Coil About Ready to Strike

Another Triple Crown is in the books and unfortunately, it yielded us no Triple Crown winner. That much is not a total surprise.

What is a bit surprising is that with nearly half of the season gone we are no closer to finding out who is the best 3-year-old in the country. You can make a strong argument that Animal Kingdom was the best horse during the Triple Crown, and with any luck at all he could have won at least two legs. But the reality is that he did not win the last two races and while he probably remains the division leader by default, he still has a lot to prove.

As I wrote in a previous blog, I still believe there is a chance that the best 3-year-old did not even run in the Triple Crown. This is a perfect year for a late-bloomer or horse coming off injury to seize control of the division with a major second-half campaign. Who is that horse going to be?

Well, that remains to be seen but I think there is a decent chance that his name could be Coil. There weren't too many that were paying attention on Belmont Stakes day, but Coil, a son of Point Given trained by Bob Baffert, was announcing himself a major 3-year-old at Hollywood Park when he won the grade III Affirmed Handicap in his two-turn debut.

If you haven't seen the replay, here it is. Coil, breaking from the rail, rated along the inside for just under a mile before engaging stablemate Awesome Patriot and taking over. He held off a game rally by Runflatout in the stretch to score by a length for his second win in two starts this season. Baffert had been thinking of running Coil in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens, but decided this was the time to test him going long.

"I thought he would handle two turns; I was hopeful, but you never know until they do it," Baffert said. "They went slow up front and he made an early move. I would have preferred if he waited a little longer but he didn't. It looked like when he made the lead he was looking around. He's still green and needs to mature, but he's a pretty special horse."

Baffert bought Coil for his partners privately from Glen Hill Farm after he ran third in his debut last October at Santa Anita. He went on to break his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in his next start on Nov. 13 but then developed a minor knee chip that had to be removed. Baffert gave him about 40 days off before returning him to training. The chestnut colt ran huge in his season debut May 6 at Hollywood, defeating stablemate Smash by 1 1/4 lengths in an optional claimer going six furlongs. In that one he also had to break from the rail but relaxed beautifully before taking over. He earned a 106 Beyer doing so.

"That comeback race was pretty phenomenal," Baffert said. "The one he beat, Smash, is a really nice horse too."

Baffert bought Coil in large part because he is by Point Given. The trainer of Point Given during his championship campaign of 2001, Baffert still says he is one of the three most talented horses he has ever campaigned. Point Given is still the only horse to have won four consecutive $1 million races--the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers.

"I've been chasing Point Givens ever since. I said this would be my last one," Baffert laughed. "I took a shot with Coil because I saw how well he worked and I saw a lot of Point Given in him. Actually, I think he is better looking than his sire. Coil is stronger in the hind end.

"He reminds me of Point Given from the standpoint that races are not taxing on him. One of Point Given's strongest attributes was that he could run, run, run and it didn't have an effect on him. He got bigger and stronger as the Triple Crown went on. Coil looks like the same kind of horse."

Baffert said the next major goal for Coil is the July 31 Haskell, a race that Point Given won 10 years ago. But before that he would like to get one race into him, either the July 2 Dwyer at Belmont at 1 1/16 miles or the July 9 Swaps at Hollywood at 1 1/8 miles.

"I don't know about going back to one turn with him and I have to consider the shipping, but he's worked over the dirt at Hollywood and handles it well. He's still learning. I'm trying to figure him out still, but I don't think distance will be a problem. He has so much raw talent. He's still one race away from running his best."

And what about the prospects of facing some of the top horses from the Triple Crown in the Haskell and beyond?

"From the standpoint of talent and physical appearance, to me, nothing on the Triple Crown trail is more impressive than he is. He's the kind of horse when you he walks in the paddock, everyone says ‘Whoa.' He looks like a man amongst boys."

As far as Baffert's other major 3-year-olds, on Monday Jaycito had his second work since returning from his foot issues, burning a bullet four furlongs in :47-flat at Hollywood. Baffert said the Travers is the main goal for Jaycito.

"He's doing well. His foot is growing out nicely. It took us a while to get it better. It was a mess."

Baffert also said The Factor is now being tack walked after recovering from a hairline ankle fracture. The King's Bishop Aug. 27 at Saratoga is the summer goal for him, with the long-term goal being the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

"I'll give him a few more weeks," Baffert said. "But he's the kind of horse that stays buff even when he's not training. He won't need too much to get back. We'll keep him one turn and he should be tough."

