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Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

276 Comments

For small-time Thoroughbred race owners, the chances of picking out one graded stakes winner is slim. To do it a second time is even rarer. And to do it a third time is unheard of, especially if you are only buying one horse per year.

Apparently, Chris Walters doesn't know how hard this sport really is because he is making it look ridiculously easy.

Walters, who is only 30, has picked out one weanling for his father, Tom, for the last five years. In 2004 they bought Elite Squadron (Officer-Sweet Mama, by High Brite) privately and four years later he wound up winning the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) on Kentucky Derby Day. In 2009 Elite Squadron was retired and now stands at Wintergreen Stallion Station near Midway, Ky.

In 2006 they bought the filly Pretty Prolific (Lion Heart-Seattle Way, by Seattle Slew) privately from Paget Bloodstock. She won three times for them including last year's Sugar Swirl Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. She was later retired and is now at Ashford Stud near Versailles, Ky.

Liking the results they saw from Paget, the Walters went back to the well in 2008 and bought Santiva (Giant's Causeway-Slide, by Smarten). The colt showed promise from the very start of his career by running second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland and in his last start won the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) at Churchill. With the $180,000 in graded earnings he has already accumulated, Santiva is now a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.

Is this game really that easy?

"We buy one horse per year, we're not a big operation," said Tom Walters, who is in the insurance business and lives in Franklin, Indiana, about 20 miles south of Indianapolis. "So far, with Chris' help, we've done pretty well."

Ya think?

The elder Walters has owned Quarter Horses and Thoroughbreds for most of his adult life. It wasn't until Chris graduated college and started helping him out that things started to get exciting.

"He obviously has a good eye for horses," Walters said. "He must get that from my father, who was in the livestock business for many years. I guess it skips a generation.

"Chris understands pedigree very well. He is a student of it, just like a stockbroker studies the market. I wish I could tell you there was more to it. But it is what it is. We've been very fortunate to have three good horses."

Santiva is the most exciting of the three since he showed so much promise as a juvenile and is a very real Derby threat. The bay colt began his career in the barn of Ken McPeek, where he ran third in his debut at Saratoga behind Wine Police and Soldat, and then second to J.B.'s Thunder on the turf. The Walters' then moved Santiva to the barn of Todd Pletcher where he proceeded to run second again, this time in the Breeders' Futurity, also behind J. B.'s Thunder.

In October, the Walters' decided to move their colt once again, this time to Eddie Kenneally. It was Kenneally who saddled him for the Kentucky Jockey Club when he defeated Astrology by a half-length.

"It just wasn't the right fit," said Walters when asked why Santiva was moved from McPeek and Pletcher. "It's not like I change trainers all the time; I had James Baker for eight years. I love Kenny and Todd, but I just thought Eddie was a better fit. He has a smaller stable than those guys."

With the Kentucky Jockey Club win in the books, Santiva went down to Palm Meadows with Kenneally. After getting some time off he recently started training again, having recorded two official works this month. On Thursday he breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5. They have yet to pick out a spot for Santiva's return but Kenneally said it is likely to be next month.

"We're in no hurry, especially since he has about $180,000 in graded earnings," Walters said. "We're going to take our time with him. We want him to be racing as a 3, 4, even a 5-year-old. We're not going to get caught up in the (Derby) hype. He's in good hands with Eddie.

"I think when you only have one horse you tend to protect him more."

FYI: I am on vacation next week and will return the week of Jan. 31. Play nice while I'm gone, and if you are at Gulfstream on Saturday, Jan. 29 come find me. I will be the one at the IRS window--begging for money.

 

276 Comments:

Have fun at the Millions Jason!! Great story on Santiva!! get that kid a job for the Sheik!!

Billy's Empire 21 Jan 2011 3:18 PM

Jason I hope you have a great vacation and thanks for this piece.  BTW are you designating a guest blogger?  How can we play nice if we can play on TCT??

I will be rooting for the Walters horse. Maybe someone ought to hire young Chris to pick a horse for them too.   180K in graded earnings huh, wow.  

Speaking of this do you have a guess as to what figure it will take to make the 20 cut for this years KD?  was it not an all time high last year? I forget -  

There are some nice precocious colts what do you all think the minimum get in $ will be?

Zen's Auntie 21 Jan 2011 3:29 PM

I think it's a bit early to know how much it will take this year Zen. The number seems to fluctuate considerably every year.

As far as a guest blogger, I didn't really ask because Im not going to have much time to post comments. But if anyone has a good topic they want to email me I am open to changing my mind.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2011 3:33 PM

Not following you to the betting windows Shandler. ...

JerseyTom 21 Jan 2011 4:00 PM

Oh listen just enjoy your vacation. I was just thinking how much I enjoyed Gun Bows last Guest blog and Keelermans too  but did not mean you should take on work over vacation.  

I went back and read your write up an pp on the Tobaggan again and I still dont get it - at all. why would Repole and Pletcher pit these two nice runners again against each other when possibly It looks likely to me)  they could each acheive wins separately.  Is it lack of appropriate other races to enter?  do they run best against each other? whats the angle?

the coupled ticket is chalk and I see they did this before but I dont understand it.  

Can someone explain this to me?

Zen's Auntie 21 Jan 2011 4:25 PM

Pick me Jason pick me.  I have a great topic about horse racing giving into pressure and giving a big award to a horse that didn't deserve it.

Draynay 21 Jan 2011 4:40 PM

Jason,

I'd like to do an article on U.S.-Soviet relations during the Nixon administration if people are interested.

Ted from LA 21 Jan 2011 5:42 PM

By the way, is it just me or does Jason take more vacations than George W. Bush and Barack Obama combined?

Ted from LA 21 Jan 2011 5:43 PM

Have a good vacation and hope you cash big!

Footlick 21 Jan 2011 5:58 PM

Nice article on Santiva, currently #2 on my Derby forcast list.  This colt has good speed and stamina laiden pedigree, and has already advertised that pace, rateability and fighting quality inherited from his sire Giants Causeway.  It will be interesting to see which jockey gets the assignment.  I would love to see Edgar Prado get the call on this one although Shaun Bridgmohan did a pretty good job in the Kentucky Jockey Club Cup.  The trainer switch from Todd Pletcher to Eddie Kenneally was interesting and I like the fact that they are not rushing his preparation.  Interesting days ahead.

Ranagulzion 21 Jan 2011 6:06 PM

Have a great vacation.  Wish I was there with you.  Not only for the company, but also warmer weather BURRRRRRR!  What a nice story - like to hear about the little people striking it rich.  Just proves you don't need millions or sheiks backing you to get to the top.  Just a good eye for horse flesh and knowledge of pedigree.  I hope the connections continue in their winning ways - maybe even to the First Saturday in May.

Robin from Maryland 21 Jan 2011 6:24 PM

I don't think Santiva will have much say in the Triple Crown Races.

Zenyatta John 21 Jan 2011 6:45 PM

Hi, Jason,

This isn't actually anything about Santiva (although I'm a fan of any Giants Causeway son), but I don't know how else to contact you.  You wrote the last article I've been able to find about Thorn Song (almost a year ago) and I'm just wondering how he is doing or if he relapsed.  I guess I'm just hoping that he's better and that stem cell therapy might actually offer a real hope against laminitis.  Thanks in advance if you can find any answers.

Have fun in the warm from those of us in the land of minus too darn many degrees.

Jean in Chicago 21 Jan 2011 7:18 PM

See you there Jason. I'll be the one standing in front of you going through several signers. I usually hang out on the first level where that huge bar is adjacent to the paddock. Stop by and I'll get you a drink.

The Rock 21 Jan 2011 7:34 PM

Jason:

Thanks again for the info.  The switch to Eddie Kenneally reveals that the Walters obviously know what they want for their horse: a little more personal attention.

No knocking the big stables but the Walters want a horse thay can race at 5.  They'll let the horse tell them.  I wish them all the luck.  Santiva's a good one.

Have a nice vacation Jason.  Bring some some screen and may the horse be with you.  

trackjack 21 Jan 2011 8:36 PM

Good luck to the Walters and Mr.  Kenneally.  I don't blame them for moving the horse to a stable where he will be the top Triple Crown candidate. Competing for attention  with Uncle Mo in the barn would be tough.

I love Giant's Causeway and hope Santiva is successful and racing through five as Mr. Walter said.  Not too many triple crown campaigned horses do.

Good luck, Jason!  Enjoy the weather and the racing!

skyfire 21 Jan 2011 8:38 PM

          Hello Jason ! I hope

you've had a good Holiday season :) Now on to the Derby Trail ! The way I see it if Uncle Mo falters due to injury ( I hope not ) or just goes off form , I have a good feeling that To Honour and Serve will be there to pick up the pieces ! I hope they all stay safe and sound for the Derby Preps !

Pedigree Shelly 21 Jan 2011 9:31 PM

DRAYNAY

No one wants to hear your redundant tired subject material,you need to move on or cry to Seth!

Mike Relva 21 Jan 2011 11:03 PM

RANAGULZION

Since you mentioned the trainer swith,like I've said "bro" not everyone believes Pletcher is the end all. This horse holds promise.

Mike Relva 21 Jan 2011 11:06 PM

Jean: I did ask Mr. Zayat about Thorn Song when we spoke this week. He said he is doing well. We didnt get into specifics but he said he is happy and healthy.

Thanks everyone for the well wishes. I will try to post comments as often as possible.

Jason Shandler 21 Jan 2011 11:07 PM

Sounds to me like Jason is on a "working" vacation!  Enjoy the sun and frosty drinks!  Bring plenty of SPF 30.

Must be nice to buy three horses and have three stakes winners.  Who needs Buzz Chase??

Trebloc 22 Jan 2011 1:10 AM

Does time fly or was Miesque really 27? Any talk about all time greatest milers would include this mare--in my opinion better than Goldikova--better kick, maybe the greatest milers kick of them all--Miesque!

Matthew W 22 Jan 2011 1:27 AM

Ranagulzion,

Is Santiva really second on your list? He is not on my list. The owners are doing the right by not rushing him as horses sired by Giants Causeway, Unbridleds Song and Tapit are very soft. His Derby winning prospect is very remote. His pedigree does not fit into the Derby winner’s chart. In addition to this, the filly Kathmanblu recorded a faster time in the Golden Rod on the same day for the same distance. It is not a good sign when a filly runs faster than colts. In 2009 the great Rachel Alexandra recorded a faster time in the Golden Rod than the boys. None of those colts figured n the Triple Crown races.

The retired Storm Cat and his over one hundred plus sons have never sired a horse that has carried the roses laden garland on the 1st Saturday in May. Giant’s Causeway has been an over bred stallion from day one. My records reflect that over bred stallions are not producers of winner of Triple Crown races. His broodmare was sired by Smarten a grandson of Turn-To. Stop The Music a grandson of Turn-To was the dam sire of Derby winner Giacamo so I guess there is some derby history on the dam side. It is unlikely that Smarten will appear as Derby winning broodmare sire with at Storm Cat stallion.

He is a nice colt that should be kept out of harm’s way.

Coldfacts 22 Jan 2011 8:17 AM

CAN THE RAISE A NATIVE SIRE LINE BE STOPPED?

Coldfacts 22 Jan 2011 8:21 AM

Can we leave the Eclipse debate in the past (as it is) and get on to who will win this year's Derby?

Is it just me or is this a crop that looks to have some real potential? The Holy Bull is already looking like a great race and there are many more to come.

Old Timer 22 Jan 2011 8:39 AM

Good Luck to Santiva-I believe he is in the right barn for him with the right trainer that can give him the one on one training and attention that he needs.  Will be looking for him on the track.

Love & Blessings

LouAnn Cingel of Union, Missouri 22 Jan 2011 9:21 AM

4 F in 48.4 (1/35) on a chilly morning work today, I’m glad he slowed down a bit off the 46.8  Eight days back, still, he’s keeping good form.  I cannot wait to see his 3 year old debut.

Who?

Bandbox, that’s who.

Oh Oh Oh and Martin Garcia is back – that’s good news!

Zen's Auntie 22 Jan 2011 11:13 AM

I agree Matthew

Footlick 22 Jan 2011 12:25 PM

Old Timer- thanks.  Been saying that for awhile.  Glad someone else did

Footlick 22 Jan 2011 12:25 PM

Have fun!

Rachel 22 Jan 2011 12:59 PM

Thanks Jason--you made my day.

Jean in Chicago 22 Jan 2011 4:16 PM

COLDFACTS,

You need to be consistent with your arguments about overbred stallions.  You knock Storm Cat yet AP Indy you exonerate when both have not distinguished themselves as sires of Triple Crown race winners.  Giant Causeway, I'm pretty confident will breakthrough soon and Santiva is a very live candidate IMO.

Here's my Derby Dozen: 1)Uncle Mo 2)Santiva 3)Tapizar 4)Mucho Macho Man 5)Sweet Ducky 6)Dialed-In 7)Thirtyfirststreet 8)Jaycito 9)Soldat 10)Rogue Romance 11)Reprized Halo 12)Decisive Moment.

Soldat looked very impressive in the slop at Gulfstream today and replaces Comma To The Top in my D/Dozen. I'd love to see your current list (no doubt you have Riveting Reason near to top LOL).

Ranagulzion 22 Jan 2011 4:56 PM

Ted in LA:  I'd sure rather have you write about the Nixon era than read Draynay.  You could talk about those cool stealth airplanes like the SR-71 Blackbird to bring the topic back to speed!  How about Blackbird Stealth as a name for one of Birdsongs offspring?  I think maybe I need a vacation (or another drink).

Jean in Chicago 22 Jan 2011 7:33 PM

Oops, sorry. I meant Birdstone.  Maybe I better skip that drink.

Jean in Chicago 22 Jan 2011 7:51 PM

 Did anyone else think that Pleasant Run's 2nd in the 7th at Gulfstream on Friday, Jan. 21st, was hecka of impressive? It looks like McPeek might just have a good one. I was more impressed with this horse, than I was with any horse in the 9th race, except Soldat, who I think has a lot of

Derby potential at this time.

predict 22 Jan 2011 7:57 PM

Does anyone remember who Ted from LA said would be in the Super Bowl before the season started (on this blog)?  Jean in Chicago, do you need a hug?

Ted from LA 22 Jan 2011 10:52 PM

predict

  I did. He moved onto my list.

Dr Drunkinbum 22 Jan 2011 11:29 PM

Predict and Dr. D: I'm glad it wasn't just me.

I like Pleasant Run and his more-than-pleasant run.  

mz 23 Jan 2011 12:56 AM

p.s. Ted: I had many comments about Nixon, the Soviets and relations but I KNOW that the BH Staff would have had to follow the grand traditions of the Moscow Secretariat (get it...a horse reference) and censor them.

