Florida Derby Downer

It was my thought all along that the Florida Derby was going to be the most telling prep race of the season. In hindsight I believe I was right, but not in the way that I expected.

With the exception of Dialed In and an unexpected big run from Shackleford, the Florida Derby was largely disappointing. Three of the top Triple Crown contenders--Soldat, To Honor and Serve, and Stay Thirsty--all faltered and in my mind, took themselves out of serious consideration for winning the Kentucky Derby. I know that is a bold statement off of one race and each is talented enough to rebound with a big effort next month, but it will be very difficult for me to back any of them off of what I saw.

Soldat fans will draw a line through the Florida Derby, pointing to the fact that he failed to finish in the top two for the first time in his eight-start career. But it is the way that he lost it that is more telling for me. In both of his starts this year he was able to grab the lead in races with little early speed. When this horse gets on the lead he gets very brave and is tough to beat. But in the Florida Derby, a race with more early speed, we saw that Soldat is not fast enough to get the lead out of the gate and he struggled when dirt was kicked in his face. He's not a horse with a devastating turn of foot that can pick off horses around the turn. He is a horse that prefers to be on the front end and turn away horses trying to catch him. He likely won't have that luxury in the Derby. If he can't stay away from early traffic and carve out an ideal trip, he will be in trouble.

I will throw in one caveat, and that is the weather. If the track comes up wet on Derby Day, as it has the last two years, Soldat moves way up on my list.

In the case of To Honor and Serve, he still has the tactical speed he showed as a 2-year-old when he won those two grade II stakes at Aqueduct. In both starts this year he put himself in winning position around the turn, but he clearly lacks the closing punch he showed in 2010. Whether he has regressed or the other 3-year-olds have just gotten better, I don't know. But it is clear that To Honor and Serve is a couple of notches behind this class. It's one thing to finish third in both Derby preps, it's a completely different thing to be beaten 6 3/4 lengths in each one.

Stay Thirsty may have regressed more than any of the three. It's hard to quantify how much the failed blinkers on experiment affected him, but suffice it say that Todd Pletcher won't keep them on for the Derby. There were reports that Stay Thirsty was not training as well for the Florida Derby as he was for the Gotham, and it obviously showed on the track. Pletcher said Stay Thirsty really had no excuse for his poor performance, which is not a good sign when you are five weeks away from running in the biggest race of your life.

As far as Dialed In, it was a visually impressive performance that will certainly make him one of the favorites for the Derby. He continues to show that explosiveness on the turn that closers need to win classic races. And the fact that he did the same thing at Churchill Downs when breaking his maiden is very encouraging. He is a very nice horse and legitimate contender.

With that said, Dialed In's slow final fractions and the average final time cannot be blindly dismissed. As explosive as Dialed In is around the turn, he does not finish races in the same powerful fashion. We saw that in his March 6 allowance race when he couldn't get by his stablemate and even in the Florida Derby he needed nearly all of what he had to nail an exhausted Shackleford, who ran a taxing :46.35 half mile. Yes he won on a speed favoring track and yes he did what he needed to do. But finishing up the final eighth in :13 and change and in a final time of 1:50.07 leaves some reason for doubt. Don't forget, a pair of fillies--R Heat Lightning and Awesome Maria--ran a second faster than he did the previous day and earned higher speed figures. I thought Pletcher's quote to DRF was pretty telling: "To me, even though they ran on different days, usually it's not a good sign for the colts when fillies run faster."

Look, Dialed In has proven himself to be near the top of what is increasingly looking like an average crop of 3-year-olds gearing up for the Triple Crown. But with his running style that will require him to circle almost the entire Derby field on May 7, I will probably be looking elsewhere for the winner.

The bottom line is that the Florida Derby was a much weaker race that I expected. Hopefully, the Wood and Santa Anita Derby will tell us more this weekend.

241 Comments

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Ted from LA

Time only counts in prison...

and horse races.  And bed.

05 Apr 2011 12:47 PM
eastcoastgirl

I'm glad I'm not the only one who felt deflated by the Florida Derby. It seems that almost none of the horses that were expected to run big, did. I thought it was going to be the best prep race of the season.  I guess I'll be looking to the midwest or the west now for that experience!

05 Apr 2011 12:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Lighten up. It's too early. Two very telling preps in the SA and Arkansas Derby's still to come that could produce top contenders, and despite the slow time Dialed In still has a shot at 10f. I can see giving To Honor And Serve and Soldat a shot in The Derby despite needing dramatic improvements to contend but Stay Thirsty needs a break. It was a disappointing FL Derby because we wanted to see more from some of these that we thought could be good but I expect the top horses in The SA and Ark to be real contenders rather than pretenders. Mo should win the Wood with no problem but he won't be up there alone in the betting on Derby Day. Premier Pegasus is for real, and The Factor or whoever beats him will be a big buzz, then you have the true 10f horses that could be a little under the radar, like Jaycito. It all depends on who Ted From LA picks. He keyed Dialed In with confidence for his big score.

05 Apr 2011 1:00 PM
PonyBologna

I think the Arkansas Derby will be the telling prep this season. KY Derby "contenders" include: Archarcharch, Brethren, Caleb's Posse, Elite Alex, JP's Gusto, Nehro, Sway Away & The Factor.  Would like to see The Factor finish strong but Baffert knows that his horse doesn't need the money so a solid race with a board finish is all I'm looking for.

05 Apr 2011 1:03 PM
Draynay

The Florida Derby came up empty.  I will have Uncle Mo on the top of my ticket and then fill in the bottom with horses that have WON at Churchill before.  I think the Bluegrass will matter this year along with the Arkansas but the Santa Anita winner will not matter as we all know.  Santa Anita winner = Derby loser  You can't struggle to beat a front running 68 to 1 shot and be considered a real Derby threat.  

05 Apr 2011 1:17 PM
Jason Shandler

Yeah, it's very early Dr. D. About a month away from the Derby. Doesn't get any earlier than that. Wake up, spring is here.

05 Apr 2011 1:30 PM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

I still am keeping THAS in consideration for the Derby even though he didn't get the job done and faded when it was time to dig in, in the Florida Derby.  I do feel that racing on the inside took more out of the inside horses than many realize.  You have to remember that THAS was stuck on it to the far turn and Soldat was stuck on it the entire race.  No other horse was on the rail, just those two.  THAS did drop back approaching the turn to switch to the outside and got within a neck or so.  Maybe if he would have gotten within that neck earlier in the turn he would have gotten by Shackleford, but when they turned into the stretch, GP played like it so often does on the main track with the inside horse pulling away from the outside one in a tight battle almost as if they cut the corner sharper.  I also think that THAS was still behind a lot of these in terms of race condition because it was only his second race since the Remsen, both at 9F and it is reasonable to expect a regression in that second race (bounce factor).  He still finished third and now he will go into his Derby (if he goes) on his third off that layoff.  One other thing.  Some horses just do not run well at GP.  THAS did his best in New York against decent horses including MMM.  I also think a change of track surface will benefit him.

05 Apr 2011 1:49 PM
David A

Jason,

I was wondering if you have noticed that the results of almost all the two turn dirt stakes races at Gulfstream this winter have been a little odd.  It seems that in nearly every one there are huge margins between horses that looked evenly matched on paper.  Good examples would be the Rampart, GP Oaks, Fountain of Youth, and Florida Derby.  I can't really point out any obvious bias except to say that some horses seem to handle the trip A LOT better than others on a given day.  It's like if something doesn't go your way, you don't just get beat, you get beat by 20 lengths.

I am especially having trouble wrapping my head around the gigantic form reversal of Soldat and Shackleford (they traded 35 lengths between the FOY and Fla. Derby).  For this reason, should we be a little forgiving of these horses?

05 Apr 2011 1:50 PM
Ted from LA

Nehro is an interesting horse to keep a close eye on...  That basketball game last night was a downer.  I haven't seen that many misses since Draynay's Derby prep picks last year (rim shot!).

05 Apr 2011 1:51 PM
3pleCrown

Dray

Wood Winner = No start in Kentucky Derby, just ask I Want Revenge or Eskandraya

05 Apr 2011 1:57 PM
Householder

Draynay

Santa Anita winner= Derby loser= Indian Charlie.

The horse that has come closest to winning a Triple Crown since Affirmed was soundly beaten in the Santa Anita Derby by Mo's dad who also went to the Kentucy Derby undefeated.

My tip of the day is to go 2-3 deep with the Santa Anita Derby my friend.  Put them on the underside with Mo if you like.

05 Apr 2011 2:02 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I think PREPEG is a horse to look at.

05 Apr 2011 2:03 PM
Mike Relva

If Dialed In warrants any neg comments wonder about the losers in that race?

05 Apr 2011 2:04 PM
GoldenBroom

I think Draynay is right on...you need to be proven on the Churchill track (think how Blame took down Z, Mo, Dialed In) or be ok with dirt (and a lot of it) kicked in your face and weaving, stopping, starting, dodging traffic. Given the number of green horses, I think running in the "mob" (20) field is going to really mess with their confidence. The Factor and a few others with early speed who get a good draw AND a good break, might have a chance...if they like the track. But Mo has early speed and likes it...so where is the advantage there?

05 Apr 2011 2:04 PM
Iván

Jason, I see Uncle Mo a much better horse than the rest of his class. The only question that I have with him is his toughness and fitness level. What do you expect from the Wood? I think Pletcher should tell Johnny V. to ask him for all he's got, looking to have a tight fit horse for the Derby. The Wood should be a canter for him, but if he gallops all the way to teh finishe line, I think there is a risk he can be a short horse for the Derby. Jut my humble opinion. And I dodn't like the Florida Derby at all. Is it me or Dialed In's late push seems much stronger at at one turn distance?

05 Apr 2011 2:08 PM
Betsy

I still like Stay Thirsty, but since he's immature, he probably should not go to KY.

THAS is unrateable - and he can't run past a mile. I know he won the Remsen, but looking back, it wasn't that great of a performance. I'm really surprised that Mott is leaning towards going to KY as the horse as absolutely no shot and will be fried. He might be ok down the line, but not on the first Saturday in May.

05 Apr 2011 2:09 PM
Johnny

I gotta ask how long have some us been tracking the ponies?

Go back in the Hx books and it is the same talk year after year..

These horses are still babies!

They change weekly that is the excitment of the game..One of my favorite angles is a promising 3 year old that took the last half of the year of and is having his first start as a 4 year old..

In the paddock Schackelford[sp] was the most visually impressive horse to me and got my $$..

No-one here can say for sure that that horse won't get better and that is a fact..

My biggest debate right now is if I am over looking the obvious with Uncle Mo and trying to hard to beat him?

Have a feeling we could see another huge KY Derby payout with all the speed coming in.

What if Schackelford[sp] gets in more speed and he oozes endurance..

05 Apr 2011 2:13 PM
Gio's Ponti

I'm tossing anyone going to the KD from the FD.  Uncle Mo would have passed Shackleford by running backwards in the stretch.  

05 Apr 2011 2:22 PM
Tony Bada Bing

In agreement with most of what you wrote with the exception of Soldat. He trained with the idea of following horses, not leading them for the Florida Derby. The experiment failed and depending on post position draw, if he can draw outside The Factor or even Shakleford, if he gets in, he might have a shot to at least hit the board. Slop moves him way up. Dialed In is what he is - a nice closer that didn't display the fastest kick in the FLA Derby, just enougha turn-of-foot to win...

05 Apr 2011 2:23 PM
Gio's Ponti

Hey I agree with the Draynay.

I'm hoping to get 8-5 on Uncle Mo in the Derby but that's a longshot.

05 Apr 2011 2:25 PM
Zookeeper

A month is a long time in horse racing. So much can happen between now and the big day. Dr D. is right. Let's run the last few preps, see how the horses come out of them and see how the works at CD prepare all contenders for the Derby. It's OK to have favorites at this time but Eskendereya and I Want Revenge should have taught us something about handing the race to a horse a month prior to the event. Looking at Lucky was a lesson in the importance of post position. And I'm not even mentioning the blessed weather... So yeah! it's still too early! Spring may be here but the KD is not. :)

05 Apr 2011 2:28 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

You keep thinking that Mo is the one and only. Good luck !!!!! Only one Grade One has been run and you're ready for next year. Who do you like for Derby 2012 ??!!!!

05 Apr 2011 2:34 PM
Trebloc

Draynay just nailed how to play this years Derby.  Only play those that have won over the Churchill track.  Dialed In, Uncle Mo, Brethren, Santiva and Astrology.  

05 Apr 2011 2:34 PM
Jason Shandler

It's a fair point David A. In the case of Soldat and Shackleford, I think pace played a huge factor from one race to the next. But it does seem a bit off that the margins in those races you mentioned are so wide.

Ivan: Mo should win by daylight. If he doesnt, I will be disappointed.

05 Apr 2011 2:36 PM
wgs

If shakleford held on to deadheat  .How would you then assess  Dialled Ins performsnce/

05 Apr 2011 2:41 PM
ezbreeze

Jason,

It's a bit presumptious on your part to say Dialed In will have to circle the entire field in the Derby because of his running style. Have you forgotten Street Sense and Mind that Bird? Also, if 25% of the field ran a great race, how is the Fla Derby deemed a downer? ? ?  

05 Apr 2011 2:46 PM
Trebloc

Dr Drunkinbum, I think Lisa T wins the 2012 Derby...........Supercharger will be going for the three peat.....

05 Apr 2011 2:51 PM
Jason Shandler

ezbreeze: I didnt say Dialed In couldn't circle the field in the Derby. I only said he will have to in order to win. It can happen, as we all know. I happen to prefer horses with tactical speed in the Derby. Dialed In has none.

05 Apr 2011 2:55 PM
PonyBologna

I'm sure to catch heat for this but why is THAS a bust after not returning to his 2yo form yet Uncle Mo is the next Big Brown after running a 89BSF(-34pf) last out in a 1m race?

8 total dosage points, no horse with less than 14 has won the Derby since 1950. Just sayin, maybe we shouldn't be so quick to annoint Mo as the king just yet.

05 Apr 2011 2:58 PM
Carlos in Cali

Back in early January,someone(Ranagulzion) asked me who were my Derby horses and I mentioned: Rogue Romance(injured),THS,Dialed In,Premier Pegasus(b4 he 2-turned)& Jaycito.With the exception of Rogue Romance I'm still looking pretty good,I'll find out more in the SA Derby next week.

To Honor and Serve improved a bit from his 3yo debut,he was pressing the pace from the dead-rail for most of the race until he had to slightly steady and then Gomez angled him outside of Shackleford turning for home.Though he again shortened stride in the stretch,he held on for 3rd.Mott will most likely take him to KY figuring 3rd race back will be his best,can't argue w/that,but will it be enough?.. I was looking for him to hang-in-there a little longer.

Dialed In has consistently closed from far back on the speed favoring GP surface, you have to be impressed by it.He's a lightly raced stone-cold closer who takes to the Churchill surface and you know Zito will have him fully cranked for the Derby.Don't be surprised to see him run a Strike The Gold type of race..