56 Comments

Leave a Comment:

josh

Nice article Jason!

Glad to hear that the factor and jaycito are doing well. Coil still has to prove he belongs in the upper echelon of the 3 Y.O. division, but he is consistent and that is something no other 3 Y.O. has been able to do. He will get some attention now that TC races are over. I would like to see him run in the Dwyer just to see how he handles the dirt, but that shouldn't be a problem, but you never no until the horse does it.

14 Jun 2011 3:11 PM
Gardner

Did Baffert really use the word "amongst"?    

14 Jun 2011 5:06 PM
trackjack

Great article, Jason.  Thanks.  Wets my appetite for summer and fall racing for this crop.

Coil was on my prelim list for RTTR early until his injury.  Very impressive win in the Affirmed and a good looking colt.  With his breeding he could also have a future on the turf.

Good to hear The Factor is progressing.  I was very impressed seeing him in the morning at CD during Derby week, a calm, cool individual, well muscled.  If he can come back to form he will be very tough at 6-7 furlongs.  Can't wait to see him run again.

Zookeeper:  Didn't get a chance to congratulate you on RFO's place in the Affirmed.  He got beat by a real good one.  Good Luck!

14 Jun 2011 5:11 PM
Ranagulzion

Bob Baffert is talking big about Coil and under-estimating the triple crown graduates but I think that he and many others are mistaken.  Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and Shackleford are going to be quite formidable competition for any late developing 3YO colt for the remainder of the season.  Astrology could also be coming into his own and I don't think that we've seen the last of Mucho Macho Man.  Its not going to be easy for Coil.  

14 Jun 2011 6:34 PM
Zen's Auntie

Coil is a conformationally beautiful colt he looked great winning(making RFO look good in 2nd by the way ZOO congrats)  Didnt get to see it live but got to catch a replay. I am excited to see Coil spring again.

BTW How did I miss the Factor fracturing his ankle?? sure hope hes ok now.

14 Jun 2011 7:22 PM
2:24

I'll always root for a Point Given just like I'll always root for an Afleet Alex.  

Awesome racing in England today.  Wouldn't it be something to have Goldikova, Canford Cliffs and Frankel all come over for The Breeder's Cup Mile.  The Breeder's Cup should switch the purses for the Mile and the Classic just to get it to happen (especially given the lack of great dirt horses running at classic distances).

14 Jun 2011 8:48 PM
Paula Higgins

Interesting topic. I think you're right about Coil. Still hoping to see Uncle Mo and Animal Kingdom is also a really good horse. Canford Cliffs is something special and Frankel continues to win. Goldikova ran a great race too. She is an amazing horse and never stops trying. Love her. I wonder if Canford Cliffs will come for the Breeders Cup races?

14 Jun 2011 9:35 PM
thomas

wow he reminded me of point given when he tugged himself to the lead. i hope they ship him for the travers

15 Jun 2011 1:54 AM
Tiznowbaby

I would think that the problem with Coil is that he currently is a member of that hated club: a California poly specialist.

15 Jun 2011 2:15 AM
GunBow

Thanks Jason for your continuing coverage of the Baffert 3 year olds.  

I've thought for a while Baffert had a good group, but it just didn't work out for the Triple Crown.  I completely agreed with your assessment during the Triple Crown that Baffert never had that much confidence in Midnight Interlude, but played out the hand because the horse just happened to be healthy at the right time(and took advantage of a depleted Cali 3 year old division).

I bet if Baffert had to rank his 3 year olds on pure talent he would have Midnight Interlude 5th, behind The Factor, Coil, Jaycito, and Smash.

I know some readers may be put off by another article about a big-name trainer(Pletcher and Baffert being common topics), but there is a reason why Baffert and Pletcher have won so much money and so many big races for a decade+.  For Baffert, it's now been over 20 years of successful training.

Unlike Pletcher, who got a leg-up when he went out on his own given his experience with Lukas, Baffert rose the training ranks from the bottom.  Baffert's entrance into thoroughbred racing (from the quarters) coincided with my introduction to the sport.  And getting to see California racing on a nightly basis, I quickly became a fan of Baffert, as he trained some of my favorite horses growing up.  These horses were by no means superstars; rather, Baffert's stable in the early years was largely filled with Cal-bred sprinters, hardly the type of horses that make trainers alot of money.

