Are you an actual voter Jason?

...And a Special Eclipse Award for Rapid Redux!!!

Have a Happy and Healthy New Year!!!

Acclamation had FIVE Graded stakes WINS on 2 surfaces at multiple distances...he's tied for #1 on the American Graded Stakes Standing with HDG and Never Retreat, poor NR, totally forgotten this year.

Hansen...he BEAT Union Rags (who I'm crazy about) but a win is a win is a WIN over "shoulda-woulda-coulda...poor, wide trip whining is outcome based cry-baby stuff...pbbblt.

Happy New Year! ☺

WRONG!!! HANSEN IS THE CHAMP......ITS OVER...RAGS WONT WIN IT.

I'll admit Hansen is a grand colt & ran an outstanding race in the Juvenile Colts, but all you have to do is look at the tape of the race to realize that if Union Rags had had someone like Calvin Borrel in the saddle he would have won going away. He didn't lose; his jockey did and shouldn't be allowed on the colt again. That's my opinion for what it's worth.

Acclamation is the best of an awful group in California, maybe the connections knew he wasnt good enough after finishing last at Charlestown of all places. Acclamation's 5th and Last place finishes dont flatter when Eclipse award ballots come in, Acclamation's people will walk away with nothing due to ducking the top turf races in the United States.  Glad that Cape Blanco's people were brave enough to come over.  

Hansen is a nice horse but winning lower tier races during the season and showing up on BC day to earn 1 nose victory of consequence does not a Eclipse award winner make.

Union Rags did more and ran in bigger more important races he gets the nod.

I like Union Rags for the preps next year and believe him to be better over a distance,but Hansen beat him fair and square he therefore deserves the award hands down.

Happy New Year to you Jason: you're a jolly good fellow.  Your blogs helped to make horseracing a lot of fun and catered to some very spirited debtates and informative discussions.  I like the look of your ballot and the rational thinking behind it. Bravo buddy!!!

Best wishes for the New Year to all my fellow blog posters: reading and interracting with your posts was enjoyable including the good, the bad and the ugly.

The 2012 season is eagerly anticipated if for no other reason than the expectation that the 34 years old Triple Crown drought will be broken by a super talented colt foaled in May that gave flashes of the brilliance (while repeatedly running green) that is to be unveiled when he comes of age on the first Saturday in May.  More anon.

Cape Blanco:  Horse of the Year.  HoG better than Blind Luck?    She didn't prove that when she had chance.  HOG needed to win BC convincingly.

Trainer of Year: Charles Lopresti

Breeder:  Airdrie

Owner:  Coolmore

Why don't we follow Jason's logic from years past? Let's see...Havre de Grace lost the Classic by 4 lengths, just like Zenyatta lost it by a head. Sounds like we have two SOYs, eh Jason? After all, you yourself said in your own Breeders Cup recap that "a loss is a loss" and "Havre de Grace is in the same class as Zenyatta". Or does your (il-)logic only work one way?

What a bizarre year!!! Only My Miss Aurelia and Cape Blanco were exceptionally superior in their respective groups. But you are right, Havre the Grace´s victory in the Woodward will make the difference at the end.

Havre De Grace is the best of an awful group in the east, maybe the connection knew that the weak Woodward just like in the 2009 was winnable. Hopefully another non classic distance horse wouldn't win Havre De Grace, the industry need not promote these weak 9 furlong horses. Blind Luck proved she was the better filly.

Two completely different situations Jacob, but I wouldnt expect you to understand with your blind loyalty to the Poly champ.

Really people, get on some antdepressants or something. She lost one race and its been over a year. Life goes on.

Game on Dude nearly won the most important U.S. race of the year, after leading at every call and turning back East Coast superstars like Uncle Mo, Havre de Grace, and Stay Thirsty. And then there's Amazombie. Yeah, AAF, those California horses are awful.  Once again, another post from you that displays your ignorance and bias.  Thanks for participating.

Hansen a two time winner at 8.5f had the most going against him of him and Rags. He stepped up on a biased track and won. UR is a horse that can be placed anywhere. That day mid pack, and being there you have to expect trouble or wide. He was wide but had a clear trip, getting to rate off Hansen who was pressed the entire way around. He took his shot and couldn't get by. Hansen is 3 for 3, got his grade one against the best of his division and has another stakes to his credit. He is your top 2yr old.

Game on will probably get the Older Male, but Acclamation deserves a strong look. He beat Game on in the PC as he did TC. He had an outstanding year in a year with no stand out. And I believe that Gio won in 09, the Older Male Eclipse, having never won a grade one on anything but turf.

Agree almost in everything except in older horse and two year old colt divisions. Acclamation or Cape blanco should be the main contenders for the first category

Lets face the records:

Acclamation won 3 G1 races going different distances and different surfaces: Charles Whittingham Mem. H.[G1,Hol,10FT] for the second year in a row, the Eddie Read S.[G1,Dmr,9fT] and the prestigious Pacific Classic S.[G1,Dmr,10f]. plus he also won the Jim Murray H.[G2,Hol,12FT], also for a second year in arrow and the Clement L Hirsch Turf Chp. S.[G2,SA,10FT].

In those races he defeated the high touted Game on dude and also G1 victors Twirling candy, Champ Pegasus and. Haimish hy.

Cape blanco also have 3. G1 races to his credit, all in turf but going different distances. He won the Man o' War S. (USA-G1,Bel, 11fT), Arlington Million (USA-G1,AP,10fT), Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (USA-G1,Bel,12FT).

In those races he defeated two-time Eclipse turf champion Gio Ponti and. G1 victors. Wigmore hall. Winchester and Mission approved.

Classy Game on dude has two G1 victories to his credit, both on dirt. He won the Santa Anita H. (G1,SA,10F), Goodwood S. (G1,SA,9F).

He ran second to Drosselmeyer in the Bc Classic .

Despite running second in the. Bc. Classic, he defeated likely 2011. Horse of the year. Havre the grace in that race (just to reinforce the lack of any standout this season). During his 2011 campaign he defeated G1 winners. Twirling candy. First dude, Awesome gem and Brazilian G1 victor Pode ir.

If would be up to me,. I will give the champion turf horse to. Cape blanco just because he won three. G1 races over turf surfaces and because he excelled in his performances.

The champion older horse title should be given to. Acclamation, by the fact he won 3. G1 races going different distances and beating Game on dude and several others.

Good luck to all this deserving contenders.

on the 2yo division, Hansel should be named champion. He won for impressive margins before holding off the undefeated Union rags in the Bcj to remain himself undefeated. No more comments.

by the way, hoy honors should be given to a racehorse that proved to be the best of the best, and not the best of the rest. in this line, should note that my miss aurelia is one of a couple of racehorses this year to have prove that. but taking eclipse awards history as a pointer, would be enough for me to see her nominated in that category, along cape blanco, havre the grace and acclamation, even the winner result in one of the latest three.

Horse of the Year: Havre de Grace (Concur)

Older Male: Acclamation - He contested four Gland won three including a victory over Game on Dude, Twirling Candy, Jeranimo, Caracortado and Champ Pegaasus.  Acclamation is probably the only older horse that won three consecutive Gl races. Game On Dude contested five Gl races and won two. He was defeated by First Dude, Duke Of Mischief and the grandfather of older horses Awesome Gem. He was beaten by a 9YO and he is now being selected for an eclipse award.

Older Female: Blind Luck: If HDG gets the HOY award then she certainly deserves the one in this category

Three-Year Old Male: Shackleford. He is the modern day iron horse. He defeated nine G1 winners and was the only horse to finish ahead of the 2011 Derby winner in the Preakness. He earned a cheque in every Triple Crown race including the big one in the Preakness. He has the distinction of either defeating or finishing ahead of every top/leading 3YO including Caleb’s Posse. His only negative in the win department and some of his losses are as good as wins. I cannot recall a colt in recent history that has displayed such toughness, heart and consistency. Caleb’s Posse was not good enough to earn his way into the Derby and chose not to participate in either the Preakness or Belmont. In short, his connections avoided the ultimate test for 3YOs because he was not good enough. How can he now be crowned a champion over those that have laid their bodies down in the ultimate test?  

Three-year-old Female: Royal Delta (Concur)

Two-year-old Male: Hansen. What were the challenges facing Hansen heading into the Gl BCJ? First graded race; First start on dirt; BCJ field included five Gl winners, two Gll winner, one Gll winner and four graded place finishers; He and Alpha were the least experienced with only two previous starts. The only other colt that had no graded experience was Speightscity. Hansen made ever y post a winning in spite of the aforementioned challenges he faced.  He showed a lot of heart to repel Union Rags in deep stretch. The focus has been on Union Rags poor trip and what is perceived to be a poor ride. Only few seemed to recognize the challenges Hansen overcame on road to his victory. The wide trip Union rag experienced is pale in comparison the challenges Hansen overcame. Champions always find a way to win in spite of adversities. Hansen met that burden and Union Rags did not. There can be no doubt as to who is the champion 2YO. (No excuses allowed)

Two-year-old Female: My Miss Aurelia (Concur)

Turf Male: Cape Blanco (Concur)

Turf Female: Stacelita (Concur)

Male Sprinter: Amazombie (Concur)

Female Sprinter: Musical Romance

Trainer: Bill Mott: On the biggest race day Mott used Royal Delta to defeat Baffert’s, Oaks winner in the Ladies Classic and Drosselmeyer to defeat his top Gl horse Game On Dude in the BCC. To Honor and Serve destroyed a G1 field in the Cigar mile after his 31/2l loss in the BCC. The factor was MIA in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

Ranagulzion

The horses below are ranked in the top ten in the world. They are not in the order of their ranking:

Black Caviar

Danedream

Nathaniel

Rewilding

So You Think

Frankel

Excelebration

What do they have in common? The answer should make you start saving toward a mega wager for the 1st Saturday in May. They were all sired by Northern Dancer line stallions. Well the secret is out; Union Rags will be the next Triple Crown winner in Britain as there is no Triple Crown on turf in the US. On a more serious note, you should be very happy for this bit of information for whatever its worth.

A happy New Year to all! May the races be competitive and the winnings be numerous.

I disagree with three year old male of the year Hansen won the biggest race of the year defeating his rival he is undefeated his rival is not. I don't understand how you wouldn't vote for him.

Happy New year to all,Jason i agree with you they should drop the Zenatta BS,it's done it's over.However i don't agree with you on your bias of Union Rags,he's a very nice horse the owners are sitting on a bomb for next year,but Hansen smoked him in the BC and as you say a win is a win and i agree with that part of it .

 Nice blog Jason.  I agree with all but Union Rags as my vote would go to Hansen.  This year would not have been anywhere near as cool without you providing us all with this forum to voice our opinions and rants.  Thank you for that.  HAPPY NEW YEAR to Jason and all of the other Jasonites.  2012 is going to ROCK!!!

Alex, I don't see how you can penalize Acclamation for his race on a sloppy bullring, his first start on an off track. The jock took care of him after it was clear he wasn't handling the track. And the field that he beat in the Pac Classic included Game on Dude, who nearly won the BC Classic. It's too bad he got hurt in the fall, but since he wasn't eligible to run in the BC, it was unlikely he'd have shown up. (The steep supplementary fees are one reason the BC races can't be taken as definitive championship deciders, IMHO. Not all the best horses were bred by those with national ambitions for their foals and money to spare for early nominations.)

No one loves Blind Luck more than me but this year it was one win each for each filly so how that makes Bl better I really do not understand..they were both super horses this year so Grace gets the nod as she did take on the males and won one and lost another but she did show up each and every race.My Miss and Royal Delta I don't think anyone would argue about and I like Cape Blanco and Amazombie where you placed them..it starts to get a bit muddled for me after that with no clear standouts..a tie with the two year old males as I see Hansen and Union Rags as super talented..Hansen did beat him but the quality of the fields does count when it is a close call like this one.Havre de Grace has it sewn up and I also do not understand why comparisons to Zenytatta always come into the conversation.. The endless Zenyatta comparisons are just that endless..can we all move on please!

Jason,

It's not asking much of a so-called "journalist" to at least be consistent and not take two blatantly contradictory positions (based on your own words, that I quoted verbatim) in two consecutive years. I knew your inconsistencies would catch up up sooner or later: what goes around, comes around. Ignoring my arguments and playing "shoot the messenger" doesn't change that one iota.

    By the way, do you still have your win ticket on Havre de Grace from the Classic? You might get 25 cents for it on Ebay...

While having a thought for the Triple Crown, it seems to me that Hansen has the better breeding for the distance than Union Rags, who I also feel is tops.  I echo the refrain, "cudda, shudda, wudda".  Hansen won the BC J.

I simply cannot differentiate between the accomplishments of HDG from Blind Luck.  Neither gets HOY on that basis alone.  Game On Dude's run in the BCC was exceptional, and I'm more likely to lean in his favor for HOY.  But then, I have to consider the G1's of Acclamation, but he simply didn't show up for the big dance.

I still believe Rapid Redux merits special attention at the Eclipse awards.  I like Caleb's Posse for 3 year old, but Animal Kingdom did take home the premier Derby, and ran well in the other 2 legs of the TC.  I think he'll have his chance next year.  The other categories seem appropriate but you also have to consider other trainers like Mott and Aidan O'Brien who did very well with the BC and Cape Blanco.

I have no idea what nonsense you are talking about Jacob. Nobody does. Havre de Grace will win HOY in a landslide. Who else would it be? You obviously don't know horse racing even a little.

Your New Year's resolution should be to pick a new sport to follow. Softball perhaps?

The excuses being advanced for Union Rages loss to Hansen continue to be laughable.  Supporters of Union Rage have highlight that he had a wide trip and was in receipt of a poor ride. The wide trip is verifiable. However, the poor ride is a matter of opinion. The colt lost by a HD while drifting in deep stretch. A wide trip and a poor ride did not prevent Union rags from finishing ahead of four G1 winners, two Gll winners, one Glll winner and four graded place finishers. These issues did not prevent him from finishing ahead of 11 other colts/geldings but it prevented him from finishing ahead of one. The supporters of Union Rags cannot have it both ways.

His impressive victories in the Saratoga Special and Champagne do not collectively equate to Hansen’s victory in the BCJ. Hansen’s victory in the BCJ was achieved against the best 2YO colts/geldings in the US and two European invaders. (Four G1 winners, two Gll winners, one Glll winner and four graded place finishers) The Saratoga Special and Champagne Stakes field were nowhere near the quality or toughness of the BCJ field. I challenge any supporter of Union Rags to rebut this cold fac. I hope this will put to rest the indefensible conclusion that Union Rage deserves to be voted Champion 2YO.

Coldfacts: Yes, you've just convinced us all. The Eclipse voters have all read your argument and have decided you are always right--except when it comes to picking winners.

HAPPY NEW YEAR Jason and fellow bloggers!

Good write up here sound cases for each of your picks.

I do prefer Acclamation for OM he did more and the head to head has him over Game OD

Hansen over UR but I certainly can see Rags on top here.

My Miss A does own the 2 year old filly title but, can I say how much I do like promissing Filly Now I Know, smoking work today she looks ready to advance.

Have a safe New Year everybody!

Agree with others here:  Acclamation for Older Male PERIOD! If everyone wants to reward Cape Blanco for his turf record here, that's fine, but to not give Acclamation an Eclipse award would be the worst kind of injustice! His record is better than Havre de Grace's for pete's sake!  Equal in graded stakes and Grade 1s!  She has never - that's NEVER - won at the 1 1/4 mi Classic distance, although I certainly give her credit for the times she has tried and failed! She is at best in the "none of the above" qualify, so it falls to her.  Older Female is more appropriate for her, IMHO, but since NOTA can make a case for HOY, then I can see the rationale of giving it to her and will applaud loudly as she strikes a blow for the ladies with the unprecedented third straight year that a female gets the big award.

If we are handing out awards because "they tried so hard", then Shackleford deserves an honorable mention!

The Older Male award does NOT EXCLUDE horses running primarily on turf, and certainly his Pacific Classic 1 1/4 mi at the distance has to count for something!  His 5 -- THAT'S 5 -- GRADED STAKES -- and THREE GRADE 1s have to be recognized as a significant achievement!!!  What more does a horse have to do to get someone's attention!!

One thing I'm very happy about is there will be some new voters with the addition of the Broadcasters to the mix.  This may help to introduce a fresh perspective!

P.S. I left out Blind Luck, and if Havre de Grace gets HOY, and it's a "slam dunk" as has been said, then Blind Luck is the Older Female.  She was the "iron lady" until her 22nd race -- only time she didn't finish ITM.

I could not find one disagreement with anything Coldfacts had to say.  Very well put and his reasoning made a lot of sense to me.  

AAF

As usual attempting to mask your silly prediction of "Grace winning by three" by slamming CA horses as  a sad attempt to erase what didn't work out for you.

Acclamation for OM and Blind Luck for OF, but otherwise I agee with you Jason. Havre de Grace deserves HOTY for sure. Blind Luck needs to be acknowledged somehow. As for Rapid Redux, they need to honor him with something. Think outside the box Eclipse Committee please. If you want to vote for Rapid Redux for Vox Populi go to Penny Chenery's Secretariat site. He is one of the nominees. Also, go to his Facbook page. He is trying to get more "likes." Stop laughing at me Jason. I can hear you all the way in Georgia :). Hope you had a nice vacation. Looking forward to next year. Happy and Healthy New Year to everyone!

If I had a vote for two year old it would be for Hansen. He was undefeated and did beat Union Rags straight up on Breeder's Cup Saturday. I also understand the argument for Union Rags to win. Two graded victories including a great Champagne. If he wins(and he just might) I will not be upset. I think Animal Kingdom over Calebs Posse just he graded victories were much better than CP. HOY Havre the Grace because she had a great older female campaign where she also beat the boys.

Have a happy new year!

Jason what happened to the Rapid Redux for HOY campaign?!?

In all seriousness though I like this list alot, Game on Dude deserves older male, this horse has some nice wins this season, and I think his gutsy performance in the BC classic showed how much heart he has.

I would actually give Hansen the nod for 2 year old male. He hadn't faced anything close to what he faced in the BC juvy in his first two races. So I was really impressed by his ability to take such a big leap in class and win, with Union Rags bearing down on him. Regardless of who wins champion 2 year old, we will really know who the best horse is in this crop is when they settle it on the track as 3 year olds. :)

Happy New Years everyone!! :)  

Welcome back Jason! I hope you had a good vacation!

Here's who I would vote for in the Eclipse Awards:

Horse of the Year: Acclamation

Older Male: Acclamation

Older Female: Havre de Grace

3yo Male: Caleb's Posse

3yo Female: Royal Delta

2yo Male: Union Rags

2yo Female: My Miss Aurelia

Turf Male: Cape Blanco

Turf Female: Stacelita

Male Sprinter: Amazombie

Female Sprinter: Sassy Image, unless Turbulent Descent should win the La Brea Stakes this afternoon.

Trainer: Graham Motion

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey

Apprentice Jockey: Rosario  Montanez

Steeplechase Horse: Tax Ruling

-Keelerman

My three choices for HOY:

1) A horse called Vacant.  IMO there really isn’t a worthy candidate for HOY.

2) Cape Bianco – Three G1’against the so called best America had to offer was to me by far the best resume.

3) Acclamation – Three G1 victories and two at the classic distance.

That said, Havre de Grace will probably win it because of her win against a ???? field in the should soon be downgraded to G2 or G3 status Woodward.  The real test, the BCC, the one that she wasn’t good enough to even threaten in and the one that was needed in my opinion for her to garner HOY, she was an also-ran non-factor.  BTW, I wonder how Raped Redux would have done in that Woodward.

Coldfacts,

There are two ways to look at the 2YO champinship contest.  You and a few others have enunciated it well: that Hansen won the BCJ fair and square. I have no quarrel with that.  However you have to weigh all the positives of both colts against each other. Union Rags ran at Delaware Park, Saratoga, Belmont and Churchill Downs, four different tracks, with distinction against far superior opposition each time. His very narrow loss in the BCJ, due to greeness (he's a May foal) should not cost him the championship in a worthy campaign.  His worthy opponent Hansen ran on two tracks, Turfway and Churchill Downs and could be considered fortunate to hold off a wayward running Union Rags.  It is true that Hansen did nothing wrong but regarding the championship, Union Rags overall body of work should eclipse his rival. A short-head loss in this context should not be penalised.  From my perspective, to win the championship Hansen should've done more on the track or won by a wider margin.

I just rebutted your arguments without the use of emotive language such as the one I'm quoting from you: "The excuses being advanced for Union Rages loss to Hansen continue to be laughable."  Let's see whose perspective prevails with the voters.    

So the Northern Dancer line stallions are the ones we should look for to sire the 2012 Kentucky Derby.There are probably only two other sire line stallions that are prominent as sires in the Derby.Out of the nominations does any one know how many fall into the Northern Dancer sire line.Rags was good LAST year, this is a new year coming up,lets see how he does before fitting him for the crown.I am of the opinion that the 2012 Derby winner is a colt that is not that well known yet.

NEWS FLASH! HANSEN will win the award.....It doesnt matter who is best......Hansen finished 1st...The other races were these things called "preps"......the "championship" race is the cup! Is it really that hard for you people?    And for the hundredth time, ZENYATTA won because she was a girl! Thats how you can lose and win the award.........why cant you people use common sense? union rags wont win it......impossible to vote for him

When is HANSEN going to get the respect he deserves?

HANSEN HANSEN HANSEN.

How is Havre De Grace the "best of the group" if she had absolutely no excuse for losing the Classic? She ran against one of the weakest Classic fields in history never threatened. Better year? Perhaps, though it seems that this year you aren't putting as much weight on victories in open races. How convenient! Best horse? Not even close. Havre De Grace wasn't even the best older female to run this year, Blind Luck was. Grace's biggest win the year was the Woodward, which is now only a prep for the Classic. She took the whole Saratoga stretch to run down Rule. Forgive me if I'm not impressed, but I'm not. After seeing the quality of horses that have run in the Woodward the past few years they should probably downgrade it to a grade 3. Grace isn't getting any eclipse awards for being the "best horse". Both of her eclipse awards fell right into her lap due to injuries, retirements and overall lack of quality horses this year. Of course, if HOTY always went to the best overall horse, Zenyatta would have won it 3 times, not just once and had she returned this year she would have trounced this group with ease. Even Jason seems to be slowly learning that the best horse doesn't always win, hence his picking Union Rags over Hansen. If the voting were for best horse in each division it would be as follows:

Older Male- Game On Dude- beat just about every division leader this year

Older Female- Blind Luck- Grace was fortunate she retired early

3 year male-Caleb's Posse- beat older males at a mile

3 year old female- Royal Delta- no explanation needed

2 year old male- Union Rags- perhaps finally proved to Jason that even the best horses can lose due to poor trip.

2 year old female- My Miss Aurelia- undefeated BC winner, doesn't get much better than that

Turf Male- Acclamation- all Cape Blanco ever faced was a 2 years past his prime Gio Ponti and barely beat Dean's Kitten who got trounced in the Breeders Cup Turf. Meanwhile, Acclamation beat better horses and in more impressive fashion. He was easily the best turf male.

Turf Female-Stacelita- her BC is a toss

Male Sprinter- Amazombie- proved himself the best American sprinter in the Breeders Cup.

Female Sprinter- Musical Romance- unlike Turbulent Descent, she beat older horses sprinting.

Horse Of The Year- Game On Dude- had it not been for the tiring conditions of the track that day, I have no doubt Game On Dude would have won. He shrugged off all challenges except one in the Classic and proved he had the heart of a champion. Much like in 2010, change the venue of the race and the runner up would surely have won.

Hopefully 2012 is a better year with no overhyped false prophets (ie Havre De Grace, Uncle Mo). As of right now the horse to watch on the Derby trail is Liaison. I won't pull a Draynay and declare him the next Secretariat, but I do believe of all the 2 year olds this year, he has shown the most promise. With Baffert at the helm, he's got a great shot at being in peak form by the time the Kentucky Derby rolls around.

Really Union Rags is the better colt.  Hansen obviously cannot be rated, so that will be a serious problem for him as a 3 year old.  IMO Hansen will have a problem with the longer distance.  Union Rags has the pedigree to run all day long; Hansen's pedigree suggests that he is a sprinter.

I love them both, but Union Rags has the conformation of his great great grandsire, Secretariat.  If they meet again, Hansen will not look Union Rags in the eye.  Union Rags, with his three white socks, like Secretariat, is an amazing horse.    

Ranagulzion, my sentiments exactly.  Hansen has a front running style, which some consider to be a flaw, i.e inability to rate.  Union Rags beat far superior horses on three different tracks.  I forgot that Union Rags was a late foal, so what he has accomplished is extraordinary.  Michael Matz said that Union Rags is a very intelligent and sweet natured horse.  He doesn't like to be alone; he loves to watch the other horses training.    

I wouldn't mind seeing some kind of mention or nod to Rapid Redux at the Eclipse Awards. Regardless of the level he raced at, he went where no other modern day horse has gone.

Speaking of the modern day, it would be fitting if there was mention made of the passing of Jess Jackson at the Eclipse Awards. Three Horse of the Year awards in a row. That is pretty amazing stuff and won't soon be repeated or forgotten. When was the last time that was done? Calumet? He spends his life making a gazillion dollars at all kinds of other stuff, but decides to tinker around with racing as a senior citizen and takes the fans on the ride of their lives. Walking around and having dinner in Saratoga after Rachel's historic Woodward Stakes victory we found the entire town abuzz with what that filly did that day. That's all anybody was talkin' about. The locals said it was the first time that they could actually hear the thunder of the racetrack crowd all the way to downtown Saratoga. I had the great good fortune to be standing right at the rail at the finish line for the big race which was no small feat considering that it took getting in line at 4 AM to do it. But so worth it. One of the highlights of my life. Of many lives probably. When that filly held on after the race she'd had, I felt like I had the wind knocked out of me, or more precisely, took a cannon ball to the gut. I'll never forget it as long as I live. And Curlin. Curlin. Curlin had me at hello. Or more precisely at the post parade for the KY Derby which was the first time that I laid eyes on the mighty Curlin. Followed every race, and workout, and bath for the remainder of his career. Made it to Saratoga for his Woodward and treasure my pics of him in the winner's circle. One picture in particular has Curlin staring straight into Valhalla while the white haired man at his side gazes up at him. I will never forget the magnitude of love and devotion on that face. Fans everywhere owe Mr. Jackson so much. We just thrilled to the way that man tested and proved his horses. And here comes My Miss Aurelia taking her division by storm, really the only no brainer on the entire list of Eclipse Awards as our author so aptly put it. She was just so dominant in every race over some very very fine fillies. So his legacy continues. But my heart is just breaking that Mr. Jess Jackson did not live to see the foal sired by and out of his Horses Of The Year.

Mr. Sandler,

My post was not to appeal to the eclipse award voters. In the case of Union Rags and Hansen, the attempt to diminish/discredit Hansen’s victory with excuses for Union Rags’ loss cannot be justified when the colt facts are examined. I try to keep all participants in these discussions honest with perspectives that are not emotionally driven.

I do not focus on picking winner. There are too many variables in  thoroughbred racing for exclusive focus on a likely winner. I prefer to design a wager that cover most of variables and thus allow myself an opportunity to at least end up in a break-even position.

Ranagulzion,

It is unfortunate that you consider the term ‘laughable’ loaded language. Going forwards I will try to be more measured in my description of what is obviously emotional driven conclusion that excludes cold facts. In my attempt to comment on the positive advance in favor of Union Rags I hope you do not fine my point of emphasis loaded.

“Union Rags ran at Delaware Park, Saratoga, Belmont and Churchill Downs, four different tracks, with distinction against far superior opposition each time.”

Valid points! Racing at different tracks is a positive as horses are accustom to shipping and different surfaces. (It’s part and parcel of experience) Union Rage had this advantage over Hansen. Neither Union Rags nor Hansen was in a position to determine their opposition. Let’s use Derby preps as an example. There are several of those. One the first Saturday in May the quality of the fields faces in Derby preps are meaningless when the outcome of the derby is finalized. Animal Kingdom participated against possibly one of the weakest filed for a Derby preps. The last three furlongs for the Spiral was recorded 39 plus. He won the Derby and there are those that are convinced he is the top 3YO male. His competition leading up to the derby did not compare to that of many Derby entrants.  However, when he was lined up against the best field he faced, he rose to the occasion.  That’s what champions do. It cannot be disputed that the best field both colts faced was in the BCJ. One won the other lost. Union rage raced againts far superior opposition and would have been more battle ready than Hansen who faced primarily dogs.

“His very narrow loss in the BCJ, due to greenness (he's a May foal) should not cost him the championship in a worthy campaign”

Greenness has nothing to do with DOB. The 2009 Eclipse Champion 2YO Lookin At Lucky was a May foal and he was not considered green. The 2008 Canadian Champion 2YO Mine That Bird was also a May foal and he was not considered green. Union Rage showed a tremendous amount of maturity in his Champagne victory. He could hardly have been considered green. In fact he was very professional in that performance. Why is greenness being advanced a reason for his loss in the BCJ? The award is not based on sympathy and consequently the greenness point is invalid.

