Rebel: Going for the Gusto

The Rebel is the only Kentucky Derby prep of the weekend but it's a full field which results in a good betting opportunity, and it has maybe the most intriguing Derby contender out there: The Factor.

If The Factor can't carry his electrifying speed around two turns Bob Baffert will drop him back to sprinting. But if he is successful, he will move onto the Arkansas Derby, and potentially the Kentucky Derby. If that latter happens, it could change the whole complexion of the race on May 7.

The Factor is a runaway train, Baffert admitted so himself. There is no rating this colt, so they will send him and see what happens. As fast as he is and off of what we saw in the San Vicente, I have to believe that he will have some say in the outcome of this race. Even if he doesn't win, I think he will place somewhere in the money. There is not much true speed in here and if he gets away with an easy lead it could be see-you-later-time.

As it is, I'm going with J P's Gusto for the win. I firmly believe that J P's Gusto will be in over his head the longer he goes, but 1 1/16 miles should be right up his alley. It can be argued that J P's Gusto was the best horse in the Feb. 21 Southwest. He was full of run heading into the stretch but was caught in back of a wall of horses and wasn't able to get out until Archarcharch had already gotten the jump on him. He still closed well to be beaten only a length.

Since that race the Successful Appeal colt has had two sharp works. He gets Dominguez back and should sit a nice stalking trip behind The Factor. J P's Gusto is a tactical horse with enough speed to put himself in position for his stretch run. Some of the others in here without as much speed may be at the mercy of their trip in a large field. J P's Gusto was a three-time graded stakes winner as a juvenile and ran a good second to Jaycito in the grade I Norfolk in his only try around two turns. He has a lot of class to fall back on. And unlike the Southwest when he was 6-5, he should be a nice square price in a large field that will see The Factor favored.

I also like Alternation to run well from off the pace and will use him to fill out my exotics. Donnie Von Hemel is an excellent local trainer and did a good job of decision making with this colt. He could have thrown him into the Southwest but opted for a two-turn allowance race on Feb. 21, a race that Alternation won by 3 1/4 lengths. He's had two strong works since then and if he gets a good trip and a fast pace could be flying at the end.

Sway Away, a strong closing second to The Factor in the San Vicente intrigues me, as does Elite Alex, who had every chance to win his last two starts but seemed to hang in both. I will take a wait-and-see approach with both colts.

Archarcharch may be better than people give him credit for. We all seemed to want to make excuses for many other horses in the Southwest, but Archarcharch was very impressive in his own right. With his tactical speed, there is no reason to think he shouldn't be right in the thick of things and if he is disrespected at the windows again, I will certainly use him in trifectas.

Glint would be the most logical of the big longshots to hit the board. He might show more speed in his second start back, as he did when breaking his maiden last year at Hoosier Park.

Good luck this weekend. Let me know who you like.

278 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Draynay

The Factor will be no factor in this race.  He is running on a real track and will find his speed is not enough.  I haven't looked at the race yet but I have to think Sway Away will be tough here.  Cal Nation is running Saturday and he is better than all these horses anyway.  Go Cal.

17 Mar 2011 3:41 PM
Forbidden Apple

I watched the handicapping show and I am not buying the false move comment. Both Sway Away and Premier Pegasus ran huge races regardless of the pace or finishing times. Sway Away has never run a bad race and I think he will win this race and prove that he is not a closing sprinter. I am using ArchArchArch and The Factor underneath in the exacta. The continued talk of Cali tracks not being worthy is absurd. By the time the KY Derby rolls around, the state of California will be well represented. I repeat, all of you Uncle Mo/Pletcher groupies better hope that The Factor runs poorly in the Rebel. This horse ran a monster race in the San Vicente and will give Mo nightmares if they ever face each other.

Cal Nation, who cares? Draynay, how can you completely discount The Factor, but pick Sway Away? The Factor did win his last race against Sway Away and that was after missing training and with only a few works.

17 Mar 2011 4:18 PM
Josha

I like JP too, I think Swayaway maybe an underlay here. I am going to box those 2 up with Elite Alex and Alternation. I might throw some money on ArchArhcArch for PS spots. This race will be the factor's proving ground and will be a short priced favorite. But, I still might put him in a EX/TRI box with my top horses.

17 Mar 2011 4:19 PM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 Keeping Sway Away off your tickets is going to cost you money.

Draynay,

 Get off Sway Away right now and don't ever get back on him. Keep your jinx with Mo right up until the first of May. Don't forget 487 and 1

17 Mar 2011 4:21 PM
Zen's Auntie

A field of twelve? Now we are getting somewhere - Im on board with Acharcharch to a handle the bumping and shoving rate well handle the two turns and give it a good effort. I think he is looking at more like his natural distance here.  If the pace is blazing which may be the case trying to clear all these colts, I look for AAA to stalk well and slip out and keep a lead. however, if AAA tries to clear from the 1 just out,  he may be done in.

I will Keep and eye on handsom Bandbox to get in front this time at Laurel the 19th.  

17 Mar 2011 4:36 PM
Tiznowbaby

With the Wood being bumped to $1 million, I think the connections would be foolish not to send UM there. That's a lot of win money.

Still trying to figure out the Rebel. Exciting race.

17 Mar 2011 4:39 PM
SnakeEyes

Horses stretching out and running at a foreign track are not a good bet.  But Bob Baffert is not your average everyday trainer.  Still, I'll play against both California invaders and use two horses from the Southwest.

17 Mar 2011 4:39 PM
Ranagulzion

My wish is that The Factor wires this field and does it impressively even though I dont see him as capable of winning the Kentucky Derby based on his pedigree.

17 Mar 2011 4:53 PM
Love 'em all

Cheering for ... THE FACTOR.

17 Mar 2011 5:13 PM
Zarkava

J P´s Gusto

Sway Away

Archarcharch

Don´t think The Factor can carry his crazy speed two turns, but I´d love to be wrong on that one!

17 Mar 2011 5:34 PM
illum

I dont have a strong opinion on the race but,I believe the factor will have an impact on the rebel.If he sets a strong enough pace the whole race will fall apart and when that happens longshots come in the money.I will watch the race and check out the odds just in case I find an appealing bet.The Derby handicapping puzzle takes more work to have a good idea on has a great shot to win or hit the board.To handicap the derby and the triple crown IMO its more about watching the preps and trying to figure out trainer and owner intentions.Why would they run in this prep and not one closer to where the trainer has his base, is it because the horse needs an easier field to win and get his confidence or is it strictly to not run against others in his barn etc.

17 Mar 2011 7:04 PM
2:24

I like Alternation, archarcharch, elite Alex and sway away in this race.  Don't know what order they will finish in but considering boxing those four.

17 Mar 2011 7:08 PM
Footlick

If The Factor can set "reasonable" fractions, especially if there is not any speed to try to push him, he may easily get 8.5 furlongs.  He seems to be a horse who you have to get to relax while he runs the race he wants to run.  If Garcia can do that, the race is probably over.  I've always liked JP's Gusto, and I see nothing wrong with Archarcharch.  Sway Away benifited from an insane pace when he looked like he was rocketing in the stretch.  Not sure he will be as effective with a slower pace.  Of course, if The Factor goes out too fast, he will come back to the field.  But I'll pick the Baffert/Garcia/Factor team on top with JP's Gusto, Archarcharch and Glint, who I think is an interesting longshot.  We will see.

17 Mar 2011 8:21 PM
StonesRoy

I love Archarcharch but hate to see him carrying top weight (5-7 lbs more than all but Calebs Posse).  If he makes the money, I'll feel real good about him moving forward.

I think Calvin pulls a rabbit out of his hat and wins on Elite Alex.  

I see JP's Gusto getting a perfect pocket to stalk the speed.  

I'll use those two on top and wheel a few under...AAA, Sway...maybe Alternation.

Can't wait for this race!  

17 Mar 2011 8:32 PM
mickey 1957

funny,the factor has a better route,pedigree than mo.

17 Mar 2011 8:41 PM
mickey 1957

the factor,won't win the derby,but he will cost mo of any chance of winning,if he run's....I think baffert will run him as a rabbit.

17 Mar 2011 8:45 PM
Paula Higgins

I am sticking with the Factor. I think he is more than sprinter.

17 Mar 2011 9:00 PM
Mike Relva

The Factor winning!

17 Mar 2011 9:02 PM
2:24

Mickey - really?  You think Baffert is going to run a horse as special as The Factor as a rabbit?  You think he is going to risk burning out a potential sprint champion to soften up Uncle Mo for Jaycito?  And why would that even work - Mo is extremely rateable and isn't getting caught in any ridiculous pace duel.  Do you think Baffert was born yesterday?  C'mon man.

17 Mar 2011 9:22 PM
John

The Factor is a horse nobody really knows what to expect except his blazing speed.  He's out of War Front, whom was basically a seven furlong horse but still finished first or second in 9 of 13 races, but War Front is out of Danzig (3 for 3) before retiring because of an injury.  

And Danzing is out of Northern Dancer whom won the Kentucky Derby.

People seem to forget that The Factor not only won a six furlong race in UNDER 1:07 but beat the landslide winner of the San Felipe, Premier Pegasus, under a hand ride in 1:20.34, which by the way, translates into a 23 length lead over Uncle Mo's split in the Time Writer.

I look for The Factor winning in stakes record time and giving Bob Baffert his best chance in the Derby since, well, last year with Lookin At Lucky...

17 Mar 2011 9:30 PM
an ole rail bird

this race is what horse racing is all about. you lock up a gate full what everyone thinks is the best, & watch them out run each other. for my money, the factor goes the route, on the lead. with archarcharch ,in close 2nd. j p s gusto hooks them in the lane but cant stay hooked. alternation ,takes a hard run on the last end of it. see you @ the windows!!!

17 Mar 2011 9:33 PM
Quiet American 55

Sway Away over Elite Alex, The Factor, Alternation, over same plus Picko's Pride, JP's Gusto over all.

17 Mar 2011 9:56 PM
Oldie

Sway Away

Alternation

ArchArchArch

J P's Gusto

Elite Alex

The Factor

I think Baffert knows he has a sprinter but has to try - don't blame him a bit, and maybe it will be a better shot than I think.  Alternation and Sway Away should be very close at the end, and I could have it backwards.

And horse racing (especially 3-year-olds in March) being what it is, I could watch and feel like a real fool :)  One of the things that makes it fun.

17 Mar 2011 10:16 PM
Bushmaster

Can't underestimate Calvin Borel on his home track. Elite Alex will benefit from TF's early speed and win by a head over JPG and Alternation. Spring board for May magic, again with Calvin.

17 Mar 2011 10:30 PM
Pedigree Shelly

       I like JP's Gusto over The Factor in The Rebel Stakes . I just don't think either one will be a "Factor" The first Saturday in May :(

17 Mar 2011 11:01 PM
Zen's Auntie

I'm Guilty as anyone when it comes to adding ridiculous little monikers to a name but the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial?  Thats a mouthful.

Well now I guess Mo will go to the Wood and leave the rest of the good ones in the FL D. Rats and dog hair.  

Just think 2nd in the Wood means the whole Rebel purse (right?).  Appealing for dollar seekers, even to show - who's not afraid of big bad MO.

I admit I dont get the weight assignments all the time SRoy, like I see Blind luck carries less than two of the other fillys who seem not to be her equal even, it has something to do with last win or last race or something right?

17 Mar 2011 11:37 PM
marc munyan

Well i like

Dreaminofthewin because he reminds me of 1946 triple crown winner Assault Club-footed Comet.I just have a feeling that this race is full of speed and when you have tons of speed closers or horses that ran over the distances have better chance of finishing.They are many unknown in this race also alot of nw2  and nw3 runnning in this race kinda surprising but good to see we also see D W Lukas wow been a while who knows right.But  on a seriuos note we all know that the factor is fast and quick 1:06 scarey very scarey reminds me of artax.We know that baffert loves fast horses this horse i think will be a terror sprint champion later in the year.But speed cant keep going past a mile.Rabbit or not we will all see The Factor run.

my pic

Dreaminofthewin good story classy closer 10-1 or higher I will bet him win or place.

18 Mar 2011 12:34 AM
jayjay

I'm going with Elite Alex and ArchX3 with The Factor, Picko's Pride, J.P's Gusto and Sway Away.

I like Picko's Pride to fatten the payout, he ran in the Southwest thinking he's Zenyatta.  Kind of like her run in 2009's Classic, he was motoring on the inside, had to steady a bit on the final turn then had to swing about 3 or 4 out to get a clear path and finished full of run.  I'm hoping he'll get a decent post and be a little closer which makes him a live longshot to hit the board IMO.  He ran at 70-1 last time lol.  I might even put money on him and bet him across the board :)

I agree with Footlick's assessment of The Factor, it's really Garcia who will be the factor in the race.  This guy is seriously good and knows how to ride regardless of the horses' running style, very good at adapting to the horse.

18 Mar 2011 12:37 AM
ZJ

I hope Sway Away comes through in this one! I actually like both of the Afleet Alex progeny in this race. Elite Alex as well.

Good luck this weekend to everyone.

Off topic a bit, does anyone know the status of filly Devil May Care? Just wondering how she is doing, if anyone knows? Thanks so much!

18 Mar 2011 1:13 AM
GoldenBroom

On Mickey's comment...Run the Factor as a Rabbit for Jaycito...I'm not for "rabbits" but that's a great strategy especially since if - and it's a big IF - the Factor wins or hits the board, his owners may get Derby Fever and then Baffert may pull a Lukas and just  "have to run him to please the owners" while he still potentially benefits at the winning trainer or another horse. Great to see not only how the horses but the trainers play out the spring campaigns...good stuff!!!

18 Mar 2011 9:47 AM
GoldenBroom

Sorry, maybe I'm over thinking this but Baffert certainly must thinking  if Mo gets the lead in the Derby he could pull a War Emblem (Baffert trained) and go wire to wire...The Factor could hook him and perhaps tire him out...brilliant. Sad but brilliant.

