The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Trivia question: Which prep race has had the most impact on the Kentucky Derby over the past five years? If you guessed the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, or any of the other "major" preps, you would be wrong. The answer is the Tampa Bay Derby.

Since 2006, the Tampa Bay Derby, which only became a grade II race last year, has produced two Kentucky Derby winners and a horse that finished third. Street Sense, who won the 2006 Tampa Bay Derby before going on to the Blue Grass Stakes, started the streak. In 2009, Musket Man won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby before going on to finish third in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. And in 2010, Super Saver finished a close third in Tampa's premier race, moved onto the Arkansas Derby, and then pulled an upset on the first Saturday in May.

Because of its timing on the calendar, the Tampa Bay Derby is not the final prep for Derby hopefuls, but its recent history says it can be a meaningful race. Along with the San Felipe at Santa Anita, it highlights the 3-year-old action this weekend. Let's take a look at both races.

Tampa Bay Derby

Three of the top four finishers from the Sam Davis return including the winner, Battle Hardened, as well as Spring Hill Farm, yet another new shooter from the barn of Todd Pletcher. It's a good betting race, though I'm not expecting a 43-1 shot like last year to come in.

I have to think that Spring Hill Farm will run well for Pletcher. It's his stakes debut, but he shouldn't have any trouble making the lead and his first two races suggest that he's a top-class 3-year-old. He's a Smart Strike colt that got started late (May 12 foal), but hasn't missed a beat all winter since Pletcher took him to Palm Meadows. I would be surprised if he wasn't a factor and will certainly include in all my wagering exotics.

That said, I am going to play Take Charge Indy on top (even with the ice-cold Borel on him). This colt has been highly-regarded from day one, breaking his maiden by 6 1/2 lengths in his debut and running a good second in the grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity. He was off the board in two grade I starts to complete his season, but he didn't run poorly in either one. His first start on dirt in the BC Juvenile was a solid fifth. He started the year off with a very good second-place effort against El Padrino, who of course came back to win the Risen Star and is a top Derby contender. He earned a 109 Bris Speed Figure for that performance, the best of this field-by far. Post 10 doesn't bother me too much because the horse is versatile.

I'm also going to use Battle Hardened, who really ran a professional race in the San Davis while being stuck on the inside most of the way, and longshot Cozzetti. Just a hunch on Cozzetti, mainly for the fact that he ran his best race in his only dirt start. Plus, if you go back to my blog last week, Romans told me this horse trains as well as any of his 3-year-olds. He just hasn't put it all together yet.

San Felipe

This race will tell us a lot about the top West Coast horses. Even with the loss of Out of Bounds and Fed Biz (who is probably going to the Sunland Derby now), it's a contentious field of 10. You can really make a strong case for almost all of them.

I'm going to give Liaison another shot. His Robert Lewis was a clunker from the start, as he was rank before losing the rider when clipping heels. Baffert is tossing it, and so am I. Baffert worked the horse three times since then, with his goal to get him to relax better early. The blinkers come off and I think you'll see a different horse this time. Remember, he was a grade I winner last year at this distance.

Not sure what to make of Bodemeister; he might be a freak. But I'll take a pass on him since he is jumping way up against much classier horses. I'm also going to use Midnight Transfer and Empire Way. I'm not sure how Midnight Transfer will do in his first try at two turns, but he trains like a horse that won't have a problem getting 1 1/16 miles. He trains over the track and has two straight wins there.

Empire Way impressed me the way he finished in the Robert Lewis, a race that nobody else was finishing in. The pace might be pretty quick here with Bodemeister and others, so it might set up for him.

Good luck this weekend. Who do you guys like?

158 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Draynay

Blingo went from a Maiden win to a G1 race and finished 2 lengths back after getting slammed at the gate and having to fight through a wall of horses.  A better trip and some early speed and he may surprise.  His bullet works impress and he should improve 2nd time out at 2 turns.

08 Mar 2012 12:48 PM
KHATinAround

I posted this on the old column but this looks like the place for it...

TBD - Battle Hardened

Swale - Ever So Lucky

San Felipe - Bodemeister (Bajarano jumped off Liason for Bode) Midnight Transfer, Creative Cause.

(Gotta support my RTTR horses)

Draynay vs KY VET

Full race card, first Saturday in May, Churchill Downs.

That way we can watch, keep score, and maybe make a few $$. Those are my picks. Good luck all!

08 Mar 2012 12:58 PM
Point Given

Baffert's Exacta(Bode & Liaison).

08 Mar 2012 1:02 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bodemeister, the substitute teacher could school them all, but I also like Midnight Transfer and Empire Way in a wide open race. I think Creative Cause could run big also. If anyone else sneaks in there then that's the way it goes. I'd box the four every which way but lose. I have to go with Spring Hill Farm at Tampa WP.

08 Mar 2012 1:09 PM
Carlos in Cali

Jason,now that Prospective drew an inside post instead of being parked on the outside like he was in his last 2 starts you're getting off of him?.. please explain. I see him and Take Charge Indy getting the right kind of trip in here.

08 Mar 2012 1:26 PM
Bob from Boston

Nice article.  Looking forward to reading it.

08 Mar 2012 1:40 PM
El Kabong

Jason,

This race(TBD) is packed with talent. I could see all three of your picks mentioned moving on, win, place or show to another prep race and the Derby. Love the lurking potential of Take Charge Indy. That was a big effort last out in light of what El Padrino did with his next out.I give Battle Hardened the edge over Spring Hill Farm because he has run over the quirky surface and prevailed. I think it's between these two but the Todd Factor is always hard to overlook. I'll have to play a super on this one and even that doesn't look to lucrative. But this looks like a great race. Perspective, Golden Ticket or your mention Cozzetti could bump up the value if they get the show.

The more I look at the Sam Felipe, the more I get confused. Do I dare resort to the Jockey Jump for clues? Rosario picks creative cause over empire way and midnight T, who Espinoza will ride instead of Groovin S. Bejarano, who has been on them all for Baffert, picks Bode but how many times have I seen Martin Garcia prevail for Baffert in circumstances like these. The room is spinning again. That did not help. Good  luck here, I can get a toe hold so I'm out. I'll root for Empire Way and leave it at that.

08 Mar 2012 2:04 PM
Bob from Boston

Empire Way and Liaison box.

Battle Hardened/Take Charge Indy box.

I am also taking the under (5th) on which race Draynay will have to resort to begging from patrons at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday.

08 Mar 2012 2:12 PM
Jason Shandler

Carlos: It's a fair point. I like Prospective and will probably find a place for him in exotics. yes, the 1 post scared me off, and I like TCI more in this spot. This surely means that he will win. I know nothing.

08 Mar 2012 2:20 PM
trackjack

Sitting in the airport with a cold rain coming down, can't wait to get to Tampa.  Will celebrate my birthday Saturday with my son at the Tampa Bay Derby.

 Agree with you Jason, can't get off Take Charge Indy to win.   Will  box him with Spring Hill Farm and Pretensious? for ex.

San Felipe:  tough, competitive race.  Will box Bodemeister, Empire Way and Creative Cause with the 'meister to win.

Enjoy TB on Sunday Jason and good luck this weekend.  We'll be doing some flats fishing Sunday. I'm blessed.

Good Luck to everyone.

08 Mar 2012 2:26 PM
trackjack

Prospective not Pretensious.

08 Mar 2012 2:32 PM
Jason Shandler

Have a good trip Trackjack. Hope you have fun both days. I'll be doing my spring training thing on Saturday.

08 Mar 2012 2:46 PM
josh

San Felipe

Bode

Midnight Transfer

Creative Cause

Tampa Bay Derby

Cozzeti

Take Charge Indy

Spring Hill Farm

Good luck to all!

08 Mar 2012 2:57 PM
Pine_Bluff_987

Midnight Transfer

08 Mar 2012 3:13 PM
Smoking Baby

 Prospective in the Tampa Bay Derby and Creative Cause in the San Felipe (I know I know...No good odds but those are who I think will win).  The race I'm really interested in is the Gulfstream Park Handicap.  Who wins it folks?  Jackson Bend, Mucho Macho Man or Tackleberry?  Nice quality 6 horse field for this race.  I wish we could get some good fields like that out here more often.

08 Mar 2012 3:17 PM
Sam Santschi

#4 seems perfect draw for Midnight Transfer.  Should get a great position and then we will see how good he really is. Like Battle Hardened, but as the late Dave Feldman used to say, he might be a "slowie".  He needs to keep improving alot.

08 Mar 2012 3:25 PM
Carlos in Cali

Prospective finally gets a ground saving post(1),so he's the one to beat along with Take Charge Indy who ran a good 2nd to El Padrino in his comeback.These 2 are the proven class of the field,I'll key them on top and use the improving Battle Hardened for third w/Cozzeti rounding-out the exotics. Because of the Pletcher-factor the unproven and hyped horse Spring Hill Farm will get overbet bigtime.I think he's up on the pace for 6f then throws-in the towel.

Speaking of Pletcher: Does anyone know why Thunder Moccasin is not going in the Swale?.. Injury or did they change their minds and will stretch him out for his next race?..

08 Mar 2012 4:16 PM
Paula Higgins

San Felipe

Bodemeister

Liason

Mdinight Transfer

Gulf Stream Park

Mucho Macho Man (I hope)

08 Mar 2012 4:19 PM
Stevebiscuit

I haven't "handicapped" the San Felipe yet, but if had to make a guess based on memory I'm gonna say Liaison wins with Blingo, Empire Way, and Rousing Sermon rounding out the super. Bodemeister may hang on for 3rd or 4th, but I wouldn't expect a win.

