The Trinniberg Factor

Between injuries, workouts, the final Derby preps (if you want to call them that), and other happenings, not unexpectedly there was an overload of Derby news last week. Though it didn’t go unnoticed, there was one potentially major story that probably did not receive the attention that it deserved.

Last Saturday, the connections of Trinniberg went against their original plans and decided that the Teuflesberg colt will indeed run in the Kentucky Derby. For a horse that has about as much chance as winning as I do, the ramifications of that decision may play a major outcome in the eventual winner of the 2012 Derby. If you think that is an overstatement or I’m making too much of it, I’d like to take you back to both the 2001 and 2005 Kentucky Derbies.

In both of those races, there were front-running horses that changed the entire complexion of each of them. I’m of the opinion that Trinniberg’s presence could have the same effect this year.

In 2001, Songandaprayer came into the Derby off a win in the Fountain of Youth and a runner-up finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. He was sent off as a 35-1 longshot but still deserved a chance—after all, he had four two-turn races under his belt heading into the race. What wound up happening, however, changed the course of the entire race, and may have cost us a Triple Crown winner. With Aaron Gryder aboard, Songandaprayer broke like a shotgun from post 1 and proceeded to run the fastest half-mile (:44.86) and three-quarters (1:09.25) in Derby history. The end result was that anyone within five lengths of him early on had no chance of winning, including 9-5 favorite Point Given, who was sitting way too close under Gary Stevens and flattened out to finish fifth. Meanwhile, Monarchos, who raced in 13th through the early going, received the perfect ride under Jorge Chavez and picked up all the tiring horses in the stretch to win in 1:59.97, the second fastest time in Derby history. The rumors that John Oxley and John Ward sent Gryder a generous gift basket after the race have never been confirmed.

In 2005, a gelding named Spanish Chestnut, entered in the race as a rabbit for Bandini, came into the Derby off a win in the one-mile San Rafael and three unplaced, two-turn Derby preps after that, including a tiring sixth in the Blue Grass. In the Derby with Joe Bravo aboard, he ran ridiculous early splits—:22.28 opening quarter, :45.38 half-mile, and 1:09.35 three-quarters, which was the second fastest six furlongs in Derby history. Like Songandaprayer, he changed the complexion of the race. Nobody that ran with Spanish Chestnut early on finished any better than seventh, including favored Bellamy Road, who was third after the opening quarter, and wound up finishing seventh under Javier Castellano. The race set up perfectly not for Bandini, but for 50-1 Giacomo, who was 18th after three-quarters and came flying down the center of the stretch to pull the shocker. Afleet Alex, also running from off the pace in the early going, received a heady trip from Jeremy Rose but may have moved just a tad too soon and wasn’t quite good enough when finishing a close third. To this day, Jerry Moss and John Shirreffs, it is rumored, send Bravo, and owners Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor annual Christmas cards.

Both Songandaprayer and Spanish Chestnut had at least four two-turn starts on their résumés  heading into their respective Derbies, and though they were longshots, they had every right being in the races. Jockey error, at least in the case of Songandaprayer (Bravo was probably given explicit instructions), more than anything was what contributed to the ridiculous paces and changed the outcome of both races.

In the case of Trinniberg, I must ask, why is this horse being pointed to this race? He has seven starts in his career, none of them longer than seven furlongs. There is no question that he is a quality horse, but is clearly a miler-type and his presence in this Derby could have a profound effect on the outcome, not unlike 2001 and 2005. Consider the following quote from owner Shivananda Parbhoo made last Saturday: “With (Secret Circle) out of the race, I know there isn’t another horse in the race with the kind of speed my horse has. We’ll know after the first half-mile what the result will be. We’ll know, the jockey will know, and the rest of the field will know. I'm not worried about anyone else in the race if my horse gets in front."

Is there any inkling of a doubt what the plan for Trinniberg will be? If you try hard enough you can already hear Parbhoo's instructions to Willie Martinez in the paddock: “Run him as fast as you can, for as long as you can, and we’ll see what happens."

In looking at Trinniberg’s PPs, there is no doubt that he is a fast horse. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint he ran a ridiculous :20.96 quarter-mile at Churchill Downs before finishing a tiring seventh. With the exception of his last race in the Bay Shore, in every one of his races he has run his opening quarter in under :22 3/5 and a half-mile in under :46 1/5. In the majority of those races he ran :45 and change.

Granted, the horse is in good form. He won the March 10 Swale by six and the April 7 Bay Shore by three, but they were both at seven furlongs. Somehow, the connections are actually under the illusion that a horse that has never gone two turns in his life will get the early lead and take this field wire-to-wire. Apparently, everyone else in the world knows it’s not possible, but they are going to try it anyway.

I have no idea what the eventual outcome of Trinniberg’s presence will ultimately be. Maybe he’ll break poorly and he’ll be a non-factor from the start. But there is certainly the possibility that this horse is going to go out and run :22 and change, :45 and change and 1:09 and change. He might even still have the lead after a mile. Who knows? But one thing is for sure: If he runs as fast as he has been, anyone within a few lengths of him will be severely compromised, and it most certainly will give horses running from off the pace a much better chance.

Kentucky Derby 138 might very well be shaping up to be a rider's race. Yeah, you’ll need the horse, the trip, and some luck, but The Trinniberg Factor will make it that much more important for a heady rider to judge what is shaping up to be a very fast pace.

221 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Meghan

I feel bad for the poor horse. Hope he makes it out of the race okay.

24 Apr 2012 11:53 AM
Draynay

One of your best ever Jason and you're 100% right.  Trinni changes everything because the horse IS going to run a 46 flat and a 110.  Bode and Hansen will not be far behind because they can't be.  Speed is now guaranteed and with that Union Rags will be the first to pounce with Alpha and DNB close behind.  I think Gem and Union will be fighting it out for the lead at the top of the stretch with Alpha, DNB and Creative Cause giving chase.  I want to also go on the record that Trinni belongs in here and stranger things have happened in the Derby.  Getting a horse in the Derby is a once in a lifetime thing.  Some times you have to roll the dice.  I have many times and look how wonderful I am.

24 Apr 2012 11:57 AM
Pedigree Ann

Watching many of the 2-turn preps this spring, I have begun to wonder if the younger jockeys out there have the 'clock in their head' that was a major tool of the great riders of the past. Too many horses were allowed to run 48+or- first halves and go on to win on the lead.

Can these same jockeys figure out when a horse on the lead is going too fast and they need to let it go, pretend it isn't in the race? It would worry me if I liked a horse who prefers to be near the lead.

24 Apr 2012 12:08 PM
josh

GREAT analysis, Jason. You provided very sound evidence to your argument, and I completely agree with you. Trinniberg has no business in this race, but will run anyway. Changes the complexion of the race entirely. At this point horses that run close to front end are automatic tosses, Hansen, Bodemeister, Gemologist, Mark V. I'll Have Another, and Take Charge Indy. Those are some nice horses that are now compromised because of trinniberg. However, as horse racing typically is, we could all be fooled.

My top selections now are getting shifted around a little, I still think Union Rags will be on top though, and I'll move up Creative Cause, Dullahan, Went the Day Well,  Daddy Nose Best, and Sabercat (the latter 2 horses will hopefully be at juicy odds).

Now it comes down to post position. Toss the 1 horse!

24 Apr 2012 12:11 PM
steve from st louis

Since Go For Gin did it over  a sloppy track in 1994 (in :47.21), only War Emblem in 2003 (in :47.04)was in front after a half-mile and went on to win the Derby in the past 18 years.

So it won't be a surprise that the leader at the half-mile pole this year has little chance of running the other 19 horses off their feet. It doesn't matter whether that horse is Hansen, Trinniberg or Bodemeister, the winner will be reserved at the half (like Funny Cide in third), Silver Charm (in fourth), Thunder Gulch (in fifth) or as far back as Grindstone (in 15th at the half).

24 Apr 2012 12:28 PM
steve from st louis

Since Go For Gin did it over  a sloppy track in 1994 (in :47.21), only War Emblem in 2003 (in :47.04)was in front after a half-mile and went on to win the Derby in the past 18 years.

So it won't be a surprise that the leader at the half-mile pole this year has little chance of running the other 19 horses off their feet. It doesn't matter whether that horse is Hansen, Trinniberg  Bodemeister or some other free running 3-year-old, the winner will be reserved at the half (like Funny Cide in third), Silver Charm (in fourth), Thunder Gulch (in fifth) or as far back as Grindstone (in 15th at the half). This year will be no different. I don't think any of the top contenders want to make the pace. The one who can settle and stay reserved before leaving the backstretch has the best chance. All the front runners will get is tired and dirty.

24 Apr 2012 12:35 PM
steve from st louis

I appreciate the double listing but it wasn't THAT profound. I'm not that full of myself as some, OK as one, is  on here.

24 Apr 2012 12:44 PM
Snow

Jason,

Very credible analysis.  However, I would assume that Trinniberg's connections are hoping that the connections of the other 19 horses come to the same conclusion that you have and IF Trinniberg can get an easy lead, all things being equal, of say 48 and change and 1:12 and change then they won't catch him the last half mile.  Now, this probably is a huge assumption on their part in that can they really get this horse to go that slow in front of 150k screaming fans.  We'll see.  Anyway, it will be fascinating to watch the pace unfold.

24 Apr 2012 12:45 PM
Mike Monarchos

The jocks on Hansen and Bodemeister aren't stupid. They won't stay close to a sprinter. Mike Smith is in the Hall Of Fame. I think he knows a little about pace. he timed Zenyatta's finishes very well, except for her last race in the BC Classic.

That was fun watching Monarchos flying down the stretch again. He could have broken Secretariat's record, but I'm glad he didn't.

24 Apr 2012 12:47 PM
Draynay

2 things Mike M.  1st) Hansen and Bode will run with Trinni they don't rate at best they stalk. 2nd) Mike Smith timed his run right he just didn't have enough horse.  She got whipped get over it.

24 Apr 2012 1:06 PM
Rinzler

@ Mike Monarchos: Zenyatta did not take too well to the Churchill surface. She was struggling all race long to get a grip on the track. It's as if she were running on a backwards conveyor belt. Nice kick at the end but it was too late by then.

24 Apr 2012 1:31 PM
Rinzler

I wonder who is going to be the first to get hooked by Trinniberg. Funny that this one may get away long enough for him to finish in the exotics.

Strange things have happened in this race before....

24 Apr 2012 1:33 PM
Ranagulzion

Trinniberg belongs in this Derby.  He earned his way in and is a quality mystery horse because he's the out and out controling speed and he has incognito stamina influences, Herbager, Secreto and Tom Fool in his pedigree. He could scare a lot of the competition rounding the far turn. He has more natural speed and a higher cruise level than Songandaprayer or Spanish Chesnut.

Good stuff Jason.

24 Apr 2012 1:34 PM
Jason Shandler

The only mystery is if he will finish the race.

24 Apr 2012 1:44 PM
Ra1nmaker

Barns possibly running a deliberate burn no less than substandard rides, and even honest mistakes, can all combine in the quicksand like- "black hole"- destructiveness that is a pace meltdown. I have wondered about this as recently as the Santa Anita Handicap (if not several times since), in which Ultimate Eagle finished a disappointing tenth.

It is hoped, the better trainers and the jockeys they've chosen, will apply race-day tactics that make provision for all this.

Forewarned is forearmed--at least, in theory. But come the 138th Kentucky derby, the pressures of the moment including unbridled avarice and a thirst for fame can be the stuff that haunts Memory and thwarts even the workings of Destiny.

24 Apr 2012 1:46 PM
Carlos in Cali

There's only 3 confirmed front running types:

Trinniberg- who will lead the field for sure.

Hansen- will settle in 2nd.

Bode- will be placed right behind Hansen or vice-versa.

Then there's the rest of the field including TCI who don't have the kind of early speed the aforementioned 3 possess.

In 2001 & 2005,notice how the pace was being pressed by 3-4 longshots who were being ridden like it was a sprint..  we won't see that scenario played-out this year,simply because Hansen/Bode will be at least 3-4L behind Trinni and 3-4L ahead of the rest of the field going down the backstretch.I can't imagine either Dominguez or Smith pressing Trinniberg at any point during the race- they'll act as if he's not there knowing he'll more than likely be going too fast.If anything,Hansen and Bode will play cat-and-mouse with each other,playing no mind to the cheap speed.

Or,maybe it'll unfold like the year Big Brown won it.A lot of folks thought the pace would be blazing,but everybody took back because of the perceived speed.

I don't think they're intent on "sending" Trinniberg,they just know he'll be on the lead and hope he keeps going.IMO,the mid-pack types will be most effected while trying to keep-up because the field will be strung-out..

24 Apr 2012 1:50 PM
Sam Santschi

"She got whipped get over it."  A short nose after being way too far back and having to slightly pause in the stretch due to traffic is how I remember it.  True fans of racing can love her and admire Blame's crowning achievement as well.

24 Apr 2012 1:51 PM
Smoking Baby

 Hey...Trinninberg's pedigree has Damascus, Spectacular Bid, Herbager, Northern Dancer and Olden Times a hundred generations back.  OF COURSE he can get the grueling 10 furlong distance of the Derby.  This is only slightly more silly than some of the arguments I've seen about anything in Union Rag's pedigree suggesting he wants any part of the Derby distance. Seriously though, when looking at Trinninberg's pedigree I'm noticing what a nicely bred horse Teuflesberg is.  It's no wonder he's getting some talented runners.  Having said that I just don't think this colt fits in the Derby but Draynay's right, the owners do have a right to chase their dream same as anyone else.

24 Apr 2012 1:56 PM
El Kabong

Jason,

Nice work. I was watching film all day yesterday, the preps and past Derbies. I was enjoying the news of trinniberg as it will help get me what I really want. 6f's in 109 and change, even a low 1:10. That is the scenario that will give my closer his best shot at flying past the front end. Look also at 95,96 and especially  the 2000 Derby. Stalkers can recover  if first half is fast and the 3/4 is higher 1:10 but any lower and the front end wilts. Trinniberg, Valeski, Bode and Hansen with a close to them I'll have another are giving me the confidence to bet this collapse scenario.

24 Apr 2012 1:58 PM
It aint easy being good!

Carlos your statements are ridic right now. Do you honestly think that Bode and Hansen wont be close to the lead because they have HOF jockeys your out of your mind! I think this might be the first year where you will see distinct separation of different packs of horses. The 2005 derby is what I envision the race to unfold. Also I am glad Trinn is in the race! Look at 2005 race it looked like a stampede coming home that was awesome! Turning from home you had no idea who was going to win! Anyone hear how Alphas doing?

24 Apr 2012 2:05 PM
JorgeG

Great article, greetings from México from an habitual reader!

24 Apr 2012 2:07 PM
Johnny

Quality article Jason.

I remember those races well..

Last year I had Schackelford and he ran a 48 1/2 mile I thought I had it won. Nope that last 1/8 mile sometimes the anchor comes out.

While I agree the 19 other horse will let Trinni go and act like he is not their,I disagree that Hansen and Bodei will be allowed to get away.Two good of quality horse.

I see Bodei getting away from Hansen,Gem,Take Charge Indy and Ill Have Another pressing him from their and the the closers hitting them the last 1/8 mile.

Here comes Daddy Nose Best.

He will be the Wise Guy Horse hoping for 20-1 doubt it though.

Good Luck every One.

All subject to change..

