Jason, you said that the first thing you do is scratch off horses coming off of synthetic preps. That's not such a good idea when considering horses like Paddy O Prado, Make Music For Me, Pioneerof the Nile, Street Sense and Hard Spun all came off synthetic preps.

In your last blog you stated, "Finally, with two good works, Mo will be Derby favorite. Who else would it be?? Dont say Dialed In! What a wide-open Derby!!!"

Now you've made Dialed In the favorite? What's that saying, do as I say, not as I do?

My prediction is that there will be a lot of bettors looking at the show pool and trying to figure out which of the "big horses" offers the most value there.  If I remember correctly the year FuPeg won the win bet paid $8.20 and the show bet paid $4.00. That small spread isn't likely to happen this year but decent value in the show pool might be the smart bet.

Steve: I meant I scratch them for the win. Uncle Mo still has a chance to be the post time favorite. I wouldnt be shocked.

I would tend to agree with you that this is one of the worst groups of horses that we’ve seen in quite some time, I hear or see the banter for a filly to run in the Derby, and two that I think would stand a fantastic chance of doing well are Zazu and Joyful Victory.  Both are horses that relax and rate and would not find much trouble running past this group of Grade III 3 year olds.  Here are a few topics that really matter this time of year when it comes to dealing with those who should be considered as contenders compared to pretenders.

“Consider the times” – some people want to throw out times, especially when their favorite horse wins a race in a mediocre time or is just a slow horse, Dialed In falls into this category, the fact that Nick Zito is able to sell a dime store horse for a million dollar price to some on these blogs and horse racing fans in general gives indication that more and more are thinking with their hearts and not their heads. Closing the final 1/8th of a mile in almost 14 seconds took me off this horses band wagon, and well actually it should have knocked the wheels off the band wagon.  Going forward some thought that Zito would crank the horse to get him ready for the Derby, if the 4f in and uninspiring :49 gives you indication of being cranked, please feel free to lower his odds to 2-1 come post time.  The objective handicapper would not take that chance.

“Consider the Conditioning”- humans make mistakes, but underestimating the movement forward of 3 year olds this time of year by Todd Pletcher (oh yeah an eclipse award winning trainer) and running his horse short in the Wood Memorial off a series of slow works that gave no indication of building a foundation, and then the quirky prep schedule that he put Uncle MO on, well words can’t describe the disappointment of watching this horse struggle home the final ¼ mile in the Wood.  The horse was short, that is all there was to it, when breaking the gates did he break like a horse with a GI issue, excuses of that nature don’t fly with me when dealing with horses that are raked with a fine tooth comb almost every day of their lives, can he bounce back, maybe, is that likely, absolutely not, his best bet is to look for 9f races down the line to try to garner 3 year old honors. Right now ArchArchArch leads in that category with at least 2 Graded stakes win.

“Consider the pedigree” The factor ran to his pedigree on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, breaking sharp but being out footed to the lead by a couple of horses that were better out of the gate, he was in trouble early, and he didn’t like taking dirt and he didn’t like have to rate with a hold on him, these things show up when a sprinter with the need to lead type running style has to take back for the first time, he resented other horses being beside and in front of him, when they hit the stretch he ranged up and then he spit the bit, not sure if that signals good things to come for this horse at a route of ground but I would tend to say no.  What does he have, he does possess amazing speed that he can carry about a mile or so, and so leave him at that, let him take on Goldikova in the BC Mile, or maybe look at the Met Mile and other prestigious races. Be smart and take care of your horse, take a page from the connections of Turbulent Descent, they recognized that 9f was asking too much of their filly and took her back to sprints, there is nothing at all wrong with that.  Some just have the Derby Fever and can’t leave well enough alone.

Lastly “Consider the Excuse or Excuses” There are plenty of them out there, what will you do when your horse loses. Find a vet that will validate (1) a small health concern, don’t step up to the plate and say in all honesty “I had him short today”, (2) he’s not cranked, that was the excuse for Dialed In running so slow in the Fl Derby, (3) Equipment Change, anyone ever heard of “If it aint broke don’t fix it” adding blinkers, removing blinkers, figure Eight, I mean what else would we need to do to see if we can’t get the horse to run faster.  Resorting to these measures says that something isn’t right, but then when the horse resents it and throws in a clunker you want to go back to square 1, for what reason, I guess because you want a result like the one you received in the Gotham when a horse like Stay Thirsty wins by 4 lengths. “Displaced Palate” – probably legitimate, but you never know, saving face with that one in terms of The Factor is certainly not needed, he’s respected and always will be so hopefully they will get that fixed and Garcia will not be “Grabbing a hold of the horse” in the future so he can run his race. (4) Injuries have taken their toll on the Graded Earnings list.  Tapizar, Clubhouse Ride, Permier Pegasus, Author’s Tale, boys of Tosconova , there are others I may be missing but these things happen, for some reason over half mentioned on this list come from California, why is that, why can’t they get their track right to stop the injuries.  Hopefully there will be a fix soon, but the Derby Trail is affected by defections like this and its sad to see for these connections.

The Derby being wide open is an understatement, never before have we seen it like this, with such a group of inconsistent, sometimes slow horses, hopefully someone will emerge, and I see that horse being Nehro.  Sleep on him if you want.  He wants 10f and will get it on May 7. You heard it here.

Yes, this is an ever-changing and odd Derby prep year for sure! It reminds me of the famous line from "Alice in Wonderland"--things are becoming "curiouser and curiouser". I'm waiting for reports on how the various horses are training over the Churchill track.

early tri box of stay thirsty, nehro,tobys corner.

Master of Hounds.  Only 30-1?  Damn!

keep it simple, wheel dailed in w/the field for a $1 exacta box, chances are, with the way this prep season is playing out, a long shot bomber is going to probably be in there. or just play whatever horse Calvin Borel will be on, hopefully it's a 50-1.  

This is the kind of horserace that you wonder if it's time to look at the jockeys! If Calvin rides Master of Hounds, and he's a longshot Oh Oh here comes a "Mine That Bird" scenario. Johnnie V. on Uncle Mo, veteran jockey on a solid horse Hmmm Yup,  No I guess we can't go by the jockeys either, how about track conditions, No not that either- your favorite number when they enter the post? Oh forget about it-it's going to come down to performance in their first few races isn't it?!  Well I tried.

Jaycito questionable for Lexington, The Factor probable for the Derby, and Jason's FAVORITE Christine Daae to run at Gulfstream this week..

I hear JP Gusto may fly to Louisville and then van to NY?

With Astrology and now Jaycito out(possible), and Watch Me go on the fence, looks like Shackleford will probably make the field. He could be a Hard Spun type, the Factor more of a Conveyance type.

I'd be shocked if Nehro goes off as high as 20-1 but here's hoping. I agree IOWay that this might be a year to look for value in the place and show pools, even if only because feeling confident about a winner is seeming more and more impossible! But the payoffs could be decent and there is no worse feeling than watching a 20-1 shot miss by a nose and pay 15-1 to place after backing him only for the win. This certainly could be a year where a high-priced winner creates those kind of payoffs.

Ok people, I know everyone keeps bringing up this what if it rains crap for a while, but historically, the Derby has been run on a fast track. There has only been an off track 4 times since 1976, Sunday Silence, Unbridled(good),Go For Gin, and Smarty Jones. MTB and Super Saver both ran on tracks rated Fast. Let's just hope for a fast, safe track.

Incorrect Billy. Track was rated sloppy (sealed) the last two years.

hmm, just looked at website for Derby 137, said fast

www.kentuckyderby.info/kentuckyderby-history2006.php

funny how the offical chart lists the track as sloppy, yet another section of the same website says fast. Either way, it is not usually a sloppy track

Jason,

I'm with you on throwing the rules out...all of them including "The Apollo," maiden breaking performance in three year old year, equipment change, dosage, speed figures - none of it will matter because this whole field is already filled with so many rule breakers.  

With that being said, post position will matter more than ever with this evenly matched(being kind here) field. That and where Calvin Borel rides, as where ever he ends up the horse's odds automatically go down.

Wet?  Sloppy?  Ted from LA is just hoping it doesn't snow.

One thing for sure is Uncle Mo will not win the Ky. Derby. I hope he goes off as the favorite.

In 2010 only 2/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Super Saver.

In 2009 only 5/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got "The Fluke"

In 2008 only 4/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Big Brown.

2006 was a much stronger year, 11/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Barbaro.

Even 2005 was a stronger year than the last 3 years when 8/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Giacamo. Strangely some would like you to believe this was the weakest field but based on these criteria twice as many had run faster than in Big Brown's year going into the Derby.

2004 was extremly strong by these standards when 16/20 had Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Smarty Jones.

In 2003 there were 10/20 with Beyers of 100 or better for the year going 1 1/16 or longer and we got Funny Cide.

The last 3 years have been far weaker than previous years and this year it looks like we will hit rock bottom based on speed figs going 1 1/16 or longer for the year.

They keep getting slower and slower for this time of year and more and more fragile.

Very wide open and it will be even more so if the Factor does not run or does and gets a bad post. He still controls the pace scenario if he runs with a decent post but without him my selections will look very different for the win. Weather is also a huge factor, so I will begin with those 3 scenarios and eliminate as the cards unfold.  I am going with the horses who have the best mix of Foundation, Pedigree, and Running style. If the pace falls into the hands of pants on fire, I lean toward the versatile horses with foundation who have not peaked sitting off the pace. Mucho MM,MOH or Soldat. Nehro could succeed here too. Two 1 1/8 contentious preps and his continued improvement should give him enough and he is versatile.  If the pace lands in the hands of a well drawn Factor, I can see the closers making this one of the best finishes in a long time-Soldat and Mucho fade. Of the closers, I like  AAA  or Nehro (again he is versatile) and Calvins mount--I hope they are one in the same. I think Nakatani made his move to late at Oaklawn and let AAA get first jump in the far turn. At the FG, Baze  hesitated in the lane before chosing the rail. If Calvin gets on Nehro, look out. He does need a better ride. Maybe Gomez or Rosario. In the rain,  I go back to Soldat  and MuchoMM.  All predictions at this point are subject to training reports confirming foundation and readiness for Churchill surface, but those are my current picks based on the pace/weather scenarios TBD.

So you didn't have Street Sense for the win?

If there was any year for a filly to win the Derby, this is it!

Billy's Empire,

You sound confused. Better layoff the draynay kool-aid for awhile.

The way things have gone it seems a Uncle Mo/Nehro exacta box ticket is in order.

Ted, are you making it to the Derby this year?

Well there you have it...the curse has been put down on Nehro. I no longer have to ponder how I am going to use him.

For Uncle Mo's fans and to add to the "delirium"

hope you get a chuckle!

I'm SOLDAT UNCLE MO is DIALED IN TOBEY THE FACTOR.

Why on earth is anyone still talking about The Factor going to the Derby ?  Did he not get whipped bad enough in the Arkansas?  You want to run him back in 3 weeks going a 1 1/4?  Aren't you people sweet.  

Why would you box an exacta if you already are 100% sure of the winner???????????????????

I'm in the minority but I don't think it's a mediocre crop.  IMO the racing media focused on the wrong horses to begin with, so when they flopped it left many convinced that there's nobody left.  

First they grossly over-hyped an Indian Charlie colt as a potential Triple Crown winner.  Though a couple Indian Charlie's have gotten 10 furlongs, to hype one as a serious 12 furlong contender is ludicrous.  

Then they started hyping an obvious sprinter and obvious miler as serious Derby horses, i.e. Flashpoint and The Factor.  (I still think those two are standouts in those divisions but the media completely jumped ship when they failed at 9f.)

And the bozos are still at it despite the egg that they're still washing off their faces.  One writer this week even hyped Dialed In as the only consistent 3YO colt, despite the fact that his record is little different from ArchX3 or Toby's Corner (except Toby and ArchX3 are clearly faster).

Anyhow, I think there's at least 3 potential dirt routing stars this year (who shall remain nameless).  They've managed to stay under the radar and will hopefully remain there for a while longer so they go off at juicy odds.  

This is the first year in 20 years that I havent got much of a plan for betting the derby. Three year olds are improving this time of year so it will probably be very clear by the end of the year that there was a couple good horses in this bunch.

I will automatically throw out 7 or 8 of the starters as pretenders who cant get the distance. Yes that will include such horses as Mo and the Factor. We can probably toss a couple of the Blue Grass synthetic specialists that have already proven that dirt is not for them. This year we will have to keep the synthetic horses that havent run terrible on dirt. Also the hurt horses like Jaycito will have to go. This will bring the field down to 8 or so. Good luck from there as anyone can win this thing.

My plan for the derby will be to figure out who im 100 percent sure will win this thing and then only use this horse underneith all my other left over horses. None of the preps have come out as planned so the derby wont be any different

Also will probably use my cant lose horse in second with the other eight possibles on top in the exacta. It will pay 300 to 500 dollars. It wont be Dialed In to win as he is the only one who wasnt 20 to 1 when he won his last race. Shackleford ran his race on a perfect pace for him. So with a hotter pace he will be in the back at the end.

