Derby Sleeper: Prospective

It is no secret that the growing trend over the past few years is for connections to take a cautious approach to the Kentucky Derby, especially with top-rated contenders. A win in a lucrative 2-year-old race often dictates a lightly-raced schedule as a 3-year-old leading up to the first Saturday in May. Having three starts leading up to the Derby is a lot by today's standards.

In addition, more than ever we see late-bloomers pop up on the Derby trail, sometimes many of them not making their first start until late into their 2-year-old season or even early as a sophomore. The high cost of owning/buying horses, risk of injury, potential value of a lucrative stud deal, and the current economic climate all factor into this new, guarded approach to handling Derby contenders. Old-school racing fans don't like it, but it is what it is.

If you are one of those from the old-school that values a battle-tested Derby horse, you are probably going to want to take a long look at one of the most consistent and experienced horses in this year's group--Prospective. Trained by Mark Casse for Derby-winning owner John Oxley, Prospective is still considered by many as a fringe contender on this year's trail. The main knock against him is that his "numbers" are too low, which puts him a cut below the top contenders. There may be some truth to that, but numbers aside, Prospective has a lot going for him.

Fresh off his March 10 Tampa Bay Derby win, the son of Malibu Moon has already punched his ticket to the Derby. He showed a new dimension in that win, as Casse added blinkers in order to keep him more involved early in the race. It worked too, as he took the lead before a half-mile was run and gamely held off Golden Ticket in the stretch.

That was already the third start of the season for Prospective. All of them came at Tampa Bay Downs, which is known for its deep track that many trainers like preparing Derby horses on. As I wrote a couple weeks ago, since 2006 two Kentucky Derby winners have come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and another horse finished third. Prospective began his season by winning the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs and then finished a closing second to Battle Hardened in the Sam Davis.

Prospective, who is out of the Awesome Again mare Spirited Away and was a $250,000 yearling, still has one Derby prep left. It will either come in the April 7 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the April 14 Blue Grass. The results of that final prep remain to be seen, but up until now you won't find many other Derby contenders with as much experience or consistency as Prospective.

Overall he is 4-2-0 from seven starts. As a juvenile, he finished second in his debut on the Woodbine turf, which came way back in July. Then Casse moved him to the Polytrack where he broke his maiden at seven furlongs and followed it up with a two-turn score in the Grey Stakes (Can-III) on the same surface. That last win propelled him to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which resulted in the only bad start of his career. It came at Churchill Downs, but the track was cuppy and tiring that weekend. It likely won't be the same Churchill track we see on Derby Day.

Regardless of what he does in his last prep, handicappers are likely to see that Breeders' Cup result and automatically think Prospective does not like Churchill. That couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the colt is already there and training over it--and doing quite well, just as he was leading up to the Breeders' Cup.

"I think you can toss that race out completely," said Norman Casse Jr., top assistant to his father Mark. "I don't have any real reason to say why he ran bad that day, but if you watched any of the TVG or HRTV coverage leading up to the Breeders' Cup, a lot of people were kind of picking Prospective as the longshot because of how well he was training over there. And he's already here and loves it again. He's been here since Sunday morning. The race was a throw out.

"He's gotten faster and fitter from last year, but ultimately I think it was adding the blinkers and having him closer to the pace last time has been the big change that moved him forward. That's so important because he didn't have to go weave through traffic and was able to stay out of the trouble he had in his previous starts.

While Oxley won the Kentucky Derby in 2001 with Monarchos, Team Casse has only been in the gate once--in 2006 when Seaside Retreat finished 10th. They are eager to not just show up again, but believe Prospective--if everything continues to go well--will have a legitimate shot to win. They are also hoping that Stealcase, who runs in the Spiral Stakes this weekend at Turfway, can join them in Louisville.

"It's exciting right now, but you learn to have reservations," Casse said. "I fully expect him to make the Derby but you don't get really excited until you get close to the race; we all know things happen that you can't control.

"We think he's really fit from his races at Tampa, so wherever he goes (for his final prep), we're not going to be looking to do too much in his last race anyway.

"We were talking earlier about it and we think, if we make it there and he's healthy and doing well going into it, we wouldn't be surprised if he was right there inside the sixteenth-pole. We think he's a pretty talented horse."

155 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Draynay

I am looking for 5 horses to place under the Monster Union Rags.  There hasn't been a horse like this coming into the Derby since Big Brown.  It's been a long time since someone won it from the front in the Derby and I don't expect the speed to be hanging around this year when the real running gets started.  So far I am locked in on 2 horses under Union.  Mark V. and Creative Cause.

23 Mar 2012 1:08 PM
mz

Thank you, Jason.  I did think the Juvenile was just too bad to be true.  I have no doubt he can get the distance and that he has the class.  

(I need to get in before Bob/Ted on this one ... You're talking about one of my choices in the Derby! )

23 Mar 2012 1:17 PM
mz

Curses!  Foiled by Draynay!  Double curses!

23 Mar 2012 1:18 PM
Bob from Boston

Draynay,

Don't ever do that again.

23 Mar 2012 1:24 PM
Jason Shandler

For what it's worth, my selection for this weekend are Isn't He Clever in Sunland Derby and Stealcase in Spiral. Win/place on both.

Good luck.

23 Mar 2012 1:28 PM
It aint easy being good!

All right jason I am going to follow your pics this weekend! Good article I saw prospective win and thought he was a decent derby shot. What are your thoughts on my adonis I put him in the same category as prospective but I like the fact that my adonis has ran in big races and seems as though he will get better as the distances are better.

Draynay make sure you put Street life in your exacta box I havent seen a turn of foot like street life since big brown he is a beast! Hope to get street life at 5-1 in the wood. You just dont see horses close that fast!

23 Mar 2012 2:08 PM
Weekend

a lot of people like Stealcase this weekend, The Sarge Nick Hines is one of them!

I like Ill Conceived. His Beyers improved in his last three, he has the highest speed figure in the race, this is the 2nd start for him at Turfway, and he should of won the Battaglia. I do like Stealcase too. His last race is a toss, he had a lot of trouble in the Gotham, and he still improved his speed figure rallying in the lane. Round it out with Holiday Promise and Heavy Breathing.

23 Mar 2012 2:16 PM
Weekend

Have to throw in a saver bet on Mr Prankster. I know the owner

23 Mar 2012 2:36 PM
Draynay

Jason I already told you who is going to win the Sunland... Julien will time that last second run perfectly and win going away !  Bet it all  !!!  Julien L on Daddy Nose Best !!!

23 Mar 2012 2:54 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Well at least Draynay isn't on Gemologist!  Whew!!!  I'll take a Gemologist, Hansen, El Padrino Exacta box for now. (subject to change with the most important preps still yet to be run).

23 Mar 2012 2:54 PM
Paula Higgins

mz and Bob from Boston, you two are hilarious. Draynay, Bob from Boston will come after you with dueling pistols if you keep this up.

I have my doubts that Prospective will win or come in second, but third is a possibility. The other main contenders would have to have a bad day/race for him to win.

We need a blog entitled "Is There Really A Draynay Curse?" I like Union Rags too Draynay, but he is no Barbaro. Barbaro was a step up and then some.

23 Mar 2012 2:57 PM
EddieF

No doubt Prospective is a good one. Even if he wins the Wood or Blue Grass, he'll be good value regardless of presumed faults. One factor that can't be overlooked is that you'd have to go very far back in Derby history to find a winner who had run poorly at Churchill prior to the big one (though some may have had a bad race, but also a good one).

As for the BC Juvenile races run at Churchill, there's scant data. Of the four horses that have finished in the second half of the field in a BC Juvenile at Churchill and ran in the Derby the following year, not one was on the board in the Derby.

23 Mar 2012 3:18 PM
furlongs

Same old story EVERY Derby season for DRAYNAY. "Hasn't been a horse coming up to the derby like Union Rags"?? Wow last year UNCLE MO was a Triple Crown winner at this point according to you!! There is only one way to describe you... A COMPLETE JOKE! I never pick a horse to win the KY Derby before the post position draw simple cause you just don't know who really will be running with the way injuries occur, and training up to the race is so important I think, so I don't get to caught up with horses that I want to think have to win a race when it comes to the toughest race to win in the world. But I do have a few I like better then others at this point. As for this weekend my picks are-

The Spiral Stakes: Number of horses in this race that look like they could win in this spot but going to stay away from the outside horses in this field and go more to the inside with both Ill Conceived and Went The Day Well.(horses going two turns at Turfway in posts 8-12 have a horrible record this meet) not many horses in this field would surprise me if they won.

The Sunland Oaks: Princess Arabella will most likely go wire to wire against this bunch but can't stop looking at the Asmussen filly and how she was running against On Fire Baby at CD last fall so looks like a big time chalk exacta in this one to me.

The Sunland Derby: Stirred Up looks like a great alternative to Daddy Knows Best if your looking for a closer in a race that has three solid speed horses. So I will go with the less bet Baffert horse in this spot and hope the speed comes back.

Will be up on the Fifth Floor tomorrow enjoying a day of live racing and a usually solid buffet each year for Spiral Day at Turfway. Its not Keeneland but hey it beats sitting in a off track betting center or betting on the computer!! Nothing better then being able to go to the paddock before a race to see the horses up close before they run. Good luck at the windows everyone...

23 Mar 2012 3:33 PM
mz

Eddy F:  Mine That Bird did just that.

23 Mar 2012 3:50 PM
fuzzbert

I'm still out in left field for any of my Derby pics,however, knowing the Pons family - Country Life Farm - who bred Malibu Moon and have done wonders to support MD racing, my heart says go with Prospective.  Afterall, the breeders of Cigar can't be all wrong.

23 Mar 2012 4:04 PM
Draynay

furlongs my pick last year for the Derby was Nehro.  He came in 2nd where did your horse finish ?  UM got sick and almost died and you guys still pick on him for some reason.  Let me guess furlongs Barbaro sucks because he came in last at the Preakness.

23 Mar 2012 5:19 PM
Coldfacts

There are six colts at that occupy the last six slots in my Derby Dozen. They are News Pending, Tiger Walk Stirred Up, Najjaar, Tizanexpense and Neck & Neck.

Najjaar finished 6th in the Rebel beaten 41/2L and appears to have a live chance of taking down one of the big dollar 9F Derby preps to be contested over the next four weeks.