24 Apr 2012 2:08 PM
Ian Tapp

Ranagulzion,

All Thoroughbreds have distant "stamina" influences, even in a sprinter's pedigree like Trinniberg's. Precious sire Teuflesberg did his best running at 7-8f and to this point is siring sprinters. The dam (by sprinter Goldminers Gold) was stakes-placed at 6f at Finger Lakes.

The distant appearance of Herbager, Secreto, and Tom Fool--who even combined would constitute only a tiny fraction of Trinniberg's genetics--aren't going to counteract the sprint influence of his immediate ancestors.

Plus, Trinniberg runs like and looks like a sprinter.

If he wanted to be ambitious, why not try the Met Mile? He'd get a lot of weight and his speed would be much more dangerous going a 1-turn mile.

24 Apr 2012 2:13 PM
LetItRideMike

Why is any horse and rider incapable of laying off a no chance speed horse considered worthy of being a KY DERBY CHAMPION?  Rather than creating a false result, I think this horses entry is likely to hinder horses who cant rate and reward those who have been better trained to GO only when its time. Thats a good thing, not a negative.

24 Apr 2012 2:17 PM
steve from st louis

Ranagulzion: Trinniberg has a dosage profile of 3-0-3-0-0 (6)with a Dosage Index of 3.0, indicating that he has three chef-de-race "relatives" (or "masters of the breed")in the "Brilliant" apitudinal group (showing aptitude in sprinting), no representatives in the "Intermediate" group or one showing  aptitude at a mile or so, only three figures in the "Classic" group and no figures in the "Stout" or "Professional" group (indicating aptitude at a distance). Very-one sided pedigree tilted toward speed.

Compare that with Alpha's dosage of 7-6-19-4-0 (36 representatives) and better Dosage Index of 1.67, lower, the better) with aptitude in four of the five classifications indicating a more well-balanced bloodline or Secretariat's dosage of 20-14-7-9-0 (50 representatives).

Trinniberg does have Stout chef-de-race Herbager in the pedigree but only once in five generations removed, a fleeting obscure influence compared to speed  chef-de-races Mr. Prospector (4X) and Raise a Native(5X).

And yes, Jason, Trinniberg will finish the race, if you give him enough time.

24 Apr 2012 2:18 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

Trust me Bro. if Trinniberg is left alone to cruise in 22 x 46 opening half mile chances are he'll not be caught by any of your fancied horses. Only Union Rags (Leparoux is expected to have him placed forwardly enough to strike at the right moment and there's none that can outrun him in the lane).  

24 Apr 2012 2:26 PM
Draynay

Stop it.  She didn't lose by a nose she lost by a head she never had a chance.  She got whipped get over it.

24 Apr 2012 2:32 PM
iceman92

when trinniberg quits after a quick mile, he will look like a cannonball coming at the horse trying to come up the rail behind him. smart jocks will ride the crown of the track for best results. in trinniberg's defense i saw him lose the hopeful last year at saratoga to currency swap on the worst track (slop) i've ever seen. trinniberg has progressed this year, currency swap did not. this horse has more wind than you think so beware if the track comes up sloppy. i just love this horse's future chances later in the year at saratoga and beyond.

24 Apr 2012 2:34 PM
furlongs

Draynay,

Trinniberg is faster then Uncle Mo... also she beat you when she ran second in the BC Classic just like she beat you when she won the BC Classic the year before... GET OVER IT!

24 Apr 2012 2:35 PM
Bob from Boston

Forewarned is forearmed--at least, in theory. But come the 138th Kentucky derby, the pressures of the moment including unbridled avarice and a thirst for fame can be the stuff that haunts Memory and thwarts even the workings of Destiny.

Ra1nmaker 24 Apr 2012 1:46 PM

Can somebody do me a solid and interpret this for me?  The late entry of this greyhound should make for an interesting race.  Santa's Little Helper ATB.

24 Apr 2012 2:37 PM
Bob from Boston

When is the last time the wise guy horse won the roses?  Whenever I bet it, I get treated like Mo does Curly.  Whoop whoop whoop whoop...

24 Apr 2012 2:40 PM
plodderman

If Alpha is within 5 at the head of the lane, I need to switch jobs. The pace will be 1;10 2/5 and Alpha will be 7 back at the 1/4 pole. Hansen will still be on the lead after getting it at the mile pole and fade from there with Alpha running over the field and the great DrayRags running the clunker he is.

24 Apr 2012 2:43 PM
Carlos in Cali

It aint easy,

Do you really think the jockeys for Hansen/Bode are going to go after the cheap speed?..

SWOOOOSH!!.. right over your head.

24 Apr 2012 2:44 PM
2:24

Good stuff Jason.  The 2005 and 2001 Derby my two least favorite derbies.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the benefactor in this race is going to be Take Charge Indy.  Everyone will overlook him because he was on the front in the Florida Derby but I don't think he needs the lead.  I think Borel will drop him back and he'll have a live one turning for home.  And I think betting against Borel on a live horse in the Derby is not a smart move.  Not saying he'll win but it wouldn't surprise me and he will be on my tickets.

Interested to see who will ride Alpha.  Think that horse has a big shot.

24 Apr 2012 2:44 PM
Carlos in Cali

Dominguez choosing Hansen tells me he thinks he has a better chance with a stalking trip right behind the cheap-speed rather than a traffic-weaving trip he'll get on a mid-pack type closing into the likely quick splits.

24 Apr 2012 2:56 PM
The Legend

Jason I have heard a couple of rumors. Perhaps you can confirm them? The first one is regarding Alpha and that he has not been traing due to the infection he suffered in the running of The Wood and that he may scratch out of the Derby. And that is why dominguez has chosen Hansen. The second rumor is regarding I'll Have Another and that he is on the Vet's List in California. I would apprecaite it if you could look into both of these. thank you

24 Apr 2012 3:00 PM
Will

An intriguing article, Jason. Question: Why did Dominguez choose to ride Hansen as reported today in the Bloodhorse rather than the closer Alpha, knowing the impact Trinniberg, a speed merchant miler-type who as you point out has never run more than 7 furlongs, will probably have on the pace of the race ???

24 Apr 2012 3:11 PM
UncleStosh

I don't like closers in this race at all. UR is going to be giving first run to 7 or 8 highly talented race horses. That is not a good scenario unless they are all done in by the pace which I doubt. I see similiarities to the year Smarty won when everyone had closers winning the race but in the end the two fastest horses(Smarty and LionHeart) were seperated from the pack dueling down the stretch. I could see Bodemeister and I'llHaveanother being those two horses with Union Rags and Dullahan closing belatedly for third. Also, the Giacomo race makes another point. The best closer(and horse) did not win. Afleet alex was a special horse who weaved in and out of traffic to get third. That could be Rags. As for Monarchos, i am not sure how he stops the watch at 1:59 and change and all you give him is that he was lucky because of the pace. Who was going to stop the clock faster, regardless of the pace?

24 Apr 2012 3:13 PM
Householder

Bode rated just fine behind American Act a 24-1 shot in the San Felipe.  He tracked him through splits of 22.95 and 46.98.  If you think Bode needs the lead or will be on the lead take another look at that race.  Baffert's instructions will be gallop out to Creative Cause and don't let him pass you in the stretch.  The rest of the speed will die.  

24 Apr 2012 3:18 PM
Johnny

Bob from Boston you are right but as recent hx has tought us their is a first for everything.

2:24:

I read a blog were TCI trainer said that his horse will run 12 second splits all day..

Thats is a tough horse to omit..

I say Alpha gets scratched.

Good luck every one

24 Apr 2012 3:18 PM
TJLuvsTizs

I am just ready to draw the post positions and look at the PP's to start making some bold predictions.  I am still all over Gem, but I am looking at Went the Day Well too.  UR will be there and I am sure CC will be fighting as well.  Bode could be hurt by Trinniberg, and I have been getting talked off of Hansen, and am ready to drop Alpha too.  

I don't trust the Euro, you could legitimately put a scratch through Prospective's performance in the BG but I don't like a 6th place prep, Sabercat and Done Talking are both out for me, Trinniberg's chances were better before Bode emerged but is now a toss, and the rest I still need to look into deeper.

24 Apr 2012 3:34 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion,

I'm starting to worry about you.

Trinniberg?... seriously,you can't be serious? Your picks this year belong on the 'something-to-be-desired' list. Then you also have this yr's 'wise guy' horse in DNB on your tix too..

You're better off sharing bank accounts with Judas.

24 Apr 2012 3:44 PM
Bill Two

If there were a crime called "equine misuse" this would be a prime example.  Trinniberg is an immensely talented sprinter who will probably be gutted by trying to get the Derby distance. I hope he comes out of the race as well as when he entered it, but I am skeptical about that.  Hopefully, he will at least be spared the indignity visited upon Bombay Duck when he and his jockey, Menotti Aristone, caught a beer can in the head {thrown by some idiot in the infield}. It's one thing for a horse like Spend A Buck- with a pedigree and foundation to speedpop the field under an agressive ride by Angel Cordero and quite another thing a horse that never has tried to negotiate two turns to win the Derby on the front end.  Parbhoo ought to be ashamed of himself.

24 Apr 2012 3:45 PM
Criminal Type

Eleven more days !

Iceman, Also be forwarned of Union Rag's(see 2011 Saratoga Special, UR's 2nd race) and El Padrino in the slop, they both love it.

LOL@BOBfromBoston & Santa's Little Helper, Very funny.

I love it that Trinniburg is in the Derby. Sets things up perfectly for horses racing midpack or further back. Im thinking Union Rag's, Went the Day Well and Dullahan. I Think it will be almost like the whole field inverting itself between the mile and finish line with a few exceptions.

Dominguez choosing Hansen over Alpha was a no brainer. Hansen is the two yr old champion who has had no training issues leading up to the Derby thus far, while Alpha has had changes of prep plans, possible illness issues and/or physical issues. Now who will they get to ride ?

The Legend. I too heard the lung infection thing about Alpha but nothing about I'll have Another. I too would like to know the facts on both of these issues.

24 Apr 2012 3:48 PM
Weekend

the only thing I would like to say at this time is this. If one more person says/writes blogs whatever, that Take Charge Indy is a front runner, I am going to lose my sh**. Does anyone read PP's? He took the lead in the FLA Derby b/c it was there for the taking, and the pace was SLOW. All of his races prior to that, he came from off of the pace. Throw him out if you want, that horse is a fighter and is going to blow people's tickets up if you throw him out... thats all.

Ok, one last thing. please watch Union Rags Work on youtube. WOW

24 Apr 2012 3:51 PM
Weekend

dominguez took the sure thing, period. Alpha is still questionable at best. He was my pick until this recent string of events...

24 Apr 2012 3:54 PM
Matthew W

Hot pace is hardest on the stalkers, like Snow Chief and Point Given, they ran their race but the pace was too hot--the Kentucky Derby pace is the biggest factor in the race itself--moreso than distance or field size combined--I hit the Derby exacta last year, I played a six horse box and ran one-two-three, but my win/place bet was Mucho Macho Man (3rd), this year I'm looking at an exacta box of Bodemiester, I'll Have Another, Daddy Nose Best, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen and Gemologist, that's 42 combinations! Creative Cause is most likely to finish in the money, my Derby Horse remains I'll Have Another, and I like him big, as big as any horse since Tabasco Cat! Tabasco Cat remains the biggest bet I have ever made, $300 w/p, the track came up a slop fest, 'Cat finished 5th or 6th, then he easily won Preakness and Belmont--interesting thing is Tabasco Cat won 2/3 of Triple Crown, and finished 2nd in a photo in the BC Classic--yet only finished 3rd in Eclipse voting for three year olds, behind Holy Bull and Concern. I'll invest a chunk of change, win/show, on I'll Have Another, and a much smaller win/show bet on Daddy Nose Best---I understand that I am backing a stalker, and, with the inclusion of Trinneberg, a stalker's trip just got harder--but that's the Kentucky Derby, where you get on a horse and you just lock in--I see others do it and I do it myself--there's nothing like it when you really start to like a horse--I'm about as stoked about I'll Have Another as I can be about a horse, I'm already thinking about whet I'm gonna get with all my winnings! That's not cocky--it's crazy!

24 Apr 2012 3:56 PM
Mike Monarchos

Zen was 25 lengths behind and only lost by a nose. She was unbelievable! Probably the best female race horse ever!

There's no way a sprinter will beat this Derby field! NO WAY!!!!  Baffert will know what to do with Bode, and so will Smith.

Gemologist and El Padrino are looking good too now. Is it true that Bejarano is riding El now?

24 Apr 2012 4:10 PM
The Legend

To Criminal Type check this out regarding I'll Have Another.

Park

*I'll Have Another TB 04/20/12 Vet. Treatment (10 days) - ESWT O'Neill, Doug F. Santa Anita Park

Where are all the experts? Why aren't they getting this information for us? Same thing with Alpha. Who cares about Trinniberg? Let's get some inforamtion on these two key players in the Derby!

24 Apr 2012 4:13 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Do you actually think the jockeys are that dumb.Unless the colt is hyper the day of the race they will let Trinni run as fast as he wants  to.He does NOT have the conditioning to even be on the lead after a mile.This could make it easier for the on the pace types to rate,unless the colt is headstrong.IMO this improves the chances of the ones who can rate right behind the sprinters fractions and pounce and open up after the turn the closers will be too far behind to get anything but minor awards.This is 10 furlongs with 20 horses the spacing from front to back will be 15 lengths or more.This race will not be run like the Rebel where a closer like Optimizer only had to run hard a quarter of a mile or less.

24 Apr 2012 4:16 PM
steve from st louis

Bill Two: Bombay Duck didn't.

24 Apr 2012 4:17 PM
Ranagulzion

Trinniberg is the pace-police in this year's Derby. Nobody can steal the race on the lead without being arrested. Furthermore those wannabe-runaway types that Carlos likes will eiter be 'southern fried' or 'slow cooked' until the fastest closer of them all comes running once Julien Leparoux cocks the stick on the far turn.

Trinniberg has a petty good shot at the exacta spot. My serious estimation of this fleetfooted colt is that he can hit the board if left alone (exacta to be exact). Anyone that provokes his speed before the field has gone six panels can kiss derby glory goodbye for sure. What a race!!!

24 Apr 2012 4:26 PM
Criminal Type

Billy's, I watched the last Union Rag's work when it was first posted on Facebook. Made it look easy didn't he? He is really something, a stunningly gorgeous monster of a horse.

24 Apr 2012 4:27 PM
The Legend

For those who will ask what ESWT is?

ESWT is an FDA approved form of treatment. It is a non-surgical approach to pain relief that is used regularly to cure common problems like plantar fasciitis and Achilles tendonitis. The therapy works by targeting shock waves directly to the area that is experiencing pain. This non-invasive procedure typically lasts less than 30 minutes.

Do you still like I'll Have Another? Ouch!!!!!

24 Apr 2012 4:30 PM
It aint easy being good!

Bob from Boston I was thinking the same thing but the wise guys hit the board last year. The wise guy horse was Nehro and he finished second so take it with a grain of salt. Carlos in Cali please dont burn your money with the front runners they never do well in a steroid free era. No horse on the front end ever hits the derby your boy Bode will be doing the moonwalk at the eight pole like Shackelford did last year!

24 Apr 2012 4:41 PM
Jason Shandler

The Legend: I am actually working on a story on this topic. Look for it tomorrow.