18 Mar 2011 9:52 AM
chalkster

The Factor will win this by double figure lengths. 1:10 6f GONE

Chalk

18 Mar 2011 9:57 AM
The Rock

This is how I'm going to be playing the Rebel with a $20 bankroll:

Archarcharch & Sway Away/Archarcharch, Alternation, JP's Gusto, The Factor, Caleb's Posse, Sway Away, Elite Alex, Picko's Pride. $1 Exa =$14. $1 Exa Sway Away with all of the above less The Factor. = $6. The Factor is a nice sprinter, but I'll let him try to beat me at low odds in this one. I think Archarcharch & Sway Away will get first run on the back marker's. I like JP's Gusto as I had him on top with Archarcharch, and after watching the replay, he wasn't really making a threatening move to the latter once he got clear. Although Jason you can make the arguement that AAA got the jump on JPG and if they moved at the same time, it could've been different. And my pocket would've been fatter. I just really don't like the way Ramon Dominguez rides. He's got this lean turning for home and it drives me crazy that he can't get a horse to switch leads.

I think The Factor can win if able to relax but that last work he had is discouraging. 6f's in 1:12 and a mile in 1:38. He really shut down the engines that last quarter. Not only that, Saez's horse on the outside Glint needs to clear from there which means he'll have to show more speed, which means The Factor will be running faster early than he wants too.

18 Mar 2011 10:41 AM
The Rock

Guy's lets get real, there is no way in Baffert's right mind that he would use The Factor as a rabbit for Jaycito. Different owners for 1 thing, and secondly he would not risk the career of a top sprinter just so that he can act as a rabbit. Fog City Stable would have to be paid a huge sum of money to risk their horse as a rabbit and the last I heard Zayat stables are still paying off a court order debt. The Derby has never had trouble lacking speed in its race and its not going to end this year.

18 Mar 2011 10:46 AM
Footlick

ZJ- the last I heard she was still battling Hepatitis.

18 Mar 2011 11:06 AM
2:24

I think the Rebel will be one hell of a prep for The Arkansas Derby sponsored by Carl's Jr.  That ought to be a great race, much better than the Poulan Weedeater Blue Grass Stakes.  Of course, we would all like to see Mo stay in Florida for a potential epic run at the Joe's Crab Shack Florida Derby.  Me, I'm also excited to see PrePeg clean house in The Santa Anita Derby sponsored by Universal Pictures Predators v. Freddy v. Aliens v. Jason

18 Mar 2011 11:12 AM
Aaron McCinci

Im sure The Factor is sick fast, but any evaluation of his speed has to factor in the surface on which he has displayed it.  Im curious to see how Blind Luck fairs on a fairer track, having been unable to get by Always a Princess on the lead twice at Santa Anita.  But, we probably dont need that as a gauge of how Santa Anita forms and running styles will translate.  Im inclined to go against The Factor here, not simply because he cant rate, but because of SAs speed bias ... That said, I love to see speed hold - something about a free running horse wiring a field at a route that gets me.  And then there's the stellar connections that give him more than a shot ... It would surprise me to see the Factor go all the way, but I'll be excited to see him try ...

18 Mar 2011 11:40 AM
Red'sRoundTable

Rooting highly for................... J P's Gusto, as for Devil May Care as Footlick said she is still battling with hepatitis and is still now.

18 Mar 2011 11:51 AM
Jason Shandler

Dreaminofthewin and Glint have been scratched from the race.

18 Mar 2011 12:12 PM
Zen's Auntie

Its hard to not like the Factor his conformation is to die for another really active strong front end and handy too. His walk is just sexy. And in such a beautiful wrapper.  

Baffert knows what hes doing he must like him alot to pick this spot for him. I liked his take on th eexpiriment - if it works great if not we'll just go kick butt in shorts...

Indeed a tough spot to take two for the first but its kinda funny see us taking on a mile and a 1/16 "stretching out" what ever will we see in the Belmont??

Certainly they all wont need a bus for a mile and a half will they?

The Factor might be more than a sprinter by todays terms.  I remember another fast handsom young colt - set some track records on hard sandy in shorts in fl I think and then even won well out to 9 furlings but couldnt pull it together consistantly for the classic distance of 10.  Still a helluva horse though.

Maybe the Factors niche is just like that handsome fella - maybe hes best at a mile and even great at a mile & a 1/16th and on a good day when it carries and you dont have to fight, stop, start again and just mixitup with 12 to 20 other  1200 pounders - he could get 10 in the right company. Thats when the want to comes in - can he refocus? can he listen to a good jock and shake it off and think on his feet.

I wish I could see The Factor live his demeanor just looks very composed in the clips off track - the kids immediately commented and said he looked so calm.  

Even though I think A cubed is the best bet (maybe not cuz lots of folks seem to be using him)  and I like to root for him, I it would tickle me pink if the Factor could pull this off.  

18 Mar 2011 12:39 PM
Zen's Auntie

Giggling at 2:24

18 Mar 2011 12:40 PM
djanuary

There has been alot said about The Factor not being able to get the distance because of his speed, however a significant number of races at 1 1/16 mi. are won by front runners. If this horse rates the race is over "period". As far as the others are concerned JP has the back class and should be in a great position to get a piece.  Afleet Alex has disappointed twice and I don't see him in the money.

18 Mar 2011 12:44 PM
Karen in Texas

The Rebel looks to be the most exciting prep so far, and should answer some questions. I'm rooting for Sway Away, Archarcharch, Elite Alex, and Alternation. Would love to see Calvin and Elite Alex give a truly defining superior performance here--it's time to step it up. Not sure how The Factor will do on this track, but I agree with those saying Baffert will not use him as a rabbit in the Derby.

18 Mar 2011 12:44 PM
Mike Relva

Blind Luck - WINNING!!!!!!!!!!

18 Mar 2011 12:58 PM
Karen in Texas

2:24---That's funny.

18 Mar 2011 1:14 PM
LAZMANNICK

Blind Luck over Havre de Grace....

Sway Away

J.P.'s Gusto

Archarcharch

18 Mar 2011 2:26 PM
Forbidden Apple

SWAY AWAY= Power and Stamina

This horses power is unmatched, take a look back at the San Vicente, he appears to be jogging while blowing by his competition. The best is yet to come! The 5/2 morning line is way to low, I am left with straight exactas over ArchArchArch & The Factor.

18 Mar 2011 2:47 PM
Zenyatta John

The Factor is un - rateable speed, he will go 44 and 1:09 - there is no way he will rate.

He won't be around at the finish. Just remember last week when Runflatout was eased in his two turn debut after using his un-controllable speed.

Alternation should blow past these down the stretch, especially with the fractions up front.

18 Mar 2011 2:49 PM
Draynay

Sway Away looks like the winner here with Gomez aboard.  Gomez won it last year and should have a more experienced horse this time out.  Sway Away is only going to love more distance and should be flying late.  The Factor won't be a factor in the race late.  Cal Nation running in the third race Saturday could be very interesting. Should he win by 4 or 5 how do you keep him out of a Derby prep race?  He is going up against some experienced horses but I feel he may be much the best. Go Cal !

18 Mar 2011 2:53 PM
-Keelerman

I have the suspicion that Picko's Pride may end up being underbet. He ran a huge race in the Southwest Stakes, dropping way back after checking off the heels of Elite Alex yet still rallying to be beaten less than four lengths. I believe that he is capable of winning on Saturday.

-Keelerman

18 Mar 2011 2:54 PM
The Rock

Well there's go The Factor's pace pressure who was Glint. Maybe Ramon will lay closer.........?

18 Mar 2011 3:27 PM
Rebel Rebel

One thing for sure this race will not be run like the Timely Writer where the lead horse was allowed a pace so slow you could have gone faster pushing a wheelchair through a foot of mud.

Remembering that this race is only 1 1/16 It is concievable that speed will hold up and the Factor will be there at the finish. This isn't 1 1/4 miles and horses like RA have shown in the past that although they weren't ever going to win at that distance they could carry speed shorter. J.P.'s Gusto with Ramon up is going to be tough in here. I like sway Away to close into the finish.

It's time for Elite Alex to poop or get off the pot so he will be fully cranked to take advantage of the Factors blazing pace if he's good enough. If he doesn't win or finish within a length of second forget about it. We'll see his best, just a question if it's good enough to go on.

18 Mar 2011 3:36 PM
LAZMANNICK

I hope they take their time with Cal Nation.  Who knows how good he could be.  All I hope is that we get a chance to see it without them rushing him.

18 Mar 2011 3:36 PM
mr pibb

draynay's pickin a California horse to win the Rebel? I guess the color of his sky changed again today. On top of that he's all over a horse called Cal Nation? Maybe there is a small chance of hope for him afterall. NOT!!  

18 Mar 2011 4:07 PM
Jason Shandler

Cal Nation, as in Calipari nation.

18 Mar 2011 4:09 PM
Zen's Auntie

Who can give me a broad hopeful list for the RWNYC Wood I would like to study on them... Thank you...

18 Mar 2011 4:13 PM
The Rock

Zenyatta John,

Runflatout was pressed like crazy on the front end running those fraction. I've seen horses go as fast and still win b/c they were left alone on the lead. When dealing with quality horses that are alone on the lead, sometimes it doesn't matter how fast their going. As long as they have a rhythm going, they can stay.

18 Mar 2011 4:58 PM
Trebloc

Looking forward to seeing Cal Nation on Saturday.  Winstar will take their time with him, now that they have a derby trophy.

DRF is reporting that Runflatout is off the derby trail and emerged from the race with concern over the stifle, (whatever that means) and that his next race may be the Derby Trail.

Playing: Sway Away, The Factor and Alternation.

18 Mar 2011 5:19 PM
JAJ

John,

I hate to be picky, but horses are sired BY stallions and are OUT of mares.

The Factor is BY War Front, not out of War Front.

18 Mar 2011 5:29 PM
Jason Shandler

Runflatout was on the Derby trail?

18 Mar 2011 6:26 PM
Zen's Auntie

Apparently the DRF thought so, oh those crazy journalists.

Stifle is analogus to your kneecap where the tibia comes up to meet the femur I belive -help us out here Dr's. - Just below the flank above the hock and gaskin - just like a knee the cartlidge here can easily become inflamed and some critters hyperextend it a bit in full lunging stride.

18 Mar 2011 6:53 PM
Trebloc

Jason,

Of course Runflatout was on the Derby Trail.  Runflatout made Watchmaker's top ten list, he was a TDN rising star, Jeff Bloom was hyping him on HRTV, HRTV cameras followed Runflatout around for a morning w/o and a WP partner bet some big money on him in the furture bet.    What am I missing?  HA!

18 Mar 2011 6:59 PM
Jason Shandler

Silly me. A maiden sprint winner at Daytona Speedway. Of course I should have him on my Derby radar!

18 Mar 2011 7:12 PM
Zookeeper

Careful there... no making fun of my horse, even if my fraction is real small!!! :)

18 Mar 2011 7:53 PM
RAFritz

The Factor looks strong here. He'd better get his big win here, because he won't see another field this paceless from here on out.

18 Mar 2011 8:04 PM
jayjay

Jason : Who are in your derby radar ? Besides UM, who are your top 5 ?  Don't worry, we won't hold you to it, just wondering what kind of radar you have lol.

I'm not liking ArchX3 on the damn rail, I'll still play him as I think he's got a good tactical speed but I'll play Picko's Pride more now, I like his post and I'm hoping Ocampo will have him a little closer tomorrow.

18 Mar 2011 8:29 PM
Jason Shandler

Not making fun at all. He's a fast colt and should win a lot of races. But he was never a Derby threat and Im not sure why the decisions makers rushed him into the San Felipe. Im even more perplexed as to why some writers bought into it.

18 Mar 2011 8:30 PM
Jason Shandler

Not crazy about too many this year to be honest with you. Mo is way ahead of everyone else as far as Im concerned. I do like Jaycito and Soldat some, and Silver Medallion as a real longshot. Nothing in Louisiana or Arkansas excites me. Not a Dialed In fan. Havent given up on THAS either, but they are all chasing Mo.

18 Mar 2011 8:37 PM
furlongs

Look everyone watch this if you want to see Draynay when Uncle Mo ran last...

www.youtube.com/watch

18 Mar 2011 8:57 PM
Zookeeper

Jason- How about that, we agree on something! :)

18 Mar 2011 9:01 PM
Jason Shandler

lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Congrats Furlongs. You win the blog comment of the year!

18 Mar 2011 9:02 PM
Mike Relva

Regarding The Factor,many said War Emblem couldn't carry his speed either and he went on to win two legs of the Triple Crown.

18 Mar 2011 9:46 PM
Ranagulzion

Zookeeper,

Runflatout is a talented colt. He should improve by leaps and bounds off his last race and if ridden from off the pace next time he'll be very dangerous.  Being a grandson of AP Indy, the Derby comes up too soon for him but he could enter the reckoning in mid-season.  Good luck.

In the Rebel, the class horse has things all his own way and should win handily under smooth handling from Martin Garcia.  I like Caleb's Posse to put in a big performance ahead of the consistent JP Gusto and the plodder, Elite Alex.  It will be interesting to see if Sway Away's last race was just a flash-in-the-pan.  Apart from The Factor (a possible pace influence in the Derby), I see nothing more than an interesting field of pretenders in the Rebel.

18 Mar 2011 10:41 PM
predict

The Factor , now this may sound a little scary, should be improving in only his second start this year. I think Baffert knows fully well what he has here, and makes the move to Oaklawn to test him on a different surface. If this was only a two turn test he could have kept him in California for that. He keeps his number one jock on him, indicating this is his Derby hopeful. The Factor is a half to Soldat, who many have in their Derby top five at this point.

 Only Uncle Mo has Beyer's to compare with The Factor, and I think no one else can run with these two guys that we have seen yet.

The Factor has shown he can run on a dry or a wet track, maybe preferring a dry track, but being good enough to excel on a wet track, which he may not have liked as much.

Love to see this horse's will to win races, and his overall sturdiness, both are things you can't teach a horse.

We've all seen young horses that display greatness at the sprint distances, but falter when stretched out, and no one can be sure till they try it. Don't bet the house just yet, but I sure like this guy's chances. If I hadn't seen another great young horse named, King Glorius, fail at his first attempt at a route, I would say there's no chance no one here beats The Factor, but with that said, if anyone does beat him , it will be Sway Away.

18 Mar 2011 10:48 PM
Paula Higgins

OMG I can't stop laughing!!!! Fulrongs that was absolutely hysterical!!!! Sorry Draynay but this is too funny. However, I think from the looks of his apartment this guy is single (and darn likely to remain so too).