Good luck to everyone and I hope that you all can find a winner better than I can.

Time to flip the proverbial coin....this is such an open field...for myself....(and if I could bet)....I'd put my money on any horse that Calvin Borel is riding....as the saying goes, "he owns this track!!"  T'will be interesting to see the outcome.

I always box my exacta don't you ?  My top 4 are UM, Nehro, Soldat, and MMM .... workouts and post positions could change the top 4 but it's hard not to like these.

AfleetAlexforever,

With all due respect, your post is too long. Has anyone read it all?

Jason,

I posed this question to Steve Haskin, maybe you know. Did Master of Hounds have a dirt work when he was in town for the BC Juvenile Turf? I liked his performance in the UAE Derby.

I can't understand why everyone is bashing Uncle Mo. He has the best past performance (race) from this entire 3yo crop and it was at Churchill Downs! I'm sorry, but that fact can't be ignored, IMO.

In looking back at the Breeders Cup, Blame, Unrivaled Belle and Dubai Majesty, all showed a prior affinity for the Churchill Downs main track. This 'angle' just can't be ignored, IMO.

Draynay : I guess you're ignoring my post in the other blog.  I can't see you betting less than $1000 on Uncle Mo on the Derby since he's 10 lengths ahead of this crappy field right?  I also don't expect you posting anything about boxing your exotic bets.  There's no reason to do that right, UM is the next secretariat against these mules, sure winner right?

LET'S SEE YOUR BETS.

You guys cant compare horses 3 or 4 years ago to todays horses since we are in a steriod free era! The horses are fragile and slower because they are off the juice. Funny how dutrow is not a factor anymore due to steriods. Look no further than baffert & zito for your horses. One of them will hit the board so dont discount midnight and dialed in!

Draynay, I thought you had faith in Uncle Mo! Now you're making and exacta BOX with him and a maiden winner? Some fan you are! Nehro can't beat anyone in a grade 1 or even a grade 2. He didn't win, so he obviously doesn't belong in that company. You like how I use the same logic you used after the Breeders Cup Classic?

Midnight Interlude is sneaky good.  They say he's a brute so I'm sure his stamina rating is way up there.  He's also got Bafford as a trainer which greatly helps his chances.  Post position is going to play a big role with these horses since many have the same speed and running style.  We'll know more later.  I don't think this is Calvin's year but who knows!!!

Ever since he won the Wood, my mother insists that Bellamy Road will produce the next Triple Crown winner [she correctly predicted he wouldn't win any Triple Crown races himself].  

For what it's worth, back in the day she insisted Bold Ruler would produce the next Triple Crown winner.  Everybody laughed at her then, too.

For the record, she's old enough to have seen four Triple Crown winners in the flesh.

Billy's Empire

I wouldn't miss it.

Just looking back at the last couple of Derby's, there have only been 3 horse's in each of the last 4 runnings that have been 10-1 or less. Last year LAL was favorite at 6.3-1, Super Saver was 8-1, and Sidney Candy was 9.5-1. Of those last 4 Derby's, the winner has been among one of the three horses with odd's less than 10-1, Street Sense, Big Brown, and Super Saver. Barbaro won at 6.1-1, but there were 5 horse's in 2006 with odds less than 10-1. Anyone else feeling a huge pay day??

DI's final 1/8 wasn't almost 14s. I wish people would stop saying that. Here's his Fla Derby splits: www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com/.../2011-florida-derby-result-dialed-in

Don't get me wrong, it wasn't great but it also wasn't as bad as some people are making it out to be. I like DI, Nehro, MI, MMM, Archarcharch and Mo for the Derby. They're either improving at the right time, most consistent or have the running style for the Derby with tactical speed and/or late closers. And if you look at my comments on hrn.com, I've been n right about most of these horses.

Good Ted, when you get here, let's have some drinks. Jason will be buying.

Yes, Dray, I always box my exactas, but I wouldn't if I was 100% sure of the winner.  Drop twice as much on a stone cold straight Uncle Mo Nehro exacta.  Unless you're starting to rethink your position.................

Jayjay, unlike you I have posted some of my winners from the last 2 Saturday's.  You haven't and no one else has.  Why is that?  Talk all you want but until you POST some winners I am sure your just full of BS.

WinnahPickah, with very little respect to you, if you don’t have the attention span needed to read 1000 words (some 5th Graders can pull this off) then you might want to start reading horse racing books and articles with lots of good wholesome pictures that help you understand the fundamentals of the game. I appreciate you letting me know that you can’t handle reading for more than a couple of seconds, maybe I’ll throw a couple of 1 liners out there next time. Here is one.

Master of Hounds has no chance to travel across the pond and win the hardest race he’ll run in.

Dialed In is a toss and will not be on my ticket.  The horse is slow and wants no part of 1 1/4.  You believe he is going to circle the field ?  Pass on this slow moving horse.  Nehro and Toby's Corner have more upside.

Stevebiscuit, nice to see the uninformed come out and spew absolute nothiness, write off a horse with a great 10panel pedigree if you like, I guess you would disagree with Steve Haskin who says that Nehro is certainly a live play on the first Saturday in may.  I am sure you’ll take the slow, sloth footed Dialed In and Key him all over your exotics, amazing how Nehro’s time losing a grade 1 was almost a full second faster than Dialed In’s time chasing down an allowance horse at 68-1, any thoughts or will you just chalk that one up to inexperience.

Jason will not have enough money to get in the infield come Derby Day.  Last I heard, he's been unemployed for 3 years.  He doesn't get paid for this "job."  It's volunteer work.  Have you seen how he dresses on that little TV show he does for which he also doesn't get paid?  He's a nice guy, so Ted from LA plans to pass a hat that morning near the Barbaro statue and try to send him to the Derby in style.

Billy's Empire - i like your reasoning, i see a 12-1, 19-1, 8-1 and 20-1, lighting up the board come first saturday in may.  Lovely thoughts arent they.

Baffert says he will decide on jaycito tomorrow, BUT told the Jockey to stay at Hollywood and not come to Keeneland. Does not look good for Jaycito. Indian Charlie is gonna be pissed...

Meg from LA: Please do your best to get me in. I'm a big celebrity stalker and need my Kardashian/Bethany Frankel fix.

Austin, the fact still remains the horse is slow of foot with a 1 paced run trying to pass allowance horses two back which he failed to do and non winners of two last time out, can we all say it together, JUST NOT FAST ENOUGH.  Here are some real numbers for you for true contenders not pretenders.

Fractions:

1/4: 22.54

1/2: 46/53

3/4: 1:11.22

Mile: 1:36.18

Finish: 1:49.34

Internal Splits by Archarcharch:

1/4: 24.12

1/2: 23.48

3/4: 24.11

Mile: 24.82

Finish: 12.80

Fastest closing split in the filed ran by Nehro at 12.42.

Good to see nice horses closing into a pace and coming home in 12 and early change.  Not 13.

Draynay : You can spin it all you want, I had Dialed In/Shackleford, Twinspired / Brilliant Speed and ArchX3 / Nehro.  You have posted NOTHING that was worth even a dime.

Talk is cheap, if you can pick ANY race winners BEFORE the race has ran, then maybe...maybe some people will give your "chalk" handicapping skills some respect.  I highly doubt it.  There's only ONE person on this blog that actually pays attention to you and loves and idolizes you lol.  I guess in that sense you're one up on me but hey man he's all yours :)

Don't avoid the question, why would you box your bet if you think UM is a sure winner ??  There's no one that even comes close.  You're all BS with your UM, you're already jumping wagon after all your BS about him being the TC winner, better than Secretariat crap.  

The last 5 preps, you were 0 for 5...give it up.  Try the QH, I'll give you some tips on how to play them.  You need to be schooled in the betting game.  You have a lot to learn.

Speaking of American "celebrities" I just saw this headline: Kate Gosselin's bungee jump meltdown!

It turns out she has a phobia about bungee jumping.  Ted from LA thinks this is natural.  If I knew the vast majority of people would rather see me go *splat* against the earth than be saved by a rubberband, I would fear it too.

Jayjay, talk, talk, talk but still no winning tickets posted.  Not one.  Why ?  I posted some of mine and you can't post one?  You don't bet on races you just talk about races.  You don't believe those are my tickets?  Lol... do you know ANYONE besides me that does 10 dollar pick 3's at Keeneland?  Talk is cheap.  Show me, show me, show me.

I see Nehro being the wiseguy horse and going off at 10-1; maybe because of the show betting discussed above.  I also see 9 horses going off under 15-1 (Dialed In, Uncle Mo, ArchArchArch, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Toby's Corner, Midnight Interlude, Master of Hounds, Jaycito).  Total crap shoot.  If he trains well on dirt, Animal Kingdom may be my show bet. Trained to run all day and may be the only one not leg weary at the end.  I know his times are horrendously slow.  But so has the Derby final times the last few years.    

Winter Memories is back and running at Keeneland.  I believe she is the best to come along in a long time I can't wait to see her 3 year old debut.  It should be a great year for her.

Ted From LA:  No one could possibly wish to see you go splat.  You are too cool for words.  In a perversely fascinating sort of way.

Question-???

What if it turns up sloppy and 6 winners go wire to wire the other couple are right on the pace on Derby day 2011? Or lets go the other way---speed backs up all day two 1-2 shot front runners clear easily set what should be moderate fractions, then don't hit the board.

Have your picks and favorites--do your research but if you REALLY are a gambler NOTHING is set in stone. Give me 12-1 on MO and 3-2 on Dialed IN and I become a fan of MO--not going to happen but odds given are a HUGE factor---I have watched many a of pick of mine @4-5 win without my money on them. I place odds of my own if they don't jive I PASS if too short and PRESS if longer/bigger than expected.

Riddle me this? DOES ANYONE WHO IS A SERIOUS GAMBLER post winning tickets (Absolutely true story--IRS came after me 2 years after the fact for a $28,000 deposit I made and didn't declare as earnings--I didn't have a fluke win just a good weekend of gambling and thought nothing of depositing the money in a bank acct --nor did I declare the winnings actually didn't even consider it I just hit about 4 or 5 nice $50 or $60 wagers on exactors that paid well and some odds and ends win bets et---I just was hot for a couple days--Stupid mistake has I spread it out or put it in my wife's or son's acct --no problem--spent two days with an accountant on my dime and my time in front of a IRS agent)Anyone bright keeps his winnings to himself.

Afleetalexforever, in case you couldn't tell, I was being facetious. Of course Nehro is a major contender and no doubt his effort was impressive. I'm merely satirizing Draynay's logic when assessing a horse's performance. The winner isn't always the best horse.

If you're using Steve Haskin as a source then why are you critiquing Dialed In's slow finish? Haskin pointed out that in that pace scenario, Dialed In could not have come home much faster than he did. It's not because he's a slow horse, but because that's how the race panned out. Just to keep up from dropping way out of it Dialed In had to run a 47 half and it's not easy to still have a powerful closing kick after expending that much energy over a speed favoring track. Not to mention Leparoux barely touched him in the stretch and looked like he had plenty of horse in the gallop out. A horse with his breeding and running style should absolutely LOVE a mile and a quarter and in the hands of a guy like Nick Zito, he can't be ignored. And what's your beef with Shackleford? He's obviously a better horse than the public perceived him to be and with Arch x3 coming in at 25-1 it's clear that good horses can be longshots too. Not all of my money will be riding on Dialed In, but I'm sure not leaving him out.

Fahgettaboudit. LMAO. Let's hope Jason has better luck handicapping than Lefty Ruggerio. Sloppy track?...bring it on. Soldat still my choice (especially at those odds) and he had a big win earlier this year in the muck.

One thing about DI,he will run his race.The early runners depending on which of them enters are hardly brilliant,save for the Factor,and UM.Shakleford and Pants on Fire if they make the pace thats probably all they will do, Shakleford was on a speed favoring track,Pants on Fire needs a great and I mean GREAT trip to win in this field near the front. Ditto for Comma to the Top, Soldat got a gift in the FOY.Decisive Moment is an interesting presser he still had something in the stretch of the Spiral on AW.Or Could this year be one where a front runner is allowed the lead by himself with the pressers behind him, since the jockeys will only respect those two, UM and the Factor as frontrunners,and will not let them get the lead by themselves,but any other front runner could be the lone pacesetter.I will definitely have Dialed-In in my exotics,as for the win, I wont decide who to use on top until the day before or the day of the derby.I also believe there will be good payoffs in the place and show pools,so I MAY(still too far away)play a lottery ticket (small outlay of capital,need a lotta luck) tri or super and cover with exacta boxes and place and show bets.