“His worthy opponent Hansen ran on two tracks, Turfway and Churchill Downs and could be considered fortunate to hold off a wayward running Union Rags.”

Schakleford my pick for Champion 3YO ran on seven different tracks.  I do not believe this is relevant in the voting. Champions make their own fortunes. Union Rage had several advantages over Hansen heading into the BCJ. Hansen cannot he held responsible for the more experienced Union Rags’ antics. It can be argued that Union Rags was fortunate that Hansen’s rider to not take him to the middle of the track instead on the dead rail. (It would not have been close)

“Union Rags overall body of work should eclipse his rival. A short-head loss in this context should not be penalized”

Union Rags body of work does eclipse that of his rivals. If his connections wanted him to win the eclipse award based on his body of work they should have kept him out of the BCJ.  What margin of defeat should attract a penalty in the context you referenced?

“From my perspective, to win the championship Hansen should've done more on the track or won by a wider margin.”

I refuse to enquire if you are being serious with the statement above. If my memory is correct Hansen won his two races preceding the BCJ by a combined 26 lengths. No other BCJ entrant boasted such a record. Should he have won those races by a combined wider margin? I guess he should have defeated Creative Cause by a bigger margin as well. (You should ask Mr. Shandler to delete this portion of your post)

I know you are a knowledgeable thoroughbred enthusiast and if not for this fact your poor attempt at a rebuttal would not be forgiven. I must concede you did not have much basis for same and consequently you must be given credit for effort.

Happy New Year to you Mr. Shandler, and to everyone on here.

My Hypothetical Ballot would be:

HOY: Havre de Grace; but by default, her no-show in the BC Classic was disappointing, but she's lucky Drosselmeyer caught the Dude, had Dude taken the Classic home, he would have taken this as well. Personally she wasn't as spectacular as Zenyatta or Rachel, she's certainly not in their class, and I'm highly ambivalent of her ability at 10f. Her campaign was far from perfect, I wish they prepped in a more inspiring race than the G3 Obeah, and she's lucky Blind Luck was in the G3 Azeri. But for now, by default, she is the HOY. However I certainly think Accalmation could be a finalist.

Older Male: Acclamation. I go by the whole more wins than losses, and he has it. Sure his Charles Town was pretty bad, but it was in the slop, and he really perked up after that. His win in the Pacific Classic gets it for him, giving him an impressive total of three G1 wins.

Older Female: Havre de Grace; I'd love to see Blind Luck win, as she bested her in the Delaware Handicap at the classic distance, let go that whole weight thing, clearly Delaware thought Grace could overcome anything. Unfortunately her one and only no show costs her. So gotta give it to Grace.

Turf Male: Toss up between Acclamation and Cape Blanco. Since I give Acclamation Older Male, Cape Blanco gets this. 3 G1 turf wins compared to Acclamation's 2 G1, and 2 G2. Neither faced extraordinary competition, Gio was past his prime. But Cape gets this one, bigger races, and Accalamtion's biggest win wasn't on turf, getting him Older Male.

Turf Female: Stacelita, but by default disappointingly. 2 nice G1s beat out Never Retreat, who needed the Matriarch to win this, and Dubawi Heights. Dark horse could be Sarah Lynx for her impressive win in the Canadian International vs. 15 males.

Sprinter: Amazombie. Sprint double of Ancient Title parlayed with BC Sprint, end of story. In addition to a nice overall year, Potrero Grande, Sunshine Sprint, and a terrible DQ in the L.A. Handicap, how he got DQ'd  for that excruciatingly minor infraction and Goldikova got away scot-free for mugging an entire field I'll never know.

Female Sprinter: I guess Musical Romance, since she was consistent all year in her sprint races, while Sassy Image and Hilda's Passion had a couple disastrous efforts.

3yo Male: I pick Shackleford. He showed up to all the big races and narrowly missed two big wins, the FL Derby and Haskell, which has he gotten them, would have undoubtedly clinched it for him. But he was consistent all year, and does have the nice Preakness score. Plus for some reason I can't back Caleb's Posse, or Animal Kingdom. Plus Stay Thirsty's form outside of NY loses it for him.

3yo Female: Royal Delta. Easy, won the showdown in the Ladies Classic, minus Zazu, and won the Alabama at the classic distance. I'll be rooting for her in Dubai.

2yo Female: My Miss Aurelia. Again won the showdown between her, Weemissfrankie, and Grace Hall. Easy choice. My 2nd pick here would be Stephanie's Kitten.

2yo Male: Hansen. Won it fair and square, and personally give all the excuses for Union Rags you want, if he was anywhere near as great as he was hyped up to be he would have won regardless of a wide trip. He had Hansen in upper stretch, and couldn't capitalize. Hansen gets it.

Trainer: Aiden O'Brien. I usually like to keep it American, as these are our awards, but his resume here was impeccable, winning or placing in many G1s and winning 2 BC races.

I usually just pick for the equine athletes, but Aiden O'Brien had a very strong year here, so he gets a hypothetical vote from me.

There's my hypothetical ballot. I hope 2012 is a lot more inspiring and gives us totally clear-cut winners.

Stevebiscuit,

Immediately below is an extract from your 31 Dec 2011 9:49 PM post

“As of right now the horse to watch on the Derby trail is Liaison. I won't pull a Draynay and declare him the next Secretariat, but I do believe of all the 2 year olds this year, he has shown the most promise.”

I find your conclusion surprising as Union Rage Creative Cause and Hansen have separated themselves from the pack. Liaison’s last of three consecutive victories was achieved in the Cash Call Futurity. I am of the opinion that the runner-up Rousing Sermon established himself as the better of the two. He was 10 lengths off the leaders up the back stretch; was angled eight to ten wide for clear passage; was last but one at the furlong pole and closed rapidly lose  by a 1/2L.

How can you consider a colt the most promising you have seen when another spots him 9-10 lengths up the back stretch and another 8 lengths on the turn and was still able to come within 1/2L of him at the line? Rousing Sermon closed an estimated 17 lengths on Liaison. You are a thoroughbred enthusiast and should able to give an objective answer to the following question. Who was more impressive, the victory or the vanquished?  

Liaison is a nice colt but to label him the most promising you have seen suggest you have blinded you eyes to the likes of Union Rage, Creative Cause and Hansen. A lot of questions will be answered in CA in the Sham Stakes. I made a tidy sum on Groovin Solo on Friday and it will be saved for wagering on him in the Sham. I hope the my other colt in CA (Out Of Bounds) is not entered.

NB: Take a look at Groovin Solo. His galloping action is similar to that of A P Indy. His pedigree profile is ideal for the Derby. His Sire Bob and John is grandson of Mr. Prospector

A whapping five grandsons of Mr. P have sired Derby winners. His dam is daughter of Preakness winner Summer Squall who was dam sire of Belmont winner Summer Bird. Summer Squall is the Northern Dancer broodmare line. His dam is also the dam of the Premier Pegasus.

Since I have a Euro bias, I think if I had a vote for HOY I would give it to Cape Blanco who shipped across the Atlantic 3 times and won 3 gr1's, two with relative ease and the third on an injured leg.  But I know he won't get the support.  I think Aiden O'Brien should be considered for Trainer of the Year.  Maybe he is finally figuring out which horses to send to America to race.  Also, let's not forget Hilda's Passion and Sassy's Image when discussing the Female Sprinter Eclipse.  

Mary,

I have noted your concurrence with my good pal Ranagulzion regarding Union Rags. I have outlined in previous posts the flaws in Ranagulzion’s rational for Union Rag’s selection for the eclipse award.

You noted that Union Rage is a late foal. I often wonder if this term should be used. Mares in their natural habitats foal in the spring and summer months. This is to avoid exposing their foals to the harsh winter months.  The month of May is therefore considered a normal one for foaling under natural circumstances.  Most if not all January foals and some February foal are products of man intervention in a mare’s reproductive cycle. I do not consider a May foal late. Northern Dancer whose influence rules supreme worldwide was a small May foal who set a stakes in the 1964 Derby. It took the great Secretariat to break his record.

To suggest Havre De Grace is in even the same zip code as Rachel, let alone Zenyatta, is a joke. Her 2011 success was derived from their retirements. Prediction, Grace won't face males next year and Jason will give her a pass.

rorschach1992, you are right about Aiden O'Brien. He showed up over here again and again, and won. I think if an overseas horse or trainer comes here, REPEATEDLY, it's as good as if they lived here and they deserve consideration. I think based on his record, he deserves the Eclipse for Trainer of the Year. If it was for just one or two races, I wouldn't feel that way. But he did more than that. So I am switching my vote from Baffert (who I love) to O'Brien.

Nice list, Jason. Several of these categories have no clear leader this year, so it's hard to argue with anyone's reasoning. The Union Rags/Hansen for 2-year old male is the most difficult to decide for me, but a bad ride doesn't really explain Rags' loss in the BCJ. Hansen had only two prior starts and ran on that dead peanut butter rail, and still managed to prevail. He's pretty gutsy--an alpha male, as Carlos in Cali says. For those of you who think Union Rags has a better distance pedigree, you might want to study the background on Dixie Union or read Porter on Pedigrees' analysis of Dixie Union foals.

Mary in VT---Loved your post. Curlin had me at hello, too, and Jess Jackson's passing does indeed merit a mention at the Eclipse ceremony.

Where are the comments at???  I guess everyone is still suffering from a hangover.   Happy New Year Everyone.

May 2012 bring us a Triple Crown winner!!!

Wishful thinking, Right?

Coldfacts, Rorschach1992, KY VET,

The BCJ is one race and that one race, albeit a very important race, does not trump an entire season of outstanding performances. In the very recent past Curlin and Zenyatta were voted champions inspite of losing their respective Breeder's Cup race. This year Havre de Grace's and Union Rags' superior season's performances deserve/merit similar consideration from voters, especially the latter who showed up big-time in three graded stakes races at different tracks. Thats the basis of my position.

Coldfacts,

Thanks for the information on the Northern dancer line top ten horses in the world. I'm convinced that the dominance of Northern Dancer will extend to North America in 2012. It should not be difficult to envision with the Dixieland Band branch giving us Union Rags and Currency Swap, the Danzig branch giving us Summer Front and Exfactor, the Storm Cat branch producing Creative Cause, Discreet Dancer and Sabercat, the Vice Regent(Deputy Minister) branch giving us Fort Loudon and the Saddlers Wells branch giving us O'Prado Again and Lucky Chappy. I'd say the writing is on the wall my friend.  

Here's a tip for your historical analysis: in the past whenever a new sire-line broke through in the Derby, the Raise A Native line was shut out for at least two years, hence, you need to look elsewhere in 2012. You should have no argument with a classic "coldfactism"

KINGCAPPER,

My touting the Northern Dancer line as the likely 2012 Derby-winner-producing sire line should help to narrow your betting options and provide you with a safer "hedging" wager in the Futures pool, don't you think? (LOL). Be my guest and go bet on an AP Indy line colt. Truth be told, your hedging philosophy points that way (riskier betting).

Happy New Year to all ...lots of fun in store this year.    

havre de grace should not be horse of the year because she was no threat to  win the classic and she didn't even conquer the female division. blind luck was still better than her in 2011 like she was in 2010.

drosselmeyer or game on dude should be hoy

Hansen, Game On Dude, Acclamation, Drosselmeyer, My Miss Aureila, Rapid Redux.

Throw their names in a hat, anyone would deserve Horse of the Year!

It really doesnt matter what you all say........i'm right! hdg will win hoy...calub top 3yr old....hansen 2yrold champ....youre argueing about nothing.....

GAME ON DUDE a champion? thats how bad the older horses were? bad ,bad division!  Its like argueing which of COLDCUTS posts are more STUPIDER!!!!!

KY Vet: More stupider? Dude, the first rule of ridiculing people is that you need to learn English first. Geez.

Agree with few exceptions.....Hanson should be somewhere....Union Rags will end up being horse of some distance.....I will take Musical Romance.......all those two year olds will face stiff competition as others grow up......and find themselves.

KY VET,

Have some more bubbly my friend!! Your spelling and grammar is getting better by the minute!

Happy New Year.  May 2012 be more compelling than 2011 on the track.  Jason's argument is that Havre De grace's body of work merits HOY as did Blame's.  That is cogent.  Drosselmeyer doesn't have any other major triumphs on his resume.  The shots at Zenyatta are unnecessary.  She was so much more than the "poly champ."  Blame beat her on the square and was a deserving HOY, but Zenyatta's legend is not tarnished.  I would encourage Jason not too sling mud back at those who respond to him with less than respectful or logical arguments.  It speaks to the old adage about wrestling with a pig.  We need every fan we can keep to follow this game and we need to nurture more.  Ugliness doesn't promote our sport.      

Coldfacts,

I felt that towards the end of the Hollywood Park meet there was a significant bias towards closers. I could be wrong, but I did very well betting-wise using that bias as a frame of reference. Rousing Sermon, who I'm also a fan of, looks promising but I feel Liaison is the more versatile of the two. If you watch the Real Quiet, RS has every chance to run by with plenty of momentum built up. But as soon as he caught Liaison's eye there was no way he was passing. In a race like the Derby, I prefer a horse that displays versatility and I think Liaison has plenty of it.

Now, I say Liaison is the most promising of the 2 year olds for a very good reason, he hasn't reached his peak. It happens year after year that we see a promising 2 year old that everyone gets all excited about who go on to do very little as 3 year olds. Would he have beaten Union Rags, Hansen, or Creative Cause in the BC Juvenile? Maybe, but probably not. My argument is that he has a better chance of developing into a superior 3 year old than the other two. It's not about who looks brilliant now, it's about the future. No trainer is better than Baffert at getting horses to make the transition from 2 to 3 and not peaking too early. I can't say the same about Pletcher. Aside from Street Sense, the BC Juvenile winner has been irrelevant in terms of Derby implications. The only other Triple Crown race winner was Timber Country. On the other hand, the Cashcall Futurity(or Hollywood Futurity) has seen the likes of Snow Chief, Ferdinand, Alysheba, A.P. Indy, Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, Point Given, Giacomo, Lookin At Lucky...etc, and due to its closer proximity to the Derby I place a lot more weight on it than the BC Juvenile.

Rousing Sermon looks like the real deal and who knows, maybe he'll mature into a better horse than Liaison, but as of now I give Liaison the edge to to his versatility and grit. But for all we know the 2012 Kentucky Derby winner is still a maiden.

Know that this blog is intended for discuss a different topic but here is my early 2012 Ky Derby dozen + 1:

01. Union rags

02. Hansen

03. Creative cause

04. Dullahan

05. Gemologist

06. O’prado again

07. Rousing sermon

08. Liaison

09. Sabercat

10. Motor city

11. Souper speedy

12. Brother Francis

13. Prospective

And keep an eye on these 3 fillies:

Grace hall

Stephanie’s kitten

My miss Aurelia

seems possible that a filly takes on the boys in this year kydby???

Jason,

I don't care if you post this or not, but just know that you missed the whole essence of what I was saying. My argument had NOTHING to do with Zenyatta: the fact that she just happened to run in one of the years that I cited as an example is completely beside the point.

I was arguing that the 2011 race for Horse of the Year was/is being looked at differently than it was in 2010 (for instance), so what better way to compare the two years than two compare their respective HOYs? I could've just as easily compared Havre de Grace and Rachel Alexandra, or HDG and Azeri, HDG and Regret if I thought it would've illustrated my point.

KY VET,

Older horses bad bad bad...true I agree...who the heck did Havre de Grace beat in the Woodward...(should be grade 2)...yes bad bad bad horses...that is why Havre winning HOY is another farce...

Cape Blanco or Acclamation makes more sense....

Lava'sStilltheMan

There's lots of mud in the east this year.  Some people just like to play in the mud and fling it.

Jason, whether KY VET'S grammar is spot on or not, I always understand his point and often agree with it. Jacob Bratcher, while I agree with Jason that HDG should be HOTY, I got your point too. Lava'sStilltheMan, got your point too. We do need people in this sport. Whether to go to the races and bet, bet online, or support retirement homes for the horses, it is all important. So are provocative blogs that make you think and learn. It's all good.

liaison was born on march 18, 2009  he is the second oldest of the top 3 year olds (aries=rash).

the liaison born in may was the son of arch, was french, and was born in 2006.

union rags is the oldest of the top 5--march 3, 2009 (picses = wishy washy).

hansen is the youngest--april 23, 2009 (taurus=tenacious).

creative cause (april 6=aries)and saber cat (april 8=aries)are between rags and hansen.

dullahan is the closest to being a true 3 year old--he's a february colt.

Happy 2012 everyone! And become Jan 1 is the Birthday for all Thoroughbreds, Happy Birthday to all the ponies!

Horse of the Year: Havre de Grace

Older Male - Acclamation / Tizway/ Game on Dude

This is hard. Acclamation has the Charles Whittingham, Eddie Read, and Pacific Classic under his belt. Tizway the Met Mile and the Whitney, and Game on Dude the Santa Anita Handicap and Goodwood. Any one of these horses deserves it.

Won Santa Anita H. (G1,SA,10F), Goodwood S. (G1,SA,9F)

Older Female - Havre de Grace

Three Year Old Male - I like Caleb's Posse or Animal Kingdom. Of course maybe it is not enough that AK didn't race past June (not his error), however he did win the Kentucky Derby and showed up to be beat by a nose in the Preakness. He beat six grade one winners in the Derby. Caleb's Posse of course won his Grade Ones this year.

Three Year Old Female - Royal Delta (who else?)

Two year old Male: Torn between Hansen and Union Rags, however Rags's Champagne and effort in the Juvenile gets him my vote.

Two year old Female - My Miss Aurelia

Turf Male: Cape Blanco off his three grade ones in which he bested Gio Ponti, etc. in all of those.

Turf Female: Stacelita

Male Sprinter: Amazombie

Female Sprinter: Musical Romance

Trainer: although I like Baffert and would not be disappointed to see him get it, I want to say kudos to Aiden O'Brien. He started 22 horses, won 7, 1 place and 2 show for $4,411,315. Those seven wins were all grade one with five different horses, winners of the Arlington Million (Cape Blanco), Joe Hirsch (Cape Blanco), Man o' War (Cape Blanco) Secretariat (Treasure Beach), Breeders Cup Turf (St Nicholas Abbey), Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (Wrote), and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland with Together. Cape Blanco was shipped to the US for each of his victories. I hope Aiden gets some recognition for his training job this year.

Not sure on the other awards yet...

If My Miss Aurelia keeps the way she goes, I could see her in the Derby.

Apriority looked like he ran well in the Mr. Prospector, can't wait to see him in 2012 as well.

I see Morning Line is back on the work tab

Lisa T. (half sis to Super Saver) broke her maiden Friday, am excited to see her in 2012.

Have watch on colt owned by Lael Stables to watch for this year as he has now won two races in a row, broke his maiden and now an allowance at Gulfstream (Simbamangu). I know allowance isn't stakes, but he could be a nice older horse. Tale of the Cat over Jade Hunter mare Chitka. Trained by Barclay Tagg who I respect. 2008 colt. www.pedigreequery.com/simbamangu

Another older horse I like for the grass is Point of Entry (1/2 to Pine Island, owned by Phipps) won an allowance on Dec 26/11 by 2 lengths. He should be a very nice older horse. I have no doubt. Phipps is always patient in bringing horses up. I have always followed their horses.

The excitement for what 2012 promises to bring has set in officially. Welcome to the New Year everyone!

Jason:

the very same argument that you use in supporting some of your choices for Eclipse Awards also applies to why Hansen will receive the juvie nod.  "The Breeders' Cup ... was the deciding race and" he was much the best. Whether Rags ran "wide" or got a "poor ride", he lost, and that's horse racing.  Having watched Rags in both of his Saratoga wins, I will say he was talented there, but he did not secure the year end vistory at the BC, period.  Enough with the excuses.  If your platform of winning the BC is strong enough for you to support Amazombie, Royal Delta, Caleb and others, the same logic must be applied to this category.

Harve de Grace will probably win, but my vote would go to the turf specialist Cape Blanco. He really was the only dominant horse this year, and he pretty much made it look easy. He wasn't even a top runner in Europe, but he was good enough to dominate here. Let's get real, the American horses can't hold a candle to the likes of Frankel and Black Caviar. Not a good year for the Americans at all. Things will get better this year, and I really expect some 4 year old's to show their true stuff. Watch out for MuchoMachoMan, the youngest horse to ever run in the Derby. His last win was amazing and effortless, he is going to be something special this year, mark my words. I saw his last 4f breeze at just over 46 seconds, pretty freakish for a workout. Say what you will about Union Rags and Hansen people, my $50 future wager bet on the Derby will be on "the field". Good money!

Don't know who will be the best 3 yr old in 2012, could well be Union Rags but for 2011 if they are voting by the year, its that beautiful, stunning Hansen. He is the most beautiful guy I ever saw and he is totally unbeaten to date.

Jacob, EVERY year is different when it comes to determining championships, especially the Eclipse for HotY. Sometimes it is easy - Spectacular Bid's 3yo and 4yo years - and sometimes it is hard, like the year nobody in the older horse or 3yo divisions stood out enough in the voters' eyes so they gave it to a 2yo who had won all 8 of his races - Favorite Trick. (That was in 1997, folks; it was not that long ago that 2yos had proper campaigns!) Now if a  Bid has been around, winning the string of races he did either of his championship years, nobody would have considered Favorite Trick for HotY. Circumstances change from year to year. That's the nature of the beast.

Oh, and eliminating from consideration horses with sufficient race records who get hurt and can't run in the BC (Cape Blanco, Acclamation) is unfair (I was going to say 'absurd' or 'crazy', but some folks are easily offended by such opinions.) Body of work, people - if they have beaten horses who are competitive in subsequent top races, their merit is proved.

Year of the first Eclipse awards, in August, West Coast sensation Ack Ack colicked badly enough that he nearly died. Couldn't run in the top older horse wfa the Woodward, so Whittingham sent in  Cougar II, who had been second to him getting weight in the Big 'Cap. Coug ran away from the Woodward field and although he was DQ'd on one of those 'brushes the tiring leader as he shoots away' travesties, the point was made; Ack Ack got the HotY Eclipse.

This year, Cape Blanco suffered his injury in the race in which the Kitten horse got close to him, still held on - pure guts; therefore, Kitten horse's run in the BC not a valid measuring stick. Some of you seem unaware of facts like this, which is puzzling to me. Fully reported in the news sections at the time.

Karen in Texas, as far as Union Rags' pedigree is concerned, you cannot just look at the sire side of his pedigree.  Look at Union Rags' dam; that is where you will find the stamina.  When looking at a colt's pedigree, it is very important to look at the tail side of his pedigree.    

KY Vet, just because a horse wins the BC, doesn't seal the deal on receiving the ultimate award.  IMO Union Rags is the superior horse.  Also, I like Margano.  He won his maiden race in spectacular fashion.  

Ranagulzion,

If you still be believe Union Rags deserve the eclipse award as Champion 2YO after reading the summary of cold facts below you would have signified your loss of objectivity.

TOP HREE FINISHERS BODY OF WORK PRECEDING BCJ:

UNION RAGS:

1st MSM (5F Del)

1st Saratoga Special S. (G2,Sar,6½f)

1st Champagne S. (G1,Bel,8f)

CREATIVE CAUSE:

1st MSM (5F HOL)

1st Best Pal S (G2  Dmr, 6½f)

2nd Delmar Futurity (G1 Dmr, 7f)

1st Norfolk (G1, SA, 81/2f)

HANSEN:

1st MSM (51/2F, TP)

1st Ungraded Kentucky Cup Juvenile (81/2F, TP)

Creative Causes had the best body of work heading into the BCJ. He was 3rd after the gates open and maintained that position until he claimed 2nd heading into the stretch. He had first shot at Hansen and was repelled. Union Rags was wide because he did not display the requisite early speed  to claim a good position. He was only about 1 1/2L wide of leader Hansen after 4F.  He was unbleached at the top of the stretch and although galloping powerfully could not catch Hansen. He did swerve momentarily in the stretch but did not lose enough ground to contribute to his defeat. Hansen who was tiring in deep stretch but found a lot extra on a bad part of the track. Viewing the gallop out neither Union Rags nor Creative Cause galloped passed Hansen.

Creative Causes with the best body of work had a perfect trip and got beat. Union rage was not significantly impeded by his wide trip as he had a clear passage throughout. The colts with the best and second best body of work had not excuses for their defeat by an inexperience colt making his graded debut. While there are no excuses that can be supplied for them, there is a reason why they lost. They ran into to a superior opponent. Hansen was the fifth choice in the betting as G1 winners Dullahan and Drill were bet ahead of him. They also had a better body of work. In fact, there were about eight colts that sported better bodies of work than Hansen.

Let’s assume BOW is the basis on which the eclipse award is made. Does Creative Cause who had the best body of work heading into the BCJ have a claim on the eclipse award? He has the same number of graded win as UR and one more graded start. Based on your BOW rational Hansen should be voted the #3, 2YO.

HE WHO DEFEATS THE DEFEATERS OF SUPIRIOR OPPOSITIONS PROVES HIMSELF TO BE ULTIMATELY SUPERIOR.

Jason; I am pretty much in agreement with your list.  I think "Grace" may very well take HOY, but I don't think it's a slam-dunk.  More a case of no real standout in the older horse or 3-yr old divisions.  I've found the comments regarding Hansen vs Union Rags to be quite interesting. Personally, I think there is little doubt Rags is the better colt, certainly he beat more good horses more often. Is his loss to Hansen in the BCC legit?  I don't think so.  Whoever said Hansen "smoked him" wasn't watching the same race I saw. While it doesn't mean a hill of beans in terms of who gets the money, but where was Rags one jump after the wire?  Yes, he ran green, but he got a horrible, horrible ride.  Gotta give Hansen credit though for winning against the bias on the day, but I wouldn't agree he beat Rags "fair and square".

My only other comment is to Freetax.  The only possible horse on your list worthy of HOY consideration is Game on Dude.  You can't give it to Hansen because he's a 2 yr old and not even a clear standout in his division.  My Miss Aurelia was a clear standout in her division, but after Favorite Trick, I don't think the award will go to a 2 yr old anytime soon.  Unless they win outside their division.  Acclamation had a good year but where did he run and who did he beat?  Rapid Redux had a great year, but he is an allowance horse at best.  Does anybody doubt that any other horse under HOY consideration wouldn't run circles around RR? Drosselmeyer?  He had a very mediocre year until he won the BCC, on a day when many of the top horses couldn't handle the track. I don't think even his owner or trainer are touting him for the award.

Bottom line for me is it was a year of few standout performances and fewer still standout horses, making it very difficult to sort them out.  Jason's list is as good as any I've seen.

Hansen's real birthday is April 23, also he cut his mouth in the starting gate, it had to hurt and he still would not let anyone by him.  If he doesn't win the voting is unfair.  Any of these gorgeous creatures could go down at any time.  Hansen's time is now.

Codfacts,

You are either being disingenuous or playig dumb on the body-of-work issue.  BOW is not merely about quantity before the BCJ; its moreso about quality after all is taken into accpount.  Creative Cause got beaten twice out from five starts and he was comprehensively beaten in the BCJ therefore how does he enter the reckoning based upon BOW?

If that is how you are going to support Hansen for 2YO champ, your arguments are a liability to his cause. Union Rags was the best 2YO of 2011 and a short-head loss in the BCJ doesn't diminish that FACT.

Paula Higgins,

“Jason, whether KY VET'S grammar is spot on or not, I always understand his point and often agree with it.”

Kindly view this post with the objectivity I think it merits. You are at liberty to agree with whomever you chose. However, I do believe you missed the point Mr. Shandler was making. If an individual chooses to be rude, then he/she should leave no doubt that they are not of questionable intelligence.  Out of an abundance of prudence I have chosen to use the term ‘questionable intelligence’ instead of a more appropriate word that starts with the letter I and end with letter T. Are you of the opinion that the term “More Stupider” is coming from the keyboard of an individual who at minimum, has average intelligence? The use of such a term not only reflects the butchering of English Grammar but also exposes the poster’s limitation. Those who choose to be rude should at least be grammatically correct when doing so as failure to do same exposes them as buffoons.

I regard these blogs as providing an opportunity for thoroughbred lovers to share their views on  various sectors of the industry. The process works but there are those who believe the forum provides licenses to unscrupulous persons to post disparaging remarks about the views of others. The more endorsements this poster secure, the more he will be empowered to continue his disrespect of the process. While he is at liberty to dislike certain posters he is not at liberty to disrespect the process.  