24 Apr 2012 4:43 PM
furlongs

The Legend,

Where did you find that out? I would love to know so it can be confirmed... Thanks

24 Apr 2012 4:46 PM
Matthew W

Oops, forgot Dulahan! No way will I play an eight horse exacta box, there's just "too many" nice horses this year! Also horses like Mark Valeski and El Padrino, who are completely flying under the radar....

24 Apr 2012 4:51 PM
Footlick

ESWT is Extracorporeal Shockwave Therapy.  It promotes healing and has been used for treatment of arthritic conditions.    

24 Apr 2012 4:54 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Matthew W I like that ex box and hopefully the odds will cooperate,with the favorite going in the gate at 9-2 or 5-1.IMO the Odds are the most important number before the race starts,and a good bettor will structure his or her bets that have multiple pace scenarios factored into their bets because after all, who knows which speed horse will stumble slightly out of the gate or which colt will find himself alone tracking one pace setter and one or two pressers similar too Big Brown,and Barbaros trip.Btw those two were so much better than the rest that they could have won with different positions at the half mile and mile.IMO Point Given had a bad day and Monarchos had the perfect trip and he was GOOD.Their was a large bet made on him before the Florida Derby.Nobody Nobody KNOWS where they will be after a half mile or a mile so make a bet that incorprates as many race scenarios as possible and you have a great chance to cash.I think Boxes are the way for exactas,tris and supers you gotta make a stand because their are 20 running,that is if you wanna win more than you bet.

24 Apr 2012 5:04 PM
robinm

Draynay & Smoking Baby; yes, Trinninberg has the $ and his owner does have the right to run him in the Derby, but, are they doing the right thing for their horse?

Carlos; I think Bode might rate, but do you think Hansen's jock will have any say in the matter?

Finally, to the Zenyatta bashers, I confess I was never a Z fanatic, but enough!  There were times the mare barely won over middling competition, but she only lost once and that was barely....she was never "whipped".

24 Apr 2012 5:13 PM
steve from st louis

Most of those of us who follow thoroughbreds for some extra pocket change would generally agree Mike Smith is in the Racing Hall of Fame because, like Pat Day, he always saves as much horse as he can for the last furlong of any race. If that's the case in  next week's Derby, they're all running for second money.

Bob Baffert has a glittering gem in Bodemeister, named for his seven-year-old son, Bode.

Inbred 4X4 to Northern Dancer, 5X5 to both Nearctic and Natalma and 4X5 to Secretariat, Bodemeister has a dosage of 9-9-12-0-2, indicating he has both speed and stamina in his illustrious family. Owner Ahmed Zayat ran second last year with Nehro and also second in 2009 with another Baffert-trained son of Empire Maker, Pioneerofthe Nile. Zayat hopes the third time is the charm. I'm betting on it.

The only thing that can beat this flame is the pill-pull next Wednesday. And rest assured Mike Smith won't even cut it close. I don't think Baffert's heart could take that.

24 Apr 2012 5:34 PM
Ra1nmaker

I want to see Bodemeister running 5th, 7th, maybe as far back as tenth. Behind slower horses and on the cusp of traffic trouble. Why?

Because a poor trip can't always deny a champion. And whereas the risk of a pace melt-down here, is real, so I believe, & such a meltdown would be the end of Racing's best, and arguably only true chance at a triple crown champion ...after 35 years. Inasmuch as Bodemeister, and Bodemeister alone, figures to be fast enough AT CLASSIC DISTANCES (and in Grade One company), to wear the crown.

24 Apr 2012 5:44 PM
El Kabong

Billy E,

Take Charge Indy will rate in Derby. Calvin will ride him like he did Super Saver. Alot of people thought he was a need the lead type too. Wrong. Like this guy because he is on my list of 5 who have not given us their best. Calvin smartly took the lead and milked it in Florida, probably because of how the track had been running. He had to win and that was the sweet spot if nobody hooked up. It was a great plan, executed off the cuff by a smart Jock. I like his chances. Let us know how he looks in the A.M. Gemologist, Dullahan, Rags, and one other make up that list of 5 who could have their coming out party when it counts.

24 Apr 2012 5:45 PM
Rusty Weisner

The Legend,

Thanks.  If I may ask, where'd you get that dope (so to speak)?

24 Apr 2012 5:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

After the Songandaprayer/Monarchos Derby a lot of people (with losing tickets) complained about the “souped up” track.  That was my first Derby, so I don’t know about what the tendency of times was a decade ago.  CD sure wasn’t souped up last year, though.

I think the entry of Trinniberg makes the betting more appealing – you call already see two camps, folks who want to play closers/stalkers vs. those who want to play early speed and stalkers.  I’m in the latter camp, as there have been more Derbies in my experience where there some pretender pegged to take the lead did just that for three quarters and then finished up the track (Funny Cide, Barbaro, Big Brown Derbies).  I am trying to visualize a Derby that looks like one of these, or like the Smarty Jones Derby, with a lionhearted horse like Hansen playing Lion Heart and probably Creative Cause the winner.  I really wanted a single closer to throw underneath and thought I had it in Alpha, but not now.

The condition of the track, though, could change all that and I hope to keep my eyes open.  The first five races on the Derby day card, maiden and allowance races, are all on the dirt.  I already like betting those races, as you sometimes get funny odds early on the big day, but I really consider looking at these races (actually betting them will stimulate an even more lively interest) imperative after last year.

24 Apr 2012 5:48 PM
tjconway

I can't recall the last time there was some kind of interference in the derby. I hate to say this. but were due for some bumping, grinding,path jumping and blatant interference! When this happens, the front runners have an advantage.......consider this in your overall handicapping.

24 Apr 2012 5:48 PM
Rusty Weisner

Billy’s Empire,

Actually, TCI tracked the leader in the allowance race with El Padrino, but I get your point.  After the Florida Derby I thought, hey, he might try that again in the Derby, but with Trinniberg and Bodemeister he’s not going to.  Maybe his trip on the rail in the BCJ prefigures what he’ll get from Borel in the Derby.

The only downside is that he will be an underlay with Borel on board and having won the Florida Derby as the beneficiary of the pace and track.  But in exotics and multi-race bets that shouldn’t concern me and he’s my “second tier”.  And why penalize a horse for winning, anyway?

(tepid win pick:  CC; 1st tier:  CC, UR, IHA (don't know about that any more!), Gem; 2nd tier: Bode, TCI, Hansen; 3rd tier:  Dullahan, WtheDW, DNB, DLL, Alpha, DoneT, Sabercat).

24 Apr 2012 5:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

I like that Bodemeister will be taking a lot of money.  I like him and bet him on top in the Arkansas Derby, and he may be the best horse, but not necessarily on May 5.

24 Apr 2012 5:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

I really have Derby fever.  One of the symptoms is logorrhea.

24 Apr 2012 5:50 PM
redandblacksilks

Horses have an affinity for a particular running style.  Some "need" the lead and won't run well if they aren't on the lead early in a race.  Some will rate on command.  Others will rate, but only to a certain degree, meaning they refuse to be too far off the lead and will lay within a few lengths of the lead regardless of the jock's desires.  There are at least a half dozen horses entering the Derby who fit into this last category.  The result of Trinniberg going is that the runners in this category are going to run faster splits than normal and will have less left for the stretch drive.  Both Bodemeister and Hansen fall into this category and to argue that the faster pace won't compromise their chances is naive at best.  Even without Trinniberg the pace would be hot.  Freakish things do happen, but the Derby appears to be setting up for a closer from mid-pack or farther back.  As for Trinniberg's connections, I feel they are putting aside the well-being of the horse in favor of their egos.  "I had a horse in the Derby."  "Really, where did he finish?" "Uh, well, uh 19th."  "19th, what happened?"  "The horse's ability wasn't as big as my head." Enough said.

24 Apr 2012 5:56 PM
Secretariat

The bottom line is:

Whoever reaches the 1/8 pole first, will win this Derby.

The horse that reaches the 1/8 pole first will "run them off their feet".

BTW: The most critical fraction in the Kentucky Derby is the 1/2 mile fraction.

24 Apr 2012 6:19 PM
seacrets

this article is well written after some serious analysis. This is precisely why all my money is going on Dullahan....

24 Apr 2012 6:21 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

You replied to my post "You're better off sharing bank accounts with Judas" simply because I have been touting Trinniberg and Daddy Nose Best as part of my "Derby quintet"?

What do you mean Pal? Judas betrayed Messiah for 30 pieces of silver then hanged himself. How do you connect my picks with such a hpoeless betrayal?

This is setting up to be one the most outstanding Derby fields that I can remember and with Trinniberg in the race it just got better. Its just what the doctor ordered to prevent a "judas" front runner from stealing the race with a false pace.

I favour a lot of my selection not only by the use of standard handicapping methods but also by intuitive foresight. I spotted Union Rags as the Derby horse immediately after the Saratoga special last year and I spotted Trinniberg before the running of the Swale, after which I thought that this was a quality speed horse with some stamina influence hidden in his pedigree that could cause him to carry that speed for a significant showing in the Derby. And here he is adding some fiery "hot pepper sauce" to the Yum Brands sponsored Run for the Roses.

I can't see any betrayal in that. I challenge you to beat my top five with yours. Mine are: Union Rags, Gemologist, Daddy Nose Best, Trinniberg and El Padrino. I say emphatically that the winner will be one of those and the others will vindicate my selection. Beat that if you can Buddy and best of luck. Lets continue to enjoy the build up.

24 Apr 2012 6:30 PM
Mike from Michigan

I really want TCI to win the derby, that is my heart speaking.  But after watching Dullahan in the Bluegrass and re-examining his previous races, especially the 2011 BC, I think that Dullahan will come flying in the stretch with that HUGE stride of his and win the derby.  It's really tough when you really want a certain horse to win, but logic tells you differently.  My money goes with Dullahan, but my heart stays with TCI.  If either one of these horses win, I will be happy and sad.

24 Apr 2012 6:37 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Jason I know you write this story because there will be ones that take a side one way or the other,much like the congress of 2011 who vote along party lines creating gridlock for the country.Seriously People (to borrwow phrasing from one of the better liked posters)I could care less about Trinni as he wont be in ANY of my bets.The first thing I will do is figure out who I have in my futures bets(and this year almost every single one is running.The colts I have left out of the exactas with the ones I already have will be bet.Then the odds will tell me how to structure my remaining exotic bets using the colts I am picking. The Trinniberg Factor means squat to me.

24 Apr 2012 6:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

BTW if Trinni happens to come in 1st or 2nd by the will of Apollo,hes in all others in pools 1,2 amd 3of Derby Futures.ANY poster that wants to bet and take TRinni to win I will take one horse and we can bet $1000 if you want, and no one wins if either of our picks does not win.

24 Apr 2012 6:48 PM
Stones

Just a nod to Bob from Boston for the Simpson's reference (cracked me up).

Go Bruins!

24 Apr 2012 7:04 PM
Matthew W

I'm glad I'll Have Another has a proactive trainer who will utilize therapuedic methods of pain control, he shows an uncanny ability to develop a horse who can/will win at 1 1/4, in grade 1 company! Whatever he has done with "Nuther" has resulted in two nice wins, and this guy not only has learned to relax, he has the breeding, his female side is stuffed to the gills with stamina influence!

24 Apr 2012 7:08 PM
Tiz Herself

2001 and 2005 also had a common thing as it was ultimately a gray horse that would finish 1st. Monarchos of course in 2001 and Giacomo in 2005. Maybe the same this year? Either way I love grays anyways so seeing Hansen or Creative Cause get roses would not be disappointing.

I hope to see Gem settle and Union Rags backed off enough that he doesn't get into trouble. I'll Have Another, Daddy Long Legs should be okay, remains to be seen. Between Bodemeister and Trinniberg (can envision these two eyeballing each other in the start of the race), Hansen likely there too unless he lets Dominguez rate him.

Think Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy (he is not just a pace horse, he has been in the pack too in his career) Daddy Nose Best, and anyone else who might be further back will be okay, too. Let's not forget Alpha. Done Talking could inhale the field if the pace is hot enough.

Definitely expect more curve balls to be thrown within the next week.

24 Apr 2012 7:28 PM
Tiz Herself

The whole thing with I'll Have Another - would that be related to any issues he may have had as a juvenile?

It would not be uncommon for something like that to flair up again, I just hope if he is not 100% that his connections do right by him. Wouldn't want to see another breakdown in the Derby.

24 Apr 2012 7:38 PM
Carlos in Cali

robinm,

Yes.If he can get Hansen to track the cheap-speed like he did in the Gotham.

24 Apr 2012 7:41 PM
jamesb

My wife absolutely loved Spanish Chestnut and we were both horrified at the early splits.  He was a good horse who was never the same again.

Trinniberg has absolutely no business being in this race.  The riders of Hansen and Bodemeister would do well to not let history repeat itself (even though it always does) and completely ignore him even if he is 15 lengths in front early.

Derby Fever?  The owner's temp must be 103.

Unfortunately for Jason, Daddy Nose Best still won't finish better than 10th.

24 Apr 2012 7:43 PM
Ted from LA

Bob from Boston,

Santa's Little Helper.  Good stuff.  Mike from Michigan, I see an exacta box that could make you really happy... and it would not shock me.  If you really think about it, if Snooki can get pregnant, anything can happen.  Speaking of which, this board has become a bachelor party.  Where are all the women?  I'm Done Talking for now.

24 Apr 2012 8:35 PM
Bob from Boston

Thank Ted from LA.  Your approval means a lot to me.  I'm talking about the man in the mirror.  I see more of a Strike the Gold ending to this Derby.  Someone flying from out of the clouds near the first row of the stands.

24 Apr 2012 8:43 PM
The Legend

For those that asked where I got that information on I'll Have Another I also do alot of reading at thorograph.com and click on Ask The Experts. Excellent ready and outstanding handicappers.

24 Apr 2012 9:17 PM
Racingfan

While I wouldn't bet Trinniberg and I have serious doubts he will win - mostly because he has not been two turns - just because a horse is a fast sprinter does not mean he cannot win a distance race.  Native Dancer won the Belmont Stakes but also equaled the 6 1/2 furlong world record as a two year old!   Of course there was only ONE Native Dancer...but I'm just saying...

24 Apr 2012 9:20 PM
Mary

Union Rags, Take Charge Indy, and Mark Valeski, in that order.  I may change my mind on Mark, but I'll probably go with this trio.  Borel and Leparoux are the best at Churchill Downs, and Rosie loves Mark Valeski and she is the leading rider at the Fair Grounds, and the Churchill track is similar to the New Orleans Fair Grounds.

24 Apr 2012 9:55 PM
Mary

Trinniberg will be the speed and I'm happy that he is in the race, Union Rags will profit from the fast pace.

24 Apr 2012 9:57 PM
Mary

To tell the truth Bodemeister has the best pedigree, but Union Rags is right up there with him as far as going the distance.  If all of you would placate me for a moment and look at the tail side of Union Rags pedigree, you will find the stamina.  

24 Apr 2012 10:03 PM
Paula Higgins

Bob/Ted, Ted/Bob I think we are having a "Sybil" issue here. You are responding to your own posts. I am getting worried. I agree with those that think Trinniberg should not be running in this race. The chances he will win are pretty low, so why enter him and risk burning him out? I am a little verklempt about I'll have Another. What is going on? I wish we could have one Derby where they don't start dropping like flies. Hopefully, this is nothing. I am still with Geologist, Creative Cause and IHA. But my heart is with Michael Matz and Union Rags. Would love to see it happen, even though I don't think it will. As for ESWL, we use that on people to dissolve kidney stones in the hospital. Interesting how they use it on horses.

