Is 3-Year-Old Championship at Stake in Belmont?

When Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom meets Preakness winner Shackleford in the Belmont, there is a good chance that the 3-year-old championship will be at stake. If one of them should win, history has shown that they almost certainly will go on to take divisional honors.

Since the Eclipse Awards began in 1971, there have been 10 occasions when two different horses won the Derby and Preakness, and then one of them came back to win the Belmont. Of those, eight have gone on to win the 3-year-old championship. The two instances when it did not happen were:

1972: Riva Ridge won the Derby and Belmont (in addition to the Blue Grass and Hollywood Derby) but lost out on divisional honors to Key to the Mint, who won the Derby Trial, Withers, Travers, Whitney, Woodward, and Brooklyn Handicap.

1994: Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont (in addition to the Kentucky Cup Classic, El Camino Real Derby, and San Rafael), but lost out on the championship to Holy Bull, who won the Hutcheson, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Met Mile, Travers, Haskell, Woodward, and Dwyer.

Of course, the other scenario is if a horse other than Animal Kingdom or Shackleford wins the Belmont. Since 1971, there have been 15 occasions when three different horses won the three legs of the Triple Crown. Of those 15, there have been four times when the eventual 3-year-old champion did not win one of the Triple Crown races:

1975: Wajima--He didn't make his first start of the season until late June when running second in the Dwyer, but went on to win four grade I races-the Monmouth Invitational Handicap, Travers, Governor Stakes, and Marlboro Cup Handicap.

1983: Slew o' Gold--He was fourth in the Derby and second in the Belmont, but won the Wood Memorial and Peter Pan, and went on to take the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup against older horses.

1996: Skip Away--Finished 12th in the Derby and second in both the Preakness and Belmont, but previously won the Blue Grass and then scored the Ohio Derby, Haskell, Woodbine Million, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

2000: Tiznow--Didn't even break his maiden until May 31 of that year, but in a wide-open season went on to win the Affirmed Handicap, Super Derby, Goodwood, and Breeders' Cup Classic.

So, what are we to take away from both of these historical pieces of information? Well, first, if Animal Kingdom or Shackleford should win the Belmont, it is going to take a ridiculous second-half campaign by another 3-year-old to take away divisional honors, and given the parity amongst this group, it would probably have to end with a Breeders' Cup Classic victory.

Second, if a horse other than Animal Kingdom or Shackleford should win the Belmont, there is at least a decent chance that the eventual 3-year-old champion will not have won any of the three Triple Crown races. That means, the second half races become all that more important, including the Stephen Foster, Jim Dandy, Travers, Haskell, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Whitney, Woodward, BC Classic, and Clark.

131 Comments

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LAZMANNICK

Sounds like a three year old could win the Swaps, Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic, Goodwood and not even get mentioned.

02 Jun 2011 11:44 AM
Draynay

The Derby winner and Preakness winner did not do enough before these races to claim a title even with a win in the Belmont.  I admit should one of these winners win Belmont it will be tough to grab the title from them but there is still a lot of racing to go.  I don't believe Shack or Animal will win Belmont.  I believe Master and Nehro will fight it out for the honor.  And as much as it pains me I believe Master is the horse to beat at Belmont.

02 Jun 2011 11:51 AM
slee

Interesting article, thanks, and I hope the "spring" 3 year olds are all around for the summer and fall contests so we can see head to head competition with the 3 year olds who have been off the trail.

Wajima is a great example of a summer/fall racer, and one of my favorite horses of all time.  Raced lightly at 2, he was injured early in his 3 year old career and, as you say, came back for a great campaign.  He set at least 1 track record.  Also, in a head to head contest with that year's Derby winner, Foolish Pleasure, Wajima won.  He also managed to beat the fantastic Ancient Title.  Then, to round out his resume, he and the legend known as Forego raced 3 times with Wajima winning twice (and, yes, he was giving Forego a lot of weight, but Forego didn't lose very often in that 2nd of his Horse of the Year wins).

That extended campaign at several distances at multiple tracks against champions of different ages allowed for a wonderful comparison of talent within a great pool of horses.

02 Jun 2011 12:04 PM
Old Timer

Draynay, I sometimes have to scratch my head, dude.

"The Derby winner and Preakness winner did not do enough before these races to claim a title even with a win in the Belmont."

Here's the thing... who did anything more than Animal Kingdom or Shackelford??

One barely lost the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the other won the Spiral. Either one will be a deserving front runner if they win the Belmont.

Let me guess... Uncle Mo won the prestigious Timely Writer so he should be right in the thick of the voting!

02 Jun 2011 12:46 PM
robinm

In my opinion, so far no 3-yr old has claimed dominance in the division.   I don't think a win by either Shack or the Animal in the Belmont will cinch the title.  There is a lot of racing yet to do.  Especially, when you consider that Uncle Mo, potentially one of the best 3 yr olds, is currently out of training. Though I must say, I saw the clip of Uncle Mo in the paddock at Winstar and he doesn't look like a healthy horse to me.

02 Jun 2011 1:24 PM
Footlick

Laz- when will you learn........

02 Jun 2011 1:27 PM
JayJay

Draynay jumping off his horse already, or starting to make his 6 horse picks. LOL

02 Jun 2011 1:29 PM
JayJay

LAZ : How dare you question that, let's try to be objective here. :)

Draynay : Please stick with your picks until the Belmont race is over.  Ramon D will be riding one of my picks MMM.  How does that make you feel ?

I think AK will probably run much much better than his KD and Preakness.  He needs more ground and the Preakness was just a tad short for him.

02 Jun 2011 1:29 PM
Draynay

Old Timer you must be a Republican.  Did you not read the VERY NEXT LINE ?  "I admit should one of these winners win Belmont it would be tough to grab the title from them but there is still a lot of racing to go." Shackleford could win Belmont with Animal Kingdom winning the Travers and the Classic.  Animal Kingdom would then be the top 3 year old wouldn't he?  Are you new to the sport ?

02 Jun 2011 1:57 PM
LAZMANNICK

jayjay

Unfortunately none of them are eligible for the Mother Goose.

02 Jun 2011 2:05 PM
sniper1

Off the plane

It's early--maybe Mo will come back a bear (doubtful)AK has turf to try to add to his resume' so early pick Shackleford may run in Belmont but not sure--so?

Can't get form so I will not pick 8th @Belmont to challenge the master dray

BUT

Since I gave a very early selection for the BC Sprint or Mile with Noble's Promise---I will tout him @4-1 or 5-1 @ Churchill Saturday

Note Dray did not answer another challenge of mine #3 not met-cluck

02 Jun 2011 2:09 PM
Criminal Type

At this moment I find myself in the ridiculous situation of agreeing with Dray. I too think Master of Hounds is a serious threat in the Belmont. Dray may be in pain, but not me. I love his pedigree. Kingmambo over a Sadlers Wells mare...who wouldn't want some of that in their stable.

However, the agreement goes only so far. Nehro was being passed by Animal Kingdom with 70 or 80 yards to go in the Derby and along with Shackleford, falling rapidly behind. That was a 1.25 mile race. Now, We are going on to Belmont at 1.5 miles, What makes you think Nehro is going to do better at that distance ? Shackleford is a nice horse, but Animal Kingdom was closing on him in the Preakness because AK was just starting to roll. In my opinion, Nehro and Shackleford will finish well up the track next Saturday.

The horses who in my opinion can get 1.5 miles are Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, and The Dynaformer colt, Brilliant Speed. Everyone knows Dynaforners are slow to mature, so look for him to improve over the summer and fall. Also, remember MMM is really only two still. He will be on the muscle over the next few months as he matures into that gigantic frame.

Old Timer, Trust me, no one is going to confuse the Timely Writer with the Kentucky Derby. I believe Dray is correct in that assumtion that neither Animal Kingdom or Shackleford have done enough to earn three year old champion of 2011. Although both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford have performed well and won classic races, How, at this point in time could you pick one or the other for 3 yr old champion, I couldn't. The both have something to prove to ME at this point in time.

Regarding Uncle Mo..I am not going to disrespect the horse, I really like Mike Repole..But I fully expect a retirement announcement if he does not go back into training in the next 4 weeks. He has been at Winstar for a nearly a month and I have heard nothing regarding his health issues. Not a positive sign.

This is off topic, but for FFS, why don't they just retire I Want Revenge? He obviously is not the same horse as he was before he was injured.

02 Jun 2011 2:16 PM
Terry M.

Mucho Macho Man is younger than the rest of them. He could really come into his own this summer & fall. It ain't over til it's over! But I do think Shackleford and Animal Kingdom are very good young horses.

02 Jun 2011 3:18 PM
Stevebiscuit

A lot can happen between now and the Breeders Cup. If Animal Kingdom wins the Belmont that would put him in the lead for the 3 year old championship, but only temporarily. If Shackleford wins the Breeders Cup Classic he is the 3 year old champion. As prestigious as the Belmont is, beating the best older horses in the world will carry a lot more weight.

02 Jun 2011 3:39 PM
Old Timer

Draynay,

I was mostly just goofing around with you based on your past comments.

I do believe however that the three Classics should weigh very heavily in the voting for three year old champion. As noted in the article, it has happened that a horse win two out of three and be denied the title, but it is a rarity. I agree with you fully that "should one of these winners win Belmont it would be tough to grab the title from them but there is still a lot of racing to go."

As far as being new to the sport I saw Secretariat; the great Kelso (who won horse of the year as a three year old and never won a Classic); Arts and Letters; Buckpasser and Dr. Fager back in the day.

But calling me a Republican was a low blow. :)

02 Jun 2011 4:39 PM
sniper1

Settled in room

Horse for horse

AK (my pick over) against Nehro and Brilliant Speed (MP over) Master of Hounds anywhere in field---not that I love either-- but one seems obvious and the other Bri-Sp actually ran better than Hound did in the Derby if you watch closely

Betting Shackleford if he runs

As to HOY or 3YR OLD What if???

AK loses the Belmont then wins the 2 big turf races or 1 of-- in VA then goes on to win the Secretariat and Arlington Million? How would that stack up against the winners of Haskel and Traveler---a big if but then would/should be HOY being he won the KY Derby

Must mingle with people now in a industry where people are actually informed and knowledgeable not just in the US but the whole world--not a knock on most on this blog--just some

02 Jun 2011 4:42 PM
mz

Jason: “parody”?

