scary as Uncle Mo come on. I feel there has to be more than 5 horses that are ready to run.

15 Jan 2011 1:14 AM
jayjay 3233

good point but a mute one i think.first of all, it will be his fist race as a 3year old. the connections of this horse already anticipated that im sure. give him a1mile and a sixteenth first time out on dirt,good weather, and keep his confidence high, come on now its a no brainer. for what its worth thats my opinion

15 Jan 2011 5:33 AM
HoofPrintsandHorsePlay

It doesn't matter where Uncle Mo races his preps - he is still gonna have to catch a BUS to get ten furlongs!

Watch out for Read the Contract Saturday at Tampa and Break up the Game Saturday at Gulfstream.

And don't forget 'the real Uncle' - Uncle Sam in Saturday's Sham stakes.

15 Jan 2011 6:02 AM
trackjack

Jason,

Thanks again for another insightful article.  It's great to watch the jockeying begin with owners and trainers.  My son lives in Tampa, I usually visit in the winter and guess what, I'm visiting that weekend and we're going to the track!  See you there Draynay?

I saw Mo at the Breeders Cup, will see him at T.B. and we're spending Derby week in Louisville and will be at the Oaks and Derby as guests of Churchill Downs for winning last year's roadtotheroses.com contest.  With all the choices trainers have it's setting up to be another handicappers bonanza, of course if they all stay healthy.

John T--great post, you hit the nail on the head.  There are no gaurantees in this game.  Let's see how Mo does first time out.

Go Mo Go!

15 Jan 2011 7:30 AM
Slew

DR D:  It's on my "bucket list" but I don't know how long I can hold out.  33 years is a long drought.  One of the sturdier horses around is Blind Luck, simply because she trains old style.  I still believe the KD field should be pared down to 14. I like Uncle Mo, but am so not ready to hand him a crown...I need to see more.  Last year, every one's buzz horse was Buddy's Saint, but he was ill-fated.  Then came Eskendereya...who didn't make it into the gate.  Sometimes in the Derby it seems you have to bet not on the horse, but on the jockey.  Another question I have is will the other 3 year olds have enough in earnings with only a couple preps.  We could be losing a lot of talent before the Derby because of a lack of preps.

15 Jan 2011 8:27 AM
Trebloc

Jason,

You actually remember an exacta bet that you won from three years ago?  I thought you were won more often then that.  HA!

Draynay,

Since when are we only allowed to dicuss graded stake winners on this blog?  

The bottom line here is that once again Super Charger will foal the KY Derby winner.  How is Brethren not the best bred colt on the Triple Crown trail?

15 Jan 2011 8:43 AM
Rick

perhaps the fields will be filled with horses who have significant earnings already, just taking their shot. this year, there are already a few. Decisive Moment, Gourmet Dinner, Jaycito...etc. not that these are any match, but maybe he'll face more than five or six.

15 Jan 2011 9:02 AM
Zen's Auntie

Dr D. I was thingking along the same lines of your 7:09 comment last night. I wouldnt be the least bit surprized to see a slight injury resulting in pointing at Stud - PRE Kderby.  It seems to go that way a bunch.  

I have been thinking about that for a while. Prompted somewhat by the fact that Esky was still in the mix for top 3 year old colt. Now I do get how talented the horse was but shouldnt you last over half the year to be even considered the best when the likes of LAL are still grinding it out to the BC??

Thinking about how much to prep for the season I see that a racing layoff - (no works yet either)November to March is a risk, but a calculated risk.

Ideally with a super talent like MO in todays kind of schedule what can we expect from a top 3 year old? - 6 or 7 races and the BCC at most.  If we assume TP sticks to the plan, and it all goes fine and hes sound (big ifs I know) he has 5 races behind him in mid June. 2 more before early November and the BCC which would make 8 that is a full (perhaps more than full)  schedule for todays top racehorses.

I am excited about the KOaks being 1 mil. this certainly gives everyone with a quality filly a reason NOT to mess with the KD.

Real Ladies dont shop Black Friday at Walmart, LOL Dr D I like that analogy.

15 Jan 2011 9:52 AM
Pedigree Ann

The Kentucky Derby wasn't the top 3yo race in 1920; the Belmont was. The Kentucky Derby in those days was like the Wood Memorial or Florida Derby today - a good race to win, but a prep for the top race. The Preakness was the Maryland prep. Relative importance of races change over time, you know. In Man o' War's day, the Futurity at Belmont was the most important 2yo race and had a purse bigger than any other race on the calendar; mares in foal were nominated and there were several stages of fees to keep the resultant foals eligible for the race two years after their birth.

15 Jan 2011 10:37 AM
Zen's Auntie

Oh Yeah, and how bout the feel good story of the week yesterdays return of Square Eddie.  

I was listening to it and "working" (no snide comments) and heard it was a new TR and went back and watched it again and yes, it brought tears to my eyes. So cool.

I love the chart - "... quickly accelerated away and established track record under late left hand tap before being geared down in the final yards."  

Tasty Indeed, plus the whole comeback angle ya GOTTA love that.  

After reading the story today, I see he was not that good of a sire? how can you know really? he is 5 right?  I'll take one of his little critters - if they have as much versatility as dad (and w Smart Strike as his Grandpa) how bad could they be?  Or are they saying he had a low conception rate?  

In any event, he will be one I root for in this years older horse stakes.  

Speaking of rooting I need a new pick after the abdication of Sidney’s Candy (gee whiz I do hope he’s going to be ok) - what do you all think? thiskyhasnolimit or what?

I’m reluctantly of the opinion that its Tapizar over Uncle Sam even though I'd like it better if Uncle Sam won.  

15 Jan 2011 10:58 AM
Trebloc

Santa Anita is playing just to dam fast....

15 Jan 2011 11:11 AM
mickey 1957

watch the 2004 belmont stakes,one of the greatest,example's of trainer's/jockey's making sure a horse don't win,they ran at smarty jone's in wave's,first a couple of front runner's,then rock hard ten,all the while keeping sj parked outside thourgh a very rapid mile,then came birdstone....smarty jones was the best horse in the field by far,would have beatin birdstone 9 out of 10 race's,hard to over come entire fields set up for the sole purpose of beating one horse,they will do the same to (mo)at some point....enter rabbit,then second tier runner's,then deep closer's,with just 2-prep's....he's done (toast),if you think baffert...romans...zito...etc,are just going to stand by and watch (mo)stroll,your wrong.

15 Jan 2011 11:32 AM
Coldfacts

Jason,

You have raise some interesting points that I have commented onbelow.

“They are topics worth discussing because the likelihood that a large number of owners and trainers will be chomping at the bit to face Mo is pretty slim”

Why do think owners and trainers in this modern era of thoroughbred racing regards any horse as three headed monster to be feared? No one avoided the unbeaten Barbaro, War Pass and Smarty Jones as 3YOS. When Street Sense destroyed the BCJ field that included Todd Pletcher’s Circular Quay, was he to be feared as a 3YO? Mr. Pletcher could have given SS the three headed monster status and avoided him. Instead of avoiding Street Sense he prepared his talented colt Any Given Saturday to take down the BCJ winner. AGS did not win but he proved that in spite of SS 13 lengths BCJ victory, he was no world beater. I refuse to believe that owners who spend hundreds of thousands of dollars would in conjunction with trainers decide to hide from cetin horses. Secretariat took down the Champion 2YO and HOY awards prior to his 3YO season. The owners of Sham, Angle Light and the five other horses that contested the 1973 Wood could have stayed at home give Big Red a walk over. They did not and the great horse finished a struggling third.   The former NY Jets coach Herm Edwards is known for the statement “You play the game to win”  I am of the opinion that trainer are required to prepare their charges to win and accept the outcome of races.  Their jobs are not hide well bred talented horses in a sport of glorious uncertainty

“How enticed would you be to show up in Tampa on March 12 to face a colt that is probably far superior to yours? And do you want to take the chance to find out when it would be just as easy to ship to Gulfstream, Oaklawn, or Fair Grounds to face more unproven challengers”

I am happy you used the term “probably” Let me see if I understand. The better option is to go to Gulfstream to take on the number 2 & 3 ranked colts To Honor and Serve and BAT who Uncle Mo will deliberately avoid by going to Tama Bay. Interesting!

Uncle Mo is regarded by many of your supporters as Secretariat II.  If this colt is so exceptional, why is he being pointed to the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby as opposed to the $750,000 or $1M Florida Derby? He could easily make his seasonal debut in the Sam Davis and the tackle the 9F of the FL Derby. However, his connections have opted to avoid To Honor and Serve and BA. They are also adamant that they are not prepared to start this world beater at 9F in his return race. Are they seriously talking about Uncle Mo a colt who is suppose to be 20 lengths better than every other 3YO?

Your blog is titled  “Will Uncle Mo be Derby Tested” There would been need for this question if the connections of this colt didn’t choose to avoid the #2 & #3 ranked colts in the FOY and FL Derby.

Do you believe Mr. Dutrow and Mr. Mott would change their plans if Uncle Mo was being pointed to the FOY and FL Derby?

15 Jan 2011 12:59 PM
Mike Relva

I believe Big Drama and Blind Luck will prevail.

15 Jan 2011 1:16 PM
Jason Shandler

Coldfacts: They are not avoiding the Florida Derby. The owner is from NY and wants to win the Wood; he has said that since last year. Why would they avoid BAT? They already smoked him by 5. That is nonsense.

15 Jan 2011 1:20 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

mickey 1957

  Please don't get me started on the 2004 Belmont. I might not survive the aggravation.

Zen's Auntie

    Spring has sprung. Today starts the Triple Crown trail so from now on it's Spring regardless of the weather or official dates. As far as I know, I've never known anyone that has shopped Walmart on Black Friday. I think they must be ordered into battle by some underground shopping fanatic Generals.

trebloc

   I definitely agree. They need to slow it down a little. Maybe throw some more sand on it or something.

Slew

   We have an agreement so eat your veggies.

15 Jan 2011 1:59 PM
-Keelerman

Mickey 1957;

Here is a list of all the Triple Crown winners, followed by the number of prep races they had in the spring of their three-year-old season.

Sir Barton - 0

Gallant Fox - 1

Omaha - 2

War Admiral - 2

Whirlaway - 7

Count Fleet - 2

Assault - 3

Citation - 7

Secretariat - 3

Seattle Slew - 3

Affirmed - 4

Gallant Fox's number of preps is a bit deceiving. His first race at three was the Wood Memorial, which he won impressively. His second start was the Preakness Stakes, which at that time was run before the Kentucky Derby. His third start was the Kentucky Derby.

Now, here is a list of the Triple Crown winners followed by the name of their final prep race prior to the Kentucky Derby. (Or Preakness, in the case of Gallant Fox.)

Sir Barton - 3rd Futurity Stakes (As a 2yo)

Gallant Fox - 1st Wood Memorial

Omaha - 3rd Wood Memorial

War Admiral - 1st Chesapeake Stakes

Whirlaway - 2nd Derby Trial (He also finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes)

Count Fleet - 1st Wood Memorial

Assault - 4th Derby Trial (He had previously won the Wood Memorial)

Citation - 1st Derby Trial

Secretariat - 3rd Wood Memorial

Seattle Slew - 1st Wood Memorial

Affirmed - 1st Hollywood Derby (Back when it was on dirt. He also won the Santa Anita Derby.)

-Keelerman

15 Jan 2011 2:38 PM
-Keelerman

HoofPrintsandHorsePlay;

You were right about Break Up the Game. He ran fourth, but it was a close fourth, and I really liked the way that he kept inching closer throughout the stretch depsite being seemingly without a chance as they turned for home.

I will be keeping my eye on him from now on.

-Keelerman

15 Jan 2011 3:06 PM
VP

If he stays sound & carries over his 2yr old form his test will come on the 1st Sat in May. Anything can happen in horse racing.

15 Jan 2011 3:32 PM
skyfire

I would prefer three 3 yr old prep races, the first at less than a mile, but Pletcher is a top trainer who knows his horse.  

Tapizar ran a really nice race, and probably will have three preps as a 3 year old.  Congrats to Steve!

15 Jan 2011 5:06 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

What a terrible start for Elite Alex. Did it remind you of his Daddy in the 2005 Preakness? Another athlete in the family.

15 Jan 2011 5:21 PM
brettzky99

Will the classic distance be an issue?  Maybe, but in pointing out the obvious, Mo's damsire, and his bloodline, are more than capable of throwing 10f progeny.  Does this colt have enough of it?  Who knows, but does anyone care to extrapolate, what the winning margin would have been in the Juvenille, if it were run at a mile and an eigth?  Then if it wasn't a hand ride (which is an overstatement). If you at all believe the dosage indices, the pedigree balance actually leans toward stamina.  we'll see.

15 Jan 2011 5:42 PM
Trebloc

Tapizar dusted a bunch of pretenders.  Sounds like he is staying in CA and it will be interesting to see if Gomez stays on him.

I predict Gomez get his first derby winner this year on Brethren.

15 Jan 2011 6:07 PM
ROBINM

I guess I'm "old school" - if you want a horse with the bottom to stand up to a Triple Crown campaign, I think you need more than a couple of starts before the Derby.  If he's as good as he appeared to be in the BCJC, he could have his way in the Derby or his breeding could catch up to him and he'd stop at the 8th pole.  But to have the "bottom" to compete in the TC series, I'd rather see another start; not necessarily a "tough" one, but a start earlier than March.

15 Jan 2011 8:08 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Top 15

1. The Factor

2. Uncle Mo

3. Elite Alex

4. Rogue Romance

5. Beamer

6. Sway Away

7. Tapizar

8. Alternation

9. Clubhouse Ride

10.Break Up The Game

11. Monzon

12. Cook Inlet

13. Sovereign Default

14. Soldat

15. Mountain Town

15 Jan 2011 8:19 PM
stepaheadstables

How about Manicero today in the Pasco? Easy day. Now strectches out for the Sam Davis and a then a date with Mo

15 Jan 2011 8:40 PM
oliver

To Honor and Serve wins the KY Derby and the Preakness, while Coil joins the trail late/fresh and takes the Belmont. Write it down.

15 Jan 2011 9:53 PM
Linda in Texas

Zen's Auntie - Square Eddie did himself proud and i must admit that i got choked up also because i knew i wanted him to win bar anything. And he did. And that was yesterday.

So today i wanted Big Drama, just like him and love to watch him run.

Parading onto the track i knew he was going to win. And he did, too.

Then two grays won today and i had picked them also rounding off with Tapizar and Isle of Prado.I don't bet but i just might start.

It was an exciting day at the races in my living room. One cat is still under the couch and the dog must be under there with him.

Off to The Races everyone and may your horses win big.

Some really nice horses won today.

What do you all bet Bob Baffert makes a habit of going on vacation on race day? He did all right and wasn't even here.

15 Jan 2011 10:19 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Linda in Texas

  That made me smile. My dog comes flying to find out what all the excitement is about. Looking for an intruder or something probably. Zenyatta drove him nuts.

16 Jan 2011 12:36 AM
jayjay

The only test UM needs is whether he can carry his talent to his 3 yr old season.  Let's see him dust some unknowns in TBD and watch the way he dusts them.  And even if he does that, it still wouldn't prove anything, just like what Jason said, it wouldn't be a true test if he runs against unknowns in his 2 preps.  He should win that race by 20 lengths if he is suppose to be "vastly superior" against this years 3yo crop as some of you claim, anything less than that is unacceptable hehe.  Right now, I'm leaning towards Mott's horse and Jaycito, the two I believe are true distance horses.  Jaycito finally back on track, 37.40 at SA 3 days ago, not a bad workout at all.  The other one that intrigues me is Biondetti, I'm not sure if they're pointing him to US races or Dubai.

Draynay : May is far far away, anyone who declares UM the KD winner is someone who would declare "QR is the HOTY" back in August of last year...oh wait, you did that.

Remember LAL last year ? He was the best 3 yr old going in to the Derby, he probably still is but talent alone doesn't win you the Derby.  What do you think Uncle Mo's chances of winning the Derby if he gets the 1 hole ?  or if it rains ?  He's not tested in the mud, he hasn't been challenged yet, will he fold if a legit contender looks him in the eye and say "let's see what you got" ?  And no, BAT (the first horse you picked that you have since abandoned) isn't a legit contender for the Derby.

This time of the year, the only bet is who can guess how many times you will switch horses. LOL

16 Jan 2011 3:11 AM
Joe P.

Always have Breeders cup fever. Starting to get KY derby fever. Just saw the video of Tapizar's win in the Sham. We know he likes Churchill Downs. Can't wait to see 2011 Debuts for Uncle Mo, Boys @ T, To Honor and Serve, The Factor, Dialed in, Emminent Tail, Brethren. These are the horses on my KY derby 2011 trail. good luck to all.

16 Jan 2011 8:28 AM
Chris

Uncle Mo better sprout wings come derby day because Shug looks like he has a real dangerous one in Break up the Game.This horse in his second start almost nailed the comp again gaining rapidly in the loss. With his breeding,anything is possible.Yet another Bernardini doing well.

16 Jan 2011 8:36 AM
2:24

Dr. D - what happened in Elite Alex's race? I didn't see it.

16 Jan 2011 9:40 AM
horselover

I think derby talk this early is so funny, because this happened last year, and predictions changed so drastically all the way up to the derby, that Uncle Mo (who I like very much) may not even be a factor.  It will be some colt that nobody is even talking about at this point.  

16 Jan 2011 10:59 AM
Pedigree Ann

I, too, came up on 'old-style' trained horses, who raced more, lasted longer, and didn't duck competition. Old-style New York horses would either winter in Florida and race some or train in Aiken for the NY opening in March. Then there was a series of 4 races for classic candidates, one every two weeks - the Swift at 6f, the Bay Shore at 7f, the Gotham at 8f, and the Wood Memorial at 9f - ending 2 weeks before the Derby. (When the Spring belonged to a track called Jamaica, some of these races had different names.) Every winter/spring racing track had its own series of similar races and, since trainers didn't insist that a horse had to win every race, the fields were decent-sized, too.

