All Eyes on Stay Thirsty, Dialed In

While next week's racing calendar includes three key Triple Crown preps including the season debut of Kentucky Derby favorite of Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer, this weekend features only Saturday's Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct, and to a lesser degree a Sunday allowance race at Gulfstream that will serve as Dailed In's two-turn debut.

The Gotham is being billed as a race with only two real Derby contenders--Stay Thirsty and Toby's Corner. The outcome of the race will ultimately decide if that is the indeed the case, but even if one of the other seven starters were to pull an upset I'm not sure how serious they would be taken.

By all accounts, Stay Thirsty is training like a monster in South Florida for Todd Pletcher. He is working step-for-step with Uncle Mo and is said to be an improved horse from last year when he was runner-up in the Hopeful and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. When handicapping the Gotham however, the questions becomes: Does he stand so far above this field that he is worth betting as a likely odds-on favorite despite coming off a layoff,  or do you try to beat him with a horse that might be in better form?

Stay Thirsty is the only Gotham runner without a start in 2011. Last week we saw a prime example of a superior horse being susceptible to two turns in his season debut in the Fountain of Youth when To Honor and Serve came up short, so it is certainly possible that Stay Thirsty needs a race. However, its probably pretty safe to assume that the Fountain of Youth featured a better field than the Gotham, and that is why I wont try to beat Stay Thirsty.

Stay Thirsty went wire-to-wire in his maiden win last summer at Saratoga and set the pace before finishing second to Boys At Tosconova in the Hopeful, but I don't see him have the lead here. There are two horses with decent speed on the inside, including The Fed Eased, a 7 1/4-length maiden winner at Aqueduct last who now breaks from the rail. I think Stay Thirsty, in the capable hands of Ramon Dominguez, will sit off of The Fed Eased and possible one or two others, including Norman Asbjornson. He should get a perfect set up and be good enough for these.

An upset is possible if The Fed Eased somehow gets loose on the lead and stretches his speed out for two turns, if Steve Asmussen trainee Dawly, a former claimer who looks to be improving, closes into an exceedingly fast pace, or if Toby's Corner takes a step forward. Graham Motion is cautiously optimistic about Toby's Corner, who ran a solid speed number when he pulled a minor upset in the Feb. 5 Whirlaway. I wrote about Toby's Corner in a previous blog as a horse that I was impressed with and may be a sleeper, but I cannot get past the feeling that they are all running for second behind Stay Thirsty.

One horse that I will mention as a potential exotics play is Starship Caesar. He earned his first win in a $25,000 claimer at Calder in January, but stepped up to score an impressive victory in a one-mile starter allowance last month at Gulfstream. His trainer, Bisnath Parboo, won at a 25% clip at Calder last year and new rider Eurico Da Silva has sprung an upset or two in his day. The colt has some decent speed and should sit a stalking trip to at least challenge for a piece at a big price.

As far as Dialed In goes, I'm not sure how much we will learn from his allowance race on Sunday, where he will face four horses (maybe), one of which is a Zito-trained horse that we can only assume was recruited to help fill the race. The goal is simple: Get a two-turn race into the horse before the Florida Derby. No matter what the result, it should only serve him well and give us an indication if he can handle a route of ground the same way he has sprinting. Either way, I won't form too much of an opinion about Dialed In until I see him in the Florida Derby, which by the way is shaping up to be the prep of the year with Dialed In, Soldat, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, and Sweet Ducky all possible to run.

For what it's worth, quick picks at Santa Anita:

Santa Anita Handicap: First Dude, Tweebster, Soul Candy

Santa Anita Oaks: Turbulent Descent, May Day Rose

Kilroe Mile: Jeranimo, Times Gone By, Caracortado

Good luck this weekend. Mike Repole will be back with another Uncle Mo blog on Wednesday.

366 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Billy's Empire

OK, so Uncle Mo is going into the Timely Writer, and everyone is giving his connections crap about the race, but Dialed In goes into an ALLOWANCE race and no one has a comment. Dialed in was too tired to come back after 4 weeks rest in the FOY, but now he is going to run this weekend, in an allowance?  Either way, with Soldat and Mo both stalking the pace of some California horse (likely), Jaycito and Dialed In better show some early speed or they may be running for third. Maybe 4th if the MONSTER MUCHO MACHO MAN keeps getting better and growing into that 17 hand June Foal frame.

04 Mar 2011 3:37 PM
Ted from LA

Stay Thirsty?  Ted from LA prefers to drink.  Caracortado - Times Gone By exacta.  Do you realize how many major Derby contenders have only 3 life-time races under their belts?  Do horses even wear belts?    If they do, do they try to match their shoes?

04 Mar 2011 3:49 PM
Billy's Empire

"Dude, where's my carrots?"

"Dunno Brah, but I gonna eat this candy for dinner!"

"Which Candy, the candy striper Twirling Candy, or your brotha from anotha motha, Soul Candy"

"Either one Dude, just don't be late. I hear Candy melts at 10F"

04 Mar 2011 4:19 PM
Taxman

Dialed In running in this allowance is a brilliant move by Zito and his owner. He just ran hard in the Holy Bull and won well. The last thing they wanted to do was give him a tough race in the FOY. Now they get a race to get him experience and then they can go after the Fla Derby and hopefully Kentucky. Much better than trying a quirky Tampa surface that their War Pass flopped on. Go Dialed In! Bring home that 40-1 Vegas future price...

04 Mar 2011 4:20 PM
Inquiry

They couldn't beat caracortado if he fell down in the stretch.

04 Mar 2011 4:25 PM
Oldie

Billy, I'm thinking mucho the same for MMM - just read Dean Reeves visited Eibar Coa in the hospital and gave him a check for the $18k he would have been paid to win the Risen Star on MMM.  Way cool.  Even if he doesn't grow into his size in time for the Derby, he certainly appears to have a promising future.

04 Mar 2011 5:17 PM
It aint easy being good

I am shocked that most think that twirling candy is not taht good he is the second coming of curlin. Twirling Candy cant be beat......He is going to crush in Dubia as well. He is the best horse on the planet by far!  I agree Mucho macho man is your KD winner if he gets a good post!

04 Mar 2011 5:26 PM
no mo mo

Billy's Empire must have gradutated from the draynay school of non-handicapping logic. I suppose Billy if Dialed In was the returning 2 yr old Eclipse Winner and had won multiple G1's last year one might question the logic of an allowance race. Since he's not and needs a two turn race before he tackles bigger and better in the Fla. Derby it makes sense to most who know something. unca Schmoe's been there and done that so the easy 1 mile race is questionable.

04 Mar 2011 5:44 PM
Betsy

I love, no, ADORE Stay Thirsty, but he's a hard favorite to take - coming off a layoff. I think his BC should be thrown out because I don't think Todd gave him a chance, running him off a 7 furlong race 2 months prior. He sure appears to be working well, but after the debacle with THAS, I admit I'm proceeding with caution

04 Mar 2011 5:47 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

What whiskey are they using for the mint julips this year? When I get mine I'm telling them to hold the mint and the julip. Three year olds should be a piece of cake for Dialed In after facing older this Sunday.

04 Mar 2011 6:16 PM
Forbidden Apple

Jason,

What happened to Jeranimo in the Sunshine Million turf? He was an underlay and ran poorly. I like this horse a lot, but he just never seems to string several good races together. I am leaning towards Fluke after his last race where he won off from a layoff in 1:33 3/5.

There is not much to say about Dialed In, I love this horse and think that the sky is the limit with him. His first two races were incredible with very fast finishes. This horse is crying out for a distance race.

04 Mar 2011 6:23 PM
Footlick

Billy-They didn't want the FOY because they wanted another week, and they wanted two turns, so they didn't want the timely Writer.  They probably would have had to go in the Timely Writer if they couldn't get a two turn in.  But they felt two turns was more important.  It doesn't matter to me where Uncle Mo starts his season, and it was nice of Gulfstream to change everything about the Timely Writer for him.  Neither is going to be much of a race but at least Dialed In will get the two turns they feel he needs.  Uncle Mo might as well have run in a mile allowance against older horses for what it is worth.  Neither will tell much unless one or the other just doesn't run well.

We will see about your prediction of Twirling Candy and the SA Handicap

04 Mar 2011 6:31 PM
SaratogaDreamin

stay thirsty is not 100% fit,... he might win being about 80% and if he does, he will be unbeatable in the next prep, probaby in Ak....i would bet against him at short odds tomorrow...

04 Mar 2011 6:36 PM
Ranagulzion

I think Toby's Corner tags Stay Thirsty at the wire in the Gotham.

04 Mar 2011 6:46 PM
Trebloc

Very cool move by MMM's owner!  The Kentucky Derby winner is running next week in the Tampa Derby. Winstar has so much confidence in Brethren that they are not even pointing CAL Nation to the Derby.  Dialed In should have run in the FOY, end of story.  Tobey's Corner in the Gotham.  I will play Game On Dude across the board in the Santa Anita.  Have a nice weekend.

04 Mar 2011 6:54 PM
AnneM

I Think that Stay Thirsty may be a bit short and Toby's Corner is a better bet for this race. However, down the road, Stay Thirsty is the better Derby horse.

04 Mar 2011 6:57 PM
tcc

As you mentioned Stay Thirsty here. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominquez this Saturday, he also has ridden J P's Gusto, Gourmet Dinner, Brethren, so he has 4 possible Derby horses to choose from. John Velazquez has been riding Uncle Mo,and To Honor And Serve. Julien Leparoux has been riding Dialed In and Rouge Romance. Martin Garcia has been riding Jaycito and The Factor. These jockey's will have some choice's to make come Derby time if all these horses make in the starting gate.

04 Mar 2011 6:58 PM
Pedigree Ann

It Ain't Easy wearing blinkers - if you think Twirling Candy is the best in the world, I invite you to watch Australian racing over the next few weekends. There you will see the unbeaten rocket ship Black Caviar and the world-class miler More Joyous, both, by the way, fillies who beat up on boys.

I won't even mention So You Think, the Aussie superstar who has been shipped to Ireland for a European campaign.

Twirling Candy, you will recall, was easily reeled by older horses in the Goodwood H; so far, he has only won against members of his own generation. Maybe he can beat this rather moderate group of older horses, but it is by no means assured.

04 Mar 2011 7:21 PM
brettzky99

There is a better chance that Angel Cordero Jr. will head the National Hockey League Player's Association, than John Velazquez riding To Honor and Serve in the derby (if he even starts)

04 Mar 2011 7:21 PM
SPLITS OF 12

Itainteasybeingood, I agree with you. Twirling Candy is the biggest monster in horseracing. I think we are going to see him break the track record this weekend. I agree with trainer John sadler when he says, he has the best horse in the country. He does.

04 Mar 2011 7:27 PM
Kim

SaratogaDreamin, I wasn't aware that there were any Derby preps in Alaska (AK).

04 Mar 2011 7:31 PM
WILD HORSES

Two words. DIALED IN! I love this horse, he may be something special. Uncle Mo is suspect to me. Questionable whats going on behind the scene with him. Also like Jaycito and Santiva. MMM has big grow up potential. No reason for The Factor to even show up Derby Day, sorry.

04 Mar 2011 7:36 PM
jon

Interesting that Uncle Mo's trainer wants to keep him at a mile, for next weekend and seems leery of a longer distance.  He has worked in company with Stay Thirsty, who is running in a decent race, has done well in workouts, so I keep thinking Stay Thirsty has improved over the winter.

I am wondering about whether Pletcher isn't as confident about Uncle Mo? Why the need to bypass the Tampa Bay Derby and run in the Timely Writer? Is he telegraphing that Mo may be better suited for shorter distances? Pletcher's being more aggressive with Stay Thirsty, who needs the earnings for the Derby, where Mo, doesn't, but Mo still needs some seasoning.

In any case, those who scoff at horses running few races before a major race like the Derby, consider Man O' War, who made his first start in the Preakness in 1920. Pletcher may want to crush the Timely Writer field and scare off the competition for the Wood, or make conspiracy theorists write off Mo, and then be sorry later.

I believe that Stay Thirsty will do fine, so we'll see tomorrow.

04 Mar 2011 8:01 PM
Kristen Ohler

Stay Thirsty has been keeping good company with Mo in their workouts clocking identical times together as these stablemates progress towards the Derby.  I know Stay Thirsty isn't Mo, but, we know Mo would mow this field down.  I think Stay Thirsty should do the same.  As a huge fan of Bernardini, I hope this colt brings home the victory.  I'm still a fan of THAS but can't have to many Bernardini's to root for.

04 Mar 2011 8:04 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Wanna hear your excuse tomorrow when TC wins. He's a lock.

04 Mar 2011 9:21 PM
Mike Relva

NO MO MO

I agree,Billy and Draynay are one in the same. You can bet the bank when Uncle Mo loses the Derby in a couple months they will pretend they were NEVER on him. lmao

04 Mar 2011 9:31 PM
Sue M

Unless one of these horses can step up, I don't see a TC winner. The Factor can win either of the first two, you have at least 5/6 that can win the Derby (Dialed In, Uncle Mo, Soldat, Brethren, Mucho Macho Man, TheF, etc.), but do any of them have the strength and versatility/maturity to win all three? I'd love to see a Tc winner, but I'm throwing in the towel on that these days. Surprise me!

04 Mar 2011 10:05 PM
Ted from LA

"Breeders’ Cup president and chief executive officer Greg Avioli has resigned to take a new position with a racing and gaming company, Breeders’ Cup announced March 4."

Ted from LA wants this job.  Can I count on any of you for a character reference?  I know Dr. D has my back, but on who else can I count?

04 Mar 2011 11:45 PM
Ted from LA

A blog or two ago some idiot started talking aobut movies.  Ted from LA was surprised that nobody mentioned "Let it Ride" as the greatest horseracing movie ever made.

04 Mar 2011 11:47 PM
Kristen Ohler

Stay Thirsty and Mo, stablemates, breeze together in the morning's in identicle times.  Mo runs this field down in the Gothem if he ran. I think Stay Thirsty beats this field.  I love the Bernardini's.  I still like THAS.  I hope this Bernardini is ready.

05 Mar 2011 12:13 AM
jayjay

Draynay's Billy : I thought you said you're a thoroughbred owner ??  It makes me wonder what your knowledge is about horse racing when you posts things like you did about Dialed In's race.  This whole website and DRF are all talking about the predicament that Zito and LaPenta were facing trying to find a race for Dialed In.  The horse wants to run and run long, maybe you should watch the Holy Bull again.  You then come on here and blog how come no ones complaining about it, and proceeded to compare that with UM's plan ?

Tell me, what do you think Todd's thinking is for running UM in the Timely Writer ?  What would they gain from the race ?  How will the Timely Writer prepare UM for a 10F race ?

05 Mar 2011 12:43 AM
Pedigree Shelly

        I've been very busy lately, so I have some catching up to do ! I missed you guys ! Anyways , why isn't Uncle Mo running in the Tampa Bay Derby ? It seemed like a very logical spot for him ! I'm a Bernardini fan also ,glad to see his date with Zen went well !! Stay Thirsty should win The Gotham but, I thought To Honor an Serve would win the Fountain of Youth , maybe he needed a race ? It should be another exciting weekend of racing :)

05 Mar 2011 12:59 AM
gary d

I agree w/ Trebioc & Saratoga Dreaming...Toby's Corner has steadily progressed by Rags or Beyers...his sire,Bellamy Road ran his career top in the Wood...Toby favoring AQU is hardly a surprise...odds-on for Thirsty would be a gift

05 Mar 2011 1:46 AM
Draynay

Stay Thirsty is much the best here and should win by 3 with ease.  Stay Thirsty is ready to fire.  7th race at Gulstream should be easy Casino Host should win with no trouble.

05 Mar 2011 1:58 AM
Matthew W

Twirling Candy is real good, but he's a great "bet against angle" horse--he gets longer distance while taking on more speed types--we do not know if he can relax for five furlongs or not vs more speed--my pick is Soul Candy, 2nd time GoGo/first time dirt/prepped and closed vs Caracortado/Usual Q T....boxing with Twirling/playing Soul Candy w/p/s "ca-ching!"....also agree that Caracortado has them over a barrell/will give boxcar longshot Aldadino another shot in 8th (mdn) race....good luck to all--would love to see Twirling Candy stomp'em/get into rarified aire...would also love to see Soul Candy roll on by and make my wallet fat!

05 Mar 2011 2:08 AM
Matthew W

Ted From L A the late great Peter Copek taught "Let It Ride" in his comedy appreciation class at Oregon State University...we called him professor not because of the classes he taught, but for his prodigious horse playing skills--he was such a character, so missed after all these years, whenever I see a "Pete" horse I play him--and I'm way ahead....

05 Mar 2011 2:19 AM
Kim

The Factor

05 Mar 2011 3:18 AM
GunBow

Here are stats concerning the success of Santa Anita Derby starters in Triple Crown races.

When I was growing up in SoCal, I remember Santa Anita Derby horses consistently winning Triple Crown races.  And the stats bear this out.

In the 17 years from 1985 to 2001, a Santa Anita Derby runner won a Triple Crown race in 11 of those years.  

85' Tank's Prospect-Preakness

86' Ferdinand- Derby

86' Snow Chief- Preakness

88' Winning Colors- Derby

89' Sunday Silence- Derby, Preakness

92' AP Indy- Belmont

94' Tabasco Cat- Preakness, Belmont

95' Timber Country- Preakness

97' Silver Charm- Derby, Preakness

98' Real Quiet- Derby, Preakness

99' Charismatic- Derby, Preakness

01' Point Given- Preakness, Belmont

For those not counting, that's 18 Triple Crown races won by a Santa Anita Derby runner in 17 years.  Santa Anita Derby horses won over one-third of all the Triple Crown races run during that period.

However, the stats since 2001 suggest that Triple Crown power has shifted away from Santa Anita(and it dovetails with me leaving SoCal in late 99'..just saying).

In the 9 years from 2002 to 2010, Santa Anita Derby runners won a Triple Crown race in only two of those years, for a total of just 2 races.

05' Giacomo- Derby

10' Lookin at Lucky- Preakness

From 2002-2004, no Santa Anita Derby runner won a Triple Crown race, and the same was true from 2006-2009.  

Those like Draynay claiming that California is a secondary circuit in terms of the Triple Crown preparation have some statistical backing, at least since 2002.  However, historically speaking this is not a long period.  Before that period, in the years from 85-01', California was amazingly productive, with the Santa Anita Derby producing an average of one Triple Crown win per year.

05 Mar 2011 3:49 AM
mickey 1957

please stop....with the mucho macho man horse,this horse is second rate,watch the holy bull,they left him in the dust,he come back at fair grounds,slower track ,a entire field of second rate horse's and win's,this horse won't hit the board in the derby.

05 Mar 2011 7:26 AM
sodapopkid

Ted from LA,  I think you would be a good president for BC.   I think Jason needs to put in a good word for you to.  Now, just who was the person that brought up the movies?  Hmmmmm, Shall we all guess?