Now that I am now really sensitive about how I word my comments because of Bob (damn you, Bob!), I really, really have no choice but to ask you: who are the 2011 crop of 3YO’s making fun of?  The guy who keeps telling us he knows everything and picks the winner every time?  The guys who keep arguing with the guy who always wins?   The guy who keeps telling us what # horse he’s betting in what # race without ever using horses’ names?  The guy who always WRITES IN CAPITALS?

Yup.  Lots of things to parody on the two-footed side.

....

I got to see Tiznow during my (famous) trip to Kentucky a few weeks ago.  Even though he broke my heart, finishing just that little bit ahead of Giant’s Causeway, I have to say he’s as beautiful in person (in horsieness?) as in “film”.

....

And finally, Jason, you really must think beyond the box.  We’re only talking about the 3YO COLT championship.  It may be that the 3YO champion this year will be a filly.  Winter Memories is back (although there is always an unfortunate bias against turf horses).  I still like Zazu and Joyful Victory.  I know you like Plum Pretty.  There are a slew of nice Cdn fillies this year too.

02 Jun 2011 4:45 PM
UncleStosh

Animal Kingdoms final time in the derby was comfortably inside the mark for a quality horse over the last 30 years(not Spectaculiar but faster than Spectacular Bid). He looks very tough to beat in the Belmont to me. I wouldn't stray to far away from the Nehro, Animal and Shack if you want to cash. Also, I keep seeing the strange analysis that Dialed In is a one turn closer. Nothing about his game suggests such a thing. He may be a one run closer but the Belmont will prove to be his best game. Remember, the Belmont is 2F longer than the Derby and 2.5 longer than the Preakness. That is an eternity. I only like MMM's chances if the race breaks down. He seems like a one pace type as opposed to having a great turn of foot(Birdstone?) So i don't get accuswed of picking 5 horses, let it be clear that i like the closer with first run to win, animal Kingdom and I will be making big exoitc wagers with the others underneath. I have hit the exotics hard the first two legs and hoping for one more. Also, i believe MMM is an outsider only worth a lugging 3rd or 4th place.

02 Jun 2011 4:53 PM
Man o' War

I, too, find myself agreeing with Dray.  I believe this crop of three-year-olds too evenly matched to crown either Animal Kingdom or Shackleford champion by virtue of victory in two of the Triple Crown races, though I believe either will have a serious leg-up on the competition should he win two legs of the series.  It may all be a moot point, as I look for Master of Hounds to take the Belmont anyway.

02 Jun 2011 4:59 PM
merlinmerry

"...given the parody amongst this group..."

This is really nitpicky - the definition of "parody" is "a humorously exaggerated imitation of (a writer, artist, or genre)."  I think that you mean "parity," defined as "The state or condition of being equal, esp. regarding status or pay."  

Please insert your own jokes or comparisions for each.

02 Jun 2011 5:30 PM
JerseyBoy

The forgotten horse is To Honor And Serve.

If he returns and wins either the Travers or the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic, he will be a top candidate.

02 Jun 2011 5:59 PM
Paula Higgins

ITA with JayJay that AK will be better in the Belmont and that he ran out of track at the Preakness. The only way AK or Shackleford don't win 3 year old honors, if one of them wins the Belmont, is if one of them also goes on to win the Breeders Cup. So, say AK wins the Derby and Belmont, and then Shackleford wins the Preakness and the Breeders Cup-then it gets interesting. I would also like to hear how Uncle Mo is doing. Any news Jason?

02 Jun 2011 9:58 PM
Draynay

Who did you pick to win the Aristides Jason ?  Let me give you the winner and why.  Capt. Candy Man has faced many of the toughest horses around but he is in a tough spot here.  The 1 and 2 horse are not going anywhere fast and that will leave the Capt. on the rail with all types of speed to deal with.  While he is doing that Here Comes Ben will be sitting back with Leparoux for a last second charge to the wire.  His first race back from the Breeders Cup was not bad at all and coming back off 3 solid works puts him on top for me. He was really tough in 2010 and I expect him to pick things right back up on Saturday.

02 Jun 2011 10:11 PM
thomas

i don't see shack winning the belmont because he's by forestry but then again i was reminded that summing was bred to be a miler and he had a field day with pleasant colony in the belmont. i dont see nehro winning because  of how he ran in the derby. he was ran down in the final 1/16  and to me it looked he doesn't want more distance. but the derby is the derby

02 Jun 2011 10:32 PM
Jason Shandler

Paula: Im going to WinStar on Tuesday to see Mo. I'm going to take photos and a video, and do an update later that day. I look forward to seeing him and reporting about his health.

02 Jun 2011 11:50 PM
Draynay

You're right Old Timer and I am sorry.  There is no reason for me to call you such a dirty word.  I take it back.

03 Jun 2011 12:28 AM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

Where is your pick for the 8th at Belmont on Saturday?

03 Jun 2011 12:46 AM
Bob from Boston

Now that I am now really sensitive about how I word my comments because of Bob (damn you, Bob!), I really, really have no choice but to ask you: who are the 2011 crop of 3YO’s making fun of?

You ended that proposition with a preposition, mz.

03 Jun 2011 12:56 AM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay…………If you’re interest here is my pick in the Aristides

This is a tough race because there are so many that have a chance.  After deliberation my pick is Noble’s Promise.  What I like about him are:

His versatility……he can stalk close enough to stick to a fast pace without getting into a speed dual and though he hung and actually lost a bit of ground in deep stretch in the last two, there were reasons.  His second last start was the G1 Malibu when he returned to Cali after running at CD.  He was outrun by Twirling Candy and Smiling Tiger in a 7F race in 1.19.70, this after tracking a half in 44.69.

In his last, the Churchill Downs, he made a nice move off a 45 half, was four wide in the stretch and did not loose ground though he lost two placings from 3rd to 5th,  this is spite of being leaned on and pushed wide by Apriority and then being slightly pin-balled when Aikenite ranged up outside of him.  He also might have been a little short as it was his first race in 4 ½ months.  Even so, he was gaining rapidly on Capt. Candyman Can, the early fading pace setter, and after going four wide still maintained his ground against both Here Comes Ben and Smiling Tiger, and ended up finishing 5th beaten by two noses and two half lengths.  He also ran out of the 10 post in his last and is in the more favorable 8 post today.

The final clinchers for me are:  he won the 6F Jimmy V here in 1.08.92 last November (his only start and a win at 6F), and is coming in off two serious works of 1.00.1b on May 21 (6 best of 39), and a bullet .59 on May 28 (best of 43).

03 Jun 2011 1:41 AM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

I don’t know how you can bet the 8th at Belmont on Saturday with confidence.  It’s a 25K maiden claimer at 6F on turf with 3 first time starters, another with one start and another with two starts.  The logical are:

The 3 horse Amirahy, a 4 year old filly with 10 lifetime starts, 9 of which were on turf and also which is the only 4 year old in the race, with the others all being 3 year olds.  It just missed in its last, leading to the wire where it lost by a 1/2L at 9-5 in a five horse race taken off the turf.

The 4 horse, Frothy Market is zero for thee LT, but two starts ago at GP closed strongly in a 5F turf dash run in 56.89.  It did close its final 8th in about 11.38 and the race was a MSW.  It’s trained by a red hot Chad Brown and ridden by top turf rider (also very hot) Javier Castellano.  

I also like the 9 horse, Houliana.  This one has had only on LT start, a MSW at Aqueduct back in Nov. when it showed early speed and then tired at the end in a mile race in 1.36.58.  She is trained by Christophe Clement and is by More Than Ready.  They even have hot apprentice Ryan Curatolo riding.  What I don’t like is a well bred horse coming out of a MSW, being away for 6 months and being dropped in for 25K, especially by a trainer that isn’t a claiming trainer.  This smells of wanting to get ride of.

Sorry, but this is race is a pass, but if I was betting I would go with these three in a box for the tri.  My only bet so far this weekend is the Aristides at CD.

03 Jun 2011 2:09 AM
GoldenBroom

Hoping Animal Kingdom wins by a wide margin. He's raced what...5 or 6 times now - all 1sts and 2nds? Doesn't seem like Mo or Premier Peg will be back in time or in shape to hit the summer classics hard. Go AK!

03 Jun 2011 9:03 AM
JayJay

LAZ : LOL or the Fleur De Lis.  I find it funny that most calls this a bunch of mediocre 3 yr olds but Jason seems to be suggesting that these horses would be competing in those races in the 2nd half of the year.  Some commented that they would even have a chance of winning those races.  I guess this year must suck for the boys then because if these "mediocre" colts can beat the older horses in the Whitney, JCGC, or the Classic, we really are doomed.  Oh wait, I think the top 4 older horses are from Cali, that must be it :)

Looking forward to hearing about UM's status as well.  And NO, I'm not trying to bolster my ego by wondering how he's doing.  Draynay pads my ego way more than enough.

03 Jun 2011 9:13 AM
Footlick

I hope Uncle Mo is improving.  Can't wait to hear.

03 Jun 2011 10:03 AM
Fran Loszynski

'NEW YORK, NEW YORK" IS BACK!!!It is a part of the Belmont and the song should always remain. Frank is back Yeeeeeeeah! My,Myyyyyy.

Shackleford (will be "Unbridled" and awesome)

Animal Kingdom

Master of Hounds

My picks.

03 Jun 2011 10:11 AM
Criminal Type

Jason, I am so glad you are going to Winstar to see Uncle Mo. Although I was never a big fan of the horse, I really like Mike Repole. He is an owner to be admired for the commitment he has put into the well being of his horses. That means a lot when you consider the number of horses who end up abandoned, misused, neglected and slaughtered. I really hope they find out whats wrong with Uncle Mo. I bet Mike Repole is sparing no expense to find out what ail's him.  Devil May Care and Lost in the Fog are sharp reminders of what CAN happen. Kudo's to Ahmed Zayat as well for finding a good home for Z Fortune.

It' really ticks me off when I read about people abusing or neglecting their horses. Like Ernie Paragallo.(SP) This is the guy who owned Unbridleds Song!

Here in Maryland authorities just seized 150 purebred Polish Arabians from an eastern Shore breeder. 13 had to be put down almost immediatly because they were in such bad shape. The rest are at farms connected with horse rescues through out the state. They will be rehabed and adopted out to people who can prove they will provide a good environment for the animals. Not just anyone. This is what should be happening in the TB industry.

03 Jun 2011 10:13 AM
Fran Loszynski

One more note:

What a great pic of Adeline Lynch 101 years young petting her Addie's Surprise who won. Always count on Bloodhorse for great and touching pics! Isn't horseracing grand!