Stirred Up and Tizaexpense will be in action on Saturday. I have previously posted that I considered Stirred Up to be Speedy Bob’s best Derby prospect. He has all the credential to be a Derby winner. It cannot be ignored that he is from the Mr. Prospector sire line that has a strangle hold on TC races. Hid dam sire Quite American is also dam sire of Bernardini and is one of four sons of Fappiano that have been broodmare sires of winners of Triple Crown and major races. The other are Unbridled (Sahckleford); Cryptoclearance (Victory Gallop) Defensive play (Efficient, Melbourne Cup winner). His stable mate Castaway is also form the Mr. Prospector. However I have no love for Storm Cat as a broodmare sire. I expect Castaway and his hot rider to dominate the betting along with the colts from Mr. Pletcher and Mr. Asmussen barns. This will ensure the backers of Stirred Up a good pay day. He will be on top of all my wagers as after this race he will never see those odds again.

I really like Tizaexpense. I have not seen the PPs but I am hoping Mr. Maker has removed the head equipment. In his only start on a synthetic track he finished 9th. His two victories were achieved on dirt. Why are his connections returning him to the surface on which recorded his worst his of performance?  Probably they think he is not good enough to win the LA Derby. I cannot disagree more. He won two races at the Fairgrounds and should been given another chance after his subpar performance in the RS.  I am now in a dilemma as I am force to support a member of my Dozen on the dust bowl known as Turf Way Park. He will be a getting great odds and consequently I will hold my nose and wager him in spite the blinkers and synthetic track.

23 Mar 2012 5:45 PM
tjconway

Alpha looks awesome. Hansen, Union rags and Gemologist will hook up for a 1:34 mile....Alpha will pounce on them and nose out Gemologist.

23 Mar 2012 6:04 PM
Mister Frisky

I'm with Draynay.Key Union Rags,Creative Cause and 4 or 5 bombs underneath.Will see you in line at the IRS window.

23 Mar 2012 6:54 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY,

If you really want to ask that then thats cool, here is one for you..."yeah well my horse finished 2nd in the BC Classic last year where did your horse finish?? LOL Please! My point is EVERY year you have a horse that you say looks like a world beater only to look like a complete fool. The last Derby you won was the last Derby won by the favorite Big Brown... You are nothing more then a chalk better and the only thing you like better then 4/5 is 3/5 when the chips are down. You ended up on Nehro which was the buzz horse that qualified for a non winners on 1x allowance nice job picking that one...if someone else would of choose a horse like that in the KY Derby you would have told them what a moron they were on these blogs! Your record last year in prep races leading up to the Ky Derby was a complete joke! It was basically ok who does Draynay like this week so I know what favorite to throw out!! Yeah your horse beat my horse in last years Ky Derby whats your point? I mean really anyone and I mean ANYONE that thought Uncle Mo could win the Classic such as you must have rocks in there head! Although it was to be expected you picked him after all you bet Quality Road the year before in the BC Classic!! Someone is challenging you based on your past of always having a horse that looks like he cant lose the Ky Derby and all you can do in response is bring up last years Ky Derby that you lost as well?? Wow is it really going that bad for you? Mr. $2000 win on Uncle Mo in the classic!! LOL you on here saying you were going to bet that says it all. I am serious how can you say your a handicapper and justify that bet? Wow you beat everything! By the way your such a good handicapper and have such a big bankroll why is it your never on here bragging about all the national handicapping challenges your in or winning? I mean you are nothing more then a big mouth tool, that wants others to believe you are something more then what you are and that is a avg at best handicapper that loves to tell people how much you won after the races are over... NOTHING More! Good luck everyone at the windows.

23 Mar 2012 9:11 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

I have followed your criteria for a Derby Winner for some time. Yet there is a horse out there that meets the very fundamental basics of a "Coldfacts" horse that you have failed to mention. Please, allow me to assist.

This colt is of the Mr. Prospector sire line. His dam is of the most coldfacts preferred unraced type. I'll even go a step further. This unraced mare's first foal even won the Kentucky Derby and has a half brother on the trail to that very winner. Why she is even a Smart Strike mare which should have  you doing cartwheels since that gives this guy Mr. Prospector top and bottom. And yet not a mention from Coldfacts.

And it's not like he hasn't shown you he can finish in  splits of 11+ going 9F's already. Why Oh Why do you not utter his name in reverence. I must know why o swami of the pedigree mix. Do you just not like his name?

23 Mar 2012 9:28 PM
Bob from Boston

Dray,

Since you had the audacity to post first, I have a challenge for you.  You pick a Derby prep this weekend and choose the winner.  I will throw a dart at a dart board.  I am very confident my number will beat your pick.  mz, you're still on my good side and I would draw a bath for you any night.  Dray, you cannot pick Heavy Breathing because that would remind me too much of drawing mz's bath.  That is the only rule.  Are you game or are ya yella?  I ain't yella.

23 Mar 2012 10:13 PM
Bob from Boston

Jason,

My friend, please tell me you did not write this article:

Bodemeister's Quick Breeze Far From Ordinary

It reads like a canvas that Ozzie Osbourne would paint on...

23 Mar 2012 10:42 PM
PomDeTerre

Casse a very decent man and long overdue.  Am looking at Went the Day Well this weekend.

23 Mar 2012 10:57 PM
Draynay

Bob, never take on a expert.  I have traveled the world, first class of course and I can tell you taking on a expert seldom ends well.  However, I will give you your chance to look foolish.  The Sunland Derby sets up well for Daddy Nose Best.  Lot's of speed to the inside and they will be in a mad dash for sure but cutting the last turn a few of these will be tired and expect Daddy Nose Best to be there picking them off and finishing first in front of Isn't He Clever.  Remember, I am never wrong.

23 Mar 2012 11:18 PM
KY VET

Wow....I actually agree with JASON and COLDCUTS. for the sunland race...both nice price horses.....who do i go with?

23 Mar 2012 11:33 PM
mz

Speaking of Heavy Breathing, is On Fire Baby still on track for one of the preps or is she going back to the girls?  (Bob: this is an obvious gift to you because I am on your side of the Darts/Draynay issue)

--------- and ------------

Does anybody know what's happening to Dixie Strike (except for the fact that she is now the Winterbook favourite for the Queens Plate)?  

23 Mar 2012 11:55 PM
RJPPDP

Jason,

Right now, I am a big fan of Prospective. He is working out great and his prep races have been tough. He has had some battles already and so he has toughened himself for Wood or Bluegrass. I remember Street Sense and Super Saver went through Tampa. He is my top sleeper for the derby.

My picks for the Sunland is Isn't He Clever with Castaway and the Spiral is Breathing Heavy with Tizexpense.

Let the final preps begin!

24 Mar 2012 1:01 AM
JayJay

Billy's Empire : You're betting on Mr. Prankster because you know the owner ??  What??  What a stupid bet, betting on a horse without reading the form !  Who does that ?!? LOL, what a joke you are.

Spiral : Tizanexpense and Stealcase.  I forgot that Tizanexpense was running in this race when I first posted my picks which was State of Play.  It turns out SoP decided to run somewhere else so now I feel pretty good with Tiz's chance to win the race.

Sunland : Castaway with Ender Knievel and Longview Drive.  I like Longview Drive cause I know Jerry Hollendorfer, I saw him walk by the paddock once and he nodded at me so I have to throw some money on his horse now.  Kind of like a saver bet, I think that's what pros do... ain't that right Billy ? lol

24 Mar 2012 2:07 AM
predict

Jason, I like your pick of Isn't He Clever in the Sunland. If I have any concern it is the first time jockey, Luis Contreras. If he can lay back off the pace and not get too nervous early and ask for too much too soon because of the big purse/payday, then I think this is Isnt He Clever's race to win. I would expect most of the invaders to start tiring due the altitude, and run less than they are capable of at another track, but this is Clever's track and he will be ready, just hope the jockey is too. Will play WP,but with some hold on the purse strings.

24 Mar 2012 2:24 AM
Coldfacts

The Spiral is good gambling race. Because of the surface and distance of the race, the field is comprised of knowns, unknowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. In light of this, exotics are the way to go as a number of long shots could make the board. Below are the five colt that will comprise by exotics.

Russian Greek: Four starts on an AW track. Record (2-0-0); His first start at 9F was in the El Camino Real Derby were he finished 5thto Daddy Knows Best and Lucky Chappy. He is bred for the distance.   He might lack the class of others but has the AW track advantage. This Giant’s Causeway colt appears honest enough and should be in the mix. (Known)

Heavy Breathing: Another Giant’s Causeway colt whose two starts has been on dirt. His pedigree is excellent and he moved fluently over ground. I love chestnuts from this sire. Makes his AW debut but has a reasonable turf pedigree. He has one start at 9F but will he like the AW? (Known unknown)

Coach Royal: This maiden was sired by Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. His dam was sired by A P Indy who won the Belmont as well. His last two starts have been at 9F where finished 2nd and 3rd.  He finished a close 3rd in a 9F race run in a time of 1:48.25. The promising News Pending and Exothernic won 9F turf races in 1:48.56 and 1:48.56 respectively. Will he like the AW? Well Lemon Drop Kid is the sire of Richards Kid who won several G1 races on synthetic tacks. (Known unknown)

Tizanexpense: Love his pedigree. He finished 11 Lengths behind Elpadrino in the Risen Star with a bad trip. He has never raced beyond 8.5F. However he is bred for 12F. Does have the class and will he handle the AW with his overwhelming dirt pedigree?

(Unknown Unknown)

Holiday Promise: If there is going to be a major upset in the Spiral this colt could be the one that light up the tote board. His dam line suggests turf or synthetic is in his future big time. His dam sire Miswaki needs no introduction. Just think Sea The Star and Galileo. His second and third dams were sire by Nijinsky and Blushing Groom. These dam sires are all great turf influence. In his last race at the Big A he was spinning his wheels. He must be turf/synthetic horse as he did not look comfortable on the dirt. He is worth the risk. (Unknown Unknown)

If Handsome Mike makes the top three I will be a looser.

24 Mar 2012 12:41 PM
Bob from Boston

I threw the dart.  It came up a 3.  Therefore, I am betting Stirred Up beats Daddy Nose Best.  He is a much longer shot, but I still like him more than the horse Draynay jinxed.

24 Mar 2012 1:03 PM
Draynay

furlongs, what you don't know is I don't have to make things up my life has been and is interesting enough.  I have been to the track with the writer of this blog several times and he has seen me bet and seen me win and lose.  I can't help that you can't spot talent.  Easy Goer was a major talent along with Curlin, Big Brown, Uncle Mo, and Union Rags.  You should have heard me talk about Afleet Alex.  I told everyone who would listen he was the next Triple Crown winner and should have been except for Spanish Chestnut sent on a suicide mission to ruin Bellamy Road.  Union Rags is a very special horse and I can't help that you can't see it.  There is nothing wrong with getting excited about a horse it is part of the game I enjoy most.  A few years back I got to cheer on the greatest 3 year old filly of our time and enjoyed every minute of it.  I believe Union Rags is one of the best 3 year olds we have seen in 10 years and I am going to enjoy it all I can while it last.  There are some good horses out there this year but there is only one Union Rags.  Climb aboard and enjoy the ride or just sit on the sidelines like you always do saying see I told you so.  What a sad way to go through life.