I think there will be 10 horses at 15-1 or less.  Dialed In, UNcle Mo, Nehro (who I predict will be the wise guy horse and 3d choice), MMM, Master of Hounds, Jaycito, Midnight Interlude, ArchArchArch, Toby's Corner, Soldat.  If Animal Kingdom takes to the dirt, he could be real sleeper.  Runs slow (I know his times have been real slow), but not many of these horses want a 1 1/4 and he wants more.  Should be least weary of the runners near the finish.  

  Hey, real men don't box ! If you

can actually form an opinion, have

some cajones. It is all unclear to

the Desert Wizard at this point, but my faithful will soon be rewarded with the definitive picks.

One word of caution to you Uncle No

diehards:  you run the very big risk of looking awfully foolish. You might wanna be real discreet about that folly.You are warned.

JASON,

Relax. This crop appears worse than it really is because the Raise A Native line has failed so far and the leading lights are AP Indy line colts (Dialed In, Nehro, Pants On Fire, Bind,THAS etc) that are going to blossom in the mid to latter part of the season, causing you to eat your words of condemnation.  Uncle Mo will eventually rebound (and he is way better than many of the best of recent crop toppers) while The Factor along with Flashpoint are going to sparlkle in sprint and miler races.  Dialed In is a special one.  Just be patient and recall that Discreetly Mine (a Mineshaft colt) came into his own mid year, last year.

Dialed In is your Derby winner my friend its going to be an anti-climax (no major upset).

I love how some folks think Dialed In is too slow,but don't they realize what he was doing @ GP is basically unheard of.Only a handfull of horses come from that far back on that track like he did... TWICE! Time means nothing for closers like him who have a nose for the wire.Remember what people said about Ice Box's FLDerby last year... "he's slow & his gallop-out was non-existence",but guess who was gobbling-up ground and would've won the Derby with a more experienced Jockey?..  plus,Dialed In is much better than Ice Box,- leave him out of your tix and you'll be ripping-up tix.Expect him to unleash his fury down that CD surface he likes.

Since it looks wide-open,I think the ML favorite will be Dialed In at around 4-1/9-2,but Uncle Mo(if he goes)will take most of the sentimental money throughout the day and will close as the betting favorite @ 3-1/7-2 while Dialed In closes @ 5-1 or higher... I hope!

Toby's Corner,Arch3x,MI(no respect) and MMM(the suckers bet,too slow)seem about right.

Jaycito @ 6-1(if he wins Lexington),@ 10-1(if he's flying at finish)either way the Baffert hype will be in effect.

The Factor @ 15-1(had an excuse)

Soldat 25-1(will get lotsa' $$ if it's wet)

Nehro @ 12-1(maiden winning closer is the latest rage)

Pants On Fire @ 20-1(cuz' of the 6wk gap & front running style)

Stay Thirsty @ 35-1(I'm being generous his last was awful)

The rest have no reason running in the Derby,they should all be 60-1 or higher.

Do we have to go all the way back to Gato Del Sol in 1982 to find a KD field this bad? I hope the connections of The Factor, Comma to the Top, and JP's Gusto lose their Derby fever and place these horses where they can win. If Uncle Mo runs in the Derby and doesn't win, I wouldn't be surprised if he's retired. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he's retired before the Derby.

Decisive Moment gets no "PRESS" what so ever..Calder Horse,no name connections...But he has been at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks now...Had a better work than Stay Thirsty did....If he pays less than $100 to win on May 7th I will be very disappointed!!!!!...A freind of mine is going to Las Vegas tomorrow,I hope we can get down on him at better than 50 to 1!!!

Lets get Lucky!!!!!

Jason,

 Please refresh my memory if you can. I know that Gulfstream was very speed favoring the week of the FOY. But as I recall, the week of the Florida Derby the track played pretty fair. I'm getting kind of old so I can't trust my own memory. Thanks in advance.

At this point and on paper Dialed In looks like the best bet.

But how in the world can you bet him knowing that he would be coming from last place and trying to circle and past 19 horses.

It would be a miracle if he accomplished as much.

since this years derby handicapping will be a challenge, and one of the key factors will be the workouts, so can anyone post a link to watch derby runners working out in preparation for the derby.

i dont think the derby is wide open at all. to me, archarch and dialed in look better than anyone and maybe the back class and breeding of stay thirsty will get him in the exacta and  same thing goes for soldat in additon to his speed. throw in tobys corner and there you have it. forget everyone else. indian charlie will be done at the top of the stretch(mo)!

In this, the most crowded race of the 3Crowns I want a horse that can manuever like a race car, with speed and guts. One who is pissed like Silver Charm when another horse tries to pass him in the stretch.  Is that Midnight Interlude?  I think Mo lost and has a GI infection to increase his odds.  I am getting very disillusioned with the whole sport by what the trainers try to do nowadays.

Master Of Hounds is the best bred horse for the Derby and ran a very game second on Dubai Cup day. U.S. horses are now officially second rate. He will beat this field.

Kevin-

You think half the field is going to priced at 15-1 or below? You do realize that both the morning line odds and the odds at post time aren't arbitrary numbers, they have to make mathematical sense. The sum of the probabilities of all 20 horses should add up to 100% plus the house edge, which I believe at Churchill Downs is about 10% (can anyone confirm?) It is actually a pretty fun exercise trying to put odds on all the horses before the morning line comes out and trying to get them to sum correctly. If you've already completed this exercise and came out with ten horses at 15-1 or lower then I apologize and I'd love to see the full list, because the other 10 must all be 50-1 or higher.

My money was on Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby and that's where it'll be on may 7th. Jinks Fires and Robert Yagos team up for alot of long shot winners. I also like Nehro. You gota think Oaklawn played favorite to speed horses most the year so to have horses close like that it says sumthin. All im sayin is dnt throw these two out.

Jason, you said it beautifully. What a crapshoot. I still think Uncle Mo is better than his last race and have him, Dialed In and MMM as my top three. But that's if Mo makes it. The problem is this: can a horse who is sick and probably underprepared get enough out of the next several weeks training to win the Derby? Probably not. If Pletcher can get him to peak form considering all that, he will be a miracle worker.

Ted from LA, Kate Gosselin bungy jumping? That's a visual I can do without. Yes, we live in a world where we can't get coverage of major horse races, but Kate Gosselin has her own t.v. show while she lives off of her kids.

Jason,

When confusion sets in, that is when history comes in handy. The derby appears wide open and when such a scenario exists there are usually more questions than answers. The group that consistently provides derby winners will also provide the answers and that the Raise A Native sire line. Eight of the last 11 derbies were won by horses from the RAN sire line. In fact the last three TC races were won by horses from this sire line as well as 23 of the last 30 TC races contested. It appeared for a moment that the most Powerful Force in Triple Crown history would be without a representative in the 2011 derby field. But alas the regally bred Master of Hounds has chosen to grace us with his presence. This turn of events will ensure that the ghost of Native Dancer will continue its haunting of Churchill Downs.

Master Of Hounds from the powerful and revered RAN sire line has the best derby pedigree and most positives of all heading into the derby. He will win the derby if he can bring his A game to dirt.

Consider the following positives:

Trainer:  One of the best in the world at conditioning horses for rout races. While Todd Pletcher was embarrassing Uncle Mo by starting him in the ungraded and Timely Writer against an average group of, Mr. Obrien was making plans to ship his colt Dubai to contest Gll UAE derby on an unfamiliar surface at 9.5F. Mr. Pletcher is on record as saying he had no intention starting the once Mighty Mo at 9F for his 3YO debut. Mr. Obrian started his colt at 9.5f and lost by the narrowest of margins. Now he moves on the ultimate challenge. His record reflects he is up to the task at hand. He brought the undefeated 2YO Johannesburg who raced exclusively on turf to the contest the Breeders Cup Juvenile and defeat the best  2YOs in the US on a surface unfamiliar to him. Included in the field was the Officer the Uncle Mo of his generation. He also brought over Giant’s Causeway who races exclusively on turf to contest the Breeders Cup Classic he lost by a HD.  Now! Which trainer’s charge would you wager your hard earned cash on after reading the aforementioned cold facts?

Sire: The top class Kingmambo who is a son of Mr. Prospector who will attempt to become the 4th son of the great stallion to sire a derby winner. Kingmambo has already enjoyed classic success as he sired Belmont winner Lemon Drop kid. He is also the sire of King’s best who defeat Giant’s Causeway in the Two thousand Guineas and Dubai Destination who defeated Rock Of Gibraltar. Derbywinners Thunder Gulch, Unbridled and War Emblem were sired by sons of Mr. Prospector.

Dam Sire:  Sadler’s Wells was the leading sire in France, Great Britain & Ireland and North America during the 1990s. Champion sire in Great Britain & Ireland 14 times, as well as Champion Sire in France three times and North America once. He has produced over 293 stakes winners and 74 individual Group 1 Grade 1 winners. He was leading Broodmare sire in Great Britain & Ireland (2005-2008) Sadler’s Wells is a son of the great Northern Dancer and will be the 4th son of the great sire of sire to be a derby winning broodmare sire when Master Of Hounds succeed in the derby. The RAN/Northern Dancer cross has produced derby winners Street Sense, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus and Thunder Gulch.

Dam: Silk and Scarlet was lightly raced and G11 winner. Lightly raced and unraced mares make the best producers.

PP: he was 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1,Don, 8F) to the Godolphin/Darley owned Casamento who is possibly the only competition for the brilliant Frankel who won his 3YO debut in a graded race.

(Nothing like the Timely Writer) He was 6th in the BCJ with a troubled trip. He was 2nd in the UAE Derby beaten by the brilliant and fitter Khawlah.

I consider Master Of Hounds the total package and with the removal of steroids from US racing the playing fields has been leveled. When a colt like MOH from the most successful sire line in derby history enters the starting gates with such overwhelming positives, the derby is all but over and all others will be running for second. He has tactical speed and will be forwardly placed and like the Mighty Mo can quicken out of strong fractions. The significant difference is he has stamina to spare. Subject to correction the UAE Derby was likely his first start since his 6th place finish in the BCJT. He was very strong throughout the 9.5F of the derby on a track that required maximum fitness for success. Closer like the Dialed In, Nehro and Jaycito if he makes the race will be left for dead when this colt quickens. I will be keeping my finger and toes crossed that he can bring his A game to dirt as he will be my key horse and if the ship hit and iceberg I am prepared to go down with it.

IF SHACKELFORD AND THE FACTOR ARE IN THE DERBY THERE WILL BE A VERY HOT PACE,THE FIRST HORSE TO MAKE HIS MOVE IS UM THEN MI TAKES IT AT THE TOP OF STRETCH THEN DIALED IN EATS THEM ALL UP ,DID YOU SEE DIALED INS MAIDEN RACE? HE BROKE BAD BLEW TURN DUCKED IN AND HE STILL WON AT CHUCHILL IN HAND GUYS LOOK AT THE RACE ON YOUTUBE ,ZITO KNOWS HE GOT A MONSTER ,JULIAN CHURCHILLS LEADING RIDER ,WIN OVER TRACK.WHAT ELSE IS THERE TO KNOW ,MIDNGHT INTERLUDE IS THE ONLY HORSE THAT BE ANYTHING HE WAS WORKING WITH GAME ON DUDE, SO DIALED IN /MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE EXACTA......

I think that Calvin's little run is over. He ended it when he went BESERK at the BC. All season long, I've had the feeling that Toddy P has been hiding UM. I still doubt that he will start on May 7. Wonder what the WHITE HAIRED DEVIL has up his sleeve? Jaycito, maybe? I watched the Santa Anita Derby several times and finally realized that all MI beat was Comma To The Top who I do not consider a contender. One of the bloggers made a comment about the injured horses from the west. I went to Santa Anita every Sat & Sun all meet and saw several breakdowns including one in Sunday's 3rd race. Santa Anita cannot get the track right!

I'm with the "Dialed In is slow" crowd.  R Heat Lightning's time in the Gulf Oaks was almost a second faster at the same distance the day before (the most visually impressive race I have seen this year from male or female)...she was not even touched by Johnny V.  I don't see how she will regress much from the minimal effort she used in that race and she'll be on top in my Oaks tickets.

AfleetAlexForever, I think you have a good take on the Derby with Nehro (and your elimination of some of the pretenders), but it seems a toss up between more than a handful of horses which means I need to pick'em well in the undercard so I'll have enough left to chuck some bombs on the Derby.  I will wait and see how they look in the paddock and on the  track first (maybe one will start doing the Zenyatta dance for me).  Good luck everyone.

this is for afleet alex forever i raise you your nehro and take dialed in anyday. by far the best prep race was an allowance race that dialed in lost to an older horse. i think he has the bottom to get there. your nehro will be the wise guy horse and will take all of the peoples money.