But Baffert did a great job with these Cal-bred sprinters, keeping them sound and competitive late into their careers.  One notable example was the recently deceased Letthebighossroll.  A 3 year old gelding of 1991, The Big Hoss was one of the first really good thoroughbreds Baffert trained for Mike Pegram.  As a 3 year old, Big Hoss was a dark silver late-running sprinter, but by the time he won the 96' Triple Bend at age 8, he was a white front-runner.  The Big Hoss ultimately made over $1 million, and retired to live a long life(a number of publications noted his recent passing).  

For Baffert, his first national breakthrough was with 92' BC Sprint winner, Thirty Slews.  And while I was also a fan of that big gray, it was Baffert's work with horses like Letthebighossroll and fellow Cal-bred gelding sprinter Gundaghia that drew my respect.  

Baffert broke out really big on the national scene in 96' when his Cavonnier ran 2nd, by a nose, in the Derby.  Just a year later he would have Silver Charm, and a year after that Real Quiet.  But it was fitting that Baffert's first Triple Crown star, Cavonnier, was a Cal-bred gelding.  And people should not forget that neither Silver Charm nor Real Quiet was prized yearlings.

15 Jun 2011 2:40 AM
GunBow

The Vanity Handicap is coming up solid this weekend at Hollywood Park.  It should have Blind Luck, Switch, St. Trinians, and Miss Match among others.

I know some Zenyatta bashers put down the Vanity the last 3 years, but it really is one of the best races for older females.  Team Zenyatta did not need to offer any excuse for running in the Vanity, because the race stands on its own.

With that said, I found it interesting to read today that Hollendorfer plans to run Blind Luck in the Delaware Oaks next month, against Havre de Grace, after the Vanity.  Blind Luck shipped across the country last year, and already this year she has run in Cali, Arkansas, and Kentucky.  Team Zenyatta could have used some of the brass of Team Blind Luck.

Critics of Zenyatta's schedule, I get it.  I would have loved to have seen Big Z running 10 furlongs at Delaware.

15 Jun 2011 2:52 AM
GunBow

Jason:

Baffert didn't happen to mention the other two horses he puts up with Point Given as the 3 most talented he has trained?  

Before Point Given, I remember Baffert referring to General Challenge as his most physically talented horse, physical talent which was off-set by his mental issues(still won 3 big races).  

Silver Charm and Lookin at Lucky were true professionals, absolute champs, but I don't recall Baffert bragging about their talents the way he did Point Given.  The same is true for Real Quiet.  Maybe Indian Charlie?  And although he didn't train him his whole career, he did rave about War Emblem's high cruising speed.

The non-classic horse I know Baffert held in high esteem was Midnight Lute.  All through the 07' Strub series(which included Awesome Gem), Baffert bragged about Lute, but Lute didn't deliver.  But when he shortened him up to sprints, wow!  Lute's 07' and 08' BC Sprint wins were simply awesome.

In my opinion, Baffert's best horse was Silver Charm.  But the most naturally talented was Point Given, followed by Midnight Lute, then General Challenge and Indian Charlie.  Among the females, Silverbulletday was really special.

15 Jun 2011 3:03 AM
GunBow

Correcting myself, Hollendorfer plans to run Blind Luck in the Delaware Cap next month, not the Delaware Oaks(open to just 3 year olds, which she won last year)

15 Jun 2011 5:29 AM
NASCAR PRO

Thats good to hear,he will take money whereever he races being by Point Given,and trained by Baffert.I would like to see 12 horse fields for all the major 3yo stake races for the rest of the year.

15 Jun 2011 8:50 AM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

Agree and I stated on last weeks blog it's too early to discount these 3 yr olds.

15 Jun 2011 9:29 AM
mz

Thank Gawd for 2:24.  I was wondering where I could comment on the great racing going on at Royal Ascot!

So Frankel's either playing around in his races or others are catching up -- he appeared to just make it over Zoffany -- and if he'd just palying around, does this mean he will dig in when facing eg. Goldikova or does this mean he will stop because he's not used to it?  Who knows.

I'm also wondering if Bridgetown may have been somewhat confused and Gentleman's Code as well - big fields running up and down straight courses with part of them running down one side of the track and part of them running down the other side of the track .... I'd be confused too.