Many trainers today had forgotten how to use races for conditioning. Nowadays, every stakes race is like coming off of a layoff, and the horse never reaches peak condition. Oddly enough, if you look at lower level, below the elite horses, at state-bred stakes horse, and claimers, you still find horses who run 12-14-16 times a year. They may not be as talented as the elite horses, but they are fitter.

16 Jan 2011 11:08 AM
Bloodline Bob

As of 1-16-11,there are 5 bloodlines I'm interested in for the 2011 Ky.Derby and they are: SPEIGHTSTOWN,ORIENTATE,SONGANDAPRAYER,E DUBAI and STREET CRY.This just an ongoing experiment I'm doing with the Ky.Derby.  

16 Jan 2011 11:33 AM
Better Man

Bloodline Bob, Speightstown,Orientate,Songandaprayer and E Dubai will never sire a Ky Derby winner.Never! And neither will Indian Charlie or his son Bwana Charlie,trust me on that!

16 Jan 2011 12:20 PM
Pam S.

Of all the Derby "conventional wisdoms," the one that is biting the dust the fastest seems to be the one about needing three starts as a 3yo.  I read somewhere that all the Derby winners in the past five or six years had only two, except Barbaro who ran in a turf stakes on Jan. 1, 2006.  So that's how it's done these days.

As far as Uncle Mo, it does seem likely he won't be tested much until May.  I think the TB Derby is definitely the time to take a shot at Uncle Mo if a trainer is so inclined, so the field might not be that small, but probably won't have any other "stars."  If Mo wins like we all expect, I do think the Wood field will be pretty small.  

Uncle Mo is super-impressive, but so was Esky last year, and other promising colts you could name.  I really hope this one does make it to the gate on the first Sat. in May so we don't have to call him "Uncle No Mo."

16 Jan 2011 12:23 PM
Footlick

Nice race by Tapizar.  Call Now was one of my favorites, so nice to see her in a pedigree.  I still won't give up on Clubhouse Ride.  At least he ran second in a solid race.  Wish I knew how the Santa Anita form will hold up elsewhere.  It is just playing so fast and speed deems at a huge advantage.  Not stranbge for Cal dirt tracks though.  At least both of these horses have run at other tracks.

16 Jan 2011 12:34 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bloodline Bob

    That's some experiment. Be careful that you don't blow up the lab !!! How about this name for a Derby horse- Make It Roses, in the Smarty Jones Stakes at OP on Monday. I like his pedigree too.

Pedigree Ann

   I think they are blowing it for a run at the Triple Crown with Uncle Mo. I was thinking he had a chance at it until I heard their schedule plans. With a healthy horse of that caliber I would want a well conditioned horse to take a shot at winning all three races. Well conditioned is a lot more important than relatively fresh. They might prove me wrong but it sure isn't the way I would go.

2:24

  He stumbled badly out of the gate and was way behind the field. He caught up to battle with Alternation and lost by a head. It took quite an effort to stay up out of the gate it seemed to me.

horselover

  Yeah it's dumb but fun. Kind of like getting drunk and playing football or even softball. I always say I'm going to wait and then I can't.

16 Jan 2011 12:51 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

In your post 15 Jan 2011, 12:59pm you suggested that Uncle Mo's connection are ducking THS and BAT by planning to prep in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial.  Once again your comparatively low estimation of "Mo" is revealed and I for one will be happy to remind you of these absurd remarks when the races begin.  Comments like those have no basis whatsoever on facts.  You are making a mockery of your moniker my friend.  Its time to get back to the cold facts.  I'm pretty sure that the connections of those two rival colts would be going elswhere had Mo's path to the Derby been ploted via the FOY and Florida Derby, based upon the cold facts of beyer speed figures and dominating performances turned in by Uncle Mo(Bill Mott and Rick Dutrow must be chuckling to themselves at your remarks).  Come on Coldfacts, give us some solid reasons for your opinion thats not arbitrary mumble jumble.    

16 Jan 2011 1:05 PM
Karen in Texas

No matter how talented and accomplished Uncle Mo is at this point, I don't think he will be Derby-tested without adding another prep to his schedule--preferably one with a large field of entrants.

Tapizar looked promising yesterday, as did Alternation and Elite Alex. Alex made up a lot of ground after that odd jumping/rearing incident at the start.

Does anyone know where Rogue Romance is scheduled to start next?

16 Jan 2011 1:28 PM
Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND.

You guys crack me up.  You have no idea what you are talking about. There is NOTHING in Uncle Mo's breeding that says he can't go 1 1/4. His talent says all it needs to say and I can't believe many of you STILL can't see it.  What do you need a map?  I was at Tampa Bay Downs yesterday in the beautiful sunshine making my reservations for March 11th.  Me and my party will be in box 74 stop by and say hello.  Speed was loving the track yesterday if it is anything like that in March Mo wins by 6 or more.

16 Jan 2011 2:07 PM
afleetalexforever

Well for anyone that feels anyone is ducking a horse that was 5 lengths behind Uncle Mo in the Juvi, Here is what Dutrow said in an interview about facing Mo.

"He ran away from us, no doubt about it," Dutrow said of Uncle Mo, who will not run in the Holy Bull and will probably go in the Wood Memorial for his final prep. "We'll hopefully take another shot at him (in the Derby), but it's not like we want to run against him now."

16 Jan 2011 2:48 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I love football in inclement weather. Snowstorm, driving rain. You can't beat it. Too bad they ruined the Super Bowl so that it has to be indoors or in good weather. Da Seahawks forgot their snow cleats and have their minds on going home to a warm bed so far. Da Bears love this weather. It seperates da bears from da beach birds. The next game would be a gigantic upset if the Jets win. I suspect they're going to get punished unmercifully.

16 Jan 2011 2:57 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Do we have a bet?

16 Jan 2011 3:08 PM
spacapper

the best horses in the u.s. are going to race at oaklawn. love uncle mo but there will be a horse come out of the arkansas derby and win at least 1 leg of the crown

16 Jan 2011 3:56 PM
RJPPDP

I am not worried about the number of preps a horse has prior to the derby. If Uncle Mo has 2 preps and wins them both. Lets just say Tapizar win Robert B Lewis and Santa Anita Derby and comes in with three prep wins. To Honor and Serve win both of his preps. Machen win the Louisana series.Who would you select? I would love to see this buts odds are it won't.

16 Jan 2011 4:51 PM
RJPPDP

Did anyone see race 8 on Jan 21st at Glfstream. I think it is loaded.

Financial Empire

Dialed In

Soldat

Cool Blue Red Hot

Beamer

Lauburu

Halo's Thunder

Mas Trueno

@ 1 1/8. I wish this was a graded stakes race!

16 Jan 2011 5:00 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY,aka TAKE QR TO THE BANK

You're ignoring my question. If you are that sure  Uncle Mo will win Kentucky Derby,take me up on my bet.

16 Jan 2011 5:00 PM
ALGAJA

I am still questioning the ability of Uncle Mo to get the distances of the big derby preps. I still see him as more of a sprinter or a miler. For the triple crown races I am really looking at Jaycito he is truly bred to get the distances.

16 Jan 2011 5:04 PM
LAZMANNICK

So Draynay

How long will it be before you switch to Tapizar?  Are you going to switch now or wait until March?  Either way, I'm willing to bet that when they run the Derby you won't be blabbing about Uncle Moe.

16 Jan 2011 5:19 PM
2:24

Draynay - I will very much look forward to meeting you at The Tampa Bay Derby.  I'll come by Box 74.  I'm kind of hard to miss as I am 6'6", 300 lbs., have long hair and a beard.  See you there.

16 Jan 2011 5:22 PM
longwaytomay

ALGAJA,

 If you think Mo is a sprinter or miler it's obvious to me that you didn't watch the BC Juvi. Tell the truth now, you didn't did you?

16 Jan 2011 5:52 PM
Draynay

No problem Mike save your money and let me know how much money you have come May and I will be more then glad to bet you.  Jaycito ? Are you serious ?  I think Mo beat him by 35 last time they met.  Laughable.

16 Jan 2011 6:05 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

RJPPDP

  It sure is. Wow. Thanks. The 7th is interesting too. I'm going to play the 7th, 8th, and 9th on the 21st. Looks like fun.

16 Jan 2011 6:16 PM
ROBINM

DRAYNAY is a joke, right?  Isn't he/she just a voice out there to make us nuts?

16 Jan 2011 6:36 PM
Ranagulzion

Tapizar was quite impressive in the Sham. He is now ranked #3 on my short list behind Uncle Mo and Santiva.  

Interestingly he is by Tapit, from the Pulpit branch of the AP Indy line. Pulpit was the most precocious son of AP Indy, and having sired other precocious colts previously such as Sky Mesa, Tapit, Corinthian and Ice Box, he has looked like the one most likely to breakthrough in the Derby for his underachieving sire.  Tapit's pedigree combining with the Deputy minister mare Winning Call, brings the very successful Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer inbreeding to AP Indy's assistance in Tapizar.  This could be a good formula for breeders wanting to produce AP Indy line triple crown aspirants.

This colt Tapizar has a high cruising speed and an abundance of class.  He is definitely looking 'Mo-competitive' and ready to expose all the Californian pretenders including The Factor.

16 Jan 2011 7:46 PM
Tom F V

Excuse me Draynay, but didn't you say the same thing about Quality Road and maybe a few others?

There is nothing certain in life except death and taxes. Certainly not a Derby prediction and sure thing nearly 4 months out, particularly when none of them have run a distance of any note. These are fragile and often unpredictable creatures. Haven't most of you heard trainers say: we'll give it a shot, there should be no reason why they can't get the distance, etc then be made to look foolish?

16 Jan 2011 8:28 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

It wasn't money,my earlier post on this page is if your Uncle Mo wins the Kentucky Derby I'll take a three month exile from blogging on Jason's site,if Mo loses you have to do the same. A scratch, injury bet is void. Well?

16 Jan 2011 9:35 PM
Mike Relva

LAZ

By March he will have switched probably twenty times.

16 Jan 2011 9:37 PM
ALGAJA

longroadtomay,

Fillies and Colts by Indian Charlie are not known to be able to get longer distances. Yes I did watch the BC Juvi. Did you notice what horse took the longest to pull up? A 1 1/16 may very well be the longest he can be affective.

16 Jan 2011 9:42 PM
longwaytomay

ALGAJA,

 Are you saying that it looked like Mo couldn't have handled another hundred yards? Did he look tired to you? He sure didn't look tired to me. What does the hardest horse to pull up mean? I have seen enough horses outrun their pedigree over the last few years to make me think twice about tossing a horse based on pedigree alone. He might be iffy at 1 1/4, but he already showed me he can go 1 1/8. JMHO

16 Jan 2011 10:16 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike

Draynay seems to be going to quite an expense, travelling I assume to Tampa, probably renting a luxurious sweet, eating lavish food and drinking expensive wine and having limo service back and forth to the track, and all this to bet a horse that will pay $2.10 to win.

16 Jan 2011 10:30 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Those are great games next Sunday. The Jetsons can't win again can they? I don't see any possibility of 9f being a problem for Uncle Mo. I don't think that 10f will be either. 12f is always an unknown, and 10f is for many of them. I just don't think they are preparing Mo enough for the rigors of a run at a Triple Crown if he does happen to win The Derby. Of course they still have time to change their mind and add a prep and go to one that will be tougher than The Wood for the final prep.  With Mo's kind of talent I don't know why they'd be happy with just a Derby win. I'd be focused on The Triple Crown and I don't see how the two races they have planned for him sets him up for that. Mo is the most talented 2yo I remember seeing. I don't think I saw Secretariat, Ruffian, or Seattle Slew as two year olds. Just as 3yos.

16 Jan 2011 10:47 PM
Trebloc

Well, my Pats choked! But on a positive note, I picked the Pats last year and they choked against the Ravens but my pick Super Saver won the Derby!  Go Brethren!!!

Neumy is not just awesome working for NBC but he's great on the radio!

16 Jan 2011 10:54 PM
GunBow

Frustratingly, I was not at Santa Anita on Saturday.  In retorspect, I guess it wasn't such a big loss to miss sub-par runnings of the San Fernando and Santa Ynez.  But I did miss Tapizar, and that was the horse I really wanted to see.

With Uncle Sam looking quite pedestrian, it's legit to question what was behind Tapizar in the Sham.  However, he definitely did it the right way, and one had to be impressed with how smooth of a stride he has, and how he had his ears pricked most of the way.  He has the look of a serious horse, and I hope to see him in person for his next start.

In addition to the quality of the horses behind Tapizar, another reason to temper one's enthusiasm about his performance is that his front-running style has been strongly advantaged by the current Santa Anita dirt surface.  Santa Anita has gone from a Pro-Ride synthetic surface in which horses hardly ever won on the lead around two turns to a dirt surface over which it is almost impossible for late-runners to win around two-turns.  

I had been looking forward to the El Encino as a test of how fair the new dirt surface is.  Blind Luck, the little late-running mare, is a model of consistency and has fired bullets over every track she has run.  I didn't feel that Blind Luck needed to win to show that the track was fair, given my respect for the horses she was facing, but I thought that if the track was fair she would make a menacing run that would give her a solid shot in the final sixteenth.

Well, in the El Encino, Blind Luck was able to run 2nd, but it was the largest margin of defeat in her outstanding career, and she was never really a threat to Always a Princess.  Blind Luck lost facing glacial paces in the Santa Anita Oaks and Hollywood Oaks(with 6f splits of 113 and 4 and 114 and 2 respectively), so one would have thought that she would have eaten up the speed horses in the El Encino given the pace of 108 and 3 was a contested one, with Champagne d' Oro and Always a Princess locked in a duel for the first mile.  Yet, on this Santa Anita dirt surface, frontrunners are breezing through fractions like this and just not stopping.  

Not only did Always a Princess beat Blind Luck by almost twice the margin Unrivaled Belle beat her in the BC Ladies Classic, but Blind Luck barely finished ahead of a badly tiring Champagne d' Oro.  Now, maybe Blind Luck is simply tailing off after a demanding schedule, or maybe as Jerry Hollendorfer said after the race, it was his fault as the trainer.  The thing is, though, that what happened in the El Encino has been happening everyday, speed horses going out and setting blazing paces and lasting, while deep closers flounder.

I am not at all surprised to see that track officials are heading back to drawing board on Tuesday, with the plan to put more sand in the track.  In addition to any bias, the surface has produced times that almost make a mockery of established marks.  Just today, two young 3 year olds making their debuts, the winner a Baffert named Da Ruler and the runnerup an Asmussen named Albergatti, sped through 6 furlongs in 107 and 4 on their way to 6.5 furlongs in 114 and 2.  This is just too fast.  When horses approach 108 or go below it, they should be champion sprinters(Big Drama) earning a 119 Beyer, not debut 3 year olds.  Can't Santa Anita find a happy medium?

16 Jan 2011 11:35 PM
Draynay

Tapizar looks Mo ready? You can't be serious.  Tapizar beat a horse by 4 lengths that hasn't won ANYTHING.  I know you guys want a California horse to cheer but you need to face facts.  You don't have one.

16 Jan 2011 11:43 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- Santa Anita has been very kind to front runners.  Do not anoint Tapizar quite yet.  And there still is the question of 10 furlongs in May on a deeper track than the Santa Anita freeway.  I agree his race was a great race.  But writing off all of the other West Coast horses may be a little premature.  Clubhouse Ride had the thankless job of trying to come from behind on that track.  Given his breeding he may have a better chance at 10 furlongs in May, although I really see him on the turf given his bloodlines on his dam's side.  Jaycito hasn't started yet and his bloodlines indicate an improvement when 10 furlongs will be tackled also.  Right now I understand your excitement as it was a visually impressive race.  And Call now was one of my favorite fillies.  But she and Olympio do not scream 10 furlongs at me.  At least he does have a stamina point in his DP.

17 Jan 2011 12:20 AM
Footlick

ALGAJA- thank you.  So many people are trying to make a case for him with the Arch/Kris S angle, but the sire angle seems more important to me.  Indian Charlie's may stretch out, but it seems that they are older when they do.  The same with Arch/Kris S.  They seem to be older when they are a stretch out factor also.  I am not a critic of Uncle Mo.  I am not going to anoint him as the next super horse as of yet nor will I say he is certain to get 10 furlongs.  I have seen to many dominant two year olds not be dominant three year olds to automatically give him the Derby.

17 Jan 2011 12:25 AM
Bellwether

WE HAVE HERD IT ALL BEE FORE...LET THE CHIPS FALL BABY!!!...NOE PUN END-TENDED...ty...

17 Jan 2011 5:12 AM
Inquiry

HEY DR DRUNKINBUM?...............you left off the Kentucky derby winner buddy........friday race#9 at gulfstream I think he's the 2.....DIALED IN.....gulfstream isn't kind to closers but this horse is gonna be a star.

17 Jan 2011 8:20 AM
JerseyBoy

About Indian Charlie:

Fleet Indian by Indian Charlie  won Personal Ensign H.-G1, Beldame S.-G1, Delaware H.-G2. Not much problem with stamina there.

Pampered Princess by Indian Charlie won Spinster S. (Gr1) Banshee Breeze S. (GP,9F), Stage Door Betty H. (CRC,8.5F); was 2nd Sabin H. (G3,9F); was 3rd Rampart H. (G2,9F.