In the meantime, I am looking forward to the Holy Bull.  Anyone else remember that when he had to skip the Donn, he opened the door for another runner called Cigar?  

mz 23 Jan 2011 1:08 AM

Predict,

I saw the 7th at Gulfstream on Friday, Jan. 21st as well. The manner in which Pleasant Run closed from another Zip Code reminded me of Jazil in the 2006 Wood Memorial won by Bob and John. Pleasant Run via his sire Pleasant Tap goes back to the great undefeated Italian monster Ribot. The Ribot sire line has featured in the two Derby winners i.e., Pleasant Colony/ Go ForGin.  His dam sire Dixieland Band has been dam sire of two derby winners i.e., Street Sense/Monarchos. This colt’s pedigree fits beautifully into the Derby winner’s chart.

His running style is not dissimilar to that of Monarchos and Street Sense who were ferocious closers. Who can forget Street Sense’s come from behind wins in the Breeder Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby? Monarchos likewise made devastating moves from behind to win the Florida & Kentucky Derbies. The last top class Pleasant Tap colt was Tiago who won the Santa Anita derby closing from far back. He would go to be 3rd in the Belmont and Breeder Cup Classic.    

Any horse that shows ability and whose dam was sired by a son of Northern Dancer is always a serious derby prospects.   I am of the opinion that this colt merits being placed on a short derby list.

Coldfacts 23 Jan 2011 6:28 AM

Ranagulzion,

I would appreciate you providing the years in which Storm Cat and A P Indy were bred to 200 plus mares. Their stud fees in their prime were $500,000 and $300,000 respectively. Their annual books never reached 200 mares so there is no inconsistency. Giant’s Causeway has repeatedly performed stud duties in different hemispheres.  Neither Storm Cat nor A P Indy has ever left the shores of the US to perform stud duties.

Your Derby Dozen includes some surprising candidates. Santiva, Mucho Macho Man, Sweet Ducky, Reprized Halo and Decisive Moment can be safely removed. They can be replaced with Monzon, The Factor (War Front sired of Soldat) To Honor And Serve, Brethren and Astrology. I still need to see a couple of colts whose pedigrees have captured my attention start before I formulate a dozen.

Coldfacts 23 Jan 2011 6:52 AM

Draynay, I see you are still whining, Like a lovesick puppy with a broken heart. Get over it that horse deserved the award, Its just a shame people like you don't see it that way.

I think Ted from La. ought to be the blog writer while Jason is away , again.

Jason, I see you like to take your vacays' in the winter?  Dude, are you skiing in the Alps?

Please , Jason, do us all a favor and DO NOT let the dreaded Draynay host your blogsite while you are gone.  

I agree with Mike Relva, Draynay.  Go and cry on Seth's shoulders right now.   No, I expect he is man enough to have MOVED on.

Does anyone know when the famous race horse named 'Sodapopkid' is running again?    Sherpa usually lets me know.   I haven't heard anything lately.

sodapopkid 23 Jan 2011 7:46 AM

Ted in LA:  I live in Chicago where its a balmy 18 degrees and we actually think this is not too bad.  The streets are lined with milk crates to save parking spaces people have dug out. The only things green in the backyard are a few evergreens and 3 monk parakeets chowing down at the bird feeders. At least I live on the Southside so I don't have to have be a Cubs fan.  As of this moment Green Bay hasn't squashed the Bears, but check back later.  OF COURSE I need a hug!

Coldfacts: I agree Pleasent Run has a beautiful pedigree.  And these days almost every stud is overbred.  Wasn't Man O' War limited to 20 mares per year and even Secretariat no more that 35-40.  Yes, I know, you can't win if you don't throw the dice and hope springs eternal, but then its the rescue groups trying to pick up the pieces and deal with the poor quality, broken down unwanted animals, be they horses, dogs or cats.  I just hope the Thoroughbred industry never approves artificial insemination.  It won't be 150 mares per season, it will be 1500 and even less genetic diversity.

Jean in Chicago 23 Jan 2011 1:05 PM

Santiva's dam Slide may have been a half-sister to champion sprinter Safely Kept, but she has produced a slew of foals who won races at a mile or more. That is the Smarten influence; he is one of those consistently good but relatively rare (numerically) influences that help a pedigree almost every time it appears. He himself was a top runner at 3 and was a half-brother to a champion, out of a Hooper-bred mare. Never underestimate the offspring of Smarten mares. Don't forget - he sired Classy 'n Smart, a Canadian Oaks winner who foaled champion Dance Smartly and leading sire Smart Strike.

Oh, and Slide's dam ran 73 times for 16 wins; Smarten won 11 of 27, and his dam won 4 of 35. Two of Santiva's half-siblings have run 46 and 23 times. Useful antidote to any perceived softness in the sire.

Pedigree Ann 23 Jan 2011 1:21 PM

Off topic, but yaaayyy for Euroears!

I always liked that horse for no particular reason, so it was good to see him run well.

Tiznowbaby 23 Jan 2011 1:21 PM

Pedigree Ann,

Your 23 Jan 2011 1:21 PM post was very informative about Santiva's broodmare family.  i hope that Coldfacts is paying attention.  Great stuff.

Ranagulzion 23 Jan 2011 2:55 PM

It's about to get much colder in Chicago.  Jean, do you know LeRoy Brown?  He's from the southside too.  Doesn't anyone remember who Ted from LA said would be in the Super Bowl on this very blog last August?  Ted from LA does, but he wants somebody to sing his praises without him having to do it himself.  

Ted from LA 23 Jan 2011 3:20 PM

"Golden (Gate Fields) Parlay", as the old sheister used to say on that old racing show: race two: #2 Pretty Katherine (5-2)...race seven #6 Big Bad Jim (8-1)--no, maybe that was the "Blue Ribbon Parlay", I'm playing them in a win/show parlay....

Matthew W 23 Jan 2011 3:50 PM

Ted from LA is half way home on his pre-season Super Bowl predictions.  Go Jets.  Ted from LA just blew his cover and Ted from LA is aware of that.  Jason, can Ted from LA do a guest blog on the art of writing in the third person?  Ted from LA would enjoy that.

Ted from LA 23 Jan 2011 6:25 PM

When Shandler is traveling, I'm going to surprise him with a guest blog on Triple Crown Talk. ... He has submarined me before.

JerseyTom 23 Jan 2011 6:48 PM

We would welcome a guest blog from you Tom, as long as it's not a handicapping blog.

Ted from LA: You picked the Jets to win. I remember. I also remember you picked Caracortado to win the Derby. 0-for-2 isnt bad.

Jason Shandler 23 Jan 2011 6:57 PM

Jason,

I didn't pick Caracortado to win the Derby, I said he would win the Triple Crown.  Don't think so small.  I didn't predict the winner of the Super Bowl, I said the Packers and Jets would be in the Super Bowl (in mid August).  And now I will say the Packers will win the Super Bowl.  Beware #23 for the Jets tonight...

Ted from LA 23 Jan 2011 7:12 PM

Zen's Auntie:  I am with you as a fan of Bandbox.  I would love to see Rodney have a breakout horse.  Nothing like a Triple Crown trail horse to bring attention to a trainer.

skyfire 23 Jan 2011 7:45 PM

Hi sodapopkid - your namesake was scratched from the last race I saw scheduled for him @AQU, end of November.  Don't know why. He's had 3 4F breezes @BEL in the past month, the last being Monday the 17th, so he'll probably be running in something soon.  I'll sure let you know if I see an entry for him. :-)

sherpa 23 Jan 2011 8:48 PM

#^%&!!

Ted from LA 23 Jan 2011 10:05 PM

Ted in LA:  Oh well, we're used to it here in Chicago.  I only know Leroy Brown by reputation, but I do hear he's big & bad.  Jean in Chicago would enjoy a guest blog by Ted in LA in the third person, but Jean in Chicago doesn't know if Jean in Chicago's cat, Victoria, would be amused.  Jean in Chicago is having to learn to type one handed because Victoria the cat is trying to walk on the keyboard.

Am I the only one who wishes Uncle Mo had a more noble sounding name?  Uncle Mo is as bad as Judge Himes, George Smith or Clyde Van Dusen.

Jean in Chicago 23 Jan 2011 10:31 PM

Great article about Santiva. I have him rank 17th on my list. He is a hard working horse and I do like that he battled to win and he also won at Churchill. I have to see how he progresses as a 3 year old to be fully satisfied with his derby potential. He was slower than Tapizar that day and he improved nicely in the Sham.

Coldfacts with amount of data you give with each post, you can't come with twelve horses.

RJPPDP 23 Jan 2011 10:58 PM

Had a good day today at the windows, having won yesterday at Santa Anita, then a bit more at Los Al--Today I again won at Anita and again at Los Al, nearly taking them down for a biggie--not big bucks ahead but it's some great feeling when you can hang out, play some races, and get paid a bit, too--I had It Tiz, not sure why they let her go off at 8-1, I thought she would sit the trip/get first run, ahead of the MacInally filly--had that early double--how 7-5 and 4-1 morning line pays fifty bucks I do not know, also yesterday got very lucky, had Espinoza at 13-1 at 6 1/2 turf...PVal falls, I get a big lead, then the fallen horse runs interference for me the whole length of the stretch--things like that (luck) can keep you alive for later races/later hits--missed on Bestdressed/missed (4th at big odds) on The Whammer in 9th...nothing like it when you come up with live ones all day, and prices--"when the system's working and I'm not", to quote Bukowski, that's the best....

Matthew W 24 Jan 2011 6:45 AM

The most impressive horse Sunday at Santa Anita was Ronin Dax, who ran down the favorite after he had a hard steady on the clubhouse turn--he has another gear and will go on--turf looks like his thing, he's a nice three year old son of Tapit, with a good burst of speed--he looks like the type of horse that will win many races, many two turn grass races, and I will be keeping an eye on him....

Matthew W 24 Jan 2011 7:06 AM

MZ is ignoring all of Ted from LA's comments about writing in the third person.  MZ is a Canadian and is used to her head of state making comments in the third  person (the Queen, don't you know).  MZ is also not so impressed by Ted from LA's 0 for 2.  (However, MZ is also unhappy that it is not a Jets - Bears final -- although she loves them, she is tired of the Steelers and the Packers.)

Jean in Chicago: to make you happier, there is a 3YO (I believe still a maiden) named "Admiral Perry"  - by First Samurai out of Western Humor ("Humour" in the Queen's lands) by Gone West.  I love it when a name fits so beautifully!  

p.s. MZ has been reading Hewitt and Bowen (having bought books over the holidays from BHPress)and highly, highly recommends any of their books to anyone who wishes they were around earlier and want to learn about racing history.  

Finally: go Black n Beauty!!  (Ontario bred AND sold for peanuts.  Who can NOT love such a horse!)

mz 24 Jan 2011 1:54 PM

And to put everything into perspecitve, MZ is still a Bills fan.  What can she say?  She grew up in the land of the Maple Leafs and learned to embrace loss.  That is why she is so effective in picking Derby winners.

Also, connecting with her tail-male and tail-female families, GO UDINESE!! (Jason: soccer -- Italian First Division)

mz 24 Jan 2011 3:30 PM

Uncle Mo is a weak name for a Derby winner.  It's not as bad as Super Saver, but it is bad.

Ted from LA 24 Jan 2011 3:39 PM

mz:  I'm looking forward to the Holy Bull also.  

Regarding The Holy Bull, Bull did run in the 1995 Donn.  He broke from the extreme outside, went right to the front as usual and then was joined by Cigar on the inside and they went neck and neck into the backstretch when Bull was suddenly pulled up with what would be a career-ending injury.

Cigar went on to win and we know the rest about his great career.

Bull was a flat out runner, going to the lead and dominating his fields.  We got to see him in 1998 at Jonabel Farm along with Affirmed and Cherokee Run.  Bull was 3YO of the year and HOY in 1994.  And he raced without medication.

Looking forward to this renewal of the Holy Bull.  Hopefully it will shed some more light on these emerging 3 year olds.

Right now Tapizar looks very good.  He has a good 2yo foundation, has traveled, broke his mdn. at Churchill as has been noted with a better time than Santiva and looked good winning the Sham.

But, check out a maiden race at Monmouth on 9/19.  In a two turn race, he dumped his jockey out of the gate, rushed up along the rail to take the lead, led around the turn, then drifted way out losing contact with the field down the backstretch.

As the field rounded the final turn, here comes the riderless Tapizar back into the field, splits horses at the top of the stretch, moves to the rail and is getting to the winner, finishing a fast closing third, all wihtout a rider.  Tapizar has intelligence, guts, and is certainly not afraid to mix it up.  Keeping a close eye on him.    

trackjack 24 Jan 2011 5:55 PM

Trackjack,

Can I be your date at Churchill for the Road to the Roses contest you won?  I'll dress in drag if necessary (if Dray will let me borrow his dress).  Thank in advance.  Go Buckeyes!

Ted from LA 24 Jan 2011 7:51 PM

Trackjack: thanks for reminding me about how it happened.

I remember we were all looking forward to Holy Bull's year and then THIS happened.  I remember thinking that this "Cigar" horse didn't so much win as Holy Bull lose.  And who the heck was this "Cigar" anyways!

This is what I like about this sport.  We can always know that every spring, there's a new Derby winner born and romping around some meadow with his/her dam.

mz 24 Jan 2011 8:19 PM

Ted from LA:

Right now, my wife is my date, but if that doesn't work out I'll put you down for..let's see...#21 on the list.  It would be nice, though, if any bloggers are at the Derby to meet at a spot and time and lift a Mint Julep together.

I'll be stopping by box #74 on Tampa Bay Derby Day to meet Dray and maybe 2:24.  I'll check out the dress.

mz may be a Bills fan, but I'm a Browns fan.  Thank goodness the Buckeyes are looking good.  Tuesday evening at 9:00PM, I think I'll down a boilermaker.  GO BUCKS!

trackjack 24 Jan 2011 8:37 PM

Jason:

Have fun at the Sunshine Millions.  Enjoy watching the Flordia breds beat up on the Cal breds once again.  It doesn't help Team Cali that not one Cal bred will be in the Classic field(at Gulfstream).  The best race of the day appears to be out in Cali with the Male Turf; Cal breds The Usual QT, Caracortado, and Soul Candy will face off against Florida breds Jeranimo(stables in Cali) and shipper Presious Passion.

To make the day a little more competitive, perhaps Team Flordia should give about 7 points to Team Cali.

Speaking of Cal breds, what has happened since the day when we had Best Pal and Bertrando, Free House, General Challenge, Budroyale, and Tiznow?  In the Sunshine Millions era, the only true elite male Cal bred has been Lava Man, who won the 06' Sunshine Millions Classic and 07' Sunshine Millions Turf as well as 7 grade 1 races(tied with Curlin for most since Skip Away by a male horse).

