Discreet Dancer will have plenty of company on the front end with Csaba & News Pending.So,like I stated on the previous blog,Zito might surprise the field with Casual Trick if the pace falls apart.Algorithms should get a perfect stalking trip along with Union Rags,but look for the latter to hang a bit thru the lane.

My picks-- Algorithms/Casual Trick w/Algorithms/Casual Trick/D.Dancer/UR w/Same. Chalky,but they standout.8-1 on Casual Trick is too low,I think he'll go off @ 10,11-1 hoping he gets up.

El Padrino w/Mr. Bowling w/Z Dager straight-up. El Padrino has a close 2nd & 3rd on a fast track and we already know he loves an off track just in case ...

Jason:  Algorithms airs here. I think Optimizer is also sitting on go. Then my crystal ball goes cloudy. Nobody HAS to win, although I'd be surprised if Union Rags throws a clunker.

Risen Star - let's first take a minute to remember the horse Risen Star, the best male offspring of the great Secretariat and that if things had fallen a bit differently in Louisville that year, we may have had a Triple Crown winner.  (In my opinion, the three of the four most deserving would-be Triple Crown winning colts since 1978 lost in the Derby, Afleet Alex, Point Given, with The Bid obviously being most deserving who lost at Belmont).

As for the race, I have a hard time looking past El Padrino.  I like everything about this colt including his name.  If I had to pick a horse for the upset it would be Mark Valeski because betting on Rosie at the Fair Grounds is the closest thing to sure money that we have.

Fountain of Youth - let's take some time to remember the rendition of this race won by Read the Footnotes over Second of June.  One of the best races/stretch duels that is long forgotten.

As for the race, think the top 3 talked about colts will fill out the ticket.  If I had to pick a winner it would be Algorithms.  

Don't forget to join the RTTRs contest.  Our very own trackjack won the contest two years ago.  Let's keep it in the family.

I like Royal Delta and I credit her connections for bringing her back.

I know Bill Mott is HOFer but...

I have to question starting her on dirt, if the Dubai World Cup is the ultimate goal.

Dirt (Sabin) to Synthetic (Dubai W.C.) doesn't work very often. In fact, I use it as an automatic 'throw-out' when handicapping.

The last two World Cup's were run in a tight pack and the 'real' racing doesn't start 'til the last quarter. I don't see the Sabin setting up that way.

Thats my two cents.

strangely enough 'you' selected most of the same upsetters that 'i' did ...lol

The success of broodmares sire by Deputy Minister suggests that they should not be ignored in the evaluation process for potentials Derby contenders. It must be noted that despite their success none have produced a Derby winner. Below are few of the noteworthy horses produced from Deputy Minister broodmares:-

Curlin - Smart Strike - Sherriff’s Deputy by Deputy Minister

Rags To Riches - A P Indy- Better Than Honour by Deputy Minister

Sarava - Wild Again - Rhythm Of Life by Deputy Minister

To Honor and Serve - Bernardini - Pilfer by Deputy Minister

Half bridled - Unbridled Half Queen by Deputy Minister

Kane Hekili - Fuji Kiseki - Life out There by Deputy Minister

NOTE: Better Than Honour produced Jazil, Casino Drive and Man Of Iron.

The list of champions above contains three horses that were sires by Breeder Cup Classic winners i.e., Rags To Riches, Sarava and Halfbridled. To Honor and Serve and Kane Hekili were sired by sons of Breeder Cup Classic winners i.e., Bernardini (A P Indy) and Fuji Kiseki (Sunday Silence). Jazil, and Man Of Iron were sired by BCC second place finishers.

Where am I going with these cold facts? Straight to the Risen Star! El Pardino is the latest buzz colt from the Todd Squad. He will undoubtedly be the overwhelming favorite in the Risen Star. He will meet a colt with a profile that is similar to several of the champions above.  The colt is Tizanexpense who was sired by Tiznow and is out of Rezister an unraced Deputy Minister broodmare. He is a big strapping bay from the Michael Maker barn. My love affair with unraced mares is well known. Two times HOY Curlin; Belmont upset winner Sarava and Multilpe G1 winner (JPN) and 4th place finisher in the Dubai WC Fuji Kiseki were all products of unraced Deputy Minister broodmares. Are unraced Deputy Minister broodmares special? No!  Am I tailoring these cold facts in highlighting Tizanexpense?  Yes! Why Not? Based on the cold facts above this colt has the profile of a champion. Is it wise to assume that this colt has the credentials to be champion based on similarity of the pedigree profiles of past champions?  No! However, if he is evaluated on his last two races, he certainly has shown the kind of ability to be added to the Derby contenders’ pool. His first two starts were on turf and synthetic where he was comprehensively beaten. His next two starts were on dirt where he is unbeaten.  In his last victory he showed the same fight and determination that his sire displayed in his two BCC victories. El Pradino is from the all conquering barn of Todd Pletcher but can he overcome the advantages that many in the field appear to hold? Tizanexpense like many in the field has the advantage of having raced on the track  His winning time of 1:43.67 in his last race compares favorably with the 1:43.49 recorded by Lecomte winner Mr. Bowling. Tizanexpense has a more proven pedigree. He must have a chance against the anti-post favorite

There has been so much talk about how loaded the barns of Pletcher and Baffret are with Derby contenders. It appears all other barns are loaded with chopped liver. If a Michael Maker conditioned horse wins the Risen Star would anyone be surprised? He has conditioned the winners of top races throughout the US.

Jason. The Breeders Cup Juvenile is beginning to look like a soft race based on what those horses have done since that race in Nov. Most of do not expect Union Rags to be fully cranked so we should learn a lot on Sunday. Do you share the view that the BC Juvenile might not have been a stellar field?

The Factor owns the 6F dirt record at Santa Anita and was just shy (1:19.89) of the 7F record (119.70) opening day Malibu Stakes.

I would say he likes Santa Anita and is probably the fastest horse in the world right now and may even set the world record on Saturday.

It's Alli vs. Foreman

Off topic: They should demand the return of last year's HOY trophy from HDG and her connections on principle alone.What a mockery.It seems to be their M/O though..

Yeah, maybe she should have hid in California all year instead.

They never complained about the weight assignments and ran her nothing but Gr.I's.

This is amusing. Havre De Grace apparently can't handle 122 lbs for her debut. The Horse Of The Year by default can only handle 117 lbs! Lol seriously?! At least real champions like Zenyatta aren't afraid to run in grade 1s and carry weight. Seriously, why can't Grace run in the Santa Margarita? It makes sense considering the Breeders Cup will be run at Santa Anita. Perhaps now that the top California races are Zenyatta free they'll continue to attract grade 1 caliber mares as was the case last year. For everything Zenyatta got criticized for in 2010, Grace will get a pass for in 2012. Typical east coast double standard!

Grade I races for fillies are the same as grade III races in south or east. Sorry, but that's reality.

I'm fairly certain that HDG will defeat a grade I winner this year, unlike the 2010 SOY.

 I don't see what the big deal is.  Either of those races would've served as nice tighteners for the champ.  It's their perogative to launch their campaign in whatever spot they think is best.  I'm sure there will be a nice filly or two in the New Orleans race.  If not, no biggie.  There will be plenty of time for Havre de Grace to hook the bigger names along the way.  This will be the best weekend so far in 2012.  Can't wait to see if El Padrino is as good as I hope he is.

Yes I'm sure that there will be plenty of G1 winning fillies that will try her.

Wow Jason, you're really stoking the embers.  I was looking forward to insights on this promising group of 3 year olds but we may have another round of the Zenyatta/Rachel/Blame game coming soon to a blog near you.

FOY: Discreet Dancer will win.  Agree with 2:24 that UR and Algorithms will round it out.  Some are hoping for Discreet Dancer to be 3 or 4/1.  I predict he'll go less than 3/1, more like 5/2.  UR does not have to win and Michael Matz needs only to get a good race out of him.  His eye is on the prize on the first Saturday in May.

Risen Star: El Padrino cold over Tizanexpense and Afford.

2:24:  I'll be coming to the Tampa Bay Derby, will see you there.

Good Luck to everyone with RTTR and wagering this weekend.

Householder

  Those were my thoughts exactly about The Factor. A world record is possible if he shows up and gets the lead without much difficulty. I agree with Baffert. When The Factor is right, nobody can beat him. The 7f is probably his best distance. So few can run 6f speed for 7f. The Factor still has one of the best and smoothest strides in the world. Amazombie has been suberb and in the money every race for a very long time. It's off of the layoff so we'll see how that goes. I like your analogy of Ali vs. Foreman but wouldn't it be great if it was Ali vs. Frazier going 15 rounds. I'm with Carlos on the FOY. Algorithms stalks, pounces and pulls away. Maybe I'm naive but I see Discreet Dancer as the competition, not Union Rags. Whoever wins will be impressive that is for sure. Carlos could be right, it could be anyone for second, and we could have a surprise pace setter. This is no doubt going to be a ginat year for racing and this is a big weekend. Real curious to see if El Padrino can duplicate his last. How much of it had to do with him loving that off track? He certainly skipped along it very well. He does have a nice stride so he could just be getting better and prove it Saturday.

Coldfacts,

Why Deputy Minister? The most successful recent broodmare sires in terms of Derby success would have to be Unbridled, Dixieland Band or AP Indy.  In the recent years, these 3 have been the broomare sires of  3 Derby Winners, Super Saver(AP  Indy), Street Sense and Monarchos(Dixieland Band),  2 Derby Placers, Bluegrass Cat(AP Indy) and Eight Belles(Dixieland Band), and 2 Derby Shows, Denis of Cork(Unbridled) and Steppenwolfer(AP Indy). Where am I going with this? No where. I still like El Padrino. But, in the Risen Star, only Optimizer(AP Indy) and Afford(Unbridled) would fit the bill of such an approach.

Ahh, another supposedly "Triple Crown" conversation hijacked by zealots on one hand and haters on the other, who have nothing better to do than post snark about a certain Mare whose career is now 3 years buried. We haven't seen such a resurrection since Lazarus!

p.s. If you think it's bad now, just wait until she-who-shall-not-be-named drops her foal in a few days. I hear the 'due date' is around 1st of March. If people can get into it over the Momma, it gets really ugly when the baby gets involved.

yes cant say it enough, risen star coulda shoulda been triple crown winner that year...

good time to floor it with discreet dancer. he needs the money to go forward. dancer upsets the field. mr valeski to upset in the risen star.

Householder

  Or better yet- Lyle-Foreman. Best knockdown, dragout fight I ever saw. They kept knocking each other down.

A shame Mark Valeski is coupled with Mr. Bowling; the price won't be good and I like Valeski more. He'd be 10-1 on his own.

I'll be at Tampa Bay the day after the TBD; my first time there. Looking forward to it.

Age of Reason:  I certainly hope that Zenyatta's foal is healthy and both momma and baby do well.  But, that little son-of-a-Rachel is sure a good looking little guy.  In one of the pics from Anne Eberhardt's recent collection, he looks like a "little Curlin."  No matter what Zenyatta foals, Rachel's foal will be better looking.

I can’t argue with your picks Jason.  I love Discreet Dancer and think he could be an exceptional talent.  I am also surprised with all the hype about Algorithms and Union Rags that he has gained this much support with our fellow bloggers.  His ability to relax on the lead, if he goes into the lead of course, will be key.  John V. is good at rating front runners and getting maximum ability out of them.  His works are encouraging, always among the best in the morning, and yet he hasn’t gone too fast IMO.  I’m calling him for the win for sure.  You made a comment about Union Rags, that if he beats the top two in this race he could be the real deal.  I think that if he does beat them off the layoff he will definitely be the one to beat Derby day, but that is still conjecture on my part.  His works to me say that he hasn’t been wound up to his best potential yet and will be in his next.  Algorithm’s works are all breezes.  Is he at his best right now ready to uncork a real good one?  My Picks:  Discreet Dancer, Union Rags, Algorithms.

I’m calling Mr. Bowling to upset in the Risen Star.  He was a nice winner of his last when he took the outside route and defeated Z Dagger.  He obviously knows this track, has been working well, and is under the guidance of a salty trainer.  Also, his last work, best of 62 says he’s ready and that it will be now or never.  Z Dager is another that is on an upswing.  He broke his maiden on this track (sloppy-sealed).  He ran an uneven race in the LeComte, being up close, dropping back and then coming on like gang busters at the end.  He doesn’t appear to work all that hard in the morning though and I hope he’s saving it for the afternoon.  El Padrino is the one to beat but I think they will beat him today even though he desperately needs to add to his graded earnings.  My picks:  Mr. Blowing, Z Dager, El Padrino.

Like you, I think that Royal Delta will be short in the Sabin and am looking for Awesome Maria to bounce back and run a good one.  One that is intriguing at this time is Groupie Doll.  After running eighth in her maiden, she has never been worse than second except for one race, the Mrs. Revere when she was 7th, but only beaten 4 lengths and this while gaining three lengths in the stretch.  In her optional claiming win at GP she wired the field and ran a controlled pace early on, blitzing the second quarter in 22.42 to maintain control and then finishing her final quarter in 24.74 and easily held off Persuading.  The race I found intriguing was her last against Boys At Tosconova when she dueled throughout and gave a good account of herself before weakening at the end and finishing second.  My picks:  Groupie Doll, Awesome Maria, Royal Delta.

Union Rags !!! Unleash the BEAST !  Awesome will be awesome bet it all.

I think this weekend will be team Pletcher.  El Padrino will win the Risen Star with Shared property in second and Mr Bowling third. In the Fountain of Youth, Algorithms will prove he is the real deal and win with discreet dancer second Union Rags third with Casual trick 4th.

Baffert last week, Pletcher this week.

El Padrino

The Factor

Algorithms

Awesome Maria

I think that is what will happen but I would love to see Union Rags come out on top. Love The Factor too.