24 Mar 2012 1:19 PM
JayJay

furlongs : That was probably the best post I've ever seen about draynage lol.  Now you have to watch your back, starting today, you'll get the wrath of Billy's Empire for attacking his master. :)

24 Mar 2012 1:45 PM
Bob from Boston

mz, what is the "Queen's Plate?"  I didn't even realize they ran horses in that vast wasteland north of the United States.

24 Mar 2012 1:59 PM
Stevebiscuit

Draynay, while I agree with you that Union Rags is immensely talented, I wouldn't say that he, Uncle Mo, or Big Brown belong in the same sentence as Easy Goer or Curlin. It's funny that only a year after you declared Uncle Mo the next Secretariat, you're now harping UR as  a legend in the making. He's got a world of talent, but don't be surprised if he, like Uncle Mo, falls way short of your expectations.

24 Mar 2012 2:36 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay you do know Im one up on you for taking Woodbourne in the 9th at Gulfstream on Friday the 16th of March.You took Kingofthe bluegrass who finished 3rd.Woodbourne paid 12.40 win 6.00 place and the wager was $100 win and place after deducting the $200 dollars wagered Im up $720.00 and you lost $200.00. Whenever you want to play again let me know.I really like Gulfstream so pick out a race from there if you like.

24 Mar 2012 3:13 PM
Draynay

Chief I will be betting on the the 7th race Sunday at Gulfstream.  I like the 3 horse Impatient Bride.  She is coming down and a little and would like to get dry ground and a good start.  3rd Start off the layoff and a solid work tells me she is ready from the inside post.  I think Sanchez has this horse figured out and will get her into the action quickly.

24 Mar 2012 5:34 PM
Bob from Boston

Have any of you who have been following this blog for the past 55 years realized that every time Ted from LA and Bob from Boston criticizes a horses name he wins?  The day went well for Went the Day Well.  Heavy Breathing has some work to do.  Was the rail slow today?  I sure hope so.  mz, I was joking about Canada.  I love Canada.  In fact, it is the first place I will go if Rick Santorum is elected president.

24 Mar 2012 6:06 PM
Mister Frisky

Hang in there Draynay.Union Rags is the superior athlete.Has a massive trainer edge over Creative Cause.He will play with the field next week at probably 80%.Matz will have this dude sitting on the big one May 5th.

24 Mar 2012 6:09 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay I will take the firster Mayreau,the trainer has good stats for the race type and he probably has an urgency to win this before he leaves town.The sire and dam stats for firsters are good,and the dam has 4 winners out of the 6 starters she has had.The problem in this pick is if everyone gets on board she will be the favorite and it might be 7/5 or 6/5 if she goes off at 5/2 that would be great but I know this time your pick will go off at higher odds.

24 Mar 2012 7:09 PM
furlongs

Draynay.

I never said Union Rags isnt a fantasic racehorse (he is) but I am not ready to crown anyone yet as this years crop looks to have talent throughout if you ask me. Also the trip will play a big part in the Derby as always and most on here know the best horse doesnt win the Derby often for that reason. BTW on another note I won the Sprial Stakes on my pick on this blog had a nice exacta keying both the #4 and #7 on top of a few horses and missed the tri cause I refused to use that slow Pletcher horse (3) that was a horrible favorite... How did you do Draynay?? LOL thats what I thought. Once again your totally AVERAGE at best when it comes to handicaping! Also I was there live and I thought without a doubt the Pletcer filly that won the Burbonette was ultra impressive and the most impressive on the entire card today. Good luck at the windows everyone looking foward to seeing how I do tomorrow at Sunland...

24 Mar 2012 7:49 PM
furlongs

thanks jayjay... he is nothing but mouth one of those guys we all know at the track that always has all the winners and the more you get to know them the more you find out they are full of complete... well you know. LOL I know a guy just like him at Churchill we call him Mr. Perfect the guy that always sweeps the card, you know the type! Well myself and Mr. Perfect and a few others went to Oaklawn for a week and the whole time we were there Mr. Perfect was betting $2 ex boxes with 4 horse and not cashing!! lol But when he is at Churchill/Keeneland and you walk up to him and say hey how you doing...his response is always "killing them, swept the card yesterday.. had $40 ex box last race and $10 tri as well. That sort of thing, you know. The main thing is just cause someone says they win on these blogs doesnt mean they do.

DRAYNAYS win % after the race when he tells you how much he bet/won = 100%

DRAYNAYS win % after the race when he posts his picks online on these blogs before the race is run =

10% or less and most always the horse pays less then $6...

Simple as that he nothing more then another "Mr Perfect" that we all know at our local track.

Good luck at the windows everyone...

24 Mar 2012 8:09 PM
Draynay

Chief I see what you like but I think you stepped in it this time.  6 1/2 furlongs is a tough distance for a first time starter.  My 3 horse is cutting back and dropping a little.  Your pick also has a lot of works and it tells me they have maybe had a little trouble getting this one motivated.  We shall see.

24 Mar 2012 8:38 PM
mz

Bob:  that's OK.  How do you think that little guy managed to run the mile and a quarter in two minutes flat the first Saturday in May of 1964?  He learned as a 2YO to stay in front of the polar bears on the track at Woodbine.

(Although even if he hadn't, at least he could count on universal health care.)

24 Mar 2012 9:34 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Trying to handicap a race with so many unknown quantities while trying to spot a long shot was not a smart idea. The result of the race made you look like an amateur, especially because you missed the most obvious clue to spotting the likely winner ...Johnny Velasquez riding for Graham Motion in a race where Todd Pletcher has the favourite. Obviously your day didn't go well (LOL).  Better luck next time buddy.

24 Mar 2012 11:05 PM
Matthew W

1/4 of my bankroll ($60) was $5 wps on #4 Boat Trip, in the fifth at The Great Race Place...Valdivia an excellent turf rider, horse was crying out for one turn and does Mike Pender develop a turf horse or what? The first two from that maiden race, Boat Trip and the Smith horse--both look like serious race horses! Won on three of the five races I played, and nearly doubled my do re mi--hit the ninth race exacta, 8/5 over 16-1--$38 for a buck--but I had it both ways and also played the 16-1 shot to win, so I won but I lost, on that one--I played two horses to win the Tokyo Cup--love that they card a 1 1/2 mi race over dirt--what a past time kinda thing! Caught the $13 winner, with David Flores riding him aggressively! So I hit 3 outta 5, and I only doubled my $60? Cuz I bit on the 9-2 on Bejarano in last--he had regressed in last, a sign...then the cold on the board theory--the quarterback is toast! Baffert's returning claimer looked like a Gr 1 sprinter in last--also lost the 7th, thought Mr Escalante--er, Canani's horse was going to win big! Three nice hits, two big misses = $60 to $109 and I live to fight another day...Not sayin I'm Pittsburgh Phil, then Phil wasn't Gary Cass, the late great, my Best Saturday Night Pal, who once made thirty-one bets, over six hours, on $1.06 in his tvg account, and I'd say that was some kinda good--gonna go down to the track tom, take out my winnings, and handicap the feature, buy a drink and toast the G-Man--with the tracks money!

25 Mar 2012 12:01 AM
Point Given

Baffert's Exacta(stirred Up & Castaway). $30 win on Princess Arabella. Z U @ IRS Window.

25 Mar 2012 12:19 AM
Coldfacts

Is it reasonable to regard Prospective as a top Derby prospect? Well one of the ways to evaluate his prospect is to compare him to another colt who took a similar path to the Derby via Tampa Bay. His path to the Derby mirrors that of the talented Musket Man. Listed below is a comparison of both colts’ records at Tampa Bay:

TAMPA BAY DERBY:  (Finishing position - 1st)

Street Sense:  23.53, 47.57, 1:12.03, 1:36.58, 1:43.11 (NTR)

Musket Man: 24.11, 48.34, 1:12.45, 1:37.17, 1:43.67

Prospective:   22.69, 47.02, 1:11.61, 1:36.79, 1:43.35

SAM DAVIS: (Finishing position - 3rd & 2nd)

Musket Man: 23.91, 47.77, 1:12.25, 1:37.21, 1:43.54

Prospective:   23.79, 47.81, 1:12.25, 1:38.00, 1:44.58

PASCO STAKES: (Finishing position - 1st)

Musket Man: 1.23.06

Prospective:   1.23.88

Musket man went on to win the 9F Il Derby and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Prospective is likely to contest the 9F Wood. Musket Man was 3rd in the Sam Davis whereas Prospective was 2nd.  They bothe won the Tampa Bay Derby and Pasco Stakes. Prospective appears marginally slower than Musket Man at this stage but has the better10F pedigree. He was sired by Malibu Moon a son of A P Indy and sire of the brilliant Coco Beach. His dam was sired by Breeder Classic Cup Winner Awesome Again. Prospective has beaten the likes of Golden Ticket, Wildcat Creek, Look Out and The Bear Now. The Sam Davis winner Battle Hardened was MIA in the TBD. Prospective has not really distinguished himself against the cream of the crop and therefore the jury is still out on his prospects as a serious Derby horse. Any horse that record 1:43 at Tampa Bay is very good.

25 Mar 2012 11:14 AM
kjm0910

Wow....someone should search up the Canadians that have come from 'the great wasteland of the North'....maybe that will help Bob from Boston realize how much of 'wasteland' we are...

25 Mar 2012 11:28 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay I do not have as strong of an opinion on this firster as I did on the 8yo.In maiden races I usually take the experienced ones with more races under their belt,instead of taking the hyped overbet first time starters ,of which I think Mayreau will be overbet.She wont be hyped because this is Maiden claiming and not a MSW starter from a prominent barn.I wont be surprised if any of them win if they have a good day and of course a good trip in this maiden claimer.I am not changing my pick but I hate to bet a firster that will be the favorite,after all none of these fillies know the most important lesson, how to win,lets see what happens.