Two Trail Sioux by Indian Charlie was 1st S.Oak. 1st Fleur de Lis H. (G2); 2nd Delaware H. (G2); 3rd Personal Ensign S.(G1

About America's best sire:

I Want Revenge, paternal grandsire AP Indy:

At 2 he was 2nd CashCall Futurity (G1,Hol,8.5f)

At 3 he won Wood Memorial S. (G1,Aqu,9F), Gotham S.(G3,Aqu,8.5f);was 3rd Robert B. Lewis S. (G2,SA,8.5f)

He was the Ky Derby favorite but had to be scratched because of an injury. He must for been pretty precocious.

Regarding Uncle Mo:

I wonder why a horse that did not need a prep to blow away the field in his first three starts would need one for starts 4,5 or 6. And what ever happened to the belief that a horse reaches its peak in the third start following a layoff, a blelief borne out by recent derbies?.

17 Jan 2011 8:42 AM
Billy's Empire

Tapizar ran faster than both Indian Firewater and Always A Princess, who both won stakes races at Santa Anita over the weekend at 1 1/16 miles. Tapizar ran 140.38, Indian Firewater was 141.5 and Alwasys was 141.4. Tapizar also ran a full second faster than Santiva on the Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill. Will be interesting to see him race The Factor.

I was disappointed in Uncle Sam's race, although I thought he would bounce coming out of his maiden race, and he did. I hope to see him improve in his next.  

17 Jan 2011 9:01 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

“Tapit has looked like the one most likely to breakthrough in the Derby for his underachieving sire”

Why do you persist with this notion that A P Indy is an under achiever? I have presented cold facts to rebut this conclusion but clearly you believe opinions supersede facts.

Now let’s get to Tapit. He is most likely to breakthrough in the Derby from the A P Indy sire line. Well, have you heard of Mineshaft? May be not! You must have heard of his son Fly Down. ( 1st Dwyer S. G2, Bel,9F, 2nd Belmont S. G1,12F, Travers S. G1, Sar,10F). Against older horses he was 3rd Breeders' Cup Classic (G1,CD,10F), Jockey Club Gold Cup H. (G1,Bel,10F). Can you list any Tapit horse whose achievements as a 3YO comes close to that of the 2003 HOY colt?

If my recollection is correct, Tapit retired due to persistent lameness. First crop sire Bernardini was retired sound as a bell and has sired horses that have won here and abroad. In spite of Tapizar’s impressive Sham victory the #2 colt in the land remains To Honor and Serve sired by the other A P Indy son who was voted

Co-World Champion 3-Year-Old (2006)

“He is definitely looking 'Mo-competitive' and ready to expose all the Californian pretenders including The Factor”

Do you realize that the colt that came second in the Sham is the beatings stick for all the top 3YOs he has faced? Let’s replace Clubhouse Ride with Thirtyfirststreet.  Do you believe if Thirtyfirststreet came to the top of the stretch within a length or two of Tapizar he would flatten out like Clubhouse Ride? I hope these two colts meet in the Bob Lewis as Dough O’Neil’s barn is very hot right now and I think he has a major derby contender barring injuries.

On the subject of Uncle Mo and the prep course chosen by his connections; the blogger suggested that owners and trainers would avoid starting quality horses against him and this would result in him not being battle tested. I regard this as a reasonable assumption. However, the connections had the option to open his 3YO campaign against top class competition at Gulfstream and they choose otherwise. The blogger cannot have both side of the argument. You cannot in one instance say Uncle Mo will be avoided and ignore the fact that his connection have chosen the path of least competition. Would they put him on a plane to CA to meet the top colts out there? No! Would the trainers in CA put their top charges on a plane to Tampa bay to start in a $350,000 race against Uncle Mo? No! Is it to be assumed that they are avoiding him? The connections of horses on the derby trail are all at liberty to chart the best courses to secure the graded earning necessary to get there. Being battle tests is not one of the criteria. Curlin won a maiden race and then overwhelmed the opposition in the Arkansas Derby (G2,9F), Rebel S. (G3,8.5F) He finished 3rd in the derby. His loss was not due to not being battle tested. He encountered lot of traffic problems in a 20 horses field.

In spite of the reasonableness of the avoidance assumption, the past greats were never avoided. The connections of monster Secretariat choose the Wood Memorial as one of his derby preps. He finished a laboring third. If Secretariat was not avoided, why should Uncle Mo be?

17 Jan 2011 10:11 AM
Inquiry

If i were a horse owner or trainer i would do whatever it takes to get the graded money to get me in the Derby. If it means not going against Uncle Mo then so be it.

17 Jan 2011 10:49 AM
Footlick

Jersey Boy- wasn't Fleet Indian an older horse when she won at 10 furlongs?  As far as I know, and I may be wrong, Indian Charlie has never sired a 3 yr old who could get 10 furlongs.  Maybe this will be the one, but as of yet he has not proved to be a source of stamina.

17 Jan 2011 10:49 AM
Billy's Empire

Go back and watch Tapizar break his maiden at CD in November. He rated second the entire race on the outside, ran 6f in 113 and 4, and then exploded turning for home to win by more than 10, eased in the last 100 yards. He has a smooth, efficient stride, a high cruising speed, and a nice kick.

17 Jan 2011 11:06 AM
Ranagulzion

DRAYNAY, FOOTLICK & COLDFACTS,

Tapizar impressed me because it is on the second successive occassion that he has registered a comparitively faster running time than the feature race on the program.  This colt is no flash-in-the-pan or one-hit-wonder.  He is the real deal and trainer Steve Asmusen will leave no stone unturned to get him ready for the first Saturday in May.  Also he already has a liking for Churchill Downs so beware of this one.  His sire Tapit has been 'knocking at the door' since his first crop that included special fillies Stardom Bound and Careless Jewel.  Being from the Pulpit branch of AP Indy suggests a greater chance of throwing Derby ready offsprings than most other AP Indys.  Coldfacts, in a previous post I did include Mineshaft and Stephen Got Even as other likely branches of AP Indy to throw Derby-ready horses.  Until I see evidence that convinces me that Bernadini's progenies are not the typical AP Indy late developers, I'll continue to toss them from my list.

Here is my Derby Dozen right now:

1)Uncle Mo 2)Santiva 3)Tapizar 4)Mucho Macho Man 5)Sweet Ducky 6)Dialed-In 7)Thirtyfirststreet 8)Jaycito 9)Comma to the Top 10)Decisive Moment 11)Rogue Romance 12)Reprized Halo

17 Jan 2011 11:13 AM
Mike Relva

LAZ

Very good point you made regarding Dray. Guess his lemonade stand  and newspaper route did better than expected. lol

17 Jan 2011 11:24 AM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Todd Pletcher gave the "inferior" Super Saver two preps beginning with the Tampa Bay derby and the strategy proved successful.  Also Carl Naftzer gave Street Sense (one of your favourites) two preps starting with the Tampa Bay derby and that also was a successful Kentucky Derby strategy, so what's your problem with the cold facts Bro?  Uncle Mo ...no no no (that's been your mantra).

BTW I do not regard Thirtyfirststreet or Jaycito as pretenders but I certainly am eager to see them both progress of their last performance.  Clubhouse Ride strikes me as a consistent hardknocking colt that was simply outclassed by Tapizar.  He'll be there to pick up the spoils if any of the others mentioned above put a foot wrong in upcoming Derby preps.

17 Jan 2011 11:28 AM
longwaytomay

Coldfacts,

 Once again you can't admit you are wrong. The connections of Uncle Mo stated way back in Nov. that they would have two preps,one in Fla. Pletcher said he liked TB because it was a good conditioning track. It is a deep and somewhat tiring surface, no? Pletcher then said he liked the date of the Florida Derby but since the owner is from NY, he wanted his horse to run in the Wood. They are not ducking anybody, they announced his schedule three months ago. Stick to the facts pal!!

Gunbow,

 Watched football and racing at

Santa Anita yesterday. The track is ridiculous. Do you know if there have been many injuries since they opened?

17 Jan 2011 11:33 AM
merlinmerry

"I'm kind of hard to miss as I am 6'6", 300 lbs., have long hair and a beard.  See you there.

2:24"

Dad??!!??

17 Jan 2011 11:43 AM
TJLuvsTizs

Jason,

My point was not that I think War Pass and Uncle Mo are the same horse and therefor must be dismissed...  My point was that a horse coming back off of a 5 month layoff to a quarky track like Tampa and a short field would be the best time to test your horse.

The other thing Mo has going against him is that Draynay is all over him!  Talk about an easy 1-20 bet against!

17 Jan 2011 12:11 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Inquiry

   I'll be watching him on Friday. It's admittedly a weak list, certain to go through many changes over the next two months. I know that I've left quite a few off that could win. I will say that so far I am most impressed with Elite Alex, Uncle Mo, and The Factor. Some are on the list because I like their pedigree, and some that probably should be there I haven't even looked at yet. I'll probably leave it up to the prep races now and leave it alone for awhile publicly. I'm probably going to love Dialed In if he keeps closing like that. Plus Zito and a nice pedigree. Leparoux ain't too shabby either. I see your point. Off for 70 days, but only stopped working for a month at the most. I hadn't really looked at him. I like  what I'm seeing now. His first race was great and so are his works. Thanks for opening my eyes. I'll have to see who he can replace if he runs good Friday. He may zoom way up there.

17 Jan 2011 12:15 PM
LAZMANNICK

I wonder if the Jets just gave us an Uncle Moe wakeup call.  There are no sure things as we found out yesterday.

17 Jan 2011 12:51 PM
jayjay

I'm not a big fan of Roman Ruler babies, but Baffert may have yet another derby horse with Da Ruler who broke maiden yesterday.  It was pretty impressive how he came back and pulled away from GoGo's horse after being pressed pretty much all the way.  

If UM wins the TBD as expected, watch for Draynay to crown him the HOTY after the race. LOL

Trainers will put their horse in the easiest race they can find prior to their goal. Just like QR took the easy road last year, UM will take the easy road this year, and less races.  The only difference in my opinion is that these are 3 yr olds, they should get more tested and race more before the derby.  Actually,I just want to see them race more than 3 races in their 3 yr old season, most owners would retire their horse after winning the derby and losing the preakness...that or they get injured.  Long gone are the days when we see horses run past their 4 yr old season.

By the way, Steve Haskin did a great job doing a rating rundown of potential derby starters, he's got a great list of 3 yr olds.  I'm still waiting for news from Mott to see where THS will run, as well as news on Jaycito.  I think these two will be the ones standing tall come May, but there's just too many others we haven't seen yet.

17 Jan 2011 1:03 PM
Draynay

Coldfacts, why would anyone want to take their promising young colt and run them against a horse they KNOW is going to run them into the ground? The key is to get them into the gate for the Derby not to get them whipped in preps on the way to the Derby.  Do you think BAT or To Honor and Serve are going to see Mo before May? No Way.

17 Jan 2011 1:27 PM
Bloodline Bob

DIALED IN is the horse to bet on Friday,Jan. 21,2011@ Gulfstream in the 9th race. I'm wheeling all in the 8th with him. I'll be at Mohegan Sun racebook collecting my winnings.

17 Jan 2011 2:31 PM
Ted from LA

Valet parking at Tampa Bay Downs, $7.00.  Program and tips sheets, $16.  Clubhouse table for 6, $300.  Drinks and cigars, $94.  Winning $4.00 bet on a 1-9 horse... priceless.

17 Jan 2011 2:32 PM
JerseyBoy

I like to keep the facts straight.

Taken from Wikipedia:

"Pulpit was unraced as a two-year-old and did not make his first start until January of his three-year-old year in 1997"

17 Jan 2011 2:52 PM
Matthew W

last two races, today...Santa Anita, #2 is 30-1 in both--I am betting them both, win/show---think pace battles up front will make things more equal for these boxcars--both are closera/both should get tons of pace in front of them....

17 Jan 2011 4:11 PM
Billy's Empire

Jayjay, if you re-read my comments, I mentioned "right now" Uncle Mo is vastly superior to the 3yo crop, as proven by his BCJ score at Churchill.

Also, when you reference Uncle MO beating those fields and it not proving anything, the first thing that came to mind was Zenyatta, not beating anything. Funny how you all have double standards when it comes to Zenyatta.  She can run in the same 5 horse fields 3 years in a row, and only win by a nose, but Mo has to win by 20 legnths. The only 3 yo's I have ever seen win by 20 were Rachel and Secretariat, and yes, I know you were joking, but give me a break man. Good Luck with BLEWTHETURNO!

17 Jan 2011 4:42 PM
Tim

Uncle Mo will win any race he runs in because he is just too damn fast and can run all day. All the people making negative comments seem to not have seen his 3 races. He rates while on the lead and he got pushed by a rabbit in the Champagne but he was still under a hold while going 6 furlongs in 1:10.2. In the Juvenile he showed he didn't need the lead and could really rate while sitting behind Riveting Reason and slow himself down with a half in 47 and change and 6 furlongs in 1:11 and change. As long as he stays healthy their isn't a 3 year old who can show him something he hasn't allready seen. He was working behind horses as a 2 year old and he showed in the Juvenile that he's a good learner. In the Derby he has the advantage of using his speed to get out in front to avoid trouble and placing himself in a good stalking position. War Pass wasn't nearly as fast as Uncle Mo and didn't like to rate so their's no comparison. I don't think he can be compared to any horse because he's one of a kind. So just watch him win and have some fun.

17 Jan 2011 4:45 PM
Billy's Empire

What about this. Dray can pick Mo to win the Derby, Relva can pick To Honor and Serve, or The Factor, (he likes them a lot) and whoever finishes better wins, and the loser is banned for 3 months. That seems a little more fair. If one of the horses does not make it to the gate in May, then the bet is off. Any gambler would realize that the first scenario that Mike wants is a suckers bet.

17 Jan 2011 4:56 PM
Billy's Empire

Jayjay, fixed it for you

"Trainers will put their horse in the easiest race they can find prior to their goal. Just like ZENYATTA took the easy road last year, UM will take the easy road this year, and less races."

 Are you still trying to say QR took the easy road by going to the MET MILE??? Wrong on so many levels.

17 Jan 2011 5:03 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Borel angle is 75% for wins and 100% in the money, the last four Derby's.

17 Jan 2011 5:49 PM
JerseyBoy

Footlick:

The horses I cited did win long as older horses but stamina is inherited at conception. Few horses get the chance to win at 10 furlongs as 3yos in America because there are few such races.

My point is people should not jump to conclusions about horses without checking readily available facts. A stark  example of this is someone saying a colt was his sire's "most precocious" even though the colt never raced as a 2yo. The statement might be true but it is not based on evidence.

Further,one should never forget that the sire is only part of the puzzle. I have never seen anyone comment on the fact that Uncle Mo is inbred to Northern Dancer. I am just being ridiculous but he is.

17 Jan 2011 5:55 PM
Inquiry

After dialed in drills them friday im gonna roll all my winning on him in pool 1 in february...because after he wins the Florida derby his  odds will be low in may :)

17 Jan 2011 6:21 PM
Ranagulzion

Jersey Boy,

AP Indy may be America's best sire of stakes horses but he's been a dud when it comes to Triple crown races, in particular the Kentucky Derby.

You are very pround of the precocious I Want Revenge (son of Stephe Got Even) but you conveniently forgot the well beaten post-time Derby favourite Friesan Fire (another precocious AP Indy flop).

You're correct, Pulpit didn't race as a 2YO but he was AP Indy's best ever Derby prospect that entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs.  That is comparitively quite precocious for an AP Indy offspring IMO and he (Pulpit) has been the most consistent son to throw colts capable of being serious Derby challengers.

17 Jan 2011 6:31 PM
Draynay

Ranagulzion, it is hard to take your top 10 list seriously when it does not include To Honor and Serve or BAT.  BAT finished ahead of Jaycito by a country mile last time they met. Remember the winner of the Santa Anita Derby really doesn't matter.  The winner has done nothing for the last 20 years and is a automatic toss for me every year.

17 Jan 2011 6:52 PM
Footlick

Tim- I have nothing against Uncle Mo.  He is a very impressive horse.  I'm just not anointing him the second coming of Hindoo yet.  A horse can look very dominant at two and not be as dominant at three.  A horse can look like he will run all day and then come up short when the race is actually run.   We do not know if he will get 10 furlongs until he tries it, which won't be before the Derby.  Indian Charlie's do not tend to want to go 10 furlongs in May.  He could be the exception.  He is running in two preps.  I saw his races.  He is very impressive.  So was Silent Screen.  But Silent Screen didn't progress.  I just want to wait and see before I call him the greatest, or the fastest, etc.  Whether he was faster than War Pass doesn't really prove anything as War Pass was one dimensional.  But War Pass has the fastest Beyer figure of the two.  He also has the fastest thoro-graph figure of the two.  Midnight Lute and Curlin ran faster TG figures than War Pass on that BC day.  I believe they were the only two horses who did.   He ran faster than every other horse in the BC at Monmouth.  Quite a feat for a two year old.   Monmouth has always been a wicked track for front runners, but even so for a two year old to put up that figure against all other figures is huge.  Maybe why he went wrong as a three year old?  Anyway, I didn't mean to defend War Pass, but people might as well know how fast his race at Monmouth really was.  If my opinion of wait and see isn't doing Uncle Mo justice, then I guess I'm not.

.

17 Jan 2011 7:25 PM
Footlick

Billy- I like Tapizar.  I also like Mr Hollendorfer's comment about the Santa Anita track.  Horses who close have no chance.  Ranagulzion is right about Clubhouse Ride.  He is a hard knocking colt who will eventually put it all together, or will run his race when others don't.  But he had no chance on that track.  He may have had no chance anyway, but especially at Santa Anita.  I know Tapizar has a win at Churchill and that is good.  His last two races have been impressive.

17 Jan 2011 7:31 PM
mickey 1957

ranagulzion:you are correct with the 2-prep's for super saver and street sense.....I bet ss in the derby,then jumped ship....2-prep's might win the derby,but not the triple crown, winning the tc off of 5-lifetime start's with 3 or 4 month's down time....not on my money.