SHARED PROPERTY ......amoss.  should be in the money at nice price........DISCREET DANCER tough call over UR....believe it or not im picking the factor to run bad...i like MENSA HEAT and amazombie....ill bet mensa win place

Dray, Ok, now I am scared. We very rairly agree on anything, so it makes me uneasy when we do. I usually go the totally opposite way from you, but not this time. I think everyone know's I've been praising Union Rag's since last July when he broke his maiden at Delaware Park. People who are not Union Rags fan's will be after tomorrow and if not a fan, at least they will have to finally respect his ability. He has shown he can run from anywhere. He broke his maiden winning from mid pack and pouncing on the turn. He won the Saratoga special in the mud on the lead. He won the Champagne after getting boxed in, checked twice and flew once he made running room. Although he lost to Hansen in the Juvenile, I think he was the best horse in the race. Just my opinion.  I gotta say I got a pretty good giggle when Hansen went down in the Holy Bull. I doubted his form would hold very far into his three year old season. He is a very talented, and certainly very beautiful horse, but I think anything past 1 1/16 mile will be pushing it for him.

I also agree with Trackjack & Lazmannick in the respect that Union Rag's does not have to win. He has sufficiant earnings and is already in the Derby.  Matz will not peak his horse or have him leave it all on the track before it is necessary. If he wins, so much the better. He always was my 2012 derby horse. But, It's not too far fetched that he could go out there and just destroy the competition. I hear he is as physically impressive as Rock Hard Ten or Barbaro were at 3. I want to see Matz's other colt, Teeth of the Dog, run again.

I really like Larry Jone's, Mr Bowling in the Risen Star. Since, I have not seen El Padrino run, He is an unknown factor to me. I will probably be wrong but,I will stick with what I have seen. Interestingly enough, the other Jones horse, Mark Valeski was third behind Union Rag's the day Rag's broke his maiden.

Awesome Maria is probably more tuned up for the Sabin, but I wouldn't overlook any grade one caliber daughter of Empire Maker.

Coldfacts,

Tizanexpense could turn out to be just that.  Why not take my exacta advise and "optimize" your gain with El Padrino in the Risen Star?

Union Rags gets off to an amazing start to his colourful 3YO campaign in the FOY. The competition is formidable and he's coming back from a 3 months lay-off. How much more testing of a scenario can you get to launch a Triple Crown and HOTY campaign? Let us enjoy this.

Fort Loudon, piloted by Rajiv Maragh, is going to 'run his eyeballs out' and gut-out the exacta spot. Watch it.

Discreet Dancer and Algorithms are super talented colts (very high up on my Derby watch list) but I think that this tough race will expose their lack of foundation while putting some needed seasoning into them for the future.

On paper El Padrino is the ONLY standout relative to his or her competitors in all the races covered.In the FOY it looks chalky to me for the tri,but I will try to get a price in 2nd.Algo or any other entrants in any of these races is not as much a standout on paper as El Padrino he might be less than even money at post time.

I have a few problems with El Padrino in Norluns. Both lifetime wins were on sealed off tracks. All Lifetime starts were from post 3 or inside; today he's out in the 8 box. The long stretch at FG is a different kettle of fish than the short 1 1/16 stretch at GP. We will see. Interested in Afford; has the rail and since they fan out off the turn at FG, he could have a Wilkinson-like trip. (see 2011 Lecomte)

2:24: Well said about Risin Star (the horse).  What a great racehorse who was truly deserving of the Triple Crown.  If anyone hasn't watched those Triple Crown races that year, go to youtube and enjoy.

El Kabong

El Padrino:

Pulpit is an excellent sire but has not done what Tiznow has done in his relatively short stud career. Giant’s Causeway has no significant record as a broodmare sire.

Tizanexpense:

Tiznow HOY and two times BCC winner; sire of the Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed; Belmont winner Da’ Tara and Breeder Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Folklore. Deputy Minister is the broodmare sire of winners of the Preakness, Belmont and Breeders Cup Classic.

In a sport where past achievements do not guarantee futures success I would take my chances with Tizanexpense a colt that has won twice at the track. Add to this his bullet work of 1:00 flat in preparation for the race and superior pedigree; he is worth a bet at a ML of 20-1.

Revisit the Allowance race won by Discreet Dancer and focus on Neck n Neck. He was forced to change course from the rails when DD made his move for the lead and was impeded in deep stretch. He only got beat by 5L. There is another 16th to travel in the FOY and there will be more pace upfront. Revisit the Sam Davis where Neck n Neck finished 5th beaten 21/2L. He was last turning for home in hand and had to be taken 5-6 wile for his run. He was forced to change course twice and was still finishing best of all. If he is not impacted by the quick return he must have a chance to split the big three.

News Pending:

His last three starts have been at 9F. In his last race he closed from another zip code to finish second to the promising Exothermic. He was a narrow loser at a 1 1/16 on dirt at Belmont Park in a good time of 1:43.53. He shows a lot of pace in his dirt races and should be part of the leading pack. He has more foundation than most if not all in the race. Does he have the class of the big three? He recorded  1:48.88 in his victory at 9F on turf and was defeated in 1:48.56 at the same distance. He has shown enough to suggest he could upset the big three with improvement between races. He does have the foundation advantage.

Pedigree: His sire Harlan’s Holiday is a good stallion. He was the sire of Derby third place finisher Dennis Of Cork and multiple graded stakes winner Mendip whose next start will be in the Dubai WC. His dam line screams turf. Lear Fan is an excellent dam sire with success primarily on turf. He was dam sire of the brilliant Eclipse Award winning racer and now brilliant sire Kitten’s Joy. He was also dam sire of Johar who deadheated for the win in the 2003 John Deere Breeders’ Cup Turf. Mr. Romans almost pulled a shocker with Shackleford at 60-1 in the 2011 Fl Derby. In light of this I am forced to include this colt in my wagers.

Mr. Shandler, I'm sure Mr. Valeski appreciates you calling him "Mr", but if you're referring to his namesake horse trained by Mr. Jones, it's Mark Valeski...

KY VET,

I'll be comparing your tips/angles with those Carlos in Cali. We'll see who's the pro on here. Good luck pal.

I don't really expect Union Rags to win this weekend, seeing that he is facing some very tough horses and probably isn't fully cranked for this race, but I also think he's going to run very well. I've thought about picking Discreet Dancer to win the Fountain of Youth, but since he did miss some training a couple of weeks ago, I think I'll go with Algorithms and hope that his Bernardini blood will carry him around two turns.

Other selections:

Sabin Stakes: Awesome Maria

Risen Star Stakes: El Padrino

San Carlos Stakes: Amazombie

Rachel Alexandra Stakes: Summer Applause

In the seventh at Gulfstream on Sunday, I like Film Shot to upset Our Entourage.

****

Did anyone see Midnight Crooner break his maiden last Saturday at Golden Gate Fields? The son of War Chant looked great winning a one-mile maiden special weight by 7 1/2 lengths while closing his final quarter mile in :23.34 -- this after running his opening quarter in :23.65. Trained by Bob Baffert, Midnight Crooner strikes me as a potential contender for the Blue Grass Stakes in April. Does anyone have any thoughts?

-Keelerman

Jason:

7th race at Gulfstream Saturday--A 3-year-old optional claimer on turf, I like Our Entourage to handle a large field on turf. Look for him to show up in the Wood Memorial next.

He won, hope he takes a shot at running in the Wood Memorial.

Awesome Maria on her return was just superb. Wow. Just wow. Even with a bobble at the gate she won convincingly. I remember last year how upset i was that she was forced to take a break and so glad to see her come back so strong.

Nice ride Mr. Velazquez. Nice ride.

And I care as much about Royal Delta and feel she will fire in time after her layoff. To come in second after her well earned vacation was just fine.

Union Rags i won't quit on. Have said this all along.  Watched him win his first race and was blown away. I still feel that excitement about him. He is looking even more filled out and muscled up this year. Pulling for you U. R. and

company.

Just hope they all return to their stalls solid as rocks.

Thanks Jason, hope the winter is being kind to you, yours and the good people who post here.

Great returns for Nehro and Awesome Maria.  Royal Delta in the Dubai?  A little too optimistic but I've got to give Mott and Pletcher credit for racing their horses against the top tier competition in their division and not running and hiding like Shirreff did.

El Padrino won like a horse less than even money, that wanted to win without too much stress.$180,000 won by a nose, ask his jockey and I bet he says he had em all the way.Castellano will ride many more for Pletcher after that one.

I was more impressed with Mark Valesky and Awesome came through for me just like I knew she would.  Good call on Entourage Jason it led me to a easy 8.80 !!!

I was going to let this go but El Padrino really got a break.  Mark Valesky was the better horse and got pushed into the rail.  El came over not once but twice and it made the difference in the race.  The stewards should have done the right thing because contact was made.

Thank you DanC for recommending Risen Star on youtube.  I had no idea.  He was awesome.  I also clicked on Secretariat "A moment of Eternity".  At the end they show Big Red in slo mo and I can't remember a more awesome stride in a throughbred.  He was the most beautiful horse and his stride was poetry in motion.

El Padrino

The Factor

Algorithms

Awesome Maria

I think that is what will happen but I would love to see Union Rags come out on top. Love The Factor too.

Paula Higgins 25 Feb 2012 12:28 AM.

Good job, 3 out 4 so far,keep it going for 2-26.  

Our Entourage will go to either the Wood or Blue Grass.

Thank you tcc!!!! I appreciate the positive words. The FOY is a tough one. Any one of the three could do it. I would love to see Union Rags win and be wrong about this race. He is an incredible looking horse and my heart is with Matz. He is due for a really good season.

Sylvester, what is this with John Shirreffs? Give it a rest. I think you are absolutely OBSSESSED with John Shirreffs. Pretty soon we will see in the paper that you are stalking him. Sylvester, The Queen aka Zenyatta, would have inhaled them all. East coast, west coast, the story would have been the same. She ruled.

On another note, I was very glad to see Moody give Black Caviar a rest until Ascot. it was the right thing to do.

Draynay I agree, thought Mark Valeski ran lights out-- should have been put up--not for the bump in upper stretch, but for the hard lean in deep stretch, which, I believe, cost him the win...and Keelerman, I saw Midnight Crooner, and his race at Golden Gate was superb! He went out fast, relaxed a bit, then he powered away late--horses just don't do that on the Tapeta! He's a playback!

Coldfacts,

Outstanding. I was going over the FOY and I do agree with you on both of those picks. Tough to play as winners but value under for sure. I still like DD or AlGo for the win but I love Neck n Neck. He is going to add some equipment that will help him be more assertive so lets hope it works. Wilkes is putting it all on the line tomorrow, and the breaks are off. I like this colt to hit the board.

News Pending is a bit of a gamble. If his form transfers over to dirt again, he is dangerous. I have a great amount of respect for Exothermic and he ran very well to finish second "in a rush." Like the move to Kent D as well.

This race will reveal a little something about Exothermic and Battle Hardened, two colts I have my eye on right now.

I'm burning some late night oil and good Gin but  you took the conclusions right out of my notes. Good luck tomorrow. Those two are the only way to make a dime out of that race.

Draynay:

El Padrino won fair n square. A contact of that nature means nothing. It didn't take anything away from Mark V at all. Very nice stretch drive by both. All guts

I was a little disappointed when watching the Risen Star live that El Padrino wasn't able to get by Mark Valeski more easily, but then I saw that both closed the final sixteenth in 6 seconds flat.  Those two horses made the Risen Star a big step up from the Le Comte.

The final sixteenth of the Risen Star was impressive, but the overall final time was merely solid.  The time was one-fifth faster than older males ran in the Mineshaft, but that field was reduced by scratches, a tragic breakdown of Thiskyhasnolimit, and a slow pace.  The Risen Star was only two-fifths faster than the Rachel Alexandra, although to her credit, Summer Applause looks like a potential star in the 3 year old filly division.  

Beyer ended giving the Risen Star and Mineshaft both a 99, and the Rachel a 97.  That's an ok fig for older males, but good figs for 3 year olds.  Padrino and Valeski appear to be legit contenders.

Awesome Maria thoroughly whipped Royal Delta, but I question how much we can extrapolate from the result.  First, Awesome Maria was the "house" horse, running on her home track.  Second, she had a significant pace advantage, and the distance and track profile played strongly to her speed.  I thoroughly expected Awesome Maria to win.  However, I didn't expect her to completely dominate Royal Delta.

Awesome Maria deserves credit for running another solid race, but I think the margin of victory was more a reflection of how poorly Royal Delta ran than an indication that Awesome Maria turned in an historically great performance.  First, Royal Delta was all in to salvage 2nd, so it wasn't like the Beldame when she finished a clear 2nd to Havre de Grace.  Second, the time for the Sabin was only 3-5ths faster than the time posted by the 60-1 shot in the Davona Dale for 3 year old fillies.  Since the Davona Dale was given a 90 Beyer, I found the 100 given to Awesome Maria for the Sabin to be quite generous.  Finishing 8 lengths behind Awesome Maria, Royal Delta Beyered only in the 86-89 range.  She will clearly have to progress off this effort to be competitive in Dubai, and do so in a race that, over synthetic, is unlikely to have a pace shape(slow early, sprint for home) flattering to her more grinding style.

For the Fountain of Youth, give me the Pletchers over Union Rags.

Awesome Maria was pretty awesome, and Nehro too. And yeah Sylvester, I guess Shireffs was afraid to run Zenyatta in grade 3 races, since I don't recall her ever being in any. But give him some credit; he did put her in 2 BC Classics where the competition wasn't all that bad.

It appears that for The Factor to lose sprinting, there are 3 necessary conditions: 1) The Factor becomes involved in a speed duel; 2) he is stuck on the inside in the duel; 3) he is forced to run the opening quarter in sub-22, and opening half in sub-44.  

The Factor has won after having been down on the inside during a speed duel(in the Pat O'Brien vs. Smiling Tiger going 22+ and 44+), and won after dueling through a half in 43 and change(while on the outside in the San Vicente), but when all 3 conditions held in the Ancient Title, he faded to run 4th.

Since it is much less likely for the 1st and 3rd conditions to occur at 7 furlongs than 6 furlongs, it's not a surprise that The Factor has proven best at 7 furlongs.  At this distance, it's less likely that a horse is going to bounce out of the gate and roll through a 42 and change half like Frumious did in the 6 furlong Palos Verdes.