18 Mar 2011 11:20 PM
furlongs

Thanks jshandler!! LOL

18 Mar 2011 11:55 PM
Zenyatta John

I realize Runflatout was pressed last week in those blazing fractions. But The Factor will run those fractions all by himself as he runs one way - balls out fast. He can not be rated. He is uncontrollable speed.

The Factor will not win the Rebel.

19 Mar 2011 12:02 AM
Kris

WPS - Alternation

19 Mar 2011 12:12 AM
John

JAJ,

You're absolutely right. My mistake.

19 Mar 2011 12:21 AM
cat thief

Factor, sway away, alternation

19 Mar 2011 1:14 AM
jayjay

"wait for it...wait for it....wait for it... "

I wonder if that's actually Draynay...I think the dude likes Uncle Mo.  They need the 911 on speed dial if UM wins that prep race in Aqueduct with the really long name.

19 Mar 2011 3:32 AM
GunBow

I try to catch myself when I'm being a homer, but in the case of the Rebel I think the Cali shippers are simply superior to the Arkansas based runners.  The Factor and Sway Away enter the Rebel off a highly rated race, the San Vicente, a race that has already produced the romping San Felipe winner.  Based on speed and talent, they are just better.

However, The Factor and Sway Away certainly have holes in their resumes, namely a lack of two turn experience.  The ability of The Factor to go 2-turns is obviously the big question in the Rebel.  While I don't see The Factor getting 10 furlongs, 8.5 furlongs is another matter.

It's easy to look at the 13 second final eighth of the San Vicente and conclude that The Factor was tiring at 7 furlongs and thus he has no shot at 8.5 furlongs.  Yet, keep in mind he had run a half in 43 and change and 6 furlongs in 107 and 1, the same time horses like Euroears and Apriority ran for final times at 6 furlongs this meet.  I don't care how fast the track is, a horse is going to get tired after running 6 furlongs in 107 and 1.

What's interesting about The Factor is that his maiden win was actually moderate early and very fast late.  In that 106 and 4 record setting run, The Factor ran his first half in a comfortable 44+, and then skipped his next 2 eighths in 11 and change for both; so, when given a more moderate pace, he was able to finish.

Well, in the Rebel, The Factor is going to get what to him will feel like an unimaginably slow pace.  Even if he has to go 46 and change, something that he might not have to do given the lack of other pure speed horses, The Factor will be in cruise mode.  That should allow him to conserve something for the stretch.

The main potential problem for The Factor is if he will get rank when asked to go that slow.  Like I wrote, The Factor won't have to go sub-46, but if he's rank and pulling, he might decide to do so anyways.  The maiden win indicates The Factor can rate, but some of his works and Baffet's comments suggest there is still some doubt.

On a pure talent level, Sway Away is the only horse I believe is good enough to beat The Factor in this spot.  In fact, before Sway Away left for Arkanasas, he was up with PrePeg and Jaycito as my top Derby prosepcts in Cali.  Sway Away's breeding suggests he should be able to transfer his explosiveness to two turns, and one would think he's only going to be better for the Rebel after making his first start in 6 months in the San Vicente.  It's happened before that a late running sprinter fooled us into believing he was a true Derby prospect(Pyro), but I'm leaning towards the view that Sway Away is the real deal.

Of the Arkansas horses, I like another former Cali horse, JP's Gusto, best.  I agree with Jason that he was best in the Soutwest, and lost his chance at the victory when Arch X3 got the jump on him.  10 furlongs is probably out of JP's range, but he's already twice gr.1 placed at 8.5 furlongs.

The Arkansas horse I fear most is Alternation, mainly because I'm not as familiar with him.  Arch x3 and Elite Alex are solid horses, but I just don't think the Soutwest was a strong race, which is why the allowance horse Alternation scares me more.

19 Mar 2011 4:59 AM
GunBow

Keep an eye on Mildly Offensive in the Santa Paula Stakes on Sunday.  She could join Turbulent Descent as the horses to beat in the Test.

19 Mar 2011 5:01 AM
Don from PA/DE

Thanks Jason, just reading this dialogue, my feeling a closer will win this race,especially if early speed continues,so JPG, Elite Alex and Alternation and Archar should be in contention late, but my real longshot here, very unlikely to win but hit the board if race falls apart is JW Blue, take a look at his Oct 10 race at DP, I was there and his closing kick in this race was amazing, I spoke to the Equibase/McCoy after and he agreed, it was one of the most impressive closings I saw since Scottish Halo at this track about 10 yrs ago. He is primed and if he improves and hits the board I would be happy, not totally surprised, been following him since that Oct race He will have to beat some of the best though! No question there.

19 Mar 2011 7:31 AM
Joe Alva

This is an intriguing race that will be dictated by The Factor's ability or lack thereof to carry his blazing speed around two turns.

Many, including The Factor if he is effective at the task, have a shot to take it.  I would not be surprised to see an improving longshot sneaking into the mix to provide a decent exotics payoff.  

It will be interesting to see what the Beyer or Brisnet figures wind up being for the top finishers of this race and compare them to what the eilte three year olds in Florida and California have produced thus far.  If they are comparable, this is a race that will merit taking a good glance at in retrospect since the banging and congestion that will take place in this 12 horse field will simulate some of what will happen on Derby Day and give us a bit of an indication as to who can mentally handle that and who cannot.

Good luck at the windows!

19 Mar 2011 9:30 AM
nickie

my vote...Alternation....has done nothing wrong, ran with Elite Alex, who if gets a trip can do some damage in here. Alternation has worked well since last, and jock who knows the oval. Stayin local here with the Alternation and Elite Alex

19 Mar 2011 9:57 AM
draynot

Furlongs, that is so awesome!! Blogger of the year has been clinched by that single entry. Finally something everyone on this blog can agree on. LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The only thing missing is the spiddle flying out of his mouth, running down his chin, and wiener dogs yapping and nipping at his heels when he goes nuts.

19 Mar 2011 10:20 AM
TomHomes

Picko's Pride is going to run huge!

19 Mar 2011 10:43 AM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 Elite Alex is going to be scratched from the Rebel and train up to the Ark. derby. Sway Away shows he is the real deal today. His last work was the fastest 7 furlong work at SA this meet. I think he is going to pass the Factor in the last 100 yds and it will be a stone cold exacta that won't pay much. I agree with Gunbow that Alternation is the wild card today. I think I'm going to pass on betting this race and just watch for fun.

If that really is Draynay in the video it's apparent that he is way past his football playing days.

19 Mar 2011 11:22 AM
Jargon Police

Predict,

A half or full sibling is from the same dam, not the same sire.  Two horses sired by the same stallion are just two horses sired by the same stallion.  They are never referred to as brothers or sisters to each other.  They aren't even family.

19 Mar 2011 12:41 PM
Zen's Auntie

Wow the 3rd @ tampa bay gave me chills! con chaser going 1/5th off the 6.5f track record in an allowance race – none of them older horses showed much quit whata tingle!

19 Mar 2011 1:29 PM
Zen's Auntie

24K allowance mind you and his name - was Conchacer.  Nice.

Hey who knows whats going on with Gourmet Dinner?  hes been shipped to a farm in Ocala? why?  

19 Mar 2011 2:01 PM
Zen's Auntie

“I don’t think you necessarily have to have the absolute very best horse out of the 3 year old crop - I think you gotta have the best horse on the 1st Saturday in May and probably have better luck than anybody else.”  

Bill Mott on preparing To Honor and Serve for the FD and on to the KD.  

I like Gomez  on him now. He’ll be on 3 real races back,  if he just doesn’t draw an inside post maybe TH&S will be able to do it for Mott.  I cant wait for the FD

Tough race for Cal Nation. Dance City was GAME in 136.93 huh? gosh, hope no one lost to that kind of chalk...

19 Mar 2011 2:32 PM
2:24

Cal Nation not that impressive today but still may be a good horse in the future.

I thought Elite Alex was going to the Louisiana Derby.

Think Gomez is riding his Derby horse in the 10th today at Oaklawn.

19 Mar 2011 2:52 PM
no mo mo

Another draynay "lock" bites the dust. Cal Nation couldn't win in a 1:37 mile in a small field. No excuses, not good enough. I'd love to see draynay video of that race.  

Uncle Mo will not win the KY DERBY!! I'll keep saying it so when he gets whipped I can cram the headlines down draynay's yapper.  

19 Mar 2011 3:03 PM
draynays better half

Who snuck the video cam into my man's isolation room?

19 Mar 2011 3:09 PM
furlongs

See isn't this great we now get to rumor what the "great" Draynay looks like! Even if its not him, its still fun to just picture it in our heads as he rambles on and on about how many winners he picks! Nice pick on Cal Nation btw and at 1-5 getting beat at the wire was VERY satisfing to many in this blog I bet. Once again proves that he can only handicap deep enough to find the chalk in the race. I mean anyone to even come on any horseracing blog and tout Cal Nation just shows what we are dealing with. Take care everyone and good luck at the windows. Furlongs

19 Mar 2011 4:37 PM
Zen's Auntie

2:24 really you think Sway Away for the KD for GOGO?  interesting...

I was watching SwayA's videos and read a blurb about his swayback and knee chip.  Its weird how he runs so heads up.  I always thought Blind Luck ran wicked heads up for such good closer maybe GG is perfect for SwayA, same kinda run headset.

Sorry if he became the chalk but Bandbox looked good today WINNING  dont you all think?

19 Mar 2011 5:26 PM
thomas

furlongs

lmao great vid. how bout cal nation getting beat by a city zip lol

looks like ill take Archarcharch

19 Mar 2011 6:01 PM
LAZMANNICK

Hilda’s Passion……wow.  She broke two track records today, but will only get credit for one, Big Drama’s 1.20.88 in the 2009 Swale, when she ran the Inside Information in 1.20.45.  In this race she also outran Big Drama’s current 6F mark at GP of 1.08.12 set in this year’s Mr. Prospector, when she ran the first 6F of the inside Information in 1.07.96.  Congrats to all her connections including her trainer, the one that can’t train, what’s his name again, oh yeah, Todd Pletcher.

19 Mar 2011 6:09 PM
Johnny

ARCHARCHARCH that is my bet.

I totally thru out the factor betting his speed does not carry..

19 Mar 2011 6:14 PM
tcc

Late scratch: Elite Alex, trainer didn't like post, says he probably point to Louisiana Derby.

19 Mar 2011 6:37 PM
Jean in Chicago

Predict:  

Don't bother getting caught up in the jargon.  Biologically, any offspring of the same mother and father are full sibs; any sharing one parent (mother or father) are half sibs.  But the governing bodies can set up any definitions they want and thems the rules.  I seem to remember there is something about if 2 horses have all the same grandparents, they're considered related, but don't quote me on this.  You can check with the Jockey Club if you really care.

But please don't restart this argument.  A while back it went on for weeks.

19 Mar 2011 6:44 PM
LAZMANNICK

Cal Nation will be okay.  It's tough to run against the GP front running bias and even though he got a nose in front after going wide around much of the turn, the winner, which lead throughout, was by no means finished and had much the better of it in the race.

Another thing in Cal Nation's favor is now that he has a loss, Draynay will probably jump ship (I hear he wants to concentrate on his YouTube career), and the Draynay curse will be gone, at least for one race.

19 Mar 2011 6:52 PM
skyfire

Furlongs--too much!  

The Factor -- speedy dude will win it all! Will represent California well, just like my Bruins!

19 Mar 2011 6:58 PM
2:24

Wow, The Factor looks like he really did that easy.

19 Mar 2011 7:21 PM
tcc

The Factor will be no factor in this race.  He is running on a real track and will find his speed is not enough.

Draynay 17 Mar 2011 3:41 PM

Draynay,WHO WON??

19 Mar 2011 7:24 PM
skyfire

Baffert is genius...so much for Bruins.  Go Kansas!

19 Mar 2011 7:31 PM
Footlick

Yeah- Dray cursed Cal Nation with his relentless hype.  But the horse still looks to be a nice one.   And The Factor seemed to stretch out just fine.  As I thought, if he set a reasonable pace he could get at least 8.5 furlongs.  And he wasn't tiring at the end which was nice also.  Nice race and nice stretch out.  What about that Asmussen 3 yr old ridden by Mike Smith.  Maclean's Song?  Nice race, easy win, fast time.  Let's hope they take their time with him.

19 Mar 2011 7:32 PM
John

I called it.  Even though it wasn't stakes record time he sure looked like his great grandfather (Northern Dancer) today.

This horse is the real deal.

Hopefully, he will get a better post position than Lookin At Lucky received in the Derby last year.

19 Mar 2011 7:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

Baffert didn’t look overly excited about The Factor’s win in The Rebel.  He said he was blowing pretty good when he came back and when asked what his next might be he said they just might come back for the Arkansas Derby.  I get the feeling that The Factor exceeded his expectations and they are going to go with him as far as he will go.  I thought he was done when they lined up four across at the top of the stretch and it looked like he might stop, but he found another gear and took off with Garcia hitting him maybe four times with the whip.  His time was just off Havre de Grace’s in what turned out to be an easy win.  What happened to JP’s Gusto and Sway Away who tried to make a move from way back but didn’t close much on any of them?

19 Mar 2011 7:39 PM
thomas

Down at gulfstream the maiden winner Cal Nation is upsetted in a NWx1. could this mean he's overrated? The Factor pulls away in the final furlong to win the G2 rebel stakes beating rivals jp's gusto, archarcharch and sway away. could this mean he's the real deal? And Later draynay explains why The Factor will be a non Factor come derby day and what Uncle Mo will have to say about this performance. Caution!!! Your about to enter the no spin zone, The Factor begins right now.

19 Mar 2011 7:45 PM
Draynay

After everyone jumped out of this race there wasn't much left.  The Factor didn't look that fast and set modest fractions.  None of the horses he beat will be in Kentucky.  This only makes Uncle Mo look that much better.  There really is nothing in his way for the Triple Crown.

19 Mar 2011 7:59 PM
AnneM

I am thinking that all the horses will be chasing the Factor in the Derby.

I remember when Winning Colors wired the field and people said she couldn't get the mile and a quarter.

19 Mar 2011 8:00 PM
stevebiscuit

"The Factor will be no factor in this race.  He is running on a real track and will find his speed is not enough.  I haven't looked at the race yet but I have to think Sway Away will be tough here.  Cal Nation is running Saturday and he is better than all these horses anyway.  Go Cal."