WOW! another name from the past from msn horseracing chat. AFLEETALEXFOREVER! and COLDFACTS...i have no doubt they won't admit the 5000 i won on street sense...or the 14 to 1 i got on ravens pass in the classic that year...i told people for 3 weeks how good ravens pass was...how the biggest cinch that cup day was midnight lute....and on and on........i'm not attacking them.....i must say, they fancy themselves as some kind of experts..coldfacts will give you important "facts" like no horse with that particular color has won the derby in......or how candy ride was better breeding than bernardini...i told him bernardini was worth millions...Afleet alexforever.....thinks he is a writer...he posts.......everywhere!! good for both of these guys! horseracing needs fans who love racing......but, when it comes to being experts....i must tell you all,i have a very good memory..3 years ago both ..(i was gonna say never right about any race) but they must have been right on something...i'm not saying this to be mean, or be rude....i'm trying to save people money, by being influenced by the way they write...if you didnt know better, they sound, write in a way that might fool you into thinking they know this game..the fact guy goes on the wrong facts...the other guy thinks afleet alex was the best horse ever...they are good for the game......but when it comes down to wagering on anything they say.....

Why is it that people keep saying dialed in can't close? 14 last quarter in fl derby! they forget his holy bull race? 22 and change final quarter? how about the 2 furlongs before that final quarter?..no one has mentioned that! why is that important? look how far back dialed in was in holy bull..watch video! see that turn move? please! somebody say something! do you realize horses have about a 3 furlong move in them? not only did he make a huge move to get into contention,he then closed 22 and change AFTER that move!!!! and i have to listen to people on here say he can't close? have any of you seen his 1st race? no way he could win from where he was! freak move! and people say he can close in 14!!! by the way...watch the fl. derby video...you see a horse way back that makes big move and wins...the big move was early...how many other horses moved in that race? none..it was the prep with the best field.....now everyone ran bad..but on paper it was....and he flew by all and not 1 other moved at all...so soldat can only run last eighth in 16?  dialed in hung a little because he ran on the turn..dialed in's last 2 races were good not great.....but that is what you want to see in a pick.....you don't want a horse like nehro!!!!! the lemon has been squeezed!!    

SilverCharmForever :  You were not serious when you said UM lost the Wood to increase his odds in the Derby right ?  But yeah, Midnight Interlude is much much more mature and much more a racehorse than some of the crop this year that didn't transform their 2 yr old form to this year.  MI's run in the SA Derby was very impressive.  Can he do it again ?  Will he do it again ?  Will he keep his jockey (if TF doesn't run) ? We'll see.

I have to study MoH, I don't know anything about this foreign horse but there's quite a few that's actually high on him.

Ranagulzion : What if UM comes back to form ?  I take you really totally forgot about Uncle Mo, it's okay, you jumped into the right wagon.  At least you're able to accept the hype for what it is.  We prefer not to have too many in the DI wagon, a juicy price is more desired.  Stop spreading the word.  Let the Draynay spew...I mean speak.

Jason

You're right.  A disappointing year especially when it looked so promising way back when.  There is one other colt with a 100 plus Beyer going around two turns and that is Soldat with his 103.  Maybe R. Heat Lightening should skip the Oaks and go directly to the Derby.  I believe that she fired off a l08 Beyer.  

Need I say more???

I hope we see Master of Hounds at 30-1 , that would be very tempting odds on a horse that has already run further than any of the domestic entrants. His race in the UAE Derby was impressive, laying just off the pace in an approximate 1 3/16 mile race, and still having enough left to keep going, only losing at the wire to a very good filly, Khawlah. Khawlah already owns one stakes record, the UAE Oaks ran in 158 2/5. she is a royally bred filly :

Bred by Darley, Khawlah is the first foal from the winning Villarrica. Her second dam is English stakes heroine Melikah (IRE), who is herself a half-sister to European Horse of the Year and dual classic winner Sea the Stars (IRE); dual classic-winning European champion and international sire Galileo (IRE); multiple Group 1-winning Italian highweight Black Sam Bellamy; Irish highweight Urban Ocean (GB); classic-placed Group 3 victress All Too Beautiful (IRE); and Grade 1-winning millionaire My Typhoon (IRE).

Khawlah's third dam is thus French highweight Urban Sea, queen of the 1993 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. This is also the family of Two Thousand Guineas hero King's Best and Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) victor Anabaa Blue, both successful sires.

Remembering that the UAE Derby was run over a tapeta surface we can only guess what may be possible for MoH on a dirt surface. We do know he can run successfully with quality horses and we know his style of attending the early pace is a style that could keep him out of trouble in a packed field. At 30-1, no doubt worth a stab in this Derby.

Watch his last race , March 26th, here:

www.youtube.com/watch

You are way off on Nehro--he'll be close to favoritism--he looks like he'll improve at ten furlongs--most in here look like they sway towards 1 1/8 types--Nehro at 20-1?...right!....he may be favored....

Midnight Interlude/Nehro/Jaycito box box--think The Factor will run MoMo down and the stamina will prevail--not sold on Dialed In but will include him, based on my observation that this year's Derby is stamina-challenged--think Baffert is loaded for bear--Midnight Interlude gonna open up some eyes back there.....

MikeM-

I hope there are a whole lot of people that think just like you. Anyone who bets Master of Hounds HATES money simple as that. All I hear is how light of preps these horses have and you are touting a horse with 1 race since Nov 2010. and it was in the sandbox of Dubai! LOL your funny. Yeah the best bred horse in the race wins the KY Derby often, btw. Master of Hounds is a complete throwout in the Derby just like all the other horse that ran in Dubai. I mean his prep work over the winter to win the Derby makes Uncle Mo's look grueling! Yeah you can take all that breeding in the world but if your not ready to run you haven't got much a chance. Ask Point Given (who is 10 times better then Master of Hounds ever will be) if you do not believe me. I would BE shocked if Master of Hounds hits the board in the KY Derby and thats more then I can say about most of these horses...

"Hold your horses!" - an apropo expression for this year's Run for the Roses! Probably the best handicappping information to use this year will be the appearances and works that the derby entrants/contenders will do during the final two weeks at Churchill before the big dance. So "Hold Your Horses" until the Works are done.  Things will become clearer and you can begin forming solid opinions that will guide your betting strategies. Good luck and enjoy! Isn't this fun!

WinnahPickah;

As I posted on Steve's blog; according to DRF, Master of Hounds had NO timed workouts before last year's BC.  He's also a tossout.

Dubai Dave;

Smart men do box. It's about cashing a ticket, nothing else. With the way this Derby is shaping up, if you like 3, 4or 5 horses you'd be a fool not to box them.  Even draynay, the world's most renowned winning ticket poster, would agree.

Right now my four are;

ArchX3

Nehro

Midnight Interlude

Toby's Corner

I'm hoping Shackleford and Santiva get in.  Looking forward to being there a week from Monday.

If The Factor is healthy, he will not be a rabbit. He is capable of taking it all the way.Can you say wire to wire?

Midnight Interlude will hang around in the middle before the start of his big run as seen in the SA Derby.

Jaycito will be the closer and will come running before the final turn only if he is healthy enough to make it to the big dance on May 7.

With all that said, Baffert is sitting on a WIN for his 4th KD.But if TF & JAYC won't make it,then Midnight Interlude will be the one to bring the ROSES back to California since Giacomo.

That was actually kind of interesting because for moment there I had harnessed the power of Draynay. I just said the most ridiculous thing I could think of that I knew would get a rise out of people. So that's why you do it Draynay? Are you that starved for attention?

Question :  What timeline would you give UM given that they are still treating his GI with 2 1/2 weeks left.  If he's okay by next Monday, is there enough time to put in two works and say 100% ready by May 7th ?  

Gambling aside, I really would like to see him make it to the Derby.  I will root for him (for Mike Repole) to win the Derby and I wouldn't mind him beating me.    For some reason, he kind of reminds me of Point Given.  If he's as good as PG, I would like to see him have a chance.  

When your picks odds are 1/9-3/5-2/5.... u HAVE to play a

$10.00 pk3...just to get your wager back..i guess...Thanks dray...keep the picks coming!! Really cant explain my gratitude...I have never had to sign so many tickets in my life!!! Loving it...Please be sure to post your picks before the derby...i need to pay off my house! thanks dray, keep up the great work! seriously, keep it up..

Winter Memories is back and running at Keeneland.  I believe she is the best to come along in a long time I can't wait to see her 3 year old debut.  It should be a great year for her.

Draynay 19 Apr 2011 5:20 PM

Oh how quickly they forget. Now draynay has tossed RA aside for Winter Memories as the best to come along in a long time. Does this guy ever quit coming up with a different the best in a long time?

He's all about the new flavor of the day in his mind.  

John, Good point on the traffic issues that the closers run into. If the track is dry (big if), remember the BC races last fall. Blame takes down Zenyatta. Blame liked the track. We know Dialed In can win there, but so can Mo and it seems Decisive Moment and a few others are taking to it.

I still say Crimson China will be one of the best three year olds when it is all said and done.

If catches any pace in either of his two prep races he wins.  If he gets into the Spiral instead of his stablemate (Animal Kingdom) he wins.

I know he got out closed in the Blue Grass, but I think he is bred for dirt.

In a weak class he stands out to me as a horse who should be in the derby.

" IMO the racing media focused on the wrong horses to begin with, so when they flopped it left many convinced that there's nobody left."

Amen to that! Arch-cubed won 2 of last 3 of the Arkansas prep races. Toby's Corner ran below par in the Gotham, but his people had the time to regroup and give him another race; blinkers on worked a treat in the Wood - he is 4 for 6 lifetime. Dialed In is 3 for 4 lifetime and lost only to an older horse.

Campaigning to keep a horse undefeated is incompatible with challenging him to up his game. Thank goodness for the Derby Trail and Triple Crown or we would never see all these horses tested against one another.

sorry..... you are all wrong.

Great horses - ALL!

Great race?  OH YEAH!

Great jocks, great horses - go  for the roses!  Be safe.

As I recall, in most of the last 20 years or so, most of the 3yo crop was called subpar by some before the Derby.  I remember especially the Curlin/Street sense/Hard Spun/Rags to Riches year being called inferior by several experts.  You never really know until the year is over!

I like AAA and Shackle.

jayjay, If it is true that you had the exacta in the Florida Derby, the exacta in the Blue Grass and the exacta in the Ark Derby you are my idol. I beg to differ. I can see maybe you had one but all 3. Stop the nonsense. Unless you are boxing 6 horses for the exacta then maybe, just maybe you might have had all 3. In any case if it is true please do me and everyone else on this blog a favor and post your picks for the Derby before the Derby is actually run!!! Please don't tell us you had it on the monday after the Derby!!  

No off track predictions or how the track is playing Derby day-seems no one cares about it--OK

Variables--Am I the only one who cares about them before making picks?--Not to mention betting my hard earned money? We still don't know who is actually running and the pace scenarios. What about the works leading to the Derby on the Churchill surface.

You all get a D-F in foresight.

Corny but--All will come to those who wait.

I agree with your assesment jason that this years Derby is wide open. I have a top 12 list and hope to whittle it down after the crucial PP Draw in 2 wks. 1. Dialed In - A reliable closer that likes CD 2. Uncle mo - if he runs, he loved CD, can't be overlooked 3. Master of Hounds - Longshot Price, terrific horse. Will get the distance, has tactical and cruising speed, only question will be how he handles the dirt, he's from ireland and is used to travellig abroad for big races, travel shouldn't faze him. 4. Mucho macho man - training well, can toss his last race when he lost his shoe. 5. Nehro - don't like the fact that it will be his 3rd race in 6 wks, though a dynamite closer. 6. ArchArchArch - has a real chance, another dynamite closer 7. midnite interlude - beat a fast comma to the top in the SA derby, will close fast 8. Toby's Corner - may hit the board, but not good enough to win. 9. Shackelford - likes CD, dangerous, but another that I think won't win. 10. Pants on fire - a good PP will give him a chance to hit the board, but not win 11. Soldat - if you toss the Fla. Derby, he could hit the board, won't win 12 - Santiva - don't like the 3 wks. rest, though likes CD, toss his last race he was boxed in badly.

dubai to derby doesn't work the sheiks have giving up trying and they have the worlds best bred horses throw out master of hounds

Joeywoge, you won't see a winning ticket from jayjay.  Not now not ever.  All he does is talk about winning tickets.  Somehow he can't just take a cell phone picture of one of his winners.  Search hi and low and you won't find a single win ticket except on MY FACEBOOK.  Everyone is just blowing smoke on this blog.  I do not believe Dialed In is worth a bet at all for the Derby he seems sure to finish 5th or 6th.

I think Pants of Fire, ArchX3, and Nehro all have pretty decent shots. Midnight Interlude is one to keep an eye on also. I'm not willing to write off Mo just yet, either. The Derby is where a lot of horses defy the odds and all logic, so who knows what to expect on the first Saturday of May.