03 Jun 2011 10:24 AM
thederbydream.com

Jason,

I agree with several above if Animal or Shack win the Belmont they have the edge but its a long year and our memories are very short in racing so there is plenty of time for someone to step up and do some good in the fall against older horses and claim the title. I am really leaning toward Nehro right now to muddle things up even more.

03 Jun 2011 10:41 AM
NASCAR PRO

I really do not have an opinion on WHO wins the 3yo championship,I cant bet on it.I think Nehro will finally get a good trip and win the Belmont.

03 Jun 2011 12:41 PM
calico cat

Maybe it's just me, but I like it when things are muddled. Better betting oportunities, more suspense, more room for surprises. I'm very much looking forward to the Belmont. I would love to see Animal Kingdom win it but if it turns out to be a great race, that will be good enough for me. As to end of year awards, I'm not even thinking about that yet. Way too early.

Jason,

Glad you're going to see Uncle Mo at WinStar. Pictures, video and your observations are greatly anticipated. While there, please say Hello to Tiznow for me. His dam, Cee's Song died earlier. What an outstanding broodmare she was.

RIP Cee's Song, you done good!

03 Jun 2011 12:55 PM
Smoking Baby

 I think Jason said it all when he said....

Well, first, if Animal Kingdom or Shackleford should win the Belmont, it is going to take a ridiculous second-half campaign by another 3-year-old to take away divisional honors,

 I don't think he's saying that the Eclipse is so much a foregone conclusion as much as he's saying exactly what he said... that "It's going to take a ridiculous second half campaign" by anyone else with designs on the award.

Can it be done?  Sure.

Will it be done?  I don't think I'd bet on it.

03 Jun 2011 1:03 PM
Susan from VA

As far as the Belmont goes, don't forget that the Belmont is Nick Zito's home track, and he has had some real upsets there.

03 Jun 2011 1:27 PM
LAZMANNICK

Jayjay

Seriously about the mediocre three year-old group.  The problem seems to be that not one of them can step up and dominate or even win two top races in a row.  They are taking turns and have been throughout the year.  This is okay if they are supported by high Beyer evidence, but they aren’t.  There were no 111 to 118 Beyers in the Preakness like we saw not that many years ago.

The older group is no different and it seems that every week a different one is getting all the praise.  It would be nice if Twirling Candy stepped up and dominated.  It would be nice if Tizway could stretch out and be as dominate beyond the mile.  It would be nice if First Dude continued to improve under Baffert.  What I find perplexing is how Watchmaker can call the 6 year old Crown of Thorns the top Handicap Horse when it has never won a G1 race and races on average two times each year and in winning its last, a G2, finally gained its first win since February 2008.  His next three, Sidney’s Candy, First Dude and Twirling Candy have but two G1 wins in 37 life time races and none as older horses, but at least they show some promise.

The three year old colts have to start taking over.  The most logical one in terms of getting 10F for the BCC is Animal Kingdom.  I have a feeling that Nehro isn’t a true 10F horse.  I’ve never been high on Shackleford for the 10F distance simply because of his running style and older horses would run at him early and not let him have his own way like he’s been getting lately.  MMM is still a mystery because of his propensity of losing shoes during a race and he is actually just turning three.  I like Astrology but have a feeling he’s a 9F horse.  Dialed In has had too many chances and just might benefit if they had a jockey change.  Toby’s Corner offers hope if he moves forward off his last.  THAS might be a 9F horse at best.  There are still others though like Maclean’s Music and Bind and of course Uncle Mo.  And I don’t think that if one of them staggers home in the 12F Belmont that they will necessarily be a top 10F horse.  Maybe if they win the race with a sharp effort, but not by out staggering the rest.  There is a lot of difference between the two distances and it is often much harder to win at 10F than it is at 12F.  Should be interesting.

03 Jun 2011 1:41 PM
Mike Relva

OLD TIMER

Enjoy your insight and comments,you should post more often. Unlike a few with inflated egos on here,your comments are on point.

03 Jun 2011 2:34 PM
Splits of 12

It's way to early to get caught up in the 3-year old champion hype. But for what it's worth, I think Animal Kingdom will be tough to deny in the Belmont. He's got impeccable stamina, and is always charging forward. His style is perfect for the big wide turns of The Belmont oval. He should get a great stalking trip and be ready to pounce in mid-stretch. I see Mucho Macho Man making a valiant dash in the last 200 yards only to lose by 1 and 1/2 lengths for the place. Flying fast for the show will be Ruler on Ice to fill in the trifecta at a hefty price. Sorry Shackleford fans, but I see him tiring badly in this race. I think he's a great horse but after three straight tough races, perhaps he bounces back to his FOY performance? Master of Hounds will be overbet, and so will Nehro. This will allow a horse like Brilliant Speed to go off at juicy odds, which in turn would make him an attractive exotics proposition. here is my trifecta special for the Belmont 1. AK with 2.MMM, ROI, BS, MOH with 3.MMM, ROI, BS, MOH, and the longest shot on the board  

03 Jun 2011 3:04 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I believe it's between Shack

and AK.

03 Jun 2011 7:51 PM
skyfire

Hay, Jason! It is so exciting that the cause of Mo's illness was diagnosed.  Frankly, this is the first news to get my interest since he was withdrawn.    I hope that Uncle Mo is getting better, because if he is back as before, no other his age can get close to  him!!  I am sure he won't start unless Pletcher knows that he is the same colt.  They won't have a race deadline to meet this time.

I am wondering if anyone is sitting on him yet, or if he is turned out  (AM or PM?).

P.S,:  I can't resist asking:   How about a pic of amazing sire Distorted Humor if possible?  (This is who I would pick as the next mate for RA and Z)

Tiznow is a doll - very sweet horse.

Have fun, lucky guy!!

03 Jun 2011 9:45 PM
JayJay

Yes LAZ, I kind of agree the fact that these are mediocre horses and that the top older horses are also pretty much the same hence my comment that we really are doomed.  I have made 3 different picks in the 3 TC races for that reason.  I was never a believer of TC, or SC or CoT really.  I was surprised when CoT won that race against TC honestly.  I was more impressed with FD's recent change of style.  If a gun was put to my head, I would probably play Giant Oak whenever he runs more than anyone, well maybe Setsuko.  

As for the colts, I'm looking at AK to continue to run and get better.  The only negative thing is that he will probably be a tired horse after the Belmont so I don't know when we'll see him again after that.  If he wins the Belmont, they'll probably go with the Travers and the JCGC to clinch the championship.  I guess they can go to the Classic for HOTY contention.  I'm also looking at MMM to improve when he turns 3.

There are a lot of other horses that hit the board in the prep races that we have yet to see.  Are these late bloomers ?  I'm hoping so, but finding a standout this year, AK has been pretty consistent.  I think if he hits the board in the Belmont and no one dominates the 2nd half, AK wins the championship.

Splits of 12 : I'll probably play the same bets as you have posted.  I don't know about ROI but hey, just the initials looks good lol.  He definitely will give a good return on my investment if he hits the board.  The only difference is I will most likely have MMM on top and probably add Shack at the bottom.  I'd have to wait and see how Shack looks like on game day to see where I will place him on my bets.

03 Jun 2011 10:24 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Noticed Dutrow says "he's good for racing". Guess you're not the only one in denial.

03 Jun 2011 11:08 PM
Paula Higgins

Thanks Jason for looking in on Uncle Mo. I really have a huge soft spot for him and have been quite worried. It appears they have a diagnosis now and that he is doing better. He sounds like he is getting state of the art vet. care. I know Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher will make the best decisions for him in the future.

04 Jun 2011 12:18 AM
sniper1

OK  looking at a form now and THE GREAT DRAY time of posting on this blog he just made a blind pick of a race (8th Bel Sat) before he even saw the entries--only a m-r-n would bet any serious amount of money on this race.

The probable favorite I would guess @ about 7-5 is Frothy Market who must have worked very well to get that price in a 2yr in training sale with his bloodlines. As mentioned by Laz (and I will repeat him a few times on this blog today but he is also jumping on a horse I have touted repeatedly in the past but is eloquent and accurate in his comments so why not?) I also while thinking he very much might win is a trap. Amirahy is my "very weak". pick as well. I would also use the Clement drop down as well. IF I had a gun to my head my big $14.40 would be $8.40 if they had $0.50 tri's because that is all this race is worth-- bet would be 3-4-9 with 3-4-9 with 1-3-4-9 using the Contessa firster from the rail Tattoo Me. Throwing out the beautifully turf bred Asmusson horse the Dutrow trained under a different name MR---Why even bother going on this is a pass race unless you have a big edge on someone knowing a horse is working really well. Pass race

Now to a real race which since I have made a number of posts about Noble Promise this is a time where either he will show up or I can discount him. I, saw him getting squeezed in his last race but unlike Laz's post didn't know who did it to him---and also posted I had  Noble Promise in a $10 exactor box with the 2nd & 3rd (Apriority & Ibboyee) on my disasters betting Derby Day (Maybe if I had Bet Nethro to place but we can't all make major scores like that) What Laz didn't mention was if Smiling Tiger had found a seam he would have won clearly-Jock was grabbing hard leather from the 5/16 pole to almost the finish and was best that day if he ever found daylight.

A real bet--not a Dray blindly picking a race to cap that he didn't know who was entered. For what it is worth I will be betting "real money"

This is the day for Noble Promise to show up and live up to my touting him as my BC dark horse--he had his tightener-he drew well--and has never run a bad race because he is a trier and the reason I am high on him--did the best he could in the Ky Derby ran his best although when I saw the overseas race he never looked like a winner- he tried his best and probably never should have gone there.

NP ON TOP of

Atta Boy Roy

Cash Refund

CCCan

Here Comes Ben

And although I don't really like him Riley Tucker--10 or 20 dollar bet in tri's mine will be $1 (not $10 or $20 keys I am really betting not blowing smoke)

MY bet will be 50win and 50sh at 7-2 and 100w 100show if 5-1

This pains me to say this but a $5 ex box with Here Comes Ben because I can't get it out of my mind him running over my money with Big Drama last year and a minor 2 ex box with Atta Boy Roy because he ran well here and will be long--

those are only saver bets as is the show money---I only want to get close to even if I lose the win end.

(If I make the race if not I only have $157 in my betting account after getting it to $2400 I withdrew $1600 and have made about $600 of losing bets -$157 in various if betting on my acct tapping it out on Noble Promise)

Dray pick a real race next and stop being so chicken and a waste of time proving your incompetence—do it like a man. Step up and yell to the world I am what I am---contender for the best saddle stretcher fetcher in the world. Only horse people will catch that joke

04 Jun 2011 2:58 AM
Johnny

So Uncle Mo has gained 67lbs..