What say you now Draynay? Cal Nation just got beat in an allowance race and The Factor just dominated the Rebel after setting quick fractions. No doubt that he's a 2 turn horse! Nice job picking Sway Away by the way! Uncle Mo is gonna have some company up front and this time it'll be from a horse that won't back down! It doesn't hurt that he's trained by the best Derby trainer in the nation. From a pace standpoint it was way more impressive than Uncle Mo has done and the horse is still improving. Looks like Baffert's California horses are once again going to be a huge Derby "factor"!

19 Mar 2011 8:03 PM
furlongs

Hey Everyone NOW you seen what Draynay can do to horses!! Anyone still want Uncle Mo seeing DRAYNAY says he can't lose the Derby and Triple Crown?? DRAYNAY is like putting a curse on a horse. He touts two horses on this blog for today. Sway Away and Cal Nation, and not only that he says The Factor will be no factor and can not run that far. WOW is this guy good or what?? LOL Nice pickin DRAYNAY! Your the best guy...

19 Mar 2011 8:06 PM
StonesRoy

The Factor looked real good, butif he was blowing hard after that race, how is he gonna do carrying 9 more pounds going an extra 3/16ths mile in the Derby? (if he goes, that is).

Interesting that the 2 horses who were carrying the added 5 lbs came in 2nd and 3rd.  I liked how AAA finished considering he was a bit rank and had to be held back on the backstretch.  CP ran a good race as well.

Too bad about Alternation and the late scratch.  I quickly cancelled my bets on TVG when I saw how hot he was in the post parade.  I thought he had a chance until I saw that.

19 Mar 2011 8:07 PM
Draynay

Cal Nation looked good.  He got nipped at the wire but he was giving up a lot of experience to most of the horses in the race.  I expect him to only get better.  Tough loss.

19 Mar 2011 8:08 PM
LAZMANNICK

thomas

Maybe Draynay will give us a YouTube encore……slip The Factor's race in, in place of Uncle Mo's, change the script so that instead of yelling for Uncle Mo he's yelling for The Factor.  I can just hear him now telling us how he's been touting The Factor all along and then saying oh yeah BTW, Cal Nation who?

19 Mar 2011 8:12 PM
Trebloc

Must be nice being the lone speed in a race, let alone a derby prep.  With 126 lbs on The Factor's back he's cooked come Derby day.  Baffert now has his rabbit for Jaycito.  

Cal Nation will be just fine.  

Off topic but, does anyone know why Mike Watchmaker is nolonger on Blinkers off?  

19 Mar 2011 8:28 PM
The Rock

Gunbow,

Agree with your thoughts of Mildly Offensive. Just took a look at the pp's for that race. She's going to have a tough time with California Nectar cutting back. It's tough giving up that type of experience. The positives are that she's on the outside, she's working great after her debut and should be in prime position to tackle California Nectar. Could be those two all the way, but I will give California Nectar the edge for tomorrow.

19 Mar 2011 8:32 PM
Zen's Auntie

Wow, nice wire to wire win for the speed horse who looked anything but tired at the finish - blowing hard was he?  The Factor sure made it look easy, if it wasnt you'd never know it.  on to the AD!

I thought it was game of Arch3x to hang in there for 3rd.  But it appears my little buddy is not in the same class as the winner

19 Mar 2011 8:40 PM
John

Bob Baffert said this after the race..."It's clear that he (The Factor) could of run a mile and an eighth today...".

19 Mar 2011 8:41 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY?? Your saying The Factor won the race because of the scratches! Are you serious?? What horse that was sratched was going to cause The Factor to run early fractions faster then he did?? Your pick was up the track simple as that. I mean the only thing worse then picking two bums and touting them is having dumb excuses when they lose. You even said Cal Nation was better then anything in the Rebel!! LOL man your stuff is strong! I mean Cal Nation couldn't beat a stable mate that runs 1 1/8 in 1:51 are your for real?? I am no fan of The Factor and I do not think he will go the Derby Distance with pressure, but he looked like a easy winner on paper based on pace. Do you read the DRF?? Bris maybe?? Heck at least buy a tip sheet! I mean for all the attitude you give on this blog seems to me you dont back it up well when you actually tell people who you like BEFORE the race. Please if your wrong your wrong we all are in this game alot more then we wish we were not. But at least do not come with sorry excuses that don't add up with what was going on in the race. You will earn respect in these blogs and it will be no big deal when your wrong like we all are time to time. Furlongs

19 Mar 2011 8:47 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Congrats for picking The Factor. Wait,that was me wasn't it? lol Not bad for a CA horse. BTW I LIKED HOW YOU SPUN IT AFTER HE PROVED YOU WRONG. JUST ONCE ADMIT WHEN YOU CRASH AND BURN!

19 Mar 2011 8:50 PM
predict

Jargon police,

 I agree, a half is from the same dam, traditionally, I stand corrected.

Jean in Chicago,

Thankyou, I didn't know that this had been tossed around before.

Nice first two turns for The Factor, and I'm sure he won't get all the respect he deserves, carrying 5 lbs. less than top rated competion, and considering he was tired and all after the race, and he doesn't have a pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and the horses that could have beat him were scratched, and so on and so on.

But I think he just gets better with this race in him, sure he was tired, he ran about 4/5th of a second faster than Lookin at Lucky did in last year's Rebel! Let me repeat that, he ran about 4/5th of second faster than Lookin at Lucky ran last year, that's a significant difference, considering last year Lucky looked like he was all out to get up at the finish. I'll excuse any horse that runs like that and shows to be tired after the race, remember, this was his first two turn race.

The picture for the Derby just gets more interesting with this race, since Uncle Mo will have his hands full if The Factor goes in the Derby.

19 Mar 2011 8:53 PM
mickey 1957

2:24,now what....baffert will run that rabbit,and mo will get sucked,into running closer to the factor than ,he should and it will,hurt his finish.

19 Mar 2011 8:57 PM
2:24

Mickey - if Baffert runs The Factor in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum brands, it won't be as a rabbit for another horse, it will be to win.  I admit I am shocked that he got the distance but he looked good today.

I think Mo is rateable enough to not get into a speed duel.  The question becomes whether he can catch the Factor and whether the Factor can carry his speed a la Slew.

Very disappointed in Sway Away and Alternation.

Looking to me more and more that Mo is the one to beat.  Beginning to agree with JS and Draynay that he is heads and tails above the rest of his generation.  He's got competition if The Factor can carry his speed 1.5 more furlongs though.

19 Mar 2011 9:16 PM
Mike Relva

FURLONGS

What are you saying? Didn't you know that DRAYNAY is NEVER wrong? lmao

19 Mar 2011 9:17 PM
Pedigree Shelly

      The Factor ran one heck of a race , he deserves to be in the "Top Five ". I don't know if it's just me but , it seems like every year we are calling certain horses the next coming of Seattle Slew , Secretariat , etc ... , and every year , another injury , another let down !! I think this sport needs people to dream , to hope , to want the next " Superstar " That's what keeps us going !!! I'd rather from now on call horses like Uncle Mo , Extremely talented and having a great future ahead of him , instead of comparing him to horses that have already achieved "greatness " !:)

19 Mar 2011 9:51 PM
mr pibb

draynay blows another weekend of picks. Same old, same old. Better luck next chalk. LOL!!

19 Mar 2011 9:57 PM
mickey 1957

the factor will be picking up 9 lbs in the derby,plus running 3/16,further,so he could be toast,but I think he will run other's down the track with him....and if they let him glide on top what then?

19 Mar 2011 9:59 PM
Matthew W

Mildly Offensive will be mildly winning tom--had Archarcharch win/show and boxed with Factor---well Baffert has Derby Pace--again--horse looked pretty good. he ran them off their feet, as they say--I like Gaines's filly tom.....

19 Mar 2011 10:08 PM
2:24

I like what Martin Garcia does on horses.  He seems to have a really good feel for his horses.  Like PVal when he's on the lead and Desormeaux when coming from behind.  Very impressive.

19 Mar 2011 10:45 PM
Johnny

Was wrong on this one..

Factor got a 1 1/16 going away.

So now in my book the whole derby pic changed..

It looks like their is going to be a hot pace..

A Giacomo K.D repeat?

Setting up for a Deep Closer?

19 Mar 2011 10:55 PM
Mike Relva

MICKEY 1957

I've been saying since Jan. The Factor might be better than some think he is.

19 Mar 2011 10:57 PM
Paula Higgins

Feeling pretty good. I picked The Factor. The next races Uncle Mo and The Factor run should tell us alot. So far so good for both of them.

19 Mar 2011 11:04 PM
Footlick

predict- Mr Baffert also said that Oaklawn is much deeper than Santa Anita and he thinks The Factor will get alot out of this race fitness-wise.

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves talking about The Factor in the Derby.  He looked good, he rebroke and seems to be similar to War Emblem.  But we have to let him take the next step.  Let's see the Arkansas Derby first.  And then, if he wins impressively again, then let's talk about the Derby.  But he set what were not quick fractions for him, but will be quick for others, relaxed and then kicked in and finished well.  It was a good first two-turn race.

19 Mar 2011 11:46 PM
Draynay

The Factor won but he was exposed for what he is.  He ran modest fractions and looked very tired at the end of the race.  He didn't look that fast outside of California and the clock doesn't lie.  He won the Rebel good for him but he is no Derby horse for sure.

19 Mar 2011 11:51 PM
Footlick

2:24- that will be the dilemma if The Factor continues to impress.  Can Mo afford to back off and let The Factor have his own way on the pace.  I mean that is what they did with War Emblem and he just kept going.  Do they risk letting The Factor go it alone up front?  We are getting ahead of ourselves though because The Factor need to get through the Arkansas Derby first.

20 Mar 2011 12:03 AM
trackjack

I commented back in December when The Factor broke his maiden with a NTR that he literally glided over the track, a very efficient and minimally pounding stride.  Today's win was as impressive as his maiden win and even if he was blowing a bit as Bob Baffert said, he was NOT shortening stride in the stretch.  If he comes back for the AD and wires the field again, this horse is a serious contender to wire the field on the first Saturday in May...Mo or No Mo.  

The Factor will not be outrun for the lead and the rider was able to gear him down a bit, a very promising sign.  Baffert has said that this horse wants to run and they are going to let him do his thing.  

I thought for a moment that Draynay jinxed my pick, Sway Away, but his trainer Jeffe Bond said he was roughed up and shuffled back on the first turn and never got a chance to run his race.  The video confirms.

Mo has to convince me, in the recently newly sponsered raised purse Wood Memorial, that he is back.  I hope he gets a field that can challenge him.  The FLA Derby will also begin to thin the herd.

Seven weeks to go!  

20 Mar 2011 12:07 AM
SPORTOFKINGS

MIKE RELVA IS RIGHT! THE FACTOR IS THE REAL DEAL. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY 15 YEARS OR SO A GRAY LIGHTNING KEEPS APPEARING ON AMERICAN RACE TRACKS. NATIVE DANCER,SPECTACULAR BID, HOLY BULL SKIP AWAY, AND NOW THE FACTOR. I AM ON HIS BAND WAGON FOR HE IS THE REAL DEAL. SILENCE AND GOER ALL OVER AGAIN. AFFIRMED AND ALYDAR, ALL OVER IF WE ARE THAT LUCKY.

20 Mar 2011 12:34 AM
CT

I think The Factor will win the Derby and maybe the Triple Crown.

20 Mar 2011 12:37 AM
John

Points to consider:

The winning time for the Rebel Stakes was .41 seconds faster than Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile (1:42.19-1:42.60).

JP's Gusto finished sixth behind The Factor today.

JP's Gusto finished seventh behind Uncle Mo in November.

The Factor has now beaten an accomplished field in two races this year.

20 Mar 2011 12:37 AM
Joe Alva

The Derby Trail just got a little more interesting with The Factor's ability to thrust his jets today around two turns!  

If he indeed goes in the Derby, he will have a great impact on the race!  Who will dare press him early on and still breathe beyond the far turn?  Who will allow that speed to go unchallenged up front and run the risk of reviving a Spend A Buck, Winning Colors or War Emblem scenario (all allowed to fly solo on the lead to capture the roses)?

Even if he cannot last the mile and a quarter, The Factor is the major factor in the Derby.  He may force the likes of Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Mucho Macho Man and others with decent speed to sit a bit closer to the lead than perhaps desired for fear that he does not become a runaway train who lands in the winner's circle.  This possible pace challenge may force the classy stalkers to cook up a bit more than originally thought (I have memories of an Uncle Mo monster-like Point Given being compromised by this in 2001 as a flying Monarchos blazed by him and the rest who sizzled up front).

So maybe, just maybe, Nick Zito, Julien Leparoux and a couple of  others behind quality closers might just be salivating a bit right now -- the may have finally found The Factor they were looking for to possibly win this thing!

20 Mar 2011 1:10 AM
snow

The Factor reminds me of Siphon.  You're damned if you run with him early and you're damned if you leave him alone early on the lead.  Jerry Bailey/Bill Mott faced this dilemma with Cigar versus Siphon in the Pacific Classic.  Uncle Mo/Velazquez/Pletcher will face this dilemma on May 7th versus The Factor.