GunBow 24 Jan 2011 11:11 PM

HEARS SOME FORE U...IS THE TRIPLE CROWN RUN N 2yo's N THE GROUND???...IS FRANK STRONACHS 5.5/2.2 ABOUT BUCK BOB EVANS & HIS CROWD???...& PLEASE STAY TUNED N SOUTH FLORDIA...ty...

Bellwether 25 Jan 2011 5:14 AM

Tiznowbaby thinks Ted from LA would be a hottie in a dress. Tiznowbaby hopes to see pictoral proof of this.

Tiznowbaby 25 Jan 2011 8:21 AM

Tiznowbaby: Since MZ will finally be going to the Derby this year and will already be holding up a big sign that says: "I [heart] Ted from LA" in front of ?(MZ has already forgotten where), she will finally figure out how to use the digital camera and promises to take pictures of Ted.  Hopefully, Ted will accessorize with a beautiful hat.  In the spirit of international cooperation, MZ will also attempt to wear a hat.  Both parties will then try to end Ted's 0 for 2 streak by picking a horse for the Derby that will WIN! (OK, aiming too high -- won't finish 4th or worse)

Trackjack: you can either ditch the wife and meet us or, to keep the marriage together (as a matrimonial lawyer, I can confirm that it's much, much cheaper to keep the marriage together), bring her along.  But both of you also have to wear hats.

Mint juleps all around.

mz 25 Jan 2011 10:56 AM

I blush.  I know where you'll be on Derby Day Trackjack.  You get free Mint Juleps .  I met a former contest winner on Derby Day and he kept sneaking me free drinks.  I felt guilty.  It was an intoxicating experience.  

Ted from LA 25 Jan 2011 12:31 PM

Gate 17.

Ted from LA 25 Jan 2011 1:42 PM

Free Drinks?

Free Drinks!

mz 25 Jan 2011 3:20 PM

mz, you bring the lamp shade and trackjack and I will fill it with Mint Juleps until you decide to wear said lamp shade.

Ted from LA 25 Jan 2011 3:27 PM

MZ: thanks for Admiral Perry.  So great to see somebody use a little wit.  Besides, I think the Racing Gods appreciate it as well.  Good luck to him.

Tiznowbaby, I also want to see Ted in LA in celebratory mode, but this might require pictures taken before the actual running of the race.  Does this mean I have to join Facebook?  I've barely moved into the 20th century, I don't know about going for the 21st.

Jean in Chicago 25 Jan 2011 5:53 PM

Why, I do believe Ted from LA, that you are from my generation**

I highly doubt anyone in The Facebook Generation even knows what a lamp shade it, let alone how to wear it correctly.

**as in "Groovy" and "...talkin' 'bout...",

NOT " I like Ike".

mz 25 Jan 2011 8:28 PM

Tiznowbaby is now planning to play hooky from work on Derby Day to be entertained by mz, Ted in LA, and Trackjack and his wife. Tiznowbaby is a little afraid that mz will be too drunk to take clear, sharp pictures.

Tiznowbaby 25 Jan 2011 11:56 PM

RJPPDP,

Since you are twisting my arm I have compiled a list of twelve horses that I think are capable of winning the derby. They are in no particular order. If I had to give one a #1 ranking it would be Supreme Ruler.

To Honor And Serve

Thirtyfirststreet

Monzon

Indian winter

Pleasant Run

Jaycito

Sovereing Default

Riveting Reason

Caspers Touch

Fort Hughes

Supreme Ruler

Dialed In

Of course this list is subject to change but the above groups are the ones I have as my top twelve for the 10F race.

Coldfacts 26 Jan 2011 9:35 AM

The roadtotheroses.com fantasy stable contest sponsored by Churchill Downs will begin on Feb.14.  My guess is the first scoring races will be weekend of Feb. 26-27 (Fountain of Youth/Hutcheson and others). Check it out.

I was lucky enough to win this contest in 2010 and I'm champing at the bit to turn a Derby Double this year.

trackjack 26 Jan 2011 9:48 AM

GunBow,

I absolutely love Jeranimo's chances in the Sunshine Millions Turf. I have been following this horse since he broke his maiden. In 2009 he ran an okay race in the San Felipe against Pioneer Of The Nile and then kind of tailed off. Last year he looked great in the Strub and then faltered in the Santa Anita Handicap. Why the long layoff after the Big Cap? Jeranimo's two races on turf recently have been brilliant, he lengthened his stride well and kicked home powerfully. I'm going to play straight exacta's over Caracortado and The Usual Q.T.

With Santiva it is very interesting that they have switched trainers twice. This colt now has a trainer that can focus on him and not him plus fifty other 3 year olds. I wish them well and am looking forward to his next start.

Forbidden Apple 26 Jan 2011 10:16 AM

Jason.  Give the floor to Draynay. Anyone who thinks Zenyatta deserved HOTY has their head in the sand.  Horse of the Year?  More like Farce of the Year.  That's what it is from now on.  Zenyatta 2010 FOTY.

Sylvester 26 Jan 2011 12:37 PM

MZ wishes to advise Tiznowbaby that she can never be too drunk to take clear, sharp pictures.

They may, however, be of sky or feet instead of Ted from LA or Trackjack and Trackjill.

mz 27 Jan 2011 11:48 AM

Jason,

 Sway Away worked another bullet today, this time at Santa Anita. Five in 57 and change. Enjoy the warm weather, it sucks big time up here.

longwaytomay 27 Jan 2011 1:49 PM

trackjack : Did you win the Grand Prize ?  Trip to the derby this year and cash to bet on your pick ?  I've been playing it for years now, just learning how to pick my stable.  The injuries and graded earnings rule have killed my stable for the last 2 years.  I'm hoping to pick 10 horses that actually makes it to the derby.

jayjay 27 Jan 2011 3:27 PM

So, Holy Bull has been drawn? Who you got? Mucho Macho Man? Dialed IN? Black in Beauty? What about SWEET DUCKY? Should be fun

Billy's Empire 27 Jan 2011 3:59 PM

DRAYNAY

Why don't you dial it down? I'm sick of your lame comments regrading a certain horse. You were WRONG last summer when you stated about hundred times she wouldn't win another race,WRONG when you said she wouldn't show up last Nov,WRONG when you said your QR would win and get HOY,WRONG when you stated a year ago RA would win another HOY and win the Breeders,hell she didn't make it thru last year. Your opinion doesn't matter,you can't stand it you were wrong and wrong again regarding who would win HOY. You deflect your own losing prediction regarding QR and act as if you're on Blame. Guess what? You weren't! That's the way you roll when your prediction fails to happen,you ignore it and jump on another horse and bash the other. Why don't you stop acting like a five yr. old and move on and discuss what this blog is supposed to be about? Most of us and myself included are tired of it. Are you going to be posting this ten yrs from now? It's over,move the ---- on!

Mike Relva 27 Jan 2011 5:55 PM

COLDFACTS,

With your arms twisted you left out Uncle Mo, Santiva and Tapizar off your dozen list.  Also you included Riveting Reason and left out his preferred stable mate Premier Pegasus?  Interesting as always my friend.

Ranagulzion 27 Jan 2011 9:23 PM

Oh, for heaven's sake, Sylvester, get over it and stop trying to stir up old arguments.  We're all fed up with the HOY bickering nonsence.  Do you also want to go back to the fighting over RA vs Zen (I love my horse, I hate yours)?  If you want to pick fights, why not at least move ahead and start saying nasty things about potential Derby prospects.  I'm sure if you work at it, you and Draynay can probably find something negative to say about every horse nominated.

Jean in Chicago 27 Jan 2011 11:56 PM

MZ, Tisnowbaby, Ted in LA, trackjack(&spouse):  if I can figure a way to make it from Chicago, can I come too?  I promise I'll were a hat suitable for the occasion and buy a round of mint juleps.

Jean in Chicago 28 Jan 2011 12:10 AM

Forbidden Apple:

I also really like Jeranimo in Turf.  His San Gabriel, at the same distance on the same track and surface, was awesome.  I have always respected The Usual QT as one of America's best turf milers, but one has to wonder if he's over the top; Cassidy says he bled in the San Gabriel, and while that may be true, QT has only had one break the last 2 years and that break was a few months after running in Dubai.  Caracortado would be my 2nd choice.  Don't know what to make of the old class, Presious Passion.  Does he have one more swash buckling efforts in him?

GunBow 28 Jan 2011 5:19 AM

Ranagulzion,

Neither Uncle Mo nor Tapizar will win the derby. Santivo will not figure he is too slow. Premier Pegasus is a nice colt but I wanted to list the top 12 colts that captured my attention.

I know you have predicted that A P Indy will never sire a Kentucky Derby winner. You also listed his sons/grandsons that you think are likely to sire a Derby winner. Of course Bernardini was excluded. You seem to fancy A P Indy’s grandson Tapit to break through in this department. What if I told you that you are focused on the wrong grandson?  The Tapit sired Tapizar is in your top five. Well, there is a colt sired by another grandson of A P Indy that has a phenomenal classis winning dam line. In fact, pedigreed experts would regard his dam line as the best of the class of 2011.  His dam was G1 placed and was a close second in Coronation Stakes (G1) to the eventual 1995 European HOY. Needless to say, she is from the most successful broodmare line in Triple Crown history i.e., Northern Dancer. His second dam won the Kentucky Oaks and is also the second dam of two Belmont winners, two Oaks winners, and two champion 3YOs. His sire has stamina to spare. He won the Derby Trails at 8F and eight days later finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby beaten less than 4 lengths. In an era where two derby preps appear to be the new normal, his sire covered 18 furlongs in a span of 8 days which underlines his toughness..  

This colt made a very positive start to his career by wining on debut at a mile and while returning a handsome of $71. He closed from second to last from 15 lengths off the pace. It must be noted that he came back to the winner’s enclosure on his toes. A clear sign he was not affected by the mile he had just covered. This colt carries the blood of possibly best grand dam in Triple Crown history. If he runs anywhere near to his pedigree potential, the derby will be a mere formality.

Coldfacts 28 Jan 2011 11:41 AM

Ranagulzion,

Since you are planning to take a leave of absence if a Bernardini sired horse wins the derby, you can start early and take Leave of Absence in the Holy Bull.

Coldfacts 28 Jan 2011 11:46 AM

Usual Q T has run some monster races--throw out the San Gabriel, that wasn't him (I hope), his best is best--if you wana take a stab on Caracortado at, say, 5-1 (or bigger) I can see that, but to say Jeranimo is superior to Usual Q T, that is a stretch--I'll get the form then handicap like crazy and see what happens--by the way Gun Bow-- Freaky is running Sat night at Los Al--if you go, look for a couple of tall skinny guys at the winners circle gate--fifties but don't look a day over 49--I'm the long haired guy who doesn't stop talking--my friend won the Cy Young award and he talks more than me....

Matthew W 28 Jan 2011 1:26 PM

The Usual Q T--talk about a horse who has been miss-managed! He's a miler--he can beat any U S miler for fun--1 1/8 is stretching it, but his Eddie Read was strong--if he did bleed, then I'm not confident in running him back so soon--last year they sent him to Dubai, then they changed up on him/made him go 1 1/4 at Del Mar  and what else can they do to him? Get out the stakes book--look up Gr 1 turf....get out the check book and nominate him...keep him focused on being the #1 miler in U S, which is what he should be....

Matthew W 28 Jan 2011 1:33 PM

Jean in Chicago,

It's just a short drive from Chicago to Louisville.  No excuses would be acceptable from that distance.  I'll be honest.  Unless you're broke, every poster on this blog should go to the Derby.  You'll never view it the say way after being there.  I am going to the tomato fight in Spain this year for the same reason.  Ted from LA is going to have a smile on his face at the retirement home one way or another.  Eat.  Pray.  Love.  But after you do those things, don't make a bad movie about it.

Ted from LA 28 Jan 2011 3:55 PM

Well, it looks like Jean from Chicago is booked to Ted from LA.

Ted from LA 28 Jan 2011 4:33 PM

COLDFACTS,

Regarding your 'mystery' Derby horse, I have to tell you that I've been waiting to see the progeny of Don't Get Mad.  I really like the pedigree of this grandson of AP Indy (this may surprise you)and I think that he has the potential based upon pedigree, performance and conformation to become the best AP Indy line sire if given some good mares.  I like that he's loaded with Hyperion, top and bottom which means that he can throw classy ones that can become special ones occassionaly.  Anyway you have to name this mystery colt because I don't know of him.

Leave of Absence has a better chance of winning the Holy Bull than any son of Bernadini has of winning the Derby, so please don't plan any going away party for me Bro ...it aint gonna happen.  I'm taking Mucho Macho Man to win the Holy Bull ahead of Gourmet Dinner (very fit).  I'm watching the performances of Dialed-In and Sweet Ducky with a lot of interest.

Ranagulzion 28 Jan 2011 6:07 PM

COLDFACTS,

Looking to gain from a long shot in the Holy Bull?  Try Major Gain (no kidding).

Ranagulzion 28 Jan 2011 6:48 PM

Jean in Chicago: by now, you should know that you will Regret it forever if you do not Whirlaway from Chicago to Churchill Downs this year.  AFter all, it's not like you're coming from Omaha or Seattle [Slew].  Just use a little Street Sense if you are driving; there's a Genuine Risk that you might end up with a Citation if you speed.  Once you get to the track, you know that the Ted from LA Group won't be Real Quiet and even if some of us might Go for Gin, the rest of us will stick to the mint juleps.  Finally, if we hit an exotic, the next thing we'll do is rent a palace in France and we'll all be Unbridled Northern Dancer[s] in Chateaugay.

The end.

mz 28 Jan 2011 8:47 PM

I bow before mz.  Long live the new queen.

Ted from LA 28 Jan 2011 11:24 PM

Regarding the Holy Bull, it looks to me like Black N Beauty and Mucho Macho Man will be the pace of the race. If either of them gets an easy lead it could be trouble for the rest of the field. I'm sticking with Dialed In on top to pick up some much needed graded earnings.

Gunbow,

I have a very good feeling about Jeranimo in the Sunshine Millions Turf. His 5/2 morning line is much less than I was hoping for, so I'll have to key him in the exactas. I like Caracortado for second also. Pressious Passion and The Usual Q.T. are also horses that I root for, but they seem to be in subpar form at the moment. If Jeranimo wins handily again, maybe his connections will keep him on turf and not point him towards the Big Cap. On the other hand, what older horse are going to run on dirt at 1 1/4 in the Big Cap?