Yet the trainer could not tell the horse was not holding weight before the Derby and waited until the day before to scratch him.

What did they think, he was going to put that weight on in the 36 hrs leading up to the race??

Just saying..

Glad the horse is doing better though..

04 Jun 2011 8:50 AM
Bob from Boston

Dutrow is good for racing much like Sarah Palin is good for the Republican party.

04 Jun 2011 5:24 PM
Pedigree Ann

My second full Derby season, the Derby/Belmont winner, who had also won the Blue Grass and the Hollywood Derby (then 10f dirt), was denied the championship. A horse who had been mocked for winning the 'last prep' for each of Triple Crown races (Derby Trial, Preakness Prep Purse, Withers S) but ran in only the muddy Preakness, did. But, of course, Key to the Mint did win the Brooklyn H, Whitney, Travers, and Woodward. And he finished in front of Riva Ridge in both the Preakness and then in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he was second behind the older horse Autobiography.

04 Jun 2011 5:26 PM
-Keelerman

Lazmannick & Sniper1;

Congratulations on picking Noble's Promise in the Aristides!

04 Jun 2011 5:50 PM
Mike Relva

It's Twirling Candy's race to lose.

04 Jun 2011 7:32 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

What happened to here Comes Ben?  I had a huge win bet on Noble's Promise and of course me and a couple friends had a $10 box on the super.  After I take another luxurious trip to the Caribbean we’ve decided to pool our winnings a buy a yearling.  We’re going to name it in honor of you……Dray the Rookie.

04 Jun 2011 7:32 PM
JayJay

sniper1 : Great job on true handicapping, I hope you loaded up on NP as you said you will.  I bet you got that betting acct looking pretty again.

LAZ : Thanks for posting your Belmont 8th race pick and dead on with the 3 horse.  I think Draynay is still handicapping the race, I'm sure he'll post his winning picks on Monday.

Johnny : I understand your frustration with Repole about UM but the fact is, he did scratch him 2 days before the race...plenty of time to pick other horses.  It's bad for the KDFW but that is racing.  Unless some article comes out that they (UMs connections) knew far in advance that he was sick then I don't think we can assume they did something wrong.  I can honestly say that if I had UM, I would probably do the same thing, contemplate very hard whether to run him or not.  Another thing, if UM was owned by a syndicate, most likely, they would have run him regardless because they answer to investors, not horsemen/women (except WPT, ZooKeeper would've raised hell and whacked them upside the head) so I have to give kudos to Repole for actually scratching.  I think the money he is spending on the horse says a lot too.

What's really sad for me is that, so many people thinks UM is a one of a kind horse.  If he does come back to race, then we will find out but if they retire him, we will be again left with question marks how good he is.  His fees will be up there, breeding up the ying yang but so far, he has not had a chance to prove that he deserves that billing.  We've seen many many times horses dominating at 2 and not be able to transition their form to their 3 yr old season.  This is how the breeding side of this industry has become.  We all hype horses, then they retired without accomplishing much, not having enough races under them but then we expect them to produce "tough" horses.  We're starting to see that effect in our 3 yr old crop the last few years. The one word I keep waiting to see plastered all over the horse racing world is "rivalry".  Those were the days...

04 Jun 2011 8:06 PM
skyfire

nice pick, Sniper1: NP/Attaboyroy

04 Jun 2011 8:32 PM
Johnny

JayJay no fustration and Uncle Mo was never on any of my tix.

In logic I have a horse 5 weeks post scratch has gained 67lbs his blood work is improving not perfect improving.

You have a trainer who spends all day with this horse and he waited 48hrs prior to scratch. I really do not see the complexity of the decision to scratch.

04 Jun 2011 9:21 PM
LAZMANNICK

sniper1

Nice pick in the Aristides.  Hope you had that ex.  Of course, you know that Draynay is going to hang on your every word now.  You're his new money pit.  Have fun.

04 Jun 2011 9:33 PM
JayJay

Johnny : OK, yeah...good point on the trainer.  It's Todd's job to know the horse, physically and mentally.  Sorry, just realized you were talking about the trainer in your initial post.  For some reason, I thought you were talking about Repole.

04 Jun 2011 10:01 PM
Stevebiscuit

We witnessed the best horse in the nation win again today. Make way for Twirling Candy!

04 Jun 2011 10:58 PM
GunBow

Twirling Candy delivered a truly great physical performance in the Californian.  

This is not to say the performance, overall, was great; the Californian field was solid but not outstanding, and Twirling Candy won by less than 2 lengths.  

As in the Big Cap and other past races, Twirling Candy was mentally and emotionally very shaky in the Californian.  Breaking from the rail, Rosario decided to pull Twirling Candy back behind the two frontrunners, Victory Pete and Aggie Engineer, even though the early pace was slow.  Having to run this slow clearly bothered Twirling Candy, as he became rank and threw his head up and back.  Twirling Candy wasn't as rank as he was in the Big Cap or as Vic Stauffer portrayed, but he clearly did not settle smoothly.

In addition to the difficulties in trying to get Twirling Candy to settle, Rosario was also faced with some race riding from the other jocks.  With TC the horse to beat, the other jockeys were obliged to pin TC between horses.  And when Rosario declined to move up along the rail, there was Garrett Gomez on Soul Candy shooting up into that spot.  

Having to deal with a moderately rank horse, race riding, and having been given instructions to avoid being bounced around between horses(I saw Sadler tell Rosario in the paddock to keep TC from getting pinballed again), Rosario ultimately decided to keep his foot off the accelerator and drift to the back of the field.  Watching the race ontrack, I thought Twirling Candy was done, and that this could be the end of any talk about Twirling Candy as an elite horse.

I had alot of reasons to believe TC was done.  Obviously, the rankness didn't help, nor did the trip.  TC had lost his tactical position and was denied the use of his speed, forced to have to out-close the closers.  For a horse that successfully stalked the strong pace of the track record setting Malibu and who, in his only two losses(Goodwood, Big Cap), faded in the stretch, closing from last appeared to me to be a most improbable task.  To make it worse, TC was forced to make up ground into a very slow pace, with 6 furlongs run in 1:14+.

Yet, there was Twirling Candy flying through the stretch, inhaling solid closers like Spurrier, Soul Candy, and Setsuko.  The way Twirling Candy powered down the lane so effortlessly was almost poetic; it's why I had to be ontrack at Hollywood.

So, is the Hollywood Gold Cup and the older male Eclipse a forgone conclusion?  Nope.

The Californian convinced me that Twirling Candy is the most physically gifted horse in the country, at least among the non-sprinters.  The Californian was big not only because it finally gave TC a stakes win outside his age group, but it also made him a member of the exclusive fraternity of horses that have  won at least a gr.2 stakes(or betterer) on all 3 surfaces(turf, dirt, synthetic).  The race also demonstrated that TC can run from off the pace and close strongly, and I imagine this will be the tactics employed on the horse the rest of the year(although maybe not quite so far back).

Yet, even with all this physical talent, TC will need to be mentally sharper to win gr.1s and to win at 10 furlongs.  Against truly elite competition, TC is not going to be able to be rank and give up ground and energy and still win.  And he's probably going to need the toughness to handle some bumping; Rosario's cautious approach worked in the Californian because TC was simply so much better than the competition, but a tactical concession like the one Rosario made today will not be good enough in a race like the BC Classic or maybe even the Hollywood Gold Cup(which should draw Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, and a sharper Setsuko).  

In short, TC showed in the Californian that he still isn't where he needs to be mentally in order to maximize his tremendous physical talent.  The Californian was certainly an improvement for TC from the Big Cap, but John Sadler still has much work to be done.  If he can ever get TC to settle comfortably early in races, be positioned  off the pace(if pace is fast) and between horses, and save his explosive energy for the stretch, then TC could have multiple gr.1 wins and the HoY to his name by year's end.  But that's alot of ifs.

05 Jun 2011 1:38 AM
GunBow

I was happy to see Noble's Promise win another graded stakes.  I really respect Noble's Promise; he can run on any surface, be effective at a wide range of distances, and he is a proven shipper, having run across the US(including 3 starts out here in Cali, so he's not just travelling the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard) and even in Europe.

Hilda's Passion is very likely the best female sprinter on the continent, but unfortantely for her the BC Filly + Mare Sprint is at 7, not 6, furlongs.

05 Jun 2011 1:45 AM
sniper1

Got away after seeing a customers factory only to see Noble Promise open at 3-5 (off 8-5 but still shorter than I expected---maybe I shouldn't have been touting him since Jan as a top sprinter this year) on so I pressed on exoitics I also had a 20 double going off the filly race---didn't like Might---with NP short for straight bet I pressed with HCB and Atta Boy Roy in ex;s and exactors wound up with $15 ex and $4.50 tri plus double and P3--not enough to retire on but OK===a good day

---Got to Balmoral and won additional $540 on their card

The killer was I was live to the late P4 with 4 horses smallest payout being $600 and got beat by a $100  plus winner with my $3000 P4 horse running second at 17-1 and got $14 on each because no one caught it and it paid 3 of 4---what a way to waste two $19 winners in the sequence and get $56. Going home on a early flight and saying goodbye to the Windy City

Hope all had a good and profitable day -even Dray

Was thinking

A thought

Ever been driving and someone is driving 50MPH in the passing lane and backing up traffic? When you finally get around him you look over to see who the aggravating driver is and he flips you a bird?   My last comments challenging or answering the Dray---its like the race he picked to challenge me--not worth looking at. Nothing to gain even if you win. Maybe if we all ignore him he will go away.--Still hope he wins I don't wish bad things on anyone.

05 Jun 2011 2:30 AM
GunBow

The Hollywood Gold Cup should get Twirling Candy, Setsuko, Awesome Gem and Game on Dude.

Is there any chance a horse from the East or Midwest comes out?  My guess is that most of the older males outside Cali will be pointing to the Stephen Foster and, unfortunately, this year there's only 3 weeks between the Foster and Gold Cup.  3 weeks is certainly possible, but I doubt anyone tries.  That's too bad because I have a feeling 10 furlongs on Cushion Track would be right up Giant Oak's alley.

05 Jun 2011 3:51 AM
Rinzler

I'm all in on Shackleford again. I don't see another front-runner type going along with him. Could be the lone (and controlling) speed.

If he loses, he loses - but it won't be due to lack of heart.

I'm expecting to see a good showing from all horses who were in the Derby.

05 Jun 2011 9:58 AM
Mike Relva

GUNBOW

Good points!

