Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

I just took a quick peek at Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and it's pretty astounding to see that ‘all other 3-year-olds is even-money and Uncle Mo is the individual favorite at 2-1. Why anyone would settle for those odds on either is beyond me, but if you like any of the other 23 horses on there it's a good thing for you.

As of 3 p.m. EST on Friday with more than $47,000 in the pool, 17 of the 23 horses are 60-1 or higher. The odds on many of these high-priced horses, including 99-1 longshots Astrology, Clubhouse Ride, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner, J P's Gusto, Indian Winter, Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Silver Medallion, Sweet Ducky, and Tiz Blessed are sure to go down, but how far down? If ‘all others' and Uncle Mo both keep getting pounded, by the time the pool closes at 6 p.m. on Sunday there are still going to be a lot of huge prices.

I'm really not that intrigued by most of the horses listed in pool 1, but if the odds stay close to where they are now I will strongly consider putting a few bucks on Astrology, Brethren (21-1), Indian Winter, and Stay Thirsty (92-1). At those odds, why not take a small shot? I think Uncle Mo is the deserving favorite as we sit here today, but you will be able to get a minimum of 2-1 on him on May 7, so why risk it now?

Here is a link to the Future Wager and a couple of quick questions to consider.

Also, if you're interested in the new Triple Crown Prospects package that Blood-Horse has put together, here is some information on how to get it.

176 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Draynay

Uncle Mo will be 8 to 5 on Derby Day. He is just that good.

18 Feb 2011 4:21 PM
stevebiscuit

Odds don't equal results.

18 Feb 2011 4:32 PM
Brian Russell

The problem with this bet is that the pool does not close until after the big Saturday preps are run.  This creates two problems.  First, anyone who bets a horse running on Saturday before he runs is, to put it kindly, not particularly bright.  Second, the idea of a future wager is to be rewarded for being right early.  If you, say, like a 10-1 shot in the Risen Star that subsequently wins, would it not be nice to be able to bet him the Derby future wager before the race has run?  If they closed the pool prior to 5PM on Saturdays, I have no doubt their handle would go WAY up.

18 Feb 2011 5:37 PM
horseback ridin34

i think that uncle moe has the best shot to win this years kentucky derby! :)

18 Feb 2011 10:11 PM
Ted from LA

Dr. Drunkinbum and his friend P.T. Barnum have a separate betting pool for this Kentucky Derby.  Come one come all.  You will not find a better bet than betting on the winner of a 20 horse race being run in 2 1/2 months.  Get Dr. D's odds while they are hot.  

18 Feb 2011 10:48 PM
Ted from LA

I agree with Brian Russell.  And as board moderator, I would like to welcome you and thank you for keeping it clean.  If you're going to run a gimmick bet like this, at least lock the odds when the bet is made.  Ted from LA would rather invest his money at this point in a new Flobee so he has the slickest vacuum haircut at Churchill Downs come May 7.

18 Feb 2011 10:57 PM
John T

The odds for this years Kentucky

Derby prove one thing,with just one

more week to go before March absolutely nothing has been sorted

out so far.

18 Feb 2011 11:21 PM
Matthew W

Draynay if Uncle Mo keeps it up/ keeps winning impressively, he'll be lower than 8/5/MUCH lower.....the horse with the great odds is Jaycito--bred for the distance, which is more than you can say for Uncle Mo--battle-tested Gr 1 winner---Baffert....he'll get the 1 1/4, he'll be coming--if MoMo falters, I like Jaycito to get the job done, and at 33-1 right now--I mean, if he runs well in San Felipe/and he probably will be closing--he'll drop to 15-1 right away--33-1/BAFFERT---looks like a Derby horse, that's for sure--Jaycito is a real nice three year old.....

19 Feb 2011 12:41 AM
Matthew W

3-1 is a horrible price on Uncle Mo (right now)....nice 1 1/2 race at Santa Anita tom....it's pouring right now, turf is gonna be soft, there's a lot of pace in that race, I like Riveria Cocktail at a huge price to run a big one--not necessarily win it but run big....not sure what track will be like tom....7th race like Domonation/GoGo to come from the clouds off a blistering pace....the San Carlos, I was impressed with Mythical Power's return race--very professional--like him right back from off the pace....and the highlight of the day, for me, would be to see Joy Scott win the 9th, on Thunder Of Zion--Patrick will be in front, with the heavy favorite--Joy will be coming--I think she has a big chance to get him!

19 Feb 2011 12:55 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Brian Russell

  What did you call me???!!! Actually those are some very good points. I agree with all of them. At this point there are some awesome odds on some very talented 3yo but that will change drastically on some after the race. You'd have to have fallen off of a turnip truck to put it kindly to be betting the field at even odds. I wouldn't bet Mo at 3-1 either. I wouldn't bet any under 20-1 actually.

19 Feb 2011 1:39 AM
nickie

gotta question Brian your logic, if your betting the Derby future, whattah you care about Saturdays heats...example might be Santiva...if you like the runner what you want to see is a step forward from '10...Smith flyin in certainly shows Kenneally thinks he's got a runner who might be legit for a try on the first Saturday in May...I believe a useful race in Louisianna does not portend my wagering strategy 10 weeks hence

19 Feb 2011 8:57 AM
berttheclock

Ah, future betting - Some great rewards, but, there can be a downside.  In the early '80s, I knew a clocker on the So Cal circuit.  He had just clocked an outstanding colt of D Waynes.  So, he sent a future bet with his girlfriend to place in Vegas.  She bought the ticket, but, before she arrived in LA, he read the early addition of the LA Times to learn the colt had just been put down due to a sudden attack of colic.  Of course, the young runner might have broken down after leaving the gate, but, this story has stuck with me ever since that day.  Hey, I did hit a future bet on the A's winning the AL West, one year.  Very small return, though, and a very long wait.

19 Feb 2011 10:13 AM
Ted from LA

Nickie,

Aboard welcome!  Aside syntax from sentence your first, you make a nice post.  The fact that you used the word "portend" on a racing blog is beautiful.

19 Feb 2011 10:16 AM
Coldfacts

The list of major interest has excluded horses with graded earnings for those who have none and some who have less. What a joke.

Riveting Reason:  Nine races, He has contested four 8 ½F races; one 8F & one 9F (Four G1 starts, Lots of Foundation) Graded Earnings - $147,500 (EXCLUDED)

INCLUDED:

Brethren: Three races, one 6f, one 8f & one 8 1/2F (lacking in foundation) Graded Earnings - $120,000

The Factor: Two maiden races; (lacking in foundation) Graded Earnings $0

Stay Thirsty Four races Graded Earnings $110,000

Astrology: Five races (0 G1 start) Graded Earnings $105,893

Mucho Macho Man: (0 G1 start)  Graded Earnings $90,000

Above are a few of the colts that made the betting interest list over a colt that right now has the best derby foundation. What is unfortunate about Riveting Reason’s exclusion I is the fact that he is in the 5-2 category and provide no chance for his supporters to capitalize on a big price. How can a colt with that type of resume be excluded at the expense of a maiden winner with $0 graded earnings. Disgraceful!

The derby future bet is a sucker win only bet without the possibility of a refund for non starters.

19 Feb 2011 10:17 AM
Footlick

Jaycito would be my bet too

19 Feb 2011 10:25 AM
jayjay

Matthew said it all and I totally agree.  I just hope he stays healthy.  They said he chipped or lost a tooth and that's why he bolted.  He might be missing a tooth and probably  have a funny smile but when he runs, he runs like he still has perfect grills.

I'm all for Jaycito running in the Felipe which is his preferred distance, just hope it didn't screw up his path by not running until March but at the same time, I can't really complain about Baffert, one of the best 3 yr old trainer in the country.

The thing about KDFW, you are not only handicapping the horse 2 months in advance but worse, you have to worry about whether the horse will make it to the Derby whether it be health or graded earnings.  (I'll probably still put $100 on Jaycito, just can't pass up that 30-1 price

)  At least Jaycito already have some graded earnings, just need for him to say healthy.  I would be happy if he hits the board and not necessarily win his prep races.  I'm also looking forward to seeing THAS next weekend against Soldat.  This is probably the true test for Soldat.  My derby dozen, except i'm saving the last 3 spots for the yet to be known superstars, probably will come out in April.

Jaycito

THAS

Dialed In

Soldat

Stay Thirsty

Brethren

Machen

Uncle Mo

Rogue Romance

19 Feb 2011 11:02 AM
nickie

Ted, very nice for you to take the time, allthough in my case you can't judge the cover by the book. I have enjoyed Bloodhorse for awhile and the blogs recently...always a great time of the year for me...Masters[golf] and Run for the Roses, followed by return of horses from the South...livin the dream baby!

19 Feb 2011 11:31 AM
Ted from LA

Did she just call Ted from LA "baby?"  Teddy likey.  I would rather watch a 24 hour marathon of Sarah Palin's Alaska than make a bet on the Derby in February.  I suggest those of your thinking about making a future bet, instead consider making a donation to my Human Fund.

19 Feb 2011 11:52 AM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 Just watched the THS and have to say that you are NOT wrong. Machen will be overbet today based soley on visual handicapping his last race. Slow is slow no matter how you look at it. Could he improve today and win? Maybee, but I won't have my money on him at the expected low odds. Unlike some people on this blog, I will post my bets BEFORE the race is over.lol. I like the three horse and I will play him ATB. Good luck to anyone betting today.

19 Feb 2011 12:29 PM
merlinmerry

Ted from LA is having entirely too much fun on this blog.  (And I'd rather boil my socks with my feet still in 'em than watch any of Sarah Palin's Alaska.)

19 Feb 2011 12:51 PM
El Kabong

Like what I'm seeing on the one horse who has seriously impressed with his potential. Not the horse who has run the lights out race, but has shown improvement in everything accomplished thus far. I was watching Red Hot Cold Blue in his first race back as a 3 year old hoping to get a glimpse of brilliance. I got more than that from SOLDAT. Asked to race against sprinters(because of his sire) at Belmont and Saratoga, he responded well. Bottom line, he's not a sprinter. Tossed into a G3 to break his maiden around 2 turns on grass, he wins- excellent, he likes two turns. Called upon to run against the best turf runners in the BC he responds with a gutsy race where he fights through on the rail(at 2-great sign) and runs good enough to win most years-except he loses the race to a very exceptional turfer named Pluck who is now headed to the 2000 Guineas to race against the world's best. He then opens the 3 year old campaign on Dirt(and it rains) but that doesn't bother him a bit. He races tough for 8F then hits a gear that opens 10 lenghts(this is in the last 1/8th) on his nearest rival. His pedigree on the dam side suggests he win on any surface, at classic distances. As Steve pointed out, he shares blood with John Henry. At 24 -1, I like this bet.

19 Feb 2011 1:40 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bind-#4, and Saracen-#9 are the top horses in the 3rd at FG. Even odds for a debut is too low so I have to take Saracen at 5-1. Those are good odds for this guy.

19 Feb 2011 2:09 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Wow !!!!! No wonder he was even odds. Bind is special. Derby Trail ???? Under 1:09 at FG in his debut. Super pedigree. He has it all. Looked great physically, and was very impressive visually. I say it's not too late. He'll be on The Trail. Watch out for this one.

19 Feb 2011 2:17 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jason

 It wouldn't surprise me if Bind is the most talented horse on the entire card. I also think he could be better than Blame. I wonder what their plans are and what the barn really thinks of his talent. He looked magnificent. What do you think?

19 Feb 2011 3:29 PM
cuban chef de race

now is my turn,i can bet the field best horse and uncle mo at that price in the derby,i do not see any horse in this field other then cal nation unrace at two,casper's toch some stamina,elite alex calving borrel?,and sway away do not run since last century to have a chance.uncle mo is a better price then the field!wow,i do like to see people win when they belong in horse racing for me this is like a family.i do not read books when i blog i just love this race,in my opinion a.cross,astrology,coma to the top,decisive moment,gourmet dinner,indian winter,j p's gusto,jaicito,machen,mucho macho men,rogue romance,santiva,silver medallion,sweet ducky and tiz bless do not have what it takes.

19 Feb 2011 5:11 PM
cuban chef de race

i think brethren is overrated he is a half to super saver his sire is great but the horses he have beaten are really mediocre so 15x1 for me now is an under lay he better show me some respect because i know what he is thinking.

19 Feb 2011 5:30 PM
cuban chef de race

i need some money now,dialed in and uncle mo will be there for me,pay attention to class remember giacomo?,i told you,what a nice race.

19 Feb 2011 5:47 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Good odds on Decisive Moment and should be included in exotics.

19 Feb 2011 5:56 PM
cuban chef de race

i have  never seeing a derby single favorite that should be 500x1 to win the belmont!wow will be this the nasrullah year?.