25 Mar 2012 12:08 PM
Draynay

furlongs, AGAIN I will try to explain to you why your words are falling on deaf ears.  I have BEEN to the track with several people on here.  I buy tickets from one of the guys on here for the Breeders Cup.  He sat next to me when Blame whipped the field.  He saw me hit 4 of the first 5 races.  There is a lot of pressure being the worlds greatest handicapper.  And I know little people like you have a hard time understanding the truly gifted.  Being perfect isn't always easy its just something I have gotten use to. If you need help handicapping furlongs just let me know because like jayjay you guys like to run your mouths but have never once stepped up and handicapped a race on this blog.

25 Mar 2012 1:37 PM
Paula Higgins

Bob from Boston, Rick Santorum doesn't have a snowball's chance in h*** of getting the Republican nomination. Not to worry. He can't get to the magic number of delgates or enough delegates to get to a brokered nomination. It's Romney's this year, whether you like him or not.

Anyone see the New York Times piece/expose today on horse racing? It's not good for public relations, that's for certain. Some of its points are valid (i.e.the doping, racing horses that are not in good shape etc.). But in typical NYT's fashion, it only presents one view. I wish they had looked at what the sport is trying to do to fix these problems (and they need to do much more). All of the good publicity generated by Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra is going to be for naught.

25 Mar 2012 3:44 PM
LAZMANNICK

There are several things to take into consideration following yesterday’s Spiral Stakes:

• Went The Day Well ran a full second faster than Animal Kingdom did last year on a track that might have been slightly faster as seen by Animal Kingdom’s 94 Beyer on a 1.52.32 clocking as compared to Went The Day Well’s 92 Beyer on a 1.51.33 clocking.

• Individual fractions are very interesting:  Animal Kingdom’s final individually timed 3/8’s was in 39.25…Went The Day Well’s were 39.07…….Animal Kingdom’s race had a final full quarter in 26.39 followed by a final 8th in 13.36……..Went The Day Well’s races final splits were 26.21 and 13.26.   I say so what about the time of the race and the splits.  Animal Kingdom won the Derby off his so that makes Went The Day Well’s final splits legit considering the track surface and how it plays.

• The track is a tiring one which means that horses running on it and then switching to dirt get virtually the same affect that horses switching from grass to dirt do in that they tend to “leg up”.

• Went The Day Well ran two races on dirt at Gulfstream and competed quite well in them so I don’t think the switch back to dirt will affect him one bit.

• Both Howe Great and Went the Day Well are Team Valor horses with John Velazquez apparently sticking with the connections for his Derby mount when clearly he could still pick up a live Pletcher mount.  Now John V’s decision, if this plays out, will be which horse he’ll chose to ride, which will at least tell us something even though on their best days both might not be able to compete with the top Derby favorites.  (Most probably said that about Animal Kingdom too).  I think if John V. sticks with Team Valor then they’ll both be live horses.  If he should jump ship and pick up another Derby mount then I say pass on both these horses for sure.

25 Mar 2012 4:43 PM
Matthew W

Mr Drysdale bagged both Gr 2's today, at The Great Race Place. Pouring rainstorm for the Santa Ana--a very soft trifecta, 7-1 on top of 11-1 and then 65-1--and then it pays $2200 are you kidding me? Getting goosebumps thinking of the Santa Anita Derby! Love I'll Have Another, think he'll beat Creative Cause, himself a very nice colt, as is Baffert's Bodemiester! Three Amigos! The "big three" from the Breeders Cup, Hansen/Union Rags/Creative Cause remain the top three in US--a very good crop, it appears! And many others--many--waiting in the wings for the second season! Wouldn't suprise me one bit if The Breeders Cup Classic is swept by three year olds!

25 Mar 2012 7:00 PM
Matthew W

Another betting oddity--yesterday at The Great Race Place, in the last race the 6-5 favorite wins, and the second and third choices run 4th and 5th...and still no one hits the super high five!

25 Mar 2012 7:42 PM
longwaytomay

Draynay,

Nice call in the Sunland. I knew when they went that fast early that Daddy had a good chance. Didn't bet him but I have in my RTR stable. Can't wait for next weekend to see who is for real and who is not. Union Rags needs to show me at 1 1/8th before I jump on the bandwagon. He does look like a man against boys. Time will tell.

25 Mar 2012 8:27 PM
2:24

Draynay - well done on the Sunland Derby exacta and race analysis.

25 Mar 2012 8:27 PM
Draynay

Bob, never take on a expert.  I have traveled the world, first class of course and I can tell you taking on a expert seldom ends well.  However, I will give you your chance to look foolish.  The Sunland Derby sets up well for Daddy Nose Best.  Lot's of speed to the inside and they will be in a mad dash for sure but cutting the last turn a few of these will be tired and expect Daddy Nose Best to be there picking them off and finishing first in front of Isn't He Clever.  Remember, I am never wrong.

Draynay 23 Mar 2012 11:18 PM

Now you understand why I am a handicapping master !!!

25 Mar 2012 8:40 PM
KY VET

WAKE UP PEOPLE!!! Its too late! Quit talking about these slow horses like prospective, or these weak prep races.......theres only a hadful that can win the derby.....whats wrong with you? This is the DERBY!! you need to have the goods! you cant improve 10 lenghts in one race.....it takes about 105 beyer.,..theres only a few that are close enough to get there!!!! WAKE UP!!!!

25 Mar 2012 8:49 PM
Trebloc

Draynay,  well done.  Very disappointed in Castaway not hitting the board and getting into the Derby.  Not sure what the jockey was thinking going so #$#$ fast!

25 Mar 2012 9:11 PM
furlongs

Hey Mr. Perfect,

You buy tickets for Breeder's Cup from someone on here!!!! Yeah Mr. Big Shot I mean wow that's funny glad you get your tickets second hand cause poor me gets mine directly from Greg Bush at Churchill Downs at cost of course when they race the Breeders Cup in KY, and they are always 3rd floor finish line between 315-318 and its been that way since the late 1990's. If I had as much money as you LOL traveling the world first class such as you do LOL I wouldn't need to be buying tickets from a person on a blog online! Wow you are so bush league it is starting to become funny. Still waiting on the proof you bet $2000 on Mo in the Classic.... sure you will show the tickets anytime now, Mr. Perfect!

25 Mar 2012 10:25 PM
Jason Shandler

Settle down Dray, you didnt do anything extraordinary in the Sunland Derby. I had the exacta too; watch THS. It wasnt a hard race to hit if you didnt like Castaway. And it only paid $39.

Daddy Nose Best has now won twice at nine furlongs and has done so professionally and willingly. He is a legit contender in my book. Big question now: Finding a rider. Julien wont be there anymore to give him the perfect ride. I dont want Nakatani, someone who is patient and consistent.

25 Mar 2012 10:33 PM
mz

KY VET, I would like to congratulate you on your delicately  worded but eloquently reasoned comments of 8:49 p.m.  I found them worthy of comparison to many, if not most, of the comments made by many of the Republican candidates in their debates.  Are you ghost writing for any of them?  Your style fits right in.

25 Mar 2012 11:04 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I'll tell you right now: Prospective is a genuine and tough horse but is difficient in class and therefore has no shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.

When will you pick a winner in these Preps Pal?  How can your handicapping of the Kentucky Derby be trusted when you can't even spot ONE winner in the Preps?

You have an opportunity to make amends this comng weekend in the Florida and Louisianna Derbies.  I know you are going to try to beat Union Rags in the Florida Derby ...good luck with that!!! I've made public my selections in Jason's previous blog (3rd posting from the top).  I fancy Discreet Dancer to return to his winning ways against Mark Valeski and company in the La Derby. Lets see you try to beat the a member of the Todd Squad here and I'll also be watching out for your attempt to beat Gemologist in the Wood Memorial (with Alpha? LOL)on April 7.  

You've got to face the cold facts that sometimes you just can't beat the chalk. In cases like these you look for and propose the exotics rather than exposing yourself to being an extremist handicapper bordering on the ridiculous.  Your knowledge of the game demands a more moderate approach to handicapping my friend. Think about it.

25 Mar 2012 11:05 PM
Bob from Boston

Dr. Dray,

I will be the first to admit that you were better than a dart toss today.  Congrats.  Keep up the good work.  I want a winner come May 5.  In fact, if you recall (and I know mz and Paula do) I wished you all a Happy New Year with a life changing win at the track.  It must come May 5.  If not, I will be forced to go to work on May 7.  I have already picked out the poster with whom I am going to bet on May 5.  Keep the tips coming.  As for that NYTs article, that is one ugly view of this beautiful sport.  A national governing body with a spine is needed.  Too many injured jockeys and horses due to greed.

25 Mar 2012 11:11 PM
Ranagulzion

Jason,

You did a fair handicapping job with the Sunland Derby but the Spiral was a disaster and here's why.  Both yourself and Tom Lamara admitted to being almost clueless about the race. I think that That Handicapping Show should be about some knowledgeable handicapping rather than a shot in the dark as you both did with the Spiral. I don't expect you to always get it right, nobody does ...except perhaps (Draynay and KY VET? LOL).  

If you know very little about the horses in a race you should have guest handicappers who know about the chances of the horses or else omit that particular race. I would think that your show is intended to give the horseplayers an edge.

25 Mar 2012 11:24 PM
Ranagulzion

KY VET,

You are telling everyone on here that they should wake up to your top five but have you awakened to Daddy Nose Best?  That was a fairly fast Sunland Derby and DNB is an out and out stayer and battle tested colt.

25 Mar 2012 11:28 PM
JayJay

I have no idea what made Bejarano go head to head with Ender Knievel.  That was a very poorly ridden race.  Having said that though, I don't think I'll have Castaway in my derby tickets since I don't know if he's even going to make the field with a lot of big purse preps coming up.  That was very disappointing.  I'm thinking now that Baffert should've probably given the mount to Martin Garcia who rode Princess Arabella.  PA ran Todd's horse to the ground, who barely got 2nd.

Jason : Castaway was the only legit contender in that race, just like you said, DNB will NOT have Julien to ride him in the KY Derby.  That reason alone tells me he's not going to win or even hit the board in the derby.  He'll probably get Shaun Bridgmohan.

Draynay / KY VET : Here's more from today :

www.facebook.com/.../set

GP P3 paid over 1200.  Los Alamitos paid over 800.00.  Good hit on Daddy's Nose Best, that was a big payout.  LOL

Draynay : You can analyze / handicap races here on the blog, the fact is, I'm showing up with high payout tickets without reading the form or spending time analyzing races like you do.  The only hit you have so far was a 7-2 win and that's after talking and talking and talking about your analysis.  I would take my winning tickets over your babble.  You're obviously obssessed with analysis but so far, you haven't produce ANYTHING worth listening to . LOL

26 Mar 2012 12:11 AM
JayJay

Draynay : I guess my previous post about my winning tickets from yesterday didn't make it here.  Check out my photo album if you want to see what a CHEAP ticket that PAYs looks like - my bets from Santa Anita 4th race yesterday. :)

26 Mar 2012 12:20 AM
Stevebiscuit

Draynay, get over yourself. Castaway was an easy toss.