PEOPLE.... calm down! I spelled it that way on purpose....really? you dont get it?  stupider? get it? wow.....anyway, its an award! not about who you think is best....you people really think rags will win? you cant be that stupider!!!

AAF,

Acclamation the best of an awful California group? Seriously, if there's any argument to be made for Cape Blanco, it's not superior competition. Beating Gio Ponti 2 years past his prime is hardly impressive. Cape Blanco was a nose better than a horse that got beat 19 lengths in the BC Turf. The one thing he has in his favor is his extra grade 1 win on turf, but don't pretend that any of the races he ran in were any more competitive than Acclamation's. From a visual standpoint, Acclamation was clearly the more impressive of the two and you should consider yourself lucky he didn't ship over and dust Cape Blanco.

Does it matter to anyone how fast a horse runs? I mean, no one is mentioning how fast a horse runs! Some of you are talking alw horses...acclimation? game on dude? Any real handicappers in here? What would those 2 odds be against FLAT OUT, HDG, TIZWAY at their best? check out the top beyers list! those 3 most impressive....Oh i fogot you people go on things like a horse that won 1 race, but hes the gamest horse with a big heart!!! shackelford  really? losing every race is the measure of a huge heart? game? winning 1 race? the slow preakness? weak division 1 race won? refuse to win!!!! whats wrong with you people?

Another point no one has mentioned...as a pro handicapper i will share this little gem with you all....everyone is saying how rags is better than hansen....but people are missing something important..the juv. was run in what? 94?96 beyer? thats not good! Union rags was more prepared as in he was sharp already! hansens beyers were low with only 2 races. Hansen had to improve alot to win, and did.....Rags was already sharp months before,  i.e.not much excuse not to win....point being rags didnt improve....this is not a great sign......for rags......he really had that field over a barrel. which is why the big favoritism..94 beyer..........108 mo last year........you all rave about a dissapointing horse...

Mary----I have looked at both sides of Union Rags' pedigree. No one knows what any of these colts will ultimately accomplish, but your statement that Rags "has the pedigree to run all day long" is certainly debatable. Alan Porter believes he may be most effective at a distance of about one mile. My guess is that Mr. Maker is now working to teach Hansen to rate. It would have been counter-productive to try to alter his front running style immediately before the BCJ, but as he tries longer distances, rating may be necessary. Hansen has won at 1 1/16 miles twice; Union Rags has not won at over a mile. I'm not sure how that applies to the future of either colt, but it is something to consider. I'll try to link the Porter article; my statement is based on his conclusions in the last paragraph.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../union-rags-special-win-hope-for-sires-line

Paula 'thinking' and 'learning' were lost on you a long time ago.  Stevebiscuit I think Always A Princess should win the older mare division since she EASILY beat BL in both their meetings until her untimely retirement.  Game On Dude HOTY???? You remember the line from Forest Gump don't you?

Acclamation was injuried which was why he did not go on to the Breeders Cup, please take note of this fact AfleetAlex4Ever. If you want to make statements about California horses please make sure that its correct. Tired of the ho hum words of California horses ducking the East Coast horses which you know planes do fly to both coasts so how about some of those Eastern horses come try our tracks.

robinm, I agree with you 100%.  I think that Hansen is a wonderful horse, but tantamount is his inability to rate. BTW, I know that most people don't pay attention to workouts, but I put much credence in workouts.   Hansen is not training all that great right now.  

Coldfacts, Union Rags won the race a couple of feet past the finish.  Come on, Hansen does not have the stamina to run longer distances; I love Hansen, but Union Rags is the superior horse.  UR galloped out ahead of Hansen.  

Older male, Game on Dude; remember Lentenor beat him last year in the Florida Derby.  I love Lentenor, Barbaro's full brother.

Pedigree Ann, right on.  Love your psot.

papillon, you are wrong.  Union Rags was foaled on May 3rd, not March 3rd.  Be careful about what you report, please.  UR was a late foal.

Ky Vet: Nice try at a recovery. However, we've seen your writing many times before to know it was no accident. Your body of work is overwhelming evidence against you. Guilty.

Mary,

A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Nijinsky II, and Northern Dancer, on his sire line, with Temperence Hill, Secretariat, Private Account, Damascus, Run the Gantlet on his dam's side.  How do you figure that Hansen has a sprinter's pedigree?  Check out the number of Belmont Stakes winners/1 1/2 mile horses alone.  Where are you finding sprinter?  Just because he's a frontrunner?  Frontrunner doesn't always mean he can't handle a distance.

People said Slew couldn't harness his speed either - look what he did.   There were an awful lot of naysayers back then -  you among them too?  I for one am old enough to remember Slew's races.  Yes, he had speed, but he also had grit and heart.  He also had a trainer who knew the work he had ahead of him to get a horse like Slew through the Triple Crown.  And despite Slew's frontrunning capabilities, he did manage to teach him to harness that speed and successfully carry it a distance.  Yes, he lost to Exceller in the JCGC, but many will agree that that was probably his greatest race.

Hansen had a lot going against him coming into the BCJ, and he still won.  So what if it wasn't by a large margin?  That just means there will be something left in the tank for later.  Besides, large margins used to mean higher weight imposts.

Let's just hope and pray both colts stay happy and healthy - will make for a very exciting Triple Crown season!  And I, for one, and inclined to believe that Hansen just might be able to do what his great-granddaddy did.  Hey, we already know he can handle the track at CD!  (Besides, it's been 34 years and counting...)

To an exciting Triple Crown season!

Ranagulzion,

“BOW is not merely about quantity before the BCJ; its more so about quality after all is taken into account”.

From the above it appears you have exclusivity on the determination of quality. The fields Union Rags faced were loaded with quality and those faced by Creative Cause, Hansen Dullahan, Drill, Daddy long Legs etc., were primarily comprised of dogs. Creative Cause finished about a length behind Union Rags and would have been closer if not for the fact that he attempted to dart to the rails and had be corrected by his rider. His antics cost him more than those of Union Rags. Creative Cause and Union Rags have the same number of wins. The compositions of these wins are identical; the fact that CC has one more loss than UR can be attributed to him making an extra start. In any event his first lost was in a G1 race which is identical to the status of the race in which UR suffered his first loss. Union Rags defeated seven horses that were either graded winners or graded placed. Hansen went one better with eight. How can two colts that lined up against the best field each has ever faced and the runner up be  crowned champion?

“You are either being disingenuous or playing dumb on the body-of-work issue.”

You are so fixated on the BOW issue that you have failed to see its folly. If there is eclipse awarded for 1st 2nd & 3rd in the 2YO male category, Hansen would finish third based on his body of work compared to those of Creative Cause and Union rags. What exactly is disingenuous or dumb about using the BOW measure you have advanced?  You surely do not expect the measure to be used for Union Rags and Hansen only. Union Rags entered the BCJ as the champion of the graded Saratoga Special and Champagne Stakes. Hansen entered the BCJ as the champion of the ungraded Kentucky Cup Juvenile. He existed as Breeder Cup World Champion. You specify that Union Rags narrow loss should be nullified based on his BOW preceding the BCJ. Are you aware that Hansen is yet to be headed or defeated in any of his starts? You highlight the quality of the fields Union Rags faced. The Champagne field was so great that UN got stuck behind horses, was blocked in the stretch and was still capable of sprinting away from the field. Do you believe Union Rags could have defeated Hansen in the Champagne with his trouble trip based on is relatively untroubled trip in the BCJ.

“Union Rags was the best 2YO of 2011 and a short-head loss in the BCJ doesn't diminish that FACT”

My learned friend if you can answers the following questions correctly you should be able to determine who is the Champion 2011 2YO:

Which of the top three 2YOs went undefeated?

Which of the top three 2YOs won the biggest race for the age group?

Which 2YO defeated the top 2YOs in the US?

Which of the top three 2YOs has never been headed in a race?

Which of the top three 2YOs defeated the best field assembled?

Which of the top three 2YOs have the best body of work?

You should have known by now that baseless, emotionally driven positions cannot trump COLD FACTS.

According to equineline.com, Union Rags was foaled on March 3rd.  Equibase.com also lists his date as March 3rd.

Ranagul your buddy CFs doesnt need you to take his side, he writes enough on this blog to be getting paid for it,BTW he might be, his screen name could be a pen name.As far as the Derby sire line's I think you left one other prominent one out.I also asked if someone knew out of the Derby nominations how many were of the Northern Dancer line,you probably know and instead of trying to argue with me should have wrote it in your reply to me.A thing about breeding and the Derby I would guess that you and your buddy Coldfacts are involved in breeding because its use in handicapping is IMO the long way to the solution.You are trying to out think the owners and trainers who all know the history of breeding as it relates to the Derby.Breeding is not as exact as you make it out to be, otherwise full brothers and sisters to derby winners such as Barbaro would have siblings to at least come close to their brothers talent level.What separates Barbaro from his siblings is the intangibles,desire,intelligence,a will to win etc,and there is no way to breed for this.Btw if I made any errors as in grammer etc Im sure you will let me know,and I dont care if your reply tries to take parts of my posts out of context, and ridicule them as you see I dont get paid for posting on here.

Happy New Year.

We can all be more helpful if we consider the interest of the reader.

I for one think two things would help.

Greater use should be made of Spell Check.  Second, all abbreviations of the names of horses should be banned. I find such abbreviations to be inconsiderate of the reader. Why does one have to figure out what horse  is AK, GOD or HDG?

But on to the main issue, judging horses.

I offer as an example my quintessential Horse of the Year. This example might offend  some because it explodes a couple  of beliefs, but that is not my intention.

The horse in question is Ghostzapper.

He raced 11 times.

In his first 7 starts he did not race beyond 7 furlongs.

In his eighth and ninth starts he won at 9 furlongs.

In his tenth start he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic by 3 while breaking the track record.

Notice he had no problem going from 7 to 9 furlongs, then from 9 furlongs to 10 furlongs.

The reason is he had the talent and the stamina and he was trained to do so, the same way horses are trained in England to go from the one-mile 2000 Guineas to the 1.5-mile Epsom Derby.

By the way, in the Classic he beat such routers as Roses In May and Pleasantly Perfect.

Whenever  one talks  about pedigree, running style and experience, one should remember Ghostzapper

We all know th4e Eclipse awards are really the AMERICAN Thoroughbred Awards.    How else to explain the absence of anyone even mentioning the awesome FRANKEL for consideration!

KY VET - you keep throwing around that you are a professional handicapper.  So what?  Hank Goldberg is a professional handicapper and I've never seen him pick a winner higher than 7-5.

Jason - Agree with the majority of your picks, except I would go with Hanson for male 2 year old.  Can't argue with your logic, I'm just putting more stock in the head to head meeting when you have horses that only run 3 or 4 times in a year.  I also would go with Castellano for Jockey.

Where is it written that a horse needs to win a certain number of grade I races to be named horse of the year? And where is it written that a horse needs to perform from january until the following december? And where is it written that a Breeders Cup win equals a champion race horse? The last I knew an individual is free to vote for any horse in any category.

If I had a vote, Tizway would be my clear selection for HOY. Tizway's wins in the Met Mile and Whitney were powerful and brilliant! And I write this while being a huge fan of Havre de Grace. The truth is that Tizway was far more dominant than any other horse in 2011. 1:32 for a mile and he still kept on running hard, what a horse.

My vote for 3 year old colt would go to Caleb's Posse. You can not fault this horse for not winning a triple crown race. This is one clear problem with horse racing, way to much attention is given to the triple crown races. Sure it's great for TV and ratings, but horse racing needs attention all year long. My point is that a middle distance horse should be crowned the champion in this division.

My vote for 2 year old colt would go to Union Rags. Union Rags posted wins in a grade I and a grade II race, as well as a second place finish in the grade I B.Cup.

Sugarfoot,

I do not blame Castellano for the loss by Union Rags. Yes the horse had a wider trip than Hansen, but a jockey can not always have a dream trip. The track was claimed to be like peanut butter by some and Union Rags lost by a diminishing nose. I would expect Castellano to remain on Union Rags unless a better horse comes his way.

LA Dakota,

This New Yorker does not consider Uncle Mo or Stay Thirsty superstars. How did they both finish up in the B.C Classic? Remember some were talking triple crown for Mo. And later there was even mention of HOY with a classic win. Both arguments were laughable at best.

KY Vet,

Hansen's win in the B.C. Juvenile does not automatically make him a champion in his division. If that were true, then why do they even bother to card other graded stakes races for 2 year olds?

no mary, i'm sorry, but you are wrong--

Horses 1-1 of 1

Horse Name Born Sex

Union Rags 03/03/2009   C

Sire Dam

Dixie Union Tempo

(source:drf)

union rags is a march colt. the oldest of the top contenders, and despite everyone saying he's green, he also happens to be one of the most experienced colts.  

his chaotic running style isn't green, it's just unprofessional...or...

heh...considering he's a picses, it could also just be uncomitted =) (either way not a good sign for the future)

i was wrong about the oldest colt, however, it is not dullahan; it is gemologist, a january colt (1/28/2009--aquarius =unpredictable...i may have to bet a little on my fellow aquarian, for solidarity...unfortunately, however, we aqaurians typically take the path of least resistance, and dislike competition...we win, when it's easy, but loose interest pretty fast if it's not...soo.....

i'm liking my new joke bet angle, however--my last joke bet angle, to bet on the all of the white horses at the breeders cup paid off pretty nicely...this years joke bet will be to bet the ky derby  based on the horses astrological signs.  

so far my boy hansen is still looking the strongest...the only sign more likely to outlast a taurus is a capricorn, but it's unlikely that there are any capricorns in the 2009 crop, given that they would have to be late december/early january foals...

Mary, I too saw that Hansen had a very slow work at Gulfstream, wondered if it was intentional since he hadn't been out since the cup.  I think he can learn to rate---he's only raced 3 times, I was at the Breeders and it looked to me like he runs for the joy of running---thats being young, he should and will have to to continue his success.  He must have some stamina---look at the distance of his first 2 races.

Love the white boy!

And I, for one, and inclined to believe that Hansen just might be able to do what his great-granddaddy did.  Sorry, let me make a correction here.  I for one believe that Hansen just might be able to do what his great, great-granddaddy did.

Hansen for 2yo champ!

Great blog as always Jason - really enjoy all the discussion you generate.  

3 year old male and horse of the year discussions continues to be such a downer...   really hope this 3 year old crop stays healthy and consistent...

I understand people's reluctance with Caleb's Posse, but he was by far the most consistent 3yo this year by G1 wins and BC performance.  I think he would be my vote too.  

I am not sold on Havre de Grace as HOY - she was dominant in the Beldame (on a track that I don't think others could handle) but still swapped races with Blind Luck and fell apart in the Classic.  An open company win alone does not determine a mare's HOY credentials - although it certainly helps in super-competitve years.

Or Game on Dude?  Super consistent, 2 GI wins, traveled all over the place, and a freak performance from Drosselmeyer away from a BC win. What about My Miss Aurelia?  Undefeated, dominant in her division, BC win, and 3 graded victories?  

And enough with Zenyatta already!!!  She had an amazing career, she lost, she got her HOY - DONE!  How is this relevant to this year's Eclipse awards?

I am big fans of Union Rags and Hansen, but I think Union Rags should get the 2yo eclipse. Not taking anything away from Hansen's win - he is some kind of racehorse!- I am really looking forward to him this season.

Each had 3 wins, but only one had 2 graded wins - doesn't that count for something?  Especially when they were so evenly matched in the BC?  Division honors are based on the whole body of work, UR campaigned in more challenging races through out the year maintaining an impressive record.  Hansen destroyed an overmatched field in the KY Cup and just held off UR in the BC.

Haven't you always had a special place in your heart for the Barbaro Brothers? Lentonor and Nicanor? Mary?

How can i expect people to get the "STUPIDER" comment when they dont understand that the breeders cup win by hansen sealed the deal? Its not even a discussion. Hansen won it. Who told you guys the best horse wins the trophy? Listen, a underprepared horse beat the horse that was sharp for months...rags should have killed that race, Hansen won because he improved to a 94 beyer .....weak weak weak....rags was a big dissapointment.....not hard to figure out....Come on people,....the award doesnt mean best horse...if it did Turbulent descent would win hers...she blew herself up running like a monster...she went bad...

Robinm

Whoever said Hansen''smoked him''wasn't watchin the same race i saw.

Well boss it was me,the race i saw he came out of them thier gates and made every yard a winning one by the way on the bias rail and repelled everybody in the straight, yup he "he smoked em".Put that in yur pipe and smoke it.2yo Horse Of The Year.

Blind Luck is a better filly than Havre de Grace but gets nothing due to one unfortunate race. Doesn't seem quite fair.

For 2 year old it would be Hansen. These 2 year olds have just started running, an he was going up the steps. If you go back and watch UR's races this is not ht e first time he has done this, and if you look the vear out looked to be in response to a left handed whip both times.If it was a one time occurance with the lugging out then I would say bad luck, not so. Sorry Jason I was on the UR band wagon until I watched Hansen run. UR doesn't have the breeding to go the distance. Hansen still has alot left to deliver.He is the top 2 year old. He won it fair and square, wire to wire, in spite of lack of experience, and track bias. He showed alot more will to win.

Welcome back Jason.

Agree with your picks except for 2 y.o. male.  Hansen won the BC Juv. fair and square and will be voted the Eclipse award.

JerseyBoy:

Thanks for the reminder about getting too bogged down on running styles, distance and breeding with your piece on Ghostzapper.  I hope BB(Bob Baffert) can do the same with SC(Secret Circle) for the Derby.   Really like this colt.  He can sit behind the speed and he does have a win over the peanut butter track.

I had e-mailed a correction about Turbulent Descent going for her third not fourth grade 1 win of 2011 in the La Brea, but that correspondence must have not been received. My question is why would she be up for the top sprint female off of two sprint races, neither fast, even with the synthetic track in the Beaumont, gr.2 or the slow Saratoga track on the day of the Test,gr.1 both races against other 3yo fillies? TD's other grade 1 win was not in a sprint. Are those who wished for TD to win an Eclipse suggesting top 3yo filly honors? Those belong to Royal Delta.

I dont bet any futures pools on the Derby except for the ones offered on US ADW wagering accounts which include exactas(dont have access to the Vegas pools which was the one covered in one of the blogs on this site.The way I hedge is to figure out how I can lose the exacta and decide if I want to cover that combination or not.I think the exotic pools are the most ineffient betting totals there are,unlike the win pool for example in which the post time favorite wins at a rate of 33% give or take for different meets and tracks that have a larger average field size.Take the Cali tracks the 1st or 2nd choice betting choices win at a combined rate  of over 50%,check it out if you dont know or dont believe what I am posting.I am two for three in future derby wagering,losing last year.I dont know yet if I will bet this year.I am not betting an AP indy sire line colt or any other one until I see some results on the track,I believe handicapping the derby by use of breeding is in the past,we live in the information age anyone can get breeding stats if they care to search the internet library that is at their fingertips.I still believe being a breeding expert pays off in other endeavors such as breeding,owning or training,and the profession of bloodstock agent,pinhooking and those type of jobs ,but in my opinion the use of breeding to pick a derby winner is the long way to do it.I prefer the shorthand method and make money by properly structuring my bets and money management.

Hey Jersey Boy I think the Zappers last race was the Met Mile in 2005.He was another great addition to my virtual stable on equibase,and I just got on his back to win one bet after another,using him to key exotic bets.Luckily I hit the triple in his last race in NY.BTW he was a late developer and I didnt ad him until later in his career after a race I watched either at Belmont or Saratoga.I think he was always highly regarded but didnt hit his prime until he was a horse and not a colt.Having Bobby Frankel as a trainer was probaly the main reason they were able to be patient with him.

Just got my copy of the 2012 Stallion Register. It is hard to not see A.P. Indy, Mr. Greeley, Gone West and Storm Cat all not there anymore.

Getting that each year is like Christmas all over again for me! I could spend hours looking through the pedigrees!

Agree with most of your picks Jason.  One disagreement would be 2 yr old male.  I would have to vote Hansen.  Yes, Union Rags was the more accomplished horse going into the BC, but it wasn't like Union Rags had put together an overwhelming campaign; the gap in accomplishment between Union Rags and Hansen going into the Breeder's Cup wasn't enough to counterweight the fact Hansen won the BC.

I really like Acclamation and said most of the second half of the year that he was the best horse to have run in California.  Unfortunately, he's going to fall through the Eclipse cracks.  To a certain extent, Acclamation is going to get punished in the voting because he was versatile enough to win the Pacific Classic on synthetic; it appears few are counting the Pacific Classic towards the Male Turf award, and without the Pacific Classic(counting just turf races) Acclamation is down 3-2 in gr.1 wins to Cape Blanco.  One could count all of Acclamation's races towards the Older Male award, like Gio in 09', but I sense that many are hesitant to give Acclamation an Eclipse traditionally reserved for dirt horses given Acclamation has just one maintrack win, with that one win coming on synthetic.  

The result is that Game on Dude will likely win the award, and honestly I don't have a problem with that(would have a HUGE problem with Tizway).

As for Female Sprinter, I would vote for Musical Romance.  Moments after the BC Filly + Mare Sprint I was looking at Musical Romance as a one hit wonder, but then I went back over her pps and realized that she had a very productive year even before the BC.  I might have been inclined to give it to Turbulent Descent had she won the La Brea, but that was made moot.

On the subject of Turbulent Descent, and fans of hers might not like what comes next(and I consider myself a fan), but I've come to the conclusion that she simply doesn't have the upside that so many thought she had.  

Because she won her first 2 starts in hand and without being asked, most concluded that she would have alot more to offer once asked.  But looking back at the Hollywood Starlet, after Turbulent Descent dragged Flores to the lead she really wasn't able to kick clear of the field.  Then, in the Las Virgenes, Flores rode her as if she was Zenyatta, allowing Zazu to get in front of her along the backstretch.  Turbulent Descent did come running, but in the end Zazu was able to repulse that bid.  

In the Acorn, Turbulent Descent again pulled Flores right up to the Flank of the leader, in this case It's Tricky, and appeared set to blow by that rival for her 3rd gr.1 win.  However, when Flores finally got into her, Turbulent Descent didn't have anything more to offer, and It's Tricky won going away.  In the BC Filly + Mare Sprint, Turbulent Descent made what looked to be a winning move, again dragging Flores to the lead without being asked.  But when Flores did ask Turbulent Descent in deep stretch, the tank was empty and she ended up losing ground to 4 horses in the stretch, including a Musical Romance, a horse she had passed earlier in the stretch.

To be certain, Flores didn't do Turbulent Descent any favors in the La Brea by dropping her to last behind what was for that speedway Saturday a tepid early pace.  Then to compound matters, Flores ended up taking her about 6 wide.  Again, Flores was riding her as if she were a first ballot Hall of Famer.  For a few moments, it looked like Turbulent Descent might still be able to salvage a placing despite the trip, but like in the BC, she ended up losing ground through the stretch to horses she had managed to pass earlier.

With only one Beyer over 100, and that coming in a race she ran 7 furlongs in 1:24(over a Saratoga surface on Whitney day that I think was given inflated Beyers), it just doesn't appear Turbulent Descent has elite speed.  Clearly, Turbulent Descent is best as a stalker, and a ride like Flores gave in the La Brea is simply unacceptable.  But even with good trips, she just might not be fast enough to beat the elite female sprinters in the country(and now she isn't going to have the luxury of running in races restricted to her age group).

What bothers me most as a fan is that Turbulent Descent has lost ground through the stretch in 3 of her last 4 races.  This is a surprising development from a filly that is a two-time gr.1 winner at 8.5 furlongs.  Equally disturbing, as I mentioned earlier, is that in all 3 of these losses she made strong moves with little prompting, and yet was empty when Flores actually got into her.  Perhaps, like Officer and Perfect Drift, Turbulent Descent is a horse that is already giving her all without encouragement, and when the serious running begins and the jockey asks her for more, there just isn't any more for her to give nor is there the needed extra gear.

good point Mary Zinke.  I was wondering why she would be up for top female sprinter when she never beat older nor did she face males, as many 3 yr old female sprinters have in the past.

KY VET, Coldfacts,

I'm amazed ...you two agree for a change about Hansen and I'm numbered among the "stupider" (LOL)

KINGCAPPER,

Confession is good for the soul.  You took quite a while to try to redeem yourself on the hedging-of-bets issue in Jason's Futures Pool blog but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and believe your disclosure, that you are really a prudent gambler. I must warn you that if what you have posted isn't the truth you need to pay your priest a visit. Okay?

Regarding the application of breeding expertise your opinion is what it is, only, it is better not to post negative on assumptions about Blog-posters whom you know next-to-nothing about. You expose yourself to riducle by doing that my friend. History confirms that the pedigree angle is a very important one in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, not to mention that it makes for interesting discussion.  Nevertheless it is superfluous for me to say that pedigree isn't all that matters. Having said that I'll be looking among the Northern Dancer line colts for my Derby pick this year and Union Rags is presently the head honcho.

Good luck with your shorthand handicapping and hedging bets. Sincerely.  

Yes TripleCrownKaren, the Eclipse awards are the "American" championship awards.  That is what they were designed to be.  All the other countries have their version of the awards too.

Jason - how hypocritical that you think Grace deserves HOTY but Zenyatta didn't!!! And by the same standards that you said Blame deserved it now you say Hansen doesn't......?  You never cease to amaze!

Sylvester, I would bet my I.Q. against yours any day of the week.

Coldfacts, no one should be gratuitously rude in their posts to anyone. That is agreed. Otherwise we sink to the level of Sylvester. We need people to engage in this sport and blogs can promote that or they can scare and intimidate people with their tone and incivility. No poster, especially those new to the sport, should feel they don't have a voice here. Many on this site have been following the sport for all their adult lives, and others have a professional connection to it. Then there are others, like me, who have been following the sport for a comparatively short period of time. There needs to be a place for everyone for this sport to survive, or it will go the way of  figure skating, which is pretty much off the radar. I would hate to see that happen. Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs gets it. Why do you think she, John and the Moss' started Zenyatta.com? They did it to keep the fans coming to the races and engaged in the sport. Santa Anita needs seats filled with people. Check Facebook and all the horses that have Facebook pages. Their connections are trying to build fan bases. This site is another way to engage and educate the newer fans and the more experienced bloggers should take the lead.

Lively  and passionate discussions are great. It is when they degenerate into mud-slinging contests, especially when one poster is the focus ( KY VET in this case), that I have a problem with them. Having said that, "stupider" is neither literate or nice. We agree. The people on this site who actually state their opinions and then back them up with facts, or life experiences, are the ones I learn from the most.

Racingfan: Does your significant other still console you as you cry yourself to sleep each night?

Dont blame the horse, blame Sherriffs. He's the one that cost her.

Now, try to get some sleep. It'll be ok.

@mary--hansen isn't training well, right now? really? that's funny since he's he's the only BCJ colt back in training currently.

he's already got two timed 4f works under his belt-- the first a slow maintenance work, in which he was restrained from going faster; and  faster work (on par with his normal 4f times, and with the bulk of the other 4f works that day at GSP); and this saturday, the third week in row, he'll work again, this time going 5 furlongs at full speed. he is right on course for his planned start in the holy bull at the end of january.

besides, hansen always trains alone in the dark because he is too competitive to train in company. horses that train in company tend to work faster than horses that train alone.

as for rags passing him in the gallop out, hansen bit the living daylights of his tongue in the BCJ just about at the 8th pole. his mouth was so bloody that the blood clearly shows up in every late stretch photo and was all over human hansen's shirt in the winner's circle.  

and since people are making all kinds of excuses for rags, i've got a pretty good one for hansen--rags got let back in the race because hansen slowed down slightly in the final 16th, because he was both in serious pain and gulping down his own blood, which is a shocking and uncomfortable sensation for an obligate vegetarian. yet, despite the blood and pain, hansen dug in, held on, and still won.

looking into my crystal ball i see that in the FOY, hansen beats rags again--this time pretty easily. rags won't even place or show--reveron will show and some dale romans horse, as yet to be determined, will place. rags will be given a pass, because this will be his first race back, and even though there will be an inquiry as to whether his weird tendency to swerve in the lane impeded casual trick. but rags'll get away with it and be given a goldikova. and nick zito will knit his bushy brows with chargin.

Best horse in america? Tizway was early. 2 truly great performances.great beyers...then Flat out was...3 great beyers...then hdg ran top beyers for a female......when exactly was game on dude the best? never! And you people like him for best? More wins? no. better beyers ? no....Is it you like his name? his color?2nd to a 102 beyer in weak classic time? why?  I think alot of people dont know a great horse when they see one! At least recognize a great performance....tizway ran 2, as did HDG, Flat out, uncle mo, Calub posse.......the female ran 3 beyers close to the boys...that means she was most impressively consistent.....