19 Feb 2011 5:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Mucho Macho Man is a nice horse but no one from this race is going forward on my list. No stars from the Risen Star as far as I could see. Decisive Moment had the fractions he needed but isn't anywhere good enough. Mucho Macho is tough but I sure don't see him winning The Derby or anyone else from this race. Eibar Coa- Best wishes. Recover well.

19 Feb 2011 6:10 PM
thomas

i wouldn't mind putting 2 dollars on sweet ducky.

mucho macho man wins the risen star. now how good is To Honor And Serve going into the FOY?

19 Feb 2011 6:29 PM
LAZMANNICK

Very disappointed in Machen.  He was in perfect position with no excuse and maybe he just isn't good enough.  Mucho Macho Man looked good today and has earned himself a start in the Derby, for sure.  If anything, his decisive win legitimizes Dialed In's Holy Bull and To Honor and Serve, both of which are much better.  Santiva should definitely improve off his first start of the year.  Rogue Romance closed to get third without being much of a threat and it looks even more like his forte will be turf.

19 Feb 2011 7:51 PM
Draynay

Poor Santiva just can't get a break. 4 wide all the way around the track and a tough Mucho made things hard first time off a long layoff.  But Santiva should move forward from this effort and is one to watch in the future.  Bind was unreal.  Very fast and with so little effort.  Thanks for the 6.00 dollar PLACE money Santiva.

19 Feb 2011 8:08 PM
Jason Shandler

I see Uncle Mo has creeped up to 7-2. If he stays there or goes up to 4-1, that is probably decent value.

Nice win for Mucho Macho Man and trainer Kathy Ritvo, who overcame injury to win her first graded race. But none of those Risen Star horses are Derby contenders. Let's be honest.

19 Feb 2011 8:27 PM
tcc

Jason:

I know pool #1 doesn't close until Sunday 6.00 pm est. Right after the Risen Star was finished, Mucho Macho Man was at odds of 87-1, just because he won the race, he drops to odds of 66-1 in less than 2 hours after the race was finished.

19 Feb 2011 8:30 PM
Jason Shandler

tcc: The horse will likley be in the starting gate for the Derby because he has the earnings. So in that respect, hes probably not a bad bet. Same with Santiva and Rogue Romnance. But I would be shocked if they were good enough to win.

19 Feb 2011 8:42 PM
LAZMANNICK

The best move I saw all day today and the most impressive by far was Camila Cabaletta in the 6th at Golden gate.  The horse broke very slow, was a half mile out of it in the back stretch, made a big move up the inside and around the far turn, had to check briefly for traffic, bided her time and waited for a hole, angled between horses turning into the stretch and once clear took off as much the best.  Oh yeah, I frogot to mention.  Camila dumped her rider at the break when facing the inside fence and did everything on her own.  I understand that the horse is going to give jockey lessons on how to win a race some time next week.

19 Feb 2011 8:43 PM
tcc

But I would be shocked if they were good enough to win.

jshandler 19 Feb 2011 8:42 PM

They are Questionable for the win.

19 Feb 2011 9:14 PM
Ranagulzion

I'll say it again.  The Holy Bull Stakes was a very strong Derby Prep and the top four in that race are serious Derby contenders: Dialed-In, Sweet Ducky, Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man.  MMM is improving and has tremendous scope for a big breakout performance in his next race, being a June foal.  I say that he'll turn the tables on To Honour and Serve come Derby day.  Santiva showed why those who think that he's too slow should think again. He should move forward big time off this Risen Star effort.  Rogue Romance may have needed the race and deserves another chance, but Machen and Decisive Moment were outclassed.  DM has the earnings to get into the Derby line up and could become a pace factor if nothing else.

19 Feb 2011 9:42 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ted from LA

   Did you get the jar of Butchwax I mailed? I want to be able to pick you out of the infield on TV at The Derby with your Pompadourian Flat Top Mohawk. And don't portend that you don't know what I'm talking about. You've got a leak, a stool pigeon, a mole in your organization. And don't try to moderate this post either. I'll hear about that also.

19 Feb 2011 10:00 PM
tcc

Jason:

Lets watch the odds on these San Vicente entries. Sunday 2-21 to see if the odds change if either of these horse's were to win.

Number Name Trainer Jockey Morning Line Current Odds

9 Indian Winter Jerry Hollendorfer  50 99

20 The Factor Bob Baffert  20 35

19 Feb 2011 10:23 PM
Paula Higgins

Well, Mucho Macho man may not win the Derby but he certainly deserves to be there. I also agree that Santiva isn't chopped liver. Are they going to beat a healthy Uncle Mo? No. But you still have 2nd and 3rd.

About Sarah Palin, that Alaska show was not the wisest move if you want to run for the Presidency. Created more doubt than answered any questions. What on earth was she thinking? They must have paid her a boatload of money.

19 Feb 2011 10:25 PM
Ted from LA

Dr. D and Ms. Paula Higgins,

I don't portend to know anything about politics, but if Sarah Palin became President of the United States it would be an interesting two years.

I want the Uncle Mo show to be a go.  We need a triple crown winner and he looks the part to me, provided he stays healthy and doesn't get buried at the Graveyard of Champions.  Ted from LA might go to all three legs this year if Mo wins the Derby.  I've only done that once.  Dr. D, thanks for the gift.  You're the best doctor a guy could ever ask for.  And I will never again ask you for a second opinion during a proctology exam.

19 Feb 2011 11:51 PM
WinPlaceNoShow

Wow, what a performance by Bind!  This is the real deal folks... Was that a track record for six furlongs?  And this was a maiden race by a first time starter.......and yet he did it so effortlessly and professionally. The sky's the limit!!!!

20 Feb 2011 12:34 AM
predict

Cuban chef de race,

  Hmmm, very well said.

 Also there seems to be a feeling here amongst those blogging that Mucho Macho Man isn't good enough to win the Derby. I have to disagree, as the best horse doesn't always win the Derby. If he is in the gate for the Derby, which he most likely will be, he has a chance. Trainer says he gets better with distance! I don't know, but this horse has to have one of the most nondescript female side pedigrees I have ever seen on a Derby hopeful.You have to go back to the great, great grandsires before we see horses typical of a Derby contender. And when was the the last time anyone saw Blasting Signal in a Derby horse's pedigree? Since I often like to take the underdog, I might just make this guy my sentimental favorite. I wonder why they mixed his name in two languages, its like calling a horse Big Bad Hombre. Anyway, I think we will be surprised just how well this horse does.

Future bets on the Derby? Save your money for Derby day. Or if you have to make a future bet, try next year's Superbowl, at least all the entries will we be in the starting gate.

20 Feb 2011 2:07 AM
Matthew W

In the pouring rain, billed as the battle of the old timers, Jess You And I vs Freaky--it was third choice Good Reason, a son of Favorite Trick, who broke running and led every step--I had him win/show and have always loved this horse--love to hit my last wager--even if ya lose on the day, something about hitting that getaway winner--ended up playing Decisive Moment and Jaycito to win, then backing them in exactas with MoMo and all others--at least with Jaycito ya gotta horse who'll probably be in the starting gate for the Derby--anyone notice the rides put forth my one Mr Joel Rosario today? Check out the beat he laid on Bourbon Bay after losing much position/horse early/ or bringing Smiling Tiger from eight back off a :23 flat ist 1/4, not to mention the $21 winner, ridden ala the other two--in spectacular fashion--as good a rider as I have seen, and I mean ever....

20 Feb 2011 2:27 AM
Coldfacts

Mucho Macho Man ran nice race for a late foal. It can be seen that he has a lot of filling out to do and that is extremely encouraging give his performances to date. I do not have any record of June foal winning the derby and that might not be so encouraging to his supporters. His time of 1:43.98 is the fastest for the last five renewals of the Risen Star with the first quarter of 24.67 being the slowest. The last derby winner to come out of the Risen Star was Grindstone. Ironically he was at the opposite end of the maturity scale as he was January foal and the last to win the derby. Friesan Fire won the 2009 renewal and was the eventual off time favorite for the derby. However, the A P Indy derby cure tripped in and he finished last but one.

Two of the next three pass the post should be given another chance as they needed a bit more pace upfront to be effective. Santiva was perfectly positioned and was simply out run. His race was similar to the one  he ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club with the only difference being he did not have the big lumbering Astrology next to him. I agree that it’s a stretch to see any from this race wearing the roses. However, it’s the derby and strange things happen.

20 Feb 2011 8:15 AM
Coldfacts

Bind:

He was ultra impressive in victory. His maiden victory has certainly eclipsed those of the Factor and Uncle Mo. I know I will be considered crazy by the Mo contingent but it’s only one man’s opinion. I do not recall ever seen a time of 1:08 plus recorded for 6F on the usually slow Fairgrounds strip. A colt via Pulpit out of an Unbridled mare does not equate to 1:08 and change for 6F. Therefore this colt has monster potential as he is bred to be a router. I know my posts highlight o lot of pedigree information and there is something I particularly like about Bind’s pedigree.

His dam sire Unbridled has to be one of the most successful Triple Crown stallions in the last 15 years. He remains one of the greatest extensions of mega sire and sire of sires Mr. Prospector who was regarded as the greatest extension of the great Native Dancer. Unbridled like his grandsire Mr. P sired a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown between 1996 and 2003. (Grindstone/Red Bullet/Empire Maker) Grindstone would go on to sire Birdstone who sired Derby and Belmont winners Mine That Bird & Summer Bird. Unbridled was not only the last derby winner to sire a derby winner, but his sons and grandson have also sire winners of TC races. In spite of his impressive resume, he has failed in the same department as his grandsire. None of his broodmares have produced the winner of a TC race.

It appears the ghost of Unbridled has taken exception with this fact and has decided to something about. There are six colts on the radar that were produced from Unbridled broodmares:-

Beamer

Anthony's Cross

Shackleford

Zayda

Elite Alex

Bind

The dams of three of the above six were unraced i.e., Anthony's Cross, Elite Alex and Bind.  I have not hidden by believe that well bred lightly raced and unraced fillies/mares make the best broodmares. This conclusion stems from a compilation of a list of the past immortals of the track and they were produces from mares that fall into the aforementioned categories. This brings me back to Bind whose dam was unraced. After watching the likes of Candy Ride, Invasor & Curlin who were produced from unraced mares, I am always on the lookout for exceptional performances from horses who share a similar profile. Bind performance is clearly a signal that he is an exceptional colt. The fact that he was produced from an unraced mare make him even more intriguing in my book.

The big question is whether he warrants derby consideration with what is considered to be a late start. The colt I was yesterday didn’t appear to be green and was very professional. He would have beaten the more seasoned derby pretenders that ran in the subsequent Risen Star Stakes. I know the connections of this colt are inclined to take the conservative path but I would encourage them to revisit the story of Lammtara. He made one winning start as a 2YO and won the Epsom Derby in his second start 302 days later in a new track record. I think there is ample time for this colt to secure the requisite graded earnings to make the derby field. With so many derby pretender around it would be a shame if this colt didn’t get a shot.

NB: The Bold Ruler sire line has produced only two derby winners in the last 31 year. In the last 75 year only two derby winning broodmares were sired by derby winners with the last being 45 year ago. It will take an exceptional horse to break the jinks and Bind’s profile fits perfectly.

20 Feb 2011 9:45 AM
nickie

Me thinks you have developed your opinion pre race Jason...how can one say that Santivas' effort wasn't something that gave the barn encourement that he can move forward. I thought Smitty could have been more aggressive if he thought this race was "make or break". He obviously let the horse do his own thing down the  backside and then make an obligatory run thru the stretch. Yes he was short,  but off a layoff and having to tote top weight, I would think the barn just wanted to see the horse get some air in his lungs. I would not be so quik to cross this guy off just yet. At least wait until Repole runner opens up his soph campaigne[his connections looking for 1 turn debut says a lot to me], and lets see Zitos runner handle 2 turns. Shocked, were you shocked when Smarty Jones lost, were you shocked when Big Brown lost?

20 Feb 2011 10:04 AM
Slew

Hey Laz!  Didn't that 6th race looks as though all of the jockeys were amateurs? What chaos Camila caused to those front runners!  I figure any horse who drops 110 pounds should be ahead of the pack, but the leaders couldn't get past her erratic moves.

20 Feb 2011 10:10 AM
Tony Bada Bing

Since it's already hard enough to pick a Derby winner five minutes before post, picking one almost three months out, demands a large reward for the risk - some never make the gate, those that do have to beat 19 others and there is still plenty of horses that will fall off the trail. All this being said, a few bucks, less than $10,  on these three would pay handsomely...

Clubhouse Ride who finished ahead of Rob Lewis winner, Anthony's Cross, in the Sham: 99-1

Rogue Romance who closed into a slow Risen Star Stakes to finish third in his first race back could show plenty more upside: 49-1

Sweet Ducky who's dramatic second place finish in the Holy Bull will either be followed by greater improvement or a big drop off. Isn't it worth $5 at 88-1 to find out?