05 Mar 2011 7:55 AM
AustinBnike

I like Dawly in the Gotham to pull off the upset. And Dialed In is my #1 right now. Here's my "Derby Dozen" going into this weekend excluding Uncle Mo:

1) Dialed In

2) Sway Away

3) THAS

4) Elite Alex

5) Brethren

6) Alternation

7) Astrology

8) Awesome Patriot

9) Bench Points

10) Rogue Romance

11) Wilkinson

12) Archarcharch

I'm not big on Soldat, Mucho Macho Man or Santiva for the Derby. Now don't get me wrong, all 3 are great horses. I just like others better in terms of their pedigrees and running style. The top 4 horses I listed are the ones that I'm very high on and think at least one of them will be a huge Derby contender come May 7th. I love the Afleet Alex boys, Sway Away and Elite Alex. I love their pedigrees and both should relish the Classic distances. Watch out for these 2 guys!!

05 Mar 2011 8:56 AM
trackjack

Twinspired will romp in the John Battaglia Memorial.

Twirling Candy to win the 'Big Cap.

A Candy /Dude ex box: Twirling Candy, Soul Candy, First Dude, Game On Dude.

Stay Thirsty, Toby's Corner will run 1,2 in the Gotham.

Dr. D:

I'm shocked. It's not whiskey, it's BOURBON!  Is there any other kind other than Woodford Reserve?

Ted from LA:

'Right On' about "Let It Ride".  Not only is it one of my all time best comedies, it is a great racing movie.  My wife tried to find a copy for sale on-line, was not successful.  If anyone gets a chance to see this do it, do it, do it.  Let It Ride.

Ted from LA #2:

I have your back to become the new CEO and President of the BC.  I can vouch that you are a character.  Just like the character Richard Dreyfuss plays in 'Let It Ride'.

I'm going to the Tampa Bay Derby next Saturday.  Anyone else be there?

05 Mar 2011 9:18 AM
tvnewsbadge

Ted from LA sez "A blog or two ago some idiot started talking aobut movies.  Ted from LA was surprised that nobody mentioned "Let it Ride" as the greatest horseracing movie ever made."

They didn't because it wasn't.

05 Mar 2011 10:08 AM
Pedigree Ann

Jon, in 1920 the Preakness a handicap for 3yos and a prep race for the major 3yo races in New York. No racing in Florida or California. New York and its classics were IT for major racing. No, the Kentucky Derby wasn't the biggest 3yo classic then - the Belmont was. Things change over time, including relative importance of races, not to mention distances; the Preakness was 9f when Man o' War won it.

05 Mar 2011 10:12 AM
Trebloc

Trackjack,

Have a blast at the Tampa Derby.  I made it to the Sam Davis, but I will be stuck in a hockey rink all next weekend.  

Uncle Mo is running in the Timely Write to avoid Brethren.  

I would never bet on a Sadler horse outside of CA.

05 Mar 2011 10:34 AM
Draynay

You know what they say Gunbow, figures don't lie but liars figure. Why don't you tell everyone how well the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has done in the Kentucky Derby for the last  20 YEARS.  Thud.

05 Mar 2011 10:55 AM
draynay

What good does the Timely do Uncle Mo?  What good did the 7 furlong Bay Shore and 1 mile Gotham do for Secretariat.  I guess he could of skipped the Bay Shore if he wanted to be fresher for the Wood but I think everything worked out ok for him in the end.  Let me remind you Seattle Slew came back as a 3 year old and ran in a 7 furlong allowance race before the Wood and things worked out ok for him too. Geez.

05 Mar 2011 11:11 AM
Forbidden Apple

Just look at the cover of the March 5 issue of the DRF, Rosario was sitting like a statue on Twirling Candy. This horse ran a relaxed 1:46 2/5 while in a hand ride, simply amazing.

JayJay,

Another blogger forcefully stated that the Timely Writer had 36 nominations. But the blogger failed to mention that 13 of the nominees are trained by Pletcher.

Gunbow,

Don't listen to the likes of Draynay, he is always discriminating against CA horses. After his superhorse Dublin turned into a flop, he was all over Lookin At Lucky last year. He is a simple minded person who loves to eat chalk. You did not include War Emblem on your list of CA horses who won a Triple Crown race. Even though this horse shipped around to many different race tracks, he trained in Ca and I have always considered him a Cali horse.

05 Mar 2011 11:21 AM
Ted from LA

Right on, trackjack.  Thank you for you vocal support.  It brought a tear to my eye knowing a complete stranger like you is willing to vouch for Ted from LA for this position.  If I get the job, and you come visit me at Breeders' Cup headquarters, I'll be sure to give you a free Ted from LA bobblehead.  I have cashed in all my gold to put on Shankopotomous to win today at Gulfstream.

05 Mar 2011 11:24 AM
McGuane

As usual, everyone is on board with the favored high profile horse in the Gotham stay thirsty. If you took the time to watch his prior races its apparent that Tobys Corner wins going away by 3 plus lengths. Pletchers one of the great trainers but if you are a horseman then you know Motion is bringing this colt along in a perfect albeit under the radar manner. I'll see you at the ticket window at Aqueduct when I'm cashing in!

05 Mar 2011 11:33 AM
Rachel

How can anyone disparage or not like a horse who's 6 for 7 in the bigs from 7-9? Why would anyone want to "stomp" such a nice racehorse who lays his body down the best he can every race? ♥

jayjay: you'll have to go ask why most of the TC winning trainers why they started back 3 year-old campaign (after strong 2 year-old seasons) with a shorter race...♥

DR D: you make me laugh, keep it up, you're very witty. ☺

05 Mar 2011 11:37 AM
Vic

I doubt Stay Thirsty will be the odds-on favorite at post time.  Most serious handicappers realize he's a play-against.  He's won one lifetime start (a 6 furlong mdn), been off for 90+ days and was a flop in his only two-turn start.  

Billy's Empire, you really should learn to read the pp's or at least pedigreequery since you purport to be a T-bred owner.  Soul Candy's sire is Birdonthewire so he's not Twirling Candy's "brotha from anotha motha".

05 Mar 2011 12:12 PM
Inquiry

Dialed in tomorrow will have tiger blood pumping through his veins, because hes all about WINNING....Is it possible we could get $10 on a stone cold double caracortado with twirling candy???/

05 Mar 2011 12:16 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

trackjack

  I thought it was Early Times in 2006.

05 Mar 2011 12:19 PM
Jean in Chicago

Ted from LA:  I agree with trackjack that you certainly are a character and would add much to the BC.  However, I'll wait to see if you meet up with us at the Derby before I give you a reference.

05 Mar 2011 12:26 PM
Betsy

One thing I don't get about Stay Thirsty's connections is why they insisted that he be on the same schedule as Uncle Mo. He could have run at Gulfstream before this race - he'd be in much better shape.  They've done some weird things with this horse - running him in the BC off a 2 month layoff, not running him until now - and yet expecting him to make the Derby AND be a contender? I love the colt for sure, but they're asking a lot of him.

05 Mar 2011 12:30 PM
LAZMANNICK

If Stay Thirsty isn't the lowest priced three year old in the east so far in any kind of a prep, I'll be amazed.  He should be that dominant against this field.

The other thing is, he's been training very well with Uncle Mo.  Perhaps his performance will enlighten us a little more on what to expect from Mo, though I don't think that there is anything to be concerned about.  I just want to see Mo on the track.

05 Mar 2011 12:41 PM
Ted from LA

Ted from LA had the wrong date on the Shankopotamous race.  As luck would have it, he raced yesterday and got third. Dr. D, I hope you bet him to show like I told you to.

05 Mar 2011 1:17 PM
Ann Maree

I'm a big fan of Dialed In, and I don't mind telling you why: he's a thrill to watch, if it turns out he's a closer like Zenyatta and continues to lollygag around in the rear until time to rev up his jets, then great, because with his shadow roll, I can see "flashes of Zenyatta" flying by the front runners across the finish line and into the winner's circle.  He was just playing with the field in his first two races, which, of course were shorter and we need to see if he can do the 2 turns. He looked to have plenty left in his first two! The announcer saying "How did Dialed In win" was just music to my ears, because "you know who" could elicit comments like that.  I visit Dialed In's Facebook page (it is strange talking to a horse!) and suggested he might give himself a little less to do in the upcoming races!  I mean, 15 lengths is just too Zenyatta-esque!  He seemed excited to be put in Zenyatta's company, and I told him to think of it this way:  he only has 17 more to go to match her record! Would love to see him try! That's why I'm pulling for Dialed In.  I miss the Queen!

05 Mar 2011 1:57 PM
Mike Relva

JAYJAY

Have you noticed just how similar Billy and Draynay are? Your point to Billy is a good one.

05 Mar 2011 2:39 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

If you think that TC is a lock, I think that FD has the key (LOL).

Mickey 1957,

Your analysis of Mucho Macho Man is infantile Bro.  This colt has huge upside:

1) He's a large framed late foal with great scope for improvement

2) The Holy Bull Stakes was his first start off the lay off therefore improvement in his second start (the Risen Star) was a no brainer

3) He prompted the pace in the Holy Bull against a strongest field of 3YO colts assembled so far this year

...and you say he has no shot in the Derby? Think again friend

05 Mar 2011 3:01 PM
merlinmerry

The movie "Let It Ride' is listed by a number os sellers on eBay.  It is a double dvd with some Travolta movie called "Lucky Numbers." The average price is $9.

05 Mar 2011 3:45 PM
jayjay

Mike Relva : Small correction on your 9:31 PM post last night.  Draynay and Billy are one the same, Billy just likes to ride Draynay's back and protect him and defend him :)

Ted From LA : I too, would support you for your bid on the CEO position.  I'm looking forward to watching the BC races without anyone calling the race live but instead, we hear the titanic theme song or that Whitney Houston song as the background music for the live racing.  I get teary eyed just thinking about it...you, you had us at "hello".

05 Mar 2011 3:51 PM
Mike Relva

Since Dray is on Stay Thirsty I'm jumping off I think Tobys Corner will win.

05 Mar 2011 5:10 PM
Betsy

Stay Thirsty won! Nice performance - I know the time was slow, but I think that's a function of the fractions. I think he'll move up a lot off of this win.

05 Mar 2011 5:41 PM
LAZMANNICK

Dray……when Slew won his Derby against 12 other horses, four of them did not win a race that year leading up to the Derby and three others had only a single win.  Other than Seattle Slew, it was one of the weakest Derby fields for those times.  Secretariat ran in the Bay Shore (1.23.1) and the Gotham (1.33.2) before the Wood, not just in a single (written for him) non-descript race like the Timely Writer and then the Wood.

05 Mar 2011 6:02 PM
Trebloc

Nice win for Stay Thirsty.  Toby's Corner, thanks for playing "On the Derby Trail".    

05 Mar 2011 6:13 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I gonna say what you NEVER admit to being ever. Was wrong today regarding ST. You had that one.

05 Mar 2011 7:32 PM
Tim

You fools don't understand thoroughbred racing at all. The reason Todd had Stay Thirsty in in a drive trying to keep up with Uncle Mo during their workouts is to get him fit enough to win a grade 3 for the graded earnings. He won but looked absolutely terrible running in an all out drive from he 3 furlong pole to the mile pole before the rest of the allowance field stopped in the final sixteenth. Talk about a waist of a half million bucks. Uncle Mo is ten lengths better than avery 3 year old without getting out of second gear.

05 Mar 2011 7:47 PM
Jason Shandler

Tim: Was it a "waist" of a half million or a "waste." Be careful when calling someone a fool.

BTW, not a bad buy from where I stand. He's already earned $300k. Not sure what your business background is but I think Mike has done Ok so far.

05 Mar 2011 7:55 PM
2:24

To Dray's credit he also had Casino Host.  Short price but still a ticket cashed.  Well done Dray.

Despite the loss Scarface is a fun horse to watch and root for (especially with a dam named Mons Venus - Tampa residents will understand).

Good win for Stay Thirsty.

Ted from LA - I support your Breeder's Cup candidacy.

05 Mar 2011 7:55 PM
2:24

Tim - I guess we are all lucky to have you on this blog to enlighten us.  As such an astute judge of horse flesh, please let us know how many graded stakes winners you own, regardless of their price.

05 Mar 2011 8:00 PM
mickey 1957

well,then TIM....take the bet ,I offered over on haskins,dis or dat blog,and also stop thinking you know it all about horse racing,when in fact I don't remember much,good advice to anyone,except to degrade,people...if your REAL LUCKY,I might bump into one day at keeneland or oaklawn,you can't miss me 6'4 about 230 solid rock.

05 Mar 2011 8:16 PM
mickey 1957

mucho macho man will not hit the board in the derby ...thats a fact.

05 Mar 2011 8:20 PM
inquiry

Twirling candy best horse in training come on now, I was cooped into believing he could get a 1 1/4 ......this is exactly what im talking about with the derby.. I don't care if you post a 150 speed figure if u can't get the ddistance IT DOESN'T MATTER!!!!!!!!!!

05 Mar 2011 8:22 PM
2:24

Wow on the Big Cap.  Think the stewards made the right decision.  Twirling Candy was the horse that initially struck Setsuko and then Game on Dude.  In my opinion, Twirling Candy caused all the pinballing.

05 Mar 2011 8:35 PM
Trebloc

Chantel Rocks!!  

05 Mar 2011 8:36 PM
Mike Relva

TIM

So, everyone is a "fool" on here,but you right?  ST did what he had to do today,considering he hadn't run this year. As for a waste of a half million,that's too early to say. Maybe you can brush up on your spelling in the near future!

05 Mar 2011 8:44 PM
Ranagulzion

Tim,

You should really apologize for that "fool" remark. It was totally unnecessary. Your point would be well made without being so abrassive. That Stay Thirsty was by no means fully cranked up is clear but he ran promisingly well nonetheless. He may be Todd Pleatcher's third ranked Derby contender behind Uncle mo and Brethren but he's legit and should improve off the Gotham effort.  Toby's Corner is too slow and lacking in class at this stage.

05 Mar 2011 8:55 PM
Karen in Texas

Congratulations to Stay Thirsty--hope he moves forward off his race. Caracortado is becoming so exciting to watch even in defeat! What a jostling match in the Big 'Cap! At least all the horses involved stayed on their feet. I was surprised at the win by Game On Dude and at the "booing" by the crowd, but Chantal S. survived a tough race and created a niche for herself in horseracing history. Reminded me of Donna Barton driving hard all the way to the wire on Hennessey in the 1995 BC Juvenile. (Although he finished second.) Great racing today!                          

05 Mar 2011 9:15 PM
Pedigree Shelly

      Congrats to Stay Thirsty and Co. for his excellent win in The Gotham !! Thumbs down to the TVG crowd for downing his win as though he came in last in a 10,000 claimer !! :( They made this talented son of Bernardini out to look inept after winning a Derby prep ! A sore loser maybe ? That to me is not proper race analysis ! I think that maybe this talented colt's thirst may be quenched the first Saturday in May !!:)

05 Mar 2011 9:16 PM
MikeM

Tobys Corner got an education today. I look for him to improve off of that race. Not sure if he's ready for the Derby as he ran a little green. Can't wait to see his next race.

05 Mar 2011 9:29 PM
draynay

I ate the chalk on Casino Host and I ate the chalk on Stay Thirsty.  I love winning.  Stay Thirsty had a terrible break but despite the layoff he looked good coming home when it really counted to win by 3.

He now has enough money for the Derby so he can go anywhere they want to go with him.  Stay tuned for more winners.

05 Mar 2011 9:51 PM
Draynay

I guess I don't have to hear about Twirling Candy anymore.  Uncle Mo is the boss of all horses at 3 and all older horses.  Racing starts and ends with UM.

05 Mar 2011 9:52 PM
Billy's Empire

Mike just give up dude! You call dray the jinx, yet you have yet to pick a winner this year. Pretty sad.

Vic, it was  a play on words man. I know quite well who their daddy's are, but I was just referencing their names ending in candy, and used that term cause the brother had soul, damn y'all need to lighten up. Btw that was an easy 216$ on game on dude.

Hay jay jays kids.  Not questioning zito Just the double standards. Sorry you are too dim to see that

05 Mar 2011 9:55 PM
derbylock

Stay Thirsty's run reminds me a lot of last years Gotham stakes with everyone getting amped up about Awesome Act and we all know how that turned out. The "BIG" colt runs tomorrow and will establish himself as the real one to beat in the Derby. No Question!

05 Mar 2011 10:28 PM
Ted from LA

Thank you for all the kudos and laudations.  With your support, I think Ted from LA, much like Shankopatomous yesterday, is a lock for the Breeders' Cup job.  For those of you supporting Ted from LA, my first move as CEO will be to hand deliver Ted from LA bobbleheads to each and every one of you. Did anyone besides Ted from LA notice that little love connection between Rachel and board chairman Dr. D?  Schwing!  I actually blushed when I read the post and that smiley face threw me over the top.  Jean from Chi-town, you will see me on Derby Day if you wear a "I Heart Ted from LA" button or hat fixture (3rd floor clubhouse or outside Gate 17) that day.  Ted from LA will hand deliver mint juleps to all said button or hat wearers.  I'm king of the world.  You had me at hello.  Any other worst movie lines in history?  Jean from Chicago, have you ever been to The Turf Room in Aurora?

It turns out Mrs. Ted from LA isn't againt my gambling all these years, she's against my losing.

05 Mar 2011 10:39 PM
Mike Relva

Ok,had it wrong today on T. Candy among others.

05 Mar 2011 11:18 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike Relva

You didn't have it wrong today on Twirling Candy.  Horses don't run too well when they get bounced around like a pin ball.  He's still a top horse and he'll be heard from often.  He was also giving the four in front of him between 7 and 8 pounds.  Game on Dude looks like he might be ready to roll.  Good start to the year after dropping out of sight last June, another that was too ambitious early at three when not racing at two.  Setsuko is also an improving sort and the third place horse, Quindici Man closed his last quarter in 23.62 seconds.  I wonder what all the First Dude fans have to say after he ran up the track.  First Dude reminds me of many of the handicap horses currently in the east……really over rated.  Cali Racing is a lot better than what many on here think.  

05 Mar 2011 11:53 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ted from LA

  I talked to the BC Board but they wanted to know your last name. I said, "Come on, how many Ted's could there be in LA. Get a grip." They said they'd give me a call. Then I went back after reading the latest posts and told them I decided to support Rachel instead and they moved her to the top of the list without a last name. I tried pal but they seem to have their minds made up.

06 Mar 2011 12:16 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Karen in Texas

 Yeah except I had the Setsuko-Quindici Man exacta that would have paid over $900. No offense to Chantal or Baffert but I was hoping for the DQ. I did like my show payoff for Setsuko though. Love those whacky show pools on huge false favorites. Lesson learned for Sadler I hope-Don't brag that you're the best in the world until after the race. Twirling has a shot in the BC mile though. I'm hoping this moves Setsuko forward. He definitely is a 10f force. Same with Game On Dude. Those two should be in The Classic. Both are legit 10f horses. Nice time. I love under 2, even on a fast track, it's always impressive. That was some major bumping so luckily they all survived.