ALTERNATION IS A HORSE TO WATCH FOR IN THE PREAKNESS,ALOT OF PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT NEHRO HE WENT OFF 15-1 WHEN HE BROKE HIS MAIDEN AFTER A COUPLE OF STARTS THIS HORSE IS OVERRATED HE WILL BE LIKE FIRST DUDE TAKING SUCKER MONEY FUNNY ASSMUSSEN NEVER TALKED ABOUT THIS HORSE AT ALL....

First of all I want to say that i am a Dialed In fan, have been from the begining.I named my fantasy playoff league after him back in december all my buddies laughed but i don't think they are laughing anymore, but the way things are going anybody can win it. Something tells me "Karma" and the "Racing Gods" are gonna have a role in this too. Call me crazy but wouldn't it be something if Joyful Victory won the OAKS and Santiva gets in and wins the DERBY.Maybe that will be PAYBACK or maybe REDEMPTION for one Mike Smith. Crazy maybe but not IMPOSSIBLE

hmm...i would like one of us to have pathogens in our gastrointestinal tract, causing an infection, and try to run a race...let's see how that works out for any of us...

Box - AAA, Toby's Corner, Nehro and Dialed In.

I don't see too much about Archarcharch, but he has speed ratings as good as anyone. Plus wins at 6 furlongs and 9 furlongs. If you are right, 12 to 1 will be sweet.

The tote will be lit up with longshots this year.

Let's assume Mo was feeling the effects of that GI infection during the running of the Wood. OK, now what?  Also assuming he will be healthy enough to run in the Derby, will he be fit enough?  If he's fit enough will he be able rate off The Factor - or whatever speed there is - and have the punch to put away the field?  Will his pedigree limit his effectiveness at classic distances? There are so many questions surrounding this horse that it makes my head spin. None of this would affect my handicapping if it weren't for the undeniable fact that this is one superbly talented horse when he's on his game.  Unless he's the second coming of Seattle Slew I really can't see him as a major player in the Derby.  But you always have to wonder with a horse this talented..

Coldfacts,

You are putting a huge burden on Master Of Hounds to carry the flag for the RAN line.  He is a good horse but I think that the writing is on the wall; no RAN line horse is winning the Derby this year.  Ironically it might be the year of AP Indy, but not via the pensioner or his heir apparent, Bernardini. Mineshaft (the best ever AP Indy son) has two colts Dialed In and Nehro capable of breaking the derby duck for "AP".

Your other fancy, Brilliant Speed is another "Bluegrass pretender" a la Stately Victor or Monba and will not ...I repeat ...will not hit the board.  

The Bluegrass Stakes has become a backdoor into the derby for turf/synthetic specialists that is keeping other legitimate Derby horse on the outside looking in.  The graded earning system is fine but some adjustment re: The Bluegrass would be in order.

Carlos in Cali,

Way to go ma brethren.  Get your groove back on Dialed In.  I like your analysis.

KY VET,

I enjoy reading your posts except for the constant attacking of Coldfacts and Afleetalexforever.  Why do you think that you have to berate other posters to promote your brand of "expertise"?

Coldfacts in particular is a very credible poster on here with a good track record.  You hurt your own credibility by trying to knock his when most bloggers on here already appreciate the "professor's" statistics, facts, and historical perspectives. His knack for spotting the under-the-radar upsetter or near-miss runner-up is well documented here.  Therefore, as professor Coldfacts would say "CEASE and DESIST with your personal vendettas!!!"

Lets enjoy the ride my friend.  Peace.  

No personal vendettas although I post fun of the biggest supporter of Prop 19 --Dray-- (He must be? Right?)

Am thinking with the confidence before the field is even posted--all should go to handicapping school. Top 5 or 10's fine--picking the winner without the field set-------Do any of you play poker????

Love to play against a player that doesn't look at his cards. Maybe Kreskin and Dionne Warwick have a "special in"---- but heres saying none of you do. Dray's all of you.

Astrology a graded stakes winner takes on Cal Nation.  What a race this will be.  Cal Nation looks better and better thanks to Dance City.  Look for Cal Nation to dominate and head into the Preakness the one to fear.

Look for Cal Nation to dominate and head into the Preakness the one to fear.

Draynay 20 Apr 2011 3:49 PM

What about your triple crown lock uncle mo?

Need I say more???

Release the HOUND 19 Apr 2011 11:25 PM

You didn't say anything!!

Ummm maybe you haven't heard but Uncle Mo is not in the Jerome this Saturday.  Look for Cal Nation to take down Astrology  and dominate this group.

Draynay - I also think the winner of that race will be worth some condieration on Preakness day.

Given the fact that the Kentucky Derby has a ridiculous 20 hourse field and that there are very few American contenders for 12 furlongs, one could certainly argue that the Preakness is the truest race of the Triple Crown series.

I always box my exacta don't you ?  My top 4 are UM, Nehro, Soldat, and MMM .... workouts and post positions could change the top 4 but it's hard not to like these.

Draynay 19 Apr 2011 3:43 PM

Add Soldat and MMM to draynay's ever growing list of "winners" in the Derby. The count is now up to 5 horses he has said will win. Uncle Mo, Santiva, Nehro, Soldat, and Mucho Macho Man. He's not done yet!!

Look for Cal Nation to dominate and head into the Preakness the one to fear.

Draynay 20 Apr 2011 3:49 PM

What about your triple crown lock uncle mo?

changes like the wind 20 Apr 2011 3:56 PM

I guess I have to ask twice for you to understand. Cal Nation the one to fear in the Preakness? What about your "lock" Uncle Mo?

I always box my exacta don't you ?  My top 4 are UM, Nehro, Soldat, and MMM .... workouts and post positions could change the top 4 but it's hard not to like these.

Draynay 19 Apr 2011 3:43 PM

Add Soldat and MMM to draynay's ever growing list of "winners" in the Derby. The count is now up to 5 horses he has said will win. Uncle Mo, Santiva, Nehro, Soldat, and Mucho Macho Man. He's not done yet!!

mr pibb 20 Apr 2011 4:16 PM

It may be up to 6, just depends on which horse Calvin Borel is riding?

Mr. Pibb, Uncle Mo, Santiva, Nehro, Soldat, and Mucho Macho Man looks like a very nice 5 horse Tri Box to me doesn't it look good to you ?  My Uncle Mo and Nehro Exacta Box looks good to me too.  2:24, Cal Nation is a beast I think this will be his coming out party.

Jaycito to the Derby off of 1 prep???? Maybe the Factor is going to be a rabbit...

Why the heck is Watch Me Go going to the Derby, taking Shackleford's spot? Derby Fever.

Going to have to gain some kind of advantage by being on the backside for the next few weeks. Summer Soiree and Animal Kingdom to work Sat, BUT rainnnnnnn

If Draynay picks all 20 horses to win, he can still maintain his streak of picking the Derby winner the last few years, (except for picking Mine That Bird).

It is ironic that Galileo is highlighted as the brilliant colt was trained by the brilliant Mr. Obrien We are talking about a colt trained by a great trainer and not Todd Pletcher. Do you believe he would waste time taking this colt to the derby if he thought he would be embarrassing the horse and his major owners? He had no hesitation taking the colt to Dubai to run 9.5F off a 4-5 months break. Name one trainer in the US that would fly a quality colt to another country off 4-5 month rest to run 9 1/2F on an unfamiliar surface? With the exception of CA’s Mr. Cho who is a little crazy, I can think of none. There is absolutely no pressure on MOH as has a pedigree that rules the Derby and TC. It appears Astrolgy will not go and therefore only Brilliant Speed and MOH have the pedigree combination that has produced past derby winners. My focus is not so much on the colt but instead on the conditioner. Why out of the blue have they decided contest the Derby after avoiding it for years. They have to know something we do not. If this can perform on dirt I am positive he will run to his pedigree under the skillful hands of Mr. Obrien

“Your other fancy, Brilliant Speed is another "Bluegrass pretender" a la Stately Victor or Monba and will not ...I repeat ...will not hit the board”

How many dirt races has he won? None! He got beat a combined 30-40 lengths in his two dirt appearance.

How many turf races has BS won? None! I think he was runner up twice.

How many synthetic track races has he won? One! He did so in impressive fashion.

Who sired his dam? Gone West the sire of Belmont winner Commendable

Who sired his second dam? Deputy Minister dam sire of Curlin (Preakness); Sarava /Jazil/Rags To Riches (Belmont) Sire Touch Gold ( Belmont)

Who sired his third dam? Buckpasser dam sire of Touch Gold (Belmont); Grand sire of derby winners Silver Charm/Spend A Buck.

Who sired his fourth dam? Northern Dancer - grand dam sire of four derby winners.

This colt is total router and has a proven derby pedigree. Most of the contenders have suspect derby pedigrees. His BG win was the most impressive in the last 5YRS. Review the video and look at what his ride did. At he off he just casually took him to the rails in last. He seem unperturbed at the back of the field on a horse he was riding for the first time.  At the top of the stretch he confidently angled him six wide and mowed them down running his last 2F in 22 and a bit. Not even Street Sense closed that fast. No ordinary colt runs that type of race.

Churchill Downs has been kind to turf/synthetic track horses i.e. Barbaro, Mine That Bird, POTNETC. I believe this colt has a good shot to close for apiece of the cake.

The Kentucky derby is not a regular race and has produced some incredible results. Who would have thought before MTB that the Sunland Derby would have produced a winner? Do not knock the BG it has already produced a Derby winner. When was the last time the Wood, LA Derby Lanes End etc. produced a winner?

Snow may cover the ground but not the hopes of spring!

After the weekend the earnings list will be more defined,even if it turns out to be only the bottom of the list that there is movement.After you know who is in,you have to determine who has no chance to hit the board,and without post positions, Im not so sure this is as easy as last year.I agree with the notion that at this point you better only have a rough draft of who has the best chance,because IMO there are two many questions for all the contenders.So if your picks are set in stone, narrowed down to one or two,dont bet the house on it.

This Jaycito situation is killing me. I wish they would just say that he is off the Derby Trail. He has definitely been in my Top 3 Derby Prospects since last Fall up until this week. He can't seriously make any noise off one prep and a sore foot can he? If he does and I'm not on him I am going to be beside myself.

Keeneland should be a fun day on Thursday and this will be my first pick 3 starting in race 2.

Race 2 plenty of speed in here and I will go 3 deep here with the 4,5, and 7.  Strike the Tiger is really falling here but Shore Do can flat out run on poly so he may be ripe for the upset.

Race 3 has a lot of cheap claimers in it and it's hard not to look at the 8 horse as the winner here.  He is dropping like a stone and the trainer is on fire.  He should win on looks alone.

Race 4 looks like Zeb is going to try to win it on the break and there is some other outside speed here which should only help Bergerac who should get a perfect trip here and third off a layoff doesn't hurt.

TICKET  4,5,7 with 8 with 2,4   10 dollar pick 3 cost 60 bucks.

Whittingham won the Big Cap with Cougar II off NO preps--1 1/4 with high weight--won without preps cuz he didn't want more weight---it can be done--I'm glad Baffert is not prepping him late--I think Jaycito has a fighting chance IF he draws in.....this year's Derby has two colts, The Factor and Uncle Mo, who are going to take much action, and they are both gonna fold like cheap paper bags! Get on your stamina horse and don't get off! Think Nehro, Midnight Interlude, even Brilliant Speed--horses who have arrived late to the party, so to speak--are gonna rock this year's party!

IF YOU THINK NEHRO GOING OUT AT 20-1 THAT WOULD X-MAS IN MAY

joeywog : I posted my picks for all those on Jason's blogs BEFORE the race was ran.  Unlike the other guy that takes pictures of everything and anything.  LOL Draynay, you getting out your cronies cause you won't POST how much money you're betting on your superhorse UM like I"ve been asking you??

I can't believe the Silver Medallion may be the one that kicks Jaycito off the Derby.  I was hoping that Jaycito can use this Lexington as an easy prep, not needing it to get in the Derby.  My only worry is that Silver Medallion will be much much closer to the pace than Jaycito, just hope that Jaycito hits the board.

A quick online poll; Who is more trustworthy and/or believable.

A Politician- Lindsey Lohan- or Draynay?

Starting to like Mucho Macho, my original pick Prepeg.  Mucho seems the most consistent, sort of like Jackson Bend was last year.  Jackson didn't do anything but this is a different field.  If I had to have exacta box-Dialed In and MMM.

Billy,

I doubt The Factor will be Jaycito's rabbit,they have 2 seperate ownerships.

My feeling is The Factor's people think he deserves another shot after his AR Derby fiasco and this time they're going to let him roll to the front.

With Jaycito,Baffert is probably relying on his supposed endless endurance,but off of one so-so prep race... Nah!... will he?

Sold! To the man with the Chili bowl haircut!