05 Apr 2011 2:59 PM
Draynay

Watch the Timely Writer again and watch how easily Uncle Mo wins.  Then watch his races from last year.  Sometimes when greatness is right in our face we just don't see it.  Rachel Alexandra was the greatest 3 year old I have ever seen.  She dominated her races and was perfection all year long.  Will we ever see perfection like that again?  I believe it is possible in Uncle Mo.  I don't see him losing all year.  We will see.  He has a lot to do to surpass the greatest 3 year old of our time Rachel Alexandra.

05 Apr 2011 3:11 PM
Johnny

A thought.

What if you were high on Soldat prior to the FL Derby he throws in his first lifetime clunker for some unknown reason?

He goes to the KY Derby training great do you draw a line thru his fl derby effort?

Could be a classic overlay..

05 Apr 2011 3:13 PM
Derby man

Todd Pletcher says its not a good sign when the fillies run a second faster than the colts even on different days. How does he feel about Stay Thirsty running about 7 seconds slower. And he is still running him in The Derby. If the Derby was an invitational .. he wouldn't be invited.

05 Apr 2011 3:27 PM
Jason Shandler

Pletcher has one chance in the Derby and its not Stay Thirsty or Brethren. He knows that as well as anyone.

05 Apr 2011 3:36 PM
Aaron from Louisville

To Honor and Serve reminds me of Drosselmeyer. Mott brought him along slowly and things set up for him in the Big one. The same could be said for To Honor and Serve. I still think he has a big shot to take the roses, if things go his way maybe. Speaking of Dialed In, remember when Barbaro was all out to beat another Romans Horse Sharp Humor and then took the roses. Watch out!

05 Apr 2011 3:38 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali & Laz,

Come on guys THAS has no shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.  He'll be a better horse in the summer or Fall.  Its a pedigree issue.

Carlos you and I can agree for a change about Dialed In.  If Uncle Mo appears short of conditioning in or after the Wood I'll defect to Dialed In with a great deal of confidence because right now he's running on raw talent.  His pedigree dictates that he's on an improvement trajectory that should peak in the summer/fall.  Also Nick Zito has been handling him with kids gloves therefore he has a lot of scope for stepping up a notch or two.

There are a couple of other under-the-radar colts that I'm watching carefully: Watch Me Go and Saratoga Red.  Pay attenton to the Illinois Derby and Arkansas Derby respectively.

Right now my top 12 are:

1)Uncle Mo 2)Dialed In 3)Premier Pegasus 4)The Factor 5)Soldat (deserves another chance in his favoured running style) 6)Mucho Macho Man 7)Santiva 8)Watch Me Go 9)Jaycito 10)Anthony's Cross 11)Saratoga Red 12)Animal Kingdom

05 Apr 2011 3:48 PM
LDP

Street Sense and MTB did not circle the field, they circled the rail and one or 2 other horses. Dialed In will not have Bo-Rail keeping him on the rail. He will either be forced 8-10 wide on the final turn or get stuck in traffic. If he gets hung wide he will flatten out like he did in the FD. Yes, I consider a 13.75 final furlong flattening out. If he gets into traffic he will be running on way too late.

With the lack of real speed in this race it will not surprise me if the Factor isn't pushed super hard early on. If that happens it will be hard to take the lead from him, as I do think he is one of those horses who will fight like a bull dog if allowed to have the lead, even if it is contested. However if he misses the break and the lead I don't see him as a factor. He reminds me of War Pass in that way. Guts/brilliance when he gets the lead, but wants no part of running if he doesn't have the lead from start to finish.

PrePeg has the tactical speed if needed to stay close, or he can sit mid pack and burst through with that turn of foot. I know the pace collapsed in the San Felipe, however it hardly leads to that dominant of a win. I would say wait and see what he does this weekend before contributing everything to a pace meltdown.

Mo is by far the most talented and professional horse of his class. People who say he can't rate, look at his Breeders Cup Juvenile. If that is not rating then nothing is. He shouldn't have to demonstrate it over again this year, when he already showed it so successfully once, and has shown no signs of rankness since then. He can rate on or near the lead, because he is so relaxed. It doesn't matter if he is pressured, check the Champagne, the horse doesn't care if he has another at his throatlatch. His cruising speed is so high that a 23 for him is like running a 25. Because of these things, he can still rocket home after a fast pace. Anyone wants to call him QR, remember that QR could not often times rate on the lead then explode home. The TW, Mo did just that. Even older grade one winners that get the pace their own way can't come home in 22 and change.

Of course we have to see how he runs in the Wood, but if he comes out and beats the pants off of the comeptition, there is no denying that it would take something huge to keep this colt from taking the Derby.

05 Apr 2011 3:51 PM
Runfast159

I totally agree with you Jason.  But given that I've said the talent level of this group of 3 year olds is highly suspect anyways I can't say I was at all surprised that several "contenders" didn't fire.

I'm glad Dialed In got up for the win.  I loved him in the Holy Bull and while I was disappointed with that allowance race I didn't dismiss him.  He is a horse that would have what it takes to win the Derby.  He can sit behind the trouble and grind it out to the end.  And in a field like he's going to face in the Derby it's a distinct possibility he will do just that with the right pace scenario.

I'm not dismissing Uncle Mo by any means, but the post position is going to play a much bigger role in his race than it will for Dialed In.

05 Apr 2011 3:55 PM
derbylock

Wasn't Stay Thirsty the "lapped on" workmate for Uncle Mo all winter and spring? Just saying ST just got dusted by 20 in that horrible Florida Derby. HMMM! What will happen when some real improving 3 year olds look Mo in the eye? He's not going to find any in NY, so lets wait  for his real test in May. Can't wait!!!

05 Apr 2011 3:57 PM
joeywoge

Uncle Mo is a good horse, he is far from a great horse and still has a ton to prove.I honestly can't understand why he has not raced at 1 1/8th yet. The Wood is looking more and more like the Timely Writer. A joke!! I hope he wins by 10 so he will be 6-5 come Derby day and he won't get a penny of my money. He needs to be challenged and that doesn't look like it will happen on saturday. His stablemate Stay Thirsty should Stay Home!!

          Regarding the Fla Derby. By the way the most competitive race so far this year on paper. Say what you want about the final time but you can't deny that Dialed In ran a heck of a race. The track was speed favoring all day and he still won. Churchill is not like that. The track will be much more fair on Derby day!!

Shackleford- Heck of a race for a horse that everyone gave up on (including me) but to go to the front on Derby day is suicide.I hope he gets in because I need pace.

THAS- Very interesting horse come derby day. I've seen it in the past. Sometimes horses just don't like GP. They come to CD or Belmont and they love it and become a different horse. Maybe the climate was no good for him. Who knows. He is still a question mark.

Soldat- He has the tactical speed and stamina to get the Derby distance. If they enter and he gets an outside post and is able to avoid alot of dirt getting kicked back into his face it could be a different outcome for him. Inside post he would be in trouble. A chance you might have to take.

Flashpoint- Best 3 year old sprinter in the country. By far. Broke badly in the fla derby and gave himself no chance at that point. Could have shocked alot of people if he had the lead early.

Looking forward to the SA Derby, Ark Derby and the Blue Grass. Some interesting horses that can make some noise come Derby day. I disagree with Draynay. West coast horses are the real deal this year!!

05 Apr 2011 4:04 PM
Carlos in Cali

All I'm saying is no matter how well you rate,chasing a fast pace in the Derby/10f is a whole different animal.And there will be a solid pace for the Derby,bet on it.

05 Apr 2011 4:16 PM
draynay

joeywoge, you have made it obvious you're a beginner.  California horses simply fill in a few posts.  No one actually thinks they can win a Derby and this year will be no different.  California horses have no chance.

05 Apr 2011 4:29 PM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 You nailed it with your visually impressive comment. Reminded me of Harlan's Holiday Florida Derby. Looked awesome until you studied the fractions. The most impressive horse was Shackleford.

 Face it folks, this is a weak crop of three year olds with the exception of Uncle Mo. I still have serious doubts about him getting the distance. 1 out of 478 and I'm supposed to believe he is gonna be number 2? That's buckin some pretty big odds.

05 Apr 2011 4:36 PM
WILD HORSES

I think UM is still at the top, but I don't know if he's going to be battle tested enough. If he's that far above the rest of the class then it won't matter. I'll also use other horses that have been proven over the CD track. I wouldn't throw out all the horses from the SA derby though now that it's on dirt. Prepeg could be anything, let's see Sat. We'll get a better idea if the Cal form might hold up. I also am DIALED IN for the Derby. I think he ran very well in the FD closing open lengths(14) on a speed favoring track to get up. I think he'll improve off that, he'll need to. MMM is a sneaky one too, he has alot of grow up potental. He ran well despite losing a shoe and a piece of his hoof at the gate.

05 Apr 2011 4:38 PM
the_wiz

I too was dissapointed in the results of the Fla. Derby. In my opinion nobody ran the type of race it will take to win on May 7th. Dialed In came home too slow and falls too far behind to be a major threat. He seems to flatten out in the stretch and I just don't think he'll ever make the lead at Churchill.  

I agree with Relva that Pre-Peg should not be dismissed and may be very tough on May 7th. He's very high on my list and has been since his last race. I'm not ruling out The Factor yet either,I'm really looking forward to the Ark. Derby for him. How he handles the race and his LP figs from that race will tell me all I need to know.

With that said Mo still has to prove he can improve with distance. I'm not doubting he will and like everyone else is anxiously awaiting the Wood.

I hope Nehro gets in, he'll be a sentimental choice of mine somewhere in the exotics if goes and he runs well in the Ark. Derby. I like the big improvement in his early Bris figs and the fact he maintained very good LP figs in his last race. He's a sleeper. I see Mucho Macho Man as the "Giacamo" of this years crowd if everything falls apart like in 2005 and Mo ends up like Afleet Alex that year who undeniably was the most talented of the bunch but being too close to the fast pace did him in. MMM is a stayer who always keeps close who could benefit from a very fast pace and frontrunner meltdowns.  

Because Mo has ducked the top 3 yr olds so far this year and the fact that those who have tackled each other keep dissapointing we may end up with the lowest price favorite in the Derby in a long time. If that happens one has to take a stab at beating Mo someway. Back in 2008 I hit a huge payoff playing Big Brown in a superfecta only while taking a few shots against him elsewhere. Coming out of the 20 hole I figured he'll be good enough to win or he won't show up at all. His undeniable edge in talent was the only way I could play him from that far out. Might be the same strategy this time around.

05 Apr 2011 4:41 PM
Freetex

As we all know the weather and post positions can change everything on Derby day, not to mention if it rains and Calvin is on Elite Alex or another contender who makes it on graded earnings.

I am looking at horses with heart and great trainers.  A couple are top contenders and a few are under the radar.  I've learned the hard way to look at 2nd, 3rd, and a couple 4th, 5th, finishers in the prep races.  The winners don't necessarily win the Kentucky Derby.

05 Apr 2011 4:41 PM
Alexaso

I am certainly glad people like Dialed In's win and I am even more happy that people are still actually considering Soldat and To Honor and Serve as Derby contenders. The second part is just completely mind boggling to me.

05 Apr 2011 4:43 PM
Carlos in Cali

LDP,  QR did rate and exploded home in all of his wins.The thing is,he couldn't do that when he faced a stiffer pace & competition going 10f,...

Forget the Alamo: Remember what happened to Snow Chief & Point Given when they had to chase a quick Derby pace while getting sanwhiched in-between other horses?

Now,if it comes-up sloppy again then it's anybody's race to win.

05 Apr 2011 5:01 PM
RJPPDP

I must be naive or something but didn't Indian Charlie come in third in the derby. Smarty Jones pedigree wasn't the greatest for the distance but he almost managed to win the triple crown. Why is it we try to find so many faults in a good horse and find reasons why another should still do well after a bad race. I think that Uncle Mo is the one to beat right now. On the other hand, I will not put all my eggs in one basket on the first Saturday in May. I enjoy everyone's reasoning on keeping certain horses(Soldat, THAS) and dismissing others. It gives me insight that I may not have seen prior to making my weekly derby list. The truth is, the Kentucky Derby beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I only hope that my beauties show up on derby day and show the whole world what I have seen since Saratoga.

05 Apr 2011 5:03 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Let me tell you something about CA horses. Last yr in Derby,LAT WAS THE BEST HORSE in the race,but done in by the post he drew. Ask Jason if he thinks I'm that far off.

05 Apr 2011 5:18 PM
LDP

Carlos,

His biggest wins came when he was able to use his speed and not just sit on the lead. His weapon was his speed not his burst. He was simply so fast that if a horse tried to press him they got ran off their feet. The Hals Hope was not explosive, neither was the Whitney or Woodward. His Donn and Met demonstrate what I'm talking about. Once he got going he just kept going. He did not have that burst that horses like Blame, Afleet Alex, and Uncle Mo seem to have.

Mo has shown the ability to not only run others off their feet, but kick things up another notch and fly home like a closer. That will make him tough to beat.

05 Apr 2011 5:18 PM
Mike Relva

LDP

How's college? I can see a few things getting Mo beat next month,drawing post 1 for starters.

05 Apr 2011 5:27 PM
Mike Relva

Seriously doubt not one reader,including myself picked MTB two yrs ago. Like someone on here said,alot can happen between now and next month. Some that think they have it all figured out in Jan. regarding who will win in May are living in a fantasy world.

05 Apr 2011 5:41 PM
ptrckj7777

Every year it's always "just an average bunch of three year olds"until december when the dust clears and we can see who was great and who was average.

05 Apr 2011 5:44 PM
slyder

You have to be able to finish to have a shot at winning the Ky. Derby. Stick this one in your memory bank come Derby Day:

You have to go back alot of years with the exception of "The Fluke" in 2009 to find a Ky. Derby winner who lost ground from the 3rd call to the finish in his race prior to the Derby. Even,Giacamo,Charismatic,

and Funny Cide who lit the boards in their victories qualified under these criteria. I believe Monarchos who went off at better than 10/1 did the same. It's a starting point for elimination but it can eliminate some big name contenders. Last year it eliminated Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, and Jackson Bend who alot of people liked along with Line of David, Make Music For Me, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Awesome Act,and Backtalk. That made things much easier to narrow down since another 9 were toss outs anyway unless you had a sentimental choice (Noble's Promise, Stately Victor, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Devil May Care, Mission Impazzible, Dublin, Homeboykris, and Sidney's Candy from the 20 hole). Two left, Super Saver, and Ice Box. The rest is history.

05 Apr 2011 5:55 PM
Householder

The winner of the Wood has produced the Kentucky Derby winner once in the last 30 years!  The Wood has been littered with great ones like Tapit, Empire Maker, Unbridled's Song, Congaree, Gulch, Easy Goer, Slew O Gold, Broad Brush. Some were Derby favorites...none won the Derby.  

How many Kentucky Derby winners has the winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile produced?