I'm alive thru two days of Shovivor--had Bauble Queen, at 5-1 morning line the longest shot on the board...had Top Debutante, I look for small fields/finishers--those are the ones who finish 3rd--sure wish Unzip Me would've hung her sweet nose just a bit shorter, and finished fourth, instead of dead-heating for third! I'd like to hav e knocked many more out with the Cali Comet Unzip Me! Rome's horse finally got her trip--she one turns scary good! Keep the big fields coming! Going for three! Still alive, and am currently # 166!

Papillon, love your post about my favorite boy.  (Hansen of course)

The use of Breeding as a handicapping tool was more valuable in the past because,you needed to do a lot of work to get the data.Nowadays with the use of the internet it is all there at your fingertips.A comparison is the use of Beyer speed figures anyone that buys a form has them,whereas when Beyer had them himself he was able to make a living as a gambler.There is no value gained becoming a pedigree expert JUST as a handicapping tool.As I said I dont get paid to blog and everything I post on here is my honest opinion,so I do not need to make any confessions as I have told no lies.Ranagul at least you reply to some posts that I make and you dont know me so we are in the same boat in that regard.The sport is undergoing a lot of change in the US because of the use of drugs in racing.The latest drug that was banned was steriods,does everyone think the regression in times and speed figures is a coincidence.The winner of the 2012 Derby is probably not well known yet,so betting into any futures pool in vegas is in someeone else's words not very prudent.The future pools here in the US on AWD sites dosent start until February.

I know I am a bit late to the debate and I know my grammer won't be perfect so please don't poke fun I am not perfect. I agree with Jason on just about everything for his choices and I can also see the points of some of the others. What I fail to understand is how people come up with some of their opinions like someone said Blind Luck should get older female if Harve gets HOTY. Now I agree Blind Luck was one tough filly but i also thought that in order to be in consideration for HOTY you had to win one of the eclipse categories. If i am wrong then it has changed but I thought that was always the way. Also someone mentioned Hansen should get 3 year old colt well that is completely impossible since he was 2 for the 2011 awards.and for the record i don't own a horse i am just a fan and just stating my opinion i don't claim to be an expert just slightly knowledgeable. I like Union Rags alot but 2 year old champions tend to go to the winners of the juvenille races i don't give Union Rags excuses he lost the race even great horses lose sometimes it wasn't his day Hansen is beautiful and a champ and i like him too i just  like Union a little better.And why are we still talking about Z she is gonna be a momma soon that is the only reason we should mention her 2011 has nothing to do with her, and yes I love her too. I think Harve should get HOTY i think she accomplished the most it is not her fault and unfortunate that the older horses were constantly getting hurt and retired. Let us just enjoy the new year and see what happens

Hey, Tiz Herself: I used to do the exact same thing.  It's one of the main ways I learned about pedigrees: reading the Stallion Register every year.  You just reminded me that it might be fun to pull out some of the older ones and look back on others who "dropped out" of the pages: Native Dancer (it surprised me how white he got over time), *Ambiorix (how the heck did you pronounce his name and what was the * for?), Northern Dancer (of course -- with his first crop of about 27 and 10 stakes horses and moving on up), Mr. Prospector (from regional Florida sire and on up), Round Table (does he still have any tail male representatives doing something at stud?)...

Anyways, thanks for the memories.

p.s. Kingcapper, you sound like the friends I went to the Derby with last year (2011 is already "last" year!!!)- they wanted a winning ticket so they placed a bet on every horse in the race.  

p.p.s.  I have a picture of my winning ticket on Animal Kingdom and I didn't bet on every horse in the race.  (Although for full disclosure, he was my gut pick.  All my carefully thought out handicapping picks finished out of the money.)(Is that another comment on handicapping? Sure it is.)

More comments on the actual subject of this blog:

HOY = Havre de Grace

Hansen won the big race and not in any cheatin' way so he deserves 2YO.  Let's see how they compare as 3YO's and then we'll talk again, because I really, really like Union Rags.  

Finally, some of you are starting to sound like all those cheesy horror movies: "It's ALIVE!!!" Please STOP with the rehashing of the 2010 / 2009 HOY stuff.  It's really getting too boring to even respond anymore.  And Jason, play nice and quit stoking the fires.  Just ignore the broken records.  (records, remember them?)

Enough already about Union Rags and Hansen, I predict that neither colt will be a factor on the first saturday in May.

Stevebiscuit,

I do not understand why the Woodward has become such an important race because of fillies winning it. At least Havre de Grace beat a good horse in Flat Out. Rachel Alexandra was gasping for air and desperately held off the late charge of Macho Again.

On the 2yo front...,

Are all of you unaware that Creative Cause was totally blocked in the final part of the Del Mar Futurity? He was coming between Majestic City and Drill (on the outside), when MC veered into his path and he had to take up, while Drill was in the clear. MC was disqualified and placed behind CC while Drill lucked into a win. Do you not watch these races? On TV or on-line? Live or as replays? CC was not beaten in this race - his chance to win was snatched away.

trackjack:

Some people spend so much time discussing pedigree, you would think that there are several dominant sire lines to ponder when there are just a few: Raise A Native, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler and Hail to Reason.

In the end, one has to choose a horse, not a bloodline. So I wonder how the bloodline prophets do it and if they ever get it right by actually picking the winner rather than the winner's bloodline.

Any bettor knows that the characteristics a horse inherits would be evident in its performance. This is the reason I judge horses by their performance only.

Of course in any large field there might be more than one member of the same sire line, so I can appear like a genius by saying – see I told you the winner will come from sire line X. I knew it.

Jason:

Off the subject.

Rapid Redux, now has won 22 in a row.

1 1/16 is about as far as Hansen can go.  He was really tired at the end, and Union Rags was not.  UR passed Hansen after the finish.

Like I said, Hansen's front running style will like get him in trouble as a 3 year old.  Evidentally, he can't be rated, so I thought that he might make a fantastic sprinter.  I'm just not that enthusiastic over Hansen.  I like him, though.  Distance will be a problem for him IMO.

Amazombie did pretty well for a horse that Spawr did not even realize he had purchased.  He certainly loved Santa Anita.

Bob Baffert gets the nod just based on his turn around of both Dudes and his barn continues to be so loaded from top to bottom with sprinters, 2 year olds, older males etc. etc.

Would like to see The Factor vs. Amazombie in the Palos Verdes (1/21/12) but I don't think we are going to get it.

Zenyatta ran just fine in the Breeder's Cup Classic.  In fact her performance was so great she won HOY off that performance.  HDG on the other hand looked like a filly that did not belong with the big boys.  She had no business being pared with Uncle Mo and Game On Dude.  She couldn't go with them and couldn't close into them.  Handicapping 101 my friends.  She should have stuck with the Ladies Classic.  

Just some thoughts on Hansen's and UR's pedigrees. Pedigree must play some importance or breeders would not pay it such close attention in any breeding arena. And for what it is worth I do think Hansen should be 2 yr old of the year. As far as UR being bred for distance his pedigree does not confirm this, even though genes are such devious little critters. It is simply amazing what can create the perfect storm. His sire was not a classic distnce horse a mile and an 1/8th seemed to be his max. His grandsire Dixieland Band who was by Northern Dancer, and we all know what he could produce, was several notches below a top racehorse counting the 1984 Mass. Handicap (G2) as his best win, but he did exceed expectations as a stallion. Sire of 117 SW from 1,279 foals he rarely sired anything top class but delivered graded winners with great consistency. UR's other cross to ND appears thru his dam's side thru Terpisichorist. Hansen carries 2x's to ND just not as close up. Both colts have 2x's to Raise A Native. Both have a cross to Seattle Slew and UR has 1 cross to Secretariat where Hansen has 2. The Seattle Slew difference is that  with UR it comes thru Capote who was mainly a 8.5 to 9f horse. Capote was known for siring fast, precocious 2 yr. olds. Hansen's cross comes through AP Indy who is a proven classic distance horse and multiple classic producing horse. On UR's dam's side his grandsire is Gone West, 1987 winner of the Dwyer Stakes, he produced a high percentage of stakes winners, but they tended to be short of the classic distance. He has 2 crosses to Mr. Prospector who has produced classic winning sons. UR's grand dam Terpsichorist, who was a turf horse,did ntr 11f in 1978. He has 2x's to Native Dancer.Thru UR's dam side, Gone West's dam Secrettame traces back to Tim Tam KD winner. (I saw him before he died) For the greatest majority though his pedigree is not distance endowed.

Hansen has AP Indy and Unbridled on his sire's side both being proven at the classic distance and beyond and produced the same. Unbridled produced Grindstone, Red Bullet, and Empire Maker. Grindstone himself produced a clssic winner. Unbridled is by Fappiano who was by Mr. Prospector. Fappiano was bigger and legger than most of Mr. Prospector's get, and his best decendents have generally been stayers. On his dam's side you have Temperence Hill who won the Blemont, Trravers, Suburban(before it was changed, the JCGC at 1 1/2 miles. Private Account also appears on his dam's side who is the sire of Personal Ensign. April Run also is on his dam's side who came in second in the Washington DC International (1 1/2 miles). She was also French Ch. 3yr old (81), Older Female and Ch. Female Turf in '82. Damascus is Private Account's sire who won the Preakness, Belmont, JCGC (1 1/2), Wood,Woodward (before it was watered down) Dwyer,  and the Travers. Olden times shows up here also and he won from 5/8ths of a mile to 1 3/4 miles. Run The Gantlet is also there who won the Man O' War and the Washington DC International. Even in his 5th generation over half have won or produced classic distance horses. UR does not.

What does all of this mean to some nothing,( and this is just scrapping the top) but without attention to pedigree then there would be no performance.

And now Ladies and Gentlemen, with 22 in a row sporting the 1/4 grab and all, He still made it look interesting yet awesome I give you the Horse of the Year.....

RAPID REDUX

the I read, he is the clear choice

Mz last year IS history for the newly turned 3yos,they are like growing teenagers.I know how to bet the derby future pool so that to cover 15 out the 20 horses without a lot of capital outlay is not so difficult for EXACTAs in a BOX.BTW I had Animal Kingdom in my super partial  wheel for the derby on the day of the race but I used him in the bottom half,unlike your friends I am very decisive in my betting and dont need any winning tickets as keepsakes.

Householder,

Havre de Grace was beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Game On Dude and 1/2 length by Ruler On Ice, that's not bad at all. And Drosselmeyer only beat her by 3 lengths. I don't get why you even mentioned Uncle Mo, he finished 10th. Uncle Mo is the horse who ran like a turtle and he certainly did not belong in the B.C. Classic!

UR was not tired???? Must have been a different race that I watched because they didn't show Hansen much going back to the winners circle they showed Rags and he was cooked, sorry to say. He nostrils were inside out on the walk back with the pony. They didn't show Hansen until they were cleaning his mouth where he bit his tongue. He can't get over 1 1/16. He has done it twice and won both. His pedigree says he will do it better than UR. I was high on Rags until I saw him walking back to the barn after the race. He was spent and if they don't get that veering under control he is never going to make it. It will be the same road Dublin drove. He moves away from a left handed whip. He has done it in 2 races. The last one it cost him, but who is to say that Hansen would not have held him off. Hansen has alot of grit and that it what makes a champion.

JerseyBoy

“Some people spend so much time discussing pedigree; you would think that there are several dominant sire lines to ponder when there are just a few: Raise A Native, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler and Hail to Reason.”

Cited above is the opening paragraph of your post on (04 Jan 2012 11:27 AM) It captured my attention. You are partially correct as there are two sire lines that were excluded from your list i.e., Ribot and Buckpasser. Admittedly Ribot and Buckpasser sire lines have only accounted for two and three derby winners respectively.

I happen to be one of the persons that focus on sire lines but do not considered myself a sire line prophet.  The Raise A Native sire line is associated with the winners of 47 Triple Crown races. I am always on the lookout for brilliant/exceptional 3YOs from this sire line as they seem to have the edge over all others. The leaders of the 3YO male division i.e., Union Rags, Hansen and Creative Cause are from the Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler sire lines. These sire lines finish a distance second and third to the RAN sire line. I am therefore not too focused them as I am compiling a list of the colts from the RAN sire line. You will note that the leading 2YO filly is from the RAN sire line. My present list of colts from the RAN sire line is very small right now. The list includes Secret Circle, Done Talking and Groovin Solo. Of the three, Secret Circle is probably the only one that you might know. However, I would place a Derby future wager on those three colts before a place one on Union Rags, Hansen and Creative Cause. Sounds crazy? Sure it does! Done Talking and Secret Circle were sired by sons of Unbridled who is the greatest extension of Mr. Prospector. Unbridled is one of three stallions that have sired a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown. His son Grindstone and grandson Birdstone have sired winner of Triple Crown races. Unbridled was the dam sire of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford; 2003 Wood Memorial winner and sire of Hansen, Tapit and third place finisher in the 2008 Derby Denis Of Cork. Unbridled’s record as a sire and broodmare sire make his grandsons ones to watch. Groovin Solo was sires by Bob and John a son Seeking the Gold sire of the monster Dubai Millennium and Belmont winner Jazil. Bob and John is a grandson of Mr. Prospector. Five of Mr. P’s grandsons have sired derby winners. These three colt can develop in the classic winners as they are from a sire line that appears unstoppable.

Tonka, I will say this again, you must look at the tail side of a colt's pedigree.  With a colt, I don't put much emphasis on the sire line.  With a filly I do.  The X chromosome carries much more genetic material than the Y. Forget Dixie Union, irrelevant.  The same thing was said about Bold Ruler, in Secretariat's racing career.  No Bold Ruler could go the distance.  Everyone forgot about the mare, Somethingroyal.  

Actually this is very simple science, not rocket science.

A horse's greatness is all about pedigree, jockey, trainer, and luck, not necessarily in that order. I have never bought a horse without looking at the pedigree first.

Tonka, he went 1 1/16 twice, not over.  He can't be rated, which some consider a flaw.  Sprinting may suit him.  Okay, we shall see.  Just remember what I have said about Hansen.  

Good luck to you, really I mean that; Hansen is a lovely horse, but IMO Union Rags is the better horse with an old time kind of pedigree.  I will be ecstatic to see both of them in the derby, they are both special.  I just favor Union Rags.

Tonka, Union Rags was not cooked.  He was ahead of Hansen right after the finish.  Hansen was terribly tired, Union Rags was not.  Also, Hansen has had a couple of slow works, so I'm worried about him.  Union Rags is working, but has not had a timed work.  Really, I like Hansen.  He is a fine colt, but unrateable.  

Coldfacts, Secretariat and Buckpasser produced some great mares.  What I like to see in the tail side of a colt's pedigree, is Buckpasser and Princequillo mares.    

tonka,

Very nice post comparing the pedigrees of Eclipse Awards contenders Union Rags and Hansen in terms stamina inherited.

I think that you're mistaken about Union Rags on three counts.

1) His sire Dixie Union did not have a long enough stud career for analysts to be definitive about his inability to throw classic distance horses.  In fact, on a similar cross to that which produced Union Rags, he sired Grasshopper, beaten 3/4 length by Street Sense in the 2007 Travers (10 Furlongs in 2:02) and Gone Astray, impressive winner in 2009 of both the Pensilvania and Ohio Derbies at 9 Furlongs as well as running a good second to Blame at the same distance in the Curlin Stakes the same year.

2) His grandsire Dixieland Band is a well established, multiple Derby-winner-producing influence, albeit as a broodmare sire. There is no apparent reason why he can't breakthrough on the sire side. Horses with DWPI within the first three generations must be respected going 10 Furlongs.

2) The major stamina influence in his pedigree which you overlooked or may not be cognisant of is the brilliant Epsom Derby winner and one of the all-time greatest sire of sires, Hyperion which is himself a son of English Triple Crown winner and reputed stamina influence Gainsborough.  Union Rags is inbreed to Hyperion on his sire's side 6X7X8 and on his dam side 8X7X5. A report from his breeder suggested that he has exhibited traits in temperament reminiscent of the great Hyperion (take the hint). With additional Triple Crown winners Nijinsky, Seattle Slew and Secretariat (totalling 4)fairly close up, don't be surprised if the 34 year old Triple Crown drought gets broken this year.

Union Rags is bred-in-the-purple my friend. Stay tuned.

Well, I will presume that we can all agree that Rapid Redux deserves congratulations and the Special Eclipse Award.

And Kingkapper, I am sorry I spelled your name wrong in my last post.  I also sympathize with you on having the right horse but in the wrong bet.  Now, if they ever invent the 1 - 3 or 1 - 4 Exacta, I will be Queen of the 'cappers ( or 'mappers).

Both are a bit off topic but;

Quick note on Havre De Grace, her first start of 2012 will be in the $100,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes, ungraded March 17 at Fair Grounds. Yet another uninspiring race, let alone start to what I'm assuming is supposed to be a championship campaign. Yes I realize horses aren't machines but that is such a soft spot or a possible HOY.

And on Rapid Redux, so elated that he will be honored the Special Eclipse Award!! Completely and utterly deserved! It would have been tragic if the sport turn a cold shoulder toward him. And congrats to him on 22 in a row!

The favorite in this years Breeders Cup was Flat Out---he would've been 15-1 in Tiznow's 2000 over Giant's Causeway, Albert The Great, Captain Steve (underrated), Fusaichi Pegasus and Lemon Drop Kid--no, Flat Out, this year's BC Classic fave--would've been 20-1 in the '00 Classic! The HOY is Harve De Grace--so what if she's not The Mare, they showed up--they fired a good shot against a paltry bunch--they weren't good enough--which female horse sans one can say they were 4-1 and a close 4th in the Classic?...Acclamation is my close second! His Del Mar form was better than Tizway's--I know the Whitney this year was super tough--he won easy over one weird surface--Acclamation won the Eddie Read, long a signature race out here, won by greats--Acclamation cantered! Then he ran eyeballs over Game On Dude, finally holding Twirling Candy at bay--by the way, it was Twirling Candy who got my vote for best horse--I believe Twirlybird was the closest thing we saw to greatness this past year, and make no mistake about it, Twirling Candy was great--but it was Acclamation who parlayed that historic Eddie Read romp with that historic front running dog fight he had in the Pacific Classic over proven horses--Acclimation was lights out for several months--he belongs in the argument, and I look with much anticipation for him to mature into the best horse in the US! Hansen deserves the Eclipse! NO BRAINER! He won other races, by the way! All solid! He beat the so-called better horse--ON THE SQUARE--he wired a tough field, including that Creative Cause from Mike's barn, himself a solid horse with a real good disposition--he looks like something nice--Hansen wired them all--when THAT ALONE--should suffice--after all, it wasn't front-runner paradise out there--Hansen is the better horse, mark my word--Hansen will develop into a better horse than the big beautiful guy I cannot remember his name--he finished second--I remember that proud grey head, prancing stride--of Hansen! The BCup winner, and DESERVED--two year old champ!

The horse who will wire a two-turn Breeders Cup race like Hansen did--will get the Derby--he'll get it!

Jason,

Those of us who appreciate the greatness of Zenyatta have nothing to "get over" other than her retirement.  

Amazombie was my this year version of Life Is Sweet--my only winner of the Cup! I loved him, bet him, then had to sweat out a challenge in deep stretch--Amazombie is the type of closer you like--he fires big at 6fur, giving him an edge on deep closers while having the speed to catch the early leaders! I wouldn't trade places with Baffert/Factor--I like Zombie right back in this year's BCup!

Mary,

“I will say this again, you must look at the tail side of a colt's pedigree.  With a colt, I don't put much emphasis on the sire line.”

I find your statement above interesting. I focus on both sire line and broodmare line. I have posted several time that the Raise A Native sire line is associated with winner of 47 Triple Crown races. The winners of these 47 TC races were produced from 34 mares. The majority of the mares were moderate at best on the track. A lot of these mares were bred to other sire lines without the level of success achieved when crossed with the RAN sire line. On more than one occasion horses from the RAN sire line finished one, two, and three in the Derby. In the 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide runner-up Empire Maker and third place finisher Peace Rules were all from RAN sire line. This level of success cannot be by mere coincidence. High profile stallions A P Indy, Storm Cat and Deputy Minister all sired great sons. These sons have been bred to some of the best mares to leave the track. Collectively the sons of these three mega stallions have sired the winner of one Triple Crown race. The grandsons and great grandsons are on zero in TC races.

Why is the RAN sire line so successful? If you theory is correct it’s because of the mares. Well the other sire lines get good books of mares as well and trail RAN sire line by a wide margin. When stallions from a particular sire line are represented by winners of the Dubai World Cup, Melbourne Cup, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Epsom Derby and Pr. De L'Arc De Triomphe, broodmares are not the primary reason. Native Dancer the sire of Raise A Native was called The Grey Ghost. In a particular Kentucky Derby, Native Dancer was reflected in the pedigrees of all the starters

On the subject of sire lines of all the derby nominations does anyone know the breakdown in sire lines,and yes I am lookin to make a prophet(profit)

Mary I will have to disagree with you slightly not entirely.The part you left out is intangibles qualities that ALL great atheletes have that sets them apart.If not can you name a full sibling of a Kentucky Derby winner that has also won the derby?Let me know if there is.

Coldfacts:

I think we are at cross purposes, something that seems to happen every time pedigree is discussed.

I never question sire line statistics because for my purpose they are irrelevant. We are not addressing the same purpose.

Pedigree is important for breeding horses and for assessing the potential of untested horses. I have no such purpose. I am a bettor and for me the characteristics a horse has acquired and that horse’s ability are evident in the horse’s performances. As my father used to say, you do not use a lamp to find what is visible in broad daylight.

Let us say that sire line X is the most prolific producer of Classic winners. In an upcoming race that sire line has 7 starters. There are 20 starters in the field. In picking the winner, do you look at the sires and say this sire line has 7 starters and will produce the winner? Or do you look at the ability of all the starters?

I look at the performances of all the starters. I could not care less which sire line the horses came from.

In any event, even if I say the winner will come from sire line X, I still have to choose from 7 horses.

There is one statistics that is worth noting. The most prolific sires in the world today are Galileo and Montjeu. Yet, fewer  than 8 % of their offspring ever win a stakes race of any kind. See URL below.

Here is one for the pedigree prophets. Explain why Discreetly Mine is a sprinter and not a router.

URL:

www.sportingpost.co.za/.../montjeu-vs-galileo-who-is-better-sarah-whitelaw

Happy New Year everyone.

Zen's Auntie and rorschach1992 i second your posts.

Rapid Redux, almost single handedly, along with his owner Mr. Cole and his trainer Mr. Wells, J.D. Acosta his jockey and his special cast of caregivers in the barn, have contributed to an amazing feat in this day and age.

Watching the race, Rapid Redux noticed Awesome Rhythm about the 8th pole and 'kicked it up a notch'

with a nod of agreement from Acosta

and prevailed at the wire for the 22nd time. I repeated that for the simple reason, i may never in my lifetime be able to type those words again. But hope springs eternal for all of racing.

Congratulations Rapid Redux, you are my champion bar none and you aren't even a gray! :) An extra mint to his sire Pleasantly Perfect

for a job well done for sure.

Thanks Jason.

Jersey Boy- Discreetly Mine is a half brother to Discreet Cat.  Mineshaft has had some offspring who have won at 9 furlongs, but not longer.  Discreetly Mine did win at 8.5 furlongs, so he did go further than the usual sprints.  Mineshaft probably imparts more stamina than Forestry does.  So the fact that Discreetly Mine excelled at sprinting is not surprising.  The fact that both these horse come out of an Alabama winner is not quite that surprising either as many top sprinters in the past as well as sprinters in Europe today have stamina influences.  As far as using pedigree for betting, I agree it is not the best angle.  I look at it in maiden turf races and maiden synthetic races.  But, I am not surprised that Discreetly Mine showed talent at sprinting.  It will be interesting to see what kind of offspring he and his half brother throw in the shed!

I agree with Jason's picks except for:

Older Male: Tizway....Ran the most impressive 2 races of any horse this year.

Trainer: Billy Mott...Finished the year in championship style on championship days.

Apprentice jockey: Ryan Curatolo

Jersey - Discretely Mine is a favorite of mine for his power and his composition. I think phenotype tells his story. Discretely Mine is a well built individual with a short back and tight coupling if you put 150 lbs on him and tried to pass him off as a registered QH no one would bat an eye. In fact I think he would be a great QH improvement stallion but that’s off topic. DM’s whole body type at the handy 16.1 to me just looks like one big burst of speed ready to go. A little more neck on him might add to his balance and help lengthen his stride, but its not awful.  His hocks while nearly even with his knee are higher off the ground and longer in proportion to his upper leg than we might like to see for best late race stride efficiency still  nicely proportioned balanced columns of bone one each corner. These Longer cannons tell on the distance horse.  I look for a much bigger difference in proportional lower leg length to upper in a distance and especially a late closing horse, a horse that can lengthen late.  

As far as pedigree you got me. Must be mamas side? Sure looks like his kin can get 10f but as an individual DM just looks built to go fast under a mile.  

What’s interesting is that DM really has an obviously different conformation than Mineshaft look at father and son side by side and see the different proportions in Dads legs he has distinctly lower hocks and longer hip to hock ratio when compared to rear lower leg length.  Mineshaft stands over more ground is longer backed, and is a bit scopier looking than DM yes he’s only a colt really but these angles and ratios are what they are – I do see where he gets his stubby neck from though. LOL  Some of us can pour over pedigrees all day (fun too) I could look at horses ALL day…

Mz there is a 1-3 exacta,but it is not the order of finish but,the closing odds.The oddsboard is an overlooked piece of information that is really one of the ONLY things that is KNOWN about a particular horses chance in that race or I should say the perception of the entire group of bettors have of that horse in that race before the gates open.Mz if you would like I can find out how many exactas I hit in 2010,a winning year for me if by chance you think I am just talking,without actually making winning bets.Of course if I go thru the trouble and it can be verified,I would want to wager you that in fact I was telling the truth.

I agree with Householder,

Unlike Zenyatta, Havre De Grace's performance showed that she didn't belong with the boys. I don't even think she would have handled Royal Delta in the Ladies Classic. Zenyatta won Horse of the Year in 2010 because she both proved to be the best horse in the nation and had a solid resume to back it up. Havre De Grace isn't even in the top 5 horses to race this year, and that's rather sad considering how weak each division has been. As Matthew W said, Flat Out, the favorite of last year's Classic, would've been 20-1 in 2000. I'll go a step further and say he'd be 30-1 in both of Zenyatta's Classics. Havre De Grace was able to accomplish the same feat as Rachel in that she won the Woodward against a pathetic group of older males. I hope Havre De Grace's non-threatening BC performance makes us all appreciate Zenyatta a little more. There's a reason she's the only mare to finish first or second in the Classic. She left a great void when she retired and those of you trying to fill it with false prophets are wasting your time. There will only be one Zenyatta.

Took Leroy's Dynameoux in Shoviver today--thought it a very hard card to find a show horse! Cook Inlet, Carousel, Compari, Put It There were others I considered, I choose a proven closer, in a race with speed, really don't like the 24 ft rails out but Rosario can/should get a piece of that race, he is the class....

papillon,

 You stop saying nasty things about Paula.

  March 18th babies are Pisces and we aren't wishy-washy.  Sometimes we just have a hard time making up our minds.

 But this leaves a picture in my mind of somebody wandering along the shedrow, sidling up to a stall and saying "hey, baby, what's your sign?"  I thought that pick-up line fell out of favor a very long time ago.  It didn't work all that well in bars and I doubt in works much better in barns.

papillon:

I apologize.   It was Sylvester, not you, who made a nasty remark to Paula.  I think we could cut back on the insults toward both people and horses.  At least the horses aren't trying to annoy anybody.

How does Calumet get to join the breeding business again after the horrific fate suffered by Alydar?

I agree Stevebisquick.  There will only be only one horse who couldn't travel, couldn't race in the mud, couldn't beat males on dirt like RA and HDG did, hid in gender restricted races in CA and had to be given HOTY when it was earned by Blame. That honor goes to the one and only Zenyatta.  The most overrated horse in the last 20 years.    

Stevebiscuit Harve De Grace deserves HOY--HOY doesn't go the the horse who would beat the other--rather, HOY goes to the horse with the best campaign--Ladies Secret and Kotashan and Favorite Trick would beat them all at 1 1/4 dirt? No they would not, but they were deserving HOYs! As is Harve, she showed up to the big dance, indeed it was her nose beat to Blind Luck that sealed the deal for me--that and her overall season, which was tops in my book....

HDG is at Fairgrounds I see from the title to an article on this website.I dont have her pps in front of me but with her style Fairgrounds is a great place for her 1st off the layoff.She might not have run there because Larry Jones took over her training after the year started.Jones takes a lot of horses to Oaklawn also,thats not bad either for her.I think she is better off making her first back at one of these venues rather than at Gulfstream where even two lengths behind is hard to make up,on a similar topic if any of you care about the 3yo filly division catch the replay of Miss Neta in the 9 at Gulfstream today.