08 Mar 2012 4:44 PM
Draynay

Tampa Derby looks easy.  I have to agree with Jason Take Charge Indy looks much the best here.  He will sit off Spring Hill Farm and may let a speed duel happen in front of him with Cajun Charlie fighting to get in the mix.  From the 12 post you can bet he will be flying.  Take Charge Indy has been in the big races and this is a easy one for him and should take advantage.  I see Julien and Contreras fighting it out for place and show.  The exacta box of the day belongs to Zagora and Denomination.  Denomination picks up Julien and loves Tampa so watch out.

08 Mar 2012 4:47 PM
Slew

Palm Beach Stakes on Sunday, Dullahan makes his 2012 debut, but I have to take Howe Great who already has a race under him even though he's going from Gate 1.

GF 'Cap...As much as I love Jackson Bend, I think Mucho Macho Man has the edge with post position and sheer size...but you never know what JB has up his sleeve.(saddle cloth)

Swale-don't know why, but I'm going with Seve.

Tampa Bay..I have to stick with an AP Indy, Take Charge, Indy and Prospective.

San Felipe-Empire Way.

In all honesty, I'm not really going to do my picking until I see the horses in the post parade.  So until I do..my picks are simply my favorites.

Draynay...you shock me.  You've done a 180...really thinking out your choices and offering valid reasons.  Maybe you're a clone...but a very good, well-thought out clone, and I'm liking this new page you've turned.  

08 Mar 2012 5:14 PM
Mike Monarchos

I like a Take Charge Indy/ Battle Hardened/Prospective exacta box at Tampa. The latter two have trips over the Tampa track which helps.

I hope Bodemeister is a freak in San Felipe. I like him over Creative Causeand Empire Way.

08 Mar 2012 5:23 PM
josh

Carlos,

Bay Shore is next for Thunder Moccasin, I would not be surprised if the owners got derby fever and tried him in a route race.

08 Mar 2012 5:46 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

I am calling it "SEPARATION SATURDAY" not only on the real derby trail but the road to the roses too. This weekend is gonna separate the boys from the men, we all have the known horses Union Rags(AUTO WORKER)Hansen(The Great White HOPE)El Padrino(The Godfather)Mr Valeski(the Science teacher)I'll Have Another(me too) Looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out. Love this time of year. Spring Hill Farm puts the Pletcher barn back in the mix, the San Felipe is like a who's who's of everybodies short list of up and comers, as i have read on this blog pretty much a case for all ten. I think Liaison rebounds in a big way, Bode carrying the name is alot of pressure even though he might not know it. Thanks again Jason and all the bloggers for there insights taking notes on all.

08 Mar 2012 5:50 PM
Rolling Thundar

Ok, Maybe I will get the hang of this, and Catch a little beginners Luck.

Tampa Bay Derby:::

$6.00 Win on Ravelo's Boy

$4.00 Ex on RB and Prospective

$2.00 Tri, RB, Pro, Golden Ticket

San Felipe:::

$4.00 Win American Act

$2.00 Ex AA, Empire Way

$2.00 Tri, AA, EW, Bodemeister

08 Mar 2012 5:57 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I just smokem the peace pipe and got a vision: the white horse will not win big race first Saturday in May.

08 Mar 2012 6:13 PM
Draynay

Slew, unlike everyone else I give you the pick and WHY.  Anyone can pick a horse but telling us why you picked that horse over the others is what is really important.  Most people have no idea how to handicap a race.

08 Mar 2012 6:47 PM
KY VET

I thought CREATIVE CAUSE was in the san felipe....jason didnt mention him....how do you talk about the san f. and not mention creative cause? what am i missing?

08 Mar 2012 7:58 PM
KY VET

By FAR, take charge indy ran the fastest of any in the tampa race.....its not even close! Repeat wins easy.........No surprise DRAYNAY(beginner) loves him.........only problem is.......THE HORSE IS A BAD BET!

08 Mar 2012 8:02 PM
Ranagulzion

Jason your observation about the Tampa Bay Derby as a Kentucky Derby Prep is quite accurate. It tends to be very competitive each year and the graduates from this race get toughened up and well seasoned, with room for another race to make them razor sharp for the Kentucky Derby.

The Tampa Bay Derby this year is again a very knotty affair. However I'm picking Spring Hill Farm to go wire to wire with Battle Hardened and Prospective, in that order, outgunning Take Charge Indy for the minor placings.

Carlos my friend,

Take Charge Indy is a bridesmaid type. He hasn't learnt how to win and doesn't have a shot in the Kentucky Derby.

08 Mar 2012 8:23 PM
Ranagulzion

Tapizar should wire the Razorback field at Oaklawn and Trinniberg should also wire the Swale field at Gulfstream. Oh, BTW, Howe Great will go wire to wire in the Palm Beach. Its gonna be a front runner's weekend.

08 Mar 2012 8:46 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Jason,

In the Tampa Derby I'm all over Prospective as he had a wide trip throughout in the Sam Davis.  Rail is winning at 17% clip, and coming from off the pace at 37%.  I wouldn't leave off the two favorites, and Battle Hardened just may acquit his win as well.

Creative Cause is my pick in the SF.  His class speaks for itself and the 7F distance was too short in his last race.  Added distance would lead me to believe he will win handily with the Baffert pair underneath.

08 Mar 2012 9:02 PM
CW

what the TV situation for the san felipe? will tvg have it?

08 Mar 2012 9:10 PM
Coldfacts

SAN FELIPE:

The SA strip in known for producing fast times.  On some days claimers record times that make G1 horses elsewhere look like claimers. What role will speed play in the San Felipe? Which of the ten colts is the fastest?  Is there any chance for closers? I consider all the aforementioned questions pertinent. I am of the opinion that speed will play a major role in the race. It is very likely that one of the fastest colts in the field will win. It is unlikely a closer will.

CLOSERS: Empire way, Rousing Sermon and Blingo: These colts have no chance of winning and can stay home as the coslt with tactical speed will not be retreating in the stretch. It is unlikely that the 2011 fractions will be repeated that was Premier Pegasus run by the leaders as if they were glued to the ground.  

MID PACK: Bodemeister, Grooving Solo and Midnight Transfer: Bodemeister is the buzz colt and regarded Speedy Bob’s best Derby hope. His last two recorded works were not consistent with a Speedy Bob trained horse. In any event who is he going to run by? Welter Weight and Stirred Up will be in their stalls when San Felipe is being decided. He might get a minor share. Midnight Transfer broke his maiden on in his fourth start and won his last race by a HD against an unknown colt. Has not been beyond 61/2F and has chosen a bad time to try.  Grooving Solo was a disqualified 3rd in the Bob Lewis. Mr. Cho has removed the blinkers that should not have been added as the colt only victory was archived without them. Has been working lights out and is reunited with the jockey hat navigated him to his maiden victory. No Bob and John colt should be working 57 4/5.  This colt should be a dead closer be on his pedigree. If he is held up in mid pack and unbridled on the turn that 57 can take him to an upset victory. He will be placed on all my wagers.

STALKERS: Liaison and Creative Cause: Both colts have very average times for 81/2F. Liasion best time at the distance is 1:42 4/5. Creative Cause best time at the distance is 1:42 3/5.  I do not see these colts running much faster and San Felipe will be faster than 1:42. Liasion defeated Rousing Sermon for his last two victories. Rousing Sermon closed from another zip code in those races to fall short by 1/2L and NK respectively. He will receive no such margin on Saturday. Creative Cause  two slow efforts over 81/2F is not encouraging. His last victory was over Drill who was sucking wind at the end of the San Vincent. Would Drill stand a chance in the San Felipe? If the answer is No! Then I will take a pass on Creative Cause and wager him for a minor spot.

LEADER: Tiz point and American Act: I must be crazy to think that a colt making his dirt debut is likely to be on the lead in this field. I am a fan of Tiznow and he had tactical speed. The dam of this colt was sired by Storm Bird and she is out of a Secretariat mare. She could be considered Storm Cat’s sister since he was sired by Strom Bird and out of Secretariat mare. This colt has been either on or very close to the lead in4 of his 5 starts. He has a dirt pedigree and is an unknown quantity. Mr. Gomez would not be using this colt to get back to full fitness. Consequently, he must be an interesting outsider with speed and pedigree. I would prefer American Act to be held up mid pack and ask to run at the top of the stretch but the field appears to have no clear leader and he is the fastest in the field. He has the pedigree for the distance and if he can rate kindly for his rider he will be very dangerous.

My $20 exactor box: (American Act, Grooving Solo, Creative Cause, Tiz point, Liaison ) This represent a combination of Speed, Stamina, Experience and Hope.

08 Mar 2012 10:56 PM
Rolling Thundar

Chief Picawinna:::

Love that Handle, or Name or Whatever.........Cracked Me Up to Pieces....Couldn't Quit Laughing. Still Can't...Hope You Hang around for Awhile....Would Love to Get Your Insite..........

Draynay:::

My read on Slew:::

Was that He was Giving You a Complement. Maybe You took it as Sarcastic....I don't Know the difference You Two might have..

Funny though...Not All of Us Have that Intellecual Ability, That You Have, To Truly give an Anilises of Our Picks......The Insight was Given to Me in Jason's last Blog. About Going with My Gut Feeling.

Perhaps We shouldn't be so Harsh, on those of Us, who are only Mild, and Meek Wagerer's...

If You're Wisdom is Correct, then You will Earn More Respect.....

And Speaking of Respect.....

KY Vet:::

You Are a Far More Dissapointment...Than AnyOne, Else on This Blog........Noobie, Rookie, Novice, Player, Fan, Handicapper, or Expert.......

You Offer a Challenge, and Yet, You Don't UpHold that Challenge....