17 Jan 2011 7:54 PM
jayjay

Billy Billy Billy :  Typical of you to bring back Zenyatta to the mix. What's the difference with you saying "right now" or in May ??  UM has not beaten anyone noteworthy.  Jason spelled it out for all of us, unless he runs against some of the top contenders, it's a guess how he'll fare in the Derby.  Would you bet the farm on him now to win the Derby ?  I'll say it again, it takes more than talent to win the Derby, you need luck too.  My point is that some people crowns him like he already won the KD.  There are so many things that can happen, he may not even be the same 2 yr old we saw last year.  Like I said, let's wait and see him dust the TDB field and see how he dusts them.  There's still a huge question on whether he can go 10F, not to mention the luck he'll need with the post position and as Slew said "the bumper car rodeo" that is known as the Kentucky Derby.  He could be a freak and destroys the Derby field but I'm willing to bet against him and hopefully win big.

It's nothing personal against UM, it's just gambling where we all want to beat the favorite to make some money although in my case, the exception is Zenyatta.  I've always said I'm a longshot player, I lose a lot playing against the favorites but when I get lucky, I get really lucky.  And yes, I'll play Jaycito all year long and then some.  I think he'll prove he is a ONE TIME blewtheturno hehe.  Good luck with Uncle Moe!

17 Jan 2011 7:56 PM
2:24

Merlinmerry - let's hope not.

Billy - I agree with many of your points on this blog.  Add in Point Given who damn near won the Belmont by that far as a three year old.

Ted - awesome stuff.  Don't know that anything at Tampa Bay Downs cost $300 though.

17 Jan 2011 8:28 PM
Ranagulzion

Very happy for the connections of Big Drama in winning the Eclipse award for champion sprinter 2010.  This horse is very popular and it is good to see him start his 5YO season with a bang.  I'd love to see him go for the Carter and the Met Mile later this year.

His half brother Little Drama should also make some noise in the 3YO sprints.

17 Jan 2011 9:02 PM
Coldfacts

Draynay

I am desperately trying to understand the concept of avoiding an impressive champion 2YO in 3YO derby prep. To help me understand I would appreciate you advising which past ultra impressive 2YO was avoided as a 3YO. Secretariat must have been the most impressive US based 2YO in the last 37 years. Was he avoided in the Wood? Am I to assume that Sham was not a promising young colt? BAT only got beat 5L. What makes anyone think he cannot make up this deficit with improvement?

The Factor recorded a NTR in his second start. Are any of the CA trainers afraid he will run their promising colts into the ground consequently they are shipping out of CA? Uncle Mo is an impressive colt but he is beatable and I think he will be beaten before the derby.

17 Jan 2011 9:11 PM
The Bid

For Jas..You said in another blog that you wanted more picks( I also said Mo was headed to TBD before it was confirmed not a PRO but just saying!!LOL) I'll give EVERYONE a Freebie Double....Mo in the Derby...and on Friday in The Oaks: TURBULENT DESCENT...There IT is...Jason I'm far from a PRO but do your homework on this Fillie and you may change your mind about whether I can Handicap or not...I watch your show and THIS DOUBLE should also be YOURS...You're welcome ALL and JS!!!!$$$$$$$$$$

17 Jan 2011 9:25 PM
Coldfacts

Longwaytomay,

I have no need to admit I am wrong. The point I was making is grossly misunderstood. Uncle Mo will not meet the best colts in his location because of the decision made by his connections.  If their decision for whatever reason is to go the Tamp Bay Derby/Wood rout, then they are unlikely to meet To Honor and Serve, BAT or Dialed In etc. If the connections of these horses have other plans then it is unwise to conclude that they are avoiding starting against Uncle Mo. I get the impression that Uncle Mo is expected to meet horses that will be entered just to fill the two prep races targeted for him. If this is true, he has to be the most feared champion 2YO ever. I hope the connections of Monzon are not afraid to enter the Wood because of the pending entry of the super colt. Remember the great Secretariat was defeated in the Wood.

17 Jan 2011 9:36 PM
J money

every year i pick one horse and root him on its a lot of fun for me   this year its SWAY AWAY.

17 Jan 2011 9:48 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I do not understand your post (17 Jan 2011 11:28 AM). What exactly are you addressing. I have no issue with the #of preps for Uncle Mo before the derby. The great filly Regret made her 3YO debut in the Kentucky Derby and won. I my records are correct Triple Crown winner Sir Barton also made his first start as a 3YO in the Derby. He was then still a maiden.

Let me reiterate the only problem I have with this talented colt is the pedestal on which he has been placed after three races. One would think he recorded track records in each of his victories. He is being regarded as unbeatable and feared to the point that the connections of promising colt will be avoiding him at all cost.  I have been following thoroughbred racing for way too long to get caught up in the hype.

17 Jan 2011 9:56 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE,DRAYNAYaka TAKE QR TO THE BANK

Bet it's killing you two! lol

17 Jan 2011 9:59 PM
Johnny

Derby to far away will make my mind up 10 minutes before post as I always do..

17 Jan 2011 9:59 PM
tcc

I'm still waiting for news from Mott to see where THS will run, as well as news on Jaycito.  I think these two will be the ones standing tall come May.

jayjay 17 Jan 2011 1:03 PM

Just reading where these horses might possibly be racing next.

Fountain of Youth (G2)

To Honor And Serve he is listed as possible.

 San Vicente (G2)

Jaycito he is listed possible.

17 Jan 2011 10:02 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

First,it's Dray,not me that thinks Mo is the second coming of Secretariat,he has him already winning the Triple. If he's that sure,he has nothing to worry about,does he?

17 Jan 2011 10:03 PM
longwaytomay

Coldfacts,

 Let me see if I understand your logic. I get the impression that you think the connections of Uncle Mo should have waited to see where the real competion was going to race. Then they should have entered Mo in those races. That makes more sense than announcing their schedule four months in advance.

17 Jan 2011 10:19 PM
Footlick

Jersey Boy-yes.  The genetics are there at conception.  But genetics aren't thgat cut and dry.  Apalachee was bred to run all day, but he was a sprinter who sired sprinters.  I'm just throwing out the observation that Indian Charlie's offspring tend to be speedier animals who do not show a fondness for 10 furlongs in their 3 year old year.  He certainly could be the exception.  I just haven't seen an exception yet.  He does throw fast precocious animals.  That is all I was saying.

17 Jan 2011 10:29 PM
Jason Shandler

Sorry, this is a Triple Crown blog. No HOY comments will be posted. Not getting into that again. If you want to comment on that topic, Im sure there will be another venue on this site shortly where you can get your fill. Thanks for understanding.

17 Jan 2011 10:38 PM
Mike Relva

That's cool. Jason,what's your opinion on THAS?

17 Jan 2011 10:51 PM
Footlick

Thanks Jason

17 Jan 2011 10:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Jersey Boy,

You score on a lot of non-essential points and seem to consistently miss the substantive issues.  It appears that you love the smell of red herring.  Anyway take my opinion about AP Indy's lack of prowess as a Classic sire with ...just a spoonful of sugar and the medicine will go down ...in the most delightful way (a good tip from Mary Poppins) LOL.

Draynay,

Santa Anita has returned to Dirt.  This is a significant change.  Jaycito had a big problem in the BCJ and made a remarkable comeback to finish seventh.  He has the pedigree and class to become a force to reckon with under the astute management of Bob Baffert, therefore he cannot be ignored.  BAT is a very good colt up to 8.5 furlongs but his pedigree will let him down when the races get longer.  I can think of no son of Officer that has distinguished himself at Grade one level going long, therefore BAT is a toss from my list.  THS is thrown out based upon pedigree, that is, AP Indy grandson from the unproven sire Bernardini.  Most AP Indys falter in the spring because of their late development/maturity tendency IMO.  I need to see Bernadinis progeny break the AP Indy rule first.

Mickey 1957,

I'm not predicting a Triple Crown romp for Uncle Mo just yet because I do believe the Belmont stakes distance of 12 furlongs will present his stiffest challenge, and there are a couple of stamina-laiden colts that could come good around June.  As good as "Mo" is, he is not quite the cinch on paper that Eskendereya was last year for the Triple Crown, in my view.

17 Jan 2011 11:03 PM
Ranagulzion

The Bid,

Katmanblu and AZ Warrior are better fillies than Turbulent Descent.  Watch and see.

17 Jan 2011 11:10 PM
Tiznowbaby

I think Uncle Mo has a great shot at the Derby. He doesn't have that finished look to me that Arazi had, and I like his build. Plus, two preps is now de rigueur with top prospect, so no one has an advantage. But, I'm bummed that he's not being prepared for a Triple Crown campaign. I just don't think two preps will get that job done. It's like owners and trainers have conceded it's impossible and are just aiming for the Derby with an all or nothing approach.

17 Jan 2011 11:21 PM
GunBow

The San Pedro today at Santa Anita was not a swiftly run race, and the field consisted mainly of sprinters, but the winner, Indian Winter, is a horse to add to your Derby lists.

Indian Winter had run 3rd in the gr.1 Del Mar Futurity(behind JP's Gusto and Jaycito but ahead of Comma to the Top), but hadn't run since then before the San Pedro.  So, while the San Pedro will not get a strong Beyer, keep in mind that Indian Winter had a valid excuse for not running a top race(unlike the others in the field who just do not appear to be that good); one would have to think that Indian Winter will only get better.

Clearly, Indian Winter has some class and talent.  Physically, he has a nice look about him and is of medium build, with a longer type of body that suggests that he should be able to get at least middle distances.  His breeding suggests the same, Indian Charlie out of a Dixieland Band mare.  10 furlongs might be pushing it, but I think it's possible, and I see no reason to think he couldn't be competitive at the 8.5 or 9 furlongs of most preps.  He's got Jerry Hollendorfer in his corner, and while Jerry isn't established as a Triple Crown star, he's a real top trainer and undoubtedly can get the job done if given the right horse.  Lastly, while I don't pay too much attention to gallop outs, Indian Winter did draw well clear after the wire.

Of the San Pedro also-rans, it's hard to be enthusiastic about any of them.  However, the Baffert duo of Sinai and Classic Legacy may deserve 2nd chances.  Sinai didn't get the best trip, being stuck on the rail the entire trip while having to wait a bit on the turn.  Sinai never looked a real threat to win, but he can probably do better.  Classic Legacy rallied very mildly, but he was making his first start since the Delta Jackpot 2 months ago and may prefer two turns.

18 Jan 2011 2:58 AM
GunBow

With all respect to Tapizar, Blind Luck, and Always a Princess, the best field this weekend at Santa Anita was for the San Marcos.

The San Marcos brought together almost all of last year's top Cali distance turf horses, save Acclimation.  The deserving favorite for the San Marcos was Champ Pegasus, the rapidly improving winner of the gr.1 Clement Hirsch and BC Turf runner-up.  Facing him were recent gr.1 winner Unusual Suspect, graded stakes winner Marlang, the promising Sebastian Flyte and the male turf star of the 10' Santa Anita meet, Bourbon Bay.  Last year, Bourbon Bay joined Astray and Kotashaan as the only horses to sweep the San Luis Obispo, San Luis Rey, and San Juan Capistrano in the same meet.

Ultimately, class did rise to the top in the San Marcos, with Champ Pegasus taking the lead from Marlang at the top of the stretch and Bourbon Bay chasing after him in what turned into a two horse duel.  In the BC Turf, Champ Pegasus had put up valiant resistance, so Bourbon Bay was not given an easy task.  However, he was up to it, striding out impressively the final sixteenth to win by almost 2.  

The male turf division is not strong in Califonia or for North America for that matter, particularly the distance turf division.  In fact, the California marathon turf division has been weak for some time, something that both caused and is negatively affected by the fact races such as the San Luis Rey and San Juan Capistrano lost their grade 1 status.  The prolonged weakness of the marathon turf division is in stark contrast to the early-mid 90's, when California boasted stars such as Kotashaan, Bien Bien, Star of Cozzene, Sandpit, Marlin, Hawkster, and Fly Till Dawn(all of which, with the ironic exception of Star of Cozzene who had the misfortune of winning big races when they were temporarily at the level of gr.2, won at least 3 gr.1 races).  The Cali marathon turf division during the 2000s did have the occasional top horse like Bienamado, Johar(one of only 3 US based horses to win the BC Turf since 1998), The Tin Man and Champs Elysees, but they typically didn't face much depth. Hopefully, with 2 studs at the top of division, Bourbon Bay and Champ Pegasus, the Cali turf division can fill out and approach the level I had known growing up.

18 Jan 2011 3:35 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I think The Wood Memorial could be interesting depending on the Gotham field and results. I saw a very fast colt by Henney Hughes name Fort Hughes who is owned by Darley wining the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at the Big A on Monday. He ran 1:08 plus for the 6F distance of the race and was really extending his strides nicely in the last. If he is entered in the Gotham it will give us an opportunity to see if he can carry his speed.  His dam Forty Greeta was an unbeaten Champion 2-Year-Old filly in Argentina. She was sired by Roar who was dam sire of the HOY Rachael Alexandra. It he can stretch out it appears he has the speed to put some pressure on Uncle Mo in the Wood. Do you recall what happened in the 1973 Wood where Secretariat finished third? Angle Light got loose o the lead closely tracked by Sham. The two remained in their respective positions to the end.

There is another colt named Monzon that might enter the Wood. I think he is a real sleeper. In his victory in the Count Fleet he looked very lazy. It appeared he didn’t changed leads; he was lugging in and was in hand close to home. Assuming Uncle Mo and Fort Hughes get into a speed duel he just could close with for an upset.

OF course all of this is pure speculation but there could be some reasonable competition for the Mo in the Wood.

18 Jan 2011 6:49 AM
JerseyBoy

Ranagulzion:

I am not out to score any points. I am not a participant in a game of oneupmanship.

I judge horses by what they have done, not by what they did not do or ought to have done. That I leave to you.

AP Indy's stud fee remains $150K. The experts have put their money where their mouth is and I love this sire. He is America's best  sire of sires, maternal grandsire and producer of graded stakes winners. That is good enough for me

and this is the last time I will say anything about this. I do not have an obsession.

18 Jan 2011 7:43 AM
Billy's Empire

Ranagulzion, I agree with you on Kathmanblu. She is a good filly. Turbulent Descent is special as well. This is going to be a fun 3yo season.

I saw ARCHARCHARCH finish out of the money yesterday, not too good of a start on his way to the Southwest.

Congrats to all of the connections that won Eclipse Awards.

18 Jan 2011 8:42 AM
Billy's Empire

Thanks 2:24. I don't want to get on your bad side....

18 Jan 2011 8:49 AM
Footlick

GunBow- I agree.

18 Jan 2011 10:00 AM
Slew

I'm desperate for a TC winner, and it's nice to think Uncle Mo could do it.  I really like him.  However, I have to hold off for 2 reasons...one...it's too early.  I wasn't too certain of the second reason...I just knew that something I saw in his races bothered me.  So I went back and re-watched all of them, several times.  And now, I know.  Uncle Mo has the short, hard-pounding, choppy gait of a sprinter.  True, he had some leaping steps, but he never stretched out those legs in any race.  If he's going the distance, he has to lengthen his stride.  Champion sprinter Big Drama can and does stretch out because he's been in longer races before.  I watched the BC Juvenile several times, and thought Rogue Romance was much better at stretching out, with a more fluid stride.  BAT had short choppy strides also.  Now I'm torn.  Mike Repole is going out of his way to make Uncle Mo accessible to his fans, and I love that.  However, I highly doubt UM will get 10f.  Just my opinion, and I almost hope I'm wrong.

18 Jan 2011 10:02 AM
mickey 1957

I watched the smarty jones,also yesterday,and can't figure why they ran archarcharch on the lead,instead of just off,givin the track was like running in quick sand,he did stop,but finished well ahead of all the horse's he dueled with,he will be back,and if the track is playing,more toward speed,he'll be fine,that mile blow out in quick sand will benefit him.

18 Jan 2011 12:15 PM
Coldfacts

GunBow,

Your comments about the Indian Charlie colt Indian Winter are very interesting. I just watched the Del Mar Futurity again and he did close from far back to dead heat for 3rd with Riveting Reason a colt that I am high on. I am of the opinion that Indian Charlie’s off springs can effectively get 10F.  Indian Charlie is a great grandson Caro sire of Derby winner Winning Colors, dam sire Preakness winner Red Bullet and BCJ winner Unbridled Song. The grand sire of Indian Charlie‘s dam is Sovereign Dancer who sired Preakness winners Louis Quatorze and Gate Dancer. Indian Charlie existed the derby with a third place finish and a career ending injury. He therefore did not get a shot at a 4YO career to show he could rout. For what it’s worth Caro might have finished 4th in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in which then undefeated English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky was beaten. Indian Winter’s dam sire Dixieland Band is a proven derby broodmare sire. He was dam sire of derby winners Street Sense and Monarchos. He was also dam sire of the ill-fated derby runner up Eight Belles. Interestingly, Manorchos’ sire the Marias Mon was produced from a Caro dam. I am of the opinion that Indian Winter will have no problems effectively staying 10F. Uncle Mo is the hot Indian Charlie colt but Indian Winter has the better derby pedigree.

On the subject of Riveting Reason the colt I like. He finished dead heat for 3rd with Indian Winter in the  Del Mar Futurity (G1) while still a maiden. His next start was the Norfolk (G1)  and although he finished significantly closer, he was again bested by the two colts that finished ahead of him in the Futurity. (Jaycito/J P’s Gusto) Now winners Comma To The Top and Indian Winter sat out the Norfolk but the maiden Riveting Reason was entered into his second consecutive G1 race. If that was not crazy enough, he was then entered in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. That was his third straight G1 race as a maiden. Subsequent to the BCJ he started another three times. He was eventually entered in a maiden race that he won and then was soundly beaten by Comma To the Top in the (G1) Cash Call Futurity. Two weeks later he was on the track again going down by a length to promising Awesome Patriot.