The Factor's San Carlos win was very similar to his win in the San Vicente last year.  In both races, The Factor had to deal with a Steve Asmussen horse early(a horse that would ultimately finish near the back of the pack), turn back a second-wave challenge from a classy rival(Amazombie in the San Carlos and Premier Pegasus in the San Vicente), and then hold off a desperate late charge from Sway Away.  Although victorious once again, the San Carlos represented, in my opinion, a slight regression for The Factor from the Malibu, much like the San Vicente was a slight regression from his track-record maiden win.  

On paper, The Factor held all the advantages in the San Carlos, and thus he was made a heavy favorite.  However, The Factor did not end up having nearly as easy a time as some predicted.  First, The Factor was not able to get away with an uncontested lead, as Rothko was sent along early to hound The Factor from the outside.  Thus, The Factor found himself along the inside of something close to a duel, although Rothko ultimately settled slightly off his flank.  Still, Rothko's presence forced The Factor to turn in a sub-22 second 2nd quarter, for a half in 44 and 2.  This was not a rapid pace for the Santa Anita speedway, but given the track appears to have slowed a few ticks the last 2 weeks, neither was it a walk in the park.  

On the far turn, Rothko bid farewell in a very disappointing outing(furthering Asmussen's woes out here), but then champion Amazombie and sharp allowance winner Canonize attacked The Factor, the former from the outside and the latter from the inside.  At this point it was clear The Factor had been softened up just enough by Rothko that he wasn't going to run away and hide like he did in the Malibu.

Amazombie, making his seasonal debut, was well positioned by Smith early, as he made sure to remain within reach of The Factor, fearing a slow pace.  As it turned out, the pace was probably more legit than Smith and Spawr had feared beforehand, and he likely could have dropped Amazombie a little further back.  Still, Amazombie had every chance to get up for the win, but The Factor was able to repulse his challenge.  Amazombie should be even sharper next out, and he likely will benefit returning to 6 furlongs where he should find stronger paces to run into.

Having disposed of Rothko, Canonize, and Amazombie, The Factor had to keep on finding because his old rival Sway Away was putting in another one his charismatic late charges.  Because Sway Away was so explosive closing on The Factor in the San Vicente last year, he became a buzz horse on the Triple Crown trail.  However, after fade jobs around 2 turns, it's clear Sway Away has found his home as a late running sprinter-miler(one turn).  

Given the pace was not blistering and that Rothko didn't fully hook The Factor, Sway Away did very well to run by Amazombie and Canonize and then threaten The Factor; his performance went against the track profile and the race flow.  Notice, however, that like in the San Vicente, The Factor was able to gallop out well ahead of Sway Away, reinforcing my opinion that Sway Away is as distance challenged as The Factor.      

In the end, the San Carlos was about The Factor once again demonstrating that he is one of the bigger talents in the game.  After falling off the radar following poor efforts in the Ancient Title and BC Dirt Mile, The Factor has brought his career record to 6 for 10, with 5 graded stakes wins(2 gr.1s, 3 gr.2s).  When half a horse's career starts result in graded stakes win, you know you are dealing with a serious talent.  I don't necessarilly think the BC Sprint, at 6 furlongs, will play to The Factor's strengths, but with gr.1s like the Carter, Triple Bend, Forego, and Pat O/Brien at 7 furlongs, The Factor obviously has the ability to enjoy a strong year.

I was completely impressed with Mark Valeski in the Risen Star. His gutsy determination against El Padrino really flattered Union Rag's maiden win. If this colt has improved that much since his third to Rag's..(I'll just leave that thought hang) Exciting day of racing yesterday and more of it today..First the Daytona 500..GO DALE JR, and then the FOY. Union Rag's, Ft Loudon, Algorithms and Discreet Dancer will be my choices.

Does anyone have an information about Theskyhasnolimit? All I am finding is broke down and vanned off.

"I was going to let this go but El Padrino really got a break.  Mark Valesky was the better horse and got pushed into the rail.  El came over not once but twice and it made the difference in the race.  The stewards should have done the right thing because contact was made." What race were you watching? Jones' horse came out as Pletcher's horse came in. Contact was mild at best. Even the jock after watching the replay, admitted there wasn't much there. Mark Valeski got a dream run tucked on the rail drafting behind the cheap speed. El Padrino was best today.  

Jason:  nice calls with the Risen Star tri box from THS and with Summer Applause, Our Entourage  Also nice calls to -Keelerman, Paula Higgins for your picks.

DanC and 2:24: Thanks for reminding me about the TC Trail of 1988.  Risen Star was the best, got stopped in the Derby at least 3 times.  Also, watch the Preakness; that memorable rodeo ride by Pat Day on Forty-Niner, herding Winning Colors from the get-go softening her up for Risen Star.

Draynay:  Mark Valeski came out first on the winner, then the two brushed a couple of times to the wire.  No harm, no foul, it's called race riding.  The stewards did the right thing.

I'm sorry, but El Padrino should have been named El Tortuga.

Here To Win looked great yesterday. With her and Aqsaam, McLaughlin has a sweet pair of turf mares. Keertana ran well, just a bit slower than she was 2 years ago.

Sway Away made a strong run at The Factor and will turn the tables next time.

I agree with everyone who is laughing over the weight assignment for the weakest HOY ever. Crying over 122 pounds is a complete joke. Enjoy the HOY trophy, because 2012 will be much tougher for Havre de Grace to take home any trophies.

Gulfstream Sunday:

7- Preach Tome Daddy

8- Unbridled Fire

9- Freshman Dorm

10- Simmard

11- Union Rags

Welcome back ColdFacts.

Yeah, maybe she should have hid in California all year instead.

Jason Shandler 24 Feb 2012 3:20 PM

Shw won HOY, get over it!!

 Jason, good call on that colt that ran second in the Risen Star.  I haven't seen the replay yet but he clearly ran big.  You called it and yes, it's too bad he was coupled with the Le Compte winner.  I didn't see that one coming.

In the 1st race at FG, LA-bred n1x horses went 6f in 21.44, 44.88 and 1:09.83. Winner went gate to wire.

The Risen Star went in 24.44, 48.72, 1:13.15, 1:36.88 and 1:42.96. They went slow early and sprinted home. The first 4 horses stayed in the first 4 all the way around, just traded positions. Any horse who prefers to come from off the pace was dead meat after that nearly 1:14 6f. A race that really told us little to nothing about Derby potential.

Coldfacts

"El Kabong

El Padrino:

Pulpit is an excellent sire but has not done what Tiznow has done in his relatively short stud career."

Lets examine the facts.

Although Tiznow is 3 years behind Pulpit, he has been very busy in shed row and good on a brother.

Registered Foals:  Tiznow 740 Pulpit 738

Stakes Winners:    Tiznow 39    Pulpit 60

Graded Stakes:     Tiznow 22    Pulpit 35,

Update, make that 36 graded stakes winners for Pulpit. Giddy up Pulpit.

wow, tough break for Algorithms, I hope he recovers nicely and resumes on the TC trail.  Today at Gulfstream I like #3 Newsdad in the Mac Diarmida Stakes and I also like #4 Casual Trick in the FOY Stakes.  

Too bad about Algorithmns, I was looking forward to seeing how the big three in this race matched up. I still like DD, but wouldn't be surprised to see UR prevail. I think CT could be there too.

Criminal Type----I was impressed with Mark Valeski, too. He and El Padrino were able to simulate some of the bumping race riding that will no doubt be a part of the Derby itself.

Thiskyhasnolimit was taken to LSU (Louisiana State) for surgery according to HRN.

i like csaba in the FOY box with union rags.

Very upset the Algorithms has a popped splint. Hope he makes it back soon. O.k. my next pick is Discreet Dancer for the FOY. But again, if Union Rags wins, I will be thrilled. I think we aren't really going to have a clue about the Kentucky Derby, until the Florida Derby, unless one of these two guys runs away with it today.

Draynay:  Mark Valeski came out first on the winner, then the two brushed a couple of times to the wire.  No harm, no foul, it's called race riding.  The stewards did the right thing.

trackjack 26 Feb 2012 7:10 AM.

Draynay most likely needed M.V. on top to collect on his win wager.

He also seems to notice horses only after JASON has mentioned them.

Upset in the FOY, (maybe)???

I was shocked, really, when Seattle Slew won the Eclipse over Exceller, in 1978. Exceller, I believe, won 8 races, 7 Gr 1's....Slew won 5 races, one was at Suffolk/another was an alw race--but they gave it to the Great Seattle Slew, because in his final race, he finished 2nd to Exceller, but it was an iconic 2nd place finish--it defined his greatness like no victory could---fast forward to 2010, 32 years later, and it happened again! She didn't win, but she ran her greatest race, The Mare never let anyone down, including the voters, who were able to claim her, once and for all, Horse Of The Year! I, too, had openly wished for a New York campaign, I said at the time Saratoga, for that Mare, was more important, historically, than Breeders Cup--but the unbeaten streak had taken a life of it's own--much pressure to keep her unbeaten for the Breeders Cup! Why risk a one turn 1 1/4, or 1 1/8 at Saratoga? They showed up to the big dance, and danced into history! An iconic horse, an iconic 2nd--and (hopefully) I'll never get over it!

Mark Valeski sat right behind the slow pace and had every right to prevail once the cheap speed faded.He wasn't letting-up down the stretch judging by the quick final split. I thought he ran big,it being his first try around 2-turns. A solid race by both and a very determined win by El Padrino who naturally carries a lot of conditioning. He should only improve off this as he'll gradually get race-shape ready for the Derby.

In his last 2 races,El Padrino has won closing into solid fractions when running down a loose on the lead Take Charge Indy and also took the Risen Star while closing into slow fractions. That's the mark of a solid racehorse who runs his own race regardless of the pace situation.Also,he's run big on 5 different tracks and we know he acts well on off tracks... just in case.

I hit that $49 tri but I thought the entry mate would get up for the place, not Valeski.Oh well,I'll take it x20 any day of the week.

It really sucks to lose probably one of the top 3 derby prospects.  It specially sucks as he's my powerhorse for RTTR lol.  Anyway, I'm left with Casual Trick for FOY (I thought Algo had it in the bag so I didn't put anyone else) and hoping there'll be enough speed for him to close on.  Nakatani flying over there to ride him is a positive.   I'm thinking Union Rags will take the FOY with Casual Trick, Fort Loudon for the exacta bets then Discreet Dancer, Neck N'neck, Csaba to complete my trifecta

Had never watched Risen Star's Preakness and Belmont Stakes Races. How fitting to his sire and his dam Ribbon, don't forget her, that he would run the second fastest Belmont to his papa Secretariat. Breathtaking for sure. Thanks for the mention DanC.

Then i went back and watched The Kentucky Derby of 1988 to see if Risen Star participated and where he was. He did, came in third. I note that he died in 1998 on March 13, just 13 years young. The good do indeed die young.

Not just a little nostalgia to those of us over 65+, but a lot in

some of the You Tubes of racing, like the 1938 race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral in its entirety. That was 74 years ago.

And i never realized Winning Colors was a Gray. Live and learn.

Day Faves yesterday, of course

Awesome Maria, Yara at 64-1, that was something, i always pull for the longest shot especially with odds that high. And of course El Padrino showed he wanted that race.

Some nice surprises in all of the races. But no surprise to my buddy The Factor winning and contrary to comments by KY VET, he won, hope you didn't choke on your words about him. Coldfacts was right and you impuned his integrity on that one and KY VET you were wrong not him. I am loyal to a fault, The Factor and the dudes and my buds.

Makes no never mind to me who their trainers are, the horses run the races and not the trainers. It is a horse race, not a trainer race. And you know, some great horses can make any trainer look good.

Okay Zorro, don't be shy, i am waiting for you to hook horns with KY VET. I am sure there are plenty on here who qualify to referee.

And i still would like Union Rags to win today. I said that before Algorithyms was scratched and I hope that issue is not serious.

I am now posting this at 4:17 pm, cst.

But my hopes and wishes are with

Algorithyms that he heals quickly.

Thanks Jason, your articles have been great.

ALGORITHMS - I hope i spelled his

name correctly. Please pardon me if i didn't. Linda

Well, I guess that settles that. In hand and not a touch of the whip...Way to go Union Rags !  Im thinking Javier is kicking himself in the ass right now.

Well said Matthew W! Thank you for the update Karen In Texas regarding Thiskyhasnolimit.

So much for Discreet Dancer.  He needs some racing foundation as he had absolutely nothing when challenged and might be best suited for the Met Mile.

I agree with Jason that if Union Rags wins this race off the layoff and without being fully cranked he is the real deal.  In spite of the expected Draynay BS that is sure to come, this guy is the real deal and IMO is definitely the early Derby Favorite.  Excellent race and in a very good time.

What do you call 'Beauty and the Beast' rolled up into one? Union Rags!!!(LOL)

We are watching history unfold here folks ...its been thirty four years ...and it will be well worth the wait with this magnificent specimen of a racehorse ...absolutely heaven-sent. Please don't cry for Javier Castellano. More anon.

Draynay i don't think they are gonna be able to shut you up this year, Union Rags sure did his best Big Brown impersonation. WOW... and Matz said he was father along mentally than Barbaro was....Man i just wish i had put more on him in the futures 8-1 is like stealin.....

Solid victory by Union Rags,although the injury to Algorithms took the luster out of the race. Pretty much the same type of results we seen in the Risen Star where the winner sat off the slow splits then came home quickly. The only difference was El Padrino had to dig in for the win and Union Rags won with ease but that was because Mark Valeski wasn't stopping and the field UR beat is suspect. I wonder what he'll beyer because those were some slow splits they set for Gulfstream Park. Union Rags look like a legitimate Derby Contender but I'm telling you.. that Dixie Union on top will be a hindrance once he goes 9f+.