You throw Down a Gantlet....to Draynay......

As a Knight, He Picked it Up.....

And Then took out The Glove of His Sash........And SLAPPED YOU in the FACE........

Respond Sir, ....Lest We All Think of You as The Coward........

08 Mar 2012 11:03 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY,

Everyone all ready knows how you handicap a race... 1) Spend $7.00 for a Racing Form 2) Open the Form up and find the LOWEST price chalk horses you can dig up and tell us all how they are the fastest thing going (Uncle Mo 2011 BC Classic or should I say Uncle Slow going around 2 turns)(Quality Road BC Classic 2010, you know horse needs a super rock hard highway aka Gulfstream to look like a world beater)(Cal Nation the horse you said is faster then The Factor, lol lord that one still tops them all)By the way has Cal Nation won a allow condition yet?? Finally 3) If its trained by Pletcher load up even more cause the only thing better then 4/5 is 3/5 in your mind!

09 Mar 2012 1:06 AM
furlongs

Here is how Draynay gives us the winner and why:

I am smart you people are dumb... FASTEST HORSE EVER, NEXT TRIPLE CROWN WINNER, BETTER 2 year old season the SECRETARIAT!! Wake up people this is why Uncle Mo will role in the Triple Crown, 6 months later...DID you see his last race and that beyer figure? Wake up Uncle Mo BC Classic winner by daylight! LOL your a instant classic man!!

09 Mar 2012 1:10 AM
Matthew W

Take Charge Indy should be tough this Sat...Dullahan in fine hands and his trainer is high on him--Romans taking the Animal Kingdom route with him: turf-to synthetic-to Derby---I like him and also like Coalport in the Palm Beach...at Santa Anita, a lot depends on whether Carava sends American Act---that is a fine animal and he'll likely be in front--if he doesn't go, then Baffert's Bodemiester will gun, and he will probably beat Creative Cause from there, and I expect Empire Way to be rolling--with pace help, I like Empire to blow them away--even with an easy lead, if Brice Blanc can work out a good trip from out there--and that's a big if--but I think Empire Way is very live this Sat, I think Rosario made the wrong choice! I think the one-two from the Robert Lewis, I'll Have Another and Empire Way, are the two best from out here, and I think they are both top-notch horses--and while everybody is talking about Pletcher and Baffert--Harrington and O'Neil may have a big say in the Triple Crown--namely The Derby for O'Neil, and The Belmont for Harrington!

09 Mar 2012 1:57 AM
Matthew W

Right now my horses rate: Four at the top for me, that is, four horses that I really like: Hansen, Union Rags, Empire Way, I'll Have Another...Hansen would rate #1 based on his winning around two turns, turning back Creative Cause then out dueling Union Rags under duress! Now he rates? #1! Although not sure he's bred for the 1 1/4, there's too much to like about Union Rags--he looks the part and runs like it, too! Empire Way will get the distance, and he has a big kick--I understand he's very intelligent--he's bred, big and now smart? I'll Have Another won me over this past Sat--the between races work was a thing of beauty, he shaded 11 sec coming home, and his ears were moving front to back--he was waiting for the word--if he can harness his game like that, he will be very hard to beat! I believe the Feb 4th Robert Lewis was legit, and key!

09 Mar 2012 2:08 AM
JayJay

Draynay : Here's my analysis for today 03/08 late P4 at Golden Gate fields.  I'm singling the 5 horse cause Frankie Alvarado is the only jockey that can beat Baze at GG.  2nd leg : I'm using 6 & 7 because it adds to 13 and I like 13.  3rd leg : I'm using 3 and 6 because I like the name of the 3 horse and again Alvarado on the 6 horse.  The last leg : I got tired of handicapping so I played them all.   Guess what ??

www.facebook.com/photo.php

LOL, you think posting your analysis means you know how to handicap ??  How many times have you posted your "pick and WHY" on here and tell me how many times you were right ?  You spend all day and night analyzing a horse that will run as chalk.  Yeah, you're a real handicapper lol.  

I handicap races to make money, not to come back here and say "I PICKED A 3-5 HORSE AND IT WON!!  I'M THE KING OF THE VILLAGE!"  Damn you're a joke.

09 Mar 2012 2:13 AM
JayJay

CONGRATS to Big Momma Z!  A gorgeous colt with a star on his forehead.  Now I can relax.

Jason : are you going to write a blog about the new mama ?

09 Mar 2012 3:20 AM
Pedigree Ann

Last year's top 2yo have demonstrated that they are real racehorses, not just early maturing sorts who used that advantage to beat their fellows. I will stick with Creative Cause until he gives me reason to get off; after all, his sire peeked at 3 and his dam didn't run her best until age 5, so he is unlikely to be that 'early maturing' sort. More likely he wants a true distance of ground as he grows up, so wins at 1-turn and even an extended 8f are not necessary for him.

09 Mar 2012 9:31 AM
2:24

trackjack, looking forward to seeing you tomorrow.  i'll be in a box, think it is numbered around 50.

09 Mar 2012 10:44 AM
Slew

Dray....it's an entirely new you.  Are you certain Gun Bow isn't writing under your name?  You haven't gone with the chalk, you haven't demeaned any trainers or horses, your reasoning is valid, and you're becoming a delight.  Thanks for the new you.

I'm no handicapper.  I just know what I like based on what I see.  If my favorite is the favorite, I'm more likely to go for the exacta or tri.  I usually consider pedigree, stride, attitude, and past performances.  I like long shots...and they pay so well.  

Good luck with the new you...it's a pleasure.

09 Mar 2012 10:55 AM
Mike Relva

Picking Blingo to win if he gets a better trip.

09 Mar 2012 11:22 AM
Forbidden Apple

Battle Hardened

Creative Cause

09 Mar 2012 12:00 PM
iceman92

blingo

09 Mar 2012 4:17 PM
JayJay

Tampa Bay Derby :

7,9,12 with 7,9,12 with 1,2,5,6,7,9,10,12

$20 P/S on the 12

San Felipe :

7 with 2,3,8,10 with 2,3,8,10

3,7 with 3,7,10 with 3,5,7,10

Have to see how Gomez does in the first few races to see if he's really back then I'll have a look at that Tiznow horse he's riding in this race.

09 Mar 2012 4:51 PM
Draynay

Castellano I am following you to Tampa and betting it all on you.  Let's hope you have a big day !!!

09 Mar 2012 8:38 PM
Aaron McC

So here we have two races -- one with horses who need to show they have talent, and one with horses who already have shown their talent -- both of which lack a true standout, that is, now that Take Charge Indy is out.  In the Sam Davis, I like Prospective, given his poor trip last out, and running style, but I also want to see the forms of Chief Energy and Cozzetti.  Maybe Spring Hill Farm inherits the class of the race, from a speed figure perspective, but he doesnt yet seem to tower, and I might pay to see recent form fold.  

In the San Vicente, I wonder if the need for graded earnings is the angle...  I'll take the Bodemeister over Midnight Transfer and Creative Cause (can't get past him). I like Empire Way with all the speed here, but Ill like him better on another track.  Not sure how I feel about Blingo ...

Tough races to figure out, no doubt.

09 Mar 2012 11:38 PM
Bob from Boston

Chief Energy wins the Tampa Bay Derby at 11-1!  Battle Hardened 2nd.

10 Mar 2012 12:30 AM
Bob from Boston

Quick Wit for the win.  10-1.

10 Mar 2012 12:35 AM
KY VET

The most idiotic move ever......not wanting to run in one of the weakest grade 2 races ive ever seen! TAKE CHARGE INDY. opts for the fl.derby? They will get what they deserve.....

10 Mar 2012 1:25 AM
thomas

San felipe: I got to go with Empire Way i feel a speed duel will set him hopefully he gets the jump on Creative Cause. Ill use Empire Way and Bodemeister in an exacta box.

Tampa Bay Derby: Now since Take Charge Indy is out. im going to use Fox Rules and Battle Hardened in an exacta box. Im using Fox Rules because i like the way he ran in the sam f davis and being at 99-1 and coming off a layoff he only got beat 6-4 lengths and he did beat state of play who went off as the favorite. Also the fact that Michael Ferraro is running him in the TBD, which makes me think why would he run the horse in the TBD if he didn't think he'd run big? well will find out tomorrow.

10 Mar 2012 2:40 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. Shandler,

“It's his stakes debut, but he shouldn't have any trouble making the lead and his first two races suggest that he's a top-class 3-year-old.”

The post above is open ended. However, I suspect you meant shortly after the gates open. Spring Hill Farm’s fastest half mile is 47 3/5 on a fast track and 47 1/5 on a sloppy track.  There are several 46 horses in the field and if they show speed, Spring Hill Farm has not chance of making the lead until half the race has been completed. This is assuming he is good enough to make the lead and this I doubt in spite of him being a member of the dominant Todd Squad.

“I would be surprised if he wasn't a factor and will certainly include in all my wagering exotics.”

Spring Hill Farm is nice lightly race colt but has done nothing to suggest that he will not finish off the board in the Tampa Bay Derby. His 1:24 2/5 clocking for his 7F debut victory is average at best. His follow win on a sloppy track was no better. I would not be surprised if he did not hit the board as he will have to make significant improvement to win the TBD.

The entire Tama Bay Derby field is running for second if Tell All You Know brings his ‘A’ game. This colt appears to be about 17 hands. He would have broken the Tama Bay 5F track record if he was not eased. When a 17 hands May foal breaks hi maiden in 57 3/5 running wide on the turn and then eased, the animal is a monster. His 45 2/5 half mile was achieved effortlessly.  To prove his maiden win was no fluke he returned to easily win 7F in 1:24 clocking a half mile in 44 3/5. If this colt can be rated in a 47 half mile there is no telling what he will do to this field.