Why have I mentioned these facts? Indian Winter was given time off after his 3rd place finish in the Del Mar Futurity and came back much improved. Riveting Reason was entered in races including three G1 and has gone backwards. This is a colt with lots of potential but has been badly managed. Sad indeed!

18 Jan 2011 12:31 PM
Householder

Billy's Empire.  Tapizar has to move up the short list of Derby prospects.  Like the fact that it was his 5th trip beyond a mile and I think he likes CD.  

Draynay.  Your right.  The winner of the Santa Anita Derby, like the Wood, has produced no Kentucky Derby winners in recent memory.  Just ask Indian Charlie.  Your Derby winner is typically a few lengths off in that one.  

18 Jan 2011 12:41 PM
WoodbineMile

2 Starts is fine. Once the Triple Crown Kicks off you have 3 grueling races, and of course the last being  the dreaded 1 1/2 at Belmont. Keeping some in Reserve before the Derby is wise. I have no doubt he will romp in his Debut, and hopefully Johnny will just ride him home with no asking.

18 Jan 2011 12:48 PM
Draynay

Can't get the distance.  Those four words are such garbage.  I was told Hard Spun wouldn't get the distance and that he was miler again and again.  If Street Sense doesn't get a perfect rail trip Hard Spun is your winner.  Hard Spun had speed and talent.  There is NOTHING in Mo's pedigree that suggest he can't get 1 1/4. Bet against him all you want.  Let me know how it works out for you.

18 Jan 2011 1:13 PM
Ranagulzion

JERSEY BOY,

You're not in a game of oneupmanship?  You had me totally fooled.  You mean all that strawman argument, grammar lesson, wikepedia and dictionary definition on precosity stuff was really about how good AP Indy is as a sire of Derby winners?  Anyway, its all good fun and instructive, thank you.  Peace and love Bro.  Do me a favour and tell me I'm right about AP Indy at the end of the Triple crown series.  Okay?

COLDFACTS,

That colt Fort Hughes looks to be all sprinter to me, both in pedigree, top and bottom, and running style.  Henny Hughes is speed and more speed.  He will not throw a genuine two turn horse IMO.  Also, don't expect "Mo" to be caught in any speed duel.  Its time you pay attention to how easily he relaxed behind one of your favourites Riveting Reason and just exploded when Johnny V roused him in the BCJ.  This Mo is one cool dude Bro.  If he remains healthy, the Derby and Preakness looks to be locked up.

18 Jan 2011 1:22 PM
DANIEL VILLALOBOS

Mike Repole & Todd Pletcher are smart by saying where they are sending Uncle Mo (TB Derby & Wood Memorial), which scares away the competition.  That means smaller fields in those 2 races, which results in his first real test the first Saturday in May.

18 Jan 2011 1:22 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Fact is like always when Mo loses in May you will do the usual,pretend you never was on him and throw your hype to the winner. You know,kinda like QR last Nov.

18 Jan 2011 1:34 PM
SSC

Jason, have a sleeper for you. Tom Albertrani has a horse - Chasing Moonlight - a Grand Slam colt. Won first time out at Tampa last week. They are real high on him. Will run next in an A other than early Feb at Gulfstream. Add him to your virtual stable.

18 Jan 2011 2:12 PM
jayjay

Thanks tcc!  Looking forward to watching them and see how they do.

Billy Billy Billy : Do you honestly believe the MET mile was tougher than the Foster ???  Come on, how long have you been into horse racing ???

The one time he faced Blame, he lost.  Everyone said, he would've won that race but yet he took the easy route after that and avoided Blame in the JCC and went against a G2 field in the Woodward.  This is last year though, let's try and focus on the Triple Crown.  I'm getting excited about this year's crop as I'm guessing come May, it will be a pretty even field, no outstanding colt and yet all have really good potential.  I think it might be a year like the 2004-2005 crop.  Good crop and the TC races determined the best one : Afleet Alex.

18 Jan 2011 2:16 PM
jayjay

Ranagulzion :  With all the "cool" stuff you post, with regards to UM, it's all eerily similar to how you hyped QR last year.  I'm just saying...

18 Jan 2011 2:38 PM
In aint easy being good!

Mike R who is your horse I am sure you have one by now. Dont hold back! Tapizar does look very smooth but Elite Alex is going to get better and better. He is going to be a monster just like his daddy. I guarantee he wins his next race and I agree that the derby winner this year comes from the Arkansas derby! Mo is not winning the derby Pletcher back to back derbies you must be crazy!

18 Jan 2011 3:00 PM
Billy's Empire

Saw Jaycito worked today 49.40 18/24 at Santa Anita. J.P Gusto worked 6 panels is 1:11.80, and Sweet Ducky had a good work at Palm Meadows in 49 flat. Machen walked around fairgrounds in 103 and change.

Also agree Fort Hughes is going to be a sprinter. Kings Bishop maybe??

18 Jan 2011 3:03 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

Please,the Derby and Preakness isn't "locked up". This is wide open. Not everyone is in love with Pletcher and his horses. Many thought the Derby was a done deal with I Want Revenge and last yr Esk. If you really know as much as you let on about racing keep an open mind,cause I've seen this movie before.

18 Jan 2011 3:31 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

There may be some method in the madness concerning Riveting Reason.  The colt is being toughened up while being allowed to fall off the radar.  Watch for him to spring a surprise in one of the preps.  Interestingly Premier Pegasus is being given a light campaign by the same trainer.  Just keep an eye on them.  That trainer is quite shrewd.

18 Jan 2011 3:34 PM
Jason Shandler

Thanks SSC. I will keep an eye on him.

18 Jan 2011 4:01 PM
TJ

Does anyone know of a website or anything who is keeping a count on the Graded Earnings yet? I know it is early but still would like to follow

THanks

18 Jan 2011 4:07 PM
In aint easy being good!

By the way its January and too early for derby picks Uncle mo could get the 20 post or 1 so to say he is a lock is crazy. Also it looks like the Uncle Mo bandwagon is full Draynay you can jump off of it any time and get on the Elite Alex Bandwagon! He is going to be moonwalking home in his next start!

18 Jan 2011 4:12 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

You cannot compare Fort Hughes to Riveting Reason. Fort Hughes debut was at Belmont Park where he won at 5 1/2F setting fractions of 22.34, 45.24, 56.93, 1:02.98. He must have been the best kept secret as he left the gates at 7-1. In his victory on Monday his splits were 22.21, 44.67, 56.37, 1:08.33. He was in hand in the last 10 meters. This colt does not have tear away speed. In fac,t his rider has nudged him along in both races I have seen. He does not have that smooth, effortless action of as printer. In a race like the Wood a 45 half mile horse would be splitting 47/48 for the half mile and possibly 1:12 for 6F. Uncle Mo will not blow by this colt easily as they will both be quickening coming out of the turn. I think if he starts he will provide formidable competition upfront without necessarily winning. I agree Fort Hughes has as printer pedigree but let us not forget that the Breeder Cup sprint champion Gulch sired Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Fort Hughes has one the most important ingredient required in a thoroughbred “Speed” The big question is does he have heart of a champion?

Riveting Reason does not have the speed of Fort Hughes. Uncle Mo blew by the only maiden in the BCJ field. In fact, I was shocked to see him on the lead in the BCJ. Based on his pedigree he is should be a tracker/closer. It appears he has good cruising speed but has not been displaying any closing kick. I believe he needs to be made stronger. This could come with a little time off. I do not believe we have seen the best of Riveting Reason consequently he will remain on my watch list.

18 Jan 2011 4:51 PM
jayjay

Billy Billy Billy :  Is that 49 and change official ?  It's not very Baffert like workout but works for me.  I'm just anxious to see him run again just to see where he's at.

Draynay : Any horse can get a mile and half, even 2 or 3 miles but NOT every horse can get the distance when they are competing, big difference.  Hard Spun didn't win because he couldn't win the distance when racing against other colts.  If he was jogging or working out, yes, he'll get the distance.  Tell me, did Hard Spun win ?  or was he short on ALL 3 TC races ?  There were BETTER distance horses than him, that's why he didn't win.  Same logic, some horses this year will be at best 1 1/16 mile and they will be exposed in the TC races.

TJ : It is too early but when they do start earning money, I normally go to thedowneyprofile.com (not sure if it's okay to post it here) but they normally have a a pretty up-to-date info on that.

18 Jan 2011 5:06 PM
JerseyTom

Important allowance event at GP Friday afternoon. Be sure to watch. Dialed In, Soldat, others. ... Could offer some insight.

18 Jan 2011 5:07 PM
Trebloc

The speed favoring Santa Anita track is getting some trainer to start thinking about heading east. If your horse cannot get the lead, they are running for second.

18 Jan 2011 5:47 PM
Mike Relva

IT AINT EASY BEING GOOD

Good point what you said regarding post positions. That's what I posted last week about drawing post one. Horses that have my interest are THAS,The Factor( not convinced he can't get 10f) also Black and Beauty. With the "Dray curse" Uncle Mo maybe finished. lol What do you think of Black and Beauty?

18 Jan 2011 5:56 PM
tcc

Mike Relva;

DRAYNAY will have a sleeper horse, even if the horses he is touting do not win, after the Derby if the sleeper horse wins he will say he bet on it. The sleeper horses name is Calvin Borel, oh sorry that's the jockey.

18 Jan 2011 6:10 PM
tcc

I'm just throwing out the observation that Indian Charlie's offspring tend to be speedier animals who do not show a fondness for 10 furlongs in their 3 year old year. Footlick 17 Jan 2011 10:29 PM

Fleet Indian finished 5th in the Aug. 21st 2004 Alabama Stakes (G1) 1 1/4 mile dirt race 3 y.o. fillies. (FYI)

18 Jan 2011 6:38 PM
Householder

I don't think we have heard from Jaycito yet.  His daddy Victory Gallop blew the doors off Indian Charlie in the Derby coming from dead last at the 1/2 mile pole to place.  He also caught Kent D in the Belmont after he used up Real Quiet...a nose away from winning the Triple Crown.  You got the "ghost" of Baffert's past running all through this thing. The guy doesn't even bother to show up for Eclipse Awards shows anymore.

18 Jan 2011 6:49 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

I read that you are predicting a loss for Mo in the month of May.  Trust me buddy, you haven't seen this movie.  No sir.  It must have been one of those nightmares you were having about Mo the monster making May a miserable month for Mike, and Todd Pletcher' second consecutive Derby win sending you into another 3 months hiatus from the Blog.  Relax Mike and enjoy the ride.  Todd P seems to be a really a nice guy and his horses are just fast, thats all.  Why withhold support for a classy colt and predict his defeat for no other reason than not liking the Trainer.  Tell me have you ever met the man or exchanged words with him?  Your position is very irrational.  Everyone has preferences in people as in horses but dislike for a trainer as a person makes for very unorthodox handicapping.

18 Jan 2011 6:50 PM
Householder

I just want to listen to those who had Super Saver this early last year!

18 Jan 2011 6:52 PM
Householder

Since 1984 how many times has the Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner also won the Kentucky Derby?  I can only think of Street Sense.  Am I right?  1 for 26.  

18 Jan 2011 7:03 PM
Mike Relva

TCC

Good, I know what you are saying. He never admits he's wrong,does he? He will be off Uncle Mo in about 2 seconds if he loses the Tampa Derby.

18 Jan 2011 7:05 PM
2:24

It ain't easy - count me in on the Elite Alex bandwagon.  Also watching Sway Away.

18 Jan 2011 7:25 PM
Trebloc

Householder,

That would be me!  

18 Jan 2011 7:50 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

It's great knowing your the voice of reason. lol Look, even if I liked Pletcher still don't think Mo will win in May.You're a Pletcher supporter,good for you,sorry to rain on your parade,I don't like him. And no,never met him and  wouldn't walk down the street to meet him. Yeah,he's a "nice guy" the way LAT was handled,right? And,yes I've seen this movie, people not keeping an open mind months before Derby day,talk about irrational. lol

If your so certain of your golden boy's ability in getting Mo ready to trump the rest in the Derby,take me up on my bet.

18 Jan 2011 7:52 PM
Footlick

tcc- I was trying to be nice.  I guess I could have said they don't want to go 10 furlongs as 3 yr olds.  Fleet Indian did not win at 10 furlongs until she was older.

18 Jan 2011 7:55 PM
Householder

The Santa Anita Derby looks a whole lot better come Preakness time. Preakness winners who ran in the SA Derby.

Lookin at Lucky

Point Given

Charismatic

Real Quiet

Silver Charm

Tabasco Cat

Sunday Silence

Snow Chief

Affirmed

18 Jan 2011 8:06 PM
SPLITSOF12

It'll be interesting to see Uncle Mo make his 2011 debut on March 12, in the Tampa Bay Derby. I like my Derby horse to have run in February, March, and April. I feel 3 prep races are the perfect amount for a 3-year-old. Especially one the size of Uncle Mo. I'll never forget when Point Given faltered as the favorite in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. I bet my bankroll on him thinking he was a cinch at 9/5. Physically he looked better than the rest. So what happened? Well in my estimation, a big horse like that probably needed another race to really stretch out and work out the kinks. I think Baffert babied the horse too much instead of let him do what he loves most and that's run. Team Baffert's strategy didn't pan out and the rest is history. As for Uncle Mo, who knows? Maybe this new trend of conservative training is the correct roadmap to getting a Derby Winner. It's worked for the last four winners. If this trend holds up, maybe it'll set the new standard for conditioning the in the 21st century. Still, I'll bet against Uncle Mo if he even makes it to the Derby. He most likely will be the heavy favorite and my money says he'll get beat on the turn. Give me a horse with a solid 2-year-old foundation and 3 good preps as a 3-year-old and I'll make a case for him as long as he ran in the money in all his races. It's still aways away but here is my Top Ten for now.

1. Uncle Mo

2. Boys at Tosconova

3. Rogue Romance

4. To Honor and Serve

5. Mucho Macho Man

6. The Factor

7. Major Gain

8. Santiva

9. Jaycito

10. Tapizar            

18 Jan 2011 8:10 PM
JBATIIZ

GREAT RACE OON JANUARY 21ST ON GULFSTREAM PARk- ASHADO HALF BROTHERS LAUBURU vs. MINESHAFT IMPRESSIVE WINNER DIALED IN, GREAT RACE ON 1 1/8mile  PREPS FOR THE FLORIDA DERBY!!! ALSO SOLDAT 2ND BC JUV TURF, FINANCIAL EMPIRE WINNERS at CRC and COOL BLUE RED HOT!!!

18 Jan 2011 8:20 PM
tcc

I just want to listen to those who had Super Saver this early last year!

Householder 18 Jan 2011 6:52 PM

Householder:

Here is a blast from the past. (last year in January).

Dray,  Didn't Pletcher train Rags to Riches?  Super Saver will win the Derby!

trebloc 08 Jan 2010 1:56 PM

18 Jan 2011 8:37 PM
The Bid

Ranagulzion...What about our T-Shirt Idea???? regarding TD..Gilchrest was there when she was purchased and he is a friend of one of my close buddies who gets TIPS from him all the time. She is really coming into her OWN and has yet been asked...She runs again on Feb.5th @Santa Anita!! Mike R. is just a MO HATER and has someone else talking 'bout post positions, must make him feel all fuzzy inside when someone agrees with him.LMAO...What is all this talk about running style??? Last time I checked MO SMOKED EVERY FIELD as a 2yr. old, RESULTS BOYS, focus on RESULTS not STYLE...This HORSE has yet to hit bottom and by the way it sounds he won't hit his bottom 'till MAY!!! What A POTENT Animal MO IS 'BOUT TO BECOME!!!!!

18 Jan 2011 8:44 PM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

Give Uncle Moe some breathing space.  Look what you said about Quality Road and what happened.  We all want to see a worthy three year old champion this year and right now Moe is the deserving leader in the division.  I'm with you at this point.  I love him, but I don't like the way in which they are going to ask him to do too much too soon without the proper foundation.  I agree with Mike Relva.  If Uncle Moe loses this and Tampa can be a tough surface to race on, Draynay will be off him in a second and maybe that's what Moe will need.

18 Jan 2011 8:51 PM
Mike Relva

THE BID

Not a "Mo hater". Last time I checked it's a democracy. You pick your horse,I'll pick mine. Just don't "do a DRAY" and spin it after it doesn't work out for you,ok?

18 Jan 2011 9:14 PM
Trebloc

TCC,

That's pretty scary!  Anyone want to know why I like Brethren?

18 Jan 2011 9:18 PM
tcc

Just reading where these horses MIGHT be possibly running next. Holy Bull (G3)

Date/Track: 1/30/2011, Gulfstream Park Distance: 1 mile (Dirt)

Boys At tosconova

Mucho Macho Man

Gourmet Dinner

Sway Away

Decisive Moment

Black N beauty

Sweet Ducky

Robert B. Lewis (G2)

Date/Track: 2/12/2011, Santa Anita Park Distance: 1 1/8 m (Dirt)

Comma To The Top

J P's Gusto

Tapizar

Clubhouse Ride

Fountain of Youth (G2)

Date/Track: 2/26/2011, Gulfstream Park Distance: 1 1/8 m (Dirt)

To Honor And Serve

Santiva

Mountain Town

18 Jan 2011 9:51 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

I don't regard myself as a Pletcher supporter.  I don't know him personally but I admire what I am able to observe about him, that is , his professional approach to his job as trainer, cool demeanor, friendliness to the press and his candor regarding his horses.  He is by no means the perfect trainer and scored very low marks in his handling of the Life At Ten situation IMO.  Also, on reflection I think he didn't figure out how to get Quality Road to peak at the Breeder's Cup.  That was my second biggest disappointment with him because even after the narrow loss to Blame in the Whitney, QR was the only horse capable of winning the HOTY title without dispute and polarisation, had he been presented in peak condition. I lay that failure at Pletcher's feet but its just my opinion and a debatable point.  That's no reason to malign Todd P and not rate the horses under his charge.  I suggest that you rethink your position and let your handicapping be more about the quality of the horses and less about your peave with the trainer.