20 Mar 2011 1:29 AM
furlongs

Once again DRAYNAY you say things that make you look like you have no idea what a racing form is!! The Factor didnt run fast that is what your saying??!! Wow do you know anything? He ran as fast as that 4 year SUPERSTAR Havre De Grace. She is a serious racehorse. And this was his first time around 2 turns. I thought his race was impressive overall and there is no doubt he could of got the 1 1/8 mile distance Saturday. Now that being said there is NO WAY I am betting The Factor come the first Sat in May, but you need to accept the fact he did what you said he could not do. Simple as that. You bet a horse that couldnt out gallop The Factor after the wire going 7 furlongs. I mean if you are going to come on here and act superior to others at least do your homework a little!! Stop hating on every 3 year old out there because you are in fear that Uncle Mo may not do what you hope he can do. To me I think this crop of 3 year olds has some overall better talent then in the last several years. Its early still but racing does not start and end with Uncle Mo. He is a nice horse that has a chance to Win the Ky Derby. BUT if you think other trainers are going to role over and give him the roses your crazy. There is some talent out there and if MO doesn't show he has taken a step forward as a 3 year old in the Wood he is in real trouble come Derby Day. Do I like Uncle Mo yeah do I like The Factor yeah I enjoy watching horses with true talent run NO matter what coast they are on. But in no way am I crowning Uncle Mo or The Factor for that matter the Derby winner until it all shakes out in the end and I see how all the horses are coming up to the race. I am on the backside EVERY morning about 10 days out from Derby and I can not wait for this years race. I think whatever happens we are in for a great Triple Crown series this Spring. There are no bad Ky Derby's and it is the greatest event in the world. Anyone who doesn't know about horseracing has no idea what they are missing. Draynay sit back enjoy yourself. Your going to be wrong more then you are right, but its ok just be thankful that you are lucky enough to have found the greatest sporting event played outdoors. I mean and whatever you do please so not let this weekend put a bad taste in your mouth. Please continue to blog telling us who has to win and who can not win. I mean people on here are counting on you to provide us this info so we know who to throw out!! LOL I mean to be honest Bloodhorse should be paying you your best tip sheet in town buddy. Just put an X on your pics and man this horseracing stuff gets a little easier!! I am out. Take care everyone, and good luck to all at the windows. Furlongs

20 Mar 2011 2:33 AM
GunBow

I'm a fan of Jerry Hollendorfer, and love the campaign he charted last year for Blind luck and Tuscan Evening.  However, he has been using the condition of the Santa Anita maintrack as an excuse for why some of his more high profile horses, inclduing Blind Luck, have been losing.

Hollendorfer's frustration with the track led him to scratch Indian Winter out of the San Vicente a few hours before the race was to be run, and to have Blind Luck skip the Santa Margarita.

In the case of Indian Winter, Hollendorfer sent him to a $50k race at Turf Paradise instead, and Indian Winter ran 3rd under the wire.  The move away from Santa Anita proved not to be the charm for Blind Luck either.  Beaten 3+ lengths by Always a Princess in both the El Encino and La Canada, Blind Luck was again beaten 3+ lengths in the Azeri, this time by arch-rival Havre de Grace.  So, it appears to me that it wasn't just the track that was getting Blind Luck beat at Santa Anita.

The irony is that had Blind Luck stayed in Cali for the Santa Margarita, she would have been the beneficiary of a pace meltdown that saw Miss Match rally for a shocking win.  The result of the Azeri only confirmed my belief that Hollendorfer erred in ducking out of the Santa Margarita.

20 Mar 2011 5:09 AM
GunBow

Matthew W:

Did you catch the El Primero del Ano Derby trials Fri night?

Wow, just some awesome performances.  Eddie Ray Vaughn won his trial flying late in 19.4 and looked like he hadn't run in the winners' circle.  Duke Kahanamoku won his trial in 19.43, a solid time even though he was under wraps late.  All this after Golden State Million Futurity winner, One Sweet Jess, won the first trial in a new track record of 19.11

The final should be awesome!

20 Mar 2011 5:24 AM
Rachel

There is nothing in TF's pedigree that says he has to be a sprinter...just his need to be on the lead...maybe a light dawned on marble head that not all races are short...he sure moves beautifully.

He's a great colt.

20 Mar 2011 9:04 AM
Rinzler

Looks like The Factor is going to give Uncle Mo a run for his money. It's Baffert. It's a front-runner.

And he just carried his speed further. The Factor is becoming more of a factor.

20 Mar 2011 9:08 AM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

The Factor hit another gear,or did you catch that? It's a common pattern you display,when a horse wins that you didn't pick you open up your excuse bag to find something. Good for you!

20 Mar 2011 10:22 AM
2:24

Jason - what are your thoughts on The Rebel?

20 Mar 2011 11:29 AM
Jason Shandler

The Factor was impressive for sure. Im still not sure how far he can carry his speed though. The Arkansas Derby will be the real test. If he can do the same thing at nine furlongs we will know he is the real deal. I will take a wait and see approach.

20 Mar 2011 11:38 AM
mickey 1957

modest,the factor ran 12-12&change the entire race,DRAYNAY what planet you from,you also said brethren would run in the florida derby,when in fact everyone know's,he's taking the same route as super saver.

20 Mar 2011 11:38 AM
Footlick

furlongs- spot on

Jason- I agree.  He looked great in the Rebel and has the speed to clear and then can get a breather and then he finished in a tick over 6.  His stride was not shortening.  Mr Baffert said he did get tired as Oaklawn is much deeper than Santa Anita, but The Factor was striding out beautifully at the finish.  But it was 8.5 furlongs, not 9 or 10.  We do have to wait and see how he handles the next hurdle.  He sort of reminds me of Black Tie Affair.

20 Mar 2011 12:14 PM
John T

The San Vicente form has worked

out very well with both Premier Pegasus and The Factor coming back

to run monster races of the first three home in that race.And as the old song says 2 out of 3 ain,t bad.

20 Mar 2011 12:14 PM
Zen's Auntie

Gunbow, that was an insightful analysis of Hollendorfers descision making process - I love plucky little Blind Luck. She doesnt seem the same this year. I hope she comes back to her old self.

This further illustrates the difficulty involved with keeping any horse, especially graded stakes horses, performing at the level required to win consistently.

On another note - I am root, root, rooting for Gio Ponti and Euroears and all the USA horses good luck and dont get hurt!!!

20 Mar 2011 12:16 PM
Mike Relva

SPORTOFKINGS

Thanks.

20 Mar 2011 12:38 PM
Point Given

CAUTION.You are entering a NO SPIN ZONE.The FACTOR's Butt Kicking Journey starts right now.

20 Mar 2011 12:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

Jason

I agree with you and from watching Baffert in his on-track post race interview I got the feeling he felt the same way, that he was surprised that Thre Factor won yesterday, not so much the win, but  the extra gear he found when they were lined up behind him at the top of the stretch ready to make a run at him.  This makes the Derby trail more interesting in one sense, but less interesting because of the failures of JP's Gusto, Sway Away and Archarcharch.  The second place finisher is improving, but doesn't appear to be a Derby horse.

20 Mar 2011 1:18 PM
LAZMANNICK

This is interesting, maybe the top three rated Derby contenders in Uncle Mo, The Factor and Soldat, all sired by stallions that are suspect when it comes to 10F G1 offspring.

20 Mar 2011 1:24 PM
Draynay

What I saw in the Rebel was a horse extended that will never be ready to run in the Arkansas.  It's going to take 3 weeks for The Factor just to get his legs back.  Will Baffert actually run him there?  I doubt it but if he does he will fold like a cheap suit when the real running begins.

20 Mar 2011 1:29 PM
Draynay

Pletcher has at least 4 horses that I know of that can beat The Factor at 2 turns so don't get too excited.  Earn a G1 win then tell me how good the horse is.

20 Mar 2011 1:30 PM
draynay

Dance City or Cal Nation to the Arkansas Derby ?

20 Mar 2011 1:34 PM
sodapopkid

Jason, although I was impressed with all of the well known races yesterday, I must say I was impressed with Mike Smith's ride above SSfarm's newbie in his maiden race yesterday, Maclean (Is what I'm calling him for short), He was great.....

WoW,  seeing MIke Smith in a Stonestreet Farm's silks....Mike is a great jockey this isnt the first time Asmussen has given Smith his mounts.......

20 Mar 2011 1:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

I‘m really beginning to wonder about the credibility of Beyers, the way they’ve been assigned lately.  I can see some inconsistencies with Santa Anita because of the recent switch back to dirt after a three year or so hiatus, but what really makes me wonder is the 108 assigned to Hilda’s Passion yesterday after she broke Big Drama’s 7F track record by 2/5ths of a second and in doing so also outran the 6F mark.

Big Drama received a 108 when completing his 7F Swale in 1.20.4, compared to Hilda’s 108 for running the distance in 1.20.2.  On the day that Big Drama set his track record the GP dirt track was much faster than yesterday with a 7F race run in under 1.22 and it was also the day that Quality Road got his 111 for setting the track record in his 9F Florida Derby.  Yesterday the GP surface was slower, Hilda’s Promise ran the distance 2/5ths of a second or 2 lengths faster and she should have been given 4 points more which would give her a 112.

This time differential and 4 point spread was utilized properly at OP yesterday when Havre de Grace ran 8.5F in 1.42.02 and got a 105 Beyer and in the next race when The Factor ran the distance in 1.42.19 (.17 seconds or 1 length slower and received a 103 Beyer).  A slower track was also prominent when Quality Road ran his Donn 1/5 faster than his Florida Derby and yet received a 10 point greater Beyer at 121.  An equal track variance that day would have resulted in only a 2 point greater Beyer to 113, not the 121.

I would really appreciate it if at some point Mr. Beyer, in his column, would explain why Big Drama and Hilda’s Promise both received the same Beyer.  I know about all the variables involved and how the track is playing on a certain day, etc, and etc., but to me, this does not make sense with her only getting the 108 yesterday, especially since she ran faster and the track was slower.

Mr. Beyer, I have purchased and still refer to all your books about speed and Beyers.  In a world that is becoming more and more critical, to divulge this information so as to add credibility to Beyer Speed Figures might ensure integrity to a system that has been drawing more and more criticism lately.

20 Mar 2011 2:10 PM
jayjay

LOL this draynay clown is really funny.  You're trying too hard dude.  Give it up man, I told ya, try the Quarter Horses.

I honestly was hoping that Martin wouldn't be able to control The Factor specially when he went off at 3-2.  The only chance ArchX3 had was for TF to burn himself out, instead ArchX3 burnt out trying to catch TF.  As I said though, Martin Garcia is just an awesome jockey.  I don't think anyone can go with this horse on the lead.

Regardless of what happens in the AD, I think the owner will not be able to resist the KD seeing how he ran today.  They already have the earnings, with no speed except UM and Soldat in the Derby (so far), I have no doubt they will run in the Derby.  There are worse horses that has run in the KD that didn't deserve it, I think TF earned that today.  I'm not betting him though lol, I just want to see what happens to UM when he's faced with a real horse.

Looking forward to the SA Derby and the FL Derby.  I have a very strong feeling the KD winner is running on either the Fla Derby or the SA Derby. It's not necessary the winner of either race but a horse from those races.

20 Mar 2011 2:21 PM
Zen's Auntie

In reviewing the Rebel, the kids noticed a bit of lather on The Factor, to us this indicates he has room to improve fitness and an indication a horse can acheive a noticably higher level of fitness.

The Factor would be that much more dangerous with 15% greater condition level. Going back to Oaklawn with the deeper track for another race over the course would help that fitness level increase. Dang that Baffert knows his stuff.

Mmmm, can you see him more fit, able to rebrake like that on the lead with even more in the tank...

what if... they run Jaycito, and have the Factor skip the KD (and its madness) Then, Martin and Bob show back up to take the Preakness again this time wire to wire in record time.

Then, maybe everyones back at it in June for the Belmont after no one lets the Factor loose on the lead and they all burn up and a closer grinds it out - maybe Dialed In - Just a thought....

20 Mar 2011 2:34 PM
Zen's Auntie

mmmm BTA Foot one of my all time favorites just so easy on the eyes

20 Mar 2011 2:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

Draynay,

Thanks again for putting your curse on Sway Away. This horse did not run well at all, no excuses. He is certainly better than he showed yesterday. Maybe he will rebound in the Arkansas Derby.

The Factor ran a great race and clearly got two turns when he was slowed down some. His 6f split of 1:10.98, was 2 3/5 seconds faster than Mo, approx. 13 lengths faster! I am happy that The Factor will move forward and assure a decent pace in the KY Derby if he makes it in. This should set the race up perfectly for horses like Dialed In, Soldat, and Premier Pegasus.

The above average horse named Mo should not be feared, hype is cheap.

20 Mar 2011 2:45 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Yes,and if The Factor wins the A. Derby,you will come up with another spin/excuse instead of giving the horse deserved props.

20 Mar 2011 2:52 PM
Ranagulzion

Jason,

The Factor looked scarry good in The Rebel. This colt has made a believer out of me.  He won it the way I forcasted it but looked particularly impressive lengthening his strides up the lane and galloping out strongly.  He can win anywhere he goes next, whether the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby or The Wood Memorial.  He appears to have all the goods to threaten Uncle Mo and should be fitter than the latter right now.

IMO Uncle Mo is still a lock but someone could pick it. On sheer class Uncle Mo towers over the competition but comparitive fitness could become an issue with colts like The Factor, Premier Pegasus, Dialed In, Soldat and Mucho Macho Man having three races under their belts.  

A very, very interesting Derby scenario is building.  Consider adding Flashpoint to the mix and we could be in for a Kentucky Derby of very high quality.

20 Mar 2011 2:52 PM
Draynay

What planet am I from?  What a complete waste of time The Factor will prove to be.  He wins a G2 with nothing in it and you are all excited?  Get excited if he wins the Arkansas but he will see speed in that race and he will fold.

20 Mar 2011 3:20 PM
Coldfacts

DRAYNAY

"The Factor didn't look that fast and set modest fractions”

The Factors time of 1:42.19 has only been bettered 7 times in the 50YRS history of the Rebel Stakes. In the last 24 years only Derby winner Smarty Jones 1:42.07 has been faster. Two Times HOY Curlin recorded time of 1:44.70. The 1993 Derby winner Sunny’s Halo recorded a Rebel time of 1:42.20. Te mile split for the 2011 Rebel was 2 to 3 faster than the previous five years. If you consider the7th fastest time in the 49th renewal of a race moderate, you are going to take a lot incoming fire.

Consider the following: Soldat ran the slowest FOY in the last five years and he is seen as a legitimate challenger for Uncle. If this is realistic then The Factor is your 2011 derby winner.

20 Mar 2011 3:21 PM
snow

Sodapopkid,

You need to "re-grip".  The horse worked in 1:10 flat from the gate 2 weeks prior to the race.  Betty White could've ridden him to victory!

20 Mar 2011 4:05 PM
Zen's Auntie

Laz, I wondered the same thing on the 108 for HP you stated what caused my puzzlement very well, it deserves and answer.

so then, just so Im clear, success in the KD Or any upcoming 2 turn race is dictated by Juvenile Grade 1 wins last year Dray?  just checking.  

20 Mar 2011 4:22 PM
predict

When you put "The Factor" into the Kentucky Derby "equation", you get a different "result". It looks something like this:

TF + UM + 18? * 1 1/14 (- Draynay selection) = ?

Any mathematicians out there that can solve this equation will walk away with a winner the first Saturday in May.