Forbidden Apple 29 Jan 2011 12:18 AM

jayjay:  

Yep, it's me. We're going as guests of Churchill Downs. I've been playing the game for 10 years.  I do a lot of research with a lot of luck.

Jean in Chicago:

I agree with your friend Ted from LA that every poster on this blog should do the Derby if they haven't done it yet.  If you'll buy a round of MJ's you are More than Welcome and I am More than Ready.

mz:

Great post, truly entertaining.  I couldn't stop laughing, it got my Funny Cide.  I hope we can all meet.  If I'm lucky enough to Strike the Gold, I'll Spend a Buck (or two) and buy a round after Jean in Chicago does.  Friday is Oaks Day and the drink is a Vodka based "Oaks Lily". And of course Derby Day is Bourbon and there is none better, IMO, than Woodford Reserve.  With my Derby hat, my wife and my blog friends I should be Lucky Debonair and also a gentleman with not one Forward Pass.  I'm out.

Mucho Macho Man to win the Holy Bull.  He will win his Grandaddy's race.  Cold exactas over Dialed In and Black n Beauty.  

trackjack 29 Jan 2011 1:06 AM

This should help you to identify the colt you have classified as my mystery horse. The 1982 Kentucky Oaks winner Blush With Pride was bred to Deputy Minister and she produced Better Than Honour the dam of Jazil ( 1ts Belmont,4th Kentucky Derby) ; Rags To Riches (1st Kentucky Oaks;1st Belmont, Champion 3YO Filly) Blush With Pride was also bred to Sadlers Wells and produced Maryinsky the dam of Peeping Fawn (Yorkshire Oaks (G1), Nassau S. (G1), Irish Oaks G1) Both Better Than Honour and Maryinsky placed in a GI race. In keeping with the success of the cross with the Northern Dancer sire line, Blush With Pride was bred to Danzig and produced Smolensk who ran a close second in the 1995 (G1) Coronation Stakes to 1995 European HOY Ridgewood Pearl. If you are interested the very exciting race is on YouTube. Smolensk is the dam of my mystery colt. Smolensk in the third G1 placed broodmare produced by Blush With Pride (16 Starts, 6 Wins, 4 Places, 2 Shows: $536,807) This colt’s dam is from a line that produce classic winners. If he is good enough he should figures in the classics.  

Coldfacts 29 Jan 2011 1:44 AM

Black N Beauty for the win!

Mike Relva 29 Jan 2011 10:50 AM

Congrats Zookeeper what a GREAT move from my favorite Maiden no more Runflatout!!!!

Zen's Auntie 29 Jan 2011 3:45 PM

looks like will find out about the factor in the san vincente.

thomas 29 Jan 2011 3:48 PM

Zookeeper, if you're on here, CONGRATULATIONS!

Runflatout broke his maiden in 1:07.70 at Santa Anita. Let us know when he's running next!

CV 29 Jan 2011 4:16 PM

Ranagulzion,

Live Long Shot: Ribo Bobo. What is it with these names?

Louis Quatorze has a tendency to produce some tough little colts (Repent/ Second Of June). This colt is the only one on my extended watch list with a dam line that goes back to Damascus. Second Of June who was actually foaled on (06/02/2001) was runner up in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes and followed up with a victory in the Holy Bull. Ribo Bobo won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes and will be attempting duplicate Second Of June’s effort in the Holy Bull. Can lightening strike twice? You never know.

Coldfacts 30 Jan 2011 5:58 AM

Two more hopefuls pooped into the picture yesterday with Bernardini's Crossbow, and Flatter's Runflatout. (Hey DD...isn't this Ruffianruns baby?  He's been moved to the Sadler barn) This gets more interesting every day.  The favorites fell short yesterday, except for Evening Jewel who did her thing and stayed out of the breeding shed.

I don't think Presious Passion has ever been properly trained.  He runs like lightning to start, then runs out of gas halfway through a race.  Since he's so uncontrollable, wouldn't sprints have done him more justice?

Slew 30 Jan 2011 8:30 AM

Zookeeper---My congratulations on Runflatout's win as well! You must be thrilled!

Karen in Texas 30 Jan 2011 10:38 AM

Ranagulzion,

Ribo Bobo was 2nd to Astrology in Iroquois Stakes (G3). The finish of that race would have been closer if he did not swerve under left hand whipping. Astrology was a close second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club. If Santiva was entered in the Holy Bull he would have been the ML favorite. Use Astrology as a measure Ribo Bobo must have an outside shot if he is any good.

Coldfacts 30 Jan 2011 12:10 PM

Runflatout and Caracortado both looked like very important horses Sat at The Great Race Place--Runflatout ran as good or even better that The Factor, while Caracortado has developed a turf kick that looks second to none around here....

Matthew W 30 Jan 2011 1:08 PM

Congrats to Zookeeper for Runflatout!

Footlick 30 Jan 2011 1:09 PM

Slew I think Precious Passion has won more $$ than the rest of the field combined, twice over! Not many sprinters win 2.7 mil....

Matthew W 30 Jan 2011 1:11 PM

Zen's Auntie, CV, Slew,

The win, by Runflatout in his first race, was fabulous! I haven't come down to Earth yet.

I was so afraid to jinx him by talking about it ahead of time. Considering that he was scratched twice before at Del Mar because of respiratory problems, I kept my fingers crossed that he would actually run. I was hoping for a good showing. I wasn't expecting him to win. So, you can understand that I'm still on top of the world  this morning.

How lucky, for a somebody like me, to dip my toe in the game for the very first time and come up with a young colt who can run!!!

There are no words to express the way I felt when I realized that he was going to win. Whatever small percentage I have in RFO, I'm bursting at the seam with pride and pure joy... you would think that I own the whole horse.lol!

The experience has been well worth it, just for this one race. I won't think any further than this. For now, I'll just keep smiling...

Thank you for rooting right along with me and for your kind words. I'm elated and enormously grateful.

Zookeeper 30 Jan 2011 1:15 PM

Coldfacts,

Your 'mystery' Derby horse could indeed become a 'supreme ruler' of the 3YO division by the end of the season.  It is not far fetched, as long as the conections don't rush him.  I perceive that his development may be late for the Derby but I could be wrong.  Anyway I'm a fan of his pedigree (so glad to see Don't Get Mad cover a broodmare of the calibre of Smolensk).  He looks like the ideal type for a "Summer Bird-like" campaign (Belmont, Travers & Jockey Club Gold Cup).  However he'll have to move forward significantly to make my Derby short list but I'll be following his progress.  There is a lot to like about this colt.  Very good Coldfacts!!!

You mentioned Louis Quatorze.  Its quite disappointing to me how a such a good tough Northern Dancer line stallion has become unfashionable.  I don't fancy Ribo Bobo, whose name is a bit of a misnomer or "bobo" indeed since the colt is no relations of the great Ribot.  

The South Florida colt that I really fancy to make a big splash at some point on the Derby trail is Reprized Halo.  This one has a ton of ability and he can close like an express train.  Watch out for him my friend.  He has inbreeding to the Epsom Derby and Kentucky Derby-winner-producing sire line, Hail To Reason via Epsom Derby winner Roberto through Dynaformer, that produced Barbaro, and Halo, also a son of HTR, that produced none other than the immortal Sunday Silence.  This colt has already put away Gourmet Dinner and Decisive Moment with ease in a Florida Stallion Stakes series two turn race.  You dismissed him when I originally shared my Derby Dozen with you but I think that you should take a second look because of the Derby winner-producing influences in his pedigree that is fairly close up (within the first five generations).  Good luck to you Bro.    

Ranagulzion 30 Jan 2011 3:59 PM

Hi Slew!  And the rest of you wonderful folks.  No, Runflatout is not "mine."  Only in spirit because Zookeeper is so generous with HER wonderful colt.

Wasn't he spectacular yesterday?  Go RFO!

ruffianruns 30 Jan 2011 5:36 PM

Wow!!!!  Just saw Dialed IN win the Holy Bull. Mucho who???  I guess To Honer and Serve not the only horse who can beat him.

Kristen Ohler 30 Jan 2011 5:39 PM

Congrats Trackjack! I bow down to you oh master of the roses.  That's a hard contest to win.

jayjay 30 Jan 2011 8:23 PM

Wow regarding Dialed In.  He had a nice pace to close at but that was an impressive win for his second start.

2:24 30 Jan 2011 8:30 PM

Oh Zookeeper, I'm so happy for you!  RFO looked AMAZING in his race yesterday.  

I'm sorry for Carla, though.  You could tell she really loved him, too.  How did you feel about WPT moving him to Sadler?

WOW he's got such a beautiful way of moving. Believe me, a LOT of people sat up & took notice of his race!

sherpa 30 Jan 2011 10:07 PM

zookeeper,

Great news!  My only advice is to contact the photography shop at the track and buy poster sized win photos and place them everywhere you like to be in life... office, bathroom, bedroom (schwing), etc.  I met LaPenta at Belmont Park after he beat Big Brown.  He seemed like a really good guy.  It would be tough to bet against him.  I have a fever and it always hits Ted from LA this time of year.  I am thinking about changing my name on this blog.  Jason, is that possible?  If so, I'd like some suggestions from my fellow posters and Dr. Drunkinbum.  George W's Liver?

Ted from LA 30 Jan 2011 10:11 PM

Zookeeper,

Congratulations on the impressive win by Runflatout!  I just watched the video--very professional.  A good looking, well bred colt who literally can run flat out.  Thanks for sharing your joy.  The only race in the future that means anything is the next one.  Good Luck! Enjoy the ride. I've only heard good things about West Point Thoroughbreds.

2:24,

I agree, Dialed In looks good.  Another Wow!!!

trackjack 30 Jan 2011 11:30 PM

Dialed In's victory does have that "wow factor", after his first two races, he looks like a star in the making.

 Another nicely bred horse broke his maiden at Gulfstream today,also going a mile, in what appeared to be easy fashion for his first race, that being Nacho Business. The time was not as impressive as Dialed In's race, but this was his first race and the fractions were not nearly as fast. However, he seemed to be done early in the turn and them came back on to win in a very professional manner for a first race. He has some classy breeding with Gloris Song,who gave us Singspiel, and Private Account, who gave us Personal Ensign, in his closeup pedigree. He could be another one to watch for sure. It looks like this year's Derby could be loaded with some really good ones!

predict 31 Jan 2011 12:27 AM

Runflatout's debut race featured the best last 1/4 of any debuter that I can recall having seen--very good! He quickened by that Baffert horse like a real nice thing--it was how he did it that gets the heart pumping!

Matthew W 31 Jan 2011 12:50 AM

Karen in Texas, Footlick, ruffianruns,

Thank you! Your comments are very much appreciated. I'm loving all of you!

Matthew W,

You flatter this Flatter colt way too much. Thank you though. :)

Zookeeper 31 Jan 2011 1:01 AM

What Dialed In did in the Holy Bull was astonishing!!! The fact that it was only his second start makes it even more so. What a great win!!!

Zookeeper 31 Jan 2011 1:07 AM

Caracortado under :35 for last 3/8 this horse is a turf miler--he corners like a turf horse/explodes like a miler--go in the Kilroe, where he will run by Sidney's Candy--a mile on grass is less taxing--more suited to the types who can come home fast--and he can! NOT the Big Cap! He's a small horse/it will knock him out--he's a miler--a turf miler--and keep him there--he will run by them all--time and time again....

Matthew W 31 Jan 2011 1:56 AM

Zookeeper:

So Runflatout is the horse you had mentioned last year?  I remember you had a part of a horse that was scheduled to start but had to scratch.

My goodness, you just might have a monster.  He's an amazing horse to look at, with size, length, power, and athleticism.  The pace wasn't crazy for this surface, but what I like is that he came home that last 8th in under 12.  

Making the Kentucky Derby will be asking alot of this young horse, but there are many other opportunities for 3 year olds. Given his breeding and conformation, anything up to and including 9 furlongs should be fine.   I hope he stays sound and healthy, because he's a horse an owner can have some fun with.  I'll be rooting for you!

GunBow 31 Jan 2011 3:30 AM

Anytime you can hit a $102 exacta makes for a good Sunday night. Too Bad Sweet Ducky could not hold on or the Exacta would of been a LOT more. That was an impressive stretch run by Dialed In. He looked like he ws just getting going once he switched leads. Zito just needs to keep him healthy and hope he can make it to the gate on May 7th. What happened to Black N Beauty? Bounce? I guess next out will tell the story.

Anyone else notice that TO Honor and Serve just worked in 104? Uncle Mo in 39 and 4. I know they are just works, but 5,000 claimer work faster than that. What did you all think about Machen?

Billy's Empire 31 Jan 2011 9:28 AM

Zookeeper,

My heartiest congratulations to you my friend on Runflatout's auspicious debut.  You should consider namimng the next one "Jollygoodfellow" because that's what you are on these blogs.  Bravo!!!

Ranagulzion 31 Jan 2011 10:04 AM

Congratulations to the Walters Family.  Chris Walters deserves praise for his instinctive foresight in choosing the horses.  This is a delightful story to watch unfold and I wish him much future success!    

Wonder 31 Jan 2011 11:38 AM

Dang, that Dialed In Looked good. Tasty colt...and my girl SWITCH is certainly becoming the dominant female dirt miler in the west.  

Zookeeper I sure understand you not wanting to jinx him but thanks so much for sharing the enthusiasm and elation you are feeling with us.

My girls and I all sat down to watch Runflatout and we cheered like he was our own. RFO Looks in fantastic condition by the way, and the commentators really spoke well of him. I'm smiling typing this - Congratulations again!!

Speaking of screaming, I love the new Three Chimney's commercial, Have you seen it??

"....Because, no one ever lost their voice, cheering for a mutual fund.......... SO TRUE.

I am glad to see RFO's respiratory problems are cleared up.  Sometimes its hard to pin down what causes things in horses.  It’s weird to think of a horse being allergic to hay but we have a show horse here that was recently switched to all bluegrass pellets instead of any hay as he is a snotty allergic mess when he has any type of hay but is doing great on the pellets.

Zen's Auntie 31 Jan 2011 12:43 PM

The fractions set in the Sunshine Millions Sprint looked like quarter horse times!  

Nice to see Evening Jewel bounce right back after her down the hill turf experiment as well as Switch who shows no sign of letting up. Would like to see Evening Jewel ship out to the Apple Blossom along with Blind Luck.  Looks the CA has 3 of the best in the filly/mare division.

Householder 31 Jan 2011 1:35 PM

Zookeeper: Sorry I said he "pooped" up in the running when I meant popped up. (You just may have a Derby contender on your hands). Fantastic colt.  While Dialed In is a strong candidate, Machen is one gutsy horse.  Boxed in, he was a bull when it came to splitting up the front runners....and then opening up like a rocket.  Great races this weekend.  Enjoyed them all.  Dancinginherdreams was still the best in her race; she certainly has carried her form through to this year.