05 Jun 2011 11:05 AM
Mike Relva

GUNBOW

Can detect from your many bright comments you are someone in the business. Agree with your opinion of TC,also if he can put it all together and stay healthy we might see something special.

05 Jun 2011 11:17 AM
Pedigree Ann

RE: Uncle Mo's Diagnosis

Was there not another horse in the barn who came down with the same problem? Pletcher needs to check his feed (or other?) supplier. He had a similar problem in 2002, when Whitney winner Left Bank and another horse died after ingesting what was reported to be bad feed.

05 Jun 2011 12:02 PM
NASCAR PRO

I like Setsuko to turn it around against all comers at the hollywood gold cup at 1mile and one quarter.

05 Jun 2011 12:36 PM
LAZMANNICK

To me Twirling Candy showed today why he is the best older horse racing in N/A today and possibly the best overall horse in N/A period.  Twirling Candy fought Rosario so hard through so much of the race, using so much valuable energy while not really gaining any ground, and was still so much the best.  The field might not have been the toughest, but keep in mind that Setsuko, even with being bumped around in the Big Cap, still finished the 10F in 1.59.47 and received a 100 Beyer on a track where Beyers are much lower than most of us would anticipate.

Some will make much of the time of the Californian, but I’m not one of them.  True, 1.50.00 isn’t very fast for an elite horse in a 9F race, but in individually timing TC’s finishing fractions, 35.78 for the final 3/8ths and 11.58 for the final 8th, I find these acceptable.  Then there is the fact that he fought so hard against Rosario right through to the far end of the backstretch.  In doing that, he was essentially on the bit, probably using as much energy as the horse that was on the lead and yet still being so far back.  It is obvious that he needs to learn to relax and it is probably just as obvious that he is too head strong to accept that fact and will always be one that has to be on or very near to the lead.

We might think that he is capable of being properly rated, but I have my doubts.  True, in the Malibu he was 4th, 3L off the lead before he continued on to get the win, but I don’t really think you could say he was rated.  The 4F (he was 4th, 3L off the lead at that point), were run in 44.69 (TC 45.19) and the 6F (he was 3rd, 1.1/2L off the lead) were run in 1.07.58 (TC 1.07.78), so you can’t say he was being rated.  He was running hard and kept on going while Smiling Tiger and Alcindor didn’t.

In the Strub it was basically the same thing.  Though he remained second and tracked Indian Firewater through much of the race, the fractions were very fast, (6F 1.09.95 and the mile in 1.33.97) and with the final time in 1.46.53.  That meant that TC came home his final 3/8ths in 36.53 and the final 8th in 12.56.  These finishing fractions were slightly slower than his finishing fractions in the Californian, but once again they were after very fast early fractions so I don’t think you could say he was being rated early on.

My thoughts on how he would do if he ran the 10F. To me, being covered up yesterday even though he didn’t like it, prevented him from moving up earlier. But there are two things to consider.  Moving earlier means that he would have started using his available energy earlier, which also probably would have put him closer to the front or maybe on the lead.  There is also another point to consider and that’s the energy TC expanded from being hard held and pulling hard against the bit. If we could say that one might offset the other and the fact that he was buried in the pack and fighting probably took as much out of him as going for the lead, then maybe we could say that TC would have gotten 10F today even if the race was run in 2.01. However, the thing with TC is that he has to learn relax. Even without relaxing I think he’ll beat most horses going 9F, but that extra furlong is very tough for a horse running on the bit for almost the entire distance.

There is an alternative………….Twirling Candy is proven on the turf and I believe he could be one of the top milers in the world.  Create some excitement and run him at a mile on the turf and aim for a head-to-head confrontation with Goldi.  That would be classic, Goldi with her devastating finishing kick and Twirling Candy with his penchant for burning up the track and running fast early fractions (with the ability to carry on).

I have often wondered how Goldi would have run against two time BC Mile Turf winner Lure.  Goldi coming from behind with her devastating finishing kick and chasing Lure, and Lure laying down the solid early fractions like he did when he easily won his two B C Miles in 1.32.4 on the old Gulfstream turf and 1.33.2 on the S/A turf, in each race setting a solid pace and then pulling away in the end.  A tussle between TC and Goldi would certainly be a highlight of the season as far as I’m concerned.

05 Jun 2011 1:29 PM
JayJay

LAZ : Congrats on your Aristides pick as well!  It's not surprising you and sniper1 got it right.

05 Jun 2011 1:48 PM
JayJay

GunBow : I think by now you should know that east coast horses are afraid to fly over the rockies.  I'd be very surprised if they do.  The quality of horses there are dwindling as well.  Did you notice how much press the Met Mile got ?  One day before the race, there was no article about it...why ?  The field was so so.  Last year when QR ran, it was all over bloodhorse and DRF, this year, I couldn't find anything.   The Belmont had all the attention right now, I guess the mediocre 3 yr old crop is more exciting to the press than the older horses over there in the east coast.

05 Jun 2011 2:26 PM
calico cat

GunBow,

Loved to read your take on The Californian. Like you, I wasn't surprised that Twirling Candy won the race, it's the way he went about it that was unexpected. I hope he continues going in the right direction. He's so very talented!

05 Jun 2011 2:42 PM
JayJay

I think AK has his work cut out for him with MMM's recent work.  The way he is going into the Belmont, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes off at 7-2, still a good price.  AK galloped a 1 1/2 after a van ride.  Now just want to see how Shack does on the track and how he looks on race day.  Anyone know when Nehro will be at Belmont or is he there already ?  I'm guessing Draynay would know since he has guaranteed Nehro will win the Belmont.

05 Jun 2011 3:08 PM
Bob from Boston

Where is Ted from LA and his girlfriends mz and Single in LA?  All my rowdy friends have settled down.

05 Jun 2011 8:09 PM
Bob from Boston

Dr. D,

Ted from LA and Bob from Boston agree and concur.  I would have replied to the last blog, but Ted and Bob don't like to look in the rear view mirror.  Is there a difference between "agreeing" and "concurring?"  Because if there is, I wish I could think of a word that means "agree" and be funny, but I can't.  I am going to go into humor rehab right after I attend the Belmont... to all Ted from LA's and Bob from Boston's fans, we are sorry.  Who is going to attend the Belmont???... besides Ted and Bob or course...

06 Jun 2011 12:58 AM
GunBow

Laz:

I absolutely agree with your analysis of Twirling Candy.  I'm not sure Twirling Candy is ever going to rate smoothly.  It's possible he gets a little better each race, but it's also possible his behavior goes up and down, ok one race, poor the next; like I said, I have doubts whether TC will ever have a "great" rating race.

And you are right that even if TC continues to have problems rating, he still has the physical ability to win races, particularly those at 9 furlongs and shorter.  I agree that it's at 10 furlongs that he will really suffer the consequences of his behavior.

I also agree that Twirling Candy could be dynamite if put back on turf.  I have a friend that swears that TC is best on turf.  Would it be that far-fetched had Twirling Candy prepped for the Hollywood Gold Cup in the gr.1 Charlie Whittingham(at 10 furlongs) on turf?  The Whittingham, being run this coming weekend, is a full 4 weeks before the Gold Cup.  Such a schedule wouldn't be unusually demanding given Lava Man swept both the Whittingham and Gold Cup in 06' and then used his 2nd in the 07' Whittingham to set up his 3rd Gold Cup victory.

Twirling Candy is going to have alot riding on the Gold Cup.  If, in his 3rd major race against open company around 2 turns, he fails again, then I think Sadler might indeed go back to the drawing board and maybe point for the turf.  TC is 3 for 4 on synth, 2 for 3 on dirt, and 2 for 2 on turf.

06 Jun 2011 3:36 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

lazmannick

  I would like to see Twirling Candy go the mile turf direction but I doubt if they will. His best races are resonable E1, E2 pace figures and closing with a big kick and strong closing numbers. I loved watching him on the turf. His two turf races were only his 3rd and 4th career races. The numbers weren't that outstanding but you could see the talent and domination. Goldikova is proof that you can be a major star running a mile. Quality Road could have been a major star at a mile also (on dirt). More trainers need to go in the direction of the talent and a horse's preferred distance rather than failing miserably at the classic distance. Twirling Candy could be one of those rare horses that can excel at any surface and distance through 10f but 10f is iffy for him. He can rate and close strong but I'm not sure he can ever relax enough to excel at 10f. He can be a little rank and still excel at 9f and less as we have seen. He only has nine career races so there is still time to learn to relax more. I don't think he is best on the lead, I think he is best off the pace with targets to run at. One thing that is interesting is comparing the Brisnet pace figures to the early fractions in his SA dirt races in Dec and Feb. The early fractions by time are fast but the pace figures aren't. The Gold Cup at HP should be the determining race as to whether they focus on the BC Classic as the goal or not since it's 10f.

06 Jun 2011 9:45 AM
Bob from Boston

Animal Kingdom loves the Belmont track like Dr. D loves his burbon.

06 Jun 2011 12:43 PM
Jason Shandler

It's Lukas. D. Wayne Lukas.

06 Jun 2011 12:44 PM
Mike Relva

DR DRUNKINBUM

I agree,think TC is best off the lead.

06 Jun 2011 1:27 PM
sniper1

Jason-If its me-I can't spell as well as you can and will totally admit to the same--- That is why you have the job writing for the Bloodhorse.

Getting the spelling on Lukas wrong really has no good excuse. I admit defeat and when I am wrong.

Of course you should admit to the same about handicapping a race---??

I also can tell you the trip to the brain through your nervous system and spinal column if you dropped a bowling ball on your left foot to the right side of your brain.

If you also want to know about Ancient Sumerian culture I am up on it--Sargon the Great anyone? Seriously I actually am extremely well read but never mastered spelling.

I also can review cigars with some talent as well---and my picks were posted on TVG (I am the Cigar Man)when I won a handicapping contest one time they promoted. Current Cigar picks

Don Pepin--almost anything made by him (buy the Old Henrys under the Holts banner and save money)

Perdomo Habano Corojo--good cigar without spending a fortune

Sligos (the real one) is something I have been smoking lately--too expensive--certainly can't go on a losing streak and pay for these as a everyday cigar- but a great cigar for a treat.

But spelling you have me--credit where it is due. Word doesn't help me with names.

06 Jun 2011 1:40 PM
Slew

mz:  The 3 yr old championship is divided between males and fillies.  So a filly cannot win the 3 year old male championship.