Taking Uncle Mo at 5-2 vs. 2-1 or 3-2 on Derby Day - if he makes it there, is healthy and winning - really isn't worth it unless you're willing to drop a $100 or more to win this far out...

20 Feb 2011 12:14 PM
Mike M

Stay Thirsty out works Uncle Mo. I don't know what kind of work horse Uncle Mo is so I don't know what it means (if anything) but if Uncle Mo is/was the type of horse that out worked anything put next to him then I would start to get a little anxious if I were them.

20 Feb 2011 12:46 PM
LAZMANNICK

Slew

Camila got the 110 lb. break because she was an apprentice horse-jockey.  I've seen a lot of horses dump their riders and run the race, but not like this one.  I watched them in the backstretch and was thinking that maybe the outrider had caught her or something and then all of a sudden there was this streak running up the insides, and not the  outside like they normally do.  I know she interferred with the one horse who was finished anyway (maybe she'll get three days for careless running), but the  way she bided her time and waited for a hole and then took off was amazing for a riderless horse.  Maybe another case for no whips.

20 Feb 2011 1:08 PM
LAZMANNICK

The encouraging thing about Bind is that unlike The Factor, who set the pace in his historical race, he came from off the pace while tracking lightening fast fractions (being off the lead by as much as 4 lengths early).  He still managed to home in about 23.77 seconds for his final quarter (24.07 race time with a deduction of .3 for being 1 1/2L off the lead at the half).  The jock, Rosie Napravnik, fits him perfectly and I hope she retains the mount.  I don’t know what the Beyer will be, but Beautician got a 91 for her 6F in 1.09.76 compared to Binds 1.08.80.  The track record is 1.08.03 and the three year best time (important when setting Beyers) is 1.09.  Based on this I would estimate, (when reviewing the Beyer chart) that Bind should get a minimal Beyer around 103 and possibly more, though you never know when it comes to Beyers anymore.  A case in point is Bridgetown, who ran 5F on turf at Tampa in 55.28, which compares to the course record of 55, and bettered the three year bet time of 55.6 and got a 94 Beyer.

20 Feb 2011 1:30 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

WinPlaceNoShow, Coldfacts

  Stunning performance by Bind especially when you consider how good is pedigree probably is for routes, and he was reaching out good in his stride. Nice post Coldfacts. Usually I wouldn't be for a late start like this but I'd like to see Bind jump onto the Trail. It just might be a better debut than Mo's and possibly better than The Factor's second race. It's in the same realm for sure. News forthcoming soon about the direction they want to take I hope. I don't think would have a problem with a late nomination fee if they got to the point where they thought they could win The Derby. I look for talented colts and fillies out of raced or unraced mares.

Ted from LA

  And don't talk politics during it next time either and it will go a little easier for you. Sorry about that. Was your damsire a coyote?

20 Feb 2011 1:50 PM
thederbydream

I dont see in value on Uncle Mo at 7 to 2. Baffert loves Jaycito so going to play a ticket on Him along with Dialed In. Small ticket on Rouge Romance who I think ran better than I originally though after rewatching his Risen star.

20 Feb 2011 2:20 PM
Jason Shandler

Mike M: Stay Thirsty worked in company. Mo worked alone. Two different types of works, doesnt mean much.

I will say however, Mike is very happy with how Stay Thirsty is working since his return.

20 Feb 2011 2:22 PM
Karen in Texas

Bind did look exceptional at Fair Grounds yesterday. I don't know if he is pointed to the Derby, but he appeared very professional. He appeared less green and more professional than Curlin did in his maiden win "forte" in 2007. Of course we know that career began in February and had major Triple Crown ramifications. So perhaps Bind can make the Preakness, if not the Derby, assuming all is well and he stays healthy.

20 Feb 2011 2:37 PM
Draynay

The Risen Star's first 3 finishers will all be in the Derby and Santiva will hit the board on Derby Day.  That is one tough horse.

20 Feb 2011 3:16 PM
Paula Higgins

Predict, you are right, the best horse does not always win the Derby. It's a big field. Alot can happen and often does.

Re: Uncle Mo would not worry about one work, especially working alone. So many horses put in good works and then do not show up for the race, and the reverse is true too. But I do think some of these horses are going to improve and challenge him.

20 Feb 2011 3:53 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Uncle Mo's imminent return to the track must be driving you nuts. It could be another decade before you spot another as precocious and starry-eyed as he. Are you now saying that Bind is the fastest debutante you've seen since greesed lightning?  Hold your horses Bro. Have you satisfied your normal curiosity about why this colt is making such a belated debut?  And how can you compare a smashing 2YO debutante of last August(Uncle Mo) with "just come/ fly by night" 3YOs, The Factor and Bind?  Sounds like desperation to me.  Bind is a promising colt, no doubt about it, that has the same Clairborne connections as HOTY runner-up Blame, therefore they are not going to rush him to make the Derby.  In fact I'd presume that they'll take their sweet time with this AP Indy/Seattle Slew line colt and target the Midsummer Classics (Travers/ Haskel), and the big fall stakes races, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder's Cup Classic.  They might even try the "Bernardini model" and go for the Withers, Preakness and if successful ...sky's the limit indeed.  But the Kentucky Derby?  I think not ...and certainly not after March 13 when Uncle mo gives everyone a preview of the mOuntain they'll have to climb to past the post fist on Saturday May 7, 2011 at Churchill Downs.

Sorry, but I had to respond to your effusive remarks about Bind.  It appears that you are latching on to any fast newcommer, as you did also with Fort Hughes, in an attempt to find a challenger to Uncle Mo.  Good luck my friend.  Mo's most dangerous rival at this moment is Dialed-In and Mucho Macho Man has the developmental scope to become a "Point Given" type in the Preakness and Belmont.  Guess I'm saying, much to your chagrin, that the Derby is a LOCK for Mo.  Bring it on Coldfacts!!!

20 Feb 2011 4:07 PM
-Keelerman

Dr D, WinPlaceNoShow, & Coldfacts;

I just watched the replay of Bind's race. Magnificent! He did it so easily! He closed his final eighth in :12.40 under no urging! He's got some catching up to do if he wants to make the Kentucky Derby, but based strictly on raw talent and potential he must be given a chance!

Regarding Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star, it was a very good rebound off of his less-than-stellar Holy Bull performance. It certainly bodes well for Dialed In and Sweet Ducky! I was also impressed with Santiva.

Finally, I just watched a filly named It's Tricky win the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct by a huge margin while easing up at the finish. She looks like a very nice filly with a very bright future.

Jason;

I feel that these horses offer excellent value in Pool #1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager:

Clubhouse Ride

Indian Winter

Silver Medallion

Jaycito

Stay Thirsty

Rogue Romance

I feel that Clubhouse Ride at 99-1 is a great price, considering that horse he beat decisively in the Sham, Anthony's Cross, came back to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and is 45-1 in the Future Wager pool.

-Keelerman

20 Feb 2011 4:10 PM
RS

I'm going to bet on Elite Alex if he starts in the Derby, no matter how he does in his prep races. By Afleet Alex with Calvin Borel, you can't go wrong. I also think Rogue Romance will do well in the TC races. I'm not convinced Uncle Mo's all that, at least not yet. He seems like he might not be able to win at the classic distance. I see him more winning shorter races like the Preakness and Haskell, like Rachel Alexandra. But I certainly could be wrong.

20 Feb 2011 4:50 PM
WinPlaceNoShow

Regarding Bind's ultra impressive performance, it will be interesting to see how the other horses in the race do in their next out.  I'd imagine they will be overplayed but they will give a good account of themselves.  At least three horses, including Bind who will be 2-5 in his debut against winners, should win next out.  For me, I will be keeping a close eye on Red Ace!

20 Feb 2011 6:56 PM
sherpa

Laz & Slew - I haven't found a replay of GG race 6 to watch yet, but your description reminds me of She'll Heir's run in the Sweet Life S. 1/22.  Really amazing.  If you didn't see it, here's the video: www.bloodhorse.com/.../sweet-life-s

I, too, was extremely impressed with Bind yesterday.  We will probably see more of him next month.

MMM did look like a Derby horse in the RS.  Not saying win it, but deserves to be in the field.  Rajiv gave him a near-perfect trip.

Thoughts going out to Eibar Coa & family for a full recovery.

20 Feb 2011 7:13 PM
2:24

Nice San Vincente win for The Factor.  Feel like Sway Away may be the best Derby prospect in that race.

20 Feb 2011 7:14 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Sway Away moves up. The Factor moves down. The Factor is still too fast. I'm not even sure they'll keep The Factor on the trail. He's so talented I think they'll probably give the SA Derby a try. Sway Away looks good for 9f and 10f.

20 Feb 2011 7:19 PM
thederbydream

The Factor is going to be one tough customer when it comes to sprinting but stretching out on the derby trail is probably not going to be his gig. His sire is off to just a fantastic start. They are running long, short, grass, on every surface.

20 Feb 2011 7:37 PM
Jason Shandler

Very impressed with Sway Away. Probably the 3YO with most potential in California.

On another note, I'd rather be chained to the railroad tracks than watch auto racing, but I just saw a Sportscenter interview with the kid who won the Daytona 500 and I very impressed with him. Great story.

20 Feb 2011 7:37 PM
thomas

CAUTION!! You are about to enter the no spin zone, The Factor begins right now.

lmao

20 Feb 2011 7:37 PM
box it up

i have a buddy in vegas on business and i had him play sway away in the derby future but he could not get there until after the race. i just got 30-1. the 2/15 weekly sheet that wynn puts out was 65-1. 10 minutes too late. anyway sway away looks like the real deal. i also took a shot with nacho business at 175-1

20 Feb 2011 7:40 PM
LAZMANNICK

Sherpa

If you didn't see Camila you have to find the replay somewhere.  I just watched it again.  It was amazing the way she came up on the inside around the turn and actually checked for a few steps then wedged her way through a hole and took off.

20 Feb 2011 7:43 PM
-Keelerman

Well!

The Factor won the San Vicente, and I must admit that it was quite impressive! He set a very fast pace and held on to win by a length in 1:20.34. However, Sway Away closed like an absolute rocket in the final eighth of a mile and would have won had the race been much longer. He looks like a serious Triple Crown contender who will relish additional distance. I will be adding him into my top twenty!

-Keelerman

20 Feb 2011 7:45 PM
LizJ

I think that the Factor was very impressive - only his 3rd start and off 2 works. People who disagree should listen to Bafferts comments after the race. I would not dismiss him or inflate the performance of the 2nd place horse

20 Feb 2011 7:45 PM
LAZMANNICK

Sway Away opened my eyes today.  I wondered why they took him to Pleasanton for his maiden race and think that maybe because it was on dirt.  In the Best Pal on synthetics he ran well to get 2nd coming from away out of it.  The horse obviously needs graded earnings and seasoning since this was his first race in six months, but he ran well getting his last 3 furlongs in 35.43 and looking like he had lots left.  Now they have to worry about the bounce factor, but if he gets enough earnings to get into the Derby (providing that’s their goal) this is the kind of guy that could give a big run at the end and get the job done, a legitimate long shot special.

20 Feb 2011 7:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

-Keelerman

I agree that The Factor was impressive for a 7furlong race.  Garcia got into him quite a bit in the stretch and at the end I don't know if the horse had given all he had or if Garcia let up when he knew he had the race won.  However, unless they get him to relax I don't see him even winning the Santa Anita Derby and if he can't last for that then he probably won't even make the Derby. Sway Away shows a lot of promise and I hope he continues to progress.

20 Feb 2011 7:58 PM
skyfire

The Factor will always be a factor because of Baffert == what a great trainer he is!  This is not an easy horse to train -- beautifully handled, would not sell him short (pun intended)  

20 Feb 2011 8:00 PM
2:24

LizJ - I don't think anyone is inflating Sway Away's performance.  He hadn't raced since last summer and is coming off an injury and he almost caught a fantastic horse at a track that favors frontrunners.  The Factor reminds me of the great Lost in the Fog.

Jason - would love the Beyers on the top 2 when you get them.

20 Feb 2011 8:16 PM
Ranagulzion

The Factor is not a derby horse.  He is a good sprinter/miler type.  Sway Away looks green and may not achieve his best or qualifying stakes earnings in time for the Derby.  The Santa Anita Derby will answer those questions of course.  The sons of Afleet Alex are also seeming to mature later than other RAN line progeny but it is still too early to speak definitively of a trend here.  Sway Away's female family looks eerily late blooming ...kinda like ...you know who (LOL).