24 Apr 2012 10:15 PM
Footlick

Tiz Herself, I can't imagine it is a good sign.  Tells me the horse has physical issues and is in pain.  The longer between races, the better ouchy horses tend to run.  The shorter the spacing, the worse they tend to run.  He may be an exception, but I'll let him beat me.  The same with Alpha, if he even makes the race.

24 Apr 2012 10:19 PM
Coldfacts

I am amazed at the overwhelming consensus that Trinniberg will lead the Derby. His connections changed their minds as a result of the exit of Secret Circle. I do not understand the following quote:  “With (Secret Circle) out of the race, I know there isn’t another horse in the race with the kind of speed my horse has.” What do the cold facts reflect?

Sham Glll; Leader - Longview Drive

Southwest Glll; Leader - Scatman

Rebel Gll; Leader - Scatman

AK Derby Gl;  Leader - Bodemeister

Secret Circle did not lead any of his 3YO starts. Why was his speed of such concern to the connections of Trinniberg? Is Secret Circle faster than Bodemeister? He was a close loser of the Sham run in 1:34.56. The Bodsters won his maiden race at the same distance in 1:34.45 pulling a bus. If there was any doubt as who was faster, Secret Circle was left in The Bodsters wake. If the connections of Trinniberg were worried about Secret Circle they were worried about the wrong horse. In a 20 horse field there is going to be a mad rush for positions heading into the first turn. The likes of Hansen, Union Rags, TCI,  Bodemeister, Genologist and Prospective will be all hustling for positions. Trinniberg will therefore be put under enormous pressure and is unlikely to lead but is likely to get hurt. The aforementioned colts are all better than SS and will have no problem brushing Trinniberg aside. He will have no impact on the outcome of the race.  

24 Apr 2012 10:21 PM
Baylee2012

My concern with Trinniberg is twofold. 1 - that he doesn't breakdown in the race.  He has never gone up against 19 other horses, never been 2 turns, never been more than 7 furlongs and appears to dislike Churchill Downs surface. To me, that spells disaster.  2 - that even if he comes out of this race physically sound, if he comes out of the race with his spirit or mental health in tact. He may leave his heart & soul on that track & never race the same again, it has happened to other horses in the past.

This comes down to one thing & one thing only. The greed of the connections. Instead of being happy to have one of the top sprinters in the country, they MUST enter the prestigious Kentucky Derby with a horse that is ill suited to it. Owners like that make me sick.

24 Apr 2012 10:23 PM
RJPPDP

I can't guarantee that Trinniberg will be the fastest at the beginning of derby but I can guarantee he will be the slowest at the end of the derby. I can't believe that a sprinter can finish a 1 1/4 without ever going a mile. I relate this to a 200 sprinter entering a mile race. He might have a father or grandfather who were milers but the sprinter cannot run with them the whole race. He is not prepared. He has no foundation. 7 furlongs is not foundation. I can deal with synthetic and turf who horses who have graded earnings in route races. Sprint races are a totally different. I understand Parboo has the right to enter the derby but come on! Trinniberg will be one of those bad singers in American Idol.

How is he going to dictate the race? It all depends how the other horses race against him. If Hansen, Gemologist, Bodemeister, Daddy Long Legs and Take Charge Indy will need to decide to stay close or really lay off Trinniberg and run a separate derby race. I hope we have a great derby because eight horses are coming back from the BC Juvenile and Bodemeister could be a monster. We still have a few days until post positions are announced. Maybe Parboo can change his mind again.

24 Apr 2012 10:24 PM
Coldfacts

Mr. Shandler,

I see you have dedicated a blog to the colt you have determined will be the leader of the 2012 Derby. Are you going to do a balancing act and do one for the colt you expect to be the trailer? You had a lot of material to work with from the 2001 & 2005 Derbies. If you chose to do a blog on the trailer, you have an equal amount material from the 2007 and 2009 Derbies. (Street Sense/Mine That Bird) Trinniberg is likely to finish last and certainly cannot be more worthy of a blog. Done Talking!

24 Apr 2012 10:33 PM
Coldfacts

Matthew W,

“Remember "every race has a winner", doesn't mean a winner won the race”

OK Matthew, I think I understand what you are trying to indicate with the above. However, I find the statement contradictory.

Done talking won two races before the IL Derby. Am I correct to conclude that by virtue of this, a winner won the IL Derby as opposed to the race being won by a non winner i.e., a maiden?  If the winner of a particular race is not classified as a winner, it should be able to enter a race for non winners i.e., a maiden race.

If you are implying that by winning the slowly run IL Derby does not give Done Talking the credentials to win the KD, I fully agree. What caused the 2012 Derby to be the slowest in the history of the race? No one has taken the time to determine the reason. Several horses that were entered  in the Il Derby had run much faster in the past. Currency Swap was G1 winner at Saratoga. Our Entourage ran 1:40 plus for 8 1/2F on turf. Done Talking finished 1L 4th in 9F  Remsen run in 1:52 plus. The time of the IL Derby must be dismissed as the track appeared deep and very loose. Done talking can run much faster and should not be judged by the IL Derby time.

“Your analysis betrays you”

How can I be betrayed by an analysis before the race is run?

“You are hoping his ability to get the tenth furlong will trump a large batch of horses that look much better”

A portion of the above statement is correct. I am hoping his ability to get the tenth furlong will trump a number of colts that I consider suspect at the distance. I do not evaluate horse on looks. I evaluate their  pedigrees and performances. Which was the best looking colt in the 2009 Derby? It was certainly not the midget Mine That Bird.

Done Talking will be on my wagers. He does not have to win just hit the board. My posts are in defense of the colt potential. Most are undermining this well bred colt that can effectively get 10F. Two race as a 3YO is  not enough to dismiss him.

24 Apr 2012 10:43 PM
Coldfacts

Mr. Shandler,

In 2011 you featured Shackleford after a 9F allowance victory in a post titled “Shackleford Passes Test at Gulfstream”. By the time the FL Derby came around you had jumped ship. He finished second at 68-1 in the FL Derby and went on to win the Preakness. You have feature a number of horses in 2012. There is one in particular that will win the 2012 Derby but I fear you have already jumped ship. I am aware that you make your Derby pick after the post positioned are drawn. However, you will not be focused on this colt as he is not in the top 10. I recently revisited your post and I found information that convinced me that this colt is a very dangerous contender. This is one of the reasons why I am now in a dilemma as I have a future wager on Alpha.

Revisit the bottom 10 and put things into prospective and you will find the 2012 Derby winner.  

24 Apr 2012 11:22 PM
El Kabong

MIke From Michigan, Redandblacksilks, Seacrets,

Your clarity in this hour of opaque vision is comforting. Hold fast to the Dullahan train it rides with fury and lays waste to all in its path. Stay strong and listen not to the naysayers who cling to notions of dirt slowing down the most suitable thoroughbred for the distance. The shorter lines at the cashing window await your clairvoyance if you hold true. Stay strong and listen for the fiddles of Donegal calling  home the son of Even the score. :0 :) :0 :)

24 Apr 2012 11:23 PM
papillon

the difference between point given and belamy road, and hansen (and possibly bode--it's harder to tell with him because he hasn't raced as much), is that both point given and belamy road were early pressers, not pure front runners--hansen is a pure front runner, in the same way that z was a pure closer.

pure front runners and pure closers are much less common in any race then pressers are--almost all the horses in any given race are pressers, and some races have nothing but pressers in them.

depending on their early speed, pressers  either are early, front of the field runners, intermediate, mid-pack runners, or late, back of the field runners. the difference between them is only based on how much early speed they have. creative cause is an early presser, union rags is an intermediate presser, rousing sermon is a late presser. but they are all pressers

but the difference between pur front runners or pure closers, and all types of pressers, is psychological--pressers are more herd conscious horses--they run in the pack because that is where horses in the wild congregate when they are stressed, and thus their races and their pace is deeply influenced by the pace of those around them, because they don't want to leave the comfort of the heard--these are the horses that run at risk of rabbits; but true front runners and true closers run their own racers and are not influenced by pace of the other horses in the race (outside of traffic concerns of course)--it doesn't mean they always win, but it does mean that they always run their own race.

psychologically they are the wayward members of the herd, that often figure as the misfit heroes of disney's animated animal movies. in nature, they are the horses that often take over herds and become the heard stallions (who trail behind the herd to protect it) and lead mares (who range in front of the herd and are the real heard bosses, just as in elephant societies).

regardless of anything or anyone else in the race, hansen will run a 23 second first quarter, a 46 second second quarter, and 1:11 third quarter, unless tragedy happens--this will be true whether trinniberg runs 22, 45, 1:09 or scratches from the race altogether. the longer trinni stays in front of him, the more fire hansen will have to keep running fast after 3/4 of a mile--it is exactly what happens every time maker has one of his older stakes winning horses jump in front of hansen as hansen is finishing his works--he speeds up. and it is exactly what happened after hansen regrouped after the wire in both the holy bull and the blue grass--he kicked again and galloped out like a freight train both times.

i don't now as much about bode, to be able to say if this is true of him as well.  i doubt it because bode works easily with other horses, and hansen doesn't, he's too competitive.

before z's final race, i said that i didn't know if she would win but that i did know beyond a shadow of doubt that she could win. i say the same exact thing of hansen here--i don't know if he will win, but i know beyond a a shadow of doubt that he can win. and it won't be the distance or the other speed that prevents him from doing so. i'll also predict that if he doesn't win, he's lose will speak as much for his quality as z's loss to blame did of hers.

hasen has one thing in common with shack--shack never looses to the other speed--they both bury the other speed. one other thing in hansen's favor--he's run in 14 horse fields 3 times.  most of the other horse have run in a big filed only once, if at at all.

25 Apr 2012 12:04 AM
It aint easy being good!

Coldfacts one thing you forget is that the clock doesnt lie he is seriously 6 seconds slower than creative cause and Dullhan do you really think he will out kick well established closers with a good foundation. Done talking ceiling is 5th please dont bet him I bet you to get off this obsession and start talking about horses that are live such as daddy nose best. He has been at churchill for weeks now and has been training very well. I think its a big advantage to have multiple works over the track!

25 Apr 2012 12:04 AM
Matthew W

Coldfacts I only meant that sometimes a race is won by default, that there have been an abundance of quality preps and it looks like it may be a case of the Ill Derby was a lesser group, as it didn't look as quality laden as, say the Florida/Santa Anita Derbies, and that stamina might not be enough when the field's this deep. My guy has pain issues--athletes tend to but I'm stayin with my guy and can see why you're standin pat with your guy, as well--jusr throwin it around, a bit!

25 Apr 2012 12:10 AM
KY VET

Has anyone else seen the milk carton with the picture of Coldcuts' mind on the back?

25 Apr 2012 12:56 AM
Geronimo2123

"All Thoroughbreds have distant "stamina" influences, even in a sprinter's pedigree like Trinniberg's. Precious sire Teuflesberg did his best running at 7-8f and to this point is siring sprinters. The dam (by sprinter Goldminers Gold) was stakes-placed at 6f at Finger Lakes."

Here is what happened to Trinniberg's sire Teuflesberg when he and Cowtown Cat and Stormello tried to match strides with a very good speed horse named Hard Spun who could run all day and hit 4f in 46 flat and still almost wired the Derby field!

Can you say run off your feet to the back of the pack? In retrospect, shaking off so many horses left SS with enough room to sneak through on that rail and then take HS by surprise and then clipping his heels (making HS bobble):

www.youtube.com/watch

25 Apr 2012 5:03 AM
Geronimo2123

"Bode rated just fine behind American Act a 24-1 shot in the San Felipe.  He tracked him through splits of 22.95 and 46.98.  If you think Bode needs the lead or will be on the lead take another look at that race"

Bode LOST that race! He was passed by the same horse who actually lost ground in the final furlong to Hansen in the BC Juvenile. An E-2 of 114 by Hansen at CD and yet CC could not make up any ground?

But he sure did it with Bode.

No one is saying Bode can not rate. It just looks like he can not rate and WIN.

25 Apr 2012 5:09 AM
Weekend

Trinniberg is the cheap speed. I said it 2 weeks ago, and I will say it again. This horse should not be in the Derby, the Preakness, or any race past 9 furlongs. You can tell by the way he runs and his action he is not a horse that is going to like a route of ground. Save this horse for the King Bishop, the Met Mile.

I am getting a better idea of who the last place horse will be if another horse drops out since Isnt He clever is now out of the running

25 Apr 2012 8:40 AM
Smoking Baby

robinm.  Good point.  To answer your question, NO, I do not think the gentleman who owns Trinniberg is doing right by his horse.  The colt doesn't have a prayer.  Bummer.

25 Apr 2012 9:10 AM
Johnny

Colfacts just curious who was your pick last year??

25 Apr 2012 9:23 AM
Pedigree Ann

Billy, re Take Charge Indy

Look at his PPs. Has he ever WON when he has been taken off the pace? His only wins have come when he was on the lead or lapped on the leader.

Whoever mentioned it - About an hour and a half before the 2004 Derby, a monsoon hit Churchill Downs. The track was packed down hard and some of it washed out. The track crew had to scramble to get it in race-able condition. The surface was a super-highway, a front-runner's dream. Smarty and Lion were the survivors of the first flight.

25 Apr 2012 10:28 AM
JerseyBoy

There have been several comments about Trinniberg running 10 furlongs after racing at 7 furlongs. Some seem to feel that this will be a problem. Some even fear for the safety of the horse.

Well on the same day the Kentucky Derby will be run, the English 2000 guineas will be run at a mile. Many of those horses will run next in the Epsom Derby at 12 furlongs. One of them is the favorite Camelot. Sea The Stars did the same thing. In fact, this is common in England. Some of the horses even win.

If horses can go from 8 to 12 furlongs successfully, there is no reason why they cannot go from 7 to 10 furlongs successfully. In fact, it is less of an increase in distance.

The issue is not the lack of experience at a longer distance, but the stamina and running style of the horse. Trinniberg is bred to sprint, has been trained to sprint and is a front-running type. If the tempo of the race is slow enough a sprinter can win at 10 furlongs. But a slow tempo is not likely at Churchill.

25 Apr 2012 11:10 AM
furlongs

All I know is anyone who pays attention to jockey's knows that Mike Smith is going to the lead unless one of two things happens 1) he has been totally drugged to the lead by the horse. 2) he gets it because no one wants it. This also goes for Calvin Borel both these jocks horses in the Ky Derby have shown speed in that past, don't be surprised if one of these horses gets a perfect stalking trip behind the Trinniberg and Hansen who I truly think after seeing the Blue Grass has to and wants to show front end speed and wins the Ky Derby. I am not a big fan of Bodemeister to win the roses but I respect the numbers he has shown and the race vs CC shows he has class about him no matter what horses he beat at Oaklawn. Just think of it this way if Bodemeister had his first race a month earlier in Dec 2011 and showed the numbers he has shown he would be 8-5 2-1 in this field... Because of 30 days difference and some stupid old mans rule of what it takes to win the Derby (which all the others have come crashing down over the last several years btw) you will get 5-1 or so on him. I don't seeing me being one of those people but I couldn't blame anyone for betting this horse at that price, after all its just 30 days... nothing more.