If you don't think the 2nd half of the year weighs heavily, think of Bernardini who ran in and won the Preakness only...but in the 2nd half of the year, he bloomed and won the 3 yrd old male championship Eclipse by taking the JCGC, Withers, Jim Dandy and Travers.  And won it in spite of losing to Invasor in the BC.  So we still have colts who will be back in the picture...and Saratoga seems to be the prime proving ground....can't wait.

In the mean time...I still think Nehro will finally come into his own for the Belmont.  He's always been my pick, but if AK or Shack win it, that's fine with me too.  I hope that MMM keeps his shoes on, and I think he's the biggest threat in the 2nd half of the year as he matures and learns how to manage his own large frame.

06 Jun 2011 2:17 PM
calico cat

Dr Drunkinbum,

Very good point about running a horse at the distance for which it is best suited. TC is a puzzlement at times. Hopefully his connections will have it figured out by November at CD.

Jason,

Huh? what about Lukas? (sorry, I'm not getting it)

06 Jun 2011 2:19 PM
Draynay

Somebody wake me up when Twirling Candy wins any race outside of California.  I tired of hearing how good horses are in California and then they ship East and get whipped.

06 Jun 2011 3:51 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bob From Boston

   What are Carol and Alice going to be doing while the men are at The Belmont?

06 Jun 2011 4:27 PM
mz

Bob/Ted: the three top reasons for which I have been somewhat absent the board from (see: I like  prepositions at the end of):

1)  I am still in mourning because the Republican ticket will not be Trump-Palin or Palin-Trump (sigh! for what might have been)

2)  I am still attempting to decode Jason's cryptic 12:44 post today: is it like, "Bond...James Bond"?  Is it an explanation of why the Rapture didn't happen on May 21st?  Is it an oracular statement about the Belmont: will he win in his cowboy boots and chaps (I think Jean, Single and I would probably pay to see that)

3)  I am working.  (Don't laugh.  It could happen)

Still AK/MOH exacta

06 Jun 2011 5:14 PM
JayJay

What about Lukas ?  I guess I missed the whole previous convo about that.

LAZ / Dr. D : What do you guys think about Stay Thirsty's chance in the Belmont ?  I've always thought he was the better of the two Repole's horses.  I don't know if he's good enough to go against AK and MMM plus Shack but then again this is the Belmont and I have this nagging feeling he will enjoy 12F.  He'll be at a good price too, probably 12-1 to 15-1 when the gate opens.

06 Jun 2011 6:01 PM
Householder

"I'm not Mr. Lebowski I'm the Dude."  "Call me the Dude."

I think First Dude or Game on Dude may have something to say for Baffert in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  He seems to have First Dude turned around against lesser (Did ya think this one could win back to back?) and if TC falters at 10 furlongs (which is highly possible) either Dude can, and have, handled the distance.  

It looks like patience for First Dude has paid off.  

Now 3 year olds...Jaycito in the Swaps?  I still think Baffert has some good 3 year olds in his barn, who just might be getting better, like Awesome Patriot and Coil.

06 Jun 2011 6:36 PM
Paula Higgins

Well mz, if you live in New York maybe you can still vote for Rep. Weiner in 2 years.

Like Animal Kingdom for the Belmont. He is one amazing looking horse.

06 Jun 2011 10:13 PM
mz

Slew: to be pedantic (which I am), the title of this blog is "3YO championship at stake", not "3YO COLT championship at stake".  

[now I actually thought and re-thought about this post -- should I just let it pass and mumble terrible comments about Slew under my breath?  Should I be generous and say "thank you" without any sarcasm implied?  This careful consideration shows how much better-brought-up I am than many other bloggers][And then I re-thought that last aside ...and then I re-read some of the previous posts and I said whatthehell and posted]

Sorry, Slew.

By the by: when will Ms. Palin's new book on Paul Revere, Loyalist Hero be coming out?  ("The Americans are coming!  The Americans are coming!")

06 Jun 2011 10:51 PM
Slew

Pedigree Ann: Re: Uncle Mo...

Dr Rick Arthur explained Sunday on HRTV that horses do not have a gall bladder, but they do have bile ducts connected to the liver.  If a duct is blocked, it creates an inflammation involving the liver resulting in the condition Uncle Mo is experiencing.  Hope that helps to explain it.  I certainly hope he recovers fully, but it seems to be a condition that can take a while to resolve itself.

07 Jun 2011 8:24 AM
Weekend

anyone been following the horse racing in China? Imagine daily track attendance at 100,000 people. It would be like the Oaks everyday....

07 Jun 2011 8:36 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

  At this point without the pps he would be my seventh choice for the top two spots. So far I don't plan on using him. I don't think he's up to the caliber of some of these yet but the distance could suit him and it wouldn't be a total shock. Just a surprise. There are others at those odds I like a little better. And I don't think he's the better of the two. I like Mo quite a bit more. Thirsty been one of hope and potential only so far, and we have a few probable monsters in The Belmont. But if you like him you shouldn't let anyone's opinion deter you. Just don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Also, when you do have a proven talent like Shackleford where everything sets up good for his style like in The Preakness don't just go for exotics. He had excellent odds for a nice WP, W, WS, or WPS bet. If you spend $200 on exotics, that could be $2600 on a win bet for $200. Especially if you're keying him on top, you could just go for the win bet. But I hope you played your exacta. That was a good one. Even on that with just two horses you could go a $20 box instead of $5. How to bet is the tricky part of the game, and I haven't mastered yet it by any means. Stay Thirsty is one I just don't have any feel yet for what he's all about.

07 Jun 2011 10:59 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper, Mike Relva, Bob and Ted

   I concur.

07 Jun 2011 11:01 AM
Bob from Boston

It's Ted.  Ted from LA.

07 Jun 2011 11:08 AM
LAZMANNICK

Jayjay

To me Stay Thirsty is a dart board pick as in “when you throw the dart are you finally going to get the bulls eye or are you once again going to land on anyone of 500 or so other locations”.

Stay Thirst is one horse that I think has never lived up to his hype and possibly if he was owned by a less known owner or trained by a less famous trainer would probably not even be talked about at this point.  He has two lifetime wins, including his maiden in his second start in a field where he was 3 to 5 and won by better than 5 lengths, but where he was also the only horse in the 9 horse field that had a previous lifetime start.  The time was slow and he only received an 81 Beyer.

His only other win, the G3 Gotham (89 Beyer), was run in slow time with the forth quarter in24.90 (almost 25 seconds) the slowest of the first four quarters (none under 24.29), and with his final 16th in 6.41 which extrapolates out of a minimal 25.64 to 26 final quarter, so the field wasn’t going with him and he was very erratic in the stretch.  I know that Toby’s Corner was third, and the Gotham broke a personal three race winning streak, but he did have a wide trip and he fought the bit for much of the way, and unlike Stay Thirst, did manage to go forward off that race with his Wood victory.  To date, Stay Thirsty has not moved forward.

True, Stay Thirsty did finish 2nd in the Hopeful to BAT (86 Beyer), but that was a four horse field and his running style was to go to the lead, something which he hasn’t tried since.  In the Juvenile he was about seven lengths further behind BAT than the hopeful so once again he didn’t move forward.

In the Florida Derby Stay Thirsty had a terrible race and was essentially given up on in the stretch.  In the Kentucky Derby he was forwardly placed, suffered the usual bumping, then faded to 17th, 11 lengths off the lead.

He has had three works since the Derby, 47.97 (2nd best of 72), 1.12.12 (best of 4), and 1.00.45 (3 of 15), so he appears to be working solidly.  However, he was working solidly before the Derby also.  I do not like to influence anyone off a horse, but I know if it was me I wouldn’t bet him and if I did I would demand 20-1 odds or so.

07 Jun 2011 1:01 PM
Skip

Jason could it be you're referring to the fact that several people keep writing Lucas when it's

LUKAS?

Otherwise some people who know things about horse racing might think they're referring to the other Lucas' in QH racing?

07 Jun 2011 2:37 PM
sniper1

I am actually going to get back on track with Jason’s original topic about 3 yr. old Championship.

 I am going to go way, way, off traditional thinking because of a race I saw on TVG on Sunday. I saw a 3yr old beat a very mediocre group ON SYNTHETIC but still was awed on how easily he did it.  Not only that, he was far too wide throughout the race and came from out of it with very slow fractions and his move was breath taking. The jock also knew what he had at all points which I guess made him ride like he was 30 lengths the best I am thinking the best 3 yr. old might be north of the border if he improves and can run on dirt.

For those who can get bets on the BC early’s and if he is not on “all others” he may be worth a few bobs in The BC and BC Turf as I believe he already has won there. His name is "Check Your Soul". I truly hope they bet Queensplate Kitten in the Queen’s Plate and normally I don’t bet Synthetic but I have too even if I only get 2-1 and I don’t like betting straight when the price gets too low. I thought this horse was that impressive.

You probably won't see him because he has about $2 million to win in the Canadian Triple Crown and run in restricted races --Poly-Dirt-Turf one of each in their TC--but if he comes south ---look out!

07 Jun 2011 2:53 PM
Householder

Draynay did someone not wake you up in time for the Kentucky Oaks?

and...Awesome Gem has had a better 8 year old season than Secretariat did.    

07 Jun 2011 3:06 PM
Householder

Draynay it looks like your Noble's Promise is back to his winning ways after a drubbing by Twirling Candy out west.  My advice for NP.  Stay back east where you have a chance.  

07 Jun 2011 3:18 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Guess you were ASLEEP WHEN PLUM PRETTY WON LAST MONTH.

07 Jun 2011 3:35 PM
Bob from Boston

Someone needs to start asking Mr. Weiner the hard questions.

07 Jun 2011 3:51 PM
mz

Sniper1: I concur and  agree.  I saw him [Check Your Soul] in the Plate Trial and he did look awesome.

Paula Higgings: unfortunately, I do not live in Mr. Weiner's jurisdiction -- thought I thought long and hard about including him in my post (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more, Ted/Bob).

07 Jun 2011 5:06 PM
sniper1

House--First-- he didn't pick NP

Second--Chances are those two will NOT meet up against each other unless at 7 @ Saratoga which is very very unlikely.

Although Twirling Candy is a very nice horse and may prove to special at some time in the future, the horses he beat are not about to be remembered by horse racing fans except their owners. He has much to prove

Excerpt From my post a few above.

I saw a 3yr old beat a very mediocre group ON SYNTHETIC but still was awed on how easily he did it.

Maybe you should say the same until proven.

Bob---- Weiner jokes-Really?

My son who is 4 yrs old came home with this one which beats yours and not a Weiner joke but is in the same mode.