NB: Chestnut horses from the Storm Cat sire line are dangerous.

10 Mar 2012 8:25 AM
nickie

I'm w/ Beantown Bob....Chief Energy...barn is very clever, and w/ alotta options he goes here...don't miss the wedding, just hoping he's not too fresh[good luck Paco]...

10 Mar 2012 11:34 AM
johnnyk

My question about Spring Hill Farm is this-what's wrong with him? I was at the Kee. November mixed sale. We looked at him but figured he would go high and did not put him on our short list. When he went for 60k it was a surprise to say the least. With that pedigree and about to be a 3yr old he figured to bring several times that. I recall there seemed to be some issues with him. Guess we find out today if the experts were wrong.

10 Mar 2012 11:37 AM
Bob from Boston

Roamin Robin in the 3rd at Gulfstream.  Draynay, bet your things off.

10 Mar 2012 12:53 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

With TCI out, I am forced to take another look at the TBD. I like your colt. He looks strong on the front end. Cajun Charlie is out too far and if he uses too much on the deep sand of TB running as if this was a bull ring like DeD, he'll be done in 6F's. This track tends to favor horses up on the lead and close to it. This guy could cause trouble if he doesn't hook up with Cajun Charlie. I''ll put him in the mix but I like Battle Hardened down the lane. This track also favors those who have run it, and know it. One exception though,  I think Spring HIll Farms will do fine here. He has done his training on the deep slow surface of Palm Meadows like Battle Hardened. I'll toss Prospective in there with those three for a Tribox and take a shot at a super with those 3 under BH getting the win. NIce call on this colt, Tell All You Know. Good luck.

10 Mar 2012 1:33 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

You're picking Blingo to win the San Felipe IF he gets a better trip? When are you going to know that buddy? (LOL)

KY VET,

I agree with you 100% about the decision of the Take Charge Indy connections. If good sense prevails they may swith from the Florida Derby to perhaps the Lexington, Bluegrass or some race like that to get into the Derby.

Coldfacts,

You will be eating crow about Spring Hill Farm. Mark my words.

10 Mar 2012 2:28 PM
longwaytomay

Jason,

Hooh Why at 7-1 You should jump on it. Trust me.

10 Mar 2012 5:01 PM
Paula Higgins

JayJay, the Queen has a beautiful 130 pound colt!!! He is adorable with the star on his forehead and dots on his back feet. It will be great to see Rachel's colt and Zenyatta's colt go head to head. Something to look forward to. Well, I got Mucho Macho Man. Hopefully, Bodemeister will come through. I dont't think the Derby winner is throught Tampa Bay this year Jason.

10 Mar 2012 6:37 PM
Pedigree Ann

Well, Paula, MY queen (Our Majestic Cat) had her filly a month ago and it is growing like a weed. Is now more bay than her dark brown mum. My first grandfoal. I'll go toe-to-toe with you in the 'thrilled!!' department.<grin>

11 Mar 2012 10:56 AM
KY VET

nice alw win by prospective.....wasnt creative cause entered in the san felipe? 2 to 1? geez! The horse is good people! And he will run even better next time.........

11 Mar 2012 11:49 AM
papillon

if the derby trail runs through tampa this year, it took a wrong turn somewhere and ended up in BFE.

11 Mar 2012 2:47 PM
JayJay

Is Draynay still dodging KY VET ?  Or did he accept the challenge and now KY VET is trying to find a way not to play ?

How about this coming Friday's Gulftream card, the first 5 races.  Pick a horse in each race and post how much you would play them.  Maximum of $100 W or P or S.  The one that has the most winning picks and most money after the 5th race gets to go on vacation for 2 weeks (no blogging), the loser should do a self imposed ban for 2 weeks.

Your picks should be posted on the latest blog by Thursday NOON EST.

11 Mar 2012 8:07 PM
LAZMANNICK

The Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective’s time of 1.43.35 was the second fastest ever for the race (Street Sense had the fastest) and though each quarter was slower than the previous one, at least this guy stepped up and showed grit and determination in the stretch when every other competitor, except Cozzetti, lost ground in the final call.  Jockey Louis Contrares, the leading rider at Woodbine in 2011, showed his talent when he moved Prospective from the rail about midway in the back stretch and took him outside.  They made the lead midway in the turn with Spring Hill Farm breathing down his neck, then showed guts and determination when straining to stay in front through the stretch run to the wire.  Battle Hardened, the Sam F. Davis winner who was gaining Derby support was no threat in spite of being within two lengths of the lead at the ¾ pole.  

Prospective continued to show improvement in his third start on dirt (all at Tampa) since his bust in his first race on dirt in the BC Juvenile.  Before the BC race he ran exclusively at Woodbine on the Polytrak, where he won the Grey Stakes after breaking his maiden on that surface and running second in his first race on turf.  His Grey Stakes win was against all Woodbine based horses in a race that usually has one or two US shippers, so after that and his BC bust, it was difficult to gauge him.  I like the manner in which he has shown continuous improvement this year and after the TB Derby I would think that now he has to be taken seriously, at least as a possible Derby contender.

The San Felipe was arguably the deepest Derby prep so far this year.  Creative Cause proved once and for all that he is king in California and if Feb Biz wants that title then he is going to have to wrest it from him and I say good luck to that.  When Creative Cause drifted wide coming into the stretch and wouldn’t come over it was more like he didn’t change his lead until late and then when he did, he took off and was a worthy winner.  His wide run in the stretch is something to think about, much as Union Rags’ straying caused many concerns, but I don’t think it will be a future problem and the fact that he finished strongly and was rated in the fifth position for much of the race and not further back was encouraging.  Patience is a virtue and if he runs in a similar position in the Derby he should be in a good spot when they turn for home.  Then, if he shows the same acceleration in the stretch, he is going to be very tough.  CC was also giving the 2nd and 3rd place finishers 5 pounds and his individually timed final 5/16ths was in a very good time of 30.31.  CC should improve off this and will be ready in that first Saturday in May.

Bodemeister will improve off this race.  In watching the head-on stretch run I was amazed at how much he came out in the stretch.  I thought the jock was purposely steering him over so he could see CC coming, but Bob Baffert said that he was tiring and it caused him to drift.  I would like Bodemeister more if he would rate a little further off the pace.  The Derby early fractions are going to be extremely tough for the first wave of horses and conserving energy will be of utmost importance.  He has to improve to defeat CC because I believe that CC is going to show even more improvement as we get closer to the TC races.

The horse that impressed me and one I am going to tab for later was Midnight Transfer.  This was his first route race after five lifetime sprints.  He closed nicely and though he hung a bit in the end and the two favorites gained a length on him in the final 16th, what I liked was that other than Liaison who he was well in front of, he was pulling away from the rest of the field, and once again in a race which arguably had the deepest field for a prep so far this year.  One to watch IMO.

In the Palm Beach, Dullahan, the half brother to Derby winner Mine That Bird, made his long awaited 2012 debut and IMO didn’t disappoint.  Sure he was defeated, but the horse that defeated him was bred to be a turf star in N/A, and other than finishing second and then breaking his maiden on dirt, Howe Great has raced exclusively on turf ever since and is undefeated on the surface.  Howe Great’s sire, Hat Trick, was basically a miler and a Group One winner in Japan and Hong Kong.   Howe Great is from the first of his sire’s first two racing crops and not many of them have raced yet so it is difficult to ascertain what if any distance limitations we’ll see from him though he has strong distance influences from his sire, Sunday Silence, but not from his dam, Tricky Code.  Howe Great’s dam, Ginger Wolf was bred in South Africa and has limited data from both a racing and progeny standpoint,

I was really impressed with Dullahan.  In his first race in more than four months and coming off a minor setback in his training, he rated kindly for the jock, made a move on the far turn that looked like a winning move until he had to fan out four wide.  The winner hugged the inside and took advantage of this strategy, and though Dullahan was closing on him in the stretch, there is no way he was going to catch the winner, not when the final 8th was in 11.74 seconds and the final 3/8ths in a solid 35.03 seconds.  The final time of 1.46.56 was encouraging considering that the best three year time at this distance on this track was 1.45.1 seconds.  With regards to that move on the far turn, I wonder if Kent D. would have kept him behind the front runners until they turned into the stretch instead of going way wide, then let him explode by them, if the outcome would have been different.  Either way, I still think this guy has to be kept under consideration.  The main question, of course, is how he will take to dirt in a top G1 race.  He ran a nice fourth in the BC Juvenile, coming from almost last, but was no threat to the top three, who just happen to be three of the top Derby favorites at this time.

11 Mar 2012 9:58 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

You were probably right in your analysis of Spring Hill Farm or he didn't take to the Tampa Bay surface. I'm not sure but his effort was quite disappointing to me.

Tell me your views on the possibility of Trinniberg spicing up the Kentucky derby picture. He's a lightgning fast colt that cruises (relaxes) in splits of 22 x 45 for a half mile. He appears to be a very classy sprinter BUT his pedigree does have some serious stamina influences that could make him a "mystery/puzzle" in the Derby field: one with the potential to destroy other front running types while escaping like a helium ballon into the sky (except from Union Rags' stretch drive, of course). What do you think Bro?  

12 Mar 2012 3:30 AM
the_wiz

Jason, as one of the guilty ones who called you out for kissing up to Repole, I like Our Entourage as well. I'll make some money off him somewhere. I also like Howe Great as an overlooked talent. I'll cash on him later too.

the_wiz 08 Mar 2012 11:35 AM

Didn't cash much on Howe Great, I played a $20 straight trifecta of 1-3-6 for 426.00 but hey it's money in the bank. The 6 horse looked fabulous on the track b4 the race so I took a shot.