25 Apr 2012 11:41 AM
furlongs

One last thing on Bodemeister and I refuse to talk about this horse again... Draynay and others knock him cause he ran a 25 split in the middle of his race and then btw finished in 11 and change final furlong and won by 9... do you really think if he did have to run faster like a 24 split in the middle of his last race he still would not have won the race? I mean this is why Mike Smith is in the HOF he didn't let the horse run any faster then he had to in order to win. In fact I am willing to bet if he knew the horse better he wouldn't came home as fast as he did in Ark. He ran fast enough and it easy enough to win the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown ran the same way and beat nothing in the Florida Derby and Draynay was all over him. By the way Big Brown came home in 13 in his race before then Ky Derby and btw that was AFTER he just ran a quarter in 25!!!

25 Apr 2012 11:50 AM
iceman92

criminal type-i like your union rags selection as well as went the day well(good value). i will be watching w/o of i"ll have another to see if he beats 2/3's of w/o field at the distance (my criteria) to insure he came out of his therapy ok. hope i get the greedy part of my $20 exacta box, good luck!

25 Apr 2012 11:55 AM
Draynay

Furlongs get a clue.  Bode has NEVER won if not on the lead.  Trinni will be on the lead not Bode.  The only way Bode hits the board is if he jumps the fence and runs into it.

25 Apr 2012 12:21 PM
Draynay

By the way please do not compare Bode to Big Brown.  Bode already has more losses than Big Brown had in his entire career.  DA.

25 Apr 2012 12:22 PM
KY VET

papillion's last post, soon to be released in 3D!!!!

25 Apr 2012 1:14 PM
Draynay

Wise Dan ... wow !  Best synthetic horse I have ever seen.

25 Apr 2012 1:21 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Jersey Boy European Turf racing is a lot different than dirt racing.In most of those races they only run hard a small part of the race.I have a question the horses that are going from 7f to 12 are they 3yos.The second question is have they ever run races over 10 furlongs previously.I dont believe any horse that hasnt run anything more than 7 furlongs on the dirt in the US can win a 10 furlong race,but if you believe he can my bet is up for the taking.

25 Apr 2012 1:32 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Furlongs its actually 3 days his first race was on January 3.BTW Big Brown first race was on December 23,so he kept Apollos mouth shut by eight days.

25 Apr 2012 1:35 PM
Will

Hopefully, if Trinniberg doesn't draw a favorable post, Parbhoo will scratch this promising miler who has yet to go around two turns and save his colt to compete instead with the Jackson Bends, the Caleb Posses, and the Caricatados where he, as Jason thinks, really belongs and where many racing fans are looking forward to see him compete. If he does draw favorably to facilitate a rush to the lead, it is understandable how Parbhoo could be caught up in the temptation - absent any real speed with the loss of Secret Circle - to hope he can wire the field. After all, he'll be free of the pitfalls that can befall a colt in a 20 horse field, and who can predict what obstacles his opponents will face in a field of this size trying to catch Trinniberg loose on an easy lead in a cavalry charge of this magnitude. In fact, if he gets a favorable post and gets away clean to an easy lead, he stands a better chance in a ridiculously large field that elevates the factor of racing luck far above the weight it should bear in a high caliber Grade 1 Triple Crown Race than he would in a field of more reasonable size. Under these circumstances, Parbhoo's decision to reverse course can bear some weight and defense in an evaluation of the colt's chances in a 1 1/4 Triple Crown classic. If the horse does not draw favorably, Parbhoo will probably scratch him. If I recall correctly, previous to his reversal of course, Parbhoo had decried the temptation to run the horse at Churchill just for the thrill of competing in the Kentucky Derby. As I remember, he said those kind of fanciful longings for glory did not come close to the need to do what is right for a very promising three year old who is at home in the ranks of milers. I'd predict that sentiment will again take precedent if Trinniberg does not draw favorably and Parbhoo will see to it that the horse is scratched. In the meantime with the possibility now open that Trinniberg can get away with an easy lead in a scenario where there is a 19 horse field behind him where anything could happen to ruin the chances of his toughest competitors, why shouldn't Parbhoo keep his options open until he sees how things play out in the draw for the post. The chances for Triple Crown glory comes around rarely so why not entertain them until the hard reality of an unfavorable post draw dictates otherwise, Parbhoo rouses himself to shakes off the fanciful allure of glory, and does what is right for his horse as his earlier statements indicate he knows he should.

25 Apr 2012 1:36 PM
steve from st louis

And Dray the only way YOU ever cash a ticket is to find one on the ground while you're adroitly flipping them over with your severely grass-stained tennis shoes.

25 Apr 2012 2:00 PM
Weekend

So, the most interesting thing I have heard from a trainer is that Went the Day Well was bred for dirt, and he could pull the old De Ja vu with Motion and Valesquez. Same trainer also said Dullahan more of turf synthetic horse with the high leg action, but we all already knew that. Lastly, he said if he could have any horse going into the Derby, it would be ........

Union Rags

25 Apr 2012 2:03 PM
Jason Shandler

Thanks to everyone contributing to this blog; a lot of good observations. Only one thing missing: Mike Revla's keen insights and selections. He is sorely missed. Man, it's hard to keep a straight face when you write these things...

25 Apr 2012 2:28 PM
steve from st louis

I see today where Southern Equine paid millions to buy a piece of Bodemeister after spending $14 million in 2008 to buy Better Than Honour, the dam of two Belmont winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches.

Let me guess, they're going to breed her to Draynay's "lock" 2010 Horse of the Year Quality Road? No. How 'bout Draynay's "lock" 2011 Horse of the Year, Uncle Mo? I don't think so. How about his  "lock" Derby and Preakness winner this year,  Union Rags? Probably not. Let's face it, if Draynay were a thoroughbred, he'd be nothing but a teaser.

25 Apr 2012 2:37 PM
It aint easy being good!

KT VET that was great you made me laugh calling him coldcuts on the milk carton. Coldfacts I listen to what you have to say but stop the nonsense and start talking about some other horses. Your points on dross in the classic were spot on this year I dont know what the heck you are talking about hence the reason everyone is ganging up on you!

Johnny I believe coldfacts was on masters of hounds or brillant speed. Regardless I was ripping up my tickets last year because I followed the coldfacts path. Thats ok I am a supporter of him and will follow him through the fields of babylon as soon as he gets off his done talking nonsense!

25 Apr 2012 2:41 PM
Ra1nmaker

Well, but Jason:

Missing from Geronimo123's reply to Householder apparently is an understanding that Bodemeister was never inTENded for the San Felipe Stakes, a race targeted for Bode's barn-mate, Fed Biz--scratched due to injury.

(That Bodemeister indeed "LOST that race!" as Gernimo123 loudly proclaims, is inconsequential. You see this, don't you, Geronimo123?)

Thereafter, much was made among media mavens and elsewhre about the "strong gallop-out" by Creative Cause. (CC's connections obviously fired their best shot for the win, perhaps in the wake of unjust criticism following CC's 3rd, in the Sham Stakes).

But the San Felipe amounted to a paid workout, for Bodemeister. Who undoubtedly benefited from the race, undercranked for it though he obviously was.

Geronimo123 writes:

< He was passed by the same horse who actually lost ground in the final furlong to Hansen in the BC Juvenile. ... An E-2 of 114 by Hansen at CD and yet CC could not make up any ground?

< But he sure did it with Bode. >

Do tell.

Interestingy, Hansen's celebrated BC Juvenile win constitutes his only Grade 1 stakes victory, the white horse coming up a length-&-a-quarter *shy* in his second G1 start.

Apart from those, Hansen can boast only two Grade-Threes.

By comparison Creative Cause, at least, has two Grade-TWO wins in his kick, losing while "between horses" what could (and arguably should, by only a nose) have been the 2ND of his two Grade One wins.

More to the point, CC's 1-length margin against Bodemeister's was in Bode's (UNscheduled) FIRST stakes start, a G2 *class test* and only Bode's third career start; whereas Creative Cause was every bit the sixth-time stakes runner.

You might want to factor that into your thinking, before betting with both fists.

< No one is saying Bode can not rate. It just looks like he can not rate and WIN. >

Not to me. But draw your own conclusion$.

For, much as I like Hansen's chances, I like Bodemeister's better. (In any event, Dullahan likely is more of a force to be reckoned with, going forward. We'll see.

25 Apr 2012 3:08 PM
Carlos in Cali

So,I heard Eddie Castro turned down the ride on Alpha.. because he'd rather stay in NY to ride in a $100k Stakes race.Ouch!!

Let me know when the hyped-up UR wins a 2-turn Gr.I race.

Draynay is played out.. like polyester and plaid.

25 Apr 2012 3:16 PM
Ranagulzion

PAPILLION,

That was a very interesting piece of equine psychology 25April 2012, 12:04PM.

Lets see how it plays out in this Derby ...lots of interesting angle to thi year's renewal.

If Hansen is the alpha male that you make of him, I think that Trinniberg is gonna toast ...or should I say roast him before the home stretch. He's seen Algorithm and Dullahan blow past him before. This time he's gonna see a lot more going by IF he's really the aplha male you make him out to be.  The real "alpha colt" not the imposter going by that name, is being ridden by Julien Leparoux and he'll cross the wire FIRST!!!

25 Apr 2012 3:19 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ra1nmaker,

That's what I've been saying about Bode: The San Felipe was his 3rd career start-1st around 2 turns and Baffert entered him hastily w/out much training.

Then I said he'd improve big time once Baffert tightens the screws on him but people like the amateur handicapper known as KY VET scoffed at that notion and said "training doesn't make horses better".HA!!

25 Apr 2012 3:28 PM
Johnny

Ty it aint easy..

I believe you are correct..

Question for all what is your favorite Derby wager??

Does Liason have a shot to sneak into the money??

Baffert says he hated Santa Antia.

Good luck to all..

25 Apr 2012 3:35 PM
bohemiastable

To this point I had felt Trinniberg the most improved 3 yr old in training with a big future in front of him this year. He is one of those few horses every year I took a short price for a big win bet. After seeing absolutely crush in FL I had no doubts in the weak field he faced in NY he was a cinch if he finished the race with four legs.

I thought I was seeing a horse that was going to win a lot of money—not just in sprints but as the season went on some big pots at a route as well. Now the Derby?

Following the path his sire (Teuflesberg) who I thought as one of the most poorly managed talanted horses ever, he goes into a Derby with all sorts of speed already signed on. He is in my opinion much better than people think and actually I believed a force to come in his division throughout the year—now?

Another point on Derby day coming----Why do they think training Union Rags almost the same as Barbaro will have him peaked the same way? Yes, I rate Matz highly—maybe I shouldn’t question his methods because he has proven his skill---but a few years ago and even watching Barbaro as a 2yr old turfer thought he was “special” and loved him in the that Derby and bet accordingly. I would love to see another race in Union Rags—a very easy victory rapped up in his first start, and blocked merry go round race in his second---nice horse,a very nice horse, but this is 1 ¼ race and bet your last dollar he won’t be on the inside for long even if he breaks from the one hole after the FL Derby mess so he better be tight. Julian will be losing ground he won’t be following Clavin around the track. He can win, and plaudits to Matz if he does,---but in my mind he is no Barbaro and will need breaks going his way. He may be one of the best but the right trip is going to win this Derby among a very well matched group. All the articles comparing the way the two are being bought to the race similarly—why? Barbaro had won easily every time on turf then one his only race on the dirt not as easily but still had won going long –many route races showing distance would be no problem. The same is not for Union Rags.

First blog in months—Reading the posts little has changed character wise. Waiting to hear like posts about the big place score made on Nehro last year again after the Derby----lamest post race comment------“"""" ever”"""".

25 Apr 2012 3:46 PM
plodderman

Hey Draynay.... While you played Big Brown in the Belmont, I unloaded on the only speed in the race and won. You have knowledge-I don't doubt that, but you also are very predictable in your picks. Favorites-high beyers-big closers are all you bet. I've never seen you pick a horse that has been quitting or jumping way up in class or changing distances. You only bet the obvious, Dray. This is the reason that I go to breakfast and you go to work each morning. Get off your high horse and beat this game.

-"head and shoulders above the rest" and then you have a 6-horse box in the Derby. A CLASSIC!! (pun intended)

25 Apr 2012 3:53 PM
Mary

CARLOS IN CALI, I have told you this before, Union Rags has won a 2 turn race, it is called the Fountain of Youth.

25 Apr 2012 3:58 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion,

I know you're smart enough to catch my drift mi amigo.

I'll post my Derby picks the week of,if that's cool w/you?

25 Apr 2012 3:59 PM
It aint easy being good!

Bode is adding 8 lbs for the derby not 2 or 3 lbs 8 pounds! Did you hear me he 8 pounds you people need to wake up he has no chance. TOSS TOSS TOSS!

25 Apr 2012 4:05 PM
Carlos in Cali

Mary, you have me confused with someone else. Btw: I said a "Gr.1" which the FOY is not.

It aint easy, Bode has a better chance than the Gr.III winning,3rd tier-track running DNB,but go ahead and stick with him.How many times do I have to learn ya'?.. lol.

25 Apr 2012 4:48 PM
Ranagulzion

Si Senor Carlos. Looking forward ... although having caught your drift many times before I can make a very good guess (LOL).  What a great Derby this one is?!!!

A white Corvette versus a Lamborghini and a Ferrari, wow!!! thats a lot a horsepower Compadre.

25 Apr 2012 4:51 PM
steve from st louis

There's no reason to go out on a thin limb and say Bodemeister has no chance--"toss, toss, toss". If you don't like him and you think picking up eight pounds prevents him from winning, fine. Bet against him.

But his 108 Beyer is 10 to 14 points higher than the winning figures in this year's four other Grade I prep races: the Blue Grass (98), Wood (98), Florida Derby (95) and Santa Anita Derby (94).

And in the 2007 Arkansas Derby, Curlin won by 10 1/2 and posted a 105 Beyer in 1:50. Bodemeister ran the distance in a wrapped up 1:48.71 (compare that to the Oaklawn Handicap run earlier on the card, by a quality field of older horses including this year's Donn Handicap and Big 'Cap winners, who ran the same distance in 1:49.94)

Curlin did run third in the Derby but he did win the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Breeders' Cup Classic and Horse of the Year. So "toss toss, toss"  Bodemeister? Please do. Baby needs new shoes.

25 Apr 2012 5:15 PM
Carlos in Cali

To Honor and Serve is Back!!

I'm sure he'll need a race but he's the absolute class of the field.

It aint easy,- pay attention if you want to make some $$,forget about Coldfacts or Draynay: THS,Bold Deed

w/THS,BD

w/Boys',M's Guy

w/Boy's,M's Guy,J.Town

This is the only race were THS will be vulnerable this year.

25 Apr 2012 5:39 PM
Mary Zinke

I'm not her.

And don't forget Algorithms was scratched from the F.O.Y.

25 Apr 2012 5:41 PM
bohemiastable

Anybody realize the Derby is on the  5th of May and we haven't seen the horses do their last breezes nor the weather reports?

Pre-race geniuses--just not gamblers of any note

One prediction though

Race favorite at post time Union Rags @7-2 off odds-- Bodi second choice off odds 4-1/9-2 with 3 others under 10-1 @ post time

Next prediction --on fast track will get 10-1 or better on I'll Have Another

Pick the winner and the money is there to be made.

25 Apr 2012 5:45 PM
It aint easy being good!

Carlos why do you need to post your derby picks we all know your going with the front running burnouts!