Hello Racing fans,I am passing through..I have to ask all of you

if you all did read the newspapers

2 weeks ago when Uncle Mo was entered to run in the Wood Memorial ,at Aqueduct?well the Trainer Pletcher exclaimed that Uncle Mo would only have to show up to defeat his competition,and he was fit, and ready to go!!now when he got beat, Pletcher is saying now that the horse was sick, and that's why the horse lost.. guess what, I dont believe the Fat LIE, he called in the Vetinarians, to say that the horse was sick, trying to appease the owner Repole

and now, since then, the daily Papers are saying Pletcher is "watching MO"..Pletcher can fool most of you guys, he cannot fool me, they got beat, badly..they have no answer, and are now saying if Uncle Mo is not 100% he dont know if they will go!!!they have already tasted defeat, and Pletcher cannot find another excuse when Uncle Mo gets beat again, if they do go to kentucky, so he is already trying to duck the race to save face, and possible keep the owner REPOLE, hence they will say he did not train well and they are not going, we are awaiting for this next episode!! then when they do that,you all will know the guy Pletcher is,personally Uncle Mo cannot win the Derby, so they might as well scratch from now, and save them the embarrasment..

Uncle Mo,when he won at Churchill last year, breeders cup, he only defeated horses that were not primed as he was, and now most horses have improved, pletcher is now singing a different tune!the biggest bet I ever will make is that Uncle Mo will not run in this 2011 kentucky Derby, I am calling this out before they do!!even if they do run, no doctor can medicate Uncle Mo to win any Kentucky Derby,,good Bye Uncle Mo

Coldfacts,

You should write a book:  Picking a Derby Winner on the First Saturday in May.  I'd buy it.  Particularly if you dedicated it to Ted from and Single in LA.  You're a cornucopia of knowledge and I don't even know what cornucopia means.

Does anybody remember "Santiva"? I will at 67-1. He got knocked and squeezed, but that is the exact type of "prep" that you want!

Well said, Dennis.

How many shooters were on the grassy knoll?  In what country was Barack Obama actually born?  Who shot JR?  Who planted that nest on The Donald's head?

But I digress.  I also doubt Uncle Mo will make the race.  There will be two defections from the Top 20 earnings list before Derby Day.  Ted from LA said so.

Come on Dennis; Pletcher would never send a horse to the gate that is never 100%..For sure Johnny V would never take a horse to the post parade tell a ex Jock the horse does not feel right and then run a race..Or would he??

I am not a Vet but if a horse has an infection were is the temprature to go with it??

personally Uncle Mo cannot win the Derby, so they might as well scratch from now, and save them the embarrasment..

Dennis 20 Apr 2011 7:42 PM

NO, NO, don't scratch him. He will take all Draynay's money, therefore giving a lot higher odds on all the other horses!  

Just to remind you, Ted: I'm gonna make the race this year regardless of the "vetinarians", who, if I am not mistaken, have something to do with ex-servicemen (am I wrong?).

I borrowed a HAT and everything.

Dialled In.

Master of Hounds.

Soldat

Animal Kingdom?  Shackleford?

Who knows?  I'm gonna throw  Hawaiian Birth Certificates from the top floor of a Texas Book Depository and try to read the omens from the results.

Hmmmmm....just thinking about MO.  I have heard a lot of talk about MO's GI infection affecting him, however I want to know HOW a horse can get that. It just seems ODD to me. Did MO get this while in New York?  How would a horse get this?  Could it have been because of something in his food?  If so, what would that be?  If not food borne, how else?  Also, WHEN could this have happened?  Before the Wood?  When?  Is this unusual for a horse to have this condition?  Somebody needs to shed some light on this for us.

Johnny,

 Good question, I was wondering the same thing, if a horse has an intestinal infection, would he have a temperature too? The answer I think is he may not have a temperature. I'm no vet,but if I base this on something I experienced, when I had an intestinal infection, I did not have a temperature to go along with it, what I did have was alot of discomfort and pain. When I went to the doctor, I was diagnosed with an intestinal infection. Some intestinal antibiotics later and I was feeling well in no time. I can't say the same is necessarily true for horses, but if it is, I can certainly understand Uncle Mo's not running to the best of his ability. I don't want to buy into the opinions that Pletcher is lying; and I expect he will run him in the Derby, as I think he will being doing better in no time.

MO has got an infection

DIALED IN won in a lousy time

The FACTOR is still trying to finish his last race

MASTER OF HOUNDS lost to a filly in dubai and in grass

Stay Thirsty, never mind,  not woth the time to describe him.

Soldat, burned out before the first week of may

There are no Big Browns in this crop. So you guys looking for a big price with a decent chance of winnig get ready for and ARCHARCHARCH at 12-1 not bad at all.

Jason, maybe someone else already commented on this...but there are two 3 year old colts that have run a two turn triple digit BSF this winter. In addition to The Factor's Rebel, Soldat did so in his allowance win at 1 1/8 miles in slop at GSP.

Not sure why you think sanity will prevail over Derby Fever with JP's Gusto (per one report, his "trainer" does not know where the horse is right now, but does think he is being pointed for the Derby.) The Factor is a go if he trains well, and Comma To The Top is, too. I agree with you that none of these horses should enter the Derby, but should be used more wisely. I'd send any one or all of them to Met Mile instead.

Thunder going to NBA finals this year....Giants gonna repeat this year.....Stanford in Col Football/Andrew Luck best QB since Manning/maybe even better (faster....)...Kentucky Derby The Factor/Uncle Mo will get much play--Comma To The Top insures a fast pace--stamina will rule the day/race itself is wide open, betting wise--however, I believe it will be a well spread out finish--based on my belief that very few in here are wanting the 1 1/4 distance....Nehro, Archarcharch, Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed--you can't go wrong, looking at these four and watching them closely--find the horse, it's a closer, who can rate off the pace, which will be hot! Maybe not a deep closer--only on Derby Day will he be that far back--but he's a horse who can close into a fast pace and get the 1 1/4--am loving Midnight Interlude and Nehro right about now--Brilliant Speed gets in cuz of Mr Rosario, and the said fast pace....Archarcharch makes those big moves--he's in, as well--four horses--there are not very many in here to fear--think those excuses are just that--excuses! Uncle Mo/The Factor won't be getting my $ on Derby Day--I'm playing the horses who look to have the most stamina....

Betty

I sincerely hope your DI-MMM exacta comes in, because I boxed it in Pool 1.

On another note...yes, it is still too early to be confident with any sort of pick.  But I don't think anyone should be criticized for making selections.  Trying to predict the outcome of a major race in advance is what makes horse racing fun and exciting for many fans.  When so many are saying that horse racing is dying because it isn't attracting new fans, why would you want to disenchant those who are enjoying the very essence of the sport; i.e. trying to predict a winner?

This year's Derby is a real crap shoot.  I wrote a number on 20 index cards, threw each up in air, and those that landed face down were eliminated, those face up were rethrown.  I finally wound up with #5.  That's who I'm betting in the Derby.  Also Midnight Interlude and any horse ridden by Calvin.  All three ATB, exacta and tri-fecta boxed.  Don't confuse me with facts.  My mind's made up.  Well... for today, anyway.

Forget unca schmoe, I've been telling you for many months that he's not going to win the Ky. Derby and he won't. Even draynay is backpeddling as fast as he can on the unca schmoe. With every exacta box he comes up wit he predicts a different winner.

Premier Pegasus was the best 3 yr old in the country before he got injured and he would have won the Triple Crown. Now we have to hope he can come back from injury and hold our breath that he comes back somewhere near the same. Start this year by tossing Animal Kingdom, Pants On Fire, Decisive Moment, Shackelford, and Twice The Appeal for the win. The only way any of these has a chance to win would be if draynay put his curse on by picking the other 15 which is still a possibility. Stay tuned for further advice on who to toss out.  

The Rock : Here are my picks for the Lexington and Jerome (using equibase entries lineup) :

LEXINGTON :

1,4/1,4,6/ ALL

1,6/1,2,6/1,2,6,4

2,6/1,2,6,5/1,2,6,5

JEROME :

1/2,8/2,8,3,5

1/2,6,7/2,6,7

1,3/1,3,2/1,3,2,8

1,8/1,8,2,5/1,8,2,5

2/1,5,3,8/1,5,3,8

Good luck to all betting this weekend!

Toby's Corner, Nehro, Midnight Interlude...

Ted from LA,

I'd guess that "cornucopia" means digest the cold facts but take the conlusions with a grain of salt (LOL).  

BTW how many Kentucky Derby winners have Coldfacts spotted recently?  I don't think that he's gonna score this year either because we are looking at a shut out of the Raise A Native line horses (only represented by Master of Hounds and possibly Watch Me Go).  

Coldfacts doesn't associate Dialed In's large upper body with the large lung and heart passed on to exceptional horses like Secretariat by inbreeding to Princequillo. Instead he sees it as militating against the colt's stamina.  That's the kind of odd conclusion that, when you draw it, you end up like a pig pulling a cartload of sausages ...you get what I mean Ted?  The "professor" is drawing his own conclusion (LOL).  I agree the book would still be good.  

i812Many,

He did it again with his latest P3 @ Kee. Chalk Chalk Chalk

Hey Draynay, have you not heard about The Factor flipping his palate. Martin Garcia stated he could hear him gurgling down the backstrech. Don't count him out yet, this guys not done he had some bad luck. That's my opinion.

Wishing that the Derby was a 14 horse field and that these were the horses entered.

Uncle Mo

AAA

Nehro

Sway Away

Dialed In

Shackleford

Toby's Corner

Soldat

Santiva

Mucho Macho Man

Pants on Fire

Midnight Interlude

Stay Thirsty

Master of Hounds

no mo mo - toss out Pants on Fire if you want.  I'm including any horse Rosie is on in my exotics.  Not sure there is a better jockey in the game at this point.

JayJay, Enjoy

Jerome: Going with Astrology in this one. I think Cal Nation will be kept honest by Adios Charlie & Justin Phillip to his outside. Astrology sits the trip and should pounce 2nd off the layoff and I love the cutback.

1/2,4,5,7/2,3,4,5,7 Super

Keeneland Saturday:

Ben Ali: Exhi (don't like horses coming off layoffs going 9f's but he towers) - Dean's Kitten

Giants Causeway: Rose Catherine should crush. So much speed in here and comes back against fillies. should be 2/5.

Lexington: Casper's Touch - Silver Medallion - Prime Cut. Casper's Touch's record is looks worse than it should be. He had tons of trouble in his last two races @ GP and finally he was able to overcome the rail last time out. McPeek is on fire. Love the outside post. Hopefully he'll be 3rd choice. Expect 3/1 or 7/2.

Race 10: To end the late pick 4, Tale of the Dance should be tough second off the layoff. Numbers tower. good works at Kee. little gap in works from March to Apr. And for that I will throw in the Chad Brown firster Special Action. Owner/Trainer combo have been on fire, especially at GP. He can crack with firsters and has a decent & consistent worktab.

$1 pick 4 = $6 for an extra $6, throw in Dean's Kitten in the first leg in case Exhi is short. I'll have an extra saver in the 2nd leg with Stormy Publisher & Wild About Marie in case Rose Catherine falter's again. = $36 for a $1. %.50 cent saver = $18.

Saturday Hollywood Gold Rush Program.

Race 2: Love Ultra Blend - Lady Railrider for the exacta

Race 3: Single Jewel. Firster for Ascanio could be live. Check the tote. Silencio Gato could also be live but I hate the rail. Great works in tow.

Race 4: Amazombie should be tough. His synth form is ok. Quick Enough will get pushed from the outside horses. Could be ripe for an upset here. I'll go with Mobilized, Scofield Barracks & Leaving New York.

Race 5: Master Chef's numbers tower. Not much in here to beat. Liberal Arts will keep the pressure on from the outside.

Race 7: 3/4,6

Race 8: Miles Rules - Warren's Flyer - Emily Pearl exb

Race 9: Offlee Wild Boys - Chiloquin

Race 10: Butterfly Beach - Good works for debut. Not much in the horses that have run. Watch the tote if live.

Good luck all.

HEY BLOGGERS COME DOWN FROM YOUR CLOUDS AND GIVE ME YOUR OPINION.WHAT WAS THE TOUGHEST PREP RACE THIS YEAR AS FAR AS THE QUALITY OF THE FIELD, ALL ANSWERS ARE WELCOMED.PS  THERE ARE NO FIGURES FOR FIELD QUALITY IT IS ENTIRELY YOUR CALL.

Jason,

Christine Daae returns to GP going 7f's tomorrow. 5/2 ML. Your thoughts?

NO MO MO

Yes,that's what Draynay does best,backpeddles. I agree PrePeg was the best and hopefully he will be able to continue his career.

Rock: I saw that. She is training very well and I think she's going to have a nice year. Never found out what exactly happened with her, but she is extremely fast.

Carlos, I know he will not be a rabbit. I was joking.