Glad/fortunate to not listen to friend's advice on Cook's Inlet for my Shovivor play--6 for 7 in the money maiden got caught in a speed duel--now all I need is for my horse, Leroy's Dynameoux, to come along for third (at least) in today's feature--a tough card to find a show horse! Maidens! I try to keep my pick to a smaller field/closer/type, just something that can keep me going--think today, if Compari fails from his inside post, can be a day where 1000 players drop off the wagon! 'm looking for Leroy to come-a-rinnin' when the real racing starts!

Zen's Auntie:

Thank you for your response. It was very informative. I myself could never reach any conclusion by looking at horses and examining their pedigree. But I do study pedigrees to assess a horse's pontential when the horse is trying something new or is unraced.

In the future I will spend more time looking at their confirmation as well. I will give it a try.

Footlick:

Thanks for the response. That horse's speed has always fascinated me.

The Hansen vs Union Rags pedigree for stamina comments have been very interesting.  I'm going to trust that what has been posted is accurate; that said, I don't think there is a lot to pick between them so far as which colt has the better distance pedigree.  What I do see as a major issue for Hansen is his running style.  Unless he can be taught to rate, he's not going to get the Derby distance.  He seemed stretched to his limit in the BCJC race.  I won't question his heart and courage though.

Regarding who should win the Eclipse for 2-yr old if "head-to-head" match-up determines the winner, then it's Hansen.  But, if that were true, Blame would have been 2010 HOY.  It's unfortunate there is so little criteria in voting for the Eclipse Awards.  Were there more clear criteria there would not be so much subjectivity (I sure hope that's a word)and popularity(of the horse, connections, etc)  would not be such a major factor.  Then again, we wouldn't have such lively discussions, would we?

My take is the award in each category should go to the horse (owner, breeder, jockey) with a combination of the toughest and most consistent campaign.  If only consistancy were considered, then hands-down, 2011 HOY would be Rapid Redux.  But I feel you also have to consider the strength of the campaign.  How often did the horse run?  How many starts were stakes? How many graded stakes?  How many stakes winners did the horse defeat during the year? Did the horse run and win only in restricted races or was the horse successful outside his/her own division?

I'm glad they are giving Rapid Redux a Special Eclipse.  He most definitely deserves it, but he does not deserve HOY.  Not by my definition of what HOY means.

For what it's worth, I feel the HOY finalists should be Havre De Grace; Caleb's Posse and Royal Delta. Who should win? I'm still studying on it!

Mary: you said " Come on, Hansen does not have the stamina to run longer distances"

Really?  Seattle Slew, AP Indy, Unbridled, Storm Cat, Secretariat.  Seems to me Hansen is loaded with stamina top and bottom.  Union Rags, on the other hand, was sired by Dixie Union who never ran 10f.  However, he does get stamina from the dam side.

And I seem to remember another front runner who didn't like to rate.  He won the Triple Crown in 1977....Seattle Slew.

The nominations have been announced.  I'm happy to see Rapid Redux will have earned a special Eclipse, and has won the Vox Populi.  However, Jason, I'm exceptionally confused by the fact that the nominees for HOY will not be announced until the night the award is given.  This seems highly unusual and extremely suspect...and infinitely unfair to the fans of the sport.

It's disappointing to me that Ruler On Ice seems to get the cold shoulder by the industry. The Belmont winner gets overlooked too often, especially taking into consideration what a tough race it is to win. If Animal Kingdom and Shackleford were good enough to be finalists for eclipse awards, Ruler On Ice deserves to be in their company. I hope Calebs Posse gets the honors. Good luck to you next year Ice Ice, some horses get no respect. Chalk it up to ignorance.

Thanks Jean from Chicago! ITA with all those that are thrilled for Rapid Redux and his connections. He is very deserving of this award and then some. Penny said it very well in her statement for all those who might think otherwise. Jason, I think you are throwing grenades again. John Shirreffs is not the reason Zenyatta lost by three inches to Blame. Quality Road is the main reason, GOD Bless him.

2:24 Glad to know that I'm not the only one haunted by the real story behind Alydar's "murder". The old Calumet is dead, but the name brings chills to a horse lover such as myself. I have a large portrait of Alydar in my living room and he will always be close to my heart, I don't want to forget. I'm sure the industry wants to sweep the ugly truth about Alydar's death under the rug, but most people know what happened to that magnificent animal. The tragic fact is that Alydar wasn't the first and won't be the last thoroughbred to be killed for insurance money. It's so heartbreaking.

What is up with this not announcing the HOTY candidates? I don't like that either. Do they really think we won't find out? Are they worried about fan pressure a la Zenyatta? Just wondering.

I am a proffessional gambler and theirs no doubt Union Rags will win the award.Hansen got the luckiest trip and he wont be able to beat Union Rags as the distances get longer.Any real pro knows that even if Hansen wins the trophy he wont collect the check.

ksweatman9- JT Lundy's name should bring chills to you.  Calumet was legendary until he got control.  When I think of Calumet i think of all the great horses they bred and raced.  When I think of him and what he did to Calumet, then I get chills.

Matthew W, my feeling on HOTY is that it should go to the best overall horse. I didn't feel HDG proved to be anywhere near that in the Classic. That's my criteria, I don't expect the voters will feel the same way.

Sylvester, let's see if I understand you correctly. Zenyatta shipped 3 times, winning 2 and missing by a head once. So that's a horse that can't ship? Great logic genius! Couldn't race in the mud? So if a horse never did something that automatically means they can't? By that logic I could say Rachel never faced Zenyatta, therefore she would never have beaten her. And let's take a look at your third poorly thought out statement, "she couldn't beat males on dirt". Next time, think before you type. Comparing Rachel and Grace's male competition to Zenyatta's is an absolute joke. In the 2010 Classic alone, Zenyatta faced a far superior field of males than Rachel and Grace faced in their entire careers. Grace couldn't threaten in one of the weakest Classic fields ever, and the best horse Rachel ever faced was Summer Bird who could hardly be compared to the likes of Lookin At Lucky. You seem to think that looking at their records against males alone while completely ignoring the quality of competition is an accurate comparison. Sorry, it doesn't work like that. You seem to have the argumentative skills of a third grader. And she hid in gender restricted races? You'd better take a look at the horses who ran in the very same races a year after her retirement. Switch, Blind Luck, Havre De Grace, Zazu, Ultra Blend, Ask The Moon, Champagne D'Oro...all grade 1 winners! The competition was ducking Zenyatta, not the other way around. Zenyatta showed up for the Apple Blossom, the 2009 HOTY ducked the challenge. A year later, the likely HOTY ran in the very same race. And lastly, the 2010 HOTY was earned by Blame? In what way? He had a weaker resume and greatly benefitted from Zenyatta's troubled trip. Anyone with an objective mind could see that. The only injustice about the 2010 HOTY voting was that it wasn't Zenyatta's third straight HOTY. Sorry if it's too hard for you to swallow, but Zenyatta is the greatest female racehorse to ever live and one of the all time greats. What's sad about guys like you is that you don't even realize how outnumbered you are. Your petty comments will always be drowned out by those who have actual credibility. I have yet to hear one credible source say Zenyatta isn't one of the all time greats. Heck, even Zenyatta's biggest critic Andrew Beyer admitted that Zenyatta at least the greatest female racehorse of all time. If you can convince me you know more about greatness than Bob Baffert, Allen Jerkens, Bill Nack, or John Nerud then go ahead and try. They all believe Zenyatta to be one of the greatest there ever was. Keep fighting the current if you want, but one day you'll understand it's a losing battle.

Slew & Paula,

I believe that the HOY finalists are usually not announced ahead of time because doing so would reveal the winners of other divisions.   Last year, the finalists were announced because Zenyatta and Blame were overwhelming leaders in their respective divisions.  At least, that what I think I remember, or I might have just made it up.

Where's Bob/Ted?  Did he turn into a pumpkin when the  ball dropped?

mary--hansen has had two works in the last two weeks, and will work again this saturday--his last work, in 48 for 4f, was not slow, and his first work after his vacation was purposefully slow--he was physically restrained and barely allowed to even get into a gallop before he was clocked so as not to allow him to build up his speed.

personally, i'm convinced you don't know didly squat about anything you spout off about.

you were flat wrong about union rags's birth date (despite lecturing me about it and despite lording your alleged pedigree acumen over everyone--acumen that can't even properly identify foal dates).

you have been purposefully insinuating and misleading about hansen's recent works (again, he's the only colt who has recovered sufficiently from his BCJ effort   to even be working again yet); and you are deceptive and obsfucatory about hansen's pedigree--

hansen has A.P Indy, Unbridled, Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Raise a Native, and Northern Dancer on top--and not one sprinter.

hansen has Storm Cat, Raise A Native, Secretariat, Damascus, and Northern Dancer on the bottom.

there is nothing in hansen's pedigree that says "sprinter." of the two, rags's pedigree is indisputably the more sprint influenced.

it is a fact that no dixie union has ever won past a mile and an 8th, and that most can't get past a mile and 1/16th (not unlike the sire-line of the last saratoga-juvie-superstar before him).

if dams could impact stamina as much as you maintain, we wouldn't be able to say that no indian charlie has ever won past a mile and an 8th or that not dixie union has ever won past a mile and an 8th, regardless of dam. but we can, because despite their dams, they all have had similar distance limitations. funny how that works huh?

it is a fact that tapits routinely get a mile an 8th and several have won at a mile an a 1/4. and we know from hansen's many successful half sisters (like zazu), through his sire tapit,  that tapit's can stay a course of ground.

we get it--you've convinced yourself that hansen's decisive win over your favorite horse was a fluke. fine. we'll soon see whether it was a fluke or whether wiring the field on that dead, tiring, peanut butter rail in 1:44 was fluke or not. but, until your horse starts working again at all, you've got no standing to malign hansen's fitness and soundness, based on his solid quality works. none. what. so. ever.

on a completely different note--i see that, much as i predcited, our most likely hoty the year is not only not going to race next in open company, she isn't even going to race in graded company....and the peanut gallery is completely silent...

jean in chicago-- i'm sorry but i have know idea what you are talking about.  i assure that my comments about each horse's astrological sign had nothing to do with paula or hitting on anyone (it was just funny to me that so far they have run true to sign)--and i don't think that anyone could reasonably construe my posts in that way tbh.

I think times have changed in racing. A situation where a horse  dies under suspicious circumstances, like Alydar, would be thoroughly investigated. Especially a high profile horse. Racing could not afford to turn a blind eye to a similar situation.  Calumet Farm was a financial disaster (or malfeasance) that turned into a tragedy. I don't think Lundy served enough time for his fraud conviction. As for Alydar, what he did to that horse was monstrous.

JerseyBoy

All your points regarding pedigree are valid. However, when one sire line is associated with the winners of 47 Triple Crown races and the sire line that is second is associated with 13, horses from the dominant sire line should neither be under estimated nor ignored. There is one major event and two major races in the US that have convinced me that the RAN sire line is the REAL DEAL.  

The Kentucky Derby is an event in which thoroughbred horses participate. The last 10 time this event was held the RAN sire line produced six of the winners.

I consider the Belmont Stakes the second major race in the US. I know there are those that will disagree. However when there is a popular potential Triple Crown contender in the field there is normally about ninety to one hundred thousand racing fans at Belmont Park. The last 10 time the Belmont Stakes was contested the RAN sire line produced seven of the winners.

The Breeder Cup Classic is the richest race contested in the US. The last 10 times BCC was contested the RAN sire line produced five of the winners. A Zenyatta  victory would have made it 6 of 10.

Base on the dominance of this sire line, if a horse from it is good enough to make a major race, I am forced to factor it into by wagers. Mine That Bird finished last in the Breeder Cup Juvenile and six months later he silenced Churchill Downs. He finished ahead of PionnerOf The Nile another colt form the RAN sire line. The exacta paid $2,000. How could the betting public allow the most powerful and successful sire line in Triple Crown history produce a $2,000 exacta? The RAN sire line produced another mega exacta with War Emblem and Proud Citizen two colts sired by sons of Mr. Prospector.

Many horses do not run to their pedigrees. However, it appears the DNA of the RAN sire line horses is transformed when they hit the surfaces at Churchill Downs, Pimlico and Belmont Park. I would not suggest that you change your wagering and evaluation philosophy. However, based on the COLD FACTS above, those who ignore horses from RAN sire line do so at their own perils.

KINGKAPPER,

For the records I am not paid to make submissions to these blogs. I am interested to know why you are harboring this speculation. Mr. Shandler has many supporters and it is puzzling as to why you have implied that some are paid to do same. On the subject of grammar, I am sometimes embarrassed when observe some grammatical errors contained in my posts. Most of my post are compiled after working and driving for long hours. Sometimes a tired brain and tired eyes can distort what is displayed on a monitor. Those of us who take pride in what we write need to spend more time in the editing zone. Then again there are those who have no standards. One Love!  

Footlick You are so correct. It's funny how one devastating incident, one act of evil can wipe out years, decades of goodness. Calumet was home to some of the greatest thoroughbreds to ever grace a track, Citation, Whirlaway, Bull Lea, Tim Tam, Alydar ofcoarse, and the list goes on and on. I know this, but Alydar's suffering and death is what comes to mind when the word Calumet is mentioned. Lundy was the man responsible for destroying Alydar and a great racing empire. He's got alot of baggage to carry to his grave.

 Slew, Love your posts.  I couldn't help but chime in because I remember when Dixie Union was a three year old I thought he was a lock to win the mile and a quarter Travers.  I still believe he was compromised when Solis had him down on a dead rail the whole trip and he tired.  I'm sure there have been other stamina bred mares mated to Dixie Union over the years but I can't name a single on who was top tier over a distance of ground.  I agree that it's Union Rags more so than Hansen who may not like the longer distances.  Also I do think that for the purposes of the two year old championship whether or not a horse will relish a mile and a quarter is totally irrelevant.  Hansen's the champ.  I agreed with all of Jason's picks with the exception of Union Rags at first but now after reading some of these posts I find myself leaning toward Tizway for best older male.

Hey criminal type correct me if Im wrong but if either hanson or Rags win they will get a trophy and a check.

Mary, it wasn't that a Bold Ruler couldn't get the distance; many BRs had won races at 10f or more by 1973, but not until they had a little maturity on them - fall 3yos and older horses. It was that Nasrullah temperament, that immature need to lead that defeated many earlier BRs in the classics. Bold Ruler himself won several races at 10f.

"You just reminded me that it might be fun to pull out some of the older ones and look back on others who "dropped out" of the pages: Native Dancer (it surprised me how white he got over time),"

Grey horses do that; it's a progressive condition. Spectacular Bid looked more brown/black (gun-metal grey) when he was racing but turned white with age.

"*Ambiorix (how the heck did you pronounce his name and what was the * for?),"

Ambiorix was the Latin rendering of the name of Celtic war leader who fought against Julius Caesar. So, ahm-BEE-or-icks. But he was a French-bred horse, so they probably said it "ahm-bee-or-EE."

The asterisk means that he was imported, bred in another country. Once upon a time, the stud book referred to such horses as 'imported Glencoe'. Then they used the form '*Glencoe', with a footnote at the bottom of the page saying '*imported.' Then, since everybody knew what the footnote would say, they started to omit it. If he were a current horse, he would be Ambiorix (FRA).

" Round Table (does he still have any tail male representatives doing something at stud?)..."

K One King, son of champion British 2yo Apalachee, was in Louisiana last I saw. Round Table had a couple of sons in Argentina who were classic sires, might have sons still at stud.

To all who still care about Alydar:

There is an informative and brutally honest article i accessed by googling J.T.Lundy. I was interested in knowing if he was prosecuted. Have not yet gotten far enough into the multi chapter article by Chuck Hustmyre entitled UNBRIDLED GREED but it lays it out chapter and verse how it all started.

The article was written almost 10 years ago July 2002. I wonder if given the chance would the same thing have happened to a person with that high a price on their head.

Skip Hollandsworth wrote an article for Texas Monthly in June 2001 entitled "The Killing of

Alydar."

Judge was unable to find by a preponderance of evidence that J.T. Lundy was guilty, but he gave him 4 1/2 years anyway.

Footlick - where is he today? I have not found that info yet.

Sylvester

No one cares what you think,especially indviduals that's ACTUALLY a factor in racing.

Linda in Texas---The book "Wild Ride" by Ann Auerbach tells the complete story of Alydar's fracture and death, as well as the sordid fraud of J. T. Lundy. Dr. Larry Bramlage gave testimony in the federal case in Houston. Lundy deserved a longer sentence, but as you said, the judge felt unable to do so based on the evidence he had.

Well for theres a first for everything,thank you for replying to a post directed to you Cold Facts.I wonder if you know the breakdown for the Derby nominees as to the sire line RAN,ND,and any others that have numerous nominees.

Footlick, i found him. After being released for serving time for Bank Fraud,J.T. Lundy was out in a few short months. Was at a Keeneland Sale even supposedly looking for prospects for bloodstock a few years back.

His son followed in his footsteps of bilking people by selling breeding rights to horses he didn't have access to. He was prosecuted in 2007.

Yes, sounds like they both have a lot of baggage to take to their graves.

I cannot imagine why father and son are allowed to even be on the same grounds with anything having to do with Thoroughbred Race Horses.

I am off my soapbox. Sorry, just never knew the real story. This was an off topic post but primed by previous posts about Calumet

Farm.

I love them all, horses,farms, barns,people who love horses and those who own, bet, care for, write about and live horses. It is a childhood thing that i have never outgrown, and it is way too late to even try to now.

I have a thought/question, had Rapid Redux not been gelded, would his worth be more than it is under the circumstances today? And his coloring, i find his sire is brown. Rapid Redux has the brighter reddish tint that

reminds me of Secretariat's coat and Shackleford's i might add.

As for the ongoing discussion of Hansen and Union Rags. They will be proving some of us right and some of us wrong. That is what makes horse racing such fun.

Pedigree Ann: not to mean anything but I need the sarcastic emoticon.  I KNOW what the asterisk means.  I KNOW grey horses get whiter.  I KNOW how to pronounce Ambiorix  (French) pronounciation.

Thank you, however for the K One King info.  Hope the Round Table's hang in -- he was a wonderful horse and doesn't deserve to be forgotten.  

(sigh! - I am having a BAAADDDD week so far.  Cut me some slack, OK?)

(anybody got any really, really good wine?)

Sorry: hit "submit" too fast.

Still think Alydar was murdered.

That was quite touching Stevebisquick.  I had to go put my cowboy boots on because did it ever get deep.  Way deep.  Congratulations, you have now taken the title away from Paula Higgins as the most simpleminded blogger on Bloodhorse.   If you think winning the Vanity, Lady’s Secret and Clement Hirsch is more impressive than the Stephen Foster, Whitney, and Breeders Cup then there really isn’t any help for you.  I hope you’re not over 65 because if so, I recommend you keep your opinions to yourself otherwise you might find yourself in a nursing home.  Zenyatta was scratched from the La Troienne in 2009.  Her cowardly connections would’ve scratched in the 2011 BC since the track was muddy then too.  Now take off your cheerleading uniform with the Z on front and put down your pink and teal pompoms.  She wasn’t as good as Blame.  No horse was last  year.   Learn it and live it.  

i disagree with grace as the hoy, i mean which males did she beat in the very weak woodward?  acclamation beat better males than she beat.  and he beat game on dude, who easily beat her, and an overrated flat out.  otherwise, game on dude should win based on his body of work this past season, and his strong showing in the classic. shack shouldn't even be in the running for 3yr. old male. ruler is a far better horse.  

Sorry, Pedigree Ann: I did not mean to be snarky.  I was just setting out some comments about how uneducated I was when I started to pay attention to pedigrees and stuff.

I have gotten better.

And I did not mean anything nasty about my comments.

(I am generally a nice person ... unless you talk to my sister, who keeps telling me, as I cross the border, to: "Shut UP!  Don't make any "funny" comments to the Border Crossing Agents -- Americans = paranoid -- and just smile!"

(Her advice is the only reason I am not now in Guantanamo, I think)

(We don't have a Guantanamo.  We just have to watch Fox for some TV shows every one in a while -- oops!  Sorry Linda in Texas)

I will now sign off.

SYLVESTER,

You must be new to horse racing...

THE MOST OVERRATED HORSE are these cookie cutter 5-9 furlong horses we have been breeding..

1. Rachel Alexandra

2. Uncle Mo

3. Quality Road

None of these horses would even be considered good when the great routers ran. Horses that cannog run 10 furlongs today are just getting the hype based on their Beyer at a mile or so....

Sylvester = GULLIBLE easily manipulated by the racing media..

Hey if you want to see a resume of at a very good horse Alysheba or Easy Goer are good examples.

Check their resume, you missed out. and if you tell me you saw these horses run then those 3 listed up there are allowance type horses.

Linda in Texas- I can't find anything out about his whereabouts either.  The most recent thing I can find out about the family was the fraudulent stallion season sale that his son did on a family friend.  That was in 2009 I believe.  They also tried to buy a Presidential pardon for JT through Roger Clinton when JT was convicted.  Some Venezuelan coal mining stock or something like that.  It just amazes me.  Sadly, I'm sure there are alot more.  They are just the ones who got caught.

Jason- do you still favor Musical Romance or would you pick either Hilda's Passion or Sassy's Image?

KINGKAPPER,

To best of my knowledge the nominations for the 2012 Derby and Triple Crown have not been published as yet. Irrespective of the composition of the nomination, the RAN sire line will rule supreme in the TC races. “Done Talking”

Ranagulzion,

“His grandsire Dixieland Band is a well established, multiple Derby-winner-producing influences, albeit as a broodmare sire. There is no apparent reason why he can't breakthrough on the sire side.”

My learned friend your cold fact above cannot be challenged. Dixieland Band was the dam sire of Derby winners Street Sense and Monarchies. He was also dam sire of the ill fated Derby runner-up Eight Belles. You therefore should have on you short list the colts whose dams were sired by this great broodmare sire. Secret Circle and Done Talking are two such colts. Interestingly both were sire by sons of Unbridled the best Triple Crown sire in the last 15 years. The sons of best Triple Crown sire  in the last 15 years crossed with broodmares sired by the best Derby broodmare in the last 15 years has enormous possibilities.  

Your speculation that Dixieland Band should be able to breakthrough as a Derby winning sire has some validity to it. History suggests he should have a chance. How many successful Derby winning broodmare sires were also sires of Derby winners? Well I have charted about 85 years of Derby history and it reflects some positives in this department.

Sir Gallahad was broodmare sire of two Derby winners and also sired two winners.

Blenheim was broodmare sire of three Derby winners and also sired two winners.

Bull Lea was broodmare sire of one Derby winner and also sired three winners

Native Dancer was broodmare sire of one Derby winner and also sired two winners

Sweep was broodmare sire of three Derby winner and sired (zero) winners

Heliopolis was broodmare sire of two Derby winner and sired (zero) winners

NB: Two of the colts on my short list are in action on Saturday i.e., Alpha and the one you disparaged Out of Bounds. Alpha is the ML favorite. Out Of Bounds has to contend with the speed of Secret Circle. Interestingly he had Mr. Gomez on board. Gun Bow is of the opinion that OOB is a grinder. I guess we will find out.

J T Lundy was punished for fraud, not murdering Alydar, but the evidence presented in court was overwhelming as far as proving that the great sire was murdered and how it was carried out. The jury however, wouldn't find that Lundy was the one responsible for the act. We are talking about a horse, so most people view this as different than a crime against a human being. No one was ever found guilty of wrong doing in Alydar's death, the 30 something million insurance was paid out, and the racing industry went into damage control mode in the aftermath of his death. Horse racing is a business and the truth in this case was too ugly to put out there for the public to pour over. Things have changed, people have changed, Man O' War was a national hero, very beloved. Lundy probably would've found himself hanging from a tree 70 or 80 years ago had the victim been Big Red. Rest in peace Alydar, people haven't forgotten you.

SYLVESTER

So your opinions regarding Zenyatta carries more weight than trainers in the game that's icons  stating she's once in a lifetime? Is that it?

Chucky! YOU must not know a good horse when you see one! How many races are at 10 furlongs or more? Because a horse loses, means they dont like 10 furlongs? you dont know horses son!! please keep playing this game! please!

mz - no big deal. There are so many newbies on this board - people who sound like they have been watching racing for less than a half a dozen years - I simply assumed you were one. Remember the Handicap Series they had for older horses for a couple of years around 1990? The best older horses meeting each other again and again; and it all fell apart because various racetracks wouldn't cooperate with other tracks on scheduling, etc. Typical. We desperately need a national scheduling authority, among other things.

Stevebiscuit, save your well reasoned and rational arguments for another blogger. Sylvester is incapable of following them. He is a very silly man and I suspect if he ever did wear a pair of "cowboy boots," it was when he was 5. Real cowboys have alot more class and better manners. MZ, laughed my head off over your FOX News comment. Just wondering, have you ever watched Chris Mathews on MSNBC? Talk about torture. Yes, ITA about Alydar. He was murdered.

Footlick: I dont have any strong opinions on it. I'd go with Musical Romance myself, but it's a toss up. The only Eclipse Award I feel strongly about is 3YO male. I really think it would be a shame if Caleb's Posse didnt get it.

Key vet.....you are very confused.....do you know why there is not a single open grade 1 two turn 10 furlong race in the east coast anymore?

Trainers have been telling racing secretaries for a lot of years that they DO NOT have those kind of horses anymore......

That is why when hype horses like MO, Rachel or quality road lay eggs trying 10 furlongs you believe the bs.......

Oh I know horses but I know gullibles a lot better.....you one of them.....lol

Yup, Pedigree Ann.  I still am in mourning for the Old Handicap Triple Crown: the Suburban, the Metropolitan and ( who's old enough to help me here: what was the third race? ).  Didn't Forego win this?  And somebody else in the '70's?

Shopt

Sheesh!  I meant to end my last post with "shoot", not "shop".  

I am not consciously trying to sound cryptic .

Although aren't the Jan sales coming up fast?  

Mr. Shandler,

“The only Eclipse Award I feel strongly about is 3YO male. I really think it would be a shame if Caleb's Posse didn’t get it.”

Your statement above suggests you are still trying to make a case for a colt that does not deserve the Eclipse Award for Champion 3YO.  

He was not good enough to secure the requisite earnings to enter either Derby or the Preakness. He did not require earnings to enter the Belmont Stakes. His connections chose to keep him away from some of the top 3YO in the land. In short he was hidden. He did not require earnings to enter the Haskell, Jim Dandy and Travers. His connections again chose to keep him in hiding. He is contending for the award with Derby winner and Preakness runner-up; the Preakness winner, Haskell, Indiana Derby and Breeder Cup Dirt Mile runner-up. Both Animal kingdom and Shackleford faced and defeated the top 3YOs in the top 3YO races. The Iowa Derby, Amsterdam and King’s Bishop are not considered top 3YO races. If victories in these races can propel a colt to champion 3YO, then the top 3YO races should lose their G1 status and their purses should be slashed for their current levels of $2M, $1M & $750K.

Animal Kingdom defeated a strong Derby field handily. Shackleford turned the tables on him in the Preakness & Belmont. Shackleford also turned the table on the Belmont victor in the Haskell. While all of this was occurring Caleb’s Posse was in hiding. His connections avoided the top 3YO races contested at Saratoga. I fail to understand how a case for champion 3YO can be made for a nominee that avoided all the top 3YO races. Can any serious thoroughbred enthusiast justify such a claim?  I am aware that I have posted extensively on this issue and I am not trying to annoy anyone. However, I would appreciate you enlightening me as to what is missing from my analysis.

The Brooklyn!

Sylvester,

I sense your desperation. You remind me of another blogger who would make up facts in order to support his argument. Either that or he's terrible at doing research. So Zenyatta scratched (from the Louisville Distaff by the way),does this mean she couldn't have handled or her connections wouldn't have tried mud? Of course not. The Louisville Distaff was a grade 2 and her first race of 2009. Zenyatta's connections responsibly decided that it wasn't worth it. Had the race been the Breeders Cup Classic there's no reason to believe they would scratch if the track were to come up muddy. You can't say they "would've done this" when you have no facts to support that claim. When you run out of facts to argue with you attack me, saying that I'm some sort of blind fanatic. I can assure you I'm not. I've both seen and studied some of the greatest racehorses to ever live, Zenyatta's at the top. If your only criticism of me is my passion for a great racehorse, well then you got me, touche'.  And if you want to believe Blame is better that's for you to decide. But in my years of experience with this game I've learned that there's more to judging a race by the order of finish alone. Most people learn that within the first few months. I've watched enough races to know when the best horse is cost the victory. I don't blame Blame for beating Zenyatta. It wasn't because of him that Zenyatta lost. It was Pletcher's poor preparation of Quality Road's stamina, which caused QR to drop back into Zenyatta's path just as she was making her move, and that ultimately cost her the victory. Maybe if I had your logic I would argue that Haynesfield was the best horse of 2010 based on one race. Don't worry, sooner or later you'll understand. Until then, by all means keep trying to use insults as a substitute for real arguments.