I never said that GR III winning Daddy was my horse I am just saying he will be right there at the wire. Carlos I have 2 horses to bet undefeated Gemologist...Do you need to me explain ok I will. First and foremost GEM has never lost I repeat GEM has never lost. I dont care who you are if your undefeated your damn good! 2 he has raced and WON twice at churchill. Three GME has an allstar trainer and OOOOOO I forgot his jockey is on fire! Carlos are you still there....next horse DULLAHAN why he just blew past Hansen like he was standing still he is a grown man compared to last year he has the best closing speed out of anyhorse. Brillant speed who was 5th in last years derby and ran 3 seconds slower then dullahans bluegrass....YES PLEASE! I am the king of churchill ....I will admit I suck at betting keeland and Turfway but know my dirt horses. Please follow me if you want the golden tickets!

25 Apr 2012 5:59 PM
robinm

Carlos, remind me please.  Just how far did Hansen sit off of the "cheap speed" in the Gotham?  What were the fractions he tracked? And, what is the distance of the Gotham?  

Do you see where I am going with this?

25 Apr 2012 6:07 PM
furlongs

Draynay do you know how easy it is to find negatives when it comes to past performance and horse racing? I mean really, so first it was the slow quarter he ran. Then when someone shows you bet a horse few years back just like it then you talk about losses and passing horses... You are nothing but excuses. First Gem has no shot then when you realized you ran your mouth to soon you backed from that as well and now give him a chance to win the race! When you box 6 horses it is telling the world you have no idea who can win the race your playing or it says you wear a sweet pair of panties to the track. We all know what broke Big Brown down, the leg came unglued do to your weight betting him to win the Triple Crown... Uncle Mo same result Draynay on board he becomes Uncle Slow... DO the Thoroughbred business and animal lovers of the world a real favor and stop calling horse "monsters", "fastest ever" and "triple crown winner" your killing the business as we know it and ending these horses careers! good luck on that $1 Ex box and $.50 Tri box in the Derby...

25 Apr 2012 6:49 PM
KY VET

CARLOS.........Bodemeister won......GET OVER IT!

25 Apr 2012 7:07 PM
Slew

I feel bad for Trinniberg.  He hasn't had the prep work necessary to work up to the 10f distance.  But he has become "the" rabbit.  Now we watch to see who takes the bait.  But what's going to happen to Trinniberg?

25 Apr 2012 7:12 PM
JerseyBoy

CHIEF PICAWINNA:

One of the things that occur in racing is that someone makes a statement which gets repeated until it is treated as a fact. Anyone who questions the statement is seen as a heretic.

One of these is that European horses run only at the end of their races. If this were so the speedballs in America would go over to Europe and clean up in the Group 1 races. Many have tried and failed because it is simply untrue that they “only run hard a small part of the race”.

In fact, to ensure that the races are a true test of stamina, the Euros often employ pacemakers. This is the reason horses are often held up for one run. The pacemakers will burn them out if they tried to steal it by going to the lead. Notice that the Euros have no problem winning in America.

The horses are 3yos in their Classics just as in America. Most have never raced beyond a mile before running in the 2000 guineas.

You can watch the 2000 Guineas on May 5 on TV. You will see that that race is an unrelenting gallop over a straight mile. There is no room to hide.

By the way, 2-yo horses have won first time out going nine furlongs in America. It is a question of how the horse is trained.

In the case of Trinniberg, I regard him as a sprinter. I will never back him in a 10-furlong race that looks like it will be truly run.

To see how European races are often run, go to Youtube and watch Galileo v Fantastic Light in the King George:

www.bing.com/.../search

25 Apr 2012 7:25 PM
Householder

No way Baffert is worried about some cheap speed.  He already knows Bodemeister can sit back.  He'll give the jockey 3-4 horses to keep his eye on and one of them will be Creative Cause.  The San Felipe is Bodemeister's without Creative Cause.  The San Felipe is actually a good race for CC as nothing could close at Santa Anita over the dirt. And as far as losing ground in the stretch to Hansen, Union Rag's drunken run in the Breeder's Cup pushes CC right up under Hansen's butt.  CC's jockey lets him jog out after this.  It was over.  Bode will get the jump on CC but CC will be grinding it out with others the last 1/8th just by the way he breaks and tracks.  Just keep him clear. Keep Union Rags or I'll Have Another on the ticket along with some deep synthetic/turf closer.

There is some good stuff up front though this time around.  Take Charge Indy is another who will be forwardly placed and may give Bode, Hansen, and "Cheap Speed" someting to chew on in the early going.  

25 Apr 2012 7:50 PM
Carlos in Cali

robinm,

That's my point.The splits weren't quick in the Gotham and he still sat behind 1-1 1/2L from the "cheap speed" King and Crusader until Dominguez gave him his cue on the far turn.

Now,with Trinniberg likely setting faster splits in the Derby,I see no reason why he won't rate behind faster "cheap speed"- at least 4L I'd say.

If you're implying that he can't go the 10f of the Derby because the synthetic loving Dullahan caught him in the BG Stakes @ 9f.. so be it.But,IMO-if that race was on dirt Hansen would've won it easily.Nobody goes wire-to-wire routing @ Keeneland anymore and they broke a stakes record to boot.

Hope that explains my thought process?

25 Apr 2012 8:04 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

Boys At Toscanova and Jersey Townshould should be too much for To Honor and Serve at this time. Next time it will be the Met Mile and from my vantage point that one will be Caleb's Posse's race. No doubt about it.

25 Apr 2012 8:25 PM
Paula Higgins

Mike Relva, come back and defend yourself buddy. Jason, you are not being warm and fuzzy.

25 Apr 2012 9:01 PM
Shoe Board Sal

I can't accept any more excuses on behalf of Afleet Alex and particularly Point Given. Neither was good enough to win the Derby, by far the most difficult and prestigious TC race.

Someone estimated that Afleet Alex ran 6f. in the low 1:10 range in 2005.  By the chart, he was 5 lengths off the pace at the time, which would mean he went about 1:10 3/5. That's fast, but it necessarily means he came home the

last half in an Arabian like 52.35 to 52.95 seconds. Also CLOSING ARGUMENT was closer to the early pace than Afleet Alex and he finished in FRONT of Afleet Alex.  So even if AA had been able to hold off the onrushing power of Giacomo, he still would not have won the Derby.  

In 2001, the real victim of the ferocious early pace was the great Congaree, the superior stablemate to Point Given.  Congaree went the first 6f. in about 1:09 3/5 that year, and was much closer to the early pace than Point Given.  At the wire, Congaree was almost 7 lengths (SEVEN LENGTHS) in FRONT of Point Given.  Point Given was beaten badly with no excuse whatsoever.  So no, "sitting too close to the pace" obviously did not cost Point Given a Triple Crown,as his stablemate was much closer and still beat him handily.  That's the simple fact of what happened on the track that day.  Anything else is fabulist revisionism.

25 Apr 2012 9:35 PM
Draynay

Furlongs do you believe ANY of your BS.  When El Overrated beat up Mark to win EVERYONE was bragging how good he was.  NOT ME.  I told EVERYONE he was OVERRATED.  I was RIGHT wasn't I?  Gem isn't going to win but 3rd or 4th is possible so on the ticket he goes.  Do you know who will get 3rd or 4th?  My 6 horse Super cost 360 bucks and from a BETTING standpoint it would be great for DNB to beat him but that is not what I think will happen.  In my expert opinion Union Rags is simply MUCH better than anything else in the field.  The other thing that stands out about Union Rags is no horse has ever gained on him in stretch.  Never.  He may end up a little wide at the top of the stretch but he has that button and will be nearly impossible to catch.  And for the rest of you talking about Bode please stop.  He has only won on the lead.  He has never won without being on the lead and I can promise you he won't beat Trinni to the lead.  Toss Bode and Hansen and listen from now on to EVERYTHING I tell you.  I am the Derby Master.

25 Apr 2012 9:42 PM
papillon

ranagulzion, i don't expect trinniberg to actually have the lead for any length of time or by any great distance, if at all, though i hope he is fastest enough and secure enough to let hansen sit about a head to a neck off him like king and crusader did, because the longer hansen has company, the longer he keeps kicking--the footage of hard spun's derby that someone posted the link to above, is i think pretty much spot on of what i am expecting of hansen.

but i don't think any closer in this field is as good a street sense, and i don't think street sense could have caught hard spun with out calvin's dare-devil ride--even assuming dullahan is sound, kent is not a dare devil, he'll take a safe hole if one opens before him like the parting of the red sea, but he won't risk it all on teeny tiny little crack. none of the closers pointing to this ky derby are of the the caliber of a z or blind luck, who can make their own race.

ps: ky vet ;-)

25 Apr 2012 10:52 PM
vader

speed horses makes the derby really exciting. All horses in the races should gave there best at any part of the race. The speed balls at the start, the pack horses after a mile and the closer at the end. And May the best horse wins.

25 Apr 2012 11:20 PM
Coldfacts

Johnny,

My selection in the 2011 Derby was indeed Master Of Hounds. He finished a willing 5th beaten less the 4L. The 2011 Derby had some the slowest splits in the last 50 Years. Those splits no one could have projected. This did not help MOH. This colt made his 3YO Debut in Dubai 4 ½ months after his last 2YO race. He lost by the shortest of margins. His next start on a different continent was the KD 39 day later.  Two race on two continents in six months and finished 2nd and 5th beaten < 5L.

It takes a brave gamblers to select such a horse.

25 Apr 2012 11:26 PM
ghostzapper

I dont think that Trinniberg falls into the "cheap spped "category, I also respect his connections, I have seen this guys improved horses before, and have been following this one,visually impressive in last 2,Im not saying he will win But it wont surprise me if he put away Bode and specially the white horse wish have 0 chance, still set it up for first fliers cc,ur,and tcI good luck to all of you including Draynay

25 Apr 2012 11:35 PM
Pine_Bluff_987

Carlos in Cali - RE:  Keeneland.  I was there for the Bluegrass weekend.  For the majority of the spring meet, the main track has been playing very fast, fast times are be posted - plentiful.  That being said - Wise Dan had an awesome performance in the older stakes this past w-end.  My take is dirt is Hansen's preferred surface, but I think there are better options for the Derby given the pace scenario, improving horses, etc.  I do not view or write often and cannot seem to understand the heat this Draynay subscriber takes.  I prefer a wheel bet to a box, but if there is ever a race to to multi-horse boxes, this may be it.  I do not understand anyone with the Grade 1 angle win leading up to the Derby.  What's the point?  Anyway.  DNB is coming up to this race ready to run the race of his life.  Training very well over the surface, layoff, jockey, pace scenario all fit.  Hooking up DMB with Summer Applause for the OAKS/DERBY double.  Good luck!

26 Apr 2012 12:02 AM
robinm

Carlos; I understand your conclusions, but I don't think Hansen will willingly sit 4 lengths off another horse.  I think he would fight his jockey for every inch of rein, and as you know, this kind of fight takes a lot out of a horse.  Don't get me wrong; I think Hansen is brilliant, but I think his only chance of getting the distance and winning the Derby, would be to sneak away to an easy lead and put everyone to sleep.  Getting this scenario before Trinnenberg was declared in was doubtful; now I think ridiculously fast fractions for the distance are guaranteed.

It's clear you've put a lot of thought into your conclusions and I wish you (and Hansen) well.

26 Apr 2012 12:14 AM
Coldfacts

It aint easy being good!

I have no problems engaging in exchanges with you. However, I would appreciate not being mentioned in the same sentence or paragraph with Mr. More Better who is clearly SOS.  On the subject of Done Talking, I think you misunderstand my position. I made a boat load of money from his IL Derby victory. Mr. Shandler and others have posted disparaging statements about the little colt. Since I benefited from his brave and determined effort I had no option but to defend him. I am obligated to include him in by wagers as his effort created my Derby chest. I am in no way touting this colt. I have highlighted his pedigree profile and advise that he can run much faster than his IL Derby time. He will stay 10F effectively and is a relatively unknown quantity. Why disparage a colt that has something on his résumé that the majority of the Derby starters do not.

The following colts do not have a 9F victory on their résumés: Alpha, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen, Liaison, Sabercat, Trinniberg, El Padrino, Mark Velaski, Rousing Sermon and Prospective.

Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best and El Padrino are the only colts in the field with two starts at 9F.

Done Talking is the only colt that passed 11 horses on the way to his 9F victory. Dullahan is next.

Is he fast enough to get into contention? I really do not know. He seems to run fast enough for his three wins and closed fast enough to be ½ behind El Padrino in the Remsen. The jury is still out on how good this colt is. If you do not like him ignore all my posts in defense of him. It is unwise to regard the views of others as nonsense before a race with the history of the Derby is run.

I encourage you to read the story of Canonero II. In the 2009 Derby Tom Durkin was at a loss for words and when he found some he shouted in amazement “Mine That Bird an impossible result” I am having a little fun with DT, what possible harm can this cause. BTW I am not obsessed with the colt. I have made it clear that I place a future wager on Alpha and I am sticking with him. However, I am being perplexed by another colt.

26 Apr 2012 12:26 AM
Mike Monarchos

Oh great "Derby Master",

Bodemeister can win without being on the lead. Just because he hasn't done doesn't mean he can't!  

Rags hasn't won a two turn grade 1 yet either so I guess that means he can't win the Derby. Gemologist and Bodemeister have both won grade 1 two turn race so they're more qualified to win the Derby than Rags. El Padrino might beat Rags in the Derby too because he has better thoro-graph numbers. Did ya think about that "Derby Master"?

Bejarano is riding El Padrino, which could help.

Bodemeister has a lower thoro-graph number than any horse in the field. Gem is just as fast as Rags and is undefeated and has two wins at Churchill. Gem and El Padrino have both shown significant improvement from 2 to 3 and Rags hasn't. Just some food for thought there " Derby Master". I rest my case.

26 Apr 2012 1:07 AM
Ra1nmaker

That you must prove, Draynay.

I know that I'LL be shocked, STUNNED, if Daddy Nose Best proves to be classy enough to best this field.

As for Union Rags, I'm looking for reasons to keep him among the third tier of my superfectas; I want to use him, there--in deference to those sweeping wins he makes. But I wonder if he's just too slow to win this thing, or even make the exacta.

Dray propounds:

< Bode has NEVER won if not on the lead. >

It's true! throughout his entire careeer of Four Whole Starts (into one of which Bode likely was rushed, substituting for injured Fed Biz. And was, basically, just out for exercise).

Am I supposed to extract a TREND, from this vast sample?

...but you've *made him* for a Needs-to-Lead type already, haven't you?  Shrewd!

< Trinni will be on the lead not Bode. >

I, frankly don't give a damn WHAT Trinni does--up to and including sing "Lemon Tree" into the clubhouse turn. So long as Mike Smith doesn't move too soon.

< The only way Bode hits the board is if he jumps the fence and runs into it.

Pithy! but you're whistling past the graveyard with that remark, am I right?

< By the way please do not compare Bode to Big Brown.  Bode already has more losses than Big Brown had in his entire career.  DA >

The same could be said of the great Kelso, along with any number of colts better than Big Brown (...good as he was) that placed and then won, twice each -- or vice versa -- their first 4 races.

Now, what has THAT to do with the price of tea in China?

26 Apr 2012 1:08 AM
Matthew W

Bohemiastable: My prediction: Union Rags, race favorite, $6.70-1, Bodemiester $6.80-1, eight more under 12-1, in the best betting race horse racing has ever seen!