The Tampa Bay Derby treated me better as I had a $10 exacta box of 1,2,6,8 and $10 straight exactas the 1 over the 2 and 6 each time paying $93.00. A $3 tri box of 1,2,6,8 paid over $900 too.

Prospective just looked like the best and he had some mild issues like the 11 hole last out to add to his appeal. McPeek's Golden Ticket ran right with Ever So Lucky when he was going good and that was a sprint where he actually gained ground in the stretch, McPeeks horses rapidly improve which he did in their second route usually at 1 1/16 and this would be his next try at that distance and third off the bench. Good breeding and added stamina with Deputy Minister underneath, add a couple of nice works leading up to this race and you have a live horse at almost 13/1.

Ditto for Cozzetti the #6 horse. Nice breeding and a great trainer in Dale Romans this one ran  behind Howe Great who I have said I liked prior to his Palm Beach win and Lucky Chappy who I loved and mentioned here for the El Camino Real and just got nosed out in that one. A bullet work on 3/4 at GP and 8/1 odds greatly added to his appeal.

As for the #8 Ravelo's Boy he ran only 2 noses behind Prospective last out and had some mild trouble. At 18/1 I had to include him in my exotics. He ran well in this but just wasn't good enough to hit the board.

Pletcher doesn't win them all and Spring Hill Farm was getting pretty deep into his well. I didn't like Battle Hardened because he wasn't as "tested" against better or had never overcome and bad racing luck. Those two things often lead to an overbet horse especially these 3 yr olds early in the season. The best he had beaten was Prospective who I thought was the better horse in the Sam Davis anyway.

How often do you ask yourself how did that horse run so well at those odds in one of these 3 yr old preps early in the year. For draynay I know it's after every race when the odds on fave gets whipped.

It always happens and I make a point to try and identify those "longshots" who are overlooked. Last year I made alot of money off Nehro and Shackelford in these early races. I love this time of year, it's where I make my living.      

Interesting that Baffert (this ones for you draynay, go get sick) now says he didn't do much with Bode to get him cranked for the San Felipe and the next one (SA Derby) will be better. Creative Cause was ready to roll after a perfect prep and barely handled him. Here's to creative Cause going off at less than 2/1 and Bode getting overlooked a bit.

12 Mar 2012 9:54 AM
Householder

I have not seen a San Felipe like that since Sunday Silence won.  Sure like Creative Cause's jog out.  That 70 year old trainer sure is getting what he needs out of the preps.  He can now pass horses in the lane which is what he will have to do in the Derby.  That stalking speed is nice...and them boom passing a tired Union Rangs and Hansen.  Perfect.  Bring on the distance as his mom's side ran 1 3/4 marathons on turf.

12 Mar 2012 12:56 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Any handicapping contest between arch rivals Draynay and KY Vet should be held in races with full fields .The Rebel Stakes this Saturday is the logical starting point for these legendary handicapping virtuosos.Post your imaginary $100 bets in either win place and show or a combination not surpassing 100 bucks.Post your pick 1 hour before post time and have the Blogs staff update the posts that are made so we can see WHO the real maestro is.Sharpen your pencils or should I say crayons.

12 Mar 2012 4:27 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Creative Cause ran very well but he will have to beat an improved Ill Have Another and for a horse with that many races his stretch run was terrible taking so long to switch,if Bodemeister can improve he wont be caught by CC in the SAD.

12 Mar 2012 4:40 PM
Draynay

I know this will shock many but I actually like a California horse this year.  Creative Cause got some of my future Derby money.  I like the path he is taking to the Derby and I expect him to be the best coming in from the West.

Draynay 14 Feb 2012 10:27 PM

Now you know why I am a handicapping legend and you're not.

12 Mar 2012 4:42 PM
KY VET

I will take on DRAYNAY anytime! any track....but he only wants to wait a month! Its called handicapping! Lets do this !!!!! chicken little dray! All chalk against a Pro!  How does 150 at 17 to 1 look on creative cause? 1 more top 10 horse down..FED BIZ! Im looking better and better each day! And you people that think bode will improve.........WRONG! WATCH AND LEARN!

12 Mar 2012 4:59 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Draynay won a fortune on the preps this past weekend. He's still dodging KY Vet's challenge because he is too good for the likes of any other handicapper. "Dodging, Bah Humbug, nobody beats my 98% losing strategy, nobody !!!! I win at a hefty 2% and I make ny wins count !!!!!"  Really Draynay, step up to the challenge, and tell KY Vet he's not worthy or get out of town. You may as well face it (no offense) but JayJay and KY Vet are the best handicappers on this blog. If you don't respond then I'll assume that you agree with my assessment. Take the jayjay or KY Vet challenge. Either one can beat you eventhough you are a greaat handicapper.

12 Mar 2012 7:52 PM
Draynay

Keeneland has full fields and opening day is a great day to test ones handicapping skills.  Jayjay and KY VET can both submit their winners for opening day and I will send in mine.  Everyone dreams of the day they can beat a legend and I will give them their chance opening day at Keeneland.  If they wish they can join me at Keeneland and cash my winning tickets for me.

12 Mar 2012 8:35 PM
Draynay

3rd race Gulfstream  Gemologist vs. Currency Swap !

12 Mar 2012 8:45 PM
KY VET

I will take on ANYONE! FRI GUlf sounds good or the guy that said oaklawn sat.....now draynay says he likes creative cause? Why, if he liked the chalk, would he bet others? i thought rags was a cinch? no sense this guy!

12 Mar 2012 9:12 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

KY Vet bet Creative Cause at 2-1 which I wouldn't have done. I felt that my trifecta box was safer. I have to be honest, out of the 4, I wasn't sure who whould win. What it comes down to is that we both got 2-1. My 4 horse, $24, for a payoff of $73 is about the same. He took the gamble, I took the safe route. More power to him. Draynay is toast. If he goes up against KY. If you look back, KY has more knowledge about the  game. It's kind of ridiculous actually. In any particular race against anyone, Draynay has no shot.

12 Mar 2012 10:25 PM
Forbidden Apple

This is shocking to me, but I finally agree with both Draynay and KY Vet. It is now official that Baffert has nothing serious for the KY Derby. Just like dray has been saying for the past month. And I'm with KY Vet on Bodemeister, I think his San Felipe effort is going to knock him out. While I see the San Felipe as an easy effort by Creative Cause. More improvement in the SA Derby is expected. Creative Cause just needs to run well, not go all out for the win.

13 Mar 2012 9:13 AM
furlongs

DRAYNAY,

You liking a California horse in the Kentucky Derby is like a Kentucky Basketball fan filling out a March Madness bracket and putting Duke or Louisville as the winner!

13 Mar 2012 1:47 PM
furlongs

Draynay I live in Louisville and make it to Keeneland every year for the opening weekend! I would be more then happy to meet up with you and help you cash all your $1.00 - 4 horse exacta boxes!! LOL

13 Mar 2012 1:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

Dr Drunkinbum

I agree.  If Draynay goes up against KY VET, VET will totally destroy this so called Legend of the Odds On Chalk Player.  I know on Friday I'm going to need a good laugh.  Take the challenge Dray and thanking you in advance for the laugh.

13 Mar 2012 2:31 PM
Carlos in Cali

Creative Cause is a solid horse,but he was all-out in order to catch Bodemeister who according to BBaffert was weaving down the stretch because he was tired and under-trained for the race.CC's gallop out looked good because Bode' was dead-tired and the rest of the field proved to be nothing but pretenders.With Liasion and Rousing Sermon finishing together again,it proves that they're just not good enough to continue on the Derby trail,IMO. Bodemeister will be tough to beat in the SA Derby when BBaffert starts tightening the screws on him..

13 Mar 2012 2:33 PM
Draynay

Creative Cause is the best from the West but he is no Union Rags.  EL OVERRATED will be exposed in the Florida Derby and Mark V. will win the Louisiana Derby.  Union Rags is still the horse to beat in the Derby.  47 days left to get good enough to beat him.  Not going to happen.

13 Mar 2012 2:46 PM
KY VET

CARLOS......the only SCREW that needs tightening,is the one that is loose in your head if you think bode will improve.......Creative hasnt run his best yet....

13 Mar 2012 3:09 PM
Draynay

4th Race Friday at Gulfstream let me help you pick a winner.  I look for Angel Dreams to go out the the lead with Jazz hustled up on the outside to avoid being wide into the first turn.  Holiday Broad should sit right behind the speed and get a perfect trip and should be the first to pounce at the top of the stretch.  But I like the 5 for the win.  Glamour and Glory gets to stretch out again to a distance she prefers.  She broke her maiden in style at the distance and already has a win at Gulfstream.  She will be following Holiday Broad all the way around the track and should catch her at the wire.  Glamour and Glory has posted a nice work March 4 and will love getting back on turf.  100 WP on Glamour and Glory.  Good Luck.

13 Mar 2012 3:21 PM
KY VET

ok dray....pick the whole card and do the challenge......youll be back in 2 weeks. plenty of time for kee

13 Mar 2012 3:28 PM
KY VET

wrong race dray!

13 Mar 2012 3:32 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion, Trinniberg?.. if he was a route horse I'm sure he would've been 2-turns by now.I thought you knew better,my absent-minded brother.

Here's the horses I'm tossing from the TC Trail:

Everyone who finished behind CC and Bode' in the San Felipe.

Gemologist/Currency Swap- too late & too slow.

Everyone who finished behind El Padrino and Valeski in the Risen Star.

Fillies.