20 Mar 2011 4:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

The Louisiana Derby goes from a projected small field a week or so ago to a committed 13 starters.  This is Machen's turn to star.  My prediction is that this guy still has lots to say in the KD and he's still in my top five along with Mo, Soldat, THAS and Jaycito.

20 Mar 2011 4:43 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY-

Please list those 4 horses that Pletcher has that can beat The Factor... I am wanting to see how many of these horses you say can beat him show up to the Ky Derby...

I mean once again you haven't learned a thing have you? You get creamed all weekend long on your picks, and instead of just chalking it up as a bad weekend and moving on you continue to make yourself look dumb. List the four horses please. Cause the only three year old that Pletcher has in his barn right now that I know of that can run a 100+ beyer going two turns is Uncle Mo. So please get back with all of us on here so we can one day be as smart as you.

20 Mar 2011 6:07 PM
skyfire

2:24:  You are so right about Martin Garcia .  Baffert recognized how good he is, and Baffert is right on!  The Factor is a brilliant colt, but so are a lot of them this year.  Baffert got his to go two turns, and the jock was a large part of it.

20 Mar 2011 8:39 PM
sodapopkid

I agree skyfire,   Martin Garcia is an outstanding jockey.  Any horse he gets the mount on, I know that horse is being ridden by a great jock and the ride will speak for itself. If the horse don't win the race it's not because of the jockey, it would be the horse.

20 Mar 2011 8:57 PM
jayjay

Draynay : Yes, we're still wondering what planet you're from.  UM runs in the TW and you're questioning the Rebel ??  Get serious LOL.

I wonder who Garcia will pick for the Derby, TF or Jaycito.  I have a feeling he'll be on TF as I believe Baffert prefers this horse over Jaycito.  I just hope he gets Bejarano or someone from the east coast to ride Jaycito, I really like Javier Castellano's style.  He did a great job with IceBox last year and I think Jaycito is much much better than IceBox.

20 Mar 2011 9:15 PM
predict

There was a race horse that The Factor reminds me of, the way he moves so smoothly and efficiently with brilliant speed in a wire to wire front running fashion. Please don't get upset with me, for I can't help but see Ruffian when I see the way this colt moves with his desire to win.....amazing! I don't think anyone is going to beat this guy, no matter how far they go.

20 Mar 2011 9:20 PM
furlongs

Draynay as you can see this blog is completely tired of you! I know I always welcome a discussion about contenders as well as horses that are pretenders, but on this subject your either one of two things... 1) truely do not know what you are talking about or 2) your more bias the Bill O'Reilly's show (The Factor, lol) I mean we know you like Uncle Mo, we know you think he is Unbeatable, fine. But you need to give credit where credit is do. The Factor ran an wonderful race. His fractions were solid, his come home time was totally solid as well. I mean you say he faced nothing well guess what he creamed the horse you said had to win. I mean this is a solid racehorse. I do not like the fact he had some foot problems early this year. I also have made it clear that in no way would I personally bet him in the Derby no matter what his last prep looks like. But for you to totally dismiss him after the campaign he is putting together then something is totally worng somewhere. I know you like to play the bad guy, the one people love to hate. But for the sake of your handicaping pride just admit the race was solid. I mean you are losing more creditadility then Bill O'Reilly when he was making those nasty phone calls to interns back several years ago... Still waiting for the list of Pletcher horses btw... Good luck at the windows everyone.

20 Mar 2011 9:22 PM
Draynay

Mike, I had to listen to all this garbage several years ago when many of you were telling me how fast Bob Blackjack was remember?  This is the same thing all over again.  Uncle Mo is still 10 lengths better than anything I have seen.  Pletcher will send some speed to Arkansas to see how fast The Factor really is and my guess is he will fold like a cheap suit. My guess is Dance City is heading to Arkansas.

20 Mar 2011 9:44 PM
Matthew W

Mildly Offensive a nice filly--slop was tiring today--she won under wraps after going fast early....and Draynay, you crack me up--only you would say we saw the cracks in The Factor yesterday--we saw him romp home is what we saw, which is not good for Uncle Mo--they don't want a fast Derby pace--they want to stalk a moderate pace--The Factor throws a wrench in their plans--Baffert is getting into Tadd's/I mean Draynay's head! The faster the better for Jaycito/and Mr Cho and Pre Peg....

20 Mar 2011 9:50 PM
jayjay

Draynay : I'm with furlongs, we'd love to know who the 4 horses from TP's barn that you say can whip The Factor.  

Laz : I too like Machen but I think this is Elite Alex's turn to shine, he's been so close.  If he doesn't do it in this race, I don't think the connections will try to get to the Derby.  My longshot for this race is Wilkinson with GoGo aboard.  I think it's a pretty wide open race.  I'll use Mucho Macho Man but I won't single him on top.  I'll probably have 3 sets of tickets, mostly with Elite Alex but a few with Wilkinson on top as well as MMM.

Good luck man!

20 Mar 2011 11:34 PM
Footlick

furlongs- why do you think he will learn?

21 Mar 2011 12:03 AM
John

Here's another point to ponder...

The Factor just turned 3 last Tuesday (March 15).

What kind of a super horse does Bob Baffert actually have here.

21 Mar 2011 12:46 AM
GunBow

The Factor ran in the Rebel like he did in his maiden race.  As Footlick said, a 46 and change half is fast for most horses, but for The Factor it is just cantering.  And when able to settle, unchallenged, into such fractions, he had more than enough left to win easy.  The Factor was simply too fast and talented for this field.

Sure, if I'm being critical, I can point to things to diminish The Factor's performance.  Yes, he was unchallenged on the lead, yes he was only running 8.5 furlongs, yes he wasn't facing a great field.  But just like Uncle Mo accomplished his goals in the Timely Writer, The Factor accomplished his goals in the Rebel; given the Rebel was The Factor's first start around two turns, it was an unquestioned success.

The Factor successfully demonstrated he could rate, rattling off solid fractions as if it were a exercise.  With the lack of quality speed in the race, after Garcia established The Factor on a clear lead he was able to slow things down the 3rd and 4th quarters.  But make no mistake, when the field came to him at the eighth pole, The Factor took back off, just like he did in his maiden win, running the final sixteenth in a strong 6 and 1.  The Factor might have been tired after the race, but he closed very well in the Rebel.

I would imagine The Factor will next run in the Arkansas Derby.  The Factor exposed the Arkansas 3 year olds; unless some shippers come in for the Arkansas Derby, The Factor is likely to be a heavy favorite for the race.  

The Rebel didn't convince me The Factor can win the Derby, but I agree with Baffert that 9 furlongs now looks highly possible.  The pace for the Kentucky Derby is almost always crazy, so to win The Factor would not only have to run 1.5 furlong farther than he did in the Rebel, he will most likely have to deal with a number of early pace challengers.  While it's possible The Factor could clear the Derby field early, doing that could force him to run 45 or even 44 for the half, and no horse short of Spend A Buck is going to win the Derby doing that.

Pace and talent made the Rebel.  The Factor was too fast for the field, was able to set what for him were modest fractions, and then cruised away the final sixteenth as much the best.  Baffert clearly made the correct decision bringing him to Oaklawn for the Rebel.  Imagine had The Factor been a part of the San Felipe field?  As good as The Factor is, it is very unlikely he could have held off Premier Pegasus after a contested first 6 furlongs of 108 and change.  

21 Mar 2011 3:06 AM
GunBow

 In the Rebel, The Factor proved he can run a frist half in 46 and 3 and then close the final sixteenth of an 8.5 furlong race in 6 and 1.  

If nothing else, the Rebel confirmed The Factor as the 2nd most talented 3 year old behind Uncle Mo, and the only one in his league, at least so far.  Both Mo and The Factor have distance questions, but Mo certainly has fewer questions given he has repeatedly proven the ability to rate and that he has won a 2 turn race against elite gr.1 competition.  However, make no mistake, The Factor is in his zip code as it concerns speed and talent.  The Factor earned a 103 Beyer in the Rebel to go along with a 103 in the San Vicente and a 108 in that maiden score.  Has any other 3 year old, Mo included, run 3 Beyers over 100?

21 Mar 2011 3:09 AM
GunBow

There's not much to say about the Rebel also-rans because they are more Derby pretenders than contenders.  Like many others, I was wrong about Sway Away; it appears he is a late running sprinter and that his action might make him injury prone and/or inconsistent.  Arch x3 and Caleb's Posse(who I had forgotten had the worst trip of anyone in the Southwest) are honest horses but do not seem fast enough for the Classics.  Finally, I had a feeling that it was just a matter of time before JP's Gusto met his Waterloo, but I didn't think it would be in this race.  That's too bad.  It's also too bad Alternation had his gate problems.  

Finally, for those claiming The Factor didn't face much in the Rebel because Elite Alex scratched, I have a strong feeling that one of the reasons he did scratch was the presence of The Factor.  I think Elite Alex would have been a starter had Baffert stayed West.

21 Mar 2011 3:12 AM
GunBow

While the Santa Anita surface is ridiculously too fast, the fact that the Cali prep races have had such quick early paces(Tapizar in the Sham/Lewis, The Factor in the San Vicente, the San Felipe) have given the horses out here invaluable experience running against the type of pace they are likely to see in Kentucky.  

Last year, the main question was how horses conditioned to slow synthetic paces(think Sidney's Candy) would fare when confronted with the contentious and blistering early pace of the Derby. The answer, at least for Sidney's Candy, was not well.

This year, however, the Cali horses have plenty of experience with fast paces.  People can critique Premier Pegasus for taking advantage of a pace meltdown and a perfect trip in the San Felipe, but doesn't the Derby typically have a pace meltdown too?  

This year, the question is flipped for me; how will horses like Soldat, Mucho Macho Man, and To Honor and Serve deal with the early speed of a horse like The Factor?  While it's easy to say that The Factor will fold at 10 furlongs if he's challenged early, some horse is actually going to have to go out there and run with him early, something which most likely will cost that horse any chance at winning.

Notice I didn't include Uncle Mo among the horses that haven't had to deal with much pace in 2 turn races.  While the Timely Writer was absurdly slow, he was up near a solid pace in the BC Juvy.  So, Mo has proven the ability to run fast early and keep going.  However, the critics of the Timely Writer are absolutely correct to discount Mo's closing quarter given how slow the early pace was. Is there any chance the Derby will have a pace of 49 and 113 and change?  Of course not.  

There is no question Uncle Mo got something out of the Timely Writer and that it was a good first step, but it didn't reveal anything new about him, beyond the fact he can close a mile race in 22 and 4 after going 113 and 3.  

I'm not claiming The Factor is Mo's equal, but in the Rebel he clocked the first half in 46 and change and yet was able to finish in 6 and 1.  While the competition in the Rebel was not elite, at least The Factor was asked to deal with an early pace at least in the ballpark of what is likely at Churchill.

21 Mar 2011 3:18 AM
slyder

What planet am I from?  What a complete waste of time The Factor will prove to be.  He wins a G2 with nothing in it and you are all excited?  Get excited if he wins the Arkansas but he will see speed in that race and he will fold.

Draynay 20 Mar 2011 3:20 PM

When does Cal Nation run again? When's Cal Nation going again? Cal Nation, Cal Nation, I can't wait to see Cal nation run again. Blah, blah , blah. Sound familiar draynay? Just another one of your chalk that got whipped and you talk about getting excited about a horse who's beaten nothing? Yhe Factor would wipe the floor with Cal Nation. Seriously dude can't you remember from one day to another what you say? You practically wet your pants over Cal Nation and how many Graded races has he won or who has he beat?

21 Mar 2011 9:17 AM
Rebel Rebel

One thing for sure this race will not be run like the Timely Writer where the lead horse was allowed a pace so slow you could have gone faster pushing a wheelchair through a foot of mud.

Remembering that this race is only 1 1/16 It is concievable that speed will hold up and the Factor will be there at the finish. This isn't 1 1/4 miles and horses like RA have shown in the past that although they weren't ever going to win at that distance they could carry speed shorter.

Rebel Rebel 18 Mar 2011 3:36 PM

Bingo!! Some chalk deserves to be chalk and it's nice to be able to see it when they do. Pay no attention to the man behind the draynay. From what I've seen he's been wrong 9 times out of 10 and that's on chalk!!

21 Mar 2011 9:29 AM
Smoking Baby

DRAYNAY

"The Factor didn't look that fast and set modest fractions”

I've got to side with Cold Facts on this one.  I track announcer said "They went the half in :46 and 3 and now they are really flying."

It's hard for me to reconcile "really flying" with "modest fractions."  Someone is wrong here.

21 Mar 2011 10:25 AM
Smoking Baby

What I saw in the Rebel was a horse extended that will never be ready to run in the Arkansas.  It's going to take 3 weeks for The Factor just to get his legs back.  Will Baffert actually run him there?  I doubt it but if he does he will fold like a cheap suit when the real running begins.

Draynay 20 Mar 2011 1:29 PM

"What you saw in the Rebel..."

What you PREDICTED in the Rebel was that The Factor would be no factor.  Regardless of what you saw it's safe to say the winning by over 6 makes the colt a factor.

21 Mar 2011 10:32 AM
2:24

jayjay - I like Elita Alex, Wilkinson and Mucho Macho Man in the Louisiana Derby.  Probably as good a reason as any to find another horse given my recent picks.

I also think that if The Factor runs in The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands, that will be the horse Garcia rides.

GunBow - I agree with your opinion that Elite Alex scratched partly due to The Factor.  Tim Ritchey is a wise horseman and I think he fancies his colt's chances more in the Louisiana Derby.  I'm sure the PP had something to do with it.

21 Mar 2011 10:40 AM
Forbidden Apple

Martin Garcia should be endorsed by Allstate, considering his incredibly safe hands. It's a shame that he had to head back to Mexico waiting for a visa renewal. I don't understand why Obama claimed that he was going to tackle the immigration issues in our country. I think Garcia is brilliant when he is on the front end with a speed horse. In last weeks DRF The Factor's Tomlinson distance # was 350. In this weeks DRF his Tomlinson distance # was listed at 431. Which is it? I did not know that these #'s changed often.

Slyder,

Your last post was very funny, thank you for the laughs.

Ranagulzion,

I am glad that you brought up Flashpoint. The last I heard he was being pointed towards the FL Derby. His speed is even more brilliant than The Factor's.

Joe Alva,

I agree with almost every point you made in your post about The Factor. But To Honor And Serve is far from a speed horse. He won a couple of races last year while jogging on the front end.