20 Feb 2011 8:21 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

And now on to the next leg of the Afleet Alex show with Elite Alex tomorrow. If he does take the Southwest then I am giving the edge to Afleet Alex to sire a Derby winner this year. He'll have two of the top five(Sway Away) if Elite Alex is as good as I think he might be. We are now beginning to see races that give us more than pure speculation. Sway Away has Seattle Slew on the bottom and Elite Alex has Unbridled. Not bad eh?

20 Feb 2011 8:38 PM
Jimmer

Really impressed with Santiva's effort yesterday, hanging tough off a three-month layoff, giving six lbs. to the winner. I was a bit unsure of him heading into yesterday, but I think he has to be taken seriously after that performance. Excited for the next few weeks.

20 Feb 2011 8:40 PM
Ted from LA

Ted from LA is watching Titanic.  He is not proud to admit it, but it reminds him a lot about life and horseracing.  You have some good people trying to survive, some jackasses expecting to survive, and the rest of us... hoping to survive.  I have never been this excited about the road to the first Saturday in May.  Ted from LA will thrive on Derby Day.

20 Feb 2011 9:14 PM
Jason Shandler

You should not have just told us that you are watching the Titanic. From now on, you shall be known as Meg from LA.

20 Feb 2011 9:17 PM
MikeM

Jason- The picture used in the Bloodhorse led me to believe they worked in company.

20 Feb 2011 9:40 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Sway Away-off since August, bred for 9f and 10f, closed great in a 7f race against the fastest 3yo in the nation.  I'd say it was an impressive effort. The Factor, whether he is just a sprinter or not time will tell but was also impressive considering that he wasn't in the best of shape for this one, recently having a little time off with a foot problem and only three works since Dec 26. He's been galloping mostly. I will agree that he has his work cut out for him for 9f or 10f. But it's not impossible, especially for 9f. 10f he'll have to really slow down and be in tremendous shape. He has an efficient, fantastic stride so that works in his favor for possibly stretching out. They could run out of time. It would take a lot of training. I would  give him a shot in The SA Derby if he enters but I doubt if he would be my pick. If they could get him to slow down, a win is possible.

20 Feb 2011 9:52 PM
Draynay

I still have not seen a horse that can come close to Uncle Mo.  Not even in the same area code.  We will finally have our Triple Crown winner this year.

20 Feb 2011 10:31 PM
LAZMANNICK

Dray

You still haven’t seen Uncle Mo's equal this year other than possibly Bind.  Brethren and Dialed In have had successful starts and were much the best in their races.  The other top hoses from last year still have to make their first starts and so does Uncle Mo.  There is no guarantee that Mo is the same horse this year that he was last year, but there is still no reason to think that he won’t improve and be even better either.  Still, he has to make that first start and I hope he goes to Tampa, not Gulfstream.  Also remember, Mucho Macho Man was much the best in the Risen Star and he couldn’t even warm up Dialed In and To Honor and Serve.  Nothing’s definite yet, not until we see Mo and the others.

20 Feb 2011 11:12 PM
Ted from LA

Deep down, I just love people and horses and I want everyone to be happy and not rioting.

Hugs and Kisses,

Meg from LA

21 Feb 2011 12:15 AM
jasonr

The future wager has to be the most ridiculous bet ever. If I bet ANY horse 3 months before the race, I have to get 100-1 on everything.

Uncle Mo had 8 dosage points! I'd need 200-1 to bet him! From 1 to 10, breeding wise, he gets a 1.5.

21 Feb 2011 12:57 AM
Jasonr

Don't forget how many horses the worse track in the country, Churchill downs, retires. It can be bone chipping hard one minute and with a little rain, be so cuppy it rips tendons and suspensories ala Eskyndraya and Setsuco respectively.

The year the barely grade 3 Giacomo won, the top 5 horses all came out with chips or fractures.

People should be outraged at that so called racing strip. The new Santa Anita strip is proving to be the state of the art track of the future.

21 Feb 2011 1:06 AM
Paseana

The Factor has King's Bishop written all over him!  And actually, the thought of this 3yo attempting the Met Mile isn't completely ludicrous, in my opinion.

He looks like a re-run of Forestry to me, and that's not a bad thing.  Forestry's King's Bishop was as jaw-dropping a performance as you'll ever see!

Could we see another one in The Factor?

21 Feb 2011 2:23 AM
GunBow

For me, The Factor in the San Vicente was like Blake Griffin in the Slamdunk contest.  Both won, and certainly performed well, but were unable to live up to over-the-top hype.

If the Derby wasn't looming in the background in all these prep races, then we could simply praise The Factor for doing what he needed to do to win a nice gr.2 stakes.  However, it's impossible not to evaluate these preps with one eye towards the Kentucky Derby, and it's this eye that tempers my enthusaiam for The Factor's San Vicente.

To The Factor's credit, he was up on a pace much more demanding than what he faced December 26th, and yet was able to keep it together well enough in the lane to beat some quality prospects.  What has been often overlooked in The Factor's record setting maiden score is that the pace he set in that race was not particularly sizzling for the track.  His half mile split that day was a modest 44.11; what got The Factor the record was a sensational final quarter in 22 and 4.  

In the San Vicente, City Cool prompted The Factor through a first half in 43.41, a good 3 lengths faster than the pace in his maiden score.  What is more, to get that half mile split The Factor put in an astounding second quarter of 21 and 1. Considering he was running a furlong longer in the San Vicente, this was a much more demanding pace.

In the San Vicente, The Factor kept going at a swift pace through 6 furlongs in 1:07.34.  Top flight older sprinters like Euroears and Cost of Freedom ran final 6 furlongs times of 1:07 and 1; thus at the very least, The Factor, right now, could be one of the best open sprinters in California or even the nation.

With such a fast 6 furlong split, The Factor left himself in a position to break Twirling Candy's 7 furlong track record of 1:19 and 3, something some observers were undoubtedly expecting. Had The Factor been able to close in the San Vicente like he did in his maiden, the record would have been easily his.  However, The Factor showed he's not quite ready for the Hall of Fame yet, tiring his final eighth like all but the true greats would have following such a pace.  His 13 second final split allowed Sway Away to make up about 5 lengths late, narrowing The Factor's winning margin to but a modest 3/4ths a length.  

The final time of 1:20.34 for the San Vicente was virtually identical to the time posted by Smiling Tiger in the San Carlos on Saturday.  In the San Carlos, however, the horses went slow early(23 for the first quater) before finishing rapidly.  The Santa Anita track is absurdly fast, and allows horses to put up crazy fast splits, whether early or in the stretch.  Yet, no horse has been able to blaze early and then still blaze late.  Horses have gone out in 43 and even 42 for the first half(Euroears, Cost of Freedom), but tired just enough to finish over 1:07 and 1:20(Twirling Candy the one sub-1:20), while others(The Factor's maiden, San Carlos) have posted moderate early fractions before exploding late with final quaters of 22 and 23.

For fans of Beyer figures, the San Carlos received a 98, so expect the same for the San Vicente.  I huge fig would not be warranted given group 3 Euro horse Surrey Star was beaten less than 5 and plodding Sinai(consistent 84 Beyer horse) was beaten 8.

In and of itself, it was a brave performance by The Factor, duelling City Cool into submission, turning back the quality Premier Pegasus, and then opening up enough of a lead so that Sway Away never really threatened.  However, in the Kentucky Derby picture, the performance left alot of questions.

First, I was a little surprised The Factor wasn't able to settle off City Cool, especially considering the pace.  Garcia probably did the best thing and simply let The Factor go rather than fight him(see Tapizar), given The Factor desperately needs graded stakes earnings; this was virtually a must-win race.  Suffice to say, The Factor won't be able to go 43 and be anywhere near the winner at 2 turns.  

Obviously, one is justified to have concerns about whether The Factor can rate, with this being the key to whether he can be effective at a distance.  In that regard, the San Vicente didn't provide answers; we'll have to wait for his next race, possibly the San Felipe.  Baffert is as good as any trainer in the history of the Triple Crown, and he clearly thinks The Factor has a world of talent.  Yet, it might take all his abilities to get The Factor to go 10 furlongs.  

As for the also-rans, clearly the new buzz horse is going to be Sway Away.  And deservedly so, because he did run a remarkable race.  In his first start in half a year, Sway Away dropped to last on a track favoring speed, and then unleashed a dazzling turn of foot coming into the stretch. Sway Away appeared to drift in the stretch, but he was still able to enhale the likes of Sinai and Premier Pegasus and finish within a length of The Factor.  

It's possible Sway Away is simply a late running sprinter, but his pedigree suggests that 2 turns should not be an issue.  Sway Away is by Afleet Alex out of a Seattle Slew mare.  If Sway Away can transfer even half of his explosiveness to 2 turns, he could be a serious Derby horse.  Although Sway Away's action, with head held upright, doesn't look much like his daddy,  his ability to accelerate certainly does.  And remember, Afleet Alex started as a late running sprinter before going on to win the Belmont.  From Baffert's comments after the race, he, at the very least, recognizes Sway Away as an elite talent.

Finally, do not get too down on Premier Pegasus.  Yes, he lost ground through a slow final eighth, but this horse had all of 3 published works in the last 3 months.  PrePeg was a short horse and he ran like it.  In fact, given how little preparation he had, the fact he was able to sit right off that 43 and change pace and still hold it together at all in the stretch is a sign of a serious horse.

What makes PrePeg such an interesting Derby prospect is his breeding.  He is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Summer Squall mare; that's a distance pedigree.  PrePeg has yet to run further than 7 furlongs, but all indications are that he should be a very effective stalker around 2 turns.  

Myung Kwon Cho has repeatedly thrown Riveting Reason to the wolves, with that horse performing quite respectfully, but it's clear he believes PrePeg to be the clearly superior horse.  My guess is that PrePeg's style at 2 turns will be similar to stablemate Riveting Reason, but that PrePeg will prove to be about 5 lengths superior.  

I'm not sure where these horses, and the other Cali prospects go from here.  Basically, all that's left in SoCal is the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.  There are alot of prospects but not alot of races.  Either a good third of the trainers head out of town, or the San Felipe could have The Factor, Sway Away, PrePeg, Jaycito, Runflatout, Astrology, Silver Medallion, Awesome Patriot, Indian Winter(surprise late scratch from San Vicente), Comma to the Top, Clubhouse Ride, Anthony's Cross, Riveting Reason, and Jacksam.  

21 Feb 2011 2:59 AM
GunBow

Note:

Clearly Team Beyer thought the Santa Anita surface was a little slow after heavy rain Saturday night because The Factor received a 102 for the San Vicente compared to Smiling Tiger's 98.  Looking at the raw times, it does appear the track Sunday was about as slow as it has been all meet.

Sway Away will get about a 100 and PrePeg a 95.  Those are excellent figs for horses coming off layoffs.  Both horses, good on synthetic, ran much faster on dirt.

21 Feb 2011 3:04 AM
GunBow

Forgot to include Bench Points among the San Felipe prospects.

There is no question that the return to dirt has allowed some really brilliant Derby prospects to strut their stuff.  What's unfortunate is that all of these wonderfully brilliant horses are way behind in their development.  Most likely, the road to Kentucky out West will still run through Jaycito.

21 Feb 2011 3:10 AM
sodapopkid

Is Ted from LA crying yet?  They say the movie 'Titanic' even made grown men cry.  "Is that you I hear sniffling, Ted?" lol.....

I think the Factor ran great,  but I also think Sway Away ran a terrific race coming from all the waaaaaaay baaaaaack like he did..

Draynay,   Don't put all your eggs in one basket to soon. I wish it looked so easy for MO, but it doesn't.  It's a long road and he has alot to do in it.   Haven't you been paying attention to all these other young bloods?  they are on the horizon too.

Poor MO,  He's got that "monkey" on his back and it's sure to throw a wrench in his quest. That so called 'monkey' is the Draynay curse.   UMO didnt deserve this.  I wish we could do something to get it off him.   Does Ted from LA know any magic tricks or anything we can do to get the dreaded Draynay(the monkey) curse off UMO's back?   Please help if you can,  Maybe after you get through with the Titanic movie and a box of Kleenex tissues,  you can think of something.lol...

21 Feb 2011 6:20 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

“Uncle Mo's imminent return to the track must be driving you nuts.”

I cannot see why you continue to ignore the real reason I have an issue with the Uncle Mo. I have given the colt credit where it is due and have commented on his brilliant. However, many of his supporters have lowered the bar of greatness to his to match his achievements and I take exception with this. He has not achieved anything that has not been achieved before and therefore his performances do not set him apart from other champion 2YOs. I hope you will now be guided by the aforementioned statement. I like every other thoroughbred enthusiast is awaiting the 3YO debut of the champion 2YO to evaluate his transition from 2 to 3. The same anticipation exists for To Honor and Server. The derby does not start and end with Uncle Mo.