26 Mar 2012 12:28 AM
JayJay

Here's a classic analysis from Draynay :

Chief I will be betting on the the 7th race Sunday at Gulfstream.  I like the 3 horse Impatient Bride.  She is coming down and a little and would like to get dry ground and a good start.  3rd Start off the layoff and a solid work tells me she is ready from the inside post.  I think Sanchez has this horse figured out and will get her into the action quickly.

Draynay 24 Mar 2012 5:34 PM

The horse is still running, just goes to show that your handicapping abilities are a JOKE!!!

26 Mar 2012 12:36 AM
Mike Monarchos

Draynay,

I was going to give ya credit for the Sunland Derby exacta, but ya blew your own horn a little too much! I do agree with ya though that Montana is the best pro QB of modern time.

I saw Prospective in all 3 of his races at Tampa Bay Downs. His time in the TB Derby was very good. Only about a fifth off of Street Sense's record.

He has a good foundation under him, and the Tampa track conditions horses well for the Kentucky Derby. If he goes to the Wood I think he's third behind Gemologist and Alpha. But Monarchos was also third in the Wood and won the Derby.

Draynay, Union Rags is 17 hands, but I think El Padrino is too. It will be a good race!

26 Mar 2012 1:25 AM
JayJay

KY VET : Check your blood pressure man, I swear, you're typing looks like you're about to pop a vein talking to people on blogs.  NO ONE has been declaring the winners of these preps as winners of the KY Derby.  You're the only obssessed about already picked horses that will win the Derby.  Most of us have not picked any one because WE (at least most of us) knows that we have to wait until the post positions have been drawned to even start picking the winner, you also have to watch the horses during post parade for any tell.   You, like Draynay have already picked your winner for the Derby, just like an amateur would.  WAKE UP !!!!! What's wrong with you ??

26 Mar 2012 1:54 AM
Jason Shandler

Ranag: We had no PPs and not all of the probables at the time of the show. It was impossible to handicap the race. Get a clue.

26 Mar 2012 7:44 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

LAZMANNICK I was hoping someone would make those comparisons.I have one thing to ad, last year 2 other colts that ran in the Spiral made it to the Derby.I think the competition that the times and figures are run against is important.Lets see who else comes out of this race.One other side note, AK is of European bloodlines while WTDW is of US breeding.

26 Mar 2012 8:24 AM
Sylvester

I've been saying all along that a horse under the radar is going to win the KY Derby and it now looks like that horse is Daddy Nose Best. He's got a very good chance.

Jason, what do you think about Chad Brown skipping the Rampart? Do you really think it's because Awesome Feather isn't training well or they're scared of losing to Awesome Maria?  If they're going to pull that garbage they may as well sell her to the Moss' and ship her to CA where the competition is and always has been suspect to say the least so they can protect her record.

26 Mar 2012 10:32 AM
2:24

Jason - I too think Daddy Nose Best is a contender in Kentucky.  Like you, also wondering about the rider.  Given it's Ausmussen, good chance that it is Robby Albarado?  What about Borel?  Know he has had his troubles recently but you certainly cannot question his timing at Churchill Downs.  Think Borel might be available once Take Charge Indy doesn't qualify.  Has Garrett Gomez picked up a ride yet for the Derby?  Any thoughts on who Velasquez will ride in the Derby?

26 Mar 2012 10:52 AM
Aaron McC

Re: the NY Times article several have mentioned.  

Joe Drape, the main sports writer at the Times writing about Horse Racing, hardly seems like a serious racing journalist.  Ive read his articles fairly consistently.  His coverage of the Triple Crown is generally spotty at best. His perspective, to me, feels like that of an outsider, with little attachment to the sport, or knowledge about it. His only serious horse racing journalism is "exposes" of this sort.  I appreciate this one, mainly because he actually includes the voices of insiders, especially the jockeys. In general, though, Drape seems more invested in tearing the sport down, than building it up.  

However, until those involved in the industry start taking a more critical look at their sport, and become involved in speaking to those outside the sport through serious public relations campaigns that reflect their passion, knowledge, and also reveal serious attempts at reform, outsiders will continue to speak to the mainstream, including the potential fans out there.

I wish that someone like Lenny Shulman here at Blood Horse could be given a platform to speak to an outsider audience.  From what I can tell, watching the "And They're Off" segments, he clearly loves the sport, but also is invested in examining it critically.      

26 Mar 2012 12:06 PM
Draynay

Sorry Jayjay I guess I should have chosen the 9 to 5 chalk and bragged about that horse.  In case you missed it my pick was going off at a bit higher price.  I find maiden races are a good time to take some chances.  Maybe you missed it but in the Sunland I called it gate to wire and my 200 to win and 50 dollar exacta on Daddy Nose Best paid off very nicely.  The 24$ wheel didn't pay off at Gulfstream but I will somehow get over it.

26 Mar 2012 12:12 PM
Draynay

I will take a 10 dollar horse and a 20 exacta for a dollar all day long.  Next time just say thank you Jayjay.

26 Mar 2012 12:14 PM
josh

Congrats to Dray and Jason for your wins. I did well at turfway, but lost it all at sunland, oh well at least I'm humble about it.

Both horses are live horses come derby day. DNB is a grinder, and I agree with Jason, Julian is the perfect rider for him, without him he could have lost his last 2 races.

Went the Day Well is a little green, but I am glad to connections are not scared to race him again, 2 weeks before the derby, hope it works out for them.

I hope Baffert gets well soon.

26 Mar 2012 12:24 PM
Draynay

Bob, Jason has tried to get me on his show as a guest handicapper many times.  However, because of my contract with the Neworks and with the casinos in Vegas I am not allowed to appear.  But we haven't given up and we are still working on making it happen.  Mike, let me tell you El Overrated is no Union Rags.  Union Rags just needs to get in the gate at the Derby and it's all over.  He is just too good for these horses.  It has been obvious for quite some time.  Daddy Nose Best with 2 wins at 1 1/8th will have to be on your tickets for sure.  He will get a chance to rest and train and his best race should be his next one.

26 Mar 2012 12:25 PM
Paula Higgins

I heard Bob Baffert had a possible M.I. and had stents put in after being hospitalized in Dubai. I am sure Sheikh Mohammed is getting him state of the art medical care. I wish him the a speedy recovery.

26 Mar 2012 1:30 PM
Carlos in Cali

The Maryland Jockey Club announced March 26 “the return of Kegasus as Lord of the Preakness InfieldFest and centerpiece of its 2012 advertising campaign.”

“We are excited that Kegasus is back and look forward to his character evolving in 2012,” MJC president Tom Chuckas said.

A mascot that is half-man and half-horse, Kegasus was criticized by one Maryland lawmaker for portraying a negative image.

This year, Pegasus will be joined by UniCarl, which the MJC said “is part human, part unicorn, part personal assistant, and part personal trainer. UniCarl and Kegasus met at the Genius Bar in the Towson Town Center’s Mac Store in May 2011 and have been traveling the world together ever since. He will be seen both in the television advertisements and promoting InfieldFest during the grassroots events.”

The sign of the Apocolypse is among us! lol

26 Mar 2012 1:54 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : I don't know the history between you and Coldfacts but you seem to diss his handicapping a lot but I don't think you've picked any winners yourself.  At least not BEFORE they won a prep (maybe I'm wrong).  Case in point, you never mentioned anything about Prospective before he won the TBD, but now you talk about him like you've been following him for quite some time.  There was also Gemologist whom I don't recall getting any mention from you until he ran that allowance race and you started calling him better than El Padrino and a threat to Union Rags.  And now, you're telling KY VET that DNB is a legitimate contender ?

I remember you did the same thing with QR, after he won and set records at GP...  n den, came the Classic.  You almost tripped on yourself backpedalling on that horse after the race.

Anyway, who's your pick in the Floriday Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies ?  No need for analysis, just your picks :)

I'm sticking with El Padrino, Creative Cause, Hansen.  I'm going to wait to see how Union Rags run in the FL Derby and Gemologist in the Wood before I jump on their bandwagons with both feet.  I think UR might be the real deal but until I see him run 9 furlongs, I'll try and hold back and not get too excited.  The only thing the prep races will tell you is who gets the graded earnings to get to the big dance, we all have to wait until at least a couple days before when post positions are drawn.  I may think El Padrino (he has to win the FL Derby of course) is the best 3 yr old right now but if he draws the 1 hole, he will not be in any of my tickets, in fact, any horse that draws the 1 hole or the 20 hole will not be in any of my tickets regardless of who it is lol.  There's too many variables to consider than just the race times and how these horses perform in the prep races.  IMO, the derby is mostly 70% luck, 20% ability and 10% jockey (have to find the best spot and quickly.)

26 Mar 2012 1:55 PM
Householder

Really enjoyed the Bloodhorse.com Alysheba slide show today.  

26 Mar 2012 2:18 PM
JayJay

Draynay : Pick the chalk and brag about the horse ??  Isn't that what you always do ??   I think it's time for another visit with the shrink...

How about you post your winning tickets on DNB ?  I'm sure you were so proud of it that you must've taken a pic.  Otherwise, people will think you're all blog and don't really make any bets. LOL.

26 Mar 2012 2:29 PM
Ranagulzion

Trinniberg was nominated to the Triple crown lately ...wow ...talk about adding sugar & spice and something nice to the Kentucky Derby mix. Interesting indeed.

26 Mar 2012 4:11 PM
Draynay

A son of Big Brown goes for 1.3 million !  Go Big Brown go !!!

26 Mar 2012 4:40 PM
KY VET

These horses that have been running the last couple weeks have no chance....Daddy knows best? really? why like him? you people are amazing.....this is the derby! and those top 5 are not my picks...they are the only ones close enough to improve enough to win the derby.

26 Mar 2012 5:09 PM
KY VET

The guy actually takes pictures of winning tickets......doesnt use a form to handicap......just "guesses"........these are the people that make a nice living for me.....gamblers! I study hours a day......its hard work......i win because it isnt luck!

26 Mar 2012 5:14 PM
Householder

After Baffert's heart attack we all have to cheer for Game on Dude to represent well.  G.O.D. reminds me a lot of Well Armed.  He's tough in the lane. Hope he had a good flight.  He will run well fresh.

And what can be said of The Factor?  He has to be the fastest horse on the planet right now.  