Slew 31 Jan 2011 1:57 PM

TVG Poll.  Best Older Male...Sidney's Candy.

Householder 31 Jan 2011 3:29 PM

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Not concerned about THAS work,he will be ready when it counts.

Mike Relva 31 Jan 2011 3:32 PM

Zookeeper: Congratulations!!  Yipee, yipee, yipee!!   I understand your not wanting to jinx him, but boy that baby looks GOOD.  You must feel like a proud mom.  Best of luck and keep us posted. If you get a chance, give him a pat and a carrot from all of us.

Slew:  its OK, we knew you meant popped and it was a good call.

MZ:  that was brilliant!!

Ted from LA:  you can't change your name at least until after the Derby or mz won't be able to hold up the "I (heart) Ted from LA" sign and we won't be able to all meet up.  

Jean in Chicago 31 Jan 2011 3:52 PM

Congrats, Zookeeper! It's an awful lot of fun witnessing your joy on here.

Tiznowbaby 31 Jan 2011 4:25 PM

Slew

   I thought you meant that they both pooped during the post parade.

Ted from LA

    No, you can't change your name.

Zookeeper

   Congratulations !!!!!!! Did you feed him organic carrots? Good job. It was one of the best debuts in the history of the world. Those red herrings thrown out there about too much of you know what in the lungs was brilliant so you could get the odds all the way up to 2-1. That was a 1-9 debut if I ever saw one. Reminded me of the way Lost In The Fog ran his competition into the ground and left them gasping for air. And Runflatout was so fresh afterwards !!!!!!! Thanks for sharing.

Dr Drunkinbum 31 Jan 2011 5:23 PM

A quarter mile in 20 seconds...a half mile in 42 seconds!  

Householder 31 Jan 2011 5:58 PM

On to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  It's nice to see a graded stakes at 1 1/8th this early.  But then they cut back in distance for the San Felipe.  What gives?  

Householder 31 Jan 2011 6:05 PM

Good win by Dialed In.  I was there and he was back by 18 or more not 15. However he beat a very average field.  Gourmet Dinner and Sweet Ducky are not Derby contending horses and speed was not holding all day. Uncle Mo and THS are still the Big Dogs in Florida.  Dialed In had a nice race but against better competition he will just be a horse finishing well for 2nd.

Draynay 31 Jan 2011 6:40 PM

Billy's Empire,

This was Mo's first workout at Palm Meadows Training Center.  Most times there are on the slow side.  I don't think TP wanted anything strenuous first time out.

To Honor and Serve was 9/17, right in the middle.  Another slow surface training center.  No concern here, their just shaking out the cobwebs.

Machen was a monster.  Running into a dawdling pace, Jamie was literally strangling him to keep some targets in front of him.  Machen could have gone to the lead at any time with that pace.  He split horses like a veteran and was just getting into gear.  With his breeding he's one to keep an eye on.

Ted from LA,

I caught that fever at the '68 Derby, my first time at the track, and I haven't been able to shake it.  Like you, it seems to flare up this time of year. I looked up Derby Fever in Dr. Drunkinbum's medical book.  It said there is no known cure.  It offered two ways to alleviate the symptons:

 1.  Watch races of improving three year olds, then predict who will beat who when they run against each other in graded company.  

 I try that each year--it doesn't work! It only makes it worse.

 2.  If they fever persists to Derby Day; drink Mint Juleps with Woodford Reserve.  It doesn't cure the fever but it sure eases the stress of picking the Derby 4 horse Ex. box.

Thanks Dr. D.

trackjack 31 Jan 2011 10:18 PM

Ted from LA it is.  When Dr. D speaks, people listen.  And since there's no place to go, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.  trackjack, when do you enter the Run for the Roses contest?  It seems risky to enter too early due to injuries, but if you wait too long, you miss scoring opportunities.  Also, pick out my stable and trainers for me.  That way, when I win, I'll invite you and your wife as my guests.  Thanks in advance.  

Ted from LA 31 Jan 2011 11:20 PM

Householder

   That puzzled me when I first saw that. The San Felipe at 8.5 is 3 weeks after the 7f San Vicente and 4 weeks before the 9f SA Derby so it fits for a progression from 7f to 8.5f to 9f but what about those that run on Feb 12 at 9f? There is no progression until the SA Derby on Apr 9th. If you want the 7f to 8.5 to 9f progression it works out good. The Robert B. Lewis, and San Felipe would both be 9f if I was doing it and I would have another race at 8.5 for 3yo  between the San Vicente and SA Derby. It could be tough to fill that many though and you don't want small fields. Tricky. The 8.5 is a bit of a breather between 2 at 9f and I guess that's OK. I'm OK now are you OK? What it comes down to is I'm glad they have that extra 9f regardless of the sequence. I'm excited after seeing The Factor, and then Dialed In and Runflatout. This is a very nice group of 3yo soon to be taking over the world !!!!!! Look out Mo, a challenge to the thrown is marching toward the castle !!!

Dr Drunkinbum 31 Jan 2011 11:34 PM

Draynay is correct to put a magnifying glass up to the Holy Bull field.  

Gourmet Dinner is a very honest horse, and as such he serves as a good barometer.  In the Cash Call Futurity, Gourmet Dinner finished alongside Clubhouse Ride(the former was 4th, the latter 3rd), 5 lengths behind Comma to the Top.  Dialed In was as visually impressive as a Derby prospect could be in the Holy Bull, but as a late runner he is not going to produce consistently fast times or high Beyers.  His Beyer of 96 appears valid, and places him alongside Comma to the Top(as using Gourmet Dinner as a point of comparison suggested), but about 7 lengths inferior to Uncle Mo.  

Clubhouse Ride, another consistent runner, came out of the Cash Call to be 2nd, beaten 4, by Tapizar in the Sham.  Again, this puts Dialed In and Comma to the Top with Tapizar right together in the tier just behind Uncle Mo and To and Honor and Serve.

Spped and brilliance doesn't always win the Derby, however, and of the "slower" horses behind Uncle Mo, Dialed In looks as good to me as any other.

GunBow 01 Feb 2011 3:58 AM

DrD: Now you know the laws of gravity deny any horse the chance to "poop up".  Also anxiously waiting the return of Rogue Romance...I really liked his lengthening stride in the BCJ.  And I don't think anyone can discount Pluck.  Awesome if he does the same on dirt!

Slew 01 Feb 2011 8:33 AM

Matthew: Passion's last win was February of 2010.  He's won 6 of 17, placed once, and in the rest did no better than 4th.  I think sprints have more $$ riding on them than marathons. Passion, himself, has been uncontollable.  He rockets around the track, then runs out of steam long before the race is over.  That's not training.  That's just letting the horse do whatever he wants to do.  He's 8 years old now, and does not seem willing to change his style at any time.  When he has won, he wasn't facing the strongest competition. Sorry, I've been amazed at times by him also...but just don't see him as a horse who can relax...until he's out of run.  It's just not an appropriate style for a marathon.

Slew 01 Feb 2011 9:04 AM

www.youtube.com/watch

here is a link to Machen's race

Billy's Empire 01 Feb 2011 10:37 AM

Billy's Empire,

I agree with you completely, To Honour and Serve worked 1:04 1/5 and Uncle Mo working 39 4/5, what a joke. Those times are so slow that I would not even consider them a breeze, more like a fast jog.

Ranagulzion,

Mo, Larry(Pletcher), and Curly(Repole) better take notice because Dialed In was breathing fire on sunday. His effortless victory is hard to ignore, Mo better watch his back. Your Mucho Macho man was very dull, but should only improve next time out. I hope Kathy Ritvo finds a new jockey after reading the headlines on Bloodhorse today. It seems that Eibar Coa thinks he is a big macho man for punching a woman. I hope the stewards hold true to the random alcohol testing, Coa and Desormeaux are the two most likely offenders.

Draynay,

How could I expect any different comments from you regarding Dialed In and his explosive victory. You are the one who wants to immortalize Uncle Mo for going from a maiden win to a graded stakes win. Well that is exactly what Dialed in did on sunday with only an aggressive hand ride by Leparoux. I'll take my chances with a fast closing son of Mineshaft over a fading Uncle Mo and Boys At Toscanova in any race. Sure the competition is a bit suspect, but exactly who has Mo defeated that is so special?

Forbidden Apple 01 Feb 2011 11:22 AM

Dr. D,

Did I see somewhere that you have The Factor #1 on your Derby list?  Isn't his sire a sprinter?  What the?  Who the?  How the?  Why the?

Ted from LA 01 Feb 2011 12:00 PM

Draynay : LOL, didn't take long and I was absolutely right.  No more mention of BAT, now it's UM and THS.  Damn, you're predictable LOL.  It seems that you always start with your picks and almost always ends up with my picks :)  I really really hope you didn't just put your curse on THS.  I've been high on this Mott horse for awhile now.

jayjay 01 Feb 2011 1:19 PM

"Runflatout ran as good or even better that The Factor"

I agree. His final furlong was in 11.9 after pressing very fast fractions. That was a solid field he beat. The time was fast but that track is always fast. It was 8 lenghts back to 3rd behind Baffert's horse.

Runflatout is by a son of AP Indy (like Dailed In) and has Mr. Prospector underneath (like Dailed In) and has a very nice female tail line. He has inbreeding with some solid stamina (Secretariat, Graustark, Key to the Mint, Northern Dancer)...but you will not hear as much about this horse because he has been trained by Carla Gaines and now Sadler and not Baffert or Pletcher or Steve A.

Anyone who saw his maiden win knows this horse is arguably every bit as fast as The Factor and seems rateable as well. The way he shook loose from Baffert's speedster and ran that final furlong under wraps in 11.9 was very impressive.

I agree with Draynay that the field Dailed In beat was about avg.--in fact, the maiden race that Runflatout ran in probably had as many legit T/C prospects (there were a few hyped horses in the 2nd at SA on Sat.). Still, Dailed In looked good beating that field.

Obviously, at this stage, Uncle Mo is still the horse to beat. But we have a long way to go.

Geronimo2123 01 Feb 2011 1:28 PM

Ranagulzion,

I cracked up when I saw the information on Reprized Halo:

“Started twice against Stakes Company as a maiden, to rather poor results”

Riveting Reason did a lot better against Stakes Company as a maiden.

“Returned to maiden ranks, was second for a $25K tag, then on Sept. 24, 2010, aired by 12 1/4 going a mile in maiden special weight company at Calder. Both races were in the slop”

Riveting Reason did not break his maiden by 12 1/4

“Back in Stakes Company Oct. 16, 2010, pulled $94.60 shocker to win Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder”

Riveting Reason got killed when he went back to Stakes company (Cash Call) It appears I will have to drop him and add Reprized Halo.

I have not seen a Halo stallion in the Derby mix in a long while. I am not sure what happened to Sunny’s Halo but Sunday Silence was ultra exceptional in Japan. If he makes the derby field and the track comes up muddy he is a must bet because of mud influence of Valid Appeal. His dam sire is a son of Kris S. You probably like this colt because you beloved Uncle Mo dam sire is also a son of Kris S. You therefore should like the Mass Media colt Manicero whose dam sire is Kris S. Interestingly, Manicero dam Ritzy Blitz was unraced but her dam was sired by Assert a grandson of Northern Dancer who was the 1982 Champion 3YO in France. There are two champions whose dams were sired by Kris S, War Chant and Zenyatta. Interesting colt!

Coldfacts 01 Feb 2011 1:45 PM

"What Dialed In did in the Holy Bull was astonishing!!! The fact that it was only his second start makes it even more so. What a great win!!!"

Zookeeper 31 Jan 2011 1:07 AM

I read that Dialed In was given a 96 BSF for the Holy Bull.

But Zookeeper, guess who I read also got a 96 Beyer? Runflatout!

He's in good company.

CV 01 Feb 2011 2:49 PM

Ranagulzion,

Do you realize that Runflatout was sired by Flatter a son of the A P Indy? The stallion you have evaluated as passing on slow development genes to his off springs. Flatter is one of number stallions by A P Indy that were produced from Mr. Prospector broodmares. The others are Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Indy King, Congrats (full brother to Flatter), and Accelerator. I am sure I have missed some from the combination. I guess the question is which will be the one to sire the first Kentucky Derby for their sire? Well Mineshaft has Dialed In, Flatter has Runflatout and Pulpit has Uncle Sam. Any bets?

In spite of Runflatout impressive maiden victory his pedigree fits nowhere on the derby chart. His sire Flatter placed in a G3 race.  No stallion with this lack of graded status has sired a derby winner in the last 74 year. Dynaformer, Elusive Quality, Pretendre and Distorted Humor were the lowest graded winners to sire derby winners during this period. They were all Gl1 winners. Of course these facts could mean nothing as Alibhai an unraced stallion sired Determine the 1954 derby winner. His dam line is very weak for the 10F of the derby. It is unlikely that a Grand Slam broodmares will be associated with a derby winner. It appears he will be a nice middle distance colt consistent with his dam sire that was likewise. Nice colt that extended his strides nicely in achieving maiden victory. Is he a potential derby winner? I doubt it but you never know.  

Coldfacts 01 Feb 2011 3:05 PM

Draynay,

We shall see.  As of now Dialed-In is #2 on my list behind "Mo".  THS is overrated, besides that, Bernadini has little shot at being a first crop Derby-winner-producing sire ...good luck with that one.

Sweet Ducky is a gutsy and tenacious colt that shouldn't be written off and Mucho Macho Man is just a big baby (June foal) that is getting better with experience.

Ranagulzion 01 Feb 2011 6:39 PM

DRAYNAY

You're wrong about Dialed In.

Mike Relva 01 Feb 2011 7:52 PM

Ranagulzion, last year was the worst crop of 3 year old horses I have seen in a long time.  This year is not much better from what I have seen.  Uncle Mo is 10 lengths better than anything I have seen this year and 90 days isn't going to change that.  You can talk about who is 2nd best between BAT and THS but who is on top is Uncle Mo by a mile.

Draynay 01 Feb 2011 8:44 PM

RANAGULZION

We will see about overrated,THAS doesn't fall in that area.

Mike Relva 01 Feb 2011 9:20 PM

DRAYNAY

Like I said if your Uncle Mo loses next month,you won't remember his name. Loyality isn't one of your strong points.

Mike Relva 01 Feb 2011 9:29 PM

The way I see it, we'll be listening to this Draynay Smoosh about his new found discovery until early March, then he will be on to another one.  I wonder which one it will be.  Oh yeah, Dialed In.  Then he'll act like no one heard of Dialed In until he informed us.