05 Apr 2011 5:57 PM
whoapony

Hey Draynay, I realize it's unthinkable that you would be wrong when you tell people your horse of choice can't lose (Quality Road), but I don't see that the Wood has had anymore positive impact on the triple crown than the SA Derby.  Since 1978, three Derby winners and two second place finishers have won the SA Derby in their final prep.  This doesn't take into account horses like Silver Charm and Giacomo that lost at Santa Anita before taking the roses.  Plus, you have horses like AP Indy and Point Given who either didn't run in or win the Derby but won classics and were voted best of their generation.

In the same period of time, only two Wood winners have gone on to win at Churchill and Funny Cide turned his Wood second to Derby victory.  

Santa Anita is a dirt track again and has a long history of sending horses to Kentucky that are factors in the race.  Don't be too quick to dismiss the California crowd.  

05 Apr 2011 6:03 PM
Householder

Look what Easy Goer did prior to the Derby. His Wood win was spectacular.  I was at Santa Anita that day watching the Santa Anita Derby.  I remember the crowd being pretty silent after the Wood but prior to the SA Derby post time. Who is going to beat that?  Then Churchill comes up a little muddy and he never gets out of second gear running like 2:08 or something.  Then Pat Day moves him too soon in the Preakness and it is suddenly Sunday Silence 2, Easy Goer 0.  

Here's to finding that $17,000 yearling purchase that can take down a 2 Year Old Champion.  

05 Apr 2011 6:23 PM
furlongs

Draynay-

You shouldn't make comments on others such as they must be a beginner. I mean you been on this blog forever and far as I can see you know less then anyone on here when it comes to what a winner looks like. I mean outside of Brethren first win at Tampa ($3.20) and Uncle Mo ($2.10) in the Timely Writer I can't recall you choosing a winner in these prep races all winter long. By the way we are still talking about DIALED IN!! Your pick Soldat looked like he needed Oxygen in mid stretch. His trainer thinks it was the inside post and the dirt in his face, he doesn't read these blogs otherwise he would know what really happened, you thought he couldn't lose!! I know its hard but stop trying to be a know it all cause its making you look dumber then you really are. Good luck at the windows everyone...

05 Apr 2011 6:29 PM
IOWay

I would guess that almost no one blogging here picked War Emblem, Giacomo, Mine that Bird or even Super Saver.  Perhaps Uncle Mo in this crop is another Barbaro or Big Brown but it is hard to know that based on what he has done so far this year. Point Given and Afleet Alex were arguably the best race horses in their respective crops yet neither won the Derby. It is awfully hard to start making guarantees about who will win on May 7 but it would be great for horse racing if whoever does could also win the next two.  I still suspect that the hope is that by keeping Uncle Mo fresh his connections hope that he has enough natural talent to win the Derby off this light schedule and then be fresh enough to win the next two.

05 Apr 2011 7:35 PM
Forbidden Apple

It sounds like sour grapes from all of the To Honor And Serve, Flashpoint, and Stay Thirsty fans. Soldat ran poorly but deserves another chance on dirt. If he runs poorly again, he just might be a TURF Champion. Of course the race is bad when you pick a horse like THAS to win and he clunks up for third. I understand the pain of picking the wrong horse to win. By the way, Shackleford had no idea that he was 60-1, all he did was run hard. The simple facts are that Dialed In won the race and will only improve in his next start. He had 1 workout going into the FL Derby. How can anyone say that he struggled home? Leparoux only cracked him with the whip 3 or 4 times. He is built with power and stamina, the 1 1/4 mile distance will fit him perfectly.

Someone wrote that it will take something huge to beat Uncle Mo. The 20 horse field of talented colts is what is huge and going to beat him down. He jogged to win the Timely Writer Derby. Now he is going to be lined up against a fresh batch of cupcakes in the Wood Memorial. Some of you folks need to be reminded that The Factor will be running hard on the front end. Premier Pegasus will be sitting just off the pace and waiting to pounce. And then Dialed In will be winding up his late kick around the far turn. This might not be the best crop ever, but there is talent in more horses than Uncle Mo. Just ask Julian Leparoux if Dialed In was all out to win.

05 Apr 2011 7:43 PM
Jason Shandler

The clock doesnt lie. Mo galloped out in 1:49. Dialed In was all out to win in 1:50 over a horse that set a torrid pace. You're in denial.

05 Apr 2011 7:51 PM
Forbidden Apple

NO, I'm Dialed In to the KY winner. I don't care if he won in 1:51, his best is yet to come. Maybe you should call Nick and ask him how cranked up he had his horse off from one breeze. And ask him if the race will only make his colt tighter. His horse did what he had to do and he brought home the money. That is what closers do, they wait on the speed and then strike.

05 Apr 2011 8:00 PM
Footlick

What I saw from Dialed In was a horse who was lightly trained and still short of his best, running down a horse with hand urging and only a couple of smacks.  I don't consider that all out and I don't think Mr zito thought he would win.  I definately think that Mr Zito can tighten him up quite a bit.  His running style is a concern, but many of you are talking like he was at his best in the FL Derby and Zito is too good a trainer to have done that.  They have barely worked this horse, so he had to be short for this race wioth their eye on Kentucky.  Just my observation.

05 Apr 2011 8:03 PM
GunBow

Jason:

I am with you on your impressions of the Florida Derby and the Derby chances of the horses coming from the race.

Dialed In deserves credit for closing at Gulfstream, but the pace played to his late run, and even Leparoux admitted this after the race. Dialed In also deserves credit for winning 2 big stakes like the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in just 4 career starts.  So, clearly there is some talent.  

But while he made a big move to reach contention in the Florida Derby, he really didn't go on that well the final eighth.  Is his late run really going to be better with another eighth of a mile, and with possible traffic problems?  

Watching the race, my first impressions were that the Florida Derby was weak, and studying it further hasn't changed my opinion.  The only thing that keeps Dialed In up near the top of my rankings is that so few other horses have impressed either.

05 Apr 2011 8:22 PM
LDP

Mike,

College is good, lol. Keeps me busy. The one post would certainly cause a problem. LAL had the worst luck a colt could get last year. It does not seem like Mo has that kind of luck.

05 Apr 2011 8:42 PM
Mike Relva

JASON

Yeah,your correct about Mo. But,he's still got to load in the gate and win Derby day,although many obviously think he's already done it.

05 Apr 2011 9:06 PM
GunBow

To Soldat and To Honor and Serve fans:

Yes, it is true that there have been Derby winners that did not run well in their final prep.  But consider these facts.

Soldat:

In the 36 Kentucky Derbys I have studied(1975-2010), not one Derby winner ran worse than 4th in its last prep race.  That doesn't bode well for Soldat.  

When we expand the analysis and look at the last two preps of Derby winners since 1975, only one had run worse than 4th in either of its last two preps.  In 1981, Pleasant Colony ran 5th in his 2nd to last prep, ironically the Florida Derby.  However, he bounced back from that poor effort to win the Wood, an effort that had him in the necessary condition to win the Derby and Preakness.

Even when looking at Kentucky Derby runner-ups, the news is not good for Soldat fans.  In the 26 Kentucky Derbys between 1985 and 2010, only one Derby runner-up finished worse than 4th in its final prep.

However, the good news for Soldat fans is that the one Derby runner- up of the last 26 years to run worse than 4th in its final prep was Bet Twice, who was 5th in the Florida Derby.  And like Soldat, Bet Twice had won the Fountain of Youth in his race preceding the Florida Derby.  So, a horse has bounced back from a performance as bad as Soldat and run 2nd in the Derby, but it has only happened once the last 26 years.(I went back to 84' and found that the Derby runner-up, Coax Me Chad, had run 6th in his final prep, the Jim Beam).

To Honor and Serve:

There have been 8 Derby winners over the last 36 years that ran 3rd or 4th in their final prep.  However, the problem is that THAS also ran 3rd in his race before the Florida Derby.  And historically, that's a problem.  In the last 36 years, only ONE Derby winner ran 3rd or worse in both of his final two preps.  In 1993, Sea Hero ran 4th in the Blue Grass after running 3rd in an allowance ran on the turf.

Obviously, the above statistics virtually eliminate a horse like Stay Thirsty, who ran even worse than Soldat.  But who knows?  Mine That Bird had no shot according to almost all the historical indicators(4th in last prep, no Beyers over 100, gelding, ran preps in New Mexico, no stakes win over dirt, etc).

05 Apr 2011 9:13 PM
The Rock

That Nashua/Remsen double that horses have been taking down the last 3 years have not bode well going into the horses respective 3 year old campaign (THAS, Buddy's Saint, Old Fashioned)

05 Apr 2011 9:16 PM
WILD HORSES

We can pretty much dismiss most of what Draynaysayer posts. He has always disliked California horses, down to one of the most popular,exciting and consistant racemares to ever live. He usually focuses on one horse and rags on all the rest. Last year he was all about Quality Road and how there was no way he wouldn't win the classic. After that I didn't see a post from him for quite awhile. Guess when your horse finishes LAST there isn't much elso to say. If UM doesn't win the Derby we won't see his posts for awhile, just as well. I like UM, but he is somewhat untested as a 3 yr old, so it's hard to get a guage on him. I would love to see another star emerge, God knows racing needs it, but there are more possibilities than just one.

05 Apr 2011 9:17 PM
JG Indiana

I got a couple questions if anybody wants to comment, is there normally more 100's speed ratings turned in the preps by now? what is the criteria of running the last part in under 13 secs(?) who fits that? wasn't sure where to find that info. I kinda like mucho macho man, Jaycito, and may give Soldat another shot.

05 Apr 2011 9:19 PM
Paula Higgins

I couldn't agree with you more Jason. A very underwhelming Florida Derby. I still think Uncle Mo has the best shot in the Derby. Then I agree with Mike Relva, Premiere Pegasus is one of the other two that could challenge him. The second horse who has a chance is The Factor if he can go the distance. I think he can. But as people have pointed out, a late bloomer who isn't even on our radar could surprise us all, especially in a 20 horse field. I also agree with the person who said they would push Mo a little in the Wood. They need to make this more than a day at the beach type race.

05 Apr 2011 9:28 PM
Carlos in Cali

If UM would've ran reasonable splits for the first 6f I doubt he gallops out in 1:49. He's above average :)  and he certainly is not a lock for the Derby even if he airs vs. that weak bunch in the Wood Memorial.

The thing some people are overlooking is that Dialed In has been bucking the trend @ GP with his last-to-first moves.So he has a right to maybe tire a bit since he's basically running against the grain.CD is different and he'll get a solid pace to run down,I know Zito wouldn't trade places with anyone right now.

05 Apr 2011 9:31 PM
skyfire

You are right, Jason.  The Florida Derby did not produce the result that I was expecting from the two Bernardini's: THS and Stay Thirsty.  Well, even Secretariat didn't win his last race before the Derby (he did have an abscess in his mouth).

Uncle Mo and The Factor, and PP out west look the best of the bunch to me.

05 Apr 2011 9:39 PM
Footlick

LDP-Welcome back.

05 Apr 2011 9:41 PM
BettyS

Premier Pegasus

Dialed In

Uncle Mo

05 Apr 2011 9:44 PM
Mike Relva

FORBIDDEN APPLE

Agree!

05 Apr 2011 9:46 PM
Footlick

Forbidden Apple- my thought exactly.  He looked like a horse who still needed a race being lightly trained.  To me, Mr Zito is racing the horse into shape and now will start to crank him up training wise.  Dialed In was hit twice with the whip, only twice as far as I could tell.  Otherwise he was being hand ridden, and it was a vigorous hand ride, I will admit.  But he put an internal 47 and change half to get into contention, and did it while going wide.  To me it was a good race to continue to move forward.  If the pace was torrid, as Jason said, then the track must have been deep and tiring because it looked like an honest pace to me but not out of control.

05 Apr 2011 9:49 PM
sodapopkid

I have a question?   Has anyone asked Ted from LA who he is predicting  the Kentucky Derby winner will be?

IF you haven't, I think it's high time you do.

05 Apr 2011 10:14 PM
Scottie

How is that an apt comparison, jshandler?  Uncle Mo didn't have to break a sweat in the early stages of the Timely Writer, it was a paid workout.  Of course he'll come home quicker.  Dialed In ran much quicker 2nd and 3rd fractions and was attempting to run down a pacesetter on a speed favoring track.  Dialed In was also the only horse to improve his position in the final 3/8th on Sunday. Nobody else passed a single horse in the final 3 furlongs.  

If Uncle Mo has to work harder in the early stages of the Timely Writer do you really think he would have galloped out in 1:49?  I don't.

I'm also not sure how you can claim that Dialed In doesn't have a good late kick?  While the  FlaDerby wasn't a good final split, his two previous races saw him come home in 12.35 (into a zero pace race) and 24.16, and he came home in 30.24 in his maiden win.  To say he doesn't have a late kick is completely inaccurate.  He may not win the Derby (and I agree the trip will make it difficult), but he can kick on for home just fine.

I have no doubt that Uncle Mo is the better horse and has run the better races, but I think you're oversimplifying the comparison.

05 Apr 2011 10:19 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Your right Jason...as they were passing the quarter pole, and potential Derby winners were dropping like flys, all I could think was; Uncle Mo will crush the Derby field, providing nothing bizarre happens in the running, which is always a possiblilty with such a large field

05 Apr 2011 10:49 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Another thing....After reading some of these posts,I am dumbfounded how clueless some people are.......the reason Uncle Mo has not faced big fields is because NO ONE WANTS TO RUN AGAINST HIM. There is a reason why the Arkansas Derby and Santa Ainta Derby and The Bluegrass will have large fields and the Wood, which is just as prestigous will have a short field....its not the horses' fault nor TP.

05 Apr 2011 10:57 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Jason,

What do you expect to learn from Mo in the Wood?  He will be a 1-20 in a short untalented field.  You are 1/2 right in that the Santa Anita will be one of the races to watch.

I agree with The_Wiz that MMM is the horse to watch out for come derby day.  To do what he did in the LA Derby losing a shoe out of the gate was a great showing and I believe he is set up to run a big race May 7.  

The Arkansas Derby sure does look like a race with a growing talent pool and class all around.  I will likely be using the top two from SA Derby, the top two from the AR Derby with MMM come derby day and take a stand against Mo and Dialed in and see what happens.

05 Apr 2011 11:14 PM
John

Ready for the question of the week?

After Uncle Mo wins the Wood Memorial against another suspect field - which race will Uncle Mo's connections watch with the most interest - the Santa Anita Derby with Premier Pegasus or the Arkansas Derby with The Factor?

05 Apr 2011 11:23 PM
John

Mike Relva,

..."I can see a few things getting Mo beat...".

Mike, you can also add:

(1) an uninspiring Derby prep campaign racing against nobodies thus producing a "cupcake" against battle ready juenviles

(2) a horse called The Factor, whom may just run away with the Derby

(3)an #18-20 post position for Uncle Mo meaning there will be a wall of horses in front of him racing to the first turn pushing him completely out of the race (see Judger)

(4) somewhere between 6-10 horses jumping to the front on Uncle Mo and kicking dirt in his face for the first time in his life

(5) Premier Pegasus running to his pedigree and putting on an exhibition for the ages

(6) Uncle Mo's pedigree hampering him (just like Indian Charlie) and folding like a cheap tent down the stretch

(7) the track coming up sloppy meaning a free for all

05 Apr 2011 11:51 PM
Justine

@IOWay I picked War Emblem! Didn't bet, though; I was too young and nobody else in my family was interested in horse racing. Boo.