“Are you now saying that Bind is the fastest debutante you've seen since greased lightning?”

My writing skills are limited and it is clear my collection of word regarding Bind winning time did not properly communicate the point I was trying to make. The Factor & Uncle Mo recorded their fast times on tracks significantly faster than the Fairground strip. I specifically stated that I had never seen a time of 1:08 plus recorded on that slow strip. When such a time is recorded by a colt with a routers pedigree it has to be viewed as exceptional. Uncle Mo’s stable companion Brethren recoded a time of 1:08 plus for his debut and I did not comments of his time in spite of the fact that it was faster than that of Uncle Mo. The Belmont track with its wide turns is known for fast times. If you would come up for air from your submerged position in Mr. Pletcer’s cool aid pool you would be acknowledge a debut performance that supersede that of his star colt.

“And how can you compare a smashing 2YO debutante of last August (Uncle Mo) with "just come/ fly by night" 3Yos”

The above statement clearly confirms that you are on the botom Mr. Pletcer’s cool aid pool. A well bred colt makes a belated start and he falls into the category of a “fly by night" 3YO”

Do you recall a $3.4M colt by the name Dunkirk? He made a smashing debut in a belated start to his racing career. Was he a fly by night 3YO? He probably was as he was whipped by a $9,500 gelding in the derby. This colt was bred by reputable folks and to disparage their colt after a smashing debut as a fly by night 3YO is a new low for you.

“The Factor and Bind?  Sounds like desperation to me.”

I request that you educate me as to when an awesome display of speed equate to desperation.

“Bind is a promising colt that has the same Claiborne connections as HOTY runner-up Blame”

I am happy you have recalled the connections. How could you forget? After all, Blame inflected a career changing defeat on older stable star Quality Road.  I suspect they will take the conservative path and that is understandable. I think this colt could be special. He just as fast as Mo and has better TC pedigree.

“Certainly not after March 13 when Uncle Mo gives everyone a preview of the mountain they'll have to climb”

What are you expecting 1:35 like Big Brown or a NTR like Bandini? To serve warning he has to run 1:33 plus in hand. He has already run 1:34 so that should be easy as he is more mature.

“It appears that you are latching on to any fast newcomers”

Like many posters I merely commented on an exceptional performance on a track known for slow time. Jason was worried that Mo would not have any competition in either Tampa bay or New York. I mentioned Fort Hughes because I saw him as a colt with the speed to engage Mo and consequently let him know he was in a race. I think if Fort Hughes can carry his speed he will be able to extent Mo for the better part of the Wood. How does that equate to latching on?

You are obviously so focused on Mr. Pletchers barn that this has inhibited you ability to acknowledge other talent. Dialed In carries too much weight upfront to win the derby. He carried 116Lbs in the HB. Add another 10Lbs and 2F and his bib body becomes a liability. Mucho Macho Man has no chance of winning the derby if Santiva is matching stride with him in the stretch. I would advise you to read my post on Saturday regarding Sway Away and you could find a colt with derby winning potential.

21 Feb 2011 9:39 AM
Billy's Empire

www.youtube.com/watch

Bind's race.

21 Feb 2011 9:53 AM
The Rock

I was very impressed with Bind's performance at the Fair Grounds. He had some really sharp works coming in and the word was out on him. And he did it very easily.

Karen in Texas, he did remind me of Curlin a bit when he broke his maiden, without the right turn Curlin made towards the Gulfstream grandstands down the stretch that day! lol. But Bind on paper looked like he was going to do something big, and he came through. Very impressive.

Also forgotten in all this is Mildly Offensive, who broke his maiden in his debut at Santa Anita in 1:08 1/5 for Carla Gaines and Rafael Bejarano from post 10. This horse was coming into the race off of a couple of 1:10 n change works @ 6f's with a 57 bullet for 5fs. Word was out on him as well and he did it somewhat professionally. He had a little trouble changing leads turning for home but once he did, he came home runnin'. Watch out for this horse as well. And that MSW race was loaded with talent. Should be a key race later down the road.

I've been looking for a horse to really catch my eye. And maybe its just me wanting to find a horse that can match up with Uncle Mo, which is a tall order in itself, but I thought Bind had all the ingredients you would want to be up to the challenge. Too bad he started too late in his campaign, but it could be a blessing in disguise. The TC trail can ruin a horse. Wouldn't be surprised to see him pointed to the Rebel.

21 Feb 2011 9:54 AM
the illuminati

Uncle Mo has had a great THREE race career but he is far from a lock to even make the race.As for the derby future bet I can see most of the posters play the bet with HOPE as a neccessary part of their expectation of an outcome,which is not entirely bad but with too much hope comes a LOT of luck.

First there are three bets so betting uncle mo at these low odds dosent make sense.Second for the most part so far the horses ranked at the top have not run yet in 2011,so you are betting on their 2yo accomplishments.Third there is one requisite to even make it into the gate that betters are overlooking.

21 Feb 2011 10:28 AM
Footlick

I would have no problem seeing The Factor pointed for the Met Mile.  I think it would be a great target for him

21 Feb 2011 11:30 AM
Ranagulzion

Gun Bow,

Your posts made great reading and I especially appreciated your assessment of The Factor's performance.  I think that good sense will prevail and that they wont break his spirit by sending him to the Derby to be fried, compliments of Yum Brands.

Looking at the California contingent, I have a hunch that Comma To The Top will be back at the top.  I have bought into the argument that he needed the race in the El Camino Real.  If he and The Factor knock heads early neither will survive the final furlong but "Comma" seems to be rateable.  I'll reserve judgment on Sway Away's readiness for the Derby until after his next race.

21 Feb 2011 12:08 PM
Ted from LA

Ted from LA would name the offspring of Rachel and Curlin "Curchel."  Get it?  So I try to get in touch with my femine side and this is the thanks I get.  I cried every time the woman yelled, "JACK!"  This weekend I might go camping and try to get in touch with my inner-hairy man.  Draynay, if you get off Mo, I will donate 16 million dollars in your name to my Human Fund.

21 Feb 2011 12:59 PM
Matthew W

Lucky Timing, I think he's #4 in the 7th at Santa Anita--9-2 odds--overcame a horrible trip to break his maiden easily--with a cleaner trip, he'll be tough to beat today vs winners--I've been waiting for him, he's on my list of horses to watch/play--and it's a small list--Lucky Timing today--he may drop to, say, 7-2--all he needs is a clean break, then Brice Blanc needs to keep him outta trouble--just bring him home wide--I think he's best....

21 Feb 2011 1:16 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I notice that you've become very rigorous in defending your positions.  No problem.  Your cards are on the table and so are mine.  All that's left now is for our accounts to be settled on the track.  

I do feel a need however to repudiate your constant repition about drinkin Pletcher cool aid.  I'm on record as being one of Todd Pletcher's harshest hecklers in 2009 for his abysmal Derby record and his disingenuous comments following Dunkirk's crushing defeat at the hands of Quality Road (then trained by Jimmy Jerkins) in the Florida Derby.  In 2010, by insight and foresight, I perceived that he was loaded with the best 3YOs on the Kentucky derby trail including the brilliant (but unfortunate) Eskendereya and boldly predicted that he would breakthrough with his first Derby victory.  I was PROVEN RIGHT in this respect. In other words, on-the-track results validated my bold assertions. I got it right Coldfacts.  This year I'm not as gung-ho about his string of 3YOs, except for the incredibly brilliant Uncle Mo.  I am not shy to describe and classify Uncle Mo in the superlative because I'm no rookie in this game.  I've seen many brilliant ones and I know a very special one when I see him/her.  I'll repeat, Mo is not just brilliant, he is special my friend, and so far you have not acknowledged that ...presumably because of your penchant for spotting the "underdog/ outsider".

Bind has run once.  Let him prove that he's no flash-in-the-pan with an encore performance.  Until then he's a "just come/ fly by night" 3YO colt.  It's funny how three smashing performances by Mo doesn't really impress you that much but ONE flasy debut by Bind or two by California speedball, The Factor has you over the moon about their Derby chances.  Once again, no problem my friend.  I respect your opinion and enjoy the debate.  BTW please tell me if you regard Bind's belated debut as an issue in forcasting his chances in the Derby.    

21 Feb 2011 1:18 PM
Carlos in Cali

10-1 on To Honor And Serve?...

That's the best odds you'll get on him the rest of the year.I'm all in,thanks DFW!

21 Feb 2011 1:40 PM
2:24

Just watched Bind's race.  Wow, very impressive.

21 Feb 2011 1:56 PM
Forbidden Apple

Dialed In is the current heavyweight champ of the 3 y.o. colt division until someone fires a better race than his Holy Bull performance. Since he is still learning, I hope Zito sends him out in the F.O.Y. to gain more racing experience. He needs to be ridden instead of sitting on the shelf getting dusty and rusty like last years 2 y.o. champion.

Coldfacts,

You nailed it last week when you mentioned Sway Away as your pick in the San Vicente. Sway Away had his head held high and put forth the Maglev performance of the week! He has to be the most talented maiden in the country. when I saw him flying down the stretch I thought I was watching the next coming of Midnight Lute. I would safely say that the Santa Anita Derby is his for the taking. If The Factor stays on the Triple Crown trail he will give Uncle Mo fits on the front end. I don't see any horse that can hang with The Factor and be around at the finish line.

Bind was extremely impressive and will be scary later on in the year. I just don't see Al Stall pushing this horse towards the KY Derby. He is a classy horseman and is not out for the quick $ and return on investment like racings golden boy trainer.

21 Feb 2011 2:19 PM
spendabuck1985

Uncle Mo can no way get a 1 1/4.  For anyone to put money on him at 5/2 right now is crazy!

21 Feb 2011 2:19 PM
Draynay

Geez.  I have never seen so much garbage written on this blog.  Why on earth is ANYONE talking about The Factor?  When he meets another speed horse he is done.  He struggled at 7 furlongs the jockey almost jumped off to drag him home that last furlong. Illuminati? What on earth are you talking about? What horse do you know of as a 2 year old wins his maiden and back to back G1 races including the 2 year old championship?  May I remind you that Uncle Mo beat every horse on the Derby trail by 10 to 20 lengths at the Breeders Cup.  Did you not see that?  You think Jaycito and Stay Thirsty have improved 15 lengths?  Complete nonsense.  It's bad enough I had to listen to people talk about Machen for 3 weeks.  This year it's not about who will win the Derby we know Uncle Mo will win.  This year the only question is who can Zito put in the Belmont to stop UM from winning the Triple Crown because Pletcher isn't going to put one of his studs in the Belmont to beat him.

21 Feb 2011 2:37 PM
Draynay

Coldfacts, I am sorry I forgot about you.  You have no idea what you are talking about.  If you don't see greatness in Uncle Mo you are blind.

21 Feb 2011 2:40 PM
tcc

Santa Anita Park:

Clubhouse Ride injured, off Kentucky Derby trail

21 Feb 2011 3:14 PM
Dutch

Alright, my money's going on Ted from LA for the win!

21 Feb 2011 4:04 PM
GunBow

The Rock:

Yes, Mildly Offensive was very impressive in Saturday's 6th race at Santa Anita.  However, Mildly Offensive is a filly.

Mildly Offensive won the maiden race by 4 easy lengths in 1:08 and 1; with horses putting up video game times at Santa Anita, this 1:08 and 1 is not as impressive as it would be at other tracks, but it's still strong.  And she did it, as Trevor pointed out, with a touch of class.

I am very impressed with this crop of 3 year olds.  We are seeing some serious talent; the unfortunate part is that so many of these incredible talents are lacking foundation and will be asked to do things few horses have ever been able to do.

Had Uncle Mo been running last year, he would have been clearly superior to all but Esky and Lookin at Lucky, with not much to even warm him up.  Uncle Mo's advantage in pure talent is not so great this year.  There have been some jaw-dropping performances by lightly raced youngsters the last 3 months, as the talent gap has shrunk.

Where Uncle Mo has his biggest advantage is that he has a championship juvenile season under his belt, and has won a grade 1 around 2 turns at Churchill.

21 Feb 2011 4:25 PM
GunBow

Matthew W:

I was at Los Al for the Winter Championship.  I too have liked Good Reason for a while.  I saw him in person win the 09' Los Al 2 Million Futurity and last year's gr.1 Golden State Derby.  For thoroughbred fans, Good Reason is by Favorite Trick and looks very much like his late father.

While I think Good Reason is a deserving horse, overall I was disappointed in the race.  The final time of 19.32 was not particularly fast, especially since 3 year old Oatman won the Winter Derby the night before in 19.16.

Sadly, it appears Freaky just doesn't have that spark that made him so sensational and popular.  I wasn't totally shocked by his 6th place performance because I really didn't think his trial win was up to par either.  He just doesn't have that power, that explosiveness that made up for his relatively small size.