He's been so dominant at Santa Anita and the Malibu was a thing of beauty followed up by a victory over the Breeder's Cup Sprint champ.   All systems go for that one.  

26 Mar 2012 6:48 PM
Householder

According to the Los Angeles Times (3/34/12)

Santa Anita leads the California tracks in horse racing deaths with almost double the rate as the state's other 3 tracks (Del Mar, Hollywood, Golden Gate) all of which use synthetics.

26 Mar 2012 7:08 PM
Draynay

Fairgrounds 8th race on Saturday bet the house on my Derby favorite NEHRO for the win !!!  Tough field but Nehro simply too tough.

26 Mar 2012 8:17 PM
Draynay

Saturday DD Nehro and Slow Pace.  Slow Pace will not be chasing Golikova here.

26 Mar 2012 9:12 PM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay,

Clodfacts and I have mutual respect for each other, notwithstanding that we spar heavily, throwing hard 'punches' at each others selections and points of view. My last post directed to him was well intentioned and meant to encourage him to rethink his 'wild & extreme selections' which have been bordering on the ridiculous after the results are in.

I'm not one to blow my own trumpet since I regularly post my selections for anyone who cares to take note. Apart from the chalk that were Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth and El Padrino in the Risen Star, I was the only one (to my knowledge) who posted the 7/1 winner of of the Swale Stakes, Trinniberg. Also I strongly touted Optimizer before his 27/1 runner up showing in the Rebel. Clearly you have not been paying attention.

Gemologist has always, I repeat always been on my Derby Dozen form day one. In fact my good friend Coldfacts and I started debating the Triple Crown shortly after the Breeder's Cup last year when I numbered Gemologist among my futurity fancies, with which he disagreed. Where have you been buddy?

I have taken notice of Daddy Nose Best because he is a Northern Dancer line colt that has come to hand, and I'm on record repeatedly (mostly in my debates with Coldfacts) as saying that a Northern Dancer line colt will win the Derby this year. My top twelve are dominated by descendants of the late great Canadian Bred sire.

You misunderstand and misrepresent my posting on Prospective.  I have never fancied him as a top Derby horse, just a consistent and hard knocking 2nd tier contender/pretender.

Regarding my fancies for the remaining preps: Union Rags is untouchable in the Florida Derby. I believe that Take Charge Indy and El Padrino should follow him home in that order BUT would not be surprised to see Fort Loudon finally spring the upset for the exacta spot. I don't think that the connections of El Padrino want him involved in another gut-wrenching stretch duel in his final prep, therefore don't be surprised to see him occupy a non-threatening minor placing in the Florida Derby. In any case, he cannot outrun Union Rags, plain and simple.

Mark Valeski over Windsurfer in the Louisianna Derby

Gemologist is unstoppable in the Wood Memorial.

I'll await the list of entrants for both the Santa Anita and Arkansas Derby before posting my selections.

One of the things that I enjoy doing in this sport is spotting the special talents early and getting on their waggon before all the "waggonists" arrive. I was among the first (I remember only one other poster, Criminal Type) to spot Union Rags as my future Derby horse last year immediately after the Saratoga Special (his maiden win was not enough to convince me). In past years there have been others, Big Drama, Quality Road, Big Brown, Eskendereya and Uncle Mo. I was a bit late getting on Rachel Alexandra's waggon; spotted Zenyattas early enough but didn't like her easy passage campaign from as far back as the year she lost the HOTY vote to Curlin. Check my record jay jay and adjust your view.

26 Mar 2012 10:33 PM
Ranagulzion

jay jay,

Check my post in Jason's previous column (third post from the top) and you'll see that I had Daddy Nose Best as the winner of the Sunland Derby.

26 Mar 2012 10:38 PM
El Kabong

Carlos in Cali,

Heathens have gathered around may poles for centuries with out continents going to war.

It take divine inspiration for acts of apocalypse to emerge if history is our guide to human behavior. Let the villagers bathe in sunlight and ale for a day or is that too much to ask? :)

Oh, and bring back the sanican dash!

26 Mar 2012 10:44 PM
El Kabong

Carlos in Cali,

Heathens have gathered around may poles for centuries with out continents going to war.

It take divine inspiration for acts of apocalypse to emerge if history is our guide to human behavior. Let the villagers bathe in sunlight and ale for a day or is that too much to ask? :)

Oh, and bring back the sanican dash!

26 Mar 2012 10:44 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Trying to handicap a race with so many unknown quantities while trying to spot a long shot was not a smart idea.”

How much did the exacta with Went The Day Well and Holiday Promise return? Let me help you $245.40. How much did the winner pay?  Let me help you, $12.40 as the third choice. Below is my post above about Holiday Promise:

“Holiday Promise: If there is going to be a major upset in the Spiral this colt could be the one that light up the tote board. His dam line suggests turf or synthetic is in his future big time. His dam sire Miswaki needs no introduction. Just think Sea The Star and Galileo. His second and third dams were sire by Nijinsky and Blushing Groom. These dam sires are all great turf influence. In his last race at the Big A he was spinning his wheels. He must be turf/synthetic horse as he did not look comfortable on the dirt. He is worth the risk. (Unknown Unknown)”

While there are those who Monday morning quarter back, I prefer to post my analysis and selections ahead of races and accept the results.  Holiday Promise was sent off at an irritable 25-1. Normally when I like a horse I play an exactor box with all. The 25-1 was ridiculous if anyone spent the time to evaluate the colt’s last race and pedigree.

“The result of the race made you look like an amateur, especially because you missed the most obvious clue to spotting the likely winner.”

Two of the five colts in my post finished 2nd & 3rd. One was a 25-1 shot. Not bad for an amateur. I did not like Went The Day Well but could not ignore the fact that he very well presented and he was sired by a grandson of Mr. Prospector. There is world of difference when one analyses a race without seeing the contenders. This colt looked very good and was part of my all bet.

“Obviously your day didn't go well (LOL).  Better luck next time buddy”

When a wager is placed and the gates open everyone is in a potential loss position until the race is over and decided. I am prepared to lose when I wager. I never cry over spilt milk I just pour myself another cup. I was not in a loss position on Saturday as the exacta cover my losses on the other bets.

26 Mar 2012 10:45 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“I'll tell you right now: Prospective is a genuine and tough horse but is difficient in class and therefore has no shot at winning the Kentucky Derby”

Why I am not surprised? He is from the A P Indy sire line that is affected by a Late Development Syndrome. Well, your Late Development Syndrome is on full display below:

HOLY BULL (Glll)  - Algorithms by Bernardini - A P Indy

TAMPA BAY DERBY - Prospective by Malibu Moon - A P Indy

WHITERS - Alpha by Bernardini - A P Indy

RISEN STAR - El Padrino - Pulpit - A P Indy

COUNT FLEET- Alpha by Bernardini - A P Indy

GOTHAM - Hansen  by Tapit - Pulpit by A P Indy

The colts above with the exception of Algorithms are all capable of winning the Derby.

“When will you pick a winner in these Preps Pal?  How can your handicapping of the Kentucky Derby be trusted when you can't even spot ONE winner in the Preps?”

Out OF Bound won the Sham and Algorithms won the Holy Bull. The handicapping of the Derby is quite different from any other race. I am sure you know this..

“You have an opportunity to make amends this coming weekend in the Florida and Louisiana Derbies”

I will certainly post my analysis and selection for both races. I can confidently predict that Union Rags will be beaten. Discreet Dancer is not listed in the LA Derby field. A very wise decision by his trainer! While I have no confidence in Alpha trainer’s program, the colt is bred to run all day. He will defeat Gemologist handily if his trainer is capable of presenting him to run his ‘A ‘race. That said there are two other colts in the Wood that I am high on i.e., Tiger Walk and The Lumber Guy.

“In cases like these you look for and propose the exotics rather than exposing yourself to being an extremist handicapper bordering on the ridiculous.”

Only ridiculous people wager on horses. A race is won after it is contested and the official sign is posted. You have conceded the FL Derby to Union Rags before the race is contested. This is a rather dangerous policy in a sport of glorious uncertainties, where past performances are no guarantee for future success. Have you not learnt anything from Uncle Mo and Secretariat Wood Memorial defeats? Friends Lake a well bred son of A P Indy paid $72 in the FL Derby. I guess I exposed myself as being an extremist handicapper when I wager him. I also exposed myself when I coupled Shackleford at 60-1 with Dialed In when others said I was crazy. I wagered Pleasant Prince at 25-1 and got beat by a nose. What can I say I am an extremist! Take Charge Indy is another well bred son of A P Indy that will contest the FL Derby. I will be wagering him and the other the Late Development Syndrome colt El Padrino since this group lead with wins in Derby preps.

26 Mar 2012 11:35 PM
HotRocket

Has anyone done a study determining what class of horse is breaking down/dying? Perhaps there needs to be a rule limiting the number of races a cheap claimer can run or minimum days between starts?! How bought all claimers pass vet test before each race? Maybe tracks should stop recruiting horses to act as filler in races so they can fill crappy race cards? Fine the track maintenence guys for messing up tracks? Polytrack/tapeta/fake dirt racing sucks in my opinion. Injuries happen in all sports - that's just the way it is. The Times article was biased & misleading - propoganda by monkeys with an agenda. On the Derby, Union Rags is a physical speciman - a wow looking animal. Creative Cause is a freight train. Waiting to see another step it up. Time to see who can run 1 1/8th miles - final preps will seperate the contenders from the pretenders. Nice picks on Sunland Derby DRAYNAY - not too tough but cold exacta was good call. Solid favs this weekend....who finishes 2nd/3rd?

27 Mar 2012 2:46 AM
JayJay

Thoughts and prayers to Bob and his family.  Wishing him a full recovery.

KY VET : So far you're all TALK (or type.)  Just post your picks and show us how you pick winners after studying for hours and studying hard.  What are you so afraid of ??  Why not just post your picks ??  Just like that one time you posted your picks in 11 races, you managed to pick ONE winner. Yeah, that's a nice way to make a living.  If you were actually betting GP and Tampa Bay and Santa Anita or even Los Alamitos, it means I've already taken your money.  Thanks!!  

At least Draynay picked a winner this time with DNB, you, you sit on the sidelines babbling about how good you are when you haven't picked anything worth bragging about.  You're officially worse than Draynay, yeah I know that's harsh, but it's true LOL.

27 Mar 2012 3:35 AM
Draynay

Union Rags is a monster plain and simple I have no plans on betting against this horse as long as he is running against 3 year old horses.  El Overrated will be exposed in the Florida Derby.  Mark V. is the real deal and should have been the winner in his last.  I see him moving forward and winning big.  Look for Nehro to dominate this very good field and stamp himself as the older horse to beat this year.