Coldfacts: It's amazing that someone that follows a sport so closely could be as wrong as often as you are. Your pick for 3YO make is Shackleford? He won one graded race all year! And CP dusted him by 4 lengths in the BC. The King's Bishop is "not a top 3YO race?" Since when? Back to the drawing board for you.

Thanks Jason.  I'd probably go with one of the other two, but none of them really stood out, so any of the three would be fine.

For those of us who are following Hansen's progress...he worked 5f. in 1:00.40 this morning. It was ranked 2 out of 31.

Coldfacts, TY for taking the time to reply to my post about the breakdown of which sire lines are represented the most in this year's Derby nominations.When I see the nominations, because I know I will, I read articles on the major online horseracing sites including this one, and they usually give a number for total nominations and a breakdown for how many each trainer has,but I am interested in the breakdown for sire lines,it is sort of a measurement for how the owners and trainers think about breeding for the Derby.If you are not willing to at least listen to new ideas,becoming better at anything is not easy.I saw your last post and I have to disagree on one thing you wrote that Animal Kingdom beat a strong Derby field.I think he beat a relatively weak field of his peers,because if you remember a lot of major contenders dropped out of the race,Uncle Mo was one, another was the west coast monster that crushed the field in a prep out there, and at least one of Baffert's colts.There were others that dropped out on the trail and as you see I dont even remember the names of two of the ones I covered in this post.One of the major contenders coming out of the Arkansas Derby,Arch Arch Arch broke down during the race the colt he beat in that race Nero came in a belated 2nd.I think that is why my Derby future bet went bad because I was not able to increase the colts I had in my exacta boxes from the 1st pool to the third pool because many dropped out.That is a key to be able to cover a majority of the field in the Derby future bet,the horses you bet have to run.

My early pick for the Kentucky Derby is racing this afternoon at Gulfstream Park. In the seventh race of the card, In the Beat, racing for the same connections as 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, runs as the fifth choice in a field of nine against a number of other promising colts, including Discreet Dancer, A Boy Named Em, One Sock Down, and Da Vinci. I have the feeling that one or more graded stakes winners are going to emerge from this race.

-Keelerman

Stevebiscuit

“I sense your desperation. You remind me of another blogger who would make up facts in order to support his argument.”

I fine your comments above interesting. I am not suggesting that I am the unspecified blogger to whom your comments relate. However, I have been accused of same in the past.  For the records, facts cannot be made up. Below are some definitions to support my claim:

FACT:

They are something that actually exists, reality.

Something known to exist or have happened.

A truth known by actual experience or observation.

I you are implying that some facts presented to support arguments are irrelevant then you might have a point. It is illogical to refer to something as fact and then state that it is made up. I hope you will find the above clarification useful.

NB: Data can be manipulated to support an agruement.  

Mr. Shandler,

Again you have disappointed me with your usual vague response.  In your quest to discredit my pick for Champion 3YO you have failed to recognized that he made the cut in spite of the fact that he only won one graded race. How did he make the cut and the likes of Stay Thirsty who won three graded races did not?  Clearly his body of work qualified him as a nominee. You listed him in your short list for the award and now you are distancing yourself and regarding those that support him as wrong and uniformed. You have conveniently ignored the fact that Schakleford defeated Caleb’s Posse in the Indiana Derby. They both share victories over each other. You do realize that you are being presumptuous when you conclude that I am wrong about the 2011 Champion 3YO when the votes have not yet been tallied. What makes me wrong and you right? The first step towards a colt securing the 3YO Champion Eclipse Award, it has to be nominated. Schakleford has cleared this hurdle. Those entrusted with the task of determining the nominees for this category must have been convinced that his BOW qualified him as a same. You and other will have ample time after the award is announced to ridicule me.

Chucky; I've no intention of re-entering the Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta debate, and I'm not here to defend Rachel (who needs no defense) but I will point out that a horse doesn't have to be a "router" to be a great horse. Nowhere is it written that a horse needs to win at the "classic" distance of 1-1/4 mile (or longer) to be eligible to wear the mantle of greatness.  

Ranagulzion,

I am brining to your attention the fact that two Member of the RAN sire line will be challenging one of the superstars from the Todd Squad. In the Beat and A Boy Named Em will be taking on the track record setting Discreet Dancer in the 7th at Gulfstream. A Boy Named Em just came to my attention. His sire Point Given needs no introduction. His dam No Knock is an unraced daughter of A P Indy. She was produced from  the Stage Door Johnny  mare Never Knock who just happens to be the dam of Derby winner Go For Gin and Derby third place finisher Pleasant Tap. There is lot of classic pedigree associated with A Boy Named Em. He could be the exacta. Then again he is from the RAN sire line so the possibilities are endless.

Shackleford deserves as much consideration for 3 yr old champ as Animal Kingdom, which is none. The only case where I could see a 3 year old winning divisional honors off of one race is the Breeders Cup Classic. While Caleb's Posse may be a one turn specialist, he has the best resume and he beat older horses. Of course, The Factor did the same thing and he and Caleb's Posse have each beaten one another. The tie breaker is that Caleb's Posse won a Breeders Cup race. If that doesn't seal the deal for him I don't know what will.

Sylvester

Duh......There is a difference between a sealed track and a muddy track.

There is no difference between you and someone who doesn't want to understand, where understanding would cause anxiety or guilt feeling, or would endanger an existing neurotic equilibrium……..in other words being purposely stupid.

It was only a matter of time before Raconteur (A. P. Indy - Miss Kate by Storm Cat) to break his maiden. This horse has been on my watch for a while now and he was always right there. He'll be a promising horse to watch this year, whether not for Derby remains to be seen, but I really like him.

Also am happy to see The Last Meow (Storm Cat - Richwoman, by Successful Appeal) won in her debut. Being the last by Storm Cat, I hope she carries on his legacy.

Also like the ridgling How Do I Win for the Count Fleet.

www.pedigreequery.com/how+do+i+win

Of course Corinthian was one of my favorites of his generations. His personality won me over and he's Pulpit's next success at stud.

Hard to choose one of the other in the Sham, as I love Secret Circle and Longview Drive. Out of Bounds is full of promise... my favorite time of year when the three year old stakes begins!

Also hope the Corinthian colt Thessalonian breaks his maiden. I like him a lot, too. Of course am torn because there is another horse against Thess in the same maiden race, Street Talk'n, who is from a Canadian favorite of mine, Kimchi and sired by Street Cry.

Hard Facts (Hard Spun - Banshee Winds), hope this horse breaks his maiden today as well. Banshee Winds of course produced one of my favorite distaffers, Banshee Breeze. Have been following this colt since he was named.

In the Beat is an in an allownance optional. Cross fingers for him.

Does anyone know if Ron the Greek is still active? Thanks!

Wow Alpha looked good in the Count Fleet. This may be the year for Godolphin connections.

www.pedigreequery.com/alpha17

He's maturing nicely. It's only a matter of time before Bernardini gets a winner in one of the TC races. Could be the year?

Stephanoatsee closed nice in the Count Fleet, too. Can't wait to see more of him in longer races.

1:42.83 in the Count Fleet? Was the track playing exceptionally slow?

ksweatman9,

I so well remember the death of Alydar and just knew it was not an accident but a ploy to get the insurance money.  Lundy ran that historic farm into $129 million of debt.  When he took over it was debt free.  I just cannot stand the fact that Alydar lost his life because of someone's incompetence and greed.  He should be punished for that,  Maybe he'll kick his stall and break his leg and have to be put down.  The entire story just makes me sick.

COLDCUTS! You really are a PIECE OF WORK! I mean really....in 5 years, i cannot ever remember you being right about any choice in a race you have ever made! maybe once your 2nd pick won a race...your brain is on auto failure! You spend all this time looking at the wrong things...breeding? to pick a race?  IT IS SAID" 1/3 of the people in this world are mentally ill".....Well its not me! And i'm pretty sure it's not JASON!........

Coldfacts: Talk is cheap. I'll bet you any amount of money, you name the price, that Shack wont win the 3YO title. Was that too vague for you?

People. Zenyatta is the only recent HOY winner that actually did anything in the Breeder's Cup Classic!  I still think the race is the place to be for an HOY candidate.  

Paula Higgins I think Mike Smith would take a little blame on her only loss.  He left a lot for her to do that day.  

Her stretch run is right up there with Ferdinand and Alysheba.  Top 5 stretch runs of the Breeder's Cup Classic.  

Stevebisquick you claim you're not a blind fanatic about Zenyatta but yet you feel compelled to post a bunch of regurgitated garbage about how great she is on a blog about the 2011 Eclipse contenders?  Really??? How many times have you said 'if only' of the 2010 BC?  Now you're blaming Quality Road???  I have never seen a horse getting beat have so many excuses.  There's only one excuse....Blame was better.  And Schmucky Rachel had the same record as that overhyped overrated nag Zenyatta at races over 9 furlongs.  Both were 1-1.  You're almost as challenged as Stevebisquick, Paula, and Mike.  Not quite but close.

Coldfacts I think you have hard cold evidence and have earned some credibility on this board.If Im not mistaken Cold Facts was touting Out of Bounds back before he broke his maiden.If it was your buddy Ranagul(now I know where you got your screen name)then it is my bad as these two are always argueing back and forth on this board.It is 6:39 eastern time so if you already let the board know that you were touting Out of Bounds about two months ago, I have not read the post yet. Mr Shandler's reply to you at 5:56 is the last I read before posting this.

Tiznowbaby I watched and bet on both the Count Fleet and the Busanda immediately run before the Count Fleet.Both races were run at a mile and 70 yards as the 7th and 8th.In the 7th Sweet Seventeen was a sure winner but lost in the last couple of jumps to Captivating Lass also trained by Kiaran McLaughlin(trainer of Alpha). The official margin according to equibase was a neck. If I had to make a guess I would say there was a head wind into the stretch.I couldnt find out by looking at results if this was the case,but if you watch both races at the end of the race the horses seem to hang.Alpha IMO didnt look that explosive down the lane,but if there was a head wind that would clear it up somewhat. Also Alpha was in front at the head of the stretch and was under a hand ride,they were not running him to peak in the Count Fleet.That is why I look at the margin of victory more than the time on the clock,they wanted to win the Count Fleet but not as a race to empty out the tank.The official margin of victory in the Count Fleet according to Equibase was 2 1/2,so in that sense,it was a convincing win.I consider a win of 3 lengths or more, one that implies that the horse that won the race was much the best.

Coldfacts,

Thanks for the information supporting Dixieland Band's chances of being the grandsire of this year's Derby winner. Good stuff my friend.

Your two Raise A Native line colts had no answer for Discreet Dancer's disappearing act in that one mile 3YO alowance race today. Clearly you haven't taken my tip which I'll repeat: In the past whenever a new sireline breaksthrough in the Kentucky Derby as the Blushing Groom line did with Animal Kingdom, the RAN line gets shut out of the Derby for at least two years. I think that you should take a dose of your own historical/statistical medicine and abandon the RAN colts this year. The Northern Dancer juggernaut is unstoppable and there's still room to get on board even if you don't like Union Rags or a Todd Squad colt like Discreet Dancer.  Out Of Bounds(by Discreet Cat) is indeed a lumbering plodder as Gun Bow rightly observed but he was good enough to tag one of your RAN favourites Secret Circle. In spite of his pedigree, the latter does not look like a Derby horse.

You might want to try a Bernardini colt like Alpha (looked good today in the Count Fleet Stakes), Algorithm, Casual Trick or Consortium but the chances of consecutive breakthroughs into the exclusive Derby-winner-producing club seems very remote.

KY VET:  "IT IS SAID" 1/3 of the people in this world are mentally ill".....Well its not me!"

Seriously?  You better have a consult on that...your constant anger is a clue that you have stepped off the curb.  TBI maybe?

Uh Sylvester, you need to go back and read your last post, including the last line. Some village is missing an idiot.

Householder I absolutely get your point about Mike Smith. But I believe Zenyatta wasn't handling the surface early on, which was why she was so far back. I think Mike did the best he could with what he had that day. Jason would argue (and for the record, I get his point) that she wasn't handling the surface because she hadn't raced on dirt enough. Normally, I would agree. But the dirt that day was not the normal dirt surface. Jockeys said they had never seen the surface condition at Churchill like that before. With her running style, it compromised her even more. John Shirreffs thought Mike should have split horses. I have watched the film and I just don't see where he could have done it. When QR, stopped running, that was the ball game. I think QR was the bigger game changer. It cost her just about what she lost by. Blame was one gutsy boy, who got a very smooth trip, and who hung on. He is a really good horse. I don't think bringing Zenyatta to Churchill sooner, or racing her on dirt more, would have made a difference in this one particular race. She lost for other reasons.

Jason, you are so right about Caleb's Posse.

ksweatman9, ITA with everything you said, but if someone murdered a high profile horse now, they would be toast. Times have changed and the media and the public wouldn't tolerate it. It's the horses that are not high profile that are at more risk. You just have to hope that peer pressure in the industry would make the difference now.

robinm, you are so right about Rachel and Zenyatta. Both are brilliant horses and ITA they don't have to be able to run the classic distance to be great. At shorter distances, I am not sure Zenyatta would have beaten Rachel. It always took her awhile to get going. The bottom line is this: no one who is a true horse racing fan can deny the legacy of both horses. Even though Jason wasn't happy with the way she was campaigned and managed by her connections, I know he knows she was a great horse. Sylvester, well he's another can of worms entirely-and literally.

Kingkapper, in watching the replay, I just thought he would get easier separation after stalking a 1:13 split, but perhaps he is more of a grinder? I am not that familiar with the horse and will have to go look for his other races.

I see that the Busanda splits were also slow.

Big weekend for Darley / Godolphin connections. Both Out of Bounds and Alpha look like serious horses to watch for.

Discreet Dancer's race at Gulfstream Park was phenomenal as well. Maybe see him stretch out in the next race going forward.

Can't wait to see more from all three of these horses.

Congrats Coldfacts:

I was on-track at Santa Anita for Out of Bound's win in the Sham.

Gomez rode him exactly like I said he should be ridden.  My biggest concern about Out of Bounds is that Harty would instruct Gomez to take the horse back in his first route race.  When I saw OoB stalking the two leaders as a close 3rd in the Sham, I felt he had a big chance to wear them down in the stretch.

I hope you now clearly see that when I called Out of Bounds a "grinder", I wasn't being derogatory.  Out of Bounds has good tactical speed and has the ability to relentlessly keep plugging away, wearing horses down in the stretch.  In the Sham, Out of Bounds stalked and then just kept grinding away at Longview Drive and Secret Circle through the stretch.  He didn't win off by much, but I got the feeling he would have increased the margin with more distance.

I still haven't seen "brilliance" from Out of Bounds, but that's ok.  With his combination of tactical speed and endurance, and a wonderfully long and fluid stride, he is a serious player in the Prep Season.

And one just has to like Out of Bounds from a physical standpoint.  What a specimen!  Tall and leggy, yet carrying good flesh and muscle, he certainly has that "it" factor.

I'm not expecting a Beyer over 90, so Out of Bounds still has yet to run fast.  I was encouraged that the time for the Sham compared favorably to that of the San Pasqual for older males, but the San Pasqual field was really poor and that race might not get a Beyer over 85.

Like you Coldfacts, if I have a serious concern going forward it is with Harty.  I thought Harty made a mistake giving Anthony's Cross two months off in February and March, from the Lewis to the SA Derby, and then compounded this mistake by asking Anthony's Cross to be a one-run closer.  Harty shouldn't be afraid to allow Out of Bounds to race into peak condition, as the horse's physical stature suggests he should be able to take a good amount of racing.  And, as  I wrote when he broke his maiden, please continue to let Out of Bounds use his excellent tactical speed and resist whatever temptation there is to transform him into a one-run closer.  Out of Bounds' greatest strength is his ability to keep running at a solid pace, not his ability to accelerate on a dime.

I told you....Out of Bounds..La Troienne family...The Derby winner!!

Ranagulzion,

“Out Of Bounds(by Discreet Cat) is indeed a lumbering plodder as Gun Bow rightly observed but he was good enough to tag one of your RAN favorites Secret Circle. In spite of his pedigree”

I disagreed with Gun Bow assessment of Out Of Bounds then and I disagree with your endorsement of those sentiments now. Below is an extract from Mr. Sandler ‘s report on the Sham:

‘Out Of Bounds a big colt with a big future, swept past odds-on favorite Secret Circle to capture the $100,000 Sham Stakes’

Mr. Shandler has on many occasions fell short of classifying me as an idiot. His comments about is in stark contrast to those you have endorses. Below are Mr. Gomez’ post race comments:

"He did everything really professional for a horse that’s only run a couple of times," said Gomez. "I was excited by his last couple races. He’s such a good-sized colt and I thought the two turns would really help him because he’s such a long-striding horse. It’s just a matter of getting him to understand how to do it the right way. I think he’s got enough ability to do it.

"When I first came off the turn I thought I was going to run right by the favorite, but this horse is just young enough to where he doesn’t quite understand everything about the game yet. I had to spank him a couple times to let him understand what I was wanting from him, and when I got into him a LITTLE BIT he progressed and went forward.”

NB: Out of Bounds, raced without Lasix

I brought this colt to the attention of Forbidden Apple after watching his losing effort on debut. I saw enough to be convinced that he would be a serious race horse when given more real estate to cover . After your disparaging remarks about him I advised you to revisit the video of his maiden victory and focus on his gallop out and you would see a physically imposing specimen of a race horse. To confirm that my assessment was not an optical illusion, Mr. Shandler’s in his report describes OOB as a handsome-looking chestnut whose trainer assesses him to be the better part of 17 hands. How can a colt running without Lasix track fractions of 22.66, 45.89, 1:09.78 and win 1:34.56 be considered ‘lumbering plodder”? He defeated the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint and graded place Longview Drive in his graded stakes debut. If he is a lumbering plodder, what does that make them? I pointed out to the highly respected Gun Bow that OOB was a big colt with long fluent strides and this made his speed deceptive. What is mistaken for lumbering is the action of a young big horse that is just learning how to sustain a gallop. In any event, I will take a lumbering plodder who can complete a mile in 1:34.56 at 10 to one any day..

I went ballistic urging him on at the OTB as I recognized that I would never again get 10-1 because the public would never allow same after the Sham. Needleless to say I will be smiling all the way to the bank later today. Based on Mr. Gomez comments above the colt is still immature and he only got into him a little bit. The prospect of further improvement in the performance for this exceptional well bred colt is encouraging. At the wire Mr. Gomez look rather comfortable on an immature horse making only its third start.

I am well aware that many consider me an idiot but even a broken clock is right twice per day. Will OOB develop into to be a Derby contender?  Based on his victory in his first graded effort I see no reason he should not be a contender for one of the 20 spots.

Gun Bow was wrong and so are you.  In fairness to Gun Bow he specified after OOB maiden win that CA now had a new star. This is why I found his comment concluding that OOB was a grinder in conflict with his new star comment. Never heard of a star grinder!  Correction! Who is Stay Thirsty?

Ranagulzion,

“Clearly you haven't taken my tip which I'll repeat: In the past whenever a new sideline breakthrough in the Kentucky Derby as the Blushing Groom line did with Animal Kingdom, the RAN line gets shut out of the Derby for at least two years”

I saw the above when it was initially posted and did some fact check. It turns out you are correct about the span but wrong about Blushing Groom line.

Giacomo’s Derby victory broke a five year sequence of wins for the RAN sire line and this was the first and only time a new sire line had interrupted its dominance.  

Animal Kingdom’s victory in the 2011 Derby did not represent a victory for a new sire. Animal Kingdom’s sire Leroidesanimaux goes back to Nasrullah. His sire Candy Stripes is a son of Blushing Groom who in turn is a son of Red God a son of Nasrullah. Between 1970 and 1979, Nasrullah line stallions sired 7 of the 10 Derby winners including the great Secretariat. This primarily via the great sire of sires Bold Ruler. This sire line is certainly not new to Derby success. In fact I have been awaiting the reemergence of its 1970s dominance via A P Indy.

Your projection that the RAN sire line will be shut in 2012 cannot be considered valid  based on only one occurrence. The decline of the RAN sire line dominance might occur but not for the reason you have advanced. The Nasrullah sire line dominated in the 1970s with 7 wins and then it went MIA. The RAN sire line dominated the 2000s with 7 wins. Using the historic decline of Nasrullah sire line after a decade of dominance, the RAN sire line may just suffer a similar fate. I would not wager on the decline of the RAN sire line anytime soon as there are some excellent ambassadors representing the line in the breeding sheds. Curlin, Smart Strike, Street Sense, Smarty Jones,  Fusaichi Pagasus, Drosselmeyer, Street Cry, Unbridled Song, Empire Maker, Point Given, Lemon Drop Kid, Summer Bird etc.  

Alpha looked much bigger and stronger yesterday, he seems to be maturing well. I think Ramon just found his KY Derby horse at the Big A. It was nice to see a stakes race for $150k, NY racing is finally improving. I thought Captivating Lass was impressive too, she sure will appreciate a longer distance in the future.

Coldfacts,

I hope you went to the window yesterday and caught Out Of Bounds at 10-1! The morning line was 5-1 and one horse scratched out. I was shocked to see him open up at 12-1. Like I said a few weeks ago, Out Of Bounds is a serious horse. He smartly tracked a fast pace and when Gomez asked him for run, he was full of himself. It was a hand ride to the wire and another impressive win for this grand looking colt. My $50 win ticket on Out Of Bounds was a pleasant end to my saturday afternoon.

Chucky,

The trainers today are far more interested in bullet workouts and beyer speed figures. Until they stop breeding and training for speed, us fans will continue to be subjected to fake stars like Uncle Mo and Quality Road.

MZ,

The Handicap Triple Crown was the Metropolitan, the Brooklyn and the Suburban.  AND fewer horses have won that than the regular triple crown - only four: Whisk Broom II in 1913, Tom Fool in 1953, Kelso in 1961 and Fit To Fight in 1984.  Would love to see that series become more prominent - something to keep the older horses in training for!!!

Coldfacts: You simply go too far back in pedigree in an effort to support your arguments. Almost all TB's trace back to Nearctic, Nasrullah, Northern Dancer.  Blood lines do become diluted.  Most horses racing today have Seattle Slew and Secretariat (and Mr Prospector).  But a more recent KD winner has been responsible for plenty of winners.

Try...Unbridled (1990)=Grindstone(1996)=Birdstone(Belmont 2004)=Mine That Bird(2009).+..and Summer Bird(Belmont 2009).  Who's on tap this year from the Unbridled line?  Try Secret Circle and Out Of Bounds(but via Unbridled's Song whose soundness is iffy).  Very Interesting.

Tizherself: Ron The Greek is still racing...saw him several weeks ago...doing so-so (No longer with Amos).  Maximus Ruler scratched out of a race at Fairgrounds yesterday, and Mucho Macho Man is back in training.

Tixherself...with my apologies for my Swiss cheese memory.  Ron the Greek, under Bill Mott, wired the Queens County Stakes in NY on 12/10/11, winning it easily.  (There might have been a problem with the favorite.)  He also won his race before that in November.

I'd be looking for him to show up next in Fla...maybe.

I walked away from the computer, sat on the couch, and THEN remembered RTG's true race, so I had to come back on to let you know because he was always one of my favorites.

Forbidden Apple

"I hope you went to the window yesterday and caught Out Of Bounds at 10-1!"

Yes Sir! All Fruits Are Ripe! I had a bit more than your wager. The colt was stuck on the rails and was in a holding position heading to the top of the stretch. He had to be taken wide for his run and quickened nicely to catch a very fast and talented colt in race horse time . A horse that exist a maiden race and defeats such a fast horse has to have class. Nice colt.

I have to ask those of you who are into the bloodlines of racehorses - why is it that you always refer to it as the Raise A Native sire line (or Mr Prospector sire line)?  I personally feel like it should be referred to as it is:  the Native Dancer sire line!  No need to take credit from where it belongs as HE was the GREAT ONE that started it all.  RAN may have become a great racehorse if he had the opportunity but that we will never know.  Would have been an interesting Derby in 1964 though had he faced Native Dancer's grandson Northern Dancer...!!

Coldfacts:

I'm surprised you continue to fail to understand my point about Out of Bounds.  First, I never said he was a plodder.  Plodder is a more negative term.  I described him as a grinder.  By using the term grinder, I am describing the horse's style, not his ability.  I never once commented that he couldn't be an elite horse or that he didn't have talent.  Do you see the difference?

In my first post about Out of Bounds, my main point was that I was imploring the connections to allow the horse to use his tactical speed when he stretched out; I was worried they were going to take him back and ask him to make one-run from well off the pace and that they would not utilize his excellent tactical speed.  As it turned out, Out of Bounds was ridden exactly like I said he should be ridden.  Go back and read; I predicted success with such a style.

And be honest Coldfacts, the way Out of Bounds won the Sham was more in "grinding" fashion.  He just kept relentlessly coming after the two leaders and finally wore them down.  Now, maybe the reason Out of Bounds appears to "grind" is because he is still somewhat mentally immature as Gomez suggested after the Sham and he gets distracted?  Maybe he just simply doesn't have a brilliant burst of acceleration?  That will be proven in later races.  

Coldfacts, your confidence in Out of Bounds was validated in the Sham, which is why I offered congratulations in an earlier post this thread(although there is still much to be proven as it concerns Out of Bounds).  But, I again ask you to go back and read my original post on Out of Bounds and then my clarification post on that earlier thread.  I was the one declaring that California has a new "it" horse.  I was extremely positive in describing his physical abilities, and spent most my time focusing on how I think he should be ridden in his route debut.  Was I wrong?  You may not have liked the term "grinder", but again, that reflects style not ability.  And was not Out of Bounds' win in the Sham more in workmanlike or even "grinding" fashion?

SYLVESTER says BLAME BETTER? than Zenyatta?

You mean Blame the

1. DIRT HORSE

2. HORSE FOR THE COURSE AT CD

3. EYES BULGING

4. EARS PINNED SO HARD TO HIS HEAD

5. LIFE AND DEATH

6. BARELY HOLDING OFF

Zenyatta

1. Female

2. Poly horse

3. Ears twirling

4. First time at dirt CD

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA

Some of you are new to this game..you and KEY VET SHOULD HOLD HANDS...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

FORBIDDEN APPLE

You got that right...too many still believes these weak milers can go 10 furlongs....gotta love those hihg beyers they are getting at shorter distances...great values when these non-classic distance horses try to go 10 furlongs....

biggest dissapointment I had last year is when they hype Uncle Mo going into the Derby...and then he was scratch...the value on the Derby would have been better...

Of course I couldn't believe it when they ran in the classic...WOW WHAT VALUE...

Cannot wait for the next miler that gets the beyer hype...HAHAHAHA

Fit to Fight!

Thx Racingfan.

I would love to see that series come back too but didn't they downgrade the Subruban and the Brooklyn?  I still hate it when they do that.

(FYI, the brain finally got the answer just a few minutes after the post, if you re-read the string.  It's not that I don't have the RAM, it's just that I'm now using an older operating system.)

Wish I'd had money on Captivating Lass (A.P. Indy - Folk, by Quiet American) Thought this would work with her as the A.P. Indy over Quiet American gave us Bernardini. She'd been among a post on Breeder's Cup Chat blog of mine November 30. Can't wait to see how many from that list come back as winners. So far, Lisa T., Dullahan, Longview Drive and now Captivating Lass have won. It is neat to see full or half siblings to some of my favorite horses or foals from the mares that I followed closely win.

Trevor said "Caracortado didn't fire today..."...inside the 1/8 pole....

Coldfacts,

I'm not predicting any decline in the success of the Raise A Native line with respect to the Triple Crown races. All I'm saying is that based upon past trends a RAN line colt should not be wearing the garland of roses on the 1st Saturday in May 2012. You found an angle to spin your way out of admitting that the trend of History is against a RAN line colt winning the Derby this year... Okay my friend.

The Blushing Groom branch of Nasrullah has established itself over a couple of decades as a very distinct line from say Bold Ruler, throwing champions in both North America and Europe such as Arazi, Rainbow Quest, Eliza, Runaway Groom, Blushing John as well as notable sires Candy Stripes, Mt Livermore and outstanding broodmare Blushing Promise, dam of Awesome Again and Macho Uno, to name a few. He has also been grandsire of Epsom Derby winner Quest for Fame, champions Invasor and Leroidesanimaux and broodmare grandsire of Candy Ride. In my view Animal Kingdom's victory in last year's Derby represents a breakthrough for Blushing Groom. Based upon your slick line of escape, we might as well lump the Northern Dancer and Nasrullah lines under Nearco if and when that line of reasoning suits our position. Anyway, you are correct on technical grounds and have escaped for now but your stay of execution expires on the 1st Saturday in May.