Jess You and I ran well, but it appears 3rd place is his ceiling these days in the big events at Los Al.  I wouldn't be surprised if they take him back to Oklahoma for a spring/summer campaign.

Without question the performance of the weekend at Los Al was Oatman's smashing 1.5 length win in the Winter Derby.  Oatman is a big, tall 3 year old gelding that has gotten good in a remarkably short time.  He has always had a decent kick, but now that he's breaking fast he's definitely the 3 year old to beat at Los Al and maybe even Ruidoso.

21 Feb 2011 4:44 PM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

Is that what you said when Uncle Moe demolished the field in his first race, that he had to prove that he wasn’t a flash in the pan?  Bind obviously needs to prove that he isn't a flash in the pan, but I would venture to say that when comparing the first starts of all the two year olds from last year that are three this year and all the first time starters at three, Bind’s performance was the best first race of any of them be far.  His time was a full second faster than Beautician’s in a stakes race earlier on the card.  He didn’t set the pace, he came from off of it, getting his final quarter in 23.87 and this was the fastest 6F at the Fairgrounds in at least three years.  His breeding is also much more encouraging than Uncle Mo’s when it comes to getting the 10F.  This guy obviously has a huge upswing and just might be legitimate.

21 Feb 2011 4:44 PM
Draynay

GunBow? Huh? You are comparing LAL to Uncle Mo?  You have to be kidding.

21 Feb 2011 5:08 PM
GunBow

For those that haven't seen a replay of Saturday's San Luis Obispo, you are missing the race of the weekend.

There is little question that when it comes to marathon turf racing, North America lags well behind Europe, Japan, and probably Australia and maybe even Hong Kong.  

Right now, the marathon turf division in North America is particularly weak.  However, in my opinion Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay are solid marathon turfers, easily the best out West and arguably the two best in all North America(Gio Ponti not a true 12 furlong horse, and Champ Pegasus easily handled Winchester in the BC Turf).  Well, in the San Luis Obispo Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay got together for a 3rd time since October and absolutely threw it down.

Whereas Bourbon Bay was able to stalk Champ Pegasus when winning the San Marcos last month, in the San Luis Obispo it was Champ Pegasus doing the stalking, and that, and Mandella getting Champ' in better condition, made the difference.

Bourbon Bay inherited the lead in the San Luis Obispo a little earlier than I'm sure Drysdale and Bejarano wanted, but Bourbon Bay was going strongly.  However, before Bourbon Bay could blow the race open, Champ Pegasus pounced quickly, and by the 8th pole was at Bourbon Bay's throat.  It appeared Rosario on Champ' had Bourbon' measured, but Bourbon' never conceded, and fought back gamely.  In the end, Champ won by a nose, but a head-bob earlier it could have been a deadheat.

A maiden about 10 months ago, Champ Pegasus has now won 3 graded stakes, including a grade 1, and placed in 3 others, with his BC Turf runner-up the most notable.  Given he has proven that he can run well over multiple surfaces and that he can ship, I do rate Champ Pegasus slightly higher than Bourbon Bay as my #1 marathon tuf male.  Close behind I have Bourbon Bay, Winchester, with Prince Will I Am a little lower.  However, my #2 would have to be Paddy O' Prado.  If they keep him strictly on turf, he could have a huge season competing in what will likely be weak gr.1s such as the Manhattan, Man O' War, UN, Sword Dancer, and Turf Classic.

The disappointing news coming out of the San Luis Obispo is that it appears both Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay are headed for Dubai and the $5 million Sheema.  The San Luis Rey and San Juan Capistrano have great tradition, but being gr.2 races now and with purses of just $150k, they simply don't offer enough to keep the top horses from going to Dubai.  As a result, American fans are going to be denied a turf rivalry the like of which we haven't seen out West since Kotashaan and Bien Bien.

21 Feb 2011 5:13 PM
Draynay

Until The Factor is fast on a track like Churchill, Saratoga, or Belmont I don't want to hear about it anymore.  Let him run a sub 109 at the Fairgrounds like Bind then come talk to me.

21 Feb 2011 5:14 PM
Draynay

Mr. Baffert please don't use Uncle Mo and The Factor in the same sentence.

21 Feb 2011 5:15 PM
GunBow

I think Laz sums up Uncle Mo well.  There's no guarantee that Uncle Mo will be better at 3 than he was at 2, but there's also no reason to believe he won't be considerably better.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Those predicting Triple Crown glory for Uncle Mo see him making that next step in development that greats like Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed made from their juvenile seasons to their sophomore campaigns.  The Uncle Mo optimists are also banking on the fact that Uncle Mo will be as good at classic distances as he is at middle distances and sprints.

So, let's say Uncle Mo improves 5 lengths from his 2 year old form.  That would put him in the 116 Beyer range.  It's hard to imagine that if Uncle Mo runs a 116 in the Wood that anything will be within 5 lengths of him at the finish.  Now, let's assume that Uncle Mo turns out to be just as effective at 10 furlongs as he is at 8.5.  So, Uncle Mo will go out and run a 116 in the Derby.  In the last 20 years, the highest Derby Beyers have been Unbridled-116, Monarchos-116, and Silver Charm-115.  If Uncle Mo runs a 116 in the Derby, it is extremely unlikely anybody beats him.

That's the optimistic view.  What if Uncle Mo does improve as a 3 year old but he turns out to be best at middle distances?  Under this scenario, Uncle Mo romps in the Wood with that 116 Beyer, but his pedigree betrays him at classic distances, so that he is 5 lengths slower at 10 furlongs than he is at 8.5/9.  In that case, the distance limitations nullify his improvement with age, and he runs a 108 in the Derby.  That still might be good enough to win, but the margin for error is much smaller.

The outlook is similar if we assume that Uncle Mo doesn't improve at 3, but that he's equally effective at 10 furlongs as he is at 8.5.  In this case, Uncle Mo wins the Wood with a 108 and then runs that same number back in the Derby.  Again, a 108 may be good enough to win the Derby, but there are no guarantees.

What if, Uncle Mo doesn't improve at 3 AND he proves to be less effective at classic distances than he is at middle distances.  If Uncle Mo comes back the same horse he was at 2, his 108 figs will likely be good enough to win races like the Wood.  But if he falters at 10 furlongs, and is something like 3 lengths inferior at that distance compared to 8.5/9 furlongs, then his Derby Beyer will be 103.  Now, in an "off" year like 05', a 103 would still have been good enough to win, but even Super Saver and Mine That Bird ran better winning Beyers.

Then there is the last scenario, one in which Uncle Mo is actually slower at 3 than he was at 2(think Devil's Bag, Success Express, War Pass), and he wants no part of 10 furlongs.  Personally, I think this is unlikely, but it wouldn't be the first time.

21 Feb 2011 6:03 PM
the_wiz

Anthony's Cross at 45-1 was juicy enough for me. Here's a horse who improved 20 lengths in 72 days from his Nov 4 (1:47) to Jan 15 (1:43) races at 1 1/16. Who was the amateur anyway who said no horse could improve a mere 10 lengths in 80 days? Oh ya that was our resident contrarian draynay.

His next out in the R. Lewis he improved another 8 lengths  (1:41.15 for the 1 1/16 and 1:48.6 for 1 1/8))and has now run faster at 1 1/16 than Uncle Moe ever has. Uncle Moe has 6 lengths to make up on him now if you drink the draynay elixir of logic. The fractions for the R Lewis were very fast and he was right there stalking then taking over the whole way. He also owns a win over the CD surface and has plenty of foundation as a 2 yr old and will be going into the Derby off 3 starts this year. My only concern is the distance (and that PA Bred thing) but distance concerns apply to them all including Moe so 45/1 was too good to be true. SA Derby next for this one.      

21 Feb 2011 6:08 PM
GunBow

Draynay:

You have to be kidding.  When did I compare The Factor with Uncle Mo? Where in my long review of the San Vicente do I write that The Factor is ready for Uncle Mo around 2 turns?  I'll save you some time; I didn't.

I wrote that this year's crop has more brilliance than last year's crop and that on talent alone Uncle Mo has less of an advantage this year than he would have had if he were running last year. There are some really fast propsects out there.  The problem with these prospects, the impressive Bind included, is that they haven't proven themselves around 2 turns and don't have any foundation.  As such, Uncle Mo has a huge advantage on them.  

Uncle Mo has demonstrated brilliance AND he is proven around 2 turns in a gr.1 AND he has a solid 2 year old foundation.  The only thing The Factor has going for him is pure speed and brilliance; he doesn't have the foundation and his 2 turn capabilities are alot more supsect than Uncle Mo's.

21 Feb 2011 6:15 PM
Footlick

We need a shut off switch

21 Feb 2011 6:19 PM
no mo mo

Uncle Moe will not win the KY. Derby. I repeat Uncle Moe will not win the KY Derby. I hope he continues to win and runs because it will be a pleasure to take all the suckers money.

21 Feb 2011 6:31 PM
Ranagulzion

All those who place To Honour and Serve in the same sentence with Uncle Mo have no clue. Ha ha ha. I'm not demeaning THS, he's a promising colt.  Just saying get real.

21 Feb 2011 6:36 PM
LAZMANNICK

Uncle Mo is great but he just might find himself in a Bind before the year is over.

21 Feb 2011 6:38 PM
LAZMANNICK

We just saw another of the better two year olds from last year not look all that great at three.  Maybe a little traffic trouble but JP's Gusto had no excuse and neither did Alite Alex.  Actually Draynay I had the winner of this race (stricly a hunch bet), but am kicking myslef.  A $31 winner that combined with the fav and 2nd fav for a Tri that paid $425.  

21 Feb 2011 6:46 PM
tcc

Dialed In will skip Fountain of Youth Stakes

21 Feb 2011 6:53 PM
mike s.

off subject, but isn't it time for top money earner to pick their post in a insane 20 horse field. the factor is nice horse, but running at daytonna-oh i mean santa anita, and running on churchill's dirt are like night and day.

21 Feb 2011 7:01 PM
skyfire

In Baffert's hands, The Factor  will be a factor. BB is a magician, very smart guy.  When The Factor races, I don't think the others will catch him.  Baffert's comments today indicate they won't push him, ruin him, just to make Derby.  

21 Feb 2011 7:14 PM
Ranagulzion

Lazmznnick,

I quote you "This guy obviously has a huge upswing and just might be legitimate."  Clearly you are not yet certain about Bind's legitimacy.  Am I right to infer that you want to see him do it again?  If so, we are in agreement.  That's my point about Bind.  I also like his pedigree, being from the more precocious Pulpit branch of the late blooming AP Indy/Seattle Slew sire line.

Laz you need to be fair when comparing the auspicious debut of a 2YO running in August versus a 3YO debuting in late February.  Bind was impressive but Uncle Mo was devastating as a 2YO and confirmed his class twice after his debut.  As far as I'm concerned he is in a league all by himself until I see his stocks lowered.  So far Dialed In has looked like he could pose a challenge going 10 Furlongs with further improvement.  Also Mucho Macho Man looks like the type that has a break-out performance looming that could send him into the Mo-kind of orbit around two turns.  I really liked his Risen star performance.  Sweet Ducky, Santiva and Brethren have cemented places in my top twelve.  Others I like are the hard knocking Gourmet Dinner, Jaycito, Soldat, Anthony's Cross, Supreme Ruler (love his pedigree and potential) and Premier Pegasus.  I need to see Sway Away again and my door is still opened for others like Floridian upsetter Reprized Halo, the much hyped Elite Alex and a rebounding Comma to the Top. Peace.  

21 Feb 2011 7:22 PM
-Keelerman

Nice win by Archarcharch in the Southwest Stakes this afternoon. He had to come four wide around the turn, but still had enough left to hold off J P's Gusto. It's apparent now that something wasn't right with this colt in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Perhaps he didn't care for the off track that day.

I was very impressed by Elite Alex, who was wide all the way around the track. Forced to go six wide around the far turn, he still closed well enough to finish third.

Also, keep an eye on Picko's Pride. Sent off at 70-1, he had to steady off the heels of Elite Alex soon after the start, yet somehow rallied to finish fourth. Intriguing!

-Keelerman

21 Feb 2011 7:41 PM
2:24

Certainly would have liked to have seen a better performance out of Elite Alex.  Will still root for him but he seems a cut below.  Thought Alternation's allowance win two races earlier was the most impressive three year old performance at Oaklawn today.  Distorted Humor is rolling this year.

21 Feb 2011 7:47 PM
Draynay

GunBow, this blog is called Triple Crown Talk.  Why bring up The Factor if we are talking about the Triple Crown?  Lets talk about The Factor when we talk about the King Bishop.

21 Feb 2011 7:53 PM
Sunny Lee

Uncle Mo once defeated The Factor by 10 lengths.  He was then awakened from his dream by a roundhouse hoof to the head.  