Discreet Dancer had no excuses.He settled well and didn't go nearly as fast as he did previously. I thought he should've hung-on better than that but his pedigree showed the final 16th. His half brother was a pure sprinter and with Discreet Cat on top,expect him to follow in his sibling's footsteps, like I said he would from day one... Isn't that right Ranagulzion?

Zito should take Casual Trick out of the TC Trail and I believe he will.Somethings not right with him,IMO.

Just got home from Gulfstream,Union Rags is a beautiful race horse.

He won for fun,Discreet Dance is a miler.

I look for the Fl Derby to come up weak with horses going different ways to get money,this is a very good colt.

Martz knows how to get them ready as well

I bet it all on Awesome and she came through and for the first time in my life I borrowed money at the track to place a even bigger bet on Union Rags when 6 to 5 was placed on the board.  There will be a lot of horses that will not be showing up to the Florida Derby.  Union Rags is a monster and if healthy in May is your Derby winner.  He is just much further along than any other horse and I don't believe another will be good enough in 65 days to challenge him.  El Padrino is not a Derby threat.  Mark was the better horse and was robbed a victory.  I saw the head on 10 times and El came over twice forcing Mark to the rail.  Nehro is back !  Do I know my horses or what ?

Wow, Union Rags did it! Congratulations to Michael Matz and the owners. Very, very happy for Michael Matz. So the Florida Derby will be interesting. I wonder if it is possible for Algorithms to make the Florida Derby?

El Padrino should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Union Rags.

To all of you who touted Union Rags, CONGRATULATIONS!  He made a believer out of me with that performance today.  Michael Matz admitted he was not fully cranked, yet he demolished the field, closing into a workout pace winning off much the best while only being shown the wip.

Discreet Dancer hit his wall of endurance.  Javier will have other good mounts, but talk about the ups and downs of racing, getting off Union Rags to get on the probable favorite, getting scratched and watching the race from the jocks room.  I hope Algorithms can come back safe and sound.

I knew it.  Because Awesome Maria and Union Rags win at odds of even money and lower this weekend we get to listen to the third string substitute quarterback from LeAnn Rimes College for the next few weeks, or at least until the Florida Derby.  Please keep it down to a dull roar Draynay.

I do agree with you, draynay, at least after this weekend's preps.

Still hope Secretariat isnt too far away in Union Rags's pedigree.  But after today, looks like he will get the extra quarter mile in the Derby if he stays healthy.  This year my seat is just opposite the quarter pole.

First of all, I was told that Union Rags had grown and matured but I really was not expecting the horse I saw in the paddock. I said omfg, he is enormous. It was also apparent that he has grown mentally as well. He ran arrow straight down the stretch with no ducking or weaving. A thing of beauty to those of us concerned about that quirk. I still cant get over how easily he won.

Dray, I am as excited and enthusiastic as you are about Union Rags, but please lets not make this a snarking snipping derby trail. I happen to think El Padrino is a very nice horse. Is he as good as Rags? Probably not, but lets not start bashing the horses. Remember they are still all VERY young. El Padrino did well yesterday. So what, he and Mark Valeski traded a little paint. There was no reason to take the winner down. Its a long way to Churchill yet.

I try really hard not to get Triple Crown fever because I hate being dissapointed, but If Union Rags was only 80% today and won with a hand ride in decent time. Whats he going to be like in 8 weeks when he is 100 % ?  

Fountain of Youth wasn't as exciting as hoped, nice to see Union Rags looking so good. Things not looking so great for Pletcher anymore? El Padrino looked ok but doesn't come close to Union Rags; at this point we haven't seen the horse that can beat Rags in the

Derby.

Coldfacts,

Your assessment of News Pending wa spot on. Good job.

Forgive me, but how much did Tizanexpense cost you Bro? (LOL)

KY VET,

You silence as a Pro is deafening (LOL).

Here's a little tip for you Pro: Horses like The Factor are not raced like claimers or allowance types therefore you cannot handicap them as such. Baffert is campaigning this one for a championship season therefore don't count on him losing anytime soon.

Well, we do have a clear Derby fave with Union rags.  Good for him, his connections, his fans, and frankly the entire industry.  We've been waiting for a really top 2 year old to head to Louisville with a ton of momentum.

Union Rags has the class, the foundation, the size, the stride, the talent, and now we see he took another step forward in his development in the critical period from 2 to 3.  

Alot of people complimented Creative Cause for his comeback effort in the San Vicente, but Union Rags' Fountain of Youth is what I think of when I use the phrase "good comeback"; Union Rags not only got in a solid race for foundation, but he won easy and displayed a brilliance that I didn't see from Creative Cause.  

Now for some tempered perspective.  I agree with alot of what Carlos from Cali wrote.  With the scratch of Algorithms, we really must ask who Union Rags was beating in the FoY.  Discreet Dancer, we have now found out, is a miler whose talent was likely overrated after 2 perfect trip one-turn races.  After Discreet Dancer, there was not another leading contender in the field.  In all truth, a leading Derby contender probably should beat that FoY field by 4 lengths.

How about the time?  Well, like the Risen Star, the FoY featured a very moderate pace.  Union Rags came home an impressive final 5-16ths in 30 and change, stopping the timer in 1:42 and 3.  Gulfstream didn't do figure makers any favors by not carding another two-turn maintrack race besides the FoY, so it's hard to get an idea of the track variant.  My best guess is that the Gulfstream track today was about the same as it was yesterday when there were two stakes run at 8.5 furlongs.  

Union Rags ran 1-5th faster than Awesome Maria and 4-5ths faster than the Davona Dale winner.  Since Awesome Maria earned a 100 beyer, I expect a 102 for Union Rags.  That's a good fig, especially for a seasonal debut, but is not a monster fig by historical standards, and merely equals what Secret Circle ran in the Southwest.  

One would have to imagine that Union Rags is going to face much quicker pace scenarios in the near future.  Again, now knowing Discreet Dancer is a Derby pretender, I believe Union Rags received a dream trip in the FoY, sitting to the outside of overmatched speed, before then getting the jump on seriously disadvantaged late runners.  Union Rags has shown excellent versatility, so he should be able to adapt to most pace scenarios, but when he was confronted with a quicker pace in the Breeders Cup, some of the starch was taken from his late kick.  And that brings me to my biggest reservation about Union Rags, distance.

Based on the Champagne and FoY, I can totally understand why supporters of Union Rags would have total confidence in his ability to get 10 furlongs+.  But, then there is the BC Juvenile, when his weaving was at least partially attributable to fatigue.  

And there is his pedigree.  Dixie Union was an outstanding horse who won a gr.1 at 9 furlongs(Haskell), but he was well beaten running 10 furlongs in the Travers has hasn't built a reputation of being a big stamina influence.  Thus, I totally understand those skeptical of Union Rags' pedigree.  Personally, I see no problems for Union Rags at 9 furlongs, and think he stands a solid chance at 10 furlongs, although I'm not totally sold.  But for those already handing the Derby and Preakness to him, I have serious doubts about 12 furlongs.  But then again, I didn't think early in 2005 that Afleet Alex would be able to run his final quarter in 24 seconds flat to win the 12 furlong Belmont by 7.  

There is still alot of road left to go before we get to Churchill.  But, the FoY was certainly a splendid start for a very popular contender and gave us a clear #1 seed.    

That would be La Tortuga, manzana agria o verde.

Your bitterness is blinding. Let it go and just enjoy the horse no matter who trains him. El Padrino got alot out of that race. Deny all you will, but he will be a factor and who knows, he may be headed back to Florida pending Algorithms condition.

Here comes the "Union Rags" is your derby winner from Draynay.  As impressive as that race was visually, I have to take into acct who ran in the race.  Discreet Dancer was his only threat after Algorithms scratched and DD is obviously a miler and that's why I didn't really like him for this race.  Has anyone heard of News Pending before this race ?  I'll wait for UR's next race before I put him on top.  I myself think he might be the real deal but I have to check myself because the Kentucky Derby is going to be full of good horses and it's 10F so I'm not dumb enough to crown him the derby winner just yet.  

I want to know what the heck Nakatani was doing pushing Casual Trick up DD's behind ??  The horse is a closer, I'm not sure what made him think he go with DD.

I hope they don't try and push treating Algorithms to make the derby. He's a fine colt and I think he can wait for the Belmont.

what we learned from the foy is that discrete dancer is no hansen.  there are a lot of derby top 10-12-20s with egg on their face, by touting DD over hansen.

the upside of rags' win today is that he won giving the entire field 6 lbs, and beat a race bias that has had low weights winning it for the last 5 years.

the down side is that the race was pretty slow--rags won't see fractions like these in the ky derby.

for perspective, hansen, even after having hit the wall completely in the holy bull, would still have beaten rags by a nose based on the times of his holy bull mile and on rags' foy mile split, and algorithms would still have beaten both by 5 lengths based on his time in the holy bull. yet rag's didn't have the excuse of having just run 22, 21, 24 after a bad start.

if you don't like that comparison, there's the 1 mile allowance race from earlier in the day that was almost a full second faster than the foy...

from today's race, there is no way to know how rags would fare when forced to keep up with 22, 21, 24...hansen's speed is pretty tricky--you can't give him too much of a lead, because you'll never catch him, but you can't go with him, because he might just be running at suicidal pace again that could kill your chances too (after the holy bull, pretty much everyone is going be wary about being too close to his lead in case he is going balls out again), but 24s won't kill hansen, like they did DD, i doubt even 23.5's would kill him...

but anywho, given the weight rags' was carrying (122), his effort was much better than el padrino's (116), and at this point i would take him over el padrino.

algorithms will almost certainly miss the fl derby. he might make the wood, although the ark derby is probably more likely...but would pletcher opt to run him there, so close to the ky derby? he tends to like long lay offs before big races. maybe he just trains him up to the derby off the holy bull...

the fl derby this year will be a dud. eveyone worth watching will go elsewhere now for sure. it'll just be rags v the nobodies again...

Wondering why anyone says the trainer doesn't run the race, the horse does. On the surface this is a true statement but is so simplistic in its logic as to negate any common sense as to the importance of training. If horses like Algorithms, year after year, are falling off the Derby trail due to injuries, we can say that the breed is getting weaker; or is it just trainers who don't know how to work with a developing, young, growing horse that needs special training schedules so they don't break down so often. Training isn't everything, I would agree with this statement, and a good horse can make even an average trainer look good sometimes, but a bad trainer can make a good horse look bad more so than not. Why is it then that Discreet Dancer runs so poorly in the Fountain of Youth, and Algorithmns doesn't run at all? I put the blame squarely on the trainer. Pletcher continues in the shoes of his mentor, and will only produce winners when he gets that rare , young, developing, and talented horse that can overcome the poor training techniques employed by its trainer.

Union Rags' FoY Beyer: 95

I don't quite follow the Beyers from Gulfstream this weekend.  Awesome Maria runs 142 and 4 and gets a 100 Beyer.  The Davona Dale goes just 3-5ths slower yet receives a 90 Beyer (should have been just 5-6 points lower, or Awesome Maria should have received a 95 or 96).  Granted it was a different day, but Union Rags runs a tick faster than Awesome Maria and receives a Beyer 5 points lower?

But the 95 fig probably fits with past pars for the FoY field, and confirms my initial opinion that there likely wasn't much behind Union Rags.  Without Algorithms, and with Discreet Dancer running a distance beyond his capacity, the FoY basically featured a bunch of horses used to running Beyers in the low to mid 80s.

Secret Circle and El Padrino were not as visually impressive in their recent preps as Union Rags, but that was largely because unhearlded horses like Scatman and Mark Valeski ran huge races to make the margin of victory for the former two horses much closer; none of Union Rags' rivals in the FoY ran like Scatman or Mark Valeski.

UR won like it was a trial race with nothing on the line, but Algo was scratched.His odds will drop further on derby futures and the 3rd installment will be on Florida Derby weekend so he will be the 2nd choice after the field.After that win I dont think the Florida Derby field will reach double figures.He is very talented but got a very clean trip against a depleted field, favorite Discreet Dancer who was picked by the blogmaster was revealed to be a pretender.On paper there is no doubt as of now with his body of work, UR is number one.Draynay good pick but eventhough you raised your bet from a measly 200 to 1000 your still 900 down with this blogs play money bets.Minus 2000 in the classic, in the FOY you bet 1000 to win and 100 on the exacta box or key with Discreet Dancer,so 500 times 4.40 is 2200 and you have bet 3100 you are down 900,I told you you should have bet 3000 of your fantasy money on UR.There were no picks made on this blog that revealed anything that left the gate at double figures for a single bet unless you had the 6 News Pending 2nd in the FOY.

So, this is how it's going to be, huh ? The doubters making excuses for the horses that Union Rag's beat in the Fountain of Youth ? Well, go right ahead. I for one believe that this horse is very special. I believe he can get a mile and a quarter without too much pressure, if any. Union Rag's may be a once in a lifetime horse, or to those of us old enough to have seen Secretariat, a twice in a lifetime horse. Something he will eventually proves to you doubters. I can't wait to see what Steve has to say about him in Derby Dozen.

I honestly don't think Algorithm's would have made much difference. The horse I worry most about right now is Out of Bounds, and only because of Gomez's comments yesterday about him. He said OOB is push button, like Union Rag's.  

Ranagulzion, I know your thoughts on him lean in the same direction as mine..all I can say is YEAH!  I think Union Rag's is on a mission.

Papillion the highweight broke the losing streak and won the FOY,instead of coming in the money.But for low weight players such as yourself in the last 11 years only in 2009 when Quality Road won has a low weight won the race.

Hey Jason and Tom Lamarra you guys have picked pretty well thus far with the play money on The Handicappers Show,but you both threw in a clunker and got a bunch of followers on this blog with Discreet Dancer.I heard the rumor that the next race for DD will be the Timely Writer.

Union On The Rags will not win the KY Derby!! I was not impressed at his performance over a fast track Sunday. Every and I mean every other race on dirt was run faster!! He beat absolutely nothing, reminds me of RA a few years back when she would win by 4 or more against nobody but when she went against mediocre boys or older could barely handle them so they packed her away and skipped the Breeders Cup knowing she'd have been embarrased there. If horses like Algorithms keep falling maybe he'll have a chance like Big Brown who won a Derby against nothing and eventually got whipped by an entire field of Allw. and Mdns. in the Belmont.