I figure Dialed In will at least impact the superfecta but yeah, he's gonna have to run hella faster at the end if he's gonna win it. Mo's still the one to beat but I'll back PrePeg any day, everyday. Gotta support my fellow SoCal horses, :D

06 Apr 2011 12:26 AM
Rachel

I kicked myself for not boxing Shackleford with Dialed In (I used Soldat), but I was happy I did put a "show" bet on him...!

06 Apr 2011 5:56 AM
SophieK

I heard it through the grapevine from a very legitimate source that Uncle Mo had surgery after the BC. Has anyone else heard that? I mean we all knew from workouts at PM that Eskendereya had something wrong with him way before the Wood. But I forgot the public isnt privy to this info......

06 Apr 2011 7:58 AM
JerseyBoy

Carlos in Cali:

I never make excuses for horses. I judge them by what they do. Note however, that To Honor And Serve has been running way below his 2yo form.

The reason could be this. In mild weather his Speed Fig+Track Variant averages 104. In hot weather it averages 94.

He has never won a race in hot weather. He is unbeaten in mild weather. His highest number in hot weather is 97. His highest number in mild weather is 112. Either it is the weather or he is a sprinter. He may also be injured.

06 Apr 2011 8:40 AM
joeywoge

Furlongs, I appreciate you sticking up for me but certainly not necessary. I read his comments all the time. He is a chalk player, that's obvious. I've been around the block a few times. Have had some winner's and loser's. Like most of us have. The banter on here is all in good fun. I particularly love the people that said they picked Mine That Bird a few year's ago. Give me a break. Unless you like Birds or your birthday was on the 8th there was no way you handicapped the derby that year and came up with Mine That Bird. Bottom line the derby is the hardest race to handicap bar none. It is also the most talked about race and the most fun to try and pick the winner. For me personally. I look for value. At the moment betting Uncle Mo has no value.

06 Apr 2011 8:50 AM
dialed out

Dialed In Fla. Derby Beyer 93. Even if you scoff at Beyer Figs this one is so slow it's telling. Hey it might get him 5th-7th in Ky with this sorry bunch.

06 Apr 2011 9:31 AM
SlewStable

  I  read  somewhere  that  Dialed  In  is  the  first  offspring  sired  by  Mineshaft  that  had  won  a  race  at  a  mile  and  an eighth.  If  this  is  a true  statement, why  would  his  pedigree  suggest  that  a  mile  and  a  quarter  is  in   his  reach?

06 Apr 2011 10:41 AM
Pedigree Ann

Well, Ioway, I rarely pick one horse for the Derby because of all the intangibles; Hard Spun and Silver Charm were exceptions. But I had War Emblem and Super Saver (because of Calvin up) on my 'short list', and I had Giacomo in my Road to the Roses Stable, although I had lost the faith a bit by Derby day; I had liked his late-2yo form, reminiscent of Alysheba and Point Given. Not that it helped me in the contest, because I didn't activate him; Afleet Alex was my top choice that day.

06 Apr 2011 10:54 AM
MonicaV

I like Premier Pegasus.  Has a nice way of going.  The Derby is so hard to predict anymore.  The only one I was ever really sure of was Sunday Silence, one of those really bad California horses!

06 Apr 2011 10:58 AM
Billy's Empire

MacClean's Music to race in the Derby Trial? Will not race in Cali again according to Blasi. Interesting. Now, I wonder if Prime Cut runs in Derby Trial? Good way to kick off Derby week.

Watch out for Great Mills against Pluck on Friday. Great Mills won last out on yielding turf on the lead at 7.5 furlongs against Wilcox Inn at FG. Julien up. Throw in Powhotan County, who just beat Animal Kingdom March 3rd after a 6 month break, Air Support, and Adirondack Summer, we have a hell of a race. Shadow Warrior, Casper's Touch, and Matthewsburg run the race prior in a 54,000 allowance.

06 Apr 2011 11:41 AM
Householder

How many out there played Bellamy Road after his 17 length victory in the Wood?  His Wood was 2 seconds faster than Seattle Slew's.  "And down the stretch they come.  Here comes Giacomo!"  

The Wood is cursed.

06 Apr 2011 11:44 AM
Billy's Empire

Rosie to be the 6th woman Jockey to ride in the KY Derby when she rides Pants on Fire. Good for her!

06 Apr 2011 11:52 AM
Mike Relva

PREPEG FOR THE WIN!!!!!!

06 Apr 2011 12:09 PM
LAZMANNICK

Billy's Empire

I think that all of Assmusen's horses are pulling out of Cali probably because they don't want to run at Hollywood so he will station them at CD.  Funny, since he runs a fairly large stable at Woodbine which has a synthetic track.

06 Apr 2011 12:11 PM
LAZMANNICK

Hey, if Mo is the one cheer for him.  Don't let your feelings towards a certain other blogger get in the way.  

06 Apr 2011 12:13 PM
Mike Relva

SARATOGA DREAMIN

Stated that while I'm not a fan of Pletcher's can understand Mo being entered in easy races to keep the tank full on derby day. Having said taht,don't act as if EVERYONE is "clueless" and you aren't. That's BS!

06 Apr 2011 12:15 PM
Mike Relva

LDP

Glad college is going well for you. I think I "enjoyed" my college days a little too much. lol

06 Apr 2011 12:19 PM
LAZMANNICK

Gun Bow

Further to your post about past Derby winners and their preceding race.  Anything can happen, especially when looking at Beyers in that race before the Derby.  The first Beyer recording for a Derby year was 1992, 19 additions of the Derby before this year.  When looking at these winners, I can conclude that anything is possible.

• 1992 – Sea Hero – Previous TB Grass – Finished fading 4th – 91 Beyer.

• 2005– Giacomo – Previous SA Derby – Finished even 4th – 95 Beyer.

• 2007 – Street Sense – Previous TB Grass – Finished even 2nd – 93 Beyer.

• 2009 – Mine That Bird – Previous SUN Derby – Finished fading 4th – 80 Beyer.

• 2010 – Super Saver – Previous Ark Derby – Finished even 2nd – 98 Beyer.

Of the 19 additions, further analysis of the previous race reveals:

• Even finish in the stretch – 2

• Gained Ground in the stretch – 10

• Lost ground in the stretch - 6

06 Apr 2011 12:42 PM
Coldfacts

Jason,

Comments on some point you made:

“With the exception of Dialed In and an unexpected big run from Shackleford, the Florida Derby was largely disappointing”

There were no surprises in the FL derby. I have repeatedly posted on both your blog and that of Steve Haskin that horse like Soldat and Stay Thirsty were slow by derby standard. A lot of SPIN was placed on their respective victories in the Gotham & FOY. Both races were run in the slowest time for the last five years. The emotions associated with these colts blinded the eyes of their supporters. For the first time Solldat was not allowed to crawl his usual24, 48, 1:13 and as I predicted he would be toast when a 23, 46. 1:10 pace was run. I was right. Stay Thirsty highlighted how average he was in the BCJ when he could only finish 3 1/2L & 2 1/2L ahead of the maiden Riveting Reason and bolting Jaycito.  You touted Shakelford after his allowance victory in you piece captioned”Shackleford Passes Test at Gulfstream” Below is the opening paragraph of your piece:

“Dale Romans has had high hopes for Shackleford ever since he broke his maiden in November at Churchill Downs. By handily defeating a good field of winners Feb. 5 at Gulfstream Park while going two turn for the first time, the 3-year-old son of Forestry   showed his trainer he is ready for bigger and better things.”

It is therefore surprising that you are now surprised at his effort. Shakelford allowance fractions were faster than those in the FOY with the exception of the second quarter. He ran a projected time of 1:55 in the FOY suggesting something must have gone wrong. I posted that he should be given another chance as it unusual for any horses to run 5 seconds slower in a race he was expected to be competitive. I made a hefty change off the exactor. I was willing him to victory as it would have given more bragging right.

To Honor and Serve worked a bullet 49 second and I indicated in a post the if 49 seconds was his bullet it is not consistent with a top class colt. I was told the training track is deep. Exceptional horses work fast on deep tacks. This still not fully fit but improved off his FOY effort. I am now sure the two prep plan is being regretted as one more race before the derby would put in a more competitive status. I am not prepared to write him off as his pedigree is the best of the class of 2011 and he has a HOF trainer who is likely to win the derby with a talented long shot. THAS reminds me of Ferdinand who was well bred but very disappointing heading into the derby. His record was 2 wins from 9 starts and he was also 3rd in his last derby prep the SA Derby. Interestingly, Nijinsky the sire of Ferdinand is the sire of THAS third dam. This colt could create a major upset as I also think he does not like the Gulfstream strip.

“With that said, Dialed In's slow final fractions and the average final time cannot be blindly dismissed”

I am in total agreement. When the LA Derby is run in a faster time that the FL Derby it’s a bad sign. The only horse from the FL derby that can win the KD is THAS as he has the credentials but was just not fit enough to show his true potential. Dialed In took forever and a day to pass Shakelford who came home in 39.44 seconds and he never passed that colt in the gallop out. His action appear laborious and energy sapping. The derby distance of 10F will not be kind to that type of action. He also has some historic negative to overcome. Storm Cat broodmares have a strained relationship with the Derby as none of the 300 plus have produced a winner. His price tag of $475K puts a jinks on him as when they are that expensive they find a way to lose. Monarchos was the most expensive derby winner in the last ten years. If my memory is correct he cost $175K. He has to contend with the fact that 5 of the last 10 Derby winners were homebred and seem to have a partial monopoly on the derby. Premier Pegasus is a home bred and to him goes the advantage.

06 Apr 2011 12:46 PM
Jason Shandler

Sorry Coldfacts: I must have missed you touting Shackleford BEFORE the actual race. Nice analysis AFTER the race. Put your picks out there BEFORE the race next time. I'm glad you weren't surprised AFTER the race. 

Amazing...

06 Apr 2011 12:52 PM
Draynay

Jason, is it true The Factor is by War Front and Black Ruby ?

06 Apr 2011 1:06 PM
Draynay

Jason, do you think California horses should have to meet certain standards to be allowed in a race like the Kentucky Derby ?  Winning in California really shouldn't count for anything should it ?

06 Apr 2011 1:18 PM
Ted from LA

I have a question?   Has anyone asked Ted from LA who he is predicting  the Kentucky Derby winner will be?

IF you haven't, I think it's high time you do.

sodapopkid 05 Apr 2011 10:14 PM

It purtnear is high time someone asked.  I have learned over the past few decades to try not to make my pick too early with the exception of Ted from LA calling Caracortado the triple crown winner last January.  Ted learns.  I believe Uncle Mo is your winner, but if Mike Repole changes his mind about having me join him in the winner's circle, I will make a few bets for spite.  Nehro and Santiva have my attention, but like Dr.D (and unlike Jason the Blogger) I think it is a long way to May 7.  Thanks for asking sodapopkid.  If Sodapopkid runs on the undercard that weekend, Ted from LA will be betting with both hands and a foot.  Ted from LA is a very strong believer in Karma.  I just hope that firing my palmist doesn't give me bad Karma.

06 Apr 2011 1:21 PM
Zookeeper

In defense of Coldfacts, here's what he posted on another BH blog:

Mr. Prospector remains the greatest extension of Native Dancer. One of his grandsons is proving to be the greatest extension of the great sire of sires and that’s Unbridled. Why repeat this fact? Well, the FL Derby is almost here and Unbridled has left his mark on the race. He won the 1990 renewal and sired two winner of Florida’s flagship derby prep i.e., Unbridled’s Song and Empire Maker. To complete his resume he now needs to be the broodmare sire of a FL Derby winner. In a previous post I highlighted that there were six members of the class of 2011 who were produced from Unbridled broodmares i.e., Beamer, Anthony's Cross, Zayda, Elite Alex, Bind and Shackleford. How does this tie into the FL Derby? Well, the 20-1 ML Shackleford will contest the FL Derby on Sunday. Yes I am aware he has not chance or does he?

Soldat FOY               24.34, 47.99, 1:12.43, 1:37.19, 1:50.23

Shackleford Allw.     24.33, 48.39, 1:12.22, 1:36.83, 1:50.04

The big question is what happened to Shackleford in the FOY? He finished a distance 5th. It appeared going in he had the numbers to be competitive. The eventual fractions of the FOY with the exception of the second quarter were similar or marginally slower than those recorded in his allowance win. So why did he run so badly? Could it be that his return was too quickly? (21 days) Could it have been the track conditions that day? Could it be he is just not good enough to compete against the big boys? Maybe the latter is the case. Is he at serious play in the exotics? Let’s give him another chance because his 21 days return is the shortest between his races. Let also factor in the unbridled influence on the race. He has won the race and sired two winners. It is therefore not impossible for him to be broodmare sire of a winner.

Coldfacts 01 Apr 2011 4:44 PM

06 Apr 2011 1:23 PM
Jason Shandler

I see nowhere in that post where he picks Shackleford, who by the way did not win the race, or gives us the exacta or trifecta.

06 Apr 2011 1:27 PM
Zookeeper

Jason,

Coldfacts never does. But he often makes very good points in his posts. Did I pay attention to his comment? Sorry to say I didn't. If I had, the trifecta would have been mine as I had the other two horses. The long shot in my tri box was Arch Traveler. I got the hint from another person whose comments have often been very valuable. :)

06 Apr 2011 1:44 PM
Freetex

Coldfacts and Zookeeper, right on!  Yes, I am a Boomer.

Ted from LA, you are the master of all master gurus.  I'm taking notes.

06 Apr 2011 2:02 PM
Ranagulzion

JASON,

Yes it is true that Coldfacts touted Shackleford before the Florida Derby on Steve Haskins blog in which he gave El Kabong lesson 101 in comparitive split times analysis.

Truth be told, he also said that Nick Zito would not score back to back wins in that race and that Dialed In's "inelegant" running action would prevent him winning (LOL).

06 Apr 2011 2:13 PM
Jason Shandler

lol Ranag. He left that part out, mysteriously.

06 Apr 2011 2:20 PM
Householder

The last "Triple Crown Winner's" curse...

The Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown did not wear the blanket of roses.  Desormeaux did not want to scare the horse so he would not let the handlers place the roses on Big Brown.

To this day no one can explain his Belmont race.

06 Apr 2011 2:42 PM
LAZMANNICK

Gee Draynay

Black ruby is the greatest three year old I ever saw.

06 Apr 2011 2:43 PM
2:24

Predictions for this weekend:

Wood Memorial: Uncle Mo wins (I would pick an exacta but I'm not sure who any of the other horses in the race are).