What does everyone think of Power?

- 30 - for now.  

15 Jun 2011 10:42 AM
Footlick

mz- jock and trainer said Frankel got bored up front and shut down.  Jock said he moved earlier than he wanted.  He certainly opened up easily on the field.  Whether he was playing or he tired seems open to opinion and debate.

15 Jun 2011 10:49 AM
gw bushwacker

I see Goldikova got dusted just like she will get dusted if she attempts to win the Mile at the Breeders Cup again this year. I hope she shows up and takes all the money, i'll be betting against her this time around. One of the best milers ever but no more than that.

15 Jun 2011 1:20 PM
2:24

gw bushwacker - "one of the best milers ever but no more than that."  What does this mean?  Is she expected to be more?  Certainly one of the best milers ever can also be one of the best horses ever?  What about Brigadier Gerard or Mill Reef?  A couple of the best milers ever and also the best horses ever.  I don't understand your comment.

Also, Goldikova doesn't get "dusted."  She shows up in the best races versus the best horses in the world.  She wins most, loses some but always shows up and runs with heart.  She is truly something spectacular.  Go large on another horse against her.  Chances are your money will be paid to the many who will back her to win.

15 Jun 2011 2:11 PM
calico cat

2:24

You're darn right about Goldikova! Well said. Some people are never happy. Sheesh!

15 Jun 2011 3:23 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

What do you think he was, tired or bored?  He might have opened up quickly on the field, but maybe it was at a time when the field hadn't really started to make a move yet.  To me he looked tired and maybe struggling a bit.  Every once in a while a top horse will throw in a race like that and then rebound and be awesome.  I have no doubt Frankel will show his stuff in his next outing, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he'll get the classic distances or will he be  best at a mile.  Another thng, I don't know the splits of the race, but I believe CC's run was clsose to a second faster.  Maybe that is because they are older and maybe a lottle stronger.

15 Jun 2011 4:42 PM
LAZMANNICK

2:24

You're right when you say that Goldi's greatness can be measured on what she has accomplished both against males and at the mile distance.  She did step up in distance a couple of times, but was never as formidable at those distances as she was at the mile distance.

There are differences however when discussing Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef.  True, both were awesome, but I believe that Mill Reef had never won a race at a mile, though he did win several races at 6F and 7F.  He was better suited at longer distances and won at 10F, 11F, and 12F, with his lone try at a mile a second in the 2000 Guineas to against Brigadier Gerard.

Brigadier Gerard was a great miler, undefeated in 7 stakes tries at the distance.    He was also exceptional going longer being a perfect 5 for 5 at 10F and 1 for 1 at 12F.  To me their abilities at greater distances separate them from Goldi in terms of maybe being total package as opposed to being more one dimensional great.

15 Jun 2011 5:00 PM
Carlos in Cali

Why isn't First Dude entered in the Stephen Foster?..

I think Tapizar will be lights-out during the 2nd half of this season along with Bind if they both can get their heads right.

Zookeeper: That was a good learning experience for RunFlatOut,he should only get better as he learns to ration his speed. Will we see him back East this summer?..   The only spots for him in Cali is the Swaps then the turf races @ Del Mar.

15 Jun 2011 5:56 PM
Footlick

If I had to say, it looked like he was waiting on horses at mid stgraight, but was getting tired by the line.  whether he could have rebroke if needed can onlyu be conjectured.  Sir Henry is usually honest in his assessment of his horses, so I would take his word on it.  He also has said that he felt Frankel will get 10 furlongs but not 12.  He did go after his pacemaker prematurely, so premature moves usually make a horse tire at the end.  As far as the difference in times, Canford Cliffs race was on the straight and Frankel's was around one turn.  If I understood correctly, the turf was a little softer on th turning course than the straight.  Those two factors could result in the difference in time, but I'll wait and see the ratings also.  If all three come back for the Sussex, it will be quite a race.  I think Canford Cliffs connections are eying the BC Mile too.

15 Jun 2011 6:07 PM
Stevebiscuit

Hmmm, a California horse is being considered perhaps the best of the 3 year olds. How do you like them apples Draynay?! lol

15 Jun 2011 6:07 PM
Footlick

I have to agree with Laz.  Goldikova is a great horse, but she just cannot compare to Brigadier Gerard.  He is one of the all time greats period.  I have never considered Mill Reef, also one of the greats, a miler, so I would not compare Goldikova to him at all.  