18 Jan 2011 10:17 PM
Mike Relva

RANAQULZION

You made a very good point about QR. Get back to me after Derby day,don't see it happening. People amuse me when in Janury they are so sure who the winner will be. Do you think anyone on this blog had Mine That Bird winning?

18 Jan 2011 10:44 PM
jayjay

Trebloc : Now I'm intrigued, cause I'm looking at Brethren too but right now I prefer Biondetti as my third horse (behind Jaycity and THS).  I'm just not sure whether he'll stay here or not.

Ranagulzion : How do you know that QR didn't peak at the BC and just didn't have it ?  He went to the front and got burnt.  Is that so hard to accept ?  This is why I said earlier, your hyping of Uncle Mo is scaring me as it was along the lines of how you hyped QR winning the BC.  I hope you don't carry any curse like Draynay does.  It's not fair to UM.

18 Jan 2011 11:01 PM
Forbidden Apple

2010 is over, Uncle Mo beat Boys At Toscanova, big deal. A horse that has only had 3 career races has a bunch of you talking about a triple crown winner, I don't get it. Most of this years contenders on the KY Derby trail most likely did not even start in the 2010 B.C. juvenile against Mo. I am more interested in finding a horse under the radar who is still improving. Why eat chalk with Pletcher and Mo? Dr. Drunkinbum is the only person on this blog who nailed it with Mo, this horse will be retired before he even gets battle tested. Right now it looks like Mo will have a lot of company up front if The Factor, Tapizar, and Comma To The Top stay healthy. I don't believe for one second that Mo is a lock in any race or a horse to be feared in the KY Derby.

After last saturday, I am definitely going to watch out for Break Up The Game. He was closing fast and galloped out past the entire field, I hope he moves forward towards the FL Derby. The Gulfstream surface is speed favoring and this horse should only improve at a mile.

Does anyone have current information on Endorsement, Awesome Act, or Conveyance?

19 Jan 2011 1:53 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Trebloc

   Is this a contest? A new car !!!! A brand new frost free refrigerator !!!! Because of War Admiral on top and bottom? Get Lucky? Because of Man o' War top  and bottom? 36 pedigree number? Well? Hope we don't have to wait til next week for the answer.

19 Jan 2011 3:31 AM
Slew

Ranagul..here I am..right back at you ;)

I like Todd Pletcher.  What happened to LAT happens every day at tracks across America.  The only difference is that this happened on the international stage of the Breeders' Cup, and has thus become a major issue.  Even Laurin found Secretariat stiff at times, and told the jockey to try to warm him on the track...which is exactly what Pletcher did with LAT.  The onus then passed to the jockey, vets, and stewards who were all aware of LAT's condition, and did nothing to keep her from running.  So let's stop hanging that albatross around Pletcher's neck.

However, I felt QR was one of the best milers in the country.  But Pletcher kept placing him in races beyond his optimum distance...and he kept losing in those races.  Whether it was the owner or the trainer who dictated that, I don't know.  But I wouldn't be paying a trainer tons of $$ to put my best horse in the wrong races.  The trainer is supposed to be the person who knows the horse best.  Why wasn't QR placed in the BC dirt mile instead of the classic?  The prestige?  All QR got out of it was a lower stud fee.

19 Jan 2011 8:02 AM
longwaytomay

Ranagulzion,

 I believe that Pletcher did all he could to have QR in peak condition. I think that Quality Road had problems with his feet from day one. Ask Jimmy Jerkins. I don't think that it ever went away and Pletcher had to be very careful with the horse as to not aggravate the situation. Pure speculation on my part, but with the breeding shed being their top priority they weren't going to mention the feet as being a problem.

19 Jan 2011 8:28 AM
In aint easy being good!

The Bid you must be new. Remember its fricken January last couple of years we have had locks like I want Revenge, Eskedraya, Pamelmousee all locks to win and didnt even make the gate. Mo has a big disadvantage and that is History and Pletcher. Didnt Pletcher train Eskendraya last year yep the only reason pletcher won the derby is he had calvin borel in his pocket. When is the last time a trainer has won back to back derbies? Also hasnt a new trainer won the derby every year since horse racing started?? 2:14 welcome aboard!

19 Jan 2011 11:16 AM
Householder

trebloc.  Nice filtering of "non sense" last January and coming up with Super Saver to WIN!  

What do you have going this year?  I'm all ears.

19 Jan 2011 2:32 PM
Householder

I thought Draynay had his best season ever sticking with the 2 Cash Call Futurity runners Noble's Promise and Lookin at Lucky (2 year old champion).  For some unknown reason he threw Lucky under the bus after the Derby...

19 Jan 2011 2:43 PM
Ranagulzion

Slew, Longwaytomay,

For me Todd Pletcher's best should be good enough, improved, for the future (I hope he reads these blogs) because it certainly wasn't good enough with Quality Road in the BCC last year.  I presume he's still on the learning curve as a trainer who seems to uphold standards of excellence and I've forgiven him over those two Breeder's cup blunders (LAT and QR). Quality Road was without doubt/exaggeration the fastest horse on the planet on dirt from 6-9 furlongs and no one can convince me that he couldn't beat that Breeder's Cup Classic field going 10 furlongs on his best day.  The point is however a moot one and we must move on to the budding stars of 2011.

I fancy Pletcher to score back to back Derby wins and Johnny V to breakthrough after two successive years of disappointment with Quality Road in 2009 and Eskendereya in 2010.  I'm really trusting that Uncle Mo remains sound because he is a very very talented race horse.  I'm tempering my superlative descriptions until after he shows us that he has trained-on in the Tampa Bay Derby.  There are a couple of other really good colts with solid pedigree that I like very much so I think that we're in for a thrilling Derby prep season.

19 Jan 2011 8:50 PM
furlongs

First off for a number of years I been reading these things and never posting anything. DRAY has never and I mean never seen a 3-5 he didn't love!! Now about Mo... was he the most impressive 2 year old? Yes without a doubt. THAS without a doubt was the second most accomplished 2 yr last year. These are the 2 horses you have to use to compare all others with, simple as that. Now that being said. Can Mo win the derby? He looks to have the talent to do so. Can he go the distance? Lets be honest after Funny Cide won the KY Derby I think pretty much any breed can! Breeding is all about speed anymore in American racing and when you do find a horse that has that "can run all day" look in there breeding well to be nice about it there just to slow and plod along on the dirt. Then as they get older they switch to the turf and bingo they find there thing. Do I think Mo will win the Derby? Who knows its late January!! But everyone and I mean everyone has to catch up to him thats for sure. There are a number of horses that look like they could be something special as well. I can tell you one thing its not anything that has speed on the west coast. West Coast speed is totally fake it has been for a number of years now. And now that SA is a merry go round its really going to be that way. The 1/2 bro to Super Savor really looks like he has some true talent. Tampa is the spot to race Mo cause that Gulfstream Park strip is a killer on horses that have speed which Mo does. Tampa is and has been a great place to leg horses up over the winter. Turf as well as dirt. The only way a horse gets out of GP alive and well is if he is a one run horse. It just takes to much out of horses that have speed. It has been this way for several years now. Pletcher is doing what is right by the horse and that is running at TBD and then going to the Wood and 3rd off a layoff the KY Derby. He won his first derby that way and hes doing what worked in the past for him. For the sport of racing I am hoping MO is something truely special I will not try to beat him in any prep he runs in before the Derby but if he is 6-5 on Derby Day he wont be on any of my  tickets I have in my pocket, and if he wins I wont be upset one bit, because its good for racing and maybe we can finally get a triple crown winner.

20 Jan 2011 2:34 AM
furlongs

In aint easy being good, Bob  Baffert won the KY Derby back to back years in the 90's...

20 Jan 2011 2:38 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

furlongs

    Baffert is in a quandry with The Factor because he does believe he is very talented. He doesn't quite know what to do yet. He's going to be trying to slow him down. If he didn't think he was Derby caliber he wouldn't worry about it so much. Maybe he'll ship him off to OP or FG. Pletcher may or may not be doing what is best to get a Derby win for Mo, but is he preparing him for a Triple Crown? Or does he not know if he can win The Belmont so he just wants to get The Derby win and just see what happens from there? I would want a stronger foundation for a run at the Triple Crown. The Belmont is always a question but Mo does seem to be Triple Crown material. There is no reason to think he can't improve despite his domination 2yo performance.

20 Jan 2011 1:17 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion

QR was brilliant.......at GP vs. lesser foes. Come on man,the reason QR threw in the towel in the BCC is simple: Distance limitations.He never won going 10f, 0-3 to be exact and no way-no how he'd ever beat that field,..maybe @ a mile...maybe. I'm surprised your self professed keen eye was blinded by your stubbornness to not notice Blame catching him @ 9f didn't bode well for him going longer.Even the late Ray Charles would've seen that coming.

You are wise in tempering your superlative descriptions for UM,.. we've been here before.It's like deja-vu all over again(thanks Yogi)so let's wait and see how UM reacts/performs as he goes longer against real distance-type horses.Even if he airs in his preps,I highly doubt he'll be successful in the Ky.Derby,because his middle distance-pedigree will eventually catch up to him as well as the other up-and-coming colts with true 'Classic breeding'.

20 Jan 2011 2:08 PM
Jason Shandler

Stop with your "middle-distance pedigree" stuff Carlos. People like Ranagulzion and myself can recognize talent when we see it. If you need to be beaten over the head before you admit a young horse is special, it will be too late for you. You can have all of your pedigree theories, we'll take the fastest horse. He usually wins the most races.

20 Jan 2011 2:15 PM
Karen in Texas

It aint easy being good---Lukas won the Kentucky Derby in 1995 and 1996 with Thunder Gulch and Grindstone. Baffert won in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet. I believe those are the most recent.

20 Jan 2011 2:16 PM
In aint easy being good!

Thanks for the update do its been 12 years since we have had a back to back winner sounds like we will have a new trainer winning again. I doubt Mo makes the gate but he is a beast. I think the long layoff will get the best of him and other horse in training will catch up to him. I guess we will find out tomorrow when Dialed runs at gulfstream. The first race of Uncle mo will tell all but how cool of a name is uncle mo!

20 Jan 2011 2:38 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

Its futile at this stage to debate QR any further since there's no more opportunity to prove each others point on the track.  Lets agree to disagree about his true potential.

Now regarding Uncle Mo, we only need to know that he trains on as a 3YO and it will be game over Bro (assuming he stay healthy of course).  Your analytical angle, I'm used to by now Carlos.  You are gonna be waiting in vain for "AP" to throw you a Derby winner my friend.

20 Jan 2011 3:10 PM
Carlos in Cali

Never said he wasn't talented,he is. But,I'm not convinced he gets the 10f as effectively as you and others think he can.Remember what you and Ranagulzion kept saying about QR.... he sure looked special,except when he went up against better stock & tried 10f.Big difference.

I think I'm a pretty good judge of talent also,for instance I instinctly knew Zenyatta was special.You on the other hand...well,we all know how you feel about her.Cheers!

20 Jan 2011 3:35 PM
Jason Shandler

I had Blame in the BC Classic Carlos. How'd that turn out for you?

20 Jan 2011 3:42 PM
Carlos in Cali

Hit the tri & super,thanks for the reminder.

20 Jan 2011 3:48 PM
jayjay

It's funny how you guys are still talking about QR.  I told you guys way back before the Whitney that Blame was Zenyatta's main competition and kept telling you guys that and you tell me I need to learn more about horse racing.  You guys touted QR like he was going to annihilate the field, that he was the beast.  In the end, I had the top 5 listed before the race and QR well, I think he's still running :)

20 Jan 2011 4:15 PM
Jason Shandler

Carlos: Uh huh. I guess you didnt play a key because Im pretty sure you had the mare picked to win. Maybe next year.

Jayjay: If you're done patting yourself on the back, you also picked the mare to win. Funny how both of you are taking credit for tris and supers yet didnt even have the winner. lol

20 Jan 2011 4:20 PM
Carlos in Cali

Jason,I'm a strictly pace/class handicapper.If you want you can go back and check where I stated Zenyatta & Blame were the 2 that would enjoy the distance and pace scenario.Yes,I picked her to win on THESE blogs,but I never place "win,place or show" bets. I play the exotics and I keyed them on top knowing they were the 2 best horses in the field @ 1 1/4.It didn't take a genius to figure that out.I bet to make money and that I did. Did you even have the exacta or was a win ticket all that you cashed. lol,I recall you saying she'd finish no better than 4th or 5th.

20 Jan 2011 4:48 PM
Householder

Ben Jones-Citation 1948, Ponder 1949.

Lukas once entered 2 fillies in the same Kentucky Derby.  Althea and Life's Magic in 1984.

20 Jan 2011 5:23 PM
In aint easy being good!

Damn Jason coming out with guns blazin you did have the winner and you had a good 2010. I am convinced you know your stuff and now tune in every week to listen to your picks. You look scared on tv though and might want to relax a bit!

Carlos in Cali haha your mare did lose your horses in Cali are overrated bro get used to it. Let me know when one of them show up and win something. The factor is such a joke and all hype like dunkirk.

20 Jan 2011 5:25 PM
stevebiscuit

Jason, picking Blame in the Classic is hardly something to brag about. Most people realized that he was Zenyatta's biggest threat because of his home track advantage. It's not like you picked Volponi or something.

20 Jan 2011 7:32 PM
Jason Shandler

Thanks Steve. I had the 9-2 winner. You had the even-money loser. Better luck next year. I will help guide you, dont worry.

20 Jan 2011 7:58 PM
Jason Shandler

It Aint Easy: Thanks for compliment. If I looked scared its probably because I'm worried that I'll never get the money you owe me from our bets, which were made last Triple Crown season. Its been over nine months dude. Weak.

20 Jan 2011 8:00 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

You say that you are a pretty good judge of talent yet you are "Mo shy"  tell me why?  Which Californian colt is on your radar Bro?  As a pace/class (and regional-biased) handicapper, tell us whats your Derby forcast looking like at this moment.  it is too easy to knock Mo.  Name three of your favourites ...oh let me guess; Astrology, To Honour and Serve, and er Shadow Warrior?  What do they all have in common?

Carlos your angle is pretty easy to figure out, even for a fifth grade biology student(LOL).

20 Jan 2011 8:38 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion

As of right now I'm keeping my eye on To Honor and Serve,Rogue Romance,Jaycito and Premier Pegasus.We'll see how they perform when they return from their lay-offs.It's still way too early for me to pin point my final picks,but this much I know: on pedigree alone these 4 have the advantage on UM in being able to get 10f effectively,by that I mean gaining ground near the finish and not backing-up like UM's pedigree suggests.

Man,you Uncle Mo' hucksters get bent out of shape when others don't share your worship of him.He's very talented,but I'll bet against him in the Derby.

20 Jan 2011 11:19 PM
Footlick

I guess we are still talking about the TC?

20 Jan 2011 11:30 PM
Furlongs

A.P. Indy is the answer!! lol

20 Jan 2011 11:41 PM
Furlongs

I truely believe in the RAN factor when it comes to the Ky Derby and this is a reason I love A.P. Indy on the bottom of the breeding not the Sire line. Was all over Super Saver in the Derby last year even though dumb Calvin was riding... I think his 1/2 brother may be better then Super Saver but then again I think Mo is also more talented then anything that ran in the Derby last year as well. AND no all you Calf. racing fans, I am not knocking Lookin at Lucky he was a nice race horse.

20 Jan 2011 11:47 PM
jon

Uncle Mo earned a 108 Beyer for the BC Juvenile, and Pletcher believes he will improve. No other 2 year old got close to that figure. If he improves, we are looking at a colt with 120-125 Beyers. He will crush the fields he faces through the Triple Crown. My guess is he can run a mile in 1:30 flat, and get the Belmont in 2:22 or less.

Speaking of starting a late campaign, Man O' War's first 3 year old start in 1920 was the Preakness in May, so who cares what Mo does. I would be very frustrated if I were Mo's competition at this point, because I seriously doubt anyone can ever beat him given that stride and turn of foot he has.

Also, Secretariat was suspect at longer distances due to the Bold Ruler influence. How'd that work out for you guys? Breeding experts will imply that all offspring of a certain cross will perform equally well. Really? Hmm...Man O'War's sister was a Morning Glory, Secretariat's full sister was unplaced in 4 starts. How about John Henry...his sire was Ole Bowers, unknown as a horse and sire. So, honestly, toss the Breeding out the window and look at what the horse is doing, not what his breeding says he should be doing...Mo is the real deal.

21 Jan 2011 12:20 AM
Footlick

jon- you cannot throw breeding out the window, nor conditioning.  It would be amazing if Uncle Mo was as talented and as stamina laden as Man O War.  I really don't think the comparison can be made.  Do you know how many starts Man O War had as a two year old? He started 10 times.  That is a foundation.  He also carried as much as 130 as a two yr old and 138 as a three year old.  Racing then was so different from now.  Conditioning used to be a key element in getting a two year old to progress.  It seems like that is not the case anymore.  That's why the concern.  I believe a horse needs to be race conditioned to get through the TC unscathed and able to run the rest of the year.

As for Secretariat, yes there were concerns.  But the Nasrullah/Princequillo cross was golden so people also speculated that Princequillo could give him the stamina needed.  There were just as many supporters that he could get a distance of ground as not.