06 Mar 2011 12:28 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

I think Tim meant what he said- "waist" is the word that makes sense. Mike Repole's money belt around his waste to carry all the loot he made today. The "fool" part makes sense too. He was looking in the mirror doing his Taxi Driver imitation- "You talkin to me, you must be talkin to me. I don't see anybody else here. You talkin' to me? Fool. Next time bet it on the winner. Now what am I going to do. You talkin' to me?" Poor guy bet the farm on Toby's Corner then had to face himself in the mirror. What a shame. That was a feeble attempt to save face by tossing Uncle Mo's name in there at the end. I don't think it's going to work.

06 Mar 2011 12:40 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

That is hilarious. Chantal said that she never heard anyone boo her before "not even in New York." 2-1 vote. I almost got it. One more vote !!!

06 Mar 2011 12:46 AM
Jon

the stewards did not comment on the part just before turning into the stretch, "Game on Dude" shifted from the 2 lane to about the 3-1/2 lane & joel had to try and move a bit out wards to avoid him taking SetsukO down thats when the clipping hppened & that was not "Candy's" fault & the lame excuse by Baffert was Candy was running out of gas.....COME ON BOB..HE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MAKE HIS MOVE.

Hats off to "Dude"& Setsuko for running a good race, but, "CANDY'was really bothered, check the replay just before the completion of the turn.

06 Mar 2011 12:57 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Game On Dude is the one that initially veered out causing Twirling to bump into Setsuko the first time before the pinball game started. That is why he should have been DQ'd. Game On started it all to begin with. I wonder if Espinoza will be fined for calling the stewards blind? Or maybe they'll just go see the optometrist. Two of them. One of them got it right. DQ to 5th. I'm biased but it's clear who started it. The other two were running straight until Game On veered out.

06 Mar 2011 1:00 AM
jayjay

draynay : For you to even compare Secretariat or Seattle Slew to UM is just hilarioius.   I guess if you really believe UM is another coming of Secretariat or Seattle Slew then go ahead and bet the farm.  LOL.

Like I said, let's see him run in his lone prep race and see where he's at.  If he demolishes a talented field in the Wood (if we'll even see any talented horse run in it), I'll still try to beat him in the Derby lol.  If he beats me, that's fine, I'll root for him to win the TC.  Until then, my money's on a few horses not named Uncle Mo for the Derby.   He will have to be a monster to win the Derby off of one prep race.  The Timely is not a prep race, it's a public workout.

06 Mar 2011 2:03 AM
Matthew W

Per usual,Draynay gets it wrong--Big Cap comes AFTER the Derby, it's "how many Derby winners have won the Big Cap", boobie! Not many, the Big Cap one of the toughest races in history of the sport--today was tough! Had Soul Candy, across the board, was hioping for the dq--thought they should have come down, but realize its the Big Cap, and am fine with that--thought Soul Candy was gonna reel them in but he flattened....but that's what 1 1/4 does to ya--Twirling Candy doesn't look like a world beater right now, eh? That's because he couldn't relax for five furlongs/couldn't deal with the extra speed--like I said, a good "play against"--only my guy didn't pay me--I don't know what Draynay was thinking when he dissed the Big Cap--one tough sonuva race, and today was no exception!

06 Mar 2011 2:14 AM
Matthew W

Also was perplexed with Caracortado--no doubting his class, but I thought he hung right at the end.....was awestruck by Wilburn, in his debut/also had him to win and in my pick four--real nice, real fast....

06 Mar 2011 2:17 AM
GunBow

Stay Thirsty did what he needed to do to win, and deserves credit for that.  For a first step on the trail, it was certainly productive, and one would have to think he will be better for that next step.  However, he will need to be better because the horse that ran second, Norman Asbjornson, had a career top Beyer of just 71.

The performance of the day was turned in by Apriority in Gulfstream's 8th.  Before today, Apriority had finished 2nd by a head in the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Santa Anita, chasing an insane 20 and 4 and 42 and 3 pace before hitting the wire alonside winner Amazombie in 107 and 1.

Well, coming back across country today, Apriority stalked a 43 and change half, passed the 6 furlong mark in 107 and 4, and finished up 6.5 furlongs in 1:14.47, just 3/100ths of a second off the track record, over a track that was  not playing crazy fast.  And he won by over 4.

Apriority couldn't break his maiden out in Cali on synthetic, but since being moved to dirt he has won 4 of 5, and he came into today's race with two staright 103 Beyers.  I'm expecting something huge for his effort today.

Could Fawkes have the two best sprinters in the country?

06 Mar 2011 2:18 AM
kcj

Stay Thirsty didn't look too impressive to me. He won, but somebody had to. I don't think any of the horses that finished behind him will make it to the derby.

06 Mar 2011 3:40 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Chantal veered out two or three paths initially around the turn causing Twirling to bump into Setsuko. The stewards totally ignored that initial veering that caused the first bump and based their decision on what happened after that when Twirling came back in after hitting Setsuko the first time. He became the pinball when Chantal veered out. That is why she should have been disqualified. You can't turn someone into a pinball then blame the pinball. It's pinball 101. New eyeglasses are definitely in order ASAP. "You don't see the big E !!! And you have your glasses on !!!! You should have come in for new glases twenty years ago !!!!"

06 Mar 2011 4:01 AM
Norman Fan

Maybe now Norman Asbjornson will get some respect.  He is a down right nice colt and I consider him the sleeper on the Derby Trail.  With 2 wins and a 2nd in the Gotham in 3 starts going long, whats not to like?  I also believe he would of smoked Toby's Corner in the Whirlaway if the state vet wouldn't of scratched him after a MINOR gate issue.  Still pieved over that LOL.

06 Mar 2011 4:23 AM
GunBow

Out at Santa Anita, the 3 gr.1 races were certainly competitive.  They rarely just hand out gr.1s.

Once again, as I suspected, there was no coronation for Twirling Candy in the Big Cap.  The tougher competition, larger field, and extra eighth of a mile proved too tough, and he didn't do himself any favors by being rank throughout most of the race.  However, I have been warning that Twirling Candy's mind, which almost cost him a dq in the Del Mar Derby, was a potential weakness and that I wouldn't be surprised if he came unglued.

So, the Big Cap didn't have a superstar or "best horse in the country", but it did produce some excellent theatre.  I do believe Twirling Candy, rubber legged, initiated the bumping, first with Setsuko, and then against Game on Dude.  Then, it appeared Game on Dude, knocked on his right, over-compensated by pushing too hard back that way, bumping Twirling Candy who then bumped Setsuko.  It didn't help Game on Dude's case that Chantal was whipping him left handed when he was "readjusting" into Twirling Candy.

In the end, I didn't envy the stewards; it was a tough decision.  During the deliberations, I almost felt that there really wasn't a "right" decision, that whichever side came out on the wrong end would have a legit complaint.  

Game on Dude might not be a superstar, but he is a quality horse and his win in the Big Cap should not be undervalued.  This was a rugged 10 furlong race with a solid early pace, quality internal fractions, and a decent closing quarter which could have been even quicker without the bumping.  Given how few opportunities there are now for older males in gr.1 10 furlong races(the Jockey Club Gold Cup is now the only gr.1 race for older males East of the Mississippi discounting the BC Classic), Game on Dude is one of the few older horses with a gr.1 at the classic distance under his belt.

In addition to being proven at a classic distance, one has to like the tactical speed Game on Dude displayed in the Big Cap' as well as his toughness in the stretch; not only did he deal with the bumping, but he was able to come again to nail Setsuko after being passed.  Clearly, Baffert likes this horse, having run him in the Belmont Stakes in only the third race since he had been given him, and then running in the Big Cap with only an allowance race since the Belmont.  I see no reason why this horse cannot be a major factor in the handicap ranks.

So, Setsuko finished 2nd.  I have to admit, I thought Setsuko was a sucker's bet, but he ran well.  The bumping was entirely not his fault, so one can easily claim he got the worst of the result.  I was surprised but quite impressed with the tactical speed Setsuko demonstrated.  Rather than have him come from the clouds, Mandella realized that if Setsuko was kept closer to the pace, his stamina would compensate, and in a distance slugfest that stamina might just come out on top.  Setsuko still must show that he can win one of these big races, and one wonders if 9 furlongs is too short, but his new found early speed makes him a horse to recognize in the handicap ranks.

I also didn't see Quindici Man finishing a fast closing 3rd.  To his credit, Quindici Man seems like an entirely different horse on dirt, having run in the money in 9 of 10 starts on dirt, and he clearly likes a distance of ground.  I'm not sold that he can repeat this effort, and he will likely allows be dependent on pace, but he's no longer an instant toss for me.

Soul Candy, the late runner I did like, rallied moderately for 4th; he was simply too far back on this track.  Twirling Candy tired to be a very disappointing 5th, beaten just over 5 lengths.  First Dude, who was engulfed on the far turn, managed, as always, to hang around and went on to clunk up 6th, beaten 6.5 lengths in an another disappointing effort.  Maybe three works wasn't enough for Baffert to get things turned around.  

The 2 other gr.1 races, the Kilroe and SA Oaks, were also thrilling affairs won in photos.  The 3 best horses dominated the Kilroe, with Fluke, the beneficiary of a great ride from Bejarano, nosing out Caracortado, with Jeranimo a close 3rd.  All 3 of these horses are quality turf milers.  

In the Oaks, the classy and in-form pair of Turbulent Descent and Zazu renewed their rivalry with Turbulent Descent narrowly avenging her loss in the Las Virgenes.  I'm not sure how far either of these fillies wants to go, but both are quality runners with a definite touch of class.  Look for the other gr.1 winner in the field, AZ Warrior, to be better with this race under her belt.

Finally, props to Unzip Me, the winner of the $75k Clocker's Corner.  Unzip Me has now won 9 of her last 11 starts, with her only two losses coming against males(both times 3rd, including in the BC Turf Sprint).  Thus, against her own sex, Unzip Me has now won 9 consecutive races.  

06 Mar 2011 5:31 AM
Rachel

Ted, Ted, I would never leave you outta da luv connection...here's some love, sunshine and smiles for you, too ♥ ☼ ☺

Mike Revla: this is a toss out for TC, I just hope he checks out OK today...he took some pretty awkward steps sideways. He'll get the distance, his daddy owned 10 panels.

06 Mar 2011 7:17 AM
Coldfacts

Billy's Empire,

“If the MONSTER MUCHO MACHO MAN keeps getting better and growing into that 17 hand June foal frame”

Which monster are you talking about? Are you referring to the one that sat in the 49, 1:13 pace of the Risen Star? To you and all the MMM supporter, this colt is several lengths behind the top colts and has no chance of winning the derby. He is very young and big. His frame is a liability at this point as there is just not enough time for him to get strong enough to defeat the top class colts. There is no doubt he has ability but so do other at hat are older and just as slow. This colt will not survive the 22, 46, 1:10, 1:36 pace of the derby not when he is winning races associated with pedestrian paces. I hope his connection bypass as he might get hurt trying to stay with the big boys

06 Mar 2011 7:34 AM
Footlick

I thought Stay Thirsty looked good in his first race back.  The only winning race I had that I bet was the Honey Fox, and there weren't any big surprises in the first three, so not an amazing handicapping feat-lol.  Had Setsuko in the Big 'Cap.  Oh well.  Even though Twirling Candy was suspect going 10 furlongs, you can't tell by this race whether he can or can't.  But since it wasn't important for QR to go 10 furlongs, why should it be important for Twirling Candy?  He seems to be a superior 7-9 furlong horse and may be another horse who can easily get 9 furlongs but falters at 10.  No disgrace in that.  As far as First Dude, not the best race.  At least Twirling Candy had the excuse of being a ping pong ball.

06 Mar 2011 9:53 AM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

I just love how you dealt with Tim's misdemeanour (LOL).  I knew that I could count on you Bro.  Keep everyone here on their best behaviour.  Learning how to spell should surely stop waste from the waist from flowing through the brain unto the blog (LOL). Nice work my brethren.

Sorry THAS and Twirling Candy didn't work out for you ...time to get on the Uncle Mo bandwagon ...and don't let your peave with Todd Pletcher stop you from picking a Derby winner this year.  Stay away from the sons of Bernardini and AP Indy my friend.

06 Mar 2011 10:02 AM
2:24

For any questioning Stay Thirsty's win, I don't know why it is being questioned so much.  Granted, I am blind in one eye, but I saw a horse pretty much run a perfect race to win fairly easily off a 4 month layoff and only 5 works.

And Tim, to buttress Jason's point, Mike Repole has already made money with Stay Thirsty given the winnings plus the stallion prospect of a graded stakes winning horse with his breeding.  If I had an extra 500k lying around, I'd have no problem giving it to Mr. Repole and his team to invest in horse racing or other ventures.

06 Mar 2011 10:17 AM
anniedixie65

After looking at Dialed In's race he should not have the slightest problem winning. But winning this isn't going to establish anything. Look at the other horses past performances. Equestrio has the best chance of beating him IMO, but I don't see this race as something that will establish him as the one to beat in the derby. An allowance opt. is by far a race that doesn't establish a race horse.

06 Mar 2011 11:41 AM
Dani

What a bunch of party poopers those TVG guys can be. 'Thirsty' ran a darn good race and I'm betting he will take something away from this race and we will be seeing bigger and better things from him next time out.

06 Mar 2011 12:03 PM
the illum

Well stay thirsty did win and I posted that it was very plausible even at 80% fitness level.He was able to win by 3 lengths or more because of the quality of the field he faced,I would venture to say none of the other horses will make it in the starting gate for the derby.As far as stay thirsty Im not sure if he was undertrained(80%) or he just was not focused enough, Dominguez had to use the whip repeatedly to get him to pass the overmatched horses in the stretch.

06 Mar 2011 12:36 PM
mz

So first my 'net connection goes down.  Then I pulled something in my back trying to bend down to feed the (ungrateful) cats.  Then the rain turns into snow.  

Then, when I finally get back on, what do I find?

Tim calling me a fool.

Draynay, back in full force.  (Seems like the Triple Crown always brings him BAAACCCCK)

Dr. Drunkinbum losing all the money he would have made if GameOnDude had been taken down, meaning there will be $900 less for Mint Julips this year.

Finally (and worst): now Ted is telling me and Jean from Chicago that we now have to make up a button or hat pin in order to get some free drinks.  Jeeze, what happened to just holding up a sign?  I promised sparkles and everything.

and oh yeah, Blue Laser finished last.

I gotta keep hoping for Dialled In, Soldat and Bowman's Causeway but I am now pinning my major, hailmarypass on one of the fillies -- Kathmanblu, Turbulent Descent, Zazu (gotta put in a plug for a "Z"), etc.

The only good thing I found between being off and being on: at least I saw Pluck had a work!

06 Mar 2011 12:52 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

After seeing Stay Thirsty win The Gotham I have to believe that his workmate Uncle Mo has a shot to win the Timely Writer.

06 Mar 2011 12:54 PM
LAZMANNICK

Jon

I’m not taking anything away from the top three.  They ran courageously and were impressive.  However, I've seen the head-on maybe 15 or 20 times.  I also thought that even though Game on Dude came three wide into the stretch he did move slightly to his right just as they straightened out intimidating Twirling Candy and causing that one to shift into Setsuko (normal intimidation).  I also didn't think that TC shifted more than a foot from his original path when he shifted back towards Game on Dude.  What really amazed me is that Chantelle hit her horse hard twice left handed just as they were coming together and they were actually leaning into each other when she hit him hard left again.  That to me was the most outrageous part of the entire incident and should have been cause for her horse to come down.  A fundamental decision that I believe the Stewarts got wrong.  Without the dumping TC would have been no worse than third.  $173K went down the drain in the show pool alone.  

06 Mar 2011 12:57 PM
LAZMANNICK

GunBow

I don't totally agree with your analysis of the Big Cap incident.  Twirling Candy made what looked like a winning move mid way in the turn then Setsuko made what looked like an even better one.  However, the winner, game on Dude, just might be a star in waiting.  After not racing at two and being thrown into the fire with six races by June of his three year old year, he was either injured or put away until the S/A meet and now looks like he has a chance to be a bona-fide star.  Setsuko, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up last year, who was only racing his third time on dirt after being away for 8 months, and the third place horse, Quindici Man closed that final quarter in 23.62.  Not bad.  If First Dude's performance is any measure of the quality of the handicap set in the east, the west just might dominate the division this year.

06 Mar 2011 1:14 PM
LAZMANNICK

Stay Thirsty raced like a professional, perhaps Uncle Mo's version of Angle Light who saved the betters in Secretariat's Wood.  He looks like he belongs in the Derby for sure.

My thumbs down to Gulfstream for writing the Timely Writer in an attempt to steer Mo away from Tampa.  I don’t think that Mo’s presence is going to make that much of a difference in Gulstream’s on track crowd when he debuts, but it sure would have been good for racing and Tampa Downs to have Mo in the G3 Tampa Derby.  Excluding his horses and breeding operation, our friend Frank Stronach has done a lot to hurt racing in my opinion, much more than he has done to help it.

06 Mar 2011 1:21 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

Thanks! I haven't given up on THAS just yet,time will tell especially his next race.

06 Mar 2011 1:21 PM
Karen in Texas

Dr. D---Sorry about your exacta. As I said, though, I was amazed that none of the horses went down; and that Chantal and Espinoza kept their wits enough to continue and finish strongly. I agree with GunBow that there almost wasn't a "right" decision for the stewards to make. All this drama adds to the lore of the Big 'Cap, really.

Wilburn made a nice debut for the Asmussen team earlier on the card. It will be interesting to see where he runs next.

06 Mar 2011 1:25 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

What's "sad" is some of the misquided statements you make you actually believe them.

06 Mar 2011 1:28 PM
Mike Relva

LAZ

Good comments,I really believe TC will be heard from  for certain. He was bounced around,no doubt.

06 Mar 2011 1:31 PM
Jason Shandler

Not much excuse for Twirling Candy. He had nothing left at the top of the stretch like Baffert said. He's not a horse that settles easily and when he faces better company and bigger fields will struggle. Hope Sadler learned his lesson about proclaiming his horse the best in the country in February. Step outside of Cali John and take him to NY this summer. Meanwhile, Baffert stayed quiet and did what he always does. Win.

06 Mar 2011 1:40 PM
Coldfacts

2:24,

“Mike Repole has already made money with Stay Thirsty given the winnings plus the stallion prospect of a graded stakes winning horse with his breeding. has already made money with Stay Thirsty given the winnings plus the stallion prospect of a graded stakes winning horse with his breeding”

I do not understand the above as neither the math nor the performance justify same. Firstly, Mr. Repole has not recovered Stay Thirsty’s the purchase price of $500K as yet. He has only made about $300K in purses. Add the keep and care and vet bills to the purchase price and he is far from being in a surplus position with this colt. Stay Thirsty has proven to be an average colt to date so there will not be scores of farms lining up for him as a stallion. His 1:44.78 clocking in the Gotham is the slowest in the last 5YRS. Would a farm be more interest in Stay Thirsty with his 1:44.78 or I want Revenge with 1:42.65?

06 Mar 2011 1:48 PM
Jason Shandler

Coldfact: Really? The horse has made $300k through five starts and you are questioning whether it was a good buy? Really? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Mike will make his money back on Stay Thirsty. Just a hunch.