15 Jun 2011 6:53 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Carlos in Cali

   I think he said First Dude will run in the HP Gold Cup but I'm not sure why he's choosing AW. Another very stute observation on you part concerning the summer races in Cali. There is no way I'd run on the Del Mar AW track either, with any horse. It's back East or the Del Mar turf. I would suspect that they would go back east if he shows an affinity for 9f. I think a 3yo has a good shot at winning the BC Classic this year. This is a good group, it's just that some of the top ones got injured or sick, and some are just starting to show their talent. I still love Animal Kingdom and Shackleford but for the BC Classic it's Animal, and I'd like to see Shackleford in the Dirt Mile although 10f is possible with a fast dry track like GP usually is when dry. The CD track was too deep and cuppy. He's not as much of a 10f as he is a mile to 9f. It remains to be seen if this 3yo group is as good as the last good group in 2007 but I think it's possible. If they can avoid off tracks in the rest of the big 3yo races we'll see some outstanding performances.

15 Jun 2011 8:41 PM
2:24

Laz and Footlick:  my bad regarding Mill Reef.  Agreed on Brigadier Gerard.  Not saying Goldikova is as good as BG.  Just saying in my opinion she is one of the all time greats and a throwback.

15 Jun 2011 9:39 PM
Bob from Boston

Dr. D... check.  mz, check.  Where is Ted from LA?????

15 Jun 2011 10:04 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Carlos in Cali

   That should read "astute" and "your" not "stute" and  "you". Was typing too fast and didn't proof read. Didn't want you to think I was referring to the trainer Stute. I was really looking forward to Bind, and I had entirely forgotten about Tapizar. He should be interesting. I love the addition of the 6f on dirt at BC for juv, colt and filly. Maybe now more will point to sprints where they belong before ruining them, but it is also a better starting point for many also rather than 8.5f as a 2yo.

15 Jun 2011 11:16 PM
mz

Anyone else remember Braulio Baeza stealing the Benson and Hedges from Brigadier Gerard with Roberto?  Shocker to all at the time.  And in light of his brilliance at a mile, sort of ironic that Brigadier Gerard's only classic winner was Light Cavalry (St. Leger!).

I'm thinking Frankel doesn't want anything over a mile -- at a mile, he seems brilliant but I'm really looking forward to Goldikova / Canford Cliffs/ Frankel later in the year to see how he actually shapes up.  He's gotta really want to look others in the eyes and keep going and I wasn't really impressed by his race.  (Does that make me a reverse band-wagonner?)

Also looking forward to the Queens Plate on the 26th to see if Check Your Soul might start a run on best 3YO [colt].  I still like Inglorious too.  Seems like it'll be a good race.

----

Congrats to all Bostonians.  As a Torontonian, I can only sigh with envy.  Someday, my Cup will come.

16 Jun 2011 12:02 AM
Splits of 12

Coil looked very good winning the Affirmed Handicap at Hollywood Park last weekend. He could be a star on the rise. In his previous race where he shot off like a cannon, and won by 5+ lengths he looked like something special. I must say it left me quite impressed. Besides perhaps Trappe Shot, Coil was the easiest single all weekend. He beat a nice horse in Runflatout. I think Baffert should run him next in the Swaps rather than the Dwyer. There's no need to ship him back east for a one-turn race. I think he'll get more out of the 9f of the Swaps. Hell then have three weeks til the Haskell, which should leave him primed for a

big run at the million dollar purse. Watch out for Jaycito! This Runnymede Farm bred son of Victory Gallop is one tough hombre. His dam Night Edition is a massive horse who just foaled a Proud Citizen filly. I forsee Jaycito having a big second half of the year. Especially since he didn't have to go through the rigors of the Triple Crown. I think he will be a sleeper and could also blossom into a very nice older handicap horse when he turns four. Only time will tell but it looks like Baffert has a couple of loaded guns in Coil and Jaycito.    

16 Jun 2011 12:13 AM
LAZMANNICK

2:24

Goldi is great for sure.  Just to be considered in the same breath as Brigader Gerrard and Mill Reef say loads.