Santa Anita Handicap:  PrePeg over Jaycito with no other horses within shouting distance.

Since neither of those is going out on a limb I will predict that PrePeg runs a faster time and has higher Beyer and Brisnet figures than Uncle Mo.

Masters Champion: Phil Mickelson

Chalky enough for everyone.

06 Apr 2011 2:47 PM
Householder

Big Brown had $6,568,150 in the Belmont win pool!  

Poof...gone...no Triple Crown.

06 Apr 2011 2:48 PM
Forbidden Apple

Nick Zito is a master horse trainer who had his horse win a $1 million Grade 1 race off from 1 breeze. He knows how to tighten the screws on his colt and will do so accordingly. Did some of you not read the Bloodhorse article last week where he mentioned giving Dialed In repeated 2 1/2 mile gallops? We have Mineshaft on top and his dam by Storm Cat, the 1 1/4 mile distance is straight up his alley. The more moving part of this horse is how he has touched Nick emotionally. He has handled him with intense care, patience, and at times seems a bit nervous for a HOF trainer. If Dialed In wins the KY Derby, I am certain that Nick Zito will be crying tears of victory!

John,

For me the lack of conditioning against blooming colts is what will defeat Uncle Mo. It is April 6 today and this horse still does not have a race at 1 1/8. Even if he wins the Wood Memorial, the last 1/8 of the Churchill stretch will expose this horse for what he is made of. I can't wait to see the entry box for the Wood. There just might be 1 or 2 horses in the race to give Mo a headache.

SophieK,

What type of surgery are you talking about? It could have been something minor or nothing at all and just harsh rumors. If you have this sort of information, please be more specific.

SlewStable,

Your information is completely incorrect about Mineshaft. He is the sire of Casino Drive, Fly Down, and Cool Coal Man. Go to pedigreequery.com and you can find a long list of his offspring.

06 Apr 2011 2:54 PM
tcc

Jason: entries for the Illinois Derby Race #7

TVG Illinois Derby  

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $300,000  

$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / $1 Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $1 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10) / $1 Daily Double  

PP  HORSE  JOCKEY  TRAINER  CLAIM $  EQUIP.  MED.  

1  Lagoon of Diamonds  E. Perez

122 Lbs  D. Ackerman     -  L  

2  Smarter Than Ever  J. Santana

122 Lbs  C. Hanna     -  L  

3  Joe Vann  F. Geroux

122 Lbs  T. Pletcher     -  L  

4  Watch Me Go  L. Garcia

122 Lbs  K. O'Connell     -  L  

5  Vouch for Victory  J. Felix

122 Lbs  M. Perez     -  L  

6  Sour  B. Hernandez, Jr.

122 Lbs  A. Stall, Jr.     -  L  

7  The Fed Eased  J. Valdivia, Jr.

122 Lbs  R. Violette, Jr.     -  L  

8  Zoebear  S. Martinez

122 Lbs  S. Becker     -  L  

9  Roman Flame  T. Thornton

122 Lbs  F. Kirby     -  L  

10  El Grayling  V. Lebron

122 Lbs  M. Maker     -  L  

11  Southern Sculptor  L. Medina

122 Lbs  E. Guillot     -  L  

12  Future Empire  T. Riggs

122 Lbs  G. Scherer     -  L  

06 Apr 2011 2:54 PM
LDP

Scottie,

At the quarter he was probably 10 lenghts and half Dialed In was 14 lengths back. That adds roughly 2.8 seconds to every split, if you want his individual times. So his quarter was 25.3 while his half was 49.15. He was about 5 lenghts back after six furlongs meaning he ran 6 furlongs in 1.12.03. At the mile I would say he was a length back or so back meaning he ran 1.36.58, witha final time of 1.50.07

Mo's times in the TW were 25.53, 49.58, 1.13.69, 1.36.56. His gallop out was reported in 1.49. So really DI did not run all that much faster than UM. The only point that DI ran considerably faster than Uncle Mo was the point between the half mile and 3/4's, where he ran a 1.12.03 to Mo's 1.13.69. After that Mo recorded the faster times, and before that the times were relatively similar.

06 Apr 2011 3:01 PM
Ted from LA

Ted from LA, you are the master of all master gurus.  I'm taking notes.

Freetex 06 Apr 2011 2:02 PM

This is brilliant.  I could not agree more.  Keep up the astute observations.  Two thumbs up.  If I ever come to Texas, which quite frankly, I would have to lose more bets than Draynay to have that happen, I'll look you up.

06 Apr 2011 3:14 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

If you had to depend on making a living by being a comedian,you would be living on the street in a cardboard box!

06 Apr 2011 3:21 PM
Matthew W

Prediction: Uncle Mo/Premier Pegasus win big this Sat.....Jaycito wins big First Sat....

06 Apr 2011 3:26 PM
draynot

If Dialed In wins the KY Derby, I am certain that Nick Zito will be crying tears of victory!

Forbidden Apple 06 Apr 2011 2:54 PM

And draynay would be blaming everything he could think of.

06 Apr 2011 3:27 PM
draynot

DRAYNAY

If you had to depend on making a living by being a comedian,you would be living on the street in a cardboard box!

Mike Relva 06 Apr 2011 3:21 PM

Mike,

Same as if he had to try and make a living handicapping.

06 Apr 2011 3:28 PM
tcc

Jason: Entries for the Santa Anita Derby. Race#10

Santa Anita Derby  

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G1  STAKES |  Purse: $1,000,000  

PP  HORSE  JOCKEY  TRAINER  CLAIM $  EQUIP.  MED.  

1  Offlee Wild Boys  J. Talamo

122 Lbs  S. Miyadi     -  L  

2  Indian Winter  P. Valenzuela

122 Lbs  J. Hollendorfer     -  L  

3  Mr. Commons  M. Smith

122 Lbs  J. Shirreffs     -  L  

4  Silver Medallion  G. Gomez

122 Lbs  S. Asmussen     -  L  

5  Comma to the Top  C. Nakatani

122 Lbs  P. Miller     -  L  

6  Midnight Interlude  V. Espinoza

122 Lbs  B. Baffert     -  L  

7  Quail Hill  M. Pedroza

122 Lbs  D. Hofmans     Blk-On  L  

8  Premier Pegasus  A. Quinonez

122 Lbs  M. Cho     -  L  

9  Anthony's Cross  J. Rosario

122 Lbs  E. Harty     -  L  

10  Bench Points  R. Bejarano

122 Lbs  T. Yakteen     -  L  

11  Jaycito  M. Garcia

122 Lbs  B. Baffert     Blk-On  L  

06 Apr 2011 3:30 PM
Householder

Black Ruby won 46 more races than Secretariat and raced about 7 years longer.  Perhaps more thoroughbreds could use a little mule breeding.  They nick a nail or throw in bad race and their retired.  

06 Apr 2011 4:21 PM
afleetalexforever

LDP, good presentation of facts, here's something u left out, 1 horse, Uncle Mo that is was jogging around the oval in the TW, the other horse the slow one was all out under the whip to finish the race in 1:50.  Huge difference in Class, Dialed in more of the Allowance to Grade III type, same sort of horse that runs on the west coast most times.

06 Apr 2011 4:32 PM
Ranagulzion

Gun Bow,

A "Mine that Bird" situation is likely to happen once every 100 years, therefore you can forget about Bernardini's sons Stay Thirsty or THAS winning the Derby.  In terms of upsets you may have to look at colts like Master Of Hounds, Shackleford, Saratoga Red, Watch Me Go, Animal Kingdom and Anthony's Cross, if they get into the field.

06 Apr 2011 4:34 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNOT

You,sir are on point!

06 Apr 2011 4:43 PM
Lmaris

I always find it interesting when people claim a race is "disappointing" simply because horses they favored failed to meet expectations.

Most of the "big guns" in the Florida Derby tried to stretch their speed well beyond their capabilities.  

These prep races should be separating the wheat from the chaff and the FL derby seems to have done that.

As for Uncle Mo being unbeatable, lets remember he's never run as far as the colts last weekend.  He got big kudus from many for his good final quarter, but those folk chose to ignore how slow the first 6 furlongs were.  Could he have closed as fast chasing the FL Derby pace?  Probably not.  

He'll have to do even better in the KY Derby and the dogs he'll face in the Wood sure won't toughen him up for the battle.

It is interesting for him to go to the Wood instead of Oaklawn, a track more similar to Churchill.  But Pletcher is trying to do a Zenyatta:  avoid tough competition unless absolutely necessary to maintain an unbeaten record.

Dialed In may not win the roses, but Mo is going to have similar traffic issues since he'll have to be far off the pace if he wants to have a kick to finish.

06 Apr 2011 4:43 PM
Coldfacts

Jason,

My opinions are not well regarded and I do not take credit for what I do not do. Below are some extract from submission to your blog captioned “2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish”

Ranagulzion

“Of the four, I will be using Shackleford in my exotics as he deserves another chance. The fractions from his allowance win at 9F preceding the FOY suggested he would have been competitive. See below:

Shackleford Allw.     24.33, 48.39, 1:12.22, 1:36.83, 1:50.04

Soldat FOY               24.34, 47.99, 1:12.43, 1:37.19, 1:50.23

To be beaten a distance 5th suggests that something must have gone wrong. He probably came back too quickly (21 days). In his allowance win he swerved and finished the race on his wrong lead. He might have exited that race with some issues that 21 days was enough time to address. At 20-1 if he is capable of splitting the big boys the returns will be lucrative

El Kabong,

Again you have missed the point I was making. I stated that Shackleford was expected to be COMPETITIVE based on his allowance race. A horse can be competitive without actually winning. He was beaten 23L consequently his final time was in the region of 1:55. The times for the FOY and allowance race were just to indicate why the colt was expected to be competitive. Do you believe his connections expected him to run 1:55 after running 1:50 in his first attempt at the distance?  The pace of the FOY was very slow and irrespective of the difference in the track he should have finished closer.  Shackleford got into a challenging position and flattened out badly. This leads me to believe he did not run to his true potential. To assume that a colt has not run to his best potential is in no way an excuse. Is he in the race to fill it? If he is capable of running only 1:55 for 9F, what is he doing in a race against some of the best colts in Florida? I think he is better than his FOY performance and I am going to include him in my exotics. It’s a horse race!

06 Apr 2011 4:49 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

Kindly read the extra below. You will note that I said UNLIKELY to win? For your benefit a few definitions of the word: improbable: not likely to be true or to occur or to have occurred.  

“I think your #1 choice Dialed In is unlikely to be the winner. There has only been one instance where the same connections have been back to back winners of the FL Derby. Calumet Farm won the 1957 & 1958 renewals. Dialed In action is far from smooth and he appears to use a lot of energy in motion. Any distances over a mile will be very testing for him. His stalemate swerved badly in the allowance race and his momentum could not take him pass as he was one pace.”

My position on Dialed In was not definitive. His victory was improbable but not impossible thus ‘Unlikely’. He got up in the final jump to beat an ignored 68-1 opponent. My unlikely assessment was spot on as the runner up would have won if not for swerving in the closing stage of the race.  You are therefore required to be fair to me by resubmitting an amended post citing the exact term used. You post is misleading as it reflect a definitive position advance by the Coldfacts..

06 Apr 2011 4:54 PM
thomas

anthony's cross i really like in the santa anita derby dont know why but i got a feeling. i also think bench points will have a say in the race as well.

the illinois derby is hard to like any one since you dont know half the field.

the wood looks tough. dominguez is riding for albertranie so i guess arthurs tale must be competitive. ill give you a longshot in this feild isn't he perfect. my dad knew the trainer said he couldn't win races back in the late 80s early 90s but after that long gap his luck seems to have turned around

06 Apr 2011 5:37 PM
Householder

Santa Anita Derby:  30% chance of showers Friday afternoon.  Saturday partly cloudy with 10% chance of rain.  

06 Apr 2011 5:42 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Mike R...

I didn't say ALL people who post on here are clueless, if you would read carefully you'd see that. It is quite obvious though, if you really absorb what SOME people write on here, they have zero clue about this game

06 Apr 2011 5:50 PM
Breaking My Maiden

A few of my Calder buddies stated that in the post parade, Soldat "just seriously didn't look right: and decided to pull thier bets off....can anyone confirm this? I wasn't there.

06 Apr 2011 6:56 PM
Draynay

What matters most is I will be betting big on the Derby winner and many or most of you will be looking for value betting on a horse that is sure to lose.  It takes years to be a expert and figure out these young horses.  I have been able to do it better than most because I know more about handicapping than most.  It helps to have superior knowledge and has made me very successful  thanks to my vast experience and track savvy. I had Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Barbaro, Big Brown, and I even had win money on Super Saver.  Did I miss out on Giacamo and Mine That Bird yes I did but you can't pick Fluke winners.  Let me tell you know how I will bet my money.  I will have win/place money on Borel on every horse he rides 50/50.  I will have 10$ exacta boxes 4/7 and 6/9 on every race.  And I will have 2500 on Uncle Mo to win and 100 to win on any horse Borel rides in the Derby.

06 Apr 2011 7:25 PM
mickey 1957

here is some points to ponder....in my circle of track friends if you bring up beyers you get ran off,they are a joke....coldfacts hands down makes more good points on these blogs than anyone,not saying everything he says is the GOSPEL...but I have made tons of money from his views.....pre peg might beat jaycito in the santa anita derby,but come may 7th...jaycito will trounce him carrying equal weihts going a derby distance.....dialed in is zito's only derby contender,nick is a HOF trainer....don't fool yourself thinking this horse won't be ready.....and last but not least....jason you will eat crow if you think brethren don't have a chance in the derby.....I have to laugh...brethren walks all over the sam davis field and everyone,says what good did he get out of that,so pletcher....tells ramon to gas him to the lead in the t.b. derby(same exact thing he did with super saver)and you all jump ship,he will hit the board in the arkansas derby and also the ky derby....brethren will beat mo in the derby and thats a FACT.

06 Apr 2011 7:49 PM
Mike Relva

SARATOGA D.

Whatever!

06 Apr 2011 7:54 PM
John

Draynay,

If you really want to make serious money on the Derby, drop the extra stuff and just bet your money to show on Uncle Mo.

Anything extra is a risk not worth taking.

06 Apr 2011 7:57 PM
Mike Relva

COLDFACTS

Go ahead and spin it anyway you want,but for a horse(Dialed In) to be fairly inexperienced he ran a great race. It's always easy for when it doesn't work out,individuals can find a million excuses to undermine why a horse won that they didn't select.

06 Apr 2011 8:00 PM
mickey 1957

you talk about NOT having a CLUE....saratoga red,watch me go,animal kingdom and anthonys cross....then ted from watts or is it south central anyway comes up with nehro and santiva,I give up.

06 Apr 2011 8:02 PM
John

I just got through going over the entries for the Wood Memorial.

If I'm not mistaken there is not one graded stakes winner in the bunch facing Uncle Mo.

The probable second choice is a horse called Toby's Corner whose best time for a mile is just under 1:39.

Are you kidding me?