I guess that's why some people are good at business and others...well.

06 Mar 2011 1:55 PM
Rachel

I thought Nacho Saint had a tough time...

Did you see how fast Quindici Man man was closing the gap and how strong his gallop out was?

No way am I getting of TC's bandwagon (absolutely not taking away from GameOD or Setsuko)...to me, TC seems to be a bit of a knucklehead about rating, etc (but how would I know, I'm in New Hampshire not on the track in person)...too bad, he's a really nice horse...maybe he'll grow up and be all that he is instead of staying in the shorter races. You can't argue with your rider at 10.

06 Mar 2011 1:58 PM
LAZMANNICK

Stay Thirsty's time yesterday, though a little slow, is IMO legite.  All week long the sprint races at Aqueduct have been legit, but the two turn races have been on average 6 - 8 seconds off the track record.  Stay Thirsty's Gotham time, a little over 3 seconds off, was the most legitimate route time all week.

06 Mar 2011 2:02 PM
jayjay

Very nice win by Stay Thirsty.  The kind of race I like to see in a young horse, pushed but not all out.  I think with his rabbit getting ready to run next weekend, he might actually hit the board in the Derby, I've always like him as Mike Repole's top derby candidate.  We'll see how the rabbit's workout goes.  Need to have him fit and FAST so that Stay Thirsty have a target.

I had Setsuko on that race, picked him for the late double.  I was pretty pissed that the 11 stayed on top but after the last race, it didn't matter as I didn't have the 6 anyway.  Other than that, I'm happy for Chantal, she rode GameOnDude perfectly outside.  I guess we found out who the real "Dude" is.  FD turned out looking like he was used as a rabbit, I think they should just shorten him and try for the BC Mile.  The horse is not going to carry that speed any farther than 1M.  

Ranagulzion : I guess TC gave First Dude a fake key to the lock.  Bottom line is Twirling Candy BEAT First Dude, no question about it.  The so-called tough "eastern" horse just doesn't have anything left after a mile.   I think most east coast horses would perform the same way if they ever find the guts to run on the west coast.  I just don't think east coast horses are capable of travelling past their van rides. :)

06 Mar 2011 2:04 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, all this means is that Twirling Candy will go off at better odds next time I bet him. Enjoy betting Uncle Mo at 1-10 in the Timely Writer. TC was absolutely robbed in that race. After being severely bumped not once, but twice by the winner and lost all his momentum. That combined with being bounced around throughout the first portion of the race caused his defeat. By the way, how did that $100 to win and place on First Dude work out for you? Seems to me that he got his clock cleaned by those California horses you were dismissing and only managed to stay a neck ahead of Tweebster who you kept telling everyone was a joke. TC will bounce back from this and it wouldn't surprise me if he wins the Dubai World Cup. Let's wait until Uncle Mo beats horses who are older than 2 before we mention his name in the same sentence as Twirling Candy.

06 Mar 2011 2:04 PM
Ian Tapp

LOL!!!! @Coldfacts

Now I can't help but imagine this scenario:

Mike Repole: Hi, I've got a well-bred GSW Bernardini colt here. He's a half brother to 2 SW, and he was 2nd in the G1 Hopeful.

Stud farm owner: No thanks, his Gotham time was 2.13 seconds slower than the race 2 years prior. Therefore, your average colt is not welcome here. Good luck recouping your investment, you'll need it.

06 Mar 2011 2:11 PM
Footlick

Even with dirt the Cal horses still have to ship East to prove themselves.  Funny.  No dirt horses are "crossing the Rockies" to run on dirt out West, even with the purse for the Big Cap.  Guess the Rockies and 10 furlongs are just too much for those East Coast horses.  I suspect that at 7-9 furlongs Twirling Candy would hold his own with any older East Coast horse.  At least Gourmet Dinner's people are considering running in the SA Derby.  In fact, didn't they already ship out West for a race as a 2 yr old?  or am I mistaken.  Anyway, kudos to them.  As has been said before, airplanes fly both ways.  Cal dirt is waiting for anyone out East who wants to take the challenge.  Remember, before it was the synthetic track is what was keeping horses from shipping.  Now what is the reason?  If you guys really think that the West Coast horses are so inferior, what is stopping these powerhouse East Coast horses from shipping?

06 Mar 2011 2:46 PM
2:24

Coldfacts:  I usually appreciate your analysis.  However, your Stay Thirsty comment responding to my comment above was not well thought out.  If Stay Thirsty never runs again, Mike Repole more than doubles his investment.  You don't think Repole's already receiving calls from the Darley folks wanting to buy and stand this colt?  C'mon man.

06 Mar 2011 2:48 PM
Billy's Empire

Dialed in loses at 1-5. Better luck next out for him against his own age. Still had to be disappointing for everyone that claimed he is a monster.

06 Mar 2011 2:57 PM
Draynot

Jason I am with you!  First Dude gets a big class drop here because he is up against California horses.  I think Baffert lets the horse run and dare others to keep up with him.  First Dude 100 to win/place.

Draynay 04 Mar 2011 12:00 AM

LMAO draynay what happened? First Dude finished 6th BEHIND 5 CALIFORNIA HORSES?

06 Mar 2011 2:59 PM
Paula Higgins

I think Twirling Candy was bounced around like a ping pong ball. However, he just gave up after that, which was disappointing. Not ready to give up on him yet though. Would like to see how he does with his next race.

I am not sure how some of you can knock Uncle Mo when he hasn't even raced yet. Granted, the race they have him primed for should be a walk in the park for him, or as someone said above, a glorified workout, but let's see how he does. Stay Thirsty did great and is training great.

06 Mar 2011 3:11 PM
Trebloc

Did Zito get in the win photo?  That's gotta hurt.  The Derby is a two horse race:  Uncle Mo and Brethren.  Stay Thirsty to the FL Derby and Brethren to the ARK Derby.  

06 Mar 2011 3:23 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

How many horses did Baffert have against TC,sixty? TC was bounced around bigtime is this race. No doubt this horse has talent,just was comprised yesterday. He will be back.

06 Mar 2011 3:31 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

If Mo were to finish second,like Dialed In today you and  others would spin it. FYI this horse has only run three times in his career so second wasn't a deal breaker.

06 Mar 2011 3:35 PM
anniedixie65

Anyone can say what they want about Stay Thirsty, but he won yesterday, and Dialed In didn't win today and lost to my Pick Equestrio.

06 Mar 2011 3:54 PM
Ted from LA

So let me get this straight.  Rachel winks her eye at Dr. D and he abandons his boy Ted from LA in a flash.  mz, the sign will suffice.  Dr. D, my last name is Angeles.

06 Mar 2011 4:05 PM
Derbylock

No excuses for Dialed In today. Sat behind inferior horses at a slow pace and ran like a short horse that only had one workout the last three weeks. Looking at the glass half full...closed the last 3 furlongs in 36.9 and will get some serious fractions to run at in the Derby. Not getting off this wagon!

06 Mar 2011 4:37 PM
sherpa

Footlick - Yes, Gourmet Dinner traveled to CA for the CashCall Futurity 12/18. Finished 4th behind Comma to the Top.

Your 2:46 PM comment: spot on!

06 Mar 2011 4:44 PM
the illum

As far as east vs west in the kderby hunt,as of today east coast is stocked with a lot more possibles than west coast hands down.The east coast trainers dont need to send their TC prospects farther west than oaklawn park.The hard track at sa should not be similar to the surface they will race on at churchill.The last two years baffert had the most ACCOMPLISHED horses heading into the derby PON and LAL and they ran on an aw track then.

06 Mar 2011 5:20 PM
Coldfacts

2:24

“If Stay Thirsty never runs again, Mike Repole more than doubles his investment”

I will not dispute you assessment of the thoughtfulness of my response to your comments. Mike Repole purchased ST for $500K in March 2010. He has incurred keep & care, training and vet bills for one year. I do not know Mr. Pletcher’s daily rate but let’s estimate his additional costs since purchase is conservative $30,000. His input cost to date is therefore 530K. Stay Thirsty has earned about $300K to date. Mike Repole would therefore be in a deficit position of $230K if Stay Thirsty never runs again. I am not sure what mathematical computation you used to arrive at the above result. However, unless I have missed additional some earning, Stay Thirsty has not covered all the costs incurred since his acquisition.

His potential to land his owner a lucrative stallion deal right now is average at best. He is a Glll winner in a very slow time so there is really nothing to advertise to breeders. If the colt is retired today it would be bad for Mr. Repole as no farm would be calling in this down market for Glll winner.

Name me one Darley stallion in recent years that was not a Gl winner? They are not going to call about Benardini stallion prospect when they have one that is a G1 winner that finished ahead of Stay Thirsty in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

06 Mar 2011 5:28 PM
Paula Higgins

ITA Mike Relva, this was not a deal breaker at all for Dialed In. Second was o.k.

Footlick well said. You are so right, planes do fly both ways.

06 Mar 2011 5:34 PM
Mike Relva

ANNIEDIXIE65

I had Stay Thirsty and changed cause of Dray picking him. That was my mistake. Trust me,just cause Dialed In lost today isn't the end of the world. He got something out of the race to move forward.

06 Mar 2011 5:39 PM
Tiznowbaby

Jason, really? You're gonna say "not much excuse for Twirling Candy"? Wow. IMO that horse wasn't done until after the ping pong incident.

Dialed In closed well into slow fractions. Can't wait to see the big Mo in action.

The Factor heading to the Rebel.

06 Mar 2011 5:47 PM
Jason Shandler

Can someone tell me why Zito didnt go the winner's circle after the Dialed In race today?

06 Mar 2011 5:54 PM
Jason Shandler

Tiznowbaby: Baffert said it too. He wasnt going to hit the board even had he not been touched. Overrated.

06 Mar 2011 6:01 PM
2:24

Coldfacts - isn't Rockport Harbor a Darley stallion?

06 Mar 2011 6:04 PM
2:24

Coldfacts - isn't Desert Party a Darley Stallion?

06 Mar 2011 6:11 PM
Trebloc

Zito didn't make it to the winners circle today, because DI's owner wasn't finished ripping him a new one.  HA!  

06 Mar 2011 6:12 PM
Karen in Texas

The guys on HRTV said they thought Zito would "stay with La Penta" rather than go to the winner's circle since Dialed In did not win(?) The assistant was expected to be with the winner.

06 Mar 2011 6:18 PM
2:24

I don't care.  I'm not jumping off the Dialed In bandwagon.  I'm also on the Uncle Mo, Sway Away, Alternation and Brethren bandwagons.

06 Mar 2011 6:21 PM
LAZMANNICK

What would you expect Baffertt to say.  I didn't see Twirling Candy slowing down.  I saw Game on Dude not quiting and Setsuko driving hard, but TC wasn't slowing down.  There isn't a horse racing that would go on after being bounced left and right like TC did.  We'll see the next race.

06 Mar 2011 6:24 PM
Jason Shandler

If Im the owner of the winner I expect the Zito to be in the winner's circle.

As for as Twirling Candy, I doubt we will find out anything next race. He'll be facing the same California-based horses all year until November I suspect. Sure he will win a couple, but we already learned what we needed to know.

06 Mar 2011 6:30 PM
stevebiscuit

Great source Jason! Sure ask the winner if he felt it was fair for him to win! As Lazmannick said, I didn't see him slow down. You guys don't seem to understand how costly it is in a race to lose momentum. It happens to the best Both Quality Road and Musket Man cost Zenyatta momentum twice, which cost her a few lengths and the win. Same thing happened to Twirling Candy. This loss will only make Twirling Candy a better bet. Have fun betting on 1-10 Uncle Mo!

06 Mar 2011 6:46 PM
Paula Higgins

So Dialed In comes in second (and a good/respectable second I may add) and "we already learned what we need to know?" I don't think so. One loss tells us very little, particularly a close one. I know another horse who according to some people "faced the same horses all year" only to wipe the mat with the competition during the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic and then ran a race for the ages in 2010 in the Breeders Cup Classic.

06 Mar 2011 6:48 PM
StonesRoy

"After seeing Stay Thirsty win The Gotham I have to believe that his workmate Uncle Mo has a shot to win the Timely Writer."

Now THAT'S funny!  Thanks for the chuckle Dr D!

Still waiting for a horse to blow me away...guess it's still too early for these precocious youngsters.

Archarcharch gets the "photogenic award" from me...what a beautiful horse.

06 Mar 2011 7:03 PM
the illum

Dialed in connected to the wrong number 2 instead of 1,but he will definitely be dialed in to 305 for his next barring unforseen circumstances by all involved.

06 Mar 2011 7:03 PM
Jason Shandler

Steve: Setsuko and Game on Dude were bumped just as hard but ran on fine. TC was done.

Paula: I was talking about TC, not Dialed In. But I will say, Dialed In was disappointing, as I suspected. Its a lot different closing into two turns as it is one.

06 Mar 2011 7:12 PM
the illum

Youve got to be kidding if repole makes any inquires about breeding value they were made about UM not ST.

06 Mar 2011 7:15 PM
Jason Shandler

Why are you worried about Mike's money and investments? He could buy 100 Stay Thirstys and never win a race, yet still wouldnt feel it. Like and dislike the horses you want to, but picking apart a billionaire owner for his business decisions are laughable and completely worthless statements.

06 Mar 2011 7:22 PM
Tiznowbaby

Jason, really? You didn't seem to put much stock into it when Baffert said Zen was the best horse on the planet, but now he knows all, sees all, and is the go-to source because he agrees with you? Heh.

06 Mar 2011 7:24 PM
Jason Shandler

Tiznowbaby: Stop. She lost. Its been four months, get over it.

By the way, Misremembered is an absolute beast and the best older horse in the country. Likes Churchill too. If he stays healthy and they dont take him to Dubai (please dont do it Bob), say hello to your 2011 BC Classic winner.

06 Mar 2011 7:28 PM
Footlick

3 yr olds running against older this early in the year is always a crapshoot.  Dialed In needed to go two turns.  He didn't win.  I expect the usual suspects to drop him from their lists.  Hopefully his odds will go up.

06 Mar 2011 7:30 PM
Footlick

Tiznowbaby- good comment @ 7:24pm.  No trainer's or jockey's comment is ever the truth unless it agrees with the commentator's beliefs.  If it doesn't, then they say you can't ever believe a trainer or jockey and they are the worst judge of talent.

06 Mar 2011 7:34 PM
Ted from LA

Misremembered after a year layoff?  Holy Cow!  Azeri's daughter looks the part too.

06 Mar 2011 7:37 PM
the illum

If that comment about worrying about repoles finances was posted for me,I could care less about his finances. I just posted in response to a previous post about  ST's breeding prospects which would be illogical for him to even consider ST when he has UM as a multimillion dollar stallion prospect.

06 Mar 2011 7:38 PM
skyfire

I agree with Dr. D and Lazmannick posts...I think that Twirling Candy is the most talented horse.  He was rank early -- I think he is the best older horse, but he needs to settle early.  Not a push button horse.

06 Mar 2011 7:40 PM
Tiznowbaby

Jason, your blog of course, but I'm gonna call you on silly statements, and you picking and choosing when Baffert is a sage is kind of laughable. You're throwing out straw man arguments when you say I'm complaining about Zen; I'm not --- I'm just pointing out your inconsistencies.

06 Mar 2011 7:46 PM
Jason Shandler

Tiznowbaby: TC was not going to win that race even if he wasnt touched. Baffert and me are not the only ones that could see that. As for Baffert, I dont agree with everything he says, but he is one of the best trainers on the planet. I will take his opinions over that of most people when it comes to judging races. The stewards made the right decision in that race despite the crying from the HRTV commentators. I will repeat: Twirling Candy was not going to win that race even with the perfect trip. He's not as good as he was made out to be by his trainer and Baffert isnt the only one that knew it.

06 Mar 2011 7:53 PM
LAZMANNICK

Stevebscuit

Yep.  TC getting bumped twice as many times and on each side, not just one side, didn't cost him any momentum.  I guess Looking at Lucky had the same excuse in the Derby last year.  Getting knocked all over didn't cause him to slow down at all.

06 Mar 2011 7:58 PM
LAZMANNICK

I don't take any stock in a horse not being able to close on the front runner on the main track at Gulfstream.  Some days it happens, but in most it doesn't.  In fact in looking at the results charts for today's races, only one horse on dirt closed from way back.  The other winners either wired the field or were a close 2nd or 3rd throughout.  Dialed In had to run closer to a pedestrian pace, was hemmed in by Wilson's horse for too long (Chantelle's summer running mate at Woodbine), but did look like he was striding nicely at the end.

06 Mar 2011 8:03 PM
skyfire

Today, at this point, Stay Thirsty may be the best 3 yr. old stallion prospect in the country!!!  Better pedigree than Uncle Mo, top two year old form, stakes winner at 3 -- by Bernardini, good female family, beautiful horse -- who else, today, is better bred with the form?  He is a complete package -- 2, 3 yr old form, pedigree, conformation -- a Lotto ticket.  

06 Mar 2011 8:04 PM
Ted from LA

Kids, kids.  Go to your rooms.

06 Mar 2011 8:07 PM
Johnny

How watered down and sad this sport has gotten after watching a  made up race for a horse..

Yeah he got experiance,is that what the BETTING public wants to wager on??

Next week another made up race to a owner that says he is a fan first.

If these races are just practice races for a real race than the owner/trainer should state so to the betting public..

"Dear BETTERS my horse is not trying to win the race just to gain some experience for his next race".

In my eyes it is no different than the BCLC when Pletcher's horse was not right..

Its about respecting the BETTING public.  

Please what a bunch of crap this sport is becoming for one race..

SAD SAD..

Now of to the breeding barn with you,your value will never be worth more than it is now..

06 Mar 2011 8:13 PM
Zen's Auntie

Ok not like Im at the track all the time but I did get to Gulfstream today to have some fun and see Dialed In.   I can tell you he looked good. nicely composed in saddling and in the hectic walk around.  

He broke fine and ran well with excellent position to set him up to close - but the weather WAS a factor it was thundering and ominous the heavens opened up just as the race began - the track went from pretty fast to sloppy in less than 5 minutes. Not complete slop before the end of the race but it was POURING by the finish and a significant factor.

DI Looked put off by the huge drops at the top of the stretch and only really got in the groove and learned to deal with it about 100 yards before the wire where he seemed to go "OH ok I can run in this."  

As far as zito not making the circle it was becoming a deluge and his hair was in jeopardy.  seriously I think he moved in to see what had happened (lets face it it was an upset) and if DI was ok.  He seemed fine but who knows and in my opinion it was a real good learning experince.  Perhaps it will give the colt depth.  

06 Mar 2011 8:17 PM
Pedigree Shelly

         Ranagulzion , How can you say to people , STAY AWAY from the AP Indy's and the Bernardini's for the Classics !!!!!!!

         AP Indy is one of the few classic and stamina sources left in this country !!

         Bernardini , Classic winner 3yr old Champion , Leading first crop sire , sire of TWO Gr I winners in his first crop !What are you thinking of ! ?????