16 Jun 2011 12:35 AM
Footlick

So You Think's race was very similar to Frankel's, except Frankel won.  They are both very pacey horses, but their connections had rabbits entered for both.  Both horses made premature moves in the race as a result of the use of a pacemaker.  Both didn't finish as strongly as you would have liked to see.  So You Think's former connections could not understand the use of a rabbit as they said he doesn't need one.  I think Frankel's connections wanted to see if he would rate behind horses, so they wanted to ensure a strong pace.  The problem with that is horses like Frankel and So You Think seem to want to be close to the pace, so eventually they will start pulling to go up with the leader.  I think Frankel would have been better served without the pacemaker.  So You Think as well.  

16 Jun 2011 10:31 AM
Ranagulzion

Dr Drunkinbum & Carlos in Cali,

It looks as if Bob Baffert is once again out to tag team Twirling Candy in the Hollywood Gold Cup by sending the two "Dudes" to that race.  It will be very interesting to see how TC copes with them this time around.  First Dude will definitely put up a more formidable challenge than in the Santa Anita Handicap and Game On Dude will be as tough as nails.

Bind is reportedly injured and out for the remainder of the season.  I fancy Dialed In to be stronger in the second half of the season along with Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.

The sprint division is going to really get hot with the likes of big bad Big Drama, Noble's Promise and the 3YOs, The Factor and Flashpoint.

Duke Of Mischief is my firm selection for the Stephen Foster.

16 Jun 2011 12:52 PM
Ranagulzion

Footlick,

I agree that Goldi shouldn't be compared with Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef but not because she's any less of an all time great.

It will be very interesting to me to see Frankel go 10 furlongs.  he's an exciting colt.

16 Jun 2011 12:56 PM
LAZMANNICK

mz

Someday your cup myight come, but will it ever runneth over.

Boston is the new city of champions with the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics and now the Bruins all winning the big one at least once in the past decade.

Oh well, at least Toronto did host a G20 Summit.  Boston never did.

16 Jun 2011 1:03 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranagulzion

   Very good point. The dynamics in the race will be very interesting to watch. My Setsuko is in there too so I say beware of the Chantal. All I ask for is a fair, safe race with no steward decision needed. It's good to see First Dude doing so well and I think he wil continue to be a formidable opponent. AW isn't dirt so I don't know what the Gold Cup will tell us about the Classic but I kind of hope TC is the BC favorite. So far I have no idea what will happen in the Gold Cup but it won't break my heart if TC wins it just for future betting purposes.

16 Jun 2011 2:10 PM
Carlos in Cali

Dr.Drunkinbum

Thanks for the info regarding First Dude.I agree with your post on 15 June 2011 8:41pm.Good stuff.

Ranagulzion

Thanks for the info regarding Bind,too-too bad! He must've got injured during his last race on Derby Day when Rosie practically had her feet on the brakes throughout... I hate it when they choke the run out of horses like that.

Stephen Foster: I'll play the longshot Worldly across the board,maybe he's finally turned the corner and will now live-up to his pedigree.He's in light and has multiple wins @ that track,so I'll also play him w/Giant Oak & the Zito horse(forgot his name).

16 Jun 2011 5:03 PM
Draynay

Equestrio wins by a nose over a hard charging Giant Oak.

16 Jun 2011 7:37 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranulgulzion

   I guess that means you think Trappe Shot will run in the BC dirt mile.

16 Jun 2011 8:26 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

After your disasterous day at Belmont on Saturday, do you want some of us to lend you some money so you can make that bet?

16 Jun 2011 9:59 PM
Ranagulzion

Dr Drunkinbum,

You guessed it right. The connections of Trappe Shot will not want to face Big Drama or The Factor at six furlongs and they'll be hoping that Tizway goes to the Breeder's Cup Classic instead of the Dirt Mile.  They'll still have their hands full trying to cope with Sidney's Candy although the latter could head for a rematch with Goldi on the turf.  Interesting days ahead my friend.

16 Jun 2011 10:55 PM
Draynay

Laz, lol.  I am still licking my wounds from Saturday.  However, I feel Regal Ransom is a bad bet for the win here.  Regal had a dream trip last time out and is 0 for 3 at Churchill.  Equestrio has a win at Churchill and has only raced 7 times so he is still improving.  His first race at 1 1/8th was a winner and I expect him to improve 2nd off the layoff and with a move forward he should be tough to handle down the lane.  Will Giant Oak catch him ?  Maybe if he is focused but the horse seems to be wondering a bit lately.  I should get 10 to 1 on a horse that finished behind Regal Ransom by 10 inches last time out.