27 Mar 2012 2:02 PM
Draynay

Mark V. is much the best here but there is going to be a lot of speed in here and it will be important not to get too close to it.  The Fairgrounds is a tiring track so I look for Mark V to open up at the top of the stretch and will have to hold off a hard charging Rousing Serman who's style didn't matter much at the Santa Anita Speedway but if Mike times it right could bring a little scare into Mark V.   I will box them for the Exacta and have WP money on Mark V.  Don't get sucked into all the speed in this race it will not be around at the end.  If you want to play a Tri add in Arm Force.  Good luck.

27 Mar 2012 2:49 PM
2:24

Dray - Rosie and Pants on Fire will beat Nehro to the wire by a head.

In the Louisiana Derby, I like Mark Valeski as well.

In the Florida Derby, I like Union Rags.

27 Mar 2012 3:38 PM
It aint easy being good!

I feel like some of you have been sleeping under a rock for awhile. El Padrino is overrated. Sabercat, lasion pass pass! This weekend races are so boring Rags and Mark V in a laugher ......big deal. Get your popcorn ready for the wood.next week. If you can get 8-1 on Street life take it to the bank he is a stone cold closer and is the most exciting runner that 2012 has to offer. He is a beast in the making and his bandwagon is empty! Get on it people! He will at least be 2nd in the wood marks my words. Did anyone see his last race or the race before that...wake up people!

27 Mar 2012 4:29 PM
KY VET

DRAY has picked the favorite in both big races this weekend........thats it people, he has figured out this game....bet the horse that ran the best, and bet them!  never been figured out before......BEGINNER!

27 Mar 2012 4:54 PM
KY VET

jay....why not try to use a form? learn to handicap if you bet on horses.....why not try to learn? you just guess?

27 Mar 2012 5:49 PM
KY VET

ranag is smarter that most on here....at least he goes on other factors, not just breeding!

27 Mar 2012 5:50 PM
KY VET

DRAYNAY...... just for the record, why dont you like el padrino?  Got to hear this one.....

27 Mar 2012 5:51 PM
Carlos in Cali

The sprinter Discreet Dancer is off the Derby Trail.. imagine that!

27 Mar 2012 6:30 PM
Householder

HotRocket.  According to the LA Times it looks like U.C. Davis would be to go to regarding data on breakdowns and class of the horse as they are contracted with all California tracks to perform the necropsy on any horse who breaks down.  If this has been the common practice of CA tracks for over ten years there should be tons of data.  I've heard what the times has said before.  Most life ending injuries start out as undetected ones (like hair line fractures) and the horse is injured and then is put back on the track.  Do the people surrounding the horse know they are injured? (e.g., Claimer dropping in class to sell)  That's the data that will be a little more difficult to get.  

27 Mar 2012 6:50 PM
Draynay

My top 3 are Creative Cause, Union Rags and Mark V.  I felt Mark V. was fouled by El Overrated and mugged all the way down the stretch in his last.  El Overrated is slow just like Pyro was.  I am sure Jerry Bailey will love him.  El struggled with Mark V. and the trainer admitted he was NO WAY near fully cranked and with Mark going 2 turns again look out.  My favorite horse Union Rags faces a good bunch but he is a much better horse than these and with a step forward he is on his way to winning the Derby.  KY VET I bet Mark when no one bet on him so I don't want to hear it.  Sometimes you have to bet the favorite because the others can't win.

27 Mar 2012 7:28 PM
Householder

HotRocket.  Susan Stover DVM U.C. Davis Veterinary Orthopedic Research lab seems to be the expert on muscular-skeletal injuries which account for some 80% of fatalities.  The lab has examined 5,000 fatalities since 1991.  The research is out there.  She seems to be an advocate of the theory that no one single incident in the likely cause, but rather pre-existing conditions over time lead to break downs.  Better identfication, rest, rehab, track management etc. etc. is the key.  

27 Mar 2012 8:31 PM
Ranagulzion

KY VET,

That was a huge compliment you paid me coming from "the Pro" on here (LOL). Thanks Buddy, seriously.

Should I now assume that I've graduated from the "You People" class whom you scourge with almost every posting? (LOL)

Carlos in Cali,

I don't get your snickering at Discreet Dancer's withdrawal from the derby trail.  That colt is a classy individual and will be back later in the season to make some noise.  His deputy, Windsurfer, in the Louisianna Derby could possibly upset the favourite Mark Valeski FYI.

27 Mar 2012 9:01 PM
Mike Monarchos

Draynay,

El Padrino will be within a length of Union Rags, win or lose. Take Charge Indy for third. Race time will be 1:49.

27 Mar 2012 11:55 PM
JayJay

KY VET : I don't guess my bets, I play the odds, big difference.  Reading the form ??  What does the form really tell you?  Let me educate you, the form tells you how the horse ran the LAST time.  Some people can find tells reading the form, the only thing the form does is change my mind from my initial pick.  For me, it doesn't offer any SPECIAL information about the horses next race.  All it tells me is how they ran the last time and why do I want to read that ??  I look at the horse, I watch the post parade and play the odds.   I'm not putting down the form, I just don't think it's going to help me pick a winner.  I've posted winning tickets, all of those bets are from playing the odds - the jockeys, the pedigree.  You should try it, maybe you'll win some money.  For someone who claims to win a lot of money, you haven't posted any longshot picks.  Somehow, I think you're like Draynay, you roll your bets to the next chalk.

I had Rousing Sermon as my pick for the LA Derby but I'm not liking the chances now since Draynay put his curse on him.  I'll probably still bet him if he goes off at 10-1 or higher.  He's in my RTTR.  The other horse I like and I think is sitting on a big race is Shared Property.  I'll have to see how they look in the post parade though.  Cigar Street might be the real deal speedwise but I don't know enough of the other horses to see who's going to go with him, maybe he'll try and rate but so far I don't see any one that would go with him based on his last race.

Draynay : Did you even have Mark V. before his last race ??  Oh with regards to El Padrino "mugging" him, he lost, get over it.

28 Mar 2012 2:50 AM
JayJay

LOL Ranag, okay okay, you got me.  I wasn't really paying attention.  Well, just the most recent posts.  I had Gemologist in my radar for awhile now.  Him and Tizanexpense were the two Tiznow horses on the TC trail and I've been waiting for awhile to see a Tiznow colt go for the derby run and hopefully try and win the TC.  Having said that though, I've seen so many "beasts" that either gets injured or just didn't perform as expected.  I'm holding off getting too excited about Gemologist until I see him run against a top caliber horse (by that I mean, horses who have run in stakes, not allowance races).  He could be the next big thing in racing but until he wins the Wood convincingly, I'll hold back.  Again, even if he wins the Wood by 30 lengths, it doesn't mean he'll win the Derby, it just depends on how lucky he gets when the posts are drawn.

oh and KY VET, yes I know Ranag is smarter than you.  Thanks for the confirmation though.

28 Mar 2012 3:01 AM
iceman92

does anyone know where fly lexis fly is? he already won at 1.25+1.50 miles in south america.

28 Mar 2012 10:55 AM
Draynay

jayjay you are the first person I have met that can tell a horses pedigree by looking at them in the post parade.  Wow what talent.  Without a form you aren't handicapping.

28 Mar 2012 11:07 AM
Householder

Game on Dude draws post 14!  The trip to Dubai is now looking to be just bad luck all around for Baffert.  

28 Mar 2012 11:52 AM
Householder

Magic Johnson pays 2 billion for a team that has not been to the World Series since 1988!  Look for all the former and current Laker greats like Dennis Rodman and Meta World Peace to provide security.

28 Mar 2012 12:08 PM
Draynay

Trust me when I tell you El Overrated will be exposed by the future Derby winner Union Rags.

28 Mar 2012 12:23 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion, I don't "snicker". I was just gladly surprised they yanked a horse from the TC Trail because they knew he had no chance,especially with a sprinter like Discreet Dancer.I wish more connections did that with their charges,which leads me to your baffling endorsement of the pure sprinter Trinnisberg..

28 Mar 2012 1:00 PM
JayJay

Draynay : Heard of a program ?  They have it at EVERY track, well I don't know about calder, I heard that's where you bet your chalks.  If you were a real handicapper, you'd know about it.  There's a lot of information on it too.  I don't have to spend hours reading the form like you and your buddy KY VET. LOL

28 Mar 2012 2:11 PM
mr pibb

Sometimes you have to bet the favorite because the others can't win.

Draynay 27 Mar 2012 7:28 PM

draynay you continue to be a boob. Favorites win only around 35 to 36% of the time so you are a big loser when you choose chalk 99.5% of the time like you do anyway. You had no clue last year who to pick in the Derby so you punted and took the publics second choice come race time. Before the Derby when Nehro returned big money at big odds you hated him. Suddenly the public woke up and you followed like a little rat behind the pied piper. Too bad some like me chose AK and took home all the money you lost on win bets. Even cleaned up in the exotics. Keep on betting, you leave more for me to take.  

28 Mar 2012 2:51 PM
Union Buster

jayjay,

Spending hours trying to read the DRF or Brisnet PP's aka draynay only to pick the chalk anyway is as much a waste of time as listening to anything draynay has to say.

union on the rags will not win the KY Derby!!

28 Mar 2012 2:55 PM
It aint easy being good!

Seems like all you guys do on here is rip on each other! What happened to the analysis of upcoming races. You guys are all great just put up your bets this saturday and see what happens. Seriously though the constant bashing needs to stop its annoying.

28 Mar 2012 4:35 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay Im up 2-0,do you want to play another one.

28 Mar 2012 4:53 PM
Draynay

Mr. Pibb you are completely full of it.  SOMETIMES you have to bet on the favorite because the others can't win.  None of us like to eat 6 to 5 or 8 to 5 but what is the alternative when he is your winner ?  Things happen we all know that but 40 to 1 shots aren't winning that often.  It takes just as much courage to bet a 7 to 5 for a 100 bucks as it does a 8 to 1.  I see hundreds of broke people at the track every week and they are still telling me about the great 20 to 1 shot in the 6th.  And I was on Nehro before the Derby and you were on nothing.  Post a pick and handicap a race for us like I did last week posting a 10 dollar winner and a 20 dollar exacta for a dollar.  Post something and show us your handicapping abilities.