06 Apr 2011 8:05 PM
Ted from LA

Drayray,

Have you considered betting a $125 exacta Uncle Mo All? It is less expensive than your $2500 ($2375)win bet and will most likely have a much better payoff if Mo wins.  Even if the second choice in the betting places second (which will NOT happen) you'd still get a better return.  I know you're new to all this betting and handicapping stuff, so Ted from LA can't help but want to take you under his wing.  ~Uncle Ted.  Word.

06 Apr 2011 8:08 PM
Footlick

Was the track variant the same for Uncle Mo's race and Dialed In's race?

06 Apr 2011 8:27 PM
Johnny

Breaking my Maiden:

I was their and my $$$ was on Soldat then they came into the paddock and my $$$ went on Schackelford..

He[soldat] did not look bad but did not look good he was dull looking..

More like an Allownace horse than a G-1 horse coat wise to me..

THAS was the 2nd best looking horse than Dialed in..

Schackelford really stood out though..

2 biggest horse I saw this meet at Gulfstream was MMM and Schackelford. You could tell though on MMM he had at least another 150lbs to add his ass was still slender..

Just remiber that come exotic betting for the KY Derby..

06 Apr 2011 8:29 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Master Of Hounds was defeated by a filly admittedly a top class one but that does not argue well for his derby chances. His breeding is turf top and bottom. He is a close to the pace colt and pacing with the like of The Factor and Uncle Mo on a new surface will be too much. He did finish 3rd to top class Darley colt Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy so he does have a bit ofclass.

Shackleford: Came home in 39.44 and that will not cut it in the derby. He does have a 46, 1:10 pace but does not appear fully effective at 10F in top class company. Nice colt that should be steered to the Preakness.

Saratoga Red is a close to the pace colt who will be fried following The Factor, Uncle Mo and Pre Peg. His lack of foundation make him a surprising mention.

Watch Me Go: Caught him across the board in the TB Derby for $4. Why I did place small wage on him. Who is Pleasant Prince? A colt I wager at 28-1 in the 2010 FL Derby and got beat by a SH. What does that have to do with Watch Me Go? Well, like Pleasant Prince his sire and dam were unraced. This pedigree combination is rare. Determine was the last and probably the only derby winner whose sire and dam were unraced. He does not have the speed figures to win the derby but will be a very historic participant.

Animal Kingdom: Purely turf pedigree. The last 3/8 of the Spiral was run in 39.75. How can you like a colt that wins a race with last 3/8 in almost 40?

Anthony's Cross: His trainer is his greatest liability. His horses are very unreliable and rarely run good races consecutively. He is another that will be fried in the early pace. He won a race at CD in 1:47. No top class colt record those times.

THAS is going to embarrass you in the long run. He is extremely well bred and has shown enough to win the derby at a big price. Here is some cold facts: Any colt that is capable of running 8F in 1:35 and a bit with that amount of stamina represented in its dam line is dangerous.

06 Apr 2011 9:36 PM
Gizmo

SaratogaDreamin,  When was the last time the Wood Memorial had a full field of legitimate Derby prospects?

The best horses prep in FL,CA or AR every year,nobody is dodging UM.In Fact,since he was in FL all of this time why didn't he run in the FL Derby?

"Some people have ZERO clue about this game".

06 Apr 2011 9:37 PM
tjconway

Another ugly generation of 3-year-olds! Race times have been below average, the competition is so-so and these horses are suppose to carry 126 lbs.in Kentucky?!

If the race was today, I'd take Master of Hounds at 22-1. Unfortunately for him his breeding is far too grass oriented. Was Stay Thirsty playing possum? I'll consider him at 45-1 if he gets into the field...Storm Bird colts are pretty awesome in big races! Astrology has great tactical speed and should improve greatly. Still too early for any other comments!

06 Apr 2011 9:47 PM
Coldfacts

Mike Relva,

If you are going to attack me you are advised to be accurate. I gave one reason for Shackleford loss and that was the fact the he swerved closet to home. When does one reason equate to one million? Dialed In was contesting his 4th race Shackleford his 5th consequently both could be classified as inexperienced. How did I undermine Dialed In? You could not be referring to the fact that he barely caught Shackleford who came home in 39.44. Cold facts my friend not SPIN.

06 Apr 2011 9:49 PM
SaratogaDreamin

1957...my point exactly :) and john, is that Uncle Mo's fault that no one showed up to race against him for a million dolars in one of the most prestigiuos preps?

06 Apr 2011 9:52 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

I believe tht the track vriant for Unlce Mo's Timely Writer was 15, and for Dialed In's Florida Derby it was 10.

06 Apr 2011 9:57 PM
LAZMANNICK

Of coure Draynay, your going to tell us on Sunday, May 8th, how much money you bet to win on the Derby winner (actually how much you won too as well as the different exotics you bet with the Derby winner included), and of course you're going to tell us who the Derby winner was that day too.  Much thanks.

06 Apr 2011 10:02 PM
John T

I think the reason most fans are on a downer about the Florida Derby

is because a lot of the fancied horses never showed up.Very view people would have thought Shackleford would be still there to take the field along in the stretch and just get beat,but hey as a young 3 year old he has every right to improve leaps and bounds from his last race.I can remember Forego finishing down the field to Secretariat in the 1973 Kentucky Derby and yet he went on to become one of the greatest handicapping stars in Amercian racing history.Such is life in the wacky world of 3 year olds.Only time will tell if this was a one fluke wonder from Shakleford or if he can go on to improve of that effort.

06 Apr 2011 11:09 PM
Single in LA

Ted,

I'm sure Caracortado would have won the Triple Crown last year if Draynay hadn't spent the entire month of April chanting gibberish whilst sticking pins into a little doll shaped like California.

Enjoyed your observation about when time matters....You do realize (I hope! I hope!) that in only two of your examples do the spoils go to the speedy?

06 Apr 2011 11:13 PM
Matthew W

Comma To The Top will be hard to pass this Sat...like Pre Peg to win but think Comma will be tough....Jaycito will plug along in 3rd or 4th, preparing for his Kentucky Drrby win! What a class difference in the Wood/Santa Anita--best field in a long time out here.....

06 Apr 2011 11:39 PM
Matthew W

Methinks if Borel wins with Misremembered, and he should, he'll get Jaycito in Kentucky--ca-ching! I have him at 21-1 in futures/will back him big under MoMo/PrePeg in Kentucky--think he's the real deal--this year I don't see too much stamina at the top level--Uncle Mo will be tough to collar--I saw in Jaycito, at Hollywood in the Norfolk--he has stamina in spades, and as far as I'm concerned, if he's finishing well on Sat, he's gonna win the Kentucky Derby.....

07 Apr 2011 12:06 AM
draynay

What are you talking about. Toby's Corner is a stakes winner @ Aqu with a 103 Beyer is that not enough for you?  Preachintothedevil has a top Beyer @ 96 with a stakes win @ Aqu and a total of 2 wins at the track.  Is that not enough for you?  Did you expect a bunch of G1 winners to show up to get crushed by Mo?  It doesn't matter what he does it's not going to be enough for you.  You are going to pick some other dumb horse that has no chance of winning and claim you were looking for value on Derby Day and you didn't want to eat chalk.  While you are doing that I will be cashing my win tickets and heading out to a fabulous dinner paid for by people like you looking for value from a horse that had no chance of winning.  Unreal.

07 Apr 2011 12:32 AM
Forbidden Apple

I have been hearing for weeks how the best horses are in Florida. Now that the FL Derby is over, people are depressed and bitter. If Dialed in runs 2:03,2:04, or 2:05 in the KY Derby and wins, who cares about the final time.

07 Apr 2011 12:37 AM
GoldenBroom

Well anyway you look at it we are another week closer to the big dance and this weekend's races should be more exciting than last...? Even the Wood will have everyone watching and analyzing. Does Pletcher have Mo gallop out the full distance of 1 1/4 miles? Will someone please put a watch on him and keep it on calling out to us here his fractions after the wire just in case? Really hoping to see Jaycito step it up. Been waiting for this horse to do just that after his win over JP before the BCJ last year.

07 Apr 2011 8:53 AM
draynot

draynay said it takes years to be an expert and figure out the young horses. Based on his horrible record at picking anything but chalk he has lifetimes to go to become even a below average handicapper.

This is how he says he'll bet on Derby Day:

"Let me tell you know how I will bet my money.  I will have win/place money on Borel on every horse he rides 50/50.  I will have 10$ exacta boxes 4/7 and 6/9 on every race.  And I will have 2500 on Uncle Mo to win and 100 to win on any horse Borel rides in the Derby."

Funny how nowhere in there has he handicapped any horse except Uncle Mo who has been the Derby favorite since last year. Betting on numbers and jockeys is not "knowing the horses". Millions and millions of people have Mo as their favorite and have had him as long or longer than draynay. What a joke.

07 Apr 2011 9:33 AM
bettin for big bucks

Ted from LA,

Why would you bet $125 on every horse under Mo? It makes more sense to me that you would put more than $125 on the combo that would pay $60 and less on the combo that would pay $800. Bet the same amount (2375) but spread it according to expected payouts. Or, If you want to put the same on every horse to finish second then play a .50 super Mo/all/all/all (2907) and you would have better potential for the huge hit as well (see Big Brown's Derby payouts where under your scenario the payoff would be about half using the exactas as compared to winning the super).  

07 Apr 2011 9:52 AM
mz

I still like Dialled In.  I don't care what you say, Jason.

I was also pretty impressed by Shackleford but because of this race, I don't think he will be at big enough odds to actually be my "what-the-heck-bet-on-an-extreme-outsider" bet (also called the "MTB Bet").

So my important question is: are they still actually thinking of bringing Master of Hounds over for the Derby? I want to be prepared with my Big $2 to Win.

(Please note that as of today, my Big Bet will actually only cost me $1.92 -- I'm hoping the exchange stays in my favour just long enough so that I can feel a little better when my choices do their usual: 4th, 8th, 9th and 13th.)

And finally: Ted, can you explain "odds" to us again?

07 Apr 2011 10:27 AM
It aint easy being good

Coldfacts you always talk about effiecent strides and the pounding a horse takes when he runs. I am curious on your thoughts on the factor. I feel when you watch him run he doesnt use much energy and has a high cruising speed and really floats over the track. Personally on a dry track the fastest horse usually wins the derby and the fastest horse out there is the factor.

07 Apr 2011 10:30 AM
Johnny

WoW Draynay you hit all favs or 2nd choice you sure are the cats meow..

I hit all those as well.

Also add funny cide to the mix and the grand prize I hit was the up and down exacta box Pioneer of the Nile with all..

Have a nice day in High School today and good luck at prom..

P.S.

Quality Road is still running..

07 Apr 2011 10:37 AM
Kris

Hey joeywoge, I picked Mine That Bird to win the Derby.  But you're right, it wasn't through traditional handicapping.  I played him because we share the same birthday (May 10).  

My husband picked Giacomo because he loved The Police and heard that the horse was named after Sting's son.  Unfortunately he wouldn't share his winnings with me, but I digress....

For the last ten years we've been handicapping the Derby by playing birthdays, etc.  I highly recommend it because it pays much better than traditional handicapping (though you probably won't hit as often).

This year Bench Points is very high on my list because he shares my sister's birthday.  So I really hope he makes the Derby field.  

07 Apr 2011 11:17 AM
Householder

The Santa Anita Derby is offering 2 grade I winners, 2 grade II winners, and a grade III winner.  The Wood is offering...

07 Apr 2011 11:57 AM
slyder

draynot,

You said it well. draynay's handicapping abilities are nearly non-existant. Pick the chalk, blast the rest, and when in doubt (nearly always for draynay) punt with numbers, names, or jockeys. Finally, when all fails blame it on something, anything but yourself. I especially like the part where you point out his betting strategy for Ky. Derby Day includes no handicapping of the horses at all only numbers and names and play the chalk to win the Derby.

07 Apr 2011 12:10 PM
mz

Hey, Kris!  Your handicapping tip can't help me.  Any horse born July 31st and running in the Derby would be in trouble.

And come to think of it, isn't the Southern Hemisphere birthdate for thoroughbreds August 1st?  This means that in Australia, any horse born July 31st would be in even more trouble.

I will stick with my usual:  don't pick any horse Draynay likes.

07 Apr 2011 12:21 PM
Giddyup

I could accept one of those top contenders coming up with a non-effort but it's hard to believe all 3 would take a dislike to the surface and just coast. Could it be someone was sand bagging trying to drive up the Derby odds? I won't be jumping on the Dialed In bangwagon just yet.

07 Apr 2011 12:27 PM
tcc

And I will have 2500 on Uncle Mo to win and 100 to win on any horse Borel rides in the Derby."

Funny how nowhere in there has he handicapped any horse except Uncle Mo who has been the Derby favorite since last year. Betting on numbers and jockeys is not "knowing the horses". Millions and millions of people have Mo as their favorite and have had him as long or longer than draynay. What a joke.

draynot 07 Apr 2011 9:33 AM

Let's do a what if , Elite Alex, the horse that Calvin Borel is riding now doesn't get enough graded earnings to get into yhe Derby, and maybe he ends up on Jaycito, seeing he doesn't think any horse racing in Calif. can win the Derby, then what can he brag about? He could then say he picked the Derby winner because Calvin was the rider, and he could also say he didn't pick the Derby winner, because the horse was racing in Calif. all in the breath!

07 Apr 2011 12:43 PM
Householder

What a treat on the Santa Anita Derby undercard.  One of my favorites going Un Zip Me in the Las Cienegas.  She was third to the boys in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint.  They piled the weight on her though (127 pounds!!!).  

07 Apr 2011 12:46 PM
draynay

tjconway, I am glad someone finally brought that up.  In to Wood horses will be asked to carry 123 lbs and many have never had to carry anything close to that.  Uncle Mo has carried 125 already with no problems a huge advantage for him.  You don't like the way I bet? Those are my standard bets my pick 3's and Pick 4's I will not be sharing.  But when it's all said and done check out my standard bets and let me know how I did. Borel helps me every year.

07 Apr 2011 1:12 PM
Footlick

Thanks Laz.

07 Apr 2011 1:13 PM
John T

MZ

 No decision will be made on Master of Hounds until the 2000 Guineas favourite Frankel has his first run of the season in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury on April

16th.Everything depends on the performance of Frankel before connections make up their minds to go for the Guineas or Derby.

 Footlick

I remember you mentioning your interest in Lady Of The Desert.She will be having her first race of the season in the Rose Of York Stakes at York over 6 furlongs on May 11th,after which one of the big sprints at Royal Ascot in June will be picked out for her.

07 Apr 2011 1:24 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

The 103 Beyer for Toby's Corner and the 96 Beyer for Preachintothedevil, try as I might I can't find them.  Please give me the race and the Beyer.  thankyou.