LAZMANNICK 01 Feb 2011 9:40 PM

Thanks for the link Billy.  Hadn't had time to see it yet.

Footlick 01 Feb 2011 10:59 PM

Ted from La,

Your welcome.

I wait as long as possible before entering my stable in roadtotheroses.com.  Down to the last minute, just like trackjack betting at the track.

One year I put them in early on the last day.  One of my horses was injured in a workout that day and off the trail.  I hadn't checked and when I found out the next day I was furious! My Derby Fever shot up.  I started the contest a horse short.

trackjack 01 Feb 2011 11:06 PM

Ted from LA

  Well !!! What the... Why I never... Why I oughtaaa... I defer to Slew or Coldfacts, one of the Derby ped experts but wasn't Mr Prospector a sprinter and hasn't he had some Derby success as a sire? War Front is already a versatile sire and will continue to be so. The Factor does not have a sprinters stride. He has a finely tuned, highly efficient, energy saving 50 miles per gallon at 150mph stride that any Derby horse would love to have. I concur that he will have to be slowed down so as to not break the sound barrier in The Derby but he is an extraordinary talent. He is still an unknown factor at the longer distances but my team of assistants have been working night and day in the lab(coffee breaks every two hours) and they have scientifically proven The Factor's ability to factor into a 10f race and possibly win it if he can get to the Big Dance. I reserve the right to dump him from the top spot and even the list if he refuses to slow down. We here at the institute encourage young men such as yourself to continue to ask questions such as who, what, why, where and therefore. Our motto is there is no such thing as a dumb question unless it's really stupid. Keep up the good work !!!

Dr Drunkinbum 02 Feb 2011 12:40 AM

I will remind a few of you of Dialed In when May comes around.

Draynay 02 Feb 2011 9:52 AM

Billy's Empire,

I liked the way Machen split horses and then pulled away with ease. The time seemed extremely slow, is that normal for Fairgrounds? I do not watch many races from the Fairgrounds, but he sure looked impressive and can only move forward off from that race. He finished up with much more to offer, he was looking to keep on running.

Draynay,

I am sure that 1 mile is not the ideal distance for Dialed In, he is crying out for 1 1/4 miles. Nick Zito has sent plenty of horses to the Tampa Bay Derby over the years. Maybe he will surprise the racing world and attack Uncle Mo in Tampa. You are 100% wrong when you say that 90 days can not change the level of competition that Mo will have to face as a 3 year old. One week can make a huge difference in a young horse, I have witnessed this with my own eyes. Last year I worked with a filly who had been working in average times at the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga Springs,NY. In her next work at the end of June, she absolutely freaked and finished her final 1/8 in less than 10 seconds! It can happen, you will hear trainers say "the light bulb switched on". You can not claim Mo to be the best horse in the land while sitting on your couch drinking Keystone Light. A new star can pop up any day of the week at any race track.

Dr. Drunkinbum,

You very well could be right about The Factor, as War Front is also the sire of Soldat. Being a son of Danzig, War Front can produce any kind, sprinter or distance and truf or dirt. Anyone who follows horse racing must be at least curious to see if The Factor will be a factor on the KY Derby trail. When I first watched his race, I was suspect because of the lightning fast times this year at the Santa Anita dragstrip.

Forbidden Apple 02 Feb 2011 10:38 AM

Laz : You're right about Machen, Jamie did one hell of a job riding him.  I'm not fond of chestnuts (except for Ferdinand) but he looked very strong in that race.  He was all over the place, once they get him to relax, I think he might be another one to keep an eye on.  The only I didn't like is that 1-9 odds hehe.

THS, Jaycito, Dialed In, Soldat, Machen, Tapizar, and ... and...I'm forgetting someone... umm...oh, UM!  Yeah, UM.

It's still early and things can change but if these horses stay on course and mature, it'd be a shame if any one of them never make it to the Derby because of earnings.

jayjay 02 Feb 2011 12:05 PM

DRAYNAY

You know what,the door swings both ways. I'm sure,many including myself will remind you about Mo come May,if you're still on him.

Mike Relva 02 Feb 2011 12:28 PM

Dr. D,

That doesn't surprise me that you're institutionalized.  Do they let you watch horse races there?  Can you get out on leave to attend races?  I love the name "The Factor" and will start paying more attention.  Thanks for the information.  Now be a good patient and go take your medications, Chief.  

Ted from LA 02 Feb 2011 1:34 PM

Ted from LA (Mr. Martini)

   You know it all comes down to the vote. We saw The Series last year. And we busted out to watch The Derby. You probably saw us in the infield.

Forbidden Apple

   Thanks for your response. If you look at the replay just check his stride out, and compare it to other sprinters.

Dr Drunkinbum 02 Feb 2011 2:12 PM

Dr. Drunkinbum

It looks like Santa Anita also played with the distance and the timing of the Robert B. Lewis as well.  Most likely in response to trainers demands.  When is was the Santa Catalina is was 1 1/16 not

1 1/8th and was ran in early March not February.  Longer earlier? Perhaps better.  Hope this helps, as I could not find a Kentucky Derby winner who had won the Santa Catalina since Ferdinand.  It will not be for another 2 months (Santa Anita Derby, April 9th) that the top 3 years olds in the west would have a chance to prep at this distance.  

Householder 02 Feb 2011 2:44 PM

anytime footlick! Just trying to keep on the ball this year. Need to carry over the winning from Breeders Cup. Have had a good start to 2011 betting, except on the horses I have interest in. They have not done much damit!

I will plan on seeing Trackjack, Ted From LA and the rest of the crew Derby week though. It is always a great week. Golf tournaments, parades, the boat race, Woodford, Woodford and Woodford, and the people watching is out of this world. Maybe I will do a backside twitter account...

Billy's Empire 02 Feb 2011 2:58 PM

Jason, when you starting a new blog? You have been quiet for a while. Still hungover? Sunburnt? Too many Cuban Cigars? I know they have Yeungling in FLA!! Did you fall of the stage at Pearl Jam ala Jimmy Buffet?

Billy's Empire 02 Feb 2011 3:02 PM

I have heard all this nonsense before.  When I saw Big Brown a few years ago I didn't have to see any other horse.  I knew he was a talent you don't see very often.  Uncle Mo is faster and more talented than Big Brown.  Uncle Mo did things you just don't see.  For example, he ran much faster than Blame or Zenyatta.  He was the fastest horse on the track that day at Churchill and he was only 2.  All of you can have your fun but understand this if Mo is in the gate in early May the only question will be how much does he win by and did he set a new record.

Draynay 02 Feb 2011 3:14 PM

Hold me back.  I no longer like the name The Factor after learning about what he is named after.  Just like if someone named a horse, say, Bloated Pig.  While I like it in theory, if I later learned it was named after, oh, say, Rush Limbaugh, then I would no longer appreciate the name.

Ted from LA 02 Feb 2011 4:26 PM

Draynay,

I have read a lot of your posts signifying your firm commitment to Uncle Mo. However, I do believe your should be a bit more measured in your conclusion.

“Uncle Mo is 10 lengths better than anything I have seen this year and 90 days isn't going to change that”

As you are well aware, horses do not win races standing in their stalls.. Street Sense won his BCJ by 131/2L gearing down in a far more impressive performance than that of Uncle Mo.  He made his belated 3YO debut in the TB Derby. He hooked Any Given Saturday and held on desperately to win by a nose.  His 131/2L performance meant nothing to Team Pletcher and AGS. Secretariat lost in the Wood. He entered his 3YO career with far more credential than UM. UM is a nice colt but not a world beater.

“Ranagulzion, last year was the worst crop of 3 year old horses I have seen in a long time”

Fly Down and Looking At Lucky finished 3rd & 4th respectively in the $5M, BCC to two of the best older horses in the country. They were by no means disgraced. How can you justify the above claim?

Coldfacts 02 Feb 2011 4:59 PM

Huh? What has Fly Down won? LAL is the best 3 year old? What did he win? The Preakness and the Haskell?  A filly did more than that!  It's pretty sad when the best older horse in the country right now is Morning Line.  By the way he will win the Donn.  UM comes into his 3 year old season every bit as good if not better than Secretariat.  Unlike Secretariat UM is undefeated and my guess is he will stay that way until Belmont.  Who knows what will happen at Belmont but he will still have my money.

Draynay 02 Feb 2011 5:26 PM

DRAYNAY

Yeah,and if he draws the one post it's O V E R. Of course,you will have a built in excuse why he doesn't win,right?

Mike Relva 02 Feb 2011 5:26 PM

I hear "the worst three year old crop in a long time" argument every year it seems like (with the exception of the Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin, Rags to Riches) year.  I don't know if it's true or not.  Most crops only have one or two standouts and some other hard knocking horses.  Don't know how anyone can really quantify "worst crops.". Much easier to pick out standout years.

2:24 02 Feb 2011 6:28 PM

Draynay

Yes Uncle Mo was all that and a bag of chips on BC day. Incidentally, he didn't run the fastest that day.  There were two Beyers that were faster, Blame and Zenyatta, and Big Drama's was the same 108 tha Uncle Mo got.

I hope that Uncle Mo runs well.  The sport needs all the help in can get.  But remember, there are no trash cans available for you this time.  You are behind this guy and you will stay there come hell or high water.

LAZMANNICK 02 Feb 2011 6:38 PM

"I have heard all this nonsense before"

Dray must be talking about his posts.

Footlick 02 Feb 2011 6:40 PM

jayjay

They are running Machen back in the Risen Star on I believe the 29th.  They justify running him back so soon (strange saying that isn't when in the old days they used to run in the Jersey Derby between the Preakness and the Belmont)because he basically only ran from the 8th pole home.  Honestly.  This guy could be a monster.

LAZMANNICK 02 Feb 2011 6:47 PM

Im back Billy. Why does anyone live anywhere but Florida or California?

New blog tomorrow. Had to catch on a few other things today. Hope everyone is well.

Jason Shandler 02 Feb 2011 7:49 PM

Sheikh Rashid just bought Morning Line

Footlick 02 Feb 2011 7:57 PM

2:24- couldn't agree more

Laz- you know that won't happen.

And then more nonsense............

Footlick 02 Feb 2011 7:59 PM

Dray/Jason,

Where did you guys hang out on Saturday? I was down at the bar on the lower level adjacent to the paddock and in the Paddock during the Sunshine Millions Classic while they were parading.

The Rock 02 Feb 2011 8:26 PM

Draynay

But remember, there are no trash cans available for you this time.  You are behind this guy and you will stay there come hell or high water.

LAZMANNICK 02 Feb 2011 6:38 PM

He will still be looking thru them because Calvin Borel is not the regular rider of Uncle Mo. He needs to find his backup, that will the horse that Calvin will be riding.

tcc 02 Feb 2011 8:42 PM

Damn. My beloved Morning Line just received the jinx. Damn.

Tiznowbaby 02 Feb 2011 8:47 PM

Ted from LA:

Thank God!  You had me worried there for a bit.  But if The Factor turns out to be a top notch horse, in 10 yr people will just remember him, not what he was named after.  How many still think about Big Brown being named after a UPS truck?

Draynay:

Uncle Mo better than Secretariat?  Come on!  If this is such a bad year for 3yr olds, UM being undefeated doesn't really say much.  Not that he isn't a fine horse, but you can't have it both ways.  After all, this is your argument for discounting Dialed In, i.e., nobody he beat was any good.

Besides, if there is such a thing as The Racing Gods, they just would find it too embarrassing to allow a horse with such a dumb name to win the Triple Crown.  This is probably why Smarty Jones and Big Brown couldn't do it.

Jean in Chicago 02 Feb 2011 9:01 PM

Draynay please.  Secretariat raced 9 times as a two year old.  He won 7 which should have been 8 if not for a terrible stewards decision in the Champagne.  To say Uncle Mo is better than Secretariat based on 3 races is insane.  

I still look forward to meeting you at the Tampa Bay Derby.  I too will be rooting for a romp by Mo.

2:24 02 Feb 2011 9:49 PM

LAZ

Well said,Draynay lives in a scary world. lol

Mike Relva 02 Feb 2011 9:51 PM

Big Brown was named after a UPS TRUCK??? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!  I thought he was named after human excrement.  I would have NEVER bet on him in the Belmont Stakes if I had this information before the race.  There should be an inquiry regarding this new found information.  How do I file this complaint?  TIA.  ~TFLA (that is short for Ted from LA... I am a busy man and need to shorten my moniker occasionally).  Is it a moniker or is that what Colonel Klink wore?

Ted from LA 03 Feb 2011 12:45 AM

Welcome back Jason and thanks for the work you do (and don't do).  ~TFLA

Billy's Empire, will you help carry my stuff on Derby Day?  I haven't seen Sherpa in a while and that worries TFLA.

Ted from LA 03 Feb 2011 12:56 AM

Everyone, Take note of the horses Draynay picks now, by the end of the year, they will have changed abrupty or just simply forgotten about.  You know how he is the infamous 'bandwagon' jumper. Or should I say, "What have you done for me lately' handicapper.   He never stays with one horse long because he jinxes it with his dreaded 'Draynay' curse,  Then the poor horse/horses never have a chance.

Tiznow baby,  ITs better to have a horse bought by the Sheik then to have it jinxed by Draynay. lol....

I'm not putting to much on any of these young dudes for the big race in May, simply because anything is going to happen and the one you think is going to win, he won't. I say it will be a toss up and I'm keeping my picks close to the vest. I know it's a colt out there thats not being viewed yet and he is waiting in the wings to sprout, and he will the first Saturday in May. The good thing is, HE won't have to worry about the infamous 'Jinx' by Dray.    sodapop

sodapopkid 03 Feb 2011 6:20 AM

This year's Donn is a much better race than last year's in that it's pretty evenly matched although I think FD is the horse to beat here.  I'm betting on Fly Down taking this bunch easily as long as he doesn't get too far back.   If he gets over his long vacation in good order, I think he's tough.  It's going to be a lively pace with SE and Morning Line up front, I'll play him with Giant Oak, Morning Line and Rule.  Throw in Ron The Greek and Eldaafer for the superfecta :)

Coldfacts : Draynay doesn't know how to read how the horses actually run their race.  He just looks at the lowest odds and then checks the racing form what the final time is in their last race... then proclaims them HOTY LOL.  Actually, I maybe wrong, he might be using a dartboard to pick his horse, or whichever horse Jason blogs about.