Everyone who finished behind Prospective and Golden Ticket in the TBDerby.

Ever So Lucky- no way!Plus he's an Indian Charlie.

Every horse running on dirt for the first time in the Derby,or any horse who's last prep will be on turf/synthetics.

Any horse Coldfacts touts- might as well throw darts.

Everyone who ran behind Hansen and My Adonis in the Gotham.

Sabercat- too late.

All the proverbial Pletcher-trained turf/synthetic horses Jason backs everyear,this year it's Our Entourage- stick to grass.

Horses prepping in Arkansas,including the Rebel winners Castaway/Secret Circle- too slow.

Everyone who ran behind Union Rags and News Pending in the FOY- slow sprinters.

Anyone prepping in Illinois.

13 Mar 2012 3:46 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draybay

Now I'm relaly LMAO.  That Glamour and Glory race was run last Friday, not this coming Friday.  You're so thick you couln't even pick a winner of a race run last week.

13 Mar 2012 4:03 PM
2:24

Officially in the Draynay camp in Battle of the Super Egos 2012.

13 Mar 2012 4:17 PM
Ranagulzion

I'll agree with those who say Bodemeister will be tougher next time (Santa Anita Derby). Creative Cause however is a classy one. Both colts are the cream of California. Let us see if I'll Have Another and Midnight Transfer can compete. There is an under-the-radar colt out there called Got Even that could create some anxious moments for all and sundry if he goes in the S.A. Derby (Carlos should like him, being a son of Steven Got Even).

13 Mar 2012 4:46 PM
Ranagulzion

KY VET,

Bodemeister is still a work-in-progress. Do you really believe that Baffert has tightened the screws on him? The colt needed the schooling and seasoning of that tough San Felipe. My only concern about him is the closeness of Storm Cat on the Dam side of his pedigree, that usually implies stamina issues.

Carlos knows his stuff so thread carefully. Did you notice his handicapping of Prospective in the Tampa Bay Derby, I mean, the trip factor. Let me see you handicap like that before you start referring to loose screws in the head of my friend who seems to be recovering his handicapping edge (LOL).  

13 Mar 2012 4:55 PM
Householder

Like I said a month ago Baffert will throw everything he has at Creative Cause and come up short.  Bodemeister is a nice story but CC is a Grade 1 winner who was about 3/4ers lengths off Union Rags.  

If you don't think CC can dance with Union Rags I would encourage you to take another look at the Breeder's Cup.  Not much separating the two until he gets pushed in behind Hansen 100 yards out.  Now imagine going another 3/16 of a mile with that female line kicking in.

He breaks well, he stalks well, he runs well.  He keeps hitting the  board.  The only down side is that he looks to be waiting on horses to come to him at times and jumps around a bit.  Hence the shadow roll and blinkers.  

I can't see Union Rags finishing in front of him.  Just don't see it.  

13 Mar 2012 5:49 PM
Carlos in Cali

KY VET,

That's funny,coming from someone who hasn't cashed since Street Sense.

Let me get this straight; Bode' won't improve off his 3rd lifetime start and first around 2-turns even though BBaffert said he went easy on him going into the Lewis?..  Somehow I think you're far from a "professional handicapper". Learn.

13 Mar 2012 5:58 PM
Karen in Texas

Ranagulzion----I wasn't so disappointed by Spring Hill Farm's performance as I was puzzled. He made that strong move on the turn and then suddenly leveled off---not surprised to hear he sustained a fracture. I hope he is able to return in the fall.

13 Mar 2012 6:25 PM
Draynay

I posted those comments last Wednesday.  I got beat by a 20 dollar horse but still got paid 5.60.  I will pick a race on Wednesday again and give you my expert breakdown of the race.  Unlike anyone else on here I will tell you WHY I am picking my choice to win.  Let me know when another has the audacity to do the same.

13 Mar 2012 8:38 PM
Ranagulzion

Househlder,

The blind has been known to recover sight. Its not impossible ...you will see my friend ...keep looking. Hopefully sight will return on March 31 at the running of the Florida Derby (LOL) You wont have to wait 'til the first Saturday in May to see again.

Carlos,

Believe me, if the Trinniberg crew catches Derby fever I'll give him a shot to run a shocker purely on speed and pedigree. I don't think that it would be very good news for the connections of colts like Hansen, Bodemeister and other close stalking types. This Trinniberg is faster than any Derby pacemaker you'll ever see (faster than Hal's hope in 2000, Song And a Prayer in 2001 and Spanish Chesnut in 2005). The difference with him is that he can canter splits of 22 and change x 45 x 1:08 and change, I said CANTER, that means very relaxed while others are toiling. If this colt stays, he could really spice things up my friend. I'll be watching this crackerjack speed-ball very closely.

Karen in Texas,

Spring Hill Farm's unfortunate injury is sad news indeed. I was so confident that he was capable of crushing the TBD field and wondered whether I'd really overrated him, especially with my good friend Coldfacts forcasting an off the board finish. These precious animals are so fickle, its a blessing taken for granted when they return safely after each race.  

13 Mar 2012 9:27 PM
Draynay

Householder if you think Creative Cause is better than Union Rags you're nuts.  Union Rags is a monster and will prove it when he crushes El Overrated.

13 Mar 2012 10:11 PM
tcc

Believe me, if the Trinniberg crew catches Derby fever I'll give him a shot to run a shocker purely on speed and pedigree.

Ranagulzion 13 Mar 2012 9:27 PM.

Maybe the Illinois Derby next???

13 Mar 2012 11:08 PM
Footlick

Actually, imho, it is 50/50 whether Bodemeister will improve or react.  

13 Mar 2012 11:35 PM
KY VET

YES! I am saying bode will Not improve....RANAG. youre right very impressive trinniburg as impressive. dont talk derby though, they are not that stupid. Yes.....Draynay ducked the challenge. NO! prospective not even close to a derby horse.....

14 Mar 2012 1:20 AM
JayJay

For the Rebel, I'm going with Secret Circle.  I think Baffert thinks Castaway is the better of the two SW winners and chose to take the "easy" route with Castaway (Sunland Derby) to make it to the KDerby.  I think this is a big test for Secret Circle to see if he can run with top contenders.   My longshot is Reckless Jerry and I think Jake Mo's 2nd in the SW to Castaway is not a fluke.  After SHF, I have to hold back on getting too excited with Pletcher's horses.  I was high on Gemologist because he's a Tiznow colt but I'll have to watch him on the post parade before I jump back on him.  I'll let Jason, Draynay and all the TP fans to put all the money on Gemologist :)

They're dropping like flies, I tell ya, unless this industry stops putting too much focus on the breeding and and let these horses actually run at least past their 4 yr old season, we'll end up with a foundation of horses that ran 10 or fewer races.   The breeding industry is like day trading now, need to start attracting old school investors, ones that will allow their horses to mature and put some bottom on them before retiring them to breeding.

Draynage :  Seriously, how do you make money betting horseracing ?  

Good luck to both of you professionals on your picks THIS COMING FRIDAY 03/16 - may the best ego wins.  Remember, loser takes a couple weeks off the blog!

14 Mar 2012 1:55 AM
Bob from Boston

Did Ranagulizion really just say "my friend" twice in one post to two different people?  Well John McCain, you just outed yourself.

14 Mar 2012 9:17 AM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- I looked at Trinniberg's pedigree.  Do you really feel that horses in his 4th gen are going to have more influence than the speed influences closer up in his pedigree?  And do you really believe that a horse can run the first 6 furlongs in 1:08 and change and win the Derby?  Just wondering.......

14 Mar 2012 10:04 AM
Draynay

KY VET you and jayjay don't seem to know much about handicapping.  Each year opening day at Kenneland has some of the best young horses and the fullest fields in the country.  It is a true test of handicapping skills and they often have the richest pick 3's in the US.  Opening day is just a few weeks away and you will get your chance to lose just like I give everyone else.  Your challenge was excepted but you don't get to pick all the terms.  You said any track any time.  Keeneland opening day.

14 Mar 2012 10:20 AM
Karen in Texas

jayjay----Where did you hear that Castaway is going to the Sunland Derby? I know this stuff changes almost daily at this point, but I thought he was going to the Rebel, as well as Secret Circle.

14 Mar 2012 11:14 AM
Draynay

Jayjay how do I make money ?  By betting only 3 or 4 key races a day.  I play early pick 3's and then I wait for my key races.  The days of playing every race are long over.  Here are my expert thoughts on race 9 on Friday at Gulfstream.  Exchanging Kisses after that solid last work will be going to the front but should have some company from  Kingofthebluegrass.  King has a bullet work and adds blinkers and Castellano so he will be forwardly paced and will press Exchanging Kisses for the entire mile.  Hoodwinked will be the favorite but the horse Castellano will fear is the 9 Sunshine Rambler.  Paco will follow close behind Castellano and will try to get him at the wire.  Woodbourne has won at 25k but 50k is a bit too deep for him and his works look lazy.  Kingofthebluegrass for the win WP 100 bucks.  He should find the pool of claimers a lot easier to handle.  Good luck.

14 Mar 2012 11:44 AM
2:24

Off subject, was just watching the replays of the 1988 Triple Crown races.  What a field in the Derby.  Winning Colors, Forty Niner and Risen Star and none of those three were the favorite (Private Terms).  I had forgotten that.  Also, amazed that Risen Star wasn't favored in the Belmont.

Also, I know I may be in the severe minority here but I've got to believe that Pat Day was overrated, at least when it came to big races.  His rides on Forty Niner in the Derby and Preakness seem suspect, and I've always had a problem with some of his rides on Easy Goer.  Know he's won everything, just my thoughts.