07 Apr 2011 1:28 PM
LAZMANNICK

I love Mo, but there are still many questions to be answered:

First of all of course is the breeding and the fact that his sire has only sired (I believe) two 10F stakes winners. The second thing, he hasn't even run past 8.5F yet and although he galloped out strongly in the Timely Writer, I still was not all that impressed because he was basically not used during the race and when he crossed the wire he still had plenty left. The third thing is the size of the field and the fact that in the past 20 years, only Go For Gin and War Emblem have wired the field. The others have all come from off the pace to some degree, which means that they had to be behind horses and took a lot, or at least some, dirt, were bumped around, jostled, intimidated by the size of the field, etc., etc. The truth is, Mo has never had dirt thrown in his face. Even in the Juvenile when he was second for a good part of the race, he was wide and virtually had a clean trip. In fact, Mo has never had controversy of any kind in any of his races. What’s going to happen if he gets that kind of controversy, gets dirt, gets bumped, gets multi challenges, gets an off track, etc.?  There are still lots of questions to be answered and it looks like most of them won't be answered until the Derby itself.

07 Apr 2011 1:32 PM
Mike Relva

COLDFACTS

I like to think of it as "spin control".

07 Apr 2011 1:37 PM
Ted from LA

Look who came crawling back to Ted from LA (Single in LA).  Where have you been?  I've looked for you forever and a day.

07 Apr 2011 1:39 PM
Householder

I just watched Jaycito's daddy's late move in the Derby on You Tube.  Nice...  It looked like Uncle Mo's daddy was tied to the fence the last 1/8th though.  I'm not sure what 1 1/8th will tell us this weekend.  It will be too long for some, and not long enough for others.  Certainly have some classic bloodlines this go around that's for sure.

07 Apr 2011 1:46 PM
LAZMANNICK

draynay

When was Mo asked to carry 125 lbs., in a workout?  The most he has carried so far is 123 lbs. in the TW.  You know I would never doubt you, none of us that post on here would.  We all believe, in fact, hang on every word you say, but how come you're not getting the facts straight.  This is three corrections that I have had to post to you.  What's next?

07 Apr 2011 1:47 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

LAZ is right,many questions to be answered about MO. When you not only promised back in Jan. that MO would win the Derby,also the Triple that's like jumping in without testing the water.What's interesting is if your dream fails,how quickly you will cut and run.

07 Apr 2011 2:30 PM
Householder

Draynot.  Millions and million of people were behind Draynay's last Triple Crown "lock."  Over 6 million dollars were in the win pool for Big Brown's Belmont fiasco.  

Poof...gone...vaporized...by the curse.

Big Brown should have worn the roses.  

07 Apr 2011 3:00 PM
mr pibb

"I will have Uncle Mo on the top of my ticket and then fill in the bottom with horses that have WON at Churchill before.

You can't struggle to beat a front running 68 to 1 shot and be considered a real Derby threat."  

Draynay 05 Apr 2011 1:17 PM

This guy is so mixedup he can't keep things straight in the same blog statement. First he says he'll play all those who have won at CD under Mo in the Derby , then he scoffs at Dialed In as a non-threat in the Derby because he "struggled to beat a 68/1 shot. A non-threat has no chance to even hit the board but wait Dialed In broke his Maiden impressively at CD closing 11 lenghths to win at 6f. LMAO!! He's arguing both sides of the argument in Dailed In's case. No wonder everybody here thinks you are a joke draynay. You can't even keep things straight from one sentance to the next!!  

07 Apr 2011 3:07 PM
Meydan Rocks

www.drf.com/.../kentucky-derby-baffert-following-familiar-paths-louisville

Unless I reading it all wrong, Baffert seems to be playing it cautiously.  I hope Uncle Mo gets to show that he really is heads and shoulders about this crop.

The following is an excerpt from a DRF article.

"Consider that Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby three times but also owns five wins in the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which he sends out two horses, Jaycito and Midnight Interlude, on Saturday. Next weekend, Baffert will take The Factor back to Oaklawn Park, scene of his victory in last month’s Rebel Stakes, for the Arkansas Derby. He’s been down this road so many times that even though he wants nothing more than another Derby victory, Baffert has the perspective to know just how elusive the quest is.

“You can’t woof until you put the saddle on them and take them over to the rail, and even then you’re not home,” Baffert said while watching his horses train earlier this week at Santa Anita. “Look at Lookin At Lucky. When he drew the one hole in the Derby, I lost all interest. I had just left Cracker Barrel earlier in the morning, and I wanted to throw up my chicken-fried steak and eggs."

07 Apr 2011 3:26 PM
Tiznowbaby

Draynay, you are incorrect. According to Beyer himself, Toby's Corner has a career high Beyer of 88...and that is the highest Beyer of any horse in the Wood field outside of Mo.

07 Apr 2011 3:39 PM
John

Uncle Mo will be facing NOT ONE GRADED STAKES winner in the Wood.

At least in the Rebel Stakes The Factor faced and beaten the winner of one Grade 1 race, one Grade 2 race and two Grade 3 races.

The 2011 Wood Memorial - other than Uncle Mo  -  NOT ONE GRADED STAKES winner

How do you say "public workout" for the second time this year.

07 Apr 2011 3:57 PM
Single in LA

Ted in LA,

I've been skulking about.  Or maybe it's "stalking".  You missed me.  I'm flattered.

07 Apr 2011 4:07 PM
Antman

You heard it here first.

The factor will not hit the board.  They will not let him run free this time, then he will show he is a sprinter.  Any pressure and its off the board. Awesome horse but not breed to run all day.  Will be a great betting race in my opinion.  AAA shows he can run.

07 Apr 2011 4:19 PM
Ted from LA

Pre Peg out.  Bad deal.

07 Apr 2011 4:24 PM
gw_bushwacker

Borel helps me every year.

draynay 07 Apr 2011 1:12 PM

You got your butt handed to you betting Borel at CD in the Breeders Cup draynay. Oh ya you always forget to mention the 9 1/2 times out of ten things don't work for you.

07 Apr 2011 4:48 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

With respect to THAS, if by long run you mean the Belmont, Haskel or Travers, I wouldn't be embarrased because that's what I anticipate with a typical Bernardini colt.  If he came to hand in time for the Preakness he'd be following in his sire's footsteps but I doubt it. He's grossly overrated.  Break Up The Game looks like a more promising son of Bernardini to me.

This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go.  I don't expect AC to beat PrePeg but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull off the upset. WMG is a cinch in the Illinois Derby.

If the connections of Animal Kingdom are satisfied with his handling of the dirt in training that'll be good enough for me to give this colt an outsider's shot.  My thinking is the same for Master Of Hounds.  He was a bit short on conditioning going into the UAE Derby.  If Aidian O'Brien decides to make the trip across the pond, consider this colt very dangerous. Remember that these are improving sorts.  

Shackleford is a Forestry colt and these are top class individuals whenever they show ability like Shackleford has.  Saratoga Red will tell us if he's up to the challenge in the Arkansas.  You can expect that D.Wayne Lukas will leave no stone unturned in trying to get to the Derby, and if he gets there he's going to be a factor on the front end. This colt's broodmare sire is the bold and tenacious front runner Siphon.  He's already begun to show some of those same traits.

07 Apr 2011 4:58 PM
Mike Relva

MR PIBB

I couldn't said it better!

07 Apr 2011 5:01 PM
RJPPDP

Now that Prepeg is out of the Santa Anita derby with a fracture. What will happen in the race. Is Jaycito,Anthony's Cross and Silver Medallion a lock or does this actually open the race for bench points, Mr Commons or Midnight Interlude.

To everyone out there. I enjoy your facts. My only fact I have right now if is the fastest 1 1/8 times have come from top 3 finishers in Louisana, Soldat and Anthony's Cross. Just something to think about

07 Apr 2011 5:53 PM
Zookeeper

Every year, as the KD approaches, I dread the ALERTS I get from BH. It's often bad news for one of the contenders. Premier Pegasus held such promise. Hopefully, he will heal well and fast but it's the end of the Derby Trail for him and Mr. Cho. How crushed he must be.

07 Apr 2011 6:09 PM
Draynay

The difference between me and you is I go home with more money after a day at the track.  I have been betting on the Derby for a long time and it's a day I really look forward to.  I have some standard bets that I do every year no matter what.  The real money is in the pick 3's and pick 4's on Derby Day.  But now that you know some of my bets total them up at the end of the day and let me know how I did.  Let me tell you the last two years I have really cleaned up on the 50 to win 50 to place bets on Borail I suggest many of you try the same thing.  By the way after Silver Medallion wins the SA scratch him from you list of potential Derby winners.

07 Apr 2011 6:35 PM
draynay

www.brisnet.com/.../toddpletcher_247112.pdf

I was using these Brisnet figures did I say Beyer?  Confusing my B's again.

07 Apr 2011 6:49 PM
longwaytomay

Laz,

 Indian Charlie only has 1 runner who has won at 10 furlongs or more. 478 runners and only 1 winner at the Derby distance. Mo will have to be beyond special to buck those odds.

07 Apr 2011 6:56 PM
Draynay

Mr. Pibb you must be new to this sport.  Let me tell you how I got rich today.  The 6th race at Gulfstream was a perfect race.  I noticed the 5 horse was getting blinkers and Castellano was jumping on.  Add to that dropping from allowance and he was taking all the money.  I saw that he had speed to his inside.  The 2 horse would be going fast and the 5 would get sucked into it.  I threw out the 2 and 5 and liked the 10 on top with Bravo aboard and his last work was very good.  2 dollar Super 10 on top and boxed the remaining horses.  200 to win and 200 to place on the 10.  I walked out with over 3k on that one race.  The 2 horse took off just like I thought he would and the 5 couldn't stay away and got sucked into the speed.  My beautiful 10 horse won in a hand ride.  You keep thinking you know so much and I will keep cashing my tickets.  You guys are all talk until you get to the track and then your knees shake as you bet your 10 bucks.  Drop 5k or so put some big money at risk and then let me know how you bet.  Everyone thinks they are a hero for betting 2 bucks on a 20 to 1 shot.  Put 200 down and let me know how it turns out for you.

07 Apr 2011 7:09 PM
Householder

"When he drew the one hole in the Derby, I lost all interest."  

Come on Baffert!  How do you think Charlie Whittingham felt after Ferdinand drew the one hole with a 54 year old jockey on board?  Shoemaker was riding against jockeys half is age and pulled it off.  He was shuffled back to last place going into the first turn!  What a horse...but man what a ride.

07 Apr 2011 7:10 PM
Footlick

John T- Thanks for the update.  How about the Head siblings going 1 and 2 in France today!!!!  Two really nice fillies.

07 Apr 2011 7:18 PM
GunBow

PrePeg injured, out of SA Derby and off Derby trail. BUMMER!

I'm no longer expecting much from the SA Derby unless Silver Medallion not only likes, but moves up on dirt.  

Anthony's Cross reminds me of American Lion, which might now be good enough to win the SA Derby, but not the Kentucky Derby.  Jaycito has the breeding, and likely the endurance, but he has NEVER run fast.  The only thing that keeps me from tossing him completely is that Baffert, the best Triple Crown trainer out there these days, seems to like him some.

I'm expecting Comma to run well Saturday, but 9 furlongs is pushing it for him, and 10 furlongs has basically been ruled out by his trainer.

Maybe Mr. Commons or Midnight Interlude jump up and run well, but I haven't seen many horses, including some horses with great potential, make that jump to stakes successfully this meet.

Between injuries and moderate races, I'm not liking this crop all that much.  If Uncle Mo were to get injured or flop in the Wood, wow, we could be looking at a bleak Triple Crown.  

But no matter, the show will always go on.  They will still be running the SA Derby on Saturday without PrePeg, and the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May no matter who is or isn't there.

07 Apr 2011 7:22 PM
Footlick

Hope Lady of the Desert comes back as good as she exited.  That would be exciting.

Too bad about PrePeg.  That is just the thing that happens and thwarts peoples picks this early.  It would have been nice if the Wood were deeper.  But it is what it is.

07 Apr 2011 8:05 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- nice post.  I'm not quite sold on AC, and I'll reserve judgement on Saratoga Red, and I wish Master of Hounds showed more dirt breeding because he certainly will be able to get the distance.  We will see.  I also agree, I loved Siphon!

07 Apr 2011 8:17 PM
2:24

F.  With PrePeg out, this Kentucky Derby just became alot less interesting.  We can only hope The Factor continues to progress so we will have a race.  Right now, we have 3 horses left with wow potential (maybe 2 depending on your opinion of Dialed In).  If The Factor doesn't get 9 furlongs and misses The Derby, Mo may just be running against the clock.

07 Apr 2011 8:28 PM
Ted from LA

Did anyone else notice that Ted from LA scooped the Bloodhorse on the Pre Peg scratch.  Jason, whenever you want a big story, come to me.  Single in LA, what's not to miss?  Your wit?  Charm?  Intelligence?  Sense of humor?  If you're a woman, you're the perfect woman.  

07 Apr 2011 8:41 PM
Matthew W

Mr Cho, six horse stable/mostly homebreds....dealt crushing blow! Incredible highs/lows in this sport! Comma To The Top will be ultra-tough to pass on Sat, then we'll see about his trainer's words, conserning their intentions not to go on to Louisville--this has been an odd Triple Crown Trail--PrePeg was looking awesome, like a little king, complete with bowed head--too bad, it's getting late, and the #1 challenger to Uncle Mo is out of the picture--on a personal level, my 21-1 future bet on Jaycito (SA Derby fave...) looks pretty nice right now--he should be finishing well on Sat--but I was rooting for Mr Cho--he bred/owned/trained Premier Pegasus, and was THAT CLOSE---and now his Derby Dream is gone....

07 Apr 2011 8:44 PM
Matthew W

Householder: 25 years since Shoe pulled it off--25 years since Jack won the Masters--I was rooting for Snow Chief, but when Shoe hit that hole--just getting there before Pat Day/Rampage--turned Ferdinand into a Derby Winner--turned Rampage into an also ran/a Derby footnote....

07 Apr 2011 8:48 PM
Matthew W

Like Secretariat before him, Uncle Mo has a strong female lineage--I think he'll get the 1 1/4 and be very tough to beat--PrePeg WAS his biggest challenge--now his biggest challenge will be the tenth furlong--I think he's gonna be very tough to beat....

07 Apr 2011 8:50 PM
longwaytomay

Draynay,

 Why don't you post one of your monster bets BEFORE the race is run. You are the master of redboarding.

07 Apr 2011 8:55 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Your latest post you crow about all the "money you take home". What happened two yrs ago when MTB put you sideways? I think one of your famous quotes was "with MTB,it's personal". You slammed this horse repeatly. It WAS YOUR FAULT you bet on the wrong horse.

07 Apr 2011 9:08 PM
Cuban chef de race

The stallion MT livermoore that Dialed in has so close in his second dam is starting to emerge now like clever trick did with looking at lucky,i told you kid 10 furlongs or 10 blocks?,i need to see one more prep.

07 Apr 2011 9:20 PM
LAZMANNICK

longwaytomay

You’re right.   I thought there might have been a second, but it appears that Fleet Indian who won twice at 10F, the Personal Ensign G1 and the Delaware Hdcp. G2, is his only stakes winners at 10F.  Also he has sired only three horse that have won more than a million, Fleet Indian, Indian Blessing and Uncle Mo.