History is riddled with horses who should have been great who weren't and who shouldn't have but were.  It only applies to them.  You can't generalize.  Breeding is not an exact science.  You use breeding as one of the guidelines.  There are many.  Trainers rarely race condition their two year olds anymore.  It is worrysome to me that we are talking about a horse who is yet unproven as one of the greats, in the same breath as Man O War and Secretariat.  I hope he progresses.  I hope he is going to be the next Secretariat.  It would be great for racing.

As for your predictions, War Pass earned a 113 for his BCJ.  I'm sure they thought he would improve too.  We just have to wait and see.  Again, if he is the greatest of all time, then I will applaud him as that.  to me, he isn't at the moment.  He is a very good horse.  Not a legend.

21 Jan 2011 11:11 AM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

It's impossible to sit here and proclaim already in Jan. who is the Derby winner. You know how that works out.

21 Jan 2011 11:27 AM
Footlick

Miesque is dead.  Brilliant miler.  Could run on any ground.

21 Jan 2011 11:55 AM
In aint easy being good!

Damn Jason your right I do owe you I am still not over you picking freakin drosslemesser in the belmont what a bunch of crap! Email me your address again if you can and as soon as I hit this week on your picks I will pay ya. I will pull up your Leconmte video.

21 Jan 2011 12:12 PM
Karen in Texas

Yes, good-bye to Miesque. She had a remarkable career both on and off the track.

jon---The Belmont in 2:22 or less?? Your thinking on Uncle Mo seems almost impossibly ambitious, especially at this stage of the Triple Crown trail.

21 Jan 2011 12:36 PM
Ranagulzion

MIKE RELVA,

Similarly it is highly improbable for you to sit there and say who will not win the derby, so lets just have some fun and see who got it right.  Uncle Mo, Santiva and Tapizar look very good right now to me.

21 Jan 2011 12:44 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

What?!!  Tapizar the great grandson of your beloved AP Indy, now based in California, is not on your radar?  He could be the one to redeem the overrated sire and put some much needed ammunition in your argument against my AP Indy Derby doctrine ...and you overlook him.  Seriously, Tapizar, if he continues to improve could be a threat to MO ...no kidding Bro.

21 Jan 2011 12:57 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick, too bad.She was something special.In your opinion,who was the better horse @ a mile on firm turf.Miesque or Goldi....

I say Miesque.She would've gotten the jump on Goldi and kept it.

It aint easy, are you serious? They win all over the country,clear the smoke from in front of your eyes and you might notice. :)

21 Jan 2011 1:24 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- I agree with your late developing assessment of AP Indy. But not as an overrated sire.  He has made his mark as a sire and is on his way to being a sire of sires.

21 Jan 2011 1:30 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion,

I'm impressed by his last 2 races,he seems to be improving and looks very talented.But the track @ Santa Anita is ridiculously favoring speed so until he shows he can ration his natural speed a little bit,I'll take a wait and see type of approach.There's plenty of speedy front running horses on the trail currently,that's why I'm staying clear from those types.We'll see,he looks good though.

21 Jan 2011 1:59 PM
Ranagulzion

FOOTLICK,

I really mean overrated in the context of our discussion, i.e. as sire of Triple Crown aspirants.  I assumed those following the debate would understand.  I do accept that AP is a great sire of stakes performers and a most reliable stamina influence and sire of sires.  He is just a dud at producing formidable Triple Crown aspirants.  Thats all, and many are blinded to this fact by their loyalty to him or to his sire Seattle Slew.

BTW I'll take Goldi over Miesque at a mile.  Her turn of foot is like none other and she's no slouch in the early going if she has to be closer.  I don't think that Miesque could survive her late rally.  Sorry to disagree with Carlos again.

21 Jan 2011 2:41 PM
Householder

Pletcher trained a lot of "Derby contenders" including Dunkirk and Devil May Care.  Dublin was Lukas' 44th start in the Kentucy Derby!!!

21 Jan 2011 3:15 PM
Footlick

Carlos- Miesque on any type of turf at any distance.  Miesque was one of the most dominant milers Europe has seen.  She had speed and class.  She also finished second to Indian Skimmer in the Dianne.  She was of the highest class.  Period.  Brilliant at two, three and 4.

21 Jan 2011 6:15 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- I have been following.  But you do make broad statements sometimes, so I was just making sure.

21 Jan 2011 6:15 PM
Forbidden Apple

Jon,

How many beers did you drink before your last posting? Mo could not even run a mile in 1:30 on the new highway 101 for horses known as Santa Anita. With 3 career races and with his best competition being Boys At Toscanova, I would be a bit cautious before I started immortalizing this horse. With newly turned 3 year olds, a new star could pop up any day of the week.

21 Jan 2011 6:33 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

I won't have a "spin" if i'm wrong in May,will step up as always. Just thought you would learn something,especially what happen with QR last yr.

21 Jan 2011 6:58 PM
jayjay

Jason : You didn't even have Blame as your pick until the last minute.  I've always said Blame was Zenyatta's main opponent, that means, if you didn't get it then, that I believe Blame to be the one to beat her.  It was as simple as that.  You jumped off QR at the last minute and claimed you had the winner...I had picked Blame way way before you did bud.

21 Jan 2011 9:01 PM
Jason Shandler

Jayjay: First of all, thanks for sending me the money I won from our bet so promptly. It was greatly appreciated and came in handy during the holidays. Let me know when you would like to lose another bet.

Secondly, you couldnt be more wrong. I said Blame was better than Zenyatta BEFORE he even won the Stephen Foster and I said it on this blog. I dont have time to look it up but I remember it distictly because Mike Revla was making fun of me that I would say such an outrageous thing before the horse had even won a grade I race. Mike can back me up on this. So you see, I knew all along that Blame was better than Zenyatta, I just didnt want to tip my hand too soon. For the record, I'm sure he would beat her again and again if they met multiple times. He is the better horse and proved it on the track. Who cares about some meaningless award that a bunch of racing secretaries and part-time writers vote on? The opinions that we should trust the most on racing awards are from DRF because they actually cover the races every day. And in their voting Blame had a 38-21 advantage. They understand that awards are about performance, not the Oprah Winfrey show.

21 Jan 2011 11:15 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- I would not be so confident to think that Goldikova could outkick Miesque.  It took Goldikova a whole year more of racing to get more gr 1's than Miesque.  And Miesque ran against Milligram, Sonic Lady, Warning, Soviet Star, Indian Skimmer, Ravinella, etc.  You may not feel so, but I feel Miesque ran against tougher horses.  Nothing against Goldikova.  A briliant horse, but you have to be more than brilliant to be better than Miesque.  Miesque was a legend and one of the best milers Europe had ever seen.

21 Jan 2011 11:58 PM
jayjay

Jason : You're welcome, and it's not my money, it's a small amount to my winnings hitting the Hi-5 (7K).  The only reason you won that bet is because I gave you the field, when we made the bet, you wouldn't take a head to head bet (QR vs Zenyatta) becausee at the time, you were all over QR and NOT Blame.

Secondly, I'm talking about you jumping off QR to Blame.  Even before the JCGC, you were still hyping QR.  I know cause our "discussion" at the time were about me posting that QR was a pure miler and you and Draynay and Ranagulzion were blasting me for saying such a thing.  In the end, we found out who was right.  I wouldn't argue with you about anything Zenyatta because we all know that you would pick a 25K claiming horse against Zenyatta.  We all know how you "love" Zenyatta.

It's funny now that Zenyatta has won the HOTY award, you're saying it's not an important award when all of last year when I was saying that this award is tainted and that it really doesn't mean anything, you tell me I don't know anything about horse racing, insults my handicapping and tells me to learn more about horse racing.  I bet if Blame had won, you'd glorify this award like it's the most important award in ALL of horseracing.  So again, we're back to being "objective" right ?

For the record, Zenyatta would beat Blame in a match race any day, and on any surface like it's a workout.

22 Jan 2011 9:42 AM
Jason Shandler

Again Jayjay, thanks for the money. It was much appreciated. Nothing like free cash around the holidays. Jaxson says thank you as well. Santa Jayjay was very good to him this year. Until next time...

22 Jan 2011 9:45 AM
Forbidden Apple

I agree with you 100% JayJay, I remember clearly last year when Ranagulzion, Draynay, Saratoga AJ and others were claiming Q. Road to be the champion of the century. And that was after he beat Dry Martini in the Donn. I was saying then that Q.R. loved the Gulfstream speed favoring dragstrip and that he should focus on racing at 1 mile. And then he lost to Blame who was under a hand ride in the Whitney, then he beat the legendary Mythical Power in the Woodward in a blazing fast 1:50. After running against a bunch of allownces horses in the Woodward, I do remember Jason being on the fence about who to pick in the B.C. Classic. I love Zenyatta, but still had to play the exacta with Blame on top. It's funny how Rachel skipped the Classic 2 years in a row, Q.R. could not even relax enough to enter the gate in 2009, and then in 2010 he finished last by more than 35 lengths. Zenyatta won the L. Classic in 2008, the B.C. Classic in 2009, and came from 18 lengths back to run second by a head in the 2010 B.C. Classic. Yet after all of that and being a 13 time Grade I winner she still gets no respect from some people.

22 Jan 2011 11:24 AM
Mike Relva

JASON

Yes,you stated Blame was better prior to the S.F. that's correct. You beat me and others on selection for the Classic. That's a fact. But,you also picked Zenyatta to finish fourth and after the it was over stated Blame was winning the HOY. Blame's a very good horse,but not even in Zenyatta's zip code when it comes to creating excitement among the racing public and bringing new fans in. Al Stall stated Blame had the perfect trip,while Zenyatta was over twenty back,as I said to you earlier not by design. Will never believe Blame would best her many times if they raced. Have to hand it to you,you picked the winner. But weren't you at least a little suprised that Zenyatta won HOY? Something that's important is years from now which horse will be remembered?

22 Jan 2011 11:29 AM
Draynay

jayjay, for your information I was there that day and saw Blame pull away AGAIN from Zenyatta and out ran her from the wire for another 500 yards.  Zenyatta couldn't catch him at the wire and STILL couldn't catch him 500 yards past the wire.  Zenyatta wasn't good enough.  Just like I always said she wasn't.  Rachel was a real HOY. Post what she did next to what Zenyatta did this year and it's laughable.  For most Blame is the real HOY. He won it on the track.

22 Jan 2011 12:22 PM
jayjay

Again, you're welcome.  I'm glad you spent it on Jaxson and not lose it at the track!    You don't have to bet me, if I win another big one, I'll send him an early christmas present (and I trust you would spend it on him) and not bet on Draynay's picks LOL.

22 Jan 2011 1:35 PM
Footlick

I'll be back when this topic is done.  Have fun, guys.

22 Jan 2011 1:38 PM
Jason Shandler

Mike: I could care less about HOY. If her winning the award is what it took to make the fanatics feel better about her loss than Im glad it helped. For me, it's all about what happens on the track. Blame beat Zenyatta where it mattered most, and that will NEVER change. That Classic replay will be played forever. That, and not some silly award, will be remember more than anything. Blame will always be remebered as the better horse.

22 Jan 2011 1:42 PM
Draynay

Mike, get over it.  Zenyatta PROVED she just wasn't that good.  She caught the perfect tiring track and couldn't get the job done.  Dakota Phone was 15 lengths back going just a mile and got the job done but Zenyatta was not good enough.  Had she caught a speed favoring track she wouldn't have finished in the top 5.

22 Jan 2011 1:44 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

Say what you will,but she gave Blame EVERYTHING he wanted in that race,not bad for a horse you picked to finish FOURTH.

22 Jan 2011 1:50 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

You need to get over it,if I were you I wouldn't say anything after your QR finished LAST after your hype of what he would do.....LAST!!

22 Jan 2011 1:51 PM
Draynay

Come on Mike post the great races won by Zenyatta last year and I will post the races won by Quality Road like THE DONN, THE MET MILE, THE WOODWARD.  Now, post those great poly races won by Zenyatta last year.

Lol.

22 Jan 2011 2:51 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Like you say about Zenyatta,who did QR beat? Nothing you say changes anything,Zenyatta is the HOY. lol   You and others' are on the outside looking in w/ Blame.

22 Jan 2011 5:25 PM
stevebiscuit

Jason, that last sentence you wrote actually make me laugh out loud.

"Blame will always be remebered as the better horse."

Seriously, after just one race in which Blame won by a desperate head over his home track you're declaring him outright the better horse? I won't disagree that he was the better horse on that day and had the better trip, but the better horse? Such ridiculous statements make me wonder what kind of expertise it takes to work for the Blood Horse. I guess on the list of top 100 racehorses they should replace Man O' War with Upset, Secretariat with Onion, Citation with Noor, Kelso with Gun Bow, Native Dancer with Dark Star, Seattle Slew with Exceller, Spectacular Bid with Coastal, Cigar with Dare and Go, Stagehand for Seabiscuit and so on. As a handicapper, I thought you'd understand that one race doesn't make or break a horse. Do you honestly think 30 years from now people will compare Blame and Zenyatta and say Blame was clearly the better horse? Don't be surprised if his name is forgotten by then. Zenyatta's greatness will live forever while Blame will at best become the answer to a trivia question.

22 Jan 2011 5:36 PM
jayjay

Draynay : Just like in the TC races, you showed how much you know about horse racing.  I have never taken you seriously, I think Jason,  Billy and 2:24 are the only ones that pay attention to you and takes you seriously.  It's just fun to pick on  you, that's pretty much the extent of your existence on this blog as far as I'm concerned.   Case in point, QR is that every 30 year horse you said...I bet you no one will remember QR 2 years from now.  While Zenyatta, will haunt you on these blogs forever LOL.

Jason :  You still don't get it, my point was your MAIN horse was QR ALL YEAR, you crowned him the beast of the east.  Prior to the Whitney, you were on QR and even after, you never said anything about how you thought Blame was better.  I don't doubt you thought Blame was a good horse, but admit the fact that you were on QR's back like white on rice all year and it wasn't until the very end that you switched to picking Blame over QR.

Also, I swear you drilled me last year about the importance of this award.  I'm quite sure about it.  Like I said, if they had given it to Blame, you'd glorify it.  It just makes me laugh how much you loathe anything Zenyatta and you would go back on your beliefs when it has anything to do with Zenyatta.  I still don't think the award means anything, I actually wish they had given it to Blame because the poor owner really really really wanted it.    The only thing that really got me all laughing is that after you and the other said it will be no contest, a landslide win for Blame, that she ended up having 128 over 102 first place votes, and I would have to guess that some of that 128 are what used to be the biased east coast writers...which she turned to believers :)

22 Jan 2011 7:22 PM
Mike Relva

STEVEBISCUIT

That's exactly correct,that's what Blame will be remembered for,a trivia question.  He's a very good horse,but like Bill Nack said,"not a great one". He will never get into the HOF. Zenyatta took the racing world by storm,not Blame.

22 Jan 2011 7:27 PM
Jason Shandler

Stevebiscuit: He beat her head-to-head in their only matchup and recorded wins in the Clark, Stephen, Foster, and Whitney, three races that are much more prestigious than anything the mare ever won, save the 2009 Classic. Can't dispute facts.

Zealots will remember the undefeated record against underwhelming fillies in California (with the exception of a couple races), 60 Minutes, Oprah, and all of the popularity. Racing historians will point to facts. They never lie.

Buffalo Bills fans still say they were better than the NY Giants in 1990. "If Scott Norwood didn't ..." they say. Trouble is, he did miss the kick and the Giants will always have the trophy. Patriots fans say they were the better team in 2008. "We wree undefeated and the Giants got were lucky" they say. Trouble is, the Giants are holding the trophy.

I hate using two examples of the Giants, who I cant stand, but they were the first two analogies that popped into my head. You get my point: History is decided by what happens on the field or on the racetrack, not who was more popular. Blame won bigger races and beat her head-to-head. Facts are facts.

22 Jan 2011 7:27 PM
Jason Shandler

I'l repeat Jayjay: I said Blame was a better horse than Zenyatta BEFORE the Stephen Foster, BEFORE he even won a garde I. I liked QR, yes, but that's why you dont pick races until the last day. You take all factors into consideration before choosing. It's called handicapping. Now, for people like you that watch the pretty horses walk around the paddock and pick numbers from a board, that may not matter. To people like me, you wait until the end to decide.

Let's not dance around the main facts: I picked Blame, you picked the loser, and you paid me money.

22 Jan 2011 7:32 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

It's true Blame did what he had to in the Classic. But,can you say I'm wrong regarding Blame getting into the HOF? Don't see it happening. Monday nite,I noticed what the owner of Blind Luck (a filly that traveled everywhere last yr) stated regarding Zenyatta-that he never seen a horse like her. I'm sorry Jason but when I hear over and over people in the industry declare Zenyatta once in a lifetime,"Superhorse",etc it's hard to discount that.

22 Jan 2011 7:40 PM
Jason Shandler

Who cares about the racing HOY Mike? Jerry Hollendorfer isnt in the HOY. How much credibility can it have?

22 Jan 2011 7:54 PM
jayjay

it's funny how you keep mentioning that money.  It's a 100.00 dude, does it really tickle you that much lol?  I've lost way more than that on bets, it doesn't bug me.  If we have to compare handicapping skills, my tally for last year is about 27K winnings (and I can back it up with the IRS signoffs), I'm dreading it because I'll get nailed in taxes this year.   I think besides the 100.00 you won from me...I don't remember you hitting anything significant other than that First Dude bet you had which was for what 11K ?   I'll stick to my "watching the pretty horses walk around the paddock and picking numbers from a board" handicapping style.   I can afford it LOL.

Oh wait, you didn't bet that First Dude bet…oh well.

LOL on the "picked the loser" comment.  Let's see, your pick beat my "loser" but my loser beat your "pick" for HOTY...how does that work ??  

22 Jan 2011 8:02 PM
Mike Relva

Hollendorfer not in the HOF isn't right.

22 Jan 2011 8:07 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

Off the subject,what do you think of Dialed In? Also,THAS???