16K Starter Allw. horses ran a faster mile, measley 8K Claimers ran 5 lengths faster 6f!!!!, mere MDN Claimers ran 9 lengths faster 6f!!!!,Opt. Claimers ran 16 lengths faster 7f!!!!, MDN SPWT horses ran 14 lengths faster 7f as well!!!! The slowest race on the card through a mile was run by Union on the Rags!! Those Opt. Claimers would have had to crawl home in 25.8 for Rags to catch them at 1 1/16.    

Excited about the triple crown trail after Union Rags' performance.  That is how a superior race horse is supposed to deal with over-matched opponents even if he is only cranked to 80%.  Was really impressed with his professionalism.

Also impressed with both El Padrino and Marl Valeski.  I said it earlier, betting on a live horse that Rosie is riding is easy money.  Male or female, she is a money jockey and in my opinion one of the top 10 riders out there.

Couldn't disagree with Castellano's business decision at the time it was made.  Still, he's got to be kicking himself.  Think Julien is a better fit for UR anyway.  This might be the rare time when the Draynay hype machine is right on.

Top 5 right now:

Union Rags

Out of Bounds

El Padrino

Mark Valeski

Something from Baffert

Realizing that many here are simply interested in the funds they can put in their pockets from a lucky pick in a race. But i would like to suggest that there is always a story to something that attracts us.

To that end, i would direct your attention to a story about how Union Rags came to be. Esther Marr of Bloodhorse.com wrote a wonderful piece about Phyllis Wyeth  his breeder October 13, 2011. And  how Ms. Wyeth came to sell him at the suggestion of her accountant and how she realized she had sold something special and with her woman's intuition, set out to buy him back for double what she sold him for.

Reason for selling him, she had too many horses and he was lazy, were a couple of the reasons.

i think you would enjoy the article if you like Union Rags. It is his beginning and his owner/breeder that attracted me in the first place the first time i watched him win last year.

Ms. Wyeth, congratulations on following your personal thoughts about a very talented horse. I am

happy for you and i know he has brought you much joy in his successes. And i think Michael Matz is the perfect personality for Union Rags. And a jockey with a French name, somehow it all worked and with a hand ride to boot.

It is early, so much can happen so quickly. But his story is good for the sport.

And the other race i enjoyed was the 10th race at Gulf Stream, some names from the past like Mambo Meister, Simmard and Musketier the latter both trained by a wonderful gentleman Roger Attfield won a first and a third place in their race. Last mentioned by the track announcer, Musketier was 10 lengths behind the leader. Then quick as sand, he was 3rd behind, the leader and stablemate, Simmard. That was great. No spring chickens either Musketier or Simmard. Just a nice turf race.

Read Jason's article on him. For Musketier, 45 starts, 10 years old and "go ahead and race him say his owners, if he is happy," and that is as it should be for all of them. Simmard 7 years old and Musketier 10 reminded me of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, train together, stay together.  

I hope Thisskyhasnolimit and Algorithms come thru their injuries in good shape. I am hoping for the best for them.

A nice day of racing at all tracks. And Thanks Jason.    

Carlos, I heard Zito say (on streaming, not TV, and after I had already bet on him!) that Casual Trick bled in his previous race, about a month ago. It is to my mind unconscionable that Zito was bringing him back to race after such a short period. Horses that bleed need time off from exercise to allow their lung membranes to heal, a couple of months I would think. I expect he bled again, since his lungs hadn't had a chance to completely heal. This is what comes of thinking that Lasix takes care of everything to do with bleeding.

Gun Bow, I agree that superior talent and class can carry a horse who is essentially a super-miler (best distance, 8-9f), like Northern Dancer or Dr. Fager, to top class wins at 10f but not at 12f. Afleet Alex had the advantage of a trainer whose experience in 3-Day eventing taught him how to have a horse truly fit, when none of his opponents was. AA was out of his stall twice a day for conditioning as well as speed training, remember?

My exact words down the stretch yesterday, "it's over and Union Rags is only galloping". Anyone who voted for Hansen should now understand why Union Rags was the real 2 year old champion. As brilliant as Union Rags looked yesterday, I still have my eye on Out of Bounds and Alpha when the Derby comes around.

Castellano might need a tissue to wipe up his tears after listening to his agent. Maybe next time he will listen to the horse and not be swayed by dollar signs. So much for Rags to Pletcher riches.

Ranagulzion,

It looks like your dream trainer Pletcher is not so hot at the moment. So far I have counted 23 prep races and Pletcher has only 3 wins. Your Discreet Dancer had zero fight in him yesterday. And you claimed him to be the best of the Pletcher regime. And please do not jinx Union Rags with your yearly triple crown winner talk. The FOY brought back memories of the late great Barbaro.

Lazmannick,

Discreet Dancer has no business even being considered for such a classy race like the Met Mile. He needs a vacation and then back to the allowance ranks.

Casual Trick was equally laughable losing by 37 lengths on a fast track. And that was after Zito said he did not handle the mud when he lost by 30 lengths.

Sway Away will win a Grade I race this year and finally get some respect.

Does anyone know if Gomez will be back riding by this weekend?

Watch out for Ultimate Eagle in the Big Cap, he is much sharper than most people think. I'll be using him in straight exactas over Redding Colliery, Ron The Greek, and Game On Dude.

I forgot to mention how good Arm Force looked yesterday with first time blinkers. This horse could make some noise down the road, another beautiful Tiznow colt to keep an eye on.

Gunbow's greatest reservation about Union Rags - the possible distance limitation - which many of us shared Mary tried to address in her blog comments in Jason's recent column analyzing Castellano's decision to bail on Union Rags and ride Pletcher's Algorithm instead. Mary pointed to the tail side of Union Rag's pedigree and maintained there was breeding for distance on the dam side, expressing little doubt about the colts' ability to route the classic  distances and even drawing a parallel to similar comments made about Secretariat before the Triple Crown.  Add to that Jerry's Bailey comments about how Union Rags had impressively filled out over the winter between his two year old and 3 year old year while Hansen had not seems to bode well for the colt"s Triple Crown chances if he can stay healthy.  He went by Discreet Dancer easily in a hand ride and was never more than shown the stick by Leparoux who said he thought the colt was not yet 100% as Matz was trying to keep him from peaking. The fact that the fractions weren't that fast and Discreet Dancer was all not used up when Union Rags blew by him makes the win all the more impressive. Maybe we have in the makings the best chance at a Triple Crown winner since Eskendreya.

Union Rags = Big Brown.....Derby odds for Union Rags 9 to 5.

Draynay, I'm on the Union Rags bandwagon as well, and have been since his maiden win.

Derblin, Secretariat is up close in Union Rags pedigree.  His dam's sire Gone West is out of a Secretariat mare.  Perfect.

I will say this, I'm getting a bit weary of hearing about whether Union Rags can go the distance since he is by Dixie Union.  After all Union Rags does have a dam, which is where you will find the stamina.  I can't for the life of me understand why people are so obsessed with the sire, without any mention of the mare.  IMO the mare is just as, or even more so, important as the sire.    

Does anyone know what Union Rags stride angle is?

"I bet it all on Awesome and she came through and for the first time in my life I borrowed money at the track to place a even bigger bet on Union Rags when 6 to 5 was placed on the board."

'Nehro is back !  Do I know my horses or what ?"

Draynay 26 Feb 2012 6:47 PM  

The asnswer is no, not really. You weren't on Nehro last year UNTIL he proved himself and went to the Derby as one of the top picks. As for Awesome Maria, another typical draynay pick, everyone one and their mothers had her to win at 4/5.

I'm calling BS on the borrowing money while at the track to bet on another horse who everyone loves and won at 6/5(Union Rags).

The race went off at 5:34 and you posted an hour later? Considering you say you were at the track you could not have made it home in time to post that soon. Everyone here knows that after they made the race official you would have spent at least an hour or three telling the other patrons what a great handicapper you were for having picked a 6/5 who actually won. That leaves no time to get to the windows and wait in line to cash, to your moped, out of the parking lot, through traffic (even if you did take the sidewalks to save time)to get home, spend the next hour telling your wife what a great handicapper you are for picking a 6/5 shot that actually won, yapping at flopsy, mopsy, and whatever the other wiener dogs name is telling them what a great handicapper you are for picking a 6/5 who actually won, then waiting for your dial-up connection to connect, waiting while your log-in connects, waiting for your internet service to connect, waiting for the Bloodhorse site to connect, waiting looking up your log-in and id since your memory is non-existent, waiting for the Triple Crown Blog to connect, waiting for spell check to correct all your errors, then finally posting your message. As you have said many times before, time does not lie. BS on being at the track and betting more and more on what migh thave been the easiest pick of the day once Algorithms went down and making it home in time to post at 6:47!!      

Gunbow

I read where you predicted that Union rags would possibly get a Beyer around 102 for the FOY, based on the Saturday races.  He did in fact receive a 95 (Awesome Maria got a 100).  Without other two-turn races on dirt to compare to, as you indicated it kind of put the Beyer people in a spot.  Union Rags’ time (1.42.68) was slightly off Endorsements time for the same distance in an optional claimer run on Feb. 1 (1.42.35).  For that Endorsement received a 97 Beyer.  Another 8.5F race for a high priced Optional Claimers that day was run 2 and a half seconds slower.  (I don’t know what Beyer was assigned).  I thought that Union Rags’ Beyer should have been a little higher also.  It’s possible that without incomplete data to make his comparisons Beyer reverted back to the Endorsement race.

Draynot what a shame you're not me.  I had enough time to leave Beulah Park and stop by the Hollywood Casino on the west side and still made it home in 25 minutes.  I will have you know I picked 6 winners at Gulfstream on Sunday I was on FIRE.  By the way Draynot EVERYONE at Beulah ALREADY knows what a great handicapper I am.  Many around the world now know.  When Vegas sets the odds they call me first.  I have told everyone Union Rags is a monster and now everyone has witnessed my genius.  They don't call me the Derby Nostradomus for nothing you know. 2:24 remember when it comes to handicapping I know everything.

Forbidden Apple

Discreet Dancer was pointing towards a classy race, the Derby.  It doesn’t look like that race will work out, but the Met Mile, which might be more within his capabilities and is a month later, just might.  It’s possible that Discreet Dancer needs a rest and maybe not.  He showed absolutely nothing on Sunday IMO.  Maybe he bounced.  Maybe there is something internally wrong.  Maybe he really isn’t all that potentially good.  Maybe what he really needs is to be put back on the work tab and work towards building a foundation and more stamina.  To put him in the barn for awhile is part of what’s wrong with racing today.  Lightly race, put tail between legs and hide, look for easy spots.  He’s had three lifetime races, a short sprint, a mile that he won so ridiculously easy without much of a challenge and the FOY.  I say keep him going and point towards an important G1 race like the Met Mile and if he’s ready for that race then enter him and if not then prepare him for a race late on like The King Bishop.  JMO.

Nehro my Derby pick last year looked great and should be the older horse to beat.  A rematch vs. Animal Kingdom is long overdue.  Game On Dude will win meaningless races in California all year long hiding from real competition like another horse did a few years ago only to get whipped in the Classic.  History has a way of repeating itself.

Mary, I'm not a pedigree guru but I do know that Gone West is not a stamina influence.

Union Rags will have to get help from Terpsichorist. Terpsichorist was quite well-bred, as she was not only by an English Triple Crown winner, but was out of Glad Rags II, champion filly in Ireland at 2 and heroine of the English One Thousand Guineas the following year. Dixie Union does not yet have a son that excelled past 9F, and only a small handfull at that distance. Grasshopper ran a close second to Street Sense in the Travers but that is as good as it gets from dad. Very impressive yesterday, but he will have to be a mammas boy to get it done. Let's wait and see how he does at 9F's with tougher company before we circle around start drinking the Kool-Aid.

Mary,

The dam is very important, but despite several good mares in his shed, Dixie Union does not have a runner to even win at 10F's that I can find. Only a handful have been good at 9F's so He will have to be a very lucky boy. He just might be if he has acquired anything from his routing second dam, Terpsichorist. She was very special. If he has, then we are in for a show.

to the people that say they were not impressed by Union Rags, please bet another horse so I can get better odds. I don't know what race you were watching, but he won in hand easily after tracking the leaders. You all focus so much on times, and you just don't get it. If he had to run faster, he could of, but he was at 80%. He did what he was supposed to do, WIN. I wonder sometimes about you folks...  

Second, Mark Valeksi and El Padrino will make some noise on the TC trail. El Padrino broke the stakes record, the 2 pulled clear by 5 legnths, and they showed heart battling to the wire.

Beyer's, really? If you want accurate, fair numbers, use equibase. Awseome Maria got a 103, Union Rags a 102, and El Padrino a 101. Look at the late pace numbers, the prime power etc if you want real tools to handicap a race.

Zorro, why the heck do you care what DRAY puts on the blog or says he bet. Stop worrying about Dray and what he won or lost and worry about yourself. In other words, get off his junk.

Mary and Pedigree Ann, my two lovely ladies, thanks for being the voice of reason when it comes to breeding. TOO TOO much is talked about the sire, and folks just ignore the dam. Like Mary said, Afleet Alex, his daddy was a miler, but he had a ton of distance and route influence in the female side, one being a World Record holder at 12 furlongs.

Union Buster, really? Put all of those mdn winners and allowance horses that ran faster on Sunday vs Union Rags, and watch what happens. Some people amaze me with their complete lack of racing knowledge.

I may have mixed up Brisnet and Equibase figures, but either way, I use equibase and brisnet, not beyers..... I also post from memory and do not research for hours before I post....

This statement was released by Lanes End a few minutes ago, to those of you who are interested in Thiskyhasnolimit.