21 Feb 2011 7:58 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple

You seem to be the only one that sees my posts. I got two bad beats in consecutive weeks. I hope I can pass the post in front in one eventually. Sway Away has to be exceptional to break the derby jinks associated with his sire and dam sire. The last horse to win the derby whose sire won two legs of the TC and finished in the top three in the other  leg and whose dam was unraced was the 1949 winner Ponder.  His sire Pensive won the Derby, Preakness and was 2nd in the Belmont. His dam Miss Rushin was unraced. Since 1950 about 27 colts have won two legs of the TC and those who have sired crops to race have not had any success in the derby. Consequently Sway Away’s sire Afleet Alex falls into a category that is jinks. His dam sire TC winner Seattle Slew falls into another jinks category. Records reflect that Seattle Slew’s broodmare band that has produce runners numbered 407. Only one has produced the winner of a TC race to date. The three modern day Triple Crown winners Seattle Slew, Affirmed & Secretariat have a combined broodmare band of 1066. None have produced a derby winner. The last derby winner that was sires by a winner of a TC race and whose dam was also sired by the winners of a TC race was 1963 winner Chateaugay. He was sired by derby winner Swaps and his dam by Preakness winner Polynesian. It has been 48 years since that pedigree profile has been successful.

If any horse can break the many jinks and dry spell it is Sway Away. I think he is that good.

21 Feb 2011 8:14 PM
PMAC14

GunBow

Excellent analysis about MO. I lean toward outcomes 2 and 4.  I dont think he will win the derby.  There seems to be alot of talent this year just starting to roll and the 20 horse field(disgusting) will prove to much. However, I do think he will be in the super and maybe the tri.  On another note, boy do I love the Derby exotic payoffs.  So close everytime but always have just 2 of the 3 or 3 of the 4. I did hit tri in Summer Birds Belmont but it only paid around 375.  

To be honest, I really just miss Big Z.  Once in a lifetime!!!!!

21 Feb 2011 8:17 PM
WinPlaceNoShow

I was checking the roadtotheroses.com fantasy game and as I am scrolling through all the horses to pick from I notice Bind was not a selection option, but the horse he beat, Red Ace was.  Now I'm not saying he's gonna win the Kentucky Derby, but the horse can really be a factor in the prep races.

21 Feb 2011 8:26 PM
GunBow

The Southwest told me absolutely nothing.

The winner, Archarcharch, was one of the few in the field that got a good trip on the outside while not being too wide, cleared the field, and held on to win.  The time of 1:38 and 1 was not particularly impressive and they came home slow the the last quarter(26 seconds).

Archarcharch was able to get a perfect stalking position in 5th early off a fast pace.  Then, Jon Court on Archarcharch took Ramon Dominguez on JP's Gusto to school, getting the jump on that one to the outside while keeping him boxed in.  As JP's Gusto and a bunch of others struggled to find room as the early speed came back, Archarcharch was getting an unimpeded run on the far outside, and by the time they hit the stretch the race was over.

Archarcharch does have good distance breeding, but if that's the best he can do with a perfect trip, he's a 2nd tier contender.  Still, he'll have options to make some money.

JP's Gusto has already made alot of money and has actually already outrun his pedigree.  One can never know for certain, but with a clean trip he's at least in a photo with Arch x 3.  After having been spanked on dirt in the BC, JP did answer the surface question in the Southwest; it appears the reason JP was so badly beaten in the BC was not surface but the level of competition.

JP has a sprinters pedigree, and he looks like a sprinter, but this was his 2nd straight 2 turn race in which he was finishing fastest of all.  In the Hollywood Futurity JP also experienced traffic problem on the far turn, was forced to check out from the inside, swing outside while losing position, then outclosed both Gourmet Dinner and Clubhouse Ride while cutting Comma to the Top's 5 length advantage to less than 2.

In the Soutwest, Dominguez simply pulled the trigger too late, and allowed Archarcharch and then Elite Alex to get the jump on him, lose position, and be forced to wait for room to open up in the stretch.  When the room opened up, JP actually accelerated nicely and finished best of all.

So, with two weird trips in his last 2 races, JP has still been able to close well for 2nd both times.  If given an ideal trip, JP could have easily won the Southwest and made the Hollywood Futurity much more interesting.  

And in my opinion, an ideal trip for JP is stalking like he did in the Sothwest and H. Futurity, but being the FIRST stalker to make a run on the leaders.  Especially as the distances get longer, JP's best chance is to get the jump on the horses with superior stamina, open up and then hold on.  In his last two, questionable rides lost him the first jump and with it any tactical advantage, and he was forced to have kick with the late runners.  The fact he was able to still get 2nd both times reflects his class, heart, and intelligence.  Frankly, I never thought JP would rate so kindly.

With this said, I still don't view JP as a serious Derby horse.  Like I said, he's surprised me a little that he's lasted this long on the trail.  Keep in my mind this was his first start after recently being sent to a new trainer in a new environment.

Elite Alex ran ok to be 3rd.  Elite Alex had a clear trip, but he had to go outside of Arch x3, in the 6 path, and this after being wide the first turn.  Still, once straightened up, he actually lost ground to JP's Gusto. He likely wasn't helped by the short stretch(finish line further up).  It wasn't a bad stakes debut, but it also wasn't as flashy as some had hoped for.

Behind the top 3 there were plenty of excuses to justify going down the Trail.

Smarty Jones winner Caleb's Posse appeared set to deliver a strong closing kick on the rail, but he couldn't find room and only extracted himself well into the stretch.  Yankee Passion, 5th, was 5 wide on both turns, and even longshot 4th place finisher, Picko's Pride, had valid traffic excuses.

Archarcharch gets the spoils, including the graded earnings, but the Arkansas division appears more muddled after the Southwest than it was before.  In my opinion, it's ripe for an invader.

21 Feb 2011 8:31 PM
Coldfacts

Draynay,

“If you don't see greatness in Uncle Mo you are blind”

I have cautioned you before to be more measured in your comments about Uncle Mo. If Uncle Mo was to be retired today would he be eventually placed in the thoroughbred HOF? No. I do believe that’s where they place the great ones. Does the colt have the potential to be great? Yes. Is he the only one from the class of 2011 with this potential? No. You are counting your chicken before they are hatched. Mr. Pletcher has only one win in the great race. The derby is rarely won by the horse with the best credentials going in. The great Native Dancer got beat in the derby. It was his only loss in 22 starts. He was by far the best of his generation. I caution you again to be measured and open. The derby does not start and end with Uncle Mo.

NB: I do not have Uncle Mo in my top 12.

21 Feb 2011 8:43 PM
GunBow

Laz:

I disagree that JP's Gusto had no excuse.  Both the winner and Elite Alex got the jump on him while getting unimpeded runs, with JP having to wait for room.  The formula for success for JP is not trying to outkick the stretchrunners, but that's what he was forced to do as a result of an excellent ride by Jon Court on Archarcharch, and a curious ride by Dominguez.  In a race determined by a length, the ground JP lost waiting for room was crucial.

At least some room finally did open for JP; the same cannot be said of Caleb's Posse.  The connections of 5 or 6 horses could be leaving Oaklawn with the belief they had the best horse in the Southwest.

21 Feb 2011 8:43 PM
Footlick

Dray- just give it a rest.  GunBow gives information and knowledge when he posts.  They are well thought out and well written.  You bark obnoxiously.  

21 Feb 2011 8:49 PM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

Believe me, I do not come to bury Uncle Mo.  I think he’s the real deal (at least he was at two anyway), and I fully believe that he will be even better at three.  And I am not one of those that will not admit to how great he was and then try and find a horse that is better to prove my point.  My point means nothing.  Uncle Mo or another colt winning the Triple Crown means everything.

However, we seem to have a much deeper pool of three year olds this year than we’ve had lately and that also excites me.  Others might be up to the challenge and until we see Mo in a race, simply put, we do not know what to expect.  One of the reasons that horses do not improve or even keep their quality at three when having had a good two year old year is that the competition changes......dramatically.  Don’t forget that the majority of the horses Mo defeated last year aren’t going to be a factor this year.  His maiden and Champagne competitors are nowhere in site this year.  As far as the Juvenile, Boys at Tosconova is already off the TC trail.  Riveting Reason ran well in the Lewis, but still finished second.  JP’s Gusto didn’t look too impressive this afternoon and Rogue Romance is much better on turf than dirt.  And then there’s Jaycito......a top Derby trainer has him now and maybe he just might bring him around because his BC Juvenile performance has to be discounted.  There’s a overabundance of good ones out there that Mo hasn’t faced yet and until he does, and does well against them, even you have to admit there is a small linger of doubt.

Regarding Bind.  Simply put, his first performance was one of the most impressive of all that we’ve seen so far.  He was fast, professional and totally dominant.  Whether he is a Derby horse with so little foundation is a huge question mark.  He also has to go out and win at a distance and from this point on the waters will be much deeper.  All I’m saying is that at this point he has a huge legitimate upside.

21 Feb 2011 9:12 PM
LAZMANNICK

-Keelerman

I listened to the interview with the trainer after the Southwest and he said that the horse wasn't right in his last.  We must also remember that Arch broke his maiden in a minor stakes and was still eligible for a first level allowance.  He looked good though the time wasn't particulalry fast and he ran his final quarter in 26.1 in a mile race.  I was really expecting JP's Gusto to step up, especially with Ramon out there to ride him, and wonder what went wrong.

21 Feb 2011 9:18 PM
LAZMANNICK

GunBow

I was looking forward to see how JP's Gusto would do today, especially with Ramon out there to ride him.  His ride was questionable and I know JP experienced some trouble.  However the last quarter was in 26.1 and in a mile race I expected him to finish better and he didn't.  IMO, not a Derby threat performace.  I would have to think that a horse like Dialed In would have swooped this field and won as he pleased.

21 Feb 2011 9:54 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

You mentioned Anthony’s Cross but no mention of the colt he defeated by a nose Riveting Reason. All the horses you mentioned do not have the resume of Riveting Reason:

At 2YO

3rd Del Mar Futurity (G1,Dmr,7F),

3rd Norfolk S. (G1,OTH,8.5F)

8th Breeder Cup Juvenile (G1,CDH,8.5F)

5th Cash Call Futurity (G1,HOL,8.5F)

1st maiden 8.5F

At 3YO

2nd Robert Lewis (G2,SA,9F)

Nine starts: Three maidens, One Allownace, Four G1, One Gll. Approximately $148,000 in graded earnings and he cannot make your list. I guess Reprized Halo is more worthy.

21 Feb 2011 9:59 PM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

In an earlier post I calculated Bind to get a minimal 103 Beyer based on Beautician's 91 Beyer when she ran 6F a second slower than Bind earlier on the card.  Apparently Bind will receive a 105 Beyer which is exceptional for a first time starter.  This definitely is a good crop of three year olds.

21 Feb 2011 10:16 PM
The Bid

Bind does have uPsiDE...and MO doesn't????? Hmmmmmm...I must be living in an alternate Universe! NONE of the present crop recent Winners can eat the same bag of Oats or "BOOTY'S" as Mo!!! You ALL are talking as if Mo has a Bone Chip or is "mentally challenged" as some turned out recently!!March 12th is just around the corner...ALL questions WILL be answered and Dialed In is STILL running from dead last to finish 2nd just like Ice Box last year!!!Hate on MO all you want, just check out his numbers AGAIN...Whether Dray is on him or NOT, MO IS THE CLASS OF THIS CURRENT CROP and none of them will catch him...WANNA BET???$$$

21 Feb 2011 11:18 PM
WinPlaceNoShow

Watch out for Premier Pegasus. Though he didn't win the san vicente, more than anything else it was a learning race for him. He learned to sit off a fast pace, pass up horses, and even though he was never going to catch the baffert trainee, loved how he kept him within sight at all times. And with his pedrigree should relish the longer distances. Going out on a limb and saying he'll be the creme de la creme of the west when it's all said and done. I was befuddled as to why he wasn't a single in the KDFW!!  Oh well, guess just have to wait for pool 2.

21 Feb 2011 11:45 PM
Matthew W

Decent prep for J P's Gusto--he has the earnings--he doesn't need to win his preps--only needs to improve--he can afford to wait and peak on first Sat in May--don't count him out as a contender for the underneaths bets....agree with Gun Bow, there are many "Johnny Come Latelys", many whom won't be seasoned come May--more and nore it looks like the two turn horses from last year--Uncle Mo, Jaycito, To Honor And Serve-they look best to me, I am leaning towards horses that did it last year as opposed to the new kids on the block--but there are up and comers--lots of them....

22 Feb 2011 1:59 AM
sodapopkid

WOW, that Cozy Rosie sure did put on one hell of a display, didn't she?