28 Mar 2012 4:54 PM
Draynay

4th race on Sunday at The Fairgrounds.  A very tough race but the post positions may help my choice.  Cash Refund is fast, very fast.  There is nothing in here that is going to run away from him.  He can run fresh and his trainer seems to be on fire right now.  His last work looks like he is locked and loaded.  Joe Hollywood will go to the lead but he may get some company from Soaring Stocks and if he does Cash Refund could get the perfect trip.  Cash Refund nips Soaring Stocks at the wire.  No need to thank me now, just send flowers.

28 Mar 2012 6:07 PM
Footlick

iceman92- as far as I know he is with Drysdale and may be pointing to the Belmont.

28 Mar 2012 6:25 PM
JayJay

I quote Draynay :

"  Post a pick and handicap a race for us like I did last week posting a 10 dollar winner and a 20 dollar exacta for a dollar.  Post something and show us your handicapping abilities.

Draynay 28 Mar 2012 4:54 PM"

This guy spent hours handicapping using the form, babbling about with his analysis.  All that wasted time for a $20 exacta.  I guess if you keep losing your money on win bets on chalks, $20 seems like a LOT.

Good luck on Cash Refund, I hope you hit something worth taking home this time.

Oh and yeah, you ARE full of it.  You weren't on Nehro when he came in 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to ArchArchArch.  I know because I had the exacta in that race and I wouldn't bet any horse you put your curse on lol.  You jumped on his bandwagon after he came in 2nd at big price.  I remember Jason picking this horse prior to the Arkansas Derby but jumped off him in the Arkansas Derby.  I believe you were touting Brethren in that race... remember Brethen ??  According to you, the sure winner of the TBD last year. LOL

I'm getting a little too excited for the Florida Derby, looking forward to seeing UR go against El Padrino.  He'll finally getting test that will show whether he's the real deal or another hyped up horse.  I still have questions whether he can get 9F but looks like there's probably going to be enough speed in this race for him to target.   Having said that though, I'm going with El Padrino over UR and throwing in some longshots :  Neck n Neck, News Pending and Take Charge Indy.

For LA Derby : I'll probably go with Rousing Sermon, Shared Property and Windsurfer over Mark Valeski and Cigar Street.  Obviously, this is the better race to bet vs. the FL Derby.  Just need some good racing luck and hopefully a longshot wins :)  Good luck all!

R.I.P. Bud.

28 Mar 2012 9:26 PM
Draynay

Remember this.  In all the prep races only 1 horse looked like he wanted to go beyond 1 1/8th.  That horse was Nehro.  If you think Dialed In will EVER pass Nehro you are nuts.  Nehro wins.

Draynay 06 May 2011 8:00 PM

A day BEFORE the Derby I chose Nehro.  Jayjay and others were all over Dialed In even after I told them again and again he was too slow.  Take a look back on how many thought my Nehro pick was nuts.  Dialed In ?  I still think he is running....lol.

28 Mar 2012 10:38 PM
KY VET

JAYJAY has been exposed as a "guess handicapper" not even worthy of a response....he doesnt even handicap! play the lotto and go home...................pretender!

28 Mar 2012 11:09 PM
Footlick

I knew a couple professional gamblers in the late 60's through the 70's.  They wouldn't touch any big race nor would they bet every day.  They were at the track for all workouts every day, and they were at the track every day, but they would mark certain horses and trainers and only bet when the odds and time was right.  They were people who scored big when they bet, really big.  They never told anyone who they were betting and it was their sole income.  Maybe times have changed,  As far as JayJay, the tickets are posted.  Who cares how the picks are decided.  It seems to work.  All the analysis in the world doesn't matter if the horses don't come in.  I had an Aunt who went to the track a couple times a year and never walked away with less than $300 profit.  Her technique?  She ran her fingers down the program and stopped when she felt a "vibration".  She never looked at the horse and she never looked at the odds.  Whatever works works.  Don't get down on someone's system if it is working for them, especially if they are doing better than you.

29 Mar 2012 10:59 AM
Weekend

Boring, Jason, do a new picks blog for the weekend, include Dubai. If I were to GUESS, Footlick will win the Dubai Challenge....

Keeneland is 8 days away. Go big or go home.

29 Mar 2012 11:19 AM
JayJay

KY VET : You've been exposed a while back as just all TALK.  If you're truly a pro, why not post your thoughts on the prep races ? Like Coldfacts and Ranagulzion or Laz or Gunbow ??  The fact is, you're the pretender, you like making yourself feel like a pro but you have no idea how to pick a winner.  Go find another hobby (or in your case, job)  Professional gambling isn't for you.  You're like one of those annoying people at the track, AFTER a race, they go " I knew that horse would win, I looked at his form and I knew he was the best horse etc, etc, etc""  but they have no bets or have the horse in any of their tickets.  They just like to feel like they know something about horse racing.  You're nothing but a waste of blogspace lol.

29 Mar 2012 12:54 PM
draynot

Nehro wins.

Draynay 06 May 2011 8:00 PM

Take a look back on how many thought my Nehro pick was nuts.

Draynay 28 Mar 2012 10:38 PM

FYI draynay Nehro LOST!! Never have I seen anyone pound themselves on the back so hard for picking a loser. You are certifiable. When Zenyatta barely got beat you said it was a whipping, Nehro gets beat by lengths and you call yourself a genius for picking a loser. Get over yourself.

29 Mar 2012 1:32 PM
the_wiz

Jason I agree on all counts. I have Archarcharch in my top 3 so my list of 5 longshots to use with my top 3 includes Animal Kingdom, Brilliant Speed, Stay Thirsty, Soldat, and Pants On Fire. I'd certainly consider using Decisive Moment if the track comes up wet only at 30/1 or higher. I really like Animal Kingdom the more I see and hear about him.

the_wiz 03 May 2011 3:18 PM

Yo draynay, I actually picked the winner at 20/1. Let me know when you pick a Derby winner that goes off at 20/1 or better. Until then break out that pink dress that you wore to those 3 proms your senior year and promised to wear to the Derby when Zenyatta won the Classic. We are still waiting for you to live up to your word. You are all talk and little substance.

29 Mar 2012 1:52 PM
gw bushwacker

I give you draynays final post before last years Derby. Hope it gives you as big a laugh at it did me.

"Let me give you the winning ticket for the Tri. for the Derby.  Box these 6 ( Nehro, Soldat, MMM, Santiva, Twice the Appeal, and Shackleford.)  Exatcta Box Santiva, Nehro, Soldat.  You can thank me later."

Draynay 06 May 2011 7:53 PM

This was a complete LOSING ticket. He didn't single nehro anywhere. He chose 30% of the field and came up with a losing bet. LMAO!!

29 Mar 2012 2:03 PM
Draynay

Draynot, my Derby horse went down and I was able to come back from the injury and use my expert abilities and years of training to pick Nehro.  The great thing about horse racing is 2nd place does matter when you are betting big money in the Derby.  The fact is many on here were all over Dialed In and I said he was not going to do a thing in the Derby from the start.  I was right like always.  I wasn't going to bring up the State Restricted Poly Champion but since you did I will agree with you.  She did get whipped didn't she.

29 Mar 2012 2:25 PM
Draynay

gw bushwanker, no my Tri Ticket and Exacta ticket was a loser.  I had 2nd, 3rd and 4th but no Animal Kingdome like most.  But my WP on Nehro was a very nice winner at 8.80 for Place !  You cashed nothing.  Stick around and learn I give free lessons to those with disabilities.  

29 Mar 2012 2:50 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay I have not made my pick for the 4th at FG on Sunday yet.Soaring Stocks and Traveling Man are cross entered for the Sir Shackleton on Saturday at Gulfstream,and I have two in mind and will make my final decision when I know who is running.

29 Mar 2012 5:57 PM
Draynay

Pants on Fire will run Nates Mineshaft into the ground setting up Nehro to romp.  End of story.

29 Mar 2012 6:26 PM
JayJay

LOL @ Draynay.  Seriously ???   "I give lessons..." for 8.80 PLACE money???  HAHAHA.  What a doob.   You're a scam, I feel bad for those people that actually pays attention to your picks, because it's not that hard to pick favorites, just look at the odds board lol.

How much place money did you put on Nehro ?  and how much money did you put on Calvin Borel ?  Don't lie now, you said last year that you ALWAYS bet Calvin Borel in the Derby.  You claimed to have money on him when Super Saver won, unless that was a lie too  (which would not be surprising).  Let's see the math.

I love longshosts, part of the thrill is picking a longshot that not many people pick.  When I see my longshot hit the wire first, it's a great feeling.  Specially when I'm the only one screaming when they're at the top of the stretch.  I can't say I jump and down like Draynay when a 6-5 wins.

29 Mar 2012 8:43 PM
Ranagulzion

Draynay,

Mission Impazible is the one to beat not Pants on Fire.

29 Mar 2012 9:07 PM
Draynay

Jayjay you and ranagulzion were BOTH all over Dialed In for the Derby.  After watching all the races for months and looking over all the horses again and again you came up with Dialed In.  Give me a break.  You laugh at 8.80 ?  You got 0.  I see all the long shot players at the track every week.  After the 5th race I can buy all of them with the change in my pocket.  Ranagulzion Nehro is the horse to beat.  Nates Mineshaft will be off on the lead but he isn't any faster than Pants on Fire.  At the top of the stretch Pants on Fire will wear down Nates and take the lead.  The quick pace will be just what Nehro has been looking for and will gobble them up in the last 200 yards.  Nehro wins !

29 Mar 2012 10:50 PM
Draynay

Jayjay do me a favor.  Name a single horse you are playing to win Saturday or Sunday that is over 10 to 1 morning line for the win.  Just 1 horse you are putting big win money on.  You claim to play all these big prices...name 1.

29 Mar 2012 10:52 PM
JayJay

Thanks Footlick, glad someone understands that there's a million ways to handicap.  As long as it's working, I'm sticking to my way of picking my bets.

29 Mar 2012 11:59 PM
Draynay

Wiz, give us a break.  Animal Kingdom wasn't in your top 3.  He was in your list of longshots.  He was in that list for a lot of people.  Rookie.

30 Mar 2012 11:42 AM
Draynay

Jayjay we know how you handicap.  I guess that explains Dialed In doesn't it......

30 Mar 2012 11:44 AM
JayJay

Draynay  :  With your win bets, I doubt you have any money left by the 5th race.  Dude, don't you get it ??  With all your posting of your picks, if you were betting $100 WP on them, you're on the red.  You haven't made any profit.  Not only can you NOT pick a winner, you don't even know how to bet your money to make profit.  You have a LOT to learn but I like bettors like you, you put your money in the pool for me to take.  Keep it up.

30 Mar 2012 12:34 PM

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