         I like MMM,but his pedigree says no , but I wont down him ! Smarty Jones had a miler's pedigree ! I truly hope nobody uses  the Anti- Indy betting theory at the races :( :(  Thanks Dani for noticing the TVG crowds' analysis of The Gotham !

06 Mar 2011 8:50 PM
longwaytomay

Jason,

I have to disagree. I don't see how you can say that TC was done at the top of the stretch. It looked to me like there was going to be a real horse race untill the rodeo started. In my mind TC took the worst of it and it cost him any chance to win the race. I will say that Game on Dude impressed the hell out of me the way he fought back and won the race though.

06 Mar 2011 8:52 PM
jayjay

Tiznowbaby : You're spot on with your 7:24pm and 7:46pm.  It's nice to see someone else questions his objectivity :)

Jason : That's a pretty bold statement about Misremembered and we're not even halfway through March.  

It's funny because Twirling Candy won his previous race in a much more impressive fashion in a graded stakes race IMO and he won on hand but I guess Misremembered's race is 100 times tougher so he MUST be a beast.  What do I know though, I lack racing knowledge LOL.

I wish everyone would jump off Dialed In's wagon.  For those that never liked him, I'm happy that he didn't convert them.  He'll run at a great price in the Derby. :)

06 Mar 2011 8:54 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

I will make a wager w/ you prior to the Classic,cause I don't see Misremembered winning.Also,label TC "overrated" if you must. He's very talented,yesterday wasn't the end,not even close. Also,the past two Classic's you are exactly the same as myself...500

06 Mar 2011 9:02 PM
Jason Shandler

Yeah Mike, the only difference is that I took your $, you didnt take mine.

Misremembered would have won the SA Handicap by three yesterday and Baffert knows it.

Jayjay: I said the same thing about Blame last year BEFORE he won the Stephen Foster. Some of us have the ability to see things in horses that others dont. I wish I could teach you this skill, but sadly, its something that is tough to pass on--especially to someone of your horse IQ. Actually, I thought you would like Misrembered, he's a very pretty horse. Isnt that the sort of thing that you look for when you hit your multiple pick 6s?

06 Mar 2011 9:11 PM
Forbidden Apple

Anyone that says Twirling Candy had nothing left at the top of the stretch is simple minded. Not even Secretariat could have ran on after being sandwiched between two large colts. Are you folks blind or do you just hate Twirling Candy and other CA horses? And to say that the horse can not get 1 1/4 miles is also wrong. The truth is that Chantal Sutherland was repeatedly using the left handed whip and could not control Game On Dude. Game On Dude should have been moved down to second place. Rosario had no business choking back on Twirling Candy down the backstretch. And he had the jump on Setsuko, but failed to move sooner.

Tim,

You are a fool for saying that Uncle Mo is 10 lengths better than any other 3 year old colt. But you are right about Stay Thirsty, he will not be a factor in the KY Derby.

Dialed In is still on track for his goal of the FL Derby. Anyone who doubts his talents after a meaningless allowance race is going to pay dearly in the FL Derby. Were they expecting a fast pace in a 5 horse field? He did not win, but he gained experience and will dominate in his next start.

06 Mar 2011 9:17 PM
Alexaso

stonesroy,

I agree with you completely about Archarcharch....I was awestruck when I saw him in the post parade.  I really like his breeding too, but I feel we need to see a significant improvement in his next race before I start to get excited.

06 Mar 2011 9:18 PM
Tiznowbaby

And again Jason, since you didn't post my other comment, weren't you the one that could "see" that Quality Road would get a mile and a quarter no problem? Except he never did.

06 Mar 2011 9:18 PM
jayjay

Johnny : No one is putting a gun to your head to bet the favorites.  It's actually better because it's pretty obvious that it's a prep race, so it's your chance to beat a heavy favorite.  It has nothing to do with not respecting the betting public, the trainer and owner don't care if you bet on their horse or not.  They have the Derby in mind and they will race their horse in races where they feel will take them to the Derby.

Zen's Auntie : Thanks for the on track great analysis of the race, I guess some folks who claim to know about horse racing should watch the race and pay attention to the little details :)  Not me though, I'm just a bettin' fool.

06 Mar 2011 9:22 PM
AnneM

For the Derby I would not look at an Ap Indy line colt.

I am looking at Soldat (Danzig line) and Brethren (Forty Niner line). Much as I love Uncle Mo, I am not convinced that the Indian Charlie's can go a mile and 1/4

06 Mar 2011 9:24 PM
Rush

Yeah, Shandler. You see things in horses others don't. Like last year at this time you were saying Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra were going to be the top horses for the Breeders Cup Classic. LOL

06 Mar 2011 9:51 PM
sodapopkid

Some of us have the ability to see things in horses that others dont. I wish I could teach you this skill, but sadly, its something that is tough to pass on--especially to someone of your horse IQ.   JS

RE: Jason,  So, I bet with your 'abilities' you already knew the outcome of the HOTY and that Zenyatta was going to WIN it. right?   Dang it, You're a good one Jason...lol

06 Mar 2011 9:55 PM
stevebiscuit

Jason, it makes sense that you'd remind everyone of your BCC pick. Judging by your recent handicapping, picking winners seems to be a rarity for you, at least winners that aren't heavy favorites. Please share your "skill" with us!

06 Mar 2011 9:59 PM
draynay

Maybe some of you will listen one day.  I SAID DIALED IN wan't that good but did you listen?  The horse lost allowance race what do you need to get hit with a rock? Next Saturday the Derby winner runs.  Rookies.

06 Mar 2011 10:04 PM
Paula Higgins

Oops, sorry Jason. Reading comprehension 101 LOL. I get what you are saying about TC. ITA he would not have won whether he got bumped or not in this race. But I think you are being too hard on him. It's only one race.

06 Mar 2011 10:18 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

Good point,you won't believe it but Jan 17 totally made up for the fact I lost $200 to you. I like to call it poetic justice.

06 Mar 2011 10:21 PM
the illum

I have to disagree completely if both UM and ST retired right now who would comand a higher price for breeding rights,a G3 winner 2ND place G1 or a horse than broke his maiden by over 10 at Saratoga in his second race won easily over an overmatched field at a mile at belmont in G1 and then humbled all the horses that faced him in G1 breeders cup.You can try to convince others about his family line but ST is nowhere near the stallion prospect that MO is at the moment.BY the way his gotham win was over a field in which none of them will be in the starting gate at the derby and dominguez had to repeatedly use the whip to get him to pass horses in the stretch,to me Archarcharch beat a much better field in his last graded stakes.

06 Mar 2011 10:22 PM
Ranagulzion

Pedigree Shelly,

I've posted so much about AP Indy's failure as a Derby-winner-producing sire and classic sire that it has become tiresome to repeat.  Do me a favour and check for his progeny amongst the classic winners since about 1996 and you may understand my position.  Also bear in mind that he got started as a high profile stallion and has covered large numbers of the best mares every year of his career.  I've posited that he throws mostly late bloomers that are unable to mature in time for the Kentucky Derby therefore his chances of siring a Derby winner approximates to zero. Furthermore the Bold Ruler line has been missing from among the list of Kentucky Derby winners since Swale (son of Seattle Slew) won in 1984, largely due to the fact that Seattle Slew and his son AP Indy were the ones "appointed/anointed" by the breeders to carry forward the Bold Ruler line, which was a big mistake in my view, given the success of other branches of Bold Ruler in the classics like What A Pleasure (Foolish Pleasure), Irish Castle (Bold Forbes), Bold Bidder (Spectacular Bid & Cannonade) etc.  

In light of the above I've also taken a position that Bernardini will not be a first crop Derby-winner-producing sire.  Thusly (as my good friend Zarvona would say) I've advised my fellow bloggers and Derby prognosticators to "stay away" from the offspring of those two stallions in spotting this year's Derby winner.

Bernardini has gotten off to the kind of promising start with a similar high profile status as his sire AP Indy and he might be the one to end the drought for Bold Ruler but I dont see him doing it in his first crop.  His best runners so far, To Honour and Serve, Stay Thirsty, Break Up The Game all have a mountain to climb called Uncle Mo plus a few other peaks and valleys to negotiate like Dialed-In, Mucho Macho Man, Sweet Ducky and Santiva.

You may notice that among AP Indy's sons at stud I've made some exceptions, namely Pulpit and Mineshaft by including Sweet Ducky and Dialed-In among my fancies.  I consider those two as well as Stephen Got Even capable of overcoming the AP Indy post-derby-maturity syndrome in some of their offspring.  I trust that you understand my position.  Now let's watch my theory play out all over again on the Triple Crown Trail.  Thats the fun of it all ...best wishes to all and malice towards none.

06 Mar 2011 10:28 PM
Jason Shandler

I picked Blame to win BC Classic Rush. Its in print and on video. Never said anything about RA winning that race. Try again.

Steve and Sodapop: No matter how much you cry, the outcome will never change. Blame still beat her. Its ok, your souvenir tickets are still in your scrapbook.

06 Mar 2011 10:35 PM
Ranagulzion

It seems to me that Misremembered, NOT Twirling Candy is the best horse in California and has already demonstrated the potential to be the best in America.  I'm sure that Bob Baffert will be a very sporting trainer and send him to compete outside of his home state, perhaps starting in Dubai.  If this horse goes there he's the likely winner, having shown prowess on synthetics in the past.

Candy Ride is quite a stallion and being fron the Raise a Native line, is almost certain to throw a derby winner in the future.

06 Mar 2011 10:36 PM
Jason Shandler

Good point Ranag: Baffert will ante up and send the horse on a challenging campaign. We can look forward to that. Refreshing to have him and Hollendorfer, the two top trainers in California, willing fly over the Rockies with their best horses.

06 Mar 2011 10:41 PM
Footlick

Obviously people are more concerned with East/West bias.  Zenyatta is not racing anymore.  If people didn't have enough class to acknowledge her race up to now they aren't going to because all they are concerned about is slamming her.  So let's just move on.  It is very, very tired.  It is also very, very tired slamming West Coast horses and trainers demanding that they ship all over the country while East Coast trainers are heralded for shipping from Florida to New York.  Bias is bias and it can't be colored any other way.  Complain about Sadler when East Coast trainers are regularly shipping to Santa Anita to run in top races there...... on dirt.  Until then you have no basis to complain about him.  Again, just give it a rest.  You all are like little 8th grade girls.

06 Mar 2011 11:08 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- if Baffert sends Misremembered to Dubai his season will be over.  This is a horse who has trouble putting together a full season as it is.  Dubai will certainly knock him for a loop.  If you want him to run out East, which seems all important to so many of you,you had better hope he doesn't go to Dubai.

06 Mar 2011 11:11 PM
Tom F V

Jason in fairness to Sadler, he shipped quite a lot last year, correct? Cassidy seems to as well (EJ).

Truly though the Rockies thing is passe at this point.

06 Mar 2011 11:17 PM
Pedigree Shelly

          I understand what you are saying , I realize that the AP Indy line or AP Indy himself hasn't sired a Derby winner YET , I'ts just a matter of time ! Look at the World's famous sire Danzig , he himself never sired a Derby winner ! I just dont think it's fair to say to stay away from a known Classic producing sire line ! I wish you well on your Derby prospects, though I can't agree . :)

06 Mar 2011 11:18 PM
Jason Shandler

You're right Tim G, my bad.

06 Mar 2011 11:19 PM
Footlick

Jason- if Baffert knew that he would have run him off the bench.  That is the kind of trainer he is.  You even said he maps out challenging schedules for his horses, so if he knew Misremembered would win by 3 lengths, he would have run him.  Plain and simple.  He would had had 5 in there instead of 4.  Now, I like Misremembered, and he is a wonderful horse.  But would he have won at 10 furlongs off the bench?  I can only say maybe.  He only ran a mile in his comeback.  Was he fit enough to get those extra 2 furlongs against a full field?

06 Mar 2011 11:20 PM
Johnny

JayJay:

I thought of that angle as well..

If the owners feel like that than why have the sport or who will support it?

Now we have to make a decision if this is a prep race or not?

I hade this conversation with myself yesterday regarding Stay Thirsty..

I am not spilling sour grapes I just do not think the BETTING public should have to decide if the horse is going to run hard or not..

Like Herm Edwards said "You play the game to win".

06 Mar 2011 11:20 PM
Tom F V

Footlick, you hit the nail on the head.

Nothing more to see here folks, move along.

Once these horses retire, the concern from fans should be for their well being, from owners, breeders, sales agents etc the focus is on their breeding potential, well-being and so forth.

06 Mar 2011 11:22 PM
Jason Shandler

Tiznowbaby: Seems its not just Baffert and me...Read the final paragraph

www.drf.com/.../stay-thirsty-and-wacky-big-cap

06 Mar 2011 11:37 PM
tcc

Next Saturday the Derby winner runs. draynay 06 Mar 2011 10:04 PM

This might a correct statement, but it probably won't be running at Gulfstream.

06 Mar 2011 11:39 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

Good comments about Misremembered.  I'm glad to see him back and I like the way he won.  He got his final quarter in under 24 seconds and looked strong (man that west coast handicap division looks boss to me).  I also think that if Misremembered was entered in the Big Cap then we might possibly have seen one of the Dudes in this race.  

06 Mar 2011 11:41 PM
LAZMANNICK

No disrespect, but I don't put a lot of faith in what Watchmaker has to say at times.  He may or may not be right about Twirling Candy, but I find it hard to believe that TC was stopping when in his last (The Strub) and carrying one pound more than yesterday (123 lbs), he ran lights out with a 1.33.97 mile time in a 9F race in 1.46.53 on the same track.

Misremembered ran his mile yesterday against moderate competition carrying 117 lbs. in 1.33.5 and he could let it all hang out because it was a mile race.  The banging around and the steadying (not many mention that) had a lot to do with TC’s race yesterday.  Sell this guy short at your own risk.  Seeing that there are at least two more 10F races in Cali this summer, TC and Misremembered should get the chance to meet at the classic distance and it will be even more interesting because Game On Dude is now on the scene and he’s going to be tough also.

Watchmaker also missed the point about Quindici Man closing his fifth quarter in 23.62, hardly a long shot type finish.

06 Mar 2011 11:57 PM
jayjay

Johnny : Yes, I get that but horse racing have always been this way.  It's not like it's new.  There are worse things I can think of in horse racing than what your comment is all about.  We have drug offenses, race fixing etc.  An owner/trainer trying to prep their horse is the least of our worries.  I'm not trying to diss your comment, I'm just saying that it's widely known that it's a prep race.  Also, check out Zen's Auntie's comments about the race, she was at the track and posted a pretty good analysis of the race.  I'm sure Zito was expecting an easy win in the race, they didn't throw that race out.

Jason : What about showing us in "print" your blog about QR being the beast of the east??  Yeah, you have skills LOL.

07 Mar 2011 12:12 AM
Paula Higgins

O.k. here's my top three for the Derby: Uncle Mo, Bretheren and Stay Thirsty. Right now I don't see any significant competition for them.

07 Mar 2011 12:14 AM
Jon

@LAZMANNICK

you got things right after the horses had straightened out, on the turn(just before) 3 horses were very tight and the jocs have to maintain their lane/position, you cannot intemidate another horse when the going is tough because of that Joel had to be careful into bumping into Setsuko & Setsuko held his position, but, Joel had to take a hold of his horse later on when "Dude" had that massive bumping with left handed whip.

Is there anything Chantal did but left hand whip "Dude" to avoid running into TC several times later too?

07 Mar 2011 12:16 AM
Footlick

Laz- I really do like Misremembered, but obviously he is not the most durable of horses.  I believe if Mr Baffert thought he had the foundation to win the Big Cap off the bench, he would have been in there.  I think until they get Twirling Candy's head together he needs to stick to 7-9 furlong races where he is comfortable and the pace is quick enough for him to relax.  Remember this is a horse who has also won on the turf.  They have to separate Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy, so pointing one to turf and one to dirt would be logical, but within their optimum distances , they can do both.  Mr Sadler has an interesting dilema.  I feel the West Coast is hot in the older male and female ranks too, and with Bourbon Bay and Champs Pegasus, they may have the two best turf distance males also.  

07 Mar 2011 12:26 AM
Footlick

I really do like your blog Jason.  I know sometimes I go off and "lecture" but that is because I want legitimate information, not just smoke and mirrors and bias.  Even though I have alot of second and third places this year so far, you do give great info regarding how to bet exotics.  I hit a few at Arlington Park last year not using your picks, because I don't ever remember you posting any for Arlington Park, but I use your advice on how to bet the exotics.  And of course I bet the simulcasts.  I think you would do well at Arlington because even though it is poly, it is really true to form.  At least I have found it so.  And you can always find at least one horse who pays a decent price.

Anyway, I just wanted to let you know that, in case my blogs don't always say it.  thanks for the job you do.

07 Mar 2011 12:38 AM
jayjay

Here you go Jason, a little reminder...of my IQ

Jayjay: You obviously have a difficult problem recognizing talent. It's Ok, not everyone has the ability to see it. Quality Road is a beast in every way. Give it a rest pal.

jshandler 15 Jun 2010 11:04 PM

He's not a miler dude! He has set two track records at 9 furlongs and one at 6 1/2 furlongs. Yes, he is 0-for-2 at 1 1/4 miles but he does not excel on wet tracks. Pletcher's words, not mine. Just because he's a front-running type of horse doesnt mean he cant handle distance. Go back and watch the Florida Derby and Donn. Does it look like he was geting tired? Geez.

jshandler 15 Jun 2010 11:18 PM

Enough said...

07 Mar 2011 12:45 AM
stevebiscuit

Jason, I moved on a long time ago, but it seems you still haven't. As I recall, you picked both Cocoa Beach and Gio Ponti to beat Zenyatta in her first 2 Breeders Cups and you barely managed to pull one off last year.

You act like Blame was the first 9/2 shot you've ever hit, which wouldn't surprise me.

07 Mar 2011 12:53 AM
bj

Looks like Twirling Candy's another Quality Road. You gotta stay away from those horses who run really fast times in shorter races when they stretch out to 10 furlongs. They can't go the distance. I think Uncle Mo might be one of those horses. If he runs big numbers in his preps I won't be betting him in the Derby.

07 Mar 2011 1:26 AM
horse lover

What is happening with my favorite wild thing Sway Away?Haven't seen or heard anything about him lately.

07 Mar 2011 6:37 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

You could have made some money had Steve posted comments below submitted Saturday morning:

I know you are high on Stay Thirsty and I also like him in the Gotham. However, there is a colt that has captured my attention and that’s Norman Asbjornson. He is a son the recently diseased 1998 Derby winner Real Quiet. His connections started him at sprint distances in his first three starts. They quickly recognized that after being beaten a combined 33 ¾ L in those three races he was not a sprinter. His next two starts were at 8F & 8.5F which not surprising he won comfortably. His last was an 8.5F Allowance at Philly Park that he won in 1:43 flat. Now that fast for Philly Park. He has been off for 49 days and but come back an improved colt.  He broke his maiden in an 8F race at Penn National in 1:42 3/5. He recently worked a mile in 1:42 handily followed by 5F in 1:00. This obviously is a much improved colt. Consider this. Stay Thirsty was 14 1/2L behind Uncle Mo in the BCJ run in 1:42 3/5. He therefore completed his race in about 1:45 plus. Has Stay Thirsty improved 3 seconds during his respite? Who Knows!