Carlos In Cali: Polyester and plaid? That's what Bud Delp wore when I met him for the only time in my life! We had walked up the path from the recieving barn to saddling barn, that beautiful/simple long green saddling barn, I saw Bid and Paster and I said to my brother "I can't believe how much better Paster looks than Bid"--my brother goes "wait till you see them run, you won't believe what The Bid can do..."..Delp comes over and  says "ya better listen to that guy!" , Bud liked to talk and he won a ton of races, but did he ever get his flower horse when The Bid came along....

Ky Vet you mean the front side of cottage cheese cartons?!

26 Apr 2012 3:18 AM
Matthew W

Paynter in Derby Trial, 2-1 will do, He's a real nice colt....

26 Apr 2012 3:20 AM
Matthew W

Paynter's out of a full to Tiznow, talk about a nick, I saw him break his mdn and was notably impressed, that is to say, I noted it--his run in SA Derby was solid, three weeks since may bounce, that was a tough race he was in--if no bounce, he rolls--kind of a win/or off the board type!

26 Apr 2012 3:24 AM
Geronimo2123

Ra1nmaker,

I am aware that Baffert entered Bode in the SF after pointing him to something else, much like Hansen was pointing to the Wood originally.

No one is saying Bode CAN NOT win (I am not, anyhow). What I am saying is for the logical post time favorite he has some chinks in the armor we need to address.

And do not forget Bode carried less weight than Hansen did their last race...4 lbs. So, it will be even weight across the board. But again, Hansen is not the favorite. I predict Hansen goes off at 9-1 or 10-1. Bode will go off at about half of that. So, judge accordingly. Bode has a higher standard to live up to as the favorite. I am sorry if doing what horseplayers have done for years (picking at the M/L favorite) bothers you. Don't marry a horse before the Derby...

That is all...

As for Bode, very good horse, but a few chinks in the armor so far:

I do know that twice he has rated and twice he has not won. I am sure he had an excuse for his first loss as well.

Papillion,

Good post on Alpha male types, running styles, etc.

A true speed horse with stamina will run the other speed off of their feet whether they win or not. They are the Alphas in the barn. Same thing with racing greyhounds. I studied wild horses for quite some time. The Alpha is always in front. Go in front of him and there is a fight. It is instinct for the toughest horse physically and psychologically to be in front of the pack.

In any event, true frontrunners are often very headstrong: Dr. Fager was completely out of control and would actually try and throw the exercise rider when they tried to rate him: Ditto for Seattle Slew. War Emblem was incredibly mean and dominant and a head case...Hard Spun did not like to be rated much and also would run any other speed that went with him off of his feet and never finished worse than 4th in any race. He actually never finished worse than 2nd in any race he set the pace in--regardless of distance.

Whether Hansen can get 10f is to be seen. But he has the fire of a true front runner. He will run his race regardless.

26 Apr 2012 3:31 AM
ksweatman9

Zenyatta didn't have problems with Churchill, she had problems eating kick back dirt, she wasn't used to it. Still, the great mare cut through the best males running in 2009 and 2010 like a knife slicing jello. She is possibly the best mare to ever grace the track. Now I remember Draynay, he is the only person on the planet who doesn't like the big Z.

26 Apr 2012 4:46 AM
2:24

Shoe Board Sal - everyone is entitled to their opinion but to say Congaree was superior to Point Given is like saying Sham was superior to Secretariat because he finished ahead of him in the Wood.

26 Apr 2012 5:53 AM
Guiness

That was a punch to the stomach there Jason.

Mike Relva you better come back and defend yourself.

Jason, I do believe you're missing Mike's intelligent input on things.

26 Apr 2012 6:09 AM
Draynay

I hate the State Restricted Poly Champion ?  No I hate what they did to the SOY award.  No horse has ever won the award doing so little and everyone knows Blame got robbed and was the REAL HOY.  You can't hide in restricted races all year and then appear for the big one and LOSE.  It is a black eye on racing and always will be.  She didn't win on dirt vs. males and didn't win a Triple Crown race and she never won East of the Mississippi.  She was a really good poly horse but Wise Dan is better.  Big deal.  Get ready for a sharp work by Union Rags making him the Derby favorite !!!

26 Apr 2012 9:18 AM
Union Buster

The other thing that stands out about Union Rags is no horse has ever gained on him in stretch.  Never.  

Draynay 25 Apr 2012 9:42 PM

Thats B.S. What really stands out is your inability to grasp reality. Go back and watch the Br. Cup Juvenile but this time take your stary eyes off "on the rags" and take a gander at Dullahan who is making up plenty of lengths on "rags" all the way through the stretch. So much for never been gained on in the stretch. People here have gotten far to used to your lies to believe anything you say. I may start calling you "Mitt".

"rags" has not improved to date over last year. Look at his speed ratings whether they be Bris or Beyers. While others have made leaps and bounds since last year he's been remarkably consistent running far too slow to win a Ky. Derby. They would need to contract with GE for some jet engines to insert in his shoes for him to win.  

union on the rags will not win the Ky, Derby!!

26 Apr 2012 9:23 AM
Weekend

Rang, I usually like your takes and we agree on many topics and subjects, but To Honor and Serve is going to serve a nice can of whoop a** this weekend. He is training great, and as Mott's own son said, he has never seen Billy as giddy with a horse as he is with THAS right now...

Paynter had a nice blowout yesterday, he will be tough on Saturday night.

Carlos, I am with you in regards to Hansen. He is going to sit off the speed, make his move on the turn, and lead them into the stretch. What happens then is up to Union Rags, Gemologist, and Went the Day Well. El Padrino and Take Charge Indy will fight for a piece, and DNB and Dullahan will try but not get up in time.

Anyone hear that Creative Cause pretty much had a terrible work and puked coming off of the track?? not a good sign.

I have been thinking we could have the same Super as the BCJ, but I dont like the way CC is coming into the race now. He will have to sway me with his work next week.

26 Apr 2012 9:29 AM
Ted from LA

Dray,

You're the only gambler I know what hopes his horse is the favorite.  I hope mine is the longest shot on the board... which he might be.

26 Apr 2012 10:07 AM
Mike Monarchos

"Derby Master",

If Rags is so good key him on top in your super bets and save money. The fact is, Union Rags' speed figures have not improved from last year.

I know you'll say he didn't go all out in the Fountain of Youth, and he got a bad trip in the Florida Derby, but that's horse racing. You said Gemologist isn't fast enough, but he ran 1:35 and change in his GP Allowance win, and was ridden out. He could have run faster.

You say El Padrino is overrated. Well he has improved his speed figures from 2 to 3. His thoro-graph number was lower than Rags and Take Charge Indy's in the Florida Derby, probably because he ran alot farther! El Padrino WILL be a factor in the Derby.

If Rags is behind Gemologist at the 1/8 pole he'll have trouble passing him cauz he's got Tiznow's heart. Just more food for thought for that mensa brain of yours Dray. LOL!

26 Apr 2012 10:47 AM
bohemiastable

Matthew --the odds maker:

(Note I actually took over the odds making duties at a major circuit when the regular went on vacation or got sick for 3 yrs. so would do it for 4 or 5 days a year--I based it on 120/125% not 100% total in big fields as I thought the public would move, not my picks)

If this prediction below of yours is even remotely right--since I can't eat the paper as in old days speak, I wrote mine on--I'll eat the computer screen. Dray has a better chance of being closer, so you know your chances.

Bohemia stable: My prediction: Union Rags, race favorite, $6.70-1, Bodemiester $6.80-1, eight more under 12-1, in the best betting race horse racing has ever seen!

Matthew W 26 Apr 2012 3:18 AM

As to the other great predictions --I will go on record after final works and weather forecast for the 5th---Believe it or not people, a sealed wet-fast track just may cause different results than a tiring slow track (you may even throw in post positions). Then and only then can you all tell me I no nothing and my horse/horses have no chance when posted with good thought---AND after the Derby if wrong, I will admit it and congratulate the correct "Prognosticaters" and not talk about my huge place bet score to try to save face.

I can be wrong, but I am not lame.  

26 Apr 2012 11:24 AM
Draynay

Ted your horse has no shot in the Derby.  None.  Mike you lost me at El Overrated.  Wake up.  Union Buster you have no idea what you are talking about and your screen name is just sad.  Cheer your horse on loser don't root against another.  Rookie.

26 Apr 2012 11:31 AM
Ra1nmaker

Ksweatman,

I like Zenyatta, who could forget her? However, the "best mare to ever grace a track" was Kinscem.

tjezjen.blogspot.com/.../kinscemcombuscan-waternymph-foaled.html

26 Apr 2012 12:32 PM
plodderman

A rookie mistake from a so called MASTER is hoping his "can't lose" horse has a great work and becomes the Derby Favorite. A REAL horseplayer makes a bets and hopes the odds go UP and not DOWn. Does the odds dropping make you feel all warm and happy as you lose? Does the chalk factor make your excauses any more plausable? Knowledge and ability are 2 very different things. This is the ;ast time i say it...... Some people "hit" longshots and some people "handicap" them. If you look me up at the Del'Cap room on Derby Day, you can learn something....Take a boat, train, car, airplane or taxi.....Just get there. Second table on the right as you walk in.

26 Apr 2012 1:17 PM
JayJay

" Cheer your horse on loser don't root against another.  Rookie.  Rookie.

Draynay 26 Apr 2012 11:31 AM "

You're a real clown and a hypocrite.  You can't pick winners because you don't know anything, you're probably the worst handicapper in here, but that's only because KY Vet is shy with his picks.  Seriously, stop trying too hard, you're a nobody when it comes to handicapping.  Guys like you are a dime a dozen, the "I knew that horse would win, I knew it, it was all in the form!!"  except they don't have any money on him after betting a 4 horse box.  Guys like you will never win because you don't know how to handicap.  Just like how Jason sees Mark Valeski, you're a one pace horse.  You can't win unless you bet the chalk.  For all the picks you've posted, your win percentage is pathetic, and most if not all are the heavy favorites.  See what I'm saying ??  Try the quarterhorses, leave the thorouhbred betting to the big boys.  It's time for you to have a time out.

26 Apr 2012 2:13 PM
Minnesota Kid

It is difficult to believe the amount of absurd, self-righteous comments concerning the POSSIBLE entry of Trinniberg into Derby 138.

If you are one of the posters already questioning Trinniberg's connections, let me ask you this--

Will you let me know the next time you have a 3YO in the top 20 in GSE in late April, but still decide to pass the Derby?

Then, and only then, will we be able to accept your self-righteousness.

As for the clown that goes by "draynay"--It is a real shame that mommy and daddy did not show you enough attention when you were a child. Everyone that reads this blog is now paying for that.

BTW, "draynay", when you are using the word expert to describe yourself, it is "an expert", not "a expert".  I think we covered that in 3rd grade back in Minnesota.

26 Apr 2012 2:17 PM
Draynay

plodderman unlike you I do it for the sport not the money.  I would love to see Union as the favorite.  He deserves to be the favorite he is the best horse in the race by far.  If I win a few bucks less big deal.  It won't make or break me either way.  I played one blackjack hand a few years ago for more money than I have ever bet in a single day at the track !

26 Apr 2012 2:21 PM
It aint easy being good!

Coldfacts you posted this earlier:

The following colts do not have a 9F victory on their résumés: Alpha, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen, Liaison, Sabercat, Trinniberg, El Padrino, Mark Velaski, Rousing Sermon and Prospective.

Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best and El Padrino are the only colts in the field with two starts at 9F.

So with the latter part being true how can you not love DNB who ran 5 seconds faster in his last prep?? Please help me understand how you can love Done talking but not love DNB I think I figured out why. Most people that bet including myself stick to the horses that have won them money. I have been on IHA for awhile now because he has won alot of money for me so why stop now right?

26 Apr 2012 2:42 PM
ksweatman9

Thank you for the link Ra1nmaker, very interesting. I suppose that's why I often refer to horses like Zenyatta as modern day greats. It's hard to draw comparisons to warriors in the past. I must say though, as far as Zenyatta goes, she had far more potential than she was allowed to exhibit. Nevertheless, she is a great thoroughbred. Let's see if any of that "greatness" comes out in her bloodline.

26 Apr 2012 3:03 PM
Ra1nmaker

Geronim2123 writes:

< Bode has a higher standard to live up to as the favorite. I am sorry if doing what horseplayers have done for years (picking at the M/L favorite) bothers you. Don't marry a horse before the derby...>

Pick away! It's no bother. I, too, plan to find good value, come derby day, though I can't envision *divorcing* Bodemeister from the top of my tickets.

That Bodemeister may be the morning line favorite, means little to me. Months ago I formed a good opinion of the colt's chances.

As early as 2-13-2012, I blogged:

"Watch Bodemeister." (plus a few others, no longer available.)

On March 9, 2012, I posted:

"I'm looking for Bodemeister to get a stalking postion, cruise to the front, build up a cushion, fend off charges, then move clear for the win."

(...replete with timestsmp)

Sound familiar?  If anything, my instinct is to *bail,* now that Bodemeister's become popular. But why?

26 Apr 2012 3:54 PM
El Kabong

It Ain't Easy being good,

Add Dullahan to the list of 2 9F starts in this field. DNB looks like he want more distance. Another fine Turf/Syn/Dirt horse who is coming around at the right time.

26 Apr 2012 4:13 PM
Criminal Type

Billy's, I am hoping your speaking metaphorically about Creative Cause puking when he came off the track after his last work. It is physically impossible for horses to throw up, so if what your saying is fact, something is horribly wrong with him besides the fact that everytime I've seen this horse he has been wired for sound. I am beginning to think he might be something of a headcase. I just watched them schooling in the paddock at HP and he looked a little crazy, jumping, bucking & rearing.

Also I thought it was interesting that Brother Bird (half to Dullahan and Mine that Bird) won his race at Pimlico this afternoon.

26 Apr 2012 5:20 PM
Carlos in Cali

Pine_Bluff_987,

The not having won a 2-turn Gr.I angle is a wordplay on Draynay's M.O., I'm not that shallow.

Mary Zinke,

I like your style.. potty-mouth and all. How many Eunuchs do you have guarding your lair is what I wanna' know.. you Dragon-Lady.

26 Apr 2012 6:22 PM
furlongs

Draynay,

I will start listening to you when you stop touting horses such as Uncle Mo wins the triple Crown, Uncle Mo wins the Classic, Quality Road wins the classic. When you step up like a MAN and stop boxing 5 horses in a 7 horse field, and most of all stop running your mouth about how good Union rags is much the best but you wont take a stand and single him at the top of your tri's... at least my sister goes to the track and takes a horse she thinks is "much better" and keys it first and second on some horses. I mean your such a hypocrite!! You rag on Bode (which by the way I think has a ton of talent but in no way am I saying he has to win the Ky Derby) for a 25 quarter he ran and yet few years back you said BIG BROWN had to win and he was running slower fractions in a FL Derby that was as bad if not worse then the ARK Derby field! LOL still think its funny you bet Lucas in a Grade 1 Race!! BTW he is like 0 for his last 90 or so Grade 1 races! You not even the master of your own domain much less the Ky Derby bud...I know why you want to box horses in the KY Derby and not take a stand cause there is no one in the race that is 7-5! If Union Rags was undefeated and 7-5 in the Derby you would be singling him on top of tri's and super's and betting your big $2000 to win on him!! Btw still waiting to see that so called $2000 you bet on Uncle Mo in the BC Classic!! Yeah right you never bet $2000 to win on any horse, ever! Your nothing more then a $1 tri box gambler that never loses when you do not post your picks and when you do post them everyone gets to watch you flame and burn it up on nothing but losers. Do yourself a favor stop posting your picks on here that way you can come on here daily and tell us about how much you killed them again! lol Be a man step up and key your super horse (rags) or sit down and be quiet!!!