Draynay : I hope you bet the farm on him on Derby day and Preakness.  He won't run in the Belmont, I guarantee you that.  

jayjay 03 Feb 2011 7:23 AM

The Donn is loaded, but Morning Line is not the best older horse and he will not win the Donn. I want Revenge has been burning up the track in the morning, but the 6 month break is questionable. Rule, second start off a 10 month layoff, he needed the last and still finished better than Morning Line. Fly Down is a threat as well, but has also had a nice 90 day break. Giant Oak looks like he could be the one to beat after the Clark, but I am going with one of my old favorites Square Eddie. leave him alone up front, and you will not catch him.

Square Eddie

Rule

Morning Line

Giant Oak

Would pay well if I hit it....

Billy's Empire 03 Feb 2011 8:59 AM

I am betting on recency winning out. I do think that Fly Down and I want Revenge will have good years, but not first back

Billy's Empire 03 Feb 2011 10:26 AM

Can see Fly Down winning the Donn.

Mike Relva 03 Feb 2011 10:38 AM

sodapopkid- Draynay did pick Morning Line.  That's why the horse was cursed, I assume.

Footlick 03 Feb 2011 10:40 AM

Billy-I thought it was intriguing that they shipped Square Eddie.  He has a great shot if he runs his race.

Footlick 03 Feb 2011 10:42 AM

Jason,

Welcome back, looking forward to your next article.

Billy's Empire,

Looking forward to meeting up at Derby week.  Can I use your 4 on the Donn for my ex box?  If I hit it I'll give you a big "Thanks".

TFLA,

Who are you going to get to help you "Carry Back" all those empty Mint Julep glasses out of CD?

trackjack 03 Feb 2011 10:53 AM

Billy- Square Eddie will finish up the track there's way too much other speed in the race.

Blocked! Blocked! 03 Feb 2011 12:18 PM

Zookeeper;

I nearly forgot to congratulate you! Runflatout ran a magnificent race. I honestly believe that he is something special. He ran like a potential star. A stakes win could very well be in his future!

Lazmannick;

I agree wholeheartedly concerning Machen. I loved the way he split horses at the top of the stretch and drew off so easily. He did drift out a bit, but it was a remarkable performance indeed.

-Keelerman

-Keelerman 03 Feb 2011 1:34 PM

Blocked,GP is a front runners track. Rule will rate like last race. What other real speed is there? Ron the Greek off the pace

IWR off the pace

Fly Down Off the Pace

Morning Line will be close to the front.

Giant Oak off the pace

Eldaafer off the pace

On another thought, where is Succesful Dan? he beat giant oak in the clark. Was Dq'ed.

Billy's Empire 03 Feb 2011 1:38 PM

Billy: No works for Successful Dan this year. Not sure what his issue is...

Jason Shandler 03 Feb 2011 1:41 PM

Billy's Empire,

Based on Square Eddie's last race(6 1/2 F 1:13 flat), he looks scary in the Donn. As we all know the Gufstream strip is very kind to speed. I was never a fan of Square Eddie's, but I am intrigued by the way he has returned to racing after stud duty. The horse to fear in deep stretch is Fly Down, even though he never wins.

What happened with Prince Will I Am, I thought he was being pointed to the Donn or G.P. Turf Hcp.?

The 9th race on friday at Gulfstream looks interesting, i have my eye on Doe Run at 6-1.

Forbidden Apple 03 Feb 2011 1:45 PM

You all see the allowance race at Gulfstream with El Grayling and Shadow Warrior? Should be a nice race.

Billy's Empire 03 Feb 2011 1:56 PM

Billy- Rule and Morning Line won't let Square Eddie the sprinter catch a breather, then IWR will make his move around the turn.That's too much pace pressure for a horse not known as a 9f horse,IMO.

Blocked! Blocked! 03 Feb 2011 1:59 PM

Square Eddie is an unknown to me, just like Crown of Thorns was. He could just jump up and suprise the crap out of you.

Billy's Empire 03 Feb 2011 2:28 PM

Gee, let me help you guys.  Secretariat as a 2 year old won a bunch of sprints. A third of the races were Maiden Races or Allowance races.  He beat the mighty Angle Light as a 2 year old.  You know the Angle Light that won one major race and then never won anything again.  Like Sham who won the Santa Anita and never won another race.  These are the mighty horses Secretariat had to face.  Secretariat was a very good 2 year old but he was not perfect and not as fast as Uncle Mo at 2.  Racing talent was very thin in 1973 with most of the top talent out by the time The Belmont was over.  A few months later when Secretariat went to the breeders shed Forego was one of the few left standing and dominated weak horses for years.  Thank goodness Affirmed, The Bid, and Slew came along because the early 70's was very very weak.

Draynay 03 Feb 2011 3:05 PM

Didn't Sham run the third fastest Derby ever?

Ted from LA 03 Feb 2011 3:24 PM

DRAYNAY

Uncle Mo is very talented,but let's don't hand him the Derby just yet. Please don't bring your usual spin if he loses next month,and  jump off him and pretend like you never was on him,you know kinda like  Quality Road.

Mike Relva 03 Feb 2011 4:14 PM

I guess Stop the Music doesn't count.

Footlick 03 Feb 2011 5:06 PM

It must be because of an unjust DQ.  Even though he finished ahead of him.

Footlick 03 Feb 2011 5:07 PM

Draynay, For all you know, Uncle Mo may have run his best race in the BC. Remember Declan's Moon? He ran a 107 in the Del Mar Futurity and look what he turned into as a 3 year old, an allowance horse! Wait until Uncle Mo actually wins a race against 3 year olds before you start declaring him the next Secretariat. Andy Beyer calculated that Secretariat's beyers as a 2 year old were consistently in the 120s. Uncle Mo's best was a 108. Comparing Uncle Mo to Secretariat is absolutely ridiculous and further displays your lack of understanding of the game.

stevebiscuit 03 Feb 2011 5:53 PM

Draynay is totally right about Uncle Mo vs Secretariat!  Secretariat just sprinted in all of his...9...starts as a 2 year old.  He ran once at 5 1/2 furlongs, 3 times at 6 furlongs, twice at 6 1/2 furlongs and, oh yeah, once at a mile and twice at 1 1/16 mile.  

Secretariat finished first (tho dq'd to 2nd) in a tepid 1:35 in the 1 mile Champagne.  Uncle Mo tore up the track in his Champagne in 1:34.5.

Secretariat galumphed along in a dawdling 1:42.4 in the 1 1/16 mile Laurel Futurity while Uncle Mo nearly broke the sound barrier in the Breeder's Cup 1 1/16 mile in 1:42.6.

Of course, Secretariat, less than 3 weeks later, again ran 1 1/16 mile in a pedestrian. 1:44.2.  That was just a paid workout.

And forget poor old Forego.  The poor old dear only won 8 Eclipse awards and was 3 times Horse of the Year, beating slugs like Wajima, Honest Pleasure and Foolish Pleasure.

Hey, Uncle Mo may be all that but why don't we see how he does once he actually races as a three year old.

merlinmerry 03 Feb 2011 6:03 PM

Lol. The great Wajima? You have to be kidding.  What Triple Crown races did he win in 75 ?

Draynay 03 Feb 2011 6:39 PM

Draynay:  I'm sure you've heard of a horse named Forego from the weak crop of 3 year olds from 1973.  Secretariat beat him fairly handily in the Kentucky Derby.  And Sham, he was weak, having run the Kentucky Derby in under 2:00.

I know you have a lot of knowledge about horse racing. But sometimes your statements, obviously meant to rile folks up, makes it seem like you know very little.

2:24 03 Feb 2011 7:08 PM

Yep…………..I like Uncle Mo and of course Draynay is right about Secretariat sprinting his way through his two year old year, which is what horses did back in the day when many of them ran more races at two than today’s starts do in their entire career.

Yep………sprinting is obviously not the way to go.  I guess that’s why Secretariat won the one mile Gotham in 1.33.2, the Derby in 1.59.2, the Preakness in 1.53.2 and the Belmont in 2.24.  Then to prove that sprinting at two was no fluke he came back and won by 9 in 1.47 for 9F and of course to prove that that was no fluke he ran 9F in 1.45.2 two races later.

LAZMANNICK 03 Feb 2011 8:41 PM

Laz- you know that is nothing compared to Uncle Mo's 3 races

Footlick 03 Feb 2011 9:25 PM

I have to step in here.

Draynay:

I've seen Secretariat live at the races and the farm.  I've seen Uncle Mo live at the BC.  Uncle Mo is no Secretariat.  You should have stopped the comparison at two.  In addition to LAZMANNICK'S post of times (thanks), Secretariat, as a 3 year old, beat the best older handicap horses in training, including Riva Ridge, in the Marlboro Cup in a pedestrian 1:45.2 for a NEW WORLD RECORD for 9F. (Watch it).  He also went on to beat the best older grass horses twice at 1 1/2 mile(new course record) and 1 5/8. (run in a bog at Woodbine.)

Uncle Mo is a good one and I hope he can carry it at three.  But unless he can approach Secretariat's record as a three year old, it's way too early to be comparing them.

I'll be at the Tampa Bay Derby to scream Mo on, looking forward to meeting you.

trackjack 03 Feb 2011 11:05 PM

Ok. Let's try not to dress up history please.  Sham won one big race and then NEVER won again. Yes he ran fast in the Kentucky Derby but who cares he lost. Forego as a 3 year old did nothing.  He did well after better horses retired.  Secretariat was great but he also threw in some real clunkers. All of you seem to forget that.

Draynay 03 Feb 2011 11:06 PM

Oh yeah - Wajima.  He didn't run in the Triple Crown classics due to soundness problems.  He didn't start his 3 year old season until June of 1975.  He only won the Monmouth Handicap, the Travers, the Governor's Stakes, the Marlboro Cup and the Marylander Handicap (setting a track record.) He was syndicated for 7.2 million and voted the Eclipse award for Champion 3 Year Old Colt even tho he didn't compete in the classics.  What a sorry plug he was.  

merlinmerry 03 Feb 2011 11:30 PM

What "clunkers" would those be Draynay?  The Wood and The Whitney, where he had ailments that would have caused the fragile horses of today to scratch and be out for three months and he still finished 3rd and 2nd.  Or perhaps you're talking about the Woodward, where he was a last minute replacement for Riva Ridge, wasn't being trained for the race and still ran second to a horse that ran the mile and a half in 2:25 and change.  Which of those are clunkers?  You say let's not rewrite history but that's exactly what you're doing.

2:24 04 Feb 2011 10:26 AM

Draynay,

You might be the only person on the planet who thinks Uncle Mo is a better horse than Secretariat and Forego. All you are doing is clinging to the new kid on the block and hyping up his victory over Boys At Tosconova. Secretariat raced 9 times as a 2 year old, that might end up being more races than Mo's entire career. Foolish is the best word to describe your blurred opinions. Let me know when Mo runs 1 mile in 1:33 2/5, 1 1/8 in 1:45 2/5, 1 1/4 in 1:59 2/5, 1 1/2 in 2:24! Not to mention Secretariat's victories in the 1 1/2 mile Man o'War and 1 5/8 mile Canadian International on turf.

Based on your donkey like knowledge of horse racing, Ruffian must have been an average horse too.

Forbidden Apple 04 Feb 2011 10:48 AM

Forbidden Apple, I did not become the world's greatest handicapper by accident.  I was blessed with the gift at birth and I have taken my amazing powers and on occasions shared it with many of you.  So far Uncle Mo has only raced as a 2 year old and what I have said is Uncle Mo at 2 is better than Forego or Secretariat at 2.  I stand by that statement.  Secretariat lost as a 2 year old while Uncle Mo is undefeated winning back to back G1 races and the 2 year old championship. How many G1 races did Forego win at 2? How many at 3?  I am very excited about his chances at the Triple Crown.  The first 2 legs will be no problem but horses skipping the Preakness to be fresh in the Belmont is a problem. I am keeping my fingers crossed that he has enough left in the tank to get the job done. Go Mo !

Draynay 04 Feb 2011 12:29 PM

Um, Draynay, races weren't graded in 1972 when Forego and Secretariat were 2.

2:24 04 Feb 2011 2:17 PM

The "second coming" of Secretariat (Easy Goer) got beat by some $17,000 Halo horse that could not even meet his researve.  He didn't win a stakes race until February.  Tell me where Ferdinand, Winning Colors, Alysheba, or Real Quiet were in January!  All, with the exception of Winning Colors, had LOSING records some with NO stakes starts.  

The recent HOY was so ugly from Ringworm her price slid to $60,000 roughly the price of a SUV.    

Keep telling us Uncle Mo can't be beat.  The Breeder's Cup Juv. winner is like 1 for 26 for producing the Kentucky Derby winner.  He's cursed by this, the potential entry in the Wood, and by the "world's greatest handicapper." This is a lot to overcome.  

Householder 04 Feb 2011 2:34 PM

Draynay, as a handicapper why don't you try and search for value instead of picking a favorite who's doing something he's never done before, beat 3 year olds! And I seriously doubt he'll be able to carry his speed a mile and a quarter with the weak schedule Pletcher has mapped out for him.

stevebiscuit 04 Feb 2011 4:36 PM

Forego didn't race at 2.  By Draynay reasoning, that means he was unbeaten at 2.

merlinmerry 04 Feb 2011 4:37 PM

Steve: That "weak" schedule Pletcher has mapped out for him was good enough for the last four Derby winners. Two preps and Derby is now the trend in case you havent noticed, and has worked out pretty well. Fast is fast. He will likely have the lead at the eighth-pole. Do you know how many horses have won the Derby since 1950 when having the lead at the eighth-pole? 46 of 60. And of the 14 that didnt win, 11 finished second.

Jason Shandler 04 Feb 2011 4:46 PM

Steve:

Most of those Derby winners that hit the 8th pole in the lead didn't wire the field and certainly weren't in the top 2 or 3 all the way around.  Many horses came from out of it but reached the lead or were close to it by the 8th pole.

LAZMANNICK 04 Feb 2011 8:25 PM

Biscuit, let me do you a favor.  Bet big on UM to win and put a 100 on anything Borel is riding for the heck of it.  Enjoy the Derby and try to figure out the bottom of the ticket.  The top of the ticket is reserved for UM.  90 days is not enough time for horses to start suddenly running 110 Beyers.

draynay 04 Feb 2011 11:42 PM

WOW on the 1/8 pole stats. Does this change the way we should handicap the race?  Ted from LA has been focusing too much on who could win rather than who will be leading at the 1/8th pole.  He also focuses too much on birthday and anniversary dates.