The Gotham has been contested at 8.5F for the last 5YRS. The fastest recorded was achieved by I Want Revenge 1:42.65. The average time for this distance is 1:43 plus. Stay Thirsty contested one race at 8.5F and is projected finishing is 1:45 plus. Norman Asbjornson actual time for 8.5 is 1:43. Neither has raced at The Big A so no one knows how they will handle the surface. That advantage goes to Toby’s Corner. However, what is known is that Norman Asbjornson goes into the Gotham with less status than Stay Thirsty but a better recoded time for the distance. Does Norman Asbjornson have the class of ST? Probably not, but he is a staying son of a Derby winning stallion from the RAN sire line and that makes him dangerous. He must be a good exotic play.

07 Mar 2011 7:37 AM
Jon

and now setsuko is injured, not only was he robbed but he maybe on the side line.stewards.

Mandella should get serious and approach CHRB or the authorities who have a clout over these

07 Mar 2011 8:14 AM
Tiznowbaby

Jason, it is still completely laughable for you to say that Twirling Candy had "not much excuse," which was your original statement. That's silly, and you know it -- the horse was completely bounced around. You're just arguing odd things now. Would he have won without bumping? Not sure. Game On Dude was on a mission and very determined.

07 Mar 2011 8:16 AM
Footlick

Anyone interested in the Big Cap results should read Jay Hovedy's "Full Metal Handicap" in the DRF.  Just another point of view that supports what has been starting to come out on other blogs about where the trouble began and who initiated it.

07 Mar 2011 8:50 AM
Trebloc

I wake up this morning to see that the gloves are off.  WOW!  I for one was extremely happy that the stewards did not make any change.  (Please refer to my Friday post).  TC cannot get the classic distance.  Interesting comments made by Mr. Mandella about Mr. Baffert.  Trainer on Trainer crime?

I still think Chantel should have rode Mine That Bird in the Preakness.  Now that would have been a nice story line.  Both are easy on the eyes!

This is what I learned this weekend:

Mickey 1957 at 6'4' 230 LBS solid, thinks he's a stud. So, everyone beware.

I learned that DI should have been entered in a real derby prep.   Time was way too slow to be a real Derby threat.  I hope Uncle Mo does not run into the same problem.  

Stay Thirsty is a nice horse, should improve off that effort, but will not win the Derby.

Jason,

Any idea where Cal Nation is being pointed?

07 Mar 2011 8:58 AM
Draynay

Jason, when is Pletcher going to run Cal Nation again?

07 Mar 2011 9:31 AM
trackjack

Zen's Auntie:

Thanks for the on-track analysis.  Dialed IN got what he needed out of the race.  He really only began running at the 1/16th pole and downshifted and extended himself when the winner drifted out leaving a clear path in front.  If he can progress in the FLA Derby with a faster pace, he should be fine for the KD.  He looks like he wants more and if he can avoid too much trouble (a big if)and is clear at the 3/16th pole at CD, he will come roaring down the stretch.  Not predicting a KD win, just looking for a live horse for my ex box.

Trainers put horses into races all the time not expecting the best because the horse needs the race or the experience.  Most bettors can figure this out and make an educated decision how much to bet or even IF to bet.  It's called HANDICAPPING.

Stay Thirsty got what he needed in another slow-paced race, ran down the front runners and was extending himself to the finish line, good job.

It was only his 5th lifetime start and only his second start in 6 months. Excellent training job, Todd.

If the Derby winner is running this weekend, I hope he's in the Tampa Bay Derby, I'll be there.

Godd Luck to all!

07 Mar 2011 9:33 AM
Jon

Uncle Mo and his lesser-regarded stablemate, Stay Thirsty, remind me of Devil's Bag and his lesser-regarded stablemate, Swale, at this time of the year back in '84.  We all know how Devil's Bag just couldn't/didn't progress as a three-year old.  Swale won the Derby.  I predict the same outcome for Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty.

07 Mar 2011 9:45 AM
Jason Shandler

Thanks Footlick. Had a good year picking winners on THS last year, but am off to a slow start this year, admitedly. It will turn around.

Thanks for the comments. I enjoy the back and forth with you guys.

07 Mar 2011 10:05 AM
Jason Shandler

Dray and Trebloc: Cal Nation will go in an allowance race sometime later this month at Gulf, probably one mile.

07 Mar 2011 10:09 AM
Ranagulzion

Pedigree Shelly,

It's not about being a world famous sire since AP Indy is already "world famous". Actually, his chances of being a Derby-winner-producing influence may really be in the Broodmare sire department as a source of stamina.  He is the broodmare sire of Super Saver and that one's half sibling Brethren.

As for Danzig, it is well known that his forte had been as a sire of outstanding Turf sprinter/milers but he had occassionaly produced some good dirt routers being a son of the great Northern Dancer.  It will be interesting to see how his grandsons Soldat and The Factor fare in the Triple Crown races.

By comparison, if breeders had anointed Danzig and allowed other successful branches of Northern Dancer such as Sadlers Wells, Nijinsky, El Prado, Nureyev, Lyphard and Dixieland Band to be marginalized in the same way that other branches of Bold Ruler were left to pop up spuradically in the tail female family of Derby aspirants, the Northern Dancer line would be suffering the same fate on the Classic scene as BR is via Seattle Slew/ AP Indy.  Just my thoughts.  Peace.

07 Mar 2011 10:09 AM
Forbidden Apple

If it was Uncle Mo who was sandwiched between two horses and smashed hard, all of you Pletcher groupies would be crying. But since it was a CA horse, he must have been empty and could not get the distance.

ArchArchArch ran his mile in 1:38 1/5 and gets no repect, Stay thirsty ran his mile split in 1:38 1/5 and he is all of the sudden a KY Derby threat. Some of you are close minded and completely biased in your opinions.

Draynay,

I think more than a rock hit your head, Uncle Mo was a killer against 2 year olds. What has he done lately? The answer is nothing, just a few workouts with his pal Stay Thirsty.

07 Mar 2011 10:17 AM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I'm not high on Stay Thirsty.  He's not in my Derby Dozen but I do acknowledge that his effort in the Gotham was a promising performance.  As you should know by now I do not fancy any son of Bernardini to win the Derby.

As for "Norman", the connections of that colt are targeting the Preakness in their home state of Maryland.  He could have a chance of a show spot at Pimlico with vast improvement.

07 Mar 2011 10:18 AM
Trebloc

How about that NBA team down in Miami?  HA!!!

07 Mar 2011 10:25 AM
Draynay

Forbidden Apple you know nothing.  Uncle Mo is the best horse running right now.  After Saturday he will be just 4 races away from legend status with nothing to stop him.  Paula, you and I agree on the top 3.

07 Mar 2011 11:06 AM
Draynay

I guess California racing really is a joke.  Game on Dude a average horse from the east goes out West and dominates.  Too funny.

07 Mar 2011 11:09 AM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

After reading Hovdey's blog, Full Metal Handicap, scroll down and read the comments by "Onthescene".  This guy, Onethescene, is either full of it or he's telling the truth.  You be the judge.  Then go to Watchmaker's blog and read the paragraph above the one that Jason pointed out.  Very interesting how some people see something one way and some another.

horse lover

The last I heard is that Sway Away is either going to the rebel at Oaklawn Park (apparently The Factor is going there too), or the Sunland Derby.  I personally hope he goes in the Sunland.  The $800K purse is enticing as the winner of this race will have more than enough graded earnings to punch his ticket into the Derby.

07 Mar 2011 11:10 AM
LAZMANNICK

Forbidden Apple

Right On!

Now why didn't I think of that.

07 Mar 2011 11:15 AM
Footlick

Jon- Mr Mandella has alot of class.  He did what trainers are supposed to do in that situation when their  jock claims foul.  He kept silent.  

07 Mar 2011 11:17 AM
LAZMANNICK

Forbidden Apple

Draynay is still trying to cash his $100 win/place bet on first Dude in the Big Cap, the race where he said the Dude was going to get a class drop break.

Stay Thirsty’s slow time isn’t as bad as it looks.  All week long the two turn route races at Aqueduct have been 6 -8 seconds below the track record and in a 10F race earlier in the week the time was something like 2.11.  Stay Thirsty was only about 3 seconds off the track record in his race.  I believe he is a legitimate Derby horse, at least as a participant, and he has some kind of a shot.  I just don’t feel comfortable with his lack of racing.

07 Mar 2011 11:21 AM
Ivan

Now you know why Dialed In was not entered in the Fountain of Youth.

07 Mar 2011 11:24 AM
Mike Relva

JASON

Have you any news regarding Baffert's AP? He's under the radar.

07 Mar 2011 12:10 PM
Ted from LA

I still think Chantel should have rode Mine That Bird in the Preakness.  Now that would have been a nice story line.  Both are easy on the eyes!

Trebloc 07 Mar 2011 8:58 AM

That was sexist Trebloc.  You owe all the dames on this blog an apology.

07 Mar 2011 12:35 PM
mr pibb

draynay's the biggest clown east of the mississippi ( we all know he's never been west of there). Last weekend he picks Gourmet Dinner and when the horse gets beat cries about no pace even though the horse isn't a dead closer and sat right off the pace and could have gone by if good enough. This weekend he calls people rookies when the horse they liked (dialed in) got no pace to run at against older horses and came up short even though he's a legit closer and pace actually matters to him. It's better to be a "rookie" than so confused you can't make up your mind what matters from one week to the next.

07 Mar 2011 12:47 PM
horse lover

Thank you Lazmannick.Just love that wild eyed crazy running horse

07 Mar 2011 1:00 PM
Alexaso

Uncle Mo's pedigree questioning with Indian Charlie is very similar to what was commonly said about Secretariat with Bold Ruler. Read Bill Nack's book again and you will see it over and over again ending with Penny chiming in about it after Big Red's Derby win. The big difference I am seeing is that Laurin had Secretariat tightly wound and pushed him very hard in training. I am not sure if Pletcher will be so willing to push Uncle Mo very hard.

07 Mar 2011 1:24 PM
2:24

On an off topic note, great to see Azeri seems to be following in the footsteps of Personal Ensign as a broodmare in having successful offspring.  Two first time winners out of two starters.  Let's hope Rachel and Big Z follow in her footsteps rather than other great stars who were disappointing as broodmares.

07 Mar 2011 1:28 PM
Ted from LA

Rachel's pregnant!  Don't worry Dr. D, I'm talking about the horse, not the poster, and Curlin is the father.  I wonder what it is like to be happy to find out someone is pregnant...

07 Mar 2011 1:30 PM
2:24

Looking forward to being able to see Sway Away (maybe), Elite Alex, and Alternation in the Rebel especially with The Factor running.  I'm guessing theose horses will have quite a pace to close into.

07 Mar 2011 1:33 PM
Karen in Texas

horse lover---Sway Away is going to the Rebel at Oaklawn according to the Horse Racing Nation site.

07 Mar 2011 1:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

Do you think Uncle Mo is going to the Timely Writer for the class drop?  Are you going to bet another $100 win/place?

07 Mar 2011 1:54 PM
Footlick

Laz- did you read Hovedy's response?  I'm not discounting anything, but the fact remains that many people saw Game On Dude drift into Twirling Candy's path, including Watchmaker.  And Julie Krone didn't even need to see the replay more than once.  It is the steward's call and they decided not to look at it or decided that herding Twirling Candy into Setsuko didn't change where Twirling Candy was going to finish.  But it might have changed how Setsuko finished because he got injured in the race.  Anyway, it is over, the stewards made their decision and we have to move on.  Thoro-graph sis not feel Twirling Candy was coming into the race with enough rest from his previous effort as he has reacted before.  Many people feel he was not going to win even without the bumping because of fighting his jock and being rank.  Is he going to be another JO Tobin, who had a world of talent only to squander it because he was a whack-job?  We will have to wait and see.

07 Mar 2011 2:04 PM
Billy's Empire

So, Borel said that Elite Alex is starting to remind him of Street Sense, and he wouldn't trade place's with anyone, and Ritchey backed him up and said he should probably be undefeated but he had some bad racing luck. I know Calvin likes to talk, but Elite Alex and Alternation are tearing up the track at Oaklawn. This is shaping up to be a great race, and I wonder now who will ship from Cali, Sway Away or the Factor, since Bolton is in on both of them.

Anyone on public handicapper? If not, sign up. It is a fun way to bet weekly and see where you stand against the rest of the handicappers.

07 Mar 2011 2:06 PM
Footlick

Laz- "onthescene" reminds me of some bloggers here.  Not really interested if he was privy to the conversations or not.  It is still hearsay unless somebody recorded it.  Mr Mandella's statements in the DRF article seem like he is not very happy with Mr Baffert's conduct during the inquiry.

07 Mar 2011 2:18 PM
jayjay

Draynay : Just goes to show how great the trainers are in the West Coast, you need to start recognizing the facts.  Fly Down is probably the only good horse that will come out of the east this year.  The rest are probably going to be milers at best.  Game On Dude wasn't making any noise in the east, he comes west, to a great trainer and wins a G1. On the other hand, Rail Trip was doing very well in the West Coast, he goes east to a trainer that Jason has great respect for and we saw one race and never saw him again.  I say they bring him back to Cali, where horses are taken care of and trained well. :)

Karen in Texas : Thanks for that update about Sway Away.  He's one of my horses in RTTR and glad that he's not running in Jaycito's race.  I think he'll be at a good price in the Rebel too.  Elite Alex might be the favorite in that race.  I still like ArchX3, good thing trifecta at Oaklawn has a .50 minimum lol.  

Mike Relva : I think Awesome Patriot which is also in my RTTR will be running in the Felipe, last time I heard he was but not sure.  You're right though, he's very much under the radar.

I'm sticking to my top four :  Jaycito, Dialed In, THAS and Soldat

The one thing these "experts" keeps forgetting is that prep races means PREParing the horse for the big dance.  They see a horse win a prep and they jump on it and see a horse lose a race and thinks that's the end of that horse lol.  I'm suppose to be the one with no knowledge as Jason said, yet he of all people, questions Zito's horse Dialed In in that allowance race lol.  His last  comments reminds me of Draynay.  Pretty quick on the trigger to crown or doom horses.

Good luck to all next weekend.  Looking forward to Uncle Mo's paid workout.  He needs to stay fit to rabbit for Stay Thirsty :)

07 Mar 2011 2:33 PM
Draynay

Mr. Pibb you know nothing. Rookie. Gourmet Dinner ran in a GRADED STAKES race where the front runner was allowed to walk around the track.  Dialed In faced a bunch of maiden winners in a allowance race and couldn't get the job done.  Each race is different.  Like I said, Dialed In is not that good and yesterday he proved it.  I also said Twirling Candy was not that good and he proved me right too.  Go back to talking about horses that will have nothing to do with how the Triple Crown races finish like The Factor and Jaycito.

07 Mar 2011 2:36 PM
Draynay

I went to Tampa Bay Downs with the family yesterday and I would like to thank many on this blog for making my day so special.  Like many on this blog the people of Tampa have NO IDEA how to handicap.  For those like myself who are experts the grounds of Tampa are quite fertile. After hitting 3 pick 3's and 1 pick 4 we ended the day hitting a 10 to 1 shot that should have been 2nd choice.  After winning big it was off to International Mall and Bebe's for my wife to get some new spring fashions and then off to my favorite Sushi place off Gandy.  I want to thank all you rookies for placing all that money in my pocket Saturday.  We ate, we shopped, we laughed.  Today we went to the bank and deposited.  Thank you and see you next week at Gulfstream.

07 Mar 2011 2:48 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Really,a joke? Was Tiznow a joke?

07 Mar 2011 3:01 PM
Jason Shandler

Jajjay you are so tired. Move on dude.

07 Mar 2011 3:29 PM
sodapopkid

That was a good comeback Jason, You shut me up standing up.

We all may want to borrow those 'abilities' you possess one day, Hey, maybe if your 'abilities' can predict horse racing, hey, you may be able to fix the problems in the world.  

Jason,  Use your 'abilities' now and tell us if Ted from LA is going to be the next BC CEO?  Enquiring minds want to know...lol

07 Mar 2011 3:51 PM
Billy's Empire

Jayjay, you should really stop being so hypocritical. Out of one side of your mouth, you say the trainers on the left coast take care of horses and the horses are better taken care of, then out of the other side of your mouth you claim that 3 of your top 4 horses are trained by east coast trainers, Zito, Mott and Kiaran.

Kind of like when you said Soldat is not that good, you were not on the horse b/c he had not won on a fast track, and then all of the sudden he wins and is in your top 4. Must be easy to have all the answers when you always give yourself an out.

"The one thing these "experts" keeps forgetting is that prep races means PREParing the horse for the big dance.  They see a horse win a prep and they jump on it and see a horse lose a race and thinks that's the end of that horse lol."

Hypocrite. You did exactly what you are whining about above. People with a good eye for talent don't need to wait for a horse to run on a fast track when they are grade 1 placed on turf, a stakes winner on turf, and a 10 legnth allowance winner in the slop. He demonstrated he was a solid horse, but you still questioned him, now he is your top 4? WEAK dude.

07 Mar 2011 3:52 PM
The Rock

Jason,

You gotta love Mike Puype's comment about Turbulent Descent after her Santa Anita Oaks win.

"She’s going to need to cut back in distance,” Puype said. “We were maxed out at a mile and a sixteenth today.” He said Turbulent Descent (4-for-5) was likely to aim toward one-turn races in New York including the Acorn at Belmont and Test at Saratoga.

I wish more trainers would act as realistically as this guy with these fast 3 year old sprinters that are being pointed to the derby i.e. (The Factor, Flashpoint). And it was clearly evident that Turbulent Descent was getting weary coming to the line despite being up close to the soft pace up front.

If more trainer's & owner's for that matter treated their horses like Puype did, they'd hang around longer and leave room for horses that have a more realistic shot at winning the derby then being known for setting the record 1/2 mile fraction in the race.

My two cents about the Big Cap. Stewards got it right. TC drifted into Game on Dude's hindquarters, tilted him back to TC into Setsuko.

07 Mar 2011 3:58 PM
jayjay

Draynay : ..then you woke up in sweat because you lost the rent money ?  As Jason would say to me, let's see them tickets you cashed, you seem to be hitting all these races at big prices but none of your so-called "winners" are posted on the blog BEFORE the race...isn't that right Jason ?  You tell him...tell him we need winners.  Jason's got my back on this one.

07 Mar 2011 3:58 PM
Draynay

Lazmannick, hopefully I will be done counting the $ I won on Ashtyn Too yesterday to get a bet on Uncle Mo. I needed Ashtyn Too to win to hit the pick 3 five times and the pick 4 once.  Somehow I will get over First Dude losing. Now, back to counting my money.

07 Mar 2011 4:12 PM
Trebloc

The Rock,

Great point about Puype's comments after TB's win.  How many horses run in the Derby, that do not belong and are never heard from again.  Run them where they can win!