22 Jan 2011 8:10 PM
Jason Shandler

I keep mentioning the money because you wont leave it alone. You were wrong, I was right. Just admit it and we can stop.

As far as you winning $27k last year, lol. Just because you put (I can back it up with IRS stubs) in parenthesis doesnt mean for 3 seconds that I or anyone on here believes you. We've all seen your handicapping. I dont recall you ever picking a winner. I put my picks out there every day for people like you to rip apart. Im ok with that. You have no idea how much I win or lose at the track each weekend. I wouldnt sit here and brag if I did win $27k either. It's like someone telling you how much money they make at their job, just isnt done. Again, I brought up our bet several times only because you keep trying to rewrite history. I won money off a lot of other people on this blog too but I never bring it up because they dont keep trying to make excuses. She lost dude. Get over it. Maybe Moss will let you hug the HOY trophy one day. Would that would make you happy? The award shouldnt mean anything except to the connections. Claiborne got the prize money and the grade I win. The rest doesnt matter.

22 Jan 2011 8:13 PM
Jason Shandler

...Oh, and by the way, I took the $100 I won from you, played it on lottery tickets and won $3 million. I have IRS stubs to back it up. Everyone on here believes me right?

22 Jan 2011 8:22 PM
jayjay

LOL, I'm the one that kept saying that award doesn't mean anything, you were the one that kept saying it's the most important award of the year.  Now that  your pick lost it, it suddenly doesn't mean anything.

I can back it up, I don't recall you picking any winners other than favorites.  Picking a longshot and not betting it doesn't really mean anything.  I put my picks out there as well, I don't claim to be the king of handicappers like someone else does but when I do hit, I hit big.    I really could care less if you believe me or not, the fact is, I don't think you've picked anything that you actually made money from.  I guess if you want to claim to be the better handicapper, that's fine, I'll take my wins over yours any day :)

I'm over the HOTY, the results showed my pick was the best horse.  You're the one that can't stop talking about it because you're pretty miffed your pick lost.

22 Jan 2011 9:16 PM
Jason Shandler

Have better things to do than to go back and forth with an obsessed fan. She's at Lane's End now, I'm sure you'll get to pet her one day.

22 Jan 2011 9:33 PM
jayjay

Agreed.  I'm glad you finally saw the light and got over it :)  I can only hope I get the privilege to pet her one day.  I wish you get some time with your beloved Blame, but something tells me, you probably won't have time for him since he's probably not worth any blog time now that he's lost the HOTY award.

22 Jan 2011 9:43 PM
Tom F V

Wow Jason, your responses show this guy is getting to you a little bit.

Freudian slip?

"Who cares about the racing HOY Mike? Jerry Hollendorfer isnt in the HOY. How much credibility can it have?

jshandler 22 Jan 2011 7:54 PM"

"The award shouldnt mean anything except to the connections.

jshandler 22 Jan 2011 8:13 PM"

It shouldn't, but obviously it means something to people, pro and con, see above.

:) Plus all of the vitriol from both sides of those with no real stake in it. Most of whom are outside of the game itself.

Are we going to be required to scan our W2's W2G's 1099's, 5474's etc onto this site to prove credibility? Sorry couldn't help myself. :)

I do recall, and I don't blame you, a blog where you were having a lot of angst over not following your gut and losing a bunch of money on a bet.  Most gamblers exaggerate.  No gambler ever loses, right?  

I'll bet I made a lot more on race horses and prospects than either of you did.  Ha ha ha!

22 Jan 2011 9:46 PM
stevebiscuit

Well I hope racing historians do a little more research than just looking at the names of the races he won. Sure, he won the Stephen Foster, but who was he running against? Battle Plan, who was injured in mid-stretch? I made some money on his win in the Whitney simply because I had a feeling Quality Road had peaked and was beginning to recede in form. John Velazquez said after the race that he wasn't responding in the stretch. Plus, I'm sure the 5 lbs made some difference. So Blame was all out to run down a very below par Quality Road. I won't go into the Classic because I don't feel like writing 5000 words, but I think Al Stall Jr said it best, "...I'm not saying we're a better horse than Zenyatta, but on that particular day we did win the biggest prize". He couldn't be more right.

22 Jan 2011 9:47 PM
Tom F V

"..Oh, and by the way, I took the $100 I won from you, played it on lottery tickets and won $3 million. I have IRS stubs to back it up. Everyone on here believes me right?

jshandler 22 Jan 2011 8:22 PM"

At least he didn't welch on the bet, that's something.

I believe you, you're on vacation again aren't you? LOL

22 Jan 2011 9:49 PM
stevebiscuit

It is kinda funny Jason that now you say the Eclipse Awards don't mean anything when earlier you were touting Todd Pletcher for all of the awards he's won. I guess they only mean nothing when your team doesn't win.

22 Jan 2011 9:52 PM
Tom F V

Transposition issue, meant 5754, gotta cover those frontman bets and the syndicates...

22 Jan 2011 10:00 PM
Ranagulzion

Footlick,

Most times the great horses of yesteryear become larger than life in comparing them with present stars.  I appreciate Miesque as a phenomenal miler but i do believe that Goldikova's turn of foot when making her winning bid is absolutely incredible. She literally takes off like a shot from a gun and is capable of reeling in rival including the immortal Miesque IMO.  Goldi is better than brilliant and I don't have to wait a decade after she's retired to appreciate it.

22 Jan 2011 10:17 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- luckily I appreciated Miesque when she was running.   We differ on our assessment.

22 Jan 2011 10:28 PM
Footlick

By the way- Miesque's peers considered her larger than life.

22 Jan 2011 10:29 PM
Jason Shandler

Take care my good friends Steve, Tom, and Jayjay. Off to Florida...

22 Jan 2011 11:09 PM
Footlick

Have fun in the sun, Jason

23 Jan 2011 12:27 AM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

Please,Miesque is every bit the horse Goldie is. I didn't "wait a decade to appreciate" her.

23 Jan 2011 3:04 PM
jayjay

Now there's a privilege, "good friend" !

Enjoy your vacation bud, hope you hit the big one in sun.  

23 Jan 2011 3:46 PM
Householder

Your fooling yourself if you think Blame was a better horse.  Someone sure loaded the weight on Zenyatta (126-129 lbs!) for those "cup cake" wars in in California.  The fact of the matter is Zenyatta closed 20 lengths on Blame and probably still ran the last 8th in 12 sec or under.  History is always right.  9 consecutive grade one wins...which is about 6 more than Blame.  You don't get to "down grade" the race based on what you think the competition was.  Get back to me on where horses like Dry Martini are now. Was she better that day?...perhaps.  Was she a better horse in 2010...yes according, not to fans who have been told time and time again their vote does not matter, but people in the industry.  I think was should be said is not that HOY does not matter but the Breeder's Cup Classic does not matter.  Ask the last 3 winners of HOY.  

24 Jan 2011 1:11 PM
jayjay

Not to put down Goldi but Miesque was running the Breeder's Cup Mile races when turf racing was still the top races.  She was running against the top male turf horses at the time.  I don't think Goldikova has beaten a top rated turf horse here in the US nor in Europe but again, I've been wrong a billion times before hehe.  Someone correct me and I'll put a lid on it lol.

24 Jan 2011 5:15 PM
Draynay

Householder, where do I even begin with you ? Horse racing is on DIRT or Turf.  95% of all horses run ON DIRT OR TURF.  Zenyatta was the champ of the other 5% who cares ?  She won nothing on dirt.  One race vs. mares who cares.  Blame won some of the very best races there are.  Zenyatta was a state poly champion. The minute she stepped up she lost. 20 lengths back and she was never in the race. She made it close but she really had no chance of winning. She couldn't get by Blame.  Dakota Phone showed you how to do it but you haven't mentioned him once have you?  Dakota Phone was the amazing one that day along with Blame.  Zenyatta was just another horse that day that wasn't good enough.

24 Jan 2011 5:30 PM
Footlick

jayjay-I agree but we all have our opinions on Miesque/Goldikova.  I feel Miesque ran against tougher competition.  Others may differ.  It took Goldikova an extra year of racing to reach and then pass Miesque's gr 1 tallies.  Miesque ran better in the Diane, which was much farther than she wanted to run, than Goldikova did, which was also much farther than she wanted to run.  I would rate Zarkava above Indian Skimmer, but the milers that Miesque ran against were probably of a higher cloass than the ones Goldikova has had to run against.  All you have to do is look up the lists of horses each defeated and judge for yourself.  It is just one opinion against another and nothing is written in stone.

As far as putting a lid on it, since another person never has to do so, why should you ; )

24 Jan 2011 6:45 PM
In aint easy being good!

I agree with Draynay Zenyatta couldnt get it done she reminds me of the new england patriots these days choke artist! Zenyatta  had a good career but doesnt belong in the top 5. Besides being a poly specialist what big race has she won??? Isnt this blog about uncle mo anyways. Wow Jason is fired up today his last comment was classic. Dranay get off the uncle mo bandwagon if you know whats good for you! I warned you about QR and have the same feeling about MO!

24 Jan 2011 7:03 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

It's killing you,turn the page. lol

24 Jan 2011 8:57 PM
Draynay

Uncle Mo is the best 2 year old I have ever seen and the fastest.  Horses like this come along every 30 years or so.  How fast will he be as a 3 year old?  I think he will be faster than Big Brown.  It is hard to believe he has any distance concerns when he is beating horses by 10 lengths at a mile.  He could run the last quarter a full second slow and still win by 5.

24 Jan 2011 9:40 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, if Blame was so much better than Zenyatta, why did he only win by a head? And don't use the excuse that she never passed him. There is evidence in both photos and videos that show Zenyatta getting her nose in front a couple of strides past the wire. And even if she didn't pass him, who cares? Zenyatta knows where the wire is and has a reputation for slowing down after she crosses it. I'm sure Blame does the same thing.

You know what? To hell with it! If Al Stall's comment that Blame isn't as good as Zenyatta isn't enough to convince Draynay, nothing will.

24 Jan 2011 10:58 PM
Footlick

It would be nice if everybody would turn the page ; )

25 Jan 2011 10:24 AM
Householder

Draynay

Most Memorable 2010 Breeder's Cup Moments.

I would have to say Dakota Phone.  Hollendorfer sent 3 horses with 1 being scratched.  Dakota Phone wins the mile with Blind Luck placing.  Does the guy just not put his horses where they can be competitive?  D-Phone has been mixing it up in all the big races in CA but coming up short against Rail Trip and the likes.  A little cut back in distance and one cashes a $50.00 win ticket.  

Householder Nov 12 2010 5:31

25 Jan 2011 12:59 PM
Draynay

Stevebiscuit, what don't you understand?  Zenyatta lost ! Blame won in a hand ride home while Zenyatta was whipped again and again. Blame proved ON THE TRACK he was the better horse.  And stop with the made up nonsense that she ever passed him.  What is wrong with you people?  I was THERE AT THE FINISH LINE AND THE TAPE DOESN'T lie either.  She didn't pass him 50 yards or 500 yards past the wire.  She wasn't good enough.  She should have stayed in California beating up on horse we never heard of on synthetic tracks.

25 Jan 2011 2:04 PM
Footlick

Get on topic people.  You are just fueling Draynay's obsession with attention.

25 Jan 2011 10:34 PM
Forbidden Apple

Draynay,

Dakota Phone is nothing but a plastic horse from CA. He got lucky to run the race of his life on B.C. day against a weak field. I can not see him making any noise this year, he's a one hit wonder.

You do need new glasses, Blame was not in a hand ride in the B.c. Classic. Gomez was all out and whipping his horse repeatedly, your view is distorted with hatred towards a 13 time Grade I winner. Zenyatta has more Graded wins than Blame and Quarter Crack Road combined. Zenyatta is the legendary horse that will be immortalized in the Hall of Fame!

26 Jan 2011 9:36 AM
Householder

9 consecutive Grade 1 wins.  Not races that someone made up for Zenyatta, changing the distances and days they were ran for her benefit.  Smiling Tiger won one less grade 1 than Blame and he was a 3 year old!  No one seems to be talking about his BC effort. The fact of the matter is Blame lost and lost bad to Haynesfield.  Sorry you can't change history.  Then he needed to dominate Zenyatta.  Why not win by 5-10 lengths.  The fact of the matter is he could not put away a 6 year old female "poly specialist."  He will be remembered right up there with the horse that ended Cigar's win streak.  What was his name?  

26 Jan 2011 3:00 PM
jayjay

Footlick : I'm not sure how to read your reply to me.  I think we're saying the same thing though, that Miesque ran against much better top rated male turf horses during her time than Goldi did (or doing).

I just recently watched her 88 BC Mile race and that was and impressive race, more impressive is her 87 Mile which she just blew past Shadow Dancer at the top of the stretch and just pulled away.

Draynay : You also said last year how anyone can question QR getting 10F when he's beating horses by a mile running 8.5 and 9F in blazing fast time.   Did you watch the BC Classic last year ? LOL

26 Jan 2011 3:37 PM
Footlick

jayjay- Yes we are saying the same thing about Miesque.  And what I meant to say is that you don't ever have to put a lid on it.  There are a few who should, but you aren't one of them.  You are also right in the fact that just because a horse can get 9 furlongs does not mean they will get 10 furlongs.  That last furlong has been the undoing of many a horse.  It is a fallacy to think that just because a horse can run a strong 9 furlongs means he can get the extra furlong.  In top company it doesn't always work out.

27 Jan 2011 12:20 AM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Nobody cares what you think about Zenyatta.

27 Jan 2011 10:42 AM
Mike Relva

HOUSEHOLDER/JAYJAY

I agree,being saying for a year QR was great,but distance limitations.

Dray lives in his own little fantasy world,he would tell you a twenty five yr old horse could beat Zenyatta. lol

28 Jan 2011 11:34 AM
hughey

uncle mo has no shot and will not get a sniff of derby glory.u heard it here first.

02 Feb 2011 5:30 PM
Draynay

It appears Zenyatta had problems getting 1 1/4 on dirt too.

03 Feb 2011 5:20 PM
Householder

Yes it appears that Zenyatta had problems getting 1 1/4 as her last 1/8th mile was pretty pedestrian.  Did you mean to say Quality Road?  We could have told you that BEFORE the race and saved you some money.

04 Feb 2011 2:15 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

The only problem is how many times your wrong and try to walk away from it. She lost by a friggen head to 4yr old who was used to that track. Looks like your QR had bigger problems. lol Keep living in your fantasy world by listening to your voodoo way of picking horses!

04 Feb 2011 6:05 PM
Draynay

Funny thing.  My win ticket on Quality Road was worth just as much as your win ticket on Zenyatta.

06 Feb 2011 1:48 AM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

She beat every horse but one. The owner of Blind Luck stated at the awards,in his five decades of racing,he's NEVER seen a mare like Zenyatta. This comes from a cardiac surgeon. Somehow hearing this from someone like him has far greater merit than your tired anti Zenyatta rants!

07 Feb 2011 5:20 PM
Draynay

She lost Mike.  Let it go.  She just wasn't good enough.  She was a great horse in California.  Outside of California... not so great.

07 Feb 2011 9:24 PM
Tom F V

No Draynay, YOU need to let it go.

The people who make the decisions have made them. People like you who continue to rant against the mare are certainly no friend to racing.

The mare accomplished more in the BC than any other mare/female.  What other mare even managed SECOND in a Classic, if you want to continue your ridiculous assertion that winning it on synthetics doesn't count?

Face it your next coming of Secretariat LAST YEAR, finished so badly that a lot of people are questioning it.

Your NEW "better than Secretariat" colt?  Wait until he accomplishes something more as a 3 year old.

08 Feb 2011 11:12 AM
Draynay

Well Tom F V so far he has only run as a 2 year old and since there are many that ALSO ran at 2 I can compare them.  At 2 Uncle Mo is as good or better than any I have seen.  What he does at 3 will take all year to analyze but as a 2 year old Uncle Mo is better in my opinion than Seattle Slew or Secretariat.  

08 Feb 2011 5:20 PM
Tom F V

You're always one to weigh the competition of current horses, that's what you have to do with horses from the past as well. What is/was the level of horses those from the past ran against vs what horses of the present are running against?

Secretariat is held in esteem for exactly what you are discounting. What he did as a three year old. Precocious two year olds often get caught up to in maturity, growth and ability.  There are and have been any number of horses who everyone raved about as two year olds and just didn't pan out, remember Favorite Trick.

This is Triple Crown Talk, the comparison right now is way off, if you ask me. Hold them in their own esteem and stead.

Wait until you can actually make the comparison between them, if you ever can because the Triple Crown trail takes a super horse with just the right circumstances and in most cases a lot of luck.

08 Feb 2011 9:02 PM
Mike Relva

TOM F V

You nailed it! Some people kill me.

09 Feb 2011 4:11 PM
draynay

Tom, I can only lead you to water.  I can't make you drink.

10 Feb 2011 1:05 AM
Tom F V

That's pretty funny. Have you ever led a horse at all? Fact is have you ever even seen one take a drink of water?  

Literal, figuratively or an analogy you are basically unaware of what makes a great horse other than what you 'pick' (because others are telling you they're great), read about or watch the odds on.

10 Feb 2011 2:19 PM
JOHN

Calvin Bo-Rail will win the Kentucky Derby!!

11 Feb 2011 6:13 PM
Dave R.

The existing graded earnings criteria for the KY Derby needs to be changed.  The 2 yr old graded earnings should be still be counted, but to a lesser extent (say only 25-50%) compared to 3 yr old graded earnings.  This would force the trainers and owners to actually RUN their Derby hopefuls rather than just train their horses with 2 yr old earnings that are high enough to qualify for the Derby.  Not running the horses makes for boring pre-Derby preps, reduces fan interest, and possibly results in unfit horses entering the gate in the KY Derby.    

17 Feb 2011 8:13 AM

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