Jayjay, if everyone posted as many bets with as many combinations of horse's, we could all claim we won every excata of the prep season. Funny thing is though, you say you are betting tri's and supers, and then all of the sudden you have an ex and you won.... I need to get some new boots for this crap that is piling up! The Bluegrass for example, you only had Brilliant Speed in 1 of your .50 cent tri picks, but yet you won on an exacta. Unless you boxed it, which by the way you handicap is doubtful, you are full of it. Hell, from all of the money you supposedly have won, I am suprised you are not in the turf club or on Millionaire's Row.

Billy: It's pretty laughable. Just take him with a grain of salt and chuckle.

I agree Jason, I'm afraid she'll get bet down heavily tomorrow. I thought they kinda rushed her after that minor stake at Monmouth where she ran against older breaking from the rail.

Love the 7 hole for her tomorrow. If she stays above 8/5 I'll throw it down on her.

Won't post my ticket but--if you want a short priced (2nd choice on morning line but may go fav)

6 Miss Lulu Belle (NY) 4/F L D Carr 122 3/1

8th race Finger Lakes Fri

moving from Syn to dirt--any track condition will find her in front even 8-5 is fair price 3-1 is a bonus if you get it

Not as exciting as picking a stakes winner--but the person that called me out goes only wants glory -I like to cash---again that is why I would never post a winning ticket--I cash them.

Triple and Exacta Boxes with:

Dialed In; Mucho Macho Man; Pants On Fire and Nehro.

Look out for Harlan's Ruby at a price today at Keeneland. 2nd last out to Summer Soiree, 12-1 M/L odds coming from McPeek barn. You have to try to beat Winter Memories and New Normal who are coming off long layoff, but New Normal had a great work last week at Keeneland. Smart Sting, another I liked, scrathed. Ruthenia is 6-1, and undefeated, but also has long layoff. Recency win's out!

Sniper,

I can see why she would get bet down with W. Ward as the trainer. People just jump on that, especially at a track like that. Dennis Carr. Used to love betting him on speed horses when he was riding in the Bay Area.

My condolences to the Jess Jackson family. Its a shame he won't be able to see Rachel Alexandra's kids on the racetrack. Although I didn't see eye to eye with a lot of his decisions, if he never bought Rachel, she wouldn't have had the campaign that he set her on in her 3 year old season which was outstanding.

Who's going to the Derby this year and where are you sitting?  Ted from LA will be holding court in the 3rd floor clubhouse.  What say you, mz?  Ranagulzion, thanks for the information.

Quick tosses for me are the Turf/synthetics type horses like Brilliant Speed,Master of Hounds,Animal Kingdom,etc... there's a reason why they prepped on those surfaces and not on dirt.Then again,if it's an "off" track Brilliant Speed might take to it...

On another note:  So glad the MLB took over the daily operations of my beloved Dodgers from the embarrassing situation the McCourts had them in,here's hoping they pack their $@#t and head back to Boston to run the parking lots they're accustomed to.Sad....Glad!

Carlos,

Agree with some of your thoughts on your angle. I think a sloppy track is the last thing we're missing on the derby trail.

I'm a huge Giants fan, but haven't heard much if anything happened when the dodgers were in SF last week. Also, any word on finding those two "dodger fans" that put stow in a coma?

Sad day for horse racing. My condolences go out to the family of Jess Jackson. Regardless of what people thought of him, he was a great sportsman and he put the sport of horse racing ahead of the investment of horse racing. He brought back Curlin at age 4, a reigning HOTY and champion 3 year old colt, because Jess loved the sport and wanted the fans to be able to watch Curlin for another year. In this day and age, I can't imagine anyone else leaving 40+ million on the table to have your horse race another year. He also put Rachel Alexandra through a campaign at age 3 that I and all fans of horse racing will never forget. This is very sad news and I am thankful for the contributions Mr. Jackson has made to the sport. You don't see many owners that are true "fans of the game" and want to own horses to race horses. He truly was and he will be missed.  

Billy : Just because you can't pick a winner, you don't have to hate lol.  That's how I play and have been playing.  I really could care less if you believe it or not. You really should consider posting some opinion of your own and stop riding people's posts lol.  Or better yet, how about you posts your bets before the race ?  How's that working out for you ?  Picked any winners lately ?

If I have to question someone, I would probably question Jason's winnings.  He's very well known for changing his bets at the last minute (remember First Dude).  I still don't believe he hit that Nehro tri, he most likely changed his bets at the last minute and just too embarrassed to admit it.  Pretty soon he'll have to sell my gift to Jax just to make a bet. LOL

Ted: me, my Hat, my two friends, and the rest of the (Bus) Tour Group will be in what I understand is Clubhouse steerage: First Floor Grandstand, 125 - 128.

As far as I understand, me (and my hangers-on) and Jean from Chicago are supposed to get to Gate 17 and hopefully find you with signs.

With the (Bus - gawdforbid but I had no choice) Tour, we will also be at the Oaks (I like the fillies this year more than the colts anyways) on Friday and I will attempt to wander around to find "Gate 17" hoping it will not be the equivalent of "Area 51".

When I get to Gate 17 on Derby Day, I will be in your hands -- but only metaphorically speaking.

Also, I wish to change my predictions:

Dialed In (now spelled correctly)

Master of Hounds

Soldat

Brilliant Speed (nice Cdn family)

Remember, my choices usually finish 4th, 8th, 9th and 13th.  Can I bet on these placings and make money?

Tough beat Dray. That was a wierd ride early on.

Let's throw as many numbers as possible out there, in as many combinations as possible, and after the results of the race beat our chests and say how much money we won, even though none of those combinations were actually right and the bets that we put forth cost thousands of actual dollars to play.

i.e.--Im playing a 50 cent superfecta 1,2,3/1,2.3.4,5,6/1,2, 3,4,5,6,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.

Resuts of the race: 2 (who was the favorite),10,6,1.

I had the exacta, tri, and super!!! Yes!! I'm the best!!!

Who am I? Three guesses.

Ted from LA;

I'll be in a Infield Turf Suite.  Don't know if I'll have access to your court in the 3rd floor Clubhouse.

Any bloggers attending could meet in the paddock in front of Aristides at a predetermined time.  

Any other suggestions?

R.I.P. Jess.

Glad to see Soldat's back in form, that was a nice workout.  Still have to wait to see how the weather will play into the race but Soldat looks solid.

Thanks for posting your bet Draynay, funny how it works huh?  The one time you post your bets BEFORE the race...maybe you shouldn't post anymore and then come back the next day and post pictures of winning tickets. LOL

i.e.--Im playing a 50 cent superfecta 1,2,3/1,2.3.4,5,6/1,2, 3,4,5,6,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.

Resuts of the race: 2 (who was the favorite),10,6,1.

I had the exacta, tri, and super!!! Yes!! I'm the best!!!

Who am I? Three guesses.

jshandler 21 Apr 2011 2:34 PM

Can't be draynay because although he always picks chalk when he does they lose.

draynay bets all the horses in a race, takes pictures of all the tickets, goes back to the window and cancels every one but the favorite, then posts pictures of the ticket he cancelled on the horse who actually won.

Take T-Descent and Zazu right back in the Oaks.  In fact, I think Zazu may win the Oaks.

Hey Jason: are you trying to be funny?  

Considering:

A) no one can figure out whathehell is happening this year, and

B) the Cdn$ is currently more than the US$

maybe I should actually follow through on your bet.

On the other hand, also considering my history, will this be the first year in which NO HORSE finished the race?  (And I don't want anything bad to happen -- maybe 15 of the horses do a Quality Road and the other 5 do a Life At Ten.)

Save Jaycito for the Belmont.  Off to Hollywood Park.

Jayjay, must be lovely in your betting fantasy land. Come up with my own opinion? I just did. My opinion is that you are making up hitting those tickets. It is ok buddy. You can try to look cool on the blog and say you hit tickets, but you have to be losing money, b/c you "supposedly" are betting about $400 a race on the tickets you post. Give it a rest. Take notes from your boy The ROCK. HE posts the names, the analysis etc of the horse's he likes. You just post a bunch of numbers and hope one comes in so you can SAY that you won. I do fine at the track. How about you come on the Keeneland live blog today and post some picks. I posted a pick above, and why I like the horse, but I could be like you.

6,7/1,4,6,7,11,12/1,2,4,6,7,8,11,12

4,7/1,4,6,7,11/1,2,4,6,7,8,12,13

4,12/1,4,6,7,12/all

50c tri

blah blah blah  look everyone, I had the 8 in the show spot on one of my bets, but he looked good in the post parade, so i bet a 5$ exacta on 8,12 and I hit it. I am the man! I would of hit the other race, but I was looking at the wrong numbers? SURE you were.

Ted, I will be at Oaks and Derby. Oaks, have box again on the finish line in 116. Derby, 314 Clubhouse

No mz. I was pretending to be a certain blogger who seems to hit an awful lot of tris, supers, pick 4, and pick 6s. It's actually pretty amusing.

Like a couple of 1ster's coming up at Kee. The 7 Muir Woods in race 5. Paceless race. Rosey might get loose at 13-1. Has been working nicely. I singled the 5 Farmer's Club in race 6 @ Kee with Leparoux & Sheppard. Light tab, but there's not much here and I think they're flying under the radar. Love firsters when there isn't much they're going against in the race.

Jayjay, pick 1 horse for the Jerome and Lexington. Just 1. Who do you pick?

Yeah, yeah, got it the first time, Jason (but I was trying to avoid using the "D" word).

To Householder: Joyful Victory and Zazu (as I pontificated a la Draynay at the beginning of the year:  Tapits!)

(Also a la Draynay, forget that I also touted the Candy Rides, OK?)

Really, though, I thought Turbulent (crappy spelling) Descent was sticking to shorter routes than the Oaks.

Take T-Descent and Zazu right back in the Oaks.  In fact, I think Zazu may win the Oaks.

Householder 21 Apr 2011 2:55 PM

Householder,

According to her Trainer Turbulent Descent is not running in the Oaks.

Reminds me of a guy at work who would constantly talk about his luck at Monmouth Park in the summer. He seemed to win $1500 or $1200 every time he went to the track. We used to joke that with luck like that, we could not understand why he wouldn't just quit his day job.

Nice pick 3 at Keeland draynay. Why is it when you post BEFORE a race you always lose but when you post AFTER the race you win? I think draynot is onto you big time!!

draynay bets all the horses in a race, takes pictures of all the tickets, goes back to the window and cancels every one but the favorite, then posts pictures of the ticket he cancelled on the horse who actually won.

draynot 21 Apr 2011 2:52 PM

mz: It's not Dray. Whether or not you think he is a good handicapper, at least Dray posts his picks with confidence. He doesnt throw out 30 combinations and hope one sticks. Think harder, you can figure this one out.

1 for 1 on the pick 3. 8/5 though. Muir Woods broke a step slow. Got the lead and tired late to finish 5th but the winner was way much the best. McPeek continues to roll. Very formful today at Kee.

6-1 first flash on the Sheppard firster. Holding his m/l. Good sign to me.

Just heard that Smart Sting is out of the feature. Really liked that one today.

Jason: In the immortal words of Monty Python: "my Brain hurts!".  Too much thinking on the eve of a long holiday causes short circuits and I have enough trouble figuring out "exacta", "trifecta", "box" and "tax payment" -- April 30th here.

I'm gonna go try on my Hat again.

The Rock, Sanchez has been burning up the track. Look at the 2 in the 6th at Keeneland with your Lep/Shep/Straw horse

rock, go on the keeneland live blog during the race. Some good insight on the raceday blog from PLONK!

mz, same plan for Oaks Day.  You can do better with your seating. Particularly on Oaks Day. Sell those and buy up to 3rd floor or higher. Ted from LA hates metaphores.

I agree Billy. Its just that horse has burned me a couple of times. I'm scarred. And watch today he'll come through when I don't have him.

look Jayjay, I posted my picks, the three horses I liked, and hit the first race I bet. If you look, I made a ridiculous bet in your honor.... just go to keeneland.com

JS HANDLER maybe I can get a response from you.What was the toughest prep race as far as field quality this year?

Bloggers I read your posts everyday,and you are all convinced that you have the answer to this years derby.I hate to say it but I have to convince myself,that all the bets I have cashed on derby day were all pure LUCK.

Rock, I was getting my head beat in by near misses all day and I STILL can't believe the 8 didn't get up but I made up for it all in the with my win bet on Winter Memories and my exacta box and Tri box with Dos Lunas and Parting Words.  I couldn't believe the odds on Dos Lunas ?  HE WAS IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP last year at Churchill and had blinkers off what was everyone thinking?  I can't believe I got 5 to 1 on Cash Advance at Gulfstream. I am still puzzled about the 1 horse in race 7 at Keeneland.  I just didn't see him as a closer did you ?

Dray is another guy that has never had a losing day at the track. He and Jayjay should be retired by now.