07 Mar 2011 4:21 PM
Billy's Empire

Rock, I saw that as well. TD was tired at that distance, but Mike knows she will do great at 7 and 8 panels. Zazu is going to be a threat in the Oaks, along with Kathmanblu.

07 Mar 2011 4:35 PM
2:24

Wow, the vitriol on this blog is amazing.  Come on people now, smile on your brother, everybody get together, try to love one another right now.

I look forward to everyone's opinions (other than that Tim cat who came out of nowhere calling everybody fools).  The likes of Draynay and Billy's Empire on one side and jayjay and Mike Relva on the other are indispensable in making this blog great.  But the name calling is getting rough.

I'm going to post my top-6 Derby horses in no particular order at this point.  I might be changing these horses based on prep race results in the future.  Smart handicappers will look at my list and cross all of these horses off theirs as I am mired in a betting slump.

Uncle Mo

Sway Away

Alternation

Brethren

Dialed In

Elite Alex

Based on my list, expect Soldat and Stay Thirsty to be the exacta on Derby day.

2:24

07 Mar 2011 4:42 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

I think Onthescene is full of it.  From what I hear even on Sunday Mandella was still upset.  My only problem with the incident is that Chantal shouldn't have hit him left handed turning into the stretch like that with two horses immediately alongside of her, and especially the third time when the horses were actually leaning into each other.  Oh well, I hope this type of incident doesn't happen again.

Regarding Twirling Candy.  He's had a busy two months with this his third race in about ten weeks.  All his races were tough and he ran hard in all of them.  I think that might have had a lot to do with him not pulling away when it looked like he was going to.  I would like to see a high spirited, competitive horse like him trained at longer distance to try and gear him down a little.  We sure don't see that anymore.  Even Seattle Slew, a TC type runner, had a mile workout just three or four days before the Derby.  Some of these trainers have to take responsibility for the way they train their horses.

07 Mar 2011 4:48 PM
tcc

          Do you

          Really

   expect All the bloggers

to believe You

         kNow

          All about picking

     this Years derby winner?

07 Mar 2011 5:01 PM
draynay

I posted Casino Host and Stay Thirsty out there for all to see.  Jayjay I have to be very careful who I give winners to.  My words shift mountains in this sport so I have to be careful.  Since I posted Uncle Mo would win the Triple Crown the odds in Vegas have dropped from 40 to 1 to just 12 to 1.

07 Mar 2011 5:16 PM
jayjay

Billy : You can try and twist my words but you have to try harder.  I told Laz way back that I said, I wanted to see Soldat run in a fast track, I said to him that his race in the slop was not indicative of how good he is IMO because I was questioning how the other horses handled the slop.  Just like any of my posts, I've always said, these are prep races, it's the time of the year where you can find out about the horses.  I'm high on Jaycito based on his running style, and his pedigree.  The same with Dialed In and THAS.  I didn't pick Soldat until after he won the FOY because it was a fast track and the way he controlled the pace and put away GD.  It's called understanding the horses, how they ran.  I don't rely on how quickly or slowly they ran the race.  I've never used that for any of my handicapping because it doesn't mean anything to me.  It's only useful to me if I can predict how fast the pace WILL BE in their next race and no one can predict that.

Soldat winning on turf or slop doesn't automatically translate to him winning on fast track and vice versa.  Remember Curlin ??  He dominated on the dirt, they tried him on turf and guess what, he never ran on it again.

If you also pay attention, my comment about the east coast trainer was directed at Dutrow.  The current trainer of Rail Trip.  Have you seen Rail Trip anywhere ??  or for that matter Dutrow, oh yeah, I think he's busy defending himself from allegations from NYRA.

Must be really frustrating trying to diss me when you really have nothing :)

07 Mar 2011 5:25 PM
Footlick

Billyt- I am on it, but not doing well this year as you can't do exotics.  I hate betting low odds, so I try to get a live longshot and keep coming up short.  I have 2nds and 3rds, but if I bet the logical winner, it wouldn't be as fun.

07 Mar 2011 5:48 PM
Footlick

Laz- yeah, I feel the same about the guy, but didn't want to come out and say it.  I feel the same way about the left-handed whip.  Why do that when more than likely your horse is going to drift out.  And then act like you did nothing.  It does bug me.  Game On Dude coming out on the far turn into Twirling Candy's path started the chain reaction.  It stated before the stretch.

My take on Twirling Candy is they need to get a jock who can let him run and get him to relax.  Let him set his own pace but make sure he is relaxed out there and not strangled.  They might find he will get 10 furlongs then, but not if he is being strangled.  Let the horse get into his stride and relax.  But then I'm not a trainer so what do I know.  

07 Mar 2011 5:53 PM
jayjay

Draynay : Oh yeah, how could I forget.  THANKS for Stay Thirsty and Casino Host, they ran at huge odds since no one picked them except you.  It gave us an idea how much you spent on shopping, and how much you took to the bank.  I totally agree with you, be careful, and I mean be very careful who you give your picks to, it might someone not as forgiving as most of the bloggers here. A bit of advice, keep them to yourself.  Don't let the world know who your picks are, it's safer that way.

2:24 : I like everyone here :)

07 Mar 2011 6:21 PM
tcc

They see a horse win a prep and they jump on it and see a horse lose a race and thinks that's the end of that horse.

Billy's Empire 07 Mar 2011 3:52 PM

There is a lot of truth in this part. This is great, because it opens up wagering opportunies on some horses that one might feel have a chance to do well.

07 Mar 2011 7:00 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Didn't you invent the wheel? Just asking.

07 Mar 2011 7:03 PM
Forbidden Apple

Wake me up when Uncle Mo wins a graded stakes race. This horse has more hype than Milli Vanilli, MC Hammer, and Ton Loc put together.

07 Mar 2011 7:08 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Gonna take the gloves off for a sec to ask a question regarding your comments leveled at JAY JAY. What's wrong with having respect for certain trainers on the east and west coast? Does it always have to be a contest between the two?

07 Mar 2011 7:08 PM
2:24

Ted from LA - good news.  I went to college with one of the new interim co-chairs of the Breeder's Cup.  While they're putting together the search committee, I'll be putting in a good word for darkhorse candidate Ted from LA.

07 Mar 2011 7:16 PM
Draynay

jayjay, I laugh all the time at those who don't understand why I bet on 2 to 1 or 8 to 5 shots.  Fact is I cash at the window again and again and all those seeking more value are still in their seats looking at the next race.  Many times the favorite IS going to win and there is nothing you can do about it.  You can choose to bet it and make some money or you can throw your value ticket away.  Making 400 bucks on Stay Thirsty was easy all you had to do is bet it.

07 Mar 2011 8:20 PM
2:24

Forbidden Apple - why did you have to do Tone Loc like that?  Obviously you need to listen to Loced After Dark again.

07 Mar 2011 8:32 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, you also lost $200 betting First Dude did you not?

07 Mar 2011 9:02 PM
LAZMANNICK

Dray

You could bet $120 bucks on Stay Thirsty to win and make a $100 profit or do what the big guys did, wheel him on top with $20 exactor bets, also $120, and make an $825 profit.  You could even wheel him on top with $10 exactors and win half that amount which would account for your $400 profit.  Of course to figure this out you would have to be able to handicap the possibility of a long shot finishing second and the possibility of the close second choice not getting there.  We all know you never bet long shots so how did you win $400 on Stay Thirst?  Don't tell me you bet $500 on him to win.

07 Mar 2011 9:04 PM
Paula Higgins

Ted from LA, that pregnancy comment had me laughing so hard I almost fell off the couch.

Draynay, it seems we are two of three people who still have Uncle Mo at the top of our lists. Steve Haskin being the third. The Wood will tell us the truth of the matter. I just don't see how you can count the horse out when he hasn't even raced yet.

Jason, you have the most lively, take no prisoners blog on the internet. I think I am including the figure skating blogs in that statement, which is saying something.

07 Mar 2011 10:24 PM
draynay

Lazmannick, it was a 20 dollar double with Jello Shot and a 2 dollar pick 3.  Piece of cake !  I had a great day at the track.  It started with a 200 place bet on Big Brownie and I never looked back from there!

07 Mar 2011 11:07 PM
Pedigree Shelly

      Rangulazion , I understand where you are coming from , but i want to dig a little deeper !

      There is a problem we must address in the breeding community " New Blood " !

      The US used to import bloodlines to refresh the current gene pool which is dwindling ! The names are the same , Mr P, Storm Cat , Valid Appeal , Danzig etc !

      We should be looking to import stallions again ! Let's look at stallions from Germany , Monsun comes to mind , in France , what about Linamix or one of his sons respectively ? We could even take a look at Japan ?

      There hasn't been a TC Winner in almost 33 years ! The American Thoroghbred has become a a fragile animal that can barely make it to age 4 ! ,especially if they are training towards the Classics ! I dont want to jinx anyone , but I'll bet you that one of the  " Big " Horses wont make it to the first Saturday in May !!

        Things must change in breeding, and training regimens if we to are able to witness another TC winner ! Every year I see important , historic , graded races , being chopped down , furlong by furlong !! This is disturbing !! The Triple crown races could be next !!! Let's turn this around ! It can be done !!!

07 Mar 2011 11:15 PM
Ted from LA

2:24,  You just made my decade.  I'm liking Ted from LA's odds.  Uncle Mo is going to win by 14 lengths Saturday.  Draynay is going to get an "Uncle Mom" tattoo (tattoo artist mistake) on Sunday.  

07 Mar 2011 11:23 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        Draynay , I'm glad you enjoyed your visit to TBD ! I used to live ten miles from TBD , Now I'm up in Hoosier Land :) I have always had trouble handicapping TBD ! Forget the form and pick numbers there :) I'm glad you like Stay Thirsty ! Peace !

07 Mar 2011 11:26 PM
draynay

Paula, after Saturday I believe Uncle Mo will be just 4 races away from legend status.  There is no horse running that can beat him. He will be 1 to 9 in every race except the Derby and he will be 8 to 5 in Kentucky.

07 Mar 2011 11:43 PM
GunBow

On Twirling Candy, he was not going to be in the top 3 even without the bumping.  He was a tired horse by then and backing out of it.  He looks like a world beater in grade 2s against small fields of overmatched foes, but in the two biggest 2-turn races of his life, he faltered in the stretch.  No way to get around that.

Baffert has the two best handicap horses on the West Coast, and both are Big Cap winners.  Game on Dude, as Baffert said after the race yesterday, is not a fluke.  He's a legit horse with tactical speed and the ability to carry this speed 10 furlongs.  He demonstrated toughness and great heart to not only overcome the bumping(some of which was his fault certainly) but to re-rally after Setsuko had passed him.

The 2nd Baffert horse in this tandem in Misremembered.  Misremembered absolutely dismantled some decent horses Sunday in an $80k ungraded stakes, running the mile in just about track record time.

Some may say that Misremembered was no more impressive in this race than Twirling Candy was in the Strub.  Well, actually, Misremembered finished 9 lengths clear of Indian Firewater while Twirling Candy was 7 clear.  However, it is true that like Twirling Candy, Misremembered had a perfect set-up and received the perfect trip.

However, the big difference is that Misremembered won his race off a one year layoff and that he is already proven at 10 furlongs against gr.1 competition.  What is more, Misremembered has proven himself outside of California, beating Giant Oak in the 09' Indiana Derby and beating Einstein, Bullsbay, and Macho Again while 2nd by a neck to Blame in the 09' Clark at Churchill.

Even though Misremembered won the Big Cap on synthetic, he is best on dirt.  Misremembered is an awesome physical specimen, and I'm kicking myself for not making it out to Santa Anita Sunday to see him.  Misremembered was one of my favorite horses from last year, and I was very confident he could go East and challenge the likes of Quality Road, particularly at 10 furlongs.  Prior to his physical issues last year, Baffert had planned on running him in the Oaklawn Cap, the Alysheba at Churchill, and then the Stephen Foster.

I'm hoping they stay away from Dubai, and gear Misremembered up for the Foster.  Then, he could take him back out to Cali for the Hollywood Gold Cup, a track over which he won the gr.2 Swaps.  Since he doesn't like Del Mar's Poly, it would then be on to Saratoga.

At 10 furlongs, I most certainly would take both Game on Dude and Misremebered over Twirling Candy.

08 Mar 2011 12:47 AM
Matthew W

Misremembered's Big Cap last year was strong--the field was as spread out as I ever saw on the pro ride--and he was close to the pace--he still had enough for the drive--only the real best of the best can do that, and if he's back to his previous form, then he's right at the top--as for Twirling Candy, he couldn't relax--I DON'T think we know him yet--he gets another chance, in my book--of corse, I'd probably not bet him (at 1 1/4).....having viewed The Kilroe Mile again, Caracortado came wide/Fluke hugged the rail--best horse probably was 2nd but can't fault Fluke for winning....Wilburn dazzled, Tiz A Bud Man, by Tizbud, loped by them in deep stretch--like he wants more ground--looks like a real nice Cal-Bred, just loved his stride--maybe the race wasn't as fast as Wilburn's--the last 3/8 by Tiz A Bud Man was as fast as Wilburn's, meaning if he routes, he's likely right at the top of the Cal-Bred heap.....

08 Mar 2011 12:53 AM
Ted from LA

Are we talking about picking winners at Tampa Bay Downs?  Ted from LA has been there too many times.  Each time he was surrounded my blue haired people who knew the horses better than the trainers did.  $2.80 would be a big win bet return on any given day.  Draynay would be like a pig in poop there.

08 Mar 2011 1:04 AM
Matthew W

RE Game On Dude--he has a nice record, I thought he should have come down--for that second bump--although I heard people say as soon as Twirling Candy hit Dude's hind quarter it was "game on, DUDE"--everything goes--I just thought the second bump caused TC to bump into Setsuko--and that was on Chantal for the left hand whipping--at any rate, The Big Cap was won by Game On Dude--he's a horse with a nice record, now Baffert has two Big Cap winners, with Missremembered winning the other day--also VERY nice to see Missremembered's old nemesis, Grazen, standing stud, having survived a breakdown in the Cal Cup Classic

08 Mar 2011 1:13 AM
trackjack

Draynay:

I like your comments of all your winnings AFTER the races.  I agree with you that sometimes you HAVE to bet the heavy favorite.  I understand value plays, but it is better to cash than to tear up.  Good luck with MO on Saturday in his walkover.

Ted from LA:

I'm still with you, man!  You have my vote.  The BC needs a "people person" in that position.  You're the man!

Pedigree Shelly and all:

I'm going to the TBD this Saturday for a dry run(no mint juleps)for Louisville.  First time ever at TB.  Any helpful handicapping hints would be appreciated.  Thanks  

08 Mar 2011 7:48 AM
Billy's Empire

Off topic,  Winslow Homer is racing this weekend in the Razorback, and a sleeper pick for the Oaks, Joyful Victory, is running in the Honeybee at Oaklawn this weekend. They both just had nice works in advance for their 2011 debut races.

08 Mar 2011 10:28 AM
draynay

Tampa is a very interesting track Shelly.  Sprinting I feel the outside horses have a real advantage and with 2 turn races I feel 1 thru 4 post is a real advantage.  Fitness is also key at Tampa.  Very rarely do horses off a layoff do well.  The last 3 times I have gone I have hit big. Sometimes 2nd choice horses are 8 or 10 to 1 and I be them to place and some 15 to 1 wins and I get paid because my horse does place with a 15 to 1 on top.  9.80 to place is something I will take all day.

08 Mar 2011 10:48 AM
draynay

Trackjack, I have been going to the track since 1969.  By now I know streaks don't last forever but I am going to enjoy this one. Last week I bought 25 tickets and cashed 21 of them.  How long will it last I don't know but I am having the time of my life and the weather is beautiful sunshine every day.  When does Calder start? Lol.

08 Mar 2011 10:55 AM
Ted from LA

Keep up the good run, Draynay.  As a dedicated student of the sport, you deserve it.  Thank you for the vote of confidence trackjack.  My first move as CEO will be to have a Titanic poster give-away on Friday at Breeders' Cup.  I'll be king of the world..............  my second goal is to have people randomly picked out of the crowd to ride as jockeys in the Classic.  Tell me that won't add to the entertainment, I dare you.

08 Mar 2011 11:23 AM
Billy's Empire

Footlick, You are picking some prices. I picked a few favorites, but I had the tri in the Gotham and in the Kilroe and Game on Dude.

(ridin the rails)

Just started back up last week, but I am in a contest now against a few friends so I will be picking weekly

08 Mar 2011 11:23 AM
jayjay

trackjack : How are you doing in the RTTR ?  I'm doing a little better this year since I picked most of the winners / hit the board horses for the preps but not as good as I'd like to be.  I was hoping to win at least one stage but it's not easy.

Someone posted a league id before and forgot to write it down.  Was hoping to join that league.  Need some pointers in handicapping these horses, I need someone to educate me about horses, can't pick a winner anywhere except when taking Draynay's advice.  It's great, and I'm enjoying it, just wish it's before the race though.  I think I'll start watching every THS show from now on :)

08 Mar 2011 11:24 AM
Billy's Empire

You know what can't get here fast enough Jason? Keeneland in the Spring!!! As Bart Scott said

"CAN'T WAIT!"

08 Mar 2011 11:46 AM
the illum

Hello Blogmaster are you reading all the posts? Who do you think will be added and or subtracted from the list of 23 for this weekends second installment of derby futures?

08 Mar 2011 12:55 PM
Footlick

Billy- yeah.  Since it is play money, I can be pretty free wheeling with the picks.  It is boring to me though to play who I think will logically win unless they are a price.  Anyway it is fun nonetheless.  Eventually I'll hit and suddenly I'll be well in the black again.  Glad you will be on there.  Good luck in your contest.

08 Mar 2011 1:06 PM
LAZMANNICK

I believe that Gunbow’s assessment of Twirling Candy was a little harsh.  When stating that he shone against G2 types, I didn’t quite get it because other than Twirling Candy there were no G1 winners in the race.  TC’s fault was not his ability to get the 10F.  A horse that in its previous was running away from the field after hitting the mile in 1.33.97 and the 9F in 1.46.53, surely should be able to stagger his final 8th in 13 seconds, which would have put him at the 10F mark in about the same time that the Big Cap was run.  TC’s problem (besides the pin balling) was that he was rank and a little head strong down the backstretch.  Rankness takes something out of horses.  His wanting to go forward at the mid point of the back stretch reminded me of Northern Dancer in the ’64 Belmont.  He wanted to go too and Hartack kept him under a tight restraint.  When it came time to pull the trigger the Dancer struggled.  Struggling against heavy restraints drains energy out of horses.  Some say he wasn’t a true distance horse.  Tell me how a horse can run the fastest Derby ever up to that time and until 1973 and next out dominate the Preakness and not be considered a true distance horse?

Game on Dude looks like he will be a top handicap horse this year.  He is strong, determined and has regrouped after a tough 3 year old campaign that saw him run six times by June, many of his races against top competition and this without the benefit of racing at two.  Setsuko, like Little Dude, is still only a maiden winner, but did run second in last year’s Santa Anita Derby and Sham Stakes and looks like he will take kindly to dirt.  He was no match for TC in the Malibu, but it was his first race since April and 7F is not his ideal distance.