Draynay,

If The Factors fractions were modest, what would you call Uncle Mo's fractions? Mo was crawling like a wounded turtle for the first 6F in The Timely Writer Derby. I had a feeling that you were going to say that The Factor has not won a Grade I race. This is 100% garbage, there have been zero Grade I races this year on the Triple Crown trail. The Factor ran 2 3/5 seconds faster than Mo's 1:13 3/5 6f split, 13 lengths faster! I would love to see Baffert send The Factor to the Wood in 3 weeks. Even with only 3 weeks rest, I think he would run Mo off his feet.

And what do you have against Bob Blackjack? This horse was blazing fast and much more classy than the above average horse named Mo.

21 Mar 2011 10:46 AM
CV

Jason,

Have you heard anything about the status of Gourmet Dinner?

There's been no news on him other than a brief mention in DRF March 15 that he shipped out of Gulfstream Park to a farm in Ocala.

21 Mar 2011 10:55 AM
Johnny

I have to ask all of you..

Why do you give this thing know as a Draynay your time of day?

He is probably some 15 year old kid doing what he does best pissing off adults..

I am a little tired of half of the post being towards a person who could not handicap his way out of a paper bag.

More focus on horses less on whatever a draynay is

PLEASE!!!!

21 Mar 2011 11:39 AM
LAZMANNICK

Jayjay……I'm not big on Elite Alex yet.  He's still only a maiden winner and in his last two he closed a ton, but did not gain from the 8th pole home.  This guy is a Canadian bred and if the Derby trail turns out to be too tough, then he is probably nominated for the Canadian TC, which includes the $1M Queen's Plate and other than Queen’splatekitten should be a piece of cake for him.

Gunbow……In answer to your concern about the affect the The Factor's speed will have on Soldat, do you not think that in his next he will be rated off the pace?  I know GP can be difficult if its speed bias should come into play, but I think to rate him would be the most logical strategy at this time.  Still too much speed to contend with overall come Derby time.

21 Mar 2011 11:56 AM
thomas

Dance city is by city zip to think he'll run well in the ark derby(if they go) is crazy there better off running in sprints like the bayshore and having a kings bishop contender

21 Mar 2011 12:43 PM
draynay

Cal Nation is a good looking horse that is only going to get better. He lost a photo it happens but the talent is there.  And a horse to watch that got a late start and should be tough down the road.  The Factor will be about as big a Factor in the Derby as Cal Nation will be.  This is Bob Blackjack all over again.  If you want to talk about a California horse make sure it is Jaycito.  Any other horse is a waste of time.  Uncle Mo is still the best and Soldat is right behind.  Soldat will have 3 races at 1 1/8th this year and probably the only one with 3 wins at the distance this year in the Derby.

GunBow the is no distance question for Uncle Mo to suggest there is is silly at best.  And The Factor is no where near the 2nd best horse that belongs to Soldat.  Soldat has much more experience facing tougher horses in more Graded races and already has 2 wins at 1 1/8th.  Don't insult Soldat by putting The Factor in the same sentence with him.

21 Mar 2011 1:32 PM
draynay

GunBow be serious.  I was more impressed with Uncle Mo's Maiden race (and splits) than I was with a exhausted Factor in the Rebel.  Good luck bringing that tired horse back in 4 weeks.

21 Mar 2011 1:36 PM
It aint easy being good

The Factor is a freak of nature. He has to be on the top of everyones list. If it rains derby day then just pick your favorite color to win the derby because it wont matter. I love the derby but rain throws everything off!

21 Mar 2011 1:42 PM
draynay

Matthew, maybe you better watch the G1 Juvi at Churchill again. Notice how Uncle Mo rates beautifully behind the speed.  Rookie.  The Factor doesn't make the Derby more difficult for Uncle Mo he makes it easier.  Uncle Mo would love to sit behind him and Soldat.

21 Mar 2011 1:42 PM
Draynay

Uncle Mo, Brethren, Stay Thirsty and Cal Nation.  All 4 of them are better than any California horse named The Factor.  The Factor is just a sprinter. Aka Bob Blackjack

21 Mar 2011 1:52 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY-

Still waiting on the list?? I mean I want the 4 horses that can go cream The Factor? I mean as far as I am concerned the way it looks Mr. Pletcher better hope Uncle Mo is the man cause the rest of his 3 year old males just don't cut it. I mean Stay Thirsty is a nice little colt but not near fast enough the same goes for Brethren. Those are the ONLY other male three year olds Pletcher has in his barn that are stakes winners that I know of... I mean some one said on here your wrong 9 out of 10 times. I gotta feeling they are giving you way to much credit. No longer are you going to be able to just say anything under the sun and think someone is not going to call you out on it. Tell this blog the 4 three year old horses that Todd Pletcher has in his barn that are better then The Factor. I mean you come back on this blog and continue to post.  Now your saying Dance City is goig to the Ark Derby to hurt The Factor!! Are you serious! You didn't even think he was suppose to win his last race! Btw he went in 1:38 for a mile. I gotta feeling The Factor could run that at Gulfstream! Before that he ran a 1 1/8 in like 1:52 I gotta feeling The Factor could run that as well with no problem. The only horse Pletcher will send to the Ark Derby is Brethren if he recovers from his last race. Dance City as well as Cal Nation are nice little horses but in no way ready for the Ky Derby Trail. SO we are waiting, your next post should have a list of 4 horses on it. Anything less and your proving you don't have a clue what your talking about... Good luck at the windows everyone.

21 Mar 2011 2:02 PM
Zen's Auntie

GunBow I love your stuff man keep it coming a person can learn a lot from you.

Your observation on "who else has 3 buyers over 102" being Just UM & TF led me to look at some rankings. See, ya gots me thinking.

What I found interesting is who has these type stats in the just under the last 3 months.

Fitness is often a question of What have you done for me Lately? And, It concerns me that it may be too little too late to reach top condition in May for the Above Average Colt this year.  

check this out shamelesly copied info compiled today from the earnings chart at equibase. I love Equibase.

In the 2011 earnings rank UM is tied with the likes of Bandbox and To Honor and Serve in 478th place (OMG I get that 478 now! Whoever keeps saying that -LOL) at 40K but heres the thing; E speed figures.

TH&S - 87

Uncle Mo - 106

Bandbox - 111

of course there is the Factor

The Factor - in 88th place overall in 2011 with 270K and a 112 E speed rating. (same as Euroears)

Now lets say you just could see a colt in 2011 and you didnt know more, what would you say in Late March?

PS - this is NOT to say Bandbox is a better horse then UM - PLEASE lets not go there. frankly I was surpirsed when he popped up just before Mo it being alpha listed at that earning rate. I was even more surprised by the speed figure. I simply pulled info for 2 other three year olds I found there with Mo - simply to say - look where comparitive 3 year olds are today in this years stats.

21 Mar 2011 2:06 PM
Zen's Auntie

Just FYI Soldat w/ 264K earned also has a 112E speed #

just to be fair in reporting whats going on w/ 3 year olds this year...

And for those curious, Runflatout earning 32 K was assigned a 111E speed this year too.

21 Mar 2011 2:43 PM
Zen's Auntie

Machen has 58+K and put in a 107E Sway Away 32K and Silver Medalion 120K both also managed a 106 for E speed ratings in 2011.

21 Mar 2011 2:52 PM
2:24

I think Maclean's Music has just definitively settled the Highest Beyer by a First Time Starter question.  114, wow.

21 Mar 2011 3:25 PM
no mo mo

Uncle Mo is still 10 lengths better than anything I have seen.

Draynay 20 Mar 2011 9:44 PM

That dumb statement explains alot. No wonder you are such a lousy handicapper when you can't even see that Mo won his last race by less than 4. That's a long way from 10 and he faced nothing. His best race was the Br. Cup and he won that by slightly over 4. All that hallucinating going on in your head really clouds your ability to handicap a race.

Uncle Mo will not win the KY Derby!

21 Mar 2011 3:39 PM
gw bushwacker

First you said The Factor wasn't good enough to hold his speed without another pace horse:

"The Factor will be no factor in this race.  He is running on a real track and will find his speed is not enough.  I haven't looked at the race yet but I have to think Sway Away will be tough here."  

Draynay 17 Mar 2011 3:41 PM

Now you are changing to another tune and praying he will wilt under pace pressure.

"Get excited if he wins the Arkansas but he will see speed in that race and he will fold."

Draynay 20 Mar 2011 3:20 PM

I suppose if you keep changing the tune sooner or later you might strike a cord.

21 Mar 2011 3:55 PM
jayjay

GunBow : You know how much I respect your posts and your analysis but I do have a question about the elite G1 you mentioned Uncle Mo has faced.  I'm assuming you were talking about the BC race last year and looking at that field, only 3 other horses are G1 winner in that field and only Jaycito is considered a top contender which didn't really run in that race.  BAT and J.B's Thunder are off the trail.  I don't question that Uncle Mo is good but there are still questions in my opinion as to who he has faced and given how he is being trained/prepped for the Derby, I don't see how he is "10 lengths better" than any of the top contenders (as Draynay said).

I'm not putting down his accomplishments, I just don't buy in to the hype.  I still think it's all just a hype because of what he did in his 2 yr old and I just don't think that dominating in your sophomore year doesn't mean you'll be the same when you turn 3.  So far, this year, he has not shown me any signs that he can dominate the budding 3 yr olds.  He might prove me wrong in the Derby and I have no problems with that but if I'm going to bet my money in the Derby, I just can't find any value betting on UM based on hype.

The fastest horse he had to rate off of was Riveting Reason and I don't think RR can go with The Factor regardless of how fast he is.  If RR makes it to the Derby, he will be a rabbit for PrePeg, he could be the first victim of TF but we also haven't seen UM rate off of a real speed horse with staying power like TF.  I can foresee UM running the same race that ArchX3 did in the Rebel, who chased TF and just didn't have much left in the end.  Yes, KD is at 10F and TF will likely fold but there's also a distance question on UM's pedigree so I just can't see him winning but maybe you have a different opinion or analysis which I would love to hear(see) here.  The scenario I just mentioned really bodes well for the stalkers / closers.  I really think it's how will unfold in the Derby.  This is why I'm sticking to Jaycito, Dialed In and THAS and Soldat as my top 4 horses.  I like THAS and Soldat as I think they will stalk the pace and not go after the lead.

No one will really know how good UM is until the Derby.  We really won't find out in the Wood Memorial and I don't think we found out anything in the TW except the fact that he still likes to race (think of RA after her long vacation).

21 Mar 2011 4:13 PM
The Rock

114 Beyer for MaClenn's Music? Wow....

21 Mar 2011 4:55 PM
stevebiscuit

Baffert's leaning towards the Wood Memorial with Jaycito. Doesn't look like he's too scared of Uncle Mo.

21 Mar 2011 5:32 PM
Householder

SPORTOFKINGS.  Add Winning Colors to your bottle of Gray Lightning.  She carved out some pretty nice fractions in her final Derby prep.  

21 Mar 2011 6:53 PM
Householder

The factor: Ya get a nice pace to run at if your Jaycito or Pegasus.  

21 Mar 2011 6:56 PM
Draynay

To suggest there is a problem or shortage of breeding in Uncle Mo is the same nonsense I heard about Secretariat and his breeding after he lost the Wood in 1973.  I watched Uncle Mo run 1 1/4 Breeders Cup Day and at the Timely.  To be honest he ran about 1 1/2 in the Timely.  It took him a very long time to jog back to the winners circle because he was on the other side of the track.  Furlongs, to be honest I doubt The Factor will even show up to the Arkansas.  Brethren will be going and I don't think they want any part of him.  Pletcher will LOVE IT if he does show.  My guess is he will stay in California now that he shipped out Jaycito for the Wood.  The Wood should be a decent field running for 2nd and 200k.

21 Mar 2011 10:10 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Talk is cheap,you should know. After Mo loses in May,you will do what you do best-back pedal.

21 Mar 2011 10:26 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

I'm hopping unto Flashpoint's bandwagon for the Florida Derby as I'm not happy with the reports about Dialed In preparation.  Flashpoint is from the Danzig branch of Northern Dancer, is a lightening fast, robust grey BEAST, that has multiple crosses of the great Native Dancer quite similar to The Factor.  His sire Pomeroy was a crack sprinter that could stretch out to a 1 1/16 mile therefore he definitely could go all the way.  Any challenger trying to keep pace with him might be in danger up the lane and if they leave him alone it could be a devastating runaway.  Interesting times ahead friend.

Mucho Macho Man is untouchable in the Louisianna Derby.

Also keep an eye on Watch Me Go.  This colt is improving with every race and is really going to be a major factor in the classics.  I think that he'll be a big Belmont Stakes horse.

21 Mar 2011 11:00 PM
Pedigree Shelly

        Uncle Mo and The Factor have legitimate reasons to be in the top five of Derby Prospects but , I have a feeling that Stay Thirsty will win The Derby !!! Please don't laugh !!! The last time I had this feeling , The 50 to 1 shot Giacomo won !!!

21 Mar 2011 11:18 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Forbidden Apple

  With young sires such as War Front the sire's numbers such as Tomlinson can change dramatically especially for off track since the pool of races run on off tracks by his progeny is so small. A War Front or two must have won on an off track in the past week.

22 Mar 2011 1:28 AM
longwaytomay

Zens Auntie,

 The numbers are 487 and 1 not 478 and 1. That was a good guess though. Draynay will figure out what these numbers represent on May 7th.

22 Mar 2011 6:03 AM
Billy's Empire

Good morning Bloggers!

Jaycito to the Wood?

Bind to race in 4th on Sat. at FG.

Kathmanblu to Ashland. GOGO new Jockey?

Twice Over and Musir to clash with Beuna Vista saturday at Meydan!

Elite Alex gets the hose again with the outside post!

Watch out for the right, you may need to go Left...

22 Mar 2011 9:48 AM
2:24

I tend to agree with Draynay on the breeding point.  Uncle Mo is rateable, push button, and just plain fast.  I think he gets both 9 and 10 furlongs.  As I've stated, my only concern is his conditioning of one two turn prep.  

22 Mar 2011 11:02 AM
Draynay

stevebiscuit, Baffert and others will be running for 2nd place and the 200k that goes with it.  Baffert doesn't believe he will beat Unlce Mo.