IF YOU HAVE TWO GREEN BALLS ONE IN EACH--- YOUR RIGHT AND LEFT HAND---

WHAT DO YOU HAVE?????????????

KERMIT'S UNDIVIDED ATTENTION

07 Jun 2011 5:16 PM
Mike Relva

Read the news regarding Sidney's Candy transferred to Pletchers barn. I feel sorry for him.

07 Jun 2011 5:58 PM
Householder

I think Baffert will ship out and take the Haskell for a second straight year with one of his talented 3 year olds.  Lookin forward to the Point Given colt COIL in this Saturday's Affirmed.

07 Jun 2011 6:29 PM
Bob from Boston

sniper1, I have no problem with your son's joke.  In fact, I never did like Kermit the Frog. Now Miss Piggy... vaa vaa vaa voom!  mz, I bow before your last post.  And, unlike Draynay, I hope it isn't your last post

08 Jun 2011 12:37 AM
JayJay

Shhh...please don't wake up Draynay.  It's understandable that the horses in the east bores him to sleep.

Thanks Dr. D and LAZ.  I must say, I wasn't expecting that kind of response about Stay Thirsty but you both made very good points and I will keep them in mind.  I'm still high on Shackleford, as I've said before "Da Tara" and he's a classy mean fighting machine, the horse never gives up.  I really have to wait until race day to figure out where I'll play him.  I'm on AK and MMM because of the distance.  MMM will be a great value as I think Brilliant Speed will probably take some of the money as well.  We all know Draynay will bet the farm on MoH and Nehro, plus his "table" will add another 100 tickets on each because they always listen to him.  I'm gettin excited, it should be a great race.

08 Jun 2011 3:35 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

   If you like Stay Thirsty then include him in a box or do a seperate Win bet. You could very well be right. I'm not saying that it is out of the question. Pletcher has done well preparing horses for the Belmont. Of course Rags to Riches, but Dunkirk ran very well too, and he didn't do very well in The Derby.

08 Jun 2011 11:04 AM
sniper1

Bob--the joke was OK I just heard far too many in a short time.

And-- for my son's joke he didn't have a clue why it was funny which made it all the funnier.

I have been teaching him to read at night and not just pre-school books,  sometimes we use Jay Leno's  How to Be the Funniest Kid in the Whole Wide World which I saw in a used book store and purchased. It has a lot of knock knock jokes and ones he can remember and understand.

Hopefully he will tell clean jokes and not the off color ones and have the sarcastic humor of his dad.

Been around racetracks too long. I am the last of my family hopefully to take that path.

08 Jun 2011 12:47 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Excuse my weariness, I guess I am amazed to see someone refer to the Californian field as Solid, this was the statement I believe.  “the Californian field was solid but not outstanding, and Twirling Candy won by less than 2 lengths.”

You know they say opinions are like Well u know, and everyone has one and in this case the poster is as wrong as the day is long.  Learning to read was easy for some of us, learning to read pps is apparently a bit more difficult.  Look at this field.

Setsuko 1/12 lifetime, total earnings under $400k top win msw38k

Aggie engineer 7/19 lifetime,  total earnings under $400k top win G2

Soul candy  4/14 life time, total earnings $300k, top win $150k stakes

Spurrier 5/30 life time,  total earnings under $400k, top win g2

Honour the deputy 3/8 lifetime, total earnings under $100k, top win 25k Aoc

Victory pete 3/18 lifetime, total earnings under $250k, top win alw 55k/ nw2

TC 6/8 lifetime, total earnings under $600k, top win G1 sprint

109/29wins   wow what a stellar group. 27% winning clip for that top California field of males running in the Californian.  If that’s a solid field, there is a legitimate issue out west. Im just saying.  Let me revise that, if you are under the impression that this field is deep or quality or even considered good, then i'd advise to find another sport to be a fan of. I don’t care who you are, you could be the president of the ntra or owner of a track, the truth is if you can't look at the pps and see this was barely an allowance group well you have to think to yourself, why don’t I have common sense.

08 Jun 2011 2:40 PM
Footlick

AAF- just wanted to say nice post about Zarkava on HRN.  I don't comment there anymore but read the posts still, and since I am a fair minded person and have taken you to task before, I will also tell you when I agree.  Great post about a great filly!  Thanks

08 Jun 2011 3:36 PM
AfleetAlexForever

I appreciate that Footlick, I think or feel in my opinion its very unfair to great horses to have a disconnect due to location. I do take west coast racing to task a great deal because of the lack of depth throughout the divisions out there. But when we start to discount horses that ran over seas where the stamina influence is still #1 and top priority it detracts from the views that some have towards americans that can't comprehend what its like for horses to compete at 10-12 furlongs throughout the year, these are not easy tasks.  Yes European racing is different as they usually canter along the first mile, or mile and 1/4 but the fact is the turn of foot thats needed to win at 12furlongs is the most impressive thing you'll ever see, not a horse winning on the front end or hanging on barely, and there certainly should be no supremecy felt due to the fact that american racing focuses solely on dirt. A great horse is a great horse Period, hands down.  Zarkava was one of those that made you wake up and take notice, and for me to be up early on a Sunday Morning to watch the Arc, that was not something I took lightly.  She was an amazing talent and was actually able to be allowed to show it on the track.  Would have loved to have seen her at 4 but the ride she took us on was amazing while she was in training.

08 Jun 2011 4:06 PM
LAZMANNICK

Jayjay

Dr. D and myself offer a nice service for free, guaranteed to analyze your horses before the race, not give you an in-depth analysys 48 hours later like someone else we all know.

08 Jun 2011 4:18 PM
sniper1

AfleetAlexForever

If you read my post I agree in principle the field wasn't too tough but the way he did it was. I'm still out until he wins in the east (God I can't believe I really said that--)

BUT!!!!!!!!

Am I alone in thinking that telling everyone a horse that is 4 for 4 with big beyers and 2 yr old of the year or a horse going for a 4th BC isn't telling everyone anything we already know or even to the dumbest casual horse racing fan?

As long as the statement is possible even unlikely why rip them? If it is really dumb go hit them and rip them apart---Twirling Candy was impressive and may continue to do well. So n so says blah blah blah is the greatest of all time---take them apart

Most who do that think Justin Timberlake is better than Frank Sinatra they just are in the here and now and no nothing about the past.

It is much more gratifying if they don't know and you are early on the band wagon of a rising star.

Give me the this years 2 yr old BC winner today and in Nov I would be very impressed.

I will go out on a limb---this year one of Ward's 2 yr olds will amazingly stretch out and win the 2 yr crown and Breeder's Cup after returning from England.

08 Jun 2011 4:18 PM
ChalkBuster

Yea, this years Californian is strikingly similar to the 2009 Woodward. Nice catch AAF

08 Jun 2011 4:20 PM
AfleetAlexForever

First let me address Little Buster, the only difference in the two races is that 1 was a Grade 1 at a historic track and one of the most prestigious races in the US, the other was that horses that ran in the Woodward were coming off Grade 1 victories in Bullsbay and Macho Again.  Again the lack of literacy in this country is appalling, Little Buster you seem to be one that is more concerned with a horse taking on and beating alw/oc and nw/2 on a consistent basis, if that’s what you like so be it. But keep your naïve comments to a minimum, because 1 liners cause you to be laughed at and not taken seriously.  

Sniper, what you’re asking me to do is pick and choose horses with zero starts for their career and figure out who will advance and move forward to races like the Champagne, Norfolk and then the BC Juvi.  Possibly, I am not sure, because I’ll have to check the stupid meter, but that is quite possibly the most idiotic statement ever posted in a public forum.  Its ranking right up there with the poster from TVG Community that states that Havre De Grace is overrated and that TC is in the Hunt for HOY. Worst of all you bring yourself under scrutiny when the post I made was directed to the supposed guru of the horse racing world Gunbuck or Gunbowed.  A bit Vain are you Sniper, how about you give me the name of each starter that Ward has going at Ascot and let me know which race they are going in.  Sometimes people like you should be paid for the comedy you bring to the site, statements like the one you made are classic.  As for TC, let me revisit that, the horse won the allowance quality race in allowance quality time due to allowance quality race riding and Grade III handling, he breezed by them without effort.  Again the field had 109 starts combined with 29 wins come on what did you expect, did you think he would lose, wake up folks.  Bring him east let him finish up the track or become Rail Trip part Deux.

08 Jun 2011 4:49 PM
LAZMANNICK

AAf at the Improv......comedy at its finest.

Thanks for the laughs Dubby.  See you do have some use if only to fill a void.  Only you can provide us with enough comedy to get by a slow night on TV.

08 Jun 2011 5:19 PM
sniper1

AA Forever---The two yr old comment if you took it seriously you need your head read. Sarcasm sweetheart.XXX

My thing or point was really quite simple I trying to make--Did TC beat anybody important?--NO but why knock someone who thinks he has the capabilities to before it is proven he can't.

I smoke cigars and know them well do you have any idea how many people tell me Cubans are the best--yet they don't smoke and I have been to Cuba 3 times and they haven't--

Does it make someone look brilliant to state the obvious about horses?

A lot of people that never go to the races know Secretariat ---My God, they even made a bad, un-factual movie about him. Ask Mr.Haskin, if Lucien was anything like that---Some have actually met him and Turcotte. (and Ron's brother Noel also a jockey and John Fellie that was the contract bug rider and galloped the barn's horses---I don't think he made the picture or a jockey for long before he went back to MN)

Yes the Grace is unbeaten or tried this year--wow--good horse--brilliant --you are certainly alone in that opinion.---- Yeah right---

Maybe The filly Winter Memories might win some 3 yr old filly turf stakes this year---BOY-- WHOMEVER SAID THAT IS IN FRONT OF THE CURVE-tough one-- great prediction

Need I go on? Why not pick a horse IN FRONT OF THE CURVE AS I TRIED TO DO? If I need help picking 3-5's I look you up. Give me one in the Shackleford range of 12-1 or a lightly raced 3 colt or filly that is under the radar who will be a force later in the year besides Uncle Mo and right or wrong at least I will respect your opinion for thinking out of the box--NOT Harve will be tough in the filly and mare ranks this year-Really?-Gee thanks. I'll write it down. OH! Keep an eye on Blind Luck as well---thanks-- your the best!

Yeah-- You should picking on others with that wealth of knowledge you've shown

Anybody got an eraser to clean up the chalk everywhere???????

08 Jun 2011 7:39 PM
LAZMANNICK

AAF also likes Goldi......for now.

08 Jun 2011 8:50 PM
Weekend

Here is one Sniper. COIL. He beat Smash last out and is racing this weekend. He may not be 12-1, but I think he wins at Hollywood.