Regarding Gunbow’s assessment of Misremembered……I totally agree.  Probably the best dirt horse racing in N/A right now.  A total beast that if he keeps together will be tough for any horse through the balance of the year.

08 Mar 2011 1:08 PM
Billy's Empire

game on dude going to Dubai World CUp

08 Mar 2011 1:46 PM
jayjay

Jason : Did you see Draynay's post about UM being 8/5 in the Derby ?  You go tell him about understanding betting, you know, 19 to 20 horse field race ?  Is it possible ??

08 Mar 2011 1:46 PM
draynay

Jason, after Uncle Mo romps in the Timely who on earth will show up to get whipped in the Wood?  We may end up watching a 3 horse race in the Wood.

08 Mar 2011 1:48 PM
jayjay

Laz : Were you aware that Misremembered was gelded since his last start ?  I'm not sure if that had something to do with his powerful looking win or not but maybe it did.  He just looked like was running pretty hard like he forgot something at home.

08 Mar 2011 2:02 PM
Jason Shandler

You said 6-5 Jayjay. That is impossible. He wont be 8-5 either though, I think 2-1 is lowest a horse would be for 20 horses.

Dray: The Wood field is shaping up to be very weak. See my blog from last month predicting this.

Illum: There will be about 5-7 new names on the 2nd future pool.

08 Mar 2011 2:03 PM
illum

who do you think will be replace jshandler?

08 Mar 2011 2:08 PM
Jason Shandler

Anthony's Cross, Clubhouse Ride, Decisive Moment, Indian Water, Machen, Tiz Blessed for sure.  

08 Mar 2011 2:13 PM
jayjay

Billy : What would be interesting news about Game On Dude is whether Chantal will be riding him in Dubai.  I haven't seen any article where Baffert actually talked about her ride in length.  I think I read one that was almost passe...not sure if he chose her to ride the horse or was it the owner.  I know Bob's a top class trainer and I'm actually a big fan of him and admire him but not sure about his demeanor towards the jocks.  I'm not saying he's a sexist, it could've been Jon Court riding Game On Dude and I probably would've expected the same response from Baffert.

08 Mar 2011 2:16 PM
LAZMANNICK

Jayjay

Misremembered was awesome last year.  Gelding certainly didn't do him any harm though the owners might regret it if the horse keeps it up. I think he was always cut out to be one of the top ones.

08 Mar 2011 2:18 PM
Billy's Empire

Barbaro was undefeated and was 6-1.

Big Brown was 4-1

How on earth Firesian Fire was 7/2 I have no clue....

Smarty Jones was 4-1 or 9/2. No way Mo is less than 3-1, unless these other horses just keeping puking on themselves and losing. That is by memory, so if I am slightly off, please don't attack me. The lowest he will be IMO is 3-1 if he wins his 3 preps.

08 Mar 2011 2:20 PM
Jason Shandler

Big Brown was about 5-2. I think Mo would be about the same, maybe a bit less. Even after he wins the Timely Writer and Wood by a combined 15 lengths some people still wont be convinced.

08 Mar 2011 2:22 PM
illum

What about astrology,is he running this weekend in the SF

08 Mar 2011 2:24 PM
Billy's Empire

Jayjay, that is a good question. I am willing to bet he sends Garcia to ride him, but it may depend on what other horses he sends to Dubai. He probably will not have a jock to go out and ride 1 race if he sends more than 1 horse. He will most likely have the same jock on all of his horses if he sends a few, which in my opinion would be Garcia. Anyone else care to offer an opinion? Heck, what other horses may be going to Dubai?

08 Mar 2011 2:24 PM
Billy's Empire

OK, I thought I might of been off on one of them, again, top of my head. Thanks Jason!

08 Mar 2011 2:27 PM
draynay

Big Brown was 9 to 5 right up until a few minutes before they got in the gate.  Mo will be 8 to 5 much of the day until right before the race and he may edge up but not much.  After his race Saturday and after his Wood walkover there won't be any doubt who the Derby winner is.

08 Mar 2011 2:54 PM
tcc

What about astrology,is he running this weekend in the SF

illum 08 Mar 2011 2:24 PM

As of Sunday his name wasn't listed in the projected field.

Maybe the Rebel?

08 Mar 2011 3:08 PM
illum

B-empire I agree with you that if he sends 3 or less he would probably send his go to rider garcia.But looking at it another way who was his go to rider when garcia was deported to mexico for citizenship issues,also the agents for the jocks that rode the horses to their last win on the ones he sends will sell their clients,depending on if they want to go to dubai.

08 Mar 2011 3:14 PM
tcc

Big Brown paid $6.80 to win, making his odds 2.40-1.

08 Mar 2011 3:38 PM
jayjay

Laz : You're right, he was although we didn't see much of him last year.  I do remember him winning the Big Cap last year running much closer to the front.  Hope we get to see him more this year and hopefully make it to the Classic.  

tcc : TheDowney is reporting the Rebel to be Astrology's next race, their best guess.

San Felipe will probably have 2 Derby starters coming out of it.  I really like Albergatti with Gomez up.  I think Jaycito is too much class for the field but like THAS, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't win the San Felipe for his first start back.  He's got Martin Garcia though and this boy just keeps winning stakes races for Baffert.  I also can't leave out RFO, his maiden win was just awesome, and he's got Rosario.  I may have to spend more than $5 on this race.  If Jaycito runs at 7-5, I'm going all in with my $5 bucks, then I'll go shopping at the local Dollar store and chow down with my friends at MickeyDees with their dollar menu.  Fun times ahead!! Looking forward to it!

08 Mar 2011 3:54 PM
GunBow

Misremembered was gelded?  I habn't heard that.  He had been a ridgling.

Game on Dude to Dubai, Misremembered to the Oaklawn Cap.  The handicap calender in the States after the Big Cap has fallen apart.  Once upon a time, out in Califronia there was the 9 furlong San Bernardino(now the 12 furlong Tokyo City), and the Mervyn Le Roy and Californian were gr.1s.  Back East, the Gulfstream Park Cap' was a gr.1 at 10 furlongs, the Oaklawn Cap was a gr.1 $500k race, there was the gr.1 Pimlico Special, and the Suburban and Brooklyn were gr.1s.  These days, there is little between the Big Cap and Foster.

08 Mar 2011 3:55 PM
GunBow

Laz:

Twirling Candy most definitely was rank.  I saw that he was rank when I watched the race live and in person at the track.  I turned to those around me and said Twirling Candy is probably not going to win now.  Then, he was still rank on the backstretch.  I didn't know if Twilring Candy could run 10 furlongs under ideal conditions, and given the way the race unfolded for him, I knew he had no chance to win.

I guess the bigger point is that it really doesn't matter why Twirling Candy didn't get 10 furlongs, it's that he didn't.  And that in his two gr.1 route races he has faded out of the money.  I warned before the Big Cap' that Twirling Candy becomes an especially risky wager considering that he can lose mental discipline and that he can get rank and pull.  His mental disposition was one the reasons I had doubts about his ability to run a distance against elite competition in the first place.

I suppose I was harsh on Twirling Candy, but is it a coincidence that he behaves well mentally and rates at 2 turns when facing inferior competition and in receipt of perfect trips, but when facing tougher horses and less than ideal pace scenarios he becomes ranks and then falls apart late?  No question the bumping didn't help him hang in there, but I truly think he was backing out at that moment anyways, and that he had little to no shot at finishing in the top 3.

To Twirling Candy's credit, I thought he was excellent in the gr.1 Malibu at 7 furlongs against a quality field.  Maybe he is more of a miler, like Sidney's Candy?

08 Mar 2011 4:07 PM
I tell it like I see it

draynay aka Mr. BS has taken it to another level. For someone who couldn't handicap his way out of a brown paper bag he sure can pick them after the fact. nobody believes your BS draynay, you've been shoveling it far too long for anyone to buy it.  

08 Mar 2011 4:20 PM
Karen in Texas

Astrology is now shown to be going to the Rebel per the Horse Racing Nation Derby contenders site. (I don't think he was listed there as recently as yesterday.)

08 Mar 2011 4:45 PM
Jason Shandler

Misremembered is a ridgling.

08 Mar 2011 5:00 PM
LAZMANNICK

GunBow

What's the word on Richard's Kid?  One week Watchmaker has him highly rated and the next he isn't even in his top ten.  Is he injured or possibly retired?  I also see where Misremembered got a 105 Beyer and Game On Dude a 99.  Beyers are loosing their credability for the west coast races.  I know that there is limited info to go on regarding the SA dirt since the switch, but a 99 Beyer for a 1.59.4 effort?  It doesn't make me a believer in his rating anymore.

08 Mar 2011 5:15 PM
Forbidden Apple

Draynay,

Uncle Mo will not win the Triple Crown! Please stop disrespectig the true champions who were able to sweep the crown.

Your horse Uncle Mo may have at least one real contender in the Wood Memorial, his name is Arch Traveler. And this horse has plenty of speed to run with Mo, good luck with your 1/9 score.

Were you sleeping this weekend Draynay? You were on these blogs last week running your mouth about how fast Flashpoint is. He is not even the fastest colt at Gulfstream. Apriority just went 21 4/5,43 4/5,1;07 4/5, and finished 6 1/2f in 1:14 2/5. His 6f split was one full second faster than Flashpoint!

08 Mar 2011 5:28 PM
Footlick

Laz- Richard's Kid just ran in one of the Maktoum challenges and didn't do well.  Conveyance ran in a different race there and just got caught on the wire.

08 Mar 2011 5:53 PM
Footlick

Billy- there is a pretty deep jockey colony riding at Dubai right now and not all of them will have DWC mounts.  So if he only sends Misremembered he can probably get a top jock to ride frim there also.  I'll bet there are some euro jocks who would jump on and they are getting alot of experience on that Tapeta course.  I don't think it is the easiest course to get a handle on.

08 Mar 2011 6:04 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

It's not that easy is it when one of your fav horses doesn't garner respect like you think they should. Trust me,I know how you feel.

08 Mar 2011 6:06 PM
Footlick

Did I say Misremembered?  Is he going to Dubai or are they thinking Game On Dude?  I'm at work and doing many things at once-sorry

08 Mar 2011 6:10 PM
jayjay

I swear I saw that on the SA TV just before the race, they had one of those information saying #8 was gelded since last race. This was during the parade of Misremembered's race but it could've been for another race.  I guess Jason can verify it with Baffert.

08 Mar 2011 7:51 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        Draynay ,  Visiting the tracks in Florida this time of year , the weathers great but trust me you don't want to live there year round !! The summer starts in April and doesn't end till November and even that time of year,you could making a hot Thanksgiving turkey with temps in the 80's :( I especially pity the horses that run at Calder ! They should definately be racing under the lights there ! Sorry Floridians , I enjoy the change in seasons :)

08 Mar 2011 8:35 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

Thanks for the info on Richard's Kid.  I read Jason's article about Game On Dude and possibly even Misremembered going to Dubai.  I thought it strange that Baffert never said anything about Richard's Kid, then realized that he, along with Connveyance, probably switched trainers when the Sheik ordered them back to Dubai.  Too bad for Baffert.  He did a lot for both horses.  

08 Mar 2011 8:44 PM
Jason Shandler

Are people really that naive to think the Timely Writer wont fill? Ive seen 3 stories about this today. Guilfstream spent thousands on marketing and are having 2,500 Uncle Mo T-shirts printed. Trust me folks, the race will fill.

08 Mar 2011 9:14 PM
LAZMANNICK

Todd apparently has enough horses nominated that he could fill the race himself.

08 Mar 2011 9:20 PM
Matthew W

Of course there will be doubters--it's 1 1/4 and he's by Indian Charlie--c'mon, this is Thoroughbred Horse Racing! That (differing opinions) is what adda spice to the soup! Baffert just "corraled" Twirling Candy (his words) in the Big Cap (at 1 1/4), now he's gonna try to do the same to Uncle Mo, who is very much like Twirling Candy--sure I believe he's best--TONS---sure I'm looking for a horse to beat him/it's 1 1/4, I bet against Twirling for the same reason I'm looking for a Mo-beater---and I'm looking at Baffert---Jaycito!

08 Mar 2011 10:03 PM
Forbidden Apple

Of course the Timely Writer will fill, besides Uncle Mo, Pletcher nominated 12 other horses to the race.

08 Mar 2011 10:07 PM
Footlick

Sheikh Rashid has them back in Dubai.  But once that season is done I wouldn't be surprised to see them back here.    

08 Mar 2011 10:43 PM
Footlick

Jason- I agree about the Timely Writer.  They will make sure it fills.

08 Mar 2011 10:44 PM
tcc

Jason:

Are you going to do all 3 of these weekend preps on THS this week? (Tampa Bay Derby, San Vincente, Timley Writer).

08 Mar 2011 10:46 PM
Johnny

So is Uncle Mo race Sat just a practice or is he really going to try?

If he looses are the excuses allready their?

If he wins is it against 3 other Pletcher horses..

BETTING minds want to know??

08 Mar 2011 11:02 PM
Draynay

Great point Jason.  The race is going to fill for sure and I am going to have my GO MO shirt on! I want to give the blog a winner on Saturday so for the record bet on Mo to win!   After the Timely it will be one down with four to go.

08 Mar 2011 11:14 PM
sodapopkid

Folks,  TRUST JASON.  We know he has 'abilities' so he already knows these things.  If he says the Timely Writer is going to 'fill' then it's going to fill.   Don't piss this man off,  we need him for the remainder of the year for all our handicapping needs.  Let's not judge him, but trust him...lol...Oh, by the way folks since I have your attention now,  I have some very nice beach front property for sale in the desert. I know you will like it, it's very reasonably priced...lol

Well, this weekend is going to be the big coming into race for UMO for 2011.  Jason, is UMO going to come into 2011 like a lion or like kitten?   I know you know already..        sodapop

Sherpa, Have I been racing good lately?   You didn't tell me how good my counterpart (SPK) ran in his last race.  

09 Mar 2011 6:25 AM
Jason Shandler

tcc: Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Derby doesnt draw until Thursday so we cant do that race. And the Timley Writer wont be worth betting, so we'll pass on that too. San Felipe and probably a Gulfstream race.

09 Mar 2011 10:01 AM
Ted from LA

Jason,

What races are you going to comment on for your TV show this week?  I suggest having a hand puppet show using characters from this blog.

09 Mar 2011 12:11 PM
Jason Shandler

Good idea Ted. Dray could be a clown, Jayjay a wizard since he is such a handicapping expert, and I'll make a puppet of Leonardo Dicaprio for you. Mr. Titanic himself.

09 Mar 2011 1:29 PM
mz

Ted: I am surprised that you made no comments about Misremembered and the ridgling/gelding comments.  Maybe too easy?

Still like Dialled In.

Still waiting to see if any fillies are going to step up.

Let's see if Uncle Mo can go further.

Remember the Tapits and the Candy Rides (hey Jason: can we bet by sires instead of actual runners?)

09 Mar 2011 1:50 PM
Ted from LA

I'm touched.

09 Mar 2011 2:23 PM
mz

I'm sorry Billy's Empire: the day after International Womens' Day, was this supposed to be funny?  

09 Mar 2011 2:31 PM
2:24

Or a Kate Winslett puppett for alter ego Meg from LA.

09 Mar 2011 2:54 PM
Trebloc

The entries for the Tampa Derby are in and Brethren is in the ten hole and Uncle Mo in the four hole.  It is being reported that UM will run against five colts in the Timely Writer.  Should be a fun filled weekend of racing.

09 Mar 2011 3:01 PM
Billy's Empire

Ok, this weekend just got much more exciting. Not only is the great Uncle Mo racing, but Pluck is racing Queensplatekitten in the Palm Beach. Rattlesnake Bridge going to be the biggest threat to MO. Pluck racing for Motion, same trainer as Toby's Corner, while QPK is now racing for Pletcher. I am sticking with QPK. Pluck may need a race.

09 Mar 2011 3:13 PM
Ted from LA

Ted from LA is busy painting Kate Winslett.  No time now for gelding ridgling banter.

09 Mar 2011 3:24 PM
tcc

Jason:

Tampa is a very interesting track Shelly.  Sprinting I feel the outside horses have a real advantage and with 2 turn races I feel 1 thru 4 post is a real advantage. draynay 08 Mar 2011 10:48 AM. Based on the above post, let's see who he picks in this race?(Tampa Bay Derby)Race #11.

Post #1 Striding Ahead

 "  #2 Economic Summit

 "  #3 Beamer

 "  #4 Uncle Mo (also cross-entered at Gulfstrem- will probably scratch here).

 #  #5 Too Experience  

09 Mar 2011 4:35 PM
Draynay

I am happy to see another Graded Stakes winner in the race.  Uncle Mo will dominate and leave little doubt who is the best horse in training.  Triple Crown here we come.

09 Mar 2011 4:47 PM
LAZMANNICK

It's also interesting to note that Queen'splatekitten is in the Palm Beach against Pluck.

09 Mar 2011 4:47 PM
sodapopkid

I expect that after all those 'tear jerking'  movies that Ted from LA watched that week he surely has reached the interdepth of his feminine(Meg) side by now.   Lord, I think I would have went bananas  watching all those sad, depressing movies.

I am getting excited about another full weekend of horse racing....BOOWAH!!!

Can't wait to see UMO this weekend...

09 Mar 2011 5:04 PM
no mo mo

Gee draynay unca schmoe at 1/9 on saturday? way to go out on a limb with your prediction. for the record: anyone who bets on him at those kind of odds is as insane as you are.

09 Mar 2011 5:36 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

At least humor me and say what your spin will be if he doesn't win the triple Crown,let alone the Derby. I'm all ears.

09 Mar 2011 6:26 PM
jayjay

I want a cone wizard hat with stars and moon on it.

09 Mar 2011 7:20 PM
Draynay

Mike, if he doesn't win the Derby my spin will be gee I wish the jockey didn't fall off the horse.  If he doesn't win Belmont I will say fresh horses ganged up on him and he just didn't have enough left in the tank.  Hopefully after he wins the Derby and Preakness you will jump on the wagon and cheer for our first Triple Crown winner in many years.

09 Mar 2011 8:14 PM
Forbidden Apple

I hope Uncle Mo takes it easy early, because Madman Diaries has serious speed. If Mo gets caught in a speed bump, I think Rattlesnake Bridge can win.

Pluck is also entered in an allowance race at Tampa, I think he will run at Tampa with R. Dominguez up. A pluck/Belle Of The Hall double might pay $8.

The play of the day for me is Keertana for another win. This mare loves to run, I am looking forward to her race.

And I'll take Beamer to upset in the T.B. Derby.

09 Mar 2011 8:22 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I realize you take pride in being able to predict the future,trust me, the day will never come when I endorse any horse that Pletcher trains.

09 Mar 2011 8:49 PM
stevebiscuit

Draynay, as an Uncle Mo fan you should be embarrassed if Uncle Mo doesn't win by 10 under wraps. Seriously, Mine That Bird would win this race.

09 Mar 2011 11:23 PM

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