07 Apr 2011 9:48 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Gizmo...If you had a clue, you'd know that his owner said in NOVEMBER that Mo was going to run in the Wood, since he's from NY and always wanted to have a horse that could win it...Its laughable to say that the Undefeated Champion 2yr old is ducking horses

07 Apr 2011 9:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

We're still waiting for you to answer the questions:  When did Mo carry 125 lbs. and when did Toby's Corner score a 103 Beyer, unless his best Beyer, which is an 88, translates to 103 with you, which wouldn't surprise me seeing that you inflate everything else that has to do with numbers.

07 Apr 2011 9:51 PM
Paula Higgins

Saw Premiere Pegasus is out with a fracture. He was the horse that might have given Uncle Mo a run for his money. Disappointing. He is a very good horse.

07 Apr 2011 9:56 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

One element I've always noticed about you,or shall I say something you NEVER do is express remorse,concern,etc when a horse is injured or worse. It's great you have your priorities straight. I bring this to your attention for the fact I will be leaving very early tomorrow to drive to the airport to fly to AZ to visit a special horse,Dyna King half bro to Barbaro that's at a rescue/rehab center. So,enjoy your money and letting everyone know how great of a handicapper you are!What was I thinking,there's nothing more important!

07 Apr 2011 10:34 PM
jayjay

Draynay : When you wake up dreaming with your win scenarios let us know.  It's always easy to post something after the race had already been run.  How about you post your bets you're betting on BEFORE the race.  Any one can say they hit this race and that race after the it's already run.  LOL, you're a joke.

I posted some P4 wins and Jason was on my behind about it.  You're posting winnings every race and he's pretty quiet about it lol.

You said you bet big money on Mo in the KDFW, how about you post a pic of it.

07 Apr 2011 10:46 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

“If he came to hand in time for the Preakness he'd be following in his sire”

You have to be careful with what you submit. Bernardidni came to hand two weeks after the derby. Exactly what measurement methodology was employed to arrive at that conclusion? Mine that Bird and Super Saver made two loosing starts preceding and they won. They both distinguished themselves as 2YO. THAS ran 1:50 and a bit in the Remsen following a 1:36 mile. The FL Derby was run in 1:50 and  a bit following a 1:36 mile and he got beat 4L. He has won 9F in 1:50 and he has lost twice in times slower than that which was recorded in his last victory. Conclusion: Not fully fit but has 5 weeks to get it right. This equates to danger. At 30-1 I have to dive in.

“This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go.”

Anthony’s Cross never runs two good races consecutively and therefore will not win. Watch Me Go defeated a $16000 claimer by a head. He is shipping to a new track and you expect him to win. I cannot see it happening I know very little about the rest but I like the pedigree of Vouch for Victory. His dam sire is two times derby winning sire Halo. His second dam Reviewer was sires of the ill fated Ruffian. His third dam was sired by Princequillo dam sire of Secretariat and his 4th dam was sired by Preakness winner Polynesian who was also sire of the great Native Dancer. With those broodmare sires in his dam line if he has any ability he should be competitive.  His sire is the rarely seen Quest a grandson Mr. prospector. He is therefore a RAN sire line colt and merits watching. Is it significant that 5 of Mr. P’s grandsons have sired derby winner?

08 Apr 2011 12:40 AM
mr pibb

draynay,

congrats on betting 700 to get to 3,000. Nice value,If that makes you "rich" then you don't have much to start with. Furthermore, if you learned how to handicap instead of throwing chalk/all/all/all in your bets you might make a decent profit the one of 10 times you get lucky. You said you put it all on one $2 ticket too, If you had split it into 8  .25 cent supers you would have avoided the tax man. Last years Derby I played a $20 tri with Super Saver, Ice Box/ Super Saver, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin/Super Saver, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin and it cost me a mere $240. I split it into .50 tri's, it took a little time to get 40 tickets but in the end I had 40 tickets that payed $584 each and no tax man. Even a $1 ticket would have necessatated filing forms. That's over 20k on a 240 bet but it's also chump change to me. I'll be looking down on you from my sky box on May 7. They tell me you will be the one wearing a pink dress waddling in the mud trying to fight your way to the rail in the infield to get a fleeting glimpse of Uncle Mo on the backstretch. Shouldn't be hard to spot.          

08 Apr 2011 9:37 AM
draynot

DRAYNAY

One element I've always noticed about you,or shall I say something you NEVER do is express remorse,concern,etc when a horse is injured or worse.

Mike Relva 07 Apr 2011 10:34 PM

Mike,

Never say never. If I recall correctly draynay whined and whined about Big Brown's foot AFTER he got whipped in the Belmont. He hasn't stopped.  

08 Apr 2011 12:09 PM
slyder

I see draynay aka. Mr. BS Afterthefact has made another appearance to spew garbage. Ironic how after making a fool of himself with outrageous predictions that never come true he comes up with unsubstantiated bullcrap.

08 Apr 2011 12:15 PM
Draynay

Jayjay, what you don't seem to understand is Jason has been at the track WITH ME and SEEN me win a number of times.  So I have something of a history of winning with OTHER PEOPLE around.  You have nothing but wishes and dreams.

08 Apr 2011 1:49 PM
draynay

Mike, 2 things upset me about Mine That Bird.  The first was I didn't get my Borel bet in because I thought my wife had done it and she thought I had done it.  The second thing that upset me is he was a FLUKE winner and won only because Borel was on him.

08 Apr 2011 1:57 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

My methodology for arriving at a conclusion about Bernardini in 2006 may be too simplistic for you.  Its called hindsight and that's 20/20 vision or you Bro. In the case of To Honour and Serve I'm applying foresight. All I can see is regression and a colt that may be at a point in his growth/development cycle where he's not ready to move forward on his 2YO form (typical of the AP Indys). He'll finish down the track in the Derby. Comparing him with Super Saver is like apples to oranges. SS was clearly rounding into form in both his prep races and was beaten in a driving finish by Line Of David in the Arkansas Derby. It funny how you are relying on the performances of Super Saver to bolster your argument now, when you gave him no shot to win the Derby last year (LOL).  I'm sure that you're counting on some short memories here ...sorry friend.

I've posted enough about Watch Me Go's credentials and pedigree therefore I'll just let you observe his performance and watch you tip-toe your way around a post race analysis after the Illionois Derby.

08 Apr 2011 5:21 PM
jayjay

Draynay : The times that you posted your picks, they didn't win.  It's easy to say you hit this and that after the fact.  What happened with your sure bet Keertana ??

Unless Jason is with you every weekend, I doubt very much that he's seen you win a number of times.  It's very easy to say you "win" when you're on the heavy favorite a lot.  Putting $200 on a 1-2 or 4-5 to me is NOT winning, but I'm sure that's what you're all about.  I bet $200 on 2 or 3 races and make $300 (profit) and I still don't consider it winning.  All it means is that I can go play the next races with someone else money.  Winning to me is when I go home with at least $500 profit.  

08 Apr 2011 6:45 PM
John T

Footlick

Lady Of The Desert was runner-up in both her last starts in group 1 races including the Prix de L,Abbaye which is run at Longchamp

on Arc day.On that form she could become one of the top European sprinters this year and because she is trained by Brian Meheen there is more than a good chance that she will be at Churhill Downs

in the fall for the Breeders Cup.

08 Apr 2011 11:39 PM
Footlick

John T-I am excited about her return.  A possible trip to the BC would be great, and another crack at the Abbaye.

09 Apr 2011 12:03 AM
furlongs

I have been on DRAYNAY's case for about a month now. I have decided to totally ignore what he says on these blogs from here on out. You can't win with a guy like him. He is never wrong and when he runs his mouth and is totally wrong like he has been on all this years Derby Preps outside of the Timely Writer STKS ($2.10) and Sam Davis STKS ($3.20), then he fails to respond and acts like nothing was said. The big question is why do we care what he thinks?? There are a couple of guys that hangout at Churchill just like him, and once you finally just get tired of listening to them how they always had the winners you just stay away from where you know they sit and chose to ignore them, it's not like they will ever really contribute before a race. You can't win with this kind of person. All I know is someone that will not step up and say he was wrong when he is when someone calls him out is not much of a man simple as that. Therefore you can continue thinking he will learn something or you can just not worry about him and ignore what he has to say cause in the end its not like he will ever point you on a horse thats more then 2-1 anyway so who cares! He is a cronic chalk player all it takes is one or two losing bets on any raceday and his profit is very little. He will bet a ton of Uncle Mo, lol that doesn't make you a good handicaper. Uncle Mo wins the Triple Crown and he has been saying it since Dec. OK so what that doesn't make him a good handicaper. Knowing a bad favorite and avoiding losing a large amount of money when your return will not justify the bet. That is a good handicaper and that is NOT what Draynay is. Even if I bet the Timely Writer Stakes (which I didn't) I sure wouldn't be on these blogs or any other bragging about it. Thats just messed up. So the only way to stop Draynay is to totally ignore him all together. After all we all know who he likes just look at the board for the blinking number... Good luck at the windows everyone.

09 Apr 2011 12:54 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

It is exceedingly clear to that I have to either learn another language or start giving lesson in comprehension. I did not compare THAS to SS. My point was that both MTB and SS lost their last two races preceding the derby. The horse I compared THAS to was Ferdinand. It does not matter now as THAS is off the trail. I noted you conveniently excluded the second horse MTB who was a better hors than SS. MTB finished a modest 4th in his last race preceding his derby win. This clearly shows you missed the point.  I gave SS no shot to win the derby because he had none in book.  He won by default and was aided by the sloppy track that a lot of the contenders did not like. If he was such a great derby winner which I dismissed, what did he do thereafter? You had him to win the TC. This shows your capacity to judge talent.

Let me restate, any horse that has trouble defeating an 86-1 $16K claimer who excited his last race on turf is not a horse that I would get overly excited about. Musket Man won the TBD in 1:43.67 and went on to win the Illinois Derby. He defeated Join In the Dance who would eventual lead the derby field for the first 6F. Do you see the $16K claimer leading this derby field? Watch Me Go time in the TBD was 1:44.25 and no winner exciting with that time has won their next race in the last five years. Watch Me Go is a very soft favorite and one notto get excited about. I have told who like from a pedigree angle. Good Luck!

NB: In spite of the failures of many who have tried to beat down the Coldfacts, there are those who are still attempting. When will they learn?

09 Apr 2011 8:12 AM
Footlick

furlongs- I have been hoping more and more would realize that and not respond to him, but everytime he posts something that he knows will get a rise out of anyone, people respond to him.  Better off ignoring him.  I used to be entertained, but not anymore.

09 Apr 2011 3:34 PM
thomas

hit the exacta woo hoo but for $2 lol

maybe mo didn't like the track? who knows

09 Apr 2011 6:34 PM
mickey 1957

now what...now what just make sure that bridge is high,when you suckers jump.

09 Apr 2011 7:04 PM
Meydan Rocks!

Well...?

09 Apr 2011 8:17 PM
mickey 1957

it's been confrimed they were ducking ...the rest of the heavy hitters,my future bets look good now.

10 Apr 2011 12:30 AM
SophieK

Notice Uncle Mo's action in the stretch? Dont be surprised if he doesnt run in the derby folks!! He galloped out bad after the Timely Writer....something is wrong with him physically....

10 Apr 2011 1:47 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

Coldfacts -“Sometimes your analysis is brilliant but at other times they are downright wild and crazy. I can think of a few examples but will spare you the embarrassment just now”

My response:

If it’s has not been exceedingly clear to you by now, I do not get embarrassed for my view points. I am by no means infallible. I am not afraid to be wrong. In a sport of glorious uncertainties one will probably be wrong more times than right. I am sure the contents of many of your posts are far more over the top than the measures ones that I have submitted.

If a vote should be taken on who should be more embarrassed for their positions you would win going away.

Below is an example of why you would win going away:

“Uncle Mo is looking good in the Wood, cantering home by 10 lengths and pulling a bus (unless Duca or "Norman" turns out to be something special, capable of finishing within 5 lengths of the champ).  This is money for jam. A soup. A walk in the park. A cakewalk. An afternoon stroll. An armchair-ride for Johnny V.  What mo can I tell you No Mo Mo”  

BERNARDINI:

I know you must be sick in bed this morning as a Bernardini colt finished ahead of the once Mighty Mo. If Mr. Dominquez was any rider he would have won the Wood.  A very poor ride!

Extract from a previous post:

It is absurd to stat that a particular freshman sire is incapable of siring a derby winner when there are at least three examples i.e., Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Seattle Slew. You are therefore being served with a cease and desist order.

WATCH ME GO/ANTHONY’S CROSS:

Your posts:

“I've posted enough about Watch Me Go's credentials and pedigree therefore I'll just let you observe his performance and watch you tip-toe your way around a post race analysis after the Illionois Derby”

“This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go.  I don't expect AC to beat PrePeg but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull off the upset. WMG is a cinch in the Illinois Derby”

My post:

Watch Me Go like Pleasant Prince his sire and dam were unraced. This pedigree combination is rare. Determine was the last and probably the only derby winner whose sire and dam were unraced. He does not have the speed figures to win the derby but will be a very historic participant.

Let me restate, any horse that has trouble defeating an 86-1 $16K claimer who excited his last race on turf is not a horse that I would get overly excited about. Musket Man won the TBD in 1:43.67 and went on to win the Illinois Derby. He defeated Join In the Dance who would eventual lead the derby field for the first 6F. Do you see the $16K claimer leading this derby field? Watch Me Go time in the TBD was 1:44.25 and no winner exciting with that time has won their next race in the last five years. Watch Me Go is a very soft favorite and one notto get excited about.

Anthony's Cross: His trainer is his greatest liability. His horses are very unreliable and rarely run good races consecutively. He is another that will be fried in the early pace. He won a race at CD in 1:47. No top class colt record those times.

Anthony’s Cross never runs two good races consecutively and therefore will not win. Watch Me Go defeated a $16000 claimer by a head. He is shipping to a new track and you expect him to win. I cannot see it happening.

You have a lot to learn and the Coldfacts is here to assist.

10 Apr 2011 10:04 AM
jayjay

Coldfacts...that's givin it to Rana.  Agreed on the cease and desist! So many rookies and "sure winner" bloggers were silenced this weekend. LOL

11 Apr 2011 1:07 AM
draynay's better half

How dare you say such things draynay!!

Mike, 2 things upset me about Mine That Bird.  The first was I didn't get my Borel bet in because I thought my wife had done it and she thought I had done it.  The second thing that upset me is he was a FLUKE winner and won only because Borel was on him.

draynay 08 Apr 2011 1:57 PM

I'm callin BS on this!! You listen here my man, you never had any intention of betting on MTB Borel or not. I'm here to tell these people the truth. You only came up with "the Borel angle" to make people think you were on to something. It's all BS and for you to blame me on your inept handicapping is ludicrous!! Now back to your holding cell!!

15 Apr 2011 3:47 PM

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