UPDATE ON THISKYHASNOLIMIT: Bob Zollars told Three Chimneys this afternoon that THISKYHASNOLIMIT came out of surgery yesterday at LSU in good order. He is bearing weight on all four legs, moving around well & has a healthy appetite. As long as he continues to be a good patient, his prognosis is good. THISKYHASNOLIMIT has been a stakes/graded stakes winner each of the past four years, including a victory in this year’s Louisiana Handicap. THISKYHASNOLIMIT was pulled up in the Mineshaft H. (G3) on Saturday after suffering a fracture to his right front cannon bone. All of us at Three Chimneys are wishing him a safe recovery and will keep you abreast of any updates we hear about.

Draynot

   Hilarious !!! I was eating my lunch and almost choked to death I was laughing so hard.

Union Buster...Yawn..Union Rag's ran the distance faster then Awesome Maria did the day before, Do you hate her too ?

Draynot

   Unfortunately I was dumb enough to read it again while I was still eating lunch and I almost choked to death again !!! Tears streaming down my face. Thanks I needed that. I feel much better now than I did before lunch and it's not because of the food. Nothing like a good laugh. The crying kind. But beware of eating and laughing like that. Luckily Heimlich was here.

Like I said previously, some Jockeys are not loyal to the Horses they ride, and I had questioned their loyalty and even mentioned a few jockeys who knew their horses, and stuck with them, and reaped the sweet rewards!I watched the breeders cup last November at Churchill Downs, and I saw union rags making a move after Hansen, but I did notice Union's action, as the Jockey Castellano, was riding erratic, as first, Castellano made a wide turn for home, and then kept the Horse very wide, and then tried to angle inside, and then the Horse Union rags, became resistant, and apparently jumped a shadow, and kept coming, but due to the erratic handling of castellano, he lost to hansen.Well, the Horse proved on sunday that he is for real, and also he is a genuine racehorse, and ran and won on his own merit, without the slightest of urging!!!sorry javier castellano, you drew blank again, Pletcher Horses are not the ones anyone with racing knowledge should clamour to ride, as Pletcher horses, before the derby..always break down, go sick, and even when he runs 5 horses in the derby, he finishes of the board!he apparently, cannot take care of expensive horses, and they win and looks great, and becomes the favorites all the times, but after winning their last race, then they become sour, and all type of ail-ments take over on his horses, eg. the horse than ran on Saturday and won defeating Royal delta, that horse ran very well, but that horse was really cranked up, and won it's last race for a while, as whatever Pletcher is doing to his horses, they appear as giants, and runs races as if it's their last race in their career! I believe Pletcher should learn how to really take care of those expensive horses, and keep them sound, as too much break-downs, and sickness, over the years, leave me to have Pletcher on my vetinerian list,how about Eskendereya, Life At Ten, Uncle Mo, and many others who gets destroyed, it's like next.. next.. next...he apparently do not care, as the foolish owners believe in him, and are often left disappointed! go and learn how to train racehorses, D. Wayne Lucas

was not a horse lover but win anyway they can, type of Trainer, and today he is just a hanger-round, in the game, cannot even win a simple claiming race!

I know that Pletcher do win many races in bunches, eg. this current race meet at Gulfstream Park, he is on fire, but he also have all those expensive horses campaigning against lesser talented horses,by value, and makes him looks great,I dont know but I would take my expensive horses from pletcher, he has too many excuse already, enough is enough...when Uncle Mo got beat, suddenly he was sick, then he was taken out of training, and returned and defeated 3 horses going 1mile, at belmont, and they said he was back, then when he got beat at the breeders cup, which they said he could not loose, then he was sick again, now saying that the illness was not fully recovered

then they finally retired him.

what is he going to do with Algorithims now? I bet that this one will never race in kentucky, but also retired...they are going to say he never recovered from the splints in the foot!!!bye, bye ...

How good is the factor. He destroyed a good field and looks like 7 furlongs hits him right in the nose. I think he is going to be tough this year. This years triple crown trail is interesting there still hasnt been many wow performances but I am sure they are coming!

Laz,

95 Beyer seems about right when you look at the cheap horses who all day long ran faster fractions. Politicallycorrect would have won the FOY had he entered. He was something like 16 lengths faster through 7f. The FOY was run so slow up front it allowed a couple horses to finish with good energy and look better than they were.

El Kabong,

I'm not sour, I simply think that El Padrino is quite slow. I read another blog comment where the writer stated that El Padrino finished up the last 1/16 fast. When a horse runs splits of 24 2/5 48 3/5 1:13 and a mile in 1:36 4/5 they should have something left in the tank for the finish. I actually upgraded El Padrino to my #8 spot last week, but was not impressed with his effort. I still say that Pletcher's best horse for the Derby trail is Gemologist. My eyes and mind are wide open to any top class colt at this point on the trail.

Algo is done he is off the trail! Another pletcher horse with a ton of talent but gets hurt. Pletchers only chance is to get borel on one of his horses! I have the derby down to 15 horses since I will toss anyone trained by pletcher! Union Rags is good but his bandwagon is full until next weeks races come then everyone will jump on that horse! Wait till late march before crowning someone the next big brown.

I agree with El Kabong that if Union Rags is able to get significant distance (10f. or more), then it is probably due to Terpsichorist. She set records for 11 and 13f. during her racing career. I will link an Alan Porter article that discusses both sides of UR's pedigree. It is a bit lengthy, but very informative.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../union-rags-special-win-hope-for-sires-line

Billy's Empire - couldn't agree more with your take.

Grade III competition?  We'll see come Breeder's Cup Time.  Game on Dude vs. HDG= Game Over.  Do you think anything from the east stands a change against G.O.D. over the Santa Anita surface?  In fact, the last time I spoke I gave you Life is Sweet at 18.00 over a 9/5 Carless Jewel and a 2/1 "Well Rested Music Note" who was predicted to "clean" Zenyatta's clock before she defected to the Big time.  This time I give you the "female" version of G.O.D. Ellafitz over HDG at Santa Anita and you won't have synthetics for "Music Note not finding today" and Careless Jewel is shortening her stride.  Some other Breeder's Cup singles would have to be The Factor and Mr. Commons.  

According to Draynay, a horse who received a 98 beyer should not be mentioned in the same sentence as that who received a 95.....lol. Nice job

Laz:

"22 Feb 2012 3:51 PM"

Do you remember your post in "Baffert Back in the Mix", when I called Union Rags a Monster.

Now, I don't think I need to say anything. Let me just quote your words, just in case you forgot,

"Just to let you know your MONSTER hasn’t won a race past a mile yet.  In his last, in case you forgot, he stared a so-called inferior horse in the eye at the 16th pole and couldn’t get past him."

Try something better next time.

Just a heads up for some of you... Alvarado should have a big day Wed. at Aqueduct.

Draynot,

 You have to be a prosecutor for the DA's office, I know it, don't deny it; that was incredible!

Dennis,

  Amen, brother.

The Beyer could be 70 for Union Rags, it doesn't matter people. He won the race without expending more that a workout level of energy, his Beyer is non-important, as it does not reflect what he really had to put into the race. This is where the comments on the race results would be much more important than what the horse Beyered. A good thing to remember when reading Beyers is that a horse does not always have to run lights out to win a race.

Forbidden Apple,

I'm glad to hear that, because some very astute writers and handicappers are viewing that effort quite differently. Take a look at last year's Risen Star won my Mucho Macho Man, eventual 3rd place finisher in the KD. El Padrino's time is a full second faster. All things are never equal, but it can't be viewed as slow when you consider that difference. It was plenty good for the time being and if he improves as his pedigree suggests, I see no reason why he doesn't hit the board down the road. He's the real deal. Plus, you have to value the gut check he got from a worthy challenger. Larry is back and I for one appreciate the big grin   under that classic white hat.

Is there any chance that Algorithms will be back in time for the Kentucky Derby or is it unlikely.

Wow....everytime a horse wins you people go nuts....never have i seen such a buzz on a horse that hasnt even run over a hundred beyer fig....rookiees! You people talk about how a horse is a piece of crap because they lose a race.....DONT YOU GET IT? You are not understanding the GAME! Were any of you paying attn last year?

Karen In Tx,

Nice work. I wrote that down on my Union Rags file and couldn't remember where I found that, but it must have been Mr. Porter's write up. Didn't mean as much to me then, but it means a whole lot more now. Nice find and what a great read.

It ain't easy being you,

If that was just an opinion and not a fact about algorithms, you stink. That type of injury can heal in two weeks or two months depending on it's location. We all want him back except for the therapy deprived Hamlets fixated on a silver haired Claudius.

If you do have an inside lead on Algorithms future, please ignore the part about Hamlet.

Heard that Casual Trick displaced his palate and will undergo surgery to correct. It may be that this guy when he is problem free may live up to his breeding. I would love it if Zito could have him ready for the Belmont.

Zito should take Casual Trick out of the TC Trail and I believe he will.Somethings not right with him,IMO.

Carlos in Cali 26 Feb 2012 6:18 PM.

Was reading that N. Zito reported Monday Casual Trick displaced his palate during the race and during his previous race, will require minor throat surgery, and he should be back to track shortly.

Sharjyl

You got me.  You have a great eye and sure can pick a horse.  And there is no doubt that in the FOY Union Rags looked awesome.

NASCAR PRO--i'm not a low weight player, i'm just someone who thinks weights matter and that you have to look at the weights carried in a given race to properly judge performances (just like you have to look at the internal fractions),  especially in three year old races.

not sure what your point was, this IS the first win by the high weight in the foy in 5 years, i gave rags his props for it, but it WAS also slow--and beyer agrees.  i've never said anything about the last 12 years and the FOY (the gotham is another story). also,  i didn't take just any lowest weight, i took the lowest weight with supposedly the most dangerous speed...unfortunately, johnnie v strangled DD, DD got stuck on a dead rail, and DD's hype was not deserved--he's not the killer speed of this crop that his press made him out to be.  as for weight, 116lbs has won almost 60% of this years ky derby preps over a mile on dirt and has been in the money 100% of the time--scoff if you like, but 3 yo horses carrying 120lbs or more have only won 4 times this year, in preps with weight allowances...

Papillon and others, you need to understand that Union Rags ran close to the pace because it was slow.  The FOY was just a workout for him.  He's a different kind of horse, if the pace is slow he becomes a stalker, if it is fast, he majically becomes a closer.  The bottom line is that Julien caught the pacesetters at there own game, slow, and so he stayed up close. I don't think that Algorithms would have beat Union Rags in the FOY.  Union Rags and Julien are two of a kind, intelligent.  

Billy

There’s one area where you never get mixed up and that’s how great you are.  Talk about being condescending I think you wrote the book.  Let us know when you pick something at better that 5-1, before the race, not the next day.

Carlos in Cali, yes Gone West is, he is out of a Secretariat mare.  Please everyone look at the tail side of Union Rags'pedigree. That's where you will find the stamina.    

Is Algorithms really going to make it back on the TC trail ?  I'm not knowledgeable on any health issues on horses so I'm not sure what a popped shin is on a horse, I'm sure Pedigree Ann can probably explain it and hope she does.

If it's not that serious, it'd be awesome if Algorithms can come back healthy and not pushed to make the Derby.  I still think El Padrino has the advantage so far, he's battle tested.  I think El Padrino will really love the 10F distance.  I don't think Mark Valeski will make any noise the rest of the TC preps, if he does, I'll let him beat me.  I think he's pretty much done after that duel with EP in the Risen Star.  I could be wrong, it does happen lol.

Anyone know who Draynay picks for the HOTY yet (it's almost March, normally he would've already picked the HOTY winner) ?  I think he's still high on Zenyatta thnking she's still beating up on the boys.  Once his dial up connects, he'll be able to catch up to 2011 and find out she won the HOTY and is happily retired.

Union Buster

Like some are saying, I really don’t think that Beyers mean all that much anymore, certainly not as much as they used to in the past.  The Beyers at Santa Anita and on synthetic tracks are way off IMO.  Sometimes the Beyers in the east far exceed what we anticipate they will be.  Three years ago Quality Road won this race in good time, received a 113 Beyer (most horses can only dream of that type of Beyer number these days) and where did he end up finishing every time he tried 10F.

Time doesn’t mean all that much to me either.  Just because a horse runs fast IMO it doesn’t mean all that much.  I place much more emphasis on class than time and those horses that might have run faster on FOY day, probably wouldn’t look so strong if they ran against a classy horse like Rags and would more than likely finish behind him.  When I handicap (no I’m not as good as Draynay or Billy’s Empire) I’m only concerned with the closing fractions.  That is the one portion of the race when all horses are running as fast as they can.  They don’t necessarily run as fast as they can early.

Union Rags, based on his impressive win in the FOY and even more impressive style in gaining that win is now the leading candidate to win the Derby.  However, we will see during the next few weeks that a lot of things are gong to happen and others are also going to become legitimate candidates to win the race.  Although Union Rags is right up there with most candidates at this point to win the Derby and on most lists (including mine at this time) is the favorite, there are still many negatives or concerns that he will have to overcome.

Union Rags has only won as far as 8.5F at this point in his career and although in the past 15 years or so several Derby winners won the race with their previous longest win coming at a distance less than 9F, I think that everyone of them had 10F in their first line pedigree either top or bottom or both.  My concern with Union Rags is that I don’t see where his sire has sired a top winner beyond 9F.  His mother, Tempo, has not displayed anything on the track or with her progeny that suggests 10F.  Her mother, Terpshichoris, won at 10F and better, but never dropped a foal, filly or colt that won beyond 8.5F.  the question is……is Union rags a 10F horse?

As for as the FOY itself, Discreet Dancer showed a distance weakness and other than him there was absolutely nothing in the race that wouldn’t be at real long odds in the Derby.  There was no other horse closing that was a threat in a very small field.  He was strictly on his own, which made him look even more dominant.  

There are historical concerns also.  Of the previous 42 editions of this race exactly TWO of the winners have won a Kentucky Derby: Spectacular Bid and Thunder Gulch.  Only TWO have won a Preakness:  Spectacular Bid and Bet Twice; and only TWO have won a Belmont:  Bet Twice and Thunder Gulch.  Based on that, the FOY winner historically has a 4.7% chance of winning a TC race of any kind.  I guess all we can do is see how Rags progresses.