Chucky: She lost. Get over it. And a life.

Jason: It's believers in these milers that should get a life. Rachel laid 2 dozen eggs trying 10 furlongs. She lost. Get over it.

BTW did you hit the 2011 Classic? LOL

I did.

Jason: I apologize, you meant overrated Rachel!! you are right.

Yeah Chucky: I hit the lottery too. Show us your picks BEFORE the race you gangsta.

Anytime you want to have a handicapping challenge say the word.

BTW: Rachel won the Preakness, which was a little further....first filly in 85 years to do so, and from 13 post. Let me know when that happens again. And it wasnt on the fake crap.

New maiden winner Hard Facts is right up on my list of horses I like and can't wait to see more from as a three year old in 2012

www.pedigreequery.com/hard+facts

Hard Spun of course I have been a fan of and if he'd been born in another year, he would have been the Derby winner (not taking anything away from Street Sense as I liked him very much too)

Hard Facts could have potential for grass as well, given the Danzig linw

Banshee Winds of course the dam of Banshee Breeze one of my favorites of her generation.

Jason: better yet got a spare email..i have no problem sending you a pic..

Hmmm...rachel?? LMFAO!

you meant 9 furlongs rachel..Goldikova can also nip 9 furlongs as a miler..

as far as excuses rachel got it all

1. plastic

2. not fit

3. kensie (HAHAHAHAAHAHA good one)

4. not fit

5. not the same as 2009

Rachel is like UM and QR..

same milers being hype as classic distance horse...

Gotta love the value in the 10 furlong races...

BTW send a pic of w2g too...

Jason: the play for the classic was pretty darn easy

1. throw out 9 furlong Havre de Grace (rachel wannabe)...like the Woodward is a grade 1 race...sure! lol

2. throw out miler Uncle Mo

now you got value

No wonder you couldnt find RA in the Preakness. You were handicapping 9 F and it was 1 3/16 miles. You must be new to racing. Maybe you should try auto racing.

Jason:

No need to look for Rachel in the Preakness..with I want Revenge, Pampelmouse and QR out of that race, she got the overrated hype.

A 50-1 KD winner Sunland horse almost nipped that beyer hype from the get go. LOL

...and you almost know what you're talking about.

I knEw what I was talking about...most today get sucked up by hype but I know you knew that too...

LOL

GunBow,

Your congratulation was noted. A few comments on some of the points in your post:

“I hope you now clearly see that when I called Out of Bounds a "grinder", I wasn't being derogatory.”

I did not regard your classification of Out Of Bounds as grinder as derogatory. I have seen many of your detailed evaluations of talent and I have gone on record as citing my respect for same. The fact that we differ on the running style of the colt make for a healthy debate. My learned pal Ranagulzion classified him as a ‘Lumbering Plodder’ consequently your classification was kind in comparison. You might not have seen or heard Mr. Gomez’s post race comments. This might give some insight into why the colt give the impression he is a grinder. A portion is listed below.

"When I first came off the turn I thought I was going to run right by the favorite, but this horse is just young enough to where he doesn’t quite understand everything about the game yet. I had to spank him a couple times to let him understand what I was wanting from him, and when I got into him a little bit he progressed and went forward.”

I guess what you want to see is an explosive kick in the stretch instead of a looping sustained gallop; thus your grinder conclusion. Well, based on Mr. Gomez’s comments above it appear the colt does not know how to fully accelerate when asked as he is still green and immature. That said, how does a grinder cover one mile in 1:34.56 on the SA speedway? Grinders are able to sustain their top speeds for much longer periods and consequently benefit from the gradually decline of opponents. Based on Speedy Bob’s comments below, Out Of Bounds did not grind pass Secret Circle :

“He just got beat," Baffert said of Secret Circle. "He didn’t shut it down. He wasn’t exhausted when he came back, so it was a good experience for him. It was the first time he was able to rate off of horses. I think he got a lot out of it.”

If a colt with Secret Circle’s speed did not shut down and was not exhausted, no grinder would get by him. It would take a colt full of forward gallop to defeat a quality colt full of running at the end of a race.

“I still haven't seen "brilliance" from Out of Bounds, but that's ok.  With his combination of tactical speed and endurance, and a wonderfully long and fluid stride, he is a serious player in the Prep Season”

A colt that exits a maiden race to defeats an undefeated graded stakes winner at mile in 1:34.56 while running somewhat green equates to brilliance in by book. The impressive Creative Cause won the Norfolk in 1:42.66. The mile split for the Norfolk was 1:36.39. The impressive Liaison won the Cash Call in 1:42.86.  The mile split for the Cash Call was 1:36.39. The final time for OOB one mile Sham victory was 2 seconds faster. I recognized the distances of the races differ but I would conclude that OOB was more impressive than Creative Cause and Liaison.  

I also agree that OOB is a nice colt who will be extremely good when he figures out the game. I also have major reservations about his trainer. This colt is probably one of his best Derby prospect in years. I hope he gets it right this time.

Tiznowbaby Both races were run with slow splits.I think maybe another factor is quality of horses that stay in Ny instead of spending the coldest part of the winter at Gulfstream.Last year I was not impressed with Stay Thirsty's victory in the next leg of the same 3yo stakes series or the one after,nevertheless Alpha won but he probably didnt beat much.I had previously seen other races on the inner at Aqueduct where the leader looks like a sure winner only to hang severely in the stretch.I think running in that cold air might have something to do with it,or there might be a regular occurrence of cross winds or head winds into the stretch.I remember the monster times run at Aqueduct by 3yos like I Want Revenge and Bellamy Road were run on that track in weather conditions that were less cooler.I have trouble believing that the track was slow,it looks very tight and with it being so cold I think it would be harder to loosen the surface when they plow it.

Chucky Uncle Mo had a lot better chance in the Derby against his peers(horses of the same age)then he did in the classic.He could have won the derby(if it was the same horse that won the juvenile)but he wasnt and the connections never admitted he was not the same.They gave us clues like running him in a tailor made race The Timely Writer.Btw if thet keep running the Timely Writer It will always remind me of Uncle Mo,they should change the Timely Writer into the Uncle MO.The name itself Timely Writer looking at it in retrospect makes one think the racing secreatary wrote that race for MO at the right time.

It seems to me, in the 2009 Preakness, if the distance had been 10f instead of 9.5, from the looks of things...Mine That Bird would have won it...that's how close he was.  So can we now quit discussing 2009 and 2010, and concentrate on 2011 (Eclipse) and 2012 (Derby Fever)?  

Gunbow: I very much enjoy your assessments of the races, and feel that you have a much better grip on the realities of the game.  

Coldfacts: I feel that your sire references are arcane, and lead to too many false conclusions.  I'm very anxious to see what the outbreeding to Lonrho will bring to the American race horse.

Dr D: Where are you?  I'm missing the giggles.  There's been more War Emblem than Street Sense on this blog.

Spectacular race from Caracortado yesterday...I really thought Regally Ready was going to take the Daytona.  I never expected that late kick, but was thrilled to watch it happen.

Since I cannot separate the accomplishments of HDG from BL, I feel neither gets HOY.  I wouldn't oppose Game On Dude getting it.  He did well all year, but his BCC run was absolutely sensational, icing on his record.  Acclamation may have a better record, but he never made it to the big dance...and I think that counts.

What I saw in the BCJ was a tired Union Rags veering out in the final furlong.  That's a green and tired horse to me, who lost the race by his own lack of concentration.  Hansen had no problem on a track everyone hated.  I think Hansen deserves 2 year old male by his win.  

mz - They shortened the Suburban to 9f and since it is in the same time-frame as the more valuable Foster, its fields declined in quality, leading to the down-grade. All the 10f races for older horses on the East Coast are gone except the JC Gold Cup. The only places for real 10f horses to prep are the new marathon preps, like the Brooklyn has become.

Like I said elsewhere- we need a national scheduling authority. And a grading committee with some backbone that will use judgment, rather than depending on computer calculations.

SYLVESTER

You aren't a true racing fan.

Btw, get back to me when Blame ever is voted into the HOF.

Caqracortado is a small chestnut bulldog, who has that big kick--small strides--you can tell by the way he pulls up--after blowing past them, he gets passed by them all in the pull up--small strides, indeed! Big heart, though! I'd love to see that horse try those sprinters, namely Black Caviar, over at Flemington, on that straight course--or Hong Kong--"Scarface" is a bonifide closing sprinter on grass--that's what he should've done in the Breeders Cup, not gunning out of the gate, run HIS race--settle, then he'll give you that potent last 1/4 mile--keep him around one turn, even if it's the Met Mile, although I think he's maybe better shorter--that's a fun little chestnut--and he's a gelding, so he'll be fun for years to come, here's hoping!

Congrats Coldfacts as the first(so called) breeding prophet that I recall on this board(since i have been reading it) touting a horse that then has a big win,and at 10-1.I did not come up with the term Prophet wasnt it Forbidden Apple or maybe Gun Bow that wrote it on this blog first.

Happy New Year to Jason and all the bloggers.  

Glad to see Animal Kingdom and Toby's Corner back at work.  I'm so thrilled AK is back, but not too excited about him going to Dubai for a race.  Champagne D'Oro will make a great broodmare in the future I think.  Go Rapid Redux, he is unblievable and deserves his special award.  Champagne D'Oro was good, I think she needed a better, much more experienced trainer so I am blaming the training.  She was aces high when I saw her at Belmont Park and then the career went off track.

Good choices for the awards Jason, the only one that is tough to pick is the 3 yr. old male champ for me. AK, Shack, or Posse?  I say let's get these awards over with this year and let the TC preps begin!!!

This is the best sport EVER! I get to BET AGAINST PEOPLE WHO SAY THINGS LIKE" Out of Bounds is one of the best prospect in years!" or " Game on Dude's 2nd place cup finish was sensational!" 100 beyer? ........PRICELESS!

How to sound like a genius.

All you need to say is that the Kentucky Derby will be won by a starter from a certain sire line.

The top 17 potential starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby as determined by the odds offered by British bookmakers,are members of  the following sire lines:

Northern Dancer-----8

Bold Ruler ---------4

Raise A Native -----2

Fortino-------------2

In Reality----------1

Of course, if you choose the Northern Dancer sire line you have to find the winner from among 8 horses. This is why sire line is a useless  tool  for predicting the actual winner.

The runners in question are:

Union Rags, Hansen, Wrote, Dullahan, Gemologist, Ever So Lucky, Out Of Bounds, Liaison, Creative Cause, O’Prado Again, So Brilliant, Rousing Sermon, El Padrino, Sabercat, Alpha, Discreet Dancer, Secret Circle.

Note. To keep the information meaningful, the sire lines are all deemed to have begun at the birth of the sires in the 10-year period 1954-1964.

Slew,

“Coldfacts: I feel that your sire references are arcane, and lead to too many false conclusions.  I'm very anxious to see what the out breeding to Lonrho will bring to the American race horse”.

I have thought very long how to respond to the first part of you statement above. Firstly, do I agree?  I guess you might have a point. Very few are interested in the fact that one sire line has dominated the Triple Crown over the last 20 years. Punters are more interested in individual horses and not the history of their sire or broodmare lines. I guess only the thoroughbred purest can really grasp the significance of the data presented.

I think I am misunderstood in many ways and I am directly responsible  for this due to the poor job I do of compiling the words that properly communicate my points. However, it’s not from a lack of effort. May be my English is far more deficient than I think. You might have read my overwhelming support for Shackleford as Champion 3YO. Well many have questioned how could I be so wrong? I find those posing this question rather presumptuous as votes for the eclipse award have not yet been tallied.  In spite of this I am labeled wrong and to some extent ridiculed. The fact that I have been told in advance that I am wrong suggests that I did not make a convincing case for my selection. I must concede dominion to those that can see into the future with such accuracy. I am no doubt a lesser mortal and thus my inability to effectively communicate with far superior posters. If Shackleford is indeed voted Champion 3YO there will be no apologies as there is very little tolerance for my opinions. What have I done to create this dislike? Just for once I have no cold facts on which to draw a conclusion.

The iron horse Lonrho could significantly influence much needed stamina in the American stock. Of the 58 different horses comprising his first five generations all were bred in Europe. I am not sure the level of outside support such a stallion will receive in its first year. Darley/ Godolphin have lots of mare and should be able to launch him. No Raise A Native, Northern Dancer, Hail To Reason, Buckpasser in his first five generations. American breeder support, no way!

R.I.P. Artax. I had a real soft spot in my heart for that horse.

Coldfacts:

Yes, in one of my posts above, I alluded to Gomez's comments and the possibility that Out of Bounds hasn't yet appeared explosive because of mental immaturity and not a lack of physical talent.

And I stand corrected about what I thought would be only a moderate Beyer.  Santa Anita had been playing so fast through the opening week+ that the 1:34 and 2 did not appear particularly fast.  However, as I reflected on the times for the rest of the card, it was clear the track had slowed. Evidently,  Team Beyer thought the track had slowed considerably, awarding Out of Bounds a very solid 99 Beyer.  As predicted, the Sham Beyer was higher than the Beyer earned by older males in the San Pasqual(95).

The 99 for Out of Bounds caught me by surprise.  It suggests that Secret Circle ran just as well in the Sham as he had in his  sprint races; the Beyer for the Sham runs counter to the visual impression of most observers that Secret Circle did not look as effective in his first route.

If we believe the 99 Beyer, Out of Bounds is faster and further along in his development than I thought and that Secret Circle shouldn't be written off as a sprinter.  The Beyer supports your impression of Out of Bounds running fast or even brilliantly to reel in a horse in Secret Circle that was giving little quarter.  While I viewed  Out of Bounds' stretch run of the Sham as more of a grinding effort, an example of a horse slowly and relentlessly wearing down two  frontrunners that were starting to tire, the Beyer supports your interpretation of Out of Bounds turning on the jets in the stretch to catch a couple of horses that were still going fairly strongly.

Finally, I do not find it a contradiction in terms for a horse to be a star and yet a grinder.  The way I view the word grinder, I classify Breeder's Cup winners like Royal Delta, Amazombie, and Drosselmeyer as grinders.  However, you may be right that a horse can't be a grinder and be a Superstar.

Coldfacts & Gun Bow,

Interesting discussion on the promising colt Out Of Bounds. I'm not convinced that he's not a plodder. The comparitive running times at Santa Anita are difficult to judge on different days therefore comparisons with Creative Cause and Liason have to be taken with a grain of salt. In fact, as these colts are based in Cali it will be very interesting to see which one drives the others out of town before the Santa Anita Derby.

I read Bob Baffert's comment on Secret Circle but still think that SC isn't a Derby horse. That Secret Circle which looked so impressive as a 2YO looked ordinary stretching out to a mile when you compare him with say Discreet Dancer at Gulfstream Park. The latter ran a track record at 5 1/2 furlongs and then blew away his allowance field on a canter stretching out at a mile while clearly looking like he wants to go further.

Slew,

Your eyes were deceiving you in the BCJ. Union Rags ran much further than Hansen, based his wide trip, was pass Hansen in the next jump after the winning post and galloped out stronger. If he was tired as you speculate, that would be reasonable for a 2YO stretching out for the first time and running faster than the winner. You should try to be little more objective in your analysis.  

Tiznowbaby Ill post this anyway eventhough you might not be interested in the races last Saturday at Aqueduct anymore.I just finished reading about Alpha's gate problems that have been a reoccurring problem for him.He is expected to be ready to run in the next leg of the 3yo series leading to the Wood Memorial called the Withers on February 4.In the other race it was reported that Sweet Seeventeen failed to switch leads in the stretch,another factor in her hanging in the stretch. The winner of that race, Captivating Lass will be shipped south because of a lack of route races for 3yo fillies at Aqueduct,and is being pointed to a race at Gulfstream or Fairgrounds.

The Withers in February??? On the All-weather Inner? The Blasphemy!! First the Gallant Fox, then the Ladies', now the Withers! Is the NYRA determined to devalue ALL of its great historic races? Not to mention what they did to the CCA Oaks, Suburban, and Woodward. If you read about racing from the first half of the 20th Century, Withers winners were honored along with Belmont and Kentucky Derby winners as being among the best of their crops. If the Withers had no place left in the program anymore, they should retire the name while it still had some of its lustre.

KY VET - regarding your comments above, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on Out of Bounds.  Do you consider him a Derby prospect of any import?  I too am skeptical of any "best Derby prospect in years" proclomations at this early stage but I do find the colt intriguing,

Pedigree Ann- I so agree with your post.  My favorite memory of the Withers was when Sarsar won.  Now it is a prep for a prep.  Sad.

Slew,

Excellent point about Game On Dude's worthiness for HOY consideration. How could any multiple Grade 1 winner and Grade 1-placed on both dirt and synthetic at 9 furlongs+ not be given serious thought for HOY in the most wide-open year of recent memory? Sure, the Ky Quack loves to "LECTURE THE MORE STUPIDER IDIOTS" by comparing times over tracks and races which are hundreds of miles and often weeks/months apart, but The Dude followed up his regular-season campaign by fighting off Havre de Grace, Uncle Mo and every other horse he could see in the Classic, so how is that type of head-to-head performance not impressive? Sure, I get the arguments for HDG, Cape Blanco and the others--just found yours original and refreshing.

It is fascinating how people can see the same race and reach different conclusions.

Out of Bounds won the Sham beating the second and third place horses by half a length and half a length. This means the third place finisher, Longview Drive, was one length behind him.

How did Longview Drive fare in his previous start? He was beaten 6 and a half lengths by Sabercat.

What does this make Sabercat?

Face it, Out of Bounds ran past  the two front runners. The race was not much.

The discussion about whether Out Of Bounds is a grinder or a plodder...can someone define 'grinder', please? I'm inclined to agree with GunBow that grinder is not a derogatory term in general, and that stars/superstars can indeed have that characterization. I've seen both Curlin and Invasor described as grinders on these BH blogs over the past few years.

Union Rags may have run farther than Hansen in the BCJ, but without knowing the exact effects of the track surface dynamics on either horse, it's difficult to say what that actually means. It doesn't take a geological engineer to know that running on quicksand might be more arduous than running on asphalt for example. Both horses were probably tired at the end of that race, but Hansen beat an obvious bias that afternoon.

Artax was one of my favorite sprinters. It's sad that he, Indian Charlie, and Real Quiet are all gone from that crop.

Pedigree Ann I dont go that far back,but in reference to the Whithers on February 4,if memory serves me the same race last year had a different name.The name was changed to the Withers this year 2012.

The runners in question are:

Union Rags, Hansen, Wrote, Dullahan, Gemologist, Ever So Lucky, Out Of Bounds, Liaison, Creative Cause, O’Prado Again, So Brilliant, Rousing Sermon, El Padrino, Sabercat, Alpha, Discreet Dancer, Secret Circle.

JerseyBoy 09 Jan 2012 10:10 PM

O'Prado Again sustains fracture, off Triple Crown trail.

As a longtime Caracortado fan, I was skeptical about Bejarano picking up the mount for the Daytona, even though I did have a problem with young Joe keeping the gelding too far back, leaving him too much ground to make up in the stretch.  There were several races where I believe Bejarano got Blind Luck beat in this way.  Seeing Caracortado drop back at the start and continue to lose ground, at one point lagging 12-15 lengths behind the two leaders, it appeared that my skepticism was justified.  While I was fully aware of the speed dual up front, I still believed this was ridiculously too far back.  "Shocked" is too mild a word to describe my feelings as the tough little gelding, almost like a cartoon character donning a cape, burst out of nowhere onto the screen and flew past the three rivals.  As if he come out of another dimension, it gave an eerie appearance similar to that of a flock of penquins simultaneously bursting out of the water onto the shore.  I still believe Bejarano gave him a not-so-good ride, which the horse was miraculously able to overcome, and only hope this extraordinary effort does not set the gelding back... ala Bob Back Jack who needed months to recover after each race.  It's never good for a racehorse to run that fast.  He actually won with more stretch to spare, and could have slowed it down just a bit.  Interestingly, Bejarano was quoted as saying that he has never previously been on a horse that showed him that much acceleration in the stretch!  I thought Blind Luck showed a nice closing kick,  but apparently Caracortado's is better.  Now, if he could just get that G1 win.

Well...224 and jacob....First jacob, game on dude is a nice alw horse...In case you havent figured out..The older division sucked! the best should run 112 to 115 beyers....Argue all you want, they were very weak....The classic was won by a horse that ran a 102...one of the weakest ever! Why? all the favorites didnt run their race...not hard to figure out, they all had been sharp too long....Uncle mo fired too big(like i told you all). People think horses can stay sharp for months upon months...Not the case! At no time was god the top horse in 2011....he was 3rd or 4th....thru the year. Now 224...OUT OF BOUNDS?  When is the derby? may? what month is it? jan? Not what you want! A sharp horse this early.....Visually, i know what a good horse looks like....And he looks like a good horse.......Whats his next race? san felipe? earlier? I will bet against him  his next race. If i had to guess, he wont even be in the derby......

Pedigree Ann and Footlick: I agree 100%.  

I agree. RIP to Artax. I'll never forget seeing the photos and race replays of that infamous race for him that involved a person running out to punch him. It was miraculous that no one was injured that day. I thought it was a joke when it was first brought up, but saw the replay and wow. Can't imagine what the atmosphere would have been like to have been there in person and not seeing it in media aftewards.

My favorite sired by him was Diabolical.

Wish Cozi Rosie the best in Japan as well. I really liked her on the track and bet she'll be a very nice broodmare.

Stephanoatsee might develop later on into a nice colt as well. He closed from way out of it to be second to Alpha. He seems to try every time out. A family thing as Shack runs his eyeballs out everytime he steps out there. Shack danced at all the big dances this year. Wonder if he'll return the same this year?

tcc:

Thanks for the correction. I simply copied the list from a betting site.

I never checked further because the detail was not crucial to the point I wanted to make. Thanks.

Coldfacts,

The introduction of the top Australian sire Lonrho to American breeders should be very interesting. That stallion does have Northern Dancer via Nureyev in the 5th generation on his sire's side and Raise A Native via Mr Prospector in the 4th generation on the dam side as well as Nasrullah (5th generation) and Hyperion, inbred 6X6 via Aristophanes and Aureole. Therefore broodmares carrying any of these bloodlines should make very potent matings (assuming conformation compatibility). Daughters of Dixieland Band qualify. It would also be interesting to see daughters or grandaughters of Strawberry Road (a former Australian champion himself), carring Northern Dancer via Nijinsky, covered by him. This is a very good gesture towards improving North American bloodstock, especially in the Turf deparment, by the Godolphin/Darley outfit. Perhaps you shouldn't be so pessimistic about American breeders.

Wait a minute KY Vet now you are stating that you wrote on this blog that Uncle Mo fired too big.Well I hate to spoil your fun, but you were one of the main touts of Uncle Mo on this board.In fact after the classic you stopped posting your rants for awhile.Dont think I dont recall my exchanges with you on Uncle Mo running in the classic.A profesional gambler would never had been so high on a colt with such an abreviated campaign trying to stretch out to a distance he had never run,and doing it against older horses.

Kingkapper, yes, Alpha is a horrible gate horse. They have their work cut out.

Pedigree Ann and Footlick, I remember when I thought Iron Constitution was going to come out of the Withers and take down Slew in the Preakness. What can I say, I was young and stupid.

Jersey Boy, I think it's difficult this time of year to measure performances by who did a horse beat and how did that loser do in their last race just because this is the time of year they start taking leaps and bounds forward in their development. Time will tell about Out of Bounds.

So, the first one down: O'Prado Again has a condylar fracture :(

Supposed to be fine though.

:24,

“I too am skeptical of any "best Derby prospect in years"

The above extract from your post suggests you have endorsed Mr. SOS misrepresentation of a point I made in one of my posts. You are advised to read statements from their original sources less you follow those who are blinded by their refusal to see. Below is the entire paragraph containing the original statement:-

“I am also in agreement that OOB is a nice colt who will be extremely good when he figures out the game. I also have major reservations about his trainer. (This colt is probably one of his best Derby prospect in years). I hope he gets it right this time”

Kindly note the section bracketed. The statement was made in direct reference to Out Of Bounds’ trainer and not in general. Mr. Harty is on record stating that OOB appears to have more potential than his 2008 Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John thus my conclusion that Out Of Bound is his best derby prospect in year. You will note my statement in no way projected Out Of Bounds as the best Derby prospect seen in 2012 or years. If you choose to follow those that are incapable of comprehending written words then you leave yourself exposed to misinformation.

KINGKAPPER,

Let me reiterate I am not a thoroughbred  ‘Prophet’ I do not know how long you have been on the board but most posters here regard me as an idiot. Some state it openly and other are too polite to go on the record. It's all fun! Anyone who knows a quality thoroughbred would have seen what I saw when Out Of Bound finished 4th on debut. I have been highlighting young thoroughbreds for some time. I wrote at thread on Rachel Alexandra after her second place finish in the 2008 Glll Debutant. I predicted she would be a monster when given more real estate to cover. Well she justified my assessment. I did the same think for Mine That Bird heading into the Breeder Cup Juvenile. Well, he finished last. Six months later he was the Derby winner. My good Pal Ranagulzion can confirm that my debut post on this blog ended with the words “Fly home with Summer Bird” He went to win the Belmont at 12-1. Most on the blog then were in love with the celebrated and overhyped Dunkirk. Sometime I get it right.

Ranagulzion,

The bracketed portion of the extract from one of your posts has left me confused.

“If he was tired as you speculate, that would be reasonable for a 2YO stretching out for the first time (and running faster than the winner)”

For the records I did not make it pass primary school, consequently I am academically challenged. I am therefore requesting an explanation on how it is possible for Union Rags who reached the finish line after Hansen and was running faster than his victor.  I am aware that at different stages of a race, riders call on their horses for more speed. However, the horse that gets to the finish line first covers the distance in the fastest time and consequently ran faster than its opponents irrespective of the winning margin. A horse might run faster than another at a certain point in a race but ultimately the winner is deemed to have run faster than the losers in that particular race.

There are no adjustments allowed to the finishing times for loosers due to antics or misfortunes.

I would appreciate the removal my dunce cap.

WHO...You wouldnt believe me, if i told you how much ive made in this game......yes i loved uncle mo...he was the best of his crop....and Yes! I told people i cannot bet him in the classic....Why? I know more than most.......I'm the best because i can SEE THE FUTURE! By looking at the past! People, go back and look at that 118 beyer. Look at the time. Look at the gap from 1st and 3rd. Uncle mo was great! But running that fast DOES something to a horse...Check out bellamy roads wood...sinister's bluegrass..etc.....Each race does something to a horse....learn!!!!

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A DUCK, QUACKS LIKE A DUCK...........IT must be some kinda LUNCH MEAT!

Tiznowbaby:

You wrote:

"Time will tell about Out of Bounds".

I agree totally. However, this applies to  all of   them. That is why I judge them by what they have accomplished.

HDG horse of the year,just read she's rated 59 on the world rankings.

KY VET and 2:24,

Maybe you should try reading a post before making a comment against another person. Coldfacts simply stated that Out Of Bounds was Harty's best KY Derby prospect in years. And I completely agree with his opinion.

Jersey Boy,

What you are missing from your logic is that some horses improve and some do not. Look, in only his 3rd career start, Out Of Bounds was cracked with the whip a few times and then he spurted away to the wire. The horse is still maturing and his best race is still ahead of him.

Coldfacts,

In his 3rd career start, I do not know how much more impressive Out Of Bounds could have been. He sat behind a fast pace and accelerated past his rivals with ease. Gomez stopped whipping him and just hand rode him to the wire. He is still learning what his job is and I am expecting him to keep on improving as the distances increase. Forward gallop, plod, grind, call it whatever you want to, Out Of Bounds is a classy horse with a ton of natural ability. 99 beyer or 79 beyer, just watch how he was hand ridden at the end of his maiden win and in his Sham win. If he was trained by Pletcher at Gulfstream Park, many bloggers would be over the moon with this grand colt. Anyway, we both have to enjoy the 10-1 odds and hope that in his next race he is considered to be a plodder by the general public. Maybe then we can get 4-1 on him. Thanks again for all of your research and have a great week.

JACOB

I enjoy many of your comments.

Coldfacts, Forbidden Apple:  I was in no way endorsing KY Vet's opinion or disagreeing with you.  Nor was I attributing "the best Derby prospect in years" to you, Coldfacts.  I was simply asking KY Vet his opinion on Out of Bounds, a horse that looks very good to me at this point of the year, while stating (by using a phrase from KY Vet's post) that I am skeptical of overhyping any horse at this point.  Again, Coldfacts, the quote was not meant as an indictment of anything you've posted.  Sorry for the confusion.

Ky Vet do you think I am the only one that remembers your rant supportting Uncle Mo on this board.I dont think I could teach you about this game because you think you know it all,and by your being so sure about Mo,I think you dont know much.Read and learn on this board KY Vet but it will be hard for you,YOU CANT TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS.