I think the Moss's have another fine filly in their barn, two other fine fillies considering Zazu too.

Jason, will you get that "monkey" off UMO back.  Titanic Ted from LA offered money but to no avail.  I don't see a way UMO is going to prevail with this dreaded dray monkey.   So Sad, UMO is doomed now.

22 Feb 2011 6:15 AM
2:24

Amen Footlick.

22 Feb 2011 6:24 AM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts,

Some of the other bloggers don't give you repect because you have posed questions about another Pletcher runner. They seem to think that Uncle Mo is a Triple Crown winner before he even makes a start at three. As I learned on another blog recently, do not question Pletcher or his horses, he is racings golden boy and his horses are all champions. If you disrespect him, you will be labled a liar and bad for horse racing.

Your horse Riveting Reason ran a great race and seemed to lose by a nose because Anthony's Cross simply has a longer neck and bigger head. I agree with your comments on the KY Derby future bet, some of the horses listed were laughable. Your mention of Sway Away last week made me pay attention to him in the San Vicente. What physical problems did he have since last year? If he can stretch out around two turns, he will be very scary in the Santa Anita Derby. With his head so high in the air, freakish burst of speed, and his massive stride, I have him right up there with Dialed In. I only wish that Zito would have chosen to run in the F.O.Y. instead of waiting for the FL Derby with Dialed In. Another horse that I like alot is Break Up The Game, he is also a maiden like Sway Away. I thank you again for all of your time consuming research in the pursuit of value and talent. It's just to easy to sit back and assume that Mo is unbeatable and accept 1-9 on him.

Ranagulzion,

If I remember correctly you were very high on Eskenedereya last year, not Super Saver. Mo is far from a lock, we all know he has talent, but the word lock is extreme confidence. I Want Revenge, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all had KY Derby dreams that were not met. Do you have a backup horse in mind if Mo is not the unbeatable champion that you claim him to be?

Draynay,

I have watched the replay of the San Vicente many times and I can not see The Factor struggling at all. He is faster than your beloved Mo, accept it and keep and open mind for once. Why are Curchill, Saratoga, and Belmont the only race tracks that exist in your mind? Last year's B.C. Juvenile did not contain the competition that Mo will be faced with this year. Riveting Reason and Jaycito seem like the only two out of that race that will be competitive this year. When are you going to accept the fact that Mo is not the only colt with talent?

22 Feb 2011 11:26 AM
LAZMANNICK

Just a thought.  You never know how Mo is going to tun out but at least now Draynay has a backup.

22 Feb 2011 12:36 PM
tcc

Just a thought.  You never know how Mo is going to tun out but at least now Draynay has a backup.

LAZMANNICK 22 Feb 2011 12:36 PM

He will probably have 10 more horses as backup's. Plus he has Calvin B. as a backup if he is not riding one of his 10 backup horses.

That leaves a total as much as (11).

22 Feb 2011 2:19 PM
Draynay

The Factor is no Factor in any Triple Crown race so he is not worth talking about.  Dialed In beat nothing and Brethren won at Tampa against nothing but may be the 2nd best horse out there.  We have seen all the horses that will be in the Derby and none come close to Mo.  Brethren will get beat in the Derby and come back in the Belmont where I am sure he will be tough.  As long as Mo stays healthy he is your Triple Crown winner.

22 Feb 2011 3:44 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, you say The Factor isn't Triple Crown quality because he's been running in sprints. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't another Baffert trainee by the name of Silver Charm run exclusively in sprints in his first 4 starts with the 4th being the San Vincente? And didn't another Baffert trainee named Real Quiet run no further than 7 furlongs in his first 5 starts? Underestimate Baffert at your own risk, he's the best Triple Crown trainer in the nation, hands down.

22 Feb 2011 5:38 PM
Quiet American 55

I just have to weigh-in here on some of these comments.  Jason, I think you are right on with the R-Star comments.  That race has not held form in the past.  The new cycle and dates down there also make the LA Derby suspect for producing May 7 form.  Horses like Grindstone & Funny Cide used to LA Derby when it was a different date and distance.  The comments about Silver Charm, above.  I won on him.  He was a router and a grinder.  Baffert ran him in the distances he could in CA according to the timeline of that horse.  I believe stopping on him around the Del Mar meet that prior Summer.  Draynay, what's up with the need for the Grade 1 win, to win the Derby.  You displace about half or more than half of the last ten winners with that requirement.  Mo looks exceptional to me as well, but to project his form forward of a his Beyer in the JUV or any other 2 year old route for that matter, sometimes that just not come to be.  (I'm with you on him being really really good.  Making up the lengths 10 or 15 as you say, that happens regularly from year to year with the 2 year olds to 3 year olds.)  Since I'm throwing my hat into the ring here.  I have been locked on three and will follow them, hopefully with great enthusiasm (Sway Away, Elite Alex and Break Up The Game -- and i know BUTG still has to break his maiden and I know it's conservative trainer Shug, but...) Jason, as always, really good stuff in your blog.

22 Feb 2011 7:55 PM
LAZMANNICK

tcc

I forgot to mention Bind is the back up.  I'm waiting for Dray to burst on the scene and inform us about how great this horse is, as if no one heard of him until he tolds us.

22 Feb 2011 8:32 PM
Sunny Lee

War Pass (God rest his soul) is going to be in the news again this spring once Uncle Mo loses his KD preps.

22 Feb 2011 10:05 PM
jayjay

Draynay just likes to ride the more popular horse because he doesn't have to think about it.  He picked UM just like he touted RA at the beginning of last year then forgot about her mid year and jumped on QR mid to late last year.  And don't forget First Dude, he calls the horse a maiden winner until Jason picked him as his longshot for the Preakness, after the race, Draynay was all over the horse like FD was the 2nd coming of Ghostzapper, then later in the year, he went back to calling him a maiden wiiner LOL.  Has he talked about any of the 3 since ? No.  

I'm still wondering what the color of the sky is in his world, anyone know ?

23 Feb 2011 3:58 AM
jayjay

The Bid : March 12th is indeed just around the corner, but what's your point ?   What will that race "answer" ?  I'm curious as to why you think this next race will "silence" the folks (like me) who questions his "greatness" at this moment.  Dominating 2 yr olds does not translate to a great 3 yr old.  Don't do a Draynay with his QR HOTY stuff last year.  How about let's see him race as a 3 yr old first.  

BUT...if you can't wait until after he runs, then I'll bet you $100.00 that he doesn't win the Kentucky Derby.  It's free money that Jason won't take from me (I'm sure he'll mention his $100 again in response to this post lol), I'm sure you'lll be more than willing.  :)  I don't mind losing $100.00 to you if UM turns out to be a monster.   I just hope you don't run away if you lose...

23 Feb 2011 4:31 AM
Forbidden Apple

Draynay,

You better pray for The Factor to run awful in the Sunland Derby. If he wins that race I am guessing that Baffert will send him into the KY Derby. And if he enters the gate against Uncle Shmo, he will run Shmo into the ground down the backstretch. Shmo might have been a fast 2 year old, but The Factor is the fastest 3 y.o. horse on the Triple Crown trail.

Dialed In did defeat Mucho Macho Man who is much better than Mountain Town and Boys @ Tosconova. Dialed In is going to make you cry when he beats your superhorse/wanna be Triple Crown winner. Zito is clearly aiming for the FL Derby with Dialed In. After the Timely Useless race, Shmo better pack his bags and get out of town before the new sheriff finds him.

23 Feb 2011 10:36 AM
Mike Relva

JAYJAY

Your comments regarding Dray is exactly correct,he doesn't have enough to fill up his day.

23 Feb 2011 10:38 AM
Sunny Lee

No horse has to "make up" any number of lengths on Mo - they all go from the same starting gate.  

I do believe Mo WILL get the 10 furlongs though - in about 2:09.

23 Feb 2011 12:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

My mistake, Sway Away is not a maiden. Does anyone have a link to his maiden race at Pleasanton?

23 Feb 2011 1:30 PM
LAZMANNICK

jayjay

I might be wrong, but wasn't Draynay all over To Honor and Serve early last fall and knocking Uncle Mo?

23 Feb 2011 1:59 PM
tcc

LAZMANNICK;

Draynay all over To Honor and Serve ,also Boys at Tosconova and now it's Uncle Mo. Big Time!

Last year it Dublin, Don't Blame the Cat,Noble's Promise. At least those three.

23 Feb 2011 3:44 PM
Draynay

Geez. You are all such rookies.  The Factor is not a Derby horse get over it.  Have your Santa Anita Derby and watch the winner of that race get trounced again in the Derby.  Unreal.

23 Feb 2011 3:59 PM
CTG

KD Future bet not a good value wager...period.

At least that is my belief. Several factors influence my view:

2009 I had I want Revenge to WIN in KD Future Pool 1/2/3 and then come up empty upon Derby Day scratch.

2010 I have multiple exacta combo in KD 1/2/3 with Eskendreya on top of some solid contenders. Also have Rule on top of these same contenders...one of those was Super Saver. Rule scratched out a week ahead of derby; a few days later Eskendreya scratched.

2005 I have Giacomo to WIN in KD Future Pool 1/2/3 (26:1/25:1/50:1). Sure Giacomo wins derby but could've waited until derby day to wager and get 50 to 1.

Simply put KD Future wager does not get any of my $$$$ this year.

Risk to Reward is no value.

Excuse me in advance for my rambling. Good Luck for those that do wager.

CTG

23 Feb 2011 6:54 PM
The Bid

Came Home...Did he ever make it??...Harlan's Holiday is having His holiday @ stud...Brother Derek is NO Bo Derek...Pioneer of The Nile is enabling the people of Egypt in their transition...Just to name a few of the TRIED and just ain't got IT when WE post on the RIGHT coast!!! Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet are really the exceptions in the last 15-20 yrs. to do anything Relevant on the east coast before July!!!

Jay-Jay: I'm not going ANYwhere win or place!!! WHY would I bet you 1-19?????? I would take your bet only if you give me odds OR Mo v. your top 3!!! The point regarding Mar. 13 in The Writer...Mo debuts in dazzling fashion BUT...I hope no one will fill that race, because I can envision it now...MO Sizzles and beats NO ONE!!!! I want Him to HAVE to debut in Tampa so He can TROUNCE the beloved SNOT out of Brethren, and when He does, make people REALIZE what they have in-store come THIS Spring!!!Zito is quaking in his boots dodging THS...and He has to wait His turn 'till The Real Horse is full!!! Mo won't disappoint... He'll only make YOU want to watch HIM again and again and again...Just like HE did when He was 2yrs. old!!!

23 Feb 2011 10:32 PM
jayjay

Just like Jason, you're going off on the odds.  What's the deal with that ?  It's not like I'm making you work hard for this bet.  It's a straight bet and you win $100, without even worrying about the odds??  If he wins the Derby, you get $100, if he loses, you lose $100?  How complicated is that ?

You're touting this horse as a shoe in for the Derby, like he'll never get beaten, like he's a superhorse, and yet you wont' take my free $100 ??  Who cares what his odds will be in the Derby ?  Are you worried he will lose the Derby and you'll have to pay me $100 ?   If you're not sure that he'll win the Derby, just say so. :)

24 Feb 2011 1:28 PM
Jason Shandler

The Bid: Jayjay still doesnt get it. Not surprising since he didnt know how a football teaser works. The guy is just not a seasoned bettor. Let me clue you in Jayjay: The key to ALL bets are the ODDS one gets when placing a wager. Why in the world would someone take even-money odds from you when they can go to Twinspires.com and get 7-2 on the future book? It's not about ego dude, its about putting as much money in your pocket as you can. A lesson Im sure you learned well when I took your $100 last time :)

24 Feb 2011 1:37 PM
Footlick

C'mon Jason- we all know a football teaser is someone in the locker room to get the players excite before the game........

24 Feb 2011 8:21 PM
MonicaV

Draynay,

Why so sure the Santa Anita Derby winner will get trounced in the Derby?  As I recall, Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer in the Derby after winning the SA Derby.

25 Feb 2011 2:48 PM
jayjay

Jason : When it comes to being a seasoned bettor, the honor is all yours lol.  I consider myself a smart bettor, I don't keep track how "seasoned" a bettor is, bottom line, you still have to hit the winners and I have last year, quite more than you :)

If you really are a smart and seasoned bettor and you think UM is a lock for the derby, that no one can come close, a sure WIN, then why not take $100??  You're not risking anything, nothing at all since you already know that UM will win the Derby.

Here's the fact, not one of your three (Jason, The Bid and Draynay )would take the bet because not one of you really believe he's a lock.

You keep using the odds as an excuse because you know damn well that UM is not a lock, otherwise you'd take $100 without even thinking about it.  Do you get it now ?? Mr. "seasoned" bettor ?

07 Mar 2011 2:40 PM

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