Union Rags sure improved a lot since getting whipped so badly in the BC Juvenile. He might turn out to be a good one after all.

papillon,

Points made were all valid. Solid post, but man I hope you are wrong about the Florida Derby. I'd like to see some folks realize that you will have to face the competition at some point. Better sooner than later and 9f's is quite different from 10. Plus, the Graded earnings for 2nd and 3rd are pretty damn good in Florida. Meet the enemy head on, it worked for Theoden, Aragorn and  Gondor!

Karen in Texas, it could be Terpsichorist, but I would say that the Gone West line also has a lot to do with Union Rags ability to run longer distances.  

Draynay at the track Sunday: "Anybody got a dime, anybody got a dime, anybody got a dime? Excuse me Mister, can you spare a dime for an ol' chalkeater down on his luck? Thank you. Sir, do you have any loose change? Ma'am, Draynot had me down at the station grilling me for hours so I didn't have time to go to the bank, could you spare a dime?" He manages to scrape up another two bucks to bet more on Union Rags  and then parlays the $4.40 to zero betting the favorite in the next race who finishes 6th.

Union Rags' grandsire, Gone West sired a Belmont winner, Commendable in 1997.  Gone West has plenty of stamina in his pedigree.

Dr Drunkinbum,

HILLARIOUS!!! You're are riot Pal (LOL)

Mary,

There is also stamina in Union Rags' sire line. Dixie Union is a son of Dixieland Band and grandson of Northern Dancer and has inbreeding to Hyperion and Gainsborough.  Don't buy into the bashing of Dixie Union. Any stamina limitation passed on by him to his offsprings is probably due to Capote, the son of Seattle Slew, but there is plenty of stamina there as well.

Mary, one distance winner does not a distance sire make. Gone West does have some stamina influences in his ancestry -Secretariat, Tim Tam, Nashua - but how often did it show up in his offspring? Not often enough that we can take it as a given that he transmits stamina consistently.

Now Union Rags may be the exception, like Commendable (who was out of a Nerud/Tartan-bred mare from a great family and took advantage of sitting just off a walking pace - 1:39.11 mile, 2:05.11 10f.) But one can't count on it.  

I don't think Gone West has ever been considered a stamina influence.  I think his offsprings AWD is a little above 8 furlongs.  You cannot just pick out examples that fit what you want.  You have to look at the average winning distance to find what his general influence might be.  Does that mean that he can't be the broodmare sire of a Derby winner?  No, but the AWD does tell you that he is not usually the source of stamina in a pedigree.  Many of you seem to be depending on the influence of Nijinsky, but he is another generation removed from the Gone West influence, hence his influence is not as strong theoretically.  None of this means that Union Rags can't go 10 furlongs.  My point is that Gone West should not be called a stamina influence.

"Draynot what a shame you're not me."

"They don't call me the Derby Nostradomus for nothing you know."

Draynay 27 Feb 2012 2:54 PM

While you were taking your 6/5 to winning tickets on Union Rags to the window I was taking my 30/1 winning exacta tickets (Rags/News Pending paid $62.60) to the window. No guts no glory. When I like a horse as much as I did Union Rags in that race I look for the longshot who will finish second to increase my value. Something you are unable to do is pick a longshot anywhere. Every time you head to the windows to cash a rare ticket the chalk dust is flying off your shoes.

predict,

I'm not a District Attorney but as a retired Union Representative I know how to investigate unfounded allegations or untrue statements and how to tear them apart in mediation or arbitration. I've gone up against many a high powered attorney and kicked their *** whether it be in contract negotiations or grievance resolution. I retired just over a year ago at age 54, I now spend my leisure time at the track taking money from the draynays of the world or on a warm sunny beach in the winter and my condo in Vail both winter and summer.

Dr. Drunkinbum,

Now that was funny!! Especially the part about parlaying his paltry winnings to zero the next race while choking on chalk.

KY VET : While I agree with you that jumping off a horse after a loss is dumb.  When you have actually hit something big then you can start calling people rookies.   Don't call yourself a Pro and claim you make a lot of money from betting horses unless you can prove it.

Check out my facebook pics as proof :) :

www.facebook.com/.../set

I didn't take a pic of my Southwest P4 since I already posted it in the other blog, hopefully someone did follow it - paid $840 for .50 cent.

When you hit something close to those winning tickets, then I'll start listening to you.

The Risen finish was complete nonsense.  El Padrino will be running in the Florida Derby.  They will avoid running against Mark Valesky who beat them the last time they faced each other.  El Padrino = Pyro

Well said Footlick & Pedigree Ann.

Ranagulzion & Mary: I'll bet against a Dixie Union-Gone West going 10f any day of the week.Union Rags is very good,but you should be concerned about his ability to handle the Classic distances vs. top flight horses on pedigree alone.

Forbidden Apple: If El Padrino is slow then Union Rags is too. They practically ran the same splits.  

Ky Vet I agree every sunday the blog goes nuts over a prep race. There will be bandwagon jumpers left and right but I am still waiting for Uncle Mo to cross the finish line for the classic!

Also some people say that people are obssessed with the sire and not the dam side. Who cares about the dame side. How many times do you see michael jordans son, tim hardaway jr, dale E or Dell Curry and talk about the momma! I have never heard oh his mom was a great volleyball player its all ABOUT THE SIRE PEOPLE! If his daddy cant get 10 furlongs neither will his son!

Montjeu is a sire who produces stayers. He has at least two distance runners out of Gone West mares, Motivator and his full-brother Macarthur.

Motivator won the Epsom Derby over 12 furlongs.

MacArthur won beyond 12 furlongs.

 The way I'm looking at it, there is a lot of stamina on the tail side of Union Rags pedigree, as well as on his sire's side, but I do tend to look for stamina more on the tail side of the pedigree.  

Thank you Ranagulzion, no I won't buy into the garbage out there about Dixie Union and his lack of producing stamina offspring.  It's not true.  Everyone said that about Bold Ruler, and look what he produced, the mighty Secretariat.  So I don't for a moment believe what bloggers, etc. are saying about Dixie Union.  

Pedigree Ann, there are not many sires out there that have produced a Belmont winner; I don't care about the pace, Commendable went the distance.  Michael Matz said the horse can run all day long, so since he is Union Rags trainer, I believe him.

Carlos in Cali are you really comparing El Padrino who had to mug Mark Valeski all the way to the wire to win to Union Rags who off a 4 month layoff won in a hand ride having never felt the whip ?  Is this sport new to you and Steve Haskin ?

Billy's Empire I didnt know Draynay had an attorney representing him on the blog.BTW I dont think Draynay needs a mouthpiece,he probably kept the last one he wore at Lenoir Rhyne.

Papillon thanx for the update,there are still many preps to run.

Draynay,you better hope El Padrino stays in La. If he goes in the Fla.Derby Union Rags will have to contend with a horse who will be running as fast or faster than him down the stretch.He won't be meeting any Discreet Dancers' from here on...

Carlos in Cali The Godfather might not travel,might try to bust the Union in Florida.

Zorro, those that have been around for a while all know to ignore Dray, and here you are falling right into his trap. Keep it up. You look like a fool.

Laz, condescending? Nah, I just call it like I see it. Sorry the truth hurts sometimes. Pull up your big girl panties and get over it. If you want, we can post picks every week. You let me know the race slick.

JR Does anyone know what Union Rags stride angle is?  that sounds to me like a question for Coldfacts but I think he was kicked off the blog by management after disparaging remarks made by Animal Kingdoms owner.

It ain't easy being good, you must be kidding.  Obviously you don't know anything about pedigree.  I hope you don't bet on any races, because without at least some knowledge of pedigree, you're going to lose more often than win.  I can't believe you made such a crazy comment.  

Carlos anyone who believes El Padrino is a Derby horse or in the same league as Union Rags must believe Rick Santorum is a real candidate and Mitt Romney is a regular guy.

El Padrino beat Michael Velaski by a nose.  He's lucky he won.  Castellano was bumping Rosie all the way down the stretch.  I was at that race. Castellano is careless and dangerous.  El Padrino will never beat Union Rags.  He'll stay in New Orleans, of that I am sure.  

Carlos, come on, Union Rags was under a hand ride.  The FOY was merely another workout session for him.    

Billy's Empire I dont think I fell into any traps,but if you think I did then well thats why we bet on horses,because we have differing opinions.Draynay is a staunch Union supporter and he was right in the FOY.On the contrary he and KY Vet were so sure UM was the real deal in the Classic.

Thank you Mary.  I am glad someone else saw what I saw.  Mark won that race.

OK. What I saw this weekend was Valeski running a big race vs. El Padrino and the field Union Rags beat laboring down the stretch. Algorithms would've let him know he was in a horserace,too bad he's injured.

Switch the fields and you'll have El Padrino pulling away and Union Rags in a dogfight against Valeski.. it's that simple.

Draynay,

I believe whatever you say,like I believe what Bonds,Clemens and Braun say too.  

Alpha might try the Fla.Derby too,according to his trainer.

I cannot believe how misguided and ignorant alot of people are on here....beyer figures tell you how fast a horse ran....period! brisnet same thing.....who said bet the best beyer? or bet the best brisnet? all it does is take the track variant into the time.......and i have hardly ever given picks on here..... i didnt like mo in the classic, i thought every contender was tired, so i put small bet on the foreign  horse....the race was weak time because everyone went off form...

Mary I make it rain at the track and I never look at the dam side there are alot of other variables to look at and I do well. I never look at the dam side and dont need to. I pegged Dross in the classic if you dont believe hit the history post! I also go to bloodhorse and look at replays that can help too. If you need a handicapping lesson let me know... I will give you a discount!

jay jay,

Your response to KY VET gave me a good laugh. This blog has become serious comic relief (LOL)

Pedigree Ann,

I have great regard for your postings on pedigree issues. Aside from the doubts many people have about Dixie Union's stamina influence, don't you find the multiple inbreeding (top and bottom) to the phenomenal Epsom Derby and St Leger winner Hyperion as well as that one's English Triple Crown winning sire Gainsborough enough assurance of classic stamina in Union Rags, bearing in mind that there has been no evidence from his performances to date that he will quit going 10 Furlongs?

Those who attribute his swerving in the BCJ to being tired are very mistaken for four reasons: 1) he did the same in the Saratoga Special at 6 1/2 furlongs while lengthening his strides in the stretch; he contested strong early fractions in that race but was really going great guns at the end - not a sign of tiring. 2) he was again lengthening his strides while closing in on Hansen in the BCJ and a tiring horse shortens strides, not lengthen them and gallop out strong as UR did 3) Javier Castellano seems suspect at keeping his mounts straight sometimes as evidenced again on El Padrino in the Risen Star: he rode UR on those occassions including the Champagne when he was switching the colt in and out with a very erratic ride. Therefore the jockey was partly responsible 4) Trainer Michael Matz is a very level-headed and realistic trainer and he has said repeatedly that the horse has shown no stamina limitations.

It would be nice to get a response from you on this.

Footlick,

Lets hear from you also on the above.

Carlos,

Bring on the sons and grandsons of your 'boy' AP Indy ...only remember that we are talking about the Kentucky Derby here, not the Travers.  

Ranagulzion- Since you asked I will comment, even though I had decided to drop the subject after my other post.  I look at extended pedigrees because I like to trace pedigrees back to major influences in the breed.  But I don't put much faith in anything that far back being a direct influence as to speed or stamina.  I really don't look much beyond the 2nd generation back for direct influences.  As far as Union Rags, I have learned that many a trainer will say he doesn't think his horse has distance limitations, only to discover that a strong 9 furlongs does not translate into a strong 10 furlongs.  Even though his pedigree does not scream distance, that does not mean Union Rags will not be able to get 10 furlongs.  But the fact that he is not getting a stamina boost from Gone West makes him vulnerable, IMO.  As JerseyBoy pointed out, Montjeu sired two distance horses out of a Gone West mare, but he is one of the premier stamina influences in the world.  Dixie Union is not, though his AWD is not  bad.  IMHO, he is no better or worse a chance than many others.  Thanks for asking.

It aint easy----You pegged Dross in the Classic with a little help from Coldfacts, didn't you? :)  

It ain't easy being good, no I don't want a handicapping lesson from someone who knows nothing about pedigree.  I do well on my own, but thank you for the offer.

It ain't easy, there are many variables to look at, I agree with that; track conditions, workouts, jockey, trainer, PEDIGREE, sprinter or router, stride, conformation, etc.  I look at it all, and that is why I placed a bet on Mine That Bird to win the Kentucky Derby. Handicapping is difficult, a lot of work goes into it. Also, a bit of intuition is involved, but it is a lot of fun.  

Ranagulzion, you are right.  I was in New Orleans for the Risen Star, and Castellano has IMO attention deficit syndrome.  El Padrino had a problem running straight.  I'm just happy that Union Rags finally had a good trip, a good workout in the FOY.  That is what MM wanted, a nice workout.  The horse is a monster.

Carlos in Cali, like I have been saying Union Rags had simply a workout in FOY.  Matz wasn't even looking for a win; just a good work.  It was just a hand ride.  Okay I'm done with you, evidentally you don't know a whole lot about horseracing.  Your comments are childish, so I must assume that you are very young and just looking for an argument.

Billy

Hey genius you forgot to tell me to put on my eye shadow and check my lipstick.  Who did you pick in last year’s Derby again?

This is the race record of OASIS DREAM:

1st:

Middle Park S. (GB-G1,6F), July Cup (GB-G1,6F),

Nunthorpe S. (GB-G1,5F).

2nd:

Sprint Cup (GB-G1,6F)

3rd:

King's Stand S. (GB-G2,5F)

Taken from the Racing Post:

“2012 STUD FEE: GBP 85,000

SIRE COMMENT: top-class 2yo/sprinter…. gets high-class sprinters to middle-distance runners and 2yos”.

Famous offspring:

Midday, won at 12 fur.

Monitor Closely , won up at 12 fur.