17 Jun 2011 12:02 AM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- I don't want to open a can of worms about Goldikova.  I feel she is great, but her longevity has made her legend.  I cannot put her as an all-time great based on longevity.  I can say she is a great filly/mare.  But if you had to use Paco Boy s a yardstick, she would fall well short.  Just my opinion.

On Frankel- it will be interesting to see if they really will stretch him out this year, or if they will point him to the Sussex and meet Canford Cliffs and hopefully Goldikova.  If they let him run next year, they can stretch him out then.

17 Jun 2011 12:54 AM
Mary Zinke

If I picked Equestrio over Giant Oak, I might add Duke Of Mischief and Mission Impazible to round out my top four. Instead, I'm going with Apart, Mission Impazible, Giant Oak.  Good luck to Equestrio. I hope he doesn't drift out, putting it mildly, and cause an accident.

17 Jun 2011 12:22 PM
Householder

Coil...He was my top pick before the Derby.  I hope Baffert ships to the Haskell.  Point Given was meant to go long!

Another promising 3 year old is Sarah's Secret a half sister to Animal Kingdom.  Kathy Walsh had her where she should be, on the turf, in the Honeymoon Handicap on the stretch out.  She's undefeated.

How about this Vanity?  I seem to recall Blind Luck winning the Hollywood Starlet by 7 and Switch giving Zenyatta's camp some fits over that surface.  

17 Jun 2011 1:50 PM
2:24

Footlick - not trying to open up a can of worms either but I think longevity is certainly a factor in considering a horse's greatness.  Horses such as Kelso, Forego and John Henry were brilliant many different years but their longevity bumps them up a notch on all time lists, in my opinion.  And I think rightfully so.  Now, I was probably pushing it when comparing Goldikova to Brigadier Gerard.  But, in my opinion, her longevity should be a plus factor in her rating, especially because she consistently runs against top-flight competition.

I think you can also argue that staying around and not matching your initial brilliance can hurt your legacy.  Take Citation for instance.  He is pretty much recognized as the 3rd best North American horse of all time.  If he retires after his three year old season and doesn't come back at five after injury to lose three times to Noor, it would have been tough to argue that he wasn't the greatest of all time.  Some people believe that is true anyway and his 5 year old campaign was still excellent.

17 Jun 2011 1:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

2:24

I agree, longevity has to count for something, as long as you continue to win.

17 Jun 2011 2:59 PM
LAZMANNICK

2:24

I also forget to mention that when Citation came back at five after a 13 months layoff, he won his first race back which was the 16th win in his 16 consecutive win streak.  

17 Jun 2011 3:02 PM
Footlick

2:24- we each have our own opinion.  If Goldikova was giving away the amounts of weight that Forego, John Henry and Kelso were, I would give more credence to the longevity, because giving away huge amounts of weight to top talent played a big part in all three of their legends.  But Goldikova is not giving weight.  And that Paco Boy was giving her weight all last year and just missing tells me alot.  Would you consider him one of the all-time great milers?  She is great, but just because she has run longer should not peanalize the more brilliant fillies/mares who have run before her but did not have her longevity.  But, it is just my opinion and I really don't want to prolong this as I know my opinion is not the popular one and I really don't want to keep trying to defend my stance.  

17 Jun 2011 3:24 PM
Footlick

I didn't want to come off like I didn't want any comments.  Just that I probably won't respond to them.  But comment all you want if you want.  Sorry for how the last part of my post sounded.

17 Jun 2011 9:16 PM
LAZMANNICK

Footlick

I always value your opinions much more so than most.

17 Jun 2011 10:34 PM
Footlick

Thanks Laz.

17 Jun 2011 11:37 PM
tcc

Jason:

After bleeding in the Kentucky Derby, Pants on Fire is scheduled to run in the Pegasus, at Monmouth on 6-18, race# 10, as a prep for the Haskell.

18 Jun 2011 1:21 AM
mr pibb

draynay, best stick to betting the chalk. At least you win 1 out of 15 then. See what happens when you pick an Equestrio? 9th place finish. Nice pick!!

20 Jun 2011 12:39 PM

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