Ted from LA 05 Feb 2011 12:59 AM

Bid

I think that most believe that Uncle Mo is definitely the one to beat, not only for the Derby, but the Preakness as well.  My concern is his light racing schedule.  He is a forceful colt, probably because he knows he is boss, and possibly not one to rate all that kindly.  The key for a horse like him is to get him to relax in the middle part of the race, which of course you can't do while you are standing in your stall.  He might he physically strong, but IMO he has not had the proper racing foundation to prepare himself both physically and mentally for a tough TC campaign.  That’s why I have my concerns at this time, not doubts, but concerns.  Others are coming along basically for that one shot at the Derby and whatever happens after that is a bonus, at least that’s what it seems like to me.  Uncle Mo seems to be that once every 15 or 20 years type of colt and I hope that he doesn’t get short changed.

Of the TC winners since Whirlaway, their starts at two were as follows:

• Whilraway…….16.

• Count Fleet………15.

• Citation…….9.

• Secretariat…………….9.

• Affirmed………….9.

• Alydar…(2nd in every race)……….10.

• Seattle Slew……..3.

LAZMANNICK 05 Feb 2011 11:17 AM

Dont worry at the 1/8th pole Uncle Mo will be backing up just like his daddy Indian Charlie did.

3X 05 Feb 2011 12:13 PM

Am I the only sane person here? The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest races to win in the world. Since when has it been simple. Horses who seemed to be an even greater lock than Uncle Mo have finished up the track in the Derby. Heck, what if he draws the rail? He'd have no chance and all of this speculation would be for nothing! Forgive me for not praising Uncle Mo and declaring him the next Triple Crown winner. You guys criticized the Zenyatta "zealots" for comparing her to Secretariat and are now doing the same with a horse who has only run 3 races against a group of both physically and mentally inexperienced horses. Throw out all the stats you want Jason, but the Kentucky Derby has never been that simple.

stevebiscuit 05 Feb 2011 7:35 PM

GIANT OAK takes the Donn!!   Got all the exotics although I only hit a fitty cent super.  Fly Down was just too far back which is what I was worried about.  I would've had the super for $2 if FD just got in the top 4.  I'll take it though, it's a good day!

jayjay 05 Feb 2011 9:49 PM

Jason : How about I "give" you another freebie $100 and let's bet that Uncle Mo will not be in the lead at the 1/8th pole in the Derby.  It's not a win or lose bet, but that Uncle Mo will NOT be in the lead at the 8th pole.  We can also bet on the WIN and I'll "give" you another freebie $100 that Uncle mo will NOT win the Derby.  That's an easy $200!  What do you say ?

I already know where to send the money so I won't have to email you. It's a sure bet, history is on your side, the odds are on your side (46 out of 60 you said!)  Let me know :)

I think Draynay has not been taking his meds.  LOL, you'd have to excuse him, he doesn't know anything about Secretariat.  I would advice that you at least watch the latest Secretariat movie, it's not one for historians, it's mostly for the average horse racing fans, like you.  At least you'll learn something about Secretariat.

jayjay 05 Feb 2011 10:10 PM

stevebiscuit, sometimes it IS that easy.  Big Brown was CLEARLY the best horse a few years back and he got what many thought was a horrible post.  UM is better and faster than Big Brown.  I know a star when I see one and UM is the real deal.  Sit back enjoy and cheer him on for the TC.

Draynay 06 Feb 2011 1:46 AM

Jayjay: Let's wait to see if the horse is in the race before making any bets. If he is healthy and makes it to the gate I will likely make the bets with you. Be stupid to make a wager three months in advance without any odds, dont you think? Now, if you want to offer me 5-1 odds on that bet I would strongly consider it now.

Jason Shandler 06 Feb 2011 9:22 AM

Laz- that is my concern with the horses running all three races.  To me they do not have the foundation to get through all three races.  Those few races and two preps may get them a Derby win, but then you have two more races in 5 weeks.  That's why so many run in only one or two of the races.  Since this is about winning the Derby, and not yet the TC, nobody is concerned with the fewer races because it has been working for Derby winners.  But we have also seen it take it's toll, I think.

Footlick 06 Feb 2011 9:25 AM

Agree with you on your last post stevebiscuit

2:24 06 Feb 2011 10:32 AM

Draynay,

Thank you so much for giving out Dublin on last years KY Derby trail. He was the first horse I scratched off as a win candidate in every one of his starts. You seem to be the worlds greatest chalk eater.

Does anyone have any predictions on the Hallandale Beach today at Gulfstream, race 9? I love Brilliant Speed today, he is sitting on a big race.

Forbidden Apple 06 Feb 2011 10:34 AM

Billy the Kid-  What did I tell you.Am I good or am I good?

Blocked! Blocked! 06 Feb 2011 12:27 PM

Draynay

Big Brown's Derby and three year old crop was weak.  Guess who won the Belmont to go along with his maiden win, his only lifetime wins.  And of course, let's not forget that macho Again was second iin the Preakness.  You're supposed to be the expert and yet you can;'t even recognize that this year's crop is much better and that is without even including the top three.

LAZMANNICK 06 Feb 2011 12:53 PM

Draynay, Big Brown had the luxury of running against an extremely weak Derby field. Drawing post position 20 didn't matter because the rest of the field couldn't keep up. He had practically no speed to his inside which made finding a good striking position considerably easy. Uncle Mo isn't going to face the same group of slouches. Besides, post 20 isn't nearly as bad as post 1 for a horse like Uncle Mo. He hasn't displayed brilliant speed out of the gate, which he is something he will need, otherwise he'll finish last.

And don't pretend like you're the only one who thought Uncle Mo was special. I don't think he's as good as Eskendereya yet and certainly not Secretariat. What are you gonna say Draynay if Uncle Mo finishes up the track in the Derby?

stevebiscuit 06 Feb 2011 2:09 PM

Jason : My bet proposal had nothing to do with the odds.  It doesn't matter if UM runs at 1-9 or 30-1.  I just thought from your previous post that you're high on this horse just like Draynay is.  You took time to research about the 1/8th pole stats and you said it yourself, more than likely, he'll be in the lead at the 1/8th pole hence the bet.

His odds on Derby day will have nothing to do on how he runs in the race.  So the only thing to worry about is whether he actuallly runs, and if he does, will you take the bets ?

jayjay 06 Feb 2011 4:32 PM

I do remember in recent Derby's there were two undefeated colts that went into the Derby and people still questioned if they could win, Smarty Jones and Barbaro, 4-1 and 6-1 respectively in the Derby. Anytime I can get a $10 and $14 win payout on an undefeated horse in the Derby, I will take it.

Billy's Empire 07 Feb 2011 8:40 AM

Blocked, you were right on the money with Square Eddie. Still got the tri with the other 3, but did not pay that well.

How did Fly Down and Turbulent Descent work out for you Chalk Revla?

Billy's Empire 07 Feb 2011 10:17 AM

stevebiscuit, you have no idea what you are talking about.  Big Brown won from the 20 post beating horse like Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Smooth Air, Visionaire, Gayego, Colonel John and Eight Belles.  That is not a weak field in anyones mind but your own.  Last year the field was much much weaker.

draynay 07 Feb 2011 12:26 PM

Billy Billy BIlly : I hope you bet the farm on UM on Derby day.  I know you treat Draynay's words as gospel lol.  You would have to bet the farm on him to make any money at all lol.

jayjay 07 Feb 2011 1:18 PM

Indian Charlie entered the Kentucky Derby undefeated and was the favorite at 2.70-1.  He had 3 preps at 7 furlongs, 1 mile, and the 1 1/8th Santa Anita Derby a race Real Quiet also participated in.  

Kentucky Derby Chart.

"Indian Charlie held on well to the final furlong and weakened."

Householder 07 Feb 2011 1:27 PM

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Yes,I lost. Perhaps should start listening to you...not! BTW would be great if you could figure out how to spell my name correctly,if it didn't prove too stressful. lol

Mike Relva 07 Feb 2011 6:53 PM

Draynay, the only true mile and a quarter grade 1 dirt horse you mentioned was Colonel John, and he got fanned 12 wide going into the stretch. The rest you mentioned, were either sprinters, turf horses, grade 3 horses or just plain overrated. If you actually read the comments on this blog you'll see that I'm not the only one who believes that the 2008 3 year old crop was weak. Had Big Brown been running in 2006 or 2007 he wouldn't have stood a chance.

stevebiscuit 07 Feb 2011 8:00 PM

Jayjay, newsflash buddy. I could care less what Dray says. I can form my own opinions on horses unlike some on this blog who are always following the rest of the pack. You keep wathcing your post parades and not handicapping the races, and I will worry about myself. Second, only a fool "bets the house" on a low priced favorite in the Derby. If I am going to spend money on Derby day, it is going to be on exotics, b/c they pay. The average exacta is over $200 and the average tri over $1200. Pick 3's and pick 4's also pay quite nicely on Derby day.

My statement above was just pointing out that 2 undefeated colts went into the Derby at nice odds and dominated the race. Will it happen again, maybe, but we will not know until May 7th. It could be Mo, Dialed In, Brethern, etc. I did not ever reference UM in my post, but thanks for assuming that is who I was referenceing. He is not even on the top of my Derby list.

Stevebiscuit. Pletcher used that same "weak Schedule" last year with Super Saver and won the Derby, same with Big Browns "weak Schedule" and Street Sense Weak schedule, and Mine That Bird's weak schedule. Maybe he will get the distance, maybe he won't, but one thing is for sure, he likes the track at CD. So does TAPIZAR

Billy's Empire 08 Feb 2011 9:27 AM

Billy Billy Billy : Umm, yeah sure, I totally believed what you said in your last post... I mean totally.  And besides, what made you think I was assuming you were talking about UM ?  Maybe I was telling you to bet the farm on UM based on your keen respect for Draynay's words and picks lol.  Draynay seems to think that UM will roll on by his preps and go to the Derby undefeated, so even if I was assuming, it would've been a pretty safe assumption.

I have to give you credit though, at least in the sense that there's no sure thing in the Derby, you're able to differ with Draynay's opinion. LOL

Someone asked about Graded earnings list before and I told them about The Downey Profile page, looks like they already have the list of graded earnings (so far).  They also have a good list of their top choices (they call them the "Looking Good" group).  Not sure if Jason will allow this link but I'll try anyway :

thedowneyprofile.com

jayjay 08 Feb 2011 1:01 PM

Billy, don't you think other horses that fit the same criteria have lost the Derby? Those horses you listed won the Derby because that schedule allowed them to peak at the right time, but that doesn't mean that it's the key to the race. I wouldn't have been surprised if Pletcher used his typical blanket approach when training his horses. Don't forget that Pletcher has one of the worst records in Derby history and it wasn't until just last year that he got lucky that Calvin was riding his horse, along with the slop and Lookin At Lucky's poor post position. It seems that the stars need to align for Pletcher to win, even when he has 3 or 4 more horses than everyone else.

stevebiscuit 08 Feb 2011 2:17 PM

Stevebiscuit, I would just stop because with every word you type you proof just how little you really know.  Fact is Big Brown from the 20 hole going 4 wide all the way around winning by 5 over Eight Belles is one of the all time best Derby performances like it or not.  Billy's Empire, Lol.  The fact that you like a slow mover like Tapizar tells me all I need to know about your handicapping skills.

Draynay 08 Feb 2011 5:15 PM

Draynay, if beating a filly who's moments away from breaking down is impressive, then anything is. Eight Belles was a nice filly, but she certainly wasn't great. Barbaro's Derby was great because it was against a very strong Derby field. Big Brown beat nothing. The only good dirt horse was Colonel John, the rest were sprinters and turf horses.

It's kinda funny seeing you try to be condescending, especially since you're wrong all the time. When people prove you wrong you duck their comments. What's the matter? Can't you handle the truth?

stevebiscuit 08 Feb 2011 8:11 PM

Well Draynay, since I have it on good authority that you bet the favorite every time I'd say your handicapping skills might be in question as well. :)

Tom F V 08 Feb 2011 9:09 PM

"Those horses you listed won the Derby because that schedule allowed them to peak at the right time, stevebiscuit 08 Feb 2011 2:17 PM"

That exact scenario is what has me a little worried about Mo.

Tom F V 08 Feb 2011 9:12 PM

My problem with the two preps is that those horses never make it through the Triple Crown.  At least Street Sense did well in the Fall, but it didn't do Super Saver any good, and Big Brown was never the same either.  I still say a horse needs a legitimate foundation at two.  But that's just my opinion.  Street Sense at least had 5 races at two.

Footlick 08 Feb 2011 11:24 PM

STEVEBISCUIT

Good points,some can't handle the truth when living in "neverland". lol

Mike Relva 09 Feb 2011 10:47 AM

Footlick - agree completely with your last post.

2:24 09 Feb 2011 10:51 AM

Tom F V, don't ever challenge a expert.  My knowledge is vast and far superior to anything you have ever seen.  

Draynay 09 Feb 2011 7:07 PM

REALLY? Now that is about the funniest thing I've heard in quite a long time. You are oblivious as to who or what I might know.

Are you always this delusional?

a expert or an expert?

Sorry but it doesn't take an expert to bet the favorite.  If you don't want people knowing your true betting habits be careful who you hang out with, they may know real people and expose your dirty laundry- he wins but he always bets the favorite. :)

Tom F V 09 Feb 2011 11:07 PM

Tom, ask Jason if the win tickets at 13 to 1 and 11 to 1 and 6 to 1 were chalk tickets.  I won 2k with Jason standing right next to me. Go Paco !

draynay 11 Feb 2011 12:37 PM

Hmmm, not what I heard from someone around you at Keeneland.

Tom F V 11 Feb 2011 3:10 PM

Keeneland? Yes it's true it was a bit chalky that day but I was cashing tickets!

Draynay 11 Feb 2011 7:03 PM

Draynay : There's a big difference between cashing tickets and winning.  If I have to guess, I bet you cashed tickets that paid $5 (on a heavy favorite)  after betting $20 on the race.  LOL

jayjay 12 Feb 2011 1:54 PM

Jayjay

He won a cool two grand.  That's enough to buy some top quality truth syrum.

LAZMANNICK 12 Feb 2011 8:20 PM

jayjay, I put 300 bucks down on Brethren to win at even money.  The guy next to me told me I was crazy and there was no value on that bet.  He showed me his 54 dollar ticket using 4 horses in front of Brethren in his Tri.  When the race was over I collected a little less than even money but was happy to put nearly 600 bucks back in my pocket.  The guy with the 54 dollar ticket with all the value left his ticket on the table and I never saw him again.  I guess he took all that value home with him.

Draynay 14 Feb 2011 5:24 PM

Draynay : Good for you.  I don't play win bets specially on an even money favorites.  LOL   I hit that trifecta 4 times all because I love the combinations of 10-4-5 :)  I didn't even have to read the form, I woke up that day and I said, I'm playing 10 with 4,5 with 4,5.  I would've had the trifecta twice if 4 or 5 beat Brethen.

jayjay 14 Feb 2011 7:01 PM


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