Sri Putra, won at 10 fur.

Whether a horse is a sire or dam, the horse should be judged by its output, not by some analysis of the horse’s pedigree. The inherited characteristics are already accounted for by the output.

Pedigree is only useful when attempting to assess the potential of untested horses.

Papillon why are you still posting misinformation on this blog,you should get a job working for a hedge fund releasing information that fits their situation.On Feb 27 at 12:10 you posted the upside of rags' win today is that he won giving the entire field 6 lbs, and beat a race bias that has had low weights winning it for the last 5 years.The ONLY low weight to win the FOY in the last 11 years was Quality Road in 2009.If you disagree I will bet you whatever you want.

KY vet Beyer figures are only a guide to reveal who HAS run faster in previous races.When betting 3yos you have to make projections,because these developing colts can improve more than 10 beyer points in a race or more when the trainer tightens the screws in preparring them.If you read "Beyer on Speed" he himself writes that the future will be using more accurate figures combined with trip handicapping.I have used Beyers with handicap horses such as Skip Away where he was so consistent that he regularly ran 105+ Beyers where his competition already having run a lot of races, some couldnt even break the 100 Beyer mark.But like I wrote these are 3yos and most are lightly raced there are not a lot of samples to base your reasoning on.They can improve 10 or 15 Beyer points from one race to the next.

Ranagulzion;

Hyperion was one of the great stallions in the history of the breed, sire of horses of all distance abilities. But inbreeding to him at the distance one finds in Union Rags (closest 5x6) does not guarantee any particular distance ability, just general quality. Consider the outstanding Aussie miler Imposing; Hyperion 4x5 didn't help him run longer.

Closer up, Union Rags has Northern Dancer 3x4 and Mr. Prospector 4x3. One of the Northern Dancer crosses is through EP Taylor-bred Nijinky II, so that is to the good. (I contend that inbreeding to NoD should always include a Taylor-bred.) The other is Dixieland Band, who could sire horses who stayed (an Ascot Gold Cup winner included).

On the other hand, both of the Mr. Prospector offspring in the cross never won beyond 8f-8.5f.

So where does that get us in this analysis? May be a case of what we had to say when we were asked how tall my son was going to be after he had reached 6' by age 12 - we'll know when we get there. (Only 6'3", by the way.)

Analysis of physical traits, which is NOT one of my strengths, could give some clues. Is he like Dixie Union or Gone West? Or like Dixieland Band or Nijinsky? Or even Capote or Secrettame? Conformation people?

Mary there was some talk before regarding Pedigree and how people are obssessed with Sires I was stating the fact that you should look at Pedigree! I was just saying that I dont look at the females side of pedigree if you do thats great I dont and never will! Karen the bandwagon was empty during the classic on dross and your right without coldfacts I would be lost that guy is the man and those who hate on his posts are intimidated by his knowlege that man knows his horses! and KT VET your crazy if you dont think you were hyping Uncle Mo and his beyers during the classic.

Union rags is a nice colt but come on people its been one race calm down!

It's always fun to find sires who are a bit of a surprise like Oasis Dream, where he does get a few horses who have been able to get a distance of ground. But even with the horses JerseyBoy cited, his AWD is still only 7.1 furlongs, which means that the majority of his foals can't run a distance of ground.  Oasis Dream is out of a Dancing Brave broodmare which does help.

Pedigree Ann----I have not seen Union Rags in person, and I certainly never saw Nijinsky, but I found a comment by Frank Mitchell who authored the book, "Racehorse Breeding Theories". He says that Terpsichorist had the "scope and brawn" of Nijinsky. To quote--"The foals out of Glad Rags were some of the prettiest horses I have seen, but Terpsichorist had a great deal of the scope and brawn of her great sire." Interesting, since UR has become so large. I am unable to find a picture of her, but wonder if her appearance/phenotype is manifested in UR. If so, perhaps her distance abilities are as well.

Laz, condescending? Nah, I just call it like I see it. Sorry the truth hurts sometimes. Pull up your big girl panties and get over it. If you want, we can post picks every week. You let me know the race slick.

Billy's Empire 28 Feb 2012 4:05 PM.

Billy

Hey genius you forgot to tell me to put on my eye shadow and check my lipstick.  Who did you pick in last year’s Derby again?

LAZMANNICK 28 Feb 2012 11:55 PM.

Make the race this year's K. Derby, settle it this way, the person whom picks the winner of the race gets 10 points and bragging rights, if neither picks the winner, the person that picks the horse that has the higher finish gets 5 points and bragging rights.  

Mary, don't flatter yourself. I know you're new to Jason's blog so I'll let it go.. for now. Just remember what I've said about the Dixie Unions'. I know my racing.

Ranagulzion,

The AP Indy's are dropping like flies.First Algorithms then Casual Trick followed by Junebugred.. so count your "late development theory" blessings my fiend. Even though I felt they weren't major players if they made it to the Derby.

I am the godfather of handicapping just wanted to throw that out there! You bloggers are all out of your minds if you think Union rags will win the derby here we go again hype horse of the month! Cant wait to hear about Hansen after this weekend! Then the winner of the florida derby and tampa derby!

TCC

That's if Billy gets back from his trip to sea with Captain Highliner.  Besides the second favorite to him is a long shot.  

Carlos,

You can now add Consortium to the list. It can be no blessing to see horses get injured. I'd prefer my theory be proven wrong. I have noticed that whenever the AP Indys are pushed to make the Spring Classics they tend to hurt themselves or run lacklustre until Summer/Fall. Lets hope that the others endure the challenge, especially El Padrino and Hansen.

Pedigree Ann & Footlick,

I appreciate your respective responses. I guess that part of the fascination with Union Rags' campaign will be to see him stretch out in majestic fashion. I believe he'll be like both Nijinsky and Secretariat and get the ultimate Classic distance of 12 furlongs. We already know that he relishes a good run over the Belmont surface and he'll revel in the slop so lets bring on the distance. Times like these don't come often so we got to enjoy 'em whether you're a visionary, skeptic or hindsighter.    

Footlick:

You wrote of Oasis dream:

"his AWD is still only 7.1 furlongs, which means that the majority of his foals can't run a distance of ground".

The average is low because he sires horses who win at both short distances and long distances. The sprinters bring down the average. The low average is a result of his versatility.

However, for me, none of this matters. What I look at is what the result is, not what, in theory, it should be. I could not care less about a horse’s pedigree if the horse’s performance is available.

Csrlos in Cali, I'm not new to Jason's blog.  I do know something about pedigree, although I am not an expert but I don't think that you know the first thing abou it.  You keep harping on Dixie Union with no mention of the mare.  I'm not going to respond to you anymore, because you really can't have any semblance of an intelligent conversation concerning pedigree.

It aint easy,

The Factor may have won that battle, but Sway Away was gaining on him rapidly. I'm looking forward to that rematch and a win for Sway Away. He is a quality animal that just never seems to win, soon come. And good luck in Dubai, if Jeff Bonde ships Frumious it's all over for The Factor. That straight dragstrip is just what the doctor ordered for Frumious.

El Kabong,

I admit that I do not follow Fairgrounds often, but the race still seemed average to me. Maybe El Padrino should head to the FL derby and try his luck against the monster named Union Rags. Larry Jones is my favorite trainer, I love how he does all of the dirty work and is the trainer. Most top trainers never get dirty, he is a class act and a great example of what one can achieve with hard hands on work.

Carlos in Cali,

El Padrino vs. Union Rags is like comparing a mustang to a lamborghini. Have you ever listened to the beautiful sounds that come out of a roaring lamborghini? I agree that Union Rags was out for a gallop against inferior competition. But so much of horse racing is anticipating the future and how much improvement is possible. I'm not writing off El Padrino, I just think his race at the Fairgrounds was average at best. Union Rags appears to have his engine firing on all cylinders at the moment.

Yes, Kiaran did mention the FL derby as a possibility for Alpha. I'm thinking that he will wake up soon and realize that the path of least resistance is in NY. Why run against Union Rags before the KY Derby?

JerseyBoy- The low average has nothing to do with versatility.  The majority of his horses sprint.  That is why his AWD is low.  The more versatile and balanced a horses offspring, the wider the spectrum of distances won at, so the higher the AWD.  But you can interpret it however you want.

Ranagulzion - that is why I asked about physical appearance. When the pedigree can go any direction, knowing which close ancestor the animal physically take after gives more clues. Like my youngest brother, who physically resembled his namesake grandfather, an academic in agriculture, a farmer, and 'rod and gun' clubber; bro got degree in hydrology, works in designing irrigation systems for agriculture, bow-hunts in the mountains...,

Laz, I actually picked Animal Kingdom, just like you, GENIUS, and I had St Johns River/Plum Pretty exacta in the OAKS. I have texts on my phone to still prove it. I just looked. I go to the track every morning during Derby week. You can learn a ton by wathcing, and Plum Pretty looked awesome. So did AK. I loved the way St Johns was coming into the race and the price was right. SO, IF your intent was saying I only played chalk and you were going to try to throw in how awesome you think you are, you don't need to worry. We all think you are awesome buddy...

At Breeders Cup, I did horrendous, only hit 1 pick 3 that ended with Hansen, but everyone has a bad day(s)

I will be at Derby and Oaks again this year if you want to join me. I am always looking for an expert handicapper to sit with for tips

Yes, Kiaran did mention the FL derby as a possibility for Alpha. I'm thinking that he will wake up soon and realize that the path of least resistance is in NY. Why run against Union Rags before the KY Derby?

Forbidden Apple 29 Feb 2012 8:52 PM.

Roman Dominguez is the regular rider for both Alpha and Hanson, if he runs Alpha in the Flordia Derby, Ramon will ride him. If he runs Alpha in the Wood Memorial against Hanson who will Ramon ride?

Fine by me Mary. I should've known better when you said Gone West was a stamina influence.

Hey Billy.  I would love to join you at the Derby but I'm not that fortunate that I would be able to make it.  I hope you have a splendid time Derby week though and may all your wagers be winners.  

Pedigree Ann,

I find this subject quite fascinating. You can never be certain where the dominant traits are coming from but if certain names appear often enough it tells you what the quality of the horse is likely to be.  

For example, whenever the blue hen mare La Troinne appears multiple times accross the pedigree matrix you can be fairly confident of a horse's ability to be competitive at the classic distance. Many breeders believe that it doen't hurt to keep adding La Troinne blood (usually via buckpasser) when breeding for The Classics.  

I believe the same is true of Hyperion. You not only look for how close up in the pedigree but for how distributed he is throughout the matrix. Union Rags has multiple crosses of Hyperion, top and bottom. It has also been said by his owner that he was a very lazy/sleepy yearling and is a very docile individual (which was one of the reasons he was originally sold prior to being bought back by the original owner), traits which are remarkably similar to Hyperion (he was a very sleepy/lazy colt, hence my conclusion that the secret of his stamina also lies there. In terms of phenotype he appears to be built like Nijinsky, one that stood 16.3 hands and galloped with powerful strides. Interestingly Nijinsky was bred by the legendary Canadian breeder E.P.taylor with the Rasmussen factor,i.e. inbreed 5X5 to Selene, dam of Hyperion, through different offsprings.

Nijinsky's ability to get the distance of the Epsom derby was doubted by many but we know the history.  Same goes for Secretariat. I have every confidence that he'll not only stay 10 furlongs but also the distance of the Belmont stakes. He has already shown a relish for the Belmont surface. Let watch and enjoy.

I appreciate you engaging me in this discussion.

First off I saw DRAYNAY's name on here for the first time since after he took a bath at Breeders Cup (MO CLASSIC, LOL) and threw up a little in my mouth, second nothing like a 6/5 effort out of Union Rags to bring him on here bragging already. Dude have you ever bet any horse over 2-1??? By the way never heard anything about that losing ticket on Mo you were suppose to send me to prove you bet the amounts you say you do. But don't worry not like I really expected it. Everyone knows your nothing but a chalk betting blow hard anyway that does a good job of telling people how much you made AFTER the results have been posted. Nice to see your 2011 Derby horse (after you switched 3 times when Mo wasnt running, Mo triple crown god you crack me up!) finally beat up on some useless pigs at the fairgrounds and won a race. I have met a ton of people going to the track some good some not so good but you take the case. Your credit-ability on these blogs is lower then Romney's poll numbers in the south. PLEASE tell me your not a Democrat I can take your running of the mouth when it comes to touting 3/5's but knowing we are on the same side politics wise just will put me over the edge! Anyway glad to log on and see that your still doing what you do best and that is bragging about how good you are, when we all know you lack the basic skills to handicap your way out of a brown paper bag. Good luck at the windows everyone. And DRAYNAY please tell us who you like before the prep races this year again, last year it was a wonderful handicapping angle to use so we all knew who couldn't win!!

Nijinsky also lost the Arc in a photo to Sassafras in 1970 and did win at 12F twice and also at 14F.

@ KY VET- would you do us all a favor and just drop off the planet ( and the BH blogs).  Your condescending attitude was sickening last year at TC time, and in this 1 blog here, I have had enough of your snarkniness for this year.  Go away; please just go away.

TCC,

We will all no more tomorrow after the Gotham. I'm going with an exacta box of Side Road and My Adonis.

Beware of Emcee in the Tom Fool, he can run the field off from their feet in a hurry.

You guys are insane.  You are running everyone off this forum with your very unclassy remarks.  I can only surmise that you all are very young.  No more talk, moving on.  

Hyperion is a descendant of the great mare Pocahontas.  It is thought that she carried the large heart gene.  Somethingroyal inherited the gene from her sire, Princequillo, and passed it on to her great son, Secretariat.  That's why I like the fact that Secretariat is located on the tail side of Union Rags' pedigree.

Confucius says:Its not about choosing the individual that will win out of 20 possible,Its about formulating a wager that will cover more possible outcomes in case your 1 out of 20 dosent finish in the top 3.Or if you like you can follow the herd and try to foolishly wager on on one and theres always next year.Every year 20 owners want to run their colts in a mile and a quarter race, the question is do all 20 of their steeds want to run in such a race also?