26 Apr 2012 7:45 PM
Coldfacts

It aint easy being good!

“So with the latter part being true how can you not love DNB who ran 5 seconds faster in his last prep?”

Daddy Nose Best defeated Lucky Chappy by a nose in EL CAMINO REAL DERBY. Would Lucky Chappy be a serious contender in the 2012 Derby? He then went to the Sunland Derby and defeated Isn’t He Clever. You will note he took forever and a day to get by him and Isn’t He Clever appeared much stronger in the gallop out. Daddy Nose Best is a grinder as opposed to Done Talking who is a dead closer. Daddy Nose Best Derby profile is not very strong. His dam was sired by Derby winner Thunder Gulch. Derby winners are notoriously poor Derby broodmare sires. The last Derby winner that was a Derby broodmare sire was Count Fleet. This occurred in 1965, 46 long years ago.

The ill fate filly Eight Belles was sired by Unbridled Song a son the great Unbridled. Her dam was sired by Dixieland Band. Done Talking was sired by Broken Vow a son the great Unbridled. His dam was also sired by Dixieland Band. So what do we have? Daddy Nose Best whose dam sire falls into a category that produced one Derby winner in 46 years and Done Talking whose dam sire is the most successful during this period. Time is only important when one is either incarcerated or is facing same. Done Talking has a significantly better Derby Profile and is the better router.

If you like Daddy Nose Best do not be deterred by the above. It’s a horse race.

26 Apr 2012 9:33 PM
Mary Zinke

C.I.C.

Media verdad--dragon dama.

Creo que he perdido un stud guardia recientemente.

Desea rellenar esta apertura?

For the others to read, I agree w/you about THAS.

hay muchos celosos aqui, no?

26 Apr 2012 9:41 PM
Mary

TO ALL, THERE IS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT UNION RAGS WILL WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY, followed by Take Charge Indy and Mark Valeski.  Of course, I may change my mind on the last two, depending on their post positions and works.

26 Apr 2012 9:47 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Minnesota Kid, furlongs and jayjay

   Excellent, on the money posts, and funny too, but for your information Draynay has lost even more money playing blackjack and grabass than he has at the races. So there.

26 Apr 2012 10:04 PM
KY VET

JAYJAY......WE get IT! draynat sucks! AND you dont handicap...you guess....you are the best "guesser" on this blog....WEEEEEEEEEEEE! every post is the same....HE's an idiot...get over it!

26 Apr 2012 11:11 PM
Coldfacts

On March 23, 2012 Mr. Shandler profiled The Tampa Derby winner is a post titled “Derby Sleeper - Prospective.” Most of his regular supporters were not overly impressed with the son Of Malibu Moon. His record and Derby Profile is one of the most intriguing of all assembled to exit the gates on May 5th. I have already specified that Alpha is my selection to win the Derby. In fact, he is the only betting interest on which I placed a wager in the Derby Future Pools.  Prospective has since emerged as a colt that has captivated my attention. Why I am I captivated? The data below tells the story:

Mine That Bird: Won Grey stakes and then contested then Breeder Cup Juvenile where he finished last. Although not winning a single Derby prep, he backed in the Derby because of scratches and won by the biggest margin in the last 50 years. Prospective also Grey stakes then contested the Breeder Cup Juvenile where he also finished last. He has won one Derby prep and place in another.

Musket Man Won the Pasco S, Tampa Bay Derby and finished 3rd in the Sam F. Davis S Derby and finished 3rd in the Sam F. Davis S. He went on to win the insignificant IL Derby and finished third in the KD. Prospective won the Pasco S, Tampa Bay Derby and finished 2nd in the Sam F. Davis S

Street Sense: Won the Tampa Bay Derby and finished 2nd in the Bluegrass. He went on to win the Derby with only two starts as a 3YO. Prospective won Tampa Bay Derby and finished 6th in the Bluegrass

Raise A Native: Won four races at two and was retired due to injury. He never race beyond 51/2F. He sired Derby, Preakness winner and Belmont runner up Majestic Prince. He also sired Alydar the only horse to finish 2nd in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Perspective’s sire Malibu Moon made two starts at two and was retired due to injury.  He never race beyond 51/2F. He has sired exceptional routers Devil May Care, Ask the Moon, Life at Ten, Eden's Moon and champion Declan's Moon.

Awesome Again: Prospective's dam sire won many rout races including the BCC. He is the only BCC winner that has sired a BCC winner i.e., Ghostzapper. He has sired exceptional female routers Round Pond, Spun Sugar, and Ginger Punch. Awesome Again was sired by Deputy Minister who was broodmare sire of three Belmont winners and a Preakness.

Perspective’s profile embodies a host of positive and one major negative. He has tactical speed and should have no problems with the Derby distance with A P Indy as his grand sire and Deputy Minister as grand dam sire. His one major negative stems from the fact, that no horse that has finished worst than 4th has won the Derby in the last 25 years; Prospective finished 6th in the Bluegrass Stakes. The connections of the colt have recently stated that he loves the surface at CD and is training very well over it. They made the similar claim prior to the BCJ where he finished last.

In spite of the major negative could this colt be the 2012 Derby winner hidden in plain sight?  He will be one of the colts in my wagers

26 Apr 2012 11:26 PM
It aint easy being good!

Coldfacts you are thinking to much. I have three horses to bet this year you should listen to me because I dont like any of your horses. This year just listen to me! Pick dullahan why because romans is raving about him he trains at churchill and is a grown ass man this year. Has a perfect senario I see him hooking up with GEM in the stretch but Dullahan is too much horse. Think about this you stated earlier that MTB won by almost 6 lengths in the derby and is half brother to dullahan but you wont even give him any love. Dullahan is a BEAST!!!! I repeat straight up BEAST!

27 Apr 2012 12:40 AM
Coldfacts

I am perplexed by the time recorded (1:53.88) in the 2012 IL Derby. Could there have been some malfunction of the timing apparatus?  It just does not seem realistic that the race could run that slowly. As usual when I am concerned I draw on the Cold Facts: Below are the slowest time recorded for the major 9F Derby preps between 2007 & 2011:

2010 - Connemara: EL CAMINO REAL DERBY 1:51.26 (DNS)

2008- Colonel John: Sham Stakes 1:50.15 (KD 6th)

2011- Joe Vann: IL Derby 1:51.91 (DNS)

2007- Tiago: SA Derby (S) 1:49.51 (KD 7th)

2008- Tale Of Ekati; Wood Memorial 1:52.35 (KD 4th)

2011- Dialed In: FL Derby 1:50.07 (KD 8th)

2007- Street Sense: Bluegrass 1:51.33 (KD 1st)

2007 - Curlin: AK Derby 1:50.09 (KD 3rd)

2011- Animal Kingdom; LE/Spiral 1:52.32 (KD 1st)

2011- Soldat: FOY 1:50.23 (KD 11th)

2010- Mission Impazible; LA Derby 1:50.32 (KD 9th)

2011- Twice The Appeal: Sunland Derby 1:50.91 (KD 10th)

Both Street Sense  and Animal Kingdom exited the slowest run Spiral & Bluegrass in the 5 years between 2007-2011 and went on to win their Derbies. What does this indicate? Slow times do not mean that a particular horse cannot run faster at a different track and on different surface. Handicappers are shackled by times but horses are not.

27 Apr 2012 12:59 AM
Ra1nmaker

Coldfacts,

< ...could this colt be the 2012 Derby winner hidden in plain sight?  He will be one of the colts in my wagers >

Mine too, though I'll take a stand against him for the top spot.

Propective is one who should easily outrun his odss (and he could be a sensational price).

27 Apr 2012 2:32 AM
Union Buster

Union Buster you have no idea what you are talking about and your screen name is just sad.  Cheer your horse on loser don't root against another.  Rookie.

Draynay 26 Apr 2012 11:31 AM

I was talking about how you made the claim no horse ever had gained on "rags" in the stretch while you ignored the true fact that Dullahan did just that in the Juvenile.

My analysis that union on the rags will not win the Derby is not cheering against him. No cheer just fact. Come back on May 6 and tell me different. Even you won't be able to spin the fact that rags lost.

How about a little wager between us? Do you have the cajones? If "rags" wins I'll never come back to this blog and if he doesn't you do the same.

27 Apr 2012 9:01 AM
plodderman

Dray: Blackjack/poker/racing....The only three games where knowledge can turn the table on the odds and win. I've seen win after win after win from you posted. You should do this professionally.

27 Apr 2012 10:05 AM
plodderman

Food for thought......... 11 of the last 20 Derby winners had their highest Beyer in their Derby prep race. Union Rags, Dray?????

27 Apr 2012 10:06 AM
Draynay

Some of you need to follow the example of Coldfacts and just get over the fact that I know more than you do.  He lives with it and so should you.  This much I know for sure.  Bode isn't going to hit the board.  Trinni will run him into the ground and those extra 8 pounds will not be his friend.  Union and DNB will be going right by him at the mile pole as he throws anchor.  Like I said if it comes up wet it will be a run away for Union.

27 Apr 2012 10:40 AM
It aint easy being good!

Coldfacts when is the last time the winner from the Illinios derby has hit the board? I bet on American Lion and lost a ton...the illinois derby doesnt produce derby winners. Going back to your post those horses that you mentioned have had a beyer of at least a 90.. Your boy Done talking ran a 86 you think he is going to jump up 16 beyer points in 3 weeks get real! If it down pours on Saturday then I might throw 2 bucks on him just for you!  

27 Apr 2012 10:54 AM
Draynay

plodderman you and most are all talk my horse to win the Derby is Union Rags based on my expert opinion and my ability to pick talent.  If you think you are better step up and name a horse and I will bet you or anyone else he finishes in front of them.  Step up hero...or is that 0 ?

27 Apr 2012 12:52 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

Keep it up. While I feel you may be reaching with both of those horses, you have made good points and your theories are a good read. Like some of the others, I do like Dullahan, but the search for exotics goes on and I respect your ability to spot a needle in the hay stack-Shackleford for instance-And if there's one thing I do know about wagering this race, no matter how right your handicapping can be, wagering is another ball game. It helps to consider the view point of someone seeing things differently and we all know we can count on you for that. Thanks.  

27 Apr 2012 1:15 PM
Carlos in Cali

Claro que si,cuando tu quieres.Aqui estoy para servir te como necesitas.

27 Apr 2012 4:11 PM
El Kabong

Carlos, or should I say Jambi

You are a bad Genie, get back in your jeweled box. lol.

27 Apr 2012 4:45 PM
Mary Zinke

Carlos, I'll keep you on file for that position. Gracias.

27 Apr 2012 6:09 PM
5stardayy

hey we blogging FRIDAY/SATURDAY JAY??  I mean chat.

27 Apr 2012 6:10 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay UR's work today is not anything like Barbaros.This is a late running colts workout,not a workout like Barbaros in 46 flat.

28 Apr 2012 10:39 AM
Draynay

Chief, his work was a bullet on a deep track that no other horse came close to.  Again you have proven you know nothing.  Pick a horse put up your 100 bucks or just step away quietly and head back to your backgammon game.

28 Apr 2012 2:37 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Draynay what are you talking about you quit making picks.You dont know more than I know, and I am sure about that.You talk a big game.BTW unless they are crediting him with the top work(his was 3rd best)its not the BULLET.I dont play backgammon.

28 Apr 2012 6:47 PM
Age of Reason

Draynay a "Derby Master"? Let's see him actually pick a Derby winner winner (BEFORE the race) prior to that kind of ego talk. Heck, even I had Street Sense...

28 Apr 2012 10:10 PM
predict

Trinniberg, looks to be a much improved horse this year, than as a two year old, when he loss to Secret Circle and Union Rags. I believe Martinez is a better match for him, for he has learned to how to relax and extend his stride. He is moving with one of the best strides I have seen, it looks effortless and very smooth while he looks as he could run much further than he has been running. Maybe this is why his connections have decided to give him a try at the Derby. I believe if he gets an easy lead he might just stay around alot longer than most might expect, totally running the likes of Hansen and Union Rags into the ground, and then maybe going all the way to the winner's circle.  

29 Apr 2012 1:48 AM
Rinzler

Doesn't really matter. It isn't

really prudent to handicap now

at this time. Sure, it's nice that

you can handicap early with the PPs

and make a pick. But I doubt that

you can seriously make a choice

so soon without the post positions.

Under normal circumstances you

can do that in a normal field of 14

knowing that all posts are viable.

Seriously, if a very bad post would

deter you from your pick, then why

insist on handicapping now for

contenders without having that

knowledge in the first place?

29 Apr 2012 9:13 AM
JayJay

Draynay : We have given in to the fact that you don't know anything, we just tolerate your mambo jumbo babble because we understand now that you have no idea how to handicap a race.  We have accepted the fact that you know nothing.  You're just someone we (except for a few) like to make fun of here, at least I do.  

I noticed the challenge that Union Buster issue to you, if UR is such a monster, guaranteed winner of the KY Derby, why don't you accept the challenge and stop ignoring it ?  Man up and take the challenge.  I'll bet you'll just ignore it because just like us, you have accepted the fact tht UR will not win.  Like I said, you'll be on gemologist back all next week.  LOL, you're a joke.

29 Apr 2012 12:17 PM
Ranagulzion

Billy's Empire,

Great call with To Honor and Serve in the Westchester. He does look like one of the elite ones for this season. I'll have to see him beat Caleb's Posse in the Met Mile though. That race has CP's name written on the trophy.

29 Apr 2012 6:20 PM
Draynay

Jayjay you're the joke and don't even know it.  Put up or shut up... you and furlong.  I take Union Rags you and furlong pick a horse for 100 bucks.  Union will finish in front of any horse you pick.  Come on step up or shut up.

29 Apr 2012 6:37 PM
JayJay

Draynay : Send the money to Jason and prove you actually have money to bet.  You pick nothing but losers so far so step up or go away, you're like a mosquito in a swamp.  All  you make are buzzing noise, you're worse than a first time bettor.  At least they hit on beginner's luck.  You have no knowledge of this game.  Stick with Quarter Horses, it's a short field and half the field is chalk LOL but I bet you'd pick the wrong chalk and still lose.  HAHAHAHA

Send the money to Jason already and man up, stop with this babbling already.  We already know you're going to be on Gemologist before the derby runs.   Once Jason confirms he has your $100.00, then i'll post my horse after Wednesday. I have no confidence that you actually have REAL money to bet me.  I bet that 6 horse superfecta box is bet on virtual money lol.  You do know what virtual means right ?  It's NOT real.

You're ignoring Union Buster's challenge again, you do this all the time.  When someone issues a challenge to you, you try to focus the blog to other people because you don't have the cajones to take the challenge.  You're a joke.

30 Apr 2012 2:50 AM
Weekend

Ranag, thanks. I typically never bet a Mott horse off of a layoff, but this is a nice colt. Should be a great race in the Met Mile.

30 Apr 2012 8:35 AM
Draynay

Jason has my 100 where is yours Jayjay ?  Come on chicken pick a horse so I can laugh.

30 Apr 2012 2:18 PM
Ted from LA

The last word.

23 May 2012 5:34 PM

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