14 Mar 2012 1:30 PM
Ranagulzion

Footlick my friend,

(I'm not John McCain ...just in case anybody takes their queue from Bob from Boston) I do believe that the first three generations in the pedigree are generally most influential, however you do appreciate, I'm sure, the wisdom of taking the five-cross pedigree information into overall calculation when looking at a possible surprise factors in a horse's capability: thats why they publish them as a rule.

Trinniberg is a very fast colt that has come to hand and the connections seem to be uncertain as to how far he can carry his speed when running at a relaxed pace. I dont think that he'd have to run 1:08 in the Derby to lead comfortably. My point is that a horse that can cruise 6 panels at 1:08 and change will be even more relaxed at 1:09 or 1:10 (very fast pace in the Derby) while burning his stalking rivals. In my estimation, if the fourth and fifth generations stamina influences kick-in, this is one dangerous Derby horse at very long odds. It has been a very long time but front running types like Spend A Buck and Bold Forbes have prevailed in the past. You never know ...gotta be open.

14 Mar 2012 2:09 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Opening day at Keeneland thats 2 or 3 weeks out you two or is it three handicapping competitors.I would like to see you start this Saturday with the Rebel,I think it will be a full gate.I hope we get a Florida Derby with Alpha,El Padrino,UR and the other hand full that might want to run.

14 Mar 2012 4:50 PM
Smoking Baby

2:24,

Check out a few of Pat Day's rides on Dollar Bill (can't remember the year, he was a Dallas Stewart trained colt).  It will underline your point about Pat Day being overrated.

Ranagulzion

In the early part of 1976 I remember people questioning whether or not Bold Forbes could get the seven furlongs of I believe the Bay Shore Stakes.  Laz Barrera wound up getting him to win the Belmont in a great training feat.

14 Mar 2012 4:58 PM
longwaytomay

Draynay,

 Opening day at Keenland sounds awesome. Did they switch back to dirt or do they still run on that fake crap that no horse should ever step foot on?

14 Mar 2012 5:06 PM
Karen in Texas

jayjay----Nevermind, I found Castaway's next start is indeed the Sunland Derby. Sorry!

14 Mar 2012 7:01 PM
Forbidden Apple

Bodemeister just ran his race of the year in the San Felipe, while Creative Cause was out for another jog. Does anyone really think Bodemeister is going to be able to run with I'll Have Another and then hold off the late charge of Creative Cause? It's starting to look like Baffert is running out of weapons. And Ranagulzion's hero named Pletcher is all out of weapons too. I remember when the racing world was going to fear Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, and Spring Hill Farm. Pletcher and Baffert can not win all of the races. But it's okay, Ranagulzion has another triple crown winner this year in Union Rags. It's nice to dream of a triple crown winner every year, it's just not reality.

Everyone is sound asleep on Alpha.

When is the Bloodhorse going to fix the video of the Las Flores? Izzy Rules is a machine that deserves some respect!

14 Mar 2012 7:39 PM
KY VET

TO THOSE OF YOU.......who dont know....what is tightening the screws? a workout? whats a 35 workout gonna do? 2 47 works? 3 57 works? You are giving workouts too much credit.....

14 Mar 2012 9:25 PM
KY VET

ranag...they are not stupid...they wont screw up the horse by even entering him.......moot

14 Mar 2012 9:37 PM
JayJay

KY VET : How about you post your picks and analysis of Friday Race 8 at GP since Draynay already posted his picks for Race 9.  Don't let Draynay's expert handicapping skills scare you.

Also, do you get all hyper and emotional when you're typing your comments on these blogs ?  It seems to me you're all excited and typing really fast like you're running out of breath trying to post your thoughts.  You might want to do breathing exercises, it'd be a shame for you to pop a vein posting comments on a blog site.  It might also help with your grammar.

Draynay : If your definition of handicapping is posting how you think the race will unfold after spending hours and hours reading the forms and beyers, then yeah, you're the king of the village.  My handicapping has proven to be effective and has put 10K in my lil girl's college fund so far.  What's your biggest win so far ?  Stick with KY VET :)

Karen In Texas : I saw it on thedowneyprofile (Castaway's profile) that Jay Privman (DRF) tweeted he's going to Sunland instead of the Rebel.  I'm not sure if it's true but it would make sense since Fed Biz got hurt.

14 Mar 2012 9:43 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I read your post and see your pick in the Rebel is Secret Circle how will you use your $100 win,place or show per race contest wager against Messers Draynay and KYVet.

14 Mar 2012 10:34 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay make your contest pick in the Rebel,theres no need to wait for Keeneland were already on the trail.

14 Mar 2012 10:36 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay I will take Woodbourne the 8 yo and do so thinking he will get a better trip starting from post 4 with the speed Exchanging Kisses right inside him.He won at the 25,000 claiming on this course as you said, and in his last two starts he has started from the farthest outside post 11 and right on the fence in 1.

14 Mar 2012 11:27 PM
Pedigree Ann

Smoking Baby;

The great Lazaro had an assist from the 'hate to lose' spirit of Bold Forbes and the heritage of his Calumet-bred dam.

Bold Forbes had lost the 6f San Miguel and 7f San Vicente before he won the 8f San Jacinto in SoCal. So when he switched coasts, one might have thought he needed two turns as a 3yo, not the 7f Bay Shore (which he won). Or it was the East Coasters who remembered only his 2yo form at Saratoga and dismissed SoCal form.  

The Belmont field was rather weak that year - I don't believe anybody but Forbsie was a graded SW - and he gritted it out to hold off the cavalry charge at the wire. But the effort took everything he had and he was never the same thereafter.

15 Mar 2012 10:59 AM
Draynay

Chief you are taking Woodbourne why ?  Because you like his post position ?  Woodbourne won at 25k but the race had a crazy speed duel in it and got the perfect set up.  That is not going to happen here and Woodbourne will struggle to hit the board.  Box the 3,6,9 for the exacta if you want a chance at winning.  Castellano jumps on a horse with blinkers with a bullet work who has been facing stakes horses for the last 2 years and is now dropping into 50k claimers watch out !

15 Mar 2012 12:03 PM
Carlos in Cali

"You are giving workouts too much credit".....

KY VET 14 Mar 2012 9:25 PM

So,a horse will get race-shape ready just by standing in his stall munching on hay?..

BBaffert will give Bode' one of his patented bullet* 7-8f workouts followed by slow,long gallops to get him ready for the 9f SA Derby.

15 Mar 2012 12:10 PM
Draynay

Opening day at Keeneland is perfect.  What are you people 12 ?  Relax, opening day is just around the corner.  Jason, don't forget to get Heather something nice.  Don't be cheap.

15 Mar 2012 12:38 PM
Tiznowbaby

Pedigree Ann,

I remember Play The Red, Great Contractor and Majestic Light as being very nice horses in that '76 Belmont. Granted, the last two got better after the Belmont, but still, they were quality.

15 Mar 2012 4:25 PM
Draynay

I am in a good mood today due to my big score at Tampa today so let me give you the early pick 4 at Gulfstream for Friday.  2,4,9 w 1 w 2,8 w 5,9.  The 1st at Tampa will have everyone betting on the 5 and for good reason the trainer is on fire and winning everything.  However, the 7 Awesome Review may get the perfect trip and Derek Ryan is pretty good off the claim.  Awesome Review has run a 112 and the favorite Thou Shall has not.  Awesome Review 100 WP.  Good luck.

15 Mar 2012 5:26 PM
JayJay

Chief : I don't play WPS bets, and it's between Draynay the self proclaimed king of handicapping and KY VET, reigning king of the village.  I'm still waiting for their picks.

If I was going to bet $100 on the race though, it would most likely be :

Trifecta :

$5 tri box 7,5,9 (30.00)

$5 tri 7 with 5, 9 with 5,9,12,6 (30.00)

$10 ex box 7 with 5,9

I'll see what Najjaar's odds will be and how he looks - he's intriguing in this race.  So are longshost Atigun and Adirondack for the bottom of exotics.

Who's your pick in the Rebel and how would you play your $100 bet ?

15 Mar 2012 6:14 PM
Draynay

Everyone is asking me about the Rebel.  Let me give you my thoughts on this race.  Sabercat is a very good horse but this race is just a prep race for him.  He is already in the Derby this is just a race to get him ready for his next race.  Secret Circle wants no part of 1 1/16th the last work he put in for Baffert tells me he is not ready for more distance.  The horse that I believe was set up perfect for this race is the 2 Scatman.  Scatman stretching out for the first time almost stole the Southwest.  He does not need the lead and may get a chance to stalk in this one.  He doesn't need the lead to win and his last 2 works look like they come from a confident trainer.  Look for Cyber Secret to go to the lead and for Scatman to sit right off of him and get first jump at the top of the stretch.  100 WP on Scatman.  You're welcome.

15 Mar 2012 6:29 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay I knew you were taking Kingofthebluegrass in part because you thought he was a live shipper and Castellano is jumping on.I didnt watch any replays but from your post you did or watched Woodbournes win live at the 25,000 level.It is not easy shipping into Gulfstream and winning, the tracks where he won and placed in stakes races are Mountineer and Indiana Downs the competition there is not close to Gulfstream Park.Are you sure he is not going to stay in S Florida and run at Calder where the competition is not as good.I also like Woodbourne because he likes to win his record on turf is 30-10-4-4 he has won $500,000 on turf and I think most of that came at Woodbine where the turf races are a little saltier than Mountaineer and Indiana Downs IMO.If Kingofthebluegrass presses Exchanging Kisses then Woodbourne will track those two in the garden spot.BTW its raining in South Florida and I think today all the races came off the turf.If the race comes off the turf or is run on less than firm turf I cancel my pick.I know Woodbourne is an eight year old but if he can still compete I think he can handle this field that is close to the end of the meet at Gulfstream where the competition is a bit lighter than in December and January.The connections of your pick could have thought of this shipping into Gulfstream in the last month of the meet.