Forbidden Apple:

You wrote:

"some horses improve and some do not."

I totally agree. The difference in approach is that I wait to see which ones improve. For all I know some horses are have already shown their lifetime best.

Coldfacts,

The fact that Union Rags ran farther than Hansen and finished heads-on with him at the wire means that he ran faster, plain and simple. Their Beyer speed wwere identical and there are other speed measurement systems that factor in trip and calculate Union Rags as running faster than Hansen. It is not my invention but yes a little more sophisticated than just final time and photo-finish. Its time to stop being selective on the cold facts my friend. Union Rags deserves to be champion 2YO of 2011.

If I waited to see how good Out Of Bounds was, I would have missed a win bet on him at 10-1! I liked his maiden win a lot and was projecting continued improvement from him. According to your logic Sabercat is 5 lengths better than Out Of Bounds. You are not accounting for any improvement in Longview Drive since his race against Sabercat. My point is that some horses improve and you can not just say that Sabercat is better than Out Of Bounds when they have never raced each other. For me, Out Of Bounds toyed with the Sham field and his best is yet to come.

Ranagulzion talk about calling the kettle black.I know you and Coldfacts are arch enemies on this blog(or thats the way it seems)The Coldfacts are that he lost to Hansen in head to head competition.Dont make excuses for him he lost.The first tie breaker in any voting to eliminate subjectivity SHOULD be head to head competition. That is if a tie breaker is needed, because of lack of races for the year in question. Otherwise all it will be is a popularity contest.Both colts are lightly raced so I think its time to put away the Editors Notes and concede that Hansen is undefeated and one of his wins was against Union Rags.I  know that twenty years from now nobody will be talking about who won the eclipse award, they will be talking about a horses  record as in wins and losses.Hansen is undefeated Union Rags is not.Lets see how each does on the triple crown trail and beyond before we decide who is the best 3 yo.BTW I could understand this constant topic of discussion if you had any type of breeding rights to either,because the award is probably a good reason to increase the stud fee.If either of you combatants Cold Facts or Ranagulzion has any interest in either colt then post it on here.If it is because one of you wants to be the prophet on here Cold Facts broke out the gate and is in front with the selection of Out of Bounds.

So what exactly does the winner of the eclipse get.Ky vet didnt you say the winners get a trophy AND a check.

WHO....The fact is.... uncle mo was the best ...of his year...i'm not dray! i know what i'm doing. People were surprised that i didnt like my fav horse in the classic off a 118 beyer....i said it was too good. Its called handicapping! And also, i said out of bounds looks like a good horse...I know what great horses look like....what i said is he just improved all 3 races....its jan..as soon as he stops improving, he is toast.....youre asking him to stay sharp 6 months.....NOT WHAT YA WANT.....common sense...but the horse looks like a really nice horse...

Fact is... i didn't like the classic...mo was gonna bounce, most favs were tried , after being sharp to long...was gonna stay out. But placed small bet on foriegn horse......you can be right, and still lose....102 weak beyer...hence the longshot wins....thats horseracing!

Anyone see comma to the top bear out all the time? How about nehro? animal kingdom? arch arch lug? what happened to them? How about secret circle? Anyway..horses are very mechanical....one ankle or knee has problem, throws things out of whack........2 words.......union rags.........

who,

Coldfacts is not my arch-enemy on these blogs as you suppose. I'd say he's my buddy and chief sparring partner on these blogs: our differing perspectives and spirited debates are often informative for me and great fun. The "fact man" does his research well and argues with conviction even if he adds some "wicked" spin to the cold facts and a little embroidery to the truth occassionaly (LOL).

My views on the Eclipse award for 2YO champion are well documented on these blogs and I wouldn't want to repeat everything I've written. However let me summarise for your benefit. Hansen raced twice in obscurity trampling inferior opposition then shows up at the Breeder's Cup and wins by the narrowest of margins over a colt that ran four times on four different tracks, three in graded stakes competition, stirring the hearts of fans with his versatility (in the mud, on dry track, from the front as well as from off the pace and navigating traffic) yet you believe that one-dimensional-running, two-track-campaigning Hansen deserves to be champion over Union Rags? The Breeder's Cup Juvenile is indeed the biggest 2YO race but Union Rags lost no marks in that defeat, while taking nothing away from a stout-hearted and determined front-running Hansen. When the totals of both their season's work is brought forth including the BCJ, every fair-minded analyst should see quite clearly which horse ought to be champion 2YO for 2012. The result of the photofinish in the BCJ shouldn't be the be-all-end-all of a championship. Lets see what the judges/voters decide.

Ranagulzion,

As an academically challenged individual your very detailed response to the 'run faster' issue was very thought provoking. The shortest distance between two points is straight line. The more experienced Union Rags did not use the shortest distance between the starting gates and winning  post and consequently ran farther than 8F. What does the records reflect? Distance 8F; Union Rage 2ND by a Nose; wide on turns; drifted in stretch. Nowhere in the records will you see the distance, 8F and a fraction. Hansen was ahead of Union Rags for the first 6F of the race. He therefore ran faster at that point. Union Rags might have been running faster in the latter part of the race. In the end the records will reflect that Hansen was the faster of the two as he won without being headed. I have seen a lot of horse swing wide and win races and I have never heard it said that they ran farther to win. Is there any excuse you will not advance of Union Rags’ loss?

Who,

I do not know about my Pal Ranagulzion but I do not have and interest in either Union Rage or Hansen. I have no desire to be a thoroughbred prophet. Union Rags and Hansen are currently behind the leading 3YO seen out so far in 2012.

Forbidden Apple,

You highlighted that Out Of Bounds ran 1:23 & 1:34.56 for 7F and 8F in his last two races. What the skeptics do not realize is the fact that this 17 hands immature colt has not been juiced as yet. There is no doubt that lasix improves performance. It is scary to think that an immature colt can run this fast already without the widely used to performance enhancer. With maturity and the inevitable introduction of this drug he is likely to run even faster.  Of course this is all speculation as he might just disappoint going forwards. Out of Bound defeated the previously undefeated and faster  3YO in the country with only a maiden win to his credit. Secret Circle is trained Speedy Bob who dominates CA racing. I do not think most can grasp the magnitude of his victory. Nice colt.

KY VET DUDE WHAT ARE YOU SMOKIN?ON WHAT PLANET WAS UNCLE MO THE BEST LAST YEAR.HE WON THE TROPHY IN 2010 NOT LAST YEAR.

Wow!

First..KY Vet...Uncle Mo was the best sprinter of the 3 year olds.  But not stamina influenced enough to be a router or healthy enough to top other sprinters.

A grinder is a horse that reaches a high cruising speed early, and sustains it over a distance.  AP Indy was a grinder, and a fabulous champion.  We, however, tend to be more stimulated by the late closers who save their energy and their final kick for the final 2f.  I think Zen used her off time watching training films of Silky Sullivan.  They are the "heart-attack" whizz kids.  We've seen it with Goldikova, Sea The Stars, and recently with Caracortado.

Coldfacts: You express yourself better than most.  I simply find that you sometimes miss the forest for the trees.  You do excellent research.  But I find more substantive conclusions in more recent histories.  As I said, all TB's are descendents of 3 major stallions.  How far back will you go to support a theory?  I don't believe going as far back as RAN is as beneficial as noting that Buckpasser is in the bloddlines of Einstein, and we might find some superior progeny once those foals come to the track.  Or noting that Indian Charlie will likely not sire a Belmont winner unless the colt's dam has superior stamina from the Princequillo line.  All in all, I find bloodlines fascinating; it's merely your conclusions that I sometime feel are off base.

Ranagul:  I don't have objectivity?  Did we see the same race?  I love Union Rags.  I think he's a top notch prospect for the TC.  What I like best is his ability to overcome adversity.  I was rooting for him in the BCJ. What I saw, however, was a green colt who veered out in the final furlong, and cost himself the race.  I was bowled over by Hansen's win...white lightning uncorked.  He was impressive.  When I checked out the bloodlines. I was even more impressed by Hansen.  He can go 12f...I don't know if Union Rags can.  I don't see where his sire ever ran 10f.  That bothers me..as did the veering out.  But the season's early.  UR can improve given the right training.  I really don't know if Hansen can rate, or how he will face adversity.  I simply know how Seattle Slew overcame in his Derby, and it could happen again.  All of that remains to be seen.  All I know for certain is that UR and Hansen were 2 equally matched colts on the same track at the same time, and Hansen won the BCJ.  For that alone, Hansen deserves the Eclipse for 2 year old. (and that he could run in a straight line.)

Jacob...I really do feel that Game On Dude was superior in the BCC.  Every time I've seen him run, he's in it 110%.  If he had seen Dross, Dross would not have won that race.  He's actually been in so many dogfights over the past year, that I think he does deserve HOY.  And unlike Shack, he's won most of his races.  (And I never expected him to carry his speed over the 10f, but he did.  That surprised me.)  He always digs in.  HDG didn't.

As to 3 year olds, as much as I love me my Bernardini's, Stay Thirsty was a grinder, To Honor and Serve wasn't healthy enough to showcase his superior talent, Uncle Mo didn't have the stamina, and Shackleford couldn't win more than one big race.  Archarcharch retired early due to injury.  While I think Animal Kingdom will take down this Eclipse because his runs in the TC were great, I still like Caleb's Posse best because he ran all year.  Sprinter or not, he showed us his best...always.  That's more than we've seen from the rest.

The two best racehorses of the year were:

Afleet Again and Shackleford.

They carried the heart of racing with them. Like two little kids after a race you could picture them saying: "Did I do Okay?!"

You could feel the beat of racing in their hearts. You two did more than Okay.

Hey Vets KY and Keeneland you two are like heckle and jeckle on this board.I bet you both have hangovers after sucking on the bottle last night.

KY VET,

Uncle Mo was the most overrated horse in the last 30 years. He could barely handle one of the weakest crops of 3 year olds we've seen in years. Beyers don't equal greatness.

Look people.....3 yr old division champ is Calub posse right? It was very very weak. Weak derby, preakness, belmont....Just because you people think running fast doesnt matter, your ignorant minds cant grasp the fact that mo ran faster as a 2yr old than any triple crown race this year...do you people know what 1 beyer point is? 118 beyer way the top race of any older horse ran! mile or more...108 as 2yr old one of the best EVER.....Whats wrong with you people? Was calub a 11/4 winner? He is the champ right? who exactly do you think was better?  How many 3 yr olds won at a mile and a quarter? DUH! It doesnt occur to anyone that stay thirsty had about as good a year as anyone? The owner and trainer didnt even think he was close to uncle mo. You know why? he wasnt. 118 beyer! weak crop! name someone better!

People! Over and over you people keep talking about lasix like its some kinda big deal. Man, it just makes the horse pee! which lowers the blood pressure...ban it and you just go back to not letting the horse eat or drink coming up to a race.......its no big deal! Coldcuts should talk about what he knows.....cant be a long list

PS Ranagul: Union Rags won (3) an MSW allowance at 5.5f.  He won the Grade2 Saratoga Special at 6f.  And he won the G1 Champagne at one mile.Dela, Saratoga and Belmont.

Hanson won (2) a 5.5f MSW at Turfway Park, and then moved up to 8.5f winning the KY Cup Juvenile also at Turfway.  

I still say, they were evenly matched, and Hansen handled the distance that Union Rags had never run, on a track that was proclaimed to be cuppy and exhausting.  Head to head, Hansen simply outran UR, and deserves the Eclipse.

I don't think either horse faced any stiff competition before the BCJ, and I think they both did well in the BCJ where they did face other top colts.  

The biggest question will be who will still be around on the first Saturday in May?  No one knows, but I can't wait to see more from these two.

Ranagulzion

Your comments below suggest you should be a writer for Comedy Central.

“The "fact man" does his research well and argues with conviction even if he adds some "wicked" spin to the cold facts and a little embroidery to the truth occasionally (LOL)”.

I have been accused of a providing misinformation to the vulnerable less informed. I have been called a liar, Whack Job, Clueless etc., you have added two new categories Can you provide an example of my "wicked" spin to the cold facts? I would also appreciate an example of my embroidering the truth occasionally.  How could anyone read our exchanges and conclude we are enemies? I do believe our exchanges are responsible for getting you of your Pletcher addition.

Mr. Shandler specified that Union Rags is undoubtedly the Derby favorite. You no doubt agree. Both out you are Out Of Bounds.

Slew,

“As I said, all TB's are descendents of 3 major stallions.  How far back will you go to support a theory?’

I am guided by the Pedigree Online web site.  It reflects five generation but the option is available to research beyond. I therefore go back 5 generations.

“I don't believe going as far back as RAN is as beneficial”  

Raise A Native is undoubtedly one of the most influential sire and grandsire in the last 33 years. The fact that you have post the above question suggests that you are not of this opinion. His sire Native Dancer needs no introduction. Raise A Native four most prominent sons Majestic Prince, Exclusive Native, Alydar and Mr. Prospector have collective dominated the Triple Crown series as sires grandsires and great grandsires in the last 22 years. Their tally stands at 45 TC races won. No other sire and grandsire comes close. My highlighting that the RAN sire line is the most Powerful Force in the Triple Crown cannot be regarded as insignificant.

Slew,

I think that we've exhausted the 2YO Eclipse awards debate. I said all that I've felt a need to say and will rest my case and wait for the result of the voters/judges. If Hansen wins the vote I wouldn't protest because he's a very good horse and a worthy candidate. I think that Union Rags is more deserving when all factors are considered but we'll see.

On the matter of Union Rags stamina I've written about his stamina-laiden pedigree loaded with inbreeding to the great Epsom Derby winner and sire of sires,  Hyperion and his English Triple crown winning sire, the reputed stamina influence of old, Gainsborough. As for UR's sire Dixie Union, he won the Haskell, placed fourth in the 2000 Travers and sired Grasshopper, close runner-up to Street Sense in the 2007 Traverse (10 furlongs in 2:02). Dixie Union died as a fairly young stallion. His sire Dixieland Band is an indisputable Derby-winner-producing influence. Union Rags has seven triple crown winners (three English: Gay Crusader, Gainsborough and Nijinsky and four American: Omaha, War Admiral, Secretariat and Seattle Slew) in his pedigree. He has one of the finest classic pedigree on the planet, bred to run fast and long on dirt, grass or synthetic. Thirty four years is a long time to wait for a Triple Crown winner but this could be the year and Union Rags the horse.

Coldfacts,

I'm curious to know how you would compare the galloping actions of Union Rags and Out Of Bounds, having read your assessment of UR's power gallop, stating that it is unsuitable for a 10 Furlongs horse. I want to see how 'wickedly' you spin the lumbering-plodding action of Out of Bounds (LOL). BTW he does look like a good one in the making ...being from the Northern Dancer line, I have to pay attention but I'm not impressed with his galloping style.

Regarding the embroidering of truth, you occassionally add 'frills' to the comparisons of running times on different tracks under differing conditions to 'beautify' your argument. The running times are true but often the rest is embroidery. Anyway its always great knocking heads with you.

ColdFacts,

I like the fact that Out Of Bounds is not a lasix junky yet. A ban on lasix is coming soon. What's important is that the Sham provided graded stakes earnings. And of course I would like to see Gomez get healthy too.

KYVET,

The best horse Uncle Mo ever beat as a 2 year old was Boys@Tosconova. And the best horse he beat as a 3 year old was Jackson Bend. Wow, that's amazing! Uncle Mo is on course to receive the Hype of the Year award. He is just what horse racing does not need, a horse with 8 career starts calling it quits. Seriously, he has 2 career grade I wins, the marketing of this horse is more impressive than his ability.

Who is the best horse ANY 3 yr old beat? WOW! 118 beyer means nothing huh? The horse got sick...big deal! You dont know a good horse!

Coldcuts....somehow you think you are mr.stride....tell me your thoughts on shacklefords! Do you think he is sound? sweaty...bad sign #1...changes leads late...runs sideways....in the cup, he changed leads late.. then finally changed..then went back to wrong lead! One of the worst signs.......beware!

Ranagul:  My point was that Dixie Union never WON at 10f.  That's what bothers me.  Hansen's pedigree too, is not short of talent and TC influence.  When it comes to the TC (I've already noted that I don't choose my favorite early since I had BCJ winner, Vindication tagged as the next TC winner).  I need to see more from more colts (and fillies) before I pick my favorite. So far Hansen is my leading candidate...so far.

Coldfacts: I think my problem might be that while your attribute so many winners to RAN bloodlines...a portion of those winners also carried Seattle Slew and Secretariat bloodlines.  It's a potent combination for any horse.

You continue to obfuscate that fact by deluging us with too many facts.

I could say Slew is also the only Belmont Stakes winner to sire a Belmont Stakes winner (A.P. Indy), who in turn sired a Belmont Stakes winner (Rags to Riches). That's a fact!  

However, the true fact is: there would be no AP Indy without a Secretariat dam.

You need to give credit where it's due, but I think you mislead when you give all the credit to RAN alone.  Mr Prospector is a potent sire...but...although his sire was RAN, his dam was by Nashua, a son of Nasrullah.  

My point is...you tend to spin the facts to support your agenda, and you rarely consider the xfactor of the dam.

Enough said...it's been fun  

...Ranagul..Coldfacts..

Pedigree Ann, in theory I agree with what you said about moving the Withers.  However, I actually think I like it better as now it can be a Derby prep and generate some excitement.  Gone are the days when the triple crown runners entered that race also during their quest for the crown.  It had been relegated to an after thought in it's previous place so I like the idea of the change much better than discontinuing it altogether!

Slew,

I agree with all your points. Excluding the influence of the 34 broodmares associated with the 47 Triple Crown victories associated with RAN line stallions is inexcusable. Why do broodmares bred to RAN line stallions produce the winners of so many TC race? If these broodmare are the dominant influence, why is this dominance significantly less with other sire lines resulting in their moderate record in the Triple Crown races? Mr. Prospector was most prolific son of Raise A Native at stud. He was via a Nashua broodmare. Could the fact that he was produced from a Nasrullah line mare contribute to his dominance? Your Guess is as good as mine. Exclusive Native, Alydar and Majestic Prince did not have the longevity of Mr. P and their sons and grandsons did not advance the RAN sire line to any significant degree.

Going forwards I will Cease and Desist from mentioning the Raise A Native sire line. I do believe the Mr. Prospector sire line is the more appropriate one to highlight. BTW what do the 2009 and 2010 HOY and likely 2011 HOY have in common. It certainly could have nothing to do with Mr. Prospector. Well sorry to say it does. Rachael Alexandra the 2009 HOY was produced from a Roar broodmare. Roar just happens to be a grandson of Mr. Prospector. Zenyatta 2010 HOY was sired by Street Cry who just happens to be a grandson Mr. Prospector. Havre De Grace the 2011 HOY designate was produced from a Carson City broodmare. Carson City is a son of Mr. P. Blame who denied Zenyatta  a second BCC was produced from a Seeking the Gold broodmare. Seeking the Gold is a son of Mr. P.

The Mr. Prospector broodmare line is starting to dominate just like his sire line. Can one sires of sire be that influential? Based on the evidence where should the credit go?

Aside from the Eclipse and the TC and pedigrees..I can't sit still any more as I watch horse racing devolve.

Let's assume you work for a company that does not allow alcohol on its premises.  Well, maybe you want a pick me up.  I think it's one thing to surreptitiously slip a bit of Bailey's in your coffee, or some Vodka in your OJ.  But it's a whole different ball game when you take a few fifths out to the main lobby and sit and drink them while welcoming clients with a stagger.

The infractions by Rick Dutrow are as blatant and demeaning to the sport as they are to the NYRA.  I'm sorry he was allowed to be re-instated, while his suspension was pending appeal.  I don't know the man, I don't like or dislike him, I'm just disgusted to constantly read about his continual abuse of the system, and smearing of the sport in the national news.  

Perhaps, Jason, you can shed more light on recent events than we have been fed by the media??????

When speaking of 3yos for the Derby, all of you seem to be forgetting Creative Cause. Looking at his pedigree, he has the best chance of the three on-the-board BC Juvie finishers to progress to be a superior Derby/Belmont horse. His sire hit his peak at 3 as a 10f specialist, while his millionaire dam didn't hit her peak until 5, and her sire was a 10f G1 SW. Not a fashionable damside, but an accomplished one.

Off topic, but about a 3-year old colt this spring...did anyone see the George Bolton owned Spring Hill Farm run at Gulfstream this P.M.? He won his maiden start at 7f., is by Smart Strike (yes, a RAN), and looked really nice to me. Any thoughts??

Karen in Texas,

You might have seen my numerous posts citing the number of TC races won by horse sired by RAN line stallions. You asked for thoughts on the Smart Strike colt Spring Hill Farm. The 47 TC races won by horses sired by RAN line stallions were produced from 34 broodmares. Interestingly, none of these broodmares were sire by a Ribot line stallion.  Spring Hill Farm’s dam sire Pleasant Colony was a grandson of the great Ribot. Pleasant Colony broodmares have not been associated with many top class horse. In fact, broodmares sired by Derby winners have a strained relationship with Triple Crown races. The last time a broodmare sired by a Derby winner produced a derby winner was 46 year ago. It could be argued that a broodmare sired by a Derby winner is well overdue to produce a derby winner.

NB: Ribot was dame sire of 1974 Derby winner Cannonade. It is not inconceivable that his classy grandson can do the same.

Coldfacts---Thanks for your reply. I realize that Pleasant Colony is the broodmare sire of Spring Hill Farm. I was wondering more if you or others had seen the race today; and how his physical appearance, running style/characteristics, professionalism, etc., impressed you.

You mentioned Ribot. He was on the dam side of Belmont winner, Risen Star, as well, I believe.

Karen in Texas,

Karen in Texas,

Ribot was the grand dam sire of Risen Star. His son His Majesty was the dam sire. I have not seen the race but the final time of 1:24.51 is moderate at best for the Gulfstream Park strip. Unless he was in hand a 100 meters out, he is probably not amongst Mr. Pletcher’s top string. Pleasantly Perfect was sired by Pleasant Colony and his dam was sired by Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Spring Hill Farm has the Ran on top and the Ribot on the bottom. Pleasantly Perfect was a late developer and Spring Hill Farm may be better as a 4YO.

Coldfacts: Thank you.  I think we should take note at this time that since Citation..(bloodline of Bull Lea and Hypeion) we have had only 3 TC winners.  Affirmed is an RAN, but Secretariat and Seattle Slew both were from the Nasrullah and Princequillo (xfactor) lines.  Since the 70's the pinnacle of sires have been Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat.  There has been so much inbreeding since the 70's, that the horses running today usually have 2 or more of these sires in their bloodlines.  You cannot differentiate the probabilities of winners from any one sire line.  RA and Zen also have Princequillo in their bloodlines.  HDG has MR.P, Northern Dancer, AND Buckpasser.  Buckpasser was from the Man O'War line.  I would sincerely like to see more outbreeding...more Buckpasser (which is why I think Einstein will, in time, prove to be a worthy sire).  Lonrho looks exciting.  Consider that leading sires in the world (Galileo and Sea The Stars) are both Northern Dancer and Mr. P.  It's difficult to find any outbreeding...but maybe it will happen.  We need more stamina in NA horses. We seem to have bred it out of them in favor of speed.  Perhaps the 70's will remain the "golden age" forever.  It would be a sad indictment of our breeding potential.

Congratulations San Fran though I was rooting for the Saints...it was a great game.  Tebow...you're a running back, not a QB.  Laser precision from Brady and all the Pats.  With my 'Boys out, I'll have to pick an NFC worthy Champion.

Coldfacts---I'll try to link the replay from the BH site.

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../a-wild-win.aspx

Chucky,

Now I understand why you hate Rachel Alexandra and knock her every chance you get.  She won HOY for 2009 and you can't forgive her for that.  That I understand.

Also, as far as Rachel not being able to run 10 furlongs, she did run 10 furlongs.  She was beaten by 1 length and was well ahead of the rest.  Had she not been pushed to the front all the way, she probably would have won.

Ranagulzion,

I did not know that a lumbering plodder like Out Of Bounds could sit 2 lengths off from splits of 22.66 45.89 and still finish the mile race in 1:34.56. All you have to do is watch the replay of his maiden win and his Sham win. The horse quickly caught his rivals and finished up in style. I thought his turn of foot was excellent when Gomez asked him to run.

In 2010 you predicted a triple crown winner in Eskendereya. In 2011 you predicted a triple crown winner in Uncle Mo. It's far to early to even consider this thought when it comes to Union Rags. But I will say that Union Rags is physically impressive and he is in good hands with Mr. Matz. I'm happy to see that you are not drinking the Pletcher punch this year.

Forbidden Apple,

I'm not shy to admit predicting Eskendereya as triple crown winner in 2010. In hindsight even a doubting thomas as yourself can now see that he could easily have romped all three legs against the likes of Super Saver, Looking at Lucky and Drosselmeyer, had he not been injured.

As for Uncle Mo, you are misrepresenting my position. I supported Mo for the Derby and Preakness but expressed doubt about his Belmont capabilities, based upon pedigree.  As soon as it became clear to me that Todd Pletcher was training him with "kids gloves" I switshed to Dialed In, and the records are here to show. Please don't fabricate stuff. Lets have an honest conversation.

Regading the "Pletcher Punch" he could knock you out with Discreet Dancer this year. Ignore Todd Pletcher in the Derby preps at your peril. His record speaks for itself.

Forbidden Apple,

I agree that Out of Bounds is a colt worth watching.  He's obviously a very big strapping colt that is improving with each race and could potentially be among the elite.  I'll wait to see if he can outrun Creative Cause and Laison in the battle for supremacy in California.  

I witnessed Eskendereya in the paddock before the Wood Memorial and he looked fat and average to me. He beat Jackson Bend, just like Uncle Mo, big deal. Super Saver was a one hit wonder that loved the mud, no one was beating him in the KY Derby. Lookin At Lucky was far more impressive to me, it's sad that he retired so early as a sound horse. And Drosselmeyer loved the distance of the Belmont. Eskendereya was a preseason star, nothing more. With Uncle Mo I am not fabricating anything, you and Draynay were all in on a horse who's biggest accomplishment was beating up on Boys@Tosconova. Both horses never even entered the starting gate of a triple crown race, just like Quality Road. Let me know when Discreet Dancer wins a graded stakes race. As you know I'm not a Pletcher junky, but Gemologist looks interesting to me.

Forbidden Apple,

Eskendereya displayed arguably the most impressive pre-Derby form of any 3YO in the last decade yet you scoff. I notice that you pick on injured or sick superstars in order to gloat that you didn't support them in races that they were unfit to race in. Shame on you "Apple".

First off, I do not consider Uncle Mo, Eskendereya, or Quality Road superstars. I'm not picking on them, just pointing out that you declared two of them as triple crown winners. And I was pointing out that it's far to early to start talking about Union Rags as if he is destined to be a triple crown winner. There is no gloating from my end, I tend not to believe the hype that's all.

Forbidden Apple,

I've observed that you dislike certain horses no matter how good they are, simply because they are trained by Todd Pletcher. You keep quiet when they win impressively but become quite verbose when things don't go right with them. Consequently I'm very curious to know what is it that makes Gemologist an exception for you.  

In my opinion the three horses I mentioned above were extremely hyped up. You might call them superstars, but not me. Your comments could not be further from the truth. I was completely against Eskendereya and Uncle Mo long before they were injured or sick. Especially when people like you are so easily flattered by Pletcher's every move. When people started compairing both horses to racing immortals like secretariat, I do find that offensive. Eskendereya won one grade I race and Uncle Mo won two grade I races, that's all. There are many reasons why I don't drink the Pletcher punch every year. This includes how his horses and workers are treated. For example, last fall he fired around 10 workers at Saratoga because they had visas. Trainers like Pletcher and Zito prefer to hire illegal immigrants(mainly from Guatemala) who will do whatever they say. Working morning and afternoon for $5 per hour. There have been many Pletcher trained horses that I have followed over the years. Left Bank, English Channel, Panty Raid, and Rags To Riches are a few of them. But those horses had tons of natural ability and could have been trained by Charlie Brown. With Gemologist I like his name, his sire Tiznow, his dams sire Mr. Prospector and the way he tracked the moderate pace in the KY Jockey Club.

Gemologist,

This colt is slow by Derby standards and appears to have a major issue on his front left. In short, I think he will not be around come Derby time because of soundness issues. In any event he is by a Mr. Prospector broodmare and the prospect of him getting the Derby distance in a competitive time is extremely romte.

I would focus on the The Gaints Causeway filly and the Smart Strike Colt.

Ranagul: you said "Regading the "Pletcher Punch" he could knock you out with Discreet Dancer this year. Ignore Todd Pletcher in the Derby preps at your peril. His record speaks for itself."

Uhhhh...he won his first KD ever in 2010 with Super Saver.  You're right...his record speaks for itself.