22 Mar 2011 11:24 AM
Footlick

Hey Billy- did you enjoy the playoffs?

22 Mar 2011 12:17 PM
jayjay

I can only think of one thing for the move to the Wood for Jaycito, Baffert wants to test him against a speedball and see if he can close.

This means TF will most likely stay in the SA Derby  only because they don't want to run in the deeper track in Oaklawn again.   I like the move, good for both horses.  At least I'll find out if Jaycito can run closer to the pace this time.  I'd have to say that TF is a sure win if he keeps the form in the SA Derby, speically with no more speed coming back from San Felipe.  PrePeg will most likely ship to Arkansas now that TF will stay home.

22 Mar 2011 12:28 PM
stevebiscuit

You just keep telling yourself that Draynay!

22 Mar 2011 1:13 PM
mr pibb

draynay,

Funny how when your pick Cal Nation gets nosed out at the wire with no excuses you dismiss it but when Zenyatta got beat by 1/2 a nose after a very troubled trip, by a horse running on his home turf, and who had the perfect trip you claim she got "whipped". You are a sick man.

22 Mar 2011 1:36 PM
Rinzler

No, Baffert doesn't believe he'll beat any horse trained under CHO.

:-)

22 Mar 2011 1:40 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

That's right.  Baffert and the others  will all be looking at the big butt of Soldat.

22 Mar 2011 2:11 PM
Billy's Empire

THE FACTOR= Lion Heart, needed the lead, ran fast, beaten at 10f

Uncle Mo= Smarty Jones, Undefeated, fast stalker, pedigree questions, lost TC in last furlong.

22 Mar 2011 2:22 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

A couple months back what were you saying regarding me "liking" The Factor? lmao

22 Mar 2011 2:42 PM
Billy's Empire

Hey Relva, I see nothing has changed. Good for you. You have now picked 1 winner so far this year. 1! Nice Work. You are a stud.

22 Mar 2011 3:22 PM
stevebiscuit

That's interesting Billy because I was thinking just the opposite. The Factor is proving that the farther he runs the more he can carry his speed. He's the one who should be compared to Smarty Jones for he finished within 12/100s of a second of Smarty Jones's Rebel time and did so after facing faster fractions.

22 Mar 2011 4:02 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Your right,nothing has changed. I've picked more than one. Question? How many have you picked,in between time you serve as Reploe's pit bull when he blogs?

22 Mar 2011 4:07 PM
no mo mo

So far all Unca Schmoe has proven is that he's a sprinter and can go 1 1/16. Let me know when he wins at 1 1/8 or longer on dirt at Santa Anita, Saratoga or Belmont. Unca Schmoe will not win the KY Derby!!

22 Mar 2011 4:07 PM
Billy's Empire

Mike, No you have not. You are only fooling yourself. 1 winner. That is it. Dialed In Lost, Beamer Lost, THAS Lost, I could go on, but have no time. I am proud of you. You used Draynay's example of picking chalk and it worked out great for you.

Biscuit, Lion Heart had to have the lead. He went stright to the front. Every RACE. The Factor HAS to have the lead. His trainer admitted it. Uncle Mo does not have to have the lead, he can rate, and pounce. I am actually giving the Factor a ton of credit by even mentioning him being as good as Lion Heart. Lion Heart ran a 46.60 half mile in the Derby after a 22 and change first quarter, and he stayed for a game second over Imperialism and Limehouse. Smarty rated in 2-4th about 2 legnths off the pace the whole race. Then he wore him down in the lane. The Factor, IMO, will probably do the same exact thing, but I see too many closer for him to be 2nd, maybe 5th. Just read the bloodhorse article after Lion Heart wins the Hollywood Futurity. It is like History repeating itself 7 years later.

22 Mar 2011 4:19 PM
Billy's Empire

Really Mike? You want to go there?

Soldat

Stay Thirsty

Game On Dude

Joyful Victory

Unzip Me

QPK

that is just a few off of the top of my head.

you: THAS, BEAMER 2x, Blind Luck etc etc etc. They all lost. You can hang your hat on the fact that you liked the Factor after he won his maiden. BRAVO!

22 Mar 2011 4:29 PM
Zen's Auntie

longwaytomay sorry dyslexic LOL Im just happy to remember my phone number

22 Mar 2011 5:05 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

I also picked a few months back TD. Say what you will Billy,few pay any attention to what you whine about anyway. Very few,go ahead and continue to live in your little fantasy world.

22 Mar 2011 5:56 PM
Householder

I like CA shippers in the Wood.  I think the last Wood winner to win the Derby, first took the San Felipe.  Baffert is smart and he has been firing on all Triple Crown cylinders as of late (Pioneer of the Nile and Lookin at Lucky).  Jaycito's pedigree screams long sweeping "Belmont" style turns.  

22 Mar 2011 6:23 PM
stevebiscuit

Billy, the difference is that Uncle Mo still has a ways to go before he can be compared to Smarty Jones. History will be repeating itself 9 years later instead of 7 when The Factor shrugs off Uncle Mo's challenge and wins the Derby wire to wire just like War Emblem.

22 Mar 2011 6:31 PM
A Racing Fan

Uncle Mo = Mr. Frisky,Snow Chief and High Fly.

The Derby scenario will chew them up and spit themm out once they chase legitimate fast fractions while getting bumped around.

22 Mar 2011 7:22 PM
Footlick

Billy- I loved Lion Heart.  Such a game horse.  Gave his all and was very honest.

22 Mar 2011 7:22 PM
Footlick

Spend A Buck had to have the lead.  War Emblem had to have the lead.  Winning Colors was basically like that too.  They all won the Derby because people assumed they would fade.  If The Factor wins his next prep, people will assume he will fade too.  It could be an interesting scenario, will he fade will he not.  I can't predict whether he will get 10 furlongs or not.  Plugged Nickle certainly didn't fade at 9 furlongs but couldn't get 10 in the Derby and ended up champoin sprinter.  Key to the Mint out of a Buckpasser mare.  So you never really do know what the Bloodlines will bring.  His screamed 10 furlongs.

22 Mar 2011 7:38 PM
mickey 1957

who was the only horse ,to be favorite....in all 3 triple crown race,s ,but did not win any of them?

22 Mar 2011 8:42 PM
furlongs

Draynay-

How dare you talk to me on here without answering the question! You can't name 4 horses faster or better then The Factor in Pletcher's barn! You duck and dodge after you say dumb stuff and you think I even come close to caring what you think? You are a FRAUD Handicapper simple as that. There are little old ladies at the track picking more winners then you cause they like the color of the silks! Please do not comment on anything I say on this blog until you step up and tell this blog which 3 year olds in Todd Pletcher's barn are faster then The Factor. I mean 3 days ago you were saying they were going to run Cal Nation in the Ark Derby!! Your a complete joke, simple as that. You get called out on things and refuse to answer for them and just wait until they go away over time. NOT THIS TIME! You want to be in love with Uncle Mo hey I got no problem with that, to be honest I don't care who you like. There are smart people everyday that lose at the track and there are dumb people everyday that win at the track so do not ever think I care what you have to offer this blog. But when you go out and say stupid things such as the Pletcher comment about The Factor, then you should at least be man enough to stand behind your facts and answer the questions. Although in this case there is no way you have facts. Todd Pletcher has one 3 year old that is as fast as The Factor simple as that. I hope Uncle Mo wins the Wood by daylight. I want him to enter the starting gate as low odds as possible because no way do I use Uncle Mo on the top of ANY of my tickets on Derby Day! If he wins it won't be the first time  I have been wrong and I know it won't be the last, I can live with that. I don't care if people know I was wrong. I don't have to act like I am right all the time I have self-esteam. No Uncle Mo for me on Derby Day, simple as that. If he wins the race I hope he goes on to win the Triple Crown cause horseracing needs it. Good luck at the windows everyone...

22 Mar 2011 10:09 PM
Carlos in Cali

mickey,

Off the top of my head,was it Chief's Crown?

22 Mar 2011 10:22 PM
Mike Relva

FURLONGS

Bravo.  If Mo doesn't win the Derby(and I seriously doubt it) he will pretend he wasn't proclaiming as early as Jan. Mo would win the Triple Crown. lmao

22 Mar 2011 10:41 PM
Footlick

My guess would have been Alydar.  I was going to say Easy Goer, but then remembered he won the Belmont.  Oops.  I don;t think it is fair to google the answer, but now that I have posted, I will.

22 Mar 2011 10:53 PM
Footlick

Hey - Carlos was right!

22 Mar 2011 11:00 PM
furlongs

LOL at Draynay!!!!!

He thinks Brethren, Cal Nation, and Stay Thirsty is better and faster the The Factor!! He even states it in the blog after I had to ask him like 10 times in over a week! DRAYNAY is not even close! Please tell everyone in here you really do not think that! WOW is all I can say about this guy... Have you EVER looked through a Racing Form before??

DRAYNAY- I think you need to give up horseracing and take up slots, there isn't any thinking envolved to play slots, just hit max bet!!

Good luck at the windows everyone.

23 Mar 2011 1:40 AM
Billy's Empire

Relva, very few? You mean like the amount of races you picked this year? Okay, so you can hang your hat on Turbulent Decesnt, Zenyatta, and The Factor. 3 winners in a 3 year span. Amazing. Can I subscribe to Relva school of handicrapping? Where can I send my check?

23 Mar 2011 8:33 AM
Billy's Empire

War Emblem also did not need the lead, like the Factor, and he ran 47, 1:11 3/5 and 136 in the KY Derby. Unless The Factor learns to slow down a little, he is done. If he runs those fractions in the Derby, he will not even be on the lead... Someone yesterday said they could see a Giacomo type Derby again, where a plodder wins b/c the pace falls apart. Who is the plodder?

That is the $64,000 question.

23 Mar 2011 9:04 AM
Forbidden Apple

Dr. Drunkinbum,

Thank you for the response on the Tomlinson numbers. It was the distance number for The Factor that I noticed a big change in, not the wet #. Not that the Tomlinson #'s are 100% accurate, but his distance # was 431 on saturday. I was shocked that he has the highest distance # of any horse I have seen on the KY Derby trail. Yet most people are still saying that The Factor is only a sprinter.

I am sure that no horse in training will skip a race because Brethren is in the entry box.

And I highly doubt that Premier Pegasus will skip the S.A. Derby because of The Factor. It does not sound good for Riveting Reason, so I see Premier Pegasus as a definite starter in the S.A. Derby.

23 Mar 2011 9:59 AM
Footlick

Up through the Preakness, War Emblem won two races without the lead.  One was an allowance race where he was three lengths back at the first call.  The other was the Preakness where he was head and head on the pace.  All his other wins up until then were wire to wire.  So, I guess technically he did not need the lead, but he obviously was better when he had it.  

I'm not going to try to extrapolate what kind of pace The Factor has to set when he hasn't passed his 9 furlongs test yet.  He set a much more controlled pace in the Rebel, and Garcia got him to take a breather before he rebroke.  Let's wait before making the judgement.

23 Mar 2011 11:33 AM
mickey 1957

carlo,s your correct......

23 Mar 2011 12:31 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick, I swear I didn't Google it,haha.Me being 14yo's at the time I remember the 80's vividly.Don't know if that's good or bad though?..

Re: The Factor, I see it this way so far:

Catch 22-  You're damed if you try and match strides with him and damned if you let him settle on the front end.It looked like 9f wouldn't be a problem for him in the Rebel,it's the 10f and possible pace pressure that might reel him in. To me,he's probably more comparable to Spend A Buck or Sunny's Halo at the moment.We'll see.

23 Mar 2011 12:57 PM
Billy's Empire

Footlick.  I agree with you assessment, and I am giving the Factor the praise he deserves for the way he ran that race. It was impressive. Just more Lion Heart tham War Emblem.

23 Mar 2011 1:47 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

I've picked more than 3 winners in the past couple years. You forget last yr when I had Haynesfield among others'. Here's something for you to ponder. If I've selected a million winners,or a million losers what does it matter? It has ZERO consequence on my personal life,it means nothing! Billy,my life doesn't rise or fall on how many/few I get right.

23 Mar 2011 3:16 PM
draynot

If Mo doesn't win the Derby(and I seriously doubt it) he will pretend he wasn't proclaiming as early as Jan. Mo would win the Triple Crown. lmao

Mike Relva 22 Mar 2011 10:41 PM

Mike,

It will be because Mo got stepped on never mind he broke into the horse that stepped on him and that horse was thrown off stride.

The other spin will be the track was too cuppy for him and the maintanance people ruined a Triple Crown.

23 Mar 2011 3:23 PM
Billy's Empire

If you picked a million losers, you would have to be really old.....

23 Mar 2011 3:42 PM
Mike Relva

BILLY'S EMPIRE

No,I'm not "really old".

23 Mar 2011 4:24 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNOT

Very good points,agree with you.

23 Mar 2011 4:27 PM
stevebiscuit

A Racing Fan, the only thing that got Snow Chief beat in the 1986 Derby was that he didn't handle Churchill's quirky surface. He was the best of his crop and still holds the track record at Oaklawn Park for a mile and an eighth. Mo has some talent, but he wouldn't have stood a chance against Snow Chief. If Mo gets beat in the Derby it'll be because he wasn't good enough, not because of the surface.

23 Mar 2011 5:12 PM
Footlick

Carlos- I was much older in the 80's and probably in a bit of a haze.

23 Mar 2011 7:20 PM
furlongs

Mike Relva-

Thanks...I mean Draynay's stuff gets really old. I mean it is funny at times cause I know how he really likes to play the bad guy on this blog, but sometimes he says the dumbest things and then when people try to say something about it he ignores it as if it was never said. It's a joke and people just get tired of it. I mean we are all on this blog becuse our passion for horseracing, and this guy acts like he is the only one that knows whats going on, and in fact he is the one in the dark all the time!! LOL

Good luck at the windows everyone.

24 Mar 2011 1:34 AM
Billy's Empire

Melair whooped Snow Chief!!

24 Mar 2011 8:58 AM
Footlick

Billy- Melair was one of my favorites.  That was a fast filly!

24 Mar 2011 10:07 AM
Billy's Empire

Footlick, she was awesome. Too bad her career was cut short.

24 Mar 2011 1:31 PM
Mike Relva

FURLONGS

Your comments are interesting and funny. He doesn't like to admit when in error,which is more often than not.

24 Mar 2011 5:08 PM

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