LOL, I'm so popular in you blog.  I'm not one for attention but this is kinda fun in a weird way.  I love the way the blog admin posts lol.  6 posts DEDICATED to me !!! HAHA

I had the superfecta in the BlueGrass picked out the night before, I told all my friends play 5-7-2-1...but the next day, I just had to read the form and the beyers and didn't bet it.  Can you believe that ???  It hurt so much that I can't pick a winner anymore.  And don't ask me about Nehro, please don't...

Billy : Don't pop a vein lol. You're so uptight man.  Let's say I didn't hit the exacta like you claim, what does it do for ya ?  Will it make your year ?  "Oh yeah, I proved that JayJay didn't hit the exacta!!!  I'm the best!!!  Let me go to the millionaire's row and celebrate, he got told!!  Where's my man Draynay?!?!  We won Dray, we won!!"  That about sum it up ? LOL

Anyone making a ridiculous bet because they're so desperate to prove a BLOGGER wrong...well, there's something majorly wrong there.

Draynay : LOL

WRONG !  I lost today but it could have been a whole lot worse.  Lol.

Keeneland blog ??  Geez man, seriously, get a life.  Don't get too carried away with my posts lol.  I don't want you hurting yourself reading my posts!!  I remember a term in chats back in the 90s..."I own you guys!" LOL, this is like AOL all over again HAHA

You also said you posted your picks above, I don't see any posts of what you're betting and how much ??  

You tell me to go to keeneland.com, for what ?? LOL  dude, trying to be draynay is worse than just hanging on his coattail...hmm, maybe not.

Ohhh, I see what you're talking about now...this one :

" Look out for Harlan's Ruby at a price today at Keeneland. 2nd last out to Summer Soiree, 12-1 M/L odds coming from McPeek barn. You have to try to beat Winter Memories and New Normal who are coming off long layoff, but New Normal had a great work last week at Keeneland. Smart Sting, another I liked, scrathed. Ruthenia is 6-1, and undefeated, but also has long layoff. Recency win's out!

Billy's Empire 21 Apr 2011 11:47 AM "

So I did what you told me, went to Keeneland.com and saw the results and I was laughing so loud, the neighbors had to check on me :

4 (Winter Memories) won (WOOHOO for Billy) - paid 3.80

Harlan's Ruby - finished 6th

New Normal - finished 8th

Ruthenia - finished last.

Can you please confirm this is exactly what you were talking about ?

I'm looking at Shackleford. He will be forwardly placed. He may not have the turn of foot many look for, but I think he may be able grind his way for a minor prize if not the win spot. He looked sharp in his last, IMHO. Hopefully he can move forward off of that.

Dray

Nice, not, Pick 3 at Keeneland.

Thanks to the Rock about the info about Christine Daae running at Gulfstream on 4/22. I personally think she has favored Johnny V as her jockey as he rode her on her maiden victory when Bravo was injured.

Any news about Awesome Feather; she was the real deal. She could have beaten any of these boys in the Derby. Last I heard she was training under tack at Palm Meadows.

Co-owner George Bolton places great faith in trainer Bob Baffert’s view of a potential race, and he expressed doubt on Thursday that the Racing Hall of Fame trainer will want to take aim at the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) with The Factor.

Baffert referred to The Factor as probable for the Derby in a message to the Louisville Courier-Journal earlier this week. The War Front colt arrived at Churchill Downs on Tuesday after finishing seventh as the 4-to-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Baffert is far from reluctant to change his mind, and Bolton is not convinced that The Factor will proceed to the Derby.

“He’s in Kentucky but I doubt Bob runs him,” said Bolton, who has consistently maintained that the colt would only target the Derby if he is deemed to be competitive..

Also

Jockey Corey Nakatani will stick with the up-and-coming Nehro in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and surrender the mount on Comma to the Top

[Source thoroughbred times]

Santiva, 25-1 last week, is now 40-1 following the Blue Grass.[DRF.com]

To big of a price on that horse

Big payout this year..

If Mo wins like Mo usually wins, this will be a really weird season!  I can see us all with hands on hips looking at each other in a very perplexing manner!  I would love it, but it would still be, "what the heck…..?"

No, BETTER YET, STAY THIRSTY!!!

AFLEETALEXFOREVER your blog was the most intelligent and interesting blog on here, very knowledgeable, thougrouly enjoyable, agree with you on Dailed In, last 1/8 13 an change, very questionable,

I think it is very sad that so many people have already written this years crop of 3 year olds off

and''It,s Only April''.And that is only because the Derby trials have

not turned out the way they wanted

it to be.I think there are a lot of promising 3 year olds out there that will prove there worth before the year is out.

Ted from LA,

You had me cracking up and rushing to my dictionary. You are seriously funny. (Cornucopia)  One definition - An overflowing store; an abundance. Jason is the writer here and is more equipped to do a book. He has a show that focuses on picking winners.

Ranagulzion,

Dialed In:

The first set of comments I submitted about the above colt were a mix of positives and negatives. This was before his Holy Bull victory as I did not see his maiden race. The first and possibly only positive was the fact that his dam was lightly rqaced. His historic negatives were far greater than the positives. (a)  He was sired by son of A P Indy and sons of the great stallion have not distinguished themselves in the Triple Crown races. They are still on ‘Zero” (b) His dam was sired by Storm Cat who up to 2006 had a broodmare band of 281 that had produced 554 runners. None of these runners have won a TC race. I did not like Sydney’s Candy in the derby because of this fact in spite of his brilliance. (c)) His dam was purchased for $1.3M. She represents another miserable failure produced by a broodmare that earned over $1M who was bred to Storm Cat. Miss Doolittle belong to a category of mares that have a derby jinx..

My first sight of Dialed In was in the HB. His awkward galloping action stood out like a sore thumb. He used his late closing speed to overtake a group of colts who were one pace in the last furlong. His victory was impressive and so too the size of his large neck. That is not the size neck you want to see on a router. If you want to see the perfect neck for a router, review the video of the SA Derby and take a close look at the winner Midnight Interlude in the winner enclosure. He has a neck like a swan and a rear end loaded with power. HE HAS THE Ideal configuration for a derby horse. Horses that close from that far back do not need that extra weight to carry. In addition to the extra weight he has this laborious action. He was dead tire after the FL Derby where he had only one horse to pass in the stretch and he took all day and only got by when that horse swerved. In all his victories the leaders were either backing up or one pace. He was the only genuine closer in those races. He will not be the only colt closing in the derby but he will be the one closing from farthest back. There are a number of clots that have high cruising speed and will accelerate out of strong fractions. With the suspect 10F pedigree of most of the colts that made the cut, no one is going to run 1:10 for the 1st 6F. Dialed In is therefore going to be a victim of a slow derby pace as the 2011 crop will not be running with the usual dose of steroids.

Dialed has not done anything to set himself apart from the rest:

(a) Has he recorded faster times? No!

(b) Did he blow away the competition while in hand? No!

(c) Did he defeat any opponent that was not backing up? No!

Let’s compare Dialed In to Midnight Interlude.  In Dialed in last race he struggled to defeat the winner of a NW2 allowance race. Midnight Interlude on the other hand came out of a maiden race to defeat a G1 & Glll winner who won six of his 13 starts. Now, which achievement is more significant? I cannot see how Dialed In is so high on everybody’s list. Is he going to out close a closer that has beaten better company?  He will need more than large lungs and heart passed on to exceptional horses like Secretariat via inbreeding to Princequillo to win. Try a miracle!

For all you that still believe Uncle Mo will run and win the Kentucky Derby in 15 days - then check out these recent headlines..."Uncle Mo Still Improving..."..."Uncle Mo Making Progress..."..."Pletcher Keeping An Eye On Uncle Mo...".

Is that what you want to hang your hopes on?

Six horse super box will cost $360,There are only 7 or 8 that really seem to figure. Hit that and take the summer off.

Dray,

The way I deal with maiden races, I figure every horse can change the way they run at anytime. Especially after they've had a couple of starts. Reason being is because they haven't come up with a formula for success yet. So even if a horse speeds and fades first time out, a lot of people suspect that he/she will do the same thing next time out. Next thing you know the horse is rating and wins for fun. But those maiden races during the middle of the card were up in the air. I went for 1ster's in both as top choices thinking the fields were evenly matched & the top horses weren't of much value. But I played light, so I only suffered minor scrapes.

Terri Z - My pleasure.

Illum,

Regarding the preps, I don't think you can really say one was stronger than the other. You're really walking a tight rope with making that decision. This year is very unique. I think come home times and the toughest preps should be thrown by the way side. It seems as though all of these horses are slow. I'd advise looking for a horse that's progressing forward then backwards unless they had 1 race with an excuse. If a horse keeps finding himself into trouble, I would only expect more in the derby. Just my 2 cents.

Did anyone else notice that Winter Memories came home the last 1/8th in under 11.50 seconds ?  Is it me or does anyone else believe Ten Lil Indians could give Angel's Share a fight in the 3rd at Keeneland?

"HANK"

Why don't you knock it off? Some of us know WHO YOU REALLY ARE!

It's funny how one posting of your $10 P3s and missing 2 out of 3 can humble you.

No longer any attitude but begging for someone else to think the same way...LOL

Coldfacts,

I read on another blog where you said that you were backing Master of Hounds and prepared to go down with the RAN sinking ship if that colt failed to fire on dirt in the Derby (I'm paraphrasing your comment).  Now you are backing an inexperienced colt, Midnight Interlude, that has no seasoning, having not raced as a 2YO, to win the Derby, and touting him over a battle-tested Dialed In, that has won three out of four starts?  At this point I'd have to say that you've jumped from a sinking ship to clutch at a straw like a drowning man.  Dialed In will win the Kentucky Derby and again confound your analysis, like he did in the Florida Derby.  I look forward to your post race comments.

JAYJAY

Yeah,now you hear nothing regarding "Triple Crown winner" for Mo. Dray is trying to ignore he boasted this back in Jan. lol

Not uncommon for turf horses, Dray

Ranagulzion....the facts man goes on facts....just the wrong ones...so what if no starts as a 2 yr old....lets leave this fact out....the horse has a swan neck!  who better than a turkey......

Footlick, off a 5 month layoff?

Jayjay, Ten lil Indians won thank you very much.  It's called picking a winner try it sometime.

....No Reason To "Abandon Ship" on Uncle Mo,....You Gotta Have Faith People  !! ,....In Addition ,..My "Derby Winner" From Early On Has Been Dialed In ,..Make Up Your Mind During The Post Parade ,....

Dray- yes off a 5 month layoff and more.  It isn't a dirt race.  Turf closers close in 11 and change routinely.  She is a classy filly.  It was a nice race.

I have to mention and face the music that I not only picked a loser (posted) but a chalk loser --although I did very well at Finger Lakes for the day--if he was 50-1 and lost this would not be posted--sad pick--I never tout chalk but that's life.

KY VET,

Its okay to refer to the "facts man" by his moniker, Coldfacts.  Hes a good sport and gives as much as he gets.  

Anyway, I found your turkey comment very funny ...I wonder how much ground Midnight Interlude will be "gobble gobbling" up in the Derby (LOL).

Footlick, not at Keeneland.  Under 11.50 at Keeneland is flying and not done very often.

Master Of Hounds

RACE RECORD

26 Mar  Meydan                    2nd UAE Derby-Gr.2, 1 3/16m (beaten a nose by Khawlah)

06 Nov Churchill Downs      

6th BC Juvenile Turf-Gr.2, 1m (beaten 3¼ lengths by Pluck)

23 Oct Doncaster                 3rd Racing Post Trophy-Gr.1, 1m (beaten 2 ¾ lengths by

Casamento)

11 Jul Tipperary                  1st Maiden, 7f. (by 6 lengths)

26 Jun Curragh                     2nd Maiden, 7f. (beaten 2 ½ lengths by subsequent Group 1

winner Roderic O’Connor)

10 Jun Leopardstown             2nd Maiden, 7f. (beaten a short-head by Dunboyne Express who

won the Anglesey Stakes-Gr.3 by 8 lengths on his next start).

23 May Curragh                     5th Maiden, 6f. (beaten 4 lengths by Moonlit Garden)

With the exception of the UAE Derby which is run on Tapeta, all his starts were on Turf.

Dray- I almost gave you that one, then I watched the "beast" run.  Now I can't believe you again.

Coldacts!  I can't criticize you master of hounds pick....good horse!  of course he has that giraffe neck.....

Lol.... I don't blame you Footlick that was just flat ugly.

Makes me wonder if Pletcher is babying these young horses too much.

Back from vacation!  Congrats to Jersey Tom for his Hill Top Award!  

Does the whole Pletcher barn have the stomach bug?  First Uncle Moe, then Brethren and now Cal Nation?

Borel to ride Stay Thirsty?

T-Descent not going in the Oaks!  Perhaps Zazu can "run into" Baffert's filly Plum Pretty.  She's bred pretty well...Medaglia D Oro out of an A.P. Indy mare.  Pretty interesting to say the least with her romp in New Mexico.