15 Mar 2012 6:43 PM
KY VET

EVERY race SECRET CIRCLE has ran was better than all of these horses....only 1 horse with chance to beat him......ADR. KING....but the king hasnt been changing leads.....what to do? chalk or odds? I will play both in my pick 4...win place on ad. king........hows that?

15 Mar 2012 10:26 PM
KY VET

CARLOS......point is, the horse is already fit. workout wont change much......even a fast one.

15 Mar 2012 10:28 PM
KY VET

DRAYNAY! you made a bad mistake.....DONT BET the rebel! I dont want you to lose your momma's money! That was a poor pick.....

15 Mar 2012 11:17 PM
Ranagulzion

Smoking Baby and Pedigree Ann,

I think that you get my point about Trinniberg. KY VET apparently hasn't been around long enough to remember Bold Forbes.

Footlick, you are welcome to join the Trinniberg speculator's club (LOL).

15 Mar 2012 11:22 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KY Vet so you are picking Secret Circle as well as JayJay in the Rebel.Do either of you care to post what his odds will be at post time?

16 Mar 2012 1:53 AM
2:24

Not in love with any of the horses running in the Rebel.  Will probably take a shot at Atigun because I like the trainer and jockey at Oaklawn.

16 Mar 2012 9:29 AM
Carlos in Cali

KY VET

I don't think he's there yet.Like Baffert said,it was only his 3rd start so he was easy on him because the SA Derby is what they're focused on.We'll see.I say Bode' improves and CC will not.

16 Mar 2012 10:57 AM
Footlick

Ranagulzion- you gave two examples of horses you compared Trinniberg to, Spend A Buck and Bold Forbes. Both had stamina influences closer up in their pedigree, plus both were better and more accomplished at this stage of the game.  As I said, if you feel that the 4th and 5th generation will influence his distance ability to the point that he will be able to run 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May, you are certainly allowed your belief.  I cannot put faith in anything that far back.  I will let him prove me wrong.

16 Mar 2012 12:12 PM
Householder

Carlos in Cali are you suggesting that CC has peaked too soon?  The horse has never been off the board and the San Felipe was just his second start this year.  He's screaming for more ground and Union Rags is going to fold faster than the Wichita State.

16 Mar 2012 12:44 PM
JayJay

CHIEF PICAWINNA : Who's your pick in the Rebel ? How would your play your $100 ?

16 Mar 2012 1:20 PM
Carlos in Cali

Householder,

Not that he has peaked already,but I have no confidence in Harrington with this situation. He's never managed a quality router like CC. Harrington's shtick is speedy Swiss Yodeler 2yo sprinters. I don't think he can take him to the next level,but what do I know.

For what it's worth: I had a dream last night where the horses were turning for home in the Ky Derby and there was 3 horses neck-n-neck. The winner pulls-away and wins by about 3L,2nd place is clear by about 1 1/2L and the 3rd place horse fades and barely hangs on for the show spot...

16 Mar 2012 1:29 PM
Householder

Carlos in Cali.  I would like to plant some grass for CC on Derby Day but grass pedigree that can run a classic distance is what seems to win.  I thought another Giant Causway that did well on synthetics in California was Heatseeker.  Harrington has plenty to work out in this one as he seems to wait on others and jumps around quite a bit.  I don't know if he can close fast enough but my hope would be for him to break as usual, sit off the pace 4-5 lengths and then just pass tired ones.  The down side is, another grass/distance pedigree may be lurking about that can pass him.  I still don't see Union Rags outfinishing this grinder and unless they made the Florida Derby 1 1/4 miles it's irrelevant.  Seem to recall a Wood winner taking the race by 10, becomming the Derby favorite, only to do nothing in the Derby.  If everyone could simply race the clock the Derby would be an easy lock every year.  

16 Mar 2012 3:09 PM
Householder

I stand corrected.  Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 1/2 lengths in stakes record time and gets beat fading badly in the stretch by Giacomo!

Giacomo!

16 Mar 2012 3:16 PM
Draynay

Yeah wasn't it great to have Spanish Chestnut setting the fastest Derby fractions ever to burn up Bellamy Road but at the same time burning up any horse within 10 lengths of that suicide mission.  It cost us a Triple Crown winner.  

16 Mar 2012 3:52 PM
JerseyBoy

Trinniberg?

He is not a Triple Crown nominee, yet.

16 Mar 2012 4:21 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I would play a 2-3-7 exacta box using Scatman,Cyber Secret and Secret Circle 4 times $12 for $48 dollars and $25 to win on Secret Circle and $15 to win on Scatman and $12 to win on Cyber Secret.That is how I would play if you let me play exotics if not then let me know.

16 Mar 2012 4:25 PM
JayJay

CHIEF : Nah, you play however you want to play, it's your money.  I mentioned in the old blog that I didn't like SC's win in the SW because he looked all out trying to beat that "3" horse.  Looking back now, I think that was actually a really good race, just like Creative Cause's race in the San Vicente, that was a tightener.  SC should benefit from that 1M race and should improve for this race.   I'm wondering now if I should play Scatman. I don't know how good he is but if he's a pretender, the SW was his 15 minutes of fame (or 1:37).

16 Mar 2012 5:59 PM
KY VET

I AM going to bet ad.king in the rebel....i said secret and the king in my pick 4.....but i am betting the longshot....drays horse will regress.....

16 Mar 2012 9:50 PM
Forbidden Apple

Trinniberg is a sprinter, give it up with calling him a KY Derby contender. Well maybe he could win the famous derby that uncle Mo won, the Timely Writer Derby.

I never like placing money on horses that just ran the best race of their life and made a huge beyer jump. Scatman ran a 69,87, and last time a 101 beyer. Adirondack King went from a 72 to a 91 beyer last time out. Secret Circle will be cruising through fast fractions, setting the race up for the late kick of Sabercat.

Ranagulzion,

Do you believe me now? I have been telling you all along that Gemologist was Pletcher's best chance on the KY Derby trail. There is still time for you to change your mind and declare Gemologist the next triple crown winner.

Now it looks like Alpha might skip out on the FL Derby. They should send him back to the Big A where he will run Hansen into the ground. I don't get the logic of sending him to LA at all.

16 Mar 2012 9:57 PM
trackjack

2:24:  Good to see you at Tampa Bay.  If things go well I'll be back next year.  

And a shoutout for the Thoroughbred Retirement of Tampa (TROT).  Their fundraiser the evening before the TBD was first class and a great time.  A deserving organization for all they do.

Jason:  any comments on Tampa Bay Downs?

16 Mar 2012 11:24 PM
Jason Shandler

Had a nice time at Tampa. Favorite part was hanging on second floor in Legends Bar. Good atmosphere up there. Wish I could have caught a couple of the bombs that came in that day. But I got my money back at GP luckily. Anyway, its not the newest track around but it has nice character.

17 Mar 2012 12:46 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I made my picks for the Rebel to make them and compete on here.My exacta box is an outcome that will happen if the 2 and 3 get out of the gate and are joined by the 7 on the pace or right behind tracking.IMO thats the outcome that is most visible making the call before the race.Those 3 will have to separate from most the field and two of them will finish 1st and 2nd.In the Equibase handicapping contest you can only pick one horse,I will take Cyber Secret he is 15-1 on the morning line but I think he will go off at 6 or 7 to 1.Even if Secret Circle wins the Rebel I am not in his camp for the Derby.Remember last year the Factor smoked them in the Rebel winning by daylight to falter in the Arkansas Derby, although he had what I consider the best excuse for a trainer, he got hurt in the race, he flipped his palate.

17 Mar 2012 7:05 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I made my picks but they are just to compete on here.I doubt I will get the set-up from previous races viewed and the odds I would like to play the 2-3-7 ex box.I am keeping an eye on the colt you mentioned and I have read other people take note of Najjaar.This trainer had Steppenwolfer several years back and he was a deep closer that finished 4th in the Derby.I have read his last was visually Impressive,so I wont watch the replay I will watch the Rebel and see how good he closes in this field.I also like Sabercat,I have him in Derby futures but he will be 2nd choice off a 119 day layoff.If Sabercat wins or comes in 2nd I will be very happy I already got him in the early installments of Derby futures.

17 Mar 2012 7:40 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Btw JayJay I just looked at the Rebel your pick 7-5-9 thats what you wrote is Secret Circle Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry,I think you meant Secret Circle Sabercat and Antigun from reading your post.Is that who your playing in the tri box or is it Mo and Jerry behind SC.

17 Mar 2012 7:47 AM
JayJay

Chief : No, I used thedowneyprofile's post position for the Rebel which was incorrect since there were a coupled horses.  I played Secret Circle with Reckless Jerry and Jake Mo just like I stated, I had a tri with SC to Jake Mo and Scatman but never had Optimizer anywhere in any of my tickets.  If the race was run again, I still wouldn't have Lukas' horse in my ticket.

KY VET : Nice pick on Adirondack King, you're such the PRO.

18 Mar 2012 2:26 PM
Householder

Pace caused Point Given to miss the Triple Crown as well.  The Derby was the only time he was off the board and he went on to win 4 consecutive 1 million dollar or over races.  The Derby is a complete crap shoot.  Pace, post position, jockey error, too many horses in the way, you name it.

20 Mar 2012 12:35 PM
Draynay

It's kind of crazy to me that next year it will cost more to hook up with Scatdaddy than it will Point Given.

24 Mar 2012 8:51 PM

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