09 Jun 2011 9:14 AM
Householder

Yes COIL should make a good accounting for himself on the stretch out and should have no distance problems.  Baffert's plans are the Haskell.  Like the Point Given colt.

He'll have to contend with Awesome Patriot who just nursed some speed around 1 1/8th and is now backing up a sixteenth for the Affirmed.  I really hoped Baffert would have sent this one to the Belmont.  I thought his running style was perfect.  Probably more than a little light on graded stakes earnings though.  

Remember those "gifted" Baffert three year olds Jason mentioned...

09 Jun 2011 2:52 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Sniper its like you know me, is this an alias of yours, do you really post at NTRA and run with the girls over there, you know the usual suspects, Lazmannic the leader of the group, with Mike Relva and Phony.  I think the  current nickname for them is the Three Stooges I am sure you can get acceptance in the group, the only requirement is that you don’t know much about horse racing, check. You don’t have any original thoughts of your own, check, and you follow Lazmannic’s lead and agree with him no matter what he says even if you disagree.  They travel in a band around the cyber world, Ntra, Bloodhorse, tbtimes and other sites making points about how great Cali racing is.  As you see Laz has now annointed the ultra talented 2/3 this year Twirling Candy the best older male or well horse in the US right now off a victory in a 9f Grade 2 against an optional claimer type field.  And it seems like well I think you probably agree with him right.  Here’s what you may not know, I’ve touted Havre De Grace for quite a long time now, even when back with the underachieving Tony Dutrow who apparently didn’t have the ability to get the best out of her at 3.  Different Trainer, different horse, she’s thriving, owned by a great man in Rick Porter of Fox Hill Farm, as seen by the statements made by Larry Jones, they wont sit on and sugar coat her year of racing to try to win year ending awards through the back door like others.  I am glad to see they are playing some home court ball though in taking down the next two races at Delaware, its cool to lead her over out of her stall instead of shipping, she’s shipped more this year alone in the first few months than 1 horse we know of whole career.  As for Chalk, let me see I touted her at 4/1 in the Alabama, or 4/1 in the BCLC, nothing at all like chalk in those races.  But ok, you made a point I enjoy a horse that is 2 for 2 with a stakes record to her credit this year, do you have a point, do you want me to give you my personal fav in the Belmont Saturday in Stay Thirsty, or do you want me to give u savvy Supreme in the Acorn, or possibly Rule by night in the True North, or Justin Phillip in the Woody Stephens, or Amen hallelujah in the Just a Game, or better yet, Al Khali in the Manhattan considering Gio Ponti does not run well off layoffs. Use many of those choices in your Pick 4 or your exotics tickets, get back to me and let me know how things go.  Or better yet the next time you address me, make sure you are actually talking about something instead of just blowing all of that hot air about nothing.

09 Jun 2011 3:46 PM
sniper1

AAF--If you only knew 1/2 of what I forgot you'd be a contender

--that said the only horse mentioned I 1/2 like is Al Khali only because I believe he doesn't like Churchill and having a $100 plus bet two back he had absolutely no excuse for not closing the deal--but I admit I am a sucker for him because given even a glimmer of room he wins two more big stakes last year.

There are many reasons to take a shot against Turbulent Decent--but I WILL GO CHALK and pick her---I just think she is the best and you have to single somewhere win or lose. CA Horse and all

That with the Derby and Preakness Winners on the back end (note I picked Shackford in the Preakness so no Johnny Come Lately)

3 of pick 6 one (TD) by two (Al and Gio) by two (Shack and AK)--the other races since I am in another airport waiting to go home and without a form but a good memory I haven't a pick yet for the middle races(will)

I really want to pick Straight Shot as a bomb because of the pace scenario I expect which will also hinder my 2 but can't because he just doesn't look good enough. These are not NYB's although he beat a very good but troubled trip horse last time  

I have too much time on my hands but a medley of stars  I can join you to the club (providing you are not really KY Vet)--read below

Someone always talks about posting their winners as proof sooo –I’m sorry I should stop as I promised

It is like a night I was leaving Meadowlands and a couple of large people I knew slipped in the doorway and I couldn’t resist yelling –Track- Track riders avoid the fallen horses on the clubhouse turn--- before I helped one get up—

Was it something I shouldn't have done? Absolutely--but I couldn't resist.

I guess you had to be there—I have a weird stream of conscience

------------Master of Hounds wins--------------- with Nehro right behind him.  Animal Kindom picks up Show.

Draynay----------- 08 Jun 2011 7:02 PM---------------

Sway Away is your Preakness winner. His ride last time out was wide and forced way too early.  Watch it again.  He has had 3 very good 6 furlong works and should come in razor sharp.  Gomez can only help his chances.  I will put Sway Away first and 2nd and box him with these four horses.  MMM, Dance City, Astrology, and Animal Kingdom.  Good luck to all.

Draynay ----------21 May 2011 12:44 AM-------------------

Shackleford ?  Jayjay you have to be kidding.

Draynay-------------- 21 May 2011 4:17 AM-------------------

Shackleford did it.  Now come see my boy---- Nehro--------- in the Belmont.  Good call jumping off Dialed In Jayjay it took guts to jump off a closer for a speed horse that failed to hold last time out.  --------------------------------------Off to Belmont and-------------- Nehro !!!!----------------------

Draynay------------- 21 May 2011 7:36 PM---------------------

Consistent on his selections isn't he --I NEVER tout a horse I am not betting

Someone wrote this

Boasting about someone making a mistake rather than what you did right??? Get a job with FOX

My early pick to get back to horse racing is------ Shackleford----- for the Preakness but that can change and he hasn't even made the gate yet--It's Friday the 13th not the 21st of May

sniper1 ----13 May--- 2011 4:27 PM

Too Long for Live Blog

My challenge to the Dray and Vet

Beat this

Quite, unlike the KY Derby, where it remained to be seen on horses trying dirt-how the CA and other states form would hold up and many other factors we have a horse that won the Derby in fairly impressive fashion and could be any kind.

We also have a few that might improve off their showing in the Derby due to lay-offs more than the norm to go 1 ¼ miles.

Since the Derby winner probably won’t give the value in straight betting I will probably try a small -----------------wager on Shackleford----------- guessing he can lay off the pace a touch---All the talk about riders and Borel Factors forgets that a few big name riders mentioned that Jesus Castanon of their peers is one of the most underrated riders in the country.  At 10-1 or more he may be the value—he has only run one bad race and really wasn’t beaten that far on the Derby and may have been best in FL.

Although like the Derby I am hardly solid--BUT--I do like my chances much better in this event than KY.

sniper1 20 May 2011 12:23 PM

SNIPER!!I'M SORRY, BUT WHO TAUGHT YOU THAT ANY OF THOSE HORSES NEEDED THE RACE? IT'S THE KENTUCKY DERBY!!! I HEAR THIS OVER AND OVER AGAIN BY YOU PEOPLE!!! 2 PREPS NOT ENOUGH!! BLAH BLAH....THESE HORSES ARE IN SHAPE!!! GEEZ!!! YOU ACTUALLY WANT 5 WEEKS OFF OR SO....YOU SEEM TO BELIEVE ALL OF THESE OLD SAYINGS. LIKE IF A HORSE FROM SOMEWHERE, IT MEANS THEY ARE ALL GOOD FROM THERE? SO TP IS THE BEST HORSES? OR..SUPED UP TRACKS...YOU BELIEVE ALOT IN BIASES...SO, LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT, YOU LIKE SPEED HORSES?..DOESNT 1 SPEED USUALLY KILL OFF OTHER SPEED? THIS SEEMS DOOMED TO FAIL...SAVE YOUR MONEY....THIS PACE WILL BE VERY FAST!! THEY ARE GONNA LET FLASHPOINT FLY....

KY VET 20 May 2011 5:03 PM Maybe AAF too???

Seems KY Vet disappeared when you/ AAF appeared

Now my Belmont picks which honestly are somewhat chalky so it probably isn’t a good race to bet much on

Key AK and Shack

Over

AK, Shack, Brilliant Speed, and Nethro---$12 Total

it’s only going to pay $60 or $70 IF IT HITS --maybe over $100 if Bril Speed cracks it--better races to bet

All 3/2? of you fit a famous quote made at the Oscars by David Niven years back when a streaker run by on stage

---I have never seen someone so proud of so little-----

I'll quote Winston Churchill later when it fits better

Another stupid thought is Dray a night security guard? All of his posts seem to be in the AM in the middle of the night? Just thinking out loud.

Good luck to all and AAF if you get Stay Thirsty down you deserve kudos--I would never knock a person with a different thought if their horse is 20-1.

Dray although I take shots I hope you kill and make thousands and the races I am not cashing on since we ARE NOT of the same mind--and if my picks don't show up--I hope yours and others do

09 Jun 2011 5:24 PM
Mike Relva

AAF

So,how's your blog comming along? lmao

09 Jun 2011 6:39 PM
sniper1

Billy--Will look up and watch Coil but I don't bet Syn.

At least you get the idea

10 Jun 2011 1:04 PM
Slew

mz:  It seems to be that colts were the subject of conversation, and there is no Eclipse award just for 3 year old champion.  It's 3 yr old male, and 3 yr old female.  And the Eclipse award WAS the topic....and it would seem...no one has grabbed that Eclipse yet.  Now we may have to pay attention to Stay Thirsty to see if he goes to Saratoga and does it like Daddy.  (pedant to pedant)

As far as American politics go...aren't you from Canada?  I am so freakin' tired of Weiner whiners, Charlie's dementia, and Palin's malapropisms.  Maybe the mainstream media should have concentrated more on the Triple Crown, and less on the wasted space inside vacuous craniums.  At least then the news might have been interesting instead of just lurid.  (I still think only birds should tweet, while twitter should go silent)

12 Jun 2011 11:08 AM
white horse

A friend told me about this site and what some said or didn't say about Jockey/Trainer John Fellie.

Well let me give some FACTS.He was first under contract to Max Hirsch untill Mr.Hirsch death in 1969 then Lucien Laurin bought the contract from the Hirsch astate in 1969.Laurin leased the contract to Frank Marrill in Canada in 1970 were he rode races,he also rode all around the U.S.He retired from riding in 1985 and trained race horses starting in 1986.After he retired from training untill the

presant were he has lived on a small cattle ranch he owns in N.M.were he enjoys the ranching life style and still owns a few race horses.Anyway why the interest in John Fellie he's been retired for quit some time and now in his mid 60s.

18 Dec 2011 10:41 PM

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